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2017-01-05 | 2016-10-14 | ["http://qz.com/798092/a-self-driving-uber-car-went-the-wrong-way-on-a-one-way-street-in-pittsburgh/", "http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-google-waymo-self-driving-20161213-story.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/365412", "http://www.wtae.com/news/selfdriving-uber-involved-in-collision-downtown/42187584", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/14/ubers-self-driving-volvos-picking-up-sf-riders/95395838/", "http://fortune.com/2016/10/16/uber-pittsburgh-kalanick-peduto/", "https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/14/1386711/", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question1", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/14/uber-self-driving-cars-run-red-lights-san-francisco", "http://www.autoworldnews.com/articles/25027/20161228/uber-self-driving-car-tests-deemed-illegal-volvo-anything-unlawful.htm", "http://www.ocregister.com/articles/last-739542-complete-streets.html", "https://twitter.com/danigirl329/with_replies", "http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/18/12541672/uber-volvo-partnership-autonomous-self-driving-car", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/356893", "http://www.wtae.com/article/self-driving-uber-involved-in-collision-downtown/8059178", "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question3", "http://jalopnik.com/are-ubers-self-driving-cars-driving-like-asshats-around-1787451574", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/381570", "http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2016/12/19/435910.htm", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-ubers-new-self-driving-cars-in-pittsburgh-1473847202", "https://newsroom.uber.com/pittsburgh-self-driving-uber/", "http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-legislation.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/355778", "http://www.penndot.gov/TravelInPA/Safety/Documents/2014_CFB_linked.pdf"] | binary | [["2016-10-14", 0.82], ["2016-10-14", 0.5], ["2016-10-14", 0.66], ["2016-10-14", 0.075], 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Although there were some reports that Uber vehicle was involved in an accident in October (<a href = "http://www.wtae.com/news/selfdriving-uber-involved-in-collision-downtown/42187584"target = "_blank">WTAE Pittsburgh</a>), there was no evidence that there was a passenger in the car or that the vehicle was in autonomous mode. There are no indications of other accidents.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
In the first public test of self-driving cars in the US, Uber recently launched a program where the public can hail and ride in one of the company’s autonomous vehicles (<a href="https://newsroom.uber.com/pittsburgh-self-driving-uber/" target="_blank">Uber</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/technology/no-driver-bring-it-on-how-pittsburgh-became-ubers-testing-ground.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Each car has two Uber employees seated in the front seats who can take control when needed (<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/09/14/493823483/self-driving-cars-take-to-the-streets-of-pittsburgh-courtesy-of-uber" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/uber-s-self-driving-test-cars-to-be-overseen-by-driver-and-engineer/" target="_blank">Scientific American</a>). However, concerns remain about the safety of these cars at this initial stage of development, especially in light of the recent accidents involving a Tesla Model S (<a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/30/12072408/tesla-autopilot-car-crash-death-autonomous-model-s" target="_blank">The Verge</a>), and a Google self-driving car (<a href="http://qz.com/803122/googles-googl-self-driving-car-crash-on-september-23-landed-its-test-driver-in-the-hospital/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>). For this question to resolve as “yes”, an Uber self-driving car must physically contact another vehicle or object while driving autonomously. Malfunctions that do not result in an accident would not be sufficient to resolve the question (e.g. <a href="http://qz.com/798092/a-self-driving-uber-car-went-the-wrong-way-on-a-one-way-street-in-pittsburgh/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>).
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0.0], ["2017-05-31", 0.0], ["2017-06-01", 0.0], ["2017-06-02", 0.0], ["2017-06-03", 0.0], ["2017-06-04", 0.0], ["2017-06-05", 0.0], ["2017-06-05", 0.0], ["2017-06-06", 0.0], ["2017-06-07", 0.0], ["2017-06-07", 0.0], ["2017-06-09", 0.0], ["2017-06-09", 0.0], ["2017-06-10", 0.0], ["2017-06-11", 0.0], ["2017-06-12", 0.0], ["2017-06-13", 0.0], ["2017-06-15", 0.0], ["2017-06-16", 0.0], ["2017-06-17", 0.0], ["2017-06-18", 0.0], ["2017-06-18", 0.0], ["2017-06-20", 0.0], ["2017-06-21", 0.0], ["2017-06-22", 0.0], ["2017-06-22", 0.0], ["2017-06-23", 0.0], ["2017-06-24", 0.0], ["2017-06-25", 0.0], ["2017-06-26", 0.0], ["2017-06-26", 0.0], ["2017-06-27", 0.0], ["2017-06-27", 0.0], ["2017-06-28", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302 | The United States' current Syria policy calls for the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/26/us-policy-syria-refugees-assad-rebels" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/01/220605.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/04/g-7-leaders-statement-foreign-policy"target="_blank">The White House</a>, <a href="http://usgov.info/2016/09/26/daily-press-briefings-daily-press-briefing-september-26-2016/"target="_blank">US Government Information</a>), a position which puts them at odds with Russia (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23849587" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/08/middleeast/syria-aleppo-russia-strategy/" target="_blank">CNN</a>) and which has been questioned by a US presidential candidate (<a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/donald-trump-isis-defeating-islamic-state-not-assad-syria-part-proposed-presidential-2371781" target="_blank">International Business Times</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/18/opinions/donald-trump-syria-opposition-reaction/" target="_blank">CNN</a>). The endorsement of an agreement which only allows Assad to remain in power during a transition period will NOT suffice (e.g. <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2016/09/262445.htm" target="_blank">US Department of State</a>), but an agreement which allows Assad to compete in national elections would.
Recommended Questions
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/278" target="_blank">How many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017?</a>
To date, there is no evidence the US has endorsed a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will the US endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power? | gjopen | 0 |
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"http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/09/trump-appears-poised-dismantle-iran-nuclear-deal-170901052038435.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/iran-nuclear-inspections-double-under-deal-questioned-by-trump", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/iran-nuclear-deal-donald-trump-decertifies-agreement-2015-policy-obama-a7999451.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/us/politics/trump-iran-deal-nuclear.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/world/middleeast/mattis-iran-deal-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/589418", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/18/france-trump-iran-nuclear-deal-jean-yves-le-drian", "https://www.apnews.com/e726f1c5747b434a912a3a896d6a4fbe/Nuke-deal-hangs-in-balance-as-Trump-plans-Iran-policy-speech", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/trump-expected-move-iran-nuclear-deal-171013054108898.html", 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/303 | As part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was signed in July 2015, the US lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran's agreeing to freeze its nuclear program (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/17/world/middleeast/iran-sanctions-lifted-nuclear-deal.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/jcpoa_faqs.pdf" target="_blank">US Department of the Treasury FAQ</a>, <a href="http://www.cfr.org/iran/international-sanctions-iran/p20258" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/pages/iran.aspx" target="_blank">US Department of the Treasury Resource Center</a>). Congressional Republicans have called for repeal of the JCPOA and one presidential candidate has promised to reinstate sanctions (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/04/04/donald-trump-is-right-about-tearing-up-the-iran-deal-says-a-leading-iranian-hard-liner/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Reimposition of sanctions lifted as part of the JCPOA will count, as would new sanctions punishing Iran for activity related to a nuclear program, including violations of the JCPOA or the NPT more broadly. Sanctions imposed for unrelated issues (e.g. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/24/us-treasury-new-sanctions-iran-ballistic-missile-test" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>) will NOT count.
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"http://www.thefencepost.com/news/federal-reserve-banks-farmland-values-down/", "http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2017/01/17/trump-dollar-is-too-strong-and-its-killing-us/", "http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/", "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/publication-listing?filter_series=1"] | binary | [["2016-10-28", 0.6], ["2016-10-28", 0.55], ["2016-10-28", 0.0], ["2016-10-28", 0.025], ["2016-10-28", 0.08], ["2016-10-28", 0.08], ["2016-10-29", 0.225], ["2016-10-29", 0.46], ["2016-10-29", 0.25], ["2016-10-29", 0.3], ["2016-10-30", 0.3], ["2016-10-30", 0.325], ["2016-10-30", 0.3], ["2016-10-30", 0.35], ["2016-10-30", 0.375], ["2016-10-30", 0.375], ["2016-10-30", 0.4], ["2016-10-30", 0.425], ["2016-10-31", 0.4], ["2016-10-31", 0.425], ["2016-10-31", 0.425], ["2016-10-31", 0.4], ["2016-10-31", 0.36], ["2016-11-01", 0.355], ["2016-11-01", 0.245], ["2016-11-02", 0.25], ["2016-11-02", 0.25], ["2016-11-04", 0.235], ["2016-11-04", 0.25], ["2016-11-07", 0.25], ["2016-11-07", 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["2017-03-26", 0.11], ["2017-03-27", 0.1], ["2017-03-27", 0.1], ["2017-03-28", 0.1], ["2017-03-28", 0.1], ["2017-03-28", 0.1], ["2017-03-28", 0.1], ["2017-03-28", 0.1], ["2017-03-29", 0.1], ["2017-03-29", 0.1], ["2017-03-29", 0.1], ["2017-03-30", 0.1], ["2017-03-30", 0.1], ["2017-03-30", 0.1], ["2017-03-30", 0.095], ["2017-03-30", 0.095], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/307 | Read about Superforecasting for the farm at <i><a href="http://www.agriculture.com/news/technology/superforecasting-for-the-farm" target="_blank">Successful Farming</a></i>.
Falling commodity prices have prompted a decline in the value of agricultural land (<a href="http://www.agriculture.com/content/what-you-need-to-know-about-farmland-values" target="_blank">Agriculture.com</a>, <a href="http://www.croplife.com/management/report-u-s-farmland-values-on-average-continue-gradual-decline/" target="_blank">CropLife</a>). The Seventh Federal Reserve District, which includes all of Iowa and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin (<a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/utilities/about-us/seventh-district-economy" target="_blank">Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago</a>), saw farmland values decline by 4% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. This question will be resolved by data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (<a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/index" target="_blank">Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago</a>). Changes in land values are reported in the quarterly newsletter and recorded in their historical data as "Seventh District Land Values." Question will be suspended on 31 March 2017 and closed when the data for the first quarter of 2017 are released, typically in May.
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<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162" target="_blank">Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?</a>
This question was closed as "no" with end date of 31 March 2017 (<a href = "https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/agletter/2015-2019/may-2017"target="_blank">Chicago Fed</a>).
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<hr> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-03-31 | Will farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-18 | 2016-11-01 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-iran/iran-says-majority-of-opec-members-support-extending-oil-output-cuts-idUSKBN1DK0X2", "https://ycharts.com/indicators/iran_crude_oil_production", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/asia-oil-appec-iran/iran-says-to-keep-crude-condensate-exports-at-around-2-6-mln-bpd-in-2017-idUKL4N1M62IQ", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20October%202017.pdf", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/opec-oil/table-opec-oil-output-rises-by-50000-bpd-in-september-reuters-survey-idUKL8N1MA38C", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-oil-exports/iran-crude-exports-hit-five-year-high-near-pre-sanctions-levels-source-idUSKCN11M0XL", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/71020/irans-first-ipc-based-oil-tender-to-be-finalized-in-8-months", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC%20MOMR%20November%202017.pdf", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/opec-oil/table-opec-oil-output-falls-by-300000-bpd-in-november-reuters-survey-idUKL8N1O433T", "https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/washington/trump-criticizes-iran-deal-as-oil-sanctions-waivers-21956723", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-24/iran-says-opec-action-on-output-cuts-must-address-libya-nigeria", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-iran-oil/iran-pushes-to-retain-asia-oil-buyers-as-possible-u-s-sanctions-loom-idUSKBN1DR0JS", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/73176/irans-south-azadegan-output-at-83000-bpd", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/71018/irans-kharg-daily-oil-exports-at-21m-barrels", "http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Forget-OPEC-China-Controls-Oil-Prices.html", "http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20September%202017.pdf", "http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/411541/Iranian-oil-output-to-exceed-3-9m-bpd-in-Feb-Zanganeh", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/turkey-energy-russia-iran-idUKL8N1L13IZ", "https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/tehran/iran-russia-turkey-sign-energy-cooperation-deal-21582179", "https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/70448/south-pars-oil-output-exceeds-25m-barrels", "https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/analysis-iranian-oil-flows-gain-further-ground-26801813", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/opec-oil/table-opec-oil-output-falls-by-170000-bpd-in-august-reuters-survey-idUKL8N1LH3OE", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/reuters-america-table-opec-oil-output-falls-by-80000-bpd-in-october--reuters-survey.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-appec-iran/low-stocks-growth-in-domestic-demand-to-cap-iran-oil-exports-nioc-idUSKCN1C00JV"] | binary | [["2016-11-01", 0.09], ["2016-11-01", 0.18], ["2016-11-01", 0.28], ["2016-11-02", 0.6], ["2016-11-02", 0.61], ["2016-11-02", 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0.01], ["2017-11-21", 0.01], ["2017-11-22", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-25", 0.01], ["2017-11-27", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-07", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-11", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-17", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.005], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/308 | Since sanctions were lifted in early 2016, Iran has sharply increased its oil production (<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/16/investing/iran-pumping-lots-more-oil-sanctions/" target="_blank">CNN Money</a>), and the country is aiming to hit a rate of 4 million barrels per day in the near future (<a href="http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/28/477367/Iran-to-raise-oil-output-to-new-highs-soon" target="_blank">PressTV</a>). Question will be resolved using monthly data for "Iran, I.R." reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply: OPEC Crude Oil Production" section of <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm" target="_blank">OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. In the <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20October%202016.pdf" target="_blank">October 2016 report</a>, the relevant data can be found in Table 5.6 on page 62. That report shows Iran producing an estimated 3.665 million barrels per day in September of 2016. If the question has not already resolved, it will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and closed when the December data are released, typically in January.
Recommended Questions
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/277" target="_blank">Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?</a>
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/303" target="_blank">Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?</a>
<sub>
<hr>
Iran's monthly oil production did not exceed 4 million barrels per day in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will Iran's monthly oil production exceed 4 million barrels per day? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-04-03 | 2016-11-01 | ["https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends/letter-nic-chairman", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-arms-idUSKBN14G12Y", "https://www.ft.com/content/e5625674-0ee6-11e7-b030-768954394623", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3956384/Turkey-calls-US-allies-reconsider-Syria-no-fly-zone.html#ixzz4QfYtyygs", "http://aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-warplanes-strike-targets-in-syria/773658", "http://www.limacharlienews.com/mena/syria-russian-airforce-pounds-daraa/", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-syria-safe-zones_us_5889175ae4b0024605fd95fb", "https://www.salon.com/2017/01/18/congresswoman-gabbard-makes-unannounced-trip-to-syria/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/offensive-targets-rebels-aleppo-outskirts-161224140539925.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKBN14D0JA", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/isis-is-on-the-offensive-and-may-have-just-picked-up-a-surface-to-air-missile-system/ar-AAlwfcD?ocid=HPCDHP", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-raqqa-idUSKBN15J0CZ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-safezones-idUSKBN15B0E5", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-war-latest-russia-sends-12-more-warplanes-to-syria-despite-announcing-military-withdrawal-a7524351.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-syria-safezones-idUSKBN1592O8?il=0", "http://tass.com/defense/931297", "http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/08/us/politics/russia-turkey-syria-airstrikes-isis.html?_r=0", "https://www.dni.gov/index.php", "https://www.ihs.com/Info/0916/janes-defense-conflict-atlas.html", "https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-release/engel-royce-syria-sanctions-bill-passes-house/", "http://reason.com/blog/2016/12/19/trump-calls-for-safe-zones-in-syria", 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["2017-03-23", 0.0], ["2017-03-23", 0.0], ["2017-03-23", 0.0], ["2017-03-23", 0.0], ["2017-03-24", 0.0], ["2017-03-24", 0.0], ["2017-03-24", 0.0], ["2017-03-25", 0.0], ["2017-03-25", 0.0], ["2017-03-26", 0.0], ["2017-03-26", 0.0], ["2017-03-26", 0.0], ["2017-03-26", 0.0], ["2017-03-26", 0.0], ["2017-03-27", 0.0], ["2017-03-27", 0.0], ["2017-03-27", 0.0], ["2017-03-27", 0.0], ["2017-03-28", 0.0], ["2017-03-28", 0.0], ["2017-03-28", 0.0], ["2017-03-28", 0.0], ["2017-03-29", 0.0], ["2017-03-29", 0.0], ["2017-03-29", 0.0], ["2017-03-29", 0.0], ["2017-03-30", 0.0], ["2017-03-30", 0.0], ["2017-03-30", 0.0], ["2017-03-30", 0.0], ["2017-03-30", 0.0], ["2017-03-30", 0.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/309 | In August 2016, Turkey launched a significant military offensive in Syria (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-24/turkey-coalition-begin-strike-against-islamic-state-in-jarablus" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>), and Turkish president Erdogan has reportedly asked NATO to support the operation by helping establish a no-fly zone over the territory this offensive aimed to capture (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-rebel-idUSKCN11C1FJ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23141a24-743d-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a.html" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>).
Recommended Questions
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<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 March 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-03-31 | Before 1 April 2017, will any NATO member other than Turkey announce the establishment of a no-fly zone over any part of Syria? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-12-12 | 2016-11-04 | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Birth_of_a_Nation", "http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/film/the-birth-of-a-nation-film-review-don-t-fall-for-saint-nate-a3416431.html", "http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/golden-globes-film-nominations-2017/sort/recent/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/395582", "http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/critics-choice-awards-2016-film-nomination-complete-list-951822", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38291774", "http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-nominations-2017/picture/"] | binary | [["2016-11-04", 0.6], ["2016-11-04", 0.65], ["2016-11-04", 0.325], ["2016-11-04", 0.375], ["2016-11-04", 0.775], ["2016-11-04", 0.75], ["2016-11-04", 0.75], ["2016-11-04", 0.775], ["2016-11-05", 0.8], ["2016-11-05", 0.8], ["2016-11-05", 0.85], ["2016-11-05", 0.86], ["2016-11-05", 0.865], ["2016-11-05", 0.865], ["2016-11-05", 0.88], ["2016-11-06", 0.88], ["2016-11-06", 0.88], ["2016-11-06", 0.9], ["2016-11-06", 0.9], ["2016-11-06", 0.9], ["2016-11-06", 0.925], ["2016-11-07", 0.875], ["2016-11-07", 0.875], ["2016-11-07", 0.925], ["2016-11-07", 0.95], ["2016-11-07", 0.95], ["2016-11-07", 0.95], ["2016-11-07", 0.95], ["2016-11-07", 0.95], ["2016-11-08", 0.925], ["2016-11-08", 0.875], ["2016-11-08", 0.875], ["2016-11-09", 0.875], ["2016-11-09", 0.875], ["2016-11-09", 0.875], ["2016-11-09", 0.85], ["2016-11-10", 0.85], ["2016-11-10", 0.775], ["2016-11-10", 0.675], ["2016-11-10", 0.675], ["2016-11-10", 0.675], ["2016-11-10", 0.675], ["2016-11-10", 0.675], ["2016-11-11", 0.67], ["2016-11-11", 0.65], ["2016-11-11", 0.65], ["2016-11-11", 0.69], ["2016-11-11", 0.69], ["2016-11-11", 0.69], ["2016-11-11", 0.67], ["2016-11-11", 0.67], ["2016-11-12", 0.695], ["2016-11-12", 0.695], ["2016-11-12", 0.695], ["2016-11-12", 0.695], ["2016-11-13", 0.695], ["2016-11-13", 0.695], ["2016-11-13", 0.7], ["2016-11-13", 0.7], ["2016-11-14", 0.7], ["2016-11-14", 0.7], ["2016-11-14", 0.72], ["2016-11-14", 0.695], ["2016-11-14", 0.695], ["2016-11-15", 0.695], ["2016-11-15", 0.695], ["2016-11-15", 0.695], ["2016-11-16", 0.695], ["2016-11-16", 0.695], ["2016-11-17", 0.695], ["2016-11-18", 0.695], ["2016-11-18", 0.67], ["2016-11-19", 0.67], ["2016-11-19", 0.695], ["2016-11-19", 0.695], ["2016-11-20", 0.7], ["2016-11-21", 0.7], ["2016-11-21", 0.7], ["2016-11-21", 0.695], ["2016-11-22", 0.695], ["2016-11-22", 0.695], ["2016-11-22", 0.695], ["2016-11-22", 0.725], ["2016-11-22", 0.725], ["2016-11-23", 0.725], ["2016-11-23", 0.725], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-24", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.655], ["2016-11-26", 0.655], ["2016-11-27", 0.655], ["2016-11-28", 0.655], ["2016-11-28", 0.56], ["2016-11-28", 0.56], ["2016-11-28", 0.73], ["2016-11-29", 0.73], ["2016-11-29", 0.685], ["2016-11-30", 0.685], ["2016-11-30", 0.74], ["2016-11-30", 0.74], ["2016-12-01", 0.685], ["2016-12-01", 0.65], ["2016-12-01", 0.65], ["2016-12-01", 0.65], ["2016-12-01", 0.65], ["2016-12-02", 0.64], ["2016-12-02", 0.64], ["2016-12-02", 0.64], ["2016-12-02", 0.64], ["2016-12-02", 0.645], ["2016-12-03", 0.69], ["2016-12-03", 0.69], ["2016-12-03", 0.69], ["2016-12-03", 0.69], ["2016-12-03", 0.73], ["2016-12-03", 0.65], ["2016-12-04", 0.645], ["2016-12-04", 0.645], ["2016-12-04", 0.645], ["2016-12-04", 0.645], ["2016-12-04", 0.685], ["2016-12-04", 0.65], ["2016-12-04", 0.65], ["2016-12-05", 0.64], ["2016-12-05", 0.61], ["2016-12-05", 0.515], ["2016-12-05", 0.515], ["2016-12-05", 0.515], ["2016-12-05", 0.515], ["2016-12-05", 0.58], ["2016-12-05", 0.59], ["2016-12-06", 0.585], ["2016-12-06", 0.585], ["2016-12-06", 0.6], ["2016-12-06", 0.585], ["2016-12-06", 0.6], ["2016-12-06", 0.6], ["2016-12-06", 0.6], ["2016-12-07", 0.59], ["2016-12-07", 0.58], ["2016-12-07", 0.58], ["2016-12-07", 0.55], ["2016-12-07", 0.55], ["2016-12-07", 0.55], ["2016-12-07", 0.55], ["2016-12-08", 0.5], ["2016-12-08", 0.5], ["2016-12-08", 0.415], ["2016-12-09", 0.415], ["2016-12-09", 0.45], ["2016-12-09", 0.45], ["2016-12-09", 0.45], ["2016-12-09", 0.5], ["2016-12-10", 0.5], ["2016-12-10", 0.45], ["2016-12-10", 0.45], ["2016-12-11", 0.45], ["2016-12-11", 0.45], ["2016-12-11", 0.45]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/344 | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 11 December 2016. Birth of Nation was not nominated for "Best Motion Picture". <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2017-nominees-winners-list-20161212-story.html" target = "_blank">(LA Times)</a>
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
<i>The Birth of a Nation</i> tells the story of Nat Turner, who led an uprising of slaves in Virginia in 1831 (<a href="http://www.foxsearchlight.com/thebirthofanation/" target="_blank">Fox Searchlight Pictures</a>, <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_birth_of_a_nation_2016/" target="_blank">Rotten Tomatoes</a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4196450/" target="_blank">IMDb</a>). Nominations for the 74th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be announced on 12 December 2016 at 8:00am EST (<a href="http://www.goldenglobes.com/award-rules%E2%80%A2entry-forms" target="_blank">Golden Globe Awards</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification (344)" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/295" target="_blank">whether the book "Superforecasting" will be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017</a>.</sub>
| Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-12-11 | Will The Birth of a Nation be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-11-16 | 2016-11-08 | ["http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/future-of-colombias-new-peace-deal-with-farc-rests-with-no-campaign/article32847123/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/02/colombias-peace-deal-with-farc-risks-dragging-it-further-down-th/", "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21710152-will-second-attempt-fare-better-first-colombia-and-farc-strike-new-peace", "https://soundcloud.com/latinpulse/special-cuban-perspective-derailing-peace-colombia-lp11122016", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/colombia-peace-sides-signing-accord-43500076", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-colombia-peace-idUKKBN13A1Y3?il=0", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/colombia/article114862333.html", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/12/world/colombia-farc-peace/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-12/colombia-reaches-new-final-peace-agreement-with-farc-rebels", "http://colombiareports.com/un-resumes-colombia-ceasefire-verification-reduced-mandate/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/opinion/colombias-revised-peace-accord.html?emc=edit_ee_20161115&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=70183565&_r=0", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/columbia-farc-amend-peace-deal/", "https://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1023/826195-colombia-farc-peace-talks/", "http://colombiareports.com/colombias-political-parties-less-popular-farc-guerrillas-gallup/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/colombians-vote-on-historic-peace-agreement-with-farc-rebels/2016/10/02/8ef1a2a2-84b4-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-colombia-peace-idUKKBN1370PZ", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37686287", "http://colombiapeace.org/", "http://colombiareports.com/colombia-government-closes-door-peace-deal-opposition/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/29/colombia-farc-peace-by-christmas-juan-manuel-santos", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/379849", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/colombias-peace-maker-and-his-country-on-edge-ahead-of-crucial-sunday-vote/2016/10/01/271f5db6-8718-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html", "http://generacionpaz.co/content/pese-tensiones-en-la-habana-el-nuevo-acuerdo-sigue-adelante", "http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/11/07/government-and-farc-claim-progress-in-talks-on-new-peace-deal/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/colombia-government-eln-rebels-launch-peace-talks-october-003708953.html"] | binary | [["2016-11-08", 0.85], ["2016-11-08", 0.8], ["2016-11-08", 0.85], ["2016-11-08", 0.8], ["2016-11-08", 0.375], ["2016-11-08", 0.15], ["2016-11-08", 0.18], ["2016-11-08", 0.25], ["2016-11-08", 0.275], ["2016-11-08", 0.215], ["2016-11-08", 0.2], ["2016-11-08", 0.15], ["2016-11-09", 0.15], ["2016-11-09", 0.3], ["2016-11-09", 0.1], ["2016-11-09", 0.025], ["2016-11-09", 0.05], ["2016-11-09", 0.05], ["2016-11-09", 0.08], ["2016-11-09", 0.08], ["2016-11-09", 0.265], ["2016-11-09", 0.265], ["2016-11-09", 0.39], ["2016-11-09", 0.735], ["2016-11-10", 0.7], ["2016-11-10", 0.7], ["2016-11-10", 0.7], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.6], ["2016-11-10", 0.5], ["2016-11-10", 0.4], ["2016-11-10", 0.4], ["2016-11-10", 0.325], ["2016-11-10", 0.325], ["2016-11-10", 0.375], ["2016-11-10", 0.3], ["2016-11-11", 0.35], ["2016-11-11", 0.35], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.35], ["2016-11-11", 0.375], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-11", 0.4], ["2016-11-12", 0.4], ["2016-11-12", 0.4], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.375], ["2016-11-12", 0.45], ["2016-11-12", 0.45], ["2016-11-12", 0.45], ["2016-11-12", 0.505], ["2016-11-12", 0.495], ["2016-11-13", 0.49], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.5], ["2016-11-13", 0.55], ["2016-11-13", 0.55], ["2016-11-13", 0.6], ["2016-11-13", 0.575], ["2016-11-13", 0.735], ["2016-11-13", 0.86], ["2016-11-13", 0.885], ["2016-11-13", 0.905], ["2016-11-13", 0.905], ["2016-11-13", 0.9], ["2016-11-13", 0.9], ["2016-11-13", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/345 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 13 November 2016. The government of Columbia and the FARC reached an agreement on a new peace deal on 13 November 2016 (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37965392" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/12/world/colombia-farc-peace/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/12/501863434/colombia-farc-rebels-announce-a-new-peace-deal" target="_blank">NPR</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
On 2 October 2016 the Colombian people voted to reject a peace accord between Colombia and the FARC (<a href="https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/no-wins-colombians-narrowly-rejects-peace-accord-with-farc/14639" target="_blank">The City Paper Bogota</a>). Since the referendum rejection, both sides have said they will return to negotiations, and President Santos has said he'd like to see a deal by the end of the year (<a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/can-colombia-rework-farc-deal-without-jeopardizing-peace/" target="_blank">PBS NewsHour</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/colombia-farc-ceasefire-peace-talks-nobel-prize-1.3795764" target="_blank">CBC News</a>). Renegotiation requires that Colombia and the FARC agree on the terms of a peace agreement. Ratification is not required. However, interim agreements on specific topics (e.g. <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33017258" target="_blank">BBC</a>) will NOT resolve this question.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/298" target="_blank">whether Yemen's Houthi rebels will sign a peace agreement</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/302" target="_blank">whether the US will endorse a peace plan that allows Bashar al-Assad to remain in power</a>.</sub> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-11-13 | Will the government of Colombia and the FARC renegotiate a peace agreement before 1 March 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-07-24 | 2016-11-08 | ["http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/saudi-arabia-seeking-8bn-loan-plug-fiscal-deficit-1548606", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/236-before-1-july-2017-will-scotland-set-a-date-for-another-referendum-on-independence-from-the-united-kingdom", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/u-s-discloses-saudi-arabia-s-treasuries-holdings-for-first-time", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-central-banks-are-stockpiling-foreign-reserves-1488914148", "http://www.newsweek.com/911-lawsuit-saudi-bin-laden-583984", "https://www.intelligenceonline.com/grey-areas/2017/06/07/how-washington-allowed-the-anti-qatar-offensive-to-come-into-being%2C108248698-ART?utm_source=INT&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PROS_EDIT_ART&did=108132865&eid=268585", "http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt", "http://imgur.com/gallery/JNv8a", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2016/11/15/Despite-JASTA-Saudi-US-investments-enjoy-immunity-.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities-idUSKBN13B2XG", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trumps-impending-bans-on-refugees-and-immigrants-triggers-fears-globally/2017/01/26/c698e67e-e33d-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html", "http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/foreign-exchange-reserves", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-king-leads-hundreds-of-princes-clerics-military-officials-on-asia-trip-1488197009", "http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=18m", "http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/South-Korea/Reserves/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBWcRqPesws", "https://www.theasset.com/capital-markets/32903/china-saudi-arabia-increase-us-treasury-holdings", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/u-s-is-hiding-treasury-bond-data-that-s-suddenly-become-crucial", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-led-bounce-for-oil-prices-starts-to-dissolve-2016-12-05", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/saudis-china-dump-treasuries-foreign-central-banks-liquidate-record-375-billion-us-p", "http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2016/10/03/saudi-government-budget-cuts-prove-basic-income-is-no-solution-to-slow-economic-growth/#b783ab9760d1", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/05/19/522494/Saudis-turn-to-Trump-for-investments", "http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/shlptab1.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/346-will-saudi-arabia-s-holdings-of-us-treasury-securities-dip-below-50-billion-before-1-june-2017?challenge_id=12", "http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-finance-minister-very-optimistic-on-2016-budget-gap-652471.html"] | binary | [["2016-11-08", 0.0], ["2016-11-08", 0.45], ["2016-11-08", 0.75], ["2016-11-08", 0.155], ["2016-11-08", 0.02], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], ["2016-11-09", 0.19], ["2016-11-09", 0.18], ["2016-11-10", 0.18], ["2016-11-10", 0.16], ["2016-11-10", 0.17], ["2016-11-10", 0.225], ["2016-11-10", 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["2017-05-31", 0.0], ["2017-06-01", 0.0], ["2017-06-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/346 | Saudi Arabia warned of economic fallout from the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which Congress passed over the president's veto on September 28, 2016 (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-warns-ofeconomic-fallout-if-congress-passes-9-11-bill.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/09/29/saudi-arabia-may-still-fight-back-against-911-lawsuit-bill/" target="_blank">Salon</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/27/senate-poised-to-vote-to-override-obamas-veto-of-911-bill/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). The treasury holdings of foreign countries, including Saudi Arabia, are tracked by the Department of Treasury on a monthly basis: <a href="http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt" target="_blank">US Department of the Treasury</a>. The government of Saudi Arabia held $93 billion in Treasury holdings in August 2016. If the question has not already resolved, it will be suspended on 31 May 2017 and closed when the May data are released, typically in mid July.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/294" target="_blank">whether Russia will allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/200" target="_blank">whether Saudi Arabia will list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018</a>.</sub>
</br>
According to the <a href = "http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt"target="_blank">Treasury International Capital</a>, Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities never dipped below $50 billion. This question has been closed a "b) No" with a closing date of 31 May 2017. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-06-01 | Will Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities dip below $50 billion before 1 June 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2016-11-15 | ["http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-attempting-to-block-new-saarc-chief-pakistan-daily/articleshow/56918968.cms", "https://tribune.com.pk/story/1464468/pakistan-highlight-cpec-benefits-saarc-meeting/", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/beheading-of-two-indian-soldiers-india-pakistan-dgmos-speak-over-hotline/articleshow/58474152.cms", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indias-policy-to-isolate-pakistan-a-fools-errand-maleeha-lodhi/articleshow/57960412.cms", "https://www.adb.org/documents/sasec-operational-plan-2016-2025", "http://www.livemint.com/Industry/JjeP6L78JroOEkQu1xD0XP/Interconnected-power-market-a-clear-win-for-South-Asia-ADB.html", "http://nation.com.pk/national/27-Mar-2017/pakistan-should-pay-785-mn-for-south-asian-university-saarc-members", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/If-SAARC-fails-theres-BIMSTEC-India-warns-Pakistan/articleshow/55545978.cms", "http://saarc-sec.org/calendar", "http://www.dawn.com/news/1311965/indias-objection-to-a-pakistani-secretary-general-may-hurt-saarc", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indias-ceasefire-violations-pose-potential-threat-pakistan-army/articleshow/57044395.cms", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-may-not-engage-pakistan-in-near-future/articleshow/57474564.cms", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1327109/india-to-invite-pakistan-to-saarc-seminar", "http://pakobserver.net/indian-hegemony-over-saarc/", "http://www.saarc-sec.org/2017/02/01/news/53rd-Session-of-the-Programming-Committee-1-2-February-2017/161/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-pakistan-water-idUSKBN16N03E?il=0", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-to-host-first-ever-bimstec-nsa-meet-to-discuss-counter-terror-action-plan/articleshow/57022769.cms", "http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/09/23/can-india-take-the-lead-on-bimstec/", "http://www.thedailystar.net/backpage/bimstec-power-deal-finalised-1360417", "http://currentaffairs.gktoday.in/tags/saarc", "http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2017/mar/10/pakistan-needs-to-walk-away-from-terrorism-for-any-government-level-talks-india-1579699.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_SAARC_summit", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-saarc-countries-pull-up-pakistan-ask-it-to-pay-up-7-85-mn-for-south-asian-university/articleshow/57845181.cms", "http://www.sify.com/news/pakistan-sri-lanka-urge-end-to-saarc-stalemate-news-others-rcjmamahahdji.html", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pak-continues-to-violate-ceasefire-supports-infiltration-govt/articleshow/57630388.cms"] | binary | [["2016-11-15", 0.375], ["2016-11-15", 0.175], ["2016-11-15", 0.23], ["2016-11-16", 0.4], ["2016-11-16", 0.4], ["2016-11-16", 0.4], ["2016-11-16", 0.39], ["2016-11-17", 0.3], ["2016-11-17", 0.24], ["2016-11-17", 0.23], ["2016-11-18", 0.235], 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["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/350 | Both countries must attend the same summit to resolve this question. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation is an intergovernmental group made up of the countries of South Asia (<a href="http://saarc-sec.org/" target="_blank">SAARC</a>). India recently said it will boycott the SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Pakistan this month (<a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/after-boycott-by-india-and-others-saarc-summit-likely-to-be-called-off/" target="_blank">The Indian Express</a>). This influenced other countries in South Asia to boycott as well (<a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/saarc-summit-sri-lanka-india-pakistan-uri-3067152/" target="_blank">The Indian Express</a>).
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<hr>
India and Pakistan did not both attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will India and Pakistan both attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit before 1 January 2018? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-03-29 | 2016-11-15 | ["http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2188618-analysis-behind-the-xi-jinping-leung-chun-ying-meeting-at-apec/?utm_expid=21082672-18.dmPUWQm0QDq0pZBHW0FDfA.0&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fduckduckgo.com%2F", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/world/asia/hong-kong-cy-leung-reelection.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38260448", "http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2053402/embattled-hong-kong-leader-cy-leung-wont-seek-re-election", "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hong_Kong_Chief_Executive_election,_2017&oldid=751780555#Opinion_polling", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/12/09/breaking-hong-kong-chief-executive-leung-chun-ying-will-not-seek-re-election-in-march/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Chief_Executive_election,_2017#Opinion_polling", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/11/04/cy-leung-would-beat-pro-beijing-lawmaker-regina-ip-in-hong-kong-leadership-election-says-cuhk-poll/", "https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/english/report/pai2016_hk01/content/freq.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/09/hong-kong-leader-leung-chun-ying-to-step-down-next-year", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/12/09/almost-70-hongkongers-oppose-re-election-cy-leung-democratic-party-poll-suggests/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/hks-chief-executive-rewarded-with-new-post", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-election-economy-idUSKBN16V0CT?il=0", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/11/02/financial-sec-john-tsang-denies-rumour-beijing-discouraged-running-chief-exec/", "https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/11/21/pres-xi-jinping-fully-endorses-hong-kong-govts-handling-of-oath-taking-row-cy-leung-says/", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/hong-kong-leader-cy-leung-says-will-not-run-again/3355058.html", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/hong-kong-leader-leung-chun-ying-says-will-not-run-for-re-election-4419028/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/hong-kongs-leung-chun-ying-gets-re-election-boost", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-election-idUSKBN16W0WF?il=0", "http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/2054236/uncertainty-prevails-hong-kong-after-leung-chun-ying-decides-not-seek", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-leader-c-y-leung-wont-seek-re-election-1481272374", "http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2045879/cy-leung-faces-uphill-poll-battle-fewer-set-back-him-hong", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/opinion/beijing-tightens-its-grip-in-hong-kong-again.html?emc=edit_ee_20161114&nl=todaysheadlines-europe&nlid=70183565&_r=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-politics-idUSKBN13Y0NA"] | binary | [["2016-11-15", 0.265], ["2016-11-15", 0.18], ["2016-11-15", 0.445], ["2016-11-16", 0.25], ["2016-11-16", 0.24], ["2016-11-16", 0.1], ["2016-11-16", 0.125], ["2016-11-17", 0.15], ["2016-11-18", 0.195], ["2016-11-18", 0.25], ["2016-11-19", 0.29], 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["2017-03-13", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.045], ["2017-03-16", 0.05], ["2017-03-16", 0.05], ["2017-03-17", 0.045], ["2017-03-17", 0.04], ["2017-03-17", 0.04], ["2017-03-18", 0.03], ["2017-03-19", 0.03], ["2017-03-19", 0.03], ["2017-03-19", 0.03], ["2017-03-20", 0.03], ["2017-03-20", 0.025], ["2017-03-21", 0.02], ["2017-03-21", 0.02], ["2017-03-22", 0.02], ["2017-03-22", 0.02], ["2017-03-23", 0.02], ["2017-03-23", 0.02], ["2017-03-24", 0.02], ["2017-03-24", 0.02], ["2017-03-25", 0.02], ["2017-03-25", 0.02], ["2017-03-26", 0.02], ["2017-03-26", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/349 | Leung Chun-ying, the incumbent, is unpopular among democrats and "localists." The Hong Kong chief executive election will be held on 26 March 2017 (<a href="http://www.scmp.com/topics/hong-kong-chief-executive-election-2017" target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.
