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2022-11-25 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-27", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.057], ["2022-05-28", 0.057], ["2022-05-28", 0.048], ["2022-05-28", 0.048], ["2022-05-28", 0.042], ["2022-05-29", 0.04], ["2022-05-29", 0.04], ["2022-05-29", 0.044], ["2022-05-29", 0.042], ["2022-05-29", 0.04], ["2022-05-29", 0.04], ["2022-05-30", 0.017], ["2022-05-30", 0.018], ["2022-05-31", 0.018], ["2022-05-31", 0.018], ["2022-06-02", 0.017], ["2022-06-07", 0.017], ["2022-06-07", 0.016], ["2022-06-08", 0.016], ["2022-06-12", 0.04], ["2022-06-12", 0.04], ["2022-06-12", 0.04], ["2022-06-14", 0.04], ["2022-06-14", 0.04], ["2022-06-14", 0.04], ["2022-06-14", 0.038], ["2022-06-14", 0.037], ["2022-06-15", 0.035], ["2022-06-15", 0.034], ["2022-06-18", 0.033], ["2022-06-19", 0.033], ["2022-06-19", 0.032], ["2022-06-21", 0.032], ["2022-06-24", 0.032], ["2022-06-28", 0.031], ["2022-07-04", 0.031], ["2022-07-05", 0.031], ["2022-07-12", 0.031], ["2022-07-15", 0.031], ["2022-07-20", 0.031], ["2022-07-27", 0.031], ["2022-08-05", 0.031], ["2022-08-18", 0.031], ["2022-08-29", 0.031], ["2022-08-31", 0.03], ["2022-09-16", 0.029], ["2022-09-16", 0.029], ["2022-09-17", 0.029], ["2022-09-17", 0.028], ["2022-09-26", 0.027], ["2022-09-29", 0.027], ["2022-10-01", 0.027], ["2022-10-04", 0.026], ["2022-10-07", 0.026], ["2022-10-14", 0.025], ["2022-10-16", 0.026], ["2022-10-30", 0.025], ["2022-10-31", 0.025], ["2022-11-02", 0.025], ["2022-11-07", 0.024], ["2022-11-10", 0.024], ["2022-11-11", 0.024], ["2022-11-12", 0.023], ["2022-11-15", 0.023], ["2022-11-16", 0.023], ["2022-11-16", 0.023], ["2022-11-16", 0.023], ["2022-11-18", 0.022], ["2022-11-20", 0.022], ["2022-11-20", 0.022], ["2022-11-20", 0.022], ["2022-11-21", 0.022], ["2022-11-21", 0.022], ["2022-11-21", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.021], ["2022-11-22", 0.021], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.021], ["2022-11-22", 0.021], ["2022-11-22", 0.021], ["2022-11-22", 0.021], ["2022-11-23", 0.021], ["2022-11-23", 0.021], ["2022-11-23", 0.021]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11006/ | The FIFA World Cup is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years. The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Qatar win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-27", 0.02], ["2022-05-28", 0.015], ["2022-05-28", 0.013], ["2022-05-28", 0.013], ["2022-05-28", 0.018], ["2022-05-28", 0.017], ["2022-05-28", 0.016], ["2022-05-28", 0.068], ["2022-05-28", 0.068], ["2022-05-28", 0.061], ["2022-05-28", 0.061], ["2022-05-29", 0.056], ["2022-05-29", 0.052], ["2022-05-29", 0.048], ["2022-05-29", 0.043], ["2022-05-29", 0.038], ["2022-05-29", 0.036], ["2022-05-30", 0.015], ["2022-05-30", 0.015], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-06-02", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-08", 0.014], ["2022-06-11", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.04], ["2022-06-12", 0.04], ["2022-06-12", 0.04], ["2022-06-14", 0.04], ["2022-06-14", 0.039], ["2022-06-15", 0.039], ["2022-06-18", 0.036], ["2022-06-19", 0.036], ["2022-06-19", 0.035], ["2022-06-21", 0.034], ["2022-06-24", 0.034], ["2022-06-28", 0.034], ["2022-07-05", 0.034], ["2022-07-12", 0.034], ["2022-07-15", 0.033], ["2022-07-20", 0.033], ["2022-07-27", 0.033], ["2022-08-05", 0.033], ["2022-08-18", 0.033], ["2022-08-29", 0.032], ["2022-08-31", 0.032], ["2022-09-16", 0.032], ["2022-09-16", 0.032], ["2022-09-17", 0.031], ["2022-09-17", 0.03], ["2022-09-26", 0.03], ["2022-09-29", 0.029], ["2022-10-04", 0.028], ["2022-10-07", 0.028], ["2022-10-14", 0.027], ["2022-10-16", 0.027], ["2022-10-16", 0.027], ["2022-10-25", 0.027], ["2022-10-30", 0.027], ["2022-11-02", 0.026], ["2022-11-07", 0.026], ["2022-11-10", 0.025], ["2022-11-12", 0.025], ["2022-11-15", 0.025], ["2022-11-16", 0.024], ["2022-11-16", 0.024], ["2022-11-18", 0.024], ["2022-11-20", 0.024], ["2022-11-20", 0.024], ["2022-11-20", 0.024], ["2022-11-20", 0.04], ["2022-11-21", 0.023], ["2022-11-21", 0.023], ["2022-11-21", 0.023], ["2022-11-22", 0.023], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-23", 0.022], ["2022-11-23", 0.022], ["2022-11-23", 0.022], ["2022-11-25", 0.022], ["2022-11-26", 0.022], ["2022-11-26", 0.021], ["2022-11-27", 0.021], ["2022-11-27", 0.021], ["2022-11-27", 0.021], ["2022-11-27", 0.021], ["2022-11-28", 0.021], ["2022-11-29", 0.031], ["2022-11-29", 0.036], ["2022-11-29", 0.035], ["2022-11-29", 0.049], ["2022-11-29", 0.049], ["2022-11-29", 0.048], ["2022-11-29", 0.048], ["2022-11-29", 0.051], ["2022-11-29", 0.05]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11007/ | The FIFA World Cup is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years. The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Ecuador win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.02], ["2022-05-28", 0.013], ["2022-05-28", 0.022], ["2022-05-28", 0.069], ["2022-05-28", 0.057], ["2022-05-29", 0.053], ["2022-05-29", 0.058], ["2022-05-29", 0.058], ["2022-05-29", 0.05], ["2022-05-29", 0.049], ["2022-05-30", 0.026], ["2022-05-31", 0.026], ["2022-05-31", 0.025], ["2022-06-02", 0.024], ["2022-06-05", 0.024], ["2022-06-07", 0.025], ["2022-06-07", 0.023], ["2022-06-08", 0.023], ["2022-06-11", 0.023], ["2022-06-12", 0.036], ["2022-06-12", 0.036], ["2022-06-14", 0.035], ["2022-06-14", 0.035], ["2022-06-14", 0.034], ["2022-06-14", 0.053], ["2022-06-14", 0.053], ["2022-06-15", 0.053], ["2022-06-15", 0.046], ["2022-06-17", 0.046], ["2022-06-18", 0.043], ["2022-06-19", 0.043], ["2022-06-19", 0.041], ["2022-06-21", 0.041], ["2022-06-24", 0.041], ["2022-06-28", 0.04], ["2022-07-05", 0.04], ["2022-07-12", 0.04], ["2022-07-15", 0.04], ["2022-07-20", 0.039], ["2022-07-27", 0.039], ["2022-08-05", 0.039], ["2022-08-18", 0.039], ["2022-08-29", 0.039], ["2022-08-31", 0.038], ["2022-09-16", 0.037], ["2022-09-16", 0.037], ["2022-09-17", 0.036], ["2022-09-17", 0.036], ["2022-09-26", 0.034], ["2022-09-29", 0.034], ["2022-10-04", 0.034], ["2022-10-07", 0.032], ["2022-10-14", 0.032], ["2022-10-16", 0.032], ["2022-10-16", 0.032], ["2022-11-02", 0.032], ["2022-11-10", 0.031], ["2022-11-11", 0.031], ["2022-11-12", 0.03], ["2022-11-12", 0.03], ["2022-11-15", 0.029], ["2022-11-16", 0.028], ["2022-11-16", 0.028], ["2022-11-18", 0.028], ["2022-11-20", 0.028], ["2022-11-20", 0.027], ["2022-11-21", 0.027], ["2022-11-22", 0.026], ["2022-11-22", 0.026], ["2022-11-22", 0.025], ["2022-11-22", 0.025], ["2022-11-22", 0.025], ["2022-11-23", 0.024], ["2022-11-23", 0.024], ["2022-11-27", 0.024], ["2022-11-27", 0.024], ["2022-11-28", 0.023], ["2022-11-29", 0.023], ["2022-11-29", 0.023], ["2022-11-29", 0.023], ["2022-11-29", 0.026], ["2022-11-29", 0.026], ["2022-11-30", 0.026], ["2022-11-30", 0.025], ["2022-11-30", 0.031], ["2022-11-30", 0.025], ["2022-11-30", 0.025], ["2022-11-30", 0.025], ["2022-12-01", 0.024], ["2022-12-01", 0.021], ["2022-12-01", 0.022], ["2022-12-01", 0.021], ["2022-12-02", 0.021], ["2022-12-02", 0.021], ["2022-12-03", 0.021], ["2022-12-03", 0.021], ["2022-12-03", 0.021], ["2022-12-03", 0.021], ["2022-12-03", 0.021], ["2022-12-04", 0.021], ["2022-12-04", 0.021]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11008/ | The FIFA World Cup is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years. The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Senegal win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.06], ["2022-05-28", 0.122], ["2022-05-29", 0.117], ["2022-05-30", 0.134], ["2022-05-30", 0.134], ["2022-05-31", 0.108], ["2022-05-31", 0.104], ["2022-06-02", 0.1], ["2022-06-02", 0.1], ["2022-06-07", 0.097], ["2022-06-07", 0.095], ["2022-06-11", 0.095], ["2022-06-11", 0.097], ["2022-06-12", 0.123], ["2022-06-12", 0.123], ["2022-06-14", 0.122], ["2022-06-14", 0.119], ["2022-06-15", 0.115], ["2022-06-15", 0.109], ["2022-06-18", 0.109], ["2022-06-19", 0.106], ["2022-06-19", 0.106], ["2022-06-21", 0.106], ["2022-06-21", 0.106], ["2022-06-24", 0.104], ["2022-06-24", 0.105], ["2022-06-28", 0.105], ["2022-06-30", 0.105], ["2022-07-05", 0.105], ["2022-07-12", 0.105], ["2022-07-15", 0.104], ["2022-07-20", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.104], ["2022-08-05", 0.104], ["2022-08-18", 0.104], ["2022-08-29", 0.103], ["2022-08-31", 0.103], ["2022-09-16", 0.102], ["2022-09-17", 0.119], ["2022-09-17", 0.117], ["2022-09-19", 0.117], ["2022-09-20", 0.116], ["2022-09-26", 0.116], ["2022-10-01", 0.12], ["2022-10-02", 0.122], ["2022-10-03", 0.123], ["2022-10-04", 0.121], ["2022-10-07", 0.121], ["2022-10-08", 0.116], ["2022-10-14", 0.113], ["2022-10-16", 0.113], ["2022-10-16", 0.113], ["2022-10-22", 0.115], ["2022-10-30", 0.113], ["2022-11-05", 0.113], ["2022-11-10", 0.113], ["2022-11-10", 0.113], ["2022-11-12", 0.1], ["2022-11-12", 0.099], ["2022-11-15", 0.099], ["2022-11-16", 0.098], ["2022-11-16", 0.099], ["2022-11-18", 0.097], ["2022-11-18", 0.097], ["2022-11-19", 0.095], ["2022-11-20", 0.094], ["2022-11-20", 0.093], ["2022-11-21", 0.093], ["2022-11-22", 0.088], ["2022-11-23", 0.087], ["2022-11-23", 0.094], ["2022-11-24", 0.093], ["2022-11-24", 0.094], ["2022-11-25", 0.094], ["2022-11-26", 0.093], ["2022-11-26", 0.093], ["2022-11-27", 0.102], ["2022-11-27", 0.101], ["2022-11-28", 0.1], ["2022-11-28", 0.099], ["2022-11-29", 0.101], ["2022-11-29", 0.101], ["2022-11-29", 0.109], ["2022-11-30", 0.105], ["2022-12-01", 0.099], ["2022-12-01", 0.101], ["2022-12-02", 0.094], ["2022-12-02", 0.093], ["2022-12-03", 0.091], ["2022-12-03", 0.091], ["2022-12-04", 0.104], ["2022-12-04", 0.105], ["2022-12-04", 0.105], ["2022-12-05", 0.106], ["2022-12-06", 0.104], ["2022-12-06", 0.104], ["2022-12-07", 0.117], ["2022-12-08", 0.114], ["2022-12-08", 0.115], ["2022-12-09", 0.116], ["2022-12-09", 0.117]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11009/ | The FIFA World Cup is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years. The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Netherlands win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-27", 0.02], ["2022-05-28", 0.02], ["2022-05-28", 0.02], ["2022-05-28", 0.024], ["2022-05-28", 0.055], ["2022-05-29", 0.051], ["2022-05-29", 0.043], ["2022-05-29", 0.041], ["2022-05-30", 0.018], ["2022-05-31", 0.018], ["2022-05-31", 0.018], ["2022-06-02", 0.017], ["2022-06-07", 0.017], ["2022-06-07", 0.016], ["2022-06-08", 0.016], ["2022-06-08", 0.016], ["2022-06-12", 0.048], ["2022-06-12", 0.048], ["2022-06-12", 0.049], ["2022-06-14", 0.049], ["2022-06-14", 0.05], ["2022-06-14", 0.049], ["2022-06-15", 0.047], ["2022-06-15", 0.048], ["2022-06-17", 0.045], ["2022-06-18", 0.045], ["2022-06-19", 0.045], ["2022-06-19", 0.043], ["2022-06-21", 0.039], ["2022-06-22", 0.039], ["2022-06-24", 0.039], ["2022-06-24", 0.038], ["2022-06-26", 0.039], ["2022-06-28", 0.039], ["2022-07-05", 0.039], ["2022-07-12", 0.039], ["2022-07-15", 0.038], ["2022-07-20", 0.038], ["2022-07-27", 0.042], ["2022-08-05", 0.038], ["2022-08-18", 0.042], ["2022-08-29", 0.041], ["2022-08-31", 0.041], ["2022-09-16", 0.041], ["2022-09-16", 0.039], ["2022-09-17", 0.039], ["2022-09-17", 0.038], ["2022-09-26", 0.038], ["2022-09-26", 0.037], ["2022-09-29", 0.036], ["2022-10-04", 0.036], ["2022-10-07", 0.035], ["2022-10-14", 0.035], ["2022-10-16", 0.035], ["2022-10-16", 0.035], ["2022-10-30", 0.034], ["2022-11-02", 0.034], ["2022-11-10", 0.033], ["2022-11-11", 0.032], ["2022-11-12", 0.032], ["2022-11-15", 0.032], ["2022-11-16", 0.031], ["2022-11-16", 0.031], ["2022-11-18", 0.031], ["2022-11-20", 0.03], ["2022-11-20", 0.03], ["2022-11-21", 0.03], ["2022-11-22", 0.028], ["2022-11-22", 0.028], ["2022-11-22", 0.027], ["2022-11-22", 0.027], ["2022-11-23", 0.028], ["2022-11-23", 0.028], ["2022-11-23", 0.028], ["2022-11-24", 0.027], ["2022-11-26", 0.027], ["2022-11-26", 0.027], ["2022-11-27", 0.027], ["2022-11-27", 0.027], ["2022-11-27", 0.026], ["2022-11-28", 0.026], ["2022-11-28", 0.029], ["2022-11-28", 0.028], ["2022-11-29", 0.028], ["2022-11-29", 0.026], ["2022-11-29", 0.03], ["2022-11-30", 0.029], ["2022-11-30", 0.029], ["2022-11-30", 0.029], ["2022-11-30", 0.029], ["2022-11-30", 0.028], ["2022-12-01", 0.025], ["2022-12-01", 0.028], ["2022-12-01", 0.032], ["2022-12-02", 0.032], ["2022-12-02", 0.031], ["2022-12-02", 0.031], ["2022-12-03", 0.031], ["2022-12-03", 0.03], ["2022-12-03", 0.03], ["2022-12-03", 0.03]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11010/ | The FIFA World Cup is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years. The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will United States of America win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will England win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Iran win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Wales win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Argentina win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 1 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Saudi Arabia win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Mexico win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Poland win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will France win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Australia win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Denmark win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Tunisia win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Switzerland win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Cameroon win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Spain win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Costa Rica win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Germany win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Japan win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Belgium win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Canada win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Morocco win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Croatia win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Brazil win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Serbia win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Portugal win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Ghana win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will Uruguay win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.02], ["2022-05-28", 0.065], ["2022-05-28", 0.054], ["2022-05-29", 0.054], ["2022-05-29", 0.047], ["2022-05-29", 0.044], ["2022-05-29", 0.041], ["2022-05-30", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-06-02", 0.051], ["2022-06-02", 0.016], ["2022-06-07", 0.016], ["2022-06-07", 0.015], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-08", 0.014], ["2022-06-12", 0.041], ["2022-06-12", 0.041], ["2022-06-12", 0.042], ["2022-06-14", 0.041], ["2022-06-14", 0.039], ["2022-06-14", 0.039], ["2022-06-15", 0.038], ["2022-06-18", 0.036], ["2022-06-19", 0.035], ["2022-06-19", 0.034], ["2022-06-21", 0.034], ["2022-06-24", 0.034], ["2022-06-28", 0.034], ["2022-07-05", 0.034], ["2022-07-12", 0.034], ["2022-07-15", 0.033], ["2022-07-20", 0.033], ["2022-07-27", 0.033], ["2022-08-05", 0.033], ["2022-08-18", 0.033], ["2022-08-29", 0.033], ["2022-08-29", 0.033], ["2022-08-31", 0.033], ["2022-09-16", 0.033], ["2022-09-16", 0.032], ["2022-09-17", 0.031], ["2022-09-17", 0.031], ["2022-09-26", 0.029], ["2022-09-29", 0.029], ["2022-10-04", 0.028], ["2022-10-07", 0.028], ["2022-10-14", 0.028], ["2022-10-16", 0.028], ["2022-10-16", 0.028], ["2022-10-30", 0.027], ["2022-11-02", 0.027], ["2022-11-10", 0.026], ["2022-11-11", 0.026], ["2022-11-12", 0.025], ["2022-11-15", 0.025], ["2022-11-16", 0.025], ["2022-11-16", 0.025], ["2022-11-16", 0.024], ["2022-11-18", 0.024], ["2022-11-20", 0.024], ["2022-11-20", 0.023], ["2022-11-21", 0.023], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-22", 0.022], ["2022-11-23", 0.022], ["2022-11-23", 0.021], ["2022-11-27", 0.021], ["2022-11-27", 0.021], ["2022-11-28", 0.021], ["2022-11-29", 0.021], ["2022-11-29", 0.02], ["2022-11-29", 0.024], ["2022-11-29", 0.024], ["2022-11-30", 0.023], ["2022-11-30", 0.023], ["2022-11-30", 0.023], ["2022-11-30", 0.023], ["2022-11-30", 0.023], ["2022-11-30", 0.023], ["2022-12-01", 0.019], ["2022-12-01", 0.019], ["2022-12-01", 0.019], ["2022-12-01", 0.018], ["2022-12-03", 0.018], ["2022-12-03", 0.018], ["2022-12-03", 0.018], ["2022-12-03", 0.018], ["2022-12-03", 0.018], ["2022-12-04", 0.018], ["2022-12-04", 0.018], ["2022-12-04", 0.018], ["2022-12-04", 0.018], ["2022-12-05", 0.018], ["2022-12-05", 0.018], ["2022-12-05", 0.02]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11037/ | The FIFA World Cup is an international association football tournament held among men's national football teams every 4 years. The 2022 World Cup is scheduled to be held in Qatar between November 21 and December 18, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No.
