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2023-01-01 | 2022-06-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.16], ["2022-06-27", 0.397], ["2022-06-27", 0.326], ["2022-06-28", 0.399], ["2022-07-05", 0.399], ["2022-07-06", 0.4], ["2022-07-07", 0.399], ["2022-07-08", 0.399], ["2022-07-09", 0.298], ["2022-07-10", 0.298], ["2022-07-12", 0.288], ["2022-07-13", 0.289], ["2022-07-15", 0.284], ["2022-07-16", 0.284], ["2022-07-20", 0.28], ["2022-07-27", 0.28], ["2022-08-05", 0.28], ["2022-08-18", 0.28], ["2022-08-23", 0.277], ["2022-08-24", 0.283], ["2022-08-31", 0.29], ["2022-09-19", 0.292], ["2022-10-04", 0.294], ["2022-10-05", 0.269], ["2022-10-05", 0.264], ["2022-10-16", 0.264], ["2022-10-16", 0.263], ["2022-10-22", 0.263], ["2022-10-23", 0.259], ["2022-10-25", 0.259], ["2022-10-27", 0.259], ["2022-10-28", 0.366], ["2022-10-29", 0.476], ["2022-10-29", 0.492], ["2022-10-30", 0.517], ["2022-10-30", 0.526], ["2022-10-31", 0.527], ["2022-10-31", 0.53], ["2022-11-01", 0.53], ["2022-11-02", 0.541], ["2022-11-02", 0.541], ["2022-11-03", 0.557], ["2022-11-04", 0.543], ["2022-11-05", 0.54], ["2022-11-05", 0.541], ["2022-11-08", 0.543], ["2022-11-09", 0.536], ["2022-11-12", 0.536], ["2022-11-13", 0.536], ["2022-11-16", 0.531], ["2022-11-17", 0.527], ["2022-11-18", 0.527], ["2022-11-19", 0.511], ["2022-11-20", 0.525], ["2022-11-21", 0.527], ["2022-11-22", 0.532], ["2022-11-22", 0.544], ["2022-11-23", 0.544], ["2022-11-23", 0.544], ["2022-11-24", 0.559], ["2022-11-24", 0.563], ["2022-11-25", 0.599], ["2022-11-25", 0.599], ["2022-11-26", 0.602], ["2022-11-27", 0.61], ["2022-11-28", 0.612], ["2022-11-29", 0.61], ["2022-11-29", 0.611], ["2022-11-30", 0.611], ["2022-12-01", 0.609], ["2022-12-02", 0.617], ["2022-12-02", 0.62], ["2022-12-03", 0.612], ["2022-12-05", 0.611], ["2022-12-07", 0.612], ["2022-12-07", 0.606], ["2022-12-09", 0.6], ["2022-12-10", 0.598], ["2022-12-14", 0.598], ["2022-12-14", 0.595], ["2022-12-15", 0.595], ["2022-12-16", 0.592], ["2022-12-17", 0.581], ["2022-12-19", 0.581], ["2022-12-19", 0.505], ["2022-12-20", 0.477], ["2022-12-21", 0.478], ["2022-12-21", 0.468], ["2022-12-22", 0.454], ["2022-12-23", 0.448], ["2022-12-23", 0.448], ["2022-12-24", 0.435], ["2022-12-25", 0.42], ["2022-12-25", 0.42], ["2022-12-26", 0.402], ["2022-12-27", 0.394], ["2022-12-28", 0.394], ["2022-12-29", 0.373], ["2022-12-30", 0.358], ["2022-12-30", 0.223], ["2022-12-31", 0.169]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11389/ | Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
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With Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter and explicitly talking about a return to its previously more free speech approach, there is a question about whether some prominent individuals who were banned will be unbanned. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed to have created a new account with the permission of Twitter before January 1, 2023. This resolves as No for any individual who is still banned on January 1, 2023 and was not unbanned during the relevant time period.
If an individual satisfies the resolution criteria but is later banned again this still resolves as Yes for that individual. Where an individual creates a new account but it is unclear if Twitter has allowed them to do so admins may use their discretion to determine appropriate resolution or resolve the question ambiguously for that individual | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter unban Jared Taylor before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-21 | 2022-06-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.375], ["2022-06-26", 0.413], ["2022-06-27", 0.422], ["2022-06-27", 0.422], ["2022-06-27", 0.443], ["2022-06-27", 0.389], ["2022-06-27", 0.428], ["2022-06-28", 0.439], ["2022-06-28", 0.499], ["2022-06-28", 0.501], ["2022-06-29", 0.501], ["2022-06-29", 0.512], ["2022-07-05", 0.512], ["2022-07-06", 0.513], ["2022-07-08", 0.495], ["2022-07-09", 0.441], ["2022-07-09", 0.421], ["2022-07-10", 0.414], ["2022-07-12", 0.414], ["2022-07-13", 0.401], ["2022-07-15", 0.401], ["2022-07-16", 0.397], ["2022-07-20", 0.397], ["2022-07-27", 0.397], ["2022-08-02", 0.396], ["2022-08-05", 0.396], ["2022-08-18", 0.396], ["2022-08-22", 0.396], ["2022-08-23", 0.395], ["2022-08-24", 0.392], ["2022-08-24", 0.381], ["2022-08-27", 0.381], ["2022-08-31", 0.379], ["2022-09-03", 0.379], ["2022-09-04", 0.377], ["2022-09-13", 0.377], ["2022-09-15", 0.376], ["2022-10-04", 0.377], ["2022-10-04", 0.382], ["2022-10-04", 0.387], ["2022-10-05", 0.375], ["2022-10-05", 0.378], ["2022-10-05", 0.377], ["2022-10-05", 0.377], ["2022-10-07", 0.379], ["2022-10-07", 0.391], ["2022-10-16", 0.392], ["2022-10-16", 0.393], ["2022-10-22", 0.393], ["2022-10-25", 0.392], ["2022-10-25", 0.392], ["2022-10-27", 0.392], ["2022-10-28", 0.414], ["2022-10-28", 0.449], ["2022-10-28", 0.449], ["2022-10-28", 0.462], ["2022-10-28", 0.5], ["2022-10-29", 0.515], ["2022-10-29", 0.516], ["2022-10-29", 0.535], ["2022-10-29", 0.538], ["2022-10-29", 0.547], ["2022-10-30", 0.554], ["2022-10-30", 0.554], ["2022-10-30", 0.557], ["2022-10-30", 0.557], ["2022-10-31", 0.557], ["2022-10-31", 0.573], ["2022-10-31", 0.573], ["2022-10-31", 0.576], ["2022-10-31", 0.581], ["2022-10-31", 0.585], ["2022-11-01", 0.585], ["2022-11-01", 0.585], ["2022-11-02", 0.591], ["2022-11-02", 0.59], ["2022-11-02", 0.591], ["2022-11-03", 0.598], ["2022-11-03", 0.598], ["2022-11-03", 0.598], ["2022-11-05", 0.596], ["2022-11-05", 0.597], ["2022-11-08", 0.598], ["2022-11-08", 0.598], ["2022-11-09", 0.598], ["2022-11-11", 0.595], ["2022-11-11", 0.595], ["2022-11-12", 0.595], ["2022-11-16", 0.595], ["2022-11-16", 0.594], ["2022-11-16", 0.592], ["2022-11-17", 0.59], ["2022-11-18", 0.589], ["2022-11-18", 0.589], ["2022-11-18", 0.586], ["2022-11-19", 0.586], ["2022-11-19", 0.596], ["2022-11-20", 0.601], ["2022-11-20", 0.614], ["2022-11-20", 0.615], ["2022-11-20", 0.618]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11390/ | Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
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With Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter and explicitly talking about a return to its previously more free speech approach, there is a question about whether some prominent individuals who were banned will be unbanned. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed to have created a new account with the permission of Twitter before January 1, 2023. This resolves as No for any individual who is still banned on January 1, 2023 and was not unbanned during the relevant time period.
If an individual satisfies the resolution criteria but is later banned again this still resolves as Yes for that individual. Where an individual creates a new account but it is unclear if Twitter has allowed them to do so admins may use their discretion to determine appropriate resolution or resolve the question ambiguously for that individual | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter unban Marjorie Taylor Greene before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
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With Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter and explicitly talking about a return to its previously more free speech approach, there is a question about whether some prominent individuals who were banned will be unbanned. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed to have created a new account with the permission of Twitter before January 1, 2023. This resolves as No for any individual who is still banned on January 1, 2023 and was not unbanned during the relevant time period.
If an individual satisfies the resolution criteria but is later banned again this still resolves as Yes for that individual. Where an individual creates a new account but it is unclear if Twitter has allowed them to do so admins may use their discretion to determine appropriate resolution or resolve the question ambiguously for that individual | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter unban Tila Tequila before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-06-19 | ["https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/pennsylvania-senate-midterm-2022-john-fetterman-wins-election-rcna54935", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://twitter.com/EverettStern1/status/1588243991119925254?t=k2dl1YyY7U76Z-U_S6Z7_A&s=19", "https://fee.org/articles/why-betting-markets-are-better-at-predicting-the-future-than-pundits-and-polls/", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate/pennsylvania", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016", "https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate/S2022PA03", "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-pennsylvania", "https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_110222/", "https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_100522/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_partisanship", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/pennsylvania-supreme-court-orders-election-officials-to-disallow-ballots-with-missing-or-incorrect-dates-11667347610?mod=e2tw", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate/pennsylvania", "https://www.racetothewh.com/pennsylvania", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016", "https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate/S2022PA03", "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate/pennsylvania", "https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1586860162727411712", "https://split-ticket.org/", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1586053239618686977", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/", "https://my.wick.io/analysis/shared/item/219F57B7-ACAD-426E-BC69-57ECD0E8A2F6/view", "https://youtu.be/H2VXq9oSSxs?t=1452", "https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1585066967869796352", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovHLD5NSbBk&ab_channel=WPXI-TVNewsPittsburgh", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022", "https://www.electionbettingodds.com/", "https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1583631870755237888", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://whyy.org/articles/what-pa-pollsters-got-wrong-in-2016-and-why-2020-might-be-different/", "https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-polls-wrong-trump-biden-20201111.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11422/oz-to-win-2022-pa-senate-race/#comment-102144", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11422/oz-to-win-2022-pa-senate-race/#comment-102932", "https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-donald-trump-presidential-herschel-walker-45ce6fb7304a973192d108efb7308720?taid=6340cac162e530000139568f&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter", "https://aapor.org/AAPOR_Main/media/MainSiteFiles/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL_embargo.pdf", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577420553614680065", "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1570062532039032832", "https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_091422/", "https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1569755209278300160", "https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1569378179462189060", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-hopeful-fetterman-aims-quell-health-fears-pennsylvania-rally-2022-09-11/?taid=631e374651baff0001727898&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11206/blake-masters-to-win-22-az-sen-election/#comment-100157", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/", "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "https://www.racetothewh.com/pennsylvania", "https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate/S2022PA03", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1000-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-florida-in-the-2018-election", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/07/fetterman-to-politico-i-will-debate-oz-00055301", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-mount-rescue-effort-in-pennsylvania-for-mastriano-oz-campaigns-11662131864?mod=e2tw", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1564758310435315714)", "https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1562181700305788928", "https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1562796194815934465", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022", "https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1559696830857986049", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-win-a-senate-race-when-youve-never-won-an-election-before/", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1554176125152149506"] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.265], ["2022-06-28", 0.371], ["2022-06-29", 0.394], ["2022-06-30", 0.399], ["2022-07-01", 0.409], ["2022-07-02", 0.413], ["2022-07-03", 0.413], ["2022-07-05", 0.427], ["2022-07-06", 0.439], ["2022-07-07", 0.437], 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["2022-11-03", 0.415], ["2022-11-05", 0.423], ["2022-11-07", 0.437], ["2022-11-08", 0.446]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11422/ | Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania.
The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman securing the Democratic nomination and Oz ultimately securing the Republican nomination.
While Fetterman's nomination was announced soon after the election, in the Republican primary, results were still being tabulated weeks later. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick were separated by a difference of 0.1%, or 972 votes. Pennsylvania election law requires an automatic recount if the difference between the top two candidates for a state-wide office is 0.5% of the vote or less. Litigation followed.
On June 3, McCormick conceded the race to Oz, making Oz the first Muslim to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if Mehmet Oz is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania. The question will resolve as No if this does not occur for any reason | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-19 | ["https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1598058647598166016", "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/national-poll-bidens-approval-remains-underwater-as-majority-of-gop-voters-support-trump-as-republican-nominee-for-2024/", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1590460056935739392)", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1590460231490097152)", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1590460405075554304)", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1589816828809080834", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/05/world/politics-diplomacy-world/donald-trump-november-14-presidential-run-announcement/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1667617103", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/01/biden-plans-2024-reelection-bid/", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1585469585960189952", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1585470049187467264", "https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/sp4h6s0adp/econTabReport.pdf", "https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/19/approval-bidens-job-performance-falls-yougov-poll?utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SM-2022-10-US-B2C-Politics", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/biden-says-first-lady-doesn-t-want-him-to-walk-away-from-job?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-tells-al-sharpton-will-run-president-2024-rcna50556", "https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1226a1MidtermPolitics.pdf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-18/biden-says-he-ll-wait-until-after-midterms-to-decide-2024-run?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/biden-primes-2024-run-eager-to-stop-trump-again-despite-doubts?sref=4ZGeBqkb&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social", "https://youtu.be/CJeLoMCF6Jo?t=13", "https://www.axios.com/2022/08/05/democrats-unwilling-to-back-biden?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=social", "https://nypost.com/2020/10/16/texts-show-raw-intimate-exchange-between-joe-and-hunter-biden/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/06/opinion/biden-re-election-2024.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-done-some-democrats-say-biden-should-not-seek-second-term-2022-08-04/?taid=62ebcc38dd0cfc000117d4d7&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1554621438577049602", "https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1554576907500388353", "https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1554170094623723521):", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1552632711315132418", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/cnn-poll-biden-2024/index.html", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-very-unpopular-it-may-not-tell-us-much-about-the-midterms/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/national/", "https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3852", "https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3852", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1549937342923816962", "https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1547343612761018368", "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3556609-biden-fires-back-at-2024-doubts-democrats-want-me-to-run/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/biden-approval-polling-2024.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/"] | binary | [["2022-07-11", 0.235], ["2022-07-13", 0.26], ["2022-07-14", 0.238], ["2022-07-16", 0.219], ["2022-07-18", 0.22], ["2022-07-20", 0.22], ["2022-07-21", 0.221], ["2022-07-23", 0.236], ["2022-07-24", 0.236], ["2022-07-26", 0.239], ["2022-07-28", 0.252], ["2022-07-29", 0.264], ["2022-07-31", 0.265], ["2022-08-01", 0.267], ["2022-08-03", 0.267], ["2022-08-04", 0.267], ["2022-08-05", 0.266], ["2022-08-06", 0.267], ["2022-08-08", 0.273], ["2022-08-09", 0.271], ["2022-08-11", 0.257], ["2022-08-12", 0.252], ["2022-08-14", 0.252], ["2022-08-16", 0.252], ["2022-08-17", 0.251], ["2022-08-18", 0.25], ["2022-08-20", 0.248], ["2022-08-23", 0.248], ["2022-08-26", 0.248], ["2022-08-26", 0.245], ["2022-08-31", 0.245], ["2022-09-02", 0.245], ["2022-09-05", 0.245], ["2022-09-06", 0.243], ["2022-09-09", 0.242], ["2022-09-12", 0.24], ["2022-09-15", 0.239], ["2022-09-16", 0.24], ["2022-09-18", 0.24], ["2022-09-20", 0.241], ["2022-09-21", 0.24], ["2022-09-22", 0.242], ["2022-09-24", 0.238], ["2022-09-26", 0.238], ["2022-09-27", 0.235], ["2022-10-03", 0.235], ["2022-10-05", 0.215], ["2022-10-07", 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["2022-12-15", 0.154], ["2022-12-16", 0.153], ["2022-12-18", 0.152], ["2022-12-20", 0.152], ["2022-12-22", 0.15], ["2022-12-24", 0.148], ["2022-12-26", 0.147], ["2022-12-27", 0.145], ["2022-12-30", 0.143], ["2022-12-31", 0.109]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11426/ | Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., born November 20, 1942, is an American politician who is the 46th and current president of the United States. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as the 47th vice president from 2009 to 2017 under Barack Obama and represented Delaware in the United States Senate from 1973 to 2009. As of July 8 2022, Biden has an approval rating of 38.6% according to FiveThirtyEight.
On numerous occasions, President Biden has stated that he intends to run for re-election in 2024. However, given Biden's low approval rating, advanced age (he is the oldest US president in history), and indications that his Democratic Party will perform poorly in the November midterm elections, it has been speculated that Biden may opt not to seek re-election in the 2024 presidential contest, and it has been suggested that he should not.
There is also a widespread expectation on the part of the American public that Biden will not run again: according to a Wall Street Journal poll in March 2022, 52% of registered voters don't think that President Joe Biden will run for a second term in 2024. Only 29% expect him to run again. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if, prior to January 1, 2023, Joe Biden makes any public statement to the effect that he has decided not to run for president in the 2024 presidential election. If Biden has made no such statement before January 1, 2023, the question will resolve as No, if it has not already resolved as Ambiguous.
This question refers to a decision not to run. If Biden is precluded from running because he dies, is rendered incapacitated, or is legally prevented from running in 2024, this question will resolve as Ambiguous | true | 2023-01-01 | Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-19 | 2022-06-19 | ["https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/116564/web.307039/#/summary", "https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/116564/web.307039/#/summary", "https://sos.ga.gov/news/post-election-audit-senate-runoff-confirms-system-accuracy", "https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/FINAL-audit-report-December-6-2022-US-Senate-Run-Off-2022-12-15T21_34%2B00_00.zip", "https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1600334784412102656", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_senators_in_the_117th_Congress?wprov=sfla1", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13827/will-the-people-choose-raphael-warnock/", "https://sos.ga.gov/data-hub-2022-general-election", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.aapor.org/AAPOR_Main/media/MainSiteFiles/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi-vfO-7v36AhUGLUQIHaFDCHQQFnoECA0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw1TKVIvBmHJ8z5QWb1_V5Oa", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107", "https://sos.ga.gov/news/georgia-voters-shatter-second-presidential-turnout-record-saturday", "https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1582835376078479360", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/georgia/", "https://civiqs.com/reports/2022/10/12/election-2022-new-civiqs-polls-in-georgia-and-texas", "https://www.dailywire.com/news/trafalgar-founder-on-poll-indicating-pa-senate-race-tightening-people-starting-to-pay-attention", "https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3858", "https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-donald-trump-presidential-herschel-walker-45ce6fb7304a973192d108efb7308720?taid=6340cac162e530000139568f&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/herschel-walkers-wife-reaches-out-to-his-abortion-accuser-georgia-senate?ref=wrap", "https://www.ajc.com/politics/warnocks-ex-wife-takes-legal-action-over-child-custody/UNI2QB7HQ5CVJMIIYSBGWD37FQ/", "https://freebeacon.com/democrats/ex-wife-accuses-warnock-of-neglecting-children-failing-to-pay-childcare-expenses/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/walker-denies-new-report-on-woman-who-says-he-paid-for-abortion?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business", "https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1577827464889393152", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/she-had-an-abortion-with-herschel-walker-she-also-had-a-child-with-him?ref=wrap", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/", "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/109111131319108251", "https://twitter.com/jgalttweets/status/1576255292152885249", "https://twitter.com/jgalttweets/status/1416063582299635712).", "https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1567610538149961733", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate", "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/09/GA-topline_Sen-Gov-General_conducted-September-22-26_released-Sep-28-2022.pdf", "https://aapor.org/AAPOR_Main/media/MainSiteFiles/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL_embargo.pdf", "https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1571052400022286339?t=wZz2Q0BCi3qZ3vJvmva3aA&s=19", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-win-a-senate-race-when-youve-never-won-an-election-before/"] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.56], ["2022-06-28", 0.602], ["2022-06-29", 0.599], ["2022-06-30", 0.619], ["2022-07-01", 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0.601], ["2022-10-30", 0.6], ["2022-11-01", 0.596], ["2022-11-02", 0.592], ["2022-11-03", 0.59], ["2022-11-04", 0.59], ["2022-11-05", 0.587], ["2022-11-06", 0.587], ["2022-11-07", 0.572], ["2022-11-07", 0.564]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11427/ | Raphael Gamaliel Warnock, born July 23, 1969, is an American pastor and politician serving as senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta since 2005 and the junior United States senator from Georgia since 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, he assumed office on January 20, 2021.
Warnock is seeking re-election in November 2022, and easily won re-nomination with only token opposition, winning 96% of the primary vote. He will face Republican nominee Herschel Walker in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if Raphael Warnock is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia. This question will resolve as No if this does not occur for any reason | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.12], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.093], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.093], ["2022-07-22", 0.093], ["2022-07-22", 0.032], ["2022-07-23", 0.116], ["2022-07-23", 0.116], ["2022-07-24", 0.091], ["2022-07-24", 0.091], ["2022-07-24", 0.094], ["2022-07-24", 0.101], ["2022-07-25", 0.101], ["2022-08-01", 0.107], ["2022-08-04", 0.107], ["2022-08-04", 0.1], ["2022-08-12", 0.094], ["2022-08-13", 0.094], ["2022-08-17", 0.092], ["2022-08-23", 0.14], ["2022-09-19", 0.142], ["2022-09-20", 0.142], ["2022-09-21", 0.143], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.138], ["2022-10-03", 0.135], ["2022-10-05", 0.134], ["2022-10-13", 0.128], ["2022-10-14", 0.127], ["2022-10-14", 0.127], ["2022-10-16", 0.126], ["2022-10-17", 0.124], ["2022-10-22", 0.128], ["2022-10-24", 0.128], ["2022-10-27", 0.128], ["2022-10-28", 0.127], ["2022-11-05", 0.122], ["2022-11-05", 0.121], ["2022-11-23", 0.119], ["2022-11-24", 0.117], ["2022-11-24", 0.116], ["2022-11-24", 0.116], ["2022-11-25", 0.116], ["2022-11-25", 0.127], ["2022-11-26", 0.127], ["2022-12-02", 0.119], ["2022-12-02", 0.12], ["2022-12-06", 0.121], ["2022-12-07", 0.12], ["2022-12-14", 0.12], ["2022-12-23", 0.119], ["2022-12-26", 0.118], ["2022-12-30", 0.118], ["2022-12-30", 0.118], ["2022-12-30", 0.118], ["2022-12-30", 0.117], ["2022-12-31", 0.114]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11445/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Côte d'Ivoire in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.11], ["2022-07-21", 0.11], ["2022-07-22", 0.033], ["2022-07-23", 0.033], ["2022-07-23", 0.116], ["2022-07-24", 0.116], ["2022-07-24", 0.111], ["2022-07-24", 0.111], ["2022-08-01", 0.103], ["2022-08-01", 0.096], ["2022-08-04", 0.087], ["2022-08-04", 0.081], ["2022-08-12", 0.071], ["2022-08-13", 0.068], ["2022-10-01", 0.068], ["2022-10-03", 0.066], ["2022-10-05", 0.064], ["2022-10-16", 0.064], ["2022-10-17", 0.059], ["2022-10-20", 0.059], ["2022-11-05", 0.056], ["2022-11-23", 0.056], ["2022-11-24", 0.055], ["2022-11-25", 0.069], ["2022-11-26", 0.066], ["2022-12-02", 0.063], ["2022-12-06", 0.062], ["2022-12-14", 0.062], ["2022-12-23", 0.062], ["2022-12-25", 0.062], ["2022-12-25", 0.062], ["2022-12-25", 0.062], ["2022-12-25", 0.062], ["2022-12-25", 0.061], ["2022-12-25", 0.062], ["2022-12-30", 0.062], ["2022-12-31", 0.06]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11451/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Guinea in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.1], ["2022-07-21", 0.065], ["2022-07-21", 0.053], ["2022-07-22", 0.053], ["2022-07-23", 0.03], ["2022-07-23", 0.138], ["2022-07-24", 0.116], ["2022-07-24", 0.11], ["2022-07-24", 0.098], ["2022-07-24", 0.098], ["2022-08-01", 0.082], ["2022-08-04", 0.075], ["2022-08-04", 0.075], ["2022-08-12", 0.064], ["2022-08-13", 0.062], ["2022-10-01", 0.062], ["2022-10-03", 0.059], ["2022-10-05", 0.058], ["2022-10-16", 0.059], ["2022-10-17", 0.054], ["2022-11-05", 0.054], ["2022-11-05", 0.052], ["2022-11-23", 0.051], ["2022-11-23", 0.052], ["2022-11-24", 0.052], ["2022-11-25", 0.063], ["2022-11-26", 0.06], ["2022-12-02", 0.059], ["2022-12-06", 0.059], ["2022-12-14", 0.059], ["2022-12-23", 0.058], ["2022-12-31", 0.057]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11454/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Sierra Leone in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.115], ["2022-07-21", 0.087], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.087], ["2022-07-21", 0.087], ["2022-07-21", 0.087], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-22", 0.087], ["2022-07-22", 0.025], ["2022-07-23", 0.11], ["2022-07-23", 0.11], ["2022-07-24", 0.086], ["2022-07-24", 0.089], ["2022-07-24", 0.151], ["2022-07-24", 0.16], ["2022-07-25", 0.16], ["2022-08-01", 0.163], ["2022-08-04", 0.152], ["2022-08-04", 0.148], ["2022-08-12", 0.148], ["2022-08-13", 0.145], ["2022-09-11", 0.145], ["2022-10-01", 0.131], ["2022-10-03", 0.129], ["2022-10-05", 0.147], ["2022-10-05", 0.136], ["2022-10-16", 0.137], ["2022-10-17", 0.138], ["2022-10-17", 0.138], ["2022-10-27", 0.134], ["2022-11-05", 0.124], ["2022-11-05", 0.124], ["2022-11-06", 0.122], ["2022-11-23", 0.122], ["2022-11-24", 0.114], ["2022-11-24", 0.115], ["2022-11-25", 0.123], ["2022-11-26", 0.123], ["2022-12-02", 0.116], ["2022-12-02", 0.116], ["2022-12-06", 0.125], ["2022-12-10", 0.125], ["2022-12-14", 0.125], ["2022-12-15", 0.125], ["2022-12-23", 0.128], ["2022-12-23", 0.127], ["2022-12-23", 0.127], ["2022-12-23", 0.127], ["2022-12-25", 0.127], ["2022-12-25", 0.127], ["2022-12-25", 0.127], ["2022-12-25", 0.127], ["2022-12-25", 0.127], ["2022-12-31", 0.127]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11463/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Togo in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.155], ["2022-07-21", 0.155], ["2022-07-22", 0.083], ["2022-07-23", 0.18], ["2022-07-23", 0.18], ["2022-07-24", 0.155], ["2022-07-24", 0.141], ["2022-07-24", 0.131], ["2022-07-25", 0.131], ["2022-07-26", 0.13], ["2022-07-26", 0.114], ["2022-07-27", 0.114], ["2022-08-01", 0.104], ["2022-08-03", 0.104], ["2022-08-04", 0.091], ["2022-08-04", 0.091], ["2022-08-12", 0.089], ["2022-08-13", 0.082], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.079], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.079], ["2022-10-01", 0.079], ["2022-10-01", 0.079], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.079], ["2022-10-01", 0.078], ["2022-10-01", 0.079], ["2022-10-16", 0.08], ["2022-10-17", 0.078], ["2022-10-17", 0.073], ["2022-10-17", 0.074], ["2022-10-20", 0.073], ["2022-11-05", 0.073], ["2022-11-14", 0.069], ["2022-11-23", 0.071], ["2022-11-24", 0.068], ["2022-11-25", 0.068], ["2022-11-25", 0.081], ["2022-11-26", 0.077], ["2022-12-02", 0.074], ["2022-12-06", 0.073], ["2022-12-14", 0.073], ["2022-12-23", 0.071], ["2022-12-25", 0.07], ["2022-12-25", 0.07], ["2022-12-25", 0.07], ["2022-12-25", 0.071], ["2022-12-26", 0.07], ["2022-12-30", 0.07]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11464/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Morocco in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.155], ["2022-07-21", 0.155], ["2022-07-22", 0.097], ["2022-07-23", 0.097], ["2022-07-23", 0.19], ["2022-07-24", 0.18], ["2022-07-24", 0.178], ["2022-07-24", 0.164], ["2022-07-24", 0.232], ["2022-07-24", 0.232], ["2022-08-01", 0.214], ["2022-08-04", 0.193], ["2022-08-04", 0.193], ["2022-08-12", 0.183], ["2022-08-13", 0.182], ["2022-10-01", 0.179], ["2022-10-03", 0.179], ["2022-10-03", 0.21], ["2022-10-04", 0.212], ["2022-10-05", 0.238], ["2022-10-05", 0.24], ["2022-10-07", 0.241], ["2022-10-11", 0.243], ["2022-10-11", 0.249], ["2022-10-11", 0.251], ["2022-10-11", 0.253], ["2022-10-12", 0.253], ["2022-10-16", 0.255], ["2022-10-20", 0.255], ["2022-10-20", 0.267], ["2022-10-20", 0.267], ["2022-11-05", 0.265], ["2022-11-05", 0.259], ["2022-11-23", 0.266], ["2022-11-24", 0.266], ["2022-11-25", 0.271], ["2022-11-26", 0.258], ["2022-11-27", 0.256], ["2022-11-28", 0.256], ["2022-12-02", 0.248], ["2022-12-04", 0.248], ["2022-12-06", 0.249], ["2022-12-08", 0.254], ["2022-12-09", 0.25], ["2022-12-14", 0.257], ["2022-12-15", 0.257], ["2022-12-15", 0.259], ["2022-12-17", 0.249], ["2022-12-17", 0.249], ["2022-12-22", 0.247], ["2022-12-23", 0.245], ["2022-12-23", 0.245], ["2022-12-23", 0.238], ["2022-12-23", 0.238], ["2022-12-25", 0.237], ["2022-12-25", 0.237], ["2022-12-25", 0.241], ["2022-12-26", 0.245], ["2022-12-31", 0.245]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11467/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Benin in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.2], ["2022-07-20", 0.1], ["2022-07-21", 0.1], ["2022-07-21", 0.05], ["2022-07-22", 0.05], ["2022-07-23", 0.135], ["2022-07-23", 0.112], ["2022-07-24", 0.098], ["2022-07-24", 0.098], ["2022-07-24", 0.092], ["2022-07-24", 0.092], ["2022-07-25", 0.082], ["2022-08-01", 0.082], ["2022-08-04", 0.07], ["2022-08-04", 0.066], ["2022-08-12", 0.058], ["2022-08-13", 0.054], ["2022-10-01", 0.051], ["2022-10-01", 0.052], ["2022-10-01", 0.051], ["2022-10-01", 0.052], ["2022-10-01", 0.051], ["2022-10-01", 0.052], ["2022-10-01", 0.052], ["2022-10-01", 0.052], ["2022-10-01", 0.052], ["2022-10-01", 0.051], ["2022-10-03", 0.051], ["2022-10-05", 0.051], ["2022-10-05", 0.05], ["2022-10-16", 0.051], ["2022-10-16", 0.05], ["2022-10-17", 0.05], ["2022-11-05", 0.045], ["2022-11-23", 0.046], ["2022-11-25", 0.059], ["2022-11-26", 0.059], ["2022-12-02", 0.054], ["2022-12-06", 0.053], ["2022-12-14", 0.053], ["2022-12-23", 0.053], ["2022-12-26", 0.053], ["2022-12-30", 0.056], ["2022-12-31", 0.055]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11468/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Mauritania in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.11], ["2022-07-21", 0.11], ["2022-07-22", 0.083], ["2022-07-23", 0.135], ["2022-07-23", 0.135], ["2022-07-24", 0.112], ["2022-07-24", 0.11], ["2022-07-24", 0.11], ["2022-08-01", 0.09], ["2022-08-01", 0.082], ["2022-08-04", 0.075], ["2022-08-04", 0.075], ["2022-08-05", 0.071], ["2022-08-12", 0.062], ["2022-08-13", 0.062], ["2022-10-01", 0.059], ["2022-10-02", 0.057], ["2022-10-03", 0.058], ["2022-10-05", 0.057], ["2022-10-16", 0.056], ["2022-10-17", 0.053], ["2022-11-05", 0.051], ["2022-11-05", 0.051], ["2022-11-23", 0.051], ["2022-11-24", 0.052], ["2022-11-25", 0.063], ["2022-11-26", 0.063], ["2022-12-02", 0.058], ["2022-12-02", 0.058], ["2022-12-06", 0.057], ["2022-12-14", 0.057], ["2022-12-15", 0.057], ["2022-12-23", 0.057], ["2022-12-26", 0.057], ["2022-12-31", 0.057]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11469/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Liberia in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.087], ["2022-07-22", 0.087], ["2022-07-23", 0.03], ["2022-07-23", 0.138], ["2022-07-24", 0.1], ["2022-07-24", 0.101], ["2022-07-24", 0.09], ["2022-08-01", 0.083], ["2022-08-01", 0.076], ["2022-08-04", 0.076], ["2022-08-04", 0.07], ["2022-08-05", 0.066], ["2022-08-12", 0.058], ["2022-08-13", 0.058], ["2022-10-01", 0.054], ["2022-10-02", 0.054], ["2022-10-03", 0.054], ["2022-10-05", 0.052], ["2022-10-16", 0.052], ["2022-10-16", 0.053], ["2022-10-17", 0.048], ["2022-11-05", 0.046], ["2022-11-23", 0.046], ["2022-11-24", 0.045], ["2022-11-25", 0.057], ["2022-11-26", 0.055], ["2022-12-02", 0.055], ["2022-12-06", 0.053], ["2022-12-07", 0.051], ["2022-12-08", 0.05], ["2022-12-14", 0.05], ["2022-12-25", 0.05], ["2022-12-25", 0.051], ["2022-12-31", 0.05]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11474/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Senegal in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.11], ["2022-07-21", 0.083], ["2022-07-22", 0.083], ["2022-07-23", 0.027], ["2022-07-23", 0.112], ["2022-07-24", 0.098], ["2022-07-24", 0.1], ["2022-07-24", 0.1], ["2022-07-27", 0.168], ["2022-07-28", 0.152], ["2022-08-01", 0.141], ["2022-08-04", 0.13], ["2022-08-04", 0.122], ["2022-08-05", 0.122], ["2022-08-12", 0.12], ["2022-08-13", 0.113], ["2022-08-18", 0.113], ["2022-08-31", 0.113], ["2022-09-02", 0.109], ["2022-10-01", 0.108], ["2022-10-02", 0.109], ["2022-10-02", 0.109], ["2022-10-03", 0.108], ["2022-10-04", 0.109], ["2022-10-16", 0.11], ["2022-10-16", 0.109], ["2022-10-16", 0.109], ["2022-10-17", 0.109], ["2022-10-20", 0.104], ["2022-10-22", 0.105], ["2022-10-27", 0.104], ["2022-10-28", 0.104], ["2022-11-01", 0.103], ["2022-11-05", 0.103], ["2022-11-23", 0.101], ["2022-11-25", 0.101], ["2022-11-25", 0.11], ["2022-11-26", 0.106], ["2022-12-02", 0.106], ["2022-12-02", 0.102], ["2022-12-06", 0.099], ["2022-12-14", 0.099], ["2022-12-15", 0.094], ["2022-12-15", 0.093], ["2022-12-23", 0.093], ["2022-12-25", 0.093]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11476/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Côte d'Ivoire 38 72,548
Ghana 38 23,428
Guinea 28 60,861
Sierra Leone 2 12,300
Togo 4 10,969
Morocco 47 18,017
Benin 93 2,112
Mauritania 1 47,984
Liberia 7 8,474
Senegal 24 32,595
Guinea-Bissau 0 4,585
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
Côte d'Ivoire 16
Ghana 51
Guinea 10
Sierra Leone 1
Togo 9
Morocco 12
Benin 65
Mauritania 3
Liberia 6
Senegal 18
Guinea-Bissau 12
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situations)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Guinea-Bissau in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-06-22 | ["https://aqua.kingcounty.gov/elections/2022/nov-general/results.pdf", "https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20221108/king/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11493/will-seattle-pass-approval-voting-in-2022/#comment-108576", "https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20221108/default.htm", "https://aqua.kingcounty.gov/elections/2022/nov-general/results.pdf", "https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-seattles-approval-voting-initi#jYHuBVMvPT3dSQ1U7S3a", "https://www.kuow.org/stories/yes-vote-in-favor-of-seattle-election-reform-now-ahead", "https://www.thestranger.com/elections-2022/2022/10/20/78629342/the-strangers-endorsements-for-the-november-8-2022-general-election#Props", "https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/yes-on-seattle-proposition-1b-ranked-choice-voting-encourage-good-people-to-run-cooperative-campaigns/"] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.25], ["2022-06-25", 0.25], ["2022-06-25", 0.413], ["2022-06-26", 0.47], ["2022-06-26", 0.47], ["2022-06-26", 0.472], ["2022-06-27", 0.474], ["2022-06-27", 0.474], ["2022-06-27", 0.488], ["2022-06-28", 0.507], ["2022-06-28", 0.518], ["2022-06-28", 0.526], ["2022-06-30", 0.524], ["2022-07-01", 0.524], ["2022-07-01", 0.569], ["2022-07-04", 0.57], ["2022-07-05", 0.57], ["2022-07-06", 0.57], ["2022-07-07", 0.572], ["2022-07-07", 0.582], ["2022-07-07", 0.582], ["2022-07-10", 0.588], ["2022-07-10", 0.575], ["2022-07-10", 0.569], ["2022-07-10", 0.57], ["2022-07-10", 0.568], ["2022-07-10", 0.575], ["2022-07-10", 0.575], ["2022-07-11", 0.579], ["2022-07-11", 0.58], ["2022-07-11", 0.58], ["2022-07-12", 0.583], ["2022-07-15", 0.584], ["2022-07-16", 0.584], ["2022-07-16", 0.586], ["2022-07-20", 0.586], ["2022-07-23", 0.574], ["2022-07-24", 0.57], ["2022-07-24", 0.57], ["2022-07-27", 0.567], ["2022-08-03", 0.545], ["2022-08-05", 0.545], ["2022-08-11", 0.545], ["2022-08-16", 0.534], ["2022-08-16", 0.535], ["2022-08-16", 0.535], ["2022-08-17", 0.532], ["2022-08-17", 0.53], ["2022-08-18", 0.524], ["2022-08-19", 0.524], ["2022-08-20", 0.52], ["2022-08-31", 0.52], ["2022-09-02", 0.52], ["2022-09-03", 0.526], ["2022-09-04", 0.525], ["2022-09-13", 0.524], ["2022-09-17", 0.52], ["2022-09-22", 0.519], ["2022-09-23", 0.518], ["2022-09-26", 0.519], ["2022-10-04", 0.519], ["2022-10-05", 0.52], ["2022-10-13", 0.527], ["2022-10-14", 0.528], ["2022-10-15", 0.529], ["2022-10-15", 0.526], ["2022-10-16", 0.525], ["2022-10-20", 0.526], ["2022-10-20", 0.526], ["2022-10-20", 0.526], ["2022-10-22", 0.528], ["2022-10-23", 0.521], ["2022-10-24", 0.52], ["2022-10-24", 0.52], ["2022-10-25", 0.52], ["2022-10-25", 0.52], ["2022-10-25", 0.505], ["2022-10-26", 0.505], ["2022-10-26", 0.504], ["2022-10-27", 0.504], ["2022-10-28", 0.504], ["2022-10-29", 0.502], ["2022-10-29", 0.501], ["2022-10-29", 0.501], ["2022-11-01", 0.502], ["2022-11-01", 0.502], ["2022-11-02", 0.5], ["2022-11-04", 0.5], ["2022-11-04", 0.498], ["2022-11-04", 0.496], ["2022-11-04", 0.495], ["2022-11-04", 0.492], ["2022-11-04", 0.492], ["2022-11-04", 0.492], ["2022-11-04", 0.492], ["2022-11-04", 0.492], ["2022-11-04", 0.49], ["2022-11-04", 0.488], ["2022-11-05", 0.489], ["2022-11-05", 0.489], ["2022-11-06", 0.488]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11493/ | In November 2022, Seattle's general election will include a ballot initiative (Initiative 134) to switch several city elected positions to use Approval Voting during their primaries.