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This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 26 March 2017. Carrie Lam was elected as Hong Kong's Chief executive on Sunday 26 March 2017 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39396146"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-selection-not-an-election-pro-beijing-committee-picks-loyalist-to-lead-hong-kong/2017/03/26/93c5292a-1055-11e7-b2bb-417e331877d9_story.html?utm_term=.c7617443ff99"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-03-26 | Will Leung Chun-ying win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-12-04 | 2016-11-15 | ["https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/27/south-sudans-man-made-famine/", "http://www.dw.com/en/south-sudan-president-sacks-central-bank-chief/a-37136702", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article60976", "http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/23/world/africa/23sudan.html?_r=1", "http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/world/africa/31arab.html?fta=y", "http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-lost-hopes-for-south-sudan", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61564", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/south-sudan-seeks-arms-embargo-security-council-161118074141598.html", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61556", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/south-sudan-kiir-vist-khartoum-discuss-borders-171101091618664.html", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/sudan.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index", "http://www.usip.org/publications/2014/01/09/the-conflict-in-south-sudan-the-political-context", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/423645", "https://www.irinnews.org/opinion/2016/11/25/genocidal-logic-south-sudan%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cgun-class%E2%80%9D", "http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/world/africa/04bashir.html?scp=8&sq=&st=nyt", "http://mgafrica.com/article/2017-01-16-the-failure-of-forced-peace-south-sudans-apprehensive-future/", "http://www.southsudannewsagency.com/index.php/2016/11/19/south-sudan-beefs-security-amid-mounting-tension/", "https://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64025", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61261", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/africa-trip-illustrates-haleys-trusted-unusually-direct-relationship-with-trump/2017/10/29/df7c4942-bc09-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html", "http://www.sudantribune.com/", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/sudan-political-groups.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/439313", 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["2017-09-14", 0.05], ["2017-09-16", 0.05], ["2017-09-18", 0.05], ["2017-09-18", 0.05], ["2017-09-20", 0.05], ["2017-09-21", 0.05], ["2017-09-21", 0.05], ["2017-09-21", 0.05], ["2017-09-21", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-30", 0.05], ["2017-10-01", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-04", 0.05], ["2017-10-07", 0.05], ["2017-10-10", 0.05], ["2017-10-11", 0.05], ["2017-10-13", 0.05], ["2017-10-15", 0.05], ["2017-10-16", 0.05], ["2017-10-16", 0.05], ["2017-10-19", 0.05], ["2017-10-20", 0.05], ["2017-10-21", 0.05], ["2017-10-22", 0.05], ["2017-10-23", 0.05], ["2017-10-24", 0.045], ["2017-10-25", 0.045], ["2017-10-26", 0.045], ["2017-10-26", 0.045], ["2017-10-27", 0.045], ["2017-10-28", 0.035], ["2017-10-29", 0.035], ["2017-10-29", 0.045], ["2017-10-30", 0.045], ["2017-10-31", 0.035], ["2017-10-31", 0.035], ["2017-11-01", 0.035], ["2017-11-02", 0.035], ["2017-11-03", 0.03], ["2017-11-04", 0.03], ["2017-11-06", 0.03], ["2017-11-07", 0.02], ["2017-11-10", 0.02], ["2017-11-12", 0.02], ["2017-11-12", 0.02], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-13", 0.01], ["2017-11-14", 0.01], ["2017-11-15", 0.01], ["2017-11-18", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-21", 0.01], ["2017-11-22", 0.01], ["2017-11-23", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-25", 0.01], ["2017-11-25", 0.01], ["2017-11-27", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/351 | Salva Kiir has been president of South Sudan since the country became independent in July 2011 (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12107760" target="_blank">BBC</a>), but his government has been fighting a civil war against forces led by his former vice president, Riek Machar, since late 2013 (<a href="http://www.usip.org/publications/2014/01/09/the-conflict-in-south-sudan-the-political-context" target="_blank">US Institute of Peace</a>). In the event that Kiir reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kiir returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/286" target="_blank">the president of Zimbabwe</a> or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/267" target="_blank">the president of Burundi</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Salva Kiir remains President of South Sudan. This question closed as “b) No,” with and end date of 1 December 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-01 | Will Salva Kiir cease to be President of South Sudan before 1 December 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2016-12-01 | 2016-11-22 | ["http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-11/24/c_135856270.htm", "https://postimg.org/image/k6srewcvl/", "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/11/01/alibaba-stock-sinks-insider-aiding-sec-inquiry/", "http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.111.6121&rep=rep1&type=pdf", "http://www.drdobbs.com/architecture-and-design/safe-systems-from-unreliable-parts/228701716", "https://hbr.org/2016/11/the-best-performing-ceos-in-the-world", "https://postimg.org/image/8xmsdex0z/", "http://fortune.com/2016/10/07/china-halt-capital-outflows/", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2040012/chinas-exodus-capital-numbers-game-where-scepticism-rules", "http://www.thepaypers.com/online-payments/alibaba-tencent-back-pboc-new-regulations-against-fraud-and-money-laundering/764541-3"] | binary | [["2016-11-22", 0.75], ["2016-11-22", 0.05], ["2016-11-22", 0.525], ["2016-11-22", 0.71], ["2016-11-22", 0.825], ["2016-11-22", 0.685], ["2016-11-22", 0.65], ["2016-11-22", 0.72], ["2016-11-22", 0.585], ["2016-11-22", 0.39], ["2016-11-22", 0.465], ["2016-11-22", 0.45], ["2016-11-22", 0.45], ["2016-11-22", 0.45], ["2016-11-22", 0.525], ["2016-11-22", 0.725], ["2016-11-22", 0.85], ["2016-11-22", 0.85], ["2016-11-22", 0.825], ["2016-11-22", 0.825], ["2016-11-22", 0.82], ["2016-11-22", 0.82], ["2016-11-23", 0.84], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-23", 0.82], ["2016-11-23", 0.775], ["2016-11-23", 0.705], ["2016-11-23", 0.67], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.765], ["2016-11-23", 0.78], ["2016-11-23", 0.78], ["2016-11-23", 0.81], ["2016-11-23", 0.795], ["2016-11-23", 0.83], ["2016-11-23", 0.795], ["2016-11-23", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.78], ["2016-11-24", 0.75], ["2016-11-24", 0.765], ["2016-11-25", 0.775], ["2016-11-25", 0.765], ["2016-11-25", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.75], ["2016-11-25", 0.765], ["2016-11-25", 0.765], ["2016-11-25", 0.765], ["2016-11-25", 0.765], ["2016-11-26", 0.765], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.75], ["2016-11-26", 0.765], ["2016-11-26", 0.765], ["2016-11-26", 0.78], ["2016-11-26", 0.8], ["2016-11-26", 0.81], ["2016-11-26", 0.81], ["2016-11-26", 0.82], ["2016-11-26", 0.82], ["2016-11-26", 0.82], ["2016-11-26", 0.83], ["2016-11-26", 0.83], ["2016-11-27", 0.82], ["2016-11-27", 0.805], ["2016-11-27", 0.805], ["2016-11-27", 0.8], ["2016-11-27", 0.81], ["2016-11-27", 0.805], ["2016-11-27", 0.82], ["2016-11-27", 0.805], ["2016-11-28", 0.81], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.815], ["2016-11-28", 0.815], ["2016-11-28", 0.815], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.825], ["2016-11-28", 0.825], ["2016-11-28", 0.825], ["2016-11-28", 0.85], ["2016-11-28", 0.85], ["2016-11-28", 0.85], ["2016-11-28", 0.85], ["2016-11-28", 0.825], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.85], ["2016-11-28", 0.85], ["2016-11-28", 0.825], ["2016-11-28", 0.825], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.8], ["2016-11-28", 0.8]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/355 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 28 November 2016. Alibaba’s market capitalisation exceeded Tencent’s on 28 November.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr>
Alibaba, an e-commerce goliath, and Tencent, a gaming company best known for its messaging and payments app WeChat, are two of the most valuable technology companies in China (<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/17/tencent-overtakes-alibaba-as-chinas-most-valuable-tech-company-as-wechat-owner-posts-strong-results.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12766/practice-makes-perfect" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>). Bloomberg provides a daily snapshot of market-capitalisation figures in the list of financial indicators below their price graphs: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BABA:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg: Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TCEHY:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg: Tencent Holdings Ltd</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/187" target="_blank">whether annual sales of electric vehicles in China will reach 500,000 in 2016</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/300" target="_blank">whether an Uber self driving car will be involved in an accident before the end of the year</a>. </sub> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2016-11-28 | Will Alibaba's market capitalisation exceed Tencent's at any point between 23 November 2016 and 1 June 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-04-20 | 2016-11-22 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/europe/britain-theresa-may-brexit-european-union.html?ribbon-ad-idx=5&rref=world/europe", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39643804", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lib-dems-would-surge-in-snap-election-tories-told-h695qhnv5", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-18/theresa-may-seeks-snap-u-k-elections-on-june-8", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/18/524480871/u-k-prime-minister-calls-for-early-election", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/eu-to-hold-first-brexit-summit-a-month-after-article-50-notice", "http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992", "http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/443918", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/theresa-may-uk-general-election-8-june", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/408557", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/355878", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/01/labour-puts-aside-4-million-war-chest-fight-snap-election-amid/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/463-before-1-january-2018-will-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-reach-an-agreement-on-payment-of-the-uk-s-outstanding-liabilities-to-the-eu", "http://europe.newsweek.com/uk-snap-election-date-theresa-may-call-early-election-fix-term-parliaments-act-570808?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=read_more&spMailingID=1507589&spUserID=MTI0NzM2MjM0NzYS1&spJobID=750591156&spReportId=NzUwNTkxMTU2S0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-politics-election-idUSKBN16R0UY?il=0", "http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/britains-prime-minister-seek-early-election-june-8", "http://qz.com/813206/article-50-legal-challenge-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-court-case-that-could-stop-brexit-from-happening/", 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["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.105], ["2017-04-18", 0.115], ["2017-04-18", 0.12], ["2017-04-18", 0.125], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-19", 0.15], ["2017-04-19", 0.15], ["2017-04-19", 0.15], ["2017-04-19", 0.15], ["2017-04-19", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/357 | General elections are not due again in the UK until 2020, but the recent court ruling requiring parliamentary approval for Brexit has prompted some calls for a snap election (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1a00ab3a-a270-11e6-82c3-4351ce86813f" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/03/high-court-to-rule-on-brexit-legal-battle-and-theresa-mays-decis/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37857785" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12586/wait-fall" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>), and British law allows for out-of-cycle elections under certain conditions (<a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/" target="_blank">www.parliament.uk</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/266" target="_blank">whether local elections will be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017</a>, or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/268" target="_blank">which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?</a></sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 19 April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39643804"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-19 | Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-05-11 | 2016-11-22 | ["http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/780862.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-president-south-korea.html?pagewanted=all", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-u-n-secretary-general-ban-ki-moon-drops-out-of-south-korean-presidential-race-1485931698", "http://westsidetoday.com/2017/02/22/ban-ki-moon-honored-at-century-city-dinner/", "https://www.nknews.org/2017/02/u-s-and-s-korea-agree-to-deploy-thaad-within-2017-mnd-says/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39202936", "http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170330000705", "https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20460182/president-met-with-ban-ki-moon-in-kenya.html", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=88LSYM2RGG0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-idUSKBN16H066", "http://time.com/4656226/ban-ki-moon-south-korea-presidency/", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/01/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/ex-u-n-chief-ban-ki-moon-abandons-bid-south-korean-presidency/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/ban-ki-moon-south-korea-presidency-170201143039174.html", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/former-united-nations-chief-ban-ki-moon-says-not-running-for-president-of-south-korea", "http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/02/356_223600.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/park-geun-hye-impeachment-170310020959193.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-south-korea-president.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDYpRhoZqBY", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/ban-ki-moon-wont-run-for-south-korean-president-after-all/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/former-un-chief-ban-ki-moon-will-not-run-for-president-of-south-korea/2017/02/01/b05c816d-9ce5-4c3a-84be-0e5b78890a17_story.html?utm_term=.619d66008ca4", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/02/22/whats-next-in-south-koreas-never-ending-political-turmoil/?utm_term=.4e955cb94d92", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-president-south-korea.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/asia/ban-ki-moon-president-south-korea.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2017/4/7/ban-ki-moon-hks/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-idUSKBN15G3IV?il=0"] | binary | [["2016-11-22", 0.775], ["2016-11-22", 0.41], ["2016-11-22", 0.49], ["2016-11-22", 0.4], ["2016-11-22", 0.575], ["2016-11-22", 0.575], ["2016-11-22", 0.6], ["2016-11-23", 0.625], ["2016-11-23", 0.55], ["2016-11-23", 0.475], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-23", 0.775], ["2016-11-23", 0.8], ["2016-11-23", 0.775], ["2016-11-23", 0.72], 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["2017-04-28", 0.135], ["2017-04-30", 0.135], ["2017-04-30", 0.105], ["2017-05-01", 0.1], ["2017-05-02", 0.1], ["2017-05-03", 0.1], ["2017-05-03", 0.1], ["2017-05-04", 0.1], ["2017-05-04", 0.1], ["2017-05-05", 0.1], ["2017-05-05", 0.1], ["2017-05-06", 0.1], ["2017-05-06", 0.1], ["2017-05-07", 0.1], ["2017-05-08", 0.1], ["2017-05-09", 0.1], ["2017-05-09", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/353 | Ban Ki-moon, the UN’s outgoing secretary-general, is rumored to be considering a run for the presidency in South Korea's December 2017 election (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/ban-ki-moon-leaves-presidential-bid-on-the-table/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). Saenuri, the party of President Park Geun-hye, seems eager to groom him as their next leader (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12617/bans-man" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-26/park-scandal-sparks-interest-in-south-korea-s-next-president" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/349" target="_blank">whether Chun-ying will win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 9 May 2017. The planned December 2017 election has held early after President Park's impeachment. That election ended on 9 May 2017, and Ban Ki-moon did not participate as a candidate.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-05-09 | Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon announce that he is running for president of South Korea? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-10-04 | 2016-11-22 | ["http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/352732-sessions-media-portrays-russia-investigation-in-ways-not-justifiable", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-cyber-russia/senator-says-russian-internet-trolls-stoked-nfl-debate-idUSKCN1C237J", "https://www.voanews.com/a/twitter-tells-congress-shut-down-two-hundred-accounts-linked-to-russia/4048833.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/us-ambassador-to-russia-confirmed/4049419.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/russian-facebook-ads-how-many-people-could-you-reach-with-100000.html", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-deepens-probe-of-russian-meddling-in-us-election-amid-congressional-pressure-2017-09-30", "https://www.statnews.com/2017/09/29/trump-mental-health-book/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/tweeter-to-meet-with-congressional-committes-russia-election-probe/4047814.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/unintended-consequences-catching-up-to-facebook/4050800.html", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-trolls-fan-us-controversy-over-football-player-protests-senator-lankford-says-intelligence-committee-election-investigation/28761686.html", "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-military-chief-dunford-says-recommends-providing-ukraine-lethal-defensive-aid/28759423.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/28/mike-pence-robert-mueller-lawyer-meeting-russia-243275", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-morgan-freeman-troll-target-putin/28749400.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/29/mccain-cardin-trump-russia-sanctions-243312", "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-senate-unanimously-confirms-huntsman-us-ambassador-russia/28763625.html", "https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-time-cure/201709/the-dangerous-case-donald-trump", "http://time.com/4960547/russia-roscosmos-nasa-moon-space-station/", "http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-twitter-russia-20170928-story.html", "http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/353102-trump-faces-key-deadline-on-russia-sanctions", "http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/the-conversation/sd-how-much-money-russians-spent-twitter-facebook-ads-20170928-htmlstory.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/353211-mueller-begins-interviewing-white-house-staff-in-collusion-probe", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/space-u-s-russia-friendship-untethered-n806101", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/russian-citizen-steven-seagal-under-siege-for-his-take-on-disgusting-anthem-protests-2017-09-27", "http://www.businessinsider.com/russians-facebook-black-lives-matter-muslim-group-disinformation-2017-9", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/russian-trolls-using-nfl-protests-sow-discord-online-republican-senator-n805296"] | binary | [["2016-11-22", 0.8], ["2016-11-22", 0.85], ["2016-11-22", 0.925], ["2016-11-23", 0.85], ["2016-11-23", 0.85], ["2016-11-23", 0.75], ["2016-11-23", 0.685], ["2016-11-23", 0.735], 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0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.04], ["2017-09-25", 0.04], ["2017-09-25", 0.03], ["2017-09-26", 0.03], ["2017-09-26", 0.03], ["2017-09-27", 0.03], ["2017-09-28", 0.03], ["2017-09-28", 0.03], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/352 | Clarification issued 12/12/2016: The question was updated to ask about an official bilateral visit.
Joint attendance at multilateral meetings will not count. President-elect Trump has repeatedly praised Vladimir Putin (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12602/trumpquake" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>, <a href="http://time.com/4564254/president-donald-trump-russia-vladimir-putin/" target="_blank">Time</a>, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-aide-donald-trump-russia-leader-very-much-alike-worldview/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>). President Obama's 2009 visit to Moscow is an example of an official bilateral visit (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/world/europe/08prexy.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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Neither Trump, nor Putin hosted the other for an official state visit. This question closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017."
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-10-01 | Will Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump host the other for an official bilateral visit before 1 October 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-10-04 | 2016-11-22 | ["http://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/HESA/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=9603581", "https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/09/25/house-legislation-access-information-bill-chamber-islamophobia-hearings-continue-committee/119827", "http://www.parl.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Bill=C45&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=42&Ses=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/opinion/canada-legalize-marijuana.html", "https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/05/28/canadians-worried-ottawa-rushing-into-pot-legalization-poll.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/526151", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/13/canada-announces-plans-to-legalize-marijuana-by-july-2018/?utm_term=.b9c1e920aef1", "https://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/HESA/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=9603581", "http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-08/31/content_31386154.htm", "https://www.ourcommons.ca/en/sitting-calendar", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/marijuana-legalization-poll-1.4076536", "http://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/HESA/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=8967213", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/premiers-marijuana-legislation-1.4209113", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/cannabis-survey-1.4280982", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_Canada#cite_note-senfocus-2", "https://openparliament.ca/debates/2017/5/30/kate-young-1/?page=17", "http://host.madison.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/uh-oh-canada-s-recreational-marijuana-bill-could-be-in/article_4fab242e-0f09-59b2-b8d6-53e37254202c.html", "http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/parliament-is-back-in-session-soon-a-legislative-primer-1.3578028", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/opinion/canada-legalize-marijuana.html?mcubz=3", "https://lop.parl.ca/About/Parliament/GuideToHoC/making-e.htm", "http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/house-health-committee-to-reconvene-early-to-study-pot-bill-1.3558731", 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["2017-09-12", 0.15], ["2017-09-12", 0.15], ["2017-09-13", 0.15], ["2017-09-14", 0.15], ["2017-09-15", 0.15], ["2017-09-16", 0.15], ["2017-09-17", 0.15], ["2017-09-18", 0.15], ["2017-09-18", 0.15], ["2017-09-20", 0.13], ["2017-09-20", 0.13], ["2017-09-21", 0.105], ["2017-09-21", 0.1], ["2017-09-21", 0.1], ["2017-09-21", 0.1], ["2017-09-21", 0.1], ["2017-09-21", 0.1], ["2017-09-21", 0.09], ["2017-09-21", 0.085], ["2017-09-22", 0.08], ["2017-09-22", 0.055], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-30", 0.05], ["2017-09-30", 0.05], ["2017-10-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/354 | Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to legalise recreational marijuana (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12607/canada-high" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>, <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/10/20/9573497/canada-marijuana-legalization-justin-trudeau" target="_blank">Vox</a>). The health minister has indicated that a bill will be introduced in the spring of 2017. For more information on Canada's legislative process see <a href="http://guides.library.queensu.ca/gov/canada/federal/how-a-bill-becomes-a-law" target="_blank">Queen's University Library</a>.
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Canada has not legalized recreational marijuana. This question closed as "No," with and end date 1 October 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-10-01 | Will Canada legalise recreational marijuana nationally before 1 October 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2016-12-06 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-navy-wargames-idUSKBN165094", "https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-satellite-un-idUKKBN1AI1UJ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-navy-idUSKBN16D1X3", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/31/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-iran-missile-test.html", "http://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-1.756645", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-arrest-idUSKBN16C0PI", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/us-iran-missile-test/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN1AI2N0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKCN1B918E", "https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/acc_e.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN19B2Y7", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN16O2RL", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-security-carrier-iran-idUSKBN16W0TA", "http://www.globalintelligencetrust.com/single-post/2016/08/17/WTO-Membership-for-Iran-A-Catalyst-for-Economic-Growth-and-Decentralization-of-Power", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-whitehouse-idUSKBN17L29X", "https://www.rt.com/news/379427-iran-tests-russian-s300/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-security-carrier-idUSKBN16T2CZ", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/iran-world-trade-organization-wto-accession-bid.html#ixzz4T53Ya9EX", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-tillerson-idUSKBN17L08I", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-test-fires-medium-range-ballistic-missile-1489082919?mod=e2fb", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/lawmakers-urge-u-s-to-block-irans-wto-bid-1475793488", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN16U2VI", "http://english.aawsat.com/adel-al-salmi/world-news/threat-war-stokes-conflict-iran", 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["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.0], ["2017-11-23", 0.0], ["2017-11-24", 0.0], ["2017-11-25", 0.0], ["2017-11-26", 0.0], ["2017-11-27", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/359 | The first step in the WTO accession process is the establishment of a Working Party. Iran's Working Party was established in 2005 but has yet to meet (<a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/iran-world-trade-organization-wto-accession-bid.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/a1_iran_e.htm" target="_blank">World Trade Organization</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162-will-venezuela-or-its-state-owned-oil-company-petroleos-de-venezuela-sa-pdvsa-default-on-any-of-its-foreign-debt-before-1-february-2017" target="_blank">whether Venezuela or its state owned oil company will default on foreign debt</a> or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/346-will-saudi-arabia-s-holdings-of-us-treasury-securities-dip-below-50-billion-before-1-june-2017" target="_blank">whether Saudi Arabia's holdings of US Treasury securities will dip below $50B in the coming months</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party did not meet. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will the World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party meet before 1 January 2018? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2017-04-22", 0.99], ["2017-04-23", 0.99], ["2017-04-23", 0.99], ["2017-04-24", 0.99], ["2017-04-24", 0.99], ["2017-04-24", 0.99], ["2017-04-25", 0.99], ["2017-04-26", 0.99], ["2017-04-26", 0.99], ["2017-04-27", 0.99], ["2017-04-27", 0.99], ["2017-04-28", 0.99], ["2017-04-28", 0.99], ["2017-04-29", 0.99], ["2017-04-29", 0.99], ["2017-04-29", 0.99], ["2017-04-30", 0.99], ["2017-04-30", 0.995], ["2017-05-01", 0.995], ["2017-05-02", 0.995], ["2017-05-02", 0.995], ["2017-05-03", 0.995], ["2017-05-03", 0.995], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-07", 1.0], ["2017-05-07", 1.0], ["2017-05-08", 1.0], ["2017-05-08", 1.0], ["2017-05-08", 1.0], ["2017-05-08", 1.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/361 | The Balikatan exercise is the flagship exercise for the US-Philippine alliance and is normally held in the spring (<a href="http://www.marforpac.marines.mil/Exercises/Balikatan/" target="_blank">United States Marine Corps</a>, <a href="http://www.update.ph/2016/06/us-philippines-start-planning-balikatan-2017/6626" target="_blank">Update Philippines</a>). President Duterte announced the October 2016 military exercise between US and Filipino military forces would be the last one (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-exercises-idUSKCN1240NZ" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/20/1635493/cabinet-not-consulted-termination-philippine-us-exercises" target="_blank">The Philippine Star</a>, <a href="http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/09/29/Duterte-last-US-joint-military-exercise.html" target="_blank">CNN Philippines</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, try forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/297" target="_blank">whether President Duterte will declare martial law in the Philippines</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 8 May 2017. Balikatan started on 8 May 2017 and the Philippines are participating (<a href = "http://www.rappler.com/nation/169168-balikatan-duterte-opening-philippines"target="_blank">Rappler</a>, <a href = "http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/world/philippines-smaller-scale-joint-military-exercises-article-1.3146349"target="_blank">NY Daily News</a>, <a href = "http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/05/08/1697947/australia-japan-forces-join-balikatan-2017"target="-blank">The Philippine Star</a>, <a href = "http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/what-to-expect-from-the-2017-us-philippines-balikatan-military-exercise/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>).
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<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-05-08 | Will the Philippines participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise? | gjopen | 1 |
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["2017-03-03", 0.73], ["2017-03-03", 0.73], ["2017-03-03", 0.73], ["2017-03-03", 0.73], ["2017-03-04", 0.73], ["2017-03-04", 0.73]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/364 | This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 4 March 2017 (<a href = "http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-fake-news-solution-2017-3"target="_blank">Buisness Insider</a>, <a href = "https://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2017/03/05/facebook-fake-news-tool/#19749877ec1b"target="_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href = "http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/03/06/facebook-begins-flagging-disputed-fake-news/98804948/"target="_blank">USA Today</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The proliferation of "fake news" on Facebook during the US presidential election has led to criticism of the social media platform (<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/11/501743684/zuckerberg-denies-fake-news-on-facebook-had-impact-on-the-election" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/viral-fake-election-news-outperformed-real-news-on-facebook" target="_blank">Buzzfeed</a>). CEO Mark Zuckerberg has laid out plans to combat misinformation, including the possibility of posting warning labels on stories (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10103269806149061" target="_blank">Facebook</a>, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/11/19/how-facebook-plans-crack-down-fake-news/94123842/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>). Facebook must implement a widespread, default feature that adds warning labels to news stories that are possibly false or misleading in order for this question to resolve as "yes".
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/187" target="_blank">whether annual sales of electric vehicles in China will reach 500,000 in 2016</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/94" target="_blank">whether TIME magazine will cease publishing a US print edition in the near future</a>. </sub> | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-03-04 | Will Facebook add warning labels to news stories before July 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-06-06 | 2016-12-09 | ["https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1996", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/15/asia/river-personhood-trnd/", "https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/04/03/dakota-access-oil-by-rail", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-energy-nationalparks-idUSKBN14V1EP", "https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/335898-dakota-access-pipeline-now-in-service", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-north-dakota-pipeline-idUSKBN17F2TO", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/dakota-access-pipeline-operation-months-resistance/", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/01/us/dakota-access-pipeline-oil-flowing/", "https://daplpipelinefacts.com/about-the-dakota-access-pipeline/", "https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-04-01/himalayan-glaciers-are-granted-rights-human-beings-protection", "http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/05/22/dapl-system-leaks-march/", "http://www.businessinsider.com/the-dakota-access-pipeline-sprung-2-new-leaks-2017-5", "http://www.refinery29.com/2017/04/150004/dakota-access-pipeline-date-start-delivering-oil", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/01/us/dakota-access-pipeline-oil-flowing/", "https://www.bna.com/dakota-access-pipeline-n57982087544/", "http://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/Dakota-Access-Pipeline-begins-pumping-crude-oil-from-Bakken-to-Illinois-422384134.html", "https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/the-dakota-access-pipeline-is-already-leaking", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/332810-dakota-access-pipeline-leaks-84-gallons-of-oil-in-sd", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/06/01/531097758/crude-oil-begins-to-flow-through-controversial-dakota-access-pipeline", "https://www.law360.com/articles/911420/dakota-access-mostly-loses-bid-to-shield-suit-documents", "http://arcgis.sd.gov/server/denr/spillsviewer/", "http://fortune.com/2017/04/14/dakota-access-pipeline-interstate-delivery/", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/335898-dakota-access-pipeline-now-in-service", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/22/asia/india-river-human/", "http://www.ncai.org/about-tribes/indians_101.pdf"] | binary | [["2016-12-09", 0.545], ["2016-12-09", 0.72], ["2016-12-10", 0.75], ["2016-12-10", 0.35], ["2016-12-10", 0.365], ["2016-12-10", 0.54], ["2016-12-10", 0.57], ["2016-12-11", 0.545], ["2016-12-11", 0.55], ["2016-12-11", 0.54], ["2016-12-11", 0.45], ["2016-12-12", 0.3], ["2016-12-12", 0.275], ["2016-12-12", 0.275], ["2016-12-12", 0.35], ["2016-12-12", 0.375], ["2016-12-12", 0.4], ["2016-12-12", 0.375], ["2016-12-13", 0.45], ["2016-12-13", 0.415], ["2016-12-13", 0.44], ["2016-12-13", 0.44], ["2016-12-14", 0.475], ["2016-12-14", 0.52], ["2016-12-15", 0.5], ["2016-12-15", 0.49], ["2016-12-15", 0.48], ["2016-12-16", 0.48], ["2016-12-17", 0.49], ["2016-12-18", 0.5], ["2016-12-18", 0.525], ["2016-12-18", 0.55], ["2016-12-18", 0.525], ["2016-12-18", 0.55], ["2016-12-18", 0.525], ["2016-12-19", 0.49], ["2016-12-19", 0.45], ["2016-12-19", 0.475], ["2016-12-19", 0.45], 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["2017-04-18", 0.96], ["2017-04-18", 0.96], ["2017-04-19", 0.96], ["2017-04-19", 0.96], ["2017-04-20", 0.96], ["2017-04-21", 0.96], ["2017-04-22", 0.96], ["2017-04-23", 0.96], ["2017-04-24", 0.96], ["2017-04-24", 0.96], ["2017-04-25", 0.96], ["2017-04-25", 0.96], ["2017-04-26", 0.96], ["2017-04-27", 0.96], ["2017-04-28", 0.96], ["2017-04-28", 0.96], ["2017-04-29", 0.96], ["2017-04-30", 0.96], ["2017-04-30", 0.96], ["2017-05-02", 0.96], ["2017-05-02", 0.96], ["2017-05-03", 0.96], ["2017-05-04", 0.96], ["2017-05-05", 0.96], ["2017-05-05", 0.96], ["2017-05-06", 0.965], ["2017-05-07", 0.965], ["2017-05-07", 0.97], ["2017-05-08", 0.97], ["2017-05-09", 0.97], ["2017-05-09", 0.97], ["2017-05-10", 0.97], ["2017-05-11", 0.97], ["2017-05-12", 0.965], ["2017-05-12", 0.97], ["2017-05-12", 0.97], ["2017-05-12", 0.97], ["2017-05-12", 0.97], ["2017-05-13", 0.97], ["2017-05-13", 0.97], ["2017-05-13", 0.97], ["2017-05-14", 0.97], ["2017-05-14", 0.97], ["2017-05-15", 0.97], ["2017-05-16", 0.97], ["2017-05-16", 0.97], ["2017-05-17", 0.97], ["2017-05-18", 0.97], ["2017-05-19", 0.975], ["2017-05-20", 0.98], ["2017-05-21", 0.98], ["2017-05-21", 0.98], ["2017-05-22", 0.985], ["2017-05-23", 0.985], ["2017-05-24", 0.985], ["2017-05-24", 0.98], ["2017-05-25", 0.98], ["2017-05-26", 0.985], ["2017-05-27", 0.985], ["2017-05-28", 0.99], ["2017-05-29", 0.99], ["2017-05-30", 0.99], ["2017-05-30", 0.99], ["2017-05-31", 0.99], ["2017-06-01", 0.99], ["2017-06-01", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/363 | The Dakota Access Pipeline is a 1,172 mile pipeline built to transport oil from the Bakken shale oil fields of North Dakota to Illinois (<a href="http://www.daplpipelinefacts.com/" target="_blank">Energy Transfer Partners, L.P.</a>). Originally scheduled to be operational by the end of 2016, its completion has been stalled by protests (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/north-dakota-oil-pipeline-battle-whos-fighting-and-why.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>) and a US Army Corps of Engineer report (<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/04/us-army-corps-of-engineers-denies-easement-for-dakota-access-pipeline-sioux.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also try forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195" target="_blank">whether the DAPA program will be implemented prior to inauguration day</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299" target="_blank">whether the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017</a>, or <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/307" target="_blank">whether farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District will be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 1 June 2017 (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/38-billion-dakota-access-oil-pipeline-begins-service/2017/06/01/ad99020e-46dd-11e7-8de1-cec59a9bf4b1_story.html?utm_term=.fdd58b34f6b7"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://ir.energytransfer.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106094&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2278014"target="_blank">Energy Transfer Partners</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-06-01 | Will the Dakota Access Pipeline begin transporting oil before January 2018? | gjopen | 1 |
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and the Palestinian Authority ended in 2014, but diplomats and heads of state continue to press for the resumption of the peace process (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-palestinian-peace-initiatives-are-suddenly-popping-up-everywhere/2016/06/02/e458dd3e-282d-11e6-8329-6104954928d2_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post 06/02/16</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/diplomats-want-israeli-palestinian-peace-talks-by-end-of-the-year/2016/06/03/626255fa-29a2-11e6-a3c4-0724e8e24f3f_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post 6/03/16</a>, <a href = "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/08/24/Vladimir-Putin-offers-Middle-East-peace-talks-for-Israel-Palestinians/6791472014436/" target = "_blank">United Press International</a>, <a href = "http://www.timesofisrael.com/at-un-sissi-urges-israel-to-move-toward-peace/" target = "_blank">Times of Israel</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = " https://www.gjopen.com/questions/294" target = "_blank">the travel of Turkish Citizens in Russia without a Visa</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/278" target = "_blank"> the Syrian Refugee status</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 May 2017.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-05-31 | Will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet to discuss the peace process before 1 June 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
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"http://www.economist.com/blogs/erasmus/2016/10/venezuela-and-vatican", "http://www.pravdareport.com/world/americas/12-01-2017/136613-venezuela-0/#sthash.0guBKUfS.dpuf", "http://www.startribune.com/venezuela-once-south-america-s-richest-country-continues-to-spiral/412209203/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/405972", "https://www.dailysabah.com/americas/2017/05/26/barricades-protests-spread-after-venezuela-election-dates-set", "http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/south-america/item/23625-venezuela-now-a-military-dictatorship", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19E2G8", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN18Y3B3", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-insight-idUSKBN15O2BC", "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21715658-economy-collapsing-nation-war-government-blame-venezuelas-leaders", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-06-20/venezuelan-crisis-takes-center-stage-at-oas-meeting-in-mexico", 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["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/366 | The political crisis in Venezuela has continued to escalate, with the opposition calling for early elections or a recall referendum (<a href="http://time.com/4561509/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-protests/" target = "_blank">Time</a>,<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2016/10/28/political-risk-analysis-is-venezuela-now-entering-a-full-blown-political-crisis/#50fc1e4e418f" target ="_blank"> Forbes </a>, <a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12609/red-retreat" target = "_blank">The World In 2017</a>). President Maduro has stated that early elections are not on the table, but has agreed to participate in Vatican-sponsored negotiations with the opposition (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37973816" target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN13W03Z?il=0" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). For more information on constitutional requirements for a recall referendum see Chapter IV, Section 2, Article 72 of Venezuela's constitution (<a href = "https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Venezuela_2009.pdf?lang=en" target = "_blank">Constitute Project</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/162" target = "_blank"> the likelihood of Petroleos de Venezuela SA defaulting on Foreign Debt</a>, <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/286" target = _"blank">a new president for Zimbabwe</a>, <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/108" target = "_blank"> Syrian Elections</a>, or <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/268" target = "_blank">the outcome of the French Presidential Election</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Neither an early election or recall referendum took place in Venezuela. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Will an early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-07-05 | 2016-12-20 | ["https://markets.ft.com/data/league-tables/tables-and-trends/mergers-and-acquisitions", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/global-ma-activity-may-drop-to-2-5-trillion-in-2017-report/articleshow/57035505.cms", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-steel-m-a-global-idUSKBN17Z0VR", "https://www.mergermarket.com/pdf/MergermarketFinancialLeagueTableReport.Q12017.pdf", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/q2-2017-ma-remain-strong-continental-europe-uk-stalls/", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/latin-america-ma-rollercoaster-hits-latest-barrel-roll/#", "http://mergermarketgroup.com/publication/monthly-ma-insider-may-2017/#.WSwImTOB3-Z", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/asia-pacific-early-stage-ma-booming/#", "http://graphics.wsj.com/investment-banking-scorecard/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/505436", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/0e9afdce-cdb6-11e6-b8ce-b9c03770f8b1", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/suntrust/2017/01/13/the-4-biggest-trends-in-mergers-and-acquisitions-for-2017/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-31/october-smashes-merger-records-as-companies-turn-to-megadeals", "https://imaa-institute.org/mergers-and-acquisitions-statistics/", "https://info.kpmg.us/ma-survey-2017.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m-a-firstquarter-idUSKBN1713AQ", "https://blogs.intralinks.com/2017/03/ma-volatility-ahead-north-america/#", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-markets-m-a-idUSKBN161118", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/17/kraft-heinz-proposes-merger-deal-which-unilever-rejects.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/f2f18038-1465-11e7-b0c1-37e417ee6c76", "http://fortune.com/2016/12/26/tech-mergers-2017-donald-trump/", "https://www.paulweiss.com/practices/transactional/mergers-acquisitions/publications/ma-at-a-glance-may-2017?id=24330", 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["2017-06-27", 0.68], ["2017-06-28", 0.68], ["2017-06-28", 0.68], ["2017-06-28", 0.68], ["2017-06-29", 0.68], ["2017-06-29", 0.66], ["2017-06-29", 0.655], ["2017-06-29", 0.655], ["2017-06-29", 0.65], ["2017-06-30", 0.65], ["2017-06-30", 0.65], ["2017-07-01", 0.65], ["2017-07-01", 0.65]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/371 | Anti-trust regulation, populism and a backlash against globalisation may be affecting appetites for dealmaking (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12757/waving-goodbye" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>). Question will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and resolved based on open source reporting of Thomson Reuters' M&A deal value data for the second quarter of 2017. Announced global M&A deals reached a value of $839 billion in the second quarter of 2016, down 32.5 percent from the same period in 2015 (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m-a-analysis-idUSKCN0ZF2YG" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/358" target="_blank">the end of day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017</a> or on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356" target="_blank">the European Central Bank's January decision with respect to the deposit rate</a>.</sub>
According to <a href ="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m-a-idUSKBN19K37H"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, the value of announced global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals during the second quarter of 2017 continued to decrease to $771 billion, and does not exceed Q2 2016. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Will the value of announced global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals during the second quarter of 2017 exceed those in the second quarter of 2016? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2016-12-20 | ["http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3875394/US-troops-deployed-Poland-stand-guard-Russia-s-borders-biggest-military-build-Cold-War-Putin-s-attack-DNC-mass-nuclear-drill.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-exhumes-president-killed-in-russia-plane-crash-1479145204", "http://m.dw.com/en/no-russian-troops-in-ukraine-putin-says/a-18387284", "http://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/post-truth-named-2016-word-of-the-year/3603012.html", "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21679470-new-government-poland-has-made-awful-start-europes-new-headache", "http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/visit-russia-before-russia-visits-you.png", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_parliamentary_election,_2015", "http://togroklife.com/category/poland/", "http://lfpr.lt/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LFPR-28-Zielinski.pdf", "http://geoinfo.amu.edu.pl/qg/archives/2010/QG294-075-82_Palmowski.pdf", "http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/lithuania-to-build-kaliningrad-border-fence-with-eu-money/", "https://www.academia.edu/12000374/The_Riddle_of_Kaliningrad", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/lithuania-build-fence-border-russian-exclave-134121687.html", "http://warsawpoint.com/politics/2464-visa-free-polish-russian-border-traffic-remain-suspended.html", "http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/267778,Kaliningrad-border-restrictions-%E2%80%98will-benefit-budget%E2%80%99-official", "http://www.dw.com/en/kaliningrad-visa-free-border-traffic-suspended/av-36079843", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/12/doubts-over-biggest-us-deployment-in-europe-since-cold-war-under-trump", "http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.858.3280&rep=rep1&type=pdf", "https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/01/16/pola-j16.html"] | binary | [["2016-12-20", 0.675], ["2016-12-20", 0.05], ["2016-12-20", 0.175], ["2016-12-20", 0.3], ["2016-12-21", 0.275], ["2016-12-21", 0.3], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/369 | Ahead of the 2016 Warsaw Summit, Poland suspended the small-border-traffic law which allowed visa-free travel into Poland from Ukraine and the Russian city of Kaliningrad (<a href="http://thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/259971" target = "_blank">Polskie Radio S.A</a>). Poland has since reintroduced the visa-free zone with Ukraine, but not yet with Kaliningrad, stating security concerns as reason for the sustained suspension (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-04/poland-keeps-russia-border-shut-to-traffic-amid-business-chagrin" target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>). For more information on the small-border-traffic law see: <a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/10/poland-and-kaliningrad" target = "_blank">The Economist</a>.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the New START treaty</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Poland did not reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will Poland reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2016-12-20 | ["http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/07/russia-says-it-may-reopen-soviet-era-military-bases-in-cuba-and/", "http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/world/cuba/lourdes.htm", "http://www.janes.com/article/64911/russian-defence-budget-set-to-drop-by-12", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/521869", "http://freebeacon.com/national-security/moscow-building-spy-site-nicaragua/", "http://mt-milcom.blogspot.it/2016/02/putin-reopening-lourdes-sigint-station.html?m=1", "http://www.periodicocubano.com/interes-ruso-reabrir-base-militar-cuba/", "https://cubaconfidential.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/dirty-little-secret-why-china-needs-cuba/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lourdes_SIGINT_Station", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-cuba-idUSKBN1990A3", "https://gizmodo.com/james-clapper-says-that-america-needs-a-new-propaganda-1790801701", "http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/russian-spy-ship-viktor-leonov-spotted-virginia-article-1.2975688", 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["2017-11-17", 0.01], ["2017-11-19", 0.01], ["2017-11-20", 0.01], ["2017-11-21", 0.01], ["2017-11-23", 0.01], ["2017-11-24", 0.01], ["2017-11-26", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-28", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-07", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-12", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/370 | Russia may be looking to expand the number of military facilities it has abroad, and rumors have circulated since 2014 that Russia and Cuba have discussed reopening the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center, which was closed in 2001 (<a href = "https://www.rt.com/politics/256829-russia-cuba-lourdes-base/" target = "_blank">RT</a>, <a href = "https://sputniknews.com/military/201610081046123220-russian-abroad-military-bases/" target = "_blank">Sputnik</a>, <a href = "https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/russia-strives-cover-its-bases" target = "_blank">Stratfor</a>, <a href = "http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-us-major-defence-partner-agreement-manohar-parrikar-ashton-carter-4418019/"target = "_blank">Indian Express</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/221" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/222" target = "_blank"> Russia's participation in the New START treaty</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Russia and Cuba did not announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 2018, will Russia and Cuba announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-01-30 | 2016-12-27 | ["http://www.npr.org/2017/01/30/512066715/executive-order-or-memorandum-lets-call-the-whole-thing-an-action", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/refugee-muslim-executive-order-trump.html?_r=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/28/us/refugees-detained-at-us-airports-prompting-legal-challenges-to-trumps-immigration-order.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/374-before-30-april-2017-will-the-u-s-suspend-immigration-from-any-country-designated-as-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-or-a-terrorist-safe-haven/www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-zones-russia-idUSKBN15A0WK?il=0", "http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/judge-grants-temporary-stay-trump-refugee-order-n713671", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/trumps-impending-bans-on-refugees-and-immigrants-triggers-fears-globally/2017/01/26/c698e67e-e33d-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.6206709bc40a&wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1", "https://ir.usembassy.gov/protecting-nation-foreign-terrorist-entry-united-states/", "https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/granule/USCODE-2011-title8/USCODE-2011-title8-chap12-subchapII-partII-sec1187", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/424671", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-immigration-sadr-iraq-idUSKBN15D0H9?il=0", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/executive-orders", "https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-4391.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/trump-muslim-immigration-order/514460/", "https://www.cato.org/blog/guide-trumps-executive-order-limit-migration-national-security-reasons", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38783512", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38787517", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/refugee-muslim-executive-order-trump.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-executiveorders-idUSKBN15B1SS?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/01/27/annotated-the-trump-administrations-executive-order-on-refugees-and-immigrants/?utm_term=.c6654279291d", "http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions", "http://www.npr.org/2017/01/26/511851716/trump-renews-consideration-of-military-safe-zones-in-syria", "http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/25/14390106/leaked-drafts-trump-immigrants-executive-order", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/26/donald-trump-muslim-abc-news-interview/97077644/", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/refugees-detained-at-us-airports-prompting-legal-challenges-to-trump%E2%80%99s-immigration-order/ar-AAmlusq"] | binary | [["2016-12-27", 0.795], ["2016-12-27", 0.775], ["2016-12-27", 0.8], ["2016-12-27", 0.575], ["2016-12-27", 0.11], ["2016-12-27", 0.38], ["2016-12-28", 0.725], ["2016-12-28", 0.8], ["2016-12-28", 0.725], ["2016-12-28", 0.75], ["2016-12-28", 0.65], ["2016-12-28", 0.6], ["2016-12-28", 0.75], ["2016-12-28", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.7], ["2016-12-29", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.75], ["2016-12-29", 0.625], ["2016-12-29", 0.61], ["2016-12-29", 0.525], ["2016-12-29", 0.44], ["2016-12-29", 0.44], ["2016-12-29", 0.44], ["2016-12-30", 0.63], ["2016-12-30", 0.65], ["2016-12-30", 0.65], ["2016-12-30", 0.65], ["2016-12-30", 0.7], ["2016-12-30", 0.675], ["2016-12-30", 0.7], ["2016-12-31", 0.7], ["2016-12-31", 0.725], ["2016-12-31", 0.75], ["2016-12-31", 0.75], ["2017-01-01", 0.75], ["2017-01-01", 0.75], ["2017-01-01", 0.75], ["2017-01-01", 0.7], ["2017-01-01", 0.62], ["2017-01-01", 0.61], ["2017-01-01", 0.6], ["2017-01-01", 0.61], ["2017-01-01", 0.6], ["2017-01-01", 0.6], ["2017-01-01", 0.65], ["2017-01-01", 0.65], ["2017-01-01", 0.625], ["2017-01-01", 0.65], ["2017-01-01", 0.6], ["2017-01-01", 0.625], ["2017-01-01", 0.6], ["2017-01-01", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.65], ["2017-01-02", 0.68], ["2017-01-03", 0.65], ["2017-01-03", 0.665], ["2017-01-03", 0.665], ["2017-01-03", 0.68], ["2017-01-03", 0.65], ["2017-01-03", 0.65], ["2017-01-03", 0.65], ["2017-01-03", 0.65], ["2017-01-03", 0.65], ["2017-01-04", 0.65], ["2017-01-04", 0.65], ["2017-01-04", 0.65], ["2017-01-04", 0.625], ["2017-01-05", 0.65], ["2017-01-05", 0.65], ["2017-01-05", 0.625], ["2017-01-05", 0.65], ["2017-01-05", 0.65], ["2017-01-05", 0.65], ["2017-01-05", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], 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["2017-01-10", 0.7], ["2017-01-11", 0.7], ["2017-01-11", 0.7], ["2017-01-11", 0.7], ["2017-01-11", 0.7], ["2017-01-11", 0.7], ["2017-01-11", 0.7], ["2017-01-11", 0.72], ["2017-01-11", 0.71], ["2017-01-11", 0.725], ["2017-01-11", 0.73], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-11", 0.75], ["2017-01-12", 0.75], ["2017-01-12", 0.75], ["2017-01-12", 0.74], ["2017-01-12", 0.725], ["2017-01-12", 0.725], ["2017-01-12", 0.73], ["2017-01-12", 0.73], ["2017-01-12", 0.73], ["2017-01-12", 0.725], ["2017-01-13", 0.71], ["2017-01-13", 0.7], ["2017-01-13", 0.7], ["2017-01-13", 0.7], ["2017-01-14", 0.7], ["2017-01-14", 0.69], ["2017-01-14", 0.65], ["2017-01-14", 0.65], ["2017-01-14", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-15", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-16", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-17", 0.65], ["2017-01-18", 0.65], ["2017-01-18", 0.65], ["2017-01-18", 0.65], ["2017-01-19", 0.65], ["2017-01-19", 0.65], ["2017-01-19", 0.65], ["2017-01-19", 0.65], ["2017-01-19", 0.65], ["2017-01-19", 0.65], ["2017-01-19", 0.65], ["2017-01-20", 0.65], ["2017-01-20", 0.625], ["2017-01-20", 0.625], ["2017-01-20", 0.65], ["2017-01-20", 0.65], ["2017-01-20", 0.6], ["2017-01-21", 0.6], ["2017-01-21", 0.6], ["2017-01-21", 0.6], ["2017-01-21", 0.6], ["2017-01-21", 0.6], ["2017-01-21", 0.6], ["2017-01-22", 0.6], ["2017-01-22", 0.65], ["2017-01-22", 0.65], ["2017-01-22", 0.65], ["2017-01-22", 0.625], ["2017-01-22", 0.625], ["2017-01-22", 0.625], ["2017-01-22", 0.65], ["2017-01-23", 0.65], ["2017-01-23", 0.65], ["2017-01-23", 0.65], ["2017-01-23", 0.65], ["2017-01-23", 0.6], ["2017-01-23", 0.6], ["2017-01-23", 0.6], ["2017-01-23", 0.6], ["2017-01-23", 0.6], ["2017-01-24", 0.6], ["2017-01-24", 0.6], ["2017-01-24", 0.6], ["2017-01-24", 0.6], ["2017-01-24", 0.58], ["2017-01-24", 0.555], ["2017-01-24", 0.56], ["2017-01-24", 0.6], ["2017-01-25", 0.6], ["2017-01-25", 0.6], ["2017-01-25", 0.6], ["2017-01-25", 0.6], ["2017-01-25", 0.6], ["2017-01-25", 0.6], ["2017-01-25", 0.615], ["2017-01-25", 0.64], ["2017-01-25", 0.65], ["2017-01-25", 0.65], ["2017-01-25", 0.65], ["2017-01-25", 0.65], ["2017-01-25", 0.665], ["2017-01-25", 0.675], ["2017-01-25", 0.695], ["2017-01-25", 0.7], ["2017-01-25", 0.7], ["2017-01-25", 0.7], ["2017-01-25", 0.7], ["2017-01-25", 0.7], ["2017-01-25", 0.7], ["2017-01-25", 0.73], ["2017-01-25", 0.73], ["2017-01-25", 0.73], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-26", 0.75], ["2017-01-27", 0.75], ["2017-01-27", 0.75], ["2017-01-27", 0.75], ["2017-01-27", 0.75], ["2017-01-27", 0.75], ["2017-01-27", 0.77], ["2017-01-27", 0.77], ["2017-01-27", 0.77]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/374 | This question was resolves as "yes" with an end date of 27 January 2016 (<a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-01-27/a-look-at-trumps-executive-order-on-refugees-immigration"target="_blank">US News</a>, <a href = "https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-expected-sign-directive-halting-refugee-flows-us-161856152--politics.html"target = "_blank">Yahoo! New</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/refugee-muslim-executive-order-trump.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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Part of President-elect Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office calls for the suspension of "immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur" (<a href ="http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days"target = "_blank">NPR </a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/19/us/politics/donald-trump-immigration.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). The president has the power to suspend by proclamation entry of any particular class of citizens from designated countries (<a href = "https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2011-title8/html/USCODE-2011-title8-chap12-subchapII-partII-sec1182.htm"target = "_blank">8 USC §1182(f)</a>). The U.S. Department of State designates countries as "Terrorist Safe Havens" (<a href = "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257522.htm"target = "_blank">U.S. Department of State </a>) and/or "State Sponsors of Terrorism" (<a href = "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257520.htm" target = "_blank">U.S. Department of State</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/373" target = "_blank"> Rex Tillerson's Confirmation</a> or on the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> U.S withdrawing from NAFTA</a>.</sub> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-01-27 | Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from any country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-02-02 | 2016-12-27 | ["http://www.businessinsider.com/carter-page-trump-russia-igor-sechin-dossier-2017-1", "http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8672672.stm", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-do-we-know-about-investigations-trump-associates-ties-russia", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/trump-nomination-to-lead-state-picks-up-support-in-senate/articleshow/56724270.cms", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/the-latest-sen-mccain-says-hell-support-rex-tillerson/articleshow/56719875.cms", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-tillerson-idUSKBN15E2SW", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-mattis-idUSKBN1542VA", "https://www.facebook.com/SenatorMarcoRubio/posts/1542347642457261", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/01/26/the-state-departments-entire-senior-management-team-just-resigned/?utm_term=.9911eac7e2fc&wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tillerson-idUSKBN1560X8", "http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/314506-mccain-leans-toward-voting-for-tillerson", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/01/10/nominations_derailed_the_last_10_cabinet_appointees_to_fail.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/12/politics/jeff-merkley-rex-tillerson/", "http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/world/article129453019.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-tillerson-idUSKBN15E2SW?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-tillerson-idUSKBN1572UA", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/mccain-tillerson-senate-confirm-233989", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-block-a-cabinet-nominee/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38835462", "http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/02/01/senate-approves-rex-tillerson-secretary-state/97349470/", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/315634-rubio-to-vote-for-tillerson", 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href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/us/politics/rex-tillerson-secretary-of-state-confirmed.html"target = "_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<hr>
President-elect Trump has announced ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his pick for secretary of state. Tillerson's ties to Russia have led to criticism of his nomination by both Republicans and Democrats (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-picks-exxonmobil-ceo-rex-tillerson-for-secretary-of-state/2016/12/12/23ce9c80-c0e3-11e6-897f-918837dae0ae_story.html" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-cabinet-democrats-senate-232136" target = "_blank">Politico</a>)."
