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2023-01-01 | 2022-02-26 | [] | binary | [["2022-02-26", 0.15], ["2022-03-01", 0.163], ["2022-03-03", 0.207], ["2022-03-05", 0.211], ["2022-03-09", 0.201], ["2022-03-13", 0.192], ["2022-03-15", 0.189], ["2022-03-18", 0.182], ["2022-03-21", 0.176], ["2022-03-24", 0.168], ["2022-03-27", 0.16], ["2022-03-31", 0.146], ["2022-04-03", 0.14], ["2022-04-05", 0.133], ["2022-04-07", 0.131], ["2022-04-11", 0.13], ["2022-04-14", 0.13], ["2022-04-17", 0.129], ["2022-04-20", 0.129], ["2022-04-22", 0.129], ["2022-04-26", 0.13], ["2022-04-29", 0.146], ["2022-05-02", 0.146], ["2022-05-06", 0.147], ["2022-05-10", 0.146], ["2022-05-14", 0.142], ["2022-05-16", 0.141], ["2022-05-19", 0.14], ["2022-05-22", 0.139], ["2022-05-24", 0.138], ["2022-05-27", 0.138], ["2022-05-29", 0.137], ["2022-06-01", 0.135], ["2022-06-03", 0.134], ["2022-06-07", 0.133], ["2022-06-10", 0.133], ["2022-06-12", 0.133], ["2022-06-14", 0.132], ["2022-06-17", 0.132], ["2022-06-20", 0.132], ["2022-06-23", 0.132], ["2022-06-28", 0.132], ["2022-07-02", 0.131], ["2022-07-04", 0.129], ["2022-07-07", 0.127], ["2022-07-10", 0.127], ["2022-07-13", 0.126], ["2022-07-16", 0.125], ["2022-07-18", 0.125], ["2022-07-21", 0.126], ["2022-07-25", 0.125], ["2022-07-29", 0.124], ["2022-08-01", 0.124], ["2022-08-03", 0.123], ["2022-08-06", 0.122], ["2022-08-09", 0.122], ["2022-08-12", 0.121], ["2022-08-15", 0.121], ["2022-08-18", 0.121], ["2022-08-21", 0.121], ["2022-08-23", 0.119], ["2022-08-27", 0.119], ["2022-08-31", 0.119], ["2022-09-03", 0.119], ["2022-09-07", 0.118], ["2022-09-09", 0.118], ["2022-09-12", 0.118], ["2022-09-16", 0.116], ["2022-09-20", 0.116], ["2022-09-22", 0.116], ["2022-09-24", 0.116], ["2022-09-27", 0.115], ["2022-09-30", 0.112], ["2022-10-02", 0.111], ["2022-10-05", 0.11], ["2022-10-07", 0.11], ["2022-10-10", 0.11], ["2022-10-13", 0.109], ["2022-10-17", 0.109], ["2022-10-21", 0.108], ["2022-10-23", 0.108], ["2022-10-26", 0.108], ["2022-10-28", 0.108], ["2022-11-01", 0.107], ["2022-11-03", 0.107], ["2022-11-05", 0.107], ["2022-11-08", 0.107], ["2022-11-12", 0.107], ["2022-11-16", 0.106], ["2022-11-21", 0.106], ["2022-11-24", 0.106], ["2022-11-28", 0.105], ["2022-12-02", 0.103], ["2022-12-05", 0.102], ["2022-12-09", 0.101], ["2022-12-13", 0.101], ["2022-12-17", 0.1], ["2022-12-20", 0.099], ["2022-12-24", 0.099], ["2022-12-27", 0.098], ["2022-12-31", 0.083]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/9999/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?
Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?
As Wikipedia states:
“Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is an unrecognized breakaway state located in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.”
[...] Transnistria has been recognized by only three other unrecognized or partially recognised breakaway states: Abkhazia, Artsakh, and South Ossetia. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 and December 31, 2022, there are at least five credible articles that:
a) report listing areas in Transnitria controlled by Russia that cover at least two thirds (2/3) of the population, according to the latest reliable population demographic data
AND
b) report that Russia formally acknowledges Russian political control over the region such that Russia formally considers the region of Transnistria as part of Russia.
We will define annexation as: the absorption of territory into a state. It is distinct from conquest, which refers to the acquisition of control over a territory involving a change of sovereignty, and differs from cession, in which territory is given or sold through treaty, since annexation is a unilateral act where territory is seized and held by one state. It usually follows military occupation of a territory | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-02 | 2022-02-26 | ["https://twitter.com/newsistaan/status/1621173195180216320?t=QiTHynkT0bmY_uG6vFZGhg&s=19", "https://twitter.com/SprinterBV0000/status/1621155592298696704?t=QS7Q60W11tahxS1ygDhKYA&s=19", "https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1621119774297030656?t=7xMbBS9yYT9tpw7498PjMA&s=19", "https://str.sg/wt77", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ignores-german-tank-decision-dispenses-career-advice-moscow-university-2023-01-25/", "https://www.msn.com/en-gb/video/watch/volodymyr-zelensky-thinks-putin-is-dead/vi-AA16yd82", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxim_Kalashnikov", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12gwba7CZ-g", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2022/9/21/russia-ukraine-live-news-putin-orders-partial-mobilisation", "https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19809828/vladimir-putins-car-attacked-assassination-attempt/", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Moscow", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Saint_Petersburg", "https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1569260715420024835)", "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-abandoned-russian-equipment/32029623.html", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-targets-ukraines-infrastructure-causing-blackouts-in-eastern-areas", "https://twitter.com/NikitaYuferev/status/1567555823848620033", "https://www.newsweek.com/russian-officials-propose-overthrowing-putin-charging-treason-1741085", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/09/lawmakers-putin-impeachment-censure-war/", "https://electionbettingodds.com/Putin2022.html", "http://reddit.com/r/noncredibledefense", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/21/europe/vladimir-putin-health-cia-cmd-intl/index.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcMiS6PW8aQ", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62246914"] | binary | [["2022-02-26", 0.66], ["2022-03-02", 0.747], ["2022-03-06", 0.744], ["2022-03-08", 0.743], ["2022-03-10", 0.739], ["2022-03-14", 0.74], ["2022-03-17", 0.745], ["2022-03-21", 0.75], ["2022-03-25", 0.749], ["2022-03-28", 0.751], ["2022-03-31", 0.753], ["2022-04-03", 0.756], ["2022-04-06", 0.757], ["2022-04-08", 0.759], ["2022-04-12", 0.76], ["2022-04-15", 0.76], ["2022-04-19", 0.761], ["2022-04-21", 0.762], ["2022-04-24", 0.763], ["2022-04-28", 0.764], ["2022-05-02", 0.765], ["2022-05-05", 0.763], ["2022-05-08", 0.763], ["2022-05-11", 0.764], ["2022-05-14", 0.763], ["2022-05-16", 0.763], ["2022-05-19", 0.762], ["2022-05-22", 0.762], ["2022-05-26", 0.762], ["2022-05-30", 0.762], ["2022-06-02", 0.762], ["2022-06-06", 0.764], ["2022-06-10", 0.764], ["2022-06-13", 0.766], ["2022-06-16", 0.767], ["2022-06-19", 0.767], ["2022-06-22", 0.767], ["2022-06-25", 0.768], ["2022-06-28", 0.768], ["2022-07-02", 0.769], ["2022-07-06", 0.77], ["2022-07-10", 0.77], ["2022-07-14", 0.77], ["2022-07-18", 0.77], ["2022-07-22", 0.771], ["2022-07-26", 0.774], ["2022-07-30", 0.775], ["2022-08-03", 0.776], ["2022-08-05", 0.777], ["2022-08-09", 0.778], ["2022-08-13", 0.778], ["2022-08-16", 0.778], ["2022-08-19", 0.779], ["2022-08-23", 0.78], ["2022-08-28", 0.781], ["2022-08-31", 0.782], ["2022-09-02", 0.782], ["2022-09-06", 0.783], ["2022-09-09", 0.783], ["2022-09-12", 0.781], ["2022-09-14", 0.781], ["2022-09-17", 0.782], ["2022-09-20", 0.783], ["2022-09-22", 0.782], ["2022-09-25", 0.781], ["2022-09-28", 0.782], ["2022-10-01", 0.781], ["2022-10-04", 0.782], ["2022-10-06", 0.782], ["2022-10-08", 0.781], ["2022-10-12", 0.781], ["2022-10-15", 0.782], ["2022-10-18", 0.782], ["2022-10-21", 0.782], ["2022-10-24", 0.782], ["2022-10-28", 0.783], ["2022-10-31", 0.783], ["2022-11-03", 0.784], ["2022-11-07", 0.784], ["2022-11-10", 0.785], ["2022-11-14", 0.787], ["2022-11-17", 0.789], ["2022-11-21", 0.789], ["2022-11-24", 0.79], ["2022-11-28", 0.791], ["2022-12-02", 0.792], ["2022-12-06", 0.794], ["2022-12-09", 0.795], ["2022-12-14", 0.796], ["2022-12-18", 0.798], ["2022-12-22", 0.799], ["2022-12-26", 0.8], ["2022-12-30", 0.801], ["2023-01-03", 0.807], ["2023-01-08", 0.813], ["2023-01-11", 0.814], ["2023-01-16", 0.815], ["2023-01-20", 0.816], ["2023-01-24", 0.817], ["2023-01-29", 0.819], ["2023-02-01", 0.842]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10002/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
Vladimir Vladmirovich Putin has been the president of the Russian Federation since 2012, with a previous term from 2000 to 2008. President Putin's presidential term is expected to last until 2024. In February 2022 in response to the invasion of Ukraine thousands of Russians demonstrants took the streets and squares of Russian cities. As the New York Times report:
“While many Russians credit Mr. Putin with lifting their country out of the economic hardship and instability of the 1990s, others are deeply uneasy about his leadership. And tough sanctions that affect everyday Russians, like potential technology embargoes that could separate Russians from their beloved next-generation phones, could diminish his support at home.” Russia is the largest country and still maintains the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. Its internal instability can be a huge risk to global security. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if both of these conditions are met:
Vladimir Putin is president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023.
The Russian Federation controls at least 90% of the territory it controlled in January 2022.
This question will resolve as Yes even if the legitimacy of his presidency is called into question, as long as he has de facto control of the office, for example if he is impeached and removed from office by the Federal Assembly but there are disputes whether this is valid and he manages to stay in power. If there are internal clashes or a civil war and it is not clear who is in charge, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
"The de facto boundaries of a country are defined by the area that its government is actually able to enforce its laws in, and to defend against encroachments by other countries that may also claim the same territory de jure. The Durand Line is an example of a de facto boundary. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-03 | 2022-02-27 | ["https://twitter.com/AP/status/1610357062822658057)", "https://thecapitolist.com/elections-canvassing-commission-certifies-state-midterm-elections/", "http://www.myfloridacfo.com/news/newsletter/archive/news-details/2022/11/22/cfo-patronis-statement-on-the-certification-of-2022-florida-election-results", "https://nypost.com/2022/11/08/desantis-heads-to-second-term-in-florida/", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1562228242391609344)"] | binary | [["2022-04-13", 0.5], ["2022-04-15", 0.743], ["2022-04-16", 0.811], ["2022-04-17", 0.802], ["2022-04-18", 0.81], ["2022-04-20", 0.812], ["2022-04-22", 0.812], ["2022-04-23", 0.821], ["2022-04-25", 0.826], ["2022-04-30", 0.825], ["2022-05-03", 0.83], ["2022-05-03", 0.83], ["2022-05-06", 0.84], ["2022-05-11", 0.84], ["2022-05-15", 0.84], ["2022-05-17", 0.836], ["2022-05-18", 0.84], ["2022-05-22", 0.839], ["2022-06-07", 0.842], ["2022-06-08", 0.843], ["2022-06-11", 0.842], ["2022-06-12", 0.845], ["2022-06-13", 0.84], ["2022-06-15", 0.842], ["2022-06-16", 0.842], ["2022-06-17", 0.844], ["2022-06-19", 0.845], ["2022-06-20", 0.845], ["2022-06-21", 0.851], ["2022-06-26", 0.851], ["2022-06-28", 0.852], ["2022-06-30", 0.855], ["2022-07-01", 0.863], ["2022-07-02", 0.864], ["2022-07-04", 0.87], ["2022-07-05", 0.871], ["2022-07-09", 0.872], ["2022-07-09", 0.872], ["2022-07-11", 0.871], ["2022-07-12", 0.876], ["2022-07-14", 0.877], ["2022-07-15", 0.877], ["2022-07-20", 0.877], ["2022-07-27", 0.877], ["2022-07-29", 0.881], ["2022-07-31", 0.883], ["2022-08-01", 0.883], ["2022-08-05", 0.885], ["2022-08-06", 0.887], ["2022-08-08", 0.887], ["2022-08-09", 0.889], ["2022-08-11", 0.889], ["2022-08-12", 0.891], ["2022-08-14", 0.891], ["2022-08-16", 0.891], ["2022-08-18", 0.892], ["2022-08-21", 0.894], ["2022-08-23", 0.896], ["2022-08-24", 0.895], ["2022-08-25", 0.898], ["2022-08-26", 0.904], ["2022-08-28", 0.904], ["2022-08-28", 0.905], ["2022-08-31", 0.905], ["2022-09-01", 0.905], ["2022-09-03", 0.905], ["2022-09-03", 0.905], ["2022-09-05", 0.905], ["2022-09-05", 0.905], ["2022-09-07", 0.906], ["2022-09-07", 0.906], ["2022-09-09", 0.905], ["2022-09-12", 0.906], ["2022-09-15", 0.907], ["2022-09-17", 0.906], ["2022-09-20", 0.906], ["2022-09-25", 0.905], ["2022-09-27", 0.905], ["2022-09-30", 0.906], ["2022-10-02", 0.906], ["2022-10-07", 0.906], ["2022-10-09", 0.906], ["2022-10-10", 0.907], ["2022-10-11", 0.906], ["2022-10-14", 0.906], ["2022-10-14", 0.907], ["2022-10-16", 0.905], ["2022-10-16", 0.905], ["2022-10-20", 0.905], ["2022-10-22", 0.906], ["2022-10-23", 0.908], ["2022-10-25", 0.907], ["2022-10-27", 0.906], ["2022-10-29", 0.906], ["2022-10-30", 0.907], ["2022-11-01", 0.907], ["2022-11-02", 0.908], ["2022-11-04", 0.909], ["2022-11-06", 0.911], ["2022-11-07", 0.922], ["2022-11-08", 0.926]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10020/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?
With Ron DeSantis running for his second term as Governor of Florida, he faces a potentially contentious fight for reelection. His positions on topics such as coronavirus lockdowns, teaching critical race theory in schools, and his support of former President Donald Trump have proved controversial. Recent polling shows that he leads his most likely Democratic challenger, former Governor Charlie Crist by 8 points. | Politics & Governance | This questions will resolve as "Yes" if, on January 8th 2023, Ron DeSantis is sworn in for his second term as Governor of Florida.
Fine Print
In the case that the inauguration is rescheduled or postponed, such as in the case of a recount, this question will resolve as "Yes" if Ron DeSantis is inaugurated for another term as Governor following the 2022 Florida Gubernatorial Election. | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-02-27 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9984/russian-cyberattack-on-us-infrastructure-2022/", "https://www.nextgov.com/cybersecurity/2022/11/russia-linked-nearly-75-late-2021-ransomware-attacks-analysis/379197/)", "https://www.itgovernance.eu/blog/en/cyber-attacks-and-data-breaches-in-review-december-2022", "https://www.itgovernance.eu/blog/en/cyber-attacks-and-data-breaches-in-review-november-2022", "https://www.itgovernance.eu/blog/en/cyber-attacks-and-data-breaches-in-review-october-2022", "https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/01/vatican-hit-by-suspected-cyber-attack", "https://www.scmagazine.com/news/critical-infrastructure/attacks-on-critical-infrastructure-doubled-in-the-past-year-microsoft-says", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/danish-train-standstill-saturday-caused-by-cyber-attack-2022-11-03/?", "https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/russian-cyberwarfare-unpacking-the-kremlins-capabilities/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/09/10/1122234717/ukraine-is-fighting-both-a-physical-and-cyber-war-against-russia", "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220823-cyber-attackers-disrupt-services-at-french-hospital-demand-10-million-ransom", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/estonia-says-it-repelled-cyber-attacks-claimed-by-russian-group"] | binary | [["2022-03-05", 0.6], ["2022-03-07", 0.533], ["2022-03-10", 0.517], ["2022-03-13", 0.514], ["2022-03-16", 0.507], ["2022-03-18", 0.504], ["2022-03-21", 0.502], ["2022-03-24", 0.506], ["2022-03-26", 0.506], ["2022-03-29", 0.506], ["2022-04-02", 0.508], ["2022-04-04", 0.506], ["2022-04-07", 0.507], ["2022-04-12", 0.5], ["2022-04-14", 0.498], ["2022-04-18", 0.498], ["2022-04-20", 0.497], ["2022-04-22", 0.497], ["2022-04-24", 0.497], ["2022-04-27", 0.498], ["2022-05-01", 0.497], ["2022-05-05", 0.49], ["2022-05-09", 0.486], ["2022-05-12", 0.485], ["2022-05-17", 0.484], ["2022-05-21", 0.483], ["2022-05-23", 0.481], ["2022-05-26", 0.481], ["2022-05-29", 0.477], ["2022-06-01", 0.475], ["2022-06-05", 0.47], ["2022-06-07", 0.468], ["2022-06-09", 0.467], ["2022-06-14", 0.465], ["2022-06-16", 0.464], ["2022-06-20", 0.464], ["2022-06-22", 0.464], ["2022-06-24", 0.462], ["2022-06-27", 0.461], ["2022-06-29", 0.451], ["2022-07-02", 0.443], ["2022-07-04", 0.442], ["2022-07-07", 0.435], ["2022-07-09", 0.432], ["2022-07-13", 0.43], ["2022-07-15", 0.429], ["2022-07-18", 0.427], ["2022-07-20", 0.425], ["2022-07-23", 0.425], ["2022-07-27", 0.421], ["2022-07-29", 0.421], ["2022-08-01", 0.419], ["2022-08-04", 0.416], ["2022-08-06", 0.416], ["2022-08-08", 0.415], ["2022-08-10", 0.416], ["2022-08-15", 0.415], ["2022-08-17", 0.414], ["2022-08-20", 0.411], ["2022-08-24", 0.407], ["2022-08-28", 0.407], ["2022-08-30", 0.406], ["2022-09-02", 0.404], ["2022-09-04", 0.402], ["2022-09-07", 0.401], ["2022-09-09", 0.399], ["2022-09-13", 0.392], ["2022-09-16", 0.391], ["2022-09-19", 0.391], ["2022-09-21", 0.39], ["2022-09-24", 0.389], ["2022-09-27", 0.389], ["2022-09-30", 0.385], ["2022-10-02", 0.384], ["2022-10-05", 0.38], ["2022-10-08", 0.38], ["2022-10-11", 0.38], ["2022-10-14", 0.379], ["2022-10-18", 0.379], ["2022-10-22", 0.379], ["2022-10-23", 0.379], ["2022-10-27", 0.379], ["2022-10-30", 0.379], ["2022-11-01", 0.375], ["2022-11-05", 0.373], ["2022-11-08", 0.371], ["2022-11-12", 0.365], ["2022-11-15", 0.362], ["2022-11-19", 0.36], ["2022-11-21", 0.359], ["2022-11-24", 0.356], ["2022-11-28", 0.354], ["2022-12-02", 0.352], ["2022-12-05", 0.347], ["2022-12-09", 0.342], ["2022-12-13", 0.34], ["2022-12-17", 0.336], ["2022-12-21", 0.333], ["2022-12-25", 0.33], ["2022-12-29", 0.326], ["2022-12-31", 0.268]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10021/ | In 2020, multiple cyberattacks on EU or UK administration and businesses occurred through multiple exploits.
Cyber Attacks and Data Breaches in Review: January 2022 | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if the following conditions are met:
At any time from February 25, 2022 to January 1, 2023, one or more cyberattacks successfully disrupt some part of the EU or UK critical infrastructure (electricity, water supply, heating, sewer systems, gas/oil/petrol processing and distribution, transportation and aviation, communications networks, medical care, security/defense/military, banking and financial infrastructure). The target of the attack may be publicly or privately owned or operated.
The attack is attributed to hackers from the Russian government or sponsored by the Russian government, according to statements by the EU or UK government or EU official communications or UK intelligence agencies.
At least one of the following conditions is met regarding the severity of the attack:
The attack is estimated to have caused at least $1 million direct property damage (excluding intellectual property).
The attack is estimated to have caused at least $10 million of direct or indirect costs to the economy.
The attack causes loss of an essential service (such as electricity, water, gas pumps) affecting at least 10,000 people for at least 1 week.
The attack causes a sharp rise in price of essential goods (such as food or gasoline) by at least 50% for a community of at least 10,000 people.
The attack is estimated to have caused at least 10 fatalities.
To assess the above criteria, Metaculus Admins will consider reports by EU or UK government agencies, research and analytics organizations, or credible media reports | true | 2022-12-31 | Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-02-28 | ["https://www.mnd.gov.tw/Publish.aspx?p=80843&title=%e5%9c%8b%e9%98%b2%e6%b6%88%e6%81%af&SelectStyle=%e5%8d%b3%e6%99%82%e8%bb%8d%e4%ba%8b%e5%8b%95%e6%85%8b", "https://thehill.com/policy/3788661-record-number-of-chinese-aircraft-buzz-taiwan-airspace/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64094261", "https://www.mnd.gov.tw/Publish.aspx?p=80665", "https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1589580848713838592.", "https://www.mnd.gov.tw/Publish.aspx?p=80310&title=\u570b\u9632\u6d88\u606f&SelectStyle=\u5373\u6642\u8ecd\u4e8b\u52d5\u614b", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindu.com/news/international/chinese-fighter-jets-and-warships-crossed-median-line-says-taiwan/article65730080.ece/amp/", "https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1555528137613938688?s=20&t=wdk4FSKgvRfaqThwQvXSKw", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/04/asia/china-taiwan-pelosi-japan-tensions-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/china-begins-live-fire-military-drills-around-taiwan-a-day-after-pelosi-visit.html)"] | binary | [["2022-03-01", 0.8], ["2022-03-03", 0.492], ["2022-03-06", 0.515], ["2022-03-09", 0.504], ["2022-03-11", 0.512], ["2022-03-13", 0.519], ["2022-03-14", 0.518], ["2022-03-17", 0.524], ["2022-03-19", 0.52], ["2022-03-21", 0.52], ["2022-03-27", 0.52], ["2022-03-30", 0.522], ["2022-04-03", 0.522], ["2022-04-08", 0.523], ["2022-04-08", 0.526], ["2022-04-22", 0.525], ["2022-04-23", 0.525], ["2022-05-02", 0.525], ["2022-05-03", 0.522], ["2022-05-06", 0.52], ["2022-05-09", 0.521], ["2022-05-12", 0.514], ["2022-05-17", 0.509], ["2022-05-18", 0.509], ["2022-05-23", 0.508], ["2022-06-06", 0.508], ["2022-06-07", 0.509], ["2022-06-11", 0.51], ["2022-06-14", 0.509], ["2022-06-17", 0.51], ["2022-06-21", 0.511], ["2022-06-28", 0.511], ["2022-06-29", 0.512], ["2022-07-01", 0.512], ["2022-07-05", 0.516], ["2022-07-09", 0.516], ["2022-07-12", 0.516], ["2022-07-15", 0.518], ["2022-07-20", 0.518], ["2022-07-25", 0.518], ["2022-07-26", 0.52], ["2022-07-28", 0.52], ["2022-07-31", 0.523], ["2022-08-02", 0.534], ["2022-08-04", 0.534], ["2022-08-06", 0.566], ["2022-08-09", 0.583], ["2022-08-11", 0.577], ["2022-08-15", 0.575], ["2022-08-17", 0.574], ["2022-08-19", 0.574], ["2022-08-22", 0.574], ["2022-08-25", 0.568], ["2022-08-30", 0.568], ["2022-09-01", 0.567], ["2022-09-04", 0.552], ["2022-09-07", 0.55], ["2022-09-08", 0.55], ["2022-09-11", 0.548], ["2022-09-14", 0.548], ["2022-09-16", 0.548], ["2022-09-19", 0.545], ["2022-09-21", 0.545], ["2022-09-24", 0.543], ["2022-09-30", 0.54], ["2022-10-02", 0.535], ["2022-10-04", 0.533], ["2022-10-06", 0.529], ["2022-10-09", 0.528], ["2022-10-11", 0.525], ["2022-10-13", 0.525], ["2022-10-17", 0.524], ["2022-10-24", 0.522], ["2022-10-27", 0.523], ["2022-10-29", 0.522], ["2022-11-01", 0.522], ["2022-11-03", 0.517], ["2022-11-05", 0.506], ["2022-11-07", 0.494], ["2022-11-10", 0.491], ["2022-11-13", 0.491], ["2022-11-16", 0.483], ["2022-11-18", 0.473], ["2022-11-21", 0.452], ["2022-11-23", 0.445], ["2022-11-25", 0.442], ["2022-11-28", 0.436], ["2022-11-30", 0.436], ["2022-12-02", 0.435], ["2022-12-04", 0.433], ["2022-12-06", 0.425], ["2022-12-08", 0.425], ["2022-12-11", 0.425], ["2022-12-13", 0.424], ["2022-12-15", 0.421], ["2022-12-17", 0.419], ["2022-12-19", 0.418], ["2022-12-22", 0.407], ["2022-12-24", 0.4], ["2022-12-28", 0.378], ["2022-12-30", 0.287]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10032/ | On October 4, 2021, there were 56 Chinese warplanes that flew into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This was largest incursion since the island first started reporting such activity in September 2020, as reported by Statista, based on information from Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. Whilst there has not been more aircraft on a single day, the high numbers of incursions have become a more persistent phenomenon.
This is a list of all days with more than 30 incursions, as of 28th February 2022:
October 1st 2021 - 38
October 2nd 2021 - 39
October 4th 2021 - 56
January 23rd 2022 - 39 | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if on any single day in 2022 the total number of aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) reported by R.O.C Ministry of National Defense exceeds 60 on a single day.
Resolution will be based on the daily Air activities in the southwestern ADIZ of R.O.C. (我西南空域空情動態) reports published by the R.O.C.'s Ministry of National Defense at www.mnd.gov.tw.
This website is available in Chinese only. See our tips for convenient ways of working with Chinese-language resources using machine translation. The PDF reports themselves are Chinese-English and should be usable without translation.
Each report contains listing of types of aircraft detected with corresponding counts. Example from the Feb 28, 2022 report:
一、日期 Date:
中華民國 111 年 2 月 28 日（星期一 日間）
February 28,2022（Monday daytime）
二、機型 Aircraft Type:
運-8 反潛機 1 架次（One Y-8 ASW）
殲-16 機 4 架次（Four J-16）
殲-10 機 2 架次（Two J-10）
Total aircraft number of aircraft is computed by summing the numbers for all types of aircraft reported. In this case, it would be 1+4+2 = 7. If there are multiple reports for the same day (e.g. separate daytime and nighttime report), the numbers from these reports will be added up to form the total.
The ADIZ is not the same as Taiwan’s national airspace. Flying within the ADIZ means Taiwan will monitor and warn aircraft. Only those that cross the median line (shown on the MND reports) are reported since the ADIZ crosses into Chinese airspace | true | 2022-12-30 | Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-06 | 2022-03-01 | ["https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/google-terminates-thousand-of-youtube-channels-in-china-russia-brazil/articleshow/95976976.cms", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/russian-court-orders-google-restore-parliament-youtube-channel-duma-2022-11-23/", "http://duma.gov.ru/en/news/55829/", "https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ban-youtube-shadayev/31854787.html", "https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2022/10/18/2790017/russian-senator-urges-ban-on-youtube-as-google-suspends-federation-council-accounts", "https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/30/prigozhin-demands-youtube-be-banned-in-russia-and-google-llc-declared-undesired-organisation-en-news", "https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/30/prigozhin-asks-prosecutor-general-to-block-youtube-in-russia", "http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://ria.ru/20221026/video-1826887707.html&strip=1&vwsrc=0", "https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-10-14-rutube-presented-an-application-for-children-and-their-parents-on-android--ios-and-harmonyos.rJBJWxDmj.html", "https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/30/prigozhin-asks-prosecutor-general-to-block-youtube-in-russia", "https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1579793212528820226", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-is-fined-390-mln-russia-not-deleting-banned-content-interfax-2022-07-18/", "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/14/putin-signs-expanded-foreign-agents-law-a78298"] | binary | [["2022-03-02", 0.2], ["2022-03-05", 0.8], ["2022-03-09", 0.814], ["2022-03-11", 0.808], ["2022-03-14", 0.815], ["2022-03-17", 0.811], ["2022-03-20", 0.819], ["2022-03-22", 0.82], ["2022-03-25", 0.817], ["2022-03-27", 0.807], ["2022-03-30", 0.741], ["2022-04-02", 0.714], ["2022-04-05", 0.705], ["2022-04-07", 0.696], ["2022-04-11", 0.728], ["2022-04-15", 0.732], ["2022-04-17", 0.734], ["2022-04-21", 0.733], ["2022-04-24", 0.731], ["2022-04-27", 0.725], ["2022-04-30", 0.724], ["2022-05-03", 0.715], ["2022-05-06", 0.709], ["2022-05-10", 0.705], ["2022-05-12", 0.696], ["2022-05-15", 0.678], ["2022-05-17", 0.672], ["2022-05-20", 0.644], ["2022-05-22", 0.631], ["2022-05-26", 0.624], ["2022-05-28", 0.615], ["2022-05-31", 0.611], ["2022-06-02", 0.605], ["2022-06-06", 0.598], ["2022-06-08", 0.594], ["2022-06-11", 0.594], ["2022-06-15", 0.593], ["2022-06-19", 0.592], ["2022-06-22", 0.59], ["2022-06-24", 0.589], ["2022-06-27", 0.588], ["2022-06-29", 0.587], ["2022-07-02", 0.584], ["2022-07-04", 0.583], ["2022-07-08", 0.578], ["2022-07-10", 0.574], ["2022-07-13", 0.571], ["2022-07-15", 0.567], ["2022-07-19", 0.565], ["2022-07-22", 0.561], ["2022-07-24", 0.56], ["2022-07-27", 0.558], ["2022-07-29", 0.557], ["2022-08-02", 0.55], ["2022-08-06", 0.547], ["2022-08-08", 0.541], ["2022-08-11", 0.535], ["2022-08-13", 0.535], ["2022-08-18", 0.532], ["2022-08-20", 0.53], ["2022-08-23", 0.529], ["2022-08-25", 0.529], ["2022-08-29", 0.528], ["2022-09-02", 0.528], ["2022-09-05", 0.527], ["2022-09-08", 0.522], ["2022-09-10", 0.516], ["2022-09-13", 0.512], ["2022-09-16", 0.51], ["2022-09-19", 0.51], ["2022-09-21", 0.51], ["2022-09-24", 0.509], ["2022-09-28", 0.506], ["2022-10-01", 0.505], ["2022-10-04", 0.503], ["2022-10-08", 0.503], ["2022-10-10", 0.496], ["2022-10-13", 0.492], ["2022-10-16", 0.489], ["2022-10-18", 0.489], ["2022-10-21", 0.487], ["2022-10-24", 0.486], ["2022-10-28", 0.486], ["2022-11-01", 0.482], ["2022-11-04", 0.48], ["2022-11-07", 0.479], ["2022-11-11", 0.476], ["2022-11-13", 0.475], ["2022-11-17", 0.473], ["2022-11-21", 0.473], ["2022-11-24", 0.471], ["2022-11-28", 0.466], ["2022-12-01", 0.464], ["2022-12-05", 0.462], ["2022-12-09", 0.459], ["2022-12-13", 0.451], ["2022-12-17", 0.447], ["2022-12-21", 0.446], ["2022-12-25", 0.442], ["2022-12-30", 0.438], ["2022-12-31", 0.365]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10040/ | Related Questons on Metaculus:
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? [resolved]
Recently, Google banned Russian state-owned news agencies RT and Sputnik across Europe.
Additionally, Roskomnadzor partly blocked Facebook, and Twitter reported access issues in Russia. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2022. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively | true | 2023-01-01 | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-01 | ["https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-press-7/", "https://nitter.net/baklitskiy/status/1597221258189770752#m", "https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-open-in-person-talks-with-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-2022-09-29/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-tells-us-it-is-suspending-inspections-under-start-weapons-treaty-2022-08-08/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/8/russia-suspends-inspections-of-strategic-arms-under-us-treaty"] | binary | [["2022-03-02", 0.1], ["2022-03-03", 0.342], ["2022-03-06", 0.308], ["2022-03-08", 0.302], ["2022-03-10", 0.297], ["2022-03-14", 0.286], ["2022-03-17", 0.286], ["2022-03-21", 0.279], ["2022-03-25", 0.278], ["2022-03-28", 0.277], ["2022-03-30", 0.275], ["2022-04-01", 0.271], ["2022-04-04", 0.265], ["2022-04-07", 0.263], ["2022-04-11", 0.255], ["2022-04-15", 0.25], ["2022-04-17", 0.249], ["2022-04-20", 0.246], ["2022-04-23", 0.244], ["2022-04-27", 0.245], ["2022-05-02", 0.244], ["2022-05-04", 0.241], ["2022-05-07", 0.24], ["2022-05-11", 0.238], ["2022-05-17", 0.238], ["2022-05-21", 0.237], ["2022-05-24", 0.237], ["2022-05-27", 0.234], ["2022-05-29", 0.234], ["2022-06-01", 0.233], ["2022-06-03", 0.23], ["2022-06-05", 0.229], ["2022-06-09", 0.228], ["2022-06-12", 0.229], ["2022-06-15", 0.228], ["2022-06-18", 0.228], ["2022-06-21", 0.228], ["2022-06-23", 0.228], ["2022-06-27", 0.228], ["2022-06-30", 0.226], ["2022-07-02", 0.222], ["2022-07-05", 0.221], ["2022-07-07", 0.22], ["2022-07-10", 0.219], ["2022-07-13", 0.217], ["2022-07-15", 0.216], ["2022-07-18", 0.215], ["2022-07-22", 0.214], ["2022-07-24", 0.214], ["2022-07-27", 0.212], ["2022-08-01", 0.212], ["2022-08-03", 0.209], ["2022-08-07", 0.207], ["2022-08-11", 0.206], ["2022-08-13", 0.202], ["2022-08-16", 0.203], ["2022-08-18", 0.203], ["2022-08-21", 0.202], ["2022-08-23", 0.202], ["2022-08-26", 0.2], ["2022-08-29", 0.199], ["2022-09-02", 0.199], ["2022-09-04", 0.197], ["2022-09-07", 0.197], ["2022-09-09", 0.195], ["2022-09-11", 0.195], ["2022-09-18", 0.195], ["2022-09-21", 0.195], ["2022-09-24", 0.195], ["2022-09-27", 0.195], ["2022-09-30", 0.191], ["2022-10-03", 0.189], ["2022-10-04", 0.188], ["2022-10-08", 0.188], ["2022-10-11", 0.187], ["2022-10-13", 0.187], ["2022-10-16", 0.187], ["2022-10-18", 0.186], ["2022-10-22", 0.186], ["2022-10-26", 0.185], ["2022-10-29", 0.183], ["2022-11-01", 0.181], ["2022-11-04", 0.18], ["2022-11-06", 0.178], ["2022-11-09", 0.178], ["2022-11-12", 0.177], ["2022-11-14", 0.175], ["2022-11-17", 0.175], ["2022-11-19", 0.175], ["2022-11-23", 0.175], ["2022-11-26", 0.174], ["2022-11-30", 0.172], ["2022-12-02", 0.171], ["2022-12-06", 0.17], ["2022-12-09", 0.17], ["2022-12-13", 0.17], ["2022-12-17", 0.164], ["2022-12-21", 0.162], ["2022-12-25", 0.159], ["2022-12-29", 0.156], ["2022-12-31", 0.124]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10042/ | As of January 2021,
"The United States and Russia have finalised an agreement to extend until 2026 a treaty limiting their stockpiles of nuclear weapons. "The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START Treaty), which was due to expire on Friday, imposes limits on Russian and US intercontinental missiles and bombers, but does not cover new types of weapons."
Beginning in 2011, the New START Treaty required that both the US and Russia meet a set aggregate limit for the number of deployed and non-deployed nuclear weapons.
Both countries met the central limits of the New START Treaty by February 5, 2018, and have stayed at or below them ever since. Those limits are:
700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments;
1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (each such heavy bomber is counted as one warhead toward this limit);
800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.
However, on February 27, 2022, Putin threatened the use of nuclear weapons if any Western countries intervened militarily in Ukraine.
"Putin has told foreign countries not to interfere in his invasion of Ukraine, saying it could lead to “consequences they have never seen”. He has positioned anti-air missiles and other advanced missile systems in Belarus and deployed his fleet to the Black Sea in an effort to prevent a western intervention in Ukraine. "On the same day, the government in Belarus claimed that a referendum had approved constitutional changes, revoking its neutrality and its nuclear-free status. The changes would allow Russia to station nuclear weapons on Belarus territory." | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if the Russian government formally announces that it will withdraw from the New START Treaty as defined in 2021 before January 1, 2023.
If Russia violates the agreement by stockpiling more weapons that allowed, or by deploying more weapons that agreed upon, but does not announce its withdrawal from the treaty, this question will resolve negatively. An announcement of a threat to withdraw unless certain actions are performed by the West or the US will not trigger resolution.
Resolution will be sourced from a direct announcement from the Russian government or President Vladimir Putin, or from at least 5 reputable news sources | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-01 | 2022-03-02 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-02", 0.705], ["2022-03-02", 0.619], ["2022-03-03", 0.577], ["2022-03-03", 0.58], ["2022-03-04", 0.59], ["2022-03-04", 0.587], ["2022-03-05", 0.583], ["2022-03-06", 0.597], ["2022-03-06", 0.601], ["2022-03-07", 0.596], ["2022-03-07", 0.597], ["2022-03-07", 0.598], ["2022-03-08", 0.592], ["2022-03-08", 0.585], ["2022-03-09", 0.578], ["2022-03-09", 0.574], ["2022-03-10", 0.566], ["2022-03-10", 0.555], ["2022-03-11", 0.534], ["2022-03-11", 0.518], ["2022-03-11", 0.499], ["2022-03-12", 0.492], ["2022-03-13", 0.479], ["2022-03-13", 0.476], ["2022-03-14", 0.473], ["2022-03-15", 0.463], ["2022-03-15", 0.461], ["2022-03-15", 0.457], ["2022-03-16", 0.452], ["2022-03-16", 0.447], ["2022-03-17", 0.437], ["2022-03-17", 0.428], ["2022-03-18", 0.421], ["2022-03-18", 0.413], ["2022-03-19", 0.408], ["2022-03-20", 0.397], ["2022-03-20", 0.396], ["2022-03-21", 0.395], ["2022-03-21", 0.388], ["2022-03-22", 0.388], ["2022-03-22", 0.385], ["2022-03-23", 0.384], ["2022-03-23", 0.379], ["2022-03-24", 0.372], ["2022-03-24", 0.371], ["2022-03-25", 0.367], ["2022-03-25", 0.346], ["2022-03-26", 0.331], ["2022-03-26", 0.299], ["2022-03-27", 0.295], ["2022-03-27", 0.294], ["2022-03-28", 0.292], ["2022-03-28", 0.282], ["2022-03-29", 0.271], ["2022-03-29", 0.261], ["2022-03-30", 0.254], ["2022-03-30", 0.252], ["2022-03-31", 0.246], ["2022-03-31", 0.237], ["2022-04-01", 0.237], ["2022-04-01", 0.236], ["2022-04-02", 0.235], ["2022-04-02", 0.235], ["2022-04-03", 0.233], ["2022-04-03", 0.227], ["2022-04-04", 0.22], ["2022-04-04", 0.22], ["2022-04-05", 0.215], ["2022-04-05", 0.213], ["2022-04-06", 0.205], ["2022-04-06", 0.203], ["2022-04-07", 0.201], ["2022-04-07", 0.2], ["2022-04-08", 0.2], ["2022-04-08", 0.198], ["2022-04-09", 0.197], ["2022-04-09", 0.194], ["2022-04-10", 0.192], ["2022-04-11", 0.191], ["2022-04-11", 0.191], ["2022-04-12", 0.19], ["2022-04-12", 0.19], ["2022-04-12", 0.188], ["2022-04-13", 0.187], ["2022-04-13", 0.185], ["2022-04-14", 0.185], ["2022-04-14", 0.185], ["2022-04-15", 0.185], ["2022-04-15", 0.185], ["2022-04-16", 0.185], ["2022-04-16", 0.183], ["2022-04-17", 0.183], ["2022-04-17", 0.181], ["2022-04-18", 0.181], ["2022-04-19", 0.177], ["2022-04-19", 0.177], ["2022-04-20", 0.176], ["2022-04-21", 0.175], ["2022-04-21", 0.158], ["2022-04-22", 0.123], ["2022-04-22", 0.12]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10044/ | Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. Cherkasy has experienced major attacks in the last several days, resulting in at least one death.
The city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if Cherkasy is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022.
We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports | true | 2022-04-22 | Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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The city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if Vinnytsia is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022.
We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports | true | 2022-04-22 | Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-02 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10046/ukraine--russia-peace-talks-2022/#comment-102414", "https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3585503-president-enacts-nsdc-decision-on-impossibility-of-negotiations-with-putin.html", "https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-news-live-kyiv-093124483.html", "https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1575852333195743232", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-russia-annex-occupied-ukrainian-regions-ceremony-rcna49936", "https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1569265948061728770", "https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1569266310235967488"] | binary | [["2022-03-02", 0.3], ["2022-03-04", 0.379], ["2022-03-07", 0.355], ["2022-03-10", 0.354], ["2022-03-13", 0.374], ["2022-03-17", 0.393], ["2022-03-19", 0.397], ["2022-03-22", 0.409], ["2022-03-25", 0.415], ["2022-03-28", 0.418], ["2022-03-31", 0.437], ["2022-04-03", 0.443], ["2022-04-06", 0.443], ["2022-04-09", 0.442], ["2022-04-12", 0.441], ["2022-04-15", 0.432], ["2022-04-18", 0.417], ["2022-04-21", 0.408], ["2022-04-23", 0.406], ["2022-04-26", 0.402], ["2022-05-01", 0.399], ["2022-05-05", 0.397], ["2022-05-07", 0.396], ["2022-05-10", 0.396], ["2022-05-14", 0.394], ["2022-05-18", 0.391], ["2022-05-22", 0.387], ["2022-05-27", 0.383], ["2022-05-29", 0.38], ["2022-05-31", 0.376], ["2022-06-03", 0.365], ["2022-06-05", 0.363], ["2022-06-08", 0.362], ["2022-06-10", 0.36], ["2022-06-12", 0.36], ["2022-06-15", 0.358], ["2022-06-18", 0.357], ["2022-06-21", 0.357], ["2022-06-23", 0.355], ["2022-06-26", 0.352], ["2022-06-28", 0.349], ["2022-07-01", 0.347], ["2022-07-03", 0.346], ["2022-07-06", 0.347], ["2022-07-10", 0.345], ["2022-07-12", 0.345], ["2022-07-15", 0.343], ["2022-07-18", 0.342], ["2022-07-23", 0.342], ["2022-07-25", 0.34], ["2022-07-27", 0.34], ["2022-07-31", 0.33], ["2022-08-02", 0.328], ["2022-08-06", 0.325], ["2022-08-10", 0.324], ["2022-08-13", 0.323], ["2022-08-16", 0.323], ["2022-08-21", 0.32], ["2022-08-23", 0.318], ["2022-08-25", 0.316], ["2022-08-28", 0.316], ["2022-08-31", 0.315], ["2022-09-02", 0.315], ["2022-09-05", 0.315], ["2022-09-08", 0.313], ["2022-09-10", 0.307], ["2022-09-13", 0.3], ["2022-09-17", 0.297], ["2022-09-20", 0.293], ["2022-09-22", 0.291], ["2022-09-25", 0.289], ["2022-09-28", 0.287], ["2022-10-01", 0.276], ["2022-10-04", 0.271], ["2022-10-06", 0.267], ["2022-10-09", 0.265], ["2022-10-12", 0.262], ["2022-10-16", 0.26], ["2022-10-20", 0.26], ["2022-10-25", 0.259], ["2022-10-28", 0.259], ["2022-11-01", 0.252], ["2022-11-04", 0.247], ["2022-11-07", 0.246], ["2022-11-10", 0.245], ["2022-11-13", 0.244], ["2022-11-16", 0.242], ["2022-11-18", 0.241], ["2022-11-21", 0.241], ["2022-11-24", 0.241], ["2022-11-28", 0.238], ["2022-12-01", 0.237], ["2022-12-04", 0.237], ["2022-12-07", 0.236], ["2022-12-11", 0.236], ["2022-12-15", 0.234], ["2022-12-18", 0.232], ["2022-12-22", 0.232], ["2022-12-26", 0.231], ["2022-12-31", 0.203], ["2022-12-31", 0.191]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10046/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will they first meet?
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?
As Reuters reports:
"Officials from Russia and Ukraine ended peace talks on Monday (February, 28th, 2022) and will return to their respective capitals for further consultations before a second round of negotiations."
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Russian President, Vladimir Putin were not present at this first round of peace talks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Direct conversation between both Presidents could potentially lead to an increase in the likelihood of a ceasefire between the two states. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if, at any time between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have a direct conversation with the intention to discuss a peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (the conversation can take place in person, by phone, by video conference or similar), according to statements by both Ukranian and Russian governments, or according to at least three credible media sources.
If either of these men is no longer the president of his respective country, this question will resolve ambiguously.
