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2020-11-20 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.75], ["2020-06-05", 0.625], ["2020-06-05", 0.566], ["2020-06-05", 0.52], ["2020-06-05", 0.525], ["2020-06-05", 0.517], ["2020-06-05", 0.518], ["2020-06-05", 0.516], ["2020-06-05", 0.518], ["2020-06-05", 0.518], ["2020-06-06", 0.533], ["2020-06-06", 0.533], ["2020-06-06", 0.535], ["2020-06-06", 0.56], ["2020-06-06", 0.578], ["2020-06-06", 0.582], ["2020-06-06", 0.583], ["2020-06-07", 0.584], ["2020-06-07", 0.573], ["2020-06-07", 0.58], ["2020-06-08", 0.579], ["2020-06-08", 0.578], ["2020-06-08", 0.578], ["2020-06-08", 0.578], ["2020-06-08", 0.58], ["2020-06-09", 0.58], ["2020-06-09", 0.579], ["2020-06-10", 0.582], ["2020-06-10", 0.584], ["2020-06-11", 0.584], ["2020-06-11", 0.591], ["2020-06-11", 0.59], ["2020-06-11", 0.588], ["2020-06-12", 0.587], ["2020-06-14", 0.587], ["2020-06-17", 0.59], ["2020-06-17", 0.59], ["2020-06-28", 0.589], ["2020-06-29", 0.589], ["2020-07-08", 0.588], ["2020-07-09", 0.588], ["2020-07-15", 0.589], ["2020-07-17", 0.589], ["2020-07-21", 0.59], ["2020-07-28", 0.59], ["2020-07-28", 0.593], ["2020-07-28", 0.593], ["2020-07-28", 0.596], ["2020-07-29", 0.596], ["2020-07-29", 0.595], ["2020-07-29", 0.592], ["2020-07-30", 0.592], ["2020-07-31", 0.595], ["2020-07-31", 0.595], ["2020-08-01", 0.594], ["2020-08-04", 0.594], ["2020-08-11", 0.596], ["2020-08-14", 0.596], ["2020-08-18", 0.599], ["2020-08-18", 0.602], ["2020-08-19", 0.605], ["2020-08-19", 0.606], ["2020-08-24", 0.605], ["2020-08-25", 0.605], ["2020-08-25", 0.609], ["2020-08-27", 0.61], ["2020-08-29", 0.611], ["2020-08-30", 0.611], ["2020-09-01", 0.614], ["2020-09-02", 0.614], ["2020-09-02", 0.615], ["2020-09-02", 0.615], ["2020-09-04", 0.619], ["2020-09-07", 0.619], ["2020-09-11", 0.618], ["2020-09-11", 0.619], ["2020-09-11", 0.619], ["2020-09-12", 0.619], ["2020-09-12", 0.619], ["2020-09-15", 0.619], ["2020-09-15", 0.624], ["2020-09-15", 0.624], ["2020-09-15", 0.629], ["2020-09-16", 0.629], ["2020-09-16", 0.629], ["2020-09-16", 0.629], ["2020-09-16", 0.631], ["2020-09-16", 0.631], ["2020-09-16", 0.632], ["2020-09-17", 0.627], ["2020-09-17", 0.627], ["2020-09-18", 0.627], ["2020-09-19", 0.627], ["2020-09-20", 0.627], ["2020-09-21", 0.632], ["2020-09-21", 0.632], ["2020-09-21", 0.632], ["2020-09-21", 0.633], ["2020-09-21", 0.634], ["2020-09-21", 0.633], ["2020-09-21", 0.635]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4559/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Booker Prize is an annual award for the best original novel written in the English Language and published in the United Kingdom. A longlist of 13 potential winners is published in July, while a shortlist of 6 is published in September.
This question asks: Will the winner of the 2020 Booker Prize be female?
This question is timed to close one week after the announcement of the shortlist. For the purposes of resolution, the gender of the author will be considered to be their gender identity at the time they are announced as the winner of the prize. Please note that this question refers to The Booker Prize and not The International Booker Prize
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-09-21 | Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-19 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.505], ["2020-06-05", 0.639], ["2020-06-05", 0.639], ["2020-06-05", 0.751], ["2020-06-06", 0.759], ["2020-06-07", 0.759], ["2020-06-07", 0.762], ["2020-06-08", 0.764], ["2020-06-08", 0.765], ["2020-06-09", 0.765], ["2020-06-10", 0.76], ["2020-06-11", 0.766], ["2020-06-11", 0.758], ["2020-06-11", 0.761], ["2020-06-12", 0.78], ["2020-06-12", 0.768], ["2020-06-13", 0.76], ["2020-06-13", 0.736], ["2020-06-13", 0.733], ["2020-06-14", 0.736], ["2020-06-15", 0.734], ["2020-06-16", 0.732], ["2020-06-16", 0.731], ["2020-06-16", 0.731], ["2020-06-17", 0.725], ["2020-06-17", 0.728], ["2020-06-18", 0.728], ["2020-06-22", 0.729], ["2020-06-23", 0.73], ["2020-06-24", 0.73], ["2020-06-26", 0.728], ["2020-06-27", 0.732], ["2020-06-30", 0.733], ["2020-07-02", 0.734], ["2020-07-03", 0.737], ["2020-07-03", 0.738], ["2020-07-03", 0.734], ["2020-07-04", 0.734], ["2020-07-04", 0.733], ["2020-07-07", 0.733], ["2020-07-15", 0.733], ["2020-07-16", 0.733], ["2020-07-19", 0.731], ["2020-07-19", 0.73], ["2020-07-28", 0.73], ["2020-07-28", 0.73], ["2020-07-31", 0.732], ["2020-08-01", 0.732], ["2020-08-14", 0.732], ["2020-08-15", 0.73], ["2020-08-29", 0.731], ["2020-08-29", 0.734], ["2020-08-31", 0.732], ["2020-08-31", 0.733], ["2020-09-02", 0.734], ["2020-09-02", 0.734], ["2020-09-04", 0.734], ["2020-09-05", 0.737], ["2020-09-08", 0.728], ["2020-09-13", 0.727], ["2020-09-14", 0.727], ["2020-09-14", 0.727], ["2020-09-15", 0.727], ["2020-09-15", 0.726], ["2020-09-15", 0.724], ["2020-09-16", 0.726], ["2020-09-21", 0.726], ["2020-09-21", 0.724], ["2020-09-22", 0.724], ["2020-09-22", 0.723], ["2020-09-23", 0.724], ["2020-09-23", 0.723], ["2020-09-25", 0.723], ["2020-09-26", 0.723], ["2020-10-03", 0.722], ["2020-10-03", 0.721], ["2020-10-08", 0.721], ["2020-10-10", 0.722], ["2020-10-10", 0.722], ["2020-10-10", 0.723], ["2020-10-11", 0.723], ["2020-10-13", 0.723], ["2020-10-13", 0.724], ["2020-10-15", 0.724], ["2020-10-15", 0.726], ["2020-10-16", 0.726], ["2020-10-16", 0.727], ["2020-10-17", 0.727], ["2020-10-18", 0.727], ["2020-10-20", 0.724], ["2020-10-22", 0.724], ["2020-10-25", 0.726], ["2020-10-25", 0.726], ["2020-10-25", 0.726], ["2020-10-29", 0.725], ["2020-10-29", 0.725], ["2020-10-30", 0.727], ["2020-10-30", 0.727], ["2020-10-31", 0.727], ["2020-10-31", 0.73], ["2020-10-31", 0.731]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4561/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | JK Rowling is currently releasing her new book, “The Ickabog”, in daily installments on her website. She plans to release it as a physical book in November. The Harry Potter books, also by Rowling, are one of the best-selling fiction series of all time. Harry Potter and The Cursed Child, the most recent installment, sold more than 2m copies in its first two days of publication, and topped bestseller lists of both Amazon and Barnes & Noble. As of the time of this question’s writing, more than half of Amazon’s top 10 most read books by week are from the Harry Potter series.
This question asks: Will “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?
Positive resolution occurs if, at any point in the week following The Ickabog’s official launch in the UK, it is ranked first on amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list for books. If the physical release of The Ickabog is cancelled, or delayed past the end of 2020, resolution will be ambiguous.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-11-01 | Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question asks: Will the UK’s “Christmas number 1” in the year 2020 be performed by an artist who has previously won a reality television show?
Positive resolution occurs if the artist (who could be a group or solo artist) who releases 2020’s Christmas number 1, as determined by officialcharts.com, has previously been announced as the winner of a reality television show. If an otherwise qualifying artist is listed as “featuring” another performer, resolution will be positive.
If an otherwise qualifying artist is one of several performers given equal credit, for example, if the “artist” space reads “Artist A & Artist B”, negative resolution will occur, unless all such artists are reality TV winners. If an otherwise qualifying artist is credited as “featuring” on the track of a performer who does not qualify, resolution will be negative.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-12-18 | Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-25 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.15], ["2020-06-05", 0.42], ["2020-06-05", 0.42], ["2020-06-05", 0.443], ["2020-06-05", 0.418], ["2020-06-06", 0.435], ["2020-06-06", 0.455], ["2020-06-07", 0.482], ["2020-06-07", 0.484], ["2020-06-07", 0.447], ["2020-06-07", 0.414], ["2020-06-08", 0.42], ["2020-06-08", 0.408], ["2020-06-08", 0.404], ["2020-06-08", 0.404], ["2020-06-09", 0.408], ["2020-06-11", 0.411], ["2020-06-11", 0.41], ["2020-06-11", 0.411], ["2020-06-11", 0.411], ["2020-06-12", 0.412], ["2020-06-12", 0.415], ["2020-06-17", 0.413], ["2020-06-17", 0.409], ["2020-06-21", 0.408], ["2020-07-15", 0.408], ["2020-07-16", 0.406], ["2020-07-25", 0.405], ["2020-07-25", 0.407], ["2020-07-28", 0.407], ["2020-07-31", 0.403], ["2020-07-31", 0.403], ["2020-08-01", 0.403], ["2020-08-04", 0.404], ["2020-08-15", 0.4], ["2020-08-17", 0.4], ["2020-08-21", 0.4], ["2020-08-29", 0.398], ["2020-09-04", 0.398], ["2020-09-24", 0.399], ["2020-09-25", 0.403], ["2020-09-25", 0.403], ["2020-09-26", 0.407], ["2020-10-05", 0.407], ["2020-10-11", 0.41], ["2020-10-16", 0.409], ["2020-10-22", 0.408], ["2020-10-22", 0.408], ["2020-11-01", 0.408], ["2020-11-03", 0.408], ["2020-11-03", 0.41], ["2020-11-04", 0.41], ["2020-11-06", 0.41], ["2020-11-07", 0.41], ["2020-11-10", 0.41], ["2020-11-16", 0.409], ["2020-11-16", 0.408], ["2020-11-18", 0.408], ["2020-11-20", 0.408], ["2020-11-21", 0.413], ["2020-11-21", 0.413], ["2020-11-21", 0.413], ["2020-11-22", 0.413], ["2020-11-22", 0.408], ["2020-11-23", 0.408], ["2020-11-30", 0.408], ["2020-11-30", 0.409], ["2020-12-01", 0.409], ["2020-12-01", 0.406], ["2020-12-01", 0.4], ["2020-12-01", 0.397], ["2020-12-02", 0.397], ["2020-12-02", 0.396], ["2020-12-02", 0.395], ["2020-12-07", 0.395], ["2020-12-10", 0.395], ["2020-12-11", 0.391], ["2020-12-11", 0.391], ["2020-12-12", 0.393], ["2020-12-12", 0.393], ["2020-12-12", 0.39], ["2020-12-13", 0.39], ["2020-12-13", 0.387], ["2020-12-13", 0.387], ["2020-12-14", 0.386], ["2020-12-14", 0.379], ["2020-12-14", 0.379], ["2020-12-14", 0.378], ["2020-12-15", 0.377], ["2020-12-15", 0.381], ["2020-12-15", 0.391], ["2020-12-15", 0.387], ["2020-12-16", 0.387], ["2020-12-16", 0.398], ["2020-12-16", 0.398], ["2020-12-16", 0.421], ["2020-12-17", 0.424], ["2020-12-17", 0.439], ["2020-12-17", 0.439], ["2020-12-17", 0.443], ["2020-12-17", 0.445]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4563/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | In the United Kingdom, the singles which are top of the UK singles chart in the week in which Christmas day falls are known as “Christmas number ones”. Reality television winners, particularly of the show “The X-Factor”, have frequently claimed the number one spot. From the years 2005-2008 inclusive, every artist with a Christmas no. 1 single had won the X-Factor. This prompted an ultimately successful campaign to buy enough copies of Rage Against the Machine’s “Killing in the Name” to get it to number 1 instead in 2009. More recently, X-Factor winners, as well as professional musicians, have had competition from other not-entirely serious entrants. In both 2018 and 2019, the Christmas no.1 spot went to a parody song about sausage rolls produced by british youtuber “Ladbaby”.
This question asks: Will the UK’s “Christmas number 1” in the year 2020 be an obvious joke/parody entry?
Resolution will be according to a panel of three metaculus admins who have not predicted on the question, who will consider the question “would a reasonable person consider this year’s Christmas number 1 to be a joke entry?”.
Positive resolution occurs if all three admins feel that the answer to this question is yes.
If any admin answers no, as the joke/parody is clearly not "obvious", negative resolution occurs.
As an illustrative set of examples, had this question been written in previous years, it would have resolved positively in 2009, 2018, and 2019. Had it succeeded, the Cage Against the Machine campaign in 2010 to get John Cage’s 4’33 to Christmas No.1 would also have triggered positive resolution.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-12-18 | Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke? | metaculus | 1 |
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The question asks: Will, at any point before Jan 1 2021, a user on the TikTok platform have over 100,000,000 followers?
Resolution is by the TikTok platform itself, although a regularly updated list of the most-followed accounts on the platform is kept on wikipedia.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-08-31 | Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.48], ["2020-06-05", 0.64], ["2020-06-05", 0.681], ["2020-06-05", 0.681], ["2020-06-05", 0.685], ["2020-06-05", 0.667], ["2020-06-05", 0.662], ["2020-06-06", 0.674], ["2020-06-06", 0.679], ["2020-06-06", 0.679], ["2020-06-06", 0.693], ["2020-06-06", 0.696], ["2020-06-07", 0.696], ["2020-06-07", 0.703], ["2020-06-07", 0.696], ["2020-06-07", 0.694], ["2020-06-07", 0.699], ["2020-06-07", 0.703], ["2020-06-08", 0.702], ["2020-06-08", 0.712], ["2020-06-08", 0.714], ["2020-06-08", 0.714], ["2020-06-08", 0.716], ["2020-06-09", 0.714], ["2020-06-09", 0.715], ["2020-06-09", 0.713], ["2020-06-09", 0.71], ["2020-06-09", 0.716], ["2020-06-10", 0.717], ["2020-06-10", 0.716], ["2020-06-10", 0.718], ["2020-06-10", 0.718], ["2020-06-11", 0.721], ["2020-06-11", 0.721], ["2020-06-11", 0.724], ["2020-06-12", 0.723], ["2020-06-13", 0.723], ["2020-06-13", 0.726], ["2020-06-14", 0.726], ["2020-06-14", 0.723], ["2020-06-17", 0.722], ["2020-06-17", 0.722], ["2020-06-17", 0.722], ["2020-06-17", 0.719], ["2020-06-18", 0.721], ["2020-06-18", 0.721], ["2020-06-18", 0.721], ["2020-06-18", 0.722], ["2020-06-18", 0.724], ["2020-06-19", 0.722], ["2020-06-22", 0.723], ["2020-06-23", 0.723], ["2020-06-26", 0.723], ["2020-06-27", 0.721], ["2020-07-01", 0.723], ["2020-07-01", 0.725], ["2020-07-01", 0.725], ["2020-07-02", 0.728], ["2020-07-02", 0.728], ["2020-07-02", 0.73], ["2020-07-02", 0.73], ["2020-07-03", 0.731], ["2020-07-03", 0.731], ["2020-07-03", 0.731], ["2020-07-04", 0.731], ["2020-07-04", 0.731], ["2020-07-12", 0.731], ["2020-07-24", 0.732], ["2020-07-24", 0.732], ["2020-07-24", 0.734], ["2020-07-24", 0.737], ["2020-07-25", 0.733], ["2020-07-25", 0.732], ["2020-07-25", 0.731], ["2020-07-25", 0.731], ["2020-07-26", 0.731], ["2020-07-31", 0.73], ["2020-08-01", 0.731], ["2020-08-11", 0.731], ["2020-08-17", 0.732], ["2020-08-17", 0.732], ["2020-08-19", 0.732], ["2020-08-21", 0.731], ["2020-08-22", 0.731], ["2020-08-23", 0.731], ["2020-08-23", 0.731], ["2020-08-25", 0.731], ["2020-08-26", 0.732], ["2020-08-26", 0.73], ["2020-08-28", 0.73], ["2020-08-28", 0.73], ["2020-08-29", 0.729], ["2020-08-29", 0.729], ["2020-08-30", 0.729], ["2020-08-30", 0.73], ["2020-08-30", 0.729], ["2020-08-30", 0.729], ["2020-08-31", 0.728], ["2020-08-31", 0.729], ["2020-08-31", 0.729], ["2020-08-31", 0.728]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4565/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Bechdel test, made famous by the cartoonist Alison Bechdel in her comic strip “Dykes to Watch Out For”, but credited by her to her friend Liz Wallace, is a three-part test of women’s representation in fiction. To “pass” the test, a film must:
Contain two named female characters.
Who have a conversation with each other.
Which is not about a man.
This question asks: Of the ten highest grossing films of 2020, will more than half satisfy all three of the criteria above?
The ten highest grossing films will be determined by credible media reports, while whether the films pass the bechdel test will be determined by bechdeltest.com.
As passing the test can in some cases be ambiguous, if there is sufficient disagreement in the comments on bechdeltest.com that the resolution might change, a panel of at least two metaculus admins, who have not predicted on the question, will be asked to judge and decide on a resolution. If no metaculus admins are able to judge, or if they do not agree, resolution will be ambiguous. 'Sufficient disagreement' is defined as follows:
Let the number of Top-10 films with disagreement about resolution in the comments be , and the number of Top-10 films passing the test according to the bechdeltest.com be . Disagreement is sufficient if
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-08-31 | Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-30 | 2020-06-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-15", 0.01], ["2020-06-15", 0.33], ["2020-06-15", 0.33], ["2020-06-16", 0.292], ["2020-06-16", 0.215], ["2020-06-17", 0.253], ["2020-06-17", 0.26], ["2020-06-17", 0.277], ["2020-06-18", 0.277], ["2020-06-18", 0.263], ["2020-06-18", 0.264], ["2020-06-18", 0.264], ["2020-06-18", 0.293], ["2020-06-29", 0.297], ["2020-07-07", 0.297], ["2020-07-07", 0.289], ["2020-07-07", 0.281], ["2020-07-08", 0.281], ["2020-07-08", 0.272], ["2020-07-08", 0.272], ["2020-07-10", 0.272], ["2020-07-10", 0.264], ["2020-07-14", 0.263], ["2020-07-15", 0.271], ["2020-07-29", 0.271], ["2020-08-01", 0.271], ["2020-08-01", 0.271], ["2020-08-02", 0.273], ["2020-08-03", 0.273], ["2020-08-05", 0.271], ["2020-08-05", 0.26], ["2020-08-07", 0.259], ["2020-08-08", 0.259], ["2020-08-08", 0.257], ["2020-08-09", 0.257], ["2020-08-09", 0.247], ["2020-08-09", 0.247], ["2020-08-09", 0.249], ["2020-08-09", 0.253], ["2020-08-09", 0.253], ["2020-08-11", 0.252], ["2020-08-11", 0.265], ["2020-08-12", 0.265], ["2020-08-12", 0.266], ["2020-08-12", 0.266], ["2020-08-13", 0.264], ["2020-08-13", 0.261], ["2020-08-14", 0.26], ["2020-08-14", 0.26], ["2020-08-14", 0.248], ["2020-08-14", 0.248], ["2020-08-14", 0.239], ["2020-08-14", 0.233]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4607/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | California AB 3155 is a bill authored by Robert Rivas and Sharon Quirk-Silva to extend the streamlined approval process of SB 35 to housing developments of 10 units or fewer (provided it is not part of a development project of more than 10 units and satisfies local affordable housing regulations).
On May 21st, AB 3155 passed the Assembly Housing and Community Development Committee. To be chaptered, it still needs to clear the Assembly and Senate and be approved by the governor.
It is backed by co-sponsors Habitat for Humanity California and The Two Hundred.
Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session? | true | 2020-08-14 | Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session? | metaculus | 0 |
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If President Trump loses the 2020 Presidential Election, will he publicly announce between 2020-11-03 and 2021-01-20 (inclusive) that he concedes?
This question resolves positively if, at any time between 2020-11-03 (Election Day) and 2021-01-20 (Inauguration Day), President Trump concedes that he has lost the 2020 US Presidential Election. He may do this in any venue so long as it is public (e.g. a Tweet will suffice). He may do so using any phrasing (so long as it is sufficiently clear that he has accepted that he will not legally be President on 2021-01-21). This question resolves negatively on 2021-01-21 if he has not yet done so. This question resolves ambiguously if President Trump is re-elected or he dies before this question is otherwise resolved.
ETA 2020-06-16: Any statement of the form "[Anyone other than President Donald J. Trump] won [the 2020 US presidential election] [...almost any other phrase]" is a concession for the purpose of this question | true | 2020-11-03 | If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede? | metaculus | 1 |
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In 2016, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, besting the previous mark which was set in 2015.
There is unambiguous evidence that climate change, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (as well as other greenhouse gases), is responsible for the relentless upward trend. Nonetheless, stochastic variations do lend a short-term veneer of unpredictability to near-term measurements.
A relatively recently closed Metaculus question that asked whether 2019 will break the global heat record was quite popular -- 564 predictions were registered, with the community of predictors ascribing a median 22% chance of going over the top. Given the interest, it seems reasonable to roll the question out for the coming year:
Will 2020 again set a new record? Or will it fall off the recent record-setting pace?
This will resolve in the positive if the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2020 is published above that of 2016, the current record holder.
Similar Metaculus questions were asked for 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. | true | 2020-11-30 | Will 2020 be the warmest year on record? | metaculus | 1 |
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On May 5th of this year, tensions flared again when Chinese and Indian soldiers clashed along the western border. A video was shared on social media showing soldiers engaging in fistfights and stone-pelting. Indian media claims that 72 Indian soldiers were injured in the incident.
On May 10th, near the disputed eastern border, Chinese soldiers crossed over and shouted at Indian forces, telling them the area didn’t belong to them. This escalated to violence and 11 soldiers were injured.
On May 24th, 1000 Chinese forces crossed 2-3km into territory that India claims is theirs. India has also sent troops to the area, and it appears the standoff is ongoing with both sides continuing to fortify their positions.
This question asks if the situation will continue to escalate and eventually result in a death, and resolves positively if there is a credible media report that all of the following criteria are met:
A person is killed as a result of a conflict between Indian and Chinese military forces within 100 miles of the China-India border. If it’s not clear if the death was a result of a military conflict, it will be judged by the metaculus admins.
In areas where the border between China and India is disputed, two lines will be used. In the west, China’s 1962 claim line will be used. In the east, the McMahon line will be used. These lines are drawn in Google Maps, and Google Maps will be used for measurements. The red lines on these images disambiguate the border lines in areas where it is disputed.
The death must occur on or before 2020-12-31 UTC. | true | 2020-12-02 | Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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In 2020, will we see a similar situation where law enforcement use live ammunition to intentionally shoot unarmed protesters?
For the purposes of this question:
"Unarmed" is defined as "not carrying a weapon that requires a license in the US". Notably, protesters who throw rocks, water bottles, or other debris at law enforcement, or who start fires, are considered "unarmed". Protesters who use vehicles which require a license to operate as weapons will be considered "armed" (e.g. if a protester intentionally drives their car into a crowd). If protesters use weapons which do not fit into the above described categories, they are considered "armed" only if moderators consider using live ammunition to be a proportionate response. (E.g. if a protester attacked law enforcement with a machete, live ammunition may be a proportionate response, but not if they attack with pepper spray.)
If law enforcement is firing upon armed protesters, and unarmed protesters are caught in the crossfire, that would not satisfy this question.
Law enforcement must use live ammunition for the purpose of this question. If a protester is killed using "less than lethal" ammunition (e.g. rubber bullets), that would not satisfy.
Law enforcement must intentionally fire at protesters. Accidental discharge or a "warning shot" which does not injure anyone do not satisfy this question.
If facts are disputed, the standard of evidence shall be one which would consider the Kent and Jackson State killings to satisfy this question. (E.g. if there are credible investigations which conclude that the protesters were unarmed, then that event would satisfy this question, even if other reports claim that protesters were armed, and the standard of evidence is not strong enough to press legal charges). Moderators will determine whether an investigation is "credible".
A protestor is a person who is participating in an organized public demonstration of disapproval. If someone is killed as collateral damage (e.g. they happen to be near other protesters when shot, even though they were not protesting themselves), that will satisfy this question. If someone is credibly found to have been pursued by law enforcement for reasons unrelated to the public expression of disapproval, that will not satisfy this question, even if they are near a protest. If someone is demonstrating disapproval through illegal actions (e.g. looting) that will satisfy this question, provided they are not armed or any of the other above clauses apply. | true | 2020-08-01 | Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,230.78 in 2019.
Will the S&P 500 closer higher or lower in 2020?
Resolves positively in the event that value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 3,230.78 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020. | true | 2020-12-31 | Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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This question asks: Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?
This question resolves positively if the US GOP has (a) at least 218 Representatives, (b) at least 50 Senators, and (c) the US Presidency as of 21 January 2021. Candidates who caucus with the GOP will count toward the GOP total regardless of whether they ran as Republicans in the election.
This question has a companion question.
Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?
This question and its companion cannot both be true. However they could both be false if there continues to be a divided government in the US or the black swan event that a new party arises that wins the presidency or a house of congress.
A question with direct impact on this one is: Will Trump be reelected president in 2020?
These real money prediction market claims are also relevant:
Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?
Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?