Fine Print
If FIFA does not hold an international football tournament among men's national teams in 2022, or FIFA reschedules or relocates the 2022 World Cup and does not refer to it as the "2022 FIFA World Cup", this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will South Korea win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.12], ["2022-05-28", 0.12], ["2022-05-28", 0.13], ["2022-05-28", 0.153], ["2022-05-28", 0.16], ["2022-05-29", 0.14], ["2022-05-29", 0.132], ["2022-05-29", 0.125], ["2022-05-31", 0.119], ["2022-05-31", 0.116], ["2022-05-31", 0.116], ["2022-06-01", 0.116], ["2022-06-01", 0.113], ["2022-06-07", 0.106], ["2022-06-07", 0.106], ["2022-06-07", 0.106], ["2022-06-09", 0.111], ["2022-06-12", 0.14], ["2022-06-12", 0.14], ["2022-06-12", 0.141], ["2022-06-14", 0.148], ["2022-06-17", 0.148], ["2022-06-18", 0.15], ["2022-06-18", 0.153], ["2022-06-18", 0.153], ["2022-06-18", 0.158], ["2022-06-18", 0.158], ["2022-06-19", 0.161], ["2022-06-19", 0.174], ["2022-06-19", 0.174], ["2022-06-20", 0.172], ["2022-06-20", 0.173], ["2022-06-20", 0.174], ["2022-06-20", 0.172], ["2022-06-20", 0.179], ["2022-06-21", 0.179], ["2022-06-21", 0.174], ["2022-06-21", 0.174], ["2022-06-21", 0.182], ["2022-06-21", 0.193], ["2022-06-22", 0.196], ["2022-06-22", 0.196], ["2022-06-23", 0.201], ["2022-06-23", 0.205], ["2022-06-23", 0.202], ["2022-06-23", 0.21], ["2022-06-23", 0.21], ["2022-06-23", 0.219], ["2022-06-24", 0.219], ["2022-06-24", 0.23], ["2022-06-25", 0.225], ["2022-06-25", 0.225], ["2022-06-25", 0.228], ["2022-06-25", 0.237], ["2022-06-25", 0.237], ["2022-06-25", 0.246], ["2022-06-25", 0.253], ["2022-06-26", 0.261], ["2022-06-26", 0.261], ["2022-06-26", 0.272], ["2022-06-26", 0.273], ["2022-06-27", 0.275], ["2022-06-27", 0.279], ["2022-06-27", 0.285], ["2022-06-27", 0.29], ["2022-06-27", 0.297], ["2022-06-27", 0.299], ["2022-06-27", 0.33], ["2022-06-28", 0.33], ["2022-06-28", 0.372], ["2022-06-28", 0.372], ["2022-06-28", 0.387], ["2022-06-29", 0.387], ["2022-06-29", 0.426], ["2022-06-29", 0.436], ["2022-06-29", 0.476], ["2022-06-29", 0.484], ["2022-06-29", 0.486], ["2022-06-29", 0.488], ["2022-06-30", 0.488], ["2022-06-30", 0.524], ["2022-06-30", 0.524], ["2022-06-30", 0.525], ["2022-06-30", 0.53], ["2022-06-30", 0.542], ["2022-06-30", 0.563], ["2022-06-30", 0.59], ["2022-07-01", 0.593], ["2022-07-01", 0.593], ["2022-07-01", 0.609], ["2022-07-01", 0.613], ["2022-07-01", 0.613], ["2022-07-01", 0.617], ["2022-07-01", 0.617], ["2022-07-01", 0.62], ["2022-07-02", 0.621], ["2022-07-02", 0.634], ["2022-07-02", 0.647], ["2022-07-02", 0.642], ["2022-07-02", 0.66], ["2022-07-03", 0.66]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11088/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.06], ["2022-05-28", 0.06], ["2022-05-28", 0.06], ["2022-05-28", 0.053], ["2022-05-28", 0.053], ["2022-05-29", 0.046], ["2022-05-29", 0.11], ["2022-05-31", 0.048], ["2022-05-31", 0.05], ["2022-05-31", 0.05], ["2022-05-31", 0.056], ["2022-06-01", 0.056], ["2022-06-01", 0.053], ["2022-06-07", 0.045], ["2022-06-07", 0.044], ["2022-06-09", 0.042], ["2022-06-11", 0.042], ["2022-06-12", 0.082], ["2022-06-12", 0.084], ["2022-06-12", 0.084], ["2022-06-12", 0.084], ["2022-06-14", 0.086], ["2022-06-14", 0.086], ["2022-06-17", 0.083], ["2022-06-18", 0.079], ["2022-06-18", 0.079], ["2022-06-19", 0.077], ["2022-06-19", 0.077], ["2022-06-19", 0.077], ["2022-06-19", 0.076], ["2022-06-20", 0.078], ["2022-06-20", 0.078], ["2022-06-21", 0.076], ["2022-06-21", 0.073], ["2022-06-21", 0.073], ["2022-06-21", 0.072], ["2022-06-23", 0.072], ["2022-06-23", 0.074], ["2022-06-23", 0.074], ["2022-06-23", 0.068], ["2022-06-23", 0.069], ["2022-06-24", 0.071], ["2022-06-24", 0.074], ["2022-06-25", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.074], ["2022-06-25", 0.086], ["2022-06-25", 0.086], ["2022-06-26", 0.087], ["2022-06-26", 0.085], ["2022-06-26", 0.085], ["2022-06-26", 0.083], ["2022-06-27", 0.083], ["2022-06-27", 0.083], ["2022-06-28", 0.08], ["2022-06-28", 0.08], ["2022-06-28", 0.077], ["2022-06-28", 0.077], ["2022-06-28", 0.077], ["2022-06-29", 0.077], ["2022-06-30", 0.074], ["2022-06-30", 0.074], ["2022-06-30", 0.074], ["2022-06-30", 0.073], ["2022-06-30", 0.073], ["2022-06-30", 0.069], ["2022-07-01", 0.069], ["2022-07-01", 0.067], ["2022-07-01", 0.064], ["2022-07-02", 0.064], ["2022-07-02", 0.062]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11089/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Teimour Radjabov win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.13], ["2022-05-28", 0.095], ["2022-05-28", 0.1], ["2022-05-28", 0.088], ["2022-05-29", 0.078], ["2022-05-29", 0.138], ["2022-05-31", 0.138], ["2022-05-31", 0.073], ["2022-05-31", 0.069], ["2022-06-01", 0.068], ["2022-06-01", 0.068], ["2022-06-01", 0.066], ["2022-06-07", 0.061], ["2022-06-07", 0.06], ["2022-06-09", 0.06], ["2022-06-12", 0.059], ["2022-06-12", 0.112], ["2022-06-12", 0.112], ["2022-06-13", 0.114], ["2022-06-14", 0.117], ["2022-06-14", 0.118], ["2022-06-14", 0.118], ["2022-06-14", 0.12], ["2022-06-17", 0.121], ["2022-06-18", 0.118], ["2022-06-19", 0.114], ["2022-06-19", 0.111], ["2022-06-19", 0.111], ["2022-06-19", 0.109], ["2022-06-20", 0.106], ["2022-06-21", 0.106], ["2022-06-21", 0.106], ["2022-06-21", 0.104], ["2022-06-21", 0.104], ["2022-06-21", 0.1], ["2022-06-21", 0.103], ["2022-06-21", 0.104], ["2022-06-22", 0.104], ["2022-06-23", 0.103], ["2022-06-23", 0.104], ["2022-06-23", 0.104], ["2022-06-23", 0.1], ["2022-06-23", 0.102], ["2022-06-23", 0.101], ["2022-06-23", 0.098], ["2022-06-23", 0.098], ["2022-06-24", 0.1], ["2022-06-24", 0.099], ["2022-06-24", 0.102], ["2022-06-25", 0.103], ["2022-06-25", 0.103], ["2022-06-25", 0.1], ["2022-06-25", 0.103], ["2022-06-25", 0.115], ["2022-06-25", 0.116], ["2022-06-26", 0.117], ["2022-06-26", 0.116], ["2022-06-26", 0.116], ["2022-06-27", 0.116], ["2022-06-27", 0.115], ["2022-06-27", 0.11], ["2022-06-28", 0.109], ["2022-06-28", 0.109], ["2022-06-28", 0.107], ["2022-06-28", 0.106], ["2022-06-28", 0.105], ["2022-06-29", 0.101], ["2022-06-30", 0.101], ["2022-06-30", 0.101], ["2022-06-30", 0.1], ["2022-06-30", 0.1], ["2022-06-30", 0.1], ["2022-07-01", 0.099], ["2022-07-01", 0.097], ["2022-07-01", 0.095], ["2022-07-01", 0.092], ["2022-07-02", 0.092], ["2022-07-02", 0.091], ["2022-07-02", 0.088]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11090/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.21], ["2022-05-28", 0.255], ["2022-05-28", 0.28], ["2022-05-28", 0.262], ["2022-05-28", 0.262], ["2022-05-29", 0.24], ["2022-05-29", 0.242], ["2022-05-29", 0.259], ["2022-05-31", 0.28], ["2022-05-31", 0.232], ["2022-05-31", 0.235], ["2022-05-31", 0.234], ["2022-05-31", 0.232], ["2022-05-31", 0.232], ["2022-06-01", 0.215], ["2022-06-01", 0.213], ["2022-06-01", 0.212], ["2022-06-07", 0.212], ["2022-06-07", 0.205], ["2022-06-07", 0.205], ["2022-06-09", 0.198], ["2022-06-09", 0.198], ["2022-06-12", 0.226], ["2022-06-12", 0.226], ["2022-06-12", 0.227], ["2022-06-14", 0.227], ["2022-06-14", 0.227], ["2022-06-17", 0.223], ["2022-06-18", 0.223], ["2022-06-18", 0.223], ["2022-06-18", 0.223], ["2022-06-18", 0.23], ["2022-06-18", 0.221], ["2022-06-18", 0.217], ["2022-06-19", 0.217], ["2022-06-19", 0.224], ["2022-06-19", 0.227], ["2022-06-19", 0.225], ["2022-06-19", 0.222], ["2022-06-20", 0.222], ["2022-06-20", 0.222], ["2022-06-20", 0.224], ["2022-06-21", 0.224], ["2022-06-21", 0.222], ["2022-06-21", 0.225], ["2022-06-21", 0.225], ["2022-06-21", 0.231], ["2022-06-21", 0.227], ["2022-06-21", 0.226], ["2022-06-21", 0.225], ["2022-06-22", 0.225], ["2022-06-22", 0.225], ["2022-06-22", 0.224], ["2022-06-23", 0.222], ["2022-06-23", 0.216], ["2022-06-23", 0.216], ["2022-06-23", 0.214], ["2022-06-23", 0.197], ["2022-06-23", 0.196], ["2022-06-23", 0.196], ["2022-06-23", 0.187], ["2022-06-24", 0.187], ["2022-06-24", 0.187], ["2022-06-25", 0.189], ["2022-06-25", 0.184], ["2022-06-25", 0.183], ["2022-06-25", 0.183], ["2022-06-25", 0.18], ["2022-06-25", 0.18], ["2022-06-25", 0.187], ["2022-06-25", 0.184], ["2022-06-25", 0.184], ["2022-06-26", 0.184], ["2022-06-26", 0.183], ["2022-06-26", 0.183], ["2022-06-26", 0.177], ["2022-06-26", 0.177], ["2022-06-27", 0.177], ["2022-06-27", 0.176], ["2022-06-27", 0.177], ["2022-06-27", 0.171], ["2022-06-28", 0.166], ["2022-06-28", 0.167], ["2022-06-29", 0.16], ["2022-06-29", 0.159], ["2022-06-29", 0.159], ["2022-06-30", 0.158], ["2022-06-30", 0.158], ["2022-06-30", 0.15], ["2022-06-30", 0.148], ["2022-06-30", 0.184], ["2022-06-30", 0.146], ["2022-06-30", 0.142], ["2022-07-01", 0.139], ["2022-07-01", 0.139], ["2022-07-01", 0.134], ["2022-07-01", 0.133], ["2022-07-02", 0.132], ["2022-07-02", 0.137], ["2022-07-02", 0.128], ["2022-07-02", 0.124]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11091/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.09], ["2022-05-28", 0.12], ["2022-05-28", 0.147], ["2022-05-28", 0.147], ["2022-05-29", 0.173], ["2022-05-29", 0.205], ["2022-05-29", 0.205], ["2022-05-29", 0.233], ["2022-05-31", 0.233], ["2022-05-31", 0.186], ["2022-05-31", 0.19], ["2022-05-31", 0.191], ["2022-06-01", 0.203], ["2022-06-01", 0.192], ["2022-06-07", 0.186], ["2022-06-07", 0.186], ["2022-06-07", 0.183], ["2022-06-09", 0.187], ["2022-06-12", 0.221], ["2022-06-12", 0.221], ["2022-06-12", 0.223], ["2022-06-13", 0.224], ["2022-06-13", 0.229], ["2022-06-14", 0.229], ["2022-06-14", 0.229], ["2022-06-17", 0.229], ["2022-06-17", 0.23], ["2022-06-18", 0.233], ["2022-06-18", 0.235], ["2022-06-18", 0.232], ["2022-06-18", 0.241], ["2022-06-19", 0.248], ["2022-06-19", 0.257], ["2022-06-19", 0.257], ["2022-06-19", 0.257], ["2022-06-20", 0.257], ["2022-06-20", 0.256], ["2022-06-20", 0.262], ["2022-06-21", 0.27], ["2022-06-21", 0.273], ["2022-06-21", 0.273], ["2022-06-21", 0.271], ["2022-06-22", 0.271], ["2022-06-23", 0.272], ["2022-06-23", 0.272], ["2022-06-23", 0.274], ["2022-06-23", 0.275], ["2022-06-23", 0.278], ["2022-06-23", 0.28], ["2022-06-24", 0.286], ["2022-06-24", 0.286], ["2022-06-24", 0.286], ["2022-06-25", 0.284], ["2022-06-25", 0.285], ["2022-06-25", 0.286], ["2022-06-25", 0.29], ["2022-06-25", 0.297], ["2022-06-25", 0.298], ["2022-06-26", 0.304], ["2022-06-26", 0.307], ["2022-06-26", 0.306], ["2022-06-26", 0.304], ["2022-06-26", 0.296], ["2022-06-26", 0.292], ["2022-06-27", 0.29], ["2022-06-27", 0.291], ["2022-06-27", 0.286], ["2022-06-27", 0.286], ["2022-06-27", 0.29], ["2022-06-27", 0.29], ["2022-06-27", 0.283], ["2022-06-28", 0.28], ["2022-06-28", 0.286], ["2022-06-28", 0.286], ["2022-06-29", 0.286], ["2022-06-29", 0.277], ["2022-06-29", 0.26], ["2022-06-29", 0.26], ["2022-06-29", 0.252], ["2022-06-29", 0.252], ["2022-06-29", 0.225], ["2022-06-30", 0.22], ["2022-06-30", 0.216], ["2022-06-30", 0.214], ["2022-06-30", 0.211], ["2022-06-30", 0.211], ["2022-06-30", 0.213], ["2022-06-30", 0.207], ["2022-06-30", 0.193], ["2022-07-01", 0.191], ["2022-07-01", 0.184], ["2022-07-01", 0.184], ["2022-07-01", 0.167], ["2022-07-01", 0.166], ["2022-07-01", 0.165], ["2022-07-01", 0.165], ["2022-07-01", 0.165], ["2022-07-02", 0.163], ["2022-07-02", 0.163], ["2022-07-02", 0.158], ["2022-07-02", 0.147]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11092/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.12], ["2022-05-28", 0.12], ["2022-05-28", 0.115], ["2022-05-28", 0.115], ["2022-05-28", 0.167], ["2022-05-28", 0.15], ["2022-05-29", 0.14], ["2022-05-29", 0.192], ["2022-05-31", 0.192], ["2022-05-31", 0.112], ["2022-05-31", 0.111], ["2022-05-31", 0.111], ["2022-05-31", 0.106], ["2022-06-01", 0.106], ["2022-06-01", 0.093], ["2022-06-07", 0.086], ["2022-06-07", 0.086], ["2022-06-07", 0.081], ["2022-06-09", 0.081], ["2022-06-11", 0.083], ["2022-06-11", 0.083], ["2022-06-17", 0.084], ["2022-06-18", 0.085], ["2022-06-18", 0.085], ["2022-06-18", 0.086], ["2022-06-18", 0.085], ["2022-06-18", 0.087], ["2022-06-18", 0.085], ["2022-06-19", 0.085], ["2022-06-19", 0.079], ["2022-06-19", 0.078], ["2022-06-20", 0.078], ["2022-06-21", 0.078], ["2022-06-21", 0.079], ["2022-06-21", 0.078], ["2022-06-21", 0.078], ["2022-06-21", 0.078], ["2022-06-21", 0.077], ["2022-06-22", 0.078], ["2022-06-23", 0.077], ["2022-06-23", 0.077], ["2022-06-23", 0.076], ["2022-06-23", 0.077], ["2022-06-23", 0.077], ["2022-06-23", 0.077], ["2022-06-24", 0.078], ["2022-06-25", 0.082], ["2022-06-25", 0.082], ["2022-06-25", 0.084], ["2022-06-25", 0.084], ["2022-06-25", 0.083], ["2022-06-25", 0.095], ["2022-06-25", 0.094], ["2022-06-26", 0.094], ["2022-06-26", 0.095], ["2022-06-26", 0.095], ["2022-06-26", 0.101], ["2022-06-26", 0.108], ["2022-06-27", 0.108], ["2022-06-27", 0.108], ["2022-06-27", 0.106], ["2022-06-27", 0.106], ["2022-06-27", 0.102], ["2022-06-27", 0.098], ["2022-06-27", 0.097], ["2022-06-27", 0.094], ["2022-06-28", 0.1], ["2022-06-28", 0.098], ["2022-06-28", 0.104], ["2022-06-29", 0.1], ["2022-06-29", 0.1], ["2022-06-29", 0.1], ["2022-06-29", 0.099], ["2022-06-29", 0.1], ["2022-06-29", 0.1], ["2022-06-29", 0.101], ["2022-06-29", 0.097], ["2022-06-29", 0.097], ["2022-06-30", 0.099], ["2022-06-30", 0.099], ["2022-06-30", 0.099], ["2022-06-30", 0.099], ["2022-06-30", 0.097], ["2022-06-30", 0.096], ["2022-06-30", 0.096], ["2022-06-30", 0.094], ["2022-06-30", 0.093], ["2022-06-30", 0.093], ["2022-07-01", 0.091], ["2022-07-01", 0.088], ["2022-07-01", 0.084], ["2022-07-01", 0.082], ["2022-07-01", 0.081], ["2022-07-01", 0.081], ["2022-07-01", 0.081], ["2022-07-01", 0.081], ["2022-07-02", 0.08], ["2022-07-02", 0.079], ["2022-07-02", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.076]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11093/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.04], ["2022-05-28", 0.07], ["2022-05-28", 0.06], ["2022-05-28", 0.065], ["2022-05-28", 0.065], ["2022-05-28", 0.083], ["2022-05-29", 0.075], ["2022-05-29", 0.08], ["2022-05-29", 0.131], ["2022-05-31", 0.131], ["2022-05-31", 0.076], ["2022-05-31", 0.076], ["2022-05-31", 0.073], ["2022-06-01", 0.073], ["2022-06-01", 0.066], ["2022-06-01", 0.062], ["2022-06-07", 0.062], ["2022-06-07", 0.058], ["2022-06-09", 0.058], ["2022-06-12", 0.101], ["2022-06-12", 0.101], ["2022-06-12", 0.103], ["2022-06-13", 0.103], ["2022-06-14", 0.104], ["2022-06-14", 0.098], ["2022-06-14", 0.097], ["2022-06-17", 0.096], ["2022-06-18", 0.092], ["2022-06-18", 0.092], ["2022-06-18", 0.093], ["2022-06-18", 0.095], ["2022-06-19", 0.095], ["2022-06-19", 0.093], ["2022-06-19", 0.09], ["2022-06-21", 0.09], ["2022-06-21", 0.09], ["2022-06-21", 0.091], ["2022-06-21", 0.088], ["2022-06-21", 0.089], ["2022-06-21", 0.089], ["2022-06-21", 0.085], ["2022-06-22", 0.085], ["2022-06-23", 0.084], ["2022-06-23", 0.084], ["2022-06-23", 0.084], ["2022-06-23", 0.085], ["2022-06-23", 0.085], ["2022-06-23", 0.087], ["2022-06-23", 0.088], ["2022-06-24", 0.091], ["2022-06-24", 0.091], ["2022-06-25", 0.094], ["2022-06-25", 0.096], ["2022-06-25", 0.092], ["2022-06-25", 0.089], ["2022-06-25", 0.099], ["2022-06-25", 0.096], ["2022-06-25", 0.095], ["2022-06-26", 0.096], ["2022-06-26", 0.095], ["2022-06-26", 0.095], ["2022-06-26", 0.096], ["2022-06-27", 0.096], ["2022-06-27", 0.095], ["2022-06-27", 0.093], ["2022-06-27", 0.09], ["2022-06-28", 0.09], ["2022-06-28", 0.093], ["2022-06-28", 0.093], ["2022-06-29", 0.092], ["2022-06-29", 0.088], ["2022-06-29", 0.087], ["2022-06-30", 0.085], ["2022-06-30", 0.083], ["2022-06-30", 0.083], ["2022-06-30", 0.08], ["2022-07-01", 0.078], ["2022-07-01", 0.076], ["2022-07-01", 0.076], ["2022-07-01", 0.073], ["2022-07-02", 0.073], ["2022-07-02", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.073]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11094/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Richárd Rapport win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-03 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.13], ["2022-05-28", 0.13], ["2022-05-28", 0.133], ["2022-05-28", 0.15], ["2022-05-29", 0.143], ["2022-05-29", 0.186], ["2022-05-31", 0.186], ["2022-05-31", 0.132], ["2022-05-31", 0.133], ["2022-05-31", 0.133], ["2022-06-01", 0.122], ["2022-06-01", 0.122], ["2022-06-01", 0.124], ["2022-06-07", 0.133], ["2022-06-07", 0.126], ["2022-06-09", 0.126], ["2022-06-09", 0.134], ["2022-06-11", 0.135], ["2022-06-11", 0.137], ["2022-06-12", 0.175], ["2022-06-12", 0.175], ["2022-06-12", 0.175], ["2022-06-14", 0.177], ["2022-06-14", 0.177], ["2022-06-14", 0.177], ["2022-06-14", 0.179], ["2022-06-17", 0.18], ["2022-06-17", 0.178], ["2022-06-18", 0.178], ["2022-06-18", 0.179], ["2022-06-18", 0.174], ["2022-06-18", 0.175], ["2022-06-18", 0.18], ["2022-06-19", 0.181], ["2022-06-19", 0.193], ["2022-06-19", 0.196], ["2022-06-19", 0.192], ["2022-06-20", 0.192], ["2022-06-20", 0.193], ["2022-06-20", 0.193], ["2022-06-21", 0.187], ["2022-06-21", 0.181], ["2022-06-21", 0.185], ["2022-06-21", 0.182], ["2022-06-21", 0.182], ["2022-06-22", 0.181], ["2022-06-22", 0.181], ["2022-06-23", 0.178], ["2022-06-23", 0.179], ["2022-06-23", 0.179], ["2022-06-23", 0.175], ["2022-06-23", 0.175], ["2022-06-23", 0.173], ["2022-06-23", 0.168], ["2022-06-24", 0.169], ["2022-06-25", 0.169], ["2022-06-25", 0.169], ["2022-06-25", 0.174], ["2022-06-25", 0.159], ["2022-06-25", 0.159], ["2022-06-25", 0.166], ["2022-06-25", 0.166], ["2022-06-26", 0.163], ["2022-06-26", 0.163], ["2022-06-26", 0.171], ["2022-06-26", 0.17], ["2022-06-26", 0.17], ["2022-06-27", 0.171], ["2022-06-27", 0.171], ["2022-06-27", 0.173], ["2022-06-27", 0.175], ["2022-06-27", 0.168], ["2022-06-28", 0.164], ["2022-06-28", 0.164], ["2022-06-29", 0.164], ["2022-06-29", 0.153], ["2022-06-29", 0.154], ["2022-06-29", 0.154], ["2022-06-29", 0.153], ["2022-06-29", 0.154], ["2022-06-29", 0.15], ["2022-06-29", 0.15], ["2022-06-30", 0.152], ["2022-06-30", 0.15], ["2022-06-30", 0.141], ["2022-06-30", 0.141], ["2022-06-30", 0.14], ["2022-06-30", 0.139], ["2022-06-30", 0.144], ["2022-07-01", 0.136], ["2022-07-01", 0.136], ["2022-07-01", 0.133], ["2022-07-01", 0.133], ["2022-07-01", 0.132], ["2022-07-01", 0.132], ["2022-07-01", 0.133], ["2022-07-01", 0.131], ["2022-07-02", 0.126], ["2022-07-02", 0.126], ["2022-07-02", 0.123], ["2022-07-02", 0.119]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11095/ | The 2022 Candidates Tournament is held every 2 years among the world's top rated chess players. It is named the "Candidates" Tournament as the 8 players compete to win the spot to challenge the title holder in the Chess World Championship in the following year.
The winner of the 2022 Candidates will win the spot to play against Magnus Carlsen, top FIDE-ranked chess player and 5-time World Champion. Carlsen has, however, said "If someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match". FIDE has not made an official statement on the regulations of the 2023 World Championship, but they stated in 2020:
"2. 2. If the World Champion or the Challenger withdraws for any reason, he is replaced by the runner-up of the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2020." | Sports | This question will resolve Yes for the player who wins the 2022 Candidates Tournament, according to FIDE, and No for all other players | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Ding Liren win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-05 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-27", 0.37], ["2022-05-27", 0.37], ["2022-05-28", 0.5], ["2022-05-28", 0.337], ["2022-05-28", 0.337], ["2022-05-30", 0.326], ["2022-05-30", 0.326], ["2022-05-30", 0.352], ["2022-05-30", 0.343], ["2022-05-30", 0.347], ["2022-05-30", 0.343], ["2022-05-30", 0.343], ["2022-05-30", 0.347], ["2022-05-30", 0.377], ["2022-05-30", 0.464], ["2022-05-30", 0.4], ["2022-05-30", 0.377], ["2022-05-30", 0.367], ["2022-05-30", 0.384], ["2022-05-30", 0.397], ["2022-05-30", 0.407], ["2022-05-31", 0.397], ["2022-05-31", 0.378], ["2022-05-31", 0.376], ["2022-05-31", 0.376], ["2022-05-31", 0.376], ["2022-05-31", 0.376], ["2022-05-31", 0.388], ["2022-05-31", 0.408], ["2022-05-31", 0.388], ["2022-06-01", 0.412], ["2022-06-01", 0.397], ["2022-06-01", 0.401], ["2022-06-01", 0.401], ["2022-06-01", 0.402], ["2022-06-02", 0.429], ["2022-06-02", 0.416], ["2022-06-02", 0.416], ["2022-06-02", 0.416], ["2022-06-03", 0.421], ["2022-06-03", 0.421], ["2022-06-03", 0.421], ["2022-06-03", 0.42], ["2022-06-03", 0.42], ["2022-06-04", 0.435], ["2022-06-04", 0.443], ["2022-06-04", 0.447], ["2022-06-04", 0.447]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11100/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Everyone loves Keynesian Beauty Contests. To commemorate our new Question Group feature, here's one that would have been hard to do without it.
On 2022-06-05, at a quantum-randomly chosen time, for each of the three options below, I'll extract the interquartile range of the unweighted distribution of forecasts. Then:
The option with the highest interquartile range will resolve positive.
The option with the lowest interquartile range will resolve ambiguous.
The remaining option will resolve negative.
If any two options have the same interquartile range, I'll throw a coin for each option to decide whether it resolves positive or negative. I'll also do another much worse KBC much sooner than I would otherwise have. | true | 2022-06-05 | Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best) | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-05 | 2022-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-27", 0.5], ["2022-05-27", 0.37], ["2022-05-27", 0.5], ["2022-05-28", 0.5], ["2022-05-28", 0.5], ["2022-05-28", 0.282], ["2022-05-28", 0.282], ["2022-05-30", 0.236], ["2022-05-30", 0.234], ["2022-05-30", 0.234], ["2022-05-30", 0.26], ["2022-05-30", 0.26], ["2022-05-30", 0.267], ["2022-05-30", 0.297], ["2022-05-30", 0.329], ["2022-05-30", 0.329], ["2022-05-30", 0.341], ["2022-05-30", 0.36], ["2022-05-30", 0.373], ["2022-05-30", 0.373], ["2022-05-30", 0.373], ["2022-05-30", 0.389], ["2022-05-30", 0.389], ["2022-05-30", 0.401], ["2022-05-30", 0.411], ["2022-05-31", 0.401], ["2022-05-31", 0.432], ["2022-05-31", 0.432], ["2022-05-31", 0.432], ["2022-05-31", 0.432], ["2022-05-31", 0.434], ["2022-06-01", 0.434], ["2022-06-01", 0.442], ["2022-06-01", 0.448], ["2022-06-01", 0.449], ["2022-06-01", 0.474], ["2022-06-01", 0.449], ["2022-06-01", 0.449], ["2022-06-01", 0.471], ["2022-06-01", 0.471], ["2022-06-02", 0.485], ["2022-06-02", 0.485], ["2022-06-02", 0.485], ["2022-06-02", 0.484], ["2022-06-02", 0.483], ["2022-06-03", 0.494], ["2022-06-03", 0.494], ["2022-06-03", 0.497], ["2022-06-03", 0.502], ["2022-06-03", 0.502], ["2022-06-04", 0.495], ["2022-06-04", 0.498], ["2022-06-04", 0.518]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11101/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Everyone loves Keynesian Beauty Contests. To commemorate our new Question Group feature, here's one that would have been hard to do without it.
On 2022-06-05, at a quantum-randomly chosen time, for each of the three options below, I'll extract the interquartile range of the unweighted distribution of forecasts. Then:
The option with the highest interquartile range will resolve positive.
The option with the lowest interquartile range will resolve ambiguous.
The remaining option will resolve negative.
If any two options have the same interquartile range, I'll throw a coin for each option to decide whether it resolves positive or negative. I'll also do another much worse KBC much sooner than I would otherwise have. | true | 2022-06-05 | Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best) | metaculus | 1 |
2022-11-22 | 2022-05-25 | ["https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/summary", "https://sos.ga.gov/news/raffensperger-certifies-november-general-election-results", "https://sos.ga.gov/news/raffensperger-certifies-november-general-election-results", "https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/summary", "https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/summary", "https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/summary", "https://www.axios.com/2022/11/09/abrams-kemp-georgia-governor-election-concession", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/24/stacey-abrams-fair-fight-action-00061348", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/georgia/", "https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1570112785769721857", "https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1569756734671003648", "https://electionbettingodds.com/GovernorsMap2022.html", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1554195811520610304", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22090377/ga-gov-kemp-1st-general-election-memo-v2-1.pdf", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/georgia/"] | binary | [["2022-05-27", 0.25], ["2022-05-28", 0.292], ["2022-05-29", 0.298], ["2022-05-31", 0.296], ["2022-06-01", 0.293], ["2022-06-03", 0.289], ["2022-06-04", 0.294], ["2022-06-05", 0.292], ["2022-06-06", 0.292], ["2022-06-08", 0.291], ["2022-06-09", 0.293], ["2022-06-11", 0.303], ["2022-06-12", 0.315], ["2022-06-14", 0.308], ["2022-06-16", 0.308], ["2022-06-17", 0.304], ["2022-06-18", 0.304], ["2022-06-19", 0.303], ["2022-06-21", 0.303], ["2022-06-24", 0.303], ["2022-06-24", 0.303], ["2022-06-28", 0.302], ["2022-06-29", 0.305], ["2022-07-01", 0.307], ["2022-07-02", 0.305], ["2022-07-04", 0.305], ["2022-07-05", 0.302], ["2022-07-06", 0.302], ["2022-07-08", 0.298], ["2022-07-10", 0.296], ["2022-07-11", 0.295], ["2022-07-12", 0.296], ["2022-07-15", 0.296], ["2022-07-16", 0.268], ["2022-07-17", 0.265], ["2022-07-18", 0.263], ["2022-07-19", 0.261], ["2022-07-21", 0.261], ["2022-07-22", 0.253], ["2022-07-23", 0.252], ["2022-07-25", 0.252], ["2022-07-26", 0.251], ["2022-07-28", 0.249], ["2022-07-31", 0.249], ["2022-08-01", 0.248], ["2022-08-03", 0.225], ["2022-08-04", 0.225], ["2022-08-05", 0.225], ["2022-08-07", 0.225], ["2022-08-10", 0.224], ["2022-08-12", 0.225], ["2022-08-14", 0.225], ["2022-08-15", 0.225], ["2022-08-18", 0.225], ["2022-08-18", 0.221], ["2022-08-20", 0.221], ["2022-08-22", 0.22], ["2022-08-23", 0.219], ["2022-08-25", 0.219], ["2022-08-28", 0.218], ["2022-08-31", 0.218], ["2022-09-01", 0.218], ["2022-09-05", 0.218], ["2022-09-06", 0.217], ["2022-09-08", 0.215], ["2022-09-13", 0.215], ["2022-09-15", 0.219], ["2022-09-17", 0.22], ["2022-09-19", 0.218], ["2022-09-21", 0.216], ["2022-09-24", 0.216], ["2022-09-25", 0.215], ["2022-09-27", 0.213], ["2022-09-28", 0.213], ["2022-09-30", 0.21], ["2022-10-02", 0.209], ["2022-10-03", 0.209], ["2022-10-05", 0.206], ["2022-10-07", 0.206], ["2022-10-07", 0.206], ["2022-10-09", 0.209], ["2022-10-09", 0.209], ["2022-10-11", 0.209], ["2022-10-12", 0.207], ["2022-10-14", 0.205], ["2022-10-15", 0.204], ["2022-10-16", 0.204], ["2022-10-17", 0.204], ["2022-10-18", 0.201], ["2022-10-20", 0.2], ["2022-10-21", 0.196], ["2022-10-23", 0.194], ["2022-10-24", 0.166], ["2022-10-26", 0.157], ["2022-10-27", 0.153], ["2022-10-29", 0.153], ["2022-10-31", 0.152], ["2022-11-02", 0.152], ["2022-11-04", 0.151], ["2022-11-06", 0.151], ["2022-11-07", 0.123]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11105/ | Stacey Yvonne Abrams, born December 9, 1973, is an American politician, lawyer, voting rights activist, and author who served in the Georgia House of Representatives from 2007 to 2017, serving as minority leader from 2011 to 2017. Abrams is a member of the Democratic Party.
Abrams was the Democratic nominee in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, becoming the first African-American female major-party gubernatorial nominee in the United States. She lost the election to Republican candidate Brian Kemp, but refused to concede, accusing Kemp of engaging in voter suppression as Georgia Secretary of State.
