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2017-12-08 | 2017-11-28 | ["https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/12/02/new-england-election-landslide-win-expected-joyce-polls-open", "http://www.aec.gov.au/new-england/counting-process.htm", "http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21364-135.htm"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.75], ["2017-11-29", 0.725], ["2017-11-29", 0.79], ["2017-11-29", 0.865], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.985], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.985], ["2017-11-30", 0.985], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 0.995], ["2017-11-30", 1.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 1.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.995], ["2017-12-01", 0.985], ["2017-12-01", 0.985], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-01", 0.99], ["2017-12-02", 0.99], ["2017-12-02", 0.99]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/772 | Australia's former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is running in a by-election scheduled for 2 December 2017, a race which may determine which party holds the majority in Australia's House of Representatives (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/world/australia/citizenship-ruling.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/5021322/whos-in-out-and-on-the-fence-for-the-new-england-by-election/"target="_blank">Northern Daily Leader</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Barnaby Joyce <a href = "http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2017/12/06/joyce-sworn-back-in-after-by-election.html"target="_blank">won the by-election</a>. This question closed as "Yes."
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-02 | Will Barnaby Joyce win the upcoming by-election in New England, Australia? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-11-28 | ["http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-992f-Latin-America-rejects-threats-to-Venezuela", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/calendar/?dateFrom=&dateTo=&filters=2025", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/11/13/venezuela-eu-adopts-conclusions-and-targeted-sanctions/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-eu/eu-readies-sanctions-on-venezuela-approves-arms-embargo-idUSKBN1DD0UN?il=0", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2018/01/22/", "https://europeansanctions.com/category/venezuela/", "http://consilium.europa.eu/en/search/?filetypes=PAGE&Keyword=venezuela", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/advances-no-deal-venezuela-rivals-talk-005656394.html"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.005], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], 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["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/753 | On November 13, 2017, foreign ministers of the European Union (EU) established the legal basis for imposing sanctions on Venezuelan government officials in order to pressure the Venezuelan government to strengthen the rule of law and legitimate democratic elections (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/world/americas/venezuela-embargo-european-union.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FVenezuela&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=collection"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) Question will resolve as “yes” if credible media or the EU report that the EU is imposing a travel ban or seizing the assets of a Venezuelan government official, including but not limited to President Maduro, during the relevant time period.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-31 | Will the European Union announce the imposition of a travel ban or seizure of assets of a Venezuelan government official between 30 November and 31 December? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-12-11 | 2017-11-28 | ["http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/30/rescue-mission-for-argentine-submarine-crew-ends-search-for-sub-continues.html", "https://news.usni.org/2017/11/30/search-ended-for-missing-argentine-sub-survivors?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=c5c313aebc-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-c5c313aebc-231045397&mc_cid=c5c313aebc&mc_eid=2394c94b5b", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/us-russia-ships-join-search-missing-argentine-51570691", "https://uk.news.yahoo.com/hopes-finding-missing-argentine-submarine-104400022.html", "https://www.voanews.com/a/search-argentine-sub/4143020.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/argentina-chasing-lead-search-missing-submarine-51535765", "https://news.usni.org/2017/11/29/water-entered-missing-argentine-sub-snorkel-detected-explosion?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=17bd234f41-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-17bd234f41-231045397&mc_cid=17bd234f41&mc_eid=2394c94b5b", "https://www.rt.com/newsline/412075-russian-yantar-argentine-submarine/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqDqvKYDv9M", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42187139"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.75], ["2017-11-29", 0.85], ["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.4], ["2017-11-29", 0.325], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.465], ["2017-11-30", 0.79], ["2017-11-30", 0.68], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.04], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.025], ["2017-11-30", 0.1], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.005], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-02", 0.015], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.04], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.045], ["2017-12-02", 0.045], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.02], ["2017-12-02", 0.015], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.005], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.01], ["2017-12-06", 0.01], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/759 | On November 23, 2017, the Argentinian Navy confirmed that its missing submarine, the San Juan, had experienced an explosion near the location of its last contact. (<a href = "http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-argentina-missing-submarine-20171123-story.html"target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-submarine/water-entered-missing-argentine-subs-snorkel-causing-short-circuit-idUSKBN1DR2B3?il=0"target="_blank">Reuters</a>) Question will resolve as "yes" if (a) credible media report that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located OR (b) there is an announcement or confirmation by the Argentinian government that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-08 | Will the location of the missing Argentinian submarine be determined before 8 December 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-04 | 2017-11-28 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-germany/france-germany-want-iran-to-reverse-ballistic-missile-program-idUSKBN1DY1MY", "http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/iran-missile-milestones-1985-2017", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42412729", "https://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/23/middleeast/iran-ballistic-missile-test/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-arms/in-first-u-s-presents-its-evidence-of-iran-weaponry-from-yemen-idUSKBN1E82J6"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-29", 0.09], ["2017-11-29", 0.18], ["2017-11-30", 0.18], ["2017-11-30", 0.17], ["2017-11-30", 0.155], ["2017-11-30", 0.08], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-01", 0.01], 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0.005], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/771 | The Trump administration declined to certify the Iranian nuclear deal, citing concerns about Iran's missile program (<a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/iran-deal-trump-next/542379/"target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-diplomacy/iran-open-to-talks-over-its-ballistic-missile-programme-sources-idUSKBN1CB22P"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Examples of previous launches include the September 2017 and March 2016 ballistic missile tests (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/23/middleeast/iran-ballistic-missile-test/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35752974"target="_blank">BBC</a>) and the July 2017 satellite launch (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-satellite/u-s-says-iran-rocket-test-breaches-u-n-resolution-idUSKBN1AC1YY"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). For more information on ballistic missiles of various ranges see <a href = "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles"target="_blank">Arms Control</a>.
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<hr>
Iran did not launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017.
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<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-29 | Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-11-29 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/12/ukraine-on-the-front-line-of-europes-forgotten-war"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.165], ["2017-11-29", 0.44], ["2017-11-30", 0.11], ["2017-11-30", 0.11], ["2017-11-30", 0.08], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.015], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-03", 0.015], ["2017-12-03", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.03], ["2017-12-04", 0.03], ["2017-12-04", 0.03], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.02], ["2017-12-04", 0.03], ["2017-12-04", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], 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0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/796 | On November 23, 2017, five (5) Ukrainian servicemen were killed in a military clash (<a href = "https://frontnews.eu/news/en/18177/Death-of-Ukrainian-military-in-Donbas-is-another-proof-of-tragic-consequences-of-Russian-aggression-Tusk"target="blank">Front News</a>). Question will resolve as "yes" if credible media report that 15 or more Ukrainian military personnel (to include contractors or civilian employees of the military) were killed on any single day in December 2017.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-31 | Will there be any single day in December 2017 during which 15 or more Ukrainian military personnel are killed? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2017-11-29 | ["https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=36338", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-gas/qatar-wont-cut-gas-to-uae-qatar-petroleum-ceo-idUSKBN1990Q2", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes", "http://welcomeqatar.com/articles/qatar-gulf-crisis-questions-answered-3/", "http://m.lngworldnews.com/#newsitem-207716", "https://www.reuters.com/article/bolivia-gas-qatar/qatari-energy-minister-sees-oversupply-of-lng-in-coming-years-idUSL1N1NS0QR", "https://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/21/12/2017/Qatargas-and-OMV-sign-5-year-LNG-agreement"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.07], ["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], 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["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/800 | If the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and its neighbors escalates, the supply and distribution of Qatari natural gas could be disrupted (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-09/qatari-lng-diversions-shock-eu-gas-traders-as-crisis-intensifies"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/story/ADIPEC_2017_Energy_sector_remains_neutral_in_Qatar_rift_says_Omani_oil_minister-ZAWYA20171114051426/"target="_blank">Zawya</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/qatar-says-it-s-fulfilling-oil-and-gas-deals-despite-gulf-crisis"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).
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<hr>
Qatar did not announce that it will cease to export natural gas to any country. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-31 | Before 1 January 2018, will Qatar announce that it will cease to export natural gas to any country? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-04 | 2017-11-29 | ["http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-12-20/Saudi-Arabia-slows-phasing-out-energy-subsidies-under-new-long-term-budget-plan.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/key-figures-in-saudi-arabia-s-2018-budget-2017-fiscal-data", "http://www.spa.gov.sa/viewstory.php?lang=en&newsid=1704324", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1217631/business-economy", "https://www.gazt.gov.sa/en/value-added-tax-vat", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/637763", "https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-finances/update-1-saudi-arabia-to-push-back-balanced-budget-goal-to-2023-sources-say-idUSL8N1N84M7", "http://www.eyeofriyadh.com/news/details/schneider-electric-renews-mou-with-national-grid-saudi-arabia-to-increase-electricity-reliability", "http://www.eyeofriyadh.com/news/category/environment-energy", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-energy-prices/saudi-arabia-to-raise-energy-prices-pay-cash-to-poorer-citizens-idUSKBN1E62GY", "http://www.meim.gov.sa/arabic/mediacenter/press-releases/Pages/default.aspx", "http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/article/524490/SAUDI-ARABIA/SR978-billion-budget-unveiled", "http://www.spa.gov.sa/viewstory.php?lang=en&newsid=1700594", "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/01/saudi-arabia-hikes-gasoline-prices.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/saudis-are-said-to-plan-80-gasoline-price-increase-in-january", "https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwiHrcK3hqvYAhVF2qQKHa8JAWMQFggpMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fthesis.eur.nl%2Fpub%2F14962%2FDijkstra-J.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0uMgxKBKnyXmglhBueO2LA", "http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/525180/SAUDI-ARABIA/Saudi-Arabia-hikes-fuel-price", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/saudi-arabia-slows-pace-of-energy-subsidy-cuts-to-boost-economy", "http://www.eyeofriyadh.com/news/index.php?cat=environment-energy&page=2&ipp=10", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1217656/saudi-arabia", "https://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-stocks/mideast-stocks-saudi-shares-fall-after-gasoline-price-hike-idUSL8N1OW0C8", "https://www.rt.com/business/327283-saudi-arabia-increase-gasoline/", "https://www.thenational.ae/business/saudi-arabia-raises-fuel-price-66-per-cent-amid-big-subsidy-shake-up-1.107206", "http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/article/524053/BUSINESS/Gasoline-prices-to-be-reviewed-in-first-quarter-of-2018", "https://www.mof.gov.sa/en/budget/Documents/171228%20%20budget%20Statement%20eng%20Single.pdf"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.35], ["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.405], ["2017-11-29", 0.155], ["2017-11-29", 0.19], ["2017-11-29", 0.38], ["2017-11-30", 0.38], ["2017-11-30", 0.24], ["2017-11-30", 0.35], ["2017-11-30", 0.24], ["2017-11-30", 0.365], ["2017-11-30", 0.35], ["2017-11-30", 0.38], ["2017-11-30", 0.35], ["2017-12-01", 0.35], ["2017-12-01", 0.285], ["2017-12-01", 0.285], ["2017-12-01", 0.285], ["2017-12-01", 0.22], ["2017-12-02", 0.15], ["2017-12-02", 0.22], 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Raising the price of any octane level will count.
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<hr>
Saudi Arabia did not announce between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017 it was increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-29 | Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Saudi Arabia announce it is increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-11-29 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-journalists-un/u-n-denies-arrested-reuters-reporters-in-myanmar-had-given-it-information-idUSKBN1EF1K2", "http://time.com/5012779/security-council-myanmar-rohingya/", "https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sc13117.doc.htm", "http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_pv_8060.pdf"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.0], ["2017-11-29", 0.025], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.005], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], 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["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/798 | This question will resolve as "yes" if the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopts a resolution during the period of interest in which the country/region of interest appears in the short description in the Security Council Resolution table (<a href = "http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2017.shtml"target="_blank">UN</a>) and/or is mentioned within the adopted resolution itself.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning Myanmar by 31 December 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2017-12-12 | 2017-11-29 | ["https://twitter.com/Alpha_Miner/status/938509346601820160", "https://www.cnet.com/news/bitcoin-exchange-nicehash-loses-millions-to-hackers/", "http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/07/technology/nicehash-bitcoin-theft-hacking/index.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/27/technology/bitcoin-price-10000.html?emc=edit_mbe_20171128&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=77825025&te=1&_r=1", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/07/bitcoin-64m-cryptocurrency-stolen-hack-attack-marketplace-nicehash-passwords"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.01], ["2017-11-29", 0.08], ["2017-11-29", 0.04], ["2017-11-29", 0.075], ["2017-11-29", 0.405], ["2017-11-29", 0.66], ["2017-11-30", 0.66], ["2017-11-30", 0.335], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.0], ["2017-11-30", 0.005], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.05], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.05], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-02", 0.01], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.005], ["2017-12-04", 0.01], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/797 | On November 21, 2017, the company behind the Bitcoin cryptocurrency "tether" announced a hack resulting in a theft valued at $31,000,000 USD that was widely reported in the media (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/bitcoin-falls-after-31-million-theft-of-cryptocurrency-tether"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/21/bitcoin-rebounds-to-all-time-high-shrugs-off-cryptocurrency-hack.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media outlet (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports an additional, separate Bitcoin hacking event valued at $10,000,000 or more during the period of interest.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-06 | Will an individual hack of Bitcoin resulting in the theft of $10,000,000 USD or more occur in December 2017? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-01-02 | 2017-11-29 | ["http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/04/all-eyes-on-zimbabwe-as-new-cabinet-to-be-sworn-in", "http://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-national-byo-122064.html", "https://www.enca.com/africa/zimbabwes-opposition-insists-morgan-tsvangirai-will-be-countrys-next-leader", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42190457", "http://punchng.com/zimbabwe-mnangagwa-rewards-army-in-new-cabinet-shuns-opposition/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-politics/zimbabwe-swears-in-first-post-mugabe-cabinet-idUSKBN1DY1D1", "https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DP8aI8fX0AEW_cE.jpg", "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-11-22-iss-today-the-african-unions-chequered-history-with-military-coups/", "http://grandmotherafrica.com/west-african-reactions-on-the-invasion-of-the-gambia/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-abZaef-Xmc"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.5], ["2017-11-29", 0.25], ["2017-11-29", 0.4], ["2017-11-29", 0.65], ["2017-11-30", 0.475], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.2], ["2017-11-30", 0.22], ["2017-11-30", 0.21], ["2017-11-30", 0.21], ["2017-11-30", 0.31], ["2017-11-30", 0.275], ["2017-11-30", 0.25], ["2017-12-01", 0.15], ["2017-12-01", 0.11], ["2017-12-01", 0.055], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-01", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-02", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-03", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-04", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-05", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-06", 0.0], ["2017-12-07", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-11", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-12", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-13", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-14", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.0], ["2017-12-16", 0.005], ["2017-12-16", 0.005], ["2017-12-17", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.005], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-19", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.01], ["2017-12-20", 0.005], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-23", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.005], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-24", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.01], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-27", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/795 | Former Prime Minister Tsvangirai returned to Zimbabwe after President Mugabe was put under house arrest (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-19883387"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/882008/Morgan-Tsvangirai-who-is-Prime-Minister-Zimbabwe-Robert-Mugabe-opposition-leader-MDC"target="_blank">Daily Express</a>). Former Finance Minister Tendai Biti has discussed means of improving the economy under the new government (<a href = "https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/south-africa-would-suffer-the-effects-of-zimbabwes-implosion-tendai-biti-20171123"target="_blank">News 24</a>). Question will resolve as "yes" if the new Zimbabwean government announces or confirms media reports that either Morgan Tsvangirai or Tendai Biti was offered a position in the new Zimbabwean cabinet.
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-31 | Will the new Zimbabwean government offer opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai or ex-Finance Minister Tendai Biti a position in the post-coup government cabinet before 31 December 2017? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-03 | 2017-11-29 | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-piracy/somali-piracy-death-toll-rises-as-violence-worsens-idUSBRE85L08N20120622", "https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/asias-deadly-pirates/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42213513", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents"] | binary | [["2017-11-29", 0.05], ["2017-11-29", 0.2], ["2017-11-29", 0.225], ["2017-11-29", 0.14], ["2017-11-29", 0.02], ["2017-11-29", 0.03], ["2017-11-30", 0.05], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.035], ["2017-11-30", 0.015], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.01], ["2017-11-30", 0.02], ["2017-11-30", 0.04], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-01", 0.065], ["2017-12-01", 0.065], ["2017-12-01", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.025], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-02", 0.03], ["2017-12-03", 0.03], ["2017-12-03", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.025], ["2017-12-04", 0.025], ["2017-12-05", 0.025], ["2017-12-05", 0.025], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-05", 0.02], ["2017-12-06", 0.02], ["2017-12-06", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-07", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-08", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.02], ["2017-12-09", 0.025], ["2017-12-09", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.025], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-10", 0.03], ["2017-12-11", 0.04], ["2017-12-11", 0.04], ["2017-12-11", 0.045], ["2017-12-11", 0.045], ["2017-12-11", 0.045], ["2017-12-11", 0.035], ["2017-12-11", 0.04], ["2017-12-12", 0.04], ["2017-12-12", 0.04], ["2017-12-13", 0.04], ["2017-12-13", 0.03], ["2017-12-13", 0.03], ["2017-12-14", 0.03], ["2017-12-14", 0.03], ["2017-12-15", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.04], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-16", 0.04], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.03], ["2017-12-17", 0.03], ["2017-12-17", 0.03], ["2017-12-17", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.025], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.01], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-18", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-19", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-20", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-21", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.005], ["2017-12-22", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-23", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-24", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.0], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-25", 0.005], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-26", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.01], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.03], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-28", 0.03], ["2017-12-28", 0.03], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-28", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/799 | Examples of civilian sea vessels include, but are not limited to, cruise liners, fishing boats, and merchant ships (e.g., oil tankers). Recent studies indicate that civilian vessels are increasingly vulnerable to attacks by non-state actors (<a href = "http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/terrorists-on-the-ocean-sea-monsters-of-the-21st-century"target="_blank">Maritime Executive</a>, <a href = "http://www.marineinsight.com/marine-piracy-marine/10-maritime-piracy-affected-areas-around-the-world/"target="_blank">Marine Insight</a>,<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37561749"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
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<hr>
There was not an attack between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017 by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which resulted in at least three fatalities. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017.
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<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-29 | Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will there be an attack by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which results in at least three fatalities? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2018-04-02", 0.6], ["2018-04-03", 0.6], ["2018-04-04", 0.6], ["2018-04-04", 0.6], ["2018-04-04", 0.59], ["2018-04-04", 0.59], ["2018-04-05", 0.59], ["2018-04-05", 0.565], ["2018-04-05", 0.565], ["2018-04-05", 0.565], ["2018-04-06", 0.565], ["2018-04-06", 0.55], ["2018-04-07", 0.55], ["2018-04-07", 0.55], ["2018-04-09", 0.55], ["2018-04-10", 0.55], ["2018-04-11", 0.55], ["2018-04-12", 0.55], ["2018-04-13", 0.55], ["2018-04-14", 0.55], ["2018-04-16", 0.58], ["2018-04-16", 0.58], ["2018-04-17", 0.565], ["2018-04-17", 0.55], ["2018-04-17", 0.55]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/803 | In 2016, the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled that Microsoft did not have to comply with a warrant for records stored outside of the US, and the government appealed (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/united-states-v-microsoft-corp/"target="_blank">SCOUTS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-microsoft/u-s-supreme-court-to-decide-major-microsoft-email-privacy-fight-idUSKBN1CL20U"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
In United States v. Microsoft Corp, the Supreme Court did not rule that the government can use a warrant to compel the disclosure of records stored outside of the United States. This question closed as "b) No" with an end date of 17 April.
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<hr>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-17 | In United States v. Microsoft Corp, will the Supreme Court rule that the government can use a warrant to compel the disclosure of records stored outside of the United States?
| gjopen | 0 |
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["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/807 | There are concerns that the U.S. drone base near Agadez, Niger may draw the attention of violent extremists (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/a-city-in-niger-worries-a-new-us-drone-base-will-make-it-a-magnet-for-terrorists/2017/11/23/0b62fbf4-cef3-11e7-a87b-47f14b73162a_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>).
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<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2017-12-31 | Between 6 December and 31 December 2017, will there be an attack on the drone base near Agadez, Niger? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-01-09 | 2017-12-08 | ["https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/obama-public-option-health-care-225383", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/trump-signs-tax-government-spending-bills-into-law-idUSKBN1EG1T1", "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/943856675294982145", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-shutdown/congress-votes-to-avert-shutdown-sends-trump-stopgap-spending-bill-idUSKBN1EF1MZ", "https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/22/trump-signs-gop-tax-plan-short-term-government-funding-bill.html", "https://thinkprogress.org/flashback-obama-repeatedly-touted-public-option-before-refusing-to-push-for-it-in-the-final-hours-380cbf31b6e0/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/633603", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-to-vote-on-spending-bill-that-senate-wont-pass-rekindling-shutdown-showdown/2017/12/14/b2d27970-e0e9-11e7-bbd0-9dfb2e37492a_story.html?utm_term=.c4a894d6cf1d", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/20/us/politics/congress-spending-bill-shutdown-stopgap.html"] | binary | [["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.01], ["2017-12-08", 0.005], ["2017-12-08", 0.375], ["2017-12-08", 0.375], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-08", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.005], ["2017-12-09", 0.005], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.005], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.01], ["2017-12-09", 0.005], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-09", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.005], ["2017-12-10", 0.005], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], ["2017-12-10", 0.0], 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["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0], ["2018-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/811 | The last federal shutdown occurred in 2013 (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/01/us/politics/congress-shutdown-debate.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) and there may be a government shutdown this year (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-confronts-jam-packed-december-with-shutdown-deadline-looming/2017/11/26/2828d8ec-d2b0-11e7-95bf-df7c19270879_story.html"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/government-shutdown-101-why-they-happen-and-what-is-closed"target="_blank">The National Constitution Center</a>). A partial shutdown (e.g. <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/25/here-is-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-they-ended/?utm_term=.aaed9f0d046b"target="_blank">Washington Post</a>) will count.
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<hr>
Between 8 December 2017 and 1 January 2018, there was not a shutdown of the US federal government. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-01-01 | Between 8 December 2017 and 1 January 2018, will there be a shutdown of the US federal government? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-05-14 | 2017-12-08 | ["https://ballotpedia.org/Christie_v._NCAA?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyBrew", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/12/04/place-your-bets-on-federalism-thoughts-on-todays-oral-argument-in-christie-v-ncaa/?utm_term=.035c90652675", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling_in_New_Jersey", "http://www.gibsondunn.com/lawyers/tolson", "https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/nevnew/handicapping-the-supreme-court-votes-on-sports-betting-case", "https://www.legalsportsreport.com/16770/chrstie-vs-ncaa-sports-betting/", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/1987/94_orig", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/1991/91-543", "https://theconversation.com/is-the-legalization-of-sports-betting-in-the-us-inevitable-50280", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/665505"] | binary | [["2017-12-08", 0.4], ["2017-12-08", 0.55], ["2017-12-08", 0.775], ["2017-12-08", 0.925], ["2017-12-08", 0.775], ["2017-12-08", 0.675], ["2017-12-08", 0.65], 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["2018-04-05", 0.75], ["2018-04-05", 0.75], ["2018-04-06", 0.75], ["2018-04-07", 0.765], ["2018-04-07", 0.765], ["2018-04-09", 0.765], ["2018-04-10", 0.78], ["2018-04-15", 0.78], ["2018-04-16", 0.78], ["2018-04-19", 0.78], ["2018-04-21", 0.78], ["2018-04-25", 0.765], ["2018-04-26", 0.765], ["2018-04-27", 0.765], ["2018-04-30", 0.75], ["2018-05-01", 0.75], ["2018-05-06", 0.75], ["2018-05-12", 0.75], ["2018-05-12", 0.75], ["2018-05-13", 0.75], ["2018-05-14", 0.75]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/812 | <b>By a count of 7-2, the question closed with "Yes" with an end date of 14 May.
(<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-476_dbfi.pdf" target="_blank">SCOTUS</a>)</b>
In 2016, the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) prohibited the state of New Jersey from repealing certain laws regarding sports gambling (<a href = "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-new-jersey-sports-betting-20160809-story.html"target="_blank">The Chicago Tribune</a>). New Jersey appealed that decision to the Supreme Court, arguing that Congress does not have the authority to prohibit amendment or repeal of those laws (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/christie-v-national-collegiate-athletic-association-2/"target="-blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/will-supreme-court-open-a-dam-burst-of-legalized-sports-betting/2017/11/26/9f988aaa-cf9d-11e7-a1a3-0d1e45a6de3d_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-05-14 | In Murphy v. NCAA, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress cannot prohibit New Jersey from amending or repealing its existing prohibitions on sports gambling? | gjopen | 1 |
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"https://www.bnn.ca/canada-does-not-treat-us-right-trump-threatens-new-global-tax-1.996511", "https://www.bnn.ca/lighthizer-floats-idea-of-separate-nafta-deals-as-patience-with-canada-wanes-lawmaker-1.991327", "https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2018/january/closing-statement-ustr-robert", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-27/trump-said-to-not-plan-nafta-withdrawal-notice-in-state-of-union", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade/u-s-senators-express-optimism-about-nafta-after-trump-meeting-idUSKBN1FR33S", "https://www.ft.com/content/32c378f8-8bc9-11e7-9084-d0c17942ba93", "https://www.bnn.ca/trump-signs-report-contradicting-his-own-views-on-trade-canada-1.1011534", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/24/world/canada/canada-nafta-trade.html", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2018/01/22/the-nafta-withdrawal-threat-is-real/#7744422a6458", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/02/sanders-and-trump-agree-nafta-has-to-change-they-split-on-how-to-fix-it/?utm_term=.55e397b48099", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2018/01/22/the-nafta-withdrawal-threat-is-real/#6abe1b4d6458", "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-nafta-renegotiation-cancellation-1.4536871", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://maglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/mclarty-update-what-happens-when-or-if-the-us-withdraws-from-nafta-january-2018.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwirqKvx6ZPZAhXCwFkKHduZAdgQFjAAegQIDxAB&usg=AOvVaw3jmoQuNSJW1xGduQ6bRPFN", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-politics-nafta/canadas-pm-talks-tough-on-nafta-repeats-he-could-walk-away-idUSKBN1FM2VL", "http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/22/news/economy/nafta-round-6/index.html"] | binary | [["2017-12-12", 0.265], ["2017-12-12", 0.275], ["2017-12-13", 0.475], ["2017-12-13", 0.295], ["2017-12-13", 0.2], ["2017-12-14", 0.15], ["2017-12-15", 0.18], ["2017-12-15", 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withdrawing from NAFTA (<a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/06/news/economy/trump-nafta/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-14/kill-nafta-it-s-not-as-easy-as-trump-might-think-quicktake-q-a"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement"target="_blank">NAFTA Secretariat</a>). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, any party can withdraw six months after providing written notice (<a href = "https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Legal-Texts/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement?mvid=1&secid=d5a8ba07-1fb2-4f28-88d0-a8eac08611a2"target="_blank">NAFTA Secretariat</a>).