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/195" target="_blank">whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/374"target = "_blank">Trump's Immigration Ban</a>.</sub> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-02-01 | Will Rex Tillerson be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state before 30 April 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-05-09 | 2016-12-27 | ["http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/26/white-house-nafta-withdraw-trump-237632", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/26/525701964/wto-says-mexico-can-seek-millions-from-u-s-in-dolphin-safe-tuna-dispute", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-oval-office-desk-red-button-butler-coke-white-house-us-president-a7703056.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/491109", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/latest-schumer-says-budget-talks-must-two-way-121730402--politics.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/30/white-house-calls-for-changing-but-not-scrapping-nafta-in-draft-letter/?utm_term=.811a72a31578&hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-nafta-idUSKBN17S2DG", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/25/news/economy/trump-canada-tariffs/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/443911", "http://www.dailykos.com/stories/1656466", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/five-big-players-steer-trumps-foreign-policy-toward-the-mainstream-1491839286", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/491114", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/us/politics/nafta-executive-order-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "https://qz.com/942713/mexico-is-meeting-with-brazil-and-argentina-on-corn-duty-free-trade-deals-and-calling-donald-trumps-anti-nafta-bluff/", "https://www.ft.com/content/6763a15c-2ad8-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/i-was-all-set-to-terminate-inside-trumps-sudden-shift-on-nafta/2017/04/27/0452a3fa-2b65-11e7-b605-33413c691853_story.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/trump-aides-in-raging-debate-over-how-quickly-to-move-on-nafta", 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["2017-04-26", 0.03], ["2017-04-26", 0.03], ["2017-04-26", 0.03], ["2017-04-26", 0.04], ["2017-04-26", 0.04], ["2017-04-26", 0.04], ["2017-04-27", 0.04], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.04], ["2017-04-27", 0.04], ["2017-04-27", 0.03], ["2017-04-27", 0.03], ["2017-04-27", 0.03], ["2017-04-27", 0.03], ["2017-04-27", 0.03], ["2017-04-27", 0.02], ["2017-04-27", 0.02], ["2017-04-27", 0.02], ["2017-04-28", 0.02], ["2017-04-28", 0.02], ["2017-04-28", 0.02], ["2017-04-28", 0.02], ["2017-04-29", 0.02], ["2017-04-29", 0.02], ["2017-04-30", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377 | Throughout President-elect Trump's campaign, he labeled NAFTA the "worst trade deal in history" and has repeated a commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or withdrawing (<a href ="http://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2016/12/06/nafta-is-here-to-stay-even-under-trump/#5b91a740560f"target = "_blank">Forbes</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/twelve-trump-promises-and-how-he-could-fulfill-them/2016/11/10/214d9a12-a769-11e6-8fc0-7be8f848c492_story.html"target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement"target = "_blank">The NAFTA Secretariat</a>). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, a party can withdraw six months after providing notice (<a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/news/economy/trump-nafta/"target = "_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement?mvid=1&secid=d5a8ba07-1fb2-4f28-88d0-a8eac08611a2"target = "_blank">The NAFTA Secretariat</a>)
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This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-30 | Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-05-01 | 2016-12-27 | ["http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/03/no-deal-donald", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/17/politics/house-obamacare-repeal-thursday/", "http://www.voanews.com/a/president-trump-own-party-hands-him-defeat/3781460.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/21/politics/President-Trump-Latest?lf-content=188682397:[email protected]&hubRefSrc=permalink", "http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-health-care-bill-will-it-pass-the-whip-count/", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2017_schedule.htm", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/us/politics/health-care-affordable-care-act.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-ab-top-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/ryan_favorableunfavorable-3468.html#polls", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/us/politics/health-care-affordable-care-act.html", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/24/politics/house-health-care-vote/", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-repeal-votes-congress-236459?cmpid=sf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/gop-health-care-plan-hangs-in-balance-as-house-leaders-push-for-thursday-floor-vote/2017/03/23/6e8bf05a-0fbd-11e7-9d5a-a83e627dc120_story.html?utm_term=.67feb6534cf9", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/23/politics/trump-health-care-latest/index.html", "http://www.businessinsider.com/quinnipiac-poll-shows-17-percent-of-american-support-trumpcare-ahca-2017-3", "http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-white-house-still-lacks-the-votes-on-1490291939-htmlstory.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/03/27/after-health-care-fiasco-trumps-next-move-may-be-even-more-disastrous/?utm_term=.30d9ed12a649", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-repeal-votes-senate-236417", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/us/politics/affordable-care-act-obamacare-health.html?_r=0", 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part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. Republicans have tried to repeal the ACA many times since it was passed in 2010, but with control of Congress and the presidency they now have the opportunity to act on President-elect Trump's promise to repeal the individual mandate or ACA in its entirety (<a href = "http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501451368/here-is-what-donald-trump-wants-to-do-in-his-first-100-days"target = "_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/25/repealing-and-replacing-obamacare-will-take-time.html"target = "_blank"> CNBC</a>, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/08/politics/obamacare-battle-2017/index.html"target = "_blank"> CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.bna.com/obamacares-individual-mandate-b73014447779/"target = "_blank"> The Bureau of National Affairs</a>). The passage of legislation which prohibits the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate would resolve the question as "yes" (<a href = "https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A"target = "_blank">Legal Information Institute</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/373" target = "_blank"> Rex Tillerson's Confirmation</a> or on the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> U.S withdrawing from NAFTA</a>.</sub>
</hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-29 | Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-02-13 | 2016-12-27 | ["http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2017/01/24/tamil-nadu-traders-will-not-sell-coke-and-pepsi-from-march-1-on/", "https://legiscan.com/AR/rollcall/SB120/id/573473", "http://www.usdebtclock.org/", "http://www.islandpacket.com/news/business/article130301804.html#storylink=cpy", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23460912", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tax", "http://www.arkleg.state.ar.us/assembly/2017/2017R/Pages/BillInformation.aspx?measureno=hb1162", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38767941", "http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/31/health/sugar-tax-obesity/", "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameren-misses-4q-profit-forecasts-131449130.html", "http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/business/worldbusiness/07cnd-soda.html", "http://time.com/4653219/france-ban-soda-refills-fight-obesity/", "http://www.arkleg.state.ar.us/assembly/2017/2017R/Pages/BillInformation.aspx?measureno=SB120", "http://uisjournal.com/features/2017/02/01/illinois-proposes-a-sugar-tax-to-potentially-ease-budget-concerns/", "http://www.paulharrell.com/", "http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2016/curtail-sugary-drinks/en/", "http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/02/gary_taubes_on.html", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209653/", "http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/business/article131254869.html", "http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/business/article131254869.html#storylink=cpy", "http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/coca-cola-ceo-change-muhtar-kent-james-quincey/", "http://stateofobesity.org/healthcare-costs-obesity/", "http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/feb/05/tax-cut-trade-off-in-bill-dismays-anti-/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hf3jf0yUvCs", "http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/ncd/risk_factors/overweight/atlas.html"] | binary | [["2016-12-27", 0.35], ["2016-12-27", 0.7], ["2016-12-27", 0.65], ["2016-12-28", 0.7], ["2016-12-28", 0.675], ["2016-12-28", 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["2017-02-01", 0.45], ["2017-02-01", 0.46], ["2017-02-01", 0.45], ["2017-02-02", 0.485], ["2017-02-02", 0.47], ["2017-02-02", 0.47], ["2017-02-02", 0.45], ["2017-02-02", 0.45], ["2017-02-03", 0.45], ["2017-02-03", 0.46], ["2017-02-03", 0.46], ["2017-02-03", 0.5], ["2017-02-03", 0.525], ["2017-02-03", 0.595], ["2017-02-04", 0.6], ["2017-02-04", 0.6], ["2017-02-04", 0.6], ["2017-02-04", 0.6], ["2017-02-05", 0.625], ["2017-02-05", 0.6], ["2017-02-05", 0.6], ["2017-02-06", 0.65], ["2017-02-06", 0.65], ["2017-02-06", 0.65], ["2017-02-06", 0.65], ["2017-02-07", 0.65], ["2017-02-07", 0.65]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376 | This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 7 February 2017. Arkansas' governor signed into law an increased tax on soda (<a href = "http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/business/article131254869.html"target="_blank">Ledger Enquirer</a>, <a href = "http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/feb/08/governor-signs-into-law-military-pensio/?f=news-arkansas"target="_blank">Arkansas Online</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
With the legal challenges of municipal soda taxes fading away (<a href = "http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20161220_Soda_tax_lawsuit_dismissed.html" target = "_blank">Philly.com</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-soda-tax-idUSKBN1341FL" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-cook-county-soda-pop-tax-vote-met-1111-20161110-story.html"target = "_blank"> Chicago Tribune</a>), some states are considering similar measures (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/well/eat/as-soda-taxes-gain-wider-acceptance-your-bottle-may-be-next.html" target = "_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2016/11/30/massachusetts-soda-tax-latest"target = "_blank">WBUR</a>, <a href = "http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/could_something_like_philadelp.html"target = "_blank"> PennLive</a>). The tax does not need to take effect for a "yes" resolution.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/373" target = "_blank"> Rex Tillerson's Confirmation</a> or on the <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> U.S withdrawing from NAFTA</a>.</sub> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-02-07 | Will a U.S. state enact a soda tax in 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-08 | 2017-01-06 | ["https://www.expouav.com/news/latest/perfect-union-us-regulations-trend-toward-coexistence-uavs-aircraft/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/25/amazon-to-test-drone-delivery-uk-government", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/request_waiver/waiver_safety_explanation_guidelines/", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/airports_participating_in_laanc/", "http://insideunmannedsystems.com/amazon-gets-permission-to-test-delivery-drones-outdoors/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/amazon-s-dream-of-drone-deliveries-get-closer-with-trump-order", "https://www.recode.net/2017/2/9/14462390/trump-freeze-regulation-faa-drone-delivery", "http://www.precisionhawk.com/media/topic/faa-grants-precisionhawk-bvlos-waiver/", "https://www.retail-week.com/topics/technology/amazons-innovation-boss-on-building-autonomous-drones/7025959.article", "http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/09/22/drone-hits-army-helicopter/", "https://jrupprechtlaw.com/amazon-drone-delivery-3-major-legal-problems-amazon-prime-air", "http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=20&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PTXT&s1=%22Amazon+Technologies%22&OS=%22Amazon+Technologies%22&RS=%22Amazon+Technologies%22", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/focus_area_pathfinder/", "http://www.feedstuffs.com/news/applied-aviation-research-center-precisionhawk-continue-uas-collaboration", "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/10/11/2017-21878/request-for-emergency-processing-of-collection-of-information-by-the-office-of-management-and-budget", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/04/10/faa_gives_amazon_permission_to_test_delivery_drones_in_the_u_s.html", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/06/27/drones-would-get-rules-deliveries-traffic-management-under-house-bill/428836001/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/581785", 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["2017-12-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379 | Amazon completed its first drone delivery in the U.K., the debut of its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) shipping service (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/14/amazon-claims-first-successful-prime-air-drone-delivery"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>). U.S. commercial drone rules were finalized at the end of August 2016 (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/uas/media/Part_107_Summary.pdf"target = "_blank">FAA</a>). Among other things, they require operators to maintain visual line of site with the drones (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=20515"target = "_blank">FAA</a>, <a href = "http://fortune.com/2016/06/21/drone-faa-rules-commercial-business/"target = "_blank">Fortune</a>). Since passing the regulation, U.S. regulators have been granting waivers for companies to test drone delivery (<a href = "https://www.faa.gov/uas/request_waiver/waivers_granted/"target = "_blank">FAA</a>). 7-Eleven, which became the first major company to use drones for deliveries in the U.S.,did so without a waiver because its drone operators maintained line of site for short range delivery (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/20/7-eleven-beats-google-and-amazon-to-the-first-regular-commercial-drone-delivery-service-in-the-us.html"target = "_blank">CNBC</a>).
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<hr>
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration did not grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr> | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-05-01 | 2017-01-06 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-coal-idUSKBN1762YY", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-growth-europe-idUSKBN17A0GA", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/28/politics/donald-trump-climate-change-executive-order/", "http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3007567/vatican-urges-trump-to-rethink-climate-policy-attack", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/climate/trump-climate-change.html?_r=0", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-26/state-department-memo-boosts-case-to-stay-in-paris-climate-pact", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/big-coal-companies-press-trump-not-to-leave-climate-deal/article/2619393", "http://www.brecorder.com/2017/03/31/340925/trump-to-decide-on-staying-in-paris-climate-accord-by-may/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/328132-should-us-falter-china-poised-to-capitalize-on-clean", "http://nwpr.org/post/northwest-governors-vow-resist-trump-plans-gut-climate-change-rules", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/21/climate/how-americans-think-about-climate-change-in-six-maps.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/326561-trump-to-decide-whether-to-stay-paris-climate-pact-by-late-may", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-climate-power-idUSKBN1770D8", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-paris-idUSKBN1740NP?il=0", "https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/25780-three-big-coal-companies-ask-trump-to-honor-unratified-paris-climate-agreement", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/us/politics/trump-advisers-paris-climate-accord.html?_r=0", "http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2017/04/14/epa-chief-calls-for-exit-from-paris-climate-agreement/FZ8biW03zq0FLtGnGeqKHO/story.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-climatechange-idUSKBN17J1DN", "https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16032017/us-climate-change-donald-trump-budget-un-unfccc", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/19/top-trump-advisors-at-odds-over-paris-climate-deal/", "http://clicklancashire.com/2017/04/15/us-blocks-g7-climate-statement-as-white-house-waffles-on.html", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-senate-story-that-everyone-is-missing_us_58e810a4e4b06f8c18beebd5", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-mercers-trump-mega-donors-back-group-that-casts-doubt-on-climate-science/2017/03/26/dc1fde86-109b-11e7-9b0d-d27c98455440_story.html?utm_term=.d0e0770f7696", "https://www.ft.com/content/5900978a-136a-11e7-80f4-13e067d5072c", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_G7_summit"] | binary | [["2017-01-06", 0.535], ["2017-01-06", 0.05], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], ["2017-01-06", 0.1], ["2017-01-06", 0.125], ["2017-01-06", 0.15], 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0.25], ["2017-03-22", 0.25], ["2017-03-22", 0.25], ["2017-03-23", 0.25], ["2017-03-24", 0.25], ["2017-03-24", 0.25], ["2017-03-25", 0.25], ["2017-03-25", 0.25], ["2017-03-25", 0.25], ["2017-03-26", 0.25], ["2017-03-26", 0.25], ["2017-03-26", 0.25], ["2017-03-27", 0.25], ["2017-03-27", 0.25], ["2017-03-28", 0.245], ["2017-03-28", 0.25], ["2017-03-28", 0.25], ["2017-03-29", 0.24], ["2017-03-29", 0.24], ["2017-03-30", 0.22], ["2017-03-30", 0.24], ["2017-03-31", 0.22], ["2017-03-31", 0.22], ["2017-03-31", 0.22], ["2017-04-01", 0.22], ["2017-04-01", 0.22], ["2017-04-01", 0.215], ["2017-04-02", 0.21], ["2017-04-02", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.2], ["2017-04-03", 0.2], ["2017-04-04", 0.2], ["2017-04-04", 0.2], ["2017-04-05", 0.2], ["2017-04-05", 0.2], ["2017-04-05", 0.2], ["2017-04-06", 0.2], ["2017-04-06", 0.2], ["2017-04-06", 0.2], ["2017-04-06", 0.2], ["2017-04-07", 0.2], ["2017-04-07", 0.2], ["2017-04-07", 0.2], ["2017-04-08", 0.2], ["2017-04-08", 0.2], ["2017-04-09", 0.17], ["2017-04-09", 0.17], ["2017-04-09", 0.16], ["2017-04-10", 0.15], ["2017-04-10", 0.15], ["2017-04-10", 0.15], ["2017-04-11", 0.15], ["2017-04-11", 0.15], ["2017-04-11", 0.15], ["2017-04-11", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], ["2017-04-13", 0.15], ["2017-04-13", 0.15], ["2017-04-14", 0.15], ["2017-04-14", 0.15], ["2017-04-14", 0.15], ["2017-04-15", 0.15], ["2017-04-15", 0.15], ["2017-04-16", 0.15], ["2017-04-16", 0.15], ["2017-04-17", 0.15], ["2017-04-17", 0.15], ["2017-04-17", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.135], ["2017-04-19", 0.13], ["2017-04-19", 0.13], ["2017-04-19", 0.13], ["2017-04-19", 0.11], ["2017-04-20", 0.11], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-21", 0.1], ["2017-04-21", 0.1], ["2017-04-22", 0.1], ["2017-04-22", 0.1], ["2017-04-22", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-24", 0.1], ["2017-04-24", 0.1], ["2017-04-24", 0.1], ["2017-04-24", 0.1], ["2017-04-24", 0.1], ["2017-04-25", 0.1], ["2017-04-25", 0.1], ["2017-04-26", 0.1], ["2017-04-26", 0.09], ["2017-04-26", 0.08], ["2017-04-26", 0.07], ["2017-04-26", 0.07], ["2017-04-26", 0.07], ["2017-04-26", 0.06], ["2017-04-26", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-29", 0.05], ["2017-04-29", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/378 | The UNFCCC entered into force for the United States in 1994 (<a href = "http://unfccc.int/tools_xml/country_US.html" target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>, <a href = "http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php" target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>). President-elect Donald Trump has cast uncertainty over the future of U.S. policy on climate change (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/02/trump-break-from-paris-climate-deal-unfccc-exit"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.ocregister.com/articles/trump-738643-donald-action.html"target = "_blank">The Orange County Register</a>). Under Article 25 of the UNFCCC agreement, a party can withdraw from the Convention one year after giving notification (<a href = "http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf"target = "_blank">UNFCCC</a>, <a href = "https://treaties.un.org/Pages/CNs.aspx?cnTab=tab1&clang=_en"target = "_blank">UN Treaty Collection</a>).
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<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-29 | Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-10-26 | 2017-01-10 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-election-turkey-idUSKBN16F1CN?il=0", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/rutte-expects-41-seats-in-dutch-vote-giving-him-a-path-to-power", "http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/wilders-whatever-happens-2017-populist-genie-bottle/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39285803", "http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/european-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2904253", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/423997", "http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2017/03/02/why_geert_wilders_loses_112237.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-14/wilders-party-slumps-in-shock-dutch-poll-on-eve-of-election", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-election-idUSKBN15R0IJ", "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000508/pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/446738", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/mar/15/dutch-election-voters-go-to-the-polls-in-the-netherlands-live", "http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/unlike-west-india-and-china-embrace-globalization", "http://gpseducation.oecd.org/CountryProfile?primaryCountry=NLD&treshold=10&topic=PI", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_the_Netherlands", "http://politiek.tpo.nl/2013/09/08/oikofobie-de-angst-voor-het-eigene/", "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-02-07/assad-says-eu-should-have-no-role-in-syrias-reconstruction", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Netherlands", "https://www.predictit.org/home/browse?Search=dutch&isSearch=true", "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434317300250", "http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/netherlands", "http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/qEWiKK2mPCQ1b8696YGxwN/A-role-for-India-in-rebuilding-Syria.html", "http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/oci-and-pio-cards-all-you-need-to-know-4464957/", "https://home.noties.nl/peil/"] | binary | [["2017-01-10", 0.1], ["2017-01-10", 0.075], ["2017-01-10", 0.15], ["2017-01-10", 0.09], ["2017-01-10", 0.09], ["2017-01-10", 0.1], ["2017-01-10", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.09], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.09], ["2017-01-11", 0.095], ["2017-01-11", 0.095], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.105], ["2017-01-11", 0.11], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-12", 0.1], ["2017-01-12", 0.08], ["2017-01-12", 0.09], ["2017-01-12", 0.08], ["2017-01-12", 0.065], ["2017-01-12", 0.07], ["2017-01-12", 0.075], ["2017-01-13", 0.08], ["2017-01-13", 0.06], ["2017-01-13", 0.055], ["2017-01-13", 0.055], ["2017-01-13", 0.06], ["2017-01-13", 0.085], ["2017-01-13", 0.095], ["2017-01-14", 0.09], ["2017-01-14", 0.07], ["2017-01-14", 0.06], ["2017-01-14", 0.06], ["2017-01-15", 0.06], ["2017-01-15", 0.09], 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["2017-01-22", 0.1], ["2017-01-22", 0.1], ["2017-01-22", 0.1], ["2017-01-22", 0.1], ["2017-01-22", 0.1], ["2017-01-23", 0.1], ["2017-01-23", 0.1], ["2017-01-23", 0.1], ["2017-01-23", 0.1], ["2017-01-23", 0.1], ["2017-01-23", 0.1], ["2017-01-24", 0.1], ["2017-01-24", 0.1], ["2017-01-24", 0.1], ["2017-01-24", 0.1], ["2017-01-24", 0.1], ["2017-01-25", 0.1], ["2017-01-26", 0.1], ["2017-01-26", 0.105], ["2017-01-26", 0.115], ["2017-01-27", 0.11], ["2017-01-28", 0.115], ["2017-01-28", 0.105], ["2017-01-28", 0.1], ["2017-01-28", 0.115], ["2017-01-28", 0.115], ["2017-01-29", 0.115], ["2017-01-29", 0.105], ["2017-01-29", 0.105], ["2017-01-29", 0.1], ["2017-01-30", 0.1], ["2017-01-30", 0.11], ["2017-01-31", 0.1], ["2017-01-31", 0.1], ["2017-02-01", 0.11], ["2017-02-01", 0.105], ["2017-02-01", 0.1], ["2017-02-02", 0.1], ["2017-02-02", 0.1], ["2017-02-02", 0.1], ["2017-02-02", 0.1], ["2017-02-03", 0.1], ["2017-02-03", 0.1], ["2017-02-04", 0.1], ["2017-02-05", 0.1], ["2017-02-05", 0.1], ["2017-02-05", 0.1], ["2017-02-06", 0.1], ["2017-02-06", 0.1], ["2017-02-06", 0.1], ["2017-02-06", 0.1], ["2017-02-07", 0.1], ["2017-02-07", 0.1], ["2017-02-08", 0.1], ["2017-02-09", 0.1], ["2017-02-09", 0.1], ["2017-02-09", 0.1], ["2017-02-10", 0.1], ["2017-02-10", 0.1], ["2017-02-12", 0.1], ["2017-02-12", 0.105], ["2017-02-12", 0.105], ["2017-02-13", 0.11], ["2017-02-14", 0.105], ["2017-02-14", 0.1], ["2017-02-15", 0.1], ["2017-02-15", 0.1], ["2017-02-15", 0.1], ["2017-02-16", 0.1], ["2017-02-16", 0.1], ["2017-02-16", 0.1], ["2017-02-17", 0.1], ["2017-02-17", 0.1], ["2017-02-17", 0.1], ["2017-02-18", 0.1], ["2017-02-18", 0.1], ["2017-02-19", 0.1], ["2017-02-19", 0.1], ["2017-02-20", 0.1], ["2017-02-20", 0.1], ["2017-02-21", 0.1], ["2017-02-21", 0.1], ["2017-02-22", 0.1], ["2017-02-22", 0.1], ["2017-02-23", 0.1], ["2017-02-23", 0.1], ["2017-02-23", 0.1], ["2017-02-24", 0.1], ["2017-02-25", 0.1], ["2017-02-26", 0.1], ["2017-02-26", 0.1], ["2017-02-27", 0.1], ["2017-02-27", 0.1], ["2017-02-27", 0.09], ["2017-02-28", 0.09], ["2017-02-28", 0.085], ["2017-02-28", 0.09], ["2017-02-28", 0.095], ["2017-03-01", 0.1], ["2017-03-02", 0.09], ["2017-03-02", 0.09], ["2017-03-03", 0.09], ["2017-03-03", 0.09], ["2017-03-03", 0.09], ["2017-03-03", 0.08], ["2017-03-03", 0.07], ["2017-03-04", 0.08], ["2017-03-04", 0.06], ["2017-03-04", 0.055], ["2017-03-05", 0.055], ["2017-03-05", 0.055], ["2017-03-05", 0.05], ["2017-03-05", 0.05], ["2017-03-05", 0.05], ["2017-03-06", 0.05], ["2017-03-06", 0.05], ["2017-03-07", 0.05], ["2017-03-07", 0.05], ["2017-03-07", 0.05], ["2017-03-08", 0.05], ["2017-03-08", 0.05], ["2017-03-08", 0.05], ["2017-03-08", 0.05], ["2017-03-09", 0.05], ["2017-03-10", 0.05], ["2017-03-11", 0.05], ["2017-03-11", 0.05], ["2017-03-12", 0.05], ["2017-03-12", 0.05], ["2017-03-12", 0.05], ["2017-03-12", 0.05], ["2017-03-12", 0.05], ["2017-03-13", 0.05], ["2017-03-13", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-14", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.05], ["2017-03-15", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/382 | The Netherlands is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 15 March 2017 and Geert Wilders, the head of the Freedom Party (PVV), has been ahead in the polls (<a href = "http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/741449/geert-wilders-freedom-party-election-polls-ahead-eu"target = "_blank">Express UK<a/>). If no government is formed after the March elections and subsequent elections are scheduled, the question will resolve as "no."
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<hr>
As of 3 October, the Dutch government is still being formed, and a prime minister has not yet been decided. This question will be scored when a prime minister is announced.
<hr>
Geert Wilders did not become prime minister. (<a href = "http://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-officially-asked-to-form-new-dutch-government/"target="_blank">Politico</a>) This question closed as “b) No,” with and end date of 15 March 2017.
</hr>
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-03-15 | Will Geert Wilders become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-01-25 | 2017-01-10 | ["http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/427748", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38219928", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2016-0196-judgment.pdf", "https://www.ft.com/content/6f771e04-8135-3bbc-82eb-21018ff18e55", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/11/government-brexit-supreme-court-theresa-may-article-50", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/24/supreme-court-article-50-judgement-announces-its-article-50-judgment-politics-live", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/access-arrangements-for-24-january-article-50-brexit-judgment.html", "https://www.headoflegal.com/2016/11/04/why-the-high-court-got-the-law-wrong-about-brexit/", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/03/high-court-brexit-ruling-what-does-it-all-mean", "http://www.legalcheek.com/2016/12/the-bookies-odds-will-the-supreme-court-overturn-the-high-courts-brexit-ruling/", "http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/brexit-exit-poll"", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/733479/Article-50-appeal-when-is-hearing-dates-Supreme-Court-what-means-Brexit-EU-exit/amp", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38200115", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/supreme-court-brexit-case-explained-9392428", "http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/future-judgments.html", "http://www.euroexchangeratenews.co.uk/investors-profiting-brexit-speech-pound-exchange-rates-22823", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/who-supreme-court-judges-brexit-9391170?service=responsive", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38720320", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/the-supreme-court-annual-report-and-accounts.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/18/supreme-court-to-deliver-brexit-ruling-24-january", "https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/article-50-brexit-appeal.html"] | binary | [["2017-01-11", 0.95], ["2017-01-11", 0.85], ["2017-01-11", 0.9], ["2017-01-11", 0.875], ["2017-01-11", 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["2017-01-22", 0.88], ["2017-01-22", 0.88], ["2017-01-22", 0.88], ["2017-01-22", 0.88], ["2017-01-22", 0.9], ["2017-01-22", 0.9], ["2017-01-22", 0.89], ["2017-01-23", 0.89], ["2017-01-23", 0.9], ["2017-01-23", 0.9], ["2017-01-23", 0.9], ["2017-01-23", 0.9], ["2017-01-23", 0.9], ["2017-01-23", 0.9], ["2017-01-23", 0.9], ["2017-01-23", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/381 | This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 23 January 2017. The Supreme Court ruled that an act of Parliament was required to invoke Article 50 (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38720320"target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/24/world/europe/theresa-may-brexit-vote-article-50.html"target = "_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<hr>
The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016 and Prime Minister May has planned to begin that process by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, but a recent High Court ruling stipulated that the government could not do so without an additional act of Parliament (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37857785"target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-legal-challenge-set-for-court-ruling-1478159686"target = "_blank">Wall Street Journal, <a href="https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/judgments/r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union/"target = "_blank">Judiciary UK</a>). The government appealed the High Court's ruling and the Supreme Court is now is expected to issue its decision in January (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38200115"target = "_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-governments-brexit-plans-in-hands-of-supreme-court/2016/12/05/665f96a8-baa8-11e6-ae79-bec72d34f8c9_story.html?utm_term=.b82abf0d6a82"target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>). Rulings pertaining to the devolved parliaments of Wales, Northern Ireland, or Scotland will not affect the resolution of this question.
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<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/238-when-will-the-united-kingdom-invoke-article-50-of-the-lisbon-treaty"target = "_blank">when the UK will invoke Article 50</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/237"target = "_blank">any other European Union (EU) member state will set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU</a>.</sub>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-01-23 | Before 15 February 2017, will the United Kingdom's Supreme Court rule that an additional act of the U.K. Parliament is required to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-08 | 2017-01-16 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-idUSKCN1AX0RG", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-merkel/in-shift-merkel-backs-end-to-eu-turkey-membership-talks-idUSKCN1BE15B?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-parliament-idUSKBN19R194", "https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/04/10/ewb-interview-genoveva-ruiz-calavera-eu-accession-process-is-strategic-investment-in-peace/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/495893", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/09/08/534495/Turkey-EU-children-game", "https://www.rferl.org/a/macedonia-at-a-crossroad-explainer-violence/28457721.html", "https://www.dailysabah.com/eu-affairs/2017/10/15/turkey-determined-to-maintain-eu-membership-goals-deputy-pm-says", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-minister-idUSKBN1871XA", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-turkey/in-warning-to-ankara-eu-cuts-funds-for-turkeys-membership-bid-idUSKBN1DU2D4", "http://www.dw.com/en/erdogan-turkey-no-longer-needs-eu-membership-but-will-not-abandon-talks/a-40771731", "http://alde.eu/en/news/957-respect-of-human-rights-and-the-rule-of-law-must-be-at-the-core-of-the-new-eu-turkey-agenda/", "https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/05/03/hahn-if-the-violence-occurs-again-it-will-endanger-macedonias-path-to-the-eu/", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/most-eu-hopefuls-might-not-be-ready-to-join-before-2050-study-finds/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/495910", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union#Recent_developments", "http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/politics/2017/05/09/turkey-desires-to-continue-process-of-eu-accession-erdog_c6a290d6-617b-477f-b019-7939715b091c.html", "http://www.politico.eu/article/albania-prime-minister-edi-rama-eu-faces-nightmare-if-balkans-denied/", "http://www.politico.eu/article/euroskeptic-young-europeans-poll-yougov-youths-eu/", 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["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/386 | Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are official candidates for EU membership (<a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining/index_en.htm"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>). In March 2015, Iceland withdrew from the EU membership process (<a href = "http://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/iceland-officially-drops-eu-membership-bid/"target = "_blank">Euractiv</a>, <a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/detailed-country-information/iceland/index_en.htm"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>), and the UK's vote to leave the EU has heightened concerns that enlargement may stall.
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<hr>
Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia did not announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-08 | 2017-01-16 | ["https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/03/02/bih-citizens-offer-395-ansers-to-questions-from-ec-questionnaire/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-08/brexit-talks-where-will-the-eu-red-lines-be-after-article-50", "http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/img/Target2%20graph%20-%20%20ecb%20data%20-%20large.jpg", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-accepts-membership-application-from-bosnia-and-herzegovina-a7319841.html", "https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/869433723867062272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fworld%2F2017%2F5%2F30%2F15712140%2Frussia-ukraine-twitter-fight-simpsons-gif", "http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20170131IPR60322/foreign-affairs-meps-assess-reform-efforts-in-albania-and-bosnia-and-herzegovina", "http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2017/04/02/serbia-powerful-leader-claims-landslide-presidential-win/0gDwMKCIBwA9IC45F63gUL/story.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11283616", "http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=I134282", "https://www.eureporter.co/frontpage/2017/01/11/bih-is-eu-membership-for-montenegro-bosnia-and-herzegovina-really-worth-it/", "https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2984587/jean-claude-junckers-desperate-five-path-plan-to-try-and-save-the-eu-after-brexit-revealed-which-sent-shockwaves-through-brussels/", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/scotlands-economic-case-for-independence-must-be-politically-bomb-proof.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-27/how-brexit-means-eu-loses-money-influence-and-military-strength", "http://time.com/4504010/europe-politics-swing-right/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-serbia-germany-idUSKBN17E2B0", "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/countries/check-current-status_en", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzM5Ar55KPE", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Politics", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-inauguration-idUSKBN1540I0", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/07/c_136347965.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit-balkans-idUSKBN16G32S", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-eurozone-idUKKBN1542KL", "https://seenews.com/news/eu-parliament-points-to-need-for-bosnia-to-remain-united-558183#sthash.zfmTQG7l.dpuf", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/12/iceland-drops-european-union-membership-bid", "http://vijesti.hrt.hr/374522/vecina-europarlamentaraca-u-raspravi-podrzala-izvjesce-o-bih"] | binary | [["2017-01-17", 0.45], ["2017-01-17", 0.325], ["2017-01-17", 0.18], ["2017-01-18", 0.15], ["2017-01-18", 0.2], ["2017-01-18", 0.25], ["2017-01-18", 0.25], ["2017-01-18", 0.235], ["2017-01-18", 0.2], ["2017-01-18", 0.18], ["2017-01-18", 0.165], ["2017-01-19", 0.165], ["2017-01-19", 0.15], ["2017-01-19", 0.125], ["2017-01-19", 0.125], ["2017-01-19", 0.125], ["2017-01-19", 0.1], ["2017-01-19", 0.1], ["2017-01-20", 0.1], 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["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/387 | Albania and Macedonia are both candidate countries for EU membership, but neither has begun the formal membership negotiations that must conclude in order for the country to join; Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo have been told that they can become candidate countries when they are ready (<a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/check-current-status/index_en.htm"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>). For more information on the accession process see: <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining_en"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>.
