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"https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/her-way-out-merkel-could-set-stage-germany-even-more-progressive-climate-partner", "https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/beijing-olympics-boycott-unlikely-canadian-political-parties-1.6139647", "https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/08/poll-shows-majority-of-canadians-wants-beijing-olympics-boycott/", "https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/us-lawmakers-urge-ioc-delay-or-move-chinas-2022-winter-olympics-2021-07-23/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewelinaochab/2021/07/10/first-the-european-parliament-now-the-british-parliament-to-vote-to-boycott-winter-olympics-2022/?sh=62d65c7e70d4", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4217931", "https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Xinjiang-Business-Advisory-13July2021-1.pdf", "https://www.history.com/news/olympic-boycotts", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewelinaochab/2021/07/10/first-the-european-parliament-now-the-british-parliament-to-vote-to-boycott-winter-olympics-2022/", "https://www.ifop.com/publication/les-francais-et-le-boycott-des-jeux-olympiques-de-pekin/", "https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/us-policy-options-the-2022-beijing-winter-olympics", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/germanys-merkel-hopes-g7-infrastructure-plans-2022-2021-06-13/", "https://www.axios.com/china-uyghur-olympics-ioc-f841758d-771f-4c9c-ad51-65d10f581fc7.html", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57899915", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/09/eu-votes-diplomats-boycott-china-winter-olympics-human-rights-abuses", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1310039", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4245607"] | binary | [["2021-04-20", 0.095], ["2021-04-20", 0.1067], ["2021-04-20", 0.098], ["2021-04-20", 0.0871], ["2021-04-20", 0.0811], ["2021-04-21", 0.1273], ["2021-04-21", 0.1654], ["2021-04-21", 0.1667], ["2021-04-21", 0.1806], ["2021-04-21", 0.1668], ["2021-04-21", 0.1605], ["2021-04-21", 0.1748], ["2021-04-22", 0.2048], ["2021-04-22", 0.1956], 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https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/127 | <p><b>Related question. </b>A <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics" target="_blank">related question</a> on Good Judgment Open asks about the chance of a U.S. boycott.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to occur in Beijing between February 4 and 20, 2022.</p><p>In recent months, countries, companies, and athletes have faced rising pressure to boycott the Beijing Olympics because of China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/beijing-olympics-calls-for-boycotts-grow-but-china-seen-retaliating.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2021/03/27/will-countries-boycott-chinas-olympics-in-2022" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/06/mps-urge-british-olympians-to-boycott-2022-beijing-winter-games" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). More than 180 organizations have called to boycott the Beijing Olympics (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55938034" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2021/03/27/will-countries-boycott-chinas-olympics-in-2022" target="_blank">Economist</a>). Tensions rose further following sanctions by the UK, U.S., Canada, and the EU against China for "serious human rights abuses" (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/22/politics/us-eu-china-uyghur-sanctions/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The Biden administration has floated the idea of a boycott (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/92d57e46-4c63-46f2-be08-de8a9954256e" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">Financial Times</a>) and has reportedly discussed a joint boycott with U.S. allies (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-winter-olympics-boycotts-beijing-2020-tokyo-olympics-a0defdcf7468519da87255c2a383d6fd" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">AP News</a>).</p><p>Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (<a href="https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world" target="_blank">Montreal Gazette</a>, <a target="_blank">History.com</a>). The U.S boycotted the Moscow Olympics to protest the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and sixty-five nations refused to participate in the games (<a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">U.S State Gov</a>). Most of the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa boycotted the Summer Olympics in Montreal to protest the attendance of New Zealand after the latter sent its rugby team to play against the team from apartheid South Africa (<a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">U.S State Gov</a>).</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or an official announcement that a G7 country is boycotting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-08-27 | Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? | cset | 0 |
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0.1622], ["2022-06-24", 0.1702], ["2022-06-25", 0.1736], ["2022-06-25", 0.1671], ["2022-06-25", 0.1584], ["2022-06-26", 0.1443], ["2022-06-26", 0.1412], ["2022-06-26", 0.1353], ["2022-06-27", 0.1222], ["2022-06-27", 0.1204], ["2022-06-28", 0.1198], ["2022-06-29", 0.118], ["2022-06-29", 0.116], ["2022-06-29", 0.1112], ["2022-06-30", 0.1081], ["2022-06-30", 0.1086], ["2022-07-01", 0.1029], ["2022-07-01", 0.1015], ["2022-07-01", 0.1011], ["2022-07-03", 0.0989], ["2022-07-03", 0.0977], ["2022-07-04", 0.0953], ["2022-07-04", 0.0928], ["2022-07-05", 0.0892], ["2022-07-05", 0.0885], ["2022-07-06", 0.0908], ["2022-07-06", 0.0987], ["2022-07-06", 0.1111], ["2022-07-07", 0.1156], ["2022-07-07", 0.1292], ["2022-07-08", 0.1372], ["2022-07-08", 0.1508], ["2022-07-09", 0.1537], ["2022-07-09", 0.1643], ["2022-07-10", 0.1623], ["2022-07-10", 0.1607], ["2022-07-10", 0.1588], ["2022-07-10", 0.161], ["2022-07-10", 0.1663], ["2022-07-11", 0.1697], ["2022-07-14", 0.1706], ["2022-07-14", 0.1769], ["2022-07-15", 0.1808], ["2022-07-16", 0.1843], ["2022-07-17", 0.1842], ["2022-07-17", 0.1927], ["2022-07-17", 0.192], ["2022-07-17", 0.1907], ["2022-07-18", 0.1906], ["2022-07-18", 0.1898], ["2022-07-19", 0.1881], ["2022-07-19", 0.1918], ["2022-07-20", 0.1883], ["2022-07-20", 0.186], ["2022-07-20", 0.1845], ["2022-07-21", 0.185], ["2022-07-21", 0.1847], ["2022-07-21", 0.1935], ["2022-07-21", 0.1944], ["2022-07-22", 0.1927], ["2022-07-23", 0.1908], ["2022-07-23", 0.1951], ["2022-07-23", 0.1977], ["2022-07-23", 0.1959], ["2022-07-23", 0.2024], ["2022-07-23", 0.2189], ["2022-07-23", 0.2319], ["2022-07-23", 0.262], ["2022-07-23", 0.2855], ["2022-07-23", 0.2992]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/162 | <p><b>Context. </b>The International Health Regulations (2005) empower the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees" target="_blank">Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)</a>, defined as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response." An<a href="https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/international-health-regulations/event-reporting-and-review/reporting-events/ihr-committees/ihr-emergency-committee" target="_blank"> IHR Emergency Committee</a> comprising a panel of experts advises the WHO Director-General on potential PHEICs. The WHO Director-General makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.</p><p>Since 2007, the WHO has <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/8/taaa227/6025447" target="_blank">made six PHEIC declarations</a>: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013–2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018–2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present).</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official declaration by the WHO. </p><p><b>Why does this question close so soon?</b> We will soon implement a new rolling-risk format on Foretell. Questions of this form will ask about the likelihood of an event within a set period of time, e.g., 12 months. Such questions could remain active indefinitely. When that format is available, this question will be re-published in that format.</p><p><b>***</b></p><p>This question was proposed by P Alex Demarsh (palexd).</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-23 | Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? | cset | 1 |
2022-01-04 | 2021-06-24 | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/bitcoin-no-threat-to-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency-feds-james-bullard.html", "https://www.cryptoninjas.net/2021/07/27/countries-considering-bitcoin-as-legal-tender/", "https://remitr.com/blog/top-10-most-traded-currencies-2020/", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/17407", "http://www.diputados.gov.py/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2021/06/07/el-salvador-to-make-bitcoin-legal-tender-a-milestone-in-monetary-history/", "https://www.coindesk.com/uruguay-crypto-bill-legal-tender-juan-sartori", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/16506", "https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57507386", "https://www.ft.com/content/c36c45d2-1100-4756-a752-07a217b2bde0", "https://www.cityam.com/more-countries-line-up-to-make-bitcoin-legal-tender-which-one-will-be-next/", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-vs-fiat-global-finance-2050-crypto-experts-finder-2021-7", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2021/06/09/el-salvador-enacts-bitcoin-law-ushering-in-new-era-of-global-monetary-inclusion/", "https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/06/12/bitcoin-is-el-salvador-the-first-domino-to-fall-as-latin-america-embraces-cryptocurrencies", "https://cointelegraph.com/news/uruguay-senator-introduces-bill-to-enable-use-of-crypto-for-payments", "https://icefi.org/sites/default/files/icefi_-_02-2021_-_implicaciones_fiscales_por_la_adopcion_del_bitcoin_en_el_salvador_-_web.pdf", "https://fortune.com/2021/06/28/free-bitcoin-legal-tender-el-salvador-mexico-panama-how-can-i-use-spend-crypto-uses/", "https://www.asamblea.gob.pa/diputados", "https://blogs.imf.org/2021/07/26/cryptoassets-as-national-currency-a-step-too-far/", "https://www.facebook.com/carlitosrejalah/videos/957841688336668", "https://www.wired.com/story/el-salvador-bitcoin-race/", "https://www.coindesk.com/el-salvador-bitcoin-law-survey-disruptiva", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/15/el-salvador-bitcoin-official-currency-printing-money/", "https://news.bitcoin.com/paraguayan-lawmakers-present-a-very-different-bitcoin-bill-than-expected/", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/17219"] | binary | [["2021-06-24", 0.15], ["2021-06-24", 0.235], ["2021-06-24", 0.39], ["2021-06-24", 0.3925], ["2021-06-24", 0.416], ["2021-06-24", 0.48], ["2021-06-24", 0.3967], ["2021-06-24", 0.4543], ["2021-06-25", 0.4988], ["2021-06-25", 0.4767], ["2021-06-25", 0.484], ["2021-06-25", 0.499], ["2021-06-25", 0.469], ["2021-06-25", 0.49], ["2021-06-25", 0.4992], ["2021-06-25", 0.4862], ["2021-06-25", 0.455], ["2021-06-25", 0.4247], ["2021-06-25", 0.3981], ["2021-06-25", 0.3982], ["2021-06-25", 0.4011], ["2021-06-25", 0.4021], ["2021-06-25", 0.4045], ["2021-06-26", 0.4186], ["2021-06-26", 0.4109], ["2021-06-26", 0.4148], ["2021-06-26", 0.4308], ["2021-06-27", 0.4558], ["2021-06-27", 0.4821], ["2021-06-27", 0.4765], ["2021-06-28", 0.4738], ["2021-06-28", 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0.2491], ["2021-08-16", 0.2504], ["2021-08-16", 0.2468], ["2021-08-17", 0.2468], ["2021-08-17", 0.2415], ["2021-08-17", 0.2415]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/163 | <p><b>Context. </b>On June 9, 2021, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-09/el-salvador-president-says-nation-adopts-bitcoin-as-legal-tender" target="_blank">the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, announced</a> that the Salvadoran Congress had voted to make Bitcoin legal tender. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_tender" target="_blank">Legal tender </a>is money that courts of law are required to recognize as satisfactory payment for a monetary debt. </p><p>Making cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, legal tender <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-other-countries-follow-el-salvador-into-making-bitcoin-a-legal-tender-2021-06-09" target="_blank">has several benefits</a> for developing countries without sophisticated financial systems. For one, it makes their economy less vulnerable to inflation caused by the actions of other country's central banks. Bukele cited recent actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve as one of the motivations for El Salvador's new law. Second, it makes it easier to send money without having a bank account. El Salvadorans living outside the country sent $5.92 billion to friends and family in El Salvador in 2020. <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-other-countries-follow-el-salvador-into-making-bitcoin-a-legal-tender-2021-06-09" target="_blank">According to Bukele</a>, "a big chunk of those 6 billion dollars is lost to intermediaries." Third, it makes their economy more attractive to crypto entrepreneurs. </p><p>There are risks, however. According to <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/bitcoin-currency-legal-tender-salvador-b1862655.html" target="_blank">The Independent</a>, "Speculation within bitcoin forums and among crypto commentators on Twitter is that the US could target El Salvador with sanctions, as it represents a threat to the strength of the US dollar - the other official currency of the country. One way to potentially mitigate against this risk would be for countries that accept bitcoin as legal tender to form an economic alliance."</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/carlitosrejala/status/1401712725886132224" target="_blank">Paraguay</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/gabrielsilva8_7/status/1401965129051389958" target="_blank">Panama</a> appear closest to making Bitcoin legal tender, with politicians in both countries claiming they will introduce legislation similar to El Savador's. <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/bitcoin-currency-legal-tender-salvador-b1862655.html" target="_blank">The Independent </a>states that "elected officials in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua have all spoken favourably about bitcoin, with some pledging to introduce legislation that is favourable to cryptocurrencies."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media reporting that a country other than El Salvador has taken the legal steps necessary to make Bitcoin legal tender. The question resolves positively if the legal steps, such as legislative approval of a new law, are completed by December 31, 2021, even if the law would not go into effect until a later date.</p><p>***</p><p>This question was proposed by Mauricio_B. </p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-08-17 | Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? | cset | 0 |
2022-05-25 | 2021-06-24 | ["https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4252035", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/a-far-flung-taiwan-island-risks-triggering-a-u-s-china-clash", "https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-world-bf304059-dddb-494f-8723-d857970264eb.html", "https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/china-feiert-100-jahre-kommunistische-partei-xi-jinping-droht-nicht-nur-taiwan-a-614004e4-01ca-4ed5-b693-523140cc8790", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/16534", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/10217", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/china-could-invade-taiwan-in-next-six-years-top-us-admiral-warns", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1229616.shtml", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/10845", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-07/why-china-keeps-sending-warplanes-to-fly-near-taiwan-quicktake", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/12/china-military-drove-away-us-warship-in-south-china-sea", "https://www.army-technology.com/projects/zbd-05-amphibious-infantry-fighting-vehicle/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Blue_Coalition", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expeditionary_Fighting_Vehicle#Personnel_variant", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/16454", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228954.shtml", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/china-looks-ahead-to-20th-party-congress-in-2022/", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/10389"] | binary | [["2021-06-24", 0.15], ["2021-06-24", 0.17], ["2021-06-24", 0.13], ["2021-06-24", 0.1225], ["2021-06-24", 0.102], ["2021-06-24", 0.1017], ["2021-06-24", 0.0986], ["2021-06-25", 0.0963], ["2021-06-25", 0.0878], ["2021-06-25", 0.084], ["2021-06-25", 0.081], ["2021-06-25", 0.0764], ["2021-06-25", 0.0717], ["2021-06-25", 0.0777], ["2021-06-25", 0.0746], ["2021-06-25", 0.0714], ["2021-06-25", 0.0687], ["2021-06-26", 0.0675], ["2021-06-26", 0.0653], ["2021-06-26", 0.0628], ["2021-06-26", 0.0606], ["2021-06-26", 0.0626], ["2021-06-26", 0.062], ["2021-06-27", 0.0614], ["2021-06-27", 0.0484], ["2021-06-27", 0.0406], ["2021-06-27", 0.0388], ["2021-06-28", 0.0394], ["2021-06-28", 0.04], ["2021-06-28", 0.0395], ["2021-06-28", 0.0395], ["2021-06-28", 0.0425], ["2021-06-28", 0.0425], ["2021-06-28", 0.041], ["2021-06-28", 0.0405], ["2021-06-28", 0.04], ["2021-06-28", 0.04], ["2021-06-28", 0.0404], ["2021-06-28", 0.0396], ["2021-06-28", 0.0396], ["2021-06-29", 0.04], ["2021-06-29", 0.0384], ["2021-06-29", 0.0381], ["2021-06-29", 0.0465], ["2021-06-30", 0.0456], ["2021-06-30", 0.0446], ["2021-06-30", 0.0441], ["2021-06-30", 0.0717], ["2021-06-30", 0.0693], ["2021-06-30", 0.0677], ["2021-06-30", 0.0716], ["2021-06-30", 0.0706], ["2021-06-30", 0.07], ["2021-07-01", 0.0703], ["2021-07-01", 0.08], ["2021-07-01", 0.08], ["2021-07-01", 0.0791], ["2021-07-02", 0.0826], ["2021-07-02", 0.0834], ["2021-07-02", 0.0825], ["2021-07-02", 0.0811], ["2021-07-02", 0.0797], ["2021-07-02", 0.0795], ["2021-07-03", 0.0784], ["2021-07-03", 0.0772], ["2021-07-03", 0.0764], ["2021-07-04", 0.0764], ["2021-07-05", 0.0764], ["2021-07-05", 0.0785], ["2021-07-07", 0.0792], ["2021-07-08", 0.08], ["2021-07-08", 0.0793], ["2021-07-09", 0.0818], ["2021-07-09", 0.0822], ["2021-07-09", 0.0829], ["2021-07-10", 0.0829], ["2021-07-11", 0.0821], ["2021-07-12", 0.0809], ["2021-07-12", 0.0807], ["2021-07-12", 0.0812], ["2021-07-12", 0.0816], ["2021-07-13", 0.0819], ["2021-07-13", 0.0811], ["2021-07-13", 0.0805], ["2021-07-13", 0.0791], ["2021-07-14", 0.0789], ["2021-07-15", 0.0783], ["2021-07-15", 0.0767], ["2021-07-18", 0.0783], ["2021-07-18", 0.0777], ["2021-07-19", 0.0773], ["2021-07-20", 0.0758], ["2021-07-20", 0.076], ["2021-07-21", 0.076], ["2021-07-22", 0.0751], ["2021-07-23", 0.0738], ["2021-07-23", 0.0736], ["2021-07-24", 0.0725], ["2021-07-24", 0.0729], ["2021-07-24", 0.0729], ["2021-07-24", 0.0725], ["2021-07-25", 0.0722], ["2021-07-25", 0.0724], ["2021-07-25", 0.072], ["2021-07-25", 0.0718], ["2021-07-26", 0.072], ["2021-07-26", 0.0706], ["2021-07-26", 0.0712], ["2021-07-26", 0.0712], ["2021-07-26", 0.0673], ["2021-07-26", 0.0679], ["2021-07-26", 0.0681], ["2021-07-27", 0.0712], ["2021-07-27", 0.055], ["2021-07-27", 0.055], ["2021-07-27", 0.0554], ["2021-07-27", 0.0535], ["2021-07-27", 0.0533], ["2021-07-28", 0.0527], ["2021-07-28", 0.0521], ["2021-07-29", 0.0554], ["2021-07-29", 0.0483], ["2021-07-29", 0.0485], ["2021-07-30", 0.0481], ["2021-07-30", 0.0456], ["2021-07-30", 0.045], ["2021-07-30", 0.0464], ["2021-07-30", 0.0483], ["2021-07-30", 0.0479], ["2021-07-31", 0.0474], ["2021-07-31", 0.0476], ["2021-07-31", 0.0613], ["2021-07-31", 0.0616], ["2021-07-31", 0.0624], ["2021-07-31", 0.0615], ["2021-08-01", 0.0613], ["2021-08-01", 0.0604], ["2021-08-01", 0.0604]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/164 | <p><b>Related questions. </b>A version of this question asking about the chance of conflict before July 1, 2021 recently closed. You can view those forecasts <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea" target="_blank">CFR</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54605976" target="_blank">BBC</a>). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (<a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/6/taiwan-says-military-under-pressure-from-china-as-missions-mount" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2020/08/pla-covid-diplomacy" target="_blank">IISS</a>) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (<a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">Express</a>, <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). </p><p>In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (<a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Department of Defense</a>). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (<a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>). </p><p><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a> assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/chinas-military-incursions-around-taiwan-arent-a-sign-of-imminent-attack/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a> suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (<a href="https://amti.csis.org/itu-aba-island/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region. </p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Why does this question close so soon? </b>We will soon implement a new rolling-risk format on Foretell. Questions of this form will ask about the likelihood of an event within a set period of time, e.g., six months. Such questions could remain active indefinitely. When that format is available, this question will be re-published in that format.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-08-01 | Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? | cset | 0 |
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0.3879], ["2022-05-25", 0.3943], ["2022-05-26", 0.3972], ["2022-05-26", 0.3929], ["2022-05-26", 0.3938], ["2022-05-26", 0.3932], ["2022-05-26", 0.4004], ["2022-05-27", 0.4114], ["2022-05-27", 0.4125], ["2022-05-27", 0.4242], ["2022-05-27", 0.425], ["2022-05-28", 0.4329], ["2022-05-28", 0.4353], ["2022-05-29", 0.4349], ["2022-05-29", 0.4384], ["2022-05-29", 0.4427], ["2022-05-29", 0.4516], ["2022-05-29", 0.4581], ["2022-05-29", 0.4581], ["2022-05-29", 0.4712], ["2022-05-29", 0.4742], ["2022-05-29", 0.4752], ["2022-05-29", 0.4818], ["2022-05-29", 0.4819], ["2022-05-30", 0.5009], ["2022-05-30", 0.5094], ["2022-05-30", 0.5131], ["2022-05-30", 0.5325], ["2022-05-31", 0.5406], ["2022-05-31", 0.5509], ["2022-05-31", 0.5678], ["2022-05-31", 0.5829], ["2022-05-31", 0.5829]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/170 | <p><b>Related questions. </b>Metaculus has (now closed) questions on the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/" target="_blank">performance of the top supercomputer in 2022</a> and when the first <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/" target="_blank">exaFLOP supercomputer will appear</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b>According to the <a href="https://www.top500.org/system/179807/" target="_blank">Top500 list</a>, Japan's <a href="https://www.top500.org/system/179807/" target="_blank">Fugaku supercomputer</a> has been the world's fastest supercomputer since June 2020, with a maximum performance of 442,010 TFLOP/s, or nearly half <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exascale_computing#:~:text=Exascale%20computing%20refers%20to%20computing,second%20(1%20exaFLOPS).&text=Exascale%20also%20reaches%20the%20estimated,of%20the%20Human%20Brain%20Project." target="_blank">exascale</a>. The United States has two exascale supercomputers expected to be operational in 2021 or 2022. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Frontier supercomputer is <a href="https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/olcf-deputy-project-director-organizing-massive-effort-to-install-frontier-on-schedule/" target="_blank">scheduled for delivery in 2021, with full user operations in 2022</a>. Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora was originally expected to be the first of the two but due to <a href="https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/doe-confirms-aurora-delayed-frontier-will-be-first-exascale-supercomputer/" target="_blank">delays acquiring </a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/technology/intel-aurora-supercomputer.html" target="_blank">7nm chips</a> is now <a href="https://connectedworld.com/february-exascale-and-the-next-frontier-of-supercomputing/" target="_blank">expected by some</a> to debut in 2022.</p><p>China is also developing <a href="https://www.nextplatform.com/2021/02/10/a-sneak-peek-at-chinas-sunway-exascale-supercomputer/" target="_blank">three</a> <a href="https://www.nextplatform.com/2021/04/19/chinas-exascale-prototype-supercomputer-tests-ai-workloads/" target="_blank">exascale</a> supercomputers <a href="https://connectedworld.com/february-exascale-and-the-next-frontier-of-supercomputing/" target="_blank">expected by some to be operational in 2021-2022</a>. </p><p>In April 2021, the United States <a href="https://uk.pcmag.com/processors/132705/us-tries-to-thwart-chinas-work-on-exascale-supercomputer-by-blocking-exports" target="_blank">imposed export controls</a> on four supercomputer centers in China purportedly working on exascale machines, citing national security concerns. </p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on the maximum performance achieved using the LINPACK benchmark (rMax) according to the June 2022 <a href="https://www.top500.org/project/top500_description/" target="_blank">Top500 list</a>, which "shows the 500 most powerful commercially available computer systems known to us." The Top500 list publishes rankings in November and June every year. See <a href="https://www.top500.org/project/call-for-participation/" target="_blank">here</a> for more information about its methodology.</p><p>***</p><p>This question was suggested by Foretell pro forecaster Ryan Beck (<a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/memberships/1477" target="_blank">@RyanBeck</a>).</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-31 | Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? | cset | 1 |
2022-05-25 | 2021-07-27 | ["https://ecfr.eu/publication/fish-and-ships-chinese-fishing-and-europes-indo-pacific-strategy/", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231667.shtml", "https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/chinese-fishing-vessels-moored-at-whitsun-reef-disperse-to-nearby-areas", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-military-drills-near-taiwan-were-response-provocations-2021-08-17/", "https://bit.ly/3mNgFcj", "https://reut.rs/3kzGytr", "https://www.maritime-executive.com/index.php/article/the-u-s-and-china-tensions-rising-fast", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_South_China_Sea_dispute#2010", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-and-vietnam-conduct-naval-exercise-in-south-china-sea-ahead-of-the-quads-malabar-off-guam/articleshow/85429488.cms", "https://www.newsweek.com/china-warplane-fleet-enters-taiwans-air-defense-zone-after-two-month-lull-1618780", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1201451/china-patrols-disputed-waters-denies-firing-vietnamese-boat", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19781", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coastguard-law-idUSKBN29R1ER", "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-holds-military-exercises-in-south-china-sea/2340071", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-Asia-policy/Harris-tells-Vietnam-US-Navy-will-keep-presence-in-South-China-Sea", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coastguard-law/china-authorises-coast-guard-to-fire-on-foreign-vessels-if-needed-idUSKBN29R1ER", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3146050/taiwans-planned-us7-billion-missile-boost-may-push-pla-step", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-06/why-quad-alarms-china", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3146347/india-conducts-joint-naval-exercise-philippines-it-seeks?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/20367", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-19/philippines-challenges-chinese-warship-in-south-china-sea", "https://csis-ilab.github.io/cpower-viz/csis-china-sea/", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1218193.shtml", "https://bit.ly/3DwruW2", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/indonesian-warship-fires-on-foreign-fishing-boats-in-south-china-sea-1466350384"] | binary | [["2021-07-27", 0.05], ["2021-07-27", 0.275], ["2021-07-27", 0.2133], ["2021-07-27", 0.235], ["2021-07-27", 0.188], ["2021-07-27", 0.1683], ["2021-07-27", 0.1443], ["2021-07-27", 0.1388], ["2021-07-27", 0.1289], ["2021-07-27", 0.121], ["2021-07-27", 0.1145], ["2021-07-27", 0.11], ["2021-07-27", 0.1092], ["2021-07-27", 0.1136], ["2021-07-27", 0.1087], ["2021-07-27", 0.1075], ["2021-07-27", 0.1041], ["2021-07-27", 0.1539], ["2021-07-27", 0.1632], ["2021-07-27", 0.19], ["2021-07-27", 0.1829], ["2021-07-27", 0.1791], ["2021-07-27", 0.1735], ["2021-07-27", 0.1688], 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style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><b>Related questions. </b>This question was previously issued for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a> and the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>. The final crowd forecast was 11% for the first half of 2021 and 14% for the second half of 2021. A variation on this question was also issued for <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/28-will-there-be-an-incident-in-the-south-china-sea-in-which-the-chinese-military-fires-upon-a-civil-or-military-vessel-belonging-to-another-nation-by-september-30-2020" target="_blank">Summer 2020</a>. </p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas</span><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;">. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area. </span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;">Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;">***</span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;">This question is part of a forthcoming issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship.</span></span></span></p><ul>
</ul><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. </i><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:futura-pt;font-size:16pt;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent;"><br></span></span></span></span></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-08-31 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-12-17", 0.0755], ["2021-12-17", 0.0755], ["2021-12-20", 0.0755], ["2021-12-21", 0.0755], ["2021-12-21", 0.0758], ["2021-12-21", 0.0758], ["2021-12-22", 0.0758], ["2021-12-22", 0.0762], ["2021-12-22", 0.0762], ["2021-12-23", 0.0762], ["2021-12-25", 0.0758], ["2021-12-25", 0.0758], ["2021-12-25", 0.0749], ["2021-12-25", 0.0749], ["2021-12-26", 0.0752], ["2021-12-27", 0.0754], ["2021-12-29", 0.0754], ["2021-12-29", 0.0754], ["2021-12-31", 0.0754], ["2021-12-31", 0.0752], ["2021-12-31", 0.0751], ["2021-12-31", 0.0758], ["2021-12-31", 0.0758], ["2021-12-31", 0.0778], ["2021-12-31", 0.0778], ["2021-12-31", 0.0778], ["2022-01-01", 0.0765], ["2022-01-01", 0.0765], ["2022-01-01", 0.0768], ["2022-01-01", 0.0768], ["2022-01-01", 0.0768], ["2022-01-03", 0.0768], ["2022-01-03", 0.0756], ["2022-01-04", 0.0756], ["2022-01-04", 0.0756], ["2022-01-04", 0.0755], ["2022-01-05", 0.075], ["2022-01-07", 0.075], ["2022-01-09", 0.075], ["2022-01-09", 0.0743], ["2022-01-10", 0.0749], ["2022-01-11", 0.0749], ["2022-01-11", 0.0704], ["2022-01-12", 0.0704], ["2022-01-14", 0.0704], ["2022-01-15", 0.0704], ["2022-01-17", 0.0704]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/372 | <p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022" target="_blank">August 2021 through March 2022</a>. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021" target="_blank">variation on this question</a> with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.</p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
