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2022-01-02 | 2021-01-27 | [] | binary | [["2021-01-29", 0.35], ["2021-01-30", 0.211], ["2021-02-01", 0.23], ["2021-02-01", 0.246], ["2021-02-02", 0.218], ["2021-02-03", 0.229], ["2021-02-04", 0.221], ["2021-02-05", 0.218], ["2021-02-06", 0.214], ["2021-02-08", 0.214], ["2021-02-09", 0.224], ["2021-02-09", 0.224], ["2021-02-10", 0.224], ["2021-02-11", 0.224], ["2021-02-12", 0.225], ["2021-02-13", 0.22], ["2021-02-14", 0.218], ["2021-02-16", 0.21], ["2021-02-16", 0.217], ["2021-02-17", 0.218], ["2021-02-18", 0.218], ["2021-02-18", 0.217], ["2021-02-20", 0.217], ["2021-02-23", 0.216], ["2021-02-24", 0.212], ["2021-02-28", 0.212], ["2021-03-01", 0.213], ["2021-03-03", 0.212], ["2021-03-03", 0.212], ["2021-03-08", 0.213], ["2021-03-09", 0.213], ["2021-03-10", 0.209], ["2021-03-11", 0.209], ["2021-03-13", 0.209], ["2021-03-31", 0.209], ["2021-04-07", 0.208], ["2021-04-09", 0.207], ["2021-04-09", 0.207], ["2021-04-11", 0.206], ["2021-04-14", 0.206], ["2021-04-17", 0.204], ["2021-04-19", 0.209], ["2021-04-19", 0.209], ["2021-04-24", 0.207], ["2021-05-07", 0.207], ["2021-05-08", 0.206], ["2021-05-15", 0.206], ["2021-05-16", 0.198], ["2021-05-17", 0.2], ["2021-05-23", 0.2], ["2021-05-23", 0.2], ["2021-05-25", 0.2], ["2021-05-26", 0.198], ["2021-05-27", 0.198], ["2021-05-28", 0.197], ["2021-05-30", 0.197], ["2021-06-03", 0.197], ["2021-06-03", 0.195], ["2021-06-10", 0.195], ["2021-06-12", 0.195], ["2021-06-15", 0.195], ["2021-06-16", 0.188], ["2021-06-16", 0.187], ["2021-06-17", 0.186], ["2021-06-19", 0.186], ["2021-06-19", 0.185], ["2021-06-21", 0.185], ["2021-06-24", 0.184], ["2021-06-24", 0.184], ["2021-06-26", 0.183], ["2021-06-28", 0.183], ["2021-06-29", 0.183], ["2021-06-30", 0.182], ["2021-06-30", 0.18], ["2021-07-01", 0.179], ["2021-07-04", 0.179], ["2021-07-05", 0.178], ["2021-07-06", 0.178], ["2021-07-07", 0.178], ["2021-07-08", 0.177], ["2021-07-09", 0.176], ["2021-07-10", 0.175], ["2021-07-11", 0.174], ["2021-07-12", 0.174], ["2021-07-14", 0.173], ["2021-07-15", 0.173], ["2021-07-15", 0.173], ["2021-07-17", 0.171], ["2021-07-19", 0.171], ["2021-07-20", 0.171], ["2021-07-20", 0.171], ["2021-07-22", 0.171], ["2021-07-23", 0.17], ["2021-07-24", 0.17], ["2021-07-26", 0.169], ["2021-07-26", 0.17], ["2021-07-27", 0.17], ["2021-07-28", 0.17], ["2021-07-29", 0.169], ["2021-07-30", 0.154], ["2021-07-31", 0.15]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6419/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Marjorie Taylor Greene is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.
Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including Pizzagate, QAnon, false flag shootings as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, 9/11 conspiracy theories, and "Frazzledrip" (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook.
Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. Five members of congress have been expelled in the past and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.
Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022
This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.
This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.
This question resolves negatively otherwise. | true | 2021-07-31 | Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-01-27 | [] | binary | [["2021-03-05", 0.435], ["2021-03-05", 0.357], ["2021-03-05", 0.368], ["2021-03-05", 0.364], ["2021-03-05", 0.364], ["2021-03-06", 0.303], ["2021-03-06", 0.289], ["2021-03-06", 0.289], ["2021-03-07", 0.281], ["2021-03-07", 0.278], ["2021-03-08", 0.269], ["2021-03-08", 0.247], ["2021-03-09", 0.247], ["2021-03-09", 0.26], ["2021-03-09", 0.255], ["2021-03-10", 0.255], ["2021-03-12", 0.245], ["2021-03-12", 0.245], ["2021-03-12", 0.249], ["2021-03-13", 0.249], ["2021-03-13", 0.239], ["2021-03-22", 0.234], ["2021-03-25", 0.234], ["2021-03-26", 0.227], ["2021-04-01", 0.222], ["2021-04-08", 0.223], ["2021-04-11", 0.223], ["2021-05-01", 0.223], ["2021-05-03", 0.223], ["2021-05-23", 0.223], ["2021-05-28", 0.223], ["2021-05-28", 0.217], ["2021-05-28", 0.213], ["2021-05-28", 0.215], ["2021-05-29", 0.222], ["2021-05-29", 0.207], ["2021-05-29", 0.204], ["2021-05-31", 0.221], ["2021-05-31", 0.221], ["2021-05-31", 0.219], ["2021-06-06", 0.218], ["2021-07-07", 0.218], ["2021-07-12", 0.218], ["2021-07-15", 0.219], ["2021-07-20", 0.219], ["2021-07-20", 0.218], ["2021-07-20", 0.216], ["2021-08-01", 0.216], ["2021-08-03", 0.208], ["2021-08-03", 0.208], ["2021-08-09", 0.209], ["2021-08-09", 0.209], ["2021-08-12", 0.21], ["2021-08-17", 0.21], ["2021-09-21", 0.21], ["2021-09-21", 0.21], ["2021-10-07", 0.212], ["2021-10-07", 0.212], ["2021-10-26", 0.211], ["2021-10-26", 0.211], ["2021-10-28", 0.207], ["2021-10-28", 0.207], ["2021-11-06", 0.212], ["2021-11-29", 0.212], ["2021-12-08", 0.216], ["2021-12-20", 0.215], ["2021-12-25", 0.215], ["2021-12-25", 0.215], ["2021-12-30", 0.216], ["2021-12-30", 0.215], ["2021-12-31", 0.214], ["2021-12-31", 0.212], ["2021-12-31", 0.211], ["2021-12-31", 0.211], ["2021-12-31", 0.205], ["2021-12-31", 0.211], ["2021-12-31", 0.209], ["2021-12-31", 0.208], ["2021-12-31", 0.212], ["2022-01-01", 0.213], ["2022-01-01", 0.215], ["2022-01-01", 0.215], ["2022-01-01", 0.214], ["2022-01-01", 0.214], ["2022-01-01", 0.213], ["2022-01-01", 0.213]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6420/ | Matt Levine is a popular finance writer:
Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. | Economics & Business | This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise | true | 2022-01-01 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2021-01-27 | ["https://mashable.com/article/substack-writers-leaving-misinformation", "https://sagehana.substack.com/p/quick-note-on-substack-and-email/comments"] | binary | [["2021-08-11", 0.31], ["2021-08-12", 0.463], ["2021-08-12", 0.43], ["2021-08-13", 0.444], ["2021-08-14", 0.484], ["2021-08-15", 0.484], ["2021-08-16", 0.498], ["2021-08-19", 0.498], ["2021-08-19", 0.529], ["2021-08-21", 0.543], ["2021-08-21", 0.559], ["2021-08-23", 0.557], ["2021-08-24", 0.566], ["2021-08-27", 0.566], ["2021-08-28", 0.566], ["2021-08-31", 0.57], ["2021-08-31", 0.57], ["2021-09-01", 0.57], ["2021-09-03", 0.55], ["2021-09-21", 0.55], ["2021-09-22", 0.545], ["2021-10-03", 0.549], ["2021-10-05", 0.549], ["2021-10-07", 0.549], ["2021-10-11", 0.543], ["2021-10-15", 0.542], ["2021-10-28", 0.535], ["2021-11-06", 0.535], ["2021-11-12", 0.535], ["2021-11-15", 0.53], ["2021-11-16", 0.53], ["2021-11-28", 0.53], ["2021-12-05", 0.518], ["2021-12-07", 0.518], ["2021-12-15", 0.512], ["2021-12-20", 0.512], ["2021-12-26", 0.517], ["2021-12-30", 0.516], ["2021-12-30", 0.516], ["2022-01-01", 0.518], ["2022-01-02", 0.513], ["2022-01-02", 0.501], ["2022-01-03", 0.501], ["2022-01-06", 0.499], ["2022-01-07", 0.499], ["2022-01-08", 0.498], ["2022-01-09", 0.496], ["2022-01-10", 0.496], ["2022-01-11", 0.489], ["2022-01-12", 0.481], ["2022-01-13", 0.481], ["2022-01-15", 0.48], ["2022-01-19", 0.475], ["2022-01-21", 0.474], ["2022-01-26", 0.471], ["2022-01-28", 0.483], ["2022-01-29", 0.41], ["2022-01-29", 0.411], ["2022-01-30", 0.385], ["2022-02-01", 0.379], ["2022-02-01", 0.377], ["2022-02-02", 0.376], ["2022-02-03", 0.371], ["2022-02-09", 0.37], ["2022-02-10", 0.37], ["2022-02-13", 0.369], ["2022-02-14", 0.369], ["2022-02-15", 0.369], ["2022-02-19", 0.369], ["2022-02-19", 0.367], ["2022-02-22", 0.367], ["2022-02-22", 0.366], ["2022-02-24", 0.366], ["2022-02-25", 0.366], ["2022-02-26", 0.367], ["2022-02-27", 0.365], ["2022-03-01", 0.365], ["2022-03-02", 0.362], ["2022-03-04", 0.362], ["2022-03-05", 0.361], ["2022-03-06", 0.358], ["2022-03-08", 0.359], ["2022-03-09", 0.359], ["2022-03-10", 0.359], ["2022-03-12", 0.359], ["2022-03-13", 0.357], ["2022-03-14", 0.357], ["2022-03-15", 0.357], ["2022-03-16", 0.358], ["2022-03-17", 0.358], ["2022-03-17", 0.358], ["2022-03-18", 0.357], ["2022-03-19", 0.357], ["2022-03-20", 0.357], ["2022-03-21", 0.355], ["2022-03-22", 0.349], ["2022-03-23", 0.345], ["2022-03-24", 0.343], ["2022-03-25", 0.339], ["2022-03-26", 0.29], ["2022-03-27", 0.272]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6424/ | Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. They're known for refusing to remove contentious content, as a recent TechCrunch article explains,
As Substack grew, writers left jobs at BuzzFeed and the New York Times, lured by pay raises and cautious optimism. But as more writers came forward as part of the Substack Pro program, Substack was criticized for subsidizing anti-trans rhetoric, since some of these writers used their newsletters to share such views. Substack admits it’s not entirely apolitical, but the choices of which writers to subsidize, and its decision to use only lightweight moderation tactics, are a political choice in an era of the internet when content moderation has a tangible effect on global politics. Some writers even chose to leave the platform, as a result. | Politics & Governance | This resolves positively if Substack cancels an account, or suspends or deletes any post, of a Substack author with at least 100 subscribers, free or paid, for a reason which is not in their Terms of Use at the time the question opens (an archive of which can be found here).
Negative resolution will be determined if, according to admin discretion, no one in the Metaculus community was able to find a credible example of Substack cancelling anyone in the way previously described | true | 2022-03-27 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride
Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained
Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private | Security & Defense | This question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporarily or permanently banned from the Reddit platform.
This question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022.
This question resolves negatively otherwise | true | 2021-03-01 | Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on January 26. Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could lend its support to a new coalition government, or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.
If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.
The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held | true | 2021-12-30 | Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-03 | 2021-01-29 | ["https://www.senate.gov/legislative/legislative_home.htm"] | binary | [["2021-02-10", 0.17], ["2021-02-11", 0.086], ["2021-02-11", 0.07], ["2021-02-11", 0.09], ["2021-02-12", 0.09], ["2021-02-12", 0.081], ["2021-02-12", 0.075], ["2021-02-13", 0.088], ["2021-02-13", 0.097], ["2021-02-13", 0.097], ["2021-02-13", 0.093], ["2021-02-14", 0.088], ["2021-02-14", 0.087], ["2021-02-14", 0.088], ["2021-02-15", 0.073], ["2021-02-15", 0.071], ["2021-02-15", 0.067], ["2021-02-16", 0.066], ["2021-02-16", 0.069], ["2021-02-16", 0.085], ["2021-02-16", 0.083], ["2021-02-17", 0.083], ["2021-02-17", 0.081], ["2021-02-17", 0.101], ["2021-02-17", 0.098], ["2021-02-17", 0.097], ["2021-02-18", 0.095], ["2021-02-18", 0.091], ["2021-02-19", 0.091], ["2021-02-19", 0.089], ["2021-02-20", 0.088], ["2021-02-20", 0.088], ["2021-02-20", 0.089], ["2021-02-20", 0.088], ["2021-02-20", 0.09], ["2021-02-21", 0.089], ["2021-02-23", 0.091], ["2021-02-24", 0.091], ["2021-02-24", 0.088], ["2021-02-24", 0.087], ["2021-02-24", 0.09], ["2021-02-25", 0.09], ["2021-03-06", 0.088], ["2021-03-08", 0.088], ["2021-03-08", 0.088], ["2021-03-09", 0.086], ["2021-03-09", 0.086], ["2021-03-09", 0.085], ["2021-03-10", 0.077], ["2021-03-25", 0.077], ["2021-03-26", 0.076], ["2021-03-30", 0.076], ["2021-04-01", 0.076], ["2021-04-03", 0.074], ["2021-04-08", 0.074], ["2021-04-08", 0.071], ["2021-04-10", 0.077], ["2021-04-10", 0.075], ["2021-04-11", 0.075], ["2021-04-18", 0.072], ["2021-04-18", 0.071], ["2021-05-01", 0.075], ["2021-05-01", 0.075], ["2021-05-08", 0.074], ["2021-05-17", 0.074], ["2021-05-23", 0.071], ["2021-05-26", 0.07], ["2021-05-26", 0.07], ["2021-06-18", 0.075], ["2021-06-25", 0.075], ["2021-07-01", 0.075], ["2021-07-07", 0.071], ["2021-07-18", 0.071], ["2021-07-18", 0.07], ["2021-07-19", 0.07], ["2021-07-19", 0.07], ["2021-07-22", 0.069], ["2021-07-22", 0.069], ["2021-07-26", 0.071], ["2021-07-29", 0.071], ["2021-07-29", 0.067], ["2021-08-06", 0.072], ["2021-08-18", 0.072], ["2021-08-20", 0.076], ["2021-08-21", 0.076], ["2021-08-24", 0.073], ["2021-09-03", 0.073], ["2021-09-04", 0.073], ["2021-09-04", 0.072], ["2021-09-05", 0.072], ["2021-09-06", 0.071], ["2021-09-06", 0.071], ["2021-09-07", 0.073], ["2021-09-07", 0.073], ["2021-09-07", 0.074], ["2021-09-08", 0.073], ["2021-09-09", 0.073], ["2021-09-09", 0.071], ["2021-09-09", 0.07], ["2021-09-09", 0.072], ["2021-09-10", 0.072]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6434/ | Related question: Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?
The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.
Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.
Fine Print
"Senator" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.
The question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. | true | 2021-09-10 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-04-25 | 2021-01-29 | ["https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/P80000722/1702220/", "https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1650801827728986112?t=o6C8-zSm0VNSiUJRyL2G4w&s=19", "https://www.fec.gov/#statements-of-candidacy", "https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/P80000722/1702220/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChjibtX0UzU", "http://JoeBiden.com", "https://joebiden.com/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-80-formally-declares-2024-re-election-bid-2023-04-25/", "https://apnews.com/article/biden-2024-presidential-election-campaign-announcement-a615c0dc9342dabacab8f2e3f89e308c?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter", "https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1647008454995853313", "https://www.hacksontap.com/episodes/stormy-tuesday-with-paul-begala", "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/biden-roker-running-for-reelection-00091189", "https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1645419054998642690", "https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/president-biden-kicks-off-easter-egg-roll-by-telling-al-roker-hes-planning-to-run-for-reelection/3325956/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_1968_presidential_campaign?wprov=sfla1", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-team-eyes-delaware-2024-campaign-hq-sources-2023-03-22/", "https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1635626498357972992", "https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1631754944603725824", "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history", "https://news.yahoo.com/poll-68-of-voters-say-biden-is-too-old-for-another-term--and-more-democrats-agree-than-disagree-162751496.html", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1629267578991398912", "https://twitter.com/AP/status/1629187580800700417", "https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1627659408804020225", "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html", "https://www.businessinsider.com/medical-care-president-joe-biden-white-house-2022-7", "https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/working-later-in-life-can-pay-off-in-more-than-just-income", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Health-Summary-2.16.pdf", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-reelection-bid-announcement-after-state-of-the-union-address/", "https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1623498307463962628", "https://www.google.com/search?q=joe+biden+running", "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_24", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1590460056935739392)", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1590460231490097152)", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1590460405075554304)", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1589816828809080834", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/05/world/politics-diplomacy-world/donald-trump-november-14-presidential-run-announcement/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1667617103", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/biden-primes-2024-run-eager-to-stop-trump-again-despite-doubts?sref=4ZGeBqkb&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/"] | binary | [["2021-02-11", 0.28], ["2021-02-16", 0.489], ["2021-02-22", 0.51], ["2021-03-01", 0.523], ["2021-03-06", 0.524], ["2021-03-15", 0.526], ["2021-03-24", 0.526], ["2021-04-03", 0.541], ["2021-04-11", 0.542], ["2021-05-03", 0.542], ["2021-05-08", 0.546], ["2021-05-16", 0.546], ["2021-05-23", 0.546], ["2021-06-18", 0.546], ["2021-06-25", 0.547], ["2021-07-04", 0.55], ["2021-07-11", 0.551], ["2021-07-20", 0.551], ["2021-07-28", 0.54], ["2021-08-11", 0.54], ["2021-08-20", 0.539], ["2021-08-28", 0.539], ["2021-09-12", 0.538], ["2021-09-27", 0.538], ["2021-10-05", 0.539], ["2021-10-11", 0.539], ["2021-10-17", 0.541], ["2021-10-22", 0.541], ["2021-10-29", 0.541], ["2021-11-08", 0.541], ["2021-11-16", 0.543], ["2021-11-25", 0.544], ["2021-11-29", 0.541], ["2021-12-06", 0.533], ["2021-12-13", 0.532], ["2021-12-22", 0.535], ["2022-01-01", 0.538], ["2022-01-06", 0.541], ["2022-01-12", 0.541], ["2022-01-17", 0.543], ["2022-01-24", 0.544], ["2022-02-03", 0.547], ["2022-02-08", 0.548], ["2022-02-14", 0.548], ["2022-02-22", 0.545], ["2022-02-28", 0.548], ["2022-03-05", 0.554], ["2022-03-13", 0.558], ["2022-03-19", 0.558], ["2022-03-28", 0.561], ["2022-04-04", 0.564], ["2022-04-11", 0.564], ["2022-04-19", 0.568], ["2022-04-27", 0.577], ["2022-05-05", 0.584], ["2022-05-11", 0.584], ["2022-05-20", 0.585], ["2022-05-30", 0.588], ["2022-06-07", 0.589], ["2022-06-15", 0.589], ["2022-06-21", 0.589], ["2022-06-26", 0.589], ["2022-07-02", 0.59], ["2022-07-07", 0.591], ["2022-07-12", 0.586], ["2022-07-18", 0.588], ["2022-07-23", 0.584], ["2022-07-31", 0.584], ["2022-08-04", 0.583], ["2022-08-15", 0.583], ["2022-08-23", 0.587], ["2022-09-06", 0.587], ["2022-09-12", 0.586], ["2022-09-18", 0.584], ["2022-09-26", 0.585], ["2022-10-04", 0.585], ["2022-10-12", 0.587], ["2022-10-17", 0.588], ["2022-10-28", 0.587], ["2022-11-05", 0.587], ["2022-11-13", 0.594], ["2022-11-20", 0.591], ["2022-11-28", 0.591], ["2022-12-02", 0.592], ["2022-12-09", 0.591], ["2022-12-18", 0.592], ["2022-12-26", 0.592], ["2023-01-03", 0.593], ["2023-01-11", 0.596], ["2023-01-18", 0.593], ["2023-01-26", 0.601], ["2023-02-04", 0.606], ["2023-02-13", 0.614], ["2023-02-22", 0.622], ["2023-03-04", 0.645], ["2023-03-13", 0.651], ["2023-03-23", 0.654], ["2023-04-01", 0.656], ["2023-04-11", 0.662], ["2023-04-21", 0.699], ["2023-04-25", 0.702]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6438/ | When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and 22 years older than the median age of a POTUS since 1960.
Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: LBJ, James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. | Politics & Governance | Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.
Fine Print
If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. | true | 2023-11-16 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-01 | 2021-01-30 | [] | binary | [["2021-02-15", 0.25], ["2021-02-15", 0.2], ["2021-02-16", 0.267], ["2021-02-16", 0.365], ["2021-02-16", 0.365], ["2021-02-16", 0.265], ["2021-02-17", 0.18], ["2021-02-17", 0.18], ["2021-02-17", 0.176], ["2021-02-17", 0.186], ["2021-02-18", 0.182], ["2021-02-18", 0.183], ["2021-02-18", 0.182], ["2021-02-18", 0.217], ["2021-02-18", 0.21], ["2021-02-19", 0.212], ["2021-02-19", 0.212], ["2021-02-20", 0.209], ["2021-02-20", 0.215], ["2021-02-21", 0.215], ["2021-02-21", 0.232], ["2021-02-21", 0.222], ["2021-02-21", 0.219], ["2021-02-21", 0.219], ["2021-02-21", 0.224], ["2021-02-21", 0.224], ["2021-02-21", 0.217], ["2021-02-21", 0.232], ["2021-02-21", 0.234], ["2021-02-22", 0.23], ["2021-02-22", 0.23], ["2021-02-23", 0.228], ["2021-02-23", 0.219], ["2021-02-23", 0.219], ["2021-02-23", 0.22], ["2021-02-23", 0.221], ["2021-02-23", 0.221], ["2021-02-24", 0.226], ["2021-02-24", 0.226], ["2021-02-24", 0.218], ["2021-02-25", 0.221], ["2021-02-25", 0.221], ["2021-02-25", 0.221], ["2021-02-25", 0.22], ["2021-02-26", 0.221], ["2021-02-26", 0.221], ["2021-02-27", 0.223], ["2021-02-27", 0.223], ["2021-02-27", 0.223], ["2021-02-28", 0.224], ["2021-02-28", 0.223], ["2021-02-28", 0.234], ["2021-02-28", 0.231], ["2021-02-28", 0.231], ["2021-02-28", 0.229], ["2021-02-28", 0.234], ["2021-02-28", 0.234], ["2021-02-28", 0.238], ["2021-03-01", 0.235], ["2021-03-01", 0.235]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6442/ | On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zł464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zł462.00 four months earlier.
Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning), contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zł238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack). | Economics & Business | The question will resolve positively if the stock price of CDR reaches zł462.00 or greater, at any time during regular trading hours, by the end of 2021, as indicated on TradingView | true | 2021-03-01 | Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-29 | 2021-01-30 | [] | binary | [["2021-02-03", 0.7], ["2021-02-03", 0.69], ["2021-02-04", 0.666], ["2021-02-05", 0.693], ["2021-02-06", 0.692], ["2021-02-08", 0.693], ["2021-02-08", 0.681], ["2021-02-10", 0.681], ["2021-02-11", 0.671], ["2021-02-13", 0.668], ["2021-02-13", 0.665], ["2021-02-14", 0.662], ["2021-02-14", 0.66], ["2021-02-18", 0.66], ["2021-02-19", 0.66], ["2021-02-21", 0.662], ["2021-02-23", 0.656], ["2021-02-24", 0.617], ["2021-02-24", 0.615], ["2021-02-25", 0.603], ["2021-02-26", 0.598], ["2021-02-26", 0.598], ["2021-02-28", 0.58], ["2021-03-02", 0.58], ["2021-03-03", 0.562], ["2021-03-04", 0.549], ["2021-03-07", 0.544], ["2021-03-07", 0.543], ["2021-03-11", 0.543], ["2021-03-12", 0.501], ["2021-03-13", 0.501], ["2021-03-14", 0.494], ["2021-03-14", 0.487], ["2021-03-15", 0.468], ["2021-03-17", 0.467], ["2021-03-18", 0.466], ["2021-03-23", 0.461], ["2021-03-24", 0.448], ["2021-03-26", 0.446], ["2021-03-28", 0.446], ["2021-03-29", 0.426], ["2021-03-30", 0.423], ["2021-03-30", 0.424], ["2021-04-01", 0.422], ["2021-04-03", 0.418], ["2021-04-04", 0.418], ["2021-04-05", 0.419], ["2021-04-06", 0.412], ["2021-04-07", 0.418], ["2021-04-08", 0.419], ["2021-04-09", 0.419], ["2021-04-09", 0.415], ["2021-04-12", 0.415], ["2021-04-13", 0.414], ["2021-04-14", 0.414], ["2021-04-15", 0.411], ["2021-04-16", 0.41], ["2021-04-21", 0.409], ["2021-04-24", 0.406], ["2021-04-26", 0.406], ["2021-04-29", 0.404], ["2021-05-07", 0.404], ["2021-05-08", 0.403], ["2021-05-09", 0.407], ["2021-05-10", 0.403], ["2021-05-11", 0.397], ["2021-05-12", 0.407], ["2021-05-13", 0.407], ["2021-05-15", 0.409], ["2021-05-16", 0.436], ["2021-05-21", 0.431], ["2021-05-21", 0.43], ["2021-05-24", 0.43], ["2021-05-25", 0.431], ["2021-05-26", 0.436], ["2021-05-27", 0.429], ["2021-06-01", 0.425], ["2021-06-02", 0.427], ["2021-06-03", 0.428], ["2021-06-04", 0.426], ["2021-06-08", 0.419], ["2021-06-08", 0.42], ["2021-06-10", 0.42], ["2021-06-12", 0.42], ["2021-06-13", 0.426], ["2021-06-14", 0.43], ["2021-06-16", 0.43], ["2021-06-17", 0.425], ["2021-06-19", 0.419], ["2021-06-19", 0.42], ["2021-06-20", 0.419], ["2021-06-21", 0.426], ["2021-06-22", 0.426], ["2021-06-23", 0.43], ["2021-06-24", 0.427], ["2021-06-25", 0.426], ["2021-06-26", 0.425], ["2021-06-26", 0.419], ["2021-06-27", 0.419], ["2021-06-28", 0.41], ["2021-06-29", 0.402]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6444/ | Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy; its bicameral legislature, the Federal Parliament, holds a general election at least once every three years.
There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:
The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time, with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House.
Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. According to Section 13 of the Constitution, elections for these retiring Senators must be held "within one year before the places are to become vacant."
While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The Australian Parliament House Library website provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)
The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.
Fine Print
Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. | true | 2021-06-29 | Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of December 2020, the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.
France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms no later than 2025.
The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by March 2021.
The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary measure.In 2019, the previous Irish government pledged to deliver a bill banning fur farming.
Hungary also announced a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).
In Germany, fur farming will be phased out in 2022 due to stricter welfare requirements.
In January 2021, the Swedish government announced that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic
Fur farming has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.
In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament raised the issue of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, questioned whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober called for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons. | Environment & Energy | This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the EC Press corner, or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union | true | 2021-11-01 | In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? | metaculus | 0 |
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Once the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.
The deal has been denounced by European beef farmers, environmental activists, animal welfare advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also criticised the agreement. In October 2020 both the European Parliament and the European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement "cannot be approved as it stands. | Politics & Governance | Resolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours | true | 2021-11-01 | Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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U.S. forces met the first commitment to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.
U.S. troop count is presently at 2,500, as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.
The Biden administration is currently reviewing the peace deal with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. | Security & Defense | The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence) | true | 2021-03-15 | Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? | metaculus | 1 |
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Members of the subreddit generally seem to believe that the peak of the GME squeeze has not occurred yet.
There was another Metaculus question asking if GME would breach $420.69 by the end of 2021. It resolved positively. | Economics & Business | The question resolves positively if the GME stock price as indicated by Yahoo Finance reaches at least $1000 at any point of time before 11:59 pm EST, 20 February 2021. The question resolves positively even if $1000 is attained outside of regular trading hours.
The question resolves negatively otherwise | true | 2021-02-20 | Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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On 29 January, Johnson & Johnson reported interim results from the ENSEMBLE trial, which includes 72% efficacy in the US and 66% overall efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19.
On 4 February, Johnson & Johnson announced that it had submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). Later on 4 February, the FDA scheduled a meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) for 26 February 2021. The purpose of the VRBPAC meeting is to have a "public discussion ... about the data submitted in support of safety and effectiveness of Janssen Biotech Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine ... help ensure that the public has a clear understanding of the scientific data and information that FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize this vaccine."
For the two SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for which the FDA has already issued EUAs, the EUA was issued the day after the VRBPAC meeting. The VRBPAC meeting on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine occurred on 10 December 2020 and the FDA issued an EUA for it on 11 December. The VRBPAC meeting on the Moderna vaccine occurred on 17 December 2020 and the FDA issued an EUA for it on 18 December. | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves on the basis of an announcement by the US FDA that it has issued an EUA for the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Such an EUA should be issued no more than one week after the date of the VRBPAC meeting (no later than 11:59PM EST on 5 March) to count toward resolving this question positively.
If the FDA reschedules the VRBPAC meeting, this resolves ambiguously. If the FDA issues an EUA before the VRBPAC meeting, this resolves ambiguously | true | 2021-02-25 | Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting? | metaculus | 1 |
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On December 8th 2020, Starship SN8 was the first SpaceX Starship prototype to fly to a height of at least 1 km.
On Feburary 2nd 2021, Starship SN9 was the second prototype to do so.
Both SN8 and SN9 failed to land successfully, exploding on impact.
The cause of SN8's failure is thought to be fuel tank underpressure, causing oxygen-rich combustion to overheat and destroy one engine.
The cause of SN9's failure was that one of the two Raptor engines used for the attempted landing failed to re-light for the landing burn.
When asked why SN9 did not re-light all three engines, and subsequently shut-off one of them if all three re-lit successfully, Elon Musk responded that It was foolish of us not to start 3 engines & immediately shut down 1, as 2 are needed to land.
The Starship SN10 prototype is currently on the launch pad being fitted with Raptor engines, and is expected to fly soon.
Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?
This question will resolve positively if the Starship SN10 prototype flies to an altitude of at least 1km and successfully lands.
If Starship SN10 has not flown yet by the resolution date, this question resolves ambiguous.
If Starship SN10 is destroyed without flying to an altitude of at least 1km, or if SpaceX announces that it does not intend to fly SN10 after all, then this question resolves negative.
The landing will be considered successful or unsuccessful if it is described as such by SpaceX or Elon Musk (they do not need to use those exact words), if neither comments on the success of the landing, then by two reliable media sources. | true | 2021-02-20 | [Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully? | metaculus | 1 |
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Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.
From Food Safety News,
The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.
In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.
“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”
The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef.
From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety is,
a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.
You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals here. | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:
The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found here.
Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.
Otherwise, this question resolves negatively | true | 2021-06-01 | Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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On 29 January, Johnson & Johnson reported interim results from the ENSEMBLE trial, which includes 72% efficacy in the US and 66% overall efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19.
On 4 February, Johnson & Johnson announced that it had submitted an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). Later on 4 February, the FDA scheduled a meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) for 26 February 2021. The purpose of the VRBPAC meeting is to have a "public discussion ... about the data submitted in support of safety and effectiveness of Janssen Biotech Inc.’s COVID-19 vaccine ... help ensure that the public has a clear understanding of the scientific data and information that FDA will evaluate in order to make a decision about whether to authorize this vaccine."
For the two SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for which the FDA has already issued EUAs, the EUA was issued the day after the VRBPAC meeting. The VRBPAC meeting on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine occurred on 10 December 2020 and the FDA issued an EUA for it on 11 December. The VRBPAC meeting on the Moderna vaccine occurred on 17 December 2020 and the FDA issued an EUA for it on 18 December. | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves on the basis of an announcement by the US FDA that it has issued an EUA for the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Such an EUA should be issued no later than 31 December 2021 | true | 2021-03-30 | Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.
The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.
This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.
As of February 12 2021, two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection in the latest outbreak. | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.
Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question | true | 2021-05-31 | Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example.
“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.
Giving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.
It also urges approval of more vaccines. | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:
Approval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines
Half dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-1 | true | 2021-03-08 | Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-02-15 | ["https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1612634349559742465", "https://twitter.com/MarshaCollier/status/1612675369760608256", "https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-computer-and-technol-28119131/episode/tech-news-from-ces-2023-106967151/", "https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-self-driving-rollout-boring-co-las-vegas-loop-explained/", "https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-self-driving-rollout-boring-co-las-vegas-loop-explained/"] | binary | [["2021-04-02", 0.25], ["2021-04-02", 0.475], ["2021-04-03", 0.473], ["2021-04-03", 0.455], ["2021-04-03", 0.438], ["2021-04-03", 0.38], ["2021-04-03", 0.372], ["2021-04-04", 0.355], ["2021-04-04", 0.34], ["2021-04-04", 0.31], ["2021-04-04", 0.29], ["2021-04-04", 0.282], ["2021-04-04", 0.28], ["2021-04-04", 0.26], ["2021-04-04", 0.26], ["2021-04-05", 0.252], ["2021-04-05", 0.248], ["2021-04-05", 0.235], ["2021-04-05", 0.235], ["2021-04-05", 0.214], ["2021-04-05", 0.214], ["2021-04-05", 0.228], ["2021-04-06", 0.212], ["2021-04-06", 0.211], ["2021-04-06", 0.211], ["2021-04-06", 0.219], ["2021-04-07", 0.219], ["2021-04-07", 0.222], ["2021-04-07", 0.221], ["2021-04-08", 0.221], ["2021-04-09", 0.217], ["2021-04-11", 0.225], ["2021-04-11", 0.225], ["2021-04-12", 0.222], ["2021-04-12", 0.22], ["2021-05-23", 0.22], ["2021-06-13", 0.218], ["2021-06-15", 0.218], ["2021-06-16", 0.236], ["2021-06-28", 0.236], ["2021-06-29", 0.237], ["2021-07-07", 0.232], ["2021-07-15", 0.233], ["2021-07-20", 0.233], ["2021-07-20", 0.232], ["2021-07-24", 0.235], ["2021-07-24", 0.235], ["2021-07-25", 0.235], ["2021-07-25", 0.235], ["2021-07-25", 0.233], ["2021-07-25", 0.233], ["2021-07-28", 0.233], ["2021-07-28", 0.233], ["2021-07-29", 0.234], ["2021-07-30", 0.234], ["2021-07-30", 0.234], ["2021-07-31", 0.234], ["2021-08-26", 0.235], ["2021-08-26", 0.235], ["2021-08-27", 0.235], ["2021-09-10", 0.235], ["2021-09-11", 0.233], ["2021-09-15", 0.233], ["2021-09-16", 0.239], ["2021-09-16", 0.24], ["2021-09-16", 0.251], ["2021-09-17", 0.252], ["2021-09-18", 0.253], ["2021-09-21", 0.252], ["2021-09-25", 0.251], ["2021-09-26", 0.25], ["2021-09-29", 0.252], ["2021-09-29", 0.255], ["2021-10-02", 0.256], ["2021-10-03", 0.256], ["2021-10-03", 0.256], ["2021-10-03", 0.256], ["2021-10-03", 0.258], ["2021-10-05", 0.261], ["2021-10-05", 0.261], ["2021-10-06", 0.261], ["2021-10-07", 0.262], ["2021-10-07", 0.262], ["2021-10-07", 0.256], ["2021-10-07", 0.255], ["2021-10-08", 0.254], ["2021-10-08", 0.251], ["2021-10-08", 0.251], ["2021-10-08", 0.247], ["2021-10-11", 0.251], ["2021-10-11", 0.251], ["2021-10-11", 0.251], ["2021-10-14", 0.25], ["2021-10-14", 0.25], ["2021-10-15", 0.249], ["2021-10-15", 0.243], ["2021-10-15", 0.243], ["2021-10-15", 0.237], ["2021-10-15", 0.234], ["2021-10-15", 0.234], ["2021-10-15", 0.23]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6603/ | The LVCC Loop is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. Testing of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.
This project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. | Science & Tech | This question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to failure to transport users (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question).
From the article above: "There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch."
This implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.
If fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.
For this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.
Either way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.
Determination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question.