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<hr>
The European Council did not announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-04-10 | 2017-01-17 | ["https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-expected-to-confirm-neil-gorsuch-as-supreme-court-justice-1491557404", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-08/gorsuch-approved-us-senate-supreme-court-justice/8427504", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/senate-confirms-neil-gorsuch_us_58e7a139e4b05413bfe244ca?mas&", "http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/04/02/mcconnell_says_neil_gorsuch_will_be_confirmed_to_supreme_court_this_week.html", "http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/326625-grassley-gorsuch-will-fall-short-of-60-votes", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/07/politics/gorsuch-confirmation-live/", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-found-the-votes-on-gorsuch-now-can-the-gop/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/politics/neil-gorsuch-supreme-court.html?_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/478098", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/10/watch-live-neil-gorsuch-supreme-court-swearing-in/100275986/", "https://decisiondeskhq.com/vote-tracker/estimating-cloture-count-for-supreme-court-nominee-neil-gorsuch/", "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/democrats-go-to-war-over-neil-gorsuch/521268/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-gorsuch-idUSKBN1740NH", "https://www.yahoo.com/style/one-woman-made-neil-gorsuchs-confirmation-anything-but-inevitable-165544513.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWA2pjMjpBs", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/07/politics/neil-gorsuch-senate-vote/", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/13/us/how-long-does-it-take-to-confirm-a-supreme-court-nominee.html?_r=0", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/02/mcconnell-vows-gorsuch-will-be-confirmed-this-week-schumer-predicts-wont-get-60-votes.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/388-will-a-new-supreme-court-justice-be-confirmed-before-30-april-2017/www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/04/02/mcconnell_says_neil_gorsuch_will_be_confirmed_to_supreme_court_this_week.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/us/politics/neil-gorsuch-supreme-court-senate.html?_r=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/29/one-third-of-all-u-s-presidents-appointed-a-supreme-court-justice-in-an-election-year/?utm_term=.1dd6c2de45df", "https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/nov/01/republican-senators-oppose-clinton-supreme-court-nominee", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/06/what-is-nuclear-option-how-mcconnell-plans-to-get-gorsuch-confirmed.html", "http://www.npr.org/2017/04/03/522225063/the-senate-could-go-nuclear-this-week-what-does-that-mean", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/senate-set-to-confirm-neil-gorsuch-to-supreme-court/2017/04/07/da3cd738-1b89-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html?utm_term=.125c15524e56"] | binary | [["2017-01-17", 0.25], ["2017-01-17", 0.76], ["2017-01-17", 0.82], ["2017-01-17", 0.8], ["2017-01-17", 0.7], ["2017-01-17", 0.62], ["2017-01-18", 0.62], ["2017-01-18", 0.65], ["2017-01-18", 0.66], ["2017-01-18", 0.67], 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["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.86], ["2017-04-06", 0.86], ["2017-04-06", 0.86], ["2017-04-06", 0.87], ["2017-04-06", 0.87], ["2017-04-06", 0.87], ["2017-04-06", 0.875], ["2017-04-06", 0.88], ["2017-04-07", 0.88], ["2017-04-07", 0.89], ["2017-04-07", 0.89], ["2017-04-07", 0.89], ["2017-04-07", 0.9], ["2017-04-07", 0.9], ["2017-04-07", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/388 | The United States Supreme Court has had one vacant seat since the February 2016 death of Antonin Scalia. Appointing a new justice will be one of the first big tasks of the Trump administration (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2017/article/12602/trumpquake"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377"target = "_blank"> the U.S. will provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/363"target = "_blank">the Dakota Access Pipeline will begin transporting oil before January 2018?</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 7 April 2017 (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-gorsuch-confirmed-20170407-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN1791GR"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-07 | Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-03-15 | 2017-01-24 | ["http://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-potential-successors-as-chancellor/g-42213336", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42802300", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/09/martin-schulz-exits-coalition-bid-stave-revolt/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/26/angela-merkel-cdu-to-vote-on-german-coalition-deal", "https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2018/02/26/angela-merkel-about-pay-for-all-her-blunders/gpuSOeFGvGt0Mf6SUDrDyM/story.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myVzaR8cmDA", "http://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-new-german-coalition-deal-will-be-good-for-eu/a-42689786", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uc4DI-BF28", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO2n7QoyieM", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/18/spd-has-no-plan-members-reject-merkel-coalition-deal/", "https://youtu.be/pAO0ib8a0dU", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/923154/European-Union-news-Germany-Angela-Merkel-EU-UK-Brexit-latest", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlAZV_EsSSE", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/20/dog-gets-vote-whether-merkel-can-form-new-german-government/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/senior-german-conservatives-urge-shift-to-right-as-merkel-picks-cabinet-idUSKCN1G80MW", "http://www.bradycampaign.org/key-gun-violence-statistics", "http://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-2017-surplus-and-gdp-growth/a-42706491", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/merkel-s-final-barrier-to-historic-fourth-term-has-a-name-kevin", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/merkel-upsets-just-about-everyone-with-latest-eu-refugee-plan", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWN65nAkk20", "http://www.dw.com/en/prospect-of-new-grand-coalition-threatens-to-split-germanys-spd/a-42139207", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/24/germany-spd-social-democratic-party-coalition-deal-momentum-cdu", 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["2018-01-10", 0.99], ["2018-01-11", 0.99], ["2018-01-12", 0.99], ["2018-01-12", 0.99], ["2018-01-12", 0.99], ["2018-01-13", 0.99], ["2018-01-14", 0.99], ["2018-01-14", 0.99], ["2018-01-15", 0.99], ["2018-01-17", 0.99], ["2018-01-18", 0.99], ["2018-01-19", 0.99], ["2018-01-19", 0.99], ["2018-01-20", 0.99], ["2018-01-21", 0.99], ["2018-01-21", 0.99], ["2018-01-21", 0.99], ["2018-01-22", 0.99], ["2018-01-23", 0.99], ["2018-01-24", 0.99], ["2018-01-24", 0.99], ["2018-01-24", 0.99], ["2018-01-25", 0.99], ["2018-01-27", 0.99], ["2018-01-29", 0.99], ["2018-01-30", 0.99], ["2018-01-31", 0.99], ["2018-02-01", 0.99], ["2018-02-03", 0.99], ["2018-02-04", 0.99], ["2018-02-06", 0.99], ["2018-02-06", 0.99], ["2018-02-07", 0.99], ["2018-02-07", 0.99], ["2018-02-08", 0.99], ["2018-02-09", 0.99], ["2018-02-09", 0.99], ["2018-02-10", 0.99], ["2018-02-10", 0.99], ["2018-02-11", 0.99], ["2018-02-12", 0.99], ["2018-02-12", 0.99], ["2018-02-13", 0.99], ["2018-02-13", 0.99], ["2018-02-14", 0.99], ["2018-02-14", 0.99], ["2018-02-16", 0.99], ["2018-02-18", 0.99], ["2018-02-19", 0.99], ["2018-02-21", 0.99], ["2018-02-23", 0.99], ["2018-02-25", 0.99], ["2018-02-27", 0.99], ["2018-02-28", 0.99], ["2018-03-01", 0.99], ["2018-03-03", 0.99], ["2018-03-03", 0.99], ["2018-03-04", 0.99], ["2018-03-04", 0.99], ["2018-03-04", 0.99], ["2018-03-05", 0.99], ["2018-03-05", 0.99], ["2018-03-06", 0.99], ["2018-03-08", 0.99], ["2018-03-12", 0.99], ["2018-03-12", 0.99], ["2018-03-14", 0.99], ["2018-03-14", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/391 | Angela Merkel, the current chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union party, announced that she would seek re-election in 2017 (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/20/angela-merkel-expected-stand-for-re-election-germany"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/angela-merkel-to-stand-for-re-election-as-german-chancellor-1479650799"target = "_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/germanys-merkel-set-to-win-fourth-term-in-a-messy-election-analyst.html"target = "_blank">CNBC</a>). Gemany will hold federal elections in 2017, after which the new Bundestag will elect the chancellor (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-09-21/how-germany-s-election-system-works-what-to-watch-for-today"target = "_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/bundestag-elections-2017-an-overview-of-all-the-changes-to-national-politics/a-19548800"target = "_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>).
<b>Clarification:</b> This question will remain open until Germany's Bundestag elects the Chancellor or a new election is called.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/383-when-will-the-next-italian-general-election-occur"target = "_blank">when the next Italian General Election will occur</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/353-before-1-october-2017-will-ban-ki-moon-announce-that-he-is-running-for-president-of-south-korea"target = "_blank">Ban Ki Moon will announce that he is running for President of South Korea</a>.</sub>
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Angela Merkel was elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election (<a href = "https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/europe/merkel-chancellor-fourth-term-germany-intl/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>). This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 14 March 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-03-14 | Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-10-04 | 2017-01-24 | ["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4481591/", "http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/341748-fda-votes-to-recommend-gene-therapy-leukemia-treatment", "http://ir.sparktx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=253900&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2286691", "http://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/Regulatory-Safety/US-FDA-to-decide-on-Spark-s-ocular-gene-therapy-Luxturna-in-January", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gilead-sciences-fda/u-s-fda-approves-gilead-cancer-gene-therapy-price-set-at-373000-idUSKBN1CN35H", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/cancer-breakthrough-heralds-new-era-of-cures-costs-and-choices", "https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/car-t-leukemia-cancer-gene-therapy-fda/G", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/acute-promyelocytic-leukemia#inheritance", "https://pharmaphorum.com/news/spark-gene-therapy-fda/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/health-41094990", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/cytogenetically-normal-acute-myeloid-leukemia#inheritance", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4076850-spark-therapeutics-upcoming-fda-catalyst", "http://nationalcmlsociety.org/faq/general-leukemia-questions/leukemia-inherited", "https://www.fda.gov/forpatients/approvals/fast/ucm405405.htm", "http://blogs.plos.org/dnascience/2017/07/20/luxturna-a-giant-step-forward-for-blindness-gene-therapy-a-conversation-with-dr-kathy-high/", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition", "https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/primer/mutationsanddisorders/predisposition", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/health/gene-therapy-cancer.html?mcubz=1&_r=0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acute_lymphoblastic_leukemia#Cause", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-gene-editing-idUSKBN1AC0CM", "https://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm574058.htm", "http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-clears-living-drug-tough-childhood-leukemia-49513403", "https://www.newscientist.com/article/2146048-pioneering-gene-therapy-approved-for-leukaemia-in-the-us/", 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2016, meant to accelerate the discovery, development, and delivery of new cures (<a href = "https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/6/text"target = "_blank">US Congress</a>). Spark Therapeutics could become the first company to receive FDA approval to sell a gene-therapy treatment in the U.S. (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12776/gene-ius-treatments"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602625/gene-therapy-in-us-is-on-track-for-approval-as-early-as-next-year/"target = "_blank">Technology Review</a>, <a href = "http://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/CellularGeneTherapyProducts/"target = "_blank">FDA Cellular Gene Therapy Products</a>, <a href = "http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v537/n7619_supp/full/537S57a.html"target = "_blank">Nature Journal</a>, <a href = "http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/"target = "_blank">FDA Development Approval Process</a>).
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017"target = "_blank">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379-before-1-january-2018-will-the-u-s-federal-aviation-administration-grant-a-waiver-allowing-amazon-to-test-its-unmanned-aerial-vehicles"target = "_blank">the FAA will grant Amazon a waiver to begin testing UAV delivery systems</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Although the FDA approved the sale of a new gene therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, they did not approve the sale of any gene therapy for inherited diseases. This question closed "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
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<hr> | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-10-01 | Before 1 October 2017, will the FDA approve the sale of a gene-therapy treatment for inherited diseases? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-01-24 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-philippines-idUSKBN1AL05R", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-vietnam-idUSKCN18H02B", "http://www.india.com/news/agencies/with-tpp-gone-rcep-is-now-more-urgent-malaysian-pm-1988910/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/agreeing-on-china-s-favorite-trade-deal-set-to-drag-into-2018", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?fine-tuning-rcep-could-take-till", "http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2017-07/20/content_41252164.htm", "http://bilaterals.org/?regional-comprehensive-economic", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?chileans-protest-bid-to-revive", "http://www.livemint.com/Politics/m7oHka4DBZoNIlfabyStCP/RCEP-talks-hit-a-snag-over-Indias-demand-for-liberalization.html", "http://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/280617/rcep-pact-700-officials-from-16-nations-to-meet-in-hyderabad.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-10/fed-rate-hikes-raise-risks-for-asian-nations-swimming-in-debt", "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-trade-india-analysis-42c18c34-1ba5-11e7-855e-4824bbb5d748-20170407-story.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-silkroad-india-idUSKBN18A07L", "http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jCOfYtaeoNwunvvYKEx3RO/Bumps-in-the-road-for-IndiaUS-trade.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-26/pboc-s-zhou-signals-financial-opening-will-require-negotiation", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?asean-members-reaffirm-90-per-cent", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-singapore-trade-idUSKBN1930RR", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/27/business/16-nation-rcep-talks-resume-wake-tpps-demise/#.WPsRXYjyuUk", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-summit-trade-idUSKBN17S0T2", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-02/go-slow-india-may-water-down-china-championed-asia-trade-pact", "http://www.bilaterals.org/?rcep-misses-deadline-again", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/askst-will-the-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-conclude-this-year", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/03/23/business/head-asia-trade-talks-warns-adding-elements-trump-derailed-tpp-new-pact/", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/will-rcep-be-a-reality-by-the-end-of-2017", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/469126"] | binary | [["2017-01-24", 0.475], ["2017-01-24", 0.7], ["2017-01-24", 0.775], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.35], ["2017-01-25", 0.25], ["2017-01-26", 0.375], ["2017-01-26", 0.375], ["2017-01-27", 0.25], ["2017-01-28", 0.125], ["2017-01-28", 0.1], ["2017-01-29", 0.1], ["2017-01-29", 0.14], ["2017-01-30", 0.15], ["2017-01-30", 0.23], ["2017-01-30", 0.275], ["2017-01-31", 0.3], ["2017-02-01", 0.325], ["2017-02-02", 0.425], ["2017-02-02", 0.425], ["2017-02-03", 0.4], ["2017-02-04", 0.34], ["2017-02-05", 0.315], ["2017-02-05", 0.31], ["2017-02-06", 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["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/390 | RCEP is a regional trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (<a href = "https://aric.adb.org/fta/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership"target = "_blank">Asia Regional Integration Center</a>, <a href = "http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2060041/trump-kills-tpp-can-china-backed-rcep-fill-gap"target = "_blank">South China Morning Post</a>). Countries participating in the trade initiative failed to conclude a deal in 2016 but have indicated a work plan for 2017 is forthcoming (<a href = "http://www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges/news/asia-pacific-japan-ratifies-tpp-rcep-gears-up-for-2017"target = "_blank">International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development</a>, <a href = "http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/12/17/asean-wants-a-rcep-trade-deal-by-the-2016-deadline/"target = "_blank">The Star</a>). A "yes" resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required.
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Negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) were not completed in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-07-06 | 2017-01-24 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/opinion/how-venezuela-can-avoid-suspension-from-the-oas.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-snap-stocks-idUSKBN19V2LT", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-venezuela-sanctions-idUSKBN15T1KN", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/319798-trump-calls-for-venezuela-to-release-political-prisoner-leopoldo", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN19T0IH", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-venezuela-politics-party-idUKKBN15717F", "https://twitter.com/juancgutierrezc", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39000333", "https://www.opendemocracy.net/democraciaabierta/cecile-rossi/venezuela-s-silenced-voices", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-venezuela-idUSKBN15V01F?il=0", "http://www.prensa.com/mundo/sentencia-leopoldo-lopez-documento-completo_LPRFIL20151014_0001.pdf", "http://www.lasamericasnews.com/index.php/es/noticias-es/internacional/9668-maduro-aclara-que-bromeaba-con-canje-y-descarta-indultar-a-leopoldo-lopez", "http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/444834/pope-francis-and-venezuela-throwing-another-tyranny-lifeline", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-protests-looting-1.4081510", "https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701251049979328-venezuela-wants-normalize-usa-relations/", "http://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2017/03/13/pese-a-las-amenazas-del-regimen-de-maduro-el-partido-de-leopoldo-lopez-culmino-su-proceso-de-validacion-ante-el-consejo-electoral/", "http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article127206789.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopoldo_L%C3%B3pez", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempto_Controlled_English#Simple_sentences", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oas-idUSKBN16Y20J"] | binary | [["2017-01-24", 0.1], ["2017-01-24", 0.475], ["2017-01-24", 0.35], ["2017-01-24", 0.285], 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["2017-06-17", 0.0], ["2017-06-18", 0.0], ["2017-06-18", 0.0], ["2017-06-18", 0.0], ["2017-06-19", 0.0], ["2017-06-19", 0.0], ["2017-06-20", 0.0], ["2017-06-21", 0.0], ["2017-06-22", 0.0], ["2017-06-23", 0.0], ["2017-06-24", 0.0], ["2017-06-24", 0.0], ["2017-06-24", 0.0], ["2017-06-25", 0.0], ["2017-06-25", 0.0], ["2017-06-26", 0.0], ["2017-06-26", 0.0], ["2017-06-27", 0.0], ["2017-06-28", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/389 | Leopoldo Lopez, a member of Venezuela's opposition, has been imprisoned since 2014 (<a href= "http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/27/the-making-of-leopoldo-lopez-democratic-venezuela-opposition/"target = "_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/venezuelan-court-upholds-14-year-jail-term-given-to-opposition-l/"target = "_blank">UK Telegraph</a>). The release of Lopez and other political prisoners is one of the issues being discussed in the Vatican-sponsored negotiations between President Maduro and the opposition (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21709580-vatican-sponsored-talks-are-more-promising-they-look-what-be-done-venezuela"target = "_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/01/11/Venezuelan-opposition-demands-Maduro-comply-with-previous-agreements/6941484155676/"target = "_blank">United Press International</a>, <a href = "http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2429411&CategoryId=10717"target = "_blank">Latin America Herald Tribune</a>).
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<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/382"target = "_blank">Geert Wilders will become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections?</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/357"target = "_blank">a date will be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom before 1 July 2017</a>.</sub>
<hr>
There is no evidence that Leopoldo Lopez was released from prison. This question closed as "b) No" with and end date of 30 June 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Will Leopoldo Lopez be released from prison before 1 July 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-05-02 | 2017-02-03 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-exclusive-idUSKBN1622J5", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/15/donald-trump-tax-reform-gop/", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/322971-flake-becomes-latest-gop-senator-to-raise-concerns-about-border-tax-proposal", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/us/politics/trump-border-tax-import-koch.html", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2017_schedule.htm", "https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/donald-trump-signals-move-to-border-adjustment-tax-1.2989769", "http://fortune.com/2016/11/07/us-tariff-chinese-steel/", "http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/donald-trump-signals-timing-of-border-tax-20170228-gumz7e#ixzz4ayfSF9wX", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trump-tax-idUKKBN16Q0AD", "http://www.wsj.com/graphics/border-tax/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-probe-could-hurt-donald-trumps-clout-in-congress-1490053226", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/25/republicans-switch-focus-tax-healthcare-plans-collapse/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/02/23/us-uk-must-target-law-firms-facilitating-african-corruption/#f008eba12289", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade-idUSKBN168397", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/03/06/congress-should-focus-on-proven-pro-growth-tax-reform-not-the-border-adjustment-tax/#19c34f0f8366", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-28/ryan-said-to-forge-unexpected-alliance-with-bannon-on-border-tax", "https://www.axios.com/trump-econ-advisor-no-go-on-house-border-adjustment-tax-2282642439.html", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/25/republicans-taxes-healthcare-bill/", "http://www.house.gov/legislative/", "https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-02-24/trump-signals-support-for-border-adjustment-tax-plan-pushed-by-house-republicans", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/24/news/economy/tax-reform-mnuchin/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/27/us/politics/trump-concedes-health-law-overhaul-is-unbelievably-complex.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/27/news/economy/border-adjustment-tax-trump-trump-congress/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/opinion/the-case-for-a-border-adjusted-tax.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_disjunction"] | binary | [["2017-02-03", 0.3], ["2017-02-03", 0.325], ["2017-02-03", 0.55], ["2017-02-03", 0.525], ["2017-02-03", 0.275], ["2017-02-03", 0.35], ["2017-02-03", 0.13], ["2017-02-03", 0.05], ["2017-02-03", 0.03], ["2017-02-03", 0.04], ["2017-02-04", 0.05], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02-04", 0.225], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02-04", 0.2], ["2017-02-04", 0.19], ["2017-02-04", 0.165], ["2017-02-04", 0.15], ["2017-02-04", 0.135], ["2017-02-04", 0.12], ["2017-02-04", 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["2017-04-24", 0.0], ["2017-04-24", 0.0], ["2017-04-25", 0.0], ["2017-04-25", 0.0], ["2017-04-25", 0.0], ["2017-04-25", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-26", 0.0], ["2017-04-27", 0.0], ["2017-04-27", 0.0], ["2017-04-27", 0.0], ["2017-04-27", 0.0], ["2017-04-27", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-28", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0], ["2017-04-29", 0.0], ["2017-04-30", 0.0], ["2017-04-30", 0.0], ["2017-04-30", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/405 | In a June 2016 tax reform blueprint, House Republicans proposed a “border adjustment tax,” a tax levied on imported goods (<a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtodd/2017/01/17/what-is-a-border-adjustment-tax/#3dc8e88d1d47"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). Such a tax is supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan, among others , but has been criticized by President Trump and other leaders (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/10/what-is-a-border-adjusted-tax-mean-and-will-it-happen.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-18/trump-is-right-border-adjustment-tax-is-complicated"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2016/12/08/border-adjustability-is-already-fueling-tax-reform-controversy/#3d4407c942bb"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). A border adjustment tax on specific countries or industries will count. The tax does not need to take effect or become law for a "yes” resolution.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/370"target="_blank">whether Russia and Cuba will announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/377-before-30-april-2017-will-the-u-s-provide-notice-of-intent-to-withdraw-from-nafta"target="_blank">whether the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA.</a></sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-30 | Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-10-04 | 2017-02-07 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/09/technology/att-time-warner-merger.html", "http://marketrealist.com/2017/08/whats-really-stalling-the-att-time-warner-merger/", "http://www.knoxnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/mark-harmon/2017/08/30/hold-line-against-media-oligopolies/616407001/", "http://deadline.com/2017/08/brazilian-antitrust-officials-question-att-bid-time-warner-1202153653/", "http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/08/18/trump-threatened-to-kill-at-t-time-warner-deal-but-its-very-much-alive.html", "http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/att-makes-progress-in-bid-for-time-warner/news-story/f7a2aa2b46515911620f31d89b97fdab", "http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/09/27/senate-confirms-makan-delrahim-as-antitrust-chief-at-justice-department.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/donald-trump-time-warner-atandt-merger-block-cnn-boss-jeff-zucker-ousted-a7829366.html"", "https://www.thestreet.com/story/14301838/1/att-time-warner-deal.html", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/donald-trump-time-warner-atandt-merger-block-cnn-boss-jeff-zucker-ousted-a7829366.html", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-threatened-to-kill-the-at-t-time-warner-deal-but-its-very-much-alive-1502998077", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101256-t-time-warner-latest-merger-update", "http://on.wsj.com/2wgazYa", "http://nypost.com/2017/08/07/dc-politics-delays-att-time-warner-deal/", "http://www.atimes.com/att-ceo-stephenson-takes-alphabet-time-warner-bid/", "http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-stankey-att-time-warner-culture-20170907-htmlstory.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/554860", "https://youtu.be/Oci1CuCht7E", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/elizabeth-warren-refuses-to-meet-trump-nominee-shes-blocking-for-justice-antitrust-division/article/2631317", "http://www.barrons.com/articles/at-t-still-sees-time-warner-buy-by-year-end-1503309193", "http://ew.com/tv/2017/08/15/cnn-trump-ad-criticizing-journalists/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/business/media/jeffrey-zucker-cnn-trump.html?emc=edit_mbe_20170706&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=77825025&te=1&_r=0", "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4106050-t-time-warner-coming-home-stretch", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/elizabeth-warren-lifts-hold-on-justice-department-antitrust-nominee/article/2635349", "http://marketrealist.com/2017/08/why-atts-new-structure-suggests-confidence-in-twx-deal-approval/"] | binary | [["2017-02-07", 0.815], ["2017-02-07", 0.5], ["2017-02-07", 0.525], ["2017-02-07", 0.68], ["2017-02-07", 0.68], ["2017-02-08", 0.68], ["2017-02-08", 0.68], ["2017-02-08", 0.65], ["2017-02-08", 0.68], ["2017-02-09", 0.65], ["2017-02-09", 0.64], ["2017-02-09", 0.68], ["2017-02-09", 0.69], ["2017-02-09", 0.7], ["2017-02-09", 0.675], ["2017-02-10", 0.675], ["2017-02-10", 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0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.045], ["2017-09-28", 0.035], ["2017-09-29", 0.025], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-29", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/407 | The regulatory decision over AT&T's bid for Time Warner awaits the new administration (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12757/waving-goodbye"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2017/02/02/5-things-to-look-for-in-snaps-ipo-filing/"target="_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-expect-from-snapchats-ipo-filing-2017-1"target="_blank">Business Insider</a> and <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/30/snap-to-choose-nyse-for-ipo-source.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). For more information on the Department of Justice's role in merger approval see: <a href = "https://www.benton.org/blog/how-department-justice-federal-trade-commission-and-federal-communications-commission-regulate"target="_blank">Benton</a>.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/385"target="_blank">Verizon and Yahoo will conclude their merger before 1 June 2017?</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379"target="_blank">the FAA will grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles before 1 January 2018</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The Justice department has not approved the AT&T/Time Warner Merger. This question closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
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<hr>
| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-10-01 | Will the U.S. Department of Justice approve AT&T's bid for Time Warner before 1 October 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-02-14 | ["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/409-will-any-nato-member-invoke-article-4-or-article-5-before-1-january-2018/www.gmfus.org/blog/2017/06/02/abandoning-liberal-international-order-spheres-influence", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty", "http://www.nato.int/cps/cn/natohq/topics_110496.htm", "http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/sicherheitskonferenz-fake-news-101.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO", "http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iraq-mosul-offensive-20170218-story.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO", "https://www.rts.ch/info/monde/8405161-kaliningrad-pourrait-etre-le-detonateur-d-un-prochain-conflit-mondial.html", "http://www.gmfus.org/blog/2017/06/02/abandoning-liberal-international-order-spheres-influence", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/454820", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-10/putin-has-eastern-europe-hearing-trump-s-call-to-arms", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/446385", "http://www.transactionpub.com/title/An-Uncertain-Ally-978-1-4128-6538-8.htm", "http://www.nato.int/cps/ro/natohq/topics_49187.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-un-idUSKBN16O2J6", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-baltics-russia-idUSKBN1630W2", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/446461", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/14/avdiivka-frontline-ukraine-war-russia-backed-separatists", "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21", "http://stream.wsj.com/story/deadly-clashes-in-ukraine/SS-2-457850/", "http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1202903/responding-to-the-inf-treaty-violation/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_4"] | binary | [["2017-02-14", 0.24], ["2017-02-14", 0.35], ["2017-02-14", 0.05], ["2017-02-14", 0.05], ["2017-02-14", 0.06], ["2017-02-15", 0.09], ["2017-02-15", 0.125], ["2017-02-15", 0.09], ["2017-02-15", 0.12], 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["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/409 | Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21"target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.htm"target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5/24626653.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (<a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm"target="_blank">NATO</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href ="gjopen.com/questions/368"target="_blank">India will sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018</a> or on whether <a href = "gjopen.com/questions/377"target="_blank">the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA before 30 April 2017.</sub>"
<hr>
No NATO member invoked Article 4 or Article 5. This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-07 | 2017-02-16 | ["https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/", "https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+stocks", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/19/tesla-to-plunge-nearly-30-percent-on-weak-profitability-jefferies.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-musk-neuralink-idUSKBN17N0CU", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312511054847/dex211.htm", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck-research/teslas-unfettered-ambition-will-drain-finances-analysts-idUSKBN1DH1M4", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/tesla-drops-as-morgan-stanley-warns-of-cash-burn-richer-rivals", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-quality-insight/build-fast-fix-later-speed-hurts-quality-at-tesla-some-workers-say-idUSKBN1DT0N3?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-offering-idUSKBN1AN13I", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-ratings-consumerreports-idUSKBN17S14Q?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck-research/teslas-unfettered-ambition-to-drain-finances-analysts-idUSKBN1DH1M4", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/tesla-bulls-can-exhale-as-musk-on-time-with-dawn-of-model-3-era", "http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-junk-bond-offering-boost-2017-8?r=US&IR=T", "https://www.tesla.com/en_EU/blog/tesla-powerpack-enable-large-scale-sustainable-energy-south-australia?redirect=no", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-11-22/tesla-burns-through-about-8-000-every-minute-video", "https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-q3-earnings-elon-musk-celebrates-gigafactory-camping/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/tesla-is-blowing-through-8-000-every-minute-amid-model-3-woes", "https://jalopnik.com/teslas-german-subsidiary-didnt-warn-clients-it-was-endi-1794966451", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-seats/teslas-seat-strategy-goes-against-the-grain-for-now-idUSKBN1CV0DS", "https://electrek.co/2017/04/14/tesla-solar-bonds-elon-musk-spacex/", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/26/in-praise-of-teslas-bankruptcy/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-exclusive-idUSKBN17T2IY", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-hyperloop-musk/elon-musk-to-compete-to-fund-high-speed-loop-in-chicago-idUSKBN1DU0CF", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-assemblyline-idUSKBN17Q0DE"] | binary | [["2017-02-16", 0.065], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 0.055], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-16", 0.04], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.04], ["2017-02-17", 0.04], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.03], ["2017-02-17", 0.04], ["2017-02-17", 0.045], ["2017-02-18", 0.05], ["2017-02-18", 0.05], ["2017-02-18", 0.05], ["2017-02-19", 0.05], ["2017-02-19", 0.05], ["2017-02-19", 0.05], ["2017-02-19", 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["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-11", 0.01], ["2017-12-12", 0.01], ["2017-12-14", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-17", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.005], ["2017-12-28", 0.005], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/414 | Tesla has been faced with questions over its financial solvency over the years (<a href = "http://fortune.com/2016/12/02/tesla-model-3-stock-elon-musk/"target="_blank">Fortune</a>, <a href = "http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Did-Tesla-nearly-go-bankrupt-without-investors-6239762.php"target="_blank"> SF Gate</a>). Scrutiny increased with Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity in 2016 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/tesla-seals-2-billion-solarcity-deal-set-to-test-musk-s-vision"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-musk-cant-make-solarcity-tesla-deal-make-sense-2016-09-21"target="_blank">Market Watch</a>). Actions by Tesla or its wholly-owned subsidiaries, including SolarCity, will count, regardless of the country where the bankruptcy filing or corporate workout takes place. For more information on corporate workouts and bankruptcy proceedings see: <a href = "http://bankruptcy.findlaw.com/debt-relief/non-bankruptcy-workouts.html"target="_blank">FindLaw</a>, <a href = "https://www.law360.com/articles/510976/how-to-decide-between-out-of-court-workout-and-bankruptcy"target="_blank">Law 360</a>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379"target = "_blank">the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/223"target = "_blank">SpaceX will launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017</a>.</sub>
Tesla did not file for bankruptcy or begin restructuring its debt in a corporate workout. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 2018, will Tesla file for bankruptcy or begin restructuring its debt in a corporate workout? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-08 | 2017-02-16 | ["https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#Q1", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/nobel-economist-thaler-says-he-s-nervous-about-stock-market", "http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm", "http://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/dailypricehistory.xls", "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/goldman-warns-highest-valuations-since-1900-mean-pain-is-coming", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-asia-japan/trump-says-japan-would-shoot-north-korean-missiles-out-of-sky-if-it-bought-u-s-weaponry-idUSKBN1D602F", "http://www.investopedia.com/news/inverted-yield-curve-guide-recession/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/589154", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/david-stockman-tax-reform-plan-is-pipe-dream-stocks-to-plunge-40-70-percent.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/586785", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/05/inverted-yield-curve-predicting-coming-recession-commentary.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash", "https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/treasuries-u-s-two-year-yields-touch-9-year-high-curve-flattening-resumes-idUSL1N1NJ0RR", "http://www.livemint.com/Money/T1DfQsEOYivkMu49el8eoN/Nikkei-crash-Japans-worst-stock-market-slumps.html", "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/the-u-s-yield-curve-is-flattening-and-here-s-why-it-matters", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/26/investing/stocks-week-ahead-sp-500/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/classic-theory-predicts-rally-then-huge-drop-for-the-sp-500-technician.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/tax-loss-selling-to-pressure-2017s-losers-in-december-idUSKBN1E22AZ", "https://www.reuters.com/video/2017/10/10/dow-hits-record-high?videoId=372708621&videoChannel=5", 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["2017-09-21", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-22", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-23", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-24", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-25", 0.05], ["2017-09-26", 0.05], ["2017-09-27", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-30", 0.05], ["2017-10-01", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-04", 0.05], ["2017-10-05", 0.05], ["2017-10-06", 0.05], ["2017-10-06", 0.05], ["2017-10-07", 0.05], ["2017-10-08", 0.05], ["2017-10-08", 0.05], ["2017-10-09", 0.05], ["2017-10-10", 0.05], ["2017-10-11", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-13", 0.05], ["2017-10-14", 0.05], ["2017-10-15", 0.05], ["2017-10-16", 0.05], ["2017-10-17", 0.05], ["2017-10-18", 0.05], ["2017-10-19", 0.05], ["2017-10-20", 0.05], ["2017-10-22", 0.05], ["2017-10-24", 0.05], ["2017-10-25", 0.05], ["2017-10-26", 0.05], ["2017-10-27", 0.05], ["2017-10-28", 0.05], ["2017-10-29", 0.05], ["2017-10-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-01", 0.05], ["2017-11-02", 0.05], ["2017-11-03", 0.05], ["2017-11-04", 0.05], ["2017-11-05", 0.05], ["2017-11-06", 0.05], ["2017-11-07", 0.05], ["2017-11-08", 0.05], ["2017-11-08", 0.05], ["2017-11-08", 0.04], ["2017-11-10", 0.04], ["2017-11-11", 0.04], ["2017-11-12", 0.04], ["2017-11-13", 0.04], ["2017-11-14", 0.04], ["2017-11-15", 0.03], ["2017-11-15", 0.03], ["2017-11-17", 0.03], ["2017-11-18", 0.03], ["2017-11-19", 0.03], ["2017-11-20", 0.03], ["2017-11-21", 0.03], ["2017-11-23", 0.03], ["2017-11-24", 0.03], ["2017-11-24", 0.03], ["2017-11-26", 0.03], ["2017-11-27", 0.03], ["2017-11-28", 0.03], ["2017-11-28", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-03", 0.03], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-11", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-16", 0.02], ["2017-12-17", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/417 | This question will close as "yes" if any end-of-day closing value of the S&P 500 is at least 20% lower than the highest recorded closing value of the index in 2017 up to that date. Outcome will be determined by comparing the end-of-day closing values reported by Bloomberg (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND" target="_blank"> Bloomberg</a>).
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<hr>
</hr>
The S&P 500 did not fall 20% or more in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2017.
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<hr>
| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will the S&P 500 fall 20% or more in 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-07-05 | 2017-02-16 | ["https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-joint-resolution/99/text", "https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/s2844/BILLS-114s2844pcs.pdf", "https://www.congress.gov/114/bills/hr5394/BILLS-114hr5394rh.pdf", "http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Japan-s-pension-megafund-to-invest-in-US-infrastructure", "https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=70E36458-12CA-4298-B28B-F0F2DEB647B9", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-20/california-issues-125bn-bonds-bullet-train-despite-trump-threat-withhold-federal-fun", "http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-cash-20161224-story.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/06/donald-trump-economic-policies/529554/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170612&utm_campaign=ritholtz", "http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-trump-20170206-story.html", "https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0247", "http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/editorials/sd-infrastructure-yes-bullet-train-no-20170217-story.html", "https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-114publ223/pdf/PLAW-114publ223.pdf", "https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/california/articles/2017-05-22/trump-administration-approves-650m-for-caltrain", "http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/02/07/republicans-ask-trump-to-block-gov-browns-high-speed-rail-funding/", "http://www.mercedsunstar.com/news/local/community/article152050377.html", "http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/318324-california-gop-asks-trump-to-halt-high-speed-rail-grants", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/18/us/a-trump-ally-in-congress-warns-his-state-california-to-make-nice.html"] | binary | [["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.0], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 0.025], ["2017-02-16", 0.01], ["2017-02-16", 0.015], ["2017-02-16", 0.01], ["2017-02-16", 0.02], ["2017-02-16", 0.045], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], ["2017-02-16", 0.03], 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["2017-05-12", 0.01], ["2017-05-13", 0.01], ["2017-05-13", 0.01], ["2017-05-13", 0.01], ["2017-05-13", 0.01], ["2017-05-14", 0.01], ["2017-05-15", 0.01], ["2017-05-15", 0.01], ["2017-05-16", 0.01], ["2017-05-16", 0.01], ["2017-05-16", 0.01], ["2017-05-17", 0.01], ["2017-05-17", 0.01], ["2017-05-18", 0.01], ["2017-05-18", 0.01], ["2017-05-21", 0.01], ["2017-05-23", 0.01], ["2017-05-24", 0.01], ["2017-05-24", 0.01], ["2017-05-24", 0.01], ["2017-05-25", 0.01], ["2017-05-26", 0.01], ["2017-05-26", 0.01], ["2017-05-26", 0.01], ["2017-05-27", 0.01], ["2017-05-27", 0.01], ["2017-05-30", 0.01], ["2017-05-31", 0.01], ["2017-06-01", 0.01], ["2017-06-02", 0.01], ["2017-06-03", 0.01], ["2017-06-05", 0.01], ["2017-06-05", 0.01], ["2017-06-06", 0.01], ["2017-06-07", 0.01], ["2017-06-08", 0.01], ["2017-06-09", 0.01], ["2017-06-11", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-13", 0.01], ["2017-06-15", 0.01], ["2017-06-16", 0.01], ["2017-06-17", 0.01], ["2017-06-18", 0.01], ["2017-06-19", 0.01], ["2017-06-21", 0.0], ["2017-06-22", 0.0], ["2017-06-22", 0.0], ["2017-06-23", 0.0], ["2017-06-24", 0.0], ["2017-06-26", 0.0], ["2017-06-26", 0.0], ["2017-06-27", 0.0], ["2017-06-28", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/413 | The U.S. Department of Transportation and the state of California have high hopes for the California High-Speed Rail project, commonly known as the 'bullet train'. However, budget questions and construction delays have cast doubt over the project (<a href = "http://www.hsr.ca.gov"target="_blank">California High Speed Rail Authority</a>, <a href = "http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-cost-overruns-20170106-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.nationalreview.com/article/444262/california-high-speed-rail-unworkable-money-pit"target="_blank">National Review</a>, <a href = "https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0554"target="_blank">Federal Railroad Administration</a>). Some examples of approval include Congressional authorizations and appropriations, as well as decisions on grants by executive agencies. Funds do not have to be disbursed for the question to close as "yes," they only need to be approved. Funding which was originally approved by the Obama administration will not count to resolve this question.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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Federal Funding was not approved for the California High-Speed "Bullet Train" initiative. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will new federal funding be approved for the California High-Speed Rail Authority's "bullet train" project? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-06-02 | 2017-02-21 | ["http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/world/story/250366.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBnO9dw3n6A", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upvZdVK913I", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-idUSKBN17J0HZ", "http://bit.ly/2pI7BEn", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/india-to-boycott-china-summit-amid-kashmir-concerns-8844892", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_and_the_Arab_Spring", "https://www.insightonconflict.org/conflicts/kashmir/conflict-profile/", "https://www.geo.tv/latest/139619-Attack-on-Indian-army-camp-in-Kashmir-5including-officers-killed", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/what-indians-should-know-before-demanding-military-crackdown-in-kashmir-chhattisgarh/story-l65D1BM3Z4IVMJ2dtQ802O.html", "http://www.india.com/news/india/3-raw-agents-arrested-in-pakistan-occupied-kashmir-reports-2030992/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/opinion/a-cruel-april-in-kashmir.html?_r=0", "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/09/c_136193398.htm", "https://www.peacedirect.org/us/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-pakistan-idUSKBN18904U", "http://www.firstpost.com/india/indian-soldiers-beheaded-on-loc-mood-of-the-nation-demands-befitting-response-from-narendra-modi-govt-3419664.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/09/six-die-indian-police-open-fire-kashmir-poll-protesters-budgam-district", "http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/front-page/kashmir-shuts-against-pm-s-visit/245398.html", "http://www.oneindia.com/india/38-attacks-on-indian-army-is-india-doing-enough-to-stop-pak-offensive-2419266.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_and_Analysis_Wing", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/teen-girls-with-stones-are-the-new-threat-in-indias-kashmir-conflict/2017/04/28/5933168a-2a92-11e7-9081-f5405f56d3e4_story.html?utm_term=.bdb4b9a44956", "http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11865751", "https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/05/29/indian-army-not-expecting-limited-war-with-pakistan/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-india-un-observer-kashmir/3869296.html", "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/beheading-of-soldiers-army-will-hit-back-says-chief-rawat/story-3jgNa9vXUfDneaPCGcqTBL.html"] | binary | [["2017-02-21", 0.01], ["2017-02-21", 0.085], ["2017-02-21", 0.05], ["2017-02-21", 0.05], ["2017-02-21", 0.06], ["2017-02-22", 0.03], ["2017-02-22", 0.02], ["2017-02-22", 0.01], ["2017-02-22", 0.005], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-23", 0.04], ["2017-02-23", 0.02], ["2017-02-23", 0.02], ["2017-02-23", 0.045], ["2017-02-23", 0.01], ["2017-02-23", 0.01], ["2017-02-23", 0.015], ["2017-02-23", 0.01], ["2017-02-24", 0.015], ["2017-02-24", 0.02], ["2017-02-25", 0.01], ["2017-02-25", 0.01], ["2017-02-25", 0.015], ["2017-02-25", 0.02], ["2017-02-25", 0.02], ["2017-02-26", 0.02], ["2017-02-26", 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["2017-05-15", 0.0], ["2017-05-15", 0.0], ["2017-05-15", 0.0], ["2017-05-15", 0.0], ["2017-05-16", 0.0], ["2017-05-16", 0.0], ["2017-05-17", 0.0], ["2017-05-18", 0.0], ["2017-05-19", 0.0], ["2017-05-19", 0.0], ["2017-05-19", 0.0], ["2017-05-19", 0.0], ["2017-05-20", 0.0], ["2017-05-20", 0.0], ["2017-05-21", 0.0], ["2017-05-22", 0.0], ["2017-05-22", 0.0], ["2017-05-23", 0.0], ["2017-05-24", 0.0], ["2017-05-24", 0.0], ["2017-05-25", 0.0], ["2017-05-25", 0.0], ["2017-05-26", 0.0], ["2017-05-26", 0.0], ["2017-05-27", 0.0], ["2017-05-28", 0.0], ["2017-05-28", 0.0], ["2017-05-29", 0.0], ["2017-05-29", 0.0], ["2017-05-30", 0.0], ["2017-05-30", 0.0], ["2017-05-30", 0.0], ["2017-05-30", 0.0], ["2017-05-30", 0.0], ["2017-05-31", 0.0], ["2017-05-31", 0.0], ["2017-05-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/421 | Unrest in Kashmir is the source of constant tension between India and Pakistan (<a href = "http://www.ibtimes.com/india-pakistan-conflict-update-militants-attack-indian-army-post-kashmir-ceasefire-2425161"target="_blank">International Business Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-lines-that-have-been-crossed/article9180988.ece"target="_blank">The Hindu</a>). Examples of ground offensives include India's Operation Vijay in the 1999 Kargil War (<a href = "http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/kargil-99.htm"target="_blank">GlobalSecurity.org</a>) and Turkey's Euphrates Shield in Syria (<a href = "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-offensive-in-syria-news-latest-tanks-cross-border-operation-to-cleanse-region-of-isis-kurdish-a7210941.html"target="_blank">The Independent</a>). Examples of military incidents that would not meet the threshold of a ground offensive include the September 2016 attacks (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/29/pakistani-soldiers-killed-surgical-strikes-kashmir-india"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/18/asia/india-kashmir-attack/"target="_blank">CNN</a>), the October 2014 border clashes (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-29502054"target="_blank">BBC</a>), and the 2001 attack on the Indian Kashmiri Assembly (<a href = "http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1574225.stm"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, try forecasting on <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/350" target="_blank">whether both India and Pakistan will attend a SAARC summit before 1 January 2018</a> or <a>whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in India before 2017</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 May 2017.