<p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech</a>, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">some</a> <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">media</a> reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. </p><p>Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/chinas-new-pressure-on-taiwan-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">appear to be </a>the <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drones-04072021180138.html" target="_blank">hot</a> <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/04/27/2003756422" target="_blank">battleground</a>. In its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Annual Report to Congress</a>, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba." In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands</a> to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. <i>Seizure</i> involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">this blog post</a>.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-17", 0.0638], ["2021-11-18", 0.0638], ["2021-11-18", 0.0638], ["2021-11-18", 0.0638], ["2021-11-18", 0.0638], ["2021-11-18", 0.0642], ["2021-11-19", 0.069], ["2021-11-19", 0.0698], ["2021-11-19", 0.068], ["2021-11-20", 0.0674], ["2021-11-20", 0.0726], ["2021-11-21", 0.0726], ["2021-11-22", 0.0682], ["2021-11-22", 0.0675], ["2021-11-23", 0.0673], ["2021-11-24", 0.0668], ["2021-11-24", 0.0676], ["2021-11-24", 0.0676], ["2021-11-25", 0.0676], ["2021-11-25", 0.0676], ["2021-11-26", 0.0671], ["2021-11-29", 0.0671], ["2021-11-29", 0.0671], ["2021-11-29", 0.0666], ["2021-11-29", 0.0666], ["2021-11-29", 0.0666], ["2021-11-29", 0.0663], ["2021-11-29", 0.0662], ["2021-11-29", 0.0659], ["2021-11-29", 0.0662], ["2021-11-30", 0.0662], ["2021-11-30", 0.0662], ["2021-11-30", 0.0673], ["2021-11-30", 0.053], ["2021-11-30", 0.0529], ["2021-11-30", 0.0527], ["2021-11-30", 0.0554], ["2021-11-30", 0.0519], ["2021-11-30", 0.0511], ["2021-11-30", 0.0511], ["2021-11-30", 0.0511], ["2021-11-30", 0.051], ["2021-12-01", 0.0552], ["2021-12-01", 0.0552], ["2021-12-01", 0.0559], ["2021-12-04", 0.0559], ["2021-12-05", 0.0552], ["2021-12-06", 0.0552], ["2021-12-06", 0.0545], ["2021-12-07", 0.055], ["2021-12-08", 0.0594], ["2021-12-08", 0.0594], ["2021-12-09", 0.0594], ["2021-12-11", 0.0594], ["2021-12-11", 0.0594], ["2021-12-12", 0.0595], ["2021-12-13", 0.0736], ["2021-12-14", 0.0736], ["2021-12-14", 0.0748], ["2021-12-14", 0.0748], ["2021-12-14", 0.0748], ["2021-12-14", 0.0753], ["2021-12-15", 0.0756], ["2021-12-15", 0.0759], ["2021-12-16", 0.0761], ["2021-12-16", 0.0754], ["2021-12-16", 0.0754], ["2021-12-17", 0.0754]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/372 | <p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022" target="_blank">August 2021 through March 2022</a>. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021" target="_blank">variation on this question</a> with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.</p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
<p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech</a>, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">some</a> <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">media</a> reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. </p><p>Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/chinas-new-pressure-on-taiwan-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">appear to be </a>the <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drones-04072021180138.html" target="_blank">hot</a> <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/04/27/2003756422" target="_blank">battleground</a>. In its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Annual Report to Congress</a>, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba." In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands</a> to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. <i>Seizure</i> involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">this blog post</a>.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-17", 0.0854], ["2021-11-18", 0.0854], ["2021-11-18", 0.0862], ["2021-11-18", 0.0855], ["2021-11-18", 0.0855], ["2021-11-19", 0.0858], ["2021-11-19", 0.0858], ["2021-11-19", 0.086], ["2021-11-20", 0.086], ["2021-11-20", 0.086], ["2021-11-20", 0.0855], ["2021-11-21", 0.0853], ["2021-11-21", 0.0852], ["2021-11-21", 0.0847], ["2021-11-22", 0.0847], ["2021-11-22", 0.0847], ["2021-11-22", 0.0844], ["2021-11-23", 0.0844], ["2021-11-23", 0.0867], ["2021-11-23", 0.0867], ["2021-11-24", 0.0867], ["2021-11-24", 0.0854], ["2021-11-25", 0.0838], ["2021-11-25", 0.0841], ["2021-11-26", 0.0841], ["2021-11-27", 0.0841], ["2021-11-29", 0.0841], ["2021-11-29", 0.0846], ["2021-11-29", 0.083], ["2021-11-29", 0.083], ["2021-11-29", 0.0825], ["2021-11-29", 0.082], ["2021-11-29", 0.081], ["2021-11-29", 0.0811], ["2021-11-29", 0.0811], ["2021-11-30", 0.0815], ["2021-11-30", 0.0815], ["2021-11-30", 0.0814], ["2021-11-30", 0.0811], ["2021-11-30", 0.081], ["2021-11-30", 0.0812], ["2021-12-01", 0.086], ["2021-12-01", 0.0867], ["2021-12-01", 0.0937], ["2021-12-01", 0.0937], ["2021-12-01", 0.0937], ["2021-12-01", 0.0937], ["2021-12-01", 0.096], ["2021-12-01", 0.0966], ["2021-12-02", 0.0966], ["2021-12-02", 0.0966], ["2021-12-02", 0.0962], ["2021-12-02", 0.0958], ["2021-12-03", 0.0966], ["2021-12-05", 0.0938], ["2021-12-05", 0.094], ["2021-12-05", 0.0934], ["2021-12-06", 0.0945], ["2021-12-07", 0.0944], ["2021-12-07", 0.0934], ["2021-12-08", 0.0937], ["2021-12-08", 0.0937], ["2021-12-08", 0.0944], ["2021-12-09", 0.0944], ["2021-12-09", 0.0944], ["2021-12-10", 0.0927], ["2021-12-11", 0.0927], ["2021-12-11", 0.0927], ["2021-12-11", 0.0916], ["2021-12-13", 0.0916], ["2021-12-13", 0.0916], ["2021-12-13", 0.0916], ["2021-12-14", 0.0916], ["2021-12-14", 0.0916], ["2021-12-14", 0.0912], ["2021-12-14", 0.092], ["2021-12-14", 0.0913], ["2021-12-14", 0.0896], ["2021-12-15", 0.0896], ["2021-12-15", 0.0908], ["2021-12-15", 0.091], ["2021-12-15", 0.0923], ["2021-12-15", 0.0929], ["2021-12-15", 0.0937], ["2021-12-16", 0.0936], ["2021-12-16", 0.0928], ["2021-12-16", 0.0928], ["2021-12-16", 0.0928], ["2021-12-17", 0.0928]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/373 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.</i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>A similar question was <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/924/will-china-execute-or-be-targeted-in-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-before-1-september-2018/" target="_blank">published on Metaculus</a> in May 2018 as part of the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html" target="_blank">IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge</a>. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see <a href="https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Many</a> <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/03/not-enough-being-done-counter-chinas-growing-aggression-us-military-officials-warn/172594/" target="_blank">view</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might?t=1629202257283" target="_blank">China</a> as becoming increasingly military aggressive. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/14/is-there-really-a-risk-that-china-will-go-to-war-with-taiwan" target="_blank">Experts</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/" target="_blank">are divided</a> on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386" target="_blank">stated</a> that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201" target="_blank">recently increased their military presence </a>on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up.html" target="_blank">preferred warm-up fight</a>" for China.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. </p><p>* * *</p><p><b>What are forecasters saying?</b> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23122" target="_blank">Here</a> is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
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<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
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0.0355]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/373 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.</i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>A similar question was <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/924/will-china-execute-or-be-targeted-in-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-before-1-september-2018/" target="_blank">published on Metaculus</a> in May 2018 as part of the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html" target="_blank">IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge</a>. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see <a href="https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Many</a> <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/03/not-enough-being-done-counter-chinas-growing-aggression-us-military-officials-warn/172594/" target="_blank">view</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might?t=1629202257283" target="_blank">China</a> as becoming increasingly military aggressive. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/14/is-there-really-a-risk-that-china-will-go-to-war-with-taiwan" target="_blank">Experts</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/" target="_blank">are divided</a> on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386" target="_blank">stated</a> that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201" target="_blank">recently increased their military presence </a>on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up.html" target="_blank">preferred warm-up fight</a>" for China.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. </p><p>* * *</p><p><b>What are forecasters saying?</b> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23122" target="_blank">Here</a> is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-17", 0.2], ["2021-08-17", 0.12], ["2021-08-17", 0.0867], ["2021-08-17", 0.0775], ["2021-08-17", 0.082], ["2021-08-17", 0.0783], ["2021-08-17", 0.1529], ["2021-08-17", 0.14], ["2021-08-18", 0.1278], ["2021-08-18", 0.119], ["2021-08-19", 0.1109], ["2021-08-19", 0.1083], ["2021-08-19", 0.1023], ["2021-08-20", 0.0942], ["2021-08-20", 0.1009], ["2021-08-20", 0.0955], ["2021-08-20", 0.0942], ["2021-08-20", 0.0908], ["2021-08-20", 0.0879], ["2021-08-20", 0.0857], ["2021-08-21", 0.1033], ["2021-08-22", 0.0988], ["2021-08-22", 0.0619], ["2021-08-22", 0.0641], ["2021-08-23", 0.0633], ["2021-08-23", 0.0617], ["2021-08-23", 0.0626], ["2021-08-23", 0.062], ["2021-08-24", 0.0605], ["2021-08-24", 0.0581], ["2021-08-24", 0.0577], ["2021-08-26", 0.0559], ["2021-08-26", 0.0535], ["2021-08-26", 0.053], ["2021-08-26", 0.0508], ["2021-08-27", 0.0488], ["2021-08-27", 0.0484], ["2021-08-28", 0.0481], ["2021-08-28", 0.0477], ["2021-08-29", 0.083], ["2021-08-30", 0.0818], ["2021-08-30", 0.0797], ["2021-08-31", 0.08], ["2021-08-31", 0.0845], ["2021-08-31", 0.0833], ["2021-08-31", 0.0823], ["2021-08-31", 0.0971], ["2021-08-31", 0.081], ["2021-08-31", 0.0797], ["2021-08-31", 0.0773], ["2021-08-31", 0.077], ["2021-09-01", 0.0806], ["2021-09-01", 0.0786], ["2021-09-01", 0.0789], ["2021-09-01", 0.0789], ["2021-09-04", 0.0794], ["2021-09-07", 0.0806], ["2021-09-07", 0.0811], ["2021-09-07", 0.0806], ["2021-09-07", 0.0797], ["2021-09-09", 0.0811], ["2021-09-10", 0.0932], ["2021-09-12", 0.0921], ["2021-09-12", 0.0908], ["2021-09-12", 0.0905], ["2021-09-13", 0.09], ["2021-09-16", 0.09], ["2021-09-16", 0.0905], ["2021-09-16", 0.0893], ["2021-09-16", 0.0885], ["2021-09-17", 0.0885]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/372 | <p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022" target="_blank">August 2021 through March 2022</a>. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021" target="_blank">variation on this question</a> with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.</p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
<p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech</a>, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">some</a> <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">media</a> reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. </p><p>Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/chinas-new-pressure-on-taiwan-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">appear to be </a>the <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drones-04072021180138.html" target="_blank">hot</a> <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/04/27/2003756422" target="_blank">battleground</a>. In its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Annual Report to Congress</a>, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba." In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands</a> to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. <i>Seizure</i> involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">this blog post</a>.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-04-17 | 2021-08-13 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/tensions-heighten-in-taiwan-strait-as-china-acts-to-extend-military-operations", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3176511/pla-navy-steps-real-life-combat-drills-east-china-sea-near", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/39536", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/business/china-power-shortage-drought.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/29/asia/us-china-taiwan-strait-transit-intl-hnk-mic-ml/index.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/17/china-launches-third-aircraft-carrier-military-advance-us-fujian-taiwan", "https://www.dw.com/en/is-china-building-a-military-base-in-cambodia/a-62124251", "https://japan-forward.com/wang-yi-solicits-india-with-brics-in-surprise-visit-as-ukraine-complicates-quad/", "https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-asia-beijing-nancy-pelosi-8fa31bee2bc1dc9979ecd21f7185f7ec", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/politics/rimpac-navy-exercises-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/03/world/pelosi-visit-taiwan-china", "https://www.wionews.com/photos/why-china-is-launching-new-warships-in-the-south-china-sea-473174#new-chinese-aircraft-carrier-473164", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-to-hold-party-congress-in-November-report", "https://apnews.com/article/science-ferdinand-marcos-jr-manila-philippines-china-32e069df6968d6aece7334d0c9c633f8", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-62377353", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/05/chinese-fighter-jets-actions-near-australian-aircraft-very-dangerous-deputy-pm-says", "https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/japan-australia-increasing-military-budgets-amid-chinese-aggression-in-south-china-sea20220707170744/", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/40242", "https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1555205400999432193", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/16/asia/us-navy-freedom-of-navigation-spratly-islands-south-china-sea-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/04/11/china-delivers-anti-aircraft-missiles-to-serbia/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/south-china-sea-region-at-a-higher-risk-for-conflict-weapons-expert.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/we-needed-china-deal-to-protect-domestic-security-says-key-solomon-islands-official", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Former-Xinjiang-chief-s-demotion-in-China-sparks-speculation", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/36578"] | binary | [["2021-09-02", 0.055], ["2021-09-02", 0.0775], ["2021-09-02", 0.0917], ["2021-09-03", 0.1313], ["2021-09-03", 0.12], ["2021-09-04", 0.1167], ["2021-09-05", 0.1223], ["2021-09-05", 0.1382], ["2021-09-07", 0.1392], ["2021-09-08", 0.1008], ["2021-09-09", 0.1033], ["2021-09-09", 0.0969], ["2021-09-10", 0.095], ["2021-09-10", 0.1295], ["2021-09-10", 0.133], ["2021-09-10", 0.1673], ["2021-09-10", 0.1668], ["2021-09-11", 0.1613], ["2021-09-11", 0.18], ["2021-09-12", 0.2015], ["2021-09-12", 0.205], ["2021-09-13", 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<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
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<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-12-17", 0.0938], ["2021-12-17", 0.0938], ["2021-12-18", 0.0933], ["2021-12-20", 0.0933], ["2021-12-20", 0.0933], ["2021-12-20", 0.0933], ["2021-12-21", 0.0932], ["2021-12-21", 0.0934], ["2021-12-22", 0.0945], ["2021-12-22", 0.0945], ["2021-12-22", 0.0943], ["2021-12-22", 0.0934], ["2021-12-22", 0.0936], ["2021-12-22", 0.0935], ["2021-12-23", 0.0935], ["2021-12-23", 0.0935], ["2021-12-24", 0.0935], ["2021-12-24", 0.0946], ["2021-12-25", 0.0946], ["2021-12-25", 0.094], ["2021-12-26", 0.0945], ["2021-12-27", 0.0944], ["2021-12-27", 0.0947], ["2021-12-29", 0.0949], ["2021-12-29", 0.0944], ["2021-12-30", 0.0944], ["2021-12-30", 0.0944], ["2021-12-31", 0.0944], ["2021-12-31", 0.0921], ["2021-12-31", 0.0921], ["2021-12-31", 0.0916], ["2021-12-31", 0.0916], ["2022-01-01", 0.0916], ["2022-01-01", 0.0916], ["2022-01-04", 0.0916], ["2022-01-04", 0.0918], ["2022-01-04", 0.0918], ["2022-01-04", 0.0918], ["2022-01-06", 0.0919], ["2022-01-07", 0.0916], ["2022-01-07", 0.0919], ["2022-01-09", 0.0919], ["2022-01-11", 0.0919], ["2022-01-11", 0.0919], ["2022-01-11", 0.092], ["2022-01-11", 0.092], ["2022-01-12", 0.092], ["2022-01-12", 0.092], ["2022-01-14", 0.0918], ["2022-01-14", 0.0918], ["2022-01-14", 0.0913], ["2022-01-14", 0.0914], ["2022-01-15", 0.0915], ["2022-01-16", 0.0915], ["2022-01-17", 0.0915]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/373 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.</i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>A similar question was <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/924/will-china-execute-or-be-targeted-in-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-before-1-september-2018/" target="_blank">published on Metaculus</a> in May 2018 as part of the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html" target="_blank">IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge</a>. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see <a href="https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Many</a> <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/03/not-enough-being-done-counter-chinas-growing-aggression-us-military-officials-warn/172594/" target="_blank">view</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might?t=1629202257283" target="_blank">China</a> as becoming increasingly military aggressive. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/14/is-there-really-a-risk-that-china-will-go-to-war-with-taiwan" target="_blank">Experts</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/" target="_blank">are divided</a> on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386" target="_blank">stated</a> that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201" target="_blank">recently increased their military presence </a>on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up.html" target="_blank">preferred warm-up fight</a>" for China.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. </p><p>* * *</p><p><b>What are forecasters saying?</b> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23122" target="_blank">Here</a> is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-17", 0.087], ["2021-09-17", 0.0854], ["2021-09-17", 0.0852], ["2021-09-17", 0.084], ["2021-09-17", 0.0848], ["2021-09-18", 0.0867], ["2021-09-18", 0.0862], ["2021-09-19", 0.0864], ["2021-09-20", 0.0871], ["2021-09-20", 0.0879], ["2021-09-21", 0.095], ["2021-09-21", 0.0935], ["2021-09-23", 0.0947], ["2021-09-23", 0.0958], ["2021-09-24", 0.0958], ["2021-09-24", 0.0958], ["2021-09-26", 0.0958], ["2021-09-26", 0.0956], ["2021-09-26", 0.096], ["2021-09-27", 0.0728], ["2021-09-27", 0.0719], ["2021-09-28", 0.0719], ["2021-09-28", 0.0707], ["2021-09-28", 0.072], ["2021-09-28", 0.0718], ["2021-09-29", 0.068], ["2021-09-29", 0.068], ["2021-09-30", 0.0736], ["2021-09-30", 0.0736], ["2021-09-30", 0.082], ["2021-09-30", 0.086], ["2021-09-30", 0.0841], ["2021-09-30", 0.0841], ["2021-09-30", 0.0804], ["2021-10-01", 0.0824], ["2021-10-01", 0.0809], ["2021-10-01", 0.0804], ["2021-10-01", 0.0785], ["2021-10-01", 0.0785], ["2021-10-04", 0.0791], ["2021-10-05", 0.0794], ["2021-10-06", 0.077], ["2021-10-07", 0.0792], ["2021-10-08", 0.0808], ["2021-10-08", 0.0663], ["2021-10-09", 0.0663], ["2021-10-10", 0.0667], ["2021-10-10", 0.0665], ["2021-10-10", 0.0665], ["2021-10-11", 0.0665], ["2021-10-12", 0.0685], ["2021-10-13", 0.068], ["2021-10-13", 0.068], ["2021-10-13", 0.0684], ["2021-10-14", 0.067], ["2021-10-15", 0.0672], ["2021-10-15", 0.0656], ["2021-10-15", 0.0654], ["2021-10-16", 0.0656], ["2021-10-17", 0.0656]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/372 | <p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022" target="_blank">August 2021 through March 2022</a>. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021" target="_blank">variation on this question</a> with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.</p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
<p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech</a>, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">some</a> <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">media</a> reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. </p><p>Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/chinas-new-pressure-on-taiwan-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">appear to be </a>the <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drones-04072021180138.html" target="_blank">hot</a> <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/04/27/2003756422" target="_blank">battleground</a>. In its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Annual Report to Congress</a>, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba." In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands</a> to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. <i>Seizure</i> involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">this blog post</a>.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-04-17 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-17", 0.1794], ["2021-09-17", 0.1819], ["2021-09-17", 0.1824], ["2021-09-17", 0.183], ["2021-09-17", 0.1821], ["2021-09-17", 0.1774], ["2021-09-17", 0.1762], ["2021-09-17", 0.1735], ["2021-09-17", 0.1729], ["2021-09-18", 0.1729], ["2021-09-18", 0.1736], ["2021-09-18", 0.1738], ["2021-09-18", 0.1714], ["2021-09-18", 0.1721], ["2021-09-18", 0.1723], ["2021-09-19", 0.1866], ["2021-09-19", 0.187], ["2021-09-21", 0.1853], ["2021-09-22", 0.182], ["2021-09-23", 0.1798], ["2021-09-23", 0.1804], ["2021-09-23", 0.182], ["2021-09-23", 0.183], ["2021-09-24", 0.1802], ["2021-09-25", 0.1765], ["2021-09-26", 0.1765], ["2021-09-27", 0.1769], ["2021-09-27", 0.1706], ["2021-09-27", 0.1692], ["2021-09-28", 0.1732], ["2021-09-28", 0.1692], ["2021-09-28", 0.1652], ["2021-09-28", 0.1639], ["2021-09-28", 0.1627], ["2021-09-29", 0.1579], ["2021-09-29", 0.1564], ["2021-09-30", 0.1554], ["2021-09-30", 0.1535], ["2021-09-30", 0.1531], ["2021-10-01", 0.1638], ["2021-10-01", 0.1618], ["2021-10-01", 0.1618], ["2021-10-01", 0.1474], ["2021-10-03", 0.1472], ["2021-10-03", 0.1467], ["2021-10-04", 0.147], ["2021-10-05", 0.1468], ["2021-10-06", 0.146], ["2021-10-06", 0.1456], ["2021-10-06", 0.1465], ["2021-10-06", 0.1474], ["2021-10-06", 0.147], ["2021-10-06", 0.146], ["2021-10-06", 0.1462], ["2021-10-07", 0.1469], ["2021-10-08", 0.1486], ["2021-10-08", 0.1467], ["2021-10-09", 0.1466], ["2021-10-09", 0.1378], ["2021-10-09", 0.1257], ["2021-10-09", 0.1257], ["2021-10-10", 0.1269], ["2021-10-10", 0.1253], ["2021-10-10", 0.1212], ["2021-10-11", 0.1202], ["2021-10-11", 0.1198], ["2021-10-12", 0.1198], ["2021-10-12", 0.1203], ["2021-10-12", 0.1176], ["2021-10-13", 0.1184], ["2021-10-13", 0.1186], ["2021-10-13", 0.1255], ["2021-10-14", 0.1247], ["2021-10-14", 0.1271], ["2021-10-14", 0.1283], ["2021-10-15", 0.1262], ["2021-10-15", 0.132], ["2021-10-15", 0.1312], ["2021-10-16", 0.1316], ["2021-10-17", 0.1316]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/349 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-04-17 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-10-17", 0.1341], ["2021-10-18", 0.1335], ["2021-10-19", 0.1339], ["2021-10-19", 0.1365], ["2021-10-20", 0.1402], ["2021-10-20", 0.1403], ["2021-10-21", 0.1384], ["2021-10-21", 0.1383], ["2021-10-21", 0.1377], ["2021-10-22", 0.138], ["2021-10-22", 0.1389], ["2021-10-23", 0.1391], ["2021-10-23", 0.1374], ["2021-10-24", 0.1367], ["2021-10-24", 0.1369], ["2021-10-24", 0.1363], ["2021-10-24", 0.1372], ["2021-10-25", 0.1374], ["2021-10-26", 0.1278], ["2021-10-26", 0.1304], ["2021-10-27", 0.1312], ["2021-10-27", 0.1316], ["2021-10-27", 0.1318], ["2021-10-27", 0.1318], ["2021-10-27", 0.1313], ["2021-10-27", 0.1301], ["2021-10-28", 0.1291], ["2021-10-28", 0.1309], ["2021-10-28", 0.1304], ["2021-10-28", 0.1293], ["2021-10-28", 0.1297], ["2021-10-28", 0.1317], ["2021-10-28", 0.1334], ["2021-10-28", 0.135], ["2021-10-28", 0.1396], ["2021-10-28", 0.1408], ["2021-10-29", 0.1415], ["2021-10-29", 0.1416], ["2021-10-29", 0.1416], ["2021-10-29", 0.1423], ["2021-10-30", 0.1415], ["2021-10-30", 0.1415], ["2021-10-30", 0.1495], ["2021-10-30", 0.1509], ["2021-10-30", 0.1505], ["2021-10-31", 0.1499], ["2021-10-31", 0.1563], ["2021-10-31", 0.164], ["2021-10-31", 0.1641], ["2021-10-31", 0.1641], ["2021-10-31", 0.1621], ["2021-10-31", 0.1628], ["2021-10-31", 0.1607], ["2021-10-31", 0.1606], ["2021-11-01", 0.1611], ["2021-11-01", 0.1605], ["2021-11-01", 0.1602], ["2021-11-01", 0.1528], ["2021-11-01", 0.1527], ["2021-11-01", 0.1526], ["2021-11-01", 0.1523], ["2021-11-02", 0.1511], ["2021-11-02", 0.1511], ["2021-11-03", 0.151], ["2021-11-03", 0.151], ["2021-11-04", 0.1508], ["2021-11-04", 0.151], ["2021-11-04", 0.1517], ["2021-11-04", 0.1517], ["2021-11-05", 0.1511], ["2021-11-06", 0.1511], ["2021-11-06", 0.1511], ["2021-11-06", 0.1517], ["2021-11-06", 0.1517], ["2021-11-07", 0.152], ["2021-11-07", 0.1527], ["2021-11-08", 0.1527], ["2021-11-08", 0.1527], ["2021-11-08", 0.1521], ["2021-11-09", 0.1521], ["2021-11-09", 0.1525], ["2021-11-10", 0.1525], ["2021-11-11", 0.1525], ["2021-11-11", 0.1525], ["2021-11-11", 0.1526], ["2021-11-11", 0.1526], ["2021-11-12", 0.1524], ["2021-11-12", 0.1532], ["2021-11-13", 0.1536], ["2021-11-13", 0.1527], ["2021-11-13", 0.1529], ["2021-11-14", 0.1535], ["2021-11-14", 0.1538], ["2021-11-14", 0.154], ["2021-11-14", 0.154], ["2021-11-14", 0.1531], ["2021-11-15", 0.1535], ["2021-11-15", 0.1536], ["2021-11-15", 0.1536], ["2021-11-15", 0.1536], ["2021-11-16", 0.1571], ["2021-11-16", 0.1571], ["2021-11-17", 0.1571], ["2021-11-17", 0.1571]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/349 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-10-17", 0.0851], ["2021-10-18", 0.0851], ["2021-10-19", 0.0851], ["2021-10-19", 0.0851], ["2021-10-19", 0.0861], ["2021-10-19", 0.0865], ["2021-10-20", 0.082], ["2021-10-20", 0.0824], ["2021-10-20", 0.0825], ["2021-10-20", 0.082], ["2021-10-20", 0.0809], ["2021-10-21", 0.0805], ["2021-10-22", 0.0812], ["2021-10-23", 0.0819], ["2021-10-24", 0.0832], ["2021-10-25", 0.0832], ["2021-10-26", 0.0828], ["2021-10-26", 0.0828], ["2021-10-27", 0.0829], ["2021-10-27", 0.0827], ["2021-10-27", 0.0853], ["2021-10-27", 0.0932], ["2021-10-28", 0.092], ["2021-10-28", 0.0924], ["2021-10-28", 0.0929], ["2021-10-28", 0.0957], ["2021-10-28", 0.0945], ["2021-10-28", 0.094], ["2021-10-29", 0.0915], ["2021-10-29", 0.0923], ["2021-10-29", 0.0923], ["2021-10-29", 0.0917], ["2021-10-29", 0.0917], ["2021-10-29", 0.0911], ["2021-10-29", 0.091], ["2021-10-29", 0.091], ["2021-10-29", 0.091], ["2021-10-31", 0.0909], ["2021-10-31", 0.0909], ["2021-10-31", 0.0896], ["2021-10-31", 0.0935], ["2021-10-31", 0.0907], ["2021-10-31", 0.0916], ["2021-11-01", 0.0913], ["2021-11-01", 0.092], ["2021-11-01", 0.092], ["2021-11-01", 0.0925], ["2021-11-01", 0.0925], ["2021-11-01", 0.0925], ["2021-11-01", 0.0925], ["2021-11-01", 0.0925], ["2021-11-04", 0.0925], ["2021-11-04", 0.0914], ["2021-11-05", 0.0914], ["2021-11-05", 0.0917], ["2021-11-05", 0.0924], ["2021-11-08", 0.0919], ["2021-11-08", 0.0915], ["2021-11-08", 0.0915], ["2021-11-10", 0.0898], ["2021-11-10", 0.0893], ["2021-11-11", 0.0898], ["2021-11-13", 0.0896], ["2021-11-13", 0.09], ["2021-11-14", 0.09], ["2021-11-14", 0.09], ["2021-11-14", 0.09], ["2021-11-15", 0.09], ["2021-11-16", 0.09], ["2021-11-16", 0.0824], ["2021-11-16", 0.0825], ["2021-11-16", 0.0852], ["2021-11-16", 0.0852], ["2021-11-16", 0.0854], ["2021-11-17", 0.0854]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/373 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.</i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>A similar question was <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/924/will-china-execute-or-be-targeted-in-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-before-1-september-2018/" target="_blank">published on Metaculus</a> in May 2018 as part of the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html" target="_blank">IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge</a>. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see <a href="https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Many</a> <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/03/not-enough-being-done-counter-chinas-growing-aggression-us-military-officials-warn/172594/" target="_blank">view</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might?t=1629202257283" target="_blank">China</a> as becoming increasingly military aggressive. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/14/is-there-really-a-risk-that-china-will-go-to-war-with-taiwan" target="_blank">Experts</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/" target="_blank">are divided</a> on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386" target="_blank">stated</a> that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201" target="_blank">recently increased their military presence </a>on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up.html" target="_blank">preferred warm-up fight</a>" for China.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. </p><p>* * *</p><p><b>What are forecasters saying?