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2020-12-31 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.43], ["2020-01-16", 0.506], ["2020-01-19", 0.479], ["2020-01-21", 0.476], ["2020-01-23", 0.476], ["2020-01-26", 0.471], ["2020-01-28", 0.468], ["2020-01-30", 0.484], ["2020-02-01", 0.49], ["2020-02-04", 0.491], ["2020-02-06", 0.491], ["2020-02-13", 0.495], ["2020-02-14", 0.496], ["2020-02-18", 0.496], ["2020-02-20", 0.494], ["2020-02-23", 0.498], ["2020-03-02", 0.505], ["2020-03-04", 0.545], ["2020-03-07", 0.528], ["2020-03-09", 0.525], ["2020-03-11", 0.522], ["2020-03-13", 0.526], ["2020-03-16", 0.516], ["2020-03-18", 0.503], ["2020-03-19", 0.503], ["2020-03-21", 0.513], ["2020-03-23", 0.534], ["2020-03-26", 0.531], ["2020-03-30", 0.552], ["2020-04-02", 0.564], ["2020-04-05", 0.572], ["2020-04-08", 0.573], ["2020-04-16", 0.573], ["2020-04-19", 0.595], ["2020-04-22", 0.61], ["2020-04-24", 0.614], ["2020-04-26", 0.615], ["2020-05-01", 0.615], ["2020-05-04", 0.632], ["2020-05-08", 0.633], ["2020-05-25", 0.633], ["2020-05-28", 0.635], ["2020-06-01", 0.638], ["2020-06-04", 0.637], ["2020-06-06", 0.637], ["2020-06-15", 0.638], ["2020-06-21", 0.637], ["2020-06-28", 0.638], ["2020-06-28", 0.639], ["2020-07-22", 0.638], ["2020-07-25", 0.637], ["2020-07-26", 0.64], ["2020-07-29", 0.635], ["2020-07-31", 0.633], ["2020-08-02", 0.635], ["2020-08-11", 0.641], ["2020-08-13", 0.653], ["2020-08-15", 0.653], ["2020-08-20", 0.657], ["2020-08-23", 0.659], ["2020-08-27", 0.659], ["2020-09-04", 0.66], ["2020-09-04", 0.662], ["2020-09-09", 0.662], ["2020-09-12", 0.662], ["2020-09-25", 0.668], ["2020-09-28", 0.671], ["2020-10-02", 0.672], ["2020-10-04", 0.674], ["2020-10-08", 0.674], ["2020-10-10", 0.678], ["2020-10-13", 0.68], ["2020-10-15", 0.681], ["2020-10-17", 0.682], ["2020-10-19", 0.715], ["2020-10-23", 0.715], ["2020-10-26", 0.715], ["2020-10-30", 0.716], ["2020-11-02", 0.719], ["2020-11-05", 0.722], ["2020-11-07", 0.724], ["2020-11-09", 0.725], ["2020-11-13", 0.727], ["2020-11-15", 0.728], ["2020-11-18", 0.73], ["2020-11-21", 0.73], ["2020-11-23", 0.73], ["2020-11-25", 0.733], ["2020-11-28", 0.734], ["2020-12-01", 0.734], ["2020-12-03", 0.744], ["2020-12-06", 0.755], ["2020-12-09", 0.76], ["2020-12-11", 0.764], ["2020-12-14", 0.764], ["2020-12-16", 0.765], ["2020-12-21", 0.765], ["2020-12-24", 0.777], ["2020-12-27", 0.783], ["2020-12-30", 0.794], ["2020-12-31", 0.84]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3482/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | During Benjamin Netanyahu's fourth premiership, a number of alleged corruption scandals have been investigated involving Netanyahu and his close political circle. Police recommended indictments against Netanyahu, and on 21 November 2019, Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes and fraud (BBC, 2019).
In March 2020, Israel will head to the polls and about 9 million Israelis will decide if he is worthy of re-election.
According to this Vox article by Sigal Samuel, Kelsey Piper, and Dylan Matthews:
In March, Israel heads to the polls for the third time in a year, and some observers think this election might finally be the end of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After all, he’s recently been indicted in three corruption cases and he’s facing tough opposition from a centrist party that has a slight lead on him in the polls.
But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from my years living in and reporting on Israel, it’s that you should never underestimate Bibi’s ability to rise from the political ashes. And indeed, Bibi just blew his opponent out of the water in the Likud party primary, winning 72.5 percent of the vote. He’s already using that to fire up his base.
Will Netanyahu remain Israeli’s Prime Minister till the end of 2020?
This question resolves positively if Netanyahu is remains Israel's Prime Minister in the year 2020. This resolves negatively if, for any reason, Netanyahu no longer holds his position of Prime Minister or Prime Minister-designate at any point in the year 2020.
In case negative resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.38], ["2020-01-16", 0.786], ["2020-01-17", 0.79], ["2020-01-18", 0.821], ["2020-01-20", 0.822], ["2020-01-22", 0.782], ["2020-01-25", 0.801], ["2020-01-27", 0.801], ["2020-02-01", 0.804], ["2020-02-01", 0.785], ["2020-02-15", 0.781], ["2020-02-18", 0.781], ["2020-02-23", 0.779], ["2020-03-06", 0.779], ["2020-03-10", 0.777], ["2020-03-11", 0.775], ["2020-03-16", 0.783], ["2020-03-17", 0.776], ["2020-03-19", 0.776], ["2020-03-23", 0.775], ["2020-03-25", 0.787], ["2020-03-28", 0.791], ["2020-03-29", 0.79], ["2020-03-31", 0.791], ["2020-04-02", 0.79], ["2020-04-04", 0.79], ["2020-04-05", 0.791], ["2020-04-14", 0.79], ["2020-04-21", 0.79], ["2020-04-24", 0.791], ["2020-05-03", 0.794], ["2020-05-10", 0.795], ["2020-05-10", 0.796], ["2020-05-22", 0.796], ["2020-06-03", 0.796], ["2020-06-04", 0.789], ["2020-06-05", 0.788], ["2020-06-18", 0.789], ["2020-06-18", 0.782], ["2020-06-21", 0.782], ["2020-06-23", 0.779], ["2020-06-29", 0.779], ["2020-07-14", 0.782], ["2020-07-28", 0.782], ["2020-07-29", 0.805], ["2020-07-30", 0.809], ["2020-08-01", 0.808], ["2020-08-04", 0.808], ["2020-08-05", 0.813], ["2020-08-06", 0.823], ["2020-08-11", 0.826], ["2020-08-14", 0.828], ["2020-08-15", 0.828], ["2020-08-18", 0.836], ["2020-08-19", 0.836], ["2020-08-21", 0.825], ["2020-08-24", 0.828], ["2020-08-27", 0.829], ["2020-08-29", 0.829], ["2020-08-31", 0.831], ["2020-09-04", 0.831], ["2020-09-14", 0.831], ["2020-09-14", 0.834], ["2020-09-18", 0.836], ["2020-09-19", 0.837], ["2020-09-25", 0.838], ["2020-09-25", 0.839], ["2020-09-29", 0.84], ["2020-10-04", 0.84], ["2020-10-09", 0.843], ["2020-10-22", 0.843], ["2020-10-31", 0.843], ["2020-11-03", 0.843], ["2020-11-03", 0.849], ["2020-11-06", 0.849], ["2020-11-10", 0.849], ["2020-11-10", 0.848], ["2020-11-13", 0.852], ["2020-11-18", 0.853], ["2020-11-20", 0.853], ["2020-11-23", 0.853], ["2020-11-24", 0.854], ["2020-11-26", 0.856], ["2020-11-28", 0.858], ["2020-11-29", 0.859], ["2020-12-01", 0.859], ["2020-12-01", 0.861], ["2020-12-05", 0.861], ["2020-12-07", 0.864], ["2020-12-10", 0.864], ["2020-12-15", 0.863], ["2020-12-15", 0.864], ["2020-12-18", 0.864], ["2020-12-20", 0.865], ["2020-12-22", 0.866], ["2020-12-23", 0.869], ["2020-12-26", 0.869], ["2020-12-28", 0.873], ["2020-12-29", 0.879], ["2020-12-31", 0.9], ["2020-12-31", 0.903]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3483/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Gene drives are phenomena in a species' population in which one version of a gene, or allele, is probabilistically favored over other alleles that are otherwise equally favored by fitness. A gene drive in a particular allele shows up as a bias for the corresponding phenotype in the offspring. Consider two parents with different alleles for the same gene; if there exists a gene drive for one allele, it is highly likely that all of the parents' offspring will carry the driven gene's trait.