In May 2022, Abrams was re-nominated, unopposed, by the Democratic Party to be their candidate in the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. Kemp was also re-nominated by the Republican Party, and the two will now face each other in a rematch election on November 8, 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if prior to January 20, 2023, Stacey Abrams is officially declared the winner of the November 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election, according to official certified results, as announced by or on the behalf of the Georgia Secretary of State. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-05-25 | ["https://www.npr.org/2022/11/08/1134158963/california-election-governor-results-gavin-newsom-dahle"] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.9], ["2022-05-29", 0.9], ["2022-05-30", 0.78], ["2022-06-01", 0.755], ["2022-06-02", 0.745], ["2022-06-03", 0.67], ["2022-06-04", 0.67], ["2022-06-06", 0.691], ["2022-06-07", 0.714], ["2022-06-08", 0.724], ["2022-06-10", 0.739], ["2022-06-11", 0.835], ["2022-06-13", 0.858], ["2022-06-14", 0.858], ["2022-06-16", 0.858], ["2022-06-17", 0.865], ["2022-06-20", 0.865], ["2022-06-21", 0.866], ["2022-06-22", 0.877], ["2022-06-22", 0.875], ["2022-06-24", 0.881], ["2022-06-24", 0.881], ["2022-06-28", 0.881], ["2022-06-30", 0.881], ["2022-07-02", 0.884], ["2022-07-04", 0.886], ["2022-07-05", 0.884], ["2022-07-06", 0.884], ["2022-07-08", 0.884], ["2022-07-09", 0.886], ["2022-07-11", 0.888], ["2022-07-12", 0.888], ["2022-07-15", 0.889], ["2022-07-16", 0.891], ["2022-07-18", 0.893], ["2022-07-19", 0.893], ["2022-07-20", 0.893], ["2022-07-21", 0.895], ["2022-07-21", 0.896], ["2022-07-23", 0.898], ["2022-07-23", 0.885], ["2022-07-25", 0.887], ["2022-07-26", 0.891], ["2022-07-27", 0.887], ["2022-07-29", 0.887], ["2022-07-30", 0.888], ["2022-07-31", 0.891], ["2022-08-01", 0.893], ["2022-08-02", 0.903], ["2022-08-03", 0.906], ["2022-08-04", 0.908], ["2022-08-05", 0.915], ["2022-08-06", 0.916], ["2022-08-11", 0.918], ["2022-08-15", 0.919], ["2022-08-18", 0.919], ["2022-08-23", 0.919], ["2022-08-23", 0.921], ["2022-08-31", 0.921], ["2022-08-31", 0.921], ["2022-09-05", 0.922], ["2022-09-08", 0.923], ["2022-09-09", 0.924], ["2022-09-10", 0.925], ["2022-09-11", 0.924], ["2022-09-13", 0.923], ["2022-09-15", 0.923], ["2022-09-17", 0.925], ["2022-09-20", 0.925], ["2022-09-22", 0.922], ["2022-09-25", 0.923], ["2022-09-27", 0.923], ["2022-09-28", 0.927], ["2022-09-29", 0.927], ["2022-09-30", 0.927], ["2022-10-03", 0.928], ["2022-10-04", 0.928], ["2022-10-08", 0.926], ["2022-10-09", 0.929], ["2022-10-11", 0.931], ["2022-10-13", 0.931], ["2022-10-16", 0.931], ["2022-10-17", 0.93], ["2022-10-18", 0.931], ["2022-10-20", 0.931], ["2022-10-20", 0.932], ["2022-10-22", 0.933], ["2022-10-23", 0.932], ["2022-10-25", 0.934], ["2022-10-26", 0.932], ["2022-10-27", 0.932], ["2022-10-29", 0.929], ["2022-10-30", 0.93], ["2022-11-01", 0.931], ["2022-11-01", 0.931], ["2022-11-02", 0.931], ["2022-11-04", 0.931], ["2022-11-05", 0.932], ["2022-11-06", 0.932], ["2022-11-07", 0.944], ["2022-11-07", 0.945]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11111/ | Gavin Newsom was elected governor of California in 2018 with 61.9% of the vote. He was sworn in January 7th 2019. During his tenure as governor, there were several attempts to recall him, culminating in a recall election in 2021. Governor Newsom won the election with 61.88% of voters voting in favor of him to remain in office. In 2022 he is up for reelection again, this time as part of the standard election cycle. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if Gavin Newsom, the current governor of California, is re-elected to the position during the 2022 California gubernatorial election. If he loses, or drops out before an election takes place, this question will resolve as No. If a gubernatorial election does not take place in California in 2022, this question will resolve as *Ambiguous. | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-08-24 | 2022-05-29 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/23/us/elections/results-new-york-us-house-district-10.html", "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/decision-2022/new-york-primary-election-2022-see-the-latest-results/3836179/", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/23/us/elections/results-new-york-us-house-district-10.html", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1562245263464337408", "https://www.wnyc.org/story/ny10s-many-candidates/)", "https://www.wnyc.org/story/ny10s-many-candidates/", "https://www.wnyc.org/story/ny10s-many-candidates/", "https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2022/07/endorsements-new-yorks-10th-congressional-district/374474/", "https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2022/07/rivera-niou-goldman-form-top-tier-new-10th-congressional-district-poll/374225/", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7927/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-NY-10-House-election", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7927/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-NY-10-House-election#comment-5909753495", "https://www.wnyc.org/story/why-endorsements-may-pack-bigger-punch-nys-crowded-10th-congressional-district-race", "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/one-candidate-in-nycs-10th-congressional-district-race-just-got-a-big-endorsement/3764061/", "https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/11452-candidates-ny-10-brooklyn-political-clubs-forum", "https://tribecacitizen.com/2022/06/16/an-update-on-the-race-for-the-10th-congressional-district/comment-page-1/)", "https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NY10&src=typed_query", "https://twitter.com/JCColtin/status/1546934479125708800", "https://twitter.com/realdennysalas/status/1546967730334597120", "https://twitter.com/Mezikenyc/status/1546962794096087042", "https://twitter.com/Bobby4Brooklyn/status/1545086789978935296", "https://twitter.com/dylanlyons91/status/1546652327955742720", "https://twitter.com/SoBendito/status/1546486102680281089", "https://twitter.com/AnthonyMEmerson/status/1546837061843525636", "https://ballotpedia.org/Elizabeth_Kim_(New_York)", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-judge-approves-congressional-map-throwing-democrats-into-disarray-2022-05-21/"] | binary | [["2022-06-01", 0.01], ["2022-06-01", 0.022], ["2022-06-02", 0.184], ["2022-06-02", 0.184], ["2022-06-02", 0.2], ["2022-06-03", 0.189], ["2022-06-03", 0.189], ["2022-06-06", 0.184], ["2022-06-06", 0.181], ["2022-06-07", 0.176], ["2022-06-07", 0.173], ["2022-06-09", 0.171], ["2022-06-09", 0.177], ["2022-06-10", 0.168], ["2022-06-11", 0.169], ["2022-06-12", 0.187], ["2022-06-12", 0.187], ["2022-06-12", 0.188], ["2022-06-13", 0.188], ["2022-06-14", 0.188], ["2022-06-14", 0.188], ["2022-06-14", 0.186], ["2022-06-17", 0.185], ["2022-06-17", 0.185], ["2022-06-19", 0.185], ["2022-06-21", 0.18], ["2022-06-25", 0.181], ["2022-06-25", 0.181], ["2022-06-28", 0.177], ["2022-06-28", 0.174], ["2022-06-29", 0.174], ["2022-06-29", 0.17], ["2022-06-30", 0.167], ["2022-07-01", 0.167], ["2022-07-02", 0.166], ["2022-07-04", 0.166], ["2022-07-04", 0.165], ["2022-07-04", 0.163], ["2022-07-05", 0.165], ["2022-07-06", 0.165], ["2022-07-06", 0.169], ["2022-07-08", 0.169], ["2022-07-08", 0.169], ["2022-07-10", 0.169], ["2022-07-10", 0.163], ["2022-07-10", 0.16], ["2022-07-11", 0.157], ["2022-07-11", 0.155], ["2022-07-12", 0.152], ["2022-07-13", 0.152], ["2022-07-13", 0.151], ["2022-07-13", 0.143], ["2022-07-14", 0.141], ["2022-07-14", 0.139], ["2022-07-14", 0.135], ["2022-07-15", 0.131], ["2022-07-15", 0.13], ["2022-07-16", 0.13], ["2022-07-17", 0.128], ["2022-07-20", 0.127], ["2022-07-22", 0.126], ["2022-07-22", 0.119], ["2022-07-23", 0.113], ["2022-07-23", 0.108], ["2022-07-24", 0.107], ["2022-07-24", 0.105], ["2022-07-25", 0.102], ["2022-07-25", 0.1], ["2022-07-25", 0.099], ["2022-07-26", 0.099], ["2022-07-26", 0.095], ["2022-07-27", 0.095], ["2022-07-27", 0.1], ["2022-07-28", 0.099], ["2022-07-30", 0.098], ["2022-07-31", 0.096], ["2022-08-02", 0.092], ["2022-08-02", 0.092], ["2022-08-03", 0.089], ["2022-08-05", 0.089], ["2022-08-06", 0.089], ["2022-08-06", 0.087], ["2022-08-09", 0.087], ["2022-08-10", 0.09], ["2022-08-11", 0.09], ["2022-08-11", 0.086], ["2022-08-12", 0.085], ["2022-08-13", 0.084], ["2022-08-14", 0.083], ["2022-08-15", 0.082], ["2022-08-15", 0.081], ["2022-08-16", 0.079], ["2022-08-17", 0.079], ["2022-08-18", 0.079], ["2022-08-19", 0.079], ["2022-08-19", 0.077], ["2022-08-21", 0.076], ["2022-08-21", 0.075], ["2022-08-21", 0.08], ["2022-08-22", 0.07], ["2022-08-22", 0.057]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11128/ | From Ballotpedia,
Elizabeth Kim (Democratic Party) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent New York's 10th Congressional District. She declared candidacy for the Democratic primary scheduled on August 23, 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if Elizabeth Kim is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for the 2022 election for New York's 10th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times | true | 2022-08-23 | Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-16 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.04], ["2022-05-30", 0.147], ["2022-05-30", 0.147], ["2022-05-31", 0.027], ["2022-05-31", 0.027], ["2022-06-01", 0.024], ["2022-06-02", 0.029], ["2022-06-07", 0.029], ["2022-06-07", 0.026], ["2022-06-12", 0.026], ["2022-06-12", 0.087], ["2022-06-14", 0.087], ["2022-06-14", 0.092], ["2022-06-14", 0.092], ["2022-06-18", 0.094], ["2022-06-21", 0.094], ["2022-06-25", 0.094], ["2022-06-25", 0.088], ["2022-06-28", 0.088], ["2022-06-30", 0.091], ["2022-07-02", 0.091], ["2022-07-02", 0.108], ["2022-07-04", 0.108], ["2022-07-04", 0.109], ["2022-07-05", 0.11], ["2022-07-05", 0.107], ["2022-07-05", 0.107], ["2022-07-05", 0.111], ["2022-07-07", 0.117], ["2022-07-08", 0.115], ["2022-07-11", 0.114], ["2022-07-12", 0.114], ["2022-07-12", 0.114], ["2022-07-15", 0.109], ["2022-07-20", 0.109], ["2022-07-20", 0.109], ["2022-07-24", 0.112], ["2022-07-26", 0.112], ["2022-07-26", 0.11], ["2022-07-27", 0.11], ["2022-07-27", 0.11], ["2022-07-27", 0.11], ["2022-08-04", 0.11], ["2022-08-05", 0.115], ["2022-08-07", 0.115], ["2022-08-10", 0.116], ["2022-08-12", 0.109], ["2022-08-16", 0.109], ["2022-08-16", 0.115], ["2022-08-18", 0.115], ["2022-08-20", 0.115], ["2022-08-20", 0.116], ["2022-08-22", 0.115], ["2022-08-25", 0.11], ["2022-08-25", 0.109], ["2022-08-25", 0.107], ["2022-08-31", 0.109], ["2022-09-07", 0.109], ["2022-09-08", 0.111], ["2022-09-15", 0.117], ["2022-09-15", 0.114], ["2022-09-19", 0.116], ["2022-09-19", 0.118], ["2022-09-20", 0.119], ["2022-09-24", 0.116], ["2022-09-24", 0.116], ["2022-09-25", 0.116], ["2022-09-26", 0.114], ["2022-09-27", 0.114], ["2022-09-28", 0.105], ["2022-09-29", 0.106], ["2022-09-29", 0.104], ["2022-09-29", 0.105], ["2022-10-01", 0.107], ["2022-10-04", 0.108], ["2022-10-04", 0.115], ["2022-10-05", 0.115], ["2022-10-05", 0.12], ["2022-10-05", 0.12], ["2022-10-05", 0.121], ["2022-10-06", 0.112], ["2022-10-07", 0.112], ["2022-10-08", 0.121], ["2022-10-08", 0.12], ["2022-10-09", 0.109], ["2022-10-09", 0.109], ["2022-10-09", 0.112], ["2022-10-10", 0.112], ["2022-10-10", 0.116], ["2022-10-10", 0.116], ["2022-10-11", 0.117], ["2022-10-11", 0.116], ["2022-10-12", 0.114], ["2022-10-12", 0.112], ["2022-10-13", 0.114], ["2022-10-13", 0.119], ["2022-10-14", 0.119], ["2022-10-14", 0.118], ["2022-10-15", 0.114], ["2022-10-15", 0.112], ["2022-10-16", 0.102]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11131/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Atlanta Braves win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-05-31", 0.013], ["2022-06-01", 0.013], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-07", 0.012], ["2022-06-12", 0.041], ["2022-06-12", 0.041], ["2022-06-14", 0.043], ["2022-06-14", 0.043], ["2022-06-21", 0.043], ["2022-06-25", 0.043], ["2022-06-25", 0.059], ["2022-06-25", 0.059], ["2022-06-28", 0.057], ["2022-07-02", 0.057], ["2022-07-03", 0.057], ["2022-07-04", 0.059], ["2022-07-05", 0.056], ["2022-07-05", 0.056], ["2022-07-07", 0.054], ["2022-07-08", 0.053], ["2022-07-10", 0.053], ["2022-07-11", 0.049], ["2022-07-11", 0.047], ["2022-07-12", 0.047], ["2022-07-15", 0.047], ["2022-07-15", 0.043], ["2022-07-20", 0.043], ["2022-07-26", 0.042], ["2022-07-27", 0.042], ["2022-07-27", 0.048], ["2022-08-05", 0.048], ["2022-08-16", 0.042], ["2022-08-18", 0.042], ["2022-08-25", 0.04], ["2022-08-25", 0.04], ["2022-08-31", 0.038], ["2022-09-01", 0.037], ["2022-09-09", 0.036], ["2022-09-15", 0.036], ["2022-09-15", 0.033], ["2022-09-19", 0.033], ["2022-09-29", 0.031], ["2022-09-29", 0.03]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11132/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Miami Marlins win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-10 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.38], ["2022-05-30", 0.308], ["2022-05-30", 0.308], ["2022-05-31", 0.161], ["2022-05-31", 0.149], ["2022-06-01", 0.142], ["2022-06-02", 0.142], ["2022-06-07", 0.131], ["2022-06-07", 0.125], ["2022-06-07", 0.125], ["2022-06-11", 0.119], ["2022-06-12", 0.119], ["2022-06-12", 0.159], ["2022-06-12", 0.161], ["2022-06-12", 0.161], ["2022-06-14", 0.161], ["2022-06-18", 0.16], ["2022-06-21", 0.16], ["2022-06-24", 0.16], ["2022-06-25", 0.155], ["2022-06-25", 0.159], ["2022-06-28", 0.159], ["2022-06-30", 0.158], ["2022-06-30", 0.153], ["2022-07-02", 0.169], ["2022-07-04", 0.169], ["2022-07-05", 0.165], ["2022-07-05", 0.165], ["2022-07-05", 0.167], ["2022-07-08", 0.164], ["2022-07-11", 0.169], ["2022-07-12", 0.169], ["2022-07-12", 0.17], ["2022-07-14", 0.171], ["2022-07-15", 0.171], ["2022-07-15", 0.164], ["2022-07-16", 0.167], ["2022-07-20", 0.167], ["2022-07-27", 0.167], ["2022-07-27", 0.167], ["2022-07-27", 0.164], ["2022-07-28", 0.164], ["2022-08-01", 0.164], ["2022-08-01", 0.164], ["2022-08-04", 0.164], ["2022-08-05", 0.166], ["2022-08-05", 0.166], ["2022-08-09", 0.163], ["2022-08-10", 0.164], ["2022-08-12", 0.17], ["2022-08-15", 0.17], ["2022-08-16", 0.171], ["2022-08-18", 0.173], ["2022-08-20", 0.177], ["2022-08-20", 0.176], ["2022-08-21", 0.176], ["2022-08-22", 0.178], ["2022-08-25", 0.182], ["2022-08-25", 0.178], ["2022-08-25", 0.175], ["2022-08-27", 0.178], ["2022-08-27", 0.178], ["2022-08-28", 0.177], ["2022-08-31", 0.167], ["2022-09-01", 0.166], ["2022-09-03", 0.166], ["2022-09-07", 0.165], ["2022-09-07", 0.164], ["2022-09-08", 0.18], ["2022-09-15", 0.17], ["2022-09-15", 0.17], ["2022-09-15", 0.17], ["2022-09-19", 0.168], ["2022-09-19", 0.161], ["2022-09-24", 0.162], ["2022-09-25", 0.162], ["2022-09-26", 0.16], ["2022-09-27", 0.161], ["2022-09-28", 0.161], ["2022-09-29", 0.16], ["2022-09-29", 0.162], ["2022-09-29", 0.162], ["2022-09-29", 0.16], ["2022-10-01", 0.157], ["2022-10-02", 0.157], ["2022-10-04", 0.153], ["2022-10-04", 0.15], ["2022-10-05", 0.149], ["2022-10-05", 0.154], ["2022-10-05", 0.154], ["2022-10-05", 0.151], ["2022-10-05", 0.148], ["2022-10-06", 0.145], ["2022-10-07", 0.145], ["2022-10-08", 0.144], ["2022-10-08", 0.143], ["2022-10-09", 0.135], ["2022-10-09", 0.137], ["2022-10-09", 0.135], ["2022-10-09", 0.135], ["2022-10-10", 0.133]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11133/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will New York Mets win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-05 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.02], ["2022-06-01", 0.02], ["2022-06-07", 0.02], ["2022-06-07", 0.02], ["2022-06-12", 0.073], ["2022-06-12", 0.073], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.072], ["2022-06-28", 0.072], ["2022-06-30", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.072], ["2022-07-05", 0.071], ["2022-07-05", 0.067], ["2022-07-07", 0.067], ["2022-07-10", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.061], ["2022-07-12", 0.061], ["2022-07-15", 0.057], ["2022-07-15", 0.056], ["2022-07-20", 0.056], ["2022-07-21", 0.056], ["2022-07-26", 0.056], ["2022-07-27", 0.055], ["2022-07-27", 0.061], ["2022-08-04", 0.061], ["2022-08-04", 0.057], ["2022-08-05", 0.116], ["2022-08-09", 0.116], ["2022-08-10", 0.118], ["2022-08-10", 0.119], ["2022-08-16", 0.085], ["2022-08-16", 0.084], ["2022-08-17", 0.084], ["2022-08-18", 0.056], ["2022-08-18", 0.056], ["2022-08-20", 0.057], ["2022-08-20", 0.057], ["2022-08-25", 0.054], ["2022-08-25", 0.052], ["2022-08-31", 0.052], ["2022-08-31", 0.051], ["2022-09-15", 0.051], ["2022-09-15", 0.072], ["2022-09-19", 0.069], ["2022-09-19", 0.094], ["2022-09-22", 0.047], ["2022-09-24", 0.048], ["2022-09-29", 0.048], ["2022-09-29", 0.046], ["2022-09-30", 0.044], ["2022-10-03", 0.042], ["2022-10-05", 0.043], ["2022-10-06", 0.046], ["2022-10-07", 0.047], ["2022-10-08", 0.046], ["2022-10-08", 0.043], ["2022-10-09", 0.043], ["2022-10-10", 0.043], ["2022-10-11", 0.047], ["2022-10-11", 0.049], ["2022-10-12", 0.052], ["2022-10-12", 0.055], ["2022-10-13", 0.055], ["2022-10-14", 0.055], ["2022-10-14", 0.053], ["2022-10-15", 0.056], ["2022-10-15", 0.056], ["2022-10-16", 0.128], ["2022-10-17", 0.144], ["2022-10-18", 0.145], ["2022-10-18", 0.145], ["2022-10-19", 0.14], ["2022-10-19", 0.136], ["2022-10-20", 0.153], ["2022-10-21", 0.16], ["2022-10-21", 0.156], ["2022-10-22", 0.16], ["2022-10-22", 0.162], ["2022-10-23", 0.162], ["2022-10-24", 0.217], ["2022-10-24", 0.244], ["2022-10-25", 0.245], ["2022-10-26", 0.262], ["2022-10-26", 0.262], ["2022-10-27", 0.265], ["2022-10-28", 0.266], ["2022-10-29", 0.266], ["2022-10-29", 0.3], ["2022-10-30", 0.336], ["2022-10-30", 0.328], ["2022-10-31", 0.327], ["2022-11-01", 0.329], ["2022-11-02", 0.33], ["2022-11-02", 0.362], ["2022-11-03", 0.354], ["2022-11-04", 0.35], ["2022-11-04", 0.341], ["2022-11-05", 0.312], ["2022-11-05", 0.31]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11134/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.014], ["2022-05-31", 0.013], ["2022-06-01", 0.013], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-07", 0.012], ["2022-06-12", 0.081], ["2022-06-12", 0.081], ["2022-06-12", 0.085], ["2022-06-14", 0.085], ["2022-06-21", 0.085], ["2022-06-25", 0.078], ["2022-06-25", 0.077], ["2022-06-25", 0.077], ["2022-06-28", 0.073], ["2022-06-28", 0.074], ["2022-07-02", 0.074], ["2022-07-05", 0.074], ["2022-07-05", 0.069], ["2022-07-08", 0.065], ["2022-07-08", 0.065], ["2022-07-10", 0.061], ["2022-07-11", 0.061], ["2022-07-12", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-16", 0.053], ["2022-07-20", 0.053], ["2022-07-26", 0.052], ["2022-07-27", 0.052], ["2022-07-27", 0.054], ["2022-08-05", 0.054], ["2022-08-16", 0.052], ["2022-08-18", 0.052], ["2022-08-25", 0.049], ["2022-08-25", 0.049], ["2022-08-31", 0.047], ["2022-09-01", 0.047], ["2022-09-09", 0.044], ["2022-09-15", 0.044], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-19", 0.04], ["2022-09-29", 0.039], ["2022-09-29", 0.038]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11135/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Washington Nationals win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.133], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-06-01", 0.015], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.082], ["2022-06-12", 0.082], ["2022-06-14", 0.082], ["2022-06-14", 0.086], ["2022-06-21", 0.086], ["2022-06-25", 0.086], ["2022-06-25", 0.078], ["2022-06-25", 0.078], ["2022-06-28", 0.074], ["2022-06-28", 0.075], ["2022-07-02", 0.07], ["2022-07-05", 0.066], ["2022-07-05", 0.066], ["2022-07-06", 0.065], ["2022-07-11", 0.065], ["2022-07-12", 0.061], ["2022-07-15", 0.061], ["2022-07-15", 0.056], ["2022-07-20", 0.056], ["2022-07-26", 0.056], ["2022-07-27", 0.055], ["2022-07-27", 0.055], ["2022-08-04", 0.058], ["2022-08-05", 0.058], ["2022-08-16", 0.058], ["2022-08-18", 0.055], ["2022-08-25", 0.055], ["2022-08-25", 0.05], ["2022-08-31", 0.05], ["2022-09-01", 0.05], ["2022-09-09", 0.048], ["2022-09-15", 0.046], ["2022-09-15", 0.043], ["2022-09-19", 0.043], ["2022-09-29", 0.041], ["2022-09-29", 0.04]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11136/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Chicago Cubs win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-05-31", 0.028], ["2022-05-31", 0.028], ["2022-05-31", 0.013], ["2022-06-01", 0.013], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-07", 0.012], ["2022-06-12", 0.071], ["2022-06-12", 0.071], ["2022-06-12", 0.074], ["2022-06-14", 0.084], ["2022-06-14", 0.084], ["2022-06-21", 0.085], ["2022-06-22", 0.074], ["2022-06-25", 0.074], ["2022-06-25", 0.07], ["2022-06-28", 0.071], ["2022-07-02", 0.068], ["2022-07-05", 0.063], ["2022-07-05", 0.063], ["2022-07-08", 0.062], ["2022-07-10", 0.062], ["2022-07-11", 0.058], ["2022-07-12", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.053], ["2022-07-16", 0.053], ["2022-07-20", 0.052], ["2022-07-26", 0.052], ["2022-07-27", 0.051], ["2022-07-27", 0.056], ["2022-08-04", 0.055], ["2022-08-05", 0.055], ["2022-08-16", 0.057], ["2022-08-18", 0.057], ["2022-08-25", 0.048], ["2022-08-25", 0.046], ["2022-08-31", 0.046], ["2022-09-01", 0.045], ["2022-09-09", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-19", 0.038], ["2022-09-29", 0.038], ["2022-09-29", 0.037]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11137/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Cincinnati Reds win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.07], ["2022-05-30", 0.07], ["2022-05-30", 0.29], ["2022-05-30", 0.225], ["2022-05-30", 0.177], ["2022-05-30", 0.173], ["2022-05-30", 0.06], ["2022-05-31", 0.053], ["2022-05-31", 0.052], ["2022-05-31", 0.057], ["2022-05-31", 0.059], ["2022-06-01", 0.062], ["2022-06-02", 0.062], ["2022-06-02", 0.06], ["2022-06-07", 0.056], ["2022-06-07", 0.058], ["2022-06-07", 0.058], ["2022-06-12", 0.111], ["2022-06-12", 0.111], ["2022-06-12", 0.112], ["2022-06-14", 0.112], ["2022-06-18", 0.112], ["2022-06-21", 0.112], ["2022-06-25", 0.112], ["2022-06-25", 0.105], ["2022-06-25", 0.106], ["2022-06-28", 0.106], ["2022-06-30", 0.105], ["2022-07-02", 0.121], ["2022-07-04", 0.121], ["2022-07-05", 0.122], ["2022-07-05", 0.117], ["2022-07-06", 0.116], ["2022-07-07", 0.104], ["2022-07-07", 0.103], ["2022-07-11", 0.103], ["2022-07-12", 0.099], ["2022-07-14", 0.098], ["2022-07-15", 0.093], ["2022-07-15", 0.09], ["2022-07-15", 0.09], ["2022-07-20", 0.089], ["2022-07-26", 0.089], ["2022-07-26", 0.084], ["2022-07-27", 0.084], ["2022-07-27", 0.083], ["2022-07-27", 0.083], ["2022-07-28", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-01", 0.086], ["2022-08-04", 0.086], ["2022-08-05", 0.1], ["2022-08-10", 0.1], ["2022-08-12", 0.1], ["2022-08-16", 0.09], ["2022-08-18", 0.09], ["2022-08-18", 0.1], ["2022-08-20", 0.1], ["2022-08-20", 0.099], ["2022-08-20", 0.099], ["2022-08-22", 0.098], ["2022-08-25", 0.094], ["2022-08-25", 0.091], ["2022-08-25", 0.09], ["2022-08-25", 0.09], ["2022-08-28", 0.089], ["2022-08-31", 0.079], ["2022-08-31", 0.079], ["2022-08-31", 0.065], ["2022-09-15", 0.065], ["2022-09-15", 0.065], ["2022-09-15", 0.062], ["2022-09-15", 0.062], ["2022-09-15", 0.059], ["2022-09-27", 0.059], ["2022-09-29", 0.057], ["2022-09-29", 0.055]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11138/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.133], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-06-01", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.071], ["2022-06-25", 