</b> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23122" target="_blank">Here</a> is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-04-17 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-12-17", 0.1596], ["2021-12-17", 0.1596], ["2021-12-18", 0.1574], ["2021-12-18", 0.1574], ["2021-12-20", 0.1574], ["2021-12-20", 0.1574], ["2021-12-22", 0.1574], ["2021-12-22", 0.1574], ["2021-12-24", 0.1572], ["2021-12-25", 0.1572], ["2021-12-25", 0.1566], ["2021-12-27", 0.1566], ["2021-12-27", 0.1565], ["2021-12-28", 0.1511], ["2021-12-28", 0.1511], ["2021-12-29", 0.1511], ["2021-12-29", 0.1505], ["2021-12-29", 0.1505], ["2021-12-30", 0.1508], ["2021-12-30", 0.1508], ["2021-12-30", 0.1508], ["2021-12-31", 0.1508], ["2021-12-31", 0.1492], ["2021-12-31", 0.1492], ["2021-12-31", 0.1461], ["2021-12-31", 0.1462], ["2021-12-31", 0.151], ["2022-01-01", 0.151], ["2022-01-01", 0.1487], ["2022-01-01", 0.1488], ["2022-01-01", 0.1488], ["2022-01-02", 0.1488], ["2022-01-03", 0.147], ["2022-01-04", 0.147], ["2022-01-04", 0.147], ["2022-01-04", 0.147], ["2022-01-05", 0.1462], ["2022-01-05", 0.1458], ["2022-01-06", 0.1451], ["2022-01-06", 0.1446], ["2022-01-06", 0.1445], ["2022-01-06", 0.1439], ["2022-01-07", 0.1442], ["2022-01-08", 0.1442], ["2022-01-09", 0.1442], ["2022-01-10", 0.1457], ["2022-01-10", 0.1457], ["2022-01-10", 0.1457], ["2022-01-11", 0.1431], ["2022-01-12", 0.1431], ["2022-01-12", 0.1431], ["2022-01-13", 0.1431], ["2022-01-14", 0.1431], ["2022-01-15", 0.1431], ["2022-01-17", 0.1431]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/349 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | ["https://www.firstpost.com/india/chinas-pla-may-have-an-edge-over-indian-army-but-we-are-better-prepared-in-high-altitude-warfare-10152881.html", "https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-state-dept-approves-potential-sale-air-defense-support-taiwan-pentagon-2022-04-05/", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/asia/china-taiwan-invasion-scenarios-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html", "https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/us-china-attack-taiwan-milley-b2114735.html", "https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/expanding-chinese-cyber-espionage-threat-against-india/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/14/india-china-policy-ladakh-border-clash-quad-modi/", "https://www.cultivatelabs.com/crowdsourced-forecasting-guide/what-is-a-brier-score-and-how-is-it-calculated", "https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/beware-the-himalayan-heat-china-india-and-pakistan-on-the-brink/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3169963/why-beijing-thinks-taiwan-different-ukraine", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/49172", "https://nationalinterest.org/feature/vietnam-danger-america-can-help-202090", "https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/diplomacy/article/3178590/china-india-border-row-new-delhi-accuses-beijing-illegal", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-conducts-military-exercise-with-attack-choppers-over-pangong-lake/articleshow/93010489.cms", "https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-ship-sinks-vietnamese-fishing-boat-in-south-china-seas-disputed-paracel-islands;", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/47215", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-62377353", "https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/05/chinese-fighter-jets-actions-near-australian-aircraft-very-dangerous-deputy-pm-says", "https://www.livemint.com/news/india/china-tests-a-rocket-near-lac-that-can-hit-critical-indian-army-bases-11658447491890.html", "https://en.baochinhphu.vn/print/chinese-ships-launch-waves-of-attacks-against-vietnamese-vessels-11120076.htm;", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3177538/satellite-images-suggest-china-practising-missile-strikes", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/40242", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53062484", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3180160/chinese-pla-bombers-carry-out-night-raid-drills-around-taiwan", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLcFor0Im5g", "https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3179136/china-india-border-why-another-chinese-bridge-may-be-latest"] | binary | [["2021-08-17", 0.365], ["2021-08-17", 0.22], ["2021-08-17", 0.1767], ["2021-08-17", 0.1363], ["2021-08-17", 0.1378], ["2021-08-17", 0.13], ["2021-08-18", 0.1267], ["2021-08-18", 0.1157], ["2021-08-18", 0.1131], ["2021-08-19", 0.1056], 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<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.</i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>A similar question was <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/924/will-china-execute-or-be-targeted-in-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-before-1-september-2018/" target="_blank">published on Metaculus</a> in May 2018 as part of the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html" target="_blank">IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge</a>. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see <a href="https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Many</a> <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/03/not-enough-being-done-counter-chinas-growing-aggression-us-military-officials-warn/172594/" target="_blank">view</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might?t=1629202257283" target="_blank">China</a> as becoming increasingly military aggressive. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/14/is-there-really-a-risk-that-china-will-go-to-war-with-taiwan" target="_blank">Experts</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/" target="_blank">are divided</a> on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386" target="_blank">stated</a> that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201" target="_blank">recently increased their military presence </a>on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up.html" target="_blank">preferred warm-up fight</a>" for China.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. </p><p>* * *</p><p><b>What are forecasters saying?</b> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23122" target="_blank">Here</a> is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
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<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
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<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—has been published three times before: for the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">first half of 2021</a>, the <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">second half of 2021</a>, and <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/182-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-september-1-2021-and-february-28-2022-inclusive" target="_blank">September 2021-February 2022</a>. The final consensus forecasts for those questions were 11%, 14%, and 14%.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area.</p><p>In past iterations of this question, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/12827" target="_blank">several</a> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19390" target="_blank">forecasters</a> have analyzed the historical frequency of conflict of the type being forecasted here.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.</p><p>Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is forecasting September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">see this blog post</a>.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | ["https://twitter.com/juan_cambeiro/status/1553361678288519168", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4579553", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html", "https://youtu.be/NGECDFKcNhU", "https://apnews.com/article/biden-beijing-china-nancy-pelosi-taiwan-1f3405756aeb58cbc78afb1082077068", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-05/china-announces-sanctions-on-us-house-speaker-pelosi-l6g7e431", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4587216", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/10/china-halts-military-drills-around-taiwan-but-war-preparation-continues", "https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-asia-beijing-nancy-pelosi-8fa31bee2bc1dc9979ecd21f7185f7ec", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/49172", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/02/nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-china-military/", "https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1554377876727705601", "https://eurasiantimes.com/mission-2027-chinese-military-will-be-ready-for-action-taiwan/", "https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1553406681710739459", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/04/taiwan-fires-chinese-drones-amid-tensions-beijing/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/03/china-to-begin-series-unprecedented-live-fire-drills-off-coast-of-taiwan", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3181667/chinese-concerns-rise-over-us-policy-shift-taiwan", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YQbTr8vLlI&ab_channel=ShanghaiEye%E9%AD%94%E9%83%BD%E7%9C%BC", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/china-begins-live-fire-military-drills-around-taiwan-a-day-after-pelosi-visit.html", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/49122", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLcFor0Im5g", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/03/taiwan-fighters-ukraine-war-russia-china-threat/", "https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/48873", 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["2022-08-12", 0.042], ["2022-08-13", 0.0407], ["2022-08-15", 0.0388], ["2022-08-15", 0.0377], ["2022-08-16", 0.0376], ["2022-08-17", 0.0373], ["2022-08-17", 0.0373]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/372 | <p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022" target="_blank">August 2021 through March 2022</a>. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021" target="_blank">variation on this question</a> with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.</p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
<p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech</a>, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">some</a> <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">media</a> reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. </p><p>Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/chinas-new-pressure-on-taiwan-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">appear to be </a>the <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drones-04072021180138.html" target="_blank">hot</a> <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/04/27/2003756422" target="_blank">battleground</a>. In its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Annual Report to Congress</a>, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba." In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands</a> to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. <i>Seizure</i> involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">this blog post</a>.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
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<p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech</a>, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">some</a> <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">media</a> reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. </p><p>Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/chinas-new-pressure-on-taiwan-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">appear to be </a>the <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drones-04072021180138.html" target="_blank">hot</a> <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/04/27/2003756422" target="_blank">battleground</a>. In its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Annual Report to Congress</a>, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba." In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands</a> to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. <i>Seizure</i> involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">this blog post</a>.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
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0.0096], ["2022-07-23", 0.0103], ["2022-07-23", 0.0109], ["2022-07-25", 0.0121], ["2022-07-26", 0.0114], ["2022-07-26", 0.0119], ["2022-07-26", 0.0118], ["2022-07-27", 0.0117], ["2022-07-27", 0.014], ["2022-07-27", 0.015], ["2022-07-28", 0.0149], ["2022-07-28", 0.0144], ["2022-07-28", 0.0145], ["2022-07-28", 0.0145], ["2022-07-29", 0.0148], ["2022-07-29", 0.0156], ["2022-07-29", 0.0143], ["2022-07-30", 0.0145], ["2022-07-30", 0.0148], ["2022-07-31", 0.0158], ["2022-07-31", 0.0169], ["2022-07-31", 0.0177], ["2022-07-31", 0.0176], ["2022-07-31", 0.018], ["2022-07-31", 0.0194], ["2022-07-31", 0.0201], ["2022-07-31", 0.0195], ["2022-07-31", 0.0194], ["2022-07-31", 0.0194], ["2022-08-01", 0.0194], ["2022-08-01", 0.0226], ["2022-08-01", 0.0239], ["2022-08-01", 0.0227], ["2022-08-01", 0.0223], ["2022-08-01", 0.023], ["2022-08-02", 0.0448], ["2022-08-02", 0.047], ["2022-08-02", 0.0457], ["2022-08-02", 0.0481], ["2022-08-02", 0.0488], ["2022-08-02", 0.0505], ["2022-08-02", 0.0538], ["2022-08-02", 0.0543], ["2022-08-02", 0.0549], ["2022-08-02", 0.0564], ["2022-08-03", 0.0569], ["2022-08-03", 0.0572], ["2022-08-03", 0.0577], ["2022-08-03", 0.0583], ["2022-08-03", 0.057], ["2022-08-03", 0.0544], ["2022-08-04", 0.0532], ["2022-08-04", 0.0582], ["2022-08-04", 0.0578], ["2022-08-05", 0.0578], ["2022-08-05", 0.058], ["2022-08-07", 0.0593], ["2022-08-08", 0.0613], ["2022-08-08", 0.0653], ["2022-08-08", 0.0644], ["2022-08-08", 0.0647], ["2022-08-09", 0.0668], ["2022-08-09", 0.0655], ["2022-08-09", 0.0646], ["2022-08-09", 0.0645], ["2022-08-10", 0.0628], ["2022-08-10", 0.0594], ["2022-08-10", 0.0586], ["2022-08-10", 0.0564], ["2022-08-10", 0.0566], ["2022-08-10", 0.0501], ["2022-08-10", 0.0493], ["2022-08-10", 0.048], ["2022-08-10", 0.0463], ["2022-08-11", 0.0443], ["2022-08-11", 0.0442], ["2022-08-11", 0.0431], ["2022-08-11", 0.0425], ["2022-08-11", 0.0423], ["2022-08-12", 0.0427], ["2022-08-12", 0.042], ["2022-08-12", 0.0414], ["2022-08-13", 0.0407], ["2022-08-14", 0.0394], ["2022-08-15", 0.0388], ["2022-08-15", 0.0387], ["2022-08-15", 0.0377], ["2022-08-16", 0.0372], ["2022-08-16", 0.0376], ["2022-08-16", 0.0374], ["2022-08-17", 0.0373], ["2023-05-23", 0.0373]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/372 | <p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. </i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>This same question—forecasting a six-month risk level—was previously published for the period <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022" target="_blank">August 2021 through March 2022</a>. The final consensus forecast was 6%. We previously cross-posted a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021" target="_blank">variation on this question</a> with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.</p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
<p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high. Although China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, in May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech</a>, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island. Throughout 2020 and 2021, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea with <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">some</a> <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">media</a> reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan. </p><p>Taiwan-occupied features in the South China Sea <a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/chinas-new-pressure-on-taiwan-in-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">appear to be </a>the <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drones-04072021180138.html" target="_blank">hot</a> <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2021/04/27/2003756422" target="_blank">battleground</a>. In its <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Annual Report to Congress</a>, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba." In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) <a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands</a> to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands."</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. <i>Seizure</i> involves an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces lasting more than 24 hours. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p><b>Question format</b>. This question asks about the six month-period beginning with the following month. For example, a forecast made on August 17 is for September 2021 through February 2022. It rolls over on the first of every month, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/rolling-question-formats" target="_blank">this blog post</a>.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-17", 0.23], ["2021-08-17", 0.365], ["2021-08-17", 0.26], ["2021-08-17", 0.22], ["2021-08-17", 0.182], ["2021-08-17", 0.1767], ["2021-08-17", 0.1543], ["2021-08-17", 0.1363], ["2021-08-17", 0.1378], ["2021-08-17", 0.1378], ["2021-08-17", 0.136], ["2021-08-17", 0.13], ["2021-08-17", 0.1191], ["2021-08-18", 0.1267], ["2021-08-18", 0.1185], ["2021-08-18", 0.1157], ["2021-08-18", 0.114], ["2021-08-18", 0.1131], ["2021-08-18", 0.1082], ["2021-08-19", 0.1056], ["2021-08-19", 0.1047], ["2021-08-19", 0.1015], ["2021-08-19", 0.099], ["2021-08-20", 0.0991], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.075], ["2021-08-20", 0.0735], ["2021-08-20", 0.0728], ["2021-08-20", 0.07], ["2021-08-21", 0.0732], ["2021-08-21", 0.072], ["2021-08-22", 0.074], ["2021-08-22", 0.0729], ["2021-08-22", 0.07], ["2021-08-22", 0.0764], ["2021-08-22", 0.0739], ["2021-08-22", 0.0729], ["2021-08-23", 0.0767], ["2021-08-23", 0.0776], ["2021-08-24", 0.0785], ["2021-08-24", 0.0742], ["2021-08-24", 0.0733], ["2021-08-24", 0.0725], ["2021-08-24", 0.0786], ["2021-08-25", 0.079], ["2021-08-25", 0.0863], ["2021-08-25", 0.0835], ["2021-08-25", 0.0832], ["2021-08-26", 0.0822], ["2021-08-26", 0.0873], ["2021-08-26", 0.0842], ["2021-08-26", 0.0852], ["2021-08-27", 0.0841], ["2021-08-28", 0.0817], ["2021-08-28", 0.0823], ["2021-08-28", 0.08], ["2021-08-28", 0.0792], ["2021-08-29", 0.083], ["2021-08-29", 0.1005], ["2021-08-30", 0.0985], ["2021-08-31", 0.0974], ["2021-08-31", 0.0988], ["2021-08-31", 0.0976], ["2021-08-31", 0.0964], ["2021-08-31", 0.0979], ["2021-08-31", 0.0967], ["2021-08-31", 0.0957], ["2021-08-31", 0.0945], ["2021-08-31", 0.0931], ["2021-08-31", 0.0983], ["2021-08-31", 0.0983], ["2021-08-31", 0.0962], ["2021-08-31", 0.0958], ["2021-08-31", 0.0963], ["2021-09-01", 0.0956], ["2021-09-01", 0.0939], ["2021-09-01", 0.0933], ["2021-09-01", 0.0933], ["2021-09-01", 0.093], ["2021-09-01", 0.0918], ["2021-09-03", 0.0902], ["2021-09-03", 0.09], ["2021-09-04", 0.0906], ["2021-09-04", 0.0908], ["2021-09-06", 0.0912], ["2021-09-08", 0.0896], ["2021-09-09", 0.0902], ["2021-09-09", 0.0912], ["2021-09-10", 0.0915], ["2021-09-10", 0.0917], ["2021-09-11", 0.0933], ["2021-09-12", 0.0944], ["2021-09-12", 0.0942], ["2021-09-12", 0.0952], ["2021-09-13", 0.0937], ["2021-09-14", 0.0933], ["2021-09-15", 0.0958], ["2021-09-16", 0.1011], ["2021-09-16", 0.0993], ["2021-09-16", 0.0993], ["2021-09-16", 0.1], ["2021-09-17", 0.1007], ["2021-09-17", 0.1007]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/373 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.</i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>A similar question was <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/924/will-china-execute-or-be-targeted-in-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-before-1-september-2018/" target="_blank">published on Metaculus</a> in May 2018 as part of the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html" target="_blank">IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge</a>. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see <a href="https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Many</a> <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/03/not-enough-being-done-counter-chinas-growing-aggression-us-military-officials-warn/172594/" target="_blank">view</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might?t=1629202257283" target="_blank">China</a> as becoming increasingly military aggressive. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/14/is-there-really-a-risk-that-china-will-go-to-war-with-taiwan" target="_blank">Experts</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/" target="_blank">are divided</a> on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386" target="_blank">stated</a> that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201" target="_blank">recently increased their military presence </a>on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up.html" target="_blank">preferred warm-up fight</a>" for China.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. </p><p>* * *</p><p><b>What are forecasters saying?</b> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23122" target="_blank">Here</a> is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2023-05-23 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-17", 0.1007], ["2021-09-17", 0.0995], ["2021-09-17", 0.0986], ["2021-09-17", 0.0969], ["2021-09-17", 0.0961], ["2021-09-18", 0.0962], ["2021-09-18", 0.0952], ["2021-09-18", 0.0953], ["2021-09-19", 0.0952], ["2021-09-20", 0.0936], ["2021-09-21", 0.0941], ["2021-09-21", 0.0943], ["2021-09-22", 0.0948], ["2021-09-22", 0.0948], ["2021-09-24", 0.0949], ["2021-09-24", 0.0917], ["2021-09-24", 0.0911], ["2021-09-24", 0.0871], ["2021-09-24", 0.0883], ["2021-09-26", 0.091], ["2021-09-26", 0.0914], ["2021-09-26", 0.0914], ["2021-09-26", 0.0883], ["2021-09-26", 0.0884], ["2021-09-27", 0.0919], ["2021-09-27", 0.0927], ["2021-09-27", 0.0924], ["2021-09-27", 0.0911], ["2021-09-28", 0.0939], ["2021-09-28", 0.0938], ["2021-09-28", 0.0953], ["2021-09-28", 0.0946], ["2021-09-28", 0.0954], ["2021-09-28", 0.0942], ["2021-09-28", 0.0829], ["2021-09-29", 0.0842], ["2021-09-29", 0.0834], ["2021-09-29", 0.0818], ["2021-09-29", 0.0826], ["2021-09-29", 0.0859], ["2021-09-30", 0.0858], ["2021-09-30", 0.0856], ["2021-09-30", 0.0951], ["2021-09-30", 0.0967], ["2021-09-30", 0.0951], ["2021-09-30", 0.0937], ["2021-09-30", 0.0937], ["2021-09-30", 0.0923], ["2021-10-01", 0.0923], ["2021-10-01", 0.0937], ["2021-10-01", 0.0925], ["2021-10-01", 0.0926], ["2021-10-01", 0.0928], ["2021-10-01", 0.0928], ["2021-10-01", 0.0936], ["2021-10-01", 0.0936], ["2021-10-02", 0.0933], ["2021-10-02", 0.0936], ["2021-10-02", 0.0936], ["2021-10-03", 0.0929], ["2021-10-03", 0.0929], ["2021-10-04", 0.0896], ["2021-10-05", 0.0903], ["2021-10-05", 0.0921], ["2021-10-05", 0.0922], ["2021-10-05", 0.0922], ["2021-10-05", 0.0928], ["2021-10-05", 0.0915], ["2021-10-08", 0.0921], ["2021-10-08", 0.0925], ["2021-10-09", 0.0913], ["2021-10-10", 0.0913], ["2021-10-11", 0.0904], ["2021-10-11", 0.0903], ["2021-10-12", 0.0884], ["2021-10-12", 0.0882], ["2021-10-12", 0.0878], ["2021-10-13", 0.0877], ["2021-10-13", 0.0869], ["2021-10-13", 0.087], ["2021-10-14", 0.085], ["2021-10-14", 0.0859], ["2021-10-15", 0.0846], ["2021-10-16", 0.0844], ["2021-10-16", 0.0848], ["2021-10-17", 0.0848]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/373 |
<p><i>This question is a metric for an <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns" target="_blank">issue campaign</a> on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns-dod-sv" target="_blank">subpage</a> and a <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/dod-sv-relationship-intro" target="_blank">related blog post</a>. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.</i></p><p><b>Related questions. </b>A similar question was <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/924/will-china-execute-or-be-targeted-in-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-before-1-september-2018/" target="_blank">published on Metaculus</a> in May 2018 as part of the <a href="https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html" target="_blank">IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge</a>. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see <a href="https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Many</a> <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2021/03/not-enough-being-done-counter-chinas-growing-aggression-us-military-officials-warn/172594/" target="_blank">view</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might?t=1629202257283" target="_blank">China</a> as becoming increasingly military aggressive. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/14/is-there-really-a-risk-that-china-will-go-to-war-with-taiwan" target="_blank">Experts</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/" target="_blank">are divided</a> on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386" target="_blank">stated</a> that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201" target="_blank">recently increased their military presence </a>on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "<a href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up.html" target="_blank">preferred warm-up fight</a>" for China.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. </p><p>* * *</p><p><b>What are forecasters saying?</b> <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23122" target="_blank">Here</a> is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.</p><p>* * *</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><i> </i></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-17 | Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? | cset | 0 |
2016-03-01 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-debt-idUSL2N1631PV", "http://www.newsmovingmarkets.com/2016/02/venezuela-sovereign-debt-default-risk-cds.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/venezuela-bonds-drop-for-third-day-on-heightened-default-concern", "http://buenosairesherald.com/article/208652/venezuela-expands-military-influence-over-oil-and-mining", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/maduro-fails-to-reassure-investors-venezuela-can-avoid-default", "http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1243946908&Country=Venezuela&topic=Economy&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=Policy+trends&u=1&pid=553866839&oid=553866839&uid=1", "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/02/16/venezuela-will-currency-reform-wednesday-stave-off-default/", "http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/reporters-notebook/moving-to-venezuela/ata-port-in-venezuela-few-ships-but-plenty-of-theories-why", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/graphics-political-and-economic-guide-venezuela", "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21693273-default-becoming-hard-avoid-praying-pay", "http://en.mercopress.com/2016/02/29/venezuela-pays-debt-to-bankers-but-bakeries-have-no-bread-because-of-scarce-flour", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-arabia-and-russia-agree-oil-output-freeze-in-qatar-talks", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/venezuela-makes-15-billion-payment-to-creditors-2016-02-26", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/venezuela-ongc-idUKL2N1622IN", "http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-economy-idUSL2N15V0LR", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/sifting-through-swiss-gold-vaults-for-clues-of-venezuela-default", "http://buenosairesherald.com/article/208650/top-court-oks-maduro-emergency-decree-", "http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-O2M9X96TTDSA01-1N35HC3FJ2TR3HBD1T9VOQP9R6", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/cf14a292-d40d-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html#ixzz40Nj4kHmi", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12159052/Oil-prices-crash-after-Saudia-Arabia-and-Russia-agree-to-freeze-production.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-meeting-idUSKCN0VO2FJ", "http://www.dw.com/en/venezuelan-army-vows-support-for-maduro-as-political-crisis-deepens/a-18966540", "https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/venezuela-president-fights-two-front-war", "http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/01/21/venezuela-drumbeat-of-default-gets-louder/", "http://venezuelandailybrief.blogspot.com/"] | binary | [["2015-09-02", 0.55], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.45], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-03", 0.325], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.27], ["2015-09-04", 0.235], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-06", 0.2], ["2015-09-06", 0.2], ["2015-09-08", 0.2], ["2015-09-08", 0.195], ["2015-09-08", 0.19], ["2015-09-10", 0.19], ["2015-09-10", 0.19], ["2015-09-11", 0.195], 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threatening the country's main source of revenue, and runaway inflation is making it difficult for Venezuela and its state-owned oil and gas company to service its foreign debt (<a href = "http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2015/01/05/hello-2015-argentina-and-venezuela-the-emperor-has-no-clothes/" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/venezuela-s-772-inflation-means-default-may-come-a-lot-sooner" target = "_blank">Bloomberg 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/ravaged-by-oil-s-collapse-venezuela-now-has-a-big-gold-problem" target = "_blank">Bloomberg 2</a>).
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2016-01-04 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7363", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prisoner", "http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/12/04/opec-ponders-strategy-but-lacks-options-to-raise-oil-price", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "https://alphaglider.com/blog/2015/01/14/oil-antibiotics/", "http://www.researchgate.net/publication/281765164", "http://imes.com/2015/12/05/business/energy-environment/opec-meeting-oil-production-price.html?_r=0", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35rErQtJ6uA", "http://www.nyt/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p8H_ESwrWg", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/311.htm", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/15/monday-night-picks/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-naimi-idUSKBN0UD15H20151230", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/3193.htm", "https://youtu.be/Yv02CuIEoxA", "https://youtu.be/nLlVQnPW1lU", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3BDlx_9Tz4", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/66320", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2015/12/04/oil-slumps-as-opec-struggles-to-define-its-own-oil-production-quota/", "http://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2015/03/17/mlps-will-weather-the-storm", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/business/energy-environment/opec-meeting-oil-production-price.html?_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/64124", "http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/04/investing/opec-meeting-oil-prices-saudi-arabia/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-little-changed-as-investors-eye-opec-meeting-1449222485", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-iraq-idUSKBN0U405720151221"] | binary | [["2015-09-01", 0.15], ["2015-09-02", 0.375], ["2015-09-02", 0.4], ["2015-09-02", 0.375], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-02", 0.225], ["2015-09-02", 0.15], ["2015-09-03", 0.16], ["2015-09-03", 0.15], ["2015-09-04", 0.15], ["2015-09-04", 0.17], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.225], ["2015-09-05", 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the establishment or modification of country specific quotas will count.
