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2021-06-23 | 2021-06-12 | [] | binary | [["2021-06-15", 0.675], ["2021-06-15", 0.62], ["2021-06-16", 0.678], ["2021-06-16", 0.692], ["2021-06-16", 0.692], ["2021-06-16", 0.727], ["2021-06-16", 0.727], ["2021-06-16", 0.736], ["2021-06-16", 0.688], ["2021-06-16", 0.656], ["2021-06-16", 0.666], ["2021-06-16", 0.662], ["2021-06-16", 0.662], ["2021-06-16", 0.669], ["2021-06-16", 0.639], ["2021-06-16", 0.642], ["2021-06-16", 0.642], ["2021-06-16", 0.641], ["2021-06-16", 0.641], ["2021-06-16", 0.636], ["2021-06-16", 0.634], ["2021-06-16", 0.631], ["2021-06-16", 0.63], ["2021-06-17", 0.63], ["2021-06-17", 0.622], ["2021-06-17", 0.604], ["2021-06-17", 0.614], ["2021-06-17", 0.614], ["2021-06-17", 0.612], ["2021-06-17", 0.607], ["2021-06-17", 0.61], ["2021-06-17", 0.608], ["2021-06-17", 0.608], ["2021-06-17", 0.61], ["2021-06-17", 0.61], ["2021-06-17", 0.61], ["2021-06-17", 0.61], ["2021-06-18", 0.61], ["2021-06-18", 0.608], ["2021-06-18", 0.61], ["2021-06-19", 0.61], ["2021-06-19", 0.61], ["2021-06-19", 0.606], ["2021-06-20", 0.599], ["2021-06-20", 0.604], ["2021-06-20", 0.604], ["2021-06-20", 0.599], ["2021-06-20", 0.591], ["2021-06-20", 0.591], ["2021-06-20", 0.591], ["2021-06-21", 0.593], ["2021-06-21", 0.591], ["2021-06-22", 0.591], ["2021-06-22", 0.595], ["2021-06-22", 0.598], ["2021-06-22", 0.598], ["2021-06-22", 0.597], ["2021-06-22", 0.605], ["2021-06-22", 0.606], ["2021-06-22", 0.606], ["2021-06-23", 0.609], ["2021-06-23", 0.609], ["2021-06-23", 0.606], ["2021-06-23", 0.606], ["2021-06-23", 0.611]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7376/ | In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the "fear gauge". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.
To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month.
Typically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of 82.69 on the 16th with an intra-daily peak of 85.54 on the 18th. At just above 18 at the beginning of June 2021, the VIX has now fallen back in line with its typical values. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if at any point before 9-01-21 an intra-daily or closing value of the VIX falls below 15.
Resolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch | true | 2021-08-02 | Will the VIX Index reach 15 or below before 9-01-21? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-07-27 | 2021-06-12 | [] | binary | [["2021-06-15", 0.35], ["2021-06-15", 0.275], ["2021-06-16", 0.267], ["2021-06-16", 0.35], ["2021-06-16", 0.35], ["2021-06-16", 0.368], ["2021-06-16", 0.345], ["2021-06-17", 0.338], ["2021-06-18", 0.338], ["2021-06-18", 0.339], ["2021-06-19", 0.346], ["2021-06-19", 0.346], ["2021-06-19", 0.387], ["2021-06-20", 0.383], ["2021-06-21", 0.405], ["2021-06-21", 0.425], ["2021-06-22", 0.425], ["2021-06-22", 0.455], ["2021-06-23", 0.444], ["2021-06-23", 0.439], ["2021-06-23", 0.437], ["2021-06-23", 0.437], ["2021-06-23", 0.441], ["2021-06-24", 0.441], ["2021-06-24", 0.43], ["2021-06-25", 0.43], ["2021-06-25", 0.438], ["2021-06-25", 0.45], ["2021-06-25", 0.456], ["2021-06-25", 0.458], ["2021-06-26", 0.46], ["2021-06-28", 0.459], ["2021-07-03", 0.459], ["2021-07-03", 0.46], ["2021-07-04", 0.46], ["2021-07-04", 0.456], ["2021-07-05", 0.48], ["2021-07-05", 0.473], ["2021-07-06", 0.473], ["2021-07-07", 0.469], ["2021-07-08", 0.469], ["2021-07-09", 0.474], ["2021-07-11", 0.466], ["2021-07-12", 0.465], ["2021-07-15", 0.468], ["2021-07-15", 0.467], ["2021-07-16", 0.467], ["2021-07-18", 0.464], ["2021-07-19", 0.463], ["2021-07-19", 0.461], ["2021-07-20", 0.478], ["2021-07-20", 0.478], ["2021-07-20", 0.478], ["2021-07-20", 0.475], ["2021-07-20", 0.493], ["2021-07-21", 0.493], ["2021-07-21", 0.509], ["2021-07-21", 0.509], ["2021-07-21", 0.507], ["2021-07-22", 0.515], ["2021-07-22", 0.504], ["2021-07-22", 0.504], ["2021-07-22", 0.517], ["2021-07-22", 0.517], ["2021-07-22", 0.523], ["2021-07-22", 0.522], ["2021-07-22", 0.533], ["2021-07-22", 0.547], ["2021-07-23", 0.547], ["2021-07-23", 0.554], ["2021-07-23", 0.554], ["2021-07-24", 0.568], ["2021-07-25", 0.59], ["2021-07-26", 0.601], ["2021-07-26", 0.599], ["2021-07-26", 0.597]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7378/ | The MOVE Index is quite similar to the VIX Index, except that it tracks the volatility in the bond market, rather than the stock market.
MOVE Index creator Harley Bassman comments that:
"Why the MOVE was so valuable recently is that, while the VIX and equity markets get all the headlines; the bond bucket is actually much bigger, and it tends to signal things ahead of the equity market, because the underlying plumbing of finance happens in the bond market. Although the VIX went up a lot, the MOVE went up awful a lot more - and that really told you that this was a serious problem in the market, because bonds should not move more than stocks do."
In March 2020, while the VIX Index reached a level of 53.54, the MOVE Index nearly tripled that with a closing index value of nearly 140. In the beginning of June 2021, the MOVE Index sat at just above 50. However, since the beginning of the pandemic it has only just dipped below 40 a handful of times. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if at any point before 11-01-21 the MOVE Index breaches 70. This will include inter-daily values, and the last day counted will be the closing value on 10-31-21.
If no closing or inter-daily value breach 70 before before 11-01-21, then this question will resolve negatively.
Resolution source will come from Google Finance or from any other reliable financial reporting platform | true | 2021-10-01 | Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-02-10 | 2021-06-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-23", 0.43], ["2021-08-23", 0.623], ["2021-08-23", 0.605], ["2021-08-23", 0.588], ["2021-08-23", 0.573], ["2021-08-24", 0.573], ["2021-08-24", 0.563], ["2021-08-24", 0.559], ["2021-08-24", 0.596], ["2021-08-24", 0.653], ["2021-08-24", 0.653], ["2021-08-24", 0.64], ["2021-08-25", 0.673], ["2021-08-25", 0.673], ["2021-08-25", 0.665], ["2021-08-25", 0.665], ["2021-08-25", 0.669], ["2021-08-25", 0.668], ["2021-08-25", 0.664], ["2021-08-25", 0.664], ["2021-08-25", 0.67], ["2021-08-25", 0.682], ["2021-08-26", 0.683], ["2021-08-27", 0.681], ["2021-08-27", 0.692], ["2021-08-28", 0.692], ["2021-08-30", 0.693], ["2021-08-30", 0.702], ["2021-08-31", 0.707], ["2021-09-03", 0.71], ["2021-09-07", 0.71], ["2021-09-07", 0.712], ["2021-09-14", 0.714], ["2021-09-14", 0.681], ["2021-09-14", 0.671], ["2021-09-14", 0.671], ["2021-09-14", 0.67], ["2021-09-15", 0.669], ["2021-09-15", 0.666], ["2021-09-16", 0.67], ["2021-09-16", 0.675], ["2021-09-17", 0.651], ["2021-09-17", 0.652], ["2021-09-17", 0.654], ["2021-09-20", 0.645], ["2021-09-20", 0.651], ["2021-09-20", 0.653], ["2021-09-20", 0.639], ["2021-09-20", 0.642], ["2021-09-20", 0.647], ["2021-09-20", 0.652], ["2021-09-21", 0.659], ["2021-09-21", 0.663], ["2021-09-21", 0.663], ["2021-09-22", 0.668], ["2021-09-23", 0.671], ["2021-09-23", 0.678], ["2021-09-25", 0.678], ["2021-10-05", 0.679], ["2021-10-07", 0.679], ["2021-10-13", 0.679], ["2021-10-13", 0.683], ["2021-10-17", 0.683], ["2021-10-30", 0.683], ["2021-11-01", 0.685], ["2021-11-06", 0.683], ["2021-11-10", 0.688], ["2021-11-10", 0.688], ["2021-11-10", 0.688], ["2021-11-10", 0.692], ["2021-11-10", 0.692], ["2021-11-11", 0.701], ["2021-11-11", 0.705], ["2021-11-12", 0.71], ["2021-11-14", 0.71], ["2021-11-15", 0.719], ["2021-11-15", 0.72], ["2021-11-15", 0.72], ["2021-11-15", 0.722], ["2021-11-19", 0.722], ["2021-11-19", 0.732], ["2021-11-21", 0.732], ["2021-11-22", 0.735], ["2021-12-02", 0.736], ["2021-12-02", 0.74], ["2021-12-07", 0.744], ["2021-12-10", 0.747], ["2021-12-10", 0.747], ["2021-12-15", 0.747], ["2021-12-17", 0.747], ["2021-12-25", 0.749], ["2022-01-03", 0.749], ["2022-01-17", 0.758], ["2022-01-17", 0.759], ["2022-01-17", 0.759], ["2022-01-27", 0.764], ["2022-01-27", 0.766], ["2022-01-28", 0.766], ["2022-01-28", 0.766], ["2022-02-02", 0.775], ["2022-02-07", 0.776]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7382/ | "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living." (Investopedia)
The question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy ("Core CPI") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.
The "Core CPI" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). | Economics & Business | We will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series CUUR0000SA0L1E) for resolution.
This question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.
This question resolves negatively if otherwise.
Fine Print
[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021. | true | 2023-12-31 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-11-08 | 2021-06-14 | ["https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/stat\u2026"] | binary | [["2021-10-14", 0.6], ["2021-10-15", 0.6], ["2021-10-15", 0.65], ["2021-10-16", 0.638], ["2021-10-16", 0.672], ["2021-10-17", 0.688], ["2021-10-17", 0.688], ["2021-10-17", 0.69], ["2021-10-18", 0.669], ["2021-10-18", 0.673], ["2021-10-19", 0.678], ["2021-10-19", 0.685], ["2021-10-19", 0.685], ["2021-10-19", 0.691], ["2021-10-20", 0.68], ["2021-10-21", 0.671], ["2021-10-21", 0.671], ["2021-10-23", 0.67], ["2021-10-24", 0.671], ["2021-10-26", 0.681], ["2021-10-27", 0.686], ["2021-10-28", 0.69], ["2021-10-28", 0.69], ["2021-10-28", 0.685], ["2021-10-30", 0.691], ["2021-11-01", 0.691], ["2021-11-01", 0.691], ["2021-11-02", 0.691], ["2021-11-02", 0.704], ["2021-11-03", 0.7], ["2021-11-03", 0.698], ["2021-11-03", 0.695], ["2021-11-03", 0.695], ["2021-11-03", 0.691], ["2021-11-04", 0.688], ["2021-11-06", 0.687], ["2021-11-06", 0.693], ["2021-11-06", 0.698], ["2021-11-06", 0.7], ["2021-11-06", 0.709], ["2021-11-06", 0.719], ["2021-11-06", 0.729], ["2021-11-06", 0.729], ["2021-11-06", 0.752], ["2021-11-06", 0.762], ["2021-11-06", 0.762], ["2021-11-06", 0.776], ["2021-11-06", 0.776], ["2021-11-06", 0.795], ["2021-11-06", 0.795], ["2021-11-06", 0.804], ["2021-11-06", 0.803], ["2021-11-06", 0.809], ["2021-11-06", 0.822], ["2021-11-06", 0.822], ["2021-11-06", 0.827], ["2021-11-06", 0.836], ["2021-11-06", 0.84], ["2021-11-07", 0.852], ["2021-11-07", 0.856], ["2021-11-07", 0.856], ["2021-11-07", 0.871], ["2021-11-07", 0.871], ["2021-11-08", 0.88], ["2021-11-08", 0.88], ["2021-11-08", 0.881]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7386/ | Passing an infrastructure package is a major goal of the Biden Administration. Biden proposed the American Jobs Plan, a $1.9 trillion infrastructure plan, in April. But, he has to either get all 50 senate Democrats to pass a bill through budget reconciliation, or get at least 10 Republicans to vote for the bill.
Biden's infrastructure plan can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/stat… | Politics & Governance | This resolves positively if in 2021 Congress passes and the president signs an infrastructure package that will cost at least $1 trillion over 10 years, according to the CBO. Resolves per credible media reporting. This question closes retroactively to one week prior to the day of passage | true | 2021-12-03 | Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-12-30 | 2021-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-04", 0.4], ["2021-08-04", 0.407], ["2021-08-04", 0.43], ["2021-08-04", 0.354], ["2021-08-06", 0.352], ["2021-08-06", 0.352], ["2021-08-06", 0.335], ["2021-08-06", 0.33], ["2021-08-06", 0.33], ["2021-08-06", 0.322], ["2021-08-07", 0.331], ["2021-08-07", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.308], ["2021-08-08", 0.308], ["2021-08-08", 0.309], ["2021-08-09", 0.309], ["2021-08-09", 0.309], ["2021-08-09", 0.309], ["2021-08-11", 0.304], ["2021-08-12", 0.304], ["2021-08-12", 0.301], ["2021-08-12", 0.297], ["2021-08-12", 0.296], ["2021-08-14", 0.296], ["2021-08-15", 0.294], ["2021-08-16", 0.295], ["2021-08-16", 0.295], ["2021-08-16", 0.301], ["2021-08-17", 0.298], ["2021-08-17", 0.298], ["2021-08-19", 0.285], ["2021-08-19", 0.285], ["2021-08-20", 0.289], ["2021-08-20", 0.289], ["2021-08-20", 0.283], ["2021-08-20", 0.283], ["2021-08-20", 0.279], ["2021-08-21", 0.27], ["2021-08-21", 0.268], ["2021-08-22", 0.267], ["2021-08-23", 0.266], ["2021-08-24", 0.27], ["2021-08-25", 0.27], ["2021-08-25", 0.268], ["2021-08-25", 0.269], ["2021-08-25", 0.27], ["2021-08-25", 0.27], ["2021-08-26", 0.272], ["2021-08-27", 0.273], ["2021-08-27", 0.271], ["2021-08-30", 0.271], ["2021-08-30", 0.271], ["2021-08-31", 0.271], ["2021-08-31", 0.262], ["2021-08-31", 0.261], ["2021-08-31", 0.26], ["2021-09-01", 0.253], ["2021-09-01", 0.25]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7448/ | NASA recently awarded SpaceX $2.9B as the sole winner of its Human Landing System competition to bring astronauts back to the moon. It had been expected that NASA would issue two awards, due to its previous statements that competition and redundancy were "extremely important principles" for the program, and so only having one was widely seen as surprising.
In its source selection statement [pdf], NASA stressed that the selection of a single provider was due entirely to the fact that the HLS program was underfunded, to the point where they could only award the cheapest bid from SpaceX after negotiating with them to change the funding schedule. Later information releases revealed that SpaceX had bid $2.9B, Blue Origin $5.9B, and Dynetics approximately $8.5B.
There have been several developments since then which have raised the possibility of NASA revisiting this contract and awarding two providers as it had originally planned:
Blue Origin and Dynetics quickly filed protests on what they claim to be an unfair award selection, and NASA issued a stop-work order to SpaceX until the Government Accountability Office reviewed the protests. The GAO denied these protest on July 30, saying that NASA acted legally in awarding only a single company.
The version of S. 1260 The U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness Act which the Senate passed on June 8 includes in it language which directs NASA to select a second HLS provider, while protecting SpaceX's current award. It would have to do this within 60 days from the current list of bids, which means either Blue Origin or Dynetics would be selected. However, this directive is an authorization, not an appropriation, meaning that it does not provide funding for this mandate. Additionally, it appears that there may be some resistance to this in the House, and the bill's ultimate future is unknown.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson is pushing to fund HLS with a total of $10B through the "infrastructure bill" which Congress is currently debating.
On July 26, Jeff Bezos offered to waive the first $2 billion in costs if NASA chose Blue Origin as a second HLS lander system. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if before 1 January 2022, NASA awards a fully funded second HLS contract to a provider other than SpaceX.
This question will resolve negatively otherwise.
Fine Print
This only covers the Option A HLS award, and not any follow-on competitions under the HLS umbrella.
"Fully funded" for the purposes of this question will mean at least 75% of that bid's requested funding is appropriated by Congress. This would cover a $10B appropriation with 100% of SpaceX’s funding met and the rest of the money going towards either of the other two bids. If any company lowers their bid (i.e. Bezos' $2B discount), then the "fully funded" criteria will apply to the new lowered total bid amount. | true | 2021-09-01 | Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-29 | 2021-06-29 | ["https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prim\u2026", "https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefa\u2026"] | binary | [["2021-07-04", 0.5], ["2021-07-04", 0.42], ["2021-07-05", 0.42], ["2021-07-05", 0.44], ["2021-07-05", 0.43], ["2021-07-06", 0.428], ["2021-07-06", 0.428], ["2021-07-07", 0.436], ["2021-07-07", 0.436], ["2021-07-08", 0.449], ["2021-07-08", 0.453], ["2021-07-08", 0.428], ["2021-07-12", 0.397], ["2021-07-12", 0.397], ["2021-07-14", 0.382], ["2021-07-15", 0.382], ["2021-07-15", 0.379], ["2021-07-17", 0.379], ["2021-07-19", 0.375], ["2021-07-19", 0.373], ["2021-07-19", 0.375], ["2021-07-19", 0.373], ["2021-07-19", 0.372], ["2021-07-19", 0.372], ["2021-07-20", 0.377], ["2021-07-20", 0.379], ["2021-07-20", 0.374], ["2021-07-21", 0.372], ["2021-07-21", 0.372], ["2021-07-21", 0.372], ["2021-07-28", 0.374], ["2021-07-31", 0.371], ["2021-07-31", 0.364], ["2021-07-31", 0.358], ["2021-08-05", 0.345], ["2021-08-05", 0.353], ["2021-08-05", 0.349], ["2021-08-06", 0.344], ["2021-08-08", 0.344], ["2021-08-09", 0.337], ["2021-08-09", 0.337], ["2021-08-09", 0.333], ["2021-08-16", 0.334], ["2021-08-22", 0.336], ["2021-08-23", 0.336], ["2021-08-24", 0.332], ["2021-08-26", 0.331], ["2021-08-26", 0.33], ["2021-08-26", 0.335], ["2021-08-27", 0.334], ["2021-08-28", 0.328], ["2021-08-28", 0.328], ["2021-08-28", 0.323], ["2021-08-28", 0.324], ["2021-08-31", 0.322], ["2021-08-31", 0.321], ["2021-09-03", 0.32], ["2021-09-04", 0.319], ["2021-09-05", 0.317], ["2021-09-10", 0.317], ["2021-09-10", 0.32], ["2021-09-12", 0.323], ["2021-09-17", 0.326], ["2021-09-18", 0.326], ["2021-09-18", 0.33], ["2021-09-18", 0.321], ["2021-09-18", 0.302], ["2021-09-18", 0.303], ["2021-09-18", 0.302], ["2021-09-18", 0.298], ["2021-09-19", 0.293], ["2021-09-20", 0.292], ["2021-09-20", 0.292], ["2021-09-22", 0.294], ["2021-09-22", 0.294], ["2021-09-22", 0.29], ["2021-09-22", 0.281], ["2021-09-23", 0.281], ["2021-09-23", 0.276], ["2021-09-23", 0.265], ["2021-09-24", 0.265], ["2021-09-24", 0.261], ["2021-09-24", 0.247], ["2021-09-24", 0.242], ["2021-09-24", 0.242], ["2021-09-25", 0.238], ["2021-09-26", 0.238], ["2021-09-28", 0.232], ["2021-09-29", 0.227], ["2021-09-29", 0.223], ["2021-09-29", 0.223], ["2021-09-29", 0.222], ["2021-09-29", 0.216], ["2021-09-29", 0.188], ["2021-09-30", 0.185], ["2021-09-30", 0.18], ["2021-09-30", 0.18], ["2021-09-30", 0.16], ["2021-09-30", 0.16], ["2021-09-30", 0.157], ["2021-09-30", 0.152]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7492/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven resigned on June 28th, after losing a vote of confidence in the parliament. Now there will be discussions between the speaker of the parliament and all party leaders in the search for a majority coalition. The two major blocks are very tightly matched at this point at 175-174. After the election in 2018 it took 134 days to form an agreement between the parties that have been in majority since then.
The speaker will make a suggestion to the parliament when he feels he has found a candidate for prime minister that the majority will accept. There is no formal time limit for this process. If at least 175 out of the 349 members of parliament vote against the candidate, the speaker has to come up with a new suggestion. After four votes where each candidate loses, an extra election must be announced, and the election will need to take place within 3 months.
Sources: https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prim…
https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefa… (before the resignation)
Will Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021?
The question resolves positively if there is a general election for parliament in Sweden on or before December 31 2021. The final results need not be ready before this date.
In all other cases this question resolves negatively (e.g. there is no election because a new PM is elected by parliament, or there is an election on or after January 1 2022).
Pre-votes (mail votes) may be sent beforehand, but for positive resolution there needs to be an actual "voting day" where physical voting locations are open to the public, before December 31. | true | 2021-09-30 | Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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The UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta.
This question asks:
Will the UK reach 100 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?
This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 700.
If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.
Data updates meaning that more than 350 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).
This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. | true | 2021-08-22 | Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Since the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country.
In early July 2021, the Associated Press reported Taliban advances in several northern districts:
The Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday.
Later the same month, Reuters reported the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers:
Milley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan.
It is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, Kabul (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts.
It is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's 22 districts, so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of ARG, the Presidential Palace, located within District 2. ARG houses the offices of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. | Security & Defense | If credible media reports that the Taliban have captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul at some point on or before September 11, 2026, this question resolves positively, otherwise negatively | true | 2026-01-01 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | metaculus | 1 |
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The UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. A previous version of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%.
This question asks:
Will the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?
This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 1750.
If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.
Data updates meaning that more than 1000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). | true | 2021-11-30 | Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?
The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named "Delta".
Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?
This question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases, unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data. | true | 2021-08-31 | Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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The 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths last exceeded 1000 on 13 March 2021. | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is greater than 1000. The source will be CDC's official count of COVID-19 deaths. Make sure the "Daily Deaths" view is selected | true | 2021-08-31 | Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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The 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations last exceeded 6000 on 26 February 2021. | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations is greater than 6000. The source will be CDC's official count of new daily COVID-19 hospitalizations. Select the "By Jurisdiction" tab to see daily hospitalizations | true | 2021-08-31 | Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-01 | 2021-07-24 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-03", 0.06], ["2021-08-03", 0.06], ["2021-08-03", 0.1], ["2021-08-03", 0.333], ["2021-08-04", 0.367], ["2021-08-04", 0.367], ["2021-08-04", 0.587], ["2021-08-04", 0.587], ["2021-08-04", 0.43], ["2021-08-05", 0.292], ["2021-08-05", 0.264], ["2021-08-05", 0.237], ["2021-08-05", 0.237], ["2021-08-06", 0.234], ["2021-08-06", 0.234], ["2021-08-06", 0.214], ["2021-08-06", 0.2], ["2021-08-06", 0.2], ["2021-08-06", 0.192], ["2021-08-06", 0.192], ["2021-08-06", 0.178], ["2021-08-06", 0.197], ["2021-08-06", 0.202], ["2021-08-06", 0.202], ["2021-08-06", 0.176], ["2021-08-06", 0.213], ["2021-08-06", 0.213], ["2021-08-06", 0.213], ["2021-08-07", 0.213], ["2021-08-08", 0.198], ["2021-08-08", 0.199], ["2021-08-08", 0.199], ["2021-08-08", 0.196], ["2021-08-08", 0.196], ["2021-08-09", 0.199], ["2021-08-09", 0.199], ["2021-08-09", 0.208], ["2021-08-09", 0.23], ["2021-08-09", 0.224], ["2021-08-10", 0.224], ["2021-08-10", 0.223], ["2021-08-10", 0.221], ["2021-08-10", 0.22], ["2021-08-10", 0.22], ["2021-08-10", 0.22], ["2021-08-11", 0.224], ["2021-08-11", 0.222], ["2021-08-11", 0.222], ["2021-08-11", 0.216], ["2021-08-11", 0.226], ["2021-08-11", 0.214], ["2021-08-12", 0.216], ["2021-08-12", 0.216], ["2021-08-12", 0.216], ["2021-08-12", 0.211], ["2021-08-13", 0.211], ["2021-08-15", 0.209], ["2021-08-15", 0.209], ["2021-08-18", 0.208], ["2021-08-20", 0.213], ["2021-08-22", 0.211], ["2021-08-23", 0.211], ["2021-08-25", 0.202], ["2021-08-25", 0.201], ["2021-08-25", 0.199], ["2021-08-25", 0.201], ["2021-08-27", 0.201], ["2021-08-30", 0.199], ["2021-08-30", 0.199], ["2021-08-31", 0.201], ["2021-08-31", 0.199], ["2021-08-31", 0.201], ["2021-08-31", 0.201], ["2021-08-31", 0.2], ["2021-08-31", 0.194], ["2021-08-31", 0.192], ["2021-08-31", 0.189], ["2021-08-31", 0.184], ["2021-09-01", 0.18], ["2021-09-01", 0.18], ["2021-09-01", 0.185], ["2021-09-01", 0.181], ["2021-09-01", 0.181]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7569/ | The Delta variant is fueling resurgences of COVID cases in the UK and the US. The UK's case rate has spiked back to near its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, while the US's rates are ominously rising after a vaccine-fueled decline.
This question asks which country will have a worse initial Delta Wave of COVID (as defined in the fine print). | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if the peak daily number of reported deaths per million from COVID in the UK, using a 7-day rolling average, between July 1, 2021 and the end of the Delta Wave (as defined in the fine print) is greater than the same for the US.
All data for resolving this question shall be drawn from Our World in Data.
Fine Print
For the purposes of this bet, we will define the beginning of the "Delta Wave" to have begun on July 1 for each country.
The Delta Wave of each respective country shall be deemed to end at the earliest of the following:
The Delta variant (including any lineages descended from the Delta variant) no longer comprises the majority of cases in the country.
The 7-day rolling average of reported daily deaths per million stays below 50% of a previously observed peak during the Delta Wave for 30 consecutive days.
The end of the year 2021.
Note that the Delta Wave of each country may end at different times, and the relevant comparison is between the maximum number of deaths in each country's respective Wave, even if the Waves end at different times. | true | 2021-09-01 | Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will the US Supreme Court begin hearing Harvard vs SFFA before 2030? | Politics & Governance | This will resolve in the positive if, before 2030, an order list on the Supreme Court website indicates that certioriari is granted to Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case with other cases. Otherwise, it resolves negatively | true | 2030-01-01 | Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-10-14 | 2021-07-31 | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/14/nikola-nkla-founder-trevor-milton-found-guilty-of-fraud-.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1665778810", "https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1581015879503839232", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/nikola-founder-was-con-man-us-prosecutor-tells-jurors-2022-10-13/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-won-t-testify-in-his-fraud-trial?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic", "https://www.reuters.com/legal/nikola-founder-trevor-miltons-us-trial-begin-with-jury-selection-2022-09-12/"] | binary | [["2021-08-15", 0.4], ["2021-08-15", 0.4], ["2021-08-15", 0.42], ["2021-08-15", 0.56], ["2021-08-15", 0.49], ["2021-08-16", 0.49], ["2021-08-16", 0.455], ["2021-08-16", 0.47], ["2021-08-16", 0.46], ["2021-08-17", 0.455], ["2021-08-17", 0.523], ["2021-08-17", 0.523], ["2021-08-17", 0.578], ["2021-08-17", 0.615], ["2021-08-18", 0.615], ["2021-08-18", 0.62], ["2021-11-01", 0.62], ["2021-11-05", 0.619], ["2021-11-05", 0.624], ["2021-11-16", 0.639], ["2021-11-16", 0.639], ["2021-11-17", 0.658], ["2021-11-17", 0.658], ["2021-11-17", 0.669], ["2021-11-17", 0.676], ["2021-11-18", 0.671], ["2021-11-18", 0.671], ["2021-11-19", 0.681], ["2021-11-19", 0.681], ["2021-12-07", 0.685], ["2021-12-07", 0.689], ["2021-12-26", 0.689], ["2022-01-05", 0.705], ["2022-01-12", 0.705], ["2022-01-19", 0.696], ["2022-02-14", 0.695], ["2022-02-14", 0.696], ["2022-02-14", 0.696], ["2022-02-14", 0.696], ["2022-02-19", 0.697], ["2022-02-24", 0.697], ["2022-02-24", 0.701], ["2022-02-26", 0.701], ["2022-02-27", 0.694], ["2022-03-02", 0.697], ["2022-03-08", 0.694], ["2022-03-08", 0.694], ["2022-04-03", 0.694], ["2022-04-03", 0.695], ["2022-04-03", 0.695], ["2022-04-06", 0.713], ["2022-05-06", 0.713], ["2022-05-27", 0.715], ["2022-06-12", 0.715], ["2022-06-12", 0.708], ["2022-06-12", 0.707], ["2022-06-13", 0.704], ["2022-06-14", 0.704], ["2022-06-21", 0.704], ["2022-06-22", 0.702], ["2022-06-22", 0.696], ["2022-06-22", 0.69], ["2022-06-23", 0.688], ["2022-06-23", 0.688], ["2022-06-23", 0.684], ["2022-07-15", 0.684], ["2022-08-07", 0.689], ["2022-08-10", 0.689], ["2022-09-12", 0.692], ["2022-09-13", 0.698], ["2022-09-13", 0.707], ["2022-09-15", 0.71], ["2022-10-03", 0.71], ["2022-10-03", 0.717], ["2022-10-03", 0.723], ["2022-10-04", 0.719], ["2022-10-04", 0.719], ["2022-10-05", 0.72], ["2022-10-13", 0.721], ["2022-10-13", 0.723]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7597/ | Trevor Milton is an American billionaire and the founder and former executive chairman of Nikola Corporation, a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.