Now that Initiative 134 has enough signatures to get on the ballot, it could be passed by the City Council, or it could be passed by getting enough votes in the November election. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve based on the King County elections website, with the Seattle ballot initiatives archives as a backup.
If Initiative 134 gets passed by the city council, this resolves YES.
If some similar/equivalent approval voting legislation passes, but Initiative 134 itself does not, this resolves NO.
If we reach the end of 2022 without a clear outcome, this resolves NO | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-24 | 2022-06-22 | ["https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-authorizes-first-over-counter-home-test-detect-both-influenza-and-covid-19-viruses", "https://www.statnews.com/2023/02/26/fda-flu-covid-home-test-lucira/", "https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-authorizes-first-over-counter-home-test-detect-both-influenza-and-covid-19-viruses", "https://www.fda.gov/media/165688/download", "https://manifold.markets/Pepe/before-2025-will-the-us-fda-authori", "https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/rapid-tests-covid-rsv-flu-are-available-europe-stopping-us-rcna64470"] | binary | [["2022-06-24", 0.36], ["2022-06-24", 0.36], ["2022-06-24", 0.353], ["2022-06-25", 0.353], ["2022-06-25", 0.31], ["2022-06-25", 0.36], ["2022-06-25", 0.317], ["2022-06-26", 0.317], ["2022-06-26", 0.321], ["2022-06-27", 0.321], ["2022-06-27", 0.324], ["2022-06-27", 0.341], ["2022-06-27", 0.369], ["2022-06-27", 0.369], ["2022-06-27", 0.42], ["2022-06-27", 0.42], ["2022-06-28", 0.422], ["2022-06-28", 0.451], ["2022-06-28", 0.451], ["2022-06-28", 0.474], ["2022-06-28", 0.488], ["2022-06-28", 0.488], ["2022-07-01", 0.489], ["2022-07-01", 0.537], ["2022-07-02", 0.539], ["2022-07-03", 0.539], ["2022-07-04", 0.554], ["2022-07-04", 0.554], ["2022-07-04", 0.56], ["2022-07-05", 0.56], ["2022-07-10", 0.547], ["2022-07-10", 0.547], ["2022-07-12", 0.564], ["2022-07-12", 0.564], ["2022-07-13", 0.546], ["2022-07-13", 0.547], ["2022-07-13", 0.547], ["2022-07-13", 0.554], ["2022-07-14", 0.554], ["2022-07-14", 0.557], ["2022-07-14", 0.559], ["2022-07-14", 0.566], ["2022-07-15", 0.571], ["2022-07-20", 0.571], ["2022-07-20", 0.555], ["2022-07-25", 0.555], ["2022-07-27", 0.575], ["2022-08-02", 0.575], ["2022-08-05", 0.587], ["2022-08-05", 0.587], ["2022-08-18", 0.587], ["2022-08-25", 0.599], ["2022-08-31", 0.599], ["2022-09-05", 0.603], ["2022-09-14", 0.61], ["2022-09-19", 0.615], ["2022-09-19", 0.617], ["2022-10-01", 0.608], ["2022-10-01", 0.606], ["2022-10-01", 0.606], ["2022-10-02", 0.606], ["2022-10-03", 0.606], ["2022-10-16", 0.605], ["2022-10-17", 0.604], ["2022-10-25", 0.604], ["2022-10-27", 0.604], ["2022-11-01", 0.604], ["2022-11-05", 0.604], ["2022-11-12", 0.604], ["2022-11-13", 0.604], ["2022-11-18", 0.602], ["2022-11-18", 0.602], ["2022-11-20", 0.603], ["2022-11-24", 0.605], ["2022-11-24", 0.605], ["2022-11-24", 0.603], ["2022-12-13", 0.606], ["2022-12-15", 0.605], ["2022-12-16", 0.6], ["2023-01-02", 0.602], ["2023-01-03", 0.602], ["2023-01-05", 0.601], ["2023-01-05", 0.602], ["2023-01-06", 0.594], ["2023-01-11", 0.593], ["2023-01-13", 0.593], ["2023-01-13", 0.6], ["2023-01-14", 0.601], ["2023-01-14", 0.601], ["2023-01-21", 0.6], ["2023-01-25", 0.602], ["2023-01-25", 0.603], ["2023-01-30", 0.609], ["2023-01-30", 0.606], ["2023-02-01", 0.606], ["2023-02-06", 0.605], ["2023-02-07", 0.604]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11496/ | Traditionally, the US FDA and other major medical/regulatory bodies in the US have taken a conservative approach to authorizing at-home over-the-counter rapid tests — that is, tests that can be acquired without a prescription and which can performed entirely at home in an unsupervised manner and within a short time span (usually, about 10-25 minutes). The Institute for Progress said the following in January 2022 (at the peak of the Omicron wave) about the issue with FDA's conservative approach:
The United States doesn’t have enough rapid tests. The root cause of this shortage is that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) doesn’t have an appropriate framework for thinking about tradeoffs during an emergency ... Rapid tests provide a key example of where the FDA has treated clinical trial data as necessary when other data should be sufficient for authorization during a public health emergency. Despite the broad benefit to the public of having rapid tests widely available, their supposed individual inferiority to PCR has kept almost all of them off the market.
As of June 14, 2022, there are 20 at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for SARS-CoV-2 that have been authorized by FDA. However, to date there are no at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for influenza that have been authorized by FDA. A recent study on such a test found encouraging results: "sensitivity and specificity of the self-test were comparable with those of .... clinical settings ... deployment of home tests may provide a valuable tool to support the management of influenza."
The purpose of this question is to understand the potential for the US FDA to authorize an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza. Such a test may play a key role in helping to reduce transmission of seasonal influenza and, critically, can play an important role from the very start of any potential future flu pandemics. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as Yes if the US FDA authorizes an at-home over-the-counter rapid test against influenza at any point before January 1, 2025. Any kind of authorization, including emergency use authorization, will be sufficient for this question.
Such a test must meet the following requirements for this question:
be able to detect both influenzas A and B
at-home, meaning the entirety of the testing process (collecting of sample, performing the test, reading of result) can be done at home without need for supervision or for anything to be sent to a laboratory
over-the-counter, meaning a prescription is not needed
rapid, meaning it quickly tests for influenza and does not take longer than 30 minutes
No additional requirements (such as accuracy, cost, or supply) are necessary for resolution | true | 2024-12-31 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-06-22 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.2], ["2022-07-13", 0.228], ["2022-07-15", 0.222], ["2022-07-16", 0.25], ["2022-07-16", 0.216], ["2022-07-17", 0.185], ["2022-07-19", 0.185], ["2022-07-20", 0.206], ["2022-07-22", 0.203], ["2022-07-22", 0.189], ["2022-07-23", 0.189], ["2022-07-24", 0.214], ["2022-07-24", 0.213], ["2022-07-25", 0.213], ["2022-07-26", 0.212], ["2022-07-27", 0.213], ["2022-07-31", 0.225], ["2022-07-31", 0.235], ["2022-08-01", 0.241], ["2022-08-03", 0.232], ["2022-08-04", 0.245], ["2022-08-05", 0.251], ["2022-08-10", 0.251], ["2022-08-13", 0.25], ["2022-08-16", 0.246], ["2022-08-17", 0.245], ["2022-08-18", 0.243], ["2022-08-23", 0.245], ["2022-08-23", 0.268], ["2022-08-25", 0.268], ["2022-08-29", 0.269], ["2022-08-31", 0.268], ["2022-09-02", 0.269], ["2022-09-08", 0.269], ["2022-09-09", 0.264], ["2022-09-11", 0.258], ["2022-09-12", 0.249], ["2022-09-13", 0.246], ["2022-09-21", 0.246], ["2022-09-29", 0.247], ["2022-09-29", 0.238], ["2022-10-01", 0.238], ["2022-10-02", 0.237], ["2022-10-04", 0.237], ["2022-10-08", 0.238], ["2022-10-08", 0.238], ["2022-10-09", 0.235], ["2022-10-10", 0.231], ["2022-10-11", 0.229], ["2022-10-12", 0.23], ["2022-10-13", 0.22], ["2022-10-14", 0.22], ["2022-10-16", 0.223], ["2022-10-16", 0.223], ["2022-10-19", 0.223], ["2022-10-20", 0.221], ["2022-10-21", 0.22], ["2022-10-25", 0.22], ["2022-10-26", 0.221], ["2022-10-27", 0.218], ["2022-10-28", 0.211], ["2022-10-29", 0.211], ["2022-10-30", 0.21], ["2022-11-01", 0.207], ["2022-11-01", 0.207], ["2022-11-03", 0.207], ["2022-11-03", 0.207], ["2022-11-09", 0.206], ["2022-11-10", 0.205], ["2022-11-12", 0.205], ["2022-11-15", 0.205], ["2022-11-15", 0.205], ["2022-11-16", 0.205], ["2022-11-17", 0.204], ["2022-11-23", 0.203], ["2022-11-25", 0.203], ["2022-11-25", 0.203], ["2022-11-26", 0.199], ["2022-11-27", 0.199], ["2022-11-30", 0.199], ["2022-12-01", 0.197], ["2022-12-02", 0.197], ["2022-12-02", 0.197], ["2022-12-06", 0.194], ["2022-12-06", 0.19], ["2022-12-07", 0.189], ["2022-12-08", 0.188], ["2022-12-10", 0.188], ["2022-12-12", 0.186], ["2022-12-14", 0.185], ["2022-12-15", 0.183], ["2022-12-16", 0.18], ["2022-12-17", 0.179], ["2022-12-24", 0.176], ["2022-12-24", 0.176], ["2022-12-26", 0.176], ["2022-12-27", 0.165], ["2022-12-28", 0.162], ["2022-12-28", 0.157], ["2022-12-30", 0.152], ["2022-12-30", 0.141]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11507/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the European Union Euro (€) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-08 | 2022-06-24 | ["https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-pennsylvania-campaign-spending-government-and-politics-b20e3e160a07aeb6e7a8f64e0e09ef2e?utm_source=hubpage&utm_medium=RelatedStories&utm_campaign=position_01", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-mount-rescue-effort-in-pennsylvania-for-mastriano-oz-campaigns-11662131864?mod=e2tw", "https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/doug-mastriano-senate-lgbtq-islam-climate-dreamers-1397275/", "https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/mastriano-removes-social-media-profile-pics-after-warning-from-u-s-army/", "https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-george-soros-campaign-governor-20220815.html", "https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/doug-mastriano-senate-lgbtq-islam-climate-dreamers-1397275/"] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.21], ["2022-06-27", 0.37], ["2022-06-28", 0.415], ["2022-06-29", 0.428], ["2022-06-30", 0.425], ["2022-07-01", 0.409], ["2022-07-02", 0.402], ["2022-07-03", 0.392], ["2022-07-05", 0.402], ["2022-07-06", 0.402], ["2022-07-06", 0.402], ["2022-07-10", 0.402], ["2022-07-11", 0.39], ["2022-07-12", 0.39], ["2022-07-17", 0.392], ["2022-07-20", 0.392], ["2022-07-20", 0.391], ["2022-07-22", 0.391], ["2022-07-22", 0.395], ["2022-07-24", 0.395], ["2022-07-27", 0.395], ["2022-07-28", 0.389], ["2022-07-30", 0.389], ["2022-07-31", 0.381], ["2022-08-01", 0.379], ["2022-08-02", 0.379], ["2022-08-02", 0.371], ["2022-08-03", 0.37], ["2022-08-04", 0.359], ["2022-08-05", 0.353], ["2022-08-07", 0.353], ["2022-08-08", 0.353], ["2022-08-09", 0.351], ["2022-08-11", 0.351], ["2022-08-12", 0.344], ["2022-08-13", 0.337], ["2022-08-14", 0.337], ["2022-08-16", 0.337], ["2022-08-17", 0.314], ["2022-08-18", 0.31], ["2022-08-19", 0.296], ["2022-08-21", 0.282], ["2022-08-22", 0.281], ["2022-08-23", 0.275], ["2022-08-24", 0.257], ["2022-08-25", 0.248], ["2022-08-28", 0.246], ["2022-08-31", 0.246], ["2022-09-02", 0.247], ["2022-09-03", 0.242], ["2022-09-04", 0.242], ["2022-09-05", 0.243], ["2022-09-06", 0.238], ["2022-09-07", 0.238], ["2022-09-08", 0.238], ["2022-09-09", 0.23], ["2022-09-17", 0.231], ["2022-09-18", 0.228], ["2022-09-22", 0.226], ["2022-09-24", 0.225], ["2022-09-24", 0.225], ["2022-09-25", 0.224], ["2022-09-26", 0.221], ["2022-09-27", 0.217], ["2022-09-29", 0.214], ["2022-10-01", 0.214], ["2022-10-02", 0.214], ["2022-10-04", 0.214], ["2022-10-04", 0.212], ["2022-10-07", 0.212], ["2022-10-07", 0.211], ["2022-10-08", 0.208], ["2022-10-09", 0.208], ["2022-10-10", 0.207], ["2022-10-12", 0.207], ["2022-10-14", 0.205], ["2022-10-14", 0.205], ["2022-10-16", 0.205], ["2022-10-17", 0.206], ["2022-10-18", 0.202], ["2022-10-18", 0.202], ["2022-10-20", 0.202], ["2022-10-20", 0.2], ["2022-10-21", 0.2], ["2022-10-22", 0.202], ["2022-10-23", 0.201], ["2022-10-24", 0.201], ["2022-10-26", 0.2], ["2022-10-26", 0.201], ["2022-10-27", 0.201], ["2022-10-29", 0.2], ["2022-10-30", 0.197], ["2022-10-31", 0.195], ["2022-11-01", 0.195], ["2022-11-01", 0.195], ["2022-11-03", 0.192], ["2022-11-04", 0.194], ["2022-11-05", 0.193], ["2022-11-06", 0.196], ["2022-11-07", 0.161], ["2022-11-07", 0.149]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11553/ | Douglas Vincent Mastriano, born January 2, 1964, is an American politician from Pennsylvania. He is a retired colonel of the United States Army and is the state senator representing the 33rd district of Pennsylvania. He is the Republican Party's nominee in the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, and will face Democratic Party nominee Josh Shapiro in the election on November 8, 2022.
Some have argued that Mastriano's election could potentially be consequential for the 2024 presidential election, as he has been characterised as believing that the 2020 election was 'stolen' from Trump both nationally and in Pennsylvania, and if elected, he would hold substantial power regarding election administration in Pennsylvania.
According to New York Magazine's Intelligencer:
If Mastriano is elected governor, he will exercise near-total power over election administration in his state. The governor appoints the secretary of state, who is in charge of the election machinery. And Mastriano is already eyeing this role with bad intent, as the Washington Post reports:
“As far as cleaning up the election, I mean, I’m in a good position as governor,” he said in the April 23 appearance on [Steve] Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “I have a voting-reform-minded individual who’s been traveling the nation and knows voting reform extremely well. That individual has agreed to be my secretary of state.”
He added that he planned to decertify voting machines in several Pennsylvania counties, a power given under state law to the secretary of state. “It’s going to be a top issue for me,” he said. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Doug Mastriano is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. It resolves negatively if this does not occur for any reason | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-05-20 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-28", 0.113], ["2022-07-05", 0.113], ["2022-07-08", 0.105], ["2022-07-11", 0.105], ["2022-07-12", 0.096], ["2022-07-15", 0.096], ["2022-07-20", 0.092], ["2022-07-21", 0.086], ["2022-07-27", 0.086], ["2022-08-05", 0.086], ["2022-08-10", 0.087], ["2022-08-16", 0.088], ["2022-08-18", 0.088], ["2022-08-22", 0.091], ["2022-08-25", 0.094], ["2022-08-28", 0.104], ["2022-08-31", 0.104], ["2022-09-02", 0.107], ["2022-09-07", 0.105], ["2022-09-08", 0.106], ["2022-09-12", 0.106], ["2022-09-21", 0.106], ["2022-09-21", 0.106], ["2022-09-26", 0.107], ["2022-10-04", 0.109], ["2022-10-05", 0.109], ["2022-10-14", 0.109], ["2022-10-16", 0.131], ["2022-10-25", 0.133], ["2022-10-29", 0.137], ["2022-11-01", 0.136], ["2022-11-03", 0.137], ["2022-11-05", 0.137], ["2022-11-08", 0.146], ["2022-11-10", 0.151], ["2022-11-12", 0.16], ["2022-11-15", 0.165], ["2022-11-18", 0.24], ["2022-12-07", 0.237], ["2022-12-08", 0.237], ["2022-12-16", 0.239], ["2022-12-18", 0.251], ["2022-12-20", 0.251], ["2022-12-22", 0.264], ["2022-12-26", 0.265], ["2022-12-28", 0.266], ["2022-12-30", 0.265], ["2023-01-01", 0.264], ["2023-01-03", 0.296], ["2023-01-05", 0.292], ["2023-01-07", 0.31], ["2023-01-14", 0.31], ["2023-01-17", 0.347], ["2023-01-19", 0.358], ["2023-01-22", 0.363], ["2023-01-24", 0.38], ["2023-01-28", 0.422], ["2023-01-30", 0.449], ["2023-02-01", 0.461], ["2023-02-03", 0.462], ["2023-02-05", 0.458], ["2023-02-08", 0.47], ["2023-02-11", 0.484], ["2023-02-14", 0.464], ["2023-02-16", 0.447], ["2023-02-18", 0.451], ["2023-02-21", 0.452], ["2023-02-22", 0.452], ["2023-02-25", 0.45], ["2023-02-28", 0.451], ["2023-03-02", 0.485], ["2023-03-04", 0.504], ["2023-03-06", 0.517], ["2023-03-09", 0.532], ["2023-03-11", 0.535], ["2023-03-13", 0.526], ["2023-03-16", 0.526], ["2023-03-18", 0.529], ["2023-03-20", 0.537], ["2023-03-23", 0.547], ["2023-03-26", 0.548], ["2023-03-29", 0.553], ["2023-04-01", 0.55], ["2023-04-04", 0.553], ["2023-04-07", 0.573], ["2023-04-10", 0.576], ["2023-04-12", 0.57], ["2023-04-15", 0.57], ["2023-04-18", 0.553], ["2023-04-21", 0.551], ["2023-04-23", 0.527], ["2023-04-27", 0.493], ["2023-04-30", 0.457], ["2023-05-03", 0.421], ["2023-05-06", 0.384], ["2023-05-09", 0.372], ["2023-05-12", 0.371], ["2023-05-15", 0.323], ["2023-05-18", 0.319], ["2023-05-20", 0.314]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11568/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Arsenal win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.04], ["2022-06-25", 0.04], ["2022-06-25", 0.032], ["2022-06-25", 0.032], ["2022-06-26", 0.03], ["2022-06-28", 0.03], ["2022-06-28", 0.101], ["2022-06-28", 0.097], ["2022-06-29", 0.088], ["2022-07-05", 0.088], ["2022-07-06", 0.081], ["2022-07-11", 0.081], ["2022-07-12", 0.075], ["2022-07-15", 0.072], ["2022-07-20", 0.072], ["2022-07-21", 0.067], ["2022-07-24", 0.067], ["2022-07-27", 0.066], ["2022-08-05", 0.066], ["2022-08-18", 0.066], ["2022-08-31", 0.066], ["2022-09-12", 0.062], ["2022-09-30", 0.059], ["2022-10-14", 0.059], ["2022-10-16", 0.056], ["2022-10-25", 0.056], ["2022-10-26", 0.056], ["2022-10-29", 0.053], ["2022-11-01", 0.053], ["2022-11-12", 0.053], ["2022-11-16", 0.052], ["2022-12-18", 0.05], ["2022-12-20", 0.048], ["2023-01-26", 0.047], ["2023-01-30", 0.047], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-31", 0.044], ["2023-02-05", 0.044], ["2023-02-12", 0.044], ["2023-02-13", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-16", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-21", 0.041], ["2023-02-22", 0.039], ["2023-02-26", 0.039], ["2023-02-26", 0.039], ["2023-02-27", 0.039], ["2023-02-27", 0.037], ["2023-03-02", 0.036], ["2023-03-02", 0.035], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-04", 0.033], ["2023-03-04", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.031], ["2023-03-05", 0.03], ["2023-03-06", 0.03], ["2023-03-07", 0.03], ["2023-03-07", 0.03], ["2023-03-08", 0.029], ["2023-03-10", 0.029], ["2023-03-11", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.027], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.027], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.027], ["2023-03-12", 0.027], ["2023-03-12", 0.027], ["2023-03-12", 0.027], ["2023-03-13", 0.027], ["2023-03-13", 0.026], ["2023-03-13", 0.026], ["2023-03-13", 0.026], ["2023-03-18", 0.026], ["2023-03-18", 0.025], ["2023-03-19", 0.025], ["2023-03-19", 0.025], ["2023-03-23", 0.025], ["2023-03-25", 0.025], ["2023-03-27", 0.025], ["2023-03-31", 0.025]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11569/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Aston Villa win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-06 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.043], ["2022-06-25", 0.034], ["2022-06-25", 0.034], ["2022-06-25", 0.032], ["2022-06-26", 0.03], ["2022-06-28", 0.029], ["2022-06-28", 0.047], ["2022-06-28", 0.048], ["2022-06-28", 0.048], ["2022-06-29", 0.049], ["2022-07-04", 0.044], ["2022-07-05", 0.044], ["2022-07-06", 0.054], ["2022-07-06", 0.051], ["2022-07-11", 0.048], ["2022-07-12", 0.048], ["2022-07-15", 0.037], ["2022-07-20", 0.045], ["2022-07-21", 0.045], ["2022-07-27", 0.065], ["2022-08-05", 0.065], ["2022-08-18", 0.035], ["2022-08-31", 0.035], ["2022-09-12", 0.035], ["2022-09-30", 0.031], ["2022-09-30", 0.031], ["2022-10-14", 0.03], ["2022-10-25", 0.03], ["2022-10-29", 0.03], ["2022-11-01", 0.035], ["2022-11-12", 0.029], ["2022-12-18", 0.028], ["2022-12-20", 0.028], ["2023-01-26", 0.026], ["2023-01-30", 0.026], ["2023-01-30", 0.026], ["2023-01-31", 0.024], ["2023-02-12", 0.023], ["2023-02-15", 0.023], ["2023-02-15", 0.023], ["2023-02-15", 0.023], ["2023-02-15", 0.023], ["2023-02-15", 0.023], ["2023-02-16", 0.023], ["2023-02-20", 0.023], ["2023-02-20", 0.023], ["2023-02-20", 0.023], ["2023-02-20", 0.023], ["2023-02-21", 0.021], ["2023-02-22", 0.021], ["2023-02-26", 0.021], ["2023-02-26", 0.021], ["2023-02-27", 0.021], ["2023-02-27", 0.021], ["2023-03-02", 0.02], ["2023-03-03", 0.017], ["2023-03-03", 0.017], ["2023-03-03", 0.017], ["2023-03-04", 0.017], ["2023-03-04", 0.017], ["2023-03-05", 0.016], ["2023-03-05", 0.015]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11570/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Bournemouth win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-05 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.04], ["2022-06-25", 0.038], ["2022-06-25", 0.038], ["2022-06-25", 0.032], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-26", 0.028], ["2022-06-28", 0.027], ["2022-06-28", 0.09], ["2022-06-28", 0.094], ["2022-06-29", 0.086], ["2022-07-05", 0.086], ["2022-07-06", 0.086], ["2022-07-06", 0.085], ["2022-07-11", 0.078], ["2022-07-12", 0.072], ["2022-07-15", 0.072], ["2022-07-20", 0.069], ["2022-07-21", 0.069], ["2022-07-27", 0.065], ["2022-08-05", 0.065], ["2022-08-18", 0.065], ["2022-08-31", 0.065], ["2022-09-12", 0.065], ["2022-09-30", 0.061], ["2022-10-14", 0.057], ["2022-10-20", 0.055], ["2022-10-25", 0.055], ["2022-10-26", 0.054], ["2022-10-29", 0.052], ["2022-11-01", 0.052], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-12-18", 0.049], ["2022-12-20", 0.049], ["2023-01-26", 0.047], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-31", 0.044], ["2023-02-05", 0.044], ["2023-02-12", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-16", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-21", 0.04], ["2023-02-22", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-27", 0.04], ["2023-02-27", 0.038], ["2023-03-02", 0.038], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-05", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.031], ["2023-03-06", 0.031], ["2023-03-07", 0.03], ["2023-03-07", 0.03], ["2023-03-08", 0.03], ["2023-03-10", 0.03], ["2023-03-11", 0.029], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.027], ["2023-03-13", 0.027], ["2023-03-18", 0.027], ["2023-03-18", 0.027], ["2023-03-19", 0.027], ["2023-03-19", 0.027], ["2023-03-23", 0.027], ["2023-03-25", 0.027], ["2023-03-27", 0.027], ["2023-03-31", 0.026], ["2023-04-01", 0.026], ["2023-04-02", 0.025], ["2023-04-02", 0.025], ["2023-04-02", 0.024], ["2023-04-03", 0.024], ["2023-04-03", 0.024]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11571/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Brentford win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-26 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-26", 0.031], ["2022-06-28", 0.031], ["2022-06-28", 0.063], ["2022-06-29", 0.063], ["2022-07-02", 0.058], ["2022-07-04", 0.057], ["2022-07-05", 0.056], ["2022-07-06", 0.056], ["2022-07-11", 0.048], ["2022-07-12", 0.048], ["2022-07-15", 0.048], ["2022-07-20", 0.047], ["2022-07-21", 0.044], ["2022-07-24", 0.043], ["2022-07-27", 0.043], ["2022-08-05", 0.043], ["2022-08-18", 0.043], ["2022-08-25", 0.044], ["2022-08-25", 0.044], ["2022-08-31", 0.045], ["2022-08-31", 0.044], ["2022-09-02", 0.043], ["2022-09-07", 0.043], ["2022-09-07", 0.044], ["2022-09-12", 0.045], ["2022-09-26", 0.042], ["2022-09-26", 0.041], ["2022-09-30", 0.039], ["2022-10-14", 0.039], ["2022-10-21", 0.037], ["2022-10-24", 0.037], ["2022-10-25", 0.037], ["2022-10-29", 0.035], ["2022-11-01", 0.035], ["2022-11-12", 0.035], ["2022-11-16", 0.035], ["2022-11-25", 0.035], ["2022-12-18", 0.033], ["2022-12-20", 0.032], ["2023-01-03", 0.031], ["2023-01-26", 0.031], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-31", 0.03], ["2023-02-05", 0.029], ["2023-02-12", 0.028], ["2023-02-13", 0.027], ["2023-02-15", 0.027], ["2023-02-16", 0.027], ["2023-02-20", 0.027], ["2023-02-21", 0.025], ["2023-02-22", 0.025], ["2023-02-24", 0.025], ["2023-02-26", 0.025], ["2023-02-26", 0.025], ["2023-02-27", 0.024], ["2023-03-02", 0.024], ["2023-03-03", 0.022], ["2023-03-03", 0.022], ["2023-03-04", 0.022], ["2023-03-05", 0.02], ["2023-03-05", 0.019], ["2023-03-06", 0.019], ["2023-03-07", 0.019], ["2023-03-08", 0.019], ["2023-03-10", 0.018], ["2023-03-11", 0.018], ["2023-03-12", 0.017], ["2023-03-13", 0.017], ["2023-03-13", 0.017], ["2023-03-18", 0.017], ["2023-03-18", 0.016], ["2023-03-19", 0.016], ["2023-03-19", 0.016], ["2023-03-23", 0.016], ["2023-03-25", 0.016], ["2023-03-27", 0.016], ["2023-03-31", 0.016], ["2023-03-31", 0.015], ["2023-04-01", 0.015], ["2023-04-02", 0.014], ["2023-04-02", 0.014], ["2023-04-03", 0.014], ["2023-04-03", 0.014], ["2023-04-06", 0.014], ["2023-04-07", 0.014], ["2023-04-09", 0.014], ["2023-04-10", 0.013], ["2023-04-10", 0.013], ["2023-04-12", 0.013], ["2023-04-15", 0.013], ["2023-04-15", 0.013], ["2023-04-16", 0.013], ["2023-04-17", 0.012], ["2023-04-19", 0.012], ["2023-04-20", 0.012], ["2023-04-21", 0.012], ["2023-04-21", 0.012], ["2023-04-22", 0.012], ["2023-04-23", 0.012], ["2023-04-24", 0.011]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11572/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.09], ["2022-06-25", 0.082], ["2022-06-26", 0.081], ["2022-06-27", 0.081], ["2022-06-27", 0.074], ["2022-06-28", 0.127], ["2022-07-05", 0.13], ["2022-07-06", 0.131], ["2022-07-06", 0.131], ["2022-07-07", 0.125], ["2022-07-11", 0.123], ["2022-07-11", 0.126], ["2022-07-12", 0.126], ["2022-07-19", 0.129], ["2022-07-20", 0.129], ["2022-07-21", 0.129], ["2022-07-27", 0.128], ["2022-08-05", 0.128], ["2022-08-09", 0.153], ["2022-08-12", 0.153], ["2022-08-16", 0.153], ["2022-08-18", 0.153], ["2022-08-20", 0.152], ["2022-08-25", 0.15], ["2022-08-25", 0.146], ["2022-08-31", 0.146], ["2022-08-31", 0.143], ["2022-09-07", 0.143], ["2022-09-08", 0.141], ["2022-09-12", 0.141], ["2022-09-26", 0.139], ["2022-10-14", 0.132], ["2022-10-14", 0.133], ["2022-10-16", 0.134], ["2022-10-20", 0.134], ["2022-10-25", 0.134], ["2022-10-25", 0.134], ["2022-10-29", 0.135], ["2022-10-29", 0.129], ["2022-10-29", 0.129], ["2022-10-30", 0.128], ["2022-11-01", 0.127], ["2022-11-03", 0.126], ["2022-11-06", 0.126], ["2022-11-07", 0.126], ["2022-11-07", 0.124], ["2022-11-10", 0.124], ["2022-11-11", 0.12], ["2022-11-11", 0.119], ["2022-11-12", 0.119], ["2022-11-16", 0.119], ["2022-12-16", 0.11], ["2022-12-18", 0.105], ["2022-12-20", 0.101], ["2022-12-21", 0.097], ["2023-01-05", 0.096], ["2023-01-05", 0.096], ["2023-01-20", 0.095], ["2023-01-24", 0.092], ["2023-01-24", 0.092], ["2023-01-25", 0.092], ["2023-01-26", 0.088], ["2023-01-26", 0.087], ["2023-01-30", 0.087], ["2023-01-30", 0.082], ["2023-01-31", 0.082], ["2023-02-05", 0.082], ["2023-02-12", 0.082], ["2023-02-15", 0.078], ["2023-02-16", 0.078], ["2023-02-20", 0.078], ["2023-02-21", 0.076], ["2023-02-22", 0.076], ["2023-02-26", 0.076], ["2023-02-26", 0.076], ["2023-02-27", 0.076], ["2023-03-02", 0.067], ["2023-03-02", 0.067], ["2023-03-03", 0.067], ["2023-03-03", 0.067], ["2023-03-04", 0.064], ["2023-03-05", 0.059], ["2023-03-05", 0.059], ["2023-03-06", 0.057], ["2023-03-06", 0.057], ["2023-03-07", 0.057], ["2023-03-08", 0.057], ["2023-03-10", 0.057], ["2023-03-11", 0.055], ["2023-03-12", 0.053], ["2023-03-13", 0.053], ["2023-03-13", 0.052], ["2023-03-13", 0.052], ["2023-03-18", 0.052], ["2023-03-18", 0.051], ["2023-03-19", 0.051], ["2023-03-19", 0.051], ["2023-03-23", 0.051], ["2023-03-25", 0.051], ["2023-03-27", 0.051], ["2023-03-31", 0.049]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11573/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Chelsea win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-12 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.037], ["2022-06-25", 0.037], ["2022-06-25", 0.035], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-26", 0.027], ["2022-06-28", 0.099], ["2022-06-28", 0.099], ["2022-06-28", 0.09], ["2022-06-29", 0.094], ["2022-07-04", 0.085], ["2022-07-05", 0.085], ["2022-07-06", 0.086], ["2022-07-06", 0.079], ["2022-07-10", 0.079], ["2022-07-11", 0.073], ["2022-07-12", 0.073], ["2022-07-15", 0.072], ["2022-07-20", 0.07], ["2022-07-21", 0.065], ["2022-07-24", 0.065], ["2022-07-27", 