Although OPEC forecasts an increase in demand for oil, the global oil market remains oversupplied; this a problem that will only be compounded as Iranian oil production increases. www.wsj.com/articles/opec-sees-lower-demand-for-its-oil-despite-higher-global-consumption-1436783908 , www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/saudis-pump-record-crude-as-opec-sees-stronger-demand-in-2016 , www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-02/iran-s-million-barrel-conundrum-brings-battle-back-inside-opec
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3c002a1e-0f4e-11e5-b968-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3fme4bJrl . | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
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"http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/03/obama-to-sign-new-highway-bill-that-revives-exim-bank-on-friday.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-03/house-passes-five-year-305-billion-u-s-highway-funding-plan", "https://www.stratfor.com/about", "http://spacenews.com/ex-im-reauthorization-budget-deal-herald-a-hopefully-saner-u-s-congress/#sthash.YsnjqPek.dpuf", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/262076-senate-propels-ex-im-renewal-to-obamas-desk", "http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/261633-ryan-foresees-good-majority-support-for-highway-bill", "http://www.saic.com/about/about-saic/", "http://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/schumer-highway-bill-will-include-export-import-bank-reauthorization/article_d16e8b90-9856-11e5-b3d0-5b3587d57c5f.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/01/usa-congress-transportation-idUSL1N13Q2VH20151201#XermMvUWQ8oAj95A.97", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/262171-obama-signs-305b-highway-bill", 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["2015-12-04", 0.85], ["2015-12-04", 0.85], ["2015-12-04", 0.85]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/5 | The Export-Import Bank's authorization expired on 1 July, but proponents of the bank are working to get it re-authorized (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/01/business/international/though-charter-is-expiring-export-import-bank-will-keep-its-doors-open.html , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/us/politics/us-export-import-bank-teetering-on-edge.html , http://thehill.com/policy/finance/247953-house-gop-draws-first-in-ex-im-showdown ). Legislation re-authorizing the bank must be signed into law by the President before taking effect. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-04 | Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-01-23 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/stocks-economy-on-verge-of-collapse/", "http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941026001314", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/01/10/966940/kerry-urged-to-secure-post-reporter-s-release", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/08/media/news-outlets-kerry-jason-rezaian/index.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35333656", "http://www.businessinsider.com/us-confirms-iran-has-met-the-requirements-of-landmark-nuclear-deal-2016-1", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/iran-jason-rezaian-prisoners-freed/index.html?sr=twtsr0116iranprisoners", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/world/middleeast/iran-releases-washington-post-reporter-jason-rezaian.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/13/politics/iran-sailors-sanctions-obama/", "http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/16/iran-state-tv-announces-prisoner-swap-deal-for-four-americans-held-in-iran/", "https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/688497254865457152", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/94414", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/world-leaders-gather-in-anticipation-of-ending-iran-sanctions/2016/01/16/6c48f746-bc4b-11e5-829c-26ffb874a18d_story.html?postshare=1391452955875095&tid=ss_tw", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-prisoners-insight-idUSKCN0UR01R20160113", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/31/six-judges-iran-crackdown-journalists-activists", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/87018", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbeWsxWy1XU", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/iran-jason-rezaian-prisoners-freed/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-zarif-idUSKCN0UU0C7", "http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-seizing-us-sailors-lesson-congress-troublemakers-2016-1", "http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iran-prisoners-released-20160116-story.html", 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0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65], ["2016-01-16", 0.65]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/7 | For details of the case involving Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post correspondent being held in Iran, see:
www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/world/middleeast/irans-trial-of-jason-rezaian-illustrates-perils-faced-by-reporters.html www.cbsnews.com/news/lawyer-jason-rezaian-iran-free-washington-post-reporter-iran-nuclear-deal/
www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/lawyer-urges-iran-prison-release-for-post-journalist-in-wake-of-nuclear-deal/2015/07/28/15273ede-350d-11e5-8e66-07b4603ec92a_story.html | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-01-16 | Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-02-08 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/world/asia/north-korea-moves-up-rocket-launching-plan.html?smid=pl-share", "http://www.levantinegroup.com/", "http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/north-korea-is-launching-a-rocket-soon-what-do-we-know-about-it", "http://www.northkoreatech.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Sat-Track-Screenshot-2016-02-07-095731-777x437.jpg", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch-window/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-submarines-india-australia-idUSKCN10Z04G", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-idUSKCN0VG00H", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-submarines-india-minister-idUSKCN10Z0CC?il=0", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-and-u-s-begin-formal-talks-on-missile-shield-1454831176IC", "https://www.northkoreatech.org/2016/02/08/heres-what-we-know-about-kwangmyongsong-4-so-far/", "http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/defense/north-korea-launches-long-range-rocket-kwangmyongsong-4-satellite/#wDhKIgWmPhRxzVJF.99", "http://soufangroup.com/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35515207", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/06/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch-window/", "https://twitter.com/Dest_Pyongyang/status/696148328027856896/photo/1", "http://nyti.ms/1nUeqCo", "http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/defense/north-korea-launches-long-range-rocket-kwangmyongsong-4-satellite/", "https://www.stratfor.com/", "http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nwgs/Wright-Analysis-of-NK-launcher-3-18-09.pdf", "https://www.sofx.com/welcome-to-sofx/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-and-u-s-begin-formal-talks-on-missile-shield-1454831176", "http://www.wired.com/2012/04/noko-lying-launch/", "http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/N.Korea_2012_launch.png", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unha", "http://sofrep.com/"] | binary | [["2015-09-02", 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["2016-02-03", 0.4], ["2016-02-04", 0.4], ["2016-02-04", 0.4], ["2016-02-04", 0.4], ["2016-02-04", 0.4], ["2016-02-05", 0.4], ["2016-02-05", 0.4], ["2016-02-05", 0.4], ["2016-02-05", 0.4], ["2016-02-05", 0.4], ["2016-02-05", 0.4], ["2016-02-05", 0.4], ["2016-02-06", 0.4], ["2016-02-06", 0.4], ["2016-02-06", 0.4], ["2016-02-06", 0.4], ["2016-02-06", 0.4], ["2016-02-06", 0.41], ["2016-02-06", 0.42]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/8 | A launch for military or testing purposes would count, i.e., www.nytimes.com/2012/12/24/world/asia/north-korean-rocket-had-military-purpose-seoul-says.html . The success of the launch, and the actual distance traveled, are irrelevant. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-02-06 | Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2015-10-09 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://www.novelrank.com/asin/0804136696", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/the-power-of-precise-predictions.html", "http://www.novelrank.com/asin/0307408868", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feiler_Faster_Thesis", "http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books/ref=zg_bs_unv_b_1_2689_3", "http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Books-Business-Money/zgbs/books/3/ref=zg_bs_nav_b_1_b", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2013-04-20/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/list.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2015-10-18/e-book-nonfiction/list.html", "http://www.novelrank.com/asin/1594206279", "http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/books/1364796/whats-best-predict-future/", "http://www.amazon.com/Unlikeable-Problem-Hillary-Edward-Klein-ebook/dp/B011H5178A/ref=zg_bs_157325011_43", "http://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Kindle-Store-Nonfiction/zgbs/digital-text/157325011#4", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2015-10-18/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/list.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/08/us-mideast-crisis-intelligence-exclusive-idUSKCN0S20CZ20151008", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/10/09/my-voting-record-on-will-the-book-superforecasting-2015-be-on-the-new-york-times-bestsellers-list-by-the-end-of-october/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trick-to-making-better-forecasts-1443235983", "http://www.talkingelectronics.com/projects/5-Projects/images/The-flip-flop-in-action-complete.gif", "http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/advice-how-to-and-miscellaneous/list.html?pagewanted=print", "http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21666098-forecasting-talent-luckily-it-can-be-learned-unclouded-vision", "http://www.amazon.com/Where-Am-Heaven-Eternity-Beyond/dp/0718042220/ref=zg_bsnr_books_44", "http://seekingalpha.com/article/3535796-tetlock-and-gardner-superforecasting", "http://www.novelrank.com/asin/1451606303", 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For example, we will consider the 20 titles listed from the "Hardcover nonfiction" link and the 15 titles from the "E-book nonfiction" link. | Education & Research | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-10-08 | Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October? | gjopen | 1 |
2015-12-07 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/12/04/us-china-ipo-idUKKBN0TN02O20151204", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/china-bonds-idUSL3N13M2LN20151127#oxOOjdjL7TSZUsjI.99&quot", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-rigged-ipos-1449102648", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-27/china-explosives-maker-prices-ipo-as-share-sales-resume", "http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking_news_detail.asp?id=69315&icid=1&d_str=", "http://www.legalink.ch/Root/Sites/legalink/Resources/Questionnaires/IPOs/Asia/Legalink%20IPO_China.pdf", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/china-stock-index-futures-climb-after-biggest-gain-in-a-month", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/china-s-central-bank-steps-up-cash-injections-amid-ipo-restart", "http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/chinese-shares-reverse-fall-115113000551_1.html", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/30/c_134868871.htm", "http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/Shares-drop-ahead-of-IPOs-next-week/shdaily.shtml", "http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/002783.SZ/key-developments#3XLBAf7LY213veTW.97", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/IPOs-resuming-soon-as-market-regains-calm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/52082", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/asian-futures-signal-more-stock-losses-on-draghi-disappointment", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/53609", "http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-11/30/content_22529946.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/50556", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4-will-there-be-an-initial-public-offering-on-either-the-shanghai-stock-exchange-or-the-shenzhen-stock-exchange-before-1-january-2016/www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/china-bonds-idUSL3N13M2LN20151127#oxOOjdjL7TSZUsjI.99&quot", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/china-bonds-idUSL3N13M2LN20151127#tG7F8LKMhKxSRhrD.97", "http://www.szse.cn/szseWeb/FrontController.szse?ACTIONID=7&AJAX=AJAX-TRUE&CATALOGID=1845&TABKEY=tab2", "http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/china-based-bhg-retail/2315844.html", "https://sg.news.yahoo.com/brief-hubei-kailong-chemicals-ipo-458-8-times-081333828--finance.html", "https://books.google.com/books?id=N8Gf_bdA0zcC&pg=PA336&lpg=PA336&dq=shenzhen+ipo+subscription+listing&source=bl&ots=sgEoYuq7Ps&sig=N8SvInQsRAuCpbr3f6Tk3iuO1IU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjYvITowMHJAhUGQCYKHVGjCsIQ6AEINDAE#v=onepage&q=shenzhen%20ipo%20subscription%20listing&f=false"] | binary | [["2015-09-01", 0.645], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-03", 0.275], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.35], ["2015-09-05", 0.35], ["2015-09-06", 0.35], ["2015-09-06", 0.325], ["2015-09-08", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.33], ["2015-09-10", 0.3], ["2015-09-10", 0.275], 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["2015-11-28", 0.55], ["2015-11-28", 0.55], ["2015-11-29", 0.55], ["2015-11-30", 0.55]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/4 | China suspended initial public offerings (IPOs) in early July (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-04/china-stock-brokers-set-up-19-billion-fund-to-stem-market-rout , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-china-markets-brokerage-pledge-idUSKCN0PE08E20150705 , http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-setting-up-fund-to-stabilize-stock-market-1435991611 ). | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-11-30 | Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2015-09-28 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ed158b66-f304-11e4-b98f-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3ZJwlAvNo", "http://rbth.com/business/2015/08/18/which_countries_have_benefited_from_russias_food_embargo_48587.html", "http://www.levada.ru/eng/", "http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-and-russian-food-embargo-success-story-23073", "http://government.ru/docs/19758/", "http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150916/1027059689/fabius-sanctions-minsk.html#ixzz3ltSFxNyE", "https://www.coursera.org/course/hiddenmessages", "http://www.neweuropeinvestor.com/news/four-new-countrues-added-to-russian-food-ban-list-10508/", "http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/09/russian-regime-in-2015-all-tactics-no-strategy/ih3t", "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2015/06/22-russia-sanctions/", "http://bit.ly/1LIoE14", "http://tuoitrenews.vn/business/21324/80-of-worlds-computer-chips-will-be-made-by-intel-vietnam-by-2015-ceo", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/08/17/Russia-adds-three-California-wines-to-import-ban-list/1271439836987/", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/why-russias-import-ban-has-mostly-failed", "http://www.debevoise.com/~/media/files/insights/publications/2015/07/debevoise_sanctions_alert_issue40.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russias-food-burning-campaign-is-an-irrational-show-of-control/2015/08/27/928f91c4-41ff-11e5-8e7d-9c033e6745d8_story.html", "https://www.rt.com/news/315985-montenegro-resolution-nato-membership/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/16/does-putin-russia-plan-for-syria-military-escalation/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/world/europe/with-rubles-decline-russian-tourists-gain-appreciation-for-the-motherland.html?partner=MYWAY&ei=5065", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/09/02/EU-agrees-to-extend-sanctions-against-Russia/6271441209156/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/13/us-russia-crisis-food-idUSKCN0QI18R20150813", "http://www.internationaltradecomplianceupdate.com/blog.aspx?topic=158", "http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/jobs/locations/russia/sites/moscow.html", "http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a10184/what-happens-if-russia-refuses-to-fly-us-astronauts-16555991/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34174382"] | binary | [["2015-09-01", 0.25], ["2015-09-01", 0.6], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-02", 0.3], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.15], ["2015-09-02", 0.2], ["2015-09-02", 0.225], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.25], ["2015-09-02", 0.235], ["2015-09-02", 0.235], ["2015-09-03", 0.22], ["2015-09-03", 0.21], ["2015-09-03", 0.2], ["2015-09-03", 0.19], ["2015-09-03", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.22], ["2015-09-04", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.21], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.19], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-05", 0.2], ["2015-09-06", 0.2], ["2015-09-07", 0.2], ["2015-09-07", 0.21], ["2015-09-07", 0.22], ["2015-09-08", 0.22], ["2015-09-08", 0.25], ["2015-09-08", 0.25], ["2015-09-09", 0.25], ["2015-09-09", 0.275], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-09", 0.3], ["2015-09-10", 0.275], ["2015-09-10", 0.28], ["2015-09-10", 0.29], ["2015-09-10", 0.28], ["2015-09-10", 0.275], ["2015-09-10", 0.26], ["2015-09-10", 0.25], ["2015-09-10", 0.26], ["2015-09-10", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.26], ["2015-09-11", 0.27], ["2015-09-11", 0.275], ["2015-09-11", 0.27], ["2015-09-11", 0.27], ["2015-09-11", 0.26], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-11", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-12", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.26], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-13", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-14", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/10 | Russia imposed an embargo on food imports from the US, the EU, Canada, Australia, and Norway in August of 2014 as retaliation for western sanctions. In early August, Russia extended the embargo for another year (www.rt.com/business/269644-russia-food-embargo-extension ) and added Iceland, Albania, Montengro, and Liechtenstein to the list of embargoed countries (news.yahoo.com/russia-slaps-food-embargo-more-european-countries-150602238.html). The question refers to the the E.U. member states embargoed by Russia in 2014. If Russia lifts the embargo on any of them, the question will resolve as a yes regardless of their E.U. status when the embargo is lifted.
Last updated 8 September 2015. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-09-17 | Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-01-10 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/02/world/asia/china-japan-and-south-korea-conduct-first-trilateral-meeting-in-3-years.html", "http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/with-trilateral-summit-china-japan-korea-cooperation-completely-restored/", "http://www.dw.com/en/china-japan-south-korea-leaders-to-revive-trilateral-summit/a-18814648", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/18/c_134830635.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/01/us-southkorea-japan-china-idUSKCN0SQ1GV20151101#ga357hG12V5G7Ejk.97", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/us-china-japan-southkorea-idUSKCN0SK0L620151026", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/01/asia/china-korea-japan-talks/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/34491", "http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20151112p2g00m0dm067000c.html", 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annually from 2008 to 2012, but regional tensions led to its cancellation; officials have recently discussed resuming a formal meeting at the leader level:
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/south-korea-s-park-eyes-china-japan-summit-after-kim-showdown www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/20/us-japan-southkorea-china-idUSKBN0P003S20150620
asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Japan-China-South-Korea-consider-autumn-summit | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
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There is no indication that Venice has lifted its ban.
Venice's mayor banned two books from preschool and elementary schools and libraries, both of which deal with gender issues and same-sex couples; the decision came as the country engages in a heated debate over same-sex marriage (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/world/europe/venice-childrens-books-ban.html?_r=0" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/venice-mayor-luigi-brugnaro-vows-gay-pride-ban-after-childrens-book-embargo-1517150" target = "_blank">International Business Times</a>). | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-08-31 | Will the city of Venice lift its ban on "Jean A Deux Mamans" or "Piccolo Uovo" before 1 September 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-08-11 | 2015-09-01 | ["http://www.deccanherald.com/content/552900/detection-polio-virus-worrying.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201607280845.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/4632", "http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/poliomyelitis/en/", "http://www.who.int/topics/poliomyelitis/polio-free/en/", "http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx", "http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2016/08/how-polio-returned-to-nigeria.html", "http://www.who.int/features/qa/64/en/", "http://www.msf.org/en/article/20160720-nigeria-health-disaster-borno-state", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/249086", "http://www.emro.who.int/polio/countries/sudan.html", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201604220408.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/249821", "http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)30890-X/fulltext?elsca1=etoc", 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["2016-08-07", 0.9], ["2016-08-08", 0.9], ["2016-08-10", 0.9], ["2016-08-10", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/14 | This question was closed with the answer "No" on 11 August 2016 with an end date of 10 August 2016. On August 10, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative reported the detection of two cases of wild poliovirus type one in the Borno state of Nigeria, with symptoms detected on 6 July 2016 and 13 July 2016 (<a href="http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx" target="_blank">Global Polio Eradication Initiative</a>). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific time on 9 August 2016.
The last human wild poliovirus case in Africa was diagnosed in Somalia on 11 August 2014 (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-end-of-polio-in-africa/2015/08/20/ba18fd9c-412e-11e5-8e7d-9c033e6745d8_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.who.int/topics/poliomyelitis/polio-free/en/#" target = "_blank">World Health Organization</a>).
Question will be resolved using data from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative or the World Health Organization (<a href = "http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx" target = "_blank">Global Polio Eradication Initiative</a>, <a href = "http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/poliomyelitis/en/" target = "_blank">World Health Organization</a>).
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2017-03-02 | 2015-09-01 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Syria", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-iran-idUSKBN15Q0CR", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-russia-idUSKBN16324L", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-britain-iraq-idUSKBN15Q0RO", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-idUSKBN16122B", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-brokering-analys-idUSKBN15V2QO", "https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-strategic-bombers-propel-syrian-army-western-palmyra/", "http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/assad-says-family-do-not-own-syria--ready-to-be-voted-out/42941416", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-assad-idUSKBN15P1AK", "http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/06/world/meast/bashar-al-assad---fast-facts/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/02/23/syria-peace-talks-resume-but-assad-is-in-the-drivers-seat/?utm_term=.f35ed3758b90", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-rebels-idUSKBN1601BD", "http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/irans-new-way-war-syria", "https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/08/world/middleeast/defiant-assad-vows-to-retake-every-inch-of-syria-from-his-foes.html?_r=0", "http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/syria-army-ramps-up-shelling-near-damascus-ahead-of-talks-1.1981646", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-mistura-idUSKBN15Y0EJ?mod=related&channelName=worldNews", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-syrias-assad-tells-yahoo-news-some-refugees-are-definitely-terrorists-182401926.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-syria-securitycouncil-idUSKBN1631XP", "http://www.bbc.com/news/10338256", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/world/middleeast/russia-syria-war.html?_r=0", "http://plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=9515&SEO=syrian-army-continues-offensive-against-terrorists", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN15P19B", "http://nationalinterest.org/feature/hezbollah-winning-the-war-syria-19229", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-idUSKBN16122B?il=0"] | binary | [["2015-09-02", 0.325], ["2015-09-03", 0.325], ["2015-09-04", 0.3], ["2015-09-05", 0.35], ["2015-09-07", 0.315], ["2015-09-08", 0.315], ["2015-09-09", 0.315], ["2015-09-10", 0.3], ["2015-09-11", 0.3], ["2015-09-11", 0.3], ["2015-09-12", 0.3], ["2015-09-13", 0.3], ["2015-09-14", 0.3], ["2015-09-14", 0.3], ["2015-09-15", 0.3], ["2015-09-15", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-18", 0.3], ["2015-09-18", 0.3], ["2015-09-20", 0.3], ["2015-09-21", 0.3], ["2015-09-22", 0.3], ["2015-09-23", 0.3], ["2015-09-25", 0.3], ["2015-09-26", 0.295], ["2015-09-26", 0.28], ["2015-09-27", 0.28], ["2015-09-28", 0.28], ["2015-09-28", 0.28], ["2015-09-29", 0.28], ["2015-09-29", 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["2017-02-16", 0.01], ["2017-02-17", 0.01], ["2017-02-18", 0.01], ["2017-02-19", 0.01], ["2017-02-20", 0.01], ["2017-02-21", 0.01], ["2017-02-21", 0.01], ["2017-02-22", 0.01], ["2017-02-23", 0.01], ["2017-02-24", 0.01], ["2017-02-25", 0.01], ["2017-02-26", 0.01], ["2017-02-27", 0.01], ["2017-02-28", 0.01], ["2017-02-28", 0.01], ["2017-03-01", 0.01], ["2017-03-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15 | A number of military setbacks have weakened Bashar al-Assad's grip on power and called into question the the commitment of his external supporters (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33762809" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/analysis-syrias-assad-set-be-abandoned-russia-iran-n403581" target = "_blank">NBC News</a>).
In the event that Assad reportedly disappears or flees the capital, the administrator will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Assad returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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</sub>
This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 28 February 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-03-01 | Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-04-01 | 2015-09-07 | ["http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-embattled-president-dilma-rousseff-says-she-will-never-resign-2016-3", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/20/brazil-corruption-impeachment-probe", "http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-biggest-party-dumps-rousseff-2016-3", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8d39a416-f222-11e5-a609-e9f2438ee05b.html#ixzz43xQxmiiS", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/29/brazil-president-dilma-rousseff-closer-impeachment-coalition-partner-quits", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/gitrep-27mar16pm", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/world/americas/dilma-rousseff-president-of-brazil-resists-calls-for-her-resignation.html?_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0WU1AC", "https://apple.news/AkV9gJvGwQVijQ_M88Wp_6Q", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt3ouQKFN9Q", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/30/rolls-royce-cooperate-brazil-investigation-petrobras-bribery", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/03/economist-explains-16", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/18/world/americas/brazil-dilma-rousseff-impeachment-vote.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/world/americas/dilma-rousseff-president-of-brazil-resists-calls-for-her-resignation.html", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=pt&u=http://www.blogdozedefatima.com.br/%3Fp%3D8247&prev=search", "http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-231B-10828", "https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/03/dilma-rousseff-pt-coup-golpe-petrobras-lavajato/", "http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/78444109/unaoil-and-trace-how-the-ahsanis-fooled-the-world", "https://twitter.com/elizondogabriel/status/714895908438204416?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet", 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["2016-03-29", 0.025], ["2016-03-29", 0.02], ["2016-03-29", 0.02], ["2016-03-29", 0.02], ["2016-03-29", 0.02], ["2016-03-30", 0.02], ["2016-03-30", 0.02], ["2016-03-30", 0.02], ["2016-03-30", 0.02], ["2016-03-31", 0.01], ["2016-03-31", 0.01], ["2016-03-31", 0.01], ["2016-03-31", 0.01], ["2016-03-31", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/22 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>According to the constitution of Brazil, President Rousseff would be impeached if the Chamber of Deputies authorizes, by a two-thirds vote, legal proceedings to be initiated against her (<a href="http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2006/teams/willr3/const.htm" target="_blank">Brazilian Constitution</a>).
President Rousseff faces a continuing economic slump, a bribery scandal affecting members of her party, and new legal claims that she broke the nation's fiscal responsibility law (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/17/world/americas/brazilians-protest-to-urge-president-dilma-rousseffs-ouster.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/11/us-brazil-rousseff-impeachment-idUSKCN0QG0BS20150811" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9429ae3c-44f4-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10478" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>).
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2016-09-01 | 2015-09-07 | ["https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2016/07/13/what-the-iran-deal-has-meant-for-saudi-arabia-and-regional-tensions/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-arabia-mecca-hajj.html?_r=0", "http://www.politico.eu/article/dont-write-off-saudi-arabia-diplomatic-charm-offensive-brussels-russia-iran/", "http://www.thenewsteller.com/pakistan/pm-nawaz-coas-raheel-leaves-for-tehran-after-saudi-arabia/31595/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/16/saudi-arabia-strikes-back-3/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/opinion/is-the-iran-saudi-cold-war-heating-up.html?_r=0", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/webtv/reports/2016/07/21/Saudi-FM-Adel-Al-Jubeir-responds-to-Iran-criticism-in-Brussels-.html", "http://www.newsweek.com/2016/09/02/saudia-arabia-iran-cold-war-492880.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17-will-iran-s-president-hassan-rouhani-meet-saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-bin-abdulaziz-al-saud-before-1-september-2016/www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-arabia-mecca-hajj.html?_r=0", "http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2016/may/23/iran-and-islamic-conference-tensions-summit", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "http://nation.com.pk/national/09-Jan-2016/imran-wants-govt-to-mediate-in-saudi-iran-conflict", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-saudi-threat-perceptions-turki-mek-conference.html", "http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/iran/rouhani-heads-to-turkey-for-key-islamic-summit-1.1710984", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/04/islamic-world-leaders-seek-bridge-differences-160414082230514.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", "http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/arabic-press-roundup-handshakes-and-snubs-islamic-summit-376265460#sthash.hMLdUhN7.dpuf", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/207916", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35251917", "http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/saudia-arabia-iran-and-the-new-middle-eastern-cold-war-a-1090725.html", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/10/474442/Saudi-Arabia-MKO-Iran-Massoud-Rajavi", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/03/gitrep-2may16pm/"] | binary | [["2015-09-08", 0.25], ["2015-09-09", 0.21], ["2015-09-09", 0.21], ["2015-09-09", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.14], ["2015-09-10", 0.105], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-12", 0.105], ["2015-09-12", 0.1], ["2015-09-13", 0.1], ["2015-09-14", 0.1], ["2015-09-14", 0.1], ["2015-09-14", 0.1], 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["2016-07-26", 0.01], ["2016-07-27", 0.01], ["2016-07-28", 0.01], ["2016-07-30", 0.01], ["2016-07-31", 0.0], ["2016-08-01", 0.0], ["2016-08-02", 0.0], ["2016-08-03", 0.0], ["2016-08-04", 0.0], ["2016-08-04", 0.0], ["2016-08-06", 0.0], ["2016-08-07", 0.0], ["2016-08-08", 0.0], ["2016-08-09", 0.0], ["2016-08-10", 0.0], ["2016-08-11", 0.0], ["2016-08-12", 0.0], ["2016-08-14", 0.0], ["2016-08-15", 0.0], ["2016-08-16", 0.0], ["2016-08-16", 0.0], ["2016-08-18", 0.0], ["2016-08-18", 0.0], ["2016-08-19", 0.0], ["2016-08-20", 0.0], ["2016-08-22", 0.0], ["2016-08-22", 0.0], ["2016-08-23", 0.0], ["2016-08-24", 0.0], ["2016-08-25", 0.0], ["2016-08-25", 0.0], ["2016-08-27", 0.0], ["2016-08-28", 0.0], ["2016-08-29", 0.0], ["2016-08-29", 0.0], ["2016-08-31", 0.0], ["2016-08-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17 | This question was closed as "B)No" on 31 August 2016. There is no indication that Rouhani and King Salman have met and tensions between the two countries remain high.
Although Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to compete for influence in the Middle East, they have common interests in stabilizing oil prices, controlling domestic unrest, and fighting the Islamic State (<a href = "http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-saudi-arabia-relations-diplomatic-ties-could-resume-despite-yemen-conflict-2036236" target = "_blank">International Business Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1818430-43fc-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#axzz3jPi1qA6j" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a> ).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/19-will-iran-host-a-president-or-prime-minister-from-one-of-the-g7-countries-on-an-official-visit-before-1-july-2016" target = "_blank">Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/137-will-the-us-or-the-un-impose-any-new-sanctions-on-iran-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?</a>
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2017-01-04 | 2015-09-07 | ["http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11A08M", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-trade-belgium-idUSKCN1190L0?il=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/315362", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-mulls-change-tack-us-080209587.html", "https://chemicalwatch.com/50529/eu-us-complete-ghs-analysis-in-ttip-negotiations", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/20/chuck_todd_obamas_failure_to_pass_tpp_illustrates_governments_basic_inability_to_function.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/what-is-ttip-and-six-reasons-why-the-answer-should-scare-you-9779688.html", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/news/eu-us-negotiators-officially-drop-aim-of-concluding-ttip-in-2016/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-21/brexit-talks-loom-large-as-eu-fumbles-trade-deal-with-canada", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-ttip-idUSKCN12I2FZ?il=0", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ttip-trade-deal-agreement-failed-brexit-latest-news-eu-us-germany-vice-chancellor-a7213876.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-ttip-idUSKCN12J10C", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-trade-canada-germany-idUSKCN11P15O?il=0", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/news/ttip-negotiations-in-the-void/", "http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-speaks-out-in-favor-of-keeping-ttip-negotiations-going/a-19538183", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-ministers-scramble-salvage-us-trade-deal-040001311.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-idUSKBN13629G", "https://www.rt.com/news/362907-poland-france-protest-ceta/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-usa-ttip-merkel-idUSKCN11E332?il=0", "http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/justin-trudeau-brussells-eu-ceta-ttip-toxic-deal-wallonia-a7388841.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_and_Investment_Partnership#Negotiation_progress", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-usa-idUSKCN12T095?il=0", "https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/30/ttip-eu-and-us-trade-negotiators-seek-to-get-talks-back-on-track", "http://www.politico.eu/article/us-officials-float-plan-to-rescue-ttip-step-by-step-transatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-obama/", "https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/world/eu-attempts-breathe-life-maligned-ttip-trade-deal-us/"] | binary | [["2015-09-08", 0.525], ["2015-09-09", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.1], ["2015-09-10", 0.1], ["2015-09-10", 0.105], ["2015-09-11", 0.12], ["2015-09-12", 0.12], ["2015-09-12", 0.1], ["2015-09-13", 0.105], ["2015-09-13", 0.13], ["2015-09-14", 0.14], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-16", 0.15], ["2015-09-17", 0.15], ["2015-09-17", 0.15], ["2015-09-19", 0.175], ["2015-09-20", 0.175], ["2015-09-21", 0.2], ["2015-09-21", 0.2], ["2015-09-23", 0.2], ["2015-09-24", 0.2], ["2015-09-25", 0.2], ["2015-09-25", 0.2], ["2015-09-26", 0.2], ["2015-09-26", 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["2016-12-07", 0.0], ["2016-12-09", 0.0], ["2016-12-11", 0.0], ["2016-12-13", 0.0], ["2016-12-15", 0.0], ["2016-12-17", 0.0], ["2016-12-18", 0.0], ["2016-12-19", 0.0], ["2016-12-20", 0.0], ["2016-12-21", 0.0], ["2016-12-23", 0.0], ["2016-12-24", 0.0], ["2016-12-26", 0.0], ["2016-12-27", 0.0], ["2016-12-28", 0.0], ["2016-12-30", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/18 | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
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<hr>
Resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required.
A final agreement on TTIP has yet to be reached (<a href = "http://epthinktank.eu/2015/06/16/eu-us-negotiations-on-ttip-a-survey-of-current-issues/" target = "_blank">European Parliamentary Research Service</a>, <a href = "https://ustr.gov/ttip" target = "_blank">US Trade Representative</a>).