0.072], ["2022-06-28", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.069], ["2022-07-03", 0.072], ["2022-07-04", 0.072], ["2022-07-05", 0.068], ["2022-07-05", 0.068], ["2022-07-06", 0.067], ["2022-07-07", 0.068], ["2022-07-08", 0.068], ["2022-07-09", 0.065], ["2022-07-10", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.06], ["2022-07-12", 0.06], ["2022-07-15", 0.06], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-16", 0.055], ["2022-07-16", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.054], ["2022-07-26", 0.053], ["2022-07-27", 0.053], ["2022-07-27", 0.053], ["2022-07-27", 0.058], ["2022-08-04", 0.055], ["2022-08-05", 0.055], ["2022-08-16", 0.052], ["2022-08-18", 0.052], ["2022-08-25", 0.052], ["2022-08-25", 0.047], ["2022-08-31", 0.047], ["2022-09-01", 0.045], ["2022-09-09", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-29", 0.04], ["2022-09-29", 0.037]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11139/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.03], ["2022-05-30", 0.27], ["2022-05-30", 0.27], ["2022-05-30", 0.205], ["2022-05-30", 0.033], ["2022-05-31", 0.028], ["2022-05-31", 0.026], ["2022-05-31", 0.026], ["2022-05-31", 0.13], ["2022-05-31", 0.113], ["2022-05-31", 0.116], ["2022-05-31", 0.113], ["2022-05-31", 0.116], ["2022-05-31", 0.113], ["2022-05-31", 0.113], ["2022-06-01", 0.113], ["2022-06-07", 0.103], ["2022-06-07", 0.092], ["2022-06-11", 0.085], ["2022-06-11", 0.089], ["2022-06-11", 0.089], ["2022-06-12", 0.091], ["2022-06-12", 0.146], ["2022-06-12", 0.146], ["2022-06-14", 0.149], ["2022-06-21", 0.149], ["2022-06-25", 0.139], ["2022-06-25", 0.139], ["2022-06-25", 0.141], ["2022-06-28", 0.142], ["2022-06-28", 0.142], ["2022-07-02", 0.143], ["2022-07-04", 0.137], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-05", 0.13], ["2022-07-11", 0.123], ["2022-07-12", 0.123], ["2022-07-15", 0.116], ["2022-07-15", 0.113], ["2022-07-20", 0.113], ["2022-07-21", 0.11], ["2022-07-22", 0.109], ["2022-07-24", 0.109], ["2022-07-26", 0.106], ["2022-07-26", 0.105], ["2022-07-27", 0.105], ["2022-07-27", 0.111], ["2022-07-28", 0.111], ["2022-08-01", 0.11], ["2022-08-01", 0.11], ["2022-08-01", 0.109], ["2022-08-01", 0.11], ["2022-08-01", 0.11], ["2022-08-01", 0.11], ["2022-08-01", 0.11], ["2022-08-03", 0.109], ["2022-08-04", 0.109], ["2022-08-04", 0.115], ["2022-08-05", 0.154], ["2022-08-10", 0.154], ["2022-08-16", 0.154], ["2022-08-18", 0.144], ["2022-08-20", 0.145], ["2022-08-20", 0.144], ["2022-08-20", 0.144], ["2022-08-25", 0.144], ["2022-08-25", 0.131], ["2022-08-25", 0.132], ["2022-08-25", 0.132], ["2022-08-28", 0.101], ["2022-08-31", 0.101], ["2022-09-01", 0.102], ["2022-09-04", 0.151], ["2022-09-07", 0.151], ["2022-09-15", 0.151], ["2022-09-15", 0.151], ["2022-09-15", 0.145], ["2022-09-19", 0.146], ["2022-09-19", 0.146], ["2022-09-19", 0.14], ["2022-09-19", 0.14], ["2022-09-20", 0.145], ["2022-09-22", 0.096], ["2022-09-24", 0.096], ["2022-09-26", 0.095], ["2022-09-29", 0.097], ["2022-09-29", 0.097], ["2022-09-29", 0.095], ["2022-10-04", 0.091], ["2022-10-04", 0.091], ["2022-10-05", 0.091], ["2022-10-06", 0.096], ["2022-10-06", 0.094], ["2022-10-07", 0.095], ["2022-10-07", 0.095], ["2022-10-07", 0.095], ["2022-10-07", 0.093], ["2022-10-08", 0.088], ["2022-10-08", 0.088], ["2022-10-08", 0.087]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11140/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.133], ["2022-05-30", 0.133], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-06-01", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-14", 0.072], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.069], ["2022-06-25", 0.066], ["2022-06-28", 0.066], ["2022-07-02", 0.062], ["2022-07-05", 0.062], ["2022-07-05", 0.058], ["2022-07-06", 0.058], ["2022-07-11", 0.054], ["2022-07-12", 0.054], ["2022-07-15", 0.051], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.05], ["2022-07-26", 0.049], ["2022-07-27", 0.049], ["2022-07-27", 0.054], ["2022-08-04", 0.054], ["2022-08-05", 0.052], ["2022-08-16", 0.052], ["2022-08-18", 0.049], ["2022-08-25", 0.049], ["2022-08-25", 0.044], ["2022-08-31", 0.044], ["2022-09-01", 0.043], ["2022-09-09", 0.041], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-15", 0.04], ["2022-09-19", 0.038], ["2022-09-29", 0.037], ["2022-09-29", 0.036]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11141/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-06-01", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-12", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.082], ["2022-06-12", 0.086], ["2022-06-14", 0.076], ["2022-06-14", 0.076], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.069], ["2022-06-25", 0.066], ["2022-06-28", 0.066], ["2022-07-02", 0.062], ["2022-07-05", 0.058], ["2022-07-05", 0.065], ["2022-07-11", 0.061], ["2022-07-12", 0.055], ["2022-07-15", 0.052], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.056], ["2022-07-26", 0.055], ["2022-07-27", 0.049], ["2022-07-27", 0.049], ["2022-08-04", 0.052], ["2022-08-05", 0.052], ["2022-08-16", 0.049], ["2022-08-18", 0.055], ["2022-08-25", 0.052], ["2022-08-25", 0.05], ["2022-08-31", 0.05], ["2022-09-01", 0.048], ["2022-09-09", 0.048], ["2022-09-15", 0.044], ["2022-09-15", 0.043], ["2022-09-19", 0.041], ["2022-09-29", 0.041], ["2022-09-29", 0.039]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11142/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Colorado Rockies win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-16 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.33], ["2022-05-31", 0.178], ["2022-05-31", 0.245], ["2022-06-01", 0.241], ["2022-06-02", 0.237], ["2022-06-07", 0.237], ["2022-06-07", 0.215], ["2022-06-11", 0.218], ["2022-06-12", 0.258], ["2022-06-12", 0.262], ["2022-06-12", 0.262], ["2022-06-13", 0.265], ["2022-06-14", 0.27], ["2022-06-14", 0.27], ["2022-06-21", 0.27], ["2022-06-24", 0.28], ["2022-06-25", 0.281], ["2022-06-25", 0.281], ["2022-06-28", 0.286], ["2022-06-28", 0.286], ["2022-06-30", 0.285], ["2022-07-02", 0.293], ["2022-07-03", 0.296], ["2022-07-04", 0.296], ["2022-07-05", 0.289], ["2022-07-05", 0.289], ["2022-07-06", 0.301], ["2022-07-06", 0.299], ["2022-07-08", 0.293], ["2022-07-08", 0.291], ["2022-07-08", 0.288], ["2022-07-10", 0.286], ["2022-07-11", 0.284], ["2022-07-11", 0.284], ["2022-07-12", 0.285], ["2022-07-14", 0.289], ["2022-07-15", 0.282], ["2022-07-20", 0.282], ["2022-07-26", 0.283], ["2022-07-26", 0.289], ["2022-07-27", 0.289], ["2022-07-28", 0.281], ["2022-08-01", 0.283], ["2022-08-01", 0.282], ["2022-08-04", 0.282], ["2022-08-04", 0.286], ["2022-08-05", 0.286], ["2022-08-05", 0.285], ["2022-08-10", 0.285], ["2022-08-16", 0.286], ["2022-08-16", 0.288], ["2022-08-18", 0.288], ["2022-08-20", 0.29], ["2022-08-20", 0.288], ["2022-08-25", 0.29], ["2022-08-25", 0.285], ["2022-08-31", 0.285], ["2022-08-31", 0.285], ["2022-09-01", 0.286], ["2022-09-04", 0.284], ["2022-09-07", 0.284], ["2022-09-08", 0.303], ["2022-09-15", 0.284], ["2022-09-15", 0.282], ["2022-09-15", 0.287], ["2022-09-19", 0.289], ["2022-09-19", 0.284], ["2022-09-20", 0.284], ["2022-09-22", 0.284], ["2022-09-24", 0.287], ["2022-09-24", 0.284], ["2022-09-25", 0.282], ["2022-09-28", 0.279], ["2022-09-29", 0.279], ["2022-09-29", 0.282], ["2022-09-29", 0.282], ["2022-10-01", 0.286], ["2022-10-02", 0.286], ["2022-10-03", 0.286], ["2022-10-04", 0.286], ["2022-10-05", 0.292], ["2022-10-05", 0.29], ["2022-10-06", 0.291], ["2022-10-07", 0.29], ["2022-10-07", 0.295], ["2022-10-08", 0.291], ["2022-10-08", 0.29], ["2022-10-09", 0.293], ["2022-10-10", 0.295], ["2022-10-11", 0.297], ["2022-10-11", 0.298], ["2022-10-11", 0.298], ["2022-10-12", 0.3], ["2022-10-12", 0.301], ["2022-10-13", 0.3], ["2022-10-13", 0.3], ["2022-10-13", 0.304], ["2022-10-14", 0.324], ["2022-10-15", 0.303], ["2022-10-15", 0.303], ["2022-10-16", 0.296]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11143/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-23 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.06], ["2022-05-30", 0.067], ["2022-05-31", 0.055], ["2022-05-31", 0.056], ["2022-06-01", 0.055], ["2022-06-07", 0.05], ["2022-06-07", 0.05], ["2022-06-07", 0.052], ["2022-06-12", 0.102], ["2022-06-12", 0.102], ["2022-06-12", 0.102], ["2022-06-14", 0.105], ["2022-06-21", 0.105], ["2022-06-25", 0.099], ["2022-06-25", 0.097], ["2022-06-28", 0.097], ["2022-06-30", 0.097], ["2022-07-02", 0.12], ["2022-07-05", 0.12], ["2022-07-05", 0.115], ["2022-07-05", 0.116], ["2022-07-06", 0.118], ["2022-07-07", 0.096], ["2022-07-07", 0.096], ["2022-07-08", 0.105], ["2022-07-10", 0.105], ["2022-07-11", 0.103], ["2022-07-11", 0.105], ["2022-07-12", 0.105], ["2022-07-14", 0.102], ["2022-07-15", 0.099], ["2022-07-15", 0.097], ["2022-07-20", 0.097], ["2022-07-26", 0.098], ["2022-07-26", 0.098], ["2022-07-27", 0.118], ["2022-07-27", 0.085], ["2022-07-27", 0.085], ["2022-08-01", 0.093], ["2022-08-01", 0.094], ["2022-08-02", 0.095], ["2022-08-04", 0.098], ["2022-08-04", 0.098], ["2022-08-05", 0.111], ["2022-08-05", 0.108], ["2022-08-16", 0.108], ["2022-08-16", 0.092], ["2022-08-18", 0.092], ["2022-08-18", 0.108], ["2022-08-20", 0.109], ["2022-08-20", 0.107], ["2022-08-25", 0.113], ["2022-08-25", 0.113], ["2022-08-25", 0.11], ["2022-08-25", 0.109], ["2022-08-28", 0.109], ["2022-08-31", 0.091], ["2022-09-01", 0.091], ["2022-09-04", 0.084], ["2022-09-05", 0.084], ["2022-09-15", 0.082], ["2022-09-15", 0.082], ["2022-09-19", 0.077], ["2022-09-29", 0.078], ["2022-09-29", 0.075], ["2022-10-05", 0.075], ["2022-10-05", 0.073], ["2022-10-05", 0.073], ["2022-10-06", 0.075], ["2022-10-07", 0.072], ["2022-10-08", 0.069], ["2022-10-08", 0.069], ["2022-10-10", 0.073], ["2022-10-10", 0.075], ["2022-10-10", 0.074], ["2022-10-11", 0.074], ["2022-10-12", 0.077], ["2022-10-12", 0.077], ["2022-10-13", 0.075], ["2022-10-14", 0.076], ["2022-10-15", 0.09], ["2022-10-15", 0.093], ["2022-10-15", 0.093], ["2022-10-16", 0.092], ["2022-10-16", 0.126], ["2022-10-16", 0.131], ["2022-10-17", 0.142], ["2022-10-17", 0.147], ["2022-10-18", 0.148], ["2022-10-18", 0.127], ["2022-10-19", 0.126], ["2022-10-19", 0.123], ["2022-10-19", 0.129], ["2022-10-20", 0.133], ["2022-10-20", 0.139], ["2022-10-20", 0.141], ["2022-10-21", 0.141], ["2022-10-21", 0.145], ["2022-10-22", 0.143], ["2022-10-23", 0.143], ["2022-10-23", 0.133]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11144/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will San Diego Padres win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.27], ["2022-05-30", 0.205], ["2022-05-30", 0.205], ["2022-05-30", 0.037], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.028], ["2022-05-31", 0.028], ["2022-06-01", 0.031], ["2022-06-07", 0.029], ["2022-06-07", 0.029], ["2022-06-07", 0.029], ["2022-06-12", 0.031], ["2022-06-12", 0.092], ["2022-06-14", 0.095], ["2022-06-14", 0.095], ["2022-06-14", 0.095], ["2022-06-21", 0.095], ["2022-06-25", 0.095], ["2022-06-28", 0.091], ["2022-07-02", 0.087], ["2022-07-05", 0.087], ["2022-07-05", 0.083], ["2022-07-06", 0.083], ["2022-07-11", 0.078], ["2022-07-12", 0.078], ["2022-07-12", 0.078], ["2022-07-14", 0.077], ["2022-07-15", 0.077], ["2022-07-15", 0.073], ["2022-07-20", 0.07], ["2022-07-26", 0.069], ["2022-07-26", 0.069], ["2022-07-27", 0.07], ["2022-07-27", 0.07], ["2022-07-27", 0.069], ["2022-08-01", 0.069], ["2022-08-01", 0.069], ["2022-08-01", 0.068], ["2022-08-01", 0.068], ["2022-08-01", 0.068], ["2022-08-01", 0.069], ["2022-08-05", 0.069], ["2022-08-16", 0.128], ["2022-08-18", 0.128], ["2022-08-18", 0.066], ["2022-08-20", 0.066], ["2022-08-25", 0.063], ["2022-08-25", 0.061], ["2022-08-31", 0.061], ["2022-09-01", 0.059], ["2022-09-09", 0.059], ["2022-09-15", 0.055], ["2022-09-15", 0.053], ["2022-09-15", 0.051], ["2022-09-15", 0.05], ["2022-09-19", 0.05], ["2022-09-27", 0.048], ["2022-09-28", 0.048], ["2022-09-29", 0.046], ["2022-09-29", 0.045]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11145/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will San Francisco Giants win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-06-01", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.075], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.071], ["2022-06-25", 0.072], ["2022-06-28", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.072], ["2022-07-03", 0.074], ["2022-07-04", 0.075], ["2022-07-05", 0.075], ["2022-07-05", 0.07], ["2022-07-07", 0.071], ["2022-07-08", 0.066], ["2022-07-09", 0.065], ["2022-07-10", 0.065], ["2022-07-11", 0.059], ["2022-07-12", 0.059], ["2022-07-15", 0.056], ["2022-07-15", 0.054], ["2022-07-20", 0.054], ["2022-07-26", 0.053], ["2022-07-27", 0.053], ["2022-07-27", 0.052], ["2022-07-27", 0.058], ["2022-08-04", 0.055], ["2022-08-05", 0.055], ["2022-08-12", 0.117], ["2022-08-18", 0.117], ["2022-08-25", 0.052], ["2022-08-25", 0.052], ["2022-08-25", 0.049], ["2022-08-31", 0.047], ["2022-09-12", 0.047], ["2022-09-15", 0.045], ["2022-09-15", 0.045], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-25", 0.043], ["2022-09-26", 0.041], ["2022-09-29", 0.04], ["2022-09-29", 0.038]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11146/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-30", 0.2], ["2022-05-30", 0.14], ["2022-05-30", 0.027], ["2022-05-31", 0.022], ["2022-05-31", 0.022], ["2022-05-31", 0.022], ["2022-05-31", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.022], ["2022-05-31", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.022], ["2022-05-31", 0.022], ["2022-05-31", 0.02], ["2022-06-01", 0.02], ["2022-06-07", 0.02], ["2022-06-07", 0.019], ["2022-06-12", 0.087], ["2022-06-12", 0.087], ["2022-06-12", 0.09], ["2022-06-12", 0.09], ["2022-06-14", 0.091], ["2022-06-21", 0.091], ["2022-06-25", 0.085], ["2022-06-28", 0.085], ["2022-06-30", 0.086], ["2022-07-02", 0.086], ["2022-07-05", 0.078], ["2022-07-05", 0.078], ["2022-07-06", 0.078], ["2022-07-11", 0.073], ["2022-07-12", 0.073], ["2022-07-14", 0.072], ["2022-07-15", 0.068], ["2022-07-15", 0.066], ["2022-07-20", 0.066], ["2022-07-26", 0.065], ["2022-07-26", 0.123], ["2022-07-27", 0.123], ["2022-07-28", 0.122], ["2022-08-01", 0.122], ["2022-08-01", 0.122], ["2022-08-01", 0.121], ["2022-08-01", 0.122], ["2022-08-01", 0.122], ["2022-08-03", 0.121], ["2022-08-04", 0.12], ["2022-08-05", 0.107], ["2022-08-12", 0.08], ["2022-08-18", 0.08], ["2022-08-18", 0.061], ["2022-08-20", 0.06], ["2022-08-25", 0.06], ["2022-08-25", 0.054], ["2022-08-31", 0.054], ["2022-09-09", 0.052], ["2022-09-12", 0.05], ["2022-09-15", 0.05], ["2022-09-15", 0.047], ["2022-09-15", 0.047], ["2022-09-19", 0.044], ["2022-09-29", 0.042], ["2022-09-29", 0.041]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11147/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Boston Red Sox win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-24 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.11], ["2022-05-31", 0.128], ["2022-06-01", 0.118], ["2022-06-02", 0.119], ["2022-06-02", 0.216], ["2022-06-07", 0.201], ["2022-06-07", 0.193], ["2022-06-11", 0.2], ["2022-06-11", 0.201], ["2022-06-12", 0.243], ["2022-06-12", 0.246], ["2022-06-14", 0.249], ["2022-06-21", 0.249], ["2022-06-22", 0.277], ["2022-06-23", 0.287], ["2022-06-24", 0.297], ["2022-06-25", 0.298], ["2022-06-26", 0.303], ["2022-06-28", 0.304], ["2022-06-28", 0.308], ["2022-06-30", 0.308], ["2022-07-01", 0.303], ["2022-07-02", 0.309], ["2022-07-04", 0.308], ["2022-07-05", 0.302], ["2022-07-05", 0.302], ["2022-07-06", 0.311], ["2022-07-07", 0.311], ["2022-07-08", 0.32], ["2022-07-08", 0.32], ["2022-07-10", 0.322], ["2022-07-11", 0.316], ["2022-07-12", 0.316], ["2022-07-12", 0.317], ["2022-07-14", 0.316], ["2022-07-15", 0.309], ["2022-07-20", 0.309], ["2022-07-26", 0.31], ["2022-07-26", 0.306], ["2022-07-27", 0.306], ["2022-07-28", 0.298], ["2022-07-28", 0.298], ["2022-08-04", 0.299], ["2022-08-05", 0.299], ["2022-08-10", 0.299], ["2022-08-12", 0.298], ["2022-08-16", 0.294], ["2022-08-18", 0.294], ["2022-08-20", 0.294], ["2022-08-20", 0.293], ["2022-08-25", 0.293], ["2022-08-25", 0.288], ["2022-08-25", 0.286], ["2022-08-28", 0.287], ["2022-08-31", 0.287], ["2022-08-31", 0.287], ["2022-09-01", 0.286], ["2022-09-02", 0.284], ["2022-09-04", 0.282], ["2022-09-07", 0.281], ["2022-09-08", 0.281], ["2022-09-08", 0.297], ["2022-09-10", 0.291], ["2022-09-15", 0.283], ["2022-09-15", 0.28], ["2022-09-19", 0.276], ["2022-09-22", 0.273], ["2022-09-24", 0.274], ["2022-09-24", 0.272], ["2022-09-25", 0.272], ["2022-09-27", 0.269], ["2022-09-28", 0.269], ["2022-09-29", 0.275], ["2022-10-01", 0.275], ["2022-10-02", 0.275], ["2022-10-04", 0.273], ["2022-10-05", 0.277], ["2022-10-06", 0.273], ["2022-10-07", 0.275], ["2022-10-08", 0.268], ["2022-10-08", 0.268], ["2022-10-09", 0.269], ["2022-10-10", 0.267], ["2022-10-11", 0.267], ["2022-10-11", 0.267], ["2022-10-12", 0.268], ["2022-10-13", 0.266], ["2022-10-14", 0.291], ["2022-10-15", 0.275], ["2022-10-15", 0.264], ["2022-10-16", 0.266], ["2022-10-17", 0.267], ["2022-10-18", 0.264], ["2022-10-19", 0.264], ["2022-10-20", 0.27], ["2022-10-20", 0.264], ["2022-10-21", 0.253], ["2022-10-22", 0.252], ["2022-10-23", 0.24], ["2022-10-24", 0.225], ["2022-10-24", 0.195]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11148/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will New York Yankees win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.05], ["2022-05-30", 0.28], ["2022-05-30", 0.28], ["2022-05-30", 0.157], ["2022-05-30", 0.043], ["2022-05-31", 0.035], ["2022-05-31", 0.034], ["2022-05-31", 0.035], ["2022-05-31", 0.035], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.034], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.034], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.034], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.034], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.034], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.03], ["2022-05-31", 0.034], ["2022-06-01", 0.034], ["2022-06-07", 0.036], ["2022-06-07", 0.033], ["2022-06-07", 0.035], ["2022-06-12", 0.095], ["2022-06-12", 0.095], ["2022-06-14", 0.098], ["2022-06-14", 0.098], ["2022-06-14", 0.099], ["2022-06-21", 0.09], ["2022-06-25", 0.086], ["2022-06-25", 0.085], ["2022-06-28", 0.085], ["2022-06-30", 0.084], ["2022-07-02", 0.082], ["2022-07-05", 0.078], ["2022-07-05", 0.085], ["2022-07-07", 0.085], ["2022-07-08", 0.081], ["2022-07-11", 0.081], ["2022-07-12", 0.077], ["2022-07-14", 0.071], ["2022-07-15", 0.068], ["2022-07-15", 0.068], ["2022-07-20", 0.072], ["2022-07-26", 0.071], ["2022-07-27", 0.064], ["2022-07-27", 0.064], ["2022-07-27", 0.064], ["2022-07-28", 0.076], ["2022-08-01", 0.074], ["2022-08-01", 0.075], ["2022-08-01", 0.075], ["2022-08-01", 0.074], ["2022-08-04", 0.082], ["2022-08-05", 0.088], ["2022-08-12", 0.088], ["2022-08-16", 0.13], ["2022-08-18", 0.13], ["2022-08-20", 0.123], ["2022-08-25", 0.123], ["2022-08-25", 0.067], ["2022-08-25", 0.066], ["2022-08-25", 0.064], ["2022-08-25", 0.064], ["2022-08-28", 0.064], ["2022-08-31", 0.062], ["2022-09-04", 0.062], ["2022-09-07", 0.077], ["2022-09-07", 0.077], ["2022-09-08", 0.086], ["2022-09-10", 0.086], ["2022-09-15", 0.086], ["2022-09-15", 0.086], ["2022-09-15", 0.086], ["2022-09-15", 0.087], ["2022-09-19", 0.088], ["2022-09-19", 0.088], ["2022-09-22", 0.11], ["2022-09-24", 0.057], ["2022-09-27", 0.058], ["2022-09-28", 0.067], ["2022-09-29", 0.067], ["2022-09-29", 0.068], ["2022-09-29", 0.068], ["2022-09-29", 0.063], ["2022-10-01", 0.063], ["2022-10-04", 0.061], ["2022-10-04", 0.061], ["2022-10-04", 0.061], ["2022-10-05", 0.061], ["2022-10-05", 0.06], ["2022-10-06", 0.06], ["2022-10-06", 0.056], ["2022-10-07", 0.056], ["2022-10-07", 0.054], ["2022-10-08", 0.051], ["2022-10-08", 0.05]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11149/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-09 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.07], ["2022-05-30", 0.07], ["2022-05-30", 0.225], ["2022-05-30", 0.225], ["2022-05-30", 0.203], ["2022-05-30", 0.203], ["2022-05-31", 0.095], ["2022-05-31", 0.095], ["2022-05-31", 0.084], ["2022-05-31", 0.081], ["2022-06-01", 0.081], ["2022-06-02", 0.082], ["2022-06-07", 0.082], ["2022-06-07", 0.076], ["2022-06-07", 0.073], ["2022-06-12", 0.073], ["2022-06-12", 0.121], ["2022-06-12", 0.123], ["2022-06-14", 0.123], ["2022-06-18", 0.123], ["2022-06-21", 0.122], ["2022-06-24", 0.122], ["2022-06-25", 0.12], ["2022-06-28", 0.12], ["2022-06-30", 0.12], ["2022-07-02", 0.134], ["2022-07-04", 0.135], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-06", 0.129], ["2022-07-07", 0.116], ["2022-07-07", 0.116], ["2022-07-10", 0.114], ["2022-07-11", 0.114], ["2022-07-11", 0.108], ["2022-07-12", 0.108], ["2022-07-12", 0.108], ["2022-07-14", 0.109], ["2022-07-15", 0.103], ["2022-07-15", 0.103], ["2022-07-15", 0.103], ["2022-07-15", 0.103], ["2022-07-15", 0.103], ["2022-07-20", 0.101], ["2022-07-21", 0.101], ["2022-07-26", 0.096], ["2022-07-27", 0.097], ["2022-07-27", 0.097], ["2022-07-27", 0.096], ["2022-07-27", 0.103], ["2022-07-28", 0.103], ["2022-08-04", 0.104], ["2022-08-05", 0.12], ["2022-08-10", 0.12], ["2022-08-12", 0.122], ["2022-08-16", 0.122], ["2022-08-18", 0.121], ["2022-08-20", 0.123], ["2022-08-20", 0.121], ["2022-08-20", 0.121], ["2022-08-25", 0.121], ["2022-08-25", 0.115], ["2022-08-25", 0.111], ["2022-08-25", 0.112], ["2022-08-25", 0.111], ["2022-08-28", 0.095], ["2022-08-31", 0.095], ["2022-09-08", 0.107], ["2022-09-15", 0.107], ["2022-09-15", 0.105], ["2022-09-19", 0.102], ["2022-09-19", 0.103], ["2022-09-20", 0.108], ["2022-09-22", 0.112], ["2022-09-24", 0.111], ["2022-09-24", 0.111], ["2022-09-25", 0.11], ["2022-09-27", 0.111], ["2022-09-28", 0.106], ["2022-09-28", 0.106], ["2022-09-29", 0.109], ["2022-09-29", 0.109], ["2022-09-29", 0.109], ["2022-09-29", 0.109], ["2022-10-01", 0.103], ["2022-10-04", 0.103], ["2022-10-04", 0.103], ["2022-10-04", 0.104], ["2022-10-05", 0.104], ["2022-10-05", 0.087], ["2022-10-05", 0.086], ["2022-10-06", 0.084], ["2022-10-07", 0.081], ["2022-10-07", 0.081], ["2022-10-08", 0.108], ["2022-10-08", 0.107], ["2022-10-08", 0.107]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11150/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.04], ["2022-05-30", 0.21], ["2022-05-30", 0.21], ["2022-05-30", 0.15], ["2022-05-31", 0.037], ["2022-05-31", 0.042], ["2022-05-31", 0.04], ["2022-05-31", 0.04], ["2022-06-01", 0.04], ["2022-06-02", 0.04], ["2022-06-07", 0.039], ["2022-06-07", 0.036], ["2022-06-12", 0.036], ["2022-06-12", 0.087], ["2022-06-12", 0.089], ["2022-06-14", 0.089], ["2022-06-21", 0.098], ["2022-06-22", 0.098], ["2022-06-25", 0.093], ["2022-06-28", 0.093], ["2022-06-28", 0.085], ["2022-07-02", 0.084], ["2022-07-04", 0.082], ["2022-07-05", 0.083], ["2022-07-05", 0.079], ["2022-07-06", 0.079], ["2022-07-07", 0.079], ["2022-07-11", 0.076], ["2022-07-12", 0.076], ["2022-07-15", 0.072], ["2022-07-15", 0.072], ["2022-07-20", 0.071], ["2022-07-21", 0.071], ["2022-07-22", 0.066], ["2022-07-24", 0.066], ["2022-07-27", 0.066], ["2022-07-27", 0.074], ["2022-08-01", 0.074], ["2022-08-01", 0.074], ["2022-08-01", 0.074], ["2022-08-04", 0.071], ["2022-08-04", 0.07], ["2022-08-05", 0.07], ["2022-08-12", 0.07], ["2022-08-18", 0.065], ["2022-08-18", 0.065], ["2022-08-20", 0.064], ["2022-08-22", 0.064], ["2022-08-25", 0.061], ["2022-08-25", 0.061], ["2022-08-25", 0.058], ["2022-08-31", 0.058], ["2022-09-15", 0.058], ["2022-09-15", 0.055], ["2022-09-15", 0.053], ["2022-09-19", 0.051], ["2022-09-29", 0.049], ["2022-09-29", 0.049], ["2022-09-29", 0.047], ["2022-10-02", 0.047], ["2022-10-03", 