0.065], ["2022-08-05", 0.065], ["2022-08-18", 0.065], ["2022-08-31", 0.065], ["2022-09-12", 0.065], ["2022-09-30", 0.061], ["2022-10-14", 0.054], ["2022-10-16", 0.055], ["2022-10-25", 0.055], ["2022-10-26", 0.054], ["2022-10-29", 0.052], ["2022-11-01", 0.052], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-11-16", 0.051], ["2022-12-18", 0.049], ["2022-12-20", 0.049], ["2023-01-26", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-31", 0.044], ["2023-02-12", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-16", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-21", 0.041], ["2023-02-22", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-27", 0.04], ["2023-03-02", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-05", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.031], ["2023-03-06", 0.031], ["2023-03-06", 0.031], ["2023-03-07", 0.031], ["2023-03-08", 0.03], ["2023-03-10", 0.03], ["2023-03-11", 0.029], ["2023-03-12", 0.028]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11574/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Crystal Palace win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-06 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.033], ["2022-06-25", 0.032], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-25", 0.027], ["2022-06-25", 0.025], ["2022-06-26", 0.025], ["2022-06-28", 0.096], ["2022-06-28", 0.096], ["2022-06-28", 0.091], ["2022-06-28", 0.091], ["2022-06-29", 0.092], ["2022-07-04", 0.084], ["2022-07-05", 0.083], ["2022-07-06", 0.084], ["2022-07-06", 0.077], ["2022-07-10", 0.076], ["2022-07-11", 0.076], ["2022-07-12", 0.071], ["2022-07-15", 0.068], ["2022-07-20", 0.068], ["2022-07-21", 0.068], ["2022-07-27", 0.063], ["2022-08-05", 0.063], ["2022-08-18", 0.063], ["2022-08-31", 0.063], ["2022-09-12", 0.059], ["2022-09-30", 0.056], ["2022-10-14", 0.053], ["2022-10-16", 0.053], ["2022-10-25", 0.054], ["2022-10-26", 0.054], ["2022-10-29", 0.051], ["2022-11-01", 0.051], ["2022-11-12", 0.051], ["2022-12-18", 0.051], ["2022-12-20", 0.048], ["2023-01-26", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-31", 0.043], ["2023-02-12", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-16", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-21", 0.04], ["2023-02-22", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-27", 0.038], ["2023-03-02", 0.038], ["2023-03-02", 0.038], ["2023-03-03", 0.037], ["2023-03-03", 0.037], ["2023-03-03", 0.037], ["2023-03-04", 0.037], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-05", 0.033], ["2023-03-05", 0.032]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11575/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Everton win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.045], ["2022-06-25", 0.038], ["2022-06-25", 0.033], ["2022-06-26", 0.033], ["2022-06-26", 0.033], ["2022-06-26", 0.03], ["2022-06-27", 0.029], ["2022-06-28", 0.092], ["2022-06-28", 0.085], ["2022-06-28", 0.085], ["2022-07-05", 0.088], ["2022-07-06", 0.089], ["2022-07-06", 0.082], ["2022-07-07", 0.081], ["2022-07-11", 0.075], ["2022-07-12", 0.075], ["2022-07-15", 0.075], ["2022-07-20", 0.072], ["2022-07-21", 0.068], ["2022-07-24", 0.068], ["2022-07-27", 0.067], ["2022-08-05", 0.067], ["2022-08-18", 0.067], ["2022-08-31", 0.067], ["2022-09-12", 0.063], ["2022-09-30", 0.059], ["2022-10-14", 0.056], ["2022-10-22", 0.057], ["2022-10-25", 0.057], ["2022-10-26", 0.056], ["2022-10-29", 0.054], ["2022-11-01", 0.054], ["2022-11-12", 0.054], ["2022-12-18", 0.051], ["2022-12-20", 0.049], ["2023-01-26", 0.049], ["2023-01-30", 0.048], ["2023-01-30", 0.048], ["2023-01-30", 0.048], ["2023-01-30", 0.048], ["2023-01-30", 0.048], ["2023-01-30", 0.048], ["2023-01-31", 0.046], ["2023-02-12", 0.043], ["2023-02-15", 0.043], ["2023-02-15", 0.043], ["2023-02-15", 0.043], ["2023-02-15", 0.043], ["2023-02-15", 0.043], ["2023-02-16", 0.043], ["2023-02-20", 0.043], ["2023-02-20", 0.043], ["2023-02-20", 0.043], ["2023-02-20", 0.043], ["2023-02-21", 0.042], ["2023-02-22", 0.042], ["2023-02-26", 0.042], ["2023-02-26", 0.042], ["2023-02-27", 0.04], ["2023-03-02", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.033], ["2023-03-05", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.031], ["2023-03-06", 0.031], ["2023-03-07", 0.031], ["2023-03-07", 0.031], ["2023-03-08", 0.031], ["2023-03-10", 0.03], ["2023-03-11", 0.029], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-12", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.028], ["2023-03-13", 0.027], ["2023-03-18", 0.027], ["2023-03-18", 0.027], ["2023-03-19", 0.027], ["2023-03-19", 0.027], ["2023-03-23", 0.027], ["2023-03-25", 0.027], ["2023-03-27", 0.027], ["2023-03-31", 0.026], ["2023-04-01", 0.026]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11576/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Fulham win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-06 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.035], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-25", 0.027], ["2022-06-26", 0.026], ["2022-06-28", 0.026], ["2022-06-28", 0.056], ["2022-06-28", 0.058], ["2022-06-29", 0.053], ["2022-07-05", 0.083], ["2022-07-06", 0.084], ["2022-07-06", 0.077], ["2022-07-11", 0.072], ["2022-07-12", 0.047], ["2022-07-15", 0.043], ["2022-07-20", 0.043], ["2022-07-21", 0.041], ["2022-07-27", 0.041], ["2022-08-05", 0.041], ["2022-08-18", 0.064], ["2022-08-23", 0.065], ["2022-08-23", 0.064], ["2022-08-23", 0.065], ["2022-08-23", 0.064], ["2022-08-31", 0.064], ["2022-09-12", 0.06], ["2022-09-30", 0.06], ["2022-10-14", 0.054], ["2022-10-25", 0.054], ["2022-10-29", 0.054], ["2022-11-01", 0.051], ["2022-11-12", 0.051], ["2022-12-18", 0.051], ["2022-12-20", 0.047], ["2022-12-20", 0.047], ["2023-01-26", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.044], ["2023-01-31", 0.043], ["2023-02-12", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-16", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-21", 0.039], ["2023-02-22", 0.039], ["2023-02-26", 0.039], ["2023-02-26", 0.039], ["2023-02-27", 0.039], ["2023-03-02", 0.038], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-04", 0.033], ["2023-03-05", 0.032]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11577/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Leeds United win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-11 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.07], ["2022-06-25", 0.07], ["2022-06-25", 0.06], ["2022-06-25", 0.053], ["2022-06-25", 0.05], ["2022-06-26", 0.05], ["2022-06-28", 0.119], ["2022-06-28", 0.111], ["2022-06-28", 0.114], ["2022-06-29", 0.114], ["2022-07-05", 0.104], ["2022-07-06", 0.095], ["2022-07-07", 0.095], ["2022-07-08", 0.095], ["2022-07-09", 0.094], ["2022-07-10", 0.093], ["2022-07-11", 0.086], ["2022-07-12", 0.086], ["2022-07-15", 0.083], ["2022-07-20", 0.083], ["2022-07-21", 0.078], ["2022-07-27", 0.078], ["2022-08-05", 0.078], ["2022-08-18", 0.078], ["2022-08-20", 0.077], ["2022-08-22", 0.075], ["2022-08-29", 0.072], ["2022-08-31", 0.072], ["2022-09-12", 0.072], ["2022-09-30", 0.064], ["2022-10-14", 0.064], ["2022-10-20", 0.061], ["2022-10-25", 0.061], ["2022-10-26", 0.061], ["2022-10-29", 0.058], ["2022-11-01", 0.058], ["2022-11-12", 0.058], ["2022-12-18", 0.058], ["2022-12-20", 0.055], ["2023-01-26", 0.053], ["2023-01-30", 0.052], ["2023-01-30", 0.052], ["2023-01-31", 0.049], ["2023-02-12", 0.046], ["2023-02-13", 0.046], ["2023-02-15", 0.045], ["2023-02-15", 0.045], ["2023-02-15", 0.045], ["2023-02-15", 0.045], ["2023-02-15", 0.045], ["2023-02-16", 0.045], ["2023-02-20", 0.045], ["2023-02-20", 0.045], ["2023-02-20", 0.045], ["2023-02-20", 0.045], ["2023-02-21", 0.045], ["2023-02-22", 0.044], ["2023-02-26", 0.044], ["2023-02-26", 0.044], ["2023-02-27", 0.042], ["2023-03-02", 0.042], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-05", 0.033], ["2023-03-05", 0.031], ["2023-03-06", 0.031], ["2023-03-06", 0.03], ["2023-03-07", 0.03], ["2023-03-08", 0.03], ["2023-03-10", 0.03], ["2023-03-11", 0.029]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11578/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Leicester City win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-09 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.4], ["2022-06-27", 0.264], ["2022-06-28", 0.299], ["2022-07-02", 0.3], ["2022-07-05", 0.3], ["2022-07-06", 0.304], ["2022-07-07", 0.306], ["2022-07-11", 0.307], ["2022-07-12", 0.307], ["2022-07-15", 0.307], ["2022-07-20", 0.307], ["2022-07-21", 0.307], ["2022-07-27", 0.307], ["2022-08-05", 0.307], ["2022-08-07", 0.308], ["2022-08-10", 0.303], ["2022-08-12", 0.303], ["2022-08-12", 0.3], ["2022-08-15", 0.3], ["2022-08-16", 0.298], ["2022-08-18", 0.294], ["2022-08-20", 0.285], ["2022-08-23", 0.285], ["2022-08-24", 0.283], ["2022-08-25", 0.269], ["2022-08-31", 0.269], ["2022-08-31", 0.273], ["2022-09-07", 0.27], ["2022-09-08", 0.262], ["2022-09-12", 0.262], ["2022-09-21", 0.258], ["2022-09-26", 0.256], ["2022-10-04", 0.251], ["2022-10-14", 0.236], ["2022-10-16", 0.234], ["2022-10-16", 0.232], ["2022-10-25", 0.232], ["2022-10-29", 0.232], ["2022-10-30", 0.206], ["2022-11-01", 0.206], ["2022-11-03", 0.204], ["2022-11-05", 0.205], ["2022-11-10", 0.199], ["2022-11-11", 0.195], ["2022-11-12", 0.194], ["2022-11-15", 0.193], ["2022-11-16", 0.187], ["2022-11-25", 0.187], ["2022-11-25", 0.188], ["2022-12-16", 0.179], ["2022-12-18", 0.17], ["2022-12-19", 0.169], ["2022-12-20", 0.169], ["2022-12-21", 0.164], ["2022-12-30", 0.159], ["2023-01-01", 0.159], ["2023-01-02", 0.157], ["2023-01-05", 0.157], ["2023-01-14", 0.155], ["2023-01-17", 0.155], ["2023-01-20", 0.155], ["2023-01-24", 0.148], ["2023-01-25", 0.146], ["2023-01-26", 0.129], ["2023-01-28", 0.124], ["2023-01-30", 0.123], ["2023-02-01", 0.107], ["2023-02-04", 0.107], ["2023-02-05", 0.107], ["2023-02-12", 0.102], ["2023-02-15", 0.102], ["2023-02-16", 0.101], ["2023-02-18", 0.101], ["2023-02-19", 0.101], ["2023-02-21", 0.1], ["2023-02-22", 0.1], ["2023-02-25", 0.1], ["2023-02-26", 0.1], ["2023-02-27", 0.099], ["2023-03-02", 0.095], ["2023-03-03", 0.068], ["2023-03-04", 0.068], ["2023-03-05", 0.059], ["2023-03-06", 0.058], ["2023-03-08", 0.057], ["2023-03-09", 0.057], ["2023-03-10", 0.057], ["2023-03-12", 0.054], ["2023-03-13", 0.052], ["2023-03-16", 0.052], ["2023-03-18", 0.051], ["2023-03-19", 0.051], ["2023-03-23", 0.051], ["2023-03-25", 0.051], ["2023-03-27", 0.051], ["2023-03-31", 0.05], ["2023-04-02", 0.047], ["2023-04-03", 0.042], ["2023-04-06", 0.042], ["2023-04-07", 0.041], ["2023-04-09", 0.04]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11579/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Liverpool win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-05-20 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.4], ["2022-06-27", 0.314], ["2022-06-29", 0.47], ["2022-07-02", 0.474], ["2022-07-04", 0.476], ["2022-07-06", 0.476], ["2022-07-10", 0.481], ["2022-07-12", 0.487], ["2022-07-15", 0.502], ["2022-07-19", 0.504], ["2022-07-21", 0.484], ["2022-07-27", 0.471], ["2022-08-05", 0.471], ["2022-08-07", 0.473], ["2022-08-10", 0.477], ["2022-08-12", 0.475], ["2022-08-16", 0.479], ["2022-08-18", 0.479], ["2022-08-21", 0.493], ["2022-08-23", 0.496], ["2022-08-25", 0.504], ["2022-08-28", 0.504], ["2022-08-31", 0.517], ["2022-09-07", 0.517], ["2022-09-08", 0.522], ["2022-09-12", 0.524], ["2022-09-19", 0.515], ["2022-09-20", 0.513], ["2022-09-26", 0.514], ["2022-10-04", 0.514], ["2022-10-14", 0.517], ["2022-10-18", 0.541], ["2022-10-25", 0.541], ["2022-10-29", 0.555], ["2022-10-30", 0.579], ["2022-11-03", 0.574], ["2022-11-05", 0.574], ["2022-11-07", 0.569], ["2022-11-10", 0.579], ["2022-11-12", 0.579], ["2022-11-15", 0.569], ["2022-11-18", 0.545], ["2022-11-25", 0.545], ["2022-11-25", 0.545], ["2022-12-07", 0.554], ["2022-12-08", 0.553], ["2022-12-16", 0.553], ["2022-12-18", 0.554], ["2022-12-20", 0.554], ["2022-12-26", 0.554], ["2022-12-28", 0.552], ["2023-01-01", 0.547], ["2023-01-03", 0.561], ["2023-01-07", 0.563], ["2023-01-14", 0.568], ["2023-01-15", 0.559], ["2023-01-18", 0.549], ["2023-01-20", 0.546], ["2023-01-24", 0.53], ["2023-01-26", 0.525], ["2023-01-30", 0.507], ["2023-02-01", 0.505], ["2023-02-03", 0.504], ["2023-02-05", 0.511], ["2023-02-08", 0.501], ["2023-02-11", 0.512], ["2023-02-14", 0.527], ["2023-02-15", 0.536], ["2023-02-17", 0.548], ["2023-02-19", 0.544], ["2023-02-22", 0.541], ["2023-02-24", 0.54], ["2023-02-28", 0.536], ["2023-03-02", 0.53], ["2023-03-05", 0.519], ["2023-03-08", 0.499], ["2023-03-11", 0.498], ["2023-03-13", 0.506], ["2023-03-16", 0.506], ["2023-03-20", 0.492], ["2023-03-22", 0.493], ["2023-03-26", 0.492], ["2023-03-30", 0.492], ["2023-04-02", 0.492], ["2023-04-04", 0.49], ["2023-04-07", 0.486], ["2023-04-10", 0.486], ["2023-04-12", 0.485], ["2023-04-15", 0.486], ["2023-04-18", 0.539], ["2023-04-21", 0.537], ["2023-04-24", 0.566], ["2023-04-27", 0.663], ["2023-04-30", 0.722], ["2023-05-04", 0.767], ["2023-05-07", 0.796], ["2023-05-10", 0.797], ["2023-05-14", 0.801], ["2023-05-16", 0.826], ["2023-05-20", 0.828], ["2023-05-20", 0.83]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11580/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Manchester City win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-05-04 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.05], ["2022-06-26", 0.062], ["2022-06-28", 0.141], ["2022-06-29", 0.126], ["2022-07-04", 0.124], ["2022-07-06", 0.12], ["2022-07-08", 0.12], ["2022-07-10", 0.118], ["2022-07-12", 0.114], ["2022-07-15", 0.113], ["2022-07-20", 0.113], ["2022-07-21", 0.106], ["2022-07-27", 0.106], ["2022-08-05", 0.106], ["2022-08-06", 0.106], ["2022-08-18", 0.106], ["2022-08-20", 0.103], ["2022-08-25", 0.102], ["2022-08-25", 0.1], ["2022-08-28", 0.095], ["2022-08-31", 0.095], ["2022-09-07", 0.096], ["2022-09-08", 0.096], ["2022-09-12", 0.095], ["2022-09-26", 0.094], ["2022-10-14", 0.089], ["2022-10-16", 0.088], ["2022-10-25", 0.088], ["2022-10-29", 0.084], ["2022-10-30", 0.086], ["2022-11-01", 0.085], ["2022-11-06", 0.084], ["2022-11-07", 0.083], ["2022-11-12", 0.083], ["2022-11-12", 0.083], ["2022-11-16", 0.084], ["2022-11-25", 0.084], ["2022-12-16", 0.084], ["2022-12-19", 0.076], ["2022-12-20", 0.072], ["2022-12-21", 0.07], ["2023-01-01", 0.071], ["2023-01-03", 0.071], ["2023-01-14", 0.072], ["2023-01-15", 0.076], ["2023-01-17", 0.076], ["2023-01-18", 0.075], ["2023-01-20", 0.073], ["2023-01-22", 0.071], ["2023-01-26", 0.07], ["2023-01-28", 0.069], ["2023-01-30", 0.069], ["2023-02-01", 0.068], ["2023-02-03", 0.068], ["2023-02-05", 0.07], ["2023-02-07", 0.071], ["2023-02-10", 0.075], ["2023-02-11", 0.075], ["2023-02-14", 0.083], ["2023-02-15", 0.083], ["2023-02-16", 0.083], ["2023-02-18", 0.083], ["2023-02-19", 0.083], ["2023-02-21", 0.083], ["2023-02-23", 0.083], ["2023-02-24", 0.084], ["2023-02-26", 0.084], ["2023-02-28", 0.083], ["2023-03-02", 0.081], ["2023-03-03", 0.081], ["2023-03-04", 0.077], ["2023-03-07", 0.072], ["2023-03-08", 0.07], ["2023-03-09", 0.07], ["2023-03-12", 0.07], ["2023-03-13", 0.067], ["2023-03-16", 0.067], ["2023-03-17", 0.063], ["2023-03-18", 0.061], ["2023-03-20", 0.056], ["2023-03-23", 0.056], ["2023-03-25", 0.056], ["2023-03-29", 0.056], ["2023-03-31", 0.055], ["2023-04-02", 0.051], ["2023-04-03", 0.05], ["2023-04-05", 0.05], ["2023-04-06", 0.05], ["2023-04-08", 0.043], ["2023-04-10", 0.04], ["2023-04-14", 0.039], ["2023-04-16", 0.036], ["2023-04-17", 0.035], ["2023-04-20", 0.034], ["2023-04-22", 0.034], ["2023-04-24", 0.032], ["2023-04-26", 0.032], ["2023-04-28", 0.03], ["2023-04-30", 0.029], ["2023-05-03", 0.036], ["2023-05-04", 0.034]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11581/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Manchester United win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-05-06 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-26", 0.037], ["2022-06-28", 0.037], ["2022-06-29", 0.103], ["2022-07-04", 0.094], ["2022-07-05", 0.063], ["2022-07-07", 0.057], ["2022-07-11", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-15", 0.077], ["2022-07-20", 0.077], ["2022-07-21", 0.077], ["2022-07-27", 0.072], ["2022-08-05", 0.072], ["2022-08-18", 0.072], ["2022-08-23", 0.048], ["2022-08-23", 0.05], ["2022-08-31", 0.073], ["2022-09-12", 0.073], ["2022-09-30", 0.069], ["2022-10-01", 0.064], ["2022-10-14", 0.061], ["2022-10-16", 0.061], ["2022-10-18", 0.06], ["2022-10-25", 0.06], ["2022-10-29", 0.057], ["2022-10-30", 0.057], ["2022-11-01", 0.056], ["2022-11-12", 0.058], ["2022-11-12", 0.058], ["2022-11-15", 0.04], ["2022-11-16", 0.04], ["2022-11-18", 0.041], ["2022-12-16", 0.041], ["2022-12-18", 0.039], ["2022-12-20", 0.038], ["2022-12-28", 0.038], ["2023-01-01", 0.038], ["2023-01-01", 0.037], ["2023-01-05", 0.036], ["2023-01-14", 0.037], ["2023-01-15", 0.036], ["2023-01-16", 0.037], ["2023-01-18", 0.037], ["2023-01-18", 0.037], ["2023-01-21", 0.037], ["2023-01-26", 0.037], ["2023-01-26", 0.038], ["2023-01-30", 0.037], ["2023-02-01", 0.036], ["2023-02-04", 0.036], ["2023-02-05", 0.036], ["2023-02-08", 0.036], ["2023-02-10", 0.037], ["2023-02-11", 0.037], ["2023-02-12", 0.035], ["2023-02-13", 0.035], ["2023-02-15", 0.035], ["2023-02-16", 0.035], ["2023-02-18", 0.034], ["2023-02-20", 0.034], ["2023-02-22", 0.032], ["2023-02-24", 0.032], ["2023-02-24", 0.032], ["2023-02-26", 0.032], ["2023-02-27", 0.029], ["2023-03-02", 0.024], ["2023-03-03", 0.024], ["2023-03-04", 0.024], ["2023-03-05", 0.027], ["2023-03-06", 0.027], ["2023-03-08", 0.026], ["2023-03-10", 0.026], ["2023-03-12", 0.024], ["2023-03-13", 0.023], ["2023-03-18", 0.022], ["2023-03-19", 0.019], ["2023-03-23", 0.019], ["2023-03-25", 0.019], ["2023-03-27", 0.019], ["2023-03-31", 0.018], ["2023-04-01", 0.018], ["2023-04-03", 0.017], ["2023-04-06", 0.017], ["2023-04-07", 0.016], ["2023-04-09", 0.016], ["2023-04-10", 0.014], ["2023-04-13", 0.014], ["2023-04-15", 0.014], ["2023-04-17", 0.014], ["2023-04-19", 0.014], ["2023-04-20", 0.014], ["2023-04-22", 0.013], ["2023-04-24", 0.012], ["2023-04-26", 0.012], ["2023-04-28", 0.013], ["2023-04-30", 0.013], ["2023-05-01", 0.013], ["2023-05-03", 0.021], ["2023-05-05", 0.021], ["2023-05-05", 0.021]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11582/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Newcastle United win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-11 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.038], ["2022-06-25", 0.032], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-26", 0.028], ["2022-06-28", 0.027], ["2022-06-28", 0.09], ["2022-06-28", 0.09], ["2022-06-29", 0.094], ["2022-07-05", 0.086], ["2022-07-06", 0.088], ["2022-07-07", 0.087], ["2022-07-11", 0.081], ["2022-07-12", 0.081], ["2022-07-15", 0.078], ["2022-07-20", 0.069], ["2022-07-21", 0.069], ["2022-07-27", 0.065], ["2022-08-05", 0.065], ["2022-08-18", 0.065], ["2022-08-31", 0.065], ["2022-09-12", 0.065], ["2022-09-30", 0.057], ["2022-10-14", 0.054], ["2022-10-16", 0.055], ["2022-10-25", 0.055], ["2022-10-26", 0.054], ["2022-10-29", 0.052], ["2022-11-01", 0.052], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-12-18", 0.049], ["2022-12-20", 0.047], ["2023-01-01", 0.046], ["2023-01-26", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.044], ["2023-01-30", 0.044], ["2023-01-31", 0.044], ["2023-02-12", 0.044], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.042], ["2023-02-16", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-20", 0.042], ["2023-02-21", 0.042], ["2023-02-22", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-26", 0.04], ["2023-02-27", 0.038], ["2023-03-02", 0.038], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-03", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.036], ["2023-03-04", 0.034], ["2023-03-05", 0.033], ["2023-03-05", 0.031], ["2023-03-06", 0.031], ["2023-03-07", 0.031], ["2023-03-08", 0.03], ["2023-03-10", 0.03], ["2023-03-11", 0.029]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11583/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Nottingham Forest win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-06 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.033], ["2022-06-25", 0.033], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-25", 0.025], ["2022-06-26", 0.024], ["2022-06-28", 0.024], ["2022-06-28", 0.088], ["2022-06-28", 0.091], ["2022-06-28", 0.091], ["2022-06-29", 0.092], ["2022-07-04", 0.083], ["2022-07-05", 0.083], ["2022-07-06", 0.083], ["2022-07-06", 0.077], ["2022-07-07", 0.076], ["2022-07-11", 0.076], ["2022-07-12", 0.071], ["2022-07-15", 0.068], ["2022-07-20", 0.068], ["2022-07-21", 0.063], ["2022-07-27", 0.063], ["2022-08-05", 0.063], ["2022-08-18", 0.063], ["2022-08-31", 0.063], ["2022-09-12", 0.059], ["2022-09-30", 0.056], ["2022-10-14", 0.053], ["2022-10-16", 0.054], ["2022-10-25", 0.054], ["2022-10-26", 0.053], ["2022-10-29", 0.051], ["2022-11-01", 0.051], ["2022-11-12", 0.051], ["2022-11-25", 0.051], ["2022-12-18", 0.048], ["2022-12-20", 0.046], ["2023-01-26", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.046], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-30", 0.045], ["2023-01-31", 0.043], ["2023-02-12", 0.043], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-15", 0.041], ["2023-02-16", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-20", 0.041], ["2023-02-21", 0.039], ["2023-02-22", 0.039], ["2023-02-26", 0.039], ["2023-02-26", 0.039], ["2023-02-27", 0.039], ["2023-03-02", 0.037], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-04", 0.035], ["2023-03-04", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.032]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11584/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Southampton win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-21 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-26", 0.057], ["2022-06-28", 0.138], ["2022-06-29", 0.133], ["2022-07-05", 0.122], ["2022-07-06", 0.122], ["2022-07-07", 0.116], ["2022-07-11", 0.112], ["2022-07-12", 0.112], ["2022-07-15", 0.112], ["2022-07-20", 0.111], ["2022-07-21", 0.106], ["2022-07-27", 0.106], ["2022-08-05", 0.106], ["2022-08-10", 0.107], ["2022-08-18", 0.107], ["2022-08-20", 0.106], ["2022-08-25", 0.107], ["2022-08-31", 0.107], ["2022-08-31", 0.107], ["2022-09-07", 0.107], ["2022-09-08", 0.106], ["2022-09-12", 0.106], ["2022-09-26", 0.106], ["2022-10-04", 0.103], ["2022-10-14", 0.096], ["2022-10-15", 0.096], ["2022-10-16", 0.097], ["2022-10-16", 0.098], ["2022-10-25", 0.098], ["2022-10-26", 0.098], ["2022-10-29", 0.093], ["2022-10-30", 0.09], ["2022-11-01", 0.09], ["2022-11-05", 0.089], ["2022-11-10", 0.087], ["2022-11-11", 0.085], ["2022-11-12", 0.085], ["2022-11-16", 0.083], ["2022-11-18", 0.083], ["2022-11-25", 0.083], ["2022-12-16", 0.079], ["2022-12-18", 0.076], ["2022-12-19", 0.075], ["2022-12-20", 0.072], ["2022-12-28", 0.072], ["2023-01-05", 0.071], ["2023-01-20", 0.07], ["2023-01-24", 0.069], ["2023-01-26", 0.068], ["2023-01-26", 0.064], ["2023-01-28", 0.064], ["2023-01-30", 0.063], ["2023-01-31", 0.063], ["2023-02-05", 0.063], ["2023-02-06", 0.063], ["2023-02-08", 0.063], ["2023-02-08", 0.063], ["2023-02-11", 0.063], ["2023-02-12", 0.063], ["2023-02-13", 0.06], ["2023-02-15", 0.06], ["2023-02-16", 0.059], ["2023-02-20", 0.059], ["2023-02-21", 0.057], ["2023-02-22", 0.057], ["2023-02-24", 0.057], ["2023-02-26", 0.057], ["2023-02-27", 0.054], ["2023-03-02", 0.05], ["2023-03-03", 0.05], ["2023-03-04", 0.05], ["2023-03-05", 0.045], ["2023-03-06", 0.043], ["2023-03-08", 0.042], ["2023-03-10", 0.042], ["2023-03-12", 0.04], ["2023-03-13", 0.038], ["2023-03-13", 0.037], ["2023-03-18", 0.036], ["2023-03-18", 0.036], ["2023-03-20", 0.036], ["2023-03-23", 0.036], ["2023-03-25", 0.036], ["2023-03-27", 0.036], ["2023-03-31", 0.036], ["2023-04-01", 0.035], ["2023-04-02", 0.033], ["2023-04-03", 0.033], ["2023-04-06", 0.033], ["2023-04-07", 0.033], ["2023-04-09", 0.032], ["2023-04-10", 0.03], ["2023-04-13", 0.029], ["2023-04-15", 0.029], ["2023-04-16", 0.028], ["2023-04-17", 0.028], ["2023-04-19", 0.027], ["2023-04-20", 0.027], ["2023-04-21", 0.027], ["2023-04-21", 0.027]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11585/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Tottenham Hotspur win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-06 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-26", 0.028], ["2022-06-28", 0.029], ["2022-06-28", 0.1], ["2022-06-28", 0.098], ["2022-06-29", 0.098], ["2022-07-04", 0.088], ["2022-07-05", 0.088], ["2022-07-06", 0.082], ["2022-07-11", 0.076], ["2022-07-11", 0.076], ["2022-07-12", 0.074], ["2022-07-15", 0.071], ["2022-07-20", 0.071], ["2022-07-21", 0.071], ["2022-07-27", 0.066], ["2022-08-05", 0.066], ["2022-08-18", 0.066], ["2022-08-25", 0.065], ["2022-08-28", 0.064], ["2022-08-28", 0.064], ["2022-08-28", 0.064], ["2022-08-28", 0.064], ["2022-08-31", 0.065], ["2022-09-12", 0.061], ["2022-09-15", 0.061], ["2022-09-21", 0.061], ["2022-09-21", 0.061], ["2022-09-21", 0.061], ["2022-09-30", 0.056], ["2022-10-14", 0.053], ["2022-10-16", 0.053], ["2022-10-25", 0.054], ["2022-10-26", 0.053], ["2022-10-29", 0.051], ["2022-11-01", 0.051], ["2022-11-12", 0.051], ["2022-11-16", 0.05], ["2022-11-25", 0.05], ["2022-12-18", 0.048], ["2022-12-20", 0.048], ["2023-01-22", 0.044], ["2023-01-26", 0.044], ["2023-01-30", 0.043], ["2023-01-30", 0.044], ["2023-01-30", 0.043], ["2023-01-30", 0.043], ["2023-01-31", 0.042], ["2023-02-12", 0.042], ["2023-02-15", 0.04], ["2023-02-15", 0.04], ["2023-02-15", 0.04], ["2023-02-15", 0.04], ["2023-02-15", 0.04], ["2023-02-16", 0.04], ["2023-02-20", 0.04], ["2023-02-20", 0.04], ["2023-02-20", 0.04], ["2023-02-20", 0.04], ["2023-02-21", 0.038], ["2023-02-22", 0.038], ["2023-02-26", 0.038], ["2023-02-26", 0.038], ["2023-02-27", 0.037], ["2023-03-02", 0.037], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-03", 0.035], ["2023-03-04", 0.033], ["2023-03-04", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.032], ["2023-03-05", 0.031], ["2023-03-05", 0.03]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11586/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will West Ham United win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-12 | 2022-06-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-25", 0.01], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.037], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.03], ["2022-06-25", 0.028], ["2022-06-26", 0.026], ["2022-06-28", 0.06], ["2022-06-28", 0.06], ["2022-06-28", 0.056], ["2022-06-29", 0.058], ["2022-07-05", 0.053], ["2022-07-06", 0.049], ["2022-07-07", 0.048], ["2022-07-11", 0.048], ["2022-07-12", 0.045], ["2022-07-15", 0.043], ["2022-07-20", 0.043], ["2022-07-21", 0.041], ["2022-07-27", 0.041], ["2022-08-05", 0.041], ["2022-08-18", 0.041], ["2022-08-31", 0.041], ["2022-09-12", 0.039], ["2022-09-30", 0.037], ["2022-10-14", 0.035], ["2022-10-16", 0.036], ["2022-10-22", 0.036], ["2022-10-25", 0.035], ["2022-10-29", 0.035], ["2022-11-01", 0.034], ["2022-11-12", 0.034], ["2022-12-18", 0.032], ["2022-12-20", 0.032], ["2023-01-26", 0.031], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-30", 0.03], ["2023-01-31", 0.029], ["2023-02-12", 0.028], ["2023-02-15", 0.027], ["2023-02-15", 0.027], ["2023-02-15", 0.027], ["2023-02-15", 0.027], ["2023-02-15", 0.027], ["2023-02-16", 0.027], ["2023-02-20", 0.027], ["2023-02-20", 0.027], ["2023-02-20", 0.027], ["2023-02-20", 0.027], ["2023-02-21", 0.025], ["2023-02-22", 0.025], ["2023-02-26", 0.025], ["2023-02-26", 0.025], ["2023-02-27", 0.025], ["2023-03-02", 0.022], ["2023-03-03", 0.022], ["2023-03-03", 0.022], ["2023-03-03", 0.022], ["2023-03-04", 0.022], ["2023-03-04", 0.021], ["2023-03-05", 0.02], ["2023-03-05", 0.02], ["2023-03-05", 0.02], ["2023-03-06", 0.019], ["2023-03-07", 0.019], ["2023-03-08", 0.019], ["2023-03-10", 0.019], ["2023-03-11", 0.018], ["2023-03-12", 0.017], ["2023-03-12", 0.017]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11587/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League?