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2015-12-17 | 2015-09-07 | ["http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/he-fed-s-new-chapter-will-be-written-in-dollar-denominated-oil", "http://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/imagine-a-world-in-2016-where-black-swans-really-do-come-true", "http://www.thetakeaway.org/story/all-eyes-fed-interest-hike/", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/14/markets-fed-week-jittery-mood-business-live?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+CB+thumb&utm_term=143625&subid=1303551&CMP=ema_565b", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SbJIlEd6jA", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/18/most-participants-at-fed-meeting-thought-december-hike-appropriate-minutes.html", "http://jobs.....while/", "http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20151216a1.pdf", "http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/fed-raises-rates-for-first-time-since-2006.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35100030", "http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20151216a.htm", "http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-16/fed-increase-is-the-most-important-thing-ever-oh-wait-", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52ebe58c-a275-11e5-bc70-7ff6d4fd203a.html#slide0", "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/5-the-economist-s-world-in-2016/scores", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/54887", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/junk-bond-misery-backs-fed-case-for-gradual-rate-rise-no-delay", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/upshot/why-very-low-interest-rates-may-stick-around.html", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/16/459989461/federal-reserve-announces-hike-in-short-term-interest-rates", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/the-bizarre-theory-that-says-fed-increases-will-spur-inflation", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/17/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html", "http://happen...subsequent/", 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0.75], ["2015-12-14", 0.75], ["2015-12-14", 0.75], ["2015-12-14", 0.75], ["2015-12-14", 0.75], ["2015-12-14", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/24 | The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (<a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp" target="_blank">http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp</a>). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank">http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm</a>). For more information on interest rates and the recovery of the US economy see <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10475" target="_blank">http://www.theworldin.com/article/10475</a>. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-16 | Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-04-12 | 2015-09-07 | ["http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X119T", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/02/22/451679/Iran-Italy-PM-Renzi-visit-Rouhani", "http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=30417:ncri-urges-italy-s-renzi-to-call-off-trip-to-iran&catid=4:iran-general&Itemid=109", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/02/22/451679/Iran-Italy-PM-Renzi-visit-Rouhani/", "http://ilpiccolo.gelocal.it/trieste/cronaca/2016/03/12/news/il-sincrotrone-iraniano-nasce-a-trieste-1.13113231", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/italy-pm-matteo-renzi-visit-iran-april-12-111252870.html", "http://www.manilatimes.net/breaking_news/italys-renzi-to-make-landmark-visit-to-iran/", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/115649/Italy-PM-Matteo-Renzi-s-schedule-in-Tehran-announced", "http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2016/04/12/news/iran_renzi_a_teheran_il_premier_incontra_rohani-137428977/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-europe-eu-idUSKCN0WB1HV", "https://neurope.eu/article/renzi-will-first-major-western-leader-visit-iran/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-khamenei-idUSKCN0WW0PT", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/18511#.Vv5un8ekyuU", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/300224/Italy-PM-to-visit-Iran-next-week", "http://www.governo.it/agenda/2016-04-12t000000-2016-04-13t000000/visita-di-renzi-iran/4424", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/196458", "http://theiranproject.com/blog/2016/03/23/irans-run-off-parliamentary-elections-set-april-29/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X00ST", "http://www.thelocal.it/20160404/italy-pm-matteo-renzi-to-visit-iran", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/07/gitrep-06apr16pm/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-iran-idUSKCN0X119T", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-iran-arms-idUSKCN0X80MM", 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["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-04", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.75], ["2016-04-05", 0.775], ["2016-04-06", 0.8], ["2016-04-06", 0.75], ["2016-04-06", 0.8], ["2016-04-07", 0.8], ["2016-04-08", 0.8], ["2016-04-09", 0.81], ["2016-04-09", 0.8], ["2016-04-11", 0.8], ["2016-04-11", 0.825], ["2016-04-11", 0.85], ["2016-04-12", 0.85], ["2016-04-12", 0.85]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/19 | The G7 countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
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2015-10-13 | 2015-09-14 | ["http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=250028", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=249860", "http://www.rferl.mobi/a/iranian-parliament-approves-nuke-deal/27300338.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34513363", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/four-ministers-warn-rouhani-economy.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=94841768f4-October_06_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-94841768f4-102297633", "http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/09/247017.htm", "http://news.yahoo.com/iran-nuclear-review-panel-says-deal-flawed-103101551.html", "http://tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=249860", "http://en.trend.az/iran/politics/2440879.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/10/13/world/middleeast/ap-ml-iran-nuclear.html", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/110695/MPs-reject-double-urgency-bill-on-JCPOA-implementation", "https://youtu.be/H5IcRtftyes", "http://en.trend.az/iran/nuclearp/2439987.html", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2015/iran-151004-presstv01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e1537%2elo0ao02gx5%2e1eu7", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/878919", "http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Oct-13/318710-iranian-parliament-passes-bill-approving-nuclear-deal-irna.ashx", "https://youtu.be/OuEN5TjYRCE", "http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151004/1027995370/nuclear-iran-deal-approval.html#ixzz3nirmrX7b", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-iran-nuclear-parliament-idUSKCN0S70F220151013", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iranian-parliament-speaker-urges-decision-nuclear-deal-34234047", "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/1/scores", "http://www.thenational.ae/storyimage/AB/20100930/ARTICLE/309309985/AR/0/&MaxW=640&imageVersion=default&AR-309309985.jpg", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/11-will-congress-pass-a-resolution-disapproving-the-joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/10/04/431942/Iran-parliament-Majlis-JCPOA-motion-", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/12/world/middleeast/iran-tests-long-range-missile-possibly-violating-nuclear-accord.html"] | binary | [["2015-09-14", 0.65], ["2015-09-14", 0.5], ["2015-09-14", 0.65], ["2015-09-14", 0.65], ["2015-09-14", 0.775], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.775], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.775], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.8], ["2015-09-15", 0.825], ["2015-09-15", 0.875], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-15", 0.9], ["2015-09-16", 0.89], ["2015-09-16", 0.88], ["2015-09-16", 0.865], ["2015-09-16", 0.88], ["2015-09-16", 0.865], ["2015-09-16", 0.85], ["2015-09-16", 0.865], ["2015-09-16", 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["2015-10-12", 0.95], ["2015-10-12", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.95], ["2015-10-13", 0.955], ["2015-10-13", 0.96], ["2015-10-13", 0.96], ["2015-10-13", 0.96]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/27 | Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered the Iranian Parliament -- the Islamic Consultative Assembly, or Majles -- to vote on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/04/world/middleeast/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-iran-supreme-leader-nuclear-deal-vote.html ). | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-10-13 | Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015? | gjopen | 1 |
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2015-12-21 | 2015-09-14 | ["http://thehill.com/policy/finance/263122-11t-spending-bill-could-be-unveiled-monday-night", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/15/politics/harry-reid-spending-bill-oil-exports/index.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-14/house-democrats-said-to-be-open-to-lifting-u-s-oil-export-ban-ii6dytba", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/33-will-both-houses-of-congress-pass-legislation-lifting-or-relaxing-the-oil-export-ban-before-1-april-2016/www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212#EIFJhrhbq8rOeV1Q.99", "http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/house-spending-tax-votes-216896", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212#3P4tbaruFIt00Zym.97", "http://news.yahoo.com/oil-export-ban-play-final-stage-talks-budget-183258539--politics.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/congressional-leaders-agree-to-lift-40-year-ban-on-oil-exports-1450242995", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/congress-final-stage-talks-massive-budget-tax-bills-35709143", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35136831", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-export-ban-drags-down-spending-negotiations-1450198702", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/263371-spending-and-tax-deal-ends-crude-oil-export-ban-extends-renewable", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/congress-seen-likely-to-lift-u-s-oil-export-ban-1449874465", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-oilexports-idUSKBN0TU2SX20151212#EIFJhrhbq8rOeV1Q.99", "http://www.economist.com/news/finance-economics/21684531-light-sweet-compromise-puts-end-crude-market-distortions-america-lifts", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/11/us-oil-export-ban-very-likely-to-be-lifted-in-spending-bill-source.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/18/oil-export-ban/", 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Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-18 | Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2015-09-28 | 2015-09-14 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0RL0Z020150921", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-statement-director-generals-visit-iran", "http://www.israelpolicyforum.org/news/ipf-briefing-gary-samore", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/08/20/world/middleeast/ap-iran-nuclear-qa.html?_r=0&referrer=", "http://mobile.tasnimnews.com/en/news/1393/01/01/860587", "http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:46417f21862e443fb9d7e99db4c838e9", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/21/middleeast/iran-nuclear-inspection/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-parchin-idUSKCN0RL0MT20150921?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews", "http://www.i24news.tv/en/mobile#content/86268", "http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iran-nuclear-talks/iaea-chief-heads-iran-push-progress-parchin-site-probe-n430236", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-20/iaea-s-top-inspector-gains-access-to-iran-s-parchin-site-iesqmrqc", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-statement-and-road-map-clarification-past-present-outstanding-issues-regarding-irans-nuclear-program", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-generals-remarks-press-visit-iran", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-atomic-inspectors-visit-irans-parchin-site-1442769344", "http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/86268-150919-nuclear-chief-to-visit-iran-to-push-for-interviews-with-scientists", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/iran-says-ballyhoo-over-parchin-won-t-hinder-iaea-inspection", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/09/21/world/nuclear-watchdog-chief-amano-pays-ceremonial-visit-irans-parchin-military-site/#.Vf9tn99Viko", "http://news.yahoo.com/iranian-nuclear-experts-parchin-samples-without-iaea-irna-080237161.html", "http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-chief-visits-controversial-iran-officials-172223567.html", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-it-gave-iaea-parchin-samples-it-drew-itself/", "http://iranfrontpage.com/views/2015/09/settlement-of-parchin-question-can-be-a-milestone-in-iran-iaea-ties/", "http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/state-dept-irans-parchin-base-conventional-military-site-so-no", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0RL0Z020150921?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/20/us-iran-nuclear-visit-idUSKCN0RK0RX20150920", "https://www.iaea.org/press/?p=5189"] | binary | [["2015-09-14", 0.05], ["2015-09-14", 0.025], ["2015-09-14", 0.01], ["2015-09-14", 0.03], ["2015-09-15", 0.05], ["2015-09-15", 0.075], ["2015-09-15", 0.1], ["2015-09-15", 0.125], ["2015-09-15", 0.15], ["2015-09-15", 0.2], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.215], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.325], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.215], ["2015-09-15", 0.25], ["2015-09-15", 0.215], ["2015-09-15", 0.18], ["2015-09-16", 0.215], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.25], ["2015-09-16", 0.3], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-16", 0.37], ["2015-09-16", 0.39], ["2015-09-16", 0.37], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-16", 0.37], ["2015-09-16", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.25], ["2015-09-17", 0.3], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.35], ["2015-09-17", 0.39], ["2015-09-17", 0.4], ["2015-09-17", 0.4], ["2015-09-17", 0.4], ["2015-09-18", 0.425], ["2015-09-18", 0.425], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-18", 0.475], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-18", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.475], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-19", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.475], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-20", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45], ["2015-09-21", 0.45]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/28 | The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action stipulates that the IAEA will investigate possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, including research conducted at the Parchin military complex. Many argue that in-person, on-site inspections are vital and that video inspections or involvement in post-inspection analyses is not sufficient (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-06/iran-dismisses-reports-of-cleanup-at-parchin-military-complex , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/world/middleeast/prospect-of-self-inspections-by-iran-feeds-opposition-to-nuclear-deal.html ). | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-09-21 | Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-10-04 | 2015-09-14 | ["http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21701793-plans-rein-credit-slowly-take-shape-coming-clean", "https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-09-13/asia-s-junk-bond-rally-rests-on-a-chinese-house-of-cards", "http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a22861/chinas-air-forces-announce-regular-patrols-into-the-west-pacific/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-russia-idUSKCN11H051?ftcamp=crm/email//nbe/FirstFTAsia/product", "http://www.policyforum.net/can-china-disarm-japans-moves-south-china-sea/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-russia-stage-military-drills-china-sea-031204485.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-idUSKCN11Y1ZI?il=0", "http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-air-force-holds-drills-in-western-pacific-for-second-time-this-month-2016-9?r=UK&IR=T", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/439cd7d6-e175-3602-8322-f892c134f0d2/china-and-russia-are.html", "http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/07/japan-distributing-ships-aircraft-in-prep-for-future-showdown-with-china/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/china-formed-second-navy-south-china-sea-2016-9", "http://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-south-china-sea/3531442.html", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/japan-to-boost-south-china-sea-role-with-training-patrols-with-us-minister/ar-BBwcifQ?li=BBmkt5R", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-bombers-send-china-russia-north-korea-message-n647616", "http://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-scrambles-jets-china-makes-025813597.html", "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/air-force-secretary-china-pursuing-militarization-south-china-sea/", "http://www.stripes.com/news/japan-scrambles-jets-after-chinese-planes-fly-over-miyako-strait-1.431096", "https://news.usni.org/2016/09/22/experts-advocate-harder-stance-against-illegal-claims-in-south-china-sea", "http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/09/08/asean-china-rebuild-trust-confidence-region.html", 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An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26cf55ce-58da-11e3-a7cb-00144feabdc0.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bd40ff7a-0447-11e5-a5c3-00144feabdc0.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times 2</a>, <a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/04/should-beijing-establish-an-air-defense-identification-zone-over-the-south-china-sea/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/content/experts-concerned-china-may-soon-establish-southern-adiz/2882795.html" target = "_blank">Voice of America</a>.
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2016-07-06 | 2015-09-14 | ["https://www.google.ca/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/adnan-syed-to-be-given-a-retrial-after-serial-podcast-questioned/amp/?client=ms-android-rogers-ca#", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/30/484225226/adnan-syed-subject-of-serial-podcast-will-get-a-new-trial?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/gitrep-25apr16pm/", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/after-serials-adnan-syeds-drama-7395675", "https://static01.nyt.com/packages/pdf/6.30.16_asyed_order__1_.pdf", "https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/post-nation/wp/2016/06/30/adnan-syed-granted-new-trial-in-serial-case-attorney-says/?client=ms-android-rogers-ca#", "http://www.wbaltv.com/news/adnan-syed-defense-we-proved-our-case-for-murder-retrial/37901428", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innocence_Project", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-maryland-serial-case-idUSKCN0VH1FE", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/16/gitrep-15apr16pm/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/274692", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/08/gitrep-7mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/gitrep-13apr16am/", "http://www.us-sabc.org/i4a/pages/Index.cfm?pageID=3690", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/gitrep-8may16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/36 | This question was closed as "yes" on 30 June 2016: On June 30th, Baltimore City Circuit Judge Martin Welch vacated Syed's conviction (<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/30/484225226/adnan-syed-subject-of-serial-podcast-will-get-a-new-trial" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://serialpodcast.org/posts/2016/07/judge-orders-new-trial-for-adnan-syed" target="_blank">Serial</a>, <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/crime/bs-md-ci-adnan-syed-new-trial-20160630-story.html" target="_blank">Baltimore Sun</a>, <a href="https://static01.nyt.com/packages/pdf/6.30.16_asyed_order__1_.pdf" target="_blank">Court Order via NY Times</a>).
This American Life's "Serial" Podcast, which investigated the 1999 murder case against Adnan Syed, went viral last fall (<a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/aeb8d37c-7af1-11e4-8646-00144feabdc0.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>). His lawyer recently presented new evidence in an appeal to reopen the case (<a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/08/26/adnan-syed-attorney-says-key-evidence-wrong" target = "_blank">US News & World Report</a>).
Last updated 17 September 2015. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-06-30 | Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the "Serial" podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-01-04 | 2015-09-14 | ["http://www.ekathimerini.com/214662/article/ekathimerini/news/cancer-related-deaths-on-the-rise-in-greece", "http://www.amna.gr/english/article/16407/Dep.-Economy-minister:-Most-important-structural-change-needed-in-Greece-is-in-mentality", "http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/12/02/greeces-disabled-people-take-to-the-streets-in-protest-against-cutbacks/", "https://hbr.org/2016/09/greece-needs-to-be-honest-about-the-numbers", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/greece-pm-tsipras-anti-austerity-rhetoric-161213204557541.html", "http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/11/09/what-could-the-donald-trump-victory-mean-for-greece/", "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/12/14/world/europe/ap-eu-greece-bailout.html?_r=0", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/greece-must-reform-or-leave-eurozone-says-german-minister", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/122100/Iran-Greece-stress-political-will-for-expanding-ties", "https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-commission-excludes-grexit-awaits-athens-prior-actions-votes/", "http://www.cityam.com/249549/rip-grexit-citi-says-no-longer-believes-greece-leave-eu", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-dijsselbloem-idUSKBN1321SO", "http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/10/17/eurostat-one-in-three-greeks-live-in-conditions-of-poverty/", "https://www.neweurope.eu/press-release/press-release-contrasting-views-on-the-state-of-greeces-adjustment-programme/", "http://www.ekathimerini.com/214670/article/ekathimerini/news/concern-grows-in-greece-over-turkeys-intentions", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/once-adulated-greek-pm-tsipras-among-least-popular-chiefs/2016/11/30/8012b4b4-b737-11e6-939c-91749443c5e5_story.html?utm_term=.f934b2ec24c6", "http://www.dw.com/en/tourism-boom-in-greece/a-19556345", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-debt-idUSKBN13T0LZ?il=0", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/30 | This question was closed as "no with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Analysts suggest that a "Grexit" from the euro area continues to be a possibility (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/27/eurozone-greece-regling-idUSB4N10100X20150827" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.theweek.co.uk/greek-crisis/64094/greece-crisis-has-bailout-ended-threat-of-grexit" target = "_blank">The Week</a> , <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/26/panagiotis-lafazanis-from-political-unity-party-calls-for-grexit.html" target = "_blank">CNBC</a>).
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2015-11-30 | 2015-09-14 | ["https://youtu.be/1BsCgxZHDiI", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/22/us/politics/joe-biden-will-not-run-for-president.html?referer=http://www.google.com.au/search?q=biden&oq=bid&gs_l=mobile-heirloom-serp.1.2.0i131l3j0l2.1812.2770.0.4810.4.3.0.1.1.0.358.1011.3-3.3.0....0...1c.1.34.mobile-heirloom-serp..0.4.1056.wpZE4BZjnWM", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-joe-biden_56339e26e4b063179912243e", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3299310/Benghazi-probe-Hillary-Clinton-facing-months-FBI-investigation-emails.html", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/21/biden-to-speak-in-rose-garden/?intcmp=hpbt1", "http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article41972739.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/21/politics/joe-biden-not-running-2016-election/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-on-running-for-president-2015-10", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/03/us-presidential-candidate-announcements", 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["2015-11-24", 0.01], ["2015-11-25", 0.01], ["2015-11-25", 0.01], ["2015-11-26", 0.01], ["2015-11-26", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/37 | There is wide speculation about whether Vice President Biden will seek the Democratic nomination (http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/02/politics/biden-florida-president-campaign/ , http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/is-joe-biden-running-for-president/387115/ ).
Please note that Thanksgiving in the United States will be celebrated on November 26, 2015. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-11-26 | Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-01-23 | 2015-09-14 | ["http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-16/iran-has-met-terms-of-international-nuclear-agreement-iaea-says", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/81103", "http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/01/01/461610337/as-iran-moves-swiftly-on-nuclear-deal-sanctions-could-go-soon", "https://www.swift.com/insights/press-releases/update_iran-sanctions-agreement", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-general%E2%80%99s-statement-iran", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/113212/SWIFT-sanctions-to-be-removed-in-coming-days", "http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-nuclear-deal-moves-to-new-phase/3012400.html", "http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-nuclear-deal-implementation-day-could-be-pushed-back-some-companies-already-2203305", "http://www.voanews.com/content/white-house-proposed-bill-would-prevent-us-implementation-of-iran-deal/3141247.html", "http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_PMD_Assessment_2Dec2015.pdf", "https://www.swift.com/about_swift/shownews?param_dcr=news.data/en/swift_com/2015/Iran_sanctions_agreement_update.xml", "http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/ap/kerry-to-meet-iranian-fm-ahead-of-imminent-sanctions-relief/article_9a603dd2-640a-53c0-9337-fce25c6aa7fd.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/15/monday-night-picks/", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/07/14/key-excerpts-joint-comprehensive-plan-action-jcpoa", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-02/iran-undertook-nuclear-bomb-studies-before-2009-iaea-finds", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/19/saturday-afternoon-update/", "http://www.marinetraffic.com/it/ais/home/centerx:51/centery:26/zoom:7", "http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/iran-to-gain-swift-access-to-46bn-if-sanctions-lifted-1.2497086", "http://www.irannewsdaily.com/?lng=en&cid=CMSContent&content=3193", 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["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-16", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9], ["2016-01-17", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/29 | As part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the EU agreed to remove restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT once the IAEA has verified Iranian compliance (https://news.riskadvisory.net/2015/16/iran-summary-of-nuclear-deal-timeline-and-sanctions-relief/ , http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-deal-swift-banking-system-2015-7 , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/iran-likely-to-wait-for-months-to-rejoin-global-banking-system ). For more information on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication see https://www.swift.com/about_swift/index . | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-01-17 | Will restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-02-02 | 2015-09-21 | ["http://thehill.com/video/in-the-news/267773-live-with-kelly-and-michael-race-pigs-to-predict-iowa-caucus-winner", "https://twitter.com/RosieGray/status/693534925782327296", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusforbernie", "http://www.radioiowa.com/2016/01/18/surveying-undecided-iowa-gop-caucus-goers/", "http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.6005&lon=-93.6091#.Vq1tM85yvg4", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2581966/", "https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/f1/59/db/f159db919249de270a208398dc922d7b.jpg", "https://weather.com/news/news/weather-channel-poll-likely-voters-iowa-new-hampshire", "http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/", "http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/", "https://www.google.com/trends/story/US_cu_yHIiXFIBAAC4rM_en", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusforcruz", "http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/01/29/hillarys-corporate-democrats-taking-down-bernie-sanders", "http://journal.ijreview.com/2016/01/252498-said-undecided-iowan-received-controversial-mailer-ted-cruz/", "https://www.quora.com/Would-Bernie-Sanders-make-a-viable-presidential-candidate", "https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yPbNlHxkHEs", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusforhillary", "http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-republicans-iowa-caucuses-20160201-story.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/116034", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/politics/evangelical-voters-2016-iowa/index.html", "http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-support-in-iowa-is-narrow-but-deep/", "http://www.ew.com/recap/the-good-wife-season-7-episode-11", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusfortrump"] | binary | [["2015-09-22", 0.55], 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"http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2016/REG1", "https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/may/23/nfl-concussion-espn-investigation-study-funding", "http://pzfeed.com/breaking-news-roger-goodell-may-resign-soon/", "https://t.co/2mN8ZDaObV", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "http://deadspin.com/nfl-twitter-hacked-announces-roger-goodells-death-1781061387", "http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7502396/commissioner-roger-goodell-gets-extension-2018-season", "http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/in-deflategate-who-is-the-real-cheater-tom-brady-or-roger-goodell/2016/03/03/8d003de0-e172-11e5-8d98-4b3d9215ade1_story.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2016/09/01/after-10-years-of-serious-challenges-roger-goodell-emerges-undiminished-and-unopposed/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_goodell-912pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", 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["2016-07-25", 0.99], ["2016-07-26", 0.99], ["2016-07-29", 0.99], ["2016-07-31", 0.99], ["2016-08-02", 0.99], ["2016-08-03", 0.99], ["2016-08-04", 0.99], ["2016-08-05", 0.99], ["2016-08-06", 0.99], ["2016-08-07", 0.99], ["2016-08-08", 0.99], ["2016-08-09", 0.99], ["2016-08-11", 0.99], ["2016-08-12", 0.99], ["2016-08-14", 0.99], ["2016-08-15", 0.99], ["2016-08-17", 0.99], ["2016-08-18", 0.99], ["2016-08-19", 0.99], ["2016-08-20", 0.99], ["2016-08-21", 0.99], ["2016-08-21", 0.99], ["2016-08-22", 0.99], ["2016-08-23", 0.99], ["2016-08-24", 0.99], ["2016-08-27", 0.99], ["2016-08-28", 0.99], ["2016-08-29", 0.99], ["2016-08-30", 0.99], ["2016-08-31", 0.99], ["2016-09-01", 0.99], ["2016-09-02", 0.99], ["2016-09-02", 0.99], ["2016-09-04", 0.99], ["2016-09-06", 0.99], ["2016-09-07", 0.99], ["2016-09-08", 0.99], ["2016-09-08", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/44 | This question was closed with the answer "Yes" on 9 September 2016 with an end date of 8 September 2016. On 8 September 2016, the first game of the 2016 NFL regular season was held between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos.
Goodell's handling of "deflategate" has some calling for his ouster (<a href = "http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/24/how-does-the-nfls-roger-goodell-stay-in-power-by-acting-like-a-dictator/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a> , <a href = "http://www.si.com/nfl-fan-poll-2014" target = "_blank">Sports Illustrated</a>).
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For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/presidential-candidates/" target=“_blank”>Candidates</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works" target=“_blank”>How the Presidential Primary Works</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/schedule/" target=“_blank”>Schedule</a>.
<br>
<img src='https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/27/Hillary_Clinton_official_Secretary_of_State_portrait_crop.jpg/192px-Hillary_Clinton_official_Secretary_of_State_portrait_crop.jpg' height='100'> <img src='https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/de/Bernie_Sanders.jpg/189px-Bernie_Sanders.jpg' height='100'> <img src='https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Who_is_it.png' height='95'>
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/120-which-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-win-the-iowa-caucuses-on-1-february" target = "_blank">Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/119-which-republican-presidential-candidate-will-win-the-iowa-caucuses-on-1-february" target = "_blank">Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?</a> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-02-10 | Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary? | gjopen | 0 |
2015-09-30 | 2015-09-21 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/24/us-mideast-crisis-russia-airstrikes-idUSKCN0RO01320150924", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/russia-launches-first-airstrikes-against-targets-in-syria-says-us", "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-mideast-crisis-putin-usa-idUSKCN0RR0H820150928", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/world/europe/russia-airstrikes-syria.html", "http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html/", "http://theworldweekly.com/newswire/reader/russia-seizes-the-initiative-on-syria-expecting-peace-talks-in-october-as-world-leaders-gather-at-the-un-general-assembly/4993", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russias-legislature-authorizes-putin-to-use-military-force-in-syria/2015/09/30/f069f752-6749-11e5-9ef3-fde182507eac_story.html", "http://www.dw.com/en/france-carries-out-airstrikes-against-is-in-syria/a-18744167", "http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/russia-syria-defense-official-214265", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34387433", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11898214/Vladimir-Putin-Russia-will-join-coalition-air-strikes-against-Isil-if-it-is-approved-by-Assad.html", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-jets-reportedly-bombed-us-backed-rebels-in-syria-2015-9", "http://www.janes.com/article/54732/russia-to-defend-core-syrian-government-areas?utm_campaign=PC6110_E15%20DF%20NL%20Security%2009_29_15&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/world/europe/putin-military-syria.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/29/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html?eref=rss_world", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11900853/Putin-request-for-use-of-Russian-troops-in-Syria-approved-live.html", "http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-syria-air-strikes/27279381.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/29/world/middleeast/obama-and-putin-clash-at-un-on-mideast-crisis.html?ref=middleeast", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-seizing-the-initiative-in-syria-as-the-us-scrambles-for-answers-2015-9", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/28/leave-it-to-vlad-and-the-supreme-leader-obama-iraq-iran-middle-east/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34399164", "http://www.rt.com/news/317013-parliament-authorization-troops-abroad/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/149173", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34391054"] | binary | [["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.875], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.975], ["2015-09-21", 0.95], ["2015-09-21", 0.975], ["2015-09-21", 0.99], ["2015-09-21", 0.99], ["2015-09-21", 0.975], 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["2015-09-30", 0.95], ["2015-09-30", 0.95]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/42 | Russia has undertaken a military buildup in Syria in recent weeks, leading some to worry that Russia will intervene directly in the conflict (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-exclusive-idUSKCN0R91H720150909 , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/john-kerry-russia-syria.html , http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-syria-russia-assad-obama-2015-9 , http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-russia-syria-20150905-story.html ). | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-09-30 | Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-01-06 | 2015-09-21 | ["http://www.irishnews.com/opinion/columnists/2015/10/22/news/alternative-to-stormont-is-savage-tory-cuts-301428/", "http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/17/northern-ireland-power-sharing-saved", "http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-news/stormont-deal-held-up-by-stand-off-on-national-security-1-7065739", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/peter-robinson-tax-credits-is-latest-roadblock-to-stormont-deal-34154422.html", "http://utv.ie/News/2015/11/17/As-It-Happened-Deal-reached-at-Stormont-49029", "http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/12/theresa-villiers-mp-an-agreement-that-brings-new-hope-to-northern-ireland.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/stormont-house-agreement-offers-most-comprehensive-proposals-yet-for-victims-34145429.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/put-victims-and-survivors-at-the-centre-of-a-new-stormont-deal-34153043.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/44030", "http://nyti.ms/1RLab4S", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/parties-edging-closer-to-stormont-deal-34180807.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/enda-kenny-meets-david-cameron-as-stormont-power-share-rescue-bid-ramped-up-34181914.html", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-talks-may-not-be-concluded-this-week-says-villiers-34188766.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/10/a-super-long-picky-post/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34757808", "http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/deal-reached-in-stormont-talks-on-northern-ireland-1.2433198", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34850196", "http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/theresa-villiers-warns-political-leaders-its-make-your-mind-up-time-34203711.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/60351", 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0.0], ["2015-12-27", 0.0], ["2015-12-27", 0.0], ["2015-12-28", 0.0], ["2015-12-28", 0.0], ["2015-12-28", 0.0], ["2015-12-28", 0.0], ["2015-12-28", 0.0], ["2015-12-28", 0.0], ["2015-12-29", 0.0], ["2015-12-29", 0.0], ["2015-12-29", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/40 | The political crisis in Northern Ireland threatens the power-sharing agreement between the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/northern-irelands-political-crisis-the-assembly-has-delivered-little-so-far-but-most-unionists-and-republicans-want-it-to-survive-10497317.html , http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34217875 , http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/governments-look-to-monday-talks-to-resolve-north-crisis-1.2348462 ). | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2015-12-31", 0.01], ["2015-12-31", 0.01], ["2015-12-31", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/49 | A government shut down occurs when the President and Congress fail to agree on full year or interim funding for government agencies and programs ( http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/congress-shutdown-boehner-planned-parenthood-214122 , https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34680.pdf , http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-annual-budget-deficit-rose-in-july-1439402405 ). | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-01-27 | 2015-09-28 | ["http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/russia-retailers-run-out-of-iphones-as-buyers-eye-ruble-plunge?cmpid=wsdemand", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2016/01/25/apple-dangerously-close-to-being-short-of-december-quarters-revenue-guidance/#2ba5192e4129", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/apple-forecasts-first-sales-drop-since-2003-on-iphone-slowdown", "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/59c763a8-c24c-11e5-b3b1-7b2481276e45.html#axzz3y5oH3kn0", "http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-inc-aapl-q1-2016-earnings-preview-iphone-sales-may-post-first-year-over-year-2278629", "http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/01/20/apple-may-miss-fyq1-and-q2-estimates-on-older-iphone-popularity-says-ubs/", "http://venturebeat.com/2016/01/26/apple-sees-iphone-sales-grow-just-0-4-to-74-8-million-in-q1-2016-ipad-sales-decline-25/", "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/2-just-for-fun-2015/scores", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3412150/Is-iPhone-s-reign-Apple-expected-reveal-handset-s-sales-decline-launched-decade-ago.html", "http://www.macrumors.com/2016/01/26/q1-2016-results/", "http://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/apples-best-india-quarter-yet-as-iphone-shipments-cross-800000/", "http://www.wired.com/2016/01/apple-sold-a-record-number-of-iphones-but-just-barely/?mbid=social_twitter", "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35412892", "http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/26/apple-iphone-sales-slowdown-2007-drop-holiday", "http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35401668", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12121052/Apple-set-to-report-flatlining-iPhone-sales.html", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2016/01/25/apple-dangerously-close-to-being-short-of-december-quarters-revenue-guidance/?utm_campaign=Forbes&utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_channel=Investing&linkId=20656090#6bfd57d24129", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/106761", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/apple-beats-on-earnings-misses-revenue-and-iphone-units-q2-sales-guidance-below-consensus.html", "http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/26/apple-iphone-sales-projected-stagnant-q1-2016", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_stuffing", "http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/136133865650/pha-la-la-a-real-phabulous-holiday", "http://uk.businessinsider.com/apple-q1-earnings-2016-1?r=US&IR=T", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/50725099.cms", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/64692"] | binary | [["2015-09-28", 0.92], ["2015-09-28", 0.89], ["2015-09-28", 0.92], ["2015-09-29", 0.855], ["2015-09-29", 0.86], ["2015-09-29", 0.88], ["2015-09-29", 0.88], ["2015-09-29", 0.92], ["2015-09-29", 0.9], ["2015-09-29", 0.9], ["2015-09-29", 0.9], ["2015-09-29", 0.9], ["2015-09-29", 0.9], ["2015-09-29", 0.9], ["2015-09-29", 0.92], ["2015-09-30", 0.91], ["2015-09-30", 0.92], ["2015-09-30", 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The December quarter, which runs from 27 September 2015 through December 27, 2015 is the first quarter of Apple's 2016 year. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-01-26 | Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-01-04 | 2015-09-28 | ["http://www.businessinsider.com.au/stocks-in-tokyo-are-under-pressure-after-the-bank-of-japan-surprised-markets-with-an-easing-today-2015-12", "http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/18/confusion-over-bank-of-japan-move-pressures-markets-live", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/what-the-worlds-central-banks-are-doing-at-a-glance/2015/12/16/09d43ca2-a430-11e5-8318-bd8caed8c588_story.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/22/reuters-america-update-1-japan-govt-targets-growth-fiscal-reform-in-record-budget-spending-plan.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/boj-keeps-stimulus-unchanged-makes-adjustments-to-jgbs-etfs", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKBN0U034920151218", "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k151218a.pdf", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-japan-announces-extra-easing-measures-2015-12-18", "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/index.htm/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-december-18-2015-2015-12", "http://news.markets/bonds/bank-japan-surprises-markets-modest-increase-stimulus-7039/", "http://www.economist.com/news/finance-economics/21684516-central-bank-joins-effort-get-japanese-companies-spend-their-cash", "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/k151119a.pdf", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-20/the-bank-of-japan-s-2-5-billion-plan-to-buy-non-existent-etfs", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wild-ride-for-dollar-after-bank-of-japans-surprise-easing-move-2015-12-18", "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0f3dd81a-a53e-11e5-97e1-a754d5d9538c.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/boj-is-done-boosting-stimulus-in-view-of-half-of-economists", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/early-christmas-gift-accidental-clustering/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-japan-takes-fresh-action-1450412916", "http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Gp9HP1pbS-sJ:www.ft.com/fastft/2015/12/17/boj-to-get-through-2015-without-touching-policy/+&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/12/18/business/economy-business/boj-keeps-stimulus-unchanged-makes-adjustments-jgb-etf-purchases/#.VnQBEfkrLIV", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/boj-increases-purchases-of-etfs-nikkei-climbs-yen-drops.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/boj-unveils-2-5-billion-etf-boost-to-offset-planned-stock-sales", "http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2015/index.htm/"] | binary | [["2015-09-28", 0.815], ["2015-09-28", 0.675], ["2015-09-28", 0.79], ["2015-09-28", 0.675], ["2015-09-29", 0.765], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.78], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.79], ["2015-09-29", 0.795], ["2015-09-29", 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0.175], ["2015-12-28", 0.175], ["2015-12-28", 0.15], ["2015-12-28", 0.15], ["2015-12-28", 0.15], ["2015-12-29", 0.15], ["2015-12-29", 0.15], ["2015-12-30", 0.15], ["2015-12-30", 0.15], ["2015-12-31", 0.135], ["2015-12-31", 0.12], ["2015-12-31", 0.11], ["2015-12-31", 0.1], ["2015-12-31", 0.1], ["2015-12-31", 0.1], ["2015-12-31", 0.1], ["2015-12-31", 0.1], ["2015-12-31", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/50 | The Bank of Japan may expand its quantitative easing program in an effort to stimulate the economy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/qe-back-in-focus-turns-rally-of-euro-and-yen-into-two-day-wonder , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-15/yen-pares-loss-as-bank-of-japan-refrains-from-adding-to-stimulus ). For more information on quantitative easing see: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/22/quantitative-easing-around-the-world-lessons-from-japan-uk-and-us , http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-5 . | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-01-23 | 2015-10-02 | ["http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/01/01/461610337/as-iran-moves-swiftly-on-nuclear-deal-sanctions-could-go-soon", "http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran/US-hails-Iran-shipment-of-low-enriched-uranium-stockpile-to-Russia-438767", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/iaea-finds-some-iranian-nuclear-weapons-activity-continued-after-2003-1449078659", "http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-nuclear-deal-iranian-compliance-coming-days-john-kerry/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN0U208420151219", "http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/create", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-germany-idUSKBN0UI10M20160104", "http://tass.ru/en/world/847336", "http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20151229-iran-ships-enriched-uranium-to-russia-as-part-of-nuclear-deal", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/iaea-report-on-irans-compliance-with-nuc-idUKL8N14Z40Z", "https://www.rt.com/news/326527-iran-ships-uranium-russia/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0UR1NH20160113", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35335078", "http://www.todayonline.com/mideast/iran-hands-over-stockpile-enriched-uranium-russia", "http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/iran-deal-update-11000-kilograms-of-enriched-uranium-leave-iran-for-russia/", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-director-general%E2%80%99s-statement-iran", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/un-report-iran-deal-compliance-likely-saturday-sources-200039241.html", "http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/12/250876.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/52-will-the-iaea-verify-that-iran-s-uranium-stockpile-has-been-reduced-to-less-than-300-kg-of-low-enriched-uranium-before-1-june-2016#", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35302628", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/iran-ships-uranium-russia-nuclear-deal", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/vienna-iran-iaea-nuclear-deal/", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/52 | As part of the nuclear deal, Iran agreed to reduce its uranium stockpile to less than 300 kg of 3.67% enriched uranium (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/04/240170.htm , http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655 , https://medium.com/the-iran-deal/joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action-5cdd9b320fd ). The IAEA must verify compliance with this aspect of the deal prior to "Implementation Day." For more information on the timeline of the agreement see: https://news.riskadvisory.net/2015/16/iran-summary-of-nuclear-deal-timeline-and-sanctions-relief/ , http://csis.org/ppp/index.htm . | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-01-16 | Will the IAEA verify that Iran's uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
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["2016-06-09", 0.01], ["2016-06-09", 0.01], ["2016-06-11", 0.01], ["2016-06-12", 0.01], ["2016-06-12", 0.005], ["2016-06-14", 0.01], ["2016-06-14", 0.01], ["2016-06-15", 0.0], ["2016-06-16", 0.0], ["2016-06-17", 0.0], ["2016-06-17", 0.0], ["2016-06-18", 0.0], ["2016-06-19", 0.0], ["2016-06-20", 0.0], ["2016-06-20", 0.0], ["2016-06-21", 0.0], ["2016-06-22", 0.0], ["2016-06-22", 0.0], ["2016-06-23", 0.0], ["2016-06-23", 0.0], ["2016-06-24", 0.0], ["2016-06-25", 0.0], ["2016-06-26", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-30", 0.0], ["2016-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/51 | The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (<a href = "http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/nuclear-iran-weekly/how-will-inspections-work-iran-under-nuclear-deal" target = "_blank">Iran Watch</a>).