0.047]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11151/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Chicago White Sox win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-19 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-06-01", 0.015], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.082], ["2022-06-12", 0.086], ["2022-06-14", 0.086], ["2022-06-21", 0.086], ["2022-06-25", 0.086], ["2022-06-25", 0.082], ["2022-06-28", 0.082], ["2022-07-02", 0.08], ["2022-07-03", 0.08], ["2022-07-05", 0.077], ["2022-07-05", 0.077], ["2022-07-07", 0.078], ["2022-07-10", 0.077], ["2022-07-11", 0.072], ["2022-07-11", 0.072], ["2022-07-12", 0.071], ["2022-07-15", 0.071], ["2022-07-15", 0.067], ["2022-07-20", 0.065], ["2022-07-26", 0.065], ["2022-07-26", 0.064], ["2022-07-27", 0.077], ["2022-07-27", 0.061], ["2022-07-27", 0.061], ["2022-08-04", 0.067], ["2022-08-04", 0.067], ["2022-08-05", 0.065], ["2022-08-12", 0.126], ["2022-08-18", 0.117], ["2022-08-18", 0.117], ["2022-08-18", 0.117], ["2022-08-25", 0.117], ["2022-08-25", 0.116], ["2022-08-25", 0.116], ["2022-08-28", 0.059], ["2022-08-31", 0.059], ["2022-09-07", 0.058], ["2022-09-15", 0.058], ["2022-09-15", 0.055], ["2022-09-15", 0.052], ["2022-09-15", 0.052], ["2022-09-19", 0.049], ["2022-09-24", 0.049], ["2022-09-26", 0.078], ["2022-09-27", 0.078], ["2022-09-28", 0.073], ["2022-09-29", 0.074], ["2022-09-29", 0.074], ["2022-09-29", 0.07], ["2022-10-01", 0.067], ["2022-10-05", 0.065], ["2022-10-05", 0.05], ["2022-10-06", 0.05], ["2022-10-06", 0.05], ["2022-10-07", 0.049], ["2022-10-07", 0.048], ["2022-10-08", 0.049], ["2022-10-08", 0.049], ["2022-10-08", 0.049], ["2022-10-08", 0.058], ["2022-10-09", 0.059], ["2022-10-09", 0.059], ["2022-10-09", 0.06], ["2022-10-10", 0.06], ["2022-10-10", 0.059], ["2022-10-11", 0.061], ["2022-10-11", 0.061], ["2022-10-11", 0.061], ["2022-10-12", 0.06], ["2022-10-12", 0.06], ["2022-10-12", 0.057], ["2022-10-12", 0.057], ["2022-10-14", 0.055], ["2022-10-14", 0.054], ["2022-10-15", 0.054], ["2022-10-15", 0.053], ["2022-10-15", 0.061], ["2022-10-16", 0.062], ["2022-10-16", 0.063], ["2022-10-16", 0.092], ["2022-10-16", 0.093], ["2022-10-16", 0.108], ["2022-10-16", 0.128], ["2022-10-16", 0.13], ["2022-10-17", 0.132], ["2022-10-17", 0.135], ["2022-10-17", 0.121], ["2022-10-17", 0.121], ["2022-10-17", 0.123], ["2022-10-18", 0.122], ["2022-10-19", 0.072]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11152/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-06-01", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.069], ["2022-06-25", 0.069], ["2022-06-25", 0.072], ["2022-06-28", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.068], ["2022-07-05", 0.064], ["2022-07-05", 0.064], ["2022-07-07", 0.065], ["2022-07-08", 0.062], ["2022-07-10", 0.062], ["2022-07-11", 0.058], ["2022-07-12", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.053], ["2022-07-26", 0.051], ["2022-07-27", 0.051], ["2022-07-27", 0.051], ["2022-08-04", 0.058], ["2022-08-05", 0.055], ["2022-08-05", 0.055], ["2022-08-09", 0.051], ["2022-08-16", 0.051], ["2022-08-18", 0.048], ["2022-08-25", 0.046], ["2022-08-31", 0.046], ["2022-09-01", 0.045], ["2022-09-09", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-15", 0.04], ["2022-09-19", 0.04], ["2022-09-29", 0.038], ["2022-09-29", 0.037]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11153/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Detroit Tigers win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-06-01", 0.015], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-12", 0.013], ["2022-06-12", 0.082], ["2022-06-14", 0.086], ["2022-06-14", 0.076], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.071], ["2022-06-26", 0.071], ["2022-06-28", 0.072], ["2022-07-02", 0.072], ["2022-07-05", 0.064], ["2022-07-05", 0.064], ["2022-07-07", 0.065], ["2022-07-08", 0.065], ["2022-07-10", 0.062], ["2022-07-11", 0.058], ["2022-07-12", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.053], ["2022-07-26", 0.059], ["2022-07-27", 0.051], ["2022-07-27", 0.051], ["2022-08-04", 0.057], ["2022-08-05", 0.055], ["2022-08-16", 0.051], ["2022-08-18", 0.051], ["2022-08-25", 0.049], ["2022-08-31", 0.049], ["2022-09-01", 0.049], ["2022-09-09", 0.045], ["2022-09-15", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-19", 0.04], ["2022-09-29", 0.04], ["2022-09-29", 0.037]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11154/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Kansas City Royals win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.05], ["2022-05-30", 0.05], ["2022-05-30", 0.215], ["2022-05-30", 0.147], ["2022-05-31", 0.032], ["2022-05-31", 0.032], ["2022-05-31", 0.032], ["2022-05-31", 0.031], ["2022-06-01", 0.031], ["2022-06-02", 0.03], ["2022-06-07", 0.03], ["2022-06-07", 0.028], ["2022-06-12", 0.08], ["2022-06-12", 0.08], ["2022-06-12", 0.083], ["2022-06-14", 0.083], ["2022-06-21", 0.092], ["2022-06-25", 0.078], ["2022-06-26", 0.078], ["2022-06-28", 0.078], ["2022-07-02", 0.076], ["2022-07-05", 0.072], ["2022-07-05", 0.072], ["2022-07-07", 0.097], ["2022-07-08", 0.097], ["2022-07-10", 0.094], ["2022-07-11", 0.089], ["2022-07-12", 0.095], ["2022-07-15", 0.095], ["2022-07-15", 0.09], ["2022-07-16", 0.088], ["2022-07-20", 0.085], ["2022-07-21", 0.066], ["2022-07-26", 0.066], ["2022-07-26", 0.087], ["2022-07-27", 0.093], ["2022-07-27", 0.092], ["2022-07-27", 0.086], ["2022-08-04", 0.086], ["2022-08-04", 0.079], ["2022-08-05", 0.063], ["2022-08-16", 0.063], ["2022-08-16", 0.07], ["2022-08-18", 0.07], ["2022-08-18", 0.057], ["2022-08-20", 0.057], ["2022-08-22", 0.057], ["2022-08-25", 0.054], ["2022-08-31", 0.054], ["2022-09-15", 0.053], ["2022-09-15", 0.051], ["2022-09-15", 0.049], ["2022-09-19", 0.048], ["2022-09-29", 0.047], ["2022-09-29", 0.045], ["2022-09-29", 0.044], ["2022-09-29", 0.044], ["2022-10-03", 0.043]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11155/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Minnesota Twins win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-05 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.23], ["2022-05-31", 0.09], ["2022-06-01", 0.09], ["2022-06-02", 0.09], ["2022-06-07", 0.085], ["2022-06-07", 0.086], ["2022-06-12", 0.086], ["2022-06-12", 0.142], ["2022-06-14", 0.144], ["2022-06-14", 0.144], ["2022-06-21", 0.144], ["2022-06-25", 0.138], ["2022-06-25", 0.135], ["2022-06-28", 0.141], ["2022-06-28", 0.143], ["2022-06-30", 0.143], ["2022-07-02", 0.148], ["2022-07-05", 0.145], ["2022-07-05", 0.145], ["2022-07-07", 0.159], ["2022-07-07", 0.158], ["2022-07-10", 0.158], ["2022-07-11", 0.16], ["2022-07-12", 0.16], ["2022-07-13", 0.163], ["2022-07-14", 0.165], ["2022-07-15", 0.166], ["2022-07-20", 0.166], ["2022-07-20", 0.171], ["2022-07-27", 0.171], ["2022-07-28", 0.167], ["2022-08-01", 0.169], ["2022-08-01", 0.167], ["2022-08-03", 0.167], ["2022-08-04", 0.171], ["2022-08-05", 0.171], ["2022-08-16", 0.171], ["2022-08-16", 0.169], ["2022-08-18", 0.167], ["2022-08-18", 0.167], ["2022-08-20", 0.174], ["2022-08-21", 0.171], ["2022-08-22", 0.173], ["2022-08-25", 0.184], ["2022-08-25", 0.181], ["2022-08-28", 0.181], ["2022-08-31", 0.175], ["2022-08-31", 0.174], ["2022-09-04", 0.174], ["2022-09-08", 0.17], ["2022-09-10", 0.181], ["2022-09-15", 0.181], ["2022-09-15", 0.178], ["2022-09-19", 0.179], ["2022-09-19", 0.173], ["2022-09-21", 0.173], ["2022-09-22", 0.174], ["2022-09-24", 0.175], ["2022-09-25", 0.176], ["2022-09-26", 0.176], ["2022-09-27", 0.179], ["2022-09-28", 0.175], ["2022-09-29", 0.174], ["2022-10-01", 0.181], ["2022-10-02", 0.182], ["2022-10-04", 0.182], ["2022-10-05", 0.182], ["2022-10-06", 0.18], ["2022-10-07", 0.182], ["2022-10-08", 0.184], ["2022-10-08", 0.184], ["2022-10-09", 0.187], ["2022-10-10", 0.187], ["2022-10-11", 0.187], ["2022-10-12", 0.189], ["2022-10-13", 0.19], ["2022-10-13", 0.192], ["2022-10-15", 0.225], ["2022-10-15", 0.204], ["2022-10-16", 0.237], ["2022-10-17", 0.264], ["2022-10-18", 0.264], ["2022-10-18", 0.264], ["2022-10-20", 0.273], ["2022-10-21", 0.288], ["2022-10-22", 0.297], ["2022-10-23", 0.335], ["2022-10-24", 0.412], ["2022-10-25", 0.468], ["2022-10-26", 0.487], ["2022-10-27", 0.509], ["2022-10-28", 0.514], ["2022-10-29", 0.517], ["2022-10-29", 0.517], ["2022-10-30", 0.533], ["2022-10-31", 0.539], ["2022-11-01", 0.539], ["2022-11-02", 0.51], ["2022-11-03", 0.517], ["2022-11-04", 0.551], ["2022-11-05", 0.6]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11156/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Houston Astros win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.04], ["2022-05-30", 0.21], ["2022-05-30", 0.157], ["2022-05-30", 0.212], ["2022-05-31", 0.212], ["2022-05-31", 0.178], ["2022-05-31", 0.133], ["2022-06-01", 0.121], ["2022-06-07", 0.112], ["2022-06-07", 0.105], ["2022-06-11", 0.108], ["2022-06-12", 0.162], ["2022-06-12", 0.162], ["2022-06-14", 0.165], ["2022-06-14", 0.165], ["2022-06-21", 0.165], ["2022-06-25", 0.153], ["2022-06-28", 0.153], ["2022-06-30", 0.153], ["2022-07-02", 0.145], ["2022-07-04", 0.145], ["2022-07-04", 0.145], ["2022-07-04", 0.145], ["2022-07-05", 0.127], ["2022-07-05", 0.127], ["2022-07-06", 0.125], ["2022-07-07", 0.125], ["2022-07-07", 0.123], ["2022-07-08", 0.122], ["2022-07-11", 0.114], ["2022-07-11", 0.114], ["2022-07-12", 0.112], ["2022-07-15", 0.106], ["2022-07-15", 0.102], ["2022-07-20", 0.102], ["2022-07-26", 0.101], ["2022-07-27", 0.101], ["2022-07-27", 0.101], ["2022-07-27", 0.106], ["2022-08-04", 0.105], ["2022-08-05", 0.105], ["2022-08-09", 0.104], ["2022-08-16", 0.104], ["2022-08-18", 0.099], ["2022-08-25", 0.099], ["2022-08-31", 0.094], ["2022-09-01", 0.094], ["2022-09-09", 0.088], ["2022-09-15", 0.088], ["2022-09-15", 0.084], ["2022-09-29", 0.078], ["2022-09-29", 0.075]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11157/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-31", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-06-01", 0.016], ["2022-06-07", 0.016], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-12", 0.073], ["2022-06-12", 0.073], ["2022-06-12", 0.076], ["2022-06-14", 0.076], ["2022-06-21", 0.076], ["2022-06-25", 0.09], ["2022-06-25", 0.084], ["2022-06-25", 0.084], ["2022-06-25", 0.087], ["2022-06-28", 0.087], ["2022-07-02", 0.085], ["2022-07-03", 0.088], ["2022-07-04", 0.088], ["2022-07-05", 0.084], ["2022-07-05", 0.084], ["2022-07-07", 0.081], ["2022-07-07", 0.079], ["2022-07-07", 0.08], ["2022-07-10", 0.08], ["2022-07-11", 0.075], ["2022-07-12", 0.075], ["2022-07-15", 0.071], ["2022-07-15", 0.071], ["2022-07-16", 0.067], ["2022-07-16", 0.067], ["2022-07-20", 0.066], ["2022-07-26", 0.065], ["2022-07-27", 0.065], ["2022-07-27", 0.065], ["2022-07-27", 0.064], ["2022-08-04", 0.069], ["2022-08-05", 0.069], ["2022-08-09", 0.069], ["2022-08-16", 0.063], ["2022-08-18", 0.063], ["2022-08-25", 0.06], ["2022-08-31", 0.06], ["2022-09-01", 0.059], ["2022-09-09", 0.056], ["2022-09-15", 0.056], ["2022-09-15", 0.053], ["2022-09-15", 0.053], ["2022-09-19", 0.05], ["2022-09-29", 0.049], ["2022-09-29", 0.045]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11158/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Oakland Athletics win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-16 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.01], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-06-01", 0.015], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.075], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.069], ["2022-06-25", 0.064], ["2022-06-25", 0.064], ["2022-06-28", 0.066], ["2022-07-02", 0.062], ["2022-07-05", 0.058], ["2022-07-05", 0.058], ["2022-07-06", 0.057], ["2022-07-11", 0.057], ["2022-07-12", 0.054], ["2022-07-15", 0.051], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.05], ["2022-07-26", 0.05], ["2022-07-27", 0.049], ["2022-07-27", 0.054], ["2022-07-28", 0.055], ["2022-08-01", 0.055], ["2022-08-03", 0.056], ["2022-08-04", 0.056], ["2022-08-04", 0.112], ["2022-08-05", 0.112], ["2022-08-05", 0.112], ["2022-08-16", 0.108], ["2022-08-18", 0.109], ["2022-08-20", 0.111], ["2022-08-20", 0.11], ["2022-08-20", 0.11], ["2022-08-25", 0.109], ["2022-08-25", 0.052], ["2022-08-31", 0.05], ["2022-09-07", 0.051], ["2022-09-08", 0.105], ["2022-09-10", 0.105], ["2022-09-15", 0.059], ["2022-09-15", 0.06], ["2022-09-19", 0.06], ["2022-09-19", 0.061], ["2022-09-24", 0.051], ["2022-09-26", 0.051], ["2022-09-29", 0.05], ["2022-09-29", 0.05], ["2022-09-29", 0.048], ["2022-09-29", 0.048], ["2022-09-29", 0.046], ["2022-09-30", 0.046], ["2022-09-30", 0.043], ["2022-10-02", 0.042], ["2022-10-03", 0.042], ["2022-10-04", 0.041], ["2022-10-05", 0.041], ["2022-10-05", 0.041], ["2022-10-05", 0.041], ["2022-10-06", 0.043], ["2022-10-07", 0.043], ["2022-10-07", 0.042], ["2022-10-07", 0.043], ["2022-10-08", 0.043], ["2022-10-08", 0.041], ["2022-10-08", 0.041], ["2022-10-08", 0.043], ["2022-10-10", 0.044], ["2022-10-10", 0.045], ["2022-10-11", 0.046], ["2022-10-11", 0.046], ["2022-10-11", 0.047], ["2022-10-12", 0.046], ["2022-10-12", 0.046], ["2022-10-12", 0.046], ["2022-10-12", 0.045], ["2022-10-12", 0.045], ["2022-10-14", 0.044], ["2022-10-15", 0.043], ["2022-10-15", 0.043], ["2022-10-15", 0.042], ["2022-10-16", 0.042]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11159/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Seattle Mariners win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-04 | 2022-05-30 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.195], ["2022-05-30", 0.02], ["2022-05-31", 0.017], ["2022-05-31", 0.016], ["2022-05-31", 0.015], ["2022-06-01", 0.015], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-07", 0.014], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.072], ["2022-06-12", 0.075], ["2022-06-14", 0.075], ["2022-06-21", 0.075], ["2022-06-25", 0.069], ["2022-06-25", 0.064], ["2022-06-25", 0.066], ["2022-06-28", 0.066], ["2022-07-02", 0.062], ["2022-07-05", 0.058], ["2022-07-05", 0.058], ["2022-07-06", 0.057], ["2022-07-11", 0.054], ["2022-07-12", 0.054], ["2022-07-15", 0.051], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.05], ["2022-07-26", 0.05], ["2022-07-27", 0.049], ["2022-07-27", 0.049], ["2022-08-04", 0.054], ["2022-08-05", 0.052], ["2022-08-16", 0.052], ["2022-08-18", 0.049], ["2022-08-25", 0.046], ["2022-08-25", 0.046], ["2022-08-31", 0.046], ["2022-09-01", 0.045], ["2022-09-09", 0.043], ["2022-09-15", 0.041], ["2022-09-15", 0.04], ["2022-09-29", 0.038], ["2022-09-29", 0.037]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11160/ | The World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB. It will be held following the end of the regular season on October 5, 2022. | Sports | This question will resolve as Yes for the team winning the 2022 World Series, as determined by MLB. All other teams will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Texas Rangers win the 2022 World Series in baseball? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-01 | ["https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_prime_ministers_of_Great_Britain_and_the_United_Kingdom?wprov=sfla1", "https://twitter.com/MonarchyUK/status/1584859858524065794?t=DiciQWBcL5jZ_Ft-AjGdkw&s=19", "https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/23/boris-johnson-says-he-will-not-stand-in-tory-leadership-contest", "https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics)...", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-nomination-b2208423.html)", "https://t.co/ftgIKn7xZv).", "https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1584099350048694273", "https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25/crossheading/conduct-of-the-recall-petition-process", "https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/289/committee-of-privileges/news/172818/privileges-committee-inquiry-into-rt-hon-boris-johnson-mp-frequently-asked-questions/", "https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-21/damning-partygate-evidence-means-boris-johnson-could-be-gone-by-christmas", "https://apple.news/AX8eHQbN9Sl6hLGIcCtLMIw", "https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1582762282626736128", "https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1582760729362321408", "https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-tory-party-members-want-truss-to-resign-now-and-want-boris-johnson-to-replace-her-12723609", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/25/boris-johnson-tells-friend-dont-want-resign-will-stay-tory-members/"] | binary | [["2022-06-04", 0.4], ["2022-06-06", 0.471], ["2022-06-07", 0.572], ["2022-06-09", 0.596], ["2022-06-10", 0.594], ["2022-06-11", 0.594], ["2022-06-12", 0.602], ["2022-06-14", 0.602], ["2022-06-15", 0.602], ["2022-06-16", 0.605], ["2022-06-18", 0.604], ["2022-06-18", 0.602], ["2022-06-20", 0.601], ["2022-06-21", 0.602], ["2022-06-23", 0.602], ["2022-06-24", 0.601], ["2022-06-25", 0.602], ["2022-06-27", 0.601], ["2022-06-28", 0.603], ["2022-06-30", 0.603], ["2022-07-02", 0.602], ["2022-07-04", 0.602], ["2022-07-06", 0.455], ["2022-07-07", 0.212], ["2022-07-08", 0.171], ["2022-07-10", 0.156], ["2022-07-11", 0.156], ["2022-07-12", 0.156], ["2022-07-13", 0.156], ["2022-07-15", 0.155], ["2022-07-16", 0.153], ["2022-07-19", 0.153], ["2022-07-21", 0.153], ["2022-07-22", 0.152], ["2022-07-23", 0.152], ["2022-07-25", 0.149], ["2022-07-27", 0.144], ["2022-07-28", 0.144], ["2022-07-31", 0.142], ["2022-08-05", 0.143], ["2022-08-09", 0.143], ["2022-08-17", 0.141], ["2022-08-18", 0.141], ["2022-08-22", 0.141], ["2022-08-23", 0.141], ["2022-08-25", 0.141], ["2022-08-28", 0.14], ["2022-08-31", 0.141], ["2022-08-31", 0.138], ["2022-09-05", 0.137], ["2022-09-06", 0.132], ["2022-09-07", 0.127], ["2022-09-08", 0.126], ["2022-09-12", 0.125], ["2022-09-18", 0.125], ["2022-09-19", 0.125], ["2022-09-21", 0.124], ["2022-09-27", 0.125], ["2022-09-29", 0.122], ["2022-09-30", 0.122], ["2022-10-01", 0.119], ["2022-10-02", 0.118], ["2022-10-09", 0.118], ["2022-10-11", 0.118], ["2022-10-12", 0.116], ["2022-10-16", 0.116], ["2022-10-17", 0.113], ["2022-10-18", 0.109], ["2022-10-20", 0.128], ["2022-10-21", 0.18], ["2022-10-23", 0.21], ["2022-10-24", 0.117], ["2022-10-25", 0.107], ["2022-10-26", 0.104], ["2022-10-28", 0.101], ["2022-10-31", 0.101], ["2022-11-01", 0.101], ["2022-11-08", 0.101], ["2022-11-10", 0.101], ["2022-11-12", 0.1], ["2022-11-13", 0.1], ["2022-11-15", 0.1], ["2022-11-15", 0.101], ["2022-11-18", 0.1], ["2022-11-20", 0.1], ["2022-11-23", 0.1], ["2022-11-24", 0.099], ["2022-11-26", 0.099], ["2022-11-28", 0.098], ["2022-11-28", 0.098], ["2022-11-30", 0.098], ["2022-12-14", 0.098], ["2022-12-15", 0.098], ["2022-12-17", 0.098], ["2022-12-22", 0.097], ["2022-12-23", 0.097], ["2022-12-25", 0.096], ["2022-12-27", 0.095], ["2022-12-29", 0.094], ["2022-12-31", 0.088], ["2022-12-31", 0.082]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11178/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.
As of June 2022, it is reported that many Conservative MPs have submitted letters to the 1922 Committee indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party. It has been suggested that a leadership challenge is increasingly likely. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on January 1, 2023, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It resolves negatively if this is not the case | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-06-01 | ["https://sos.ga.gov/page/military-and-overseas-voting", "https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/election-results-and-data/2022-official-election-results/", "https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/election-results-and-data/2022-official-election-results/", "https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/ohio/senate/", "https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/election-results-and-data/2022-official-election-results/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11105/stacey-abrams-elected-ga-gov-in-2022/#comment-107080", "https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-tim-ryan-donald-trump-congress-426973c2652b7c28d46f17be3d08b8d2", "https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/115465/web.307039/#/summary", "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/08/jd-vance-wins-ohio-senate-race-republicans", "https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/election-results-and-data/2022-official-election-results/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/peter-thiel-signals-he-is-done-helping-jd-vance-will-fundraise-for-blake-masters.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1664825367", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-win-a-senate-race-when-youve-never-won-an-election-before/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ohio/"] | binary | [["2022-06-05", 0.85], ["2022-06-06", 0.72], ["2022-06-07", 0.647], ["2022-06-09", 0.635], ["2022-06-10", 0.635], ["2022-06-12", 0.627], ["2022-06-13", 0.686], ["2022-06-14", 0.7], ["2022-06-16", 0.703], ["2022-06-17", 0.709], ["2022-06-18", 0.709], ["2022-06-19", 0.709], ["2022-06-21", 0.709], ["2022-06-22", 0.701], ["2022-06-24", 0.701], ["2022-06-25", 0.703], ["2022-06-26", 0.702], ["2022-06-28", 0.7], ["2022-06-30", 0.698], ["2022-07-01", 0.726], ["2022-07-02", 0.73], ["2022-07-03", 0.73], ["2022-07-05", 0.742], ["2022-07-06", 0.743], ["2022-07-07", 0.743], ["2022-07-09", 0.749], ["2022-07-09", 0.747], ["2022-07-11", 0.75], ["2022-07-12", 0.753], ["2022-07-14", 0.753], ["2022-07-15", 0.756], ["2022-07-16", 0.758], ["2022-07-20", 0.759], ["2022-07-21", 0.762], ["2022-07-22", 0.762], ["2022-07-25", 0.764], ["2022-07-27", 0.766], ["2022-07-30", 0.766], ["2022-07-31", 0.763], ["2022-08-02", 0.76], ["2022-08-03", 0.759], ["2022-08-04", 0.758], ["2022-08-05", 0.757], ["2022-08-06", 0.753], ["2022-08-09", 0.755], ["2022-08-10", 0.755], ["2022-08-12", 0.755], ["2022-08-14", 0.755], ["2022-08-16", 0.756], ["2022-08-17", 0.753], ["2022-08-18", 0.753], ["2022-08-20", 0.757], ["2022-08-22", 0.756], ["2022-08-23", 0.758], ["2022-08-25", 0.76], ["2022-08-28", 0.76], ["2022-08-30", 0.76], ["2022-08-31", 0.757], ["2022-09-01", 0.757], ["2022-09-02", 0.754], ["2022-09-05", 0.754], ["2022-09-07", 0.748], ["2022-09-08", 0.748], ["2022-09-10", 0.749], ["2022-09-12", 0.747], ["2022-09-15", 0.747], ["2022-09-16", 0.747], ["2022-09-18", 0.744], ["2022-09-19", 0.747], ["2022-09-21", 0.747], ["2022-09-22", 0.746], ["2022-09-24", 0.746], ["2022-09-25", 0.744], ["2022-09-27", 0.746], ["2022-09-29", 0.745], ["2022-10-02", 0.741], ["2022-10-03", 0.741], ["2022-10-05", 0.739], ["2022-10-06", 0.738], ["2022-10-08", 0.736], ["2022-10-09", 0.737], ["2022-10-11", 0.735], ["2022-10-12", 0.733], ["2022-10-14", 0.734], ["2022-10-15", 0.735], ["2022-10-16", 0.734], ["2022-10-18", 0.733], ["2022-10-19", 0.733], ["2022-10-20", 0.736], ["2022-10-22", 0.738], ["2022-10-23", 0.741], ["2022-10-25", 0.743], ["2022-10-26", 0.744], ["2022-10-27", 0.744], ["2022-10-29", 0.746], ["2022-10-30", 0.75], ["2022-11-01", 0.75], ["2022-11-02", 0.756], ["2022-11-04", 0.759], ["2022-11-06", 0.762], ["2022-11-07", 0.785]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11180/ | James David Vance, commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American conservative politician, commentator, and author, and former U.S. Marine, corporate lawyer, and venture capitalist. He is best known for his memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which attracted significant press attention during the 2016 election.