In September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.
In July 2021, a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up, according to an indictment (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available here.
Milton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.
Under terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.
“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”
Milton is presumed innocent until proven guilty. | Security & Defense | This question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.
If no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively | true | 2024-01-01 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-08-02 | 2021-07-31 | ["https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fvariants%2Fvariant-info.html#anchor_1632158924994"] | binary | [["2021-08-03", 0.4], ["2021-08-03", 0.41], ["2021-08-03", 0.4], ["2021-08-04", 0.393], ["2021-08-04", 0.374], ["2021-08-04", 0.374], ["2021-08-05", 0.35], ["2021-08-05", 0.35], ["2021-08-08", 0.355], ["2021-08-08", 0.355], ["2021-08-08", 0.404], ["2021-08-09", 0.403], ["2021-08-09", 0.403], ["2021-08-09", 0.404], ["2021-08-10", 0.404], ["2021-08-11", 0.392], ["2021-08-12", 0.392], ["2021-08-12", 0.398], ["2021-08-12", 0.401], ["2021-08-13", 0.401], ["2021-08-13", 0.403], ["2021-08-14", 0.393], ["2021-08-17", 0.392], ["2021-08-17", 0.393], ["2021-08-17", 0.394], ["2021-08-18", 0.395], ["2021-08-18", 0.395], ["2021-08-19", 0.416], ["2021-08-20", 0.438], ["2021-08-20", 0.438], ["2021-08-22", 0.426], ["2021-08-22", 0.426], ["2021-08-24", 0.426], ["2021-08-30", 0.416], ["2021-08-30", 0.414], ["2021-08-30", 0.414], ["2021-08-31", 0.424], ["2021-08-31", 0.424], ["2021-09-01", 0.424], ["2021-09-08", 0.433], ["2021-09-09", 0.434], ["2021-09-09", 0.436], ["2021-09-09", 0.436], ["2021-09-09", 0.435], ["2021-09-09", 0.436], ["2021-09-09", 0.443], ["2021-09-09", 0.443], ["2021-09-10", 0.43], ["2021-09-10", 0.429], ["2021-09-10", 0.441], ["2021-09-14", 0.441], ["2021-09-14", 0.456], ["2021-09-14", 0.448], ["2021-09-15", 0.448], ["2021-09-15", 0.449], ["2021-09-15", 0.449], ["2021-09-16", 0.448], ["2021-09-18", 0.448], ["2021-09-19", 0.439], ["2021-09-20", 0.439], ["2021-09-22", 0.44], ["2021-09-27", 0.437], ["2021-09-27", 0.437], ["2021-09-27", 0.437], ["2021-09-30", 0.437], ["2021-09-30", 0.435], ["2021-09-30", 0.425], ["2021-10-01", 0.424], ["2021-10-05", 0.423], ["2021-10-05", 0.422], ["2021-10-07", 0.421], ["2021-10-10", 0.415], ["2021-10-11", 0.415], ["2021-10-11", 0.404], ["2021-10-11", 0.404], ["2021-10-11", 0.396], ["2021-10-11", 0.394], ["2021-10-11", 0.394], ["2021-10-11", 0.391], ["2021-10-11", 0.389], ["2021-10-11", 0.389], ["2021-10-14", 0.389], ["2021-10-14", 0.387], ["2021-10-20", 0.387], ["2021-10-23", 0.389], ["2021-10-24", 0.388], ["2021-10-29", 0.385], ["2021-10-29", 0.384], ["2021-10-29", 0.375], ["2021-10-30", 0.375], ["2021-10-30", 0.374], ["2021-10-31", 0.373], ["2021-10-31", 0.37], ["2021-10-31", 0.37], ["2021-10-31", 0.368], ["2021-11-01", 0.368], ["2021-11-01", 0.364], ["2021-11-01", 0.361], ["2021-11-01", 0.359], ["2021-11-01", 0.352], ["2021-11-01", 0.352]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7603/ | Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020. The Delta variant, for instance, is thought to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness.
The US CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants: variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.
Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are six VOIs: B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.525, B.1.526, B.1.617.1, and B.1.617.3.
Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are four VOCs: B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma).
Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant that has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are no VOHCs.
A VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:
Demonstrated failure of diagnostics
Evidence to suggest a significantly reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease
Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics
More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve positively if a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page before 1 August 2022 | true | 2021-11-01 | Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-08-05 | 2021-07-31 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-03", 0.2], ["2021-08-03", 0.2], ["2021-08-03", 0.173], ["2021-08-03", 0.268], ["2021-08-03", 0.368], ["2021-08-04", 0.444], ["2021-08-04", 0.387]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7629/ | As of 31 July, two states in the U.S. — California and New York — have announced vaccine mandates for their state workforces. Only 26 July California announced it is requiring all state workers to “show proof of vaccination or be tested regularly” and on 28 July New York announced it is requiring all state workers to “get vaccinated, and those who do not will be required to be tested for COVID-19 on a weekly basis.”. | Politics & Governance | This will resolve on the basis of whether an announcement is made by Virginia’s state government before 1 October that all Virginian state workers will need to be vaccinated or alternatively get tested for COVID-19 on a regular basis | true | 2021-08-17 | Will Virginia announce a vaccine mandate for its state workforce before 1 October 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-10-01 | 2021-08-01 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-03", 0.175], ["2021-08-03", 0.173], ["2021-08-03", 0.143], ["2021-08-03", 0.143], ["2021-08-03", 0.208], ["2021-08-03", 0.208], ["2021-08-03", 0.202], ["2021-08-04", 0.201], ["2021-08-04", 0.249], ["2021-08-05", 0.236], ["2021-08-05", 0.232], ["2021-08-05", 0.234], ["2021-08-05", 0.234], ["2021-08-06", 0.223], ["2021-08-07", 0.238], ["2021-08-07", 0.238], ["2021-08-08", 0.235], ["2021-08-08", 0.236], ["2021-08-08", 0.236], ["2021-08-08", 0.274], ["2021-08-08", 0.272], ["2021-08-09", 0.281], ["2021-08-09", 0.279], ["2021-08-09", 0.279], ["2021-08-09", 0.282], ["2021-08-09", 0.282], ["2021-08-10", 0.289], ["2021-08-10", 0.293], ["2021-08-10", 0.293], ["2021-08-10", 0.295], ["2021-08-10", 0.301], ["2021-08-10", 0.299], ["2021-08-11", 0.295], ["2021-08-11", 0.297], ["2021-08-11", 0.297], ["2021-08-11", 0.297], ["2021-08-11", 0.298], ["2021-08-12", 0.296], ["2021-08-12", 0.315], ["2021-08-12", 0.319], ["2021-08-12", 0.319], ["2021-08-12", 0.322], ["2021-08-12", 0.322], ["2021-08-13", 0.322], ["2021-08-13", 0.327], ["2021-08-13", 0.327], ["2021-08-13", 0.323], ["2021-08-13", 0.331], ["2021-08-13", 0.332], ["2021-08-13", 0.332], ["2021-08-13", 0.349], ["2021-08-13", 0.349], ["2021-08-13", 0.35], ["2021-08-13", 0.349], ["2021-08-13", 0.353], ["2021-08-14", 0.353], ["2021-08-14", 0.359], ["2021-08-14", 0.359], ["2021-08-14", 0.364], ["2021-08-14", 0.361], ["2021-08-14", 0.361], ["2021-08-14", 0.358], ["2021-08-14", 0.345], ["2021-08-15", 0.345], ["2021-08-15", 0.347], ["2021-08-15", 0.347], ["2021-08-15", 0.348], ["2021-08-15", 0.349], ["2021-08-15", 0.352], ["2021-08-15", 0.352], ["2021-08-16", 0.356], ["2021-08-16", 0.357], ["2021-08-16", 0.357], ["2021-08-16", 0.354], ["2021-08-16", 0.354], ["2021-08-16", 0.355], ["2021-08-16", 0.357], ["2021-08-16", 0.357], ["2021-08-16", 0.363], ["2021-08-16", 0.363], ["2021-08-16", 0.374], ["2021-08-16", 0.376], ["2021-08-16", 0.381], ["2021-08-16", 0.381], ["2021-08-16", 0.372], ["2021-08-16", 0.373], ["2021-08-16", 0.369], ["2021-08-17", 0.368], ["2021-08-17", 0.369], ["2021-08-17", 0.37], ["2021-08-17", 0.371], ["2021-08-17", 0.371], ["2021-08-17", 0.373], ["2021-08-17", 0.373], ["2021-08-17", 0.373], ["2021-08-17", 0.373]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7635/ | The State of Emergency that Virginian Governor Northam declared on 12 March 2020 in response to COVID-19 expired on 30 June 2021. As such, as of 1 July 2021 “all Executive Orders imposing COVID-19 restrictions are either expired or terminated.”.
According to a Washington Post article, Governor Northam’s spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky has said the governor lifted the state of emergency given high vaccination rates and that as such “COVID-19 is no longer an immediate emergency in our commonwealth.”
However, since then COVID-19 cases have risen quickly as part of a new Delta-driven wave, though the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is more subdued. | Politics & Governance | This will resolve positive if the governor of Virginia announces a new State of Emergency in response to COVID-19 before 1 October 2021 | true | 2021-08-17 | Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-08-12 | 2021-08-01 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-03", 0.37], ["2021-08-03", 0.603], ["2021-08-03", 0.602], ["2021-08-03", 0.512], ["2021-08-03", 0.557], ["2021-08-03", 0.557], ["2021-08-03", 0.536], ["2021-08-05", 0.542], ["2021-08-05", 0.561], ["2021-08-05", 0.57], ["2021-08-05", 0.57], ["2021-08-05", 0.575], ["2021-08-05", 0.602], ["2021-08-06", 0.602], ["2021-08-06", 0.575], ["2021-08-06", 0.583], ["2021-08-06", 0.594], ["2021-08-06", 0.641], ["2021-08-07", 0.641], ["2021-08-07", 0.657], ["2021-08-07", 0.657], ["2021-08-08", 0.657], ["2021-08-08", 0.665], ["2021-08-08", 0.639], ["2021-08-08", 0.639], ["2021-08-08", 0.638], ["2021-08-08", 0.652], ["2021-08-08", 0.652], ["2021-08-08", 0.658], ["2021-08-08", 0.654], ["2021-08-08", 0.655], ["2021-08-08", 0.633], ["2021-08-08", 0.636], ["2021-08-08", 0.636], ["2021-08-08", 0.64], ["2021-08-08", 0.638], ["2021-08-08", 0.641], ["2021-08-08", 0.638], ["2021-08-09", 0.636], ["2021-08-09", 0.638], ["2021-08-09", 0.638], ["2021-08-09", 0.635], ["2021-08-09", 0.634], ["2021-08-09", 0.632], ["2021-08-09", 0.631], ["2021-08-09", 0.629], ["2021-08-09", 0.629], ["2021-08-10", 0.625], ["2021-08-10", 0.626], ["2021-08-10", 0.626], ["2021-08-10", 0.625], ["2021-08-10", 0.63], ["2021-08-10", 0.629], ["2021-08-11", 0.629], ["2021-08-11", 0.629], ["2021-08-12", 0.619], ["2021-08-12", 0.62], ["2021-08-12", 0.62], ["2021-08-12", 0.618], ["2021-08-12", 0.618], ["2021-08-12", 0.617], ["2021-08-12", 0.612], ["2021-08-12", 0.612]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7636/ | The statewide indoor mask mandate for all schools in Virginia expired on 25 July 2021. This Public Health Order by the State Health Commissioner applied to all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools.
Schools in Virginia currently have the “ability to implement local mask policies based on community level conditions and public health recommendations,” though Virginia guidance still “strongly recommends” indoor masking requirements at schools. | Politics & Governance | This will resolve positive if Virginia’s State Health Commissioner announces a new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions before 1 October 2021. An indoor mask mandate for all Virginian schools may also be announced as part of a State of Emergency declared by the governor of Virginia for this to resolve positive. Such a mandate should apply to at least all students five and older at all public and private prek-12 schools. Exceptions similar to those of the last order — namely, allowances for eating/drinking — can be made.
8 August clarification: A new indoor mask mandate for all Virginian school divisions may also be announced by the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) for this to resolve positive. Moreover, a new statewide indoor school mask mandate can exempt vaccinated individuals for this to resolve positive. | true | 2021-08-17 | Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-12-15 | 2021-08-03 | ["https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpr\u2026)."] | binary | [["2021-08-08", 0.6], ["2021-08-08", 0.4], ["2021-08-08", 0.4], ["2021-08-08", 0.49], ["2021-08-08", 0.49], ["2021-08-09", 0.492], ["2021-08-09", 0.492], ["2021-08-09", 0.507], ["2021-08-09", 0.507], ["2021-08-09", 0.539], ["2021-08-09", 0.557], ["2021-08-09", 0.552], ["2021-08-10", 0.551], ["2021-08-11", 0.551], ["2021-08-12", 0.558], ["2021-08-12", 0.562], ["2021-08-12", 0.562], ["2021-08-13", 0.56], ["2021-08-16", 0.555], ["2021-08-18", 0.552], ["2021-08-27", 0.547], ["2021-09-04", 0.547], ["2021-09-17", 0.558], ["2021-09-17", 0.565], ["2021-09-19", 0.565], ["2021-09-21", 0.573], ["2021-10-03", 0.581], ["2021-10-05", 0.581], ["2021-10-05", 0.583], ["2021-10-11", 0.579], ["2021-10-13", 0.581], ["2021-10-20", 0.582], ["2021-10-23", 0.581], ["2021-10-27", 0.581], ["2021-10-28", 0.574], ["2021-10-28", 0.571], ["2021-10-31", 0.578], ["2021-11-02", 0.576], ["2021-11-04", 0.575], ["2021-11-12", 0.575], ["2021-11-15", 0.567], ["2021-12-07", 0.584], ["2021-12-11", 0.587], ["2021-12-12", 0.588], ["2021-12-13", 0.59]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7641/ | Brexit and COVID-19 are increasing fiscal and commercial operating costs, including labour, goods, energy and transport. When combined with the UK Government's increased cost of servicing fiscal debt and the rising likelihood of interest rate increases, there is an increasing market expectation of rising UK inflation with CPIH standing at 2.4% as at June 2021, up 1.6 percentage points from 0.8% in December 2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpr…). | Economics & Business | The UK Office for National Statistics will report December 2021's value for UK CPIH by February 2022. If this value (or any prior values in 2021) is more than 4% then the question will resolve YES, otherwise the question will resolve NO.
Fine Print
The measure of inflation used is CPIH as defined, measured and recorded by the UK Office for National Statistics. | true | 2022-02-28 | Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-08-10 | 2021-08-03 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-03", 0.575], ["2021-08-03", 0.348], ["2021-08-03", 0.357], ["2021-08-03", 0.277], ["2021-08-03", 0.253], ["2021-08-03", 0.264], ["2021-08-03", 0.264], ["2021-08-04", 0.255], ["2021-08-04", 0.247], ["2021-08-04", 0.272], ["2021-08-04", 0.27], ["2021-08-04", 0.273], ["2021-08-04", 0.271], ["2021-08-04", 0.263], ["2021-08-04", 0.256], ["2021-08-04", 0.256], ["2021-08-04", 0.253], ["2021-08-04", 0.266], ["2021-08-04", 0.268], ["2021-08-04", 0.277], ["2021-08-04", 0.274], ["2021-08-04", 0.279], ["2021-08-04", 0.283], ["2021-08-04", 0.282], ["2021-08-04", 0.284], ["2021-08-04", 0.287], ["2021-08-04", 0.287], ["2021-08-04", 0.288], ["2021-08-05", 0.286], ["2021-08-05", 0.286], ["2021-08-05", 0.291], ["2021-08-05", 0.293], ["2021-08-05", 0.295], ["2021-08-05", 0.294], ["2021-08-05", 0.294], ["2021-08-05", 0.292], ["2021-08-05", 0.292], ["2021-08-05", 0.29], ["2021-08-05", 0.288], ["2021-08-05", 0.289], ["2021-08-05", 0.289], ["2021-08-05", 0.289], ["2021-08-05", 0.288], ["2021-08-05", 0.288], ["2021-08-05", 0.287], ["2021-08-05", 0.294], ["2021-08-06", 0.293], ["2021-08-06", 0.295], ["2021-08-06", 0.294], ["2021-08-06", 0.293], ["2021-08-06", 0.292], ["2021-08-06", 0.295], ["2021-08-06", 0.295], ["2021-08-06", 0.295], ["2021-08-06", 0.297], ["2021-08-06", 0.299], ["2021-08-06", 0.299], ["2021-08-06", 0.299], ["2021-08-06", 0.303], ["2021-08-07", 0.303], ["2021-08-07", 0.3], ["2021-08-07", 0.3], ["2021-08-07", 0.299], ["2021-08-07", 0.299], ["2021-08-07", 0.301], ["2021-08-07", 0.301], ["2021-08-08", 0.299], ["2021-08-08", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.301], ["2021-08-08", 0.3], ["2021-08-08", 0.298], ["2021-08-08", 0.297], ["2021-08-08", 0.296], ["2021-08-08", 0.295], ["2021-08-09", 0.295], ["2021-08-09", 0.296], ["2021-08-09", 0.296], ["2021-08-09", 0.296], ["2021-08-09", 0.294], ["2021-08-09", 0.294], ["2021-08-09", 0.293], ["2021-08-09", 0.294], ["2021-08-09", 0.294], ["2021-08-09", 0.292], ["2021-08-09", 0.294], ["2021-08-09", 0.294], ["2021-08-09", 0.295], ["2021-08-09", 0.295], ["2021-08-09", 0.295], ["2021-08-10", 0.295], ["2021-08-10", 0.296], ["2021-08-10", 0.296], ["2021-08-10", 0.302], ["2021-08-10", 0.301], ["2021-08-10", 0.301], ["2021-08-10", 0.297], ["2021-08-10", 0.278]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7643/ | Governor Andrew Cuomo has been dogged by multiple sexual harassment allegations bv multiple women since December 2020.
An independent investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James was announced on 28 February 2021. It concluded on 3 August 2021 and found the following:
We...conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment.
Following the release of the report, multiple prominent Democrats called on Cuomo to resign, but at a press conference on 3 August Cuomo appeared to decline to resign. Cuomo is also the subject of a New York state assembly impeachment inquiry. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on 31 December 2021 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.
Also see this previous question by user johnnycaffeine. | true | 2021-09-01 | Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-11-16 | 2021-08-03 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-08", 0.15], ["2021-08-08", 0.15], ["2021-08-08", 0.397], ["2021-08-08", 0.505], ["2021-08-08", 0.505], ["2021-08-09", 0.6], ["2021-08-09", 0.6], ["2021-08-09", 0.534], ["2021-08-09", 0.534], ["2021-08-09", 0.485], ["2021-08-09", 0.446], ["2021-08-10", 0.446], ["2021-08-12", 0.442], ["2021-08-12", 0.412], ["2021-08-12", 0.413], ["2021-08-13", 0.414], ["2021-08-13", 0.408], ["2021-08-14", 0.408], ["2021-08-23", 0.409], ["2021-08-25", 0.405], ["2021-08-31", 0.418], ["2021-09-01", 0.416], ["2021-09-09", 0.416], ["2021-09-09", 0.415], ["2021-09-21", 0.414], ["2021-10-07", 0.413], ["2021-10-30", 0.414], ["2021-11-15", 0.443], ["2021-11-15", 0.445], ["2021-11-15", 0.49], ["2021-11-15", 0.49], ["2021-11-15", 0.507], ["2021-11-15", 0.509], ["2021-11-15", 0.509], ["2021-11-16", 0.514], ["2021-11-16", 0.519]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7644/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser "dazzling," and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons. Space Threat Assessment 2021
Some of these ASAT weapons may produce orbital debris or "space junk" that remains in orbit for prolonged periods of time. This is a major concern as the amount of objects in Earth's orbit and the complexity of space traffic management increase. Union of Concerned Scientists Space Debris Fact Sheet
For example, a January 2007 kinetic ASAT test conducted by China on a non-operational weather satellite created over 3,000 pieces of space debris. 2007 Chinese Anti-Satellite Test Fact Sheet, Secure World Foundation India's 2019 Mission Shakti is another example. See, e.g. "NASA Says Debris From India’s Antisatellite Test Puts Space Station at Risk".
As both the militarization and the commercialization of space continue, the effects of space debris-producing ASAT tests have become a source of concern for the international community.
This question asks whether an ASAT test by any state actor will create more than one piece of space debris between the launch of this question and the question closing date, as reported by credible news sources or research institutes.
Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between the launch of this question and January 1, 2023?
This question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP, NYT, etc.) or a credible non-profit organization or research center (e.g. Center for Strategic International Studies, Aerospace Corporation) concludes that an ASAT test conducted by a state actor resulted in more than one piece of space debris between 2021-08-06 and 2023-01-01.
Both the 2007 Chinese ASAT test and the 2019 Indian ASAT test would have resolved positively. See China ASAT NYT article and India ASAT NYT article | true | 2023-01-01 | Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-08-12 | 2021-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-12", 0.99], ["2021-08-12", 0.99], ["2021-08-12", 0.92], ["2021-08-12", 0.902], ["2021-08-12", 0.938], ["2021-08-12", 0.91], ["2021-08-12", 0.91], ["2021-08-12", 0.94], ["2021-08-12", 0.948], ["2021-08-12", 0.948], ["2021-08-12", 0.951], ["2021-08-12", 0.951], ["2021-08-12", 0.956], ["2021-08-12", 0.96], ["2021-08-12", 0.96]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7663/ | Since the withdrawal of nearly all American military forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban has re-emerged in force and the war in Afghanistan has entered "a new, deadlier, and more destructive phase." In June and July, the Taliban seized large rural areas of the country, and from there began to threaten larger cities. Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, was the first to fall on August 6th, followed on August 7th by Jowzjan's capital, Sheberghan. As of that date, there was heavy fighting in Helmand's capital Laskargah and in Herat city, all of which, like Kandahar, were effectively besieged. The United States and Britain have both urged any remaining citizens to leave immediately in the face of Taliban atrocities and the deteriorating security situation.
According to the Long War Journal,
The Taliban offensive is tying up key Afghan military assets, including its air force, Commandos and Special Forces. These military assets have proven to be most effective at keeping the Taliban from seizing cities. These units are being ground down by continual fighting. By attacking multiple cities at the same time, the Taliban is forcing the Afghan military to disperse its forces and water down its combat power. | Security & Defense | (= 13:26 GMT on April 1st, 2022)
Fine Print
Resolves positive if at any point before the resolution time, the Taliban and/or Taliban-allied armed groups physically occupy and hold both the Kandahar Governor's Office and the adjacent Shrine of the Cloak in downtown Kandahar. Administrators will determine this by credible media reports that these locations are occupied, or that downtown Kandahar or Kandahar city in general are occupied.
Resolves negative if the resolution time is reached without such occurrence. Resolution may be delayed in the unlikely event that there is fighting ongoing in the immediate area of the office and the shrine at resolution time, or even ambiguous if these locations pass into Taliban occupation around resolution time but the exact chronology cannot be worked out. | true | 2022-01-31 | Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-08-22 | 2021-08-11 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-13", 0.33], ["2021-08-13", 0.365], ["2021-08-13", 0.41], ["2021-08-13", 0.41], ["2021-08-13", 0.458], ["2021-08-13", 0.426], ["2021-08-13", 0.469], ["2021-08-13", 0.469], ["2021-08-13", 0.482], ["2021-08-13", 0.435], ["2021-08-13", 0.439], ["2021-08-14", 0.439], ["2021-08-14", 0.426], ["2021-08-14", 0.426], ["2021-08-14", 0.458], ["2021-08-14", 0.466], ["2021-08-14", 0.468], ["2021-08-14", 0.471], ["2021-08-14", 0.471], ["2021-08-14", 0.479], ["2021-08-15", 0.479], ["2021-08-15", 0.455], ["2021-08-15", 0.457], ["2021-08-15", 0.457], ["2021-08-15", 0.457], ["2021-08-15", 0.456], ["2021-08-15", 0.46], ["2021-08-15", 0.475], ["2021-08-15", 0.475], ["2021-08-16", 0.471], ["2021-08-16", 0.471], ["2021-08-17", 0.47], ["2021-08-17", 0.469], ["2021-08-17", 0.469], ["2021-08-18", 0.469], ["2021-08-21", 0.475], ["2021-08-21", 0.475], ["2021-08-22", 0.49], ["2021-08-22", 0.495], ["2021-08-22", 0.512], ["2021-08-22", 0.512], ["2021-08-22", 0.524], ["2021-08-22", 0.524], ["2021-08-22", 0.528], ["2021-08-22", 0.552], ["2021-08-22", 0.542], ["2021-08-22", 0.562], ["2021-08-22", 0.561]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7688/ | From Statnews,
Aubrey de Grey, the jet-setting gerontologist who co-founded the SENS Research Foundation to discover ways to reverse the ravages of aging, has been placed on leave by the foundation after being accused of sexual harassment by two prominent entrepreneurs in the field of healthy life span extension.
On Tuesday night, Laura Deming, the 27-year-old founder of the Longevity Fund, and Celine Halioua, the 26-year-old founder and CEO of Loyal, a biotech startup developing drugs to help dogs live longer, posted accounts on their blogs and to Twitter of experiences they had with de Grey as young scientists trying to gain a foothold in the field.
De Grey denied the allegations in a post on Facebook, and SENS issued a statement saying he had been placed on leave pending the outcome of an investigation. | Education & Research | This question resolves positively if some official statement is made by the SENS Research Foundation indicating that Aubrey de Grey is terminated, or if Aubrey de Grey voluntarily resigns from the SENS Research Foundation. If neither happen by January 1st 2022, then this question resolves negatively.
For the purpose of this question, Aubrey de Grey is said to be "terminated" if the staff of SENS indicate that they are separating indefinitely from him. If he merely leaves for a short period of time, with the intention to return, this question should not resolve positively | true | 2021-11-15 | Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-08-11 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-15", 0.15], ["2021-08-15", 0.155], ["2021-08-15", 0.187], ["2021-08-15", 0.187], ["2021-08-16", 0.157], ["2021-08-16", 0.122], ["2021-08-16", 0.12], ["2021-08-17", 0.12], ["2021-08-17", 0.17], ["2021-08-17", 0.172], ["2021-08-17", 0.22], ["2021-08-17", 0.217], ["2021-08-18", 0.223], ["2021-08-18", 0.223], ["2021-08-18", 0.201], ["2021-08-18", 0.207], ["2021-08-21", 0.201], ["2021-08-31", 0.206], ["2021-09-05", 0.207], ["2021-09-06", 0.208], ["2021-09-20", 0.195], ["2021-09-20", 0.195], ["2021-09-27", 0.194], ["2021-10-07", 0.2], ["2021-10-07", 0.199], ["2021-10-30", 0.188], ["2021-11-26", 0.188], ["2021-11-29", 0.189], ["2021-11-29", 0.189], ["2021-12-06", 0.189], ["2021-12-08", 0.195], ["2021-12-10", 0.19], ["2021-12-12", 0.19], ["2021-12-13", 0.178], ["2021-12-13", 0.173], ["2021-12-13", 0.168], ["2021-12-13", 0.166], ["2021-12-15", 0.166], ["2021-12-19", 0.157], ["2021-12-20", 0.156], ["2021-12-23", 0.156], ["2021-12-26", 0.153], ["2022-01-01", 0.153], ["2022-01-01", 0.149], ["2022-01-01", 0.144], ["2022-01-01", 0.14], ["2022-01-01", 0.138], ["2022-01-01", 0.136], ["2022-01-02", 0.136], ["2022-01-02", 0.133], ["2022-01-02", 0.129], ["2022-01-02", 0.127], ["2022-01-03", 0.125], ["2022-01-04", 0.133], ["2022-01-05", 0.133], ["2022-01-07", 0.137], ["2022-01-08", 0.133], ["2022-01-08", 0.132], ["2022-01-10", 0.131], ["2022-01-11", 0.132], ["2022-01-12", 0.133], ["2022-01-12", 0.133], ["2022-01-12", 0.139], ["2022-01-14", 0.139], ["2022-01-15", 0.132], ["2022-01-15", 0.129], ["2022-01-15", 0.126], ["2022-01-15", 0.126], ["2022-01-16", 0.126], ["2022-01-16", 0.126], ["2022-01-18", 0.13], ["2022-01-19", 0.129], ["2022-01-20", 0.128], ["2022-01-20", 0.129], ["2022-01-21", 0.129], ["2022-01-22", 0.127], ["2022-01-22", 0.127], ["2022-01-23", 0.127], ["2022-01-24", 0.125], ["2022-01-24", 0.12], ["2022-01-24", 0.12], ["2022-01-24", 0.118], ["2022-01-24", 0.118], ["2022-01-25", 0.116], ["2022-01-25", 0.116], ["2022-01-25", 0.115], ["2022-01-26", 0.115], ["2022-01-26", 0.115], ["2022-01-26", 0.114], ["2022-01-26", 0.112], ["2022-01-26", 0.112], ["2022-01-26", 0.112], ["2022-01-26", 0.112], ["2022-01-26", 0.112], ["2022-01-26", 0.111], ["2022-01-26", 0.111], ["2022-01-26", 0.111], ["2022-01-26", 0.11], ["2022-01-26", 0.11], ["2022-01-26", 0.11], ["2022-01-26", 0.11]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7722/ | Several U.S. allies participate in nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a special position in the nuclear world; they are classified as "non-nuclear" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.
The Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe.
The United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, "Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom."
This attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly "non-nuclear" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that 66% percent of respondents said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons.
Public opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the TPNW entered into force in January 2021. It is "the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation" (source)
In the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election.
Signature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no "teeth," as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.