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Before 1 October 2018, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2017-12-15 | ["https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21718520-netherlands-more-risk-most-brexit-and-protectionism-retreat", "http://www.dw.com/en/italys-five-star-movement-feeds-on-voters-anger/a-42711560", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/667091", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/665603", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/27/world/europe/czech-election-milos-zeman.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2017/jan/20/theresa-may-brexit-migrants-housing-crisis", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/640877", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poland-eu-officials-improvement-ties-52932695", "http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/525268-oprahs-you-get-a-car", "https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21731663-break-up-coalition-talks-leads-country-uncharted-territory-break-up?zid=307&ah=5e80419d1bc9821ebe173f4f0f060a07", "http://www.beppegrillo.it/cerca-nel-blog/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39766334", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/01/farmers-brexit-wolf-sheep-voted-leave-eu-subsidy-tory-enemies", "https://www.politico.eu/article/dont-worry-about-nexit-well-maybe-just-a-bit-netherlands-elections-geert-wilders-dutch-mark-rutte/", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42841041", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/denmark/12032958/Denmarks-EU-referendum-is-a-blow-to-David-Cameron.html", "https://www.derstandard.de/story/2000072755783/italiens-fuenf-sterne-bewegung-verzichtet-auf-euro-referendum", "http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/05/how-contagious-will-austrias-politics-be-in-2018", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/lists/hipster-venues-in-shoreditch-that-will-make-you-despair/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-program-with-no-euro-referendum-idUSKBN1FB1LM", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/19/no-eu-exit-for-us-say-italys-on-the-rise-eurosceptics", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/915306/Brexit-news-Germany-Hans-Olaf-Henkel-UK-EU-European-Union", "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/feb/25/scotland-alexsalmond"] | binary | [["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.2], ["2017-12-16", 0.12], ["2017-12-16", 0.1], ["2017-12-16", 0.09], ["2017-12-16", 0.075], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.03], ["2017-12-20", 0.03], ["2017-12-22", 0.035], ["2017-12-23", 0.045], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-24", 0.085], ["2017-12-26", 0.1], ["2017-12-27", 0.1], ["2017-12-27", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-30", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.055], 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"http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums"target="_blank">European Union</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "No" on 12/31/2018. There was no other EU-exit referendum scheduled during the lifespan of the question.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Before 1 January 2019, will any other EU member state schedule a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2017-12-15 | ["http://www.inquirer.net/specials/exclusive-china-militarization-south-china-sea", "https://www.militarynews.com/news/national/us-navy-says-it-won-t-be-deterred-by-chinese/image_c1200e4d-943d-527f-ac5e-b9e4d31940f7.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/06/photos-beijings-militarisation-south-china-sea-philippines", "http://www.businessinsider.com/japans-first-f-35-gets-deployed-amid-china-threat-2018-2", "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/us-stakes-its-claim-arctic-frontier", "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-political-arctic/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43142538", "http://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-f-16-fighter-jets-rockets-tanks-and-attack-helicopters-stages-live-fire-795871", "https://thediplomat.com/2018/02/philippine-navy-deploys-japan-donated-tc-90-aircraft-to-scarborough-shoal-in-south-china-sea/", "https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/910938/china-japan-south-china-sea-russia-vladimir-putin-us-senkaku-islands-diaoyu-islands", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nE0mKpShJSU", "https://qz.com/1164824/2018-global-politics-forecast/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/16/admiral-warns-us-must-prepare-for-possibility-of-war-with-china", "https://www.sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-all-country-s-claims-on-the-arctic-seafloor", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/696721", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/navy-officer-us-bullied-china-china-sea-53161089", "https://www.economist.com/news/international/21636756-denmark-claims-north-pole-frozen-conflict", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Stuff", "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-challenging-dominance-u-s-south-china-sea-diplomat-says-n849296", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china/as-u-s-goes-quiet-on-close-naval-patrols-china-speaks-out-idUSKBN1FC0JK", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/02/02/why-is-china-buying-up-europes-ports/", "https://www.cfr.org/interactives/global-conflict-tracker?marker=4#!/conflict/tensions-in-the-east-china-sea", "https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/us-b-1b-bombers-fly-over-south-china-sea-drawing-chinese-protest/", "http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/photos-reveal-chinas-south-china-sea-island-fortresses-are-complete/news-story/776e1a695fb41ccb7e47a436594c1530"] | binary | [["2017-12-15", 0.1], ["2017-12-16", 0.2], ["2017-12-16", 0.075], ["2017-12-16", 0.085], ["2017-12-16", 0.15], ["2017-12-16", 0.11], ["2017-12-17", 0.1], ["2017-12-18", 0.03], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-20", 0.05], ["2017-12-21", 0.04], ["2017-12-22", 0.05], ["2017-12-23", 0.05], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-25", 0.05], ["2017-12-26", 0.09], ["2017-12-27", 0.1], ["2017-12-28", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.11], ["2017-12-30", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 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["2018-12-19", 0.1], ["2018-12-20", 0.1], ["2018-12-22", 0.1], ["2018-12-26", 0.1], ["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-30", 0.1], ["2018-12-31", 0.1], ["2019-01-01", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/818 | A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has been using People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some have been posing as fishermen (<a href = "http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2122601/combat-ready-plas-new-y-9-transport-planes-put-through"target="_blank">South China Morning Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-navy/china-navy-confirms-carrier-conducted-drills-in-south-china-sea-idUSKBN14N01D"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/16/little-blue-men-the-maritime-militias-pushing-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea"target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://chinapower.csis.org/maritime-forces-destabilizing-asia/"target="_blank">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a>, <a href = "https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/"target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a US-China confrontation during the timeframe of the question.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2017-12-15 | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-21vccBEZxM", "https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-withdraw-from-nuclear-deal-if-no-economic-benefit/29056526.html", "http://www.personalitypage.com/html/INTJ.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/816-what-will-be-the-daily-closing-spot-price-of-brent-crude-oil-usd-per-barrel-on-20-december-2017-according-to-the-u-s-eia", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1248371", "https://twitter.com/BattlesStudies/status/965936322715308033?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E3", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://stanford.edu/~knutson/nfc/mellers15.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjLpdGVs67ZAhXSyVMKHS81Cx4QFjAAegQIExAB&usg=AOvVaw3BAzYyDRLGEv4VY74lKtj5", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43114312", "https://www.debka.com/200-russian-advisers-killed-last-weeks-clash-us-forces-syria/", "https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2018/2/19/iran-to-recover-war-losses-by-exploiting-syrias-resources", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43146042", "https://www.rferl.org/a/syria-russia-severl-dozen-killed-idlib/29050568.html", "https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/Geopolitical%2520Risks.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwip55renq_ZAhWH0FMKHYg_AmU4ChAWMAB6BAgREAE&usg=AOvVaw25PE4TILB4h35H_-9m9cMj", "https://astutenews.com/2018/02/19/wagner-in-syria-is-the-iranian-tail-trying-to-wag-the-russian-american-dog/", "http://www.futuresmag.com/2016/01/15/it%E2%80%99s-not-just-what-you-forecast-it%E2%80%99s-how-you-forecast", "http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=10826", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/world/middleeast/iran-syria-israel.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news", "https://stanford.edu/~knutson/nfc/mellers15.pdf", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43121547", "http://www.newsweek.com/iran-most-famous-general-more-popular-president-new-threats-home-abroad-813803", "https://memegenerator.net/instance/63558376/varg-vikernes-coincidence-i-dont-think-so", "https://twitter.com/IbnSiqilli/status/961795478068301824?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E3", "http://statusmind.com/clever-facebook-status-2570/", "https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/feb/18/the-new-great-game-in-syria/", "https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/Geopolitical%20Risks.pdf"] | binary | [["2017-12-15", 0.03], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-16", 0.15], ["2017-12-16", 0.15], ["2017-12-16", 0.11], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.04], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.04], ["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.02], ["2017-12-21", 0.02], ["2017-12-22", 0.025], ["2017-12-24", 0.04], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-25", 0.05], ["2017-12-26", 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["2018-09-26", 0.09], ["2018-09-28", 0.09], ["2018-09-30", 0.09], ["2018-09-30", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-04", 0.09], ["2018-10-05", 0.09], ["2018-10-07", 0.085], ["2018-10-08", 0.08], ["2018-10-10", 0.08], ["2018-10-12", 0.08], ["2018-10-14", 0.08], ["2018-10-14", 0.08], ["2018-10-14", 0.08], ["2018-10-15", 0.08], ["2018-10-17", 0.08], ["2018-10-18", 0.08], ["2018-10-20", 0.08], ["2018-10-21", 0.08], ["2018-10-23", 0.08], ["2018-10-24", 0.08], ["2018-10-28", 0.08], ["2018-10-30", 0.08], ["2018-11-01", 0.08], ["2018-11-02", 0.07], ["2018-11-04", 0.07], ["2018-11-06", 0.07], ["2018-11-07", 0.07], ["2018-11-08", 0.07], ["2018-11-10", 0.07], ["2018-11-13", 0.07], ["2018-11-15", 0.07], ["2018-11-18", 0.07], ["2018-11-21", 0.07], ["2018-11-24", 0.065], ["2018-11-26", 0.06], ["2018-11-28", 0.06], ["2018-11-30", 0.06], ["2018-11-30", 0.05], ["2018-12-02", 0.05], ["2018-12-04", 0.05], ["2018-12-05", 0.05], ["2018-12-07", 0.05], ["2018-12-09", 0.05], ["2018-12-10", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-14", 0.05], ["2018-12-17", 0.05], ["2018-12-19", 0.05], ["2018-12-20", 0.05], ["2018-12-22", 0.05], ["2018-12-25", 0.05], ["2018-12-27", 0.05], ["2018-12-29", 0.05], ["2018-12-30", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2019-01-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/819 | A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Quds and Basij (<a href = "http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/revolutionary-guards"target="-blank">The Iran Primer</a>, <a href = "https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/irans-revolutionary-guards"target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href = "http://www.mei.edu/content/io/increasing-role-iran-s-basij-force-syria-war"target="_blank">Middle East Institute</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a confrontation between the US and Iran over the duration of this question.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2017-12-15 | ["https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2018/02/14/controls-syria-al-assad-family-inner-circle-tycoons/", "https://www.cnn.com/2012/12/06/world/meast/bashar-al-assad---fast-facts/index.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/674689", "https://syria.liveuamap.com/", "https://www.albawaba.com/news/original-a-leader-without-a-people-some-syrian-alawites-want-to-overthrow-assad--1075092", "http://summitlake.com/wp_1commentary/?p=534", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/693786", "http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/21/europe/assad-putin-sochi/index.html", "https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2018/01/15/russia-and-us-engage-in-military-base-race-in-syria/", "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/16/russian-mercenaries-in-syria-buried-quietly-and-forgotten", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/putin-ally-said-to-be-in-touch-with-kremlin-assad-before-his-mercenaries-attacked-us-troops/2018/02/22/f4ef050c-1781-11e8-8b08-027a6ccb38eb_story.html?utm_term=.7cca7d7b4971", "https://sputniknews.com/russia/201802151061681322-gromov-afghanistan-soviet-war-myths/", "http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21735053-time-bashar-al-assads-side-regime-syria-closing-rebel?frsc=dg%7Ce", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/russia-exit-syria-vladimir-putin-military-tactical-move", "https://syriancivilwarmap.com/", "http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/15/politics/syria-army-threat-us-troops/index.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/assad-won-war-171101114949181.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Syrian_Civil_War_detailed_map", "http://time.com/5159869/war-syria-entered-dangerous-new-phase/", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/01/turkey-shift-assad-syria-war-end.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War", "https://order-order.com/2017/11/15/byline-outs-russian-troll-turns-glasgow-security-guard/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43107013", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war#Since_1945"] | binary | [["2017-12-15", 0.035], ["2017-12-16", 0.04], ["2017-12-16", 0.15], ["2017-12-16", 0.25], ["2017-12-16", 0.14], ["2017-12-16", 0.1], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-20", 0.05], ["2017-12-21", 0.03], ["2017-12-22", 0.04], ["2017-12-23", 0.04], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-24", 0.05], ["2017-12-25", 0.05], ["2017-12-26", 0.05], ["2017-12-27", 0.05], ["2017-12-28", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], 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["2018-11-29", 0.05], ["2018-11-30", 0.05], ["2018-12-02", 0.05], ["2018-12-05", 0.05], ["2018-12-08", 0.05], ["2018-12-10", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-15", 0.05], ["2018-12-17", 0.05], ["2018-12-19", 0.05], ["2018-12-21", 0.05], ["2018-12-24", 0.05], ["2018-12-28", 0.05], ["2018-12-30", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2019-01-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/821 | Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/10338256"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/21/europe/assad-putin-sochi/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
Bashar al Assad remained in power at the question's end date. This question closed as "No" on 12/31/2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | [] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.2], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-30", 0.03], ["2017-12-30", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.025], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.075], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.11], ["2017-12-31", 0.085], ["2017-12-31", 0.085], ["2018-01-01", 0.12], ["2018-01-01", 0.15], ["2018-01-01", 0.135], ["2018-01-01", 0.11], ["2018-01-01", 0.135], ["2018-01-01", 0.12], ["2018-01-01", 0.1], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], ["2018-01-02", 0.05], 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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/835 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
| gjopen | 0 |
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(<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
| gjopen | 0 |
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This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/dec/18/the-future-is-very-dark-central-african-republics-relentless-cycle-of-suffering", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13150040"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.6], ["2017-12-29", 0.575], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 0.06], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.45], ["2017-12-29", 0.45], ["2017-12-30", 0.06], ["2017-12-30", 0.23], ["2017-12-31", 0.23], ["2017-12-31", 0.055], ["2017-12-31", 0.2], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.075], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.245], ["2017-12-31", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.34], ["2018-01-01", 0.34], ["2018-01-01", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.345], ["2018-01-01", 0.27], ["2018-01-01", 0.14], ["2018-01-01", 0.1], ["2018-01-01", 0.08], ["2018-01-02", 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["2018-03-10", 0.06], ["2018-03-11", 0.06], ["2018-03-12", 0.06], ["2018-03-12", 0.06], ["2018-03-13", 0.06], ["2018-03-14", 0.06], ["2018-03-14", 0.06], ["2018-03-14", 0.09], ["2018-03-14", 0.09], ["2018-03-15", 0.09], ["2018-03-16", 0.09], ["2018-03-17", 0.09], ["2018-03-18", 0.075], ["2018-03-18", 0.055], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-21", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-24", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.055], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/837 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Central African Republic from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21736167-peacekeepers-are-no-substitute-competent-government-why-un-forces-are", "https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ml.html", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=58520"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-30", 0.075], ["2017-12-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.035], ["2017-12-31", 0.075], ["2017-12-31", 0.035], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.1], ["2017-12-31", 0.075], ["2017-12-31", 0.04], ["2017-12-31", 0.04], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], ["2018-01-01", 0.05], 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["2018-03-05", 0.05], ["2018-03-05", 0.05], ["2018-03-05", 0.05], ["2018-03-06", 0.05], ["2018-03-07", 0.05], ["2018-03-07", 0.05], ["2018-03-09", 0.05], ["2018-03-09", 0.05], ["2018-03-10", 0.05], ["2018-03-11", 0.05], ["2018-03-12", 0.045], ["2018-03-12", 0.045], ["2018-03-13", 0.045], ["2018-03-14", 0.045], ["2018-03-15", 0.045], ["2018-03-15", 0.045], ["2018-03-16", 0.045], ["2018-03-17", 0.045], ["2018-03-17", 0.045], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-18", 0.05], ["2018-03-19", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-20", 0.05], ["2018-03-21", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-24", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/834 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/investigate-killing-15-peacekeepers-drc-180106064338334.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/19/joseph-kabila-stopped-congolese-children-kasai-starvation-un?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21737027-how-stop-catastrophe-congo-sliding-back-bloodshed?frsc=dg%7Ce", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/thousands-congolese-flee-uganda-escape-surge-violence-180125101414719.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/23/congo-steps-up-deadly-crackdown-after-more-protests-against-kabila", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/25/congo-state-agents-murdered-hundreds-in-2017-says-un-report"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.75], ["2017-12-29", 0.85], ["2017-12-29", 0.5], ["2017-12-29", 0.035], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-30", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], 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0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-30", 0.15], ["2018-03-31", 0.15], ["2018-03-31", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/836 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
| gjopen | 0 |
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This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
| gjopen | 0 |
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"https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/23/refugees-die-starvation-illness-nigeria-camp-bama-boko-haram", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/27/cameroon-mass-forced-return-nigerian-refugees", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/nigeria-boko-haram/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42735414?ocid=socialflow_twitter", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42735414", "https://public.tableau.com/views/Africa-APeriodofUnrest1997-2017/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&:toolbar=no&:showVizHome=no", "http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/hunger-amplifies-infectious-diseases-millions-fleeing-violence-boko-haram", "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/nigeria", "https://www.crisis.acleddata.com/nigeria-september-2017-update/"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.175], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.055], ["2017-12-29", 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["2018-03-23", 0.15], ["2018-03-24", 0.15], ["2018-03-25", 0.15], ["2018-03-25", 0.15], ["2018-03-26", 0.15], ["2018-03-27", 0.13], ["2018-03-27", 0.13], ["2018-03-27", 0.13], ["2018-03-28", 0.13], ["2018-03-28", 0.13], ["2018-03-28", 0.13], ["2018-03-28", 0.13], ["2018-03-29", 0.14], ["2018-03-30", 0.14], ["2018-03-30", 0.14], ["2018-03-30", 0.125], ["2018-03-30", 0.125], ["2018-03-30", 0.125], ["2018-03-30", 0.125], ["2018-03-31", 0.1], ["2018-04-01", 0.1], ["2018-04-01", 0.1], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/832 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | [] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.225], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.025], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.095], ["2017-12-29", 0.095], ["2017-12-30", 0.07], ["2017-12-30", 0.025], ["2017-12-31", 0.025], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.125], ["2017-12-31", 0.2], ["2017-12-31", 0.2], ["2017-12-31", 0.225], ["2017-12-31", 0.25], ["2018-01-01", 0.225], ["2018-01-01", 0.2], ["2018-01-01", 0.15], ["2018-01-01", 0.125], ["2018-01-01", 0.125], ["2018-01-01", 0.125], ["2018-01-01", 0.15], ["2018-01-01", 0.15], ["2018-01-01", 0.1], ["2018-01-01", 0.125], ["2018-01-01", 0.125], ["2018-01-02", 0.1], 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0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/826 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/676069", "https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-12-20/after-1000-days-civil-war-yemen-violence-has-become-normalized", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/middleeast/yemen-nic-robertson-intl/index.html", "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/countries/yemen", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/yemen-worst-humanitarian-crisis-50-years-180105190332474.html", "http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57052", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/monitor-450-yemeni-civilians-killed-december-180117054027984.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/yemen-level-civil-war-171204162917355.html"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.8], ["2017-12-28", 0.525], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.15], ["2017-12-29", 0.5], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.09], ["2017-12-29", 0.37], ["2017-12-29", 0.22], ["2017-12-29", 0.5], ["2017-12-30", 0.5], 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["2018-03-20", 0.4], ["2018-03-21", 0.4], ["2018-03-21", 0.4], ["2018-03-22", 0.4], ["2018-03-22", 0.4], ["2018-03-23", 0.4], ["2018-03-23", 0.4], ["2018-03-23", 0.4], ["2018-03-24", 0.375], ["2018-03-25", 0.375], ["2018-03-25", 0.35], ["2018-03-25", 0.35], ["2018-03-25", 0.35], ["2018-03-26", 0.35], ["2018-03-26", 0.35], ["2018-03-27", 0.35], ["2018-03-27", 0.35], ["2018-03-28", 0.35], ["2018-03-28", 0.35], ["2018-03-28", 0.35], ["2018-03-29", 0.35], ["2018-03-29", 0.35], ["2018-03-29", 0.35], ["2018-03-30", 0.35], ["2018-03-30", 0.35], ["2018-03-30", 0.35], ["2018-03-30", 0.35], ["2018-03-30", 0.35], ["2018-03-31", 0.35], ["2018-03-31", 0.35], ["2018-04-01", 0.35], ["2018-04-01", 0.35], ["2018-04-01", 0.35], ["2018-04-01", 0.365], ["2018-04-01", 0.365]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/827 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/tens-thousands-killed-south-sudan-war-160303054110110.html", "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/south-sudan", "https://www.acleddata.com/data/", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/war-hit-children-sudan-risk-imminent-death-180119153838240.html"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.35], ["2017-12-29", 0.35], ["2017-12-29", 0.2], ["2017-12-29", 0.475], ["2017-12-29", 0.4], ["2017-12-29", 0.4], ["2017-12-29", 0.4], ["2017-12-29", 0.575], ["2017-12-29", 0.25], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-29", 0.3], ["2017-12-30", 0.5], ["2017-12-30", 0.5], ["2017-12-30", 0.5], ["2017-12-30", 0.325], ["2017-12-31", 0.325], ["2017-12-31", 0.375], ["2017-12-31", 0.26], ["2017-12-31", 0.26], ["2017-12-31", 0.3], ["2017-12-31", 0.15], ["2017-12-31", 0.225], ["2017-12-31", 0.335], ["2017-12-31", 0.42], ["2017-12-31", 0.47], ["2017-12-31", 0.47], ["2017-12-31", 0.42], ["2017-12-31", 0.56], ["2017-12-31", 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["2018-03-23", 0.25], ["2018-03-23", 0.25], ["2018-03-24", 0.25], ["2018-03-25", 0.25], ["2018-03-25", 0.25], ["2018-03-25", 0.25], ["2018-03-25", 0.25], ["2018-03-27", 0.25], ["2018-03-27", 0.25], ["2018-03-27", 0.25], ["2018-03-28", 0.25], ["2018-03-28", 0.25], ["2018-03-29", 0.25], ["2018-03-30", 0.25], ["2018-03-30", 0.25], ["2018-03-30", 0.25], ["2018-03-30", 0.25], ["2018-03-30", 0.25], ["2018-03-30", 0.25], ["2018-03-30", 0.25], ["2018-03-31", 0.25], ["2018-03-31", 0.25], ["2018-03-31", 0.25], ["2018-04-01", 0.25], ["2018-04-01", 0.25], ["2018-04-01", 0.25], ["2018-04-01", 0.25], ["2018-04-01", 0.25]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/824 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as Yes. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan? | gjopen | 1 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["http://www.resolvenet.org/research/bangladesh-brink-mapping-evolving-social-geography-political-violence", "https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/bangladeshs-new-generation-of-militants/", "https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/bangladesh/mapping-bangladesh-s-political-crisis", "https://www.dawn.com/news/1388124/bangladesh-opposition-leader-khaleda-zia-handed-5-year-jail-sentence-for-embezzlement", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/688867"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.15], ["2017-12-29", 0.2], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.025], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.15], ["2017-12-30", 0.125], ["2017-12-30", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.035], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], 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["2018-03-02", 0.025], ["2018-03-03", 0.025], ["2018-03-03", 0.03], ["2018-03-03", 0.02], ["2018-03-03", 0.02], ["2018-03-03", 0.02], ["2018-03-03", 0.025], ["2018-03-03", 0.025], ["2018-03-03", 0.025], ["2018-03-03", 0.025], ["2018-03-04", 0.025], ["2018-03-05", 0.02], ["2018-03-05", 0.02], ["2018-03-06", 0.02], ["2018-03-06", 0.02], ["2018-03-07", 0.02], ["2018-03-07", 0.02], ["2018-03-09", 0.02], ["2018-03-09", 0.02], ["2018-03-10", 0.02], ["2018-03-11", 0.02], ["2018-03-12", 0.02], ["2018-03-12", 0.02], ["2018-03-12", 0.02], ["2018-03-13", 0.02], ["2018-03-14", 0.02], ["2018-03-14", 0.02], ["2018-03-15", 0.02], ["2018-03-15", 0.02], ["2018-03-16", 0.02], ["2018-03-17", 0.02], ["2018-03-18", 0.025], ["2018-03-18", 0.03], ["2018-03-18", 0.03], ["2018-03-19", 0.03], ["2018-03-20", 0.03], ["2018-03-20", 0.03], ["2018-03-21", 0.03], ["2018-03-23", 0.03], ["2018-03-23", 0.03], ["2018-03-23", 0.03], ["2018-03-23", 0.03], ["2018-03-24", 0.03], ["2018-03-25", 0.03], ["2018-03-25", 0.03], ["2018-03-26", 0.03], ["2018-03-27", 0.03], ["2018-03-27", 0.03], ["2018-03-27", 0.03], ["2018-03-28", 0.03], ["2018-03-28", 0.03], ["2018-03-29", 0.03], ["2018-03-30", 0.03], ["2018-03-30", 0.02], ["2018-03-30", 0.02], ["2018-03-30", 0.02], ["2018-03-30", 0.025], ["2018-03-31", 0.025], ["2018-03-31", 0.02], ["2018-04-01", 0.02], ["2018-04-01", 0.025], ["2018-04-01", 0.025]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/839 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/21/turkey-starts-ground-incursion-into-kurdish-controlled-afrin-in-syria", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/middleeast/syria-kurds-assault-civilians-intl/index.html", "http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/090920161", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/nujaba-pmu-shiite-militias-us-iraq.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/19/turkey-begins-assault-kurdish-enclave-in-syria", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/turkey-operation-syria-afrin-key-players-180121060919195.html", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/eu-worried-about-erosion-of-rule-of-law-in-turkey/2018/02/02/a47d37b6-081c-11e8-aa61-f3391373867e_story.html?utm_term=.b84774b13051"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 1.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.35], ["2017-12-29", 0.5], ["2017-12-29", 0.325], ["2017-12-29", 0.01], ["2017-12-29", 0.02], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.1], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-30", 0.0], 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["2018-03-27", 0.015], ["2018-03-28", 0.02], ["2018-03-28", 0.02], ["2018-03-28", 0.02], ["2018-03-29", 0.02], ["2018-03-29", 0.02], ["2018-03-29", 0.02], ["2018-03-30", 0.02], ["2018-03-30", 0.02], ["2018-03-30", 0.02], ["2018-03-30", 0.015], ["2018-03-30", 0.015], ["2018-03-30", 0.015], ["2018-03-31", 0.02], ["2018-03-31", 0.02], ["2018-04-01", 0.02], ["2018-04-01", 0.02], ["2018-04-01", 0.02], ["2018-04-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/828 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
| gjopen | 0 |
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["2018-04-01", 0.15], ["2018-04-01", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/840 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
| gjopen | 0 |
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["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-24", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.045], ["2018-03-29", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-30", 0.045], ["2018-03-31", 0.045], ["2018-04-01", 0.045], ["2018-04-01", 0.045], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/830 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Philippines from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as Yes. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
| gjopen | 1 |
2019-12-09 | 2017-12-28 | ["https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/by.html"] | binary | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.175], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.0], ["2017-12-29", 0.035], ["2017-12-29", 0.035], ["2017-12-30", 0.035], ["2017-12-30", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.03], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.05], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2017-12-31", 0.015], ["2018-01-01", 0.015], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-01", 0.02], ["2018-01-02", 0.03], ["2018-01-02", 0.03], ["2018-01-02", 0.02], ["2018-01-02", 0.02], ["2018-01-02", 0.02], ["2018-01-02", 0.02], ["2018-01-02", 0.02], ["2018-01-02", 0.03], ["2018-01-02", 0.045], ["2018-01-02", 0.075], ["2018-01-03", 0.05], ["2018-01-03", 0.05], ["2018-01-03", 0.05], ["2018-01-03", 0.05], ["2018-01-03", 0.05], ["2018-01-04", 0.055], ["2018-01-04", 0.05], ["2018-01-04", 0.05], ["2018-01-04", 0.05], ["2018-01-04", 0.05], ["2018-01-04", 0.05], ["2018-01-04", 0.055], ["2018-01-04", 0.055], ["2018-01-04", 0.055], ["2018-01-05", 0.055], ["2018-01-05", 0.05], ["2018-01-05", 0.05], ["2018-01-05", 0.05], ["2018-01-05", 0.05], ["2018-01-06", 0.05], ["2018-01-06", 0.05], ["2018-01-06", 0.05], ["2018-01-06", 0.055], ["2018-01-06", 0.05], ["2018-01-07", 0.05], ["2018-01-07", 0.05], ["2018-01-07", 0.05], ["2018-01-07", 0.05], ["2018-01-07", 0.05], ["2018-01-07", 0.05], ["2018-01-08", 0.05], ["2018-01-08", 0.05], ["2018-01-08", 0.05], ["2018-01-09", 0.05], ["2018-01-09", 0.05], ["2018-01-09", 0.05], ["2018-01-10", 0.05], ["2018-01-11", 0.05], ["2018-01-11", 0.05], ["2018-01-11", 0.05], ["2018-01-12", 0.05], ["2018-01-12", 0.05], ["2018-01-13", 0.05], ["2018-01-13", 0.04], ["2018-01-13", 0.04], ["2018-01-14", 0.045], ["2018-01-14", 0.03], ["2018-01-14", 0.03], ["2018-01-14", 0.03], ["2018-01-15", 0.02], ["2018-01-15", 0.02], ["2018-01-16", 0.02], ["2018-01-16", 0.02], ["2018-01-17", 0.02], ["2018-01-17", 0.02], ["2018-01-18", 0.02], ["2018-01-18", 0.02], ["2018-01-19", 0.02], ["2018-01-19", 0.02], ["2018-01-19", 0.02], ["2018-01-20", 0.02], ["2018-01-21", 0.02], ["2018-01-21", 0.02], ["2018-01-21", 0.02], ["2018-01-22", 0.02], ["2018-01-22", 0.02], ["2018-01-23", 0.02], ["2018-01-24", 0.02], ["2018-01-24", 0.02], ["2018-01-25", 0.02], ["2018-01-26", 0.02], ["2018-01-26", 0.02], ["2018-01-27", 0.02], ["2018-01-27", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.02], ["2018-01-29", 0.025], ["2018-01-29", 0.025], ["2018-01-30", 0.025], ["2018-01-30", 0.02], ["2018-01-30", 0.02], ["2018-01-31", 0.02], ["2018-01-31", 0.02], ["2018-01-31", 0.02], ["2018-02-02", 0.02], ["2018-02-02", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-04", 0.02], ["2018-02-04", 0.02], ["2018-02-04", 0.02], ["2018-02-05", 0.02], ["2018-02-05", 0.02], ["2018-02-06", 0.02], ["2018-02-07", 0.02], ["2018-02-07", 0.02], ["2018-02-08", 0.02], ["2018-02-08", 0.02], ["2018-02-09", 0.02], ["2018-02-10", 0.02], ["2018-02-10", 0.02], ["2018-02-11", 0.02], ["2018-02-11", 0.02], ["2018-02-12", 0.02], ["2018-02-12", 0.02], ["2018-02-13", 0.02], ["2018-02-13", 0.02], ["2018-02-14", 0.02], ["2018-02-15", 0.02], ["2018-02-15", 0.02], ["2018-02-15", 0.02], ["2018-02-16", 0.02], ["2018-02-16", 0.02], ["2018-02-16", 0.02], ["2018-02-17", 0.02], ["2018-02-18", 0.02], ["2018-02-18", 0.02], ["2018-02-19", 0.02], ["2018-02-20", 0.02], ["2018-02-21", 0.02], ["2018-02-21", 0.02], ["2018-02-21", 0.02], ["2018-02-23", 0.02], ["2018-02-23", 0.02], ["2018-02-24", 0.04], ["2018-02-24", 0.04], ["2018-02-24", 0.04], ["2018-02-24", 0.035], ["2018-02-25", 0.045], ["2018-02-25", 0.045], ["2018-02-25", 0.045], ["2018-02-26", 0.045], ["2018-02-27", 0.045], ["2018-02-28", 0.045], ["2018-02-28", 0.04], ["2018-03-01", 0.04], ["2018-03-01", 0.04], ["2018-03-01", 0.04], ["2018-03-02", 0.04], ["2018-03-03", 0.04], ["2018-03-03", 0.045], ["2018-03-03", 0.045], ["2018-03-03", 0.045], ["2018-03-03", 0.045], ["2018-03-03", 0.045], ["2018-03-04", 0.045], ["2018-03-04", 0.05], ["2018-03-04", 0.05], ["2018-03-04", 0.05], ["2018-03-05", 0.04], ["2018-03-05", 0.04], ["2018-03-06", 0.04], ["2018-03-07", 0.04], ["2018-03-07", 0.04], ["2018-03-09", 0.04], ["2018-03-09", 0.04], ["2018-03-09", 0.04], ["2018-03-10", 0.04], ["2018-03-10", 0.04], ["2018-03-11", 0.04], ["2018-03-12", 0.035], ["2018-03-12", 0.035], ["2018-03-13", 0.035], ["2018-03-14", 0.035], ["2018-03-14", 0.035], ["2018-03-15", 0.035], ["2018-03-15", 0.035], ["2018-03-16", 0.035], ["2018-03-17", 0.035], ["2018-03-18", 0.035], ["2018-03-18", 0.04], ["2018-03-18", 0.04], ["2018-03-18", 0.04], ["2018-03-19", 0.04], ["2018-03-20", 0.04], ["2018-03-20", 0.045], ["2018-03-20", 0.045], ["2018-03-20", 0.045], ["2018-03-21", 0.045], ["2018-03-23", 0.045], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-23", 0.05], ["2018-03-24", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-29", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-30", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-03-31", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05], ["2018-04-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/838 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>) for examples. See <a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as No. (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/EWPJan2018Dec2018"target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-01 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-10-03 | 2018-01-10 | ["http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/06/vladimir-putin-isnt-as-russian-as-he-seems/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/13/international/bush-pulls-out-of-abm-treaty-putin-calls-move-a-mistake.html", "https://www.ft.com/content/ef93af1e-0a8d-11e8-8eb7-42f857ea9f09", "https://www.mda.mil/about/mission.html", "https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/02/13/us-urges-russia-honor-1987-arms-pact-warns-collapse.html", "https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm", "https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/12/08/the-looming-end-of-the-inf-treaty/", "https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/02/277888.htm", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/842-before-1-october-2018-will-either-russia-or-the-united-states-announce-that-it-is-suspending-its-participation-in-or-withdrawing-from-the-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mattis-plans-for-new-us-nuclear-weapon-could-be-bargaining-chip-with-russia/2018/02/06/198a6d14-0b68-11e8-baf5-e629fc1cd21e_story.html?utm_term=.b69f60d82f27", "https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/101888.htm#text", "https://clintonwhitehouse5.archives.gov/WH/new/html/Wed_Oct_4_141122_2000.html", "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-01/features/we-nearing-end-inf-treaty", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear-russia/u-s-presses-russia-to-comply-with-nuclear-missile-treaty-idUSKBN1E224A", "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_07-08/lookingback", "http://www.dw.com/en/russia-deploys-nuclear-capable-missile-system-in-kaliningrad-reports/a-42474925?maca=en-RSS_en_Flipboard-9487-xml-media", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Ballistic_Missile_Treaty", "https://news.am/eng/news/436251.html", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/106th-congress/senate-bill/269/text", "https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Putin-ally-warns-of-arms-race-as-Russia-considers-12603984.php", "http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/3054726", "http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mattis-plans-for-new-us-nuclear-weapon-could-be-bargaining-chip-with-russia/2018/02/06/198a6d14-0b68-11e8-baf5-e629fc1cd21e_story.html?utm_term=.b69f60d82f27", "https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/08/vladimir-putin-russian-election-iran-zimbabwe", "https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-reactions-new-us-nuclear-posture-review", "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4365530-2018-Nuclear-Posture-Review-Final-Report.html", "https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty"] | binary | [["2018-01-10", 0.0], ["2018-01-10", 0.25], ["2018-01-10", 0.08], 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["2018-09-27", 0.02], ["2018-09-28", 0.02], ["2018-09-28", 0.02], ["2018-09-28", 0.02], ["2018-09-29", 0.02], ["2018-09-29", 0.02], ["2018-09-29", 0.02], ["2018-09-30", 0.015], ["2018-09-30", 0.015]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/842 | For more information on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty see: <a href = "http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm"target="_blank">U.S Department of State</a>. Accusations of violations by both sides puts the future of the INF Treaty in question (<a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/escalation-threat-high-as-us-russia-inf-anti-missile-treaty-falters/a-41896421"target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018.