Which party will control the House after 2020 election? | true | 2020-09-30 | Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2020-06-17 | ["https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.11330"] | binary | [["2020-06-20", 0.3], ["2020-06-25", 0.342], ["2020-07-02", 0.342], ["2020-07-02", 0.341], ["2020-07-08", 0.326], ["2020-07-17", 0.325], ["2020-07-17", 0.322], ["2020-08-09", 0.322], ["2020-08-26", 0.322], ["2020-10-10", 0.322], ["2020-10-24", 0.322], ["2020-11-17", 0.314], ["2020-12-15", 0.314], ["2020-12-22", 0.315], ["2020-12-24", 0.315], ["2021-01-03", 0.31], ["2021-01-04", 0.299], ["2021-01-15", 0.315], ["2021-01-18", 0.31], ["2021-01-24", 0.31], ["2021-02-08", 0.299], ["2021-02-12", 0.302], ["2021-03-10", 0.295], ["2021-03-10", 0.297], ["2021-04-05", 0.297], ["2021-04-09", 0.297], ["2021-04-12", 0.297], ["2021-04-20", 0.297], ["2021-04-21", 0.296], ["2021-05-06", 0.291], ["2021-05-07", 0.291], ["2021-05-30", 0.29], ["2021-07-08", 0.29], ["2021-07-15", 0.29], ["2021-07-20", 0.29], ["2021-07-20", 0.29], ["2021-10-12", 0.29], ["2021-10-13", 0.29], ["2021-10-29", 0.29], ["2021-11-22", 0.286], ["2021-11-26", 0.289], ["2021-12-23", 0.292], ["2021-12-26", 0.287], ["2021-12-28", 0.279], ["2022-01-02", 0.277], ["2022-01-07", 0.271], ["2022-02-17", 0.266], ["2022-02-21", 0.254], ["2022-02-24", 0.254], ["2022-02-28", 0.238], ["2022-03-06", 0.234], ["2022-03-16", 0.234], ["2022-03-20", 0.228], ["2022-03-26", 0.228], ["2022-04-03", 0.227], ["2022-04-06", 0.212], ["2022-04-14", 0.212], ["2022-04-18", 0.212], ["2022-04-21", 0.212], ["2022-04-26", 0.199], ["2022-04-27", 0.199], ["2022-05-11", 0.199], ["2022-05-11", 0.199], ["2022-05-26", 0.199], ["2022-05-30", 0.198], ["2022-05-31", 0.198], ["2022-06-11", 0.198], ["2022-06-15", 0.21], ["2022-06-21", 0.211], ["2022-06-22", 0.211], ["2022-07-06", 0.21], ["2022-07-07", 0.21], ["2022-07-15", 0.209], ["2022-07-16", 0.208], ["2022-07-20", 0.205], ["2022-07-24", 0.202], ["2022-07-26", 0.202], ["2022-07-29", 0.197], ["2022-08-03", 0.166], ["2022-08-07", 0.165], ["2022-09-01", 0.161], ["2022-09-06", 0.161], ["2022-09-14", 0.163], ["2022-09-14", 0.165], ["2022-09-27", 0.165], ["2022-10-07", 0.161], ["2022-10-16", 0.161], ["2022-10-17", 0.161], ["2022-10-30", 0.161], ["2022-10-31", 0.158], ["2022-11-05", 0.158], ["2022-11-08", 0.154], ["2022-11-10", 0.152], ["2022-11-24", 0.152], ["2022-11-28", 0.149], ["2022-12-11", 0.144], ["2022-12-14", 0.138], ["2022-12-21", 0.136], ["2022-12-24", 0.133], ["2022-12-27", 0.132], ["2022-12-31", 0.097]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4670/ | A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter] pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS] and axions. An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T] in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments]; this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds] will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal.
Recently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see preprint and popular article in Quanta. These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article,
As the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.
In their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.
There are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course "other." The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:
Luckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. | Science & Tech | This question will resolve as Yes if a paper or preprint is published before January 1, 2023 which includes results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming
or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-06-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-23", 0.1], ["2020-06-23", 0.217], ["2020-06-24", 0.165], ["2020-06-24", 0.225], ["2020-06-24", 0.225], ["2020-06-24", 0.196], ["2020-06-24", 0.196], ["2020-06-25", 0.192], ["2020-06-25", 0.192], ["2020-06-25", 0.213], ["2020-06-26", 0.215], ["2020-06-27", 0.202], ["2020-06-28", 0.202], ["2020-06-28", 0.216], ["2020-06-28", 0.212], ["2020-06-28", 0.212], ["2020-06-28", 0.203], ["2020-06-29", 0.196], ["2020-06-29", 0.196], ["2020-06-29", 0.191], ["2020-06-30", 0.197], ["2020-06-30", 0.197], ["2020-07-01", 0.202], ["2020-07-05", 0.202], ["2020-07-06", 0.198], ["2020-07-06", 0.196], ["2020-07-24", 0.192], ["2020-07-25", 0.192], ["2020-07-28", 0.186], ["2020-08-01", 0.186], ["2020-08-03", 0.189], ["2020-08-04", 0.185], ["2020-08-05", 0.185], ["2020-08-08", 0.184], ["2020-08-08", 0.177], ["2020-08-12", 0.175], ["2020-08-12", 0.175], ["2020-08-17", 0.175], ["2020-08-18", 0.173], ["2020-08-29", 0.167], ["2020-08-29", 0.167], ["2020-08-31", 0.166], ["2020-08-31", 0.166], ["2020-08-31", 0.164], ["2020-09-01", 0.159], ["2020-09-02", 0.159], ["2020-09-02", 0.154], ["2020-09-02", 0.148], ["2020-09-02", 0.149], ["2020-09-02", 0.149], ["2020-09-02", 0.143], ["2020-09-02", 0.143], ["2020-09-04", 0.139], ["2020-09-04", 0.138], ["2020-09-04", 0.135], ["2020-09-05", 0.132], ["2020-09-08", 0.129], ["2020-09-08", 0.13], ["2020-09-09", 0.129], ["2020-09-09", 0.129], ["2020-09-13", 0.127], ["2020-09-20", 0.123], ["2020-09-20", 0.123], ["2020-09-21", 0.12], ["2020-09-22", 0.12], ["2020-09-22", 0.111], ["2020-09-22", 0.111], ["2020-09-23", 0.11], ["2020-09-23", 0.108], ["2020-09-24", 0.108], ["2020-09-24", 0.106], ["2020-09-24", 0.106], ["2020-09-24", 0.103], ["2020-09-25", 0.101], ["2020-09-25", 0.1], ["2020-09-25", 0.101], ["2020-09-26", 0.099], ["2020-09-27", 0.099], ["2020-09-27", 0.096], ["2020-10-03", 0.094], ["2020-10-04", 0.095], ["2020-10-05", 0.095], ["2020-10-05", 0.094], ["2020-10-07", 0.094], ["2020-10-09", 0.092], ["2020-10-09", 0.092], ["2020-10-10", 0.092], ["2020-10-22", 0.092], ["2020-10-29", 0.092], ["2020-10-30", 0.091], ["2020-10-30", 0.094], ["2020-10-30", 0.095], ["2020-10-31", 0.095], ["2020-10-31", 0.094], ["2020-10-31", 0.088], ["2020-10-31", 0.087], ["2020-10-31", 0.09], ["2020-10-31", 0.088], ["2020-10-31", 0.085], ["2020-10-31", 0.085], ["2020-11-01", 0.084]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4682/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.
This year, tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.
This question asks:
Will the violence continue, and result in at least 500 Indian soldier and/or civilian deaths due to conflicts with the Chinese military along the border?
Indian deaths are the focus for forecasting because China has not been forthcoming with data on their casualties. The question will resolve positively if all of the following criteria are met:
500 or more Indians are killed as a result of conflicts between Indian and Chinese military forces within 100 miles of the China-India border. These deaths can be the result of more than one incident, and will be tabulated from credible media reports. A death is a result of a military conflict if it was caused by injuries sustained during a conflict between Chinese and Indian military forces. If Indians are captured and executed or otherwise die in captivity, those fatalities will be counted too. Victims can be civilians as well as soldiers. Ambiguous cases will be judged by Metaculus admins or moderators.
In areas where the border between China and India is disputed, two lines will be used. In the west, China’s 1962 claim line will be used. In the east, the McMahon line will be used. These lines are drawn in Google Maps, and Google Maps will be used for measurements. The red lines on these images disambiguate the border lines in areas where it is disputed.
The deaths must result from a conflict that occurs between 2020-05-14 and 2020-12-31 UTC, inclusive of both endpoints. Thus, deaths as a result of the June 15th conflict are counted. | true | 2020-11-01 | Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-06-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-23", 0.67], ["2020-06-24", 0.352], ["2020-06-24", 0.368], ["2020-06-25", 0.368], ["2020-06-25", 0.379], ["2020-06-26", 0.379], ["2020-06-27", 0.361], ["2020-06-27", 0.382], ["2020-06-28", 0.367], ["2020-06-29", 0.384], ["2020-06-29", 0.382], ["2020-06-30", 0.382], ["2020-06-30", 0.38], ["2020-07-04", 0.389], ["2020-07-04", 0.377], ["2020-07-05", 0.38], ["2020-07-05", 0.373], ["2020-07-06", 0.37], ["2020-07-06", 0.338], ["2020-07-07", 0.336], ["2020-07-07", 0.336], ["2020-07-09", 0.334], ["2020-07-10", 0.336], ["2020-07-12", 0.336], ["2020-07-19", 0.337], ["2020-07-19", 0.338], ["2020-07-21", 0.334], ["2020-07-31", 0.332], ["2020-08-05", 0.332], ["2020-08-08", 0.332], ["2020-08-08", 0.331], ["2020-08-11", 0.328], ["2020-08-11", 0.328], ["2020-08-20", 0.324], ["2020-08-21", 0.324], ["2020-09-02", 0.322], ["2020-09-02", 0.323], ["2020-09-03", 0.322], ["2020-09-04", 0.323], ["2020-09-05", 0.315], ["2020-09-07", 0.31], ["2020-09-07", 0.306], ["2020-09-08", 0.296], ["2020-09-08", 0.303], ["2020-09-09", 0.3], ["2020-09-09", 0.302], ["2020-09-10", 0.34], ["2020-09-10", 0.41], ["2020-09-11", 0.424], ["2020-09-11", 0.426], ["2020-09-12", 0.417], ["2020-09-13", 0.418], ["2020-09-13", 0.419], ["2020-09-14", 0.418], ["2020-09-14", 0.418], ["2020-09-16", 0.42], ["2020-09-17", 0.419], ["2020-09-17", 0.417], ["2020-09-18", 0.417], ["2020-09-19", 0.416], ["2020-09-19", 0.415], ["2020-09-20", 0.414], ["2020-09-21", 0.398], ["2020-09-21", 0.393], ["2020-09-22", 0.393], ["2020-09-22", 0.391], ["2020-09-24", 0.391], ["2020-09-24", 0.387], ["2020-09-25", 0.384], ["2020-09-25", 0.384], ["2020-09-26", 0.383], ["2020-09-27", 0.381], ["2020-09-27", 0.381], ["2020-09-28", 0.38], ["2020-10-02", 0.38], ["2020-10-04", 0.373], ["2020-10-04", 0.372], ["2020-10-06", 0.371], ["2020-10-07", 0.371], ["2020-10-08", 0.371], ["2020-10-09", 0.368], ["2020-10-10", 0.368], ["2020-10-10", 0.366], ["2020-10-15", 0.365], ["2020-10-16", 0.365], ["2020-10-16", 0.356], ["2020-10-17", 0.356], ["2020-10-20", 0.355], ["2020-10-20", 0.355], ["2020-10-22", 0.351], ["2020-10-22", 0.351], ["2020-10-23", 0.345], ["2020-10-24", 0.345], ["2020-10-25", 0.344], ["2020-10-26", 0.344], ["2020-10-27", 0.342], ["2020-10-28", 0.342], ["2020-10-29", 0.335], ["2020-10-30", 0.321], ["2020-10-31", 0.277], ["2020-10-31", 0.262]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4683/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.
This year, tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.
One unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that:
With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.
This question asks if the violence will escalate beyond clubs and fists to guns or explosives. It resolves positively if all of the following criteria are met:
There is a conflict between Indian and Chinese military forces where guns or explosives are used within 100 miles of the border. A gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.
There is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.
In areas where the border between China and India is disputed, two lines will be used. In the west, China’s 1962 claim line will be used. In the east, the McMahon line will be used. These lines are drawn in Google Maps, and Google Maps will be used for measurements. The red lines on these images disambiguate the border lines in areas where it is disputed.
The conflict must occur on or before 2020-12-31 UTC. | true | 2020-10-31 | Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-09 | 2020-06-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-29", 0.33], ["2020-06-30", 0.33], ["2020-06-30", 0.403], ["2020-06-30", 0.403], ["2020-06-30", 0.35], ["2020-06-30", 0.358], ["2020-06-30", 0.394], ["2020-06-30", 0.386], ["2020-06-30", 0.41], ["2020-06-30", 0.433], ["2020-06-30", 0.415], ["2020-06-30", 0.415], ["2020-07-01", 0.405], ["2020-07-01", 0.4], ["2020-07-01", 0.394], ["2020-07-01", 0.394], ["2020-07-01", 0.381], ["2020-07-01", 0.427], ["2020-07-01", 0.421], ["2020-07-01", 0.421], ["2020-07-01", 0.413], ["2020-07-02", 0.413], ["2020-07-02", 0.412], ["2020-07-02", 0.399], ["2020-07-02", 0.399], ["2020-07-02", 0.393], ["2020-07-02", 0.399], ["2020-07-02", 0.396], ["2020-07-02", 0.388], ["2020-07-02", 0.388], ["2020-07-02", 0.388], ["2020-07-02", 0.388], ["2020-07-02", 0.388], ["2020-07-02", 0.384], ["2020-07-02", 0.385], ["2020-07-02", 0.381], ["2020-07-02", 0.381], ["2020-07-02", 0.381], ["2020-07-02", 0.381], ["2020-07-02", 0.377], ["2020-07-02", 0.38], ["2020-07-02", 0.369], ["2020-07-02", 0.374], ["2020-07-02", 0.374], ["2020-07-02", 0.37], ["2020-07-03", 0.37], ["2020-07-03", 0.363], ["2020-07-03", 0.346], ["2020-07-03", 0.353], ["2020-07-03", 0.353], ["2020-07-03", 0.353], ["2020-07-03", 0.354], ["2020-07-03", 0.354], ["2020-07-03", 0.348], ["2020-07-03", 0.348], ["2020-07-03", 0.359], ["2020-07-03", 0.355], ["2020-07-03", 0.355], ["2020-07-03", 0.355], ["2020-07-04", 0.355]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4691/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Approximately 6,200 persons attended Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally yesterday, (June 20). Pictures in the news shows people crowded together, most not wearing masks. Health officials have cautioned against attending large meetings such as this out of concerns for spreading Coronavirus. Many people believe it is foolish.
So how are we to define "a spike"? How many of those 6,200 attendees have to get Coronavirus to declare it a "spike"? Lets consider some simplistic statistics, Oklahoma has a population of about 3,957,000. COVID cases are spiking in Oklahoma, reporting 1,392 new cases from June 17-20. If we apply those numbers to the rally, we might expect 1,392/3,957,000 * 6,200 = 2.18 new COVID cases among the 6,200 attendees of the rally.
Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?
To be resolved positively reports by a health authority, NY Times, Washington Post, ABC, NBC, PBS, CBS or Fox must report that more than 19 persons likely became infected with COVID by attending the Tulsa rally on June 20.
This reporting must take place before August 1st, 12PM EST. | true | 2020-07-04 | [Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases? | metaculus | 0 |
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Arizona is experiencing a spike in Coronavirus infections: some 12,897 new cases over the last 5 days (June 17-22). Arizona has a population of about 7,297,000. In a crowd of 3,000 we might then expect about 5 new infections. If more than 20 attendees come down with COVID-19 within 2-14 days, we can comfortably conclude that the rally was a foci of contagion.
This question will resolve positively if major news outlets or an Arizona Health Authority determines that more than 19 persons became infected by attending the rally at the Dream City Church.
If no such reporting comes out before August 15th, the question resolves negatively. | true | 2020-07-10 | Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-07-11 | 2020-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-29", 0.25], ["2020-06-30", 0.29], ["2020-06-30", 0.323], ["2020-06-30", 0.353], ["2020-06-30", 0.342], ["2020-07-01", 0.342], ["2020-07-01", 0.335], ["2020-07-01", 0.335], ["2020-07-01", 0.31], ["2020-07-01", 0.297], ["2020-07-01", 0.297], ["2020-07-01", 0.297], ["2020-07-01", 0.294], ["2020-07-02", 0.337], ["2020-07-02", 0.337], ["2020-07-02", 0.329], ["2020-07-02", 0.331], ["2020-07-03", 0.331], ["2020-07-03", 0.335], ["2020-07-03", 0.331], ["2020-07-03", 0.331], ["2020-07-04", 0.331], ["2020-07-05", 0.321], ["2020-07-05", 0.311], ["2020-07-05", 0.304], ["2020-07-06", 0.304], ["2020-07-06", 0.342], ["2020-07-06", 0.342], ["2020-07-06", 0.337], ["2020-07-06", 0.337], ["2020-07-07", 0.328], ["2020-07-07", 0.324], ["2020-07-07", 0.32], ["2020-07-07", 0.32], ["2020-07-07", 0.317], ["2020-07-07", 0.315], ["2020-07-07", 0.31], ["2020-07-07", 0.308], ["2020-07-07", 0.307], ["2020-07-07", 0.307], ["2020-07-08", 0.29], ["2020-07-08", 0.286], ["2020-07-08", 0.291], ["2020-07-08", 0.289], ["2020-07-08", 0.289], ["2020-07-08", 0.289]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4723/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Singapore’s political system has been called many things, from “representative democracy” (which it technically is), to “flawed democracy” (by the Economist Intelligence Unit), or “guided democracy”, or even a “one-party state”. Adam Garfinkle writes,
Singapore is a “managed” democracy, and let’s be frank about what that means: The opposition is not going to win political power short of pigs flying and the moon audibly whistling “Majulah Singapura.” The system is subtly but effectively rigged—I mean protected—against that.
One of the ways in which the system is “subtly rigged” is a uniquely Singaporean construct—the “group representation constituency (GRC)”. Introduced in 1988 with the official justification of “enshrining minority representation in Parliament”, it was also criticised as “a ploy to handicap the diminutive Opposition further” as the opposition already found it difficult to attract talented candidates after decades of a single party dominating local politics. Regardless of reason, the opposition never did manage to win a GRC for the first 20+ years since inception; this was only changed when the Worker’s Party (WP) won Aljunied GRC in the 2011 general election. Till date, that (as well as the 2015 general election where WP successfully defended their seats in Aljunied GRC) has been the only time an opposition party has won in a GRC.
Question: in the upcoming general elections on 10 July 2020, will an opposition party (defined as any political party except the incumbent People’s Action Party) win one or more GRCs, not including Aljunied GRC? | true | 2020-07-08 | [short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?
Resolution is positive if before by January 31st 2021 11:59EST, a credible news article or Twitter reports that Molyneux's account has been suspended by Twitter citing violation of its policies, for at least a 30-day period, continuously. | true | 2020-11-30 | Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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However, TikTok has recently been linked to significant spying and other privacy concerns. This, and other growing concerns of Chinese influence, have made it identified by the US as a potential national security threat. India also recently banned TikTok.
This has made Arpit Gupta, an Assistant Professor of Finance at NYU Stern, predict that the US will also ban Tik Tok by the end of the year. He however hasn't yet put a probability on that statement. Will you?
This question will resolve positive if a credible media report indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American cannot do any of the following:
download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)
similarly for the iOS App Store
use the app if it was previously downloaded
This question will either close at the end of July or retroactively to three days prior to the announcement if the announcement is earlier than the end of July. | true | 2020-07-31 | Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year? | metaculus | 0 |
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We already have a Metaculus prediction about if/when such an article is published it will include his full name.
However, that question very much depends on this one, whether they will go ahead with any article in the first place. Since if they are only 1% likely to go ahead then it might be moot whether the name would be included.
It doesn't have to be the currently anticipated article by the currently anticipated NYT author in the currently anticipated topic. Any author's NYT-published article in any topic that mentions either him or his blog is eligible to resolve this question positively.
This question resolves positively if any time between 2020-07-01 00:01 UTC and 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC any article is published on nytimes.com that mentions either "Slate Star Codex", "SlateStarCodex", "slatestarcodex.com", or "Scott Alexander".
Otherwise it resolves negatively at 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC.
And it is clear they are referring to the author of SSC, not any other Scott Alexander. | true | 2021-03-01 | Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year? | metaculus | 1 |
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There are currently rumors that the casinos will be shut down again due to a rise in coronavirus cases. | Healthcare & Biology | The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source | true | 2021-04-01 | Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? | metaculus | 0 |
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Batygin and Brown's paper, has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.
Follow-up papers by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an explanation for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it can account for curious orbital commensurabilities among the most distant members of the Kuipier Belt, and it has been hypothesized that it can explain the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.
The planet, however, remains to be found.
If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the use of data from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published an update to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.
It thus seems timely to release this fifth update to our original, now long-closed, Planet Nine question. Specifically:
Will the detection (by direct optical observation) of a new Solar System planet occur by July 1, 2021?
For this question to resolve as "Yes", the new Solar System planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years. | true | 2021-01-02 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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With this sequencing method, strands of DNA are pushed through a pore in a membrane and the nucleotide-specific current flow is measured and translated to bases. The longest published read to date measured 2,272,580 bases in length, although the ONT website claims >4,000,000 bases (which likely is internal data as no source is given). As longer reads are preferred for e.g. spanning genomic repeat sequences and co-detecting mutations on a single DNA strand, protocols for "ultra-long" read generation are being refined and published.
Will we see at least one read with a length of >= 5.000.000 bases before January 1st, 2022?
The question resolves positively if the result has been published in a peer-reviewed journal. | true | 2021-09-30 | Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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Epstein was arrested on July 6, 2019, on federal charges for the sex trafficking of minors in Florida and New York. He died in his jail cell on August 10, 2019. The medical examiner ruled the death a suicide, although Epstein's lawyers have disputed the ruling, and there has been huge public skepticism about the true cause of his death, such that the phrase "Jeffrey Epstein did not kill himself" has become a meme.
On July 2 2020, Maxwell was arrested by the FBI in New Hampshire, and is facing multiple felony charges.
This question asks: Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?
This question resolves positively if it is known that Ghislaine Maxwell is still alive on January 1 2021. This question resolves negatively if it is known that Ghislaine Maxwell has died prior to January 1 2021. This question resolves ambiguously if Maxwell's status on January 1 2021 is unknown or disputed (e.g. she is missing, with no confirmation of whether she is dead or alive). | true | 2020-12-01 | Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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The current 14 day moving average of daily cases in New York State (as of July 5th, 2020) is ~670. However, many other states in the US have seen a recent resurgence of the COVID-19 that started around June. It remains to be seen whether this nationwide trend of increasing case counts will also reflect itself in New York State.
This question asks, Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?
This question will resolve positively if the 14 day rolling average of daily new cases as reported by the NYSDOH COVID-19 tracker exceeds 3000 on any day after Jul 5th, 2020, but before Jan 1st, 2021. It will resolve negatively otherwise. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-18 | 2020-07-06 | ["https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/doc\u2026", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4761/if-h\u2026"] | binary | [["2020-07-10", 0.335], ["2020-07-11", 0.14], ["2020-07-11", 0.152], ["2020-07-11", 0.246], ["2020-07-12", 0.246], ["2020-07-12", 0.242], ["2020-07-13", 0.243], ["2020-07-13", 0.256], ["2020-07-14", 0.245], ["2020-07-14", 0.233], ["2020-07-15", 0.179], ["2020-07-15", 0.135], ["2020-07-16", 0.13], ["2020-07-16", 0.134], ["2020-07-17", 0.134], ["2020-07-18", 0.125], ["2020-07-19", 0.12], ["2020-07-19", 0.116], ["2020-07-20", 0.116], ["2020-07-20", 0.119], ["2020-07-21", 0.113], ["2020-07-23", 0.111], ["2020-07-24", 0.111], ["2020-07-27", 0.108], ["2020-07-29", 0.108], ["2020-07-30", 0.106], ["2020-07-30", 0.102], ["2020-08-01", 0.101], ["2020-08-04", 0.101], ["2020-08-05", 0.099], ["2020-08-05", 0.098], ["2020-08-07", 0.098], ["2020-08-08", 0.096], ["2020-08-08", 0.096], ["2020-08-09", 0.096], ["2020-08-10", 0.099], ["2020-08-11", 0.098], ["2020-08-12", 0.096], ["2020-08-16", 0.096], ["2020-08-16", 0.1], ["2020-08-18", 0.1], ["2020-08-18", 0.106], ["2020-08-19", 0.106], ["2020-08-19", 0.108], ["2020-08-20", 0.108], ["2020-08-21", 0.127], ["2020-08-21", 0.124], ["2020-08-22", 0.116], ["2020-08-22", 0.114], ["2020-08-30", 0.113], ["2020-08-31", 0.119], ["2020-08-31", 0.125], ["2020-09-01", 0.122], ["2020-09-02", 0.122], ["2020-09-02", 0.123], ["2020-09-03", 0.125], ["2020-09-03", 0.125], ["2020-09-04", 0.127], ["2020-09-05", 0.127], ["2020-09-12", 0.127], ["2020-09-14", 0.126], ["2020-09-16", 0.126], ["2020-09-16", 0.133], ["2020-09-18", 0.133], ["2020-09-18", 0.131], ["2020-09-20", 0.131], ["2020-09-21", 0.131], ["2020-09-23", 0.131], ["2020-09-25", 0.131], ["2020-09-25", 0.13], ["2020-10-01", 0.13], ["2020-10-02", 0.128], ["2020-10-02", 0.131], ["2020-10-09", 0.131], ["2020-10-09", 0.131], ["2020-10-10", 0.133], ["2020-10-10", 0.133], ["2020-10-12", 0.134], ["2020-10-16", 0.131], ["2020-10-18", 0.13], ["2020-10-18", 0.125], ["2020-10-19", 0.121], ["2020-10-19", 0.12], ["2020-10-20", 0.119], ["2020-10-22", 0.119], ["2020-10-22", 0.118], ["2020-10-24", 0.118], ["2020-10-24", 0.117], ["2020-10-25", 0.117], ["2020-10-25", 0.116], ["2020-10-26", 0.117], ["2020-10-26", 0.118], ["2020-10-27", 0.119], ["2020-10-28", 0.119], ["2020-10-28", 0.12], ["2020-10-28", 0.122], ["2020-10-29", 0.121], ["2020-10-29", 0.123], ["2020-10-30", 0.133], ["2020-10-30", 0.136], ["2020-10-31", 0.136]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4769/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kanye Omari West, born June 8, 1977, is an American rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur and fashion designer. West reportedly has a net worth in excess of $1 billion.
In September 2015, West announced that he intended to run for President of the United States in 2020. However, after the election of Donald Trump in 2016, it appeared that West would sit the 2020 election out, due to his proclaimed support for incumbent Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election in 2020.
On July 4 2020, West announced on Twitter that he would indeed seek the United States presidency in November 2020.
We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States! #2020VISION
This question asks: Will there be any state in which Kanye West wins more votes than the difference between the first- and second-place finishers for that state?