Vance is the Republican nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio, having announced his candidacy to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Rob Portman on July 1, 2021. On May 3, 2022, he won the Republican primary and will face Democratic nominee Tim Ryan in the November general election. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if J.D. Vance is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur for any reason | true | 2022-11-08 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2022-06-01 | ["https://abcnews.go.com/International/nigeria-presidential-election-2023-bola-tinubu-declared-winner/story?id=97543621", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14493/nigerian-presidential-election-2023/", "http://www.anapfoundation.com/press-releases/peter-obi-consolidates-lead-in-a-fragmented-presidential-race", "https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/01/01/2023-of-polls-projections-and-partisanship/", "https://guardian.ng/politics/apc-unveils-shettima-as-tinubu-running-mate-wednesday/"] | binary | [["2022-06-12", 0.4], ["2022-06-12", 0.399], ["2022-06-12", 0.399], ["2022-06-13", 0.405], ["2022-06-14", 0.416], ["2022-06-14", 0.439], ["2022-06-14", 0.441], ["2022-06-15", 0.444], ["2022-06-16", 0.449], ["2022-06-16", 0.456], ["2022-06-18", 0.456], ["2022-06-21", 0.458], ["2022-06-28", 0.458], ["2022-07-05", 0.458], ["2022-07-12", 0.458], ["2022-07-15", 0.458], ["2022-07-19", 0.462], ["2022-07-20", 0.462], ["2022-07-20", 0.463], ["2022-07-20", 0.465], ["2022-07-21", 0.476], ["2022-07-24", 0.476], ["2022-07-27", 0.477], ["2022-08-05", 0.477], ["2022-08-18", 0.477], ["2022-08-22", 0.477], ["2022-08-23", 0.465], ["2022-08-31", 0.465], ["2022-10-16", 0.465], ["2022-10-25", 0.465], ["2022-10-26", 0.465], ["2022-10-28", 0.465], ["2022-10-30", 0.458], ["2022-10-31", 0.459], ["2022-11-01", 0.458], ["2022-11-12", 0.458], ["2022-11-13", 0.459], ["2022-11-14", 0.459], ["2022-11-19", 0.457], ["2022-11-23", 0.457], ["2022-12-19", 0.458], ["2023-01-02", 0.459], ["2023-01-02", 0.459], ["2023-01-03", 0.455], ["2023-01-03", 0.449], ["2023-01-03", 0.45], ["2023-01-04", 0.448], ["2023-01-04", 0.447], ["2023-01-05", 0.446], ["2023-01-05", 0.446], ["2023-01-06", 0.468], ["2023-01-06", 0.472], ["2023-01-14", 0.472], ["2023-01-16", 0.47], ["2023-01-22", 0.47], ["2023-01-22", 0.465], ["2023-01-23", 0.466], ["2023-01-23", 0.465], ["2023-01-26", 0.453], ["2023-01-27", 0.453], ["2023-01-27", 0.443], ["2023-01-28", 0.443], ["2023-01-28", 0.44], ["2023-01-28", 0.438], ["2023-01-28", 0.438], ["2023-01-29", 0.432], ["2023-01-30", 0.43], ["2023-02-01", 0.425], ["2023-02-04", 0.426], ["2023-02-04", 0.414], ["2023-02-07", 0.412], ["2023-02-07", 0.405], ["2023-02-09", 0.406], ["2023-02-10", 0.406], ["2023-02-10", 0.393], ["2023-02-10", 0.394], ["2023-02-11", 0.394], ["2023-02-13", 0.384], ["2023-02-14", 0.383], ["2023-02-14", 0.377], ["2023-02-15", 0.371], ["2023-02-15", 0.371], ["2023-02-16", 0.366], ["2023-02-16", 0.361], ["2023-02-17", 0.358], ["2023-02-17", 0.346], ["2023-02-18", 0.343], ["2023-02-18", 0.342], ["2023-02-18", 0.335], ["2023-02-19", 0.335], ["2023-02-20", 0.327], ["2023-02-20", 0.324], ["2023-02-21", 0.324], ["2023-02-21", 0.319], ["2023-02-21", 0.315], ["2023-02-22", 0.315], ["2023-02-22", 0.313], ["2023-02-23", 0.313], ["2023-02-24", 0.304], ["2023-02-24", 0.297], ["2023-02-24", 0.293]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11181/ | The next Nigerian Presidential election is scheduled to be held on February 25, 2023. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is term-limited and may not seek reelection.
As of June 2023, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has nominated Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President (1999-2007), as its candidate. The PDP last held the Nigerian Presidency during the Goodluck Jonathan administration from 2010 to 2015. The incumbent APC has nominated APC Leader and former Lagos State Governor (1999-2007) Bola Tinubu. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if at least two credible media sources declare the PDP candidate the winner of the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election. It resolves as No otherwise | true | 2023-02-24 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-03 | 2022-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-02", 0.66], ["2022-06-02", 0.8], ["2022-06-02", 0.863], ["2022-06-02", 0.872], ["2022-06-02", 0.895], ["2022-06-02", 0.895], ["2022-06-02", 0.903], ["2022-06-02", 0.903], ["2022-06-02", 0.917], ["2022-06-02", 0.896], ["2022-06-02", 0.903], ["2022-06-02", 0.914], ["2022-06-02", 0.876], ["2022-06-02", 0.889], ["2022-06-02", 0.89], ["2022-06-02", 0.893], ["2022-06-02", 0.895], ["2022-06-02", 0.895], ["2022-06-02", 0.897], ["2022-06-02", 0.894], ["2022-06-02", 0.879], ["2022-06-02", 0.877], ["2022-06-02", 0.877], ["2022-06-02", 0.875], ["2022-06-02", 0.881], ["2022-06-02", 0.881]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11190/ | Polls close June 2, 2022.
Will Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives maintain their majority in Ontario?
Party leaders' political fate at stake in Ontario's election. | Politics & Governance | Question resolve yes if CBC reports PC has won a majority.
Fine Print
If CBC reports "Yes, PC has won a majority," but publishes something contradictory within 24 hours of the initial announcement, the more recent claim will be favoured. Administrators will delay resolution until the most recent CBC reporting on the question has not substantively changed for 24 hours. | true | 2022-06-03 | Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-02 | ["https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1611871202770812928?s=20&t=6XiwIG5tdUivbzf82l-RPQ", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/>.", "https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1582044513274822656", "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#closers"] | binary | [["2022-06-21", 0.29], ["2022-06-22", 0.28], ["2022-06-24", 0.228], ["2022-06-26", 0.231], ["2022-06-27", 0.259], ["2022-06-28", 0.277], ["2022-06-29", 0.289], ["2022-07-04", 0.289], ["2022-07-05", 0.289], ["2022-07-06", 0.292], ["2022-07-08", 0.3], ["2022-07-09", 0.298], ["2022-07-11", 0.324], ["2022-07-12", 0.324], ["2022-07-13", 0.324], ["2022-07-15", 0.329], ["2022-07-15", 0.329], ["2022-07-16", 0.336], ["2022-07-17", 0.337], ["2022-07-19", 0.335], ["2022-07-21", 0.338], ["2022-07-22", 0.32], ["2022-07-23", 0.32], ["2022-07-24", 0.318], ["2022-07-26", 0.318], ["2022-07-27", 0.321], ["2022-07-30", 0.321], ["2022-08-01", 0.32], ["2022-08-02", 0.314], ["2022-08-04", 0.314], ["2022-08-05", 0.321], ["2022-08-07", 0.315], ["2022-08-08", 0.311], ["2022-08-11", 0.309], ["2022-08-12", 0.292], ["2022-08-13", 0.288], ["2022-08-15", 0.277], ["2022-08-16", 0.268], ["2022-08-17", 0.266], ["2022-08-18", 0.262], ["2022-08-20", 0.259], ["2022-08-23", 0.26], ["2022-08-28", 0.26], ["2022-08-31", 0.259], ["2022-09-04", 0.259], ["2022-09-13", 0.257], ["2022-09-15", 0.256], ["2022-10-09", 0.254], ["2022-10-11", 0.264], ["2022-10-12", 0.261], ["2022-10-14", 0.262], ["2022-10-15", 0.261], ["2022-10-17", 0.253], ["2022-10-18", 0.25], ["2022-10-19", 0.25], ["2022-10-20", 0.252], ["2022-10-22", 0.256], ["2022-10-24", 0.24], ["2022-10-25", 0.237], ["2022-10-26", 0.238], ["2022-10-27", 0.238], ["2022-10-28", 0.235], ["2022-11-01", 0.234], ["2022-11-05", 0.234], ["2022-11-05", 0.232], ["2022-11-07", 0.231], ["2022-11-08", 0.228], ["2022-11-10", 0.225], ["2022-11-12", 0.22], ["2022-11-12", 0.218], ["2022-11-14", 0.218], ["2022-11-15", 0.218], ["2022-11-18", 0.219], ["2022-11-18", 0.214], ["2022-11-20", 0.214], ["2022-11-21", 0.211], ["2022-11-23", 0.207], ["2022-11-24", 0.206], ["2022-11-26", 0.204], ["2022-11-27", 0.204], ["2022-11-28", 0.199], ["2022-12-04", 0.199], ["2022-12-05", 0.2], ["2022-12-07", 0.198], ["2022-12-10", 0.198], ["2022-12-11", 0.199], ["2022-12-12", 0.197], ["2022-12-14", 0.197], ["2022-12-15", 0.195], ["2022-12-16", 0.194], ["2022-12-18", 0.192], ["2022-12-19", 0.189], ["2022-12-20", 0.186], ["2022-12-22", 0.183], ["2022-12-23", 0.174], ["2022-12-24", 0.177], ["2022-12-25", 0.174], ["2022-12-27", 0.172], ["2022-12-29", 0.168], ["2022-12-30", 0.16], ["2022-12-31", 0.113]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11191/ | So far during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian troops have crossed the northern land border of Ukraine roughly from the central north and northeast. Starting from late March, Russia moved its forces further to the east.
However, in the telegram channel Беларускі Гаюн there have been reports of military vehicle movement towards Brest in western Belarus, suggesting that a new front somewhere along the western border between Ukraine and Belarus is a possibility. The objective for such an invasion could be e.g. to interrupt the supply routes from Poland. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts, at any point between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, according to credible media reports | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-03 | ["https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2022-09-05/american_frances_tiafoe_defeats_22time_grand_slam_champion_rafael_nadal_at_2022_us_open.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#whenresolve"] | binary | [["2022-07-29", 0.6], ["2022-07-29", 0.6], ["2022-07-30", 0.55], ["2022-07-30", 0.55], ["2022-07-30", 0.617], ["2022-07-30", 0.617], ["2022-07-31", 0.657], ["2022-07-31", 0.729], ["2022-07-31", 0.729], ["2022-07-31", 0.72], ["2022-07-31", 0.726], ["2022-08-02", 0.764], ["2022-08-02", 0.764], ["2022-08-02", 0.747], ["2022-08-02", 0.726], ["2022-08-03", 0.718], ["2022-08-03", 0.72], ["2022-08-03", 0.72], ["2022-08-03", 0.69], ["2022-08-05", 0.69], ["2022-08-05", 0.684], ["2022-08-05", 0.685], ["2022-08-10", 0.679], ["2022-08-11", 0.677], ["2022-08-11", 0.676], ["2022-08-12", 0.674], ["2022-08-12", 0.674], ["2022-08-14", 0.668], ["2022-08-15", 0.694], ["2022-08-15", 0.697], ["2022-08-17", 0.697], ["2022-08-17", 0.696], ["2022-08-17", 0.696], ["2022-08-18", 0.696], ["2022-08-18", 0.698], ["2022-08-18", 0.699], ["2022-08-18", 0.706], ["2022-08-22", 0.68], ["2022-08-22", 0.676], ["2022-08-22", 0.677], ["2022-08-22", 0.677], ["2022-08-22", 0.659], ["2022-08-23", 0.657], ["2022-08-23", 0.654], ["2022-08-24", 0.657], ["2022-08-25", 0.652], ["2022-08-25", 0.65], ["2022-08-25", 0.65], ["2022-08-25", 0.651], ["2022-08-25", 0.653], ["2022-08-28", 0.654], ["2022-08-31", 0.654], ["2022-08-31", 0.654], ["2022-09-01", 0.653], ["2022-09-04", 0.657], ["2022-09-04", 0.657], ["2022-09-04", 0.657], ["2022-09-05", 0.658], ["2022-09-05", 0.668], ["2022-09-05", 0.668], ["2022-09-05", 0.665], ["2022-09-05", 0.665], ["2022-09-05", 0.66], ["2022-09-05", 0.661], ["2022-09-05", 0.663], ["2022-09-05", 0.659], ["2022-09-05", 0.642], ["2022-09-05", 0.642], ["2022-09-05", 0.608], ["2022-09-05", 0.603]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11203/ | After making it to the semifinals of the first three grand slam tournaments, Nadal now turns his attention to the US Open, the final grand slam of the tennis calendar year. Although Nadal is 18-0 in grand slams this year, he was forced to withdraw from Wimbledon before his semifinal match , raising further questions about the 36 year old's ability to remain healthy and compete during the US Open. However, despite such concerns, Nadal will undoubtedly be one of the favorites to win the event due to his recent success at the event coupled with the absence of Novak Djokovic. | Sports | If Nadal is able to advance to the semifinals of the tournament, the question will resolve as Yes. If he loses or withdraws before the semifinals for any reason, the question will resolve as No | true | 2022-09-06 | Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-12 | 2022-06-04 | ["https://twitter.com/MastersPress/status/1587400307381878788?s=19", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/arizona-senate-candidate-blake-masters-views-on-gay-marriage-may-surprise-his-political-master-peter-thiel", "https://www.axios.com/2022/10/12/peter-thiel-arizona-blake-masters-mcconnell", "https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-donald-trump-presidential-herschel-walker-45ce6fb7304a973192d108efb7308720?taid=6340cac162e530000139568f&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter", "https://events.donaldjtrump.com/events/save-america-rally-in-mesa-az", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt7oJ1lnfro&ab_channel=ArizonaPBS", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/peter-thiel-signals-he-is-done-helping-jd-vance-will-fundraise-for-blake-masters.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1664825367", "https://www.azcleanelections.gov/us-senate-debate", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/arizona/", "https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1565759017976074240", "https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1563227519381565440", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/15/gop-slashes-ads-in-key-senate-battlegrounds-00051969", "https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1563369320557662208", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1563370244227211265", "https://twitter.com/brianbeutler/status/1563012494658269190?t=BNoH-SvyZ_GiPz5a9SNSOQ&s=19", "https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1562882136046436352?t=40FR5X8oDVK6DQjEFdviFA&s=19", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona", "https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1560478962043604992)", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-win-a-senate-race-when-youve-never-won-an-election-before/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/arizona/", "https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1554827060916506624", "https://twitter.com/AP/status/1554734532653248512", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1554665223809896450", "https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1553113196545933314", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/blake-masters-blames-gun-violence-on-black-people-frankly", "https://www.thedailybeast.com/arizona-senate-candidate-blake-masters-views-on-gay-marriage-may-surprise-his-political-master-peter-thiel"] | binary | [["2022-06-06", 0.6], ["2022-06-07", 0.534], ["2022-06-09", 0.547], ["2022-06-10", 0.556], ["2022-06-12", 0.547], ["2022-06-13", 0.403], ["2022-06-15", 0.396], ["2022-06-16", 0.395], ["2022-06-17", 0.4], ["2022-06-18", 0.403], ["2022-06-19", 0.402], ["2022-06-20", 0.402], ["2022-06-22", 0.405], ["2022-06-24", 0.405], 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0.372], ["2022-09-03", 0.368], ["2022-09-05", 0.366], ["2022-09-07", 0.359], ["2022-09-08", 0.354], ["2022-09-09", 0.354], ["2022-09-11", 0.354], ["2022-09-13", 0.35], ["2022-09-15", 0.349], ["2022-09-17", 0.338], ["2022-09-18", 0.338], ["2022-09-19", 0.341], ["2022-09-21", 0.342], ["2022-09-24", 0.341], ["2022-09-25", 0.341], ["2022-09-27", 0.339], ["2022-09-28", 0.337], ["2022-09-29", 0.335], ["2022-09-30", 0.333], ["2022-10-01", 0.331], ["2022-10-03", 0.33], ["2022-10-04", 0.321], ["2022-10-05", 0.319], ["2022-10-07", 0.321], ["2022-10-08", 0.32], ["2022-10-09", 0.319], ["2022-10-11", 0.315], ["2022-10-12", 0.313], ["2022-10-13", 0.317], ["2022-10-15", 0.317], ["2022-10-16", 0.317], ["2022-10-18", 0.318], ["2022-10-19", 0.318], ["2022-10-20", 0.322], ["2022-10-22", 0.339], ["2022-10-24", 0.351], ["2022-10-26", 0.356], ["2022-10-28", 0.364], ["2022-10-29", 0.376], ["2022-10-31", 0.381], ["2022-11-02", 0.387], ["2022-11-03", 0.391], ["2022-11-05", 0.394], ["2022-11-07", 0.396]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11206/ | Blake Gates Masters, born August 5, 1986, is an American attorney, entrepreneur, venture capitalist, author, president of the Thiel Foundation, and former COO of Thiel Capital. Masters co-wrote Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future with Peter Thiel in 2014, based on notes Masters had taken at Stanford Law School in 2012. He is a candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona.
Masters will participate in the Republican primary for this election on August 2, 2022. Masters has been endorsed by former president Donald Trump.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona will take place on November 8, 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Blake Masters is officially certified as the winner of the the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur for any reason | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-06-07 | ["https://meetings.unoda.org/bwc-revcon/biological-weapons-convention-ninth-review-conference-2022", "https://unodaweb-meetings.unoda.org/public/2022-12/2022-1221%20BWC_CONF_IX_9%20adv%20vers.pdf", "https://unodaweb-meetings.unoda.org/public/2022-12/2022-1221%20BWC_CONF_IX_9%20adv%20vers.pdf"] | binary | [["2022-06-09", 0.35], ["2022-06-10", 0.34], ["2022-06-10", 0.412], ["2022-06-10", 0.412], ["2022-06-10", 0.46], ["2022-06-10", 0.443], ["2022-06-11", 0.429], ["2022-06-11", 0.426], ["2022-06-11", 0.423], ["2022-06-11", 0.423], ["2022-06-11", 0.424], ["2022-06-11", 0.428], ["2022-06-11", 0.418], ["2022-06-11", 0.432], ["2022-06-12", 0.419], ["2022-06-12", 0.419], ["2022-06-12", 0.419], ["2022-06-12", 0.403], ["2022-06-12", 0.403], ["2022-06-13", 0.4], ["2022-06-13", 0.416], ["2022-06-14", 0.416], ["2022-06-14", 0.417], ["2022-06-14", 0.407], ["2022-06-14", 0.407], ["2022-06-14", 0.399], ["2022-06-16", 0.399], ["2022-06-16", 0.4], ["2022-06-16", 0.392], ["2022-06-16", 0.392], ["2022-06-16", 0.397], ["2022-06-17", 0.403], ["2022-06-17", 0.385], ["2022-06-18", 0.385], ["2022-06-21", 0.385], ["2022-06-21", 0.369], ["2022-06-21", 0.369], ["2022-06-21", 0.362], ["2022-06-22", 0.367], ["2022-06-23", 0.367], ["2022-06-23", 0.373], ["2022-06-23", 0.373], ["2022-06-28", 0.372], ["2022-06-28", 0.372], ["2022-06-28", 0.372], ["2022-06-30", 0.371], ["2022-07-01", 0.371], ["2022-07-02", 0.376], ["2022-07-03", 0.376], ["2022-07-04", 0.388], ["2022-07-04", 0.39], ["2022-07-04", 0.393], ["2022-07-04", 0.397], ["2022-07-05", 0.397], ["2022-07-06", 0.397], ["2022-07-07", 0.388], ["2022-07-08", 0.386], ["2022-07-10", 0.386], ["2022-07-12", 0.385], ["2022-07-14", 0.385], ["2022-07-15", 0.387], ["2022-07-20", 0.389], ["2022-07-27", 0.389], ["2022-08-01", 0.389], ["2022-08-05", 0.389], ["2022-08-08", 0.391], ["2022-08-11", 0.391], ["2022-08-13", 0.393], ["2022-08-18", 0.391], ["2022-08-30", 0.389], ["2022-08-31", 0.389], ["2022-09-04", 0.389], ["2022-09-06", 0.397], ["2022-09-19", 0.396], ["2022-09-20", 0.396], ["2022-09-20", 0.395], ["2022-09-21", 0.386], ["2022-09-21", 0.386], ["2022-10-02", 0.384], ["2022-10-03", 0.383], ["2022-10-16", 0.383], ["2022-10-25", 0.383], ["2022-10-26", 0.383], ["2022-10-30", 0.384], ["2022-10-31", 0.381], ["2022-10-31", 0.381], ["2022-10-31", 0.359], ["2022-11-01", 0.359], ["2022-11-01", 0.354], ["2022-11-01", 0.354], ["2022-11-01", 0.349], ["2022-11-12", 0.349], ["2022-11-13", 0.348], ["2022-11-13", 0.348], ["2022-11-24", 0.34], ["2022-11-25", 0.339], ["2022-11-30", 0.336], ["2022-11-30", 0.336], ["2022-12-13", 0.335], ["2022-12-15", 0.335], ["2022-12-16", 0.334]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11275/ | The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC "effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons". As of February 2022, 184 states are party to the treaty.
There are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the BWC text, these reviews function to "review the operation of the Convention" and to "take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention." The next Review Conference, the Ninth Review Conference, is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.
In accordance with the need to "take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention," some BWC member states have proposed that there be established processes to systematically review developments in science and technology (S&T) under the convention. According to a UN study on the issue:
To address changes in biology and biotechnology, BWC States Parties have established processes to review developments in science and technology, including annual expert meetings on this topic. However, shortcomings are evident in the current approaches and many BWC States Parties have expressed support for a more systematic review of science and technology under the Convention. This support is further reflected in the results of a voluntary UNIDIR survey of all BWC States Parties in which 39 of the 42 respondents indicated support for a mechanism to systematically review science and technology of relevance to the BWC.
The purpose of this question is to understand whether processes to review developments in S&T will be agreed upon and will occur under the purview of the BWC, given political considerations and the fact that the decision would require unanimity. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if a decision is made at the Ninth Review Conference to begin and fund a dedicated and systematic S&T review process. This review process can take any form and the funding can be of any amount for this to resolve positively | true | 2023-02-28 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-16 | 2022-06-07 | ["https://www.state.gov/u-s-national-statement-at-the-ninth-bwc-review-conference/"] | binary | [["2022-06-09", 0.275], ["2022-06-10", 0.275], ["2022-06-10", 0.385], ["2022-06-10", 0.374], ["2022-06-10", 0.374], ["2022-06-10", 0.437], ["2022-06-10", 0.468], ["2022-06-11", 0.468], ["2022-06-11", 0.452], ["2022-06-11", 0.435], ["2022-06-11", 0.435], ["2022-06-11", 0.426], ["2022-06-11", 0.426], ["2022-06-11", 0.45], ["2022-06-11", 0.451], ["2022-06-12", 0.451], ["2022-06-12", 0.429], ["2022-06-12", 0.429], ["2022-06-12", 0.424], ["2022-06-12", 0.424], ["2022-06-13", 0.459], ["2022-06-14", 0.461], ["2022-06-14", 0.461], ["2022-06-14", 0.461], ["2022-06-14", 0.447], ["2022-06-14", 0.434], ["2022-06-14", 0.448], ["2022-06-16", 0.45], ["2022-06-16", 0.454], ["2022-06-16", 0.454], ["2022-06-16", 0.468], ["2022-06-16", 0.458], ["2022-06-16", 0.469], ["2022-06-17", 0.472], ["2022-06-17", 0.472], ["2022-06-17", 0.475], ["2022-06-17", 0.499], ["2022-06-18", 0.499], ["2022-06-21", 0.499], ["2022-06-21", 0.48], ["2022-06-21", 0.471], ["2022-06-21", 0.471], ["2022-06-21", 0.468], ["2022-06-22", 0.467], ["2022-06-23", 0.467], ["2022-06-23", 0.469], ["2022-06-28", 0.469], ["2022-06-30", 0.472], ["2022-07-01", 0.47], ["2022-07-01", 0.471], ["2022-07-01", 0.472], ["2022-07-03", 0.474], ["2022-07-04", 0.474], ["2022-07-05", 0.474], ["2022-07-07", 0.473], ["2022-07-07", 0.485], ["2022-07-11", 0.485], ["2022-07-12", 0.486], ["2022-07-15", 0.486], ["2022-07-20", 0.486], ["2022-07-26", 0.486], ["2022-07-27", 0.487], ["2022-07-31", 0.487], ["2022-08-01", 0.481], ["2022-08-05", 0.48], ["2022-08-11", 0.481], ["2022-08-13", 0.481], ["2022-08-18", 0.482], ["2022-08-30", 0.482], ["2022-08-31", 0.48], ["2022-09-10", 0.476], ["2022-09-19", 0.476], ["2022-09-20", 0.477], ["2022-09-21", 0.477], ["2022-09-21", 0.471], ["2022-10-02", 0.468], ["2022-10-03", 0.468], ["2022-10-16", 0.467], ["2022-10-25", 0.467], ["2022-10-26", 0.468], ["2022-11-01", 0.468], ["2022-11-05", 0.467], ["2022-11-12", 0.467], ["2022-11-14", 0.468], ["2022-11-24", 0.466], ["2022-11-25", 0.466], ["2022-12-13", 0.463], ["2022-12-14", 0.463], ["2022-12-15", 0.463], ["2022-12-16", 0.462], ["2022-12-16", 0.452], ["2022-12-16", 0.449], ["2022-12-16", 0.449], ["2022-12-16", 0.441]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11276/ | The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC "effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons". As of February 2022, 184 states are party to the treaty.
There are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the BWC text, these reviews function to "review the operation of the Convention" and to "take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention." The next Review Conference, the Ninth Review Conference, is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.
The purpose of this question is to understand the potential for there to be newly funded BWC initiatives that result from the 2022 BWC Review Conference. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes any new commitment of funding (at a value of $1 million USD or more) at least one new program supporting a BWC initiative. If the US does not make any such public announcement between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as No | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-06-08 | ["https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-11-17/karen-bass-first-appearance-as-mayor-elect", "https://results.lavote.gov/#year=2022&election=4300", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/21/bass-caruso-race-tightens-spending-00063018", "https://www.dailynews.com/2022/10/19/election-2022-new-poll-shows-la-mayoral-candidates-in-dead-heat/"] | binary | [["2022-06-10", 0.7], ["2022-06-11", 0.555], ["2022-06-12", 0.587], ["2022-06-12", 0.63], ["2022-06-13", 0.638], ["2022-06-13", 0.567], ["2022-06-14", 0.437], ["2022-06-15", 0.425], ["2022-06-15", 0.421], ["2022-06-16", 0.428], ["2022-06-17", 0.436], ["2022-06-18", 0.419], ["2022-06-19", 0.418], ["2022-06-20", 0.418], ["2022-06-20", 0.418], ["2022-06-21", 0.418], ["2022-06-22", 0.418], ["2022-06-24", 0.418], ["2022-06-25", 0.417], ["2022-06-28", 0.417], ["2022-07-02", 0.411], ["2022-07-02", 0.407], ["2022-07-03", 0.409], ["2022-07-03", 0.409], ["2022-07-04", 0.409], ["2022-07-04", 0.406], ["2022-07-05", 0.41], ["2022-07-07", 0.409], ["2022-07-12", 0.409], ["2022-07-16", 0.409], ["2022-07-17", 0.411], ["2022-07-20", 0.411], ["2022-07-20", 0.411], ["2022-07-26", 0.41], ["2022-07-27", 0.41], ["2022-07-31", 0.41], ["2022-08-05", 0.408], ["2022-08-10", 0.408], ["2022-08-13", 0.408], ["2022-08-14", 0.397], ["2022-08-15", 0.39], ["2022-08-16", 0.39], ["2022-08-16", 0.412], ["2022-08-17", 0.41], ["2022-08-18", 0.41], ["2022-08-19", 0.409], ["2022-08-25", 0.408], ["2022-08-26", 0.409], ["2022-08-31", 0.409], ["2022-09-05", 0.399], ["2022-09-06", 0.399], ["2022-09-07", 0.396], ["2022-09-08", 0.396], ["2022-09-14", 0.395], ["2022-09-17", 0.39], ["2022-09-18", 0.387], ["2022-09-18", 0.384], ["2022-09-20", 0.383], ["2022-09-23", 0.382], ["2022-09-27", 0.382], ["2022-09-27", 0.385], ["2022-09-30", 0.381], ["2022-10-01", 0.376], ["2022-10-02", 0.376], ["2022-10-03", 0.375], ["2022-10-04", 0.376], ["2022-10-07", 0.355], ["2022-10-07", 0.354], ["2022-10-08", 0.354], ["2022-10-08", 0.354], ["2022-10-10", 0.351], ["2022-10-11", 0.35], ["2022-10-12", 0.347], ["2022-10-12", 0.346], ["2022-10-14", 0.346], ["2022-10-16", 0.346], ["2022-10-16", 0.346], ["2022-10-17", 0.341], ["2022-10-18", 0.341], ["2022-10-20", 0.337], ["2022-10-20", 0.34], ["2022-10-21", 0.339], ["2022-10-22", 0.339], ["2022-10-22", 0.338], ["2022-10-25", 0.337], ["2022-10-26", 0.336], ["2022-10-26", 0.336], ["2022-10-27", 0.336], ["2022-10-27", 0.345], ["2022-10-28", 0.345], ["2022-10-29", 0.344], ["2022-10-30", 0.344], ["2022-10-31", 0.344], ["2022-10-31", 0.342], ["2022-11-01", 0.342], ["2022-11-04", 0.342], ["2022-11-05", 0.342], ["2022-11-05", 0.348], ["2022-11-06", 0.349], ["2022-11-07", 0.353], ["2022-11-07", 0.354]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11279/ | Rick Joseph Caruso, born January 7, 1959, is an American billionaire entrepreneur. He is the founder and CEO of Caruso, an American real-estate company. Currently serving as chair of the board of trustees at the University of Southern California, Caruso has been president of the Los Angeles Police Commission and a member of the Board of Water and Power Commissioners.