With new advances in genetic engineering using CRISPR, it is now much easier to modify an organism's genes. This makes engineered gene drives tractable: a gene coding for the CRISPR system itself can be encoded near to the gene being "driven," so that if one copy of the driven allele and one "wild" allele are inherited, the CRISPR system modifies the wild gene so that the driven gene plus CRISPR system is inherited. This process can spread the driven gene exponentially throughout a population, at a rate far exceeding the spread of a gene that is merely favorable for survival.
Uses of this method include the potential to eliminate diseases like malaria or lyme disease that are spread by a fast-reproducing vector, by promoting disease-resistant traits. Valentino Gantz et. al. have genetically altered a primary malaria vector native to India, the Anopheles stephensi mosquito, to carry and pass on anti-malaria traits. Another study published in nature biotechnology offers a more drastic approach that would render female Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, native to Africa, completely infertile, with the intent of wiping out the species in affected ecosystems. Similar studies have investigated engineering mice (a prime carrier) to be immune to Lyme disease.
With Malaria afflicting hundreds of millions of people per year, advances in gene drive research have instigated public conversations about the usefulness, feasibility, and ethics of gene drives being encouraged before testing them in wild ecosystems.
In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?
For negative resolution, there must be credible reports that the drive was initiated. For the purpose of this question, the wild population can be isolated (say on an island or even in an enclosure) to control spreading but should aim to replicate natural reproduction etc., and cannot be a laboratory setting.
In case of ambiguity we will adopt as our resolution the resolution chosen by Dylan Matthews and/or Kelsey Piper in their review of their 2020 predictions.
In case negative resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. | true | 2021-01-01 | In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-31 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.9], ["2020-01-14", 0.835], ["2020-01-14", 0.835], ["2020-01-14", 0.9], ["2020-01-14", 0.92], ["2020-01-14", 0.928], ["2020-01-14", 0.882], ["2020-01-14", 0.893], ["2020-01-14", 0.893], ["2020-01-15", 0.887], ["2020-01-15", 0.889], ["2020-01-15", 0.89], ["2020-01-15", 0.89], ["2020-01-15", 0.9], ["2020-01-16", 0.915], ["2020-01-16", 0.915], ["2020-01-16", 0.906], ["2020-01-16", 0.913], ["2020-01-16", 0.918], ["2020-01-16", 0.917], ["2020-01-16", 0.917], ["2020-01-16", 0.907], ["2020-01-16", 0.875], ["2020-01-16", 0.876], ["2020-01-16", 0.879], ["2020-01-16", 0.88], ["2020-01-16", 0.885], ["2020-01-16", 0.89], ["2020-01-16", 0.893], ["2020-01-16", 0.893], ["2020-01-16", 0.877], ["2020-01-16", 0.877], ["2020-01-16", 0.871], ["2020-01-16", 0.871], ["2020-01-16", 0.87], ["2020-01-16", 0.872], ["2020-01-16", 0.872], ["2020-01-16", 0.877], ["2020-01-16", 0.875], ["2020-01-16", 0.875], ["2020-01-16", 0.879], ["2020-01-17", 0.882], ["2020-01-18", 0.883], ["2020-01-18", 0.883], ["2020-01-18", 0.886], ["2020-01-18", 0.889], ["2020-01-18", 0.89], ["2020-01-18", 0.885], ["2020-01-18", 0.888], ["2020-01-18", 0.885], ["2020-01-18", 0.885], ["2020-01-18", 0.887], ["2020-01-18", 0.885], ["2020-01-18", 0.886], ["2020-01-18", 0.886], ["2020-01-19", 0.888], ["2020-01-19", 0.891], ["2020-01-20", 0.891], ["2020-01-20", 0.891], ["2020-01-20", 0.891], ["2020-01-21", 0.888], ["2020-01-21", 0.888], ["2020-01-21", 0.883], ["2020-01-22", 0.885], ["2020-01-22", 0.885], ["2020-01-22", 0.887], ["2020-01-22", 0.888], ["2020-01-23", 0.889], ["2020-01-23", 0.889], ["2020-01-23", 0.89], ["2020-01-23", 0.891], ["2020-01-23", 0.891], ["2020-01-23", 0.895], ["2020-01-24", 0.895], ["2020-01-24", 0.898], ["2020-01-24", 0.898], ["2020-01-24", 0.898], ["2020-01-24", 0.9], ["2020-01-24", 0.9], ["2020-01-24", 0.902], ["2020-01-25", 0.902], ["2020-01-26", 0.9], ["2020-01-26", 0.892], ["2020-01-26", 0.9], ["2020-01-27", 0.9], ["2020-01-28", 0.897], ["2020-01-29", 0.897], ["2020-01-29", 0.898], ["2020-01-29", 0.898], ["2020-01-29", 0.9], ["2020-01-30", 0.901], ["2020-01-30", 0.901], ["2020-01-30", 0.903], ["2020-01-30", 0.902], ["2020-01-30", 0.903], ["2020-01-30", 0.905], ["2020-01-30", 0.905], ["2020-01-31", 0.907], ["2020-01-31", 0.907], ["2020-01-31", 0.907], ["2020-01-31", 0.908]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3485/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Brexit withdrawal agreement sets the terms of the withdrawal of the UK from the EU. The original withdrawal agreement was rejected by the House of Commons on three occasions, leading to the resignation of Theresa May as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It was subsequently renegotiated by Boris Johnson, with a new version published on 17 October 2019.
The UK and the EU agreed a draft agreement on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU on 17 October 2019 (IFG, 2019). MPs have given their final backing to the bill that will implement the UK government's Brexit deal (BBC, 2020).
Both the UK and the EU need to approve and sign the withdrawal agreement. They will then start to negotiate new arrangements. There would be a transition period to prepare for new rules.
The UK could leave with no deal if the withdrawal agreement is not approved by 31 January 2020, or at the end of a transition period (GOV.UK, 2020).
Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?
The question resolves positive if either of the following obtain:
The UK leaves with a withdrawal agreement in 2020 with a transitional period (during which time the UK and EU continues to operate under Single Market rules) scheduled to end in or before 2026.
The UK leaves without a withdrawal agreement in 2020 (i.e. a "no-deal" Brexit occurs).
Positive resolution need not require ratification of the terms of UK's exit, and therefore a "no-deal" Brexit triggers positive resolution. Moreover, the UK leaving with a withdrawal agreement also triggers positive resolution, provided the transitional period is scheduled to end by the end of 2026. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-27 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.54], ["2020-01-17", 0.684], ["2020-01-19", 0.717], ["2020-01-21", 0.713], ["2020-01-24", 0.707], ["2020-01-25", 0.717], ["2020-01-27", 0.72], ["2020-01-28", 0.729], ["2020-02-01", 0.729], ["2020-02-04", 0.73], ["2020-02-06", 0.729], ["2020-02-07", 0.754], ["2020-02-10", 0.755], ["2020-02-13", 0.756], ["2020-02-15", 0.757], ["2020-02-16", 0.758], ["2020-02-18", 0.763], ["2020-02-20", 0.76], ["2020-02-23", 0.76], ["2020-02-24", 0.758], ["2020-03-05", 0.757], ["2020-03-08", 0.758], ["2020-03-11", 0.759], ["2020-03-14", 0.757], ["2020-03-17", 0.757], ["2020-03-19", 0.755], ["2020-03-22", 0.755], ["2020-03-23", 0.756], ["2020-03-31", 0.756], ["2020-04-02", 0.757], ["2020-04-03", 0.757], ["2020-04-05", 0.757], ["2020-04-09", 0.759], ["2020-04-10", 0.759], ["2020-04-14", 0.76], ["2020-04-16", 0.76], ["2020-04-17", 0.761], ["2020-04-20", 0.758], ["2020-04-25", 0.758], ["2020-05-04", 0.757], ["2020-05-06", 0.757], ["2020-05-07", 0.757], ["2020-05-10", 0.766], ["2020-05-12", 0.769], ["2020-05-18", 0.769], ["2020-05-27", 0.765], ["2020-05-28", 0.772], ["2020-06-04", 0.774], ["2020-06-07", 0.773], ["2020-06-10", 0.776], ["2020-06-11", 0.777], ["2020-06-14", 0.78], ["2020-06-15", 0.781], ["2020-06-17", 0.781], ["2020-06-18", 0.783], ["2020-06-21", 0.783], ["2020-06-21", 0.785], ["2020-06-26", 0.785], ["2020-06-27", 0.789], ["2020-06-30", 0.789], ["2020-07-01", 0.793], ["2020-07-06", 0.793], ["2020-07-08", 0.794], ["2020-07-10", 0.798], ["2020-07-13", 0.801], ["2020-07-15", 0.797], ["2020-07-17", 0.802], ["2020-07-19", 0.791], ["2020-07-24", 0.791], ["2020-07-30", 0.79], ["2020-08-01", 0.8], ["2020-08-04", 0.801], ["2020-08-10", 0.801], ["2020-08-12", 0.801], ["2020-08-14", 0.802], ["2020-08-16", 0.804], ["2020-08-20", 0.804], ["2020-08-20", 0.805], ["2020-08-25", 0.806], ["2020-08-29", 0.806], ["2020-09-15", 0.805], ["2020-09-16", 0.806], ["2020-09-18", 0.806], ["2020-09-20", 0.6], ["2020-09-22", 0.505], ["2020-09-23", 0.461], ["2020-09-25", 0.439], ["2020-09-27", 0.407], ["2020-09-29", 0.379], ["2020-10-01", 0.372], ["2020-10-03", 0.363], ["2020-10-05", 0.362], ["2020-10-07", 0.362], ["2020-10-09", 0.361], ["2020-10-11", 0.361], ["2020-10-14", 0.35], ["2020-10-17", 0.329], ["2020-10-19", 0.327], ["2020-10-21", 0.324], ["2020-10-24", 0.319], ["2020-10-26", 0.299]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3486/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | So far, Trump appointed two Justices to the Supreme Court of the United States - Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. There are currently no vacancies.