The Premier League is the highest division of professional English football. It is one of the most-watched contemporary sports with 14 million total attendees in the 2018-2019 season.
The 2021-2022 season was won by Manchester City, their sixth title won since 1992.
The 2022-2023 season is scheduled to be held from August 5, 2022 to May 28, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below who wins the 2022-2023 Premier League, and No for all other teams | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Wolverhampton Wanderers win the 2022-2023 Premier League? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-26 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.25], ["2022-06-27", 0.26], ["2022-06-28", 0.401], ["2022-06-29", 0.426], ["2022-06-30", 0.426], ["2022-06-30", 0.398], ["2022-07-01", 0.373], ["2022-07-02", 0.373], ["2022-07-04", 0.36], ["2022-07-05", 0.36], ["2022-07-08", 0.36], ["2022-07-09", 0.307], ["2022-07-10", 0.307], ["2022-07-12", 0.304], ["2022-07-13", 0.304], ["2022-07-15", 0.288], ["2022-07-16", 0.284], ["2022-07-19", 0.277], ["2022-07-20", 0.28], ["2022-07-27", 0.274], ["2022-08-05", 0.28], ["2022-08-14", 0.28], ["2022-08-15", 0.272], ["2022-08-18", 0.272], ["2022-08-23", 0.272], ["2022-08-24", 0.258], ["2022-08-31", 0.258], ["2022-09-16", 0.256], ["2022-09-16", 0.254], ["2022-10-04", 0.245], ["2022-10-05", 0.251], ["2022-10-05", 0.253], ["2022-10-06", 0.254], ["2022-10-07", 0.266], ["2022-10-16", 0.266], ["2022-10-16", 0.267], ["2022-10-22", 0.262], ["2022-10-23", 0.261], ["2022-10-25", 0.256], ["2022-10-27", 0.268], ["2022-10-28", 0.316], ["2022-10-29", 0.44], ["2022-10-30", 0.461], ["2022-10-30", 0.468], ["2022-10-31", 0.468], ["2022-11-01", 0.477], ["2022-11-02", 0.485], ["2022-11-02", 0.484], ["2022-11-03", 0.5], ["2022-11-05", 0.5], ["2022-11-05", 0.5], ["2022-11-08", 0.501], ["2022-11-12", 0.501], ["2022-11-13", 0.501], ["2022-11-14", 0.488], ["2022-11-16", 0.494], ["2022-11-16", 0.494], ["2022-11-18", 0.494], ["2022-11-19", 0.496], ["2022-11-20", 0.501], ["2022-11-21", 0.503], ["2022-11-22", 0.506], ["2022-11-22", 0.525], ["2022-11-23", 0.525], ["2022-11-24", 0.557], ["2022-11-25", 0.584], ["2022-11-25", 0.587], ["2022-11-26", 0.595], ["2022-11-27", 0.593], ["2022-11-28", 0.593], ["2022-11-30", 0.591], ["2022-12-01", 0.59], ["2022-12-02", 0.583], ["2022-12-02", 0.583], ["2022-12-03", 0.575], ["2022-12-05", 0.574], ["2022-12-07", 0.574], ["2022-12-07", 0.573], ["2022-12-09", 0.562], ["2022-12-10", 0.564], ["2022-12-13", 0.564], ["2022-12-15", 0.561], ["2022-12-16", 0.561], ["2022-12-17", 0.548], ["2022-12-18", 0.539], ["2022-12-19", 0.539], ["2022-12-20", 0.441], ["2022-12-21", 0.436], ["2022-12-22", 0.421], ["2022-12-23", 0.417], ["2022-12-24", 0.417], ["2022-12-24", 0.404], ["2022-12-25", 0.388], ["2022-12-26", 0.373], ["2022-12-27", 0.372], ["2022-12-28", 0.365], ["2022-12-28", 0.354], ["2022-12-29", 0.341], ["2022-12-30", 0.332], ["2022-12-31", 0.202], ["2022-12-31", 0.194]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11595/ | Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?
With Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter and explicitly talking about a return to its previously more free speech approach, there is a question about whether some prominent individuals who were banned will be unbanned. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed to have created a new account with the permission of Twitter before January 1, 2023. This resolves as No for any individual who is still banned on January 1, 2023 and was not unbanned during the relevant time period.
If an individual satisfies the resolution criteria but is later banned again this still resolves as Yes for that individual. Where an individual creates a new account but it is unclear if Twitter has allowed them to do so admins may use their discretion to determine appropriate resolution or resolve the question ambiguously for that individual | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter unban Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny) before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-26 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-27", 0.18], ["2022-06-27", 0.214], ["2022-06-28", 0.353], ["2022-06-29", 0.368], ["2022-07-05", 0.368], ["2022-07-05", 0.368], ["2022-07-08", 0.354], ["2022-07-09", 0.264], ["2022-07-10", 0.263], ["2022-07-11", 0.246], ["2022-07-12", 0.246], ["2022-07-13", 0.246], ["2022-07-15", 0.238], ["2022-07-16", 0.233], ["2022-07-20", 0.233], ["2022-07-27", 0.233], ["2022-08-05", 0.233], ["2022-08-18", 0.233], ["2022-08-23", 0.233], ["2022-08-27", 0.217], ["2022-08-31", 0.24], ["2022-09-16", 0.239], ["2022-10-04", 0.239], ["2022-10-05", 0.212], ["2022-10-05", 0.213], ["2022-10-16", 0.214], ["2022-10-16", 0.214], ["2022-10-22", 0.214], ["2022-10-24", 0.214], ["2022-10-25", 0.214], ["2022-10-27", 0.223], ["2022-10-28", 0.371], ["2022-10-29", 0.444], ["2022-10-30", 0.459], ["2022-10-31", 0.476], ["2022-10-31", 0.49], ["2022-11-01", 0.49], ["2022-11-02", 0.492], ["2022-11-02", 0.491], ["2022-11-04", 0.478], ["2022-11-04", 0.477], ["2022-11-05", 0.475], ["2022-11-07", 0.472], ["2022-11-08", 0.472], ["2022-11-09", 0.472], ["2022-11-12", 0.468], ["2022-11-13", 0.467], ["2022-11-16", 0.468], ["2022-11-17", 0.468], ["2022-11-18", 0.465], ["2022-11-19", 0.441], ["2022-11-20", 0.477], ["2022-11-21", 0.483], ["2022-11-22", 0.495], ["2022-11-23", 0.508], ["2022-11-24", 0.526], ["2022-11-24", 0.54], ["2022-11-25", 0.566], ["2022-11-26", 0.573], ["2022-11-26", 0.573], ["2022-11-27", 0.58], ["2022-11-28", 0.579], ["2022-11-29", 0.58], ["2022-11-29", 0.58], ["2022-11-30", 0.574], ["2022-12-01", 0.573], ["2022-12-01", 0.585], ["2022-12-02", 0.584], ["2022-12-03", 0.576], ["2022-12-04", 0.563], ["2022-12-05", 0.562], ["2022-12-07", 0.562], ["2022-12-07", 0.556], ["2022-12-09", 0.553], ["2022-12-10", 0.553], ["2022-12-12", 0.552], ["2022-12-12", 0.552], ["2022-12-14", 0.55], ["2022-12-15", 0.55], ["2022-12-15", 0.549], ["2022-12-16", 0.532], ["2022-12-17", 0.518], ["2022-12-19", 0.518], ["2022-12-19", 0.465], ["2022-12-20", 0.453], ["2022-12-21", 0.45], ["2022-12-21", 0.449], ["2022-12-22", 0.437], ["2022-12-23", 0.433], ["2022-12-24", 0.426], ["2022-12-24", 0.422], ["2022-12-25", 0.408], ["2022-12-25", 0.403], ["2022-12-26", 0.39], ["2022-12-27", 0.383], ["2022-12-28", 0.38], ["2022-12-28", 0.368], ["2022-12-29", 0.36], ["2022-12-30", 0.353], ["2022-12-31", 0.241], ["2022-12-31", 0.229]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11596/ | Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?
With Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter and explicitly talking about a return to its previously more free speech approach, there is a question about whether some prominent individuals who were banned will be unbanned. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed to have created a new account with the permission of Twitter before January 1, 2023. This resolves as No for any individual who is still banned on January 1, 2023 and was not unbanned during the relevant time period.
If an individual satisfies the resolution criteria but is later banned again this still resolves as Yes for that individual. Where an individual creates a new account but it is unclear if Twitter has allowed them to do so admins may use their discretion to determine appropriate resolution or resolve the question ambiguously for that individual | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter unban Milo Yiannopoulos before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-05-11 | 2022-06-30 | ["https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/21-468.html", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/21-468.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-supreme-court-rejects-challenge-california-humane-pig-confinement-law-2023-05-11/", "https://blog.humanesociety.org/2022/08/experts-file-briefs-key-us-supreme-court-case-proposition-12.html?credit=blog_em_header_blog_post_081622_idhome-page", "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-pork-producers-council-v-ross/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11402/n-pork-producers-council-v-ross-affirmed/", "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#whoedits", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11729/scotusnational-pork-producers-council-v-ross/#comment-97243", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-468/228387/20220617195711500_No.%2021-468%20Natl%20Pork%20Producers%20v.%20Ross%20Final.pdf", "https://mailchi.mp/3fefd38a8bef/farm-animals-at-the-supreme-court?e=25c73a9aa0", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/14pdf/13-485_o7jp.pdf"] | binary | [["2022-07-15", 0.31], ["2022-07-16", 0.31], ["2022-07-16", 0.49], ["2022-07-16", 0.54], ["2022-07-16", 0.588], ["2022-07-17", 0.658], ["2022-07-17", 0.608], ["2022-07-17", 0.549], ["2022-07-17", 0.549], ["2022-07-18", 0.563], ["2022-07-18", 0.63], ["2022-07-18", 0.63], ["2022-07-18", 0.634], ["2022-07-18", 0.625], ["2022-07-18", 0.625], ["2022-07-19", 0.628], ["2022-07-19", 0.62], ["2022-07-19", 0.619], ["2022-07-19", 0.619], ["2022-07-19", 0.617], ["2022-07-19", 0.625], ["2022-07-20", 0.625], ["2022-07-28", 0.622], ["2022-08-03", 0.622], ["2022-08-03", 0.604], ["2022-08-03", 0.604], ["2022-08-03", 0.607], ["2022-08-04", 0.603], ["2022-08-04", 0.598], ["2022-08-05", 0.598], ["2022-08-05", 0.596], ["2022-08-07", 0.608], ["2022-08-10", 0.608], ["2022-08-17", 0.601], ["2022-08-18", 0.601], ["2022-08-31", 0.605], ["2022-09-19", 0.605], ["2022-09-20", 0.607], ["2022-10-05", 0.606], ["2022-10-05", 0.605], ["2022-10-05", 0.604], ["2022-10-05", 0.604], ["2022-10-05", 0.606], ["2022-10-11", 0.606], ["2022-10-11", 0.595], ["2022-10-12", 0.594], ["2022-10-12", 0.584], ["2022-10-12", 0.584], ["2022-10-14", 0.582], ["2022-10-16", 0.58], ["2022-10-16", 0.581], ["2022-10-20", 0.58], ["2022-10-20", 0.579], ["2022-10-24", 0.573], ["2022-10-24", 0.573], ["2022-10-25", 0.57], ["2022-11-08", 0.571], ["2022-11-08", 0.569], ["2022-11-12", 0.569], ["2022-11-15", 0.57], ["2023-03-07", 0.568], ["2023-03-08", 0.567], ["2023-03-23", 0.567], ["2023-03-25", 0.571], ["2023-03-28", 0.569], ["2023-03-29", 0.567], ["2023-03-29", 0.568], ["2023-04-05", 0.568], ["2023-04-06", 0.568], ["2023-04-07", 0.567], ["2023-04-08", 0.567], ["2023-04-14", 0.57], ["2023-04-14", 0.571], ["2023-04-20", 0.571], ["2023-04-21", 0.571], ["2023-04-22", 0.571], ["2023-04-23", 0.571], ["2023-04-23", 0.571], ["2023-04-24", 0.571], ["2023-05-01", 0.571], ["2023-05-09", 0.567]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11624/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Supreme Court is currently planning to hear a case, National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross, which will have massive near-term impacts on the welfare of farmed animals raised in the worst conditions.
Proposition 12 was a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).
The National Pork Producers Council is hoping that the Supreme Court will find California's law in violation of the Dormant Commerce Clause, while California is hoping that the court will consider banning caged farming a legitimate reason to burden interstate commerce and thus uphold their law.
Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross by the end of 2023?
This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court rules in National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross that California's Ballot Proposition 12 is unconstitutional. If SCOTUS delivers a mixed ruling that only part of Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, this question will resolve as Yes if that part is the more significant part, according to Metaculus' discretion. If SCOTUS remands the case to a lower court, this question will resolve as Yes if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds that Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, and litigation for this case ends before 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve as No. | true | 2024-01-01 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.06], ["2022-07-13", 0.167], ["2022-07-14", 0.172], ["2022-07-14", 0.23], ["2022-07-15", 0.268], ["2022-07-15", 0.268], ["2022-07-20", 0.332], ["2022-07-24", 0.385], ["2022-07-24", 0.372], ["2022-07-24", 0.391], ["2022-07-27", 0.391], ["2022-08-01", 0.398], ["2022-08-03", 0.399], ["2022-08-03", 0.399], ["2022-08-03", 0.398], ["2022-08-04", 0.395], ["2022-08-05", 0.385], ["2022-08-05", 0.375], ["2022-08-05", 0.375], ["2022-08-11", 0.375], ["2022-08-13", 0.359], ["2022-08-18", 0.359], ["2022-08-23", 0.337], ["2022-08-28", 0.337], ["2022-08-31", 0.345], ["2022-09-11", 0.345], ["2022-09-12", 0.34], ["2022-09-19", 0.34], ["2022-09-21", 0.335], ["2022-10-01", 0.33], ["2022-10-01", 0.33], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-01", 0.315], ["2022-10-02", 0.316], ["2022-10-02", 0.313], ["2022-10-03", 0.306], ["2022-10-04", 0.295], ["2022-10-04", 0.291], ["2022-10-05", 0.288], ["2022-10-13", 0.279], ["2022-10-15", 0.279], ["2022-10-16", 0.278], ["2022-10-16", 0.278], ["2022-10-25", 0.278], ["2022-10-26", 0.278], ["2022-11-01", 0.277], ["2022-11-03", 0.277], ["2022-11-10", 0.277], ["2022-11-10", 0.277], ["2022-11-10", 0.277], ["2022-11-11", 0.256], ["2022-11-12", 0.256], ["2022-11-14", 0.256], ["2022-11-15", 0.255], ["2022-11-24", 0.248], ["2022-11-25", 0.231], ["2022-11-25", 0.231], ["2022-11-25", 0.244], ["2022-11-26", 0.244], ["2022-11-27", 0.228], ["2022-11-28", 0.228], ["2022-12-02", 0.222], ["2022-12-02", 0.222], ["2022-12-06", 0.221], ["2022-12-09", 0.217], ["2022-12-17", 0.205], ["2022-12-17", 0.207], ["2022-12-23", 0.198], ["2022-12-23", 0.189], ["2022-12-23", 0.189], ["2022-12-23", 0.198], ["2022-12-23", 0.198], ["2022-12-25", 0.198], ["2022-12-27", 0.198], ["2022-12-28", 0.192], ["2022-12-30", 0.181]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11630/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in India in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.05], ["2022-07-13", 0.065], ["2022-07-13", 0.166], ["2022-07-14", 0.225], ["2022-07-15", 0.225], ["2022-07-15", 0.264], ["2022-07-20", 0.33], ["2022-07-24", 0.397], ["2022-07-27", 0.394], ["2022-07-28", 0.41], ["2022-08-01", 0.415], ["2022-08-03", 0.42], ["2022-08-03", 0.422], ["2022-08-04", 0.422], ["2022-08-05", 0.407], ["2022-08-05", 0.399], ["2022-08-05", 0.399], ["2022-08-11", 0.399], ["2022-08-13", 0.385], ["2022-08-15", 0.385], ["2022-08-18", 0.386], ["2022-08-22", 0.386], ["2022-08-22", 0.393], ["2022-08-26", 0.414], ["2022-08-28", 0.414], ["2022-08-28", 0.437], ["2022-08-28", 0.444], ["2022-08-30", 0.455], ["2022-08-31", 0.455], ["2022-08-31", 0.468], ["2022-08-31", 0.468], ["2022-09-01", 0.486], ["2022-09-01", 0.488], ["2022-09-01", 0.491], ["2022-09-02", 0.502], ["2022-09-11", 0.485], ["2022-09-19", 0.483], ["2022-09-20", 0.482], ["2022-10-01", 0.461], ["2022-10-02", 0.459], ["2022-10-03", 0.459], ["2022-10-13", 0.456], ["2022-10-14", 0.452], ["2022-10-15", 0.451], ["2022-10-15", 0.44], ["2022-10-16", 0.44], ["2022-10-16", 0.442], ["2022-10-16", 0.44], ["2022-10-20", 0.438], ["2022-10-22", 0.437], ["2022-10-24", 0.435], ["2022-10-25", 0.435], ["2022-11-01", 0.435], ["2022-11-05", 0.434], ["2022-11-12", 0.434], ["2022-11-13", 0.434], ["2022-11-25", 0.435], ["2022-11-25", 0.436], ["2022-11-26", 0.436], ["2022-11-26", 0.437], ["2022-11-27", 0.412], ["2022-11-28", 0.402], ["2022-12-02", 0.4], ["2022-12-02", 0.4], ["2022-12-06", 0.403], ["2022-12-07", 0.402], ["2022-12-23", 0.369], ["2022-12-23", 0.363], ["2022-12-23", 0.39], ["2022-12-23", 0.39], ["2022-12-23", 0.378], ["2022-12-23", 0.362], ["2022-12-23", 0.362], ["2022-12-23", 0.362], ["2022-12-23", 0.357], ["2022-12-23", 0.357], ["2022-12-23", 0.354], ["2022-12-25", 0.354], ["2022-12-25", 0.35], ["2022-12-25", 0.352], ["2022-12-25", 0.349], ["2022-12-27", 0.342], ["2022-12-28", 0.341], ["2022-12-28", 0.341], ["2022-12-28", 0.34], ["2022-12-30", 0.322], ["2022-12-30", 0.322], ["2022-12-30", 0.312], ["2022-12-30", 0.312], ["2022-12-30", 0.322], ["2022-12-30", 0.322], ["2022-12-31", 0.33]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11631/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Pakistan in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-14", 0.219], ["2022-07-15", 0.261], ["2022-07-15", 0.332], ["2022-07-20", 0.332], ["2022-07-24", 0.358], ["2022-07-27", 0.358], ["2022-07-28", 0.358], ["2022-08-01", 0.389], ["2022-08-03", 0.39], ["2022-08-03", 0.39], ["2022-08-04", 0.389], ["2022-08-05", 0.394], ["2022-08-05", 0.392], ["2022-08-05", 0.392], ["2022-08-13", 0.392], ["2022-08-15", 0.405], ["2022-08-18", 0.405], ["2022-08-28", 0.449], ["2022-08-28", 0.449], ["2022-08-30", 0.46], ["2022-08-31", 0.46], ["2022-09-01", 0.461], ["2022-10-01", 0.431], ["2022-10-02", 0.428], ["2022-10-03", 0.428], ["2022-10-13", 0.426], ["2022-10-16", 0.424], ["2022-10-16", 0.423], ["2022-10-25", 0.422], ["2022-10-26", 0.422], ["2022-11-01", 0.424], ["2022-11-03", 0.422], ["2022-11-12", 0.422], ["2022-11-13", 0.423], ["2022-11-24", 0.423], ["2022-11-25", 0.418], ["2022-11-25", 0.422], ["2022-11-25", 0.424], ["2022-11-26", 0.424], ["2022-11-27", 0.394], ["2022-12-02", 0.394], ["2022-12-02", 0.394], ["2022-12-02", 0.388], ["2022-12-03", 0.379], ["2022-12-06", 0.386], ["2022-12-06", 0.387], ["2022-12-07", 0.387], ["2022-12-23", 0.356], ["2022-12-23", 0.356], ["2022-12-23", 0.381], ["2022-12-23", 0.381], ["2022-12-23", 0.352], ["2022-12-23", 0.352], ["2022-12-23", 0.345], ["2022-12-23", 0.35], ["2022-12-27", 0.35]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11632/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Bangladesh in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.05], ["2022-07-13", 0.05], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.125], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.125], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-14", 0.04], ["2022-07-14", 0.034], ["2022-07-15", 0.093], ["2022-07-15", 0.089], ["2022-07-20", 0.178], ["2022-07-24", 0.178], ["2022-07-25", 0.163], ["2022-07-27", 0.164], ["2022-08-01", 0.153], ["2022-08-04", 0.141], ["2022-08-05", 0.141], ["2022-08-13", 0.132], ["2022-08-18", 0.132], ["2022-08-31", 0.132], ["2022-09-19", 0.134], ["2022-10-01", 0.127], ["2022-10-13", 0.125], ["2022-10-16", 0.128], ["2022-10-25", 0.128], ["2022-10-25", 0.129], ["2022-11-01", 0.129], ["2022-11-08", 0.13], ["2022-11-12", 0.13], ["2022-11-13", 0.13], ["2022-11-25", 0.13], ["2022-11-25", 0.129], ["2022-11-25", 0.129], ["2022-11-26", 0.131], ["2022-12-02", 0.131], ["2022-12-02", 0.127], ["2022-12-06", 0.126], ["2022-12-23", 0.124], ["2022-12-23", 0.122], ["2022-12-23", 0.12], ["2022-12-27", 0.114], ["2022-12-30", 0.114], ["2022-12-30", 0.114], ["2022-12-30", 0.114], ["2022-12-30", 0.113]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11633/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Tajikistan in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.062], ["2022-07-14", 0.062], ["2022-07-15", 0.143], ["2022-07-15", 0.143], ["2022-07-20", 0.165], ["2022-07-24", 0.234], ["2022-07-27", 0.234], ["2022-07-28", 0.234], ["2022-08-01", 0.217], ["2022-08-03", 0.212], ["2022-08-04", 0.212], ["2022-08-05", 0.199], ["2022-08-05", 0.192], ["2022-08-05", 0.189], ["2022-08-06", 0.196], ["2022-08-13", 0.19], ["2022-08-18", 0.19], ["2022-08-31", 0.19], ["2022-09-11", 0.185], ["2022-09-12", 0.185], ["2022-09-13", 0.178], ["2022-10-01", 0.178], ["2022-10-13", 0.164], ["2022-10-14", 0.164], ["2022-10-16", 0.164], ["2022-10-16", 0.165], ["2022-10-16", 0.164], ["2022-10-20", 0.162], ["2022-10-20", 0.161], ["2022-10-21", 0.161], ["2022-10-25", 0.16], ["2022-10-28", 0.159], ["2022-11-01", 0.159], ["2022-11-05", 0.159], ["2022-11-10", 0.157], ["2022-11-10", 0.159], ["2022-11-11", 0.159], ["2022-11-12", 0.159], ["2022-11-25", 0.159], ["2022-11-25", 0.159], ["2022-11-26", 0.169], ["2022-11-27", 0.159], ["2022-12-02", 0.152], ["2022-12-02", 0.152], ["2022-12-06", 0.151], ["2022-12-23", 0.149], ["2022-12-23", 0.148], ["2022-12-23", 0.149], ["2022-12-27", 0.146], ["2022-12-30", 0.145], ["2022-12-30", 0.146]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11634/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Nepal in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.08], ["2022-07-13", 0.065], ["2022-07-13", 0.065], ["2022-07-13", 0.065], ["2022-07-14", 0.223], ["2022-07-15", 0.261], ["2022-07-15", 0.261], ["2022-07-15", 0.325], ["2022-07-20", 0.32], ["2022-07-24", 0.389], ["2022-07-24", 0.368], ["2022-07-27", 0.368], ["2022-08-01", 0.368], ["2022-08-03", 0.401], ["2022-08-03", 0.379], ["2022-08-04", 0.379], ["2022-08-05", 0.349], ["2022-08-05", 0.331], ["2022-08-11", 0.301], ["2022-08-12", 0.299], ["2022-08-13", 0.299], ["2022-08-18", 0.292], ["2022-08-30", 0.296], ["2022-08-30", 0.296], ["2022-08-31", 0.304], ["2022-09-19", 0.307], ["2022-10-01", 0.307], ["2022-10-01", 0.304], ["2022-10-01", 0.304], ["2022-10-01", 0.304], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.304], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.304], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-01", 0.304], ["2022-10-02", 0.304], ["2022-10-13", 0.306], ["2022-10-16", 0.299], ["2022-10-16", 0.301], ["2022-10-20", 0.3], ["2022-10-21", 0.297], ["2022-10-25", 0.297], ["2022-10-26", 0.297], ["2022-10-26", 0.292], ["2022-11-01", 0.292], ["2022-11-05", 0.292], ["2022-11-10", 0.292], ["2022-11-10", 0.285], ["2022-11-11", 0.285], ["2022-11-11", 0.282], ["2022-11-12", 0.282], ["2022-11-25", 0.287], ["2022-11-25", 0.289], ["2022-11-26", 0.291], ["2022-11-26", 0.274], ["2022-11-27", 0.271], ["2022-12-02", 0.271], ["2022-12-02", 0.263], ["2022-12-06", 0.263], ["2022-12-08", 0.264], ["2022-12-23", 0.27], ["2022-12-23", 0.274], ["2022-12-23", 0.263], ["2022-12-23", 0.262], ["2022-12-23", 0.263], ["2022-12-23", 0.262], ["2022-12-23", 0.256], ["2022-12-23", 0.256], ["2022-12-23", 0.255], ["2022-12-23", 0.244], ["2022-12-25", 0.234], ["2022-12-25", 0.234], ["2022-12-27", 0.242]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11635/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Papua New Guinea in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.035], ["2022-07-13", 0.054], ["2022-07-14", 0.133], ["2022-07-15", 0.129], ["2022-07-15", 0.142], ["2022-07-15", 0.14], ["2022-07-20", 0.234], ["2022-07-24", 0.234], ["2022-07-24", 0.208], ["2022-07-24", 0.181], ["2022-07-25", 0.173], ["2022-07-27", 0.173], ["2022-08-01", 0.16], ["2022-08-03", 0.16], ["2022-08-04", 0.148], ["2022-08-05", 0.157], ["2022-08-13", 0.146], ["2022-08-18", 0.146], ["2022-08-31", 0.146], ["2022-10-01", 0.146], ["2022-10-13", 0.135], ["2022-10-16", 0.137], ["2022-10-16", 0.139], ["2022-10-16", 0.139], ["2022-10-25", 0.139], ["2022-10-26", 0.138], ["2022-11-01", 0.138], ["2022-11-12", 0.138], ["2022-11-14", 0.139], ["2022-11-25", 0.132], ["2022-11-25", 0.131], ["2022-11-25", 0.141], ["2022-11-26", 0.133], ["2022-12-02", 0.128], ["2022-12-02", 0.127], ["2022-12-06", 0.127], ["2022-12-23", 0.12], ["2022-12-23", 0.119], ["2022-12-25", 0.118], ["2022-12-25", 0.118], ["2022-12-25", 0.118], ["2022-12-25", 0.119], ["2022-12-25", 0.117], ["2022-12-25", 0.117], ["2022-12-27", 0.111]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11636/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Korea DPR in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.02], ["2022-07-13", 0.02], ["2022-07-13", 0.025], ["2022-07-13", 0.025], ["2022-07-14", 0.064], ["2022-07-15", 0.148], ["2022-07-15", 0.148], ["2022-07-20", 0.173], ["2022-07-24", 0.231], ["2022-07-27", 0.231], ["2022-07-28", 0.217], ["2022-08-01", 0.213], ["2022-08-03", 0.214], ["2022-08-03", 0.213], ["2022-08-04", 0.196], ["2022-08-05", 0.196], ["2022-08-05", 0.189], ["2022-08-05", 0.187], ["2022-08-05", 0.18], ["2022-08-13", 0.18], ["2022-08-14", 0.187], ["2022-08-15", 0.193], ["2022-08-18", 0.193], ["2022-08-29", 0.197], ["2022-08-31", 0.197], ["2022-10-01", 0.185], ["2022-10-01", 0.183], ["2022-10-01", 0.185], ["2022-10-01", 0.183], ["2022-10-02", 0.181], ["2022-10-03", 0.181], ["2022-10-13", 0.18], ["2022-10-16", 0.181], ["2022-10-25", 0.182], ["2022-10-26", 0.181], ["2022-11-01", 0.181], ["2022-11-03", 0.181], ["2022-11-12", 0.181], ["2022-11-13", 0.181], ["2022-11-25", 0.181], ["2022-11-25", 0.181], ["2022-11-25", 0.191], ["2022-11-26", 0.193], ["2022-11-26", 0.182], ["2022-11-27", 0.182], ["2022-12-02", 0.179], ["2022-12-04", 0.173], ["2022-12-06", 0.173], ["2022-12-08", 0.174], ["2022-12-23", 0.172], ["2022-12-23", 0.178], ["2022-12-27", 0.178]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11637/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Lao PDR in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.057], ["2022-07-14", 0.136], ["2022-07-15", 0.132], ["2022-07-15", 0.132], ["2022-07-15", 0.19], ["2022-07-15", 0.19], ["2022-07-20", 0.189], ["2022-07-21", 0.24], ["2022-07-24", 0.24], ["2022-07-24", 0.217], ["2022-07-25", 0.203], ["2022-07-27", 0.203], ["2022-08-01", 0.203], ["2022-08-03", 0.16], ["2022-08-03", 0.16], ["2022-08-04", 0.16], ["2022-08-05", 0.147], ["2022-08-13", 0.137], ["2022-08-18", 0.137], ["2022-08-31", 0.137], ["2022-10-01", 0.129], ["2022-10-01", 0.128], ["2022-10-02", 0.127], ["2022-10-13", 0.119], ["2022-10-14", 0.119], ["2022-10-16", 0.118], ["2022-10-25", 0.12], ["2022-10-26", 0.119], ["2022-11-01", 0.119], ["2022-11-12", 0.119], ["2022-11-25", 0.119], ["2022-11-25", 0.119], ["2022-11-26", 0.122], ["2022-12-02", 0.116], ["2022-12-02", 0.115], ["2022-12-06", 0.115], ["2022-12-23", 0.108], ["2022-12-23", 0.109], ["2022-12-27", 0.109], ["2022-12-30", 0.104], ["2022-12-30", 0.104]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11638/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED, and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