If no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no | true | 2021-10-15 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December blog post (paywalled) that originally showcased this prediction. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positive if FiveThirtyEight’s average of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays | true | 2021-05-31 | On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-31 | 2021-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2021-02-20", 0.65], ["2021-02-21", 0.606], ["2021-02-22", 0.616], ["2021-02-22", 0.614], ["2021-02-23", 0.606], ["2021-02-23", 0.605], ["2021-02-23", 0.607], ["2021-02-24", 0.611], ["2021-02-24", 0.61], ["2021-02-25", 0.609], ["2021-02-25", 0.609], ["2021-02-26", 0.609], ["2021-02-26", 0.609], ["2021-02-27", 0.614], ["2021-02-28", 0.612], ["2021-02-28", 0.614], ["2021-03-01", 0.619], ["2021-03-01", 0.619], ["2021-03-02", 0.619], ["2021-03-02", 0.619], ["2021-03-03", 0.619], ["2021-03-03", 0.619], ["2021-03-04", 0.619], ["2021-03-04", 0.616], ["2021-03-05", 0.616], ["2021-03-05", 0.616], ["2021-03-06", 0.616], ["2021-03-06", 0.617], ["2021-03-07", 0.617], ["2021-03-09", 0.617], ["2021-03-09", 0.616], ["2021-03-11", 0.616], ["2021-03-15", 0.619], ["2021-03-16", 0.623], ["2021-03-17", 0.624], ["2021-03-17", 0.621], ["2021-03-19", 0.621], ["2021-03-20", 0.623], ["2021-03-21", 0.623], ["2021-03-25", 0.623], ["2021-03-25", 0.623], ["2021-03-27", 0.623], ["2021-03-28", 0.628], ["2021-04-01", 0.627], ["2021-04-04", 0.622], ["2021-04-04", 0.625], ["2021-04-05", 0.625], ["2021-04-05", 0.624], ["2021-04-07", 0.624], ["2021-04-08", 0.624], ["2021-04-09", 0.624], ["2021-04-09", 0.624], ["2021-04-10", 0.624], ["2021-04-14", 0.624], ["2021-04-14", 0.624], ["2021-04-16", 0.624], ["2021-04-23", 0.624], ["2021-04-25", 0.625], ["2021-04-25", 0.625], ["2021-04-27", 0.625], ["2021-04-28", 0.639], ["2021-04-28", 0.64], ["2021-04-29", 0.643], ["2021-04-29", 0.643], ["2021-04-30", 0.644], ["2021-04-30", 0.645], ["2021-05-01", 0.646], ["2021-05-01", 0.64], ["2021-05-02", 0.64], ["2021-05-02", 0.639], ["2021-05-03", 0.639], ["2021-05-04", 0.639], ["2021-05-04", 0.64], ["2021-05-08", 0.64], ["2021-05-09", 0.644], ["2021-05-10", 0.646], ["2021-05-11", 0.649], ["2021-05-12", 0.649], ["2021-05-13", 0.649], ["2021-05-15", 0.649], ["2021-05-15", 0.65], ["2021-05-16", 0.655], ["2021-05-17", 0.645], ["2021-05-17", 0.649], ["2021-05-18", 0.657], ["2021-05-18", 0.658], ["2021-05-19", 0.658], ["2021-05-20", 0.659], ["2021-05-21", 0.664], ["2021-05-21", 0.665], ["2021-05-23", 0.666], ["2021-05-23", 0.666], ["2021-05-24", 0.666], ["2021-05-24", 0.665], ["2021-05-28", 0.665], ["2021-05-28", 0.665], ["2021-05-29", 0.667], ["2021-05-29", 0.667], ["2021-05-30", 0.666], ["2021-05-31", 0.671], ["2021-05-31", 0.671]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6636/ | Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls, the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December blog post (paywalled) that originally showcased this prediction. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of "all polls" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. This question resolves the earliest as of 1st of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
Fine Print
[edit note] SCH 2021-05-17: replaced This question resolves if the FiveThirtyEight average of "all polls" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. with This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of "all polls" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. | true | 2021-05-31 | On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? | metaculus | 0 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28 that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to BEA data. Historical data may further be found here | true | 2021-05-31 | Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-06-04 | 2021-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2021-02-20", 0.27], ["2021-02-21", 0.258], ["2021-02-22", 0.258], ["2021-02-22", 0.258], ["2021-02-23", 0.257], ["2021-02-24", 0.257], ["2021-02-25", 0.258], ["2021-02-26", 0.257], ["2021-02-26", 0.256], ["2021-02-27", 0.26], ["2021-03-01", 0.257], ["2021-03-01", 0.254], ["2021-03-02", 0.26], ["2021-03-03", 0.26], ["2021-03-04", 0.259], ["2021-03-05", 0.26], ["2021-03-06", 0.26], ["2021-03-07", 0.252], ["2021-03-08", 0.252], ["2021-03-09", 0.255], ["2021-03-12", 0.255], ["2021-03-12", 0.252], ["2021-03-13", 0.251], ["2021-03-13", 0.251], ["2021-03-14", 0.251], ["2021-03-15", 0.252], ["2021-03-16", 0.256], ["2021-03-21", 0.255], ["2021-03-21", 0.255], ["2021-03-22", 0.255], ["2021-03-23", 0.257], ["2021-03-24", 0.26], ["2021-03-25", 0.261], ["2021-03-25", 0.261], ["2021-03-26", 0.26], ["2021-03-27", 0.26], ["2021-03-28", 0.26], ["2021-03-29", 0.26], ["2021-03-29", 0.26], ["2021-03-30", 0.261], ["2021-04-01", 0.26], ["2021-04-02", 0.26], ["2021-04-03", 0.26], ["2021-04-04", 0.26], ["2021-04-05", 0.259], ["2021-04-06", 0.254], ["2021-04-07", 0.255], ["2021-04-08", 0.255], ["2021-04-09", 0.254], ["2021-04-09", 0.254], ["2021-04-11", 0.254], ["2021-04-12", 0.254], ["2021-04-13", 0.255], ["2021-04-14", 0.254], ["2021-04-17", 0.254], ["2021-04-18", 0.254], ["2021-04-19", 0.254], ["2021-04-20", 0.254], ["2021-04-20", 0.255], ["2021-04-21", 0.255], ["2021-04-22", 0.256], ["2021-04-23", 0.256], ["2021-04-23", 0.256], ["2021-04-25", 0.249], ["2021-04-25", 0.249], ["2021-04-27", 0.249], ["2021-04-27", 0.249], ["2021-04-28", 0.249], ["2021-04-29", 0.249], ["2021-04-30", 0.249], ["2021-05-01", 0.249], ["2021-05-03", 0.248], ["2021-05-03", 0.248], ["2021-05-04", 0.247], ["2021-05-05", 0.247], ["2021-05-07", 0.247], ["2021-05-08", 0.246], ["2021-05-09", 0.246], ["2021-05-09", 0.246], ["2021-05-10", 0.246], ["2021-05-11", 0.246], ["2021-05-12", 0.244], ["2021-05-15", 0.244], ["2021-05-15", 0.244], ["2021-05-17", 0.244], ["2021-05-17", 0.248], ["2021-05-18", 0.249], ["2021-05-19", 0.249], ["2021-05-20", 0.246], ["2021-05-21", 0.241], ["2021-05-22", 0.235], ["2021-05-23", 0.238], ["2021-05-24", 0.237], ["2021-05-25", 0.233], ["2021-05-26", 0.229], ["2021-05-27", 0.229], ["2021-05-28", 0.229], ["2021-05-29", 0.228], ["2021-05-30", 0.227], ["2021-05-31", 0.215], ["2021-05-31", 0.209]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6639/ | The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. | Sports | This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously | true | 2021-05-31 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? | metaculus | 0 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at Slow Boring predicted on December 28th that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.
This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? | metaculus | 1 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. | Politics & Governance | For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court | true | 2021-05-31 | Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States. | Healthcare & Biology | This resolves positively if data from Our World in Data indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021 | true | 2021-05-31 | Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021. | Science & Tech | This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on apple.com that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list "Apple Silicon" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).
Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?
This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on apple.com. The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list "Apple Silicon" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident). | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021 | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident). | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources | true | 2021-05-31 | Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-01 | 2021-02-20 | [] | binary | [["2021-02-25", 0.15], ["2021-02-27", 0.41], ["2021-03-02", 0.255], ["2021-03-05", 0.27], ["2021-03-07", 0.282], ["2021-03-09", 0.283], ["2021-03-11", 0.276], ["2021-03-13", 0.276], ["2021-03-17", 0.273], ["2021-03-22", 0.273], ["2021-03-24", 0.271], ["2021-03-27", 0.27], ["2021-03-29", 0.268], ["2021-04-01", 0.243], ["2021-04-03", 0.239], ["2021-04-05", 0.239], ["2021-04-08", 0.242], ["2021-04-10", 0.241], ["2021-04-13", 0.242], ["2021-04-16", 0.239], ["2021-04-20", 0.24], ["2021-04-23", 0.241], ["2021-04-26", 0.234], ["2021-04-28", 0.233], ["2021-05-01", 0.231], ["2021-05-05", 0.231], ["2021-05-07", 0.231], ["2021-05-08", 0.232], ["2021-05-13", 0.233], ["2021-05-16", 0.23], ["2021-05-18", 0.23], ["2021-05-20", 0.237], ["2021-05-21", 0.238], ["2021-05-23", 0.244], ["2021-05-26", 0.244], ["2021-05-31", 0.243], ["2021-06-03", 0.243], ["2021-06-07", 0.243], ["2021-06-09", 0.243], ["2021-06-11", 0.244], ["2021-06-14", 0.244], ["2021-06-17", 0.233], ["2021-06-19", 0.237], ["2021-06-22", 0.235], ["2021-06-24", 0.235], ["2021-06-25", 0.234], ["2021-06-28", 0.232], ["2021-06-30", 0.231], ["2021-07-03", 0.231], ["2021-07-05", 0.231], ["2021-07-08", 0.233], ["2021-07-10", 0.233], ["2021-07-14", 0.233], ["2021-07-15", 0.232], ["2021-07-20", 0.233], ["2021-07-20", 0.233], ["2021-07-23", 0.233], ["2021-07-26", 0.238], ["2021-07-28", 0.24], ["2021-07-31", 0.242], ["2021-08-02", 0.242], ["2021-08-04", 0.24], ["2021-08-07", 0.24], ["2021-08-09", 0.236], ["2021-08-11", 0.236], ["2021-08-12", 0.239], ["2021-08-14", 0.237], ["2021-08-16", 0.236], ["2021-08-19", 0.236], ["2021-08-20", 0.236], ["2021-08-24", 0.236], ["2021-08-25", 0.235], ["2021-08-31", 0.235], ["2021-09-03", 0.235], ["2021-09-07", 0.234], ["2021-09-07", 0.233], ["2021-09-11", 0.233], ["2021-09-13", 0.231], ["2021-09-15", 0.228], ["2021-09-18", 0.226], ["2021-09-20", 0.226], ["2021-09-21", 0.224], ["2021-09-24", 0.223], ["2021-09-27", 0.223], ["2021-09-29", 0.223], ["2021-10-02", 0.222], ["2021-10-04", 0.219], ["2021-10-07", 0.219], ["2021-10-08", 0.218], ["2021-10-12", 0.22], ["2021-10-15", 0.219], ["2021-10-18", 0.218], ["2021-10-20", 0.217], ["2021-10-23", 0.216], ["2021-10-26", 0.216], ["2021-10-29", 0.215], ["2021-11-02", 0.211], ["2021-11-03", 0.206], ["2021-11-07", 0.205], ["2021-11-10", 0.193], ["2021-11-10", 0.183]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6656/ | Tether is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. | Economics & Business | The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:
Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the Kraken exchange. This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair.
Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days.
Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx.
(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)
Fine Print
The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.
The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. | true | 2021-11-10 | Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-11-17 | 2021-02-22 | [] | binary | [["2021-03-27", 0.55], ["2021-03-27", 0.403], ["2021-03-28", 0.388], ["2021-03-28", 0.378], ["2021-03-29", 0.384], ["2021-03-30", 0.353], ["2021-03-31", 0.397], ["2021-03-31", 0.397], ["2021-04-01", 0.421], ["2021-04-01", 0.428], ["2021-04-02", 0.438], ["2021-04-02", 0.44], ["2021-04-03", 0.457], ["2021-04-03", 0.456], ["2021-04-03", 0.463], ["2021-04-04", 0.468], ["2021-04-07", 0.468], ["2021-04-08", 0.47], ["2021-04-08", 0.47], ["2021-04-08", 0.471], ["2021-04-09", 0.472], ["2021-04-10", 0.476], ["2021-04-10", 0.476], ["2021-04-11", 0.48], ["2021-04-11", 0.478], ["2021-04-12", 0.471], ["2021-04-14", 0.471], ["2021-04-16", 0.476], ["2021-04-18", 0.481], ["2021-04-18", 0.493], ["2021-04-19", 0.495], ["2021-04-20", 0.514], ["2021-04-21", 0.499], ["2021-04-21", 0.506], ["2021-04-23", 0.509], ["2021-04-23", 0.511], ["2021-04-24", 0.511], ["2021-04-29", 0.508], ["2021-04-30", 0.507], ["2021-05-01", 0.489], ["2021-05-08", 0.505], ["2021-05-13", 0.505], ["2021-05-14", 0.499], ["2021-05-16", 0.499], ["2021-05-16", 0.499], ["2021-05-17", 0.492], ["2021-05-18", 0.491], ["2021-05-21", 0.491], ["2021-05-23", 0.489], ["2021-05-25", 0.493], ["2021-05-26", 0.496], ["2021-05-26", 0.497], ["2021-06-02", 0.496], ["2021-06-03", 0.496], ["2021-06-04", 0.502], ["2021-06-08", 0.502], ["2021-06-10", 0.501], ["2021-06-10", 0.501], ["2021-06-12", 0.5], ["2021-06-12", 0.5], ["2021-06-18", 0.5], ["2021-06-18", 0.5], ["2021-06-22", 0.496], ["2021-06-23", 0.49], ["2021-06-28", 0.49], ["2021-06-29", 0.495], ["2021-06-29", 0.502], ["2021-06-30", 0.503], ["2021-07-01", 0.503], ["2021-07-02", 0.499], ["2021-07-04", 0.499], ["2021-07-07", 0.5], ["2021-07-12", 0.501], ["2021-07-15", 0.501], ["2021-07-16", 0.501], ["2021-07-19", 0.5], ["2021-07-26", 0.5], ["2021-07-29", 0.5], ["2021-07-29", 0.488], ["2021-08-14", 0.491], ["2021-08-18", 0.489], ["2021-08-18", 0.489], ["2021-08-19", 0.491], ["2021-08-20", 0.482], ["2021-08-20", 0.48], ["2021-08-22", 0.48], ["2021-08-24", 0.48], ["2021-08-24", 0.48], ["2021-08-26", 0.483], ["2021-08-27", 0.483], ["2021-08-27", 0.483], ["2021-08-30", 0.482], ["2021-09-01", 0.483], ["2021-09-01", 0.48], ["2021-09-02", 0.479], ["2021-09-02", 0.479], ["2021-09-04", 0.474], ["2021-09-05", 0.473], ["2021-09-05", 0.468], ["2021-09-06", 0.459], ["2021-09-07", 0.441]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6659/ | Related question: Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?
The United States House of Representatives ("House") can expel, censure, or reprimand any of its own members if Members vote to do so.
Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is suing others. One Member lost her Committee privileges. Others have been censured by political organizations outside of Congress. Ethics complaints have been drawn up by citizens' groups.
Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided. | Politics & Governance | The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.
The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).
Fine Print
The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.
Online sources are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as The Hill or Roll Call are also credible sources.
"House Member" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.
Resolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).
Note: A vote to remove a Member following an "Election Contest" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. | true | 2021-09-07 | Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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Stripe, a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public.
With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021.
According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would become the most valuable company to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. | Economics & Business | Resolution
This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise.
Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples | true | 2021-10-31 | Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? | metaculus | 0 |
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New York has had 8 out of 56 governors resign (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his prostitution scandal. On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a front-page story on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal.
As of February 27, 2021, prominent calls for Cuomo's resignation within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.
Fine Print
In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at https://www.governor.ny.gov/ | true | 2021-07-01 | Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-02-28 | ["https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/.", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages", "https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/blackout-warning-economist-calls-plans-24496688"] | binary | [["2021-07-01", 0.2], ["2021-07-02", 0.377], ["2021-07-04", 0.371], ["2021-07-07", 0.375], ["2021-07-08", 0.378], ["2021-07-15", 0.377], ["2021-07-19", 0.38], ["2021-07-20", 0.381], ["2021-08-30", 0.368], ["2021-09-15", 0.361], ["2021-09-16", 0.36], ["2021-09-18", 0.364], ["2021-09-20", 0.363], ["2021-10-05", 0.365], ["2021-10-07", 0.364], ["2021-10-19", 0.356], ["2021-10-27", 0.356], ["2021-10-29", 0.33], ["2021-10-30", 0.324], ["2021-10-31", 0.322], ["2021-11-04", 0.322], ["2021-11-06", 0.325], ["2021-11-06", 0.317], ["2021-12-01", 0.317], ["2021-12-05", 0.316], ["2021-12-07", 0.316], ["2021-12-07", 0.316], ["2021-12-22", 0.316], ["2021-12-29", 0.318], ["2021-12-30", 0.32], ["2022-01-01", 0.32], ["2022-01-02", 0.323], ["2022-01-05", 0.323], ["2022-02-02", 0.326], ["2022-02-13", 0.327], ["2022-02-15", 0.321], ["2022-02-17", 0.328], ["2022-02-26", 0.327], ["2022-02-28", 0.328], ["2022-03-28", 0.328], ["2022-04-03", 0.327], ["2022-04-05", 0.324], ["2022-04-17", 0.32], ["2022-04-23", 0.315], ["2022-05-03", 0.315], ["2022-05-06", 0.313], ["2022-05-07", 0.312], ["2022-05-17", 0.307], ["2022-06-11", 0.307], ["2022-06-13", 0.323], ["2022-06-14", 0.324], ["2022-06-21", 0.324], ["2022-07-12", 0.324], ["2022-07-16", 0.317], ["2022-07-17", 0.284], ["2022-07-18", 0.274], ["2022-07-22", 0.274], ["2022-07-23", 0.284], ["2022-09-07", 0.283], ["2022-09-14", 0.283], ["2022-09-16", 0.283], ["2022-09-16", 0.281], ["2022-09-23", 0.281], ["2022-09-25", 0.281], ["2022-09-26", 0.278], ["2022-09-28", 0.273], ["2022-10-08", 0.275], ["2022-10-11", 0.275], ["2022-10-16", 0.275], ["2022-10-16", 0.275], ["2022-10-24", 0.272], ["2022-10-25", 0.272], ["2022-10-27", 0.278], ["2022-10-28", 0.277], ["2022-10-30", 0.277], ["2022-10-31", 0.27], ["2022-11-01", 0.27], ["2022-11-14", 0.27], ["2022-11-24", 0.272], ["2022-11-26", 0.27], ["2022-11-28", 0.262], ["2022-11-30", 0.26], ["2022-12-01", 0.26], ["2022-12-02", 0.255], ["2022-12-05", 0.252], ["2022-12-07", 0.262], ["2022-12-09", 0.262], ["2022-12-11", 0.259], ["2022-12-13", 0.255], ["2022-12-14", 0.255], ["2022-12-16", 0.244], ["2022-12-18", 0.241], ["2022-12-19", 0.239], ["2022-12-22", 0.239], ["2022-12-22", 0.238], ["2022-12-25", 0.237], ["2022-12-27", 0.237], ["2022-12-28", 0.232], ["2022-12-30", 0.227], ["2022-12-31", 0.183], ["2022-12-31", 0.179]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6694/ | The Continental European synchronous area is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, ENTSO-E [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.
On January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an extensive incident. It was reported as a close call to a "massive blackout" in Europe by some (Bloomberg).
Previous time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the 2006 European blackout, where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.
There also has been notable wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere, most recently in Texas, 2021
In 2003, there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy.
In 2015, there was a large blackout in Turkey, causing split from CE pdf
[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E news, annual report and statistical factsheets | Environment & Energy | This question will resolve as Yes if there is a blackout in more than one country in Continental European Area, affecting total of more than 10 million people for more than 1 hour before January 1, 2023 (UTC).
According to ENTSO-E, Regional Group for Continental synchronous area currently includes Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Nederland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey (observer member).
Appropriate evidence for resolution criteria having been met include news reports by at least two news agencies such as Reuters, AFP, and AP, preferably supported by later report(s) by ENTSOE https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/. To resolve ambiguities about details, reports from news agencies or national broadcasters from affected countries may also be included.
Fine Print
I did not find any standard definition for massive blackout. Because the context is predisposed to cascading power outages in several countries in the area, this question requires threshold of affecting more than one country, more than 10 million people, and for over 1 hour.
For example, the 2003 Italy blackout is a borderline case but would resolve yes, as a part of Geneva canton in Switzerland was affected. Turkey 2015 would not, as it affected people in only one country.
If there are radical changes in the ENTSO-E Continental Europe area membership that would otherwise render question ambiguous, one can use for resolution any synchronous grid involving more than 50% of the currently participating countries. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges will not reduce emissions quickly enough to keep warming below 2C.
Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included ("land-use changes" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).
Kelsey Piper gave a 90% prediction in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021. | Environment & Energy | This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).
Fine Print
If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. | true | 2021-09-10 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February and Merck announced on 2 March that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the third vaccine to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. | Healthcare & Biology | This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation data provided by the CDC and HHS.
Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution:
1: total Pfizer second dose allocations (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)
2: total Moderna second dose allocations (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)
3: total Johnson & Johnson allocations (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)
So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021.
Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.
If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting | true | 2021-05-24 | Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more.
the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k.
According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as "4th waves":
trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater
trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater
trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater
The following examples would not:
trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k
trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k
trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k
Resolves (retroactively if needed) to "yes" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to the CDC | true | 2021-04-15 | Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.
More information, including recent polls, is available on Wikipedia. | Politics & Governance | Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously | true | 2022-04-23 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
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With the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.
In January 2021, the Switch continued to sell more units, however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by supply chain issues which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.
While the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds 4 of the top 6 spots historically for total units sold. | Economics & Business | Results published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch found here and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found on page 9 of this PDF.
Fine Print
Only sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).
The fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. | true | 2021-05-20 | Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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In view of the above, this question asks:
Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?
This question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to ourworldindata.
This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.
The 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar question. | true | 2021-03-26 | Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?
Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.
The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. | true | 2021-09-01 | Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? | metaculus | 0 |
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12 states have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. 22 states have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these "trigger" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.
Kelsey Piper of Vox predicted this has a 40% of happening:
The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.
[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.
I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.
By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?