Will Donald Trump fail to appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his first term?
Resolution is positive if at least one of the following two conditions are fulfilled:
Donald Trump fails to send the nomination of at least one new Supreme Court Justice to the Senate.
Donald Trump sends the nomination of at least one new Supreme Court Justice to the Senate but no nominated Justice is sworn in before the end of his first term, for whatever reason.
For the purposes of this question, any situation in which Trump is temporarily not exercising his office (e.g., Cheney was Acting President when Bush had surgery) will not preclude a positive resolution, as long as he continues to be the President in the technical constitutional sense.
This question resolves on the last day of Trump's (first) term in the office of the President. If it resolves positively, this question closes two days prior to the date when resolution is triggered. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-16 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.59], ["2020-01-16", 0.561], ["2020-01-18", 0.558], ["2020-01-20", 0.558], ["2020-01-23", 0.55], ["2020-01-30", 0.55], ["2020-02-01", 0.551], ["2020-02-04", 0.554], ["2020-02-13", 0.559], ["2020-02-14", 0.558], ["2020-02-17", 0.558], ["2020-02-18", 0.55], ["2020-02-21", 0.553], ["2020-02-23", 0.553], ["2020-02-26", 0.552], ["2020-02-29", 0.553], ["2020-03-09", 0.554], ["2020-03-11", 0.551], ["2020-03-14", 0.545], ["2020-03-17", 0.545], ["2020-03-21", 0.545], ["2020-03-23", 0.548], ["2020-03-27", 0.548], ["2020-03-27", 0.55], ["2020-03-31", 0.548], ["2020-04-03", 0.548], ["2020-04-05", 0.548], ["2020-04-14", 0.548], ["2020-04-16", 0.55], ["2020-04-19", 0.55], ["2020-04-22", 0.555], ["2020-04-24", 0.548], ["2020-04-28", 0.548], ["2020-05-01", 0.554], ["2020-05-07", 0.554], ["2020-06-01", 0.553], ["2020-06-04", 0.553], ["2020-06-08", 0.554], ["2020-06-09", 0.555], ["2020-06-12", 0.56], ["2020-06-15", 0.673], ["2020-06-17", 0.675], ["2020-06-19", 0.676], ["2020-06-20", 0.673], ["2020-06-26", 0.676], ["2020-06-28", 0.676], ["2020-07-01", 0.678], ["2020-07-04", 0.678], ["2020-07-12", 0.682], ["2020-07-14", 0.686], ["2020-07-16", 0.688], ["2020-07-19", 0.693], ["2020-07-20", 0.695], ["2020-07-28", 0.695], ["2020-08-01", 0.695], ["2020-08-03", 0.696], ["2020-08-06", 0.696], ["2020-08-11", 0.696], ["2020-08-17", 0.696], ["2020-08-20", 0.701], ["2020-08-31", 0.701], ["2020-09-07", 0.701], ["2020-09-08", 0.702], ["2020-09-25", 0.704], ["2020-09-28", 0.704], ["2020-09-30", 0.706], ["2020-10-02", 0.705], ["2020-10-03", 0.704], ["2020-10-06", 0.705], ["2020-10-09", 0.705], ["2020-10-15", 0.706], ["2020-10-19", 0.71], ["2020-10-22", 0.712], ["2020-10-23", 0.716], ["2020-10-26", 0.73], ["2020-10-28", 0.734], ["2020-10-31", 0.734], ["2020-11-02", 0.735], ["2020-11-04", 0.745], ["2020-11-08", 0.747], ["2020-11-11", 0.752], ["2020-11-13", 0.753], ["2020-11-15", 0.762], ["2020-11-18", 0.762], ["2020-11-20", 0.764], ["2020-11-21", 0.764], ["2020-11-24", 0.764], ["2020-11-27", 0.769], ["2020-11-30", 0.769], ["2020-12-01", 0.77], ["2020-12-04", 0.772], ["2020-12-07", 0.774], ["2020-12-09", 0.774], ["2020-12-12", 0.775], ["2020-12-14", 0.782], ["2020-12-18", 0.783], ["2020-12-19", 0.784], ["2020-12-22", 0.785], ["2020-12-26", 0.792], ["2020-12-29", 0.8], ["2020-12-31", 0.842]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3487/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 (IPCC, 2013). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:
Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation (Min et al., 2011), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought (Burke et al., 2006),
Global sea level rise (Vermeer and Rahmstorf), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers (Titus, 2008), and global ocean warming and acidification (Pörtner, 2008),
Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases (McMichael et al., 2006), and increased food security risk (Zhao et al., 2017; FAO, 2008),
Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species (Warren et al., 2013).
According to GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data, over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.
According to Vox's Sigal Samuel:
Thanks to new data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, we now know that 2019 was the second-hottest year ever recorded. Only 2016 was hotter, and by a really infinitesimal amount, due to El Niño.
Weather events such as El Niño always have the potential to produce small fluctuations in global temperature trends, so I’m not going to go above a 60 percent estimated probability here. But I will say this: Overall, temperature has clearly been trending upward. And there is a solid likelihood that 2020 will be a hotter year for the world than 2019.
Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?
This question resolves positively if the Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature in 2020 is higher than it was in 2019, according to NASA's GISTEMP data.
GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here. Data can also be found here. Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-27 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.62], ["2020-01-15", 0.53], ["2020-01-15", 0.52], ["2020-01-15", 0.52], ["2020-01-16", 0.507], ["2020-01-16", 0.485], ["2020-01-16", 0.499], ["2020-01-17", 0.509], ["2020-01-17", 0.509], ["2020-01-17", 0.514], ["2020-01-18", 0.519], ["2020-01-18", 0.519], ["2020-01-18", 0.515], ["2020-01-19", 0.515], ["2020-01-21", 0.515], ["2020-01-21", 0.513], ["2020-01-23", 0.513], ["2020-01-23", 0.526], ["2020-01-29", 0.528], ["2020-01-29", 0.528], ["2020-02-01", 0.528], ["2020-02-01", 0.529], ["2020-02-07", 0.535], ["2020-02-15", 0.535], ["2020-02-23", 0.535], ["2020-03-11", 0.53], ["2020-03-17", 0.53], ["2020-03-19", 0.53], ["2020-03-19", 0.533], ["2020-03-20", 0.533], ["2020-03-23", 0.533], ["2020-03-24", 0.532], ["2020-03-26", 0.532], ["2020-03-29", 0.534], ["2020-03-29", 0.534], ["2020-03-30", 0.534], ["2020-03-31", 0.536], ["2020-04-02", 0.535], ["2020-04-02", 0.535], ["2020-04-02", 0.535], ["2020-04-03", 0.535], ["2020-04-03", 0.535], ["2020-04-04", 0.535], ["2020-04-05", 0.535], ["2020-04-08", 0.535], ["2020-04-11", 0.532], ["2020-04-15", 0.532], ["2020-04-17", 0.534], ["2020-04-21", 0.534], ["2020-05-25", 0.531], ["2020-05-28", 0.537], ["2020-05-28", 0.538], ["2020-06-01", 0.537], ["2020-06-04", 0.537], ["2020-06-07", 0.538], ["2020-06-07", 0.534], ["2020-06-09", 0.534], ["2020-06-12", 0.537], ["2020-06-18", 0.538], ["2020-06-21", 0.538], ["2020-07-07", 0.537], ["2020-07-08", 0.537], ["2020-07-12", 0.538], ["2020-07-18", 0.538], ["2020-08-01", 0.537], ["2020-08-11", 0.537], ["2020-08-15", 0.538], ["2020-08-15", 0.538], ["2020-08-16", 0.534], ["2020-08-16", 0.537], ["2020-08-16", 0.547], ["2020-08-16", 0.549], ["2020-08-17", 0.565], ["2020-08-17", 0.566], ["2020-08-17", 0.568], ["2020-08-20", 0.569], ["2020-08-20", 0.57], ["2020-08-20", 0.576], ["2020-08-20", 0.579], ["2020-08-21", 0.597], ["2020-08-21", 0.599], ["2020-08-21", 0.603], ["2020-08-21", 0.611], ["2020-08-22", 0.629], ["2020-08-22", 0.635], ["2020-08-22", 0.647], ["2020-08-22", 0.648], ["2020-08-23", 0.658], ["2020-08-23", 0.664], ["2020-08-23", 0.691], ["2020-08-24", 0.698], ["2020-08-24", 0.718], ["2020-08-24", 0.721], ["2020-08-25", 0.734], ["2020-08-25", 0.737], ["2020-08-25", 0.738], ["2020-08-26", 0.755], ["2020-08-26", 0.757], ["2020-08-26", 0.757], ["2020-08-27", 0.756], ["2020-08-27", 0.759]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3488/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | California has dry, windy, and often hot weather conditions from spring through late autumn that can produce moderate to devastating wildfires. As a result, many wildfires are somewhat of a common occurence in California.