If they meet after a peace arrangement has been successuflly reached, or they meet during a ceasefire that is not directly for the purpose of this meeting, this will not count toward resolution | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-02 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11113/date-of-end-of-martial-law-in-ukraine/#comment-101822", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-russia-annex-occupied-ukrainian-regions-ceremony-rcna49936", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10949/russian-leader-disapproves-of-the-invasion/", "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965993", "https://insightprediction.com/m/232/when-will-the-russia-ukraine-war-end", "https://archive.ph/eSojA", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-russias-biggest-cities-ukraine-war-fades-to-background-noise-11656670347", "https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/chief-executive-leadership-institute-research-insights-business-retreats-and-sanctions", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/outraged-by-strike-odesa-ukraine-still-prepares-resume-grain-exports-2022-07-24/", "https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1550213479591825408"] | binary | [["2022-03-02", 0.65], ["2022-03-04", 0.712], ["2022-03-07", 0.684], ["2022-03-12", 0.683], ["2022-03-14", 0.693], ["2022-03-16", 0.715], ["2022-03-19", 0.723], ["2022-03-21", 0.723], ["2022-03-25", 0.721], ["2022-03-28", 0.722], ["2022-03-31", 0.728], ["2022-04-02", 0.73], ["2022-04-05", 0.732], ["2022-04-06", 0.732], ["2022-04-09", 0.729], ["2022-04-11", 0.73], ["2022-04-14", 0.727], ["2022-04-18", 0.71], ["2022-04-21", 0.705], ["2022-04-25", 0.691], ["2022-04-28", 0.679], ["2022-05-01", 0.675], ["2022-05-03", 0.672], ["2022-05-06", 0.669], ["2022-05-11", 0.665], ["2022-05-14", 0.658], ["2022-05-16", 0.657], ["2022-05-19", 0.653], ["2022-05-23", 0.65], ["2022-05-26", 0.65], ["2022-05-28", 0.649], ["2022-05-30", 0.646], ["2022-06-02", 0.639], ["2022-06-04", 0.634], ["2022-06-07", 0.629], ["2022-06-09", 0.625], ["2022-06-14", 0.612], ["2022-06-17", 0.606], ["2022-06-19", 0.602], ["2022-06-21", 0.6], ["2022-06-23", 0.598], ["2022-06-27", 0.596], ["2022-06-28", 0.592], ["2022-07-01", 0.589], ["2022-07-05", 0.588], ["2022-07-08", 0.587], ["2022-07-12", 0.586], ["2022-07-15", 0.58], ["2022-07-17", 0.579], ["2022-07-21", 0.576], ["2022-07-24", 0.57], ["2022-07-29", 0.541], ["2022-08-02", 0.516], ["2022-08-06", 0.506], ["2022-08-10", 0.503], ["2022-08-13", 0.503], ["2022-08-18", 0.501], ["2022-08-20", 0.499], ["2022-08-22", 0.498], ["2022-08-25", 0.494], ["2022-08-27", 0.49], ["2022-08-29", 0.485], ["2022-09-01", 0.483], ["2022-09-03", 0.482], ["2022-09-05", 0.482], ["2022-09-08", 0.477], ["2022-09-10", 0.475], ["2022-09-13", 0.473], ["2022-09-16", 0.47], ["2022-09-19", 0.466], ["2022-09-21", 0.45], ["2022-09-24", 0.444], ["2022-09-27", 0.44], ["2022-09-30", 0.435], ["2022-10-03", 0.431], ["2022-10-05", 0.431], ["2022-10-08", 0.43], ["2022-10-12", 0.416], ["2022-10-15", 0.411], ["2022-10-18", 0.409], ["2022-10-21", 0.409], ["2022-10-24", 0.407], ["2022-10-27", 0.405], ["2022-10-30", 0.403], ["2022-11-03", 0.397], ["2022-11-06", 0.397], ["2022-11-10", 0.396], ["2022-11-13", 0.394], ["2022-11-17", 0.391], ["2022-11-21", 0.387], ["2022-11-24", 0.385], ["2022-11-28", 0.382], ["2022-12-02", 0.38], ["2022-12-06", 0.379], ["2022-12-10", 0.378], ["2022-12-13", 0.377], ["2022-12-17", 0.376], ["2022-12-22", 0.374], ["2022-12-25", 0.372], ["2022-12-29", 0.371], ["2022-12-31", 0.364]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10050/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?
If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will they first meet?
On Feb 28, 2022 Ukrainian and Russian officials started cease-fire talks on the Belarusian border. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2023.
The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.
(See the edit history in the fine print below)
Fine Print
Edit March 2, 2022: The resolution criterion regarding negative resolution "if an announced cease-fire breaks down in 2022 before lasting 30 days" has been edited to read: "if all the announced cease-fires in 2022 break down before lasting 30 days."
Edit July 28, 2022 by casens: I added a clarification that the ceasefire must apply to all military operations, and that limited ceasefires are not sufficient. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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The US currently relies heavily on Russian gas and oil imports:
In 2021, Russia accounted for 21% of all U.S. gasoline imports, with Canada second at 17%. By value, Russian imports increased 71.05%, which is slightly less than gasoline imports from the world, which increased 80.53%. The Russian total was $12.78 billion.
An anonymous senior official at the White House told Politico on Feb 24, 2022 that:
"'no option is off the table,' but 'starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit. And as we have said repeatedly on the record, on background [and] off the record, our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours.'"
This question explores whether the US will reverse its decision to avoid sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as the date when the United States sanctions on Russian oil or gas go into effect, in any form. These sanctions may be on the government of Russia or a Russian company, and do not need to apply to 100% of oil & gas products.
Resolution will be provided through at least three reputable news reports or an official announcement from the White House | true | 2022-08-31 | Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-02 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10052/nato-enforced-nfz-in-ukraine/#comment-84235"] | binary | [["2022-03-02", 0.03], ["2022-03-05", 0.065], ["2022-03-09", 0.069], ["2022-03-11", 0.068], ["2022-03-14", 0.069], ["2022-03-17", 0.066], ["2022-03-20", 0.066], ["2022-03-24", 0.065], ["2022-03-26", 0.067], ["2022-03-29", 0.068], ["2022-04-01", 0.066], ["2022-04-04", 0.066], ["2022-04-06", 0.065], ["2022-04-08", 0.065], ["2022-04-12", 0.065], ["2022-04-16", 0.065], ["2022-04-18", 0.064], ["2022-04-20", 0.064], ["2022-04-23", 0.064], ["2022-04-26", 0.064], ["2022-05-01", 0.064], ["2022-05-04", 0.064], ["2022-05-07", 0.063], ["2022-05-09", 0.063], ["2022-05-13", 0.063], ["2022-05-16", 0.062], ["2022-05-20", 0.062], ["2022-05-22", 0.062], ["2022-05-24", 0.062], ["2022-05-28", 0.062], ["2022-06-01", 0.062], ["2022-06-03", 0.061], ["2022-06-05", 0.061], ["2022-06-09", 0.061], ["2022-06-12", 0.062], ["2022-06-15", 0.062], ["2022-06-18", 0.062], ["2022-06-21", 0.062], ["2022-06-23", 0.062], ["2022-06-28", 0.062], ["2022-06-30", 0.061], ["2022-07-02", 0.061], ["2022-07-05", 0.06], ["2022-07-08", 0.059], ["2022-07-12", 0.059], ["2022-07-15", 0.059], ["2022-07-18", 0.059], ["2022-07-20", 0.059], ["2022-07-24", 0.059], ["2022-07-27", 0.059], ["2022-07-29", 0.058], ["2022-08-02", 0.059], ["2022-08-05", 0.058], ["2022-08-11", 0.058], ["2022-08-15", 0.058], ["2022-08-18", 0.058], ["2022-08-22", 0.058], ["2022-08-25", 0.057], ["2022-08-31", 0.057], ["2022-09-02", 0.057], ["2022-09-04", 0.057], ["2022-09-07", 0.057], ["2022-09-09", 0.057], ["2022-09-11", 0.057], ["2022-09-13", 0.057], ["2022-09-16", 0.056], ["2022-09-19", 0.056], ["2022-09-21", 0.057], ["2022-09-25", 0.057], ["2022-09-28", 0.057], ["2022-09-30", 0.057], ["2022-10-04", 0.056], ["2022-10-08", 0.056], ["2022-10-11", 0.056], ["2022-10-12", 0.057], ["2022-10-16", 0.057], ["2022-10-18", 0.057], ["2022-10-21", 0.056], ["2022-10-24", 0.055], ["2022-10-26", 0.055], ["2022-10-29", 0.055], ["2022-10-31", 0.055], ["2022-11-02", 0.055], ["2022-11-07", 0.055], ["2022-11-10", 0.054], ["2022-11-13", 0.054], ["2022-11-16", 0.054], ["2022-11-20", 0.054], ["2022-11-23", 0.054], ["2022-11-26", 0.054], ["2022-11-27", 0.054], ["2022-12-01", 0.053], ["2022-12-02", 0.053], ["2022-12-05", 0.053], ["2022-12-08", 0.053], ["2022-12-12", 0.053], ["2022-12-17", 0.053], ["2022-12-20", 0.053], ["2022-12-24", 0.052], ["2022-12-28", 0.052], ["2022-12-31", 0.045]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10052/ | There have been requests for a NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine. Commentators have warned that this risks a war between the US and Russia, the world's largest nuclear powers.
US Press Secretary Jen Psaki told Axios on February 28, 2022 that a no-fly zone in Ukraine:
"would require... implementation by the U.S. military"
Psaki continued:
"That is definitely escalatory, that would potentially put us into a place where we're in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something the president wants to do."
Despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's requests to NATO leaders that an NFZ be implemented, the NATO Secretary-General has stated that NATO does not intend to move into Ukraine:
"We have no intentions of moving into Ukraine neither on the ground or in the airspace," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told MSNBC on Monday. "We have a responsibility to make sure that this doesn't spiral out of control that escalates even further into concern for full-fledged war in Europe involving NATO allies."
The UK also appears reluctant to support an NFZ:
UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has also ruled out the idea, saying that "NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia." | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if NATO declares a No-Fly Zone over any part of Ukraine by December 31, 2022.
This question will be resolved based on a NATO government source or 5 reputable sources. No planes need to be shot down for this question to resolve positively | true | 2023-01-01 | Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-17 | 2022-03-02 | ["https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and", "https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10053/putin-charged-for-war-crimes/#comment-116260", "https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and", "https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrant-against-putin-over-alleged-war-crimes-2023-03-17/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter", "https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1636749111234887680", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/icc-seek-warrants-against-russians-over-alleged-ukraine-war-crimes-source-2023-03-13/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.aol.com/peoples-court-tries-vladimir-putin-123734101.html", "https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1623295206714998784", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_al-Werfalli", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14350/special-tribunal-on-war-in-ukraine/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/12/08/1141499704/olexandra-matviichuk-is-fighting-for-accountability-for-war-crimes-in-ukraine", "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-leaders-statement-12-december-2022", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60690688", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/russia-ukraine-war-un-report-details-accounts-of-rape-torture-and-executions.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1666994833", "https://twitter.com/RJukneviciene/status/1570842219195830274?t=AjOw4XmgcOWlqz0LRZUSmA&s=19"] | binary | [["2022-03-02", 0.67], ["2022-03-04", 0.582], ["2022-03-07", 0.538], ["2022-03-10", 0.531], ["2022-03-15", 0.519], ["2022-03-20", 0.521], ["2022-03-25", 0.524], ["2022-03-28", 0.523], ["2022-03-31", 0.523], ["2022-04-04", 0.53], ["2022-04-09", 0.54], ["2022-04-13", 0.539], ["2022-04-17", 0.539], ["2022-04-22", 0.539], ["2022-04-26", 0.537], ["2022-05-01", 0.538], ["2022-05-05", 0.537], ["2022-05-08", 0.536], ["2022-05-11", 0.535], ["2022-05-14", 0.533], ["2022-05-18", 0.533], ["2022-05-22", 0.531], ["2022-05-25", 0.531], ["2022-05-30", 0.53], ["2022-06-02", 0.529], ["2022-06-07", 0.528], ["2022-06-11", 0.528], ["2022-06-13", 0.529], ["2022-06-18", 0.528], ["2022-06-20", 0.527], ["2022-06-24", 0.525], ["2022-06-28", 0.524], ["2022-07-02", 0.523], ["2022-07-06", 0.523], ["2022-07-09", 0.523], ["2022-07-12", 0.522], ["2022-07-15", 0.522], ["2022-07-20", 0.522], ["2022-07-26", 0.522], ["2022-07-30", 0.522], ["2022-08-01", 0.521], ["2022-08-05", 0.52], ["2022-08-08", 0.519], ["2022-08-13", 0.518], ["2022-08-17", 0.518], ["2022-08-19", 0.517], ["2022-08-26", 0.517], ["2022-08-29", 0.516], ["2022-09-02", 0.516], ["2022-09-06", 0.516], ["2022-09-09", 0.514], ["2022-09-13", 0.512], ["2022-09-17", 0.512], ["2022-09-22", 0.512], ["2022-09-24", 0.51], ["2022-09-30", 0.509], ["2022-10-05", 0.508], ["2022-10-07", 0.508], ["2022-10-11", 0.507], ["2022-10-15", 0.507], ["2022-10-17", 0.507], ["2022-10-22", 0.506], ["2022-10-26", 0.506], ["2022-10-29", 0.504], ["2022-11-01", 0.503], ["2022-11-04", 0.503], ["2022-11-08", 0.503], ["2022-11-11", 0.503], ["2022-11-14", 0.502], ["2022-11-17", 0.499], ["2022-11-22", 0.496], ["2022-11-26", 0.496], ["2022-11-28", 0.493], ["2022-12-01", 0.493], ["2022-12-05", 0.491], ["2022-12-09", 0.489], ["2022-12-13", 0.488], ["2022-12-17", 0.487], ["2022-12-21", 0.486], ["2022-12-25", 0.485], ["2022-12-27", 0.484], ["2022-12-31", 0.478], ["2023-01-05", 0.471], ["2023-01-08", 0.468], ["2023-01-12", 0.467], ["2023-01-16", 0.465], ["2023-01-20", 0.458], ["2023-01-24", 0.452], ["2023-01-29", 0.45], ["2023-02-02", 0.449], ["2023-02-05", 0.447], ["2023-02-09", 0.445], ["2023-02-13", 0.444], ["2023-02-17", 0.443], ["2023-02-22", 0.438], ["2023-02-27", 0.435], ["2023-03-03", 0.434], ["2023-03-07", 0.432], ["2023-03-11", 0.43], ["2023-03-15", 0.427], ["2023-03-17", 0.427]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10053/ | As the New York Times in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine reports:
"President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for an international tribunal to investigate Russia for war crimes."
Also Lithuania’s prime minister, Ingrida Simonyte, told the Washington Post:
“What Putin is doing is just a murder and nothing else, and I hope he will be in The Hague.”
The International Criminal Court sits in the Hague and prosecutes individuals for the international crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and the crime of aggression. Its prosecutor has announced that he will launch an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if Vladimir Putin is charged by January 1, 2024 by the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague for any war crime in relation to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
War crimes in this case will include any and all crimes that Vladimir Putin may commit during his offensive attack on Ukraine. This will include, but is not limited to, crimes against humanity, genocide, contempt of court, or the officially designated list of war crimes by the UN.
The UN lists for all crimes under the labels 'crimes against humanity' and 'war crimes' can be found here and here, respectively.
Edit March 2, 2022: The ICC announcing either an indictment or an arrest warrant is sufficient for positive resolution.
According to Wikipedia:
An individual is indicted when a Pre-Trial Chamber issues either an arrest warrant or a summons after it finds that "there are reasonable grounds to believe that the person has committed a crime within the jurisdiction of the Court".
_An arrest warrant is issued where it appears necessary "to ensure the person's appearance at trial, to ensure that the person does not obstruct or endanger the investigation or the court proceedings, or, where applicable, to prevent the person from continuing with the commission of that crime or a related crime which is within the jurisdiction of the Court and which arises out of the same circumstances" | true | 2023-12-31 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | metaculus | 1 |
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We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions under the de facto control of the Russian military.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports | true | 2022-04-23 | Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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According to Wikipedia:
[On Feb 24] The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city.
At 14:25 (UTC+2), the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city.
On 26 February, Ukrainian forces claimed that they defeated a Russian force that attempted to take the city. Several Russian tanks were allegedly seized by Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian government also claims that Russian BM-21 Grad rockets had hit hospitals and kindergartens in Chernihiv, though this claim was not independently verified.
On 27 February, Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces damaged much of Chernihiv's city center with missiles, including the destruction of a historic cinema. Russian forces later claimed that they had completely blockaded the city. Ukrainian sources also claimed that on 27 February, 56 Tankers were destroyed by the Ukrainian Army, containing fuel for Russian military units.
Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?
This question will resolve positively if Chernihiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022.
We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports. | true | 2022-04-22 | Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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2023-04-04 | 2022-03-03 | ["https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_67375.htm", "https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1642844719725117441", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1640388034221821952", "https://apnews.com/article/finland-nato-membership-president-legislation-884ca75e7768f11f0d1efb222b532916", "https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/24/viktor-orban-promises-hungary-will", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1636739284739792897?s=19", "https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1635961575281442818", "https://apnews.com/article/sweden-finland-turkey-nato-membership-dc828c3b92340e0f2b034d52a36f0c12?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter", "https://apnews.com/article/nato-finland-sweden-turkey-hungary-membership-accession-224050ce215b794ab494d3e5ca2e7bce?utm_medium=AP_Europe&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow", "https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1630109120388026369", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/sweden-signals-it-may-have-to-follow-finland-on-path-to-nato?utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/finland-denies-rumours-of-joining-nato-without-sweden/", "https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1622682393613070339", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/#comment-114879", "https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20230202-us-says-f-16-deal-contingent-on-turkey-s-support-for-nato-expansion", "https://yle.fi/a/74-20016118", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/f-16-deal-contingent-on-turkey-s-support-for-nato-expansion-syria/6923086.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkeys-erdogan-signals-finlands-nato-bid-may-be-considered-over-sweden-2023-01-29/", "https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/morning/the-turkish-roadblock-to-an-expanded-nato/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-says-it-is-meaningless-restore-nato-dialogue-with-sweden-finland-2023-01-26/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-says-timeout-needed-talks-with-turkey-over-nato-bid-2023-01-24/)", "https://www.reuters.com/world/sweden-finland-must-send-up-130-terrorists-turkey-nato-bid-2023-01-16/", "https://www.ft.com/content/9af143bf-1766-4ffb-a0de-e6f2c2898917", "https://cepa.org/article/erdogans-nato-needling/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/#comment-109642", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-membership-for-sweden-and-finland-on-track-officials-say-11670531221", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-membership-for-sweden-and-finland-on-track-officials-say-11670531221", "https://apple.news/AVqi_5wkUQCOAg_xLnAg1Pg", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/8/turkey-demands-sweden-take-concrete-steps-prior-to-nato-approval", "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/09/22/u-s-ambassador-finland-and-sweden-in-nato-by-christmas-00058404", "https://www.voanews.com/a/turkey-erdogan-renews-threat-to-block-nato-bids-by-sweden-finland/6771840.html", "https://twitter.com/afp/status/1576193638341779459"] | binary | [["2022-03-06", 0.34], ["2022-03-08", 0.501], ["2022-03-12", 0.42], ["2022-03-14", 0.414], ["2022-03-18", 0.425], ["2022-03-24", 0.424], ["2022-03-26", 0.424], ["2022-03-29", 0.428], ["2022-04-01", 0.431], ["2022-04-05", 0.489], ["2022-04-09", 0.569], ["2022-04-12", 0.615], ["2022-04-17", 0.657], ["2022-04-20", 0.663], ["2022-04-24", 0.677], ["2022-04-27", 0.695], ["2022-04-30", 0.699], ["2022-05-04", 0.708], ["2022-05-08", 0.711], ["2022-05-10", 0.712], ["2022-05-14", 0.738], ["2022-05-18", 0.754], ["2022-05-22", 0.757], 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Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?
NATO is an is an intergovernmental military alliance among 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. Established in the aftermath of World War II.
NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party.
Finland maintained neutrality during the Cold War. But has since moved towards cooperation with NATO. For example by joining the NATO Response Force.
France 24 reports
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the status quo in traditionally non-aligned Finland and Sweden, ushering in an "historic" surge in support for NATO, "exceptional" arms exports and defiance to Moscow's demands.
Stockholm and Helsinki have ruled out applying to join the NATO military alliance for the time being but the two countries have never been so close to taking the plunge, analysts say.
"Anything is possible at the moment and the signal from NATO countries is that a membership application can be processed in a very short time-span," said Zebulon Carlander, defence analyst with the Society and Defence organisation in Sweden. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the 1st of January 2024, declares that Finland has joined the organization and its membership has been ratified by member states.
[March 13, 2022: question edited, see changes in the fine print]
Fine Print
*Edit March 13 2022:
Changed "This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the 1st of January 2024, declares that Finland has joined the organization" to read "This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the 1st of January 2024, declares that Finland has joined the organization and its membership has been ratified by member states."* | true | 2023-12-30 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | metaculus | 1 |
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We will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports | true | 2022-04-22 | Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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The Russian FSB claim that the group now "ceases to exist," but although the crime took place against property held by US nationals, it appears that the arrested gang members will not be extradited to the U.S for trial and will remain in Russia to face the Russian legal system. | Security & Defense | To resolve to positively, at least four of the following eight individuals (Roman Muromsky, Andrey Bessonov, Golovachuk M.A., Zayets A.N., Khansvyarov R.A., Korotayev D.V., Puzyrevsky D.D. and Malozemov A.V.) must be physically imprisoned on May 15, 2022 at 12:00pm GMT. This will resolve based on publicly available information on June 1, 2022.
House arrest does not satisfy this question for resolution purposes. Imprisonment can occur in any country | true | 2022-05-15 | Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-07 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/KP?from=1646629200&until=1654142399"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.58], ["2022-03-17", 0.585], ["2022-03-17", 0.458], ["2022-03-17", 0.382], ["2022-03-17", 0.33], ["2022-03-17", 0.333], ["2022-03-17", 0.317], ["2022-03-17", 0.317], ["2022-03-17", 0.301], ["2022-03-18", 0.302], ["2022-03-18", 0.302], ["2022-03-18", 0.271], ["2022-03-18", 0.271], ["2022-03-19", 0.294], ["2022-03-19", 0.323], ["2022-03-19", 0.378], ["2022-03-19", 0.389], ["2022-03-21", 0.363], ["2022-03-21", 0.376], ["2022-03-22", 0.377], ["2022-03-22", 0.377], ["2022-03-22", 0.381], ["2022-03-22", 0.381], ["2022-03-23", 0.369], ["2022-03-24", 0.38], ["2022-03-24", 0.38], ["2022-03-25", 0.366], ["2022-03-26", 0.365], ["2022-03-26", 0.364], ["2022-03-26", 0.364], ["2022-03-27", 0.365], ["2022-03-27", 0.365], ["2022-03-27", 0.364], ["2022-03-27", 0.362], ["2022-03-28", 0.36], ["2022-03-31", 0.36], ["2022-03-31", 0.352], ["2022-04-13", 0.35], ["2022-04-18", 0.35], ["2022-04-21", 0.362], ["2022-04-27", 0.364], ["2022-04-27", 0.364], ["2022-04-27", 0.364], ["2022-05-02", 0.364], ["2022-05-03", 0.366], ["2022-05-04", 0.359], ["2022-05-09", 0.357], ["2022-05-11", 0.358], ["2022-05-11", 0.358], ["2022-05-11", 0.347], ["2022-05-11", 0.343], ["2022-05-11", 0.342], ["2022-05-13", 0.342], ["2022-05-13", 0.333], ["2022-05-14", 0.333], ["2022-05-14", 0.329], ["2022-05-16", 0.328], ["2022-05-16", 0.323], ["2022-05-16", 0.323], ["2022-05-17", 0.327], ["2022-05-30", 0.332], ["2022-06-01", 0.328], ["2022-06-02", 0.327], ["2022-06-02", 0.325], ["2022-06-03", 0.325], ["2022-06-03", 0.328], ["2022-06-04", 0.328], ["2022-06-07", 0.326], ["2022-06-10", 0.326], ["2022-06-11", 0.326], ["2022-06-11", 0.327], ["2022-06-11", 0.327], ["2022-06-12", 0.338], ["2022-06-12", 0.331], ["2022-06-12", 0.331], ["2022-06-14", 0.331], ["2022-06-16", 0.328], ["2022-06-17", 0.328], ["2022-06-17", 0.332], ["2022-06-17", 0.332], ["2022-06-18", 0.331], ["2022-06-18", 0.331], ["2022-06-19", 0.327], ["2022-06-19", 0.327], ["2022-06-19", 0.325], ["2022-06-20", 0.326], ["2022-06-21", 0.326], ["2022-06-21", 0.321], ["2022-06-24", 0.318], ["2022-06-25", 0.318], ["2022-06-28", 0.317], ["2022-06-28", 0.317], ["2022-06-30", 0.318], ["2022-06-30", 0.318], ["2022-06-30", 0.312], ["2022-06-30", 0.312], ["2022-06-30", 0.312], ["2022-07-01", 0.312], ["2022-07-01", 0.31]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10107/ | Though North Korea's internet infrastructure is limited, the country's hackers have a reputation for aggressive cyber operations against other countries -- actions which have threatened or conducted operations in retaliation. Public reporting indicates that the entirety of North Korea's internet has gone offline twice in the first month of 2022. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if North Korea has internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 to August 1, 2022 for a period of at least one hour. For the purposes of this question, an "Internet Failure" will be defined as the unavailability for at least 50% of North Korean users of any critical layer of TCP/IP networks supporting the world wide web or email.
This question will resolve according to credible media reports. Reports may be published between March 8, 2022 to October 1, 2022, so long as the internet failure reported had begun before August 1.
To reduce ambiguity, we will count calendar days in North Korea during which there is an internet failure as defined above. If five separate 1 hour failures occur on the same day, only one of those failures will count. If a single failure lasts 4 days, it will resolve this question yes | true | 2022-07-01 | Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-03 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/03/politics/2022-election-security-fbi/index.html", "https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-russia-ukraine-campaigns-presidential-ea913f2b3b818651a9db1327adaa330a", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/03/politics/2022-election-security-fbi/index.html", "https://phys.org/news/2022-09-facebook-chinese-network-americans-abortion.html"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.683], ["2022-03-17", 0.683], ["2022-03-17", 0.653], ["2022-03-18", 0.64], ["2022-03-18", 0.639], ["2022-03-19", 0.669], ["2022-03-21", 0.669], ["2022-03-21", 0.651], ["2022-03-22", 0.656], ["2022-03-23", 0.667], ["2022-03-24", 0.667], ["2022-03-24", 0.67], ["2022-03-24", 0.67], ["2022-03-25", 0.685], ["2022-03-26", 0.668], ["2022-03-27", 0.66], ["2022-03-27", 0.659], ["2022-03-27", 0.662], ["2022-03-28", 0.662], ["2022-03-29", 0.661], ["2022-03-31", 0.661], ["2022-03-31", 0.644], ["2022-04-01", 0.644], ["2022-04-06", 0.646], ["2022-04-07", 0.647], ["2022-04-08", 0.65], ["2022-04-14", 0.651], ["2022-04-14", 0.653], ["2022-04-15", 0.653], ["2022-04-15", 0.653], ["2022-04-16", 0.656], ["2022-04-16", 0.656], ["2022-04-18", 0.656], ["2022-04-19", 0.654], ["2022-04-19", 0.657], ["2022-04-20", 0.657], ["2022-05-01", 0.657], ["2022-05-04", 0.654], ["2022-05-06", 0.654], ["2022-05-11", 0.655], ["2022-05-11", 0.646], ["2022-05-12", 0.647], ["2022-05-14", 0.646], ["2022-05-14", 0.648], ["2022-05-14", 0.649], ["2022-05-17", 0.648], ["2022-05-18", 0.648], ["2022-05-30", 0.652], ["2022-06-03", 0.651], ["2022-06-03", 0.653], ["2022-06-04", 0.655], ["2022-06-04", 0.655], ["2022-06-05", 0.657], ["2022-06-06", 0.657], ["2022-06-06", 0.657], ["2022-06-08", 0.657], ["2022-06-09", 0.658], ["2022-06-10", 0.657], ["2022-06-11", 0.657], ["2022-06-12", 0.657], ["2022-06-13", 0.658], ["2022-06-13", 0.657], ["2022-06-14", 0.657], ["2022-06-16", 0.658], ["2022-06-17", 0.66], ["2022-06-19", 0.66], ["2022-06-20", 0.661], ["2022-06-21", 0.661], ["2022-06-28", 0.661], ["2022-07-03", 0.663], ["2022-07-04", 0.663], ["2022-07-05", 0.663], ["2022-07-12", 0.663], ["2022-07-12", 0.665], ["2022-07-15", 0.666], ["2022-07-17", 0.666], ["2022-07-20", 0.666], ["2022-07-20", 0.666], ["2022-07-22", 0.669], ["2022-07-24", 0.669], ["2022-07-27", 0.67], ["2022-07-31", 0.67], ["2022-08-02", 0.67], ["2022-08-05", 0.67], ["2022-08-09", 0.67], ["2022-08-23", 0.673], ["2022-08-24", 0.673], ["2022-09-03", 0.673], ["2022-09-09", 0.669], ["2022-09-16", 0.672], ["2022-09-19", 0.672], ["2022-09-22", 0.67], ["2022-09-22", 0.67], ["2022-09-27", 0.67], ["2022-09-28", 0.676], ["2022-09-28", 0.678], ["2022-09-29", 0.678], ["2022-09-29", 0.678], ["2022-10-02", 0.677], ["2022-10-02", 0.678]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10108/ | The United States Congress found evidence of Russian involvement and interference in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The US midterm elections will now be held in 2022 and it remains to be seen whether foreign interference from Russia will take place. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if by May 31, 2023 a report is published that makes all three of the following claims:
That Russian actors attempted (successfully or not) to influence the 2022 US midterm elections,
That the agents, directors, or financial supporters of the campaign are Russian actors (state or non-state).
That the campaign includes disruption of US social or news media with inauthentic user behavior or content promotion manipulation, the promotion of false or misleading information, or leaking private or classified US information | true | 2022-11-01 | Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-cyber-assault-taiwan-60-minutes-2022-10-09/", "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-tensions/China-intensifies-disinformation-cyberattacks-on-Taiwan-report", "http://www.nids.mod.go.jp/publication/chinareport/pdf/china_report_EN_web_2023_A01.pdf"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.55], ["2022-03-17", 0.56], ["2022-03-19", 0.271], ["2022-03-21", 0.282], ["2022-03-22", 0.312], ["2022-03-24", 0.312], ["2022-03-25", 0.31], ["2022-03-26", 0.307], ["2022-03-28", 0.283], ["2022-03-31", 0.276], ["2022-04-02", 0.288], ["2022-04-03", 0.293], ["2022-04-09", 0.293], ["2022-04-13", 0.285], ["2022-04-14", 0.275], ["2022-04-16", 0.273], ["2022-04-18", 0.274], ["2022-04-21", 0.274], ["2022-04-22", 0.274], ["2022-05-04", 0.277], ["2022-05-06", 0.277], ["2022-05-11", 0.276], ["2022-05-12", 0.272], ["2022-05-14", 0.269], ["2022-05-15", 0.269], ["2022-05-18", 0.267], ["2022-05-24", 0.267], ["2022-05-29", 0.266], ["2022-05-30", 0.266], ["2022-06-01", 0.266], ["2022-06-03", 0.264], ["2022-06-08", 0.265], ["2022-06-10", 0.26], ["2022-06-12", 0.263], ["2022-06-14", 0.263], ["2022-06-15", 0.271], ["2022-06-16", 0.27], ["2022-06-17", 0.27], ["2022-06-18", 0.27], ["2022-06-21", 0.271], ["2022-06-23", 0.272], ["2022-06-28", 0.272], ["2022-07-05", 0.272], ["2022-07-12", 0.272], ["2022-07-14", 0.272], ["2022-07-15", 0.272], ["2022-07-17", 0.272], ["2022-07-19", 0.271], ["2022-07-20", 0.271], ["2022-07-21", 0.271], ["2022-07-26", 0.271], ["2022-07-27", 0.27], ["2022-07-29", 0.27], ["2022-07-31", 0.271], ["2022-08-01", 0.271], ["2022-08-03", 0.281], ["2022-08-05", 0.288], ["2022-08-07", 0.287], ["2022-08-10", 0.284], ["2022-08-10", 0.284], ["2022-08-13", 0.284], ["2022-08-14", 0.283], ["2022-08-21", 0.284], ["2022-09-05", 0.279], ["2022-09-06", 0.284], ["2022-09-21", 0.282], ["2022-09-23", 0.28], ["2022-09-25", 0.279], ["2022-09-26", 0.279], ["2022-09-28", 0.275], ["2022-10-05", 0.27], ["2022-10-07", 0.268], ["2022-10-16", 0.268], ["2022-10-16", 0.268], ["2022-10-21", 0.268], ["2022-10-21", 0.271], ["2022-10-28", 0.271], ["2022-10-30", 0.265], ["2022-10-31", 0.264], ["2022-11-02", 0.246], ["2022-11-15", 0.245], ["2022-11-16", 0.244], ["2022-11-21", 0.244], ["2022-11-22", 0.244], ["2022-11-24", 0.242], ["2022-11-25", 0.242], ["2022-11-28", 0.24], ["2022-12-02", 0.244], ["2022-12-02", 0.242], ["2022-12-05", 0.242], ["2022-12-06", 0.236], ["2022-12-08", 0.236], ["2022-12-11", 0.231], ["2022-12-16", 0.232], ["2022-12-18", 0.225], ["2022-12-20", 0.216], ["2022-12-22", 0.213], ["2022-12-24", 0.212], ["2022-12-29", 0.212], ["2022-12-31", 0.166], ["2022-12-31", 0.152]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10109/ | In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China -- which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory -- were at a 40-year high. Similarly, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that China has been taking "increasingly aggressive actions" towards Taiwan.
Assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University suggested that cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources. | Security & Defense | Will China make a successful cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?
This question will resolve positively if any of Taiwan's 16 critical infrastructure sectors identified by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security are attacked by Chinese actors between March 8, 2022 to December 31, 2022.
The affected infrastructure must be physically located in Taiwan – that is, it may not simply be an asset owned by a Taiwanese national and located abroad. As such, the affected entity must be within 40 kilometers of the island to qualify.
The Attribution of the attack may be issued by the United States, a Five Eyes nation, or a NATO member; or by reputable cybersecurity companies or research organizations; or by at least three major news media outlets. Attribution must be formal – i.e. in an on-the-record speech or in writing. A publication that uses any phrases such as "China is suspected," or "China is possibly," or "China is likely" will not trigger resolution.
"Chinese actors" can include state or non-state actors within China. To be acting within the Chinese mainland is to be considered within the state's internationally recognized land or naval borders.
At least one of the following conditions must be met regarding the severity of the attack:
The attack is estimated to have caused at least $1 million direct property damage (excluding intellectual property).
The attack is estimated to have caused at least $10 million of direct or indirect costs to the economy.
The attack causes loss of an essential service (such as electricity, water, gas pumps) affecting at least 10,000 people for at least 1 week.
The attack causes a sharp rise in price of essential goods (such as food or gasoline) by at least 50% for a community of at least 10,000 people.
The attack is estimated to have caused at least 10 fatalities.
This question will resolve based on public information available by March 31, 2023. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10267/nato-article-5-invocation-before-2023/"] | binary | [["2022-03-08", 0.16], ["2022-03-09", 0.111], ["2022-03-10", 0.095], ["2022-03-11", 0.105], ["2022-03-13", 0.105], ["2022-03-14", 0.098], ["2022-03-15", 0.096], ["2022-03-17", 0.103], ["2022-03-17", 0.106], ["2022-03-19", 0.099], ["2022-03-21", 0.099], ["2022-03-22", 0.113], ["2022-03-24", 0.113], ["2022-03-24", 0.112], ["2022-03-26", 0.112], ["2022-03-27", 0.113], ["2022-04-06", 0.112], ["2022-04-08", 0.112], ["2022-04-12", 0.109], ["2022-04-13", 0.105], ["2022-04-15", 0.105], ["2022-04-15", 0.104], ["2022-04-18", 0.103], ["2022-04-20", 0.101], ["2022-04-21", 0.096], ["2022-04-25", 0.096], ["2022-04-26", 0.096], ["2022-04-29", 0.096], ["2022-05-03", 0.095], ["2022-05-04", 0.097], ["2022-05-06", 0.095], ["2022-05-11", 0.095], ["2022-05-11", 0.095], ["2022-05-13", 0.094], ["2022-05-13", 0.092], ["2022-05-16", 0.092], ["2022-05-18", 0.092], ["2022-05-20", 0.092], ["2022-06-01", 0.091], ["2022-06-02", 0.091], ["2022-06-03", 0.087], ["2022-06-05", 0.086], ["2022-06-06", 0.086], ["2022-06-08", 0.086], ["2022-06-09", 0.086], ["2022-06-11", 0.086], ["2022-06-12", 0.086], ["2022-06-14", 0.091], ["2022-06-16", 0.091], ["2022-06-20", 0.09], ["2022-06-21", 0.089], ["2022-06-25", 0.09], ["2022-06-25", 0.089], ["2022-06-28", 0.088], ["2022-07-01", 0.088], ["2022-07-01", 0.089], ["2022-07-03", 0.088], ["2022-07-05", 0.089], ["2022-07-09", 0.089], ["2022-07-12", 0.089], ["2022-07-15", 0.088], ["2022-07-16", 0.088], ["2022-07-17", 0.088], ["2022-07-19", 0.087], ["2022-07-20", 0.086], ["2022-07-23", 0.085], ["2022-07-26", 0.084], ["2022-07-27", 0.084], ["2022-07-30", 0.084], ["2022-07-30", 0.084], ["2022-08-01", 0.083], ["2022-08-02", 0.083], ["2022-08-05", 0.083], ["2022-08-07", 0.083], ["2022-09-14", 0.082], ["2022-10-08", 0.081], ["2022-10-09", 0.08], ["2022-10-11", 0.08], ["2022-10-12", 0.08], ["2022-10-15", 0.08], ["2022-10-16", 0.079], ["2022-10-23", 0.079], ["2022-10-23", 0.08], ["2022-10-28", 0.079], ["2022-10-30", 0.079], ["2022-10-31", 0.079], ["2022-11-05", 0.079], ["2022-11-11", 0.078], ["2022-11-12", 0.078], ["2022-11-20", 0.078], ["2022-11-25", 0.077], ["2022-11-30", 0.076], ["2022-12-02", 0.076], ["2022-12-06", 0.075], ["2022-12-06", 0.074], ["2022-12-14", 0.074], ["2022-12-22", 0.074], ["2022-12-24", 0.073], ["2022-12-29", 0.073], ["2022-12-31", 0.06], ["2022-12-31", 0.059]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10110/ | The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has claimed that a cyberattack of sufficient magnitude could trigger NATO's collective defense pact -- Article V. Thus far, Article V has not been invoked for a cyber-related reason, and it is not clear what the threshold for invoking it would be. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, NATO Officially invokes Article 5 in response to a cyber action. Decisions by the Alliance are made unanimously. An individual NATO member may request Article 5 but that will not constitute the resolution of this question.
The cited action or action(s) must have a major cyber element. Additional or supplemental non-cyber effects do not invalidate the cyber element.
Resolution does not depend on NATO manifesting a response -- whether physical, diplomatic, or otherwise | true | 2022-12-31 | Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.bbc.com/sport/africa/63853981", "https://cloudsek.com/whitepapers-reports/fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022-cyber-threat-landscape", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/30/great-win-us-soccer-team-now-hackers/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.81], ["2022-03-16", 0.753], ["2022-03-17", 0.62], ["2022-03-17", 0.49], ["2022-03-18", 0.354], ["2022-03-18", 0.299], ["2022-03-19", 0.289], ["2022-03-21", 0.29], ["2022-03-21", 0.29], ["2022-03-22", 0.304], ["2022-03-23", 0.304], ["2022-03-24", 0.291], ["2022-03-25", 0.288], ["2022-03-26", 0.289], ["2022-03-27", 0.299], ["2022-03-27", 0.297], ["2022-03-28", 0.301], ["2022-03-29", 0.301], ["2022-03-31", 0.295], ["2022-03-31", 0.291], ["2022-04-04", 0.316], ["2022-04-05", 0.316], ["2022-04-07", 0.311], ["2022-04-08", 0.311], ["2022-04-09", 0.309], ["2022-04-10", 0.299], ["2022-04-11", 0.298], ["2022-04-11", 0.296], ["2022-04-15", 0.293], ["2022-04-18", 0.289], ["2022-04-19", 0.283], ["2022-04-20", 0.283], ["2022-04-25", 0.279], ["2022-05-04", 0.28], ["2022-05-04", 0.282], ["2022-05-06", 0.282], ["2022-05-11", 0.281], ["2022-05-11", 0.271], ["2022-05-12", 0.273], ["2022-05-12", 0.276], ["2022-05-14", 0.278], ["2022-05-18", 0.278], ["2022-05-21", 0.27], ["2022-05-21", 0.268], ["2022-05-30", 0.273], ["2022-06-01", 0.266], ["2022-06-03", 0.263], ["2022-06-03", 0.258], ["2022-06-05", 0.256], ["2022-06-11", 0.256], ["2022-06-12", 0.269], ["2022-06-12", 0.27], ["2022-06-14", 0.27], ["2022-06-16", 0.262], ["2022-06-20", 0.263], ["2022-06-21", 0.265], ["2022-06-25", 0.265], ["2022-06-28", 0.261], ["2022-07-03", 0.261], ["2022-07-05", 0.259], ["2022-07-12", 0.259], ["2022-07-15", 0.259], ["2022-07-17", 0.259], ["2022-07-19", 0.257], ["2022-07-20", 0.257], ["2022-07-22", 0.254], ["2022-07-24", 0.254], ["2022-07-27", 0.252], ["2022-07-31", 0.248], ["2022-08-05", 0.248], ["2022-08-24", 0.252], ["2022-08-25", 0.25], ["2022-09-06", 0.25], ["2022-09-13", 0.252], ["2022-09-17", 0.252], ["2022-09-26", 0.251], ["2022-09-26", 0.252], ["2022-09-28", 0.252], ["2022-09-29", 0.256], ["2022-10-03", 0.256], ["2022-10-04", 0.264], ["2022-10-12", 0.266], ["2022-10-16", 0.27], ["2022-10-17", 0.271], ["2022-10-20", 0.271], ["2022-10-30", 0.271], ["2022-10-31", 0.264], ["2022-11-01", 0.264], ["2022-11-10", 0.264], ["2022-11-11", 0.266], ["2022-11-11", 0.266], ["2022-11-13", 0.265], ["2022-11-14", 0.266], ["2022-11-14", 0.267], ["2022-11-15", 0.274], ["2022-11-15", 0.272], ["2022-11-16", 0.27], ["2022-11-18", 0.269], ["2022-11-19", 0.274], ["2022-11-19", 0.283], ["2022-11-20", 0.273]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10111/ | Ellie Burns at TechMonitor reports that major global sporting events such as the Olympics and World Cup have frequently been targets of major cyberattacks. FIFA officials reported that they were hacked in 2018 and 2016. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if all of the following conditions are met:
There is a successful cyberattack on FIFA's systems or physical infrastructure supporting the 2022 World Cup.
The incident must occur between November 21, 2022 to December 18, 2022.
The targeted system must be unavailable or unusable for at least one hour.
The incident must be reported in at least two major U.S. media outlets and may be publicly reported by March 1, 2023.
The intention behind the attack must be to prevent the ability of systems to function as necessary. For that purpose, resolution will not be triggered by cyber espionage or by data breaches | true | 2022-11-20 | Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-01 | 2022-03-04 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-16", 0.54], ["2022-03-17", 0.54], ["2022-03-17", 0.432], ["2022-03-17", 0.412], ["2022-03-17", 0.412], ["2022-03-17", 0.347], ["2022-03-17", 0.398], ["2022-03-17", 0.408], ["2022-03-17", 0.408], ["2022-03-18", 0.356], ["2022-03-18", 0.356], ["2022-03-19", 0.342], ["2022-03-19", 0.341], ["2022-03-20", 0.331], ["2022-03-21", 0.328], ["2022-03-21", 0.359], ["2022-03-22", 0.35], ["2022-03-22", 0.354], ["2022-03-22", 0.354], ["2022-03-23", 0.346], ["2022-03-25", 0.323], ["2022-03-25", 0.323], ["2022-03-25", 0.321], ["2022-03-25", 0.32], ["2022-03-26", 0.301], ["2022-03-26", 0.294], ["2022-03-26", 0.293], ["2022-03-26", 0.292], ["2022-03-26", 0.289], ["2022-03-26", 0.301], ["2022-03-27", 0.301], ["2022-03-27", 0.301], ["2022-03-27", 0.299], ["2022-03-27", 0.289], ["2022-03-28", 0.288], ["2022-03-29", 0.288], ["2022-03-30", 0.308], ["2022-04-03", 0.302], ["2022-04-03", 0.302], ["2022-04-03", 0.297], ["2022-04-04", 0.297], ["2022-04-05", 0.294], ["2022-04-09", 0.294], ["2022-04-09", 0.287], ["2022-04-10", 0.263], ["2022-04-10", 0.257], ["2022-04-10", 0.257], ["2022-04-10", 0.248], ["2022-04-10", 0.247], ["2022-04-10", 0.239], ["2022-04-11", 0.238], ["2022-04-11", 0.237], ["2022-04-12", 0.237], ["2022-04-13", 0.234], ["2022-04-14", 0.229], ["2022-04-15", 0.224], ["2022-04-15", 0.224], ["2022-04-15", 0.227], ["2022-04-15", 0.227], ["2022-04-15", 0.232], ["2022-04-15", 0.227], ["2022-04-15", 0.229], ["2022-04-15", 0.227], ["2022-04-16", 0.218], ["2022-04-17", 0.218], ["2022-04-18", 0.215], ["2022-04-19", 0.207], ["2022-04-20", 0.205], ["2022-04-20", 0.205], ["2022-04-20", 0.208], ["2022-04-22", 0.206], ["2022-04-22", 0.209], ["2022-04-23", 0.209], ["2022-04-23", 0.206], ["2022-04-24", 0.21], ["2022-04-24", 0.21], ["2022-04-25", 0.209], ["2022-04-25", 0.209], ["2022-04-25", 0.209], ["2022-04-26", 0.204], ["2022-04-26", 0.204], ["2022-04-27", 0.207], ["2022-04-28", 0.202], ["2022-04-28", 0.202], ["2022-04-28", 0.2], ["2022-04-28", 0.193], ["2022-04-28", 0.193], ["2022-04-29", 0.193], ["2022-04-29", 0.193], ["2022-04-29", 0.184], ["2022-04-29", 0.185], ["2022-04-29", 0.184], ["2022-04-29", 0.183], ["2022-04-29", 0.169], ["2022-04-29", 0.168], ["2022-04-29", 0.164], ["2022-04-29", 0.16], ["2022-04-29", 0.157], ["2022-04-29", 0.156], ["2022-04-30", 0.155], ["2022-04-30", 0.155]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10116/ | President Biden issued a warning on February 24 that
"If Russia pursues cyberattacks against our companies, our critical infrastructure, we are prepared to respond."
With a recent history or current cyberattacks occurring in Ukraine, and an earlier history of Russian-initiated cyberattacks against US critical infrastructure like in the case of Colonial Pipeline in 2021, it is possible that another attack will happen, prompting the US to respond in kind. | Security & Defense | This question resolves positively if it is publicly reported by at least four reputable news sources, or the US government itself, that the the US launched a cyberattack against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies between January 1 and April 30 of 2022.
More information on known Russian cyber operators and units can be found here
This question will resolved based on publicly available information on July 1, 2022 regarding the Jan 1 to Apr 30 time period. Any information released after July 1, 2022 will not count toward resolving this question.