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-05-31 | Will India or Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-16 | 2017-02-21 | ["https://www.devex.com/news/drone-meet-the-humanitarian-cluster-approach-91436", "https://slice.mit.edu/2017/11/06/drones-disappear-morse-corp/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aid-innovation-drones/its-a-bird-its-a-plane-its-an-edible-aid-drone-idUSKBN15Z1TG", "http://www.msf.org/en/article/yemen-crisis-update--july-2017", "https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/rescue-drones-hurricane-flood-disaster-relief/", "http://insideunmannedsystems.com/tanzania-zipline-launch-worlds-largest-national-drone-delivery-network-provide-life-saving-care/", "https://www.windhorse.aero/article.php/64/windhorse-events-2017-so-far", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level", "http://dronemajor.net/", "http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/development/malawis-drone-corridor-challenges-scepticism-towards-uavs/", "https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/hurricanes-show-why-drones-are-future-disaster-relief-ncna799961", "http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/photos-aid-groups-tackling-yemens-cholera-outbreak/", "http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=49169&catid=35&Itemid=107", "https://qz.com/1058702/trumps-multibillion-dollar-border-wall-wouldnt-stop-this-5000-drone/", "https://www.windhorse.aero/?jssCart=c0c1e11e0c8368de102ac986fd39d5ca", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/tech/big-data-drone-tech-can-help-fight-famine", "https://www.windhorse.aero/section.php/11/1/scenarios", "https://reliefweb.int/report/world/belgium-doubles-its-investment-humanitarian-innovation", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/547107", "https://s1.postimg.org/4sd4ciltbz/Clipboard023.png", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/15/news/companies/predator-turns-humanitarian-angel-one/index.html", "https://www.northeastern.edu/sei/2017/11/zipline-lifesaving-deliveries-by-drone/", "https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/innovations", 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["2017-12-08", 0.1], ["2017-12-10", 0.09], ["2017-12-10", 0.075], ["2017-12-12", 0.075], ["2017-12-13", 0.075], ["2017-12-14", 0.06], ["2017-12-14", 0.06], ["2017-12-15", 0.06], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-20", 0.05], ["2017-12-21", 0.03], ["2017-12-22", 0.03], ["2017-12-23", 0.03], ["2017-12-24", 0.03], ["2017-12-24", 0.03], ["2017-12-25", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-29", 0.02], ["2017-12-30", 0.02], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2018-01-01", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/420 | The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to deliver relief in humanitarian crises is the object of increasing attention, including several ongoing initiatives (<a href = "http://drones.fsd.ch/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Drones-in-Humanitarian-Action.pdf"target="_blank">Swiss Foundation for Mine Action</a>, <a href = "http://www.handyshippingguide.com/shipping-news/predators-drone-descendant-could-bring-food-to-war-zones-not-bombs_7589"target="_blank">Handy Shipping Guide</a>, <a href = "http://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/20161030/uae-providing-life-saving-drone-delivery-service-in-africa"target="_blank">The National</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/east-africa/2016/10/15/rwanda-drone-delivery-service/"target="_blank">CNBC Africa</a>). Humanitarian aid delivery to conflict zones has been impeded in places like Syria (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/syria-civil-war-explained-160505084119966.html"target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/30/syria-un-aid-convoys-more-than-four-fifths-blocked-delayed-september"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>), Ukraine (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38366712"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2014/12/eastern-ukraine-humanitarian-disaster-looms-food-aid-blocked/"target="_blank">Amnesty International</a>), Burma (<a href = "http://time.com/4576079/burma-myanmar-arakan-rakhine-rohingya-tatmadaw-suu-kyi/"target="_blank">Time Magazine</a>, <a href = "https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/21/burma-aid-blocked-rakhine-state"target="_blank">Human Rights Watch</a>), and South Sudan (<a href = "http://www.npr.org/2016/12/21/506401398/u-n-worries-south-sudan-is-on-the-brink-of-genocide"target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-10-14/south-sudan-starves-as-aid-blocked-money-spent-on-fighting"target="_blank">US News</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/376-will-a-u-s-state-enact-a-soda-tax-in-2017"target = "_blank">the US will enact a soda tax in 2017</a> or on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379-before-1-january-2018-will-the-u-s-federal-aviation-administration-grant-a-waiver-allowing-amazon-to-test-its-unmanned-aerial-vehicles"target = "_blank">the FAA will grant Amazon a waiver to begin testing UAV delivery systems</a>.</sub>
<hr>
An unmanned aerial vehicle was not used by a non-governmental or intra-governmental organization to deliver humanitarian aid to a conflict zone in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will an unmanned aerial vehicle be used by a non-governmental or intra-governmental organization to deliver humanitarian aid to a conflict zone in 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-02-21 | ["http://www.state.gov/t/isn/4791.htm", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/09/trump-urge-un-north-korea-naval-blockade-oil-embargo?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2009/11/2017&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/world/asia/china-vietnam-south-china-sea.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-exclusive-idUSKBN1AQ0YK", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2017/06/19/after-a-break-beijing-must-fear-the-u-s-again-over-south-china-sea-expansion/#e793f8076b55", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/15/militarisation-beijing-south-china-sea-islands", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/china-philippines-spar-military-visit-island-170422173715191.html", "https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/video-of-chinas-fighter-jets-shows-fight-for-control-with-us-in-this-area-1783221", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-japan-idUSKBN17P01Y", "http://origin.www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/transcripts/3.4.09HearingTranscript.pdf", "http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/7b0d0f70-bb07-48f2-af0a-7474e92d0bb0/San-Remo-ROE-Handbook.aspx", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40701121", "http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a228098.pdf", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/07/china-fighter-plane-spotted-on-south-china-sea-island-think-tank.html", "https://youtu.be/SbrmnsAJUWg", "http://www.futuresmag.com/2016/01/15/it%E2%80%99s-not-just-what-you-forecast-it%E2%80%99s-how-you-forecast", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-philippines-exclu-idUSKBN17B124", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/chinese-patrol-ships-keep-presence-around-malaysian-reefs", "http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/07_Pedrozo-Master.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-south-china-sea.html?_r=0", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/06/asia/philippines-duterte-south-china-sea/", 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["2017-12-07", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-12", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-14", 0.01], ["2017-12-15", 0.01], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-17", 0.01], ["2017-12-17", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.005], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/419 | A lethal confrontation, in this case, is one that results in at least three fatalities. Civilian fatalities will count so long as the military, law enforcement, or militia of China and another country are involved in the confrontation. China has been using People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN), militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Sea ( <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/02/china-navy-confirms-carrier-conducted-drills-in-south-china-sea.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/16/little-blue-men-the-maritime-militias-pushing-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://chinapower.csis.org/maritime-forces-destabilizing-asia/"target="_blank">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>). In the South China Sea, overlapping territorial claims, China's construction of artificial islands, and disagreements over freedom of navigation have heightened tensions (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/recent-developments-surrounding-the-south-china-sea/2017/02/12/dc239d84-f18b-11e6-9fb1-2d8f3fc9c0ed_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). In the East China Sea, China and Japan make competing claims to a group of islands and frequently dispatch planes and boats to assert or defend those claims (<a href = "http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-02-13/china-warns-trump-on-east-china-sea-after-abe-meeting"target="_blank">US News</a>, <a href = "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-08/japan-china-dispute-senkaku-diaoyu-islands-ownership/7827430"target="_blank">ABC</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/310-when-will-china-next-deploy-a-deep-sea-oil-rig-in-another-country-s-exclusive-economic-zone-eez-without-that-country-s-permission"target="_blank">China will next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission</a> or on whether <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/279" target="_blank">negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement will be completed before 1 October 2017</a> or on when <a href="_https://www.gjopen.com/questions/304" target="_blank">a lethal confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea or the United States will result in a fatality for either side?</a>
</sub>
<hr>
There was no lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-03-16 | 2017-02-24 | ["https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2016/interest-rate-control-is-more-complicated-than-you-thought", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/455768", "http://fortune.com/2017/02/14/janet-yellen-federal-reserve-interest-rates-congress-testimony/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARL", "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/us-2-year-bond-yield-hits-multi-year-high-on-hawkish-fed.html", "http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/8c4318d0-057c-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IOER", "http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2016/12/fed-watch-december-fomc-preview.html", "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions"", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/case-for-fed-rate-hike-now-a-lot-more-compelling-dudley.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/14/stocks-often-stumble-after-second-rate-hike-history-shows.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-idUSKBN16E2X4", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/455216", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/03/yellen-and-fed-rate-hike-one-last-hurdle.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/fed-s-brainard-says-rate-hike-will-likely-be-appropriate-soon-izrkepvf"] | binary | [["2017-02-24", 0.5], ["2017-02-24", 0.55], ["2017-02-24", 0.65], ["2017-02-24", 0.775], ["2017-02-24", 0.8], ["2017-02-24", 0.8], ["2017-02-24", 0.86], ["2017-02-25", 0.87], ["2017-02-25", 0.87], ["2017-02-25", 0.815], ["2017-02-25", 0.87], ["2017-02-25", 0.885], ["2017-02-25", 0.9], ["2017-02-25", 0.86], ["2017-02-25", 0.605], ["2017-02-25", 0.78], 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["2017-03-13", 0.96], ["2017-03-13", 0.975], ["2017-03-13", 0.975], ["2017-03-13", 0.98], ["2017-03-13", 0.98], ["2017-03-14", 0.98], ["2017-03-14", 0.98], ["2017-03-14", 0.98], ["2017-03-14", 0.98], ["2017-03-14", 0.98], ["2017-03-14", 0.98], ["2017-03-15", 0.98], ["2017-03-15", 0.98], ["2017-03-15", 0.985], ["2017-03-15", 0.985], ["2017-03-15", 0.985], ["2017-03-15", 0.985]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/423 | This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 15 March 2017 (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170315a1.htm"target="_blank">Federa Reserve</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER), is the interest paid by the Federal Reserve Bank to its depository institutions on balances that exceed the reserves they are required to hold (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reqresbalances.htm"target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The IOER is set by the Federal Open Market Comittee (FOMC) and detailed in the implementation notes of the monthly meeting (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). At the January 2017 meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances at 0.75 percent (<a href = "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170201a1.htm"target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>). The September 2017 meeting is scheduled for 19-20 September.
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<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/270"target = "_blank">whether Egypt’s GDP growth rate for their 2016/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%</a> or on <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/356-what-will-the-european-central-bank-ecb-do-with-respect-to-the-deposit-rate-at-its-january-2017-monetary-policy-meeting"target = "_blank">what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do with respect to the deposit rate</a> .</sub>
</hr> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-03-15 | Will the Federal Open Market Committee decide to raise the interest rate on excess reserve balances at or before its scheduled September 2017 meeting? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-05-02 | 2017-03-03 | ["https://www.voanews.com/a/lawmakers-say-trumps-former-security-advisor-may-have-broken-law/3824989.html", "http://www.statesman.com/news/sign-probes-into-russia-trump-campaign-will-die-down/bzix6oZhal03mR8xXdCvHK/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/27/top-pentagon-watchdog-launches-investigation-into-money-that-mike-flynn-received-from-foreign-groups/?utm_term=.b0f7f6fe101e", "http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/329522-exxon-seeks-waiver-from-russia-sanctions", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-election-exclusive-idUSKBN17L2N3", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/21/politics/russia-trump-campaign-advisers-infiltrate", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/fbi-dossier-carter-page-donald-trump-russia-investigation", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/27/politics/carter-page-civil-rights-violations-cnntv", "http://www.businessinsider.com/april-doss-will-join-senate-intelligence-committee-russia-investigation-2017-4", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/21/news/companies/trump-exxon-russia-sanctions", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/business/energy-environment/exxon-mobil-russia-sanctions-waiver-oil.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/21/business/energy-environment/treasury-exxon-mobil-sanctions-waiver.html?_r=0", "http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-flynn-lobbying-20170425-story.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/25/michael-flynn-turkey-russia-237550", "http://www.salon.com/2017/04/22/carter-page-confronts-cnn-report-that-russia-tried-to-use-him-to-infiltrate-trump-campaign/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39710527", "http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-73-back-independent-probe-russian-election-interference-n750161", "http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/330612-carl-bernstein-flynn-is-central-to-what-fbi-believes-is-cover", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/25/sally-yates-james-clapper-russia-testimony-schedule-237568", 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The United States imposed sanctions on Russia in March 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea, in December 2014 in response to its intervention in Eastern Ukraine, (<a href = "https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/ukrainerussia/"target="_blank">US Department of State</a>), and in December 2016 in response to cyber activity involving the U.S. presidential election (<a href = "https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20161229.aspxt"target="_blank">US Treasury</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
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This question was closed as "no" with end date of 29 April 2017.
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<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-29 | Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. lift sanctions imposed on Russia for cyber activity, the annexation of Crimea, or its actions in Eastern Ukraine? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-06-28 | 2017-03-03 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/16/google-fine-eu-case-shopping-search-result", "http://www.nasdaq.com/article/eu-to-resolve-google-antitrust-cases-in-the-next-few-months-cm793420#ixzz4i7s374hS", "http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1784_en.htm", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/technology/eu-google-fine.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-google-antitrust-idUSKBN18I1EV", "http://www.foundem.co.uk/Foundem_Google_Search_Remedies_March_2017.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/business/google-eu-fine-antitrust.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/washingtonbytes/2017/03/16/7-reasons-why-europes-antitrust-cases-against-google-are-a-big-deal/#33055fa1498f", "http://fortune.com/2017/05/10/apple-google-trade-europe/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-10/google-execs-hunker-down-for-summer-fight-with-eu-as-fines-loom", "https://www.wired.co.uk/article/margrethe-vestager-apple-facebook-google-antitrust-case", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/504231", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/504231", "http://ca.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idCAKBN18I1EV-OCATC", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/business/eu-google-antitrust-fine.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-24/eu-said-to-search-for-google-solution-that-stands-test-of-time", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-google-antitrust-idUSKCN0XH0VX", "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/03/google-facebook-twitter-must-comply-with-eu-consumer-law/", "https://www.ft.com/content/8b0ab7a8-5990-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/technology/eu-google-fine.html?_r=0", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/516957", "http://precursorblog.com/?q=content/google-takeaways-trump-antitrust-chief%E2%80%99s-senate-confirmation-hearing", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/475691", 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["2017-06-17", 0.79], ["2017-06-17", 0.79], ["2017-06-17", 0.79], ["2017-06-17", 0.79], ["2017-06-18", 0.79], ["2017-06-18", 0.795], ["2017-06-19", 0.8], ["2017-06-19", 0.82], ["2017-06-21", 0.82], ["2017-06-21", 0.8], ["2017-06-22", 0.8], ["2017-06-23", 0.8], ["2017-06-24", 0.8], ["2017-06-24", 0.8], ["2017-06-25", 0.8], ["2017-06-26", 0.8], ["2017-06-26", 0.8], ["2017-06-26", 0.8], ["2017-06-26", 0.8], ["2017-06-26", 0.82], ["2017-06-26", 0.82], ["2017-06-26", 0.845], ["2017-06-26", 0.845], ["2017-06-26", 0.845], ["2017-06-26", 0.85], ["2017-06-26", 0.85], ["2017-06-26", 0.85], ["2017-06-26", 0.85], ["2017-06-27", 0.85], ["2017-06-27", 0.85], ["2017-06-27", 0.85], ["2017-06-27", 0.88], ["2017-06-27", 0.88], ["2017-06-27", 0.88], ["2017-06-27", 0.88], ["2017-06-27", 0.89], ["2017-06-27", 0.89], ["2017-06-27", 0.89], ["2017-06-27", 0.925], ["2017-06-27", 0.925], ["2017-06-27", 0.95], ["2017-06-27", 0.95], ["2017-06-27", 0.95], ["2017-06-27", 0.95], ["2017-06-27", 0.95], ["2017-06-27", 0.97], ["2017-06-27", 0.97]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/427 | The European Commission (EC) initiated multiple antitrust proceedings against Alphabet/Google, Inc in 2016 (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/technology/google-europe-antitrust.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/articles/google-ceo-to-meet-with-eu-antitrust-chief-1479314230"target="_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/19/google-could-face-3-separate-antitrust-cases-eu-competition-chief.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>), which Google has contested (<a href = "https://blog.google/topics/google-europe/android-choice-competition-response-europe/"target="_blank">Google</a>). For more information on the status of the European Commission's antitrust cases against Google see (<a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/competition/elojade/isef/index.cfm?fuseaction=dsp_result&case_title=Google&policy_area_id=1"target="_blank">European Comission</a>).
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<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 27 June, 2017 (<a href = "http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1784_en.htm"target="_blank">The European Union</a>)
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<hr> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-06-27 | Before 1 January 2018, will the European Commission find Google liable in an antitrust case? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-07-06 | 2017-03-07 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-idUSKBN16V04A", "https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/01/china-taiwan-tensions-tinderbox-set-asia-pacific-alight/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-21/taiwan-launches-homegrown-submarine-program-to-counter-china", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-talks-northkorea-idUSKBN19F06H", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38579559", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2017/02/15/new-chinese-missile-upgrade-likely-designed-with-taiwan-in-its-crosshairs/#6a4cbc2fba6d", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/china-live-fires-aircraft-carrier-group-amid-taiwan-tensions-with-us"] | binary | [["2017-03-07", 0.01], ["2017-03-07", 0.01], ["2017-03-07", 0.04], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.055], ["2017-03-08", 0.06], ["2017-03-08", 0.045], ["2017-03-08", 0.02], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-09", 0.005], ["2017-03-09", 0.005], ["2017-03-09", 0.01], 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["2017-06-27", 0.0], ["2017-06-28", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-29", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0], ["2017-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/429 | In the 1995-96 Taiwan Straits crises, China test-fired missiles in the Taiwan Strait (<a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/12/world/china-warns-us-to-stay-out-of-taiwan-feud.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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- <a href="gjopen.com/questions/361-will-the-philippines-participate-in-the-2017-balikatan-military-exercise">Will the Philippines participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise?</a></h5>
</hr>
There is no evidence that China has fired a missile landing with 50nm of Taiwan. This question was closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Before 1 July 2017, will China fire a missile that lands within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-10-04 | 2017-03-07 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/us/politics/trump-north-korea-extortion-money.html?emc=edit_mbae_20170831&nl=&nlid=77825025&te=1&_r=0", "http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-iran-may-have-helped-rogue-state-britain-fears/news-story/cc3d021f19e000f0da56fa31e607df9e", "http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/NORTHKOREA-MISSILES/010031V7472/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-idUSKCN1BB0OH", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/north-korea-rex-tillerson-sees-possible-pathway-to-dialogue/8833188", "https://courses.physics.illinois.edu/phys280/sp2012/slides/12p280-5-delivery.pdf", "http://www.dw.com/en/nations-start-to-choose-sides-in-event-of-north-korea-war/a-40049024", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear/south-korea-eyes-bigger-warheads-north-korean-icbm-reportedly-on-the-move-idUSKCN1BD0VW", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/13/clapper-north-korea-nuclear-weapons-241589", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear/north-korea-earthquake-suggests-sixth-nuclear-test-as-trump-abe-discuss-escalating-crisis-idUSKCN1BD0VW", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/mattis-warns-north-korea-end-regime-destruction-people/story?id=49116627", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-report-idUSKCN1AU2GH", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-labour-china-insight-idUSKBN1AT00Q", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-advisers-idUSKCN1BB075", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-swiss/swiss-ready-to-mediate-in-north-korea-crisis-idUSKCN1BF157", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/kim-jong-un-shown-ordering-more-warheads-after-tillersons-praise-for-restraint-1503488094", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/09/thinking-through-nuclear-command-and-control-in-north-korea/", "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15YgdrhrCM8", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-threatens-absolute-force-as-u-s-south-hold-military-drills-1503392504", "https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea-missiles-idUKKCN1B2107", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-u-s-general-readies-military-plan-for-north-korea-but-pushes-for-diplomacy-1502626832", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-war-analysis-idUSKBN1AQ2LM", "https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/a-north-korean-meditator-828469", "http://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-nuclear-blackmail-aimed-at-direct-us-talks/a-40723000", "http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/09/17/551214870/some-say-its-time-to-rethink-responses-to-north-korea-nuclear-crisis"] | binary | [["2017-03-07", 0.005], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.005], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.01], ["2017-03-08", 0.005], ["2017-03-08", 0.0], ["2017-03-09", 0.01], ["2017-03-09", 0.005], ["2017-03-09", 0.005], ["2017-03-10", 0.0], ["2017-03-10", 0.05], ["2017-03-10", 0.02], 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["2017-08-30", 0.0], ["2017-08-30", 0.0], ["2017-08-30", 0.0], ["2017-08-31", 0.0], ["2017-09-01", 0.0], ["2017-09-01", 0.0], ["2017-09-02", 0.0], ["2017-09-03", 0.0], ["2017-09-03", 0.0], ["2017-09-03", 0.0], ["2017-09-04", 0.0], ["2017-09-04", 0.0], ["2017-09-05", 0.0], ["2017-09-05", 0.0], ["2017-09-06", 0.0], ["2017-09-06", 0.0], ["2017-09-07", 0.0], ["2017-09-08", 0.0], ["2017-09-08", 0.0], ["2017-09-09", 0.0], ["2017-09-10", 0.0], ["2017-09-11", 0.0], ["2017-09-12", 0.0], ["2017-09-13", 0.0], ["2017-09-14", 0.0], ["2017-09-15", 0.0], ["2017-09-16", 0.0], ["2017-09-16", 0.0], ["2017-09-17", 0.0], ["2017-09-17", 0.0], ["2017-09-18", 0.0], ["2017-09-18", 0.0], ["2017-09-19", 0.0], ["2017-09-20", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-21", 0.0], ["2017-09-22", 0.0], ["2017-09-22", 0.0], ["2017-09-22", 0.0], ["2017-09-23", 0.0], ["2017-09-23", 0.0], ["2017-09-23", 0.0], ["2017-09-24", 0.0], ["2017-09-25", 0.0], ["2017-09-25", 0.0], ["2017-09-26", 0.0], ["2017-09-27", 0.0], ["2017-09-27", 0.0], ["2017-09-28", 0.0], ["2017-09-28", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/430 | The six party talks are a series of negotiations on dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program, involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the U.S. (<a href = "http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/six-party-talks-north-koreas-nuclear-program/p13593" target = "_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2017/article/12631/lower-nuclear-threshold"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). Talks stalled in 2008 (<a href = "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/6partytalks"target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). China has expressed recent interest in resuming talks (<a href = "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-12/01/c_135871120.htm"target="_blank">Xin Hua</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-idUSKBN15W272" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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<hr>
Six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program did not resume. This question was closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-10-01 | Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 October 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-06-08 | 2017-03-07 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-exclusive-idUSKBN16S2VH?il=0", "https://twitter.com/MeGovernment/status/862589342925107200", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN16Y2QF?il=0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veto", "http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/28/news/override-obama-veto-911-bill/", "http://www.nato.int/", "http://www.oecd.org/spain/governmentofspainusefullinks.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN16Z2UG?il=0", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Montenegro_to_NATO", "http://www.politico.eu/article/russia-protests-us-approval-of-montenegros-nato-membership/", "http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/bannons-war/transcript/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/28/montenegro-ratifies-nato-membership-in-historic-shift-to-western-alliance", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN16U33K", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/rand-paul-senate-backlash-obamacare-russia-236272", "https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/04/11/world/europe/11reuters-usa-nato-montenegro.html?_r=0", "http://true-news.info/montenegro-in-june-will-become-an-official-member-of-nato/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/428-will-montenegro-become-a-full-nato-member-before-1-january-2018/www.thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/montenegro-needs-us-nato-help-fend-russians-1091?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&utm_campaign=9e2f0dbf76-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_02cbee778d-9e2f0dbf76-122492589", "https://www.rt.com/news/386469-montenegro-ratifies-nato-membership/", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/465935", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN17D1XL", "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_143400.htm?selectedLocale=en", "http://www.rferl.org/a/montenegro-parliament-nato-membership-vote/28457280.html", "http://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/montenegro-needs-us-nato-help-fend-russians-1091?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&utm_campaign=9e2f0dbf76-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_02cbee778d-9e2f0dbf76-122492589", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/western-balkans-russias-crosshairs-1091?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&utm_campaign=9e2f0dbf76-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_02cbee778d-9e2f0dbf76-122492589", "http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-haltzel/montenegro-tests-us-forei_b_14441274.html"] | binary | [["2017-03-07", 0.89], ["2017-03-07", 0.95], ["2017-03-07", 0.885], ["2017-03-07", 0.87], ["2017-03-07", 0.935], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.795], ["2017-03-08", 0.57], ["2017-03-08", 0.64], ["2017-03-08", 0.64], ["2017-03-08", 0.9], ["2017-03-08", 0.8], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.95], ["2017-03-08", 0.925], ["2017-03-09", 0.85], 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["2017-06-01", 1.0], ["2017-06-02", 1.0], ["2017-06-02", 1.0], ["2017-06-02", 1.0], ["2017-06-02", 1.0], ["2017-06-03", 1.0], ["2017-06-03", 1.0], ["2017-06-03", 1.0], ["2017-06-04", 1.0], ["2017-06-04", 1.0], ["2017-06-04", 1.0], ["2017-06-04", 1.0], ["2017-06-04", 1.0], ["2017-06-04", 1.0], ["2017-06-05", 1.0], ["2017-06-05", 1.0], ["2017-06-05", 1.0], ["2017-06-05", 1.0], ["2017-06-05", 1.0], ["2017-06-05", 1.0], ["2017-06-05", 1.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/428 | This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 5 June 2017 (<a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_144647.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/montenegro-joins-nato-n768521" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-montenegro-idUSKBN18W2WS?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563" target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
Montenegro's accession to NATO can happen when all 28 members have ratified the accession protocol (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36311644"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_131132.htm"target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href = "http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/us-senate-panel-likely-to-back-montenegro-s-nato-bid-09-14-2016"target="_blank">Balkan Insight</a>, <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/montenegro-nato-united-states-senate-russia/3657386.html"target="_blank">VOA News</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/a/montenegro-nato-russia-chess-match/28210094.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberity</a> , <a href = "https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/03/01/canada-ratified-nato-accession-protocol-only-three-countries-left/"target="_blank">European Western Balkans</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-06-05 | Will Montenegro become a full NATO member before 1 January 2018? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-08-03 | 2017-03-16 | ["http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/us-protests-intercept-by-chinese-jets-china-blames-us", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/china-outraged-by-planned-1-point-42-billion-us-arms-sales-to-taiwan.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/asia/south-china-sea-us-navy-warship-spratly-islands.html?_r=0", "http://www.janes.com/images/assets/148/70148/A_great_leap_forward_edit.pdf", "http://www.firstpost.com/india/amid-sikkim-standoff-chinas-submarine-prowls-indian-ocean-is-it-part-of-larger-strategy-on-border-dispute-3774785.html", "http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/05/20/asia-pacific/china-deploys-surface-air-missiles-hainan-island-bid-create-south-china-sea-no-fly-zone-report/#.WSev9RPyt8c", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-southchinasea-idUSKBN19S0IU?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-thaad-russia-idUSKBN19O0N8", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/01/trump-global-trade-war-steel-aluminum-imports", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/the-calm-before-the-storm-the-future-of-the-south-china-sea-dispute/", "http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-sent-monster-ship-roam-the-south-china-sea-20608", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39971267", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/05/13/521739/AWACS-aircraft-South-China-Sea", "https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF?ver=2017-06-06-141328-770", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/no-fly-zone-in-south-china-sea-a-fabrication-china-4673651/", "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2097215/pentagon-cites-pla-naval-base-djibouti-part-beijings", "http://rips.or.jp/Policy_Perspectives/Policy%20Perpsectives%20No25_Restless%20Rivals_2017.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/recent-developments-surrounding-the-south-china-sea/2017/07/03/356622ac-5fc0-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html?utm_term=.b0fea950b04b", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-vietnam-idUSKCN18B0HK", "https://qz.com/990701/north-korea-is-helping-china-in-the-south-china-sea-whether-it-knows-it-or-not/", "http://breakingdefense.com/2017/06/indispensable-palau-deal-at-risk-will-china-get-access/", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/29/asia/south-china-sea-underwater-observation-system/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-military-idUSKBN18X2W8", "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-scrambles-fighter-jets-over-chinese-vessel-1.3140941", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/02/politics/us-navy-south-china-sea/index.html"] | binary | [["2017-03-16", 0.03], ["2017-03-16", 0.17], ["2017-03-16", 0.0], ["2017-03-16", 0.5], ["2017-03-16", 0.31], ["2017-03-16", 0.075], ["2017-03-17", 0.1], ["2017-03-17", 0.15], ["2017-03-17", 0.2], ["2017-03-17", 0.26], ["2017-03-17", 0.245], ["2017-03-17", 0.17], ["2017-03-18", 0.18], ["2017-03-18", 0.14], ["2017-03-18", 0.125], ["2017-03-19", 0.115], 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Arbitration ruled against China's territorial claims in a landmark case in June 2016, China stated that it has a right to set up an ADIZ in the South China Sea (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://news.usni.org/2016/07/18/analysis-can-china-enforce-south-china-sea-air-defense-identification-zone"target="_blank">US Naval Institute</a>). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defence identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/china-ponders-adiz-in-disputed-sea/3617133.html"target="_blank">VOA</a>, <a href = "http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-china-could-declare-south-china-sea-adiz-right-about-now-19273"target="_blank">National Interest</a>, <a href = "http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26cf55ce-58da-11e3-a7cb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz4JgSL07aA"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2013-12-09/whats-adiz"target="_blank">Foreign Affairs</a>.
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<hr>
China did not declare an ADIZ over any part of the South China Sea. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 1 Aug 2017.
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<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-08-01 | Will China officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 August 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-05-02 | 2017-03-17 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/politics/syria-strike-trump-timeline.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/world/middleeast/tillerson-mcmaster-syria-attack.html?_r=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/defense-secretary-mattis-withdraws-patterson-as-choice-for-undersecretary-for-policy/2017/03/14/dd5ec8bc-08b6-11e7-93dc-00f9bdd74ed1_story.html?utm_term=.92472e81424e", "http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/327945-report-priebuss-job-safe-but-bannon-in-danger", "http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-ex-campaign-chairman-manafort-worked-to-advance-putins-interests-labor-nominee-acosta-cut-deal-with-billionaire-2017-03-22", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/480639", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-navy-korea-idUSKBN17A0V5", "http://www.thefreedictionary.com/syphilitic", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/mattis-defense-hill-republicans-obama-236329"] | binary | [["2017-03-17", 0.12], ["2017-03-17", 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0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/440 | For more information on the Cabinet-level positions in the Trump Administration see: <a href = "https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/cabinet"target="_blank">The White House</a>. Failed nominations include nominations that are withdrawn, returned to the President by the Senate, and those which are voted down by the Senate. Since taking office, 19 of President Trump's cabinet nominees have been confirmed by the Senate, one nomination has been withdrawn, and three remain vacant (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee-tracker/"target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/405-will-a-border-adjustment-tax-be-passed-by-the-u-s-senate-or-house-of-representatives-before-30-april-2017"target="_blank">Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?</a>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-29 | Between 17 March 2017 and 30 April 2017, will a U.S. Cabinet-level nomination fail or will a Cabinet-level member of the administration cease to hold their office? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-02 | 2017-03-21 | ["https://www.dfa.ie/news-and-media/press-releases/press-release-archive/2017/november/statement-by-minister-coveney-on-northern-ireland/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN1AL0R1", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/21/mps-accuse-kate-hoey-of-putting-brexit-before-northern-ireland-peace", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nireland-politics/british-irish-pms-to-visit-northern-ireland-urging-end-to-political-crisis-idUSKBN1FW00C", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4619678/Commentary-Ireland--Theresa-Mays-latest-Brexit-blunder.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-rebels-idUSKBN19B3A1", "http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-northern-ireland-only-practical-solution-a7898831.html", "https://www.irishnews.com/news/politicalnews/2018/02/14/news/stormont-talks-have-failed-and-there-is-no-prospect-of-a-deal-says-dup-leader-arlene-foster-1256022/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/the-year-that-makes-or-breaks-brexit", "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/simon-coveney-sees-no-ambiguity-in-deal-on-post-brexit-border-1.3353525", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN1B4230", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-timeline-idUSKBN19A2FO?mod=related&channelName=ousivMolt", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-politics/ireland-on-the-verge-of-snap-election-as-crisis-deepens-idUSKBN1DR15P", "https://www.foreignbrief.com/europe/trouble-northern-ireland-deadlock/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-nireland-talks/northern-irelands-dup-warns-of-speedy-return-to-rule-by-london-idUSKCN1BB2S4", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/20/ireland-kate-hoey-good-friday-agreement-remarks", "https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-issues-brexit-ultimatum-on-ireland/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/01/timeline-road-brexit/", "http://www.irishnews.com/news/2017/03/11/news/are-we-any-closer-to-a-border-poll--960596/", "https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3786046/sinn-feins-mps-fly-to-london-to-take-up-their-westminster-offices-sparking-fears-they-will-wreck-plans-for-a-tory-dup-majority/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKBN1AD1I4", "http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/06/14/brexit-dup-northern-ireland-troubles/", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/13/theresa-may-just-negotiated-away-the-united-kingdom/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN1B70X5", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ireland-idUSKBN1AD0KG"] | binary | [["2017-03-21", 0.275], ["2017-03-21", 0.08], ["2017-03-21", 0.02], ["2017-03-22", 0.06], ["2017-03-22", 0.035], ["2017-03-22", 0.02], ["2017-03-23", 0.02], ["2017-03-24", 0.03], ["2017-03-24", 0.065], ["2017-03-25", 0.085], ["2017-03-25", 0.085], ["2017-03-25", 0.045], ["2017-03-26", 0.04], ["2017-03-26", 0.04], ["2017-03-27", 0.03], ["2017-03-27", 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["2018-03-03", 0.01], ["2018-03-04", 0.01], ["2018-03-05", 0.01], ["2018-03-06", 0.01], ["2018-03-07", 0.01], ["2018-03-08", 0.01], ["2018-03-09", 0.01], ["2018-03-11", 0.01], ["2018-03-13", 0.01], ["2018-03-13", 0.01], ["2018-03-14", 0.01], ["2018-03-16", 0.01], ["2018-03-17", 0.01], ["2018-03-19", 0.01], ["2018-03-23", 0.01], ["2018-03-23", 0.01], ["2018-03-25", 0.01], ["2018-03-27", 0.01], ["2018-03-29", 0.01], ["2018-03-30", 0.01], ["2018-04-01", 0.01], ["2018-04-03", 0.01], ["2018-04-05", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.01], ["2018-04-11", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-14", 0.01], ["2018-04-16", 0.01], ["2018-04-18", 0.01], ["2018-04-19", 0.01], ["2018-04-21", 0.01], ["2018-04-24", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-27", 0.01], ["2018-04-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-04", 0.01], ["2018-05-07", 0.01], ["2018-05-10", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-15", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-21", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-25", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-27", 0.01], ["2018-05-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-05", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-10", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-21", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-25", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-07-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/442 | During the U.K. Brexit referendum, a majority of Northern Irish voted to remain in the EU (<A HREF = "http://www.newsweek.com/brexit-inspires-unthinkable-united-ireland-477224"target="_blank">Newsweek</a>). The United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union, and Sinn Fein's strong showing in the recent election, has intensified the issue of Northern Ireland's governance status (<a href = "http://www.irishnews.com/news/2017/03/11/news/are-we-any-closer-to-a-border-poll--960596/"target="_blank">Irish News</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/bbca2ee4-0294-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). The 1998 Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the right to hold a referendum, or "border poll" on unification with Ireland, and some have floated the idea of an independence referendum (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-39266547"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | [] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.05], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-03-31", 0.6], ["2017-03-31", 0.875], ["2017-03-31", 0.85], ["2017-03-31", 0.75], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-04-01", 0.17], ["2017-04-01", 0.07], ["2017-04-01", 0.07], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.07], ["2017-04-01", 0.125], ["2017-04-01", 0.115], ["2017-04-01", 0.2], ["2017-04-01", 0.04], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.06], ["2017-04-02", 0.06], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.045], ["2017-04-03", 0.045], ["2017-04-04", 0.025], ["2017-04-04", 0.04], ["2017-04-04", 0.04], ["2017-04-04", 0.045], ["2017-04-05", 0.03], ["2017-04-06", 0.05], ["2017-04-06", 0.03], ["2017-04-06", 0.03], ["2017-04-06", 0.02], ["2017-04-07", 0.02], 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fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-idUSKCN18A0ZP?