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2016-04-25 | 2015-10-05 | ["http://www.ew.com/article/2016/01/02/george-rr-martin-thrones-winds-of-winter", "http://www.indiewire.com/article/george-rr-martin-talks-comic-books-taxes-and-hating-game-of-thrones-interviews-20141021", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/81101", "http://www.kpopstarz.com/articles/267733/20160130/winds-winter-release-date-george-r-martin-promises-bittersweet-ending.htm", "http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/01/george-rr-martin-no-winds-of-winter-before-season-6", "http://www.cnet.com/news/the-winds-of-winter-wont-be-done-in-time-for-game-of-thrones-season-6/", "http://pagesix.com/2016/01/02/george-r-r-martin-confesses-to-missing-deadline-for-got-book", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35213335/the-books-not-done---new-game-of-thrones-book-winds-of-winter-delayed-again", "http://www.tor.com/2016/01/13/winds-of-winter-book-publishing-process/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/gitrep-13apr16am/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "https://www.yahoo.com/tv/george-r-r-martin-confirms-132937469.html", "http://grrm.livejournal.com/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/04/24/game-of-thrones-plot-spoilers-first-episode-leaks-online/", "http://amazonadviser.com/2016/03/15/when-will-the-winds-of-winter-by-george-r-r-martin-be-released-on-amazon/", "http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2016/01/02/george-r-r-martin-says-the-winds-of-winter-isnt-finished/", "http://grrm.livejournal.com/465247.html", "http://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/index.html", "http://www.parentherald.com/articles/16302/20160118/the-winds-of-winter-release-date-new-update-george-rr-martin-to-finish-the-book-on-time-twow-more-than-300-pages.htm", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2016/01/02/george_rr_martin_says_winds_of_winter_won_t_be_out_before_game_of_thrones.html", "http://www.inquisitr.com/2844975/the-winds-of-winter-release-date-news-update-3-things-you-need-to-know-before-george-rr-martin-publishes-the-book-in-2017/", "http://winteriscoming.net/2015/11/24/a-martinology-update-when-might-the-winds-of-winter-hit-store-shelves/", "http://io9.gizmodo.com/it-turns-out-the-next-game-of-thrones-book-isnt-late-at-1752719159", "http://www.businessinsider.com/game-of-thrones-winds-of-water-book-delayed-2016-1"] | binary | [["2015-10-05", 0.895], ["2015-10-06", 0.875], ["2015-10-06", 0.75], ["2015-10-06", 0.705], ["2015-10-06", 0.655], ["2015-10-07", 0.55], ["2015-10-07", 0.55], ["2015-10-07", 0.55], ["2015-10-08", 0.55], ["2015-10-09", 0.53], ["2015-10-09", 0.505], ["2015-10-09", 0.5], ["2015-10-09", 0.505], ["2015-10-10", 0.51], ["2015-10-11", 0.505], ["2015-10-12", 0.5], ["2015-10-12", 0.46], ["2015-10-13", 0.48], ["2015-10-13", 0.405], ["2015-10-13", 0.4], ["2015-10-14", 0.4], ["2015-10-14", 0.4], ["2015-10-15", 0.4], ["2015-10-15", 0.4], 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["2016-04-15", 0.0], ["2016-04-16", 0.0], ["2016-04-17", 0.0], ["2016-04-17", 0.0], ["2016-04-18", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-20", 0.0], ["2016-04-21", 0.0], ["2016-04-22", 0.0], ["2016-04-23", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0], ["2016-04-24", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/56 | Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones. In April 2015, George R.R. Martin told Entertainment Weekly that he hoped to release the book prior to the beginning of season 6 (<a href = "http://www.ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date" target = "_blank">Entertainment Weekly</a>, <a href = "http://www.ibtimes.com/winds-winter-may-be-releasing-next-year-unless-meteor-falls-2090340" target = "_blank">International Business Times</a>). The question will close when the release date for the book is announced.
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/55 | This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30/2016.
Despite significant downward pressure on the ringgit, Malaysia's government has promised not to impose capital controls (<a href = "http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/08/21/asian-capital-controls-are-a-real-risk-once-again/" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/72c18c2c-554a-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>). For more information on capital controls, see <a href = "http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/capital-controls" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/55-will-malaysia-impose-capital-controls-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115-will-negotiations-on-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-be-completed-in-2016" target = "_blank">Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?</a> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-09-30 | Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
2015-12-02 | 2015-10-05 | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/52519", "https://apple.news/AQ3doDBA9N96Lha97MybVQQ", "http://agenda.ge/news/46914/eng", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_125211.htm", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/01/nato-to-ask-montenegro-to-join-alliance", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/12/01/uk-nato-montenegro-idUKKBN0TK4BF20151201", "http://www.france24.com/en/20151130-nato-set-invite-montenegro-join-alliance-sources", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125370.htm", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/diplomats-nato-to-invite-montenegro-to-join-alliance/2015/12/01/8fbd3060-9820-11e5-aca6-1ae3be6f06d2_story.html", "http://nyti.ms/1lvDLAK", "http://sputniknews.com/world/20151201/1031034520/nato-montenegro.html", "http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/sources-nato-offer-membership-montenegro-319971", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34981973", "http://news.yahoo.com/nato-set-invite-montenegro-join-alliance-sources-160122506.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-set-to-invite-montenegro-to-join-in-first-expansion-of-alliance-since-2009-1448908484", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/36216", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/51964", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3342311/NATO-invites-Montenegro-29th-member-alliance.html", "http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2015/11/30/sources-nato-set-invite-montenegro-join-alliance/76567750/", "http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/02/europe/nato-montenegro-membership-invitation/", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-eyes-nato-membership-invitation-11-30-2015", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/47197", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_125358.htm", "http://russia....over/", "http://news.yahoo.com/nato-invites-montenegro-become-29th-member-alliance-073612102.html"] | binary | [["2015-10-05", 0.005], 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year? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-01-05 | 2015-10-19 | ["http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/23/why-the-idea-of-no-fly-zones-in-syria-should-be-grounded/", "http://www.elpais.cr/2015/12/08/argumentos-basados-en-la-resolucion-2249-del-consejo-de-seguridad-en-el-reciente-informe-del-primer-ministro-britanico-sobre-siria-una-necesaria-clarificacion/", "http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-wests-silver-lining-turkey-russia-tensions-14509", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34485827", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/double-median-filter/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/32446", "http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/12/09/pentagon-admits-syrian-russian-opposition-scuttles-no-fly-zone", "http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/14122015", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/paris-tragedy-and-turkish-crisis-cast-fresh-light-on-nato-role-1448463452", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/15/monday-night-picks/", 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A no-fly zone has been discussed as a potential way to protect civilians and humanitarian workers in Syria, but Russia's air campaign makes execution more difficult and more dangerous (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-02/putin-has-his-own-no-fly-zone-in-syria , http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cee6fcba-69bf-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-un-assembly-hollande-syria-idUSKCN0RS2D920150928 , http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/27/former-british-general-calls-for-no-fly-zone-over-north-west-syria , http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/02/in-break-with-white-house-clinton-advocates-syria-no-fly-zone/ ). | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year? | gjopen | 0 |
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case, it would be the first-ever against an auto maker for skirting emissions standards (<a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-may-not-face-environmental-criminal-charges-1443567204" target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>).
10/22/2015: The question stem was modified from "pursue a criminal case" to "file criminal charges." | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-03-29 | Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
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"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership#Round_10:_October_2015_in_South_Korea", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/22/c_134842294.htm", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/china-to-work-with-others-to-finalise-16-nation-trade-pact-early-xi", "https://aric.adb.org/fta/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/62480", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-10/28/c_134757333.htm", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/rcep-negotiations-still/2283112.html", "http://www.tax-news.com/news/ASEAN_Reinforces_Commitment_to_RCEP____69829.html", "http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/rcep/pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/updated-super-picker/", "http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/rcep-talks-india-submits-first-round-of-offers-on-goods/article7896740.ece", 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["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-30", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/66 | RCEP is a regional trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners. (http://www.fta.gov.sg/press_release%5CFACTSHEET%20ON%20RCEP_final.pdf ). The completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership has increased pressure to finalize the deal (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/tpp-deal-pressures-rcep-trade-talks-in-busan-china-keen-for-progress.html ). Resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-03", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-04", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-05", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55], ["2015-12-06", 0.55]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/65 | The continued dominance of Maduro's PSUV is uncertain as Venezuela faces a crumbling economy, a legal scandal, border disputes, and protests (https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venezuelas-next-election-poses-double-threat-leaders , http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/12/venezuela-opposition-leader-jailed-leopoldo-lopez-international-criticism , http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelan-row-colombia-election-ploy-analysts-220608789 ). The election is scheduled for 6 December 2015. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-06 | Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela's National Assembly after the next legislative elections? | gjopen | 0 |
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be considering a trip to PM Abe's hometown later this year (<a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/07/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-meets-putin-advance-bilateral-talks-isle-row-peace-treaty/#.V3J-ufkrLrd" target="_blank">Japan Times 1</a>, <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/18/national/politics-diplomacy/aide-says-putin-visit-year-urges-japan-separate-economic-cooperation-isle-row/#.V3J_BfkrLrd" target="_blank">Japan Times 2</a>)
President Putin and Prime Minister Abe discussed a state visit on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September of 2015, despite US reservations to warming relations (<a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/putin-to-visit-tokyo-as-japan-russia-restart-peace-talks/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = "http://www.japantoday.com/category/opinions/view/will-an-abe-putin-summit-help-ease-russia-and-japans-strained-relations" target = "_blank">Japan Today</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/content/us-raises-concerns-japan-russia-talks-amid-sanctions/27298383.html" target = "_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>).
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2017-01-06 | 2015-11-03 | ["http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/12/beijing-tells-seoul-to-stay-calm-and-carry-on-after-chinese-fishermen-sink-a-south-korean-coast-guard-boat/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/beijing-tells-seoul-stay-calm-205236784.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-china-politics-idUSKBN13204P", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/01/north-korea-tensions-us-will-pay-price-for-thaad-in-south-korea-beijing-peoples-daily-says.html", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/the-asean-crisis-part-1-why-the-south-china-sea-is-a-critical-test/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-philippines-idUSKBN13S05C", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/exclusive-china-installs-weapons-systems-on-artificial-islands-us-think-tank/ar-AAlzhFa?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=HPCDHP", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2045243/unclear-direction-trump-policy-poses-uncertainty", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2045610/trump-change-points-calmer-waters-south-china-sea", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-idUSKBN1441DE", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/rok/2016/rok-161103-sputnik01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e1860%2ekb0ao06eo8%2e1pl7", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence-idUSKBN13S0DA", "http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/12/13/world/asia/13reuters-southchinasea-usa.html?ref=world", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china-drone-idUKKBN1452HV", "https://youtu.be/ItRDHxoPsbc", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/14/501998081/questions-about-chinas-military-training-after-female-fighter-pilot-dies", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summit-philippines-russia-idUSKBN13F09V", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-japan-idUSKBN1360IU", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/us/politics/trump-speaks-with-taiwans-leader-a-possible-affront-to-china.html?emc=edit_na_20161202&nlid=70183565&ref=headline&_r=0", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politics/guam-nuclear-missile-submarine-visit/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-drone-idUSKBN14526J", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/14/recent-developments-surrounding-south-china-sea.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-philippines-idUSKBN13S05C?il=0", "http://www.ibtimes.com/south-china-sea-conflict-indonesia-new-zealand-australia-malaysia-singapore-britain-2425483", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-taiwan-idUSKBN13R2NT"] | binary | [["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-04", 0.23], ["2015-11-04", 0.24], 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["2016-12-24", 0.03], ["2016-12-24", 0.02], ["2016-12-25", 0.02], ["2016-12-26", 0.02], ["2016-12-27", 0.02], ["2016-12-28", 0.02], ["2016-12-29", 0.02], ["2016-12-29", 0.01], ["2016-12-30", 0.01], ["2016-12-31", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/73 | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
For this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities, including civilians killed inadvertently. In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (<a href = "https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/26/u-s-dispatches-warship-to-challenge-chinas-fake-islands/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-southchinasea-usa-china-navy-idUSKCN0SO05320151030" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/the-us-china-south-china-sea-showdown/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (<a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/china-tests-japans-resolve-over-east-china-sea/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = "http://www.cfr.org/japan/sino-japanese-clash-east-china-sea/p30504" target = "_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>).
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2017-01-06 | 2015-11-03 | ["http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/03/14/putin-changes-september-election-rules-to-prop-up-his-united-russia-party/#6a4ce2e458a2", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3771895/The-Latest-Turkish-President-Erdogan-arrives-G-20-summit.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/411165", "https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-reiterates-support-syria/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander", "http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160721/1043373832/russia-warned-turkey-coup-attempt.html", "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-10-04/the-latest-un-official-decries-calamity-in-syrias-aleppo", "http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160902/1044887700/putin-assad-ouster-patience.html", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-ramani/why-putin-is-escalating-r_b_11781280.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-08/russia-has-the-most-boring-election-of-2016", "http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/09/china_and_iran_wont_join_putin.html", "http://www.news.com.au/world/three-russian-submarines-believed-headed-to-launch-missiles-at-syrian-city-of-aleppo/news-story/cad1743bac096b5fe320563c450b0de1", "https://www.rt.com/news/356626-russia-turkey-incirlik-airbase/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-poroshenko-idUSKCN11C0PV", "http://www.levada.ru/2016/07/01/bolshe-40-rossiyan-nazvali-dumskie-vybory-imitatsiej-borby/", "http://www.npr.org/2016/12/30/507517664/u-s-announces-sanctions-against-russia-in-response-to-cyberattacks", "http://www.ibtimes.com/what-natos-article-4-why-turkey-called-consultations-under-rarely-used-provision-2026060", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37779204", "https://www.rt.com/news/362062-missiles-iskander-kaliningrad-nato/", "http://www.dw.com/en/shinzo-abe-and-vladimir-putin-discuss-island-dispute-north-korea/a-19524399", "http://www.rferl.mobi/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5/24626653.html", "http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-vs-putin/27962888.html", "http://europe.newsweek.com/putins-united-russia-drops-polls-ahead-september-elections-494887?rm=eu", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/putin-s-military-buildup-in-the-baltic-stokes-invasion-fears", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/08/tensions-between-us-and-russia-more-dangerous-than-cold-war-as-t/"] | binary | [["2015-11-03", 0.225], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.32], ["2015-11-03", 0.33], ["2015-11-03", 0.275], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-03", 0.25], ["2015-11-04", 0.275], ["2015-11-04", 0.315], ["2015-11-04", 0.33], ["2015-11-04", 0.33], ["2015-11-04", 0.33], ["2015-11-04", 0.33], ["2015-11-04", 0.315], ["2015-11-04", 0.275], ["2015-11-05", 0.25], ["2015-11-05", 0.25], ["2015-11-05", 0.25], ["2015-11-05", 0.25], ["2015-11-06", 0.25], ["2015-11-06", 0.25], ["2015-11-07", 0.25], ["2015-11-07", 0.25], ["2015-11-08", 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0.0], ["2016-12-30", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/70 | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.htm" target = "_blank">NATO</a> ). For more information on Article 4 see <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm" target = "_blank">NATO</a>. NATO has voiced concern about Russia's actions in the Baltics and violations of Turkey's airspace (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/world/europe/russian-violations-of-airspace-seen-as-unwelcome-test-by-the-west.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/08/britain-station-troops-poland-latvia-lithuania-estonia-russian-aggression" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>).
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2016-01-18 | 2015-11-03 | ["http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d98ce7f6-b94c-11e5-b151-8e15c9a029fb.html", "http://www.wral.com/pentagon-2-us-navy-boats-held-by-iran-but-will-be-returned/15229502/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/iran-sanctions-seen-lifted-by-monday-as-nuclear-deal-implemented", "http://www.businessinsider.com/us-confirms-iran-has-met-the-requirements-of-landmark-nuclear-deal-2016-1", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-removes-core-of-arak-reactor-looks-to-sanctions-relief/", "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/iaea-director-general%E2%80%99s-statement-iran", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=252199", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/world/middleeast/iran-arak-reactor.html?_r=0", "http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81916790/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-araq-idUSKCN0UP1Y120160111", "http://www.voanews.com/content/white-house-proposed-bill-would-prevent-us-implementation-of-iran-deal/3141247.html", "http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-us-navy-dispute-live-updates-iranian-military-holds-10-american-sailors-irans-2262162", "http://financialtribune.com/articles/national/34208/jcpoa-comes-effect-week", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-arak-idUSKCN0UQ19G20160112", "http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:9a09ad26de2844efb517e3ab087899d8", "https://twitter.com/ThomasErdbrink/status/687158033844203520", "https://twitter.com/abasinfo", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/world/middleeast/iran-holds-us-navy-boats-crew.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35335078", "https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov-2015-72.pdf", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/16/463168647/u-n-nuclear-watchdog-confirms-iran-nuclear-deal-set-to-be-implemented", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/iran-sanctions-implementation-nuclear-deal.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=256f195440-January_14_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-256f195440-102297633", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pentagon-2-u-s-navy-boats-held-iran-military-n495031", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/middleeast/vienna-iran-iaea-nuclear-deal/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-pours-concrete-into-nuclear-reactor-expects-sanctions-relief/2016/01/11/67011cda-b8a1-11e5-b682-4bb4dd403c7d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-world%3Ahomepage%2Fcard"] | binary | [["2015-11-03", 0.825], ["2015-11-03", 0.845], ["2015-11-03", 0.76], ["2015-11-03", 0.7], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.7], ["2015-11-03", 0.7], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-03", 0.675], ["2015-11-04", 0.65], ["2015-11-04", 0.635], ["2015-11-04", 0.635], 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0.8], ["2016-01-14", 0.8], ["2016-01-15", 0.8], ["2016-01-15", 0.81], ["2016-01-15", 0.83], ["2016-01-15", 0.84], ["2016-01-15", 0.85], ["2016-01-15", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85], ["2016-01-16", 0.85]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/72 | Elections for the Islamic Consultative Assembly and Assembly of Experts are scheduled for 26 February 2016. Although moderates in Iran hope to expedite implementation of the agreement in order to secure sanction relief before the election, the US has estimated that implementation may take as long as six months (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-mechanism-behind-the-iran-nuclear-deal-goes-into-motion/2015/10/18/b69d0fba-8d4d-404a-ba40-ff5930b54908_story.html , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions.html ). For more information on the timeline of the agreement, see http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/07/21-comprehensive-timeline-iran-nuclear-deal , http://csis.org/ppp/index.htm, http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_5_implementation_plan_en.pdf . | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-01-16 | Will "implementation day" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections? | gjopen | 1 |
2016-01-04 | 2015-11-10 | ["http://wire.seenews.com/news/montenegrin-pm-sees-nato-nod-in-dec-elections-in-spring-2016-492113", "http://www.dw.com/en/montenegros-fractious-opposition-takes-to-the-streets/a-18854198", "http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News/Europe/Western/Montenegro", "http://www.rferl.org/content/nato-montenegro-signal-moscow-cannot-stop-enlargement/27403048.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_anti-government_protest_in_Montenegro", "http://peacekeeper.ru/en/?module=news&action=view&id=28639", "http://www.dailynewsmontenegro.com/", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125370.htm", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-opposition-plans-new-wave-of-protest-10-29-2015", "http://sputniknews.com/europe/20151109/1029824230/montenegro-nato-ideology-war.html", "http://wire.seenews.com/news/montenegrin-pm-sees-nato-nod-in-dec-elections-in-spring-2016-49211#", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-opposition-protest-calls-for-free-elections-12-20-2015", "http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21683967-montenegros-accession-fills-one-few-remaining-gaps-western-alliance", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-opposition-plans-to-surround-state-institutions-11-10-2015", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milo_%C4%90ukanovi%C4%87#Controversy", "http://www.cdm.me/english/what-will-mps-ask-djukanovic", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Podgorica", "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegrin-pm-says-he-won-t-resign-10-23-2015", "http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/Why-do-Montenegrins-not-want-to-be-in-NATO.html", "http://www.cdm.me/english/question-time-pm-on-nato-invitation-progress-report-multimillionaires-in-montenegro-privatisations", "http://m.cdm.me/#/article/387081"] | binary | [["2015-11-10", 0.33], ["2015-11-10", 0.29], ["2015-11-10", 0.325], ["2015-11-10", 0.32], ["2015-11-10", 0.285], ["2015-11-10", 0.21], 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["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0], ["2015-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/75 | Demonstrations in the capital have been calling for Prime Minister Djukanovic's ouster (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34630358 , http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/protests-won-t-stop-until-montenegro-pm-resigns-09-28-2015 , https://news.vice.com/article/police-break-up-protests-in-montenegro-with-tear-gas-after-weeks-of-demonstrations ). If Djukanovic reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJ will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Djukanovic returns in the interim, the question will remain open. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2015-12-31 | Will Montenegro's Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-01-07 | 2015-11-10 | ["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35240012", "https://www.ctbto.org/press-centre/press-releases/2013/ctbto-detects-radioactivity-consistent-with-12-february-announced-north-korean-nuclear-test/", "https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-an-atomic-bomb-and-a-hydrogen-bomb", "http://nypost.com/2016/01/05/north-korea-may-have-conducted-another-nuclear-test/", "http://www.afr.com/news/world/north-korea-likely-to-have-conducted-nuclear-test-20160106-gm0b03", "http://www.ccnr.org/Howard_Morland.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_North_Korean_nuclear_program", "https://twitter.com/ctbto_alerts", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test.html?_r=0", "http://newsworldindia.in/world/north-korean-earthquake-near-nuclear-site-sends-panic-across-east-asia-over-possible-atomic-test/167298/", "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/01/06/0200000000AEN20160106005000315.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35240012", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/north-korea-bomb-test-prompts-condemnation.html", "http://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/tremors-reported-near-n-korean-nuclear-site/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2015/dec/09/north-korea-prepares-for-harsh-winter-in-pictures", "http://www.ibtimes.com/hydrogen-bomb-vs-atomic-bomb-fusion-powered-weapon-more-destructive-fission-powered-2251137", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/05/asia/north-korea-seismic-event/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jan/06/north-korea-major-announcement-artificial-earthquake-nuclear-test-site-live", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_Korean_nuclear_test", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/05/asia/north-korea-seismic-event/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/06/north-korean-nuclear-test-suspected-as-artificial-earthquake-detected", "http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/nordkorea-meldet-test-einer-wasserstoffbombe-a-1070660.html", 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North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706 . | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-01-06 | Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
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["2016-06-20", 0.01], ["2016-06-20", 0.01], ["2016-06-20", 0.01], ["2016-06-21", 0.01], ["2016-06-22", 0.01], ["2016-06-22", 0.01], ["2016-06-22", 0.01], ["2016-06-23", 0.01], ["2016-06-23", 0.01], ["2016-06-23", 0.01], ["2016-06-23", 0.01], ["2016-06-24", 0.01], ["2016-06-24", 0.01], ["2016-06-25", 0.01], ["2016-06-26", 0.01], ["2016-06-26", 0.01], ["2016-06-26", 0.01], ["2016-06-26", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-30", 0.0], ["2016-06-30", 0.0], ["2016-06-30", 0.0], ["2016-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/74 | This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Security cooperation remains in place (<a href="http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.712120" target="_blank">Hareetz</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/opinions/tel-aviv-attack-implications-miller/" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/03/palestinian-israeli-security-cooperation-160309091052648.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>).
In 2016, crises elsewhere in the Middle East will distract from the Palestinian question, which smoulders on (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10495" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>). The formal security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) established by the Oslo Accords has only been suspended once, during the second intifada (<a href = "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/palestine-israel-security-cooperation-al-qaeda-global-jihad.html" target = "_blank">Al-Monitor</a>). Although escalating violence has heightened concerns about a new intifada and the Palestinian Liberation Organization attempted to halt cooperation in the spring of 2015, security cooperation between the PA and Israel has continued (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/world/middleeast/caught-between-protesters-and-israel-palestinian-security-forces-shift-tactics.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34446614" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/palestine-authority-israel-security-cooperation-negotiations.html" target = "_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = "http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/preserving-israeli-palestinian-security-cooperation" target = "_blank">Washington Institute</a> ).
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"http://micanaldepanama.com/expansion/2016/03/panama-canal-inaugurates-scale-model-training-facility-announces-expansion-inauguration-date/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.joc.com/port-news/panama-canal-news/panama-canal-locks-officially-open-june-26_20160324.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-22/panama-canal-expansion-seen-open-by-july-after-years-of-setbacks", "http://container-mag.com/2016/03/11/consultancy-chief-sceptical-of-june-opening-of-panama-canal/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0VD07T", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/gitrep-13may2016pm/", "http://www.joc.com/port-news/panama-canal-news/panama%E2%80%99s-new-locks-seen-slowly-gaining-new-container-services_20160125.html", "https://gcaptain.com/panama-canal-expansion-to-open-end-june/", "http://news.co.cr/solid-growth-expected-for-panamas-economy-after-canal-expansion/45757/", 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["2016-05-07", 0.0], ["2016-05-08", 0.0], ["2016-05-08", 0.0], ["2016-05-08", 0.0], ["2016-05-09", 0.0], ["2016-05-09", 0.0], ["2016-05-10", 0.0], ["2016-05-10", 0.0], ["2016-05-11", 0.0], ["2016-05-12", 0.0], ["2016-05-12", 0.0], ["2016-05-13", 0.0], ["2016-05-14", 0.0], ["2016-05-15", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/78 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>The $5 billion expansion will double the capacity of the Panama Canal, allowing much larger ships to transit between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10480" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/06/expanding-the-panama-canal/396716" target="_blank">Atlantic</a>). Expansion is scheduled to be completed in the spring of 2016, but leaks on the Pacific side of the canal may delay the project (<a href="http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/panama-canal-expansion-93-complete/" target="_blank">Hellenic Shipping News</a>, <a href="http://fortune.com/2015/11/02/the-new-panama-canal-is-leaking-water-and-money/" target="_blank">Fortune</a>).