This question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve if any NATO member state hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of a "nuclear sharing" agreement as of 11 August 2021 signs on to the TPNW before the end of 2022 | true | 2022-01-27 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-08-17 | 2021-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-15", 0.5], ["2021-08-15", 0.4], ["2021-08-15", 0.7], ["2021-08-15", 0.665], ["2021-08-15", 0.645], ["2021-08-15", 0.64], ["2021-08-15", 0.65], ["2021-08-15", 0.675], ["2021-08-15", 0.672], ["2021-08-15", 0.672], ["2021-08-15", 0.587], ["2021-08-15", 0.643], ["2021-08-15", 0.668], ["2021-08-15", 0.668], ["2021-08-15", 0.667], ["2021-08-15", 0.636], ["2021-08-15", 0.639], ["2021-08-15", 0.61], ["2021-08-15", 0.604], ["2021-08-15", 0.591], ["2021-08-15", 0.578], ["2021-08-15", 0.578], ["2021-08-15", 0.545], ["2021-08-15", 0.507], ["2021-08-15", 0.504], ["2021-08-15", 0.491], ["2021-08-15", 0.491], ["2021-08-15", 0.477], ["2021-08-15", 0.465], ["2021-08-15", 0.45], ["2021-08-15", 0.451], ["2021-08-15", 0.422], ["2021-08-16", 0.423], ["2021-08-16", 0.417], ["2021-08-16", 0.41], ["2021-08-16", 0.406], ["2021-08-16", 0.399], ["2021-08-16", 0.396], ["2021-08-16", 0.414], ["2021-08-16", 0.401], ["2021-08-16", 0.401], ["2021-08-16", 0.404], ["2021-08-16", 0.404], ["2021-08-16", 0.428], ["2021-08-17", 0.428], ["2021-08-17", 0.42]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7734/ | From the Israel National News on April 4th, 2021,
The man who has been known as the last Jew in Afghanistan for well over a decade is leaving for Israel, fearing that the U.S. military’s promise to leave the country will leave a vacuum to be filled with radical groups such as the Taliban.
“I will watch on TV in Israel to find out what will happen in Afghanistan,” Zabulon Simantov told Arab News on Sunday.
Simantov, 61, said he will leave after this year’s High Holidays season in the fall.
His wife, a Jew from Tajikistan, and their two daughters have lived in Israel since 1998. But Simantov has stayed in his native Afghanistan to tend to its lone synagogue, located in the capital Kabul, through decades of violence and political turmoil, including a period of Taliban rule and the country’s war with the U.S. | Security & Defense | Suppose before January 1st, 2023, the Taliban is widely reported to have captured Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, and in particular, the presidential palace. Then, this question resolves positively if Zablon Simintov is reported to be residing in some nation other than Afghanistan. If Simintov is reported to have been en route to another country when the presidential palace is captured, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it reports negatively.
In the event that the Metaculus admins do not know the whereabouts of Zablon Simintov at the time of Kabul's capture, then the resolution will be pending until this information is known. If the Taliban does not capture Kabul before January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.
Fine Print
[edit 2021-08-15] Sylvain added the phrase "If Simintov is reported to have been en route to another country when the presidential palace is captured, then this question resolves positively. " | true | 2021-10-01 | Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-09-19 | 2021-08-14 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-14", 0.5], ["2021-08-14", 0.45], ["2021-08-14", 0.252], ["2021-08-15", 0.25], ["2021-08-15", 0.25], ["2021-08-15", 0.227], ["2021-08-15", 0.221], ["2021-08-15", 0.214], ["2021-08-15", 0.218], ["2021-08-15", 0.217], ["2021-08-15", 0.217], ["2021-08-16", 0.223], ["2021-08-16", 0.218], ["2021-08-16", 0.211], ["2021-08-16", 0.208], ["2021-08-16", 0.213], ["2021-08-16", 0.21], ["2021-08-16", 0.205], ["2021-08-16", 0.197], ["2021-08-16", 0.193], ["2021-08-17", 0.189], ["2021-08-17", 0.188], ["2021-08-17", 0.187], ["2021-08-17", 0.185], ["2021-08-17", 0.184], ["2021-08-17", 0.177], ["2021-08-17", 0.178], ["2021-08-17", 0.179], ["2021-08-18", 0.168], ["2021-08-18", 0.164], ["2021-08-18", 0.164], ["2021-08-18", 0.161], ["2021-08-18", 0.154], ["2021-08-18", 0.153], ["2021-08-18", 0.144], ["2021-08-18", 0.14], ["2021-08-18", 0.137], ["2021-08-19", 0.137], ["2021-08-19", 0.137], ["2021-08-19", 0.135], ["2021-08-19", 0.134], ["2021-08-19", 0.134], ["2021-08-20", 0.133], ["2021-08-20", 0.131], ["2021-08-20", 0.131], ["2021-08-20", 0.13], ["2021-08-22", 0.129], ["2021-08-23", 0.127], ["2021-08-23", 0.127], ["2021-08-23", 0.127], ["2021-08-23", 0.127], ["2021-08-23", 0.125], ["2021-08-23", 0.127], ["2021-08-24", 0.128], ["2021-08-24", 0.13], ["2021-08-24", 0.134], ["2021-08-24", 0.13], ["2021-08-24", 0.131], ["2021-08-24", 0.131], ["2021-08-24", 0.131], ["2021-08-24", 0.133], ["2021-08-25", 0.134], ["2021-08-25", 0.133], ["2021-08-25", 0.132], ["2021-08-25", 0.131], ["2021-08-25", 0.132], ["2021-08-25", 0.131], ["2021-08-25", 0.131], ["2021-08-26", 0.131], ["2021-08-26", 0.129], ["2021-08-26", 0.133], ["2021-08-26", 0.133], ["2021-08-26", 0.133], ["2021-08-26", 0.146], ["2021-08-26", 0.16], ["2021-08-26", 0.174], ["2021-08-27", 0.169], ["2021-08-27", 0.171], ["2021-08-27", 0.172], ["2021-08-27", 0.17], ["2021-08-27", 0.168], ["2021-08-27", 0.167], ["2021-08-27", 0.17], ["2021-08-27", 0.168], ["2021-08-28", 0.168], ["2021-08-28", 0.168], ["2021-08-28", 0.164], ["2021-08-28", 0.163], ["2021-08-28", 0.162], ["2021-08-28", 0.161], ["2021-08-28", 0.159], ["2021-08-28", 0.158], ["2021-08-29", 0.156], ["2021-08-29", 0.148], ["2021-08-29", 0.145], ["2021-08-29", 0.139], ["2021-08-29", 0.136], ["2021-08-29", 0.133], ["2021-08-29", 0.133], ["2021-08-30", 0.131], ["2021-08-30", 0.131]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7737/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | As of 2021-08-13, several nations are evacuating their diplomats from Kabul, Afghanistan, as Taliban forces take control of territory. There is precedent for less-than-successful evacuation of US diplomatic staff from dangerous environments.
Will the US diplomatic evacuation in Kabul be unsuccessful?
Resolves positively if there are credible, mainstream reports of at least 2 US diplomatic staff captured, killed or left behind within 1 week of official announcement that the US has ceased efforts to evacuate diplomatic staff from Kabul. The ceased effort must be part of an overall withdrawal, so an evacuation ceased because the US changes course and decides maintain a diplomatic presence would resolve ambiguous.
For the purposes of the resolution, Marine security guards count as diplomatic staff. All other US citizens not credibly affiliated with diplomatic efforts, including regular military personnel, do not count. Non-US citizens such as Afghani translators likewise do not count, regardless of degree of involvement with US.
Resolves ambiguous if evacuation is credibly still underway or inapplicable at resolve date. | true | 2021-08-30 | Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-09-05 | 2021-08-18 | [] | binary | [["2021-08-21", 0.66], ["2021-08-21", 0.68], ["2021-08-21", 0.607], ["2021-08-21", 0.607], ["2021-08-21", 0.658], ["2021-08-21", 0.587], ["2021-08-21", 0.595], ["2021-08-21", 0.595], ["2021-08-21", 0.618], ["2021-08-21", 0.556], ["2021-08-21", 0.549], ["2021-08-22", 0.574], ["2021-08-22", 0.58], ["2021-08-22", 0.575], ["2021-08-23", 0.589], ["2021-08-24", 0.589], ["2021-08-25", 0.592], ["2021-08-25", 0.611], ["2021-08-25", 0.611], ["2021-08-25", 0.617], ["2021-08-25", 0.617], ["2021-08-25", 0.623], ["2021-08-25", 0.623], ["2021-08-26", 0.618], ["2021-08-26", 0.616], ["2021-08-26", 0.612], ["2021-08-26", 0.616], ["2021-08-26", 0.607], ["2021-08-26", 0.604], ["2021-08-26", 0.594], ["2021-08-26", 0.594], ["2021-08-26", 0.589], ["2021-08-27", 0.589], ["2021-08-27", 0.585], ["2021-08-27", 0.585], ["2021-08-27", 0.571], ["2021-08-27", 0.565], ["2021-08-27", 0.561], ["2021-08-27", 0.565], ["2021-08-28", 0.565], ["2021-08-28", 0.559], ["2021-08-28", 0.557], ["2021-08-28", 0.557], ["2021-08-28", 0.555], ["2021-08-31", 0.546], ["2021-08-31", 0.545], ["2021-09-05", 0.556], ["2021-09-05", 0.567], ["2021-09-05", 0.569], ["2021-09-05", 0.569], ["2021-09-05", 0.587], ["2021-09-05", 0.597], ["2021-09-05", 0.599], ["2021-09-05", 0.599], ["2021-09-05", 0.599], ["2021-09-05", 0.632], ["2021-09-05", 0.633], ["2021-09-05", 0.633], ["2021-09-05", 0.642], ["2021-09-05", 0.645], ["2021-09-05", 0.655], ["2021-09-05", 0.655], ["2021-09-05", 0.681], ["2021-09-05", 0.689], ["2021-09-05", 0.698], ["2021-09-05", 0.698], ["2021-09-05", 0.706], ["2021-09-05", 0.722], ["2021-09-05", 0.729], ["2021-09-05", 0.739], ["2021-09-05", 0.741], ["2021-09-05", 0.741], ["2021-09-05", 0.748], ["2021-09-05", 0.775], ["2021-09-05", 0.775], ["2021-09-05", 0.794], ["2021-09-05", 0.802]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7774/ | Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. (about the order, Reddit thread with updates).
The hearing has been postponed multiple times and will be now be held on August, 23rd. (source) | Education & Research | If new papers will be reported or shown to be uploaded again in the Sci-Hub database before the end of the year, this question will resolve positively.
New papers being uploaded to a fork or copied version of SciHub is not sufficient for positive resolution | true | 2021-12-31 | Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-10-01 | 2021-08-23 | ["https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1576045399697084416?", "https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1576045399697084416?t=3cxilbtu2Ga15yYBig9wjQ&s=19", "https://twitter.com/teslaownersSV/status/1576022300910006272", "https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/30/23374542/tesla-ai-day-how-to-watch-optimus-robot-dojo-elon-musk", "https://twitter.com/Crypto_POON/status/1576022099663421440", "https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1575714845114085377", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1575021541103874048", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1575499184764899328", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1575377995371454464", "https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/elon-musk-faces-skeptics-tesla-gets-ready-unveil-optimus-robot-2022-09-20/", "https://twitter.com/rschmied/status/1532526389580115968?t=hDKyOlZoQpUgyHp51AOMOA&s=19"] | binary | [["2021-10-03", 0.1], ["2021-10-05", 0.262], ["2021-10-07", 0.26], ["2021-10-12", 0.246], ["2021-10-15", 0.276], ["2021-10-22", 0.269], ["2021-10-23", 0.263], ["2021-10-28", 0.262], ["2021-11-12", 0.255], ["2021-11-17", 0.245], ["2021-12-07", 0.242], ["2021-12-14", 0.244], ["2021-12-15", 0.238], ["2021-12-26", 0.237], ["2022-01-01", 0.237], ["2022-01-03", 0.228], ["2022-01-06", 0.23], ["2022-01-08", 0.242], ["2022-01-12", 0.243], ["2022-01-19", 0.248], ["2022-01-22", 0.242], ["2022-01-27", 0.243], ["2022-01-29", 0.258], ["2022-02-02", 0.258], ["2022-02-03", 0.258], ["2022-02-14", 0.252], ["2022-02-15", 0.25], ["2022-02-19", 0.249], ["2022-03-02", 0.249], ["2022-03-04", 0.244], ["2022-03-09", 0.244], ["2022-03-28", 0.244], ["2022-03-29", 0.259], ["2022-04-01", 0.257], ["2022-04-03", 0.264], ["2022-04-04", 0.264], ["2022-04-08", 0.259], ["2022-04-11", 0.259], ["2022-04-13", 0.264], ["2022-04-14", 0.264], ["2022-04-16", 0.263], ["2022-04-18", 0.261], ["2022-04-20", 0.268], ["2022-04-23", 0.27], ["2022-04-27", 0.269], ["2022-04-29", 0.278], ["2022-05-03", 0.278], ["2022-05-04", 0.279], ["2022-05-11", 0.278], ["2022-05-18", 0.278], ["2022-05-18", 0.279], ["2022-06-02", 0.279], ["2022-06-05", 0.298], ["2022-06-07", 0.3], ["2022-06-09", 0.302], ["2022-06-11", 0.302], ["2022-06-12", 0.308], ["2022-06-14", 0.308], ["2022-06-17", 0.314], ["2022-06-18", 0.314], ["2022-06-21", 0.313], ["2022-06-21", 0.315], ["2022-06-24", 0.318], ["2022-06-25", 0.334], ["2022-06-27", 0.356], ["2022-06-28", 0.355], ["2022-06-30", 0.366], ["2022-07-02", 0.372], ["2022-07-03", 0.373], ["2022-07-06", 0.378], ["2022-07-08", 0.378], ["2022-07-10", 0.378], ["2022-07-15", 0.379], ["2022-07-22", 0.384], ["2022-07-22", 0.388], ["2022-07-26", 0.387], ["2022-07-26", 0.388], ["2022-08-02", 0.389], ["2022-08-03", 0.389], ["2022-08-07", 0.395], ["2022-08-11", 0.397], ["2022-08-12", 0.398], ["2022-08-18", 0.398], ["2022-08-19", 0.403], ["2022-08-22", 0.404], ["2022-08-24", 0.405], ["2022-08-25", 0.408], ["2022-08-27", 0.41], ["2022-09-01", 0.418], ["2022-09-09", 0.418], ["2022-09-09", 0.421], ["2022-09-12", 0.425], ["2022-09-14", 0.45], ["2022-09-16", 0.458], ["2022-09-19", 0.458], ["2022-09-21", 0.467], ["2022-09-23", 0.481], ["2022-09-24", 0.483], ["2022-09-26", 0.483], ["2022-09-28", 0.487], ["2022-09-30", 0.51]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7816/ | On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.
During the event, Musk said, "We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year".
According to The Verge,
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.
Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.
The robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.
Predict the date of general availability in this related question. | Science & Tech | This question will resolve as Yes if both of these criteria are fulfilled:
Before 2023, a prototype of a humanoid robot developed by Tesla is revealed in at least one of the following:
A social media post by an account officially held by Tesla, Inc.
The official website of Tesla, Inc.
A live event organized by Tesla, Inc.
Some other event organized by Tesla, Inc where members of the public or press are invited.
A social media post by an account held by current Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
The revealed prototype shall be able to move, and this ability must be shown during the event or in the revealed material.
For the purpose of this question "a prototype of a humanoid robot" is defined as a machine that contains at least the legs of a humanoid and/or the arms of a humanoid. The resolution criteria are indifferent toward the power source, computer and autonomy level (e.g it does not have to run on battery power, the computer may be "outside" the robot and a human may (electronically) control the movement of the robot).
A written or photo update on Tesla Bot in the absence of an event, will not count toward a positive resolution | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
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The party has been heading the government since 2014 under Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, who has been the party leader since 2012.
During the 2021 Swedish governmental crisis, Löfven stepped down as Prime Minister on June 28th, but was re-elected by the Riksdag 9 days later.
On August 22 2021, during his yearly summer speech, Löfven announced that he would step down as party leader and that his successor would be chosen at the party congress in November of 2021.
Magdalena Andersson is the current Minister of Finance and is widely considered as one of the favorites to be the next party leader (and if so, probably the next Prime Minister as well if she is tolerated by the Riksdag).
Sweden has its next general election in September of 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Magdalena Andersson becomes the next party leader of the Social Democratic Workers' Party of Sweden as reported by at least 5 credible sources, where at least 2 are written in English.
If the next party leader is an interim leader and this is clearly stated in 5 credible sources then this question should remain open. (Synonyms to "interim leader" also counts as "clearly stated").
If the next party leader is chosen before the Social Democratic party congress which takes place 3-7 November of 2021, then this question should retroactively close 24 hours before the new leader was chosen.
The question does not depend on when the next party leader is chosen but if no new party leader is chosen before 2030 then this question resolves ambiguously | true | 2021-10-31 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?
Talk of a "new Cold War" and heightened "Great Power Competition" between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC), has recently stoked debate about whether the United States should boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics, which are scheduled to be held in Beijing. (See this Council on Foreign Relations brief on the boycott debate)
Governments and human rights activists have pointed to the PRC's human rights abuses as a particular reason why Western governments should decide not to let China profit off its athletes, and US allies -- particularly Canada -- have suggested that their athletes themselves may not be safe in China.
There is precedent for Olympic boycotts, including during the Cold War, but little evidence that such boycotts work in the sense of getting states to change their policies.
US government spokespeople have said as recently as April 2021 that they were not discussing a boycott with allies and partners. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve if the US Olympic team is not represented at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. If the US and partners decide to hold an alternative to the games outside China, it will be considered a "boycott." If individual athletes on the US team boycott the games, but the US team is officially participating, it will not be considered a "US boycott."
This question will close retroactively 24 hours before an official spokesperson for the US team or State Department announces that the US team will boycott.
Fine Print
If the Olympics are postponed, any winter olympics event happening between 2022-2025 (inclusive) in China will be considered "The 2022 Beijing Olympics". | true | 2021-12-04 | Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics? | metaculus | 0 |
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Projects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—appear to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see this other question.
--
This is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.
How many words of content will have been published?
What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?
What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?
How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
What will be the quality of the best articles?
Will the Wiki be "alive"? | Education & Research | The question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of this other question (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively | true | 2023-01-01 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
If there is any ambiguity, the question resolves based on whether O'Toole is Prime Minister of Canada on October 31, 2021 | true | 2021-09-19 | Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election? | metaculus | 0 |
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Hawaii's EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 21-06 signed 1 September 2021 allows medical providers in the state to ration COVID care without fear of liability: https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/upload…
WASHINGTON POST: When medical care must be rationed, should vaccination status count
North Texas Mass Critical Care Guideline Task Force had quietly circulated a memo saying that doctors could take vaccination status into account if triage became necessary in assigning hospital beds, though hours later the group said the document had merely been a “homework assignment.” | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if any hospital in the United States allows doctors to directly and unambiguously take a patient's vaccination status into account if triage becomes necessary in assigning hospital beds.
This question resolves based on reporting by credible media sources (e.g., The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, local news media, etc.).
Fine Print
To clarify, merely taking into account a patient's expectation of survival is not enough to resolve this question as yes; that is already being done in the state of Idaho as noted in the background information. | true | 2021-11-13 | By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
In case of ambiguity, this question resolves based on whether or not a Democrat is the sitting governor of Virginia at 11:59 PM on the Saturday after the second Wednesday in January 2022, when the next governor is scheduled to be inaugurated. | true | 2021-11-02 | Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? | metaculus | 0 |
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If the Department of Labor does not introduce a new rule which requires employees of companies with more than 100 employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or tested weekly, this resolves ambiguously.
If the Supreme Court of the United States strikes down either the vaccine requirement or the testing requirement but leaves the other in place, this resolves positively. If the Supreme Court strikes down part of the new rule but the remainder of the rule still requires employees of companies with over 100 employees to be either vaccinated or undergo weekly testing, this resolves negatively | true | 2021-10-10 | Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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For further explanation, please see Axios: Biden mandates COVID vaccines for federal workers, with no option for testing. Federal employees have 75 days from when the executive order was signed to get fully vaccinated, with the only exceptions being medical or religious accommodation. Those who fail to comply face discipline by their agencies up to and including termination.
For more information please see Federal News Network: Biden will now require vaccines for all federal employees via new executive order
This question resolves on 23 November 2021, which is 75 days after the executive order. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves as positive if the United State Supreme Court rules by 23 November 2021 that any part of President Biden's executive order violates any part of the US Constitution. If it does not, the question will resolve negative. If the Court decides on any aspect of this case without addressing any issues of constitutionality, the question will resolve negative | true | 2021-10-24 | By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19? | metaculus | 0 |
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An extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit to 2025 has been proposed as part of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package currently being debated in the Senate. | Politics & Governance | Upon credible, consensus open media reports (NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, etc.) that the US Senate has passed a bill expanding the maximum award of the Child Tax Credit above $2,000 per year past 31 December 2021, this question resolves as yes. Otherwise it resolves as no | true | 2021-10-16 | By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
Any sort of authorization, whether a general authorization or an EUA, would count. The administration of vaccination shots as part of medical research would not count. | true | 2021-10-16 | By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? | metaculus | 1 |
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2023-01-11 | 2021-09-14 | ["https://i.postimg.cc/fRjmcn4T/fable-20191201.png", "https://i.postimg.cc/2SZCqvt4/fable-20220601.png"] | binary | [["2021-09-16", 0.7], ["2021-09-21", 0.444], ["2021-09-23", 0.435], ["2021-09-27", 0.441], ["2021-10-02", 0.472], ["2021-10-07", 0.476], ["2021-10-12", 0.478], ["2021-10-17", 0.478], ["2021-10-21", 0.478], ["2021-10-23", 0.476], ["2021-10-27", 0.465], ["2021-11-01", 0.464], ["2021-11-06", 0.471], ["2021-11-10", 0.469], ["2021-11-21", 0.469], ["2021-11-23", 0.464], ["2021-12-02", 0.47], ["2021-12-05", 0.475], ["2021-12-07", 0.477], ["2021-12-12", 0.497], ["2021-12-15", 0.517], ["2021-12-18", 0.533], ["2021-12-23", 0.565], ["2021-12-27", 0.572], ["2021-12-30", 0.571], ["2022-01-03", 0.575], ["2022-01-05", 0.577], ["2022-01-12", 0.576], ["2022-01-12", 0.581], ["2022-01-25", 0.581], ["2022-01-30", 0.581], ["2022-02-03", 0.584], ["2022-02-08", 0.596], ["2022-02-11", 0.601], ["2022-02-15", 0.609], ["2022-02-17", 0.606], ["2022-02-23", 0.606], ["2022-02-24", 0.605], ["2022-03-01", 0.606], ["2022-03-06", 0.605], ["2022-03-11", 0.621], ["2022-03-15", 0.621], ["2022-03-18", 0.631], ["2022-03-22", 0.633], ["2022-03-28", 0.643], ["2022-04-01", 0.65], ["2022-04-03", 0.651], ["2022-04-08", 0.666], ["2022-04-12", 0.669], ["2022-04-15", 0.672], ["2022-04-18", 0.677], ["2022-04-24", 0.689], ["2022-04-27", 0.691], ["2022-05-03", 0.69], ["2022-05-06", 0.69], ["2022-05-09", 0.696], ["2022-05-14", 0.7], ["2022-05-18", 0.718], ["2022-05-21", 0.722], ["2022-05-25", 0.726], ["2022-06-01", 0.728], ["2022-06-06", 0.728], ["2022-06-08", 0.735], ["2022-06-12", 0.736], ["2022-06-15", 0.736], ["2022-06-20", 0.739], ["2022-06-23", 0.75], ["2022-07-08", 0.75], ["2022-07-12", 0.755], ["2022-07-15", 0.756], ["2022-07-19", 0.759], ["2022-07-29", 0.761], ["2022-08-02", 0.812], ["2022-08-06", 0.813], ["2022-08-18", 0.812], ["2022-08-19", 0.813], ["2022-09-01", 0.814], ["2022-09-13", 0.814], ["2022-09-19", 0.814], ["2022-09-27", 0.814], ["2022-10-02", 0.817], ["2022-10-05", 0.82], ["2022-10-12", 0.821], ["2022-10-16", 0.821], ["2022-10-20", 0.825], ["2022-10-27", 0.825], ["2022-10-28", 0.824], ["2022-11-05", 0.824], ["2022-11-05", 0.825], ["2022-11-14", 0.824], ["2022-11-15", 0.824], ["2022-12-02", 0.826], ["2022-12-02", 0.826], ["2022-12-11", 0.828], ["2022-12-12", 0.828], ["2022-12-19", 0.828], ["2022-12-23", 0.83], ["2022-12-27", 0.836], ["2023-01-01", 0.84], ["2023-01-06", 0.85], ["2023-01-08", 0.857]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7977/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.
The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUUR0000SA0L1E).
If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.
Will the core CPI rise by more than 3% between December 2021 and December 2022?
This resolves according to data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUUR0000SA0L1E). | true | 2023-01-31 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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On 14 September 2021, it was reported by the Washington Post that General Milley took steps to prevent President Donald Trump from being able to launch offensive war against China in January 2021, as detailed in an upcoming book by reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.
This has led to calls from critics as such as The National Review for his ouster, and for him to be brought up on charges up to and including treason. | Security & Defense | This question resolves as positive if General Milley leaves or is removed from his position of 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff by 11:59 PM on 31 December 2021. Otherwise this resolves as negative.
Fine Print
In the event General Milley leaves his position, this question retroactively resolves before the result was known | true | 2021-11-20 | By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-02-10 | 2021-09-15 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-16", 0.6], ["2021-09-16", 0.6], ["2021-09-16", 0.485], ["2021-09-16", 0.615], ["2021-09-16", 0.49], ["2021-09-16", 0.482], ["2021-09-17", 0.436], ["2021-09-17", 0.427], ["2021-09-17", 0.428], ["2021-09-17", 0.403], ["2021-09-17", 0.446], ["2021-09-18", 0.441], ["2021-09-19", 0.466], ["2021-09-20", 0.466], ["2021-09-20", 0.465], ["2021-09-20", 0.495], ["2021-09-20", 0.484], ["2021-09-21", 0.484], ["2021-09-21", 0.484], ["2021-09-23", 0.47], ["2021-09-25", 0.483], ["2021-09-26", 0.497], ["2021-09-30", 0.497], ["2021-10-07", 0.487], ["2021-10-14", 0.484], ["2021-10-14", 0.484], ["2021-10-14", 0.486], ["2021-10-23", 0.486], ["2021-10-23", 0.486], ["2021-11-01", 0.483], ["2021-11-06", 0.503], ["2021-11-10", 0.501], ["2021-11-12", 0.496], ["2021-11-13", 0.496], ["2021-11-18", 0.482], ["2021-11-23", 0.475], ["2021-11-23", 0.475], ["2021-11-24", 0.475], ["2021-12-06", 0.47], ["2021-12-26", 0.47], ["2022-01-01", 0.47], ["2022-01-08", 0.459], ["2022-01-12", 0.46], ["2022-01-18", 0.46], ["2022-01-19", 0.448], ["2022-01-22", 0.446], ["2022-01-23", 0.445], ["2022-01-25", 0.443], ["2022-01-26", 0.444], ["2022-01-27", 0.443], ["2022-01-27", 0.443], ["2022-01-28", 0.444], ["2022-01-29", 0.444], ["2022-01-31", 0.443], ["2022-01-31", 0.443], ["2022-01-31", 0.438], ["2022-01-31", 0.44], ["2022-01-31", 0.44]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7987/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.
The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated.
One approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the "core CPI," which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUUR0000SA0L1E)
Commercial paper is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate.
In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?
This question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%.
This resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for all such months, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.
This resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for any such month, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate. | true | 2022-02-01 | In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-10-18 | 2021-09-16 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-19", 0.6], ["2021-09-19", 0.565], ["2021-09-20", 0.565], ["2021-09-20", 0.613], ["2021-09-21", 0.585], ["2021-09-21", 0.585], ["2021-09-21", 0.57], ["2021-09-22", 0.583], ["2021-09-27", 0.542], ["2021-09-27", 0.493], ["2021-09-27", 0.487], ["2021-09-27", 0.473], ["2021-09-27", 0.473], ["2021-09-27", 0.478], ["2021-09-27", 0.478], ["2021-09-29", 0.473], ["2021-09-29", 0.477], ["2021-10-01", 0.465], ["2021-10-01", 0.468], ["2021-10-02", 0.468], ["2021-10-02", 0.468], ["2021-10-02", 0.479], ["2021-10-03", 0.494], ["2021-10-03", 0.494], ["2021-10-03", 0.506], ["2021-10-03", 0.506], ["2021-10-05", 0.512], ["2021-10-06", 0.512], ["2021-10-06", 0.509], ["2021-10-07", 0.508], ["2021-10-07", 0.507], ["2021-10-08", 0.506], ["2021-10-08", 0.48], ["2021-10-08", 0.484], ["2021-10-08", 0.484], ["2021-10-08", 0.491], ["2021-10-08", 0.488], ["2021-10-08", 0.501], ["2021-10-08", 0.502], ["2021-10-09", 0.504], ["2021-10-09", 0.504], ["2021-10-10", 0.498], ["2021-10-10", 0.51], ["2021-10-11", 0.51], ["2021-10-11", 0.513], ["2021-10-11", 0.513], ["2021-10-12", 0.517], ["2021-10-12", 0.531], ["2021-10-12", 0.535], ["2021-10-14", 0.536], ["2021-10-14", 0.536], ["2021-10-15", 0.532], ["2021-10-15", 0.526], ["2021-10-15", 0.526], ["2021-10-17", 0.527], ["2021-10-17", 0.509], ["2021-10-18", 0.505], ["2021-10-18", 0.501], ["2021-10-18", 0.501]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8002/ | The Metaculus prediction (MP) was on the correct side of the consensus for the first 4 scheduled trades in the Trade Signal tournament. | Economics & Business | There are 9 trades scheduled after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only predictions for these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that the MP is deemed to be equal to the consensus to the significant digits reported as the consensus by marketwatch then no trade will be attempted, and the forecast will not count toward the resolution. If Metaculus wants to trade, but is unable to trade because there is no "cash available for trading" in the brokerage account then that prediction will still count toward this resolution | true | 2021-10-27 | Will more than half of the remaining forecasts in the Trade Signal tournament that correspond to trades be on the correct side of the consensus? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-10-28 | 2021-09-16 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-20", 0.51], ["2021-09-20", 0.51], ["2021-09-21", 0.523], ["2021-09-21", 0.526], ["2021-09-21", 0.525], ["2021-09-21", 0.528], ["2021-09-21", 0.527], ["2021-09-21", 0.527], ["2021-09-21", 0.53], ["2021-09-21", 0.527], ["2021-09-21", 0.503], ["2021-09-21", 0.503], ["2021-09-21", 0.503], ["2021-09-21", 0.492], ["2021-09-21", 0.492], ["2021-09-21", 0.484], ["2021-09-22", 0.489], ["2021-09-22", 0.476], ["2021-09-26", 0.478], ["2021-09-27", 0.478], ["2021-09-27", 0.459], ["2021-09-27", 0.459], ["2021-09-27", 0.446], ["2021-09-27", 0.456], ["2021-09-28", 0.456], ["2021-09-29", 0.451], ["2021-09-30", 0.434], ["2021-09-30", 0.436], ["2021-10-01", 0.438], ["2021-10-01", 0.439], ["2021-10-02", 0.44], ["2021-10-02", 0.44], ["2021-10-02", 0.444], ["2021-10-03", 0.446], ["2021-10-03", 0.446], ["2021-10-05", 0.444], ["2021-10-07", 0.443], ["2021-10-08", 0.443], ["2021-10-08", 0.457], ["2021-10-09", 0.46], ["2021-10-09", 0.46], ["2021-10-09", 0.461], ["2021-10-09", 0.466], ["2021-10-10", 0.466], ["2021-10-10", 0.466], ["2021-10-11", 0.466], ["2021-10-13", 0.466], ["2021-10-15", 0.467], ["2021-10-15", 0.47], ["2021-10-15", 0.47], ["2021-10-15", 0.478], ["2021-10-15", 0.478], ["2021-10-15", 0.479], ["2021-10-18", 0.468], ["2021-10-18", 0.467], ["2021-10-18", 0.467], ["2021-10-18", 0.457], ["2021-10-18", 0.457], ["2021-10-19", 0.457], ["2021-10-19", 0.471], ["2021-10-19", 0.471], ["2021-10-19", 0.47], ["2021-10-19", 0.469], ["2021-10-19", 0.47], ["2021-10-19", 0.47], ["2021-10-19", 0.469], ["2021-10-19", 0.469], ["2021-10-19", 0.469], ["2021-10-19", 0.472], ["2021-10-20", 0.464], ["2021-10-20", 0.457], ["2021-10-20", 0.457], ["2021-10-21", 0.461], ["2021-10-21", 0.461], ["2021-10-21", 0.444], ["2021-10-22", 0.455], ["2021-10-24", 0.463], ["2021-10-24", 0.462], ["2021-10-26", 0.462], ["2021-10-26", 0.462], ["2021-10-26", 0.457], ["2021-10-26", 0.456], ["2021-10-26", 0.445], ["2021-10-26", 0.445], ["2021-10-26", 0.428], ["2021-10-26", 0.426], ["2021-10-26", 0.426], ["2021-10-26", 0.421], ["2021-10-26", 0.422], ["2021-10-26", 0.422]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8003/ | Metaculus made money on 2 of the first 4 trades in the Trade Signal tournament. | Economics & Business | There are 9 trades scheduled after Sept 17 for the Trade Signal tournament. Only these 9 trades will potentially count toward this resolution. In the event that a scheduled trade is not made, for any reason, it will not count toward this resolution | true | 2021-10-27 | Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-10-29 | 2021-09-16 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-19", 0.6], ["2021-09-19", 0.6], ["2021-09-19", 0.65], ["2021-09-21", 0.605], ["2021-09-21", 0.584], ["2021-09-22", 0.597], ["2021-09-23", 0.533], ["2021-09-25", 0.533], ["2021-09-26", 0.546], ["2021-09-27", 0.547], ["2021-09-27", 0.54], ["2021-09-27", 0.514], ["2021-09-27", 0.502], ["2021-09-27", 0.502], ["2021-09-27", 0.49], ["2021-09-27", 0.49], ["2021-09-27", 0.473], ["2021-09-27", 0.473], ["2021-09-27", 0.475], ["2021-09-27", 0.485], ["2021-09-30", 0.485], ["2021-09-30", 0.453], ["2021-09-30", 0.429], ["2021-10-01", 0.433], ["2021-10-01", 0.435], ["2021-10-02", 0.439], ["2021-10-03", 0.439], ["2021-10-03", 0.466], ["2021-10-03", 0.471], ["2021-10-05", 0.469], ["2021-10-07", 0.468], ["2021-10-07", 0.467], ["2021-10-08", 0.463], ["2021-10-08", 0.463], ["2021-10-08", 0.464], ["2021-10-09", 0.467], ["2021-10-09", 0.466], ["2021-10-10", 0.466], ["2021-10-10", 0.465], ["2021-10-10", 0.481], ["2021-10-11", 0.479], ["2021-10-11", 0.479], ["2021-10-11", 0.467], ["2021-10-11", 0.466], ["2021-10-13", 0.467], ["2021-10-14", 0.472], ["2021-10-14", 0.472], ["2021-10-14", 0.455], ["2021-10-15", 0.456], ["2021-10-15", 0.456], ["2021-10-15", 0.455], ["2021-10-15", 0.454], ["2021-10-15", 0.456], ["2021-10-17", 0.456], ["2021-10-17", 0.467], ["2021-10-18", 0.467], ["2021-10-18", 0.473], ["2021-10-18", 0.472], ["2021-10-18", 0.47], ["2021-10-18", 0.45], ["2021-10-18", 0.449], ["2021-10-18", 0.449], ["2021-10-18", 0.451], ["2021-10-18", 0.444], ["2021-10-18", 0.443], ["2021-10-19", 0.443], ["2021-10-19", 0.443], ["2021-10-19", 0.442], ["2021-10-19", 0.436], ["2021-10-19", 0.43], ["2021-10-19", 0.428], ["2021-10-19", 0.422], ["2021-10-19", 0.421], ["2021-10-19", 0.42], ["2021-10-19", 0.419], ["2021-10-22", 0.415], ["2021-10-22", 0.415], ["2021-10-22", 0.412], ["2021-10-22", 0.408], ["2021-10-24", 0.405], ["2021-10-24", 0.404], ["2021-10-25", 0.404], ["2021-10-25", 0.404], ["2021-10-26", 0.407], ["2021-10-26", 0.4], ["2021-10-26", 0.397], ["2021-10-26", 0.397], ["2021-10-26", 0.389], ["2021-10-26", 0.388], ["2021-10-26", 0.383], ["2021-10-26", 0.379], ["2021-10-26", 0.374], ["2021-10-26", 0.373], ["2021-10-26", 0.364], ["2021-10-26", 0.363], ["2021-10-26", 0.357], ["2021-10-26", 0.357], ["2021-10-26", 0.354]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8004/ | Metaculus started with a $1,500 prize pool for the Trade Signal tournament. We are trading this prize pool based on this trading plan. As of Sept 16, the prize pool is $1,500.72. | Economics & Business | Resolves yes if the final prize pool exceeds $1,500 | true | 2021-10-27 | Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-09-16 | ["https://twitter.com/JoaquinCastrotx/status/1612190346074808320", "https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1612211485446389760", "https://twitter.com/davidrkadler/status/1612152507727499265?s=46&t=flkmRHOsD84Ki_IhkhebAg", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-returns-office-troubled-divided-brazil-2023-01-01/", "https://news.yahoo.com/report-brazils-bolsonaro-skip-successors-183513014.html", "https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/stephen-k-bannon-sentenced-four-months-prison-two-counts-contempt-congress", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-arrests-four-people-alleged-coup-attempt-bolsonaro-riots-2022-12-29/?taid=63ae174bd1c0130001ec02ce&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/it-hurts-my-soul-brazils-bolsonaro-ends-post-election-silence-2022-12-09/?taid=6393c2aa6d01160001839098&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://twitter.com/choquei/status/1595563030401761281", "https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/bolsonaro-pede-ao-tse-anulacao-de-votos-em-parte-das-urnas-nas-eleicoes-de-2022/?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter-feed&utm_campaign=politica-cnn-brasil&utm_content=link", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/29/world/politics-diplomacy-world/brazil-final-presidential-debate/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1667031472"] | binary | [["2021-09-19", 0.1], ["2021-09-21", 0.17], ["2021-09-25", 0.165], ["2021-09-28", 0.155], ["2021-10-01", 0.12], ["2021-10-04", 0.114], ["2021-10-07", 0.123], ["2021-10-10", 0.124], ["2021-10-14", 0.124], ["2021-10-20", 0.124], ["2021-10-22", 0.127], ["2021-10-29", 0.124], ["2021-10-31", 0.124], ["2021-11-15", 0.122], ["2021-11-17", 0.119], ["2021-11-30", 0.118], ["2021-12-02", 0.118], ["2021-12-07", 0.117], ["2021-12-09", 0.115], ["2021-12-26", 0.115], ["2021-12-30", 0.12], ["2022-01-03", 0.12], ["2022-01-08", 0.111], ["2022-01-10", 0.111], ["2022-01-13", 0.109], ["2022-01-20", 0.109], ["2022-01-27", 0.107], ["2022-02-02", 0.107], ["2022-02-06", 0.104], ["2022-02-10", 0.104], ["2022-02-14", 0.103], ["2022-02-18", 0.103], ["2022-02-21", 0.103], ["2022-02-24", 0.103], ["2022-02-27", 0.102], ["2022-03-03", 0.102], ["2022-03-09", 0.101], ["2022-03-09", 0.101], ["2022-03-15", 0.101], ["2022-03-16", 0.1], ["2022-04-01", 0.099], ["2022-04-03", 0.098], ["2022-04-17", 0.098], ["2022-04-20", 0.102], ["2022-04-25", 0.104], ["2022-05-04", 0.104], ["2022-05-11", 0.103], ["2022-05-15", 0.104], ["2022-05-16", 0.104], ["2022-05-21", 0.099], ["2022-05-24", 0.099], ["2022-05-28", 0.098], ["2022-06-01", 0.095], ["2022-06-07", 0.095], ["2022-06-12", 0.108], ["2022-06-15", 0.107], ["2022-06-18", 0.107], ["2022-06-22", 0.107], ["2022-06-27", 0.107], ["2022-07-01", 0.106], ["2022-07-05", 0.106], ["2022-07-10", 0.105], ["2022-07-15", 0.105], ["2022-07-17", 0.108], ["2022-07-21", 0.107], ["2022-07-24", 0.105], ["2022-08-06", 0.105], ["2022-08-09", 0.107], ["2022-08-15", 0.107], ["2022-08-19", 0.106], ["2022-08-23", 0.106], ["2022-08-24", 0.106], ["2022-09-06", 0.106], ["2022-09-16", 0.109], ["2022-09-20", 0.108], ["2022-09-25", 0.108], ["2022-09-28", 0.111], ["2022-10-03", 0.109], ["2022-10-07", 0.106], ["2022-10-14", 0.106], ["2022-10-16", 0.104], ["2022-10-23", 0.104], ["2022-10-28", 0.105], ["2022-10-31", 0.088], ["2022-11-03", 0.084], ["2022-11-06", 0.08], ["2022-11-11", 0.08], ["2022-11-14", 0.078], ["2022-11-16", 0.079], ["2022-11-20", 0.077], ["2022-11-24", 0.076], ["2022-11-28", 0.07], ["2022-11-30", 0.069], ["2022-12-05", 0.066], ["2022-12-08", 0.065], ["2022-12-11", 0.064], ["2022-12-16", 0.063], ["2022-12-19", 0.063], ["2022-12-23", 0.062], ["2022-12-27", 0.061], ["2022-12-30", 0.05]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8005/ | From The Week,
Is Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.
He also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.” | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2, 2023 (Pacific Time),
Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup
Credible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023
"Credible media" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS | true | 2022-12-30 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-11-01 | 2021-09-20 | [] | binary | [["2021-09-21", 0.11], ["2021-09-21", 0.094], ["2021-09-21", 0.068], ["2021-09-22", 0.062], ["2021-09-22", 0.056], ["2021-09-22", 0.046], ["2021-09-22", 0.044], ["2021-09-22", 0.041], ["2021-09-23", 0.039], ["2021-09-23", 0.038], ["2021-09-23", 0.038], ["2021-09-23", 0.038], ["2021-09-23", 0.038], ["2021-09-24", 0.038], ["2021-09-24", 0.038], ["2021-09-24", 0.038], ["2021-09-24", 0.038], ["2021-09-24", 0.04], ["2021-09-24", 0.04], ["2021-09-25", 0.04], ["2021-09-25", 0.04], ["2021-09-25", 0.04], ["2021-09-26", 0.041], ["2021-09-26", 0.041], ["2021-09-26", 0.04], ["2021-09-27", 0.04], ["2021-09-27", 0.04], ["2021-09-27", 0.04], ["2021-09-28", 0.04], ["2021-09-28", 0.04], ["2021-09-28", 0.039], ["2021-09-29", 0.042], ["2021-09-29", 0.044], ["2021-09-29", 0.044], ["2021-09-29", 0.044], ["2021-09-29", 0.043], ["2021-09-29", 0.043], ["2021-09-30", 0.043], ["2021-09-30", 0.043], ["2021-09-30", 0.044], ["2021-09-30", 0.044], ["2021-09-30", 0.044], ["2021-09-30", 0.044], ["2021-10-01", 0.044], ["2021-10-01", 0.044], ["2021-10-01", 0.043], ["2021-10-01", 0.043], ["2021-10-01", 0.046], ["2021-10-02", 0.046], ["2021-10-02", 0.049], ["2021-10-02", 0.049], ["2021-10-02", 0.051], ["2021-10-02", 0.05], ["2021-10-03", 0.051], ["2021-10-03", 0.051], ["2021-10-03", 0.051], ["2021-10-03", 0.051], ["2021-10-03", 0.051], ["2021-10-04", 0.05], ["2021-10-04", 0.05], ["2021-10-04", 0.05], ["2021-10-04", 0.051], ["2021-10-05", 0.05], ["2021-10-05", 0.05], ["2021-10-05", 0.05], ["2021-10-05", 0.051], ["2021-10-05", 0.051], ["2021-10-06", 0.051], ["2021-10-06", 0.051], ["2021-10-06", 0.054], ["2021-10-06", 0.053], ["2021-10-07", 0.052], ["2021-10-07", 0.053], ["2021-10-07", 0.053], ["2021-10-07", 0.052], ["2021-10-07", 0.051], ["2021-10-07", 0.05], ["2021-10-08", 0.049], ["2021-10-08", 0.049], ["2021-10-08", 0.048], ["2021-10-08", 0.047], ["2021-10-08", 0.047], ["2021-10-09", 0.046], ["2021-10-09", 0.044], ["2021-10-09", 0.043], ["2021-10-09", 0.043], ["2021-10-10", 0.043], ["2021-10-11", 0.043], ["2021-10-11", 0.042], ["2021-10-11", 0.04], ["2021-10-11", 0.04], ["2021-10-12", 0.038], ["2021-10-13", 0.038], ["2021-10-13", 0.038], ["2021-10-14", 0.038], ["2021-10-14", 0.038], ["2021-10-14", 0.036], ["2021-10-15", 0.032], ["2021-10-15", 0.029], ["2021-10-15", 0.028], ["2021-10-15", 0.028]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8024/ | According to Voice of America, the U.S. is in danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt:
Unless Congress votes to increase the amount of money the U.S. Treasury is allowed to borrow above its current debt of $28.5 trillion, the United States will default on its financial obligations sometime in the next several weeks, experts warn.
Few experts consider that likely to happen, but if it did, it could trigger an economic catastrophe with effects far beyond America's shores.
In a letter to members of Congress last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of the damage that would result if the U.S. is unable, even for a short time, to pay its bills.
"A delay that calls into question the federal government's ability to meet all its obligations would likely cause irreparable damage to the U.S. economy and global financial markets," wrote Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board. "At a time when American families, communities, and businesses are still suffering from the effects of the ongoing global pandemic, it would be particularly irresponsible to put the full faith and credit of the United States at risk."
With that crisis looming, Democrats and Republicans in Washington are battling over who should take responsibility for the politically unpopular task of raising the cap on borrowing, commonly known as the debt limit. Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have vowed that not a single one of them will vote to raise the limit.
As of September 20th, Business Insider reports that Mitch McConnell says the GOP will vote for the US to default on its debt:
"We will not support legislation that raises the debt limit," McConnell said after Pelosi and Schumer's announcement. "Democrats do not need our help."
It is currently unclear when exactly the US would become unable to meet its obligations; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said only that the Treasury will run out of cash “sometime in October.” | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if, before 00:00 Eastern on 1 November 2021, the US Treasury announces that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that the US has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that the US has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations:
BBC News
ABC News
CBS News
CNN
Wall Street Journal
Financial Time | true | 2021-10-15 | Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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BBC News
ABC News
CBS News
CNN
Wall Street Journal
Financial Time | true | 2021-11-01 | Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Following its first reading, there was no opposition to printing as a bill and to a second reading, which is scheduled for 22nd October 2021.
Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?
This resolves positively if the Hen Caging (Prohibition) Bill introduced by Henry Smith receives Royal Assent and becomes law in the 2021-22 parliamentary session, recorded on the official Parliamentary Bills website. | true | 2022-04-06 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | metaculus | 0 |
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2022-12-29 | 2021-09-26 | ["https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-12-26/ty-article/.premium/netanyahus-government-to-be-sworn-in-thursday-morning/00000185-4ecd-decf-abcf-6fdd22f50000", "https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/News/PressReleases/Pages/press291222r.aspx", "https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/News/PressReleases/Pages/press291222r.aspx", "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahus-coalition-formally-presented-to-knesset-starting-weeklong-ticking-clock/", "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netanyahu-announces-coalition-to-form-new-israeli-government", "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-gets-extension-until-dec-21-try-form-government-2022-12-09/", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-12-08/ty-article/.premium/as-likud-finishes-handing-out-portfolios-israels-next-cabinet-comes-into-view/00000184-f179-d688-a1af-fdfdae180000", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/13/israel-elects-knesset-speaker", "https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-722733", "https://twitter.com/Isaac_Herzog/status/1591747196810141698", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/israeli-president-to-ask-netanyahu-to-form-next-government?utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/israels-benjamin-netanyahu-makes-comeback-as-pm-lapid-concedes-defeat.html", "https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-religion-israel-united-states-01be04f27e55f6178ad9404c73913c97?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_02"] | binary | [["2022-05-23", 0.16], ["2022-05-24", 0.207], ["2022-05-25", 0.207], ["2022-05-26", 0.255], ["2022-05-28", 0.282], ["2022-05-31", 0.302], ["2022-06-01", 0.302], ["2022-06-01", 0.316], ["2022-06-04", 0.331], ["2022-06-05", 0.338], ["2022-06-07", 0.339], ["2022-06-11", 0.339], ["2022-06-12", 0.338], ["2022-06-12", 0.384], ["2022-06-14", 0.388], ["2022-06-14", 0.391], ["2022-06-14", 0.392], ["2022-06-15", 0.392], ["2022-06-16", 0.382], ["2022-06-20", 0.416], ["2022-06-21", 0.428], ["2022-06-21", 0.428], ["2022-06-22", 0.433], ["2022-06-28", 0.433], ["2022-06-29", 0.434], ["2022-07-05", 0.437], ["2022-07-12", 0.437], ["2022-07-16", 0.457], ["2022-07-20", 0.457], ["2022-07-27", 0.449], ["2022-08-01", 0.453], ["2022-08-02", 0.464], ["2022-08-03", 0.464], ["2022-08-04", 0.465], ["2022-08-04", 0.465], ["2022-08-05", 0.471], ["2022-08-08", 0.471], ["2022-08-08", 0.471], ["2022-08-15", 0.471], ["2022-08-18", 0.461], ["2022-08-19", 0.455], ["2022-08-21", 0.455], ["2022-08-22", 0.455], ["2022-08-31", 0.456], ["2022-09-12", 0.456], ["2022-09-12", 0.456], ["2022-09-19", 0.458], ["2022-09-20", 0.46], ["2022-09-29", 0.46], ["2022-09-29", 0.46], ["2022-10-19", 0.46], ["2022-10-20", 0.447], ["2022-10-25", 0.454], ["2022-10-26", 0.458], ["2022-10-26", 0.458], ["2022-10-28", 0.457], ["2022-10-28", 0.458], ["2022-10-30", 0.457], ["2022-11-02", 0.457], ["2022-11-02", 0.545], ["2022-11-03", 0.747], ["2022-11-03", 0.818], ["2022-11-04", 0.829], ["2022-11-05", 0.853], ["2022-11-06", 0.856], ["2022-11-06", 0.861], ["2022-11-07", 0.859], ["2022-11-08", 0.882], ["2022-11-08", 0.882], ["2022-11-09", 0.885], ["2022-11-10", 0.885], ["2022-11-11", 0.894], ["2022-11-12", 0.894], ["2022-11-12", 0.899], ["2022-11-13", 0.901], ["2022-11-14", 0.901], ["2022-11-14", 0.903], ["2022-11-15", 0.908], ["2022-11-16", 0.908], ["2022-11-16", 0.908], ["2022-11-18", 0.908], ["2022-11-19", 0.908], ["2022-11-20", 0.908], ["2022-11-20", 0.909], ["2022-11-21", 0.911], ["2022-11-22", 0.912], ["2022-11-23", 0.911], ["2022-11-26", 0.911], ["2022-11-28", 0.911], ["2022-11-30", 0.911], ["2022-12-15", 0.911], ["2022-12-16", 0.911], ["2022-12-21", 0.911], ["2022-12-22", 0.912], ["2022-12-23", 0.913], ["2022-12-24", 0.913], ["2022-12-24", 0.913], ["2022-12-26", 0.915], ["2022-12-27", 0.915], ["2022-12-28", 0.916], ["2022-12-29", 0.916]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8054/ | Benajmin Netanyahu is Israel's opposition leader, and he was the longest-serving Prime Minister of Israel. He is being investigated for corruption. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel before January 1, 2030 as reported by reliable media outlets | true | 2029-12-31 | Will Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel again by 2030? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-10-31 | 2021-09-29 | [] | binary | [["2021-10-02", 0.48], ["2021-10-02", 0.62], ["2021-10-02", 0.62], ["2021-10-02", 0.725], ["2021-10-02", 0.725], ["2021-10-02", 0.747], ["2021-10-04", 0.759], ["2021-10-04", 0.772], ["2021-10-05", 0.772], ["2021-10-05", 0.779], ["2021-10-05", 0.776], ["2021-10-05", 0.808], ["2021-10-05", 0.808], ["2021-10-05", 0.797], ["2021-10-06", 0.779], ["2021-10-06", 0.779], ["2021-10-07", 0.789], ["2021-10-09", 0.789], ["2021-10-11", 0.801], ["2021-10-17", 0.801], ["2021-10-17", 0.804], ["2021-10-17", 0.807], ["2021-10-19", 0.806], ["2021-10-23", 0.808], ["2021-10-26", 0.813], ["2021-10-27", 0.813], ["2021-10-29", 0.814], ["2021-10-29", 0.815], ["2021-10-29", 0.819], ["2021-10-29", 0.819]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8095/ | Japan is governed by a bicameral legislature, the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives has greater power, and has the role of appointing the Prime Minister of Japan. The House of Representatives will hold an election no later than 2021-11-28, while the House of Councillors is due for an election in 2022.
In January 2021, Dylan Matthews predicted 90% that LDP would continue to govern Japan:
The Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on Japan [...] [is] not absolute. Japan has had brief periods of non-LDP rule, such as when the opposition Democratic Party held office from 2009 to 2012, but they have tended to be short-lived, and the opposition to the LDP is prone to factionalism and infighting. Polling suggests the party and new Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide don’t face any serious opposition in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that the country has weathered Covid-19 exceptionally well.
Since January, Suga announced he would not seek re-election, leading the LDP to select Fumio Kishida as the next leader of the LDP. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if, after the 2021 election, the Liberal Democratic Party forms a governing coalition in the House of Representatives. The election may be scheduled between late October and November, so the question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open | true | 2021-10-30 | Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-06-30 | 2021-10-01 | [] | binary | [["2021-12-11", 0.55], ["2021-12-11", 0.55], ["2021-12-12", 0.55], ["2021-12-12", 0.588], ["2021-12-13", 0.688], ["2021-12-13", 0.688], ["2021-12-13", 0.688], ["2021-12-13", 0.694], ["2021-12-13", 0.754], ["2021-12-14", 0.754], ["2021-12-14", 0.769], ["2021-12-14", 0.792], ["2021-12-14", 0.787], ["2021-12-15", 0.787], ["2021-12-15", 0.792], ["2021-12-15", 0.801], ["2021-12-16", 0.794], ["2021-12-16", 0.793], ["2021-12-19", 0.794], ["2021-12-27", 0.797], ["2021-12-27", 0.799], ["2021-12-27", 0.799], ["2021-12-30", 0.788], ["2021-12-30", 0.788], ["2021-12-31", 0.788], ["2022-01-03", 0.791], ["2022-01-03", 0.791], ["2022-01-09", 0.789], ["2022-01-09", 0.795], ["2022-01-16", 0.79], ["2022-01-17", 0.791], ["2022-01-19", 0.789], ["2022-01-19", 0.789], ["2022-01-20", 0.789], ["2022-01-20", 0.789], ["2022-01-21", 0.789], ["2022-01-21", 0.789], ["2022-01-27", 0.789], ["2022-02-04", 0.794], ["2022-02-12", 0.794], ["2022-02-19", 0.788], ["2022-02-19", 0.786], ["2022-02-20", 0.783], ["2022-02-23", 0.776], ["2022-03-02", 0.776], ["2022-03-06", 0.781], ["2022-03-06", 0.781], ["2022-03-06", 0.78], ["2022-03-09", 0.781], ["2022-03-13", 0.783], ["2022-03-13", 0.777], ["2022-03-13", 0.781], ["2022-03-13", 0.779], ["2022-03-14", 0.77], ["2022-03-14", 0.768], ["2022-03-14", 0.764], ["2022-03-15", 0.764], ["2022-03-19", 0.764], ["2022-03-19", 0.763], ["2022-03-21", 0.765], ["2022-03-27", 0.764], ["2022-04-03", 0.764], ["2022-04-06", 0.76], ["2022-04-06", 0.763], ["2022-04-06", 0.766], ["2022-04-07", 0.766], ["2022-04-07", 0.768], ["2022-04-07", 0.769], ["2022-04-07", 0.768], ["2022-04-09", 0.768], ["2022-04-09", 0.774], ["2022-04-10", 0.774], ["2022-04-10", 0.776], ["2022-04-11", 0.773], ["2022-04-12", 0.773], ["2022-04-12", 0.773], ["2022-05-09", 0.773], ["2022-05-12", 0.778], ["2022-05-20", 0.775], ["2022-05-20", 0.775], ["2022-05-21", 0.782], ["2022-05-23", 0.781], ["2022-06-11", 0.781], ["2022-06-12", 0.777], ["2022-06-12", 0.777], ["2022-06-14", 0.777], ["2022-06-20", 0.781], ["2022-06-20", 0.8], ["2022-06-20", 0.802], ["2022-06-21", 0.816], ["2022-06-21", 0.824], ["2022-06-21", 0.832], ["2022-06-21", 0.839], ["2022-06-22", 0.844], ["2022-06-23", 0.845], ["2022-06-24", 0.848], ["2022-06-29", 0.848], ["2022-06-29", 0.84], ["2022-06-30", 0.843], ["2022-06-30", 0.844], ["2022-06-30", 0.848]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8101/ | Yair Lapid is Israel's Foreign Minister. He formed the current government of Israel but allowed Naftali Bennett to be Prime Minister first. Lapid is scheduled to become Prime Minister in 2023 in a rotation agreement. The government may collapse before that date. Lapid's liberal, secular, Zionist, and pro two-state solution Yesh Atid party has performed well in Israeli opinion polls, and so Lapid could become Prime Minister even if the government collapses before the rotation agreement takes effect. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if Lapid becomes Prime Minister of Israel before January 1, 2030 as reported by reliable media outlets | true | 2029-12-31 | Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-09-16 | 2021-10-01 | ["https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-univers\u2026", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/", "https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2022-09-17-oxford-university-tops-times-good-university-guide-2023-rankings"] | binary | [["2021-10-17", 0.33], ["2021-10-17", 0.265], ["2021-10-17", 0.265], ["2021-10-17", 0.335], ["2021-10-19", 0.335], ["2021-10-23", 0.336], ["2021-10-28", 0.347], ["2021-10-31", 0.344], ["2021-11-01", 0.339], ["2021-11-03", 0.329], ["2021-11-04", 0.344], ["2021-11-04", 0.343], ["2021-11-06", 0.343], ["2021-11-06", 0.328], ["2021-11-09", 0.331], ["2021-12-07", 0.331], ["2021-12-23", 0.331], ["2021-12-23", 0.322], ["2021-12-25", 0.322], ["2022-01-08", 0.321], ["2022-01-12", 0.326], ["2022-01-19", 0.326], ["2022-02-04", 0.332], ["2022-02-12", 0.332], ["2022-02-13", 0.329], ["2022-02-14", 0.33], ["2022-02-19", 0.331], ["2022-02-24", 0.33], ["2022-02-27", 0.33], ["2022-03-02", 0.33], ["2022-03-04", 0.33], ["2022-03-09", 0.33], ["2022-03-09", 0.33], ["2022-03-24", 0.34], ["2022-04-03", 0.339], ["2022-04-04", 0.335], ["2022-04-15", 0.334], ["2022-04-19", 0.337], ["2022-04-24", 0.337], ["2022-05-03", 0.34], ["2022-05-09", 0.34], ["2022-05-09", 0.338], ["2022-05-11", 0.338], ["2022-05-17", 0.339], ["2022-05-18", 0.341], ["2022-05-19", 0.341], ["2022-05-23", 0.338], ["2022-05-25", 0.336], ["2022-05-28", 0.336], ["2022-05-29", 0.337], ["2022-06-02", 0.336], ["2022-06-02", 0.336], ["2022-06-02", 0.338], ["2022-06-06", 0.339], ["2022-06-06", 0.339], ["2022-06-07", 0.341], ["2022-06-07", 0.342], ["2022-06-11", 0.343], ["2022-06-12", 0.343], ["2022-06-14", 0.356], ["2022-06-16", 0.354], ["2022-06-21", 0.354], ["2022-07-04", 0.355], ["2022-07-07", 0.356], ["2022-07-08", 0.356], ["2022-07-11", 0.361], ["2022-07-15", 0.362], ["2022-07-16", 0.361], ["2022-07-20", 0.362], ["2022-07-22", 0.37], ["2022-07-23", 0.37], ["2022-07-23", 0.381], ["2022-07-31", 0.382], ["2022-08-01", 0.384], ["2022-08-02", 0.386], ["2022-08-03", 0.387], ["2022-08-05", 0.383], ["2022-08-06", 0.383], ["2022-08-09", 0.384], ["2022-08-13", 0.387], ["2022-08-17", 0.383], ["2022-08-17", 0.383], ["2022-08-21", 0.382], ["2022-08-22", 0.382], ["2022-08-22", 0.383], ["2022-08-22", 0.381], ["2022-08-22", 0.381], ["2022-08-23", 0.382], ["2022-08-24", 0.382], ["2022-08-25", 0.381], ["2022-08-25", 0.379], ["2022-08-26", 0.379], ["2022-08-27", 0.38], ["2022-08-30", 0.38], ["2022-08-30", 0.381], ["2022-08-31", 0.381], ["2022-08-31", 0.38]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8102/ | In September 2021, the University of St Andrews placed first in the UK on the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022. This was the first time in the guide's 30-year history that neither Oxford nor Cambridge placed first. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-univers… | Education & Research | This question will resolve positive if neither Oxford nor Cambridges places first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023. It resolves negative if Oxford or Cambridge place first. It will resolve ambiguously if the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide is discontinued.