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-09-30 | Before 1 October 2018, will either Russia or the United States announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-04-09 | 2018-01-10 | ["https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/966611666178924544", "https://twitter.com/Zhivoderova/status/966280328087310337", "https://www.ft.com/content/382adee4-0405-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5", "http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21736541-unintended-puff-mr-putin-understanding-reality-tv-star-ksenia-sobchaks-presidential?frsc=dg%7Ce", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/697359", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/698020", "https://twitter.com/navalny", "https://twitter.com/navalny/status/966291236620562434", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43034642", "https://www.instagram.com/p/BfdPC31nogE", "http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43034642", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt9N-DV1Ccs", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-election-navalny/kremlin-critic-navalny-held-then-released-ahead-of-russian-election-idUSKCN1G618K", "https://twitter.com/navalny/status/966619284658155520", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-election-navalny/putin-nemesis-navalny-barred-from-election-tries-political-siege-idUSKCN1G50RM?il=0", "https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/28/europe/russian-protests-navalny-office-intl/index.html", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/22/alexei-navalny-detained-moscow-russian-opposition-leader-faces-jail-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other", "http://www.unz.com/akarlin/navalnys-ten-percent/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2017/12/26/playing-pinballs-big-comeback/#be0dd0d41a55", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/697376", "https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/22/587858709/russian-police-briefly-detain-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-again", "https://navalny.com/", "https://meduza.io/news/2018/02/27/sud-po-yanvarskoy-aktsii-navalnogo-naznachili-za-dve-nedeli-do-vyborov-emu-grozit-30-sutok-aresta", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/05/russia-police-accuse-navalny-of-assaulting-officer-during-protest", 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["2018-04-05", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/844 | Navalny has been incarcerated many times for reasons ranging from unauthorized protests to embezzlement (<a href = "http://www.dw.com/en/russian-jail-frees-vladimir-putin-opponent-alexei-navalny/a-41066328"target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/putin-s-rival-can-t-run-for-president-but-he-s-still-a-threat"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). Although the Central Election Committee of the Russian Federation has barred him from running in the upcoming presidential elections, Navalny has continued to express his political aspirations (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2018/article/14409/alexei-navalny-calls-out-putins-hypocrisy"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21730447-kremlin-says-he-cannot-run-president-he-running-anyway-alexei-navalny-tells"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
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<hr>
Alexei Navalny was not imprisoned or placed under house arrest. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 9 April 2018.
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<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-06 | Will Alexei Navalny be imprisoned or placed under house arrest between 10 January 2018 and 8 April 2018?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-06-25 | 2018-01-16 | ["http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/675715", "https://ballotpedia.org/Cox_v._United_States", "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/16-961", "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/argument-analysis-justices-debate-dual-officeholding-ban-jurisdiction-military-courts/", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/unconventional-test-case-civilian-control-military"] | binary | [["2018-01-16", 0.2], ["2018-01-16", 1.0], ["2018-01-16", 0.925], ["2018-01-16", 0.8], ["2018-01-16", 0.75], ["2018-01-16", 0.75], ["2018-01-17", 0.55], ["2018-01-17", 0.65], ["2018-01-17", 0.7], ["2018-01-17", 0.725], ["2018-01-17", 0.775], ["2018-01-17", 0.825], ["2018-01-18", 0.825], ["2018-01-18", 0.83], ["2018-01-18", 0.86], ["2018-01-19", 0.86], ["2018-01-19", 0.86], ["2018-01-20", 0.83], ["2018-01-21", 0.83], ["2018-01-21", 0.675], ["2018-01-24", 0.65], ["2018-01-25", 0.65], ["2018-01-27", 0.75], ["2018-01-28", 0.75], ["2018-01-29", 0.75], ["2018-01-29", 0.75], ["2018-01-29", 0.75], ["2018-01-30", 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["2018-05-23", 0.5], ["2018-05-23", 0.5], ["2018-05-24", 0.5], ["2018-05-26", 0.5], ["2018-05-27", 0.5], ["2018-05-27", 0.5], ["2018-05-28", 0.5], ["2018-05-31", 0.5], ["2018-06-04", 0.5], ["2018-06-06", 0.525], ["2018-06-08", 0.525], ["2018-06-09", 0.525], ["2018-06-11", 0.525], ["2018-06-12", 0.525], ["2018-06-14", 0.525], ["2018-06-14", 0.525], ["2018-06-15", 0.5], ["2018-06-16", 0.5], ["2018-06-16", 0.5], ["2018-06-16", 0.5], ["2018-06-17", 0.5], ["2018-06-18", 0.5], ["2018-06-20", 0.49], ["2018-06-20", 0.49], ["2018-06-21", 0.49], ["2018-06-21", 0.495], ["2018-06-22", 0.495], ["2018-06-22", 0.5], ["2018-06-22", 0.5], ["2018-06-22", 0.5], ["2018-06-22", 0.5], ["2018-06-22", 0.5]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/877 | In 2016, the US Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces dismissed (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-961-op-below-CAAF.pdf"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>) Nicole DalmazziÍs objections to Judge Martin Mitchell serving as an appellate military judge on the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals (AFCCA) while also serving as a military judge on the United States Court of Military Commission Review (USCMCR). Dalmazzi claimed that Judge MitchellÍs appointment to the USCMCR disqualified him to serve as an appellate judge on the AFCCA due to the statutory ban on dual-officeholding by civil servants (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/dalmazzi-v-united-states/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/01/argument-preview-justices-consider-role-military-judges-dual-officeholding-ban/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>). Dalmazzi also claims that simultaneous service on both the AFCCA and the USCMCR violates the Appointments Clause of the US constitution. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 22 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-961_jiel.pdf"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>).
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| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-22 | In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-06-29 | 2018-01-24 | ["https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case-prediction/janus-v-afscme/", "https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED428067", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeleef/2017/11/01/public-unions-are-about-to-lose-forced-dues-in-supreme-court-what-will-they-do/#4ceb93502400", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abood_v._Detroit_Board_of_Education", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/680340", "https://qz.com/342311/american-workers-have-pretty-much-stopped-using-their-most-powerful-weapon/", "https://www.predictit.org/Contract/8126/Will-SCOTUS-overrule-public-sector-union-decision-in-Janus-v-American-Federation-by-7-31-18#data", "http://www.freetoteach.org/page/6-facts-on-fair-share-fees", "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/opinion/unions-janus-california.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region"] | binary | [["2018-01-24", 0.0], ["2018-01-24", 0.85], 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Detroit Board of Education (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/janus-v-american-federation-state-county-municipal-employees-council-31/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca7/16-3638/16-3638-2017-03-21.html"target="_blank">Justia US Law</a>, <a href = "https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/09/judgment-day-for-public-unions/541449/"target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>, <a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/16-1466.html"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>). Under Abood, unions are allowed to collect agency fees fron non-union employees to cover costs related to collective-bargaining. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
The Supreme Court ruled that <a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1466_2b3j.pdf"target="_blank">mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees was unconstitutional</a>. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 27 June 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-27 | In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-09-04 | 2018-01-24 | ["https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/02/joe-arpaio-senate-campaign-2018-profile-216922", "https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/82/Congressional-Primaries", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/02/01/joe-arpaio-pleads-ignorance-after-recent-interview-with-anti-semitic-weekly-it-was-his-fifth/", "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona_(August_28,_2018_Republican_primary", "http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/12/11/should-conservatives-vote-for-roy-moore.html", "http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/12/12/establishment-republicans-cheer-roy-moores-loss-in-alabama/", "https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2018/01/16/poll-shows-mcsally-frontrunner-arizona-senate-race-but-can-she-snag-donald-trumps-endorsemen/1036669001/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Arizona", "https://ballotpedia.org/History_of_Initiative_%26_Referendum_in_Arizona", 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["2018-08-23", 0.05], ["2018-08-23", 0.05], ["2018-08-24", 0.05], ["2018-08-24", 0.05], ["2018-08-25", 0.05], ["2018-08-25", 0.05], ["2018-08-25", 0.05], ["2018-08-26", 0.05], ["2018-08-26", 0.05], ["2018-08-27", 0.05], ["2018-08-27", 0.05], ["2018-08-28", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/880 | Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he is running in Arizona for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/joe-arpaio-senate-arizona.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-arpaio/ex-arizona-sheriff-arpaio-running-for-senate-idUSKBN1EY1Z3"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/26/why-trumps-pardon-of-joe-arpaio-isnt-like-most-presidential-pardons/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>). The primary election is scheduled to take place on 28 August 2018 (<a href = "https://www.azsos.gov/elections/elections-calendar-upcoming-events"target="_blank">Arizona Secretary of State</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 28 August 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-08-28 | Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-24 | 2018-01-24 | ["https://blog.caranddriver.com/traffic-jamming-in-the-2019-audi-a8-we-let-automated-driving-tech-take-the-wheel", "https://blog.caranddriver.com/traffic-jamming-in-the-2019-audi-a8-we-let-automated-driving-tech-take-the-wheel/", "https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/2017-audi-a8-revealed-brands-most-high-tech-model-yet", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/680174", "https://www.cars.com/articles/audi-a7-tech-takes-off-for-2019-1420698807858/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/882-before-20-july-2018-will-audi-sell-or-lease-a-motor-vehicle-with-traffic-jam-pilot#"] | binary | [["2018-01-24", 0.05], ["2018-01-24", 0.435], ["2018-01-24", 0.55], ["2018-01-25", 0.2], ["2018-01-25", 0.175], ["2018-01-25", 0.1], ["2018-01-25", 0.12], ["2018-01-25", 0.065], ["2018-01-25", 0.07], ["2018-01-26", 0.11], ["2018-01-26", 0.06], ["2018-01-26", 0.05], ["2018-01-27", 0.05], ["2018-01-27", 0.03], ["2018-01-27", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.02], ["2018-01-28", 0.025], 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["2018-07-13", 0.02], ["2018-07-15", 0.015], ["2018-07-16", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.01], ["2018-07-18", 0.01], ["2018-07-18", 0.01], ["2018-07-19", 0.01], ["2018-07-20", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/882 | The Society of Automotive Engineers uses six levels (zero through five) to classify the level of autonomy in vehicles (<a href = "https://www.caranddriver.com/features/path-to-autonomy-self-driving-car-levels-0-to-5-explained-feature"target="_blank">Car and Driver</a>). Within the ongoing debate on the best development path for autonomous vehicle technology, the viability and safety of vehicles with Level 3 autonomy in contrast to Level 4 autonomy is seen as most salient (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21722628-forget-hype-about-autonomous-vehicles-being-around-cornerreal-driverless-cars-will"target="_blank">The Economist</a>). As such, different companies are advancing different strategies (<a href = "https://www.inverse.com/article/28964-ford-chief-av-engineer-jackie-dimarco-autonomous-vehicles"target="_blank">Inverse</a>). Audi's development of Level 3 autonomy capabilities with its Traffic Jam Pilot make it a pivotal case to watch in the context of this debate (<a href = "https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/techday-piloted-driving-the-traffic-jam-pilot-in-the-new-audi-a8-9276"target="_blank">Audi</a>, <a href = "https://www.pocket-lint.com/cars/news/audi/142455-audi-a8-with-ai-how-audi-traffic-jam-pilot-autonomous-driving-tech-works"target="_blank">Pocket-Lint</a>, <a href="https://practicalmotoring.com.au/car-news/level-3-autonomy-audi-others-have-the-machines-finally-risen/" target="_blank">Practical Motoring</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-20 | Before 20 July 2018, will Audi sell or lease a motor vehicle with Traffic Jam Pilot?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-03-05 | 2018-02-01 | ["http://www.goldderby.com/article/2017/2018-oscar-predictions-best-cinematography/"] | binary | [["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-01", 0.05], ["2018-02-01", 0.15], ["2018-02-01", 0.29], ["2018-02-01", 0.165], ["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-02", 0.0], ["2018-02-02", 0.005], ["2018-02-02", 0.02], ["2018-02-02", 0.03], ["2018-02-02", 0.03], ["2018-02-02", 0.04], ["2018-02-02", 0.045], ["2018-02-02", 0.1], ["2018-02-02", 0.1], ["2018-02-02", 0.05], ["2018-02-02", 0.04], ["2018-02-03", 0.045], ["2018-02-03", 0.025], ["2018-02-03", 0.03], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.02], ["2018-02-03", 0.035], ["2018-02-03", 0.035], ["2018-02-03", 0.1], ["2018-02-03", 0.15], ["2018-02-03", 0.25], ["2018-02-03", 0.25], ["2018-02-03", 0.23], ["2018-02-03", 0.23], ["2018-02-03", 0.23], ["2018-02-03", 0.21], ["2018-02-03", 0.21], ["2018-02-03", 0.23], ["2018-02-03", 0.3], ["2018-02-04", 0.3], ["2018-02-04", 0.35], ["2018-02-04", 0.35], ["2018-02-04", 0.3], ["2018-02-04", 0.23], ["2018-02-04", 0.205], ["2018-02-04", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.205], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-05", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.205], ["2018-02-06", 0.205], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-06", 0.2], ["2018-02-07", 0.2], ["2018-02-07", 0.2], ["2018-02-07", 0.2], ["2018-02-07", 0.2], ["2018-02-07", 0.205], ["2018-02-07", 0.2], ["2018-02-07", 0.2], ["2018-02-08", 0.2], ["2018-02-08", 0.2], ["2018-02-08", 0.2], ["2018-02-08", 0.2], ["2018-02-08", 0.2], ["2018-02-09", 0.21], ["2018-02-09", 0.21], ["2018-02-09", 0.205], ["2018-02-10", 0.205], ["2018-02-10", 0.205], ["2018-02-10", 0.205], ["2018-02-12", 0.2], ["2018-02-12", 0.2], ["2018-02-12", 0.2], ["2018-02-12", 0.2], ["2018-02-12", 0.2], ["2018-02-12", 0.2], ["2018-02-13", 0.2], ["2018-02-14", 0.2], ["2018-02-14", 0.2], ["2018-02-14", 0.2], ["2018-02-14", 0.2], ["2018-02-15", 0.2], ["2018-02-15", 0.2], ["2018-02-16", 0.2], ["2018-02-17", 0.22], ["2018-02-17", 0.225], ["2018-02-18", 0.225], ["2018-02-18", 0.225], ["2018-02-19", 0.225], ["2018-02-19", 0.22], ["2018-02-19", 0.22], ["2018-02-19", 0.23], ["2018-02-19", 0.225], ["2018-02-20", 0.235], ["2018-02-20", 0.235], ["2018-02-20", 0.235], ["2018-02-20", 0.22], ["2018-02-21", 0.22], ["2018-02-21", 0.22], ["2018-02-21", 0.215], ["2018-02-21", 0.215], ["2018-02-21", 0.215], ["2018-02-21", 0.215], ["2018-02-21", 0.205], ["2018-02-22", 0.215], ["2018-02-22", 0.215], ["2018-02-22", 0.215], ["2018-02-23", 0.215], ["2018-02-23", 0.22], ["2018-02-23", 0.22], ["2018-02-24", 0.235], ["2018-02-24", 0.235], ["2018-02-24", 0.25], ["2018-02-24", 0.25], ["2018-02-24", 0.25], ["2018-02-25", 0.25], ["2018-02-25", 0.25], ["2018-02-25", 0.25], ["2018-02-25", 0.25], ["2018-02-25", 0.25], ["2018-02-25", 0.25], ["2018-02-26", 0.25], ["2018-02-27", 0.25], ["2018-02-27", 0.25], ["2018-02-27", 0.25], ["2018-02-27", 0.25], ["2018-02-28", 0.25], ["2018-02-28", 0.25], ["2018-02-28", 0.25], ["2018-03-01", 0.25], ["2018-03-01", 0.25], ["2018-03-01", 0.25], ["2018-03-02", 0.25], ["2018-03-02", 0.25], ["2018-03-02", 0.25], ["2018-03-02", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.235], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.235], ["2018-03-03", 0.235], ["2018-03-03", 0.22], ["2018-03-03", 0.22], ["2018-03-04", 0.22], ["2018-03-04", 0.22], ["2018-03-04", 0.22], ["2018-03-04", 0.21], ["2018-03-04", 0.205], ["2018-03-04", 0.205], ["2018-03-04", 0.2], ["2018-03-04", 0.2], ["2018-03-04", 0.175], ["2018-03-05", 0.175], ["2018-03-05", 0.175], ["2018-03-05", 0.175], ["2018-03-05", 0.175]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/883 | Rachel Morrison is the first woman to be nominated for an Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Cinematography (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/nominees/cinematography/mudbound-2"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>, <a href = "http://variety.com/2018/film/in-contention/oscars-first-female-cinematographer-mudbound-cinematographer-rachel-morrison-1202673355/"target="_blank">Variety</a>). To enable night of forecasting, this question will remain open through the end of March 4th. Forecasts made through roughly 15 minutes prior to the award announcement will be scored.
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This question closed on outcome "No." Roger Deakins won the 2018 Academy Award for Best Cinematography.
(<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2018/03/04/oscars-2018-complete-coverage-of-the-90th-academy-awards/?utm_term=.390e9ecf77c9"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
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| Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-03-05 | Will Rachel Morrison win the 2018 Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Cinematography?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-04-06 | 2018-02-07 | ["https://qz.com/1181318/ethiopia-egypt-sudan-and-eritrea-tensions-over-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-on-nile-river/", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africanunion-summit-nile/egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-hope-to-break-nile-dam-talks-deadlock-in-one-month-idUSKBN1FI1LC", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/11/egypt-sudan-spat-muddies-prospects-for-deal-on-big-nile-dam-renaissance-gerd-ethiopia-sisi-turkey/", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ru/contents/articles/originals/2016/01/saudi-investments-agriculture-sudan-egypt-fears-water-nile.html", "http://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/agreement-on-declaration-of-principles-on-the-grand-ethiopianrenaissance-dam-project-a-reaffirmation-of-the-1929-and-1959agreement-2151-6200-1000170.php?aid=71460#1", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G_8X8tbjqjg", "https://www.voanews.com/a/tension-in-east-africa-ticks-up-over-nile-gulf-power-struggle/4220431.html", "http://www.egyptindependent.com/ethiopia-postpones-renaissance-dam-meeting-amid-domestic-tension-egypt-fm/", "http://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2018/02/06/Egypt-and-Ethiopia-between-deadlock-and-breakthrough-over-Nile-dam.html", "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1195321/middle-east", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/ethiopian-leader-to-step-down-in-wake-of-unrest-1518707206", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/886-before-1-october-2018-will-the-water-ministers-of-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-meet-to-resume-technical-negotiations-over-the-renaissance-dam/www.omicsonline.org/open-access/agreement-on-declaration-of-principles-on-the-grand-ethiopianrenaissance-dam-project-a-reaffirmation-of-the-1929-and-1959agreement-2151-6200-1000170.php?aid=71460#1", "http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64431", "https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/fr/contents/articles/originals/2016/02/egypt-interview-orabi-sudan-ethiopia-renaissance-dam.html", 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["2018-04-05", 0.75]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/886 | Water ministers refer to Egypt's Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Ethiopia's Minister of Water Irrigation and Electricity, and Sudan's Minister of Electricity and Water Resources. Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), located in Ethiopia, is more than halfway complete. However, ongoing technical negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have hit a roadblock as Egypt has concerns over its downstream access to Nile water (<a href = "http://www.arabnews.com/node/1195321/middle-east"target="_blank">Arab News</a>, <a href = "https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/egypt-girds-itself-loss-power-over-nile"target="_blank">Stratfor</a>, <a href = "http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/arab-league-extreme-concern-over-ethiopias-nile-da/"target="_blank">Global Construction Review</a>).
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<hr>
All three water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan met to resume technical negotiations over the Renaissance Dam. This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 5 April 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-04-05 | Before 1 October 2018, will the water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet to resume technical negotiations over the Renaissance Dam?
| gjopen | 1 |
2018-02-26 | 2018-02-15 | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/17/sports/olympics/olympics-nathan-chen-quads.html", "http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-17/chens-quad-magic-falls-short-as-hanyu-takes-skating-gold/9458102"] | binary | [["2018-02-15", 0.55], ["2018-02-15", 0.6], ["2018-02-15", 0.425], ["2018-02-16", 0.275], ["2018-02-16", 0.15], ["2018-02-16", 0.025], ["2018-02-16", 0.01], ["2018-02-16", 0.0], ["2018-02-16", 0.0], ["2018-02-16", 0.005], ["2018-02-16", 0.025], ["2018-02-16", 0.025], ["2018-02-16", 0.065], ["2018-02-16", 0.05], ["2018-02-16", 0.05], ["2018-02-17", 0.05], ["2018-02-17", 0.14], ["2018-02-17", 0.195], ["2018-02-17", 0.2], ["2018-02-17", 0.2], ["2018-02-17", 0.145], ["2018-02-17", 0.075], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-17", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-18", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-19", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-20", 0.0], ["2018-02-21", 0.0], ["2018-02-21", 0.0], ["2018-02-21", 0.0], ["2018-02-21", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/889 | Nathan Chen was the only undefeated individual skater in the world this season in individual competition and will compete for an individual medal on 16-17 February (<a href = "https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/figure-skating/daily-schedule.htm"target="_blank">Olympic.org</a>). He "bombed in his Olympic debut Friday [9 February]" (<a href = "https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/brennan/2018/02/13/figure-skating-nathan-chen-2018-winter-olympics/332055002/"target="_blank">USA Today</a>).