In the case of sufficient ambiguity on the identity of the attackers or recipients of the attacks, additional sources and experts may be referenced. If no consensus is reached, then this question will resolve ambiguously | true | 2022-04-30 | Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-22 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.techradar.com/news/lazarus-hackers-are-using-log4j-to-hack-us-energy-companies", "https://therecord.media/u-s-state-legislature-middle-eastern-govt-targeted-by-espionage-group-through-log4j/)"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.4], ["2022-03-15", 0.35], ["2022-03-17", 0.388], ["2022-03-17", 0.338], ["2022-03-17", 0.407], ["2022-03-17", 0.42], ["2022-03-17", 0.425], ["2022-03-18", 0.401], ["2022-03-18", 0.391], ["2022-03-19", 0.391], ["2022-03-19", 0.412], ["2022-03-21", 0.399], ["2022-03-22", 0.394], ["2022-03-22", 0.392], ["2022-03-22", 0.388], ["2022-03-24", 0.364], ["2022-03-24", 0.363], ["2022-03-24", 0.363], ["2022-03-25", 0.362], ["2022-03-25", 0.351], ["2022-03-25", 0.327], ["2022-03-26", 0.339], ["2022-03-26", 0.321], ["2022-03-27", 0.322], ["2022-03-28", 0.308], ["2022-03-28", 0.307], ["2022-03-29", 0.306], ["2022-04-09", 0.294], ["2022-04-09", 0.289], ["2022-04-10", 0.289], ["2022-04-10", 0.282], ["2022-04-12", 0.28], ["2022-04-13", 0.279], ["2022-04-14", 0.278], ["2022-04-15", 0.278], ["2022-04-16", 0.283], ["2022-04-16", 0.283], ["2022-04-18", 0.274], ["2022-04-26", 0.267], ["2022-04-26", 0.266], ["2022-04-27", 0.266], ["2022-04-28", 0.265], ["2022-04-28", 0.259], ["2022-04-28", 0.263], ["2022-05-01", 0.262], ["2022-05-03", 0.266], ["2022-05-04", 0.268], ["2022-05-05", 0.268], ["2022-05-05", 0.268], ["2022-05-06", 0.265], ["2022-05-06", 0.265], ["2022-05-07", 0.266], ["2022-05-11", 0.269], ["2022-05-11", 0.29], ["2022-05-11", 0.289], ["2022-05-16", 0.289], ["2022-05-16", 0.284], ["2022-05-18", 0.284], ["2022-05-22", 0.278], ["2022-05-22", 0.28], ["2022-05-26", 0.28], ["2022-05-27", 0.279], ["2022-05-27", 0.274], ["2022-05-28", 0.274], ["2022-05-28", 0.268], ["2022-05-29", 0.268], ["2022-05-29", 0.27], ["2022-05-30", 0.27], ["2022-06-01", 0.268], ["2022-06-01", 0.268], ["2022-06-01", 0.266], ["2022-06-01", 0.254], ["2022-06-02", 0.253], ["2022-06-02", 0.253], ["2022-06-02", 0.251], ["2022-06-06", 0.249], ["2022-06-06", 0.247], ["2022-06-07", 0.244], ["2022-06-07", 0.239], ["2022-06-07", 0.238], ["2022-06-08", 0.241], ["2022-06-10", 0.241], ["2022-06-11", 0.243], ["2022-06-12", 0.254], ["2022-06-12", 0.255], ["2022-06-12", 0.256], ["2022-06-12", 0.253], ["2022-06-14", 0.253], ["2022-06-14", 0.252], ["2022-06-15", 0.256], ["2022-06-16", 0.253], ["2022-06-17", 0.252], ["2022-06-21", 0.252], ["2022-06-22", 0.252], ["2022-06-23", 0.254], ["2022-06-23", 0.254], ["2022-06-23", 0.255], ["2022-06-23", 0.255], ["2022-06-24", 0.255], ["2022-06-24", 0.25], ["2022-06-24", 0.247]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10117/ | In late 2021, a serious vulnerability in a widely used piece of software -- Log4j -- was identified. A patch was created, and the vulnerability was disclosed to the public with instructions to update their systems. Unfortunately, in doing so, opportunistic hackers realized that many people would delay in deploying the patches. While some entities have updated their software, it is believed that many are still running the version of Log4j with the serious vulnerability, leaving them broadly open to compromise. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between March 8, 2022 to September 1, 2022, a new cyberattack using the Log4Shell exploit causes at least $20 million in damages. This question will resolve based on publicly available information on September 1, 2022.
We will count an attack as "new" if a) the attack has not yet been publicly reported as of March 9, 2022 and b) the attack is not a continuation of a previous attack. We will consider an attack continuous if a) it is perpetrated against a company or entity that experienced an attack less than 48 hours prior by the same group or individual and b) the attack is of the same type as the original.
Both direct and indirect costs to the company or entity experiencing the attack will count toward the total amount of damages. Costs to external customers of the targeted company or entity will also count | true | 2022-06-24 | Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://tech.co/news/data-breaches-2022-so-far", "https://www.immuniweb.com/blog/5-biggest-supply-chain-attacks-in-2022-so-far.html", "https://konbriefing.com/en-topics/cyber-attacks.html", "https://konbriefing.com/en-topics/cyber-attacks-2022.html", "https://www.comparitech.com/software-supply-chain-attacks/", "https://github.com/IQTLabs/software-supply-chain-compromises/blob/master/software_supply_chain_attacks.csv", "https://securityboulevard.com/2023/01/10-software-supply-chain-attacks-you-can-learn-from/", "https://blog.cloudflare.com/cloudflare-investigation-of-the-january-2022-okta-compromise/", "https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/23/okta-breach-sykes-sitel/?guccounter=1", "https://www.okta.com/blog/2022/03/oktas-investigation-of-the-january-2022-compromise/", "https://sansec.io/research/rekoobe-fishpig-magento", "https://jetpack.com/blog/backdoor-found-in-themes-and-plugins-from-accesspress-themes/", "https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/new-supply-chain-attack-leverages-comm100-chat-installer/", "https://sansec.io/research/naturalfreshmall-mass-hack)", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magento", "https://discovery.hgdata.com/product/adobe-commerce-cloud", "https://helpx.adobe.com/security/products/magento/apsb22-12.html", "https://sansec.io/research/trojanorder-magento?feed_id=282&_unique_id=63754c1176a00", "https://www.hackread.com/trojanorders-attack-magento-adobe-stores/", "https://www.naturalnetworks.com/hundreds-of-u-s-news-outlets-affected-by-malware/"] | binary | [["2022-03-23", 0.2], ["2022-03-23", 0.2], ["2022-03-24", 0.308], ["2022-03-24", 0.31], ["2022-03-24", 0.38], ["2022-03-24", 0.38], ["2022-03-25", 0.462], ["2022-03-25", 0.505], ["2022-03-25", 0.508], ["2022-03-25", 0.539], ["2022-03-26", 0.511], ["2022-03-26", 0.511], ["2022-03-26", 0.559], ["2022-03-26", 0.535], ["2022-03-26", 0.576], ["2022-03-27", 0.545], ["2022-03-28", 0.505], ["2022-03-28", 0.512], ["2022-03-28", 0.512], ["2022-03-30", 0.493], ["2022-03-31", 0.492], ["2022-03-31", 0.527], ["2022-04-13", 0.527], ["2022-04-14", 0.54], ["2022-04-18", 0.55], ["2022-04-19", 0.55], ["2022-04-20", 0.549], ["2022-04-21", 0.563], ["2022-05-02", 0.562], ["2022-05-02", 0.561], ["2022-05-03", 0.561], ["2022-05-03", 0.558], ["2022-05-04", 0.542], ["2022-05-04", 0.532], ["2022-05-05", 0.529], ["2022-05-06", 0.529], ["2022-05-11", 0.524], ["2022-05-27", 0.501], ["2022-05-30", 0.505], ["2022-06-04", 0.504], ["2022-06-04", 0.5], ["2022-06-07", 0.496], ["2022-06-07", 0.495], ["2022-06-11", 0.494], ["2022-06-11", 0.493], ["2022-06-11", 0.493], ["2022-06-12", 0.492], ["2022-06-12", 0.492], ["2022-06-14", 0.489], ["2022-06-14", 0.489], ["2022-06-15", 0.489], ["2022-06-16", 0.486], ["2022-06-16", 0.485], ["2022-06-17", 0.485], ["2022-06-21", 0.485], ["2022-06-28", 0.485], ["2022-07-05", 0.485], ["2022-07-12", 0.485], ["2022-07-16", 0.485], ["2022-07-17", 0.482], ["2022-07-19", 0.481], ["2022-07-20", 0.481], ["2022-07-26", 0.481], ["2022-07-27", 0.477], ["2022-07-29", 0.476], ["2022-08-05", 0.476], ["2022-08-14", 0.476], ["2022-08-18", 0.475], ["2022-09-06", 0.479], ["2022-09-18", 0.479], ["2022-09-19", 0.477], ["2022-09-20", 0.476], ["2022-09-20", 0.472], ["2022-10-05", 0.472], ["2022-10-05", 0.473], ["2022-10-12", 0.472], ["2022-10-16", 0.471], ["2022-10-16", 0.471], ["2022-10-16", 0.463], ["2022-10-17", 0.463], ["2022-10-31", 0.46], ["2022-10-31", 0.46], ["2022-11-25", 0.458], ["2022-11-26", 0.458], ["2022-12-02", 0.456], ["2022-12-03", 0.455], ["2022-12-03", 0.455], ["2022-12-06", 0.454], ["2022-12-06", 0.454], ["2022-12-14", 0.454], ["2022-12-16", 0.451], ["2022-12-16", 0.451], ["2022-12-22", 0.446], ["2022-12-22", 0.444], ["2022-12-22", 0.445], ["2022-12-23", 0.442], ["2022-12-24", 0.44], ["2022-12-28", 0.44], ["2022-12-30", 0.434], ["2022-12-30", 0.42], ["2022-12-31", 0.409]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10119/ | In December 2020, FireEye reported that its red-team tools had been stolen -- the start of a chain of discoveries that ultimately found that a commonly used software platform owned by SolarWinds had been compromised by Russian actors in a wide-ranging supply chain attack. Supply chain attacks can be highly impactful because they target a single product or process that is widely used downstream. | Security & Defense | To resolve “yes,” the penetrated supplier must have over one thousand customers and the discovery must be by a customer or a third party, not the supplier.
For the purpose of this question, only the proprietary software of publicly traded entities will count toward resolution. Open source software with over 1000 users will not count toward resolution.
Resolution is based on public reporting before Jan 1, 2023 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/28/cyberattacks-u-s-hospitals-00075638", "https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/ransomware-attacks-hospitals-take-toll-patients-rcna54090", "https://www.kitsapsun.com/story/news/2022/10/04/hospital-st-michael-medical-center-washington-experiencing-online-outage-it-security-incident/8179089001/", "https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/ransomware-attack-forces-french-hospital-to-transfer-patients/", "https://www.engadget.com/lock-bit-ransomware-gang-apologizes-sick-kids-attack-224245439.html", "https://www.wwno.org/npr-news/npr-news/2022-12-17/cyberattacks-on-hospitals-thwart-indias-push-to-digitize-health-care", "https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/cybersecurity/289-healthcare-organizations-were-impacted-by-ransomware-attacks-in-2022.html#:~:text=Ransomware%20attacks%20on%20hospitals%20and,the%20data%20of%20623%2C000%20patients."] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.99], ["2022-03-15", 0.99], ["2022-03-17", 0.843], ["2022-03-17", 0.843], ["2022-03-17", 0.666], ["2022-03-17", 0.768], ["2022-03-18", 0.618], ["2022-03-18", 0.601], ["2022-03-19", 0.581], ["2022-03-21", 0.541], ["2022-03-22", 0.536], ["2022-03-22", 0.5], ["2022-03-22", 0.486], ["2022-03-23", 0.475], ["2022-03-24", 0.454], ["2022-03-25", 0.459], ["2022-03-25", 0.42], ["2022-03-26", 0.42], ["2022-03-26", 0.402], ["2022-03-27", 0.41], ["2022-03-28", 0.368], ["2022-03-29", 0.365], ["2022-03-29", 0.365], ["2022-04-01", 0.375], ["2022-04-03", 0.375], ["2022-04-04", 0.385], ["2022-04-06", 0.382], ["2022-04-13", 0.382], ["2022-04-14", 0.37], ["2022-04-18", 0.37], ["2022-04-26", 0.369], ["2022-05-03", 0.372], ["2022-05-04", 0.36], ["2022-05-06", 0.357], ["2022-05-11", 0.357], ["2022-05-11", 0.347], ["2022-05-11", 0.349], ["2022-05-12", 0.35], ["2022-05-30", 0.35], ["2022-06-01", 0.354], ["2022-06-01", 0.354], ["2022-06-02", 0.361], ["2022-06-03", 0.357], ["2022-06-07", 0.354], ["2022-06-11", 0.354], ["2022-06-12", 0.354], ["2022-06-12", 0.363], ["2022-06-13", 0.364], ["2022-06-13", 0.367], ["2022-06-14", 0.37], ["2022-06-15", 0.37], ["2022-06-15", 0.371], ["2022-06-16", 0.369], ["2022-06-21", 0.369], ["2022-06-23", 0.369], ["2022-06-28", 0.371], ["2022-07-05", 0.371], ["2022-07-09", 0.37], ["2022-07-12", 0.37], ["2022-07-20", 0.37], ["2022-07-27", 0.37], ["2022-08-05", 0.37], ["2022-08-07", 0.375], ["2022-09-13", 0.374], ["2022-10-08", 0.373], ["2022-10-08", 0.372], ["2022-10-09", 0.372], ["2022-10-10", 0.365], ["2022-10-10", 0.36], ["2022-10-11", 0.36], ["2022-10-16", 0.359], ["2022-10-16", 0.359], ["2022-11-06", 0.356], ["2022-11-08", 0.356], ["2022-11-13", 0.351], ["2022-11-14", 0.351], ["2022-11-15", 0.349], ["2022-11-24", 0.349], ["2022-11-24", 0.35], ["2022-11-25", 0.348], ["2022-11-25", 0.348], ["2022-11-25", 0.345], ["2022-11-27", 0.345], ["2022-11-28", 0.349], ["2022-11-30", 0.349], ["2022-11-30", 0.349], ["2022-12-14", 0.349], ["2022-12-15", 0.349], ["2022-12-20", 0.348], ["2022-12-20", 0.348], ["2022-12-21", 0.348], ["2022-12-21", 0.342], ["2022-12-22", 0.342], ["2022-12-22", 0.334], ["2022-12-22", 0.333], ["2022-12-26", 0.328], ["2022-12-28", 0.328], ["2022-12-30", 0.323], ["2022-12-31", 0.297], ["2022-12-31", 0.271], ["2022-12-31", 0.271]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10120/ | In recent years, there have been several deaths publicly attributed to cyberattacks --owing, for example, to the closure of hospitals that resulted in delayed access to treatment or a failure of monitoring systems that prevented life-saving interventions. In September, 2021 a baby lost its life due to a cyberattack on a hospital in Alabama. A lawsuit by the child's family claims that the cyberattack led medical staff to miss vital signs in the baby's declining health which could have been caught and alleviated without damage to the hospital's internal systems and computers. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if one or more people die from the direct, first-order causes of a cyberattack reported between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023. "first-order causes of death" include but are not limited to failure of power supply, therapeutic devices, moving vehicles, or automated ingredient mixing.
Second-order deaths include delayed or rerouted ambulances, slower hospital response times, or machine failures that are not directly preserving life (for example, a failed ventilator will be considered first order whereas a failed heartbeat monitoring device will be considered second order.)
If an event fitting these resolution criteria is reported in 2022 for an earlier time frame outside of the range of this question, it will still count toward a positive resolution.
Resolution will come from the individual reports of at least five reputable and popular news sources, or from official statements by the institution(s) affected (if applicable).
This question will consider any first-order loss of life attributable to a cyberattack anywhere in the world or in space.
Final determination of first and second-order attribution is at the discretion of the Metaculus Admins | true | 2022-12-31 | Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://processbolt.com/worst-largest-dangerous-cyber-attacks-2022", "https://www.insiderintelligence.com/content/banks-should-spend-big-on-cyberdefenses-ransomware", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11231/cyberattack-on-us-infrastructure-sectors/?sub-question=9986", "https://netblocks.org/cost/", "https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/covid-19-pandemic-teaches-us-about-cybersecurity-cyberattack-cyber-pandemic-risk-virus/", "https://netblocks.org/cost/"] | binary | [["2022-03-23", 0.47], ["2022-03-24", 0.4], ["2022-03-24", 0.419], ["2022-03-25", 0.448], ["2022-03-25", 0.404], ["2022-03-27", 0.415], ["2022-03-28", 0.292], ["2022-03-29", 0.292], ["2022-03-29", 0.26], ["2022-04-01", 0.296], ["2022-04-01", 0.296], ["2022-04-03", 0.291], ["2022-04-04", 0.292], ["2022-04-06", 0.285], ["2022-04-06", 0.285], ["2022-04-09", 0.278], ["2022-04-09", 0.278], ["2022-04-13", 0.267], ["2022-04-14", 0.267], ["2022-04-18", 0.256], ["2022-04-19", 0.255], ["2022-04-20", 0.246], ["2022-04-21", 0.239], ["2022-04-24", 0.237], ["2022-05-02", 0.243], ["2022-05-03", 0.25], ["2022-05-04", 0.25], ["2022-05-04", 0.249], ["2022-05-06", 0.249], ["2022-05-11", 0.248], ["2022-05-11", 0.239], ["2022-05-14", 0.241], ["2022-05-30", 0.241], ["2022-06-01", 0.233], ["2022-06-02", 0.228], ["2022-06-04", 0.227], ["2022-06-07", 0.223], ["2022-06-11", 0.222], ["2022-06-12", 0.238], ["2022-06-12", 0.238], ["2022-06-14", 0.238], ["2022-06-16", 0.238], ["2022-06-21", 0.236], ["2022-06-28", 0.236], ["2022-07-05", 0.236], ["2022-07-12", 0.236], ["2022-07-15", 0.236], ["2022-07-16", 0.231], ["2022-07-16", 0.216], ["2022-07-17", 0.213], ["2022-07-18", 0.212], ["2022-07-19", 0.215], ["2022-07-20", 0.213], ["2022-07-21", 0.213], ["2022-07-23", 0.233], ["2022-07-24", 0.233], ["2022-07-26", 0.229], ["2022-07-27", 0.229], ["2022-07-28", 0.232], ["2022-08-05", 0.232], ["2022-08-07", 0.232], ["2022-08-08", 0.232], ["2022-08-11", 0.232], ["2022-08-18", 0.232], ["2022-09-06", 0.24], ["2022-09-19", 0.241], ["2022-10-05", 0.241], ["2022-10-12", 0.24], ["2022-10-13", 0.24], ["2022-10-15", 0.239], ["2022-10-15", 0.234], ["2022-10-16", 0.233], ["2022-10-16", 0.232], ["2022-10-30", 0.232], ["2022-10-31", 0.231], ["2022-11-06", 0.229], ["2022-11-07", 0.229], ["2022-11-11", 0.229], ["2022-11-12", 0.225], ["2022-11-13", 0.225], ["2022-11-25", 0.223], ["2022-11-30", 0.223], ["2022-12-02", 0.219], ["2022-12-03", 0.219], ["2022-12-05", 0.219], ["2022-12-06", 0.218], ["2022-12-06", 0.218], ["2022-12-09", 0.215], ["2022-12-09", 0.212], ["2022-12-16", 0.211], ["2022-12-17", 0.21], ["2022-12-17", 0.202], ["2022-12-18", 0.202], ["2022-12-22", 0.201], ["2022-12-22", 0.198], ["2022-12-24", 0.198], ["2022-12-28", 0.199], ["2022-12-29", 0.199], ["2022-12-29", 0.196], ["2022-12-30", 0.195], ["2022-12-31", 0.154]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10122/ | Cyberattacks can come with a high price tag. Perhaps the most expensive cyberattack in history was NotPetya -- rumored to cost some $10 billion in damages all told.
Costs from an attack can include ransomware payments, mitigation costs, legal settlements, and more. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if the most destructive cyberattack occuring between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023 has a total cost greater than $10 billion USD.
If a number of companies are targeted by the same type of attack by the same hacker or group within a 24 hour period, then this will count as a singular attack. If the attacks are not of the same type, are not issued by the same group or individual, or the attacks occur across a larger than 24-hour period, then those attacks will not count as a singular unit. If the attacks are of the same type, come from the same attacker, but are spread out over more than a 24-hour period, then only the attacks occurring within the 24-hour period will count toward resolution.
This question will be based on public reporting as of January 1, 2023. If the nature of a potential attack or cost of the impact is unclear, Metaculus Admins may consult additional information available by March 1, 2023 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://web.archive.org/web/20220902113623/https://identityreview.com/top-30-industry-leaders-in-digital-identity/", "https://tech.co/news/data-breaches-2022-so-far", "https://web.archive.org/web/20220902113623/https://identityreview.com/top-30-industry-leaders-in-digital-identity/"] | binary | [["2022-03-23", 0.05], ["2022-03-23", 0.05], ["2022-03-23", 0.19], ["2022-03-24", 0.332], ["2022-03-24", 0.332], ["2022-03-24", 0.388], ["2022-03-24", 0.44], ["2022-03-24", 0.377], ["2022-03-25", 0.375], ["2022-03-25", 0.379], ["2022-03-25", 0.446], ["2022-03-26", 0.449], ["2022-03-26", 0.505], ["2022-03-26", 0.503], ["2022-03-27", 0.492], ["2022-03-27", 0.494], ["2022-03-31", 0.529], ["2022-04-07", 0.506], ["2022-04-09", 0.506], ["2022-04-09", 0.482], ["2022-04-13", 0.482], ["2022-04-18", 0.481], ["2022-04-21", 0.488], ["2022-04-27", 0.488], ["2022-05-02", 0.486], ["2022-05-03", 0.486], ["2022-05-04", 0.487], ["2022-05-04", 0.497], ["2022-05-11", 0.475], ["2022-05-13", 0.476], ["2022-05-14", 0.475], ["2022-05-14", 0.475], ["2022-05-18", 0.48], ["2022-05-30", 0.474], ["2022-06-07", 0.471], ["2022-06-11", 0.47], ["2022-06-11", 0.47], ["2022-06-11", 0.469], ["2022-06-12", 0.482], ["2022-06-12", 0.482], ["2022-06-14", 0.482], ["2022-06-21", 0.482], ["2022-06-28", 0.482], ["2022-06-29", 0.482], ["2022-07-03", 0.479], ["2022-07-05", 0.479], ["2022-07-12", 0.479], ["2022-07-20", 0.479], ["2022-07-20", 0.48], ["2022-07-22", 0.471], ["2022-07-27", 0.471], ["2022-07-29", 0.471], ["2022-07-29", 0.468], ["2022-08-05", 0.47], ["2022-08-18", 0.47], ["2022-08-23", 0.47], ["2022-08-28", 0.467], ["2022-09-06", 0.48], ["2022-09-18", 0.48], ["2022-10-10", 0.482], ["2022-10-11", 0.482], ["2022-10-11", 0.483], ["2022-10-16", 0.483], ["2022-10-16", 0.47], ["2022-10-17", 0.47], ["2022-10-24", 0.47], ["2022-10-31", 0.47], ["2022-10-31", 0.468], ["2022-11-05", 0.469], ["2022-11-07", 0.469], ["2022-11-28", 0.467], ["2022-12-01", 0.466], ["2022-12-02", 0.466], ["2022-12-02", 0.466], ["2022-12-02", 0.472], ["2022-12-06", 0.472], ["2022-12-06", 0.472], ["2022-12-06", 0.47], ["2022-12-14", 0.463], ["2022-12-15", 0.463], ["2022-12-16", 0.453], ["2022-12-17", 0.453], ["2022-12-17", 0.452], ["2022-12-17", 0.45], ["2022-12-17", 0.45], ["2022-12-17", 0.443], ["2022-12-18", 0.443], ["2022-12-22", 0.437], ["2022-12-22", 0.441], ["2022-12-22", 0.441], ["2022-12-23", 0.438], ["2022-12-24", 0.44], ["2022-12-29", 0.439], ["2022-12-30", 0.439], ["2022-12-30", 0.432], ["2022-12-31", 0.426], ["2022-12-31", 0.416], ["2022-12-31", 0.415], ["2022-12-31", 0.414], ["2022-12-31", 0.408], ["2022-12-31", 0.408]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10124/ | In February 2022, amidst public backlash over privacy and security concerns, the IRS backed off plans to require online users to verify their identity through ID.me.
However, despite these concerns, online identity services are growing in popularity in response to the demand to cut down on fraud and identity theft online. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if, between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, at least one of the companies on this list of 30 Industry Leaders in Digital Identity has a breach of some customer data, as reported by a credible source by January 1, 2023 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-16 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10112/-russian-cyberattacks-on-ukraine/#comment-97334"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.55], ["2022-03-15", 0.503], ["2022-03-17", 0.502], ["2022-03-17", 0.495], ["2022-03-17", 0.497], ["2022-03-17", 0.459], ["2022-03-19", 0.443], ["2022-03-19", 0.443], ["2022-03-20", 0.423], ["2022-03-21", 0.422], ["2022-03-21", 0.409], ["2022-03-22", 0.408], ["2022-03-22", 0.428], ["2022-03-25", 0.428], ["2022-03-25", 0.415], ["2022-03-26", 0.415], ["2022-03-27", 0.401], ["2022-03-27", 0.381], ["2022-03-27", 0.413], ["2022-03-28", 0.407], ["2022-03-29", 0.389], ["2022-03-29", 0.389], ["2022-04-11", 0.371], ["2022-04-13", 0.371], ["2022-04-13", 0.365], ["2022-04-13", 0.364], ["2022-04-15", 0.359], ["2022-04-18", 0.359], ["2022-04-18", 0.345], ["2022-04-20", 0.347], ["2022-04-20", 0.336], ["2022-04-25", 0.336], ["2022-05-01", 0.339], ["2022-05-02", 0.334], ["2022-05-02", 0.334], ["2022-05-03", 0.334], ["2022-05-04", 0.338], ["2022-05-05", 0.321], ["2022-05-11", 0.32], ["2022-05-11", 0.31], ["2022-05-18", 0.31], ["2022-05-18", 0.293], ["2022-05-18", 0.288], ["2022-05-21", 0.287], ["2022-05-22", 0.287], ["2022-05-25", 0.288], ["2022-05-25", 0.287], ["2022-05-26", 0.28], ["2022-05-28", 0.28], ["2022-05-29", 0.273], ["2022-05-29", 0.272], ["2022-05-30", 0.272], ["2022-05-30", 0.262], ["2022-05-31", 0.256], ["2022-06-01", 0.253], ["2022-06-01", 0.253], ["2022-06-02", 0.243], ["2022-06-02", 0.241], ["2022-06-02", 0.242], ["2022-06-03", 0.211], ["2022-06-03", 0.207], ["2022-06-03", 0.205], ["2022-06-04", 0.205], ["2022-06-04", 0.205], ["2022-06-05", 0.2], ["2022-06-06", 0.197], ["2022-06-07", 0.19], ["2022-06-08", 0.19], ["2022-06-08", 0.188], ["2022-06-08", 0.181], ["2022-06-09", 0.181], ["2022-06-09", 0.179], ["2022-06-11", 0.177], ["2022-06-11", 0.177], ["2022-06-12", 0.188], ["2022-06-12", 0.185], ["2022-06-13", 0.184], ["2022-06-14", 0.181], ["2022-06-16", 0.181], ["2022-06-17", 0.178], ["2022-06-17", 0.177], ["2022-06-20", 0.177], ["2022-06-21", 0.175], ["2022-06-21", 0.175], ["2022-06-21", 0.175], ["2022-06-21", 0.174], ["2022-06-22", 0.174], ["2022-06-23", 0.173], ["2022-06-23", 0.17], ["2022-06-24", 0.168], ["2022-06-25", 0.168], ["2022-06-26", 0.168], ["2022-06-26", 0.166], ["2022-06-27", 0.166], ["2022-06-27", 0.163], ["2022-06-28", 0.163], ["2022-06-28", 0.163], ["2022-06-29", 0.161], ["2022-06-29", 0.137], ["2022-06-30", 0.129], ["2022-06-30", 0.129]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10126/ | A zero-day exploit is one that takes advantage of a previously-unknown vulnerability in software or hardware that hackers are able to take advantage of. So far, 2021 has had the largest number of zero-day attacks of any year to date, with costs often greater than $1M USD each. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if a new zero day exploit is both used and disclosed against one or more U.S.-based systems and results in the compromise of at least 100 million Americans' personal information between March 8, 2022 and July 1, 2022.
As defined by cybersecurity company, Fireeye:
"A zero-day attack happens once that flaw, or software/hardware vulnerability, is exploited and attackers release malware before a developer has an opportunity to create a patch to fix the vulnerability—hence “zero-day.”
The attack must be new, as in not previously known to the public through any type of publication, report, or announcement. To qualify for resolution, the attack must also be disclosed and reported by July 1, 2022. An attack occurring before July 1 reported in August or September 2022 would not trigger a positive resolution.
A U.S.-based system is defined for the purpose of this question as a system operated by a U.S. company based within the internationally accepted borders of the United States.
For the purpose of this question, we will define personal information compromise as such:
"Personal Data Compromise means the loss, theft, accidental release or accidental publication of “personally identifying information” or “personally sensitive information” as respects one or more “affected individuals”. If the loss, theft, accidental release or accidental publication involves “personally identifying information”, such loss, theft, accidental release or accidental publication must result in or have the reasonable possibility of resulting in the fraudulent use of such information.
The Americans affected may reside abroad or in the United States, but must hold either American citizenship or consider themselves primarily residing within the U.S.
Resolution will be sourced from the targeted company(s) announcements, government reports, reputable reports from cybersecurity analysis and protection firms, or at least three reputable news sources.
If only some of these conditions are fulfilled, or it is impossible to find information to properly determine whether these conditions can be fulfilled, then this question will resolve ambiguously | true | 2022-06-30 | Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-31 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.imperva.com/blog/gbps-pps-rps-ddos-attacks/", "https://www.imperva.com/blog/throughput-forwarding-rate-ddos-attacks/", "https://www.thesslstore.com/blog/largest-ddos-attack-in-history/", "https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/azure-ddos-protection-2021-q3-and-q4-ddos-attack-trends/", "https://blog.cloudflare.com/26m-rps-ddos/", "https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/identity-security/how-google-cloud-blocked-largest-layer-7-ddos-attack-at-46-million-rps", "https://news.lumen.com/2022-08-09-Lumen-stops-1-06-Tbps-DDoS-attack-in-the-companys-largest-mitigation-to-date", "https://blog.cloudflare.com/cloudflare-ddos-threat-report-2022-q3/"] | binary | [["2022-03-08", 0.315], ["2022-03-10", 0.62], ["2022-03-10", 0.647], ["2022-03-11", 0.613], ["2022-03-12", 0.619], ["2022-03-13", 0.639], ["2022-03-14", 0.633], ["2022-03-15", 0.633], ["2022-03-16", 0.616], ["2022-03-17", 0.625], ["2022-03-18", 0.627], ["2022-03-19", 0.63], ["2022-03-19", 0.63], ["2022-03-21", 0.624], ["2022-03-22", 0.621], ["2022-03-23", 0.619], ["2022-03-24", 0.618], ["2022-03-25", 0.61], ["2022-04-01", 0.61], ["2022-04-02", 0.605], ["2022-04-06", 0.605], ["2022-04-08", 0.608], ["2022-04-08", 0.606], ["2022-04-10", 0.606], ["2022-04-18", 0.61], ["2022-04-20", 0.61], ["2022-05-03", 0.609], ["2022-05-04", 0.609], ["2022-05-06", 0.61], ["2022-05-06", 0.61], ["2022-05-10", 0.61], ["2022-05-11", 0.616], ["2022-05-14", 0.616], ["2022-05-17", 0.616], ["2022-05-19", 0.617], ["2022-05-30", 0.616], ["2022-06-03", 0.616], ["2022-06-03", 0.616], ["2022-06-07", 0.617], ["2022-06-11", 0.617], ["2022-06-12", 0.61], ["2022-06-14", 0.61], ["2022-06-21", 0.61], ["2022-06-25", 0.608], ["2022-06-26", 0.608], ["2022-06-28", 0.608], ["2022-07-03", 0.605], ["2022-07-04", 0.605], ["2022-07-05", 0.605], ["2022-07-06", 0.605], ["2022-07-08", 0.603], ["2022-07-12", 0.603], ["2022-07-15", 0.603], ["2022-07-16", 0.601], ["2022-07-20", 0.601], ["2022-07-20", 0.601], ["2022-07-22", 0.603], ["2022-07-27", 0.603], ["2022-07-30", 0.603], ["2022-07-30", 0.606], ["2022-08-05", 0.608], ["2022-08-14", 0.608], ["2022-08-25", 0.607], ["2022-09-06", 0.603], ["2022-09-06", 0.602], ["2022-09-18", 0.601], ["2022-09-24", 0.6], ["2022-10-12", 0.599], ["2022-10-12", 0.595], ["2022-10-16", 0.595], ["2022-10-30", 0.594], ["2022-11-01", 0.585], ["2022-11-08", 0.585], ["2022-11-10", 0.583], ["2022-11-22", 0.578], ["2022-11-23", 0.578], ["2022-11-24", 0.573], ["2022-11-30", 0.569], ["2022-11-30", 0.569], ["2022-12-02", 0.569], ["2022-12-02", 0.568], ["2022-12-06", 0.568], ["2022-12-06", 0.568], ["2022-12-07", 0.565], ["2022-12-08", 0.558], ["2022-12-09", 0.556], ["2022-12-16", 0.556], ["2022-12-17", 0.552], ["2022-12-18", 0.533], ["2022-12-19", 0.53], ["2022-12-20", 0.521], ["2022-12-20", 0.515], ["2022-12-21", 0.51], ["2022-12-22", 0.498], ["2022-12-23", 0.485], ["2022-12-24", 0.484], ["2022-12-26", 0.484], ["2022-12-28", 0.481], ["2022-12-30", 0.481], ["2022-12-31", 0.43], ["2022-12-31", 0.426]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10127/ | Distributed denial-of-service attacks occur when a targeted server is deliberately overwhelmed by requests. The largest attack occurred late in 2021 at a total of 3.47 Tbps, and was reported in late January 2022. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if a DDoS attack greater than 3.5TPS occurs between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, according to credible public reports available by January 31, 2023.
We will utilize this definition of a DDoS attack for resolution:
"A distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack is a malicious attempt to disrupt the normal traffic of a targeted server, service or network by overwhelming the target or its surrounding infrastructure with a flood of Internet traffic."
The DDoS attack will be measured in terabytes per second (Tbps, TPS).
Resolution will come from an announcement from the affected company(s) or from at least 2 reputable news/media sources | true | 2022-12-31 | Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-15 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chip-delivery-times-fall-day-145051584.html"] | binary | [["2022-03-08", 0.13], ["2022-03-09", 0.18], ["2022-03-09", 0.168], ["2022-03-10", 0.194], ["2022-03-10", 0.197], ["2022-03-11", 0.189], ["2022-03-12", 0.191], ["2022-03-12", 0.191], ["2022-03-12", 0.184], ["2022-03-13", 0.237], ["2022-03-13", 0.223], ["2022-03-14", 0.217], ["2022-03-15", 0.213], ["2022-03-15", 0.2], ["2022-03-15", 0.2], ["2022-03-16", 0.197], ["2022-03-17", 0.197], ["2022-03-17", 0.189], ["2022-03-18", 0.185], ["2022-03-19", 0.185], ["2022-03-19", 0.186], ["2022-03-21", 0.186], ["2022-03-22", 0.184], ["2022-03-22", 0.19], ["2022-03-25", 0.19], ["2022-03-25", 0.19], ["2022-03-26", 0.193], ["2022-03-28", 0.193], ["2022-03-29", 0.193], ["2022-03-29", 0.193], ["2022-03-30", 0.195], ["2022-03-30", 0.191], ["2022-04-03", 0.191], ["2022-04-04", 0.191], ["2022-04-05", 0.191], ["2022-04-06", 0.189], ["2022-04-07", 0.187], ["2022-04-07", 0.187], ["2022-04-08", 0.189], ["2022-04-11", 0.189], ["2022-04-12", 0.189], ["2022-04-15", 0.187], ["2022-04-15", 0.186], ["2022-04-18", 0.184], ["2022-04-19", 0.184], ["2022-04-27", 0.184], ["2022-04-27", 0.181], ["2022-04-28", 0.181], ["2022-05-01", 0.179], ["2022-05-02", 0.173], ["2022-05-03", 0.176], ["2022-05-04", 0.176], ["2022-05-04", 0.175], ["2022-05-06", 0.172], ["2022-05-11", 0.172], ["2022-05-11", 0.168], ["2022-05-16", 0.168], ["2022-05-18", 0.168], ["2022-05-19", 0.164], ["2022-05-22", 0.166], ["2022-05-24", 0.166], ["2022-05-27", 0.161], ["2022-05-28", 0.161], ["2022-05-30", 0.16], ["2022-05-30", 0.158], ["2022-06-01", 0.158], ["2022-06-02", 0.151], ["2022-06-02", 0.149], ["2022-06-03", 0.148], ["2022-06-04", 0.146], ["2022-06-06", 0.146], ["2022-06-07", 0.144], ["2022-06-07", 0.141], ["2022-06-08", 0.141], ["2022-06-08", 0.141], ["2022-06-09", 0.139], ["2022-06-11", 0.139], ["2022-06-11", 0.139], ["2022-06-12", 0.148], ["2022-06-13", 0.147], ["2022-06-14", 0.147], ["2022-06-14", 0.147], ["2022-06-15", 0.145], ["2022-06-16", 0.145], ["2022-06-16", 0.142], ["2022-06-19", 0.142], ["2022-06-19", 0.142], ["2022-06-21", 0.143], ["2022-06-23", 0.143], ["2022-06-23", 0.14], ["2022-06-24", 0.139], ["2022-06-25", 0.139], ["2022-06-25", 0.139], ["2022-06-26", 0.136], ["2022-06-27", 0.136], ["2022-06-28", 0.135], ["2022-06-28", 0.135], ["2022-06-29", 0.133], ["2022-06-30", 0.119], ["2022-06-30", 0.113], ["2022-06-30", 0.112]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10130/ | For nearly two years, the global economy has struggled with a deficit of semiconductor chips -- the tiny integrated circuits that are critical components in everything from cars and refrigerators to AR/VR and weapons systems. Chip lead time is one indicator of the severity of the crisis. | Economics & Business | This question resolves at any point that average lead times drop to below 15 weeks on average and is based on data and analysis from the Susquehanna Financial Group.
Data can be posted or reported by other media platforms or news sites as long it is clearly attributable to Susquehanna Financial Group. An example post can be found here from January 4, 2022.
If data is posted for June 15 and July 15 and the lead time drops below 15 between these postings, only data from before July 1 will be utilized for resolution. Data postings and data for certain dates might not necessarily align, so for this question, we will use data for specific dates rather than the dates data was released | true | 2022-06-30 | Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-09 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://news.crunchbase.com/cybersecurity/venture-to-cybersecurity-drops-by-a-third/", "https://news.crunchbase.com/cybersecurity/venture-to-cybersecurity-drops-by-a-third/", "https://news.crunchbase.com/cybersecurity/cyber-funding-pullback-q3-2022-unicorn/"] | binary | [["2022-03-23", 0.7], ["2022-03-24", 0.707], ["2022-03-24", 0.71], ["2022-03-24", 0.7], ["2022-03-25", 0.72], ["2022-03-25", 0.772], ["2022-03-25", 0.772], ["2022-03-26", 0.691], ["2022-03-26", 0.691], ["2022-03-27", 0.673], ["2022-03-27", 0.665], ["2022-03-27", 0.667], ["2022-03-28", 0.663], ["2022-03-29", 0.673], ["2022-04-06", 0.679], ["2022-04-07", 0.679], ["2022-04-09", 0.697], ["2022-04-09", 0.697], ["2022-04-10", 0.701], ["2022-04-10", 0.692], ["2022-04-13", 0.701], ["2022-04-18", 0.701], ["2022-04-19", 0.704], ["2022-04-21", 0.704], ["2022-04-21", 0.714], ["2022-04-24", 0.714], ["2022-04-25", 0.719], ["2022-04-27", 0.719], ["2022-04-29", 0.719], ["2022-05-02", 0.719], ["2022-05-04", 0.714], ["2022-05-08", 0.715], ["2022-05-11", 0.714], ["2022-05-11", 0.726], ["2022-05-12", 0.726], ["2022-05-14", 0.724], ["2022-05-14", 0.724], ["2022-05-21", 0.728], ["2022-05-30", 0.731], ["2022-06-03", 0.728], ["2022-06-12", 0.728], ["2022-06-12", 0.711], ["2022-06-13", 0.71], ["2022-06-14", 0.71], ["2022-06-15", 0.715], ["2022-06-20", 0.705], ["2022-06-21", 0.705], ["2022-06-25", 0.708], ["2022-06-28", 0.708], ["2022-07-01", 0.705], ["2022-07-01", 0.703], ["2022-07-03", 0.7], ["2022-07-05", 0.7], ["2022-07-12", 0.7], ["2022-07-14", 0.706], ["2022-07-17", 0.71], ["2022-07-19", 0.71], ["2022-07-20", 0.708], ["2022-07-20", 0.707], ["2022-07-20", 0.707], ["2022-07-22", 0.706], ["2022-07-24", 0.693], ["2022-07-27", 0.692], ["2022-08-05", 0.692], ["2022-08-18", 0.692], ["2022-09-28", 0.677], ["2022-09-28", 0.677], ["2022-09-28", 0.682], ["2022-09-28", 0.688], ["2022-09-30", 0.689], ["2022-10-01", 0.69], ["2022-10-16", 0.69], ["2022-10-16", 0.69], ["2022-11-24", 0.69], ["2022-11-25", 0.686], ["2022-11-28", 0.686], ["2022-11-30", 0.687], ["2022-12-06", 0.687], ["2022-12-06", 0.686], ["2022-12-16", 0.674], ["2022-12-17", 0.678], ["2022-12-17", 0.647], ["2022-12-17", 0.639], ["2022-12-18", 0.611], ["2022-12-19", 0.608], ["2022-12-19", 0.601], ["2022-12-20", 0.6], ["2022-12-20", 0.6], ["2022-12-21", 0.603], ["2022-12-22", 0.603], ["2022-12-22", 0.59], ["2022-12-23", 0.59], ["2022-12-23", 0.582], ["2022-12-23", 0.582], ["2022-12-24", 0.582], ["2022-12-24", 0.564], ["2022-12-28", 0.561], ["2022-12-28", 0.56], ["2022-12-30", 0.559], ["2022-12-31", 0.459], ["2022-12-31", 0.428]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10132/ | Venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies in 2021 wildly surpassed previous years' funding – coming out around $21.8 billion | Economics & Business | This question will resolve as Yes if Crunchbase reports that the amount of venture capital investment into cybersecurity companies in 2022 surpasses $21.8 billion USD.
If Crunchbase does not report on the annual and quarterly levels of cybersecurity VC investment, then this question will resolve through the median of reports from at least three other reputable platforms. If this is not possible then this question will resolve ambiguously | true | 2022-12-31 | Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.natlawreview.com/article/24-hours-government-likely-to-require-notice-ransomware-payments-banks-other-key"] | binary | [["2022-03-23", 0.05], ["2022-03-23", 0.347], ["2022-03-24", 0.347], ["2022-03-24", 0.45], ["2022-03-25", 0.433], ["2022-03-26", 0.454], ["2022-03-26", 0.453], ["2022-03-27", 0.453], ["2022-03-28", 0.473], ["2022-03-30", 0.473], ["2022-04-04", 0.479], ["2022-04-04", 0.478], ["2022-04-05", 0.498], ["2022-04-05", 0.499], ["2022-04-06", 0.513], ["2022-04-06", 0.512], ["2022-04-10", 0.506], ["2022-04-13", 0.506], ["2022-04-18", 0.509], ["2022-04-19", 0.482], ["2022-04-21", 0.488], ["2022-04-21", 0.488], ["2022-04-27", 0.489], ["2022-05-02", 0.484], ["2022-05-02", 0.485], ["2022-05-03", 0.485], ["2022-05-04", 0.465], ["2022-05-04", 0.465], ["2022-05-09", 0.473], ["2022-05-11", 0.472], ["2022-05-11", 0.452], ["2022-05-14", 0.452], ["2022-05-14", 0.452], ["2022-05-30", 0.452], ["2022-06-04", 0.452], ["2022-06-07", 0.45], ["2022-06-11", 0.45], ["2022-06-11", 0.45], ["2022-06-11", 0.449], ["2022-06-12", 0.458], ["2022-06-14", 0.458], ["2022-06-21", 0.458], ["2022-06-25", 0.461], ["2022-06-28", 0.458], ["2022-06-28", 0.472], ["2022-06-29", 0.457], ["2022-07-05", 0.457], ["2022-07-06", 0.454], ["2022-07-12", 0.453], ["2022-07-15", 0.457], ["2022-07-16", 0.457], ["2022-07-20", 0.449], ["2022-07-20", 0.444], ["2022-07-22", 0.437], ["2022-07-24", 0.436], ["2022-07-26", 0.435], ["2022-07-27", 0.438], ["2022-08-05", 0.438], ["2022-08-15", 0.438], ["2022-08-16", 0.437], ["2022-08-18", 0.437], ["2022-09-18", 0.434], ["2022-09-19", 0.433], ["2022-09-20", 0.433], ["2022-10-09", 0.421], ["2022-10-10", 0.419], ["2022-10-11", 0.418], ["2022-10-12", 0.418], ["2022-10-12", 0.406], ["2022-10-16", 0.406], ["2022-10-16", 0.407], ["2022-10-30", 0.418], ["2022-10-31", 0.42], ["2022-11-01", 0.42], ["2022-11-01", 0.421], ["2022-11-18", 0.421], ["2022-11-18", 0.413], ["2022-11-23", 0.404], ["2022-11-24", 0.402], ["2022-12-02", 0.396], ["2022-12-03", 0.395], ["2022-12-04", 0.393], ["2022-12-05", 0.393], ["2022-12-06", 0.382], ["2022-12-06", 0.378], ["2022-12-07", 0.371], ["2022-12-08", 0.37], ["2022-12-16", 0.363], ["2022-12-17", 0.363], ["2022-12-17", 0.352], ["2022-12-18", 0.352], ["2022-12-22", 0.344], ["2022-12-23", 0.344], ["2022-12-24", 0.343], ["2022-12-25", 0.341], ["2022-12-25", 0.341], ["2022-12-29", 0.338], ["2022-12-30", 0.323], ["2022-12-30", 0.315], ["2022-12-31", 0.244], ["2022-12-31", 0.223]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10133/ | Over the last year, the Biden administration has tried to mitigate the ransomware crisis with a combination of different tools. One of these has been to disincentivize ransomware attacks by sanctioning currency exchanges that process illegal transactions, intercepting payments already issued by a victim company. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if one or more of the following occurs between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022:
1) The White House must propose to Congress legislation banning or limiting ransomware payments. Proposed legislation does not need to pass for this question to resolve to “yes.”
2) The White House issues a national security memorandum or executive order banning or limiting ransomware payments.
3) One or more executive branch agencies such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency or Office of the National Cyber Director must put forth regulations or compliance measures banning or limiting ransomware payments in one or more sectors or for one or more types of company. Recommendations or advice is insufficient to trigger resolution.
Mixed or conflicting messaging from the White House will still resolve to yes so long as any one of the above is met.
As ransomware payments are made predominately through cryptocurrency, a ban or limit on cryptocurrency trading will only trigger resolution if the primary reason is to ban or limit ransomware payments.
All messages from the White House or U.S. government must be published before January 1, 2023 00:00 GMT to count towards resolution.
