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2022-12-31 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.535], ["2022-07-13", 0.467], ["2022-07-15", 0.478], ["2022-07-15", 0.479], ["2022-07-16", 0.571], ["2022-07-16", 0.576], ["2022-07-17", 0.572], ["2022-07-17", 0.581], ["2022-07-20", 0.542], ["2022-07-22", 0.542], ["2022-07-22", 0.498], ["2022-07-23", 0.47], ["2022-07-23", 0.387], ["2022-07-24", 0.375], ["2022-07-24", 0.389], ["2022-07-25", 0.421], ["2022-07-26", 0.421], ["2022-07-27", 0.418], ["2022-07-30", 0.418], ["2022-07-31", 0.407], ["2022-08-01", 0.403], ["2022-08-03", 0.393], ["2022-08-04", 0.396], ["2022-08-05", 0.396], ["2022-08-05", 0.39], ["2022-08-07", 0.386], ["2022-08-11", 0.386], ["2022-08-13", 0.379], ["2022-08-18", 0.379], ["2022-08-26", 0.381], ["2022-08-29", 0.38], ["2022-08-31", 0.38], ["2022-09-11", 0.375], ["2022-09-12", 0.378], ["2022-09-19", 0.377], ["2022-09-20", 0.376], ["2022-09-21", 0.376], ["2022-09-21", 0.365], ["2022-09-22", 0.365], ["2022-09-23", 0.363], ["2022-10-01", 0.357], ["2022-10-08", 0.357], ["2022-10-09", 0.351], ["2022-10-10", 0.333], ["2022-10-11", 0.334], ["2022-10-11", 0.333], ["2022-10-12", 0.327], ["2022-10-12", 0.321], ["2022-10-13", 0.321], ["2022-10-14", 0.323], ["2022-10-15", 0.323], ["2022-10-16", 0.324], ["2022-10-16", 0.323], ["2022-10-20", 0.323], ["2022-10-20", 0.323], ["2022-10-21", 0.323], ["2022-10-25", 0.322], ["2022-10-26", 0.319], ["2022-10-27", 0.318], ["2022-10-28", 0.314], ["2022-10-31", 0.314], ["2022-11-01", 0.314], ["2022-11-10", 0.311], ["2022-11-10", 0.308], ["2022-11-11", 0.307], ["2022-11-11", 0.307], ["2022-11-12", 0.306], ["2022-11-15", 0.311], ["2022-11-21", 0.311], ["2022-11-24", 0.311], ["2022-11-24", 0.305], ["2022-11-25", 0.305], ["2022-11-26", 0.305], ["2022-11-27", 0.296], ["2022-11-28", 0.295], ["2022-11-29", 0.294], ["2022-11-30", 0.294], ["2022-11-30", 0.294], ["2022-12-02", 0.294], ["2022-12-06", 0.287], ["2022-12-06", 0.286], ["2022-12-07", 0.284], ["2022-12-08", 0.284], ["2022-12-08", 0.284], ["2022-12-09", 0.278], ["2022-12-10", 0.278], ["2022-12-14", 0.278], ["2022-12-15", 0.278], ["2022-12-16", 0.278], ["2022-12-16", 0.274], ["2022-12-18", 0.268], ["2022-12-25", 0.263], ["2022-12-25", 0.26], ["2022-12-26", 0.251], ["2022-12-26", 0.25], ["2022-12-28", 0.244], ["2022-12-28", 0.23], ["2022-12-28", 0.229], ["2022-12-29", 0.228], ["2022-12-30", 0.224], ["2022-12-30", 0.197]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11761/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Nigerian Naira (₦) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-05", 0.125], ["2022-07-06", 0.183], ["2022-07-06", 0.183], ["2022-07-06", 0.165], ["2022-07-06", 0.202], ["2022-07-06", 0.22], ["2022-07-06", 0.208], ["2022-07-06", 0.217], ["2022-07-06", 0.204], ["2022-07-07", 0.204], ["2022-07-07", 0.197], ["2022-07-07", 0.227], ["2022-07-07", 0.232], ["2022-07-07", 0.225], ["2022-07-07", 0.227], ["2022-07-07", 0.229], ["2022-07-07", 0.228], ["2022-07-08", 0.228], ["2022-07-08", 0.238], ["2022-07-08", 0.238], ["2022-07-08", 0.24], ["2022-07-08", 0.243], ["2022-07-08", 0.256], ["2022-07-08", 0.255], ["2022-07-08", 0.255], ["2022-07-09", 0.255], ["2022-07-09", 0.261], ["2022-07-09", 0.267], ["2022-07-09", 0.204], ["2022-07-09", 0.158], ["2022-07-09", 0.13], ["2022-07-09", 0.121], ["2022-07-09", 0.085], ["2022-07-10", 0.085], ["2022-07-10", 0.089], ["2022-07-10", 0.086], ["2022-07-10", 0.086], ["2022-07-10", 0.084], ["2022-07-10", 0.068], ["2022-07-10", 0.066], ["2022-07-11", 0.066], ["2022-07-11", 0.073], ["2022-07-11", 0.066], ["2022-07-11", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.064], ["2022-07-13", 0.059], ["2022-07-13", 0.057], ["2022-07-13", 0.054], ["2022-07-13", 0.054], ["2022-07-14", 0.052], ["2022-07-14", 0.052], ["2022-07-14", 0.051], ["2022-07-14", 0.05], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-15", 0.048], ["2022-07-15", 0.047], ["2022-07-15", 0.047], ["2022-07-16", 0.052], ["2022-07-18", 0.052], ["2022-07-18", 0.052], ["2022-07-19", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.049], ["2022-07-20", 0.048], ["2022-07-20", 0.047], ["2022-07-20", 0.043], ["2022-07-23", 0.043], ["2022-07-24", 0.042], ["2022-07-26", 0.041], ["2022-07-26", 0.041], ["2022-07-26", 0.04], ["2022-07-27", 0.04], ["2022-07-29", 0.04], ["2022-07-31", 0.041], ["2022-08-02", 0.04], ["2022-08-02", 0.04], ["2022-08-02", 0.036], ["2022-08-03", 0.036], ["2022-08-03", 0.035], ["2022-08-03", 0.035], ["2022-08-03", 0.035], ["2022-08-03", 0.034], ["2022-08-03", 0.034], ["2022-08-05", 0.033], ["2022-08-05", 0.033], ["2022-08-07", 0.033], ["2022-08-07", 0.033], ["2022-08-10", 0.033], ["2022-08-12", 0.032], ["2022-08-18", 0.032], ["2022-08-25", 0.032], ["2022-08-31", 0.032], ["2022-09-05", 0.032], ["2022-09-05", 0.032]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11762/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Ben Wallace win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-06 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-06", 0.05], ["2022-07-06", 0.252], ["2022-07-07", 0.252], ["2022-07-07", 0.227], ["2022-07-07", 0.206], ["2022-07-07", 0.206], ["2022-07-07", 0.16], ["2022-07-07", 0.154], ["2022-07-07", 0.154], ["2022-07-07", 0.138], ["2022-07-07", 0.138], ["2022-07-07", 0.133], ["2022-07-08", 0.123], ["2022-07-08", 0.122], ["2022-07-08", 0.122], ["2022-07-08", 0.118], ["2022-07-08", 0.11], ["2022-07-08", 0.11], ["2022-07-08", 0.108], ["2022-07-09", 0.106], ["2022-07-09", 0.106], ["2022-07-09", 0.11], ["2022-07-09", 0.102], ["2022-07-09", 0.102], ["2022-07-10", 0.098], ["2022-07-10", 0.095], ["2022-07-10", 0.095], ["2022-07-10", 0.087], ["2022-07-10", 0.084], ["2022-07-10", 0.084], ["2022-07-10", 0.08], ["2022-07-10", 0.08], ["2022-07-10", 0.078], ["2022-07-11", 0.072], ["2022-07-11", 0.069], ["2022-07-11", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.06], ["2022-07-11", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.066], ["2022-07-12", 0.067], ["2022-07-12", 0.063], ["2022-07-12", 0.061], ["2022-07-13", 0.061], ["2022-07-13", 0.06], ["2022-07-13", 0.058], ["2022-07-13", 0.062], ["2022-07-13", 0.06], ["2022-07-13", 0.049], ["2022-07-13", 0.048], ["2022-07-14", 0.047], ["2022-07-14", 0.046], ["2022-07-14", 0.046], ["2022-07-14", 0.045], ["2022-07-14", 0.045], ["2022-07-14", 0.045], ["2022-07-14", 0.044], ["2022-07-15", 0.037], ["2022-07-15", 0.036], ["2022-07-15", 0.035], ["2022-07-15", 0.034], ["2022-07-15", 0.033], ["2022-07-16", 0.032], ["2022-07-18", 0.032], ["2022-07-18", 0.032], ["2022-07-19", 0.031], ["2022-07-20", 0.031], ["2022-07-20", 0.031], ["2022-07-20", 0.03], ["2022-07-20", 0.03], ["2022-07-20", 0.03], ["2022-07-23", 0.029], ["2022-07-24", 0.029], ["2022-07-26", 0.029], ["2022-07-26", 0.028], ["2022-07-26", 0.028], ["2022-07-27", 0.028], ["2022-07-29", 0.028], ["2022-07-31", 0.029], ["2022-08-01", 0.028], ["2022-08-02", 0.028], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-03", 0.021], ["2022-08-03", 0.021], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-05", 0.02], ["2022-08-07", 0.02], ["2022-08-07", 0.02], ["2022-08-10", 0.02], ["2022-08-12", 0.02], ["2022-08-18", 0.019], ["2022-08-25", 0.019], ["2022-08-31", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11771/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Nadhim Zahawi win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-07", 0.07], ["2022-07-07", 0.048], ["2022-07-07", 0.065], ["2022-07-07", 0.117], ["2022-07-07", 0.11], ["2022-07-07", 0.11], ["2022-07-07", 0.1], ["2022-07-07", 0.094], ["2022-07-07", 0.094], ["2022-07-07", 0.084], ["2022-07-08", 0.084], ["2022-07-08", 0.076], ["2022-07-08", 0.079], ["2022-07-08", 0.079], ["2022-07-08", 0.077], ["2022-07-08", 0.07], ["2022-07-08", 0.045], ["2022-07-08", 0.045], ["2022-07-09", 0.043], ["2022-07-09", 0.041], ["2022-07-09", 0.038], ["2022-07-09", 0.038], ["2022-07-09", 0.041], ["2022-07-09", 0.036], ["2022-07-09", 0.036], ["2022-07-09", 0.035], ["2022-07-09", 0.033], ["2022-07-09", 0.032], ["2022-07-09", 0.027], ["2022-07-09", 0.027], ["2022-07-09", 0.026], ["2022-07-09", 0.021], ["2022-07-09", 0.018], ["2022-07-09", 0.018], ["2022-07-09", 0.018], ["2022-07-10", 0.017], ["2022-07-10", 0.017], ["2022-07-10", 0.016], ["2022-07-10", 0.016], ["2022-07-11", 0.016], ["2022-07-11", 0.016], ["2022-07-11", 0.016], ["2022-07-11", 0.016], ["2022-07-11", 0.016], ["2022-07-11", 0.016], ["2022-07-12", 0.015], ["2022-07-12", 0.015], ["2022-07-12", 0.031], ["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.029], ["2022-07-13", 0.029], ["2022-07-13", 0.028], ["2022-07-13", 0.028], ["2022-07-13", 0.028], ["2022-07-14", 0.028], ["2022-07-14", 0.027], ["2022-07-14", 0.027], ["2022-07-14", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-16", 0.025], ["2022-07-18", 0.025], ["2022-07-18", 0.025], ["2022-07-19", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.025], ["2022-07-20", 0.025], ["2022-07-20", 0.025], ["2022-07-20", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.024], ["2022-07-21", 0.024], ["2022-07-23", 0.024], ["2022-07-24", 0.023], ["2022-07-26", 0.023], ["2022-07-26", 0.023], ["2022-07-26", 0.023], ["2022-07-27", 0.023], ["2022-07-29", 0.023], ["2022-07-31", 0.023], ["2022-08-02", 0.023], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-03", 0.021], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-05", 0.019], ["2022-08-05", 0.019], ["2022-08-07", 0.019], ["2022-08-07", 0.019], ["2022-08-10", 0.019], ["2022-08-12", 0.019], ["2022-08-18", 0.018], ["2022-08-25", 0.018], ["2022-08-31", 0.018], ["2022-09-05", 0.018], ["2022-09-05", 0.018]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11776/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Steve Baker win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-07", 0.055], ["2022-07-07", 0.157], ["2022-07-07", 0.146], ["2022-07-07", 0.099], ["2022-07-07", 0.092], ["2022-07-07", 0.092], ["2022-07-07", 0.079], ["2022-07-08", 0.069], ["2022-07-08", 0.069], ["2022-07-08", 0.066], ["2022-07-08", 0.065], ["2022-07-08", 0.062], ["2022-07-08", 0.062], ["2022-07-08", 0.058], ["2022-07-08", 0.055], ["2022-07-09", 0.055], ["2022-07-09", 0.055], ["2022-07-09", 0.035], ["2022-07-09", 0.032], ["2022-07-09", 0.031], ["2022-07-09", 0.03], ["2022-07-09", 0.029], ["2022-07-09", 0.026], ["2022-07-10", 0.025], ["2022-07-10", 0.025], ["2022-07-10", 0.025], ["2022-07-10", 0.025], ["2022-07-10", 0.024], ["2022-07-10", 0.022], ["2022-07-10", 0.022], ["2022-07-11", 0.022], ["2022-07-11", 0.021], ["2022-07-11", 0.022], ["2022-07-11", 0.021], ["2022-07-11", 0.021], ["2022-07-11", 0.021], ["2022-07-11", 0.02], ["2022-07-12", 0.02], ["2022-07-12", 0.02], ["2022-07-12", 0.02], ["2022-07-12", 0.018], ["2022-07-12", 0.032], ["2022-07-12", 0.032], ["2022-07-13", 0.031], ["2022-07-13", 0.031], ["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.03], ["2022-07-13", 0.029], ["2022-07-13", 0.028], ["2022-07-14", 0.028], ["2022-07-14", 0.028], ["2022-07-14", 0.027], ["2022-07-14", 0.027], ["2022-07-15", 0.027], ["2022-07-15", 0.027], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.025], ["2022-07-15", 0.025], ["2022-07-16", 0.025], ["2022-07-18", 0.024], ["2022-07-18", 0.024], ["2022-07-19", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-21", 0.023], ["2022-07-23", 0.022], ["2022-07-24", 0.022], ["2022-07-26", 0.022], ["2022-07-26", 0.022], ["2022-07-26", 0.021], ["2022-07-27", 0.021], ["2022-07-29", 0.023], ["2022-07-29", 0.023], ["2022-07-31", 0.023], ["2022-08-01", 0.021], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-02", 0.02], ["2022-08-02", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.019], ["2022-08-03", 0.019], ["2022-08-03", 0.019], ["2022-08-03", 0.019], ["2022-08-03", 0.019], ["2022-08-05", 0.016], ["2022-08-07", 0.016], ["2022-08-07", 0.016], ["2022-08-10", 0.016], ["2022-08-12", 0.016], ["2022-08-18", 0.016], ["2022-08-18", 0.016], ["2022-08-25", 0.016], ["2022-08-31", 0.016], ["2022-09-05", 0.016], ["2022-09-05", 0.016]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11777/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Dominic Raab win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-07", 0.01], ["2022-07-07", 0.117], ["2022-07-07", 0.11], ["2022-07-08", 0.091], ["2022-07-08", 0.084], ["2022-07-08", 0.084], ["2022-07-08", 0.079], ["2022-07-08", 0.069], ["2022-07-08", 0.065], ["2022-07-08", 0.062], ["2022-07-09", 0.059], ["2022-07-09", 0.054], ["2022-07-09", 0.054], ["2022-07-09", 0.054], ["2022-07-09", 0.05], ["2022-07-09", 0.048], ["2022-07-09", 0.056], ["2022-07-09", 0.054], ["2022-07-10", 0.053], ["2022-07-10", 0.054], ["2022-07-10", 0.052], ["2022-07-10", 0.057], ["2022-07-10", 0.055], ["2022-07-10", 0.055], ["2022-07-10", 0.055], ["2022-07-11", 0.053], ["2022-07-11", 0.052], ["2022-07-11", 0.051], ["2022-07-11", 0.047], ["2022-07-11", 0.045], ["2022-07-11", 0.042], ["2022-07-12", 0.042], ["2022-07-12", 0.041], ["2022-07-12", 0.04], ["2022-07-12", 0.051], ["2022-07-12", 0.05], ["2022-07-12", 0.047], ["2022-07-13", 0.041], ["2022-07-13", 0.041], ["2022-07-13", 0.039], ["2022-07-13", 0.039], ["2022-07-13", 0.037], ["2022-07-13", 0.035], ["2022-07-13", 0.034], ["2022-07-14", 0.034], ["2022-07-14", 0.033], ["2022-07-14", 0.032], ["2022-07-14", 0.032], ["2022-07-14", 0.032], ["2022-07-14", 0.031], ["2022-07-14", 0.031], ["2022-07-14", 0.031], ["2022-07-15", 0.024], ["2022-07-15", 0.023], ["2022-07-15", 0.023], ["2022-07-15", 0.023], ["2022-07-15", 0.021], ["2022-07-15", 0.021], ["2022-07-15", 0.021], ["2022-07-17", 0.021], ["2022-07-18", 0.021], ["2022-07-19", 0.02], ["2022-07-20", 0.02], ["2022-07-20", 0.02], ["2022-07-20", 0.02], ["2022-07-20", 0.02], ["2022-07-20", 0.019], ["2022-07-21", 0.019], ["2022-07-21", 0.019], ["2022-07-23", 0.019], ["2022-07-24", 0.019], ["2022-07-26", 0.019], ["2022-07-26", 0.019], ["2022-07-26", 0.019], ["2022-07-27", 0.019], ["2022-07-29", 0.019], ["2022-07-29", 0.019], ["2022-07-31", 0.02], ["2022-08-01", 0.019], ["2022-08-02", 0.018], ["2022-08-02", 0.017], ["2022-08-02", 0.017], ["2022-08-03", 0.017], ["2022-08-03", 0.017], ["2022-08-03", 0.017], ["2022-08-03", 0.016], ["2022-08-03", 0.016], ["2022-08-03", 0.016], ["2022-08-03", 0.016], ["2022-08-05", 0.016], ["2022-08-07", 0.015], ["2022-08-07", 0.015], ["2022-08-10", 0.015], ["2022-08-12", 0.015], ["2022-08-18", 0.015], ["2022-08-18", 0.016], ["2022-08-25", 0.016], ["2022-08-31", 0.016], ["2022-09-04", 0.016], ["2022-09-05", 0.016], ["2022-09-05", 0.016]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11778/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Suella Braverman win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-09 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-09", 0.065], ["2022-07-09", 0.08], ["2022-07-09", 0.095], ["2022-07-10", 0.105], ["2022-07-10", 0.099], ["2022-07-10", 0.098], ["2022-07-10", 0.098], ["2022-07-10", 0.098], ["2022-07-10", 0.087], ["2022-07-10", 0.087], ["2022-07-11", 0.08], ["2022-07-11", 0.075], ["2022-07-11", 0.075], ["2022-07-11", 0.07], ["2022-07-11", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.065], ["2022-07-12", 0.068], ["2022-07-12", 0.083], ["2022-07-12", 0.082], ["2022-07-13", 0.081], ["2022-07-13", 0.081], ["2022-07-13", 0.087], ["2022-07-13", 0.084], ["2022-07-13", 0.079], ["2022-07-13", 0.077], ["2022-07-14", 0.078], ["2022-07-14", 0.077], ["2022-07-14", 0.075], ["2022-07-14", 0.074], ["2022-07-14", 0.081], ["2022-07-14", 0.08], ["2022-07-14", 0.074], ["2022-07-15", 0.063], ["2022-07-15", 0.063], ["2022-07-15", 0.06], ["2022-07-15", 0.06], ["2022-07-15", 0.057], ["2022-07-15", 0.056], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-16", 0.055], ["2022-07-16", 0.054], ["2022-07-16", 0.054], ["2022-07-16", 0.056], ["2022-07-17", 0.071], ["2022-07-17", 0.071], ["2022-07-17", 0.074], ["2022-07-17", 0.074], ["2022-07-17", 0.074], ["2022-07-18", 0.074], ["2022-07-18", 0.074], ["2022-07-18", 0.076], ["2022-07-18", 0.068], ["2022-07-18", 0.069], ["2022-07-19", 0.068], ["2022-07-19", 0.069], ["2022-07-19", 0.069], ["2022-07-19", 0.052], ["2022-07-19", 0.048], ["2022-07-20", 0.046], ["2022-07-20", 0.044], ["2022-07-20", 0.044], ["2022-07-20", 0.043], ["2022-07-20", 0.041], ["2022-07-20", 0.04], ["2022-07-21", 0.039], ["2022-07-21", 0.038], ["2022-07-21", 0.038], ["2022-07-23", 0.037], ["2022-07-24", 0.037], ["2022-07-26", 0.036], ["2022-07-26", 0.036], ["2022-07-26", 0.036], ["2022-07-27", 0.036], ["2022-07-29", 0.036], ["2022-07-29", 0.036], ["2022-07-30", 0.033], ["2022-07-31", 0.033], ["2022-08-01", 0.026], ["2022-08-02", 0.026], ["2022-08-02", 0.026], ["2022-08-02", 0.026], ["2022-08-03", 0.025], ["2022-08-03", 0.025], ["2022-08-03", 0.025], ["2022-08-03", 0.024], ["2022-08-03", 0.024], ["2022-08-05", 0.024], ["2022-08-07", 0.024], ["2022-08-07", 0.024], ["2022-08-10", 0.024], ["2022-08-12", 0.024], ["2022-08-18", 0.023], ["2022-08-18", 0.023], ["2022-08-25", 0.023], ["2022-08-31", 0.023], ["2022-09-04", 0.022], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-05", 0.022]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11811/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Kemi Badenoch win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-11", 0.01], ["2022-07-11", 0.01], ["2022-07-11", 0.01], ["2022-07-11", 0.01], ["2022-07-11", 0.01], ["2022-07-11", 0.065], ["2022-07-11", 0.057], ["2022-07-11", 0.051], ["2022-07-11", 0.047], ["2022-07-11", 0.043], ["2022-07-11", 0.043], ["2022-07-11", 0.038], ["2022-07-11", 0.035], ["2022-07-11", 0.035], ["2022-07-11", 0.035], ["2022-07-11", 0.033], ["2022-07-12", 0.038], ["2022-07-12", 0.038], ["2022-07-12", 0.036], ["2022-07-12", 0.033], ["2022-07-12", 0.062], ["2022-07-12", 0.062], ["2022-07-12", 0.059], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.051], ["2022-07-13", 0.037], ["2022-07-13", 0.037], ["2022-07-13", 0.035], ["2022-07-13", 0.035], ["2022-07-13", 0.034], ["2022-07-13", 0.032], ["2022-07-13", 0.031], ["2022-07-14", 0.031], ["2022-07-14", 0.031], ["2022-07-14", 0.03], ["2022-07-14", 0.029], ["2022-07-14", 0.029], ["2022-07-15", 0.028], ["2022-07-15", 0.028], ["2022-07-15", 0.027], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-16", 0.026], ["2022-07-18", 0.025], ["2022-07-18", 0.024], ["2022-07-19", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-23", 0.023], ["2022-07-24", 0.022], ["2022-07-26", 0.022], ["2022-07-26", 0.022], ["2022-07-26", 0.022], ["2022-07-27", 0.021], ["2022-07-29", 0.021], ["2022-07-31", 0.023], ["2022-08-01", 0.021], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-02", 0.021], ["2022-08-03", 0.021], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-03", 0.02], ["2022-08-05", 0.02], ["2022-08-07", 0.02], ["2022-08-07", 0.019], ["2022-08-10", 0.019], ["2022-08-12", 0.019], ["2022-08-18", 0.019], ["2022-08-18", 0.019], ["2022-08-25", 0.019], ["2022-08-31", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11821/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Grant Shapps win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-11", 0.04], ["2022-07-11", 0.02], ["2022-07-11", 0.02], ["2022-07-11", 0.015], ["2022-07-11", 0.013], ["2022-07-11", 0.012], ["2022-07-11", 0.07], ["2022-07-11", 0.07], ["2022-07-11", 0.069], ["2022-07-11", 0.062], ["2022-07-11", 0.061], ["2022-07-11", 0.056], ["2022-07-11", 0.05], ["2022-07-11", 0.047], ["2022-07-11", 0.042], ["2022-07-11", 0.042], ["2022-07-11", 0.045], ["2022-07-12", 0.042], ["2022-07-12", 0.039], ["2022-07-12", 0.041], ["2022-07-12", 0.04], ["2022-07-12", 0.039], ["2022-07-12", 0.039], ["2022-07-12", 0.066], ["2022-07-12", 0.063], ["2022-07-12", 0.063], ["2022-07-12", 0.061], ["2022-07-12", 0.058], ["2022-07-12", 0.056], ["2022-07-12", 0.056], ["2022-07-12", 0.055], ["2022-07-12", 0.041], ["2022-07-12", 0.04], ["2022-07-13", 0.039], ["2022-07-13", 0.038], ["2022-07-13", 0.036], ["2022-07-13", 0.036], ["2022-07-13", 0.035], ["2022-07-13", 0.034], ["2022-07-13", 0.033], ["2022-07-13", 0.033], ["2022-07-13", 0.032], ["2022-07-13", 0.031], ["2022-07-14", 0.03], ["2022-07-14", 0.03], ["2022-07-14", 0.03], ["2022-07-14", 0.029], ["2022-07-14", 0.029], ["2022-07-14", 0.028], ["2022-07-15", 0.028], ["2022-07-15", 0.027], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-15", 0.026], ["2022-07-16", 0.025], ["2022-07-16", 0.025], ["2022-07-18", 0.024], ["2022-07-18", 0.024], ["2022-07-19", 0.024], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.023], ["2022-07-20", 0.022], ["2022-07-23", 0.022], ["2022-07-24", 0.022], ["2022-07-26", 0.021], ["2022-07-26", 0.021], ["2022-07-26", 0.021], ["2022-07-27", 0.021], ["2022-07-29", 0.023], ["2022-07-31", 0.022], ["2022-08-01", 0.022], ["2022-08-02", 0.024], ["2022-08-02", 0.024], ["2022-08-02", 0.024], ["2022-08-02", 0.025], ["2022-08-02", 0.023], ["2022-08-03", 0.023], ["2022-08-03", 0.023], ["2022-08-03", 0.023], ["2022-08-03", 0.023], ["2022-08-03", 0.022], ["2022-08-03", 0.022], ["2022-08-03", 0.022], ["2022-08-05", 0.022], ["2022-08-07", 0.022], ["2022-08-07", 0.022], ["2022-08-10", 0.022], ["2022-08-12", 0.022], ["2022-08-18", 0.021], ["2022-08-18", 0.021], ["2022-08-20", 0.021], ["2022-08-25", 0.018], ["2022-08-31", 0.018], ["2022-08-31", 0.018], ["2022-09-04", 0.018], ["2022-09-05", 0.018], ["2022-09-05", 0.018]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11822/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Sajid Javid win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-11 | 2022-07-12 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.8], ["2022-07-14", 0.8], ["2022-07-14", 0.8], ["2022-07-14", 0.835], ["2022-07-14", 0.607], ["2022-07-14", 0.702], ["2022-07-14", 0.702], ["2022-07-14", 0.707], ["2022-07-15", 0.73], ["2022-07-15", 0.73], ["2022-07-15", 0.751], ["2022-07-15", 0.751], ["2022-07-15", 0.752], ["2022-07-15", 0.752], ["2022-07-15", 0.751], ["2022-07-16", 0.75], ["2022-07-16", 0.75], ["2022-07-16", 0.751], ["2022-07-16", 0.781], ["2022-07-16", 0.797], ["2022-07-16", 0.797], ["2022-07-16", 0.797], ["2022-07-16", 0.797], ["2022-07-16", 0.781], ["2022-07-16", 0.781], ["2022-07-16", 0.781], ["2022-07-16", 0.781], ["2022-07-16", 0.797], ["2022-07-17", 0.801], ["2022-07-18", 0.813], ["2022-07-18", 0.815], ["2022-07-18", 0.818], ["2022-07-18", 0.817], ["2022-07-18", 0.819], ["2022-07-19", 0.837], ["2022-07-19", 0.837], ["2022-07-20", 0.802], ["2022-07-21", 0.802], ["2022-07-21", 0.817], ["2022-07-23", 0.825], ["2022-07-23", 0.833], ["2022-07-25", 0.839], ["2022-07-25", 0.839], ["2022-07-26", 0.83], ["2022-07-27", 0.83], ["2022-07-27", 0.835], ["2022-07-27", 0.829], ["2022-07-27", 0.829], ["2022-07-28", 0.834], ["2022-07-29", 0.836], ["2022-08-02", 0.843], ["2022-08-02", 0.841], ["2022-08-02", 0.843], ["2022-08-03", 0.842], ["2022-08-04", 0.845], ["2022-08-05", 0.849], ["2022-08-05", 0.849], ["2022-08-05", 0.851], ["2022-08-06", 0.855], ["2022-08-07", 0.855], ["2022-08-07", 0.857], ["2022-08-10", 0.859], ["2022-08-12", 0.859], ["2022-08-14", 0.857], ["2022-08-14", 0.861], ["2022-08-14", 0.891], ["2022-08-14", 0.891], ["2022-08-14", 0.893], ["2022-08-14", 0.893], ["2022-08-15", 0.897], ["2022-08-16", 0.896], ["2022-08-18", 0.896], ["2022-08-18", 0.897], ["2022-08-19", 0.897], ["2022-08-22", 0.897], ["2022-08-25", 0.897], ["2022-08-25", 0.896], ["2022-08-25", 0.896], ["2022-08-25", 0.896], ["2022-08-26", 0.895], ["2022-08-31", 0.895], ["2022-08-31", 0.895], ["2022-09-02", 0.9], ["2022-09-02", 0.9], ["2022-09-02", 0.9], ["2022-09-02", 0.902], ["2022-09-02", 0.905], ["2022-09-02", 0.908], ["2022-09-02", 0.908], ["2022-09-03", 0.914], ["2022-09-03", 0.914], ["2022-09-05", 0.916], ["2022-09-05", 0.921], ["2022-09-05", 0.921], ["2022-09-05", 0.926], ["2022-09-06", 0.927], ["2022-09-08", 0.929], ["2022-09-08", 0.93], ["2022-09-08", 0.934], ["2022-09-08", 0.934], ["2022-09-09", 0.934]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11834/ | The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election is a leadership election that will be held by the Conservative Party of Canada to elect the successor to Erin O'Toole. He was removed as leader on February 2, 2022, by the party's caucus in the House of Commons of Canada by a vote of 73–45. The leadership election will take place on September 10, 2022.
Pierre Poilievre is a candidate in this election, and as of early July 2022, polling of Conservative Party supporters indicates he has significantly more support than any other candidate in the race. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who wins the next Conservative Party leadership election (currently scheduled to be held on September 10, 2022) according to official statements by the Conservative Party of Canada. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; other candidates may be added in the future | true | 2022-09-09 | Will Pierre Poilievre win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-09-11 | 2022-07-12 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.015], ["2022-07-14", 0.06], ["2022-07-14", 0.138], ["2022-07-15", 0.138], ["2022-07-15", 0.18], ["2022-07-15", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.138], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.113], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.089], ["2022-07-18", 0.089], ["2022-07-20", 0.08], ["2022-07-21", 0.122], ["2022-07-23", 0.112], ["2022-07-25", 0.105], ["2022-07-25", 0.115], ["2022-07-26", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.115], ["2022-07-29", 0.114], ["2022-08-02", 0.106], ["2022-08-05", 0.1], ["2022-08-05", 0.1], ["2022-08-10", 0.093], ["2022-08-12", 0.093], ["2022-08-12", 0.089], ["2022-08-14", 0.084], ["2022-08-14", 0.072], ["2022-08-18", 0.072], ["2022-08-25", 0.072], ["2022-08-25", 0.065], ["2022-08-31", 0.065], ["2022-08-31", 0.062], ["2022-09-02", 0.06], ["2022-09-05", 0.057], ["2022-09-05", 0.055], ["2022-09-05", 0.055], ["2022-09-06", 0.051], ["2022-09-08", 0.051]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11835/ | The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election is a leadership election that will be held by the Conservative Party of Canada to elect the successor to Erin O'Toole. He was removed as leader on February 2, 2022, by the party's caucus in the House of Commons of Canada by a vote of 73–45. The leadership election will take place on September 10, 2022.
Pierre Poilievre is a candidate in this election, and as of early July 2022, polling of Conservative Party supporters indicates he has significantly more support than any other candidate in the race. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who wins the next Conservative Party leadership election (currently scheduled to be held on September 10, 2022) according to official statements by the Conservative Party of Canada. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; other candidates may be added in the future | true | 2022-09-09 | Will Scott Aitchison win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-11 | 2022-07-12 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.015], ["2022-07-14", 0.077], ["2022-07-14", 0.138], ["2022-07-15", 0.138], ["2022-07-15", 0.148], ["2022-07-15", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.157], ["2022-07-16", 0.138], ["2022-07-16", 0.138], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.113], ["2022-07-18", 0.089], ["2022-07-20", 0.08], ["2022-07-21", 0.124], ["2022-07-23", 0.114], ["2022-07-25", 0.106], ["2022-07-25", 0.114], ["2022-07-25", 0.107], ["2022-07-26", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.101], ["2022-07-27", 0.123], ["2022-07-29", 0.123], ["2022-08-02", 0.122], ["2022-08-05", 0.114], ["2022-08-05", 0.103], ["2022-08-10", 0.099], ["2022-08-12", 0.095], ["2022-08-14", 0.094], ["2022-08-14", 0.089], ["2022-08-14", 0.08], ["2022-08-14", 0.079], ["2022-08-14", 0.079], ["2022-08-15", 0.08], ["2022-08-18", 0.08], ["2022-08-25", 0.08], ["2022-08-25", 0.074], ["2022-08-30", 0.073], ["2022-08-31", 0.073], ["2022-08-31", 0.07], ["2022-09-02", 0.067], ["2022-09-03", 0.066], ["2022-09-05", 0.066], ["2022-09-05", 0.063], ["2022-09-05", 0.061], ["2022-09-05", 0.059], ["2022-09-06", 0.059], ["2022-09-07", 0.057], ["2022-09-08", 0.057], ["2022-09-08", 0.055], ["2022-09-08", 0.055], ["2022-09-08", 0.055], ["2022-09-08", 0.055]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11836/ | The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election is a leadership election that will be held by the Conservative Party of Canada to elect the successor to Erin O'Toole. He was removed as leader on February 2, 2022, by the party's caucus in the House of Commons of Canada by a vote of 73–45. The leadership election will take place on September 10, 2022.
Pierre Poilievre is a candidate in this election, and as of early July 2022, polling of Conservative Party supporters indicates he has significantly more support than any other candidate in the race. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who wins the next Conservative Party leadership election (currently scheduled to be held on September 10, 2022) according to official statements by the Conservative Party of Canada. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; other candidates may be added in the future | true | 2022-09-09 | Will Roman Baber win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-11 | 2022-07-12 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.14], ["2022-07-14", 0.14], ["2022-07-14", 0.14], ["2022-07-14", 0.13], ["2022-07-14", 0.11], ["2022-07-14", 0.178], ["2022-07-15", 0.182], ["2022-07-15", 0.182], ["2022-07-15", 0.184], ["2022-07-15", 0.186], ["2022-07-15", 0.187], ["2022-07-15", 0.184], ["2022-07-15", 0.187], ["2022-07-16", 0.186], ["2022-07-16", 0.187], ["2022-07-16", 0.172], ["2022-07-16", 0.155], ["2022-07-16", 0.155], ["2022-07-16", 0.123], ["2022-07-17", 0.123], ["2022-07-18", 0.12], ["2022-07-18", 0.119], ["2022-07-18", 0.117], ["2022-07-18", 0.106], ["2022-07-18", 0.105], ["2022-07-19", 0.104], ["2022-07-20", 0.149], ["2022-07-21", 0.169], ["2022-07-23", 0.169], ["2022-07-25", 0.152], ["2022-07-25", 0.152], ["2022-07-26", 0.155], ["2022-07-27", 0.155], ["2022-07-27", 0.151], ["2022-07-29", 0.151], ["2022-08-02", 0.149], ["2022-08-02", 0.145], ["2022-08-05", 0.139], ["2022-08-05", 0.139], ["2022-08-05", 0.137], ["2022-08-10", 0.119], ["2022-08-12", 0.119], ["2022-08-12", 0.117], ["2022-08-14", 0.149], ["2022-08-14", 0.141], ["2022-08-14", 0.143], ["2022-08-14", 0.14], ["2022-08-14", 0.133], ["2022-08-14", 0.133], ["2022-08-14", 0.13], ["2022-08-15", 0.131], ["2022-08-15", 0.131], ["2022-08-18", 0.131], ["2022-08-19", 0.125], ["2022-08-22", 0.104], ["2022-08-22", 0.103], ["2022-08-25", 0.1], ["2022-08-25", 0.1], ["2022-08-25", 0.097], ["2022-08-26", 0.096], ["2022-08-30", 0.096], ["2022-08-30", 0.088], ["2022-08-31", 0.096], ["2022-08-31", 0.096], ["2022-09-02", 0.092], ["2022-09-02", 0.09], ["2022-09-02", 0.09], ["2022-09-02", 0.083], ["2022-09-03", 0.083], ["2022-09-03", 0.08], ["2022-09-05", 0.078], ["2022-09-05", 0.076], ["2022-09-05", 0.073], ["2022-09-05", 0.07], ["2022-09-06", 0.07], ["2022-09-07", 0.069], ["2022-09-08", 0.068], ["2022-09-08", 0.068], ["2022-09-08", 0.067], ["2022-09-08", 0.065]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11837/ | The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election is a leadership election that will be held by the Conservative Party of Canada to elect the successor to Erin O'Toole. He was removed as leader on February 2, 2022, by the party's caucus in the House of Commons of Canada by a vote of 73–45. The leadership election will take place on September 10, 2022.
Pierre Poilievre is a candidate in this election, and as of early July 2022, polling of Conservative Party supporters indicates he has significantly more support than any other candidate in the race. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who wins the next Conservative Party leadership election (currently scheduled to be held on September 10, 2022) according to official statements by the Conservative Party of Canada. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; other candidates may be added in the future | true | 2022-09-09 | Will Jean Charest win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-11 | 2022-07-12 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-13", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.02], ["2022-07-14", 0.015], ["2022-07-14", 0.015], ["2022-07-14", 0.077], ["2022-07-14", 0.138], ["2022-07-15", 0.148], ["2022-07-15", 0.18], ["2022-07-15", 0.18], ["2022-07-16", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.156], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.113], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.114], ["2022-07-16", 0.089], ["2022-07-18", 0.089], ["2022-07-20", 0.08], ["2022-07-21", 0.105], ["2022-07-23", 0.098], ["2022-07-25", 0.091], ["2022-07-26", 0.088], ["2022-07-27", 0.088], ["2022-07-27", 0.082], ["2022-07-27", 0.094], ["2022-07-29", 0.094], ["2022-08-02", 0.086], ["2022-08-05", 0.086], ["2022-08-05", 0.086], ["2022-08-10", 0.086], ["2022-08-12", 0.079], ["2022-08-14", 0.075], ["2022-08-14", 0.075], ["2022-08-14", 0.062], ["2022-08-14", 0.06], ["2022-08-15", 0.061], ["2022-08-18", 0.061], ["2022-08-25", 0.058], ["2022-08-25", 0.056], ["2022-08-30", 0.057], ["2022-08-31", 0.057], ["2022-08-31", 0.054], ["2022-09-02", 0.052], ["2022-09-03", 0.052], ["2022-09-05", 0.052], ["2022-09-05", 0.049], ["2022-09-05", 0.047], ["2022-09-05", 0.046], ["2022-09-06", 0.046], ["2022-09-08", 0.044], ["2022-09-08", 0.043]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11838/ | The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election is a leadership election that will be held by the Conservative Party of Canada to elect the successor to Erin O'Toole. He was removed as leader on February 2, 2022, by the party's caucus in the House of Commons of Canada by a vote of 73–45. The leadership election will take place on September 10, 2022.
Pierre Poilievre is a candidate in this election, and as of early July 2022, polling of Conservative Party supporters indicates he has significantly more support than any other candidate in the race. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who wins the next Conservative Party leadership election (currently scheduled to be held on September 10, 2022) according to official statements by the Conservative Party of Canada. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; other candidates may be added in the future | true | 2022-09-09 | Will Leslyn Lewis win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-31 | 2022-07-13 | ["https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/pregnant-texas-woman-claiming-unborn-baby-hov-lane-hit-second-ticket-rcna45629", "https://www.kens5.com/article/news/local/plano-woman-fighting-hov-lane-ticket-gives-birth/287-a37c0a38-be19-4283-84ef-b8b0bdcd9965", "https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/pregnant-plano-woman-hov-court-date-postponed/287-b9565d89-a023-4f5d-bcdb-3d0ca99bcfb9", "https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2022/07/19/why-is-pregnant-hov-lane-protest-moms-court-date-postponed/", "https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2022/07/08/pregnant-woman-says-her-fetus-should-count-as-a-passenger-in-hov-lanes-she-got-a-ticket/"] | binary | [["2022-07-16", 0.55], ["2022-07-16", 0.525], ["2022-07-16", 0.617], ["2022-07-16", 0.613], ["2022-07-16", 0.56], ["2022-07-16", 0.548], ["2022-07-16", 0.548], ["2022-07-17", 0.54], ["2022-07-17", 0.51], ["2022-07-17", 0.484], ["2022-07-17", 0.487], ["2022-07-17", 0.487], ["2022-07-17", 0.473], ["2022-07-17", 0.473], ["2022-07-17", 0.447], ["2022-07-17", 0.435], ["2022-07-17", 0.459], ["2022-07-17", 0.451], ["2022-07-17", 0.45], ["2022-07-17", 0.448], ["2022-07-17", 0.448], ["2022-07-17", 0.44], ["2022-07-17", 0.44], ["2022-07-17", 0.445], ["2022-07-18", 0.434], ["2022-07-18", 0.434], ["2022-07-18", 0.432], ["2022-07-18", 0.432], ["2022-07-18", 0.428], ["2022-07-18", 0.421], ["2022-07-18", 0.412], ["2022-07-18", 0.412], ["2022-07-18", 0.414], ["2022-07-19", 0.431], ["2022-07-19", 0.431], ["2022-07-19", 0.433], ["2022-07-19", 0.428], ["2022-07-19", 0.428], ["2022-07-19", 0.44], ["2022-07-19", 0.446], ["2022-07-20", 0.446], ["2022-07-20", 0.45], ["2022-07-20", 0.45], ["2022-07-20", 0.464], ["2022-07-20", 0.461]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11847/ | Brandy Bottone, 32, of Plano, TX, was pulled over on June 29 by a police officer looking for HOV lane violators. Texas HOV lane rules require more than one occupant to be in a vehicle. Bottone told officers that under Texas law, in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned, a fetus counts as a person and was therefore the second occupant of the vehicle under the law.