There is no special resolution for the cases where West does not appear on the ballot in any state, does or does not actually campaign for votes, or even if he later formally endorses another candidate -- in these cases, we will still compare the number of total votes West receives against the difference between the first- and second-place finishes for each state.
Any votes cast for West as vice president do not count; only votes for West as president.
Votes for West will be counted regardless of whether he formally appears on the ballot or campaigns as a write-in candidate.
Vote totals will be pulled from the New York Times, CNN, or FiveThirtyEight -- in the event that there is a dispute, it will be decided when the FEC eventually releases its formal election results publication (ex: https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/doc… but for 2020).
Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4761/if-h… | true | 2020-10-31 | In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-24 | 2020-07-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-12", 0.495], ["2020-07-13", 0.508], ["2020-07-15", 0.494], ["2020-07-16", 0.492], ["2020-07-18", 0.5], ["2020-07-19", 0.5], ["2020-07-21", 0.496], ["2020-07-22", 0.505], ["2020-07-23", 0.509], ["2020-07-25", 0.518], ["2020-07-26", 0.529], ["2020-07-27", 0.527], ["2020-07-28", 0.522], ["2020-07-29", 0.527], ["2020-07-31", 0.53], ["2020-08-01", 0.53], ["2020-08-03", 0.535], ["2020-08-05", 0.514], ["2020-08-06", 0.506], ["2020-08-07", 0.506], ["2020-08-09", 0.487], ["2020-08-12", 0.485], ["2020-08-14", 0.485], ["2020-08-17", 0.484], ["2020-08-19", 0.488], ["2020-08-20", 0.478], ["2020-08-21", 0.475], ["2020-08-23", 0.464], ["2020-08-24", 0.466], ["2020-08-25", 0.466], ["2020-08-27", 0.466], ["2020-08-29", 0.462], ["2020-08-31", 0.462], ["2020-09-01", 0.465], ["2020-09-02", 0.466], ["2020-09-04", 0.464], ["2020-09-06", 0.463], ["2020-09-07", 0.468], ["2020-09-09", 0.475], ["2020-09-10", 0.482], ["2020-09-12", 0.489], ["2020-09-13", 0.492], ["2020-09-14", 0.494], ["2020-09-15", 0.494], ["2020-09-16", 0.493], ["2020-09-17", 0.493], ["2020-09-19", 0.494], ["2020-09-20", 0.492], ["2020-09-22", 0.496], ["2020-09-23", 0.495], ["2020-09-27", 0.495], ["2020-09-28", 0.496], ["2020-09-29", 0.497], ["2020-10-01", 0.497], ["2020-10-02", 0.491], ["2020-10-03", 0.491], ["2020-10-04", 0.49], ["2020-10-05", 0.49], ["2020-10-07", 0.485], ["2020-10-08", 0.485], ["2020-10-09", 0.475], ["2020-10-11", 0.476], ["2020-10-12", 0.477], ["2020-10-13", 0.471], ["2020-10-14", 0.464], ["2020-10-15", 0.458], ["2020-10-16", 0.468], ["2020-10-18", 0.474], ["2020-10-19", 0.478], ["2020-10-20", 0.48], ["2020-10-21", 0.475], ["2020-10-22", 0.457], ["2020-10-23", 0.448], ["2020-10-24", 0.446], ["2020-10-26", 0.447], ["2020-10-27", 0.447], ["2020-10-28", 0.446], ["2020-10-30", 0.446], ["2020-10-31", 0.446], ["2020-11-02", 0.44], ["2020-11-03", 0.43], ["2020-11-04", 0.429], ["2020-11-05", 0.423], ["2020-11-06", 0.422], ["2020-11-08", 0.422], ["2020-11-09", 0.42], ["2020-11-10", 0.418], ["2020-11-11", 0.419], ["2020-11-13", 0.419], ["2020-11-14", 0.418], ["2020-11-15", 0.42], ["2020-11-17", 0.42], ["2020-11-19", 0.423], ["2020-11-20", 0.424], ["2020-11-22", 0.423], ["2020-11-23", 0.412], ["2020-11-25", 0.406], ["2020-11-27", 0.405], ["2020-11-29", 0.405], ["2020-11-30", 0.407], ["2020-12-01", 0.409]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4771/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | After the UK formally left the EU on 31 January 2020, an 11-month transition period started, which is due to end on 31 December 2020.
With the end of June came the passing of the deadline to extend this transition period beyond the end of 2020, meaning that without a change in the law, the transition period will end on 31 December 2020, regardless of whether a trade deal is in place between the UK and the EU.
This question asks: Will the transition period end on 31 December 2020, with no trade deal in place between the UK and the EU?
This question resolves positively if the transition period ends on schedule on 31 December, with no deal in place. It resolves negatively if any deal between the UK and the EU is reached either before or on this date that prevents this (including an agreement to extend the deadline, or to abandon Brexit entirely). Otherwise, it resolves as ambiguous. | true | 2020-12-01 | Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-07-01 | 2020-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-13", 0.725], ["2020-08-14", 0.757], ["2020-08-15", 0.757], ["2020-08-17", 0.759], ["2020-08-18", 0.759], ["2020-08-21", 0.713], ["2020-08-23", 0.731], ["2020-08-29", 0.726], ["2020-08-31", 0.733], ["2020-09-01", 0.731], ["2020-09-02", 0.731], ["2020-09-04", 0.782], ["2020-09-09", 0.782], ["2020-09-10", 0.783], ["2020-09-29", 0.78], ["2020-10-01", 0.78], ["2020-10-02", 0.78], ["2020-10-07", 0.781], ["2020-10-09", 0.783], ["2020-10-10", 0.788], ["2020-10-12", 0.789], ["2020-10-16", 0.79], ["2020-10-22", 0.79], ["2020-11-09", 0.789], ["2020-11-10", 0.794], ["2020-11-14", 0.794], ["2020-11-16", 0.795], ["2020-11-18", 0.795], ["2020-11-20", 0.795], ["2020-11-25", 0.798], ["2020-11-27", 0.802], ["2020-12-03", 0.803], ["2020-12-04", 0.804], ["2020-12-06", 0.804], ["2020-12-07", 0.805], ["2020-12-11", 0.808], ["2020-12-11", 0.808], ["2020-12-14", 0.81], ["2020-12-22", 0.811], ["2020-12-22", 0.811], ["2020-12-26", 0.811], ["2020-12-28", 0.816], ["2021-01-02", 0.816], ["2021-01-03", 0.827], ["2021-01-04", 0.829], ["2021-01-10", 0.831], ["2021-01-12", 0.835], ["2021-01-13", 0.832], ["2021-01-20", 0.832], ["2021-01-27", 0.838], ["2021-02-01", 0.841], ["2021-02-02", 0.842], ["2021-02-03", 0.86], ["2021-02-04", 0.862], ["2021-02-10", 0.859], ["2021-02-12", 0.86], ["2021-02-14", 0.864], ["2021-02-15", 0.866], ["2021-02-20", 0.868], ["2021-02-23", 0.868], ["2021-02-25", 0.863], ["2021-02-26", 0.868], ["2021-03-02", 0.867], ["2021-03-05", 0.869], ["2021-03-06", 0.87], ["2021-03-07", 0.87], ["2021-03-09", 0.879], ["2021-03-12", 0.88], ["2021-03-13", 0.88], ["2021-03-15", 0.882], ["2021-03-18", 0.881], ["2021-03-19", 0.881], ["2021-03-22", 0.881], ["2021-03-24", 0.878], ["2021-03-25", 0.878], ["2021-04-03", 0.878], ["2021-04-04", 0.876], ["2021-04-05", 0.874], ["2021-04-07", 0.875], ["2021-04-10", 0.875], ["2021-04-11", 0.876], ["2021-04-14", 0.874], ["2021-04-18", 0.874], ["2021-04-22", 0.875], ["2021-04-27", 0.875], ["2021-04-30", 0.876], ["2021-04-30", 0.877], ["2021-05-02", 0.877], ["2021-05-04", 0.879], ["2021-05-09", 0.879], ["2021-05-10", 0.88], ["2021-05-12", 0.881], ["2021-05-14", 0.882], ["2021-05-14", 0.883], ["2021-05-19", 0.883], ["2021-05-23", 0.883], ["2021-05-25", 0.886], ["2021-05-26", 0.888], ["2021-05-28", 0.888], ["2021-05-30", 0.896], ["2021-05-31", 0.908]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4774/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.
Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent 'leadership spills'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and five separate Prime Ministers.
In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over a trip to Hawaii during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one poll indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks:
Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?
This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website 'pm.gov.au' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-19", 0.7], ["2020-07-20", 0.568], ["2020-07-20", 0.568], ["2020-07-21", 0.574], ["2020-07-21", 0.603], ["2020-07-24", 0.603], ["2020-07-27", 0.584], ["2020-07-27", 0.574], ["2020-07-30", 0.583], ["2020-07-31", 0.583], ["2020-08-01", 0.579], ["2020-08-01", 0.586], ["2020-08-03", 0.578], ["2020-08-03", 0.592], ["2020-08-06", 0.582], ["2020-08-10", 0.582], ["2020-08-11", 0.577], ["2020-08-20", 0.577], ["2020-08-24", 0.58], ["2020-08-29", 0.577], ["2020-09-03", 0.573], ["2020-09-04", 0.554], ["2020-09-05", 0.552], ["2020-09-17", 0.548], ["2020-09-19", 0.548], ["2020-09-23", 0.547], ["2020-09-24", 0.54], ["2020-09-28", 0.522], ["2020-09-30", 0.522], ["2020-10-04", 0.518], ["2020-10-04", 0.494], ["2020-10-05", 0.456], ["2020-10-05", 0.446], ["2020-10-06", 0.445], ["2020-10-06", 0.445], ["2020-10-07", 0.446], ["2020-10-09", 0.441], ["2020-10-10", 0.43], ["2020-10-14", 0.443], ["2020-10-15", 0.439], ["2020-10-15", 0.432], ["2020-10-16", 0.43], ["2020-10-16", 0.429], ["2020-10-31", 0.417], ["2020-10-31", 0.417], ["2020-11-01", 0.417], ["2020-11-02", 0.411], ["2020-11-04", 0.411], ["2020-11-05", 0.377], ["2020-11-05", 0.368], ["2020-11-07", 0.368], ["2020-11-07", 0.357], ["2020-11-08", 0.355], ["2020-11-09", 0.349], ["2020-11-14", 0.349], ["2020-11-15", 0.343], ["2020-11-16", 0.34], ["2020-11-20", 0.337], ["2020-11-20", 0.336], ["2020-11-24", 0.328], ["2020-11-24", 0.328], ["2020-11-25", 0.318], ["2020-11-26", 0.314], ["2020-11-27", 0.313], ["2020-11-27", 0.313], ["2020-11-30", 0.31], ["2020-12-03", 0.306], ["2020-12-03", 0.305], ["2020-12-04", 0.305], ["2020-12-04", 0.301], ["2020-12-05", 0.247], ["2020-12-05", 0.213], ["2020-12-06", 0.212], ["2020-12-07", 0.212], ["2020-12-08", 0.211], ["2020-12-08", 0.206], ["2020-12-12", 0.206], ["2020-12-12", 0.203], ["2020-12-15", 0.203], ["2020-12-15", 0.197], ["2020-12-17", 0.197], ["2020-12-18", 0.197], ["2020-12-18", 0.188], ["2020-12-20", 0.191], ["2020-12-21", 0.191], ["2020-12-23", 0.191], ["2020-12-24", 0.188], ["2020-12-25", 0.18], ["2020-12-26", 0.177], ["2020-12-27", 0.176], ["2020-12-28", 0.169], ["2020-12-28", 0.169], ["2020-12-29", 0.164], ["2020-12-30", 0.162], ["2020-12-31", 0.162], ["2020-12-31", 0.152], ["2021-01-01", 0.149], ["2021-01-01", 0.149], ["2021-01-02", 0.146], ["2021-01-03", 0.145], ["2021-01-03", 0.145]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4775/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Parallel question about Stefan Molyneux.
American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Recently Youtube and Reddit combined forces to target a number of persons and reddit communities, including the pro-Donald Trump subreddit r/The_Donald and Stefan Molyneux' Youtube channel. Richard Spencer is still active on Twitter, however, and has 80.6k followers. Twitter has in the past also banned accounts for persons or groups with similar views (European identity politics/nationalism), such as Jared Taylor/American Renaissance (in 2018). The question thus is:
Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?
Resolutions is positive if before by January 31st 2021 11:59EST, a credible news article or Twitter reports that Spencer's account has been suspended by Twitter citing violation of its policies, for at least a 30-day period, continuously. | true | 2021-01-31 | Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-18", 0.4], ["2020-07-18", 0.35], ["2020-07-19", 0.382], ["2020-07-20", 0.376], ["2020-07-21", 0.376], ["2020-07-22", 0.38], ["2020-07-23", 0.363], ["2020-07-24", 0.361], ["2020-07-24", 0.318], ["2020-07-24", 0.308], ["2020-07-25", 0.308], ["2020-07-26", 0.282], ["2020-07-27", 0.277], ["2020-07-28", 0.277], ["2020-07-29", 0.255], ["2020-07-29", 0.232], ["2020-07-30", 0.223], ["2020-07-30", 0.229], ["2020-07-31", 0.226], ["2020-08-03", 0.223], ["2020-08-11", 0.223], ["2020-08-14", 0.225], ["2020-08-17", 0.223], ["2020-08-19", 0.222], ["2020-08-20", 0.228], ["2020-08-22", 0.225], ["2020-08-22", 0.224], ["2020-08-29", 0.222], ["2020-08-30", 0.221], ["2020-09-04", 0.221], ["2020-09-04", 0.206], ["2020-09-23", 0.204], ["2020-09-25", 0.208], ["2020-10-02", 0.208], ["2020-10-03", 0.207], ["2020-10-04", 0.207], ["2020-10-04", 0.198], ["2020-10-05", 0.194], ["2020-10-05", 0.193], ["2020-10-06", 0.189], ["2020-10-09", 0.186], ["2020-10-10", 0.182], ["2020-10-10", 0.182], ["2020-10-12", 0.178], ["2020-10-12", 0.17], ["2020-10-14", 0.17], ["2020-10-16", 0.17], ["2020-10-18", 0.165], ["2020-10-19", 0.165], ["2020-10-19", 0.16], ["2020-10-20", 0.16], ["2020-10-30", 0.157], ["2020-10-31", 0.152], ["2020-10-31", 0.149], ["2020-11-01", 0.148], ["2020-11-01", 0.148], ["2020-11-01", 0.147], ["2020-11-02", 0.147], ["2020-11-04", 0.145], ["2020-11-05", 0.142], ["2020-11-08", 0.142], ["2020-11-15", 0.139], ["2020-11-18", 0.139], ["2020-11-18", 0.138], ["2020-11-24", 0.135], ["2020-11-25", 0.135], ["2020-11-26", 0.132], ["2020-11-27", 0.132], ["2020-11-30", 0.132], ["2020-12-04", 0.131], ["2020-12-04", 0.131], ["2020-12-07", 0.131], ["2020-12-08", 0.128], ["2020-12-12", 0.127], ["2020-12-15", 0.127], ["2020-12-15", 0.122], ["2020-12-16", 0.122], ["2020-12-17", 0.122], ["2020-12-18", 0.117], ["2020-12-20", 0.12], ["2020-12-23", 0.118], ["2020-12-23", 0.119], ["2020-12-24", 0.118], ["2020-12-24", 0.116], ["2020-12-25", 0.116], ["2020-12-26", 0.113], ["2020-12-26", 0.112], ["2020-12-27", 0.111], ["2020-12-28", 0.109], ["2020-12-28", 0.107], ["2020-12-29", 0.106], ["2020-12-29", 0.105], ["2020-12-29", 0.104], ["2020-12-31", 0.104], ["2020-12-31", 0.101], ["2020-12-31", 0.103], ["2021-01-01", 0.099], ["2021-01-01", 0.099], ["2021-01-02", 0.097], ["2021-01-02", 0.094], ["2021-01-02", 0.093]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4776/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Parallel question about Stefan Molyneux.
American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Recently Youtube and Reddit combined forces to target a number of persons and reddit communities, including the pro-Donald Trump subreddit r/The_Donald and Stefan Molyneux' Youtube channel. Charles Murray is still active on Twitter, however, and has 85.5k followers. Twitter has in the past also banned accounts for persons or groups with similar (perceived) views (European identity politics, interest in intelligence research), such as Jared Taylor/American Renaissance (in 2018). The question thus is:
Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?
Resolutions is positive if before by January 31st 2021 11:59EST, a credible news article or Twitter reports that Murray's account has been suspended by Twitter citing violation of its policies, for at least a 30-day period, continuously. | true | 2021-01-31 | Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-13 | 2020-07-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-10", 0.47], ["2020-07-11", 0.522], ["2020-07-12", 0.462], ["2020-07-13", 0.441], ["2020-07-14", 0.44], ["2020-07-16", 0.442], ["2020-07-17", 0.44], ["2020-07-19", 0.443], ["2020-07-20", 0.448], ["2020-07-21", 0.443], ["2020-07-22", 0.415], ["2020-07-24", 0.389], ["2020-07-26", 0.388], ["2020-07-27", 0.38], ["2020-07-28", 0.378], ["2020-07-30", 0.378], ["2020-07-31", 0.372], ["2020-08-01", 0.371], ["2020-08-04", 0.376], ["2020-08-05", 0.382], ["2020-08-08", 0.386], ["2020-08-08", 0.385], ["2020-08-09", 0.386], ["2020-08-13", 0.385], ["2020-08-17", 0.384], ["2020-08-20", 0.388], ["2020-08-21", 0.387], ["2020-08-25", 0.387], ["2020-08-31", 0.386], ["2020-08-31", 0.386], ["2020-09-07", 0.388], ["2020-09-08", 0.388], ["2020-09-15", 0.39], ["2020-09-15", 0.398], ["2020-09-16", 0.396], ["2020-09-24", 0.397], ["2020-09-27", 0.399], ["2020-10-02", 0.399], ["2020-10-02", 0.4], ["2020-10-05", 0.4], ["2020-10-05", 0.403], ["2020-10-08", 0.403], ["2020-10-09", 0.406], ["2020-10-13", 0.406], ["2020-10-14", 0.407], ["2020-10-16", 0.419], ["2020-10-16", 0.426], ["2020-10-18", 0.428], ["2020-10-19", 0.432], ["2020-10-20", 0.432], ["2020-10-21", 0.436], ["2020-10-23", 0.436], ["2020-10-30", 0.437], ["2020-10-31", 0.442], ["2020-11-03", 0.442], ["2020-11-03", 0.446], ["2020-11-06", 0.446], ["2020-11-07", 0.449], ["2020-11-09", 0.451], ["2020-11-26", 0.452], ["2020-11-27", 0.452], ["2020-11-29", 0.453], ["2020-11-30", 0.452], ["2020-12-06", 0.452], ["2020-12-08", 0.454], ["2020-12-11", 0.453], ["2020-12-11", 0.454], ["2020-12-13", 0.454], ["2020-12-15", 0.456], ["2020-12-15", 0.463], ["2020-12-24", 0.463], ["2020-12-26", 0.465], ["2020-12-31", 0.465], ["2021-01-03", 0.461], ["2021-01-04", 0.465], ["2021-01-05", 0.463], ["2021-01-10", 0.465], ["2021-01-11", 0.467], ["2021-01-13", 0.467], ["2021-01-17", 0.469], ["2021-01-18", 0.468], ["2021-01-19", 0.468], ["2021-01-20", 0.469], ["2021-01-21", 0.47], ["2021-01-22", 0.51], ["2021-01-24", 0.574], ["2021-01-24", 0.616], ["2021-01-25", 0.623], ["2021-01-26", 0.627], ["2021-01-28", 0.628], ["2021-01-29", 0.63], ["2021-01-30", 0.631], ["2021-02-02", 0.631], ["2021-02-03", 0.635], ["2021-02-04", 0.642], ["2021-02-05", 0.643], ["2021-02-07", 0.644], ["2021-02-09", 0.648], ["2021-02-10", 0.652], ["2021-02-11", 0.654], ["2021-02-13", 0.657]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4783/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | On June 22nd, Scott Alexander took down the blog Slate Star Codex due to an in-progress article by a technology reporter from the New York Times, replacing it with a post explaining his rationale. According to Alexander, the journalist was going to publish Scott's real name in association with his blog in this article, as part of a general NYT policy of including real names in articles.
While no article was published within two weeks of this, the Metaculus community median currently assigns a high probability that some article mentioning the topic will be released by July 2021.
If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander before July 2021, will it include his surname?
If the NYT publishes no such articles by that date, this will resolve ambiguously. If the NYT publishes multiple such article by that date, this will resolve positively if any of them contain his surname.
A similar short-fuse question resolved ambiguously on 2020-07-09. | true | 2021-03-01 | If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name? | metaculus | 1 |
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American owned social media networks are increasingly censoring their networks for political speech. Twitter too increasingly censors (bans/suspends) accounts, Wikipedia keeps a list of incidents. Lindsay has been critical of censorship for years, and recently (9th July) his account was temporarily unavailable for unexplained reasons. This might suggest a ban in nearing.
Will James Lindsay (@ConceptualJames) receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?
Resolution is positive if before by January 31st 2021 11:59EST, a credible news article or Twitter reports that Lindsay's account has been suspended by Twitter citing violation of its policies, for at least a 30-day period, continuously. | true | 2021-01-31 | Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question asks:
Will a pathogen which is not SARS-CoV-2 be identified as having caused hundreds of excess cases of pneumonia in Kazakhstan in the months of June & July 2020?
This question will resolve positive if, by the date of resolution:
A pathogen other than SARS-CoV-2 is identified by credible media reports as having caused more than 200 cases of pneumonia in Kazakhstan. Wording referring to “the majority of the excess cases”, or “the excess cases” is sufficient.
This pathogen has not historically been a cause of pneumonia during these months in Kazakhstan.
Otherwise, the question resolves negative. | true | 2020-08-12 | Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19? | metaculus | 0 |
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Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 "Tesla stock price is too high imo."
As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock was valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization was $286.33 billion - making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined, and making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.
This extraordinary appreciation in Tesla's stock price has led some to claim that Tesla is currently the subject of a speculative bubble.
This question asks: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 1 January 2021?
This question resolves positively if Tesla's stock closes below $1,000 per share at any point after this question opens, before January 1 2021. The question resolves negatively if this does not happen. An intraday dip below $1,000 does not suffice for positive resolution; the closing price must be below $1,000. Exactly $1,000 does not suffice.
In the event that Tesla ceases to be a publicly traded company before resolution, the question resolves ambiguously. In the event that Tesla conducts a stock split before resolution, once the stock begins trading on a split-adjusted basis, the reference to "$1,000 per share" shall be scaled in accordance with the stock split to maintain the same real value. | true | 2020-08-03 | [Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-04-20 | 2020-07-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-16", 0.505], ["2020-07-18", 0.467], ["2020-07-20", 0.523], ["2020-07-21", 0.529], ["2020-07-22", 0.532], ["2020-07-25", 0.531], ["2020-07-27", 0.53], ["2020-07-28", 0.522], ["2020-07-30", 0.579], ["2020-08-01", 0.582], ["2020-08-03", 0.583], ["2020-08-05", 0.643], ["2020-08-08", 0.657], ["2020-08-10", 0.666], ["2020-08-11", 0.677], ["2020-08-14", 0.677], ["2020-08-15", 0.681], ["2020-08-17", 0.686], ["2020-08-20", 0.686], ["2020-08-22", 0.68], ["2020-08-23", 0.679], ["2020-08-25", 0.677], ["2020-08-26", 0.677], ["2020-08-29", 0.677], ["2020-09-01", 0.674], ["2020-09-02", 0.674], ["2020-09-04", 0.674], ["2020-09-06", 0.674], ["2020-09-07", 0.674], ["2020-09-09", 0.674], ["2020-09-11", 0.674], ["2020-09-14", 0.678], ["2020-09-16", 0.678], ["2020-09-19", 0.678], ["2020-09-20", 0.678], ["2020-09-25", 0.678], ["2020-09-26", 0.684], ["2020-09-27", 0.684], ["2020-09-30", 0.684], ["2020-10-06", 0.684], ["2020-10-08", 0.684], ["2020-10-10", 0.685], ["2020-10-12", 0.685], ["2020-10-14", 0.685], ["2020-10-16", 0.685], ["2020-10-17", 0.684], ["2020-10-21", 0.685], ["2020-10-23", 0.686], ["2020-10-25", 0.69], ["2020-10-26", 0.69], ["2020-10-28", 0.69], ["2020-11-01", 0.691], ["2020-11-03", 0.691], ["2020-11-06", 0.691], ["2020-11-09", 0.688], ["2020-11-11", 0.69], ["2020-11-17", 0.69], ["2020-11-19", 0.69], ["2020-11-19", 0.691], ["2020-11-24", 0.691], ["2020-11-26", 0.691], ["2020-12-01", 0.691], ["2020-12-03", 0.691], ["2020-12-06", 0.691], ["2020-12-08", 0.694], ["2020-12-09", 0.696], ["2020-12-12", 0.695], ["2020-12-15", 0.696], ["2020-12-16", 0.695], ["2020-12-21", 0.696], ["2020-12-24", 0.696], ["2020-12-26", 0.696], ["2020-12-31", 0.695], ["2021-01-03", 0.695], ["2021-01-04", 0.695], ["2021-01-06", 0.697], ["2021-01-08", 0.696], ["2021-01-10", 0.697], ["2021-01-12", 0.698], ["2021-01-13", 0.697], ["2021-01-15", 0.696], ["2021-01-16", 0.694], ["2021-01-19", 0.694], ["2021-01-21", 0.691], ["2021-01-24", 0.691], ["2021-01-27", 0.691], ["2021-01-29", 0.692], ["2021-01-31", 0.692], ["2021-02-02", 0.694], ["2021-02-04", 0.695], ["2021-02-06", 0.697], ["2021-02-09", 0.692], ["2021-02-11", 0.695], ["2021-02-13", 0.69], ["2021-02-15", 0.693], ["2021-02-18", 0.693], ["2021-02-20", 0.694], ["2021-02-23", 0.694], ["2021-02-25", 0.695], ["2021-02-27", 0.696], ["2021-03-01", 0.697]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4816/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Derek Chauvin is,
an American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world.
Chauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added.
Some have suggested that he will be acquitted of his murder charges. From a Medium post,
There are six crucial pieces of information — six facts — that have been largely omitted from discussion on the Chauvin’s conduct. Taken together, they likely exonerate the officer of a murder charge. [...]
George Floyd was experiencing cardiopulmonary and psychological distress minutes before he was placed on the ground, let alone had a knee to his neck.
The Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) allows the use of neck restraint on suspects who actively resist arrest, and George Floyd actively resisted arrest on two occasions, including immediately prior to neck restraint being used.