The ranking will be published in late September 2022. Positive resolution will be ascertained by the official publication of the ranking on https://www.thetimes.co.uk/ | true | 2022-08-31 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-10-02 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#howscore", "https://coinmarketcap.com/", "https://www.binance.com/en/news/flash/7293459"] | binary | [["2022-01-20", 0.7], ["2022-01-21", 0.668], ["2022-01-23", 0.668], ["2022-01-25", 0.663], ["2022-01-26", 0.668], ["2022-01-31", 0.663], ["2022-02-01", 0.658], ["2022-02-07", 0.657], ["2022-02-14", 0.661], ["2022-02-16", 0.661], ["2022-02-19", 0.659], ["2022-02-21", 0.659], ["2022-02-22", 0.656], ["2022-02-24", 0.664], ["2022-02-27", 0.666], ["2022-03-14", 0.666], ["2022-03-14", 0.66], ["2022-03-20", 0.646], ["2022-03-20", 0.644], ["2022-03-27", 0.642], ["2022-04-01", 0.642], ["2022-04-03", 0.644], ["2022-04-07", 0.647], ["2022-04-07", 0.647], ["2022-04-10", 0.65], ["2022-04-19", 0.66], ["2022-04-20", 0.662], ["2022-04-25", 0.662], ["2022-05-11", 0.664], ["2022-05-16", 0.664], ["2022-05-17", 0.664], ["2022-05-19", 0.665], ["2022-05-21", 0.664], ["2022-05-24", 0.66], ["2022-05-25", 0.66], ["2022-06-11", 0.661], ["2022-06-12", 0.661], ["2022-06-18", 0.662], ["2022-06-21", 0.662], ["2022-06-28", 0.668], ["2022-06-29", 0.679], ["2022-07-09", 0.68], ["2022-07-10", 0.68], ["2022-07-15", 0.68], ["2022-07-22", 0.685], ["2022-07-27", 0.685], ["2022-07-29", 0.687], ["2022-08-01", 0.687], ["2022-08-23", 0.688], ["2022-09-03", 0.695], ["2022-09-06", 0.702], ["2022-09-08", 0.7], ["2022-09-12", 0.7], ["2022-09-19", 0.7], ["2022-09-27", 0.701], ["2022-09-27", 0.701], ["2022-09-30", 0.701], ["2022-10-07", 0.7], ["2022-10-10", 0.7], ["2022-10-16", 0.706], ["2022-10-17", 0.708], ["2022-10-19", 0.71], ["2022-10-20", 0.709], ["2022-10-22", 0.706], ["2022-10-23", 0.707], ["2022-10-25", 0.707], ["2022-10-27", 0.708], ["2022-10-31", 0.708], ["2022-11-03", 0.709], ["2022-11-05", 0.706], ["2022-11-05", 0.705], ["2022-11-08", 0.702], ["2022-11-10", 0.651], ["2022-11-11", 0.651], ["2022-11-14", 0.651], ["2022-11-16", 0.647], ["2022-11-18", 0.638], ["2022-11-20", 0.638], ["2022-11-21", 0.62], ["2022-11-23", 0.603], ["2022-11-25", 0.55], ["2022-11-26", 0.544], ["2022-11-28", 0.533], ["2022-11-30", 0.533], ["2022-12-01", 0.53], ["2022-12-03", 0.528], ["2022-12-05", 0.527], ["2022-12-06", 0.525], ["2022-12-08", 0.524], ["2022-12-09", 0.518], ["2022-12-12", 0.468], ["2022-12-14", 0.46], ["2022-12-16", 0.43], ["2022-12-18", 0.424], ["2022-12-19", 0.422], ["2022-12-21", 0.422], ["2022-12-23", 0.406], ["2022-12-25", 0.397], ["2022-12-28", 0.378], ["2022-12-30", 0.25], ["2022-12-31", 0.167]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8118/ | Solana is a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency that gained significantly in popularity (and market cap) in 2021 due to its high transaction capacity.
At time of writing (1/2022), it is the #7 cryptocurrency by market cap – $43b USD – per CoinMarketCap. For reference, the #10 cryptocurrency is Polkadot (DOT), with $25b USD market cap. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve positively if Solana (SOL) is ranked within the top-10 cryptocurrencies, as determined by market cap on Dec 31, 2022, according to CoinMarketCap.
Fine Print
If Solana drops below the top-10 at some point before Dec 31, 2022, but is within the top-10 at time of resolution on Dec 31, 2022, then this question still resolves positively. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-03 | 2021-10-03 | [] | binary | [["2021-10-08", 0.75], ["2021-10-08", 0.5], ["2021-10-08", 0.483], ["2021-10-08", 0.483], ["2021-10-08", 0.498], ["2021-10-09", 0.525], ["2021-10-09", 0.525], ["2021-10-10", 0.521], ["2021-10-10", 0.53], ["2021-10-10", 0.517], ["2021-10-10", 0.477], ["2021-10-10", 0.434], ["2021-10-10", 0.391], ["2021-10-10", 0.374], ["2021-10-11", 0.353], ["2021-10-11", 0.341], ["2021-10-11", 0.328], ["2021-10-11", 0.313], ["2021-10-11", 0.305], ["2021-10-12", 0.284], ["2021-10-12", 0.281], ["2021-10-12", 0.281], ["2021-10-12", 0.282], ["2021-10-12", 0.278], ["2021-10-12", 0.275], ["2021-10-13", 0.272], ["2021-10-13", 0.273], ["2021-10-13", 0.273], ["2021-10-13", 0.263], ["2021-10-14", 0.266], ["2021-10-14", 0.266], ["2021-10-14", 0.262], ["2021-10-14", 0.262], ["2021-10-15", 0.264], ["2021-10-16", 0.26], ["2021-10-18", 0.26], ["2021-10-18", 0.253], ["2021-10-21", 0.253], ["2021-10-22", 0.26], ["2021-10-22", 0.248], ["2021-10-23", 0.248], ["2021-10-23", 0.241], ["2021-10-23", 0.24], ["2021-10-23", 0.236], ["2021-10-23", 0.239], ["2021-10-24", 0.237], ["2021-10-24", 0.237], ["2021-10-24", 0.231], ["2021-10-24", 0.231], ["2021-10-24", 0.231], ["2021-10-24", 0.231], ["2021-10-24", 0.229], ["2021-10-25", 0.232], ["2021-10-25", 0.228], ["2021-10-25", 0.226], ["2021-10-25", 0.226], ["2021-10-26", 0.225], ["2021-10-26", 0.225], ["2021-10-27", 0.221], ["2021-10-28", 0.221], ["2021-10-28", 0.221], ["2021-10-28", 0.221], ["2021-10-30", 0.219], ["2021-10-30", 0.217], ["2021-10-31", 0.216], ["2021-10-31", 0.216], ["2021-11-02", 0.216], ["2021-11-03", 0.215], ["2021-11-04", 0.216], ["2021-11-04", 0.216], ["2021-11-06", 0.216], ["2021-11-07", 0.216], ["2021-11-08", 0.216], ["2021-11-12", 0.217], ["2021-11-12", 0.217], ["2021-11-14", 0.222], ["2021-11-15", 0.222], ["2021-11-16", 0.222], ["2021-11-18", 0.22], ["2021-11-19", 0.22], ["2021-11-19", 0.219], ["2021-11-19", 0.219], ["2021-11-20", 0.219], ["2021-11-21", 0.217], ["2021-11-22", 0.217], ["2021-11-22", 0.217], ["2021-11-23", 0.213], ["2021-11-27", 0.213], ["2021-11-27", 0.211], ["2021-11-29", 0.211], ["2021-11-29", 0.209], ["2021-11-30", 0.209], ["2021-11-30", 0.207], ["2021-12-01", 0.205], ["2021-12-01", 0.19], ["2021-12-01", 0.182], ["2021-12-02", 0.178], ["2021-12-02", 0.169], ["2021-12-02", 0.165], ["2021-12-02", 0.164], ["2021-12-02", 0.163]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8121/ | Whenever Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without authorization from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, it creates international headlines and increases cross-straits tensions. As of the creation of this question, the latest example of such an incursion was when Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on 3 October 2021. Please see the map of their flight path through Taiwan's ADIZ here.
For purposes of this question, the borders of Taiwan's airspace is considered to be 12 nautical miles out from its coastline. | Security & Defense | This question resolves positively upon aircraft of the People's Liberation Army Air Force entering Taiwan's airspace without authorization. Otherwise it resolves negatively. Resolves per credible media reporting.
Fine Print
Entering Taiwan's ADIZ without also entering Taiwan's airspace does not resolve the question as yes. | true | 2021-12-02 | By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-03 | 2021-10-04 | ["https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2022/07/31/views-from-inside-californias-mckinney-wildfire-and-a-daring-evacuation/?sh=560027c04bab", "https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-03/the-mckinney-fire-has-hit-the-stratosphere", "https://www.science.org/doi/suppl/10.1126/science.add3101/suppl_file/science.add3101_sm.pdf", "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add3101", "https://twitter.com/DrDavePeterson/status/1604526607229558784?t=VtlP9HvlHC0axqSyyZtAZw&s=19", "https://groups.io/g/pyrocb/topics?", "https://groups.io/g/pyrocb/topic/smoke_from_a_distant_fire/91949565?p=,,,20,0,0,0::recentpostdate/sticky,,,20,2,20,91949565,previd%3D1659309732298003311,nextid%3D1655213031790949957&previd=1659309732298003311&nextid=1655213031790949957", "https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-03/the-mckinney-fire-has-hit-the-stratosphere", "https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/11049/2022/"] | binary | [["2021-10-07", 0.87], ["2021-10-08", 0.773], ["2021-10-08", 0.79], ["2021-10-09", 0.765], ["2021-10-10", 0.672], ["2021-10-10", 0.73], ["2021-10-11", 0.713], ["2021-10-11", 0.713], ["2021-10-12", 0.697], ["2021-10-13", 0.69], ["2021-10-19", 0.675], ["2021-10-23", 0.655], ["2021-10-23", 0.64], ["2021-10-28", 0.634], ["2021-10-29", 0.634], ["2021-10-29", 0.634], ["2021-11-11", 0.634], ["2021-11-12", 0.653], ["2021-11-12", 0.667], ["2021-11-12", 0.669], ["2021-11-13", 0.675], ["2021-11-13", 0.675], ["2021-11-15", 0.677], ["2021-11-15", 0.687], ["2021-11-16", 0.697], ["2021-11-16", 0.697], ["2021-11-17", 0.701], ["2021-11-18", 0.724], ["2021-11-18", 0.727], ["2021-11-19", 0.732], ["2021-11-19", 0.738], ["2021-11-20", 0.735], ["2021-11-21", 0.735], ["2021-11-21", 0.728], ["2021-11-21", 0.728], ["2021-11-22", 0.735], ["2021-11-22", 0.737], ["2021-11-24", 0.738], ["2021-11-25", 0.741], ["2021-12-06", 0.744], ["2021-12-06", 0.743], ["2021-12-06", 0.743], ["2021-12-07", 0.744], ["2021-12-07", 0.744], ["2021-12-13", 0.745], ["2021-12-26", 0.745], ["2021-12-28", 0.747], ["2021-12-29", 0.748], ["2022-01-11", 0.748], ["2022-01-12", 0.748], ["2022-02-09", 0.745], ["2022-02-14", 0.745], ["2022-02-14", 0.747], ["2022-02-19", 0.747], ["2022-02-19", 0.746], ["2022-02-20", 0.745], ["2022-02-23", 0.743], ["2022-02-24", 0.742], ["2022-03-02", 0.742], ["2022-03-03", 0.742], ["2022-03-04", 0.739], ["2022-03-07", 0.737], ["2022-03-08", 0.736], ["2022-03-09", 0.736], ["2022-03-10", 0.736], ["2022-03-10", 0.733], ["2022-03-12", 0.733], ["2022-03-14", 0.732], ["2022-03-18", 0.735], ["2022-03-24", 0.735], ["2022-03-26", 0.724], ["2022-03-26", 0.724], ["2022-03-27", 0.733], ["2022-03-28", 0.732], ["2022-04-04", 0.735], ["2022-04-05", 0.735], ["2022-04-27", 0.732], ["2022-05-07", 0.731], ["2022-05-11", 0.731], ["2022-05-14", 0.732], ["2022-05-16", 0.732], ["2022-05-19", 0.731], ["2022-06-11", 0.731], ["2022-06-17", 0.729], ["2022-06-18", 0.728], ["2022-06-18", 0.728], ["2022-06-19", 0.727], ["2022-06-20", 0.727], ["2022-06-21", 0.727], ["2022-06-21", 0.724], ["2022-06-22", 0.722], ["2022-06-22", 0.721], ["2022-06-23", 0.725], ["2022-06-23", 0.725], ["2022-06-23", 0.726], ["2022-06-24", 0.726], ["2022-06-30", 0.725], ["2022-07-02", 0.725], ["2022-07-06", 0.707], ["2022-07-06", 0.711], ["2022-07-11", 0.711]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8128/ | One factor affecting the likelihood and severity of nuclear winter is the proportion of the smoke produced due to fires started by nuclear detonations that would reach the stratosphere. This is related to the question of how frequently fires in general produce smoke that reaches the stratosphere. Robock et al. (2019) write:
Firestorms were also observed in World War II and lofted material to high altitudes (see Penner et al., 1986). Moreover, numerous conflagrations in forest fires with fuel densities similar to those assumed by Reisner et al. have produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere (e.g., Peterson et al., 2018). In 2017 a fire in British Columbia produced a stratospheric smoke pall that was observed by satellites for 8 months (Yu et al., 2019). Aircraft studies have shown that debris from recent fires is common in the lower stratosphere (Ditas et al., 2018). | Environment & Energy | This question resolves positively if, by March 31, 2023, at least two credible sources report that, between October 1, 2021 and December 31, 2022, at least one fire produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere.
These fires can have natural or anthropogenic causes | true | 2023-02-01 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-10-04 | ["https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/another-clash-india-china-border-underscores-risks-militarization#:~:text=On%20December%209%2C%20hundreds%20of,and%20Chinese%20forces%20sustained%20injuries.", "https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/14/asia/india-china-border-tensions-video-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/several-army-soldiers-injured-in-clashes-with-chinese-pla-on-dec-9-first-incident-of-its-kind-after-galwan/article66254984.ece", "https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/chinese-troops-did-not-enter-our-territory-says-pm-modi-at-all-party-meeting-on-ladakh-standoff/story-QGgGUyL3sVRYB7mp3Y8bBI.html", "https://geopoliticalfutures.com/why-the-himalayas-are-worth-fighting-for/", "https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/naku-la_india_1262090", "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pp-15-pullback-complete-final-verification-awaited/articleshow/94162717.cms?from=mdr"] | binary | [["2021-10-07", 0.205], ["2021-10-12", 0.34], ["2021-10-13", 0.361], ["2021-10-16", 0.355], ["2021-10-19", 0.355], ["2021-10-22", 0.355], ["2021-10-24", 0.318], ["2021-10-31", 0.321], ["2021-11-03", 0.321], ["2021-11-05", 0.321], ["2021-11-07", 0.296], ["2021-11-11", 0.288], ["2021-11-13", 0.284], ["2021-11-16", 0.3], ["2021-11-20", 0.288], ["2021-11-24", 0.285], ["2021-11-27", 0.295], ["2021-12-07", 0.295], ["2021-12-07", 0.291], ["2021-12-19", 0.291], ["2021-12-21", 0.294], ["2021-12-25", 0.291], ["2021-12-28", 0.292], ["2022-01-01", 0.288], ["2022-01-04", 0.281], ["2022-01-08", 0.276], ["2022-01-11", 0.279], ["2022-01-27", 0.279], ["2022-02-01", 0.279], ["2022-02-02", 0.275], ["2022-02-06", 0.271], ["2022-02-14", 0.272], ["2022-02-14", 0.272], ["2022-02-19", 0.27], ["2022-02-27", 0.27], ["2022-03-02", 0.264], ["2022-03-03", 0.266], ["2022-03-18", 0.266], ["2022-03-18", 0.268], ["2022-03-26", 0.268], ["2022-04-01", 0.265], ["2022-04-04", 0.263], ["2022-04-08", 0.263], ["2022-04-18", 0.263], ["2022-04-22", 0.263], ["2022-04-27", 0.265], ["2022-04-30", 0.265], ["2022-05-11", 0.265], ["2022-05-21", 0.265], ["2022-05-24", 0.265], ["2022-06-01", 0.264], ["2022-06-10", 0.264], ["2022-06-11", 0.264], ["2022-06-17", 0.264], ["2022-06-19", 0.26], ["2022-06-23", 0.259], ["2022-06-26", 0.258], ["2022-07-01", 0.256], ["2022-07-02", 0.255], ["2022-07-06", 0.25], ["2022-07-08", 0.247], ["2022-07-13", 0.246], ["2022-07-16", 0.245], ["2022-07-26", 0.242], ["2022-08-03", 0.241], ["2022-08-09", 0.24], ["2022-08-17", 0.239], ["2022-08-22", 0.231], ["2022-08-25", 0.228], ["2022-08-27", 0.227], ["2022-09-02", 0.225], ["2022-09-05", 0.224], ["2022-09-08", 0.219], ["2022-09-11", 0.219], ["2022-09-16", 0.219], ["2022-09-21", 0.186], ["2022-09-24", 0.182], ["2022-09-26", 0.178], ["2022-09-29", 0.178], ["2022-10-03", 0.166], ["2022-10-06", 0.161], ["2022-10-09", 0.157], ["2022-10-11", 0.156], ["2022-10-16", 0.153], ["2022-10-21", 0.151], ["2022-10-24", 0.148], ["2022-10-28", 0.145], ["2022-11-08", 0.145], ["2022-11-10", 0.145], ["2022-11-13", 0.144], ["2022-11-24", 0.144], ["2022-11-28", 0.141], ["2022-12-02", 0.141], ["2022-12-06", 0.132], ["2022-12-10", 0.127], ["2022-12-13", 0.132], ["2022-12-18", 0.132], ["2022-12-22", 0.132], ["2022-12-24", 0.132], ["2022-12-27", 0.128], ["2022-12-31", 0.102]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8134/ | Related Queston on Metaculus:
Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Security & Defense | This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between October 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, forces serving the Chinese armed forces and the Indian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.
For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.
At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.
The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both China and India | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-10-04 | ["https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/independent-study-on-potential-environmental-effects-of-nuclear-war", "https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work?keywords=nuclear"] | binary | [["2021-10-07", 0.75], ["2021-10-07", 0.75], ["2021-10-07", 0.665], ["2021-10-07", 0.705], ["2021-10-07", 0.703], ["2021-10-08", 0.703], ["2021-10-08", 0.728], ["2021-10-09", 0.742], ["2021-10-10", 0.743], ["2021-10-11", 0.743], ["2021-10-12", 0.72], ["2021-10-12", 0.72], ["2021-10-13", 0.739], ["2021-10-13", 0.739], ["2021-10-19", 0.727], ["2021-10-20", 0.707], ["2021-10-23", 0.705], ["2021-10-23", 0.703], ["2021-10-23", 0.702], ["2021-10-23", 0.701], ["2021-10-29", 0.693], ["2021-10-30", 0.69], ["2021-10-31", 0.69], ["2021-10-31", 0.686], ["2021-11-04", 0.644], ["2021-11-05", 0.644], ["2021-11-13", 0.646], ["2021-11-15", 0.644], ["2021-11-15", 0.644], ["2021-11-16", 0.641], ["2021-11-16", 0.643], ["2021-11-18", 0.639], ["2021-11-20", 0.644], ["2021-12-04", 0.644], ["2021-12-07", 0.646], ["2021-12-07", 0.653], ["2021-12-29", 0.653], ["2021-12-29", 0.653], ["2021-12-29", 0.653], ["2022-01-01", 0.649], ["2022-01-25", 0.649], ["2022-02-06", 0.649], ["2022-02-11", 0.649], ["2022-02-14", 0.65], ["2022-02-14", 0.649], ["2022-02-14", 0.651], ["2022-02-14", 0.651], ["2022-02-14", 0.649], ["2022-02-19", 0.652], ["2022-02-19", 0.653], ["2022-02-19", 0.653], ["2022-02-24", 0.655], ["2022-02-26", 0.655], ["2022-03-03", 0.653], ["2022-03-03", 0.65], ["2022-03-03", 0.65], ["2022-03-10", 0.66], ["2022-03-11", 0.661], ["2022-03-18", 0.66], ["2022-03-18", 0.664], ["2022-03-27", 0.666], ["2022-03-31", 0.665], ["2022-03-31", 0.665], ["2022-03-31", 0.665], ["2022-03-31", 0.666], ["2022-03-31", 0.665], ["2022-03-31", 0.666], ["2022-03-31", 0.666], ["2022-03-31", 0.659], ["2022-03-31", 0.66], ["2022-04-01", 0.659], ["2022-04-01", 0.66], ["2022-04-01", 0.659], ["2022-04-01", 0.657]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8142/ | Section 3171 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 states:
"The Administrator for Nuclear Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, shall seek to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under which the National Academies conduct a study on the environmental effects of nuclear war.
[...] Not later than 18 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, the National Academies shall submit to the Administrator, the Secretary, the Director, and the congressional defense committees a report on the study under subsection (a).
[...] The report under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex."
The bill was signed into law on 2021-01-01, meaning that "18 months after the enactment of this act" would make this report due by 2022-07-01.
As noted by the Arms Control Association:
"The new report would be among the most significant of its kind by the National Academies since its 640-page examination The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published in 1986."
It seems plausible that such a report could substantially inform our understanding of nuclear risk and substantially influence policymaking in this area, if the report is indeed written and made publicly available. | Environment & Energy | This question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2023-01-01, the National Academies publicly releases a report that is framed as fulfilling the mandate from Section 3171 of the FY21 NDAA and is indeed substantially focused on possible environmental effects of nuclear war | true | 2022-04-01 | Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-11-03 | 2021-10-17 | [] | binary | [["2021-10-21", 0.88], ["2021-10-21", 0.64], ["2021-10-22", 0.54], ["2021-10-23", 0.592], ["2021-10-24", 0.592], ["2021-10-24", 0.644], ["2021-10-24", 0.597], ["2021-10-24", 0.604], ["2021-10-24", 0.604], ["2021-10-24", 0.588], ["2021-10-25", 0.588], ["2021-10-25", 0.582], ["2021-10-25", 0.582], ["2021-10-25", 0.586], ["2021-10-27", 0.603], ["2021-10-27", 0.603], ["2021-10-28", 0.627], ["2021-10-28", 0.641], ["2021-10-28", 0.641], ["2021-10-28", 0.644], ["2021-10-29", 0.662], ["2021-10-30", 0.67], ["2021-11-01", 0.674], ["2021-11-01", 0.674]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8298/ | The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty.
If the Fed launches a “tapering” process to slow down bond purchases this year, this will signal concern that such emergency measures, if extended for too long, are causing price bubbles in markets and economic overheating.
There are only two meetings of the Fed’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) left this year, so much attention will be paid to the statements that come out of that. | Economics & Business | This resolves positive if, before Jan. 1, 2022, an announcement is made in any statement following the almost-monthly meetings of the FOMC, that the pace of bond purchases will be lowered at some point in the future. All the previous statements and the calendars for future meetings this year (in November and December) are here, and any future statements will also be available in the same place | true | 2021-12-12 | Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-10-17 | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ym0j", "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121448/fed-balance-sheet-timeline/#:~:text=Size%20of%20Federal%20Reserve's%20balance%20sheet%202007%2D2022&text=The%20value%20of%20the%20balance,assets%20on%20its%20balance%20sheet."] | binary | [["2021-10-21", 0.42], ["2021-10-22", 0.54], ["2021-10-23", 0.493], ["2021-10-25", 0.414], ["2021-10-26", 0.339], ["2021-10-28", 0.326], ["2021-10-28", 0.298], ["2021-11-06", 0.287], ["2021-11-10", 0.267], ["2021-11-12", 0.258], ["2021-11-15", 0.257], ["2021-11-28", 0.257], ["2021-11-28", 0.256], ["2021-12-07", 0.254], ["2021-12-11", 0.245], ["2021-12-19", 0.245], ["2021-12-26", 0.238], ["2022-01-02", 0.245], ["2022-01-06", 0.245], ["2022-01-07", 0.268], ["2022-01-08", 0.286], ["2022-01-10", 0.287], ["2022-01-12", 0.287], ["2022-01-13", 0.288], ["2022-01-14", 0.285], ["2022-01-20", 0.283], ["2022-01-24", 0.301], ["2022-01-24", 0.301], ["2022-01-31", 0.298], ["2022-02-14", 0.298], ["2022-02-17", 0.298], ["2022-02-19", 0.294], ["2022-03-01", 0.294], ["2022-03-02", 0.293], ["2022-03-17", 0.292], ["2022-03-25", 0.29], ["2022-03-25", 0.29], ["2022-03-30", 0.289], ["2022-04-01", 0.289], ["2022-04-03", 0.287], ["2022-04-06", 0.286], ["2022-04-08", 0.284], ["2022-04-12", 0.284], ["2022-04-14", 0.284], ["2022-04-16", 0.282], ["2022-04-18", 0.282], ["2022-04-19", 0.281], ["2022-05-03", 0.281], ["2022-05-05", 0.284], ["2022-05-11", 0.288], ["2022-05-14", 0.289], ["2022-05-24", 0.289], ["2022-06-09", 0.295], ["2022-06-11", 0.296], ["2022-06-12", 0.308], ["2022-06-14", 0.307], ["2022-06-18", 0.312], ["2022-06-20", 0.308], ["2022-06-21", 0.301], ["2022-06-22", 0.302], ["2022-07-07", 0.302], ["2022-07-10", 0.301], ["2022-07-27", 0.301], ["2022-07-28", 0.293], ["2022-08-02", 0.29], ["2022-08-03", 0.289], ["2022-08-16", 0.289], ["2022-08-23", 0.286], ["2022-09-19", 0.286], ["2022-09-21", 0.286], ["2022-09-25", 0.281], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-10-16", 0.28], ["2022-10-16", 0.279], ["2022-10-28", 0.277], ["2022-10-30", 0.277], ["2022-11-15", 0.277], ["2022-11-16", 0.277], ["2022-11-24", 0.275], ["2022-11-25", 0.242], ["2022-11-27", 0.236], ["2022-11-28", 0.229], ["2022-12-02", 0.226], ["2022-12-02", 0.226], ["2022-12-04", 0.226], ["2022-12-06", 0.226], ["2022-12-07", 0.223], ["2022-12-11", 0.223], ["2022-12-12", 0.219], ["2022-12-14", 0.219], ["2022-12-15", 0.215], ["2022-12-17", 0.211], ["2022-12-18", 0.208], ["2022-12-20", 0.202], ["2022-12-21", 0.202], ["2022-12-22", 0.198], ["2022-12-24", 0.197], ["2022-12-25", 0.197], ["2022-12-29", 0.192], ["2022-12-31", 0.157], ["2022-12-31", 0.157]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8299/ | The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty.