This question will resolve positively if any of 19 state-level abortion bans become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality. | true | 2021-08-03 | By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect? | metaculus | 0 |
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A question has been on all of our minds: "when will things go back to normal?" News of vaccinations administered is encouraging, but "back to normal" is very vague.
In Vox's Future Perfect, Kelsey Piper predicts:
Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)
With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at this page of government statistics to see if I got this one right.
Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what "back to normal by end of year" means, so we ask: | Economics & Business | This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that 6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics have a monthly average above 0 (defined as "typical") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:
Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)
Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)
Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)
(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)
Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)
Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)
Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)
Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447 | true | 2021-08-20 | Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other attempts at opening negotiations with Iran, it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.
In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a 60% of occurring this year:
The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including actual special forces troops on the ground). Bipartisan pressure from Congress to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.
The Biden campaign in fact promised to end support for the Saudis in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — signed an open letter urging the same.
Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership). | true | 2021-07-16 | Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder, and second-degree manslaughter. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021, with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin. The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.
In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered | true | 2021-04-19 | Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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The timeline of previous albums:
Lover (2019)
Reputation (2017)
1989 (2014)
Red (2012)
Speak Now (2010)
Fearless (2008)
Taylor Swift (2006) | Arts & Recreation | An EP doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.
If Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album | true | 2021-08-31 | Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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The 2017 report on Faith and Belief in Australia
Almost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious.
The top three reasons for choosing this category are:
36% There is ultimate meaning in life.
26% Some inward journey of self-discovery.
22% Mixture of religious beliefs.
The first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017. | Social Sciences | This question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%.
The 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022 | true | 2021-08-09 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?
When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?
Universal Basic Income is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a technological unemployment crisis, or could reform existing social welfare systems. Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.
UBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. The State of Alaska provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by GiveDirectly.
In Vox's Future Perfect, Sigal Samuel predicts:
At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent)
[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.
Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.
A qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. | true | 2021-08-15 | Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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NCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, which in an opinion stated:
"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do."
NCFM filed an appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021 requesting their case be heard.
Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?
The question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via SCOTUSblog, reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.
Positive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case. | true | 2021-07-02 | Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?
When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?
Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to vaccine hesitancy), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters. San Francisco had previously issued an order restricting indoor dining in November of 2020.
Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?
This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.
This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period. | true | 2021-09-09 | Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2021-03-20 | ["https://vtdigger.org/2022/10/13/sen-patrick-leahy-hospitalized-as-a-precaution/"] | binary | [["2021-03-25", 0.13], ["2021-03-25", 0.213], ["2021-03-26", 0.274], ["2021-03-26", 0.222], ["2021-03-27", 0.223], ["2021-03-28", 0.204], ["2021-03-29", 0.193], ["2021-03-29", 0.193], ["2021-03-30", 0.191], ["2021-03-31", 0.194], ["2021-04-01", 0.194], ["2021-04-01", 0.194], ["2021-04-02", 0.193], ["2021-04-04", 0.193], ["2021-04-04", 0.192], ["2021-04-05", 0.192], ["2021-04-05", 0.193], ["2021-04-08", 0.193], ["2021-04-09", 0.193], ["2021-04-10", 0.205], ["2021-04-11", 0.205], ["2021-04-13", 0.204], ["2021-04-23", 0.194], ["2021-04-23", 0.194], ["2021-05-01", 0.194], ["2021-05-01", 0.194], ["2021-05-08", 0.194], ["2021-05-23", 0.193], ["2021-05-23", 0.193], ["2021-06-02", 0.189], ["2021-06-04", 0.188], ["2021-06-15", 0.188], ["2021-06-21", 0.188], ["2021-06-22", 0.191], ["2021-06-28", 0.19], ["2021-07-01", 0.188], ["2021-07-07", 0.188], ["2021-07-07", 0.186], ["2021-07-12", 0.186], ["2021-07-15", 0.186], ["2021-07-20", 0.186], ["2021-07-20", 0.186], ["2021-07-29", 0.186], ["2021-08-05", 0.182], ["2021-08-07", 0.182], ["2021-08-12", 0.182], ["2021-08-21", 0.183], ["2021-08-22", 0.181], ["2021-08-23", 0.185], ["2021-08-26", 0.185], ["2021-09-19", 0.185], ["2021-09-23", 0.186], ["2021-09-24", 0.188], ["2021-10-03", 0.188], ["2021-10-04", 0.187], ["2021-10-05", 0.187], ["2021-10-07", 0.187], ["2021-10-10", 0.186], ["2021-10-10", 0.179], ["2021-10-28", 0.178], ["2021-10-31", 0.178], ["2021-10-31", 0.176], ["2021-11-03", 0.176], ["2021-11-04", 0.176], ["2021-11-05", 0.175], ["2021-11-06", 0.175], ["2021-11-06", 0.172], ["2021-11-10", 0.171], ["2021-11-11", 0.17], ["2021-11-15", 0.17], ["2021-11-15", 0.175], ["2021-11-16", 0.174], ["2021-11-23", 0.172], ["2021-11-27", 0.173], ["2021-11-28", 0.17], ["2021-11-29", 0.17], ["2021-11-30", 0.17], ["2021-12-02", 0.179], ["2021-12-03", 0.178], ["2021-12-04", 0.177], ["2021-12-04", 0.176], ["2021-12-05", 0.178], ["2021-12-06", 0.176], ["2021-12-06", 0.176], ["2021-12-07", 0.176], ["2021-12-08", 0.178], ["2021-12-08", 0.179], ["2021-12-09", 0.178], ["2021-12-10", 0.178], ["2021-12-11", 0.178], ["2021-12-13", 0.178], ["2021-12-13", 0.178], ["2021-12-15", 0.178], ["2021-12-15", 0.178], ["2021-12-16", 0.178], ["2021-12-18", 0.178], ["2021-12-19", 0.177], ["2021-12-20", 0.177], ["2021-12-23", 0.181], ["2021-12-24", 0.178], ["2021-12-24", 0.176]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6883/ | Related question on Metaculus:
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
Democrats won a barely-perceptible majority in the United States Senate after the 2021 Georgia runoff elections.
But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?
Senate control is impermanent as Senators learned in 2001! Senators in the past have changed allegiance. Senate membership has at times been changed by expulsion, by appointment, or by other events.
(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor Paul F. Campos predicted, "All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip." We don't know if he considered literally everything.) | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.
This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.
Fine Print
Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.
Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. This page is regularly updated, and the students answering the phone in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.
Alternatively, pbs.org and npr.org can suffice. | true | 2021-12-25 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-10 | 2021-03-20 | [] | binary | [["2021-04-02", 0.6], ["2021-04-02", 0.6], ["2021-04-02", 0.67], ["2021-04-02", 0.747], ["2021-04-03", 0.77], ["2021-04-03", 0.728], ["2021-04-03", 0.745], ["2021-04-03", 0.736], ["2021-04-03", 0.755], ["2021-04-04", 0.761], ["2021-04-07", 0.78], ["2021-04-07", 0.78], ["2021-04-07", 0.782], ["2021-04-07", 0.779], ["2021-04-08", 0.766], ["2021-04-08", 0.766], ["2021-04-10", 0.76], ["2021-04-11", 0.763], ["2021-04-12", 0.763], ["2021-04-13", 0.762], ["2021-04-28", 0.765], ["2021-06-02", 0.765], ["2021-06-12", 0.771], ["2021-06-13", 0.771], ["2021-06-13", 0.776], ["2021-06-13", 0.781], ["2021-06-13", 0.785], ["2021-06-13", 0.786], ["2021-06-13", 0.786], ["2021-06-14", 0.791], ["2021-06-14", 0.791], ["2021-06-14", 0.794], ["2021-06-14", 0.794], ["2021-06-14", 0.797], ["2021-06-14", 0.806], ["2021-06-14", 0.806], ["2021-06-14", 0.804], ["2021-06-16", 0.796], ["2021-06-22", 0.799], ["2021-06-23", 0.801], ["2021-07-01", 0.801], ["2021-07-06", 0.805], ["2021-07-11", 0.811], ["2021-07-11", 0.814], ["2021-07-11", 0.814], ["2021-07-11", 0.818], ["2021-07-11", 0.825], ["2021-07-11", 0.823], ["2021-07-11", 0.823], ["2021-07-12", 0.823], ["2021-07-12", 0.827], ["2021-07-12", 0.827], ["2021-07-12", 0.831], ["2021-07-12", 0.835], ["2021-07-12", 0.834], ["2021-07-12", 0.838], ["2021-07-12", 0.84], ["2021-07-12", 0.844], ["2021-07-12", 0.844], ["2021-07-12", 0.845], ["2021-07-12", 0.845], ["2021-07-12", 0.848], ["2021-07-12", 0.848], ["2021-07-12", 0.848], ["2021-07-12", 0.853], ["2021-07-12", 0.853], ["2021-07-12", 0.856], ["2021-07-12", 0.856], ["2021-07-12", 0.856], ["2021-07-12", 0.858], ["2021-07-12", 0.858], ["2021-07-12", 0.859], ["2021-07-12", 0.862], ["2021-07-13", 0.862], ["2021-07-13", 0.866], ["2021-07-13", 0.867], ["2021-07-13", 0.867], ["2021-07-15", 0.871], ["2021-07-15", 0.871], ["2021-07-16", 0.875], ["2021-07-16", 0.875], ["2021-07-16", 0.874], ["2021-07-17", 0.874], ["2021-07-17", 0.876], ["2021-07-19", 0.882], ["2021-07-20", 0.882], ["2021-07-20", 0.882], ["2021-07-21", 0.884], ["2021-07-22", 0.885], ["2021-07-23", 0.89], ["2021-07-24", 0.89], ["2021-07-24", 0.888], ["2021-07-24", 0.889], ["2021-07-24", 0.887], ["2021-07-24", 0.885], ["2021-07-24", 0.885], ["2021-07-24", 0.889]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6886/ | Novak Djokovic is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
The Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.
As part of The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode it was asked "Will Djokovic win #20? #21?". The answer given was "Yes and yes". | Sports | This question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)
This question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.
This question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam | true | 2021-07-24 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-09-11 | 2021-03-20 | ["https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/34574972/carlos-alcaraz-19-wins-us-open-become-youngest-world-no-1-men-tennis-history", "https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/34574972/carlos-alcaraz-19-wins-us-open-become-youngest-world-no-1-men-tennis-history", "https://www.eurosport.fr/tennis/us-open/2022/us-open-carlos-alcaraz-bat-casper-ruud-en-finale-remporte-son-premier-grand-chelem-et-devient-le-nou_sto9141507/story.shtml"] | binary | [["2021-04-10", 0.33], ["2021-04-10", 0.415], ["2021-04-10", 0.415], ["2021-04-11", 0.474], ["2021-04-11", 0.429], ["2021-04-11", 0.433], ["2021-04-12", 0.466], ["2021-04-12", 0.466], ["2021-04-12", 0.46], ["2021-04-12", 0.452], ["2021-04-12", 0.452], ["2021-04-12", 0.463], ["2021-04-12", 0.461], ["2021-04-13", 0.449], ["2021-04-13", 0.449], ["2021-04-13", 0.434], ["2021-04-14", 0.432], ["2021-04-15", 0.432], ["2021-04-21", 0.422], ["2021-06-03", 0.422], ["2021-07-16", 0.425], ["2021-07-20", 0.424], ["2021-07-20", 0.424], ["2021-07-21", 0.416], ["2021-08-09", 0.416], ["2021-08-11", 0.412], ["2021-08-12", 0.409], ["2021-08-12", 0.409], ["2021-08-27", 0.41], ["2021-09-08", 0.403], ["2021-09-08", 0.396], ["2021-09-08", 0.396], ["2021-09-09", 0.394], ["2021-09-28", 0.399], ["2021-10-07", 0.397], ["2021-10-14", 0.397], ["2021-12-14", 0.391], ["2022-01-03", 0.391], ["2022-01-30", 0.391], ["2022-01-30", 0.375], ["2022-01-30", 0.375], ["2022-01-30", 0.374], ["2022-01-30", 0.375], ["2022-01-31", 0.373], ["2022-02-09", 0.373], ["2022-02-09", 0.364], ["2022-02-09", 0.364], ["2022-02-09", 0.37], ["2022-02-09", 0.37], ["2022-02-10", 0.351], ["2022-02-10", 0.351], ["2022-02-19", 0.349], ["2022-02-21", 0.375], ["2022-03-02", 0.375], ["2022-03-22", 0.375], ["2022-03-24", 0.374], ["2022-03-24", 0.363], ["2022-04-15", 0.361], ["2022-05-11", 0.362], ["2022-05-11", 0.362], ["2022-05-11", 0.351], ["2022-05-12", 0.347], ["2022-05-13", 0.342], ["2022-05-13", 0.342], ["2022-05-13", 0.342], ["2022-05-13", 0.346], ["2022-05-23", 0.335], ["2022-05-23", 0.324], ["2022-05-24", 0.32], ["2022-05-26", 0.312], ["2022-05-31", 0.312], ["2022-05-31", 0.308], ["2022-05-31", 0.308], ["2022-06-01", 0.307], ["2022-06-02", 0.302], ["2022-06-04", 0.298], ["2022-06-11", 0.294], ["2022-06-12", 0.296], ["2022-06-12", 0.309], ["2022-06-14", 0.309], ["2022-06-21", 0.309], ["2022-06-28", 0.299], ["2022-06-28", 0.299], ["2022-07-10", 0.293], ["2022-07-11", 0.291], ["2022-07-11", 0.286], ["2022-07-15", 0.286], ["2022-07-31", 0.284], ["2022-08-14", 0.284], ["2022-08-31", 0.269], ["2022-09-09", 0.268], ["2022-09-09", 0.267], ["2022-09-10", 0.267]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6887/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Jannik Sinner is an Italian professional tennis player. He is current the youngest tennis player in the top 10 based on Tennis Abstract's Elo rankings
As part of The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode it was asked "Who will be the first man born in the 2000s to win a Slam?". Sinner was picked out as being most likely to win. To operationalise this, we ask what his chances are.
Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam?
Resolves positive if Jannik Sinner is the first male player born after the millennium to win a tennis Grand Slam. (One of Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open).
Resolves negative if a player other than Jannik Sinner born after the millennium wins a tennis Grand Slam before Sinner.
Resolution will be by credible media reports.
This question closes retroactively day before the beginning of the tournament which triggers resolution. | true | 2030-01-01 | Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-02-04 | 2021-03-22 | [] | binary | [["2021-04-08", 0.14], ["2021-04-09", 0.19], ["2021-04-10", 0.166], ["2021-04-11", 0.162], ["2021-04-12", 0.156], ["2021-04-14", 0.156], ["2021-04-15", 0.168], ["2021-04-17", 0.172], ["2021-04-18", 0.172], ["2021-04-20", 0.17], ["2021-04-25", 0.17], ["2021-04-25", 0.17], ["2021-04-27", 0.17], ["2021-04-28", 0.173], ["2021-05-03", 0.175], ["2021-05-15", 0.174], ["2021-05-18", 0.175], ["2021-05-19", 0.175], ["2021-05-22", 0.175], ["2021-05-22", 0.174], ["2021-05-26", 0.174], ["2021-06-02", 0.174], ["2021-06-14", 0.175], ["2021-06-20", 0.175], ["2021-06-21", 0.168], ["2021-06-21", 0.174], ["2021-06-23", 0.176], ["2021-07-15", 0.176], ["2021-07-15", 0.176], ["2021-07-20", 0.175], ["2021-07-20", 0.175], ["2021-07-22", 0.173], ["2021-07-28", 0.173], ["2021-07-28", 0.177], ["2021-07-29", 0.175], ["2021-07-31", 0.175], ["2021-08-04", 0.172], ["2021-08-05", 0.167], ["2021-08-06", 0.167], ["2021-08-06", 0.168], ["2021-08-07", 0.168], ["2021-08-09", 0.166], ["2021-08-10", 0.169], ["2021-08-11", 0.167], ["2021-08-12", 0.167], ["2021-08-24", 0.167], ["2021-08-25", 0.167], ["2021-08-25", 0.165], ["2021-08-27", 0.165], ["2021-08-27", 0.165], ["2021-09-02", 0.165], ["2021-09-03", 0.163], ["2021-09-04", 0.161], ["2021-09-05", 0.16], ["2021-09-06", 0.159], ["2021-09-08", 0.159], ["2021-09-09", 0.154], ["2021-09-09", 0.155], ["2021-09-12", 0.151], ["2021-09-16", 0.151], ["2021-09-17", 0.15], ["2021-09-21", 0.15], ["2021-09-22", 0.15], ["2021-09-25", 0.15], ["2021-09-28", 0.15], ["2021-09-30", 0.149], ["2021-10-03", 0.148], ["2021-10-04", 0.148], ["2021-10-05", 0.148], ["2021-10-06", 0.147], ["2021-10-07", 0.148], ["2021-10-10", 0.148], ["2021-10-10", 0.149], ["2021-10-24", 0.146], ["2021-10-26", 0.146], ["2021-11-02", 0.144], ["2021-11-03", 0.143], ["2021-11-04", 0.143], ["2021-11-08", 0.142], ["2021-11-08", 0.142], ["2021-11-11", 0.143], ["2021-11-11", 0.142], ["2021-11-14", 0.142], ["2021-11-16", 0.143], ["2021-11-16", 0.143], ["2021-11-17", 0.137], ["2021-11-19", 0.134], ["2021-11-20", 0.133], ["2021-11-21", 0.135], ["2021-11-22", 0.133], ["2021-11-22", 0.133], ["2021-11-24", 0.132], ["2021-11-25", 0.132], ["2021-11-26", 0.132], ["2021-11-27", 0.131], ["2021-11-29", 0.131], ["2021-11-29", 0.131], ["2021-11-30", 0.129], ["2021-12-02", 0.125], ["2021-12-03", 0.119], ["2021-12-03", 0.119]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6898/ | China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights' activists dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event. | Politics & Governance | For the purpose of this question, US or US-Allied nations includes the countries that belong to the Five Eyes or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. They are - Canada, USA, UK, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand.
The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.
The question will resolve positively if at least four of the above-mentioned nations do not participate in the event, and negatively if three or fewer boycott.
The question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.