According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, the most destructive wildfire was the Camp Fire of November 2018, which spanned 153,336 acres, destroyed an estimated 18,804 structures and killed 85 people.
According to Vox's Umair Irfan,
The overall trend in California is troubling too. Six of California’s 10 most destructive wildfires on record have hit in just the past three years.
Similarly, According to Vox's Kelsey Piper:
On a list of the ten most destructive wildfires since records started being kept in 1932, (from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection), five happened in the last decade. That suggests that the “new normal” is a record fire about every other year — though 2020 is likely to be worse than the early parts of the decade, as the effects of climate change worsen.
Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?
This question resolves positively if the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection estimates that a wildfire that occurs in 2020 destroys more structures than the 10th most destructive wildfire to date (which currently is the Thomas fire in Ventura & Santa Barbara which destroyed 1,063 structures). | true | 2021-01-01 | Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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According to this Vox article by Sigal Samuel, Kelsey Piper, and Dylan Matthews:
In most recent years (though not all of them), global carbon emissions have increased from the previous year. Saying there’s an 80 percent chance they’ll increase again, then, is a much more conservative prediction than it sounds. (This is called reference class forecasting, where you predict a statistic by looking at what prediction would have been correct in recent years or in other events like this one.)
Why are CO2 levels still increasing? Well, global population is still increasing (though more slowly than ever) and our efforts to decrease greenhouse gas emissions have been...lackluster, to say the least. Major polluters have made only token steps to reduce their emissions, and no country has cut their emissions as fast as the IPCC says that we need to. That’s a scary trend, and it makes me deeply unhappy. But I don’t see a lot of reason to expect it to change in 2020 — not with the same people in power across most of the world’s biggest emitters, and the same incentives for shortsighted climate policy around the world
Will global Global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?
This question resolves positively if preliminary estimates produced in the first half of 2021 indicate that global carbon emissions alone (not GHG emissions in CO2e) in 2020 was higher than emissions in 2019. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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According to this Vox article by Sigal Samuel, Kelsey Piper, and Dylan Matthews:
In 2019, we saw a growing backlash against facial recognition technology. San Francisco, Oakland, and Berkeley banned it, as did three communities in Massachusetts: Somerville, Brookline, and Northampton. In 2020, I predict we’ll see at least three more cities institute a ban on the controversial tech.
To be clear, I’m talking about a ban that applies to city departments like police; I think outright bans that would also cover businesses, individuals, and federal agencies are way less likely.
I’m partly going off local news about particular cities — Portland is currently deliberating over a ban, and the western Massachusetts city of Springfield might be next. Last year saw mounting pushback against facial recognition from AI researchers, groups like the ACLU, low-income tenants in Brooklyn, and many more. Their protests seem to be growing bolder, not quieter. I should note that according to Pew Research Center survey data, most Americans are now in favor of police using facial recognition. I don’t think a nationwide ban is in the cards for 2020 (sorry, Bernie). But a lot can still happen on the city level, and I think it will.
Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?
This question resolves positively if at least three U.S. cities pass legislation that bans the local government use of facial-recognition technology before the end of 2020. To count, the relevant legislation needs to be passed, but the bans need not go into effect before the end of 2020. In case of ambiguity we will adopt the resolution by Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper in their assessments of their 2020 predictions. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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These camps are reportedly operated outside the legal system and many Uyghurs have been interned without trial with no charges levied against them. Local authorities are reportedly holding hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs and Muslims from other ethnic minorities in these camps, for the stated purpose of countering extremism and terrorism as well as to promote sinicization (ibid.).
Will China fail to partially curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?
This question resolves negatively if any of the following conditions obtain:
At least two independent credible reports indicate a reduction of the inmate population of at least 200,000 inmates relative to their latest estimates for 2019.
or
At least two independent credible reports provide compelling evidence that there was a net reduction of at least 200 internment camps in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
The question resolves positively if neither of these two conditions have been satisfied by the end of 2020. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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The 2020 United States Senate elections will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 Class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections.
According to Vox's Dylan Matthews, the Republican stronghold can be upset:
There’s a chance, if literally everything breaks in Democrats’ favor, that they retake the Senate. But it requires a lot going right for them, and even one botched race means Republicans hold control.
On paper this should have been a promising year for Dems. Twenty-three Republican seats are up, compared to only 12 Democratic seats; these were, except for a couple of special elections, seats that were last open in 2014, when Republicans gained a whopping nine seats. You would think that Democrats could regain some of those nine that they lost, but you’d mostly be wrong. Democrats lost seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, and West Virginia that they’re basically not contesting this time around. Iowa and Montana look only slightly better.
Instead, Democrats’ hopes rest on the two 2014 losses they think they can reverse — in North Carolina and Colorado — as well as a special election in Arizona, an unlikely Alabama seat they won in 2017, and Susan Collins’ once-safe seat in Maine that they’re hoping her vote for Kavanaugh will make competitive. Sweeps of this magnitude do happen (2006 and 2008 both saw huge Democratic sweeps), they’re rare, especially as the parties have polarized geographically, and Democrats are underdogs in Alabama and North Carolina in particular. There’s a chance the Dems pull it out, but I think it’s quite unlikely.
Will the GOP hold the Senate in 2020?