Bottone plans to fight the ticket, which carries a potential penalty of $215. The trial date is set for July 20, 2022.
For more background: Local NBC News story | Politics & Governance | Resolves positively if Brandy Bottone pleads guilty, nolo contendere (no contest), or is found guilty per credible media reporting, regardless of sentence. Otherwise resolves negatively (for example if charges are dropped or she is found not guilty) | true | 2022-07-20 | Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-07-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-18", 0.72], ["2022-07-18", 0.71], ["2022-07-18", 0.712], ["2022-07-18", 0.676], ["2022-07-18", 0.681], ["2022-07-19", 0.681], ["2022-07-19", 0.679], ["2022-07-19", 0.681], ["2022-07-19", 0.711], ["2022-07-20", 0.696], ["2022-07-21", 0.701], ["2022-07-22", 0.702], ["2022-07-23", 0.704], ["2022-07-23", 0.705], ["2022-07-24", 0.705], ["2022-07-24", 0.705], ["2022-07-24", 0.731], ["2022-07-25", 0.733], ["2022-07-27", 0.736], ["2022-07-29", 0.733], ["2022-07-31", 0.736], ["2022-07-31", 0.739], ["2022-08-01", 0.756], ["2022-08-01", 0.758], ["2022-08-01", 0.764], ["2022-08-01", 0.774], ["2022-08-02", 0.776], ["2022-08-02", 0.782], ["2022-08-02", 0.79], ["2022-08-02", 0.787], ["2022-08-03", 0.787], ["2022-08-04", 0.79], ["2022-08-04", 0.785], ["2022-08-05", 0.786], ["2022-08-06", 0.786], ["2022-08-10", 0.79], ["2022-08-10", 0.794], ["2022-08-12", 0.795], ["2022-08-12", 0.799], ["2022-08-14", 0.802], ["2022-08-15", 0.8], ["2022-08-16", 0.801], ["2022-08-17", 0.809], ["2022-08-17", 0.816], ["2022-08-17", 0.816], ["2022-08-17", 0.817], ["2022-08-18", 0.817], ["2022-08-18", 0.817], ["2022-08-22", 0.805], ["2022-08-24", 0.805], ["2022-08-25", 0.805], ["2022-08-26", 0.806], ["2022-08-26", 0.805], ["2022-08-27", 0.81], ["2022-08-27", 0.817], ["2022-08-27", 0.817], ["2022-08-27", 0.818], ["2022-08-27", 0.818], ["2022-08-28", 0.821], ["2022-08-28", 0.823], ["2022-08-28", 0.823], ["2022-08-29", 0.841], ["2022-08-29", 0.846], ["2022-08-29", 0.857], ["2022-08-29", 0.864], ["2022-08-30", 0.866], ["2022-08-30", 0.869], ["2022-08-30", 0.871], ["2022-08-31", 0.873], ["2022-08-31", 0.872], ["2022-09-01", 0.874], ["2022-09-01", 0.877], ["2022-09-01", 0.88], ["2022-09-04", 0.881], ["2022-09-04", 0.887], ["2022-09-05", 0.889], ["2022-09-05", 0.892], ["2022-09-06", 0.893], ["2022-09-06", 0.893], ["2022-09-08", 0.895], ["2022-09-10", 0.898], ["2022-09-11", 0.899], ["2022-09-11", 0.902], ["2022-09-12", 0.902], ["2022-09-12", 0.912], ["2022-09-12", 0.912], ["2022-09-13", 0.913], ["2022-09-13", 0.914], ["2022-09-13", 0.916], ["2022-09-13", 0.919], ["2022-09-13", 0.919], ["2022-09-15", 0.919], ["2022-09-23", 0.92], ["2022-09-25", 0.921], ["2022-09-27", 0.921], ["2022-09-28", 0.921], ["2022-09-28", 0.922], ["2022-09-30", 0.922], ["2022-10-06", 0.922], ["2022-10-08", 0.922], ["2022-10-09", 0.925]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11872/ | The 2022 FIA Formula One World Championship is a championship series of motorsports racing. The series takes place over 22 events, finishing at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 20, 2022.
Drivers score points based on their relative finishing position in a race; the driver winning the most cumulative points in the series wins the Championship. Constructors (people or companies who design and build the cars) also compete for the World Constructor's Championship; this question is focused on the driver's Championship.
Max Verstappen won the 2021 Driver's Championship, his first in his career. As of July 15, 2022, he holds a lead in the 2022 Championship over current second-place driver Charles Leclerc. | Sports | The driver below will resolve as Yes if they are the winner of the 2022 FIA Formula One World Driver's Championship, according to FIA officials. All other drivers will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates below; more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If no winner is determined by FIA for the 2022 season, all options below will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-11-19 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-07-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-18", 0.23], ["2022-07-18", 0.227], ["2022-07-18", 0.227], ["2022-07-18", 0.225], ["2022-07-18", 0.239], ["2022-07-19", 0.239], ["2022-07-19", 0.225], ["2022-07-19", 0.227], ["2022-07-19", 0.223], ["2022-07-20", 0.221], ["2022-07-20", 0.221], ["2022-07-20", 0.219], ["2022-07-22", 0.25], ["2022-07-23", 0.248], ["2022-07-24", 0.248], ["2022-07-24", 0.236], ["2022-07-24", 0.235], ["2022-07-25", 0.232], ["2022-07-25", 0.229], ["2022-07-27", 0.229], ["2022-07-29", 0.237], ["2022-07-31", 0.237], ["2022-07-31", 0.226], ["2022-08-01", 0.221], ["2022-08-01", 0.214], ["2022-08-01", 0.217], ["2022-08-01", 0.21], ["2022-08-02", 0.207], ["2022-08-02", 0.207], ["2022-08-02", 0.205], ["2022-08-02", 0.2], ["2022-08-03", 0.187], ["2022-08-04", 0.187], ["2022-08-04", 0.189], ["2022-08-05", 0.189], ["2022-08-10", 0.184], ["2022-08-10", 0.181], ["2022-08-12", 0.181], ["2022-08-12", 0.175], ["2022-08-14", 0.174], ["2022-08-15", 0.174], ["2022-08-16", 0.17], ["2022-08-16", 0.172], ["2022-08-17", 0.17], ["2022-08-17", 0.163], ["2022-08-17", 0.164], ["2022-08-17", 0.162], ["2022-08-18", 0.164], ["2022-08-18", 0.163], ["2022-08-18", 0.163], ["2022-08-22", 0.163], ["2022-08-22", 0.17], ["2022-08-26", 0.171], ["2022-08-26", 0.18], ["2022-08-26", 0.18], ["2022-08-27", 0.18], ["2022-08-27", 0.174], ["2022-08-27", 0.167], ["2022-08-27", 0.166], ["2022-08-27", 0.163], ["2022-08-28", 0.163], ["2022-08-28", 0.16], ["2022-08-28", 0.162], ["2022-08-28", 0.16], ["2022-08-28", 0.159], ["2022-08-29", 0.131], ["2022-08-29", 0.127], ["2022-08-29", 0.127], ["2022-08-29", 0.121], ["2022-08-29", 0.118], ["2022-08-30", 0.117], ["2022-08-30", 0.112], ["2022-08-30", 0.111], ["2022-08-31", 0.111], ["2022-09-01", 0.109], ["2022-09-01", 0.109], ["2022-09-04", 0.105], ["2022-09-04", 0.095], ["2022-09-05", 0.095], ["2022-09-05", 0.094], ["2022-09-06", 0.092], ["2022-09-08", 0.091], ["2022-09-11", 0.089], ["2022-09-11", 0.089], ["2022-09-11", 0.087], ["2022-09-12", 0.078], ["2022-09-12", 0.076], ["2022-09-12", 0.075], ["2022-09-13", 0.075], ["2022-09-13", 0.075], ["2022-09-13", 0.07], ["2022-09-13", 0.074], ["2022-09-15", 0.074], ["2022-09-23", 0.073], ["2022-09-23", 0.072], ["2022-09-27", 0.072], ["2022-09-28", 0.072], ["2022-09-30", 0.071], ["2022-10-06", 0.071], ["2022-10-08", 0.071], ["2022-10-09", 0.068]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11873/ | The 2022 FIA Formula One World Championship is a championship series of motorsports racing. The series takes place over 22 events, finishing at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 20, 2022.
Drivers score points based on their relative finishing position in a race; the driver winning the most cumulative points in the series wins the Championship. Constructors (people or companies who design and build the cars) also compete for the World Constructor's Championship; this question is focused on the driver's Championship.
Max Verstappen won the 2021 Driver's Championship, his first in his career. As of July 15, 2022, he holds a lead in the 2022 Championship over current second-place driver Charles Leclerc. | Sports | The driver below will resolve as Yes if they are the winner of the 2022 FIA Formula One World Driver's Championship, according to FIA officials. All other drivers will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates below; more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If no winner is determined by FIA for the 2022 season, all options below will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-11-19 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-07-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-18", 0.02], ["2022-07-18", 0.02], ["2022-07-18", 0.023], ["2022-07-18", 0.02], ["2022-07-18", 0.017], ["2022-07-18", 0.017], ["2022-07-18", 0.046], ["2022-07-18", 0.046], ["2022-07-18", 0.042], ["2022-07-18", 0.051], ["2022-07-18", 0.051], ["2022-07-19", 0.055], ["2022-07-19", 0.054], ["2022-07-19", 0.05], ["2022-07-19", 0.05], ["2022-07-19", 0.05], ["2022-07-19", 0.049], ["2022-07-19", 0.047], ["2022-07-20", 0.047], ["2022-07-20", 0.044], ["2022-07-20", 0.062], ["2022-07-20", 0.061], ["2022-07-20", 0.061], ["2022-07-22", 0.057], ["2022-07-23", 0.056], ["2022-07-23", 0.053], ["2022-07-24", 0.053], ["2022-07-24", 0.05], ["2022-07-27", 0.049], ["2022-07-29", 0.048], ["2022-07-31", 0.048], ["2022-08-01", 0.048], ["2022-08-01", 0.04], ["2022-08-01", 0.04], ["2022-08-01", 0.039], ["2022-08-01", 0.038], ["2022-08-02", 0.038], ["2022-08-03", 0.036], ["2022-08-04", 0.036], ["2022-08-05", 0.036], ["2022-08-10", 0.037], ["2022-08-16", 0.037], ["2022-08-16", 0.035], ["2022-08-16", 0.033], ["2022-08-17", 0.033], ["2022-08-18", 0.033], ["2022-08-18", 0.033], ["2022-08-26", 0.032], ["2022-08-27", 0.031], ["2022-08-27", 0.03], ["2022-08-28", 0.029], ["2022-08-28", 0.029], ["2022-08-28", 0.029], ["2022-08-28", 0.028], ["2022-08-28", 0.031], ["2022-08-28", 0.031], ["2022-08-28", 0.03], ["2022-08-29", 0.033], ["2022-08-29", 0.031], ["2022-08-29", 0.031], ["2022-08-29", 0.032], ["2022-08-29", 0.031], ["2022-08-30", 0.03], ["2022-08-30", 0.03], ["2022-08-31", 0.03], ["2022-09-03", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.024], ["2022-09-05", 0.025], ["2022-09-06", 0.025], ["2022-09-07", 0.024], ["2022-09-08", 0.024], ["2022-09-08", 0.024], ["2022-09-11", 0.024], ["2022-09-11", 0.023], ["2022-09-11", 0.024], ["2022-09-11", 0.023], ["2022-09-11", 0.024], ["2022-09-12", 0.023], ["2022-09-13", 0.023], ["2022-09-13", 0.023], ["2022-09-13", 0.023], ["2022-09-13", 0.023], ["2022-09-23", 0.023], ["2022-09-27", 0.022], ["2022-09-28", 0.021], ["2022-09-28", 0.022], ["2022-09-30", 0.022], ["2022-10-08", 0.021], ["2022-10-09", 0.021]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11874/ | The 2022 FIA Formula One World Championship is a championship series of motorsports racing. The series takes place over 22 events, finishing at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 20, 2022.
Drivers score points based on their relative finishing position in a race; the driver winning the most cumulative points in the series wins the Championship. Constructors (people or companies who design and build the cars) also compete for the World Constructor's Championship; this question is focused on the driver's Championship.
Max Verstappen won the 2021 Driver's Championship, his first in his career. As of July 15, 2022, he holds a lead in the 2022 Championship over current second-place driver Charles Leclerc. | Sports | The driver below will resolve as Yes if they are the winner of the 2022 FIA Formula One World Driver's Championship, according to FIA officials. All other drivers will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates below; more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If no winner is determined by FIA for the 2022 season, all options below will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-11-19 | Will Sergio Perez win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-07-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-18", 0.01], ["2022-07-18", 0.01], ["2022-07-18", 0.013], ["2022-07-18", 0.013], ["2022-07-18", 0.01], ["2022-07-18", 0.042], ["2022-07-18", 0.073], ["2022-07-18", 0.053], ["2022-07-18", 0.053], ["2022-07-19", 0.042], ["2022-07-19", 0.039], ["2022-07-19", 0.039], ["2022-07-19", 0.036], ["2022-07-19", 0.034], ["2022-07-20", 0.034], ["2022-07-20", 0.054], ["2022-07-22", 0.051], ["2022-07-23", 0.051], ["2022-07-24", 0.045], ["2022-07-27", 0.045], ["2022-07-29", 0.045], ["2022-07-30", 0.046], ["2022-07-31", 0.047], ["2022-08-01", 0.038], ["2022-08-01", 0.037], ["2022-08-01", 0.037], ["2022-08-01", 0.037], ["2022-08-01", 0.039], ["2022-08-02", 0.039], ["2022-08-03", 0.037], ["2022-08-05", 0.037], ["2022-08-16", 0.034], ["2022-08-16", 0.034], ["2022-08-16", 0.034], ["2022-08-16", 0.033], ["2022-08-17", 0.032], ["2022-08-17", 0.032], ["2022-08-18", 0.032], ["2022-08-18", 0.031], ["2022-08-26", 0.031], ["2022-08-27", 0.03], ["2022-08-27", 0.029], ["2022-08-28", 0.029], ["2022-08-28", 0.03], ["2022-08-28", 0.03], ["2022-08-29", 0.029], ["2022-08-29", 0.029], ["2022-08-29", 0.027], ["2022-08-29", 0.028], ["2022-08-29", 0.028], ["2022-08-30", 0.027], ["2022-08-31", 0.027], ["2022-09-01", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-04", 0.024], ["2022-09-06", 0.023], ["2022-09-11", 0.022], ["2022-09-11", 0.022], ["2022-09-11", 0.023], ["2022-09-11", 0.023], ["2022-09-12", 0.023], ["2022-09-12", 0.023], ["2022-09-13", 0.022], ["2022-09-13", 0.022], ["2022-09-18", 0.021], ["2022-09-25", 0.021], ["2022-09-30", 0.021]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11875/ | The 2022 FIA Formula One World Championship is a championship series of motorsports racing. The series takes place over 22 events, finishing at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 20, 2022.
Drivers score points based on their relative finishing position in a race; the driver winning the most cumulative points in the series wins the Championship. Constructors (people or companies who design and build the cars) also compete for the World Constructor's Championship; this question is focused on the driver's Championship.
Max Verstappen won the 2021 Driver's Championship, his first in his career. As of July 15, 2022, he holds a lead in the 2022 Championship over current second-place driver Charles Leclerc. | Sports | The driver below will resolve as Yes if they are the winner of the 2022 FIA Formula One World Driver's Championship, according to FIA officials. All other drivers will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates below; more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If no winner is determined by FIA for the 2022 season, all options below will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-11-19 | Will Carlos Sainz win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-07-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-18", 0.015], ["2022-07-18", 0.027], ["2022-07-18", 0.027], ["2022-07-18", 0.013], ["2022-07-18", 0.017], ["2022-07-18", 0.018], ["2022-07-18", 0.018], ["2022-07-18", 0.09], ["2022-07-18", 0.058], ["2022-07-19", 0.073], ["2022-07-19", 0.079], ["2022-07-19", 0.079], ["2022-07-19", 0.07], ["2022-07-19", 0.066], ["2022-07-19", 0.064], ["2022-07-20", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.093], ["2022-07-20", 0.086], ["2022-07-22", 0.086], ["2022-07-23", 0.081], ["2022-07-24", 0.073], ["2022-07-27", 0.073], ["2022-07-29", 0.069], ["2022-07-31", 0.069], ["2022-08-01", 0.069], ["2022-08-01", 0.061], ["2022-08-01", 0.056], ["2022-08-01", 0.057], ["2022-08-02", 0.056], ["2022-08-02", 0.054], ["2022-08-05", 0.054], ["2022-08-10", 0.043], ["2022-08-16", 0.043], ["2022-08-16", 0.039], ["2022-08-16", 0.037], ["2022-08-17", 0.037], ["2022-08-17", 0.035], ["2022-08-18", 0.035], ["2022-08-18", 0.034], ["2022-08-25", 0.034], ["2022-08-26", 0.034], ["2022-08-27", 0.033], ["2022-08-27", 0.032], ["2022-08-28", 0.03], ["2022-08-28", 0.028], ["2022-08-28", 0.028], ["2022-08-29", 0.027], ["2022-08-29", 0.027], ["2022-08-29", 0.027], ["2022-08-29", 0.027], ["2022-08-29", 0.027], ["2022-08-29", 0.026], ["2022-08-29", 0.028], ["2022-08-30", 0.028], ["2022-08-31", 0.028], ["2022-09-04", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.027], ["2022-09-04", 0.027], ["2022-09-11", 0.025], ["2022-09-11", 0.025], ["2022-09-11", 0.024], ["2022-09-12", 0.025], ["2022-09-12", 0.025], ["2022-09-13", 0.025], ["2022-09-18", 0.023], ["2022-09-30", 0.023]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11876/ | The 2022 FIA Formula One World Championship is a championship series of motorsports racing. The series takes place over 22 events, finishing at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 20, 2022.
Drivers score points based on their relative finishing position in a race; the driver winning the most cumulative points in the series wins the Championship. Constructors (people or companies who design and build the cars) also compete for the World Constructor's Championship; this question is focused on the driver's Championship.
Max Verstappen won the 2021 Driver's Championship, his first in his career. As of July 15, 2022, he holds a lead in the 2022 Championship over current second-place driver Charles Leclerc. | Sports | The driver below will resolve as Yes if they are the winner of the 2022 FIA Formula One World Driver's Championship, according to FIA officials. All other drivers will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates below; more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If no winner is determined by FIA for the 2022 season, all options below will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-11-19 | Will George Russell win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-07-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-18", 0.01], ["2022-07-18", 0.01], ["2022-07-18", 0.04], ["2022-07-18", 0.027], ["2022-07-18", 0.027], ["2022-07-18", 0.02], ["2022-07-18", 0.048], ["2022-07-18", 0.048], ["2022-07-18", 0.058], ["2022-07-19", 0.058], ["2022-07-19", 0.08], ["2022-07-19", 0.071], ["2022-07-19", 0.067], ["2022-07-19", 0.067], ["2022-07-19", 0.06], ["2022-07-20", 0.06], ["2022-07-20", 0.056], ["2022-07-20", 0.111], ["2022-07-20", 0.103], ["2022-07-20", 0.103], ["2022-07-22", 0.103], ["2022-07-23", 0.091], ["2022-07-24", 0.091], ["2022-07-24", 0.088], ["2022-07-27", 0.088], ["2022-07-29", 0.088], ["2022-07-31", 0.081], ["2022-08-01", 0.073], ["2022-08-01", 0.073], ["2022-08-01", 0.069], ["2022-08-01", 0.069], ["2022-08-01", 0.068], ["2022-08-01", 0.068], ["2022-08-01", 0.069], ["2022-08-02", 0.066], ["2022-08-03", 0.066], ["2022-08-04", 0.067], ["2022-08-05", 0.067], ["2022-08-10", 0.067], ["2022-08-16", 0.066], ["2022-08-16", 0.064], ["2022-08-17", 0.061], ["2022-08-17", 0.058], ["2022-08-18", 0.055], ["2022-08-18", 0.055], ["2022-08-24", 0.055], ["2022-08-25", 0.055], ["2022-08-26", 0.052], ["2022-08-26", 0.052], ["2022-08-26", 0.053], ["2022-08-27", 0.051], ["2022-08-27", 0.05], ["2022-08-28", 0.05], ["2022-08-28", 0.049], ["2022-08-28", 0.048], ["2022-08-28", 0.049], ["2022-08-28", 0.045], ["2022-08-29", 0.044], ["2022-08-29", 0.043], ["2022-08-29", 0.044], ["2022-08-29", 0.043], ["2022-08-29", 0.044], ["2022-08-29", 0.044], ["2022-08-29", 0.043], ["2022-08-29", 0.041], ["2022-08-29", 0.043], ["2022-08-30", 0.042], ["2022-08-31", 0.042], ["2022-09-04", 0.042], ["2022-09-04", 0.041], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-11", 0.038], ["2022-09-11", 0.037], ["2022-09-11", 0.038], ["2022-09-12", 0.038], ["2022-09-12", 0.036], ["2022-09-13", 0.036], ["2022-09-18", 0.034], ["2022-09-30", 0.034]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11877/ | The 2022 FIA Formula One World Championship is a championship series of motorsports racing. The series takes place over 22 events, finishing at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 20, 2022.
Drivers score points based on their relative finishing position in a race; the driver winning the most cumulative points in the series wins the Championship. Constructors (people or companies who design and build the cars) also compete for the World Constructor's Championship; this question is focused on the driver's Championship.
Max Verstappen won the 2021 Driver's Championship, his first in his career. As of July 15, 2022, he holds a lead in the 2022 Championship over current second-place driver Charles Leclerc. | Sports | The driver below will resolve as Yes if they are the winner of the 2022 FIA Formula One World Driver's Championship, according to FIA officials. All other drivers will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates below; more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If no winner is determined by FIA for the 2022 season, all options below will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-11-19 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-16 | 2022-07-18 | ["https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/General/haavoda_list27", "https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/General/haavoda_list27", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/yesh-atid-files-electoral-slate-signaling-end-of-labor-meretz-unity-push/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/arab-led-joint-list-splits-into-2-factions-shuffling-political-deck-at-last-minute/", "https://archive.ph/wNo89", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Israeli_legislative_election#Polls", "https://aijac.org.au/fresh-air/israeli-political-parties-shuffle-the-deck-ahead-of-election-season/", "https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/two-tough-women-will-determine-the-fate-of-the-israeli-left/id1546994478?i=1000570705899", "https://archive.ph/7nMTL#selection-1557.0-1574.0"] | binary | [["2022-08-15", 0.4], ["2022-08-15", 0.4], ["2022-08-16", 0.4], ["2022-08-16", 0.4], ["2022-08-16", 0.4], ["2022-08-16", 0.422], ["2022-08-16", 0.422], ["2022-08-16", 0.418], ["2022-08-17", 0.416], ["2022-08-18", 0.412], ["2022-08-19", 0.414], ["2022-08-19", 0.409], ["2022-08-19", 0.409], ["2022-08-19", 0.399], ["2022-08-20", 0.454], ["2022-08-21", 0.454], ["2022-08-21", 0.466], ["2022-08-21", 0.489], ["2022-08-21", 0.491], ["2022-08-21", 0.489], ["2022-08-21", 0.49], ["2022-08-21", 0.49], ["2022-08-21", 0.497], ["2022-08-21", 0.497], ["2022-08-22", 0.504], ["2022-08-22", 0.512], ["2022-08-22", 0.516], ["2022-08-22", 0.516], ["2022-08-23", 0.516], ["2022-08-23", 0.528], ["2022-08-25", 0.516], ["2022-08-25", 0.516], ["2022-08-27", 0.504], ["2022-08-31", 0.489], ["2022-08-31", 0.487], ["2022-09-01", 0.485], ["2022-09-04", 0.485], ["2022-09-04", 0.516], ["2022-09-04", 0.516], ["2022-09-05", 0.522], ["2022-09-05", 0.527], ["2022-09-05", 0.532], ["2022-09-05", 0.537], ["2022-09-05", 0.532], ["2022-09-05", 0.534], ["2022-09-05", 0.534], ["2022-09-05", 0.544], ["2022-09-05", 0.547], ["2022-09-06", 0.547], ["2022-09-07", 0.548], ["2022-09-07", 0.548], ["2022-09-08", 0.549], ["2022-09-08", 0.547], ["2022-09-08", 0.547], ["2022-09-08", 0.547], ["2022-09-09", 0.546], ["2022-09-09", 0.538], ["2022-09-09", 0.538], ["2022-09-10", 0.538], ["2022-09-10", 0.534], ["2022-09-10", 0.534], ["2022-09-10", 0.536]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11904/ | Israel is having an election on November 1, 2022. The Blue and White Party and New Hope Party, two anti-Netanyahu parties, have announced that they will run together in the election. The Israeli Labor Party, the party that all Prime Ministers in the early days of the state were affiliated with recently had a primary. The leader Merav Michaeli wants Labor to run alone, whereas challenger Eran Hermoni wanted the Labor party to merge with a "centrist party" such as Lapid's Yesh Atid. The Labor Party allied with Hatnuah as the Zionist Union in the 2015 Israeli election, and allied with Gesher and Meretz in 2020. Lists of candidates are due to be submitted on September 15, and the election is on November 1. Former Meretz leader Zehava Gal-On will contest the Meretz primary, and supports a Labor-Meretz merger. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if the Israeli Labor Party does not run in a joint slate with any other parties, as per credible media sources. It will resolve as No if the Israeli Labor Party runs in a joint slate with at least one other party | true | 2022-09-11 | Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-08-16 | 2022-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-23", 0.1], ["2022-07-23", 0.04], ["2022-07-23", 0.04], ["2022-07-23", 0.1], ["2022-07-23", 0.05], ["2022-07-23", 0.05], ["2022-07-24", 0.285], ["2022-07-24", 0.3], ["2022-07-27", 0.317], ["2022-07-27", 0.281], ["2022-07-28", 0.25], ["2022-07-29", 0.25], ["2022-07-29", 0.275], ["2022-07-29", 0.274], ["2022-07-30", 0.291], ["2022-07-30", 0.308], ["2022-07-30", 0.327], ["2022-07-30", 0.318], ["2022-07-30", 0.305], ["2022-07-30", 0.305], ["2022-07-30", 0.318], ["2022-07-30", 0.318], ["2022-07-31", 0.318], ["2022-07-31", 0.29], ["2022-07-31", 0.28], ["2022-07-31", 0.278], ["2022-07-31", 0.276], ["2022-08-01", 0.276], ["2022-08-01", 0.265], ["2022-08-01", 0.265], ["2022-08-02", 0.276], ["2022-08-02", 0.271], ["2022-08-02", 0.271], ["2022-08-02", 0.269], ["2022-08-02", 0.266], ["2022-08-02", 0.266], ["2022-08-02", 0.261], ["2022-08-03", 0.261], ["2022-08-03", 0.244], ["2022-08-03", 0.243], ["2022-08-04", 0.243], ["2022-08-05", 0.241], ["2022-08-05", 0.265], ["2022-08-05", 0.265], ["2022-08-05", 0.268], ["2022-08-06", 0.272], ["2022-08-06", 0.268], ["2022-08-06", 0.268], ["2022-08-07", 0.265], ["2022-08-07", 0.265], ["2022-08-07", 0.263], ["2022-08-07", 0.248], ["2022-08-07", 0.241], ["2022-08-07", 0.241], ["2022-08-07", 0.236], ["2022-08-07", 0.232], ["2022-08-07", 0.232], ["2022-08-07", 0.231], ["2022-08-08", 0.231], ["2022-08-08", 0.228], ["2022-08-08", 0.228]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11922/ | The next Kenyan Presidential Election is scheduled to be held on 9 August 2022.
According to Wikipedia:
As of 6 June 2022, only four candidates and their running mates had been cleared. Walter Mong'are's nomination to run for presidency was revoked, after it emerged his degree was not from a recognized university as required by law.[8] The final list of presidential candidates are;
David Waihiga Mwaure, leader of Agano Party
Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister of Kenya (2008–2013) and leader of Orange Democratic Movement, under Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance
William Ruto, current Deputy President of Kenya (2013–present) and leader of United Democratic Alliance
George Wajackoyah, leader of Roots Party of Kenya
According to The Brookings Institution:
The August 9 vote is expected to be the most tightly contested in Kenya’s recent history, with political tensions rising since Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta shifted his support from Deputy President William Ruto to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the winner of the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election according to at least two credible media sources. It resolves as No for all others | true | 2022-08-08 | Will David Waihiga Mwaure win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-16 | 2022-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-23", 0.61], ["2022-07-23", 0.53], ["2022-07-23", 0.53], ["2022-07-23", 0.513], ["2022-07-23", 0.448], ["2022-07-23", 0.39], ["2022-07-24", 0.39], ["2022-07-24", 0.357], ["2022-07-27", 0.357], ["2022-07-27", 0.395], ["2022-07-28", 0.403], ["2022-07-28", 0.403], ["2022-07-29", 0.412], ["2022-07-29", 0.394], ["2022-07-30", 0.385], ["2022-07-30", 0.381], ["2022-07-31", 0.376], ["2022-07-31", 0.372], ["2022-07-31", 0.382], ["2022-07-31", 0.38], ["2022-07-31", 0.381], ["2022-07-31", 0.381], ["2022-07-31", 0.396], ["2022-07-31", 0.404], ["2022-07-31", 0.399], ["2022-08-01", 0.399], ["2022-08-01", 0.401], ["2022-08-01", 0.402], ["2022-08-02", 0.413], ["2022-08-02", 0.413], ["2022-08-02", 0.421], ["2022-08-02", 0.421], ["2022-08-02", 0.437], ["2022-08-03", 0.439], ["2022-08-03", 0.439], ["2022-08-04", 0.424], ["2022-08-04", 0.426], ["2022-08-04", 0.424], ["2022-08-05", 0.424], ["2022-08-05", 0.454], ["2022-08-05", 0.46], ["2022-08-05", 0.46], ["2022-08-05", 0.46], ["2022-08-06", 0.458], ["2022-08-07", 0.458], ["2022-08-07", 0.447], ["2022-08-07", 0.447], ["2022-08-07", 0.474], ["2022-08-07", 0.467], ["2022-08-07", 0.468], ["2022-08-07", 0.46], ["2022-08-07", 0.46], ["2022-08-07", 0.451], ["2022-08-08", 0.451], ["2022-08-08", 0.447], ["2022-08-08", 0.447], ["2022-08-08", 0.455], ["2022-08-08", 0.454]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11923/ | The next Kenyan Presidential Election is scheduled to be held on 9 August 2022.
According to Wikipedia:
As of 6 June 2022, only four candidates and their running mates had been cleared. Walter Mong'are's nomination to run for presidency was revoked, after it emerged his degree was not from a recognized university as required by law.[8] The final list of presidential candidates are;
David Waihiga Mwaure, leader of Agano Party
Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister of Kenya (2008–2013) and leader of Orange Democratic Movement, under Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance
William Ruto, current Deputy President of Kenya (2013–present) and leader of United Democratic Alliance
George Wajackoyah, leader of Roots Party of Kenya
According to The Brookings Institution:
The August 9 vote is expected to be the most tightly contested in Kenya’s recent history, with political tensions rising since Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta shifted his support from Deputy President William Ruto to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the winner of the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election according to at least two credible media sources. It resolves as No for all others | true | 2022-08-08 | Will Raila Odinga win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-16 | 2022-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-23", 0.39], ["2022-07-23", 0.29], ["2022-07-23", 0.37], ["2022-07-23", 0.407], ["2022-07-23", 0.368], ["2022-07-23", 0.368], ["2022-07-23", 0.405], ["2022-07-24", 0.348], ["2022-07-24", 0.357], ["2022-07-27", 0.391], ["2022-07-27", 0.39], ["2022-07-28", 0.395], ["2022-07-29", 0.402], ["2022-07-29", 0.394], ["2022-07-30", 0.394], ["2022-07-31", 0.395], ["2022-07-31", 0.394], ["2022-07-31", 0.396], ["2022-07-31", 0.41], ["2022-07-31", 0.41], ["2022-07-31", 0.404], ["2022-08-01", 0.402], ["2022-08-01", 0.405], ["2022-08-02", 0.405], ["2022-08-02", 0.407], ["2022-08-02", 0.408], ["2022-08-02", 0.417], ["2022-08-03", 0.417], ["2022-08-03", 0.434], ["2022-08-04", 0.439], ["2022-08-04", 0.44], ["2022-08-05", 0.44], ["2022-08-05", 0.431], ["2022-08-05", 0.431], ["2022-08-05", 0.43], ["2022-08-05", 0.431], ["2022-08-05", 0.431], ["2022-08-06", 0.431], ["2022-08-07", 0.447], ["2022-08-07", 0.439], ["2022-08-07", 0.439], ["2022-08-07", 0.468], ["2022-08-07", 0.468], ["2022-08-07", 0.483], ["2022-08-07", 0.481], ["2022-08-07", 0.48], ["2022-08-07", 0.476], ["2022-08-07", 0.459], ["2022-08-07", 0.476], ["2022-08-07", 0.476], ["2022-08-07", 0.482], ["2022-08-08", 0.485], ["2022-08-08", 0.48], ["2022-08-08", 0.477], ["2022-08-08", 0.471]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11924/ | The next Kenyan Presidential Election is scheduled to be held on 9 August 2022.
According to Wikipedia:
As of 6 June 2022, only four candidates and their running mates had been cleared. Walter Mong'are's nomination to run for presidency was revoked, after it emerged his degree was not from a recognized university as required by law.[8] The final list of presidential candidates are;
David Waihiga Mwaure, leader of Agano Party
Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister of Kenya (2008–2013) and leader of Orange Democratic Movement, under Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance
William Ruto, current Deputy President of Kenya (2013–present) and leader of United Democratic Alliance
George Wajackoyah, leader of Roots Party of Kenya
According to The Brookings Institution:
The August 9 vote is expected to be the most tightly contested in Kenya’s recent history, with political tensions rising since Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta shifted his support from Deputy President William Ruto to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the winner of the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election according to at least two credible media sources. It resolves as No for all others | true | 2022-08-08 | Will William Ruto win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-08-16 | 2022-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-23", 0.1], ["2022-07-23", 0.025], ["2022-07-23", 0.025], ["2022-07-23", 0.1], ["2022-07-23", 0.05], ["2022-07-24", 0.032], ["2022-07-24", 0.028], ["2022-07-27", 0.028], ["2022-07-27", 0.123], ["2022-07-28", 0.1], ["2022-07-29", 0.138], ["2022-07-29", 0.134], ["2022-07-30", 0.143], ["2022-07-30", 0.152], ["2022-07-30", 0.159], ["2022-07-30", 0.153], ["2022-07-31", 0.153], ["2022-07-31", 0.142], ["2022-07-31", 0.133], ["2022-07-31", 0.133], ["2022-08-01", 0.132], ["2022-08-01", 0.149], ["2022-08-02", 0.149], ["2022-08-02", 0.146], ["2022-08-03", 0.146], ["2022-08-03", 0.141], ["2022-08-03", 0.137], ["2022-08-03", 0.136], ["2022-08-05", 0.141], ["2022-08-05", 0.141], ["2022-08-06", 0.141], ["2022-08-07", 0.138], ["2022-08-07", 0.131], ["2022-08-07", 0.131], ["2022-08-07", 0.127], ["2022-08-07", 0.126], ["2022-08-07", 0.125], ["2022-08-07", 0.122], ["2022-08-07", 0.122], ["2022-08-07", 0.122], ["2022-08-07", 0.132], ["2022-08-08", 0.126], ["2022-08-08", 0.126], ["2022-08-08", 0.125]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11925/ | The next Kenyan Presidential Election is scheduled to be held on 9 August 2022.
According to Wikipedia:
As of 6 June 2022, only four candidates and their running mates had been cleared. Walter Mong'are's nomination to run for presidency was revoked, after it emerged his degree was not from a recognized university as required by law.[8] The final list of presidential candidates are;
David Waihiga Mwaure, leader of Agano Party
Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister of Kenya (2008–2013) and leader of Orange Democratic Movement, under Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance
William Ruto, current Deputy President of Kenya (2013–present) and leader of United Democratic Alliance
George Wajackoyah, leader of Roots Party of Kenya
According to The Brookings Institution:
The August 9 vote is expected to be the most tightly contested in Kenya’s recent history, with political tensions rising since Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta shifted his support from Deputy President William Ruto to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for the winner of the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election according to at least two credible media sources. It resolves as No for all others | true | 2022-08-08 | Will George Wajackoyah win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-07-21 | ["https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/vaccines/vaccine-basics.html", "https://www.fda.gov/media/162284/download", "https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar", "https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/acam2000-smallpox-vaccine-questions-and-answers", "https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/interim-considerations/acam2000-vaccine.html", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/28/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administrations-monkeypox-outbreak-response/", "https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/interim-considerations/overview.html", "https://news.gallup.com/poll/234863/estimate-lgbt-population-rises.aspx", "https://www.census.gov/popclock/"] | binary | [["2022-07-24", 0.2], ["2022-07-25", 0.5], ["2022-07-26", 0.5], ["2022-07-26", 0.493], ["2022-07-27", 0.532], ["2022-07-29", 0.554], ["2022-07-30", 0.559], ["2022-07-30", 0.581], ["2022-07-31", 0.619], ["2022-08-02", 0.619], ["2022-08-05", 0.612], ["2022-08-15", 0.62], ["2022-08-16", 0.599], ["2022-08-16", 0.619], ["2022-08-18", 0.619], ["2022-08-18", 0.619], ["2022-08-27", 0.619], ["2022-08-27", 0.53], ["2022-08-27", 0.423], ["2022-08-28", 0.413], ["2022-08-28", 0.391], ["2022-08-29", 0.382], ["2022-08-29", 0.379], ["2022-08-30", 0.379], ["2022-08-31", 0.382], ["2022-09-01", 0.382], ["2022-09-01", 0.374], ["2022-09-05", 0.372], ["2022-09-05", 0.377], ["2022-09-07", 0.379], ["2022-09-20", 0.374], ["2022-09-22", 0.372], ["2022-09-24", 0.372], ["2022-09-24", 0.369], ["2022-09-25", 0.369], ["2022-09-25", 0.366], ["2022-09-26", 0.366], ["2022-09-28", 0.366], ["2022-09-30", 0.356], ["2022-10-01", 0.355], ["2022-10-01", 0.352], ["2022-10-11", 0.352], ["2022-10-13", 0.351], ["2022-10-20", 0.351], ["2022-10-25", 0.353], ["2022-10-26", 0.354], ["2022-10-28", 0.352], ["2022-10-29", 0.352], ["2022-10-30", 0.35], ["2022-10-31", 0.35], ["2022-11-01", 0.351], ["2022-11-02", 0.345], ["2022-11-03", 0.345], ["2022-11-04", 0.346], ["2022-11-11", 0.345], ["2022-11-11", 0.345], ["2022-11-12", 0.343], ["2022-11-13", 0.343], ["2022-11-14", 0.343], ["2022-11-17", 0.345], ["2022-11-19", 0.342], ["2022-11-19", 0.331], ["2022-11-20", 0.322], ["2022-11-20", 0.319], ["2022-11-21", 0.321], ["2022-11-23", 0.321], ["2022-11-23", 0.315], ["2022-11-24", 0.314], ["2022-11-24", 0.306], ["2022-11-25", 0.306], ["2022-11-25", 0.304], ["2022-11-26", 0.296], ["2022-11-26", 0.292], ["2022-11-27", 0.291], ["2022-11-28", 0.286], ["2022-11-28", 0.286], ["2022-11-30", 0.284], ["2022-12-05", 0.284], ["2022-12-05", 0.26], ["2022-12-06", 0.252], ["2022-12-07", 0.25], ["2022-12-07", 0.245], ["2022-12-08", 0.237], ["2022-12-09", 0.236], ["2022-12-09", 0.232], ["2022-12-13", 0.231], ["2022-12-14", 0.226], ["2022-12-15", 0.225], ["2022-12-16", 0.219], ["2022-12-16", 0.218], ["2022-12-22", 0.208], ["2022-12-23", 0.204], ["2022-12-23", 0.204], ["2022-12-24", 0.185], ["2022-12-24", 0.185], ["2022-12-27", 0.17], ["2022-12-27", 0.168], ["2022-12-29", 0.165], ["2022-12-30", 0.161], ["2022-12-31", 0.161], ["2022-12-31", 0.13]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11939/ | Monkeypox is a virus that is closely related to but distinct from smallpox and which, until recently, was limited to parts of Central Africa and West Africa where the virus has animal reservoirs. A recent systematic review finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of "global relevance."