For this question, a boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing without officially representing their country, and/or a nation holding a separate set of athletic events outside China | true | 2021-12-03 | Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-03 | 2021-03-23 | ["https://www.senate.gov/legislative/legislative_home.htm"] | binary | [["2021-04-02", 0.295], ["2021-04-03", 0.449], ["2021-04-04", 0.502], ["2021-04-05", 0.498], ["2021-04-06", 0.482], ["2021-04-07", 0.479], ["2021-04-09", 0.465], ["2021-04-11", 0.466], ["2021-04-13", 0.463], ["2021-04-14", 0.44], ["2021-04-16", 0.407], ["2021-04-16", 0.402], ["2021-04-18", 0.402], ["2021-04-21", 0.401], ["2021-04-23", 0.403], ["2021-04-23", 0.401], ["2021-04-25", 0.4], ["2021-04-26", 0.398], ["2021-04-29", 0.399], ["2021-04-30", 0.401], ["2021-05-01", 0.398], ["2021-05-12", 0.399], ["2021-05-14", 0.394], ["2021-05-17", 0.394], ["2021-05-17", 0.398], ["2021-05-22", 0.398], ["2021-05-23", 0.4], ["2021-05-25", 0.4], ["2021-05-26", 0.399], ["2021-05-28", 0.397], ["2021-05-29", 0.397], ["2021-05-30", 0.397], ["2021-06-03", 0.398], ["2021-06-08", 0.396], ["2021-06-08", 0.396], ["2021-06-10", 0.395], ["2021-06-13", 0.395], ["2021-06-20", 0.395], ["2021-06-21", 0.395], ["2021-06-22", 0.395], ["2021-06-26", 0.395], ["2021-07-04", 0.395], ["2021-07-05", 0.395], ["2021-07-07", 0.395], ["2021-07-12", 0.395], ["2021-07-15", 0.395], ["2021-07-17", 0.394], ["2021-07-19", 0.394], ["2021-07-20", 0.394], ["2021-07-23", 0.394], ["2021-07-24", 0.394], ["2021-07-25", 0.393], ["2021-08-11", 0.393], ["2021-08-18", 0.393], ["2021-08-20", 0.381], ["2021-08-20", 0.379], ["2021-08-26", 0.379], ["2021-09-04", 0.379], ["2021-10-02", 0.379], ["2021-10-03", 0.377], ["2021-10-05", 0.377], ["2021-10-05", 0.377], ["2021-10-07", 0.377], ["2021-10-08", 0.381], ["2021-10-11", 0.381], ["2021-10-29", 0.38], ["2021-10-30", 0.379], ["2021-11-03", 0.376], ["2021-11-25", 0.376], ["2021-12-12", 0.376], ["2021-12-13", 0.374], ["2021-12-14", 0.371], ["2021-12-15", 0.371], ["2021-12-18", 0.37], ["2021-12-19", 0.369], ["2021-12-22", 0.369], ["2021-12-29", 0.369], ["2021-12-31", 0.364], ["2022-01-01", 0.365], ["2022-01-02", 0.36], ["2022-01-04", 0.359], ["2022-01-06", 0.354], ["2022-01-08", 0.354], ["2022-01-09", 0.356], ["2022-01-10", 0.356], ["2022-01-12", 0.356], ["2022-01-13", 0.361], ["2022-01-17", 0.361], ["2022-01-17", 0.361], ["2022-01-19", 0.362], ["2022-01-19", 0.362], ["2022-01-21", 0.362], ["2022-01-22", 0.361], ["2022-01-23", 0.361], ["2022-01-25", 0.361], ["2022-01-26", 0.358], ["2022-01-27", 0.358], ["2022-01-29", 0.355], ["2022-01-30", 0.353], ["2022-01-31", 0.331], ["2022-02-01", 0.33]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6910/ | The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the filibuster, which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.
The rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster | true | 2022-02-01 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-29 | 2021-03-26 | [] | binary | [["2021-04-05", 0.61], ["2021-04-05", 0.554], ["2021-04-06", 0.538], ["2021-04-07", 0.588], ["2021-04-07", 0.588], ["2021-04-08", 0.579], ["2021-04-09", 0.579], ["2021-04-09", 0.573], ["2021-04-10", 0.573], ["2021-04-11", 0.569], ["2021-04-12", 0.595], ["2021-04-13", 0.597], ["2021-04-13", 0.595], ["2021-04-14", 0.598], ["2021-04-16", 0.598], ["2021-04-16", 0.598], ["2021-04-17", 0.591], ["2021-04-18", 0.593], ["2021-04-18", 0.593], ["2021-04-19", 0.591], ["2021-04-23", 0.591], ["2021-04-24", 0.59], ["2021-04-28", 0.59], ["2021-04-28", 0.585], ["2021-04-29", 0.585], ["2021-05-01", 0.584], ["2021-05-01", 0.582], ["2021-05-04", 0.582], ["2021-05-06", 0.579], ["2021-05-06", 0.58], ["2021-05-07", 0.58], ["2021-05-07", 0.582], ["2021-05-09", 0.575], ["2021-05-10", 0.576], ["2021-05-11", 0.576], ["2021-05-12", 0.582], ["2021-05-13", 0.579], ["2021-05-13", 0.586], ["2021-05-14", 0.588], ["2021-05-15", 0.588], ["2021-05-15", 0.588], ["2021-05-16", 0.59], ["2021-05-23", 0.58], ["2021-05-28", 0.57], ["2021-05-29", 0.56], ["2021-05-29", 0.56], ["2021-05-30", 0.551], ["2021-06-02", 0.549], ["2021-06-03", 0.51], ["2021-06-03", 0.495], ["2021-06-04", 0.487], ["2021-06-05", 0.48], ["2021-06-05", 0.474], ["2021-06-06", 0.44], ["2021-06-07", 0.422], ["2021-06-08", 0.421], ["2021-06-09", 0.417], ["2021-06-09", 0.41], ["2021-06-10", 0.408], ["2021-06-11", 0.407], ["2021-06-13", 0.404], ["2021-06-13", 0.402], ["2021-06-14", 0.397], ["2021-06-15", 0.395], ["2021-06-15", 0.392], ["2021-06-19", 0.391], ["2021-06-24", 0.384], ["2021-06-25", 0.38], ["2021-06-26", 0.378], ["2021-07-02", 0.378], ["2021-07-04", 0.376], ["2021-07-04", 0.367], ["2021-07-06", 0.367], ["2021-07-07", 0.348], ["2021-07-08", 0.347], ["2021-07-08", 0.338], ["2021-07-10", 0.335], ["2021-07-11", 0.335], ["2021-07-12", 0.325], ["2021-07-13", 0.321], ["2021-07-14", 0.317], ["2021-07-15", 0.317], ["2021-07-16", 0.317], ["2021-07-16", 0.313], ["2021-07-17", 0.302], ["2021-07-18", 0.301], ["2021-07-20", 0.3], ["2021-07-21", 0.294], ["2021-07-22", 0.297], ["2021-07-23", 0.292], ["2021-07-24", 0.292], ["2021-07-24", 0.282], ["2021-07-25", 0.281], ["2021-07-26", 0.275], ["2021-07-26", 0.275], ["2021-07-28", 0.276], ["2021-07-28", 0.275], ["2021-07-29", 0.275], ["2021-07-30", 0.272], ["2021-07-31", 0.236], ["2021-08-01", 0.223]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6920/ | Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock? | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021.
Fine Print
Local elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021.
This question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced.
Resolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. | true | 2021-08-01 | Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Fine Print
Source used will be MemoryBook (reprinted on Wikipedia page reprinting its stats), or another credible source should there be a strong consensus that this one has become incredible or obsolete. | true | 2021-08-12 | Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer? | metaculus | 0 |
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Gaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax. Most recently, his communications director has resigned. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively | true | 2021-10-01 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will this be significantly revised by June to criteria that any vaccinated American passport-holder could pass? | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve positively if entrance criteria for American passport holders is no different than what is was in January 2020, with one exception: additional requirement of proof of vaccination. This will be determined by available information on the Canadian government's website, canada.ca | true | 2021-05-15 | Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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In the late 20th century, the United States (acting through Zia al-Haq of Pakistan) provided assistance to a group of Afghanis known then as mujahedeen, who were trying to evict a Soviet occupation force. Some non-Afghanis gravitated to Afghanistan to help the mujahedeen. To coordinate these outsiders, a new organization was formed; its name was Al Qaeda. One of the outsiders, a Saudi engineer named Usama bin Laden (b. 1957), became the network's leader; he & al Qaeda were welcomed to establish a base of operations in Afghanistan after the Soviets left.
On September 11, 2001, in an event commonly referred to as 9/11, four terrorist cells totalling 19 men (most of them Saudi) executed a mission for which they had been trained by al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The mission caused significant loss of life in Arlington County, Virginia, NY County, New York, and Somerset County, Pennsylvania, as well as large-scale property damage in those locales. Soon after that, on October 7, 2001, the United States began overt military operations in Afghanistan.
Those operations expanded to other Asian nations during a 19-year military presence. On May 2, 2011, the U.S. Navy's "Seal Team Six" carried out a secret mission in Pakistan during which they killed Usama bin Laden.
U.S. forces remained in Afghanistan.. Following various "troop drawdowns", the U.S. agreed to leave that country before the 10th anniversary of bin Laden's death; but President Biden decided that some troops would remain there until the 20th anniversary of the al Qaeda attacks on civilians in the eastern U.S..
Such timetables are sometimes delayed by factors foreseeable & unforeseeable. This question asks:
Will U.S. military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?
Statements issued by civilian leaders of the U.S. military, or by any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will be deemed credible unless contradicted by very persuasive statements from any source familiar with the territory.
Resolution of this question will not be affected by the presence in Afghanistan (at any time) of Red Cross, "blue hats", or any Private military contractors or "PMCs". Similarly, troops guarding the US diplomatic presence and unreported special forces missions will not be counted.
2021-10-7 refers to October 7, 2021. | true | 2021-08-11 | Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods or Hormel (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if Muyuan Foods or Wens Foodstuff Group (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if Kerry Group applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, JBS in Brazil, the WH Group in Hong Kong, Mowi ASA in Norway, or the Marubeni Corporation in Japan.
Positive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.
If any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively | true | 2022-04-22 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-04-18 | ["https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/no-kill-burgers-us-firms-eye-green-light-to-sell-lab-grown-meat", "https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lab-grown-meat-approval"] | binary | [["2021-04-22", 0.45], ["2021-04-24", 0.439], ["2021-04-26", 0.362], ["2021-04-29", 0.374], ["2021-05-01", 0.372], ["2021-05-02", 0.351], ["2021-05-04", 0.351], ["2021-05-07", 0.351], ["2021-05-08", 0.343], ["2021-05-13", 0.342], ["2021-05-15", 0.347], ["2021-05-18", 0.34], ["2021-05-29", 0.338], ["2021-05-31", 0.338], ["2021-06-02", 0.347], ["2021-06-05", 0.375], ["2021-06-11", 0.375], ["2021-06-14", 0.367], ["2021-06-16", 0.366], ["2021-06-18", 0.406], ["2021-06-21", 0.427], ["2021-06-25", 0.429], ["2021-07-02", 0.43], ["2021-07-15", 0.432], ["2021-07-16", 0.431], ["2021-07-19", 0.431], ["2021-07-21", 0.43], ["2021-07-26", 0.43], ["2021-08-03", 0.425], ["2021-08-05", 0.42], ["2021-08-07", 0.414], ["2021-08-10", 0.425], ["2021-08-12", 0.425], ["2021-08-17", 0.425], ["2021-08-18", 0.428], ["2021-08-24", 0.431], ["2021-08-27", 0.435], ["2021-08-27", 0.435], ["2021-09-04", 0.435], ["2021-09-10", 0.436], ["2021-09-12", 0.44], ["2021-09-15", 0.448], ["2021-09-21", 0.452], ["2021-09-21", 0.452], ["2021-09-24", 0.455], ["2021-09-26", 0.453], ["2021-10-01", 0.452], ["2021-10-01", 0.456], ["2021-10-05", 0.456], ["2021-10-06", 0.456], ["2021-10-19", 0.451], ["2021-10-23", 0.45], ["2021-10-23", 0.449], ["2021-10-30", 0.448], ["2021-10-30", 0.448], ["2021-11-03", 0.447], ["2021-11-06", 0.447], ["2021-11-08", 0.444], ["2021-11-11", 0.439], ["2021-11-25", 0.439], ["2021-11-25", 0.438], ["2021-11-28", 0.438], ["2021-12-04", 0.438], ["2021-12-07", 0.438], ["2021-12-09", 0.436], ["2021-12-14", 0.434], ["2021-12-15", 0.431], ["2021-12-18", 0.43], ["2021-12-20", 0.425], ["2021-12-29", 0.425], ["2021-12-30", 0.426], ["2022-01-08", 0.423], ["2022-01-10", 0.418], ["2022-01-12", 0.418], ["2022-01-14", 0.418], ["2022-01-24", 0.418], ["2022-01-24", 0.418], ["2022-01-27", 0.418], ["2022-02-13", 0.414], ["2022-02-15", 0.414], ["2022-02-17", 0.414], ["2022-02-19", 0.416], ["2022-02-24", 0.416], ["2022-02-25", 0.415], ["2022-03-07", 0.415], ["2022-03-11", 0.415], ["2022-03-13", 0.412], ["2022-03-15", 0.413], ["2022-03-17", 0.413], ["2022-03-19", 0.413], ["2022-03-24", 0.412], ["2022-04-04", 0.41], ["2022-04-07", 0.403], ["2022-04-09", 0.4], ["2022-04-11", 0.4], ["2022-04-14", 0.399], ["2022-04-14", 0.399], ["2022-04-17", 0.399], ["2022-04-19", 0.395], ["2022-04-22", 0.39], ["2022-04-22", 0.39]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7065/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat. The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that "Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat."
In the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The regulatory framework, established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.
Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?
This question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.
For a product to be deemed a "cultivated meat product", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body). | true | 2022-04-22 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2021-04-18 | [] | binary | [["2021-04-22", 0.67], ["2021-04-23", 0.224], ["2021-04-24", 0.173], ["2021-04-25", 0.162], ["2021-04-26", 0.155], ["2021-04-28", 0.149], ["2021-04-29", 0.149], ["2021-05-01", 0.148], ["2021-05-02", 0.145], ["2021-05-03", 0.142], ["2021-05-04", 0.145], ["2021-05-08", 0.144], ["2021-05-09", 0.144], ["2021-05-11", 0.148], ["2021-05-11", 0.146], ["2021-05-14", 0.149], ["2021-05-17", 0.149], ["2021-05-18", 0.153], ["2021-05-22", 0.156], ["2021-06-02", 0.157], ["2021-06-03", 0.158], ["2021-06-04", 0.158], ["2021-06-17", 0.169], ["2021-06-18", 0.167], ["2021-06-23", 0.167], ["2021-06-23", 0.167], ["2021-07-15", 0.166], ["2021-07-16", 0.167], ["2021-07-17", 0.166], ["2021-07-19", 0.166], ["2021-07-20", 0.166], ["2021-08-08", 0.167], ["2021-08-08", 0.167], ["2021-08-12", 0.168], ["2021-08-13", 0.168], ["2021-08-15", 0.169], ["2021-08-17", 0.168], ["2021-08-24", 0.168], ["2021-09-08", 0.169], ["2021-10-02", 0.169], ["2021-10-02", 0.171], ["2021-10-07", 0.171], ["2021-10-13", 0.17], ["2021-10-19", 0.169], ["2021-10-23", 0.168], ["2021-10-30", 0.167], ["2021-11-06", 0.166], ["2021-11-07", 0.164], ["2021-11-17", 0.164], ["2021-11-17", 0.161], ["2021-11-25", 0.159], ["2021-11-25", 0.158], ["2021-11-26", 0.157], ["2021-11-27", 0.156], ["2021-11-29", 0.155], ["2021-12-03", 0.155], ["2021-12-04", 0.155], ["2021-12-05", 0.154], ["2021-12-07", 0.153], ["2021-12-14", 0.153], ["2021-12-15", 0.153], ["2021-12-17", 0.152], ["2021-12-18", 0.152], ["2021-12-29", 0.151], ["2021-12-30", 0.15], ["2022-01-04", 0.15], ["2022-01-13", 0.149], ["2022-02-13", 0.147], ["2022-02-14", 0.147], ["2022-02-15", 0.146], ["2022-02-17", 0.146], ["2022-02-19", 0.15], ["2022-02-20", 0.15], ["2022-02-24", 0.149], ["2022-02-25", 0.151], ["2022-02-27", 0.15], ["2022-02-28", 0.148], ["2022-03-02", 0.147], ["2022-03-03", 0.147], ["2022-03-06", 0.146], ["2022-03-08", 0.144], ["2022-03-15", 0.142], ["2022-03-15", 0.14], ["2022-03-17", 0.14], ["2022-03-18", 0.138], ["2022-03-24", 0.138], ["2022-03-30", 0.136], ["2022-03-31", 0.136], ["2022-04-01", 0.135], ["2022-04-03", 0.135], ["2022-04-04", 0.131], ["2022-04-06", 0.129], ["2022-04-08", 0.129], ["2022-04-09", 0.127], ["2022-04-10", 0.126], ["2022-04-14", 0.125], ["2022-04-14", 0.125], ["2022-04-18", 0.126], ["2022-04-20", 0.125], ["2022-04-22", 0.118], ["2022-04-22", 0.114]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7068/ | A meat or dairy tax is a tax levied on the purchase or consumption of meat and/or other animal products to disincentivize the production or consumption of meat products.
Meat and dairy production is known to be a disproportional contributor of emissions, attributing approximately half of food-derived GHG emissions, while only accounting for one-third of the dietary energy intake worldwide (Broeks et al., 2020). Hence, many have advocated for a meat production or consumption tax (see Wikipedia). | Environment & Energy | This question resolves positively if a meat or dairy consumption tax is imposed by the US federal government, or by any country that is a EU member state (at the time when it imposes such a tax), by 2023-01-01 at 12:00PM EST.
Qualifying taxes include excise tax (i.e. a per unit tax that applies to a narrow range of products), or a sales tax (i.e. a tax levied on the sale of a good to its final end user and is charged every time that item is sold retail).
The tax must be applied to the meat of any of the following: cattle, pig, sheep, chicken; or to cow milk
Positive resolution requires that the consumption tax is applied nation-wide, and that the tax goes into effect by the resolution date.
An increase in VAT specific to meat and dairy products in any member state of the EU will also count towards positive resolution | true | 2022-04-22 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-07-02 | 2021-04-19 | [] | binary | [["2021-04-21", 0.75], ["2021-04-21", 0.76], ["2021-04-22", 0.765], ["2021-04-22", 0.71], ["2021-04-22", 0.622], ["2021-04-22", 0.58], ["2021-04-22", 0.582], ["2021-04-22", 0.59], ["2021-04-23", 0.592], ["2021-04-24", 0.618], ["2021-04-24", 0.61], ["2021-04-24", 0.613], ["2021-04-24", 0.613], ["2021-04-24", 0.614], ["2021-04-25", 0.616], ["2021-04-25", 0.608], ["2021-04-26", 0.612], ["2021-04-26", 0.612], ["2021-04-26", 0.598], ["2021-04-26", 0.6], ["2021-04-26", 0.596], ["2021-04-26", 0.591], ["2021-04-26", 0.596], ["2021-04-26", 0.591], ["2021-04-26", 0.605], ["2021-04-26", 0.608], ["2021-04-27", 0.608], ["2021-04-27", 0.614], ["2021-04-27", 0.614], ["2021-04-28", 0.616], ["2021-04-28", 0.623], ["2021-04-28", 0.616], ["2021-04-28", 0.616], ["2021-04-29", 0.594], ["2021-04-29", 0.594], ["2021-04-29", 0.594], ["2021-05-01", 0.594], ["2021-05-01", 0.594], ["2021-05-02", 0.595], ["2021-05-02", 0.61], ["2021-05-02", 0.61], ["2021-05-02", 0.613], ["2021-05-03", 0.614], ["2021-05-04", 0.614], ["2021-05-04", 0.605], ["2021-05-04", 0.609], ["2021-05-07", 0.607], ["2021-05-09", 0.607], ["2021-05-09", 0.607], ["2021-05-09", 0.615], ["2021-05-11", 0.61], ["2021-05-11", 0.61], ["2021-05-11", 0.625], ["2021-05-12", 0.627], ["2021-05-12", 0.628], ["2021-05-12", 0.628], ["2021-05-12", 0.629], ["2021-05-12", 0.635], ["2021-05-13", 0.634], ["2021-05-16", 0.633], ["2021-05-16", 0.635], ["2021-05-16", 0.639], ["2021-05-16", 0.639], ["2021-05-17", 0.639], ["2021-05-17", 0.64], ["2021-05-18", 0.64], ["2021-05-18", 0.641], ["2021-05-18", 0.641], ["2021-05-18", 0.65], ["2021-05-18", 0.651], ["2021-05-19", 0.651], ["2021-05-19", 0.651], ["2021-05-20", 0.653], ["2021-05-20", 0.654], ["2021-05-20", 0.654], ["2021-05-23", 0.66], ["2021-05-23", 0.66], ["2021-05-23", 0.66], ["2021-05-23", 0.66], ["2021-05-23", 0.66], ["2021-05-23", 0.657], ["2021-05-24", 0.656], ["2021-05-24", 0.656], ["2021-05-25", 0.659], ["2021-05-25", 0.661], ["2021-05-25", 0.661], ["2021-05-27", 0.664], ["2021-05-28", 0.664], ["2021-05-29", 0.664], ["2021-05-30", 0.668], ["2021-05-30", 0.668], ["2021-05-30", 0.668], ["2021-05-30", 0.668], ["2021-05-30", 0.67], ["2021-05-31", 0.668], ["2021-05-31", 0.667], ["2021-05-31", 0.668], ["2021-05-31", 0.664], ["2021-05-31", 0.663], ["2021-05-31", 0.666], ["2021-05-31", 0.665]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7069/ | From Inverse,
In December 2020, the government enacted the Intelligence Authorization Act, which called for the release of an unclassified and all-sources report on unidentified aerial phenomenon (UAP) — the official military term used for unidentified flying objects. The act was included in the mammoth appropriations bill that also included financial aid checks for people living with the economic fallout from Covid-19.