If there is ambiguity, Metaculus admins will use their best judgment which may include asking subject matter experts | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.forbes.com/sites/emilsayegh/2022/12/13/2022-in-review-an-eventful-cybersecurity-year/?sh=69fa6327352f", "https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/data-integrity-security-cyberattacks-threat", "https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/lausd-confirms-that-data-has-been-released-in-cyberattack-alberto-carvalho/"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.7], ["2022-03-17", 0.7], ["2022-03-17", 0.625], ["2022-03-17", 0.69], ["2022-03-17", 0.53], ["2022-03-17", 0.536], ["2022-03-17", 0.536], ["2022-03-17", 0.452], ["2022-03-17", 0.392], ["2022-03-18", 0.37], ["2022-03-18", 0.338], ["2022-03-19", 0.338], ["2022-03-19", 0.378], ["2022-03-21", 0.378], ["2022-03-22", 0.378], ["2022-03-22", 0.37], ["2022-03-22", 0.392], ["2022-03-25", 0.392], ["2022-03-25", 0.368], ["2022-03-25", 0.368], ["2022-03-26", 0.349], ["2022-03-26", 0.349], ["2022-03-26", 0.348], ["2022-03-26", 0.364], ["2022-03-26", 0.364], ["2022-03-27", 0.355], ["2022-03-27", 0.355], ["2022-03-27", 0.354], ["2022-03-27", 0.351], ["2022-03-28", 0.346], ["2022-04-13", 0.342], ["2022-04-15", 0.342], ["2022-04-18", 0.34], ["2022-04-21", 0.344], ["2022-05-03", 0.344], ["2022-05-04", 0.341], ["2022-05-06", 0.339], ["2022-05-11", 0.339], ["2022-05-11", 0.366], ["2022-05-11", 0.366], ["2022-05-14", 0.368], ["2022-05-27", 0.369], ["2022-05-30", 0.367], ["2022-06-01", 0.373], ["2022-06-03", 0.375], ["2022-06-04", 0.375], ["2022-06-04", 0.379], ["2022-06-04", 0.379], ["2022-06-05", 0.383], ["2022-06-05", 0.38], ["2022-06-07", 0.38], ["2022-06-07", 0.372], ["2022-06-07", 0.378], ["2022-06-11", 0.38], ["2022-06-11", 0.38], ["2022-06-12", 0.389], ["2022-06-12", 0.389], ["2022-06-14", 0.389], ["2022-06-16", 0.388], ["2022-06-21", 0.388], ["2022-06-21", 0.388], ["2022-06-26", 0.383], ["2022-06-28", 0.386], ["2022-06-29", 0.381], ["2022-06-30", 0.382], ["2022-06-30", 0.383], ["2022-06-30", 0.383], ["2022-06-30", 0.377], ["2022-06-30", 0.377], ["2022-06-30", 0.375], ["2022-06-30", 0.375], ["2022-06-30", 0.368], ["2022-06-30", 0.365], ["2022-06-30", 0.367], ["2022-06-30", 0.363], ["2022-07-01", 0.363], ["2022-07-01", 0.361], ["2022-07-01", 0.352]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10140/ | The CIA triad – Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability – is at the heart of cybersecurity. Ransomware has increasingly targeted confidentiality and availability. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if, between March 1, 2022 to July 1, 2022, a major cyber incident has targeted the integrity of system data such that the data remains in the system and readable, but has been injected with incorrect or external data. This question will resolve according to credible reports published on or before December 31, 2022.
An incident is defined as “major” if it does one or more of the following:(a) Impacts a critical infrastructure owner or operator; (b) Costs more than $1 million in damage, whether internally to the company and/or externally to clients and consumers; (c) Causes direct physical harm to one or more persons
Critical infrastructure is defined by the US government as:
"sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof"
An example of this type of attack may include: A hospital hit by ransomware. Integrity loss would result if hackers purposefully mixed, or inserted new, patient information, for example blood types, such that any blood transfusions needing to occur may result in potentially life threatening situations | true | 2022-07-01 | Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://www.commerce.senate.gov/legislation?congress=117", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8152/all-actions", "https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/perspectives-events/publications/2022/10/the-american-data-privacy-and-protection-act-is-federal-regulation-of-ai-finally-on-the-horizon", "https://www.commerce.senate.gov/legislation?congress=117"] | binary | [["2022-03-23", 0.1], ["2022-03-24", 0.217], ["2022-03-24", 0.422], ["2022-03-26", 0.48], ["2022-03-27", 0.474], ["2022-03-28", 0.374], ["2022-03-28", 0.374], ["2022-03-29", 0.368], ["2022-03-31", 0.366], ["2022-04-09", 0.377], ["2022-04-13", 0.352], ["2022-04-14", 0.351], ["2022-04-18", 0.331], ["2022-04-19", 0.313], ["2022-04-20", 0.313], ["2022-04-21", 0.302], ["2022-04-25", 0.264], ["2022-04-29", 0.264], ["2022-05-03", 0.266], ["2022-05-04", 0.258], ["2022-05-06", 0.253], ["2022-05-08", 0.253], ["2022-05-11", 0.251], ["2022-05-11", 0.237], ["2022-05-12", 0.233], ["2022-05-14", 0.248], ["2022-05-30", 0.248], ["2022-05-30", 0.252], ["2022-06-01", 0.249], ["2022-06-07", 0.248], ["2022-06-11", 0.249], ["2022-06-12", 0.27], ["2022-06-12", 0.27], ["2022-06-14", 0.27], ["2022-06-14", 0.275], ["2022-06-15", 0.281], ["2022-06-21", 0.281], ["2022-06-21", 0.284], ["2022-06-22", 0.285], ["2022-06-23", 0.286], ["2022-06-23", 0.277], ["2022-06-25", 0.29], ["2022-06-25", 0.292], ["2022-06-26", 0.293], ["2022-06-28", 0.293], ["2022-07-05", 0.293], ["2022-07-12", 0.293], ["2022-07-16", 0.293], ["2022-07-20", 0.289], ["2022-07-20", 0.289], ["2022-07-22", 0.29], ["2022-07-24", 0.294], ["2022-07-27", 0.294], ["2022-08-05", 0.294], ["2022-08-15", 0.299], ["2022-08-15", 0.288], ["2022-08-18", 0.288], ["2022-09-03", 0.288], ["2022-09-06", 0.276], ["2022-09-06", 0.276], ["2022-09-19", 0.273], ["2022-09-19", 0.273], ["2022-09-20", 0.272], ["2022-10-16", 0.27], ["2022-10-16", 0.27], ["2022-10-17", 0.26], ["2022-10-19", 0.26], ["2022-10-20", 0.259], ["2022-10-20", 0.26], ["2022-10-23", 0.261], ["2022-10-23", 0.261], ["2022-10-30", 0.264], ["2022-10-31", 0.261], ["2022-10-31", 0.265], ["2022-11-01", 0.265], ["2022-11-01", 0.265], ["2022-11-08", 0.262], ["2022-11-08", 0.26], ["2022-11-15", 0.254], ["2022-11-16", 0.253], ["2022-11-24", 0.248], ["2022-11-25", 0.248], ["2022-12-02", 0.246], ["2022-12-03", 0.246], ["2022-12-06", 0.245], ["2022-12-07", 0.245], ["2022-12-07", 0.239], ["2022-12-17", 0.239], ["2022-12-17", 0.238], ["2022-12-19", 0.235], ["2022-12-20", 0.235], ["2022-12-20", 0.232], ["2022-12-22", 0.232], ["2022-12-22", 0.226], ["2022-12-23", 0.226], ["2022-12-24", 0.225], ["2022-12-29", 0.22], ["2022-12-30", 0.219], ["2022-12-30", 0.219], ["2022-12-31", 0.174], ["2022-12-31", 0.17]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10142/ | Each state and territory in the United States has its own data privacy and/or security laws, many of which apply very different standards of protection. A key challenge for Congress will be whether or not the federal law preempts state law some of the time, all of the time, or none of the time. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if the Senate Commerce committee recommends by voting out of committee a bill addressing the issue of federal preemption of state and territorial data security and privacy laws on or before 11:59pm ET on December 31, 2022 | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-03 | 2022-03-04 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.6], ["2022-03-16", 0.575], ["2022-03-17", 0.493], ["2022-03-17", 0.473], ["2022-03-17", 0.473], ["2022-03-17", 0.442], ["2022-03-17", 0.462], ["2022-03-17", 0.462], ["2022-03-17", 0.446], ["2022-03-17", 0.446], ["2022-03-18", 0.502], ["2022-03-18", 0.507], ["2022-03-19", 0.515], ["2022-03-19", 0.515], ["2022-03-22", 0.533], ["2022-03-22", 0.534], ["2022-03-22", 0.534], ["2022-03-22", 0.54], ["2022-03-22", 0.54], ["2022-03-25", 0.53], ["2022-03-25", 0.499], ["2022-03-27", 0.499], ["2022-03-27", 0.499], ["2022-03-27", 0.493], ["2022-03-27", 0.494], ["2022-03-28", 0.472], ["2022-03-29", 0.47], ["2022-03-29", 0.47], ["2022-03-30", 0.465], ["2022-03-30", 0.465], ["2022-03-30", 0.451], ["2022-03-30", 0.451], ["2022-03-31", 0.454], ["2022-04-01", 0.454], ["2022-04-01", 0.448], ["2022-04-02", 0.448], ["2022-04-02", 0.445], ["2022-04-02", 0.442], ["2022-04-03", 0.436], ["2022-04-03", 0.434], ["2022-04-03", 0.434], ["2022-04-04", 0.434], ["2022-04-04", 0.434], ["2022-04-04", 0.434], ["2022-04-06", 0.429], ["2022-04-06", 0.428], ["2022-04-07", 0.424], ["2022-04-07", 0.424], ["2022-04-07", 0.427], ["2022-04-08", 0.432], ["2022-04-08", 0.438], ["2022-04-09", 0.439], ["2022-04-09", 0.439], ["2022-04-09", 0.439], ["2022-04-09", 0.429], ["2022-04-09", 0.426], ["2022-04-09", 0.425], ["2022-04-09", 0.424], ["2022-04-09", 0.424], ["2022-04-10", 0.413], ["2022-04-10", 0.413], ["2022-04-10", 0.409], ["2022-04-10", 0.401], ["2022-04-10", 0.402], ["2022-04-10", 0.4], ["2022-04-10", 0.396], ["2022-04-10", 0.396], ["2022-04-10", 0.394], ["2022-04-10", 0.394], ["2022-04-10", 0.397], ["2022-04-10", 0.391], ["2022-04-11", 0.392], ["2022-04-11", 0.391], ["2022-04-11", 0.393], ["2022-04-11", 0.394], ["2022-04-11", 0.394], ["2022-04-11", 0.394], ["2022-04-11", 0.394], ["2022-04-11", 0.393]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10144/ | In 2019 the CHIPS for America Act passed Congress but was not funded. In 2021, legislation was introduced in the Senate (Endless Frontiers or "USICA") to authorize $52 billion for the semiconductor industry. Some progressives criticize the proposed allocation as a handout to industry, though other members of Congress pitch the funding as necessary part of a broader technological race between the United States and China. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as “yes” if the US Congress passes the language proposed in the Senate’s USICA bill or House's COMPETES Act or other similar language authorizing for no less than $50 billion directed toward the semiconductor industry and the subsequent Bill is sent to President Biden to sign. The money may be specifically tied to the CHIPS/FABS Act, to research and development, to foundry construction or maintenance, to the Defense Department, or to other tasks or entities designated by Congress or a designated managing department, group, process, or agency.
President Biden does not need to sign the Bill before May 1, 2022 for this question to resolve positively.
Resolution will come from an official U.S. Congress announcement. The money does not need to have been transferred or any payments made. Only the announcement that the legislation was passed needs to be made to trigger resolution | true | 2022-04-11 | Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-01 | 2022-03-04 | ["https://fitara.meritalk.com/?sort=grade"] | binary | [["2022-03-08", 0.29], ["2022-03-08", 0.37], ["2022-03-08", 0.373], ["2022-03-08", 0.478], ["2022-03-08", 0.44], ["2022-03-08", 0.437], ["2022-03-09", 0.437], ["2022-03-10", 0.425], ["2022-03-10", 0.422], ["2022-03-10", 0.422], ["2022-03-10", 0.422], ["2022-03-10", 0.448], ["2022-03-10", 0.449], ["2022-03-11", 0.45], ["2022-03-12", 0.45], ["2022-03-12", 0.419], ["2022-03-13", 0.419], ["2022-03-13", 0.454], ["2022-03-13", 0.454], ["2022-03-15", 0.451], ["2022-03-15", 0.449], ["2022-03-15", 0.449], ["2022-03-17", 0.449], ["2022-03-17", 0.453], ["2022-03-17", 0.453], ["2022-03-17", 0.436], ["2022-03-18", 0.434], ["2022-03-19", 0.433], ["2022-03-21", 0.426], ["2022-03-22", 0.427], ["2022-03-22", 0.427], ["2022-03-26", 0.417], ["2022-03-27", 0.416], ["2022-03-27", 0.416], ["2022-03-28", 0.399], ["2022-04-07", 0.399], ["2022-04-11", 0.416], ["2022-04-12", 0.416], ["2022-04-12", 0.414], ["2022-04-13", 0.414], ["2022-04-13", 0.408], ["2022-04-13", 0.408], ["2022-04-13", 0.404], ["2022-04-14", 0.404], ["2022-04-14", 0.4], ["2022-04-18", 0.367], ["2022-04-18", 0.365], ["2022-04-19", 0.365], ["2022-04-20", 0.365], ["2022-04-20", 0.36], ["2022-04-20", 0.359], ["2022-04-21", 0.361], ["2022-04-21", 0.361], ["2022-04-23", 0.361], ["2022-04-25", 0.363], ["2022-04-27", 0.356], ["2022-04-28", 0.356], ["2022-05-01", 0.362], ["2022-05-02", 0.361], ["2022-05-04", 0.359], ["2022-05-11", 0.36], ["2022-05-11", 0.351], ["2022-05-11", 0.351], ["2022-05-11", 0.351], ["2022-05-12", 0.351], ["2022-05-17", 0.357], ["2022-05-18", 0.357], ["2022-05-21", 0.359], ["2022-05-24", 0.36], ["2022-05-30", 0.356], ["2022-06-02", 0.355], ["2022-06-04", 0.351], ["2022-06-07", 0.353], ["2022-06-11", 0.353], ["2022-06-12", 0.364], ["2022-06-14", 0.364], ["2022-06-16", 0.363], ["2022-06-16", 0.363], ["2022-06-21", 0.359], ["2022-06-28", 0.359], ["2022-06-28", 0.36], ["2022-06-29", 0.36], ["2022-06-29", 0.36], ["2022-06-29", 0.361], ["2022-06-30", 0.36], ["2022-06-30", 0.361], ["2022-06-30", 0.36]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10145/ | The FITARA scorecard is a biennial reporting process in which federal agencies get graded on their levels of cybersecurity and technological modernization. In FITARA 13.0, dating to Dec. 2021, the median cyber score was a C (2 A's, 6 B's, 9 C's, 6 D's). | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as yes if the median score for all federal departments in the “Cyber” category in FITARA 14.0 on the Meritalk site is "B-" or higher. Data will be found in the 'Breakdown' table.
FITARA is a semi-annual scorecard and is next scheduled for July 2022. If revisions to FITARA cause the July 2022 round of FITARA to be skipped or delayed, this question will be resolved when the next scorecard is released. If no scorecard is released by May 30, 2023 this will resolve ambiguously | true | 2022-06-30 | In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-30 | 2022-03-07 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-07", 0.01], ["2022-03-07", 0.057], ["2022-03-08", 0.066], ["2022-03-10", 0.066], ["2022-03-12", 0.068], ["2022-03-13", 0.068], ["2022-03-13", 0.068], ["2022-03-14", 0.068], ["2022-03-16", 0.068], ["2022-03-17", 0.066], ["2022-03-19", 0.065], ["2022-03-20", 0.065], ["2022-03-20", 0.065], ["2022-03-21", 0.065], ["2022-03-23", 0.065], ["2022-03-24", 0.065], ["2022-03-25", 0.065], ["2022-03-26", 0.065], ["2022-03-27", 0.066], ["2022-03-28", 0.066], ["2022-03-30", 0.064], ["2022-03-30", 0.064], ["2022-04-01", 0.062], ["2022-04-02", 0.061], ["2022-04-03", 0.061], ["2022-04-04", 0.059], ["2022-04-05", 0.058], ["2022-04-06", 0.057], ["2022-04-07", 0.057], ["2022-04-08", 0.057], ["2022-04-09", 0.056], ["2022-04-10", 0.056], ["2022-04-11", 0.056], ["2022-04-12", 0.055], ["2022-04-13", 0.056], ["2022-04-14", 0.055], ["2022-04-15", 0.055], ["2022-04-16", 0.054], ["2022-04-17", 0.054], ["2022-04-19", 0.055], ["2022-04-20", 0.054], ["2022-04-21", 0.054], ["2022-04-22", 0.054], ["2022-04-23", 0.055], ["2022-04-24", 0.055], ["2022-04-26", 0.055], ["2022-04-26", 0.056], ["2022-04-27", 0.055], ["2022-04-28", 0.055], ["2022-04-29", 0.055], ["2022-04-30", 0.056], ["2022-05-01", 0.055], ["2022-05-02", 0.055], ["2022-05-03", 0.055], ["2022-05-05", 0.055], ["2022-05-06", 0.054], ["2022-05-07", 0.054], ["2022-05-09", 0.054], ["2022-05-10", 0.054], ["2022-05-11", 0.057], ["2022-05-12", 0.057], ["2022-05-13", 0.057], ["2022-05-15", 0.057], ["2022-05-16", 0.057], ["2022-05-17", 0.057], ["2022-05-18", 0.057], ["2022-05-19", 0.057], ["2022-05-21", 0.057], ["2022-05-23", 0.057], ["2022-05-24", 0.056], ["2022-05-25", 0.056], ["2022-05-27", 0.056], ["2022-05-28", 0.055], ["2022-05-29", 0.055], ["2022-05-30", 0.055], ["2022-05-31", 0.055], ["2022-06-01", 0.053], ["2022-06-02", 0.052], ["2022-06-03", 0.053], ["2022-06-04", 0.052], ["2022-06-06", 0.052], ["2022-06-07", 0.052], ["2022-06-08", 0.052], ["2022-06-10", 0.051], ["2022-06-11", 0.051], ["2022-06-12", 0.052], ["2022-06-13", 0.051], ["2022-06-14", 0.051], ["2022-06-15", 0.051], ["2022-06-16", 0.051], ["2022-06-17", 0.051], ["2022-06-19", 0.051], ["2022-06-19", 0.051], ["2022-06-21", 0.051], ["2022-06-22", 0.05], ["2022-06-23", 0.05], ["2022-06-25", 0.048], ["2022-06-25", 0.048], ["2022-06-26", 0.048], ["2022-06-28", 0.048], ["2022-06-29", 0.041]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10197/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will any country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?
Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked only once in NATO history: by the United States after the attacks on September 11, 2001. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if, between March 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is invoked by a NATO country. This question may resolve on the basis of official announcements by NATO representatives or government officials | true | 2022-06-29 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-03-08 | ["https://polymarket.com/market/will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-be-the-2022-time-person-of-the-year", "https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1600470652363866113", "https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1599678751402786816", "https://www.ft.com/content/9599247f-c3cb-4d3c-a0b6-771f0aac8699", "https://www.today.com/news/time-2022-person-of-the-year-shortlist-rcna60072", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12859/zelensky-gets-person-of-the-year-cover/", "https://net.lib.byu.edu/estu/wwi/memoir/Legation/Gibson1.htm", "https://www.metaculus.com/help/guidelines/", "https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1574353850655510528", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_invasion_of_Poland", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year", "https://www.jpost.com/50-most-influential-jews/article-717707"] | binary | [["2022-03-11", 0.615], ["2022-03-13", 0.613], ["2022-03-16", 0.621], ["2022-03-18", 0.624], ["2022-03-23", 0.624], ["2022-03-27", 0.625], ["2022-03-28", 0.625], ["2022-03-30", 0.625], ["2022-04-01", 0.626], ["2022-04-03", 0.626], ["2022-04-07", 0.627], ["2022-04-10", 0.627], ["2022-04-14", 0.627], ["2022-04-17", 0.627], ["2022-04-19", 0.628], ["2022-04-22", 0.631], ["2022-04-24", 0.631], ["2022-04-26", 0.633], ["2022-04-30", 0.634], ["2022-05-02", 0.634], ["2022-05-05", 0.635], ["2022-05-07", 0.637], ["2022-05-11", 0.637], ["2022-05-13", 0.634], ["2022-05-15", 0.635], ["2022-05-17", 0.635], ["2022-05-26", 0.634], ["2022-05-28", 0.631], ["2022-06-02", 0.629], ["2022-06-04", 0.629], ["2022-06-06", 0.63], ["2022-06-09", 0.63], ["2022-06-11", 0.633], ["2022-06-14", 0.634], ["2022-06-21", 0.633], ["2022-06-21", 0.633], ["2022-06-28", 0.633], ["2022-06-29", 0.634], ["2022-07-02", 0.633], ["2022-07-05", 0.633], ["2022-07-07", 0.633], ["2022-07-09", 0.633], ["2022-07-12", 0.632], ["2022-07-15", 0.632], ["2022-07-18", 0.633], ["2022-07-21", 0.633], ["2022-07-24", 0.635], ["2022-07-26", 0.635], ["2022-07-28", 0.635], ["2022-07-30", 0.635], ["2022-08-01", 0.635], ["2022-08-03", 0.635], ["2022-08-05", 0.635], ["2022-08-07", 0.635], ["2022-08-14", 0.636], ["2022-08-16", 0.636], ["2022-08-19", 0.64], ["2022-08-21", 0.64], ["2022-08-23", 0.641], ["2022-08-26", 0.641], ["2022-08-28", 0.641], ["2022-08-31", 0.641], ["2022-09-02", 0.642], ["2022-09-05", 0.641], ["2022-09-08", 0.642], ["2022-09-10", 0.642], ["2022-09-12", 0.642], ["2022-09-14", 0.651], ["2022-09-17", 0.663], ["2022-09-20", 0.665], ["2022-09-23", 0.664], ["2022-09-25", 0.669], ["2022-09-27", 0.676], ["2022-09-29", 0.683], ["2022-10-02", 0.684], ["2022-10-04", 0.684], ["2022-10-06", 0.686], ["2022-10-09", 0.686], ["2022-10-10", 0.687], ["2022-10-13", 0.687], ["2022-10-14", 0.687], ["2022-10-17", 0.687], ["2022-10-20", 0.687], ["2022-10-22", 0.687], ["2022-10-24", 0.687], ["2022-10-25", 0.688], ["2022-10-29", 0.688], ["2022-11-01", 0.688], ["2022-11-04", 0.688], ["2022-11-05", 0.689], ["2022-11-08", 0.689], ["2022-11-11", 0.689], ["2022-11-14", 0.69], ["2022-11-15", 0.691], ["2022-11-18", 0.691], ["2022-11-22", 0.689], ["2022-11-24", 0.689], ["2022-11-28", 0.688], ["2022-12-01", 0.688], ["2022-12-03", 0.687], ["2022-12-07", 0.708]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10209/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Time Magazine's Person of the Year is a designation that the magazine gives to the person or group that "for better or for worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year".
Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected President of Ukraine in 2019, and has recently gained worldwide attention for remaining in the capital city of Kyiv to lead Ukraine's resistance against invading Russian forces.
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2022?
If Zelenskyy is named Time's Person of the Year for 2022, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
March 13 edit: The fine print has been edited to explain more in detail how this question will resolve should “the Ukrainian people” be named by Time as the Person of the Year.
If multiple people are named Person of the Year (e.g. in 2020, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were named):
If Zelenskyy is one of 4 or fewer people or entities named, this question resolves positively.
If he is one of 5 or more people or entities named, it resolves negatively.
We will count, for example, "Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people, and the UN" being given the award as Zelenskyy plus two entities (thus resolving positively).
Simply naming "the Ukrainian people" or even "the Ukrainian government" without specifically naming Zelenskyy should not be enough to resolve positively, even if his face is shown on the cover.
If Zelenskyy is named Person of the Year posthumously, this question still resolves positively.
If Time does not name a Person of the Year for 2022 at all (including if Time ceases to exist), it resolves negatively. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-08-01 | 2022-03-13 | ["https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/UA?from=1656738000&until=1659416399"] | binary | [["2022-03-14", 0.05], ["2022-03-16", 0.364], ["2022-03-17", 0.356], ["2022-03-18", 0.347], ["2022-03-20", 0.344], ["2022-03-21", 0.343], ["2022-03-22", 0.342], ["2022-03-24", 0.338], ["2022-03-25", 0.339], ["2022-03-27", 0.335], ["2022-03-28", 0.333], ["2022-03-29", 0.329], ["2022-03-30", 0.326], ["2022-03-31", 0.312], ["2022-04-01", 0.309], ["2022-04-03", 0.305], ["2022-04-04", 0.283], ["2022-04-05", 0.276], ["2022-04-06", 0.273], ["2022-04-08", 0.27], ["2022-04-09", 0.266], ["2022-04-10", 0.265], ["2022-04-12", 0.259], ["2022-04-14", 0.258], ["2022-04-15", 0.257], ["2022-04-16", 0.257], ["2022-04-17", 0.256], ["2022-04-19", 0.256], ["2022-04-20", 0.255], ["2022-04-22", 0.255], ["2022-04-23", 0.252], ["2022-04-25", 0.252], ["2022-04-26", 0.246], ["2022-04-28", 0.245], ["2022-04-29", 0.238], ["2022-05-01", 0.232], ["2022-05-03", 0.231], ["2022-05-05", 0.216], ["2022-05-06", 0.215], ["2022-05-07", 0.214], ["2022-05-08", 0.215], ["2022-05-10", 0.215], ["2022-05-11", 0.22], ["2022-05-12", 0.22], ["2022-05-14", 0.219], ["2022-05-16", 0.219], ["2022-05-17", 0.219], ["2022-05-19", 0.219], ["2022-05-21", 0.219], ["2022-05-23", 0.219], ["2022-05-24", 0.218], ["2022-05-25", 0.217], ["2022-05-26", 0.217], ["2022-05-27", 0.216], ["2022-05-29", 0.213], ["2022-05-30", 0.21], ["2022-05-31", 0.209], ["2022-06-01", 0.203], ["2022-06-03", 0.2], ["2022-06-04", 0.197], ["2022-06-06", 0.195], ["2022-06-07", 0.194], ["2022-06-08", 0.193], ["2022-06-10", 0.192], ["2022-06-11", 0.191], ["2022-06-13", 0.195], ["2022-06-14", 0.193], ["2022-06-15", 0.193], ["2022-06-17", 0.192], ["2022-06-17", 0.192], ["2022-06-19", 0.189], ["2022-06-20", 0.189], ["2022-06-21", 0.188], ["2022-06-22", 0.188], ["2022-06-24", 0.188], ["2022-06-25", 0.187], ["2022-06-26", 0.187], ["2022-06-28", 0.187], ["2022-06-30", 0.185], ["2022-07-01", 0.183], ["2022-07-02", 0.179], ["2022-07-04", 0.178], ["2022-07-05", 0.177], ["2022-07-06", 0.175], ["2022-07-07", 0.176], ["2022-07-08", 0.172], ["2022-07-10", 0.171], ["2022-07-11", 0.171], ["2022-07-12", 0.17], ["2022-07-13", 0.169], ["2022-07-15", 0.167], ["2022-07-17", 0.165], ["2022-07-18", 0.166], ["2022-07-20", 0.166], ["2022-07-22", 0.162], ["2022-07-24", 0.159], ["2022-07-25", 0.16], ["2022-07-27", 0.159], ["2022-07-28", 0.159], ["2022-07-30", 0.137], ["2022-07-31", 0.128]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10251/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
If CAIDA measures a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022, when will it begin?
The Verge reported on the Russo-Ukraine conflict on Feb 24 2022:
[...] "as the conflict intensifies, many civil society groups are increasingly concerned about the possibility of direct attacks on the country’s internet infrastructure. Russia has previously been linked to DDoS attacks against Ukrainian government sites — but a full blackout would mean going further, using physical or cyber weaponry to disable telecommunications infrastructure at the network level, and silencing Ukrainians in the process.
[...] The invasion has already reduced internet connectivity in some parts of the country. At present, outages seem to be centered around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is located in the northeast of the country, around 25 miles from the Russian border."
The Center for Applied Internet Data Analysis (CAIDA), based at the University of California's San Diego Supercomputer Center maintains, for their Internet Outage and Detection Analysis (IODA) project, a dashboard monitoring several metrics of internet connectivity.
According to the dashboard, internet connectivity in Ukraine has been slowly decreasing since the start of the conflict with Russia on February 24, 2022. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if there is a 24 hour period between March 7, 2022 and July 31, 2022, in which the "Active probing (# /24s Up)" metric on the IODA dashboard for Ukraine stays below 0.5. This would mean that 50% of the IP address blocks allocated in Ukraine are not reachable, roughly corresponding to "50% of the Ukrainian internet" being down | true | 2022-07-31 | Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-17 | 2022-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.2], ["2022-03-16", 0.368], ["2022-03-17", 0.324], ["2022-03-18", 0.331], ["2022-03-19", 0.346], ["2022-03-19", 0.34], ["2022-03-20", 0.342], ["2022-03-20", 0.349], ["2022-03-21", 0.36], ["2022-03-22", 0.361], ["2022-03-22", 0.36], ["2022-03-23", 0.361], ["2022-03-24", 0.36], ["2022-03-24", 0.362], ["2022-03-25", 0.362], ["2022-03-25", 0.361], ["2022-03-26", 0.362], ["2022-03-27", 0.363], ["2022-03-27", 0.363], ["2022-03-28", 0.361], ["2022-03-29", 0.361], ["2022-03-29", 0.364], ["2022-03-30", 0.363], ["2022-03-30", 0.362], ["2022-03-31", 0.364], ["2022-04-01", 0.364], ["2022-04-01", 0.365], ["2022-04-02", 0.366], ["2022-04-02", 0.367], ["2022-04-03", 0.379], ["2022-04-04", 0.386], ["2022-04-04", 0.387], ["2022-04-04", 0.39], ["2022-04-05", 0.392], ["2022-04-06", 0.395], ["2022-04-06", 0.397], ["2022-04-07", 0.396], ["2022-04-07", 0.396], ["2022-04-08", 0.403], ["2022-04-08", 0.417], ["2022-04-09", 0.432], ["2022-04-09", 0.45], ["2022-04-10", 0.455], ["2022-04-10", 0.457], ["2022-04-11", 0.457], ["2022-04-11", 0.479], ["2022-04-12", 0.531], ["2022-04-13", 0.548], ["2022-04-13", 0.634], ["2022-04-14", 0.661], ["2022-04-14", 0.704], ["2022-04-15", 0.715], ["2022-04-15", 0.722], ["2022-04-16", 0.722], ["2022-04-16", 0.723], ["2022-04-17", 0.725], ["2022-04-19", 0.726], ["2022-04-20", 0.728], ["2022-04-20", 0.728], ["2022-04-21", 0.73], ["2022-04-21", 0.73], ["2022-04-22", 0.73], ["2022-04-23", 0.73], ["2022-04-23", 0.732], ["2022-04-24", 0.732], ["2022-04-25", 0.732], ["2022-04-25", 0.736], ["2022-04-26", 0.747], ["2022-04-26", 0.753], ["2022-04-27", 0.756], ["2022-04-27", 0.757], ["2022-04-28", 0.757], ["2022-04-28", 0.76], ["2022-04-29", 0.766], ["2022-04-29", 0.768], ["2022-04-30", 0.769], ["2022-04-30", 0.77], ["2022-05-01", 0.771], ["2022-05-02", 0.773], ["2022-05-02", 0.774], ["2022-05-03", 0.774], ["2022-05-03", 0.776], ["2022-05-04", 0.78], ["2022-05-04", 0.78], ["2022-05-05", 0.782], ["2022-05-05", 0.784], ["2022-05-06", 0.783], ["2022-05-07", 0.783], ["2022-05-07", 0.784], ["2022-05-08", 0.784], ["2022-05-10", 0.785], ["2022-05-11", 0.786], ["2022-05-11", 0.788], ["2022-05-12", 0.791], ["2022-05-13", 0.793], ["2022-05-14", 0.794], ["2022-05-14", 0.796], ["2022-05-15", 0.801], ["2022-05-16", 0.811], ["2022-05-17", 0.817], ["2022-05-17", 0.817]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10255/ | Euroactiv reported in its article Finland, Sweden to receive enhanced access to NATO intel over Ukraine:
"According to diplomatic sources, NATO leaders on Friday discussed the special role of both (Finland, Sweden) since “they need to be fully informed because of their strategic position for Russia”.
[...]Over the past years, Finland and Sweden have both complained of incidents involving Russian submarines and aircraft breaching airspace in the Baltic Sea region. They have responded by tightening bilateral military cooperation and fostering more ties with NATO.
[...] After deciding to remain militarily neutral in the 1990s, both eventually abandoned their political neutrality when they joined the EU in 1995. Finland and Sweden’s policies of military non-alignment have persisted to the present, although renewed threats of Russian aggression are prompting conversations of potential NATO membership." | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if, by December 31, 2022, Sweden formally asks NATO to establish an Intensified Dialogue for the purpose of joining the treaty, or signs a Membership Action Plan agreement with NATO.
Resolution will be based on an announcement on the NATO website or a statement by the head of the Swedish government.
The question will also resolve positively if NATO sets up another comparable kind of formal "aspiring member" arrangement with Sweden.
Fine Print
If the membership process is started and then stopped later in 2022, this question still resolves positively. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-02-22 | 2022-03-14 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10041/-of-anti-war-protest-arrests-in-russia/", "https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctions-dashboard", "https://t.me/igorstrelkov/11284"] | binary | [["2022-03-15", 0.9], ["2022-03-18", 0.706], ["2022-03-22", 0.726], ["2022-03-25", 0.739], ["2022-03-28", 0.742], ["2022-04-01", 0.74], ["2022-04-05", 0.748], ["2022-04-07", 0.75], ["2022-04-11", 0.755], ["2022-04-14", 0.76], ["2022-04-17", 0.766], ["2022-04-21", 0.776], ["2022-04-25", 0.779], ["2022-04-29", 0.78], ["2022-05-01", 0.781], ["2022-05-03", 0.784], ["2022-05-06", 0.786], ["2022-05-08", 0.791], ["2022-05-11", 0.794], ["2022-05-15", 0.794], ["2022-05-18", 0.795], ["2022-05-21", 0.797], ["2022-05-24", 0.798], ["2022-05-28", 0.797], ["2022-05-30", 0.799], ["2022-06-03", 0.801], ["2022-06-05", 0.804], ["2022-06-08", 0.804], ["2022-06-11", 0.81], ["2022-06-15", 0.812], ["2022-06-17", 0.812], ["2022-06-21", 0.813], ["2022-06-23", 0.813], ["2022-06-26", 0.815], ["2022-06-29", 0.816], ["2022-07-02", 0.819], ["2022-07-05", 0.823], ["2022-07-07", 0.823], ["2022-07-12", 0.824], ["2022-07-15", 0.825], ["2022-07-18", 0.825], ["2022-07-22", 0.825], ["2022-07-24", 0.826], ["2022-07-27", 0.826], ["2022-07-30", 0.826], ["2022-08-03", 0.828], ["2022-08-07", 0.83], ["2022-08-11", 0.832], ["2022-08-13", 0.832], ["2022-08-17", 0.834], ["2022-08-22", 0.835], ["2022-08-26", 0.838], ["2022-08-29", 0.839], ["2022-09-03", 0.84], ["2022-09-06", 0.841], ["2022-09-08", 0.842], ["2022-09-13", 0.842], ["2022-09-16", 0.843], ["2022-09-18", 0.843], ["2022-09-21", 0.85], ["2022-09-25", 0.857], ["2022-09-28", 0.857], ["2022-10-02", 0.86], ["2022-10-04", 0.861], ["2022-10-08", 0.862], ["2022-10-11", 0.862], ["2022-10-13", 0.863], ["2022-10-17", 0.863], ["2022-10-24", 0.863], ["2022-10-28", 0.864], ["2022-11-01", 0.864], ["2022-11-08", 0.864], ["2022-11-11", 0.866], ["2022-11-15", 0.866], ["2022-11-18", 0.866], ["2022-11-21", 0.867], ["2022-11-26", 0.868], ["2022-11-28", 0.868], ["2022-12-01", 0.868], ["2022-12-05", 0.87], ["2022-12-09", 0.87], ["2022-12-13", 0.872], ["2022-12-17", 0.872], ["2022-12-20", 0.872], ["2022-12-22", 0.874], ["2022-12-26", 0.874], ["2022-12-29", 0.875], ["2023-01-01", 0.876], ["2023-01-05", 0.877], ["2023-01-08", 0.881], ["2023-01-12", 0.881], ["2023-01-16", 0.885], ["2023-01-19", 0.886], ["2023-01-23", 0.886], ["2023-01-28", 0.887], ["2023-02-01", 0.89], ["2023-02-04", 0.891], ["2023-02-08", 0.892], ["2023-02-13", 0.894], ["2023-02-17", 0.895], ["2023-02-21", 0.91]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10266/ | According to data aggregator Castellum.ai, Russia became the most sanctioned country in the world following the escalation of global sanctions on February 22, 2022, the day after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the separatist regions in Donetsk and Luhansk as independent and ordered Russian 'peacekeeping' troops there. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve positively, if Russia is, on February 22, 2023, according to the Castellum.AI dashboard, still the most sanctioned country in the world.
Fine Print
The Castellum.ai dashboard provides consolidated Russia sanctions data and is updated daily. According to Castellum.ai's methodology:
Data used to create graphs pertains to designations targeting specific parties (e.g. individuals or entities). Since sectoral sanctions are not list based, they are excluded from the dashboard. | true | 2023-02-21 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?
Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked only once in NATO history: by the United States after the attacks on September 11, 2001. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve in the event that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is invoked by a NATO country. This question may resolve on the basis of official announcements by NATO representatives or government officials | true | 2022-12-14 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-14 | ["https://www.president.gov.ua/en"] | binary | [["2022-03-14", 0.65], ["2022-03-16", 0.451], ["2022-03-20", 0.365], ["2022-03-23", 0.363], ["2022-03-25", 0.36], ["2022-03-27", 0.298], ["2022-03-30", 0.227], ["2022-04-02", 0.213], ["2022-04-04", 0.204], ["2022-04-08", 0.19], ["2022-04-10", 0.184], ["2022-04-13", 0.183], ["2022-04-17", 0.178], ["2022-04-20", 0.175], ["2022-04-23", 0.169], ["2022-04-26", 0.167], ["2022-04-28", 0.167], ["2022-05-02", 0.165], ["2022-05-03", 0.165], ["2022-05-06", 0.163], ["2022-05-08", 0.163], ["2022-05-11", 0.162], ["2022-05-16", 0.161], ["2022-05-19", 0.158], ["2022-05-22", 0.157], ["2022-05-24", 0.157], ["2022-05-27", 0.155], ["2022-05-29", 0.154], ["2022-06-01", 0.149], ["2022-06-04", 0.148], ["2022-06-07", 0.145], ["2022-06-10", 0.144], ["2022-06-14", 0.143], ["2022-06-16", 0.143], ["2022-06-19", 0.143], ["2022-06-21", 0.142], ["2022-06-23", 0.142], ["2022-06-26", 0.142], ["2022-06-29", 0.142], ["2022-07-03", 0.14], ["2022-07-06", 0.141], ["2022-07-08", 0.14], ["2022-07-11", 0.14], ["2022-07-13", 0.14], ["2022-07-16", 0.14], ["2022-07-18", 0.14], ["2022-07-20", 0.14], ["2022-07-24", 0.138], ["2022-07-26", 0.137], ["2022-07-29", 0.137], ["2022-08-03", 0.137], ["2022-08-06", 0.137], ["2022-08-09", 0.136], ["2022-08-11", 0.136], ["2022-08-14", 0.136], ["2022-08-16", 0.135], ["2022-08-19", 0.135], ["2022-08-23", 0.134], ["2022-08-25", 0.133], ["2022-08-28", 0.133], ["2022-08-31", 0.134], ["2022-09-02", 0.133], ["2022-09-04", 0.133], ["2022-09-07", 0.133], ["2022-09-10", 0.133], ["2022-09-12", 0.132], ["2022-09-16", 0.131], ["2022-09-18", 0.131], ["2022-09-21", 0.131], ["2022-09-24", 0.13], ["2022-09-27", 0.13], ["2022-09-30", 0.13], ["2022-10-03", 0.129], ["2022-10-05", 0.129], ["2022-10-08", 0.128], ["2022-10-11", 0.128], ["2022-10-13", 0.127], ["2022-10-16", 0.127], ["2022-10-18", 0.127], ["2022-10-22", 0.127], ["2022-10-25", 0.127], ["2022-10-28", 0.126], ["2022-10-31", 0.126], ["2022-11-03", 0.125], ["2022-11-07", 0.124], ["2022-11-10", 0.124], ["2022-11-13", 0.123], ["2022-11-15", 0.123], ["2022-11-18", 0.123], ["2022-11-21", 0.121], ["2022-11-25", 0.12], ["2022-11-28", 0.119], ["2022-12-02", 0.119], ["2022-12-05", 0.118], ["2022-12-09", 0.118], ["2022-12-13", 0.118], ["2022-12-16", 0.117], ["2022-12-20", 0.117], ["2022-12-24", 0.116], ["2022-12-29", 0.115], ["2022-12-31", 0.103]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10269/ | Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and attacked Kyiv; its forces moved toward Kyiv from Belarus. In early March, heavy fighting in the northwestern suburbs of Kyiv began. President Zelensky has remained in Kyiv and announced his intention not to retreat. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2023 it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera) or from direct statements from at least two Permanent UNSC members (excluding Russia) that Kyiv is under Russian military control. If this does not happen by the end of 2022, this question will resolve negatively | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-04-09 | 2022-03-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-16", 0.945], ["2022-03-16", 0.896], ["2022-03-16", 0.895], ["2022-03-16", 0.895], ["2022-03-16", 0.906], ["2022-03-17", 0.903], ["2022-03-17", 0.906], ["2022-03-17", 0.882], ["2022-03-17", 0.858], ["2022-03-18", 0.85], ["2022-03-18", 0.841], ["2022-03-18", 0.823], ["2022-03-18", 0.807], ["2022-03-19", 0.799], ["2022-03-19", 0.791], ["2022-03-19", 0.786], ["2022-03-19", 0.78], ["2022-03-19", 0.77], ["2022-03-20", 0.766], ["2022-03-20", 0.764], ["2022-03-20", 0.763], ["2022-03-20", 0.763], ["2022-03-20", 0.76], ["2022-03-21", 0.759], ["2022-03-21", 0.753], ["2022-03-21", 0.744], ["2022-03-21", 0.734], ["2022-03-22", 0.728], ["2022-03-22", 0.722], ["2022-03-22", 0.719], ["2022-03-22", 0.714], ["2022-03-22", 0.711], ["2022-03-22", 0.711], ["2022-03-23", 0.709], ["2022-03-23", 0.702], ["2022-03-23", 0.702], ["2022-03-24", 0.698], ["2022-03-24", 0.694], ["2022-03-24", 0.694], ["2022-03-24", 0.69], ["2022-03-24", 0.686], ["2022-03-25", 0.685], ["2022-03-25", 0.685], ["2022-03-25", 0.685], ["2022-03-25", 0.685], ["2022-03-25", 0.685], ["2022-03-26", 0.681], ["2022-03-26", 0.681], ["2022-03-26", 0.679], ["2022-03-26", 0.678], ["2022-03-27", 0.677], ["2022-03-27", 0.677], ["2022-03-27", 0.676], ["2022-03-27", 0.675], ["2022-03-28", 0.673], ["2022-03-28", 0.673], ["2022-03-28", 0.669], ["2022-03-29", 0.669], ["2022-03-29", 0.669], ["2022-03-29", 0.669], ["2022-03-29", 0.663], ["2022-03-29", 0.659], ["2022-03-30", 0.659], ["2022-03-30", 0.657], ["2022-03-30", 0.657], ["2022-03-30", 0.657], ["2022-03-31", 0.657], ["2022-03-31", 0.656], ["2022-03-31", 0.652], ["2022-03-31", 0.652], ["2022-03-31", 0.653], ["2022-04-01", 0.653], ["2022-04-01", 0.652], ["2022-04-01", 0.652], ["2022-04-01", 0.652], ["2022-04-02", 0.651], ["2022-04-02", 0.651], ["2022-04-03", 0.651], ["2022-04-03", 0.651], ["2022-04-03", 0.651], ["2022-04-03", 0.65], ["2022-04-04", 0.646], ["2022-04-04", 0.646], ["2022-04-04", 0.644], ["2022-04-04", 0.643], ["2022-04-05", 0.644], ["2022-04-05", 0.646], ["2022-04-05", 0.648], ["2022-04-06", 0.65], ["2022-04-06", 0.648], ["2022-04-06", 0.648], ["2022-04-06", 0.654], ["2022-04-07", 0.669], ["2022-04-07", 0.688], ["2022-04-07", 0.697], ["2022-04-08", 0.7], ["2022-04-08", 0.703], ["2022-04-08", 0.709], ["2022-04-08", 0.71], ["2022-04-09", 0.711], ["2022-04-09", 0.714]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10282/ | As Reuters reported on March 8, 2022:
Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a default is imminent as sanctions and trade restrictions have undermined its willingness to service debt. The country's financial markets have been thrown into a turmoil by Western sanctions after it invaded Ukraine, raising significant concerns over its ability and willingness to service debt.
[...]On March 16, Russia is due to pay $107 million in coupons across two bonds, though it has a 30-day grace period to make the payments.