The officers were recorded on their body cams assessing George Floyd as suffering from “excited delirium syndrome” (ExDS), a condition which the MPD considers an extreme threat to both the officers and the suspect. A white paper used by the MPD acknowledges that ExDS suspects may die irrespective of force involved. The officers’ response to this situation was in line with MPD guidelines for ExDS.
Restraining the suspect on his or her abdomen (prone restraint) is a common tactic in ExDS situations, and the white paper used by the MPD instructs the officers to control the suspect until paramedics arrive.
Floyd’s autopsy revealed a potentially lethal concoction of drugs — not just a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl, but also methamphetamine. Together with his history of drug abuse and two serious heart conditions, Floyd’s condition was exceptionally and unusually fragile.
Chauvin’s neck restraint is unlikely to have exerted a dangerous amount of force to Floyd’s neck. Floyd is shown on video able to lift his head and neck, and a robust study on double-knee restraints showed a median force exertion of approximately approximately 105lbs.
This question resolves positively if Derek Chauvin is acquitted of ALL murder charges OR all murder charges against him are dropped. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If he dies before resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.
Only convictions for offences actually called "murder" trigger negative resolution ; conviction for other offences such as manslaughter does not. | true | 2021-03-01 | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will EA Global: London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?
The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location at the scheduled dates. It resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London. Note that resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event.
There were 2 previous questions on 2020 EA Global conferences (which — unlike this question — asked about cancellation/rescheduling due to COVID-19 specifically):
EA Global San Francisco 2020
EA Global London 2020 | true | 2021-04-29 | Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-07-21 | 2020-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-17", 0.9], ["2020-07-17", 0.875], ["2020-07-17", 0.833], ["2020-07-18", 0.85], ["2020-07-18", 0.85], ["2020-07-18", 0.786], ["2020-07-18", 0.797], ["2020-07-18", 0.797], ["2020-07-18", 0.81], ["2020-07-18", 0.81], ["2020-07-18", 0.796], ["2020-07-18", 0.796], ["2020-07-18", 0.761], ["2020-07-18", 0.807], ["2020-07-18", 0.807], ["2020-07-19", 0.813], ["2020-07-19", 0.813], ["2020-07-19", 0.818], ["2020-07-19", 0.818], ["2020-07-19", 0.811], ["2020-07-19", 0.827], ["2020-07-20", 0.827], ["2020-07-20", 0.855], ["2020-07-20", 0.853], ["2020-07-21", 0.853], ["2020-07-21", 0.862], ["2020-07-21", 0.862], ["2020-07-21", 0.868], ["2020-07-21", 0.874]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4835/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In March 2019, a report into Russian activity including "allegations of espionage, subversion and interference in elections" was finalised by the UK Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee.
It was referred to Number 10 on 17 October of that year.
At the start of November, Number 10 indicated that there was no intention of releasing it before the General Election on 12 December, despite prominent calls for its immediate release, including from the chairman of the committee, Dominic Grieve.
In 2020, news emerged that Boris Johnson was planning to replace the head of the Intelligence and Security committee with Chris Grayling, a former transport secretary whose track record includes a widely discussed awarding of a £13.8m contract to provide freight services in case of a No-Deal Brexit to a company which had never run a Ferry service and owned no ships. This decision was loudly, and repeatedly criticised, including by Johnson's own Conservative Party.
On 2020/7/15, however, Chris Grayling failed to win the vote to gain leadership of the committee, despite the Conservatives having control of it. The winner, a Conservative MP named Julian Lewis, was promptly kicked out of the Conservative Party.
As of 2020/07/16, no report has been released.
This question asks:
Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish a report into Russian interference in UK democracy, before the end of July?
This question will resolve on the basis of credible media reports. In the case of minor redactions, the report will still count as having been released.
If the report is released, but with redactions so significant that multiple mainstream UK newspapers mention a cover-up, this question should resolve ambiguously. For the purpose of this question, mainstream UK newspapers are any newspapers which appear on the BBC's The Papers page. | true | 2020-07-31 | [Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July? | metaculus | 1 |
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"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"
The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023. | true | 2021-03-18 | Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars? | metaculus | 1 |
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The United States has sent two aircraft carriers in the South China Sea and has for the first time officially pushed back against China's disputed territorial claims, saying it would use "all tools" to oppose China. Together this increases the possibility of a regional conflict.
This comes not too long after a deadly border conflict between India and China in which at least 20 people were killed. Would we be likely to see a similar level of conflict between the US and China in 2020?
This question will resolve positive if a credible media report indicates that there are at least five Chinese and/or American military personnel killed within a one-week period, with all deaths attributed to some conflict between the Chinese and American armed forces, and with all deaths taking place within the South China Sea before 2021.
This question will close retroactively to three days prior to the date of the first death of the one-week period. | true | 2020-10-31 | Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
In March 2020, Biden committed to choosing a female running mate if he became the Democratic nominee.
In July 2020, Biden revealed that he was considering four African-American women as potential running mates.
"I am not committed to naming any (of the potential candidates), but the people I've named, and among them there are four Black women," Biden told MSNBC's Joy Reid on "The ReidOut."
...
Biden is considering a broad tier of candidates to be his running mate, after pledging earlier this year to pick a woman for the job. CNN previously reported that Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Rep. Val Demings of Florida, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Obama administration national security adviser Susan Rice and Rep. Karen Bass of California are among the Black women being considered.
This question asks: Before August 20 2020, will Joe Biden or the Biden campaign confirm that Senator Kamala Harris has been selected as Biden's running mate in the 2020 presidential election, and that she has accepted the offer?
For a positive resolution, before August 20 2020 it must be confirmed by Biden or his campaign that Kamala Harris has been offered and has accepted the role of Joe Biden's running mate in the 2020 presidential election. If such confirmation is not given by that time, the question will resolve negatively.
In the event that such announcement is made before this question closes, the question should close retroactively 12 hours before the announcement is made. | true | 2020-08-02 | [Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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This question asks:
Will there be a partial or complete failure of the Three Gorges Dam before the end of September?
Resolution will be by credible media reports, for positive resolution the reports must indicate that a failure occured before midnight (local time) on 2020/09/30.
Failure as a result of deliberate human action with the intent to cause it, for example sabotage or terrorist activity, triggers ambiguous resolution.
In the case of conflicting media reports, a call can be made by a Metaculus Admin, though in this case they may choose to resolve as Ambiguous. | true | 2020-09-01 | [Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September? | metaculus | 0 |
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Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.
One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model. | Science & Tech | This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?
This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.
Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice. | true | 2021-03-30 | Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
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Mike S. Adams (born Columbus, Mississippi, October 30, 1964[1] - July 23, 2020) was an American conservative political columnist, writer, author and professor at University of North Carolina Wilmington (UNCW).[1][2]
Recently, in June, it was reported that the university opened an investigation into whether he had lied on his resume:
WILMINGTON, N.C. (WECT) - Mike Adams has survived multiple calls for his termination. The UNC-Wilmington criminology and sociology professor sued his employer — and won — after the university tried to deny him tenure over public statements that many found to be racist, misogynistic, and homophobic. Some viewed the now-tenured professor as untouchable because of first amendment protections of his free speech, but new questions about his resume - now being refuted by Adams after this story was originally published - could change that.
WECT has confirmed the accuracy of some of the information listed on Adams’ resume is, at best, questionable. WECT has further confirmed providing misleading or false information to the university could be a fireable offense under UNCW policy.
Yesterday, July 23, 2020, it was reported that he had been found death in his home. The police were vague on the cause:
Officials have confirmed the identity of the body but provided no further information about what may have happened.
Resolved: did Adams die by suicide?
This question resolves positively if the assigned coroner rules it was a probable or definite suicide.
If there are multiple released coroner reports of equal status (i.e., later one does not overrule the earlier one), or the report is unclear on the cause of death, the question resolves as ambiguous. | true | 2020-08-31 | Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide? | metaculus | 1 |
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Several public forecasts for the election already exist, probably the most famous of which is this model by The Economist, which puts Trump's chance of winning significantly lower than the Metaculus community median.
Project 538's own forecast is widely anticipated, but has not yet been released, although an aggregated poll tracker is available. 538's own analysis of how well their model did in the 2018 midterms is available here.
This question asks:
When 538's presidential election forecast is released, will the chance of a Trump victory be higher than that given by the forecast from The Economist at that time?
In the case that multiple forecasts are released by 538, the model considering the most information is chosen for this question. For example, if, like in 2016, there is a "nowcast", a "polls-only forecast", and a "polls-plus forecast", the "polls-plus forecast" would be chosen. In the case that it is not clear for this description which model should be considered, 538's flagship model will be chosen using the algorithm described in a comment by @underyx.
If the models give the same probability when rounded to the nearest %, this question resolves as negative.
If 538 never releases an election forecast, or if The Economist withdraws theirs before 538's model is released, this question resolves ambiguously. | true | 2020-08-12 | [Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-04 | 2020-07-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-01", 0.48], ["2020-08-01", 0.393], ["2020-08-01", 0.482], ["2020-08-02", 0.37], ["2020-08-02", 0.314], ["2020-08-03", 0.308], ["2020-08-03", 0.302], ["2020-08-04", 0.296], ["2020-08-05", 0.298], ["2020-08-05", 0.298], ["2020-08-05", 0.298], ["2020-08-07", 0.294], ["2020-08-08", 0.29], ["2020-08-08", 0.286], ["2020-08-12", 0.286], ["2020-08-13", 0.283], ["2020-08-16", 0.283], ["2020-08-17", 0.28], ["2020-08-19", 0.273], ["2020-08-19", 0.275], ["2020-08-20", 0.263], ["2020-08-21", 0.276], ["2020-08-29", 0.274], ["2020-09-03", 0.273], ["2020-09-05", 0.271], ["2020-09-05", 0.265], ["2020-09-05", 0.266], ["2020-09-06", 0.266], ["2020-09-06", 0.266], ["2020-09-09", 0.266], ["2020-09-10", 0.265], ["2020-09-10", 0.263], ["2020-09-11", 0.263], ["2020-09-11", 0.263], ["2020-09-11", 0.262], ["2020-09-13", 0.261], ["2020-09-13", 0.262], ["2020-09-15", 0.263], ["2020-09-16", 0.224], ["2020-09-16", 0.214], ["2020-09-16", 0.195], ["2020-09-17", 0.193], ["2020-09-17", 0.188], ["2020-09-18", 0.185], ["2020-09-19", 0.185], ["2020-09-22", 0.185], ["2020-09-24", 0.184], ["2020-09-29", 0.184], ["2020-09-29", 0.184], ["2020-09-30", 0.181], ["2020-09-30", 0.183], ["2020-10-01", 0.182], ["2020-10-03", 0.182], ["2020-10-04", 0.181], ["2020-10-04", 0.18], ["2020-10-05", 0.18], ["2020-10-05", 0.18], ["2020-10-07", 0.18], ["2020-10-07", 0.18], ["2020-10-08", 0.175], ["2020-10-09", 0.175], ["2020-10-10", 0.174], ["2020-10-10", 0.167], ["2020-10-10", 0.161], ["2020-10-11", 0.161], ["2020-10-11", 0.159], ["2020-10-12", 0.159], ["2020-10-12", 0.16], ["2020-10-14", 0.159], ["2020-10-15", 0.158], ["2020-10-16", 0.156], ["2020-10-16", 0.155], ["2020-10-18", 0.155], ["2020-10-19", 0.154], ["2020-10-19", 0.153], ["2020-10-20", 0.152], ["2020-10-21", 0.151], ["2020-10-22", 0.15], ["2020-10-22", 0.15], ["2020-10-24", 0.15], ["2020-10-26", 0.148], ["2020-10-26", 0.148], ["2020-10-26", 0.145], ["2020-10-26", 0.144], ["2020-10-27", 0.143], ["2020-10-27", 0.142], ["2020-10-28", 0.143], ["2020-10-29", 0.142], ["2020-10-29", 0.14], ["2020-10-29", 0.14], ["2020-10-30", 0.141], ["2020-10-30", 0.142], ["2020-10-30", 0.145], ["2020-10-31", 0.144], ["2020-10-31", 0.144], ["2020-10-31", 0.145], ["2020-11-01", 0.143], ["2020-11-01", 0.142], ["2020-11-02", 0.136], ["2020-11-02", 0.125], ["2020-11-03", 0.124]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4896/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | A similar question to this was asked in 2016.
The fivethirtyeight.com team, lead by Nate Silver, was able to predict exactly the 2012 state-by-state electoral map for the presidential election. In 2008 their prediction missed on only a single state, Indiana, which Obama won by a 0.1% margin. However, in 2016, they missed several states -- such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconcin -- ultimately missing the final election outcome.
See for example this writeup on Mashable after his 2012 predictions aced the electoral map.
Will the 538 model repeat its 2012 success and assign greater than 50% probability to the correct outcome in every state and electoral district?
This will resolve as positive if the final prediction from fivethirtyeight.com before the election matches exactly the electoral results post-election for each state. In other words FiveThirtyEight must predict the modal outcome for the election as being the exact real outcome that actually happened. (Maine and Nebraska allow their electoral votes to be split; for these two states, success requires all the districts to be called correctly.) If the site has multiple prediction models showing as of the day before the election, whichever is highlighted as their best pick will be used. | true | 2020-11-03 | Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-07-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-27", 0.045], ["2020-07-28", 0.05], ["2020-07-28", 0.044], ["2020-07-29", 0.052], ["2020-07-30", 0.051], ["2020-07-30", 0.05], ["2020-07-31", 0.055], ["2020-07-31", 0.055], ["2020-08-01", 0.055], ["2020-08-01", 0.055], ["2020-08-04", 0.055], ["2020-08-08", 0.054], ["2020-08-10", 0.054], ["2020-08-12", 0.054], ["2020-08-16", 0.053], ["2020-08-17", 0.053], ["2020-08-19", 0.054], ["2020-08-20", 0.055], ["2020-08-21", 0.055], ["2020-08-21", 0.053], ["2020-08-22", 0.055], ["2020-08-22", 0.054], ["2020-08-24", 0.053], ["2020-08-24", 0.052], ["2020-08-26", 0.051], ["2020-08-30", 0.051], ["2020-08-31", 0.051], ["2020-08-31", 0.051], ["2020-09-05", 0.051], ["2020-09-08", 0.047], ["2020-09-09", 0.047], ["2020-09-16", 0.047], ["2020-09-25", 0.047], ["2020-09-27", 0.046], ["2020-09-29", 0.046], ["2020-09-30", 0.046], ["2020-10-02", 0.045], ["2020-10-04", 0.045], ["2020-10-04", 0.045], ["2020-10-09", 0.045], ["2020-10-10", 0.041], ["2020-10-10", 0.041], ["2020-10-11", 0.041], ["2020-10-14", 0.04], ["2020-10-15", 0.039], ["2020-10-17", 0.039], ["2020-10-22", 0.039], ["2020-11-01", 0.038], ["2020-11-02", 0.038], ["2020-11-03", 0.038], ["2020-11-04", 0.039], ["2020-11-06", 0.039], ["2020-11-06", 0.037], ["2020-11-09", 0.036], ["2020-11-10", 0.036], ["2020-11-10", 0.038], ["2020-11-17", 0.038], ["2020-11-17", 0.037], ["2020-11-19", 0.037], ["2020-11-20", 0.036], ["2020-11-21", 0.036], ["2020-11-22", 0.036], ["2020-11-27", 0.036], ["2020-11-27", 0.035], ["2020-11-29", 0.035], ["2020-11-29", 0.035], ["2020-11-30", 0.035], ["2020-12-01", 0.035], ["2020-12-03", 0.034], ["2020-12-04", 0.034], ["2020-12-05", 0.034], ["2020-12-06", 0.034], ["2020-12-07", 0.034], ["2020-12-09", 0.033], ["2020-12-10", 0.035], ["2020-12-11", 0.035], ["2020-12-11", 0.034], ["2020-12-13", 0.036], ["2020-12-13", 0.035], ["2020-12-14", 0.035], ["2020-12-15", 0.035], ["2020-12-15", 0.035], ["2020-12-16", 0.035], ["2020-12-17", 0.034], ["2020-12-17", 0.034], ["2020-12-18", 0.034], ["2020-12-19", 0.033], ["2020-12-22", 0.032], ["2020-12-22", 0.032], ["2020-12-23", 0.032], ["2020-12-24", 0.031], ["2020-12-24", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-26", 0.03], ["2020-12-27", 0.028], ["2020-12-28", 0.028], ["2020-12-28", 0.028], ["2020-12-29", 0.027], ["2020-12-30", 0.024], ["2020-12-31", 0.022]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4900/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | There is serious concern that China's Three Gorges Dam may fail due to heavy flooding.
And that if it fails, it would kill millions of people, perhaps 100 million according to some claims, and displace even more. Up to ~400 million people live downstream of the dam.
It would arguably be the biggest non-pandemic disaster in history and have devastating second-order effects, including:
exacerbation of the coronavirus, famine, nuclear radiation worse than Fukushima, further instability in Great Power dynamics, and global economic depression/collapse.
It is no exaggeration to say that a sudden collapse of this dam could be the spark of cascading civilizational collapse. It is worth examining even if the risk is small.
From the National Review:
China has been suffering through record rains the past weeks, leading to the worst flooding in the country in decades. There is little relief in sight, and the Yangtze River is now above flood level, according to China’s Ministry of Water Resources. A few days ago, officials admitted that certain “peripheral” structures of the massive Three Gorges Dam deformed due to the building water pressure. Stunning pictures of water being released to relieve pressure are raising the specter of whether the entire dam could fail (some good photos here). Some online satellite photos purporting to show the buckling of the dam, however, should be viewed with skepticism.
Still, the damage that has already occurred from the record deluge is significant, with numerous cities upriver from the dam already flooded[...]
All that would be dwarfed if the Three Gorges Dam failed. The dam was built from 1994 to 2006, at a cost of $31 billion and displacing 1.4 million people for its construction, precisely to lessen the risk of devastating flooding along the Yangtze, a perennial problem in China since ancient times. The river’s basin accounts for nearly half of China’s agricultural output, and it runs through major cities, such as Wuhan, with 10 million people.
Chinese authorities have already evacuated 38 million people downriver. The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday. Yet more rain is predicted, and if smaller, older dams upriver from Three Gorges overflow or fail, then the pressure on the main dam could quickly overwhelm either its capacity or even its structural integrity.
While an outright failure of the dam may not be the primary danger, nonetheless its geopolitical consequences are staggering to contemplate. It would be a black swan of epic proportions, China’s Chernobyl moment. A tsunami-like wave from a breach in the Three Gorges Dam could wipe out millions of acres of farmland right before the autumn harvest, possibly leading to famine-like conditions. As it is also the world’s largest hydroelectric power station, a failure would lead to huge power outages. Low-lying cities of millions along the Yangtze’s banks cities could become uninhabitable and the death toll could be staggering.
See the Effective Altruism Forum for more info and discussion.
This question will resolve positively if at least 10 news media sources report that at least 10,000 people died due to flooding as a result of Three Gorges Dam collapsing in 2020, otherwise negatively. | true | 2020-12-31 | Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2020-07-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-01", 0.2], ["2020-08-02", 0.145], ["2020-08-03", 0.145], ["2020-08-04", 0.149], ["2020-08-06", 0.164], ["2020-08-07", 0.163], ["2020-08-09", 0.157], ["2020-08-12", 0.156], ["2020-08-13", 0.155], ["2020-08-15", 0.153], ["2020-08-18", 0.153], ["2020-08-20", 0.153], ["2020-08-22", 0.148], ["2020-08-29", 0.152], ["2020-08-29", 0.152], ["2020-08-31", 0.154], ["2020-09-02", 0.156], ["2020-09-03", 0.156], ["2020-09-05", 0.172], ["2020-09-07", 0.162], ["2020-09-09", 0.161], ["2020-09-11", 0.153], ["2020-09-13", 0.148], ["2020-09-14", 0.153], ["2020-09-16", 0.153], ["2020-09-18", 0.152], ["2020-09-19", 0.152], ["2020-09-21", 0.149], ["2020-09-23", 0.146], ["2020-09-24", 0.153], ["2020-09-26", 0.153], ["2020-09-28", 0.154], ["2020-09-30", 0.154], ["2020-10-01", 0.153], ["2020-10-02", 0.153], ["2020-10-05", 0.145], ["2020-10-06", 0.145], ["2020-10-08", 0.145], ["2020-10-09", 0.149], ["2020-10-11", 0.149], ["2020-10-12", 0.148], ["2020-10-13", 0.148], ["2020-10-15", 0.146], ["2020-10-16", 0.146], ["2020-10-19", 0.145], ["2020-10-20", 0.144], ["2020-10-22", 0.144], ["2020-10-24", 0.143], ["2020-10-25", 0.144], ["2020-10-26", 0.141], ["2020-10-29", 0.137], ["2020-10-31", 0.137], ["2020-11-01", 0.137], ["2020-11-03", 0.136], ["2020-11-05", 0.137], ["2020-11-06", 0.136], ["2020-11-07", 0.136], ["2020-11-09", 0.136], ["2020-11-11", 0.142], ["2020-11-13", 0.142], ["2020-11-15", 0.142], ["2020-11-16", 0.142], ["2020-11-18", 0.142], ["2020-11-20", 0.142], ["2020-11-22", 0.142], ["2020-11-24", 0.142], ["2020-11-25", 0.142], ["2020-11-27", 0.142], ["2020-11-30", 0.141], ["2020-12-02", 0.14], ["2020-12-04", 0.14], ["2020-12-06", 0.141], ["2020-12-10", 0.141], ["2020-12-11", 0.141], ["2020-12-12", 0.141], ["2020-12-15", 0.141], ["2020-12-16", 0.141], ["2020-12-18", 0.141], ["2020-12-21", 0.141], ["2020-12-23", 0.141], ["2020-12-25", 0.14], ["2020-12-27", 0.139], ["2020-12-29", 0.139], ["2020-12-30", 0.139], ["2020-12-31", 0.139], ["2021-01-02", 0.139], ["2021-01-04", 0.139], ["2021-01-05", 0.14], ["2021-01-07", 0.14], ["2021-01-09", 0.137], ["2021-01-12", 0.135], ["2021-01-13", 0.133], ["2021-01-15", 0.133], ["2021-01-16", 0.132], ["2021-01-18", 0.132], ["2021-01-20", 0.133], ["2021-01-22", 0.131], ["2021-01-24", 0.13], ["2021-01-26", 0.128], ["2021-01-28", 0.12], ["2021-01-29", 0.121]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4906/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | According to a Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.
From a Washington Post editorial,
There is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should "choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
Some, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released a statement saying that Biden was a "healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president." Others have pointed to Biden's stutter as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline.
At one press conference, Biden said to a reporter, "I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against."
This question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?
Resolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem. | true | 2021-01-29 | Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-15 | 2020-07-31 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-16", 0.02], ["2020-08-17", 0.05], ["2020-08-17", 0.062], ["2020-08-18", 0.07], ["2020-08-19", 0.086], ["2020-08-19", 0.086], ["2020-08-19", 0.095], ["2020-08-21", 0.095], ["2020-08-28", 0.096], ["2020-08-31", 0.101], ["2020-09-10", 0.125], ["2020-09-12", 0.129], ["2020-09-13", 0.129], ["2020-09-13", 0.139], ["2020-09-29", 0.138], ["2020-09-29", 0.124], ["2020-10-01", 0.132], ["2020-10-02", 0.129], ["2020-10-03", 0.131], ["2020-10-04", 0.128], ["2020-10-06", 0.128], ["2020-10-06", 0.124], ["2020-10-09", 0.124], ["2020-10-10", 0.126], ["2020-10-12", 0.126], ["2020-10-17", 0.127], ["2020-10-17", 0.128], ["2020-10-17", 0.128], ["2020-10-17", 0.13], ["2020-10-18", 0.13], ["2020-10-18", 0.139], ["2020-10-19", 0.138], ["2020-10-26", 0.136], ["2020-10-26", 0.138], ["2020-10-28", 0.135], ["2020-10-29", 0.131], ["2020-10-29", 0.131], ["2020-10-30", 0.131], ["2020-11-01", 0.132], ["2020-11-01", 0.13], ["2020-11-04", 0.13], ["2020-11-04", 0.129], ["2020-11-04", 0.136], ["2020-11-05", 0.139], ["2020-11-05", 0.136], ["2020-11-05", 0.135], ["2020-11-05", 0.131], ["2020-11-06", 0.128], ["2020-11-06", 0.128], ["2020-11-06", 0.126], ["2020-11-06", 0.126], ["2020-11-07", 0.124], ["2020-11-07", 0.122], ["2020-11-08", 0.121], ["2020-11-08", 0.12], ["2020-11-08", 0.118], ["2020-11-09", 0.119], ["2020-11-09", 0.119], ["2020-11-09", 0.111], ["2020-11-10", 0.112], ["2020-11-11", 0.112], ["2020-11-11", 0.111], ["2020-11-12", 0.112], ["2020-11-12", 0.112], ["2020-11-12", 0.11], ["2020-11-12", 0.113], ["2020-11-12", 0.112], ["2020-11-13", 0.112], ["2020-11-13", 0.11], ["2020-11-13", 0.106], ["2020-11-13", 0.105], ["2020-11-13", 0.105], ["2020-11-13", 0.102], ["2020-11-13", 0.102], ["2020-11-14", 0.102], ["2020-11-14", 0.1], ["2020-11-14", 0.099], ["2020-11-14", 0.099], ["2020-11-14", 0.099], ["2020-11-15", 0.105], ["2020-11-15", 0.105], ["2020-11-17", 0.105], ["2020-11-18", 0.104], ["2020-11-18", 0.108], ["2020-11-18", 0.108], ["2020-11-18", 0.107], ["2020-11-18", 0.106], ["2020-11-18", 0.105], ["2020-11-20", 0.109], ["2020-11-20", 0.109], ["2020-11-20", 0.109], ["2020-11-20", 0.109], ["2020-11-21", 0.107], ["2020-11-23", 0.107], ["2020-11-24", 0.107], ["2020-11-27", 0.107], ["2020-11-28", 0.107], ["2020-11-30", 0.107], ["2020-12-01", 0.106], ["2020-12-06", 0.106], ["2020-12-07", 0.103]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4910/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In US presidential elections, after electors have voted, states send electoral certificates recording the electoral votes made; these are then tallied by Congress to find the winner of the presidential and vice presidential elections.
In the 1876 US presidential election, four states (Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Oregon) sent two contradictory electoral certificates to Congress. Both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, Rutherford Hayes and Samuel Tildern respectively, claimed victory. The Electoral Commission was temporarily formed to resolve the ambiguity. The Electoral Commission decided that Rutherford Hayes would become president in an 8-7 vote along partisan lines, and Samuel Tilden backed down and accepted this decision in exchange for ending Reconstruction in the informal Compromise of 1877.