This is creating a massive asset portfolio (“Reserve Bank credit”) that the debt holds, which was at $8.4 trillion as of Sep 29, according to this release. The concern is such steps may contribute to price bubbles in markets and economic overheating due to excessive risk-taking. The opposite concern is that a quick asset selloff may create a market glut, lowering the cost of raising capital for companies. | Economics & Business | This resolves positive if, by Jan. 1, 2023, assets held by the Fed, according to estimates published here, are below $8 trillion | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-02 | 2021-10-17 | [] | binary | [["2021-10-21", 0.07], ["2021-10-22", 0.155], ["2021-10-22", 0.195], ["2021-10-23", 0.195], ["2021-10-23", 0.22], ["2021-10-23", 0.23], ["2021-10-24", 0.16], ["2021-10-24", 0.188], ["2021-10-24", 0.188], ["2021-10-24", 0.22], ["2021-10-25", 0.246], ["2021-10-25", 0.247], ["2021-10-25", 0.24], ["2021-10-25", 0.24], ["2021-10-25", 0.236], ["2021-10-25", 0.236], ["2021-10-25", 0.255], ["2021-10-26", 0.265], ["2021-10-27", 0.251], ["2021-10-28", 0.251], ["2021-10-28", 0.247], ["2021-10-28", 0.256], ["2021-10-28", 0.252], ["2021-10-30", 0.249], ["2021-10-31", 0.258], ["2021-11-01", 0.258], ["2021-11-02", 0.258], ["2021-11-02", 0.266], ["2021-11-02", 0.266], ["2021-11-04", 0.268], ["2021-11-06", 0.254], ["2021-11-08", 0.259], ["2021-11-14", 0.259], ["2021-11-17", 0.25], ["2021-11-22", 0.25], ["2021-11-23", 0.247], ["2021-11-25", 0.247], ["2021-11-26", 0.244], ["2021-11-26", 0.236], ["2021-11-26", 0.235], ["2021-11-26", 0.234], ["2021-11-27", 0.231], ["2021-11-29", 0.231], ["2021-11-29", 0.224], ["2021-11-29", 0.223], ["2021-11-30", 0.223], ["2021-11-30", 0.22], ["2021-11-30", 0.216], ["2021-11-30", 0.215], ["2021-12-01", 0.214], ["2021-12-01", 0.214], ["2021-12-01", 0.211], ["2021-12-01", 0.208], ["2021-12-01", 0.208], ["2021-12-01", 0.207], ["2021-12-01", 0.202], ["2021-12-01", 0.199], ["2021-12-01", 0.198]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8300/ | The reserve requirement ratio (or RRR) indicates the minimum amount of reserves that must be held by commercial banks, as a percentage of their deposit liabilities. It’s one of several tools used by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and other central banks, to conduct monetary policy. China, for example, is a big fan of the RRR as a policy tool. A rise in the RRR mandates banks to accumulate reserves, removing cash from the economy – which boils down to monetary policy tightening. Besides other measures, the Fed has resorted to using the RRR: in March 2020, as part of its emergency measures suite, it lowered the RRR to 0%. And it’s kept the policy in place since. | Economics & Business | This resolves positive if the Fed here officially announces a rise of its reserve requirements above 0%, before Jan. 1, 2022. This resolves negative if no rise is officially announced here (even if it is, for example, hinted at by Fed officials. | true | 2021-12-01 | Will the Fed raise the RRR this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2021-10-21 | ["https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?programCode=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2023&categories[]=A02XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1¬Adjusted=0&errorData=0#table-results", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8334/us-office-construction-spending-77b-in-2022/#comment-114985"] | binary | [["2021-10-21", 0.17], ["2021-10-23", 0.376], ["2021-10-25", 0.37], ["2021-10-28", 0.371], ["2021-10-30", 0.39], ["2021-11-04", 0.403], ["2021-11-04", 0.392], ["2021-12-07", 0.392], ["2021-12-26", 0.392], ["2022-01-01", 0.392], ["2022-01-04", 0.395], ["2022-01-06", 0.396], ["2022-01-08", 0.387], ["2022-01-10", 0.383], ["2022-01-20", 0.372], ["2022-01-22", 0.37], ["2022-01-26", 0.367], ["2022-01-28", 0.359], ["2022-01-31", 0.351], ["2022-02-01", 0.349], ["2022-02-03", 0.344], ["2022-02-05", 0.342], ["2022-02-08", 0.342], ["2022-02-11", 0.331], ["2022-02-12", 0.331], ["2022-02-14", 0.33], ["2022-02-16", 0.324], ["2022-02-19", 0.324], ["2022-02-24", 0.323], ["2022-02-27", 0.322], ["2022-03-02", 0.322], ["2022-03-04", 0.322], ["2022-03-19", 0.322], ["2022-04-03", 0.321], ["2022-04-03", 0.321], ["2022-04-11", 0.321], ["2022-04-15", 0.316], ["2022-04-20", 0.314], ["2022-04-22", 0.316], ["2022-04-26", 0.317], ["2022-05-11", 0.32], ["2022-05-11", 0.321], ["2022-05-18", 0.319], ["2022-05-19", 0.303], ["2022-06-01", 0.307], ["2022-06-11", 0.307], ["2022-06-14", 0.314], ["2022-06-15", 0.314], ["2022-06-21", 0.317], ["2022-07-05", 0.316], ["2022-07-07", 0.316], ["2022-07-15", 0.315], ["2022-08-10", 0.315], ["2022-08-25", 0.311], ["2022-09-07", 0.309], ["2022-09-09", 0.29], ["2022-09-12", 0.287], ["2022-09-19", 0.287], ["2022-09-23", 0.286], ["2022-09-24", 0.272], ["2022-09-26", 0.269], ["2022-09-29", 0.269], ["2022-10-16", 0.268], ["2022-10-16", 0.269], ["2022-10-22", 0.269], ["2022-10-23", 0.266], ["2022-11-20", 0.265], ["2022-11-25", 0.265], ["2022-11-28", 0.257], ["2022-11-29", 0.246], ["2022-12-02", 0.246], ["2022-12-03", 0.236], ["2022-12-09", 0.235], ["2022-12-11", 0.231], ["2022-12-20", 0.228], ["2022-12-22", 0.228], ["2022-12-25", 0.228], ["2022-12-26", 0.227], ["2022-12-28", 0.225], ["2023-01-01", 0.214], ["2023-01-03", 0.209], ["2023-01-05", 0.204], ["2023-01-07", 0.201], ["2023-01-11", 0.201], ["2023-01-14", 0.201], ["2023-01-17", 0.188], ["2023-01-22", 0.185], ["2023-01-26", 0.185], ["2023-01-28", 0.184], ["2023-02-01", 0.178], ["2023-02-03", 0.172], ["2023-02-05", 0.162], ["2023-02-10", 0.158], ["2023-02-12", 0.158], ["2023-02-15", 0.154], ["2023-02-17", 0.148], ["2023-02-20", 0.148], ["2023-02-23", 0.146], ["2023-02-25", 0.146], ["2023-02-28", 0.122], ["2023-02-28", 0.108]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8334/ | The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that 69% of full-time employed americans were working from home. Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts "it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers."
In March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve positively if the average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending in 2022 is less than $77 Billion according to the US Census Bureau.
Fine Print
This question may resolve after 2023-07-01 to account for revisions by the US Census Bureau. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2021-10-26 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/956/suggest-questions-to-launch/#comment-126001", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore_v._United_States_(2024)", "https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/06/justices-take-up-cases-on-veterans-education-benefits-and-16th-amendment/", "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/moore-v-united-states-3/", "https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/22-800.html", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/22/white-house-releases-state-dinner-guest-list-2/"] | binary | [["2021-10-29", 0.35], ["2021-10-29", 0.4], ["2021-10-29", 0.3], ["2021-10-29", 0.3], ["2021-10-29", 0.292], ["2021-10-29", 0.244], ["2021-10-29", 0.244], ["2021-10-29", 0.217], ["2021-10-29", 0.187], ["2021-10-29", 0.187], ["2021-10-30", 0.234], ["2021-10-30", 0.234], ["2021-10-30", 0.237], ["2021-10-30", 0.222], ["2021-10-30", 0.209], ["2021-10-31", 0.209], ["2021-11-02", 0.194], ["2021-11-02", 0.194], ["2021-11-02", 0.192], ["2021-11-03", 0.219], ["2021-11-03", 0.218], ["2021-11-03", 0.221], ["2021-11-03", 0.221], ["2021-11-04", 0.226], ["2021-11-09", 0.226], ["2021-11-10", 0.216], ["2021-11-10", 0.213], ["2021-11-10", 0.21], ["2021-11-11", 0.223], ["2021-11-11", 0.228], ["2021-11-14", 0.228], ["2021-11-15", 0.219], ["2021-11-15", 0.216], ["2021-11-16", 0.211], ["2021-11-20", 0.205], ["2021-11-21", 0.201], ["2021-11-22", 0.201], ["2021-11-24", 0.198], ["2021-11-24", 0.197], ["2021-12-06", 0.181], ["2021-12-13", 0.178], ["2021-12-21", 0.183], ["2021-12-21", 0.181], ["2021-12-23", 0.178], ["2021-12-24", 0.18], ["2021-12-25", 0.18], ["2021-12-25", 0.174], ["2021-12-25", 0.174], ["2021-12-25", 0.168], ["2021-12-25", 0.168], ["2021-12-26", 0.163], ["2021-12-27", 0.159], ["2021-12-29", 0.157], ["2021-12-29", 0.154], ["2021-12-30", 0.154], ["2021-12-30", 0.155], ["2022-01-01", 0.152], ["2022-01-02", 0.152], ["2022-01-02", 0.151], ["2022-01-02", 0.148], ["2022-01-02", 0.146], ["2022-01-04", 0.146], ["2022-01-04", 0.146], ["2022-01-04", 0.142], ["2022-01-04", 0.14], ["2022-01-04", 0.14], ["2022-01-04", 0.138], ["2022-01-05", 0.137], ["2022-01-06", 0.136], ["2022-01-08", 0.133], ["2022-01-10", 0.133], ["2022-01-10", 0.13], ["2022-01-11", 0.134], ["2022-01-11", 0.133], ["2022-01-11", 0.133], ["2022-01-12", 0.133], ["2022-01-12", 0.133], ["2022-01-18", 0.137], ["2022-01-25", 0.136], ["2022-01-25", 0.136], ["2022-01-25", 0.134], ["2022-01-26", 0.134], ["2022-01-27", 0.133], ["2022-01-28", 0.131], ["2022-01-29", 0.131], ["2022-01-29", 0.128], ["2022-01-30", 0.128], ["2022-01-30", 0.129], ["2022-01-31", 0.129], ["2022-01-31", 0.125], ["2022-01-31", 0.124], ["2022-01-31", 0.124], ["2022-01-31", 0.122], ["2022-01-31", 0.121], ["2022-01-31", 0.12], ["2022-01-31", 0.12], ["2022-01-31", 0.12], ["2022-01-31", 0.118], ["2022-01-31", 0.118]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8405/ | From the New York Times,
After months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.
To squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.
Details of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]
The Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, a federal law is passed requiring at least some citizens in the United States to pay a tax on unrealized capital gains. Unrealized capital gains are defined as asset appreciation values that could in theory be "realized", or sold to yield a profit.
Otherwise, this question resolves negatively | true | 2022-02-01 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-01 | 2021-10-28 | ["https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500", "https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/HWY21FH007.aspx", "https://cleantechnica.com/2022/10/02/tesla-quarterly-sales-charts-rise-again-9-charts/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/18/business/tesla-fatal-crash-texas.html)"] | binary | [["2021-10-31", 0.5], ["2021-10-31", 0.407], ["2021-10-31", 0.407], ["2021-10-31", 0.28], ["2021-11-01", 0.234], ["2021-11-01", 0.223], ["2021-11-01", 0.241], ["2021-11-02", 0.241], ["2021-11-02", 0.3], ["2021-11-02", 0.338], ["2021-11-02", 0.358], ["2021-11-02", 0.366], ["2021-11-02", 0.366], ["2021-11-03", 0.381], ["2021-11-03", 0.399], ["2021-11-03", 0.399], ["2021-11-03", 0.414], ["2021-11-03", 0.416], ["2021-11-04", 0.416], ["2021-11-04", 0.416], ["2021-11-04", 0.388], ["2021-11-05", 0.381], ["2021-11-05", 0.375], ["2021-11-05", 0.373], ["2021-11-05", 0.373], ["2021-11-05", 0.358], ["2021-11-06", 0.35], ["2021-11-06", 0.349], ["2021-11-06", 0.345], ["2021-11-06", 0.334], ["2021-11-06", 0.33], ["2021-11-06", 0.315], ["2021-11-06", 0.31], ["2021-11-06", 0.305], ["2021-11-07", 0.297], ["2021-11-07", 0.288], ["2021-11-07", 0.285], ["2021-11-07", 0.285], ["2021-11-07", 0.262], ["2021-11-07", 0.259], ["2021-11-08", 0.246], ["2021-11-08", 0.246], ["2021-11-09", 0.244], ["2021-11-11", 0.232], ["2021-11-11", 0.229], ["2021-11-11", 0.229], ["2021-11-11", 0.232], ["2021-11-11", 0.232], ["2021-11-11", 0.23], ["2021-11-12", 0.23], ["2021-11-12", 0.228], ["2021-11-12", 0.227], ["2021-11-13", 0.224], ["2021-11-15", 0.225], ["2021-11-15", 0.225], ["2021-11-15", 0.224], ["2021-11-15", 0.224], ["2021-11-16", 0.222], ["2021-11-17", 0.219], ["2021-11-18", 0.219], ["2021-11-19", 0.218], ["2021-11-19", 0.213], ["2021-11-19", 0.21], ["2021-11-21", 0.21], ["2021-12-04", 0.206], ["2021-12-06", 0.206], ["2021-12-06", 0.203], ["2021-12-06", 0.203], ["2021-12-07", 0.203], ["2021-12-07", 0.203], ["2021-12-07", 0.203], ["2021-12-08", 0.203], ["2021-12-10", 0.204], ["2021-12-14", 0.204], ["2021-12-15", 0.204], ["2021-12-15", 0.207], ["2021-12-19", 0.207], ["2021-12-20", 0.206], ["2021-12-20", 0.206], ["2021-12-21", 0.203], ["2021-12-25", 0.201], ["2021-12-25", 0.201], ["2021-12-26", 0.199], ["2021-12-26", 0.199], ["2021-12-26", 0.198], ["2021-12-27", 0.2], ["2021-12-27", 0.2], ["2021-12-29", 0.2], ["2021-12-30", 0.2], ["2021-12-30", 0.2], ["2021-12-30", 0.198], ["2021-12-30", 0.199], ["2021-12-30", 0.2], ["2021-12-30", 0.202], ["2021-12-30", 0.2], ["2021-12-31", 0.196], ["2021-12-31", 0.193], ["2021-12-31", 0.19], ["2021-12-31", 0.19], ["2021-12-31", 0.191], ["2021-12-31", 0.193]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8444/ | In early 2020, US automaker Tesla, Inc. became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.
In October 2021, Tesla became a trillion-dollar company, after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company one of the most valuable in the world. Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Google parent Alphabet. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2023, Tesla is credibly reported by reputable financial media sources (e.g. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The Nikkei) to be the world's most-valuable publicly-traded corporation by market capitalization. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur | true | 2022-01-01 | Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-08 | 2021-10-29 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-01", 0.55], ["2021-11-01", 0.495], ["2021-11-01", 0.493], ["2021-11-01", 0.493], ["2021-11-02", 0.495], ["2021-11-02", 0.478], ["2021-11-02", 0.478], ["2021-11-02", 0.483], ["2021-11-02", 0.481], ["2021-11-02", 0.481], ["2021-11-03", 0.509], ["2021-11-04", 0.509], ["2021-11-04", 0.507], ["2021-11-05", 0.507], ["2021-11-06", 0.519], ["2021-11-06", 0.522], ["2021-11-06", 0.526], ["2021-11-09", 0.532], ["2021-11-11", 0.522], ["2021-11-11", 0.526], ["2021-11-18", 0.526], ["2021-11-26", 0.524], ["2021-11-26", 0.51], ["2021-11-26", 0.508], ["2021-11-26", 0.508], ["2021-11-28", 0.531], ["2021-11-28", 0.531], ["2021-11-28", 0.542], ["2021-11-28", 0.542], ["2021-11-28", 0.548], ["2021-11-29", 0.548], ["2021-11-29", 0.548], ["2021-12-02", 0.551], ["2021-12-06", 0.553], ["2021-12-06", 0.556], ["2021-12-07", 0.558], ["2021-12-07", 0.558], ["2021-12-08", 0.564], ["2021-12-08", 0.563], ["2021-12-08", 0.578]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8454/ | On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a "Plan B" to manage COVID if "a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed."
According to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following:
Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport)
Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops.
Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases.
Plan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so. | Politics & Governance | This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 February 2022, that "Plan B" will be implemented in all of the UK.
For positive resolution, plan B would have to include at least the three measures mentioned in Johnson's 14 September plan: use of vaccine passports for high-risk settings, legally mandated use of face coverings in certain settings, and clear/urgent communication to the public.
Also see this question on whether "Plan C" measures will be announced.
Fine Print
Asking people to work from home, or other more severe measures, are not needed for positive resolution. Just the three outlined above are needed for positive resolution.
This resolves as the date implementation of "Plan B" is announced, not the date it goes into effect.
Note that many of the components of Plan B are already in effect in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. For positive resolution, the three components of Plan B would have to be implemented in all of the UK, including England. | true | 2022-01-01 | Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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According to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following:
Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport)
Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops.
Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases.
Plan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so.
Media reports indicate there might also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan reportedly might include a ban on inter-household mixing. | Politics & Governance | This will resolve positively if the UK Government announces, before 1 February 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in "Plan B" will be implemented in all of the UK. For the purposes of this question, this should include at least two additional measures — for instance, a ban on inter-household mixing and closing of pubs.
Also see this question on whether "Plan B" measures will be announced.
Fine Print
Asking people to work from home would not count as one of the two additional measures, since this might fall under Plan B.
Clarification added 12 December: Note that many of the components more severe than those of "Plan B" may already be in effect in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland before the UK announces measures for England, or vice versa. For positive resolution, measures more stringent than those in "Plan B" would have to have been announced in all of the UK — for instance, through multiple announcements. This question resolves as the date that of the last announcement that makes it so that stringent measures have been announced everywhere in the UK. | true | 2022-01-01 | Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
Such restrictions must applicable to all people in England, not just to certain groups — e.g., restrictions that apply to mixing with households that have members who are 65+ but not to mixing with households with no older people would not count toward positive resolution. | true | 2021-12-01 | Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-12-22 | 2021-11-03 | ["https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Sza1tbSxFZEaRZHFa_n25aKoVeYIuWcejDHUy0dYuA/edit?usp=sharing", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-forecasts-did-and-what-well-be-thinking-about-for-2022/", "https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1593692161236664322?t=aoiFlhFzF_0oV6QMNPA_dA&s=19", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/politics-podcast/", "https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1593692161236664322", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/data-webpage-data/datasets/polls.zip", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/)", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/senate_polls.csv", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/data-webpage-data/datasets/election-forecasts-2022.zip", "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NY-General-Poll-Report-1004.pdf", "https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1568357028325629952?t=Zt9Nwu_k0ct9rhTsCFRVtg&s=19", "https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1568356782912798726?t=qFA4NjiMUeim97gyBPBxBQ&s=19"] | binary | [["2021-11-18", 0.3], ["2021-11-19", 0.402], ["2021-11-19", 0.397], ["2021-11-20", 0.388], ["2021-11-21", 0.381], ["2021-11-25", 0.385], ["2021-11-27", 0.382], ["2021-11-27", 0.382], ["2021-12-07", 0.394], ["2021-12-11", 0.392], ["2021-12-11", 0.394], ["2022-01-01", 0.389], ["2022-01-02", 0.391], ["2022-01-03", 0.387], ["2022-01-08", 0.387], ["2022-01-12", 0.388], ["2022-01-19", 0.397], ["2022-01-21", 0.399], ["2022-02-04", 0.4], ["2022-02-13", 0.4], ["2022-02-14", 0.4], ["2022-02-18", 0.402], ["2022-02-24", 0.402], ["2022-02-26", 0.401], ["2022-02-26", 0.397], ["2022-02-28", 0.399], ["2022-03-02", 0.398], ["2022-03-02", 0.391], ["2022-03-04", 0.39], ["2022-03-05", 0.39], ["2022-03-05", 0.389], ["2022-03-07", 0.392], ["2022-03-12", 0.392], ["2022-03-15", 0.379], ["2022-03-15", 0.378], ["2022-04-03", 0.378], ["2022-04-27", 0.378], ["2022-04-29", 0.377], ["2022-05-03", 0.379], ["2022-05-04", 0.38], ["2022-05-05", 0.378], ["2022-05-11", 0.378], ["2022-05-25", 0.378], ["2022-06-11", 0.377], ["2022-06-12", 0.369], ["2022-06-12", 0.368], ["2022-06-14", 0.368], ["2022-06-21", 0.368], ["2022-06-27", 0.369], ["2022-07-04", 0.367], ["2022-07-21", 0.367], ["2022-07-23", 0.361], ["2022-07-24", 0.359], ["2022-07-26", 0.37], ["2022-07-26", 0.37], ["2022-08-06", 0.371], ["2022-08-07", 0.373], ["2022-08-09", 0.372], ["2022-08-11", 0.368], ["2022-08-16", 0.365], ["2022-08-22", 0.366], ["2022-08-25", 0.366], ["2022-09-10", 0.367], ["2022-09-12", 0.37], ["2022-09-13", 0.372], ["2022-09-14", 0.375], ["2022-09-15", 0.374], ["2022-09-17", 0.376], ["2022-09-21", 0.378], ["2022-09-23", 0.377], ["2022-09-24", 0.381], ["2022-09-25", 0.381], ["2022-09-26", 0.381], ["2022-10-01", 0.381], ["2022-10-06", 0.38], ["2022-10-07", 0.379], ["2022-10-09", 0.377], ["2022-10-11", 0.38], ["2022-10-12", 0.379], ["2022-10-14", 0.377], ["2022-10-15", 0.376], ["2022-10-16", 0.376], ["2022-10-17", 0.376], ["2022-10-18", 0.374], ["2022-10-19", 0.375], ["2022-10-20", 0.374], ["2022-10-20", 0.383], ["2022-10-22", 0.384], ["2022-10-24", 0.384], ["2022-10-25", 0.384], ["2022-10-26", 0.385], ["2022-10-28", 0.385], ["2022-10-28", 0.388], ["2022-10-29", 0.39], ["2022-10-30", 0.39], ["2022-10-31", 0.392], ["2022-11-01", 0.391], ["2022-11-05", 0.391], ["2022-11-06", 0.394], ["2022-11-07", 0.399], ["2022-11-08", 0.399]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8484/ | Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some have argued that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others have suggested that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses.
Trafalgar Group is a polling firm that does polling for state and national elections. They have been criticized by some political forecasters as inaccurate or biased toward conservatives. However, after the 2020 election FiveThirtyEight upgraded Trafalgar from a C- pollster rating to an A-, and in a podcast episode Nate Silver apologized to Trafalgar for prior off the cuff remarks.
If there is a systemic polling bias that underweights the chances of Republican candidates, one possible test might be to compare the performance of the FiveThirtyEight polling average in 2022 to the performance of a polling firm which some view as right-biased, like Trafalgar Group. | Politics & Governance | Resolution will be determined by comparing the performance of the most recent poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for each of the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections in the 2022 elections taking place on November 8, 2022, to the 538 polling average on the day after the final day of the corresponding Trafalgar poll. The difference between the top two candidates by final vote share will be compared to the difference between those candidates in the FiveThirtyEight polling average and final Trafalgar Polls. The average absolute value of the difference between actual result and polling will be calculated for each. If the Trafalgar Group average difference is closer to zero than that of FiveThirtyEight then this resolves positively.
Races where Trafalgar Group does not produce a poll within one month of the election date will not be included in the average. In the event the average difference for FiveThirtyEight and Trafalgar Group is the same this resolves ambiguously.
Resolution Example Using Fake Numbers:
Suppose for three races the final results were as follows, where positive values mean the Democrat was ahead of the Republican in the final results and polls. TG stands for Trafalgar Group.
Race Final Result TG Final Poll TG Error 538 Polling Avg 538 Error
A +2.3 +1.5 0.8 +3.1 0.8
B +1.2 -1.1 2.3 +2.5 1.3
C -3.4 -1.2 2.2 -4.0 0.6
Based on the above the average error of the Trafalgar Group would be 1.77 and the average error of the FiveThirtyEight polling average would be 0.90. If the example were all of the elections being counted this question would resolve negatively since the FiveThirtyEight error is closer to zero | true | 2022-11-08 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-03 | 2021-11-04 | ["https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/fca-announces-decision-synthetic-us-dollar-libor", "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230403005491/en/U.K.-Financial-Conduct-Authority-to-Require-ICE-Benchmark-Administration-to-Publish-%E2%80%9CSynthetic%E2%80%9D-U.S.-Dollar-LIBOR"] | binary | [["2021-11-21", 0.26], ["2021-11-21", 0.26], ["2021-11-22", 0.387], ["2021-11-23", 0.387], ["2021-11-23", 0.378], ["2021-11-23", 0.382], ["2021-11-24", 0.382], ["2021-11-24", 0.408], ["2021-11-25", 0.408], ["2021-11-26", 0.408], ["2021-12-02", 0.425], ["2021-12-07", 0.425], ["2022-01-12", 0.428], ["2022-01-13", 0.428], ["2022-02-19", 0.431], ["2022-02-26", 0.435], ["2022-03-02", 0.435], ["2022-03-30", 0.435], ["2022-04-03", 0.436], ["2022-04-04", 0.443], ["2022-05-04", 0.443], ["2022-05-21", 0.443], ["2022-10-16", 0.451], ["2022-10-20", 0.445], ["2022-12-20", 0.445], ["2023-01-05", 0.449], ["2023-01-06", 0.45], ["2023-01-07", 0.45], ["2023-01-20", 0.456], ["2023-01-20", 0.455], ["2023-01-22", 0.455], ["2023-01-23", 0.458], ["2023-01-23", 0.46], ["2023-02-28", 0.459], ["2023-03-01", 0.459], ["2023-03-09", 0.461], ["2023-03-13", 0.438], ["2023-03-16", 0.439]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8499/ | Libor, the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people went to jail for manipulating Libor, sometimes so blatantly that it was hilarious. In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.
In the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).
Contracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but announced a delay in September, for a "synthetic" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until January 1, 2023, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from July 1, 2023. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve as Yes if, by June 30, 2023, ICE Benchmark Association announces any further delay in the phasing out of Libor rates. This question will resolve as Yes even if the delay involves a so-called “synthetic” methodology so that the rate is no longer representative of the underlying market | true | 2023-06-30 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-06-01 | 2021-11-05 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-08", 0.07], ["2021-11-09", 0.428], ["2021-11-09", 0.478], ["2021-11-11", 0.49], ["2021-11-12", 0.518], ["2021-11-13", 0.539], ["2021-11-15", 0.55], ["2021-11-15", 0.55], ["2021-11-16", 0.535], ["2021-11-17", 0.531], ["2021-11-18", 0.545], ["2021-11-20", 0.545], ["2021-11-21", 0.55], ["2021-11-22", 0.552], ["2021-11-23", 0.578], ["2021-11-24", 0.572], ["2021-11-25", 0.576], ["2021-11-26", 0.582], ["2021-11-27", 0.582], ["2021-11-28", 0.589], ["2021-11-29", 0.592], ["2021-11-30", 0.614], ["2021-12-01", 0.61], ["2021-12-02", 0.604], ["2021-12-03", 0.6], ["2021-12-04", 0.592], ["2021-12-06", 0.592], ["2021-12-07", 0.586], ["2021-12-07", 0.582], ["2021-12-08", 0.551], ["2021-12-09", 0.528], ["2021-12-10", 0.524], ["2021-12-12", 0.524], ["2021-12-13", 0.508], ["2021-12-15", 0.509], ["2021-12-15", 0.502], ["2021-12-20", 0.496], ["2021-12-21", 0.488], ["2021-12-22", 0.374], ["2021-12-22", 0.366], ["2021-12-24", 0.36], ["2021-12-24", 0.352], ["2021-12-28", 0.345], ["2021-12-30", 0.343], ["2021-12-30", 0.339], ["2021-12-31", 0.335], ["2022-01-01", 0.332], ["2022-01-02", 0.332], ["2022-01-02", 0.32], ["2022-01-03", 0.322], ["2022-01-05", 0.314], ["2022-01-05", 0.307], ["2022-01-07", 0.304], ["2022-01-08", 0.305], ["2022-01-09", 0.3], ["2022-01-10", 0.3], ["2022-01-11", 0.293], ["2022-01-12", 0.288], ["2022-01-16", 0.288], ["2022-01-17", 0.285], ["2022-01-23", 0.285], ["2022-01-23", 0.266], ["2022-01-24", 0.248], ["2022-01-26", 0.248], ["2022-01-27", 0.247], ["2022-01-28", 0.245], ["2022-02-01", 0.241], ["2022-02-01", 0.241], ["2022-02-02", 0.233], ["2022-02-03", 0.232], ["2022-02-04", 0.232], ["2022-02-05", 0.225], ["2022-02-06", 0.225], ["2022-02-06", 0.221], ["2022-02-09", 0.221], ["2022-02-13", 0.22], ["2022-02-14", 0.217], ["2022-02-16", 0.217], ["2022-02-16", 0.217], ["2022-02-18", 0.216], ["2022-02-18", 0.218], ["2022-02-21", 0.218], ["2022-02-23", 0.218], ["2022-02-24", 0.218], ["2022-02-26", 0.21], ["2022-02-27", 0.207], ["2022-02-27", 0.205], ["2022-03-01", 0.205], ["2022-03-02", 0.205], ["2022-03-03", 0.204], ["2022-03-05", 0.202], ["2022-03-06", 0.203], ["2022-03-08", 0.202], ["2022-03-10", 0.193], ["2022-03-11", 0.193], ["2022-03-12", 0.19], ["2022-03-13", 0.19], ["2022-03-14", 0.19], ["2022-03-16", 0.189], ["2022-03-17", 0.182], ["2022-03-18", 0.122]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8513/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | It has been a little over one year since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a disputed regional election and decades of tension. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been reversed — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have advanced into neighboring regions, namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are within 200 miles of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an alliance with other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans.
Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?
Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022:
the National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front
who are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces
and who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia | true | 2022-03-18 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-01 | 2021-11-06 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-08", 0.45], ["2021-11-08", 0.45], ["2021-11-08", 0.617], ["2021-11-08", 0.623], ["2021-11-08", 0.69], ["2021-11-08", 0.686], ["2021-11-08", 0.71], ["2021-11-09", 0.717], ["2021-11-09", 0.73], ["2021-11-09", 0.73], ["2021-11-09", 0.751], ["2021-11-10", 0.726], ["2021-11-10", 0.738], ["2021-11-10", 0.739], ["2021-11-11", 0.72], ["2021-11-11", 0.707], ["2021-11-11", 0.715], ["2021-11-12", 0.718], ["2021-11-13", 0.718], ["2021-11-13", 0.722], ["2021-11-14", 0.729], ["2021-11-14", 0.729], ["2021-11-14", 0.739], ["2021-11-14", 0.744], ["2021-11-14", 0.748], ["2021-11-15", 0.748], ["2021-11-15", 0.738], ["2021-11-15", 0.737], ["2021-11-15", 0.737], ["2021-11-15", 0.737], ["2021-11-15", 0.729], ["2021-11-15", 0.709], ["2021-11-16", 0.7], ["2021-11-16", 0.7], ["2021-11-16", 0.703], ["2021-11-16", 0.697], ["2021-11-16", 0.69], ["2021-11-16", 0.691], ["2021-11-16", 0.682], ["2021-11-17", 0.674], ["2021-11-17", 0.674], ["2021-11-20", 0.677], ["2021-11-21", 0.677], ["2021-11-22", 0.68], ["2021-11-23", 0.683], ["2021-11-24", 0.676], ["2021-11-27", 0.678], ["2021-11-27", 0.674], ["2021-11-27", 0.674], ["2021-11-28", 0.673], ["2021-11-28", 0.663], ["2021-11-28", 0.658], ["2021-12-01", 0.658], ["2021-12-01", 0.645], ["2021-12-02", 0.643], ["2021-12-03", 0.643], ["2021-12-04", 0.628], ["2021-12-04", 0.628], ["2021-12-04", 0.621], ["2021-12-05", 0.618], ["2021-12-06", 0.617], ["2021-12-06", 0.617], ["2021-12-07", 0.611], ["2021-12-07", 0.611], ["2021-12-07", 0.606], ["2021-12-08", 0.588], ["2021-12-08", 0.587], ["2021-12-08", 0.587], ["2021-12-08", 0.575], ["2021-12-08", 0.573], ["2021-12-09", 0.561], ["2021-12-09", 0.553], ["2021-12-09", 0.55], ["2021-12-09", 0.544], ["2021-12-09", 0.544], ["2021-12-10", 0.566], ["2021-12-10", 0.566], ["2021-12-10", 0.567], ["2021-12-11", 0.567], ["2021-12-11", 0.56], ["2021-12-12", 0.56], ["2021-12-12", 0.555], ["2021-12-12", 0.554], ["2021-12-12", 0.554], ["2021-12-13", 0.552], ["2021-12-13", 0.555], ["2021-12-14", 0.552], ["2021-12-15", 0.552], ["2021-12-17", 0.538], ["2021-12-17", 0.506], ["2021-12-17", 0.502], ["2021-12-17", 0.502], ["2021-12-17", 0.463], ["2021-12-17", 0.449], ["2021-12-18", 0.455], ["2021-12-18", 0.453], ["2021-12-18", 0.453], ["2021-12-18", 0.434], ["2021-12-18", 0.442], ["2021-12-18", 0.443], ["2021-12-18", 0.443]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8517/ | It has been a little over one year since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a disputed regional election and decades of tension. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been reversed — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have advanced into neighboring regions, namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are within 200 miles of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an alliance with other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans.