"The 'C' rating in Fitch's assessment is only one step above default, bringing it in line with the Moody's current equivalent score of 'Ca'. | Economics & Business | This question will be resolved positively if before December 31, 2022, representatives of Russia announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Russia has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations:
BBC News
Bloomberg
CNN
Financial Times
Reuters
Wall Street Journal
CNB | true | 2022-08-16 | Will Russia default on its debt in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-11-17 | 2022-03-16 | ["https://dronedj.com/2022/09/19/israel-reportedly-permitting-anti-uav-system-transfer-to-ukraine/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israel-said-to-authorize-sale-of-defensive-military-equipment-to-ukraine/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israel-said-to-authorize-sale-of-defensive-military-equipment-to-ukraine/", "https://archive.is/wip/4lWW9", "https://www.haaretz.co.il/blogs/yossimelman/2022-11-17/ty-article/.premium/00000184-8163-d85a-a584-cd6358860000", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/#comment-107192", "https://www-haaretz-co-il.translate.goog/blogs/yossimelman/2022-11-17/ty-article/.premium/00000184-8163-d85a-a584-cd6358860000?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)", "https://www.haaretz.co.il/blogs/yossimelman/2022-11-17/ty-article/.premium/00000184-8163-d85a-a584-cd6358860000", 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"https://thehill.com/policy/international/3709553-ukraine-says-irans-help-for-russia-should-push-israel-out-of-neutral-stance/", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-721016", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/our-secret-weapon-ukraine-enlisting-us-to-push-israel-into-sending-military-aid/", "https://dronedj.com/2022/09/19/israel-reportedly-permitting-anti-uav-system-transfer-to-ukraine/", "https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1585346324337418241", "https://www.debka.co.il/%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%90-%D7%90%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%99%D7%A0%D7%94-%D7%94%D7%AA%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9F-%D7%90%D7%AA-%D7%9E%D7%A2%D7%A8%D7%9B%D7%AA-%D7%94%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%98-%D7%94%D7%99%D7%A9/", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-destroys-iranian-drone-manufacturing-plant-in-syria/ar-AA13hTuv?li=BBnb7Kz", "https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/israel-reportedly-provides-ukraine-with-smart-shooter-anti-drone-system.html", "https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/27/ukraine-may-already-use-israel-made-anti-drone-systems/", "https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-720718", "https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/1666846993-herzog-reiterates-israel-s-support-for-ukraine-slams-iran-s-involvement", "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/israels-president-shares-new-intel-on-iranian-drones-in-ukraine-this-is-only-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/", "https://eurasiantimes.com/israel-is-providing-vital-intel-to-ukraines-russia/?amp", "https://www.debka.co.il/%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%90-%D7%90%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%99%D7%A0%D7%94-%D7%94%D7%AA%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9F-%D7%90%D7%AA-%D7%9E%D7%A2%D7%A8%D7%9B%D7%AA-%D7%94%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%98-%D7%94%D7%99%D7%A9/", "https://www.jpost.com/international/article-720576", "https://archive.ph/1qaif", "https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1584297471110696960", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/10/21/netanyahu-would-evaluate-helping-ukraine-if-elected-prime-minister/10560607002/", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-10-19/ty-article/.premium/41-percent-of-israelis-oppose-arming-ukraine-in-war-against-russia/00000183-efe9-dddc-a1eb-ffe927360000", "https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1582447736695435265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582447736695435265%7Ctwgr%5E161909fe04f5539c4f3815e20f615b26ed332ec8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.haaretz.com%2Fisrael-news%2F2022-10-19%2Fty-article%2F.premium%2F41-percent-of-israelis-oppose-arming-ukraine-in-war-against-russia%2F00000183-efe9-dddc-a1eb-ffe927360000", "https://archive.ph/4cR5Q", "https://en.idi.org.il/articles/38624", "https://archive.ph/tGmVX", "https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1582714072902299649?t=9rIjdi195jnFDkjtsHi8yQ&s=19", "https://en.idi.org.il/articles/38624", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/3696144-israel-holds-fire-amid-mounting-pressure-from-ukraine/", "https://archive.ph/zOY3w", "https://www.axios.com/2022/10/19/ukraine-requests-israel-iron-dome-defense-iran-russia-war", "https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1582690617708056580", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/#comment-91776", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/#comment-102453", "https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1582698723787755520", "https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1582719519285387264?s=20&t=IOz3OSz7o6J6l0F_o-Rqrw", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-10-17/ty-article/israel-arming-ukraine-would-destroy-relations-with-russia-ex-president-medvedev-warns/00000183-e55e-dacc-a7a3-f57eb78c0000", "https://twitter.com/ntarnopolsky/status/1581585226710470656?s=46&t=ovhLp2p4B8w-pkuVLPLQxg", "https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer/status/1579413441684852737", "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rylaw11jgs", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-defense-firm-selling-anti-drone-systems-to-ukraine-by-way-of-poland/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-defense-firm-selling-anti-drone-systems-to-ukraine-by-way-of-poland/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/#comment-91776", "https://www.axios.com/2022/09/21/ukraine-russia-iran-israel-intelligence-kamikaze-drones", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-mk-nir-barkat-visits-uman-despite-warnings-from-israel-ukraine/", "https://jewishinsider.com/2022/03/likuds-nir-barkat-israel-shouldnt-be-mediating-russia-ukraine-war/", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-mk-nir-barkat-visits-uman-despite-warnings-from-israel-ukraine/", "https://www.5tjt.com/barkat-tells-likud-activists-hed-give-up-arab-neighborhoods-in-jerusalem/", "https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/meet-the-ex-jerusalem-mayor-who-wants-to-succeed-netanyahu-and-lead-israel/", "https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-zelenskyy-says-counting-israel-sanction-russia-jerusalem-remains-quiet-penalties", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-send-new-batch-of-defensive-equipment-to-ukraine/", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/08/russia-escalating-jewish-agency-crisis-because-israels-stance-ukraine"] | binary | [["2022-03-29", 0.6], ["2022-03-30", 0.538], ["2022-03-31", 0.567], ["2022-04-01", 0.573], ["2022-04-03", 0.626], ["2022-04-04", 0.511], ["2022-04-06", 0.511], ["2022-04-07", 0.511], ["2022-04-08", 0.509], ["2022-04-11", 0.509], ["2022-04-11", 0.508], ["2022-04-15", 0.508], ["2022-04-18", 0.508], ["2022-04-19", 0.507], ["2022-04-25", 0.506], ["2022-04-25", 0.505], ["2022-05-04", 0.504], ["2022-05-05", 0.533], ["2022-05-07", 0.596], ["2022-05-08", 0.602], ["2022-05-11", 0.602], ["2022-05-12", 0.597], ["2022-05-19", 0.602], ["2022-05-24", 0.603], ["2022-05-24", 0.603], ["2022-05-28", 0.604], ["2022-05-28", 0.604], ["2022-06-01", 0.608], 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It has accepted some Ukrainian refugees and voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same. Israel condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the rhetoric has not been as strong and consistent as that from the US and many European states. Ukraine has complained that Israel has not sent military aid to Ukraine, or joined the sanctions against Russia, though that has started to change. Israel is mediating between Russia and Ukraine and maintains relations with both parties. Ukraine has praised these mediation efforts, in which Israel is a key mediator. However, some critics that have alleged that the Israeli mediation efforts are not the reason for Israel's lack of military aid, but rather its fear of Russia, with which it has a deconfliction mechanism in Syria. American officials including Lindsey Graham, a strong supporter of Israel, have criticized Israel, with Graham specifically protesting Israel's refusal to sell Stinger missiles to Ukraine. A majority of Israelis support Ukraine. There has been a report that if the situation continues to escalate, Israel will support Ukraine more openly. Israeli military experts have expressed openness to sending Ukraine helmets. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if reliable media reports indicate that Israel sent military equipment to Ukraine after February 24, 2022, and before January 1, 2024. An Israeli company or any other entity sending arms to Ukraine will be enough to trigger resolution if the transaction requires the permission of the Israeli government. Otherwise, This question will resolve as No | true | 2024-01-01 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-16 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-22", 0.15], ["2022-03-23", 0.148], ["2022-03-23", 0.158], ["2022-03-24", 0.184], ["2022-03-25", 0.157], ["2022-03-26", 0.118], ["2022-03-26", 0.148], ["2022-03-27", 0.148], ["2022-03-28", 0.147], ["2022-03-31", 0.145], ["2022-03-31", 0.139], ["2022-04-01", 0.143], ["2022-04-07", 0.139], ["2022-04-08", 0.139], ["2022-04-13", 0.168], ["2022-04-18", 0.165], ["2022-04-19", 0.17], ["2022-04-21", 0.17], ["2022-04-29", 0.16], ["2022-04-29", 0.16], ["2022-05-02", 0.166], ["2022-05-04", 0.166], ["2022-05-04", 0.165], ["2022-05-06", 0.163], ["2022-05-06", 0.163], ["2022-05-08", 0.164], ["2022-05-10", 0.158], ["2022-05-11", 0.135], ["2022-05-12", 0.13], ["2022-05-14", 0.136], ["2022-05-16", 0.122], ["2022-05-17", 0.122], ["2022-05-25", 0.122], ["2022-05-30", 0.12], ["2022-06-01", 0.117], ["2022-06-02", 0.112], ["2022-06-03", 0.107], ["2022-06-04", 0.105], ["2022-06-05", 0.104], ["2022-06-07", 0.104], ["2022-06-09", 0.104], ["2022-06-11", 0.104], ["2022-06-12", 0.117], ["2022-06-12", 0.117], ["2022-06-14", 0.114], ["2022-06-21", 0.114], ["2022-06-26", 0.114], ["2022-06-28", 0.113], ["2022-07-03", 0.113], ["2022-07-05", 0.111], ["2022-07-05", 0.111], ["2022-07-12", 0.11], ["2022-07-15", 0.11], ["2022-07-20", 0.11], ["2022-07-22", 0.11], ["2022-07-22", 0.107], ["2022-07-24", 0.105], ["2022-07-27", 0.105], ["2022-07-31", 0.105], ["2022-08-05", 0.105], ["2022-08-13", 0.104], ["2022-08-18", 0.104], ["2022-08-31", 0.103], ["2022-09-03", 0.102], ["2022-09-19", 0.102], ["2022-09-20", 0.102], ["2022-09-23", 0.101], ["2022-10-05", 0.101], ["2022-10-05", 0.101], ["2022-10-12", 0.099], ["2022-10-12", 0.099], ["2022-10-16", 0.099], ["2022-10-16", 0.099], ["2022-10-21", 0.098], ["2022-10-21", 0.098], ["2022-10-30", 0.097], ["2022-11-05", 0.097], ["2022-11-23", 0.097], ["2022-11-24", 0.096], ["2022-12-02", 0.097], ["2022-12-05", 0.097], ["2022-12-06", 0.095], ["2022-12-07", 0.094], ["2022-12-09", 0.092], ["2022-12-10", 0.092], ["2022-12-11", 0.092], ["2022-12-13", 0.09], ["2022-12-15", 0.089], ["2022-12-16", 0.089], ["2022-12-17", 0.088], ["2022-12-18", 0.087], ["2022-12-22", 0.087], ["2022-12-22", 0.086], ["2022-12-24", 0.086], ["2022-12-24", 0.086], ["2022-12-27", 0.08], ["2022-12-29", 0.08], ["2022-12-29", 0.077], ["2022-12-30", 0.077], ["2022-12-31", 0.057], ["2022-12-31", 0.055]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10305/ | Justin Sherman from the Atlantic Council writes:
"In the current crisis, observers should watch the one submarine cable that carries global internet traffic directly into Ukraine: the Kerch Strait Cable, laid in 2014 by Rostelecom, the Russian state-owned telecommunications company. After the annexation, Crimean internet service providers (ISPs) began using the cable to route internet traffic through Russia. Because the most immediate impact of cutting it would be to internet communications in Crimea itself, the Kremlin may be less likely to damage this cable."
"Yet if the standoff over Ukraine intensifies, the Kremlin might calculate that such a move is worth the risk if it could be combined with other actions to disrupt internet communications in the rest of the country, too. In that scenario, Russian military and intelligence assets in Crimea could have their internet access disrupted (which would perhaps give Ukraine a reason to target that infrastructure). But at the same time, targeting the cable while targeting other infrastructure outside Crimea could create panic in the rest of Ukraine and limit the international community’s visibility into further Russian actions—well in line with the Kremlin’s willingness to accept some costs to invade and forcibly exert control over Ukraine." | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2023, any part of the Kerch Strait Cable is reported to have been cut or purposefully damaged by Russian-based actors or the Russian military by at least 3 reputable sources.
Any means of cutting or damaging will be accepted as long as some or all of the cables within the main cable are not functional.
The damage must be attributable to Russia or Russian-based actors. Reports that say "could be" or "may be Russian" will not count toward resolution | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-03-16 | ["https://www.submarinecablemap.com/", "https://euobserver.com/nordics/156342"] | binary | [["2022-03-22", 0.2], ["2022-03-23", 0.21], ["2022-03-24", 0.21], ["2022-03-24", 0.221], ["2022-03-25", 0.17], ["2022-03-26", 0.168], ["2022-03-27", 0.173], ["2022-03-28", 0.172], ["2022-03-31", 0.167], ["2022-03-31", 0.157], ["2022-04-01", 0.157], ["2022-04-07", 0.161], ["2022-04-08", 0.158], ["2022-04-13", 0.201], ["2022-04-18", 0.206], ["2022-04-19", 0.206], ["2022-04-20", 0.207], ["2022-04-21", 0.193], ["2022-04-29", 0.187], ["2022-04-29", 0.184], ["2022-05-01", 0.184], ["2022-05-04", 0.179], ["2022-05-04", 0.175], ["2022-05-06", 0.17], ["2022-05-08", 0.163], ["2022-05-10", 0.161], ["2022-05-11", 0.149], ["2022-05-12", 0.144], ["2022-05-12", 0.15], ["2022-05-14", 0.149], ["2022-05-16", 0.149], ["2022-05-18", 0.146], ["2022-05-18", 0.146], ["2022-05-20", 0.143], ["2022-05-30", 0.139], ["2022-06-03", 0.139], ["2022-06-03", 0.132], ["2022-06-04", 0.129], ["2022-06-07", 0.126], ["2022-06-11", 0.126], ["2022-06-12", 0.141], ["2022-06-12", 0.141], ["2022-06-14", 0.141], ["2022-06-21", 0.141], ["2022-06-23", 0.141], ["2022-06-25", 0.141], ["2022-06-26", 0.139], ["2022-06-27", 0.139], ["2022-06-28", 0.138], ["2022-07-03", 0.135], ["2022-07-05", 0.135], ["2022-07-05", 0.134], ["2022-07-12", 0.134], ["2022-07-15", 0.133], ["2022-07-16", 0.133], ["2022-07-20", 0.131], ["2022-07-22", 0.127], ["2022-07-22", 0.126], ["2022-07-24", 0.126], ["2022-07-27", 0.124], ["2022-07-31", 0.123], ["2022-08-01", 0.123], ["2022-08-01", 0.123], ["2022-08-05", 0.123], ["2022-08-18", 0.123], ["2022-08-31", 0.121], ["2022-09-06", 0.121], ["2022-09-06", 0.12], ["2022-09-18", 0.117], ["2022-09-19", 0.116], ["2022-09-20", 0.116], ["2022-09-26", 0.113], ["2022-09-28", 0.112], ["2022-10-05", 0.112], ["2022-10-09", 0.111], ["2022-10-16", 0.111], ["2022-10-16", 0.119], ["2022-10-24", 0.119], ["2022-11-05", 0.118], ["2022-11-20", 0.122], ["2022-11-23", 0.121], ["2022-11-24", 0.121], ["2022-11-25", 0.121], ["2022-11-28", 0.12], ["2022-11-28", 0.122], ["2022-12-02", 0.12], ["2022-12-05", 0.12], ["2022-12-06", 0.117], ["2022-12-07", 0.117], ["2022-12-08", 0.117], ["2022-12-10", 0.116], ["2022-12-14", 0.116], ["2022-12-16", 0.116], ["2022-12-17", 0.114], ["2022-12-18", 0.112], ["2022-12-22", 0.111], ["2022-12-23", 0.109], ["2022-12-24", 0.11], ["2022-12-29", 0.107], ["2022-12-31", 0.106], ["2022-12-31", 0.083]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10306/ | Justin Sherman from the Atlantic Council writes:
"In the current crisis, observers should watch the one submarine cable that carries global internet traffic directly into Ukraine: the Kerch Strait Cable, laid in 2014 by Rostelecom, the Russian state-owned telecommunications company. After the annexation, Crimean internet service providers (ISPs) began using the cable to route internet traffic through Russia. Because the most immediate impact of cutting it would be to internet communications in Crimea itself, the Kremlin may be less likely to damage this cable."
"Yet if the standoff over Ukraine intensifies, the Kremlin might calculate that such a move is worth the risk if it could be combined with other actions to disrupt internet communications in the rest of the country, too. In that scenario, Russian military and intelligence assets in Crimea could have their internet access disrupted (which would perhaps give Ukraine a reason to target that infrastructure). But at the same time, targeting the cable while targeting other infrastructure outside Crimea could create panic in the rest of Ukraine and limit the international community’s visibility into further Russian actions—well in line with the Kremlin’s willingness to accept some costs to invade and forcibly exert control over Ukraine."
But adds later the potential for even more globally damaging scenarios should the conflict spread outside of Ukraine.
"In the most globally damaging scenario, the Russian military could target any of the dozens of submarine cables linking other parts of Europe to the global internet—and which, by extension, may carry traffic originating in (and destined for) Ukraine. For instance, there are sixteen submarine cables touching Ireland, and cutting some of those cables—a couple of which are in the vicinity of the Russian exercis would damage the flow of global internet traffic and could take several hours or even days to repair. It could also considerably distract those countries from other world events." | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, any part of an underwater internet cable is reported to have been cut, or purposefully damaged, by either Russian-based actors or the Russian military by at least 3 reputable sources.
Any means of cutting or damaging will be accepted as long as some or all of the cables within the main cable are not functional.
The damage must be attributable to Russia or Russian-based actors. Reports that say "could be" or "may be Russian" will not count toward resolution.
A useful source for seeing all the current underwater internet cables can be found [here](https://www.submarinecablemap.com/ | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-01 | 2022-03-23 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-23", 0.51], ["2022-03-24", 0.359], ["2022-03-25", 0.347], ["2022-03-26", 0.324], ["2022-03-26", 0.28], ["2022-03-27", 0.254], ["2022-03-28", 0.241], ["2022-03-29", 0.232], ["2022-03-29", 0.226], ["2022-03-30", 0.212], ["2022-03-30", 0.211], ["2022-03-31", 0.205], ["2022-04-01", 0.201], ["2022-04-01", 0.199], ["2022-04-02", 0.191], ["2022-04-03", 0.189], ["2022-04-04", 0.179], ["2022-04-04", 0.176], ["2022-04-05", 0.175], ["2022-04-06", 0.17], ["2022-04-06", 0.169], ["2022-04-07", 0.168], ["2022-04-08", 0.158], ["2022-04-09", 0.154], ["2022-04-09", 0.152], ["2022-04-10", 0.149], ["2022-04-10", 0.146], ["2022-04-11", 0.141], ["2022-04-12", 0.14], ["2022-04-12", 0.14], ["2022-04-13", 0.139], ["2022-04-13", 0.137], ["2022-04-14", 0.137], ["2022-04-15", 0.136], ["2022-04-15", 0.135], ["2022-04-16", 0.135], ["2022-04-17", 0.134], ["2022-04-17", 0.134], ["2022-04-18", 0.132], ["2022-04-18", 0.13], ["2022-04-19", 0.129], ["2022-04-20", 0.128], ["2022-04-21", 0.127], ["2022-04-22", 0.126], ["2022-04-22", 0.125], ["2022-04-23", 0.125], ["2022-04-23", 0.125], ["2022-04-24", 0.124], ["2022-04-25", 0.123], ["2022-04-26", 0.121], ["2022-04-26", 0.12], ["2022-04-27", 0.12], ["2022-04-27", 0.118], ["2022-04-28", 0.117], ["2022-04-29", 0.117], ["2022-04-30", 0.116], ["2022-04-30", 0.116], ["2022-05-01", 0.116], ["2022-05-02", 0.115], ["2022-05-02", 0.115], ["2022-05-03", 0.114], ["2022-05-03", 0.112], ["2022-05-04", 0.112], ["2022-05-05", 0.11], ["2022-05-05", 0.11], ["2022-05-06", 0.11], ["2022-05-06", 0.109], ["2022-05-07", 0.108], ["2022-05-08", 0.108], ["2022-05-08", 0.108], ["2022-05-09", 0.107], ["2022-05-10", 0.106], ["2022-05-10", 0.106], ["2022-05-11", 0.107], ["2022-05-11", 0.106], ["2022-05-12", 0.106], ["2022-05-12", 0.106], ["2022-05-13", 0.106], ["2022-05-14", 0.106], ["2022-05-15", 0.105], ["2022-05-15", 0.105], ["2022-05-16", 0.105], ["2022-05-16", 0.105], ["2022-05-17", 0.104], ["2022-05-18", 0.103], ["2022-05-18", 0.103], ["2022-05-19", 0.103], ["2022-05-20", 0.103], ["2022-05-21", 0.102], ["2022-05-22", 0.102], ["2022-05-22", 0.101], ["2022-05-23", 0.101], ["2022-05-24", 0.101], ["2022-05-25", 0.099], ["2022-05-26", 0.098], ["2022-05-26", 0.098], ["2022-05-27", 0.096], ["2022-05-28", 0.094], ["2022-05-29", 0.093], ["2022-05-30", 0.078], ["2022-05-31", 0.069]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10423/ | In the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Belarus, ally of Russia, has allowed Russian troops in Belarussian territory to conduct operations on the Ukranian border, but Belarus has not yet deployed its own forces in the conflict.
In March 2022, Ukranian officials accused Russia of firing on Belarus from Ukranian territory to create a pretext for a Belarussian invasion. On March 4, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran in an election opposing Lukashenko in 2020, spoke to Fox News on March 23, 2022, saying "We are receiving information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by the forces of Belarus". | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as "Yes" If, at any time between February 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022, either any 2 Permanent members of the UN security council or official representatives of Russia or Belarus officially state that Belarussian armed forces have invaded Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukranian territory" will be defined as Ukraine's internationally recognized borders as of January 1, 2014. The declaration of a Belarussian invasion must be referring at least in part to events which occurred between February 1, 2022 to June 1, 2022.
If no such declaration occurs by June 1, 2022, 00:00 UTC, this question will resolve as "No" | true | 2022-05-31 | Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-15 | 2022-03-24 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederiksen_II_Cabinet", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election"] | binary | [["2022-03-31", 0.75], ["2022-04-01", 0.75], ["2022-04-02", 0.75], ["2022-04-03", 0.75], ["2022-04-05", 0.708], ["2022-04-07", 0.698], ["2022-04-07", 0.682], ["2022-04-07", 0.665], ["2022-04-07", 0.665], ["2022-04-15", 0.646], ["2022-04-15", 0.646], ["2022-04-16", 0.663], ["2022-04-25", 0.663], ["2022-05-02", 0.652], ["2022-05-11", 0.653], ["2022-05-11", 0.683], ["2022-05-11", 0.683], ["2022-05-19", 0.675], ["2022-05-24", 0.642], ["2022-05-25", 0.641], ["2022-06-07", 0.641], ["2022-06-11", 0.64], ["2022-06-12", 0.645], ["2022-06-14", 0.623], ["2022-06-15", 0.623], ["2022-06-15", 0.622], ["2022-06-21", 0.643], ["2022-06-22", 0.643], ["2022-06-22", 0.645], ["2022-06-28", 0.645], ["2022-07-05", 0.645], ["2022-07-12", 0.645], ["2022-07-20", 0.645], ["2022-07-23", 0.645], ["2022-07-27", 0.68], ["2022-08-05", 0.68], ["2022-08-18", 0.68], ["2022-08-18", 0.686], ["2022-08-28", 0.686], ["2022-08-31", 0.694], ["2022-09-19", 0.694], ["2022-09-19", 0.697], ["2022-09-20", 0.703], ["2022-09-20", 0.703], ["2022-09-20", 0.681], ["2022-09-21", 0.676], ["2022-10-15", 0.685], ["2022-10-15", 0.685], ["2022-10-15", 0.684], ["2022-10-15", 0.684], ["2022-10-15", 0.682], ["2022-10-16", 0.701], ["2022-10-16", 0.701], ["2022-10-17", 0.703], ["2022-10-17", 0.706], ["2022-10-25", 0.706], ["2022-10-26", 0.7], ["2022-11-01", 0.703], ["2022-11-01", 0.703], ["2022-11-01", 0.708], ["2022-11-01", 0.708], ["2022-11-01", 0.715], ["2022-11-02", 0.737], ["2022-11-02", 0.74], ["2022-11-02", 0.744], ["2022-11-05", 0.744], ["2022-11-05", 0.745], ["2022-11-06", 0.754], ["2022-11-06", 0.756], ["2022-11-07", 0.761]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10430/ | General elections were held in Denmark on 5 June 2019:
The elections resulted in a victory for the "red bloc", comprising parties that supported the Social Democrats' leader Mette Frederiksen as candidate for Prime Minister. The "red bloc", consisting of the Social Democrats, the Social Liberals, Socialist People's Party, the Red–Green Alliance, the Faroese Social Democratic Party and the Greenlandic Siumut,[5] won 93 of the 179 seats, securing a parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, the incumbent governing coalition, consisting of Venstre, the Liberal Alliance and the Conservative People's Party whilst receiving parliamentary support from the Danish People's Party and Nunatta Qitornai, was reduced to 76 seats (including the Venstre-affiliated Union Party in the Faroe Islands).
The Coronavirus situation resulted in a large uptick in support for the ruling Social Democratic government as measured by voting polls, headed by Mette Frederiksen. However, the support has been dwindling in the last couple months. The next election will be held on or by 4 June 2023, as Denmark practices a 4 year maximum period between elections. | Politics & Governance | If the next government following elections include the Social Democrats, this resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. (Specifically, this will resolve negatively in the case where the Social Democrats provide support for a government but do not have any ministers in the government | true | 2023-06-03 | Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-02 | 2022-03-25 | ["https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1580168586626494465.", "https://twitter.com/14druzivBanderi/status/1575488353788563456?t=xxv5LFfP17QqrdV_B7VbhA&s=19", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/albania-arrests-two-russians-one-ukrainian-trying-enter-military-plant-2022-08-20/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-accuses-ukraine-poisoning-some-its-soldiers-2022-08-20/"] | binary | [["2022-03-25", 0.66], ["2022-03-28", 0.315], ["2022-03-30", 0.327], ["2022-04-01", 0.335], ["2022-04-04", 0.332], ["2022-04-07", 0.332], ["2022-04-09", 0.331], ["2022-04-13", 0.426], ["2022-04-15", 0.423], ["2022-04-17", 0.425], ["2022-04-21", 0.424], ["2022-04-23", 0.423], ["2022-04-26", 0.423], ["2022-04-28", 0.422], ["2022-05-01", 0.422], ["2022-05-03", 0.421], ["2022-05-06", 0.42], ["2022-05-09", 0.42], ["2022-05-11", 0.416], ["2022-05-15", 0.415], ["2022-05-19", 0.408], ["2022-05-21", 0.401], ["2022-05-24", 0.395], ["2022-05-26", 0.392], ["2022-05-29", 0.388], ["2022-06-02", 0.378], ["2022-06-05", 0.376], ["2022-06-07", 0.369], ["2022-06-10", 0.356], ["2022-06-13", 0.355], ["2022-06-16", 0.352], ["2022-06-18", 0.35], ["2022-06-20", 0.348], ["2022-06-22", 0.346], ["2022-06-25", 0.342], ["2022-06-29", 0.338], ["2022-07-01", 0.335], ["2022-07-05", 0.333], ["2022-07-07", 0.331], ["2022-07-10", 0.329], ["2022-07-13", 0.328], ["2022-07-15", 0.327], ["2022-07-18", 0.327], ["2022-07-20", 0.325], ["2022-07-23", 0.324], ["2022-07-25", 0.321], ["2022-07-29", 0.318], ["2022-08-01", 0.316], ["2022-08-05", 0.312], ["2022-08-08", 0.312], ["2022-08-10", 0.311], ["2022-08-13", 0.311], ["2022-08-16", 0.309], ["2022-08-21", 0.308], ["2022-08-23", 0.302], ["2022-08-25", 0.3], ["2022-08-27", 0.299], ["2022-08-30", 0.299], ["2022-09-02", 0.299], ["2022-09-04", 0.298], ["2022-09-07", 0.298], ["2022-09-09", 0.297], ["2022-09-12", 0.296], ["2022-09-16", 0.294], ["2022-09-18", 0.293], ["2022-09-21", 0.291], ["2022-09-23", 0.29], ["2022-09-26", 0.29], ["2022-09-28", 0.288], ["2022-10-01", 0.284], ["2022-10-03", 0.283], ["2022-10-05", 0.283], ["2022-10-08", 0.283], ["2022-10-10", 0.282], ["2022-10-13", 0.28], ["2022-10-16", 0.278], ["2022-10-18", 0.276], ["2022-10-21", 0.276], ["2022-10-24", 0.276], ["2022-10-26", 0.275], ["2022-10-29", 0.275], ["2022-11-01", 0.273], ["2022-11-03", 0.273], ["2022-11-05", 0.273], ["2022-11-07", 0.272], ["2022-11-11", 0.27], ["2022-11-14", 0.268], ["2022-11-17", 0.264], ["2022-11-20", 0.264], ["2022-11-23", 0.263], ["2022-11-26", 0.262], ["2022-11-30", 0.261], ["2022-12-03", 0.261], ["2022-12-07", 0.259], ["2022-12-11", 0.257], ["2022-12-14", 0.255], ["2022-12-18", 0.252], ["2022-12-22", 0.25], ["2022-12-25", 0.248], ["2022-12-29", 0.246], ["2022-12-31", 0.195]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10448/ | "Western military chiefs have expressed concern that Russia could resort to the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine," according to a UK Parliament research briefing published on March 18, 2022. The report provides relevant historical context:
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union had the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons: with the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons confirming it held almost 40,000 metric tons of chemical agents, including VX nerve gas, sarin, soman, mustard gas and phosgene.
Despite agreeing to destroy its stock of chemical and biological weapons by April 29, 2012 in accordance with the Chemical Weapons Convention, Russia has used chemical weapons in targeted attacks as recently as 2018 and 2020.
As Matthew Bunn, Professor of the Practice of Energy, National Security, and Foreign Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, explains:
They have used small amounts of chemical weapons in assassinations or assassination attempts against dissidents, both in Russia, against Alexey Navalny, and in the U.K., against Sergei and Yulia Skripal. [...] Under the Chemical Weapons Convention, they’re not supposed to have any chemical weapons anymore, but are believed to have significant stocks.
Western governments are preparing for the possibility of Russian use of chemical weapons. On March 23, 2022, the New York Times reported:
The White House has quietly assembled a team of national security officials to sketch out scenarios of how the United States and its allies should respond if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — frustrated by his lack of progress in Ukraine or determined to warn Western nations against intervening in the war — unleashes his stockpiles of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned Russia against the use of these weapons, as reported by the Guardian on March 24, 2022:
Boris Johnson has warned of “catastrophic” consequences for Russia should Vladimir Putin use chemical weapons in Ukraine, though stopped short of saying that would include a military escalation. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if, between March 1, 2022 and January 1, 2023, any of the following three conditions are met:
The heads of state of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council make a definitive statement to the effect that Russia has used chemical weapons.
There is a resolution by the UNSC or by the UN General Assembly condemning the use of chemical weapons in the Ukraine by Russia.
At least 6 of the following sources make a definitive statement that Russia has used chemical weapons: The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post, The Financial Times, The Washington Post.
Clarification on March 29, 2022: please note the following definition includes the use of chemical weapons in targeted attacks, including poisonings.
We will use the definition of "Chemical Weapons" provided by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, whose mission is to implement the provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention:
“Chemical Weapons” means the following, together or separately:
a) Toxic chemicals and their precursors, except where intended for purposes not prohibited under this Convention, as long as the types and quantities are consistent with such purposes; b) Munitions and devices, specifically designed to cause death or other harm through the toxic properties of those toxic chemicals specified in subparagraph (a), which would be released as a result of the employment of such munitions and devices; c) Any equipment specifically designed for use directly in connection with the employment of munitions and devices specified in subparagraph (b).
Where:
“Toxic Chemical” means:
Any chemical which through its chemical action on life processes can cause death, temporary incapacitation or permanent harm to humans or animals. This includes all such chemicals, regardless of their origin or of their method of production, and regardless of whether they are produced in facilities, in munitions or elsewhere. (For the purpose of implementing this Convention, toxic chemicals which have been identified for the application of verification measures are listed in Schedules contained in the Annex on Chemicals.)
Fine Print
We define Ukraine as anywhere within the recognized borders of the country in December 2021, including the Luhansk People's Republic and the Donestk People's Republic. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-01 | 2022-03-28 | [] | binary | [["2022-03-31", 0.9], ["2022-03-31", 0.767], ["2022-04-01", 0.773], ["2022-04-01", 0.767], ["2022-04-02", 0.771], ["2022-04-03", 0.771], ["2022-04-03", 0.764], ["2022-04-04", 0.757], ["2022-04-04", 0.761], ["2022-04-05", 0.767], ["2022-04-06", 0.769], ["2022-04-07", 0.766], ["2022-04-07", 0.767], ["2022-04-08", 0.771], ["2022-04-08", 0.773], ["2022-04-09", 0.773], ["2022-04-09", 0.773], ["2022-04-10", 0.772], ["2022-04-11", 0.773], ["2022-04-11", 0.773], ["2022-04-12", 0.779], ["2022-04-13", 0.786], ["2022-04-13", 0.79], ["2022-04-14", 0.795], ["2022-04-14", 0.801], ["2022-04-15", 0.804], ["2022-04-15", 0.805], ["2022-04-16", 0.808], ["2022-04-17", 0.811], ["2022-04-17", 0.819], ["2022-04-18", 0.822], ["2022-04-19", 0.829], ["2022-04-19", 0.831], ["2022-04-20", 0.833], ["2022-04-20", 0.835], ["2022-04-21", 0.837], ["2022-04-22", 0.84], ["2022-04-22", 0.842], ["2022-04-23", 0.845], ["2022-04-23", 0.845], ["2022-04-24", 0.844], ["2022-04-25", 0.845], ["2022-04-25", 0.845], ["2022-04-26", 0.847], ["2022-04-26", 0.847], ["2022-04-27", 0.846], ["2022-04-27", 0.847], ["2022-04-28", 0.847], ["2022-04-28", 0.847], ["2022-04-29", 0.847], ["2022-04-30", 0.848], ["2022-04-30", 0.848], ["2022-05-01", 0.848], ["2022-05-02", 0.849], ["2022-05-03", 0.849], ["2022-05-03", 0.849], ["2022-05-04", 0.849], ["2022-05-04", 0.85], ["2022-05-05", 0.85], ["2022-05-05", 0.853], ["2022-05-06", 0.854], ["2022-05-07", 0.854], ["2022-05-07", 0.854], ["2022-05-08", 0.854], ["2022-05-08", 0.855], ["2022-05-09", 0.855], ["2022-05-10", 0.856], ["2022-05-11", 0.856], ["2022-05-11", 0.856], ["2022-05-12", 0.857], ["2022-05-12", 0.857], ["2022-05-13", 0.857], ["2022-05-13", 0.858], ["2022-05-14", 0.859], ["2022-05-14", 0.86], ["2022-05-15", 0.86], ["2022-05-15", 0.86], ["2022-05-16", 0.861], ["2022-05-17", 0.862], ["2022-05-17", 0.865], ["2022-05-18", 0.867], ["2022-05-19", 0.868], ["2022-05-19", 0.871], ["2022-05-20", 0.872], ["2022-05-21", 0.877], ["2022-05-21", 0.878], ["2022-05-22", 0.878], ["2022-05-23", 0.879], ["2022-05-23", 0.88], ["2022-05-24", 0.881], ["2022-05-24", 0.884], ["2022-05-25", 0.884], ["2022-05-26", 0.884], ["2022-05-26", 0.885], ["2022-05-27", 0.885], ["2022-05-28", 0.885], ["2022-05-29", 0.886], ["2022-05-29", 0.886], ["2022-05-30", 0.887], ["2022-05-31", 0.912], ["2022-05-31", 0.915]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10492/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The city of Mariupol has been held under siege by Russian forces for the last several weeks.
The Guardian reports on 2022-03-22 that:
"Local authorities say 80% of the city’s infrastructure has been destroyed, some of it beyond repair. The city has been without water, electricity and heating, and it is impossible to count the number of deaths. This week, Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to surrender Mariupol."
Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1?
This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Mariupol's raions* are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.
Note that Donetsk Oblast contains the Mariupol Raion, which contains the Mariupol Hromada, which contains 4 raions. This question is concerned with that innermost level of raions. | true | 2022-05-31 | Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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"Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa, which has so far been spared the intense bombardment and fighting seen in coastal areas further east, was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine."
...
"More than half of Ukraine's imports and exports move through the port, they said, and it is the last major city between Russian forces advancing past Kherson to the east and the border with NATO member Romania to the west."
Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1?
This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of the Odessa's raions are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports. | true | 2022-05-31 | Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1?
This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Sumy's city territory are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports. | true | 2022-05-31 | Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1?
This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Dnipro's raions are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022.
Resolution will be sourced from reputable media reports. | true | 2022-05-31 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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On April 1 2022, Palin announced her intention to seek election to the United States House of Representatives. According to the New York Times,
Sarah Palin, a former Alaska governor and the Republican nominee for vice president in 2008, said Friday that she was entering the race for Alaska’s lone congressional seat, marking her return to national politics after she helped revive the anti-establishment rhetoric that has come to define the Republican Party.
She will be joining a crowded field of nearly 40 candidates to fill the House seat left vacant by Representative Don Young, whose unexpected death last month has spurred one of the largest political shifts in the state in 50 years.
Ms. Palin said she planned to honor Mr. Young’s legacy, painting a dystopian picture of the nation in crisis, criticizing the “radical left,” high gas prices, inflation and illegal immigration.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Republican U.S. Representative Don Young intended to run for re-election, but died on March 18, 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if Sarah Palin is elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska. If Palin is not elected, the question resolves negatively.
Palin must be elected as the US Representative for Alaska for this question to resolve positively; election to Congress in any other capacity does not count | true | 2022-11-07 | Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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This will be the first nationwide truce in Yemen in years, a welcome respite for its war-weary population.
The death toll of the war in Yemen is estimated to have been 377,000 at the end of 2021, according to a report from the UN's Development Programme. The majority of the deaths are among children under the age of five, the report says, with one child dying every nine minutes according to the UNDP.
The war, which is in its seventh year, has seen some 80 percent of the population, or 24 million people, relying on aid and assistance, including 14.3 million who are in acute need. With Yemen importing more than 35% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the disruption to wheat supplies will cause soaring increases in the price of food.
UN officials say the truce could be easily extended. The UN started with a ceasefire meant for just the month of Ramadan, but the Houthis were resisting when it didn't include any easing of the naval blockade.
Exact terms aren't public yet, but the UN press release states that the blockade will indeed be eased some. Fuel shipments to Hudaydah ports will be permitted, and certain flights in and out of Sana'a will also be allowed.
The two sides are also discussing a prisoner swap under which hundreds from both sides would be freed.
Ceasefires don't always hold as hoped, but if this one does, it could be the start of a proper peace process.
Credit: this background is adapted from this article here and this article here. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coaltion has stood for two months, beginning on midnight of April 2, 2022 (GMT+3) and ending on midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3). The ceasefire will be deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. This question will resolve negatively if the ceasefire breaks down before midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3) | true | 2022-06-01 | Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?
Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? [closed]
Donald John Trump, born June 14, 1946, is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump's social media presence attracted attention worldwide since he joined Twitter in 2009. He frequently tweeted during the 2016 election campaign and as president, until his ban in the final days of his term. Over twelve years, Trump posted around 57,000 tweets, often using Twitter as a direct means of communication with the public and side-lining the press. He had accrued more than 88 million followers on the platform before he was banned.
Trump was 'permanently suspended' from Twitter following the events of January 6th, 2021:
After close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them — specifically how they are being received and interpreted on and off Twitter — we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence.
In April 2022, billionaire entrepreneur and Twitter aficionado Elon Musk became Twitter's largest shareholder, with a 9.2% stake in the company, after criticizing the platform for failing to adhere to the free speech principle.
Elon Musk on Twitter: Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to November 5, 2024, the date of the 60th quadrennial United States presidential election, Donald J. Trump is permitted to directly operate a personal Twitter account. Trump must be allowed to tweet on his own behalf for a positive resolution; restrictions that allow Trump to post only via an intermediary will not count.
Trump need not actually choose to do this to resolve the question as Yes; he must merely be allowed to do so.
This question will resolve on the basis of statements by Twitter, or credible media reports | true | 2024-11-01 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-04-06 | ["https://twitter.com/geoffreyyork/status/1598676382581768196?s=20&t=ntPv5whqb1JupmnmSwiryQ", "https://twitter.com/AUC_MoussaFaki/status/1587888421917556736", "https://twitter.com/KeffGebre/status/1587880724027396099?t=UKxHBUXhDDI7Az-TEWjm8Q&s=19", "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/first-un-aid-convoy-since-ceasefire-enters-ethiopias-tigray-2022-11-16/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-63490546", "https://twitter.com/Tigrai_TV/status/1562316859998879744?t=d7PpodMJYWdr3ZZFQyuyDg&s=19", "https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-conflict/eu-u-s-officials-call-for-banking-telecoms-restoration-in-ethiopias-tigray-idUSKBN2P81O2"] | binary | [["2022-05-02", 0.4], ["2022-05-02", 0.4], ["2022-05-02", 0.38], ["2022-05-02", 0.415], ["2022-05-03", 0.423], ["2022-05-03", 0.423], ["2022-05-04", 0.43], ["2022-05-05", 0.434], ["2022-05-05", 0.435], ["2022-05-06", 0.445], ["2022-05-06", 0.447], ["2022-05-06", 0.448], ["2022-05-10", 0.466], ["2022-05-11", 0.468], ["2022-05-13", 0.44], ["2022-05-13", 0.44], ["2022-05-13", 0.447], ["2022-05-15", 0.45], ["2022-06-07", 0.45], ["2022-06-12", 0.451], ["2022-06-14", 0.464], ["2022-06-21", 0.464], ["2022-06-28", 0.464], ["2022-07-05", 0.464], ["2022-07-12", 0.464], ["2022-07-15", 0.464], ["2022-07-20", 0.464], ["2022-07-23", 0.458], ["2022-07-23", 0.458], ["2022-07-26", 0.462], ["2022-07-27", 0.462], ["2022-08-03", 0.462], ["2022-08-03", 0.455], ["2022-08-04", 0.457], ["2022-08-05", 0.457], ["2022-08-18", 0.457], ["2022-08-18", 0.453], ["2022-08-24", 0.451], ["2022-08-24", 0.441], ["2022-08-24", 0.441], ["2022-08-24", 0.434], ["2022-08-25", 0.431], ["2022-08-25", 0.431], ["2022-08-25", 0.422], ["2022-08-25", 0.416], ["2022-08-26", 0.416], ["2022-08-31", 0.416], ["2022-09-19", 0.417], ["2022-09-25", 0.417], ["2022-10-12", 0.401], ["2022-10-16", 0.401], ["2022-10-16", 0.4], ["2022-10-22", 0.394], ["2022-10-23", 0.394], ["2022-10-23", 0.392], ["2022-11-03", 0.401], ["2022-11-03", 0.423], ["2022-11-03", 0.452], ["2022-11-03", 0.473], ["2022-11-03", 0.503], ["2022-11-03", 0.511], ["2022-11-03", 0.51], ["2022-11-03", 0.525], ["2022-11-04", 0.526], ["2022-11-05", 0.528], ["2022-11-05", 0.529], ["2022-11-08", 0.529], ["2022-11-08", 0.531], ["2022-11-13", 0.538], ["2022-11-13", 0.534], ["2022-11-14", 0.534], ["2022-11-14", 0.536], ["2022-11-15", 0.536], ["2022-11-15", 0.54], ["2022-11-23", 0.54], ["2022-11-24", 0.543], ["2022-11-24", 0.543], ["2022-11-24", 0.548], ["2022-11-24", 0.548], ["2022-11-24", 0.548], ["2022-11-24", 0.555], ["2022-11-25", 0.558], ["2022-11-25", 0.56], ["2022-11-25", 0.563], ["2022-11-25", 0.575], ["2022-11-25", 0.575], ["2022-11-25", 0.592], ["2022-11-26", 0.592], ["2022-11-26", 0.596], ["2022-11-26", 0.605], ["2022-11-27", 0.611], ["2022-11-27", 0.615], ["2022-11-28", 0.615], ["2022-11-30", 0.615], ["2022-11-30", 0.617], ["2022-12-01", 0.619], ["2022-12-01", 0.619], ["2022-12-01", 0.635], ["2022-12-01", 0.655], ["2022-12-01", 0.655], ["2022-12-01", 0.655]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10585/ | The war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean forces that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of April 2022. An estimated 1.7 million people have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands reportedly face starvation if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The United States is escalating pressure on Ethiopia to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone.
In April of 2022 Human Rights Watch put out a report detailing war crimes in Tigray region.
Included in the report:
[On March 24, the government announced a humanitarian truce.
According to AP reporting , "Debretsion (leader of the Tigray forces) proposed an immediate cease-fire to be followed by negotiations." See recent updates to the humanitarian truce.
This NYT article has some good definitions for truce and ceasefire. Quotes below:
truce:
Strictly speaking, a truce is an informal halt in fighting. They are typically arranged locally — think of enemy commanders agreeing under a white flag to allow each side some time to evacuate casualties from a battlefield. Truces tend to be brief and temporary, and do not necessarily signal any willingness to settle the larger conflict.
ceasefire
A cease-fire is typically a negotiated agreement to cease hostilities and take other steps to calm things down, like pulling back heavy weapons or marking out a “green line” or demilitarized zone to separate opposing forces. Though cease-fires are usually meant to be binding, to last a while and to hold even after a few violations, they do not themselves end a conflict, only pause it. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Tigrayan and Ethiopian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no ceasefire has gone into effect by January 1, 2023.
Fine Print
Positive resolution in 2023 is possible if a ceasefire goes into effect late in late 2022. A humanitarian truce will not suffice to answer this question in the affirmative. If a superseding peace agreement is reached within the initial 30 day period of ceasefire, or if the ceasefire period extends beyond 30 days, this question will resolve positively after 30 days of the basic conditions of the ceasefire continuing to be adhered to.
This question may not resolve before 30 days have elapsed from the ceasefire agreement's beginning date. For this question to resolve affirmatively, any subsequent peace agreement must ensure that the conditions of the ceasefire are adhered to under the ensuing agreement.
If a ceasefire is declared void or if one side formally accuses the other of breaching the terms of the ceasefire before 30 days of cessation of hostilities, this will void the initiating ceasefire's potential for question resolution, and the clock will "reset" to zero days.
If a peace deal or otherwise superseding agreement between the two parties, such as an armistice, is reached before a ceasefire is negotiated, then this question will resolve ambiguously. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-05-15 | 2022-04-08 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-21", 0.7], ["2022-04-21", 0.525], ["2022-04-22", 0.567], ["2022-04-22", 0.567], ["2022-04-22", 0.542], ["2022-04-22", 0.504], ["2022-04-23", 0.524], ["2022-04-23", 0.509], ["2022-04-24", 0.509], ["2022-04-24", 0.504], ["2022-04-24", 0.489], ["2022-04-25", 0.487], ["2022-04-25", 0.467], ["2022-04-25", 0.446], ["2022-04-25", 0.446], ["2022-04-25", 0.436], ["2022-04-26", 0.436], ["2022-04-27", 0.423], ["2022-04-28", 0.423], ["2022-04-28", 0.411], ["2022-04-28", 0.411], ["2022-04-29", 0.413], ["2022-04-30", 0.415], ["2022-05-01", 0.404], ["2022-05-01", 0.406], ["2022-05-02", 0.406], ["2022-05-04", 0.407], ["2022-05-04", 0.41], ["2022-05-04", 0.413], ["2022-05-05", 0.416], ["2022-05-05", 0.416], ["2022-05-05", 0.418], ["2022-05-06", 0.429], ["2022-05-07", 0.431], ["2022-05-08", 0.432], ["2022-05-09", 0.43], ["2022-05-10", 0.43], ["2022-05-11", 0.43], ["2022-05-11", 0.422], ["2022-05-11", 0.422], ["2022-05-11", 0.423], ["2022-05-11", 0.408], ["2022-05-11", 0.408], ["2022-05-11", 0.408], ["2022-05-11", 0.404], ["2022-05-11", 0.405], ["2022-05-11", 0.405], ["2022-05-11", 0.395], ["2022-05-11", 0.391], ["2022-05-11", 0.391], ["2022-05-11", 0.39], ["2022-05-11", 0.39], ["2022-05-11", 0.386], ["2022-05-11", 0.386], ["2022-05-12", 0.385], ["2022-05-12", 0.383], ["2022-05-12", 0.383], ["2022-05-12", 0.391], ["2022-05-12", 0.391], ["2022-05-13", 0.391], ["2022-05-13", 0.393], ["2022-05-13", 0.386], ["2022-05-13", 0.386], ["2022-05-13", 0.383], ["2022-05-13", 0.38], ["2022-05-13", 0.38], ["2022-05-13", 0.38], ["2022-05-13", 0.368], ["2022-05-13", 0.368], ["2022-05-13", 0.367], ["2022-05-13", 0.364], ["2022-05-13", 0.364], ["2022-05-14", 0.36], ["2022-05-14", 0.352], ["2022-05-14", 0.35]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10609/ | The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual singing competition between many of the member states of the European Broadcasting Union. The 2022 ESC is being held in Turin, Italy. Eurovision is regularly one of the most watched non-sports television broadcasts, with 183 million viewers in 2021.