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Nathan Chen did not win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 21 February 2018.
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<hr> | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-02-21 | Will Nathan Chen win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-06-15 | 2018-02-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-28", 0.35], ["2018-02-28", 0.12], ["2018-02-28", 0.06], ["2018-02-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.075], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.05], ["2018-03-01", 0.375], ["2018-03-01", 0.375], ["2018-03-01", 0.725], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-01", 0.725], ["2018-03-01", 0.7], ["2018-03-02", 0.7], ["2018-03-02", 0.725], ["2018-03-02", 0.65], ["2018-03-02", 0.65], ["2018-03-02", 0.45], ["2018-03-02", 0.25], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-02", 0.185], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.25], ["2018-03-03", 0.3], ["2018-03-03", 0.35], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-03", 0.75], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.825], ["2018-03-04", 0.775], ["2018-03-04", 0.825], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.75], ["2018-03-04", 0.75], ["2018-03-04", 0.775], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.8], ["2018-03-04", 0.825], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.85], ["2018-03-05", 0.825], ["2018-03-05", 0.825], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-05", 0.785], ["2018-03-05", 0.8], ["2018-03-06", 0.785], ["2018-03-06", 0.785], ["2018-03-06", 0.785], ["2018-03-06", 0.77], ["2018-03-07", 0.75], ["2018-03-07", 0.76], ["2018-03-07", 0.76], ["2018-03-08", 0.785], ["2018-03-08", 0.785], ["2018-03-08", 0.77], ["2018-03-09", 0.75], ["2018-03-10", 0.75], ["2018-03-10", 0.75], ["2018-03-11", 0.685], ["2018-03-12", 0.685], ["2018-03-12", 0.62], ["2018-03-12", 0.62], ["2018-03-12", 0.61], ["2018-03-13", 0.585], ["2018-03-13", 0.585], ["2018-03-14", 0.585], ["2018-03-15", 0.6], ["2018-03-15", 0.57], ["2018-03-16", 0.57], ["2018-03-16", 0.57], ["2018-03-17", 0.57], ["2018-03-17", 0.585], ["2018-03-18", 0.585], ["2018-03-18", 0.585], ["2018-03-18", 0.57], ["2018-03-18", 0.57], ["2018-03-19", 0.56], ["2018-03-19", 0.585], ["2018-03-19", 0.61], ["2018-03-19", 0.585], ["2018-03-20", 0.57], ["2018-03-21", 0.57], ["2018-03-22", 0.51], ["2018-03-25", 0.45], ["2018-03-25", 0.45], ["2018-03-26", 0.45], ["2018-03-27", 0.5], ["2018-03-27", 0.45], ["2018-03-27", 0.45], ["2018-03-29", 0.425], ["2018-03-31", 0.425], ["2018-03-31", 0.425], ["2018-04-01", 0.4], ["2018-04-01", 0.4], ["2018-04-02", 0.4], ["2018-04-04", 0.4], ["2018-04-05", 0.4], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-05", 0.375], ["2018-04-06", 0.4], ["2018-04-06", 0.4], ["2018-04-06", 0.4], ["2018-04-07", 0.4], ["2018-04-07", 0.375], ["2018-04-09", 0.375], ["2018-04-10", 0.375], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-12", 0.4], ["2018-04-15", 0.35], ["2018-04-16", 0.35], ["2018-04-18", 0.35], ["2018-04-19", 0.35], ["2018-04-21", 0.35], ["2018-04-25", 0.35], ["2018-04-25", 0.35], ["2018-04-26", 0.35], ["2018-04-28", 0.4], ["2018-04-30", 0.4], ["2018-05-01", 0.4], ["2018-05-01", 0.4], ["2018-05-05", 0.4], ["2018-05-06", 0.4], ["2018-05-07", 0.4], ["2018-05-10", 0.4], ["2018-05-12", 0.4], ["2018-05-12", 0.4], ["2018-05-12", 0.4], ["2018-05-13", 0.35], ["2018-05-14", 0.35], ["2018-05-14", 0.35], ["2018-05-14", 0.325], ["2018-05-14", 0.3], ["2018-05-14", 0.3], ["2018-05-15", 0.3], ["2018-05-15", 0.3], ["2018-05-15", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-17", 0.3], ["2018-05-17", 0.3], ["2018-05-18", 0.3], ["2018-05-19", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.325], ["2018-05-23", 0.35], ["2018-05-24", 0.35], ["2018-05-26", 0.35], ["2018-05-26", 0.35], ["2018-05-27", 0.35], ["2018-05-28", 0.35], ["2018-05-30", 0.35], ["2018-06-01", 0.35], ["2018-06-01", 0.35], ["2018-06-03", 0.4], ["2018-06-04", 0.4], ["2018-06-06", 0.4], ["2018-06-07", 0.4], ["2018-06-08", 0.4], ["2018-06-09", 0.4], ["2018-06-11", 0.4], ["2018-06-13", 0.4], ["2018-06-13", 0.35], ["2018-06-14", 0.375], ["2018-06-14", 0.375], ["2018-06-14", 0.425], ["2018-06-14", 0.475], ["2018-06-14", 0.475], ["2018-06-14", 0.475], ["2018-06-14", 0.475]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/893 | Last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit ruled that Minnesota Statute ¤ 211B.11, banning political apparel at the polling place, did not violate the federal constitution (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/minnesota-voters-alliance-v-mansky/"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/?id=211b.11"target="_blank">The Office of the Revisor of Statutes, Minnesota</a>). Plaintiffs appealed to the Supreme Court, asserting that the law violates First Amendment protections for free speech. A Supreme Court ruling that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is as-applied unconstitutional will not count. For more information on what constitutes a "facial" challenge like the one in this case, as opposed to an "as-applied" challenge, see <a href = "http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1168&context=wmborj"target="_blank">here</a>. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, the Supreme Court ruled that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1435_2co3.pdf"target="_blank">Minnesota vs. Mansky</a>, <a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/minnesota-voters-alliance-v-mansky"target="_blank">SCOTUSBlog</a>). This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 14 June 2018.
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-14 | In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional?
| gjopen | 1 |
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["2018-05-21", 0.89], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-21", 0.9], ["2018-05-22", 0.9], ["2018-05-22", 0.9], ["2018-05-22", 0.9], ["2018-05-22", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-23", 0.9], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-25", 0.9], ["2018-05-25", 0.9], ["2018-05-25", 0.9], ["2018-05-25", 0.9], ["2018-05-25", 0.9], ["2018-05-25", 0.9]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/896 | There is growing discussion regarding the repeal of Ireland's Eighth Amendment, which bans most abortions (<a href = "http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1983/ca/8/enacted/en/print"target="_blank">Irish Statute Book</a>, <a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/eoghan-murphy-abortion-a-matter-for-a-woman-and-her-doctor-1.3328568"target="_blank">Irish Times</a>). Prior to the referendum, the government will publish a bill outlining the exact text of the referendum (<a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/abortion-wording-needs-to-be-decided-by-february-for-june-vote-1.3325728"target="_blank">Irish Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43129019"target="_blank">BBC</a>).
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<hr>
A referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' <a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/abortion-referendum"target="_blank">Eighth Amendment passed</a>. This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 25 May 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-05-25 | Before 1 October 2018, will a referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-12-27 | 2018-03-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-07", 0.2], ["2018-03-07", 0.25], ["2018-03-07", 0.1], ["2018-03-07", 0.2], ["2018-03-07", 0.475], ["2018-03-08", 0.225], ["2018-03-08", 0.3], ["2018-03-08", 0.35], ["2018-03-08", 0.35], ["2018-03-08", 0.55], ["2018-03-08", 0.375], ["2018-03-08", 0.325], ["2018-03-08", 0.36], ["2018-03-08", 0.56], ["2018-03-09", 0.55], ["2018-03-09", 0.51], ["2018-03-09", 0.55], ["2018-03-10", 0.55], ["2018-03-10", 0.57], ["2018-03-10", 0.6], ["2018-03-10", 0.645], ["2018-03-11", 0.6], ["2018-03-11", 0.6], ["2018-03-12", 0.67], ["2018-03-12", 0.7], ["2018-03-12", 0.7], ["2018-03-12", 0.665], ["2018-03-12", 0.685], ["2018-03-12", 0.695], ["2018-03-12", 0.695], ["2018-03-12", 0.65], ["2018-03-12", 0.55], ["2018-03-13", 0.55], ["2018-03-13", 0.55], ["2018-03-13", 0.55], ["2018-03-13", 0.55], ["2018-03-13", 0.55], ["2018-03-13", 0.55], ["2018-03-14", 0.55], ["2018-03-14", 0.55], ["2018-03-15", 0.6], ["2018-03-15", 0.61], ["2018-03-15", 0.635], 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["2018-11-30", 0.05], ["2018-11-30", 0.05], ["2018-11-30", 0.05], ["2018-11-30", 0.05], ["2018-12-01", 0.05], ["2018-12-02", 0.05], ["2018-12-04", 0.05], ["2018-12-05", 0.05], ["2018-12-06", 0.05], ["2018-12-08", 0.05], ["2018-12-08", 0.05], ["2018-12-09", 0.05], ["2018-12-10", 0.05], ["2018-12-10", 0.05], ["2018-12-11", 0.05], ["2018-12-12", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-13", 0.05], ["2018-12-14", 0.05], ["2018-12-14", 0.05], ["2018-12-14", 0.05], ["2018-12-16", 0.05], ["2018-12-16", 0.05], ["2018-12-17", 0.05], ["2018-12-17", 0.05], ["2018-12-17", 0.05], ["2018-12-18", 0.05], ["2018-12-18", 0.05], ["2018-12-18", 0.05], ["2018-12-18", 0.05], ["2018-12-18", 0.05], ["2018-12-19", 0.05], ["2018-12-19", 0.05], ["2018-12-19", 0.05], ["2018-12-20", 0.05], ["2018-12-20", 0.05], ["2018-12-21", 0.05], ["2018-12-22", 0.05], ["2018-12-22", 0.05], ["2018-12-23", 0.05], ["2018-12-25", 0.05], ["2018-12-26", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/894 | In the wake of the mass shooting in Parkland, Florida, President Trump signalled his willingness to regulate "bump stocks," an after-market accessory for semi-automatic rifles. (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/us/politics/trump-bump-stocks.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>) Legislation banning such devices has been introduced in Congress (<a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/politics/bump-stocks-gun-control-bill-introduced/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/politics/nra-opposes-bump-stock-bills/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>), and Speaker Paul Ryan has called for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to ban them by regulation (<a href = "http://thehill.com/homenews/house/354909-ryan-urges-atf-to-fix-bump-stock-gun-loophole"target="_blank">The Hill</a>) under existing law. Regulatory or legislative bans will count, as will bans with exemptions. The date that any ban would take effect is immaterial to the outcome of the question.
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<hr>
This question closed as "<a href = "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/12/26/2018-27763/bump-stock-type-devices"target="_blank">yes</a>" with an end date of 26 December 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-12-26 | Before 1 January 2019, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-06-27 | 2018-03-14 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-14", 0.25], ["2018-03-14", 0.0], ["2018-03-14", 0.05], ["2018-03-15", 0.075], ["2018-03-15", 0.055], ["2018-03-16", 0.06], ["2018-03-16", 0.8], ["2018-03-16", 0.8], ["2018-03-17", 0.875], ["2018-03-17", 0.85], ["2018-03-17", 0.825], ["2018-03-17", 0.75], ["2018-03-17", 0.75], ["2018-03-18", 0.75], ["2018-03-18", 0.415], ["2018-03-18", 0.09], ["2018-03-18", 0.09], ["2018-03-19", 0.08], ["2018-03-19", 0.1], ["2018-03-19", 0.33], ["2018-03-19", 0.33], ["2018-03-19", 0.33], ["2018-03-20", 0.33], ["2018-03-20", 0.56], ["2018-03-20", 0.67], ["2018-03-21", 0.685], ["2018-03-21", 0.725], ["2018-03-21", 0.775], ["2018-03-21", 0.825], ["2018-03-21", 0.85], ["2018-03-21", 0.85], ["2018-03-21", 0.85], ["2018-03-22", 0.875], ["2018-03-22", 0.9], ["2018-03-23", 0.91], ["2018-03-23", 0.91], ["2018-03-25", 0.9], ["2018-03-26", 0.92], ["2018-03-26", 0.92], ["2018-03-29", 0.95], ["2018-03-30", 0.95], ["2018-03-30", 0.95], ["2018-03-31", 0.95], ["2018-04-01", 0.935], ["2018-04-01", 0.905], ["2018-04-03", 0.92], ["2018-04-03", 0.95], ["2018-04-03", 0.95], ["2018-04-04", 0.95], ["2018-04-04", 0.95], ["2018-04-04", 0.92], ["2018-04-05", 0.92], ["2018-04-05", 0.87], ["2018-04-06", 0.87], ["2018-04-06", 0.89], ["2018-04-07", 0.85], ["2018-04-07", 0.85], ["2018-04-08", 0.85], ["2018-04-08", 0.85], ["2018-04-08", 0.85], ["2018-04-09", 0.85], ["2018-04-12", 0.85], ["2018-04-12", 0.75], ["2018-04-15", 0.8], ["2018-04-15", 0.8], ["2018-04-16", 0.8], ["2018-04-18", 0.825], ["2018-04-19", 0.825], ["2018-04-25", 0.85], ["2018-04-26", 0.85], ["2018-04-27", 0.85], ["2018-04-30", 0.8], ["2018-05-01", 0.75], ["2018-05-01", 0.75], ["2018-05-05", 0.75], ["2018-05-07", 0.7], ["2018-05-12", 0.645], ["2018-05-12", 0.645], ["2018-05-14", 0.645], ["2018-05-14", 0.65], ["2018-05-14", 0.65], ["2018-05-16", 0.65], ["2018-05-17", 0.64], ["2018-05-17", 0.64], ["2018-05-17", 0.65], ["2018-05-19", 0.64], ["2018-05-22", 0.64], ["2018-05-22", 0.62], ["2018-05-23", 0.6], ["2018-05-24", 0.6], ["2018-05-25", 0.6], ["2018-05-26", 0.6], ["2018-05-27", 0.6], ["2018-05-27", 0.6], ["2018-05-28", 0.6], ["2018-05-30", 0.6], ["2018-05-31", 0.6], ["2018-06-04", 0.6], ["2018-06-07", 0.6], ["2018-06-08", 0.6], ["2018-06-09", 0.6], ["2018-06-11", 0.6], ["2018-06-12", 0.61], ["2018-06-13", 0.6], ["2018-06-13", 0.6], ["2018-06-14", 0.6], ["2018-06-14", 0.6], ["2018-06-15", 0.6], ["2018-06-16", 0.6], ["2018-06-16", 0.6], ["2018-06-16", 0.61], ["2018-06-17", 0.61], ["2018-06-20", 0.61], ["2018-06-20", 0.61], ["2018-06-21", 0.6], ["2018-06-22", 0.62], ["2018-06-22", 0.62], ["2018-06-22", 0.62], ["2018-06-23", 0.62], ["2018-06-24", 0.62], ["2018-06-26", 0.62], ["2018-06-26", 0.62], ["2018-06-26", 0.62], ["2018-06-26", 0.635], ["2018-06-26", 0.65], ["2018-06-26", 0.65]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/899 | In 2016, the National Institute of Family and Life Advocates (NIFLA) challenged the constitutionality of California's FACT Act's requirement that licensed healthcare providers post notices about the availability of state abortion programs, asking for a preliminary injunction of the law. That injunction was denied; a decision which was upheld by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (<a href = "https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/16-1140">Oyez</a>) (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/16-1140-op-bel-9th-cir.pdf"target="_blank">SCOTUSblog</a>). NIFLA is challenging this ruling in the Supreme Court (<a href ="http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-institute-family-life-advocates-v-becerra/">SCOTUS Blog</a>) (<a href ="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/legislators-advocates-prepare-ahead-abortion-case"target="_blank">Roll Call</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 26 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-1140_5368.pdf"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-26 | In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act? | gjopen | 1 |
2018-06-22 | 2018-03-14 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-14", 0.25], ["2018-03-14", 0.65], ["2018-03-14", 0.325], ["2018-03-15", 0.325], ["2018-03-15", 0.4], ["2018-03-15", 0.1], ["2018-03-15", 0.08], ["2018-03-15", 0.08], ["2018-03-16", 0.315], ["2018-03-16", 0.675], ["2018-03-16", 0.675], ["2018-03-16", 0.55], ["2018-03-17", 0.55], ["2018-03-17", 0.475], ["2018-03-17", 0.34], ["2018-03-18", 0.265], ["2018-03-18", 0.34], ["2018-03-18", 0.4], ["2018-03-18", 0.67], ["2018-03-18", 0.635], ["2018-03-18", 0.625], ["2018-03-19", 0.7], ["2018-03-19", 0.65], ["2018-03-19", 0.65], ["2018-03-19", 0.625], ["2018-03-19", 0.65], ["2018-03-21", 0.65], ["2018-03-21", 0.65], ["2018-03-21", 0.65], ["2018-03-22", 0.6], ["2018-03-22", 0.6], ["2018-03-23", 0.625], ["2018-03-23", 0.625], ["2018-03-25", 0.625], ["2018-03-27", 0.625], ["2018-03-27", 0.625], ["2018-03-27", 0.65], ["2018-03-28", 0.65], ["2018-03-28", 0.625], ["2018-03-29", 0.65], ["2018-03-29", 0.65], ["2018-04-01", 0.65], ["2018-04-01", 0.65], ["2018-04-02", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.625], ["2018-04-04", 0.6], ["2018-04-05", 0.625], ["2018-04-05", 0.65], ["2018-04-05", 0.65], ["2018-04-05", 0.65], ["2018-04-05", 0.625], ["2018-04-06", 0.58], ["2018-04-07", 0.56], ["2018-04-08", 0.56], ["2018-04-09", 0.58], ["2018-04-11", 0.58], ["2018-04-11", 0.59], ["2018-04-12", 0.6], ["2018-04-12", 0.6], ["2018-04-16", 0.625], ["2018-04-17", 0.65], ["2018-04-17", 0.65], ["2018-04-19", 0.625], ["2018-04-19", 0.6], ["2018-04-19", 0.6], ["2018-04-21", 0.58], ["2018-04-25", 0.58], ["2018-04-26", 0.58], ["2018-04-27", 0.555], ["2018-04-28", 0.575], ["2018-04-28", 0.55], ["2018-04-30", 0.6], ["2018-05-01", 0.6], ["2018-05-05", 0.6], ["2018-05-07", 0.6], ["2018-05-07", 0.6], ["2018-05-10", 0.6], ["2018-05-11", 0.6], ["2018-05-12", 0.6], ["2018-05-12", 0.6], ["2018-05-13", 0.575], ["2018-05-14", 0.575], ["2018-05-14", 0.575], ["2018-05-14", 0.575], ["2018-05-14", 0.55], ["2018-05-16", 0.55], ["2018-05-16", 0.575], ["2018-05-17", 0.575], ["2018-05-19", 0.575], ["2018-05-22", 0.575], ["2018-05-22", 0.475], ["2018-05-23", 0.55], ["2018-05-23", 0.4], ["2018-05-24", 0.4], ["2018-05-25", 0.4], ["2018-05-26", 0.4], ["2018-05-26", 0.4], ["2018-05-27", 0.4], ["2018-05-28", 0.4], ["2018-05-31", 0.4], ["2018-06-01", 0.4], ["2018-06-01", 0.375], ["2018-06-03", 0.355], ["2018-06-03", 0.35], ["2018-06-03", 0.355], ["2018-06-04", 0.355], ["2018-06-06", 0.355], ["2018-06-08", 0.355], ["2018-06-11", 0.355], ["2018-06-12", 0.38], ["2018-06-13", 0.4], ["2018-06-14", 0.4], ["2018-06-14", 0.4], ["2018-06-15", 0.4], ["2018-06-15", 0.425], ["2018-06-16", 0.425], ["2018-06-16", 0.38], ["2018-06-17", 0.38], ["2018-06-18", 0.38], ["2018-06-20", 0.38], ["2018-06-20", 0.38], ["2018-06-21", 0.38], ["2018-06-21", 0.375], ["2018-06-21", 0.475], ["2018-06-21", 0.475], ["2018-06-21", 0.475], ["2018-06-21", 0.575], ["2018-06-21", 0.62], ["2018-06-21", 0.62], ["2018-06-21", 0.62]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/901 | Currently, under the Supreme Court’s decision in Quill Corp. v. North Dakota , states and their political subdivisions are not permitted to impose sales taxes on sales made by firms that do not have a physical presence within their jurisdiction (<a href = "https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/91-0194.ZO.html"target="_blank">Cornell Law</a>). This decision has prevented state and local governments from imposing sales taxes on Internet sales (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-tax/trump-administration-backs-states-bid-to-collect-online-sales-taxes-idUSKBN1GI05Z"target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The state of South Dakota is asking the Supreme Court to revisit its decision in Quill (<a href = "http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/south-dakota-v-wayfair-inc"target="_blank">SCOTUS Blog</a>, <a href = "https://www.bna.com/supreme-court-overturn-n57982088329/"target="_blank">Bloomberg BNA</a>, <a href = "https://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/85114.html"target="_blank">E-Commerce Times</a>). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.