The report will include a thorough analysis of
Available data
Intelligence reporting on UAPs
It will be presented to the congressional intelligence and armed services committees on UAPs.
[...] The Pentagon report is set to be released on June 1. | Security & Defense | The Pentagon report on UAPs is said to "dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations" if the report states in some concluding section, or executive summary, that it finds either of the following explanations "unlikely", "improbable", "untenable", or some other synonym of those words,
That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question were at least partly created or deployed in secret by some society or body of people, including an organization of some government.
That the best explanation for UAP videos and other media is that the technologies in question come at least partly from some source other than human civilization.
This question also resolves positively if the report concludes that non-secretive explanations, such as optical illusions, are supported in all cases examined.
Fine Print
A determination will be made with admin discretion. In the case that at least two moderators or admins dispute a positive resolution, it must resolve negatively. The community should be consulted to clarify the resolution criteria. | true | 2021-06-01 | Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations? | metaculus | 0 |
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However, there are reasons to doubt their success will continue into 2021.
Jürgen Gröbler the main coach retired in August 2020. He has been in integral part of British Rowing's set up for nearly 30 years
The GB men's sweep squad has been much less successful at the World Championships over the last Olympic cycle. winning no gold medals and only winning 5 bronze medals in that period. | Sports | Resolves positive if Great Britain win a gold medal in the 2-, 4- or 8+ at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Resolves negatively if they do not and all three events take place in 2021. Otherwise resolves ambiguously.
[1] Sweep rowing is a subset of rowing where the athletes each row with one oar. (As opposed to sculling, where each athlete carries two oars) | true | 2021-07-17 | Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Past charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here. | Environment & Energy | Resolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charitie | true | 2021-10-05 | Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program? | metaculus | 1 |
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Past charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here | Healthcare & Biology | Resolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities, as decided by Metaculus admins/moderators.
Examples of "family planning" related activities might be": supporting mothers during pregnancy or childbirth, giving information about the pros and cons of having a child, sex-education, access to contraceptives, etc. Per Charity Entrepeneurship's post, such a charity would most-likely focus on access to contraceptives after childbirth | true | 2021-10-05 | Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program? | metaculus | 0 |
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Ian Nepomniachtchi won the right to play Carlsen by winning the 2020-21 Candidates Tournament. Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young).
The expected format is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place. | Sports | This question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match | true | 2021-11-23 | Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time? | metaculus | 1 |
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However, Elon Musk is known to make bold statements about the capabilities of the cars his company produces, sometimes bordering on bad faith. According to Business Insider, in 2015, he predicted that the company's fully autonomous vehicles would be ready by 2018. In 2016, he said a Tesla would drive itself coast to coast the following year. In early 2019, Musk said he was certain that a Tesla "will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention - this year." | Science & Tech | For the definition of fully autonomous cars, we'll be referencing the "self driving level 5", as defined by the SAE International: "the vehicle performs all driving tasks under all conditions. Zero human attention or interaction is required." We will allow cars that need human override in extreme circumstances, but we expect less than one override per car in a typical year. Besides being autonomous, the vehicle will have to perform as well as (or better than) a normal car with an average driver.
Elon Musk raised valid concerns about the regulatory environment, which might cause a delay in the adoption of the technology. I believe however that, in the case of a successful development of the required software updates and/or new prototypes, Tesla will provide enough information to the press to allow for the publication of unequivocal articles referencing explicitly the tested unit's compliance with "self driving level 5" requirements as defined by the SAE International. The resolution criteria will be the publication of such articles in at least two publications among the following: The New York Times; The Economist; Financial Times; The Wall Street Journal ; The Atlantic; The Washington Post.
Fine Print
As of April 2021, no such vehicle exists for sale to the general public anywhere in the world. Consequently, no technology available to use by the public until now can alone justify the positive resolution of this question. | true | 2021-10-31 | Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question asks: | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve on the basis of credible media reports. It does not matter when the election takes place. If a recall election does not take place before the 2022 gubernatorial election then this resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple recall elections prior to the 2022 gubernatorial election, only the first one counts | true | 2021-09-13 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election? | metaculus | 1 |
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There are currently no vaccines approved for use in children under 16, though on 9 April 2021 Pfizer requested an amendment to its authorization to extend to the 12-15 year old age group.
In March 2021, Pfizer announced it began testing its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years, with plans to expand to 2 to 5 years and then to 6 months to 2 years. Also in March 2021, Moderna announced a trial in children 6 months to 12 years of age. In early April 2021, Janssen announced it was testing its vaccine in the 12-17 age group.
Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?
This question resolves on the basis of a press announcement by the FDA stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for children under 12 years of age. For this to resolve positively, such an authorization should cover an age group of at least seven years — for instance, an authorization for 5-11 year olds (inclusive) would count but 9-11 year olds (inclusive) would not. | true | 2021-08-01 | Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020.
Of particular concern to public health authorities in Virginia are SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination.
The U.S. CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants. For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest:
Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429.
Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are no VOHCs.
Of the five variants categorized under these categories (all five are VOCs), as of 27 April 2021 there are four that cause "reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera" (indicating they are able to partially evade immunity induced by infection and vaccination): P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. As of 27 April 2021, 8.8% of total available sequences in Virginia are one of these four VOCs: 2.3% B.1.351, 6.0% B.1.427/B.1.429, 0.5% P.1. | Healthcare & Biology | This question will resolve on the basis of the most recent update of the "Unweighted Proportions of Variants of Concern and Other Lineages by State or Jurisdiction" table on the U.S. CDC's "Variant Proportions" page. The percentages of VOCs that cause "reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera" will be added up for the two-week period ending 11 September 2021.
If between now and 11 September there are additional variants classified as variants of concern that cause "reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera," these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the four variants of concern that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure.
*27 July edit: Any additional variants that as of question resolution on 1 October are classified by the CDC as variants of concern that cause "reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera" will count toward the total percent figure. | true | 2021-07-29 | Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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The UVA Biocomplexity Institute has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including projections and a slide deck with with data and results, updated weekly. This includes assigning a case trajectory (see slides 8 and 9) to each of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties.
Trajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are:
Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak
Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down.
Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge
In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. | Healthcare & Biology | Trajectories resolve based on the slide decks posted on the Virginia Department of Health's COVID-19 Data Insights Blog. The question resolves ambiguously if the UVA Biocomplexity stops publishing district trajectories, or eliminates the "Declining" or "Plateau" categories prior to a "Yes" resolution. However, changes in method or criteria do not affect resolution. Surge trajectories are also published on the UVA Biocomplexity Institute's COVID-19 Pandemic Response page and in the UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard. However, these are preliminary and do not affect resolution.
The Virginia Department of Health reports weekly case data by health district. Population data is based on the latest Vintage Bridged-Race Postcensal Population Estimates. (Note: These are usually updated in July).
*19 July 2021 clarification: A 3 consecutive week period here means there must be a single three-week period in which all health districts are in decline or plateau or have less than 5 cases per 100k. | true | 2021-08-01 | Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-01 | 2021-04-29 | [] | binary | [["2021-05-09", 0.15], ["2021-05-10", 0.862], ["2021-05-11", 0.861], ["2021-05-12", 0.867], ["2021-05-14", 0.868], ["2021-05-15", 0.867], ["2021-05-16", 0.868], ["2021-05-17", 0.868], ["2021-05-18", 0.868], ["2021-05-22", 0.868], ["2021-05-23", 0.863], ["2021-05-23", 0.865], ["2021-05-26", 0.865], ["2021-05-28", 0.862], ["2021-05-28", 0.863], ["2021-05-29", 0.863], ["2021-05-30", 0.863], ["2021-06-01", 0.865], ["2021-06-02", 0.865], ["2021-06-06", 0.865], ["2021-06-07", 0.867], ["2021-06-18", 0.867], ["2021-06-19", 0.867], ["2021-06-21", 0.87], ["2021-06-26", 0.87], ["2021-06-28", 0.87], ["2021-07-02", 0.872], ["2021-07-03", 0.873], ["2021-07-09", 0.873], ["2021-07-10", 0.873], ["2021-07-12", 0.873], ["2021-07-13", 0.873], ["2021-07-15", 0.874], ["2021-07-18", 0.875], ["2021-07-19", 0.875], ["2021-07-20", 0.878], ["2021-07-21", 0.884], ["2021-07-22", 0.887], ["2021-07-23", 0.888], ["2021-07-24", 0.89], ["2021-07-25", 0.89], ["2021-07-26", 0.891], ["2021-07-27", 0.89], ["2021-07-28", 0.892], ["2021-07-30", 0.892], ["2021-08-01", 0.893], ["2021-08-02", 0.894], ["2021-08-03", 0.894], ["2021-08-05", 0.895], ["2021-08-06", 0.895], ["2021-08-07", 0.893], ["2021-08-08", 0.895], ["2021-08-09", 0.897], ["2021-08-10", 0.898], ["2021-08-12", 0.899], ["2021-08-13", 0.899], ["2021-08-15", 0.897], ["2021-08-23", 0.897], ["2021-08-23", 0.897], ["2021-08-31", 0.899], ["2021-09-07", 0.9], ["2021-09-08", 0.9], ["2021-09-13", 0.901], ["2021-09-17", 0.902], ["2021-09-17", 0.903], ["2021-09-28", 0.903], ["2021-09-29", 0.903], ["2021-09-30", 0.904], ["2021-10-03", 0.904], ["2021-10-04", 0.904], ["2021-10-05", 0.905], ["2021-10-23", 0.906], ["2021-10-25", 0.907], ["2021-10-26", 0.908], ["2021-10-28", 0.909], ["2021-10-29", 0.909], ["2021-10-30", 0.91], ["2021-11-01", 0.912], ["2021-11-02", 0.912], ["2021-11-04", 0.912], ["2021-11-06", 0.914], ["2021-11-06", 0.917], ["2021-11-08", 0.917], ["2021-11-08", 0.915], ["2021-11-09", 0.915], ["2021-11-11", 0.916], ["2021-11-11", 0.916], ["2021-11-13", 0.917], ["2021-11-14", 0.918], ["2021-11-16", 0.919], ["2021-11-16", 0.919], ["2021-11-18", 0.921], ["2021-11-19", 0.921], ["2021-11-21", 0.921], ["2021-11-22", 0.921], ["2021-11-24", 0.922], ["2021-11-25", 0.925], ["2021-11-26", 0.927], ["2021-11-28", 0.927], ["2021-11-29", 0.934], ["2021-11-30", 0.941]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7138/ | Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.
Johnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic.
As of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair.
The spending watchdog said there were "reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred".
The PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to "secretly pay".
Mr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp "personally", but would not say who had paid the initial bill.
As of late April 2021, Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling, a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case | true | 2021-12-01 | Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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a private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.
The city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.
The city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.
For an in-depth review of the project, see this post by Scott Alexander.
Scott forecasted there was a 30% chance that Próspera would have a population >= 1,000 in 2021. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positive if the population (according to credible sources) of Próspera is >= 1000 at any point during 2021.
If no sources claim this, but Scott Alexander resolves his prediction positively, then this question resolves positive (at the admin's discretion, to avoid him personally gaming the system).
If not, it resolves negative.
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But the Long March 5B has entered orbit and will undergo an uncontrolled reentry. While most of the earth is uninhabited, an uncontrolled reentry presents some risk of injury or damage to inhabited areas. The Long March 5B will not be the largest uncontrolled reentry but it will be the largest in the last several decades according to Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer tracking the orbit of the Long March 5B. | Security & Defense | Resolution will be by reliable media report that at least one person was injured, or any amount of damage was caused, by debris from the Long March 5B core stage | true | 2021-05-11 | Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage? | metaculus | 0 |
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On May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law.
Further, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial.
The motions can be read here. (PDF) | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively | true | 2022-01-01 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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In the most recent parliamentary election in this constituency, held in December 2019, the Labour Party won 22,594 votes, or 42.7% of the total number of valid votes. The Conservative Party won 19,069 votes, or 36% of the total. Labour won the seat with a majority of 3,525, or 6.7%. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if the Conservative and Unionist Party candidate wins the by-election held to fill the vacancy left by Tracy Brabin's resignation.
Fine Print
In the event that this question is still open on polling day, it should close retroactive to 08:00 BST on the day that polls open. | true | 2021-06-19 | Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election? | metaculus | 0 |
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Pedro Castillo is a teacher and trade unionist from a rural part of Peru. He is a leader of the leftist Free Peru party. Several Free Peru party members have had ties to the Shining Path (a once very powerful leftist guerilla movement with a terrible human rights record). In the first round, Castillo was initially polling at only 3% but surprised everyone when his support surged to win the first round with 19%.
Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of dictator Alberto Fujimori and former first-lady. She is the leader of the right-wing Popular Force party which came in second place with 13% on the first round. If elected, she might pardon her father who currently is incarcerated in a Peruvian jail. Fujimori, and many members of her party, are currently facing corruption charges.
Peru is suffering from the devastating impact of the coronavirus on peoples' health and on the economy. This combined with the high levels of political corruption may have caused people to vote for candidates who are polar opposites on the political spectrum. | Politics & Governance | Resolution: Peru ONPE, the official organization that runs Peru's elections.
Resolves ambiguously if there is no second round of the election in 2021 | true | 2021-06-05 | Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election? | metaculus | 1 |
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These restrictions include restricting all indoor gatherings involving over 5 people indoors or 10 people outdoors.
Under Level 4 restrictions, members of the public are only allowed to leave home to buy food, seek medical care and for work needs. | Healthcare & Biology | This can be resolved by checking the English press release on the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control website on June 1st. If an announcement stating that Taipei has entered Level 4 restrictions was made by May 31st, then the question is resolved positively. If there is no such announcement then the question is resolved negatively | true | 2021-05-25 | Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-30 | 2021-05-18 | ["https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/"] | binary | [["2021-05-19", 0.15], ["2021-05-20", 0.189], ["2021-05-20", 0.182], ["2021-05-20", 0.158], ["2021-05-21", 0.149], ["2021-05-21", 0.146], ["2021-05-21", 0.145], ["2021-05-21", 0.143], ["2021-05-22", 0.14], ["2021-05-22", 0.138], ["2021-05-23", 0.134], ["2021-05-23", 0.133], ["2021-05-26", 0.133], ["2021-05-26", 0.133], ["2021-05-27", 0.127], ["2021-05-30", 0.127], ["2021-05-30", 0.126], ["2021-06-02", 0.125], ["2021-06-04", 0.125], ["2021-06-04", 0.123], ["2021-06-06", 0.121], ["2021-06-11", 0.121], ["2021-06-11", 0.117], ["2021-06-11", 0.115], ["2021-06-13", 0.111], ["2021-06-13", 0.11], ["2021-06-16", 0.107], ["2021-06-17", 0.107], ["2021-06-20", 0.109], ["2021-06-24", 0.11], ["2021-06-25", 0.109], ["2021-06-27", 0.108], ["2021-07-08", 0.108], ["2021-07-15", 0.107], ["2021-07-16", 0.107], ["2021-07-19", 0.108], ["2021-07-19", 0.108], ["2021-07-20", 0.104], ["2021-07-21", 0.104], ["2021-07-28", 0.103], ["2021-07-30", 0.1], ["2021-08-05", 0.098], ["2021-08-06", 0.098], ["2021-08-09", 0.098], ["2021-08-18", 0.098], ["2021-08-21", 0.099], ["2021-08-21", 0.098], ["2021-08-22", 0.098], ["2021-08-25", 0.098], ["2021-08-26", 0.096], ["2021-08-26", 0.096], ["2021-08-27", 0.096], ["2021-08-30", 0.096], ["2021-09-02", 0.096], ["2021-09-03", 0.094], ["2021-09-05", 0.093], ["2021-09-07", 0.091], ["2021-09-08", 0.091], ["2021-09-09", 0.09], ["2021-09-14", 0.088], ["2021-09-14", 0.088], ["2021-09-14", 0.087], ["2021-09-15", 0.086], ["2021-09-15", 0.086], ["2021-09-16", 0.084], ["2021-09-17", 0.084], ["2021-09-22", 0.083], ["2021-09-27", 0.083], ["2021-09-30", 0.082], ["2021-09-30", 0.082], ["2021-10-01", 0.081], ["2021-10-03", 0.08], ["2021-10-07", 0.08], ["2021-10-07", 0.08], ["2021-10-11", 0.078], ["2021-10-13", 0.078], ["2021-10-13", 0.077], ["2021-10-14", 0.077], ["2021-10-19", 0.077], ["2021-10-26", 0.076], ["2021-10-27", 0.076], ["2021-10-31", 0.075], ["2021-11-01", 0.075], ["2021-11-02", 0.075], ["2021-11-02", 0.077], ["2021-11-03", 0.078], ["2021-11-03", 0.077], ["2021-11-03", 0.071], ["2021-11-03", 0.07], ["2021-11-04", 0.07], ["2021-11-06", 0.069], ["2021-11-07", 0.069], ["2021-11-07", 0.068], ["2021-11-08", 0.065], ["2021-11-08", 0.064], ["2021-11-08", 0.066], ["2021-11-09", 0.057], ["2021-11-09", 0.054], ["2021-11-09", 0.053], ["2021-11-10", 0.052], ["2021-11-10", 0.052]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7220/ | Background
Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.
However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?
Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.
Sources for live-updates:
The Times of Israel
Al Jazeera
Question
For this question, you are asked to forecast:
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Implication: The deadliest war between Israel and Palestine since at least 2008
Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.
Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.
Base-Rate Data
UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/
Question with Resolution Criteria | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 2,500 Palestinian deaths in 2021 | true | 2021-11-10 | Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-29 | 2021-05-18 | ["https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/"] | binary | [["2021-05-19", 0.05], ["2021-05-19", 0.087], ["2021-05-19", 0.088], ["2021-05-20", 0.075], ["2021-05-20", 0.062], ["2021-05-20", 0.062], ["2021-05-20", 0.061], ["2021-05-20", 0.049], ["2021-05-20", 0.048], ["2021-05-20", 0.047], ["2021-05-20", 0.044], ["2021-05-20", 0.044], ["2021-05-20", 0.051], ["2021-05-20", 0.042], ["2021-05-21", 0.047], ["2021-05-21", 0.047], ["2021-05-21", 0.047], ["2021-05-21", 0.048], ["2021-05-21", 0.048], ["2021-05-21", 0.046], ["2021-05-21", 0.043], ["2021-05-22", 0.043], ["2021-05-22", 0.044], ["2021-05-23", 0.044], ["2021-05-23", 0.042], ["2021-05-27", 0.042], ["2021-05-30", 0.041], ["2021-05-30", 0.04], ["2021-06-04", 0.041], ["2021-06-06", 0.041], ["2021-06-13", 0.041], ["2021-06-14", 0.041], ["2021-06-16", 0.04], ["2021-06-17", 0.04], ["2021-06-20", 0.04], ["2021-06-24", 0.044], ["2021-06-27", 0.044], ["2021-07-08", 0.044], ["2021-07-20", 0.043], ["2021-07-24", 0.042], ["2021-07-25", 0.042], ["2021-07-25", 0.041], ["2021-07-25", 0.041], ["2021-07-25", 0.04], ["2021-07-25", 0.039], ["2021-07-26", 0.039], ["2021-07-26", 0.039], ["2021-07-26", 0.038], ["2021-07-26", 0.036], ["2021-07-27", 0.036], ["2021-07-28", 0.035], ["2021-07-28", 0.035], ["2021-07-28", 0.035], ["2021-08-05", 0.034], ["2021-08-05", 0.034], ["2021-08-09", 0.034], ["2021-08-18", 0.033], ["2021-08-18", 0.033], ["2021-08-25", 0.034], ["2021-08-30", 0.034], ["2021-09-03", 0.034], ["2021-09-05", 0.034], ["2021-09-07", 0.033], ["2021-09-09", 0.032], ["2021-09-14", 0.032], ["2021-09-14", 0.032], ["2021-09-14", 0.031], ["2021-09-16", 0.031], ["2021-09-23", 0.032], ["2021-09-23", 0.031], ["2021-09-30", 0.031], ["2021-09-30", 0.03], ["2021-10-01", 0.03], ["2021-10-03", 0.03], ["2021-10-11", 0.03], ["2021-10-19", 0.029], ["2021-10-26", 0.029], ["2021-11-01", 0.028], ["2021-11-02", 0.032], ["2021-11-02", 0.032], ["2021-11-02", 0.031], ["2021-11-02", 0.031], ["2021-11-02", 0.031], ["2021-11-03", 0.031], ["2021-11-03", 0.031], ["2021-11-03", 0.03], ["2021-11-03", 0.029], ["2021-11-03", 0.029], ["2021-11-07", 0.026], ["2021-11-07", 0.026], ["2021-11-08", 0.025], ["2021-11-08", 0.025], ["2021-11-08", 0.025], ["2021-11-08", 0.025], ["2021-11-09", 0.025], ["2021-11-09", 0.025], ["2021-11-09", 0.024], ["2021-11-09", 0.024], ["2021-11-09", 0.024], ["2021-11-09", 0.024], ["2021-11-10", 0.023]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7221/ | Background
Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.