There are 40 participants in this year's competition. 24 out of the 27 EU members states are among this number (Hungary, Luxembourg and Slovakia are not competing).
Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the UK are guaranteed places in the final, as the biggest funders of the EBU.
While Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey are members of the EBU, they are not participating in the 2022 ESC.
Belarus was removed from the EBU in 2021, and Russia was in 2022. Neither will participate in 2022.
The EU is an international political and economic bloc of 27 member states. It is distinct from the Council of Europe, European Free Trade Association and Schengen Area.
Rules on a tie situation are viewable here. The question will close after the semi-finals, but before the final. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve positively if a member country of the European Union (as retrievable at the EU Website) is declared the winner of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest on the Eurovision website.
The question will resolve negatively if any non-EU country wins or no country wins.
Fine Print
If there is no winner publicised on the Eurovision website, reputable media reports will be considered. If no voting in the finals takes place, or the voting does not finish, the question will resolve negatively. | true | 2022-05-14 | Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union? | metaculus | 0 |
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For much of the pandemic, China saw its zero-covid strategy as proof of its political system’s superiority in dealing with the virus. But Shanghai’s struggles show Beijing is now clinging to a strategy whose costs and dangers are mounting.
In previous waves of covid, the strategy of mass testing and quarantining positive cases, along with partial lockdowns and border measures, was able to outpace the spread of the virus. But the highly transmissible nature of the omicron variant and its subtypes means it’s moving faster than China’s tried-and-tested methods to control it. Despite the financial hub’s two-stage lockdown—now extended indefinitely—China’s covid cases shot up from double digits in early March to over 20,000 on Tuesday (April 5).
Nevertheless, the consensus seems to be that China won’t relax its prevention tactics until 2023, because of a key political event that will take place in October or November. At this year’s Communist Party Congress, which takes place every five years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to announce his third term. Until it’s over, the whole system is even more geared than usual to maintaining stability and to avoiding a potential embarrassment to the party. | Politics & Governance | China is said to have abandoned their zero-covid strategy before June 1st 2022 if ANY of the following things become true,
A member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party makes a clear public statement announcing that the central government is abandoning their policy of zero-covid, and this statement is not censured or retracted within 24 hours.
Articles from both the Associated Press and Reuters unambiguously state that the government of China is in the process of abandoning their zero-covid strategy.
A generic person who tests positive in China for COVID-19 is no longer legally required to self-isolate for any amount of time, after testing positive.
There is at least one city in mainland China with a population of more than one million people (by metro area) which recorded at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases in the past 7 days, and is not currently imposing any lockdown over a significant fraction (>2%) of its residents. A lockdown is defined as any policy of major restrictions on ordinary travel, or restrictions on social gatherings.
If before June 1st 2022, China has abandoned their zero-covid strategy, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively | true | 2022-06-01 | Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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0.379], ["2022-10-27", 0.426], ["2022-10-29", 0.628], ["2022-10-31", 0.651]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10621/ | Elon Reeve Musk, born June 28, 1971, is a serial entrepreneur and business executive. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company, and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$270 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world according to both the Bloomberg Billionaires Index and the Forbes real-time billionaires list.
In April 2022, it was revealed that Musk had built a substantial equity stake in Twitter, becoming the social media site's largest shareholder. He was subsequently expected to be appointed to the company's board of directors, and indicated a desire "to make significant improvements to Twitter in coming months!"
However, on April 10 2022, current Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal announced that Musk had decided not to join the company's board. No explanation was given as to why. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1 2025, Elon Musk holds the position of CEO of Twitter, including 'Acting CEO' or 'Interim CEO,' or holds a position that carries with it the powers and duties typical of a corporate CEO, even if that is not Musk's actual title | true | 2025-01-01 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-05-15 | 2022-04-10 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-17", 0.4], ["2022-04-17", 0.4], ["2022-04-17", 0.667], ["2022-04-17", 0.667], ["2022-04-17", 0.506], ["2022-04-17", 0.465], ["2022-04-18", 0.465], ["2022-04-18", 0.5], ["2022-04-18", 0.546], ["2022-04-18", 0.546], ["2022-04-18", 0.581], ["2022-04-19", 0.604], ["2022-04-19", 0.604], ["2022-04-19", 0.598], ["2022-04-19", 0.587], ["2022-04-19", 0.601], ["2022-04-19", 0.594], ["2022-04-19", 0.593], ["2022-04-20", 0.591], ["2022-04-20", 0.598], ["2022-04-20", 0.596], ["2022-04-20", 0.596], ["2022-04-20", 0.594], ["2022-04-20", 0.596], ["2022-04-20", 0.594], ["2022-04-21", 0.585], ["2022-04-21", 0.585], ["2022-04-22", 0.581], ["2022-04-22", 0.583], ["2022-04-22", 0.584], ["2022-04-24", 0.584], ["2022-04-24", 0.575], ["2022-04-25", 0.575], ["2022-04-25", 0.586], ["2022-04-26", 0.586], ["2022-04-26", 0.586], ["2022-04-26", 0.589], ["2022-04-26", 0.589], ["2022-04-26", 0.589], ["2022-04-27", 0.592], ["2022-04-27", 0.591], ["2022-04-27", 0.59], ["2022-04-27", 0.59], ["2022-04-27", 0.59], ["2022-04-27", 0.59], ["2022-04-28", 0.593], ["2022-04-28", 0.587], ["2022-04-28", 0.585], ["2022-04-29", 0.588], ["2022-04-29", 0.584], ["2022-04-29", 0.584], ["2022-04-30", 0.575], ["2022-05-01", 0.573], ["2022-05-01", 0.573], ["2022-05-01", 0.567], ["2022-05-01", 0.571], ["2022-05-01", 0.576], ["2022-05-01", 0.576], ["2022-05-02", 0.578], ["2022-05-02", 0.578], ["2022-05-03", 0.577], ["2022-05-04", 0.576], ["2022-05-04", 0.576], ["2022-05-05", 0.576], ["2022-05-05", 0.575], ["2022-05-06", 0.571], ["2022-05-07", 0.57], ["2022-05-07", 0.569], ["2022-05-08", 0.569], ["2022-05-09", 0.57], ["2022-05-10", 0.571], ["2022-05-10", 0.569], ["2022-05-10", 0.57], ["2022-05-10", 0.571], ["2022-05-10", 0.574], ["2022-05-11", 0.574], ["2022-05-11", 0.565], ["2022-05-11", 0.564], ["2022-05-11", 0.563], ["2022-05-11", 0.563], ["2022-05-11", 0.563], ["2022-05-12", 0.565], ["2022-05-12", 0.57], ["2022-05-12", 0.572], ["2022-05-13", 0.572], ["2022-05-13", 0.573], ["2022-05-13", 0.575], ["2022-05-13", 0.582], ["2022-05-13", 0.585], ["2022-05-13", 0.585], ["2022-05-13", 0.586], ["2022-05-13", 0.586], ["2022-05-13", 0.592], ["2022-05-14", 0.593], ["2022-05-14", 0.593], ["2022-05-14", 0.594], ["2022-05-14", 0.595], ["2022-05-14", 0.596], ["2022-05-14", 0.598], ["2022-05-14", 0.604], ["2022-05-14", 0.608]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10623/ | The Eurovision Song Contest is an international songwriting competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, transmitted to national broadcasters via the EBU's Eurovision and Euroradio networks, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner.
The Eurovision Song Contest 2022 is the upcoming 66th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. Forty countries will take part in the contest. The grand final is due to be held on May 14, 2022. | Arts & Recreation | This question resolves positively if an entry representing Ukraine in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest is declared the winner of the contest. The question resolves negatively if an entry representing another country wins the contest.
The question resolves ambiguously if no winner is declared, or if the contest does not take place | true | 2022-05-14 | Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-10-23 | 2022-04-11 | ["https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/xi-jinping-under-house-arrest-heres-what-we-know-on-rumours-of-coup-in-china/ar-AA12cIRw", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-communist-party-politburo-standing-committee-unveiled-2022-10-23/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/23/xi-jinping-to-rule-china-for-precedent-breaking-third-term", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-communist-party-politburo-standing-committee-unveiled-2022-10-23/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/23/xi-jinping-to-rule-china-for-precedent-breaking-third-term"] | binary | [["2022-04-14", 0.95], ["2022-04-14", 0.902], ["2022-04-15", 0.905], ["2022-04-16", 0.911], ["2022-04-16", 0.928], ["2022-04-17", 0.936], ["2022-04-18", 0.938], ["2022-04-19", 0.942], ["2022-04-20", 0.944], ["2022-04-21", 0.939], ["2022-04-22", 0.939], ["2022-04-23", 0.932], ["2022-04-25", 0.932], ["2022-04-29", 0.934], ["2022-04-30", 0.935], ["2022-05-06", 0.935], ["2022-05-06", 0.929], ["2022-05-09", 0.938], ["2022-05-10", 0.938], ["2022-05-10", 0.941], ["2022-05-11", 0.942], ["2022-05-12", 0.942], ["2022-05-15", 0.942], ["2022-05-15", 0.941], ["2022-05-16", 0.941], ["2022-05-18", 0.941], ["2022-05-20", 0.936], ["2022-05-20", 0.938], ["2022-05-21", 0.939], ["2022-05-23", 0.931], ["2022-05-23", 0.934], ["2022-05-24", 0.935], ["2022-05-25", 0.939], ["2022-05-26", 0.94], ["2022-05-27", 0.93], ["2022-05-28", 0.93], ["2022-05-31", 0.929], ["2022-06-02", 0.931], ["2022-06-05", 0.932], ["2022-06-06", 0.932], ["2022-06-07", 0.929], ["2022-06-11", 0.929], ["2022-06-12", 0.928], ["2022-06-14", 0.928], ["2022-06-19", 0.93], ["2022-06-21", 0.93], ["2022-06-24", 0.93], ["2022-06-28", 0.93], ["2022-07-03", 0.931], ["2022-07-05", 0.931], ["2022-07-11", 0.931], ["2022-07-12", 0.931], ["2022-07-15", 0.931], ["2022-07-20", 0.931], ["2022-07-21", 0.932], ["2022-07-22", 0.932], ["2022-07-24", 0.932], ["2022-07-26", 0.933], ["2022-07-27", 0.934], ["2022-07-30", 0.934], ["2022-07-31", 0.934], ["2022-08-05", 0.935], ["2022-08-07", 0.935], ["2022-08-08", 0.936], ["2022-08-12", 0.936], ["2022-08-13", 0.937], ["2022-08-14", 0.936], ["2022-08-15", 0.936], ["2022-08-16", 0.936], ["2022-08-17", 0.936], ["2022-08-18", 0.933], ["2022-08-19", 0.933], ["2022-08-21", 0.933], ["2022-08-21", 0.934], ["2022-08-22", 0.935], ["2022-08-23", 0.937], ["2022-08-24", 0.937], ["2022-08-25", 0.937], ["2022-08-31", 0.937], ["2022-09-02", 0.937], ["2022-09-09", 0.938], ["2022-09-10", 0.938], ["2022-09-23", 0.938], ["2022-09-24", 0.918], ["2022-09-25", 0.919], ["2022-09-27", 0.928], ["2022-10-01", 0.929], ["2022-10-06", 0.929], ["2022-10-06", 0.929], ["2022-10-08", 0.936], ["2022-10-09", 0.936], ["2022-10-09", 0.936], ["2022-10-12", 0.937], ["2022-10-14", 0.937], ["2022-10-14", 0.938], ["2022-10-15", 0.938], ["2022-10-16", 0.939], ["2022-10-16", 0.938], ["2022-10-20", 0.938], ["2022-10-22", 0.939], ["2022-10-23", 0.94]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10634/ | Related Question on Metaculus:
When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?
From Wikipedia,
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be held in Beijing in the second half of 2022. 2,300 delegates will represent the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s estimated 90 million members. Preparations for the 20th National Congress began in 2021 and ended with a plenary session of the 19th Central Committee, a few days prior to the 20th National Congress. In 2021, local and provincial party organizations began electing delegates to the congress as well as receiving and amending party documents. It will not be succeeded by the 21st National Congress until 2027.
The CCP Congress will endorse the membership list of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and will elect the Central Committee, which in turn will approve the members of the Political Bureau and its Standing Committee, the most powerful decision-making body.
It is believed that either current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, or will be newly elected as the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, the highest position held by Mao Zedong. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as "Yes" if ANY of the following events occur before January 1, 2023:
Xi Jinping is re-elected as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Xi Jinping is newly elected as the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party
Xi Jinping takes on a new role that is widely considered to continue his role as the paramount leader of China. If there is a dispute, we will use a consensus from the Associated Press and Reuters to determine whether Xi Jinping is still the "paramount leader" of China by the end of 2022.
Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-10-28 | 2022-04-14 | ["https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-25.asp", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876661/000087666122000890/0000876661-22-000890.txt", "https://courts.delaware.gov/opinions/index.aspx?ag=court+of+chancery", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000087666122000890/0000876661-22-000890-index.htm", "https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-owns-twitter-deal/", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585841080431321088", "https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter-reach-agreement-to-close-acquisition-deal-2022-10?r=MX&IR=T", "https://www.ft.com/content/b429b624-bf82-4ccd-bf69-b75055403952", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/27/twitter-elon-musk/", "https://twitter.com/davidfaber/status/1585785519933472771)", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3896099-twitter-delisting-from-nyse-effective-on-friday-after-musk-completes-deal", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-begin-to-fund-13-billion-in-debt-backing-elon-musks-twitter-takeover-11666824554?mod=latest_headlines", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585341984679469056", "https://seekingalpha.com/news/3894970-twitter-jumps-3-as-musks-debt-equity-partners-told-to-prepare-for-closing", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/twitter-musk-talks-warm-up-as-buyout-closing-deadline-nears?sref=Yg3sQEZ2&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/20/musk-twitter-acquisition-staff-cuts/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/elon-musk-says-he-s-obviously-overpaying-for-twitter?utm_content=markets&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/elon-musk-under-federal-investigation-tied-twitter-deal-twitter-court-filing-2022-10-13/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter", "https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1578136723334250498", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23126733/letter-decision-granting-stay.pdf", "https://twitter.com/ReutersLegal/status/1578098457654759424", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/elon-musk-seeks-stay-twitter-litigation-oct-28-deal-close-2022-10-06/", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23126626/musk-01-motion-to-stay-w-cos.pdf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/musk-twitter-resolution-said-to-stick-on-debt-contingency-issue?srnd=premium&sref=dJOSAJZH&leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://www.ft.com/content/2d7a5359-5de7-42ad-b5ba-955d35d127cd", "https://twitter.com/akritiisharma/status/1577753562318536704", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/exclusive-musk-apollo-no-longer-talks-finance-twitter-deal-source-2022-10-05/", "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/twitter-musk-deal/card/twitter-musk-are-continuing-talks-wednesday-about-closing-deal-2eP0vutQq2aOu7DhrkHn?mod=e2tw", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577428272056389633", "https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1577384725504790534", "https://twitter.com/TwitterIR/status/1577380758192197632", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922105787/tm2227435d1_sc13da.htm", "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922105787/tm2227435d1_ex99-s.htm", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-04/musk-proposes-to-proceed-with-twitter-deal-at-54-20-a-share?", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-proposes-closing-twitter-deal-on-original-terms-11664901454?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1577331947147247617", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/twitter-shares-halted-on-report-that-musk-plans-to-go-through-with-deal-at-54point20-a-share.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1664899841", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/twitter-shares-halted-on-report-that-musk-plans-to-go-through-with-deal-at-54point20-a-share.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1664899841", "https://ground.news/article/09d5ce7d-52e3-4871-a91b-fa6714867e94", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5rAmAtQX6s", "https://www.theverge.com/2022/7/29/23283577/elon-musk-twitter-lawsuit-trial-start-date-delaware", "https://archive.ph/EZg4O", "https://eu.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2014/04/09/chancery-court-issues-unprecedented-arrest-warrant/7514609/).", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/can-elon-musk-defy-court-if-ordered-buy-twitter-2022-07-13/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/hedge-funds-are-betting-elon-musk-will-be-forced-to-buy-twitter?utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/13/tech/twitter-elon-musk-deal-shareholder-vote/index.html", "https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/elon-musk-files-another-notice-cancel-twitter-takeover-citing-whistleblowers-data-privacy-concerns#&_intcmp=hp1r_2,hp1r", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/business/elon-musk-twitter-whistle-blower.html?smid=tw-share", "https://ground.news/article/musk-subpoenas-former-twitter-ceo-and-friend-jack-dorsey_a2ad54", "https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-finish-twitter-buyout-one-condition/", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/judge-orders-oct-17-21-trial-over-twitters-lawsuit-against-musk-2022-07-29/", "https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1552372365140672513", "https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/musk-provide-625-bln-more-equity-fund-twitter-deal-2022-05-25/#:~:text=May%2025%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Elon,O)%20shares%20to%20zero.", "https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/done-deal-why-many-large-transactions-fail-to-cross-the-finish-line", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/musk-seeks-to-block-quick-twitter-trial-over-44-billion-deal?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets", "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-13/twitter-still-wants-musk-s-money", "https://fortune.com/2022/07/12/twitter-elon-musk-legal-battle-delaware-court/", "https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1546995532106969089", "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22084453/twittermuskcomplaint.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/12/twitter-elon-musk-lawsuit/"] | binary | [["2022-04-18", 0.65], ["2022-04-19", 0.301], ["2022-04-21", 0.249], ["2022-04-22", 0.29], ["2022-04-25", 0.327], ["2022-04-26", 0.748], ["2022-04-28", 0.773], ["2022-04-29", 0.773], ["2022-05-01", 0.773], ["2022-05-02", 0.776], ["2022-05-04", 0.777], ["2022-05-06", 0.782], ["2022-05-08", 0.786], ["2022-05-09", 0.787], ["2022-05-11", 0.786], ["2022-05-13", 0.785], ["2022-05-14", 0.736], ["2022-05-16", 0.714], ["2022-05-19", 0.684], ["2022-05-21", 0.68], ["2022-05-23", 0.673], ["2022-05-25", 0.671], ["2022-05-27", 0.673], ["2022-05-29", 0.673], ["2022-05-30", 0.673], ["2022-06-01", 0.672], ["2022-06-04", 0.671], ["2022-06-06", 0.669], ["2022-06-08", 0.659], ["2022-06-10", 0.654], ["2022-06-13", 0.648], ["2022-06-14", 0.641], ["2022-06-17", 0.64], ["2022-06-19", 0.64], ["2022-06-20", 0.64], ["2022-06-22", 0.641], ["2022-06-24", 0.64], ["2022-06-27", 0.64], ["2022-06-29", 0.64], ["2022-06-30", 0.639], ["2022-07-02", 0.639], ["2022-07-04", 0.638], ["2022-07-05", 0.639], ["2022-07-08", 0.635], ["2022-07-09", 0.551], ["2022-07-11", 0.476], ["2022-07-13", 0.463], ["2022-07-16", 0.464], ["2022-07-17", 0.463], ["2022-07-20", 0.462], ["2022-07-22", 0.463], ["2022-07-24", 0.461], ["2022-07-26", 0.455], ["2022-07-29", 0.452], ["2022-07-31", 0.451], ["2022-08-01", 0.451], ["2022-08-03", 0.45], ["2022-08-05", 0.45], ["2022-08-06", 0.45], ["2022-08-08", 0.449], ["2022-08-10", 0.447], ["2022-08-11", 0.444], ["2022-08-14", 0.444], ["2022-08-16", 0.442], ["2022-08-18", 0.442], ["2022-08-19", 0.442], ["2022-08-21", 0.441], ["2022-08-23", 0.441], ["2022-08-25", 0.438], ["2022-08-26", 0.436], ["2022-08-28", 0.436], ["2022-08-30", 0.432], ["2022-08-31", 0.427], ["2022-09-02", 0.427], ["2022-09-04", 0.427], ["2022-09-06", 0.426], ["2022-09-07", 0.425], ["2022-09-09", 0.425], ["2022-09-11", 0.424], ["2022-09-13", 0.425], ["2022-09-15", 0.427], ["2022-09-17", 0.419], ["2022-09-19", 0.417], ["2022-09-20", 0.415], ["2022-09-21", 0.415], ["2022-09-24", 0.415], ["2022-09-26", 0.414], ["2022-09-28", 0.413], ["2022-09-29", 0.412], ["2022-10-02", 0.411], ["2022-10-04", 0.408], ["2022-10-06", 0.557], ["2022-10-09", 0.56], ["2022-10-11", 0.562], ["2022-10-13", 0.566], ["2022-10-16", 0.568], ["2022-10-18", 0.568], ["2022-10-21", 0.57], ["2022-10-23", 0.573], ["2022-10-26", 0.577], ["2022-10-28", 0.611]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10662/ | Elon Musk has bought 9.1% of Twitter shares and made an offer to acquire all of Twitter for $54.20. This is a total value of about $43 billion.
This offer could be rejected. There could be a bidding war if there are other bidders. Elon could continue to buy shares to acheive over 50% ownership. Elon Muskk could walk away and do other things. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve as Yes if, before December 31, 2022, Elon Musk has over 50% of Twitter shares according to public SEC statements | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-04-25 | 2022-04-14 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-21", 0.2], ["2022-04-21", 0.2], ["2022-04-21", 0.15], ["2022-04-21", 0.15], ["2022-04-21", 0.28], ["2022-04-21", 0.3], ["2022-04-21", 0.3], ["2022-04-21", 0.293], ["2022-04-21", 0.293], ["2022-04-21", 0.283], ["2022-04-21", 0.3], ["2022-04-21", 0.296], ["2022-04-21", 0.296], ["2022-04-22", 0.318], ["2022-04-22", 0.298], ["2022-04-22", 0.3], ["2022-04-22", 0.296], ["2022-04-22", 0.296], ["2022-04-22", 0.284], ["2022-04-22", 0.285], ["2022-04-22", 0.285], ["2022-04-22", 0.267], ["2022-04-22", 0.266], ["2022-04-22", 0.272], ["2022-04-22", 0.272], ["2022-04-22", 0.259], ["2022-04-22", 0.256], ["2022-04-22", 0.248], ["2022-04-22", 0.246], ["2022-04-22", 0.252], ["2022-04-22", 0.256], ["2022-04-22", 0.256], ["2022-04-22", 0.254], ["2022-04-22", 0.254], ["2022-04-22", 0.248], ["2022-04-22", 0.256], ["2022-04-22", 0.256], ["2022-04-22", 0.273], ["2022-04-22", 0.272], ["2022-04-22", 0.271], ["2022-04-23", 0.271], ["2022-04-23", 0.269], ["2022-04-23", 0.268], ["2022-04-23", 0.264], ["2022-04-23", 0.264], ["2022-04-23", 0.267], ["2022-04-23", 0.27], ["2022-04-23", 0.271], ["2022-04-23", 0.271], ["2022-04-24", 0.274], ["2022-04-24", 0.276], ["2022-04-24", 0.277], ["2022-04-24", 0.279], ["2022-04-24", 0.286], ["2022-04-24", 0.286], ["2022-04-24", 0.289], ["2022-04-25", 0.289], ["2022-04-25", 0.289], ["2022-04-25", 0.286], ["2022-04-25", 0.286], ["2022-04-25", 0.286], ["2022-04-25", 0.286], ["2022-04-25", 0.292], ["2022-04-25", 0.297], ["2022-04-25", 0.298], ["2022-04-25", 0.301], ["2022-04-25", 0.302], ["2022-04-25", 0.302], ["2022-04-25", 0.303], ["2022-04-25", 0.318], ["2022-04-25", 0.318], ["2022-04-25", 0.336], ["2022-04-25", 0.349], ["2022-04-25", 0.352], ["2022-04-25", 0.372], ["2022-04-25", 0.378], ["2022-04-25", 0.405], ["2022-04-25", 0.409], ["2022-04-25", 0.414], ["2022-04-25", 0.419], ["2022-04-25", 0.427], ["2022-04-25", 0.434], ["2022-04-25", 0.451], ["2022-04-25", 0.452], ["2022-04-25", 0.466], ["2022-04-25", 0.467], ["2022-04-25", 0.475], ["2022-04-25", 0.488], ["2022-04-25", 0.489], ["2022-04-25", 0.506], ["2022-04-25", 0.56], ["2022-04-25", 0.577], ["2022-04-25", 0.601], ["2022-04-25", 0.622], ["2022-04-25", 0.627], ["2022-04-25", 0.647], ["2022-04-25", 0.651], ["2022-04-25", 0.662], ["2022-04-25", 0.666], ["2022-04-25", 0.681], ["2022-04-25", 0.685]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10663/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On April 14, 2022, Elon Musk made an all-cash bid to take Twitter, Inc., private for $54.20 a share, citing a societal imperative for free speech. (SEC filing) (letter). Twitter has confirmed receipt of the letter and says its Board of Directors is considering the proposal. (press release). The Wall Street Journal reports that Musk “has heard from outside investors who may be interested in teaming up for his bid.”
By December 31 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?
This question resolves as positive immediately based on an SEC filing by Twitter, Inc., stating that the company and Elon Musk and/or his nominated entities have reached a definitive agreement that, if approved by shareholders and executed, would result in a going private transaction in which Musk and/or any of his nominated entities would be an acquiring party. Otherwise if no such offer has been accepted by December 31, 2022, this resolves as negative. | true | 2022-10-06 | By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-07-05 | 2022-04-15 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-19", 0.54], ["2022-04-20", 0.53], ["2022-04-21", 0.478], ["2022-04-21", 0.478], ["2022-04-21", 0.476], ["2022-04-22", 0.48], ["2022-04-23", 0.481], ["2022-04-24", 0.484], ["2022-04-24", 0.495], ["2022-04-25", 0.495], ["2022-04-26", 0.513], ["2022-04-26", 0.513], ["2022-04-30", 0.512], ["2022-05-05", 0.512], ["2022-05-06", 0.519], ["2022-05-09", 0.509], ["2022-05-09", 0.509], ["2022-05-10", 0.463], ["2022-05-10", 0.413], ["2022-05-11", 0.407], ["2022-05-11", 0.428], ["2022-05-11", 0.427], ["2022-05-12", 0.425], ["2022-05-13", 0.422], ["2022-05-13", 0.419], ["2022-05-16", 0.418], ["2022-05-17", 0.417], ["2022-05-18", 0.415], ["2022-05-19", 0.413], ["2022-05-20", 0.422], ["2022-05-21", 0.421], ["2022-05-21", 0.42], ["2022-05-22", 0.42], ["2022-05-23", 0.418], ["2022-05-24", 0.418], ["2022-05-25", 0.418], ["2022-05-25", 0.41], ["2022-05-26", 0.41], ["2022-05-26", 0.406], ["2022-05-27", 0.392], ["2022-05-28", 0.383], ["2022-05-28", 0.378], ["2022-05-29", 0.378], ["2022-05-30", 0.377], ["2022-05-31", 0.377], ["2022-05-31", 0.377], ["2022-06-01", 0.376], ["2022-06-01", 0.374], ["2022-06-01", 0.373], ["2022-06-02", 0.373], ["2022-06-02", 0.366], ["2022-06-03", 0.359], ["2022-06-04", 0.359], ["2022-06-04", 0.358], ["2022-06-04", 0.353], ["2022-06-05", 0.351], ["2022-06-06", 0.351], ["2022-06-06", 0.35], ["2022-06-07", 0.348], ["2022-06-07", 0.348], ["2022-06-08", 0.348], ["2022-06-08", 0.348], ["2022-06-10", 0.335], ["2022-06-10", 0.318], ["2022-06-10", 0.307], ["2022-06-11", 0.303], ["2022-06-12", 0.303], ["2022-06-12", 0.302], ["2022-06-12", 0.304], ["2022-06-14", 0.304], ["2022-06-14", 0.302], ["2022-06-15", 0.302], ["2022-06-17", 0.303], ["2022-06-17", 0.3], ["2022-06-19", 0.302], ["2022-06-19", 0.297], ["2022-06-20", 0.297], ["2022-06-21", 0.293], ["2022-06-23", 0.293], ["2022-06-24", 0.283], ["2022-06-25", 0.285], ["2022-06-25", 0.285], ["2022-06-26", 0.28], ["2022-06-27", 0.28], ["2022-06-27", 0.279], ["2022-06-27", 0.277], ["2022-06-28", 0.277], ["2022-06-28", 0.27], ["2022-06-29", 0.266], ["2022-06-30", 0.265], ["2022-06-30", 0.264], ["2022-06-30", 0.264], ["2022-07-01", 0.265], ["2022-07-01", 0.254], ["2022-07-02", 0.244], ["2022-07-02", 0.224], ["2022-07-03", 0.224], ["2022-07-03", 0.213], ["2022-07-04", 0.211], ["2022-07-04", 0.211], ["2022-07-05", 0.155]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10671/ | Omicron XE is a recombination of the SARS-Cov-2 Omicron strains BA.1 and BA.2. It has been detected first in the UK on January 19, 2022, then in Brazil, Australia, Thailand, India, and Israel. 1,125 cases of Omicron XE have been identified in the UK, as of April 5, 2022.
On March 25, 2022, Susan Hopkins of the UK Health Security Agency stated:
This particular recombinant, XE, has shown a variable growth rate and we cannot yet confirm whether it has a true growth advantage. So far there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about transmissibility, severity or vaccine effectiveness. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as Yes if, before June 19, 2022, the Omicron XE SARS-CoV-2 variant makes up more than 50% of COVID-19 cases in the US, as estimated by the CDC COVID variant Nowcast. The two most recent weeks reported in the Nowcast are based on preliminary data and the model's forecast; to resolve this question as Yes, qualifying data must be at least 2 weeks old | true | 2022-07-05 | Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-04-19 | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63458380.amp"] | binary | [["2022-06-13", 0.33], ["2022-06-14", 0.271], ["2022-06-15", 0.245], ["2022-06-15", 0.233], ["2022-06-16", 0.212], ["2022-06-16", 0.207], ["2022-06-17", 0.197], ["2022-06-18", 0.197], ["2022-06-18", 0.195], ["2022-06-19", 0.194], ["2022-06-20", 0.188], ["2022-06-21", 0.176], ["2022-06-22", 0.173], ["2022-06-23", 0.173], ["2022-06-24", 0.161], ["2022-06-25", 0.158], ["2022-06-26", 0.15], ["2022-06-26", 0.146], ["2022-06-27", 0.141], ["2022-06-28", 0.141], ["2022-06-29", 0.139], ["2022-07-05", 0.139], ["2022-07-08", 0.139], ["2022-07-09", 0.119], ["2022-07-10", 0.111], ["2022-07-12", 0.111], ["2022-07-13", 0.112], ["2022-07-13", 0.11], ["2022-07-15", 0.109], ["2022-07-15", 0.107], ["2022-07-18", 0.108], ["2022-07-19", 0.108], ["2022-07-20", 0.11], ["2022-07-22", 0.107], ["2022-07-26", 0.105], ["2022-07-27", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.1], ["2022-08-05", 0.1], ["2022-08-18", 0.1], ["2022-08-19", 0.1], ["2022-08-23", 0.096], ["2022-08-31", 0.096], ["2022-09-03", 0.093], ["2022-09-13", 0.093], ["2022-09-13", 0.094], ["2022-09-14", 0.094], ["2022-09-15", 0.094], ["2022-09-18", 0.094], ["2022-09-18", 0.094], ["2022-09-21", 0.094], ["2022-09-28", 0.094], ["2022-09-28", 0.094], ["2022-10-03", 0.093], ["2022-10-03", 0.091], ["2022-10-04", 0.089], ["2022-10-05", 0.087], ["2022-10-05", 0.082], ["2022-10-08", 0.079], ["2022-10-09", 0.079], ["2022-10-16", 0.078], ["2022-10-16", 0.078], ["2022-10-24", 0.078], ["2022-10-25", 0.076], ["2022-10-26", 0.074], ["2022-10-26", 0.073], ["2022-10-28", 0.073], ["2022-10-29", 0.042], ["2022-10-29", 0.038], ["2022-10-30", 0.038], ["2022-10-31", 0.038], ["2022-11-01", 0.035], ["2022-11-02", 0.033], ["2022-11-02", 0.033], ["2022-11-03", 0.032], ["2022-11-08", 0.032], ["2022-11-08", 0.032], ["2022-11-12", 0.032], ["2022-11-12", 0.032], ["2022-11-14", 0.031], ["2022-11-14", 0.031], ["2022-11-26", 0.031], ["2022-11-28", 0.028], ["2022-11-28", 0.027], ["2022-12-02", 0.027], ["2022-12-04", 0.027], ["2022-12-05", 0.027], ["2022-12-08", 0.027], ["2022-12-11", 0.027], ["2022-12-12", 0.026], ["2022-12-14", 0.026], ["2022-12-16", 0.026], ["2022-12-16", 0.026], ["2022-12-19", 0.026], ["2022-12-21", 0.026], ["2022-12-22", 0.026], ["2022-12-24", 0.026], ["2022-12-27", 0.025], ["2022-12-27", 0.024], ["2022-12-29", 0.024], ["2022-12-30", 0.024], ["2022-12-31", 0.022]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10733/ | Related question on Metaculus:
Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by the end of 2022?
Elon Musk has offered $54.20 to acquire all of Twitter's outstanding shares and take the company private. The board has responded by adopting a poison pill clause that is triggered when anyone acquires more than 15 percent stake. The board is also, presumably, entertaining competing offers to acquire the company and could at any time announce that a deal has been reached. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve as Yes if the Twitter board publicly announces it has accepted a bid from an acquiring party which does not include any personal financing from Elon Musk before January 1, 2023. Resolution will be determined based on credible media sources. Otherwise, the question will resolve as No.
If an acquiring party including personal funding from Elon Musk acquires Twitter in 2022, but Twitter is later sold in 2022 to an acquiring party which does not include any personal funding from Elon Musk, this would still resolve as Yes | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-04-19 | ["https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10984135/Putin-recruiting-prisoners-cannon-fodder-fight-Russia-Ukraine-amid-troop-shortages.html"] | binary | [["2022-04-20", 0.55], ["2022-04-22", 0.353], ["2022-04-25", 0.32], ["2022-04-28", 0.296], ["2022-05-01", 0.293], ["2022-05-03", 0.291], ["2022-05-06", 0.29], ["2022-05-08", 0.293], ["2022-05-11", 0.297], ["2022-05-14", 0.292], ["2022-05-16", 0.295], ["2022-05-19", 0.29], ["2022-05-20", 0.291], ["2022-05-23", 0.288], ["2022-05-25", 0.289], ["2022-05-28", 0.288], ["2022-05-30", 0.287], ["2022-06-01", 0.267], ["2022-06-04", 0.247], ["2022-06-06", 0.245], ["2022-06-08", 0.243], ["2022-06-12", 0.24], ["2022-06-14", 0.23], ["2022-06-17", 0.228], ["2022-06-19", 0.225], ["2022-06-22", 0.224], ["2022-06-25", 0.222], ["2022-06-26", 0.222], ["2022-06-29", 0.219], ["2022-07-02", 0.215], ["2022-07-05", 0.215], ["2022-07-07", 0.211], ["2022-07-11", 0.206], ["2022-07-13", 0.206], ["2022-07-15", 0.205], ["2022-07-17", 0.205], ["2022-07-20", 0.204], ["2022-07-22", 0.201], ["2022-07-24", 0.2], ["2022-07-26", 0.2], ["2022-07-28", 0.199], ["2022-07-31", 0.195], ["2022-08-02", 0.183], ["2022-08-05", 0.18], ["2022-08-07", 0.177], ["2022-08-09", 0.174], ["2022-08-11", 0.172], ["2022-08-13", 0.17], ["2022-08-16", 0.17], ["2022-08-18", 0.169], ["2022-08-20", 0.168], ["2022-08-23", 0.171], ["2022-08-26", 0.168], ["2022-08-30", 0.169], ["2022-09-02", 0.169], ["2022-09-04", 0.166], ["2022-09-07", 0.16], ["2022-09-09", 0.159], ["2022-09-11", 0.164], ["2022-09-13", 0.172], ["2022-09-16", 0.174], ["2022-09-19", 0.176], ["2022-09-22", 0.177], ["2022-09-24", 0.18], ["2022-09-27", 0.179], ["2022-09-30", 0.178], ["2022-10-02", 0.176], ["2022-10-05", 0.177], ["2022-10-07", 0.177], ["2022-10-09", 0.174], ["2022-10-12", 0.171], ["2022-10-14", 0.17], ["2022-10-16", 0.169], ["2022-10-18", 0.169], ["2022-10-20", 0.167], ["2022-10-22", 0.167], ["2022-10-25", 0.167], ["2022-10-28", 0.166], ["2022-10-30", 0.164], ["2022-11-02", 0.163], ["2022-11-04", 0.162], ["2022-11-07", 0.161], ["2022-11-10", 0.159], ["2022-11-13", 0.156], ["2022-11-16", 0.156], ["2022-11-18", 0.15], ["2022-11-21", 0.149], ["2022-11-23", 0.148], ["2022-11-26", 0.147], ["2022-11-28", 0.144], ["2022-12-01", 0.144], ["2022-12-03", 0.143], ["2022-12-06", 0.141], ["2022-12-10", 0.14], ["2022-12-13", 0.136], ["2022-12-16", 0.134], ["2022-12-19", 0.133], ["2022-12-22", 0.132], ["2022-12-25", 0.13], ["2022-12-27", 0.129], ["2022-12-31", 0.1]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10736/ | The city of Mariupol has been under siege by Russian armed forces from February 24, 2022 through April 2022.
The Guardian reported on March 22:
"Local authorities say 80% of the city’s infrastructure has been destroyed, some of it beyond repair. The city has been without water, electricity and heating, and it is impossible to count the number of deaths. This week, Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to surrender Mariupol." | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Maripol's city area is under de facto Ukrainian military and political control on January 1, 2023.
Metaculus Admins will consider all credible media reports and international government intelligence statements to determine resolution | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-04-29 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-23 | 2022-04-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-21", 0.105], ["2022-04-22", 0.153], ["2022-04-22", 0.122], ["2022-04-22", 0.104], ["2022-04-22", 0.092], ["2022-04-22", 0.093], ["2022-04-23", 0.093], ["2022-04-23", 0.13], ["2022-04-23", 0.131], ["2022-04-23", 0.131], ["2022-04-23", 0.113], ["2022-04-24", 0.107], ["2022-04-25", 0.107], ["2022-04-25", 0.122], ["2022-04-27", 0.122], ["2022-04-27", 0.116], ["2022-04-27", 0.111], ["2022-04-27", 0.112], ["2022-04-28", 0.129], ["2022-04-28", 0.113], ["2022-04-28", 0.113], ["2022-04-29", 0.114]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10754/ | Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.
As of April 6th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1,000 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-04-29 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of April 6th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 750 at any time between April 20, 2022 to June 30, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-04-29 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-06 | 2022-04-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-20", 0.05], ["2022-04-21", 0.05], ["2022-04-21", 0.153], ["2022-04-21", 0.205], ["2022-04-22", 0.244], ["2022-04-22", 0.218], ["2022-04-22", 0.224], ["2022-04-22", 0.224], ["2022-04-22", 0.226], ["2022-04-23", 0.227], ["2022-04-23", 0.227], ["2022-04-23", 0.214], ["2022-04-23", 0.234], ["2022-04-23", 0.225], ["2022-04-23", 0.219], ["2022-04-23", 0.228], ["2022-04-23", 0.228], ["2022-04-23", 0.219], ["2022-04-23", 0.218], ["2022-04-25", 0.209], ["2022-04-25", 0.207], ["2022-04-25", 0.207], ["2022-04-25", 0.218], ["2022-04-26", 0.211], ["2022-04-26", 0.211], ["2022-04-26", 0.208], ["2022-04-27", 0.216], ["2022-04-28", 0.209], ["2022-04-28", 0.209], ["2022-04-28", 0.206], ["2022-04-28", 0.206], ["2022-04-28", 0.201], ["2022-04-28", 0.201], ["2022-04-28", 0.199], ["2022-04-28", 0.185], ["2022-04-28", 0.179], ["2022-04-28", 0.179], ["2022-04-29", 0.18], ["2022-04-29", 0.178]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10757/ | Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have declined following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.
As of April 6th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 245. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1,500 at any time between April 20, 2022 to June 30, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-04-29 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-30 | 2022-04-23 | ["https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06003-w.epdf?sharing_token=qLP2YHnEUJWQUKZkpIGu8tRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PAxnmygEfgoeCFGpn8fiBtAOMWycojPlA-0joqPyoF3exgE3lwOJvod010W-jw8UPd-FgQgIz0PwekC1mDcwhianwxJnR07BLWoyUOjovfdY3PYw5DOnlwjVku7rdKH7g%3D", "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05949-1", "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06003-w.epdf?sharing_token=qLP2YHnEUJWQUKZkpIGu8tRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PAxnmygEfgoeCFGpn8fiBtAOMWycojPlA-0joqPyoF3exgE3lwOJvod010W-jw8UPd-FgQgIz0PwekC1mDcwhianwxJnR07BLWoyUOjovfdY3PYw5DOnlwjVku7rdKH7g%3D", "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.19.22277425v1"] | binary | [["2022-04-26", 0.3], ["2022-04-27", 0.565], ["2022-04-28", 0.612], ["2022-04-28", 0.668], ["2022-04-29", 0.668], ["2022-04-30", 0.622], ["2022-05-01", 0.62], ["2022-05-02", 0.623], ["2022-05-02", 0.626], ["2022-05-02", 0.624], ["2022-05-04", 0.636], ["2022-05-05", 0.633], ["2022-05-06", 0.633], ["2022-05-06", 0.644], ["2022-05-09", 0.644], ["2022-05-11", 0.622], ["2022-05-11", 0.595], ["2022-05-12", 0.594], ["2022-05-12", 0.593], ["2022-05-13", 0.589], ["2022-05-13", 0.577], ["2022-05-16", 0.572], ["2022-05-23", 0.572], ["2022-06-07", 0.573], ["2022-06-07", 0.567], ["2022-06-11", 0.568], ["2022-06-11", 0.57], ["2022-06-12", 0.578], ["2022-06-12", 0.579], ["2022-06-13", 0.579], ["2022-06-14", 0.579], ["2022-06-21", 0.579], ["2022-06-28", 0.579], ["2022-07-05", 0.579], ["2022-07-12", 0.579], ["2022-07-20", 0.579], ["2022-07-23", 0.579], ["2022-07-25", 0.589], ["2022-07-26", 0.616], ["2022-07-26", 0.617], ["2022-07-27", 0.633], ["2022-07-28", 0.637], ["2022-08-05", 0.637], ["2022-08-18", 0.637], ["2022-08-31", 0.637], ["2022-09-07", 0.642], ["2022-10-09", 0.642], ["2022-10-16", 0.64], ["2022-10-17", 0.639], ["2022-12-19", 0.642], ["2022-12-22", 0.642], ["2022-12-22", 0.646], ["2022-12-31", 0.646], ["2023-01-03", 0.647], ["2023-01-05", 0.651], ["2023-01-05", 0.642], ["2023-01-09", 0.638], ["2023-01-10", 0.638], ["2023-01-11", 0.637], ["2023-01-16", 0.637], ["2023-01-16", 0.636], ["2023-01-16", 0.635], ["2023-01-22", 0.634], ["2023-01-23", 0.633], ["2023-02-05", 0.632], ["2023-02-10", 0.632], ["2023-02-14", 0.634], ["2023-02-15", 0.633], ["2023-02-20", 0.632], ["2023-02-21", 0.631], ["2023-02-21", 0.631], ["2023-02-22", 0.631], ["2023-02-27", 0.628], ["2023-02-28", 0.628], ["2023-02-28", 0.628], ["2023-03-01", 0.623], ["2023-03-02", 0.619], ["2023-03-02", 0.605], ["2023-03-05", 0.608], ["2023-03-05", 0.608], ["2023-03-06", 0.607], ["2023-03-07", 0.608], ["2023-03-08", 0.608], ["2023-03-10", 0.613], ["2023-03-10", 0.613], ["2023-03-13", 0.599], ["2023-03-13", 0.599], ["2023-03-15", 0.599], ["2023-03-16", 0.599], ["2023-03-22", 0.598], ["2023-03-23", 0.598], ["2023-03-23", 0.596], ["2023-03-24", 0.596], ["2023-03-25", 0.591], ["2023-03-25", 0.591], ["2023-03-26", 0.589], ["2023-03-27", 0.591], ["2023-03-28", 0.589], ["2023-03-28", 0.591], ["2023-03-29", 0.591], ["2023-03-29", 0.579]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10787/ | In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe hepatitis in young children in which the cause is of unknown origin.
In an outbreak report on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least 169 cases of hepatitis of unknown origin in children. The age range of cases is 1 month to 16 years old. Seventeen of the children have undergone liver transplants and at least one has died. None of the viruses that cause acute viral hepatitis (hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D and E) have been detected in any of the 169 cases.
The United Kingdom has had the greatest number of reported cases so far, with 108 cases as of 21 April according to the UK Health Security Agency. 77% of cases have tested positive for adenovirus. None of the confirmed cases is known to have received a COVID vaccine.
In the United States, the state of Alabama was the first to report cases. All nine of the reported cases have tested positive for adenovirus according to the U.S. CDC. Five of these were sequenced, and adenovirus type 41 infection was identified in all five. Adenovirus type 41 is known to commonly cause pediatric acute gastroenteritis, but is not known to be a cause of hepatitis in otherwise healthy children.
Currently the leading hypothesis for the causative agent involves adenovirus, with either an already-circulating variant severely impacting immunologically naive young children or there being a new variant with a more severe clinical profile. The former may be the result of less social mixing during the COVID pandemic. However, public health officials have emphasized that other hypotheses have not been ruled out. Other hypotheses include COVID infection or an unidentified toxin. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve on the basis of research findings/government reports. The systematic review (either peer-reviewed or a pre-print deemed credible by Metaculus) or statement by the WHO, US CDC, UK HSA, or EU ECDC that is most recent as of 1 April 2023 and which conclusively identifies the causative agent will be considered. If the causative agent is adenovirus infection, then this resolves positive.
If as of 1 April 2023 there is no systematic review or statement by the WHO, US CDC, UK HSA, or EU ECDC that identifies the causative agent, then Metaculus will conduct a review of all relevant published papers available as of 1 April 2023 that can be found via Google Scholar and that attempt to identify the causative agent. If at least 85% of these published papers claim a statistically significant and/or clinically meaningful association between severe pediatric hepatitis and infection with adenovirus, then this will resolve positive.