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5918bf7604d30146574db71f&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "http://time.com/4826117/dr-congo-kasai-conflict-death-toll/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/23/opinion/un-congo-murder.html?_r=0", "http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/drc-tribal-rebellion-what-we-know-20170331", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39946722", "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2017/country-chapters/democratic-republic-congo", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bob-dole-signs-contract-to-help-democratic-republic-of-congos-president-cozy-up-to-trump/article/2623141"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.12], ["2017-03-31", 0.06], ["2017-03-31", 0.375], ["2017-03-31", 0.85], ["2017-03-31", 0.75], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.95], ["2017-04-01", 0.925], ["2017-04-01", 0.8], ["2017-04-01", 0.8], ["2017-04-01", 0.7], ["2017-04-01", 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["2017-06-04", 0.135], ["2017-06-04", 0.135], ["2017-06-05", 0.135], ["2017-06-06", 0.135], ["2017-06-06", 0.135], ["2017-06-07", 0.135], ["2017-06-08", 0.135], ["2017-06-08", 0.135], ["2017-06-08", 0.135], ["2017-06-08", 0.135], ["2017-06-08", 0.135], ["2017-06-08", 0.115], ["2017-06-09", 0.115], ["2017-06-09", 0.115], ["2017-06-10", 0.115], ["2017-06-11", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.135], ["2017-06-13", 0.135], ["2017-06-13", 0.135], ["2017-06-15", 0.135], ["2017-06-15", 0.135], ["2017-06-16", 0.135], ["2017-06-16", 0.135], ["2017-06-17", 0.135], ["2017-06-17", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-19", 0.15], ["2017-06-19", 0.15], ["2017-06-21", 0.15], ["2017-06-22", 0.15], ["2017-06-22", 0.15], ["2017-06-23", 0.15], ["2017-06-23", 0.15], ["2017-06-24", 0.15], ["2017-06-24", 0.15], ["2017-06-25", 0.15], ["2017-06-26", 0.15], ["2017-06-26", 0.15], ["2017-06-26", 0.15], ["2017-06-27", 0.135], ["2017-06-27", 0.15], ["2017-06-27", 0.15], ["2017-06-28", 0.15], ["2017-06-29", 0.15], ["2017-06-29", 0.15], ["2017-06-29", 0.15], ["2017-06-29", 0.15], ["2017-06-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/454 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/100-killed-car-fighting-170517025938882.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40350057", "http://news.sky.com/story/congo-militia-attack-babies-and-toddlers-in-wave-of-violence-10921274?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/100-killed-car-bria-truce-deal-170621135739791.html"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.35], ["2017-03-31", 0.16], ["2017-03-31", 0.255], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.475], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-04-01", 0.11], ["2017-04-01", 0.035], ["2017-04-01", 0.035], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.06], ["2017-04-01", 0.055], ["2017-04-01", 0.055], ["2017-04-01", 0.055], ["2017-04-02", 0.055], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.085], ["2017-04-02", 0.085], ["2017-04-03", 0.085], ["2017-04-03", 0.1], ["2017-04-03", 0.1], ["2017-04-03", 0.075], ["2017-04-03", 0.075], ["2017-04-03", 0.11], ["2017-04-03", 0.1], ["2017-04-03", 0.1], ["2017-04-03", 0.075], ["2017-04-04", 0.11], ["2017-04-04", 0.075], ["2017-04-04", 0.1], ["2017-04-04", 0.1], ["2017-04-05", 0.1], ["2017-04-05", 0.08], ["2017-04-05", 0.07], ["2017-04-06", 0.115], ["2017-04-06", 0.15], ["2017-04-06", 0.15], ["2017-04-06", 0.17], ["2017-04-07", 0.185], ["2017-04-07", 0.16], ["2017-04-07", 0.135], ["2017-04-07", 0.135], ["2017-04-08", 0.135], ["2017-04-08", 0.175], ["2017-04-09", 0.175], ["2017-04-09", 0.2], ["2017-04-11", 0.2], ["2017-04-11", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.135], ["2017-04-12", 0.135], ["2017-04-13", 0.175], ["2017-04-13", 0.175], ["2017-04-13", 0.175], ["2017-04-13", 0.15], ["2017-04-14", 0.15], ["2017-04-14", 0.15], ["2017-04-15", 0.15], ["2017-04-16", 0.12], ["2017-04-17", 0.12], ["2017-04-17", 0.12], ["2017-04-17", 0.11], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-19", 0.1], ["2017-04-19", 0.1], ["2017-04-19", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-21", 0.1], ["2017-04-21", 0.1], ["2017-04-22", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-24", 0.1], ["2017-04-24", 0.1], ["2017-04-25", 0.1], ["2017-04-26", 0.1], ["2017-04-26", 0.1], ["2017-04-26", 0.1], ["2017-04-27", 0.1], ["2017-04-27", 0.1], ["2017-04-28", 0.1], ["2017-04-28", 0.1], ["2017-04-29", 0.1], ["2017-04-29", 0.1], ["2017-04-30", 0.1], ["2017-04-30", 0.1], ["2017-04-30", 0.1], ["2017-04-30", 0.1], ["2017-05-01", 0.1], ["2017-05-02", 0.1], ["2017-05-02", 0.1], ["2017-05-02", 0.1], ["2017-05-03", 0.1], ["2017-05-04", 0.1], ["2017-05-04", 0.1], ["2017-05-04", 0.1], ["2017-05-05", 0.1], ["2017-05-05", 0.1], ["2017-05-05", 0.1], ["2017-05-06", 0.1], ["2017-05-06", 0.1], ["2017-05-07", 0.1], ["2017-05-07", 0.1], ["2017-05-08", 0.1], ["2017-05-08", 0.1], ["2017-05-08", 0.1], ["2017-05-09", 0.075], ["2017-05-09", 0.075], ["2017-05-09", 0.075], ["2017-05-10", 0.075], ["2017-05-10", 0.075], ["2017-05-10", 0.075], ["2017-05-11", 0.1], ["2017-05-11", 0.1], ["2017-05-12", 0.1], ["2017-05-12", 0.1], ["2017-05-12", 0.1], ["2017-05-13", 0.1], ["2017-05-13", 0.1], ["2017-05-14", 0.1], ["2017-05-14", 0.1], ["2017-05-15", 0.1], ["2017-05-15", 0.1], ["2017-05-15", 0.1], ["2017-05-16", 0.1], ["2017-05-16", 0.1], ["2017-05-16", 0.1], ["2017-05-17", 0.1], ["2017-05-17", 0.1], ["2017-05-17", 0.1], ["2017-05-17", 0.1], ["2017-05-19", 0.1], ["2017-05-19", 0.1], ["2017-05-19", 0.1], ["2017-05-19", 0.1], ["2017-05-20", 0.1], ["2017-05-21", 0.1], ["2017-05-22", 0.1], ["2017-05-23", 0.1], ["2017-05-24", 0.1], ["2017-05-24", 0.1], ["2017-05-25", 0.1], ["2017-05-26", 0.1], ["2017-05-26", 0.1], ["2017-05-27", 0.1], ["2017-05-29", 0.1], ["2017-05-29", 0.1], ["2017-05-30", 0.1], ["2017-05-30", 0.1], ["2017-05-30", 0.1], ["2017-05-30", 0.1], ["2017-05-30", 0.1], ["2017-05-31", 0.1], ["2017-05-31", 0.1], ["2017-05-31", 0.1], ["2017-05-31", 0.1], ["2017-06-01", 0.1], ["2017-06-01", 0.1], ["2017-06-02", 0.1], ["2017-06-02", 0.1], ["2017-06-03", 0.1], ["2017-06-03", 0.115], ["2017-06-04", 0.115], ["2017-06-04", 0.115], ["2017-06-05", 0.115], ["2017-06-05", 0.115], ["2017-06-05", 0.115], ["2017-06-06", 0.115], ["2017-06-06", 0.115], ["2017-06-07", 0.115], ["2017-06-08", 0.115], ["2017-06-08", 0.115], ["2017-06-08", 0.115], ["2017-06-08", 0.115], ["2017-06-09", 0.115], ["2017-06-09", 0.115], ["2017-06-10", 0.115], ["2017-06-11", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.115], ["2017-06-12", 0.13], ["2017-06-12", 0.13], ["2017-06-13", 0.13], ["2017-06-13", 0.13], ["2017-06-15", 0.13], ["2017-06-15", 0.13], ["2017-06-16", 0.13], ["2017-06-16", 0.13], ["2017-06-16", 0.13], ["2017-06-16", 0.13], ["2017-06-17", 0.13], ["2017-06-17", 0.13], ["2017-06-18", 0.13], ["2017-06-18", 0.13], ["2017-06-18", 0.13], ["2017-06-18", 0.13], ["2017-06-19", 0.13], ["2017-06-19", 0.13], ["2017-06-20", 0.13], ["2017-06-20", 0.13], ["2017-06-21", 0.13], ["2017-06-21", 0.13], ["2017-06-22", 0.165], ["2017-06-22", 0.165], ["2017-06-22", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.165], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-23", 0.13], ["2017-06-24", 0.13], ["2017-06-24", 0.13], ["2017-06-25", 0.13], ["2017-06-25", 0.115], ["2017-06-26", 0.13], ["2017-06-26", 0.13], ["2017-06-26", 0.13], ["2017-06-27", 0.1], ["2017-06-27", 0.1], ["2017-06-28", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-29", 0.1], ["2017-06-30", 0.1], ["2017-06-30", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/451 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016", "http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.16], ["2017-03-31", 0.255], ["2017-03-31", 0.675], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.95], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.08], ["2017-04-01", 0.065], ["2017-04-01", 0.065], ["2017-04-01", 0.09], ["2017-04-02", 0.09], ["2017-04-02", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.065], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.075], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.08], ["2017-04-03", 0.065], ["2017-04-03", 0.065], ["2017-04-03", 0.09], ["2017-04-03", 0.085], ["2017-04-03", 0.08], ["2017-04-04", 0.08], ["2017-04-04", 0.055], ["2017-04-04", 0.055], ["2017-04-05", 0.08], ["2017-04-06", 0.08], ["2017-04-06", 0.08], ["2017-04-06", 0.08], ["2017-04-07", 0.08], ["2017-04-07", 0.055], ["2017-04-07", 0.075], ["2017-04-07", 0.075], ["2017-04-08", 0.07], ["2017-04-08", 0.07], ["2017-04-09", 0.07], ["2017-04-09", 0.07], ["2017-04-09", 0.09], ["2017-04-09", 0.09], ["2017-04-09", 0.105], ["2017-04-09", 0.08], ["2017-04-11", 0.08], ["2017-04-11", 0.07], ["2017-04-12", 0.07], ["2017-04-12", 0.07], ["2017-04-12", 0.07], ["2017-04-13", 0.075], ["2017-04-13", 0.075], ["2017-04-13", 0.07], ["2017-04-14", 0.07], ["2017-04-14", 0.07], ["2017-04-14", 0.065], ["2017-04-15", 0.065], ["2017-04-16", 0.07], ["2017-04-16", 0.06], ["2017-04-17", 0.06], ["2017-04-17", 0.055], ["2017-04-17", 0.055], ["2017-04-18", 0.055], ["2017-04-19", 0.05], ["2017-04-19", 0.06], ["2017-04-19", 0.06], ["2017-04-20", 0.06], ["2017-04-20", 0.06], ["2017-04-21", 0.05], ["2017-04-21", 0.05], ["2017-04-22", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.05], ["2017-04-24", 0.05], ["2017-04-24", 0.05], ["2017-04-25", 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["2017-05-10", 0.05], ["2017-05-10", 0.05], ["2017-05-11", 0.05], ["2017-05-11", 0.05], ["2017-05-11", 0.05], ["2017-05-12", 0.05], ["2017-05-12", 0.05], ["2017-05-12", 0.05], ["2017-05-12", 0.05], ["2017-05-12", 0.035], ["2017-05-12", 0.02], ["2017-05-12", 0.02], ["2017-05-12", 0.015], ["2017-05-13", 0.015], ["2017-05-13", 0.015], ["2017-05-14", 0.01], ["2017-05-14", 0.01], ["2017-05-14", 0.01], ["2017-05-14", 0.01], ["2017-05-14", 0.01], ["2017-05-15", 0.02], ["2017-05-15", 0.02], ["2017-05-15", 0.02], ["2017-05-16", 0.02], ["2017-05-16", 0.02], ["2017-05-16", 0.02], ["2017-05-16", 0.02], ["2017-05-16", 0.02], ["2017-05-17", 0.02], ["2017-05-17", 0.02], ["2017-05-18", 0.02], ["2017-05-19", 0.02], ["2017-05-19", 0.02], ["2017-05-19", 0.02], ["2017-05-19", 0.02], ["2017-05-19", 0.02], ["2017-05-20", 0.02], ["2017-05-20", 0.02], ["2017-05-20", 0.02], ["2017-05-21", 0.02], ["2017-05-21", 0.02], ["2017-05-22", 0.02], ["2017-05-22", 0.02], ["2017-05-23", 0.02], ["2017-05-24", 0.02], ["2017-05-24", 0.02], ["2017-05-24", 0.02], ["2017-05-24", 0.02], ["2017-05-25", 0.02], ["2017-05-25", 0.02], ["2017-05-26", 0.02], ["2017-05-26", 0.02], ["2017-05-26", 0.02], ["2017-05-27", 0.02], ["2017-05-27", 0.02], ["2017-05-28", 0.02], ["2017-05-29", 0.02], ["2017-05-29", 0.02], ["2017-05-29", 0.02], ["2017-05-29", 0.02], ["2017-05-30", 0.02], ["2017-05-30", 0.02], ["2017-05-30", 0.02], ["2017-05-30", 0.02], ["2017-05-30", 0.02], ["2017-05-31", 0.02], ["2017-05-31", 0.02], ["2017-05-31", 0.02], ["2017-06-01", 0.02], ["2017-06-01", 0.02], ["2017-06-01", 0.02], ["2017-06-01", 0.02], ["2017-06-02", 0.02], ["2017-06-02", 0.02], ["2017-06-02", 0.02], ["2017-06-03", 0.02], ["2017-06-03", 0.02], ["2017-06-03", 0.02], ["2017-06-04", 0.02], ["2017-06-04", 0.02], ["2017-06-04", 0.02], ["2017-06-05", 0.02], ["2017-06-05", 0.02], ["2017-06-05", 0.02], ["2017-06-06", 0.02], ["2017-06-06", 0.02], ["2017-06-06", 0.02], ["2017-06-07", 0.02], ["2017-06-07", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.01], ["2017-06-09", 0.01], ["2017-06-09", 0.01], ["2017-06-09", 0.01], ["2017-06-10", 0.01], ["2017-06-10", 0.01], ["2017-06-11", 0.01], ["2017-06-11", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.01], ["2017-06-12", 0.015], ["2017-06-13", 0.015], ["2017-06-13", 0.015], ["2017-06-13", 0.015], ["2017-06-14", 0.015], ["2017-06-15", 0.015], ["2017-06-15", 0.015], ["2017-06-15", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-17", 0.015], ["2017-06-17", 0.015], ["2017-06-18", 0.015], ["2017-06-18", 0.015], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-20", 0.02], ["2017-06-20", 0.02], ["2017-06-21", 0.02], ["2017-06-21", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.03], ["2017-06-26", 0.03], ["2017-06-26", 0.03], ["2017-06-27", 0.03], ["2017-06-27", 0.03], ["2017-06-27", 0.03], ["2017-06-28", 0.03], ["2017-06-28", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/453 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g. military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g. in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["https://www.laenderdaten.info/Afrika/Burundi/terrorismus.php"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.35], ["2017-03-31", 0.08], ["2017-03-31", 0.115], ["2017-03-31", 0.075], ["2017-03-31", 0.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.1], ["2017-04-02", 0.06], ["2017-04-02", 0.055], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.04], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.04], ["2017-04-03", 0.04], ["2017-04-03", 0.04], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.03], ["2017-04-04", 0.04], ["2017-04-04", 0.04], ["2017-04-04", 0.05], ["2017-04-04", 0.05], ["2017-04-05", 0.05], ["2017-04-06", 0.09], ["2017-04-06", 0.095], ["2017-04-06", 0.095], ["2017-04-06", 0.08], ["2017-04-07", 0.095], ["2017-04-07", 0.095], ["2017-04-08", 0.095], ["2017-04-09", 0.095], ["2017-04-09", 0.1], ["2017-04-09", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], ["2017-04-12", 0.1], ["2017-04-13", 0.1], ["2017-04-13", 0.1], ["2017-04-13", 0.1], ["2017-04-13", 0.1], ["2017-04-14", 0.1], ["2017-04-14", 0.1], ["2017-04-15", 0.1], ["2017-04-17", 0.1], ["2017-04-17", 0.1], ["2017-04-17", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-18", 0.1], ["2017-04-19", 0.1], ["2017-04-19", 0.1], ["2017-04-19", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-21", 0.1], ["2017-04-21", 0.1], ["2017-04-22", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.1], ["2017-04-23", 0.095], ["2017-04-24", 0.095], ["2017-04-24", 0.095], ["2017-04-25", 0.095], ["2017-04-26", 0.08], ["2017-04-26", 0.08], ["2017-04-27", 0.08], ["2017-04-27", 0.08], ["2017-04-28", 0.08], ["2017-04-28", 0.08], ["2017-04-29", 0.08], ["2017-04-29", 0.08], ["2017-04-30", 0.07], ["2017-04-30", 0.07], ["2017-04-30", 0.07], ["2017-05-01", 0.07], 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["2017-06-13", 0.02], ["2017-06-13", 0.02], ["2017-06-15", 0.02], ["2017-06-15", 0.02], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-17", 0.015], ["2017-06-17", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-20", 0.02], ["2017-06-21", 0.02], ["2017-06-21", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-27", 0.02], ["2017-06-28", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/450 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2017/03/29/state-of-the-world-mass-killing-in-2016", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/02/24/yemen-us-should-investigate-civilian-deaths-raid"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.09], ["2017-03-31", 0.07], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.2], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-04-01", 0.25], ["2017-04-02", 0.85], ["2017-04-02", 0.59], ["2017-04-02", 0.59], ["2017-04-03", 0.24], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.105], ["2017-04-05", 0.105], ["2017-04-05", 0.13], ["2017-04-06", 0.13], ["2017-04-06", 0.2], ["2017-04-06", 0.2], ["2017-04-06", 0.2], ["2017-04-07", 0.175], ["2017-04-07", 0.245], ["2017-04-07", 0.245], ["2017-04-08", 0.245], ["2017-04-08", 0.245], ["2017-04-09", 0.245], ["2017-04-09", 0.2], ["2017-04-09", 0.25], ["2017-04-09", 0.2], ["2017-04-11", 0.2], ["2017-04-11", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], ["2017-04-12", 0.135], ["2017-04-12", 0.12], ["2017-04-13", 0.1], ["2017-04-13", 0.1], ["2017-04-13", 0.085], ["2017-04-13", 0.085], ["2017-04-13", 0.07], ["2017-04-14", 0.07], ["2017-04-14", 0.07], ["2017-04-15", 0.07], ["2017-04-17", 0.07], ["2017-04-17", 0.07], ["2017-04-19", 0.07], ["2017-04-19", 0.085], ["2017-04-20", 0.085], ["2017-04-20", 0.085], ["2017-04-21", 0.07], ["2017-04-21", 0.07], ["2017-04-22", 0.095], ["2017-04-23", 0.095], ["2017-04-24", 0.095], ["2017-04-25", 0.07], ["2017-04-26", 0.07], ["2017-04-26", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-29", 0.05], ["2017-04-30", 0.05], ["2017-04-30", 0.05], ["2017-05-02", 0.05], ["2017-05-02", 0.05], ["2017-05-03", 0.05], ["2017-05-04", 0.05], ["2017-05-05", 0.05], ["2017-05-06", 0.05], ["2017-05-07", 0.05], ["2017-05-08", 0.055], ["2017-05-08", 0.055], ["2017-05-09", 0.055], ["2017-05-09", 0.05], ["2017-05-10", 0.05], ["2017-05-10", 0.05], ["2017-05-11", 0.05], ["2017-05-11", 0.05], ["2017-05-12", 0.05], ["2017-05-12", 0.05], ["2017-05-13", 0.05], ["2017-05-14", 0.055], ["2017-05-14", 0.05], ["2017-05-14", 0.05], ["2017-05-15", 0.05], ["2017-05-15", 0.05], ["2017-05-15", 0.05], ["2017-05-15", 0.05], ["2017-05-16", 0.05], ["2017-05-16", 0.05], ["2017-05-17", 0.05], ["2017-05-23", 0.05], ["2017-05-24", 0.05], ["2017-05-29", 0.05], ["2017-05-30", 0.05], ["2017-05-30", 0.05], ["2017-05-30", 0.04], ["2017-05-31", 0.04], ["2017-05-31", 0.04], ["2017-05-31", 0.045], ["2017-06-01", 0.045], ["2017-06-02", 0.045], ["2017-06-03", 0.035], ["2017-06-03", 0.035], ["2017-06-04", 0.035], ["2017-06-05", 0.035], ["2017-06-05", 0.035], ["2017-06-06", 0.035], ["2017-06-07", 0.05], ["2017-06-08", 0.07], ["2017-06-08", 0.07], ["2017-06-08", 0.06], ["2017-06-09", 0.06], ["2017-06-09", 0.06], ["2017-06-10", 0.06], ["2017-06-12", 0.06], ["2017-06-12", 0.07], ["2017-06-13", 0.07], ["2017-06-14", 0.1], ["2017-06-16", 0.1], ["2017-06-17", 0.06], ["2017-06-17", 0.06], ["2017-06-17", 0.08], ["2017-06-18", 0.08], ["2017-06-18", 0.08], ["2017-06-19", 0.08], ["2017-06-21", 0.08], ["2017-06-22", 0.08], ["2017-06-23", 0.09], ["2017-06-23", 0.09], ["2017-06-23", 0.11], ["2017-06-24", 0.11], ["2017-06-24", 0.11], ["2017-06-24", 0.11], ["2017-06-26", 0.12], ["2017-06-26", 0.12], ["2017-06-27", 0.12], ["2017-06-28", 0.12], ["2017-06-29", 0.12], ["2017-06-29", 0.12], ["2017-06-30", 0.12], ["2017-06-30", 0.135], ["2017-06-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-01", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/446 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
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This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483", "http://www.nigeriatoday.ng/2017/06/usaid-wades-into-fulani-herdsmenfarmer-conflicts-in-nigeria/", "https://issafrica.org/iss-today/less-armed-conflict-but-more-political-violence-in-africa", "http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ACLED_Conflict-Trends-Report-No.55-February-2017_pdf..pdf", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201705290074.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/05/50-years-nigeria-biafra-secessionist-movement-170529151102396.html", "https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/04/25/fg-to-hold-national-conference-on-herdsmen-farmers-conflict-in-june/", "http://www.globalresearch.ca/hybrid-war-can-wreak-havoc-across-west-africa-2/5584061", "https://www.businessdayonline.com/nigeria-reaffirms-commitment-protect-civilians-armed-conflicts/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/19/world/africa/trump-special-forces-navy-seals.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/09/nigeria-baga-massacre-boko-haram-1-year-on", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/nigeria-boko-haram/", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201704270276.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/10/u-s-looks-to-sell-ground-attack-aircraft-to-nigeria-report-says/?utm_term=.093f9d84f900", "http://www.acleddata.com/trend-4-trends-in-violence-by-country-in-2016/", "https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/257738.pdf", "http://www.nigeriatoday.ng/2017/06/security-a-conflicting-story-of-sadness-and-joy/", "http://ucdp.uu.se/#/exploratory", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/2018_blueprint.pdf", "https://www.armytimes.com/articles/soldiers-deploy-to-central-africa-to-support-the-fight-against-boko-haram", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/11/africa/un-famine-starvation-aid/"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.34], ["2017-03-31", 0.295], ["2017-03-31", 0.625], 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["2017-07-01", 0.16], ["2017-07-01", 0.16]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/448 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257514.htm"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.04], ["2017-03-31", 0.02], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.225], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.11], ["2017-04-01", 0.16], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-02", 0.075], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.04], ["2017-04-03", 0.03], ["2017-04-03", 0.03], ["2017-04-03", 0.04], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-04", 0.06], ["2017-04-04", 0.07], ["2017-04-04", 0.07], ["2017-04-05", 0.07], ["2017-04-05", 0.07], ["2017-04-05", 0.075], ["2017-04-06", 0.075], ["2017-04-06", 0.07], ["2017-04-06", 0.07], ["2017-04-06", 0.07], ["2017-04-06", 0.07], ["2017-04-07", 0.06], ["2017-04-07", 0.075], ["2017-04-07", 0.065], ["2017-04-07", 0.065], ["2017-04-08", 0.065], ["2017-04-08", 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["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/452 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-referendum-idUKKBN1733PN", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-dead-erdogan-military-chief-ankara-istanbul-death-toll-plotters-how-many-killed-wounded-a7140376.html", "http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/nearly-7000-civilians-killed-by-pkk-in-31-years-2237092"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.12], ["2017-03-31", 0.135], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.925], ["2017-03-31", 0.85], ["2017-03-31", 0.85], ["2017-03-31", 0.55], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.31], ["2017-04-01", 0.385], ["2017-04-01", 0.385], ["2017-04-01", 0.35], ["2017-04-01", 0.2], ["2017-04-01", 0.275], ["2017-04-01", 0.275], ["2017-04-01", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.17], ["2017-04-02", 0.155], ["2017-04-02", 0.155], ["2017-04-02", 0.155], ["2017-04-02", 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["2017-06-19", 0.03], ["2017-06-20", 0.03], ["2017-06-20", 0.03], ["2017-06-21", 0.03], ["2017-06-21", 0.02], ["2017-06-21", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-27", 0.02], ["2017-06-27", 0.02], ["2017-06-27", 0.02], ["2017-06-28", 0.02], ["2017-06-28", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/455 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.philippinesnews.net/news/253433511/philippines-air-strikes-accidentally-kill-a-dozen-of-its-own-soldiers-instead-of-terrorists", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/30/asia/philippines-marawi-isis-hapilon/index.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38793008", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/dutertes-war-on-drugs-in-the-philippines-by-the-numbers/", "http://www.start.umd.edu/start/announcements/announcement.asp?id=609", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-05-30/philippines-lawmakers-want-debate-on-martial-law-amid-siege", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-militants-foreigners-idUSKBN18Q0OO", "http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/902418/marawi-evacuees-reach-Cebu", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-drugs-idUSKBN16H1YV", "http://www.particlenews.com/n/07aXGXnt/Philippines%20Becomes%20Hotbed%20For%20ISIS%20Activity%20As%20Foreign%20Jihadis%20Join%20The%20Fight?s=home", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/18/duterte-has-a-name-for-innocent-people-killed-in-the-philippines-drug-war-collateral-damage/?utm_term=.f31d697854ed", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2016/09/04/philippine-president-muslim-terrorist-group-ready-for-bitter-fight-to-the-finish/#499aa83353b6", "http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/902389/dozens-flee-terrorists-in-war-torn-marawi", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jan/05/rodrigo-dutertes-drug-war-in-the-philippines-is-out-of-control-he-needs-to-be-stopped?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism", "https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/news/testimony/the-terrorist-threat-confronting-the-united-states", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/dutertes-war-on-terror-also-looks-like-a-war-on-civilians/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_Philippines"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.08], ["2017-03-31", 0.065], 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["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-19", 0.2], ["2017-06-19", 0.2], ["2017-06-19", 0.2], ["2017-06-20", 0.2], ["2017-06-20", 0.2], ["2017-06-20", 0.2], ["2017-06-21", 0.2], ["2017-06-21", 0.2], ["2017-06-22", 0.2], ["2017-06-22", 0.2], ["2017-06-22", 0.2], ["2017-06-22", 0.2], ["2017-06-22", 0.2], ["2017-06-23", 0.2], ["2017-06-23", 0.2], ["2017-06-23", 0.2], ["2017-06-24", 0.2], ["2017-06-24", 0.2], ["2017-06-24", 0.2], ["2017-06-25", 0.2], ["2017-06-25", 0.2], ["2017-06-26", 0.2], ["2017-06-26", 0.2], ["2017-06-26", 0.2], ["2017-06-26", 0.2], ["2017-06-27", 0.21], ["2017-06-27", 0.21], ["2017-06-27", 0.21], ["2017-06-27", 0.21], ["2017-06-28", 0.21], ["2017-06-28", 0.21], ["2017-06-29", 0.21], ["2017-06-29", 0.2], ["2017-06-29", 0.2], ["2017-06-29", 0.2], ["2017-06-29", 0.175], ["2017-06-30", 0.175], ["2017-06-30", 0.175], ["2017-07-01", 0.175], ["2017-07-01", 0.175], ["2017-07-01", 0.175]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/459 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Phillipines from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
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This question was closed as Yes (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines? | gjopen | 1 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/257738.pdf"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.035], ["2017-04-01", 0.02], ["2017-04-01", 0.035], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.02], ["2017-04-01", 0.02], ["2017-04-02", 0.02], ["2017-04-02", 0.035], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-02", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.035], ["2017-04-03", 0.015], ["2017-04-03", 0.01], ["2017-04-03", 0.01], ["2017-04-03", 0.01], ["2017-04-03", 0.015], ["2017-04-03", 0.01], ["2017-04-03", 0.005], ["2017-04-04", 0.01], ["2017-04-04", 0.01], ["2017-04-04", 0.01], ["2017-04-05", 0.005], ["2017-04-05", 0.005], ["2017-04-05", 0.015], ["2017-04-06", 0.01], ["2017-04-06", 0.01], 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["2017-06-13", 0.01], ["2017-06-15", 0.01], ["2017-06-15", 0.01], ["2017-06-16", 0.01], ["2017-06-16", 0.01], ["2017-06-17", 0.01], ["2017-06-17", 0.01], ["2017-06-18", 0.01], ["2017-06-18", 0.01], ["2017-06-18", 0.01], ["2017-06-18", 0.01], ["2017-06-19", 0.01], ["2017-06-19", 0.01], ["2017-06-21", 0.01], ["2017-06-22", 0.01], ["2017-06-22", 0.01], ["2017-06-23", 0.01], ["2017-06-23", 0.01], ["2017-06-24", 0.01], ["2017-06-24", 0.01], ["2017-06-25", 0.01], ["2017-06-26", 0.01], ["2017-06-26", 0.01], ["2017-06-26", 0.01], ["2017-06-27", 0.01], ["2017-06-27", 0.01], ["2017-06-28", 0.01], ["2017-06-29", 0.01], ["2017-06-29", 0.01], ["2017-06-29", 0.01], ["2017-06-29", 0.01], ["2017-06-30", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/457 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-04 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/myanmar-arrests-buddhists-accused-targeting-muslims-170512220527691.html", "http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/myanmar-rohingya-crisis2/", "http://www.atimes.com/article/myanmars-peace-process-descends-farce/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/opinion/a-cruel-april-in-kashmir.html?_r=0", "http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/2017-by-elections-in-myanmar-warning-signal-for-suu-kyi_skundu_050417"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.6], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.15], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.4], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.125], ["2017-04-01", 0.08], ["2017-04-02", 0.1], ["2017-04-02", 0.1], ["2017-04-02", 0.125], ["2017-04-02", 0.175], ["2017-04-02", 0.125], ["2017-04-02", 0.15], 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0.045], ["2017-06-15", 0.045], ["2017-06-15", 0.045], ["2017-06-16", 0.045], ["2017-06-16", 0.045], ["2017-06-17", 0.045], ["2017-06-17", 0.05], ["2017-06-18", 0.05], ["2017-06-18", 0.05], ["2017-06-18", 0.05], ["2017-06-18", 0.05], ["2017-06-19", 0.05], ["2017-06-19", 0.05], ["2017-06-19", 0.05], ["2017-06-19", 0.05], ["2017-06-20", 0.05], ["2017-06-20", 0.05], ["2017-06-21", 0.05], ["2017-06-21", 0.05], ["2017-06-22", 0.05], ["2017-06-22", 0.05], ["2017-06-22", 0.05], ["2017-06-23", 0.05], ["2017-06-23", 0.05], ["2017-06-23", 0.05], ["2017-06-24", 0.05], ["2017-06-24", 0.05], ["2017-06-24", 0.05], ["2017-06-24", 0.05], ["2017-06-25", 0.05], ["2017-06-25", 0.05], ["2017-06-25", 0.05], ["2017-06-26", 0.05], ["2017-06-26", 0.05], ["2017-06-26", 0.05], ["2017-06-26", 0.05], ["2017-06-26", 0.05], ["2017-06-27", 0.045], ["2017-06-27", 0.045], ["2017-06-27", 0.045], ["2017-06-28", 0.045], ["2017-06-28", 0.045], ["2017-06-29", 0.045], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-29", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.03], ["2017-06-30", 0.04], ["2017-07-01", 0.04], ["2017-07-01", 0.04], ["2017-07-01", 0.04]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/447 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as Yes (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar? | gjopen | 1 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ACLED_Africa_Country-Reports_Ethiopia_June-2017_pdf.pdf", "https://theglobalobservatory.org/2017/06/ethiopia-protests-oromo-addis-ababa-master-plan/"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.25], ["2017-03-31", 0.04], ["2017-03-31", 0.045], ["2017-03-31", 0.525], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-03-31", 0.95], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.125], ["2017-04-01", 0.195], ["2017-04-01", 0.245], ["2017-04-01", 0.24], ["2017-04-01", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.24], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.22], ["2017-04-02", 0.2], ["2017-04-02", 0.17], ["2017-04-03", 0.11], ["2017-04-03", 0.065], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-03", 0.05], ["2017-04-04", 0.05], ["2017-04-04", 0.05], ["2017-04-04", 0.05], ["2017-04-05", 0.05], 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["2017-06-04", 0.02], ["2017-06-04", 0.02], ["2017-06-05", 0.02], ["2017-06-06", 0.02], ["2017-06-06", 0.02], ["2017-06-06", 0.02], ["2017-06-07", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.015], ["2017-06-09", 0.015], ["2017-06-09", 0.015], ["2017-06-09", 0.015], ["2017-06-10", 0.015], ["2017-06-11", 0.015], ["2017-06-12", 0.015], ["2017-06-12", 0.015], ["2017-06-12", 0.015], ["2017-06-12", 0.015], ["2017-06-13", 0.015], ["2017-06-13", 0.015], ["2017-06-15", 0.015], ["2017-06-15", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-16", 0.015], ["2017-06-17", 0.015], ["2017-06-17", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-18", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-19", 0.02], ["2017-06-20", 0.02], ["2017-06-20", 0.02], ["2017-06-20", 0.02], ["2017-06-20", 0.02], ["2017-06-21", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-22", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-23", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-24", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-25", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-26", 0.02], ["2017-06-27", 0.02], ["2017-06-28", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-29", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-06-30", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02], ["2017-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/456 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
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<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/27/kabul-explosion-hours-after-kunar-suicide-bombing-afghan", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/afghan-civilian-casualties-2016-170206062807210.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-idUSKBN1941Y1", "https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257526.htm"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.42], ["2017-03-31", 0.36], ["2017-03-31", 0.4], ["2017-03-31", 0.75], ["2017-03-31", 1.0], ["2017-03-31", 1.0], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.575], ["2017-03-31", 0.5], ["2017-04-01", 0.45], ["2017-04-01", 0.45], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.54], ["2017-04-01", 0.6], ["2017-04-01", 0.6], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-01", 0.575], ["2017-04-02", 0.575], ["2017-04-02", 0.55], ["2017-04-02", 0.55], ["2017-04-02", 0.46], ["2017-04-02", 0.455], ["2017-04-02", 0.34], ["2017-04-03", 0.235], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-03", 0.15], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-04", 0.15], ["2017-04-04", 0.17], ["2017-04-05", 0.135], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-05", 0.15], ["2017-04-06", 0.135], ["2017-04-06", 0.135], ["2017-04-06", 0.15], ["2017-04-06", 0.15], ["2017-04-06", 0.15], ["2017-04-06", 0.15], ["2017-04-07", 0.15], ["2017-04-07", 0.15], ["2017-04-08", 0.15], ["2017-04-09", 0.15], ["2017-04-09", 0.17], ["2017-04-09", 0.195], ["2017-04-10", 0.2], ["2017-04-10", 0.2], ["2017-04-11", 0.2], ["2017-04-11", 0.2], ["2017-04-11", 0.2], ["2017-04-12", 0.2], ["2017-04-13", 0.205], ["2017-04-13", 0.205], ["2017-04-13", 0.205], ["2017-04-13", 0.21], ["2017-04-14", 0.21], ["2017-04-14", 0.21], ["2017-04-15", 0.21], ["2017-04-17", 0.21], ["2017-04-17", 0.205], ["2017-04-17", 0.205], ["2017-04-18", 0.205], ["2017-04-18", 0.23], ["2017-04-18", 0.23], ["2017-04-19", 0.23], ["2017-04-19", 0.23], ["2017-04-19", 0.23], ["2017-04-20", 0.21], ["2017-04-20", 0.21], ["2017-04-20", 0.21], ["2017-04-21", 0.21], ["2017-04-21", 0.21], ["2017-04-21", 0.15], ["2017-04-22", 0.15], ["2017-04-22", 0.15], ["2017-04-23", 0.15], ["2017-04-23", 0.15], ["2017-04-23", 0.15], ["2017-04-23", 0.15], ["2017-04-24", 0.15], ["2017-04-24", 0.15], ["2017-04-24", 0.18], ["2017-04-24", 0.18], ["2017-04-25", 0.18], ["2017-04-25", 0.18], ["2017-04-25", 0.18], ["2017-04-26", 0.21], ["2017-04-26", 0.21], ["2017-04-26", 0.21], ["2017-04-26", 0.21], ["2017-04-26", 0.21], ["2017-04-27", 0.21], ["2017-04-27", 0.21], ["2017-04-27", 0.21], ["2017-04-28", 0.21], ["2017-04-28", 0.21], ["2017-04-28", 0.21], ["2017-04-29", 0.21], ["2017-04-29", 0.21], ["2017-04-29", 0.21], ["2017-04-30", 0.21], ["2017-04-30", 0.18], ["2017-04-30", 0.18], ["2017-04-30", 0.18], ["2017-05-01", 0.18], ["2017-05-01", 0.18], ["2017-05-01", 0.145], ["2017-05-02", 0.145], ["2017-05-02", 0.145], ["2017-05-02", 0.145], ["2017-05-02", 0.2], ["2017-05-02", 0.145], ["2017-05-03", 0.145], ["2017-05-03", 0.145], ["2017-05-04", 0.145], ["2017-05-04", 0.145], ["2017-05-05", 0.145], ["2017-05-06", 0.145], ["2017-05-06", 0.145], ["2017-05-06", 0.145], ["2017-05-06", 0.145], ["2017-05-06", 0.145], ["2017-05-07", 0.145], ["2017-05-07", 0.145], ["2017-05-07", 0.145], ["2017-05-08", 0.14], ["2017-05-08", 0.14], ["2017-05-08", 0.14], ["2017-05-08", 0.14], ["2017-05-09", 0.14], ["2017-05-09", 0.14], ["2017-05-09", 0.14], ["2017-05-09", 0.14], ["2017-05-09", 0.125], ["2017-05-09", 0.125], ["2017-05-09", 0.125], ["2017-05-10", 0.125], ["2017-05-10", 0.125], ["2017-05-10", 0.125], ["2017-05-10", 0.125], ["2017-05-11", 0.125], ["2017-05-11", 0.125], ["2017-05-11", 0.125], ["2017-05-12", 0.105], ["2017-05-12", 0.105], ["2017-05-12", 0.125], ["2017-05-12", 0.125], ["2017-05-12", 0.14], ["2017-05-12", 0.11], ["2017-05-12", 0.125], ["2017-05-12", 0.105], ["2017-05-12", 0.105], ["2017-05-12", 0.105], ["2017-05-13", 0.105], ["2017-05-13", 0.105], ["2017-05-13", 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["2017-05-30", 0.105], ["2017-05-30", 0.105], ["2017-05-30", 0.105], ["2017-05-31", 0.105], ["2017-05-31", 0.105], ["2017-05-31", 0.105], ["2017-06-01", 0.105], ["2017-06-01", 0.105], ["2017-06-01", 0.13], ["2017-06-01", 0.13], ["2017-06-01", 0.13], ["2017-06-02", 0.13], ["2017-06-02", 0.13], ["2017-06-02", 0.15], ["2017-06-02", 0.15], ["2017-06-03", 0.15], ["2017-06-03", 0.15], ["2017-06-04", 0.15], ["2017-06-04", 0.15], ["2017-06-04", 0.15], ["2017-06-05", 0.15], ["2017-06-05", 0.15], ["2017-06-05", 0.15], ["2017-06-06", 0.15], ["2017-06-06", 0.15], ["2017-06-06", 0.15], ["2017-06-06", 0.15], ["2017-06-07", 0.15], ["2017-06-07", 0.15], ["2017-06-08", 0.15], ["2017-06-08", 0.15], ["2017-06-08", 0.15], ["2017-06-08", 0.15], ["2017-06-08", 0.13], ["2017-06-09", 0.13], ["2017-06-09", 0.13], ["2017-06-09", 0.13], ["2017-06-09", 0.13], ["2017-06-10", 0.13], ["2017-06-10", 0.13], ["2017-06-10", 0.125], ["2017-06-11", 0.125], ["2017-06-11", 0.125], ["2017-06-12", 0.125], ["2017-06-12", 0.125], ["2017-06-12", 0.125], ["2017-06-12", 0.125], ["2017-06-12", 0.15], ["2017-06-12", 0.15], ["2017-06-13", 0.15], ["2017-06-13", 0.15], ["2017-06-13", 0.15], ["2017-06-14", 0.15], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-16", 0.125], ["2017-06-16", 0.125], ["2017-06-16", 0.125], ["2017-06-16", 0.125], ["2017-06-16", 0.125], ["2017-06-16", 0.125], ["2017-06-16", 0.125], ["2017-06-17", 0.125], ["2017-06-17", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-18", 0.15], ["2017-06-19", 0.15], ["2017-06-19", 0.15], ["2017-06-19", 0.15], ["2017-06-20", 0.15], ["2017-06-20", 0.175], ["2017-06-20", 0.175], ["2017-06-21", 0.175], ["2017-06-21", 0.175], ["2017-06-22", 0.175], ["2017-06-22", 0.175], ["2017-06-22", 0.175], ["2017-06-23", 0.175], ["2017-06-23", 0.175], ["2017-06-23", 0.175], ["2017-06-24", 0.175], ["2017-06-24", 0.175], ["2017-06-24", 0.175], ["2017-06-25", 0.175], ["2017-06-25", 0.175], ["2017-06-25", 0.175], ["2017-06-26", 0.175], ["2017-06-26", 0.2], ["2017-06-26", 0.2], ["2017-06-26", 0.2], ["2017-06-27", 0.2], ["2017-06-27", 0.2], ["2017-06-27", 0.2], ["2017-06-28", 0.2], ["2017-06-28", 0.2], ["2017-06-29", 0.2], ["2017-06-29", 0.2], ["2017-06-29", 0.2], ["2017-06-29", 0.2], ["2017-06-30", 0.2], ["2017-06-30", 0.2], ["2017-07-01", 0.2], ["2017-07-01", 0.2], ["2017-07-01", 0.2]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/449 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
<sub>If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on other questions in this challenge: <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/16-early-warning-project-2017-2018"target = "_blank">Early Warning Project 2017 - 2018</a></sub>
This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-05 | 2017-03-31 | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/06/fears-uns-darfur-peacekeeping-cuts-170629091056568.html", "http://www.chron.com/news/crime/article/South-Sudan-pro-government-forces-blamed-for-11158129.php"] | binary | [["2017-03-31", 0.38], ["2017-03-31", 0.15], ["2017-03-31", 0.075], ["2017-03-31", 0.125], ["2017-03-31", 0.175], ["2017-03-31", 0.1], ["2017-04-01", 0.05], ["2017-04-01", 0.075], ["2017-04-01", 0.4], ["2017-04-01", 0.43], ["2017-04-01", 0.65], ["2017-04-01", 0.65], ["2017-04-01", 0.625], ["2017-04-01", 0.58], ["2017-04-01", 0.58], ["2017-04-01", 0.44], ["2017-04-02", 0.58], ["2017-04-02", 0.56], ["2017-04-02", 0.32], ["2017-04-02", 0.28], ["2017-04-02", 0.265], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.25], ["2017-04-03", 0.235], ["2017-04-03", 0.235], ["2017-04-04", 0.25], ["2017-04-04", 0.25], ["2017-04-04", 0.235], ["2017-04-04", 0.235], ["2017-04-04", 0.235], ["2017-04-05", 0.255], ["2017-04-05", 0.255], ["2017-04-05", 0.255], ["2017-04-06", 0.25], ["2017-04-06", 0.25], ["2017-04-06", 0.24], ["2017-04-06", 0.245], ["2017-04-06", 0.235], ["2017-04-06", 0.23], ["2017-04-06", 0.245], ["2017-04-07", 0.245], ["2017-04-07", 0.23], ["2017-04-08", 0.225], ["2017-04-09", 0.225], ["2017-04-09", 0.25], ["2017-04-09", 0.3], ["2017-04-11", 0.4], ["2017-04-11", 0.4], ["2017-04-11", 0.275], ["2017-04-12", 0.275], ["2017-04-12", 0.225], ["2017-04-13", 0.2], ["2017-04-13", 0.25], ["2017-04-13", 0.25], ["2017-04-13", 0.225], ["2017-04-13", 0.19], ["2017-04-14", 0.165], ["2017-04-14", 0.15], ["2017-04-15", 0.15], ["2017-04-16", 0.15], ["2017-04-17", 0.15], ["2017-04-17", 0.15], ["2017-04-19", 0.15], ["2017-04-19", 0.15], ["2017-04-20", 0.15], ["2017-04-21", 0.15], ["2017-04-21", 0.15], ["2017-04-23", 0.15], ["2017-04-23", 0.15], ["2017-04-24", 0.15], ["2017-04-26", 0.155], ["2017-04-26", 0.15], ["2017-04-27", 0.16], ["2017-04-27", 0.16], ["2017-04-28", 0.16], ["2017-04-29", 0.16], ["2017-04-29", 0.155], ["2017-04-30", 0.155], ["2017-04-30", 0.155], ["2017-04-30", 0.155], ["2017-05-01", 0.155], ["2017-05-02", 0.155], ["2017-05-02", 0.155], ["2017-05-03", 0.155], ["2017-05-04", 0.155], ["2017-05-04", 0.155], ["2017-05-05", 0.155], ["2017-05-05", 0.155], ["2017-05-06", 0.155], ["2017-05-06", 0.155], ["2017-05-06", 0.155], ["2017-05-07", 0.155], ["2017-05-07", 0.155], ["2017-05-08", 0.15], ["2017-05-08", 0.16], ["2017-05-08", 0.16], ["2017-05-08", 0.16], ["2017-05-09", 0.15], ["2017-05-09", 0.15], ["2017-05-09", 0.15], ["2017-05-10", 0.15], ["2017-05-10", 0.15], ["2017-05-10", 0.15], ["2017-05-11", 0.15], ["2017-05-11", 0.15], ["2017-05-12", 0.155], ["2017-05-12", 0.155], ["2017-05-12", 0.155], ["2017-05-13", 0.155], ["2017-05-13", 0.155], ["2017-05-14", 0.145], ["2017-05-14", 0.145], ["2017-05-14", 0.145], ["2017-05-15", 0.145], ["2017-05-15", 0.145], ["2017-05-15", 0.145], ["2017-05-16", 0.145], ["2017-05-16", 0.145], ["2017-05-16", 0.145], ["2017-05-17", 0.155], ["2017-05-17", 0.155], ["2017-05-19", 0.155], ["2017-05-19", 0.155], ["2017-05-20", 0.155], ["2017-05-22", 0.155], ["2017-05-23", 0.16], ["2017-05-24", 0.16], ["2017-05-24", 0.16], ["2017-05-24", 0.16], ["2017-05-25", 0.16], ["2017-05-25", 0.16], ["2017-05-26", 0.16], ["2017-05-27", 0.16], ["2017-05-29", 0.16], ["2017-05-29", 0.16], ["2017-05-29", 0.16], ["2017-05-30", 0.16], ["2017-05-30", 0.16], ["2017-05-30", 0.16], ["2017-05-30", 0.16], ["2017-05-31", 0.16], ["2017-05-31", 0.16], ["2017-06-01", 0.16], ["2017-06-01", 0.16], ["2017-06-02", 0.155], ["2017-06-02", 0.155], ["2017-06-03", 0.155], ["2017-06-03", 0.16], ["2017-06-03", 0.17], ["2017-06-04", 0.17], ["2017-06-04", 0.17], ["2017-06-05", 0.17], ["2017-06-05", 0.17], ["2017-06-06", 0.17], ["2017-06-06", 0.17], ["2017-06-07", 0.17], ["2017-06-08", 0.17], ["2017-06-08", 0.17], ["2017-06-08", 0.18], ["2017-06-08", 0.18], ["2017-06-08", 0.16], ["2017-06-09", 0.16], ["2017-06-09", 0.16], ["2017-06-10", 0.16], ["2017-06-11", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.16], ["2017-06-12", 0.2], ["2017-06-13", 0.2], ["2017-06-13", 0.2], ["2017-06-15", 0.2], ["2017-06-15", 0.2], ["2017-06-16", 0.2], ["2017-06-16", 0.2], ["2017-06-17", 0.2], ["2017-06-17", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-18", 0.2], ["2017-06-19", 0.2], ["2017-06-20", 0.225], ["2017-06-20", 0.245], ["2017-06-20", 0.245], ["2017-06-20", 0.25], ["2017-06-21", 0.25], ["2017-06-21", 0.25], ["2017-06-22", 0.25], ["2017-06-22", 0.25], ["2017-06-23", 0.25], ["2017-06-23", 0.25], ["2017-06-24", 0.25], ["2017-06-24", 0.25], ["2017-06-24", 0.25], ["2017-06-25", 0.25], ["2017-06-26", 0.25], ["2017-06-26", 0.25], ["2017-06-26", 0.25], ["2017-06-27", 0.25], ["2017-06-28", 0.25], ["2017-06-29", 0.25], ["2017-06-29", 0.25], ["2017-06-29", 0.25], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-06-30", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.25], ["2017-07-01", 0.25]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/445 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJ Open</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
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This question was closed as no (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/ewp"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>).