Country Fatalities (2021) Forcibly Displaced Persons
India 1,010 92,590
Pakistan 1,409 288,404
Bangladesh 347 88,167
Tajikistan 20 4,435
Nepal 10 18,358
Papua New Guinea 131 25,143
Korea DPR 32 636
Lao PDR 1 7,252
Cambodia 3 12,965
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
Country Fatalities (2022)
India 556
Pakistan 843
Bangladesh 153
Tajikistan 30
Nepal 8
Papua New Guinea 55
Korea DPR 23
Lao PDR 0
Cambodia 1
A partial dataset for ACLED's fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Cambodia in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-06", 0.05], ["2022-07-06", 0.075], ["2022-07-06", 0.07], ["2022-07-06", 0.065], ["2022-07-06", 0.127], ["2022-07-06", 0.127], ["2022-07-07", 0.11], ["2022-07-07", 0.108], ["2022-07-07", 0.096], ["2022-07-07", 0.155], ["2022-07-08", 0.155], ["2022-07-09", 0.14], ["2022-07-09", 0.137], ["2022-07-09", 0.111], ["2022-07-09", 0.111], ["2022-07-10", 0.101], ["2022-07-10", 0.101], ["2022-07-10", 0.098], ["2022-07-10", 0.096], ["2022-07-11", 0.089], ["2022-07-11", 0.087], ["2022-07-11", 0.087], ["2022-07-11", 0.087], ["2022-07-11", 0.083], ["2022-07-11", 0.083], ["2022-07-12", 0.146], ["2022-07-12", 0.146], ["2022-07-12", 0.136], ["2022-07-13", 0.129], ["2022-07-13", 0.168], ["2022-07-15", 0.168], ["2022-07-19", 0.168], ["2022-07-20", 0.162], ["2022-07-20", 0.163], ["2022-07-20", 0.163], ["2022-07-27", 0.155], ["2022-08-03", 0.155], ["2022-08-04", 0.154], ["2022-08-04", 0.142], ["2022-08-05", 0.142], ["2022-08-05", 0.142], ["2022-08-13", 0.136], ["2022-08-18", 0.136], ["2022-08-23", 0.152], ["2022-08-29", 0.152], ["2022-08-31", 0.148], ["2022-09-09", 0.148], ["2022-09-11", 0.148], ["2022-09-11", 0.147], ["2022-09-12", 0.147], ["2022-09-24", 0.146], ["2022-10-01", 0.141], ["2022-10-01", 0.139], ["2022-10-01", 0.139], ["2022-10-02", 0.142], ["2022-10-02", 0.142], ["2022-10-02", 0.14], ["2022-10-02", 0.143], ["2022-10-02", 0.143], ["2022-10-02", 0.139], ["2022-10-02", 0.143], ["2022-10-02", 0.139], ["2022-10-04", 0.134], ["2022-10-13", 0.133], ["2022-10-16", 0.134], ["2022-10-17", 0.134], ["2022-10-25", 0.13], ["2022-10-26", 0.129], ["2022-10-27", 0.128], ["2022-10-27", 0.127], ["2022-11-01", 0.127], ["2022-11-12", 0.127], ["2022-11-25", 0.127], ["2022-11-25", 0.127], ["2022-11-26", 0.13], ["2022-12-02", 0.126], ["2022-12-06", 0.126], ["2022-12-23", 0.124], ["2022-12-25", 0.124], ["2022-12-31", 0.123]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11640/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Bolivia 8 2,379
Haiti 578 165,019
Nicaragua 30 175,060
Guatemala 656 187,355
El Salvador 390 276,787
Honduras 596 468,771
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Bolivia 7
Haiti 426
Nicaragua 5
Guatemala 205
El Salvador 195
Honduras 263
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Bolivia in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-06", 0.05], ["2022-07-06", 0.177], ["2022-07-06", 0.093], ["2022-07-07", 0.092], ["2022-07-07", 0.078], ["2022-07-07", 0.078], ["2022-07-08", 0.14], ["2022-07-09", 0.124], ["2022-07-10", 0.112], ["2022-07-10", 0.112], ["2022-07-10", 0.099], ["2022-07-10", 0.098], ["2022-07-11", 0.098], ["2022-07-11", 0.097], ["2022-07-11", 0.097], ["2022-07-11", 0.099], ["2022-07-11", 0.099], ["2022-07-11", 0.098], ["2022-07-11", 0.094], ["2022-07-11", 0.092], ["2022-07-11", 0.087], ["2022-07-12", 0.155], ["2022-07-12", 0.144], ["2022-07-12", 0.135], ["2022-07-13", 0.135], ["2022-07-13", 0.129], ["2022-07-13", 0.13], ["2022-07-15", 0.126], ["2022-07-19", 0.126], ["2022-07-20", 0.124], ["2022-07-20", 0.125], ["2022-07-20", 0.118], ["2022-07-27", 0.118], ["2022-08-03", 0.117], ["2022-08-04", 0.112], ["2022-08-04", 0.108], ["2022-08-05", 0.108], ["2022-08-13", 0.103], ["2022-08-16", 0.101], ["2022-08-29", 0.1], ["2022-08-31", 0.1], ["2022-09-11", 0.099], ["2022-09-19", 0.099], ["2022-10-01", 0.099], ["2022-10-01", 0.099], ["2022-10-04", 0.096], ["2022-10-05", 0.097], ["2022-10-13", 0.097], ["2022-10-16", 0.097], ["2022-10-16", 0.097], ["2022-10-17", 0.096], ["2022-10-25", 0.096], ["2022-10-25", 0.097], ["2022-10-26", 0.097], ["2022-11-01", 0.097], ["2022-11-10", 0.096], ["2022-11-12", 0.096], ["2022-11-25", 0.096], ["2022-11-25", 0.104], ["2022-11-26", 0.104], ["2022-11-30", 0.101], ["2022-12-02", 0.101], ["2022-12-06", 0.098], ["2022-12-15", 0.097], ["2022-12-16", 0.098], ["2022-12-23", 0.098], ["2022-12-23", 0.097], ["2022-12-31", 0.095]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11642/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Bolivia 8 2,379
Haiti 578 165,019
Nicaragua 30 175,060
Guatemala 656 187,355
El Salvador 390 276,787
Honduras 596 468,771
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Bolivia 7
Haiti 426
Nicaragua 5
Guatemala 205
El Salvador 195
Honduras 263
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Nicaragua in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-06", 0.07], ["2022-07-06", 0.115], ["2022-07-06", 0.29], ["2022-07-06", 0.29], ["2022-07-07", 0.262], ["2022-07-07", 0.277], ["2022-07-07", 0.236], ["2022-07-07", 0.273], ["2022-07-08", 0.273], ["2022-07-09", 0.247], ["2022-07-09", 0.247], ["2022-07-10", 0.22], ["2022-07-10", 0.217], ["2022-07-10", 0.2], ["2022-07-10", 0.196], ["2022-07-11", 0.185], ["2022-07-11", 0.185], ["2022-07-11", 0.184], ["2022-07-11", 0.176], ["2022-07-11", 0.176], ["2022-07-11", 0.166], ["2022-07-11", 0.167], ["2022-07-11", 0.165], ["2022-07-11", 0.165], ["2022-07-11", 0.162], ["2022-07-11", 0.161], ["2022-07-12", 0.161], ["2022-07-12", 0.223], ["2022-07-12", 0.207], ["2022-07-13", 0.185], ["2022-07-13", 0.185], ["2022-07-13", 0.182], ["2022-07-15", 0.172], ["2022-07-19", 0.168], ["2022-07-20", 0.161], ["2022-07-20", 0.161], ["2022-07-20", 0.154], ["2022-07-27", 0.159], ["2022-08-03", 0.159], ["2022-08-04", 0.151], ["2022-08-04", 0.151], ["2022-08-05", 0.144], ["2022-08-05", 0.144], ["2022-08-13", 0.138], ["2022-08-16", 0.116], ["2022-08-18", 0.116], ["2022-08-29", 0.114], ["2022-08-31", 0.109], ["2022-09-11", 0.109], ["2022-09-11", 0.108], ["2022-10-01", 0.108], ["2022-10-02", 0.104], ["2022-10-04", 0.1], ["2022-10-13", 0.1], ["2022-10-16", 0.099], ["2022-10-16", 0.1], ["2022-10-17", 0.097], ["2022-10-25", 0.101], ["2022-11-01", 0.097], ["2022-11-10", 0.097], ["2022-11-10", 0.096], ["2022-11-10", 0.097], ["2022-11-12", 0.096], ["2022-11-25", 0.096], ["2022-11-25", 0.103], ["2022-11-25", 0.103], ["2022-11-26", 0.1], ["2022-12-02", 0.097], ["2022-12-02", 0.096], ["2022-12-06", 0.096], ["2022-12-17", 0.094], ["2022-12-23", 0.09], ["2022-12-27", 0.09], ["2022-12-31", 0.087]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11643/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Bolivia 8 2,379
Haiti 578 165,019
Nicaragua 30 175,060
Guatemala 656 187,355
El Salvador 390 276,787
Honduras 596 468,771
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Bolivia 7
Haiti 426
Nicaragua 5
Guatemala 205
El Salvador 195
Honduras 263
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Guatemala in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-06", 0.1], ["2022-07-06", 0.13], ["2022-07-07", 0.198], ["2022-07-07", 0.176], ["2022-07-07", 0.176], ["2022-07-08", 0.213], ["2022-07-10", 0.213], ["2022-07-10", 0.208], ["2022-07-10", 0.192], ["2022-07-10", 0.192], ["2022-07-10", 0.189], ["2022-07-10", 0.179], ["2022-07-11", 0.179], ["2022-07-11", 0.229], ["2022-07-11", 0.232], ["2022-07-11", 0.232], ["2022-07-11", 0.169], ["2022-07-11", 0.169], ["2022-07-11", 0.161], ["2022-07-11", 0.161], ["2022-07-11", 0.151], ["2022-07-11", 0.151], ["2022-07-11", 0.15], ["2022-07-11", 0.149], ["2022-07-12", 0.149], ["2022-07-12", 0.19], ["2022-07-12", 0.18], ["2022-07-13", 0.171], ["2022-07-13", 0.171], ["2022-07-14", 0.169], ["2022-07-15", 0.169], ["2022-07-15", 0.159], ["2022-07-19", 0.159], ["2022-07-20", 0.159], ["2022-07-20", 0.159], ["2022-08-03", 0.147], ["2022-08-04", 0.14], ["2022-08-04", 0.135], ["2022-08-13", 0.132], ["2022-08-16", 0.12], ["2022-08-18", 0.12], ["2022-08-29", 0.119], ["2022-08-29", 0.119], ["2022-08-31", 0.12], ["2022-09-02", 0.121], ["2022-09-11", 0.12], ["2022-10-01", 0.115], ["2022-10-04", 0.115], ["2022-10-13", 0.115], ["2022-10-16", 0.115], ["2022-10-16", 0.115], ["2022-10-16", 0.115], ["2022-10-17", 0.116], ["2022-10-18", 0.118], ["2022-10-25", 0.118], ["2022-10-26", 0.118], ["2022-11-01", 0.118], ["2022-11-05", 0.118], ["2022-11-10", 0.118], ["2022-11-10", 0.118], ["2022-11-11", 0.118], ["2022-11-12", 0.118], ["2022-11-24", 0.12], ["2022-11-25", 0.12], ["2022-11-25", 0.12], ["2022-11-25", 0.127], ["2022-11-26", 0.128], ["2022-11-26", 0.123], ["2022-12-02", 0.123], ["2022-12-06", 0.12], ["2022-12-10", 0.122], ["2022-12-16", 0.121], ["2022-12-16", 0.121], ["2022-12-17", 0.12], ["2022-12-23", 0.115], ["2022-12-23", 0.115], ["2022-12-31", 0.111]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11644/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Bolivia 8 2,379
Haiti 578 165,019
Nicaragua 30 175,060
Guatemala 656 187,355
El Salvador 390 276,787
Honduras 596 468,771
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Bolivia 7
Haiti 426
Nicaragua 5
Guatemala 205
El Salvador 195
Honduras 263
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in El Salvador in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-06", 0.1], ["2022-07-06", 0.13], ["2022-07-07", 0.303], ["2022-07-07", 0.302], ["2022-07-07", 0.26], ["2022-07-07", 0.293], ["2022-07-08", 0.259], ["2022-07-08", 0.273], ["2022-07-09", 0.263], ["2022-07-09", 0.24], ["2022-07-10", 0.232], ["2022-07-10", 0.229], ["2022-07-10", 0.229], ["2022-07-10", 0.226], ["2022-07-10", 0.209], ["2022-07-11", 0.208], ["2022-07-11", 0.2], ["2022-07-11", 0.198], ["2022-07-11", 0.198], ["2022-07-11", 0.197], ["2022-07-11", 0.183], ["2022-07-11", 0.183], ["2022-07-11", 0.179], ["2022-07-11", 0.177], ["2022-07-11", 0.175], ["2022-07-11", 0.175], ["2022-07-12", 0.227], ["2022-07-12", 0.212], ["2022-07-12", 0.199], ["2022-07-13", 0.189], ["2022-07-13", 0.189], ["2022-07-15", 0.189], ["2022-07-15", 0.178], ["2022-07-19", 0.172], ["2022-07-20", 0.172], ["2022-07-20", 0.162], ["2022-07-27", 0.162], ["2022-08-03", 0.159], ["2022-08-04", 0.152], ["2022-08-04", 0.146], ["2022-08-05", 0.146], ["2022-08-13", 0.143], ["2022-08-16", 0.143], ["2022-08-18", 0.118], ["2022-08-29", 0.116], ["2022-08-29", 0.118], ["2022-08-31", 0.118], ["2022-09-03", 0.119], ["2022-09-11", 0.119], ["2022-10-01", 0.118], ["2022-10-04", 0.115], ["2022-10-05", 0.111], ["2022-10-05", 0.11], ["2022-10-13", 0.109], ["2022-10-16", 0.108], ["2022-10-17", 0.108], ["2022-10-25", 0.107], ["2022-10-25", 0.107], ["2022-11-01", 0.108], ["2022-11-08", 0.108], ["2022-11-10", 0.107], ["2022-11-12", 0.107], ["2022-11-13", 0.108], ["2022-11-25", 0.108], ["2022-11-25", 0.108], ["2022-11-26", 0.113], ["2022-12-02", 0.106], ["2022-12-06", 0.107], ["2022-12-16", 0.107], ["2022-12-16", 0.105], ["2022-12-17", 0.105], ["2022-12-22", 0.1], ["2022-12-23", 0.1], ["2022-12-30", 0.098], ["2022-12-31", 0.098], ["2022-12-31", 0.095]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11645/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Bolivia 8 2,379
Haiti 578 165,019
Nicaragua 30 175,060
Guatemala 656 187,355
El Salvador 390 276,787
Honduras 596 468,771
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Bolivia 7
Haiti 426
Nicaragua 5
Guatemala 205
El Salvador 195
Honduras 263
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Honduras in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.6], ["2022-07-05", 0.6], ["2022-07-06", 0.6], ["2022-07-08", 0.55], ["2022-07-09", 0.53], ["2022-07-10", 0.474], ["2022-07-11", 0.437], ["2022-07-12", 0.428], ["2022-07-13", 0.426], ["2022-07-14", 0.438], ["2022-07-15", 0.438], ["2022-07-15", 0.386], ["2022-07-16", 0.416], ["2022-07-16", 0.416], ["2022-07-20", 0.389], ["2022-07-22", 0.376], ["2022-07-22", 0.38], ["2022-07-23", 0.361], ["2022-07-24", 0.341], ["2022-07-27", 0.341], ["2022-07-31", 0.341], ["2022-07-31", 0.38], ["2022-08-01", 0.377], ["2022-08-01", 0.366], ["2022-08-02", 0.366], ["2022-08-02", 0.358], ["2022-08-03", 0.36], ["2022-08-05", 0.36], ["2022-08-16", 0.36], ["2022-08-16", 0.36], ["2022-08-17", 0.405], ["2022-08-18", 0.408], ["2022-08-18", 0.412], ["2022-08-21", 0.412], ["2022-08-21", 0.412], ["2022-08-31", 0.412], ["2022-08-31", 0.42], ["2022-09-11", 0.424], ["2022-09-12", 0.428], ["2022-09-12", 0.415], ["2022-09-15", 0.411], ["2022-09-19", 0.415], ["2022-09-21", 0.415], ["2022-09-21", 0.393], ["2022-09-26", 0.398], ["2022-09-27", 0.399], ["2022-09-27", 0.399], ["2022-09-27", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.399], ["2022-10-10", 0.397], ["2022-10-10", 0.393], ["2022-10-11", 0.393], ["2022-10-12", 0.399], ["2022-10-12", 0.403], ["2022-10-13", 0.427], ["2022-10-14", 0.43], ["2022-10-15", 0.433], ["2022-10-17", 0.438], ["2022-10-19", 0.434], ["2022-10-20", 0.436], ["2022-10-20", 0.44], ["2022-10-23", 0.439], ["2022-10-24", 0.44], ["2022-10-25", 0.44], ["2022-10-31", 0.44], ["2022-10-31", 0.447], ["2022-11-01", 0.46], ["2022-11-02", 0.513], ["2022-11-02", 0.519], ["2022-11-02", 0.532], ["2022-11-03", 0.587], ["2022-11-03", 0.614], ["2022-11-03", 0.614], ["2022-11-04", 0.62], ["2022-11-04", 0.646], ["2022-11-04", 0.654], ["2022-11-05", 0.681], ["2022-11-12", 0.681], ["2022-11-13", 0.681], ["2022-11-18", 0.697], ["2022-11-21", 0.705], ["2022-11-22", 0.705], ["2022-11-23", 0.705], ["2022-11-24", 0.718], ["2022-11-25", 0.718], ["2022-11-26", 0.725], ["2022-11-28", 0.726], ["2022-11-28", 0.74], ["2022-12-04", 0.746], ["2022-12-05", 0.746], ["2022-12-08", 0.745], ["2022-12-08", 0.747], ["2022-12-09", 0.76], ["2022-12-09", 0.76], ["2022-12-11", 0.778], ["2022-12-19", 0.784], ["2022-12-22", 0.784], ["2022-12-22", 0.797], ["2022-12-23", 0.811], ["2022-12-26", 0.811]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11655/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Likud have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.5], ["2022-07-06", 0.5], ["2022-07-08", 0.475], ["2022-07-08", 0.475], ["2022-07-09", 0.44], ["2022-07-10", 0.424], ["2022-07-11", 0.445], ["2022-07-12", 0.428], ["2022-07-13", 0.428], ["2022-07-14", 0.429], ["2022-07-15", 0.429], ["2022-07-15", 0.392], ["2022-07-16", 0.392], ["2022-07-16", 0.424], ["2022-07-20", 0.399], ["2022-07-22", 0.399], ["2022-07-22", 0.386], ["2022-07-22", 0.378], ["2022-07-23", 0.369], ["2022-07-24", 0.369], ["2022-07-27", 0.372], ["2022-07-31", 0.372], ["2022-08-01", 0.367], ["2022-08-01", 0.367], ["2022-08-01", 0.351], ["2022-08-02", 0.348], ["2022-08-02", 0.348], ["2022-08-02", 0.35], ["2022-08-02", 0.355], ["2022-08-03", 0.352], ["2022-08-05", 0.352], ["2022-08-16", 0.329], ["2022-08-16", 0.32], ["2022-08-18", 0.324], ["2022-08-31", 0.324], ["2022-08-31", 0.328], ["2022-09-12", 0.33], ["2022-09-12", 0.335], ["2022-09-13", 0.338], ["2022-09-15", 0.342], ["2022-09-26", 0.342], ["2022-09-27", 0.349], ["2022-09-27", 0.347], ["2022-10-10", 0.354], ["2022-10-10", 0.358], ["2022-10-11", 0.365], ["2022-10-11", 0.367], ["2022-10-12", 0.367], ["2022-10-12", 0.366], ["2022-10-12", 0.371], ["2022-10-14", 0.376], ["2022-10-15", 0.376], ["2022-10-17", 0.37], ["2022-10-20", 0.373], ["2022-10-20", 0.377], ["2022-10-20", 0.382], ["2022-10-21", 0.381], ["2022-10-22", 0.381], ["2022-10-23", 0.375], ["2022-10-23", 0.374], ["2022-10-25", 0.374], ["2022-10-26", 0.374], ["2022-10-27", 0.371], ["2022-10-31", 0.363], ["2022-10-31", 0.364], ["2022-10-31", 0.365], ["2022-11-01", 0.365], ["2022-11-01", 0.355], ["2022-11-01", 0.339], ["2022-11-02", 0.34], ["2022-11-02", 0.335], ["2022-11-02", 0.329], ["2022-11-03", 0.323], ["2022-11-03", 0.323], ["2022-11-03", 0.32], ["2022-11-03", 0.312], ["2022-11-04", 0.308], ["2022-11-04", 0.294], ["2022-11-04", 0.294], ["2022-11-05", 0.262], ["2022-11-06", 0.251], ["2022-11-07", 0.25], ["2022-11-08", 0.25], ["2022-11-12", 0.248], ["2022-11-15", 0.248], ["2022-11-18", 0.247], ["2022-11-21", 0.232], ["2022-11-22", 0.222], ["2022-11-23", 0.222], ["2022-11-24", 0.206], ["2022-11-25", 0.206], ["2022-11-26", 0.198], ["2022-11-28", 0.198], ["2022-11-28", 0.198], ["2022-12-04", 0.178], ["2022-12-09", 0.17], ["2022-12-09", 0.17], ["2022-12-11", 0.159], ["2022-12-19", 0.154], ["2022-12-22", 0.142], ["2022-12-22", 0.142]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11656/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Yesh Atid have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.5], ["2022-07-06", 0.5], ["2022-07-08", 0.378], ["2022-07-08", 0.378], ["2022-07-09", 0.21], ["2022-07-10", 0.132], ["2022-07-11", 0.112], ["2022-07-12", 0.112], ["2022-07-13", 0.112], ["2022-07-14", 0.13], ["2022-07-14", 0.132], ["2022-07-15", 0.124], ["2022-07-16", 0.1], ["2022-07-20", 0.1], ["2022-07-22", 0.099], ["2022-07-22", 0.1], ["2022-07-27", 0.1], ["2022-07-29", 0.09], ["2022-07-29", 0.082], ["2022-07-29", 0.082], ["2022-07-30", 0.08], ["2022-07-31", 0.078], ["2022-08-01", 0.075], ["2022-08-02", 0.069], ["2022-08-02", 0.07], ["2022-08-05", 0.081], ["2022-08-16", 0.081], ["2022-08-18", 0.078], ["2022-08-31", 0.078], ["2022-09-11", 0.076], ["2022-09-12", 0.074], ["2022-09-26", 0.074], ["2022-10-10", 0.067], ["2022-10-12", 0.067], ["2022-10-12", 0.061], ["2022-10-13", 0.061], ["2022-10-15", 0.061], ["2022-10-16", 0.058], ["2022-10-17", 0.058], ["2022-10-20", 0.058], ["2022-10-20", 0.055], ["2022-10-25", 0.055], ["2022-11-01", 0.055], ["2022-11-02", 0.055], ["2022-11-02", 0.053], ["2022-11-02", 0.05], ["2022-11-12", 0.05], ["2022-11-25", 0.05], ["2022-11-26", 0.05], ["2022-12-19", 0.048], ["2022-12-22", 0.045], ["2022-12-27", 0.045]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11657/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Shas have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.6], ["2022-07-05", 0.6], ["2022-07-06", 0.6], ["2022-07-08", 0.462], ["2022-07-09", 0.274], ["2022-07-10", 0.188], ["2022-07-11", 0.188], ["2022-07-11", 0.225], ["2022-07-12", 0.225], ["2022-07-13", 0.225], ["2022-07-14", 0.251], ["2022-07-14", 0.263], ["2022-07-15", 0.242], ["2022-07-15", 0.254], ["2022-07-15", 0.254], ["2022-07-16", 0.26], ["2022-07-16", 0.265], ["2022-07-16", 0.236], ["2022-07-20", 0.216], ["2022-07-20", 0.28], ["2022-07-21", 0.28], ["2022-07-21", 0.288], ["2022-07-22", 0.288], ["2022-07-22", 0.306], ["2022-07-23", 0.328], ["2022-07-24", 0.328], ["2022-07-27", 0.324], ["2022-07-29", 0.299], ["2022-07-31", 0.295], ["2022-08-01", 0.32], ["2022-08-01", 0.311], ["2022-08-02", 0.303], ["2022-08-02", 0.303], ["2022-08-03", 0.284], ["2022-08-05", 0.284], ["2022-08-16", 0.288], ["2022-08-17", 0.332], ["2022-08-18", 0.332], ["2022-08-31", 0.332], ["2022-08-31", 0.324], ["2022-09-11", 0.324], ["2022-09-12", 0.329], ["2022-09-12", 0.32], ["2022-09-19", 0.32], ["2022-09-20", 0.316], ["2022-09-21", 0.337], ["2022-09-26", 0.344], ["2022-09-26", 0.344], ["2022-09-27", 0.357], ["2022-09-27", 0.355], ["2022-10-10", 0.361], ["2022-10-10", 0.361], ["2022-10-11", 0.355], ["2022-10-11", 0.342], ["2022-10-12", 0.338], ["2022-10-12", 0.301], ["2022-10-14", 0.301], ["2022-10-14", 0.296], ["2022-10-15", 0.278], ["2022-10-16", 0.276], ["2022-10-17", 0.271], ["2022-10-17", 0.269], ["2022-10-18", 0.267], ["2022-10-20", 0.269], ["2022-10-20", 0.265], ["2022-10-23", 0.259], ["2022-10-23", 0.26], ["2022-10-25", 0.26], ["2022-10-25", 0.262], ["2022-10-31", 0.259], ["2022-10-31", 0.256], ["2022-11-01", 0.252], ["2022-11-01", 0.253], ["2022-11-01", 0.225], ["2022-11-02", 0.225], ["2022-11-02", 0.221], ["2022-11-03", 0.217], ["2022-11-03", 0.215], ["2022-11-04", 0.205], ["2022-11-04", 0.197], ["2022-11-04", 0.189], ["2022-11-05", 0.183], ["2022-11-12", 0.177], ["2022-11-18", 0.171], ["2022-11-21", 0.171], ["2022-11-23", 0.164], ["2022-11-24", 0.155], ["2022-11-25", 0.154], ["2022-11-26", 0.154], ["2022-11-27", 0.147], ["2022-11-28", 0.147], ["2022-11-28", 0.128], ["2022-12-04", 0.128], ["2022-12-08", 0.124], ["2022-12-09", 0.124], ["2022-12-09", 0.123], ["2022-12-11", 0.117], ["2022-12-19", 0.112], ["2022-12-22", 0.112], ["2022-12-22", 0.104], ["2022-12-26", 0.104]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11658/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Blue and White have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.6], ["2022-07-06", 0.6], ["2022-07-08", 0.452], ["2022-07-08", 0.364], ["2022-07-09", 0.246], ["2022-07-10", 0.152], ["2022-07-11", 0.152], ["2022-07-11", 0.152], ["2022-07-12", 0.172], ["2022-07-13", 0.209], ["2022-07-14", 0.191], ["2022-07-16", 0.193], ["2022-07-16", 0.191], ["2022-07-16", 0.191], ["2022-07-20", 0.179], ["2022-07-20", 0.175], ["2022-07-22", 0.175], ["2022-07-22", 0.175], ["2022-07-27", 0.175], ["2022-07-29", 0.181], ["2022-07-29", 0.167], ["2022-07-31", 0.152], ["2022-07-31", 0.15], ["2022-07-31", 0.15], ["2022-07-31", 0.139], ["2022-08-01", 0.144], ["2022-08-01", 0.144], ["2022-08-01", 0.144], ["2022-08-01", 0.139], ["2022-08-01", 0.139], ["2022-08-01", 0.135], ["2022-08-02", 0.135], ["2022-08-02", 0.131], ["2022-08-02", 0.132], ["2022-08-02", 0.122], ["2022-08-03", 0.116], ["2022-08-05", 0.124], ["2022-08-16", 0.119], ["2022-08-18", 0.119], ["2022-08-31", 0.119], ["2022-09-11", 0.114], ["2022-09-12", 0.114], ["2022-09-12", 0.115], ["2022-09-12", 0.115], ["2022-09-26", 0.102], ["2022-09-27", 0.102], ["2022-09-27", 0.101], ["2022-09-27", 0.101], ["2022-10-10", 0.1], ["2022-10-12", 0.092], ["2022-10-12", 0.092], ["2022-10-14", 0.088], ["2022-10-14", 0.086], ["2022-10-15", 0.082], ["2022-10-16", 0.082], ["2022-10-16", 0.082], ["2022-10-19", 0.082], ["2022-10-20", 0.076], ["2022-10-20", 0.076], ["2022-10-23", 0.065], ["2022-10-23", 0.065], ["2022-10-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-01", 0.065], ["2022-11-01", 0.062], ["2022-11-02", 0.06], ["2022-11-02", 0.06], ["2022-11-02", 0.056], ["2022-11-03", 0.056], ["2022-11-12", 0.056], ["2022-11-25", 0.056], ["2022-11-26", 0.054], ["2022-12-09", 0.062], ["2022-12-11", 0.061], ["2022-12-19", 0.06], ["2022-12-22", 0.06], ["2022-12-22", 0.058], ["2022-12-26", 0.058], ["2022-12-27", 0.056]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11659/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Labor have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.5], ["2022-07-05", 0.5], ["2022-07-06", 0.5], ["2022-07-08", 0.378], ["2022-07-08", 0.378], ["2022-07-09", 0.206], ["2022-07-10", 0.206], ["2022-07-11", 0.108], ["2022-07-12", 0.108], ["2022-07-13", 0.156], ["2022-07-14", 0.141], ["2022-07-14", 0.145], ["2022-07-15", 0.136], ["2022-07-16", 0.136], ["2022-07-16", 0.136], ["2022-07-16", 0.13], ["2022-07-17", 0.117], ["2022-07-20", 0.117], ["2022-07-22", 0.118], ["2022-07-22", 0.117], ["2022-07-27", 0.117], ["2022-07-29", 0.117], ["2022-07-29", 0.103], ["2022-07-29", 0.103], ["2022-07-31", 0.095], ["2022-07-31", 0.095], ["2022-08-01", 0.085], ["2022-08-02", 0.085], ["2022-08-05", 0.072], ["2022-08-16", 0.069], ["2022-08-18", 0.069], ["2022-08-31", 0.069], ["2022-09-11", 0.066], ["2022-09-12", 0.066], ["2022-09-26", 0.063], ["2022-10-10", 