In Will He Go?, Lawrence Douglas argues that such a thing could happen in the 2020 election, and gives various scenarios in which an ambiguity in the result could lead to the governor and legislature sending different certificates of electors to Congress.
Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?
This will resolve positively if multiple certificates from one state are read in the congressional join session for the counting of electoral college votes, or if there are credible news reports that competing certificates have been sent by at least one state. | true | 2020-12-13 | Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question asks, Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?
This question will be resolved negatively if there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president (for example due to resignation, death, or fleeing the country). In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, question will resolve positively only if Lukashenko remains in Belarus and continues to hold the "means of power" (broadly, controls the military and police). | true | 2021-01-31 | Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?
This question resolves positively if FRED's economic database reports that Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages is higher for Q2 2020 than for Q1 2020. The question resolves when the Q2 figures are first published. | true | 2020-09-28 | Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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New START is set to expire on February 5th 2021. There are provisions to extend this agreement by five years on the agreement of both the US and Russia, though the US wishes to renegotiate this:
Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to extend the treaty without any preconditions and warned that there is not enough time to negotiate a new agreement to replace it before next February. U.S. allies have also urged the Trump administration to extend the treaty,
Trump administration officials, however, have argued that New START is outdated and are instead prioritizing the pursuit of a broader agreement.
Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by February 5th 2021?
This will resolve positively if there are credible reports (such as by the Arms Control Association) of New START being extended, or a new nuclear agreement between the US and Russia that limits the number of deployed warheads or number of deployed delivery vehicles coming into force on or prior to February 5th 2021. | true | 2020-11-29 | Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Background
The presidential debates has been a staple of American presidential elections for many decades - where typically there are 3 presidential debates and 1 vice presidential debate before the election. This year, the status of the debates has been questioned due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and a couple of opinion pieces in the New York Times calling for the suspension of debates this year, see here and here.
Additionally, there is a metaculus question about whether presumed nominee Joe Biden will actually be the democratic nominee.
Currently, the commission on presidential debates has posted the dates and locations of the 3 planned debates.
Resolution Criteria
This is resolved as positive if a formal presidential debate occurs between Donald Trump and Joe Biden ever occurs for the 2020 election before the scheduled election day on November 3, 2020.
If the debate is held remotely by means of a live video link, this resolves positive. A text-based debate such as a twitter exchange is not sufficient for resolution.
If either Joe Biden or Donald Trump exit the presidential race before the debate, or if one or both are not present at a presidential debate (that may include third party candidates for example), this resolves negative. | true | 2020-09-15 | Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other? | metaculus | 1 |
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The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.
US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has similarly been campaigning for this move:
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in "organized terror attacks" designed to tear down government institutions.
“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.
Unsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, in Slate, we can read:
While the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.
In the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.
However, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.
The Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.
So it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is:
Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?
Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days.
It must happen before 2022.
It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election).
An "official list is" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. | true | 2021-11-15 | Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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This paper argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.
And this recent article indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction.
Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:
By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses?
Resolution will be via the FCC database, likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:
This would be governed by FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18.
Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like "viruses". | true | 2021-12-04 | Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles? | metaculus | 0 |
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Apple is well known for its size and revenues. Its worldwide annual revenue totaled $265 billion for the 2018 fiscal year. Apple is the world's largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies. As of January 2020, more than 1.5 billion Apple products are actively in use worldwide.
As of August 15 2020, Apple is the most valuable publicly-traded company in the world, with a market capitalization of over $1.96 trillion.
This question asks: Before 1 February 2021, will Apple's market cap fall below $1 trillion?
This question resolves positively in the event that Apple's market cap is less than $1 trillion at any time (including intra-day) before 1 February 2021, negatively if this does not occur, and ambiguously in the event that Apple ceases to be a publicly-traded company before 1 February 2021. | true | 2020-12-01 | Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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President Donald Trump said on [August 15th] he is considering a pardon for Edward Snowden, the former U.S. National Security Agency contractor - now living in Russia - whose spectacular leaks shook the U.S. intelligence community in 2013.
The Republican president's comments followed an interview (here) Trump gave to the New York Post this week in which he said of Snowden that "there are a lot of people that think that he is not being treated fairly" by U.S. law enforcement.
U.S. authorities for years have wanted Snowden returned to the United States to face a criminal trial on espionage charges brought in 2013.
Snowden fled the United States and was given asylum in Russia after he leaked a trove of secret files in 2013 to news organizations that revealed vast domestic and international surveillance operations carried out by the NSA.
Trump's softening stance toward Snowden represents a sharp reversal. Shortly after the leaks, Trump expressed (here) hostility toward Snowden, calling him "a spy who should be executed."
This question resolves positively if reputable media sources report that Edward Snowden received a federal pardon before noon on January 20th, 2021 (the scheduled end of president Trump's first term). Otherwise it resolves negatively. | true | 2020-12-01 | Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Some historical data, each of which would qualify if they took place in 2021:
Silk Road was taken down in 2013, along with Freedom Hosting Operation Onymous shut down hundreds of sites in 2014 Operation Pacifier shut down Playpen in 2015 Operation Bayonet shut down AlphaBay and others in 2017
Some examples that would not count: Operation Babylon shut down a website in 2015, but I don't see mainstream media coverage, so it would not be considered high profile. https://apnews.com/85942717e8fa40c09da1f2f3d6… this has arrests in 2019, but the story mentions the site shut down prior to those arrests Berlusconi was shut down in 2019 with arrests, but against no mainstream media coverage
I don't see anything in 2016 or 2018-20 that would qualify under these criteria, although I may have missed some. | true | 2021-09-01 | Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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On October 7, 2016, during the 2016 United States presidential election, The Washington Post published a video and accompanying article about then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and television host Billy Bush having "an extremely lewd conversation about women" in 2005. Trump and Bush were in a bus on their way to film an episode of Access Hollywood, a show owned by NBCUniversal. In the video, Trump described his attempt to seduce a married woman and indicated he might start kissing a woman that he and Bush were about to meet. [...]
The recording provoked strong reactions by media figures and politicians across the political spectrum. Statements from Republican officials were varied. Some, including Trump's vice-presidential running mate Mike Pence, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, indicated their disapproval of Trump's words but did not renounce their support or call for his resignation from the ticket. Other Republicans, most prominently former presidential nominee John McCain, stated that they would no longer support Trump's presidential campaign, and some called for his withdrawal from the ticket. House Speaker Paul Ryan announced that he would no longer defend or support Trump's campaign, although he did not officially retract his endorsement of Trump.
This question asks, will there be another incident of an authentic leaked Trump tape that upsets the election this time around in 2020?
A leaked Trump tape is defined as a video or audio recording that involves Donald Trump that was not widely available or known about before some critical event, such as a journalist revealing it to the public. A leaked Trump tape is said to have upset the election if at least 5 prominent politicians (defined below) announce their intention to withdraw their support or endorsement for Trump, and cite the tape in their announcement.
A politician is prominent if they belong to any of these classes of people,
Members of the House of Representatives
Senators
Sitting governors
Former major party presidential nominees
Anyone in Trump's cabinet
Anyone in Trump's immediate family
The tape must be considered authentic by at least 3 mainstream media sources, which for the purpose of this question are listed here: ABC News, NBC News, Fox News, PBS, BBC, CBS, The New York Times, CNN.
Determination is made via credible media reports. | true | 2020-11-01 | Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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“We are keen on the stability of the country, which will allow us to organise general elections ... within a reasonable time limit”.
The opposition to the former president declared that it would work with the putschists to achieve this goal. Meanwhile the United Nations Security Council condemned the coup and several African countries sanctioned Mali.
This question asks will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?
This question will resolve positive if a general election is held and negative otherwise (independently of which party is in power). | true | 2021-01-01 | Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-20 | 2020-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-23", 0.775], ["2020-08-24", 0.732], ["2020-08-24", 0.769], ["2020-08-24", 0.741], ["2020-08-24", 0.749], ["2020-08-24", 0.779], ["2020-08-25", 0.786], ["2020-08-25", 0.794], ["2020-08-25", 0.793], ["2020-08-25", 0.791], ["2020-08-25", 0.794], ["2020-08-26", 0.797], ["2020-08-27", 0.797], ["2020-08-27", 0.791], ["2020-08-28", 0.793], ["2020-08-30", 0.791], ["2020-08-31", 0.788], ["2020-08-31", 0.789], ["2020-08-31", 0.789], ["2020-09-01", 0.788], ["2020-09-01", 0.785], ["2020-09-01", 0.785], ["2020-09-01", 0.785], ["2020-09-02", 0.768], ["2020-09-02", 0.771], ["2020-09-02", 0.771], ["2020-09-03", 0.769], ["2020-09-03", 0.769], ["2020-09-05", 0.776], ["2020-09-05", 0.776], ["2020-09-09", 0.773], ["2020-09-21", 0.771], ["2020-09-21", 0.771], ["2020-10-04", 0.773], ["2020-10-09", 0.773], ["2020-10-18", 0.771], ["2020-10-18", 0.769], ["2020-10-19", 0.768], ["2020-10-19", 0.762], ["2020-10-20", 0.762], ["2020-10-20", 0.76], ["2020-11-07", 0.757], ["2020-11-07", 0.753], ["2020-11-07", 0.754], ["2020-11-07", 0.754], ["2020-11-08", 0.749], ["2020-11-08", 0.749], ["2020-11-08", 0.75], ["2020-11-10", 0.75], ["2020-11-18", 0.738], ["2020-11-19", 0.729], ["2020-11-19", 0.732], ["2020-11-19", 0.729], ["2020-11-19", 0.729], ["2020-11-19", 0.725], ["2020-11-20", 0.725], ["2020-11-21", 0.725], ["2020-11-21", 0.722], ["2020-11-22", 0.714], ["2020-11-22", 0.714], ["2020-11-22", 0.713], ["2020-11-22", 0.713], ["2020-11-22", 0.712], ["2020-11-23", 0.712], ["2020-11-23", 0.711], ["2020-11-23", 0.704], ["2020-11-23", 0.704], ["2020-11-23", 0.704], ["2020-11-25", 0.704], ["2020-11-25", 0.704], ["2020-11-25", 0.702], ["2020-11-25", 0.7], ["2020-11-25", 0.699], ["2020-11-25", 0.695], ["2020-11-26", 0.694], ["2020-11-26", 0.696], ["2020-11-26", 0.693], ["2020-12-03", 0.693], ["2020-12-03", 0.692], ["2020-12-11", 0.691], ["2020-12-11", 0.691], ["2020-12-11", 0.691], ["2020-12-11", 0.694], ["2020-12-15", 0.694], ["2020-12-24", 0.694], ["2021-01-04", 0.693], ["2021-01-09", 0.693], ["2021-01-14", 0.69], ["2021-01-15", 0.686], ["2021-01-15", 0.684], ["2021-01-16", 0.684], ["2021-01-16", 0.682], ["2021-01-16", 0.681], ["2021-01-17", 0.682], ["2021-01-17", 0.682], ["2021-01-18", 0.678], ["2021-01-19", 0.671], ["2021-01-19", 0.666], ["2021-01-19", 0.651], ["2021-01-19", 0.647], ["2021-01-19", 0.648]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5105/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As reported by Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020:
Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.
The charges were contained in an indictment (PDF) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others "orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors".
The indictment claims the "scheme" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.
Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets.
The official charges are as follows:
BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”
Those representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.
Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?
The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely).
Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. | true | 2024-12-31 | Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-06-01 | 2020-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-23", 0.6], ["2020-08-23", 0.515], ["2020-08-23", 0.585], ["2020-08-23", 0.585], ["2020-08-23", 0.64], ["2020-08-24", 0.65], ["2020-08-24", 0.696], ["2020-08-24", 0.69], ["2020-08-25", 0.627], ["2020-08-25", 0.627], ["2020-08-26", 0.62], ["2020-08-27", 0.624], ["2020-08-28", 0.627], ["2020-08-28", 0.638], ["2020-08-28", 0.652], ["2020-08-29", 0.652], ["2020-08-29", 0.652], ["2020-08-31", 0.637], ["2020-08-31", 0.637], ["2020-09-09", 0.636], ["2020-09-12", 0.639], ["2020-09-12", 0.641], ["2020-09-12", 0.641], ["2020-09-12", 0.641], ["2020-09-13", 0.645], ["2020-09-13", 0.644], ["2020-09-13", 0.644], ["2020-09-13", 0.648], ["2020-09-13", 0.668], ["2020-09-13", 0.668], ["2020-09-13", 0.677], ["2020-09-13", 0.675], ["2020-09-13", 0.674], ["2020-09-14", 0.682], ["2020-09-16", 0.682], ["2020-09-17", 0.683], ["2020-09-18", 0.684], ["2020-09-18", 0.684], ["2020-09-24", 0.699], ["2020-09-25", 0.701], ["2020-09-25", 0.697], ["2020-09-27", 0.697], ["2020-09-27", 0.696], ["2020-09-28", 0.695], ["2020-09-29", 0.691], ["2020-09-30", 0.691], ["2020-10-03", 0.7], ["2020-10-09", 0.715], ["2020-10-10", 0.715], ["2020-10-16", 0.717], ["2020-10-18", 0.719], ["2020-10-18", 0.72], ["2020-10-23", 0.718], ["2020-10-23", 0.718], ["2020-10-23", 0.712], ["2020-10-23", 0.711], ["2020-10-24", 0.72], ["2020-10-25", 0.723], ["2020-10-25", 0.725], ["2020-10-25", 0.726], ["2020-10-25", 0.731], ["2020-10-26", 0.734], ["2020-10-27", 0.734], ["2020-10-27", 0.735], ["2020-10-27", 0.734], ["2020-10-28", 0.732], ["2020-10-28", 0.734], ["2020-10-28", 0.734], ["2020-10-30", 0.734], ["2020-10-31", 0.734], ["2020-11-01", 0.739], ["2020-11-01", 0.74], ["2020-11-01", 0.74], ["2020-11-01", 0.743], ["2020-11-01", 0.741], ["2020-11-01", 0.741], ["2020-11-01", 0.745], ["2020-11-01", 0.749], ["2020-11-02", 0.749], ["2020-11-02", 0.751], ["2020-11-02", 0.752], ["2020-11-02", 0.755], ["2020-11-02", 0.756], ["2020-11-02", 0.755], ["2020-11-02", 0.754], ["2020-11-02", 0.754], ["2020-11-02", 0.755], ["2020-11-02", 0.759], ["2020-11-02", 0.76], ["2020-11-02", 0.76], ["2020-11-02", 0.761], ["2020-11-02", 0.761], ["2020-11-02", 0.76], ["2020-11-02", 0.756], ["2020-11-03", 0.76]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5112/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | From the BBC,
Uber and Lyft have been granted a reprieve in a row over drivers' employment rights in California after a court granted an emergency injunction.
The ride-hailing firms had threatened to suspend operations over an earlier ruling that they must classify drivers as employees, not contractors. But the reprieve allows them to continue operating while the court considers their case for appeal.
The court's decision came just hours before Lyft was due to halt rides. The court has ordered Uber and Lyft to both submit their plans for hiring employees by early September, and oral arguments in the case are set for mid-October. Lyft was due to stop its services in California at 23:59 local time on Thursday (06:59 GMT on Friday). [...]
[Uber and Lyft] have always argued their drivers are self-employed contractors.
But a California law that came into effect earlier this year, known as AB5, extended employee classification to workers in the "gig economy". The judge's ruling that the law applied to both Uber and Lyft means the firms need to provide drivers with extra benefits, such as unemployment protection.
Both companies filed an appeal to the judgement - and asked for a stay on its enforcement while the courts dealt with the appeal. Unless the stay was granted, both companies had 10 days to undertake what they saw as a significant overhaul of their business in California.
They both warned that they could be forced to pull services from the state at the end of the day on Thursday. [...]
There is a potential way out for the ride-sharing firms in the coming months.
A ballot that will be put to vote in November, at the same time as the US presidential election, would grant Uber and Lyft an exemption from the law. It is known as proposition 22. "Your voice can help," Lyft wrote in its blog post about suspending services.
"Prop 22, proposes the necessary changes to give drivers benefits and flexibility, while maintaining the rideshare model that helps you get where you need to go," it said.
This question resolves positively if both Uber and Lyft are operating in California on June 1st 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
For the sake of this question, "operating in California" is taken to mean that, in at least one city, general consumers can receive Uber and Lyft rides.
Determination is made via credible media reports. | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-09-30 | 2020-08-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-27", 0.7], ["2020-08-28", 0.703], ["2020-08-29", 0.663], ["2020-08-30", 0.729], ["2020-08-31", 0.748], ["2020-08-31", 0.755], ["2020-09-01", 0.747], ["2020-09-05", 0.733], ["2020-09-11", 0.733], ["2020-09-12", 0.735], ["2020-09-24", 0.732], ["2020-09-25", 0.726], ["2020-09-26", 0.726], ["2020-09-27", 0.721], ["2020-09-28", 0.729], ["2020-09-29", 0.729], ["2020-10-02", 0.726], ["2020-10-04", 0.726], ["2020-10-05", 0.722], ["2020-10-07", 0.718], ["2020-10-08", 0.718], ["2020-10-09", 0.717], ["2020-10-10", 0.719], ["2020-10-11", 0.716], ["2020-10-13", 0.716], ["2020-10-17", 0.716], ["2020-10-17", 0.713], ["2020-10-19", 0.713], ["2020-10-21", 0.713], ["2020-10-22", 0.713], ["2020-10-23", 0.713], ["2020-10-24", 0.713], ["2020-10-28", 0.713], ["2020-11-02", 0.718], ["2020-11-02", 0.718], ["2020-11-03", 0.713], ["2020-11-03", 0.713], ["2020-11-06", 0.713], ["2020-11-07", 0.716], ["2020-11-10", 0.715], ["2020-11-12", 0.715], ["2020-11-16", 0.721], ["2020-11-16", 0.721], ["2020-11-19", 0.721], ["2020-11-23", 0.721], ["2020-11-24", 0.729], ["2020-11-29", 0.729], ["2020-12-05", 0.728], ["2020-12-12", 0.732], ["2020-12-20", 0.736], ["2020-12-21", 0.736], ["2020-12-23", 0.739], ["2020-12-25", 0.74], ["2020-12-26", 0.735], ["2020-12-27", 0.733], ["2021-01-03", 0.733], ["2021-01-04", 0.734], ["2021-01-23", 0.729], ["2021-01-24", 0.727], ["2021-01-27", 0.727], ["2021-01-27", 0.727], ["2021-01-29", 0.724], ["2021-01-31", 0.71], ["2021-02-01", 0.712], ["2021-02-01", 0.715], ["2021-02-09", 0.713], ["2021-02-11", 0.711], ["2021-02-19", 0.713], ["2021-02-20", 0.711], ["2021-02-22", 0.713], ["2021-02-23", 0.713], ["2021-02-24", 0.713], ["2021-02-25", 0.713], ["2021-02-26", 0.712], ["2021-02-26", 0.71], ["2021-03-05", 0.712], ["2021-03-07", 0.713], ["2021-03-08", 0.715], ["2021-03-09", 0.716], ["2021-03-22", 0.714], ["2021-03-22", 0.714], ["2021-03-27", 0.716], ["2021-04-01", 0.716], ["2021-04-06", 0.718], ["2021-04-07", 0.72], ["2021-04-10", 0.72], ["2021-04-12", 0.72], ["2021-04-15", 0.721], ["2021-04-16", 0.731], ["2021-04-19", 0.731], ["2021-04-20", 0.729], ["2021-04-22", 0.732], ["2021-04-23", 0.732], ["2021-04-24", 0.737], ["2021-04-24", 0.742], ["2021-04-26", 0.743], ["2021-04-27", 0.744], ["2021-04-28", 0.744], ["2021-04-30", 0.745], ["2021-05-01", 0.76], ["2021-05-02", 0.779]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5138/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.
The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an alternative online-only version.
Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:
A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the WSOP.com website.
A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.)
As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the "WSOP 2021 Main Event" on WSOP.com website.
The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants).
This question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.
Note that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated "Main Event" is played live. | true | 2021-05-02 | Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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Proposition 22 is a ballot initiative that would override AB 5 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, not employees. DoorDash, Lyft, Uber, Instacart, and Postmates have provided $110M in campaign funding for Proposition 22. The stipulations can be found here. Proposition 22 is scheduled to be voted on on November 3, 2020.
Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?
Resolution:
This question will resolve according to the result reported by ballotpedia.org.
This question resolves positively if Proposition 22 is passed anytime before March 1, 2021.
It resolves negatively if Proposition 22 is not passed before March 1, 2021. This includes if the vote is canceled, if it is postponed to a date before March 31, 2021 and then does not pass, or if it is postponed to a date after March 31, 2021. | true | 2020-11-02 | Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors? | metaculus | 1 |
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The postponement of games was echoed across American professional sport, with the WNBA, MLB, and MLS following suit. It is just over 4 years since Colin Kaepernick first took the knee before an NFL game, also in protest at racial injustice in the United States.
The postponed games have not yet been re-scheduled, and there is talk of cancelling the season altogether.
This question asks:
Will the 2020 NBA playoffs finish as planned?
"As planned" is taken in this context to mean that each of the 15 playoff series detailed in this bracket is played as a best of 7. If the official bracket is changed such that it consists of less than 15 playoff series, or if any of the playoff series ends without a team achieving 4 wins, this question resolves negatively. In the case of games being cancelled, the stated reason for the cancellation of any remaining games has no bearing on resolution. | true | 2020-09-29 | [Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-11-19 | 2020-08-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-08-30", 0.5], ["2020-09-02", 0.204], ["2020-09-04", 0.197], ["2020-09-06", 0.198], ["2020-09-08", 0.197], ["2020-09-10", 0.202], ["2020-09-13", 0.202], ["2020-09-15", 0.201], ["2020-09-16", 0.202], ["2020-09-18", 0.199], ["2020-09-22", 0.199], ["2020-09-25", 0.208], ["2020-09-27", 0.21], ["2020-09-29", 0.202], ["2020-10-01", 0.191], ["2020-10-04", 0.19], ["2020-10-06", 0.184], ["2020-10-09", 0.184], ["2020-10-12", 0.184], ["2020-10-14", 0.184], ["2020-10-16", 0.18], ["2020-10-18", 0.18], ["2020-10-20", 0.18], ["2020-10-21", 0.18], ["2020-10-23", 0.178], ["2020-10-26", 0.178], ["2020-10-28", 0.177], ["2020-10-30", 0.176], ["2020-11-02", 0.181], ["2020-11-05", 0.179], ["2020-11-07", 0.179], ["2020-11-09", 0.178], ["2020-11-12", 0.178], ["2020-11-15", 0.179], ["2020-11-17", 0.179], ["2020-11-18", 0.18], ["2020-11-20", 0.178], ["2020-11-23", 0.182], ["2020-11-25", 0.18], ["2020-11-28", 0.18], ["2020-12-01", 0.18], ["2020-12-04", 0.18], ["2020-12-07", 0.183], ["2020-12-11", 0.183], ["2020-12-12", 0.183], ["2020-12-15", 0.183], ["2020-12-16", 0.183], ["2020-12-21", 0.183], ["2020-12-22", 0.183], ["2020-12-24", 0.184], ["2021-01-01", 0.184], ["2021-01-02", 0.184], ["2021-01-05", 0.183], ["2021-01-08", 0.181], ["2021-01-09", 0.181], ["2021-01-11", 0.181], ["2021-01-13", 0.181], ["2021-01-22", 0.181], ["2021-01-23", 0.181], ["2021-01-26", 0.182], ["2021-01-28", 0.182], ["2021-01-31", 0.183], ["2021-02-01", 0.182], ["2021-02-04", 0.178], ["2021-02-06", 0.18], ["2021-02-09", 0.18], ["2021-02-12", 0.183], ["2021-02-14", 0.182], ["2021-02-16", 0.183], ["2021-02-18", 0.183], ["2021-02-20", 0.181], ["2021-02-22", 0.183], ["2021-02-24", 0.183], ["2021-02-26", 0.183], ["2021-02-28", 0.183], ["2021-03-02", 0.182], ["2021-03-04", 0.18], ["2021-03-06", 0.18], ["2021-03-08", 0.18], ["2021-03-09", 0.18], ["2021-03-11", 0.18], ["2021-03-14", 0.18], ["2021-03-19", 0.18], ["2021-03-21", 0.183], ["2021-03-25", 0.183], ["2021-03-27", 0.183], ["2021-03-30", 0.183], ["2021-04-01", 0.182], ["2021-04-03", 0.182], ["2021-04-05", 0.181], ["2021-04-07", 0.182], ["2021-04-09", 0.182], ["2021-04-12", 0.183], ["2021-04-14", 0.184], ["2021-04-16", 0.182], ["2021-04-18", 0.185], ["2021-04-21", 0.184], ["2021-04-24", 0.184], ["2021-04-27", 0.186], ["2021-04-30", 0.196], ["2021-04-30", 0.197]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5158/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kyle Rittenhouse is, CBS news:
A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.
He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see the Wikipedia overview. One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as Daily Herald. Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides.
Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case.
Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing.
Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished.
ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively | true | 2021-04-30 | Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-12 | 2020-08-29 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-15", 0.4], ["2020-09-15", 0.64], ["2020-09-15", 0.64], ["2020-09-15", 0.538], ["2020-09-16", 0.499], ["2020-09-16", 0.538], ["2020-09-16", 0.509], ["2020-09-16", 0.509], ["2020-09-16", 0.509], ["2020-09-16", 0.505], ["2020-09-16", 0.511], ["2020-09-17", 0.51], ["2020-09-17", 0.511], ["2020-09-17", 0.517], ["2020-09-17", 0.497], ["2020-09-17", 0.498], ["2020-09-18", 0.471], ["2020-09-18", 0.467], ["2020-09-18", 0.467], ["2020-09-18", 0.473], ["2020-09-19", 0.475], ["2020-09-20", 0.475], ["2020-09-20", 0.463], ["2020-09-20", 0.461], ["2020-09-20", 0.458], ["2020-09-21", 0.458], ["2020-09-21", 0.47], ["2020-09-21", 0.472], ["2020-09-21", 0.471], ["2020-09-21", 0.472], ["2020-09-22", 0.472], ["2020-09-22", 0.485], ["2020-09-22", 0.492], ["2020-09-23", 0.492], ["2020-09-23", 0.491], ["2020-09-23", 0.489], ["2020-09-24", 0.489], ["2020-09-24", 0.478], ["2020-09-25", 0.475], ["2020-09-25", 0.474], ["2020-09-26", 0.474], ["2020-09-27", 0.471], ["2020-09-29", 0.476], ["2020-10-01", 0.477], ["2020-10-02", 0.478], ["2020-10-02", 0.478], ["2020-10-03", 0.478], ["2020-10-03", 0.479], ["2020-10-03", 0.479], ["2020-10-03", 0.479], ["2020-10-04", 0.479], ["2020-10-04", 0.48], ["2020-10-04", 0.48], ["2020-10-04", 0.48], ["2020-10-05", 0.48], ["2020-10-05", 0.486], ["2020-10-05", 0.487], ["2020-10-05", 0.487], ["2020-10-05", 0.486], ["2020-10-05", 0.486], ["2020-10-05", 0.486], ["2020-10-06", 0.485], ["2020-10-06", 0.485], ["2020-10-06", 0.485], ["2020-10-06", 0.483], ["2020-10-06", 0.48], ["2020-10-06", 0.48], ["2020-10-06", 0.48], ["2020-10-06", 0.478], ["2020-10-06", 0.478], ["2020-10-07", 0.478], ["2020-10-07", 0.477], ["2020-10-07", 0.477], ["2020-10-07", 0.477], ["2020-10-07", 0.476], ["2020-10-07", 0.476], ["2020-10-07", 0.476], ["2020-10-08", 0.476], ["2020-10-08", 0.476], ["2020-10-08", 0.476], ["2020-10-08", 0.476], ["2020-10-08", 0.476], ["2020-10-08", 0.476], ["2020-10-08", 0.476], ["2020-10-09", 0.476], ["2020-10-09", 0.476], ["2020-10-09", 0.476], ["2020-10-09", 0.473], ["2020-10-09", 0.479], ["2020-10-09", 0.479], ["2020-10-10", 0.479], ["2020-10-10", 0.477], ["2020-10-10", 0.476], ["2020-10-10", 0.475], ["2020-10-10", 0.475], ["2020-10-10", 0.473], ["2020-10-10", 0.468], ["2020-10-11", 0.468], ["2020-10-11", 0.468], ["2020-10-11", 0.468], ["2020-10-11", 0.468]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5172/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The Nobel Prize in Economics, officially known as "The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel", is a prize administered by the Nobel Foundation given to recipients who have made outstanding contributions in Economics or other Social Sciences.
As might be expected, the prize is frequently given to economists from the most prestigious, high-ranking universities, although this is not always the case.
Will the recipient(s) of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?
This question will resolve positively if the receipient of the 2020 Economics Nobel is part of any of the top eight scholastic institutions in terms of economic citations. If there are multiple recipients, all of them must be part of the top eight (but not necessarily the same institution).
The top eight institutions will be determined by the IDEAS-Repec score available as of the date of the Nobel Prize selection.
In addition to e.g. active professors, this includes individuals who are considered staff of their respective institution or have retired but still kept their connection to the institution (e.g. a professor emeritus). The recipients do not necessarily need to be part of the economics department at the institution in question.
Different departments in the same institution (e.g. the Department of Economics and the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago) will be considered one institution. That is, two groups such as "Bar, Foo" and "Baz, Foo", where Foo is some distinct university (such as MIT or University of Chicago, but not the entire UC system), should generally be combined.
Research institutions and think tanks that are part of the institution's campus but not incorporated into the university will not be included in the citations of scholastic institutions.
For clarity, the top eight scholastic institutions at publish time are:
Harvard University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
University of Chicago
University of California-Berkeley
Stanford University
London School of Economics (LSE)
New York University (NYU)
Columbia University | true | 2020-10-11 | Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-30 | 2020-08-31 | ["https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/"] | binary | [["2020-09-01", 0.83], ["2020-09-01", 0.815], ["2020-09-01", 0.78], ["2020-09-01", 0.776], ["2020-09-01", 0.772], ["2020-09-02", 0.777], ["2020-09-02", 0.777], ["2020-09-02", 0.785], ["2020-09-03", 0.785], ["2020-09-03", 0.78], ["2020-09-03", 0.782], ["2020-09-03", 0.788], ["2020-09-03", 0.788], ["2020-09-03", 0.758], ["2020-09-03", 0.802], ["2020-09-03", 0.809], ["2020-09-03", 0.809], ["2020-09-03", 0.813], ["2020-09-04", 0.803], ["2020-09-04", 0.805], ["2020-09-04", 0.805], ["2020-09-04", 0.791], ["2020-09-04", 0.801], ["2020-09-05", 0.801], ["2020-09-05", 0.803], ["2020-09-06", 0.798], ["2020-09-06", 0.804], ["2020-09-07", 0.801], ["2020-09-07", 0.792], ["2020-09-07", 0.791], ["2020-09-07", 0.796], ["2020-09-07", 0.797], ["2020-09-07", 0.797], ["2020-09-07", 0.783], ["2020-09-08", 0.736], ["2020-09-08", 0.727]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5181/ | The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, better known as "CalFire", maintains a Top 20 Most Destructive California Wildfires list. The list is accessible in the "General Information/Links" box at https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ (note that the address of the list itself changes as the list is updated).
Two active fires have already destroyed enough structures to place in the top ten on the list. The LNU Lightning Complex is currently shown in 10th place on the list with 1198 structures destroyed. The CZU Lightning Complex, while not appearing yet on the list, recently surpassed LNU and has destroyed 1361 structures, enough to rank 9th.
See also these related questions. | Environment & Energy | This question will resolve positively if the CZU Lightning Complex is ranked higher than the LNU Lightning Complex on the list when both fires have been extinguished, and negatively otherwise | true | 2020-09-08 | Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-14 | 2020-09-04 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-07", 0.35], ["2020-09-08", 0.195], ["2020-09-08", 0.248], ["2020-09-08", 0.21], ["2020-09-08", 0.21], ["2020-09-08", 0.197], ["2020-09-08", 0.192], ["2020-09-08", 0.196], ["2020-09-08", 0.187], ["2020-09-09", 0.182], ["2020-09-09", 0.191], ["2020-09-09", 0.19], ["2020-09-09", 0.186], ["2020-09-09", 0.183], ["2020-09-09", 0.202], ["2020-09-10", 0.203], ["2020-09-10", 0.192], ["2020-09-10", 0.19], ["2020-09-10", 0.181], ["2020-09-10", 0.177], ["2020-09-10", 0.177], ["2020-09-11", 0.178], ["2020-09-11", 0.179], ["2020-09-11", 0.181], ["2020-09-11", 0.179], ["2020-09-11", 0.18], ["2020-09-12", 0.188], ["2020-09-12", 0.19], ["2020-09-12", 0.19], ["2020-09-12", 0.178], ["2020-09-12", 0.177], ["2020-09-13", 0.174], ["2020-09-13", 0.173], ["2020-09-13", 0.173], ["2020-09-13", 0.172], ["2020-09-14", 0.172], ["2020-09-14", 0.176], ["2020-09-14", 0.176], ["2020-09-14", 0.172], ["2020-09-14", 0.182], ["2020-09-14", 0.178], ["2020-09-14", 0.178], ["2020-09-15", 0.176], ["2020-09-15", 0.174], ["2020-09-15", 0.172], ["2020-09-15", 0.172], ["2020-09-15", 0.171], ["2020-09-15", 0.169], ["2020-09-16", 0.169], ["2020-09-16", 0.168], ["2020-09-16", 0.167], ["2020-09-16", 0.167], ["2020-09-16", 0.166], ["2020-09-16", 0.166], ["2020-09-16", 0.17], ["2020-09-17", 0.17], ["2020-09-17", 0.172], ["2020-09-18", 0.174], ["2020-09-18", 0.174], ["2020-09-19", 0.174], ["2020-09-19", 0.174], ["2020-09-19", 0.174], ["2020-09-20", 0.177], ["2020-09-21", 0.176], ["2020-09-21", 0.176], ["2020-09-22", 0.176], ["2020-09-22", 0.174], ["2020-09-22", 0.175], ["2020-09-23", 0.174], ["2020-09-23", 0.174], ["2020-09-23", 0.171], ["2020-09-23", 0.171], ["2020-09-23", 0.169], ["2020-09-23", 0.168], ["2020-09-24", 0.168], ["2020-09-24", 0.166], ["2020-09-24", 0.166], ["2020-09-24", 0.162], ["2020-09-24", 0.162], ["2020-09-24", 0.155], ["2020-09-24", 0.15], ["2020-09-25", 0.15], ["2020-09-25", 0.149], ["2020-09-25", 0.147], ["2020-09-25", 0.147], ["2020-09-25", 0.145], ["2020-09-25", 0.144], ["2020-09-26", 0.144], ["2020-09-26", 0.143], ["2020-09-26", 0.142], ["2020-09-26", 0.142], ["2020-09-27", 0.142], ["2020-09-27", 0.141], ["2020-09-27", 0.149], ["2020-09-27", 0.148], ["2020-09-28", 0.15], ["2020-09-28", 0.15], ["2020-09-28", 0.15], ["2020-09-28", 0.149], ["2020-09-28", 0.149], ["2020-09-28", 0.151]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5202/ | According to the New York Times,
President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.
The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace. Mr. Wallace received high marks for his debut debate in 2016 and is known for his sharp interviewing style.
Joe Biden, 77, is the oldest major party nominee in US history, and his opponents have claimed that he is not as mentally sharp as he once was. Indeed, a June 2020 Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that 38% of likely U.S. voters think Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. This has led some to question whether the debates between Trump and Biden could be a turning point in the election campaign.
Trump currently (September 4) trails Biden in the 538 polling average by 7.4%; Biden has 50.4% in the polling average, and Trump is on 43%.
Politico reports that Trump's advisers are watching Biden closely and "studying Biden’s idiosyncrasies to identify ways to trip him up on the debate stage." | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, Biden's polling average as reported by 538 must drop by at least five full percentage points relative to the number reported as of 00:00 on September 29, the day the first debate is to take place, before 00:00 on October 14, both dates in Eastern Time.
For example, if Biden has 48.5% in the polling average on September 29, he must drop to 43.5% or lower before October 14 for a positive resolution.
Note that this question does not ask if Biden will finish that period with a 5-point drop in the polls; it resolves positively if Biden ever drops 5 points or more between September 29 and October 14, even if he recovers before October 14.
Fine Print
This question is conditional on the first debate between Trump and Biden actually taking place. If it does not, the question resolves ambiguously. The question also resolves ambiguously if 538 fails to report a polling average figure over the relevant time period. | true | 2020-09-28 | Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-11-02 | 2020-09-08 | ["https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/resultater"] | binary | [["2020-09-16", 0.5], ["2020-09-17", 0.465], ["2020-09-18", 0.465], ["2020-09-18", 0.34], ["2020-09-19", 0.31], ["2020-09-19", 0.25], ["2020-09-19", 0.25], ["2020-09-20", 0.293], ["2020-09-22", 0.293], ["2020-09-26", 0.341], ["2020-09-27", 0.33], ["2020-09-28", 0.33], ["2020-09-28", 0.327], ["2020-10-01", 0.311], ["2020-10-02", 0.311], ["2020-10-10", 0.318], ["2020-10-14", 0.294], ["2020-10-19", 0.287], ["2020-10-20", 0.284], ["2020-11-17", 0.281], ["2020-11-18", 0.281], ["2020-12-05", 0.279], ["2021-01-03", 0.279], ["2021-01-04", 0.273], ["2021-01-10", 0.273], ["2021-01-13", 0.264], ["2021-01-13", 0.263], ["2021-01-24", 0.263], ["2021-01-25", 0.263], ["2021-01-25", 0.263], ["2021-02-07", 0.263], ["2021-02-08", 0.252], ["2021-02-08", 0.25], ["2021-02-12", 0.257], ["2021-02-15", 0.251], ["2021-02-25", 0.251], ["2021-02-25", 0.26], ["2021-02-26", 0.262], ["2021-03-12", 0.262], ["2021-03-12", 0.265], ["2021-03-26", 0.26], ["2021-04-04", 0.261], ["2021-04-04", 0.268], ["2021-04-05", 0.269], ["2021-04-05", 0.268], ["2021-04-06", 0.268], ["2021-04-06", 0.268], ["2021-04-07", 0.273], ["2021-04-07", 0.274], ["2021-04-09", 0.276], ["2021-04-12", 0.276], ["2021-05-30", 0.276], ["2021-06-19", 0.276], ["2021-07-08", 0.269], ["2021-10-07", 0.268], ["2021-10-13", 0.269], ["2021-10-23", 0.269], ["2021-10-30", 0.28], ["2021-12-15", 0.281], ["2021-12-15", 0.28], ["2021-12-16", 0.279], ["2021-12-18", 0.279], ["2021-12-18", 0.272], ["2021-12-19", 0.278], ["2021-12-19", 0.279], ["2021-12-19", 0.278], ["2021-12-20", 0.265], ["2021-12-20", 0.266], ["2021-12-22", 0.264], ["2021-12-22", 0.264], ["2021-12-30", 0.259], ["2022-01-04", 0.257], ["2022-02-14", 0.257], ["2022-02-15", 0.256], ["2022-02-24", 0.255], ["2022-02-25", 0.255], ["2022-02-28", 0.252], ["2022-03-07", 0.252], ["2022-04-03", 0.249], ["2022-04-04", 0.243], ["2022-04-21", 0.242], ["2022-04-22", 0.24], ["2022-04-24", 0.239], ["2022-04-25", 0.239], ["2022-05-11", 0.239], ["2022-05-19", 0.241], ["2022-05-20", 0.242], ["2022-05-20", 0.241], ["2022-05-24", 0.24], ["2022-06-11", 0.24], ["2022-06-14", 0.241], ["2022-06-15", 0.238], ["2022-06-19", 0.238], ["2022-06-19", 0.23], ["2022-06-20", 0.23], ["2022-06-20", 0.225], ["2022-06-21", 0.225], ["2022-07-15", 0.225], ["2022-08-21", 0.222], ["2022-08-25", 0.215], ["2022-10-16", 0.215]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5217/ | Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique, a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of The Alternative (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by Uffe Elbæk, who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is currently a member of the Danish parliament, following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.
Polls for Denmark can be found on Wikipedia and Politico. As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% election threshold. | Politics & Governance | If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election (in 2023 or before), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.
If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question | true | 2023-06-04 | Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-30 | 2020-09-10 | ["http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2012.02.015)"] | binary | [["2020-09-23", 0.62], ["2020-09-23", 0.52], ["2020-09-26", 0.513], ["2020-09-26", 0.476], ["2020-09-28", 0.483], ["2020-10-02", 0.486], ["2020-10-02", 0.486], ["2020-10-02", 0.495], ["2020-10-09", 0.493], ["2020-10-10", 0.489], ["2020-10-10", 0.489], ["2020-11-05", 0.491], ["2020-12-05", 0.491]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5219/ | There have been many retractions of scientific papers concerning controversial topics in recent times. For instance, earlier this year, Cory Clark et al retracted a much discussed paper (Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime—but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ). Similarly, Hans Eysenck has in recent years been facing numerous retraction requests concerning his work with Ronald Grossarth-Maticek on personality and health. Finally, very recently, a paper by Phil Rushton was retracted, Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals?:
This article (Rushton, J. P., & Templer, D. I. (2012). Do pigmentation and the melanocortin system modulate aggression and sexuality in humans as they do in other animals? Personality and Individual Differences, 53(1), 4–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2012.02.015) has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief and the majority of Senior Associate Editors of Personality and Individual Differences and in consultation with the Executive Officers and Board of Directors of the International Society for the Study of Individual Differences (ISSID).
The reasons given for the retraction were as follows:
(1) Rushton & Templer drew on a review paper in an Ecology journal (Ducrest et al., 2008) which argues that genetic variants which influence skin colour may also influence aggression, sexual activity and resistance to stress – mainly based on birds and fish. The correspondent and geneticist each comment that the genes responsible for skin pigmentation in humans are completely different to the genes in these animals. It therefore makes no sense to extrapolate from these animal studies to humans. Ducrest et al. made this crystal clear: “human populations are therefore not expected to consistently exhibit the associations between melanin-based coloration and the physiological and behavioural traits reported in our study”. As the geneticist observes, “the point about genetic variants for skin pigmentation being different in humans makes all the other vertebrate work cited inconsequential”.
(2) Rushton & Templer claimed that there are black/white (human) differences in levels of psychopathy. As required of a review paper, the authors should have been aware of a literature showing that black-white differences in the best-available measure of psychopathy are negligible (Skeem et al., 2004). They instead relied on an analysis by Lynn (2002) which has been extensively criticized (Skeem, Edens, Sanford, & Colwell, 2003; Zuckerman, 2003).
(3) Rushton & Templer ignored obvious social and educational explanations for higher levels of violence, HIV infection etc. in African and Caribbean countries whilst favouring a genetic theory.
(4) Rushton & Templer made several errors when interpreting the results summarised by Ducrest et al. Although relatively minor, these errors consistently favoured their genetic thesis.
A detailed writeup of the problems with the paper is available here.
Both authors of this paper are deceased (as is Hans Eysenck), so could not address the concerns raised about their work. This question asks: | Science & Tech | If any additional paper authored by Rushton is officially retracted before 2022, this question resolves positively.
Rushton can be any author on the paper, first, middle, or last | true | 2022-12-31 | Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-14 | 2020-09-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-17", 0.02], ["2020-09-17", 0.047], ["2020-09-17", 0.048], ["2020-09-17", 0.048], ["2020-09-17", 0.052], ["2020-09-17", 0.057], ["2020-09-18", 0.056], ["2020-09-18", 0.063], ["2020-09-18", 0.072], ["2020-09-18", 0.097], ["2020-09-18", 0.098], ["2020-09-18", 0.098], ["2020-09-18", 0.115], ["2020-09-18", 0.126], ["2020-09-18", 0.126], ["2020-09-19", 0.126], ["2020-09-19", 0.132], ["2020-09-19", 0.132], ["2020-09-19", 0.135], ["2020-09-19", 0.128], ["2020-09-19", 0.128], ["2020-09-19", 0.131], ["2020-09-19", 0.127], ["2020-09-20", 0.125], ["2020-09-20", 0.13], ["2020-09-20", 0.127], ["2020-09-20", 0.126], ["2020-09-20", 0.123], ["2020-09-20", 0.122], ["2020-09-21", 0.12], ["2020-09-21", 0.12], ["2020-09-21", 0.115], ["2020-09-21", 0.115], ["2020-09-21", 0.114], ["2020-09-22", 0.117], ["2020-09-22", 0.117], ["2020-09-22", 0.115], ["2020-09-22", 0.112], ["2020-09-22", 0.112], ["2020-09-23", 0.117], ["2020-09-23", 0.112], ["2020-09-23", 0.108], ["2020-09-23", 0.106], ["2020-09-23", 0.104], ["2020-09-23", 0.103], ["2020-09-23", 0.099], ["2020-09-23", 0.097], ["2020-09-23", 0.099], ["2020-09-23", 0.098], ["2020-09-23", 0.096], ["2020-09-23", 0.094], ["2020-09-23", 0.093], ["2020-09-24", 0.096], ["2020-09-24", 0.097], ["2020-09-24", 0.095], ["2020-09-24", 0.113], ["2020-09-24", 0.113], ["2020-09-24", 0.112], ["2020-09-24", 0.111], ["2020-09-24", 0.112], ["2020-09-24", 0.112], ["2020-09-24", 0.112], ["2020-09-24", 0.112], ["2020-09-25", 0.113], ["2020-09-25", 0.113], ["2020-09-25", 0.109], ["2020-09-25", 0.109], ["2020-09-25", 0.108], ["2020-09-25", 0.11], ["2020-09-25", 0.108], ["2020-09-25", 0.108], ["2020-09-25", 0.111], ["2020-09-26", 0.112], ["2020-09-26", 0.111], ["2020-09-26", 0.113], ["2020-09-26", 0.113], ["2020-09-26", 0.113], ["2020-09-26", 0.112], ["2020-09-26", 0.112], ["2020-09-26", 0.113], ["2020-09-26", 0.114], ["2020-09-27", 0.114], ["2020-09-27", 0.115], ["2020-09-27", 0.115], ["2020-09-27", 0.114], ["2020-09-27", 0.114], ["2020-09-27", 0.122], ["2020-09-27", 0.122], ["2020-09-27", 0.127], ["2020-09-27", 0.128], ["2020-09-28", 0.135], ["2020-09-28", 0.137], ["2020-09-28", 0.137], ["2020-09-28", 0.136], ["2020-09-28", 0.139], ["2020-09-28", 0.139], ["2020-09-28", 0.141], ["2020-09-28", 0.141], ["2020-09-28", 0.144], ["2020-09-28", 0.144], ["2020-09-28", 0.146]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5256/ | According to the New York Times,
President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.
The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace. Mr. Wallace received high marks for his debut debate in 2016 and is known for his sharp interviewing style.
Trump currently (September 14) trails Biden in the 538 polling average by 7.2%; Biden has 50.7% in the polling average, and Trump is on 43.5%. | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, Trump's polling average as reported by 538 must drop by at least five full percentage points relative to the number reported as of 00:00 on September 29, the day the first debate is to take place, before 00:00 on October 14, both dates in Eastern Time.
For example, if Trump has 43.5% in the polling average on September 29, he must drop to 38.5% or lower before October 14 for a positive resolution.
Note that this question does not ask if Trump will finish that period with a 5-point drop in the polls; it resolves positively if Trump ever drops 5 points or more between September 29 and October 14, even if he recovers before October 14.
Fine Print
This question is conditional on the first debate between Trump and Biden actually taking place. If it does not, the question resolves ambiguously. The question also resolves ambiguously if 538 fails to report a polling average figure over the relevant time period.
This question was largely copied from the parallel question about Biden created by user Jgalt. | true | 2020-09-28 | Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate? | metaculus | 0 |
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Many prominent Republicans and former staff of the Bush administration have endorsed Joe Biden for president in 2020. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Governor of Ohio John Kasich have both endorsed Biden and spoke at the Democratic National Convention in August 2020. Over 200 former Bush staffers have formed a political action committee (PAC) called 43 Alumni for Biden to support Biden’s presidential campaign.
George W. Bush has said that he does not plan to endorse a candidate for president in 2020. A Bush spokesman told The Hill last month that “We've been quite clear and consistent - President Bush is retired from presidential politics and will not be weighing in.” | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if George W. Bush makes a public statement saying that he plans to vote for Joe Biden for president in the November 2020 election or encourages others to do so, or that his desired outcome for the 2020 U.S. presidential election is that Joe Biden is elected president. This question will resolve negatively if he does not make such a statement.
In the event that President Bush announces that he does not plan to vote for Donald Trump, but never endorses Biden as described above, this question will resolve negatively.
In the event that a secret recording or personal communication of President Bush privately saying that he supports Joe Biden in the presidential election is made publicly available before he has made a public endorsement, this question will resolve ambiguously | true | 2020-11-02 | Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-27 | 2020-09-22 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-25", 0.855], ["2020-09-25", 0.762], ["2020-09-25", 0.713], ["2020-09-25", 0.737], ["2020-09-25", 0.706], ["2020-09-25", 0.706], ["2020-09-26", 0.745], ["2020-09-26", 0.745], ["2020-09-26", 0.762], ["2020-09-26", 0.761], ["2020-09-26", 0.776], ["2020-09-27", 0.794], ["2020-09-27", 0.797], ["2020-09-27", 0.803], ["2020-09-27", 0.812], ["2020-09-27", 0.814], ["2020-09-27", 0.819], ["2020-09-28", 0.82], ["2020-09-28", 0.818], ["2020-09-28", 0.817], ["2020-09-28", 0.817], ["2020-09-28", 0.821], ["2020-09-29", 0.82], ["2020-09-29", 0.82], ["2020-09-29", 0.82], ["2020-09-29", 0.82], ["2020-09-29", 0.82], ["2020-09-30", 0.82], ["2020-09-30", 0.821], ["2020-09-30", 0.822], ["2020-09-30", 0.822], ["2020-09-30", 0.821], ["2020-10-01", 0.821], ["2020-10-01", 0.821], ["2020-10-01", 0.821], ["2020-10-01", 0.82], ["2020-10-02", 0.82], ["2020-10-02", 0.818], ["2020-10-02", 0.805], ["2020-10-02", 0.782], ["2020-10-03", 0.757], ["2020-10-03", 0.742], ["2020-10-03", 0.741], ["2020-10-03", 0.735], ["2020-10-03", 0.733], ["2020-10-03", 0.73], ["2020-10-04", 0.726], ["2020-10-04", 0.726], ["2020-10-04", 0.724], ["2020-10-04", 0.723], ["2020-10-04", 0.718], ["2020-10-04", 0.716], ["2020-10-05", 0.715], ["2020-10-05", 0.717], ["2020-10-05", 0.717], ["2020-10-05", 0.711], ["2020-10-05", 0.712], ["2020-10-05", 0.712], ["2020-10-06", 0.709], ["2020-10-06", 0.713], ["2020-10-06", 0.714], ["2020-10-06", 0.718], ["2020-10-06", 0.719], ["2020-10-07", 0.718], ["2020-10-07", 0.719], ["2020-10-07", 0.72], ["2020-10-07", 0.721], ["2020-10-07", 0.721], ["2020-10-08", 0.721], ["2020-10-08", 0.719], ["2020-10-08", 0.719], ["2020-10-08", 0.72], ["2020-10-09", 0.72], ["2020-10-09", 0.72], ["2020-10-09", 0.719], ["2020-10-09", 0.719], ["2020-10-09", 0.719], ["2020-10-09", 0.719], ["2020-10-10", 0.72], ["2020-10-10", 0.719], ["2020-10-10", 0.72], ["2020-10-10", 0.72], ["2020-10-10", 0.719], ["2020-10-11", 0.719], ["2020-10-11", 0.719], ["2020-10-11", 0.719], ["2020-10-11", 0.72], ["2020-10-12", 0.721], ["2020-10-12", 0.721], ["2020-10-12", 0.721], ["2020-10-12", 0.724], ["2020-10-13", 0.725], ["2020-10-13", 0.73], ["2020-10-13", 0.73], ["2020-10-13", 0.734], ["2020-10-13", 0.752], ["2020-10-14", 0.77], ["2020-10-14", 0.776], ["2020-10-14", 0.788], ["2020-10-14", 0.801], ["2020-10-14", 0.8]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5298/ | Amy Vivian Coney Barrett (born January 28, 1972) is an American lawyer, jurist, and academic who serves as a circuit judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. Barrett considers herself a public-meaning originalist; her judicial philosophy has been likened to that of her mentor and former boss, Antonin Scalia. Barrett's scholarship focuses on originalism.
Barrett was nominated to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals by President Donald Trump on May 8, 2017 and confirmed by the Senate on October 31, 2017. While serving on the federal bench, she is a professor of law at Notre Dame Law School, where she has taught civil procedure, constitutional law, and statutory interpretation.
Shortly after her confirmation to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals in 2017, Barrett was added to Trump's list of potential Supreme Court nominees.