An ongoing outbreak of monkeypox was confirmed in the spring of 2022, beginning with a cluster of cases found in the United Kingdom. Since May 2022, human-to-human transmission has been known to be occurring in areas where monkeypox has has not been previously endemic, including Europe, North America, and South America. As of July 21, 2022, there have been 15.3k confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox reported globally in countries outside Central/West Africa.
Cases have mostly but not exclusively been identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) . Most transmission events seem to be occurring in sexual networks, likely through prolonged skin-to-skin contact.
The vaccine most widely used at the moment for preventing monkeypox infection is JYNNEOS, which is the only monkeypox vaccine that has been licensed by the US FDA.
The US CDC is currently recommending the following regarding vaccination: "CDC recommends vaccination for people who have been in close contact with people who have monkeypox. Currently, this outbreak is largely affecting gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men. People who may be eligible for vaccination include:"
People who have been identified by public health officials as a contact of someone with monkeypox
People who may have been exposed to monkeypox, such as: (1) People who are aware that one of their sexual partners in the past 2 weeks has been diagnosed with monkeypox, (2) People who had multiple sexual partners in the past 2 weeks in an area with known monkeypox cases
The purpose of this question is to understand what future guidance on vaccination efforts might look like. This may inform state efforts to pursue a broader vaccination campaign as opposed to ring vaccination. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as Yes if the US CDC updates its monkeypox vaccination recommendations so that it, at minimum, it recommends that all MSM (not just those who have had multiple sex partners in recent weeks) in the entire US (not just areas where monkeypox cases have been confirmed) be made eligible for vaccination and that it moreover recommends that members of this group should be vaccinated | true | 2023-01-01 | Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-07-23 | [] | binary | [["2022-07-24", 0.07], ["2022-07-24", 0.07], ["2022-07-24", 0.08], ["2022-07-24", 0.175], ["2022-07-25", 0.166], ["2022-07-25", 0.142], ["2022-07-27", 0.143], ["2022-07-31", 0.143], ["2022-08-01", 0.131], ["2022-08-01", 0.118], ["2022-08-02", 0.118], ["2022-08-02", 0.115], ["2022-08-03", 0.11], ["2022-08-03", 0.101], ["2022-08-04", 0.101], ["2022-08-04", 0.106], ["2022-08-04", 0.093], ["2022-08-05", 0.096], ["2022-08-05", 0.096], ["2022-08-06", 0.102], ["2022-08-07", 0.102], ["2022-08-08", 0.107], ["2022-08-11", 0.101], ["2022-08-13", 0.108], ["2022-08-18", 0.108], ["2022-08-21", 0.109], ["2022-08-29", 0.111], ["2022-08-31", 0.111], ["2022-09-09", 0.111], ["2022-09-11", 0.111], ["2022-09-12", 0.12], ["2022-09-22", 0.12], ["2022-09-22", 0.118], ["2022-09-23", 0.117], ["2022-10-01", 0.111], ["2022-10-01", 0.118], ["2022-10-08", 0.118], ["2022-10-09", 0.117], ["2022-10-09", 0.114], ["2022-10-09", 0.114], ["2022-10-09", 0.119], ["2022-10-10", 0.115], ["2022-10-11", 0.115], ["2022-10-12", 0.115], ["2022-10-12", 0.128], ["2022-10-13", 0.129], ["2022-10-13", 0.13], ["2022-10-14", 0.132], ["2022-10-14", 0.134], ["2022-10-16", 0.135], ["2022-10-16", 0.136], ["2022-10-20", 0.132], ["2022-10-20", 0.132], ["2022-10-22", 0.13], ["2022-10-22", 0.13], ["2022-10-25", 0.13], ["2022-10-25", 0.13], ["2022-10-27", 0.131], ["2022-10-28", 0.136], ["2022-10-28", 0.13], ["2022-10-29", 0.129], ["2022-10-29", 0.129], ["2022-10-30", 0.129], ["2022-11-01", 0.128], ["2022-11-03", 0.128], ["2022-11-05", 0.127], ["2022-11-07", 0.127], ["2022-11-09", 0.125], ["2022-11-11", 0.125], ["2022-11-12", 0.125], ["2022-11-16", 0.124], ["2022-11-16", 0.124], ["2022-11-18", 0.125], ["2022-11-24", 0.126], ["2022-11-25", 0.126], ["2022-11-25", 0.127], ["2022-11-26", 0.123], ["2022-12-02", 0.123], ["2022-12-02", 0.12], ["2022-12-03", 0.119], ["2022-12-06", 0.118], ["2022-12-06", 0.116], ["2022-12-06", 0.116], ["2022-12-07", 0.114], ["2022-12-08", 0.114], ["2022-12-14", 0.112], ["2022-12-16", 0.107], ["2022-12-16", 0.098], ["2022-12-17", 0.095], ["2022-12-17", 0.095], ["2022-12-20", 0.094], ["2022-12-25", 0.094], ["2022-12-26", 0.092], ["2022-12-26", 0.089], ["2022-12-27", 0.088], ["2022-12-28", 0.088], ["2022-12-28", 0.085], ["2022-12-28", 0.084], ["2022-12-29", 0.083], ["2022-12-30", 0.083], ["2022-12-30", 0.075]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11971/ | This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.
The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:
currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281
(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.) | Economics & Business | Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (¥) depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-02 | 2022-07-25 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11358/next-conservative-leader-uk/", "https://www.metaculus.com/help/guidelines/#etiquette", "https://apnews.com/article/ap-news-alert-china-nancy-pelosi-taiwan-congress-d3e97b8e03903d2f879b2cd78d659e79", "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit-china-us-tensions", "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#fewpoints", "https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1554480584860340226", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/02/nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-china-military/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWBUQ1NjxQw", "https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1554469844141150213", "https://www.radarbox.com/data/flights/SPAR19/1824926220", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-conducts-successful-counterterrorism-operation-takes-out-significant-al-qaeda-target-afghanistan", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html", "https://twitter.com/tingtingliuTVBS/status/1554003032186449920", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TVBS_News", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62310576", "https://twitter.com/ZichenWanghere/status/1553768852382576642", "https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1553620792390328320", "https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2cde215e", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/nancy-pelosi-to-travel-to-asia-with-possible-taiwan-stop-despite-china-warnings-11659122055", "https://archive.ph/7iAct", "https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1553011849645408262", "https://twitter.com/PostLive/status/1553013067356725248", "https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/1552846120270823425", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/joe-biden-nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china/index.html", "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/pelosi-invited-senior-lawmakers-join-taiwan-trip-top-republican-says-rcna40242", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/pelosi-looking-to-visit-japan-in-early-august-kyodo-says?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social#xj4y7vzkg", "https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1551998791963770881", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone"] | binary | [["2022-07-26", 0.45], ["2022-07-26", 0.613], ["2022-07-27", 0.595], ["2022-07-27", 0.582], ["2022-07-27", 0.584], ["2022-07-27", 0.593], ["2022-07-27", 0.588], ["2022-07-27", 0.596], ["2022-07-27", 0.596], ["2022-07-27", 0.63], ["2022-07-27", 0.647], ["2022-07-27", 0.653], ["2022-07-27", 0.656], ["2022-07-27", 0.67], ["2022-07-27", 0.672], ["2022-07-27", 0.688], ["2022-07-27", 0.697], ["2022-07-27", 0.714], ["2022-07-28", 0.719], ["2022-07-28", 0.724], ["2022-07-28", 0.729], ["2022-07-28", 0.729], ["2022-07-28", 0.729], ["2022-07-28", 0.726], ["2022-07-28", 0.724], ["2022-07-28", 0.725], ["2022-07-28", 0.725], ["2022-07-28", 0.724], ["2022-07-28", 0.71], ["2022-07-28", 0.71], ["2022-07-28", 0.701], ["2022-07-28", 0.698], ["2022-07-28", 0.697], ["2022-07-28", 0.696], ["2022-07-29", 0.696], ["2022-07-29", 0.68], ["2022-07-29", 0.68], ["2022-07-29", 0.678], ["2022-07-29", 0.684], ["2022-07-29", 0.689], ["2022-07-29", 0.689], ["2022-07-29", 0.684], ["2022-07-29", 0.684], ["2022-07-29", 0.681], ["2022-07-29", 0.68], ["2022-07-29", 0.679], ["2022-07-29", 0.677], ["2022-07-29", 0.673], ["2022-07-30", 0.673], ["2022-07-30", 0.677], ["2022-07-30", 0.677], ["2022-07-30", 0.677], ["2022-07-30", 0.678], ["2022-07-30", 0.675], ["2022-07-30", 0.68], ["2022-07-30", 0.686], ["2022-07-30", 0.699], ["2022-07-30", 0.698], ["2022-07-30", 0.705], ["2022-07-30", 0.707], ["2022-07-30", 0.715], ["2022-07-30", 0.718], ["2022-07-30", 0.728], ["2022-07-31", 0.727], ["2022-07-31", 0.732], ["2022-07-31", 0.732], ["2022-07-31", 0.73], ["2022-07-31", 0.716], ["2022-07-31", 0.711], ["2022-07-31", 0.7], ["2022-07-31", 0.693], ["2022-07-31", 0.686], ["2022-07-31", 0.691], ["2022-07-31", 0.68], ["2022-07-31", 0.667], ["2022-07-31", 0.662], ["2022-07-31", 0.654], ["2022-07-31", 0.64], ["2022-08-01", 0.633], ["2022-08-01", 0.633], ["2022-08-01", 0.63], ["2022-08-01", 0.627], ["2022-08-01", 0.628], ["2022-08-01", 0.632], ["2022-08-01", 0.636], ["2022-08-01", 0.656], ["2022-08-01", 0.677], ["2022-08-01", 0.717], ["2022-08-01", 0.75], ["2022-08-01", 0.772], ["2022-08-01", 0.788], ["2022-08-01", 0.801], ["2022-08-02", 0.81], ["2022-08-02", 0.811], ["2022-08-02", 0.818], ["2022-08-02", 0.818], ["2022-08-02", 0.824], ["2022-08-02", 0.828], ["2022-08-02", 0.83], ["2022-08-02", 0.843], ["2022-08-02", 0.859]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11975/ | Taiwan, and in particular its fraught relationship with China, have been the subject of many previous Metaculus questions.
In July 2022, the Financial Times reported that Nancy Pelosi would visit Taiwan in August. CNN reported that Biden administration were worried that China could declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan if she visited. If Pelosi does visit Taiwan, it will be the first visit by a Speaker of the House of Representatives in 25 years. Recently, many Chinese planes have flown over Taiwan's ADIZ, which China claims as its own. However, there has not been a serious crisis over Taiwan since 1996, following Taiwan's then-President Lee Teng Hui giving a speech at Cornell, his alma mater. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan, as reported by reliable media outlets. "Taiwan" for the purposes of this question is any territory under the de facto sovereignty of the Republic of China.
Fine Print
Visiting only non-Taiwan parts of ROC like Kinmen is still enough to trigger positive resolution. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-02-01 | 2022-07-27 | ["https://ground.news/article/52f0f5b0-08ad-43c8-ac69-ddc887b05f2a", "https://ground.news/article/anxiety-over-tripledemic-has-these-lausd-parents-pleading-for-mask-mandate?utm_source=headline-link&utm_medium=share", "https://ground.news/article/yosemite-national-park-reinstates-indoor-mask-mandate", "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11618971/Covid-Restrictions-creep-American-life-Michigan-Massachusetts-begin-Mask-Mandates.html", "https://ground.news/article/cc5f5447-d8d2-4cef-875b-35c30d4a9d10"] | binary | [["2022-07-29", 0.29], ["2022-07-29", 0.33], ["2022-07-30", 0.327], ["2022-07-30", 0.404], ["2022-07-31", 0.361], ["2022-08-01", 0.357], ["2022-08-02", 0.365], ["2022-08-03", 0.355], ["2022-08-04", 0.355], ["2022-08-05", 0.361], ["2022-08-06", 0.386], ["2022-08-07", 0.386], ["2022-08-07", 0.375], ["2022-08-09", 0.369], ["2022-08-10", 0.356], ["2022-08-10", 0.346], ["2022-08-15", 0.346], ["2022-08-18", 0.346], ["2022-08-19", 0.346], ["2022-08-31", 0.337], ["2022-09-07", 0.335], ["2022-09-09", 0.335], ["2022-09-09", 0.336], ["2022-09-12", 0.336], ["2022-09-19", 0.337], ["2022-10-08", 0.33], ["2022-10-08", 0.289], ["2022-10-09", 0.28], ["2022-10-10", 0.291], ["2022-10-11", 0.29], ["2022-10-12", 0.285], ["2022-10-16", 0.285], ["2022-10-16", 0.285], ["2022-10-23", 0.285], ["2022-10-25", 0.284], ["2022-10-27", 0.284], ["2022-10-28", 0.28], ["2022-11-01", 0.28], ["2022-11-08", 0.28], ["2022-11-08", 0.278], ["2022-11-10", 0.278], ["2022-11-11", 0.277], ["2022-11-12", 0.277], ["2022-11-24", 0.273], ["2022-11-25", 0.273], ["2022-11-28", 0.273], ["2022-11-30", 0.272], ["2022-12-08", 0.267], ["2022-12-08", 0.267], ["2022-12-11", 0.263], ["2022-12-12", 0.263], ["2022-12-13", 0.262], ["2022-12-19", 0.262], ["2022-12-22", 0.261], ["2022-12-22", 0.26], ["2022-12-26", 0.26], ["2022-12-26", 0.255], ["2022-12-27", 0.255], ["2022-12-28", 0.25], ["2022-12-29", 0.25], ["2022-12-29", 0.249], ["2023-01-01", 0.249], ["2023-01-01", 0.243], ["2023-01-02", 0.236], ["2023-01-03", 0.227], ["2023-01-03", 0.22], ["2023-01-04", 0.217], ["2023-01-05", 0.209], ["2023-01-05", 0.206], ["2023-01-06", 0.206], ["2023-01-07", 0.189], ["2023-01-08", 0.189], ["2023-01-08", 0.186], ["2023-01-09", 0.175], ["2023-01-10", 0.172], ["2023-01-10", 0.172], ["2023-01-11", 0.173], ["2023-01-13", 0.173], ["2023-01-13", 0.171], ["2023-01-15", 0.171], ["2023-01-16", 0.168], ["2023-01-16", 0.164], ["2023-01-17", 0.164], ["2023-01-17", 0.158], ["2023-01-18", 0.155], ["2023-01-20", 0.154], ["2023-01-21", 0.154], ["2023-01-21", 0.15], ["2023-01-22", 0.149], ["2023-01-23", 0.146], ["2023-01-24", 0.144], ["2023-01-25", 0.142], ["2023-01-25", 0.141], ["2023-01-26", 0.141], ["2023-01-27", 0.139], ["2023-01-28", 0.138], ["2023-01-28", 0.133], ["2023-01-29", 0.132], ["2023-01-30", 0.131], ["2023-01-31", 0.108], ["2023-02-01", 0.104]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12001/ | Make mandates were widely introduced around the world to limit the spread of Covid-19. However, as of July 26th 2022, all US states have scrapped their indoor mask mandates. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, and after the opening of this question, at least one US state implements an indoor mask mandate that applies to people in supermarkets. This source can be used for resolution | true | 2023-02-01 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-15 | 2022-08-06 | ["https://www.predictit.org/markets", "https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/OralArgRecordings/22/22-51124_2-8-2023.mp3", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uH7u7g1qQv8", "https://twitter.com/OldBullTV/status/1623422610519347201", "https://nclalegal.org/amicus-brief-kevin-clarke-et-al-v-commodity-futures-trading-commission/", "https://bettermarkets.org/newsroom/actions-in-the-federal-courts-month-in-review-newsletter-january-2023/", "https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/oral-argument-information/court-calendars/Details/1635/", "https://www.bonus.com/news/predictit-dismissal-denied/", "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8647-23", "https://twitter.com/PredictIt/status/1618764217901023234", "https://twitter.com/PredictIt/status/1609703531308814337", "https://www.usbets.com/predictit-files-suit-against-cftc/", "https://starspangledgamblers.libsyn.com/predictits-ceo-speaks", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12122/predictit-default-by-end-of-2022/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-06/predictit-betting-on-us-elections-nixed-by-american-regulators)"] | binary | [["2022-08-10", 0.6], ["2022-08-10", 0.294], ["2022-08-11", 0.294], ["2022-08-12", 0.255], ["2022-08-13", 0.241], ["2022-08-14", 0.217], ["2022-08-15", 0.209], ["2022-08-16", 0.203], ["2022-08-17", 0.243], ["2022-08-18", 0.274], ["2022-08-19", 0.274], ["2022-08-20", 0.256], ["2022-08-31", 0.26], ["2022-09-04", 0.26], ["2022-09-13", 0.264], ["2022-09-14", 0.276], ["2022-09-15", 0.29], ["2022-09-16", 0.29], ["2022-09-19", 0.288], ["2022-09-22", 0.289], ["2022-09-23", 0.285], ["2022-09-26", 0.283], ["2022-09-27", 0.28], ["2022-09-29", 0.28], ["2022-09-30", 0.279], ["2022-10-16", 0.282], ["2022-10-16", 0.283], ["2022-10-21", 0.283], ["2022-10-21", 0.287], ["2022-10-25", 0.284], ["2022-10-27", 0.283], ["2022-11-01", 0.283], ["2022-11-05", 0.287], ["2022-11-06", 0.288], ["2022-11-12", 0.288], ["2022-11-13", 0.288], ["2022-11-14", 0.288], ["2022-11-25", 0.292], ["2022-11-26", 0.292], ["2022-11-27", 0.297], ["2022-11-28", 0.298], ["2022-12-03", 0.3], ["2022-12-04", 0.3], ["2022-12-20", 0.301], ["2022-12-22", 0.311], ["2022-12-31", 0.311], ["2023-01-02", 0.314], ["2023-01-02", 0.298], ["2023-01-04", 0.293], ["2023-01-05", 0.295], ["2023-01-07", 0.296], ["2023-01-08", 0.297], ["2023-01-11", 0.297], ["2023-01-14", 0.299], ["2023-01-16", 0.3], ["2023-01-21", 0.3], ["2023-01-23", 0.301], ["2023-01-26", 0.302], ["2023-01-27", 0.33], ["2023-01-28", 0.346], ["2023-01-30", 0.346], ["2023-02-01", 0.353], ["2023-02-02", 0.355], ["2023-02-02", 0.355], ["2023-02-04", 0.361], ["2023-02-05", 0.377], ["2023-02-06", 0.377], ["2023-02-07", 0.407], ["2023-02-08", 0.414], ["2023-02-10", 0.437], ["2023-02-11", 0.442], ["2023-02-12", 0.449], ["2023-02-13", 0.455], ["2023-02-13", 0.459], ["2023-02-15", 0.471], ["2023-02-16", 0.477], ["2023-02-17", 0.477], ["2023-02-18", 0.477], ["2023-02-20", 0.477], ["2023-02-21", 0.491], ["2023-02-21", 0.496], ["2023-02-22", 0.534], ["2023-02-23", 0.555], ["2023-02-24", 0.556], ["2023-02-26", 0.566], ["2023-02-27", 0.566], ["2023-02-28", 0.591], ["2023-03-01", 0.597], ["2023-03-02", 0.609], ["2023-03-03", 0.611], ["2023-03-04", 0.615], ["2023-03-04", 0.617], ["2023-03-05", 0.623], ["2023-03-07", 0.629], ["2023-03-08", 0.638], ["2023-03-09", 0.658], ["2023-03-10", 0.67], ["2023-03-11", 0.693], ["2023-03-13", 0.733], ["2023-03-14", 0.834], ["2023-03-14", 0.838]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12120/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | PredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market website associated with Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and operated by Aristotle, Inc. On August 4, 2022, PredcitIt announced that the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had withdrawn the No-Action Letter under which PredictIt had been legally operating since 2014. The CFTC announcement thereof declared that all PredictIt markets must be "closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on February 15, 2023."
Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?
The question will resolve as Yes if, on March 15, 2023 at 12:00 pm EST, an ordinary user in the USA can create an account on PredictIt, deposit funds, trade on a prediction market using real currency, and withdraw funds from PredictIt, all legally and without the use of a VPN or similar technology to mask the user's location. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-08 | ["https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7609", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7837", "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/09/15/election-betting-site-predictit-sues-to-block-cftc-ordered-shutdown/", "https://www.predictit.org/terms-and-conditions", "https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2018-07/enfintradepredictionmarketltdexchangenetworkconsentorder030916.pdf"] | binary | [["2022-08-15", 0.51], ["2022-08-16", 0.51], ["2022-08-17", 0.42], ["2022-08-17", 0.273], ["2022-08-18", 0.335], ["2022-08-18", 0.314], ["2022-08-18", 0.312], ["2022-08-19", 0.341], ["2022-08-19", 0.331], ["2022-08-20", 0.331], ["2022-08-21", 0.313], ["2022-08-22", 0.311], ["2022-08-23", 0.311], ["2022-08-23", 0.307], ["2022-08-23", 0.307], ["2022-08-24", 0.292], ["2022-08-25", 0.292], ["2022-08-26", 0.292], ["2022-08-26", 0.298], ["2022-08-28", 0.298], ["2022-08-30", 0.296], ["2022-08-30", 0.29], ["2022-08-30", 0.295], ["2022-08-31", 0.295], ["2022-08-31", 0.295], ["2022-09-01", 0.3], ["2022-09-11", 0.3], ["2022-09-17", 0.291], ["2022-09-19", 0.29], ["2022-09-19", 0.29], ["2022-09-20", 0.295], ["2022-09-23", 0.291], ["2022-09-23", 0.289], ["2022-09-29", 0.289], ["2022-09-29", 0.279], ["2022-09-30", 0.269], ["2022-10-07", 0.267], ["2022-10-08", 0.265], ["2022-10-08", 0.264], ["2022-10-09", 0.263], ["2022-10-10", 0.263], ["2022-10-10", 0.263], ["2022-10-12", 0.256], ["2022-10-13", 0.256], ["2022-10-15", 0.252], ["2022-10-16", 0.253], ["2022-10-17", 0.252], ["2022-10-21", 0.251], ["2022-10-21", 0.251], ["2022-10-25", 0.251], ["2022-10-26", 0.252], ["2022-10-30", 0.255], ["2022-10-30", 0.255], ["2022-11-01", 0.259], ["2022-11-05", 0.259], ["2022-11-05", 0.259], ["2022-11-07", 0.258], ["2022-11-08", 0.258], ["2022-11-09", 0.259], ["2022-11-09", 0.258], ["2022-11-10", 0.258], ["2022-11-12", 0.259], ["2022-11-14", 0.259], ["2022-11-15", 0.259], ["2022-11-18", 0.259], ["2022-11-20", 0.258], ["2022-11-24", 0.257], ["2022-11-24", 0.253], ["2022-11-25", 0.253], ["2022-11-26", 0.253], ["2022-11-26", 0.257], ["2022-11-28", 0.257], ["2022-12-02", 0.26], ["2022-12-02", 0.26], ["2022-12-06", 0.259], ["2022-12-07", 0.26], ["2022-12-07", 0.26], ["2022-12-11", 0.263], ["2022-12-13", 0.263], ["2022-12-14", 0.263], ["2022-12-15", 0.264], ["2022-12-15", 0.264], ["2022-12-16", 0.263], ["2022-12-17", 0.263], ["2022-12-21", 0.256], ["2022-12-22", 0.244], ["2022-12-22", 0.241], ["2022-12-23", 0.231], ["2022-12-24", 0.226], ["2022-12-24", 0.222], ["2022-12-25", 0.217], ["2022-12-25", 0.216], ["2022-12-26", 0.216], ["2022-12-27", 0.216], ["2022-12-28", 0.211], ["2022-12-29", 0.208], ["2022-12-29", 0.208], ["2022-12-30", 0.204], ["2022-12-30", 0.181], ["2022-12-31", 0.14], ["2022-12-31", 0.14]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12122/ | (See also: Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?)
PredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market platform allowing users based in the United States to bet on political events, under the auspices of a No-Action Letter by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On August 4, 2022, PredictIt announced that the CFTC had withdrawn the No-Action Letter and that trading on the platform would cease on February 15, 2023.
This allows PredictIt users one final November election in which to place their bets and collect their winnings. The purpose of this question is to determine whether there is elevated counterparty risk on the part of PredictIt--i.e., the risk that the company would not fulfill its contractual obligation to allow its users to withdraw their winnings at any time through the end of the year. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve as Yes if there has been a credible media reporting of any ordinary PredictIt user or users who have been unable to withdraw their funds from their PredictIt account on or before December 31, 2022.
For purposes of this question an "ordinary" user of PredictIt is one for whom there would be no reason for PredictIt to contractually be permitted to block a withdrawal.
Generally as a practical matter there should be consensus as to whether or not there has been any such reporting. However, the Metaculus admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.
Fine Print
"Credible media" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets in the United States include Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and newspapers such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. Smaller or local media outlets will treated on a case-by-case basis. To take a random example, if WSB-TV News in Atlanta reported on a specific local resident who had been blocked from withdrawing their PredictIt funds, this would be treated as credible. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-23 | 2022-08-12 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/project/transparent-replications/", "https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replication-2022nature603/"] | binary | [["2022-10-03", 0.45], ["2022-10-03", 0.467], ["2022-10-03", 0.525], ["2022-10-03", 0.56], ["2022-10-03", 0.56], ["2022-10-03", 0.593], ["2022-10-03", 0.566], ["2022-10-03", 0.566], ["2022-10-03", 0.558], ["2022-10-03", 0.58], ["2022-10-03", 0.544], ["2022-10-03", 0.555], ["2022-10-03", 0.555], ["2022-10-03", 0.552], ["2022-10-03", 0.549], ["2022-10-04", 0.541], ["2022-10-04", 0.52], ["2022-10-04", 0.525], ["2022-10-04", 0.53], ["2022-10-04", 0.53], ["2022-10-04", 0.53], ["2022-10-04", 0.531], ["2022-10-04", 0.535], ["2022-10-04", 0.543], ["2022-10-04", 0.556], ["2022-10-04", 0.556], ["2022-10-04", 0.548], ["2022-10-04", 0.563], ["2022-10-05", 0.567], ["2022-10-05", 0.567], ["2022-10-05", 0.57], ["2022-10-05", 0.57], ["2022-10-06", 0.576], ["2022-10-06", 0.581], ["2022-10-06", 0.582], ["2022-10-07", 0.583], ["2022-10-07", 0.583], ["2022-10-10", 0.59], ["2022-10-10", 0.593], ["2022-10-11", 0.591], ["2022-10-12", 0.59], ["2022-10-12", 0.594], ["2022-10-13", 0.594], ["2022-10-25", 0.605], ["2022-10-26", 0.605], ["2022-10-26", 0.605], ["2022-10-31", 0.603], ["2022-10-31", 0.603], ["2022-11-01", 0.604], ["2022-11-02", 0.604], ["2022-11-04", 0.603], ["2022-11-05", 0.593], ["2022-11-06", 0.593], ["2022-11-08", 0.593], ["2022-11-08", 0.595], ["2022-11-08", 0.595], ["2022-11-08", 0.599], ["2022-11-09", 0.599], ["2022-11-09", 0.599], ["2022-11-09", 0.599], ["2022-11-09", 0.604], ["2022-11-09", 0.598], ["2022-11-09", 0.598], ["2022-11-09", 0.601], ["2022-11-09", 0.6], ["2022-11-09", 0.6], ["2022-11-09", 0.602], ["2022-11-09", 0.6], ["2022-11-09", 0.605], ["2022-11-09", 0.607], ["2022-11-09", 0.613], ["2022-11-09", 0.615], ["2022-11-09", 0.615], ["2022-11-09", 0.616], ["2022-11-09", 0.618], ["2022-11-09", 0.621], ["2022-11-09", 0.621], ["2022-11-09", 0.624], ["2022-11-09", 0.625], ["2022-11-10", 0.629], ["2022-11-10", 0.629], ["2022-11-10", 0.631], ["2022-11-10", 0.633], ["2022-11-10", 0.635], ["2022-11-10", 0.637], ["2022-11-10", 0.641], ["2022-11-10", 0.646], ["2022-11-10", 0.647], ["2022-11-10", 0.648], ["2022-11-10", 0.651], ["2022-11-10", 0.653], ["2022-11-11", 0.653], ["2022-11-12", 0.656], ["2022-11-12", 0.656], ["2022-11-13", 0.656], ["2022-11-13", 0.656], ["2022-11-14", 0.657]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12223/ | The Transparent Replications Project by Clearer Thinking aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as any psychology papers recently published in Nature or Science. | Social Sciences | We selected study 2A from a Nature paper entitled: "Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity" (Shah and LaForest, 2022).
The original study’s main hypothesis is that
people believe it is more likely that another person will detect their lie if they are given information about that other person than if they are not. See more details on the study in the fine print.
click for a higher-resolution version
To test the main hypothesis, the original experiment and the replication study used two-tailed independent samples t-tests. The analysis compared participants in the information and no information conditions on the question of how likely they believed their ‘partner’ would be to detect their lie, in order to determine if having information about their ‘partner’ changed people’s estimate of the likelihood that their lie would be detected.
The original study found a significant difference between participants in the two experimental conditions, with participants in the information condition thinking that their partner was more likely to detect their lie (mean estimated probability, M_info = 41.06% [37.76–44.35%], n = 228) than participants in the no information condition (M_(no info) = 33.29% [30.34–36.24%], n = 234); Welch’s t: t(453.20) = 3.44; p <0.001; Effect size: d = 0.32.
Will the main result from “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?
This question will resolve positively if a two-tailed Welch’s t-test conducted on the replication experiment data reveals that there is a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) between the mean probability that participants assign to their ‘partner’ detecting their lie in the two experimental conditions (with a higher probability assigned by participants in the Information Condition compared to participants in the No Information condition). Otherwise, it will resolve negatively.
Study summary
The original study (N = 462) and the replication study (N = 475) examined whether people assigned a higher probability to another person detecting their lie if they were given information about that other person than if they were not (see the flowchart below).
In the replication experiment, like in the original study: Participants were asked to write 5 statements about themselves: 4 truths and 1 lie. They were told those statements would be shared with another person, who would then guess which one was the lie. Participants were either given 4 true statements about their ‘partner’ (Information Condition), or they were given no information about their ‘partner’ (No Information Condition). Participants were asked to assign a percentage chance describing how likely their ‘partner’ would be to detect their lie.*
Out of 481 participants, 6 were excluded due to missing inputs/data, leaving 475 participants. Participants could not proceed in the experiment if they left any of those statements blank, but there was no automated check on the content of what was submitted. The authors of the original study did not remove any subjects from their analysis, but they recommended to the Clearer Thinking team to do this quality check in the replication.
In the replication, prior to asking people to give their estimated percentage, participants were reminded that their 'partner' was shown their 5 statements and not told which were true. This was done in case participants had forgotten the conditions of the experiment. In the original study, this reminder had not been provided.
In the original experiment and in the replication, participants were not actually connected to a ‘partner.’ Participants in the information condition were randomly given one of two sets of four pre-generated statements designed to be relatively neutral and told that these were four true statements supplied by their ‘partner.' They were informed about this after all participants had completed the experiment.
Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?
In one historical project that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, analysis indicated that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)
In another project, researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used. | true | 2022-11-14 | Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2022-08-18 | ["https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strike-in-uk-general-strike-teacher-rail-transport-industrial-action/", "https://ground.news/article/cost-of-living-almost-half-of-working-age-households-behind-on-or-struggling-with-housing-costs?utm_source=headline-link&utm_medium=share", "https://ground.news/article/6b5cd4f3-2ca0-40e5-9edc-d32f26a42e1a", "https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/redfield-wilton-polling-cost-of-living-rise-crisis-public-disorder-riots", "https://ground.news/article/a-third-of-brits-are-giving-up-gym-memberships-due-to-cost-of-living-worries?utm_source=headline-link&utm_medium=share", "https://dontpay.uk", "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243", "https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1567067323000832004", "https://www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-the-uks-wet-and-warm-winter-of-2019-20/", "https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/09/02/dont-pay-why-are-brits-boycotting-energy-payments-and-what-are-the-consequences", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/07b8a936-2bb9-11ed-b39f-ae396665d39a?shareToken=31d30babebe4aac0935a031190c02978", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/truss-earmarks-130-billion-to-keep-uk-energy-bills-below-2-000?sref=PFCuwcPr&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-bloomberguk&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=bloomberguk", "https://youtu.be/u0G7M8mEOzY?t=80", "https://www.ft.com/content/4f55f312-6478-4920-a911-ac023ae006aa", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/goldman-sachs-says-uk-inflation-is-at-risk-of-topping-22", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-29/goldman-now-sees-uk-economy-entering-recession-in-fourth-quarter-l7e4vyuv", "https://www.ft.com/content/7ac09a84-0322-45c8-9167-3c24ddb06525", "https://www.ft.com/content/aed8ab8d-70dc-4554-897c-a87fd2d6821e", "https://www.ft.com/content/4f55f312-6478-4920-a911-ac023ae006aa", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62634795", "https://www.ft.com/content/778e65e1-6ec5-4fd7-98d5-9d701eb29567", "https://twitter.com/AlexPalcuie/status/1561633533772414977", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom"] | binary | [["2022-08-24", 0.01], ["2022-08-26", 0.278], ["2022-08-27", 0.262], ["2022-08-29", 0.297], ["2022-08-31", 0.363], ["2022-09-01", 0.355], ["2022-09-03", 0.357], ["2022-09-04", 0.38], ["2022-09-05", 0.352], ["2022-09-06", 0.326], ["2022-09-08", 0.283], ["2022-09-09", 0.265], ["2022-09-10", 0.262], ["2022-09-12", 0.262], ["2022-09-13", 0.261], ["2022-09-15", 0.261], ["2022-09-18", 0.258], ["2022-09-20", 0.256], ["2022-09-22", 0.251], ["2022-09-23", 0.249], ["2022-09-24", 0.249], ["2022-09-25", 0.251], ["2022-09-27", 0.253], ["2022-09-28", 0.251], ["2022-10-02", 0.252], ["2022-10-04", 0.251], ["2022-10-09", 0.25], ["2022-10-10", 0.253], ["2022-10-16", 0.253], ["2022-10-17", 0.253], ["2022-10-21", 0.253], ["2022-10-21", 0.254], ["2022-10-23", 0.253], ["2022-10-25", 0.253], ["2022-10-26", 0.253], ["2022-10-30", 0.251], ["2022-10-31", 0.251], ["2022-11-01", 0.251], ["2022-11-03", 0.248], ["2022-11-05", 0.242], ["2022-11-06", 0.245], ["2022-11-07", 0.245], ["2022-11-11", 0.245], ["2022-11-12", 0.245], ["2022-11-14", 0.245], ["2022-11-16", 0.245], ["2022-11-18", 0.244], ["2022-11-20", 0.244], ["2022-11-25", 0.244], ["2022-11-26", 0.242], ["2022-12-01", 0.242], ["2022-12-02", 0.241], ["2022-12-09", 0.241], ["2022-12-09", 0.24], ["2022-12-11", 0.24], ["2022-12-12", 0.237], ["2022-12-14", 0.237], ["2022-12-20", 0.238], ["2022-12-26", 0.238], ["2022-12-28", 0.234], ["2022-12-30", 0.233], ["2023-01-01", 0.232], ["2023-01-02", 0.231], ["2023-01-04", 0.225], ["2023-01-04", 0.226], ["2023-01-06", 0.222], ["2023-01-07", 0.218], ["2023-01-08", 0.216], ["2023-01-10", 0.216], ["2023-01-11", 0.215], ["2023-01-13", 0.208], ["2023-01-14", 0.206], ["2023-01-16", 0.205], ["2023-01-17", 0.197], ["2023-01-18", 0.194], ["2023-01-19", 0.194], ["2023-01-20", 0.192], ["2023-01-22", 0.189], ["2023-01-24", 0.187], ["2023-01-25", 0.185], ["2023-01-27", 0.181], ["2023-01-28", 0.176], ["2023-01-30", 0.172], ["2023-01-31", 0.171], ["2023-02-01", 0.171], ["2023-02-03", 0.167], ["2023-02-04", 0.166], ["2023-02-06", 0.154], ["2023-02-08", 0.148], ["2023-02-09", 0.146], ["2023-02-11", 0.143], ["2023-02-13", 0.143], ["2023-02-15", 0.139], ["2023-02-16", 0.137], ["2023-02-18", 0.132], ["2023-02-20", 0.13], ["2023-02-21", 0.128], ["2023-02-23", 0.127], ["2023-02-25", 0.126], ["2023-02-27", 0.125], ["2023-02-28", 0.089]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12275/ | The UK cost of living crisis is a period starting in 2021 in which prices for many essential goods in the United Kingdom began increasing faster than household income, resulting in a fall in real income. This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in the UK. While all in the UK are affected by rising prices, it most substantially affects low-income persons. Her Majesty's Government has responded in various ways, such as by making provision for a £650 grant for each of the UK's lower income households.
Energy prices have been forecasted to hit £5000 by the end of the year. The current Prime Minister has resigned, serving as a caretaker, while the Conservatives are in the process of electing a new leader.
Martin Lewis, the second most popular TV personality has claimed that the upcoming crisis "will leave many destitute".
Britain has had riots where more than 100 people have been injured like the Poll Tax riots, the 2011 England Riots and the 1995 Brixton Riot. However, the anti-austerity protests and the 2010 student protests while meaningful, did not lead to very many people getting injured. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if three popular British broadsheet newspapers report at least 100 people injured in cost of living crisis riots over the coming autumn or winter. The news reports should be dated between August 22, 2022 and March 1, 2023.
Fine Print
The protests should be related to the cost of living crisis. For example, if England loses to the final in the World Cup because of a referee mistake and protests erupt, this will not affect the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-08-19 | ["https://www.facebook.com/thejudiciarykenya/posts/pfbid027KjfgTwtg3E9PbGwaSjf1AZEY521voZQpnfofZmdj9Gi1yWSrKVCnDqV6o4k7eeJl", "https://www.facebook.com/thejudiciarykenya/videos/442052237882594", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62785434", "https://nation.africa/kenya/videos/news/judgment-day-supreme-court-issues-verdict-on-election-petition-3937402", "https://ke.usembassy.gov/security-alert-for-u-s-citizens-kenya-supreme-court-ruling/", "https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/kenya-poll-petition-the-9-issues-to-the-judges-will-consider-3931188"] | binary | [["2022-08-22", 0.6], ["2022-08-22", 0.35], ["2022-08-22", 0.35], ["2022-08-22", 0.42], ["2022-08-22", 0.42], ["2022-08-23", 0.443], ["2022-08-23", 0.466], ["2022-08-23", 0.521], ["2022-08-24", 0.523], ["2022-08-25", 0.523], ["2022-08-25", 0.514], ["2022-08-25", 0.511], ["2022-08-25", 0.495], ["2022-08-26", 0.495], ["2022-08-26", 0.498], ["2022-08-26", 0.498], ["2022-08-28", 0.489], ["2022-08-30", 0.49], ["2022-08-30", 0.491], ["2022-08-30", 0.491], ["2022-08-30", 0.492], ["2022-08-30", 0.492], ["2022-08-31", 0.485], ["2022-08-31", 0.484], ["2022-08-31", 0.504], ["2022-09-01", 0.504], ["2022-09-01", 0.507], ["2022-09-02", 0.499]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12286/ | The New York Times and Kenya's Nation have reported that William Ruto is the President-Elect of Kenya after winning the general election by just over 200,000 votes.
The results weren't without some controversy. Four commissioners from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) refused to back the result after saying final tallying was conducted in an opaque manner.