The A1 trunk route between Addis Ababa and Djibouti is a strategic highway link, which Tigrayan forces say they are trying to cut off. Given that Ethiopia is land-locked, the port in Djibouti is the main conduit of trade for the country. | Security & Defense | Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before 2022:
armed conflict is ongoing between the TPLF and forces aligned with Abiy Ahmed Ali or his de facto successor
AND
the A1 trunk route between Addis Ababa and Djibouti:
is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front for any contiguous 24h period
OR
is for security reasons largely impassible without the co-operation of armed forces aligned with the TPLF for any contiguous 120h period
*If the A1 is seized or made impassible at any time before the end of 2021, the contiguous 24h and 120h periods may extend into 2022. | true | 2021-12-18 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-03-21 | 2021-11-06 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-08", 0.43], ["2021-11-08", 0.465], ["2021-11-08", 0.465], ["2021-11-08", 0.448], ["2021-11-09", 0.446], ["2021-11-10", 0.446], ["2021-11-11", 0.44], ["2021-11-13", 0.44], ["2021-11-13", 0.425], ["2021-11-16", 0.425], ["2021-11-16", 0.416], ["2021-11-17", 0.416], ["2021-11-21", 0.408], ["2021-11-21", 0.408], ["2021-11-23", 0.408], ["2021-11-23", 0.43], ["2021-11-24", 0.419], ["2021-12-04", 0.419], ["2021-12-07", 0.389], ["2021-12-08", 0.392], ["2021-12-08", 0.388], ["2021-12-09", 0.38], ["2021-12-09", 0.37], ["2021-12-09", 0.37], ["2021-12-09", 0.363], ["2021-12-10", 0.363], ["2021-12-10", 0.358], ["2021-12-10", 0.357], ["2021-12-11", 0.359], ["2021-12-12", 0.359], ["2021-12-13", 0.36], ["2021-12-15", 0.353], ["2021-12-15", 0.353], ["2021-12-18", 0.344], ["2021-12-18", 0.348], ["2021-12-19", 0.348], ["2021-12-19", 0.34], ["2021-12-19", 0.345], ["2021-12-19", 0.343], ["2021-12-19", 0.341], ["2021-12-19", 0.341], ["2021-12-19", 0.338], ["2021-12-19", 0.336], ["2021-12-19", 0.333], ["2021-12-19", 0.332], ["2021-12-19", 0.325], ["2021-12-19", 0.32], ["2021-12-20", 0.318], ["2021-12-20", 0.316], ["2021-12-20", 0.316]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8524/ | The Biden administration’s “Build Back Better” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes.
In the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals worth more than $600, purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was raised to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000.
Banking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision.
This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives | true | 2021-12-20 | Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-01 | 2021-11-06 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-06", 0.38], ["2021-11-07", 0.507], ["2021-11-07", 0.507], ["2021-11-07", 0.492], ["2021-11-07", 0.51], ["2021-11-07", 0.565], ["2021-11-07", 0.586], ["2021-11-07", 0.624], ["2021-11-07", 0.657], ["2021-11-07", 0.659], ["2021-11-07", 0.699], ["2021-11-07", 0.724], ["2021-11-08", 0.724], ["2021-11-08", 0.724], ["2021-11-08", 0.716], ["2021-11-08", 0.716], ["2021-11-08", 0.722], ["2021-11-08", 0.725], ["2021-11-08", 0.728], ["2021-11-08", 0.734], ["2021-11-08", 0.742], ["2021-11-08", 0.741], ["2021-11-08", 0.742], ["2021-11-08", 0.751], ["2021-11-08", 0.754], ["2021-11-08", 0.757], ["2021-11-08", 0.757], ["2021-11-08", 0.772], ["2021-11-08", 0.772], ["2021-11-09", 0.789], ["2021-11-09", 0.79], ["2021-11-09", 0.8], ["2021-11-09", 0.8], ["2021-11-09", 0.798], ["2021-11-09", 0.801], ["2021-11-09", 0.812], ["2021-11-09", 0.813], ["2021-11-09", 0.807], ["2021-11-09", 0.801], ["2021-11-09", 0.801], ["2021-11-09", 0.783], ["2021-11-09", 0.779], ["2021-11-09", 0.779], ["2021-11-09", 0.765], ["2021-11-09", 0.761], ["2021-11-09", 0.756], ["2021-11-09", 0.758], ["2021-11-09", 0.752], ["2021-11-10", 0.748], ["2021-11-10", 0.748], ["2021-11-10", 0.746], ["2021-11-10", 0.744], ["2021-11-10", 0.74], ["2021-11-10", 0.74], ["2021-11-10", 0.738], ["2021-11-10", 0.739], ["2021-11-10", 0.74], ["2021-11-10", 0.74], ["2021-11-10", 0.737], ["2021-11-10", 0.737], ["2021-11-10", 0.736], ["2021-11-10", 0.736], ["2021-11-11", 0.736], ["2021-11-11", 0.737], ["2021-11-11", 0.735], ["2021-11-11", 0.734], ["2021-11-11", 0.73], ["2021-11-11", 0.732], ["2021-11-11", 0.732], ["2021-11-11", 0.734], ["2021-11-11", 0.735], ["2021-11-11", 0.732], ["2021-11-11", 0.73], ["2021-11-11", 0.725], ["2021-11-12", 0.722], ["2021-11-12", 0.722], ["2021-11-12", 0.722], ["2021-11-12", 0.722], ["2021-11-12", 0.72], ["2021-11-12", 0.72], ["2021-11-12", 0.721], ["2021-11-12", 0.721], ["2021-11-12", 0.727], ["2021-11-13", 0.725], ["2021-11-13", 0.723], ["2021-11-13", 0.722], ["2021-11-13", 0.721], ["2021-11-13", 0.719], ["2021-11-13", 0.717], ["2021-11-13", 0.715], ["2021-11-13", 0.713], ["2021-11-13", 0.713], ["2021-11-13", 0.711], ["2021-11-13", 0.714], ["2021-11-13", 0.714], ["2021-11-13", 0.713], ["2021-11-13", 0.709], ["2021-11-13", 0.706], ["2021-11-14", 0.706], ["2021-11-14", 0.706], ["2021-11-14", 0.705]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8525/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Elon Musk tweeted on November 6th 2021,
Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock.
Do you support this?
I will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes
As of the time of writing this question, "Yes" is winning by 55.6% to 44.4%.
Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?
This question resolves positively if before July 1st 2022 credible media reports that Elon Musk has sold more than 5% of his Tesla shares, as compared to the number of shares he owned at the time of his Twitter poll, after taking into account stock dilution and stock splits which may occur in the meantime. If Musk gains additional shares in the company (eg. by exercising stock options), he will need to sell an additional amount to reach the 5% decrease at the time of the twitter poll. | true | 2021-11-14 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-03-24 | 2021-11-08 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fata\u2026"] | binary | [["2021-11-11", 0.63], ["2021-11-11", 0.553], ["2021-11-11", 0.565], ["2021-11-11", 0.565], ["2021-11-11", 0.587], ["2021-11-11", 0.589], ["2021-11-12", 0.587], ["2021-11-12", 0.622], ["2021-11-12", 0.622], ["2021-11-12", 0.659], ["2021-11-12", 0.628], ["2021-11-12", 0.634], ["2021-11-12", 0.624], ["2021-11-13", 0.626], ["2021-11-13", 0.626], ["2021-11-13", 0.632], ["2021-11-13", 0.606], ["2021-11-13", 0.606], ["2021-11-13", 0.58], ["2021-11-13", 0.58], ["2021-11-14", 0.563], ["2021-11-14", 0.565], ["2021-11-14", 0.564], ["2021-11-14", 0.571], ["2021-11-16", 0.576], ["2021-11-16", 0.577], ["2021-11-17", 0.577], ["2021-11-20", 0.578], ["2021-11-23", 0.581], ["2021-11-25", 0.587], ["2021-11-25", 0.584], ["2021-11-26", 0.585], ["2021-11-27", 0.586], ["2021-11-27", 0.593], ["2021-11-28", 0.596], ["2021-12-04", 0.596], ["2021-12-04", 0.593], ["2021-12-08", 0.593], ["2021-12-15", 0.598], ["2021-12-15", 0.602], ["2021-12-17", 0.602], ["2022-01-01", 0.612], ["2022-01-06", 0.611], ["2022-01-07", 0.613], ["2022-01-07", 0.613], ["2022-01-08", 0.612], ["2022-01-26", 0.613], ["2022-02-10", 0.613], ["2022-02-10", 0.617], ["2022-02-10", 0.617], ["2022-02-14", 0.617], ["2022-02-19", 0.616], ["2022-02-19", 0.62], ["2022-02-28", 0.623], ["2022-03-01", 0.624], ["2022-03-01", 0.624], ["2022-03-02", 0.627], ["2022-03-03", 0.626], ["2022-03-04", 0.626], ["2022-03-07", 0.627], ["2022-03-08", 0.63], ["2022-03-10", 0.631], ["2022-03-10", 0.638], ["2022-03-10", 0.638], ["2022-03-10", 0.643], ["2022-03-10", 0.644], ["2022-03-10", 0.644], ["2022-03-11", 0.646], ["2022-03-11", 0.648], ["2022-03-11", 0.651], ["2022-03-12", 0.653], ["2022-03-12", 0.654], ["2022-03-12", 0.659], ["2022-03-13", 0.659], ["2022-03-14", 0.662], ["2022-03-16", 0.665], ["2022-03-19", 0.664], ["2022-03-19", 0.664], ["2022-03-22", 0.663], ["2022-03-24", 0.666], ["2022-03-24", 0.666]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8534/ | This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
According to a BBC article released on 19-10-2021:
"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster."
See also a list of North Korean missile tests. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if a missile (ICBM) with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)
Note that:
The missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice
Either a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution
For positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is capable of hosting a nuclear warhead
See also:
*[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fata… | true | 2023-03-10 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-10-27 | 2021-11-08 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8535/nprs-reaction-on-weapons-employment-by-ai/#comment-106303", "https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3202438/dod-releases-national-defense-strategy-missile-defense-nuclear-posture-reviews/", "https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF", "https://www.defense.gov/National-Defense-Strategy/]."] | binary | [["2021-11-11", 0.5], ["2021-11-11", 0.5], ["2021-11-11", 0.247], ["2021-11-11", 0.332], ["2021-11-11", 0.406], ["2021-11-11", 0.416], ["2021-11-11", 0.43], ["2021-11-12", 0.432], ["2021-11-12", 0.441], ["2021-11-12", 0.441], ["2021-11-12", 0.462], ["2021-11-12", 0.462], ["2021-11-12", 0.456], ["2021-11-12", 0.481], ["2021-11-12", 0.447], ["2021-11-13", 0.447], ["2021-11-13", 0.419], ["2021-11-13", 0.419], ["2021-11-13", 0.415], ["2021-11-13", 0.419], ["2021-11-14", 0.404], ["2021-11-15", 0.404], ["2021-11-15", 0.391], ["2021-11-16", 0.371], ["2021-11-16", 0.371], ["2021-11-17", 0.371], ["2021-11-17", 0.353], ["2021-12-04", 0.362], ["2021-12-04", 0.362], ["2021-12-08", 0.356], ["2021-12-08", 0.356], ["2021-12-10", 0.356], ["2021-12-10", 0.354], ["2021-12-11", 0.354], ["2021-12-11", 0.354], ["2021-12-15", 0.36], ["2021-12-15", 0.361], ["2021-12-15", 0.361], ["2022-02-01", 0.36], ["2022-02-02", 0.36], ["2022-02-19", 0.354], ["2022-02-19", 0.353], ["2022-03-04", 0.356], ["2022-03-04", 0.352], ["2022-03-04", 0.352], ["2022-03-09", 0.352], ["2022-03-10", 0.346], ["2022-03-11", 0.348], ["2022-03-15", 0.348], ["2022-03-15", 0.342], ["2022-03-18", 0.342], ["2022-03-27", 0.335], ["2022-03-27", 0.335], ["2022-04-01", 0.337], ["2022-04-27", 0.329], ["2022-04-27", 0.327], ["2022-04-28", 0.327], ["2022-04-29", 0.321], ["2022-04-29", 0.32], ["2022-05-11", 0.322], ["2022-05-19", 0.316], ["2022-05-24", 0.313], ["2022-06-11", 0.315], ["2022-06-17", 0.318], ["2022-06-17", 0.314], ["2022-06-17", 0.315], ["2022-06-18", 0.315], ["2022-06-18", 0.315], ["2022-06-19", 0.315], ["2022-06-20", 0.317], ["2022-07-01", 0.317], ["2022-07-02", 0.318], ["2022-07-06", 0.313], ["2022-07-15", 0.313], ["2022-07-25", 0.313], ["2022-07-26", 0.31], ["2022-07-27", 0.31], ["2022-07-27", 0.309], ["2022-07-27", 0.308], ["2022-08-04", 0.302], ["2022-08-23", 0.302], ["2022-09-17", 0.31], ["2022-10-03", 0.31], ["2022-10-03", 0.305], ["2022-10-11", 0.305], ["2022-10-16", 0.302], ["2022-10-16", 0.304]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8535/ | This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic. | Security & Defense | This question resolves positively if the next Nuclear Posture Review (released between the time of this question opening and 31-12-2023) includes clear affirmation that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans.
This question resolves ambiguously if a new Nuclear Posture Review is not publicly available by 2024 (but that seems very unlikely) | true | 2023-12-31 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-04-04 | 2021-11-08 | ["https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm", "https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession", "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_67375.htm", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/", "https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1630109120388026369", "https://twitter.com/AP/status/1575854017795719168"] | binary | [["2021-11-18", 0.35], ["2021-11-22", 0.232], ["2021-11-27", 0.23], ["2021-12-03", 0.23], ["2021-12-08", 0.221], ["2021-12-17", 0.221], ["2021-12-28", 0.22], ["2021-12-28", 0.218], ["2022-01-05", 0.217], ["2022-01-10", 0.216], ["2022-01-19", 0.212], ["2022-01-21", 0.221], ["2022-01-30", 0.22], ["2022-02-04", 0.22], ["2022-02-09", 0.226], ["2022-02-11", 0.217], ["2022-02-15", 0.215], ["2022-02-19", 0.218], ["2022-02-22", 0.22], ["2022-02-26", 0.28], ["2022-03-01", 0.34], ["2022-03-04", 0.37], ["2022-03-09", 0.389], ["2022-03-12", 0.39], ["2022-03-17", 0.392], ["2022-03-20", 0.393], ["2022-03-26", 0.397], ["2022-04-06", 0.397], ["2022-04-12", 0.518], ["2022-04-17", 0.577], ["2022-04-21", 0.577], ["2022-04-26", 0.604], ["2022-04-29", 0.604], ["2022-05-05", 0.609], ["2022-05-11", 0.608], ["2022-05-14", 0.628], ["2022-05-20", 0.655], ["2022-05-23", 0.655], ["2022-05-29", 0.703], ["2022-06-01", 0.709], ["2022-06-07", 0.709], ["2022-06-12", 0.724], ["2022-06-15", 0.724], ["2022-06-18", 0.731], ["2022-06-23", 0.731], ["2022-06-28", 0.733], ["2022-07-03", 0.804], ["2022-07-09", 0.82], ["2022-07-15", 0.824], ["2022-07-22", 0.825], ["2022-07-26", 0.83], ["2022-07-30", 0.83], ["2022-08-02", 0.832], ["2022-08-19", 0.833], ["2022-08-23", 0.836], ["2022-09-14", 0.836], ["2022-09-19", 0.837], ["2022-09-21", 0.837], ["2022-09-29", 0.837], ["2022-10-02", 0.84], ["2022-10-06", 0.841], ["2022-10-11", 0.843], ["2022-10-16", 0.842], ["2022-10-23", 0.842], ["2022-10-27", 0.843], ["2022-10-31", 0.844], ["2022-11-06", 0.844], ["2022-11-09", 0.845], ["2022-11-14", 0.844], ["2022-11-18", 0.844], ["2022-11-21", 0.845], ["2022-11-26", 0.848], ["2022-11-30", 0.849], ["2022-12-05", 0.849], ["2022-12-10", 0.849], ["2022-12-12", 0.849], ["2022-12-20", 0.849], ["2022-12-22", 0.847], ["2022-12-27", 0.847], ["2022-12-30", 0.85], ["2023-01-03", 0.849], ["2023-01-07", 0.851], ["2023-01-12", 0.847], ["2023-01-14", 0.847], ["2023-01-18", 0.846], ["2023-01-23", 0.835], ["2023-01-28", 0.827], ["2023-02-01", 0.824], ["2023-02-05", 0.823], ["2023-02-08", 0.821], ["2023-02-12", 0.82], ["2023-02-18", 0.821], ["2023-02-25", 0.821], ["2023-03-02", 0.821], ["2023-03-07", 0.818], ["2023-03-09", 0.819], ["2023-03-15", 0.822], ["2023-03-19", 0.834], ["2023-03-24", 0.835], ["2023-03-30", 0.837], ["2023-04-04", 0.844]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8549/ | Wikipedia states:
"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]
Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024." | Security & Defense | The question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, any state formally joins NATO. This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution | true | 2023-12-31 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-04-01 | 2021-11-08 | ["https://peaceandsecurityindex.org,", "https://maps.foundationcenter.org/#/list/?subjects=SS1060&popgroups=all&years=2022&location=6295630&excludeLocation=0&geoScale=ADM0&layer=recip&boundingBox=-139.219,-31.354,135,66.513&gmOrgs=all&recipOrgs=all&tags=all&keywords=&pathwaysOrg=&pathwaysType=&acct=psfg&typesOfSupport=all&transactionTypes=all&amtRanges=all&minGrantAmt=0&maxGrantAmt=0&gmTypes=all&minAssetsAmt=0&maxAssetsAmt=0&minGivingAmt=0&maxGivingAmt=0&andOr=0&includeGov=1&custom=all&customArea=all&indicator=&dataSource=oecd&chartType=trends&multiSubject=1&listType=gm&windRoseAnd=undefined&zoom=2", "https://www.longview.org/nuclear/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8551/open-philanthropys-2022-nuclear-risk-grants/#comment-118915", "https://peaceandsecurityindex.org", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2022/11/14/sam-bankman-fried-promised-millions-to-nonprofits-research-groups-thats-not-going-too-well-now/", "https://maps.foundationcenter.org/#/list/?subjects=SS1060&popgroups=all&years=2022&location=6295630&excludeLocation=0&geoScale=ADM0&layer=recip&boundingBox=-139.219,-31.354,135,66.513&gmOrgs=all&recipOrgs=all&tags=all&keywords=&pathwaysOrg=&pathwaysType=&acct=psfg&typesOfSupport=all&transactionTypes=all&amtRanges=all&minGrantAmt=0&maxGrantAmt=0&gmTypes=all&minAssetsAmt=0&maxAssetsAmt=0&minGivingAmt=0&maxGivingAmt=0&andOr=0&includeGov=1&custom=all&customArea=all&indicator=&dataSource=oecd&chartType=trends&multiSubject=1&listType=gm&windRoseAnd=undefined&zoom=2", "https://www.longview.org/nuclear/", "https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2022/11/14/sam-bankman-fried-promised-millions-to-nonprofits-research-groups-thats-not-going-too-well-now/?sh=31158a035ee8", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8551/open-philanthropys-2022-nuclear-risk-grants/"] | binary | [["2021-11-18", 0.4], ["2021-11-18", 0.4], ["2021-11-18", 0.225], ["2021-11-18", 0.2], ["2021-11-19", 0.2], ["2021-11-19", 0.246], ["2021-11-20", 0.222], ["2021-11-20", 0.214], ["2021-11-20", 0.206], ["2021-11-21", 0.197], ["2021-11-22", 0.185], ["2021-11-23", 0.185], ["2021-11-23", 0.184], ["2021-11-23", 0.229], ["2021-11-23", 0.242], ["2021-12-04", 0.242], ["2021-12-04", 0.252], ["2021-12-04", 0.253], ["2021-12-05", 0.253], ["2021-12-06", 0.291], ["2021-12-06", 0.299], ["2021-12-06", 0.302], ["2021-12-07", 0.311], ["2021-12-07", 0.311], ["2021-12-07", 0.311], ["2022-01-27", 0.311], ["2022-02-01", 0.334], ["2022-02-02", 0.335], ["2022-02-04", 0.334], ["2022-02-06", 0.329], ["2022-02-08", 0.332], ["2022-02-08", 0.332], ["2022-02-08", 0.338], ["2022-02-09", 0.339], ["2022-02-09", 0.339], ["2022-02-09", 0.349], ["2022-02-10", 0.351], ["2022-02-14", 0.351], ["2022-02-14", 0.351], ["2022-02-14", 0.351], ["2022-02-19", 0.352], ["2022-02-19", 0.35], ["2022-02-19", 0.345], ["2022-02-19", 0.345], ["2022-02-19", 0.346], ["2022-02-22", 0.346], ["2022-02-23", 0.346], ["2022-02-24", 0.345], ["2022-02-24", 0.345], ["2022-02-26", 0.346], ["2022-02-26", 0.345], ["2022-02-26", 0.346], ["2022-02-27", 0.345], ["2022-02-27", 0.344], ["2022-02-27", 0.343], ["2022-02-28", 0.343], ["2022-02-28", 0.341], ["2022-03-01", 0.35], ["2022-03-02", 0.35], ["2022-03-02", 0.346], ["2022-03-03", 0.352], ["2022-03-03", 0.352], ["2022-03-03", 0.349], ["2022-03-08", 0.354], ["2022-03-08", 0.356], ["2022-03-13", 0.36], ["2022-03-16", 0.357], ["2022-03-16", 0.358], ["2022-03-18", 0.359], ["2022-03-18", 0.359], ["2022-03-20", 0.36], ["2022-03-20", 0.347], ["2022-03-20", 0.35], ["2022-03-20", 0.351], ["2022-03-20", 0.334], ["2022-03-20", 0.334], ["2022-03-20", 0.336], ["2022-03-20", 0.354], ["2022-03-20", 0.349], ["2022-03-21", 0.35], ["2022-03-21", 0.352], ["2022-03-21", 0.352], ["2022-03-21", 0.352], ["2022-03-21", 0.359], ["2022-03-21", 0.359], ["2022-03-21", 0.367]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8553/ | This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
As far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:
The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)
Since 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year
No other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)
I base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012. | Security & Defense | This question resolves positively if, by 31 March 2023, credible sources indicate that a donor that is not a government (and not one of the aforementioned Carnegie and MacArthur foundations) has in 2022 given out more than $10 million in grants that the donor sees as primarily relevant to nuclear weapons risks (including proliferation, disarmament, etc.). These sources could include a foundation's own grants database, the Peace and Security Funding Map data (with an additional check to ensure the grants are indeed related to nuclear risk[2]), or news sources. It is not necessary that all such sources show that this has happened (though they shouldn't explicit deny that it has happened), since some sources may simply fail to report things or be out of date.
Footnote
[1] To see the relevant data, go to https://peaceandsecurityindex.org, click "Start searching", select "Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues" from "SUBJECT AREA", and click "List". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking "U.S. Federal Funders".
[2] Unfortunately, the Peace and Security Funding Map tracks under "Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues" many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term "nuclear". These include medical research grants that use the term "nuclear" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Therefore, if the only credible source that can be found that suggests this question should resolve positively if this source, I'll check whether it does indeed appear that the funder made >$10m in nuclear risk related grants, and I'll explain my reasoning publicly and invite criticism | true | 2022-03-21 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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Rittenhouse was subsequently charged with multiple felonies in connection with these events, and is currently on trial. Rittenhouse is presumed innocent until proven guilty, and has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges.
Rittenhouse is charged with two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, one count of attempted first-degree homicide, two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety, and one misdemeanour count of possession of a dangerous weapon by a person under age 18. This misdemeanour charge is not relevant to this question, but is mentioned here for completeness. | Security & Defense | This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2022, Rittenhouse is convicted on any of the previously enumerated felony charges against him. These are the two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, the single count of attempted first-degree homicide, and the two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety. A conviction on any other charges, felony or misdemeanour, is irrelevant to the resolution of this question.
The question will resolve negatively if this does not happen, including if there is a mistrial and any subsequent retrial on these charges does not result in a conviction on at least one of the felony charges before January 1, 2022.
This question closes retroactively to the moment the jury are instructed to deliberate on any felony charge in this case, or the moment the jury is directed to deliver a particular verdict on any felony charge, or the moment all felony charges are dismissed, or the moment any plea on a felony charge is changed to guilty, whichever happens earlier.
Note that this question is strictly a prediction as to what will happen, and not a statement or assertion in relation to Rittenhouse's actual guilt or innocence | true | 2021-11-15 | Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-11-17 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-restricts-patient-philanthropy-by-2023/#comment-110131", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/6595/actions", "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/6595/cosponsors", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/10/tom-reed-resigns-setting-up-a-second-special-election-00031499", "https://www.philanthropy.com/article/washington-update-what-nonprofits-can-expect-from-congress-this-year?emailConfirmed=true&email=contact.schoenegger%40gmail.com&success=false&bc_nonce=xisx6v7cqzs9313v52c6w&cid=gen_sign_in"] | binary | [["2021-11-21", 0.66], ["2021-11-21", 0.5], ["2021-11-22", 0.492], ["2021-11-22", 0.492], ["2021-11-22", 0.316], ["2021-11-23", 0.316], ["2021-11-23", 0.268], ["2021-11-23", 0.237], ["2021-11-24", 0.198], ["2021-11-24", 0.198], ["2021-11-24", 0.163], ["2021-11-25", 0.15], ["2021-11-26", 0.15], ["2021-11-27", 0.147], ["2021-11-29", 0.138], ["2021-11-29", 0.14], ["2021-12-02", 0.141], ["2021-12-07", 0.136], ["2021-12-15", 0.096], ["2022-01-03", 0.096], ["2022-01-05", 0.115], ["2022-01-06", 0.115], ["2022-01-14", 0.116], ["2022-02-13", 0.113], ["2022-02-14", 0.112], ["2022-02-14", 0.113], ["2022-02-19", 0.113], ["2022-02-25", 0.112], ["2022-02-26", 0.129], ["2022-03-12", 0.13], ["2022-04-03", 0.131], ["2022-04-04", 0.131], ["2022-04-06", 0.131], ["2022-04-27", 0.139], ["2022-04-28", 0.138], ["2022-05-03", 0.15], ["2022-05-05", 0.148], ["2022-05-11", 0.149], ["2022-05-14", 0.149], ["2022-06-11", 0.151], ["2022-06-11", 0.151], ["2022-06-12", 0.151], ["2022-06-12", 0.177], ["2022-06-14", 0.177], ["2022-06-21", 0.177], ["2022-06-29", 0.2], ["2022-06-30", 0.2], ["2022-07-06", 0.202], ["2022-07-07", 0.202], ["2022-07-07", 0.203], ["2022-07-09", 0.203], ["2022-07-10", 0.204], ["2022-07-26", 0.198], ["2022-07-27", 0.197], ["2022-08-16", 0.2], ["2022-08-17", 0.2], ["2022-08-22", 0.199], ["2022-09-23", 0.197], ["2022-09-23", 0.196], ["2022-09-26", 0.195], ["2022-10-07", 0.195], ["2022-10-08", 0.191], ["2022-10-08", 0.19], ["2022-10-16", 0.19], ["2022-10-17", 0.191], ["2022-10-22", 0.181], ["2022-10-23", 0.181], ["2022-11-05", 0.181], ["2022-11-05", 0.175], ["2022-11-06", 0.175], ["2022-11-10", 0.173], ["2022-11-15", 0.169], ["2022-12-05", 0.169], ["2022-12-06", 0.174], ["2022-12-07", 0.174], ["2022-12-11", 0.179], ["2022-12-11", 0.18], ["2022-12-12", 0.18], ["2022-12-14", 0.179], ["2022-12-16", 0.179], ["2022-12-16", 0.172], ["2022-12-17", 0.172], ["2022-12-17", 0.166], ["2022-12-17", 0.162], ["2022-12-22", 0.162], ["2022-12-22", 0.165], ["2022-12-23", 0.162], ["2022-12-24", 0.153], ["2022-12-24", 0.151], ["2022-12-24", 0.151], ["2022-12-26", 0.151], ["2022-12-29", 0.147], ["2022-12-29", 0.143], ["2022-12-29", 0.14], ["2022-12-29", 0.14], ["2022-12-30", 0.135], ["2022-12-30", 0.135], ["2022-12-30", 0.132], ["2022-12-30", 0.108], ["2022-12-31", 0.108], ["2022-12-31", 0.102]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8663/ | Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges.
On June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or "ACE Act". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found here and the full text is here. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2022 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:
Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive.
Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive.
This question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the Patient Philanthropy Fund and adjacent projects. It is a shorter term companion to this question. In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome | true | 2022-12-31 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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There's a current Metaculus question asking whether a majority of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Australia, India, Japan) and the Five Eyes (US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada) will absolutely boycott the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, China.