As of September 22 2020, Barrett is considered to be one of the top contenders for a Supreme Court nomination, to fill the vacancy that arose following the death of Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18 2020. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern on November 3 2020 (election day). It resolves negatively if this does not happen | true | 2020-10-14 | [Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-09-28 | 2020-09-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-09-30", 0.53], ["2020-10-01", 0.527], ["2020-10-02", 0.507], ["2020-10-03", 0.548], ["2020-10-04", 0.536], ["2020-10-05", 0.512], ["2020-10-09", 0.512], ["2020-10-10", 0.517], ["2020-10-14", 0.536], ["2020-10-14", 0.536], ["2020-10-15", 0.54], ["2020-10-17", 0.532], ["2020-10-18", 0.531], ["2020-11-09", 0.531], ["2020-11-10", 0.518], ["2020-11-18", 0.518], ["2020-11-18", 0.517], ["2020-11-20", 0.517], ["2020-12-08", 0.532], ["2020-12-08", 0.531], ["2020-12-20", 0.529], ["2020-12-20", 0.533], ["2020-12-23", 0.536], ["2021-01-03", 0.536], ["2021-01-04", 0.536], ["2021-01-09", 0.534], ["2021-01-12", 0.534], ["2021-01-12", 0.536], ["2021-01-15", 0.531], ["2021-02-06", 0.529], ["2021-02-09", 0.529], ["2021-02-10", 0.529], ["2021-02-18", 0.529], ["2021-02-22", 0.53], ["2021-02-23", 0.53], ["2021-02-28", 0.53], ["2021-03-04", 0.53], ["2021-03-08", 0.528], ["2021-03-22", 0.528], ["2021-04-07", 0.528], ["2021-04-10", 0.528], ["2021-04-26", 0.528], ["2021-04-27", 0.536], ["2021-05-01", 0.537], ["2021-05-07", 0.534], ["2021-05-07", 0.53], ["2021-05-10", 0.531], ["2021-05-12", 0.514], ["2021-05-16", 0.513], ["2021-05-16", 0.519], ["2021-05-23", 0.519], ["2021-06-02", 0.518], ["2021-06-06", 0.518], ["2021-06-07", 0.535], ["2021-06-08", 0.532], ["2021-06-09", 0.541], ["2021-06-10", 0.539], ["2021-06-18", 0.539], ["2021-06-18", 0.539], ["2021-06-29", 0.54], ["2021-07-05", 0.54], ["2021-07-07", 0.54], ["2021-07-08", 0.54], ["2021-07-11", 0.54], ["2021-07-13", 0.539], ["2021-07-15", 0.539], ["2021-07-20", 0.539], ["2021-07-20", 0.539], ["2021-07-22", 0.539], ["2021-07-22", 0.54], ["2021-07-25", 0.538], ["2021-07-25", 0.536], ["2021-08-05", 0.534], ["2021-08-07", 0.534], ["2021-08-10", 0.534], ["2021-08-11", 0.535], ["2021-08-19", 0.536], ["2021-08-20", 0.536], ["2021-08-22", 0.535], ["2021-08-26", 0.535], ["2021-09-01", 0.538], ["2021-09-01", 0.535], ["2021-09-03", 0.531], ["2021-09-04", 0.53], ["2021-09-06", 0.529], ["2021-09-07", 0.531], ["2021-09-09", 0.524], ["2021-09-09", 0.52], ["2021-09-10", 0.518], ["2021-09-12", 0.517], ["2021-09-13", 0.517], ["2021-09-14", 0.517], ["2021-09-15", 0.519], ["2021-09-16", 0.518], ["2021-09-17", 0.514], ["2021-09-18", 0.513], ["2021-09-19", 0.511], ["2021-09-21", 0.511], ["2021-09-22", 0.512], ["2021-09-24", 0.497], ["2021-09-24", 0.491]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5311/ | Petrov Day is the yearly anniversary of the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.
One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in, with a big red button with much lower stakes:
And you can also play on hard mode: "During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak."
Lesswrong has hosted an event along these lines in 2019 and in 2020. In 2019, 125 users were given "launch codes" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site was not took down in 2019, and was took down in 2020. | Security & Defense | If the site lesswrong.com hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously | true | 2021-09-24 | If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-10-03 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5343/trum\u2026"] | binary | [["2020-10-03", 0.175], ["2020-10-03", 0.188], ["2020-10-04", 0.184], ["2020-10-04", 0.204], ["2020-10-04", 0.202], ["2020-10-04", 0.194], ["2020-10-04", 0.191], ["2020-10-04", 0.19], ["2020-10-04", 0.189], ["2020-10-05", 0.187], ["2020-10-05", 0.192], ["2020-10-05", 0.192], ["2020-10-05", 0.192], ["2020-10-05", 0.169], ["2020-10-06", 0.155], ["2020-10-06", 0.147], ["2020-10-06", 0.147], ["2020-10-06", 0.141], ["2020-10-06", 0.137], ["2020-10-06", 0.138], ["2020-10-07", 0.135], ["2020-10-07", 0.134], ["2020-10-07", 0.134], ["2020-10-07", 0.133], ["2020-10-07", 0.133], ["2020-10-08", 0.128], ["2020-10-08", 0.126], ["2020-10-08", 0.126], ["2020-10-08", 0.122], ["2020-10-08", 0.116], ["2020-10-09", 0.116], ["2020-10-09", 0.112], ["2020-10-09", 0.11], ["2020-10-09", 0.107], ["2020-10-09", 0.107], ["2020-10-10", 0.106], ["2020-10-10", 0.104], ["2020-10-10", 0.104], ["2020-10-10", 0.102], ["2020-10-10", 0.102], ["2020-10-10", 0.101], ["2020-10-11", 0.101], ["2020-10-11", 0.101], ["2020-10-11", 0.101], ["2020-10-12", 0.101], ["2020-10-12", 0.099], ["2020-10-12", 0.099], ["2020-10-12", 0.097], ["2020-10-13", 0.095], ["2020-10-13", 0.091], ["2020-10-13", 0.091], ["2020-10-13", 0.091], ["2020-10-13", 0.089], ["2020-10-14", 0.088], ["2020-10-14", 0.088], ["2020-10-14", 0.085], ["2020-10-15", 0.083], ["2020-10-15", 0.082], ["2020-10-15", 0.082], ["2020-10-16", 0.082], ["2020-10-16", 0.082], ["2020-10-16", 0.079], ["2020-10-16", 0.079], ["2020-10-16", 0.077], ["2020-10-17", 0.077], ["2020-10-17", 0.077], ["2020-10-18", 0.076], ["2020-10-19", 0.076], ["2020-10-19", 0.076], ["2020-10-19", 0.076], ["2020-10-20", 0.076], ["2020-10-20", 0.075], ["2020-10-22", 0.075], ["2020-10-22", 0.075], ["2020-10-22", 0.075], ["2020-10-23", 0.074], ["2020-10-23", 0.074], ["2020-10-24", 0.072], ["2020-10-24", 0.071], ["2020-10-25", 0.071], ["2020-10-26", 0.071], ["2020-10-26", 0.071], ["2020-10-26", 0.07], ["2020-10-26", 0.069], ["2020-10-27", 0.068], ["2020-10-27", 0.068], ["2020-10-28", 0.067], ["2020-10-28", 0.067], ["2020-10-29", 0.066], ["2020-10-29", 0.066], ["2020-10-30", 0.066], ["2020-10-30", 0.067], ["2020-10-30", 0.067], ["2020-10-30", 0.067], ["2020-10-30", 0.067], ["2020-10-31", 0.063], ["2020-10-31", 0.061], ["2020-10-31", 0.059], ["2020-10-31", 0.058], ["2020-10-31", 0.057], ["2020-10-31", 0.056]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5342/ | Section three of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States (PDF) states the following;
Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.
On October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, President Trump was hospitalized in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president. | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, before November 3 2020 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has transferred presidential powers to Mike Pence under the terms of section three of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. A transfer under any other section of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, or any transfer of power not expressly made in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, does not count for this question.
Note that this has happened on only two prior occasions; in 2002, and again in 2007.
This question resolves positively if power is transferred for any period of time under this section, regardless of whether Trump later reclaims his powers.
Related Questions
[Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5343/trum… | true | 2020-11-01 | Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-10-03 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5342/s3-o\u2026"] | binary | [["2020-10-03", 0.03], ["2020-10-03", 0.256], ["2020-10-04", 0.206], ["2020-10-04", 0.2], ["2020-10-04", 0.193], ["2020-10-04", 0.191], ["2020-10-04", 0.19], ["2020-10-04", 0.181], ["2020-10-05", 0.18], ["2020-10-05", 0.179], ["2020-10-05", 0.176], ["2020-10-05", 0.178], ["2020-10-05", 0.175], ["2020-10-05", 0.171], ["2020-10-06", 0.166], ["2020-10-06", 0.162], ["2020-10-06", 0.156], ["2020-10-06", 0.153], ["2020-10-06", 0.15], ["2020-10-06", 0.143], ["2020-10-06", 0.145], ["2020-10-07", 0.141], ["2020-10-07", 0.141], ["2020-10-07", 0.141], ["2020-10-07", 0.14], ["2020-10-07", 0.14], ["2020-10-08", 0.142], ["2020-10-08", 0.138], ["2020-10-08", 0.138], ["2020-10-08", 0.133], ["2020-10-08", 0.128], ["2020-10-09", 0.123], ["2020-10-09", 0.122], ["2020-10-09", 0.121], ["2020-10-09", 0.118], ["2020-10-09", 0.117], ["2020-10-10", 0.117], ["2020-10-10", 0.117], ["2020-10-10", 0.116], ["2020-10-10", 0.116], ["2020-10-11", 0.115], ["2020-10-11", 0.114], ["2020-10-11", 0.114], ["2020-10-11", 0.114], ["2020-10-12", 0.114], ["2020-10-12", 0.112], ["2020-10-12", 0.112], ["2020-10-12", 0.112], ["2020-10-12", 0.111], ["2020-10-13", 0.111], ["2020-10-13", 0.11], ["2020-10-13", 0.109], ["2020-10-13", 0.109], ["2020-10-13", 0.105], ["2020-10-14", 0.105], ["2020-10-14", 0.103], ["2020-10-14", 0.103], ["2020-10-14", 0.103], ["2020-10-14", 0.1], ["2020-10-15", 0.098], ["2020-10-15", 0.097], ["2020-10-16", 0.097], ["2020-10-16", 0.095], ["2020-10-16", 0.093], ["2020-10-16", 0.093], ["2020-10-16", 0.092], ["2020-10-17", 0.092], ["2020-10-17", 0.092], ["2020-10-17", 0.091], ["2020-10-17", 0.091], ["2020-10-19", 0.091], ["2020-10-19", 0.091], ["2020-10-19", 0.091], ["2020-10-20", 0.09], ["2020-10-20", 0.09], ["2020-10-20", 0.09], ["2020-10-22", 0.09], ["2020-10-22", 0.09], ["2020-10-22", 0.09], ["2020-10-23", 0.087], ["2020-10-24", 0.087], ["2020-10-24", 0.082], ["2020-10-25", 0.082], ["2020-10-26", 0.079], ["2020-10-26", 0.078], ["2020-10-26", 0.077], ["2020-10-27", 0.077], ["2020-10-27", 0.076], ["2020-10-28", 0.076], ["2020-10-28", 0.075], ["2020-10-29", 0.074], ["2020-10-29", 0.074], ["2020-10-29", 0.073], ["2020-10-30", 0.073], ["2020-10-30", 0.072], ["2020-10-30", 0.071], ["2020-10-31", 0.063], ["2020-10-31", 0.061], ["2020-10-31", 0.058], ["2020-10-31", 0.056], ["2020-10-31", 0.053]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5343/ | Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States (PDF) states the following;
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session.
If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
On October 1, 2020, President Donald Trump tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus which causes COVID-19. On October 2, President Trump was hospitalized in Maryland. Since Trump's positive test was announced, there has been speculation that he may be incapacitated, necessitating a transfer of powers to the vice president. | Politics & Governance | For a positive resolution, before November 3 2020 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has been relieved of his duties as president and the vice president has become Acting President under the terms of section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. A removal from office of any other sort, or a transfer of power under any other section of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, or any transfer of power not expressly made in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, does not count for this question.
Note that this has never happened before, but has previously been considered.
This question resolves positively if Trump is removed from office for any period of time under this section, regardless of whether he is later reinstated as president.
Related Questions
[Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5342/s3-o… | true | 2020-11-01 | Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-10-03 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-04", 0.55], ["2020-10-04", 0.65], ["2020-10-04", 0.375], ["2020-10-04", 0.375], ["2020-10-04", 0.475], ["2020-10-04", 0.475], ["2020-10-04", 0.412], ["2020-10-04", 0.4], ["2020-10-04", 0.4], ["2020-10-04", 0.397], ["2020-10-04", 0.329], ["2020-10-04", 0.337], ["2020-10-04", 0.337], ["2020-10-04", 0.334], ["2020-10-04", 0.334], ["2020-10-04", 0.306], ["2020-10-04", 0.306], ["2020-10-04", 0.305], ["2020-10-04", 0.301], ["2020-10-04", 0.301], ["2020-10-04", 0.276], ["2020-10-05", 0.276], ["2020-10-05", 0.276], ["2020-10-05", 0.261], ["2020-10-05", 0.251], ["2020-10-05", 0.248], ["2020-10-05", 0.248], ["2020-10-05", 0.255], ["2020-10-05", 0.255], ["2020-10-05", 0.255], ["2020-10-05", 0.257], ["2020-10-05", 0.245], ["2020-10-05", 0.245], ["2020-10-05", 0.245], ["2020-10-05", 0.247], ["2020-10-05", 0.243], ["2020-10-05", 0.243], ["2020-10-05", 0.242], ["2020-10-05", 0.243], ["2020-10-05", 0.243], ["2020-10-05", 0.237], ["2020-10-05", 0.237], ["2020-10-05", 0.234], ["2020-10-05", 0.227], ["2020-10-05", 0.228], ["2020-10-05", 0.227], ["2020-10-05", 0.223], ["2020-10-05", 0.223], ["2020-10-06", 0.216], ["2020-10-06", 0.216], ["2020-10-06", 0.21], ["2020-10-06", 0.207], ["2020-10-06", 0.205], ["2020-10-06", 0.205], ["2020-10-06", 0.203], ["2020-10-06", 0.203], ["2020-10-06", 0.203], ["2020-10-06", 0.203], ["2020-10-06", 0.203], ["2020-10-06", 0.203], ["2020-10-06", 0.203], ["2020-10-06", 0.201], ["2020-10-06", 0.195], ["2020-10-06", 0.195], ["2020-10-06", 0.192], ["2020-10-06", 0.184], ["2020-10-06", 0.184], ["2020-10-06", 0.186], ["2020-10-06", 0.183], ["2020-10-06", 0.184], ["2020-10-06", 0.184], ["2020-10-06", 0.183], ["2020-10-06", 0.182], ["2020-10-06", 0.182], ["2020-10-06", 0.179], ["2020-10-06", 0.183], ["2020-10-06", 0.18], ["2020-10-06", 0.18], ["2020-10-07", 0.176], ["2020-10-07", 0.177], ["2020-10-07", 0.177], ["2020-10-07", 0.174], ["2020-10-07", 0.174], ["2020-10-07", 0.168], ["2020-10-07", 0.168], ["2020-10-07", 0.172], ["2020-10-07", 0.166], ["2020-10-07", 0.163], ["2020-10-08", 0.163], ["2020-10-08", 0.159], ["2020-10-08", 0.159], ["2020-10-08", 0.154], ["2020-10-08", 0.154], ["2020-10-08", 0.149], ["2020-10-08", 0.149], ["2020-10-08", 0.147], ["2020-10-08", 0.147], ["2020-10-08", 0.147], ["2020-10-08", 0.148], ["2020-10-08", 0.148]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5345/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Section 3 of the 25th amendment of the United States constitution states,
Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.
Section 4 states,
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Will the 25th amendment be invoked before November 3rd?
This question resolves positively if credible media report that some part of the 25th amendment of the United States constitution is invoked before November 3rd, 2020 (and after the creation of this question). | true | 2020-10-09 | Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-05-29 | 2020-10-04 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15036/2023-presidential-election-in-t%25C3%25BCrkiye/", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/28/europe/turkey-president-runoff-polls-erdogan-intl/index.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15036/2023-presidential-election-in-t%25C3%25BCrkiye/"] | binary | [["2020-10-29", 0.45], ["2020-10-29", 0.45], ["2020-10-29", 0.6], ["2020-10-30", 0.575], ["2020-10-30", 0.575], ["2020-10-30", 0.681], ["2020-10-30", 0.681], ["2020-10-31", 0.64], ["2020-10-31", 0.643], ["2020-10-31", 0.643], ["2020-11-01", 0.643], ["2020-11-02", 0.652], ["2020-11-02", 0.659], ["2020-11-03", 0.671], ["2020-11-03", 0.679], ["2020-11-03", 0.679], ["2020-11-03", 0.688], ["2020-11-03", 0.679], ["2020-11-04", 0.675], ["2020-11-04", 0.657], ["2020-11-04", 0.676], ["2020-11-04", 0.666], ["2020-11-05", 0.642], ["2020-11-05", 0.646], ["2020-11-05", 0.645], ["2020-11-05", 0.644], ["2020-11-06", 0.641], ["2020-11-08", 0.641], ["2020-11-08", 0.644], ["2020-11-09", 0.646], ["2020-11-09", 0.646], ["2020-11-10", 0.643], ["2020-11-13", 0.643], ["2020-11-18", 0.641], ["2020-11-19", 0.644], ["2020-11-20", 0.644], ["2020-12-05", 0.645], ["2021-01-01", 0.645], ["2021-01-01", 0.642], ["2021-01-06", 0.643], ["2021-01-07", 0.641], ["2021-01-13", 0.642], ["2021-01-13", 0.64], ["2021-01-13", 0.64], ["2021-01-14", 0.644], ["2021-01-14", 0.644], ["2021-01-15", 0.645], ["2021-01-16", 0.645], ["2021-01-22", 0.648], ["2021-02-02", 0.648], ["2021-02-10", 0.649], ["2021-02-10", 0.649], ["2021-03-05", 0.649], ["2021-03-17", 0.644], ["2021-03-19", 0.644], ["2021-03-19", 0.644], ["2021-03-19", 0.645], ["2021-03-20", 0.645], ["2021-03-21", 0.647], ["2021-03-21", 0.646], ["2021-03-22", 0.645], ["2021-03-22", 0.644], ["2021-03-23", 0.644], ["2021-03-23", 0.644], ["2021-03-24", 0.644], ["2021-03-24", 0.647], ["2021-03-25", 0.647], ["2021-03-28", 0.647], ["2021-03-31", 0.647], ["2021-04-01", 0.646], ["2021-04-01", 0.646], ["2021-04-04", 0.648], ["2021-04-04", 0.65], ["2021-04-05", 0.651], ["2021-04-05", 0.651], ["2021-04-05", 0.653], ["2021-04-06", 0.653], ["2021-04-07", 0.654], ["2021-04-08", 0.652], ["2021-04-09", 0.651], ["2021-04-10", 0.651], ["2021-04-11", 0.651], ["2021-04-12", 0.654], ["2021-04-14", 0.653], ["2021-04-22", 0.644], ["2021-04-25", 0.644], ["2021-04-25", 0.644], ["2021-04-27", 0.644], ["2021-04-30", 0.642], ["2021-05-13", 0.643], ["2021-05-22", 0.643], ["2021-05-23", 0.643], ["2021-05-24", 0.643], ["2021-05-28", 0.643], ["2021-05-30", 0.64], ["2021-05-30", 0.643], ["2021-05-30", 0.644], ["2021-05-31", 0.644], ["2021-05-31", 0.643], ["2021-05-31", 0.643], ["2021-05-31", 0.647]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5350/ | Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
He was last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote, and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his Vision 2023
However, his AKP party lost the municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019 suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election | Politics & Governance | Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).
Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023 | true | 2021-05-31 | Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-15 | 2020-10-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-12", 0.55], ["2020-10-12", 0.55], ["2020-10-13", 0.511], ["2020-10-13", 0.511], ["2020-10-13", 0.511], ["2020-10-13", 0.495], ["2020-10-13", 0.598], ["2020-10-13", 0.569], ["2020-10-13", 0.624], ["2020-10-13", 0.656], ["2020-10-13", 0.661], ["2020-10-13", 0.619], ["2020-10-13", 0.619], ["2020-10-13", 0.628], ["2020-10-13", 0.655], ["2020-10-13", 0.664], ["2020-10-13", 0.664], ["2020-10-13", 0.69], ["2020-10-13", 0.686], ["2020-10-13", 0.704], ["2020-10-13", 0.713], ["2020-10-13", 0.716], ["2020-10-13", 0.736], ["2020-10-13", 0.744], ["2020-10-14", 0.779], ["2020-10-14", 0.785], ["2020-10-14", 0.789], ["2020-10-14", 0.801], ["2020-10-14", 0.801], ["2020-10-14", 0.808], ["2020-10-14", 0.8], ["2020-10-14", 0.795], ["2020-10-14", 0.797], ["2020-10-14", 0.799], ["2020-10-14", 0.802], ["2020-10-14", 0.802], ["2020-10-14", 0.828], ["2020-10-14", 0.831], ["2020-10-14", 0.831], ["2020-10-14", 0.838], ["2020-10-14", 0.838], ["2020-10-14", 0.851], ["2020-10-14", 0.851], ["2020-10-14", 0.854], ["2020-10-14", 0.857], ["2020-10-14", 0.857], ["2020-10-14", 0.861], ["2020-10-14", 0.867], ["2020-10-14", 0.87], ["2020-10-14", 0.873], ["2020-10-14", 0.878], ["2020-10-14", 0.877], ["2020-10-14", 0.877], ["2020-10-14", 0.879], ["2020-10-14", 0.889], ["2020-10-14", 0.893], ["2020-10-14", 0.893], ["2020-10-14", 0.908], ["2020-10-14", 0.908], ["2020-10-14", 0.91], ["2020-10-14", 0.908], ["2020-10-15", 0.915], ["2020-10-15", 0.916], ["2020-10-15", 0.916], ["2020-10-15", 0.916]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5354/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | On the 6th of August 2020, the Government of Poland introduced three kinds of epidemic zones (or "areas" as the government website calls them). Each district's classification depends on the number of infections its has at the time. The list is based on analyses of the dynamics of infection increases in the last 14 days.
red zones - broad restrictions
yellow zones - less severe restrictions
green zones - least severe restrictions
The pandemic situation in Poland is becoming more and more serious recently with a new record of daily number of confirmed cases reported and more then 130 000 confirmed cases in total.
On Thursday the 1st of October, the capital city of Warsaw was announced by the government Ministry of Health as one of 17 districts on the list of those at risk of becoming yellow zones. At that time out of a total of 380 districts in Poland there were 17 districts with red zone status, and 34 with yellow.
Kraska also said, from the next week on, the criteria of assigning cities and counties to yellow and red zones would be tightened. (...) He added that this correction rate was unfavorable for big cities, as due to high number of residents they were much more likely to be marked yellow or red.
A week later, on Thursday the 8th of October Government announced that 38 districts are in red zone and all the rest of them inluding Warsaw are now in yellow zone.
This article which unfortunately is available only in Polish says:
On October 11, 2,392 cases of coronavirus were recorded in Warsaw in the last two weeks. Whether a given region is in the red zone is determined by the number of new coronavirus infections (12 positive tests per 10,000 inhabitants over two weeks). In the case of Warsaw, the required number is 2,132 new cases over 14 days. On Sunday there were already 2,392 of them.
Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?
For the question to resolve positively the Warsaw district (Warszawa) should be announced as red zone by the government of Poland and the change of the classification must become effective (law has to come to effect, which would mean that increased restrictions must be introduced) before October 24th Central Eastern Time (UTC +2). Typically there is a two day period between the announcement of the status change and the law coming to effect.
In case of the unlikely event that Warsaw becomes red zone and still regain its yellow or green zone status before the 24th of October this question would still be resolved positively.
The question shall be retroactively closed 12 hours before the official announcement.
This is the government website that lists current red districts (under "Obszary zakwalifikowane jako czerwone (od 10.10.2020)").
Announcements are also made by the twitter of the Ministry of Health | true | 2020-10-15 | [Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-24 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.11], ["2020-10-20", 0.678], ["2020-10-20", 0.533], ["2020-10-21", 0.56], ["2020-10-21", 0.593], ["2020-10-21", 0.588], ["2020-10-21", 0.58], ["2020-10-21", 0.608], ["2020-10-21", 0.621], ["2020-10-21", 0.627], ["2020-10-21", 0.625], ["2020-10-21", 0.625], ["2020-10-21", 0.624], ["2020-10-21", 0.619], ["2020-10-21", 0.625], ["2020-10-21", 0.625], ["2020-10-22", 0.632], ["2020-10-22", 0.617], ["2020-10-22", 0.617], ["2020-10-22", 0.613], ["2020-10-22", 0.62], ["2020-10-22", 0.62], ["2020-10-22", 0.62], ["2020-10-22", 0.62], ["2020-10-23", 0.609], ["2020-10-23", 0.609], ["2020-10-23", 0.611], ["2020-10-23", 0.616], ["2020-10-23", 0.612], ["2020-10-23", 0.626], ["2020-10-23", 0.628], ["2020-10-23", 0.619], ["2020-10-24", 0.619], ["2020-10-24", 0.627], ["2020-10-24", 0.63], ["2020-10-24", 0.624], ["2020-10-24", 0.624], ["2020-10-24", 0.617], ["2020-10-24", 0.615], ["2020-10-24", 0.615], ["2020-10-25", 0.613], ["2020-10-25", 0.615], ["2020-10-25", 0.614], ["2020-10-25", 0.606], ["2020-10-25", 0.604], ["2020-10-25", 0.603], ["2020-10-25", 0.603], ["2020-10-25", 0.604], ["2020-10-25", 0.604], ["2020-10-25", 0.611], ["2020-10-25", 0.607], ["2020-10-25", 0.608], ["2020-10-25", 0.609], ["2020-10-26", 0.609], ["2020-10-26", 0.612], ["2020-10-26", 0.612], ["2020-10-26", 0.609], ["2020-10-26", 0.61], ["2020-10-26", 0.612], ["2020-10-26", 0.612], ["2020-10-26", 0.611], ["2020-10-26", 0.612], ["2020-10-26", 0.615], ["2020-10-26", 0.613], ["2020-10-26", 0.62], ["2020-10-27", 0.621], ["2020-10-27", 0.621], ["2020-10-27", 0.621], ["2020-10-27", 0.623], ["2020-10-27", 0.623], ["2020-10-27", 0.621], ["2020-10-27", 0.619], ["2020-10-27", 0.619], ["2020-10-27", 0.613], ["2020-10-27", 0.609], ["2020-10-28", 0.607], ["2020-10-28", 0.608], ["2020-10-28", 0.613], ["2020-10-28", 0.614], ["2020-10-28", 0.614], ["2020-10-28", 0.617], ["2020-10-28", 0.616], ["2020-10-28", 0.613], ["2020-10-28", 0.613], ["2020-10-28", 0.617], ["2020-10-28", 0.616], ["2020-10-28", 0.617], ["2020-10-28", 0.621], ["2020-10-29", 0.622], ["2020-10-29", 0.631], ["2020-10-29", 0.634], ["2020-10-29", 0.634], ["2020-10-29", 0.634], ["2020-10-29", 0.634], ["2020-10-29", 0.635], ["2020-10-29", 0.635], ["2020-10-29", 0.633], ["2020-10-29", 0.631], ["2020-10-29", 0.628], ["2020-10-30", 0.627], ["2020-10-30", 0.624]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5356/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
There are growing concerns in the United States that, if he loses the elections, President Donald Trump will not concede and leave office. Trump has publicly declined to commit to accepting the election results. Previous Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has advised Democratic candidate Joe Biden that, if initial results are close, he should not concede on election night, November 3rd.