Kenyan elections allow any citizen group to bring a challenge within seven days of an election result. The Supreme Court would then have two weeks to rule on the challenge. A decision by the court to nullify the results would require a new vote to be held within 60 days. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if the Supreme Court nullifies the results of the 2022 Kenyan Presidential Election. The question will resolve based on official communication from the Kenyan Supreme Court. The question will resolve as No if either there is no challenge, the Supreme Court does not rule on the election results, or the Court upholds the results | true | 2022-09-06 | Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-22 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.14], ["2022-09-04", 0.095], ["2022-09-04", 0.096], ["2022-09-05", 0.112], ["2022-09-05", 0.134], ["2022-09-06", 0.136], ["2022-09-07", 0.151], ["2022-09-07", 0.147], ["2022-09-11", 0.147], ["2022-09-12", 0.145], ["2022-09-17", 0.145], ["2022-09-21", 0.145], ["2022-09-22", 0.159], ["2022-09-24", 0.166], ["2022-09-26", 0.166], ["2022-10-07", 0.166], ["2022-10-14", 0.168], ["2022-10-16", 0.171], ["2022-10-17", 0.171], ["2022-10-17", 0.173], ["2022-10-20", 0.175], ["2022-10-22", 0.183], ["2022-10-23", 0.182], ["2022-10-25", 0.208], ["2022-10-25", 0.211], ["2022-10-26", 0.215], ["2022-10-27", 0.217], ["2022-10-27", 0.219], ["2022-10-29", 0.219], ["2022-10-30", 0.222], ["2022-10-31", 0.222], ["2022-11-01", 0.222], ["2022-11-01", 0.222], ["2022-11-03", 0.222], ["2022-11-03", 0.224], ["2022-11-06", 0.225], ["2022-11-07", 0.22], ["2022-11-07", 0.214], ["2022-11-08", 0.207], ["2022-11-09", 0.207], ["2022-11-11", 0.207], ["2022-11-12", 0.211], ["2022-11-12", 0.211], ["2022-11-13", 0.212], ["2022-11-13", 0.212], ["2022-11-15", 0.212], ["2022-11-16", 0.208], ["2022-11-17", 0.208], ["2022-11-23", 0.209], ["2022-11-25", 0.209], ["2022-11-30", 0.209], ["2022-11-30", 0.206], ["2022-12-03", 0.207], ["2022-12-04", 0.207], ["2022-12-05", 0.207], ["2022-12-05", 0.206], ["2022-12-06", 0.201], ["2022-12-06", 0.206], ["2022-12-07", 0.206], ["2022-12-07", 0.209], ["2022-12-10", 0.209], ["2022-12-11", 0.209], ["2022-12-12", 0.215], ["2022-12-13", 0.216], ["2022-12-13", 0.216], ["2022-12-16", 0.213], ["2022-12-17", 0.213], ["2022-12-20", 0.214], ["2022-12-20", 0.207], ["2022-12-20", 0.211], ["2022-12-22", 0.211], ["2022-12-22", 0.214], ["2022-12-23", 0.22], ["2022-12-23", 0.22], ["2022-12-24", 0.223], ["2022-12-27", 0.223], ["2022-12-27", 0.222], ["2022-12-28", 0.226], ["2023-01-01", 0.229], ["2023-01-04", 0.229], ["2023-01-06", 0.229], ["2023-01-08", 0.23], ["2023-01-08", 0.229], ["2023-01-09", 0.226], ["2023-01-09", 0.223], ["2023-01-10", 0.226], ["2023-01-14", 0.226], ["2023-01-15", 0.224], ["2023-01-15", 0.225], ["2023-01-15", 0.224], ["2023-01-16", 0.233], ["2023-01-16", 0.235], ["2023-01-17", 0.227], ["2023-01-17", 0.227], ["2023-01-18", 0.233], ["2023-01-19", 0.233], ["2023-01-20", 0.232], ["2023-01-21", 0.232], ["2023-01-22", 0.231], ["2023-01-22", 0.226], ["2023-01-22", 0.219]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12364/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Buffalo Bills win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-15 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.037], ["2022-09-04", 0.032], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-05", 0.03], ["2022-09-05", 0.027], ["2022-09-05", 0.027], ["2022-09-05", 0.026], ["2022-09-05", 0.029], ["2022-09-07", 0.029], ["2022-09-11", 0.028], ["2022-09-17", 0.026], ["2022-09-24", 0.028], ["2022-10-04", 0.028], ["2022-10-07", 0.028], ["2022-10-14", 0.027], ["2022-10-25", 0.025], ["2022-10-26", 0.066], ["2022-10-29", 0.062], ["2022-10-31", 0.063], ["2022-11-01", 0.063], ["2022-11-06", 0.063], ["2022-11-07", 0.065], ["2022-11-08", 0.065], ["2022-11-11", 0.066], ["2022-11-11", 0.066], ["2022-11-12", 0.063], ["2022-11-12", 0.063], ["2022-11-13", 0.061], ["2022-11-15", 0.061], ["2022-11-16", 0.064], ["2022-11-22", 0.064], ["2022-11-25", 0.064], ["2022-11-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-30", 0.066], ["2022-12-05", 0.065], ["2022-12-05", 0.063], ["2022-12-06", 0.063], ["2022-12-07", 0.077], ["2022-12-07", 0.077], ["2022-12-07", 0.071], ["2022-12-07", 0.071], ["2022-12-10", 0.07], ["2022-12-10", 0.07], ["2022-12-10", 0.07], ["2022-12-11", 0.07], ["2022-12-12", 0.081], ["2022-12-13", 0.08], ["2022-12-16", 0.08], ["2022-12-19", 0.067], ["2022-12-20", 0.067], ["2022-12-20", 0.064], ["2022-12-20", 0.063], ["2022-12-21", 0.061], ["2022-12-22", 0.061], ["2022-12-22", 0.061], ["2022-12-22", 0.062], ["2022-12-23", 0.062], ["2022-12-26", 0.063], ["2022-12-27", 0.061], ["2022-12-27", 0.061], ["2023-01-01", 0.06], ["2023-01-06", 0.057], ["2023-01-07", 0.057], ["2023-01-07", 0.056], ["2023-01-08", 0.056], ["2023-01-09", 0.053], ["2023-01-09", 0.053], ["2023-01-09", 0.052], ["2023-01-09", 0.059], ["2023-01-10", 0.059], ["2023-01-14", 0.059], ["2023-01-15", 0.059], ["2023-01-15", 0.059]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12365/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Miami Dolphins win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-08 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.033], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-05", 0.032], ["2022-09-05", 0.032], ["2022-09-05", 0.029], ["2022-09-05", 0.031], ["2022-09-07", 0.03], ["2022-09-11", 0.029], ["2022-09-17", 0.035], ["2022-09-24", 0.034], ["2022-10-07", 0.033], ["2022-10-25", 0.033], ["2022-10-26", 0.081], ["2022-11-01", 0.076], ["2022-11-12", 0.073], ["2022-11-12", 0.073], ["2022-11-13", 0.07], ["2022-11-25", 0.07], ["2022-12-05", 0.067], ["2022-12-05", 0.067], ["2022-12-07", 0.079], ["2022-12-07", 0.079], ["2022-12-07", 0.076], ["2022-12-07", 0.071], ["2022-12-08", 0.069], ["2022-12-08", 0.069], ["2022-12-10", 0.067], ["2022-12-12", 0.063], ["2022-12-16", 0.061], ["2022-12-16", 0.061], ["2022-12-20", 0.059], ["2022-12-20", 0.057], ["2022-12-22", 0.056], ["2022-12-22", 0.056], ["2022-12-23", 0.056], ["2022-12-26", 0.055], ["2022-12-27", 0.054], ["2023-01-01", 0.054], ["2023-01-03", 0.051], ["2023-01-06", 0.051], ["2023-01-07", 0.05], ["2023-01-08", 0.05], ["2023-01-08", 0.05]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12366/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will New England Patriots win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-04", 0.024], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-06", 0.021], ["2022-09-07", 0.02], ["2022-09-07", 0.02], ["2022-09-11", 0.018], ["2022-09-17", 0.018], ["2022-10-07", 0.017], ["2022-10-25", 0.017], ["2022-10-26", 0.055], ["2022-11-01", 0.055], ["2022-11-09", 0.056], ["2022-11-12", 0.053], ["2022-11-12", 0.053], ["2022-11-13", 0.051], ["2022-11-18", 0.048], ["2022-11-22", 0.048], ["2022-11-25", 0.048], ["2022-12-05", 0.046], ["2022-12-05", 0.046], ["2022-12-07", 0.044], ["2022-12-07", 0.06], ["2022-12-07", 0.058], ["2022-12-07", 0.054], ["2022-12-08", 0.054], ["2022-12-10", 0.052], ["2022-12-12", 0.049], ["2022-12-16", 0.049], ["2022-12-20", 0.046], ["2022-12-20", 0.046], ["2022-12-22", 0.044], ["2022-12-27", 0.043], ["2023-01-01", 0.043]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12367/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will New York Jets win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-16 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.047], ["2022-09-04", 0.047], ["2022-09-04", 0.048], ["2022-09-05", 0.053], ["2022-09-05", 0.053], ["2022-09-05", 0.065], ["2022-09-06", 0.063], ["2022-09-07", 0.063], ["2022-09-11", 0.059], ["2022-09-17", 0.058], ["2022-09-18", 0.058], ["2022-10-04", 0.058], ["2022-10-05", 0.058], ["2022-10-07", 0.058], ["2022-10-25", 0.058], ["2022-10-26", 0.099], ["2022-10-28", 0.099], ["2022-10-29", 0.099], ["2022-11-01", 0.099], ["2022-11-06", 0.099], ["2022-11-07", 0.099], ["2022-11-09", 0.1], ["2022-11-11", 0.102], ["2022-11-11", 0.103], ["2022-11-11", 0.105], ["2022-11-12", 0.102], ["2022-11-12", 0.102], ["2022-11-12", 0.104], ["2022-11-13", 0.104], ["2022-11-13", 0.108], ["2022-11-13", 0.108], ["2022-11-16", 0.106], ["2022-11-22", 0.105], ["2022-11-25", 0.105], ["2022-11-30", 0.104], ["2022-12-02", 0.104], ["2022-12-03", 0.103], ["2022-12-05", 0.102], ["2022-12-05", 0.101], ["2022-12-06", 0.101], ["2022-12-06", 0.101], ["2022-12-06", 0.101], ["2022-12-07", 0.113], ["2022-12-07", 0.108], ["2022-12-07", 0.105], ["2022-12-07", 0.105], ["2022-12-10", 0.101], ["2022-12-11", 0.101], ["2022-12-12", 0.101], ["2022-12-13", 0.11], ["2022-12-13", 0.111], ["2022-12-16", 0.111], ["2022-12-16", 0.107], ["2022-12-19", 0.105], ["2022-12-20", 0.104], ["2022-12-20", 0.104], ["2022-12-20", 0.127], ["2022-12-22", 0.104], ["2022-12-27", 0.101], ["2022-12-28", 0.101], ["2022-12-28", 0.1], ["2023-01-02", 0.1], ["2023-01-04", 0.099], ["2023-01-06", 0.099], ["2023-01-06", 0.099], ["2023-01-08", 0.099], ["2023-01-08", 0.098], ["2023-01-08", 0.096], ["2023-01-09", 0.095], ["2023-01-09", 0.095], ["2023-01-09", 0.094], ["2023-01-09", 0.094], ["2023-01-10", 0.093], ["2023-01-10", 0.092], ["2023-01-11", 0.092], ["2023-01-15", 0.089], ["2023-01-15", 0.09], ["2023-01-15", 0.089], ["2023-01-16", 0.087], ["2023-01-16", 0.086]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12368/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-30 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-05", 0.052], ["2022-09-05", 0.049], ["2022-09-05", 0.068], ["2022-09-06", 0.068], ["2022-09-07", 0.062], ["2022-09-11", 0.062], ["2022-09-17", 0.06], ["2022-09-24", 0.058], ["2022-10-04", 0.061], ["2022-10-07", 0.059], ["2022-10-14", 0.059], ["2022-10-19", 0.058], ["2022-10-19", 0.058], ["2022-10-25", 0.058], ["2022-10-26", 0.093], ["2022-10-29", 0.093], ["2022-10-30", 0.097], ["2022-10-30", 0.097], ["2022-10-30", 0.098], ["2022-11-01", 0.097], ["2022-11-01", 0.097], ["2022-11-07", 0.095], ["2022-11-11", 0.095], ["2022-11-12", 0.096], ["2022-11-12", 0.091], ["2022-11-12", 0.091], ["2022-11-13", 0.091], ["2022-11-13", 0.091], ["2022-11-22", 0.088], ["2022-11-25", 0.088], ["2022-11-30", 0.089], ["2022-12-05", 0.086], ["2022-12-05", 0.084], ["2022-12-06", 0.084], ["2022-12-07", 0.085], ["2022-12-07", 0.08], ["2022-12-08", 0.08], ["2022-12-10", 0.08], ["2022-12-10", 0.08], ["2022-12-11", 0.08], ["2022-12-12", 0.08], ["2022-12-13", 0.091], ["2022-12-16", 0.089], ["2022-12-20", 0.089], ["2022-12-20", 0.09], ["2022-12-20", 0.088], ["2022-12-22", 0.088], ["2022-12-22", 0.097], ["2022-12-22", 0.097], ["2022-12-23", 0.098], ["2022-12-26", 0.1], ["2022-12-27", 0.1], ["2023-01-04", 0.1], ["2023-01-06", 0.1], ["2023-01-08", 0.099], ["2023-01-08", 0.099], ["2023-01-09", 0.098], ["2023-01-09", 0.099], ["2023-01-09", 0.099], ["2023-01-15", 0.099], ["2023-01-15", 0.103], ["2023-01-16", 0.113], ["2023-01-16", 0.106], ["2023-01-16", 0.106], ["2023-01-16", 0.109], ["2023-01-16", 0.109], ["2023-01-17", 0.104], ["2023-01-17", 0.105], ["2023-01-17", 0.105], ["2023-01-18", 0.103], ["2023-01-18", 0.103], ["2023-01-19", 0.101], ["2023-01-20", 0.101], ["2023-01-21", 0.103], ["2023-01-22", 0.103], ["2023-01-22", 0.101], ["2023-01-22", 0.101], ["2023-01-23", 0.116], ["2023-01-23", 0.132], ["2023-01-23", 0.139], ["2023-01-23", 0.139], ["2023-01-23", 0.147], ["2023-01-24", 0.154], ["2023-01-24", 0.154], ["2023-01-24", 0.167], ["2023-01-25", 0.17], ["2023-01-25", 0.171], ["2023-01-26", 0.174], ["2023-01-26", 0.177], ["2023-01-26", 0.178], ["2023-01-27", 0.19], ["2023-01-28", 0.172], ["2023-01-28", 0.174], ["2023-01-28", 0.174], ["2023-01-29", 0.178], ["2023-01-29", 0.178], ["2023-01-30", 0.176]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12369/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.035], ["2022-09-04", 0.033], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-05", 0.027], ["2022-09-05", 0.026], ["2022-09-05", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.028], ["2022-09-07", 0.027], ["2022-09-11", 0.027], ["2022-09-17", 0.025], ["2022-09-24", 0.026], ["2022-10-04", 0.026], ["2022-10-07", 0.025], ["2022-10-14", 0.025], ["2022-10-25", 0.065], ["2022-10-26", 0.061], ["2022-11-01", 0.061], ["2022-11-12", 0.058], ["2022-11-12", 0.058], ["2022-11-13", 0.056], ["2022-11-18", 0.053], ["2022-11-25", 0.053], ["2022-11-28", 0.052], ["2022-11-28", 0.052], ["2022-12-05", 0.049], ["2022-12-05", 0.048], ["2022-12-07", 0.048], ["2022-12-07", 0.046], ["2022-12-07", 0.043], ["2022-12-08", 0.041], ["2022-12-10", 0.041], ["2022-12-10", 0.04], ["2022-12-11", 0.04], ["2022-12-12", 0.039], ["2022-12-16", 0.038], ["2022-12-20", 0.036], ["2022-12-20", 0.035], ["2022-12-22", 0.034], ["2022-12-23", 0.033]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12370/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Cleveland Browns win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-08 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-04", 0.024], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-06", 0.024], ["2022-09-07", 0.023], ["2022-09-11", 0.023], ["2022-09-17", 0.023], ["2022-10-07", 0.022], ["2022-10-25", 0.071], ["2022-10-26", 0.071], ["2022-11-01", 0.067], ["2022-11-12", 0.063], ["2022-11-12", 0.063], ["2022-11-12", 0.062], ["2022-11-13", 0.061], ["2022-11-13", 0.058], ["2022-11-18", 0.056], ["2022-11-25", 0.056], ["2022-11-28", 0.054], ["2022-12-05", 0.052], ["2022-12-05", 0.05], ["2022-12-07", 0.05], ["2022-12-07", 0.046], ["2022-12-08", 0.045], ["2022-12-10", 0.043], ["2022-12-11", 0.043], ["2022-12-12", 0.043], ["2022-12-16", 0.04], ["2022-12-20", 0.04], ["2022-12-20", 0.038], ["2022-12-22", 0.038], ["2022-12-28", 0.036], ["2022-12-28", 0.036], ["2023-01-01", 0.035], ["2023-01-03", 0.034], ["2023-01-06", 0.034]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12371/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-06", 0.023], ["2022-09-07", 0.022], ["2022-09-11", 0.022], ["2022-09-17", 0.023], ["2022-10-07", 0.022], ["2022-10-09", 0.022], ["2022-10-11", 0.02], ["2022-10-25", 0.059], ["2022-10-26", 0.059], ["2022-11-01", 0.056], ["2022-11-12", 0.056], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-11-13", 0.049], ["2022-11-25", 0.055], ["2022-11-28", 0.054]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12372/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Houston Texans win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-23 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.045], ["2022-09-04", 0.045], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-05", 0.045], ["2022-09-05", 0.044], ["2022-09-05", 0.044], ["2022-09-05", 0.044], ["2022-09-07", 0.044], ["2022-09-11", 0.044], ["2022-09-17", 0.044], ["2022-09-24", 0.042], ["2022-10-07", 0.04], ["2022-10-25", 0.087], ["2022-10-26", 0.082], ["2022-11-01", 0.075], ["2022-11-12", 0.075], ["2022-11-12", 0.069], ["2022-11-12", 0.069], ["2022-11-13", 0.069], ["2022-11-13", 0.066], ["2022-11-25", 0.066], ["2022-12-05", 0.069], ["2022-12-05", 0.066], ["2022-12-07", 0.063], ["2022-12-07", 0.06], ["2022-12-08", 0.06], ["2022-12-08", 0.058], ["2022-12-08", 0.058], ["2022-12-08", 0.054], ["2022-12-10", 0.053], ["2022-12-10", 0.053], ["2022-12-11", 0.05], ["2022-12-12", 0.049], ["2022-12-16", 0.047], ["2022-12-20", 0.046], ["2022-12-20", 0.044], ["2022-12-22", 0.043]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12373/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-22 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-04", 0.024], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-07", 0.019], ["2022-09-11", 0.017], ["2022-09-17", 0.017], ["2022-10-07", 0.017], ["2022-10-25", 0.058], ["2022-10-26", 0.055], ["2022-11-01", 0.055], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-11-13", 0.049], ["2022-11-18", 0.047], ["2022-11-25", 0.047], ["2022-11-28", 0.047], ["2022-12-05", 0.044], ["2022-12-05", 0.042], ["2022-12-07", 0.041], ["2022-12-07", 0.041], ["2022-12-08", 0.038], ["2022-12-10", 0.038], ["2022-12-12", 0.037], ["2022-12-16", 0.035], ["2022-12-20", 0.035], ["2022-12-20", 0.033], ["2022-12-22", 0.032], ["2022-12-24", 0.032], ["2022-12-27", 0.032], ["2022-12-28", 0.032], ["2022-12-28", 0.032], ["2022-12-28", 0.032], ["2023-01-01", 0.031], ["2023-01-02", 0.033], ["2023-01-06", 0.033], ["2023-01-08", 0.031], ["2023-01-09", 0.031], ["2023-01-14", 0.032], ["2023-01-15", 0.032], ["2023-01-15", 0.038], ["2023-01-15", 0.038], ["2023-01-16", 0.037], ["2023-01-16", 0.037], ["2023-01-17", 0.038], ["2023-01-18", 0.04], ["2023-01-19", 0.039], ["2023-01-21", 0.039]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12374/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-08 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.033], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.034], ["2022-09-05", 0.032], ["2022-09-05", 0.03], ["2022-09-05", 0.029], ["2022-09-05", 0.029], ["2022-09-07", 0.029], ["2022-09-07", 0.03], ["2022-09-11", 0.03], ["2022-09-17", 0.029], ["2022-09-24", 0.029], ["2022-09-26", 0.028], ["2022-10-04", 0.029], ["2022-10-07", 0.029], ["2022-10-25", 0.028], ["2022-10-26", 0.067], ["2022-10-29", 0.067], ["2022-10-30", 0.067], ["2022-10-31", 0.068], ["2022-11-01", 0.069], ["2022-11-01", 0.068], ["2022-11-01", 0.069], ["2022-11-03", 0.069], ["2022-11-03", 0.071], ["2022-11-07", 0.071], ["2022-11-09", 0.071], ["2022-11-11", 0.07], ["2022-11-12", 0.07], ["2022-11-12", 0.069], ["2022-11-13", 0.067], ["2022-11-16", 0.067], ["2022-11-22", 0.068], ["2022-11-25", 0.068], ["2022-12-05", 0.065], ["2022-12-05", 0.065], ["2022-12-05", 0.064], ["2022-12-06", 0.064], ["2022-12-07", 0.062], ["2022-12-07", 0.062], ["2022-12-08", 0.06], ["2022-12-10", 0.06], ["2022-12-10", 0.06], ["2022-12-10", 0.06], ["2022-12-11", 0.059], ["2022-12-12", 0.057], ["2022-12-13", 0.057], ["2022-12-16", 0.055], ["2022-12-20", 0.055], ["2022-12-20", 0.053], ["2022-12-20", 0.051], ["2022-12-21", 0.05], ["2022-12-22", 0.049], ["2022-12-22", 0.049], ["2022-12-22", 0.047], ["2022-12-22", 0.046], ["2022-12-23", 0.046], ["2022-12-26", 0.046], ["2022-12-28", 0.044], ["2023-01-01", 0.043], ["2023-01-03", 0.043], ["2023-01-04", 0.042], ["2023-01-06", 0.04], ["2023-01-07", 0.04]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12375/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Tennessee Titans win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-12 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.045], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-05", 0.053], ["2022-09-05", 0.053], ["2022-09-05", 0.05], ["2022-09-05", 0.067], ["2022-09-07", 0.063], ["2022-09-11", 0.06], ["2022-09-17", 0.057], ["2022-09-18", 0.056], ["2022-09-24", 0.055], ["2022-10-04", 0.054], ["2022-10-07", 0.054], ["2022-10-21", 0.052], ["2022-10-22", 0.052], ["2022-10-25", 0.052], ["2022-10-26", 0.099], ["2022-11-01", 0.093], ["2022-11-12", 0.093], ["2022-11-12", 0.086], ["2022-11-12", 0.086], ["2022-11-13", 0.086], ["2022-11-25", 0.083], ["2022-11-28", 0.083], ["2022-11-28", 0.081], ["2022-12-05", 0.081], ["2022-12-05", 0.074], ["2022-12-05", 0.074], ["2022-12-06", 0.073], ["2022-12-06", 0.071], ["2022-12-07", 0.068], ["2022-12-07", 0.065], ["2022-12-08", 0.065], ["2022-12-08", 0.061], ["2022-12-10", 0.061], ["2022-12-10", 0.06], ["2022-12-11", 0.058]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12376/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Denver Broncos win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-13 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.08], ["2022-09-04", 0.06], ["2022-09-05", 0.093], ["2022-09-07", 0.093], ["2022-09-11", 0.089], ["2022-09-17", 0.09], ["2022-09-24", 0.09], ["2022-09-24", 0.094], ["2022-09-27", 0.098], ["2022-10-04", 0.099], ["2022-10-07", 0.099], ["2022-10-16", 0.098], ["2022-10-16", 0.099], ["2022-10-20", 0.103], ["2022-10-22", 0.102], ["2022-10-22", 0.101], ["2022-10-23", 0.101], ["2022-10-25", 0.101], ["2022-10-26", 0.143], ["2022-10-28", 0.144], ["2022-10-29", 0.144], ["2022-10-31", 0.144], ["2022-11-01", 0.145], ["2022-11-01", 0.145], ["2022-11-03", 0.146], ["2022-11-03", 0.148], ["2022-11-06", 0.149], ["2022-11-07", 0.149], ["2022-11-08", 0.151], ["2022-11-09", 0.151], ["2022-11-11", 0.151], ["2022-11-12", 0.156], ["2022-11-12", 0.156], ["2022-11-14", 0.156], ["2022-11-16", 0.156], ["2022-11-18", 0.158], ["2022-11-22", 0.158], ["2022-11-25", 0.161], ["2022-11-26", 0.163], ["2022-11-30", 0.163], ["2022-11-30", 0.164], ["2022-12-03", 0.164], ["2022-12-03", 0.164], ["2022-12-05", 0.165], ["2022-12-06", 0.171], ["2022-12-07", 0.171], ["2022-12-08", 0.174], ["2022-12-10", 0.174], ["2022-12-11", 0.175], ["2022-12-12", 0.188], ["2022-12-13", 0.189], ["2022-12-16", 0.189], ["2022-12-16", 0.188], ["2022-12-20", 0.188], ["2022-12-20", 0.214], ["2022-12-22", 0.221], ["2022-12-23", 0.214], ["2022-12-24", 0.219], ["2022-12-25", 0.219], ["2022-12-26", 0.22], ["2022-12-27", 0.22], ["2022-12-28", 0.219], ["2023-01-01", 0.227], ["2023-01-05", 0.228], ["2023-01-06", 0.228], ["2023-01-06", 0.233], ["2023-01-08", 0.234], ["2023-01-09", 0.24], ["2023-01-09", 0.25], ["2023-01-10", 0.253], ["2023-01-15", 0.253], ["2023-01-16", 0.264], ["2023-01-17", 0.265], ["2023-01-17", 0.267], ["2023-01-18", 0.266], ["2023-01-19", 0.269], ["2023-01-22", 0.272], ["2023-01-22", 0.276], ["2023-01-23", 0.288], ["2023-01-25", 0.29], ["2023-01-25", 0.288], ["2023-01-26", 0.288], ["2023-01-27", 0.281], ["2023-01-28", 0.281], ["2023-01-29", 0.275], ["2023-01-29", 0.273], ["2023-01-30", 0.342], ["2023-01-31", 0.383], ["2023-02-01", 0.389], ["2023-02-01", 0.392], ["2023-02-02", 0.395], ["2023-02-03", 0.395], ["2023-02-04", 0.398], ["2023-02-05", 0.405], ["2023-02-07", 0.405], ["2023-02-08", 0.406], ["2023-02-09", 0.406], ["2023-02-10", 0.409], ["2023-02-11", 0.409], ["2023-02-12", 0.434], ["2023-02-13", 0.44]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12377/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-02 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.032], ["2022-09-04", 0.032], ["2022-09-04", 0.042], ["2022-09-05", 0.042], ["2022-09-05", 0.04], ["2022-09-05", 0.041], ["2022-09-05", 0.041], ["2022-09-07", 0.049], ["2022-09-11", 0.045], ["2022-09-17", 0.045], ["2022-09-18", 0.042], ["2022-09-18", 0.039], ["2022-09-24", 0.039], ["2022-09-30", 0.038], ["2022-10-07", 0.036], ["2022-10-22", 0.034], ["2022-10-25", 0.072], ["2022-10-26", 0.068], ["2022-11-01", 0.068], ["2022-11-12", 0.065], ["2022-11-12", 0.065], ["2022-11-13", 0.065], ["2022-11-25", 0.063], ["2022-11-28", 0.063], ["2022-11-28", 0.062], ["2022-12-05", 0.061], ["2022-12-05", 0.058], ["2022-12-05", 0.056], ["2022-12-06", 0.055], ["2022-12-07", 0.053], ["2022-12-07", 0.053], ["2022-12-08", 0.051], ["2022-12-10", 0.05], ["2022-12-10", 0.048], ["2022-12-12", 0.046], ["2022-12-16", 0.045], ["2022-12-20", 0.045], ["2022-12-20", 0.043], ["2022-12-22", 0.041], ["2022-12-23", 0.041], ["2022-12-26", 0.04], ["2022-12-28", 0.04], ["2023-01-01", 0.038]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12378/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-15 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.06], ["2022-09-03", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.055], ["2022-09-05", 0.055], ["2022-09-05", 0.057], ["2022-09-05", 0.057], ["2022-09-05", 0.058], ["2022-09-07", 0.07], ["2022-09-11", 0.068], ["2022-09-17", 0.071], ["2022-10-04", 0.069], ["2022-10-07", 0.069], ["2022-10-25", 0.106], ["2022-10-25", 0.108], ["2022-10-26", 0.108], ["2022-10-27", 0.102], ["2022-10-29", 0.102], ["2022-10-30", 0.102], ["2022-11-01", 0.101], ["2022-11-10", 0.102], ["2022-11-11", 0.102], ["2022-11-12", 0.102], ["2022-11-12", 0.097], ["2022-11-13", 0.095], ["2022-11-14", 0.095], ["2022-11-25", 0.095], ["2022-11-30", 0.095], ["2022-12-05", 0.094], ["2022-12-05", 0.091], ["2022-12-06", 0.088], ["2022-12-06", 0.087], ["2022-12-07", 0.087], ["2022-12-07", 0.083], ["2022-12-10", 0.079], ["2022-12-11", 0.079], ["2022-12-12", 0.079], ["2022-12-13", 0.077], ["2022-12-13", 0.077], ["2022-12-15", 0.076], ["2022-12-16", 0.075], ["2022-12-19", 0.071], ["2022-12-20", 0.071], ["2022-12-20", 0.069], ["2022-12-20", 0.067], ["2022-12-20", 0.065], ["2022-12-22", 0.064], ["2022-12-22", 0.065], ["2022-12-23", 0.065], ["2022-12-24", 0.063], ["2022-12-26", 0.072], ["2022-12-28", 0.072], ["2023-01-02", 0.068], ["2023-01-06", 0.066], ["2023-01-07", 0.066], ["2023-01-08", 0.064], ["2023-01-08", 0.064], ["2023-01-08", 0.063], ["2023-01-09", 0.062], ["2023-01-09", 0.062], ["2023-01-09", 0.062], ["2023-01-15", 0.063], ["2023-01-15", 0.06]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12379/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-23 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.038], ["2022-09-05", 0.045], ["2022-09-05", 0.042], ["2022-09-05", 0.06], ["2022-09-07", 0.06], ["2022-09-07", 0.059], ["2022-09-07", 0.06], ["2022-09-11", 0.061], ["2022-09-17", 0.057], ["2022-09-24", 0.054], ["2022-09-26", 0.053], ["2022-10-04", 0.053], ["2022-10-05", 0.057], ["2022-10-07", 0.056], ["2022-10-14", 0.059], ["2022-10-19", 0.058], ["2022-10-19", 0.059], ["2022-10-25", 0.105], ["2022-10-26", 0.105], ["2022-10-29", 0.105], ["2022-10-31", 0.106], ["2022-11-01", 0.107], ["2022-11-01", 0.107], ["2022-11-03", 0.108], ["2022-11-03", 0.109], ["2022-11-04", 0.109], ["2022-11-06", 0.109], ["2022-11-07", 0.109], ["2022-11-09", 0.11], ["2022-11-11", 0.109], ["2022-11-11", 0.11], ["2022-11-12", 0.11], ["2022-11-12", 0.111], ["2022-11-13", 0.112], ["2022-11-13", 0.114], ["2022-11-13", 0.114], ["2022-11-16", 0.111], ["2022-11-25", 0.111], ["2022-11-30", 0.111], ["2022-12-03", 0.112], ["2022-12-05", 0.117], ["2022-12-05", 0.111], ["2022-12-06", 0.111], ["2022-12-07", 0.113], ["2022-12-07", 0.115], ["2022-12-07", 0.114], ["2022-12-10", 0.115], ["2022-12-11", 0.118], ["2022-12-12", 0.118], ["2022-12-12", 0.127], ["2022-12-12", 0.128], ["2022-12-13", 0.128], ["2022-12-16", 0.127], ["2022-12-16", 0.126], ["2022-12-20", 0.125], ["2022-12-20", 0.121], ["2022-12-20", 0.121], ["2022-12-22", 0.124], ["2022-12-22", 0.124], ["2022-12-23", 0.124], ["2022-12-23", 0.125], ["2022-12-23", 0.126], ["2022-12-26", 0.125], ["2022-12-28", 0.123], ["2023-01-05", 0.122], ["2023-01-06", 0.12], ["2023-01-06", 0.122], ["2023-01-08", 0.122], ["2023-01-08", 0.123], ["2023-01-08", 0.118], ["2023-01-09", 0.125], ["2023-01-09", 0.125], ["2023-01-09", 0.124], ["2023-01-09", 0.127], ["2023-01-09", 0.124], ["2023-01-09", 0.116], ["2023-01-16", 0.116], ["2023-01-16", 0.116], ["2023-01-16", 0.113], ["2023-01-16", 0.112], ["2023-01-16", 0.112], ["2023-01-17", 0.111], ["2023-01-17", 0.111], ["2023-01-17", 0.111], ["2023-01-18", 0.112], ["2023-01-18", 0.112], ["2023-01-18", 0.115], ["2023-01-19", 0.115], ["2023-01-20", 0.115], ["2023-01-21", 0.117], ["2023-01-22", 0.117], ["2023-01-22", 0.112], ["2023-01-22", 0.112], ["2023-01-22", 0.112], ["2023-01-22", 0.114], ["2023-01-22", 0.114], ["2023-01-23", 0.114]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12380/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-22 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.021], ["2022-09-05", 0.021], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-07", 0.019], ["2022-09-07", 0.019], ["2022-09-11", 0.017], ["2022-09-17", 0.017], ["2022-10-07", 0.016], ["2022-10-25", 0.058], ["2022-10-26", 0.058], ["2022-10-29", 0.056], ["2022-10-30", 0.056], ["2022-11-01", 0.057], ["2022-11-01", 0.056], ["2022-11-03", 0.055], ["2022-11-07", 0.055], ["2022-11-12", 0.055], ["2022-11-12", 0.052], ["2022-11-13", 0.049], ["2022-11-25", 0.049], ["2022-12-05", 0.049], ["2022-12-05", 0.046], ["2022-12-07", 0.044], ["2022-12-07", 0.042], ["2022-12-08", 0.041], ["2022-12-10", 0.041], ["2022-12-12", 0.039], ["2022-12-16", 0.039], ["2022-12-19", 0.038], ["2022-12-20", 0.037], ["2022-12-20", 0.035], ["2022-12-22", 0.035], ["2022-12-22", 0.033], ["2022-12-28", 0.032], ["2023-01-01", 0.032], ["2023-01-02", 0.032], ["2023-01-08", 0.031], ["2023-01-09", 0.031], ["2023-01-09", 0.035], ["2023-01-09", 0.035], ["2023-01-15", 0.038], ["2023-01-16", 0.042], ["2023-01-16", 0.042], ["2023-01-16", 0.043], ["2023-01-16", 0.041], ["2023-01-17", 0.048], ["2023-01-17", 0.048], ["2023-01-18", 0.044], ["2023-01-18", 0.045], ["2023-01-18", 0.045], ["2023-01-19", 0.048], ["2023-01-21", 0.048], ["2023-01-22", 0.045]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12381/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will New York Giants win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-13 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.04], ["2022-09-05", 0.044], ["2022-09-05", 0.042], ["2022-09-07", 0.058], ["2022-09-11", 0.055], ["2022-09-17", 0.053], ["2022-09-24", 0.055], ["2022-10-04", 0.055], ["2022-10-07", 0.059], ["2022-10-14", 0.058], ["2022-10-20", 0.058], ["2022-10-22", 0.066], ["2022-10-22", 0.066], ["2022-10-25", 0.068], ["2022-10-26", 0.116], ["2022-10-28", 0.116], ["2022-10-29", 0.117], ["2022-10-31", 0.118], ["2022-11-01", 0.118], ["2022-11-01", 0.118], ["2022-11-03", 0.122], ["2022-11-03", 0.127], ["2022-11-04", 0.127], ["2022-11-06", 0.128], ["2022-11-07", 0.131], ["2022-11-08", 0.148], ["2022-11-08", 0.149], ["2022-11-09", 0.152], ["2022-11-10", 0.154], ["2022-11-11", 0.15], ["2022-11-12", 0.158], ["2022-11-13", 0.17], ["2022-11-13", 0.17], ["2022-11-16", 0.171], ["2022-11-18", 0.166], ["2022-11-22", 0.164], ["2022-11-25", 0.164], ["2022-11-25", 0.163], ["2022-11-30", 0.163], ["2022-12-02", 0.163], ["2022-12-05", 0.163], ["2022-12-06", 0.168], ["2022-12-07", 0.169], ["2022-12-07", 0.17], ["2022-12-10", 0.17], ["2022-12-11", 0.172], ["2022-12-12", 0.185], ["2022-12-13", 0.186], ["2022-12-16", 0.186], ["2022-12-19", 0.186], ["2022-12-20", 0.185], ["2022-12-20", 0.187], ["2022-12-22", 0.187], ["2022-12-22", 0.203], ["2022-12-23", 0.204], ["2022-12-27", 0.205], ["2022-12-27", 0.205], ["2022-12-28", 0.208], ["2022-12-29", 0.207], ["2023-01-01", 0.207], ["2023-01-02", 0.212], ["2023-01-03", 0.205], ["2023-01-05", 0.206], ["2023-01-06", 0.206], ["2023-01-06", 0.206], ["2023-01-08", 0.203], ["2023-01-09", 0.213], ["2023-01-09", 0.218], ["2023-01-15", 0.218], ["2023-01-16", 0.217], ["2023-01-17", 0.212], ["2023-01-17", 0.213], ["2023-01-18", 0.21], ["2023-01-21", 0.209], ["2023-01-22", 0.207], ["2023-01-22", 0.219], ["2023-01-23", 0.232], ["2023-01-24", 0.241], ["2023-01-24", 0.243], ["2023-01-25", 0.247], ["2023-01-25", 0.247], ["2023-01-26", 0.25], ["2023-01-27", 0.261], ["2023-01-28", 0.247], ["2023-01-29", 0.246], ["2023-01-29", 0.25], ["2023-01-30", 0.287], ["2023-01-31", 0.312], ["2023-02-01", 0.322], ["2023-02-01", 0.327], ["2023-02-02", 0.324], ["2023-02-02", 0.328], ["2023-02-03", 0.334], ["2023-02-04", 0.339], ["2023-02-05", 0.348], ["2023-02-07", 0.349], ["2023-02-09", 0.349], ["2023-02-10", 0.35], ["2023-02-11", 0.35], ["2023-02-12", 0.372], ["2023-02-13", 0.368]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12382/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-04", 0.023], ["2022-09-05", 0.021], ["2022-09-05", 0.021], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-07", 0.018], ["2022-09-11", 0.017], ["2022-09-17", 0.018], ["2022-09-24", 0.018], ["2022-10-07", 0.017], ["2022-10-09", 0.016], ["2022-10-22", 0.016], ["2022-10-25", 0.016], ["2022-10-26", 0.059], ["2022-11-01", 0.059], ["2022-11-12", 0.059], ["2022-11-12", 0.056], ["2022-11-13", 0.053], ["2022-11-25", 0.053], ["2022-12-05", 0.051], ["2022-12-05", 0.049], ["2022-12-05", 0.047], ["2022-12-07", 0.045], ["2022-12-07", 0.045], ["2022-12-08", 0.042], ["2022-12-10", 0.042], ["2022-12-12", 0.04], ["2022-12-16", 0.04], ["2022-12-20", 0.038], ["2022-12-20", 0.037], ["2022-12-22", 0.036], ["2022-12-28", 0.036], ["2023-01-01", 0.035]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12383/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Washington Commanders win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.023], ["2022-09-05", 0.021], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-06", 0.023], ["2022-09-07", 0.022], ["2022-09-11", 0.021], ["2022-09-12", 0.021], ["2022-09-17", 0.019], ["2022-09-18", 0.019], ["2022-10-07", 0.045], ["2022-10-20", 0.042], ["2022-10-25", 0.08], ["2022-10-26", 0.076], ["2022-10-27", 0.075], ["2022-11-01", 0.075], ["2022-11-12", 0.071], ["2022-11-12", 0.071], ["2022-11-13", 0.068], ["2022-11-18", 0.065], ["2022-11-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-28", 0.064]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12384/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Chicago Bears win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-09 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-05", 0.023], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-06", 0.021], ["2022-09-07", 0.021], ["2022-09-11", 0.02], ["2022-09-17", 0.02], ["2022-10-07", 0.019], ["2022-10-25", 0.019], ["2022-10-26", 0.057], ["2022-11-01", 0.057], ["2022-11-12", 0.054], ["2022-11-12", 0.054], ["2022-11-12", 0.054], ["2022-11-13", 0.054], ["2022-11-13", 0.051], ["2022-11-25", 0.051], ["2022-11-28", 0.049], ["2022-12-05", 0.049], ["2022-12-05", 0.047], ["2022-12-07", 0.044], ["2022-12-07", 0.042], ["2022-12-08", 0.04], ["2022-12-08", 