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2016-02-22 | 2015-11-17 | ["http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35621079", "http://www.theage.com.au/world/david-cameron-secures-eu-deal-but-cabinet-colleague-set-to-abandon-the-pm-20160220-gmz3h2.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/world/europe/british-prime-minister-announces-eu-referendum-date.html", "http://theage.com.au/world/david-cameron-secures-eu-deal-but-cabinet-colleague-set-to-abandon-the-pm-20160220-gmz3h2.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12164607/EU-referendum-eu-summit-david-cameron-brexit-live.html", "https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-statement-following-cabinet-meeting-on-eu-settlement-20-february-2016", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/19/eu-summit-all-night-negotiations-deal-cameron-live?page=with:block-56c789f6e4b0f2fd18cafa3c#block-56c789f6e4b0f2fd18cafa3c", "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/19fe32bc-d6db-11e5-8887-98e7feb46f27.html#axzz40LMwqTa1", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166097/david-cameron-cabinet-leave-brexit-EU-referendum-june-23-live.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/world/europe/eu-deal-clears-path-for-british-referendum-on-membership.html?emc=edit_ee_20160220&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=70183565&_r=0", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/19/teabags-and-treachery-but-meals-and-deals-elude-eu-players", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e15b54d6-d751-11e5-829b-8564e7528e54.html", "http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/bbc-banned-leading-news-bulletins-polls-during-eu-referendum-campaign", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-talks-on-eu-reform-enter-second-day-with-issues-still-unresolved-1455869486", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12177363/EU-referendum-Eurosceptic-ministers-reject-claim-Brexit-would-prompt-decade-of-uncertainty-as-pro-EU-camp-accused-of-instigating-Project-Fear-live.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/parliaments", "https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/700794714254086146", "http://www.politico.eu/article/tories-praise-david-camerons-non-existent-eu-brexit-deal/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/lithuanian-president-says-eu-has-reached-deal-with-u-k", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/139334", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/19/eu-summit-all-night-negotiations-deal-cameron-live", "https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/700798241638629377?ref_src=twsrc^tfw", "http://news.yahoo.com/eu-leaders-agree-brexit-deal-lithuania-president-211603383.html", "http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/grossbritannien-und-eu-tage-bis-zur-brexit-wahl-1.2872692"] | binary | [["2015-11-17", 0.33], ["2015-11-17", 0.2], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.15], ["2015-11-18", 0.16], ["2015-11-18", 0.17], ["2015-11-18", 0.16], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 0.16], ["2015-11-19", 0.17], ["2015-11-19", 0.17], ["2015-11-19", 0.15], ["2015-11-19", 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["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85], ["2016-02-20", 0.85]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/80 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Prime Minister Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the UK's membership in the EU before the end of 2017 (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10452" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887" target="_blank">BBC 1</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-33141819" target="_blank">BBC 2</a>).
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2016-04-01 | 2015-11-17 | ["http://www.therussophile.org/foreign-ministry-spokesperson-maria-zakharovas-reply-to-a-media-question-on-russian-assessments-of-the-upcoming-fourth-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington-march-31-april-1-2016.html/", "http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/12/03-three-tasks-for-nuclear-security-summit-benchorin-pifer", "http://www.embrussia.ru/node/597", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/", "http://atimes.com/2016/02/obama-wont-take-no-for-an-answer-from-putin/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/28/power-players-set-to-miss-dc-nuclear-summit.html", "http://russialist.org/russia-to-take-no-part-in-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington-foreign-ministry/", "http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/us-should-provide-arms-military-aid-to-ukraine-eight-ex-officials-say", "http://observer.com/2016/02/welcome-to-cold-war-2-0/", "http://www.nss2016.org/attending-delegations/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russia-to-skip-nuclear-security-summit-scheduled-for-2016-in-washington/2014/11/05/1daa5bca-6535-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html", "http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-not-attending--nuclear-summit/27485448.html", "http://rbth.com/news/2016/01/13/ministry-russia-to-take-no-part-in-nuclear-security-summit-in-washington_558903", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/98916", "http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160113/1033046123/russia-nuclear-summit.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/91312", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/93570", "http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/14343/will-russia-make-nuclear-security-next-victim-of-ukraine-crisis", "http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160113/1033046123/russia-nuclear-summit.html#ixzz3zok9a59U", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/79 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>Russia announced in 2014 that it would not participate in the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, citing concerns that its views would be ignored (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russia-to-skip-nuclear-security-summit-scheduled-for-2016-in-washington/2014/11/05/1daa5bca-6535-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/05/us-nuclear-security-usa-russia-idUSKBN0IP24K20141105#Sc1Fjm4VvmKvV2Ld.97" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For further reading on Russian relations with the rest of the world, see <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/10470" target="_blank">The World in 2016</a> and <a href="http://www.economist.com/topics/russia" target="_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>. The summit is scheduled for 31 March - 1 April 2016.
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2016-12-06 | 2015-11-24 | ["http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/turkey", "http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/08/22/following-july-15-turkey-will-transform-into-one-of-the-most-developed-democracies-in-the-world", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-capital-controls-out-of-the-question-deputy-pm-simsek.aspx?pageID=517&nID=101863&NewsCatID=345", "http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/176053/turkey-in-pursuit-of-24b-foreign-investment", "http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2654978.html", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_control", "http://bloom.bg/2dh4qmo", "http://m.yenisafak.com/en/economy/turkeys-economy-records-over-3-percent-growth-2528892", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-capital-controls-out-of-the-question-deputy-pm-simsek.aspx?pageID=238&nID=101863&NewsCatID=345", "http://aa.com.tr/en/economy/turkish-capital-controls-out-of-the-question/611713", "http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21598649-bail-out-working-bail-isnt-injured-island", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/06/economist-explains-21", "http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/57200/31270", "http://pulitzercenter.org/reporting/welcome-demokrasi-how-erdogan-got-more-popular-ever", "http://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20160809/1044094924/putin-ankara-akkuyu-stream.html", "http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-OEDTAY6K50XT01-67F2N5LCR7CTCB4H9G8D703SI4", "http://aa.com.tr/en/economy/turkeys-current-account-deficit-falls-in-july/643661", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-idUSKCN11F0RV?il=0", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-parliament-votes-to-suspend-talks-on-turkey-joining-the-eu-1479989641", "https://sputniknews.com/business/201610291046874500-erdogan-turkish-economy/", "http://m.sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160901/1044832084/turkey-china-nuclear.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/fce064c9-d261-3123-a8af-5e45f7677115", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/rating", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-erdogan-idUSKCN11Z0XP?il=0"] | binary | [["2015-11-25", 0.71], ["2015-11-25", 0.65], ["2015-11-26", 0.53], ["2015-11-26", 0.61], ["2015-11-27", 0.505], ["2015-11-27", 0.61], ["2015-11-27", 0.61], ["2015-11-28", 0.6], ["2015-11-29", 0.41], ["2015-11-30", 0.405], ["2015-11-30", 0.4], ["2015-12-01", 0.4], ["2015-12-02", 0.39], ["2015-12-02", 0.365], ["2015-12-03", 0.38], ["2015-12-03", 0.365], ["2015-12-04", 0.35], ["2015-12-04", 0.35], ["2015-12-05", 0.35], ["2015-12-05", 0.35], ["2015-12-05", 0.35], ["2015-12-06", 0.35], ["2015-12-06", 0.35], ["2015-12-06", 0.35], ["2015-12-07", 0.365], ["2015-12-07", 0.35], ["2015-12-08", 0.365], ["2015-12-08", 0.35], ["2015-12-09", 0.35], ["2015-12-09", 0.35], ["2015-12-09", 0.35], ["2015-12-10", 0.35], 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["2016-11-19", 0.01], ["2016-11-20", 0.01], ["2016-11-21", 0.01], ["2016-11-22", 0.01], ["2016-11-22", 0.01], ["2016-11-23", 0.01], ["2016-11-24", 0.01], ["2016-11-26", 0.01], ["2016-11-26", 0.01], ["2016-11-27", 0.01], ["2016-11-28", 0.01], ["2016-11-29", 0.0], ["2016-11-30", 0.0], ["2016-11-30", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/84 | This question was closed with the correct answer "No" with an end date of 30 November 2016.
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<hr>
Turkey faces a number of economic challenges that put it at risk for capital flight (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/72c18c2c-554a-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/fear-of-capital-outflow-growing-in-turkeys-economic-circles.aspx?pageID=449&nID=87498&NewsCatID=467" target="_blank">Hurriyet Daily</a>). For more information on capital controls, see <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/capital-controls" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/55-will-malaysia-impose-capital-controls-before-1-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/90-will-either-turkey-or-russia-officially-suspend-or-cancel-the-akkuyu-nuclear-power-plant-project-before-the-end-of-2016" target = "_blank">Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?</a> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-11-30 | Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-02-24 | 2015-11-24 | ["http://ensemble.va.com.au/tableau/suzy/TT_ResearchProjects/Hexen2039/PsyO/mkultra.html", "http://www.soundcloud.com/pabruce", "http://www.janes.com/article/56891/china-commissions-three-vessels-into-south-sea-fleet", "http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/china-military-news/2016-02/22/content_6922983.htm", "http://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/21723/chinese-warships-dock-in-sihanoukville/", "http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/index.htm", "http://io9.gizmodo.com/5838255/every-crazy-cia-plot-youve-heard-of-originated-with-one-man", "http://www.frankolsonproject.org/Articles/Mulholland.html", "https://mccoyote.wordpress.com/mkultra/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/86-will-china-conduct-naval-exercises-with-any-asean-member-before-1-june-2016/www.soundcloud.com/pabruce", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Ewen_Cameron", "http://www.janes.com/article/55839/cambodia-expands-military-ties-with-china", "http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/geoengineering-frankenstorm-hurricane0sandy-and-the-air-force-weather-weapon-system-pt1/", "http://www3.navy.mi.th/index.php/main/detail/content_id/10654&usg=ALkJrhgV9vITM-tjZ2zFDlBjqOZyR2xx7w", "https://www.theguardian.com/science/the-lay-scientist/2016/feb/25/how-real-is-that-atlas-robot-boston-dynamics-video", "http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0129/c98649-9011392.html", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/23/beijing-says-us-defence-of-hawaii-no-different-to-its-deployments-in-south-china-sea", "http://www.janes.com/article/55047/usn-and-southeast-asian-navies-conduct-latest-seacat-exercise", "https://youtu.be/GtHwHdnnvt8", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-china-japan-idUSKCN0VQ152", "http://atimes.com/2016/02/the-us-navys-real-china-challenge-an-anti-access-swarm-strike/", "http://www.janes.com/article/55696/plan-holds-snap-drills-in-south-china-sea", "http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/86 | Tabletop exercises, war games, and simulations will not suffice to resolve the question. China's defense minister has expressed interest in holding joint naval exercises with members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) amidst heightened tensions in the South China Sea; at least one ASEAN member government has welcomed the proposal (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-china-asean-idUSKCN0SA05420151016" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/asean-association-southeast-asian-nations/p18616" target="_blank">CFR</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea.html" target="_blank">NYTimes</a>).
Recommended Questions
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2016-06-22 | 2015-11-24 | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/263425", "http://www.afghan-bios.info/index.php?option=com_afghanbios&id=1740&task=view&total=3315&start=2897&Itemid=2", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/old-names-for-the-nds-and-defence-ministry-nug-proposes-stanakzai-and-abdullah-khan-again/", "http://www.outlookafghanistan.net/national_detail.php?post_id=15397", "http://sputniknews.com/world/20160315/1036305499/nato-afghanistan-humanitarian-aid.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/254824", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_120085.htm", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xjr2hnOHiM", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/struggling-to-get-a-quorum-fiddling-the-figures-and-suspending-mps/", "https://www.khaama.com/intelligence-chief-defense-minister-nominees-introduced-to-parliament-for-voting-01200", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/when-the-political-agreement-runs-out-on-the-future-of-afghanistans-national-unity-government/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/246937", "http://www.khaama.com/afghan-mps-approve-stanikzai-and-habibi-as-nds-and-defense-minister-01306", "http://m.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-ghani-introduces-key-security-nominees-to-parliament/3367539.html", "http://m.voanews.com/a/rejection-of-afghan-defense-minister-nominee-signals-deeper-problems/2851723.html", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-obama-exclusive-idUKKCN0YW055", "http://www.khaama.com/intelligence-chief-defense-minister-nominees-introduced-to-parliament-for-voting-01200", "http://www.outlookafghanistan.net/national_detail.php?post_id=15439", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/19-months-later-afghan-government-lacks-core-ministerial-leadership/", "http://www.voanews.com/content/afghanistan-ghani-introduces-key-security-nominees-to-parliament/3367539.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/249267", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/06/world/asia/afghanistan-lajwardeen-mining-lapis-lazuli.html", 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0.25], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-16", 0.25], ["2016-06-17", 0.25], ["2016-06-17", 0.25], ["2016-06-17", 0.25], ["2016-06-18", 0.25], ["2016-06-18", 0.25], ["2016-06-19", 0.25], ["2016-06-19", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25], ["2016-06-20", 0.25]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/85 | Afghanistan has not had a confirmed Minister of Defense since Ashraf Ghani was sworn in as President in September 2014 (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/04/us-afghanistan-politics-idUSKCN0PE08420150704#2Df5zjLfJbW8jhZO.97" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/rejection-of-afghan-defense-minister-nominee-signals-deeper-problems/2851723.html" target="_blank">Voice of America</a>).
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"http://thespun.com/college-football/fansided-fires-editor-mia-khalifa", "https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2014/mar/31/paper-vs-digital-reading-debate-ebooks-tim-waterstone", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/time-inc-revenue-falls-digital-cant-offset-print-declines-1478173930", "http://www.irishnews.com/business/2016/09/16/news/never-a-better-time-to-advertise-in-print-says-time-ceo-698292/"] | binary | [["2015-12-08", 0.01], ["2015-12-08", 0.01], ["2015-12-08", 0.01], ["2015-12-09", 0.06], ["2015-12-09", 0.18], ["2015-12-09", 0.1], ["2015-12-09", 0.105], ["2015-12-09", 0.1], ["2015-12-09", 0.13], ["2015-12-10", 0.17], ["2015-12-10", 0.17], ["2015-12-10", 0.17], ["2015-12-10", 0.16], ["2015-12-10", 0.22], ["2015-12-11", 0.19], ["2015-12-11", 0.25], ["2015-12-11", 0.25], ["2015-12-11", 0.22], ["2015-12-11", 0.22], ["2015-12-12", 0.2], ["2015-12-12", 0.195], ["2015-12-12", 0.2], ["2015-12-13", 0.2], ["2015-12-13", 0.2], ["2015-12-14", 0.2], ["2015-12-14", 0.195], ["2015-12-14", 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["2016-11-28", 0.015], ["2016-11-29", 0.01], ["2016-11-30", 0.01], ["2016-12-01", 0.01], ["2016-12-02", 0.01], ["2016-12-03", 0.01], ["2016-12-04", 0.01], ["2016-12-05", 0.01], ["2016-12-06", 0.01], ["2016-12-07", 0.01], ["2016-12-09", 0.01], ["2016-12-10", 0.01], ["2016-12-11", 0.01], ["2016-12-11", 0.01], ["2016-12-12", 0.01], ["2016-12-14", 0.01], ["2016-12-15", 0.01], ["2016-12-15", 0.01], ["2016-12-17", 0.01], ["2016-12-18", 0.01], ["2016-12-19", 0.01], ["2016-12-20", 0.01], ["2016-12-21", 0.01], ["2016-12-22", 0.01], ["2016-12-23", 0.01], ["2016-12-25", 0.01], ["2016-12-26", 0.01], ["2016-12-27", 0.01], ["2016-12-29", 0.01], ["2016-12-29", 0.01], ["2016-12-30", 0.005], ["2016-12-31", 0.005]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/94 | This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
In 2012, Newsweek stopped publishing the weekly print edition (<a href = "http://abcnews.go.com/Business/magazines-follow-newsweeks-lead-shuttering-print-version/story?id=17508305" target = "_blank">ABC News</a>). | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-12-31 | Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-03-30 | 2015-12-08 | ["http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35923083", "http://www.irrawaddy.com/burma/htin-kyaw-tipped-as-nld-presidential-nominee.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5q77MQzU2Q", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/03/02/myanmar-parliament-advances-date-for-nominating-president.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-vote-idUSKCN0WH0H0", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/suu-kyi-loyalist-confirmed-myanmar-presidential-race-37568844", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/myanmar-presidential-candidates-announced-htin-kyaw-frontrunner/7236790", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/107-how-many-new-jobs-will-the-us-economy-create-in-january-2016", "https://apple.news/A_aGDCh4BRK6W7hJXa1JNIg", "https://twitter.com/earlywarnproj/status/709763927731806208", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35770535", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/15/asia/myanmar-nld-new-president/index.html", "http://in.reuters.com/article/myanmar-politics-vote-idINKCN0WH0H5", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/aung-san-suu-kyi-to-include-non-party-members-in-myanmar-government-cabinet-03042016161557.html", "http://www.ibtimes.com/suu-kyi-may-settle-foreign-minister-post-break-impasse-over-myanmar-presidency-2327744", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/03/09/world/asia/ap-as-myanmar-politics.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/12/gitrep-11mar16pm/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35808921", "http://www.ibtimes.com/aung-san-suu-kyi-aide-favored-myanmar-presidency-2331349", "https://sg.news.yahoo.com/suu-kyi-party-rebuts-fake-myanmar-president-release-115043293.html?nhp=1", 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1.0], ["2016-03-18", 1.0], ["2016-03-19", 1.0], ["2016-03-19", 1.0], ["2016-03-19", 1.0], ["2016-03-20", 1.0], ["2016-03-20", 1.0], ["2016-03-20", 1.0], ["2016-03-21", 1.0], ["2016-03-21", 1.0], ["2016-03-21", 1.0], ["2016-03-22", 1.0], ["2016-03-22", 1.0], ["2016-03-22", 1.0], ["2016-03-23", 1.0], ["2016-03-23", 1.0], ["2016-03-23", 1.0], ["2016-03-23", 1.0], ["2016-03-23", 1.0], ["2016-03-23", 1.0], ["2016-03-23", 1.0], ["2016-03-24", 1.0], ["2016-03-25", 1.0], ["2016-03-25", 1.0], ["2016-03-25", 1.0], ["2016-03-25", 1.0], ["2016-03-27", 1.0], ["2016-03-28", 1.0], ["2016-03-28", 0.985], ["2016-03-29", 0.985], ["2016-03-29", 0.99], ["2016-03-30", 0.99], ["2016-03-30", 0.99], ["2016-03-30", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/95 | After November's parliamentary elections, the opposition National League for Democracy is on track to form the next government once parliament is seated in January 2016, but longstanding tensions between the NLD and Myanmar's military leaders could derail the process (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/14/world/asia/aung-san-suu-kyi-myanmar-election.html" target = "_blank">NYTimes</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/myanmars-elections-what-now/" target = "_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/15/burmas-militarized-ministries/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.irrawaddy.com/election/news/nld-tight-lipped-as-suu-kyi-starts-military-rapprochement" target = "_blank">Irrawaddy</a>).
3/2/16: Per GJI's <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#resolution5" target = "_blank">time policy</a>, the deadline for this question is 31 March at 11:59:59 Pacific time, which will be 1 April at 1:29:59 pm in Myanmar. Because 1:29 is a somewhat artificial deadline and we want forecasters to focus on the NLD taking office, not the exact timing during the day, we will treat any transition on 1 April (Myanmar time) as counting towards this resolution.
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2017-01-06 | 2015-12-08 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-russia-diplomacy-idUSKBN1481RE", "http://rbth.com/news/2016/10/09/rosatom-ceo-and-turkish-energy-minister-discuss-akkuyu-npp-project_637175", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/343659", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-12/03/c_135878442.htm", "http://rbth.com/news/2016/12/02/turkish-parliament-ratifies-deal-with-russian-on-building-turkish-stream_652887", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/282853", "http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-presses-safe-zone-idea-for-syria-after-recapture-of-key-town-10617255", "https://rbth.com/news/2016/10/09/rosatom-ceo-and-turkish-energy-minister-discuss-akkuyu-npp-project_637175", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-russia-diplomat-gulen-idUSKBN1482A0?il=0", "http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/11/17/russia-turkey-inch-toward-improved-relations", "http://en.special.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52673", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/334598", 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"http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-calls-on-russia-to-lift-sanctions-ease-visa-liberalization-to-boost-trade-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=107304&NewsCatID=345"] | binary | [["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-08", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.65], ["2015-12-09", 0.65], ["2015-12-09", 0.7], ["2015-12-10", 0.7], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.85], ["2015-12-10", 0.795], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.75], ["2015-12-10", 0.725], ["2015-12-11", 0.75], ["2015-12-11", 0.75], ["2015-12-11", 0.78], ["2015-12-12", 0.8], ["2015-12-12", 0.8], ["2015-12-13", 0.8], ["2015-12-13", 0.785], ["2015-12-13", 0.785], ["2015-12-14", 0.79], ["2015-12-14", 0.8], ["2015-12-14", 0.78], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.7], ["2015-12-16", 0.65], ["2015-12-16", 0.65], ["2015-12-16", 0.65], ["2015-12-16", 0.65], ["2015-12-16", 0.625], ["2015-12-17", 0.625], ["2015-12-17", 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["2016-12-27", 0.0], ["2016-12-29", 0.0], ["2016-12-29", 0.0], ["2016-12-30", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/90 | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The fallout from Turkey's downing of a Russian aircraft in November 2015 could have significant ramifications for economic cooperation between the two countries, including disruption of major energy initiatives like the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project (<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/26/this-is-how-russia-could-hurt-turkeys-economy.html" target = "_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/03/us-russia-putin-idUSKBN0TM0YF20151203#GmyBS6l2WdsvllZT.97" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.albawaba.com/business/turkish-russian-relations-what-will-happen-mega-projects-natural-gas-exports-774520">Al Bawaba</a>, <a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/no-decision-taken-freeze-turkish-stream-says-russian-minister-400161" target = "_blank">Newsweek</a>).
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2016-04-01 | 2015-12-08 | ["http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/03/05/453896/Syria-France-Ceasefire-Terrorists-Colmain", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "http://www.voanews.com/content/sixty-five-hundred-coalition-troops-in-iraq-us-wants-more/3172721.html", "http://www.janes.com/article/58361/french-conduct-first-night-air-to-air-helicopter-refuelling", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-france-idUSKCN0VX1C3?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews", "https://www.quora.com/Why-should-you-never-fight-a-land-war-in-Asia", "http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/22/isis-knew-just-where-to-hit-these-u-s-marines.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mali-attacks-idUSKCN0W42G2", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-france-moscows-motives-warming-relations", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/gitrep-31mar16pm/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-islamic-state-is-degraded-but-far-from-being-destroyed/2016/03/08/bc0590fe-e56e-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/166752", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/126530", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/02/u-s-snags-key-isis-leader-as-fight-for-mosul-gets-underway/", "http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-libya-french-special-forces-operating-secret-ground-war-against-daesh-1545759", "http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160227/1035468671/france-syria-ceasefire.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/west-moves-discreetly-libya", "http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/200120163", "http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/03/french-special-forces-target-al-qaeda-commanders-in-mali.php", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12197932/Fingerprints-of-Paris-attacks-fugitive-Salah-Abdeslam-found-in-raided-Brussels-flat.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mTlnrXFAXE", "http://www.france24.com/en/20160225-france-secret-war-libya-islamic-state-group", "http://bigstory.ap.org/urn:publicid:ap.org:bd88bf382b7946ffb9787580e0eb6327"] | binary | [["2015-12-08", 0.455], ["2015-12-08", 0.4], ["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-08", 0.3], ["2015-12-08", 0.315], ["2015-12-08", 0.5], ["2015-12-09", 0.53], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.6], ["2015-12-09", 0.575], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-09", 0.55], ["2015-12-10", 0.53], ["2015-12-10", 0.53], ["2015-12-10", 0.505], ["2015-12-10", 0.51], ["2015-12-10", 0.5], ["2015-12-10", 0.5], ["2015-12-10", 0.5], ["2015-12-10", 0.455], ["2015-12-11", 0.39], ["2015-12-11", 0.375], ["2015-12-11", 0.39], ["2015-12-11", 0.36], 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["2016-03-24", 0.01], ["2016-03-24", 0.01], ["2016-03-25", 0.01], ["2016-03-25", 0.01], ["2016-03-25", 0.01], ["2016-03-26", 0.01], ["2016-03-27", 0.01], ["2016-03-28", 0.01], ["2016-03-28", 0.01], ["2016-03-28", 0.04], ["2016-03-28", 0.04], ["2016-03-29", 0.03], ["2016-03-29", 0.03], ["2016-03-29", 0.03], ["2016-03-29", 0.03], ["2016-03-30", 0.03], ["2016-03-30", 0.03], ["2016-03-30", 0.02], ["2016-03-31", 0.02], ["2016-03-31", 0.02], ["2016-03-31", 0.02], ["2016-03-31", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/96 | After the November attacks in Paris, President Francois Hollande said that France is "at war" with the Islamic State and the French military intensified air strikes on IS targets in Syria (<a href = "http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/619784/Hollande-France-war-ISIS-Paris-attacks" target = "_blank">Daily Express</a>, <a href ="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/paris-attacks-french-official-massive-airstrikes-destroy-2-jihadi-sites-in-syria/" target = "_blank">CBS News</a>).
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2016-05-02 | 2015-12-15 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-idUSKCN0XR04L", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/213530", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-parliament-in-the-balance-in-election-run-off/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/04/29/1061353/voting-underway-in-iran-s-run-off-parliamentary-elections", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/iran-elections-president-rouhanis-moderate-allies-win-second-round-2777397/", "http://www.eurasiareview.com/12052016-the-second-iranian-elections-analysis/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XR04L", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2016/apr/22/iran-runoff-parliamentary-elections-tehranbureau", "http://www.dw.com/en/reformists-ahead-in-irans-parliamentary-elections/a-19226319", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/world/middleeast/iran-ali-larijani.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/179659", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/gitrep-20apr16pm/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Review", "http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0XO0RK", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/ZBup7L4iszUFBYlTLs2NXO/Irans-moderates-make-modest-gains-in-runoff-election.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-start-idUSKCN0XQ09H", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36178276", "http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/01052016", "http://irannewsupdate.com/report-analysis/23-sham-election/2711-election-runoff-in-iran-but-to-what-end.html", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-assembly-experts-chairmanship-jannati-amini-vote.html", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36178276", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/khamenei-hezbollah-condemn-oic-statement-saudi.html"] | binary | [["2015-12-15", 0.7], ["2015-12-15", 0.675], 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Hardliners have held most of the seats in Iran's parliament, the Majles, since 2004, when they overturned a reformist majority (<a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/jun/15/irans-parliamentary-elections-february-2016-similar-turkey" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/13/how-to-get-reelected-if-you-are-an-iranian-mp/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/parliament" target = "_blank">Iran primer</a>). The election is scheduled for 25 February 2016. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-04-29 | Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-01-03 | 2015-12-15 | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-blames-putins-personal-grudge-against-her-for-election-interference/2016/12/16/12f36250-c3be-11e6-8422-eac61c0ef74d_story.html?utm_term=.8e7a87acd2b8", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-hacking.html", "http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/10/16/pence-acknowledges-evidence-russia-behind-cyber-attacks/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2010/03/22/obama-is-making-bushs-big-mistake-on-russia/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38521503", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/02/spicer-trump-has-own-intel-obama-administration-reports-not-gospel.html", "http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/russia-withheld-hacked-rnc-emails-to-help-trumps-campaign-report/", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/08/us/politics/political-divide-on-campuses-hardens-after-trumps-victory.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/world/europe/prague-russian-hacker.html?_r=0", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/01/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-engaging-significant-m", "http://www.computerworld.com/article/3086314/security/russian-hackers-were-behind-dnc-breach-says-fidelis-cybersecurity.html", "http://www.aol.com/article/2016/02/05/barbara-bush-putin-the-killer-endorsed-trump-and-hes-the-worst/21308425/", "http://thehill.com/policy/international/201132-republicans-demand-obama-get-tougher-with-putin-on-ukraine", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-35413134", "http://www.darkreading.com/risk-management/china-cyber-espionage-threatens-us-report-says/d/d-id/1085047", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-hackers-penetrated-us-electricity-grid-through-a-utility-in-vermont/2016/12/30/8fc90cc4-ceec-11e6-b8a2-8c2a61b0436f_story.html", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-officials-putin-personally-involved-u-s-election-hack-n696146", "http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc-news/watch/paul-ryan-russia-sanctions-overdue-843731523702", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/14/dnc-hillary-clinton-emails-hacked-russia-aide-typo-investigation-finds", "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/ukraine.aspx", "http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/news-anchor-warns-russia-could-turn-us-radioactive-dust", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-cyber-ryan-idUSKBN14I1WJ", "http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/178256"] | binary | [["2015-12-15", 0.285], ["2015-12-15", 0.2], ["2015-12-15", 0.16], ["2015-12-15", 0.15], ["2015-12-15", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.17], ["2015-12-16", 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The US imposed sanctions on Russia for malicious cyber activity on that date (<a href = "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/12/29/fact-sheet-actions-response-russian-malicious-cyber-activity-and" target = "_blank">The White House</a> , <a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20161229.aspx" target = "_blank">The Treasury</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-cyber-idUSKBN14I1TY" target = "_blank"> Reuters</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
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Although the US and China agreed to cooperate on cyber security issues during Xi's visit to Washington, President Obama's threats in the wake of the OPM data breach made it clear that the United States is committed to responding to cyber warfare and cyber espionage (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-china-vow-not-to-engage-in-economic-cyberespionage/2015/09/25/90e74b6a-63b9-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/17/us/politics/obama-hints-at-sanctions-against-china-over-cyberattacks.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>). The OPM data breach also propelled cyber security to the top of Europe's agenda (<a href = "http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-10-500_en.htm?locale=en" target = "_blank">EUROPA</a>, <a href = "https://euobserver.com/opinion/129560" target = "_blank">EUobserver</a>).