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<hr>
The Supreme Court ruled that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state. This question closed as “yes” with an end date of 21 June 2018 (<a href = "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/17-494_j4el.pdf"target="_blank">The Supreme Court of the United States</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-21 | In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state? | gjopen | 1 |
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["2018-11-06", 0.5], ["2018-11-06", 0.5], ["2018-11-06", 0.5], ["2018-11-06", 0.5], ["2018-11-06", 0.5], ["2018-11-06", 0.5], ["2018-11-06", 0.5]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/900 | Sen. Claire McCaskill is seeking re-election to the United States Senate on 6 November 2018. Attorney General Josh Hawley currently leads the Republican field (<a href = "https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html"target="_blank">Real Clear Politics</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-11-06 | Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) be re-elected this November? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2018-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-21", 0.0], ["2018-03-21", 0.03], ["2018-03-21", 0.01], ["2018-03-21", 0.005], ["2018-03-22", 0.075], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.015], ["2018-03-23", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.015], ["2018-03-25", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.025], ["2018-03-25", 0.03], ["2018-03-25", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.05], ["2018-03-26", 0.04], ["2018-03-27", 0.04], ["2018-03-27", 0.05], ["2018-03-27", 0.04], ["2018-03-27", 0.04], ["2018-03-28", 0.05], ["2018-03-28", 0.04], ["2018-03-28", 0.03], ["2018-03-28", 0.03], ["2018-03-29", 0.03], ["2018-03-29", 0.02], ["2018-03-29", 0.0], ["2018-03-30", 0.0], ["2018-03-30", 0.0], ["2018-03-31", 0.0], ["2018-03-31", 0.0], ["2018-04-01", 0.0], ["2018-04-01", 0.0], ["2018-04-01", 0.0], ["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.01], ["2018-04-03", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.045], ["2018-04-04", 0.02], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-05", 0.045], ["2018-04-05", 0.05], ["2018-04-05", 0.05], ["2018-04-06", 0.055], ["2018-04-06", 0.085], ["2018-04-07", 0.07], ["2018-04-07", 0.065], ["2018-04-08", 0.065], ["2018-04-09", 0.06], ["2018-04-10", 0.065], ["2018-04-10", 0.055], ["2018-04-13", 0.06], ["2018-04-13", 0.06], ["2018-04-14", 0.055], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-21", 0.05], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-04-30", 0.05], ["2018-05-01", 0.05], ["2018-05-04", 0.05], ["2018-05-06", 0.055], ["2018-05-10", 0.05], ["2018-05-14", 0.05], ["2018-05-15", 0.05], ["2018-05-15", 0.05], ["2018-05-16", 0.05], ["2018-05-17", 0.05], ["2018-05-22", 0.05], ["2018-05-24", 0.05], ["2018-05-26", 0.05], ["2018-05-27", 0.05], ["2018-05-27", 0.05], ["2018-05-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-01", 0.05], ["2018-06-01", 0.045], ["2018-06-03", 0.05], ["2018-06-03", 0.05], ["2018-06-04", 0.05], ["2018-06-04", 0.05], ["2018-06-06", 0.05], ["2018-06-07", 0.05], ["2018-06-07", 0.05], ["2018-06-07", 0.05], ["2018-06-08", 0.05], ["2018-06-11", 0.04], ["2018-06-12", 0.04], ["2018-06-13", 0.04], ["2018-06-13", 0.035], ["2018-06-13", 0.035], ["2018-06-14", 0.045], ["2018-06-14", 0.04], ["2018-06-14", 0.04], ["2018-06-17", 0.035], ["2018-06-18", 0.035], ["2018-06-18", 0.035], ["2018-06-21", 0.035], ["2018-06-22", 0.04], ["2018-06-23", 0.03], ["2018-06-23", 0.035], ["2018-06-24", 0.035], ["2018-06-26", 0.035], ["2018-06-26", 0.04], ["2018-06-27", 0.045], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-30", 0.07], ["2018-06-30", 0.095], ["2018-07-01", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-04", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.09], ["2018-07-07", 0.09], ["2018-07-09", 0.095], ["2018-07-10", 0.05], ["2018-07-11", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.09], ["2018-07-13", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.05], ["2018-07-17", 0.05], ["2018-07-18", 0.05], ["2018-07-18", 0.07], ["2018-07-19", 0.07], ["2018-07-23", 0.05], ["2018-07-23", 0.09], ["2018-07-25", 0.095], ["2018-07-27", 0.095], ["2018-07-27", 0.095], ["2018-07-29", 0.08], ["2018-07-30", 0.06], ["2018-07-30", 0.05], ["2018-08-01", 0.05], ["2018-08-02", 0.08], ["2018-08-03", 0.095], ["2018-08-04", 0.1], ["2018-08-04", 0.095], ["2018-08-06", 0.095], ["2018-08-09", 0.095], ["2018-08-11", 0.095], ["2018-08-13", 0.095], ["2018-08-16", 0.09], ["2018-08-17", 0.09], ["2018-08-18", 0.09], ["2018-08-19", 0.09], ["2018-08-21", 0.07], ["2018-08-23", 0.095], ["2018-08-23", 0.09], ["2018-08-26", 0.09], ["2018-08-26", 0.09], ["2018-08-27", 0.07], ["2018-08-27", 0.08], ["2018-08-28", 0.07], ["2018-08-29", 0.07], ["2018-09-02", 0.06], ["2018-09-02", 0.08], ["2018-09-04", 0.08], ["2018-09-06", 0.06], ["2018-09-09", 0.05], ["2018-09-11", 0.05], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-15", 0.06], ["2018-09-16", 0.05], ["2018-09-17", 0.05], ["2018-09-18", 0.05], ["2018-09-20", 0.05], ["2018-09-20", 0.05], ["2018-09-20", 0.05], ["2018-09-21", 0.05], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-23", 0.05], ["2018-09-23", 0.05], ["2018-09-23", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-26", 0.04], ["2018-09-28", 0.04], ["2018-09-28", 0.04], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-30", 0.05], ["2018-09-30", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.04], ["2018-10-01", 0.025], ["2018-10-01", 0.02], ["2018-10-03", 0.02], ["2018-10-03", 0.02], ["2018-10-05", 0.02], ["2018-10-06", 0.02], ["2018-10-07", 0.02], ["2018-10-08", 0.02], ["2018-10-08", 0.02], ["2018-10-08", 0.02], ["2018-10-10", 0.02], ["2018-10-10", 0.02], ["2018-10-12", 0.02], ["2018-10-12", 0.02], ["2018-10-12", 0.02], ["2018-10-13", 0.02], ["2018-10-14", 0.02], ["2018-10-15", 0.02], ["2018-10-16", 0.02], ["2018-10-16", 0.02], ["2018-10-18", 0.02], ["2018-10-18", 0.02], ["2018-10-19", 0.015], ["2018-10-20", 0.01], ["2018-10-20", 0.01], ["2018-10-22", 0.01], ["2018-10-22", 0.01], ["2018-10-23", 0.01], ["2018-10-24", 0.01], ["2018-10-24", 0.01], ["2018-10-24", 0.01], ["2018-10-25", 0.01], ["2018-10-27", 0.01], ["2018-10-29", 0.01], ["2018-10-30", 0.01], ["2018-10-31", 0.01], ["2018-10-31", 0.01], ["2018-11-02", 0.01], ["2018-11-02", 0.01], ["2018-11-05", 0.01], ["2018-11-06", 0.01], ["2018-11-06", 0.01], ["2018-11-06", 0.01], ["2018-11-07", 0.01], ["2018-11-07", 0.01], ["2018-11-07", 0.01], ["2018-11-08", 0.01], ["2018-11-08", 0.01], ["2018-11-08", 0.01], ["2018-11-09", 0.01], ["2018-11-10", 0.01], ["2018-11-12", 0.01], ["2018-11-13", 0.01], ["2018-11-13", 0.01], ["2018-11-14", 0.01], ["2018-11-15", 0.01], ["2018-11-15", 0.01], ["2018-11-16", 0.01], ["2018-11-17", 0.01], ["2018-11-20", 0.01], ["2018-11-21", 0.01], ["2018-11-25", 0.01], ["2018-11-26", 0.01], ["2018-11-27", 0.01], ["2018-11-27", 0.01], ["2018-11-30", 0.01], ["2018-12-01", 0.01], ["2018-12-02", 0.01], ["2018-12-04", 0.01], ["2018-12-04", 0.0], ["2018-12-08", 0.0], ["2018-12-08", 0.0], ["2018-12-13", 0.0], ["2018-12-13", 0.0], ["2018-12-14", 0.0], ["2018-12-14", 0.0], ["2018-12-14", 0.0], ["2018-12-18", 0.0], ["2018-12-20", 0.0], ["2018-12-22", 0.0], ["2018-12-25", 0.0], ["2018-12-26", 0.0], ["2018-12-27", 0.0], ["2018-12-28", 0.0], ["2018-12-30", 0.0], ["2018-12-31", 0.0], ["2019-01-01", 0.0], ["2019-01-01", 0.0], ["2019-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/904 | The Trump administration's tariffs on aluminum and steel are at the center of a policy battle in the US and abroad (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trade-is-the-republican-partys-last-stand/2018/03/08/b31c840e-2313-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21738392-america-setting-dangerous-new-precedents-it-tries-curb-imports-looming-global-trade"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/377072-senate-gop-weighs-legislation-over-trump-tariffs"target="_blank">The Hill</a>). Examples of bills which would limit the president's authority over tariffs include, e.g., <a href = "https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/177"target="_blank">Congress.gov</a>, <a href = "https://www.flake.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/1d8429ab-bdd9-4c14-a261-a8bda593fb09/flakenullifytariffbill.pdf"target="_blank">Office of Senator Jeff Flake</a>, <a href = "https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44707.pdf"target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>
<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Before 1 January 2019, will either house of Congress pass a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.01], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.115], ["2018-04-03", 0.17], ["2018-04-04", 0.13], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.08], ["2018-04-05", 0.15], ["2018-04-06", 0.15], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.03], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.02], ["2018-04-09", 0.02], ["2018-04-10", 0.025], ["2018-04-11", 0.025], ["2018-04-13", 0.025], ["2018-04-14", 0.025], ["2018-04-15", 0.035], ["2018-04-15", 0.04], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.06], ["2018-04-16", 0.045], ["2018-04-16", 0.045], ["2018-04-19", 0.045], ["2018-04-19", 0.045], ["2018-04-20", 0.045], ["2018-04-25", 0.045], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.03], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.01], ["2018-05-03", 0.01], ["2018-05-09", 0.01], ["2018-05-10", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-13", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-15", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-17", 0.01], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-20", 0.01], ["2018-06-22", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.015], ["2018-06-23", 0.015], ["2018-06-24", 0.015], ["2018-06-24", 0.02], ["2018-06-25", 0.02], ["2018-06-26", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.125], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-07-01", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/922 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Sudan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.45], ["2018-04-02", 0.45], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.08], ["2018-04-03", 0.18], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.245], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.14], ["2018-04-03", 0.305], ["2018-04-03", 0.26], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-05", 0.25], ["2018-04-06", 0.25], ["2018-04-07", 0.25], ["2018-04-07", 0.2], ["2018-04-07", 0.2], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.25], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.16], ["2018-04-09", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.07], ["2018-04-13", 0.07], ["2018-04-14", 0.09], ["2018-04-14", 0.09], ["2018-04-15", 0.13], ["2018-04-16", 0.13], ["2018-04-19", 0.13], ["2018-04-19", 0.13], ["2018-04-20", 0.13], ["2018-04-21", 0.11], ["2018-04-25", 0.11], ["2018-04-25", 0.11], ["2018-04-28", 0.11], ["2018-04-29", 0.1], ["2018-04-29", 0.07], ["2018-05-01", 0.07], ["2018-05-01", 0.085], ["2018-05-02", 0.085], ["2018-05-02", 0.06], ["2018-05-02", 0.035], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.07], ["2018-05-09", 0.1], ["2018-05-09", 0.1], ["2018-05-11", 0.125], ["2018-05-11", 0.1], ["2018-05-12", 0.1], ["2018-05-14", 0.1], ["2018-05-14", 0.07], ["2018-05-16", 0.07], ["2018-05-17", 0.04], ["2018-05-17", 0.04], ["2018-05-22", 0.04], ["2018-05-22", 0.02], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-27", 0.005], ["2018-05-28", 0.005], ["2018-05-29", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.0], ["2018-06-03", 0.0], ["2018-06-04", 0.0], ["2018-06-08", 0.0], ["2018-06-11", 0.0], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-26", 0.005], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-30", 0.06], ["2018-07-01", 0.06]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/907 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.25], ["2018-04-02", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.075], ["2018-04-03", 0.095], ["2018-04-03", 0.085], ["2018-04-03", 0.14], ["2018-04-03", 0.13], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.01], ["2018-04-04", 0.025], ["2018-04-04", 0.01], ["2018-04-05", 0.0], ["2018-04-05", 0.02], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.0], ["2018-04-06", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.0], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.01], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-11", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-13", 0.01], ["2018-04-14", 0.015], ["2018-04-15", 0.005], ["2018-04-16", 0.005], ["2018-04-16", 0.005], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-20", 0.015], ["2018-04-25", 0.015], ["2018-04-25", 0.015], ["2018-04-29", 0.015], ["2018-05-01", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-09", 0.01], ["2018-05-10", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.005], ["2018-05-16", 0.005], ["2018-05-17", 0.015], ["2018-05-17", 0.015], ["2018-05-22", 0.015], ["2018-05-22", 0.02], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-23", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-26", 0.015], ["2018-05-26", 0.015], ["2018-05-28", 0.015], ["2018-05-29", 0.005], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-03", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-13", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-15", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.015], ["2018-06-17", 0.015], ["2018-06-18", 0.005], ["2018-06-20", 0.005], ["2018-06-22", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-07-01", 0.03]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/910 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.125], ["2018-04-03", 0.11], ["2018-04-03", 0.135], ["2018-04-03", 0.12], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.13], ["2018-04-04", 0.105], ["2018-04-04", 0.06], ["2018-04-04", 0.06], ["2018-04-04", 0.01], ["2018-04-05", 0.0], ["2018-04-05", 0.02], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.025], ["2018-04-06", 0.0], ["2018-04-06", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-08", 0.005], ["2018-04-08", 0.005], ["2018-04-09", 0.005], ["2018-04-10", 0.015], ["2018-04-11", 0.015], ["2018-04-12", 0.015], ["2018-04-12", 0.025], ["2018-04-13", 0.025], ["2018-04-14", 0.03], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.04], ["2018-04-16", 0.04], ["2018-04-19", 0.04], ["2018-04-19", 0.04], ["2018-04-19", 0.04], ["2018-04-20", 0.04], ["2018-04-25", 0.04], ["2018-04-25", 0.04], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-05-01", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.035], ["2018-05-02", 0.025], ["2018-05-09", 0.02], ["2018-05-10", 0.02], ["2018-05-11", 0.02], ["2018-05-12", 0.02], ["2018-05-13", 0.02], ["2018-05-14", 0.02], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.005], ["2018-05-17", 0.005], ["2018-05-20", 0.005], ["2018-05-22", 0.005], ["2018-05-22", 0.005], ["2018-05-24", 0.0], ["2018-05-24", 0.0], ["2018-05-26", 0.0], ["2018-05-26", 0.0], ["2018-05-28", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.0], ["2018-06-03", 0.0], ["2018-06-06", 0.0], ["2018-06-08", 0.0], ["2018-06-11", 0.0], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.005], ["2018-06-17", 0.005], ["2018-06-18", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-28", 0.025], ["2018-06-29", 0.025], ["2018-06-29", 0.025], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/912 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.005], ["2018-04-03", 0.335], ["2018-04-04", 0.33], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.01], ["2018-04-04", 0.005], ["2018-04-05", 0.005], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.025], ["2018-04-07", 0.025], ["2018-04-07", 0.015], ["2018-04-08", 0.03], ["2018-04-09", 0.03], ["2018-04-10", 0.04], ["2018-04-11", 0.04], ["2018-04-12", 0.04], ["2018-04-13", 0.02], ["2018-04-14", 0.03], ["2018-04-15", 0.03], ["2018-04-15", 0.045], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.04], ["2018-04-16", 0.04], ["2018-04-16", 0.045], ["2018-04-19", 0.035], ["2018-04-19", 0.035], ["2018-04-20", 0.035], ["2018-04-25", 0.035], ["2018-04-25", 0.035], ["2018-04-29", 0.045], ["2018-04-29", 0.03], ["2018-04-29", 0.03], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.02], ["2018-05-03", 0.02], ["2018-05-03", 0.02], ["2018-05-09", 0.02], ["2018-05-10", 0.02], ["2018-05-11", 0.015], ["2018-05-12", 0.015], ["2018-05-13", 0.035], ["2018-05-14", 0.035], ["2018-05-14", 0.015], ["2018-05-16", 0.015], ["2018-05-17", 0.015], ["2018-05-22", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.015], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.02], ["2018-05-26", 0.02], ["2018-05-26", 0.02], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-05", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-13", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-15", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-17", 0.01], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-20", 0.01], ["2018-06-22", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-07-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/916 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.01], ["2018-04-02", 0.35], ["2018-04-02", 0.425], ["2018-04-03", 0.26], ["2018-04-03", 0.06], ["2018-04-03", 0.1], ["2018-04-03", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.06], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.1], ["2018-04-05", 0.09], ["2018-04-06", 0.09], ["2018-04-06", 0.07], ["2018-04-06", 0.035], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.03], ["2018-04-07", 0.015], ["2018-04-08", 0.015], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-10", 0.065], ["2018-04-11", 0.065], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.08], ["2018-04-15", 0.065], ["2018-04-16", 0.045], ["2018-04-16", 0.045], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.05], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-05-01", 0.05], ["2018-05-02", 0.045], ["2018-05-02", 0.045], ["2018-05-02", 0.05], ["2018-05-02", 0.05], ["2018-05-03", 0.05], ["2018-05-03", 0.05], ["2018-05-03", 0.05], ["2018-05-06", 0.05], ["2018-05-07", 0.05], ["2018-05-08", 0.05], ["2018-05-08", 0.05], ["2018-05-09", 0.05], ["2018-05-10", 0.05], ["2018-05-11", 0.04], ["2018-05-12", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.04], ["2018-05-14", 0.02], ["2018-05-15", 0.025], ["2018-05-15", 0.025], ["2018-05-15", 0.025], ["2018-05-16", 0.025], ["2018-05-17", 0.025], ["2018-05-21", 0.03], ["2018-05-22", 0.03], ["2018-05-22", 0.03], ["2018-05-24", 0.085], ["2018-05-24", 0.085], ["2018-05-26", 0.085], ["2018-05-26", 0.085], ["2018-05-28", 0.085], ["2018-05-30", 0.085], ["2018-05-31", 0.085], ["2018-06-01", 0.085], ["2018-06-02", 0.085], ["2018-06-02", 0.145], ["2018-06-04", 0.145], ["2018-06-08", 0.145], ["2018-06-11", 0.145], ["2018-06-12", 0.14], ["2018-06-13", 0.14], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-15", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-17", 0.15], ["2018-06-18", 0.15], ["2018-06-20", 0.15], ["2018-06-22", 0.15], ["2018-06-23", 0.11], ["2018-06-23", 0.125], ["2018-06-23", 0.12], ["2018-06-24", 0.12], ["2018-06-24", 0.145], ["2018-06-26", 0.135], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.135], ["2018-06-29", 0.135], ["2018-06-29", 0.135], ["2018-06-29", 0.135], ["2018-07-01", 0.135]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/919 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.25], ["2018-04-02", 0.1], ["2018-04-03", 0.275], ["2018-04-03", 0.23], ["2018-04-03", 0.08], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.125], ["2018-04-04", 0.125], ["2018-04-04", 0.075], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-05", 0.15], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-06", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.02], ["2018-04-08", 0.035], ["2018-04-08", 0.035], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-10", 0.155], ["2018-04-10", 0.15], ["2018-04-10", 0.18], ["2018-04-11", 0.18], ["2018-04-12", 0.165], ["2018-04-13", 0.165], ["2018-04-14", 0.165], ["2018-04-14", 0.215], ["2018-04-14", 0.18], ["2018-04-15", 0.15], ["2018-04-15", 0.165], ["2018-04-15", 0.165], ["2018-04-16", 0.125], ["2018-04-16", 0.125], ["2018-04-16", 0.13], ["2018-04-16", 0.13], ["2018-04-19", 0.1], ["2018-04-19", 0.1], ["2018-04-20", 0.1], ["2018-04-21", 0.115], ["2018-04-25", 0.115], ["2018-04-25", 0.115], ["2018-04-29", 0.14], ["2018-04-29", 0.115], ["2018-05-01", 0.115], ["2018-05-02", 0.115], ["2018-05-02", 0.115], ["2018-05-04", 0.115], ["2018-05-09", 0.13], ["2018-05-10", 0.13], ["2018-05-11", 0.13], ["2018-05-12", 0.13], ["2018-05-14", 0.13], ["2018-05-14", 0.13], ["2018-05-17", 0.13], ["2018-05-17", 0.13], ["2018-05-21", 0.13], ["2018-05-22", 0.13], ["2018-05-24", 0.095], ["2018-05-24", 0.095], ["2018-05-25", 0.13], ["2018-05-26", 0.13], ["2018-05-26", 0.13], ["2018-05-28", 0.13], ["2018-05-30", 0.13], ["2018-05-30", 0.13], ["2018-05-30", 0.13], ["2018-05-31", 0.13], ["2018-06-01", 0.13], ["2018-06-02", 0.14], ["2018-06-04", 0.14], ["2018-06-06", 0.14], ["2018-06-08", 0.14], ["2018-06-11", 0.14], ["2018-06-12", 0.14], ["2018-06-12", 0.1], ["2018-06-13", 0.115], ["2018-06-13", 0.115], ["2018-06-13", 0.14], ["2018-06-13", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-14", 0.15], ["2018-06-15", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-16", 0.15], ["2018-06-17", 0.15], ["2018-06-18", 0.15], ["2018-06-20", 0.15], ["2018-06-22", 0.15], ["2018-06-23", 0.25], ["2018-06-23", 0.275], ["2018-06-23", 0.275], ["2018-06-24", 0.275], ["2018-06-24", 0.2], ["2018-06-25", 0.2], ["2018-06-26", 0.2], ["2018-06-26", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.35], ["2018-06-27", 0.275], ["2018-06-27", 0.275], ["2018-06-27", 0.275], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-28", 0.2], ["2018-06-29", 0.2], ["2018-06-29", 0.2], ["2018-06-29", 0.19], ["2018-06-29", 0.19], ["2018-06-30", 0.2], ["2018-07-01", 0.2]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/921 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Yemen from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.5], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.335], ["2018-04-03", 0.185], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.4], ["2018-04-03", 0.375], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.11], ["2018-04-04", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-05", 0.175], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-07", 0.085], ["2018-04-07", 0.06], ["2018-04-07", 0.07], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-07", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-09", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-14", 0.07], ["2018-04-14", 0.07], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-14", 0.09], ["2018-04-14", 0.115], ["2018-04-15", 0.095], ["2018-04-15", 0.095], ["2018-04-16", 0.09], ["2018-04-16", 0.09], ["2018-04-16", 0.1], ["2018-04-17", 0.12], ["2018-04-18", 0.12], ["2018-04-19", 0.12], ["2018-04-19", 0.12], ["2018-04-20", 0.12], ["2018-04-21", 0.12], ["2018-04-25", 0.12], ["2018-04-26", 0.12], ["2018-04-28", 0.14], ["2018-04-29", 0.15], ["2018-04-30", 0.15], ["2018-05-01", 0.125], ["2018-05-01", 0.125], ["2018-05-02", 0.125], ["2018-05-02", 0.125], ["2018-05-03", 0.2], ["2018-05-03", 0.2], ["2018-05-07", 0.2], ["2018-05-08", 0.2], ["2018-05-09", 0.2], ["2018-05-10", 0.2], ["2018-05-10", 0.25], ["2018-05-11", 0.31], ["2018-05-11", 0.32], ["2018-05-12", 0.32], ["2018-05-13", 0.34], ["2018-05-14", 0.34], ["2018-05-14", 0.32], ["2018-05-16", 0.32], ["2018-05-17", 0.28], ["2018-05-17", 0.28], ["2018-05-18", 0.28], ["2018-05-18", 0.25], ["2018-05-18", 0.31], ["2018-05-21", 0.33], ["2018-05-22", 0.33], ["2018-05-22", 0.33], ["2018-05-22", 0.32], ["2018-05-24", 0.32], ["2018-05-24", 0.32], ["2018-05-24", 0.32], ["2018-05-26", 0.32], ["2018-05-26", 0.32], ["2018-05-28", 0.32], ["2018-05-29", 0.32], ["2018-05-29", 0.32], ["2018-05-30", 0.33], ["2018-05-31", 0.33], ["2018-06-01", 0.33], ["2018-06-02", 0.33], ["2018-06-02", 0.29], ["2018-06-02", 0.31], ["2018-06-02", 0.31], ["2018-06-03", 0.34], ["2018-06-03", 0.34], ["2018-06-04", 0.34], ["2018-06-05", 0.35], ["2018-06-08", 0.35], ["2018-06-08", 0.35], ["2018-06-11", 0.35], ["2018-06-12", 0.34], ["2018-06-13", 0.34], ["2018-06-14", 0.34], ["2018-06-15", 0.34], ["2018-06-15", 0.34], ["2018-06-16", 0.34], ["2018-06-16", 0.325], ["2018-06-17", 0.325], ["2018-06-18", 0.3], ["2018-06-20", 0.3], ["2018-06-22", 0.3], ["2018-06-23", 0.3], ["2018-06-23", 0.3], ["2018-06-23", 0.3], ["2018-06-24", 0.3], ["2018-06-24", 0.3], ["2018-06-25", 0.3], ["2018-06-26", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.295], ["2018-06-27", 0.29], ["2018-06-27", 0.28], ["2018-06-28", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-06-30", 0.265], ["2018-07-01", 0.265]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/906 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this<span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span><p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as Yes. (<font color="#166b76"><span style="outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;"><u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u></span></font>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?
| gjopen | 1 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.275], ["2018-04-03", 0.4], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.2], ["2018-04-04", 0.075], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.02], ["2018-04-09", 0.02], ["2018-04-10", 0.015], ["2018-04-10", 0.015], ["2018-04-10", 0.035], ["2018-04-11", 0.035], ["2018-04-12", 0.02], ["2018-04-13", 0.02], ["2018-04-14", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-20", 0.03], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-05-01", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-07", 0.02], ["2018-05-09", 0.02], ["2018-05-10", 0.02], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-19", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-23", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.005], ["2018-05-31", 0.005], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.005], ["2018-06-02", 0.005], ["2018-06-04", 0.005], ["2018-06-04", 0.005], ["2018-06-08", 0.005], ["2018-06-11", 0.005], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.015], ["2018-06-30", 0.035], ["2018-07-01", 0.035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/909 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.125], ["2018-04-03", 0.105], ["2018-04-03", 0.08], ["2018-04-03", 0.095], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.32], ["2018-04-03", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.165], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-05", 0.04], ["2018-04-05", 0.025], ["2018-04-06", 0.02], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.015], ["2018-04-09", 0.01], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-11", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.02], ["2018-04-13", 0.02], ["2018-04-14", 0.025], ["2018-04-15", 0.025], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.03], ["2018-04-20", 0.03], ["2018-04-23", 0.03], ["2018-04-25", 0.03], ["2018-04-25", 0.03], ["2018-04-29", 0.03], ["2018-04-29", 0.03], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-03", 0.01], ["2018-05-09", 0.01], ["2018-05-10", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-13", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.005], ["2018-06-01", 0.005], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-13", 0.01], ["2018-06-14", 0.01], ["2018-06-15", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-16", 0.01], ["2018-06-17", 0.01], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-20", 0.01], ["2018-06-22", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.035], ["2018-06-29", 0.035], ["2018-06-29", 0.035], ["2018-06-29", 0.035], ["2018-07-01", 0.035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/914 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(22, 107, 118); outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; outline-offset: -2px;">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.025], ["2018-04-03", 0.075], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.265], ["2018-04-04", 0.215], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-06", 0.02], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-08", 0.005], ["2018-04-09", 0.005], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-11", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-13", 0.015], ["2018-04-14", 0.02], ["2018-04-15", 0.01], ["2018-04-15", 0.015], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.02], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-20", 0.015], ["2018-04-24", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-29", 0.01], ["2018-05-01", 0.02], ["2018-05-01", 0.02], ["2018-05-02", 0.02], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-09", 0.015], ["2018-05-10", 0.015], ["2018-05-11", 0.02], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-12", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-14", 0.01], ["2018-05-16", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-24", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-26", 0.01], ["2018-05-28", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-30", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-05-31", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-01", 0.01], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-03", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.005], ["2018-06-15", 0.005], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-19", 0.01], ["2018-06-20", 0.01], ["2018-06-22", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.005], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.01], ["2018-06-26", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.04], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-30", 0.04], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/911 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.6], ["2018-04-03", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.275], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.225], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.3], ["2018-04-05", 0.325], ["2018-04-06", 0.325], ["2018-04-06", 0.325], ["2018-04-06", 0.225], ["2018-04-07", 0.15], ["2018-04-07", 0.08], ["2018-04-07", 0.06], ["2018-04-08", 0.07], ["2018-04-09", 0.055], ["2018-04-10", 0.055], ["2018-04-11", 0.055], ["2018-04-12", 0.07], ["2018-04-13", 0.055], ["2018-04-15", 0.06], ["2018-04-15", 0.17], ["2018-04-15", 0.195], ["2018-04-16", 0.195], ["2018-04-16", 0.195], ["2018-04-16", 0.235], ["2018-04-19", 0.235], ["2018-04-20", 0.235], ["2018-04-21", 0.25], ["2018-04-23", 0.25], ["2018-04-25", 0.25], ["2018-04-26", 0.25], ["2018-04-29", 0.25], ["2018-04-29", 0.25], ["2018-05-01", 0.25], ["2018-05-02", 0.25], ["2018-05-03", 0.3], ["2018-05-03", 0.3], ["2018-05-06", 0.3], ["2018-05-09", 0.325], ["2018-05-10", 0.325], ["2018-05-10", 0.325], ["2018-05-11", 0.325], ["2018-05-12", 0.325], ["2018-05-14", 0.325], ["2018-05-14", 0.3], ["2018-05-16", 0.3], ["2018-05-17", 0.3], ["2018-05-18", 0.3], ["2018-05-21", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.3], ["2018-05-22", 0.27], ["2018-05-24", 0.17], ["2018-05-24", 0.155], ["2018-05-26", 0.155], ["2018-05-26", 0.11], ["2018-05-28", 0.11], ["2018-05-30", 0.11], ["2018-05-31", 0.09], ["2018-06-01", 0.09], ["2018-06-02", 0.1], ["2018-06-04", 0.1], ["2018-06-05", 0.09], ["2018-06-08", 0.09], ["2018-06-11", 0.09], ["2018-06-11", 0.09], ["2018-06-12", 0.09], ["2018-06-13", 0.09], ["2018-06-14", 0.09], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-15", 0.1], ["2018-06-16", 0.1], ["2018-06-16", 0.11], ["2018-06-17", 0.095], ["2018-06-18", 0.095], ["2018-06-18", 0.07], ["2018-06-20", 0.065], ["2018-06-22", 0.065], ["2018-06-23", 0.09], ["2018-06-23", 0.08], ["2018-06-23", 0.07], ["2018-06-24", 0.07], ["2018-06-24", 0.07], ["2018-06-26", 0.07], ["2018-06-27", 0.085], ["2018-06-27", 0.125], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.135], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.14], ["2018-07-01", 0.14]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/918 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.1], ["2018-04-02", 0.55], ["2018-04-02", 0.525], ["2018-04-03", 0.26], ["2018-04-03", 0.235], ["2018-04-03", 0.5], ["2018-04-03", 0.45], ["2018-04-03", 0.45], ["2018-04-03", 0.325], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.175], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-05", 0.04], ["2018-04-06", 0.04], ["2018-04-06", 0.04], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-06", 0.145], ["2018-04-07", 0.145], ["2018-04-07", 0.14], ["2018-04-07", 0.13], ["2018-04-07", 0.13], ["2018-04-08", 0.14], ["2018-04-09", 0.13], ["2018-04-10", 0.135], ["2018-04-10", 0.105], ["2018-04-11", 0.105], ["2018-04-12", 0.065], ["2018-04-12", 0.105], ["2018-04-13", 0.14], ["2018-04-14", 0.2], ["2018-04-15", 0.2], ["2018-04-15", 0.2], ["2018-04-16", 0.15], ["2018-04-16", 0.15], ["2018-04-16", 0.125], ["2018-04-19", 0.175], ["2018-04-19", 0.175], ["2018-04-20", 0.15], ["2018-04-22", 0.15], ["2018-04-25", 0.175], ["2018-04-25", 0.175], ["2018-04-29", 0.175], ["2018-04-29", 0.175], ["2018-05-01", 0.175], ["2018-05-02", 0.175], ["2018-05-02", 0.2], ["2018-05-03", 0.2], ["2018-05-09", 0.25], ["2018-05-10", 0.25], ["2018-05-10", 0.25], ["2018-05-11", 0.2], ["2018-05-12", 0.2], ["2018-05-13", 0.2], ["2018-05-14", 0.2], ["2018-05-14", 0.2], ["2018-05-16", 0.2], ["2018-05-17", 0.2], ["2018-05-21", 0.1], ["2018-05-22", 0.1], ["2018-05-22", 0.15], ["2018-05-24", 0.15], ["2018-05-24", 0.125], ["2018-05-24", 0.075], ["2018-05-24", 0.075], ["2018-05-26", 0.075], ["2018-05-26", 0.075], ["2018-05-28", 0.075], ["2018-05-30", 0.075], ["2018-05-30", 0.075], ["2018-05-31", 0.075], ["2018-06-01", 0.075], ["2018-06-02", 0.1], ["2018-06-03", 0.1], ["2018-06-04", 0.1], ["2018-06-04", 0.05], ["2018-06-08", 0.05], ["2018-06-10", 0.05], ["2018-06-11", 0.05], ["2018-06-12", 0.05], ["2018-06-12", 0.05], ["2018-06-13", 0.05], ["2018-06-14", 0.05], ["2018-06-15", 0.05], ["2018-06-16", 0.05], ["2018-06-16", 0.05], ["2018-06-17", 0.05], ["2018-06-18", 0.05], ["2018-06-19", 0.075], ["2018-06-20", 0.075], ["2018-06-22", 0.075], ["2018-06-23", 0.075], ["2018-06-23", 0.1], ["2018-06-23", 0.1], ["2018-06-23", 0.1], ["2018-06-24", 0.1], ["2018-06-24", 0.1], ["2018-06-26", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.11], ["2018-06-27", 0.135], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-30", 0.15], ["2018-06-30", 0.15], ["2018-07-01", 0.15]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/913 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.55], ["2018-04-02", 0.2], ["2018-04-03", 0.11], ["2018-04-03", 0.235], ["2018-04-03", 0.185], ["2018-04-03", 0.395], ["2018-04-03", 0.225], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.1], ["2018-04-04", 0.06], ["2018-04-05", 0.015], ["2018-04-06", 0.055], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-08", 0.015], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-09", 0.035], ["2018-04-10", 0.06], ["2018-04-10", 0.07], ["2018-04-11", 0.07], ["2018-04-11", 0.07], ["2018-04-12", 0.085], ["2018-04-15", 0.12], ["2018-04-15", 0.085], ["2018-04-16", 0.07], ["2018-04-16", 0.07], ["2018-04-16", 0.07], ["2018-04-19", 0.06], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.04], ["2018-04-25", 0.04], ["2018-04-25", 0.04], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-04-29", 0.04], ["2018-05-01", 0.04], ["2018-05-02", 0.04], ["2018-05-03", 0.04], ["2018-05-03", 0.04], ["2018-05-07", 0.025], ["2018-05-09", 0.04], ["2018-05-10", 0.04], ["2018-05-11", 0.03], ["2018-05-12", 0.03], ["2018-05-13", 0.03], ["2018-05-14", 0.03], ["2018-05-14", 0.05], ["2018-05-14", 0.05], ["2018-05-17", 0.05], ["2018-05-19", 0.05], ["2018-05-21", 0.05], ["2018-05-22", 0.05], ["2018-05-22", 0.04], ["2018-05-24", 0.03], ["2018-05-24", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-28", 0.03], ["2018-05-30", 0.05], ["2018-05-30", 0.05], ["2018-05-31", 0.05], ["2018-06-01", 0.05], ["2018-06-02", 0.05], ["2018-06-02", 0.055], ["2018-06-04", 0.055], ["2018-06-08", 0.055], ["2018-06-11", 0.055], ["2018-06-12", 0.05], ["2018-06-13", 0.05], ["2018-06-14", 0.05], ["2018-06-14", 0.055], ["2018-06-15", 0.055], ["2018-06-16", 0.055], ["2018-06-16", 0.055], ["2018-06-17", 0.055], ["2018-06-18", 0.05], ["2018-06-20", 0.05], ["2018-06-22", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-23", 0.05], ["2018-06-24", 0.05], ["2018-06-24", 0.05], ["2018-06-26", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.055], ["2018-06-27", 0.06], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.07], ["2018-06-28", 0.055], ["2018-06-29", 0.055], ["2018-06-29", 0.055], ["2018-07-01", 0.055]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/917 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-02", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.2], ["2018-04-03", 0.03], ["2018-04-03", 0.13], ["2018-04-03", 0.425], ["2018-04-03", 0.33], ["2018-04-03", 0.33], ["2018-04-03", 0.24], ["2018-04-03", 0.145], ["2018-04-04", 0.07], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.04], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.03], ["2018-04-05", 0.04], ["2018-04-06", 0.04], ["2018-04-06", 0.03], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.005], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.01], ["2018-04-10", 0.01], ["2018-04-12", 0.02], ["2018-04-12", 0.025], ["2018-04-13", 0.025], ["2018-04-15", 0.01], ["2018-04-16", 0.01], ["2018-04-16", 0.01], ["2018-04-19", 0.01], ["2018-04-20", 0.01], ["2018-04-24", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-25", 0.01], ["2018-04-26", 0.01], ["2018-04-29", 0.01], ["2018-05-01", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.01], ["2018-05-02", 0.015], ["2018-05-02", 0.025], ["2018-05-02", 0.035], ["2018-05-02", 0.095], ["2018-05-03", 0.095], ["2018-05-03", 0.095], ["2018-05-04", 0.095], ["2018-05-05", 0.095], ["2018-05-06", 0.38], ["2018-05-08", 0.38], ["2018-05-09", 0.81], ["2018-05-09", 0.9], ["2018-05-10", 0.9], ["2018-05-11", 0.9], ["2018-05-11", 0.9], ["2018-05-12", 0.9], ["2018-05-14", 0.9], ["2018-05-14", 0.9], ["2018-05-15", 0.91], ["2018-05-17", 0.92], ["2018-05-17", 0.92], ["2018-05-22", 0.92], ["2018-05-22", 0.92], ["2018-05-22", 0.92], ["2018-05-23", 0.91], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-24", 0.9], ["2018-05-26", 0.9], ["2018-05-26", 0.9], ["2018-05-26", 0.9], ["2018-05-28", 0.9], ["2018-05-29", 0.92], ["2018-05-30", 0.91], ["2018-05-30", 0.93], ["2018-05-30", 0.93], ["2018-05-31", 0.93], ["2018-06-01", 0.93], ["2018-06-02", 0.91], ["2018-06-03", 0.91], ["2018-06-04", 0.905], ["2018-06-08", 0.905], ["2018-06-09", 0.9], ["2018-06-11", 0.9], ["2018-06-12", 0.91], ["2018-06-13", 0.91], ["2018-06-14", 0.92], ["2018-06-15", 0.92], ["2018-06-16", 0.92], ["2018-06-16", 0.91], ["2018-06-17", 0.91], ["2018-06-18", 0.91], ["2018-06-19", 0.91], ["2018-06-20", 0.91], ["2018-06-22", 0.91], ["2018-06-23", 0.925], ["2018-06-23", 0.92], ["2018-06-23", 0.92], ["2018-06-23", 0.92], ["2018-06-24", 0.92], ["2018-06-24", 0.92], ["2018-06-26", 0.92], ["2018-06-27", 0.86], ["2018-06-27", 0.575], ["2018-06-27", 0.575], ["2018-06-28", 0.35], ["2018-06-28", 0.35], ["2018-06-29", 0.35], ["2018-06-29", 0.35], ["2018-06-30", 0.35], ["2018-06-30", 0.35], ["2018-07-01", 0.35]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/908 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as Yes. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?