0.059], ["2022-10-12", 0.054], ["2022-10-12", 0.054], ["2022-10-15", 0.05], ["2022-10-20", 0.048], ["2022-10-22", 0.048], ["2022-10-23", 0.036], ["2022-10-25", 0.036], ["2022-10-26", 0.036], ["2022-11-01", 0.036], ["2022-11-02", 0.036], ["2022-11-02", 0.033], ["2022-11-02", 0.033], ["2022-11-12", 0.033], ["2022-11-25", 0.033], ["2022-11-26", 0.033], ["2022-12-19", 0.031], ["2022-12-22", 0.03], ["2022-12-27", 0.03]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11660/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will UTJ have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.55], ["2022-07-06", 0.55], ["2022-07-08", 0.418], ["2022-07-08", 0.336], ["2022-07-09", 0.23], ["2022-07-10", 0.144], ["2022-07-11", 0.144], ["2022-07-11", 0.145], ["2022-07-12", 0.162], ["2022-07-13", 0.197], ["2022-07-14", 0.197], ["2022-07-15", 0.18], ["2022-07-16", 0.181], ["2022-07-16", 0.18], ["2022-07-16", 0.174], ["2022-07-16", 0.174], ["2022-07-16", 0.164], ["2022-07-20", 0.158], ["2022-07-22", 0.158], ["2022-07-22", 0.158], ["2022-07-27", 0.158], ["2022-07-29", 0.158], ["2022-07-31", 0.129], ["2022-07-31", 0.128], ["2022-07-31", 0.121], ["2022-07-31", 0.119], ["2022-08-01", 0.119], ["2022-08-01", 0.121], ["2022-08-01", 0.119], ["2022-08-01", 0.121], ["2022-08-01", 0.114], ["2022-08-02", 0.114], ["2022-08-02", 0.113], ["2022-08-03", 0.102], ["2022-08-05", 0.105], ["2022-08-16", 0.105], ["2022-08-16", 0.103], ["2022-08-18", 0.103], ["2022-08-31", 0.103], ["2022-09-11", 0.103], ["2022-09-12", 0.101], ["2022-09-26", 0.095], ["2022-09-27", 0.094], ["2022-09-27", 0.094], ["2022-09-27", 0.094], ["2022-10-10", 0.093], ["2022-10-12", 0.086], ["2022-10-12", 0.082], ["2022-10-12", 0.082], ["2022-10-12", 0.088], ["2022-10-14", 0.088], ["2022-10-15", 0.083], ["2022-10-16", 0.084], ["2022-10-17", 0.084], ["2022-10-20", 0.084], ["2022-10-20", 0.081], ["2022-10-23", 0.081], ["2022-10-23", 0.075], ["2022-10-25", 0.075], ["2022-11-01", 0.075], ["2022-11-02", 0.075], ["2022-11-02", 0.073], ["2022-11-02", 0.07], ["2022-11-03", 0.07], ["2022-11-03", 0.07], ["2022-11-03", 0.07], ["2022-11-04", 0.07], ["2022-11-04", 0.068], ["2022-11-05", 0.067], ["2022-11-12", 0.067], ["2022-11-25", 0.067], ["2022-11-26", 0.065], ["2022-11-26", 0.066], ["2022-12-04", 0.064], ["2022-12-08", 0.063], ["2022-12-09", 0.07], ["2022-12-11", 0.07], ["2022-12-19", 0.068], ["2022-12-22", 0.068], ["2022-12-22", 0.066], ["2022-12-26", 0.065], ["2022-12-27", 0.063]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11661/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Yisrael Beiteinu have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.55], ["2022-07-05", 0.55], ["2022-07-06", 0.55], ["2022-07-08", 0.415], ["2022-07-08", 0.415], ["2022-07-09", 0.334], ["2022-07-10", 0.14], ["2022-07-11", 0.14], ["2022-07-12", 0.118], ["2022-07-13", 0.118], ["2022-07-14", 0.153], ["2022-07-14", 0.14], ["2022-07-15", 0.136], ["2022-07-16", 0.137], ["2022-07-16", 0.136], ["2022-07-16", 0.133], ["2022-07-20", 0.133], ["2022-07-22", 0.135], ["2022-07-22", 0.133], ["2022-07-27", 0.133], ["2022-07-29", 0.12], ["2022-07-29", 0.109], ["2022-07-29", 0.105], ["2022-07-30", 0.105], ["2022-07-31", 0.096], ["2022-07-31", 0.094], ["2022-08-01", 0.087], ["2022-08-02", 0.081], ["2022-08-05", 0.062], ["2022-08-16", 0.059], ["2022-08-18", 0.059], ["2022-08-31", 0.059], ["2022-09-11", 0.059], ["2022-09-12", 0.052], ["2022-09-26", 0.052], ["2022-10-10", 0.05], ["2022-10-12", 0.047], ["2022-10-12", 0.044], ["2022-10-12", 0.042], ["2022-10-12", 0.072], ["2022-10-15", 0.072], ["2022-10-16", 0.069], ["2022-10-20", 0.067], ["2022-10-20", 0.067], ["2022-10-23", 0.065], ["2022-10-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-01", 0.065], ["2022-11-02", 0.062], ["2022-11-02", 0.06], ["2022-11-02", 0.058], ["2022-11-03", 0.058], ["2022-11-04", 0.058], ["2022-11-12", 0.058], ["2022-11-25", 0.058], ["2022-11-26", 0.057], ["2022-12-19", 0.055], ["2022-12-22", 0.053], ["2022-12-27", 0.052]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11662/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Religious Zionist have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.4], ["2022-07-06", 0.4], ["2022-07-08", 0.4], ["2022-07-08", 0.305], ["2022-07-08", 0.246], ["2022-07-09", 0.172], ["2022-07-10", 0.172], ["2022-07-11", 0.16], ["2022-07-11", 0.173], ["2022-07-11", 0.173], ["2022-07-12", 0.153], ["2022-07-13", 0.183], ["2022-07-14", 0.231], ["2022-07-14", 0.267], ["2022-07-15", 0.267], ["2022-07-15", 0.236], ["2022-07-16", 0.271], ["2022-07-16", 0.272], ["2022-07-16", 0.303], ["2022-07-16", 0.303], ["2022-07-20", 0.279], ["2022-07-22", 0.279], ["2022-07-22", 0.278], ["2022-07-22", 0.279], ["2022-07-23", 0.256], ["2022-07-24", 0.235], ["2022-07-27", 0.235], ["2022-07-29", 0.22], ["2022-07-31", 0.22], ["2022-08-01", 0.238], ["2022-08-01", 0.226], ["2022-08-01", 0.238], ["2022-08-01", 0.229], ["2022-08-01", 0.218], ["2022-08-02", 0.218], ["2022-08-02", 0.219], ["2022-08-02", 0.219], ["2022-08-02", 0.218], ["2022-08-02", 0.205], ["2022-08-02", 0.204], ["2022-08-02", 0.202], ["2022-08-03", 0.193], ["2022-08-05", 0.193], ["2022-08-16", 0.208], ["2022-08-16", 0.192], ["2022-08-16", 0.184], ["2022-08-18", 0.184], ["2022-08-31", 0.184], ["2022-09-12", 0.184], ["2022-09-12", 0.171], ["2022-09-26", 0.171], ["2022-09-26", 0.161], ["2022-09-26", 0.157], ["2022-09-27", 0.157], ["2022-09-27", 0.154], ["2022-09-27", 0.149], ["2022-09-28", 0.147], ["2022-10-10", 0.147], ["2022-10-12", 0.135], ["2022-10-12", 0.128], ["2022-10-12", 0.122], ["2022-10-14", 0.122], ["2022-10-14", 0.12], ["2022-10-14", 0.119], ["2022-10-15", 0.119], ["2022-10-16", 0.113], ["2022-10-17", 0.112], ["2022-10-20", 0.112], ["2022-10-20", 0.11], ["2022-10-20", 0.108], ["2022-10-21", 0.108], ["2022-10-23", 0.108], ["2022-10-23", 0.105], ["2022-10-25", 0.096], ["2022-11-01", 0.096], ["2022-11-01", 0.095], ["2022-11-02", 0.095], ["2022-11-02", 0.091], ["2022-11-02", 0.091], ["2022-11-03", 0.087], ["2022-11-04", 0.087], ["2022-11-05", 0.085], ["2022-11-12", 0.085], ["2022-11-24", 0.085], ["2022-11-24", 0.083], ["2022-11-25", 0.083], ["2022-11-25", 0.083], ["2022-11-25", 0.082], ["2022-11-26", 0.082], ["2022-12-08", 0.078], ["2022-12-09", 0.063], ["2022-12-11", 0.063], ["2022-12-19", 0.06], ["2022-12-22", 0.058], ["2022-12-27", 0.056]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11663/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Zionist Spirit have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.55], ["2022-07-05", 0.55], ["2022-07-06", 0.55], ["2022-07-08", 0.415], ["2022-07-08", 0.334], ["2022-07-09", 0.226], ["2022-07-10", 0.14], ["2022-07-11", 0.118], ["2022-07-12", 0.118], ["2022-07-13", 0.156], ["2022-07-14", 0.142], ["2022-07-14", 0.142], ["2022-07-15", 0.138], ["2022-07-16", 0.14], ["2022-07-16", 0.138], ["2022-07-20", 0.138], ["2022-07-22", 0.14], ["2022-07-22", 0.138], ["2022-07-27", 0.138], ["2022-07-29", 0.124], ["2022-07-29", 0.113], ["2022-07-29", 0.109], ["2022-07-30", 0.109], ["2022-07-31", 0.1], ["2022-07-31", 0.1], ["2022-08-01", 0.093], ["2022-08-02", 0.081], ["2022-08-05", 0.092], ["2022-08-16", 0.091], ["2022-08-16", 0.089], ["2022-08-18", 0.089], ["2022-08-31", 0.089], ["2022-09-11", 0.083], ["2022-09-12", 0.078], ["2022-09-26", 0.074], ["2022-10-10", 0.07], ["2022-10-12", 0.067], ["2022-10-12", 0.064], ["2022-10-12", 0.061], ["2022-10-15", 0.059], ["2022-10-19", 0.057], ["2022-10-20", 0.055], ["2022-10-20", 0.055], ["2022-10-23", 0.049], ["2022-10-23", 0.049], ["2022-10-25", 0.049], ["2022-11-01", 0.049], ["2022-11-02", 0.049], ["2022-11-02", 0.047], ["2022-11-02", 0.044], ["2022-11-12", 0.044], ["2022-11-25", 0.044], ["2022-11-26", 0.044], ["2022-12-19", 0.043], ["2022-12-22", 0.041]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11664/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Joint List have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.6], ["2022-07-05", 0.6], ["2022-07-06", 0.6], ["2022-07-08", 0.6], ["2022-07-08", 0.462], ["2022-07-08", 0.382], ["2022-07-09", 0.27], ["2022-07-10", 0.182], ["2022-07-11", 0.182], ["2022-07-11", 0.237], ["2022-07-11", 0.214], ["2022-07-12", 0.214], ["2022-07-13", 0.214], ["2022-07-14", 0.236], ["2022-07-14", 0.278], ["2022-07-15", 0.276], ["2022-07-15", 0.276], ["2022-07-15", 0.3], ["2022-07-16", 0.296], ["2022-07-16", 0.296], ["2022-07-16", 0.296], ["2022-07-16", 0.296], ["2022-07-16", 0.285], ["2022-07-16", 0.208], ["2022-07-20", 0.208], ["2022-07-22", 0.208], ["2022-07-22", 0.206], ["2022-07-27", 0.208], ["2022-07-29", 0.208], ["2022-07-31", 0.186], ["2022-07-31", 0.169], ["2022-07-31", 0.158], ["2022-07-31", 0.156], ["2022-07-31", 0.154], ["2022-08-01", 0.154], ["2022-08-01", 0.144], ["2022-08-02", 0.144], ["2022-08-02", 0.135], ["2022-08-03", 0.132], ["2022-08-05", 0.132], ["2022-08-16", 0.13], ["2022-08-16", 0.13], ["2022-08-18", 0.129], ["2022-08-31", 0.129], ["2022-09-12", 0.129], ["2022-09-12", 0.121], ["2022-09-26", 0.114], ["2022-09-26", 0.114], ["2022-09-27", 0.112], ["2022-09-27", 0.112], ["2022-10-10", 0.111], ["2022-10-12", 0.106], ["2022-10-12", 0.098], ["2022-10-14", 0.097], ["2022-10-15", 0.097], ["2022-10-16", 0.095], ["2022-10-17", 0.096], ["2022-10-19", 0.096], ["2022-10-20", 0.093], ["2022-10-23", 0.093], ["2022-10-24", 0.087], ["2022-10-25", 0.087], ["2022-11-01", 0.087], ["2022-11-02", 0.086], ["2022-11-02", 0.084], ["2022-11-02", 0.082], ["2022-11-03", 0.081], ["2022-11-04", 0.081], ["2022-11-12", 0.08], ["2022-11-24", 0.078], ["2022-11-24", 0.077], ["2022-11-25", 0.077], ["2022-11-25", 0.077], ["2022-11-26", 0.075], ["2022-12-08", 0.075], ["2022-12-09", 0.075], ["2022-12-11", 0.072], ["2022-12-19", 0.071], ["2022-12-22", 0.071], ["2022-12-22", 0.068]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11665/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will New Hope have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.4], ["2022-07-05", 0.4], ["2022-07-06", 0.4], ["2022-07-08", 0.303], ["2022-07-08", 0.244], ["2022-07-09", 0.166], ["2022-07-10", 0.104], ["2022-07-11", 0.09], ["2022-07-11", 0.092], ["2022-07-12", 0.092], ["2022-07-13", 0.136], ["2022-07-14", 0.136], ["2022-07-15", 0.115], ["2022-07-16", 0.116], ["2022-07-16", 0.115], ["2022-07-16", 0.105], ["2022-07-20", 0.106], ["2022-07-20", 0.107], ["2022-07-20", 0.107], ["2022-07-20", 0.107], ["2022-07-22", 0.112], ["2022-07-22", 0.112], ["2022-07-27", 0.111], ["2022-07-29", 0.136], ["2022-07-29", 0.111], ["2022-07-29", 0.111], ["2022-07-30", 0.108], ["2022-07-31", 0.105], ["2022-08-01", 0.092], ["2022-08-02", 0.092], ["2022-08-05", 0.097], ["2022-08-16", 0.095], ["2022-08-16", 0.094], ["2022-08-18", 0.094], ["2022-08-31", 0.071], ["2022-09-11", 0.067], ["2022-09-12", 0.067], ["2022-09-26", 0.063], ["2022-10-10", 0.06], ["2022-10-12", 0.054], ["2022-10-12", 0.052], ["2022-10-12", 0.05], ["2022-10-12", 0.048], ["2022-10-15", 0.046], ["2022-10-16", 0.046], ["2022-10-20", 0.047], ["2022-10-21", 0.045], ["2022-10-23", 0.034], ["2022-10-23", 0.033], ["2022-10-25", 0.033], ["2022-11-01", 0.033], ["2022-11-02", 0.033], ["2022-11-02", 0.031], ["2022-11-02", 0.031], ["2022-11-04", 0.03], ["2022-11-12", 0.03], ["2022-11-25", 0.03], ["2022-11-26", 0.03], ["2022-12-09", 0.03], ["2022-12-19", 0.028], ["2022-12-22", 0.027]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11666/ | On June 30, 2022, Israeli lawmakers voted to dissolve the government, and new elections for the Knesset are scheduled for November 1, 2022.
Israel's Knesset uses a closed-list proportional representation voting system. All 120 seats are up for election, and 61 seats are needed to form a majority government.
Four elections have been held in Israel from 2019 to 2021, as neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (of the Likud party) nor the primary opposition leader Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White alliance) were able to form a majority government. After the March 2021 elections, Naftali Bennett (of Yamina) and Yair Lapid (of Yesh Atid) formed a coalition in which they agreed to alternate holding the Prime Minister's office in separate 2-year terms. Their coalition dissolved early in June 2022. | Politics & Governance | The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2022 elections is a member of the respective party. All other parties will resolve as No.
After elections are held in the Knesset, the President of Israel gives a party leader a mandate to form a majority government. If that party leader succeeds in an investiture vote, they become the Prime Minister. This question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister successfully forms a majority government after the 2022 elections.
If there is a rotation agreement between 2 or more parties, this question will resolve for the party whose Prime Minister holds office first.
This question is not restricted to the current parties below; other parties may be added in the future.
If the 2022 elections do not produce a majority government, or if no elections are held before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as Ambiguous
Fine Print
Edit (August 1, 2022; casens): The option below formerly marked as "Yamina" is now the Zionist Sprit alliance. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Meretz have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-13 | 2022-07-04 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-04", 0.085], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-06", 0.119], ["2022-07-07", 0.119], ["2022-07-10", 0.114], ["2022-07-12", 0.111], ["2022-07-12", 0.109], ["2022-07-13", 0.106], ["2022-07-15", 0.103], ["2022-07-16", 0.102], ["2022-07-16", 0.091], ["2022-07-18", 0.088], ["2022-07-19", 0.086], ["2022-07-20", 0.085], ["2022-07-21", 0.084], ["2022-07-23", 0.073], ["2022-07-24", 0.105], ["2022-07-25", 0.105], ["2022-07-26", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.104], ["2022-07-28", 0.104], ["2022-07-29", 0.101], ["2022-07-30", 0.101], ["2022-08-02", 0.099], ["2022-08-02", 0.105], ["2022-08-03", 0.095], ["2022-08-04", 0.091], ["2022-08-05", 0.091], ["2022-08-05", 0.089], ["2022-08-06", 0.087], ["2022-08-10", 0.087], ["2022-08-11", 0.086], ["2022-08-12", 0.084], ["2022-08-15", 0.081], ["2022-08-15", 0.081], ["2022-08-17", 0.083], ["2022-08-18", 0.071], ["2022-08-19", 0.069], ["2022-08-21", 0.079], ["2022-08-21", 0.067], ["2022-08-22", 0.066], ["2022-08-24", 0.065], ["2022-08-25", 0.065], ["2022-08-28", 0.063], ["2022-08-28", 0.062], ["2022-08-29", 0.062], ["2022-08-30", 0.062], ["2022-09-01", 0.061], ["2022-09-01", 0.06], ["2022-09-03", 0.059], ["2022-09-03", 0.059], ["2022-09-05", 0.059], ["2022-09-06", 0.059], ["2022-09-08", 0.058], ["2022-09-08", 0.058], ["2022-09-12", 0.057], ["2022-09-13", 0.064], ["2022-09-15", 0.064], ["2022-09-16", 0.064], ["2022-09-17", 0.063], ["2022-09-18", 0.063], ["2022-09-21", 0.063], ["2022-09-22", 0.062], ["2022-09-23", 0.066], ["2022-09-27", 0.066], ["2022-09-27", 0.066], ["2022-10-01", 0.065], ["2022-10-04", 0.064], ["2022-10-12", 0.064], ["2022-10-13", 0.052], ["2022-10-14", 0.052], ["2022-10-15", 0.05], ["2022-10-16", 0.051], ["2022-10-16", 0.051], ["2022-10-18", 0.052], ["2022-10-19", 0.057], ["2022-10-19", 0.057], ["2022-10-20", 0.056], ["2022-10-21", 0.056], ["2022-10-22", 0.054], ["2022-10-23", 0.054], ["2022-10-23", 0.053], ["2022-10-25", 0.053], ["2022-10-26", 0.051], ["2022-10-28", 0.05], ["2022-10-29", 0.049], ["2022-10-30", 0.049], ["2022-10-31", 0.051], ["2022-11-01", 0.051], ["2022-11-02", 0.05], ["2022-11-03", 0.049], ["2022-11-04", 0.049], ["2022-11-05", 0.049], ["2022-11-06", 0.049], ["2022-11-07", 0.049], ["2022-11-08", 0.05], ["2022-11-09", 0.05], ["2022-11-10", 0.05], ["2022-11-11", 0.048], ["2022-11-12", 0.047], ["2022-11-13", 0.044]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11695/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
On elections scheduled for November 8, 2022, US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.
Democratic President Joe Biden said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021,
I just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it.
Republican Senator Rick Scott said to Fox Business on the same day,
We’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”
Generic congressional ballot data shows Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden has a -8 percentage point net approval rating as of December 2021.
FiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House, arguing this is a signal of good prospects for Republicans. | Politics & Governance | After the conclusion of the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), if one party has more than 50% of seats in that chamber of congress, that party will be considered to control that chamber.
For the Senate, if seats are tied exactly 50-50 between two parties, the Senate will be "controlled" by the party of the President.
Independents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members | true | 2023-01-03 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate and the Democratic Party control the House following the 2022 US midterm elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-07-04 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-04", 0.075], ["2022-07-05", 0.099], ["2022-07-06", 0.081], ["2022-07-10", 0.081], ["2022-07-12", 0.083], ["2022-07-13", 0.079], ["2022-07-15", 0.079], ["2022-07-16", 0.08], ["2022-07-16", 0.084], ["2022-07-18", 0.078], ["2022-07-19", 0.078], ["2022-07-23", 0.079], ["2022-07-24", 0.079], ["2022-07-25", 0.078], ["2022-07-27", 0.074], ["2022-07-28", 0.076], ["2022-07-30", 0.076], ["2022-08-02", 0.075], ["2022-08-03", 0.075], ["2022-08-04", 0.087], ["2022-08-05", 0.082], ["2022-08-06", 0.081], ["2022-08-07", 0.084], ["2022-08-10", 0.084], ["2022-08-10", 0.084], ["2022-08-11", 0.085], ["2022-08-12", 0.103], ["2022-08-15", 0.103], ["2022-08-16", 0.11], ["2022-08-17", 0.11], ["2022-08-18", 0.115], ["2022-08-19", 0.115], ["2022-08-21", 0.127], ["2022-08-22", 0.116], ["2022-08-24", 0.12], ["2022-08-25", 0.128], ["2022-08-26", 0.131], ["2022-08-28", 0.133], ["2022-08-29", 0.136], ["2022-08-31", 0.136], ["2022-09-02", 0.144], ["2022-09-03", 0.144], ["2022-09-05", 0.144], ["2022-09-06", 0.143], ["2022-09-07", 0.146], ["2022-09-08", 0.146], ["2022-09-12", 0.147], ["2022-09-14", 0.162], ["2022-09-15", 0.161], ["2022-09-16", 0.162], ["2022-09-17", 0.165], ["2022-09-18", 0.165], ["2022-09-20", 0.165], ["2022-09-21", 0.165], ["2022-09-22", 0.168], ["2022-09-23", 0.168], ["2022-09-24", 0.169], ["2022-09-25", 0.17], ["2022-09-27", 0.172], ["2022-09-27", 0.171], ["2022-09-29", 0.171], ["2022-10-01", 0.17], ["2022-10-03", 0.172], ["2022-10-04", 0.174], ["2022-10-07", 0.173], ["2022-10-07", 0.173], ["2022-10-12", 0.173], ["2022-10-14", 0.169], ["2022-10-14", 0.17], ["2022-10-16", 0.173], ["2022-10-17", 0.176], ["2022-10-18", 0.177], ["2022-10-19", 0.183], ["2022-10-20", 0.182], ["2022-10-21", 0.18], ["2022-10-23", 0.176], ["2022-10-24", 0.174], ["2022-10-25", 0.173], ["2022-10-26", 0.168], ["2022-10-27", 0.163], ["2022-10-28", 0.161], ["2022-10-30", 0.161], ["2022-10-31", 0.161], ["2022-11-01", 0.159], ["2022-11-02", 0.155], ["2022-11-03", 0.154], ["2022-11-04", 0.147], ["2022-11-06", 0.143], ["2022-11-07", 0.134], ["2022-11-08", 0.136], ["2022-11-09", 0.134], ["2022-11-10", 0.145], ["2022-11-12", 0.146], ["2022-11-13", 0.158], ["2022-11-15", 0.134], ["2022-11-16", 0.123], ["2022-11-18", 0.115], ["2022-11-18", 0.114], ["2022-11-21", 0.113], ["2022-11-22", 0.111], ["2022-11-23", 0.111]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11696/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
On elections scheduled for November 8, 2022, US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.
Democratic President Joe Biden said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021,
I just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it.
Republican Senator Rick Scott said to Fox Business on the same day,
We’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”
Generic congressional ballot data shows Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden has a -8 percentage point net approval rating as of December 2021.
FiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House, arguing this is a signal of good prospects for Republicans. | Politics & Governance | After the conclusion of the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), if one party has more than 50% of seats in that chamber of congress, that party will be considered to control that chamber.
For the Senate, if seats are tied exactly 50-50 between two parties, the Senate will be "controlled" by the party of the President.
Independents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members | true | 2023-01-03 | Will the Democratic Party control both the Senate and House following the 2022 US midterm elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-07-04 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-04", 0.3], ["2022-07-06", 0.348], ["2022-07-10", 0.355], ["2022-07-10", 0.356], ["2022-07-12", 0.356], ["2022-07-13", 0.359], ["2022-07-14", 0.358], ["2022-07-16", 0.358], ["2022-07-16", 0.36], ["2022-07-18", 0.358], ["2022-07-19", 0.358], ["2022-07-25", 0.365], ["2022-07-27", 0.37], ["2022-07-28", 0.373], ["2022-07-29", 0.372], ["2022-07-30", 0.378], ["2022-08-02", 0.378], ["2022-08-03", 0.376], ["2022-08-05", 0.4], ["2022-08-06", 0.403], ["2022-08-07", 0.407], ["2022-08-09", 0.408], ["2022-08-10", 0.408], ["2022-08-12", 0.408], ["2022-08-15", 0.414], ["2022-08-17", 0.41], ["2022-08-18", 0.417], ["2022-08-19", 0.419], ["2022-08-21", 0.422], ["2022-08-22", 0.422], ["2022-08-23", 0.422], ["2022-08-25", 0.427], ["2022-08-26", 0.436], ["2022-08-28", 0.435], ["2022-08-28", 0.447], ["2022-08-30", 0.45], ["2022-09-01", 0.452], ["2022-09-02", 0.453], ["2022-09-03", 0.456], ["2022-09-05", 0.456], ["2022-09-06", 0.454], ["2022-09-06", 0.45], ["2022-09-08", 0.451], ["2022-09-12", 0.451], ["2022-09-14", 0.455], ["2022-09-16", 0.452], ["2022-09-17", 0.451], ["2022-09-18", 0.451], ["2022-09-20", 0.451], ["2022-09-21", 0.45], ["2022-09-22", 0.45], ["2022-09-23", 0.451], ["2022-09-24", 0.448], ["2022-09-25", 0.449], ["2022-09-26", 0.449], ["2022-09-27", 0.448], ["2022-09-29", 0.448], ["2022-10-01", 0.445], ["2022-10-03", 0.445], ["2022-10-04", 0.441], ["2022-10-05", 0.44], ["2022-10-07", 0.44], ["2022-10-07", 0.44], ["2022-10-12", 0.44], ["2022-10-13", 0.446], ["2022-10-14", 0.447], ["2022-10-15", 0.448], ["2022-10-16", 0.449], ["2022-10-17", 0.445], ["2022-10-19", 0.444], ["2022-10-19", 0.443], ["2022-10-20", 0.435], ["2022-10-21", 0.432], ["2022-10-23", 0.431], ["2022-10-24", 0.426], ["2022-10-25", 0.425], ["2022-10-26", 0.419], ["2022-10-27", 0.421], ["2022-10-28", 0.416], ["2022-10-29", 0.412], ["2022-10-30", 0.409], ["2022-10-31", 0.407], ["2022-11-01", 0.406], ["2022-11-02", 0.398], ["2022-11-04", 0.395], ["2022-11-05", 0.39], ["2022-11-06", 0.379], ["2022-11-07", 0.357], ["2022-11-09", 0.353], ["2022-11-10", 0.379], ["2022-11-12", 0.398], ["2022-11-13", 0.474], ["2022-11-15", 0.549], ["2022-11-16", 0.605], ["2022-11-18", 0.613], ["2022-11-19", 0.62], ["2022-11-21", 0.625], ["2022-11-22", 0.636], ["2022-11-23", 0.636], ["2022-11-29", 0.637], ["2022-11-30", 0.637]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11697/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
On elections scheduled for November 8, 2022, US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.
Democratic President Joe Biden said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021,
I just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it.
Republican Senator Rick Scott said to Fox Business on the same day,
We’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”
Generic congressional ballot data shows Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden has a -8 percentage point net approval rating as of December 2021.
FiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House, arguing this is a signal of good prospects for Republicans. | Politics & Governance | After the conclusion of the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), if one party has more than 50% of seats in that chamber of congress, that party will be considered to control that chamber.
For the Senate, if seats are tied exactly 50-50 between two parties, the Senate will be "controlled" by the party of the President.