This resolves positively if the Senate Majority leader elected at the start of the 2021 congressional session is a Republican. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-10 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.55], ["2020-01-14", 0.38], ["2020-01-14", 0.47], ["2020-01-14", 0.478], ["2020-01-15", 0.462], ["2020-01-15", 0.455], ["2020-01-15", 0.519], ["2020-01-15", 0.519], ["2020-01-15", 0.446], ["2020-01-15", 0.446], ["2020-01-16", 0.455], ["2020-01-16", 0.455], ["2020-01-16", 0.445], ["2020-01-16", 0.435], ["2020-01-16", 0.461], ["2020-01-16", 0.451], ["2020-01-16", 0.459], ["2020-01-16", 0.453], ["2020-01-16", 0.447], ["2020-01-16", 0.445], ["2020-01-16", 0.446], ["2020-01-16", 0.461], ["2020-01-16", 0.457], ["2020-01-16", 0.462], ["2020-01-16", 0.456], ["2020-01-17", 0.45], ["2020-01-17", 0.442], ["2020-01-17", 0.445], ["2020-01-17", 0.445], ["2020-01-18", 0.46], ["2020-01-18", 0.457], ["2020-01-18", 0.462], ["2020-01-20", 0.46], ["2020-01-21", 0.461], ["2020-01-24", 0.449], ["2020-01-24", 0.453], ["2020-01-26", 0.462], ["2020-02-01", 0.465], ["2020-02-02", 0.473], ["2020-02-04", 0.471], ["2020-02-05", 0.47], ["2020-02-05", 0.47], ["2020-02-06", 0.476], ["2020-02-07", 0.476], ["2020-02-10", 0.482], ["2020-02-12", 0.482], ["2020-02-13", 0.49], ["2020-02-16", 0.49], ["2020-02-17", 0.49], ["2020-02-17", 0.487], ["2020-02-17", 0.492], ["2020-02-17", 0.489], ["2020-02-17", 0.487], ["2020-02-17", 0.484], ["2020-02-17", 0.484], ["2020-02-17", 0.481], ["2020-02-17", 0.481], ["2020-02-17", 0.451], ["2020-02-18", 0.449], ["2020-02-18", 0.449], ["2020-02-18", 0.445], ["2020-02-18", 0.449], ["2020-02-18", 0.446], ["2020-02-18", 0.439], ["2020-02-18", 0.435], ["2020-02-18", 0.435], ["2020-02-18", 0.432], ["2020-02-18", 0.432], ["2020-02-19", 0.43], ["2020-02-20", 0.432], ["2020-02-20", 0.433], ["2020-02-20", 0.432], ["2020-02-20", 0.43], ["2020-02-20", 0.43], ["2020-02-20", 0.43], ["2020-02-21", 0.429], ["2020-02-21", 0.427], ["2020-02-21", 0.423], ["2020-02-21", 0.421], ["2020-02-21", 0.422], ["2020-02-22", 0.422], ["2020-02-22", 0.421], ["2020-02-22", 0.418], ["2020-02-23", 0.414], ["2020-02-23", 0.415], ["2020-02-23", 0.415], ["2020-02-24", 0.416], ["2020-02-24", 0.416], ["2020-02-24", 0.416], ["2020-02-25", 0.42], ["2020-02-25", 0.422], ["2020-02-25", 0.421], ["2020-02-25", 0.423], ["2020-02-25", 0.412], ["2020-02-25", 0.414], ["2020-02-25", 0.413], ["2020-02-25", 0.401], ["2020-02-25", 0.393], ["2020-02-25", 0.393], ["2020-02-26", 0.384], ["2020-02-26", 0.384]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3493/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | According to Vox's Kelsey Piper:
I observed above that the primaries are quite a tossup — there are still four candidates with a very reasonable shot at winning. But I still have this feeling they’ll be over quickly. There’s the four early caucuses and primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Then on March 3rd, a large, demographically balanced (representing the overall Democratic electorate pretty well) set of states will vote.
Two-person races often drag out well past Super Tuesday. But I think this four-person race might be primed to end pretty fast. Once a candidate has gotten a series of wins, voters might be pretty quick to rally behind them — and a Super Tuesday lead might quickly become insurmountable.
Will the Democratic primary be settled on Super Tuesday?
This question resolves positively if Electionbettingodds.com assigns one candidate at least 90% of winning the Democratic primary at some point within the 7-day period starting on Super Tuesday (Tuesday, 3 March). | true | 2020-02-26 | Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.62], ["2020-01-16", 0.762], ["2020-01-17", 0.677], ["2020-01-18", 0.647], ["2020-01-21", 0.641], ["2020-01-23", 0.63], ["2020-02-01", 0.63], ["2020-02-01", 0.62], ["2020-02-06", 0.62], ["2020-02-15", 0.602], ["2020-02-23", 0.602], ["2020-03-04", 0.591], ["2020-03-06", 0.59], ["2020-03-07", 0.592], ["2020-03-10", 0.584], ["2020-03-11", 0.576], ["2020-03-13", 0.576], ["2020-03-14", 0.575], ["2020-03-16", 0.575], ["2020-03-17", 0.561], ["2020-03-20", 0.561], ["2020-03-23", 0.554], ["2020-03-30", 0.548], ["2020-03-31", 0.549], ["2020-04-02", 0.549], ["2020-04-04", 0.514], ["2020-04-05", 0.5], ["2020-04-08", 0.5], ["2020-04-10", 0.499], ["2020-04-12", 0.498], ["2020-04-13", 0.479], ["2020-04-15", 0.479], ["2020-04-16", 0.475], ["2020-04-17", 0.475], ["2020-04-23", 0.475], ["2020-04-25", 0.475], ["2020-05-06", 0.475], ["2020-05-06", 0.473], ["2020-05-19", 0.473], ["2020-05-25", 0.471], ["2020-06-01", 0.471], ["2020-06-08", 0.47], ["2020-06-08", 0.467], ["2020-06-15", 0.466], ["2020-06-16", 0.463], ["2020-06-20", 0.461], ["2020-06-21", 0.46], ["2020-06-29", 0.458], ["2020-07-01", 0.445], ["2020-07-21", 0.445], ["2020-07-23", 0.431], ["2020-07-24", 0.422], ["2020-07-26", 0.42], ["2020-07-27", 0.407], ["2020-08-01", 0.405], ["2020-08-11", 0.403], ["2020-08-11", 0.4], ["2020-08-21", 0.398], ["2020-08-23", 0.374], ["2020-08-29", 0.373], ["2020-08-30", 0.37], ["2020-09-01", 0.364], ["2020-09-02", 0.364], ["2020-09-05", 0.361], ["2020-09-06", 0.36], ["2020-09-20", 0.362], ["2020-09-21", 0.298], ["2020-09-23", 0.293], ["2020-09-24", 0.304], ["2020-09-27", 0.295], ["2020-09-27", 0.29], ["2020-10-09", 0.29], ["2020-10-20", 0.29], ["2020-10-22", 0.286], ["2020-10-26", 0.281], ["2020-11-02", 0.281], ["2020-11-04", 0.28], ["2020-11-06", 0.272], ["2020-11-07", 0.263], ["2020-11-08", 0.263], ["2020-11-10", 0.256], ["2020-11-16", 0.252], ["2020-11-18", 0.252], ["2020-11-23", 0.25], ["2020-11-24", 0.247], ["2020-11-28", 0.247], ["2020-11-30", 0.24], ["2020-12-01", 0.239], ["2020-12-04", 0.239], ["2020-12-07", 0.235], ["2020-12-08", 0.222], ["2020-12-10", 0.219], ["2020-12-11", 0.217], ["2020-12-15", 0.217], ["2020-12-16", 0.215], ["2020-12-22", 0.212], ["2020-12-24", 0.204], ["2020-12-26", 0.202], ["2020-12-29", 0.193], ["2020-12-31", 0.164], ["2020-12-31", 0.149]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3495/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Whole Woman's Health v. Hellersted, is a United States Supreme Court case decided on June 27, 2016. The Court ruled 5–3 that Texas cannot place restrictions on the delivery of abortion services that create an undue burden for women seeking an abortion. The landmark case ensures states must show proof of an actual health benefit when enacting or passing abortion laws.
In December, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton called on the U.S. Supreme Court to dismiss the legal challenge to a Louisiana law that requires abortion providers to obtain hospital admitting privileges within 30 miles of the clinic, and thereby essentially toss out the Whole Woman's Health ruling.
According Vox's Dylan Matthews:
This term, the Supreme Court will hear and rule in the case of June Medical Services LLC v. Gee, a challenge to a Louisiana law requiring abortion providers to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital.
As my colleagues Anna North and Ian Millhiser explain, abortion rights advocates consider this restriction both medically unnecessary (the rate of complications for first-trimester abortions is very low, and you don’t need admitting privileges to send people with complications to a nearby hospital) and designed to shut down abortion clinics.
But more importantly, the Supreme Court already struck down a nearly identical Texas law in 2016’s Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt. The fact that it’s hearing this case so soon after setting a precedent that admitting privileges laws are unconstitutional suggests strongly that the Court — which has since added Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh and lost abortion rights supporter Anthony Kennedy — is ready to overrule Whole Women’s Health and allow more state restrictions on abortion.
I think there’s a real, maybe 20-30 percent chance that the anti-abortion rights majority on the court overrules Roe v. Wade outright, pulling off the Band-aid and eliminating the constitutional right to abortion in one fell swoop, as many GOP politicians have urged them to do with this case. But whether or not Roe falls, I think it’s a near-certainty that Whole Women’s Health will fall.
Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?