0.039], ["2022-12-10", 0.038], ["2022-12-11", 0.038], ["2022-12-12", 0.036], ["2022-12-16", 0.035], ["2022-12-20", 0.036], ["2022-12-20", 0.035], ["2022-12-20", 0.035], ["2022-12-22", 0.034], ["2022-12-27", 0.032], ["2022-12-28", 0.032], ["2023-01-01", 0.031], ["2023-01-03", 0.03], ["2023-01-06", 0.029], ["2023-01-08", 0.03], ["2023-01-08", 0.029], ["2023-01-08", 0.029]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12385/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Detroit Lions win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-09 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.06], ["2022-09-04", 0.055], ["2022-09-04", 0.055], ["2022-09-04", 0.056], ["2022-09-04", 0.061], ["2022-09-04", 0.061], ["2022-09-04", 0.074], ["2022-09-05", 0.074], ["2022-09-05", 0.075], ["2022-09-05", 0.079], ["2022-09-05", 0.079], ["2022-09-07", 0.092], ["2022-09-11", 0.092], ["2022-09-12", 0.093], ["2022-09-17", 0.093], ["2022-09-24", 0.088], ["2022-09-26", 0.085], ["2022-10-04", 0.084], ["2022-10-07", 0.086], ["2022-10-14", 0.085], ["2022-10-20", 0.082], ["2022-10-20", 0.082], ["2022-10-22", 0.081], ["2022-10-25", 0.081], ["2022-10-26", 0.117], ["2022-10-29", 0.116], ["2022-11-01", 0.116], ["2022-11-12", 0.116], ["2022-11-12", 0.108], ["2022-11-12", 0.106], ["2022-11-12", 0.106], ["2022-11-13", 0.106], ["2022-11-13", 0.103], ["2022-11-13", 0.097], ["2022-11-18", 0.093], ["2022-11-25", 0.093], ["2022-11-28", 0.093], ["2022-12-05", 0.088], ["2022-12-05", 0.085], ["2022-12-07", 0.085], ["2022-12-07", 0.081], ["2022-12-08", 0.077], ["2022-12-08", 0.077], ["2022-12-08", 0.074], ["2022-12-10", 0.074], ["2022-12-10", 0.073], ["2022-12-11", 0.068], ["2022-12-12", 0.066], ["2022-12-16", 0.064], ["2022-12-20", 0.062], ["2022-12-20", 0.061], ["2022-12-22", 0.061], ["2022-12-23", 0.057], ["2022-12-25", 0.057], ["2022-12-26", 0.056], ["2022-12-27", 0.056], ["2022-12-28", 0.055], ["2023-01-01", 0.055], ["2023-01-02", 0.053], ["2023-01-04", 0.053], ["2023-01-06", 0.052], ["2023-01-07", 0.052], ["2023-01-08", 0.052], ["2023-01-08", 0.051], ["2023-01-08", 0.05], ["2023-01-09", 0.048], ["2023-01-09", 0.047]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12386/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Green Bay Packers win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-16 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.035], ["2022-09-04", 0.035], ["2022-09-04", 0.031], ["2022-09-04", 0.028], ["2022-09-05", 0.026], ["2022-09-05", 0.024], ["2022-09-05", 0.024], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-07", 0.022], ["2022-09-11", 0.023], ["2022-09-17", 0.025], ["2022-10-07", 0.025], ["2022-10-14", 0.025], ["2022-10-20", 0.031], ["2022-10-22", 0.031], ["2022-10-23", 0.031], ["2022-10-25", 0.071], ["2022-10-25", 0.071], ["2022-10-26", 0.073], ["2022-10-27", 0.072], ["2022-10-29", 0.072], ["2022-11-01", 0.074], ["2022-11-01", 0.074], ["2022-11-04", 0.074], ["2022-11-06", 0.074], ["2022-11-07", 0.075], ["2022-11-09", 0.075], ["2022-11-11", 0.074], ["2022-11-11", 0.076], ["2022-11-12", 0.076], ["2022-11-12", 0.075], ["2022-11-13", 0.075], ["2022-11-16", 0.076], ["2022-11-22", 0.077], ["2022-11-25", 0.077], ["2022-11-25", 0.078], ["2022-11-25", 0.078], ["2022-12-05", 0.077], ["2022-12-05", 0.077], ["2022-12-07", 0.077], ["2022-12-07", 0.076], ["2022-12-08", 0.076], ["2022-12-10", 0.078], ["2022-12-10", 0.078], ["2022-12-11", 0.078], ["2022-12-12", 0.08], ["2022-12-13", 0.089], ["2022-12-16", 0.089], ["2022-12-20", 0.088], ["2022-12-20", 0.085], ["2022-12-22", 0.085], ["2022-12-22", 0.084], ["2022-12-22", 0.084], ["2022-12-25", 0.084], ["2022-12-26", 0.083], ["2022-12-28", 0.082], ["2022-12-28", 0.082], ["2023-01-02", 0.081], ["2023-01-02", 0.081], ["2023-01-02", 0.08], ["2023-01-03", 0.08], ["2023-01-04", 0.078], ["2023-01-06", 0.077], ["2023-01-06", 0.078], ["2023-01-07", 0.078], ["2023-01-08", 0.078], ["2023-01-08", 0.08], ["2023-01-08", 0.078], ["2023-01-09", 0.077], ["2023-01-09", 0.077], ["2023-01-09", 0.076], ["2023-01-09", 0.08], ["2023-01-15", 0.08], ["2023-01-15", 0.08]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12387/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.032], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-05", 0.02], ["2022-09-05", 0.023], ["2022-09-06", 0.023], ["2022-09-07", 0.023], ["2022-09-11", 0.022], ["2022-09-15", 0.021], ["2022-09-17", 0.02], ["2022-10-07", 0.02], ["2022-10-22", 0.018], ["2022-10-25", 0.018], ["2022-10-26", 0.06], ["2022-11-01", 0.057], ["2022-11-12", 0.057], ["2022-11-12", 0.054], ["2022-11-13", 0.051], ["2022-11-25", 0.051], ["2022-12-05", 0.049], ["2022-12-05", 0.047], ["2022-12-07", 0.045], ["2022-12-07", 0.045], ["2022-12-08", 0.043], ["2022-12-10", 0.04], ["2022-12-12", 0.04], ["2022-12-16", 0.038], ["2022-12-19", 0.038], ["2022-12-20", 0.036], ["2022-12-20", 0.036], ["2022-12-22", 0.034]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12388/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.03], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-05", 0.023], ["2022-09-05", 0.021], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-06", 0.022], ["2022-09-07", 0.022], ["2022-09-11", 0.021], ["2022-09-12", 0.021], ["2022-09-17", 0.019], ["2022-10-07", 0.018], ["2022-10-25", 0.067], ["2022-10-26", 0.067], ["2022-11-01", 0.063], ["2022-11-12", 0.063], ["2022-11-12", 0.06], ["2022-11-13", 0.057], ["2022-11-18", 0.057], ["2022-11-25", 0.054], ["2022-11-28", 0.053], ["2022-12-05", 0.051], ["2022-12-05", 0.051], ["2022-12-07", 0.049], ["2022-12-07", 0.045], ["2022-12-08", 0.044], ["2022-12-10", 0.044], ["2022-12-12", 0.042], ["2022-12-16", 0.04], ["2022-12-20", 0.039], ["2022-12-20", 0.038], ["2022-12-22", 0.036], ["2022-12-28", 0.036]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12389/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Carolina Panthers win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.035], ["2022-09-04", 0.035], ["2022-09-04", 0.035], ["2022-09-04", 0.031], ["2022-09-04", 0.034], ["2022-09-04", 0.038], ["2022-09-05", 0.035], ["2022-09-05", 0.036], ["2022-09-05", 0.042], ["2022-09-07", 0.042], ["2022-09-11", 0.04], ["2022-09-12", 0.039], ["2022-09-17", 0.039], ["2022-09-24", 0.038], ["2022-10-07", 0.035], ["2022-10-25", 0.083], ["2022-10-26", 0.078], ["2022-11-01", 0.078], ["2022-11-12", 0.074], ["2022-11-12", 0.073], ["2022-11-12", 0.066], ["2022-11-13", 0.066], ["2022-11-13", 0.066], ["2022-11-25", 0.069], ["2022-11-28", 0.068], ["2022-12-05", 0.064], ["2022-12-05", 0.064], ["2022-12-06", 0.061], ["2022-12-06", 0.061], ["2022-12-07", 0.057], ["2022-12-07", 0.057], ["2022-12-08", 0.053], ["2022-12-08", 0.051], ["2022-12-10", 0.051], ["2022-12-10", 0.051], ["2022-12-11", 0.049], ["2022-12-12", 0.048], ["2022-12-16", 0.045], ["2022-12-20", 0.044], ["2022-12-20", 0.043], ["2022-12-22", 0.043], ["2022-12-23", 0.041], ["2022-12-28", 0.041], ["2023-01-01", 0.039]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12390/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will New Orleans Saints win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-17 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.09], ["2022-09-03", 0.09], ["2022-09-04", 0.08], ["2022-09-04", 0.07], ["2022-09-04", 0.07], ["2022-09-04", 0.072], ["2022-09-04", 0.077], ["2022-09-05", 0.079], ["2022-09-05", 0.081], ["2022-09-05", 0.081], ["2022-09-05", 0.086], ["2022-09-06", 0.089], ["2022-09-07", 0.089], ["2022-09-11", 0.089], ["2022-09-17", 0.09], ["2022-09-24", 0.099], ["2022-10-04", 0.099], ["2022-10-07", 0.094], ["2022-10-16", 0.095], ["2022-10-16", 0.095], ["2022-10-22", 0.093], ["2022-10-24", 0.093], ["2022-10-25", 0.136], ["2022-10-26", 0.128], ["2022-10-28", 0.127], ["2022-10-29", 0.127], ["2022-10-30", 0.121], ["2022-10-31", 0.121], ["2022-11-01", 0.121], ["2022-11-07", 0.121], ["2022-11-09", 0.123], ["2022-11-10", 0.123], ["2022-11-11", 0.124], ["2022-11-11", 0.12], ["2022-11-12", 0.12], ["2022-11-12", 0.112], ["2022-11-12", 0.112], ["2022-11-12", 0.112], ["2022-11-13", 0.11], ["2022-11-14", 0.109], ["2022-11-16", 0.109], ["2022-11-22", 0.11], ["2022-11-23", 0.109], ["2022-11-25", 0.109], ["2022-11-30", 0.109], ["2022-12-05", 0.105], ["2022-12-05", 0.105], ["2022-12-06", 0.103], ["2022-12-07", 0.104], ["2022-12-07", 0.098], ["2022-12-07", 0.097], ["2022-12-10", 0.094], ["2022-12-11", 0.094], ["2022-12-12", 0.089], ["2022-12-12", 0.088], ["2022-12-13", 0.087], ["2022-12-13", 0.086], ["2022-12-16", 0.084], ["2022-12-16", 0.084], ["2022-12-18", 0.083], ["2022-12-19", 0.081], ["2022-12-19", 0.081], ["2022-12-19", 0.08], ["2022-12-20", 0.08], ["2022-12-20", 0.075], ["2022-12-22", 0.073], ["2022-12-22", 0.073], ["2022-12-23", 0.075], ["2022-12-26", 0.075], ["2022-12-28", 0.072], ["2023-01-01", 0.07], ["2023-01-02", 0.071], ["2023-01-06", 0.069], ["2023-01-07", 0.069], ["2023-01-08", 0.068], ["2023-01-08", 0.068], ["2023-01-08", 0.068], ["2023-01-08", 0.066], ["2023-01-09", 0.066], ["2023-01-09", 0.066], ["2023-01-09", 0.065], ["2023-01-15", 0.071], ["2023-01-15", 0.072], ["2023-01-15", 0.072], ["2023-01-15", 0.071], ["2023-01-16", 0.072], ["2023-01-16", 0.072], ["2023-01-16", 0.071], ["2023-01-16", 0.07], ["2023-01-17", 0.077], ["2023-01-17", 0.07], ["2023-01-17", 0.07]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12391/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-19 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.02], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.042], ["2022-09-04", 0.038], ["2022-09-04", 0.038], ["2022-09-04", 0.042], ["2022-09-05", 0.039], ["2022-09-05", 0.039], ["2022-09-05", 0.042], ["2022-09-07", 0.042], ["2022-09-11", 0.04], ["2022-09-17", 0.041], ["2022-10-07", 0.041], ["2022-10-14", 0.041], ["2022-10-22", 0.039], ["2022-10-25", 0.039], ["2022-10-26", 0.075], ["2022-11-01", 0.075], ["2022-11-12", 0.075], ["2022-11-12", 0.071], ["2022-11-13", 0.069], ["2022-11-25", 0.069], ["2022-11-28", 0.067], ["2022-12-05", 0.064], ["2022-12-05", 0.064], ["2022-12-05", 0.062], ["2022-12-06", 0.059], ["2022-12-07", 0.057], ["2022-12-07", 0.055], ["2022-12-08", 0.054], ["2022-12-08", 0.052], ["2022-12-09", 0.051], ["2022-12-10", 0.051], ["2022-12-11", 0.049], ["2022-12-12", 0.047], ["2022-12-16", 0.047]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12392/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-20 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.07], ["2022-09-04", 0.06], ["2022-09-04", 0.06], ["2022-09-04", 0.06], ["2022-09-04", 0.064], ["2022-09-04", 0.067], ["2022-09-05", 0.067], ["2022-09-05", 0.068], ["2022-09-05", 0.076], ["2022-09-06", 0.077], ["2022-09-07", 0.076], ["2022-09-11", 0.076], ["2022-09-17", 0.075], ["2022-09-24", 0.073], ["2022-10-04", 0.073], ["2022-10-07", 0.072], ["2022-10-14", 0.072], ["2022-10-16", 0.071], ["2022-10-19", 0.071], ["2022-10-22", 0.068], ["2022-10-25", 0.068], ["2022-10-26", 0.107], ["2022-10-29", 0.108], ["2022-10-31", 0.108], ["2022-11-01", 0.107], ["2022-11-05", 0.101], ["2022-11-07", 0.101], ["2022-11-08", 0.101], ["2022-11-12", 0.1], ["2022-11-12", 0.092], ["2022-11-12", 0.092], ["2022-11-13", 0.092], ["2022-11-14", 0.091], ["2022-11-25", 0.09], ["2022-11-28", 0.09], ["2022-12-05", 0.087], ["2022-12-05", 0.087], ["2022-12-06", 0.082], ["2022-12-07", 0.079], ["2022-12-07", 0.076], ["2022-12-08", 0.075], ["2022-12-08", 0.075], ["2022-12-08", 0.074], ["2022-12-10", 0.07], ["2022-12-10", 0.067], ["2022-12-11", 0.065], ["2022-12-12", 0.063], ["2022-12-16", 0.061], ["2022-12-16", 0.06], ["2022-12-18", 0.06], ["2022-12-20", 0.058]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12393/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-30 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.04], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.05], ["2022-09-04", 0.048], ["2022-09-04", 0.048], ["2022-09-05", 0.051], ["2022-09-05", 0.051], ["2022-09-05", 0.051], ["2022-09-07", 0.054], ["2022-09-11", 0.055], ["2022-09-17", 0.055], ["2022-09-18", 0.057], ["2022-10-07", 0.057], ["2022-10-14", 0.057], ["2022-10-16", 0.06], ["2022-10-25", 0.099], ["2022-10-26", 0.099], ["2022-10-29", 0.093], ["2022-10-31", 0.09], ["2022-11-01", 0.091], ["2022-11-01", 0.091], ["2022-11-07", 0.092], ["2022-11-08", 0.092], ["2022-11-09", 0.09], ["2022-11-11", 0.093], ["2022-11-11", 0.094], ["2022-11-12", 0.091], ["2022-11-12", 0.091], ["2022-11-13", 0.089], ["2022-11-16", 0.089], ["2022-11-22", 0.093], ["2022-11-23", 0.094], ["2022-11-25", 0.099], ["2022-11-30", 0.102], ["2022-12-05", 0.099], ["2022-12-05", 0.095], ["2022-12-06", 0.095], ["2022-12-06", 0.092], ["2022-12-07", 0.088], ["2022-12-07", 0.088], ["2022-12-08", 0.084], ["2022-12-10", 0.083], ["2022-12-10", 0.083], ["2022-12-11", 0.082], ["2022-12-12", 0.093], ["2022-12-13", 0.094], ["2022-12-13", 0.095], ["2022-12-16", 0.095], ["2022-12-19", 0.094], ["2022-12-20", 0.095], ["2022-12-20", 0.095], ["2022-12-20", 0.089], ["2022-12-22", 0.09], ["2022-12-23", 0.09], ["2022-12-27", 0.089], ["2022-12-28", 0.089], ["2022-12-29", 0.089], ["2023-01-02", 0.087], ["2023-01-06", 0.091], ["2023-01-07", 0.092], ["2023-01-08", 0.091], ["2023-01-08", 0.092], ["2023-01-08", 0.091], ["2023-01-08", 0.091], ["2023-01-09", 0.09], ["2023-01-09", 0.092], ["2023-01-09", 0.101], ["2023-01-10", 0.102], ["2023-01-10", 0.102], ["2023-01-15", 0.104], ["2023-01-15", 0.107], ["2023-01-15", 0.107], ["2023-01-16", 0.113], ["2023-01-16", 0.116], ["2023-01-16", 0.12], ["2023-01-16", 0.12], ["2023-01-17", 0.12], ["2023-01-17", 0.121], ["2023-01-17", 0.123], ["2023-01-18", 0.123], ["2023-01-18", 0.126], ["2023-01-18", 0.129], ["2023-01-19", 0.131], ["2023-01-22", 0.134], ["2023-01-22", 0.135], ["2023-01-22", 0.137], ["2023-01-22", 0.136], ["2023-01-23", 0.152], ["2023-01-23", 0.158], ["2023-01-23", 0.159], ["2023-01-23", 0.168], ["2023-01-25", 0.168], ["2023-01-26", 0.166], ["2023-01-26", 0.166], ["2023-01-27", 0.18], ["2023-01-28", 0.156], ["2023-01-28", 0.156], ["2023-01-28", 0.177], ["2023-01-29", 0.175], ["2023-01-29", 0.166], ["2023-01-29", 0.158]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12394/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-14 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-03", 0.01], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-04", 0.026], ["2022-09-04", 0.023], ["2022-09-04", 0.021], ["2022-09-05", 0.019], ["2022-09-05", 0.018], ["2022-09-05", 0.018], ["2022-09-06", 0.018], ["2022-09-07", 0.018], ["2022-09-11", 0.016], ["2022-09-17", 0.016], ["2022-10-07", 0.016], ["2022-10-25", 0.064], ["2022-10-26", 0.064], ["2022-11-01", 0.061], ["2022-11-09", 0.061], ["2022-11-11", 0.063], ["2022-11-12", 0.06], ["2022-11-12", 0.06], ["2022-11-13", 0.06], ["2022-11-14", 0.058], ["2022-11-16", 0.059], ["2022-11-22", 0.058], ["2022-11-25", 0.058], ["2022-12-05", 0.056], ["2022-12-05", 0.053], ["2022-12-07", 0.051], ["2022-12-07", 0.049], ["2022-12-08", 0.049], ["2022-12-08", 0.047], ["2022-12-08", 0.046], ["2022-12-10", 0.045], ["2022-12-10", 0.044], ["2022-12-12", 0.044], ["2022-12-13", 0.042], ["2022-12-16", 0.042], ["2022-12-20", 0.041], ["2022-12-20", 0.039], ["2022-12-22", 0.038], ["2022-12-31", 0.037], ["2023-01-01", 0.036], ["2023-01-03", 0.035], ["2023-01-06", 0.035], ["2023-01-07", 0.034], ["2023-01-08", 0.035], ["2023-01-08", 0.035], ["2023-01-08", 0.034], ["2023-01-09", 0.043]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12395/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs?
The Super Bowl is the ultimate championship game in the NFL league of American Football. Superbowl broadcasts are typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States, with 92 million average viewers of the 2021 Super Bowl.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. The champions of the 2 conferences compete in the Super Bowl. The game is scheduled for February 12, 2023. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team below which wins the 57th NFL Super Bowl, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the 57th Super Bowl is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on game day will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-13 | Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-15 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-05", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.375], ["2022-09-06", 0.375], ["2022-09-06", 0.418], ["2022-09-06", 0.443], ["2022-09-07", 0.471], ["2022-09-07", 0.484], ["2022-09-07", 0.484], ["2022-09-07", 0.488], ["2022-09-08", 0.515], ["2022-09-12", 0.528], ["2022-09-13", 0.542], ["2022-09-13", 0.542], ["2022-09-15", 0.576], ["2022-09-24", 0.576], ["2022-09-26", 0.569], ["2022-10-04", 0.594], ["2022-10-04", 0.596], ["2022-10-05", 0.599], ["2022-10-07", 0.602], ["2022-10-14", 0.617], ["2022-10-16", 0.619], ["2022-10-16", 0.619], ["2022-10-19", 0.622], ["2022-10-25", 0.63], ["2022-10-28", 0.631], ["2022-10-29", 0.635], ["2022-10-30", 0.635], ["2022-10-31", 0.635], ["2022-11-01", 0.635], ["2022-11-02", 0.627], ["2022-11-03", 0.629], ["2022-11-03", 0.632], ["2022-11-05", 0.632], ["2022-11-06", 0.64], ["2022-11-06", 0.669], ["2022-11-07", 0.674], ["2022-11-11", 0.651], ["2022-11-12", 0.651], ["2022-11-12", 0.649], ["2022-11-13", 0.649], ["2022-11-14", 0.635], ["2022-11-14", 0.635], ["2022-11-22", 0.624], ["2022-11-23", 0.668], ["2022-11-23", 0.653], ["2022-11-24", 0.665], ["2022-11-25", 0.665], ["2022-11-25", 0.672], ["2022-11-25", 0.668], ["2022-11-30", 0.668], ["2022-11-30", 0.673], ["2022-11-30", 0.673], ["2022-11-30", 0.671], ["2022-12-05", 0.671], ["2022-12-06", 0.672], ["2022-12-07", 0.672], ["2022-12-07", 0.669], ["2022-12-08", 0.669], ["2022-12-08", 0.682], ["2022-12-09", 0.679], ["2022-12-10", 0.681], ["2022-12-10", 0.691], ["2022-12-10", 0.697], ["2022-12-11", 0.704], ["2022-12-11", 0.704], ["2022-12-12", 0.699], ["2022-12-12", 0.701], ["2022-12-13", 0.701], ["2022-12-18", 0.704], ["2022-12-19", 0.704], ["2022-12-19", 0.708], ["2022-12-20", 0.711], ["2022-12-20", 0.711], ["2022-12-26", 0.708], ["2022-12-27", 0.708], ["2022-12-27", 0.706], ["2022-12-28", 0.706], ["2023-01-01", 0.726], ["2023-01-01", 0.719], ["2023-01-02", 0.719], ["2023-01-02", 0.718], ["2023-01-04", 0.72], ["2023-01-04", 0.716], ["2023-01-05", 0.716], ["2023-01-08", 0.713], ["2023-01-08", 0.713], ["2023-01-08", 0.713], ["2023-01-09", 0.712], ["2023-01-09", 0.71], ["2023-01-09", 0.722], ["2023-01-10", 0.722], ["2023-01-10", 0.725], ["2023-01-10", 0.731], ["2023-01-10", 0.732], ["2023-01-11", 0.733], ["2023-01-11", 0.735], ["2023-01-14", 0.739], ["2023-01-14", 0.74], ["2023-01-15", 0.74], ["2023-01-15", 0.748]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12399/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will Buffalo Bills advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-15 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-05", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.145], ["2022-09-06", 0.145], ["2022-09-06", 0.119], ["2022-09-06", 0.131], ["2022-09-06", 0.107], ["2022-09-07", 0.107], ["2022-09-07", 0.127], ["2022-09-07", 0.118], ["2022-09-08", 0.118], ["2022-09-19", 0.107], ["2022-09-20", 0.103], ["2022-09-26", 0.139], ["2022-10-04", 0.11], ["2022-10-07", 0.11], ["2022-10-14", 0.111], ["2022-10-16", 0.091], ["2022-10-16", 0.089], ["2022-10-16", 0.088], ["2022-10-17", 0.085], ["2022-10-19", 0.085], ["2022-10-25", 0.083], ["2022-10-25", 0.143], ["2022-10-26", 0.144], ["2022-10-29", 0.14], ["2022-11-01", 0.14], ["2022-11-03", 0.142], ["2022-11-05", 0.141], ["2022-11-06", 0.141], ["2022-11-07", 0.172], ["2022-11-07", 0.179], ["2022-11-08", 0.189], ["2022-11-11", 0.189], ["2022-11-12", 0.194], ["2022-11-13", 0.194], ["2022-11-14", 0.196], ["2022-11-14", 0.212], ["2022-11-22", 0.226], ["2022-11-23", 0.251], ["2022-11-23", 0.251], ["2022-11-24", 0.263], ["2022-11-24", 0.282], ["2022-11-25", 0.288], ["2022-11-25", 0.288], ["2022-11-30", 0.29], ["2022-11-30", 0.292], ["2022-12-01", 0.295], ["2022-12-07", 0.296], ["2022-12-08", 0.298], ["2022-12-08", 0.298], ["2022-12-08", 0.29], ["2022-12-08", 0.312], ["2022-12-08", 0.312], ["2022-12-08", 0.302], ["2022-12-10", 0.306], ["2022-12-10", 0.307], ["2022-12-11", 0.307], ["2022-12-12", 0.322], ["2022-12-12", 0.317], ["2022-12-13", 0.316], ["2022-12-20", 0.294], ["2022-12-20", 0.294], ["2022-12-20", 0.274], ["2022-12-20", 0.269], ["2022-12-21", 0.267], ["2022-12-22", 0.267], ["2022-12-26", 0.26], ["2022-12-27", 0.26], ["2023-01-01", 0.255], ["2023-01-02", 0.255], ["2023-01-02", 0.247], ["2023-01-03", 0.243], ["2023-01-03", 0.24], ["2023-01-04", 0.24], ["2023-01-04", 0.272], ["2023-01-04", 0.272], ["2023-01-04", 0.234], ["2023-01-05", 0.226], ["2023-01-06", 0.224], ["2023-01-08", 0.219], ["2023-01-08", 0.219], ["2023-01-08", 0.227], ["2023-01-08", 0.229], ["2023-01-09", 0.229], ["2023-01-09", 0.238], ["2023-01-09", 0.241], ["2023-01-09", 0.239], ["2023-01-10", 0.233], ["2023-01-11", 0.233], ["2023-01-11", 0.229], ["2023-01-11", 0.229], ["2023-01-12", 0.227], ["2023-01-14", 0.223], ["2023-01-15", 0.222]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12400/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will Miami Dolphins advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-08 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-06", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.218], ["2022-09-06", 0.23], ["2022-09-06", 0.23], ["2022-09-06", 0.194], ["2022-09-07", 0.194], ["2022-09-07", 0.198], ["2022-09-07", 0.188], ["2022-09-07", 0.17], ["2022-09-08", 0.162], ["2022-09-19", 0.162], ["2022-09-20", 0.158], ["2022-09-26", 0.134], ["2022-09-27", 0.128], ["2022-09-28", 0.122], ["2022-10-04", 0.122], ["2022-10-07", 0.122], ["2022-10-14", 0.122], ["2022-10-19", 0.122], ["2022-10-25", 0.208], ["2022-10-25", 0.214], ["2022-10-26", 0.216], ["2022-10-29", 0.212], ["2022-10-30", 0.212], ["2022-11-01", 0.206], ["2022-11-03", 0.206], ["2022-11-03", 0.208], ["2022-11-03", 0.209], ["2022-11-06", 0.203], ["2022-11-07", 0.205], ["2022-11-07", 0.208], ["2022-11-11", 0.209], ["2022-11-12", 0.209], ["2022-11-13", 0.209], ["2022-11-13", 0.21], ["2022-11-14", 0.214], ["2022-11-22", 0.214], ["2022-11-23", 0.225], ["2022-11-23", 0.225], ["2022-11-23", 0.225], ["2022-11-23", 0.225], ["2022-11-24", 0.23], ["2022-11-25", 0.23], ["2022-11-25", 0.23], ["2022-11-25", 0.238], ["2022-11-30", 0.229], ["2022-11-30", 0.229], ["2022-12-01", 0.231], ["2022-12-07", 0.227], ["2022-12-08", 0.219], ["2022-12-08", 0.22], ["2022-12-09", 0.221], ["2022-12-10", 0.207], ["2022-12-10", 0.203], ["2022-12-10", 0.198], ["2022-12-11", 0.2], ["2022-12-12", 0.188], ["2022-12-12", 0.188], ["2022-12-12", 0.181], ["2022-12-20", 0.175], ["2022-12-20", 0.164], ["2022-12-20", 0.16], ["2022-12-21", 0.16], ["2022-12-22", 0.151], ["2022-12-26", 0.146], ["2022-12-27", 0.14], ["2022-12-27", 0.14], ["2022-12-28", 0.138], ["2023-01-01", 0.133], ["2023-01-01", 0.132], ["2023-01-01", 0.132], ["2023-01-02", 0.124], ["2023-01-02", 0.122], ["2023-01-03", 0.122], ["2023-01-04", 0.121], ["2023-01-04", 0.12], ["2023-01-06", 0.12], ["2023-01-08", 0.119]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12401/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will New England Patriots advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-06", 0.135], ["2022-09-06", 0.135], ["2022-09-06", 0.135], ["2022-09-06", 0.081], ["2022-09-06", 0.081], ["2022-09-06", 0.077], ["2022-09-07", 0.077], ["2022-09-07", 0.053], ["2022-09-07", 0.027], ["2022-09-08", 0.024], ["2022-09-12", 0.024], ["2022-09-15", 0.024], ["2022-09-26", 0.019], ["2022-10-07", 0.019], ["2022-10-14", 0.021], ["2022-10-25", 0.079], ["2022-10-29", 0.083], ["2022-11-01", 0.083], ["2022-11-03", 0.083], ["2022-11-06", 0.079], ["2022-11-07", 0.089], ["2022-11-07", 0.095], ["2022-11-11", 0.095], ["2022-11-12", 0.102], ["2022-11-13", 0.104], ["2022-11-14", 0.104], ["2022-11-14", 0.107], ["2022-11-22", 0.098], ["2022-11-23", 0.105], ["2022-11-23", 0.105], ["2022-11-25", 0.098], ["2022-11-30", 0.102], ["2022-12-07", 0.098], ["2022-12-08", 0.098], ["2022-12-08", 0.1], ["2022-12-08", 0.108], ["2022-12-08", 0.108], ["2022-12-10", 0.094], ["2022-12-10", 0.091], ["2022-12-11", 0.091], ["2022-12-12", 0.094], ["2022-12-12", 0.09], ["2022-12-13", 0.087], ["2022-12-18", 0.087], ["2022-12-20", 0.082], ["2022-12-20", 0.082], ["2022-12-26", 0.075], ["2022-12-26", 0.075], ["2022-12-27", 0.075], ["2023-01-01", 0.069]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12402/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will New York Jets advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-16 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-05", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.29], ["2022-09-06", 0.303], ["2022-09-06", 0.32], ["2022-09-06", 0.32], ["2022-09-07", 0.258], ["2022-09-07", 0.28], ["2022-09-07", 0.285], ["2022-09-07", 0.285], ["2022-09-08", 0.298], ["2022-09-19", 0.298], ["2022-09-20", 0.293], ["2022-09-24", 0.291], ["2022-09-26", 0.308], ["2022-09-27", 0.32], ["2022-10-04", 0.324], ["2022-10-07", 0.317], ["2022-10-14", 0.338], ["2022-10-21", 0.338], ["2022-10-25", 0.339], ["2022-10-25", 0.398], ["2022-10-25", 0.401], ["2022-10-26", 0.407], ["2022-10-26", 0.407], ["2022-10-29", 0.416], ["2022-10-30", 0.42], ["2022-10-30", 0.42], ["2022-11-01", 0.423], ["2022-11-03", 0.439], ["2022-11-03", 0.439], ["2022-11-03", 0.45], ["2022-11-03", 0.466], ["2022-11-05", 0.466], ["2022-11-06", 0.48], ["2022-11-06", 0.495], ["2022-11-06", 0.495], ["2022-11-07", 0.506], ["2022-11-07", 0.506], ["2022-11-11", 0.513], ["2022-11-12", 0.519], ["2022-11-12", 0.519], ["2022-11-13", 0.519], ["2022-11-14", 0.539], ["2022-11-14", 0.542], ["2022-11-22", 0.542], ["2022-11-22", 0.555], ["2022-11-23", 0.555], ["2022-11-23", 0.62], ["2022-11-24", 0.622], ["2022-11-25", 0.622], ["2022-11-30", 0.614], ["2022-11-30", 0.614], ["2022-12-07", 0.625], ["2022-12-08", 0.621], ["2022-12-08", 0.621], ["2022-12-08", 0.649], ["2022-12-10", 0.649], ["2022-12-10", 0.641], ["2022-12-10", 0.638], ["2022-12-11", 0.638], ["2022-12-12", 0.648], ["2022-12-12", 0.646], ["2022-12-12", 0.643], ["2022-12-13", 0.647], ["2022-12-13", 0.641], ["2022-12-18", 0.641], ["2022-12-19", 0.638], ["2022-12-19", 0.637], ["2022-12-20", 0.632], ["2022-12-20", 0.632], ["2022-12-26", 0.649], ["2022-12-27", 0.647], ["2022-12-27", 0.644], ["2022-12-28", 0.63], ["2022-12-28", 0.629], ["2023-01-02", 0.625], ["2023-01-02", 0.625], ["2023-01-02", 0.618], ["2023-01-03", 0.615], ["2023-01-04", 0.615], ["2023-01-04", 0.613], ["2023-01-05", 0.607], ["2023-01-06", 0.605], ["2023-01-08", 0.6], ["2023-01-08", 0.598], ["2023-01-08", 0.606], ["2023-01-09", 0.606], ["2023-01-09", 0.6], ["2023-01-09", 0.602], ["2023-01-09", 0.602], ["2023-01-09", 0.6], ["2023-01-10", 0.591], ["2023-01-10", 0.574], ["2023-01-11", 0.574], ["2023-01-11", 0.566], ["2023-01-11", 0.553], ["2023-01-11", 0.55], ["2023-01-12", 0.532], ["2023-01-15", 0.532], ["2023-01-16", 0.529]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12403/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will Baltimore Ravens advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-16 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-05", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.29], ["2022-09-06", 0.303], ["2022-09-06", 0.303], ["2022-09-06", 0.31], ["2022-09-06", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.258], ["2022-09-06", 0.258], ["2022-09-07", 0.253], ["2022-09-07", 0.267], ["2022-09-07", 0.26], ["2022-09-19", 0.256], ["2022-09-20", 0.256], ["2022-09-26", 0.252], ["2022-09-27", 0.22], ["2022-09-28", 0.215], ["2022-10-04", 0.215], ["2022-10-07", 0.236], ["2022-10-14", 0.222], ["2022-10-22", 0.224], ["2022-10-25", 0.265], ["2022-10-25", 0.268], ["2022-10-29", 0.283], ["2022-10-30", 0.285], ["2022-11-01", 0.285], ["2022-11-03", 0.285], ["2022-11-05", 0.263], ["2022-11-06", 0.254], ["2022-11-06", 0.254], ["2022-11-07", 0.252], ["2022-11-08", 0.252], ["2022-11-11", 0.252], ["2022-11-12", 0.255], ["2022-11-14", 0.255], ["2022-11-15", 0.249], ["2022-11-22", 0.254], ["2022-11-23", 0.27], ["2022-11-23", 0.254], ["2022-11-24", 0.268], ["2022-11-25", 0.268], ["2022-11-25", 0.268], ["2022-11-30", 0.279], ["2022-11-30", 0.28], ["2022-12-07", 0.277], ["2022-12-08", 0.277], ["2022-12-08", 0.278], ["2022-12-08", 0.281], ["2022-12-08", 0.275], ["2022-12-10", 0.299], ["2022-12-10", 0.308], ["2022-12-10", 0.313], ["2022-12-11", 0.313], ["2022-12-12", 0.324], ["2022-12-12", 0.33], ["2022-12-12", 0.33], ["2022-12-13", 0.335], ["2022-12-13", 0.339], ["2022-12-13", 0.347], ["2022-12-18", 0.347], ["2022-12-19", 0.354], ["2022-12-19", 0.368], ["2022-12-20", 0.368], ["2022-12-20", 0.36], ["2022-12-20", 0.358], ["2022-12-26", 0.358], ["2022-12-27", 0.359], ["2022-12-27", 0.371], ["2022-12-27", 0.37], ["2022-12-27", 0.367], ["2022-12-28", 0.367], ["2022-12-28", 0.369], ["2022-12-28", 0.39], ["2023-01-02", 0.395], ["2023-01-02", 0.394], ["2023-01-02", 0.396], ["2023-01-03", 0.396], ["2023-01-04", 0.4], ["2023-01-04", 0.4], ["2023-01-06", 0.408], ["2023-01-08", 0.408], ["2023-01-09", 0.407], ["2023-01-09", 0.409], ["2023-01-09", 0.411], ["2023-01-09", 0.414], ["2023-01-09", 0.416], ["2023-01-09", 0.417], ["2023-01-10", 0.419], ["2023-01-10", 0.427], ["2023-01-10", 0.444], ["2023-01-10", 0.445], ["2023-01-11", 0.445], ["2023-01-11", 0.462], ["2023-01-11", 0.465], ["2023-01-11", 0.467], ["2023-01-12", 0.473], ["2023-01-12", 0.476], ["2023-01-12", 0.477], ["2023-01-14", 0.478], ["2023-01-15", 0.478], ["2023-01-16", 0.478]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12404/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will Cincinnati Bengals advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-06", 0.14], ["2022-09-06", 0.14], ["2022-09-06", 0.103], ["2022-09-06", 0.103], ["2022-09-06", 0.128], ["2022-09-06", 0.104], ["2022-09-07", 0.11], ["2022-09-07", 0.102], ["2022-09-12", 0.102], ["2022-09-13", 0.107], ["2022-09-19", 0.098], ["2022-09-20", 0.094], ["2022-09-26", 0.104], ["2022-10-04", 0.099], ["2022-10-07", 0.099], ["2022-10-14", 0.1], ["2022-10-16", 0.092], ["2022-10-19", 0.092], ["2022-10-25", 0.095], ["2022-10-25", 0.158], ["2022-10-26", 0.16], ["2022-10-29", 0.149], ["2022-10-30", 0.172], ["2022-11-01", 0.172], ["2022-11-03", 0.172], ["2022-11-05", 0.179], ["2022-11-06", 0.179], ["2022-11-07", 0.168], ["2022-11-08", 0.168], ["2022-11-11", 0.165], ["2022-11-12", 0.165], ["2022-11-14", 0.161], ["2022-11-14", 0.16], ["2022-11-15", 0.16], ["2022-11-18", 0.158], ["2022-11-22", 0.15], ["2022-11-23", 0.144], ["2022-11-23", 0.141], ["2022-11-23", 0.141], ["2022-11-25", 0.142], ["2022-11-28", 0.142], ["2022-12-02", 0.139], ["2022-12-07", 0.139], ["2022-12-08", 0.135], ["2022-12-08", 0.134], ["2022-12-08", 0.129], ["2022-12-10", 0.115], ["2022-12-10", 0.115], ["2022-12-11", 0.116], ["2022-12-12", 0.106], ["2022-12-12", 0.1], ["2022-12-12", 0.1], ["2022-12-12", 0.098], ["2022-12-13", 0.095], ["2022-12-13", 0.095], ["2022-12-19", 0.092], ["2022-12-20", 0.088], ["2022-12-24", 0.068]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12405/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will Cleveland Browns advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 0 |
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Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will Pittsburgh Steelers advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2022-09-05", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.13], ["2022-09-06", 0.13], ["2022-09-06", 0.07], ["2022-09-06", 0.037], ["2022-09-06", 0.053], ["2022-09-06", 0.06], ["2022-09-06", 0.06], ["2022-09-07", 0.04], ["2022-09-07", 0.043], ["2022-09-07", 0.043], ["2022-09-07", 0.05], ["2022-09-08", 0.034], ["2022-09-12", 0.034], ["2022-09-25", 0.036], ["2022-09-26", 0.029], ["2022-09-27", 0.029], ["2022-09-27", 0.022], ["2022-10-04", 0.022], ["2022-10-05", 0.02], ["2022-10-07", 0.019], ["2022-10-14", 0.019], ["2022-10-25", 0.092], ["2022-10-26", 0.093], ["2022-10-30", 0.093], ["2022-10-30", 0.121], ["2022-10-31", 0.126], ["2022-11-01", 0.126], ["2022-11-03", 0.124], ["2022-11-06", 0.124], ["2022-11-06", 0.113], ["2022-11-07", 0.112], ["2022-11-12", 0.112], ["2022-11-13", 0.111], ["2022-11-25", 0.111], ["2022-12-05", 0.079], ["2022-12-06", 0.079], ["2022-12-07", 0.073]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12407/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl?
The National Football Leage of American Football consists of 32 teams. NFL Playoffs culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, which is typically the most watched TV broadcast of the year in the United States.
32 total NFL teams are divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC. From each conference, 7 top performing teams in the regular season earn positions in the playoffs. In the second round of the playoffs (the divisional round), 7 teams are reduced to 4. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams below which advance to divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If the divisional round of the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2023, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Ambiguous.