An adenovirus need not be the only cause of severe pediatric hepatitis, it just needs to be a main cause. e.g.: if cases of severe pediatric hepatitis are conclusively linked to some interaction between COVID and adenovirus 41, but not to either one of these on their own, then this will resolve positive.
Also see this question on whether pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin will be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination | true | 2023-03-31 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-09-16 | 2022-04-23 | ["https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/", "https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2022/statewide_primary/races/6.html", "https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/rhode-island/democratic-primaries/us-house-district-2", "https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2022/statewide_primary/races/6.html", "https://twitter.com/DavidSegalRI/status/1569860033323712512", "https://twitter.com/DavidSegalRI/status/1569860033323712512", "https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2022/statewide_primary/races/6.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/13/us/elections/results-rhode-island-us-house-district-2.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/13/us/elections-new-hampshire-primary", "https://www.abc6.com/2022-ri-primary-results/", "https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1569844803688595456)", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-races-to-watch-in-new-hampshire-and-rhode-island/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/", "https://twitter.com/DavidSegalRI/status/1567626453457551360?t=uL6e6txzOGt836PNhcdDmQ&s=19", "https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1560085374936006656"] | binary | [["2022-04-28", 0.5], ["2022-04-29", 0.5], ["2022-04-30", 0.5], ["2022-05-03", 0.498], ["2022-05-06", 0.49], ["2022-05-06", 0.488], ["2022-05-07", 0.487], ["2022-06-03", 0.489], ["2022-06-04", 0.456], ["2022-06-06", 0.456], ["2022-06-07", 0.471], ["2022-06-07", 0.474], ["2022-06-07", 0.475], ["2022-06-11", 0.475], ["2022-06-11", 0.475], ["2022-06-12", 0.454], ["2022-06-12", 0.464], ["2022-06-14", 0.464], ["2022-06-14", 0.464], ["2022-06-14", 0.463], ["2022-06-17", 0.462], ["2022-06-17", 0.461], ["2022-06-21", 0.461], ["2022-06-24", 0.459], ["2022-06-28", 0.459], ["2022-07-01", 0.459], ["2022-07-04", 0.449], ["2022-07-04", 0.449], ["2022-07-05", 0.451], ["2022-07-06", 0.451], ["2022-07-08", 0.451], ["2022-07-08", 0.442], ["2022-07-10", 0.424], ["2022-07-10", 0.424], ["2022-07-12", 0.437], ["2022-07-15", 0.437], ["2022-07-16", 0.439], ["2022-07-16", 0.426], ["2022-07-17", 0.424], ["2022-07-18", 0.427], ["2022-07-19", 0.426], ["2022-07-20", 0.425], ["2022-07-21", 0.425], ["2022-07-21", 0.429], ["2022-07-25", 0.43], ["2022-07-26", 0.439], ["2022-07-27", 0.439], ["2022-07-27", 0.439], ["2022-07-31", 0.43], ["2022-07-31", 0.426], ["2022-08-02", 0.426], ["2022-08-04", 0.43], ["2022-08-05", 0.431], ["2022-08-05", 0.431], ["2022-08-07", 0.43], ["2022-08-10", 0.424], ["2022-08-11", 0.423], ["2022-08-12", 0.423], ["2022-08-13", 0.382], ["2022-08-13", 0.38], ["2022-08-13", 0.38], ["2022-08-14", 0.373], ["2022-08-14", 0.367], ["2022-08-15", 0.365], ["2022-08-16", 0.366], ["2022-08-16", 0.366], ["2022-08-17", 0.386], ["2022-08-18", 0.384], ["2022-08-18", 0.384], ["2022-08-18", 0.362], ["2022-08-18", 0.351], ["2022-08-21", 0.346], ["2022-08-22", 0.318], ["2022-08-23", 0.307], ["2022-08-23", 0.301], ["2022-08-23", 0.301], ["2022-08-24", 0.283], ["2022-08-24", 0.285], ["2022-08-25", 0.278], ["2022-08-27", 0.274], ["2022-08-29", 0.273], ["2022-08-31", 0.275], ["2022-08-31", 0.275], ["2022-08-31", 0.257], ["2022-09-01", 0.239], ["2022-09-01", 0.236], ["2022-09-02", 0.232], ["2022-09-02", 0.232], ["2022-09-04", 0.23], ["2022-09-05", 0.217], ["2022-09-05", 0.188], ["2022-09-06", 0.191], ["2022-09-06", 0.188], ["2022-09-07", 0.188], ["2022-09-07", 0.188], ["2022-09-08", 0.188], ["2022-09-08", 0.179], ["2022-09-09", 0.182], ["2022-09-11", 0.182], ["2022-09-12", 0.158], ["2022-09-13", 0.157]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10788/ | David Segal is running as a Democrat for Congress in Rhode Island's 2nd District. The primary will take place on 13 September 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as "Yes" if David Segal is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district according to a consensus of credible media reports. If there are conflicting race calls, this question will resolve upon results by the Rhode Island Secretary of State | true | 2022-09-13 | Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-28 | 2022-04-24 | ["https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1619348838677897217?t=2I55KZKAK9zuLYsQNSrbog&s=19", "https://twitter.com/SzymanskiSzymek/status/1619347002353123330?t=feio1DW_xBDlpQpVk6-cQg&s=19", "https://twitter.com/CNNPrima/status/1619336182814617600?t=cvaD_qcFOmbguPd-mtNAWQ&s=19", "https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1619339777383202818?t=cvaD_qcFOmbguPd-mtNAWQ&s=19", "https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1619343954855559170?t=SqhG2UwREWxU3EaQ3wf5qw&s=19", "https://twitter.com/general_pavel/status/1619341604040351747?t=VF2Z906CIeU4djrOaQACJA&s=19", "https://twitter.com/guntiiiii/status/1619331025028648960?t=wgzzDZKqHbGltaLUOE6f2g&s=19", "https://twitter.com/DzamilaStehlik/status/1619330139913076737?t=1Cqg-aF91Qzdh-TVGAs-5g&s=19", "https://www.voanews.com/a/pavel-leads-ahead-of-czech-vote-opponent-plays-on-war-fears-/6929863.html", "https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/domaci/3559642-zive-prezidentsky-duel-ceske-televize-z-narodniho-muzea", "https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1615761620294041612", "https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1615761620294041612", "https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1614293400106287104?t=ewsuV6nP0k4_biVdKjbh3g&s=19", "https://twitter.com/NoChaosNoChill/status/1613454341284798464", "https://www.idnes.cz/volby/ipsos-predvolebni-pruzkum-prezidentske-volby-kandidati-babis-nerudova-pavel.A230109_114912_volby_klf", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/czech-ex-premier-acquitted-in-fraud-case-before-presidential-run?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Czech_presidential_election#Opinion_polls_for_the_second_round", "https://www.ifortuna.cz/sazeni/prezidentske-volby-cr-2023", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Czech_presidential_election,", "https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/babis-oznamil-ze-se-rozhodl-kandidovat-na-prezidenta/2278662", "https://denikn.cz/988093/trinact-prezidentskych-duelu-babis-ma-sanci-jen-za-jedine-konstelace-schillerova-je-na-tom-jeste-hur/", "https://english.radio.cz/poll-retired-army-general-pavel-would-win-first-round-presidential-election-8764120"] | binary | [["2022-05-27", 0.5], ["2022-05-28", 0.5], ["2022-05-29", 0.6], ["2022-05-30", 0.6], ["2022-05-31", 0.66], ["2022-06-01", 0.598], ["2022-06-02", 0.582], ["2022-06-05", 0.582], ["2022-06-07", 0.592], ["2022-06-07", 0.593], ["2022-06-12", 0.594], ["2022-06-12", 0.594], ["2022-06-14", 0.594], ["2022-06-21", 0.594], ["2022-06-23", 0.588], ["2022-06-23", 0.588], ["2022-06-28", 0.587], ["2022-07-01", 0.587], ["2022-07-01", 0.587], ["2022-07-04", 0.587], ["2022-07-05", 0.582], ["2022-07-12", 0.582], ["2022-07-20", 0.582], ["2022-07-23", 0.583], ["2022-07-27", 0.583], ["2022-08-05", 0.583], ["2022-08-18", 0.583], ["2022-08-31", 0.583], ["2022-09-07", 0.563], ["2022-09-19", 0.56], ["2022-09-20", 0.545], ["2022-09-30", 0.542], ["2022-10-02", 0.533], ["2022-10-03", 0.533], ["2022-10-04", 0.532], ["2022-10-07", 0.519], ["2022-10-08", 0.49], ["2022-10-08", 0.487], ["2022-10-10", 0.473], ["2022-10-11", 0.448], ["2022-10-12", 0.438], ["2022-10-13", 0.426], ["2022-10-14", 0.417], ["2022-10-15", 0.415], ["2022-10-15", 0.405], ["2022-10-16", 0.406], ["2022-10-17", 0.403], ["2022-10-20", 0.403], ["2022-10-20", 0.361], ["2022-10-22", 0.341], ["2022-10-25", 0.341], ["2022-10-26", 0.34], ["2022-10-27", 0.354], ["2022-10-29", 0.36], ["2022-10-30", 0.361], ["2022-10-31", 0.362], ["2022-11-01", 0.372], ["2022-11-02", 0.374], ["2022-11-03", 0.382], ["2022-11-09", 0.382], ["2022-11-10", 0.383], ["2022-11-11", 0.382], ["2022-11-27", 0.385], ["2022-11-28", 0.374], ["2022-12-01", 0.373], ["2022-12-02", 0.373], ["2022-12-02", 0.374], ["2022-12-16", 0.372], ["2022-12-16", 0.374], ["2022-12-19", 0.371], ["2022-12-22", 0.371], ["2022-12-22", 0.369], ["2022-12-29", 0.361], ["2022-12-30", 0.349], ["2023-01-02", 0.349], ["2023-01-04", 0.339], ["2023-01-05", 0.299], ["2023-01-06", 0.287], ["2023-01-07", 0.271], ["2023-01-08", 0.267], ["2023-01-09", 0.265], ["2023-01-10", 0.268], ["2023-01-11", 0.268], ["2023-01-12", 0.27], ["2023-01-13", 0.27], ["2023-01-14", 0.266], ["2023-01-15", 0.251], ["2023-01-15", 0.235], ["2023-01-16", 0.222], ["2023-01-18", 0.218], ["2023-01-18", 0.215], ["2023-01-19", 0.214], ["2023-01-20", 0.212], ["2023-01-21", 0.207], ["2023-01-22", 0.198], ["2023-01-23", 0.19], ["2023-01-24", 0.185], ["2023-01-25", 0.183], ["2023-01-27", 0.18], ["2023-01-27", 0.18], ["2023-01-28", 0.174]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10789/ | Presidential elections will be held in the Czech Republic no later than January 2023. The incumbent president Miloš Zeman is not eligible to run for another term, and the election will most likely be direct. 1 The date of the election will be announced by the President of the Senate no later than 90 days before the election. 2
Andrej Babiš is a Czech politician and businessman who served as the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic from 2017 to 2021. He previously served as the Minister of Finance and deputy Prime Minister from 2014 to 2017 in Bohuslav Sobotka's Cabinet. He has been founding leader of the party ANO 2011 (ANO) since 2012. Babiš lost his re-election bid to premiership in the 2021 election and with no path to majority in the Chamber of Deputies he conceded to Petr Fiala, who succeeded Babiš as Prime Minister on 17 December 2021. 3 Babiš is currently leading opinion polls on the election for the Czech presidency. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes if at least three major media sources announce the elections are concluded and Andrej Babiš is a victor. In case of ambiguity between the media sources, the internet pages of the Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic shall be used. If no president is elected by March 8 2023, the question resolves ambiguously | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-04-24 | ["https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/investigation/hepatitis-unknown-cause/overview-what-to-know.html", "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hepatitis-liver-inflammation-cases-in-children-latest-updates", "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON400", "https://www.science.org/content/article/mystery-hepatitis-cases-in-kids-linked-to-unexpected-viral-suspect"] | binary | [["2022-04-26", 0.01], ["2022-04-27", 0.109], ["2022-04-28", 0.085], ["2022-04-29", 0.075], ["2022-05-01", 0.077], ["2022-05-02", 0.077], ["2022-05-02", 0.079], ["2022-05-04", 0.08], ["2022-05-05", 0.077], ["2022-05-06", 0.079], ["2022-05-11", 0.078], ["2022-05-11", 0.107], ["2022-05-13", 0.107], ["2022-05-14", 0.11], ["2022-05-17", 0.116], ["2022-06-07", 0.114], ["2022-06-08", 0.109], ["2022-06-11", 0.11], ["2022-06-12", 0.11], ["2022-06-14", 0.11], ["2022-06-21", 0.11], ["2022-06-27", 0.11], ["2022-06-28", 0.109], ["2022-07-05", 0.109], ["2022-07-09", 0.107], ["2022-07-10", 0.107], ["2022-07-12", 0.109], ["2022-07-15", 0.108], ["2022-07-20", 0.108], ["2022-07-23", 0.106], ["2022-07-25", 0.104], ["2022-07-27", 0.098], ["2022-07-27", 0.098], ["2022-07-31", 0.098], ["2022-08-01", 0.093], ["2022-08-03", 0.079], ["2022-08-03", 0.079], ["2022-08-05", 0.077], ["2022-08-06", 0.076], ["2022-08-18", 0.076], ["2022-08-29", 0.076], ["2022-08-31", 0.078], ["2022-10-11", 0.077], ["2022-10-16", 0.077], ["2022-12-07", 0.077], ["2022-12-08", 0.077], ["2022-12-19", 0.075], ["2022-12-25", 0.075], ["2022-12-29", 0.076], ["2023-01-03", 0.075], ["2023-01-04", 0.067], ["2023-01-05", 0.062], ["2023-01-08", 0.066], ["2023-01-10", 0.074], ["2023-01-16", 0.073], ["2023-01-20", 0.072], ["2023-01-22", 0.071], ["2023-01-26", 0.071], ["2023-01-28", 0.063], ["2023-01-30", 0.062], ["2023-02-01", 0.061], ["2023-02-01", 0.058], ["2023-02-05", 0.058], ["2023-02-05", 0.057], ["2023-02-07", 0.057], ["2023-02-09", 0.057], ["2023-02-12", 0.057], ["2023-02-14", 0.056], ["2023-02-15", 0.055], ["2023-02-16", 0.055], ["2023-02-18", 0.055], ["2023-02-19", 0.054], ["2023-02-20", 0.054], ["2023-02-21", 0.054], ["2023-02-23", 0.053], ["2023-02-24", 0.053], ["2023-02-27", 0.053], ["2023-02-28", 0.051], ["2023-03-01", 0.051], ["2023-03-02", 0.053], ["2023-03-04", 0.052], ["2023-03-05", 0.051], ["2023-03-06", 0.051], ["2023-03-07", 0.051], ["2023-03-08", 0.051], ["2023-03-10", 0.051], ["2023-03-10", 0.051], ["2023-03-13", 0.05], ["2023-03-14", 0.049], ["2023-03-16", 0.048], ["2023-03-18", 0.048], ["2023-03-18", 0.047], ["2023-03-22", 0.047], ["2023-03-23", 0.046], ["2023-03-24", 0.046], ["2023-03-25", 0.046], ["2023-03-26", 0.045], ["2023-03-27", 0.045], ["2023-03-28", 0.045], ["2023-03-29", 0.045], ["2023-03-31", 0.04]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10791/ | In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe hepatitis in young children in which the cause is of unknown origin.
In an outbreak report on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least 169 cases of hepatitis of unknown origin in children. The age range of cases is 1 month to 16 years old. Seventeen of the children have undergone liver transplants and at least one has died. None of the viruses that cause acute viral hepatitis (hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D and E) have been detected in any of the 169 cases.
The United Kingdom has had the greatest number of reported cases so far, with 108 cases as of 21 April according to the UK Health Security Agency. 77% of cases have tested positive for adenovirus. None of the confirmed cases is known to have received a COVID vaccine.
In the United States, the state of Alabama was the first to report cases. All nine of the reported cases have tested positive for adenovirus according to the U.S. CDC. Five of these were sequenced, and adenovirus type 41 infection was identified in all five. Adenovirus type 41 is known to commonly cause pediatric acute gastroenteritis, but is not known to be a cause of hepatitis in otherwise healthy children.
Currently the leading hypothesis for the causative agent involves adenovirus, with either an already-circulating variant severely impacting immunologically naive young children or there being a new variant with a more severe clinical profile. The former may be the result of less social mixing during the COVID pandemic. However, public health officials have emphasized that other hypotheses have not been ruled out. Other hypotheses include COVID infection or an unidentified toxin. Some have suggested COVID vaccination may be a cause and a recent paper has found that mRNA vaccine can enter a human liver cell line in vitro: "Our results indicate a fast up-take of BNT162b2 into human liver cell line Huh7, leading to changes in LINE-1 expression and distribution." | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve on the basis of research findings/government reports. The systematic review (either peer-reviewed or a pre-print deemed credible by Metaculus) or statement by the WHO, US CDC, UK HSA, or EU ECDC that is most recent as of 1 April 2023 and which conclusively identifies the causative agent will be considered. If the causative agent is COVID vaccination, then this resolves positive.
If as of 1 April 2023 there is no systematic review or statement by the WHO, US CDC, UK HSA, or EU ECDC that identifies the causative agent, then Metaculus will conduct a review of all relevant published papers available as of 1 April 2023 that can be found via Google Scholar and that attempt to identify the causative agent. If at least 85% of these published papers claim a statistically significant and/or clinically meaningful association between severe pediatric hepatitis and COVID vaccination, then this will resolve positive.
COVID vaccination need not be the only cause of severe pediatric hepatitis, it just needs to be a main cause. e.g.: if cases of severe pediatric hepatitis are conclusively linked to some interaction between adenovirus infection and COVID vaccination, but not to either one of these on their own, then this will resolve positive.
Also see this question on whether pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin will be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection | true | 2023-03-31 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-06-04 | 2022-04-28 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-29", 0.9], ["2022-04-29", 0.86], ["2022-04-30", 0.665], ["2022-04-30", 0.723], ["2022-04-30", 0.642], ["2022-04-30", 0.642], ["2022-05-01", 0.568], ["2022-05-01", 0.543], ["2022-05-01", 0.535], ["2022-05-01", 0.535], ["2022-05-02", 0.533], ["2022-05-02", 0.535], ["2022-05-02", 0.487], ["2022-05-03", 0.487], ["2022-05-03", 0.47], ["2022-05-03", 0.469], ["2022-05-03", 0.479], ["2022-05-04", 0.48], ["2022-05-04", 0.48], ["2022-05-04", 0.457], ["2022-05-05", 0.442], ["2022-05-05", 0.44], ["2022-05-05", 0.421], ["2022-05-05", 0.42], ["2022-05-05", 0.466], ["2022-05-05", 0.467], ["2022-05-05", 0.467], ["2022-05-06", 0.463], ["2022-05-06", 0.451], ["2022-05-06", 0.451], ["2022-05-08", 0.449], ["2022-05-08", 0.452], ["2022-05-09", 0.46], ["2022-05-09", 0.457], ["2022-05-09", 0.487], ["2022-05-09", 0.487], ["2022-05-10", 0.492], ["2022-05-10", 0.522], ["2022-05-10", 0.522], ["2022-05-10", 0.524], ["2022-05-10", 0.524], ["2022-05-11", 0.533], ["2022-05-11", 0.533], ["2022-05-11", 0.544], ["2022-05-11", 0.542], ["2022-05-11", 0.542], ["2022-05-12", 0.54], ["2022-05-12", 0.556], ["2022-05-12", 0.558], ["2022-05-12", 0.557], ["2022-05-12", 0.557], ["2022-05-12", 0.566], ["2022-05-13", 0.566], ["2022-05-13", 0.566], ["2022-05-13", 0.571], ["2022-05-14", 0.597], ["2022-05-14", 0.6], ["2022-05-16", 0.603], ["2022-05-17", 0.611], ["2022-05-17", 0.611], ["2022-05-17", 0.615], ["2022-05-18", 0.617], ["2022-05-18", 0.619], ["2022-05-19", 0.619], ["2022-05-19", 0.651], ["2022-05-19", 0.646], ["2022-05-19", 0.646], ["2022-05-19", 0.667], ["2022-05-19", 0.673], ["2022-05-19", 0.673], ["2022-05-19", 0.675], ["2022-05-19", 0.675], ["2022-05-19", 0.692], ["2022-05-19", 0.709], ["2022-05-19", 0.745], ["2022-05-20", 0.745], ["2022-05-20", 0.775], ["2022-05-20", 0.789], ["2022-05-20", 0.79], ["2022-05-20", 0.79], ["2022-05-20", 0.791], ["2022-05-20", 0.795]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10826/ | Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave.
As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-05-20 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-06-15 | 2022-04-28 | [] | binary | [["2022-04-29", 0.43], ["2022-04-30", 0.365], ["2022-04-30", 0.365], ["2022-04-30", 0.302], ["2022-05-01", 0.302], ["2022-05-02", 0.245], ["2022-05-02", 0.245], ["2022-05-02", 0.238], ["2022-05-03", 0.227], ["2022-05-03", 0.249], ["2022-05-03", 0.249], ["2022-05-04", 0.25], ["2022-05-04", 0.241], ["2022-05-04", 0.215], ["2022-05-05", 0.214], ["2022-05-05", 0.214], ["2022-05-05", 0.202], ["2022-05-05", 0.202], ["2022-05-05", 0.202], ["2022-05-05", 0.202], ["2022-05-06", 0.2], ["2022-05-06", 0.201], ["2022-05-06", 0.201], ["2022-05-06", 0.201], ["2022-05-06", 0.209], ["2022-05-06", 0.209], ["2022-05-06", 0.226], ["2022-05-07", 0.234], ["2022-05-07", 0.242], ["2022-05-07", 0.242], ["2022-05-08", 0.255], ["2022-05-08", 0.255], ["2022-05-09", 0.253], ["2022-05-10", 0.253], ["2022-05-10", 0.262], ["2022-05-11", 0.262], ["2022-05-11", 0.263], ["2022-05-11", 0.264], ["2022-05-12", 0.269], ["2022-05-12", 0.275], ["2022-05-12", 0.278], ["2022-05-12", 0.278], ["2022-05-13", 0.265], ["2022-05-13", 0.268], ["2022-05-15", 0.268], ["2022-05-15", 0.261], ["2022-05-16", 0.264], ["2022-05-16", 0.264], ["2022-05-16", 0.265], ["2022-05-16", 0.265], ["2022-05-17", 0.264], ["2022-05-17", 0.264], ["2022-05-17", 0.269], ["2022-05-18", 0.285], ["2022-05-18", 0.286], ["2022-05-18", 0.286], ["2022-05-18", 0.29], ["2022-05-18", 0.298], ["2022-05-19", 0.298], ["2022-05-19", 0.304], ["2022-05-19", 0.299], ["2022-05-19", 0.311], ["2022-05-19", 0.311], ["2022-05-19", 0.312], ["2022-05-19", 0.307], ["2022-05-19", 0.307], ["2022-05-19", 0.304], ["2022-05-19", 0.304], ["2022-05-19", 0.308], ["2022-05-19", 0.321], ["2022-05-19", 0.321], ["2022-05-19", 0.323], ["2022-05-19", 0.323], ["2022-05-19", 0.34], ["2022-05-19", 0.344], ["2022-05-19", 0.344], ["2022-05-20", 0.343], ["2022-05-20", 0.344], ["2022-05-20", 0.346]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10827/ | Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave.
As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-05-20 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-27 | 2022-04-28 | ["https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/", "https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/"] | binary | [["2022-04-30", 0.38], ["2022-04-30", 0.38], ["2022-05-01", 0.348], ["2022-05-03", 0.35], ["2022-05-03", 0.375], ["2022-05-03", 0.375], ["2022-05-04", 0.383], ["2022-05-04", 0.383], ["2022-05-04", 0.364], ["2022-05-05", 0.364], ["2022-05-05", 0.345], ["2022-05-05", 0.345], ["2022-05-06", 0.311], ["2022-05-06", 0.311], ["2022-05-08", 0.323], ["2022-05-08", 0.331], ["2022-05-08", 0.332], ["2022-05-10", 0.349], ["2022-05-11", 0.344], ["2022-05-11", 0.348], ["2022-05-12", 0.348], ["2022-05-12", 0.355], ["2022-05-13", 0.348], ["2022-05-16", 0.352], ["2022-05-16", 0.357], ["2022-05-18", 0.36], ["2022-05-19", 0.367], ["2022-05-19", 0.367], ["2022-05-19", 0.382], ["2022-05-19", 0.385], ["2022-05-19", 0.389], ["2022-05-19", 0.39], ["2022-05-20", 0.392], ["2022-05-20", 0.392], ["2022-05-20", 0.4], ["2022-05-20", 0.414], ["2022-05-20", 0.416], ["2022-05-20", 0.418]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10828/ | Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave.
As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to July 22, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-05-20 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-27 | 2022-04-28 | ["https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/"] | binary | [["2022-04-29", 0.42], ["2022-04-30", 0.31], ["2022-04-30", 0.217], ["2022-04-30", 0.178], ["2022-04-30", 0.188], ["2022-04-30", 0.188], ["2022-04-30", 0.273], ["2022-05-01", 0.239], ["2022-05-01", 0.237], ["2022-05-02", 0.222], ["2022-05-02", 0.208], ["2022-05-02", 0.202], ["2022-05-02", 0.195], ["2022-05-03", 0.19], ["2022-05-03", 0.19], ["2022-05-03", 0.197], ["2022-05-03", 0.209], ["2022-05-04", 0.209], ["2022-05-04", 0.198], ["2022-05-04", 0.198], ["2022-05-05", 0.192], ["2022-05-05", 0.19], ["2022-05-05", 0.18], ["2022-05-05", 0.179], ["2022-05-06", 0.178], ["2022-05-06", 0.178], ["2022-05-06", 0.175], ["2022-05-07", 0.175], ["2022-05-07", 0.175], ["2022-05-07", 0.175], ["2022-05-08", 0.182], ["2022-05-08", 0.177], ["2022-05-10", 0.177], ["2022-05-10", 0.18], ["2022-05-10", 0.182], ["2022-05-10", 0.174], ["2022-05-10", 0.168], ["2022-05-11", 0.17], ["2022-05-11", 0.17], ["2022-05-12", 0.171], ["2022-05-12", 0.174], ["2022-05-13", 0.174], ["2022-05-14", 0.166], ["2022-05-14", 0.165], ["2022-05-14", 0.161], ["2022-05-16", 0.162], ["2022-05-16", 0.161], ["2022-05-16", 0.161], ["2022-05-18", 0.161], ["2022-05-19", 0.136], ["2022-05-19", 0.134], ["2022-05-19", 0.135], ["2022-05-19", 0.135], ["2022-05-19", 0.139], ["2022-05-19", 0.139], ["2022-05-19", 0.14], ["2022-05-19", 0.142], ["2022-05-19", 0.153], ["2022-05-19", 0.153], ["2022-05-19", 0.164], ["2022-05-19", 0.164], ["2022-05-20", 0.164], ["2022-05-20", 0.164]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10829/ | Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun increasing following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave.
As of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is 181. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve as "Yes" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 2000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to July 22, 2022 (inclusive). The "Hospitalization Trends" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard will be used as the definitive source | true | 2022-05-20 | Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-04-29 | ["https://www.dawn.com/news/1729549", "https://propakistani.pk/2022/12/14/calm-before-the-storm-pakistans-perceived-default-risk-falls-sharply-below-60/"] | binary | [["2022-05-09", 0.4], ["2022-05-10", 0.35], ["2022-05-11", 0.35], ["2022-05-11", 0.35], ["2022-05-11", 0.292], ["2022-05-11", 0.31], ["2022-05-11", 0.373], ["2022-05-11", 0.373], ["2022-05-12", 0.349], ["2022-05-12", 0.36], ["2022-05-12", 0.367], ["2022-05-12", 0.372], ["2022-05-12", 0.372], ["2022-05-12", 0.373], ["2022-05-12", 0.378], ["2022-05-12", 0.384], ["2022-05-13", 0.384], ["2022-05-13", 0.364], ["2022-05-13", 0.375], ["2022-05-13", 0.379], ["2022-05-14", 0.379], ["2022-05-16", 0.389], ["2022-05-17", 0.392], ["2022-05-21", 0.392], ["2022-06-07", 0.393], ["2022-06-11", 0.394], ["2022-06-12", 0.407], ["2022-06-12", 0.407], ["2022-06-12", 0.408], ["2022-06-14", 0.408], ["2022-06-21", 0.408], ["2022-06-28", 0.408], ["2022-07-05", 0.408], ["2022-07-12", 0.408], ["2022-07-15", 0.408], ["2022-07-20", 0.408], ["2022-07-27", 0.408], ["2022-08-05", 0.408], ["2022-08-18", 0.408], ["2022-08-31", 0.408], ["2022-10-16", 0.408], ["2022-10-24", 0.4], ["2022-10-25", 0.399], ["2022-10-26", 0.399], ["2022-11-12", 0.392], ["2022-11-12", 0.391], ["2022-11-13", 0.391], ["2022-11-14", 0.394], ["2022-11-25", 0.394], ["2022-11-25", 0.395], ["2022-11-25", 0.395], ["2022-11-27", 0.394], ["2022-11-28", 0.377], ["2022-11-28", 0.378], ["2022-11-30", 0.38], ["2022-11-30", 0.409], ["2022-11-30", 0.41], ["2022-12-01", 0.413], ["2022-12-02", 0.415], ["2022-12-06", 0.415], ["2022-12-07", 0.399], ["2022-12-14", 0.4], ["2022-12-15", 0.4], ["2022-12-16", 0.397], ["2022-12-16", 0.397], ["2022-12-17", 0.384], ["2022-12-17", 0.386], ["2022-12-17", 0.384], ["2022-12-17", 0.371], ["2022-12-17", 0.369], ["2022-12-18", 0.367], ["2022-12-18", 0.369], ["2022-12-19", 0.369], ["2022-12-19", 0.366], ["2022-12-20", 0.366], ["2022-12-20", 0.362], ["2022-12-22", 0.357], ["2022-12-22", 0.36], ["2022-12-23", 0.36], ["2022-12-24", 0.345], ["2022-12-24", 0.345], ["2022-12-24", 0.343], ["2022-12-25", 0.336], ["2022-12-28", 0.336], ["2022-12-29", 0.333], ["2022-12-29", 0.33], ["2022-12-29", 0.324], ["2022-12-29", 0.324], ["2022-12-29", 0.314], ["2022-12-29", 0.305], ["2022-12-30", 0.299], ["2022-12-30", 0.29], ["2022-12-30", 0.281], ["2022-12-30", 0.281], ["2022-12-30", 0.211], ["2022-12-30", 0.197], ["2022-12-30", 0.197], ["2022-12-31", 0.185], ["2022-12-31", 0.185], ["2022-12-31", 0.17], ["2022-12-31", 0.17]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10833/ | Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan "bet his country's economy on getting Chinese aid through the Belt & Road initiative", according to VC Aziz Gilani. Gilani explains:
To keep his Chinese overlords happy, he ignored rampant human trafficking of child brides from Pakistan to China, and Muslim genocide. In January, his advisors determined that the only way to prevent a sovereign default was to find a way to rollover $3B worth of loans Pakistan owed China. In February he participated in a lavish four-day red-carpet visit in which he seems to have gotten some kind of assurance that the Chinese loans would be rolled over. In any case, Pakistan paid the $3B to China on March 20th, and never got a loan back. On March 25th, the State Bank of Pakistan tried to calm down creditors claiming that fresh Chinese loans were on the way. They never arrived.
After attempting to dissolve parliament, he was removed from office via a parliamentary vote of no confidence on April 9.
There are growing concerns surrounding Pakistani default risk, with Bloomberg reporting that "Pakistan’s 5-year default risk is near the highest [it's been] since 2013." Bloomberg continues:
With just enough foreign reserves to cover two months of imports, the clock is ticking on new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to fund a financing gap. The nation faces a funding requirement of $14.1 billion for January-June alone, more than the central bank’s $11.3 billion in reserves, according to Bloomberg Economics.
The fear that it would tumble into a profound economic and financial crisis -- much like what happened to Sri Lanka -- has sent its five-year credit-default swaps to the highest since 2013 even after political stability was restored with the ouster of Imran Khan.
Further, according to a Fitch Ratings April 12, 2022 report:
Pakistan faces USD20 billion in external debt repayments in FY23, though this includes USD7 billion in Chinese and Saudi deposits that we expect to be rolled over. Higher trade deficits and capital outflows have driven a sharp depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar. This, along with debt repayments, has put pressure on liquid foreign-exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which fell by USD5.1 billion between end-February and 1 April 2022, to USD11.3 billion. We believe the decline also partly reflects repayment of a USD2.4 billion loan from China that is slated to be renewed. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if, before 00:00 Eastern on 1 January 2023, the State Bank of Pakistan announces that Pakistan has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Pakistan has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that Pakistan has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations:
BBC News
Associated Press
Reuters
Wall Street Journal
Financial Time | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-10 | 2022-05-03 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10865/rus\u2026"] | binary | [["2022-05-05", 0.5], ["2022-05-05", 0.398], ["2022-05-05", 0.381], ["2022-05-06", 0.383], ["2022-05-06", 0.363], ["2022-05-06", 0.384], ["2022-05-06", 0.384], ["2022-05-06", 0.383], ["2022-05-06", 0.382], ["2022-05-06", 0.382], ["2022-05-06", 0.386], ["2022-05-06", 0.391], ["2022-05-06", 0.386], ["2022-05-06", 0.38], ["2022-05-06", 0.375], ["2022-05-06", 0.355], ["2022-05-06", 0.348], ["2022-05-06", 0.347], ["2022-05-06", 0.344], ["2022-05-06", 0.345], ["2022-05-06", 0.344], ["2022-05-06", 0.347], ["2022-05-06", 0.359], ["2022-05-06", 0.353], ["2022-05-06", 0.336], ["2022-05-06", 0.335], ["2022-05-06", 0.331], ["2022-05-06", 0.327], ["2022-05-06", 0.327], ["2022-05-06", 0.316], ["2022-05-06", 0.311], ["2022-05-06", 0.306], ["2022-05-06", 0.3], ["2022-05-06", 0.299], ["2022-05-06", 0.301], ["2022-05-06", 0.312], ["2022-05-06", 0.311], ["2022-05-06", 0.311], ["2022-05-06", 0.31], ["2022-05-07", 0.308], ["2022-05-07", 0.3], ["2022-05-07", 0.299], ["2022-05-07", 0.3], ["2022-05-07", 0.298], ["2022-05-07", 0.294], ["2022-05-07", 0.294], ["2022-05-07", 0.292], ["2022-05-07", 0.292], ["2022-05-07", 0.287], ["2022-05-07", 0.288], ["2022-05-07", 0.285], ["2022-05-07", 0.294], ["2022-05-07", 0.292], ["2022-05-07", 0.291], ["2022-05-07", 0.291], ["2022-05-07", 0.289], ["2022-05-07", 0.285], ["2022-05-07", 0.284], ["2022-05-07", 0.281], ["2022-05-07", 0.277], ["2022-05-07", 0.277], ["2022-05-07", 0.276], ["2022-05-07", 0.269], ["2022-05-07", 0.273], ["2022-05-07", 0.269], ["2022-05-07", 0.27], ["2022-05-07", 0.269], ["2022-05-07", 0.266], ["2022-05-07", 0.264], ["2022-05-07", 0.261], ["2022-05-07", 0.261], ["2022-05-07", 0.261], ["2022-05-07", 0.257], ["2022-05-07", 0.256], ["2022-05-07", 0.256], ["2022-05-07", 0.253], ["2022-05-07", 0.252], ["2022-05-08", 0.252], ["2022-05-08", 0.25], ["2022-05-08", 0.25], ["2022-05-08", 0.25], ["2022-05-08", 0.251], ["2022-05-08", 0.251], ["2022-05-08", 0.25], ["2022-05-08", 0.248], ["2022-05-08", 0.248], ["2022-05-08", 0.247], ["2022-05-08", 0.246], ["2022-05-08", 0.246], ["2022-05-08", 0.245], ["2022-05-08", 0.245], ["2022-05-08", 0.246], ["2022-05-08", 0.247], ["2022-05-08", 0.247], ["2022-05-08", 0.247], ["2022-05-08", 0.246], ["2022-05-08", 0.245], ["2022-05-08", 0.245], ["2022-05-08", 0.246], ["2022-05-08", 0.243], ["2022-05-08", 0.243]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10845/ | On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine. Western officials, including UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace, have suggested that Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, enabling the full mobilization of Russia's reserve forces. May 9, known as "Victory Day," commemorates Russia's victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Putin may leverage its symbolic significance to rally the Russian public and announce a major escalation of hostilities. | Security & Defense | The question resolves positively if the following conditions are met:
Three credible media sources report that Russian President Vladimir Putin, or another representative of the Russian government, has officially announced that Russia is at war with Ukraine or that Russia is preparing to declare war on Ukraine.
The Russian announcement occurs no later than 11:59 PM (Moscow Standard Time) on May 9, 2022.
"Credible media" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets include Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Deutsche Welle, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and international newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times.
Related question: [By July 31, 2022, will Russia formally announce that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10865/rus… | true | 2022-05-08 | Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-31 | 2022-05-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-08", 0.2], ["2022-05-08", 0.265], ["2022-05-08", 0.393], ["2022-05-08", 0.393], ["2022-05-08", 0.36], ["2022-05-08", 0.387], ["2022-05-08", 0.431], ["2022-05-08", 0.394], ["2022-05-09", 0.394], ["2022-05-09", 0.402], ["2022-05-09", 0.412], ["2022-05-09", 0.443], ["2022-05-09", 0.448], ["2022-05-09", 0.457], ["2022-05-09", 0.461], ["2022-05-09", 0.461], ["2022-05-09", 0.479], ["2022-05-09", 0.48], ["2022-05-09", 0.482], ["2022-05-11", 0.482], ["2022-05-11", 0.483], ["2022-05-11", 0.5], ["2022-05-12", 0.49], ["2022-05-12", 0.5], ["2022-05-12", 0.5], ["2022-05-13", 0.486], ["2022-05-13", 0.484], ["2022-05-14", 0.488], ["2022-05-15", 0.488], ["2022-05-15", 0.486], ["2022-05-16", 0.486], ["2022-05-16", 0.486], ["2022-05-16", 0.498], ["2022-05-17", 0.512], ["2022-05-19", 0.512], ["2022-05-30", 0.514], ["2022-05-31", 0.514]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10858/ | A previous Metaculus question asked "at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government." The community prediction jumped to 99% in late February shortly after the invasion, when there was a widespread belief that Russia would attack Kyiv and did not drop from 99% until the second half of March. The community mean began dropping around the beginning of April, as Russia withdrew from Kyiv. Several commenters have discussed whether or not there were enough Russian incursions into Kyiv at the start of the invasion to resolve the question as yes. Commenters have discussed whether an ambiguous resolution is appropriate, if the size of the early incursions cannot be ascertained. They have also suggested that forthcoming reports might allow for an unambiguous resolution of the question, whether positive or negative. | Security & Defense | If the Russian troops question resolves ambiguously before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve positively. If the Russian troops question resolves positively or negatively before 2030-01-01, or if the Russian troops question is not resolved at all before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve negatively | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-08-01 | 2022-05-05 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-07", 0.99], ["2022-05-08", 0.438], ["2022-05-09", 0.363], ["2022-05-10", 0.278], ["2022-05-11", 0.255], ["2022-05-12", 0.254], ["2022-05-13", 0.252], ["2022-05-13", 0.251], ["2022-05-14", 0.251], ["2022-05-15", 0.249], ["2022-05-16", 0.242], ["2022-05-18", 0.236], ["2022-05-19", 0.232], ["2022-05-19", 0.23], ["2022-05-20", 0.223], ["2022-05-21", 0.221], ["2022-05-22", 0.22], ["2022-05-23", 0.22], ["2022-05-24", 0.218], ["2022-05-25", 0.217], ["2022-05-25", 0.216], ["2022-05-26", 0.214], ["2022-05-27", 0.213], ["2022-05-28", 0.211], ["2022-05-29", 0.209], ["2022-05-30", 0.209], ["2022-05-30", 0.205], ["2022-05-31", 0.205], ["2022-06-01", 0.201], ["2022-06-01", 0.199], ["2022-06-03", 0.194], ["2022-06-03", 0.193], ["2022-06-04", 0.191], ["2022-06-05", 0.191], ["2022-06-06", 0.191], ["2022-06-07", 0.189], ["2022-06-07", 0.188], ["2022-06-08", 0.185], ["2022-06-10", 0.185], ["2022-06-10", 0.183], ["2022-06-11", 0.183], ["2022-06-12", 0.183], ["2022-06-13", 0.183], ["2022-06-14", 0.183], ["2022-06-15", 0.183], ["2022-06-16", 0.183], ["2022-06-17", 0.18], ["2022-06-18", 0.179], ["2022-06-18", 0.179], ["2022-06-19", 0.179], ["2022-06-20", 0.178], ["2022-06-20", 0.178], ["2022-06-21", 0.177], ["2022-06-22", 0.177], ["2022-06-23", 0.176], ["2022-06-24", 0.175], ["2022-06-25", 0.175], ["2022-06-25", 0.174], ["2022-06-26", 0.174], ["2022-06-27", 0.173], ["2022-06-28", 0.173], ["2022-06-28", 0.172], ["2022-06-29", 0.171], ["2022-06-30", 0.171], ["2022-06-30", 0.17], ["2022-07-01", 0.169], ["2022-07-02", 0.168], ["2022-07-02", 0.165], ["2022-07-03", 0.163], ["2022-07-04", 0.162], ["2022-07-05", 0.16], ["2022-07-05", 0.159], ["2022-07-06", 0.159], ["2022-07-07", 0.159], ["2022-07-08", 0.159], ["2022-07-09", 0.157], ["2022-07-09", 0.157], ["2022-07-10", 0.155], ["2022-07-11", 0.156], ["2022-07-12", 0.155], ["2022-07-13", 0.154], ["2022-07-13", 0.153], ["2022-07-14", 0.152], ["2022-07-15", 0.151], ["2022-07-16", 0.149], ["2022-07-16", 0.149], ["2022-07-18", 0.149], ["2022-07-19", 0.149], ["2022-07-20", 0.148], ["2022-07-20", 0.148], ["2022-07-21", 0.147], ["2022-07-22", 0.145], ["2022-07-23", 0.145], ["2022-07-24", 0.144], ["2022-07-25", 0.143], ["2022-07-26", 0.143], ["2022-07-27", 0.142], ["2022-07-29", 0.142], ["2022-07-30", 0.141], ["2022-07-31", 0.1], ["2022-07-31", 0.101]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10865/ | US and Ukrainian officials have said that Russia could declare formal war on Ukraine as soon as 9 May 2022. (CNN report). A formal declaration of war is necessary under Russian law for a general mobilization of Russian society under a wartime footing, which would allow Russia's military to draft conscripts and reserves en masse, in order to solve its current manpower shortages.
According to Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the U.S. Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), "Without a national mobilization, the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state and availability of forces." (Source) (See also "War on the Rocks" podcast discussion here.) | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if Russia publicly announces that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine, before August 1, 2022.
"Ukraine" is defined as the state within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, led by the Ukrainian government recognized by the European Union. This declaration of war language is understood to include any and all euphemisms such as "the Kyiv regime," subject to the judgment of the Metaculus admins.
"Credible media" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets include Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Deutsche Welle, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and international newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times.
The absence of any such announcement will resolve this question as "no" on July 31, 2022.