A former member of the Republican Party, Caruso changed his affiliation to the Democratic Party when he became a candidate in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election.
On June 8th 2022, the Associated Press reported that U.S. Rep. Karen Bass and billionaire Rick Caruso would advance to a November 8 runoff in the Los Angeles mayor’s race after no one in the primary earned 50% of the votes. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively in the event that Rick Caruso is officially declared the winner of the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election. The question resolves negatively if that does not occur for any reason | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-06-08 | ["https://twitter.com/MikenzieFrost/status/1590148792648859648", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11553/doug-mastriano-elected-pa-governor-in-2022/", "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/147t2k8bzqJa4iJXZZfhMf_dA9ZLq2RCQ/edit#gid=988311946", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/maryland/", "https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1550678088803094528", "https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2022-07-19/state/maryland/"] | binary | [["2022-06-13", 0.18], ["2022-06-14", 0.356], ["2022-06-15", 0.41], ["2022-06-16", 0.393], ["2022-06-17", 0.408], ["2022-06-18", 0.408], ["2022-06-19", 0.414], ["2022-06-20", 0.417], ["2022-06-21", 0.417], ["2022-06-22", 0.415], ["2022-06-23", 0.414], ["2022-06-24", 0.401], ["2022-06-25", 0.407], ["2022-06-28", 0.407], ["2022-06-30", 0.407], ["2022-07-04", 0.387], ["2022-07-05", 0.387], ["2022-07-06", 0.387], ["2022-07-07", 0.348], ["2022-07-08", 0.359], ["2022-07-09", 0.353], ["2022-07-10", 0.337], ["2022-07-11", 0.335], ["2022-07-12", 0.332], ["2022-07-13", 0.333], ["2022-07-15", 0.333], ["2022-07-17", 0.337], ["2022-07-20", 0.322], ["2022-07-21", 0.32], ["2022-07-21", 0.306], ["2022-07-22", 0.288], ["2022-07-23", 0.268], ["2022-07-24", 0.244], ["2022-07-25", 0.218], ["2022-07-26", 0.208], ["2022-07-28", 0.219], ["2022-07-29", 0.219], ["2022-07-30", 0.213], ["2022-07-31", 0.211], ["2022-08-02", 0.209], ["2022-08-02", 0.207], ["2022-08-05", 0.199], ["2022-08-06", 0.196], ["2022-08-06", 0.196], ["2022-08-10", 0.194], ["2022-08-11", 0.183], ["2022-08-14", 0.183], ["2022-08-16", 0.18], ["2022-08-18", 0.18], ["2022-08-21", 0.18], ["2022-08-22", 0.179], ["2022-08-25", 0.175], ["2022-08-25", 0.173], ["2022-08-31", 0.173], ["2022-09-01", 0.173], ["2022-09-08", 0.173], ["2022-09-09", 0.173], ["2022-09-12", 0.164], ["2022-09-13", 0.14], ["2022-09-14", 0.142], ["2022-09-15", 0.136], ["2022-09-16", 0.137], ["2022-09-17", 0.136], ["2022-09-17", 0.134], ["2022-09-22", 0.132], ["2022-09-24", 0.132], ["2022-09-25", 0.13], ["2022-09-26", 0.125], ["2022-09-27", 0.127], ["2022-09-28", 0.128], ["2022-09-29", 0.118], ["2022-10-01", 0.117], ["2022-10-02", 0.111], ["2022-10-03", 0.111], ["2022-10-04", 0.111], ["2022-10-04", 0.109], ["2022-10-09", 0.108], ["2022-10-10", 0.104], ["2022-10-11", 0.103], ["2022-10-12", 0.102], ["2022-10-16", 0.102], ["2022-10-17", 0.102], ["2022-10-18", 0.101], ["2022-10-20", 0.1], ["2022-10-20", 0.1], ["2022-10-22", 0.097], ["2022-10-23", 0.097], ["2022-10-25", 0.097], ["2022-10-26", 0.093], ["2022-10-26", 0.093], ["2022-10-27", 0.092], ["2022-10-29", 0.09], ["2022-10-30", 0.09], ["2022-10-31", 0.089], ["2022-10-31", 0.089], ["2022-11-01", 0.089], ["2022-11-02", 0.088], ["2022-11-04", 0.087], ["2022-11-06", 0.087], ["2022-11-07", 0.067], ["2022-11-07", 0.065]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11295/ | Republican Larry Hogan has served as governor of Maryland since 2014 and is ineligible to run for a third term. While Hogan remains very popular, various polling outlets have rated the race as either "Leans" or "Likely" Democratic as of May 2022.
Polling published on June 5 indicates incumbent Comptroller Peter Franchot (20%), former non-profit CEO Wes Moore (15%) and former US Labor Secretary and DNC chairman Tom Perez (12%) as the leading Democratic candidates, with former State Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz (26%) leading State Delegate Dan Cox (21%) in the GOP primary. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if the Republican candidate for governor is declared the winner of the election, which takes place on November 8, 2022, by at least two credible media sources | true | 2022-11-07 | Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-06-09 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/us/politics/abbott-wins-texas-gov.html", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/texas/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/beto-orourke-postpones-texas-campaign-events-infection?utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter", "https://electionbettingodds.com/GovernorsMap2022.html"] | binary | [["2022-06-11", 0.15], ["2022-06-12", 0.344], ["2022-06-12", 0.312], ["2022-06-13", 0.301], ["2022-06-14", 0.287], ["2022-06-15", 0.293], ["2022-06-16", 0.283], ["2022-06-17", 0.281], ["2022-06-18", 0.275], ["2022-06-19", 0.276], ["2022-06-19", 0.274], ["2022-06-21", 0.274], ["2022-06-22", 0.273], ["2022-06-24", 0.273], ["2022-06-25", 0.266], ["2022-06-28", 0.266], ["2022-06-30", 0.264], ["2022-07-01", 0.227], ["2022-07-02", 0.227], ["2022-07-03", 0.227], ["2022-07-04", 0.208], ["2022-07-05", 0.196], ["2022-07-06", 0.196], ["2022-07-07", 0.186], ["2022-07-08", 0.182], ["2022-07-09", 0.177], ["2022-07-11", 0.172], ["2022-07-12", 0.172], ["2022-07-13", 0.172], ["2022-07-15", 0.171], ["2022-07-17", 0.169], ["2022-07-17", 0.173], ["2022-07-20", 0.173], ["2022-07-21", 0.165], ["2022-07-22", 0.165], ["2022-07-24", 0.15], ["2022-07-25", 0.145], ["2022-07-26", 0.142], ["2022-07-27", 0.135], ["2022-07-28", 0.135], ["2022-07-29", 0.132], ["2022-07-31", 0.132], ["2022-07-31", 0.132], ["2022-08-03", 0.131], ["2022-08-04", 0.13], ["2022-08-05", 0.127], ["2022-08-07", 0.127], ["2022-08-10", 0.127], ["2022-08-10", 0.126], ["2022-08-11", 0.126], ["2022-08-12", 0.125], ["2022-08-14", 0.122], ["2022-08-17", 0.118], ["2022-08-18", 0.118], ["2022-08-19", 0.118], ["2022-08-22", 0.121], ["2022-08-25", 0.12], ["2022-08-25", 0.119], ["2022-08-28", 0.118], ["2022-08-29", 0.113], ["2022-08-29", 0.109], ["2022-08-31", 0.111], ["2022-09-02", 0.111], ["2022-09-03", 0.115], ["2022-09-08", 0.115], ["2022-09-13", 0.115], ["2022-09-16", 0.113], ["2022-09-17", 0.112], ["2022-09-22", 0.111], ["2022-09-24", 0.111], ["2022-09-25", 0.109], ["2022-09-27", 0.109], ["2022-09-27", 0.109], ["2022-09-28", 0.109], ["2022-10-01", 0.109], ["2022-10-04", 0.107], ["2022-10-05", 0.105], ["2022-10-09", 0.104], ["2022-10-13", 0.104], ["2022-10-16", 0.105], ["2022-10-17", 0.104], ["2022-10-18", 0.102], ["2022-10-20", 0.102], ["2022-10-21", 0.102], ["2022-10-23", 0.102], ["2022-10-23", 0.102], ["2022-10-24", 0.104], ["2022-10-26", 0.101], ["2022-10-26", 0.1], ["2022-10-27", 0.099], ["2022-10-28", 0.097], ["2022-10-29", 0.095], ["2022-10-30", 0.092], ["2022-10-31", 0.09], ["2022-11-01", 0.09], ["2022-11-02", 0.088], ["2022-11-03", 0.087], ["2022-11-05", 0.081], ["2022-11-06", 0.079], ["2022-11-07", 0.057], ["2022-11-07", 0.057]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11301/ | Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke born September 26, 1972, is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district from 2013 to 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, O'Rourke was a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. He was not elected in either race.
O'Rourke is a candidate for the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election, challenging incumbent governor Greg Abbott, who is seeking a third term. O'Rourke won the Democratic nomination for governor on March 1, 2022 with over 90% of the primary vote.
The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if Beto O'Rourke is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election. if this does not occur for any reason, this question will resolve as No | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-04 | 2022-06-14 | ["https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx", "https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx"] | binary | [["2022-06-16", 0.66], ["2022-06-16", 0.66], ["2022-06-17", 0.82], ["2022-06-17", 0.827], ["2022-06-17", 0.825], ["2022-06-17", 0.82], ["2022-06-17", 0.82], ["2022-06-17", 0.81], ["2022-06-17", 0.81], ["2022-06-17", 0.682], ["2022-06-17", 0.682], ["2022-06-17", 0.707], ["2022-06-17", 0.707], ["2022-06-18", 0.723], ["2022-06-18", 0.684], ["2022-06-18", 0.678], ["2022-06-18", 0.691], ["2022-06-18", 0.691], ["2022-06-19", 0.699], ["2022-06-19", 0.692], ["2022-06-20", 0.676], ["2022-06-20", 0.674], ["2022-06-20", 0.674], ["2022-06-20", 0.677], ["2022-06-20", 0.648], ["2022-06-20", 0.653], ["2022-06-20", 0.654], ["2022-06-21", 0.653], ["2022-06-21", 0.653], ["2022-06-21", 0.658], ["2022-06-21", 0.631], ["2022-06-21", 0.633], ["2022-06-21", 0.613], ["2022-06-22", 0.613], ["2022-06-22", 0.625], ["2022-06-22", 0.629], ["2022-06-22", 0.629], ["2022-06-22", 0.633], ["2022-06-23", 0.644], ["2022-06-24", 0.644], ["2022-06-28", 0.647], ["2022-07-05", 0.647], ["2022-07-10", 0.647], ["2022-07-12", 0.651], ["2022-07-12", 0.651], ["2022-07-13", 0.651], ["2022-07-14", 0.657], ["2022-07-15", 0.657], ["2022-07-15", 0.664], ["2022-07-20", 0.664], ["2022-07-20", 0.66], ["2022-07-20", 0.667], ["2022-07-25", 0.671], ["2022-07-26", 0.671], ["2022-07-27", 0.671], ["2022-07-27", 0.671], ["2022-08-02", 0.672], ["2022-08-02", 0.677], ["2022-08-04", 0.677]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11346/ | In the US, a public health emergency (PHE) can be declared in response to a disease/disorder, significant infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack:
The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.
Here, we are specifically asking about a PHE being declared in response to a significant outbreak of infectious disease or a bioterrorist attack. Since August 2005, there have been three such unique declarations: H1N1 Flu, Zika, and COVID-19.
The purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a new PHE being declared at some point in the coming years, which is important for informing near-term pandemic preparedness efforts. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2032, the US declares a new public health emergency due to an outbreak of infectious disease or a bioterrorist attack.
For this question, an event will be considered a "bioterrorist attack" or an "infectious disease outbreak" solely if the US government describes it as such in relation to the PHE declaration | true | 2025-01-03 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-14", 0.3], ["2022-06-15", 0.185], ["2022-06-16", 0.179], ["2022-06-16", 0.174], ["2022-06-17", 0.201], ["2022-06-18", 0.202], ["2022-06-19", 0.204], ["2022-06-19", 0.211], ["2022-06-20", 0.213], ["2022-06-21", 0.24], ["2022-06-22", 0.24], ["2022-06-23", 0.241], ["2022-06-23", 0.244], ["2022-06-24", 0.249], ["2022-06-28", 0.249], ["2022-06-29", 0.247], ["2022-06-29", 0.243], ["2022-07-03", 0.243], ["2022-07-05", 0.243], ["2022-07-05", 0.243], ["2022-07-06", 0.257], ["2022-07-06", 0.269], ["2022-07-07", 0.257], ["2022-07-08", 0.286], ["2022-07-08", 0.294], ["2022-07-09", 0.332], ["2022-07-10", 0.334], ["2022-07-11", 0.354], ["2022-07-11", 0.353], ["2022-07-12", 0.383], ["2022-07-13", 0.381], ["2022-07-14", 0.361], ["2022-07-14", 0.341], ["2022-07-15", 0.32], ["2022-07-16", 0.333], ["2022-07-16", 0.351], ["2022-07-17", 0.369], ["2022-07-17", 0.369], ["2022-07-18", 0.371], ["2022-07-19", 0.394], ["2022-07-20", 0.396], ["2022-07-20", 0.402], ["2022-07-21", 0.403], ["2022-07-21", 0.393], ["2022-07-22", 0.389], ["2022-07-23", 0.385], ["2022-07-24", 0.38], ["2022-07-24", 0.38], ["2022-07-25", 0.379], ["2022-07-25", 0.378], ["2022-07-26", 0.371], ["2022-07-27", 0.368], ["2022-07-27", 0.361], ["2022-07-28", 0.357], ["2022-07-29", 0.351], ["2022-07-30", 0.334], ["2022-07-30", 0.321], ["2022-07-31", 0.315], ["2022-08-01", 0.31], ["2022-08-01", 0.306], ["2022-08-02", 0.294], ["2022-08-03", 0.276], ["2022-08-04", 0.262], ["2022-08-04", 0.261], ["2022-08-05", 0.26], ["2022-08-06", 0.255], ["2022-08-06", 0.247], ["2022-08-07", 0.244], ["2022-08-08", 0.244], ["2022-08-10", 0.242], ["2022-08-11", 0.242], ["2022-08-11", 0.241], ["2022-08-12", 0.24], ["2022-08-13", 0.24], ["2022-08-14", 0.239], ["2022-08-15", 0.238], ["2022-08-15", 0.239], ["2022-08-16", 0.238], ["2022-08-17", 0.238], ["2022-08-17", 0.236], ["2022-08-18", 0.235], ["2022-08-18", 0.229], ["2022-08-19", 0.228], ["2022-08-20", 0.227], ["2022-08-20", 0.223], ["2022-08-21", 0.223], ["2022-08-22", 0.221], ["2022-08-23", 0.221], ["2022-08-24", 0.221], ["2022-08-25", 0.221], ["2022-08-25", 0.22], ["2022-08-26", 0.218], ["2022-08-29", 0.217], ["2022-08-30", 0.216], ["2022-08-31", 0.216], ["2022-08-31", 0.213], ["2022-09-01", 0.211], ["2022-09-02", 0.211], ["2022-09-03", 0.208], ["2022-09-04", 0.207], ["2022-09-05", 0.181]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11360/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Rishi Sunak win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-14", 0.01], ["2022-06-14", 0.058], ["2022-06-15", 0.056], ["2022-06-15", 0.078], ["2022-06-15", 0.078], ["2022-06-16", 0.083], ["2022-06-16", 0.083], ["2022-06-16", 0.083], ["2022-06-18", 0.082], ["2022-06-19", 0.081], ["2022-06-21", 0.081], ["2022-06-22", 0.116], ["2022-06-23", 0.117], ["2022-06-23", 0.119], ["2022-06-28", 0.119], ["2022-06-29", 0.116], ["2022-06-29", 0.112], ["2022-06-29", 0.108], ["2022-06-30", 0.107], ["2022-07-05", 0.107], ["2022-07-05", 0.104], ["2022-07-06", 0.109], ["2022-07-06", 0.108], ["2022-07-06", 0.106], ["2022-07-06", 0.112], ["2022-07-06", 0.123], ["2022-07-07", 0.125], ["2022-07-07", 0.125], ["2022-07-07", 0.127], ["2022-07-07", 0.127], ["2022-07-07", 0.11], ["2022-07-08", 0.107], ["2022-07-08", 0.104], ["2022-07-08", 0.104], ["2022-07-08", 0.102], ["2022-07-08", 0.095], ["2022-07-09", 0.092], ["2022-07-09", 0.092], ["2022-07-09", 0.088], ["2022-07-09", 0.086], ["2022-07-10", 0.079], ["2022-07-10", 0.077], ["2022-07-10", 0.076], ["2022-07-10", 0.069], ["2022-07-11", 0.069], ["2022-07-11", 0.066], ["2022-07-11", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.064], ["2022-07-11", 0.054], ["2022-07-12", 0.053], ["2022-07-12", 0.051], ["2022-07-13", 0.049], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-13", 0.045], ["2022-07-14", 0.044], ["2022-07-14", 0.043], ["2022-07-14", 0.043], ["2022-07-14", 0.041], ["2022-07-15", 0.041], ["2022-07-15", 0.04], ["2022-07-15", 0.04], ["2022-07-15", 0.039], ["2022-07-15", 0.038], ["2022-07-16", 0.038], ["2022-07-18", 0.037], ["2022-07-19", 0.037], ["2022-07-20", 0.037], ["2022-07-20", 0.037], ["2022-07-20", 0.037], ["2022-07-20", 0.035], ["2022-07-21", 0.035], ["2022-07-23", 0.035], ["2022-07-24", 0.035], ["2022-07-26", 0.034], ["2022-07-26", 0.034], ["2022-07-26", 0.034], ["2022-07-27", 0.033], ["2022-07-29", 0.033], ["2022-07-29", 0.035], ["2022-07-31", 0.034], ["2022-08-01", 0.033], ["2022-08-02", 0.033], ["2022-08-02", 0.029], ["2022-08-02", 0.029], ["2022-08-03", 0.028], ["2022-08-03", 0.028], ["2022-08-03", 0.028], ["2022-08-03", 0.027], ["2022-08-03", 0.026], ["2022-08-05", 0.026], ["2022-08-07", 0.026], ["2022-08-07", 0.026], ["2022-08-10", 0.026], ["2022-08-12", 0.026], ["2022-08-18", 0.026], ["2022-08-25", 0.026], ["2022-08-30", 0.025], ["2022-08-31", 0.025], ["2022-09-04", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.025], ["2022-09-05", 0.025]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11361/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Michael Gove win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-14", 0.14], ["2022-06-14", 0.184], ["2022-06-15", 0.184], ["2022-06-15", 0.179], ["2022-06-16", 0.179], ["2022-06-16", 0.178], ["2022-06-16", 0.178], ["2022-06-18", 0.169], ["2022-06-19", 0.172], ["2022-06-19", 0.17], ["2022-06-20", 0.17], ["2022-06-21", 0.17], ["2022-06-22", 0.196], ["2022-06-23", 0.197], ["2022-06-23", 0.199], ["2022-06-28", 0.199], ["2022-06-29", 0.196], ["2022-06-29", 0.196], ["2022-06-30", 0.186], ["2022-07-04", 0.184], ["2022-07-05", 0.184], ["2022-07-05", 0.179], ["2022-07-05", 0.192], ["2022-07-06", 0.198], ["2022-07-06", 0.198], ["2022-07-06", 0.197], ["2022-07-07", 0.195], ["2022-07-07", 0.196], ["2022-07-07", 0.196], ["2022-07-07", 0.17], ["2022-07-07", 0.171], ["2022-07-08", 0.163], ["2022-07-08", 0.161], ["2022-07-08", 0.152], ["2022-07-09", 0.147], ["2022-07-09", 0.142], ["2022-07-09", 0.137], ["2022-07-09", 0.137], ["2022-07-10", 0.136], ["2022-07-10", 0.133], ["2022-07-10", 0.128], ["2022-07-10", 0.125], ["2022-07-11", 0.122], ["2022-07-11", 0.122], ["2022-07-11", 0.114], ["2022-07-11", 0.108], ["2022-07-11", 0.1], ["2022-07-12", 0.099], ["2022-07-12", 0.094], ["2022-07-12", 0.089], ["2022-07-12", 0.094], ["2022-07-13", 0.094], ["2022-07-13", 0.081], ["2022-07-13", 0.078], ["2022-07-14", 0.078], ["2022-07-14", 0.078], ["2022-07-14", 0.069], ["2022-07-14", 0.067], ["2022-07-15", 0.067], ["2022-07-15", 0.065], ["2022-07-15", 0.063], ["2022-07-15", 0.058], ["2022-07-16", 0.058], ["2022-07-17", 0.057], ["2022-07-18", 0.057], ["2022-07-18", 0.056], ["2022-07-19", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.055], ["2022-07-20", 0.053], ["2022-07-21", 0.053], ["2022-07-22", 0.051], ["2022-07-23", 0.05], ["2022-07-24", 0.049], ["2022-07-26", 0.049], ["2022-07-26", 0.048], ["2022-07-26", 0.047], ["2022-07-27", 0.047], ["2022-07-29", 0.048], ["2022-07-31", 0.047], ["2022-08-02", 0.047], ["2022-08-02", 0.047], ["2022-08-02", 0.045], ["2022-08-03", 0.044], ["2022-08-03", 0.043], ["2022-08-03", 0.043], ["2022-08-03", 0.04], ["2022-08-05", 0.039], ["2022-08-05", 0.039], ["2022-08-07", 0.039], ["2022-08-07", 0.039], ["2022-08-10", 0.038], ["2022-08-12", 0.038], ["2022-08-18", 0.038], ["2022-08-25", 0.038], ["2022-08-31", 0.038], ["2022-09-04", 0.036], ["2022-09-04", 0.031], ["2022-09-05", 0.031], ["2022-09-05", 0.031]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11362/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Jeremy Hunt win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-14", 0.05], ["2022-06-14", 0.104], ["2022-06-15", 0.109], ["2022-06-15", 0.102], ["2022-06-15", 0.102], ["2022-06-16", 0.103], ["2022-06-16", 0.102], ["2022-06-16", 0.099], ["2022-06-18", 0.095], ["2022-06-19", 0.097], ["2022-06-19", 0.097], ["2022-06-21", 0.109], ["2022-06-22", 0.109], ["2022-06-28", 0.109], ["2022-06-29", 0.107], ["2022-06-29", 0.102], ["2022-06-29", 0.118], ["2022-07-04", 0.118], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-05", 0.129], ["2022-07-05", 0.13], ["2022-07-06", 0.117], ["2022-07-06", 0.115], ["2022-07-06", 0.118], ["2022-07-06", 0.119], ["2022-07-06", 0.125], ["2022-07-07", 0.125], ["2022-07-07", 0.123], ["2022-07-07", 0.123], ["2022-07-07", 0.114], ["2022-07-08", 0.112], ["2022-07-08", 0.11], ["2022-07-08", 0.11], ["2022-07-08", 0.112], ["2022-07-08", 0.105], ["2022-07-09", 0.104], ["2022-07-09", 0.104], ["2022-07-09", 0.098], ["2022-07-09", 0.098], ["2022-07-10", 0.09], ["2022-07-10", 0.09], ["2022-07-10", 0.088], ["2022-07-10", 0.088], ["2022-07-10", 0.086], ["2022-07-11", 0.086], ["2022-07-11", 0.085], ["2022-07-11", 0.082], ["2022-07-12", 0.082], ["2022-07-12", 0.077], ["2022-07-12", 0.067], ["2022-07-12", 0.06], ["2022-07-13", 0.06], ["2022-07-13", 0.056], ["2022-07-13", 0.055], ["2022-07-14", 0.054], ["2022-07-14", 0.053], ["2022-07-14", 0.053], ["2022-07-14", 0.052], ["2022-07-14", 0.051], ["2022-07-15", 0.049], ["2022-07-15", 0.049], ["2022-07-15", 0.048], ["2022-07-15", 0.047], ["2022-07-15", 0.044], ["2022-07-16", 0.044], ["2022-07-17", 0.043], ["2022-07-18", 0.043], ["2022-07-18", 0.043], ["2022-07-19", 0.042], ["2022-07-20", 0.042], ["2022-07-20", 0.038], ["2022-07-20", 0.038], ["2022-07-20", 0.037], ["2022-07-21", 0.037], ["2022-07-22", 0.036], ["2022-07-23", 0.035], ["2022-07-24", 0.03], ["2022-07-26", 0.029], ["2022-07-26", 0.029], ["2022-07-26", 0.029], ["2022-07-27", 0.029], ["2022-07-31", 0.032], ["2022-08-02", 0.031], ["2022-08-02", 0.027], ["2022-08-02", 0.027], ["2022-08-03", 0.026], ["2022-08-03", 0.026], ["2022-08-03", 0.026], ["2022-08-03", 0.026], ["2022-08-05", 0.024], ["2022-08-07", 0.024], ["2022-08-07", 0.024], ["2022-08-10", 0.023], ["2022-08-12", 0.023], ["2022-08-18", 0.021], ["2022-08-25", 0.021], ["2022-08-31", 0.023], ["2022-09-04", 0.023], ["2022-09-04", 0.023], ["2022-09-05", 0.022], ["2022-09-05", 0.022]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11363/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Priti Patel win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-14", 0.61], ["2022-06-14", 0.287], ["2022-06-15", 0.259], ["2022-06-15", 0.235], ["2022-06-15", 0.23], ["2022-06-16", 0.228], ["2022-06-16", 0.224], ["2022-06-16", 0.225], ["2022-06-16", 0.212], ["2022-06-16", 0.208], ["2022-06-17", 0.208], ["2022-06-17", 0.206], ["2022-06-19", 0.202], ["2022-06-19", 0.185], ["2022-06-20", 0.185], ["2022-06-20", 0.18], ["2022-06-21", 0.181], ["2022-06-21", 0.215], ["2022-06-22", 0.217], ["2022-06-28", 0.217], ["2022-06-29", 0.208], ["2022-06-29", 0.208], ["2022-06-29", 0.198], ["2022-07-05", 0.211], ["2022-07-05", 0.208], ["2022-07-05", 0.19], ["2022-07-06", 0.182], ["2022-07-06", 0.175], ["2022-07-06", 0.168], ["2022-07-06", 0.164], ["2022-07-07", 0.163], ["2022-07-07", 0.163], ["2022-07-07", 0.155], ["2022-07-07", 0.114], ["2022-07-07", 0.114], ["2022-07-08", 0.11], ["2022-07-08", 0.107], ["2022-07-08", 0.104], ["2022-07-08", 0.093], ["2022-07-09", 0.093], ["2022-07-09", 0.088], ["2022-07-09", 0.088], ["2022-07-10", 0.086], ["2022-07-10", 0.083], ["2022-07-10", 0.083], ["2022-07-10", 0.081], ["2022-07-10", 0.077], ["2022-07-11", 0.076], ["2022-07-11", 0.076], ["2022-07-11", 0.074], ["2022-07-11", 0.074], ["2022-07-12", 0.074], ["2022-07-12", 0.071], ["2022-07-13", 0.071], ["2022-07-13", 0.07], ["2022-07-13", 0.062], ["2022-07-13", 0.061], ["2022-07-14", 0.06], ["2022-07-14", 0.059], ["2022-07-14", 0.059], ["2022-07-15", 0.059], ["2022-07-15", 0.058], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-15", 0.055], ["2022-07-16", 0.054], ["2022-07-16", 0.053], ["2022-07-17", 0.053], ["2022-07-18", 0.052], ["2022-07-19", 0.052], ["2022-07-20", 0.051], ["2022-07-20", 0.051], ["2022-07-20", 0.05], ["2022-07-20", 0.049], ["2022-07-23", 0.049], ["2022-07-24", 0.043], ["2022-07-26", 0.043], ["2022-07-26", 0.042], ["2022-07-26", 0.041], ["2022-07-27", 0.041], ["2022-07-31", 0.041], ["2022-08-02", 0.041], ["2022-08-02", 0.042], ["2022-08-03", 0.041], ["2022-08-03", 0.041], ["2022-08-03", 0.04], ["2022-08-03", 0.04], ["2022-08-03", 0.04], ["2022-08-05", 0.04], ["2022-08-07", 0.039], ["2022-08-07", 0.039], ["2022-08-10", 0.039], ["2022-08-12", 0.039], ["2022-08-18", 0.039], ["2022-08-25", 0.039], ["2022-08-31", 0.038], ["2022-08-31", 0.038], ["2022-09-03", 0.038], ["2022-09-03", 0.038], ["2022-09-04", 0.038], ["2022-09-05", 0.037], ["2022-09-05", 0.035]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11364/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Boris Johnson win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-14", 0.01], ["2022-06-14", 0.088], ["2022-06-15", 0.091], ["2022-06-15", 0.104], ["2022-06-16", 0.104], ["2022-06-16", 0.104], ["2022-06-16", 0.101], ["2022-06-17", 