However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?
Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.
Sources for live-updates:
The Times of Israel
Al Jazeera
Question
For this question, you are asked to forecast:
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Implication: 10x the war threshold
Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.
Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.
Base-Rate Data
UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/
Question with Resolution Criteria | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 10,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021 | true | 2021-11-10 | Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-31 | 2021-05-18 | ["https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/"] | binary | [["2021-05-19", 0.325], ["2021-05-20", 0.263], ["2021-05-20", 0.249], ["2021-05-20", 0.215], ["2021-05-21", 0.202], ["2021-05-21", 0.181], ["2021-05-22", 0.182], ["2021-05-22", 0.183], ["2021-05-23", 0.18], ["2021-05-23", 0.179], ["2021-05-26", 0.179], ["2021-05-27", 0.174], ["2021-05-27", 0.174], ["2021-05-30", 0.175], ["2021-05-31", 0.176], ["2021-06-02", 0.176], ["2021-06-06", 0.176], ["2021-06-07", 0.172], ["2021-06-11", 0.172], ["2021-06-11", 0.161], ["2021-06-11", 0.157], ["2021-06-13", 0.157], ["2021-06-13", 0.153], ["2021-06-17", 0.154], ["2021-06-20", 0.159], ["2021-06-24", 0.159], ["2021-06-24", 0.161], ["2021-06-25", 0.16], ["2021-06-27", 0.16], ["2021-06-27", 0.161], ["2021-07-08", 0.161], ["2021-07-15", 0.162], ["2021-07-19", 0.159], ["2021-07-20", 0.159], ["2021-07-20", 0.159], ["2021-07-20", 0.158], ["2021-07-25", 0.158], ["2021-07-25", 0.158], ["2021-07-28", 0.159], ["2021-07-30", 0.154], ["2021-07-30", 0.154], ["2021-08-06", 0.153], ["2021-08-09", 0.152], ["2021-08-09", 0.152], ["2021-08-12", 0.151], ["2021-08-18", 0.153], ["2021-08-22", 0.153], ["2021-08-25", 0.154], ["2021-08-25", 0.154], ["2021-08-27", 0.154], ["2021-08-30", 0.154], ["2021-09-03", 0.153], ["2021-09-05", 0.152], ["2021-09-05", 0.152], ["2021-09-07", 0.151], ["2021-09-09", 0.147], ["2021-09-09", 0.146], ["2021-09-14", 0.146], ["2021-09-14", 0.142], ["2021-09-16", 0.138], ["2021-09-17", 0.138], ["2021-09-18", 0.138], ["2021-09-20", 0.137], ["2021-09-21", 0.133], ["2021-09-22", 0.133], ["2021-09-27", 0.133], ["2021-09-30", 0.13], ["2021-10-01", 0.13], ["2021-10-03", 0.13], ["2021-10-05", 0.13], ["2021-10-06", 0.13], ["2021-10-07", 0.129], ["2021-10-11", 0.128], ["2021-10-13", 0.128], ["2021-10-14", 0.127], ["2021-10-19", 0.125], ["2021-10-26", 0.123], ["2021-10-27", 0.123], ["2021-10-27", 0.122], ["2021-10-28", 0.122], ["2021-10-31", 0.122], ["2021-11-02", 0.124], ["2021-11-02", 0.124], ["2021-11-03", 0.12], ["2021-11-03", 0.12], ["2021-11-03", 0.115], ["2021-11-03", 0.114], ["2021-11-04", 0.113], ["2021-11-04", 0.113], ["2021-11-05", 0.111], ["2021-11-05", 0.111], ["2021-11-06", 0.11], ["2021-11-07", 0.113], ["2021-11-07", 0.113], ["2021-11-07", 0.11], ["2021-11-08", 0.107], ["2021-11-08", 0.108], ["2021-11-08", 0.108], ["2021-11-09", 0.106], ["2021-11-09", 0.101], ["2021-11-10", 0.093]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7222/ | Background
Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.
However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?
Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.
Sources for live-updates:
The Times of Israel
Al Jazeera
Question
For this question, you are asked to forecast:
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008.
Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.
Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.
Base-Rate Data
UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/
Question with Resolution Criteria | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021 | true | 2021-11-10 | Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-31 | 2021-05-18 | ["https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/"] | binary | [["2021-05-19", 0.8], ["2021-05-20", 0.743], ["2021-05-21", 0.587], ["2021-05-22", 0.533], ["2021-05-22", 0.532], ["2021-05-23", 0.524], ["2021-05-24", 0.512], ["2021-05-24", 0.512], ["2021-05-25", 0.502], ["2021-05-26", 0.498], ["2021-05-27", 0.498], ["2021-05-30", 0.492], ["2021-05-30", 0.492], ["2021-06-02", 0.49], ["2021-06-06", 0.475], ["2021-06-07", 0.477], ["2021-06-11", 0.457], ["2021-06-11", 0.457], ["2021-06-17", 0.455], ["2021-06-20", 0.464], ["2021-06-20", 0.461], ["2021-06-24", 0.461], ["2021-06-25", 0.458], ["2021-06-27", 0.456], ["2021-07-08", 0.452], ["2021-07-08", 0.449], ["2021-07-09", 0.45], ["2021-07-09", 0.443], ["2021-07-11", 0.437], ["2021-07-15", 0.437], ["2021-07-19", 0.437], ["2021-07-19", 0.408], ["2021-07-20", 0.392], ["2021-07-20", 0.392], ["2021-07-21", 0.39], ["2021-07-25", 0.388], ["2021-07-28", 0.387], ["2021-08-05", 0.387], ["2021-08-05", 0.378], ["2021-08-09", 0.376], ["2021-08-09", 0.376], ["2021-08-12", 0.377], ["2021-08-18", 0.376], ["2021-08-22", 0.375], ["2021-08-24", 0.375], ["2021-08-24", 0.372], ["2021-08-25", 0.374], ["2021-08-27", 0.374], ["2021-08-30", 0.373], ["2021-08-30", 0.372], ["2021-08-31", 0.372], ["2021-09-03", 0.371], ["2021-09-05", 0.371], ["2021-09-07", 0.366], ["2021-09-08", 0.36], ["2021-09-09", 0.358], ["2021-09-10", 0.358], ["2021-09-13", 0.358], ["2021-09-14", 0.368], ["2021-09-14", 0.354], ["2021-09-15", 0.357], ["2021-09-15", 0.354], ["2021-09-16", 0.354], ["2021-09-18", 0.353], ["2021-09-22", 0.353], ["2021-09-24", 0.352], ["2021-09-30", 0.352], ["2021-10-01", 0.351], ["2021-10-01", 0.351], ["2021-10-03", 0.351], ["2021-10-05", 0.352], ["2021-10-05", 0.347], ["2021-10-06", 0.347], ["2021-10-07", 0.346], ["2021-10-11", 0.346], ["2021-10-13", 0.343], ["2021-10-14", 0.342], ["2021-10-16", 0.342], ["2021-10-18", 0.343], ["2021-10-18", 0.34], ["2021-10-19", 0.339], ["2021-10-19", 0.338], ["2021-10-21", 0.338], ["2021-10-22", 0.337], ["2021-10-25", 0.337], ["2021-10-26", 0.333], ["2021-10-27", 0.333], ["2021-10-28", 0.333], ["2021-11-01", 0.331], ["2021-11-02", 0.329], ["2021-11-02", 0.313], ["2021-11-03", 0.284], ["2021-11-04", 0.278], ["2021-11-04", 0.273], ["2021-11-05", 0.271], ["2021-11-06", 0.271], ["2021-11-07", 0.273], ["2021-11-07", 0.265], ["2021-11-08", 0.26], ["2021-11-09", 0.253], ["2021-11-10", 0.235]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7223/ | Background
Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.
However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?
Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.
Sources for live-updates:
The Times of Israel
Al Jazeera
Question
For this question, you are asked to forecast:
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Implications: (A) Another week of intense fighting, (B) Sharp escalation of fighting, (C) Ceasefire before renewed fighting by end of year, (D) Low-intensity, continue fighting throughout rest of year.
Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.
Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.
Base-Rate Data
UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/
Question with Resolution Criteria | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 400 Palestinian deaths in 2021 | true | 2021-11-10 | Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-31 | 2021-05-18 | ["https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/"] | binary | [["2021-05-19", 0.9], ["2021-05-20", 0.822], ["2021-05-21", 0.881], ["2021-05-22", 0.885], ["2021-05-23", 0.872], ["2021-05-24", 0.872], ["2021-05-25", 0.858], ["2021-05-27", 0.785], ["2021-05-28", 0.762], ["2021-05-30", 0.764], ["2021-06-01", 0.729], ["2021-06-02", 0.729], ["2021-06-03", 0.722], ["2021-06-04", 0.716], ["2021-06-06", 0.712], ["2021-06-11", 0.712], ["2021-06-12", 0.705], ["2021-06-15", 0.701], ["2021-06-16", 0.72], ["2021-06-17", 0.717], ["2021-06-19", 0.71], ["2021-06-20", 0.701], ["2021-06-23", 0.701], ["2021-06-25", 0.695], ["2021-06-27", 0.688], ["2021-06-28", 0.688], ["2021-07-01", 0.68], ["2021-07-08", 0.68], ["2021-07-08", 0.677], ["2021-07-11", 0.676], ["2021-07-12", 0.676], ["2021-07-15", 0.679], ["2021-07-16", 0.677], ["2021-07-19", 0.675], ["2021-07-25", 0.675], ["2021-07-27", 0.65], ["2021-07-28", 0.649], ["2021-08-04", 0.649], ["2021-08-05", 0.644], ["2021-08-06", 0.644], ["2021-08-07", 0.643], ["2021-08-08", 0.64], ["2021-08-09", 0.625], ["2021-08-13", 0.616], ["2021-08-14", 0.612], ["2021-08-15", 0.612], ["2021-08-17", 0.61], ["2021-08-19", 0.599], ["2021-08-19", 0.599], ["2021-08-21", 0.587], ["2021-08-22", 0.587], ["2021-08-24", 0.558], ["2021-08-26", 0.558], ["2021-08-27", 0.558], ["2021-08-29", 0.558], ["2021-08-31", 0.56], ["2021-09-01", 0.559], ["2021-09-03", 0.554], ["2021-09-05", 0.553], ["2021-09-08", 0.549], ["2021-09-10", 0.545], ["2021-09-13", 0.544], ["2021-09-14", 0.543], ["2021-09-15", 0.533], ["2021-09-18", 0.532], ["2021-09-19", 0.531], ["2021-09-21", 0.522], ["2021-09-23", 0.522], ["2021-09-28", 0.523], ["2021-09-28", 0.522], ["2021-09-30", 0.522], ["2021-10-01", 0.49], ["2021-10-02", 0.49], ["2021-10-03", 0.49], ["2021-10-04", 0.49], ["2021-10-05", 0.482], ["2021-10-07", 0.482], ["2021-10-08", 0.483], ["2021-10-09", 0.477], ["2021-10-10", 0.471], ["2021-10-11", 0.467], ["2021-10-12", 0.462], ["2021-10-14", 0.447], ["2021-10-15", 0.447], ["2021-10-17", 0.442], ["2021-10-18", 0.441], ["2021-10-19", 0.44], ["2021-10-21", 0.439], ["2021-10-21", 0.438], ["2021-10-25", 0.439], ["2021-10-27", 0.439], ["2021-10-28", 0.431], ["2021-10-28", 0.428], ["2021-10-30", 0.424], ["2021-10-31", 0.41], ["2021-11-02", 0.391], ["2021-11-04", 0.365], ["2021-11-05", 0.363], ["2021-11-06", 0.359], ["2021-11-08", 0.354], ["2021-11-10", 0.308]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7224/ | Background
Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.
However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?
Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.
Sources for live-updates:
The Times of Israel
Al Jazeera
Question
For this question, you are asked to forecast:
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?
Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008
Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.
Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.
Base-Rate Data
UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/
Question with Resolution Criteria | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if both the Wikipedia and Jewish Virtual Library pages report over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.
Fine Print
If only one of the sources reports over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 500 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively. | true | 2021-11-10 | Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-30 | 2021-05-18 | ["https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/", "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/"] | binary | [["2021-05-19", 0.325], ["2021-05-20", 0.41], ["2021-05-20", 0.372], ["2021-05-21", 0.321], ["2021-05-21", 0.321], ["2021-05-21", 0.311], ["2021-05-21", 0.302], ["2021-05-22", 0.3], ["2021-05-23", 0.285], ["2021-05-23", 0.277], ["2021-05-23", 0.277], ["2021-05-24", 0.273], ["2021-05-25", 0.269], ["2021-05-26", 0.263], ["2021-05-26", 0.258], ["2021-05-26", 0.248], ["2021-05-27", 0.248], ["2021-05-27", 0.24], ["2021-05-28", 0.24], ["2021-05-29", 0.228], ["2021-05-30", 0.222], ["2021-05-30", 0.223], ["2021-06-06", 0.223], ["2021-06-11", 0.218], ["2021-06-11", 0.215], ["2021-06-13", 0.214], ["2021-06-17", 0.212], ["2021-06-20", 0.212], ["2021-06-20", 0.218], ["2021-06-25", 0.216], ["2021-06-25", 0.216], ["2021-06-26", 0.217], ["2021-07-08", 0.218], ["2021-07-15", 0.217], ["2021-07-19", 0.215], ["2021-07-20", 0.215], ["2021-07-20", 0.215], ["2021-07-25", 0.213], ["2021-07-26", 0.209], ["2021-07-28", 0.209], ["2021-08-06", 0.209], ["2021-08-06", 0.207], ["2021-08-09", 0.207], ["2021-08-18", 0.201], ["2021-08-18", 0.204], ["2021-08-21", 0.201], ["2021-08-21", 0.203], ["2021-08-21", 0.194], ["2021-08-22", 0.193], ["2021-08-22", 0.196], ["2021-08-23", 0.196], ["2021-08-25", 0.197], ["2021-08-30", 0.196], ["2021-08-30", 0.196], ["2021-08-30", 0.195], ["2021-08-31", 0.195], ["2021-09-02", 0.193], ["2021-09-03", 0.193], ["2021-09-05", 0.192], ["2021-09-08", 0.191], ["2021-09-08", 0.19], ["2021-09-09", 0.189], ["2021-09-09", 0.188], ["2021-09-14", 0.185], ["2021-09-15", 0.184], ["2021-09-21", 0.184], ["2021-09-28", 0.183], ["2021-10-01", 0.181], ["2021-10-01", 0.18], ["2021-10-05", 0.179], ["2021-10-06", 0.178], ["2021-10-07", 0.178], ["2021-10-11", 0.178], ["2021-10-11", 0.177], ["2021-10-13", 0.176], ["2021-10-13", 0.175], ["2021-10-14", 0.175], ["2021-10-16", 0.174], ["2021-10-17", 0.174], ["2021-10-19", 0.173], ["2021-10-19", 0.173], ["2021-10-26", 0.17], ["2021-10-27", 0.17], ["2021-11-01", 0.169], ["2021-11-02", 0.169], ["2021-11-03", 0.163], ["2021-11-03", 0.159], ["2021-11-03", 0.15], ["2021-11-04", 0.149], ["2021-11-04", 0.147], ["2021-11-04", 0.147], ["2021-11-05", 0.145], ["2021-11-06", 0.145], ["2021-11-07", 0.143], ["2021-11-07", 0.141], ["2021-11-08", 0.136], ["2021-11-08", 0.137], ["2021-11-08", 0.137], ["2021-11-09", 0.137], ["2021-11-09", 0.12], ["2021-11-10", 0.112]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7225/ | Background
Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.
However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?
Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.
Sources for live-updates:
The Times of Israel
Al Jazeera
Question
For this question, you are asked to forecast:
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?
Implications: (A) Unless dramatic increase in fire rate, greatly extended fighting, (B) More foreign funding of Hamas than likely expected
Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.
Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?
Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.
Base-Rate Data
UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/
Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/
Question with Resolution Criteria | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if both the Wikipedia and Jewish Virtual Library pages report over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.
Fine Print
If only one of the sources reports over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 750 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively. | true | 2021-11-10 | Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-14 | 2021-05-20 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14626/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/", "https://gizmodo.com/coinbase-class-action-suits-sec-crypto-bitcoin-1849458641", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8729/alphabet-wins-casp15-for-protein-folding/", "https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/the-man-behind-a-%24100-million-dollar-trading/id1350247761?i=1000584151769&l=nb", "https://twitter.com/avi_eisen/status/1597503355823493120", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-25/sam-bankman-fried-and-matt-levine-on-how-to-make-money-in-crypto", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/529/will-bitcoin-and-etherium-be-the-two-highest-market-cap-cryptocurrencies-for-all-of-november-2017/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8563/7-day-avg-daily-cases-in-va-on-jan-7th/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8571/highest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-feb-4th/", "https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/StrawVulcan", "https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095903493", "https://t.me/FTX_Official/693630", "https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1590741263502147585", "https://ftx.com/trade/USDT/USD", "https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1590012124864348160"] | binary | [["2021-05-25", 0.35], ["2021-05-27", 0.18], ["2021-05-27", 0.18], ["2021-05-29", 0.158], ["2021-05-29", 0.158], ["2021-05-29", 0.142], ["2021-05-31", 0.138], ["2021-05-31", 0.138], ["2021-05-31", 0.15], ["2021-06-02", 0.15], ["2021-06-03", 0.132], ["2021-06-05", 0.127], ["2021-06-05", 0.122], ["2021-06-08", 0.121], ["2021-06-26", 0.121], ["2021-07-04", 0.118], ["2021-07-04", 0.118], ["2021-07-15", 0.117], ["2021-07-16", 0.117], ["2021-07-20", 0.116], ["2021-07-20", 0.116], ["2021-08-12", 0.162], ["2021-08-16", 0.162], ["2021-08-16", 0.156], ["2021-08-26", 0.157], ["2021-10-05", 0.157], ["2021-10-05", 0.157], ["2021-10-07", 0.157], ["2021-10-15", 0.154], ["2021-10-23", 0.151], ["2021-10-23", 0.151], ["2021-10-30", 0.151], ["2021-11-06", 0.151], ["2021-11-14", 0.149], ["2021-11-25", 0.149], ["2021-12-06", 0.146], ["2021-12-13", 0.146], ["2021-12-15", 0.147], ["2021-12-15", 0.147], ["2021-12-23", 0.143], ["2021-12-25", 0.138], ["2021-12-26", 0.138], ["2022-01-01", 0.137], ["2022-01-02", 0.132], ["2022-01-02", 0.141], ["2022-01-05", 0.14], ["2022-02-06", 0.14], ["2022-02-06", 0.136], ["2022-02-13", 0.136], ["2022-02-14", 0.136], ["2022-02-18", 0.122], ["2022-02-19", 0.122], ["2022-02-19", 0.116], ["2022-02-20", 0.116], ["2022-02-20", 0.111], ["2022-02-20", 0.111], ["2022-02-22", 0.107], ["2022-02-23", 0.105], ["2022-02-24", 0.104], ["2022-02-24", 0.103], ["2022-02-24", 0.103], ["2022-02-24", 0.104], ["2022-02-25", 0.104], ["2022-02-25", 0.103], ["2022-02-26", 0.1], ["2022-02-26", 0.097], ["2022-02-26", 0.097], ["2022-02-27", 0.09], ["2022-02-28", 0.088], ["2022-03-02", 0.088], ["2022-03-02", 0.086], ["2022-03-02", 0.086], ["2022-03-06", 0.087], ["2022-03-08", 0.081], ["2022-03-08", 0.082], ["2022-03-09", 0.079], ["2022-03-10", 0.079], ["2022-03-12", 0.083], ["2022-03-13", 0.083], ["2022-03-16", 0.083], ["2022-03-16", 0.076], ["2022-03-17", 0.075], ["2022-03-17", 0.075], ["2022-03-17", 0.072], ["2022-03-18", 0.07], ["2022-03-19", 0.079], ["2022-03-20", 0.079], ["2022-03-20", 0.077], ["2022-03-21", 0.076], ["2022-03-21", 0.074], ["2022-03-21", 0.074], ["2022-03-22", 0.073], ["2022-03-22", 0.072], ["2022-03-22", 0.07], ["2022-03-22", 0.069], ["2022-03-22", 0.069], ["2022-03-22", 0.067]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7230/ | FTX is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not FTX.US.
Counterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.
In the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to
Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users.
DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. | Economics & Business | This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.
A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.
A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.
A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.
A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.
If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.
In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is | true | 2022-03-22 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-08-16 | 2021-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2021-06-14", 0.325], ["2021-06-14", 0.35], ["2021-06-14", 0.362], ["2021-06-14", 0.362], ["2021-06-14", 0.462], ["2021-06-14", 0.462], ["2021-06-14", 0.494], ["2021-06-14", 0.494], ["2021-06-14", 0.507], ["2021-06-14", 0.53], ["2021-06-14", 0.531], ["2021-06-14", 0.506], ["2021-06-15", 0.5], ["2021-06-15", 0.5], ["2021-06-15", 0.506], ["2021-06-15", 0.486], ["2021-06-15", 0.477], ["2021-06-15", 0.482], ["2021-06-16", 0.455], ["2021-06-16", 0.455], ["2021-06-16", 0.438], ["2021-06-16", 0.443], ["2021-06-16", 0.444], ["2021-06-16", 0.447], ["2021-06-16", 0.447], ["2021-06-16", 0.455], ["2021-06-16", 0.453], ["2021-06-17", 0.465], ["2021-06-17", 0.465], ["2021-06-17", 0.471], ["2021-06-17", 0.485], ["2021-06-17", 0.492], ["2021-06-17", 0.496], ["2021-06-17", 0.504], ["2021-06-18", 0.503], ["2021-06-18", 0.503], ["2021-06-19", 0.503], ["2021-06-19", 0.508], ["2021-06-19", 0.509], ["2021-06-19", 0.51], ["2021-06-19", 0.51], ["2021-06-19", 0.512], ["2021-06-19", 0.515], ["2021-06-19", 0.511], ["2021-06-19", 0.515], ["2021-06-19", 0.519], ["2021-06-19", 0.52], ["2021-06-20", 0.52], ["2021-06-20", 0.518], ["2021-06-20", 0.519], ["2021-06-20", 0.52], ["2021-06-21", 0.524], ["2021-06-21", 0.523], ["2021-06-22", 0.523], ["2021-06-22", 0.527], ["2021-06-22", 0.532], ["2021-06-22", 0.533], ["2021-06-22", 0.533], ["2021-06-22", 0.533], ["2021-06-22", 0.537], ["2021-06-22", 0.537], ["2021-06-22", 0.539], ["2021-06-22", 0.541], ["2021-06-22", 0.547], ["2021-06-23", 0.548], ["2021-06-23", 0.55], ["2021-06-23", 0.55], ["2021-06-23", 0.553], ["2021-06-24", 0.555], ["2021-06-24", 0.562], ["2021-06-24", 0.562], ["2021-06-24", 0.564], ["2021-06-24", 0.562], ["2021-06-26", 0.564], ["2021-06-26", 0.565], ["2021-06-26", 0.567], ["2021-06-27", 0.567], ["2021-06-27", 0.563], ["2021-06-28", 0.563], ["2021-06-28", 0.564], ["2021-06-28", 0.563], ["2021-06-28", 0.563], ["2021-06-28", 0.569], ["2021-06-28", 0.57], ["2021-06-28", 0.577], ["2021-06-28", 0.581], ["2021-06-29", 0.581], ["2021-06-29", 0.593], ["2021-06-29", 0.592], ["2021-06-29", 0.591], ["2021-06-29", 0.591], ["2021-06-29", 0.591], ["2021-06-29", 0.594], ["2021-06-29", 0.595], ["2021-06-29", 0.595], ["2021-06-29", 0.596]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7246/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | There is speculation that the US federal government needs to declare first-ever official shortage declaration in the US West. That would mean mandatory water cutbacks in some states.
ABC News: US West prepares for possible 1st water shortage declaration.
NPR: Melting Snow Usually Means Water For The West. But This Year, It Might Not Be Enough
Will the U.S. Federal government issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021?
Resolves true if the US Federal government agency (most likely USBR) declares a water shortage in some states or regions in the US in 2021. The declaration must be published on relevant federal government website like United States Bureau of Reclamation, U.S Department of Interior, or Federal Register. | true | 2021-06-29 | Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-04 | 2021-05-29 | [] | binary | [["2021-05-31", 0.94], ["2021-06-01", 0.804], ["2021-06-02", 0.813], ["2021-06-02", 0.813], ["2021-06-03", 0.823], ["2021-06-04", 0.82], ["2021-06-05", 0.819], ["2021-06-05", 0.819], ["2021-06-06", 0.82], ["2021-06-09", 0.82], ["2021-06-16", 0.82], ["2021-06-16", 0.811], ["2021-06-18", 0.811], ["2021-06-19", 0.805], ["2021-06-20", 0.805], ["2021-06-20", 0.805], ["2021-06-22", 0.808], ["2021-06-22", 0.808], ["2021-07-02", 0.808], ["2021-07-03", 0.808], ["2021-07-06", 0.808], ["2021-07-07", 0.808], ["2021-07-08", 0.813], ["2021-07-09", 0.812], ["2021-07-10", 0.816], ["2021-07-10", 0.814], ["2021-07-11", 0.809], ["2021-07-15", 0.809], ["2021-07-20", 0.809], ["2021-07-20", 0.809], ["2021-07-27", 0.81], ["2021-07-28", 0.818], ["2021-07-29", 0.818], ["2021-08-01", 0.82], ["2021-08-04", 0.82], ["2021-08-05", 0.822], ["2021-08-06", 0.82], ["2021-08-07", 0.819], ["2021-08-08", 0.815], ["2021-08-09", 0.815], ["2021-08-20", 0.811], ["2021-08-24", 0.811], ["2021-08-25", 0.811], ["2021-08-27", 0.81], ["2021-08-28", 0.809], ["2021-08-29", 0.803], ["2021-08-30", 0.805], ["2021-08-31", 0.806], ["2021-09-02", 0.806], ["2021-09-03", 0.808], ["2021-09-04", 0.811], ["2021-09-04", 0.811], ["2021-09-05", 0.811], ["2021-09-07", 0.812], ["2021-09-08", 0.813], ["2021-09-09", 0.813], ["2021-09-10", 0.817], ["2021-09-11", 0.818], ["2021-09-13", 0.817], ["2021-09-14", 0.817], ["2021-09-16", 0.816], ["2021-09-16", 0.816], ["2021-09-17", 0.816], ["2021-09-18", 0.816], ["2021-09-19", 0.814], ["2021-09-20", 0.806], ["2021-09-22", 0.806], ["2021-09-24", 0.806], ["2021-09-25", 0.807], ["2021-09-25", 0.805], ["2021-09-26", 0.805], ["2021-09-27", 0.804], ["2021-09-27", 0.804], ["2021-09-29", 0.803], ["2021-09-30", 0.805], ["2021-10-04", 0.805], ["2021-10-05", 0.805], ["2021-10-06", 0.804], ["2021-10-07", 0.804], ["2021-10-13", 0.805], ["2021-10-15", 0.805], ["2021-10-15", 0.802], ["2021-10-16", 0.804], ["2021-10-17", 0.804], ["2021-10-17", 0.806], ["2021-10-19", 0.809], ["2021-10-20", 0.811], ["2021-10-21", 0.812], ["2021-10-22", 0.812], ["2021-10-22", 0.813], ["2021-10-24", 0.813], ["2021-10-25", 0.811], ["2021-10-25", 0.811], ["2021-10-27", 0.81], ["2021-10-27", 0.807], ["2021-10-28", 0.807], ["2021-10-28", 0.807], ["2021-10-29", 0.811], ["2021-10-30", 0.811], ["2021-10-31", 0.81], ["2021-10-31", 0.809]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7291/ | Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud.
According to the indictment, the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California.
Theranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data.
Holmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent.
Theranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America.
A turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018.
Holmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, subject to further legal wrangling, with the trial expected to commence on August 31. However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers, the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution.
If Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023.
If this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case | true | 2021-11-01 | Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-05-22 | 2021-05-31 | [] | binary | [["2021-06-06", 0.5], ["2021-06-09", 0.577], ["2021-06-10", 0.559], ["2021-06-12", 0.558], ["2021-06-14", 0.561], ["2021-06-19", 0.561], ["2021-06-20", 0.563], ["2021-07-01", 0.563], ["2021-07-15", 0.561], ["2021-07-19", 0.561], ["2021-07-20", 0.55], ["2021-07-25", 0.537], ["2021-07-28", 0.536], ["2021-08-09", 0.533], ["2021-08-09", 0.531], ["2021-08-13", 0.53], ["2021-08-15", 0.53], ["2021-08-18", 0.517], ["2021-08-19", 0.517], ["2021-08-26", 0.517], ["2021-08-27", 0.516], ["2021-09-07", 0.516], ["2021-09-09", 0.516], ["2021-09-14", 0.516], ["2021-09-21", 0.514], ["2021-09-22", 0.506], ["2021-09-26", 0.502], ["2021-10-05", 0.5], ["2021-10-07", 0.5], ["2021-10-11", 0.5], ["2021-10-19", 0.5], ["2021-10-21", 0.502], ["2021-10-24", 0.502], ["2021-10-25", 0.498], ["2021-10-28", 0.498], ["2021-10-30", 0.498], ["2021-11-06", 0.503], ["2021-11-06", 0.504], ["2021-12-06", 0.504], ["2021-12-08", 0.504], ["2021-12-10", 0.498], ["2021-12-14", 0.5], ["2021-12-17", 0.501], ["2021-12-17", 0.5], ["2021-12-22", 0.5], ["2021-12-26", 0.501], ["2021-12-31", 0.507], ["2022-01-03", 0.505], ["2022-01-17", 0.504], ["2022-01-23", 0.504], ["2022-01-24", 0.503], ["2022-01-26", 0.503], ["2022-01-29", 0.494], ["2022-02-01", 0.488], ["2022-02-05", 0.486], ["2022-02-07", 0.487], ["2022-02-09", 0.487], ["2022-02-14", 0.486], ["2022-02-16", 0.481], ["2022-02-19", 0.478], ["2022-02-20", 0.476], ["2022-02-22", 0.476], ["2022-02-23", 0.469], ["2022-02-24", 0.468], ["2022-02-26", 0.467], ["2022-03-02", 0.467], ["2022-03-04", 0.463], ["2022-03-07", 0.462], ["2022-03-08", 0.454], ["2022-03-11", 0.454], ["2022-03-12", 0.453], ["2022-03-16", 0.453], ["2022-03-17", 0.449], ["2022-03-19", 0.442], ["2022-03-22", 0.432], ["2022-03-24", 0.427], ["2022-03-28", 0.426], ["2022-03-31", 0.421], ["2022-04-03", 0.42], ["2022-04-03", 0.419], ["2022-04-08", 0.416], ["2022-04-10", 0.413], ["2022-04-11", 0.402], ["2022-04-13", 0.397], ["2022-04-17", 0.397], ["2022-04-19", 0.397], ["2022-04-21", 0.389], ["2022-04-23", 0.388], ["2022-04-25", 0.389], ["2022-04-27", 0.384], ["2022-04-30", 0.384], ["2022-05-02", 0.382], ["2022-05-04", 0.382], ["2022-05-06", 0.382], ["2022-05-09", 0.382], ["2022-05-11", 0.382], ["2022-05-13", 0.378], ["2022-05-16", 0.377], ["2022-05-18", 0.377], ["2022-05-21", 0.372], ["2022-05-22", 0.258]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7295/ | Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.
From Wikipedia:
The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.
All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.
The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition.
It resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition
If no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.
If the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.
If at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time.
Fine Print
"The next federal election" refers to the election for members of the House of Representatives of the 47th parliament of Australia.
Normally this would be at the same time as a half-Senate election (or a full Senate election in the case of a double dissolution), but in the unlikely event that the elections are held at different times, this question refers to the election for the House of Representatives only. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-05 | 2021-06-05 | ["https://www.congress.gov/calendars-and-schedules", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14328/its-time-for-new-years-resolutions/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/06/live-updates-on-house-speaker-vote-gop-leader-mccarthy-fights-for-his-political-future-in-historic-battle-for-the-gavel.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-as-house-speaker-before-2023-01-15/#comment-65313", "https://www.axios.com/2023/01/05/matt-gaetz-trump-house-speaker", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1610355058192916482", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/republicans-endorse-mccarthy-for-speaker-in-a-crucial-test-for-the-embattled-gop-leader.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1668540289", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector#2016"] | binary | [["2021-06-08", 0.23], ["2021-06-12", 0.049], ["2021-06-16", 0.048], ["2021-06-20", 0.047], ["2021-06-22", 0.048], ["2021-06-26", 0.047], ["2021-07-04", 0.046], ["2021-07-07", 0.044], ["2021-07-18", 0.044], ["2021-07-27", 0.043], ["2021-07-31", 0.043], ["2021-08-04", 0.043], ["2021-08-09", 0.043], ["2021-08-12", 0.042], ["2021-08-20", 0.043], ["2021-08-22", 0.043], ["2021-08-27", 0.043], ["2021-08-31", 0.042], ["2021-09-03", 0.041], ["2021-09-08", 0.042], ["2021-09-16", 0.041], ["2021-09-27", 0.041], ["2021-09-30", 0.041], ["2021-10-07", 0.041], ["2021-10-13", 0.041], ["2021-10-13", 0.041], ["2021-10-29", 0.041], ["2021-10-29", 0.04], ["2021-11-09", 0.04], ["2021-11-10", 0.04], ["2021-11-15", 0.04], ["2021-11-18", 0.044], ["2021-11-21", 0.046], ["2021-11-28", 0.046], ["2021-11-30", 0.046], ["2021-12-03", 0.046], ["2021-12-07", 0.045], ["2021-12-10", 0.049], ["2021-12-13", 0.049], ["2021-12-17", 0.048], ["2021-12-27", 0.047], ["2021-12-29", 0.047], ["2022-01-01", 0.047], ["2022-01-05", 0.046], ["2022-01-30", 0.045], ["2022-01-30", 0.047], ["2022-02-14", 0.048], ["2022-02-19", 0.047], ["2022-02-24", 0.047], ["2022-02-28", 0.047], ["2022-03-02", 0.047], ["2022-03-05", 0.047], ["2022-03-08", 0.047], ["2022-03-14", 0.047], ["2022-03-18", 0.046], ["2022-03-19", 0.046], ["2022-03-25", 0.045], ["2022-03-27", 0.044], ["2022-04-03", 0.044], ["2022-04-07", 0.042], ["2022-04-12", 0.042], ["2022-04-15", 0.038], ["2022-04-20", 0.038], ["2022-04-28", 0.038], ["2022-05-03", 0.039], ["2022-05-06", 0.039], ["2022-05-11", 0.04], ["2022-05-12", 0.041], ["2022-05-16", 0.04], ["2022-05-19", 0.04], ["2022-05-28", 0.04], ["2022-06-01", 0.04], ["2022-06-06", 0.039], ["2022-06-11", 0.039], ["2022-06-14", 0.039], ["2022-06-17", 0.041], ["2022-06-21", 0.041], ["2022-06-27", 0.041], ["2022-07-01", 0.041], ["2022-07-15", 0.04], ["2022-07-18", 0.04], ["2022-07-23", 0.04], ["2022-08-14", 0.041], ["2022-09-10", 0.041], ["2022-09-23", 0.039], ["2022-09-26", 0.042], ["2022-10-16", 0.042], ["2022-10-22", 0.042], ["2022-10-23", 0.041], ["2022-11-08", 0.04], ["2022-11-10", 0.04], ["2022-11-15", 0.04], ["2022-11-19", 0.039], ["2022-11-22", 0.039], ["2022-11-25", 0.039], ["2022-12-12", 0.039], ["2022-12-14", 0.039], ["2022-12-25", 0.039], ["2022-12-29", 0.038], ["2023-01-03", 0.035], ["2023-01-05", 0.034]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7322/ | From Wikipedia,
The speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.
From a recent Newsweek article,
Former President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.
Trump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.
"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years," Root said with excitement.
"That's so—that's so interesting," Trump responded.
The speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15, 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively | true | 2023-01-15 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-09-14 | 2021-06-05 | [] | binary | [["2021-06-08", 0.38], ["2021-06-08", 0.38], ["2021-06-08", 0.64], ["2021-06-08", 0.665], ["2021-06-08", 0.75], ["2021-06-08", 0.765], ["2021-06-08", 0.765], ["2021-06-08", 0.73], ["2021-06-08", 0.635], ["2021-06-08", 0.635], ["2021-06-08", 0.62], ["2021-06-08", 0.642], ["2021-06-09", 0.653], ["2021-06-09", 0.667], ["2021-06-09", 0.667], ["2021-06-09", 0.671], ["2021-06-09", 0.66], ["2021-06-09", 0.66], ["2021-06-09", 0.697], ["2021-06-09", 0.698], ["2021-06-10", 0.698], ["2021-06-10", 0.716], ["2021-06-12", 0.716], ["2021-06-13", 0.715], ["2021-06-14", 0.718], ["2021-06-17", 0.72], ["2021-06-19", 0.719], ["2021-07-02", 0.719], ["2021-07-03", 0.723], ["2021-07-05", 0.723], ["2021-07-09", 0.725], ["2021-07-19", 0.726], ["2021-07-20", 0.73], ["2021-07-20", 0.73], ["2021-08-18", 0.73], ["2021-08-18", 0.741], ["2021-08-20", 0.743], ["2021-08-22", 0.747], ["2021-08-26", 0.747]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7323/ | On June 4th 2021, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are calling it a potential game changer for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide can be taken orally.
The top 300 most prescribed drugs in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions. | Healthcare & Biology | Resolves positively if semaglutide, or a semaglutide-containing compound formulation approved for weight loss by the FDA, is among the top 300 most prescribed drugs in America for any calendar year up to and including 2031.
Fine Print
Preferred source: ClinCalc Drug Stats database. If it becomes unavailable, paywalled, discredited, etc, try to resolve according to another source that ultimately uses the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data from US HHS. | true | 2032-01-01 | Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032? | metaculus | 1 |
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