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-01 | Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-08-14 | 2017-04-04 | ["http://africanarguments.org/2017/07/12/kenyatta-vs-odinga-a-study-in-contrasts/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/kenyan-opposition-refuses-to-sign-off-on-election-charade", "https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250012/ipsos-and-infotrak-differ-yet-again-on-who-will-win-presidential-election", "http://nairobinews.nation.co.ke/news/uhuru-plans-salvage-campaign-shunning-tv-debate/", "https://kenopalo.com/2017/05/31/uhuru-kenyatta-ahead-of-raila-odinga-in-the-first-post-nomination-poll/", "http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Presidential-debate-Uhuru-cancels-Samburu-tour/1064-4029880-nb81rk/index.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40774938", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/506525", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5495/Will-Uhuru-Kenyatta-be-re-elected-president-of-Kenya-in-2017#data", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/02/africa/kenya-election-guide/index.html", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/247833-uhuru-lures-north-eastern-voters-multi-billion-projects.html", "http://rasqoh.com/a-presidency-under-siege-will-uhuru-kenyatta-win-reelection/", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/247608-confusion-woman-discovers-live-snake-home-door-calls-police.html", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/247484-second-opinion-poll-raila-lead-uhuru-kenyatta.html", "http://bit.ly/2tDJIjP", "http://africanarguments.org/2017/07/10/kenya-2017-elections-will-be-like-none-before-heres-why/", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201707110217.html", "http://bit.ly/2vNogdS", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/world/africa/kenya-election-kenyatta-odinga.html?_r=0", "https://www.johnnybet.com/2017-kenya-presidential-election-predictions", "https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250136/opinion-poll-puts-uhuru-kenyatta-in-the-lead-with-53pc", "http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/07/kenya-president-kenyatta-skips-presidential-debate-170725045114754.html", "http://www.dw.com/en/kenya-fears-of-rigging-ahead-of-election/a-39612229", "https://www.tuko.co.ke/248083-kdf-reacts-raila-releases-documents-claiming-military-rig-elections.html", "https://www.cfr.org/blog-post/polls-tighten-run-kenyas-presidential-election"] | binary | [["2017-04-04", 0.8], ["2017-04-04", 0.84], ["2017-04-04", 0.925], ["2017-04-05", 0.9], ["2017-04-05", 0.9], ["2017-04-06", 0.935], ["2017-04-06", 0.92], ["2017-04-06", 0.92], ["2017-04-06", 0.895], ["2017-04-06", 0.97], ["2017-04-07", 0.94], ["2017-04-07", 0.945], ["2017-04-07", 0.96], ["2017-04-07", 0.9], ["2017-04-07", 0.9], ["2017-04-08", 0.9], ["2017-04-09", 0.93], ["2017-04-09", 0.95], ["2017-04-10", 0.94], ["2017-04-10", 0.94], ["2017-04-11", 0.95], ["2017-04-11", 0.94], ["2017-04-12", 0.915], ["2017-04-13", 0.915], ["2017-04-14", 0.915], ["2017-04-14", 0.95], ["2017-04-15", 0.95], ["2017-04-16", 0.95], ["2017-04-17", 0.95], ["2017-04-17", 0.925], ["2017-04-18", 0.925], ["2017-04-19", 0.9], ["2017-04-19", 0.9], ["2017-04-20", 0.9], ["2017-04-20", 0.9], ["2017-04-21", 0.925], ["2017-04-22", 0.9], ["2017-04-23", 0.9], ["2017-04-23", 0.9], ["2017-04-24", 0.9], ["2017-04-24", 0.9], ["2017-04-25", 0.9], ["2017-04-26", 0.9], ["2017-04-27", 0.89], ["2017-04-27", 0.89], ["2017-04-28", 0.89], ["2017-04-28", 0.86], ["2017-04-29", 0.88], ["2017-04-30", 0.85], ["2017-04-30", 0.85], ["2017-05-01", 0.865], ["2017-05-02", 0.845], ["2017-05-02", 0.85], ["2017-05-03", 0.85], ["2017-05-03", 0.85], ["2017-05-03", 0.85], ["2017-05-04", 0.85], ["2017-05-05", 0.85], ["2017-05-07", 0.85], ["2017-05-08", 0.85], ["2017-05-09", 0.85], ["2017-05-09", 0.85], ["2017-05-10", 0.86], ["2017-05-10", 0.86], ["2017-05-11", 0.875], ["2017-05-11", 0.9], ["2017-05-12", 0.9], ["2017-05-12", 0.89], ["2017-05-12", 0.885], ["2017-05-13", 0.885], ["2017-05-14", 0.85], ["2017-05-14", 0.85], ["2017-05-15", 0.85], ["2017-05-15", 0.86], ["2017-05-16", 0.86], ["2017-05-17", 0.885], ["2017-05-17", 0.885], ["2017-05-18", 0.895], ["2017-05-19", 0.89], ["2017-05-20", 0.88], ["2017-05-20", 0.88], ["2017-05-20", 0.88], ["2017-05-21", 0.86], ["2017-05-22", 0.86], ["2017-05-22", 0.87], ["2017-05-23", 0.89], ["2017-05-23", 0.895], ["2017-05-24", 0.895], ["2017-05-24", 0.895], ["2017-05-25", 0.895], ["2017-05-25", 0.895], ["2017-05-25", 0.9], ["2017-05-26", 0.9], ["2017-05-26", 0.9], ["2017-05-27", 0.9], ["2017-05-28", 0.9], ["2017-05-28", 0.9], ["2017-05-28", 0.9], ["2017-05-29", 0.9], ["2017-05-30", 0.9], ["2017-05-30", 0.9], ["2017-05-30", 0.9], ["2017-05-31", 0.9], ["2017-05-31", 0.9], ["2017-05-31", 0.895], ["2017-06-01", 0.895], ["2017-06-02", 0.895], ["2017-06-02", 0.89], ["2017-06-02", 0.89], ["2017-06-03", 0.89], ["2017-06-04", 0.895], ["2017-06-04", 0.895], ["2017-06-05", 0.895], ["2017-06-06", 0.895], ["2017-06-06", 0.895], ["2017-06-06", 0.9], ["2017-06-07", 0.9], ["2017-06-08", 0.9], ["2017-06-08", 0.9], ["2017-06-09", 0.9], ["2017-06-09", 0.9], ["2017-06-10", 0.9], ["2017-06-10", 0.9], ["2017-06-11", 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["2017-08-03", 0.8], ["2017-08-03", 0.8], ["2017-08-03", 0.8], ["2017-08-04", 0.8], ["2017-08-04", 0.8], ["2017-08-04", 0.8], ["2017-08-04", 0.8], ["2017-08-04", 0.8], ["2017-08-04", 0.8], ["2017-08-05", 0.79], ["2017-08-05", 0.79], ["2017-08-05", 0.8], ["2017-08-05", 0.8], ["2017-08-06", 0.8], ["2017-08-06", 0.8], ["2017-08-06", 0.8], ["2017-08-06", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.785], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-07", 0.8], ["2017-08-08", 0.8]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/460 | Uhuru Kenyatta will seek re-election in August 2017 (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12629/politics-unusual?navigation=true"target=_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-16/kenya-s-elections-who-s-who-guide-to-the-main-political-players"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.
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Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner of Kenya's 2017 election. This question closed on "a) yes," with and end date of 11 August 2017
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-08-08 | Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya’s August 2017 presidential election? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-07-18 | 2017-04-04 | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-eu-idUSKBN19430R", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-gdp-idUSKCN18B14M", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/imf-chief-urges-eurozone-to-back-greece-debt-relief-8841610", "http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/05/02/pr17145-statement-by-the-ec-esm-ecb-and-imf-on-negotiations-with-greece", "https://www.ft.com/content/6c2d629a-2f01-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a", "https://www.esm.europa.eu/assistance/greece", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-debt-idUSKBN18X1SO", "http://www.politico.eu/article/greeces-elusive-debt-fix/", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/french-presidential-election-results-2017-emmanuel-macron-victory-marine-le-pen-investors-economists-a7723456.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-esm-idUSKBN19S1ZT", "http://euandgreece.blogactiv.eu/2017/02/02/is-the-imf-necessary-for-the-3rd-greek-program/", "https://www.ft.com/content/dfbe5e06-3f43-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-22/greek-debt-relief-deal-fails-last-minute-germany-imf-clash", "http://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr052516", "https://euobserver.com/economic/137736", "https://www.esm.europa.eu/interviews/letter-editor-frankfurter-allgemeine-zeitung", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-debt-idUSKBN18H14J", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-seeks-inclusion-in-ecbs-stimulus-plan-1496078306", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-parliament-vote-idUSKCN18E32I", "http://www.ekathimerini.com/219410/article/ekathimerini/business/esm-chief-optimistic-on-greece-but-advises-patience", "https://www.ft.com/content/bc4e6c62-3887-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKCN18C1XG", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-bailout-idUSKBN1871I9", "http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=2435922", 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["2017-07-07", 1.0], ["2017-07-07", 1.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/461 | The third economic adjustment programme for Greece started in August 2015 (<a href = "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/financial-assistance-eurozone-members/greece-programme/"target="_blank">The European Council</a>). Two tranches of funds have been released, with the release of the third tranche currently under negotiation (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38910575"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.investing.com/analysis/another-try-200176876"target = "_blank">Investing.com</a>, <a href = "https://www.ft.com/content/bcd3657a-f84f-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71"target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-negotiations-idUSKBN17014S"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" when the release of the next tranche of loans to Greece is approved, regardless of the amount. Approval to extend the review process or delay the approval decision, without accompanying approval to release additional monies, will not resolve the question as "yes."
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</sub>
<hr>
ESM approved the release of a third tranche to Greece on 7 July 2017 (<a href = "https://www.esm.europa.eu/press-releases/esm-board-directors-approves-%E2%82%AC85-billion-loan-tranche-greece"target="_blank">ESM</a>). This question was closed as "a) Yes" with an end date of 7 July.
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<hr> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-07 | Before 1 September 2017, will the European Stability Mechanism approve the release of a third tranche of funds from the third economic adjustment programme for Greece? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-04-28 | 2017-04-04 | ["https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5642/Will-Turkish-voters-pass-a-constitutional-referendum-in-April-2017#data", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-erdogan-syria-idUSKBN17R2GU", "http://www.politico.eu/article/turkish-opposition-tries-to-annul-referendum-result/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-idUSKBN17H0CU", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-idUSKBN17J0PY", "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/turkey-erdogan-uses-mosques-to-win-referendum.html#ixzz4eLWKiCS2", "http://www.jamesinturkey.com/live-turkey-votes-april-2017/", "http://www.jamesinturkey.com/opinion-polling-ahead-2017-turkish-referendum/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-hahn-idUSKBN17Q27G", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-poll-idUSKBN17F0V3", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/16/erdogan-claims-victory-in-turkish-constitutional-referendum", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-25/turkey-will-keep-pumping-money-into-infrastructure-premier-says", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-politics-minister-idUKKBN17M0Q5", "https://theconversation.com/turkeys-constitutional-referendum-experts-express-fear-for-a-divided-country-76289", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-25/turkey-cabinet-overhaul-said-coming-as-erdogan-eyes-party-return", "https://apnews.com/a07cf9f9f82e43288632ec2d70baf907/Opposition-to-challenge-votes-on-expanding-Erdogan's-powers", "http://www.jamesinturkey.com/explainer-turkeys-new-presidential-system/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-erdogan-europe-idUSKBN17R2GG", "http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/23/what-turkeys-referendum-reveals/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-16/erdogan-declares-victory-as-opposition-contest-turkish-result", "http://en.mehrnews.com/news/124977/Prison-sentence-to-replace-death-penalty-for-drug-dealers", "https://www.24liveblog.com/live/1384525", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-germany-idUSKBN17O0ON?il=0", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkeys-justice-minister-contesting-referendum-moot-46952730", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/world/europe/turkey-referendum-judges.html"] | binary | [["2017-04-04", 1.0], ["2017-04-04", 1.0], ["2017-04-04", 0.875], ["2017-04-04", 0.875], ["2017-04-04", 0.97], ["2017-04-04", 0.94], ["2017-04-04", 0.9], ["2017-04-04", 0.725], ["2017-04-04", 0.665], ["2017-04-04", 0.575], ["2017-04-04", 0.55], ["2017-04-04", 0.6], ["2017-04-05", 0.65], ["2017-04-05", 0.65], ["2017-04-05", 0.64], ["2017-04-05", 0.68], ["2017-04-05", 0.7], ["2017-04-05", 0.69], ["2017-04-05", 0.725], ["2017-04-05", 0.75], ["2017-04-05", 0.75], ["2017-04-05", 0.75], ["2017-04-05", 0.75], ["2017-04-05", 0.785], ["2017-04-05", 0.835], ["2017-04-05", 0.835], ["2017-04-06", 0.835], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.85], ["2017-04-06", 0.835], 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= "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/02/debating-in-whispers-opposition-fearful-ahead-of-turkish-referendum"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3008/#_ftn1"target="_blank">Election Guide</a>, <a href = "https://www.dailysabah.com/eu-affairs/2017/03/10/eu-states-align-with-no-voters-for-constitutional-referendum-in-turkey-via-bans-pm-yildirim-says"target="_blank">Daily Sabah</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">FAQ</a> or <a href=""mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification"" target=""_blank"">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 16 April 2017. Turkey's constitutional referendum passed on 16 April 2017 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-16/erdogan-declares-victory-as-opposition-contest-turkish-result"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>), but the opposition party challenged the results (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/chp-blasts-election-board-referendum-result-170417034950684.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/turkey/16042017"target="_blank">Rudaw</a>). The electoral commission rejected the petitions challenging the results and an appeal of that decision to the State Council of Turkey was refused (<a href = "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-supreme-election-board-announces-official-charter-referendum-results-.aspx?pageID=238&nid=112510&NewsCatID=338"target="_blank">Hurriyet Daily News</a>); official results were released on 27 April 2017, certifying the passage of the referendum (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-referendum-idUSKBN17T2SL"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-04-17 | Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum pass? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-12-18 | 2017-04-07 | ["https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/938739138341359617?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Fblog%2Flive%2F2017%2Fdec%2F07%2Fbrexit-deal-may-varadkar-eu-less-hospitable-for-foreign-talent-after-brexit-says-banking-chief-politics-live%3Fpage%3Dwith%253Ablock-5a2934375483ae06cb81c81", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/europe/theresa-may-brexit-davis-gove.html", "http://human-brain.org/arguments.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/12/david-davis-has-damaged-trust-in-the-uk-for-brexit-talks-says-verhofstadt", "https://www.ft.com/content/4ebcc00e-dbd4-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482", "https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/941025535643344896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December", "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/1_en_act_communication.pdf", "https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637927", "https://t.co/6DhDNqSoaS">https://t.co/6DhDNqSoaS</a>", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/may-s-fragile-truce-tested-as-brexit-pledges-start-to-unravel", "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15-euco-art50-guidelines-en.pdf", "https://t.co/pwBXxviVQk">pic.twitter.com/pwBXxviVQk</a></p>&mdash", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637836", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-divorce-bill-pay-no-trade-deal-philip-hammond-theresa-may-eu-latest-a8095201.html", "https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21732556-despite-big-exit-bill-and-concessions-european-judges-and-irish-border-brexit", "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/meps-unite-to-accuse-davis-of-undermining-good-faith-in-brexit-talks-a3717596.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/uk-and-eu-agree-brexit-divorce-bill-that-could-reach-57bn", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/15/theresa-may-applauded-but-brexit-talks-have-many-hurdles-to-overcome.html", "http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42368096", "http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8039/CBP-8039.pdf", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brexit?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Brexit</a>", "http://fortune.com/2017/12/12/brexit-theresa-may-conservative-rebels-vote/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2017-12-12/eu-warns-u-k-about-reneging-on-brexit-agreements-video", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk"] | binary | [["2017-04-07", 0.625], ["2017-04-07", 0.19], ["2017-04-07", 0.15], ["2017-04-08", 0.11], ["2017-04-08", 0.02], ["2017-04-08", 0.02], ["2017-04-08", 0.035], ["2017-04-09", 0.02], ["2017-04-09", 0.02], ["2017-04-09", 0.02], ["2017-04-09", 0.035], ["2017-04-09", 0.05], ["2017-04-10", 0.09], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-10", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], ["2017-04-11", 0.1], ["2017-04-12", 0.12], ["2017-04-12", 0.12], ["2017-04-12", 0.15], 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["2017-11-28", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.06], ["2017-12-01", 0.06], ["2017-12-01", 0.06], ["2017-12-02", 0.06], ["2017-12-02", 0.07], ["2017-12-03", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.075], ["2017-12-04", 0.075], ["2017-12-04", 0.075], ["2017-12-04", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.07], ["2017-12-04", 0.065], ["2017-12-05", 0.065], ["2017-12-05", 0.06], ["2017-12-05", 0.06], ["2017-12-05", 0.055], ["2017-12-05", 0.06], ["2017-12-06", 0.06], ["2017-12-06", 0.05], ["2017-12-06", 0.05], ["2017-12-06", 0.05], ["2017-12-07", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.05], ["2017-12-08", 0.06], ["2017-12-08", 0.06], ["2017-12-08", 0.07]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/463 | Media reports indicate the EU intends to demand the UK to pay a “hefty” bill to cover various commitments the UK made as a member of the EU (<a href = "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/20/eus-chief-negotiator-michelbarnier-wants-tie-down50bn-brexit/"target="_blank">The Telegraph</a>, <a href = "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-will-not-contribute-to-eu-budget-if-no-brexit-deal-is-reached-says-lords-report-a7609526.html"target="_blank">The Independent</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/eu-politicians-back-brussels-call-for-uk-to-pay-60bn-exit-bill-before-trade-talks"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>) . The question will close when an agreement is reached (e.g., an agreement on a formula to calculate outstanding liabilities (<a href = "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-budget-idUKKBN15N2AL"target="_blank">Reuters</a>), the disbursement of payment is not required for a "yes" resolution.
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<hr>
An agreement on payment of liabilities has been reached (<a href = "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15-euco-art50-guidelines-en.pdf"target="_blank">European Council</a>, <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf"target="_blank">European Council</a>). This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 8 December.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-08 | Before 1 January 2018, will the United Kingdom and the European Union reach an agreement on payment of the UK's outstanding liabilities to the EU? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-08-10 | 2017-04-11 | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/mcconnell-delays-august-recess-to-complete-work-on-health-care-bill-other-issues/2017/07/11/1d90e3d2-6647-11e7-9928-22d00a47778f_story.html", "https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/basics/investment-products/municipal-bonds", "http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Municipal-Bonds-When-Tax-Free-Isn-t-So-Free", "http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-municipal-bonds-20161118-story.html"] | binary | [["2017-04-11", 0.08], ["2017-04-11", 0.04], ["2017-04-11", 0.0], ["2017-04-11", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-12", 0.0], ["2017-04-13", 0.0], ["2017-04-13", 0.0], ["2017-04-13", 0.005], ["2017-04-13", 0.005], ["2017-04-13", 0.0], ["2017-04-14", 0.01], ["2017-04-14", 0.005], ["2017-04-14", 0.01], ["2017-04-14", 0.0], ["2017-04-14", 0.0], ["2017-04-15", 0.0], ["2017-04-15", 0.0], ["2017-04-16", 0.0], ["2017-04-16", 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["2017-07-28", 0.0], ["2017-07-29", 0.0], ["2017-07-29", 0.0], ["2017-07-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-30", 0.0], ["2017-07-31", 0.0], ["2017-07-31", 0.0], ["2017-07-31", 0.0], ["2017-07-31", 0.0], ["2017-08-01", 0.0], ["2017-08-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/467 | Under present federal income tax law, the interest received from municipal bonds is free from federal income taxes (<a href = "http://www.investinginbonds.com/learnmore.asp?catid=8&subcatid=53&id=233"target="_blank">The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association</a>). The Republican-controlled Congress has put tax reform high on the agenda and may try to eliminate or cap the tax exemptions on municipal bonds (<a href = "https://www.bna.com/states-cities-ask-n57982086319/"target="-blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.bna.com/state-deduction-among-n57982086124/"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/321881-mnuchin-promises-tax-reform-by-august"target="_blank">The Hill</a>).
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<hr>
The US president did not sign legislation eliminating or capping the tax exemption on municipal bond interest. This question closed as "b) no".
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-08-01 | Before 1 August 2017, will the US president sign legislation that eliminates or caps the tax exemption on municipal bond interest? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-04-11 | ["https://www.unicef.org/about/execboard/index_48248.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-security/suicide-bombers-kill-10-in-nigerias-maiduguri-emergency-official-idUSKBN1DF2UA?il=0", "http://www.fews.net/global/alert/november-28-2017", "http://executiveboard.wfp.org/wfp-calendar", "http://intelligencebriefs.com/dozens-of-boko-haram-terrorists-killed-scores-injured-by-nigerian-army-in-an-operation-at-the-sambisa-forest/", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201711130036.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/famine-threatening-countries-casts-shadow-global-hunger-progress/story?id=50435363", "http://www.msf.org/en/article/borno-state-nigeria-crisis-update-november-2017", "http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/NIGERIA%20Food%20Security%20Outlook_October%202017-May%202018_0.pdf", "http://www.fews.net/", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/13/poll-reveals-85-percent-americans-oblivious-hunger-crisis-africa-and-middle-east-international-rescue-committee", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2017-10/famine.php", "https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/N1722473.pdf", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/02/world/un-aid-appeal/index.html", "https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-crisis-ets-situation-report-12-reporting-period-11017-311017", "http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7967e.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/464-will-the-un-declare-a-famine-in-any-part-of-nigeria-in-2017/www.guardian.com", "http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/FAO-countries/Nigeria/ToR/Fiche-Cadre_Harmonise_Nigeria-October_2017.pdf", "http://www.fao.org/about/meetings/en/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/northeast-nigeria-recovering-from-islamist-violence-unicef-says", "http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria", 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["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/464 | In February 2017, the UN declared that parts of South Sudan were experiencing a famine (<a href = "http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/471251/icode/"target="_blank">Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN</a>, <a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/un-government-declare-famine-in-parts-of-south-sudan/3731713.html"target="_blank">Voa News</a>, <a href = "http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-detail-forms/ipcinfo-map-detail/en/c/471270/"target="_blank">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification</a>),and other countries in Africa, including Nigeria, are facing the possibility of famine in the near future (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/world/africa/why-20-million-people-are-on-brink-of-famine-in-a-world-of-plenty.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39039255"target="_blank">BBC</a>,<a href = "http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning Systems Network</a>, <a href = "http://www.fews.net/critical-situation-nigeria"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning Systems Network</a>). For general information on how famines are declared, see: <a href = "http://wutc.org/post/who-declares-famine-and-what-does-actually-mean#stream/0"target="_blank">WUTC.org</a>. Both the declaration and the famine need to occur in 2017.
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<hr>
The UN did not declare a famine in any part of Nigeria in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2017.
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<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Nigeria in 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
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"http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/09/stalemate-between-india-pakistan-continues-after-most-recent-round-of-indus-waters-treaty-discussions.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/05979e18-2fe4-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1358049", "https://cvppindia.com/projects.html", "http://irrigation.punjab.gov.in/OldVersion/", "http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/03/indus-water-commission-plans-to-meet-in-pakistan-as-india-resumes-work-on-shuttered-hydropower-project.html", "http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/385149-India-initiates-construction-of-100-megadams-in-b", "http://elibrary.law.psu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1166&context=jlia", "http://www.voanews.com/a/india-hydropower-projects-indus-river-pakistan/3768491.html", "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-us-conspiring-to-sabotage-indus-waters-treaty-pakistans-new-foreign-minister-khawaja-asif/articleshow/59951034.cms", 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| Building dams across the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers -- whose headwaters are controlled by India but whose downstream flow is allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Water Treaty -- could increase tensions between the two countries over water (<a href = "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/30/why-the-india-pakistan-war-over-water-is-so-dangerous-indus-waters-treaty/"target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-pakistan-discuss-indus-waters-treaty-dispute-in-islamabad/story-H7gEYYTsDl4yPQh24NPDFP.html"target="_blank">Hindustan Times</a>, <a href = " http://www.newdelhitimes.com/india-should-sign-a-bakery-fresh-indus-water-treaty-with-pakistan123/"target="_blank">New Delhi Times</a>).
<b>UPDATE:</b> GJ is looking into the specifications of the Ganderbal Project (<a href="http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/08/hindustan-construction-secures-epc-contract-for-india-s-93-mw-new-ganderbal-hydropower-plant.html" target="_blank">Hydroworld</a>, <a href="http://www.hccindia.com/news.php?news_id=96" target="_blank">HCC</a>) to confirm if all requirements of the forecasting question have or have not been met.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
India announced that it will begin new construction that dams part of the of the Chenab rivers. this question closed as “yes” with an end date of 1 October 2017 (<a href = "https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/work-on-jammu-and-kashmir-mega-hydel-project-to-start-in-2-months-official-1757369"target="_blank">NDTV</a>).
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<hr> | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-10-01 | Before 1 April 2018, will India announce that it has begun, or will begin, new construction that dams any part of the of the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers, or their upper tributaries? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-08 | 2017-04-14 | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/565391", "https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/23/15861622/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-landing-success-buglariasat", "http://harvardpolitics.com/covers/the-new-space-race/", "https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=19074", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qBNEgQ_SOTQ", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck/tesla-to-make-pickup-truck-after-model-y-crossover-idUSKBN1EK1A5", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdoNQXQYv8", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/19/spacex-targets-24-hour-first-stage-rocket-re-use-turnaround-by-2018/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPGUQySBikQ", "https://www.cnet.com/news/spacex-elon-musk-falcon-9-iridium-bulgariasat-double-header/", "https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/", "http://clicklancashire.com/2017/04/14/spacex-enters-history-books-with-successful-launch-landing.html", 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["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/468 | On 30 March 2017, SpaceX succesfully launched the first recycled orbital-class booster, marking the first time in the history of spaceflight that a single booster has been used on two separate missions (<a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/30/technology/spacex-launch-ses-10-reused-rocket/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/live-today-spacex-attempts-to-launch-a-flight-proven-rocket/"target="_blank">Ars Technica</a>). Elon Musk has stated that his next goal is to turn the booster around for relaunch in 24 hours, a milestone he said could be accomplished before the end of the year (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-spacex-launch-idUSKBN1711JY"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). A relaunch that occurs within 24 hours of the booster landing, where the second stage of the rocket in the relaunch reaches low Earth orbit, will resolve this question as "Yes", regardless of whether the orbital-class booster lands after the second launch.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
SpaceX did not successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will SpaceX successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing? | gjopen | 0 |
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"http://www.timesofisrael.com/state-prosecutor-hopes-netnyahu-corruption-case-wont-take-too-long/", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-12/former-defence-minister-says-netanyahu-will-be-indicted/8702510", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Israel", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/11/netanyahus-inner-circle-is-fleeing-like-rats-on-the-titanic/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-netanyahu/time-is-netanyahus-ally-in-weathering-israel-legal-storm-idUSKBN1AP1NN", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-netanyahu-idUSKBN1AP1NN?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-corruption-allegations-lawyers-explain-trouble-a7524416.html", "http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.805521", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Coalition-leader-Bitton-says-Netanyahu-will-not-resign-even-if-indicted-499957", 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["2017-10-22", 0.0], ["2017-10-23", 0.0], ["2017-10-23", 0.0], ["2017-10-24", 0.0], ["2017-10-25", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-26", 0.0], ["2017-10-27", 0.0], ["2017-10-28", 0.0], ["2017-10-28", 0.0], ["2017-10-29", 0.0], ["2017-10-29", 0.0], ["2017-10-30", 0.0], ["2017-10-31", 0.0], ["2017-10-31", 0.0], ["2017-10-31", 0.0], ["2017-10-31", 0.0], ["2017-11-01", 0.0], ["2017-11-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/469 | In the past six months, Prime Minister Netanyahu has faced corruption charges (<a href = "http://www.timesofisrael.com/state-prosecutor-expands-legal-team-in-pm-corruption-probes/"target="_blank">The Times of Israel</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-submarine-case.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38491374"target="_blank">BBC</a>) and a political crisis over Israel's public broadcast system (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-19/netanyahu-threatens-elections-over-rift-with-finance-minister"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
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<hr>
Benjamin Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister. This question closed as "b) No," with an end date of 1 November 2017.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-11-01 | Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections before 1 November 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2017-04-18 | ["https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19508439", "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic#Phases", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/08/health/next-flu-pandemic.html", "http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-086173/en/", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22723413", "https://www.healthline.com/health-news/us-could-face-devastating-flu-season#3", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/rohingya-muslims-burma-myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-legitimising-genocide-a7439151.html", "https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-asks-help-fight-h1n1-virus.html", "https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/h7n9-flu-pandemic/543318/", "http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005749", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://fortune.com/2018/01/08/2018-flu-season-what-you-need-to-know/&ved=0ahUKEwih0MKJjcvYAhVjZN8KHS_aANcQqOcBCCAwAQ&usg=AOvVaw2Wi1IaDiBJaJD4EhiiKYo0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-birdflu-china-idUSKBN19X0CL", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/years-flu-season-bad-flu-shot-effective/story%3Fid%3D52209578&ved=2ahUKEwih0MKJjcvYAhVjZN8KHS_aANcQFjAVegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw0jDAxA8dNOiSIV68P23kFO&ampcf=1", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/health/bird-flu-china.html", "http://www.upmc-cbn.org/report_archive/2009/2009-SW-H1N1-Issue-Briefs/2009-06-11-A_Closer_Look_at_WHO_Pandemic_Declaration.html", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/700970", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-h1n1/myanmar-tracks-spread-of-h1n1-as-outbreak-claims-sixth-victim-idUSKBN1AC1XZ", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21313840", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/526845", "http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/phase/en/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/641870", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/07/health/flu-pandemic-sanjay-gupta/index.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic", "http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/"] | binary | [["2017-04-18", 0.125], ["2017-04-18", 0.25], ["2017-04-19", 0.085], ["2017-04-19", 0.075], ["2017-04-19", 0.05], ["2017-04-20", 0.05], ["2017-04-20", 0.07], ["2017-04-20", 0.1], ["2017-04-20", 0.075], ["2017-04-21", 0.2], ["2017-04-22", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.04], ["2017-04-23", 0.05], ["2017-04-23", 0.035], ["2017-04-24", 0.04], ["2017-04-24", 0.04], ["2017-04-24", 0.04], ["2017-04-25", 0.04], ["2017-04-25", 0.05], ["2017-04-25", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.05], ["2017-04-27", 0.045], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-28", 0.05], ["2017-04-29", 0.05], ["2017-04-29", 0.05], ["2017-04-30", 0.05], ["2017-05-01", 0.05], ["2017-05-02", 0.05], ["2017-05-02", 0.05], ["2017-05-03", 0.05], 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["2018-11-12", 0.01], ["2018-11-13", 0.01], ["2018-11-15", 0.01], ["2018-11-16", 0.01], ["2018-11-18", 0.01], ["2018-11-19", 0.01], ["2018-11-20", 0.01], ["2018-11-21", 0.01], ["2018-11-24", 0.01], ["2018-11-26", 0.01], ["2018-11-28", 0.01], ["2018-11-29", 0.01], ["2018-11-30", 0.01], ["2018-12-02", 0.01], ["2018-12-03", 0.01], ["2018-12-05", 0.01], ["2018-12-06", 0.01], ["2018-12-09", 0.01], ["2018-12-13", 0.01], ["2018-12-14", 0.01], ["2018-12-14", 0.01], ["2018-12-16", 0.01], ["2018-12-16", 0.01], ["2018-12-17", 0.01], ["2018-12-17", 0.01], ["2018-12-19", 0.01], ["2018-12-20", 0.01], ["2018-12-20", 0.01], ["2018-12-21", 0.01], ["2018-12-26", 0.01], ["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-30", 0.01], ["2018-12-31", 0.01], ["2019-01-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/471 | There are concerns about a pandemic caused by the spread of avian flu (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/health/bird-flu-china.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Both the CDC (<a href = "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/current-situation.html"target="_blank">CDC</a>, <a href = "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/viruses-concern.html"target="_blank">CDC</a>) and the WHO (<a href = "http://www.who.int/influenza/en/"target="_blank">WHO</a>) actively monitor influenza viruses and manage pandemic declaration.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019.
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| Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-07-10 | 2017-04-18 | ["http://www.38north.org/2017/06/wgraham060217/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40491138", "https://www.yahoo.com/gma/north-korea-claims-tested-first-intercontinental-missile-070907829--abc-news-topstories.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-04/north-korea-claims-successful-intercontinental-missile-launch", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/defying-international-pressure-north-korea-tests-another-missile/2017/07/03/d814d880-fb23-401e-aef1-e78068077a7f_story.html", "http://www.38north.org/2017/04/jschilling042117/", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-blocks-un-statement-calling-n-korea-sanctions-145320489.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN19P02W", "http://www.38north.org/2017/07/jschilling070517/", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-04/where-could-a-north-korean-icbm-hit/8678296", "https://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future", "https://lagunita.stanford.edu/courses/course-v1:Engineering+NuclearBrink+Fall2016/about", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/04/politics/us-officials-meet-north-korea-missile-launch/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo5SBhuPO8I", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhX4__wwTWk", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/04/politics/us-officials-meet-north-korea-missile-launch/index.html", "http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-secret-to-kim%E2%80%99s-success-some-experts-see-russian-echoes-in-north-korea%E2%80%99s-missile-advances/ar-BBE0Gar?ocid=spartandhp", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40491138", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-missile-launch-hands-trump-foreign-policy-crisis-1499182303", "http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-crowded-city-in-the-united-states.html", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-on-north-korea/articleshow/59449775.cms", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-china-xi-northkorea-idUSKBN19P1Q7", "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/04/politics/us-officials-meet-north-korea-missile-launch/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test-icbm.html"] | binary | [["2017-04-18", 0.95], ["2017-04-18", 0.625], ["2017-04-18", 0.75], ["2017-04-18", 1.0], ["2017-04-18", 0.675], ["2017-04-19", 0.7], ["2017-04-19", 0.7], ["2017-04-19", 0.7], ["2017-04-19", 0.605], ["2017-04-20", 0.4], ["2017-04-20", 0.385], ["2017-04-20", 0.52], ["2017-04-21", 0.395], ["2017-04-21", 0.52], ["2017-04-21", 0.52], ["2017-04-22", 0.445], ["2017-04-22", 0.42], ["2017-04-22", 0.44], ["2017-04-22", 0.44], ["2017-04-23", 0.52], ["2017-04-23", 0.49], ["2017-04-23", 0.65], ["2017-04-23", 0.585], ["2017-04-23", 0.595], ["2017-04-23", 0.65], ["2017-04-23", 0.625], 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["2017-07-04", 0.15], ["2017-07-04", 0.16], ["2017-07-04", 0.16], ["2017-07-04", 0.19], ["2017-07-04", 0.2], ["2017-07-04", 0.2]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/470 | North Korea's missile program is a cause of concern for mutiple actors in the region and beyond, particularly regarding the development of ICBM capabilities (<a href = "http://38north.org/2017/01/jschilling011217/"target="_blank">38 North</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17399847"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-missile-test-stirs-icbm-fears-1488802971"target="_blank">WSJ</a>, <a href = "http://www.popsci.com/north-korea-testing-intercontinental-missiles-icbm"target="_blank">Popular Science</a>, <a href = "http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/19/asia/north-korea-missiles/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://38north.org/2017/01/jschilling011217/"target="_blank">38 North</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
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<hr>
On July 4th 2017, NK launched an ICBM (<a href = "http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170705000213"target="_blank">The Korea Herald</a>, <a href = "https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/07/272340.htm"target="_blank">U.S. Department of State</a>, <a href = "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/north-korea-successfully-tests-its-first-icbm"target="_blank">Stratfor</a>). This question was closed as "a) Yes" with an end date of July 4th 2017
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-07-04 | Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-16 | 2017-04-28 | ["https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nuking-the-filibuster-may-hurt-republicans-in-the-long-run/", "http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/332058-senators-on-both-sides-are-friends-of-the-filibuster", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/05/trump-lobbies-on-twitter-to-eliminate-legislative-filibuster.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/14/us/politics/trump-republican-senators.html?emc=edit_th_20170515&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/13/politics/kevin-mccarthy-filibuster-plan/index.html", "https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/2/15515216/republicans-health-bill-rush", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/mitch-mcconnell-promises-not-to-kill-filibuster-236873", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/gops-proposed-tax-changes-are-no-match-for-status-quo-1496055605", "http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/339451-funeral-for-the-filibuster-gop-may-lay-senate-tool-to-rest", "http://ct.fra.bz/il/fz/se/i56/5/4/18/f_92188a1d2c.jpg", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMQkV5cTuoY", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/the-right-to-life-lobby-is-not-in-a-mood-for-compromise.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/06/19/senate-leaders-plan-to-rush-a-health-care-bill-to-a-vote-and-theres-nothing-democrats-can-do-about-it/?utm_term=.482c86052d41", "http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gop-senators-parliamentarian-says-anti-abortion-language-in-healthcare-bill-violates-senate-rules/article/2626669#", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/16/obamacare-cruz-paul-repeal-238411", "http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/steve-bannons-dubious-plan-to-purge-senate-republicans.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/us/politics/trump-tax-code-republicans-votes.html?emc=edit_th_20170913&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2017/10/10/trump-unfiltered/#f2112017a58f", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-30/trump-calls-senate-nuclear-option-avoid-shutdown-claims-dems-would-do-it", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/04/opinion/too-many-donald-trumps.html?emc=edit_th_20170504&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ienp4J3pW7U", "https://www.conservativereview.com/articles/how-fixing-the-filibuster-could-save-countless-unborn-lives", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/593574", "https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-18/sanders-signals-backing-of-senate-slowdown-over-health-care-bill", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/us/politics/filibuster-gorsuch-nomination-republicans.html?_r=1"] | binary | [["2017-04-28", 0.35], ["2017-04-29", 0.54], ["2017-04-29", 0.4], ["2017-04-29", 0.61], ["2017-04-29", 0.63], ["2017-04-30", 0.655], ["2017-04-30", 0.58], ["2017-04-30", 0.65], ["2017-04-30", 0.65], ["2017-04-30", 0.6], ["2017-04-30", 0.5], ["2017-05-01", 0.25], ["2017-05-01", 0.3], ["2017-05-01", 0.3], 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0.1], ["2017-12-08", 0.095], ["2017-12-09", 0.085], ["2017-12-10", 0.075], ["2017-12-10", 0.075], ["2017-12-11", 0.075], ["2017-12-12", 0.07], ["2017-12-13", 0.07], ["2017-12-14", 0.07], ["2017-12-14", 0.07], ["2017-12-16", 0.07], ["2017-12-16", 0.07], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-20", 0.05], ["2017-12-20", 0.05], ["2017-12-21", 0.05], ["2017-12-22", 0.05], ["2017-12-22", 0.05], ["2017-12-23", 0.05], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-25", 0.05], ["2017-12-26", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/476 | In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Justices of the Supreme Court by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The removal of the filibuster to block legislation may be next (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/us/politics/filibuster-gorsuch-nomination-republicans.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
The U.S. Senate did not expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-09-21 | 2017-04-28 | ["https://www.popsugar.co.uk/celebrity/Why-Does-Sansa-Have-Littlefinger-Killed-43943804?utm_medium=redirect&utm_campaign=US:GB&utm_source=www.google.co.uk", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-debtceiling-idUSKBN1A52A5?il=0", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/01/debt-ceiling-talks-between-white-house-senate-break-up-with-no-progress/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_debtceiling-1235pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-hands-too-big-harvey-joke-houston-food-victims-floods-a7926506.html", "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/293817480131002368", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/business/media/bannon-said-to-be-planning-his-return-to-breitbart-news.html?emc=edit_th_20170819&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=77825025", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-ceiling-idUSKCN1B42FS", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdown_in_the_United_States", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-idUSKCN1B41RT", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/18/news/economy/debt-ceiling-perils/index.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K34m6AaFTg8", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U46di6mKO4s", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/21/mcconnell-says-zero-chance-congress-will-fail-to-raise-debt-ceiling/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-politics%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.b1786dc6062e", "https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ba/fe/d5/bafed5eb59af440e7baca81f65bd59b9--minion-gif-cute-minions.jpg", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-ryan-idUSKCN1B424F", "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-debt-ceiling-costs-and-consequences", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/01/debt-ceiling-talks-between-white-house-senate-break-up-with-no-progress/", 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["2017-07-01", 0.98], ["2017-07-01", 0.98], ["2017-07-02", 0.98], ["2017-07-03", 0.98], ["2017-07-03", 0.98], ["2017-07-03", 0.98], ["2017-07-03", 0.98], ["2017-07-04", 0.98], ["2017-07-04", 0.98], ["2017-07-05", 0.98], ["2017-07-05", 0.98], ["2017-07-05", 0.98], ["2017-07-06", 0.98], ["2017-07-06", 0.98], ["2017-07-07", 0.98], ["2017-07-08", 0.98], ["2017-07-09", 0.98], ["2017-07-09", 0.98], ["2017-07-10", 0.98], ["2017-07-10", 0.98], ["2017-07-11", 0.98], ["2017-07-11", 0.98], ["2017-07-12", 0.98], ["2017-07-12", 0.98], ["2017-07-12", 0.98], ["2017-07-12", 0.98], ["2017-07-13", 0.98], ["2017-07-13", 0.98], ["2017-07-14", 0.98], ["2017-07-14", 0.98], ["2017-07-14", 0.98], ["2017-07-14", 0.98], ["2017-07-15", 0.98], ["2017-07-16", 0.98], ["2017-07-17", 0.985], ["2017-07-17", 0.985], ["2017-07-17", 0.985], ["2017-07-18", 0.985], ["2017-07-18", 0.98], ["2017-07-19", 0.98], ["2017-07-19", 0.98], ["2017-07-19", 0.99], ["2017-07-20", 0.99], ["2017-07-20", 0.99], ["2017-07-21", 0.99], 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["2017-08-13", 0.99], ["2017-08-13", 0.99], ["2017-08-13", 0.99], ["2017-08-14", 0.99], ["2017-08-14", 0.99], ["2017-08-14", 0.99], ["2017-08-15", 0.99], ["2017-08-16", 0.99], ["2017-08-16", 0.99], ["2017-08-17", 0.99], ["2017-08-17", 0.99], ["2017-08-18", 0.99], ["2017-08-18", 0.99], ["2017-08-19", 0.99], ["2017-08-20", 0.99], ["2017-08-21", 0.99], ["2017-08-21", 0.99], ["2017-08-21", 0.99], ["2017-08-21", 0.99], ["2017-08-22", 0.99], ["2017-08-22", 0.99], ["2017-08-22", 0.99], ["2017-08-23", 0.99], ["2017-08-23", 0.99], ["2017-08-23", 0.99], ["2017-08-24", 0.99], ["2017-08-24", 0.99], ["2017-08-24", 0.99], ["2017-08-24", 0.99], ["2017-08-24", 0.99], ["2017-08-25", 0.99], ["2017-08-25", 0.99], ["2017-08-25", 0.99], ["2017-08-25", 0.99], ["2017-08-26", 0.99], ["2017-08-27", 0.99], ["2017-08-27", 0.99], ["2017-08-27", 0.99], ["2017-08-28", 0.99], ["2017-08-28", 0.99], ["2017-08-28", 0.99], ["2017-08-29", 0.99], ["2017-08-29", 0.99], ["2017-08-29", 0.99], ["2017-08-30", 0.99], ["2017-08-30", 0.99], ["2017-08-31", 0.99], ["2017-09-01", 0.99], ["2017-09-01", 0.99], ["2017-09-02", 0.99], ["2017-09-02", 0.99], ["2017-09-03", 0.99], ["2017-09-03", 0.99], ["2017-09-03", 0.99], ["2017-09-03", 0.99], ["2017-09-04", 0.99], ["2017-09-04", 0.99], ["2017-09-04", 0.99], ["2017-09-05", 0.99], ["2017-09-06", 0.99], ["2017-09-06", 0.99], ["2017-09-06", 0.99], ["2017-09-07", 0.99], ["2017-09-07", 0.99], ["2017-09-07", 0.99], ["2017-09-07", 0.99], ["2017-09-07", 0.99], ["2017-09-08", 0.99], ["2017-09-08", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/473 | <b><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/us/politics/hurricane-aid-debt-ceiling.html?mcubz=0" target="_blank">The U.S. debt ceiling has been raised.</a> This question closed as "Yes", with an end date of 8 September 2017.</b>
On 15 March 2017, the U.S. government's suspension of the debt limit expired (<a href = "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/16/borrowing-authority-expires-treasury-stops-issuing-debt/99266342/"target="_blank">USA Today</a>). Since then, the U.S. Treasury has undertaken "extraordinary measures" to prevent default (<a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/27/there-is-no-debt-ceiling-crisis-at-least-for-now.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The Congressional Budget Office estimates that these measures will enable the Treasury to service U.S. debt into the fall (<a href = "https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52465-federaldebtlimit.pdf"target="_blank">CBO</a>).