| gjopen | 1 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.0], ["2018-04-03", 0.04], ["2018-04-03", 0.05], ["2018-04-03", 0.17], ["2018-04-03", 0.135], ["2018-04-04", 0.02], ["2018-04-04", 0.03], ["2018-04-04", 0.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.005], ["2018-04-04", 0.015], ["2018-04-04", 0.005], ["2018-04-05", 0.01], ["2018-04-05", 0.02], ["2018-04-06", 0.015], ["2018-04-06", 0.01], ["2018-04-07", 0.025], ["2018-04-07", 0.0], ["2018-04-07", 0.01], ["2018-04-08", 0.01], ["2018-04-09", 0.0], ["2018-04-10", 0.005], ["2018-04-11", 0.005], ["2018-04-12", 0.005], ["2018-04-12", 0.01], ["2018-04-13", 0.005], ["2018-04-14", 0.01], ["2018-04-15", 0.01], ["2018-04-15", 0.04], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-16", 0.03], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-19", 0.015], ["2018-04-20", 0.015], ["2018-04-25", 0.015], ["2018-04-29", 0.02], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-01", 0.03], ["2018-05-02", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.035], ["2018-05-03", 0.03], ["2018-05-03", 0.03], ["2018-05-05", 0.05], ["2018-05-09", 0.05], ["2018-05-10", 0.05], ["2018-05-11", 0.035], ["2018-05-12", 0.035], ["2018-05-13", 0.05], ["2018-05-14", 0.05], ["2018-05-14", 0.035], ["2018-05-16", 0.035], ["2018-05-17", 0.035], ["2018-05-22", 0.035], ["2018-05-24", 0.035], ["2018-05-24", 0.02], ["2018-05-24", 0.02], ["2018-05-26", 0.02], ["2018-05-26", 0.02], ["2018-05-28", 0.02], ["2018-05-30", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.01], ["2018-06-04", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-08", 0.01], ["2018-06-11", 0.01], ["2018-06-12", 0.0], ["2018-06-13", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-18", 0.0], ["2018-06-19", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-26", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-30", 0.01], ["2018-07-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/915 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?
| gjopen | 0 |
2019-05-20 | 2018-04-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-02", 0.65], ["2018-04-03", 0.55], ["2018-04-03", 0.28], ["2018-04-03", 0.28], ["2018-04-03", 0.23], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.43], ["2018-04-04", 0.49], ["2018-04-04", 0.49], ["2018-04-04", 0.545], ["2018-04-04", 0.43], ["2018-04-04", 0.35], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-05", 0.515], ["2018-04-06", 0.225], ["2018-04-06", 0.125], ["2018-04-06", 0.1], ["2018-04-07", 0.1], ["2018-04-07", 0.125], ["2018-04-07", 0.075], ["2018-04-08", 0.15], ["2018-04-08", 0.05], ["2018-04-09", 0.05], ["2018-04-10", 0.04], ["2018-04-11", 0.04], ["2018-04-12", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-16", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.05], ["2018-04-21", 0.075], ["2018-04-25", 0.075], ["2018-04-25", 0.075], ["2018-04-29", 0.075], ["2018-04-29", 0.075], ["2018-05-01", 0.075], ["2018-05-02", 0.075], ["2018-05-03", 0.085], ["2018-05-03", 0.1], ["2018-05-03", 0.1], ["2018-05-03", 0.16], ["2018-05-05", 0.18], ["2018-05-06", 0.18], ["2018-05-07", 0.195], ["2018-05-09", 0.235], ["2018-05-10", 0.235], ["2018-05-11", 0.195], ["2018-05-12", 0.195], ["2018-05-14", 0.195], ["2018-05-14", 0.195], ["2018-05-14", 0.18], ["2018-05-16", 0.18], ["2018-05-17", 0.2], ["2018-05-17", 0.2], ["2018-05-17", 0.2], ["2018-05-21", 0.21], ["2018-05-21", 0.205], ["2018-05-22", 0.205], ["2018-05-22", 0.205], ["2018-05-23", 0.205], ["2018-05-24", 0.205], ["2018-05-24", 0.205], ["2018-05-26", 0.205], ["2018-05-26", 0.205], ["2018-05-27", 0.21], ["2018-05-28", 0.21], ["2018-05-30", 0.2], ["2018-05-31", 0.2], ["2018-06-01", 0.2], ["2018-06-02", 0.205], ["2018-06-04", 0.205], ["2018-06-08", 0.205], ["2018-06-09", 0.2], ["2018-06-11", 0.2], ["2018-06-12", 0.165], ["2018-06-13", 0.165], ["2018-06-14", 0.165], ["2018-06-14", 0.14], ["2018-06-15", 0.14], ["2018-06-16", 0.12], ["2018-06-16", 0.115], ["2018-06-16", 0.14], ["2018-06-17", 0.14], ["2018-06-18", 0.14], ["2018-06-20", 0.14], ["2018-06-22", 0.14], ["2018-06-23", 0.13], ["2018-06-23", 0.13], ["2018-06-23", 0.13], ["2018-06-24", 0.13], ["2018-06-25", 0.13], ["2018-06-26", 0.13], ["2018-06-27", 0.14], ["2018-06-27", 0.14], ["2018-06-27", 0.115], ["2018-06-28", 0.1], ["2018-06-29", 0.1], ["2018-06-29", 0.1], ["2018-06-30", 0.13], ["2018-07-01", 0.13]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/920 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href="http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/" target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and will be resolved in April 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Myanmar from April 2018 to March 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples" target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2" target="_blank">here</a> for GJÍs FAQ on forecasting questions like this.<p></p><hr><p></p><p>This question closed as No. (<u><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/ewpapril2018mar2019" target="_blank">EWP/GJOpen</a></u>)</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-11-07 | 2018-04-04 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-04", 0.4], ["2018-04-04", 1.0], ["2018-04-04", 0.5], ["2018-04-04", 0.375], ["2018-04-04", 0.65], ["2018-04-04", 0.75], ["2018-04-04", 0.55], ["2018-04-04", 0.44], ["2018-04-05", 0.665], ["2018-04-05", 0.29], ["2018-04-05", 0.24], ["2018-04-05", 0.23], ["2018-04-06", 0.23], ["2018-04-06", 0.315], ["2018-04-06", 0.215], ["2018-04-06", 0.29], ["2018-04-06", 0.23], ["2018-04-06", 0.3], ["2018-04-06", 0.325], ["2018-04-06", 0.375], ["2018-04-06", 0.385], ["2018-04-06", 0.42], ["2018-04-06", 0.35], ["2018-04-06", 0.36], ["2018-04-06", 0.385], ["2018-04-06", 0.385], ["2018-04-07", 0.4], ["2018-04-07", 0.4], ["2018-04-07", 0.41], ["2018-04-07", 0.435], ["2018-04-07", 0.41], ["2018-04-07", 0.42], ["2018-04-07", 0.42], ["2018-04-07", 0.41], ["2018-04-07", 0.4], ["2018-04-07", 0.385], ["2018-04-08", 0.385], ["2018-04-08", 0.37], ["2018-04-08", 0.35], ["2018-04-08", 0.375], ["2018-04-08", 0.375], ["2018-04-08", 0.375], ["2018-04-08", 0.375], 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0.5], ["2018-10-24", 0.5], ["2018-10-24", 0.505], ["2018-10-24", 0.5], ["2018-10-24", 0.5], ["2018-10-24", 0.5], ["2018-10-25", 0.5], ["2018-10-25", 0.5], ["2018-10-26", 0.5], ["2018-10-26", 0.5], ["2018-10-26", 0.5], ["2018-10-26", 0.5], ["2018-10-27", 0.51], ["2018-10-27", 0.52], ["2018-10-27", 0.52], ["2018-10-27", 0.52], ["2018-10-27", 0.53], ["2018-10-27", 0.53], ["2018-10-28", 0.53], ["2018-10-28", 0.53], ["2018-10-28", 0.53], ["2018-10-28", 0.53], ["2018-10-28", 0.545], ["2018-10-28", 0.53], ["2018-10-29", 0.53], ["2018-10-29", 0.53], ["2018-10-29", 0.53], ["2018-10-29", 0.53], ["2018-10-30", 0.515], ["2018-10-30", 0.515], ["2018-10-30", 0.515], ["2018-10-30", 0.505], ["2018-10-30", 0.505], ["2018-10-30", 0.5], ["2018-10-31", 0.5], ["2018-10-31", 0.5], ["2018-10-31", 0.505], ["2018-10-31", 0.505], ["2018-11-01", 0.5], ["2018-11-01", 0.505], ["2018-11-01", 0.52], ["2018-11-02", 0.52], ["2018-11-02", 0.52], ["2018-11-02", 0.52], ["2018-11-02", 0.52], ["2018-11-02", 0.52], ["2018-11-03", 0.505], ["2018-11-03", 0.505], ["2018-11-03", 0.505], ["2018-11-04", 0.5], ["2018-11-04", 0.5], ["2018-11-04", 0.5], ["2018-11-04", 0.5], ["2018-11-04", 0.5], ["2018-11-04", 0.5], ["2018-11-04", 0.5], ["2018-11-05", 0.5], ["2018-11-05", 0.5], ["2018-11-05", 0.5], ["2018-11-05", 0.5], ["2018-11-05", 0.5], ["2018-11-05", 0.5], ["2018-11-06", 0.49], ["2018-11-06", 0.49], ["2018-11-06", 0.49], ["2018-11-06", 0.49], ["2018-11-06", 0.49], ["2018-11-06", 0.49]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/924 | Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) is seeking re-election on 6 November 2018 (<a href = "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2018"target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-11-06 | Will Dean Heller (R-NV) be re-elected this November? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-12 | 2018-04-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.0], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.2], ["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.15], ["2018-04-11", 0.225], ["2018-04-11", 0.175], ["2018-04-11", 0.175], ["2018-04-11", 0.15], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12", 0.1], ["2018-04-12", 0.1], ["2018-04-12", 0.09], ["2018-04-12", 0.08], ["2018-04-12", 0.055], ["2018-04-12", 0.08], ["2018-04-12", 0.08], ["2018-04-12", 0.08], ["2018-04-12", 0.09], ["2018-04-12", 0.09], ["2018-04-12", 0.055], ["2018-04-12", 0.03], ["2018-04-12", 0.03], ["2018-04-12", 0.03], ["2018-04-13", 0.05], ["2018-04-13", 0.075], ["2018-04-13", 0.075], ["2018-04-13", 0.075], ["2018-04-13", 0.075], ["2018-04-13", 0.1], ["2018-04-13", 0.1], ["2018-04-13", 0.1], ["2018-04-13", 0.1], ["2018-04-13", 0.1], ["2018-04-13", 0.075], ["2018-04-13", 0.1], ["2018-04-13", 0.075], ["2018-04-13", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 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["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-26", 0.0], ["2018-06-26", 0.0], ["2018-06-26", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/926 | A combination of missed production targets, a deadly accident, high levels of debt, and a downgraded credit rating have put stress on Tesla's stock price (<a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/tesla-first-quarter-production-totaled-34494-vehicles-40-percent-increase-from-previous-quarter.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US"target="_blanK">Bloomberg</a>.
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<hr>
On 29 June, 2018, Tesla stock closed at <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSLA:US"target="_blank">342.95</a>. This question closed as "No" with an end date of 29 June 2018.
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| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-29 | Will Tesla stock (TSLA:US) close below $200 on 29 June 2018?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-08-03 | 2018-04-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.0], ["2018-04-11", 0.0], ["2018-04-11", 0.075], ["2018-04-11", 0.085], ["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.075], ["2018-04-12", 0.075], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.33], ["2018-04-13", 0.19], ["2018-04-13", 0.035], ["2018-04-13", 0.015], ["2018-04-13", 0.015], ["2018-04-13", 0.135], ["2018-04-13", 0.29], ["2018-04-13", 0.175], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.175], ["2018-04-14", 0.175], ["2018-04-14", 0.2], ["2018-04-14", 0.15], ["2018-04-14", 0.15], ["2018-04-14", 0.175], ["2018-04-14", 0.125], ["2018-04-14", 0.125], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.1], ["2018-04-14", 0.12], ["2018-04-15", 0.15], ["2018-04-15", 0.175], ["2018-04-15", 0.175], ["2018-04-15", 0.15], ["2018-04-15", 0.175], ["2018-04-15", 0.2], 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April 2018 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/01/world/asia/china-tariffs-united-states.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ag/201804/20180402726864.shtml"target="_blank">Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China</a>), and on 4 April they announced plans for further tariffs on a range of imports, including aircraft, that have not yet taken effect (<a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/04/the-full-list-of-us-products-that-china-is-planning-to-hit-with-tariffs.html"target="_blank">CNBC</a>). China has indicated that their implementation is dependent on whether the US follows through on its additional tariffs (<a href = "https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/04/what-china-tariffs-mean-for-america-455806"target="_blank">Politico</a>).
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<hr>
This question resolved as "No" (<a href = "http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1107188.shtml"target="_blank">Global Times</a>, <a href = "https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-44858188"target="_blank">BBC (Chinese)</a>, <a href = "http://gss.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201806/t20180616_2930325.html) with an end date of 1 August 2018"target="_blank">Ministry of Finance of the Peoples Republic of China</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-08-01 | Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?
| gjopen | 0 |
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["2019-12-05", 0.02], ["2019-12-07", 0.02], ["2019-12-08", 0.02], ["2019-12-09", 0.02], ["2019-12-12", 0.02], ["2019-12-13", 0.02], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-19", 0.01], ["2019-12-20", 0.01], ["2019-12-20", 0.01], ["2019-12-21", 0.01], ["2019-12-22", 0.01], ["2019-12-23", 0.01], ["2019-12-25", 0.01], ["2019-12-27", 0.005], ["2019-12-28", 0.0], ["2019-12-28", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/932 | The Russian Constitution limits presidents to two consecutive terms, but there has been speculation that future constitutional changes could allow Putin to remain in power past 2024 (<a href="https://apnews.com/f447c4e387a54298925d307850f68468/Putin%27s-dilemma:-Scrap-term-limits-or-choose-a-successor, https://www.ft.com/content/d87dc102-d464-11e7-a303-9060cb1e5f44" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/europe/russia-vladimir-putin-election.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). Examples of constitutional changes that could count include, but are not limited to, revised term limits or the creation of a new position or government body.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub><p></p><hr><p>This question closed as "No" with an end date of 1 January 2020. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-01-01 | Before 1 January 2020, will any change be made to the Russian Constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in a leadership role after his current term? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2019-07-15", 0.025], ["2019-07-15", 0.025], ["2019-07-17", 0.025], ["2019-07-20", 0.02], ["2019-07-21", 0.02], ["2019-07-26", 0.02], ["2019-08-01", 0.02], ["2019-08-03", 0.02], ["2019-08-05", 0.02], ["2019-08-09", 0.02], ["2019-08-11", 0.02], ["2019-08-15", 0.02], ["2019-08-21", 0.02], ["2019-08-23", 0.02], ["2019-08-23", 0.02], ["2019-08-26", 0.02], ["2019-08-28", 0.02], ["2019-09-01", 0.02], ["2019-09-07", 0.02], ["2019-09-10", 0.02], ["2019-09-11", 0.02], ["2019-09-12", 0.02], ["2019-09-13", 0.02], ["2019-09-14", 0.02], ["2019-09-19", 0.02], ["2019-09-22", 0.02], ["2019-09-26", 0.015], ["2019-09-27", 0.01], ["2019-10-02", 0.01], ["2019-10-04", 0.01], ["2019-10-08", 0.01], ["2019-10-11", 0.01], ["2019-10-11", 0.01], ["2019-10-15", 0.01], ["2019-10-17", 0.01], ["2019-10-21", 0.01], ["2019-10-22", 0.01], ["2019-10-24", 0.01], ["2019-10-27", 0.01], ["2019-10-28", 0.01], ["2019-10-31", 0.01], ["2019-11-02", 0.01], ["2019-11-05", 0.01], ["2019-11-06", 0.01], ["2019-11-11", 0.01], ["2019-11-13", 0.01], ["2019-11-15", 0.01], ["2019-11-18", 0.01], ["2019-11-20", 0.01], ["2019-11-22", 0.01], ["2019-11-27", 0.01], ["2019-11-29", 0.01], ["2019-12-02", 0.01], ["2019-12-04", 0.005], ["2019-12-05", 0.005], ["2019-12-08", 0.0], ["2019-12-09", 0.0], ["2019-12-11", 0.0], ["2019-12-14", 0.0], ["2019-12-15", 0.0], ["2019-12-16", 0.0], ["2019-12-18", 0.0], ["2019-12-18", 0.0], ["2019-12-20", 0.0], ["2019-12-21", 0.0], ["2019-12-23", 0.0], ["2019-12-24", 0.0], ["2019-12-26", 0.0], ["2019-12-27", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/931 | Article 4 has been invoked a few times in the history of NATO (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm, http://www.ibtimes.com/what-natos-article-4-why-turkey-called-consultations-under-rarely-used-provision-2026060" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5/24626653.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>). Article 5 has been invoked just once (<a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm" target="_blank">NATO</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/13/us/after-attacks-alliance-for-first-time-nato-invokes-joint-defense-pact-with-us.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>). If Article 4 or Article 5 is invoked for an event in which the perpetrator is initially unknown and NATO subsequently attributes that event to Russia, the question will close retroactively with the end date of the invocation.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-01-01 | Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2018-04-13 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-13", 0.75], ["2018-04-13", 0.7], ["2018-04-13", 0.37], ["2018-04-14", 0.4], ["2018-04-14", 0.4], ["2018-04-14", 0.55], ["2018-04-14", 0.425], ["2018-04-14", 0.475], ["2018-04-14", 0.55], ["2018-04-14", 0.45], ["2018-04-14", 0.45], ["2018-04-14", 0.495], ["2018-04-14", 0.395], ["2018-04-14", 0.435], ["2018-04-15", 0.385], ["2018-04-15", 0.36], ["2018-04-15", 0.325], ["2018-04-15", 0.425], ["2018-04-15", 0.475], ["2018-04-16", 0.475], ["2018-04-16", 0.475], ["2018-04-16", 0.5], ["2018-04-16", 0.41], ["2018-04-16", 0.43], ["2018-04-17", 0.49], ["2018-04-17", 0.525], ["2018-04-18", 0.55], ["2018-04-18", 0.565], ["2018-04-19", 0.55], ["2018-04-19", 0.525], ["2018-04-19", 0.5], ["2018-04-20", 0.445], ["2018-04-20", 0.44], ["2018-04-21", 0.41], ["2018-04-21", 0.405], ["2018-04-22", 0.405], ["2018-04-23", 0.44], ["2018-04-23", 0.44], ["2018-04-23", 0.44], ["2018-04-23", 0.45], ["2018-04-24", 0.45], ["2018-04-25", 0.45], ["2018-04-26", 0.44], 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["2018-11-30", 0.13], ["2018-11-30", 0.13], ["2018-11-30", 0.12], ["2018-11-30", 0.12], ["2018-11-30", 0.12], ["2018-11-30", 0.12], ["2018-12-01", 0.11], ["2018-12-02", 0.1], ["2018-12-03", 0.1], ["2018-12-03", 0.1], ["2018-12-04", 0.1], ["2018-12-04", 0.1], ["2018-12-05", 0.1], ["2018-12-05", 0.1], ["2018-12-07", 0.1], ["2018-12-07", 0.1], ["2018-12-08", 0.1], ["2018-12-08", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-09", 0.1], ["2018-12-10", 0.1], ["2018-12-11", 0.1], ["2018-12-12", 0.1], ["2018-12-12", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-14", 0.1], ["2018-12-14", 0.1], ["2018-12-15", 0.1], ["2018-12-16", 0.1], ["2018-12-17", 0.1], ["2018-12-18", 0.1], ["2018-12-19", 0.1], ["2018-12-19", 0.1], ["2018-12-20", 0.1], ["2018-12-20", 0.1], ["2018-12-21", 0.1], ["2018-12-22", 0.1], ["2018-12-23", 0.1], ["2018-12-24", 0.1], ["2018-12-25", 0.1], ["2018-12-26", 0.1], ["2018-12-26", 0.1], ["2018-12-27", 0.1], ["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-29", 0.09], ["2018-12-30", 0.09], ["2018-12-30", 0.08], ["2018-12-31", 0.08], ["2018-12-31", 0.07], ["2019-01-01", 0.07]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/933 | Robert Mueller was appointed to serve as Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election and related matters by Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 (<a href = "https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/967231/download"target="_blank">U.S Department of Justice</a>).