The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will Houston Texans advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-01 | 2020-05-28 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/u-s-china-trade-deal-is-fine-china-still-buying-u-s-goods-kudlow-idUSKCN257257", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-message-to-u-s-crossing-red-lines-could-put-trade-deal-at-risk-11593182991", "https://www.brinknews.com/covid-risks-reigniting-us-china-trade-war-economic-recovery-recession/", "https://fortune.com/2020/08/25/phase-1-us-china-trade-deal-progress-news-update/", "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/few-us-firms-see-trump-s-phase-1-china-trade-deal-as-worth-tariff-costs--survey-shows-13012118", "https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/us-china-phase-one-tracker-chinas-purchases-us-goods", "https://www.npr.org/2020/07/22/893767828/timeline-the-unraveling-of-u-s-china-relations?t=1595575420393", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agriculture/china-buys-us-soybeans-after-halt-to-us-purchases-ordered-sources-idUSKBN238264", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-analysis/a-faltering-u-s-china-trade-deal-is-now-the-nations-strongest-link-idUSKCN25A0DJ", "https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/07/trump-china-trade-deal-negotiations-how-president-misplayed-hand/", "https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/", "https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-poor-purchasing-performance-how-should-united-states-respond", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/01/21/soybean-farmers-fate-is-now-in-chinese-hands/#1ac1786f7210", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/trump-says-us-china-relationship-damaged-phase-2-trade-deal-not-a-priority.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/business/economy/trump-sanctions-south-china-sea.html", "https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-02/U.S.-China%20Trade%20Deal%20Issue%20Brief.pdf", "https://fortune.com/2020/07/31/us-china-trade-deal-corn/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/business/economy/us-china-trade-deal.html?searchResultPosition=1", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/01/china-ends-trump-trade-deal-phase-one/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-27/china-is-buying-american-but-not-enough-to-hit-trade-deal-target", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/us-china-reaffirm-commitment-to-phase-1-trade-deal-in-phone-call-idUSKBN25L023", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-pessimistic-on-phase-two-china-trade-deal-11594400326", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-soybeans-exports-china/usda-confirms-big-us-soybean-sales-to-china-as-buying-flurry-continues-idUSKBN23I2CJ", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1196813.shtml"] | binary | [["2020-06-04", 0.07], ["2020-06-04", 0.075], ["2020-06-04", 0.15], ["2020-06-05", 0.2375], ["2020-06-05", 0.31], ["2020-06-08", 0.2917], 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["2020-08-31", 0.1258], ["2020-08-31", 0.1255], ["2020-08-31", 0.1245], ["2020-08-31", 0.1237], ["2020-08-31", 0.1222], ["2020-08-31", 0.1222], ["2020-08-31", 0.1222], ["2020-08-31", 0.1221], ["2020-08-31", 0.1217], ["2020-08-31", 0.1219], ["2020-08-31", 0.121], ["2020-08-31", 0.1205], ["2020-08-31", 0.1196], ["2020-08-31", 0.1188], ["2020-08-31", 0.118], ["2020-08-31", 0.1172], ["2020-08-31", 0.1163], ["2020-09-01", 0.1155], ["2020-09-01", 0.1147], ["2020-09-01", 0.1157], ["2020-09-01", 0.1156], ["2020-09-01", 0.1155], ["2020-09-01", 0.1155]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/17 | <p><b>Context. </b>On January 15, 2020, the U.S. and China entered into a <a href="https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rVaHxDBUtdew/v0" target="_blank">trade agreement</a>, offering a reprieve to the escalating trade war. The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed China's purchases of U.S. goods required by the agreement, and President Trump has threatened to terminate the agreement if China does not uphold its end (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/15/trump-china-trade-deal-coronavirus" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). </p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on reports in popular media sources. An official announcement of withdrawal qualifies. </p><p>***</p><p>This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/three_worlds" target="_blank">Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today</a></li><li><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/isolated-china" target="_blank">An Isolated China in a Globalized World</a></li></ul><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><br></p> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-09-01 | Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2021-06-03 | 2020-05-30 | ["https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Kaufman_Testimony.pdf", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/chinas-military-incursions-around-taiwan-arent-a-sign-of-imminent-attack/", "https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/course/news.php?Sn=167", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6KC0PAvJZw", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation", "https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/taiwan-should-prepare-against-possible-chinese-invasion-white", "https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/Chapter%205%20-%20Taiwan.pdf", "https://globalvoices.org/2020/01/06/chinese-propaganda-slogan-unifying-taiwan-with-force-is-losing-its-threatening-edge/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-conducts-major-annual-military-exercise-amid-rising-china-tensions-n1234023", "https://chinapower.csis.org/can-china-invade-taiwan/", "https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/taiwanese-air-force-scrambles-jets-amid-plaaf-flyby/", "https://www.tokyoreview.net/2020/07/taiwan-is-where-japan-draws-the-line/", "https://nationalinterest.org/feature/inconvenient-truth-about-taiwan%E2%80%99s-place-world-169659", "https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202002100016", "https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20200925-is-mainland-china-gearing-up-for-an-invasion-of-taiwan", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3105953/chinese-military-beefs-coastal-forces-it-prepares-possible", "https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/the-chinese-military-speaks-to-itself-revealing-doubts/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/taiwan-says-threat-of-military-clash-with-china-is-on-the-rise/2020/07/22/6f6da4c8-cc0c-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html?hpid=hp_world1-8-12_taiwan-china-840am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFe-QnhCty4", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chinas-peoples-liberation-army-prepares-for-possible-military-invasion-of-taiwan/articleshow/78730018.cms", "https://hk.appledaily.com/us/20200529/UARMEE52FFEFRL4N5PG26XVNU4/", "http://cimsec.org/implications-of-hybrid-warfare-for-the-order-of-the-oceans/45078"] | binary | [["2020-06-03", 0.03], ["2020-06-05", 0.02], ["2020-06-05", 0.0167], ["2020-06-05", 0.0375], ["2020-06-08", 0.032], ["2020-06-08", 0.0283], ["2020-06-08", 0.0314], ["2020-06-09", 0.0288], ["2020-06-09", 0.03], ["2020-06-10", 0.032], ["2020-06-16", 0.0336], ["2020-06-18", 0.0333], ["2020-06-18", 0.0315], ["2020-06-19", 0.0614], ["2020-06-20", 0.0633], ["2020-06-21", 0.0606], ["2020-06-22", 0.0576], ["2020-06-22", 0.0556], ["2020-06-23", 0.0537], ["2020-06-23", 0.0535], ["2020-06-23", 0.053], ["2020-06-24", 0.0538], ["2020-06-24", 0.0559], ["2020-06-25", 0.0543], ["2020-06-25", 0.0521], ["2020-06-30", 0.0504], ["2020-07-02", 0.0492], ["2020-07-03", 0.0493], ["2020-07-04", 0.0479], ["2020-07-07", 0.0469], ["2020-07-08", 0.0503], ["2020-07-08", 0.0519], ["2020-07-08", 0.0503], ["2020-07-08", 0.0497], ["2020-07-09", 0.0541], ["2020-07-09", 0.0531], ["2020-07-10", 0.0517], ["2020-07-10", 0.053], ["2020-07-12", 0.0518], ["2020-07-13", 0.0518], ["2020-07-13", 0.051], ["2020-07-14", 0.0505], ["2020-07-14", 0.0495], ["2020-07-15", 0.0488], ["2020-07-15", 0.048], ["2020-07-20", 0.0536], ["2020-07-22", 0.0533], ["2020-07-23", 0.0523], ["2020-07-23", 0.0515], ["2020-07-24", 0.0606], ["2020-07-24", 0.0604], ["2020-07-25", 0.0612], ["2020-07-25", 0.062], ["2020-07-26", 0.0608], ["2020-07-26", 0.0615], ["2020-07-26", 0.0609], ["2020-07-26", 0.0611], ["2020-07-26", 0.0609], ["2020-07-27", 0.06], ["2020-07-27", 0.0589], ["2020-07-28", 0.0588], ["2020-07-29", 0.0581], ["2020-07-30", 0.0572], ["2020-07-31", 0.0564], ["2020-07-31", 0.0635], ["2020-08-01", 0.0638], ["2020-08-02", 0.0636], ["2020-08-03", 0.0626], ["2020-08-03", 0.0624], ["2020-08-03", 0.0637], ["2020-08-04", 0.0654], ["2020-08-04", 0.0662], ["2020-08-04", 0.0667], ["2020-08-05", 0.066], ["2020-08-07", 0.0656], ["2020-08-10", 0.0651], ["2020-08-10", 0.0644], ["2020-08-10", 0.0635], ["2020-08-15", 0.0631], ["2020-08-16", 0.0657], ["2020-08-18", 0.0651], ["2020-08-18", 0.0657], ["2020-08-18", 0.0649], ["2020-08-18", 0.0642], ["2020-08-19", 0.0639], ["2020-08-19", 0.0633], ["2020-08-19", 0.0631], ["2020-08-21", 0.0626], ["2020-08-22", 0.0628], ["2020-08-23", 0.0627], ["2020-08-27", 0.0631], ["2020-08-27", 0.0626], ["2020-08-28", 0.0621], ["2020-08-29", 0.0618], ["2020-08-30", 0.0611], ["2020-08-31", 0.0606], ["2020-08-31", 0.0606], ["2020-08-31", 0.0601], ["2020-08-31", 0.0611], ["2020-08-31", 0.0597], ["2020-09-01", 0.059], ["2020-09-03", 0.0585], ["2020-09-03", 0.058], ["2020-09-05", 0.0576], ["2020-09-05", 0.0571], ["2020-09-05", 0.0566], ["2020-09-07", 0.0572], ["2020-09-07", 0.0571], ["2020-09-07", 0.057], ["2020-09-07", 0.0564], ["2020-09-12", 0.0589], ["2020-09-12", 0.0603], ["2020-09-14", 0.0602], ["2020-09-15", 0.0596], ["2020-09-15", 0.059], ["2020-09-15", 0.0584], ["2020-09-15", 0.057], ["2020-09-16", 0.0567], ["2020-09-17", 0.0564], ["2020-09-18", 0.0606], ["2020-09-21", 0.0604], ["2020-09-23", 0.0606], ["2020-09-24", 0.0596], ["2020-09-24", 0.0597], ["2020-09-25", 0.0596], ["2020-09-25", 0.0595], ["2020-09-25", 0.0594], ["2020-09-26", 0.063], ["2020-09-27", 0.0628], ["2020-09-28", 0.0637], ["2020-09-28", 0.0642], ["2020-09-29", 0.0638], ["2020-09-29", 0.0633], ["2020-09-30", 0.0644], ["2020-09-30", 0.0637], ["2020-10-01", 0.063], ["2020-10-02", 0.0623], ["2020-10-04", 0.062], ["2020-10-05", 0.062], ["2020-10-07", 0.0616], ["2020-10-07", 0.0616], ["2020-10-10", 0.0619], ["2020-10-14", 0.0619], ["2020-10-14", 0.0612], ["2020-10-14", 0.0606], ["2020-10-14", 0.0605], ["2020-10-17", 0.0604], ["2020-10-17", 0.0607], ["2020-10-17", 0.0602], ["2020-10-17", 0.0596], ["2020-10-17", 0.0595], ["2020-10-19", 0.0598], ["2020-10-19", 0.0604], ["2020-10-19", 0.0616], ["2020-10-19", 0.0612], ["2020-10-19", 0.0616], ["2020-10-19", 0.0616], ["2020-10-19", 0.0587], ["2020-10-20", 0.0582], ["2020-10-20", 0.0577], ["2020-10-21", 0.0573], ["2020-10-21", 0.0574], ["2020-10-21", 0.0573], ["2020-10-22", 0.0567], ["2020-10-23", 0.0566], ["2020-10-25", 0.0549], ["2020-10-28", 0.056], ["2020-10-29", 0.0559], ["2020-11-05", 0.0555], ["2020-11-06", 0.0542], ["2020-11-06", 0.0537], ["2020-11-08", 0.0537], ["2020-11-08", 0.0531], ["2020-11-09", 0.0518], ["2020-11-10", 0.0519], ["2020-11-11", 0.0519]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/21 | <p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Context. </b>The People’s Republic of China regards Taiwan as an inevitable part of its territory and has threatened to invade it if the Taiwanese government takes steps toward formally declaring independence (<a href="http://Anti-Secession%20Law,%202005" target="_blank" style="">Anti-Seccession Law, 2005</a>). The current President of Taiwan, Tsai Ying-wen, belongs to a pro-independence political party. She was re-elected to office in January 2020. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also conducted force modernization and drills to improve its readiness to invade Taiwan (</span></span><a href="https://media.defense.gov/2019/May/02/2002127082/-1/-1/1/2019_CHINA_MILITARY_POWER_REPORT.pdf" target="_blank">2019 China Military Power Report</a>)<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">.</span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><b>Data and resolution details. </b>The question resolves based on popular media sources. "Invade" refers to initiating hostilities for the purpose of annexation.</p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;">This question is a metric for the following scenarios:</p><ul>
<li style="line-height: 1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/three_worlds" target="_blank">Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today</a></li>
<li style="line-height: 1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/isolated-china" target="_blank">An Isolated China in a Globalized World</a></li>
</ul><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><br></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="font-size: 19pt;font-family: futura-pt;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-color: transparent;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;text-decoration: none;vertical-align: baseline;white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-11-11 | Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? | cset | 0 |
2020-10-01 | 2020-06-04 | ["https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/the-us-new-cold-war-battle-cry-in-the-south-china-sea/", "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php#:~:text=Natural%20Gas%20Consumption.,d%20(4.5%25)%20in%202021", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-07-15/china-done-biding-its-time", "https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pentagon-warns-of-south-china-sea-military-build-up-20200901-p55r7r", "https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-fishing-boats-near-galapagos-sign-of-competition-for-fish-2020-8", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/world/asia/missiles-south-china-sea.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1140891.shtml", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3102419/taiwan-military-redefines-rules-engagement-allow-forces-fire", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea#Incidents_involving_fishermen", "https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warns-chinas-aggressive-fishing-boats-could-start-a-war-2019-1", "https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12349105", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4838/will-there-be-deadly-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea-in-2020/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china-security-analysis/polishing-the-gun-china-u-s-tensions-raise-taiwan-conflict-fears-idUSKBN25M0VE", "https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32980/a-fire-has-broken-out-on-chinas-massive-new-type-075-amphibious-assault-ship", "https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/make-the-right-call-on-malabar-going-quad/article32132584.ece", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3093057/beijing-accuses-us-stirring-division-over-south-china-sea", "https://www.ft.com/content/0f423616-d9f2-4ca6-8d3b-a04d467ed6f8", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/Indonesia-south-china-sea-fishing.html", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3096978/south-china-sea-chinese-military-told-not-fire-first-shot?mc_cid=dbb1521812&mc_eid=d7342736f9", "https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-sea-tensions-hot-and-getting-hotter/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/world/asia/missiles-south-china-sea.html/", "https://www.cfr.org/report/military-confrontation-south-china-sea", "https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korean-patrol-boat-fires-chinese-fishing-boats-killing-three/", "https://news.usni.org/2020/08/27/destroyer-conducts-south-china-sea-fonop-day-after-chinese-carrier-killer-missile-tests"] | binary | [["2020-06-04", 0.15], ["2020-06-04", 0.05], ["2020-06-05", 0.05], ["2020-06-05", 0.0667], ["2020-06-05", 0.075], ["2020-06-05", 0.09], ["2020-06-05", 0.175], ["2020-06-05", 0.15], ["2020-06-05", 0.2375], ["2020-06-05", 0.2222], ["2020-06-05", 0.23], ["2020-06-05", 0.2182], ["2020-06-05", 0.2083], ["2020-06-05", 0.2], ["2020-06-05", 0.1929], ["2020-06-05", 0.2133], ["2020-06-05", 0.2125], ["2020-06-05", 0.2035], ["2020-06-05", 0.2144], ["2020-06-05", 0.2058], ["2020-06-05", 0.1985], ["2020-06-05", 0.1938], ["2020-06-05", 0.1864], ["2020-06-05", 0.1826], ["2020-06-08", 0.1775], ["2020-06-08", 0.1804], ["2020-06-09", 0.1773], ["2020-06-10", 0.1781], ["2020-06-15", 0.1781], ["2020-06-18", 0.1736], ["2020-06-18", 0.1728], ["2020-06-19", 0.1703], ["2020-06-20", 0.17], ["2020-06-22", 0.1656], ["2020-06-23", 0.1636], ["2020-06-24", 0.1603], ["2020-06-25", 0.1571], ["2020-06-25", 0.1556], ["2020-06-26", 0.1564], ["2020-06-28", 0.1543], ["2020-06-28", 0.1508], ["2020-06-28", 0.1477], ["2020-06-28", 0.1443], ["2020-06-28", 0.1437], ["2020-06-28", 0.1414], ["2020-06-28", 0.14], ["2020-06-28", 0.1407], ["2020-06-30", 0.1407], ["2020-07-02", 0.143], ["2020-07-04", 0.1398], ["2020-07-05", 0.1371], ["2020-07-06", 0.1352], ["2020-07-07", 0.1345], ["2020-07-10", 0.1346], ["2020-07-12", 0.1349], ["2020-07-12", 0.1352], ["2020-07-14", 0.1365], ["2020-07-14", 0.1367], ["2020-07-15", 0.1342], ["2020-07-15", 0.1334], ["2020-07-16", 0.1328], ["2020-07-17", 0.1304], ["2020-07-19", 0.128], ["2020-07-20", 0.1258], ["2020-07-21", 0.1305], ["2020-07-23", 0.1325], ["2020-07-24", 0.132], ["2020-07-27", 0.1302], ["2020-07-28", 0.1289], ["2020-07-28", 0.127], ["2020-07-28", 0.1281], ["2020-07-29", 0.1277], ["2020-07-29", 0.1267], ["2020-07-30", 0.1337], ["2020-07-30", 0.1332], ["2020-07-31", 0.1316], ["2020-07-31", 0.1311], ["2020-08-01", 0.1294], ["2020-08-02", 0.1283], ["2020-08-03", 0.1279], ["2020-08-03", 0.1276], ["2020-08-03", 0.1267], ["2020-08-04", 0.1253], ["2020-08-04", 0.1243], ["2020-08-04", 0.1243], ["2020-08-04", 0.1227], ["2020-08-04", 0.1218], ["2020-08-04", 0.1209], ["2020-08-04", 0.1206], ["2020-08-04", 0.1198], ["2020-08-04", 0.1184], ["2020-08-04", 0.119], ["2020-08-04", 0.1184], ["2020-08-04", 0.1181], ["2020-08-04", 0.1173], ["2020-08-04", 0.1176], ["2020-08-06", 0.1156], ["2020-08-06", 0.1151], ["2020-08-06", 0.1149], ["2020-08-07", 0.1153], ["2020-08-07", 0.1147], ["2020-08-08", 0.1145], ["2020-08-10", 0.1132], ["2020-08-10", 0.1139], ["2020-08-11", 0.1136], ["2020-08-11", 0.1127], ["2020-08-11", 0.1121], ["2020-08-11", 0.1114], ["2020-08-12", 0.1098], ["2020-08-15", 0.1096], ["2020-08-16", 0.1086], ["2020-08-16", 0.1082], ["2020-08-16", 0.108], ["2020-08-18", 0.1077], ["2020-08-19", 0.1134], ["2020-08-19", 0.1125], ["2020-08-21", 0.1123], ["2020-08-21", 0.1113], ["2020-08-22", 0.1112], ["2020-08-23", 0.1107], ["2020-08-23", 0.1104], ["2020-08-26", 0.1101], ["2020-08-27", 0.1106], ["2020-08-27", 0.1097], ["2020-08-27", 0.1146], ["2020-08-27", 0.114], ["2020-08-27", 0.1139], ["2020-08-27", 0.1128], ["2020-08-28", 0.1099], ["2020-08-28", 0.1108], ["2020-08-28", 0.1102], ["2020-08-28", 0.1094], ["2020-08-28", 0.1084], ["2020-08-28", 0.1078], ["2020-08-28", 0.1078], ["2020-08-29", 0.1094], ["2020-08-29", 0.1083], ["2020-08-29", 0.1096], ["2020-08-29", 0.1088], ["2020-08-30", 0.1084], ["2020-08-31", 0.1081], ["2020-08-31", 0.1076], ["2020-08-31", 0.1071], ["2020-08-31", 0.1062], ["2020-08-31", 0.1062], ["2020-08-31", 0.1062], ["2020-08-31", 0.1056], ["2020-08-31", 0.1053], ["2020-08-31", 0.1051], ["2020-09-01", 0.1042], ["2020-09-01", 0.1042], ["2020-09-01", 0.1038], ["2020-09-01", 0.1035], ["2020-09-02", 0.1031], ["2020-09-02", 0.1026], ["2020-09-03", 0.1019], ["2020-09-04", 0.1012], ["2020-09-05", 0.1004], ["2020-09-05", 0.1002], ["2020-09-05", 0.0994], ["2020-09-06", 0.099], ["2020-09-07", 0.0986], ["2020-09-07", 0.0991], ["2020-09-07", 0.0983], ["2020-09-07", 0.0983], ["2020-09-07", 0.0976], ["2020-09-08", 0.0975], ["2020-09-09", 0.0972], ["2020-09-09", 0.0967], ["2020-09-10", 0.0959], ["2020-09-10", 0.0953], ["2020-09-10", 0.0952], ["2020-09-11", 0.095], ["2020-09-12", 0.0949], ["2020-09-13", 0.0944], ["2020-09-13", 0.0943], ["2020-09-13", 0.0942], ["2020-09-14", 0.0941], ["2020-09-14", 0.0939], ["2020-09-14", 0.0934], ["2020-09-15", 0.0927], ["2020-09-15", 0.092], ["2020-09-16", 0.092], ["2020-09-16", 0.0917], ["2020-09-16", 0.091], ["2020-09-16", 0.0905], ["2020-09-16", 0.0907], ["2020-09-17", 0.0901], ["2020-09-17", 0.0895], ["2020-09-18", 0.089], ["2020-09-19", 0.0912], ["2020-09-19", 0.0912], ["2020-09-19", 0.0911], ["2020-09-20", 0.091], ["2020-09-21", 0.0909], ["2020-09-21", 0.0898], ["2020-09-21", 0.0894], ["2020-09-21", 0.0893], ["2020-09-21", 0.0893], ["2020-09-22", 0.0891], ["2020-09-23", 0.0888], ["2020-09-23", 0.0883], ["2020-09-23", 0.0881], ["2020-09-23", 0.0875], ["2020-09-23", 0.0867], ["2020-09-24", 0.0865], ["2020-09-24", 0.0863], ["2020-09-24", 0.086], ["2020-09-24", 0.0858], ["2020-09-24", 0.0857], ["2020-09-24", 0.0856], ["2020-09-24", 0.085], ["2020-09-25", 0.0844], ["2020-09-25", 0.0841], ["2020-09-25", 0.0841], ["2020-09-25", 0.084], ["2020-09-26", 0.062], ["2020-09-26", 0.0622], ["2020-09-26", 0.0617], ["2020-09-27", 0.0611], ["2020-09-27", 0.0607], ["2020-09-27", 0.0667], ["2020-09-28", 0.066], ["2020-09-28", 0.0659], ["2020-09-28", 0.0658], ["2020-09-28", 0.0619], ["2020-09-28", 0.0661], ["2020-09-28", 0.0703], ["2020-09-28", 0.0701], ["2020-09-28", 0.0695], ["2020-09-28", 0.0693], ["2020-09-28", 0.0684], ["2020-09-28", 0.0683], ["2020-09-28", 0.0682], ["2020-09-28", 0.0678], ["2020-09-28", 0.0677], ["2020-09-28", 0.0671], ["2020-09-28", 0.067], ["2020-09-28", 0.0662], ["2020-09-28", 0.0672], ["2020-09-28", 0.066], ["2020-09-29", 0.0655], ["2020-09-29", 0.0654], ["2020-09-29", 0.0656], ["2020-09-29", 0.0651], ["2020-09-29", 0.065], ["2020-09-29", 0.0619], ["2020-09-30", 0.0616], ["2020-09-30", 0.0616], ["2020-09-30", 0.0615], ["2020-09-30", 0.0609], ["2020-09-30", 0.0605], ["2020-09-30", 0.0603], ["2020-09-30", 0.0602], ["2020-10-01", 0.0596], ["2020-10-01", 0.0596]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/28 | <p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas (</span><a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank" style="">Lynn Kuok, 2018</a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">). These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" style=""><span class="s1" style="">(Spatial Source, 2018)</span></a>. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" style=""><span class="s1" style="">(USNI News)</span></a>. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" style=""><span class="s1" style="">(Andrew Erickson)</span></a>. </span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.</span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">***</span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:</span></span></span></p><ul><li style="line-height: 1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/three_worlds" target="_blank">Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today</a></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/isolated-china" target="_blank">An Isolated China in a Globalized World</a></span></span></span></li></ul><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. </i><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: futura-pt;font-size: 16pt;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;white-space: pre-wrap;background-color: transparent;"><br></span></span></span></span></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-10-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-06-29 | 2020-06-16 | ["https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/total-combat-potential-will-deter-chinese-assault-forces/articleshow/76653648.cms", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53174887?mc_cid=1f4ef47c41&mc_eid=d7342736f9", "https://zeenews.india.com/india/india-army-deploys-3-divisions-in-ladakh-bolsters-its-position-on-lac-in-aksai-chin-2291984.html/amp", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-china-reach-accord-to-diffuse-border-tensions-11592927373", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/opinion/China-India-conflict.html", "https://indianexpress.com/article/india/chinese-building-helipad-in-pangong-tso-massing-troops-on-southern-bank-of-lake-6478087/", "https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3090855/prepare-india-border-row-escalate-chinese-strategists-warn", "https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2020/06/28/satellite-images-show-buildup-india", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnCY_B8_Cmw", "https://twitter.com/rhinohistorian", "https://m.timesofindia.com/india/indian-chinese-commanders-hold-parley-on-border-amid-growing-calls-to-boycott-chinese-goods/articleshow/76508846.cms?mc_cid=4058cbcf4f&mc_eid=d7342736f9", "https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1276127053083885570?s=20", "https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/ladakh-lac-akash-missile-air-defence-system-indian-army-china-latest-news-629727", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53118473", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-border/indian-and-chinese-military-agree-to-disengage-in-disputed-himalayan-border-idUSKBN23U0UH", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-india-exclusive-idUSKCN1UW1FF", "https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1276559047513174017?s=20", "https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/280620/satellite-images-show-buildup-on-india-china-border.html", "https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ladakh-face-off-chinese-media-lauds-modis-speech/article31884175.ece", "https://tnsr.org/2019/02/how-to-think-about-nuclear-crises/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-china-border-dispute-turns-deadly-11592305962", "https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/has-pm-narendra-modi-given-clean-chit-to-china-by-saying-no-intrusion-in-indian-territory-asks-chidambaram/story-73vfpXyq7Ek4tUXRLW2OzN.html", "https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/strategic-postures-china-and-india-visual-guide", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War"] | binary | [["2020-06-18", 0.25], ["2020-06-18", 0.2], ["2020-06-18", 0.2333], ["2020-06-18", 0.2175], ["2020-06-18", 0.194], ["2020-06-18", 0.1867], ["2020-06-18", 0.2117], ["2020-06-18", 0.1814], ["2020-06-18", 0.1775], ["2020-06-18", 0.2244], ["2020-06-18", 0.202], ["2020-06-18", 0.1927], ["2020-06-18", 0.1767], ["2020-06-19", 0.1708], ["2020-06-19", 0.1729], ["2020-06-19", 0.168], ["2020-06-19", 0.1633], ["2020-06-19", 0.1594], ["2020-06-19", 0.1529], ["2020-06-19", 0.1667], ["2020-06-20", 0.1644], ["2020-06-20", 0.16], ["2020-06-21", 0.1621], ["2020-06-21", 0.1565], ["2020-06-21", 0.1514], ["2020-06-22", 0.1468], ["2020-06-22", 0.1448], ["2020-06-23", 0.1408], ["2020-06-23", 0.1452], ["2020-06-24", 0.1454], ["2020-06-24", 0.1423], ["2020-06-24", 0.1389], ["2020-06-24", 0.1333], ["2020-06-24", 0.1304], ["2020-06-25", 0.1276], ["2020-06-25", 0.1243], ["2020-06-25", 0.1219], ["2020-06-25", 0.1197], ["2020-06-25", 0.1191], ["2020-06-26", 0.1176], ["2020-06-26", 0.1147], ["2020-06-26", 0.1074], ["2020-06-26", 0.1057], ["2020-06-26", 0.1029], ["2020-06-26", 0.1006], ["2020-06-26", 0.0981], ["2020-06-26", 0.0959], ["2020-06-26", 0.0947], ["2020-06-26", 0.0942], ["2020-06-26", 0.0931], ["2020-06-26", 0.0913], ["2020-06-26", 0.0915], ["2020-06-26", 0.091], ["2020-06-26", 0.0891], ["2020-06-26", 0.0886], ["2020-06-27", 0.0871], ["2020-06-27", 0.0896], ["2020-06-27", 0.0877], ["2020-06-27", 0.0867], ["2020-06-27", 0.0859], ["2020-06-27", 0.0844], ["2020-06-27", 0.0827], ["2020-06-27", 0.0821], ["2020-06-27", 0.0873], ["2020-06-27", 0.086], ["2020-06-27", 0.0848], ["2020-06-27", 0.0842], ["2020-06-27", 0.0838], ["2020-06-27", 0.0832], ["2020-06-27", 0.0832], ["2020-06-27", 0.0825], ["2020-06-27", 0.0789], ["2020-06-27", 0.0737], ["2020-06-28", 0.0741], ["2020-06-28", 0.0738], ["2020-06-28", 0.0727], ["2020-06-28", 0.0722], ["2020-06-28", 0.0718], ["2020-06-28", 0.0713], ["2020-06-28", 0.0712], ["2020-06-28", 0.0705], ["2020-06-28", 0.0698], ["2020-06-28", 0.0689], ["2020-06-28", 0.0677], ["2020-06-29", 0.0669], ["2020-06-29", 0.0666], ["2020-06-29", 0.0666]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/46 | <p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Context. </b>On June 15, 2020, a violent clash occurred between the Indian Army and People’s Liberation Army near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between China and India in the disputed territory of Aksai Chin. While casualty figures are still unclear, between three and 20 Indian soldiers are believed to have been killed with an indeterminate number captured. PLA casualty figures are unknown (</span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476" style=""><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">BBC</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">). This is the first time in 55 years that a clash near the LAC has resulted in fatalities, and the Indian media has called the dead soldiers “martyrs” (</span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476" style=""><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">News 18 India</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">).</span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br></span><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on reports in popular media sources. A qualifying event is one in which either the Chinese or Indian government authorizes a military escalation anywhere along the two nations' mutual border. The actions of deniable actors, such as militia or terrorist organizations, do not count for the purposes of resolving this question.</p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><br></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;">This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:</p><ul><li style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/three_worlds" target="_blank">Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today</a></li><li style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/isolated-china" target="_blank">An Isolated China in a Globalized World</a></li></ul><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><br></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;">***<br><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><br></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-06-29 | Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-08-11 | 2020-06-17 | ["https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2020/07/17/comac-boeing-airbus-arj21-regional-jets-china-buys.html", "https://itif.org/publications/2020/06/22/how-chinas-mercantilist-policies-have-undermined-global-innovation-telecom", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/apple-china-iphone-sales-jump-sharply-in-the-second-quarter.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-entities/china-publication-of-unreliable-entities-list-depends-on-sino-u-s-trade-talks-sources-idUSKBN1WQ28L", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/qualcomm-inks-licensing-deal-with-huawei-despite-u-s-china-tensions-11596059709", "https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/us-2020-presidential-election-swings-in-bidens-favour/", "https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/china-threatens-put-american-tech-giants-its-unreliable-entity-list", "https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3094024/chinas-lockheed-martin-sanctions-reveal-limited-options", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-acacia-communications-m-a-cisco-syste/cisco-awaits-regulatory-approval-from-china-on-acacia-takeover-deal-idUSKCN24N233", "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/cisco-blocked-china-trade-war-heats/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/01/29/boeing-and-china-need-to-make-up-for-lost-time-in-aircraft-sales-as-us-china-trade-war-eases/#4a96e0c63351", "https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20190729-chinas-unreliable-entity-list", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-15/china-warms-to-idea-of-four-more-years-of-trump-presidency", "https://www.ft.com/content/3c532149-94b2-4023-82e0-b51190dc2c46", "http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1162388.shtml", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-qualcomm-jointventure-idUSKCN1RV0CD", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/apple-china-sales-bounce-as-economy-reopens-after-coronavirus-impact.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/16/decaying-us-china-relationship-365431", "https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-factory-foxconn-china-photos-tour-2018-5", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/16/us-companies-kowtow-china/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3086802/us-china-tensions-set-worsen-moderates-lose-out-hardliners", "https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/09/china-reportedly-orders-state-offices-to-remove-foreign-tech.html", "https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/the-chip-wars-of-the-21st-century/", "https://www.ft.com/content/68460d62-0f65-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-huawei-tech-china/china-ready-to-put-apple-other-u-s-companies-in-unreliable-entity-list-global-times-idUSKBN22R1X2"] | binary | [["2020-06-18", 0.47], ["2020-06-18", 0.515], ["2020-06-18", 0.4533], ["2020-06-18", 0.3425], ["2020-06-19", 0.354], ["2020-06-19", 0.3117], ["2020-06-19", 0.3386], ["2020-06-20", 0.315], ["2020-06-21", 0.3022], ["2020-06-22", 0.327], ["2020-06-23", 0.3155], ["2020-06-23", 0.31], ["2020-06-23", 0.3438], ["2020-06-23", 0.3323], ["2020-06-23", 0.3407], ["2020-06-23", 0.3313], ["2020-06-24", 0.3106], ["2020-06-24", 0.3041], ["2020-06-25", 0.2928], ["2020-06-25", 0.28], ["2020-06-26", 0.269], ["2020-06-28", 0.261], ["2020-06-28", 0.2582], ["2020-06-30", 0.247], ["2020-07-01", 0.2763], ["2020-07-04", 0.2692], ["2020-07-06", 0.2615], ["2020-07-07", 0.2704], ["2020-07-07", 0.2632], ["2020-07-07", 0.2628], ["2020-07-07", 0.264], ["2020-07-08", 0.2571], ["2020-07-08", 0.2522], ["2020-07-08", 0.2506], ["2020-07-08", 0.2367], ["2020-07-08", 0.2341], ["2020-07-09", 0.2446], ["2020-07-09", 0.2572], ["2020-07-09", 0.2557], ["2020-07-09", 0.2529], ["2020-07-09", 0.249], ["2020-07-09", 0.2465], ["2020-07-09", 0.244], ["2020-07-09", 0.2417], ["2020-07-09", 0.2371], ["2020-07-09", 0.2363], ["2020-07-10", 0.232], ["2020-07-10", 0.2318], ["2020-07-10", 0.2267], ["2020-07-10", 0.2251], ["2020-07-10", 0.2288], ["2020-07-10", 0.2261], ["2020-07-11", 0.2256], ["2020-07-12", 0.228], ["2020-07-12", 0.2261], ["2020-07-13", 0.2244], ["2020-07-14", 0.2215], ["2020-07-14", 0.2202], ["2020-07-15", 0.2162], ["2020-07-15", 0.2159], ["2020-07-15", 0.213], ["2020-07-15", 0.2134], ["2020-07-16", 0.2107], ["2020-07-17", 0.2097], ["2020-07-18", 0.2062], ["2020-07-18", 0.2045], ["2020-07-19", 0.2092], ["2020-07-19", 0.2067], ["2020-07-19", 0.2051], ["2020-07-20", 0.2032], ["2020-07-20", 0.2018], ["2020-07-20", 0.1988], ["2020-07-21", 0.1966], ["2020-07-21", 0.2032], ["2020-07-21", 0.201], ["2020-07-22", 0.2003], ["2020-07-22", 0.2024], ["2020-07-23", 0.1996], ["2020-07-23", 0.1982], ["2020-07-24", 0.1939], ["2020-07-24", 0.1926], ["2020-07-24", 0.1929], ["2020-07-24", 0.1903], ["2020-07-24", 0.1931], ["2020-07-25", 0.1912], ["2020-07-25", 0.1899], ["2020-07-25", 0.1879], ["2020-07-25", 0.1859], ["2020-07-25", 0.1843], ["2020-07-25", 0.1825], ["2020-07-25", 0.1809], ["2020-07-25", 0.1793], ["2020-07-25", 0.1783], ["2020-07-25", 0.1777], ["2020-07-26", 0.1768], ["2020-07-26", 0.1753], ["2020-07-26", 0.1745], ["2020-07-26", 0.1759], ["2020-07-26", 0.1762], ["2020-07-27", 0.175], ["2020-07-27", 0.1734], ["2020-07-28", 0.1726], ["2020-07-28", 0.1713], ["2020-07-28", 0.1721], ["2020-07-28", 0.1719], ["2020-07-29", 0.1711], ["2020-07-29", 0.171], ["2020-07-30", 0.1721], ["2020-07-30", 0.1716], ["2020-07-30", 0.1711], ["2020-07-30", 0.1704], ["2020-07-31", 0.1699], ["2020-08-01", 0.1743], ["2020-08-01", 0.1745], ["2020-08-01", 0.1742], ["2020-08-02", 0.1765], ["2020-08-02", 0.1787], ["2020-08-02", 0.1789], ["2020-08-02", 0.1796], ["2020-08-02", 0.1792], ["2020-08-02", 0.1799], ["2020-08-02", 0.1785], ["2020-08-03", 0.1772], ["2020-08-03", 0.1775], ["2020-08-03", 0.1762], ["2020-08-03", 0.1748], ["2020-08-03", 0.1736], ["2020-08-03", 0.1724], ["2020-08-03", 0.1718], ["2020-08-03", 0.1711], ["2020-08-03", 0.17], ["2020-08-03", 0.1685], ["2020-08-03", 0.1676], ["2020-08-04", 0.1661], ["2020-08-04", 0.1652], ["2020-08-04", 0.1648], ["2020-08-04", 0.1638], ["2020-08-04", 0.1603], ["2020-08-04", 0.1596], ["2020-08-05", 0.159], ["2020-08-05", 0.1577], ["2020-08-05", 0.1574], ["2020-08-05", 0.1569], ["2020-08-06", 0.1531], ["2020-08-06", 0.1523], ["2020-08-06", 0.1515], ["2020-08-06", 0.1503], ["2020-08-06", 0.1501], ["2020-08-06", 0.1479], ["2020-08-06", 0.1479], ["2020-08-06", 0.1476], ["2020-08-06", 0.1464], ["2020-08-06", 0.144], ["2020-08-07", 0.1431], ["2020-08-07", 0.1453], ["2020-08-07", 0.1423], ["2020-08-07", 0.1419], ["2020-08-07", 0.1381], ["2020-08-07", 0.1378], ["2020-08-08", 0.1371], ["2020-08-08", 0.137], ["2020-08-09", 0.136], ["2020-08-09", 0.1358], ["2020-08-09", 0.1358], ["2020-08-09", 0.1354], ["2020-08-10", 0.1344], ["2020-08-10", 0.1334], ["2020-08-10", 0.1364], ["2020-08-10", 0.1348], ["2020-08-10", 0.1337], ["2020-08-10", 0.133], ["2020-08-10", 0.131], ["2020-08-10", 0.1307], ["2020-08-10", 0.1297], ["2020-08-11", 0.1297]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/48 | <p><b>Context. </b><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">Tensions between the U.S. and China heightened in mid-May when the Commerce Department </span><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-semiconductor-cold-war-is-heating-up-between-the-us-and-china-2020-06-01" style=""><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">announced</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> that any company (U.S. or foreign) selling chips to Huawei will have to acquire a license if they use U.S. intellectual property or equipment in their production process. </span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">The Global Times, a daily tabloid newspaper under the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper, </span><a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1188491.shtml" style=""><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">reported</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> on May 15 that the Chinese government is ready to take a series of countermeasures, including adding companies like Apple to an "unreliable entities list."</span></p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. An official announcement about the inclusion of any of these companies in the list will suffice even if the effective date is after August 10, 2020.</p><p> </p><p>***</p><p>This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/three_worlds" target="_blank">Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today</a></li><li><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/isolated-china" target="_blank">An Isolated China in a Globalized World</a></li></ul><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i><br></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-08-11 | Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-07-14 | 2020-06-22 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-contracting-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-finalizing-federal-contract-ban-for-companies-that-use-huawei-others-idUSKBN24A22F", "https://www.realcleardefense.com/2020/06/08/pentagon_reshuffles_rampd_priorities_313880.html", "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/for-part-b-of-section-889-is-compliance-55699/", "https://defensesystems.com/articles/2020/06/17/williams-ndaa-huawei-dod.aspx", "https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=FAR-2018-0017", "https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/dread-over-impending-anti-huawei-law-grows-at-u-s-companies", "https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/the-chip-wars-of-the-21st-century/", "https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/19/20811937/huawei-ban-delay-90-days-rural-telecom-wilbur-ross", "http://thecgp.org/images/Coalition-889-Blog.pdf", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-huawei-tech/u-s-judge-rejects-huawei-challenge-to-federal-law-restricting-its-business-idUSKBN20C2M9", "https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/what-does-a-potential-one-year-delay-46139", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-huawei-tech-extension/u-s-gives-huawei-another-45-days-to-buy-from-american-suppliers-idUSKBN2072UK", "https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/30/21308477/fcc-huawei-zte-ban-universal-service-fund-national-security-threat-risk", "https://www.zdnet.com/article/fcc-officially-designates-huawei-zte-as-national-security-threats/", "https://www.natlawreview.com/article/why-health-care-industry-should-be-concerned-about-section-889-2019-national-defense"] | binary | [["2020-06-22", 0.35], ["2020-06-23", 0.625], ["2020-06-23", 0.55], ["2020-06-23", 0.52], ["2020-06-23", 0.456], ["2020-06-23", 0.4633], ["2020-06-23", 0.5186], ["2020-06-24", 0.5263], ["2020-06-24", 0.5511], ["2020-06-24", 0.562], ["2020-06-25", 0.57], ["2020-06-26", 0.5767], ["2020-06-26", 0.59], ["2020-06-27", 0.5979], ["2020-06-27", 0.605], ["2020-06-27", 0.5764], ["2020-06-28", 0.548], ["2020-06-28", 0.5413], ["2020-06-28", 0.5231], ["2020-06-29", 0.5071], ["2020-06-30", 0.5067], ["2020-06-30", 0.4932], ["2020-06-30", 0.4853], ["2020-07-01", 0.4668], ["2020-07-04", 0.4615], ["2020-07-04", 0.476], ["2020-07-04", 0.4625], ["2020-07-06", 0.4643], ["2020-07-07", 0.4524], ["2020-07-08", 0.431], ["2020-07-08", 0.4159], ["2020-07-09", 0.4261], ["2020-07-09", 0.4204], ["2020-07-09", 0.4148], ["2020-07-09", 0.4017], ["2020-07-09", 0.385], ["2020-07-09", 0.3716], ["2020-07-09", 0.3596], ["2020-07-10", 0.3596]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/52 | <p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;line-height: 1.38;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Context</b>. </span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2018 stipulates that the Department of Defense may not procure “any equipment, system, or service” from a vendor incorporating components from the Chinese companies Huawei or ZTE anywhere in the vendor’s global supply chain. Vendors were allowed a one year grace period to adjust their supply chains from the time of the bill’s signing into law, a period which ends on August 13, 2020 (</span><a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/2810/text">H.R. 2810</a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">). To go into effect, the Executive Branch must issue implementing rules. Using the same rulemaking process, however, the Executive Branch could delay the law's implementation. A draft final rule is <a href="https://www.acq.osd.mil/dpap/dars/opencases/farcasenum/far.pdf" target="_blank">due July 1</a>. </span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">The bill reflects a growing tension between economic and security considerations. On the one hand, the bill would further the U.S. government’s efforts to decouple the U.S. and Chinese economies and respond to data security risks such as Chinese access to surveillance data. On the other hand, the bill threatens the U.S. defense industrial base, a roughly $600 billion industry (</span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/dread-over-impending-anti-huawei-law-grows-at-u-s-companies" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Bloomberg</a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">). </span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;line-height: 1.38;"><br></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;line-height: 1.38;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">***<br>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select <i>Request Clarification</i> from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</span></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-07-10 | Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-07-18 | 2020-06-22 | ["https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/07/07/trump-speeds-up-plans-to-force-foreign-students-others-out-of-us/#18099dd52493", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspending-entry-aliens-present-risk-u-s-labor-market-following-coronavirus-outbreak/", "https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Temporary-Work-Visa-Holders.pdf", "https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/6/12/bacow-pompeo-wolf-letter-immigration/", "https://www.fwd.us/news/what-is-opt/", "https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/skilled-immigration-and-the-employment-structures-of-us-firms", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/03/house-gop-immigration-letter-backs-opt-for-international-students/#749461d6550c", "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/14/2019-02544/maintaining-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence", "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/503914-trump-signs-executive-order-suspending-certain-work-visas-through", "https://poetsandquants.com/2020/06/22/trump-suspends-h-1b-through-2020-but-leaves-opt-intact/", "https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-global-ai-talent-tracker/", "https://www.aplu.org/members/councils/governmental-affairs/CGA-library/international-students--optional-practical-training-opt-program-talking-points/file", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/ai/ai-american-innovation/", "https://www.niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/old_uploads/2019/03/OPT.pdf", "https://www.aau.edu/key-issues/optional-practical-training-opt-and-universities"] | binary | [["2020-06-22", 0.43], ["2020-06-22", 0.24], ["2020-06-23", 0.2267], ["2020-06-23", 0.1725], ["2020-06-23", 0.148], ["2020-06-23", 0.2233], ["2020-06-23", 0.1986], ["2020-06-23", 0.18], ["2020-06-23", 0.2433], ["2020-06-24", 0.244], ["2020-06-24", 0.2218], ["2020-06-24", 0.2242], ["2020-06-24", 0.2223], ["2020-06-24", 0.2215], ["2020-06-24", 0.22], ["2020-06-25", 0.2067], ["2020-06-25", 0.2313], ["2020-06-25", 0.2324], ["2020-06-26", 0.2222], ["2020-06-26", 0.2211], ["2020-06-26", 0.2147], ["2020-06-26", 0.219], ["2020-06-27", 0.2157], ["2020-06-27", 0.2105], ["2020-06-28", 0.21], ["2020-06-28", 0.2052], ["2020-06-29", 0.1979], ["2020-06-29", 0.1979], ["2020-06-29", 0.1924], ["2020-06-30", 0.1946], ["2020-06-30", 0.19], ["2020-07-01", 0.2082], ["2020-07-01", 0.2079], ["2020-07-01", 0.2079], ["2020-07-02", 0.211], ["2020-07-03", 0.2103], ["2020-07-04", 0.2077], ["2020-07-04", 0.2044], ["2020-07-04", 0.1997], ["2020-07-05", 0.1953], ["2020-07-06", 0.1947], ["2020-07-06", 0.1894], ["2020-07-06", 0.1883], ["2020-07-06", 0.1995], ["2020-07-07", 0.1942], ["2020-07-07", 0.1942], ["2020-07-07", 0.1892], ["2020-07-07", 0.1918], ["2020-07-07", 0.1895], ["2020-07-07", 0.1971], ["2020-07-07", 0.2056], ["2020-07-07", 0.2054], ["2020-07-07", 0.2017], ["2020-07-08", 0.2014], ["2020-07-08", 0.2084], ["2020-07-08", 0.2036], ["2020-07-08", 0.2002], ["2020-07-08", 0.1958], ["2020-07-08", 0.198], ["2020-07-08", 0.1981], ["2020-07-09", 0.2127], ["2020-07-09", 0.2088], ["2020-07-09", 0.2206], ["2020-07-09", 0.2182], ["2020-07-10", 0.218], ["2020-07-10", 0.2162], ["2020-07-10", 0.2158], ["2020-07-10", 0.2126], ["2020-07-12", 0.2235], ["2020-07-12", 0.2195], ["2020-07-12", 0.2157], ["2020-07-13", 0.2189], ["2020-07-13", 0.2169], ["2020-07-13", 0.2157], ["2020-07-13", 0.2146], ["2020-07-14", 0.2098], ["2020-07-14", 0.2113], ["2020-07-14", 0.2107], ["2020-07-14", 0.2098], ["2020-07-14", 0.2067], ["2020-07-15", 0.2061], ["2020-07-15", 0.2027], ["2020-07-15", 0.2003], ["2020-07-15", 0.2], ["2020-07-15", 0.197], ["2020-07-15", 0.2002], ["2020-07-15", 0.1994], ["2020-07-15", 0.1991], ["2020-07-15", 0.1989], ["2020-07-15", 0.1966], ["2020-07-15", 0.1944], ["2020-07-15", 0.1942], ["2020-07-16", 0.1921], ["2020-07-16", 0.1897], ["2020-07-16", 0.189], ["2020-07-16", 0.1862], ["2020-07-16", 0.1861], ["2020-07-16", 0.1859], ["2020-07-16", 0.1833], ["2020-07-16", 0.1819], ["2020-07-16", 0.1807], ["2020-07-16", 0.1804], ["2020-07-16", 0.1797], ["2020-07-17", 0.1772], ["2020-07-17", 0.177], ["2020-07-17", 0.1746], ["2020-07-17", 0.1739], ["2020-07-17", 0.1719], ["2020-07-17", 0.1719], ["2020-07-17", 0.1718], ["2020-07-18", 0.1718]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/53 | <p><b>Context. </b>The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program allows international students holding F-1 visas to work in the U.S. for up to 12 months after completing their academic studies. Certain students with STEM degrees are eligible for a 24-month extension of the 12-month period. The U.S. government might cancel or shorten the 24-month extension option. On April 27, 2020, Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf indicated OPT is an<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/04/next-trump-immigration-target-opt-for-international-students/#3eb67f7245f9" target="_blank"> administration target</a>.