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-09-08 | Will the U.S. federal debt ceiling be raised or suspended before 1 December 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-05-11 | 2017-05-02 | ["http://www.barrons.com/articles/south-korea-election-odds-of-moon-victory-raised-to-80-1493687566", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chancellors_of_Germany", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_presidential_election,_2017", "http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-presidential-front-runner-widens-lead", "https://www.predictit.org/Market/3064/Who-will-win-the-South-Korean-presidential-election", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39848999", "http://beyondparallel.csis.org/polls-quiet-predata-signals-take-the-pulse-of-the-south-korean-electorate/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-election-moon-foreignpolic-idUSKBN1810PV", "https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=de&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newstown.co.kr%2Fnews%2FarticleView.html%3Fidxno%3D284947&sandbox=1", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_presidential_election,_2017#2017_May", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2017", "https://www.predictit.org/Market/2461/Who-will-be-elected-German-chancellor-in-2017"] | binary | [["2017-05-02", 0.95], ["2017-05-02", 1.0], ["2017-05-02", 0.99], ["2017-05-02", 0.985], ["2017-05-02", 0.965], ["2017-05-02", 0.96], ["2017-05-02", 0.96], ["2017-05-02", 0.97], ["2017-05-02", 0.975], ["2017-05-02", 0.975], ["2017-05-02", 0.975], ["2017-05-02", 0.97], ["2017-05-03", 0.98], ["2017-05-03", 0.985], ["2017-05-03", 0.985], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.99], ["2017-05-03", 0.995], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-03", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-04", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 1.0], ["2017-05-05", 0.99], ["2017-05-05", 0.99], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 1.0], ["2017-05-06", 0.99], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.995], ["2017-05-06", 0.99], ["2017-05-07", 0.99], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.975], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-07", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.975], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.99], ["2017-05-08", 0.98], ["2017-05-08", 0.985], ["2017-05-08", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.99], ["2017-05-09", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.985], ["2017-05-09", 0.98], ["2017-05-09", 0.98], ["2017-05-09", 0.98]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/479 | South Koreans will go to the polls on 9 May 2017 to elect their new president (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/world/asia/south-korea-election-park-geun-hye.html?_r=0"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Moon Jae-in ran for president in 2012, losing narrowly to Park Geun-hye. He is now the presumed front runner (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/10/world/asia/south-korea-liberals-impeachment.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-china-idUSKBN16L0J7"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
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<hr>
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 9 May 2017 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/world/asia/south-korea-election-president-moon-jae-in.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>).
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-05-09 | Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election? | gjopen | 1 |
2017-11-21 | 2017-05-09 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-bonds-isda/isda-to-reconvene-to-discuss-venezuelas-pdvsa-bond-on-tuesday-idUSL1N1NJ18W", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aJ69YgvpDo", "https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/rating", "http://www.theborneopost.com/2017/11/16/venezuela-selective-default-declared-govt-insists-it-is-paying-up/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/11/15/venezuela-did-not-default-but-risks-remain/#4f97800c4919", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-bonds/venezuela-offers-chocolates-but-little-else-to-creditors-idUSKBN1DD0IG?il=0", "https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2017-11-11/venezuela-debt-meeting-set-for-monday-afternoon", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-12/how-forecast-markets-departing-top-jpmorgan-strategist-reveals-what-he-learned-after", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41982069", "https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/930184137478164482", 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["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-09", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.55], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-10", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-11", 0.65], ["2017-11-12", 0.65], ["2017-11-12", 0.65], ["2017-11-13", 0.65], ["2017-11-13", 0.6], ["2017-11-13", 0.6], ["2017-11-14", 0.55], ["2017-11-14", 0.6], ["2017-11-14", 0.65], ["2017-11-14", 0.65], ["2017-11-14", 0.65], ["2017-11-14", 0.655], ["2017-11-14", 0.7], ["2017-11-14", 0.75], ["2017-11-14", 0.75]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/482 | The three major credit rating agencies are Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. A rating of C by Moody's indicates default (see page 5 of <a href = "https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=pbc_79004"target="_blank">Moody's</a>); a rating of RD or D by Fitch indicates default (see page 19 of <a href = "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/dam/jcr:6b03c4cd-611d-47ec-b8f1-183c01b51b08/Rating%20Definitions.pdf"target="_blank">Fitch Ratings</a>), and a rating of SD or D by S&P indicates default (See table 4: <a href = "https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/article/-/view/sourceId/504352"target="_blank">Standard and Poors</a>). Venezuela and its state-run oil company, the PDVSA ,made a large debt payment in April, but have others coming due in October and November of 2017 (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-bonds-idUSL1N1HK0YF"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Venezuela’s shrinking federal reserves, budget deficit, high unemployment rate, falling oil prices, and food shortages put it at risk of defaulting on these loans in 2017 (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/venezuelan-credit-dashboard-can-default-be-avoided-in-2017"target="_blank">Bloomber</a>, <a href = "http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2017/02/28/venezuela-pdvsa-default-risk-real-outlook-negative-sp-says/"target="_blank">Barrons</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
PDVSA has been downgraded by <a href = "https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1032258"target="_blank">Fitch</a> and <a href = "https://www.standardandpoors.com//en_US/web/guest/ratings/press-releases"target="_blank">S&P</a>. This question closed as “a) Yes,” with and end date of 14 November.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-11-14 | Before 1 January 2018, will two of the three major credit rating agencies adjust the long-term issuer credit rating of Venezuela or the PDVSA to indicate default? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-16 | 2017-05-09 | ["https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=TWTR:NYQ", "https://www.google.com/search?q=twitter+acquisition&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:w&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjfzKum1YvWAhVozIMKHZ_jAbYQpwUIIA&biw=1920&bih=912", "https://www.twitteraudit.com/realdonaldtrump", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-26/disney-said-to-be-working-with-adviser-on-potential-twitter-bid", "http://m.benzinga.com/article/9394564?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F", "https://www.thestreet.com/story/14107638/2/will-twitter-s-surprising-first-quarter-results-make-it-a-takeover-target-again.html", "https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/peter-thiel-mocks-pot-smoking-twitter-management/", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/07/27/twitter-revenue-drops-user-growth-stalls/", "https://www.libraryforsmartinvestors.com/2017/05/worst-twitter-inc-nysetwtr-acquisition-offer-way/41370877.htm", "https://www.twitteraudit.com/hillaryclinton", "https://www.smarteranalyst.com/2016/10/05/alphabet-inc-googl-best-fit-acquire-twitter-twtr-top-analyst/", "https://www.recode.net/2016/9/14/12876560/twitter-acquisition-options-google-facebook-apple", "https://www.twitteraudit.com/cnn", "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/twtr?ltr=1", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-results-idUSKBN1AC1NJ?il=0", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-socialmedia-eu-consumersconsumers-idUSKBN16N2YI", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/twitter-earnings-q2-2017.html", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/20/dont-buy-the-twitter-comeback-stock-to-drop-50-percent-morgan-stanley-predicts.html", "https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2017/05/12/jack-dorsey-acquires-574002-shares-of-twitter-inc-twtr-stock-updated.html", "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-23/ex-cia-agent-raising-cash-buy-twitter-and-delete-trumps-account", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-stocks-idUSKBN1AB0E9"] | binary | [["2017-05-09", 0.56], ["2017-05-09", 0.65], ["2017-05-10", 0.6], 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["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.02], ["2017-12-21", 0.02], ["2017-12-22", 0.02], ["2017-12-23", 0.02], ["2017-12-23", 0.02], ["2017-12-24", 0.02], ["2017-12-25", 0.02], ["2017-12-26", 0.015], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01], ["2018-01-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/480 | Twitter has been the target of acquisition rumors with possible suitors including Google and Salesforce (<a href = "https://www.recode.net/2016/9/14/12876560/twitter-acquisition-options-google-facebook-apple"target="_blank">Redcode</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/01/twitter-acquisition-early-investor-chris-sacca-shark-tank.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>).
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Twitter Inc. did not announce it is being acquired. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will it be announced that Twitter Inc. is being acquired? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-16 | 2017-05-09 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-southsudan-arms-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-to-impose-arms-embargo-on-south-sudan-to-end-conflict-sources-idUSKBN1FM0ZE", "https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/04/people-burned-to-death-in-homes-by-south-sudan-government-militias-amnesty-report", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/u-s-vows-tough-sanctions-if-south-sudan-doesn-t-end-conflict", "http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/12/14/un-security-council-warns-on-south-sudan-peace-efforts.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-security-un/u-n-council-fails-to-impose-arms-embargo-on-south-sudan-idUSKBN14C1KY", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-security-un-idUSKBN18K2RH", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/world/africa/us-arms-ban-on-south-sudan-.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-diplomacy/south-sudan-ceasefire-body-says-leaders-breaking-peace-deal-could-face-sanctions-idUSKBN1FE1IG?il=0", "https://www.voanews.com/a/un-security-council-rejects-arms-embargo-south-sudan/3648327.html", "http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_political_stability/", "https://www.alleastafrica.com/2017/10/30/un-security-council-worried-s-sudan-amid-formations-53-new-rebel-groups/", "https://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2017/12/14/un-security-council-warns-on-south-sudan-peace-efforts-n2422798", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/south-sudan/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/south-sudan-officials-guilty-war-crimes-report-180223152525125.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-protests/hundreds-protest-against-u-s-arms-embargo-in-south-sudan-journalists-attacked-idUSKBN1FQ22E", "https://www.ft.com/content/dc855d9a-501c-11e7-bfb8-997009366969", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/667210", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/unsc_elections_2017.pdf", "https://www.upi.com/Archives/1933/02/24/Japan-stuns-world-withdraws-from-league/2231840119817/", "https://www.tweedekamer.nl/kamerstukken/verslagen", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article62541", "https://news.vice.com/story/inside-the-front-lines-of-south-sudans-unwinnable-war", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-african-union-summit-southsudan/african-union-joins-growing-chorus-demanding-sanctions-on-south-sudan-war-idUSKBN1FI2IO?il=0", "https://africanspress.org/2017/08/31/40-tons-of-south-sudan-weapons-land-at-entebbe/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index"] | binary | [["2017-05-09", 0.5], ["2017-05-09", 0.7], ["2017-05-09", 0.65], ["2017-05-10", 0.6], ["2017-05-10", 0.575], ["2017-05-10", 0.45], ["2017-05-10", 0.45], ["2017-05-10", 0.55], ["2017-05-11", 0.625], ["2017-05-11", 0.5], ["2017-05-11", 0.5], ["2017-05-12", 0.455], ["2017-05-12", 0.405], ["2017-05-12", 0.4], ["2017-05-12", 0.4], ["2017-05-12", 0.405], ["2017-05-12", 0.45], 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count. With warnings of ethnic cleansing and war-induced famine, the US and others have been pushing for an arms embargo (<a href = "https://www.ecr.co.za/news/news/south-sudan-buys-weapons-during-famine-un-report/"target="_blank">ECR</a>, <a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/outrage-blocks-south-sudan-arms-embargo-161223153844996.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/world/africa/south-sudan-genocide-arms-embargo-united-nations.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Examples of mandatory arms embargoes imposed by the UNSC include the Central African Republic in 2013 (<a href = "https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/Central-African-Republic/un-arms-embargo-on-the-central-african-republic"target="_blank">Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)</a>), Yemen in 2015 (<a href = "https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/yemen/yemen"target="_blank">SIPRI</a>), and Libya in 2011 (<a href = "https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/libya/libya_2011"target="_blank">SIPRI</a>).
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The <a href = "https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/07/1014622"target="_blank">UN imposed an arms embargo on South Sudan</a>. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 13 July 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-13 | Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-11 | 2017-05-09 | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/07/12/the-finance-202-tax-overhaul-at-mercy-of-budget-negotiators/59652d94e9b69b7071abcb11/", "https://www.majorityleader.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2017_ANNUAL_CALENDAR.pdf", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-idUSKCN1BA14X", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/14/trump-tax-reform-big-six-242719", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-18/no-3-gop-senator-joins-those-opening-door-to-tax-revamp-in-2018", "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/resources/pdf/2017_calendar.pdf", "http://www.msnbc.com/", "https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/whats-in-the-new-tax-bill/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/07/06/the-finance-202-how-committed-is-the-gop-to-tax-cuts-for-the-rich-we-re-about-to-find-out/595d2570e9b69b7071abca80/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-gop-unveils-budget-plan-that-attaches-major-spending-cuts-to-coming-tax-reform-bill/2017/07/18/6e68b679-c63a-4dd1-a3da-e191636946ad_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_gopbudget-606am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-gop-hits-resistance-on-estate-tax-repealfrom-republicans-1507220889?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/6252/Will-the-estate-tax-be-repealed-in-2017#data", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/republican-tax-plan-deal/index.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/senate-poised-for-crucial-vote-related-to-tax-reform-measure-idUSKBN1CO0ET", "https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2017/06/22/hitting-right-rhetoric-president-tax-2", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/19/white-house-seriously-considers-abandoning-some-tax-cuts-for-the-wealthy/?utm_term=.459cf54c5e10", "https://www.axios.com/tax-reform-shocker-the-white-house-actually-has-a-plan-2460447660.html", "http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/14/house-republicans-spending-bill-240565", "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/11/thanks-congress-wealthy-investors-hold-off-on-estate-tax-planning.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-salt/discord-among-republicans-already-weighs-on-trumps-tax-plan-idUSKBN1CB13X", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-budget-idUSKBN1A30RD", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/us/politics/senate-republicans-will-diverge-from-house-in-sweeping-tax-rewrite.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/481-before-1-january-2018-will-president-trump-sign-legislation-that-repeals-the-federal-estate-tax/www.msnbc.com", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2017/09/05/the-finance-202-tax-overhaul-faces-big-hurdles-as-congress-returns/59addb3630fb04264c2a1c99/", 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["2017-08-17", 0.1], ["2017-08-17", 0.07], ["2017-08-19", 0.07], ["2017-08-20", 0.07], ["2017-08-21", 0.07], ["2017-08-21", 0.07], ["2017-08-22", 0.06], ["2017-08-22", 0.06], ["2017-08-23", 0.055], ["2017-08-24", 0.055], ["2017-08-24", 0.05], ["2017-08-25", 0.05], ["2017-08-26", 0.05], ["2017-08-27", 0.05], ["2017-08-28", 0.05], ["2017-08-28", 0.05], ["2017-08-29", 0.05], ["2017-08-29", 0.05], ["2017-08-30", 0.05], ["2017-08-31", 0.05], ["2017-08-31", 0.05], ["2017-09-01", 0.05], ["2017-09-02", 0.05], ["2017-09-03", 0.05], ["2017-09-04", 0.05], ["2017-09-04", 0.05], ["2017-09-05", 0.05], ["2017-09-05", 0.05], ["2017-09-06", 0.05], ["2017-09-06", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-07", 0.05], ["2017-09-08", 0.05], ["2017-09-08", 0.05], ["2017-09-08", 0.05], ["2017-09-09", 0.05], ["2017-09-10", 0.05], ["2017-09-10", 0.05], ["2017-09-12", 0.05], ["2017-09-12", 0.05], ["2017-09-13", 0.05], ["2017-09-14", 0.05], ["2017-09-14", 0.05], ["2017-09-14", 0.05], 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["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-28", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-29", 0.05], ["2017-09-30", 0.05], ["2017-10-01", 0.05], ["2017-10-02", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-03", 0.05], ["2017-10-04", 0.05], ["2017-10-06", 0.05], ["2017-10-06", 0.05], ["2017-10-07", 0.05], ["2017-10-07", 0.05], ["2017-10-07", 0.05], ["2017-10-08", 0.05], ["2017-10-08", 0.05], ["2017-10-08", 0.05], ["2017-10-09", 0.05], ["2017-10-10", 0.05], ["2017-10-10", 0.05], ["2017-10-11", 0.05], ["2017-10-11", 0.05], ["2017-10-11", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.055], ["2017-10-12", 0.06], ["2017-10-13", 0.06], ["2017-10-14", 0.06], ["2017-10-14", 0.06], ["2017-10-15", 0.06], ["2017-10-16", 0.06], ["2017-10-16", 0.06], ["2017-10-18", 0.065], ["2017-10-18", 0.065], ["2017-10-18", 0.065], ["2017-10-19", 0.065], ["2017-10-20", 0.065], ["2017-10-20", 0.07], ["2017-10-20", 0.07], ["2017-10-20", 0.07], ["2017-10-21", 0.07], ["2017-10-22", 0.075], 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0.03], ["2017-11-13", 0.03], ["2017-11-13", 0.02], ["2017-11-14", 0.02], ["2017-11-14", 0.02], ["2017-11-15", 0.02], ["2017-11-16", 0.02], ["2017-11-17", 0.02], ["2017-11-17", 0.02], ["2017-11-19", 0.02], ["2017-11-20", 0.02], ["2017-11-20", 0.02], ["2017-11-21", 0.02], ["2017-11-22", 0.02], ["2017-11-23", 0.02], ["2017-11-24", 0.02], ["2017-11-24", 0.02], ["2017-11-26", 0.02], ["2017-11-27", 0.02], ["2017-11-27", 0.02], ["2017-11-28", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-12-01", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-03", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-06", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-10", 0.02], ["2017-12-11", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-12", 0.02], ["2017-12-13", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-14", 0.02], ["2017-12-15", 0.02], ["2017-12-15", 0.02], ["2017-12-16", 0.015], ["2017-12-16", 0.01], ["2017-12-17", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-21", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/481 | The White House’s call for an overhaul of the tax code includes a repeal of the federal estate tax (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-to-unveil-proposal-for-massive-tax-cut/2017/04/26/2097fe42-2a94-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>). Temporary repeals will count (e.g. <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2001-06-12/the-accountants-employment-act"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
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President Trump did not sign legislation that repeals the federal estate tax. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that repeals the federal estate tax? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-12 | 2017-05-12 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/04/canada-cabinet-gender-diversity-justin-trudeau", "http://people.com/movies/lina-esco-swat-harvey-weinstein-sexual-harassment/", "https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/its-metoo-time-for-the-equal-rights-amendment-in_us_59fa6359e4b09887ad6f3d4a", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/illinois-gop-governor-urges-unity-ahead-divisive-election-52751711", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment#State_Equal_Rights_Amendments", "http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/BillStatus.asp?DocTypeID=SJRCA&DocNum=4&GAID=14&SessionID=91&LegID=99262", "https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/20a2e4_9d9899b28807471d994a1edacbb04501.pdf", "http://www.peoplesworld.org/article/virginia-general-assembly-starts-2018-session-with-push-for-progressive-laws/", "http://www.gvnews.com/opinion/era-efforts/article_3ef441a0-a31d-11e7-9018-2f7d04fa1083.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gop-house-leaders-in-va-refuse-hearing-on-federal-equal-rights-amendment/2018/02/08/b3c07b02-0ce0-11e8-8b0d-891602206fb7_story.html?utm_term=.0d53d874166f", "http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/search-for-merkel-successor-leads-to-kramp-karrenbauer-a-1190391.html", "http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/arizona-republicans-refused-to-discuss-the-equal-rights-amendment-9287937", "http://www.richmond.com/news/local/central-virginia/powhatan/powhatan-today/opinion/equal-rights-amendment-is-long-overdue/article_2a4587b4-02db-11e8-a668-af447bb4f47b.html", "http://www.richmond.com/news/local/central-virginia/powhatan/powhatan-today/local-powhatan-girls-involved-in-equal-rights-amendment/article_07ef203e-fb9d-11e7-a0b9-ff975530f870.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_General_Assembly", "https://wtop.com/virginia/2018/02/va-lawmakers-strike-down-federal-equal-rights-amendment-bills/", "https://www.journal-topics.com/articles/moylan-to-back-era-ratification/", "http://wtvr.com/2018/01/15/womens-rights-groups-urge-virginia-to-ratify-era/", "http://www.dailypress.com/news/politics/dp-nws-ga-era-shenanigans-20150203-story.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_General_Assembly", "http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/illinois-at-center-of-revived-equal-rights-amendment-fight/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Equal_Rights_Amendments", "http://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/local/florida-state-lawmakers-reintroduce-bill-to-ratify-equal-rights-amendment/77-506676912", "http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/billstatus.asp?DocNum=4&GAID=14&GA=100&DocTypeID=SJRCA&LegID=99262&SessionID=91", "https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/17/europe/france-macron-cabinet-women/index.html"] | binary | [["2017-05-12", 1.0], ["2017-05-12", 0.7], ["2017-05-12", 0.5], ["2017-05-12", 0.45], ["2017-05-13", 0.325], ["2017-05-13", 0.2], ["2017-05-13", 0.15], ["2017-05-14", 0.15], ["2017-05-14", 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["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-05", 0.05], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.05], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-05-01", 0.05], ["2018-05-02", 0.05], ["2018-05-04", 0.04], ["2018-05-05", 0.04], ["2018-05-07", 0.04], ["2018-05-09", 0.035], ["2018-05-12", 0.03], ["2018-05-12", 0.03], ["2018-05-15", 0.03], ["2018-05-17", 0.03], ["2018-05-19", 0.03], ["2018-05-21", 0.03], ["2018-05-23", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-28", 0.03], ["2018-05-31", 0.03], ["2018-06-01", 0.03], ["2018-06-01", 0.03], ["2018-06-02", 0.03], ["2018-06-04", 0.03], ["2018-06-05", 0.03], ["2018-06-06", 0.03], ["2018-06-08", 0.03], ["2018-06-09", 0.03], ["2018-06-11", 0.03], ["2018-06-13", 0.03], ["2018-06-14", 0.03], ["2018-06-15", 0.03], ["2018-06-15", 0.03], ["2018-06-17", 0.03], ["2018-06-19", 0.02], ["2018-06-20", 0.02], ["2018-06-21", 0.02], ["2018-06-23", 0.02], ["2018-06-24", 0.02], ["2018-06-25", 0.02], ["2018-06-26", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/484 | The Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) passed Congress in 1972 but fell three states short of the required 38 state legislature ratifications. On 22 March 2017, Nevada ratified the ERA, reinvigorating activists who are seeking to secure ratification by two additional legislatures (<a href = "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/21/520962541/nevada-on-cusp-of-ratifying-equal-rights-amendment-35-years-after-deadline""target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href = "http://www.dailypress.com/news/politics/dp-nws-ga-era-shenanigans-20150203-story.html"target="_blank">The Daily Express</a>, <a href = "http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/illinois-at-center-of-revived-equal-rights-amendment-fight/"target="_blank">Chicago Sun Times</a>). States which have not ratified the ERA include AL, AZ, AR, FL, GA, IL, LA, MS, MO, NC, OK, SC, UT, and VA.
<i>Clarification:</i> The closing date has been updated to 30 June 2018 to match the end date referenced in the question.
<hr>
Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018 only <a href = "http://www.sj-r.com/news/20180530/illinois-becomes-37th-state-to-ratify-equal-rights-amendment"target="_blank">Illinois ratified the Equal Rights Amendment</a>. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-30 | Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018, will two or more states ratify the Equal Rights Amendment? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-05-16 | ["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/485-will-a-loya-jirga-convene-in-afghanistan-before-2018/www.menafn.com/1096145878/Afghanistan--Only-traditional-Loya-Jirga-can-end-current-crisis-Rana-Think-Tank+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/hekmatyars-return-to-kabul-background-reading-by-aan/", "http://www.menafn.com/1096145878/Afghanistan--Only-traditional-Loya-Jirga-can-end-current-crisis-Rana-Think-Tank+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40170596", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/working-in-a-grey-zone-icrc-forced-to-scale-back-its-work-in-afghanistan/", "http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/bill-roggio-taliban-overruns-2-districts-in-southern-afghanistan/", "http://afghanistantimes.af/religious-scholars-demand-loya-jirga-call-to-solve-crisis/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/world/middleeast/mattis-iran-deal-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&amp", "http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2017/02/09/loya-jirga-be-convened-amend-constitution-ceo", "https://www.pajhwok.com/en/2017/08/24/loya-jirga-next-year-after-elections-ceo-office", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1194446/world", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-looks-at-scaling-back-u-s-military-presence-in-afghanistan-1501426803", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/resettling-nearly-half-a-million-afghans-in-nangrahar-the-consequences-of-the-mass-return-of-refugees/", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistan-election-conundrum-2-a-tight-date-and-a-debate-about-technology/", "https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Mattis_06-13-17.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/political-storm-brews-in-afghanistan-as-officials-from-ethnic-minorities-break-with-president-call-for-reforms-and-protests/2017/07/01/ab9419ea-5e6f-11e7-aa69-3964a7d55207_story.html", "http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/sacked-afghan-minister-symbolizes-the-governments-precarious-position/", "http://www.tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/govt-fires-two-supporting-move-hold-traditional-loya-jirga", "http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2017/05/31/mps-lose-patience-govt-over-cabinet-picks", "http://www.tolonews.com/node/49416", "http://www.khaama.com/karzai-to-ask-govt-leaders-for-loya-jirga-regarding-new-us-strategy-03597", "http://afghanistantimes.af/running-parliamentary-district-council-elections-impossible-this-year/", "http://aan.af/2hKNy62", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/mehwar-e-mardom-e-afghanistan-new-opposition-group-with-an-ambiguous-link-to-karzai/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-security-idUSKBN18U05U"] | binary 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["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/485 | The September 2014 agreement that produced Afghanistan's current national unity government called for the convocation of a loya jirga (<a href = "http://www.rferl.org/content/afghanistan-loya-jirga-explainer/25174483.html"target="_blank">RFERL</a>), but the loya jirga has not yet convenved and the stability of Afghanistan's government remains tenuous (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-31/afghan-leaders-political-rift-risks-deepening-instability"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "http://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/justice-minister-says-elections-first-then-constitutional-loya-j"target="_blank">Tolo News</a>, <a href = "http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/taliban-in-afghanistan"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>).
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<hr>
A loya jirga did not convene in Afghanistan. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will a loya jirga convene in Afghanistan before 2018? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2017-09-24", 0.0], ["2017-09-24", 0.0], ["2017-09-24", 0.0], ["2017-09-24", 0.0], ["2017-09-24", 0.0], ["2017-09-25", 0.0], ["2017-09-25", 0.0], ["2017-09-25", 0.0], ["2017-09-25", 0.0], ["2017-09-25", 0.0], ["2017-09-26", 0.0], ["2017-09-26", 0.0], ["2017-09-26", 0.0], ["2017-09-27", 0.0], ["2017-09-27", 0.0], ["2017-09-27", 0.0], ["2017-09-28", 0.0], ["2017-09-28", 0.0], ["2017-09-28", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.0], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-09-30", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/487 | A crucial hypothesis in physics, supersymmetry posits that each of the known fundamental particles has a partner particle, known as a "sparticle." The Large Hadron Collider at CERN, Europe's particle physics laboratory, has yet to discover evidence of sparticles (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12781/so-long-susy?fsrc=scn/tw/wi/bl/ed/"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21709946-supersymmetry-beautiful-idea-there-still-no-evidence-support-it"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
There were no announcements of the Large Hadron Collider finding evidence of "sparticles." This question closed as "No," with an end date of 1 October 2017.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr> | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-10-01 | Before 1 October 2017, will it be announced that the Large Hadron Collider has found evidence of "sparticles?" | gjopen | 0 |
2018-04-03 | 2017-05-16 | ["https://sofrep.com/author/sam-faddis/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/06/06/seal-team-6-the-cia-and-the-secret-history-of-u-s-kill-missions/?utm_term=.56b369b33410", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/afghanistan-quagmire-leaves-u-s-no-good-options", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/486-will-the-taliban-take-lashkar-gah-before-1-april-2018/www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA396780", "http://www.tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan/us-program-revive-afghan-economy-fails-sigar", "https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/cia-and-the-vietnam-policymakers-three-epis", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/04/world/middleeast/isis-syria-al-qaeda.html", "https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-taliban-marine-general/29014132.html", "https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2018-ATA", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-building", "https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2018-01-30qr.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/18/world/asia/afghan-militia-leaders-empowered-by-us-to-fight-taliban-inspire-fear-in-villages.html", "https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/congressional-testimonies/item/1845-statement-for-the-record-worldwide-threat-assessment-of-the-us-intelligence-community", "http://isc.independent.gov.uk/news-archive/20december2017", "https://investigaterussia.org/media/2018-02-07/russians-hacked-voter-rolls", "https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/us-demands-pakistan-arrest-top-haqqani-taliban-leaders", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/world/asia/pakistan-taliban-commander.html", "https://mwi.usma.edu/war-books-special-edition-centcom-commanders-2018-reading-list/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/taliban-suicide-bomber-kills-pakistani-soldiers-swat-180203174505673.html", 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["2018-03-03", 0.0], ["2018-03-05", 0.0], ["2018-03-05", 0.0], ["2018-03-06", 0.0], ["2018-03-07", 0.0], ["2018-03-08", 0.01], ["2018-03-09", 0.0], ["2018-03-09", 0.0], ["2018-03-10", 0.0], ["2018-03-11", 0.0], ["2018-03-12", 0.0], ["2018-03-13", 0.0], ["2018-03-13", 0.01], ["2018-03-14", 0.005], ["2018-03-15", 0.005], ["2018-03-16", 0.0], ["2018-03-17", 0.0], ["2018-03-18", 0.0], ["2018-03-18", 0.0], ["2018-03-19", 0.0], ["2018-03-20", 0.0], ["2018-03-22", 0.0], ["2018-03-23", 0.0], ["2018-03-23", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.0], ["2018-03-26", 0.0], ["2018-03-27", 0.0], ["2018-03-28", 0.0], ["2018-03-29", 0.0], ["2018-03-30", 0.0], ["2018-03-31", 0.0], ["2018-03-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/486 | Afghanistan's war against the Taliban insurgency rages on as government forces fight to retain control of Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of the strategically important Helmand province (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/2017/01/afghanistan-taliban-gate-170124113723975.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://features.foreignpolicy.com/first-helmand-then-afghanistan/"target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>, <a href = "http://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-dozens-taliban-militants-killed/28364708.html"target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>).
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<hr>
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 March 2018.
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<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-03-31 | Will the Taliban take Lashkar Gah before 1 April 2018? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-05-23 | ["https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf", "http://www.nbcnews.com/card/houthi-rebels-use-another-unmanned-boat-bomb-against-saudis-n751651", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40871025", "https://www.historyguy.com/attacks_on_us_naval_ships.htm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-us-gulf-tension-idUSKBN1AE0DN", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/briefing/mogadishu-iran-north-korea.html", "http://en.alalam.ir/news/1983478", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/16/white-house-officials-push-for-widening-war-in-syria-over-pentagon-objections/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/qatar-diplomatic-crisis-latest-updates-170605105550769.html", "http://maritime-executive.com/article/saudi-forces-find-more-naval-mines-off-yemen", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-military-idUSKBN1AA1P3"] | binary | [["2017-05-23", 0.01], ["2017-05-23", 0.03], ["2017-05-23", 0.01], ["2017-05-23", 0.045], ["2017-05-23", 0.065], ["2017-05-23", 0.05], 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["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-22", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.005], ["2017-12-28", 0.005], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/490 | For the purposes of this question, a lethal attack is one that results in one US fatality. In recent months, the US Navy has had hostile encounters with Iranian naval forces (<a href = "http://www.newsweek.com/its-getting-more-dangerous-us-navy-ships-gulf-511343"target="_blank">Newsweek</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/09/politics/us-iran-warning-shots/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/26/us-navy-ship-warning-iran-vessel-fires-flare-persian-gulf"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>), and has been attacked by Houthi rebels firing missiles from Yemen (<a href = "http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/military/the-intel/sd-me-missiles-mason-20161012-htmlstory.html"target="_blank">San Diego Union Tribune</a>).
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<hr>
There was no lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 2018, will there be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-08 | 2017-06-02 | ["http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347869A1.pdf", "http://www.cnn.com/", "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/recentReleases.do", "https://energycommerce.house.gov/news/press-release/next-week-subcommtech-hold-oversight-hearing-fcc-commissioners/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491-before-1-january-2018-will-the-fcc-cease-to-regulate-broadband-service-providers-as-common-carriers-under-title-ii-of-the-communications-act/www.msnbc.com", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347868A1.pdf", "https://www.fcc.gov/news-events/events/2017/11/november-2017-open-commission-meeting", "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44356.pdf", "http://www.msnbc.com/", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1122/DOC-347927A1.pdf", "https://www.fcc.gov/about-fcc/rulemaking-process", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347875A1.pdf", "http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347902A1.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491-before-1-january-2018-will-the-fcc-cease-to-regulate-broadband-service-providers-as-common-carriers-under-title-ii-of-the-communications-act/www.cnn.com", "https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/fcc-plans-to-vote-to-overturn-u-s-net-neutrality-rules-in-december-sources/", "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-347927A1.pdf", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491-before-1-january-2018-will-the-fcc-cease-to-regulate-broadband-service-providers-as-common-carriers-under-title-ii-of-the-communications-act/www.kcbs.com", "http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/washington/fcc-moving-repeal-bright-line-net-neutrality-rules/170253", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/technology/fcc-media-ownership-rules.html", "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-347870A1.pdf", "http://www.kcbs.com/", "http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2017/11/21/trump-fcc-chair-unveils-plan-to-repeal-net-neutrality/", "https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/1113201502040/171113%20-%20CTIA%20Ex%20Parte.pdf", "http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/cfr/about.html", "https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/16/fcc-reportedly-planning-vote-that-could-kill-net-neutrality-next-month/"] | binary | [["2017-06-02", 0.0], ["2017-06-02", 0.0], ["2017-06-02", 0.0], ["2017-06-02", 0.42], ["2017-06-02", 0.635], ["2017-06-03", 0.55], ["2017-06-03", 0.48], ["2017-06-03", 0.49], ["2017-06-03", 0.5], ["2017-06-03", 0.525], ["2017-06-03", 0.5], ["2017-06-03", 0.55], ["2017-06-03", 0.7], ["2017-06-04", 0.75], ["2017-06-04", 0.75], ["2017-06-04", 0.8], ["2017-06-04", 0.775], ["2017-06-04", 0.675], ["2017-06-04", 0.6], ["2017-06-04", 0.6], ["2017-06-04", 0.6], ["2017-06-04", 0.62], ["2017-06-05", 0.64], ["2017-06-05", 0.6], ["2017-06-05", 0.6], ["2017-06-05", 0.6], ["2017-06-05", 0.6], ["2017-06-06", 0.575], ["2017-06-07", 0.575], 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["2017-07-04", 0.74], ["2017-07-05", 0.74], ["2017-07-06", 0.72], ["2017-07-07", 0.74], ["2017-07-07", 0.75], ["2017-07-10", 0.75], ["2017-07-11", 0.75], ["2017-07-11", 0.75], ["2017-07-12", 0.73], ["2017-07-12", 0.73], ["2017-07-13", 0.74], ["2017-07-14", 0.75], ["2017-07-17", 0.75], ["2017-07-18", 0.75], ["2017-07-18", 0.75], ["2017-07-18", 0.75], ["2017-07-19", 0.75], ["2017-07-20", 0.75], ["2017-07-22", 0.75], ["2017-07-23", 0.75], ["2017-07-23", 0.75], ["2017-07-24", 0.75], ["2017-07-25", 0.73], ["2017-07-25", 0.73], ["2017-07-26", 0.75], ["2017-07-26", 0.75], ["2017-07-26", 0.75], ["2017-07-27", 0.75], ["2017-07-28", 0.73], ["2017-07-29", 0.72], ["2017-07-30", 0.735], ["2017-08-01", 0.75], ["2017-08-03", 0.75], ["2017-08-03", 0.73], ["2017-08-04", 0.68], ["2017-08-07", 0.65], ["2017-08-07", 0.65], ["2017-08-08", 0.65], ["2017-08-08", 0.65], ["2017-08-09", 0.65], ["2017-08-10", 0.65], ["2017-08-10", 0.65], ["2017-08-11", 0.65], ["2017-08-12", 0.65], ["2017-08-13", 0.635], 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["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491 | Net neutrality made headlines in 2015 when the FCC issued rules that classified broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act, which limited their ability to block or prioritize some content over others (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/technology/net-neutrality-fcc-vote-internet-utility.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>). The FCC has decided to revisit the issue (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/technology/net-neutrality.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) and invited interested parties to submit comments on the issue before a decision is made later this year (<a href = "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-344614A1.pdf"target="_blank">FCC</a>, <a href = "https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/search/filings?proceedings_name=17-108&sort=date_disseminated,DESC"target="_blank">FCC</a>, <a href = "http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-net-neutrality-fcc-vote-20170518-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>).
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<hr>
The FCC did not cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Before 1 January 2018, will the FCC cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-06-06 | [] | binary | [["2017-06-06", 0.15], ["2017-06-06", 0.135], ["2017-06-06", 0.05], ["2017-06-06", 0.085], ["2017-06-06", 0.095], ["2017-06-07", 0.07], ["2017-06-07", 0.07], ["2017-06-07", 0.01], ["2017-06-07", 0.015], ["2017-06-07", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.02], ["2017-06-08", 0.08], ["2017-06-08", 0.145], ["2017-06-08", 0.315], ["2017-06-08", 0.18], ["2017-06-09", 0.125], ["2017-06-09", 0.1], ["2017-06-09", 0.1], ["2017-06-09", 0.1], ["2017-06-09", 0.1], ["2017-06-10", 0.075], ["2017-06-10", 0.075], ["2017-06-10", 0.1], ["2017-06-11", 0.1], ["2017-06-11", 0.105], ["2017-06-11", 0.105], ["2017-06-12", 0.11], ["2017-06-12", 0.12], ["2017-06-12", 0.14], ["2017-06-12", 0.15], ["2017-06-13", 0.15], ["2017-06-13", 0.145], ["2017-06-13", 0.125], ["2017-06-14", 0.125], ["2017-06-14", 0.125], ["2017-06-14", 0.15], ["2017-06-15", 0.2], ["2017-06-15", 0.175], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-15", 0.15], ["2017-06-16", 0.15], ["2017-06-16", 0.15], ["2017-06-17", 0.15], 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["2017-10-23", 0.015], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-24", 0.02], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-25", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-26", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-27", 0.01], ["2017-10-28", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-29", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-30", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-10-31", 0.01], ["2017-11-01", 0.01], ["2017-11-02", 0.01], ["2017-11-02", 0.01], ["2017-11-03", 0.01], ["2017-11-03", 0.01], ["2017-11-03", 0.01], ["2017-11-05", 0.01], ["2017-11-06", 0.005], ["2017-11-07", 0.005], ["2017-11-08", 0.005], ["2017-11-09", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-10", 0.0], ["2017-11-11", 0.0], ["2017-11-12", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-13", 0.0], ["2017-11-14", 0.0], ["2017-11-15", 0.0], ["2017-11-16", 0.0], ["2017-11-17", 0.0], ["2017-11-17", 0.0], ["2017-11-18", 0.0], ["2017-11-19", 0.0], ["2017-11-19", 0.0], ["2017-11-19", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-20", 0.0], ["2017-11-21", 0.005], ["2017-11-21", 0.005], ["2017-11-22", 0.005], ["2017-11-23", 0.005], ["2017-11-24", 0.005], ["2017-11-24", 0.0], ["2017-11-24", 0.0], ["2017-11-24", 0.0], ["2017-11-26", 0.0], ["2017-11-27", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.0], ["2017-11-28", 0.005], ["2017-11-28", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-10", 0.01], ["2017-12-11", 0.01], ["2017-12-12", 0.01], ["2017-12-13", 0.01], ["2017-12-14", 0.005], ["2017-12-14", 0.005], ["2017-12-15", 0.005], ["2017-12-16", 0.005], ["2017-12-17", 0.005], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/493 | The Syrian regime has been accused of using chemical weapons against their own people (<a href = "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Activity"target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). The April 2017 sarin gas attack on a hospital in Idlib province prompted an an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council (<a href = "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/chemical-attack-syria-170404195457304.html"target="_blank">Aljazeera</a>, <a href = "http://abcnews.go.com/International/united-nations-hold-emergency-meeting-suspected-chemical-attack/story?id=46589159"target="_blank">ABC</a>).
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<hr>
The UN Security Council did not hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-30 | Before 1 January 2018, will the UN Security Council hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria? | gjopen | 0 |
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