This question asks: | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if, at any time between 2020-11-03 (Election Day) and 2020-11-17, either candidate concede that he has lost the 2020 US Presidential Election. They may do this in any venue so long as it is public (e.g. a Tweet will suffice). They may do so using any phrasing (so long as it is sufficiently clear that they have accepted that they will not legally be President on 2021-01-21). This question resolves negatively on 2020-11-17 if neither candidate has done so.
To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here | true | 2020-10-30 | Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-03-01 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.05], ["2020-10-20", 0.151], ["2020-10-20", 0.151], ["2020-10-21", 0.171], ["2020-10-21", 0.163], ["2020-10-21", 0.151], ["2020-10-21", 0.168], ["2020-10-21", 0.155], ["2020-10-21", 0.171], ["2020-10-21", 0.159], ["2020-10-21", 0.163], ["2020-10-21", 0.16], ["2020-10-21", 0.161], ["2020-10-21", 0.168], ["2020-10-21", 0.166], ["2020-10-21", 0.163], ["2020-10-22", 0.169], ["2020-10-22", 0.169], ["2020-10-22", 0.175], ["2020-10-22", 0.179], ["2020-10-23", 0.179], ["2020-10-23", 0.175], ["2020-10-23", 0.166], ["2020-10-23", 0.166], ["2020-10-23", 0.181], ["2020-10-23", 0.189], ["2020-10-23", 0.189], ["2020-10-23", 0.194], ["2020-10-23", 0.207], ["2020-10-23", 0.217], ["2020-10-24", 0.224], ["2020-10-24", 0.239], ["2020-10-24", 0.239], ["2020-10-24", 0.24], ["2020-10-24", 0.24], ["2020-10-24", 0.24], ["2020-10-24", 0.245], ["2020-10-24", 0.246], ["2020-10-24", 0.265], ["2020-10-24", 0.267], ["2020-10-25", 0.266], ["2020-10-25", 0.274], ["2020-10-25", 0.274], ["2020-10-25", 0.281], ["2020-10-25", 0.276], ["2020-10-25", 0.288], ["2020-10-25", 0.288], ["2020-10-25", 0.298], ["2020-10-25", 0.302], ["2020-10-25", 0.314], ["2020-10-25", 0.314], ["2020-10-25", 0.307], ["2020-10-25", 0.31], ["2020-10-25", 0.312], ["2020-10-26", 0.309], ["2020-10-26", 0.305], ["2020-10-26", 0.301], ["2020-10-26", 0.297], ["2020-10-26", 0.295], ["2020-10-26", 0.287], ["2020-10-27", 0.287], ["2020-10-27", 0.286], ["2020-10-27", 0.286], ["2020-10-27", 0.286], ["2020-10-27", 0.289], ["2020-10-27", 0.291], ["2020-10-27", 0.289], ["2020-10-27", 0.295], ["2020-10-27", 0.292], ["2020-10-27", 0.29], ["2020-10-27", 0.287], ["2020-10-27", 0.288], ["2020-10-28", 0.288], ["2020-10-28", 0.298], ["2020-10-28", 0.298], ["2020-10-28", 0.298], ["2020-10-28", 0.298], ["2020-10-28", 0.299], ["2020-10-28", 0.299], ["2020-10-28", 0.297], ["2020-10-28", 0.302], ["2020-10-28", 0.302], ["2020-10-28", 0.307], ["2020-10-28", 0.304], ["2020-10-29", 0.305], ["2020-10-29", 0.304], ["2020-10-29", 0.304], ["2020-10-29", 0.296], ["2020-10-29", 0.293], ["2020-10-29", 0.293], ["2020-10-29", 0.293], ["2020-10-29", 0.299], ["2020-10-29", 0.299], ["2020-10-29", 0.296], ["2020-10-29", 0.298], ["2020-10-29", 0.298], ["2020-10-29", 0.299], ["2020-10-29", 0.295], ["2020-10-30", 0.292], ["2020-10-30", 0.291], ["2020-10-30", 0.296]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5357/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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On 15 September 2020, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries. The signing came after a quarter century where no such agreement had been reached between Israel and any other Arab state.
Since the signing, US president Donald Trump has suggested more Arab countries will soon normalize ties with Israel.
This question asks: | Politics & Governance | The question resolves positively if both sides issue an official statement announcing that formal ties will be established between the two countries. It resolves negatively if neither side, or only one side, has done so.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-02-28 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.5], ["2020-10-20", 0.314], ["2020-10-20", 0.338], ["2020-10-21", 0.371], ["2020-10-21", 0.355], ["2020-10-21", 0.359], ["2020-10-21", 0.359], ["2020-10-21", 0.374], ["2020-10-21", 0.362], ["2020-10-21", 0.36], ["2020-10-21", 0.358], ["2020-10-21", 0.383], ["2020-10-21", 0.383], ["2020-10-21", 0.381], ["2020-10-21", 0.37], ["2020-10-21", 0.369], ["2020-10-22", 0.373], ["2020-10-22", 0.373], ["2020-10-22", 0.382], ["2020-10-22", 0.382], ["2020-10-22", 0.387], ["2020-10-22", 0.382], ["2020-10-22", 0.382], ["2020-10-22", 0.391], ["2020-10-23", 0.393], ["2020-10-23", 0.393], ["2020-10-23", 0.417], ["2020-10-24", 0.414], ["2020-10-24", 0.414], ["2020-10-24", 0.404], ["2020-10-24", 0.404], ["2020-10-24", 0.413], ["2020-10-24", 0.412], ["2020-10-24", 0.422], ["2020-10-24", 0.422], ["2020-10-25", 0.415], ["2020-10-25", 0.415], ["2020-10-25", 0.408], ["2020-10-25", 0.407], ["2020-10-25", 0.407], ["2020-10-25", 0.407], ["2020-10-25", 0.401], ["2020-10-25", 0.401], ["2020-10-25", 0.403], ["2020-10-25", 0.399], ["2020-10-25", 0.395], ["2020-10-26", 0.396], ["2020-10-26", 0.395], ["2020-10-26", 0.394], ["2020-10-26", 0.389], ["2020-10-26", 0.386], ["2020-10-26", 0.378], ["2020-10-26", 0.373], ["2020-10-26", 0.364], ["2020-10-26", 0.364], ["2020-10-26", 0.356], ["2020-10-26", 0.363], ["2020-10-26", 0.365], ["2020-10-27", 0.365], ["2020-10-27", 0.365], ["2020-10-27", 0.365], ["2020-10-27", 0.37], ["2020-10-27", 0.37], ["2020-10-27", 0.369], ["2020-10-27", 0.376], ["2020-10-27", 0.376], ["2020-10-27", 0.371], ["2020-10-27", 0.363], ["2020-10-28", 0.363], ["2020-10-28", 0.361], ["2020-10-28", 0.357], ["2020-10-28", 0.364], ["2020-10-28", 0.364], ["2020-10-28", 0.369], ["2020-10-28", 0.369], ["2020-10-28", 0.366], ["2020-10-28", 0.367], ["2020-10-28", 0.367], ["2020-10-28", 0.362], ["2020-10-28", 0.361], ["2020-10-28", 0.363], ["2020-10-29", 0.361], ["2020-10-29", 0.361], ["2020-10-29", 0.359], ["2020-10-29", 0.36], ["2020-10-29", 0.359], ["2020-10-29", 0.358], ["2020-10-29", 0.358], ["2020-10-29", 0.358], ["2020-10-29", 0.357], ["2020-10-29", 0.355], ["2020-10-29", 0.355], ["2020-10-29", 0.355], ["2020-10-29", 0.355], ["2020-10-29", 0.355], ["2020-10-29", 0.354], ["2020-10-29", 0.353], ["2020-10-29", 0.347], ["2020-10-30", 0.348], ["2020-10-30", 0.347], ["2020-10-30", 0.35]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5358/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
As of 22 September 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting that it is tracking the development of thirty-eight SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines under clinical evaluation. There is an urgent need to determine when the first of these candidates will have been found to have a high degree of efficacy and will have been administered to a significant number of people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
This question asks: | Healthcare & Biology | This question resolves positively if by the 1st of March 2021 a credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 10 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. It resolves negatively if by this date, there is no such credible report.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-13 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.75], ["2020-10-20", 0.753], ["2020-10-20", 0.721], ["2020-10-21", 0.768], ["2020-10-21", 0.768], ["2020-10-21", 0.755], ["2020-10-21", 0.769], ["2020-10-21", 0.778], ["2020-10-21", 0.8], ["2020-10-21", 0.796], ["2020-10-21", 0.796], ["2020-10-21", 0.801], ["2020-10-21", 0.8], ["2020-10-21", 0.775], ["2020-10-21", 0.775], ["2020-10-22", 0.774], ["2020-10-22", 0.765], ["2020-10-22", 0.765], ["2020-10-22", 0.768], ["2020-10-22", 0.773], ["2020-10-22", 0.773], ["2020-10-22", 0.769], ["2020-10-22", 0.771], ["2020-10-22", 0.79], ["2020-10-23", 0.789], ["2020-10-23", 0.787], ["2020-10-23", 0.776], ["2020-10-23", 0.779], ["2020-10-23", 0.779], ["2020-10-23", 0.792], ["2020-10-23", 0.785], ["2020-10-23", 0.791], ["2020-10-23", 0.793], ["2020-10-23", 0.803], ["2020-10-24", 0.801], ["2020-10-24", 0.803], ["2020-10-24", 0.803], ["2020-10-24", 0.801], ["2020-10-24", 0.801], ["2020-10-24", 0.804], ["2020-10-24", 0.804], ["2020-10-24", 0.801], ["2020-10-25", 0.802], ["2020-10-25", 0.799], ["2020-10-25", 0.8], ["2020-10-25", 0.807], ["2020-10-25", 0.807], ["2020-10-25", 0.807], ["2020-10-25", 0.809], ["2020-10-25", 0.806], ["2020-10-25", 0.809], ["2020-10-25", 0.809], ["2020-10-25", 0.81], ["2020-10-25", 0.808], ["2020-10-25", 0.813], ["2020-10-26", 0.813], ["2020-10-26", 0.812], ["2020-10-26", 0.805], ["2020-10-26", 0.805], ["2020-10-26", 0.804], ["2020-10-26", 0.802], ["2020-10-26", 0.805], ["2020-10-26", 0.807], ["2020-10-26", 0.814], ["2020-10-26", 0.815], ["2020-10-26", 0.814], ["2020-10-27", 0.814], ["2020-10-27", 0.818], ["2020-10-27", 0.817], ["2020-10-27", 0.816], ["2020-10-27", 0.816], ["2020-10-27", 0.814], ["2020-10-27", 0.814], ["2020-10-27", 0.811], ["2020-10-27", 0.819], ["2020-10-28", 0.819], ["2020-10-28", 0.82], ["2020-10-28", 0.82], ["2020-10-28", 0.819], ["2020-10-28", 0.822], ["2020-10-28", 0.824], ["2020-10-28", 0.825], ["2020-10-28", 0.827], ["2020-10-28", 0.826], ["2020-10-28", 0.814], ["2020-10-29", 0.821], ["2020-10-29", 0.821], ["2020-10-29", 0.823], ["2020-10-29", 0.822], ["2020-10-29", 0.824], ["2020-10-29", 0.828], ["2020-10-29", 0.829], ["2020-10-29", 0.827], ["2020-10-29", 0.828], ["2020-10-29", 0.829], ["2020-10-29", 0.828], ["2020-10-29", 0.828], ["2020-10-29", 0.829], ["2020-10-30", 0.828], ["2020-10-30", 0.828], ["2020-10-30", 0.825]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5359/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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The 59th presidential election for the United States of America will be held on November 3, 2020. Voter turnout is uncertain, in part because of the likely influence of the ongoing pandemic, but also with regard to concerns around potential voter suppression and the efficacy of voting by mail.
This question asks: | Politics & Governance | Resolution will be by credible media reports. In the case of disagreement between different media outlets, the turnout calculated by the Federal Election Commission in its report on Federal Elections in 2020 will be used. See here for a copy of the 2016 report.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.65], ["2020-10-20", 0.756], ["2020-10-20", 0.766], ["2020-10-21", 0.774], ["2020-10-21", 0.774], ["2020-10-21", 0.776], ["2020-10-21", 0.776], ["2020-10-21", 0.792], ["2020-10-21", 0.79], ["2020-10-21", 0.787], ["2020-10-21", 0.787], ["2020-10-21", 0.795], ["2020-10-21", 0.797], ["2020-10-21", 0.785], ["2020-10-21", 0.787], ["2020-10-21", 0.787], ["2020-10-22", 0.78], ["2020-10-22", 0.777], ["2020-10-22", 0.773], ["2020-10-22", 0.771], ["2020-10-22", 0.756], ["2020-10-22", 0.755], ["2020-10-22", 0.752], ["2020-10-22", 0.753], ["2020-10-22", 0.75], ["2020-10-22", 0.749], ["2020-10-23", 0.749], ["2020-10-23", 0.749], ["2020-10-23", 0.749], ["2020-10-23", 0.749], ["2020-10-23", 0.737], ["2020-10-23", 0.747], ["2020-10-24", 0.746], ["2020-10-24", 0.747], ["2020-10-24", 0.747], ["2020-10-24", 0.75], ["2020-10-24", 0.75], ["2020-10-24", 0.749], ["2020-10-24", 0.749], ["2020-10-25", 0.751], ["2020-10-25", 0.752], ["2020-10-25", 0.752], ["2020-10-25", 0.753], ["2020-10-25", 0.753], ["2020-10-25", 0.753], ["2020-10-25", 0.752], ["2020-10-25", 0.752], ["2020-10-25", 0.753], ["2020-10-25", 0.747], ["2020-10-25", 0.751], ["2020-10-25", 0.751], ["2020-10-26", 0.752], ["2020-10-26", 0.743], ["2020-10-26", 0.742], ["2020-10-26", 0.747], ["2020-10-26", 0.747], ["2020-10-26", 0.732], ["2020-10-26", 0.732], ["2020-10-26", 0.737], ["2020-10-27", 0.738], ["2020-10-27", 0.738], ["2020-10-27", 0.738], ["2020-10-27", 0.73], ["2020-10-27", 0.729], ["2020-10-27", 0.728], ["2020-10-27", 0.73], ["2020-10-27", 0.73], ["2020-10-27", 0.726], ["2020-10-27", 0.726], ["2020-10-27", 0.719], ["2020-10-28", 0.717], ["2020-10-28", 0.719], ["2020-10-28", 0.722], ["2020-10-28", 0.723], ["2020-10-28", 0.725], ["2020-10-28", 0.725], ["2020-10-28", 0.726], ["2020-10-28", 0.723], ["2020-10-28", 0.723], ["2020-10-28", 0.715], ["2020-10-28", 0.715], ["2020-10-28", 0.717], ["2020-10-28", 0.718], ["2020-10-28", 0.719], ["2020-10-29", 0.716], ["2020-10-29", 0.715], ["2020-10-29", 0.714], ["2020-10-29", 0.713], ["2020-10-29", 0.713], ["2020-10-29", 0.713], ["2020-10-29", 0.711], ["2020-10-29", 0.719], ["2020-10-29", 0.717], ["2020-10-29", 0.717], ["2020-10-29", 0.715], ["2020-10-29", 0.714], ["2020-10-29", 0.713], ["2020-10-29", 0.709], ["2020-10-30", 0.71], ["2020-10-30", 0.705], ["2020-10-30", 0.701]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5360/ | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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S&P 500 Index (Ticker SPX) is large-cap U.S. equities price index that covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization. It covers 500 large public companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,230.78 in 2019.
This question asks: | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively in the event that the value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 3,230.78 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-02-14 | 2020-10-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-20", 0.375], ["2020-10-20", 0.276], ["2020-10-20", 0.276], ["2020-10-21", 0.27], ["2020-10-21", 0.309], ["2020-10-21", 0.303], ["2020-10-21", 0.303], ["2020-10-21", 0.291], ["2020-10-21", 0.282], ["2020-10-21", 0.279], ["2020-10-21", 0.294], ["2020-10-21", 0.294], ["2020-10-21", 0.279], ["2020-10-21", 0.283], ["2020-10-21", 0.276], ["2020-10-21", 0.276], ["2020-10-21", 0.294], ["2020-10-21", 0.293], ["2020-10-21", 0.289], ["2020-10-22", 0.29], ["2020-10-22", 0.293], ["2020-10-22", 0.293], ["2020-10-22", 0.301], ["2020-10-22", 0.301], ["2020-10-23", 0.301], ["2020-10-23", 0.296], ["2020-10-23", 0.29], ["2020-10-24", 0.289], ["2020-10-24", 0.285], ["2020-10-24", 0.288], ["2020-10-24", 0.288], ["2020-10-24", 0.287], ["2020-10-24", 0.296], ["2020-10-24", 0.291], ["2020-10-25", 0.288], ["2020-10-25", 0.289], ["2020-10-25", 0.286], ["2020-10-25", 0.286], ["2020-10-25", 0.29], ["2020-10-25", 0.285], ["2020-10-25", 0.285], ["2020-10-25", 0.289], ["2020-10-25", 0.288], ["2020-10-26", 0.288], ["2020-10-26", 0.286], ["2020-10-26", 0.286], ["2020-10-26", 0.283], ["2020-10-26", 0.292], ["2020-10-26", 0.284], ["2020-10-26", 0.279], ["2020-10-26", 0.276], ["2020-10-26", 0.283], ["2020-10-27", 0.285], ["2020-10-27", 0.285], ["2020-10-27", 0.285], ["2020-10-27", 0.291], ["2020-10-27", 0.299], ["2020-10-27", 0.303], ["2020-10-27", 0.304], ["2020-10-27", 0.309], ["2020-10-27", 0.306], ["2020-10-27", 0.301], ["2020-10-27", 0.313], ["2020-10-27", 0.313], ["2020-10-27", 0.323], ["2020-10-27", 0.334], ["2020-10-27", 0.337], ["2020-10-28", 0.337], ["2020-10-28", 0.334], ["2020-10-28", 0.332], ["2020-10-28", 0.329], ["2020-10-28", 0.329], ["2020-10-28", 0.33], ["2020-10-28", 0.324], ["2020-10-28", 0.32], ["2020-10-28", 0.322], ["2020-10-28", 0.319], ["2020-10-28", 0.319], ["2020-10-28", 0.318], ["2020-10-29", 0.317], ["2020-10-29", 0.316], ["2020-10-29", 0.315], ["2020-10-29", 0.312], ["2020-10-29", 0.309], ["2020-10-29", 0.309], ["2020-10-29", 0.308], ["2020-10-29", 0.307], ["2020-10-29", 0.307], ["2020-10-29", 0.301], ["2020-10-29", 0.301], ["2020-10-29", 0.299], ["2020-10-29", 0.299], ["2020-10-29", 0.298], ["2020-10-29", 0.298], ["2020-10-29", 0.299], ["2020-10-29", 0.299], ["2020-10-30", 0.295], ["2020-10-30", 0.292], ["2020-10-30", 0.288], ["2020-10-30", 0.287], ["2020-10-30", 0.295]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5361/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
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Consumer confidence is an important economic indicator, reflecting consumers' optimism regarding the state of the economy and the outlook for their personal financial future. The indicator is tied to people's propensity to spend and save in the near-term. The OECD publishes a Consumer Confidence Indicator on monthly basis. Values over 100 indicate economic optimism, while values under 100 represent pessimism.
In January 2020, the CCI in the US was set at 101.57. In the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic and government restrictions in March-April 2020, consumer confidence in the US took a plunge. Since then the index has been on rise, but has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
This question asks:
For the month of January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?
The question resolves positively if the Consumer Confidence Index in the US in January 2021 is higher than 100, as measured by the OECD Consumer Confidence indicator. It resolves negatively if the indicator is equal to or lower than 100. The question resolves when data from the OECD for January 2021 become available.
Note, given that the CCI is normalised periodically, the CCI figure of 101.13 for February 2020 may be subject to revisions.
To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism? | metaculus | 0 |
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Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
Black Lives Matter is an American social movement that launched on 2013 with a hashtag campaign to protest police brutality towards black people in the United States. The organization has since been central in several protest waves in the US, peaking in mass rallies-turned clashes after the documented killing of George Floyd, an African American man from Minneapolis, by a police officer.
The popularity of Black Lives Matter has been divided in American public opinion since its founding, its popularity shifting over time in response to current events and political discourse. Support and opposition for the Black Lives Matter movement is measured daily on the Civiqs survey platform. As of 14 October 2020, the levels of opposition to Black Lives Matter is 38%.
This question asks: | Politics & Governance | The question resolves positively if levels of opposition to Black Lives Matter are higher than 40% according to Civiqs survey data. The question resolves negative if opposition is 40% or lower.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%? | metaculus | 0 |
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Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
In the beginning months of the COVID-19 crisis, Sweden and Denmark, two Nordic neighbors with extensive shared culture and history, took vastly different approaches to dealing with the pandemic. While Denmark swiftly enacted lockdowns in March, Sweden only recommended to its citizens to work from home and follow social distancing and hygiene guidelines. Current restrictions regarding gatherings, leisure, and the wearing of facemasks, are currently more stringent in Denmark than Sweden.
The rate of new confirmed deaths on a given date is given by the 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed deaths in the 7 days leading up to and including that date.
This question asks: | Healthcare & Biology | The question resolves positively if the rolling average of daily new confirmed deaths per million, during the week beginning in 26 December 2020 (inclusive) and ending on 1 January 2021 (inclusive), is higher in Sweden than Denmark.
The question resolves according to the relevant charts on OurWorldinData.com. The chart reports the 7-day rolling average of the daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people. Hence, the question resolves positively if and only if the dot for Sweden for Jan 1st is higher than the dot for Denmark for the same day.
Note: to ensure data integrity on the Our World In Data website, the question will be resolved based on data presented on the site on 1 February 2021.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark? | metaculus | 1 |
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Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.
The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee, saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.
In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents, the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”
The DOJ’s charges against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.
The SEC filing is a much more interesting read, with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges. | Security & Defense | If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively.
If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date.
Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence.
Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution.
If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively | true | 2024-12-31 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | metaculus | 0 |
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Metaculus already has a question asking whether Donald Trump will be reelected, but it is conditional on the result being known within a week. In view of the above, this question asks: | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positive if Donald Trump is the President of the USA at 12:00 AM EST on 2021-01-21.
It resolves negative if he is not president at that time | true | 2021-01-19 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | metaculus | 0 |
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a California ballot proposition that will appear on the November 3, 2020 general election ballot, asking California voters to amend the Constitution of California to repeal 1996's Proposition 209. Proposition 209 amended the state constitution to prohibit government institutions from considering race, sex, or ethnicity, specifically in the areas of public employment, public contracting, and public education. Therefore, Proposition 209 banned the use of affirmative action in California's public sector, while still permitting socioeconomic considerations. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if credible media report that proposition 16 passed in the 2020 California election | true | 2020-11-03 | Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election? | metaculus | 0 |
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Allows for Expansion of Rent Control. The measure modifies the three main limitations of Costa-Hawkins, allowing cities and counties to apply rent control to more properties than under current law. Specifically, cities and counties can apply rent control to most housing that is more than 15 years old. This does not include single-family homes owned by people with two or fewer properties. In addition, cities and counties can limit how much a landlord can increase rents when a new renter moves in. Communities that do so must allow a landlord to increase rents by up to 15 percent during the first three years after a new renter moves in. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if credible media report that proposition 21 passed in the 2020 California election | true | 2020-11-03 | Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election? | metaculus | 0 |
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Since the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the research.un.org website on 1 January 2022.
This question concerns the number of unique resolutions vetoed, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution 'S/2019/961' was vetoed by both Russia and China, but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.
Fine Print
In the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously. | true | 2020-12-31 | Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Her party has removed the party whip and suspended her, and made it clear that she should resign as MP. But she has not yet resigned, claiming that the illness "makes you act out of character". | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if Margaret Ferrier resigns as MP before 1st April 2021.
Fine Print
British MPs cannot technically resign; MPs who wish to step down are instead appointed to an "office of profit under the Crown", which disqualifies them from sitting in Parliament. There are two fictional offices usually used for this purpose. By "resign as MP", this question means "be appointed to an office of profit under the Crown".
Note that there are other ways that Ferrier could be removed as MP without resigning; these do not trigger positive resolution. | true | 2021-02-01 | Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'
In October 2020, North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.
The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.
Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.
"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear," tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads," tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University. | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.
This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place | true | 2021-10-14 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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Over the last week, it has been revealed at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had a five year 'close personal relationship' with another member of State Parliament, Daryl Maguire. Maguire resigned in 2018 after it was revealed that he had sought inappropriate payments in return for favours to developers. Over the last week ICAC has found that not only did Maguire receive payments from developers in return for favours, he was also involved in a 'cash for visa's scam' targeting Chinese nationals. Ms Berejiklian has not been directly implicated in either scheme.
The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.
Over the last 20 years, NSW has had 7 premiers. Of these, 1 was defeated by a leadership spill, 4 resigned, and 1 lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption. | Politics & Governance | The question will resolve positively if, before 1 December 2020, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.
For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Australian.
The question will close retrospectively, 24 hours before the event occurs | true | 2020-11-13 | [Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Over the years, North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.
Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'
In October 2020, North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.
This question asks: | Security & Defense | This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. If an intercontinental ballistic missile is tested, even if the test fails, the question resolves positively.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of 14 October 2020, the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States stands at approximately 7,894,800. Following a peak in July, the rate of new confirmed cases in August and the beginning of September had trended downward, however, since mid-September new confirmed cases have been on the rise.
Throughout the course of its spread in the United States, US president Donald Trump had been publicly dismissive of the threat posed by the virus. After having contracted coronavirus in early October, and quickly recovering, the President has doubled down on his message to the public that they should not be afraid of the disease.
This question asks: | Healthcare & Biology | The question resolves according to data on Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resources website on the 24th of December at 11:59PM ET.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here. | true | 2020-10-30 | Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million? | metaculus | 1 |
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