This question resolves positively if Vox, the NYT, WaPo, Reuters, Politico, or the Associated Press reports that the Whole Woman's Health v. Hellersted is effectively overturned before the end of 2020. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-23 | 2020-01-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-16", 0.25], ["2020-01-16", 0.25], ["2020-01-16", 0.263], ["2020-01-16", 0.28], ["2020-01-16", 0.28], ["2020-01-16", 0.322], ["2020-01-16", 0.317], ["2020-01-16", 0.365], ["2020-01-16", 0.365], ["2020-01-16", 0.376], ["2020-01-16", 0.379], ["2020-01-16", 0.379], ["2020-01-16", 0.37], ["2020-01-16", 0.343], ["2020-01-16", 0.366], ["2020-01-16", 0.363], ["2020-01-16", 0.372], ["2020-01-16", 0.372], ["2020-01-16", 0.372], ["2020-01-16", 0.374], ["2020-01-17", 0.374], ["2020-01-17", 0.37], ["2020-01-17", 0.382], ["2020-01-17", 0.376], ["2020-01-17", 0.374], ["2020-01-17", 0.377], ["2020-01-17", 0.377], ["2020-01-17", 0.374], ["2020-01-17", 0.376], ["2020-01-17", 0.376], ["2020-01-18", 0.372], ["2020-01-18", 0.372], ["2020-01-18", 0.362], ["2020-01-18", 0.355], ["2020-01-18", 0.363], ["2020-01-18", 0.357], ["2020-01-18", 0.355], ["2020-01-18", 0.355], ["2020-01-18", 0.355], ["2020-01-18", 0.356], ["2020-01-18", 0.349], ["2020-01-19", 0.347], ["2020-01-19", 0.347], ["2020-01-19", 0.364], ["2020-01-20", 0.363], ["2020-01-20", 0.367], ["2020-01-20", 0.37], ["2020-01-20", 0.369], ["2020-01-21", 0.369], ["2020-01-21", 0.371], ["2020-01-22", 0.372], ["2020-01-22", 0.372]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3496/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The Doomsday Clock is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such a as a number of "minutes" to midnight. Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. Since January 2018, the clock has been set at two minutes to midnight.
This question asks: When the Doomsday Clock is next updated, will the time be later than two minutes to midnight?
The clock need not advance by a full minute; any advance will suffice for a positive resolution. If the clock is left unchanged at two minutes to midnight, or if it is moved back, this question resolves negatively. If the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock is to be discontinued before any relevant time changes (or decisions to leave it unchanged) are announced, this question resolves ambiguously.
See also Metaculus' previous forecasts of the Clock's direction for 2017 and for 2019. | true | 2020-01-23 | Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-04-04 | 2020-01-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-16", 0.72], ["2020-01-17", 0.473], ["2020-01-17", 0.412], ["2020-01-18", 0.412], ["2020-01-18", 0.441], ["2020-01-19", 0.441], ["2020-01-19", 0.461], ["2020-01-19", 0.482], ["2020-01-20", 0.486], ["2020-01-20", 0.549], ["2020-01-21", 0.549], ["2020-01-21", 0.546], ["2020-01-21", 0.559], ["2020-01-22", 0.566], ["2020-01-22", 0.604], ["2020-01-23", 0.611], ["2020-01-24", 0.617], ["2020-01-24", 0.598], ["2020-01-25", 0.59], ["2020-01-29", 0.59], ["2020-01-29", 0.579], ["2020-01-30", 0.583], ["2020-01-30", 0.583], ["2020-02-02", 0.579], ["2020-02-02", 0.583], ["2020-02-02", 0.601], ["2020-02-03", 0.601], ["2020-02-03", 0.597], ["2020-02-04", 0.595], ["2020-02-05", 0.602], ["2020-02-05", 0.605], ["2020-02-06", 0.614], ["2020-02-07", 0.622], ["2020-02-07", 0.629], ["2020-02-07", 0.627], ["2020-02-08", 0.629], ["2020-02-08", 0.637], ["2020-02-11", 0.636], ["2020-02-13", 0.636], ["2020-02-14", 0.64], ["2020-02-15", 0.652], ["2020-02-15", 0.655], ["2020-02-15", 0.656], ["2020-02-16", 0.662], ["2020-02-16", 0.662], ["2020-02-18", 0.666], ["2020-02-19", 0.666], ["2020-02-19", 0.68], ["2020-02-22", 0.68], ["2020-02-23", 0.683], ["2020-02-24", 0.696], ["2020-02-24", 0.703], ["2020-02-24", 0.707], ["2020-02-25", 0.714], ["2020-02-26", 0.714], ["2020-02-26", 0.758], ["2020-02-27", 0.762], ["2020-02-28", 0.765], ["2020-02-28", 0.773], ["2020-02-29", 0.775], ["2020-02-29", 0.778], ["2020-03-02", 0.778], ["2020-03-02", 0.782], ["2020-03-03", 0.782], ["2020-03-04", 0.786], ["2020-03-09", 0.786], ["2020-03-11", 0.789], ["2020-03-11", 0.789], ["2020-03-13", 0.772], ["2020-03-16", 0.773], ["2020-03-17", 0.776], ["2020-03-18", 0.776], ["2020-03-18", 0.776], ["2020-03-20", 0.779], ["2020-03-20", 0.78], ["2020-03-21", 0.78], ["2020-03-21", 0.783], ["2020-03-22", 0.784], ["2020-03-23", 0.784], ["2020-03-23", 0.788], ["2020-03-25", 0.788], ["2020-03-25", 0.786], ["2020-03-26", 0.787], ["2020-03-26", 0.787], ["2020-03-27", 0.796], ["2020-03-28", 0.8], ["2020-03-28", 0.798], ["2020-03-28", 0.798], ["2020-03-29", 0.802], ["2020-03-29", 0.805], ["2020-03-30", 0.807], ["2020-03-30", 0.81], ["2020-03-31", 0.81], ["2020-04-01", 0.811], ["2020-04-02", 0.817], ["2020-04-02", 0.822], ["2020-04-02", 0.823], ["2020-04-02", 0.826], ["2020-04-03", 0.826], ["2020-04-03", 0.826], ["2020-04-03", 0.833]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3499/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On the 13th of December 2019, Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the UK Labour party announced that he would be standing down from the position. Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips and Emily Thornberry are all standing to be the next leader. The results should be announced on the 4th of April 2020.
Question: Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?
If there is more than one Labour leadership contest in 2020, this question resolves according to the first one. This question will resolve as ambiguous if no one has won a Labour leadership contest by 31/12/2020. | true | 2020-04-03 | Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-07 | 2020-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-22", 0.15], ["2020-01-24", 0.09], ["2020-01-27", 0.108], ["2020-01-29", 0.096], ["2020-02-01", 0.094], ["2020-02-01", 0.109], ["2020-02-06", 0.105], ["2020-02-11", 0.103], ["2020-02-13", 0.112], ["2020-02-15", 0.101], ["2020-02-17", 0.101], ["2020-02-20", 0.101], ["2020-02-21", 0.096], ["2020-02-26", 0.096], ["2020-02-26", 0.091], ["2020-03-02", 0.099], ["2020-03-05", 0.099], ["2020-03-08", 0.094], ["2020-03-09", 0.092], ["2020-03-11", 0.095], ["2020-03-13", 0.095], ["2020-03-17", 0.114], ["2020-03-18", 0.126], ["2020-03-22", 0.126], ["2020-03-23", 0.135], ["2020-03-25", 0.132], ["2020-03-28", 0.142], ["2020-03-29", 0.142], ["2020-03-31", 0.139], ["2020-04-02", 0.139], ["2020-04-03", 0.138], ["2020-04-05", 0.138], ["2020-04-06", 0.138], ["2020-04-08", 0.136], ["2020-04-10", 0.134], ["2020-04-12", 0.134], ["2020-04-13", 0.134], ["2020-04-16", 0.115], ["2020-04-18", 0.114], ["2020-04-20", 0.113], ["2020-04-22", 0.112], ["2020-04-24", 0.111], ["2020-04-28", 0.11], ["2020-04-30", 0.112], ["2020-05-02", 0.115], ["2020-05-05", 0.11], ["2020-05-08", 0.111], ["2020-05-10", 0.111], ["2020-05-16", 0.11], ["2020-05-19", 0.115], ["2020-05-20", 0.113], ["2020-05-23", 0.113], ["2020-05-26", 0.112], ["2020-05-27", 0.112], ["2020-05-29", 0.112], ["2020-06-01", 0.112], ["2020-06-01", 0.111], ["2020-06-04", 0.111], ["2020-06-07", 0.112], ["2020-06-09", 0.114], ["2020-06-12", 0.114], ["2020-06-16", 0.114], ["2020-06-17", 0.115], ["2020-06-19", 0.116], ["2020-06-22", 0.116], ["2020-06-24", 0.116], ["2020-06-26", 0.116], ["2020-06-27", 0.119], ["2020-06-29", 0.121], ["2020-07-02", 0.12], ["2020-07-04", 0.12], ["2020-07-06", 0.121], ["2020-07-10", 0.121], ["2020-07-13", 0.122], ["2020-07-15", 0.121], ["2020-07-18", 0.121], ["2020-07-24", 0.121], ["2020-07-25", 0.121], ["2020-07-31", 0.12], ["2020-08-02", 0.119], ["2020-08-08", 0.118], ["2020-08-10", 0.114], ["2020-08-13", 0.114], ["2020-08-17", 0.113], ["2020-08-20", 0.111], ["2020-08-22", 0.111], ["2020-08-24", 0.109], ["2020-08-30", 0.109], ["2020-09-01", 0.107], ["2020-09-02", 0.106], ["2020-09-05", 0.105], ["2020-09-09", 0.105], ["2020-09-12", 0.104], ["2020-09-14", 0.103], ["2020-09-16", 0.101], ["2020-09-18", 0.1], ["2020-09-21", 0.099], ["2020-09-24", 0.102], ["2020-09-27", 0.101], ["2020-09-29", 0.101], ["2020-10-01", 0.092]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3501/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Since 1980 (10 presidential elections), this has happened three times (Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992, and Ross Perot in 1996). It didn't happen in 2016 with either Stein or Johnson. Will it happen in 2020?