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources.</p><p>***</p><p class="p1" style="line-height: normal;">To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-07-18 | Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-07-15 | 2020-07-01 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/world/asia/india-china-border-ladakh.html", "https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/06/instagram-reels-arrives-in-india-following-tiktoks-ban/", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/beyond-the-headline/ban-on-tik-tok-is-a-signal-from-india-to-china-that-new-delhi-is-ready-to-escalate/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/technology/india-china-tiktok.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-india-tech/indian-video-sharing-apps-surge-in-popularity-on-tiktok-ban-idUSKBN24416D", "https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/tiktok-banned-chinese-apps-permanent-ban-govt-notice-questionnaire-1699147-2020-07-10", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/02/india-banning-chinese-mobile-apps-tiktok-tech-market/", "https://twitter.com/fravel/status/1280694324968271873", "https://indianexpress.com/article/india/chinese-building-helipad-in-pangong-tso-massing-troops-on-southern-bank-of-lake-6478087/", "https://indiankanoon.org/doc/10190353/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2020/06/29/india-bans-tiktok-58-other-chinese-apps-citing-security-concerns/#369dcb6c7e60", "https://theprint.in/opinion/can-chinese-apps-appeal-india-ban-section-69a-of-it-act-has-answer/455316/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/02/tech/tiktok-ban-india-users/index.html", "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/bytedance-may-move-tiktok-headquarters-out-of-china-as-india-bans-app/articleshow/76880204.cms", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53232075", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pulls-back-from-one-disputed-border-makes-new-claims-on-another-11594052370", "https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/01/tiktok-is-engaging-with-india-over-ban-and-already-complies-with-local-privacy-and-security-requirements-ceo-says", "https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/29/india-bans-tiktok-dozens-of-other-chinese-apps/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK4sEcbqSFpQbOXX-eI6OIsGSydULFlg-yChhBnEBVNDXLYU1gYeR_KAtK_E7g01eQKs74Ydgdt4GO5w-J59ml4XMyeCbB8ynE5I4phnrLstT2MwcAJWYxQb30i94Sb8mUcnLLk42In0k5WllDU3fQ4C1MTMhU5xzE5r20mPRo1e", "https://datayo.org/p/stories/97RU2RJlLouZ7_x3/why-the-old-normal-along-the-sino-indian-border-can-no-longer-stand", "https://www.wired.co.uk/article/tiktok-ban-shutdown", "https://www.india.com/news/india/tiktok-ban-news-tiktok-returning-in-india-after-july-22-4082162/", "https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2020/06/india-china-border-crisis-beijing-ambitions", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pulls-back-from-one-disputed-border-makes-new-claims-on-another-11594052370?mod=hp_lead_pos7", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2020/07/04/tiktok-loses-6-billion-as-users-urged-delete-app-immediately/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/tiktok-distances-beijing-response-india-app-ban-200704070431391.html"] | binary | [["2020-07-01", 0.8], ["2020-07-01", 0.8], ["2020-07-01", 0.8167], ["2020-07-02", 0.8375], ["2020-07-02", 0.86], ["2020-07-02", 0.8583], ["2020-07-02", 0.8771], ["2020-07-02", 0.8913], ["2020-07-02", 0.9033], ["2020-07-02", 0.913], ["2020-07-02", 0.9027], ["2020-07-02", 0.8942], ["2020-07-03", 0.8983], ["2020-07-03", 0.8869], ["2020-07-03", 0.8557], ["2020-07-03", 0.8587], ["2020-07-03", 0.852], ["2020-07-03", 0.8581], ["2020-07-03", 0.8665], ["2020-07-03", 0.8683], ["2020-07-03", 0.8642], ["2020-07-03", 0.866], ["2020-07-03", 0.8676], ["2020-07-03", 0.86], ["2020-07-03", 0.8657], ["2020-07-03", 0.8567], ["2020-07-03", 0.8568], ["2020-07-03", 0.8565], ["2020-07-03", 0.8581], ["2020-07-03", 0.8382], ["2020-07-04", 0.8438], ["2020-07-04", 0.8457], ["2020-07-04", 0.8474], ["2020-07-04", 0.8475], ["2020-07-04", 0.8461], ["2020-07-05", 0.8491], ["2020-07-05", 0.8491], ["2020-07-05", 0.8522], ["2020-07-05", 0.8508], ["2020-07-05", 0.8468], ["2020-07-05", 0.8482], ["2020-07-05", 0.8495], ["2020-07-06", 0.852], ["2020-07-06", 0.8483], ["2020-07-06", 0.8519], ["2020-07-06", 0.8523], ["2020-07-06", 0.8489], ["2020-07-06", 0.85], ["2020-07-06", 0.8489], ["2020-07-06", 0.8415], ["2020-07-07", 0.8426], ["2020-07-07", 0.8434], ["2020-07-07", 0.843], ["2020-07-07", 0.841], ["2020-07-07", 0.8402], ["2020-07-07", 0.8434], ["2020-07-07", 0.8425], ["2020-07-07", 0.8437], ["2020-07-07", 0.8466], ["2020-07-07", 0.8448], ["2020-07-07", 0.8458], ["2020-07-07", 0.8477], ["2020-07-07", 0.8479], ["2020-07-07", 0.8505], ["2020-07-08", 0.8522], ["2020-07-08", 0.8531], ["2020-07-08", 0.8547], ["2020-07-08", 0.8554], ["2020-07-08", 0.8553], ["2020-07-08", 0.8568], ["2020-07-08", 0.8559], ["2020-07-08", 0.8564], ["2020-07-08", 0.844], ["2020-07-08", 0.8448], ["2020-07-08", 0.8457], ["2020-07-08", 0.8465], ["2020-07-08", 0.8451], ["2020-07-08", 0.8459], ["2020-07-08", 0.8459], ["2020-07-09", 0.8432], ["2020-07-09", 0.844], ["2020-07-09", 0.8447], ["2020-07-09", 0.8455], ["2020-07-09", 0.8462], ["2020-07-09", 0.8464], ["2020-07-09", 0.8471], ["2020-07-09", 0.8491], ["2020-07-09", 0.8497], ["2020-07-09", 0.8498], ["2020-07-09", 0.8491], ["2020-07-09", 0.8504], ["2020-07-09", 0.8498], ["2020-07-10", 0.8504], ["2020-07-10", 0.8498], ["2020-07-10", 0.8499], ["2020-07-10", 0.8505], ["2020-07-10", 0.8507], ["2020-07-10", 0.8518], ["2020-07-10", 0.8529], ["2020-07-10", 0.8534], ["2020-07-11", 0.8542], ["2020-07-11", 0.8552], ["2020-07-11", 0.8563], ["2020-07-11", 0.8564], ["2020-07-11", 0.8603], ["2020-07-12", 0.8597], ["2020-07-12", 0.8611], ["2020-07-12", 0.8629], ["2020-07-12", 0.8642], ["2020-07-12", 0.8657], ["2020-07-12", 0.867], ["2020-07-12", 0.8683], ["2020-07-12", 0.8697], ["2020-07-13", 0.871], ["2020-07-13", 0.8714], ["2020-07-13", 0.8715], ["2020-07-13", 0.8716], ["2020-07-13", 0.8729], ["2020-07-13", 0.8748], ["2020-07-13", 0.8757], ["2020-07-13", 0.8765], ["2020-07-13", 0.8769], ["2020-07-13", 0.8781], ["2020-07-13", 0.8786], ["2020-07-13", 0.8798], ["2020-07-13", 0.881], ["2020-07-13", 0.8829], ["2020-07-14", 0.8841], ["2020-07-14", 0.8846], ["2020-07-14", 0.8857], ["2020-07-14", 0.8866], ["2020-07-14", 0.8888], ["2020-07-14", 0.889], ["2020-07-14", 0.8891], ["2020-07-14", 0.8901], ["2020-07-14", 0.8908], ["2020-07-14", 0.8908], ["2020-07-14", 0.8918], ["2020-07-14", 0.8927], ["2020-07-14", 0.8941], ["2020-07-14", 0.8951], ["2020-07-14", 0.8961], ["2020-07-14", 0.897], ["2020-07-15", 0.8995], ["2020-07-15", 0.9], ["2020-07-15", 0.9018], ["2020-07-15", 0.9027], ["2020-07-15", 0.9036], ["2020-07-15", 0.9036], ["2020-07-15", 0.9036]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/55 | <p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Context</b>. On June 29, India </span><a href="https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1635206" style=""><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">announced</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> that 59 Chinese origin applications will be blocked, citing “activities… prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defence of India, security of state and public order.” Among the applications included in the ban is the popular video sharing service TikTok, produced by the Chinese company ByteDance. India is ByteDance’s second largest market after China, with over 120 million active users (</span><a href="https://www.businessofapps.com/data/tik-tok-statistics/#1" style=""><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">Business of Apps</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">). The Indian government previously blocked access to TikTok for two weeks in April 2019 (</span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/02/tech/tiktok-ban-india-users/index.html" style=""><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">CNN</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">).</span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br></span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Data and resolution details</b>.</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> This question resolves based on official announcements from the Indian government.</span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">***</span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.<br></span></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-07-15 | Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?
| cset | 1 |
2020-08-01 | 2020-07-14 | ["https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/5g-elephant-in-the-room", "https://www.theregister.com/2020/06/02/ericsson_o2_germany_5g/", "https://www.ericsson.com/en/press-releases/2020/7/deutsche-telekom-and-ericsson-strengthen-partnership-with-5g-deal", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_123", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_6049", "https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/interactive/huawei-timeline", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-italy/italy-considering-whether-to-exclude-huawei-from-5g-report-idUSKBN2491C1", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-huawei-europe/as-britain-bans-huawei-u-s-pressure-mounts-on-europe-to-follow-suit-idUSKCN24F1XG", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-huawei-5g-security-exclusive/exclusive-french-limits-on-huawei-5g-equipment-amount-to-de-facto-ban-by-2028-idUSKCN24N26R", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-huawei-5g-idUSKBN2460TT", "https://www-ft-com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/content/7d909f98-67b8-4dd2-b31d-b020f7d960e5", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-telekom-describes-potential-huawei-ban-as-armageddon-scenario-101041104.html", "https://ec.europa.eu/search/index.do?queryText=5G&query_source=europa_default&filterSource=europa_default&swlang=en&more_options_language=en&more_options_f_formats=&more_options_date=", "https://www.politico.eu/article/deutsche-telekom-under-pressure-after-reports-on-huawei-reliance/", "https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/interdire-huawei-en-europe-couterait-55-milliards-deuros-aux-operateurs-1341232", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-italy/italy-considering-whether-to-exclude-huawei-from-5g-report-idUKKBN2491C1", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-huawei-5g-security-exclusive-idUSKCN24N26R", "https://science.sciencemag.org/content/345/6196/519", "https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/huawei-5g-restrictions-in-france-equivalent-to-a-ban-8211-reuters-59540847", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/13/europe-divided-on-huawei-as-us-pressure-to-drop-company-grows", "https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/07/16/americas-war-on-huawei-nears-its-endgame", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-5g-italy-brazil-exclusive-idUSKBN24A2AE", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/eu-china-strategic-outlook-commission-contribution-european-council-21-22-march-2019_en", "https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-eu-huawei-5g-china-cybersecurity-toolbox-explained", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-huawei-5g/france-wont-ban-huawei-but-encouraging-5g-telcos-to-avoid-it-report-idUSKBN2460TT"] | binary | [["2020-07-15", 0.47], ["2020-07-15", 0.435], ["2020-07-15", 0.3733], ["2020-07-15", 0.385], ["2020-07-15", 0.328], ["2020-07-15", 0.2983], ["2020-07-15", 0.3043], ["2020-07-15", 0.3175], ["2020-07-15", 0.2933], ["2020-07-15", 0.299], ["2020-07-16", 0.29], ["2020-07-16", 0.3033], ["2020-07-16", 0.2808], ["2020-07-16", 0.2786], ["2020-07-16", 0.2764], ["2020-07-16", 0.2747], ["2020-07-16", 0.2575], ["2020-07-16", 0.2438], ["2020-07-16", 0.2765], ["2020-07-16", 0.275], ["2020-07-16", 0.2711], ["2020-07-16", 0.265], ["2020-07-17", 0.3], ["2020-07-17", 0.2873], ["2020-07-17", 0.2836], ["2020-07-17", 0.28], ["2020-07-17", 0.2767], ["2020-07-17", 0.2725], ["2020-07-18", 0.2736], ["2020-07-18", 0.2796], ["2020-07-18", 0.2876], ["2020-07-18", 0.2881], ["2020-07-18", 0.2904], ["2020-07-18", 0.2961], ["2020-07-18", 0.2962], ["2020-07-19", 0.2963], ["2020-07-19", 0.2868], ["2020-07-19", 0.2841], ["2020-07-20", 0.2876], ["2020-07-21", 0.2879], ["2020-07-21", 0.285], ["2020-07-21", 0.2791], ["2020-07-22", 0.2769], ["2020-07-22", 0.2722], ["2020-07-22", 0.2703], ["2020-07-22", 0.2633], ["2020-07-22", 0.257], ["2020-07-22", 0.2544], ["2020-07-22", 0.2529], ["2020-07-22", 0.2522], ["2020-07-22", 0.2533], ["2020-07-22", 0.2707], ["2020-07-22", 0.2666], ["2020-07-22", 0.2552], ["2020-07-22", 0.2507], ["2020-07-23", 0.2463], ["2020-07-23", 0.243], ["2020-07-23", 0.2474], ["2020-07-23", 0.267], ["2020-07-23", 0.268], ["2020-07-23", 0.2867], ["2020-07-23", 0.2809], ["2020-07-23", 0.281], ["2020-07-23", 0.2855], ["2020-07-23", 0.2935], ["2020-07-23", 0.2976], ["2020-07-24", 0.3059], ["2020-07-24", 0.2996], ["2020-07-24", 0.3047], ["2020-07-24", 0.3106], ["2020-07-24", 0.3076], ["2020-07-24", 0.3035], ["2020-07-24", 0.3054], ["2020-07-26", 0.3009], ["2020-07-26", 0.2972], ["2020-07-26", 0.3009], ["2020-07-26", 0.2961], ["2020-07-26", 0.3014], ["2020-07-26", 0.3005], ["2020-07-26", 0.2953], ["2020-07-26", 0.292], ["2020-07-26", 0.288], ["2020-07-26", 0.2898], ["2020-07-27", 0.2868], ["2020-07-27", 0.2822], ["2020-07-27", 0.2786], ["2020-07-27", 0.2782], ["2020-07-27", 0.2828], ["2020-07-27", 0.2815], ["2020-07-27", 0.2776], ["2020-07-27", 0.2743], ["2020-07-27", 0.2848], ["2020-07-28", 0.2814], ["2020-07-28", 0.288], ["2020-07-28", 0.2868], ["2020-07-28", 0.2792], ["2020-07-28", 0.2767], ["2020-07-28", 0.2865], ["2020-07-28", 0.2828], ["2020-07-28", 0.2824], ["2020-07-28", 0.2804], ["2020-07-28", 0.2781], ["2020-07-29", 0.2764], ["2020-07-29", 0.2754], ["2020-07-29", 0.2748], ["2020-07-29", 0.2714], ["2020-07-29", 0.2686], ["2020-07-29", 0.2683], ["2020-07-29", 0.2646], ["2020-07-29", 0.2609], ["2020-07-29", 0.262], ["2020-07-30", 0.2672], ["2020-07-30", 0.2671], ["2020-07-30", 0.267], ["2020-07-30", 0.2698], ["2020-07-30", 0.2689], ["2020-07-30", 0.2669], ["2020-07-30", 0.2564], ["2020-07-30", 0.2511], ["2020-07-30", 0.2493], ["2020-07-30", 0.246], ["2020-07-30", 0.2437], ["2020-07-30", 0.2433], ["2020-07-30", 0.243], ["2020-07-30", 0.2483], ["2020-07-30", 0.2375], ["2020-07-30", 0.2363], ["2020-07-30", 0.2336], ["2020-07-30", 0.2331], ["2020-07-30", 0.232], ["2020-07-30", 0.2294], ["2020-07-30", 0.2289], ["2020-07-30", 0.2247], ["2020-07-30", 0.2244], ["2020-07-30", 0.2244], ["2020-07-30", 0.2216], ["2020-07-30", 0.2263], ["2020-07-30", 0.2244], ["2020-07-31", 0.2221], ["2020-07-31", 0.2203], ["2020-07-31", 0.2184], ["2020-07-31", 0.2168], ["2020-07-31", 0.2156], ["2020-07-31", 0.2137], ["2020-07-31", 0.2115], ["2020-07-31", 0.2095], ["2020-07-31", 0.2103], ["2020-07-31", 0.2074], ["2020-07-31", 0.2077], ["2020-07-31", 0.2061], ["2020-07-31", 0.2041], ["2020-07-31", 0.2021], ["2020-07-31", 0.2074], ["2020-07-31", 0.2055], ["2020-07-31", 0.2055], ["2020-07-31", 0.2082], ["2020-08-01", 0.2123], ["2020-08-01", 0.2066], ["2020-08-01", 0.2048], ["2020-08-01", 0.2038], ["2020-08-01", 0.2024], ["2020-08-01", 0.2024]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/58 | <p><b>Context. </b>In a "<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/huawei-uk-ban-boris-johnson-5g-network-oliver-dowden-today-a9617886.html" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">major U-turn</a>," o<span style="vertical-align: baseline;">n July 14, 2020, the U.K. announced a ban on the Chinese tech company Huawei. The announcement came one day after </span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien arrived in Paris to discuss 5G networks, among other topics, with his counterparts from the U.K., Germany, France, and Italy. </span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">According to </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-huawei-europe/as-britain-bans-huawei-u-s-pressure-mounts-on-europe-to-follow-suit-idUSKCN24F1XG" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">Reuters</span></a><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">, the U.S. is applying greater pressure on other EU countries to also impose stricter limits on Huawei.</span></p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on official announcements by Italy, France, Spain, and Germany.</p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;line-height: 1.38;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">***</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;line-height: 1.38;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</span></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-08-01 | Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-07-20 | ["https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/16/21327521/twitter-hack-passwords-locked-accounts-restore-access", "https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/an-update-on-our-security-incident.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-cyber/twitter-says-attackers-downloaded-data-from-up-to-eight-non-verified-accounts-idUSKBN24J068", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/technology/twitter-hack-arrest.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/twitter-hack-direct-messages-accessed-including-elected-official.html", "https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/07/hackers-obtained-twitter-dms-for-36-high-profile-account-holders/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-teenager-behind-the-twitter-hack-and-how-he-did-it-11596563449", "https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/31/21349920/twitter-hack-arrest-florida-teen-fbi-irs-secret-service", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/23/twitter-hackers-accessed-dms-of-up-to-36-accounts", "https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/15/21326200/elon-musk-bill-gates-twitter-hack-bitcoin-scam-compromised", "https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/07/whos-behind-wednesdays-epic-twitter-hack/", "https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/tampa-teen-accused-of-being-mastermind-behind-twitter-hack-that-targeted-high-profile-accounts/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/technology/twitter-hack.html", "https://useful-fictions.com/2020/07/22/a-bad-explanation-in-action-the-twitter-attacks/", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/1871", "https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/22/twitter-admits-hackers-accessed-dms-of-dozens-of-high-profile-accounts/#:~:text=A%20hacker%20used%20Twitter%E2%80%99s%20own%20%E2%80%98admin%E2%80%99%20tool%20to,over.%20It%E2%80%99s%20not%20really%20clear%20from%20Twitter%E2%80%99s%20announcement", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-cyber-messages/twitter-says-hackers-saw-messages-from-36-accounts-including-netherlands-official-idUSKCN24O02H", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/us/politics/twitter-hack.html", "https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgxd3d/twitter-insider-access-panel-account-hacks-biden-uber-bezos", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/1964", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/technology/twitter-hackers-interview.html"] | binary | [["2020-07-22", 0.2], ["2020-07-22", 0.4], ["2020-07-22", 0.5633], ["2020-07-22", 0.5725], ["2020-07-22", 0.498], ["2020-07-22", 0.4233], ["2020-07-22", 0.4343], ["2020-07-22", 0.4238], ["2020-07-22", 0.3989], ["2020-07-22", 0.419], ["2020-07-22", 0.4582], ["2020-07-22", 0.4408], ["2020-07-22", 0.43], ["2020-07-22", 0.435], ["2020-07-22", 0.4107], ["2020-07-22", 0.41], ["2020-07-22", 0.3976], ["2020-07-22", 0.3906], ["2020-07-22", 0.3779], ["2020-07-22", 0.389], ["2020-07-22", 0.3943], ["2020-07-23", 0.3786], ["2020-07-23", 0.3968], ["2020-07-23", 0.4057], ["2020-07-23", 0.4274], ["2020-07-23", 0.4304], ["2020-07-23", 0.4367], ["2020-07-23", 0.4512], ["2020-07-23", 0.4544], 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0.1849], ["2020-10-29", 0.184], ["2020-10-29", 0.1835], ["2020-10-29", 0.1821], ["2020-10-29", 0.1807], ["2020-10-29", 0.1803], ["2020-10-30", 0.1803]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/60 | <p><b>Context. </b>On July 15, 2020, hackers took control of 45 prominent Twitter users' accounts, including the accounts of Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos. The apparent purpose of the hack was a Bitcoin scam, but some have speculated that the Bitcoin scam "may mask a much more troubling data breach involving the personal communications of the world's most powerful people" (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/tech/twitter-hack-security-analysis/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Twitter stated on July 17 that for "up to eight" accounts, the hackers downloaded account data through Twitter's "Your Twitter Data" tool.</p><p><b>Data and Resolution Details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-10-30 | Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-09-14 | 2020-08-03 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/technology/trump-wechat-tiktok-china.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/28/technology/microsoft-tiktok-lobbying.html", "https://choice.npr.org/index.html?origin=https://www.npr.org/2020/08/27/906556399/tiktok-ceo-kevin-mayer-resigns-amid-trump-administrations-growing-pressure-on-ap", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/sep/14/tiktok-bytedance-to-partner-with-oracle-in-us-after-rejecting-microsoft-bid", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-deal-talks-are-snarled-over-fate-of-apps-algorithms-11598995674?mod=mhp", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/technology/oracle-tiktok-trump.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-drops-out-of-bidding-for-tiktoks-u-s-operations-11600039821", "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2020/09/13/microsoft-statement-on-tiktok/", "https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/14/21369753/bytedance-tiktok-trump-china-app-privacy-90-days", "https://www.cnet.com/news/tiktok-sale-hits-some-bumps-but-could-still-come-soon-report-says/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/aug/18/software-firm-oracle-in-talks-to-buy-tiktok-and-challenge-microsoft-bid", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/walmart-microsoft-stocks-fall-as-chinas-new-export-rules-throw-wrench-into-potential-deal-for-tiktok-2020-08-31", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/technology/china-tiktok-export-controls.html", "https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/2/21418496/tiktok-for-you-page-algorithm-deal-us-china-trump-microsoft", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2020/09/02/tiktok-us-deal-hits-roadblock-after-china-restricts-sale-of-ai-algorithms-reports-say/#65403f5133eb", "https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/31/china-export-rules-complicate-tiktok-sale", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/tiktok-deal-to-sell-us-business-could-be-announced-as-soon-as-tomorrow.html", "https://www.thestreet.com/investing/microsoft-edges-lower-amid-tiktok-sale-deadline-concerns", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/tiktok-sale-hits-snag-as-china-places-restrictions-on-tech-sales.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tiktok-bytedance-exclusive/exclusive-aspiring-tiktok-buyers-pursue-four-options-in-effort-to-revive-talks-sources-idUSKBN25T2IG", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/technology/tiktok-microsoft-oracle-bytedance.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/technology/tiktok-sues-us-government-over-trump-ban.html", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54143025", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/bytedance-us-government-talking-about-avoiding-full-sale-of-tiktok.html", "https://www.cnet.com/news/tiktok-sale-could-be-announced-tuesday-report-says/"] | binary | [["2020-08-05", 0.75], ["2020-08-05", 0.8], ["2020-08-05", 0.8], ["2020-08-05", 0.8], ["2020-08-05", 0.79], ["2020-08-05", 0.8083], ["2020-08-05", 0.7857], ["2020-08-05", 0.7875], ["2020-08-05", 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https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/62 | <p><b>Context. </b>On July 31, 2020, President Trump threatened to ban the app TikTok in the United States, citing security concerns. Two days later, <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2020/08/02/microsoft-to-continue-discussions-on-potential-tiktok-purchase-in-the-united-states/" target="_blank">Microsoft announced</a> that it had been in discussions with President Trump regarding purchasing TikTok service in the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is conducting a security review and would need to approve the purchase. Microsoft said it would pursue the deal over the next few weeks and will complete the discussions no later than September 15.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question will resolve based on an announcement by Microsoft that it has reached an agreement with TikTok and the U.S. government to purchase TikTok service in the United States.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-09-13 | Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-09-15 | 2020-08-21 | ["https://www.theverge.com/interface/2020/5/20/21263782/google-antitrust-case-attorneys-general-justice-partisan-politics", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/01/doj-antitrust-testimony-347749", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tech-google/u-s-justice-departments-google-lawsuit-expected-in-weeks-ahead-sources-idUSKBN25V04Z", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/google-antitrust-justice-department.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/internal-justice-department-dispute-arises-over-possible-google-antitrust-suit-11597700874", "https://www.npr.org/2020/06/20/881148365/geoffrey-berman-u-s-attorney-who-prosecuted-trump-allies-says-he-wont-quit", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/26/google-anti-trust-suit-341912", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/04/google-antitrust-doj-409291", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/technology/kamala-harris-ties-to-big-tech.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/silicon-valley-virus-era-dc-glow-147178", "https://news.bloomberglaw.com/tech-and-telecom-law/u-s-antitrust-case-against-google-zeroes-in-on-tying-products", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/google-antitrust-justice-department.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tech-antitrust-google-focus/u-s-and-states-google-antitrust-probe-nears-finish-line-idUSKBN23X1D7", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/google-antitrust-justice-department.html?smid=tw-share", "https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/internal-justice-department-dispute-arises-over-possible-google-antitrust-suit-11597700874", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-state-attorneys-general-likely-to-bring-antitrust-lawsuits-against-google-11589573622", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-27/u-s-antitrust-case-against-google-zeroes-in-on-tying-products", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/02/william-barr-attorney-general-trump-washington", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tech-google/u-s-justice-department-going-full-tilt-on-tech-antitrust-probe-official-idUSKCN259332", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/u-s-google-monopoly-case-could-hit-supreme-court-amex-hurdle", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-to-file-long-awaited-antitrust-suit-against-google-11603195203", "https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2020/07/08/As-Others-See-It-Attorney-General-William-Barr-Google-antitrust/stories/202007080022"] | binary | [["2020-08-21", 0.4], ["2020-08-21", 0.5], ["2020-08-21", 0.3333], ["2020-08-21", 0.3], ["2020-08-21", 0.26], ["2020-08-21", 0.2417], ["2020-08-21", 0.2357], ["2020-08-21", 0.2313], ["2020-08-21", 0.2167], ["2020-08-21", 0.2], ["2020-08-21", 0.1909], ["2020-08-21", 0.1792], ["2020-08-21", 0.1731], ["2020-08-21", 0.1643], ["2020-08-22", 0.1553], ["2020-08-22", 0.1663], 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</b>Attorney General William Barr <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/internal-justice-department-dispute-arises-over-possible-google-antitrust-suit-11597700874" target="_blank">recently stated</a> that he hopes to make a decision about whether to bring an antitrust lawsuit against Google by the end of summer. The Justice Department has been investigating whether Google violated U.S. antitrust laws for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/google-antitrust-justice-department.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article" target="_blank">over a year</a> and has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/26/google-anti-trust-suit-341912" target="_blank">reportedly</a> been close to filing a lawsuit since June. The lawsuit would be one of the largest U.S. antitrust lawsuits since the Justice Department and 20 states sued Microsoft in the 1990s. </p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on a U.S. court filing or official announcement by the Justice Department. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. </p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-09-15 | Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-10-20 | 2020-09-15 | ["https://www.ft.com/content/7325dcea-e327-4054-9b24-7a12a6a2cac6", "https://www.tomshardware.com/news/us-moves-to-strangle-chinese-chipmaker-smic-with-new-sanctions", "https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/lists-of-parties-of-concern/entity-list", "https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54056941", "https://www.theburnin.com/industry/smic-requests-huawei-trade-license-update-2020-09-16/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-china-smic/chip-group-to-warn-the-trump-admin-against-blacklisting-chinas-smic-document-idINL1N2GD206", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/US-determined-to-halt-China-s-chip-game-plan-with-SMIC-sanctions", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sets-export-controls-on-chinas-top-chip-maker-11601118353", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/US-determined-to-halt-China-s-chip-game-plan-with-SMIC-sanctions", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-26/u-s-government-sanctions-chinese-chipmaker-smic-ft-reports", "https://www.asiapacificnews.net/news/266524240/us-imposes-restrictions-on-exports-to-chinas-top-chipmaker", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/05/us-considers-blacklisting-chinas-largest-chipmaker-as-tech-tensions-escalate.html", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/China-s-SMIC-stockpiles-chip-equipment-to-counter-US-restrictions", "https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-china-smic-idINL1N2GD206", "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/09/22/2020-18515/addition-of-entities-to-the-entity-list-corrections-to-certain-existing-entries-on-the-entity-list", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/09/26/us-restricts-exports-chinas-smic/", "https://www.xataka.com/empresas-y-economia/estados-unidos-veta-al-mayor-fabricante-chips-china-impacto-podria-ser-mayor-que-veto-a-huawei", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/3998", "https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/07/tech/smic-stock-us-sanctions-hnk-intl/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/technology/trump-china-smic-blacklist.html", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/3905", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3617594-lam-research-kla-shares-drop-after-smics-u-s-ban", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/3941", "https://es.reuters.com/article/eeuu-china-smic-idESKBN26H0MD", "https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3100428/explainer-asml-huawei-and-qualcomm-may-be-caught-crossfire-smic"] | binary | [["2020-09-16", 0.4], ["2020-09-16", 0.45], ["2020-09-16", 0.4], ["2020-09-16", 0.3025], ["2020-09-16", 0.292], ["2020-09-16", 0.3767], ["2020-09-16", 0.3729], ["2020-09-16", 0.4188], ["2020-09-16", 0.4], ["2020-09-16", 0.3778], ["2020-09-17", 0.42], ["2020-09-17", 0.4136], ["2020-09-17", 0.4208], ["2020-09-17", 0.4138], ["2020-09-17", 0.42], ["2020-09-17", 0.3987], ["2020-09-17", 0.3956], ["2020-09-17", 0.3782], ["2020-09-18", 0.36], ["2020-09-18", 0.3294], ["2020-09-18", 0.3267], ["2020-09-18", 0.3279], ["2020-09-18", 0.3415], ["2020-09-18", 0.3324], ["2020-09-18", 0.3319], ["2020-09-18", 0.3464], ["2020-09-18", 0.3459], ["2020-09-18", 0.3439], ["2020-09-18", 0.3379], ["2020-09-18", 0.3484], ["2020-09-18", 0.3465], ["2020-09-18", 0.3522], ["2020-09-18", 0.3504], ["2020-09-18", 0.3538], ["2020-09-18", 0.352], ["2020-09-18", 0.3487], ["2020-09-18", 0.355], ["2020-09-18", 0.3473], ["2020-09-18", 0.3459], ["2020-09-18", 0.346], ["2020-09-19", 0.3503], ["2020-09-19", 0.3489], ["2020-09-20", 0.3397], ["2020-09-20", 0.3358], ["2020-09-20", 0.3272], ["2020-09-20", 0.325], ["2020-09-20", 0.3256], ["2020-09-20", 0.3234], ["2020-09-20", 0.3186], ["2020-09-21", 0.3147], ["2020-09-21", 0.3091], ["2020-09-21", 0.3068], ["2020-09-21", 0.3034], ["2020-09-21", 0.3011], ["2020-09-21", 0.2982], ["2020-09-21", 0.298], ["2020-09-22", 0.2957], ["2020-09-22", 0.2955], ["2020-09-22", 0.29], ["2020-09-23", 0.2858], ["2020-09-23", 0.2856], ["2020-09-23", 0.2815], ["2020-09-23", 0.2781], ["2020-09-23", 0.2733], ["2020-09-23", 0.2698], ["2020-09-24", 0.2678], ["2020-09-24", 0.2669], ["2020-09-24", 0.2649], ["2020-09-24", 0.2626], ["2020-09-25", 0.2576], ["2020-09-25", 0.2576], ["2020-09-25", 0.2561], ["2020-09-25", 0.2575], ["2020-09-25", 0.2243], ["2020-09-26", 0.2365], ["2020-09-26", 0.2297], ["2020-09-26", 0.2365], ["2020-09-26", 0.223], ["2020-09-26", 0.2176], ["2020-09-26", 0.2158], ["2020-09-26", 0.2141], ["2020-09-26", 0.2146], ["2020-09-26", 0.2056], ["2020-09-27", 0.204], ["2020-09-27", 0.1973], ["2020-09-27", 0.196], ["2020-09-27", 0.195], ["2020-09-27", 0.195], ["2020-09-27", 0.1963], ["2020-09-27", 0.1915], ["2020-09-27", 0.1929], ["2020-09-27", 0.206], ["2020-09-27", 0.2048], ["2020-09-27", 0.2163], ["2020-09-28", 0.214], ["2020-09-28", 0.2109], ["2020-09-28", 0.2095], ["2020-09-28", 0.205], ["2020-09-28", 0.205], ["2020-09-28", 0.2045], ["2020-09-28", 0.2102], ["2020-09-28", 0.2255], ["2020-09-28", 0.226], ["2020-09-29", 0.236], ["2020-09-29", 0.2393], ["2020-09-29", 0.226], ["2020-09-29", 0.2222], ["2020-09-30", 0.2374], ["2020-09-30", 0.233], ["2020-09-30", 0.2283], ["2020-10-01", 0.2444], ["2020-10-01", 0.2392], ["2020-10-01", 0.2369], ["2020-10-01", 0.2356], ["2020-10-01", 0.2344], ["2020-10-01", 0.2333], ["2020-10-01", 0.2335], ["2020-10-02", 0.2288], ["2020-10-02", 0.2267], ["2020-10-02", 0.2257], ["2020-10-02", 0.2255], ["2020-10-03", 0.2251], ["2020-10-03", 0.222], ["2020-10-04", 0.2206], ["2020-10-04", 0.2206], ["2020-10-05", 0.2206], ["2020-10-06", 0.22], ["2020-10-07", 0.219], ["2020-10-07", 0.2174], ["2020-10-08", 0.2139], ["2020-10-08", 0.2135], ["2020-10-08", 0.2131], ["2020-10-08", 0.2125], ["2020-10-09", 0.2108], ["2020-10-09", 0.2067], ["2020-10-09", 0.2019], ["2020-10-10", 0.2017], ["2020-10-10", 0.2015], ["2020-10-10", 0.1977], ["2020-10-11", 0.1941], ["2020-10-11", 0.1939], ["2020-10-11", 0.1904], ["2020-10-11", 0.1813], ["2020-10-11", 0.1758], ["2020-10-12", 0.1753], ["2020-10-12", 0.1751], ["2020-10-12", 0.1744], ["2020-10-12", 0.1725], ["2020-10-12", 0.1724], ["2020-10-12", 0.1724], ["2020-10-12", 0.1722], ["2020-10-12", 0.1698], ["2020-10-12", 0.168], ["2020-10-12", 0.168], ["2020-10-12", 0.1671], ["2020-10-12", 0.1669], ["2020-10-12", 0.1605], ["2020-10-12", 0.16], ["2020-10-12", 0.1593], ["2020-10-12", 0.158], ["2020-10-13", 0.1567], ["2020-10-13", 0.1565], ["2020-10-13", 0.1543], ["2020-10-13", 0.1529], ["2020-10-13", 0.1529], ["2020-10-14", 0.1616], ["2020-10-14", 0.1782], ["2020-10-14", 0.189], ["2020-10-14", 0.1855], ["2020-10-14", 0.1855], ["2020-10-15", 0.185], ["2020-10-15", 0.1839], ["2020-10-15", 0.1839]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/70 | <p><b>Context. </b>Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is China’s leading chip manufacturer. In early September, a Department of Defense representative <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-smic-exclusive/exclusive-trump-administration-weighs-blacklisting-chinas-chipmaker-smic-idUSKBN25V2VR" target="_blank">stated</a> the Trump Administration was considering whether to add SMIC to the Commerce Department’s <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/tags/entity-list" target="_blank">Entity List</a>, which would force U.S. companies to obtain a license before they export to SMIC. Companies most impacted by the Entity Listing would be U.S. chip manufacturing equipment producers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA. The Entity List has become a commonly used tool in the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. </p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on whether the <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/21/2019-10616/addition-of-entities-to-the-entity-list" target="_blank">Federal Register</a> includes the addition to the Entity List.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-10-15 | Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-09-23 | ["https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1201425.shtml", "https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/china-releases-details-its-own-unreliable-entity-list", "https://apnews.com/article/technology-hong-kong-business-data-privacy-china-9a0361fc401787b0618782d1ab639229", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/21/china-releases-details-on-unreliable-entity-list-raising-uncertainty-for-foreign-businesses.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/china-releases-details-on-unreliable-entity-list-raising-uncertainty-for-foreign-businesses.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-attack-on-unreliable-entities-is-a-double-edged-sword-for-beijing-11600767713", "https://apnews.com/9a0361fc401787b0618782d1ab639229", "https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/asia/us-china-military-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3102203/beijing-says-firms-unreliable-entities-list-will-be-banned"] | binary | [["2020-09-23", 0.8], ["2020-09-23", 0.525], ["2020-09-23", 0.6833], ["2020-09-23", 0.575], ["2020-09-24", 0.54], ["2020-09-24", 0.4583], ["2020-09-24", 0.4429], ["2020-09-24", 0.4], ["2020-09-24", 0.4389], ["2020-09-24", 0.428], ["2020-09-25", 0.3918], ["2020-09-25", 0.3867], ["2020-09-25", 0.3646], ["2020-09-25", 0.3457], ["2020-09-25", 0.3327], ["2020-09-25", 0.3181], ["2020-09-25", 0.32], ["2020-09-26", 0.3133], ["2020-09-26", 0.3126], ["2020-09-26", 0.3295], ["2020-09-26", 0.3214], ["2020-09-26", 0.3182], ["2020-09-27", 0.2676], ["2020-09-27", 0.2583], ["2020-09-27", 0.2526], ["2020-09-27", 0.2463], ["2020-09-27", 0.271], ["2020-09-27", 0.286], ["2020-09-27", 0.2935], ["2020-09-27", 0.3033], ["2020-09-27", 0.3055], ["2020-09-27", 0.3086], ["2020-09-28", 0.2957], ["2020-09-28", 0.2917], ["2020-09-28", 0.3179], ["2020-09-28", 0.3154], ["2020-09-28", 0.3188], ["2020-09-29", 0.3142], ["2020-09-29", 0.3015], ["2020-09-29", 0.3012], ["2020-09-29", 0.2937], ["2020-09-29", 0.2857], ["2020-09-29", 0.2783], ["2020-09-30", 0.3059], ["2020-09-30", 0.3062], ["2020-09-30", 0.2977], ["2020-09-30", 0.2929], ["2020-09-30", 0.291], ["2020-09-30", 0.2819], ["2020-09-30", 0.2976], ["2020-09-30", 0.3112], ["2020-10-01", 0.3021], ["2020-10-01", 0.3015], ["2020-10-01", 0.3186], ["2020-10-01", 0.3157], ["2020-10-01", 0.3075], ["2020-10-01", 0.2997], ["2020-10-01", 0.2984], ["2020-10-01", 0.2908], ["2020-10-02", 0.2858], ["2020-10-02", 0.2855], ["2020-10-02", 0.2785], ["2020-10-02", 0.2782], ["2020-10-02", 0.2795], ["2020-10-02", 0.2738], ["2020-10-02", 0.2683], ["2020-10-03", 0.2631], ["2020-10-04", 0.2576], ["2020-10-04", 0.2557], ["2020-10-04", 0.2552], ["2020-10-04", 0.2516], ["2020-10-04", 0.2514], ["2020-10-04", 0.2521], ["2020-10-04", 0.2516], ["2020-10-04", 0.247], ["2020-10-05", 0.2468], ["2020-10-06", 0.2443], ["2020-10-06", 0.2341], ["2020-10-07", 0.2289], ["2020-10-07", 0.2269], ["2020-10-08", 0.223], ["2020-10-08", 0.2209], ["2020-10-09", 0.2187], ["2020-10-10", 0.2183], ["2020-10-10", 0.2176], ["2020-10-10", 0.2168], ["2020-10-11", 0.2144], ["2020-10-11", 0.214], ["2020-10-11", 0.2133], ["2020-10-12", 0.2279], ["2020-10-12", 0.2127], ["2020-10-12", 0.2044], ["2020-10-13", 0.2035], ["2020-10-14", 0.2178], ["2020-10-14", 0.2178], ["2020-10-14", 0.2176], ["2020-10-14", 0.2155], ["2020-10-15", 0.2132], ["2020-10-15", 0.2058], ["2020-10-15", 0.2058], ["2020-10-17", 0.2054], ["2020-10-18", 0.2052], ["2020-10-18", 0.2044], ["2020-10-18", 0.2042], ["2020-10-18", 0.2178], ["2020-10-19", 0.2161], ["2020-10-19", 0.2138], ["2020-10-19", 0.2052], ["2020-10-19", 0.2052], ["2020-10-19", 0.2183], ["2020-10-20", 0.2152], ["2020-10-21", 0.215], ["2020-10-21", 0.2124], ["2020-10-21", 0.206], ["2020-10-21", 0.2027], ["2020-10-21", 0.2012], ["2020-10-21", 0.2012], ["2020-10-21", 0.1981], ["2020-10-21", 0.1974], ["2020-10-21", 0.186], ["2020-10-21", 0.1851], ["2020-10-21", 0.1826], ["2020-10-22", 0.1798], ["2020-10-22", 0.1754], ["2020-10-22", 0.1727], ["2020-10-22", 0.1731], ["2020-10-22", 0.1698], ["2020-10-22", 0.1679], ["2020-10-22", 0.1673], ["2020-10-23", 0.1681], ["2020-10-25", 0.1679], ["2020-10-25", 0.1674], ["2020-10-25", 0.1673], ["2020-10-25", 0.1666], ["2020-10-25", 0.164], ["2020-10-26", 0.1643], ["2020-10-26", 0.1627], ["2020-10-26", 0.1633], ["2020-10-26", 0.163], ["2020-10-26", 0.1697], ["2020-10-27", 0.1688], ["2020-10-27", 0.1708], ["2020-10-27", 0.1689], ["2020-10-27", 0.1679], ["2020-10-27", 0.1676], ["2020-10-27", 0.1669], ["2020-10-27", 0.1644], ["2020-10-27", 0.1512], ["2020-10-27", 0.151], ["2020-10-27", 0.1503], ["2020-10-27", 0.1496], ["2020-10-28", 0.1496], ["2020-10-28", 0.1574], ["2020-10-28", 0.1461], ["2020-10-28", 0.1554], ["2020-10-28", 0.1546], ["2020-10-28", 0.1483], ["2020-10-28", 0.149], ["2020-10-28", 0.149]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/75 | <p><b>Context.</b> On September 19, the People’s Republic of China Ministry of Commerce released the <a href="http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/policyrelease/questions/202009/20200903002580.shtml" target="_blank">provisions</a> of an “Unreliable Entity List” that would restrict the ability of listed companies to conduct trade or investment with China. Listed company employees would also be restricted from entering or residing in China. According to state media outlet the <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1201374.shtml" target="_blank">Global Times</a>, listed entities might include U.S. companies such as Apple, Cisco or Qualcomm. Reporting by the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-leaders-split-over-releasing-blacklist-of-u-s-companies-11600708688?" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a> indicates that Chinese leadership is divided over whether to implement the entity list before the U.S. election in November.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details.</b> This question resolves based on popular media sources. A company is a "U.S. company" if the United States is its principal place of business. </p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-10-28 | Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020? | cset | 0 |