0.095], ["2022-06-17", 0.093], ["2022-06-18", 0.093], ["2022-06-19", 0.092], ["2022-06-20", 0.092], ["2022-06-21", 0.092], ["2022-06-21", 0.092], ["2022-06-22", 0.129], ["2022-06-28", 0.129], ["2022-06-29", 0.125], ["2022-06-29", 0.121], ["2022-06-30", 0.117], ["2022-07-04", 0.115], ["2022-07-05", 0.115], ["2022-07-05", 0.111], ["2022-07-05", 0.127], ["2022-07-06", 0.131], ["2022-07-06", 0.134], ["2022-07-06", 0.145], ["2022-07-06", 0.145], ["2022-07-07", 0.138], ["2022-07-07", 0.14], ["2022-07-07", 0.135], ["2022-07-07", 0.136], ["2022-07-08", 0.141], ["2022-07-08", 0.142], ["2022-07-08", 0.128], ["2022-07-09", 0.134], ["2022-07-09", 0.132], ["2022-07-09", 0.128], ["2022-07-10", 0.124], ["2022-07-10", 0.117], ["2022-07-10", 0.117], ["2022-07-10", 0.117], ["2022-07-11", 0.114], ["2022-07-11", 0.109], ["2022-07-11", 0.108], ["2022-07-12", 0.093], ["2022-07-12", 0.093], ["2022-07-12", 0.089], ["2022-07-12", 0.089], ["2022-07-13", 0.092], ["2022-07-13", 0.092], ["2022-07-13", 0.089], ["2022-07-13", 0.077], ["2022-07-14", 0.071], ["2022-07-14", 0.069], ["2022-07-14", 0.07], ["2022-07-14", 0.06], ["2022-07-15", 0.053], ["2022-07-15", 0.053], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-15", 0.05], ["2022-07-16", 0.057], ["2022-07-16", 0.058], ["2022-07-16", 0.058], ["2022-07-17", 0.058], ["2022-07-17", 0.059], ["2022-07-18", 0.057], ["2022-07-18", 0.057], ["2022-07-18", 0.043], ["2022-07-19", 0.043], ["2022-07-19", 0.042], ["2022-07-19", 0.042], ["2022-07-20", 0.041], ["2022-07-20", 0.041], ["2022-07-20", 0.038], ["2022-07-22", 0.038], ["2022-07-23", 0.038], ["2022-07-24", 0.038], ["2022-07-26", 0.036], ["2022-07-26", 0.036], ["2022-07-26", 0.035], ["2022-07-27", 0.036], ["2022-07-31", 0.036], ["2022-08-01", 0.035], ["2022-08-01", 0.034], ["2022-08-02", 0.034], ["2022-08-02", 0.031], ["2022-08-02", 0.03], ["2022-08-03", 0.03], ["2022-08-03", 0.029], ["2022-08-03", 0.029], ["2022-08-03", 0.029], ["2022-08-05", 0.028], ["2022-08-07", 0.028], ["2022-08-07", 0.027], ["2022-08-10", 0.027], ["2022-08-12", 0.027], ["2022-08-18", 0.027], ["2022-08-25", 0.027], ["2022-08-31", 0.027], ["2022-09-05", 0.027], ["2022-09-05", 0.026]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11365/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Tom Tugendhat win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-14", 0.155], ["2022-06-15", 0.229], ["2022-06-16", 0.226], ["2022-06-16", 0.238], ["2022-06-18", 0.238], ["2022-06-19", 0.239], ["2022-06-19", 0.246], ["2022-06-20", 0.258], ["2022-06-21", 0.259], ["2022-06-22", 0.268], ["2022-06-23", 0.269], ["2022-06-24", 0.278], ["2022-06-28", 0.278], ["2022-06-29", 0.278], ["2022-06-30", 0.272], ["2022-07-04", 0.27], ["2022-07-05", 0.27], ["2022-07-05", 0.265], ["2022-07-06", 0.228], ["2022-07-06", 0.254], ["2022-07-07", 0.246], ["2022-07-08", 0.236], ["2022-07-09", 0.235], ["2022-07-09", 0.225], ["2022-07-10", 0.219], ["2022-07-11", 0.232], ["2022-07-12", 0.249], ["2022-07-13", 0.244], ["2022-07-13", 0.229], ["2022-07-14", 0.219], ["2022-07-15", 0.239], ["2022-07-15", 0.253], ["2022-07-16", 0.237], ["2022-07-17", 0.231], ["2022-07-17", 0.232], ["2022-07-18", 0.231], ["2022-07-19", 0.251], ["2022-07-19", 0.277], ["2022-07-20", 0.309], ["2022-07-20", 0.443], ["2022-07-21", 0.484], ["2022-07-22", 0.513], ["2022-07-22", 0.529], ["2022-07-23", 0.538], ["2022-07-24", 0.548], ["2022-07-24", 0.549], ["2022-07-25", 0.555], ["2022-07-25", 0.558], ["2022-07-26", 0.566], ["2022-07-27", 0.58], ["2022-07-28", 0.584], ["2022-07-28", 0.593], ["2022-07-29", 0.605], ["2022-07-30", 0.633], ["2022-07-31", 0.642], ["2022-08-01", 0.652], ["2022-08-02", 0.673], ["2022-08-02", 0.679], ["2022-08-03", 0.702], ["2022-08-04", 0.717], ["2022-08-05", 0.718], ["2022-08-05", 0.723], ["2022-08-06", 0.732], ["2022-08-07", 0.733], ["2022-08-07", 0.737], ["2022-08-08", 0.737], ["2022-08-08", 0.74], ["2022-08-10", 0.742], ["2022-08-10", 0.743], ["2022-08-11", 0.745], ["2022-08-12", 0.746], ["2022-08-12", 0.746], ["2022-08-13", 0.746], ["2022-08-14", 0.746], ["2022-08-15", 0.747], ["2022-08-15", 0.746], ["2022-08-16", 0.748], ["2022-08-17", 0.751], ["2022-08-18", 0.755], ["2022-08-19", 0.761], ["2022-08-19", 0.762], ["2022-08-20", 0.763], ["2022-08-20", 0.767], ["2022-08-21", 0.767], ["2022-08-22", 0.769], ["2022-08-23", 0.769], ["2022-08-24", 0.769], ["2022-08-24", 0.769], ["2022-08-25", 0.769], ["2022-08-25", 0.771], ["2022-08-26", 0.772], ["2022-08-27", 0.771], ["2022-08-29", 0.771], ["2022-08-30", 0.772], ["2022-08-31", 0.772], ["2022-08-31", 0.774], ["2022-09-01", 0.775], ["2022-09-02", 0.775], ["2022-09-03", 0.777], ["2022-09-04", 0.779], ["2022-09-05", 0.817]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11366/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Liz Truss win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-06-14 | ["https://www.help.senate.gov/chair/newsroom/press/senate-passes-murray-burr-prevent-pandemics-act", "https://www.axios.com/2022/12/21/congresss-pandemic-preparedness-coronavirus-vaccines", "https://www.axios.com/2022/12/22/omnibus-government-spending-bill-2022#", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/s3799/text", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr2617/text/enr#link=FF_2_~T1&nearest=H0E1BCB7AFA62411D96B1B2E219AFF886", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr2617/text", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11373/prevent-pandemics-act-made-law/#comment-95554", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/s3799#", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/s3799", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/s3799/cosponsors", "https://www.skoposlabs.com/", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/s3799#)", "https://congress.gov/bill/117-congress/senate-bill/3799"] | binary | [["2022-06-17", 0.8], ["2022-06-17", 0.8], ["2022-06-17", 0.79], ["2022-06-17", 0.822], ["2022-06-18", 0.737], ["2022-06-19", 0.737], ["2022-06-20", 0.731], ["2022-06-20", 0.705], ["2022-06-20", 0.705], ["2022-06-21", 0.651], ["2022-06-21", 0.659], ["2022-06-21", 0.654], ["2022-06-22", 0.657], ["2022-06-22", 0.635], ["2022-06-23", 0.642], ["2022-06-23", 0.642], ["2022-06-24", 0.641], ["2022-06-28", 0.646], ["2022-06-28", 0.637], ["2022-06-29", 0.627], ["2022-06-29", 0.634], ["2022-06-30", 0.617], ["2022-06-30", 0.616], ["2022-07-01", 0.616], ["2022-07-04", 0.614], ["2022-07-05", 0.612], ["2022-07-05", 0.582], ["2022-07-06", 0.581], ["2022-07-10", 0.581], ["2022-07-10", 0.571], ["2022-07-11", 0.567], ["2022-07-11", 0.567], ["2022-07-12", 0.563], ["2022-07-13", 0.561], ["2022-07-13", 0.551], ["2022-07-15", 0.551], ["2022-07-20", 0.546], ["2022-07-26", 0.548], ["2022-07-27", 0.548], ["2022-08-01", 0.546], ["2022-08-01", 0.548], ["2022-08-03", 0.548], ["2022-08-04", 0.551], ["2022-08-05", 0.549], ["2022-08-11", 0.549], ["2022-08-18", 0.552], ["2022-08-31", 0.552], ["2022-09-03", 0.551], ["2022-09-06", 0.542], ["2022-09-10", 0.542], ["2022-09-13", 0.545], ["2022-09-18", 0.545], ["2022-09-18", 0.513], ["2022-09-18", 0.512], ["2022-09-20", 0.534], ["2022-09-20", 0.535], ["2022-09-25", 0.513], ["2022-09-26", 0.511], ["2022-10-02", 0.499], ["2022-10-02", 0.502], ["2022-10-03", 0.499], ["2022-10-03", 0.499], ["2022-10-11", 0.497], ["2022-10-16", 0.493], ["2022-10-22", 0.482], ["2022-10-23", 0.482], ["2022-10-25", 0.482], ["2022-10-25", 0.481], ["2022-10-30", 0.481], ["2022-10-31", 0.472], ["2022-11-01", 0.472], ["2022-11-12", 0.471], ["2022-11-12", 0.471], ["2022-11-14", 0.471], ["2022-11-18", 0.471], ["2022-11-18", 0.443], ["2022-11-20", 0.439], ["2022-11-23", 0.437], ["2022-11-24", 0.436], ["2022-11-28", 0.43], ["2022-11-28", 0.429], ["2022-12-02", 0.429], ["2022-12-02", 0.425], ["2022-12-04", 0.421], ["2022-12-04", 0.421], ["2022-12-08", 0.421], ["2022-12-08", 0.42], ["2022-12-13", 0.415], ["2022-12-14", 0.414], ["2022-12-15", 0.413], ["2022-12-15", 0.414], ["2022-12-16", 0.411], ["2022-12-22", 0.404], ["2022-12-22", 0.388], ["2022-12-23", 0.386], ["2022-12-23", 0.386], ["2022-12-25", 0.38], ["2022-12-27", 0.363], ["2022-12-27", 0.366], ["2022-12-28", 0.366], ["2022-12-28", 0.391]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11373/ | Earlier this year, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act. On March 15, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee voted 22-2 to advance the legislation.
The most recent draft of the PREVENT Pandemics Act would, among other things, do the following to strengthen US pandemic preparedness:
Authorize ~$1.9 billion in new spending, mostly for: early warning, real time monitoring, strengthening public health, and Strategic National Stockpile supply chain (note: this spending would subsequently have to be appropriated by congressional appropriations committee)
Create an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy within the Executive Office of the President. This office would be able to coordinate with other agencies to request appropriate funding and then direct the productive use of funding
Set several new requirements for the FDA, including mandating prioritization of infectious disease drugs and biologics during a pandemic and publishing guidance on how clinical trial designs can be used to speed up development and review of drugs to address future public health emergencies
Enables CDC to set up extensive genomic sequencing and directs CDC to improve data sharing
The purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made into law in the near future. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2023, the PREVENT Pandemics Act has been made into law. This would almost certainly involve both the US House and Senate passing the legislation, and then the US President signing it. Any version of the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made into law would count.
Fine Print
In rare cases, legislation can be made into law via Congress (both House and Senate) overriding a presidential veto. Passage of the PREVENT Pandemics Act in this manner would still count for this question to resolve as Yes. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-06-14 | ["https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr2617/text", "https://www.statnews.com/2022/12/22/pandemic-response-gets-a-permanent-home-at-the-white-house/", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr2617/text", "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/s3799#"] | binary | [["2022-06-17", 0.575], ["2022-06-17", 0.585], ["2022-06-17", 0.583], ["2022-06-17", 0.583], ["2022-06-17", 0.582], ["2022-06-17", 0.646], ["2022-06-18", 0.692], ["2022-06-18", 0.785], ["2022-06-19", 0.788], ["2022-06-20", 0.74], ["2022-06-21", 0.733], ["2022-06-21", 0.741], ["2022-06-21", 0.741], ["2022-06-21", 0.748], ["2022-06-21", 0.748], ["2022-06-21", 0.748], ["2022-06-22", 0.746], ["2022-06-22", 0.746], ["2022-06-22", 0.746], ["2022-06-23", 0.741], ["2022-06-23", 0.737], ["2022-06-23", 0.737], ["2022-06-23", 0.736], ["2022-06-28", 0.735], ["2022-06-28", 0.736], ["2022-07-05", 0.736], ["2022-07-06", 0.736], ["2022-07-06", 0.737], ["2022-07-10", 0.75], ["2022-07-11", 0.75], ["2022-07-12", 0.751], ["2022-07-15", 0.752], ["2022-07-20", 0.752], ["2022-07-20", 0.743], ["2022-07-25", 0.743], ["2022-07-26", 0.747], ["2022-07-27", 0.747], ["2022-08-01", 0.747], ["2022-08-04", 0.75], ["2022-08-05", 0.75], ["2022-08-11", 0.751], ["2022-08-13", 0.751], ["2022-08-18", 0.751], ["2022-08-31", 0.751], ["2022-09-10", 0.753], ["2022-10-02", 0.753], ["2022-10-03", 0.76], ["2022-10-03", 0.763], ["2022-10-16", 0.763], ["2022-10-25", 0.763], ["2022-10-26", 0.762], ["2022-10-30", 0.765], ["2022-11-01", 0.765], ["2022-11-01", 0.765], ["2022-11-12", 0.769], ["2022-11-13", 0.771], ["2022-11-18", 0.771], ["2022-11-18", 0.763], ["2022-11-20", 0.763], ["2022-12-13", 0.767], ["2022-12-13", 0.766], ["2022-12-15", 0.767], ["2022-12-15", 0.761], ["2022-12-15", 0.762], ["2022-12-22", 0.762], ["2022-12-22", 0.733], ["2022-12-23", 0.73], ["2022-12-25", 0.73], ["2022-12-25", 0.729], ["2022-12-27", 0.728], ["2022-12-28", 0.724], ["2022-12-28", 0.724]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11374/ | Earlier this year, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act. On 15 March, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee voted 22-2 to advance the legislation.
The PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen U.S. pandemic preparedness, including via the creation of an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPRP) within the Executive Office of the President. According to the Institute for Progress, this is a "saving grace" of the Act:
This office should be able to coordinate with the Office of Management and Budget to request the appropriate funding and then direct the productive use of these funds. Hopefully, the OPPRP will remain in the final version of the bill and Congress will eventually appropriate the funding needed to achieve everyone’s goal of preventing future pandemics.
The purpose of this question is to understand whether the potentially critical component that is the creation of the OPPRP will be in the PREVENT Pandemics Act, should the PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if the PREVENT Pandemics Act includes a component creating an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPRP) within the Executive Office of the President. This is conditional on the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made law before February 2023 (this Metaculus question would have to resolve as Yes).
If the PREVENT Pandemics Act has not been made law before February 2023 (ie. this Metaculus question resolves as No), then this question will resolve as *Ambiguous. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-15", 0.2], ["2022-06-16", 0.15], ["2022-06-16", 0.148], ["2022-06-16", 0.132], ["2022-06-17", 0.13], ["2022-06-19", 0.129], ["2022-06-20", 0.129], ["2022-06-20", 0.126], ["2022-06-21", 0.156], ["2022-06-21", 0.144], ["2022-06-22", 0.145], ["2022-06-28", 0.145], ["2022-06-29", 0.139], ["2022-06-29", 0.138], ["2022-07-05", 0.134], ["2022-07-05", 0.131], ["2022-07-06", 0.148], ["2022-07-06", 0.15], ["2022-07-06", 0.193], ["2022-07-07", 0.198], ["2022-07-07", 0.19], ["2022-07-07", 0.185], ["2022-07-07", 0.188], ["2022-07-08", 0.19], ["2022-07-08", 0.19], ["2022-07-08", 0.19], ["2022-07-09", 0.178], ["2022-07-09", 0.179], ["2022-07-09", 0.179], ["2022-07-10", 0.171], ["2022-07-10", 0.164], ["2022-07-10", 0.164], ["2022-07-11", 0.163], ["2022-07-11", 0.165], ["2022-07-12", 0.21], ["2022-07-12", 0.214], ["2022-07-12", 0.231], ["2022-07-12", 0.24], ["2022-07-13", 0.249], ["2022-07-13", 0.25], ["2022-07-13", 0.268], ["2022-07-13", 0.326], ["2022-07-14", 0.353], ["2022-07-14", 0.388], ["2022-07-14", 0.432], ["2022-07-15", 0.438], ["2022-07-15", 0.433], ["2022-07-16", 0.432], ["2022-07-16", 0.432], ["2022-07-16", 0.43], ["2022-07-17", 0.42], ["2022-07-17", 0.419], ["2022-07-17", 0.419], ["2022-07-18", 0.417], ["2022-07-18", 0.414], ["2022-07-18", 0.381], ["2022-07-19", 0.365], ["2022-07-19", 0.348], ["2022-07-19", 0.314], ["2022-07-20", 0.312], ["2022-07-20", 0.209], ["2022-07-21", 0.148], ["2022-07-21", 0.137], ["2022-07-21", 0.127], ["2022-07-22", 0.127], ["2022-07-23", 0.134], ["2022-07-24", 0.133], ["2022-07-24", 0.129], ["2022-07-26", 0.128], ["2022-07-26", 0.128], ["2022-07-26", 0.124], ["2022-07-27", 0.124], ["2022-07-29", 0.124], ["2022-07-29", 0.124], ["2022-07-30", 0.121], ["2022-07-30", 0.113], ["2022-07-31", 0.109], ["2022-08-01", 0.103], ["2022-08-01", 0.103], ["2022-08-01", 0.103], ["2022-08-02", 0.103], ["2022-08-02", 0.1], ["2022-08-02", 0.099], ["2022-08-03", 0.096], ["2022-08-03", 0.094], ["2022-08-03", 0.09], ["2022-08-03", 0.087], ["2022-08-05", 0.086], ["2022-08-05", 0.086], ["2022-08-06", 0.082], ["2022-08-07", 0.082], ["2022-08-07", 0.082], ["2022-08-10", 0.08], ["2022-08-10", 0.079], ["2022-08-12", 0.079], ["2022-08-18", 0.079], ["2022-08-25", 0.078], ["2022-08-31", 0.078], ["2022-09-04", 0.074], ["2022-09-05", 0.068], ["2022-09-05", 0.07]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11382/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? [previous version of this question]
Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.
A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.
This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.
Fine Print
If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Penny Mordaunt win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-08 | 2022-06-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.73], ["2022-06-26", 0.46], ["2022-06-27", 0.46], ["2022-06-27", 0.39], ["2022-06-27", 0.386], ["2022-06-28", 0.41], ["2022-06-28", 0.469], ["2022-06-28", 0.468], ["2022-06-29", 0.467], ["2022-07-04", 0.504], ["2022-07-05", 0.504], ["2022-07-05", 0.506], ["2022-07-08", 0.506], ["2022-07-09", 0.391], ["2022-07-10", 0.391], ["2022-07-11", 0.381], ["2022-07-11", 0.368], ["2022-07-12", 0.368], ["2022-07-13", 0.368], ["2022-07-15", 0.356], ["2022-07-16", 0.353], ["2022-07-19", 0.346], ["2022-07-20", 0.346], ["2022-07-20", 0.346], ["2022-07-27", 0.345], ["2022-08-05", 0.345], ["2022-08-18", 0.345], ["2022-08-23", 0.345], ["2022-08-27", 0.336], ["2022-08-27", 0.308], ["2022-08-31", 0.308], ["2022-09-02", 0.303], ["2022-10-04", 0.31], ["2022-10-05", 0.304], ["2022-10-05", 0.307], ["2022-10-16", 0.305], ["2022-10-16", 0.307], ["2022-10-20", 0.312], ["2022-10-20", 0.312], ["2022-10-22", 0.306], ["2022-10-25", 0.306], ["2022-10-26", 0.306], ["2022-10-27", 0.307], ["2022-10-28", 0.324], ["2022-10-28", 0.444], ["2022-10-29", 0.494], ["2022-10-29", 0.495], ["2022-10-30", 0.518], ["2022-10-30", 0.521], ["2022-10-31", 0.526], ["2022-10-31", 0.528], ["2022-10-31", 0.531], ["2022-11-01", 0.531], ["2022-11-01", 0.531], ["2022-11-02", 0.534], ["2022-11-02", 0.533], ["2022-11-03", 0.54], ["2022-11-03", 0.537], ["2022-11-05", 0.534], ["2022-11-05", 0.532], ["2022-11-05", 0.532], ["2022-11-08", 0.531], ["2022-11-08", 0.534], ["2022-11-09", 0.531], ["2022-11-10", 0.531], ["2022-11-12", 0.53], ["2022-11-13", 0.53], ["2022-11-16", 0.526], ["2022-11-18", 0.526], ["2022-11-18", 0.534], ["2022-11-19", 0.529], ["2022-11-19", 0.529], ["2022-11-20", 0.539], ["2022-11-20", 0.539], ["2022-11-21", 0.53], ["2022-11-22", 0.522], ["2022-11-22", 0.532], ["2022-11-22", 0.539], ["2022-11-23", 0.538], ["2022-11-23", 0.538], ["2022-11-24", 0.552], ["2022-11-24", 0.554], ["2022-11-25", 0.58], ["2022-11-25", 0.588], ["2022-11-25", 0.592], ["2022-11-26", 0.594], ["2022-11-26", 0.612], ["2022-11-27", 0.612], ["2022-11-27", 0.613], ["2022-11-28", 0.607], ["2022-11-29", 0.614], ["2022-11-29", 0.615], ["2022-12-01", 0.614], ["2022-12-01", 0.614], ["2022-12-02", 0.615], ["2022-12-02", 0.618], ["2022-12-03", 0.608], ["2022-12-05", 0.609], ["2022-12-06", 0.609], ["2022-12-07", 0.608], ["2022-12-07", 0.606]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11387/ | Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?
With Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter and explicitly talking about a return to its previously more free speech approach, there is a question about whether some prominent individuals who were banned will be unbanned. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed to have created a new account with the permission of Twitter before January 1, 2023. This resolves as No for any individual who is still banned on January 1, 2023 and was not unbanned during the relevant time period.
If an individual satisfies the resolution criteria but is later banned again this still resolves as Yes for that individual. Where an individual creates a new account but it is unclear if Twitter has allowed them to do so admins may use their discretion to determine appropriate resolution or resolve the question ambiguously for that individual | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter unban Laura Loomer before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-06-26", 0.45], ["2022-06-27", 0.342], ["2022-06-27", 0.29], ["2022-06-28", 0.287], ["2022-06-29", 0.391], ["2022-07-05", 0.391], ["2022-07-08", 0.391], ["2022-07-09", 0.271], ["2022-07-10", 0.268], ["2022-07-11", 0.246], ["2022-07-12", 0.246], ["2022-07-13", 0.246], ["2022-07-15", 0.232], ["2022-07-19", 0.232], ["2022-07-20", 0.228], ["2022-07-27", 0.228], ["2022-08-05", 0.228], ["2022-08-18", 0.228], ["2022-08-23", 0.228], ["2022-08-23", 0.228], ["2022-08-27", 0.213], ["2022-08-30", 0.209], ["2022-08-31", 0.209], ["2022-09-10", 0.209], ["2022-09-23", 0.208], ["2022-10-04", 0.203], ["2022-10-05", 0.201], ["2022-10-05", 0.201], ["2022-10-12", 0.203], ["2022-10-14", 0.215], ["2022-10-16", 0.215], ["2022-10-16", 0.216], ["2022-10-22", 0.216], ["2022-10-23", 0.213], ["2022-10-25", 0.213], ["2022-10-27", 0.213], ["2022-10-28", 0.265], ["2022-10-29", 0.378], ["2022-10-30", 0.395], ["2022-10-30", 0.4], ["2022-10-31", 0.401], ["2022-11-01", 0.402], ["2022-11-02", 0.405], ["2022-11-02", 0.405], ["2022-11-03", 0.408], ["2022-11-05", 0.4], ["2022-11-07", 0.401], ["2022-11-08", 0.402], ["2022-11-12", 0.403], ["2022-11-13", 0.402], ["2022-11-14", 0.394], ["2022-11-16", 0.394], ["2022-11-16", 0.396], ["2022-11-18", 0.396], ["2022-11-19", 0.322], ["2022-11-19", 0.304], ["2022-11-20", 0.297], ["2022-11-21", 0.299], ["2022-11-21", 0.285], ["2022-11-22", 0.271], ["2022-11-23", 0.255], ["2022-11-24", 0.26], ["2022-11-25", 0.253], ["2022-11-26", 0.253], ["2022-11-26", 0.25], ["2022-11-27", 0.248], ["2022-11-28", 0.243], ["2022-11-29", 0.247], ["2022-11-29", 0.247], ["2022-11-30", 0.247], ["2022-11-30", 0.246], ["2022-12-01", 0.247], ["2022-12-02", 0.248], ["2022-12-03", 0.245], ["2022-12-03", 0.237], ["2022-12-07", 0.237], ["2022-12-08", 0.235], ["2022-12-09", 0.234], ["2022-12-12", 0.233], ["2022-12-13", 0.232], ["2022-12-14", 0.232], ["2022-12-14", 0.232], ["2022-12-16", 0.232], ["2022-12-17", 0.221], ["2022-12-18", 0.218], ["2022-12-19", 0.218], ["2022-12-20", 0.207], ["2022-12-21", 0.206], ["2022-12-21", 0.2], ["2022-12-22", 0.199], ["2022-12-23", 0.198], ["2022-12-24", 0.195], ["2022-12-24", 0.194], ["2022-12-25", 0.189], ["2022-12-26", 0.186], ["2022-12-27", 0.183], ["2022-12-28", 0.183], ["2022-12-29", 0.18], ["2022-12-30", 0.178], ["2022-12-31", 0.11], ["2022-12-31", 0.101]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11388/ | Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?
With Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter and explicitly talking about a return to its previously more free speech approach, there is a question about whether some prominent individuals who were banned will be unbanned. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes for any of the listed individuals who regain their old account or are confirmed to have created a new account with the permission of Twitter before January 1, 2023. This resolves as No for any individual who is still banned on January 1, 2023 and was not unbanned during the relevant time period.
If an individual satisfies the resolution criteria but is later banned again this still resolves as Yes for that individual. Where an individual creates a new account but it is unclear if Twitter has allowed them to do so admins may use their discretion to determine appropriate resolution or resolve the question ambiguously for that individual | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter unban Alex Jones before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
Subsets and Splits