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Before 1 January 2019, will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2019-09-16", 0.01], ["2019-09-19", 0.01], ["2019-09-20", 0.01], ["2019-09-21", 0.01], ["2019-09-23", 0.01], ["2019-09-23", 0.01], ["2019-09-24", 0.01], ["2019-09-25", 0.01], ["2019-09-25", 0.01], ["2019-09-26", 0.01], ["2019-09-28", 0.01], ["2019-09-29", 0.01], ["2019-09-30", 0.01], ["2019-10-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/942 | The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011, and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years. There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-trump-policy/despite-tensions-u-s-sees-value-in-new-start-treaty-with-russia-idUSKCN1BY00R" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf" target="_blank">Federation of American Scientists</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-us-glimpses-possible-common-ground-with-russia/2018/03/21/a6baec60-2c7c-11e8-911f-ca7f68bff0fc_story.html" target="_blank"> The Washington Post</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p>
| Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-10-01 | Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on a new nuclear arms control treaty or an extension/modification of an existing nuclear arms control treaty begin before 1 October 2019? | gjopen | 0 |
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["2019-08-03", 0.02], ["2019-08-03", 0.02], ["2019-08-04", 0.02], ["2019-08-05", 0.02], ["2019-08-06", 0.02], ["2019-08-08", 0.02], ["2019-08-11", 0.02], ["2019-08-13", 0.02], ["2019-08-15", 0.02], ["2019-08-21", 0.015], ["2019-08-23", 0.015], ["2019-08-25", 0.02], ["2019-08-28", 0.02], ["2019-08-29", 0.02], ["2019-09-01", 0.02], ["2019-09-02", 0.015], ["2019-09-08", 0.015], ["2019-09-10", 0.01], ["2019-09-11", 0.01], ["2019-09-13", 0.01], ["2019-09-15", 0.01], ["2019-09-16", 0.01], ["2019-09-18", 0.01], ["2019-09-19", 0.01], ["2019-09-22", 0.01], ["2019-09-25", 0.01], ["2019-09-26", 0.01], ["2019-09-27", 0.01], ["2019-09-28", 0.01], ["2019-09-29", 0.01], ["2019-09-30", 0.01], ["2019-10-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/941 | For the specific heavy weaponry withdrawal requirements see <a href="http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2202.pdf" target="_blank">Annex 1, No. 2 of the Minsk II Agreement</a>. The OSCE has established a Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine and one of its tasks is monitoring Minsk II compliance (<a href="https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine" target="_blank">Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-security-osce-ukraine-crisis/osce-calls-for-effort-to-jumpstart-ukraine-peace-process-idUSKCN1G01ZO" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). <sub style="font-size: 10.5px;">Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question%20Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="font-size: 10.5px; line-height: 0; vertical-align: baseline;">See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.</span></p> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2019-10-01 | Before 1 October 2019, will the OSCE verify that separatist forces have withdrawn all of their heavy weaponry in accordance with the Minsk II Peace Agreement? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-09-11 | 2018-04-18 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-18", 1.0], ["2018-04-18", 0.9], ["2018-04-18", 0.95], ["2018-04-18", 0.875], ["2018-04-19", 0.85], ["2018-04-19", 0.95], ["2018-04-19", 0.97], ["2018-04-19", 0.98], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.99], ["2018-04-19", 0.97], ["2018-04-19", 0.965], ["2018-04-19", 0.95], ["2018-04-20", 0.965], ["2018-04-20", 0.98], ["2018-04-20", 0.99], ["2018-04-20", 0.99], ["2018-04-20", 0.995], ["2018-04-20", 0.995], ["2018-04-20", 0.995], ["2018-04-21", 0.99], ["2018-04-21", 0.99], ["2018-04-21", 0.98], ["2018-04-22", 0.965], ["2018-04-22", 0.925], ["2018-04-22", 0.925], ["2018-04-22", 0.895], ["2018-04-23", 0.885], ["2018-04-23", 0.88], ["2018-04-23", 0.85], ["2018-04-23", 0.85], ["2018-04-24", 0.85], ["2018-04-24", 0.825], ["2018-04-25", 0.825], ["2018-04-25", 0.825], ["2018-04-25", 0.835], ["2018-04-25", 0.85], ["2018-04-25", 0.85], ["2018-04-26", 0.85], ["2018-04-26", 0.85], ["2018-04-26", 0.85], 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0.9], ["2018-08-22", 0.9], ["2018-08-22", 0.9], ["2018-08-23", 0.9], ["2018-08-23", 0.9], ["2018-08-23", 0.9], ["2018-08-23", 0.9], ["2018-08-23", 0.9], ["2018-08-24", 0.9], ["2018-08-24", 0.9], ["2018-08-24", 0.9], ["2018-08-26", 0.89], ["2018-08-27", 0.875], ["2018-08-27", 0.875], ["2018-08-27", 0.875], ["2018-08-28", 0.875], ["2018-08-28", 0.875], ["2018-08-29", 0.875], ["2018-08-29", 0.875], ["2018-08-29", 0.87], ["2018-08-30", 0.87], ["2018-08-30", 0.87], ["2018-08-31", 0.85], ["2018-09-01", 0.85], ["2018-09-01", 0.85], ["2018-09-01", 0.85], ["2018-09-01", 0.85], ["2018-09-01", 0.85], ["2018-09-02", 0.85], ["2018-09-02", 0.85], ["2018-09-02", 0.85], ["2018-09-02", 0.85], ["2018-09-02", 0.85], ["2018-09-02", 0.87], ["2018-09-02", 0.88], ["2018-09-02", 0.875], ["2018-09-02", 0.875], ["2018-09-03", 0.86], ["2018-09-03", 0.86], ["2018-09-03", 0.85], ["2018-09-03", 0.87], ["2018-09-03", 0.87], ["2018-09-03", 0.87], ["2018-09-03", 0.87], ["2018-09-03", 0.87], ["2018-09-04", 0.87], ["2018-09-04", 0.87], ["2018-09-04", 0.87], ["2018-09-04", 0.87], ["2018-09-04", 0.875], ["2018-09-05", 0.875], ["2018-09-06", 0.875], ["2018-09-06", 0.875], ["2018-09-06", 0.875], ["2018-09-06", 0.875], ["2018-09-07", 0.875], ["2018-09-07", 0.88], ["2018-09-07", 0.88], ["2018-09-08", 0.88], ["2018-09-09", 0.88], ["2018-09-09", 0.88], ["2018-09-09", 0.88], ["2018-09-10", 0.88], ["2018-09-11", 0.88], ["2018-09-11", 0.88], ["2018-09-11", 0.88], ["2018-09-11", 0.88], ["2018-09-11", 0.88], ["2018-09-11", 0.88]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/936 | Lula's conviction and incarceration based upon corruption charges has cast doubt on his ability to run in Brazil's upcoming presidential election (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21740253-even-behind-bars-former-president-will-remain-force-be-reckoned-lula-goes-jail"target="_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/04/16/lula-da-silva-is-in-jail-and-hes-still-brazils-leading-candidate-for-president-here-are-3-ways-that-could-turn-out/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://en.mercopress.com/2018/04/16/brazilian-electorate-cautious-a-week-after-the-imprisonment-of-lula-da-silva"target="_blank">MercoPress</a>, <a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/edition/2018/article/14417/clean-break-por-favor"target="_blank">The Economist</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-party-replaces-lula-da-silva-on-presidential-ballot/2018/09/11/e8dda6e0-b5ee-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_story.html"target="_blank">"yes"</a> with and end date of 11 September 2018.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" tawrget="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-09-11 | Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva? | gjopen | 1 |
2020-01-03 | 2018-04-18 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-18", 0.325], ["2018-04-18", 0.21], ["2018-04-19", 0.15], ["2018-04-19", 0.15], ["2018-04-19", 0.1], ["2018-04-19", 0.1], ["2018-04-19", 0.075], ["2018-04-20", 0.075], ["2018-04-21", 0.07], ["2018-04-22", 0.095], ["2018-04-22", 0.095], ["2018-04-23", 0.08], ["2018-04-23", 0.06], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.025], ["2018-04-25", 0.035], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-26", 0.05], ["2018-04-28", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-04-29", 0.05], ["2018-04-30", 0.08], ["2018-04-30", 0.075], ["2018-05-01", 0.075], ["2018-05-04", 0.05], ["2018-05-04", 0.05], ["2018-05-06", 0.06], ["2018-05-06", 0.07], ["2018-05-07", 0.09], ["2018-05-08", 0.125], ["2018-05-09", 0.15], ["2018-05-10", 0.2], ["2018-05-11", 0.175], ["2018-05-12", 0.175], ["2018-05-13", 0.25], ["2018-05-14", 0.25], ["2018-05-14", 0.25], ["2018-05-17", 0.25], ["2018-05-20", 0.25], ["2018-05-20", 0.275], ["2018-05-22", 0.3], ["2018-05-24", 0.3], ["2018-05-26", 0.3], ["2018-05-28", 0.25], ["2018-05-31", 0.25], ["2018-06-02", 0.275], ["2018-06-03", 0.275], ["2018-06-03", 0.25], ["2018-06-07", 0.25], ["2018-06-09", 0.3], ["2018-06-09", 0.3], ["2018-06-13", 0.3], ["2018-06-16", 0.3], ["2018-06-16", 0.3], ["2018-06-17", 0.275], ["2018-06-22", 0.275], ["2018-06-24", 0.3], ["2018-06-24", 0.32], ["2018-06-26", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-29", 0.3], ["2018-06-30", 0.3], ["2018-07-02", 0.3], ["2018-07-04", 0.3], ["2018-07-06", 0.3], ["2018-07-06", 0.275], ["2018-07-06", 0.185], ["2018-07-07", 0.185], ["2018-07-07", 0.11], ["2018-07-10", 0.1], ["2018-07-12", 0.1], ["2018-07-13", 0.1], ["2018-07-16", 0.1], ["2018-07-18", 0.1], ["2018-07-19", 0.1], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-23", 0.11], ["2018-07-24", 0.11], ["2018-07-26", 0.1], ["2018-07-30", 0.12], ["2018-07-30", 0.135], ["2018-08-01", 0.135], ["2018-08-04", 0.12], 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["2019-08-20", 0.04], ["2019-08-21", 0.035], ["2019-08-22", 0.03], ["2019-08-23", 0.03], ["2019-08-25", 0.03], ["2019-08-31", 0.025], ["2019-09-01", 0.02], ["2019-09-05", 0.02], ["2019-09-10", 0.02], ["2019-09-11", 0.02], ["2019-09-13", 0.02], ["2019-09-17", 0.02], ["2019-09-22", 0.02], ["2019-09-26", 0.02], ["2019-09-30", 0.02], ["2019-10-02", 0.02], ["2019-10-06", 0.02], ["2019-10-07", 0.02], ["2019-10-09", 0.02], ["2019-10-10", 0.02], ["2019-10-14", 0.02], ["2019-10-20", 0.02], ["2019-10-22", 0.02], ["2019-10-23", 0.015], ["2019-10-26", 0.015], ["2019-10-27", 0.01], ["2019-10-30", 0.01], ["2019-11-02", 0.01], ["2019-11-06", 0.01], ["2019-11-11", 0.01], ["2019-11-15", 0.01], ["2019-11-16", 0.01], ["2019-11-17", 0.01], ["2019-11-20", 0.01], ["2019-11-23", 0.01], ["2019-11-26", 0.01], ["2019-11-28", 0.01], ["2019-12-01", 0.01], ["2019-12-03", 0.01], ["2019-12-04", 0.01], ["2019-12-07", 0.01], ["2019-12-08", 0.01], ["2019-12-10", 0.01], ["2019-12-11", 0.01], ["2019-12-12", 0.01], ["2019-12-14", 0.01], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-16", 0.01], ["2019-12-20", 0.01], ["2019-12-21", 0.01], ["2019-12-22", 0.005], ["2019-12-23", 0.005], ["2019-12-24", 0.005], ["2019-12-25", 0.0], ["2019-12-26", 0.0], ["2019-12-27", 0.0], ["2019-12-27", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-29", 0.0], ["2019-12-30", 0.0], ["2019-12-31", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0], ["2020-01-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/937 | The EU is pushing Serbia to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo by the end of 2019 (<a href="https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/349/dialogue-between-belgrade-and-pristina_en" target="_blank">European Union External Action</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kosovo-government-serbs/kosovo-serbs-quit-ruling-coalition-over-detention-of-serbia-official-idUSKBN1H326T" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/no-progress-reported-talks-vucic-thaci-normalize-relations-kosovo-serbia-brussels/29120862.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe</a>). The lack of progress on a normalization agreement remains a critical obstacle to EU accession (<a href="http://prishtinainsight.com/kosovo-serbia-normalization-agreement-key-benchmark-eu-accession/" target="_blank">Prishtina Insight</a>), which Serbia continues to seek despite it's ally Russia's reservations about the expansion process (<a href="http://www.dw.com/en/serbia-balances-between-russia-and-the-west/a-41854351" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>).
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>. </p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">See our FAQ to learn about </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how we resolve questions</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;"> and </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 10.5px;">how scores are calculated</a><span style="font-size: 10.5px;">.</span></p>
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2020-01-01 | Will Serbia and Kosovo reach a comprehensive normalization agreement before 1 January 2020?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-06 | 2018-05-09 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-09", 0.0], ["2018-05-09", 0.0], ["2018-05-09", 0.0], ["2018-05-09", 0.075], ["2018-05-09", 0.075], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-11", 0.0], ["2018-05-11", 0.005], ["2018-05-11", 0.005], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.01], ["2018-05-11", 0.005], ["2018-05-11", 0.0], ["2018-05-12", 0.0], ["2018-05-12", 0.0], ["2018-05-13", 0.0], ["2018-05-13", 0.0], ["2018-05-13", 0.0], ["2018-05-14", 0.0], ["2018-05-14", 0.0], ["2018-05-14", 0.0], ["2018-05-14", 0.0], ["2018-05-14", 0.0], ["2018-05-14", 0.0], ["2018-05-15", 0.025], ["2018-05-15", 0.05], ["2018-05-15", 0.05], ["2018-05-16", 0.05], ["2018-05-16", 0.04], ["2018-05-16", 0.02], ["2018-05-16", 0.02], ["2018-05-17", 0.02], ["2018-05-19", 0.02], ["2018-05-20", 0.015], ["2018-05-20", 0.015], ["2018-05-20", 0.01], ["2018-05-20", 0.01], ["2018-05-21", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.01], ["2018-05-22", 0.02], ["2018-05-22", 0.02], ["2018-05-22", 0.025], ["2018-05-23", 0.03], ["2018-05-24", 0.03], ["2018-05-24", 0.03], ["2018-05-25", 0.03], ["2018-05-25", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-26", 0.03], ["2018-05-27", 0.03], ["2018-05-27", 0.025], ["2018-05-29", 0.025], ["2018-05-30", 0.02], ["2018-05-31", 0.02], ["2018-06-01", 0.02], ["2018-06-03", 0.02], ["2018-06-03", 0.025], ["2018-06-03", 0.025], ["2018-06-04", 0.025], ["2018-06-05", 0.02], ["2018-06-05", 0.03], ["2018-06-07", 0.02], ["2018-06-07", 0.025], ["2018-06-08", 0.02], ["2018-06-10", 0.02], ["2018-06-11", 0.02], ["2018-06-14", 0.02], ["2018-06-14", 0.02], ["2018-06-15", 0.02], ["2018-06-15", 0.02], ["2018-06-15", 0.02], ["2018-06-16", 0.02], ["2018-06-16", 0.02], ["2018-06-16", 0.02], ["2018-06-17", 0.02], ["2018-06-18", 0.01], ["2018-06-20", 0.015], ["2018-06-20", 0.015], ["2018-06-22", 0.015], ["2018-06-22", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-23", 0.01], ["2018-06-24", 0.005], ["2018-06-26", 0.005], ["2018-06-26", 0.005], ["2018-06-26", 0.005], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.005], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.01], ["2018-07-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/944 | For more information on the accession process see: <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining_en"target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/check-current-status/index_en.htm"target="_blank">European Commission</a>.
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<hr>
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-01 | Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?
| gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-02 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-16", 0.1], ["2018-05-16", 0.15], ["2018-05-16", 0.08], ["2018-05-16", 0.03], ["2018-05-16", 0.025], ["2018-05-16", 0.05], ["2018-05-16", 0.0], ["2018-05-17", 0.025], ["2018-05-17", 0.025], ["2018-05-17", 0.005], ["2018-05-17", 0.0], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.005], ["2018-05-18", 0.015], ["2018-05-18", 0.015], ["2018-05-19", 0.01], ["2018-05-19", 0.0], ["2018-05-19", 0.0], ["2018-05-20", 0.0], ["2018-05-21", 0.0], ["2018-05-21", 0.0], ["2018-05-21", 0.0], ["2018-05-21", 0.0], ["2018-05-21", 0.0], ["2018-05-21", 0.0], ["2018-05-21", 0.0], ["2018-05-22", 0.0], ["2018-05-22", 0.0], ["2018-05-22", 0.0], ["2018-05-23", 0.0], ["2018-05-23", 0.0], ["2018-05-23", 0.0], ["2018-05-24", 0.0], ["2018-05-24", 0.0], ["2018-05-24", 0.0], ["2018-05-25", 0.0], ["2018-05-25", 0.0], ["2018-05-26", 0.0], ["2018-05-26", 0.0], ["2018-05-26", 0.0], ["2018-05-26", 0.0], ["2018-05-27", 0.0], ["2018-05-27", 0.0], ["2018-05-28", 0.0], ["2018-05-29", 0.0], ["2018-05-29", 0.0], ["2018-05-29", 0.0], ["2018-05-31", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-01", 0.0], ["2018-06-02", 0.0], ["2018-06-03", 0.0], ["2018-06-03", 0.0], ["2018-06-04", 0.0], ["2018-06-05", 0.0], ["2018-06-06", 0.0], ["2018-06-07", 0.0], ["2018-06-07", 0.0], ["2018-06-08", 0.0], ["2018-06-09", 0.0], ["2018-06-09", 0.0], ["2018-06-11", 0.0], ["2018-06-11", 0.0], ["2018-06-11", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-14", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-15", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-16", 0.0], ["2018-06-17", 0.0], ["2018-06-19", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-20", 0.0], ["2018-06-21", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-22", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-23", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-24", 0.0], ["2018-06-25", 0.0], ["2018-06-26", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-30", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/952 | On 21 March 2018, the European Commission proposed new rules on the taxation of digital business activities of large tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Amazon (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/21/facebook-google-and-amazon-to-pay-fair-tax-under-eu-plans" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/company-tax/fair-taxation-digital-economy_en" target="_blank">European Commission</a>). For more information on EU directives and the Council of the European Union's role in the legislative process see: <a href="https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/institutions-bodies/council-eu_en" target="_blank">The Council of the European Union Overview</a>, <a href="https://europa.eu/european-union/eu-law/legal-acts_en" target="_blank">official documentation on regulations and directives</a>, and <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/external/html/legislativeprocedure/default_en.htm" target="_blank">documentation on legislative procedure</a>. The adoption of a directive on taxation of digital business activities via the enhanced cooperation procedure would count (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/enhanced_cooperation.html).
<hr>
The Council of the European Union did not adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018.
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-30 | Before 1 July 2018, will the Council of the European Union adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities? | gjopen | 0 |
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<hr>
S&P, Moody's, nor Fitch change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 June 2018.
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| Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-06-28 | Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating before 29 June 2018? | gjopen | 0 |
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Moon visiting Pyongyang is part of the Panmunjom Declaration signed by North and South Korea (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/04/27/the-panmmunjom-declaration-full-text-of-agreement-between-north-korea-and-south-korea/"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2018/05/17/0401000000AEN20180517009200315.html"target="_blank">Yonhap News</a>, <a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/south-korea-may-try-for-a-three-way-summit-in-singapore-with-us-and-north-korea/2018/05/31/2b1b5d2e-64cb-11e8-b166-fea8410bcded_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>)
<hr>
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This question closed as 'Yes' with an end date of 18 September 2018 (<a href = "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-summit/leaders-of-two-koreas-meet-in-pyongyang-for-talks-on-ending-war-idUSKCN1LX1SC?il=0"target="_blank">Reuters</a>).
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| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-09-18 | Before 1 January 2019, will South Korean President Moon Jae-in visit Pyongyang?
| gjopen | 1 |
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<hr>
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<hr> | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-25 | Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election? | gjopen | 0 |
2018-07-06 | 2018-06-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-20", 0.9], ["2018-06-20", 0.9], ["2018-06-20", 0.95], ["2018-06-20", 0.575], ["2018-06-20", 0.3], ["2018-06-20", 0.25], ["2018-06-20", 0.45], ["2018-06-20", 0.475], ["2018-06-20", 0.575], ["2018-06-21", 0.575], ["2018-06-21", 0.65], ["2018-06-21", 0.65], ["2018-06-21", 0.7], ["2018-06-21", 0.645], ["2018-06-21", 0.645], ["2018-06-21", 0.75], ["2018-06-21", 0.75], ["2018-06-21", 0.705], ["2018-06-21", 0.6], ["2018-06-21", 0.605], ["2018-06-21", 0.605], ["2018-06-22", 0.605], ["2018-06-22", 0.55], ["2018-06-22", 0.55], ["2018-06-22", 0.55], ["2018-06-22", 0.55], ["2018-06-23", 0.5], ["2018-06-23", 0.5], ["2018-06-23", 0.45], ["2018-06-23", 0.45], ["2018-06-23", 0.45], ["2018-06-24", 0.5], ["2018-06-24", 0.55], ["2018-06-24", 0.605], ["2018-06-24", 0.65], ["2018-06-24", 0.65], ["2018-06-24", 0.65], ["2018-06-24", 0.625], ["2018-06-25", 0.68], ["2018-06-25", 0.725], ["2018-06-25", 0.68], ["2018-06-26", 0.68], ["2018-06-26", 0.715], ["2018-06-27", 0.72], ["2018-06-27", 0.75], ["2018-06-27", 0.735], ["2018-06-27", 0.735], ["2018-06-27", 0.735], ["2018-06-27", 0.72], ["2018-06-27", 0.72], ["2018-06-27", 0.715], ["2018-06-27", 0.685], ["2018-06-28", 0.685], ["2018-06-28", 0.685], ["2018-06-28", 0.71], ["2018-06-28", 0.7], ["2018-06-28", 0.7], ["2018-06-30", 0.7], ["2018-06-30", 0.71], ["2018-07-01", 0.71], ["2018-07-01", 0.675], ["2018-07-02", 0.675], ["2018-07-02", 0.65], ["2018-07-02", 0.65], ["2018-07-02", 0.65], ["2018-07-03", 0.65], ["2018-07-03", 0.65], ["2018-07-03", 0.65], ["2018-07-03", 0.675], ["2018-07-03", 0.625], ["2018-07-04", 0.675], ["2018-07-04", 0.7], ["2018-07-04", 0.7], ["2018-07-04", 0.7], ["2018-07-04", 0.7], ["2018-07-04", 0.7], ["2018-07-04", 0.7], ["2018-07-05", 0.7], ["2018-07-05", 0.7], ["2018-07-05", 0.71], ["2018-07-05", 0.735], ["2018-07-05", 0.75], ["2018-07-05", 0.75], ["2018-07-05", 0.8], ["2018-07-05", 0.8], ["2018-07-05", 0.8], ["2018-07-05", 0.85], ["2018-07-05", 0.9], ["2018-07-05", 0.9], ["2018-07-05", 0.97], ["2018-07-05", 0.995], ["2018-07-05", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0], ["2018-07-06", 1.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/967 | Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt faces multiple federal inquiries into his management practices at the agency (<a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/here-s-a-scorecard-of-the-scott-pruitt-investigations-quicktake"target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, <a href = "https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/08/politics/trump-scott-pruitt/index.html"target="_blank">CNN</a>).
<hr>
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr>
This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 6 July 2018 (<a href = "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/05/scott-pruitts-full-resignation-letter-to-president-trump.html"target="_blank">Fox News</a>; <a href = "https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/05/pruitt-resigns-as-epa-chief-695291"target="_blank">Politico</a>.)