"Third-party candidate" is defined as a candidate that was not nominated by either the US Democratic or US Republican party. Resolution by credible media report as of 9 pm 2020-11-17 California time. | true | 2020-10-01 | Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-09 | 2020-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-22", 0.6], ["2020-01-23", 0.682], ["2020-01-24", 0.702], ["2020-01-26", 0.709], ["2020-01-27", 0.709], ["2020-02-01", 0.706], ["2020-02-01", 0.706], ["2020-02-06", 0.712], ["2020-02-06", 0.712], ["2020-02-11", 0.703], ["2020-02-12", 0.703], ["2020-02-13", 0.695], ["2020-02-15", 0.695], ["2020-02-17", 0.666], ["2020-02-18", 0.648], ["2020-02-20", 0.654], ["2020-02-23", 0.653], ["2020-02-25", 0.651], ["2020-03-02", 0.648], ["2020-03-02", 0.643], ["2020-03-04", 0.649], ["2020-03-05", 0.649], ["2020-03-07", 0.649], ["2020-03-08", 0.646], ["2020-03-09", 0.646], ["2020-03-11", 0.639], ["2020-03-13", 0.639], ["2020-03-13", 0.643], ["2020-03-16", 0.643], ["2020-03-18", 0.643], ["2020-03-20", 0.644], ["2020-03-23", 0.644], ["2020-03-27", 0.644], ["2020-03-28", 0.645], ["2020-03-29", 0.646], ["2020-03-31", 0.638], ["2020-04-02", 0.645], ["2020-04-03", 0.651], ["2020-04-05", 0.651], ["2020-04-08", 0.652], ["2020-04-12", 0.652], ["2020-04-14", 0.654], ["2020-04-16", 0.654], ["2020-04-17", 0.656], ["2020-04-23", 0.656], ["2020-04-23", 0.658], ["2020-04-25", 0.658], ["2020-05-05", 0.66], ["2020-05-06", 0.662], ["2020-05-07", 0.663], ["2020-05-09", 0.662], ["2020-05-28", 0.662], ["2020-05-28", 0.674], ["2020-06-01", 0.674], ["2020-06-02", 0.679], ["2020-06-04", 0.684], ["2020-06-09", 0.686], ["2020-06-15", 0.687], ["2020-06-18", 0.69], ["2020-06-19", 0.69], ["2020-06-21", 0.695], ["2020-06-23", 0.695], ["2020-06-23", 0.699], ["2020-07-13", 0.699], ["2020-07-15", 0.706], ["2020-07-16", 0.706], ["2020-07-17", 0.706], ["2020-07-19", 0.706], ["2020-07-23", 0.709], ["2020-07-29", 0.709], ["2020-07-31", 0.709], ["2020-08-03", 0.709], ["2020-08-04", 0.71], ["2020-08-12", 0.712], ["2020-08-15", 0.713], ["2020-08-17", 0.719], ["2020-08-19", 0.721], ["2020-08-20", 0.728], ["2020-08-27", 0.731], ["2020-08-27", 0.731], ["2020-08-29", 0.731], ["2020-08-30", 0.73], ["2020-09-01", 0.732], ["2020-09-04", 0.732], ["2020-09-04", 0.733], ["2020-09-07", 0.733], ["2020-09-07", 0.735], ["2020-09-10", 0.737], ["2020-09-12", 0.74], ["2020-09-14", 0.74], ["2020-09-15", 0.758], ["2020-09-17", 0.759], ["2020-09-19", 0.759], ["2020-09-20", 0.76], ["2020-09-21", 0.765], ["2020-09-24", 0.765], ["2020-09-24", 0.767], ["2020-09-26", 0.769], ["2020-09-27", 0.771], ["2020-09-29", 0.779], ["2020-10-01", 0.8]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3503/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Currently the US Democratic party holds 232 seats and the Republican Party holds 197. However, all of the seats will be up for re-election in 2020. You need 218 to have a majority. Will the Democrats keep their majority?
This resolves positively if the Speaker of the House of Representatives elected at the start of the 2021 congressional session is a Democrat. | true | 2020-10-01 | Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-22 | 2020-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-21", 0.15], ["2020-01-24", 0.179], ["2020-01-26", 0.154], ["2020-01-30", 0.133], ["2020-02-01", 0.156], ["2020-02-06", 0.159], ["2020-02-08", 0.158], ["2020-02-11", 0.17], ["2020-02-13", 0.17], ["2020-02-15", 0.167], ["2020-02-17", 0.154], ["2020-02-20", 0.153], ["2020-02-23", 0.153], ["2020-02-25", 0.163], ["2020-03-02", 0.161], ["2020-03-05", 0.162], ["2020-03-08", 0.18], ["2020-03-11", 0.176], ["2020-03-13", 0.183], ["2020-03-16", 0.183], ["2020-03-19", 0.176], ["2020-03-23", 0.176], ["2020-03-25", 0.174], ["2020-03-30", 0.173], ["2020-04-02", 0.174], ["2020-04-03", 0.174], ["2020-04-05", 0.174], ["2020-04-15", 0.176], ["2020-04-17", 0.177], ["2020-04-23", 0.177], ["2020-04-26", 0.206], ["2020-04-28", 0.206], ["2020-04-30", 0.203], ["2020-05-01", 0.204], ["2020-05-06", 0.202], ["2020-05-08", 0.241], ["2020-05-10", 0.239], ["2020-05-12", 0.243], ["2020-05-13", 0.243], ["2020-05-15", 0.239], ["2020-05-17", 0.239], ["2020-05-18", 0.237], ["2020-05-21", 0.238], ["2020-05-24", 0.238], ["2020-05-25", 0.239], ["2020-05-28", 0.24], ["2020-05-31", 0.244], ["2020-06-02", 0.251], ["2020-06-04", 0.25], ["2020-06-06", 0.25], ["2020-06-08", 0.252], ["2020-06-10", 0.263], ["2020-06-12", 0.265], ["2020-06-13", 0.288], ["2020-06-16", 0.292], ["2020-06-18", 0.292], ["2020-06-19", 0.295], ["2020-06-22", 0.301], ["2020-06-24", 0.302], ["2020-06-25", 0.303], ["2020-06-28", 0.307], ["2020-06-29", 0.307], ["2020-07-01", 0.31], ["2020-07-04", 0.31], ["2020-07-07", 0.318], ["2020-07-11", 0.32], ["2020-07-13", 0.323], ["2020-07-16", 0.333], ["2020-07-18", 0.34], ["2020-07-19", 0.341], ["2020-07-21", 0.342], ["2020-07-23", 0.343], ["2020-07-24", 0.345], ["2020-07-26", 0.348], ["2020-07-31", 0.348], ["2020-08-03", 0.348], ["2020-08-05", 0.349], ["2020-08-08", 0.359], ["2020-08-10", 0.36], ["2020-08-13", 0.361], ["2020-08-15", 0.361], ["2020-08-17", 0.362], ["2020-08-20", 0.364], ["2020-08-22", 0.363], ["2020-08-25", 0.365], ["2020-08-27", 0.368], ["2020-08-28", 0.368], ["2020-08-30", 0.37], ["2020-09-01", 0.371], ["2020-09-03", 0.37], ["2020-09-05", 0.37], ["2020-09-07", 0.371], ["2020-09-11", 0.371], ["2020-09-13", 0.372], ["2020-09-15", 0.374], ["2020-09-18", 0.375], ["2020-09-21", 0.378], ["2020-09-24", 0.396], ["2020-09-27", 0.4], ["2020-09-30", 0.407], ["2020-09-30", 0.422]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3504/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In order to pass one's own agenda in US politics, it is very helpful to have both halves of Congress and the Presidency under your party's control. Will the US Democratic Party be able to do this in 2020?