Independents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members | true | 2023-01-03 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Republican Party control the House following the 2022 US midterm elections? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.11], ["2022-07-21", 0.11], ["2022-07-21", 0.057], ["2022-07-21", 0.057], ["2022-07-24", 0.15], ["2022-07-24", 0.15], ["2022-07-24", 0.135], ["2022-07-24", 0.127], ["2022-07-25", 0.123], ["2022-08-04", 0.109], ["2022-08-04", 0.106], ["2022-08-04", 0.102], ["2022-08-04", 0.103], ["2022-08-11", 0.103], ["2022-08-13", 0.093], ["2022-08-14", 0.091], ["2022-08-15", 0.089], ["2022-08-23", 0.089], ["2022-09-11", 0.09], ["2022-10-01", 0.08], ["2022-10-13", 0.081], ["2022-10-16", 0.082], ["2022-10-16", 0.082], ["2022-11-10", 0.079], ["2022-11-25", 0.079], ["2022-11-25", 0.124], ["2022-11-26", 0.128], ["2022-12-02", 0.122], ["2022-12-06", 0.12], ["2022-12-17", 0.107], ["2022-12-17", 0.108], ["2022-12-23", 0.108]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11731/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Djibouti 5 3,601
Eritrea 0 589,100
Kenya 391 17,256
Uganda 500 19,710
Burundi 303 394,982
Tanzania 42 2,593
Rwanda 14 271,742
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Djibouti 0
Eritrea 0
Kenya 348
Uganda 182
Burundi 112
Tanzania 21
Rwanda 5
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Djibouti in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.053], ["2022-07-21", 0.057], ["2022-07-21", 0.053], ["2022-07-21", 0.057], ["2022-07-21", 0.053], ["2022-07-21", 0.057], ["2022-07-21", 0.16], ["2022-07-24", 0.16], ["2022-07-24", 0.126], ["2022-07-24", 0.126], ["2022-07-24", 0.113], ["2022-07-25", 0.111], ["2022-08-04", 0.111], ["2022-08-04", 0.103], ["2022-08-04", 0.1], ["2022-08-13", 0.097], ["2022-10-01", 0.098], ["2022-10-02", 0.091], ["2022-10-13", 0.089], ["2022-10-14", 0.083], ["2022-10-16", 0.083], ["2022-11-10", 0.082], ["2022-11-10", 0.082], ["2022-11-11", 0.084], ["2022-11-25", 0.083], ["2022-11-26", 0.1], ["2022-12-02", 0.094], ["2022-12-02", 0.091], ["2022-12-06", 0.088], ["2022-12-16", 0.083], ["2022-12-23", 0.083], ["2022-12-23", 0.081], ["2022-12-26", 0.08]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11732/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Djibouti 5 3,601
Eritrea 0 589,100
Kenya 391 17,256
Uganda 500 19,710
Burundi 303 394,982
Tanzania 42 2,593
Rwanda 14 271,742
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Djibouti 0
Eritrea 0
Kenya 348
Uganda 182
Burundi 112
Tanzania 21
Rwanda 5
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Eritrea in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.32], ["2022-07-21", 0.32], ["2022-07-21", 0.17], ["2022-07-21", 0.17], ["2022-07-24", 0.26], ["2022-07-24", 0.225], ["2022-07-24", 0.225], ["2022-07-24", 0.176], ["2022-07-25", 0.176], ["2022-08-04", 0.132], ["2022-08-04", 0.129], ["2022-08-04", 0.126], ["2022-08-11", 0.126], ["2022-08-13", 0.118], ["2022-09-11", 0.113], ["2022-10-01", 0.113], ["2022-10-01", 0.126], ["2022-10-13", 0.126], ["2022-10-16", 0.131], ["2022-10-20", 0.117], ["2022-10-20", 0.117], ["2022-10-21", 0.116], ["2022-11-01", 0.16], ["2022-11-03", 0.161], ["2022-11-25", 0.161], ["2022-11-25", 0.171], ["2022-11-26", 0.172], ["2022-11-26", 0.174], ["2022-11-26", 0.165], ["2022-12-02", 0.165], ["2022-12-02", 0.16], ["2022-12-03", 0.157], ["2022-12-06", 0.157], ["2022-12-16", 0.148], ["2022-12-16", 0.148], ["2022-12-17", 0.133], ["2022-12-23", 0.133], ["2022-12-23", 0.13], ["2022-12-25", 0.13], ["2022-12-25", 0.129], ["2022-12-26", 0.129]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11733/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Djibouti 5 3,601
Eritrea 0 589,100
Kenya 391 17,256
Uganda 500 19,710
Burundi 303 394,982
Tanzania 42 2,593
Rwanda 14 271,742
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Djibouti 0
Eritrea 0
Kenya 348
Uganda 182
Burundi 112
Tanzania 21
Rwanda 5
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Kenya in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.4], ["2022-07-21", 0.22], ["2022-07-21", 0.173], ["2022-07-21", 0.248], ["2022-07-24", 0.278], ["2022-07-24", 0.278], ["2022-07-24", 0.274], ["2022-07-24", 0.274], ["2022-07-27", 0.356], ["2022-07-27", 0.365], ["2022-07-28", 0.386], ["2022-07-28", 0.394], ["2022-08-04", 0.406], ["2022-08-04", 0.415], ["2022-08-04", 0.423], ["2022-08-05", 0.426], ["2022-08-05", 0.426], ["2022-08-05", 0.43], ["2022-08-13", 0.43], ["2022-08-18", 0.451], ["2022-08-31", 0.451], ["2022-09-11", 0.412], ["2022-09-19", 0.412], ["2022-10-01", 0.387], ["2022-10-02", 0.387], ["2022-10-02", 0.381], ["2022-10-13", 0.382], ["2022-10-14", 0.382], ["2022-10-14", 0.376], ["2022-10-15", 0.375], ["2022-10-15", 0.366], ["2022-10-16", 0.366], ["2022-10-22", 0.35], ["2022-10-24", 0.35], ["2022-10-25", 0.35], ["2022-10-25", 0.35], ["2022-11-10", 0.352], ["2022-11-10", 0.34], ["2022-11-10", 0.352], ["2022-11-10", 0.34], ["2022-11-10", 0.34], ["2022-11-10", 0.352], ["2022-11-11", 0.354], ["2022-11-12", 0.354], ["2022-11-24", 0.356], ["2022-11-25", 0.356], ["2022-11-25", 0.364], ["2022-11-25", 0.373], ["2022-11-26", 0.375], ["2022-11-26", 0.354], ["2022-11-27", 0.354], ["2022-11-28", 0.351], ["2022-12-02", 0.351], ["2022-12-02", 0.354], ["2022-12-06", 0.361], ["2022-12-06", 0.363], ["2022-12-07", 0.364], ["2022-12-16", 0.36], ["2022-12-16", 0.356], ["2022-12-17", 0.355], ["2022-12-17", 0.348], ["2022-12-23", 0.349], ["2022-12-23", 0.349], ["2022-12-23", 0.347], ["2022-12-26", 0.344], ["2022-12-30", 0.335], ["2022-12-30", 0.335]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11734/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Djibouti 5 3,601
Eritrea 0 589,100
Kenya 391 17,256
Uganda 500 19,710
Burundi 303 394,982
Tanzania 42 2,593
Rwanda 14 271,742
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Djibouti 0
Eritrea 0
Kenya 348
Uganda 182
Burundi 112
Tanzania 21
Rwanda 5
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Uganda in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.4], ["2022-07-21", 0.4], ["2022-07-21", 0.215], ["2022-07-21", 0.17], ["2022-07-24", 0.245], ["2022-07-24", 0.276], ["2022-07-24", 0.22], ["2022-07-24", 0.22], ["2022-07-25", 0.177], ["2022-08-04", 0.134], ["2022-08-04", 0.121], ["2022-08-04", 0.119], ["2022-08-11", 0.119], ["2022-08-13", 0.108], ["2022-08-14", 0.108], ["2022-08-15", 0.104], ["2022-09-11", 0.104], ["2022-09-12", 0.099], ["2022-10-01", 0.095], ["2022-10-13", 0.09], ["2022-10-14", 0.089], ["2022-10-14", 0.087], ["2022-10-16", 0.088], ["2022-10-16", 0.087], ["2022-11-10", 0.087], ["2022-11-10", 0.087], ["2022-11-10", 0.084], ["2022-11-10", 0.084], ["2022-11-25", 0.087], ["2022-11-26", 0.099], ["2022-12-02", 0.099], ["2022-12-06", 0.091], ["2022-12-07", 0.091], ["2022-12-16", 0.089], ["2022-12-17", 0.073], ["2022-12-23", 0.072], ["2022-12-26", 0.072]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11735/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Djibouti 5 3,601
Eritrea 0 589,100
Kenya 391 17,256
Uganda 500 19,710
Burundi 303 394,982
Tanzania 42 2,593
Rwanda 14 271,742
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Djibouti 0
Eritrea 0
Kenya 348
Uganda 182
Burundi 112
Tanzania 21
Rwanda 5
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Burundi in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.125], ["2022-07-21", 0.125], ["2022-07-21", 0.097], ["2022-07-24", 0.19], ["2022-07-24", 0.167], ["2022-07-24", 0.157], ["2022-07-24", 0.143], ["2022-07-25", 0.143], ["2022-08-04", 0.129], ["2022-08-04", 0.117], ["2022-08-04", 0.117], ["2022-08-11", 0.115], ["2022-08-13", 0.104], ["2022-08-14", 0.102], ["2022-08-15", 0.102], ["2022-09-11", 0.094], ["2022-10-01", 0.092], ["2022-10-13", 0.095], ["2022-10-16", 0.095], ["2022-11-10", 0.092], ["2022-11-10", 0.095], ["2022-11-10", 0.092], ["2022-11-10", 0.092], ["2022-11-10", 0.095], ["2022-11-11", 0.092], ["2022-11-25", 0.092], ["2022-11-26", 0.103], ["2022-11-28", 0.102], ["2022-12-02", 0.102], ["2022-12-04", 0.097], ["2022-12-05", 0.095], ["2022-12-06", 0.095], ["2022-12-16", 0.091], ["2022-12-17", 0.091], ["2022-12-23", 0.074], ["2022-12-25", 0.069], ["2022-12-26", 0.069]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11736/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Djibouti 5 3,601
Eritrea 0 589,100
Kenya 391 17,256
Uganda 500 19,710
Burundi 303 394,982
Tanzania 42 2,593
Rwanda 14 271,742
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Djibouti 0
Eritrea 0
Kenya 348
Uganda 182
Burundi 112
Tanzania 21
Rwanda 5
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Tanzania in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.2], ["2022-07-21", 0.12], ["2022-07-21", 0.188], ["2022-07-24", 0.19], ["2022-07-24", 0.162], ["2022-07-24", 0.141], ["2022-07-24", 0.119], ["2022-07-25", 0.096], ["2022-08-04", 0.096], ["2022-08-04", 0.086], ["2022-08-04", 0.081], ["2022-08-11", 0.071], ["2022-08-13", 0.067], ["2022-08-14", 0.067], ["2022-08-15", 0.065], ["2022-10-01", 0.063], ["2022-10-03", 0.059], ["2022-10-13", 0.054], ["2022-10-16", 0.055], ["2022-11-10", 0.055], ["2022-11-10", 0.055], ["2022-11-10", 0.055], ["2022-11-11", 0.053], ["2022-11-25", 0.053], ["2022-11-26", 0.066], ["2022-12-02", 0.066], ["2022-12-02", 0.062], ["2022-12-06", 0.059], ["2022-12-17", 0.044], ["2022-12-23", 0.044], ["2022-12-26", 0.041]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11737/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Djibouti 5 3,601
Eritrea 0 589,100
Kenya 391 17,256
Uganda 500 19,710
Burundi 303 394,982
Tanzania 42 2,593
Rwanda 14 271,742
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Djibouti 0
Eritrea 0
Kenya 348
Uganda 182
Burundi 112
Tanzania 21
Rwanda 5
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Rwanda in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.3], ["2022-07-21", 0.165], ["2022-07-21", 0.165], ["2022-07-21", 0.123], ["2022-07-24", 0.228], ["2022-07-24", 0.228], ["2022-07-24", 0.2], ["2022-07-24", 0.207], ["2022-07-24", 0.173], ["2022-07-25", 0.14], ["2022-07-26", 0.125], ["2022-08-01", 0.122], ["2022-08-04", 0.122], ["2022-08-04", 0.116], ["2022-08-13", 0.111], ["2022-08-17", 0.11], ["2022-08-23", 0.11], ["2022-09-11", 0.105], ["2022-09-11", 0.105], ["2022-09-11", 0.123], ["2022-09-19", 0.102], ["2022-09-20", 0.101], ["2022-09-27", 0.099], ["2022-10-01", 0.091], ["2022-10-02", 0.093], ["2022-10-02", 0.091], ["2022-10-13", 0.093], ["2022-10-16", 0.094], ["2022-11-10", 0.09], ["2022-11-10", 0.094], ["2022-11-10", 0.09], ["2022-11-10", 0.094], ["2022-11-10", 0.094], ["2022-11-10", 0.094], ["2022-11-11", 0.093], ["2022-11-25", 0.107], ["2022-11-26", 0.102], ["2022-12-02", 0.102], ["2022-12-02", 0.099], ["2022-12-06", 0.099], ["2022-12-16", 0.097], ["2022-12-23", 0.098], ["2022-12-23", 0.096], ["2022-12-23", 0.095], ["2022-12-26", 0.095]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11739/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Angola 150 24,095
Zimbabwe 21 21,628
Democratic Republic of Congo 5,684 6,464,340
Gabon 4 1,522
Eswatini (Swaziland) 28 245
Equatorial Guinea 1 403
Lesotho 8 47
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Angola 42
Zimbabwe 12
Democratic Republic of Congo 3,106
Gabon 0
Eswatini (Swaziland) 4
Equatorial Guinea 0
Lesotho 11
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Angola in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.23], ["2022-07-21", 0.125], ["2022-07-21", 0.19], ["2022-07-24", 0.198], ["2022-07-24", 0.198], ["2022-07-24", 0.175], ["2022-07-25", 0.147], ["2022-07-27", 0.216], ["2022-08-01", 0.196], ["2022-08-01", 0.176], ["2022-08-04", 0.16], ["2022-08-04", 0.151], ["2022-08-05", 0.151], ["2022-08-13", 0.141], ["2022-08-31", 0.141], ["2022-09-11", 0.138], ["2022-10-01", 0.129], ["2022-10-13", 0.131], ["2022-10-16", 0.131], ["2022-10-16", 0.132], ["2022-10-16", 0.134], ["2022-10-25", 0.134], ["2022-10-26", 0.134], ["2022-11-12", 0.134], ["2022-11-25", 0.146], ["2022-11-26", 0.146], ["2022-11-26", 0.147], ["2022-11-26", 0.148], ["2022-12-02", 0.136], ["2022-12-02", 0.136], ["2022-12-03", 0.134], ["2022-12-06", 0.132], ["2022-12-23", 0.131], ["2022-12-26", 0.132], ["2022-12-30", 0.134]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11740/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Angola 150 24,095
Zimbabwe 21 21,628
Democratic Republic of Congo 5,684 6,464,340
Gabon 4 1,522
Eswatini (Swaziland) 28 245
Equatorial Guinea 1 403
Lesotho 8 47
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Angola 42
Zimbabwe 12
Democratic Republic of Congo 3,106
Gabon 0
Eswatini (Swaziland) 4
Equatorial Guinea 0
Lesotho 11
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Zimbabwe in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.4], ["2022-07-21", 0.225], ["2022-07-21", 0.233], ["2022-07-21", 0.173], ["2022-07-21", 0.233], ["2022-07-21", 0.173], ["2022-07-21", 0.233], ["2022-07-21", 0.233], ["2022-07-21", 0.173], ["2022-07-21", 0.173], ["2022-07-21", 0.248], ["2022-07-22", 0.248], ["2022-07-23", 0.284], ["2022-07-24", 0.29], ["2022-07-24", 0.297], ["2022-07-27", 0.297], ["2022-08-01", 0.368], ["2022-08-04", 0.364], ["2022-08-04", 0.364], ["2022-08-05", 0.37], ["2022-08-13", 0.392], ["2022-08-18", 0.392], ["2022-08-31", 0.392], ["2022-08-31", 0.392], ["2022-09-11", 0.394], ["2022-09-19", 0.362], ["2022-09-19", 0.362], ["2022-09-20", 0.352], ["2022-09-20", 0.352], ["2022-10-01", 0.319], ["2022-10-02", 0.321], ["2022-10-02", 0.319], ["2022-10-02", 0.322], ["2022-10-02", 0.319], ["2022-10-02", 0.322], ["2022-10-02", 0.319], ["2022-10-02", 0.322], ["2022-10-02", 0.322], ["2022-10-02", 0.319], ["2022-10-02", 0.323], ["2022-10-02", 0.322], ["2022-10-02", 0.322], ["2022-10-02", 0.317], ["2022-10-05", 0.317], ["2022-10-05", 0.309], ["2022-10-06", 0.308], ["2022-10-07", 0.308], ["2022-10-07", 0.306], ["2022-10-07", 0.298], ["2022-10-08", 0.295], ["2022-10-13", 0.296], ["2022-10-16", 0.297], ["2022-10-16", 0.299], ["2022-10-16", 0.297], ["2022-10-20", 0.297], ["2022-10-21", 0.299], ["2022-10-22", 0.282], ["2022-10-25", 0.282], ["2022-10-25", 0.282], ["2022-10-26", 0.285], ["2022-11-01", 0.286], ["2022-11-08", 0.286], ["2022-11-09", 0.288], ["2022-11-10", 0.283], ["2022-11-10", 0.288], ["2022-11-10", 0.283], ["2022-11-10", 0.283], ["2022-11-10", 0.288], ["2022-11-12", 0.283], ["2022-11-14", 0.282], ["2022-11-24", 0.282], ["2022-11-25", 0.282], ["2022-11-25", 0.282], ["2022-11-25", 0.282], ["2022-11-26", 0.273], ["2022-11-27", 0.27], ["2022-11-28", 0.269], ["2022-12-02", 0.269], ["2022-12-02", 0.261], ["2022-12-03", 0.259], ["2022-12-06", 0.259], ["2022-12-06", 0.263], ["2022-12-07", 0.262], ["2022-12-16", 0.251], ["2022-12-17", 0.25], ["2022-12-23", 0.263], ["2022-12-23", 0.255], ["2022-12-23", 0.255], ["2022-12-23", 0.248], ["2022-12-26", 0.232], ["2022-12-28", 0.227], ["2022-12-28", 0.226], ["2022-12-30", 0.225], ["2022-12-30", 0.225], ["2022-12-31", 0.211]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11741/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Angola 150 24,095
Zimbabwe 21 21,628
Democratic Republic of Congo 5,684 6,464,340
Gabon 4 1,522
Eswatini (Swaziland) 28 245
Equatorial Guinea 1 403
Lesotho 8 47
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Angola 42
Zimbabwe 12
Democratic Republic of Congo 3,106
Gabon 0
Eswatini (Swaziland) 4
Equatorial Guinea 0
Lesotho 11
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Democratic Republic of Congo in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.06], ["2022-07-21", 0.05], ["2022-07-21", 0.155], ["2022-07-24", 0.144], ["2022-07-24", 0.144], ["2022-07-24", 0.123], ["2022-07-25", 0.123], ["2022-08-01", 0.117], ["2022-08-04", 0.099], ["2022-08-04", 0.094], ["2022-08-11", 0.086], ["2022-08-13", 0.081], ["2022-08-14", 0.081], ["2022-08-15", 0.078], ["2022-09-11", 0.07], ["2022-10-01", 0.067], ["2022-10-13", 0.069], ["2022-10-16", 0.069], ["2022-10-16", 0.069], ["2022-10-16", 0.069], ["2022-11-10", 0.07], ["2022-11-10", 0.069], ["2022-11-10", 0.07], ["2022-11-10", 0.069], ["2022-11-11", 0.069], ["2022-11-25", 0.069], ["2022-11-26", 0.081], ["2022-12-02", 0.081], ["2022-12-06", 0.075], ["2022-12-23", 0.074], ["2022-12-26", 0.072], ["2022-12-26", 0.072]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11742/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Angola 150 24,095
Zimbabwe 21 21,628
Democratic Republic of Congo 5,684 6,464,340
Gabon 4 1,522
Eswatini (Swaziland) 28 245
Equatorial Guinea 1 403
Lesotho 8 47
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Angola 42
Zimbabwe 12
Democratic Republic of Congo 3,106
Gabon 0
Eswatini (Swaziland) 4
Equatorial Guinea 0
Lesotho 11
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Gabon in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-20", 0.15], ["2022-07-21", 0.15], ["2022-07-21", 0.09], ["2022-07-21", 0.17], ["2022-07-24", 0.17], ["2022-07-24", 0.148], ["2022-07-24", 0.133], ["2022-07-25", 0.118], ["2022-08-01", 0.118], ["2022-08-04", 0.11], ["2022-08-04", 0.094], ["2022-08-11", 0.094], ["2022-08-13", 0.083], ["2022-08-15", 0.082], ["2022-09-11", 0.076], ["2022-10-01", 0.072], ["2022-10-02", 0.07], ["2022-10-02", 0.07], ["2022-10-13", 0.07], ["2022-10-16", 0.07], ["2022-10-16", 0.072], ["2022-11-10", 0.071], ["2022-11-10", 0.072], ["2022-11-10", 0.071], ["2022-11-11", 0.069], ["2022-11-25", 0.069], ["2022-11-26", 0.081], ["2022-12-02", 0.077], ["2022-12-02", 0.077], ["2022-12-06", 0.075], ["2022-12-23", 0.073], ["2022-12-26", 0.071]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11743/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Angola 150 24,095
Zimbabwe 21 21,628
Democratic Republic of Congo 5,684 6,464,340
Gabon 4 1,522
Eswatini (Swaziland) 28 245
Equatorial Guinea 1 403
Lesotho 8 47
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Angola 42
Zimbabwe 12
Democratic Republic of Congo 3,106
Gabon 0
Eswatini (Swaziland) 4
Equatorial Guinea 0
Lesotho 11
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Eswatini (Swaziland) in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.055], ["2022-07-21", 0.055], ["2022-07-21", 0.152], ["2022-07-24", 0.142], ["2022-07-24", 0.13], ["2022-07-24", 0.125], ["2022-07-25", 0.12], ["2022-08-01", 0.12], ["2022-08-04", 0.113], ["2022-08-04", 0.101], ["2022-08-11", 0.098], ["2022-08-13", 0.09], ["2022-09-11", 0.09], ["2022-10-01", 0.079], ["2022-10-02", 0.076], ["2022-10-02", 0.073], ["2022-10-13", 0.073], ["2022-10-16", 0.075], ["2022-10-16", 0.076], ["2022-10-16", 0.077], ["2022-11-10", 0.076], ["2022-11-10", 0.077], ["2022-11-11", 0.077], ["2022-11-25", 0.075], ["2022-11-26", 0.088], ["2022-12-02", 0.083], ["2022-12-06", 0.077], ["2022-12-16", 0.076], ["2022-12-26", 0.076]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11744/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Angola 150 24,095
Zimbabwe 21 21,628
Democratic Republic of Congo 5,684 6,464,340
Gabon 4 1,522
Eswatini (Swaziland) 28 245
Equatorial Guinea 1 403
Lesotho 8 47
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Angola 42
Zimbabwe 12
Democratic Republic of Congo 3,106
Gabon 0
Eswatini (Swaziland) 4
Equatorial Guinea 0
Lesotho 11
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Equatorial Guinea in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-21", 0.17], ["2022-07-21", 0.105], ["2022-07-21", 0.08], ["2022-07-24", 0.176], ["2022-07-24", 0.157], ["2022-07-24", 0.157], ["2022-07-25", 0.12], ["2022-08-01", 0.111], ["2022-08-04", 0.111], ["2022-08-04", 0.097], ["2022-08-11", 0.097], ["2022-08-13", 0.082], ["2022-08-14", 0.082], ["2022-08-15", 0.077], ["2022-09-11", 0.077], ["2022-09-27", 0.071], ["2022-10-01", 0.064], ["2022-10-13", 0.066], ["2022-10-16", 0.067], ["2022-11-10", 0.067], ["2022-11-11", 0.066], ["2022-11-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-26", 0.078], ["2022-12-02", 0.075], ["2022-12-02", 0.075], ["2022-12-06", 0.074], ["2022-12-23", 0.07], ["2022-12-25", 0.068], ["2022-12-26", 0.068]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11745/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of human conflict. To exclude displacements solely from natural disasters, this question also tracks fatalities from armed conflicts.
The table below shows the number of fatalities according to ACLED and forcibly displaced persons according to UNHCR. All estimates are for the 2021 calendar year.
country fatalities (2021) forcibly displaced persons (2021)
Angola 150 24,095
Zimbabwe 21 21,628
Democratic Republic of Congo 5,684 6,464,340
Gabon 4 1,522
Eswatini (Swaziland) 28 245
Equatorial Guinea 1 403
Lesotho 8 47
Note that UNHCR also reports internally displaced persons -- this question tracks forcibly displaced persons. A 20-year dataset from UNHCR on forcibly displaced persons can be found here
This table is the number of fatalities according to ACLED reported between January 1, 2022 to June 23, 2022.
country fatalities (2022)
Angola 42
Zimbabwe 12
Democratic Republic of Congo 3,106
Gabon 0
Eswatini (Swaziland) 4
Equatorial Guinea 0
Lesotho 11
A partial ACLED dataset on fatalities since 2020 is available here. | Security & Defense | Each country below will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are true:
The number of people forcibly displaced in 2022 is at least 5,000, and at least double the previous number in 2021
The number of deaths from armed conflicts in 2022 is at least 100, and at least double the previous number in 2021.
The tables above are the definitive numbers of deaths and displacements in 2021.
The number of people forcibly displaced will be determined according to UNHCR’s annual report for 2022. This information is expected to be available in June 2023.
The number of fatalities from armed conflicts will be determined by the ACLED dashboard. Specifically the Event Date in the filters will be set to start Jan 1, 2022 and end December 31, 2022 and the “reported fatalities” for a country will be used. All types of events reported by ACLED are included.
Fine Print
"Forcibly displaced persons" under UNHCR's classification includes
Refugees (including people in refugee-like situation)
Asylum seekers
Internally Displaced People of concern to UNHCR (including people in IDP-like situation)
Venezuelans displaced abroad | true | 2022-12-31 | Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in Lesotho in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.54], ["2022-07-14", 0.44], ["2022-07-15", 0.445], ["2022-07-15", 0.45], ["2022-07-16", 0.574], ["2022-07-16", 0.577], ["2022-07-17", 0.579], ["2022-07-17", 0.567], ["2022-07-20", 0.525], ["2022-07-22", 0.438], ["2022-07-22", 0.4], ["2022-07-23", 0.353], ["2022-07-23", 0.353], ["2022-07-24", 0.312], ["2022-07-24", 0.339], ["2022-07-25", 0.341], ["2022-07-26", 0.341], ["2022-07-27", 0.341], ["2022-07-31", 0.341], ["2022-08-01", 0.343], ["2022-08-02", 0.345], ["2022-08-03", 0.349], ["2022-08-03", 0.349], ["2022-08-04", 0.335], ["2022-08-04", 0.322], ["2022-08-05", 0.322], ["2022-08-06", 0.312], ["2022-08-07", 0.312], ["2022-08-11", 0.302], ["2022-08-12", 0.3], ["2022-08-13", 0.3], ["2022-08-18", 0.293], ["2022-08-22", 0.293], ["2022-08-29", 0.294], ["2022-08-30", 0.294], ["2022-08-31", 0.293], ["2022-09-01", 0.292], ["2022-09-09", 0.286], ["2022-09-11", 0.277], ["2022-09-12", 0.277], ["2022-09-15", 0.274], ["2022-09-21", 0.268], ["2022-09-21", 0.268], ["2022-09-22", 0.262], ["2022-09-23", 0.26], ["2022-10-01", 0.255], ["2022-10-02", 0.254], ["2022-10-08", 0.251], ["2022-10-09", 0.25], ["2022-10-09", 0.25], ["2022-10-10", 0.245], ["2022-10-10", 0.244], ["2022-10-12", 0.23], ["2022-10-13", 0.227], ["2022-10-14", 0.231], ["2022-10-16", 0.232], ["2022-10-16", 0.233], ["2022-10-25", 0.233], ["2022-10-26", 0.233], ["2022-10-27", 0.233], ["2022-10-28", 0.235], ["2022-10-29", 0.234], ["2022-10-30", 0.233], ["2022-11-01", 0.233], ["2022-11-03", 0.232], ["2022-11-09", 0.231], ["2022-11-10", 0.23], ["2022-11-11", 0.23], ["2022-11-12", 0.229], ["2022-11-14", 0.229], ["2022-11-17", 0.228], ["2022-11-17", 0.227], ["2022-11-24", 0.226], ["2022-11-25", 0.226], ["2022-11-26", 0.226], ["2022-11-27", 0.22], ["2022-11-28", 0.219], ["2022-11-29", 0.219], ["2022-12-02", 0.217], ["2022-12-02", 0.218], ["2022-12-06", 0.214], ["2022-12-06", 0.213], ["2022-12-07", 0.211], ["2022-12-08", 0.21], ["2022-12-08", 0.21], ["2022-12-14", 0.208], ["2022-12-15", 0.206], ["2022-12-16", 0.204], ["2022-12-17", 0.201], ["2022-12-18", 0.201], ["2022-12-20", 0.199], ["2022-12-22", 0.198], ["2022-12-25", 0.194], ["2022-12-25", 0.194], ["2022-12-26", 0.194], ["2022-12-27", 0.187], ["2022-12-28", 0.184], ["2022-12-28", 0.174], ["2022-12-29", 0.174], ["2022-12-30", 0.162], ["2022-12-30", 0.156]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11747/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Indonesian Rupiah (Rp) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.99], ["2022-07-14", 0.542], ["2022-07-15", 0.548], ["2022-07-15", 0.541], ["2022-07-16", 0.606], ["2022-07-17", 0.606], ["2022-07-17", 0.617], ["2022-07-20", 0.57], ["2022-07-22", 0.57], ["2022-07-22", 0.533], ["2022-07-23", 0.533], ["2022-07-23", 0.477], ["2022-07-24", 0.464], ["2022-07-24", 0.432], ["2022-07-25", 0.436], ["2022-07-25", 0.436], ["2022-07-26", 0.44], ["2022-07-27", 0.435], ["2022-07-31", 0.435], ["2022-07-31", 0.431], ["2022-08-01", 0.423], ["2022-08-03", 0.425], ["2022-08-04", 0.387], ["2022-08-04", 0.377], ["2022-08-05", 0.365], ["2022-08-05", 0.37], ["2022-08-11", 0.361], ["2022-08-13", 0.361], ["2022-08-18", 0.356], ["2022-08-31", 0.356], ["2022-09-09", 0.356], ["2022-09-11", 0.35], ["2022-09-12", 0.339], ["2022-09-21", 0.338], ["2022-09-22", 0.338], ["2022-09-23", 0.326], ["2022-09-29", 0.326], ["2022-10-01", 0.326], ["2022-10-08", 0.317], ["2022-10-09", 0.314], ["2022-10-09", 0.306], ["2022-10-09", 0.3], ["2022-10-10", 0.3], ["2022-10-12", 0.283], ["2022-10-12", 0.277], ["2022-10-13", 0.277], ["2022-10-14", 0.281], ["2022-10-16", 0.281], ["2022-10-16", 0.281], ["2022-10-17", 0.282], ["2022-10-20", 0.282], ["2022-10-20", 0.281], ["2022-10-25", 0.281], ["2022-10-26", 0.279], ["2022-10-26", 0.283], ["2022-10-27", 0.283], ["2022-10-27", 0.286], ["2022-10-28", 0.282], ["2022-10-28", 0.277], ["2022-10-30", 0.277], ["2022-11-01", 0.277], ["2022-11-09", 0.277], ["2022-11-10", 0.275], ["2022-11-10", 0.27], ["2022-11-10", 0.27], ["2022-11-12", 0.27], ["2022-11-13", 0.27], ["2022-11-16", 0.269], ["2022-11-16", 0.269], ["2022-11-23", 0.27], ["2022-11-25", 0.27], ["2022-11-26", 0.27], ["2022-11-27", 0.261], ["2022-11-28", 0.26], ["2022-11-29", 0.259], ["2022-11-29", 0.259], ["2022-12-02", 0.256], ["2022-12-02", 0.251], ["2022-12-06", 0.254], ["2022-12-06", 0.25], ["2022-12-07", 0.249], ["2022-12-08", 0.248], ["2022-12-08", 0.246], ["2022-12-09", 0.241], ["2022-12-12", 0.242], ["2022-12-14", 0.242], ["2022-12-15", 0.24], ["2022-12-16", 0.239], ["2022-12-17", 0.222], ["2022-12-17", 0.218], ["2022-12-20", 0.217], ["2022-12-22", 0.217], ["2022-12-25", 0.214], ["2022-12-26", 0.214], ["2022-12-26", 0.201], ["2022-12-27", 0.2], ["2022-12-28", 0.195], ["2022-12-28", 0.189], ["2022-12-29", 0.189], ["2022-12-30", 0.188], ["2022-12-30", 0.164]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11748/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Thai Baht (฿) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-12 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.99], ["2022-07-13", 0.695], ["2022-07-13", 0.604], ["2022-07-13", 0.651], ["2022-07-15", 0.659], ["2022-07-15", 0.638], ["2022-07-15", 0.691], ["2022-07-15", 0.695], ["2022-07-17", 0.695], ["2022-07-17", 0.696], ["2022-07-20", 0.715], ["2022-07-20", 0.658], ["2022-07-22", 0.651], ["2022-07-22", 0.659], ["2022-07-22", 0.651], ["2022-07-22", 0.647], ["2022-07-22", 0.651], ["2022-07-23", 0.644], ["2022-07-23", 0.636], ["2022-07-23", 0.638], ["2022-07-23", 0.633], ["2022-07-23", 0.626], ["2022-07-23", 0.619], ["2022-07-23", 0.633], ["2022-07-24", 0.627], ["2022-07-24", 0.631], ["2022-07-24", 0.631], ["2022-07-26", 