On November 16, 2021, Josh Rogin at the Washington Post wrote that the United States was planning to diplomatically boycott the Olympics instead of having a complete one. On November 18, 2021, President Biden has said the US is considering such a boycott. This is where this question comes in.
A diplomatic boycott is when a country sends no heads of state or government officials / dignitaries to the Olympic games, but still sends their athletes to compete under the banner of the country. | Politics & Governance | The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.
The question will resolve positively if at least four of following nations participate in a diplomatic boycott (or absolute boycott) of the games, and negatively if three or fewer boycott:
Australia
Canada
India
Japan
New Zealand
United Kingdom
United States
The question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.
For this question, a diplomatic boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing as officially representing their country, but WITHOUT sending any government officials to attend | true | 2021-12-03 | Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-08-31 | 2021-11-22 | ["https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-moderna-pfizer-biontech-bivalent-covid-19-vaccines-use", "https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-moderna-pfizer-biontech-bivalent-covid-19-vaccines-use"] | binary | [["2021-12-08", 0.75], ["2021-12-09", 0.732], ["2021-12-09", 0.71], ["2021-12-11", 0.7], ["2021-12-13", 0.69], ["2021-12-13", 0.677], ["2021-12-14", 0.656], ["2021-12-15", 0.652], ["2021-12-16", 0.655], ["2021-12-16", 0.683], ["2021-12-18", 0.683], ["2021-12-19", 0.688], ["2021-12-21", 0.691], ["2021-12-22", 0.694], ["2021-12-23", 0.707], ["2021-12-28", 0.705], ["2021-12-29", 0.706], ["2021-12-30", 0.706], ["2021-12-31", 0.714], ["2022-01-01", 0.713], ["2022-01-03", 0.712], ["2022-01-03", 0.712], ["2022-01-06", 0.71], ["2022-01-06", 0.713], ["2022-01-10", 0.708], ["2022-01-20", 0.708], ["2022-01-22", 0.696], ["2022-01-22", 0.692], ["2022-01-27", 0.689], ["2022-01-31", 0.686], ["2022-02-01", 0.688], ["2022-02-03", 0.688], ["2022-02-09", 0.697], ["2022-02-11", 0.696], ["2022-02-14", 0.695], ["2022-02-16", 0.692], ["2022-02-17", 0.685], ["2022-02-18", 0.684], ["2022-02-20", 0.684], ["2022-02-21", 0.704], ["2022-02-22", 0.709], ["2022-02-23", 0.711], ["2022-02-23", 0.711], ["2022-02-24", 0.713], ["2022-02-25", 0.722], ["2022-02-27", 0.723], ["2022-03-01", 0.716], ["2022-03-02", 0.716], ["2022-03-03", 0.716], ["2022-03-04", 0.712], ["2022-03-05", 0.711], ["2022-03-06", 0.716], ["2022-03-06", 0.722], ["2022-03-08", 0.722], ["2022-03-09", 0.723], ["2022-03-10", 0.723], ["2022-03-15", 0.723], ["2022-03-16", 0.72], ["2022-03-18", 0.722], ["2022-03-18", 0.722], ["2022-03-21", 0.723], ["2022-03-29", 0.736], ["2022-03-30", 0.738], ["2022-03-31", 0.743], ["2022-04-03", 0.745], ["2022-04-04", 0.746], ["2022-04-05", 0.748], ["2022-04-09", 0.749], ["2022-04-14", 0.75], ["2022-04-14", 0.74], ["2022-04-20", 0.74], ["2022-04-20", 0.743], ["2022-05-05", 0.743], ["2022-05-11", 0.742], ["2022-05-12", 0.741], ["2022-05-12", 0.74], ["2022-05-13", 0.751], ["2022-05-19", 0.754], ["2022-05-21", 0.753], ["2022-05-21", 0.757], ["2022-06-07", 0.76], ["2022-06-08", 0.753], ["2022-06-09", 0.758], ["2022-06-11", 0.758], ["2022-06-11", 0.758], ["2022-06-21", 0.76], ["2022-06-22", 0.759], ["2022-06-27", 0.759], ["2022-06-28", 0.761], ["2022-07-06", 0.761], ["2022-07-07", 0.761], ["2022-07-09", 0.762], ["2022-07-14", 0.764], ["2022-07-26", 0.768], ["2022-07-26", 0.773], ["2022-07-27", 0.773], ["2022-08-22", 0.774], ["2022-08-22", 0.776], ["2022-08-23", 0.776], ["2022-08-28", 0.775], ["2022-08-29", 0.775]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8728/ | Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.
On 19 November 2021, FDA authorized COVID-19 boosters for all U.S. adults — these boosters constitute second doses for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and they constitute third doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.
Some have suggested that COVID-19 is now transitioning to a seasonal endemic state and that this might necessitate seasonal yearly boosters. | Healthcare & Biology | This will resolve positively if FDA authorizes additional booster doses for the entire U.S. adult population — this would mean a third dose for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and fourth doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination | true | 2022-12-31 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-13 | 2021-11-23 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/", "http://yanglab.qd.sdu.edu.cn/", "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.24.513506v1?rss=1", "https://twitter.com/d_kihara/status/1601638521139126272?t=_1NgRuHAhR2w73IhLnlFwA&s=19", "https://twitter.com/d_kihara/status/1601638521139126272?t=_1NgRuHAhR2w73IhLnlFwA&s=19", "https://twitter.com/FreddolinoLab/status/1601668585973501953", "https://twitter.com/DeepMind/status/1601600157371535365", "https://twitter.com/MartinPacesa/status/1601511762356228096", "https://twitter.com/MartinPacesa/status/1601559010674495488", "https://www.eventbrite.com/e/casp15-tickets-405898973757", "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10801/discontinuing-the-final-forecast-bonus/", "https://twitter.com/sokrypton/status/1593436645403070465?t=csEOQ0SGHPsvavREJPjYAA&s=19", "https://predictioncenter.org/casp15/doc/CASP15_Abstracts.pdf"] | binary | [["2021-12-08", 0.64], ["2021-12-10", 0.649], ["2021-12-14", 0.649], ["2021-12-16", 0.651], ["2021-12-18", 0.635], ["2021-12-20", 0.635], ["2022-01-05", 0.634], ["2022-01-06", 0.657], ["2022-01-12", 0.657], ["2022-01-15", 0.654], ["2022-01-17", 0.716], ["2022-01-19", 0.748], ["2022-01-20", 0.757], ["2022-01-26", 0.756], ["2022-01-30", 0.753], ["2022-02-01", 0.743], ["2022-02-02", 0.743], ["2022-02-07", 0.741], ["2022-02-10", 0.737], ["2022-02-12", 0.736], ["2022-02-14", 0.736], ["2022-02-18", 0.735], ["2022-02-27", 0.735], ["2022-03-02", 0.737], ["2022-03-04", 0.737], ["2022-03-06", 0.738], ["2022-03-07", 0.74], ["2022-03-18", 0.74], ["2022-03-20", 0.74], ["2022-03-23", 0.74], ["2022-03-25", 0.74], ["2022-03-27", 0.74], ["2022-03-31", 0.741], ["2022-04-01", 0.743], ["2022-04-03", 0.743], ["2022-04-11", 0.745], ["2022-04-11", 0.745], ["2022-04-17", 0.741], ["2022-05-03", 0.739], ["2022-05-09", 0.741], ["2022-05-11", 0.74], ["2022-06-07", 0.726], ["2022-06-11", 0.727], ["2022-06-12", 0.729], ["2022-06-15", 0.731], ["2022-06-18", 0.731], ["2022-06-21", 0.732], ["2022-07-03", 0.732], ["2022-07-08", 0.73], ["2022-07-08", 0.731], ["2022-07-11", 0.732], ["2022-07-14", 0.737], ["2022-07-16", 0.737], ["2022-07-19", 0.742], ["2022-07-22", 0.745], ["2022-07-23", 0.745], ["2022-07-24", 0.747], ["2022-07-26", 0.747], ["2022-07-29", 0.745], ["2022-07-31", 0.745], ["2022-08-02", 0.75], ["2022-08-05", 0.751], ["2022-08-06", 0.774], ["2022-08-08", 0.791], ["2022-08-10", 0.791], ["2022-08-11", 0.797], ["2022-08-14", 0.797], ["2022-08-16", 0.797], ["2022-08-18", 0.807], ["2022-08-20", 0.807], ["2022-08-22", 0.814], ["2022-08-23", 0.814], ["2022-08-25", 0.817], ["2022-08-27", 0.82], ["2022-08-29", 0.821], ["2022-08-31", 0.821], ["2022-09-05", 0.823], ["2022-09-07", 0.827], ["2022-09-13", 0.828], ["2022-09-14", 0.827], ["2022-09-17", 0.826], ["2022-09-18", 0.828], ["2022-09-20", 0.829], ["2022-09-21", 0.83], ["2022-09-26", 0.83], ["2022-09-27", 0.832], ["2022-10-02", 0.833], ["2022-10-04", 0.834], ["2022-10-06", 0.836], ["2022-10-08", 0.836], ["2022-10-11", 0.838], ["2022-10-12", 0.839], ["2022-10-16", 0.839], ["2022-10-17", 0.837], ["2022-10-19", 0.837], ["2022-10-20", 0.838], ["2022-10-22", 0.838], ["2022-10-24", 0.837], ["2022-10-26", 0.835], ["2022-10-28", 0.834], ["2022-10-30", 0.847]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8729/ | The Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction, or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at CASP14 in 2020 with an even bigger improvement.
Alphabet looks eager to continue applying AI to biochemical problems, given the recent introduction of a new subsidiary company called Isomorphic Labs to focus on the drug discovery process.
CASP15 is currently scheduled to take place April-August 2022. | Science & Tech | This will resolve positively if an algorithm developed by a subsidiary of Alphabet (such as DeepMind or Isomorphic Labs) wins the CASP15 group rankings for Regular Targets, or whichever name is given to the general/overall category. The preferred source will be the official CASP website. If there is no comparable "general category" compared to CASP14 and prior, or if there is no singular winner, the question will resolve ambiguously.
This question will resolve negatively if the competition is held but no Alphabet company competes, or they don't win. If CASP15 is not held in 2022, or overall rankings are not decided, this resolves as ambiguous. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the contest begins | true | 2022-10-31 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-11-27 | [] | binary | [["2021-11-27", 0.38], ["2021-11-30", 0.424], ["2021-12-01", 0.425], ["2021-12-04", 0.43], ["2021-12-06", 0.437], ["2021-12-09", 0.426], ["2021-12-12", 0.425], ["2021-12-16", 0.419], ["2021-12-18", 0.419], ["2021-12-21", 0.42], ["2021-12-25", 0.418], ["2021-12-27", 0.415], ["2021-12-29", 0.415], ["2022-01-01", 0.415], ["2022-01-04", 0.411], ["2022-01-05", 0.409], ["2022-01-09", 0.402], ["2022-01-11", 0.404], ["2022-01-13", 0.397], ["2022-01-17", 0.395], ["2022-01-19", 0.394], ["2022-01-22", 0.394], ["2022-01-24", 0.393], ["2022-01-28", 0.393], ["2022-01-31", 0.391], ["2022-02-02", 0.381], ["2022-02-09", 0.381], ["2022-02-12", 0.379], ["2022-02-16", 0.372], ["2022-02-20", 0.369], ["2022-02-25", 0.367], ["2022-02-28", 0.367], ["2022-03-02", 0.341], ["2022-03-07", 0.338], ["2022-03-10", 0.328], ["2022-03-14", 0.327], ["2022-03-17", 0.323], ["2022-03-22", 0.322], ["2022-03-24", 0.322], ["2022-03-27", 0.319], ["2022-03-31", 0.312], ["2022-04-03", 0.311], ["2022-04-05", 0.307], ["2022-04-08", 0.298], ["2022-04-10", 0.295], ["2022-04-13", 0.294], ["2022-04-17", 0.292], ["2022-04-20", 0.292], ["2022-04-24", 0.292], ["2022-04-27", 0.291], ["2022-05-01", 0.286], ["2022-05-03", 0.286], ["2022-05-13", 0.286], ["2022-05-16", 0.285], ["2022-06-08", 0.285], ["2022-06-12", 0.284], ["2022-06-15", 0.283], ["2022-06-21", 0.283], ["2022-06-28", 0.282], ["2022-07-08", 0.278], ["2022-07-10", 0.276], ["2022-07-13", 0.276], ["2022-07-15", 0.274], ["2022-07-23", 0.274], ["2022-07-26", 0.272], ["2022-07-29", 0.269], ["2022-08-02", 0.268], ["2022-08-04", 0.266], ["2022-08-19", 0.264], ["2022-08-22", 0.261], ["2022-08-30", 0.259], ["2022-09-05", 0.259], ["2022-09-06", 0.258], ["2022-09-13", 0.257], ["2022-09-16", 0.257], ["2022-09-18", 0.255], ["2022-09-21", 0.236], ["2022-09-23", 0.233], ["2022-09-27", 0.227], ["2022-10-01", 0.227], ["2022-10-03", 0.227], ["2022-10-07", 0.227], ["2022-10-11", 0.223], ["2022-10-14", 0.221], ["2022-10-16", 0.22], ["2022-11-05", 0.22], ["2022-11-05", 0.218], ["2022-11-14", 0.218], ["2022-11-18", 0.217], ["2022-11-25", 0.217], ["2022-11-28", 0.217], ["2022-12-01", 0.216], ["2022-12-04", 0.215], ["2022-12-07", 0.214], ["2022-12-11", 0.213], ["2022-12-14", 0.208], ["2022-12-16", 0.208], ["2022-12-20", 0.206], ["2022-12-27", 0.203], ["2022-12-31", 0.142], ["2022-12-31", 0.14]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8752/ | On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:
New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility
B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)
B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing)
Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces
Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility
See also these three assessments by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.
The U.S. CDC currently defines four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants: variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.
Of these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that “has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”
Moreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:
Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets
Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease
Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics
More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations
To date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve positive if, before 2023, the Omicron variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page.
Fine Print
Thank you to Nathan Young, Clay Graubard, David Manheim, Philipp Schoenegger, and Edward Saperia for their question suggestions and input. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-08-15 | 2021-11-27 | ["https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-bivalent-covid-19-booster-vaccine-approved-by-uk-medicines-regulator", "https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Medicines-and-Healthcare-Products-Regulatory-Agency-MHRA-Authorizes-Modernas-Omicron-Containing-Bivalent-Booster-in-the-UK/default.aspx", "https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moderna-Announces-Clinical-Update-on-Bivalent-COVID-19-Booster-Platform/default.aspx", "https://www.ft.com/content/ffde06e6-afc2-40c0-be45-ed50a61afe7f", "https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/07/moderna-to-make-two-different-omicron-boosters-one-for-us-another-for-uk-eu/"] | binary | [["2021-11-27", 0.39], ["2021-11-29", 0.617], ["2021-12-01", 0.655], ["2021-12-03", 0.672], ["2021-12-04", 0.689], ["2021-12-06", 0.721], ["2021-12-08", 0.724], ["2021-12-10", 0.724], ["2021-12-13", 0.723], ["2021-12-15", 0.725], ["2021-12-17", 0.727], ["2021-12-20", 0.73], ["2021-12-22", 0.734], ["2021-12-24", 0.734], ["2021-12-26", 0.738], ["2021-12-28", 0.735], ["2021-12-30", 0.735], ["2022-01-01", 0.737], ["2022-01-05", 0.737], ["2022-01-07", 0.737], ["2022-01-10", 0.736], ["2022-01-12", 0.739], ["2022-01-14", 0.743], ["2022-01-17", 0.743], ["2022-01-18", 0.746], ["2022-01-21", 0.748], ["2022-01-23", 0.748], ["2022-01-25", 0.748], ["2022-01-27", 0.749], ["2022-01-29", 0.75], ["2022-01-31", 0.751], ["2022-02-05", 0.751], ["2022-02-06", 0.75], ["2022-02-10", 0.75], ["2022-02-12", 0.749], ["2022-02-14", 0.75], ["2022-02-17", 0.75], ["2022-02-18", 0.748], ["2022-02-21", 0.748], ["2022-02-24", 0.748], ["2022-02-27", 0.748], ["2022-03-02", 0.748], ["2022-03-06", 0.748], ["2022-03-09", 0.748], ["2022-03-11", 0.748], ["2022-03-14", 0.747], ["2022-03-16", 0.749], ["2022-03-19", 0.747], ["2022-03-22", 0.747], ["2022-03-25", 0.747], ["2022-03-30", 0.748], ["2022-04-01", 0.749], ["2022-04-03", 0.749], ["2022-04-04", 0.751], ["2022-04-06", 0.75], ["2022-04-08", 0.746], ["2022-04-10", 0.743], ["2022-04-12", 0.742], ["2022-04-14", 0.741], ["2022-04-17", 0.74], ["2022-04-19", 0.74], ["2022-04-22", 0.744], ["2022-04-25", 0.742], ["2022-04-26", 0.742], ["2022-04-30", 0.738], ["2022-05-02", 0.739], ["2022-05-04", 0.737], ["2022-05-07", 0.737], ["2022-05-09", 0.736], ["2022-05-11", 0.736], ["2022-05-13", 0.735], ["2022-05-17", 0.735], ["2022-05-24", 0.735], ["2022-05-25", 0.735], ["2022-06-01", 0.735], ["2022-06-03", 0.732], ["2022-06-08", 0.732], ["2022-06-10", 0.739], ["2022-06-12", 0.738], ["2022-06-14", 0.739], ["2022-06-16", 0.739], ["2022-06-19", 0.738], ["2022-06-21", 0.737], ["2022-06-28", 0.738], ["2022-06-30", 0.75], ["2022-07-03", 0.752], ["2022-07-05", 0.752], ["2022-07-08", 0.757], ["2022-07-11", 0.758], ["2022-07-14", 0.762], ["2022-07-16", 0.763], ["2022-07-18", 0.764], ["2022-07-20", 0.765], ["2022-07-22", 0.766], ["2022-07-24", 0.763], ["2022-07-26", 0.764], ["2022-08-02", 0.764], ["2022-08-04", 0.765], ["2022-08-07", 0.765], ["2022-08-13", 0.765], ["2022-08-14", 0.765]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8754/ | On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:
New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility
B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)
B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing)
Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces
Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility
See also these three assessments by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.
Some have suggested that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines may have to be updated to target the Omicron variant in particular, given that its unique constellation of mutations may result in lower vaccine- and infection-elicited antibody neutralization. Vaccine producers including Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen, and Novavax have said they are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Moderna has announced it is advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve on the basis of whether the U.S. FDA, UK MHRA, or EU EMA authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023.
An Omicron-specific booster must be specially formulated to specifically target the genetic sequence of the Omicron variant.
The booster dose formulation can also include formulations that target other variants (e.g., Delta) so long as the Omicron variant is specifically targeted as well.
Multi-valent booster candidates, such those being developed by Moderna, would count toward positive resolution so long as they target at least 8 spike mutations that Omicron has accrued relative to the original Wuhan-Hu-1 sequence. In the case of Moderna, this would mean that: the mRNA-1273.211 multi-valent candidate that targets 4 of Omicron's spike mutations would not count toward positive resolution, while the mRNA-1273.213 multi-valent candidate that targets 8 of Omicron's spike mutations would count.
Fine Print
Thank you to Nathan Young, Clay Graubard, David Manheim, Philipp Schoenegger, and Edward Saperia for their question suggestions and input. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
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New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility
B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)
B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing)
Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces
Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility
See also these three assessments by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.
There is concern that Omicron might be deadlier than Delta. | Healthcare & Biology | This will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is greater than that due to infection with the Delta variant.
The relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for.
At least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance increase, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant increase.
Also see this question on whether the Omicron variant will be less lethal than Delta.
Fine Print
Thank you to Nathan Young, Clay Graubard, David Manheim, Philipp Schoenegger, and Edward Saperia for their question suggestions and input. | true | 2022-02-01 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | metaculus | 0 |
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Of these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that “has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”
Moreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:
Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets
Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease
Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics
More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations
To date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve positive if, before 1 March 2022, a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page.
Fine Print
Thank you to Nathan Young, Clay Graubard, David Manheim, Philipp Schoenegger, and Edward Saperia for their question suggestions and input. | true | 2022-02-01 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility
B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)
B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing)
Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces
Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility
See also these three assessments by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively. | Healthcare & Biology | This will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is less than that due to infection with the Delta variant.
The relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for.
At least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant decrease (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance decrease, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant decrease.
Also see this question on whether the Omicron variant will be more lethal than Delta | true | 2022-02-01 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | metaculus | 1 |
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On October 25, President Biden announced a Presidential Proclamation titled “A Proclamation on Advancing the Safe Resumption of Global Travel During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” This proclamation, which took effect at 12:01 am Eastern Standard Time on November 8, 2021, ended the travel restrictions under Presidential Proclamations (P.P.) 9984, 9992, 10143, and 10199 as they relate to the suspension of entry into the United States of persons physically present in Brazil, China, India, Iran, Ireland, the Schengen Area, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. In place of these restrictions, the President announced a global vaccination requirement for all adult foreign national travelers.
There is now concern that travel from the Schengen Area will again be suspended given the detection of the new Omicron variant there.
[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. issue a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?
This resolves positively if, on or before 15 December 2021, a presidential proclamation is made that suspends travel from the entire Schengen Area or at least 20/26 of Schengen Area countries.
A suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not need apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. | true | 2021-12-10 | [Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? | metaculus | 0 |
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In November 2021, it was reported that SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk had warned employees that the company "face[s] genuine risk of bankruptcy if we cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year," amid struggles in mass-producing Raptor engines for the company's nascent Starship series of launch vehicles. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if SpaceX files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.
Only petitions filed by Space Exploration Technologies Corp, or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of SpaceX's business (as judged by moderators) as of November 2021, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count | true | 2022-04-20 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-08 | 2021-12-06 | [] | binary | [["2021-12-08", 0.01], ["2021-12-09", 0.015], ["2021-12-09", 0.017], ["2021-12-09", 0.015], ["2021-12-09", 0.014], ["2021-12-09", 0.019], ["2021-12-09", 0.019], ["2021-12-09", 0.091], ["2021-12-09", 0.091], ["2021-12-09", 0.078], ["2021-12-09", 0.075], ["2021-12-09", 0.075], ["2021-12-09", 0.071], ["2021-12-09", 0.063], ["2021-12-09", 0.059], ["2021-12-09", 0.056], ["2021-12-09", 0.054], ["2021-12-09", 0.054], ["2021-12-09", 0.05], ["2021-12-09", 0.049], ["2021-12-09", 0.045], ["2021-12-09", 0.045], ["2021-12-09", 0.045], ["2021-12-09", 0.048], ["2021-12-09", 0.048], ["2021-12-09", 0.048], ["2021-12-09", 0.048], ["2021-12-09", 0.045], ["2021-12-09", 0.044], ["2021-12-09", 0.044], ["2021-12-09", 0.043], ["2021-12-09", 0.043], ["2021-12-09", 0.041], ["2021-12-09", 0.047], ["2021-12-09", 0.047], ["2021-12-09", 0.046], ["2021-12-09", 0.045], ["2021-12-09", 0.045], ["2021-12-09", 0.044], ["2021-12-09", 0.044], ["2021-12-09", 0.043], ["2021-12-09", 0.043], ["2021-12-09", 0.042], ["2021-12-09", 0.042], ["2021-12-10", 0.042], ["2021-12-10", 0.042], ["2021-12-10", 0.041], ["2021-12-10", 0.04], ["2021-12-10", 0.04], ["2021-12-10", 0.04], ["2021-12-10", 0.039], ["2021-12-10", 0.039], ["2021-12-10", 0.038], ["2021-12-10", 0.038], ["2021-12-10", 0.038], ["2021-12-10", 0.038], ["2021-12-10", 0.037], ["2021-12-10", 0.035], ["2021-12-10", 0.035], ["2021-12-10", 0.035], ["2021-12-10", 0.034], ["2021-12-10", 0.035], ["2021-12-11", 0.037], ["2021-12-11", 0.035], ["2021-12-11", 0.034], ["2021-12-11", 0.034], ["2021-12-11", 0.034], ["2021-12-12", 0.034], ["2021-12-12", 0.033], ["2021-12-12", 0.033], ["2021-12-12", 0.033], ["2021-12-12", 0.032], ["2021-12-13", 0.032], ["2021-12-13", 0.032], ["2021-12-13", 0.031], ["2021-12-15", 0.031], ["2021-12-15", 0.031], ["2021-12-16", 0.031], ["2021-12-16", 0.031], ["2021-12-17", 0.03], ["2021-12-18", 0.03], ["2021-12-20", 0.03], ["2021-12-20", 0.03], ["2021-12-23", 0.029], ["2021-12-30", 0.029], ["2021-12-31", 0.032], ["2021-12-31", 0.032], ["2021-12-31", 0.032], ["2022-01-01", 0.032], ["2022-01-01", 0.031], ["2022-01-03", 0.031], ["2022-01-05", 0.031], ["2022-01-06", 0.03], ["2022-01-07", 0.032], ["2022-01-07", 0.032], ["2022-01-07", 0.032], ["2022-01-07", 0.032], ["2022-01-07", 0.032], ["2022-01-07", 0.032], ["2022-01-08", 0.032], ["2022-01-08", 0.031]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8815/ | In December 2021, it was reported that China’s Yutu 2 rover has imaged a "mystery object" on the horizon in Von Kármán crater on the far side of the moon.
The object is described as 'cube-shaped,' and was imaged at a distance of around 80 metres (260 ft). Space.com reports that "Team scientists have expressed a strong interest in the object and Yutu 2 is now expected to spend the next 2-3 lunar days (2-3 Earth months) traversing lunar regolith and avoiding craters to get a closer look, so updates can be expected." | Science & Tech | This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, the "Moon Cube" is generally considered, in the judgment of Metaculus moderators, to be a non-natural object (i.e. a human-made object, or an object appearing to have been created or shaped by intelligent means). If the object is generally considered to be a natural object, such as a rock formation, this question resolves negatively. If there is no general consensus, the question resolves ambiguously | true | 2022-03-01 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?
The Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die. | Politics & Governance | If a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously.
Fine Print
In order for this question to resolve positive a justice must be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate by the resolution date. A justice being nominated and not confirmed; or being added only via a recess appointment, would not be sufficient to cause this question to resolve positive unless they are also confirmed by the Senate before the resolve date. | true | 2022-08-22 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-09-05 | 2021-12-08 | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60037657", "https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1566752757159190529", "https://twitter.com/SmarketsPol/status/1565709790885691392", "https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-set-to-win-tory-leadership-race-by-decisive-margin-sky-news-poll-reveals-12675498", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1555565046683533312", "https://conservativehome.com/2022/08/03/conhomes-tory-leadership-election-survey-truss-58-per-cent-sunak-26-per-cent-12-per-cent-undecided/", "https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1554544957473660931", "https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/208330/mail-backs-truss-for-pm", "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/08/01/liz-truss-right-choice-tories/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11358/next-conservative-leader-uk/)", "https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1554167835500462082", "https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1553853794664026112", "https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1553133239317008385)", "https://order-order.com/2022/07/29/liz-now-more-popular-with-public-and-tories/", "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/2022/07/20/15-00/conservative-leadership-contest/next-conservative-leader", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-has-the-experience-to-stand-up-for-britain-wcrdqp6d2?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659043245", "https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1552580477478965250", "https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1552580483032260609", "https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1552555315136266241", "https://twitter.com/PMBreakingNews/status/1551986159252869121", "https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1551885473320148992", "https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1551885482619031552", "https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1551885618585690112", "https://twitter.com/SmarketsPol/status/1551682174377771010", "https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1551677039349944320", "https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1551678417824784388", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/21/liz-truss-holds-24-point-lead-over-rishi-sunak-amo", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1549771626258075649", "https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1549763991186153472", "https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1549394028160077825?s=19", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)#Results", "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/2022/09/05/12-00/conservative-leadership-contest/next-conservative-leader", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group#Subscribers", "https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1547697457647087616)"] | binary | [["2021-12-11", 0.18], ["2021-12-14", 0.223], ["2021-12-16", 0.239], ["2021-12-19", 0.268], ["2021-12-21", 0.291], ["2021-12-22", 0.287], ["2021-12-24", 0.274], ["2021-12-27", 0.27], ["2021-12-29", 0.267], ["2022-01-01", 0.267], ["2022-01-03", 0.268], 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["2022-08-30", 0.655], ["2022-09-02", 0.655], ["2022-09-05", 0.664]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8831/ | Elizabeth Mary Truss, born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
As of December 2021, Truss enjoys a very high approval rating from members of the Conservative Party. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2025, Elizabeth Truss holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party on a permanent basis (an interim leadership pending a leadership contest does not count) | true | 2025-01-01 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | metaculus | 1 |
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However, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, animal agriculture is a hard market to beat. Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods.
As plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually become much more cost effective than animal based products.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve as Yes if the mean price per pound of plant-based meat, averaged from Impossible Food and Beyond Meat, is less than the average price per pound of all uncooked ground beef at any point between December 13, 2021 to April 22, 2023.
The average price per pound of plant-based meat will be averaged from the retail price per pound of Impossible Foods ground beef (using their 12 ounce pack) and Beyond Meat ground beef (using their Beef Bulk Pack. If these specific products are not available at time of resolution, a comparable bulk-package ground beef product by the same company will be used instead. Prices for each product will be taken from either the manufacturer's direct-to-customer e-commerce website or major US online grocers (such as Walmart or Amazon), whichever is cheapest, excepting sales and special offers.
We are asking only about companies Beyond and Impossible. If a new company is created (other than Beyond/Impossible) that creates artificial ground beef and is able to bring prices down to answer this question, this question will still resolve negatively. (A year is a short time to start a new company and such a new company may have introductory prices that don't reflect real costs).
If either Beyond Meat or Impossible foods stops producing plant-based ground beef before the resolution is met, or if either company discontinues their multi-pound ground beef options, admins can select other similar plant-based companies, or company products, that adequately fulfill the brief to resolve the question. Other products, if used to calculated the average price per pound of plant-based ground beef, must be 100% plant-based and listed as a substitute for ground beef.
Conventional ground beef prices will be sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the "U.S. city average" figures shall be used). If these statistics are not available in April 2023, an equivalent statistic will be chosen, preferably published by a government organization. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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