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
| Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-07-06 | Before 1 January 2019, will Scott Pruitt cease to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency? | gjopen | 1 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.025], ["2018-06-28", 0.025], ["2018-06-28", 0.025], ["2018-06-29", 0.035], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.03], ["2018-06-29", 0.04], ["2018-06-30", 0.065], ["2018-07-01", 0.025], ["2018-07-01", 0.03], ["2018-07-02", 0.03], ["2018-07-02", 0.03], ["2018-07-02", 0.025], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.025], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-06", 0.035], ["2018-07-06", 0.035], ["2018-07-07", 0.01], ["2018-07-09", 0.01], ["2018-07-12", 0.01], ["2018-07-13", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-18", 0.02], ["2018-07-19", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.02], ["2018-07-24", 0.02], ["2018-07-25", 0.015], ["2018-07-27", 0.02], ["2018-07-29", 0.02], ["2018-07-29", 0.02], ["2018-07-30", 0.02], ["2018-07-30", 0.02], ["2018-08-04", 0.02], ["2018-08-05", 0.02], ["2018-08-08", 0.015], ["2018-08-09", 0.015], ["2018-08-10", 0.02], ["2018-08-12", 0.02], ["2018-08-12", 0.02], ["2018-08-13", 0.02], ["2018-08-14", 0.01], ["2018-08-16", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-21", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-23", 0.015], ["2018-08-27", 0.015], ["2018-08-29", 0.015], ["2018-09-02", 0.015], ["2018-09-03", 0.01], ["2018-09-05", 0.01], ["2018-09-06", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-12", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.0], ["2018-09-18", 0.0], ["2018-09-20", 0.005], ["2018-09-20", 0.005], ["2018-09-22", 0.005], ["2018-09-22", 0.005], ["2018-09-24", 0.005], ["2018-09-26", 0.01], ["2018-09-26", 0.0], ["2018-09-28", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/976 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.97], ["2018-06-27", 0.85], ["2018-06-27", 0.745], ["2018-06-27", 0.32], ["2018-06-27", 0.16], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.18], ["2018-06-29", 0.18], ["2018-06-30", 0.19], ["2018-07-01", 0.115], ["2018-07-02", 0.105], ["2018-07-02", 0.105], ["2018-07-03", 0.16], ["2018-07-03", 0.16], ["2018-07-03", 0.12], ["2018-07-03", 0.065], ["2018-07-06", 0.065], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-09", 0.08], ["2018-07-12", 0.08], ["2018-07-13", 0.08], ["2018-07-15", 0.08], ["2018-07-15", 0.1], ["2018-07-16", 0.1], ["2018-07-16", 0.1], ["2018-07-17", 0.1], ["2018-07-18", 0.11], ["2018-07-19", 0.12], ["2018-07-23", 0.12], ["2018-07-23", 0.12], ["2018-07-24", 0.12], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-26", 0.12], ["2018-07-27", 0.14], ["2018-07-29", 0.15], ["2018-07-29", 0.15], ["2018-07-30", 0.22], ["2018-07-30", 0.25], ["2018-08-02", 0.25], ["2018-08-02", 0.275], ["2018-08-05", 0.275], ["2018-08-06", 0.295], ["2018-08-06", 0.295], ["2018-08-09", 0.295], ["2018-08-09", 0.295], ["2018-08-10", 0.29], ["2018-08-12", 0.29], ["2018-08-12", 0.29], ["2018-08-13", 0.3], ["2018-08-14", 0.3], ["2018-08-16", 0.3], ["2018-08-18", 0.3], ["2018-08-18", 0.3], ["2018-08-21", 0.3], ["2018-08-22", 0.3], ["2018-08-22", 0.3], ["2018-08-23", 0.3], ["2018-08-23", 0.3], ["2018-08-27", 0.3], ["2018-08-28", 0.3], ["2018-08-29", 0.3], ["2018-08-30", 0.3], ["2018-08-30", 0.3], ["2018-09-02", 0.3], ["2018-09-03", 0.3], ["2018-09-03", 0.3], ["2018-09-06", 0.3], ["2018-09-11", 0.3], ["2018-09-12", 0.3], ["2018-09-13", 0.3], ["2018-09-13", 0.275], ["2018-09-13", 0.275], ["2018-09-18", 0.275], ["2018-09-18", 0.275], ["2018-09-18", 0.235], ["2018-09-19", 0.235], ["2018-09-20", 0.24], ["2018-09-20", 0.19], ["2018-09-22", 0.185], ["2018-09-22", 0.15], ["2018-09-24", 0.15], ["2018-09-24", 0.15], ["2018-09-26", 0.15], ["2018-09-26", 0.15], ["2018-09-26", 0.15], ["2018-09-28", 0.15], ["2018-09-28", 0.15], ["2018-09-29", 0.125], ["2018-10-01", 0.09], ["2018-10-01", 0.09]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/975 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.5], ["2018-06-27", 0.85], ["2018-06-27", 0.63], ["2018-06-27", 0.28], ["2018-06-27", 0.115], ["2018-06-28", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-29", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-30", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.015], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.015], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.02], ["2018-07-06", 0.02], ["2018-07-09", 0.02], ["2018-07-12", 0.03], ["2018-07-15", 0.03], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.04], ["2018-07-17", 0.18], ["2018-07-17", 0.18], ["2018-07-18", 0.2], ["2018-07-19", 0.205], ["2018-07-21", 0.08], ["2018-07-23", 0.08], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-27", 0.09], ["2018-07-29", 0.09], ["2018-07-30", 0.09], ["2018-07-30", 0.085], ["2018-08-01", 0.08], ["2018-08-02", 0.08], ["2018-08-02", 0.09], ["2018-08-05", 0.09], ["2018-08-09", 0.08], ["2018-08-09", 0.08], ["2018-08-12", 0.08], ["2018-08-13", 0.08], ["2018-08-14", 0.065], ["2018-08-16", 0.065], ["2018-08-18", 0.065], ["2018-08-18", 0.065], ["2018-08-21", 0.065], ["2018-08-22", 0.06], ["2018-08-22", 0.06], ["2018-08-23", 0.07], ["2018-08-23", 0.05], ["2018-08-27", 0.05], ["2018-08-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-02", 0.05], ["2018-09-03", 0.05], ["2018-09-03", 0.04], ["2018-09-06", 0.04], ["2018-09-11", 0.04], ["2018-09-13", 0.035], ["2018-09-13", 0.025], ["2018-09-18", 0.025], ["2018-09-20", 0.025], ["2018-09-20", 0.035], ["2018-09-22", 0.035], ["2018-09-22", 0.04], ["2018-09-24", 0.04], ["2018-09-26", 0.04], ["2018-09-26", 0.04], ["2018-09-28", 0.04], ["2018-09-29", 0.035], ["2018-10-01", 0.035]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/979 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g. military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g. in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.04], ["2018-06-27", 0.8], ["2018-06-27", 0.875], ["2018-06-27", 0.535], ["2018-06-27", 0.555], ["2018-06-27", 0.99], ["2018-06-28", 0.99], ["2018-06-28", 0.5], ["2018-06-28", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.08], ["2018-06-29", 0.09], ["2018-06-29", 0.175], ["2018-06-29", 0.175], ["2018-07-01", 0.15], ["2018-07-02", 0.15], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.07], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-09", 0.055], ["2018-07-09", 0.055], ["2018-07-12", 0.055], ["2018-07-12", 0.1], ["2018-07-15", 0.1], ["2018-07-15", 0.055], ["2018-07-16", 0.055], ["2018-07-16", 0.095], ["2018-07-17", 0.06], ["2018-07-17", 0.06], ["2018-07-18", 0.06], ["2018-07-20", 0.06], ["2018-07-22", 0.06], ["2018-07-23", 0.06], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-23", 0.15], ["2018-07-24", 0.15], ["2018-07-24", 0.14], ["2018-07-27", 0.15], ["2018-07-29", 0.15], ["2018-07-30", 0.15], ["2018-07-30", 0.15], ["2018-07-30", 0.15], ["2018-08-01", 0.15], ["2018-08-01", 0.14], ["2018-08-02", 0.14], ["2018-08-02", 0.155], ["2018-08-03", 0.15], ["2018-08-05", 0.15], ["2018-08-05", 0.15], ["2018-08-06", 0.15], ["2018-08-06", 0.15], ["2018-08-09", 0.15], ["2018-08-09", 0.14], ["2018-08-11", 0.14], ["2018-08-12", 0.14], ["2018-08-12", 0.105], ["2018-08-12", 0.105], ["2018-08-13", 0.105], ["2018-08-13", 0.105], ["2018-08-14", 0.08], ["2018-08-14", 0.08], ["2018-08-17", 0.08], ["2018-08-17", 0.08], ["2018-08-18", 0.08], ["2018-08-18", 0.08], ["2018-08-22", 0.08], ["2018-08-22", 0.08], ["2018-08-23", 0.1], ["2018-08-25", 0.1], ["2018-08-27", 0.1], ["2018-08-28", 0.1], ["2018-08-29", 0.1], ["2018-08-30", 0.1], ["2018-09-01", 0.1], ["2018-09-01", 0.1], ["2018-09-03", 0.1], ["2018-09-03", 0.1], ["2018-09-05", 0.1], ["2018-09-06", 0.1], ["2018-09-06", 0.1], ["2018-09-06", 0.08], ["2018-09-07", 0.08], ["2018-09-08", 0.08], ["2018-09-09", 0.08], ["2018-09-09", 0.055], ["2018-09-10", 0.055], ["2018-09-11", 0.055], ["2018-09-11", 0.055], ["2018-09-12", 0.055], ["2018-09-13", 0.055], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-16", 0.04], ["2018-09-18", 0.04], ["2018-09-18", 0.02], ["2018-09-19", 0.02], ["2018-09-20", 0.02], ["2018-09-20", 0.035], ["2018-09-21", 0.035], ["2018-09-22", 0.035], ["2018-09-22", 0.035], ["2018-09-23", 0.035], ["2018-09-24", 0.035], ["2018-09-26", 0.05], ["2018-09-28", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/970 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">The EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.35], ["2018-06-27", 0.68], ["2018-06-27", 0.495], ["2018-06-27", 0.505], ["2018-06-27", 0.675], ["2018-06-27", 0.65], ["2018-06-27", 0.65], ["2018-06-27", 0.665], ["2018-06-27", 0.655], ["2018-06-27", 0.44], ["2018-06-27", 0.68], ["2018-06-28", 0.2], ["2018-06-28", 0.2], ["2018-06-28", 0.2], ["2018-06-28", 0.22], ["2018-06-28", 0.155], ["2018-06-29", 0.19], ["2018-06-29", 0.145], ["2018-06-29", 0.145], ["2018-06-30", 0.15], ["2018-07-01", 0.15], ["2018-07-02", 0.15], ["2018-07-02", 0.145], ["2018-07-03", 0.12], ["2018-07-03", 0.085], ["2018-07-03", 0.07], ["2018-07-03", 0.07], ["2018-07-03", 0.065], ["2018-07-04", 0.065], ["2018-07-06", 0.065], ["2018-07-06", 0.065], ["2018-07-09", 0.065], ["2018-07-12", 0.065], ["2018-07-13", 0.065], ["2018-07-14", 0.065], ["2018-07-15", 0.065], ["2018-07-15", 0.075], ["2018-07-16", 0.08], ["2018-07-18", 0.08], ["2018-07-19", 0.08], ["2018-07-19", 0.07], ["2018-07-23", 0.07], ["2018-07-23", 0.07], ["2018-07-24", 0.07], ["2018-07-24", 0.07], ["2018-07-26", 0.05], ["2018-07-29", 0.045], ["2018-07-30", 0.04], ["2018-07-30", 0.04], ["2018-08-03", 0.04], ["2018-08-05", 0.04], ["2018-08-06", 0.04], ["2018-08-09", 0.04], ["2018-08-10", 0.04], ["2018-08-12", 0.04], ["2018-08-13", 0.04], ["2018-08-13", 0.04], ["2018-08-15", 0.05], ["2018-08-16", 0.05], ["2018-08-17", 0.05], ["2018-08-18", 0.06], ["2018-08-18", 0.06], ["2018-08-22", 0.06], ["2018-08-23", 0.07], ["2018-08-27", 0.075], ["2018-09-03", 0.075], ["2018-09-06", 0.075], ["2018-09-11", 0.085], ["2018-09-13", 0.085], ["2018-09-13", 0.065], ["2018-09-18", 0.065], ["2018-09-20", 0.065], ["2018-09-22", 0.08], ["2018-09-23", 0.08], ["2018-09-24", 0.08], ["2018-09-25", 0.05], ["2018-09-28", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-30", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/983 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.09], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.035], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.04], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.025], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-07-01", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.005], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-09", 0.01], ["2018-07-12", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-17", 0.02], ["2018-07-18", 0.02], ["2018-07-19", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.01], ["2018-07-24", 0.01], ["2018-07-25", 0.01], ["2018-07-27", 0.01], ["2018-07-29", 0.01], ["2018-07-30", 0.01], ["2018-08-05", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-10", 0.015], ["2018-08-12", 0.01], ["2018-08-13", 0.01], ["2018-08-14", 0.01], ["2018-08-16", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-23", 0.01], ["2018-08-27", 0.01], ["2018-09-03", 0.01], ["2018-09-05", 0.01], ["2018-09-06", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.005], ["2018-09-15", 0.005], ["2018-09-18", 0.005], ["2018-09-20", 0.01], ["2018-09-22", 0.01], ["2018-09-24", 0.01], ["2018-09-28", 0.01], ["2018-09-29", 0.01], ["2018-09-30", 0.01], ["2018-10-01", 0.01]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/977 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.375], ["2018-06-27", 0.44], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.19], ["2018-06-28", 0.24], ["2018-06-28", 0.19], ["2018-06-28", 0.19], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.14], ["2018-06-29", 0.1], ["2018-06-29", 0.09], ["2018-06-29", 0.09], ["2018-07-01", 0.075], ["2018-07-01", 0.035], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.02], ["2018-07-03", 0.025], ["2018-07-03", 0.03], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-09", 0.05], ["2018-07-10", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.05], ["2018-07-13", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.04], ["2018-07-17", 0.035], ["2018-07-18", 0.035], ["2018-07-19", 0.035], ["2018-07-20", 0.03], ["2018-07-22", 0.025], ["2018-07-23", 0.025], ["2018-07-24", 0.03], ["2018-07-26", 0.02], ["2018-07-27", 0.025], ["2018-07-27", 0.02], ["2018-07-29", 0.025], ["2018-07-30", 0.025], ["2018-07-30", 0.025], ["2018-07-31", 0.03], ["2018-07-31", 0.05], ["2018-08-02", 0.05], ["2018-08-02", 0.04], ["2018-08-03", 0.03], ["2018-08-03", 0.04], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-07", 0.05], ["2018-08-09", 0.04], ["2018-08-09", 0.045], ["2018-08-10", 0.035], ["2018-08-12", 0.03], ["2018-08-13", 0.03], ["2018-08-14", 0.03], ["2018-08-16", 0.035], ["2018-08-16", 0.025], ["2018-08-18", 0.025], ["2018-08-19", 0.035], ["2018-08-21", 0.04], ["2018-08-22", 0.04], ["2018-08-22", 0.035], ["2018-08-23", 0.04], ["2018-08-27", 0.04], ["2018-08-28", 0.04], ["2018-08-29", 0.04], ["2018-08-31", 0.04], ["2018-09-02", 0.05], ["2018-09-03", 0.05], ["2018-09-06", 0.05], ["2018-09-06", 0.05], ["2018-09-10", 0.05], ["2018-09-10", 0.05], ["2018-09-11", 0.05], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-16", 0.055], ["2018-09-17", 0.05], ["2018-09-18", 0.05], ["2018-09-20", 0.05], ["2018-09-20", 0.05], ["2018-09-21", 0.05], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-25", 0.05], ["2018-09-26", 0.05], ["2018-09-28", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/971 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines? | gjopen | 1 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.475], ["2018-06-27", 0.51], ["2018-06-27", 0.27], ["2018-06-27", 0.27], ["2018-06-27", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.21], ["2018-06-28", 0.205], ["2018-06-28", 0.205], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-01", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.08], ["2018-07-03", 0.04], ["2018-07-03", 0.04], ["2018-07-03", 0.06], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.055], ["2018-07-06", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.1], ["2018-07-07", 0.165], ["2018-07-09", 0.165], ["2018-07-12", 0.165], ["2018-07-12", 0.165], ["2018-07-12", 0.18], ["2018-07-13", 0.18], ["2018-07-15", 0.18], ["2018-07-15", 0.18], ["2018-07-16", 0.18], ["2018-07-16", 0.165], ["2018-07-18", 0.165], ["2018-07-19", 0.165], ["2018-07-20", 0.165], ["2018-07-22", 0.165], ["2018-07-23", 0.165], ["2018-07-23", 0.165], ["2018-07-24", 0.175], ["2018-07-24", 0.175], ["2018-07-29", 0.175], ["2018-07-30", 0.225], ["2018-07-30", 0.225], ["2018-08-02", 0.225], ["2018-08-02", 0.225], ["2018-08-03", 0.225], ["2018-08-04", 0.275], ["2018-08-05", 0.3], ["2018-08-05", 0.3], ["2018-08-06", 0.3], ["2018-08-06", 0.3], ["2018-08-06", 0.25], ["2018-08-07", 0.25], ["2018-08-08", 0.17], ["2018-08-09", 0.17], ["2018-08-09", 0.18], ["2018-08-09", 0.175], ["2018-08-10", 0.16], ["2018-08-11", 0.16], ["2018-08-12", 0.16], ["2018-08-12", 0.16], ["2018-08-13", 0.16], ["2018-08-13", 0.16], ["2018-08-14", 0.15], ["2018-08-14", 0.15], ["2018-08-15", 0.16], ["2018-08-16", 0.155], ["2018-08-18", 0.15], ["2018-08-18", 0.15], ["2018-08-18", 0.15], ["2018-08-22", 0.15], ["2018-08-23", 0.15], ["2018-08-23", 0.15], ["2018-08-23", 0.15], ["2018-08-25", 0.15], ["2018-08-27", 0.15], ["2018-08-28", 0.15], ["2018-08-28", 0.15], ["2018-09-01", 0.15], ["2018-09-01", 0.15], ["2018-09-01", 0.15], ["2018-09-02", 0.15], ["2018-09-02", 0.15], ["2018-09-02", 0.17], ["2018-09-03", 0.16], ["2018-09-03", 0.15], ["2018-09-06", 0.15], ["2018-09-07", 0.15], ["2018-09-08", 0.15], ["2018-09-09", 0.15], ["2018-09-09", 0.155], ["2018-09-10", 0.15], ["2018-09-11", 0.15], ["2018-09-11", 0.145], ["2018-09-12", 0.15], ["2018-09-12", 0.15], ["2018-09-12", 0.15], ["2018-09-13", 0.15], ["2018-09-13", 0.15], ["2018-09-15", 0.15], ["2018-09-16", 0.15], ["2018-09-17", 0.15], ["2018-09-18", 0.15], ["2018-09-19", 0.145], ["2018-09-20", 0.15], ["2018-09-20", 0.15], ["2018-09-21", 0.15], ["2018-09-22", 0.15], ["2018-09-24", 0.15], ["2018-09-28", 0.15], ["2018-09-29", 0.15], ["2018-09-29", 0.125], ["2018-10-01", 0.125]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/969 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.05], ["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.665], ["2018-06-27", 0.3], ["2018-06-27", 0.48], ["2018-06-27", 0.66], ["2018-06-27", 0.43], ["2018-06-27", 0.43], ["2018-06-27", 0.43], ["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.4], ["2018-06-27", 0.36], ["2018-06-27", 0.5], ["2018-06-27", 0.625], ["2018-06-27", 0.6], ["2018-06-27", 0.5], ["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.41], ["2018-06-27", 0.325], ["2018-06-27", 0.32], ["2018-06-27", 0.33], ["2018-06-27", 0.315], ["2018-06-28", 0.26], ["2018-06-28", 0.26], ["2018-06-28", 0.22], ["2018-06-28", 0.22], ["2018-06-28", 0.22], ["2018-06-28", 0.25], ["2018-06-29", 0.22], ["2018-06-29", 0.215], ["2018-06-29", 0.215], ["2018-07-01", 0.16], ["2018-07-01", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.08], ["2018-07-03", 0.06], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-06", 0.08], ["2018-07-07", 0.08], ["2018-07-09", 0.08], ["2018-07-12", 0.08], ["2018-07-12", 0.08], ["2018-07-14", 0.06], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.075], ["2018-07-17", 0.075], ["2018-07-18", 0.075], ["2018-07-19", 0.075], ["2018-07-19", 0.075], ["2018-07-20", 0.075], ["2018-07-22", 0.075], ["2018-07-23", 0.075], ["2018-07-23", 0.075], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-29", 0.1], ["2018-07-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-31", 0.1], ["2018-08-01", 0.1], ["2018-08-02", 0.1], ["2018-08-03", 0.1], ["2018-08-04", 0.1], ["2018-08-05", 0.1], ["2018-08-05", 0.1], ["2018-08-06", 0.1], ["2018-08-06", 0.1], ["2018-08-07", 0.1], ["2018-08-08", 0.1], ["2018-08-09", 0.105], ["2018-08-09", 0.105], ["2018-08-10", 0.1], ["2018-08-10", 0.1], ["2018-08-11", 0.1], ["2018-08-12", 0.05], ["2018-08-12", 0.05], ["2018-08-13", 0.05], ["2018-08-13", 0.05], ["2018-08-13", 0.05], ["2018-08-14", 0.05], ["2018-08-14", 0.05], ["2018-08-15", 0.07], ["2018-08-16", 0.05], ["2018-08-17", 0.05], ["2018-08-17", 0.05], ["2018-08-17", 0.05], ["2018-08-18", 0.05], ["2018-08-18", 0.05], ["2018-08-19", 0.05], ["2018-08-19", 0.05], ["2018-08-19", 0.05], ["2018-08-21", 0.05], ["2018-08-22", 0.05], ["2018-08-23", 0.05], ["2018-08-23", 0.055], ["2018-08-25", 0.06], ["2018-08-26", 0.065], ["2018-08-27", 0.065], ["2018-08-28", 0.065], ["2018-08-28", 0.065], ["2018-08-28", 0.07], ["2018-08-29", 0.075], ["2018-08-30", 0.075], ["2018-08-30", 0.075], ["2018-09-01", 0.075], ["2018-09-01", 0.075], ["2018-09-02", 0.075], ["2018-09-02", 0.075], ["2018-09-03", 0.06], ["2018-09-03", 0.06], ["2018-09-06", 0.06], ["2018-09-07", 0.06], ["2018-09-08", 0.06], ["2018-09-09", 0.06], ["2018-09-10", 0.06], ["2018-09-11", 0.06], ["2018-09-11", 0.06], ["2018-09-12", 0.06], ["2018-09-13", 0.06], ["2018-09-13", 0.05], ["2018-09-15", 0.07], ["2018-09-16", 0.065], ["2018-09-18", 0.065], ["2018-09-18", 0.065], ["2018-09-19", 0.065], ["2018-09-20", 0.065], ["2018-09-21", 0.07], ["2018-09-21", 0.07], ["2018-09-22", 0.07], ["2018-09-24", 0.07], ["2018-09-25", 0.07], ["2018-09-25", 0.07], ["2018-09-26", 0.06], ["2018-09-28", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-10-01", 0.06]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/968 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">FAQ</a> or <a href="mailto:[email protected]?subject=Question Clarification" target="_blank">ask us for help</a>.</sub>
<hr> | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.75], ["2018-06-27", 0.77], ["2018-06-27", 0.385], ["2018-06-27", 0.425], ["2018-06-28", 0.43], ["2018-06-28", 0.45], ["2018-06-28", 0.45], ["2018-06-28", 0.525], ["2018-06-28", 0.525], ["2018-06-29", 0.425], ["2018-06-29", 0.29], ["2018-06-29", 0.25], ["2018-06-29", 0.25], ["2018-07-01", 0.15], ["2018-07-02", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.165], ["2018-07-03", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.15], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-06", 0.125], ["2018-07-06", 0.125], ["2018-07-09", 0.125], ["2018-07-10", 0.1], ["2018-07-12", 0.1], ["2018-07-13", 0.11], ["2018-07-15", 0.1], ["2018-07-15", 0.1], ["2018-07-16", 0.1], ["2018-07-18", 0.1], ["2018-07-19", 0.1], ["2018-07-19", 0.1], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-23", 0.1], ["2018-07-24", 0.1], ["2018-07-29", 0.12], ["2018-07-29", 0.12], ["2018-07-30", 0.12], ["2018-07-30", 0.12], ["2018-08-02", 0.12], ["2018-08-05", 0.12], ["2018-08-09", 0.11], ["2018-08-09", 0.08], ["2018-08-10", 0.11], ["2018-08-12", 0.1], ["2018-08-12", 0.1], ["2018-08-13", 0.1], ["2018-08-14", 0.1], ["2018-08-16", 0.08], ["2018-08-18", 0.08], ["2018-08-18", 0.08], ["2018-08-21", 0.08], ["2018-08-22", 0.085], ["2018-08-22", 0.085], ["2018-08-23", 0.085], ["2018-08-27", 0.085], ["2018-08-29", 0.085], ["2018-09-02", 0.085], ["2018-09-03", 0.085], ["2018-09-06", 0.085], ["2018-09-11", 0.085], ["2018-09-12", 0.085], ["2018-09-13", 0.085], ["2018-09-13", 0.06], ["2018-09-18", 0.06], ["2018-09-20", 0.06], ["2018-09-20", 0.07], ["2018-09-22", 0.07], ["2018-09-22", 0.05], ["2018-09-24", 0.05], ["2018-09-26", 0.05], ["2018-09-28", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/978 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.25], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.1], ["2018-06-27", 0.11], ["2018-06-27", 0.065], ["2018-06-27", 0.12], ["2018-06-28", 0.03], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-28", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.11], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-07-01", 0.11], ["2018-07-02", 0.11], ["2018-07-02", 0.07], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.06], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-03", 0.05], ["2018-07-04", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-06", 0.05], ["2018-07-09", 0.05], ["2018-07-12", 0.05], ["2018-07-14", 0.05], ["2018-07-15", 0.05], ["2018-07-16", 0.045], ["2018-07-18", 0.045], ["2018-07-19", 0.045], ["2018-07-23", 0.045], ["2018-07-23", 0.045], ["2018-07-24", 0.035], ["2018-07-29", 0.035], ["2018-07-30", 0.035], ["2018-07-30", 0.035], ["2018-08-03", 0.035], ["2018-08-05", 0.035], ["2018-08-06", 0.035], ["2018-08-09", 0.02], ["2018-08-09", 0.02], ["2018-08-10", 0.02], ["2018-08-13", 0.02], ["2018-08-13", 0.02], ["2018-08-14", 0.015], ["2018-08-16", 0.015], ["2018-08-18", 0.015], ["2018-08-22", 0.015], ["2018-08-23", 0.015], ["2018-08-23", 0.015], ["2018-08-27", 0.015], ["2018-08-29", 0.015], ["2018-09-02", 0.015], ["2018-09-03", 0.02], ["2018-09-06", 0.02], ["2018-09-11", 0.02], ["2018-09-13", 0.02], ["2018-09-13", 0.02], ["2018-09-18", 0.02], ["2018-09-20", 0.02], ["2018-09-22", 0.03], ["2018-09-23", 0.03], ["2018-09-24", 0.03], ["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.03], ["2018-10-01", 0.03]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/982 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.15], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.01], ["2018-06-28", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.0], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-06-29", 0.02], ["2018-07-01", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.005], ["2018-07-02", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-03", 0.0], ["2018-07-04", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.01], ["2018-07-09", 0.01], ["2018-07-12", 0.01], ["2018-07-13", 0.01], ["2018-07-15", 0.01], ["2018-07-16", 0.015], ["2018-07-18", 0.015], ["2018-07-19", 0.015], ["2018-07-23", 0.015], ["2018-07-23", 0.01], ["2018-07-24", 0.01], ["2018-07-29", 0.01], ["2018-07-30", 0.01], ["2018-08-03", 0.015], ["2018-08-05", 0.015], ["2018-08-06", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-09", 0.01], ["2018-08-12", 0.01], ["2018-08-13", 0.01], ["2018-08-14", 0.01], ["2018-08-16", 0.01], ["2018-08-18", 0.01], ["2018-08-22", 0.01], ["2018-08-23", 0.01], ["2018-08-27", 0.01], ["2018-09-02", 0.01], ["2018-09-03", 0.01], ["2018-09-06", 0.01], ["2018-09-11", 0.01], ["2018-09-12", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.01], ["2018-09-13", 0.005], ["2018-09-15", 0.005], ["2018-09-18", 0.005], ["2018-09-20", 0.01], ["2018-09-22", 0.01], ["2018-09-24", 0.01], ["2018-09-25", 0.005], ["2018-09-26", 0.0], ["2018-09-28", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0], ["2018-10-01", 0.0]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/981 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-27", 0.25], ["2018-06-27", 0.185], ["2018-06-27", 0.195], ["2018-06-27", 0.2], ["2018-06-27", 0.27], ["2018-06-27", 0.13], ["2018-06-27", 0.125], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.11], ["2018-06-28", 0.12], ["2018-06-29", 0.11], ["2018-06-29", 0.15], ["2018-06-29", 0.13], ["2018-06-29", 0.125], ["2018-06-30", 0.1], ["2018-07-01", 0.125], ["2018-07-02", 0.125], ["2018-07-02", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.1], ["2018-07-03", 0.09], ["2018-07-03", 0.095], ["2018-07-03", 0.085], ["2018-07-04", 0.085], ["2018-07-05", 0.105], ["2018-07-06", 0.12], ["2018-07-06", 0.12], ["2018-07-09", 0.12], ["2018-07-12", 0.12], ["2018-07-14", 0.12], ["2018-07-15", 0.12], ["2018-07-16", 0.15], ["2018-07-18", 0.15], ["2018-07-19", 0.15], ["2018-07-23", 0.15], ["2018-07-24", 0.14], ["2018-07-24", 0.13], ["2018-07-26", 0.105], ["2018-07-29", 0.105], ["2018-07-30", 0.105], ["2018-07-30", 0.105], ["2018-08-01", 0.095], ["2018-08-03", 0.095], ["2018-08-05", 0.095], ["2018-08-09", 0.05], ["2018-08-09", 0.06], ["2018-08-13", 0.06], ["2018-08-13", 0.06], ["2018-08-14", 0.06], ["2018-08-16", 0.085], ["2018-08-18", 0.085], ["2018-08-22", 0.085], ["2018-08-23", 0.085], ["2018-08-26", 0.09], ["2018-08-27", 0.09], ["2018-08-30", 0.095], ["2018-09-03", 0.095], ["2018-09-06", 0.095], ["2018-09-11", 0.095], ["2018-09-13", 0.095], ["2018-09-13", 0.045], ["2018-09-18", 0.045], ["2018-09-20", 0.06], ["2018-09-22", 0.06], ["2018-09-23", 0.06], ["2018-09-24", 0.06], ["2018-09-25", 0.045], ["2018-09-28", 0.08], ["2018-09-28", 0.08], ["2018-09-29", 0.08], ["2018-10-01", 0.08]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/985 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen? | gjopen | 0 |
2019-12-09 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-06-27", 0.07], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.01], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.045], ["2018-06-27", 0.045], ["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.08], ["2018-06-28", 0.055], ["2018-06-28", 0.015], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-29", 0.005], ["2018-06-30", 0.01], ["2018-07-01", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.02], ["2018-07-02", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.015], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-03", 0.01], ["2018-07-06", 0.015], ["2018-07-06", 0.015], ["2018-07-09", 0.02], ["2018-07-12", 0.015], ["2018-07-13", 0.015], ["2018-07-15", 0.015], ["2018-07-15", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.02], ["2018-07-16", 0.025], ["2018-07-17", 0.025], ["2018-07-18", 0.025], ["2018-07-19", 0.025], ["2018-07-20", 0.025], ["2018-07-22", 0.02], ["2018-07-23", 0.02], ["2018-07-24", 0.02], ["2018-07-24", 0.03], ["2018-07-25", 0.035], ["2018-07-25", 0.045], ["2018-07-26", 0.045], ["2018-07-27", 0.05], ["2018-07-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-29", 0.05], ["2018-07-30", 0.05], ["2018-07-30", 0.05], ["2018-08-01", 0.05], ["2018-08-02", 0.05], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-05", 0.05], ["2018-08-06", 0.05], ["2018-08-09", 0.05], ["2018-08-10", 0.065], ["2018-08-12", 0.065], ["2018-08-12", 0.065], ["2018-08-13", 0.065], ["2018-08-14", 0.05], ["2018-08-15", 0.05], ["2018-08-16", 0.05], ["2018-08-18", 0.05], ["2018-08-21", 0.05], ["2018-08-22", 0.05], ["2018-08-23", 0.055], ["2018-08-23", 0.055], ["2018-08-27", 0.055], ["2018-08-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-03", 0.045], ["2018-09-05", 0.035], ["2018-09-05", 0.035], ["2018-09-06", 0.035], ["2018-09-11", 0.035], ["2018-09-12", 0.035], ["2018-09-12", 0.035], ["2018-09-13", 0.035], ["2018-09-13", 0.035], ["2018-09-18", 0.035], ["2018-09-20", 0.035], ["2018-09-20", 0.035], ["2018-09-21", 0.03], ["2018-09-22", 0.03], ["2018-09-22", 0.03], ["2018-09-24", 0.03], ["2018-09-25", 0.03], ["2018-09-26", 0.03], ["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.02], ["2018-10-01", 0.02]] | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/973 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (<a href = "http://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2017/03/31/bringing-the-wisdom-of-the-crowd-to-help-the-early-warning-project/"target="_blank">Good Judgment Inc</a>). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org/opinion-pool-examples"target="_blank">EWP</a>) for examples. See (<a href = "https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question2"target="_blank">GJOpen</a>) for GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2018-10-01 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh? | gjopen | 0 |
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