0.633], ["2022-07-26", 0.634], ["2022-07-27", 0.636], ["2022-07-29", 0.639], ["2022-07-29", 0.642], ["2022-07-30", 0.642], ["2022-07-30", 0.648], ["2022-07-31", 0.648], ["2022-07-31", 0.635], ["2022-07-31", 0.623], ["2022-08-01", 0.616], ["2022-08-02", 0.616], ["2022-08-03", 0.616], ["2022-08-03", 0.615], ["2022-08-03", 0.615], ["2022-08-04", 0.615], ["2022-08-04", 0.617], ["2022-08-04", 0.629], ["2022-08-04", 0.624], ["2022-08-05", 0.63], ["2022-08-05", 0.635], ["2022-08-05", 0.635], ["2022-08-05", 0.629], ["2022-08-07", 0.629], ["2022-08-11", 0.63], ["2022-08-12", 0.633], ["2022-08-13", 0.633], ["2022-08-14", 0.643], ["2022-08-15", 0.646], ["2022-08-18", 0.646], ["2022-08-20", 0.646], ["2022-08-20", 0.644], ["2022-08-21", 0.641], ["2022-08-23", 0.642], ["2022-08-23", 0.641], ["2022-08-31", 0.641], ["2022-09-02", 0.641], ["2022-09-11", 0.646], ["2022-09-11", 0.657], ["2022-09-12", 0.651], ["2022-09-19", 0.65], ["2022-09-19", 0.65], ["2022-09-19", 0.643], ["2022-09-20", 0.642], ["2022-09-21", 0.646], ["2022-09-21", 0.641], ["2022-09-24", 0.636], ["2022-09-24", 0.636], ["2022-09-26", 0.636], ["2022-09-29", 0.636], ["2022-10-01", 0.636], ["2022-10-08", 0.643], ["2022-10-09", 0.643], ["2022-10-09", 0.645], ["2022-10-09", 0.645], ["2022-10-09", 0.645], ["2022-10-09", 0.648], ["2022-10-09", 0.648], ["2022-10-10", 0.649], ["2022-10-10", 0.652], ["2022-10-10", 0.644], ["2022-10-11", 0.648], ["2022-10-11", 0.648]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11749/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Russian Ruble (₽) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-14", 0.213], ["2022-07-15", 0.348], ["2022-07-16", 0.406], ["2022-07-16", 0.499], ["2022-07-17", 0.526], ["2022-07-20", 0.505], ["2022-07-22", 0.506], ["2022-07-22", 0.54], ["2022-07-23", 0.517], ["2022-07-24", 0.556], ["2022-07-25", 0.589], ["2022-07-26", 0.589], ["2022-07-27", 0.589], ["2022-07-30", 0.606], ["2022-07-31", 0.623], ["2022-08-01", 0.626], ["2022-08-03", 0.626], ["2022-08-04", 0.644], ["2022-08-05", 0.644], ["2022-08-06", 0.645], ["2022-08-07", 0.641], ["2022-08-12", 0.642], ["2022-08-13", 0.642], ["2022-08-18", 0.647], ["2022-08-25", 0.645], ["2022-08-25", 0.646], ["2022-08-26", 0.652], ["2022-08-31", 0.652], ["2022-09-02", 0.652], ["2022-09-11", 0.658], ["2022-09-12", 0.657], ["2022-09-19", 0.655], ["2022-09-20", 0.67], ["2022-09-21", 0.674], ["2022-09-21", 0.663], ["2022-09-29", 0.667], ["2022-10-01", 0.667], ["2022-10-01", 0.668], ["2022-10-09", 0.668], ["2022-10-10", 0.665], ["2022-10-10", 0.667], ["2022-10-12", 0.667], ["2022-10-12", 0.66], ["2022-10-13", 0.663], ["2022-10-14", 0.669], ["2022-10-15", 0.67], ["2022-10-16", 0.669], ["2022-10-17", 0.669], ["2022-10-20", 0.67], ["2022-10-21", 0.67], ["2022-10-25", 0.669], ["2022-10-26", 0.669], ["2022-10-27", 0.67], ["2022-10-28", 0.666], ["2022-11-01", 0.666], ["2022-11-03", 0.665], ["2022-11-03", 0.663], ["2022-11-05", 0.661], ["2022-11-06", 0.66], ["2022-11-07", 0.664], ["2022-11-07", 0.658], ["2022-11-09", 0.657], ["2022-11-10", 0.653], ["2022-11-11", 0.653], ["2022-11-12", 0.653], ["2022-11-14", 0.652], ["2022-11-16", 0.651], ["2022-11-16", 0.651], ["2022-11-23", 0.651], ["2022-11-24", 0.649], ["2022-11-25", 0.647], ["2022-11-26", 0.647], ["2022-11-27", 0.641], ["2022-11-28", 0.641], ["2022-11-29", 0.64], ["2022-12-02", 0.638], ["2022-12-02", 0.625], ["2022-12-06", 0.625], ["2022-12-07", 0.622], ["2022-12-08", 0.622], ["2022-12-09", 0.615], ["2022-12-11", 0.615], ["2022-12-12", 0.614], ["2022-12-14", 0.614], ["2022-12-15", 0.613], ["2022-12-16", 0.613], ["2022-12-17", 0.596], ["2022-12-17", 0.59], ["2022-12-18", 0.588], ["2022-12-20", 0.584], ["2022-12-21", 0.584], ["2022-12-22", 0.583], ["2022-12-23", 0.582], ["2022-12-24", 0.576], ["2022-12-25", 0.579], ["2022-12-26", 0.56], ["2022-12-28", 0.539], ["2022-12-28", 0.52], ["2022-12-30", 0.504], ["2022-12-30", 0.378]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11750/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Turkish Lira (₺) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.151], ["2022-07-15", 0.204], ["2022-07-15", 0.283], ["2022-07-16", 0.271], ["2022-07-16", 0.319], ["2022-07-17", 0.319], ["2022-07-17", 0.304], ["2022-07-20", 0.284], ["2022-07-22", 0.294], ["2022-07-22", 0.281], ["2022-07-23", 0.273], ["2022-07-23", 0.258], ["2022-07-24", 0.252], ["2022-07-24", 0.285], ["2022-07-25", 0.289], ["2022-07-26", 0.289], ["2022-07-27", 0.283], ["2022-07-30", 0.297], ["2022-07-31", 0.308], ["2022-08-01", 0.294], ["2022-08-03", 0.288], ["2022-08-04", 0.274], ["2022-08-04", 0.266], ["2022-08-05", 0.274], ["2022-08-13", 0.272], ["2022-08-14", 0.272], ["2022-08-15", 0.271], ["2022-08-18", 0.27], ["2022-08-29", 0.27], ["2022-08-31", 0.271], ["2022-09-09", 0.268], ["2022-09-10", 0.263], ["2022-09-11", 0.255], ["2022-09-12", 0.26], ["2022-09-21", 0.261], ["2022-09-22", 0.261], ["2022-09-29", 0.256], ["2022-09-29", 0.258], ["2022-10-01", 0.261], ["2022-10-02", 0.264], ["2022-10-06", 0.268], ["2022-10-06", 0.268], ["2022-10-08", 0.268], ["2022-10-09", 0.272], ["2022-10-09", 0.276], ["2022-10-10", 0.276], ["2022-10-11", 0.267], ["2022-10-12", 0.271], ["2022-10-12", 0.283], ["2022-10-13", 0.302], ["2022-10-14", 0.313], ["2022-10-15", 0.313], ["2022-10-16", 0.312], ["2022-10-20", 0.31], ["2022-10-22", 0.31], ["2022-10-22", 0.309], ["2022-10-25", 0.314], ["2022-10-26", 0.314], ["2022-10-26", 0.314], ["2022-10-27", 0.305], ["2022-10-27", 0.306], ["2022-10-29", 0.306], ["2022-10-30", 0.303], ["2022-11-01", 0.302], ["2022-11-05", 0.303], ["2022-11-09", 0.301], ["2022-11-09", 0.301], ["2022-11-10", 0.292], ["2022-11-10", 0.292], ["2022-11-12", 0.292], ["2022-11-13", 0.292], ["2022-11-23", 0.289], ["2022-11-24", 0.283], ["2022-11-25", 0.282], ["2022-11-26", 0.274], ["2022-11-27", 0.267], ["2022-11-28", 0.265], ["2022-11-29", 0.265], ["2022-12-01", 0.259], ["2022-12-02", 0.258], ["2022-12-02", 0.253], ["2022-12-06", 0.251], ["2022-12-06", 0.248], ["2022-12-07", 0.244], ["2022-12-08", 0.244], ["2022-12-08", 0.243], ["2022-12-14", 0.242], ["2022-12-15", 0.24], ["2022-12-16", 0.237], ["2022-12-17", 0.224], ["2022-12-17", 0.222], ["2022-12-18", 0.219], ["2022-12-20", 0.219], ["2022-12-25", 0.216], ["2022-12-26", 0.205], ["2022-12-27", 0.203], ["2022-12-28", 0.197], ["2022-12-28", 0.192], ["2022-12-30", 0.192], ["2022-12-30", 0.167]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11751/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Polish złoty (ł) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.99], ["2022-07-14", 0.524], ["2022-07-15", 0.514], ["2022-07-15", 0.519], ["2022-07-16", 0.519], ["2022-07-16", 0.587], ["2022-07-17", 0.569], ["2022-07-17", 0.569], ["2022-07-20", 0.544], ["2022-07-22", 0.477], ["2022-07-23", 0.469], ["2022-07-24", 0.423], ["2022-07-24", 0.415], ["2022-07-26", 0.413], ["2022-07-27", 0.407], ["2022-07-31", 0.412], ["2022-08-01", 0.401], ["2022-08-03", 0.39], ["2022-08-04", 0.386], ["2022-08-05", 0.387], ["2022-08-06", 0.37], ["2022-08-07", 0.37], ["2022-08-13", 0.373], ["2022-08-18", 0.373], ["2022-08-25", 0.372], ["2022-08-31", 0.372], ["2022-09-02", 0.36], ["2022-09-03", 0.36], ["2022-09-03", 0.336], ["2022-09-08", 0.337], ["2022-09-09", 0.331], ["2022-09-11", 0.331], ["2022-09-12", 0.309], ["2022-09-15", 0.308], ["2022-09-19", 0.308], ["2022-09-21", 0.299], ["2022-09-22", 0.299], ["2022-09-28", 0.291], ["2022-10-01", 0.287], ["2022-10-02", 0.287], ["2022-10-02", 0.288], ["2022-10-08", 0.288], ["2022-10-09", 0.279], ["2022-10-09", 0.279], ["2022-10-10", 0.274], ["2022-10-10", 0.26], ["2022-10-11", 0.26], ["2022-10-12", 0.256], ["2022-10-12", 0.246], ["2022-10-13", 0.244], ["2022-10-14", 0.247], ["2022-10-15", 0.248], ["2022-10-16", 0.248], ["2022-10-16", 0.249], ["2022-10-20", 0.247], ["2022-10-21", 0.247], ["2022-10-25", 0.247], ["2022-10-26", 0.247], ["2022-10-26", 0.245], ["2022-10-27", 0.244], ["2022-10-27", 0.244], ["2022-10-28", 0.248], ["2022-10-29", 0.245], ["2022-10-29", 0.245], ["2022-11-01", 0.236], ["2022-11-01", 0.236], ["2022-11-03", 0.236], ["2022-11-03", 0.235], ["2022-11-09", 0.235], ["2022-11-10", 0.234], ["2022-11-10", 0.221], ["2022-11-12", 0.221], ["2022-11-14", 0.221], ["2022-11-15", 0.22], ["2022-11-16", 0.212], ["2022-11-23", 0.212], ["2022-11-24", 0.208], ["2022-11-25", 0.206], ["2022-11-26", 0.201], ["2022-11-26", 0.2], ["2022-11-29", 0.199], ["2022-12-02", 0.199], ["2022-12-02", 0.195], ["2022-12-06", 0.195], ["2022-12-06", 0.195], ["2022-12-07", 0.192], ["2022-12-08", 0.192], ["2022-12-08", 0.191], ["2022-12-09", 0.185], ["2022-12-10", 0.185], ["2022-12-14", 0.185], ["2022-12-16", 0.184], ["2022-12-17", 0.178], ["2022-12-20", 0.176], ["2022-12-26", 0.176], ["2022-12-27", 0.173], ["2022-12-28", 0.169], ["2022-12-28", 0.168], ["2022-12-29", 0.164], ["2022-12-30", 0.147], ["2022-12-30", 0.147]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11752/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Brazilian Real (R$) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.161], ["2022-07-14", 0.178], ["2022-07-15", 0.178], ["2022-07-15", 0.211], ["2022-07-15", 0.196], ["2022-07-16", 0.197], ["2022-07-16", 0.181], ["2022-07-16", 0.278], ["2022-07-17", 0.199], ["2022-07-17", 0.187], ["2022-07-20", 0.183], ["2022-07-22", 0.175], ["2022-07-22", 0.171], ["2022-07-22", 0.171], ["2022-07-23", 0.167], ["2022-07-23", 0.169], ["2022-07-23", 0.169], ["2022-07-24", 0.189], ["2022-07-24", 0.217], ["2022-07-24", 0.217], ["2022-07-26", 0.211], ["2022-07-26", 0.211], ["2022-07-27", 0.212], ["2022-07-31", 0.212], ["2022-08-03", 0.227], ["2022-08-04", 0.215], ["2022-08-04", 0.202], ["2022-08-04", 0.201], ["2022-08-05", 0.196], ["2022-08-05", 0.196], ["2022-08-13", 0.192], ["2022-08-15", 0.192], ["2022-08-18", 0.191], ["2022-08-25", 0.191], ["2022-08-31", 0.191], ["2022-09-09", 0.187], ["2022-09-09", 0.187], ["2022-09-11", 0.181], ["2022-09-12", 0.181], ["2022-09-12", 0.179], ["2022-09-22", 0.173], ["2022-09-22", 0.173], ["2022-10-01", 0.173], ["2022-10-02", 0.168], ["2022-10-08", 0.165], ["2022-10-08", 0.164], ["2022-10-08", 0.163], ["2022-10-09", 0.163], ["2022-10-09", 0.159], ["2022-10-10", 0.147], ["2022-10-11", 0.147], ["2022-10-12", 0.148], ["2022-10-12", 0.148], ["2022-10-13", 0.146], ["2022-10-14", 0.147], ["2022-10-14", 0.148], ["2022-10-16", 0.148], ["2022-10-16", 0.148], ["2022-10-16", 0.149], ["2022-10-25", 0.149], ["2022-10-25", 0.148], ["2022-10-26", 0.148], ["2022-10-27", 0.147], ["2022-10-27", 0.145], ["2022-10-28", 0.144], ["2022-10-28", 0.142], ["2022-10-29", 0.141], ["2022-10-31", 0.141], ["2022-11-01", 0.141], ["2022-11-12", 0.141], ["2022-11-15", 0.141], ["2022-11-16", 0.14], ["2022-11-16", 0.14], ["2022-11-25", 0.14], ["2022-11-25", 0.14], ["2022-11-26", 0.137], ["2022-12-02", 0.134], ["2022-12-02", 0.134], ["2022-12-06", 0.134], ["2022-12-06", 0.135], ["2022-12-06", 0.135], ["2022-12-07", 0.135], ["2022-12-14", 0.134], ["2022-12-15", 0.134], ["2022-12-16", 0.132], ["2022-12-16", 0.129], ["2022-12-17", 0.129], ["2022-12-17", 0.126], ["2022-12-17", 0.125], ["2022-12-20", 0.124], ["2022-12-24", 0.124], ["2022-12-26", 0.12], ["2022-12-26", 0.12], ["2022-12-27", 0.118], ["2022-12-28", 0.118], ["2022-12-28", 0.116], ["2022-12-28", 0.112], ["2022-12-29", 0.111], ["2022-12-30", 0.107], ["2022-12-30", 0.106]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11753/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Mexican Peso ($) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-08 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.99], ["2022-07-13", 0.545], ["2022-07-13", 0.545], ["2022-07-13", 0.479], ["2022-07-14", 0.472], ["2022-07-15", 0.478], ["2022-07-15", 0.478], ["2022-07-15", 0.564], ["2022-07-16", 0.564], ["2022-07-16", 0.614], ["2022-07-16", 0.631], ["2022-07-16", 0.652], ["2022-07-16", 0.652], ["2022-07-17", 0.676], ["2022-07-19", 0.676], ["2022-07-20", 0.678], ["2022-07-22", 0.647], ["2022-07-22", 0.654], ["2022-07-22", 0.654], ["2022-07-22", 0.657], ["2022-07-23", 0.657], ["2022-07-24", 0.655], ["2022-07-24", 0.655], ["2022-07-24", 0.67], ["2022-07-24", 0.639], ["2022-07-26", 0.643], ["2022-07-26", 0.598], ["2022-07-27", 0.591], ["2022-07-27", 0.591], ["2022-07-27", 0.583], ["2022-07-27", 0.585], ["2022-07-27", 0.585], ["2022-07-27", 0.623], ["2022-07-29", 0.623], ["2022-07-29", 0.627], ["2022-07-30", 0.636], ["2022-07-30", 0.631], ["2022-07-30", 0.633], ["2022-07-31", 0.635], ["2022-07-31", 0.636], ["2022-07-31", 0.637], ["2022-07-31", 0.64], ["2022-07-31", 0.642], ["2022-08-01", 0.642], ["2022-08-03", 0.642], ["2022-08-03", 0.642], ["2022-08-03", 0.645], ["2022-08-03", 0.642], ["2022-08-03", 0.644], ["2022-08-04", 0.645], ["2022-08-04", 0.649], ["2022-08-04", 0.649], ["2022-08-04", 0.658], ["2022-08-05", 0.651], ["2022-08-05", 0.653], ["2022-08-05", 0.656], ["2022-08-05", 0.66], ["2022-08-12", 0.661], ["2022-08-13", 0.666], ["2022-08-13", 0.667], ["2022-08-15", 0.667], ["2022-08-18", 0.667], ["2022-08-21", 0.668], ["2022-08-25", 0.668], ["2022-08-25", 0.671], ["2022-08-26", 0.671], ["2022-08-31", 0.671], ["2022-09-02", 0.671], ["2022-09-02", 0.676], ["2022-09-03", 0.681], ["2022-09-03", 0.681], ["2022-09-03", 0.683], ["2022-09-08", 0.695], ["2022-09-11", 0.695], ["2022-09-12", 0.699], ["2022-09-12", 0.705], ["2022-09-13", 0.707], ["2022-09-21", 0.707], ["2022-09-21", 0.709], ["2022-09-21", 0.709], ["2022-09-22", 0.709], ["2022-09-22", 0.711], ["2022-09-23", 0.711], ["2022-09-23", 0.712], ["2022-09-24", 0.713], ["2022-09-25", 0.716], ["2022-09-26", 0.717], ["2022-09-26", 0.717], ["2022-09-28", 0.724], ["2022-10-01", 0.732], ["2022-10-01", 0.73], ["2022-10-02", 0.73], ["2022-10-03", 0.73], ["2022-10-03", 0.738], ["2022-10-04", 0.739]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11754/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Argentine Peso ($) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.055], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-13", 0.147], ["2022-07-14", 0.147], ["2022-07-14", 0.145], ["2022-07-14", 0.143], ["2022-07-15", 0.144], ["2022-07-15", 0.179], ["2022-07-16", 0.179], ["2022-07-17", 0.167], ["2022-07-20", 0.165], ["2022-07-22", 0.158], ["2022-07-22", 0.158], ["2022-07-22", 0.151], ["2022-07-22", 0.149], ["2022-07-23", 0.145], ["2022-07-23", 0.141], ["2022-07-24", 0.138], ["2022-07-24", 0.138], ["2022-07-24", 0.135], ["2022-07-24", 0.135], ["2022-07-27", 0.133], ["2022-07-31", 0.133], ["2022-07-31", 0.134], ["2022-08-03", 0.14], ["2022-08-03", 0.134], ["2022-08-04", 0.134], ["2022-08-04", 0.129], ["2022-08-04", 0.124], ["2022-08-05", 0.12], ["2022-08-05", 0.118], ["2022-08-05", 0.118], ["2022-08-12", 0.117], ["2022-08-13", 0.116], ["2022-08-14", 0.116], ["2022-08-15", 0.114], ["2022-08-18", 0.112], ["2022-08-31", 0.112], ["2022-09-08", 0.108], ["2022-09-11", 0.104], ["2022-09-12", 0.1], ["2022-09-12", 0.1], ["2022-09-13", 0.098], ["2022-09-21", 0.115], ["2022-09-25", 0.114], ["2022-09-25", 0.115], ["2022-09-29", 0.098], ["2022-10-01", 0.098], ["2022-10-02", 0.095], ["2022-10-02", 0.091], ["2022-10-02", 0.093], ["2022-10-02", 0.093], ["2022-10-08", 0.091], ["2022-10-09", 0.088], ["2022-10-09", 0.086], ["2022-10-09", 0.083], ["2022-10-09", 0.083], ["2022-10-09", 0.082], ["2022-10-09", 0.081], ["2022-10-09", 0.08], ["2022-10-10", 0.072], ["2022-10-11", 0.072], ["2022-10-12", 0.072], ["2022-10-12", 0.065], ["2022-10-13", 0.064], ["2022-10-14", 0.063], ["2022-10-16", 0.064], ["2022-10-17", 0.063], ["2022-10-20", 0.063], ["2022-10-21", 0.062], ["2022-10-22", 0.062], ["2022-10-25", 0.062], ["2022-10-27", 0.061], ["2022-10-28", 0.058], ["2022-11-01", 0.058], ["2022-11-10", 0.056], ["2022-11-12", 0.056], ["2022-11-15", 0.056], ["2022-11-24", 0.051], ["2022-11-25", 0.051], ["2022-11-26", 0.05], ["2022-11-26", 0.05], ["2022-12-01", 0.05], ["2022-12-02", 0.049], ["2022-12-02", 0.048], ["2022-12-02", 0.048], ["2022-12-03", 0.047], ["2022-12-06", 0.047], ["2022-12-06", 0.046], ["2022-12-16", 0.046], ["2022-12-16", 0.046], ["2022-12-17", 0.045], ["2022-12-26", 0.045], ["2022-12-28", 0.044], ["2022-12-29", 0.044], ["2022-12-30", 0.042], ["2022-12-30", 0.041], ["2022-12-30", 0.041], ["2022-12-30", 0.037]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11755/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Saudi Riyal (SAR) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.196], ["2022-07-14", 0.212], ["2022-07-15", 0.202], ["2022-07-15", 0.236], ["2022-07-17", 0.225], ["2022-07-20", 0.225], ["2022-07-21", 0.202], ["2022-07-22", 0.191], ["2022-07-22", 0.185], ["2022-07-23", 0.182], ["2022-07-23", 0.183], ["2022-07-23", 0.183], ["2022-07-24", 0.173], ["2022-07-24", 0.173], ["2022-07-24", 0.196], ["2022-07-24", 0.194], ["2022-07-24", 0.194], ["2022-07-25", 0.198], ["2022-07-26", 0.197], ["2022-07-27", 0.197], ["2022-07-30", 0.197], ["2022-07-30", 0.189], ["2022-07-31", 0.189], ["2022-08-03", 0.181], ["2022-08-04", 0.181], ["2022-08-04", 0.166], ["2022-08-04", 0.165], ["2022-08-05", 0.165], ["2022-08-05", 0.162], ["2022-08-12", 0.16], ["2022-08-12", 0.16], ["2022-08-13", 0.154], ["2022-08-15", 0.154], ["2022-08-18", 0.152], ["2022-08-31", 0.152], ["2022-09-11", 0.148], ["2022-09-12", 0.148], ["2022-09-22", 0.141], ["2022-09-23", 0.141], ["2022-10-01", 0.137], ["2022-10-09", 0.137], ["2022-10-09", 0.132], ["2022-10-10", 0.131], ["2022-10-10", 0.121], ["2022-10-12", 0.116], ["2022-10-12", 0.116], ["2022-10-13", 0.117], ["2022-10-14", 0.117], ["2022-10-14", 0.124], ["2022-10-16", 0.124], ["2022-10-16", 0.124], ["2022-10-20", 0.123], ["2022-10-21", 0.123], ["2022-10-25", 0.123], ["2022-10-25", 0.123], ["2022-10-27", 0.125], ["2022-10-27", 0.122], ["2022-10-28", 0.122], ["2022-10-29", 0.121], ["2022-11-01", 0.121], ["2022-11-02", 0.122], ["2022-11-05", 0.122], ["2022-11-12", 0.122], ["2022-11-13", 0.122], ["2022-11-15", 0.121], ["2022-11-16", 0.121], ["2022-11-24", 0.124], ["2022-11-25", 0.124], ["2022-11-25", 0.123], ["2022-11-26", 0.123], ["2022-12-02", 0.118], ["2022-12-02", 0.118], ["2022-12-06", 0.123], ["2022-12-06", 0.123], ["2022-12-06", 0.125], ["2022-12-07", 0.125], ["2022-12-08", 0.125], ["2022-12-14", 0.124], ["2022-12-14", 0.124], ["2022-12-16", 0.121], ["2022-12-16", 0.12], ["2022-12-16", 0.116], ["2022-12-17", 0.116], ["2022-12-25", 0.113], ["2022-12-25", 0.112], ["2022-12-25", 0.112], ["2022-12-26", 0.11], ["2022-12-26", 0.109], ["2022-12-26", 0.109], ["2022-12-27", 0.108], ["2022-12-27", 0.125], ["2022-12-27", 0.11], ["2022-12-28", 0.109], ["2022-12-28", 0.104], ["2022-12-29", 0.104], ["2022-12-30", 0.103], ["2022-12-30", 0.103], ["2022-12-30", 0.101], ["2022-12-30", 0.092]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11756/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Iranian Rial (IRR) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-28 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.105], ["2022-07-13", 0.105], ["2022-07-13", 0.156], ["2022-07-13", 0.199], ["2022-07-14", 0.24], ["2022-07-15", 0.24], ["2022-07-15", 0.28], ["2022-07-17", 0.28], ["2022-07-20", 0.269], ["2022-07-21", 0.27], ["2022-07-22", 0.27], ["2022-07-22", 0.25], ["2022-07-23", 0.247], ["2022-07-23", 0.244], ["2022-07-23", 0.253], ["2022-07-23", 0.253], ["2022-07-23", 0.235], ["2022-07-24", 0.229], ["2022-07-24", 0.229], ["2022-07-24", 0.229], ["2022-07-24", 0.251], ["2022-07-24", 0.251], ["2022-07-25", 0.247], ["2022-07-26", 0.245], ["2022-07-27", 0.244], ["2022-07-31", 0.255], ["2022-08-01", 0.247], ["2022-08-03", 0.236], ["2022-08-04", 0.233], ["2022-08-04", 0.228], ["2022-08-05", 0.232], ["2022-08-05", 0.232], ["2022-08-13", 0.232], ["2022-08-18", 0.232], ["2022-08-29", 0.234], ["2022-08-31", 0.234], ["2022-09-09", 0.234], ["2022-09-09", 0.232], ["2022-09-11", 0.231], ["2022-09-11", 0.227], ["2022-09-12", 0.235], ["2022-09-13", 0.238], ["2022-09-21", 0.238], ["2022-10-01", 0.231], ["2022-10-06", 0.231], ["2022-10-09", 0.232], ["2022-10-09", 0.232], ["2022-10-10", 0.226], ["2022-10-12", 0.227], ["2022-10-12", 0.227], ["2022-10-12", 0.233], ["2022-10-13", 0.234], ["2022-10-13", 0.237], ["2022-10-14", 0.237], ["2022-10-14", 0.242], ["2022-10-16", 0.242], ["2022-10-16", 0.243], ["2022-10-20", 0.239], ["2022-10-22", 0.238], ["2022-10-25", 0.238], ["2022-10-25", 0.238], ["2022-10-25", 0.238], ["2022-10-26", 0.238], ["2022-10-27", 0.262], ["2022-10-27", 0.263], ["2022-10-27", 0.288], ["2022-10-27", 0.313], ["2022-10-27", 0.313], ["2022-10-27", 0.36], ["2022-10-27", 0.386], ["2022-10-27", 0.386], ["2022-10-27", 0.377]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11757/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Egyptian Pound (£E) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-13", 0.056], ["2022-07-13", 0.127], ["2022-07-14", 0.127], ["2022-07-15", 0.136], ["2022-07-15", 0.128], ["2022-07-17", 0.161], ["2022-07-19", 0.153], ["2022-07-19", 0.153], ["2022-07-20", 0.142], ["2022-07-22", 0.142], ["2022-07-22", 0.136], ["2022-07-22", 0.135], ["2022-07-23", 0.135], ["2022-07-23", 0.132], ["2022-07-24", 0.127], ["2022-07-24", 0.127], ["2022-07-24", 0.134], ["2022-07-25", 0.135], ["2022-07-27", 0.135], ["2022-07-31", 0.135], ["2022-07-31", 0.153], ["2022-08-01", 0.155], ["2022-08-03", 0.159], ["2022-08-03", 0.159], ["2022-08-04", 0.151], ["2022-08-04", 0.142], ["2022-08-05", 0.139], ["2022-08-05", 0.139], ["2022-08-07", 0.138], ["2022-08-13", 0.136], ["2022-08-18", 0.136], ["2022-08-29", 0.136], ["2022-08-30", 0.135], ["2022-08-31", 0.135], ["2022-09-01", 0.133], ["2022-09-09", 0.133], ["2022-09-11", 0.131], ["2022-09-12", 0.128], ["2022-09-22", 0.135], ["2022-10-01", 0.135], ["2022-10-08", 0.135], ["2022-10-09", 0.133], ["2022-10-09", 0.132], ["2022-10-10", 0.132], ["2022-10-12", 0.122], ["2022-10-12", 0.119], ["2022-10-12", 0.119], ["2022-10-13", 0.12], ["2022-10-14", 0.121], ["2022-10-14", 0.122], ["2022-10-14", 0.122], ["2022-10-16", 0.128], ["2022-10-16", 0.127], ["2022-10-16", 0.127], ["2022-10-20", 0.127], ["2022-10-25", 0.123], ["2022-10-25", 0.124], ["2022-10-27", 0.123], ["2022-10-27", 0.129], ["2022-10-27", 0.129], ["2022-10-28", 0.133], ["2022-10-29", 0.132], ["2022-10-29", 0.132], ["2022-10-30", 0.132], ["2022-11-01", 0.128], ["2022-11-01", 0.128], ["2022-11-09", 0.127], ["2022-11-09", 0.127], ["2022-11-10", 0.126], ["2022-11-12", 0.126], ["2022-11-15", 0.127], ["2022-11-25", 0.127], ["2022-11-25", 0.126], ["2022-11-26", 0.123], ["2022-12-02", 0.123], ["2022-12-06", 0.121], ["2022-12-06", 0.122], ["2022-12-06", 0.121], ["2022-12-06", 0.121], ["2022-12-07", 0.12], ["2022-12-07", 0.119], ["2022-12-07", 0.119], ["2022-12-14", 0.118], ["2022-12-14", 0.118], ["2022-12-25", 0.115], ["2022-12-25", 0.115], ["2022-12-26", 0.113], ["2022-12-26", 0.112], ["2022-12-27", 0.111], ["2022-12-28", 0.111], ["2022-12-28", 0.11], ["2022-12-28", 0.108], ["2022-12-28", 0.106], ["2022-12-30", 0.106], ["2022-12-30", 0.096], ["2022-12-30", 0.095], ["2022-12-30", 0.095], ["2022-12-30", 0.094], ["2022-12-30", 0.094]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11758/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Indian Rupee (₹) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.09], ["2022-07-14", 0.266], ["2022-07-15", 0.3], ["2022-07-16", 0.294], ["2022-07-17", 0.311], ["2022-07-20", 0.293], ["2022-07-20", 0.287], ["2022-07-22", 0.343], ["2022-07-23", 0.369], ["2022-07-24", 0.468], ["2022-07-26", 0.461], ["2022-07-27", 0.458], ["2022-08-04", 0.458], ["2022-08-05", 0.497], ["2022-08-13", 0.504], ["2022-08-14", 0.521], ["2022-08-18", 0.529], ["2022-08-21", 0.512], ["2022-08-21", 0.512], ["2022-08-29", 0.51], ["2022-08-31", 0.514], ["2022-08-31", 0.51], ["2022-09-02", 0.506], ["2022-09-08", 0.506], ["2022-09-09", 0.515], ["2022-09-11", 0.532], ["2022-09-12", 0.531], ["2022-09-14", 0.533], ["2022-09-15", 0.54], ["2022-09-19", 0.542], ["2022-09-21", 0.542], ["2022-09-22", 0.572], ["2022-09-23", 0.574], ["2022-10-01", 0.577], ["2022-10-08", 0.565], ["2022-10-09", 0.568], ["2022-10-10", 0.561], ["2022-10-11", 0.547], ["2022-10-13", 0.524], ["2022-10-14", 0.523], ["2022-10-15", 0.519], ["2022-10-16", 0.511], ["2022-10-20", 0.508], ["2022-10-20", 0.511], ["2022-10-22", 0.513], ["2022-10-23", 0.513], ["2022-10-24", 0.512], ["2022-10-26", 0.508], ["2022-10-26", 0.51], ["2022-10-27", 0.507], ["2022-10-29", 0.482], ["2022-10-30", 0.482], ["2022-10-31", 0.482], ["2022-11-01", 0.481], ["2022-11-03", 0.479], ["2022-11-05", 0.478], ["2022-11-05", 0.479], ["2022-11-07", 0.476], ["2022-11-09", 0.475], ["2022-11-10", 0.476], ["2022-11-11", 0.466], ["2022-11-12", 0.466], ["2022-11-14", 0.466], ["2022-11-15", 0.465], ["2022-11-15", 0.47], ["2022-11-17", 0.468], ["2022-11-22", 0.468], ["2022-11-23", 0.474], ["2022-11-24", 0.473], ["2022-11-25", 0.472], ["2022-11-25", 0.472], ["2022-11-27", 0.47], ["2022-11-28", 0.468], ["2022-11-29", 0.466], ["2022-11-30", 0.466], ["2022-12-01", 0.466], ["2022-12-02", 0.466], ["2022-12-03", 0.457], ["2022-12-04", 0.458], ["2022-12-06", 0.458], ["2022-12-06", 0.452], ["2022-12-08", 0.45], ["2022-12-09", 0.445], ["2022-12-10", 0.445], ["2022-12-12", 0.445], ["2022-12-13", 0.445], ["2022-12-14", 0.442], ["2022-12-15", 0.435], ["2022-12-17", 0.419], ["2022-12-18", 0.411], ["2022-12-18", 0.41], ["2022-12-20", 0.41], ["2022-12-22", 0.406], ["2022-12-22", 0.406], ["2022-12-23", 0.404], ["2022-12-24", 0.399], ["2022-12-25", 0.393], ["2022-12-27", 0.373], ["2022-12-28", 0.34], ["2022-12-30", 0.325], ["2022-12-30", 0.272]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11759/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Pakistani Rupee (₨) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.01], ["2022-07-13", 0.224], ["2022-07-14", 0.246], ["2022-07-15", 0.246], ["2022-07-15", 0.247], ["2022-07-16", 0.276], ["2022-07-17", 0.259], ["2022-07-17", 0.258], ["2022-07-20", 0.24], ["2022-07-20", 0.234], ["2022-07-22", 0.298], ["2022-07-22", 0.218], ["2022-07-23", 0.217], ["2022-07-23", 0.212], ["2022-07-24", 0.215], ["2022-07-24", 0.21], ["2022-07-25", 0.21], ["2022-07-27", 0.21], ["2022-07-31", 0.21], ["2022-08-01", 0.225], ["2022-08-03", 0.212], ["2022-08-04", 0.199], ["2022-08-05", 0.215], ["2022-08-05", 0.215], ["2022-08-13", 0.211], ["2022-08-15", 0.211], ["2022-08-18", 0.211], ["2022-08-31", 0.211], ["2022-09-09", 0.209], ["2022-09-11", 0.209], ["2022-09-12", 0.208], ["2022-09-22", 0.207], ["2022-09-22", 0.208], ["2022-09-29", 0.203], ["2022-09-29", 0.202], ["2022-09-30", 0.202], ["2022-09-30", 0.201], ["2022-10-01", 0.196], ["2022-10-06", 0.207], ["2022-10-08", 0.203], ["2022-10-09", 0.201], ["2022-10-09", 0.201], ["2022-10-09", 0.206], ["2022-10-10", 0.206], ["2022-10-10", 0.195], ["2022-10-12", 0.195], ["2022-10-12", 0.187], ["2022-10-13", 0.187], ["2022-10-14", 0.192], ["2022-10-15", 0.193], ["2022-10-15", 0.201], ["2022-10-16", 0.202], ["2022-10-16", 0.202], ["2022-10-20", 0.193], ["2022-10-23", 0.194], ["2022-10-24", 0.194], ["2022-10-25", 0.194], ["2022-10-25", 0.193], ["2022-10-27", 0.195], ["2022-10-28", 0.197], ["2022-10-28", 0.197], ["2022-10-29", 0.196], ["2022-11-01", 0.195], ["2022-11-03", 0.195], ["2022-11-05", 0.194], ["2022-11-09", 0.194], ["2022-11-09", 0.193], ["2022-11-10", 0.193], ["2022-11-10", 0.187], ["2022-11-12", 0.187], ["2022-11-14", 0.187], ["2022-11-16", 0.187], ["2022-11-18", 0.187], ["2022-11-25", 0.188], ["2022-11-25", 0.188], ["2022-11-26", 0.183], ["2022-11-27", 0.183], ["2022-11-28", 0.18], ["2022-11-29", 0.179], ["2022-12-02", 0.174], ["2022-12-02", 0.175], ["2022-12-06", 0.175], ["2022-12-06", 0.174], ["2022-12-07", 0.174], ["2022-12-14", 0.173], ["2022-12-16", 0.173], ["2022-12-16", 0.178], ["2022-12-18", 0.177], ["2022-12-18", 0.178], ["2022-12-23", 0.178], ["2022-12-23", 0.177], ["2022-12-25", 0.177], ["2022-12-25", 0.171], ["2022-12-26", 0.171], ["2022-12-26", 0.158], ["2022-12-28", 0.156], ["2022-12-28", 0.154], ["2022-12-28", 0.146], ["2022-12-29", 0.143], ["2022-12-30", 0.142], ["2022-12-30", 0.11]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11760/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Bangladeshi Taka (৳) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
Subsets and Splits