Recommended Questions
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/113-will-there-be-any-publicly-disclosed-cyber-attacks-on-nuclear-facilities-before-the-end-of-2016" target = "_blank">Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?</a>
<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/137-will-the-us-or-the-un-impose-any-new-sanctions-on-iran-before-18-october-2016" target = "_blank">Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?</a> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-12-30 | Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-01-06 | 2015-12-15 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-montenegro-election-idUSKCN12P2HY?il=0", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/01/spains-socialist-leader-pedro-sanchez-steps-down-to-clear-way-fo/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/world/europe/finger-pointed-at-russians-in-alleged-coup-plot-in-montenegro.html?emc=edit_th_20161127&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/nato-russia-tension-looms-montenegro-vote-161016075223379.html", "https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/photo/_tramp_i_putin_vstali_plechom_k_plechu_v_chernogorii.shtml#!photo=2&full", "https://sputniknews.com/politics/201610171046397341-montenegro-nato-elections/", "http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2016/11/03/1564620.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nato-montenegro-membership-certain-despite-russia-objection/2016/11/03/7e9d1dd4-a1bd-11e6-8864-6f892cad0865_story.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJRaUY3XU88", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/06/montenegro-prosecutor-milivoje-katnic-russian-nationalists-behind-alleged-coup-plot", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/324584", "https://www.bundesrat.de/SharedDocs/drucksachen/2016/0401-0500/497-16(B).pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=1", "http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/10/16/montenegro-elections-beyond-nato-russia-dichotomy/", "https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/kst-34524-4.html", "https://www.neweurope.eu/article/montenegro-heads-polls-nato-membership-stake/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/320746", "https://www.bundesrat.de/SharedDocs/TO/949/tagesordnung-949.html;jsessionid=0E52FD74E4A5689E9E63DE99FE1EC312.2_cid349?cms_topNr=29#top-29", "https://de.sputniknews.com/zeitungen/20161003/312792019/montenegro-nato-wahlkampagne.html", "https://intelnews.org/2016/07/29/01-1949/", "http://www.dtt-net.com/en/index.php?page=view-article&article=10251", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Montenegro_to_NATO", 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At a meeting in December 2015, NATO foreign ministers formally invited Montenegro to start accession talks that are supposed to culminate in Montenegro joining the alliance (<a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125370.htm?selectedLocale=en" target = "_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34981973" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/11/29/another-russian-friend-readies-for-nato-but-corporate-scandals-may-prove-costly/" target = "_blank">Forbes</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/77-before-1-august-2016-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-in-response-to-actions-taken-by-isis" target = "_blank">Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?</a> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-12-31 | Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-04-01 | 2015-12-15 | ["http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/77693599/pakistan-reject-venue-of-twenty20-world-cup-match-against-india", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/gitrep-16mar16pm/", "http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/978185.html", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/2016-asia-cup/top-stories/India-have-99-per-cent-chance-of-winning-World-T20-Sehwag/articleshow/51289783.cms", "http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/266211/icc-promises-vigilance-over-illegal-betting", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/gitrep-10mar16pm/", "http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/winner", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/08/gitrep-7mar16pm/", "http://sports.yahoo.com/news/dhoni-lauds-india-crickets-turnaround-kings-051711707--spt.html;_ylt=AwrXgiI3wfJWkTIALoVNbK5_;_ylu=X3oDMTEyOWExdDM5BGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwM0BHZ0aWQDQjAzMDNfMQRzZWMDc2M-", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/gitrep-24mar16pm/", "http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup", "http://www.ibnlive.com/cricketnext/news/world-t20-margin-of-new-zealand-defeat-must-worry-india-1216688.html", "http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Addictions/can-india-still-win-the-t20-world-cup/", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/35624973", "https://books.google.com.co/books?id=HZc4AAAAQBAJ&pg=PT18&lpg=PT18", "http://www.oddsportal.com/cricket/world/icc-world-twenty20/outrights/", "http://sports.ndtv.com/icc-world-twenty20-2016/news/256256-world-t20-kane-williamson-says-india-are-favorites-to-win-title-at-home", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/gitrep-29mar16pm/", "http://www.newsinsight.net/FixersAndcricket.aspx#page=page-1", 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["2016-03-16", 0.275], ["2016-03-17", 0.26], ["2016-03-17", 0.26], ["2016-03-17", 0.26], ["2016-03-17", 0.26], ["2016-03-17", 0.25], ["2016-03-18", 0.25], ["2016-03-18", 0.25], ["2016-03-18", 0.25], ["2016-03-18", 0.25], ["2016-03-18", 0.25], ["2016-03-19", 0.25], ["2016-03-19", 0.25], ["2016-03-19", 0.25], ["2016-03-19", 0.25], ["2016-03-20", 0.25], ["2016-03-20", 0.25], ["2016-03-20", 0.25], ["2016-03-20", 0.25], ["2016-03-21", 0.25], ["2016-03-21", 0.25], ["2016-03-21", 0.25], ["2016-03-21", 0.25], ["2016-03-21", 0.25], ["2016-03-22", 0.25], ["2016-03-22", 0.25], ["2016-03-22", 0.25], ["2016-03-23", 0.25], ["2016-03-23", 0.25], ["2016-03-23", 0.25], ["2016-03-23", 0.25], ["2016-03-23", 0.25], ["2016-03-23", 0.25], ["2016-03-24", 0.25], ["2016-03-24", 0.25], ["2016-03-24", 0.25], ["2016-03-24", 0.25], ["2016-03-24", 0.25], ["2016-03-25", 0.25], ["2016-03-25", 0.25], ["2016-03-25", 0.25], ["2016-03-25", 0.25], ["2016-03-25", 0.25], ["2016-03-26", 0.25], ["2016-03-26", 0.25], 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style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>India will host the ICC World Twenty20 tournament for the first time from 11 March to 3 April 2016 (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/10487" target = "_blank">The World in 2016</a>, <a href = "http://www.icc-cricket.com/news/2015/media-releases/89915/india-and-south-africa-gear-up-for-icc-world-twenty20-2016" target = "_blank">International Cricket Council 1</a>, <a href = "http://www.icc-cricket.com/team-rankings/t20i" target = "_blank">International Cricket Council 2</a>).
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2017-01-06 | 2015-12-22 | ["http://www.gulf-times.com/story/514924/Going-nuclear-is-the-only-option-N-Korea-tells-UN", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-idUSKCN12708S", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/10/304_217113.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/01/north-korea-tensions-us-will-pay-price-for-thaad-in-south-korea-beijing-peoples-daily-says.html", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/11/22/Former-US-official-calls-for-new-North-Korea-approach/9761479872408/?spt=mps&or=6&sn=tn_int", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-us-s-korea-agree-to-step-up-pressure-on-n-korea/2016/10/27/e4a02946-9c04-11e6-b552-b1f85e484086_story.html", "http://gulfnews.com/opinion/thinkers/the-us-should-talk-with-north-korea-1.1906265", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/11/11/south-koreans-new-united-states-anti-missile-system-north-korea/93643188/", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/25/politics/clapper-north-korea-nuclear-weapons-lost-cause/index.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/leaked-clinton-emails-show-she-114400435.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-southkorea-idUSKBN13508O", "http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-north-korea-un-speech-20160923-snap-story.html", "http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20161023000244#jyk", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN12Z2KU", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-clapper-idUSKCN12P2L7", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/11/14/united-states-allies-alert-north-korea-nuclear-missile-program/93599766/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Early%20Bird%20Brief%2011.15.2016&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/ce114731-9654-3554-82e1-7c98a98c7ff6/ss_analyst%3A-preparations-needed.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-koreas-kim-guides-rocket-engine-test-calls-041014729.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-detects-failed-north-korean-missile-test-pentagon-001538991.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politics/guam-nuclear-missile-submarine-visit/index.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-charges-four-chinese-nationals-and-a-chinese-company-with-aiding-pyongyangs-nuclear-program/2016/09/26/1a7a4b16-8407-11e6-92c2-14b64f3d453f_story.html", "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/10/07/Report-US-Pacific-Command-chief-tells-troops-to-be-ready-to-fight-tonight/3231475866008/", "http://www.reuters.com/video/2016/11/08/us-elections-and-the-trouble-with-north?videoId=370394866&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=morefromreuters", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/world/asia/south-koreas-president-has-no-easy-options-in-dealing-with-an-aggressive-north.html", 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["2016-12-27", 0.0], ["2016-12-28", 0.0], ["2016-12-29", 0.0], ["2016-12-30", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/103 | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
The six party talks are a series of negotiations over dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the US (<a href = "http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/six-party-talks-north-koreas-nuclear-program/p13593" target = "_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>). In October 2015, leaders from China, South Korea, and Japan agreed to work toward resuming the talks which were last held in 2008 (<a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/65bb9728-808a-11e5-84dc-31c8b3b18e5f.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>).
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2017-01-06 | 2015-12-22 | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/146998", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN14I0BV", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/377824", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN14F0OJ?il=0", "http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/25/top-u-s-general-two-more-years-to-beat-isis.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/18/iraq-has-retaken-east-mosul-from-isis-says-army-general", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/320003", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN14C1RW", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/325505", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/101045", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/377694", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/105631", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/91404", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-24/mosul:-us-embeds-more-extensively-to-help-iraqis-retake-city/8147030", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/139624", "http://aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/airstrike-kills-20-injures-scores-in-iraq-s-mosul/713870", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/155871", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/130659", "http://www.understandingwar.org/map/iraq-situation-report-december-15-21-2015", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/387690", "http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/25122016"", "https://www.rt.com/news/371982-isis-iraq-abadi-three-months/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/127756", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/22/the-battle-to-retake-mosul-is-stalemated/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/356859"] | binary | [["2015-12-22", 0.45], ["2015-12-22", 0.45], ["2015-12-23", 0.45], ["2015-12-23", 0.45], ["2015-12-23", 0.475], ["2015-12-23", 0.45], ["2015-12-24", 0.45], ["2015-12-24", 0.49], ["2015-12-25", 0.45], ["2015-12-26", 0.5], 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["2016-12-19", 0.15], ["2016-12-20", 0.15], ["2016-12-20", 0.125], ["2016-12-21", 0.1], ["2016-12-22", 0.1], ["2016-12-23", 0.1], ["2016-12-23", 0.1], ["2016-12-24", 0.1], ["2016-12-26", 0.1], ["2016-12-26", 0.1], ["2016-12-28", 0.09], ["2016-12-29", 0.07], ["2016-12-29", 0.05], ["2016-12-30", 0.05], ["2016-12-31", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/101 | This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. (<a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/22/the-battle-to-retake-mosul-is-stalemated/"target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUKKBN14K08X"target = "_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Mosul still appears firmly in the Islamic State's grasp, even as the Iraqi military seems to be making progress in an effort to retake Ramadi and Kurdish forces have rolled back some of the group's territorial gains in Northern Iraq (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/us/politics/iraqi-forces-prepare-next-us-backed-attack-on-isis-with-mosul-on-horizon.html" target = "_blank">NYTimes</a>, <a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/12/kurds-assault-isis-in-sinjar-with-eyes-on-mosul/" target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/09/life-under-isis-raqqa-mosul-giant-prison-syria-iraq" target = "_blank">Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/iraqi-coalition-forces-repel-islamic-state-counterattack-in-ramadi-1449690502" target = "_blank">WSJ</a>).
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2017-01-06 | 2016-01-05 | ["http://fortune.com/2016/07/30/juncker-migrant-deal-turkey/", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3708369/Where-s-money-Turkish-president-Erdogan-accuses-EU-breaking-pact-migrants-says-owed-2-billion-stopping-entering-Europe.html", "http://naija247news.com/2016/07/merkel-firmly-rejects-calls-reverse-refugee-policy-attacks/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/un-cuts-2016-estimate-for-refugee-arrivals-in-europe-via-greece/", "http://www.vox.com/2016/7/21/12248258/turkey-coup-europe-eu-refugee-migrant-crisis", "http://bazonline.ch/ausland/europa/Tuerkei-stellt-Ultimatum-fuer-Visafreiheit/story/10889764", "http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/turkish-coup-drives-new-wave-of-migrants-across-the-aegean-p750wjxjq", "http://app.ft.com/cms/s/63f43eac-54c1-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60.html?ftcamp=crm/email//nbe/FirstFTEurope/product", "http://www.aina.org/news/20160809122436.htm", "http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-steinmeier-says-no-visa-talks-until-turkey-meets-criteria/a-19460078", "http://app.ft.com/cms/s/48882f9a-5d48-11e6-a72a-bd4bf1198c63.html?ftcamp=crm/email//nbe/FirstFTAmericas/product", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3763499/Thousands-migrants-fished-Med-just-hours-Charity-launches-major-rescue-operation-desperate-refugees-aim-Europe.html", "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/country.php?id=83", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/09/15/UN-235-000-migrants-ready-to-head-to-italy.html", "http://www.ekathimerini.com/210063/article/ekathimerini/news/in-first-half-of-2016-record-number-of-migrants-die-trying-to-cross-mediterranean-iom-says", "http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-and-routes/migratory-routes-map", "http://www.einnews.com/pr_news/334341255/mediterranean-migrant-arrivals-in-2016-230-885-deaths-2-920", "https://www.iom.int/news/migrant-arrivals-mediterranean-reach-264513-deaths-sea-3151", 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["2016-09-15", 0.03], ["2016-09-16", 0.03], ["2016-09-17", 0.03], ["2016-09-18", 0.03], ["2016-09-20", 0.03], ["2016-09-22", 0.02], ["2016-09-23", 0.02], ["2016-09-24", 0.02], ["2016-09-26", 0.02], ["2016-09-28", 0.02], ["2016-09-29", 0.02], ["2016-10-01", 0.02], ["2016-10-02", 0.02], ["2016-10-04", 0.02], ["2016-10-05", 0.02], ["2016-10-07", 0.02], ["2016-10-09", 0.02], ["2016-10-11", 0.02], ["2016-10-13", 0.02], ["2016-10-15", 0.02], ["2016-10-17", 0.01], ["2016-10-19", 0.02], ["2016-10-19", 0.01], ["2016-10-21", 0.01], ["2016-10-22", 0.01], ["2016-10-24", 0.01], ["2016-10-25", 0.01], ["2016-10-27", 0.01], ["2016-10-28", 0.01], ["2016-10-30", 0.01], ["2016-11-01", 0.01], ["2016-11-02", 0.01], ["2016-11-04", 0.01], ["2016-11-07", 0.01], ["2016-11-08", 0.01], ["2016-11-09", 0.01], ["2016-11-12", 0.01], ["2016-11-13", 0.01], ["2016-11-15", 0.01], ["2016-11-17", 0.01], ["2016-11-18", 0.01], ["2016-11-21", 0.01], ["2016-11-22", 0.01], ["2016-11-25", 0.01], ["2016-11-28", 0.01], ["2016-12-02", 0.005], ["2016-12-03", 0.0], ["2016-12-05", 0.0], ["2016-12-06", 0.0], ["2016-12-08", 0.0], ["2016-12-10", 0.0], ["2016-12-12", 0.0], ["2016-12-14", 0.0], ["2016-12-16", 0.0], ["2016-12-18", 0.0], ["2016-12-19", 0.0], ["2016-12-20", 0.0], ["2016-12-22", 0.0], ["2016-12-24", 0.0], ["2016-12-26", 0.0], ["2016-12-27", 0.0], ["2016-12-28", 0.0], ["2016-12-30", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106 | This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. There were 361,678 arrivals by sea in 2016 (<a href = "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php"target = "_blank">UNHCR</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Europe continues to face a refugee crisis, with over one million refugees and migrants having arrived by sea in 2015 (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/12/30/world/europe/ap-eu-europe-migrants.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.iom.int/news/iom-monitors-mediterranean-arrivals-fatalities" target = "_blank">International Organization for Migration</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911" target = "_blank">BBC</a>). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean (<a href = "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php" target = "_blank">UNHCR</a>). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will close once the data for 2016 are released.
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Updated on 4/18/16: The UNHCR link was updated from http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html to http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-12-31 | Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-04-01 | 2016-01-05 | ["http://allafrica.com/stories/201602250881.html", "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Republic-of-the-Congos-rating-to-B1-and--PR_344725", "http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/businesstimes/2016/02/21/No-silver-bullet-for-Gordhan-as-he-prepares-to-deliver-defining-budget", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/gitrep-13mar16pm/", "http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/can-south-africa-avoid-another-credit-rating-downgrade", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/gitrep-16mar16pm/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/south-africa-s-gordhan-seeks-to-appease-investors-on-economy", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-06/why-pravin-gordhan-can-t-quit-as-south-africa-s-finance-chief", "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-places-South-Africas-Baa2-ratings-on-review-for-downgrade--PR_344855", "http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKCN0WB0U5", "http://www.reuters.com/article/safrica-budget-idUSL8N16331Z", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-almost-certain-to-keep-interest-rates-unchanged-at-next-meeting-1452882343", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/gitrep-18mar16pm/", "https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/ProductAttachments/Moody's%20Rating%20System.pdf", "http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1652VA?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0", "http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/southafrica", "http://www.fin24.com/Budget/moodys-happy-about-tax-worried-about-growth-20160225", "http://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/116150/south-africa-has-a-70-chance-of-a-downgrade-economist/", "http://www.sabc.co.za/news/a/e8f570804c0c960d87588f86af38e8be/Moodys-wont-downgrade-SAs-economy-to-junk-status:-Economist---20160316", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201603090325.html", 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0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/109 | In mid-December, President Zuma's dramatic finance minister swap and Moody's change to the country's credit outlook raised questions about the future of the South African economy, currently rated by Moody's as Baa2 (<a href = "https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-South-Africas-rating-outlook-to-negative-from-stable--PR_340947" target = "_blank">Moody's</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e0076cda-a3eb-11e5-873f-68411a84f346.html" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-zuma-idUSKBN0TY1EE20151215" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). For more information on Moody's Global Long Term Rating Scale see page 5 of <a href = "https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/AboutMoodysRatingsAttachments/MoodysRatingSymbolsandDefinitions.pdf" target = "_blank">Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions</a>.
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2016-02-08 | 2016-01-12 | ["http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/020216_7_proposed_emer_reg_text.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/comments010616/index.shtml", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/econ_impact_report_012216.pdf", "http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-california-20160121-htmlstory.html", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/draft_supplier_tiers_012216.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/emergency_reg_digest_conserv_012216.pdf", "http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA", "http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article56090190.html", "http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/.html/wat_table_of_contents.html", "http://www.ocregister.com/articles/snowpack-701151-water-california.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21689612-even-torrential-rain-brought-el-ni-o-may-not-end-californias-drought-all-leaves-are", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/press_room/press_releases/2016/pr2316_reg_extension.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/notice_prop_rulemaking_conserv_012216.pdf", "http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/02/02/californians-miss-water-conservation-targets-for-third-straight-month/", "http://www.wateronline.com/doc/californians-debate-easing-water-restrictions-0001", "http://www.environmental-expert.com/companies/the-shibatani-group-inc-41206", "http://www.swrcb.ca.gov/press_room/press_releases/2016/pr2316_reg_extension.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/publications_forms/publications/factsheets/docs/emergency_reg_fs011916.pdf", "http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/water-officials-vote-extend-california-drought-emergency-36682284", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-set-to-extend-curbs-on-water-use-1454460453", "http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/const-toc.html", "http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-californians-have-their-eye-water-and-jobs-wary", "http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php?getall=1", "http://www.abc10.com/story/news/local/california/2016/01/28/drought-water-restrictions-to-continue/79491236/", "http://www.sfgate.com/drought/article/California-water-limits-might-be-eased-slightly-6762776.php"] | binary | [["2016-01-12", 0.55], ["2016-01-12", 0.65], ["2016-01-12", 0.71], ["2016-01-12", 0.68], ["2016-01-12", 0.74], ["2016-01-12", 0.76], ["2016-01-12", 0.76], ["2016-01-12", 0.785], ["2016-01-12", 0.8], ["2016-01-12", 0.85], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.91], ["2016-01-13", 0.91], ["2016-01-13", 0.95], ["2016-01-13", 0.95], ["2016-01-13", 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["2016-01-31", 0.95], ["2016-01-31", 0.95], ["2016-01-31", 0.95], ["2016-01-31", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-01", 0.95], ["2016-02-02", 0.95], ["2016-02-02", 0.95], ["2016-02-02", 0.95], ["2016-02-02", 0.95], ["2016-02-02", 0.95], ["2016-02-02", 0.95], ["2016-02-02", 0.95]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/111 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>More than 90% of California is experiencing a 'severe drought' or worse (<a href = "http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA" target = "_blank">Drought Monitor</a>). On 1 April 2015, Governor Jerry Brown imposed California's first mandatory water restrictions, requiring a 25% reduction in urban water use until the end of February 2016 (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21647994-why-golden-state-so-bad-managing-water-price-wrong" target = "_blank"><i>The Economist</i></a>, <a href = "https://www.gov.ca.gov/docs/4.1.15_Executive_Order.pdf" target = "_blank">CA Executive Order 1</a>). On 13 November 2015, a further executive order ruled that if drought conditions persist beyond January 2016, water restrictions will be extended until 31 October 2016 (<a href = "https://www.gov.ca.gov/docs/11.13.15_EO_B-36-15.pdf" target = "_blank">CA Executive Order 2</a>).
Any extension of restrictions on urban water use will count, even if there are modifications to those restrictions. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-02-02 | Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016? | gjopen | 1 |
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"http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2016/06/25/russia-announces-2nd-round-naval-exercises-egypt/", "http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/watch-out-china-russia-are-working-together-sea-15767", "http://fusion.net/story/108985/nicaraguas-interest-in-russian-fighter-jets-could-trigger-the-stupidest-arms-race-ever/?utm_source=emailshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=socialshare&utm_content=sticky+nav", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/gitrep-21apr16pm/", "http://lenta.ru/news/2015/09/07/petr/", "http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/russian-naval-expansion-threatens-us-influence-in-the-western-hemisphere?f=must_reads#ixzz46ar8D7uI", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/manual-category-assignment-work-in-progress/", "https://nosi.org/category/russiannavy/", "http://iadb.jid.org/el-consejo-de-delegados/estados-miemros/brazil", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/gitrep-17mar16pm/", 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["2016-06-21", 0.01], ["2016-06-22", 0.01], ["2016-06-22", 0.01], ["2016-06-23", 0.01], ["2016-06-23", 0.01], ["2016-06-24", 0.01], ["2016-06-24", 0.01], ["2016-06-25", 0.01], ["2016-06-25", 0.01], ["2016-06-26", 0.01], ["2016-06-26", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-27", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-28", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-29", 0.0], ["2016-06-30", 0.0], ["2016-06-30", 0.0], ["2016-07-01", 0.0], ["2016-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/112 | This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Russia continues to plan for expanded influence in the Western Hemisphere, and to project naval power more broadly, but has not conducted any exercises during this timeframe (<a href="http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2016/04/21/russian-naval-expansion-threatens-u-s-influence-in-the-western-hemisphere/" target="_blank">Center for Security Policy</a>, <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/russias-pacific-fleet-to-hold-dozens-of-large-scale-exercises-this-summer/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>)
Table top exercises, war games, and simulations would not suffice to resolve the question. Russia conducted military exercises with Venezuela in 2008 and again in 2015 (<a href = "http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Venezuela-Hopes-for-the-Best-Prepares-for-the-Worst-20150314-0003.html" target = "_blank">teleSUR</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/world/americas/09venez.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>). Recently, the Russian government has indicated that it might conduct joint military exercises with forces from Cuba and/or Nicaragua (<a href = "http://europe.newsweek.com/russia-plans-joint-military-drills-north-korea-and-cuba-303836" target = "_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href = "http://www.southernpulse.info/blog/russia-strengthens-ties-with-nicaragua-and-increases-military-presence" target = "_blank">Southern Pulse</a>).
For the purposes of this question, Central America includes Mexico and the Caribbean.
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2017-01-06 | 2016-01-19 | ["http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/rcep-negotiations-may-miss-december-deadline/article9026863.ece", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/china-championed-asia-trade-pact-gains-traction-in-jakarta-talks", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?multinationals-launch-50-lawsuits", "http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade//rcep-status-update", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/318516", "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/tpp-deal-pressures-rcep-trade-talks-in-busan-china-keen-for-progress.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/316791", "http://gbtimes.com/business/asian-nations-call-swift-completion-rcep-trade-talks", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/india-ready-to-abolish-tariff-structure-if-rcep-promises-fdi/articleshow/53626290.cms", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?rcep-talks-may-miss-december-2016", "https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/rcep/news/Documents/rcep-joint-leaders-statement-8-september-2016.pdf", 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["2016-12-20", 0.0], ["2016-12-21", 0.0], ["2016-12-21", 0.0], ["2016-12-22", 0.0], ["2016-12-23", 0.0], ["2016-12-24", 0.0], ["2016-12-25", 0.0], ["2016-12-26", 0.0], ["2016-12-27", 0.0], ["2016-12-27", 0.0], ["2016-12-28", 0.0], ["2016-12-29", 0.0], ["2016-12-30", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0], ["2016-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/115 | This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
RCEP is a regional trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (<a href = "http://www.asean.org/storage/images/2015/October/outreach-document/Edited%20RCEP.pdf" target = "_blank">RCEP Fact Sheet</a>). The completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership increased pressure to finalize the deal but no agreement was reached in 2015 (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/tpp-deal-pressures-rcep-trade-talks-in-busan-china-keen-for-progress.html" target = "blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/12/17/asean-wants-a-rcep-trade-deal-by-the-2016-deadline/" target = "_blank">The Star-Malaysia</a>, <a href = "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/22/c_134842294.htm" target = "_blank">Xinhua</a>). Resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required.
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2017-01-16 | 2016-01-19 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpocracy", "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/russian-hackers-electricity-grid-vermont-233085", "http://www.nti.org/analysis/tools/table/133/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/nuclear-power-plants-vulnerable-hacking-attack-cyber-nightmare-united-nations-a7479546.html", "http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/11/david_gelernter.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cyber-congress-idUSKBN13P2ER", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/28/opinion/why-corruption-matters.html", "http://www.nti.org/media/documents/NTI_CyberThreats__FINAL.pdf", "http://www.nti.org/analysis/atomic-pulse/outpacing-cyber-hackers-preventing-catastrophic-cyberattacks-nuclear-facilities/", "https://youtu.be/DvLCTq5DE5Y", "http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/25/russian-propaganda-media-black-list-includes-the-drudge-report/", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/column-cyber-systems-nourish-poison-us-need-focus-latter/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatocracy", "https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/3c/19/5b/3c195becca70c11e171d2e94fe331fc3.jpg", "http://warontherocks.com/2016/11/trolling-for-trump-how-russia-is-trying-to-destroy-our-democracy/", "http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1033.html", "https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4632358/donald-trump-un-headquarters-renovation", "https://youtu.be/0STS7HBi5Cw", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/russian-propaganda-effort-helped-spread-fake-news-during-election-experts-say/2016/11/24/793903b6-8a40-4ca9-b712-716af66098fe_story.html", "https://youtu.be/_nLfRsReGII", "http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/04/richard_jones_o.html", "https://youtu.be/zqnwWVGCLeU", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/why-mark-zuckerberg-wants-everyone-to-read-henry-kissingers-book-about-world-order/articleshow/50218364.cms", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/403969", "https://youtu.be/jSpBwt4hFN8"] | binary | 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0.045], ["2016-12-18", 0.04], ["2016-12-19", 0.04], ["2016-12-19", 0.04], ["2016-12-20", 0.03], ["2016-12-20", 0.03], ["2016-12-21", 0.03], ["2016-12-22", 0.03], ["2016-12-23", 0.03], ["2016-12-23", 0.03], ["2016-12-24", 0.03], ["2016-12-25", 0.03], ["2016-12-26", 0.03], ["2016-12-26", 0.02], ["2016-12-27", 0.02], ["2016-12-28", 0.02], ["2016-12-29", 0.02], ["2016-12-30", 0.02], ["2016-12-31", 0.015]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/113 | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. In making this decision, the question team carefully reviewed the open source evidence of three different incidents. The first two incidents were reviewed when the initial news broke and again at the end of the year. The third was considered when the 2016 report from the Nuclear Threat Initiative was released.
The first incident was the discovery of malware in a German nuclear power plant in May 2016. At the time, there was insufficient evidence to close question because it was unclear whether the malware was introduced into the system as part of an attack or if it was introduced inadvertently. A clarification relaying this decision was issued at that time. Although NTI counts this incident in their 2016 report (<a href="http://www.nti.org/analysis/reports/outpacing-cyber-threats-priorities-cybersecurity-nuclear-facilities/" target="_blank">NTI</a>), they present no new evidence about the incident and also go on to classify the intent of the act as "unknown" rather than as "intentional" or "accidental." With no additional evidence on how the malware was introduced, our decision in May remains unchanged.
The second incident involved the release of data from a hydrogen isotope research center in Japan. In June, it was revealed that a PC at the facility was infected with a virus in November of 2015 and subject to remote control until late December 2015. Data from the research center was released in March and June of 2016, during the question's open period (<a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/11/national/crime-legal/toyama-tritium-researchers-data-targeted-cyberattacks/#.WG_aDmUyfA5" target="_blank">Japan Times</a>). It is unclear whether all the data was stolen in 2015 and released in 2016, or if some of the released data was acquired by the perpetrators during 2016. However, sources agree that the November 2015 spearfishing attack was what enabled the data to be stolen (<a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/11/national/crime-legal/toyama-tritium-researchers-data-targeted-cyberattacks/#.WG_aDmUyfA5" target="_blank">Japan Times</a>, <a href="http://www.esecurityplanet.com/hackers/hackers-steal-data-from-japanese-nuclear-facility.html" target="_blank">eSecurity Planet</a>), and because the spearfishing attack occurred prior to the question’s open period this incident does not qualify.
The third incident was the at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission/Department of Energy and is listed in the NTI report with a February 2016 date, but the perpetrator of the incident was indicted for these actions in the spring of 2015, so the attack occurred prior to the question's open period (<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/press-releases/former-u.s.-nuclear-regulatory-commission-employee-charged-with-attempted-spear-phishing-cyber-attack-on-department-of-energy-computers" target="_blank">FBI</a>).
Given the clarification issued in May and the lack of subsequent evidence, there is insufficient evidence to close this question as "yes" based on the incident at the German power plant. The attack on the Japanese power plant began in 2015, prior to the question's open period, and so does not qualify, as did the Department of Energy incident.
Threats emanating from the cyber realm have been increasing in frequency and severity. In just the last month, we saw Russia sanctioned for using cyber to disrupt elections, Kiev's power grid turned off after a cyber attack, and a huge merger put in jeopardy after Yahoo revealed that millions of its accounts had been hacked. The unique nature of the cyber domain creates challenges for adjudicating forecasting questions using open source material and requires that these questions be less precise than others you'll find <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">on the site</a> but given the growing importance of this threat, it is worth working through this ambiguity so that the Good Judgment forecasting community can engage on these issues and the wisdom of the crowd can be leveraged. We will be launching an open question next week to solicit your ideas on what questions we should be asking about this important topic and also how we should be asking those questions. We hope you will share your thoughts and continue to engage on the important issues of the day here at Good Judgment Open.
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Recent reports by Chatham House and the Nuclear Threat Initiative suggest that many nuclear facilities are vulnerable to cyber attacks (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/world/nuclear-threat-initiative-cyberattack-study.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34423419" target = "blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b5f0df54-6aa1-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673.html#axzz3tChmcpN1" target = "_blank">Financial Times</a>). | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-12-31 | Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
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