The Metaculus admins determine resolution of this question and have sole discretion | true | 2022-07-31 | Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-06 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-06", 0.04], ["2022-05-06", 0.153], ["2022-05-06", 0.278], ["2022-05-06", 0.331], ["2022-05-07", 0.282], ["2022-05-07", 0.271], ["2022-05-07", 0.265], ["2022-05-07", 0.25], ["2022-05-07", 0.244], ["2022-05-08", 0.234], ["2022-05-08", 0.242], ["2022-05-08", 0.242], ["2022-05-11", 0.235], ["2022-05-11", 0.221], ["2022-05-12", 0.221], ["2022-05-12", 0.233], ["2022-05-13", 0.233], ["2022-05-13", 0.226], ["2022-05-16", 0.224], ["2022-05-16", 0.216], ["2022-05-17", 0.213], ["2022-05-19", 0.213], ["2022-05-20", 0.216], ["2022-05-21", 0.217], ["2022-05-22", 0.217], ["2022-05-23", 0.223], ["2022-05-24", 0.226], ["2022-06-02", 0.226], ["2022-06-07", 0.219], ["2022-06-11", 0.219], ["2022-06-12", 0.234], ["2022-06-12", 0.234], ["2022-06-14", 0.234], ["2022-06-21", 0.234], ["2022-06-28", 0.234], ["2022-07-01", 0.237], ["2022-07-04", 0.237], ["2022-07-05", 0.237], ["2022-07-05", 0.237], ["2022-07-12", 0.238], ["2022-07-20", 0.238], ["2022-07-27", 0.238], ["2022-07-27", 0.238], ["2022-07-29", 0.237], ["2022-07-30", 0.236], ["2022-07-31", 0.235], ["2022-08-05", 0.235], ["2022-08-18", 0.235], ["2022-08-21", 0.235], ["2022-08-31", 0.23], ["2022-09-07", 0.227], ["2022-10-07", 0.229], ["2022-10-10", 0.227], ["2022-10-10", 0.227], ["2022-10-13", 0.227], ["2022-10-16", 0.227], ["2022-11-01", 0.223], ["2022-11-03", 0.222], ["2022-11-03", 0.222], ["2022-11-05", 0.221], ["2022-11-05", 0.219], ["2022-11-05", 0.215], ["2022-11-05", 0.214], ["2022-11-06", 0.21], ["2022-11-10", 0.205], ["2022-11-10", 0.205], ["2022-11-10", 0.202], ["2022-11-11", 0.202], ["2022-11-15", 0.201], ["2022-11-18", 0.197], ["2022-11-18", 0.197], ["2022-11-18", 0.194], ["2022-11-21", 0.194], ["2022-11-22", 0.193], ["2022-11-22", 0.191], ["2022-11-23", 0.191], ["2022-11-24", 0.19], ["2022-11-24", 0.19], ["2022-12-07", 0.19], ["2022-12-11", 0.188], ["2022-12-11", 0.187], ["2022-12-12", 0.187], ["2022-12-13", 0.184], ["2022-12-14", 0.181], ["2022-12-14", 0.181], ["2022-12-16", 0.181], ["2022-12-21", 0.179], ["2022-12-22", 0.176], ["2022-12-22", 0.173], ["2022-12-24", 0.176], ["2022-12-24", 0.175], ["2022-12-25", 0.172], ["2022-12-25", 0.171], ["2022-12-27", 0.171], ["2022-12-27", 0.165], ["2022-12-27", 0.162], ["2022-12-29", 0.162], ["2022-12-30", 0.162], ["2022-12-31", 0.159], ["2022-12-31", 0.147], ["2022-12-31", 0.137]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10874/ | On May 2, 2022, the AI research group at Meta presented Open Pre-trained Transformers (OPT), a suite of decoder-only pre-trained transformers ranging from 125M to 175B parameters, which we aim to fully and responsibly share with interested researchers. | Science & Tech | This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2023 credible claims indicate that the parameters of OPT-175B are made available via hack or leak. This resolves positively even if the leaked/hacked weights are sold, rather than made freely publicly available. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-06 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-06", 0.1], ["2022-05-06", 0.173], ["2022-05-06", 0.227], ["2022-05-07", 0.307], ["2022-05-07", 0.257], ["2022-05-08", 0.258], ["2022-05-08", 0.25], ["2022-05-08", 0.25], ["2022-05-09", 0.251], ["2022-05-09", 0.245], ["2022-05-11", 0.245], ["2022-05-11", 0.245], ["2022-05-12", 0.239], ["2022-05-13", 0.247], ["2022-05-13", 0.246], ["2022-05-15", 0.246], ["2022-05-17", 0.244], ["2022-05-20", 0.243], ["2022-05-21", 0.242], ["2022-05-21", 0.244], ["2022-05-22", 0.244], ["2022-05-23", 0.247], ["2022-05-24", 0.245], ["2022-05-30", 0.245], ["2022-06-01", 0.24], ["2022-06-02", 0.239], ["2022-06-02", 0.238], ["2022-06-07", 0.238], ["2022-06-11", 0.237], ["2022-06-12", 0.249], ["2022-06-12", 0.249], ["2022-06-14", 0.249], ["2022-06-14", 0.249], ["2022-06-21", 0.249], ["2022-06-28", 0.249], ["2022-07-01", 0.254], ["2022-07-05", 0.254], ["2022-07-09", 0.251], ["2022-07-12", 0.251], ["2022-07-15", 0.251], ["2022-07-20", 0.25], ["2022-07-22", 0.246], ["2022-07-26", 0.247], ["2022-07-27", 0.247], ["2022-07-28", 0.247], ["2022-07-31", 0.246], ["2022-08-05", 0.246], ["2022-08-09", 0.246], ["2022-08-11", 0.241], ["2022-08-16", 0.241], ["2022-08-17", 0.24], ["2022-08-18", 0.24], ["2022-08-21", 0.236], ["2022-08-31", 0.236], ["2022-09-09", 0.235], ["2022-09-12", 0.235], ["2022-10-10", 0.235], ["2022-10-10", 0.235], ["2022-10-11", 0.235], ["2022-10-13", 0.235], ["2022-10-16", 0.234], ["2022-10-24", 0.233], ["2022-10-25", 0.232], ["2022-11-01", 0.232], ["2022-11-02", 0.23], ["2022-11-03", 0.227], ["2022-11-03", 0.226], ["2022-11-03", 0.224], ["2022-11-05", 0.225], ["2022-11-10", 0.222], ["2022-11-11", 0.221], ["2022-11-13", 0.217], ["2022-11-14", 0.217], ["2022-11-15", 0.217], ["2022-11-15", 0.217], ["2022-11-18", 0.213], ["2022-12-01", 0.213], ["2022-12-02", 0.211], ["2022-12-07", 0.211], ["2022-12-09", 0.211], ["2022-12-11", 0.211], ["2022-12-14", 0.209], ["2022-12-15", 0.207], ["2022-12-16", 0.207], ["2022-12-16", 0.203], ["2022-12-22", 0.201], ["2022-12-23", 0.201], ["2022-12-24", 0.2], ["2022-12-24", 0.194], ["2022-12-24", 0.192], ["2022-12-25", 0.192], ["2022-12-26", 0.189], ["2022-12-26", 0.187], ["2022-12-26", 0.187], ["2022-12-27", 0.186], ["2022-12-27", 0.184], ["2022-12-29", 0.183], ["2022-12-30", 0.181], ["2022-12-30", 0.176], ["2022-12-31", 0.146], ["2022-12-31", 0.125]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10875/ | On May 2, 2022, the AI research group at Meta presented Open Pre-trained Transformers (OPT), a suite of decoder-only pre-trained transformers ranging from 125M to 175B parameters, which we aim to fully and responsibly share with interested researchers. | Science & Tech | This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2023 Meta decides to publicly release the weights of their OPT-175B. Access by researchers only does not qualify as 'public access' for the purpose of this question | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-21 | 2022-05-11 | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62160227", "https://twitter.com/AP/status/1549993196205252608", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ranil-wickremesinghe-becomes-interim-president-sri-lanka-rcna38362", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62160227", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62132271"] | binary | [["2022-05-12", 0.5], ["2022-05-12", 0.52], ["2022-05-12", 0.58], ["2022-05-16", 0.548], ["2022-05-17", 0.54], ["2022-05-19", 0.54], ["2022-05-19", 0.562], ["2022-05-19", 0.57], ["2022-05-20", 0.617], ["2022-05-21", 0.625], ["2022-05-21", 0.625], ["2022-05-21", 0.625], ["2022-05-24", 0.644], ["2022-05-26", 0.638], ["2022-05-26", 0.631], ["2022-05-27", 0.628], ["2022-05-30", 0.628], ["2022-05-30", 0.623], ["2022-05-31", 0.621], ["2022-06-04", 0.619], ["2022-06-04", 0.618], ["2022-06-06", 0.62], ["2022-06-06", 0.62], ["2022-06-06", 0.621], ["2022-06-06", 0.622], ["2022-06-07", 0.622], ["2022-06-10", 0.622], ["2022-06-11", 0.623], ["2022-06-11", 0.623], ["2022-06-11", 0.623], ["2022-06-12", 0.623], ["2022-06-12", 0.623], ["2022-06-14", 0.623], ["2022-06-17", 0.623], ["2022-06-18", 0.623], ["2022-06-18", 0.622], ["2022-06-19", 0.62], ["2022-06-19", 0.617], ["2022-06-19", 0.61], ["2022-06-20", 0.609], ["2022-06-21", 0.609], ["2022-06-28", 0.611], ["2022-06-28", 0.611], ["2022-06-28", 0.612], ["2022-06-28", 0.612], ["2022-06-30", 0.62], ["2022-07-01", 0.621], ["2022-07-02", 0.621], ["2022-07-04", 0.622], ["2022-07-05", 0.622], ["2022-07-07", 0.622], ["2022-07-08", 0.629], ["2022-07-09", 0.635], ["2022-07-09", 0.678], ["2022-07-09", 0.686], ["2022-07-09", 0.7], ["2022-07-09", 0.705], ["2022-07-09", 0.762], ["2022-07-10", 0.762], ["2022-07-10", 0.78], ["2022-07-10", 0.783], ["2022-07-10", 0.81], ["2022-07-10", 0.81], ["2022-07-10", 0.818], ["2022-07-10", 0.818], ["2022-07-10", 0.836], ["2022-07-11", 0.834], ["2022-07-11", 0.837], ["2022-07-11", 0.842], ["2022-07-11", 0.851], ["2022-07-11", 0.854], ["2022-07-11", 0.857], ["2022-07-12", 0.857], ["2022-07-12", 0.863], ["2022-07-12", 0.871], ["2022-07-12", 0.871], ["2022-07-12", 0.872], ["2022-07-13", 0.874], ["2022-07-13", 0.863], ["2022-07-13", 0.882], ["2022-07-13", 0.885], ["2022-07-13", 0.885], ["2022-07-14", 0.885], ["2022-07-14", 0.886], ["2022-07-14", 0.888], ["2022-07-15", 0.888], ["2022-07-15", 0.897], ["2022-07-15", 0.897], ["2022-07-15", 0.901], ["2022-07-15", 0.903], ["2022-07-15", 0.905], ["2022-07-15", 0.906], ["2022-07-15", 0.916], ["2022-07-15", 0.924], ["2022-07-16", 0.924], ["2022-07-16", 0.925], ["2022-07-16", 0.925], ["2022-07-20", 0.926], ["2022-07-21", 0.927], ["2022-07-21", 0.927], ["2022-07-21", 0.928]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10928/ | Gotabaya Rajapaksa has been the President of Sri Lanka since November 2019. Rajapaksa is a member of the Rajapaksa family, a prominent family which has held significant influence in Sri Lankan politics.
Inflation in Sri Lanka has increased to 30% in April 2022, and federal debt was 101% of national GDP in 2020. A January 2020 poll by Verite Research found only 10% of Sri Lankan adults approved of the current government. National protests since March 2022 have demanded Rajapaksa's resignation, which the government responded to with curfews, a state of emergency, and censorship of social media sites.
On May 9, Gotabaya's brother Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned from the office of Prime Minister. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if, beginning at any time between May 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, Gotabaya Rajapaksa does not hold the office of President of Sri Lanka for a period of 7 days or more. Rajapaksa will be recognized as the President if over 50% of the Parliament of Sri Lanka recognizes him as the President, or if any branch of the Sri Lankan Armed Forces (army, navy, or air force) recognize him as the Supreme Commander of their branch | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-12 | ["https://hackernoon.com/sec-saved-coinbase-from-the-fate-that-befell-voyager-celsius-blockfi-and-gemini", "https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1595126123439923200", "https://s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/files/doc_financials/2022/q3/Q32022-Shareholder-Letter.pdf)", "https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/20/the-implosion-of-ftx-is-not-good-news-for-coinbase/)", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-21/crypto-firm-genesis-warns-of-possible-bankruptcy-without-funding?srnd=premium", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/blockfi-prepares-for-potential-bankruptcy-as-crypto-contagion-spreads-11668534824?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1", "https://www.reuters.com/technology/coinbase-write-off-investment-that-its-ventures-arm-made-ftx-source-2022-11-11/?taid=636eeeecdddb9b000179aa32&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1591073957700317184", "https://www.ft.com/content/0fa4f3b6-213c-4e76-bcd9-fcf184a264a2", "https://twitter.com/BlockFi/status/1590875997351866368", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-10/jpmorgan-strategists-warn-of-cascading-crypto-margin-calls-due-to-ftx-crisis?utm_content=markets&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&leadSource=uverify%20wall", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13514/coinbase-files-for-bankruptcy-in-2023/", "https://s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/files/doc_financials/2022/q3/Q32022-Shareholder-Letter.pdf", "https://www.nasdaq.com/glossary/p/parent-company", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1557106004172541954", "https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001679788/304d84bd-3534-4bba-a27c-d1c962a79fc6.pdf"] | binary | [["2022-05-18", 0.03], ["2022-05-19", 0.101], ["2022-05-20", 0.078], ["2022-05-21", 0.088], ["2022-05-23", 0.087], ["2022-05-25", 0.085], ["2022-05-30", 0.082], ["2022-06-01", 0.082], ["2022-06-02", 0.088], ["2022-06-04", 0.085], ["2022-06-06", 0.08], ["2022-06-07", 0.073], ["2022-06-08", 0.072], ["2022-06-10", 0.069], ["2022-06-11", 0.075], ["2022-06-12", 0.07], ["2022-06-14", 0.08], ["2022-06-15", 0.083], ["2022-06-21", 0.083], ["2022-06-22", 0.083], ["2022-06-24", 0.083], ["2022-06-28", 0.084], ["2022-07-02", 0.084], ["2022-07-02", 0.083], ["2022-07-05", 0.082], ["2022-07-07", 0.084], ["2022-07-08", 0.084], ["2022-07-12", 0.084], ["2022-07-15", 0.084], ["2022-07-20", 0.084], ["2022-07-22", 0.083], ["2022-07-24", 0.083], ["2022-07-27", 0.082], ["2022-07-29", 0.075], ["2022-07-29", 0.074], ["2022-08-05", 0.074], ["2022-08-09", 0.074], ["2022-08-11", 0.079], ["2022-08-14", 0.079], ["2022-08-15", 0.08], ["2022-08-18", 0.08], ["2022-08-25", 0.079], ["2022-08-27", 0.079], ["2022-08-31", 0.078], ["2022-09-06", 0.077], ["2022-09-07", 0.077], ["2022-09-16", 0.077], ["2022-09-16", 0.077], ["2022-09-30", 0.075], ["2022-10-05", 0.075], ["2022-10-07", 0.074], ["2022-10-09", 0.066], ["2022-10-10", 0.066], ["2022-10-11", 0.068], ["2022-10-16", 0.068], ["2022-10-20", 0.067], ["2022-10-20", 0.068], ["2022-10-22", 0.068], ["2022-10-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-01", 0.065], ["2022-11-02", 0.064], ["2022-11-03", 0.066], ["2022-11-05", 0.062], ["2022-11-06", 0.061], ["2022-11-07", 0.061], ["2022-11-08", 0.061], ["2022-11-09", 0.061], ["2022-11-10", 0.061], ["2022-11-12", 0.059], ["2022-11-13", 0.057], ["2022-11-15", 0.057], ["2022-11-16", 0.056], ["2022-11-18", 0.054], ["2022-11-20", 0.054], ["2022-11-21", 0.053], ["2022-11-22", 0.054], ["2022-11-23", 0.063], ["2022-11-24", 0.065], ["2022-11-25", 0.065], ["2022-11-26", 0.064], ["2022-11-27", 0.064], ["2022-11-29", 0.068], ["2022-11-30", 0.067], ["2022-12-01", 0.067], ["2022-12-07", 0.066], ["2022-12-09", 0.065], ["2022-12-11", 0.067], ["2022-12-12", 0.067], ["2022-12-14", 0.067], ["2022-12-14", 0.066], ["2022-12-16", 0.066], ["2022-12-18", 0.066], ["2022-12-18", 0.066], ["2022-12-22", 0.065], ["2022-12-23", 0.063], ["2022-12-24", 0.063], ["2022-12-25", 0.063], ["2022-12-27", 0.063], ["2022-12-28", 0.061], ["2022-12-30", 0.06], ["2022-12-31", 0.052]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10931/ | Coinbase Global, Inc., branded Coinbase, is an American publicly-traded company incorporated in Delaware that operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform. It is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States by trading volume.
In May 2022, amid a broad rout in the cryptocurrency markets, as reported by Bloomberg,
Coinbase Global Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said there is “no risk of bankruptcy” for the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, even amid a “black swan” event.
A filing late Tuesday by Coinbase included a “new risk factor” based on recent Securities and Exchange Commission requirement for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.
“Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors,” Coinbase wrote in the filing.
On May 11 2022, CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted, inter alia,
"We have no risk of bankruptcy, however we included a new risk factor based on an SEC requirement called SAB 121, which is a newly required disclosure for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties." | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if Coinbase Global Inc., or any parent company thereof, files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-08 | 2022-05-14 | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61585886", "https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1567928275913121792"] | binary | [["2022-05-22", 0.2], ["2022-05-23", 0.142], ["2022-05-23", 0.168], ["2022-05-23", 0.19], ["2022-05-23", 0.184], ["2022-05-23", 0.18], ["2022-05-24", 0.195], ["2022-05-24", 0.183], ["2022-05-24", 0.187], ["2022-05-25", 0.187], ["2022-05-25", 0.181], ["2022-05-25", 0.185], ["2022-05-26", 0.177], ["2022-05-26", 0.177], ["2022-05-28", 0.173], ["2022-05-28", 0.172], ["2022-05-29", 0.172], ["2022-05-29", 0.17], ["2022-05-30", 0.165], ["2022-05-31", 0.163], ["2022-06-01", 0.161], ["2022-06-01", 0.167], ["2022-06-01", 0.162], ["2022-06-01", 0.155], ["2022-06-01", 0.148], ["2022-06-01", 0.142], ["2022-06-02", 0.142], ["2022-06-02", 0.138], ["2022-06-03", 0.144], ["2022-06-03", 0.142], ["2022-06-04", 0.144], ["2022-06-04", 0.142], ["2022-06-04", 0.142], ["2022-06-04", 0.142], ["2022-06-04", 0.159], ["2022-06-05", 0.155], ["2022-06-05", 0.153], ["2022-06-05", 0.154], ["2022-06-05", 0.156], ["2022-06-05", 0.158], ["2022-06-06", 0.156], ["2022-06-06", 0.154], ["2022-06-06", 0.152], ["2022-06-06", 0.151], ["2022-06-06", 0.155], ["2022-06-06", 0.155], ["2022-06-09", 0.149], ["2022-06-09", 0.149], ["2022-06-09", 0.15], ["2022-06-09", 0.147], ["2022-06-10", 0.142], ["2022-06-11", 0.143], ["2022-06-12", 0.141], ["2022-06-12", 0.141], ["2022-06-12", 0.137], ["2022-06-14", 0.137], ["2022-06-16", 0.137], ["2022-06-21", 0.137], ["2022-06-22", 0.137], ["2022-06-23", 0.137], ["2022-06-23", 0.137], ["2022-06-28", 0.137], ["2022-07-02", 0.137], ["2022-07-02", 0.136], ["2022-07-04", 0.136], ["2022-07-05", 0.136], ["2022-07-12", 0.136], ["2022-07-12", 0.135], ["2022-07-15", 0.135], ["2022-07-15", 0.135], ["2022-07-20", 0.135], ["2022-07-22", 0.134], ["2022-07-22", 0.132], ["2022-07-22", 0.132], ["2022-07-24", 0.132], ["2022-07-27", 0.132], ["2022-07-29", 0.132], ["2022-07-30", 0.129], ["2022-07-31", 0.129], ["2022-08-02", 0.137], ["2022-08-02", 0.137], ["2022-08-05", 0.136], ["2022-08-09", 0.134], ["2022-08-12", 0.134], ["2022-08-15", 0.132], ["2022-08-15", 0.132], ["2022-08-16", 0.132], ["2022-08-18", 0.132], ["2022-08-19", 0.132], ["2022-08-22", 0.132], ["2022-08-22", 0.131], ["2022-08-23", 0.131], ["2022-08-23", 0.131], ["2022-08-23", 0.129], ["2022-08-25", 0.129], ["2022-08-26", 0.129], ["2022-08-26", 0.128], ["2022-08-31", 0.12], ["2022-09-02", 0.12], ["2022-09-08", 0.119], ["2022-09-08", 0.123]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10938/ | Elizabeth II, born 21 April 1926, is Queen of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms, and has reigned since 6 February 1952. She is currently the longest-reigning British monarch in history, and the third-longest-reigning monarch of all time.
At the age of 96, she is also the oldest ever British monarch, and has become increasingly frail in recent years, and has significantly reduced her workload. Some have suggested that it is time for her to abdicate.
In 1947, on her 21st birthday, then-Princess Elizabeth proclaimed:
I declare before you all that my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service, and the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong.
This statement has led many to believe that Elizabeth would not abdicate. Others claim that she is unlikely to abdicate because of her religious beliefs.
Speculation about Philip’s death precipitating an abdication is unlikely to bear out, say royal experts. “One main reason why the Queen will absolutely not abdicate is unlike other European monarchs, she is an anointed Queen,” the royal historian Hugo Vickers told the Guardian, referring to the pact she made with God during her coronation. “And if you are an anointed Queen you do not abdicate.”
The last British monarch to abdicate was Edward VIII in 1936. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 1, 2023, it is announced by Elizabeth II herself, by the Government of the United Kingdom, or by representatives of the Royal Family, that Queen Elizabeth II has abdicated.
The question will resolve as No if Elizabeth II is still reigning on January 1, 2023, or if her reign ends for any reason other than abdication prior to that date | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-17 | ["https://www.lawfareblog.com/designate-or-not-russia-and-sst-status", "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-lawmakers-declare-russia-state-sponsor-terrorism-2022-11-23/", "https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1595375911351746560)", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-resolution/1113/cosponsors?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22state+sponsor+of+terrorism%22%2C%22state%22%2C%22sponsor%22%2C%22of%22%2C%22terrorism%22%5D%7D&s=1&r=1&overview=closed#tabs", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63044747", "https://ground.news/article/us-senator-submits-bill-to-designate-russia-as-a-terrorist-sponsor-state_82f76b", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-09-06/biden-will-not-declare-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-white-house", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/13/ukraine-russia-live-updates/10317309002/", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-resolution/623/text", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/world/europe/the-us-senate-passes-a-resolution-seeking-to-label-russia-as-a-sponsor-of-terrorism.html", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/pelosi-to-blinken-label-russia-as-terrorist-state-or-else-congress-will-00047076"] | binary | [["2022-06-11", 0.25], ["2022-06-13", 0.334], ["2022-06-14", 0.333], ["2022-06-16", 0.331], ["2022-06-18", 0.331], ["2022-06-19", 0.326], ["2022-06-21", 0.326], ["2022-06-25", 0.322], ["2022-06-26", 0.339], ["2022-06-28", 0.34], ["2022-06-30", 0.335], ["2022-07-04", 0.335], ["2022-07-05", 0.335], ["2022-07-09", 0.342], ["2022-07-10", 0.342], ["2022-07-12", 0.344], ["2022-07-13", 0.37], ["2022-07-15", 0.376], ["2022-07-16", 0.383], ["2022-07-18", 0.394], ["2022-07-19", 0.397], ["2022-07-20", 0.397], ["2022-07-22", 0.479], ["2022-07-24", 0.497], ["2022-07-26", 0.501], ["2022-07-28", 0.501], ["2022-07-29", 0.501], ["2022-07-31", 0.575], ["2022-08-01", 0.572], ["2022-08-02", 0.577], ["2022-08-04", 0.585], ["2022-08-06", 0.589], ["2022-08-07", 0.589], ["2022-08-15", 0.589], ["2022-08-17", 0.582], ["2022-08-18", 0.582], ["2022-08-23", 0.582], ["2022-08-31", 0.582], ["2022-09-04", 0.582], ["2022-09-05", 0.577], ["2022-09-07", 0.577], ["2022-09-09", 0.513], ["2022-09-10", 0.51], ["2022-09-13", 0.508], ["2022-09-15", 0.512], ["2022-09-16", 0.412], ["2022-09-17", 0.38], ["2022-09-19", 0.376], ["2022-09-20", 0.375], ["2022-09-21", 0.376], ["2022-09-25", 0.376], ["2022-09-27", 0.371], ["2022-09-29", 0.349], ["2022-10-01", 0.346], ["2022-10-03", 0.345], ["2022-10-09", 0.342], ["2022-10-11", 0.345], ["2022-10-12", 0.339], ["2022-10-16", 0.339], ["2022-10-18", 0.338], ["2022-10-21", 0.338], ["2022-10-22", 0.339], ["2022-10-25", 0.337], ["2022-10-26", 0.337], ["2022-10-30", 0.337], ["2022-10-31", 0.336], ["2022-11-02", 0.333], ["2022-11-05", 0.33], ["2022-11-05", 0.329], ["2022-11-10", 0.325], ["2022-11-11", 0.325], ["2022-11-12", 0.325], ["2022-11-14", 0.325], ["2022-11-15", 0.321], ["2022-11-17", 0.32], ["2022-11-20", 0.32], ["2022-11-20", 0.319], ["2022-11-22", 0.319], ["2022-11-24", 0.33], ["2022-11-25", 0.336], ["2022-11-26", 0.333], ["2022-11-27", 0.333], ["2022-11-28", 0.333], ["2022-11-30", 0.332], ["2022-12-01", 0.329], ["2022-12-03", 0.31], ["2022-12-04", 0.306], ["2022-12-07", 0.306], ["2022-12-08", 0.304], ["2022-12-11", 0.301], ["2022-12-13", 0.299], ["2022-12-14", 0.298], ["2022-12-16", 0.292], ["2022-12-18", 0.288], ["2022-12-20", 0.288], ["2022-12-22", 0.28], ["2022-12-24", 0.269], ["2022-12-26", 0.269], ["2022-12-28", 0.266], ["2022-12-30", 0.258], ["2022-12-31", 0.195]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10954/ | "State Sponsors of Terrorism" is a designation applied by the US Department of State to countries which the Department alleges to have "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism". Inclusion on the list imposes strict unilateral sanctions and lifts sovereign immunity protections shielding a country from being sued for civil damages.
On May 15, 2022, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) urged President Biden to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. McConnell made his comments after Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) introduced a resolution on May 10 calling for the designation of the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. In an interview with MSNBC, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) also expressed support for the designation. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve as Yes if the Russian Federation appears on the US State Department's State Sponsors of Terrorism list at any time between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023.
In the event that the Russian Federation is placed on the list but removed before 2023, the question will still resolve positively | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-18 | ["https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCucot-Zp428OwkyRm2I7v2Q/monthly", "https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCucot-Zp428OwkyRm2I7v2Q/monthly", "https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCucot-Zp428OwkyRm2I7v2Q/monthly"] | binary | [["2022-06-11", 0.45], ["2022-06-11", 0.4], ["2022-06-12", 0.37], ["2022-06-12", 0.359], ["2022-06-13", 0.364], ["2022-06-14", 0.354], ["2022-06-15", 0.355], ["2022-06-16", 0.355], ["2022-06-18", 0.35], ["2022-06-20", 0.35], ["2022-06-21", 0.367], ["2022-06-21", 0.373], ["2022-06-22", 0.377], ["2022-06-23", 0.38], ["2022-06-23", 0.382], ["2022-06-28", 0.381], ["2022-07-05", 0.381], ["2022-07-09", 0.388], ["2022-07-10", 0.362], ["2022-07-11", 0.376], ["2022-07-12", 0.377], ["2022-07-14", 0.377], ["2022-07-20", 0.374], ["2022-07-20", 0.374], ["2022-07-22", 0.363], ["2022-07-23", 0.362], ["2022-07-24", 0.361], ["2022-07-25", 0.359], ["2022-07-27", 0.359], ["2022-07-29", 0.354], ["2022-07-31", 0.345], ["2022-08-01", 0.345], ["2022-08-05", 0.344], ["2022-08-06", 0.344], ["2022-08-15", 0.347], ["2022-08-18", 0.366], ["2022-08-22", 0.358], ["2022-08-23", 0.348], ["2022-08-31", 0.33], ["2022-09-16", 0.33], ["2022-09-16", 0.325], ["2022-09-30", 0.319], ["2022-10-01", 0.316], ["2022-10-07", 0.305], ["2022-10-08", 0.304], ["2022-10-09", 0.304], ["2022-10-10", 0.291], ["2022-10-16", 0.292], ["2022-10-16", 0.292], ["2022-10-17", 0.273], ["2022-10-23", 0.266], ["2022-10-23", 0.259], ["2022-10-24", 0.24], ["2022-10-25", 0.24], ["2022-11-01", 0.24], ["2022-11-04", 0.248], ["2022-11-05", 0.236], ["2022-11-07", 0.236], ["2022-11-10", 0.231], ["2022-11-11", 0.231], ["2022-11-12", 0.231], ["2022-11-14", 0.217], ["2022-11-15", 0.217], ["2022-11-17", 0.216], ["2022-11-17", 0.216], ["2022-11-20", 0.215], ["2022-11-23", 0.215], ["2022-11-23", 0.214], ["2022-11-24", 0.212], ["2022-11-24", 0.196], ["2022-11-25", 0.181], ["2022-11-26", 0.16], ["2022-11-27", 0.149], ["2022-11-27", 0.146], ["2022-11-28", 0.143], ["2022-11-29", 0.147], ["2022-11-30", 0.144], ["2022-12-01", 0.144], ["2022-12-04", 0.144], ["2022-12-07", 0.143], ["2022-12-07", 0.142], ["2022-12-08", 0.142], ["2022-12-09", 0.142], ["2022-12-11", 0.142], ["2022-12-14", 0.138], ["2022-12-14", 0.135], ["2022-12-15", 0.135], ["2022-12-15", 0.132], ["2022-12-16", 0.131], ["2022-12-18", 0.131], ["2022-12-18", 0.125], ["2022-12-20", 0.124], ["2022-12-21", 0.121], ["2022-12-22", 0.119], ["2022-12-23", 0.117], ["2022-12-24", 0.116], ["2022-12-24", 0.115], ["2022-12-27", 0.113], ["2022-12-29", 0.112], ["2022-12-30", 0.092], ["2022-12-31", 0.075]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10969/ | James Charles is a popular beauty YouTuber who was the subject of controversy in April 2021 after admitting to sexting underage boys (though he denied knowing they were underage at the time). Since then, he has lost over a million followers.
Previously, he has bounced back from controversy. In May 2019, he set the record for most YouTube subscribers lost in a single month after a controversy with fellow beauty YouTubers Jeffree Star and Tati Westbrook, but regained that amount in seven months. | Arts & Recreation | This question will resolve as Yes if James Charles' YouTube channel has at least 25 million subscribers at any time between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023. Otherwise it resolves as No | true | 2022-12-31 | Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-23 | 2022-05-19 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8723/date-of-next-who-pheic-declaration/", "https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-the-press-conference-following-IHR-emergency-committee-regarding-the-multi--country-outbreak-of-monkeypox--23-july-2022", "https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4157/on-what-date-will-the-next-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern-pheic-be-officially-declared/", "https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1550846981764964353", "https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1550844163393957889", "https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-experts-split-monkeypox-emergency-ahead-decision-sources-2022-07-23/?taid=62dbdbc43a90f700019d15df&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1547550794383327235"] | binary | [["2022-05-19", 0.85], ["2022-05-20", 0.582], ["2022-05-21", 0.621], ["2022-05-21", 0.625], ["2022-05-22", 0.598], ["2022-05-22", 0.576], ["2022-05-23", 0.526], ["2022-05-24", 0.426], ["2022-05-24", 0.421], ["2022-05-25", 0.403], ["2022-05-26", 0.395], ["2022-05-26", 0.389], ["2022-05-27", 0.386], ["2022-05-28", 0.382], ["2022-05-28", 0.377], ["2022-05-30", 0.372], ["2022-05-30", 0.358], ["2022-05-31", 0.355], ["2022-06-01", 0.347], ["2022-06-01", 0.347], ["2022-06-02", 0.345], ["2022-06-02", 0.346], ["2022-06-04", 0.343], ["2022-06-04", 0.343], ["2022-06-05", 0.341], ["2022-06-05", 0.342], ["2022-06-06", 0.343], ["2022-06-06", 0.345], ["2022-06-07", 0.343], ["2022-06-08", 0.343], ["2022-06-08", 0.341], ["2022-06-09", 0.333], ["2022-06-09", 0.332], ["2022-06-09", 0.33], ["2022-06-10", 0.329], ["2022-06-11", 0.329], ["2022-06-12", 0.329], ["2022-06-12", 0.334], ["2022-06-14", 0.334], ["2022-06-14", 0.334], ["2022-06-15", 0.343], ["2022-06-15", 0.343], ["2022-06-16", 0.345], ["2022-06-17", 0.352], ["2022-06-17", 0.352], ["2022-06-18", 0.35], ["2022-06-19", 0.35], ["2022-06-19", 0.35], ["2022-06-20", 0.352], ["2022-06-21", 0.352], ["2022-06-21", 0.353], ["2022-06-22", 0.351], ["2022-06-23", 0.369], ["2022-06-23", 0.403], ["2022-06-24", 0.413], ["2022-06-24", 0.415], ["2022-06-25", 0.415], ["2022-06-25", 0.405], ["2022-06-26", 0.392], ["2022-06-27", 0.387], ["2022-06-27", 0.386], ["2022-06-27", 0.381], ["2022-06-28", 0.375], ["2022-06-29", 0.374], ["2022-06-30", 0.377], ["2022-06-30", 0.38], ["2022-07-01", 0.381], ["2022-07-01", 0.392], ["2022-07-02", 0.396], ["2022-07-02", 0.4], ["2022-07-03", 0.4], ["2022-07-03", 0.397], ["2022-07-04", 0.399], ["2022-07-05", 0.399], ["2022-07-05", 0.399], ["2022-07-06", 0.396], ["2022-07-07", 0.4], ["2022-07-07", 0.4], ["2022-07-08", 0.401], ["2022-07-09", 0.4], ["2022-07-09", 0.401], ["2022-07-10", 0.401], ["2022-07-11", 0.403], ["2022-07-11", 0.403], ["2022-07-11", 0.403], ["2022-07-12", 0.403], ["2022-07-13", 0.404], ["2022-07-13", 0.405], ["2022-07-14", 0.405], ["2022-07-15", 0.414], ["2022-07-15", 0.417], ["2022-07-16", 0.42], ["2022-07-17", 0.421], ["2022-07-18", 0.421], ["2022-07-18", 0.421], ["2022-07-20", 0.422], ["2022-07-20", 0.422], ["2022-07-21", 0.424], ["2022-07-22", 0.425], ["2022-07-23", 0.425], ["2022-07-23", 0.433]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10977/ | Dozens of reported cases of monkeypox have been reported outside of areas in sub-Saharan Africa (namely, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Cameroon, and Democratic Republic of Congo) in which it is endemic. As of 12PM EST on 19 May, there are 75 confirmed or suspected monkeypox cases across the UK, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Italy, and the US according to a spreadsheet maintained by Global.health. According to a 19 May report by the the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, many of these cases are likely the result of community transmission since many do not appear to be linked to travel:
Given the unusually high frequency of human-to-human transmission observed in this event, and the probable community transmission without history of traveling to endemic areas, the likelihood of further spread of the virus through close contact, for example during sexual activities, is considered to be high. The likelihood of transmission between individuals without close contact is considered to be low.
Monkeypox is closely related to but distinct from smallpox. Smallpox was eradicated in 1980. The first case of monkeypox was diagnosed in 1970 and in recent years the frequency and geographic distribution has increased in Central Africa and West Africa. A recent systematic review finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of "global relevance." The same article also reports a pooled case fatality rate estimate of 8.7%, with a point estimate of 10.6% for the Central African clade and 3.6% for the West African clade. As of 18 May, all sequenced monkeypox cases seem to be of the West African clade according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Prior to the ongoing 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported and suspected monkeypox cases were thought to be the result of animal-to-human transmission rather than human-to-human transmission. The secondary attack rate (SAR) estimates of monkeypox pre-2022 are consistent with this — according to the aforementioned systematic review article, which reviewed 16 articles with SAR estimates:
More than half of the articles (9/16) reported an SAR of 0%, and this spanned the decades from the 1970s through 2010–2019. Similarly, over those same five decades, the SAR ranged from 0.3–10.2% in 6/16 articles . In the remaining article, a median SAR of 50% was reported in an outbreak among 16 households.
However, monkeypox now seems to be spreading as a result of close contact between humans, perhaps in particular during sexual activities.
Under the 2005 International Health Regulations, WHO has the power to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an “extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”.
Since 2009, WHO has made six PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the 30 January 2020 PHEIC declaration of COVID-19. | Healthcare & Biology | This will resolve on the basis of whether, before 2023, WHO declares that the spread of monkeypox constitutes a PHEIC.
Also see this question on the date of the next PHEIC declaration of any kind.
Fine Print
It is unlikely but possible that monkeypox will fall under the WHO's smallpox categorization, which means there will not be a PHEIC declaration since smallpox is automatically considered a PHEIC and thus do not require an IHR decision to declare them as such. If this is the case, this question will resolve ambiguously. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-20 | 2022-05-19 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8871/confirmed-global-covid-19-deaths-by-2023/", "https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/vaccines/index.html", "https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/whats-new.html", "https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-issues/fda-mpox-response#639c37589b530", "https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html"] | binary | [["2022-05-19", 0.25], ["2022-05-21", 0.228], ["2022-05-23", 0.214], ["2022-05-24", 0.212], ["2022-05-26", 0.217], ["2022-05-27", 0.217], ["2022-05-29", 0.218], ["2022-06-01", 0.219], ["2022-06-02", 0.219], ["2022-06-04", 0.217], ["2022-06-05", 0.216], ["2022-06-07", 0.213], ["2022-06-11", 0.213], ["2022-06-12", 0.211], ["2022-06-14", 0.21], ["2022-06-16", 0.211], ["2022-06-18", 0.207], ["2022-06-19", 0.204], ["2022-06-21", 0.196], ["2022-06-23", 0.196], ["2022-06-24", 0.196], ["2022-06-26", 0.194], ["2022-06-27", 0.194], ["2022-06-29", 0.197], ["2022-07-01", 0.201], ["2022-07-02", 0.205], ["2022-07-04", 0.205], ["2022-07-05", 0.205], ["2022-07-07", 0.205], ["2022-07-10", 0.207], ["2022-07-12", 0.207], ["2022-07-15", 0.209], ["2022-07-18", 0.209], ["2022-07-20", 0.211], ["2022-07-21", 0.211], ["2022-07-23", 0.212], ["2022-07-24", 0.212], ["2022-07-26", 0.212], ["2022-07-28", 0.209], ["2022-07-30", 0.212], ["2022-08-01", 0.213], ["2022-08-05", 0.213], ["2022-08-06", 0.214], ["2022-08-15", 0.213], ["2022-08-18", 0.213], ["2022-08-26", 0.214], ["2022-08-28", 0.209], ["2022-08-31", 0.209], ["2022-09-01", 0.209], ["2022-09-03", 0.209], ["2022-09-05", 0.209], ["2022-09-09", 0.208], ["2022-09-14", 0.208], ["2022-09-17", 0.208], ["2022-09-18", 0.208], ["2022-09-22", 0.207], ["2022-09-23", 0.205], ["2022-09-24", 0.205], ["2022-09-26", 0.205], ["2022-09-28", 0.206], ["2022-09-30", 0.196], ["2022-10-02", 0.193], ["2022-10-04", 0.193], ["2022-10-10", 0.193], ["2022-10-11", 0.192], ["2022-10-14", 0.191], ["2022-10-16", 0.191], ["2022-10-22", 0.187], ["2022-10-24", 0.186], ["2022-10-28", 0.184], ["2022-10-30", 0.181], ["2022-11-01", 0.177], ["2022-11-03", 0.177], ["2022-11-06", 0.175], ["2022-11-07", 0.173], ["2022-11-10", 0.171], ["2022-11-12", 0.17], ["2022-11-14", 0.169], ["2022-11-14", 0.169], ["2022-11-17", 0.165], ["2022-11-19", 0.164], ["2022-11-21", 0.165], ["2022-11-23", 0.163], ["2022-11-25", 0.16], ["2022-11-27", 0.157], ["2022-11-30", 0.157], ["2022-12-02", 0.156], ["2022-12-02", 0.155], ["2022-12-04", 0.152], ["2022-12-06", 0.151], ["2022-12-10", 0.151], ["2022-12-13", 0.14], ["2022-12-14", 0.14], ["2022-12-16", 0.136], ["2022-12-17", 0.131], ["2022-12-20", 0.131], ["2022-12-21", 0.132], ["2022-12-24", 0.123], ["2022-12-27", 0.122], ["2022-12-30", 0.115], ["2022-12-31", 0.092]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10986/ | Recently, there have dozens of reported cases of monkeypox outside of areas in sub-Saharan Africa (namely, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Cameroon, and Democratic Republic of Congo) in which it is endemic. As of 12PM EST on 19 May, there are 75 confirmed or suspected monkeypox cases across the UK, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Italy, and the US. According to a 19 May report by the the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, many of these cases are likely the result of community transmission since many do not appear to be linked to travel:
Given the unusually high frequency of human-to-human transmission observed in this event, and the probable community transmission without history of traveling to endemic areas, the likelihood of further spread of the virus through close contact, for example during sexual activities, is considered to be high. The likelihood of transmission between individuals without close contact is considered to be low.
Monkeypox is closely related to but distinct from smallpox, which was eradicated in 1980. The first case of monkeypox was diagnosed in in 1970 and in recent years the frequency and geographic distribution has increased in Central Africa and West Africa. A recent systematic review finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of "global relevance." The same article also reports a pooled case fatality rate estimate of 8.7%, with a point estimate of 10.6% for the Central African clade and 3.6% for the West African clade. As of 18 May, all sequenced monkeypox cases seem to be of the West African clade according to WHO. Prior to the ongoing 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported and suspected monkeypox cases were thought to be the result of animal-to-human transmission rather than human-to-human transmission. The secondary attack rate estimates of monkeypox pre-2022 are consistent with this — according to the aforementioned systematic review article:
More than half of the articles (9/16) reported an SAR of 0%, and this spanned the decades from the 1970s through 2010–2019. Similarly, over those same five decades, the SAR ranged from 0.3–10.2% in 6/16 articles . In the remaining article, a median SAR of 50% was reported in an outbreak among 16 households.
However, monkeypox now seems to be spreading as a result of close contact between humans, perhaps in particular during sexual activities.
ACAM200 and JYNNEOSTM (Imvanex) are two currently-authorized vaccines in the United States to prevent smallpox, and JYNNEOS (Imvanex) is also authorized specifically to prevent monkeypox . Effectiveness against monkeypox is thought to be about 85%. The FDA approved JYNNEOS (Imvanex) in 2019 for "the prevention of smallpox and monkeypox disease in adults 18 years of age and older determined to be at high risk for smallpox or monkeypox infection.".
As of 19 May, the UK is offering Imvanex to healthcare workers at high-risk. As of 19 May, the US is not yet expanded the population to which it is offering a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine. | Healthcare & Biology | This resolves positively if the U.S. CDC recommends that groups constituting at least 10% of Americans receive a vaccine intended for protection against monkeypox.
Note that there are about 22M healthcare workers in the US, which is about 6.7% of the overall US population of 330M. Thus, a CDC recommendation for all healthcare workers would not on its own be sufficient for positive resolution.
Fine Print
Previous resolution criteria
This question will resolve on the basis of whether the U.S. FDA authorizes use of a vaccine against monkeypox before 2023, and the group(s) it authorizes this for constitute at least 10% of the U.S. population.
Note that there are about 22M healthcare workers in the US, which is about 6.7% of the overall US population of 330M. Thus, a FDA authorization for all healthcare workers would not on its own be sufficient for positive resolution. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-09 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.98], ["2022-05-28", 0.977], ["2022-05-29", 0.977], ["2022-05-29", 0.878], ["2022-05-29", 0.878], ["2022-05-29", 0.864], ["2022-05-29", 0.862], ["2022-05-29", 0.862], ["2022-05-29", 0.862], ["2022-05-30", 0.846], ["2022-05-30", 0.846], ["2022-05-30", 0.837], ["2022-05-30", 0.837], ["2022-05-31", 0.821], ["2022-05-31", 0.811], ["2022-05-31", 0.803], ["2022-05-31", 0.803], ["2022-05-31", 0.801], ["2022-05-31", 0.789], ["2022-05-31", 0.789], ["2022-05-31", 0.792], ["2022-05-31", 0.793], ["2022-05-31", 0.793], ["2022-05-31", 0.794], ["2022-06-01", 0.776], ["2022-06-01", 0.785], ["2022-06-04", 0.785], ["2022-06-07", 0.8], ["2022-06-07", 0.8], ["2022-06-08", 0.799], ["2022-06-08", 0.804], ["2022-06-08", 0.804], ["2022-06-09", 0.811], ["2022-06-09", 0.811], ["2022-06-09", 0.814], ["2022-06-10", 0.815], ["2022-06-10", 0.817], ["2022-06-10", 0.817], ["2022-06-10", 0.82]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10989/ | The Prime Minister of the French Republic is nominated at the discretion of the President of France. But since the National Assembly has the power to dismiss the government, in practice the President has to choose a Prime Minister able to command a majority.
France re-elected Emmanuel Macron to the Presidency on the 24th of April 2022. His coalition (named Ensemble) has a majority in the National Assembly, and he nominated Élisabeth Borne to be Prime Minister on the 16th of May.
On the 12th and 19th of June 2022, France will hold legislative elections, electing all 577 members of the National Assembly. If the Ensemble coalition no longer has a majority, the President will be forced to nominate a new Prime Minister.
According to polls the most likely contenders are:
Élisabeth Borne
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Marine Le Pen | Politics & Governance | To leave some time for politics to happen, we ask who the Prime Minister will be on July 10, 2022. The option below bearing the name of the Prime Minister on that date will resolve positive, all others will resolve negative. If the options don't include the Prime Minister, they all resolve negative. We deliberately omit an "other" option, so we can add more options later | true | 2022-06-10 | Will Élisabeth Borne be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-07-09 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-29", 0.125], ["2022-05-29", 0.125], ["2022-05-29", 0.106], ["2022-05-30", 0.097], ["2022-05-30", 0.09], ["2022-05-30", 0.131], ["2022-05-31", 0.118], ["2022-05-31", 0.122], ["2022-05-31", 0.121], ["2022-05-31", 0.117], ["2022-05-31", 0.117], ["2022-06-01", 0.127], ["2022-06-01", 0.125], ["2022-06-04", 0.129], ["2022-06-04", 0.119], ["2022-06-07", 0.119], ["2022-06-07", 0.107], ["2022-06-07", 0.107], ["2022-06-08", 0.105], ["2022-06-09", 0.105], ["2022-06-09", 0.105], ["2022-06-10", 0.092], ["2022-06-10", 0.088], ["2022-06-10", 0.098], ["2022-06-10", 0.099], ["2022-06-10", 0.098], ["2022-06-10", 0.099]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10990/ | The Prime Minister of the French Republic is nominated at the discretion of the President of France. But since the National Assembly has the power to dismiss the government, in practice the President has to choose a Prime Minister able to command a majority.
France re-elected Emmanuel Macron to the Presidency on the 24th of April 2022. His coalition (named Ensemble) has a majority in the National Assembly, and he nominated Élisabeth Borne to be Prime Minister on the 16th of May.
On the 12th and 19th of June 2022, France will hold legislative elections, electing all 577 members of the National Assembly. If the Ensemble coalition no longer has a majority, the President will be forced to nominate a new Prime Minister.
According to polls the most likely contenders are:
Élisabeth Borne
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Marine Le Pen | Politics & Governance | To leave some time for politics to happen, we ask who the Prime Minister will be on July 10, 2022. The option below bearing the name of the Prime Minister on that date will resolve positive, all others will resolve negative. If the options don't include the Prime Minister, they all resolve negative. We deliberately omit an "other" option, so we can add more options later | true | 2022-06-10 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-09 | 2022-05-20 | [] | binary | [["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-28", 0.01], ["2022-05-29", 0.125], ["2022-05-29", 0.128], ["2022-05-29", 0.112], ["2022-05-29", 0.106], ["2022-05-30", 0.09], ["2022-05-30", 0.079], ["2022-05-30", 0.07], ["2022-05-31", 0.063], ["2022-05-31", 0.057], ["2022-05-31", 0.066], ["2022-06-01", 0.065], ["2022-06-04", 0.068], ["2022-06-04", 0.063], ["2022-06-07", 0.063], ["2022-06-07", 0.059], ["2022-06-07", 0.056], ["2022-06-08", 0.053], ["2022-06-10", 0.043], ["2022-06-10", 0.041]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/10991/ | The Prime Minister of the French Republic is nominated at the discretion of the President of France. But since the National Assembly has the power to dismiss the government, in practice the President has to choose a Prime Minister able to command a majority.
France re-elected Emmanuel Macron to the Presidency on the 24th of April 2022. His coalition (named Ensemble) has a majority in the National Assembly, and he nominated Élisabeth Borne to be Prime Minister on the 16th of May.
On the 12th and 19th of June 2022, France will hold legislative elections, electing all 577 members of the National Assembly. If the Ensemble coalition no longer has a majority, the President will be forced to nominate a new Prime Minister.
According to polls the most likely contenders are:
Élisabeth Borne
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Marine Le Pen | Politics & Governance | To leave some time for politics to happen, we ask who the Prime Minister will be on July 10, 2022. The option below bearing the name of the Prime Minister on that date will resolve positive, all others will resolve negative. If the options don't include the Prime Minister, they all resolve negative. We deliberately omit an "other" option, so we can add more options later | true | 2022-06-10 | Will Marine Le Pen be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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