2021-07-01 | 2020-10-07 | ["https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/weaponizing-belt-and-road-initiative", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/09/china-belt-and-road-initiative-mess-not-master-plan/", "https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/philippines-backs-vietnam-china-sinks-fishing-boat-70037606", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-s-coast-guard-allowed-to-fire-on-foreign-ships-under-new-law?mc_cid=d7693645a0&mc_eid=d7342736f9", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-05-06/coming-post-covid-anarchy", "https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3112866/south-china-sea-expect-more-same-us-president-joe-biden", "https://www.straight.com/news/khalid-zaka-a-summary-of-south-china-sea-conflict", "https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/12/south-china-sea-us-ghosts-strategic-tensions/617380/", "https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Philippines-Could-Start-Oil-Drilling-In-South-China-Sea-Without-China.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/world/asia/china-us-warships-south-china-sea.html", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3108723/draft-law-gives-china-coastguard-teeth-destroy-foreign?utm_source=dailybrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyBrief2020Nov6&utm_term=DailyNewsBrief", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1356330/south-china-sea-news-Philippines-china-oil-exploration-gas-military-latest-ont", "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FsfnDfADftGDYeG4c/outside-view-as-conversation-halter", "https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/world/asia/missiles-south-china-sea.html", "https://www.cfr.org/timeline/chinas-maritime-disputes", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4838/will-there-be-deadly-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea-in-2020/"] | binary | [["2020-10-09", 0.15], ["2020-10-09", 0.325], ["2020-10-09", 0.35], ["2020-10-09", 0.265], ["2020-10-09", 0.222], ["2020-10-09", 0.1967], ["2020-10-09", 0.1729], ["2020-10-09", 0.1525], ["2020-10-10", 0.2244], ["2020-10-10", 0.212], 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["2020-12-18", 0.1211], ["2020-12-18", 0.1201], ["2020-12-18", 0.115], ["2020-12-19", 0.1136], ["2020-12-19", 0.1133], ["2020-12-19", 0.1118], ["2020-12-20", 0.1108], ["2020-12-21", 0.1119], ["2020-12-21", 0.1112], ["2020-12-21", 0.1079], ["2020-12-25", 0.1074], ["2020-12-26", 0.1076], ["2020-12-26", 0.1076], ["2020-12-26", 0.1095], ["2020-12-28", 0.1094], ["2020-12-28", 0.1092], ["2020-12-28", 0.1068], ["2020-12-29", 0.1061], ["2020-12-29", 0.1061], ["2020-12-30", 0.1054], ["2020-12-30", 0.1051], ["2021-01-01", 0.1051]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/85 | <p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><b>Related question. </b>This question was previously issued for Summer 2020. You can view those forecasts <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/28-will-there-be-an-incident-in-the-south-china-sea-in-which-the-chinese-military-fires-upon-a-civil-or-military-vessel-belonging-to-another-nation-by-september-30-2020" target="_blank">here</a>. <br></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area. </span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.</span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">***</span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">This question is a metric for the following scenarios:</span></span></span></p><ul>
<li style="line-height: 1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/three_worlds" target="_blank">Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today</a></span></span></span></li>
<li style="line-height: 1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/isolated-china" target="_blank">An Isolated China in a Globalized World</a></span></span></span></li>
</ul><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. </i><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: futura-pt;font-size: 16pt;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;white-space: pre-wrap;background-color: transparent;"><br></span></span></span></span></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? | cset | 0 |
2022-01-04 | 2020-11-30 | ["https://archive.is/aHt6T", "https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-biden-khamenei-hope-to-sign-nuclear-deal-before-iran-s-june-presidential-election-1.9852012", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/us/politics/biden-iran-nuclear-negotiations.html", "https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/461524/No-plans-for-another-round-of-Vienna-talks-Russia-says", "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-moving-key-oil-etfs-2021-05-27", "https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/052421-iran-starts-to-store-more-barrels-at-sea-ahead-of-potential-sanctions-relief", "https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-nuclear-deal-talks-feasible/", "https://www.livemint.com/news/world/iran-nuclear-deal-tehran-world-powers-resume-final-round-of-talks-11622374373694.html", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57229775", "https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-int/iran-says-iaea-access-to-nuclear-sites-images-has-ended-but-extension-possible-idUSKCN2D4034", "https://oldfashionedconfusion.com/forecasting/2021-iran-deal", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-progress-made-nuclear-talks-issues-remain-2021-05-31/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blinken-on-iran-if-tehran-returns-to-compliance-with-deal-wed-do-the-same/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-18/major-progress-on-iran-nuclear-deal-expected-tomorrow-bbc-says", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/14086", "https://iranintl.com/en/world/optimism-vienna-caution-tehran-iran-nuclear-talks-continue", "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33865.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/06/world/europe/iran-nuclear-deal.html", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/19/agreement-on-restoring-irans-nuclear-deal-within", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/khameneis-election-agenda-may-slow-revival-iran-nuclear-deal-2021-05-24/", "https://twitter.com/Amb_Ulyanov/status/1398962620963639296?s=20", "https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-iran-nuclear-pact-revival-at-risk-after-delays-to-new-inspection-deal/ar-AAKizJf", "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/iran-official-no-stronger-longer-deal-with-us-669185", "https://twitter.com/Amb_Ulyanov/status/1398954374295134217?s=19", "https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2021/05/30/2512591/russia-s-envoy-foresees-showdown-in-jcpoa-talks"] | binary | [["2020-12-02", 0.005], ["2020-12-02", 0.0575], ["2020-12-02", 0.2467], ["2020-12-02", 0.2538], ["2020-12-02", 0.358], ["2020-12-02", 0.4125], ["2020-12-02", 0.45], ["2020-12-02", 0.4419], ["2020-12-03", 0.4629], ["2020-12-03", 0.5], ["2020-12-03", 0.4842], ["2020-12-03", 0.5071], ["2020-12-04", 0.4957], ["2020-12-04", 0.514], ["2020-12-04", 0.5278], ["2020-12-05", 0.5172], ["2020-12-05", 0.5207], 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0.5129], ["2021-05-28", 0.5169], ["2021-05-29", 0.5176], ["2021-05-29", 0.5178], ["2021-05-29", 0.5169], ["2021-05-30", 0.5176], ["2021-05-30", 0.5178], ["2021-05-30", 0.5186], ["2021-05-30", 0.5186], ["2021-05-30", 0.5191], ["2021-05-31", 0.518], ["2021-05-31", 0.5213], ["2021-05-31", 0.5215], ["2021-05-31", 0.5215], ["2021-05-31", 0.5242], ["2021-05-31", 0.524], ["2021-05-31", 0.5253], ["2021-06-01", 0.5213], ["2021-06-01", 0.5213], ["2021-06-01", 0.5213]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/99 | <p><b>Context. </b>In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in <a href="https://www.undocs.org/S/RES/2231(2015)" target="_blank">Resolution 2231</a>, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">announced it would withdraw</a> from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/ceasing-u-s-participation-jcpoa-taking-additional-action-counter-irans-malign-influence-deny-iran-paths-nuclear-weapon/" target="_blank">Presidential Memorandum</a> and <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/13846.pdf" target="_blank">Executive Order 13846</a>).</p><p>On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> stated</a> that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">similarly stated</a> that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."</p><p>Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-administration-iran-sanctions-january-3951f776-09c9-4e55-b0f5-4a9c80e9e974.html" target="_blank">reportedly</a> "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.</p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. </p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-06-01 | Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? | cset | 0 |
2022-02-08 | 2020-12-22 | ["https://www.ft.com/content/76828bc9-e64f-446e-b03a-5f34df195bfa", "https://www.theinformation.com/articles/china-antitrust-officials-delay-review-of-nvidias-40-billion-arm-acquisition", "https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/nvidia-slash-arm-merger-inquiry", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/15799", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/07/24/brussels-delays-nvidia-sale-force-arm-consider-float/", "https://www.tomshardware.com/news/ec-could-delay-nvidia-arm-transaction-approval", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-k-considers-blocking-nvidia-154848795.html", "https://www.iflr.com/article/b1qxjdbpgyf24l/mampa-report-2021-china", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/softbank-plans-to-take-arm-public-after-nvidia-takeover-deal-collapses.html", "https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/19/uk-govt-triggers-national-security-scrutiny-of-nvidia-arm-deal/", "https://theconversation.com/nvidias-us-40-billion-deal-to-buy-arm-is-all-but-dead-its-a-classic-example-of-geopolitics-killing-innovation-154999", "https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/17/nvidias-arm-acquisition-is-facing-regulatory-hurdl/", "https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/10/why-chip-cos-support-or-oppose-nvidia-arm-buyout/", "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/11/nvidia-acquisition-of-arm-now-under-scrutiny-by-ftc/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-27/nvidia-s-planned-arm-takeover-gets-boost-from-chip-giants", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/qualcomm-offers-to-invest-in-arm-as-regulators-threaten-nvidia-deal.html", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/20305", "https://www.ashurst.com/en/news-and-insights/legal-updates/quickguide-uk-merger-control-phase-2-references/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/u-k-considers-blocking-nvidia-s-takeover-of-arm-over-security", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/nvidia-is-said-to-quietly-prepare-to-abandon-takeover-of-arm", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/10547", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/19394", "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3138976/nvidias-arm-takeover-gets-support-chip-giants-broadcom-mediatek-and", "https://www.arm.com/blogs/blueprint/arm-nvidia", "https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/business/nvidia-and-the-40bn-acquisition-of-arm-will-the-uk-governm-9212090/"] | binary | [["2020-12-23", 0.3], ["2020-12-23", 0.375], ["2020-12-23", 0.2833], ["2020-12-23", 0.2125], ["2020-12-23", 0.24], ["2020-12-23", 0.3], ["2020-12-23", 0.3357], ["2020-12-23", 0.3063], ["2020-12-23", 0.3333], ["2020-12-23", 0.345], ["2020-12-24", 0.3682], ["2020-12-24", 0.375], ["2020-12-24", 0.3831], ["2020-12-26", 0.3736], ["2020-12-26", 0.3513], ["2020-12-26", 0.3787], ["2020-12-27", 0.4255], ["2020-12-27", 0.44], ["2020-12-27", 0.4446], ["2020-12-27", 0.4546], ["2020-12-27", 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target="_blank">announced</a> an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/nvidias-arm-acquisition-could-be-targeted-by-chinese-regulators.html" target="_blank">reports</a> that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/nvidias-arm-acquisition-could-be-targeted-by-chinese-regulators.html" target="_blank">states</a> that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."</p><p>The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/12/22/nvidias-40bn-arm-takeover-faces-us-competition-investigation/" target="_blank">Federal Trade Commission's audit </a>of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai/" target="_blank">stated</a> that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. </p><p><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-08-17 | Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? | cset | 0 |
2022-01-04 | 2021-02-22 | ["https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/chinese-fishing-vessels-moored-at-whitsun-reef-disperse-to-nearby-areas", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/13732", "https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/07/china/us-senators-taiwan-china-reaction-intl-mic-hnk/index.html", "http://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/13732", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_South_China_Sea_dispute", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/14290", "https://www.ft.com/content/f68c3fdf-5f3b-4cd3-9fcf-03b7a19ea7ee", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-asean-agree-avoid-provocations-south-china-sea-2021-06-08/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYRCTHj7k8Y", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/23/china-authorises-coast-guard-to-fire-on-foreign-vessels-if", "https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/chinas-coast-guard-can-fire-foreign-vessels-complicating-security-south-sea", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/06/16/asia-pacific/china-taiwan-us-communist-party/", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coastguard-law/china-authorises-coast-guard-to-fire-on-foreign-vessels-if-needed-idUSKBN29R1ER", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-fires-opening-salvo-at-Biden-making-coast-guard-quasi-military", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/chinas-new-coast-guard-law-and-implications-maritime-security-east-and-south-china-seas", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/15355", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/15248", "https://www.cfr.org/timeline/chinas-maritime-disputes", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-taiwan-idUSKBN2BU1CV", "https://csis-ilab.github.io/cpower-viz/csis-china-sea/", "https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/02/china/xi-jinping-beijing-diplomacy-wolf-warriors-intl-mic-hnk/index.html", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3134781/china-rejected-lloyd-austins-phone-calls-after-us-defence", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-tells-fishermen-ignore-beijings-ban-fishing-south-china-sea-2021-05-05/", "https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive/www.cset-foretell.com/comments/13732"] | binary | [["2021-02-24", 0.27], ["2021-02-24", 0.435], ["2021-02-24", 0.29], ["2021-02-24", 0.2275], ["2021-02-24", 0.192], ["2021-02-24", 0.25], ["2021-02-24", 0.2286], ["2021-02-24", 0.325], ["2021-02-24", 0.3667], ["2021-02-24", 0.36], ["2021-02-24", 0.3409], ["2021-02-24", 0.3417], ["2021-02-24", 0.3385], ["2021-02-24", 0.3193], ["2021-02-24", 0.3113], ["2021-02-24", 0.3106], ["2021-02-24", 0.3453], ["2021-02-24", 0.3483], ["2021-02-25", 0.3511], ["2021-02-25", 0.3515], 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0.1373], ["2021-06-30", 0.1369], ["2021-06-30", 0.1366], ["2021-06-30", 0.137], ["2021-07-01", 0.1363], ["2021-07-01", 0.1358], ["2021-07-01", 0.1358], ["2021-07-01", 0.1358]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/113 | <p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><b>Related questions. </b>This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/85-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-january-1-and-june-30-2021-inclusive" target="_blank">here</a>. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results <a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/28-will-there-be-an-incident-in-the-south-china-sea-in-which-the-chinese-military-fires-upon-a-civil-or-military-vessel-belonging-to-another-nation-by-september-30-2020" target="_blank" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);">here</a>. </p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><b>Context. </b>The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/countering-chinas-actions-south-china-sea" target="_blank">rejected an international tribunal's ruling</a> that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas</span><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;">. These bases now include <a href="https://www.spatialsource.com.au/gis-data/satellite-images-reveal-completed-military-bases-spratly-islands" target="_blank">sophisticated facilities</a> meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/11/41017" target="_blank">tense encounters</a> between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also <a href="http://www.andrewerickson.com/2020/04/the-china-maritime-militia-bookshelf-latest-data-official-statements-my-fact-sheet-recommendations/" target="_blank">clashed</a> with foreign fishing vessels in the area. </span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><b>Data and resolution details. </b>This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. </span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;">***</span></span></span></p><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;">This question is a metric for the following scenarios:</span></span></span></p><ul>
<li style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/three_worlds" target="_blank">Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today</a></span></span></span></li>
<li style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><a href="https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/isolated-china" target="_blank">An Isolated China in a Globalized World</a></span></span></span></li>
</ul><p style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="vertical-align:baseline;"><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. </i><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:futura-pt;font-size:16pt;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent;"><br></span></span></span></span></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-39d23293-7fff-28d7-e91b-05fa7e59817b"></span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-07-01 | Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? | cset | 0 |
2023-01-10 | 2021-02-23 | ["https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/china-deciphering-the-beidaihe-meeting/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/28/china-protesters-west-support-deter-tiananmen/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/xi-s-swift-covid-retreat-shows-china-masses-they-have-real-power", "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-10-22/china-reaffirms-xis-dominance-removes-no-2-li-keqiang", "https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/new-faces-leaders-new-factional-dynamics-ccp-leadership-politics-following-20th-party-congress", "https://www.ft.com/content/16962134-c583-4315-a3dc-9cd11e0a88b0", "https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-s-xi-jinping-confirmed-as-leader-for-life-elevates-loyalists-20221023-p5bs53", "https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/how-chinas-party-congress-actually-works/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8533/xi-jinping-leading-china-in-2030/", "http://risingkashmir.com/xi-jinping-has-secured-a-third-term-as-chinas-leader-b434b4a4-b135-42f5-9397-d2ed75311732", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-what-this-wave-of-protests-means-for-the-future-of-the-chinese-communist-party/", "https://apnews.com/article/xi-jinping-china-government-and-politics-72edcad1926238890999ae59bfd70a2f", "https://www.thinkchina.sg/real-xi-reflections-20th-party-congress", "https://mort.soa.org/ViewTable.aspx?&TableIdentity=50001", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/22/world/china-xi-jinping-congress", "https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/11/what-to-expect-after-chinas-20th-national-congress", "https://www.insider.com/chinese-youth-lying-flat-wont-risk-lives-for-revolution-2022-12", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/22/china/china-party-congress-closing-day-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPOpTy8G-qc", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/china-s-xi-reemerges-in-public-after-likely-leaders-retreat", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/22/xi-jinping-tightens-grip-on-power-as-chinas-communist-party-elevates-his-status", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/23/xi-jinping-secures-historic-third-term-as-chinas-leader", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-21/for-2023-give-up-your-illusions-about-the-power-of-peaceful-protest", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future", "https://apnews.com/article/health-china-arrests-beijing-xi-jinping-1596604782d165d268d1dbc137034749"] | binary | [["2021-02-24", 0.875], ["2021-02-24", 0.8875], ["2021-02-24", 0.8242], ["2021-02-24", 0.8375], ["2021-02-25", 0.8275], ["2021-02-25", 0.8388], ["2021-02-25", 0.8457], ["2021-02-25", 0.86], ["2021-02-25", 0.8581], ["2021-02-25", 0.859], ["2021-02-25", 0.8614], ["2021-02-25", 0.8604], ["2021-02-25", 0.852], 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href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023" target="_blank">Predictit</a>.</p><p><b>Context. </b>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinese-communist-party" target="_blank">Chinese Communist Party</a> will elect a new 370-member <a href="https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-committee/" target="_blank">Central Committee</a> at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party" target="_blank">General Secretary</a> for the incoming five-year term.</p><p>The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.</p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping" target="_blank">Xi Jinping</a> became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.</p><p>But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/world/asia/china-communist-youth-league.html" target="_blank">crippled rival power centers</a> in the Party, elevated <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/the-ties-that-bind-xi-people-politburo/" target="_blank">close associates</a> to key leadership positions, <a href="https://merics.org/en/report/party-leads-everything" target="_blank">centralized policymaking authority</a> in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and <a href="https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/12/16/chinas-military-modernisation/" target="_blank">asserted unparalleled authority</a> over the armed forces and security services. </p><p>These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/" target="_blank">norm-defying third term</a> as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.</p><p>Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the <a href="https://www.prcleader.org/richard-mcgregor" target="_blank">backlash generated by policies</a> that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41007.pdf" target="_blank">win exemption</a> from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.</p><p><b>Resolution details</b>. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.</p><p>***</p><p>This question was contributed by <a href="https://twitter.com/neilthomas123" target="_blank">Neil Thomas </a>and <a href="https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc" target="_blank">Jordan Schneider</a>.</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | cset | 1 |
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"https://apnews.com/article/xi-jinping-china-government-and-politics-72edcad1926238890999ae59bfd70a2f", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/22/world/china-xi-jinping-congress", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/chinas-premier-li-keqiang-dropped-leadership-shuffle-rcna53543", "https://english.news.cn/20221022/d84c69f11b2a4b79a7f9b102462c6661/c.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/china-s-xi-reemerges-in-public-after-likely-leaders-retreat", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/six-ways-to-tell-if-xi-wins-or-loses-at-china-s-party-congress"] | binary | [["2021-03-18", 0.75], ["2021-03-18", 0.6775], ["2021-03-19", 0.585], ["2021-03-22", 0.5629], ["2021-03-23", 0.5822], ["2021-03-30", 0.639], ["2021-03-31", 0.574], ["2021-04-02", 0.585], ["2021-04-03", 0.5482], ["2021-04-06", 0.5567], ["2021-04-06", 0.53], ["2021-04-08", 0.5262], ["2021-04-09", 0.4986], ["2021-04-11", 0.5144], ["2021-04-14", 0.49], ["2021-04-15", 0.4972], ["2021-04-17", 0.4861], 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href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party" target="_blank">Politburo</a> of its ~370-member <a href="https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-committee/" target="_blank">Central Committee</a> at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_Standing_Committee_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party" target="_blank">Politburo Standing Committee</a> (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. </p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang" target="_blank">Li Keqiang</a> has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China" target="_blank">Premier of the State Council</a> since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping" target="_blank">Xi Jinping</a>, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.</p><p>During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/world/asia/china-communist-youth-league.html" target="_blank">now-weakened Communist Youth League</a> that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position. </p><p>Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41007.pdf" target="_blank">customary upper age bound </a>of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.</p><p>Xi is expected to secure a <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/" target="_blank">norm-defying third term</a> as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.</p><p><b>Resolution details.</b> This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. </p><p><i>***</i></p><p>This question was contributed by <a href="https://twitter.com/neilthomas123" target="_blank">Neil Thomas</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc" target="_blank">Jordan Schneider.</a></p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | cset | 0 |
2023-01-10 | 2021-03-16 | ["https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/china-deciphering-the-beidaihe-meeting/", "https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3185672/ccp-politburo/index.html", "https://qz.com/1113435/chinas-19th-party-congress-chen-miner-hu-chunhua-and-ding-xuexiang-could-succeed-xi-jinping-as-communist-party-chief", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/19th_Politburo_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party", "https://jamestown.org/program/the-20th-party-congress-xi-set-to-score-big-in-composition-of-next-leadership-corps/", "https://jamestown.org/program/the-eclipse-of-the-communist-youth-league-and-the-rise-of-the-zhejiang-clique/", "https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/ip22036-machine-learning-predictions-on-the-20th-politburo-standing-committee-of-the-communist-party-of-china/#.YzDOyi8RpQI", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/long-picked-promotion-xi-loyalist-chen-may-get-his-chance-2022-10-11/", 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["2022-12-20", 0.1055], ["2022-12-21", 0.104], ["2022-12-23", 0.1047], ["2022-12-25", 0.1013], ["2022-12-26", 0.0815], ["2022-12-26", 0.0816], ["2022-12-27", 0.0814], ["2022-12-27", 0.08], ["2022-12-28", 0.0694], ["2022-12-28", 0.0693], ["2022-12-29", 0.0691], ["2022-12-30", 0.0682], ["2022-12-30", 0.0683], ["2022-12-31", 0.0682], ["2023-01-01", 0.0609], ["2023-01-01", 0.0609]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/121 | <p><b>Context.</b> The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinese-communist-party" target="_blank">Chinese Communist Party</a> is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party" target="_blank">Politburo</a> of its ~370-member <a href="https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-committee/" target="_blank">Central Committee</a> at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_Standing_Committee_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party" target="_blank">Politburo Standing Committee</a> (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. </p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping" target="_blank">Xi Jinping</a>, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/" target="_blank">norm-defying third term</a> as General Secretary in 2022. But given the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41250273" target="_blank">opaque nature</a> of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/the-ties-that-bind-xi-people-politburo/" target="_blank">political allies</a> onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.</p><p>While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41007.pdf" target="_blank">20-year-old norm</a> that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/the-ties-that-bind-xi-people-politburo/" target="_blank">the current Politburo</a>.</p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Min%27er" target="_blank">Chen Min’er</a> is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/is-this-man-chinas-next-leader/" target="_blank">next generation</a> of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-successor-chen-miner.html" target="_blank">protégé of Xi</a> (who often promotes people he <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/the-ties-that-bind-xi-people-politburo/" target="_blank">knows personally</a>), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.</p><p><b>Resolution details.</b> This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. </p><p><i>***</i></p><p>This question was contributed by <a href="https://twitter.com/neilthomas123" target="_blank">Neil Thomas</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc" target="_blank">Jordan Schneider.</a></p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | cset | 0 |
2023-01-10 | 2021-03-16 | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBG2bD-TE9g&t=150s", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/former-chinese-president-hu-jintao-escorted-out-party-congress-2022-10-22/", "https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/china-deciphering-the-beidaihe-meeting/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/china-s-hu-was-tipped-to-rule-china-now-he-s-xi-unity-symbol", "https://qz.com/1113435/chinas-19th-party-congress-chen-miner-hu-chunhua-and-ding-xuexiang-could-succeed-xi-jinping-as-communist-party-chief", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/11/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/china-communist-party-reshuffle/", "https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/candidates-for-chinas-20th-politburo-standing-committee-and-politburo/", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3197001/chinas-hu-chunhua-loses-politburo-seat-raising-doubts-about-political-future", "https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3185751/ccp-connections/#target52", 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"https://english.news.cn/20221022/d84c69f11b2a4b79a7f9b102462c6661/c.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-likely-to-pack-party-leadership-with-allies-in-show-of-strength-11666024652", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-17/china-s-xi-reemerges-in-public-after-likely-leaders-retreat", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/six-ways-to-tell-if-xi-wins-or-loses-at-china-s-party-congress", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/china-sends-official-xi-sidelined-on-trip-to-protest-hit-iran"] | binary | [["2021-03-18", 0.825], ["2021-03-20", 0.6625], ["2021-03-21", 0.68], ["2021-03-21", 0.6929], ["2021-03-22", 0.6844], ["2021-03-25", 0.691], ["2021-03-30", 0.726], ["2021-03-31", 0.7009], ["2021-04-02", 0.6967], ["2021-04-02", 0.7008], ["2021-04-05", 0.698], ["2021-04-06", 0.7207], ["2021-04-07", 0.7088], ["2021-04-09", 0.6935], ["2021-04-12", 0.6789], ["2021-04-16", 0.6672], ["2021-04-17", 0.6728], ["2021-04-18", 0.6595], 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["2022-12-26", 0.042], ["2022-12-26", 0.0397], ["2022-12-27", 0.0396], ["2022-12-27", 0.039], ["2022-12-28", 0.0333], ["2022-12-29", 0.0332], ["2022-12-30", 0.0329], ["2022-12-31", 0.0328], ["2022-12-31", 0.0272], ["2022-12-31", 0.0268], ["2023-01-01", 0.0268]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/122 | <p><b>Related question. </b>This question is cross-posted on <a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023" target="_blank">Predictit</a>.</p><p><b>Context.</b> The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinese-communist-party" target="_blank">Chinese Communist Party</a> is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party" target="_blank">Politburo</a> of its ~370-member <a href="https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-committee/" target="_blank">Central Committee</a> at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politburo_Standing_Committee_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party" target="_blank">Politburo Standing Committee</a> (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. </p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping" target="_blank">Xi Jinping</a>, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/" target="_blank">norm-defying third term</a> as General Secretary in 2022. But given the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41250273" target="_blank">opaque nature</a> of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/the-ties-that-bind-xi-people-politburo/" target="_blank">political allies</a> onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.</p><p>While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41007.pdf" target="_blank">20-year-old norm</a> that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/the-ties-that-bind-xi-people-politburo/" target="_blank">the current Politburo</a>.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Chunhua" target="_blank">Hu Chunhua</a> has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. </p><p>But Xi’s personalized power and <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/the-ties-that-bind-xi-people-politburo/" target="_blank">preference for elevating</a> political allies has <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/who-will-be-chinas-next-premier/" target="_blank">cast doubt</a> on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/world/asia/china-communist-youth-league.html" target="_blank">Communist Youth League faction</a>. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.</p><p><b>Resolution details.</b> This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. </p><p><i>***</i></p><p>This question was contributed by <a href="https://twitter.com/neilthomas123" target="_blank">Neil Thomas</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc" target="_blank">Jordan Schneider.</a></p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | cset | 0 |
2022-01-04 | 2021-03-30 | ["https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3145648/are-cosier-china-cambodia-ties-sign-beijings-plan-set-military", "https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/China-Pacific%20Islands%20Staff%20Report.pdf>", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-china-uae-military-11637274224", "https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/159283/1/ib2019_9_zhang_chinese_aid_final.pdf&gt", "https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/a-future-chinese-indian-ocean-fleet/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/lloyd-austin-rodrigo-duterte-visiting-forces-agreement-philippines-china-11627938937", "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-bloodlessly-dominating-south-pacific-191724", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/08/13/the-chinese-navys-instant-helicopter-carrier-is-back-in-action/?sh=406629f84231", "https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/08/climate-covid-and-china-drive-us-pacific-islands-engagement", "https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2714190/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-holds-a-joint-press-conference-with-phi/", "https://www.solomontimes.com/news/sogavare-reiterates-commitment-to-ne-china-policy/10931&gt", "https://etd.ohiolink.edu/apexprod/rws_etd/send_file/send?accession=ucin1406821281&disposition=inline&gt", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/07/china-pla-military-bases-kiribati-uae-cambodia-tanzania-djibouti-indo-pacific-ports-airfields/", "https://warontherocks.com/2021/07/americas-strategy-in-oceania-time-for-a-better-approach/", "https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/people-s-liberation-army-eyes-new-military-bases-across-indo-pacific-121070900091_1.html", "https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/05/11/chinas-gray-zone-spreads-in-the-pacific-and-heads-to-the-atlantic/", "https://www.dailypost.vu/news/president-asks-us-for-military-base/article_baefa860-47ba-56eb-b003-97c7ea9c35ec.html?stream=top", "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33153", "https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/china-seeks-first-military-base-on-africas-atlantic-coast-u-s-intelligence-finds-11638726327", "https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/chinese-built-airport-next-door-australia-us-funded-navy-port>%E2%80%A6.whilst", "https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3138489/us-philippine-vfa-military-pact-limbo-until-duterte-leaves&gt", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-kiribati-exclusive-idUSKBN2CM0IZ", "https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/jul/13/china-begins-military-flights-disputed-south-china/", "https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/17118", "https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/monitor-chinas-expansion-attempts-in-south-pacific-japan-news"] | binary | [["2021-03-30", 0.15], ["2021-03-30", 0.125], ["2021-03-30", 0.15], ["2021-03-30", 0.15], ["2021-03-31", 0.16], ["2021-03-31", 0.2333], ["2021-03-31", 0.2286], ["2021-03-31", 0.2125], ["2021-03-31", 0.2333], 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0.1393], ["2021-08-24", 0.1389], ["2021-08-24", 0.1389], ["2021-08-24", 0.1427], ["2021-08-25", 0.142], ["2021-08-25", 0.133], ["2021-08-25", 0.133], ["2021-08-25", 0.1328], ["2021-08-26", 0.1328], ["2021-08-26", 0.1328], ["2021-08-26", 0.1328], ["2021-08-27", 0.1326], ["2021-08-27", 0.1326]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/126 | <p><b>Context<i>. </i></b>Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (<a href="https://eurasiantimes.com/chinese-military-base-in-pacific-near-australia/" target="_blank">Eurasian Times</a>). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence-vanuatu-base-explainer-idUSKBN1HH1B4" target="_blank">Reuters</a>), which China denied (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/10/concerns-china-in-talks-with-vanuatu-about-south-pacific-military-base" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p>The signing of an official agreement between one or more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area.</p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.</p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-08-27 | Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? | cset | 0 |
2021-07-01 | 2021-03-30 | ["https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224046.shtml", "https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/14/21/rodrigo-duterte-warning-china-kill-me-ships-west-philippine-sea", "https://www.esquiremag.ph/politics/news/china-backs-down-a00293-20210416-lfrm", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-07/china-taiwan-conflict-could-come-sooner-rather-than-later?sref=EP6bV7CS", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-s-Asia-policy/US-vows-to-approach-Taiwan-with-clarity-and-resolve", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/10/the-taiwanese-island-fortress-that-could-halt-a-chinese-invasion/?sh=265d185274f7", "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224124.shtml", "https://www.axios.com/chinas-centennial-international-relations-d84397ab-37d6-496c-8dc3-bf5de6ee40c4.html", "https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4197214", "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42784", 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"https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-may-shoot-down-chinese-drones-in-south-china-sea-2021-4", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-warship-again-sails-through-sensitive-taiwan-strait-2021-05-18/", "https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-air-force-warns-china-consequences-warplanes-intrude-1600700", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/China-military-flybys-near-Taiwan-plunge-after-US-Japan-statement"", "https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2021-05-01"] | binary | [["2021-03-30", 0.05], ["2021-03-30", 0.03], ["2021-03-30", 0.24], ["2021-03-30", 0.1767], ["2021-03-30", 0.135], ["2021-03-31", 0.132], ["2021-03-31", 0.1117], ["2021-03-31", 0.1314], ["2021-03-31", 0.1275], ["2021-03-31", 0.1189], ["2021-03-31", 0.127], ["2021-03-31", 0.1382], ["2021-03-31", 0.1267], ["2021-03-31", 0.1208], ["2021-03-31", 0.1264], ["2021-03-31", 0.118], ["2021-03-31", 0.1113], ["2021-03-31", 0.1059], ["2021-03-31", 0.1028], ["2021-04-01", 0.1079], 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["2021-06-11", 0.0422], ["2021-06-12", 0.042], ["2021-06-12", 0.0419], ["2021-06-12", 0.0418], ["2021-06-12", 0.0423], ["2021-06-13", 0.0422], ["2021-06-13", 0.0422], ["2021-06-14", 0.0423], ["2021-06-14", 0.0423], ["2021-06-14", 0.0422], ["2021-06-14", 0.0419], ["2021-06-14", 0.0417], ["2021-06-14", 0.0417], ["2021-06-15", 0.0417], ["2021-06-15", 0.0416], ["2021-06-15", 0.0416], ["2021-06-16", 0.0417], ["2021-06-16", 0.0416], ["2021-06-16", 0.0416], ["2021-06-17", 0.0416], ["2021-06-17", 0.0415], ["2021-06-17", 0.0415], ["2021-06-17", 0.0411], ["2021-06-17", 0.0417], ["2021-06-17", 0.0417], ["2021-06-18", 0.0416], ["2021-06-18", 0.0416], ["2021-06-19", 0.0416]] | https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/125 | <p><b>Context. </b>Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea" target="_blank">CFR</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54605976" target="_blank">BBC</a>). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (<a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-parliament-taiwan/china-drops-word-peaceful-in-latest-push-for-taiwan-reunification-idUKKBN22Y06Q" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/6/taiwan-says-military-under-pressure-from-china-as-missions-mount" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2020/08/pla-covid-diplomacy" target="_blank">IISS</a>) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (<a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa" target="_blank">Express</a>, <a href="https://forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). </p><p>In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (<a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_blank">Department of Defense</a>). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (<a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/08/05/2003741143" target="_blank">Taipei Times</a>). </p><p><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a> assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/chinas-military-incursions-around-taiwan-arent-a-sign-of-imminent-attack/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a> suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (<a href="https://amti.csis.org/itu-aba-island/" target="_blank">CSIS</a>). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). </p><p><b>Resolution details. </b>The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. </p><p>***</p><p><i>To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.</i></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2021-06-19 | Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? | cset | 0 |
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