This resolves yes if the US Democratic Party has (a) at least 218 Representatives, (b) at least 50 Senators, and (c) the US Presidency as of 9 pm California time on the 21st of January 2021. Independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats will still count toward the Democrat total. | true | 2020-10-01 | Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-15 | 2020-01-18 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-23", 0.91], ["2020-01-25", 0.657], ["2020-01-26", 0.63], ["2020-01-29", 0.618], ["2020-01-31", 0.614], ["2020-02-01", 0.617], ["2020-02-04", 0.574], ["2020-02-07", 0.585], ["2020-02-08", 0.561], ["2020-02-10", 0.561], ["2020-02-11", 0.548], ["2020-02-13", 0.532], ["2020-02-14", 0.532], ["2020-02-16", 0.512], ["2020-02-18", 0.519], ["2020-02-26", 0.526], ["2020-03-08", 0.528], ["2020-03-10", 0.528], ["2020-03-12", 0.527], ["2020-03-14", 0.527], ["2020-03-14", 0.526], ["2020-03-17", 0.524], ["2020-03-21", 0.525], ["2020-03-23", 0.527], ["2020-03-26", 0.529], ["2020-03-28", 0.534], ["2020-03-30", 0.532], ["2020-04-01", 0.534], ["2020-04-03", 0.541], ["2020-04-05", 0.541], ["2020-04-10", 0.542], ["2020-04-12", 0.545], ["2020-04-13", 0.546], ["2020-04-16", 0.545], ["2020-04-17", 0.545], ["2020-04-25", 0.545], ["2020-04-29", 0.545], ["2020-05-01", 0.542], ["2020-05-16", 0.542], ["2020-05-19", 0.539], ["2020-05-19", 0.541], ["2020-05-27", 0.541], ["2020-05-28", 0.544], ["2020-06-02", 0.544], ["2020-06-03", 0.543], ["2020-06-06", 0.545], ["2020-06-08", 0.541], ["2020-06-12", 0.543], ["2020-06-12", 0.546], ["2020-06-16", 0.543], ["2020-06-18", 0.543], ["2020-06-19", 0.539], ["2020-06-23", 0.537], ["2020-06-28", 0.537], ["2020-07-02", 0.538], ["2020-07-04", 0.541], ["2020-07-06", 0.542], ["2020-07-08", 0.54], ["2020-07-10", 0.541], ["2020-07-14", 0.544], ["2020-07-25", 0.544], ["2020-07-28", 0.546], ["2020-07-28", 0.546], ["2020-08-05", 0.546], ["2020-08-14", 0.549], ["2020-08-14", 0.551], ["2020-08-18", 0.551], ["2020-08-19", 0.551], ["2020-08-23", 0.554], ["2020-08-25", 0.554], ["2020-08-29", 0.554], ["2020-08-31", 0.557], ["2020-09-02", 0.562], ["2020-09-04", 0.555], ["2020-09-05", 0.558], ["2020-09-08", 0.561], ["2020-09-17", 0.561], ["2020-09-18", 0.563], ["2020-09-21", 0.562], ["2020-09-23", 0.561], ["2020-09-26", 0.563], ["2020-09-28", 0.564], ["2020-09-30", 0.564], ["2020-10-01", 0.566], ["2020-10-03", 0.589], ["2020-10-05", 0.594], ["2020-10-06", 0.594], ["2020-10-09", 0.599], ["2020-10-10", 0.602], ["2020-10-11", 0.602], ["2020-10-13", 0.602], ["2020-10-15", 0.604], ["2020-10-17", 0.605], ["2020-10-19", 0.605], ["2020-10-22", 0.605], ["2020-10-23", 0.606], ["2020-10-26", 0.605], ["2020-10-26", 0.606], ["2020-10-29", 0.605], ["2020-10-31", 0.607], ["2020-11-01", 0.608]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3513/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Donald Trump has previously claimed that the 2016 Presidential election against him was “rigged” (though he won anyway). Trump has also made claims of widespread voting fraud in the 2016 election. Will he repeat some of these claims in 2020 and use them to avoid conceding the election? (Assuming he doesn't win.)
This question will not be scored (resolve "ambiguous") if within the first thirteen days after the date of the election, there are not at least seven consecutive days where the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election.
This question will resolve "yes" if within the first thirteen days after the date of the election, there are at least seven consecutive days where (a) the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election and (b) Trump fails to have conceded the election (or stays in a state of having withdrawn a previous concession).
This question will resolve "no" if within the first thirteen days after the date of the election there are at least seven consecutive days where the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election but there is not also a seven consecutive day stretch where both (a) the AP continues to maintain that Trump lost the election and (b) Trump fails to have conceded the election (or stays in a state of having withdrawn a previous concession).
For the purpose of this question, a "day after the date of the election" is a 24-hour period after 00:00 2020-11-04 US Eastern time. | true | 2020-11-01 | If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-01-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-22", 0.65], ["2020-01-23", 0.624], ["2020-01-26", 0.603], ["2020-01-29", 0.599], ["2020-01-30", 0.608], ["2020-02-03", 0.617], ["2020-02-10", 0.617], ["2020-02-11", 0.609], ["2020-02-14", 0.609], ["2020-02-18", 0.598], ["2020-02-20", 0.598], ["2020-02-23", 0.596], ["2020-02-24", 0.596], ["2020-03-02", 0.6], ["2020-03-05", 0.589], ["2020-03-07", 0.589], ["2020-03-09", 0.59], ["2020-03-11", 0.587], ["2020-03-13", 0.59], ["2020-03-15", 0.592], ["2020-03-17", 0.592], ["2020-03-20", 0.589], ["2020-03-23", 0.589], ["2020-03-25", 0.598], ["2020-03-26", 0.598], ["2020-03-31", 0.597], ["2020-04-03", 0.597], ["2020-04-05", 0.597], ["2020-04-08", 0.595], ["2020-04-11", 0.6], ["2020-04-14", 0.601], ["2020-04-16", 0.604], ["2020-04-17", 0.604], ["2020-04-20", 0.603], ["2020-04-23", 0.604], ["2020-04-25", 0.604], ["2020-04-29", 0.602], ["2020-05-10", 0.606], ["2020-05-24", 0.607], ["2020-05-28", 0.61], ["2020-05-28", 0.612], ["2020-06-01", 0.613], ["2020-06-04", 0.617], ["2020-06-07", 0.614], ["2020-06-13", 0.61], ["2020-06-15", 0.611], ["2020-06-18", 0.611], ["2020-06-21", 0.613], ["2020-06-23", 0.615], ["2020-06-29", 0.612], ["2020-07-02", 0.628], ["2020-07-04", 0.63], ["2020-07-10", 0.631], ["2020-07-15", 0.632], ["2020-07-17", 0.661], ["2020-07-19", 0.664], ["2020-07-28", 0.665], ["2020-08-11", 0.665], ["2020-08-20", 0.666], ["2020-08-26", 0.67], ["2020-08-29", 0.67], ["2020-09-01", 0.67], ["2020-09-04", 0.672], ["2020-09-16", 0.674], ["2020-09-16", 0.675], ["2020-09-25", 0.676], ["2020-09-30", 0.678], ["2020-10-04", 0.68], ["2020-10-06", 0.681], ["2020-10-09", 0.688], ["2020-10-11", 0.728], ["2020-10-15", 0.731], ["2020-10-15", 0.733], ["2020-10-20", 0.733], ["2020-10-22", 0.74], ["2020-10-23", 0.74], ["2020-10-25", 0.742], ["2020-10-28", 0.747], ["2020-11-03", 0.749], ["2020-11-05", 0.754], ["2020-11-08", 0.762], ["2020-11-11", 0.787], ["2020-11-14", 0.793], ["2020-11-16", 0.796], ["2020-11-18", 0.798], ["2020-11-21", 0.8], ["2020-11-24", 0.8], ["2020-11-26", 0.8], ["2020-11-28", 0.801], ["2020-12-01", 0.801], ["2020-12-07", 0.804], ["2020-12-08", 0.797], ["2020-12-11", 0.8], ["2020-12-14", 0.8], ["2020-12-16", 0.805], ["2020-12-19", 0.804], ["2020-12-21", 0.804], ["2020-12-24", 0.808], ["2020-12-27", 0.811], ["2020-12-30", 0.822], ["2020-12-31", 0.865]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3516/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Beyond Meat is a Los Angeles-based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products became available across the United States in 2012.
As of July 2019, Beyond Meat had a market value of US$11.7 billion, following a value of $3.8 billion on the day of its initial public offering, May 2, 2019.
According the Vox's Kelsey Piper, Beyond meat (and the plant-based market more generally) will likely perform well this year:
This prediction is really a proxy for, “Plant-based meats will continue to grow, consumer demand for them will remain strong, and the leading companies in the business will end the year in a good position,” and that seems likely to me. The trends that drove plant-based meat’s success in 2019 — consumer interest, concern with sustainability, and new, tastier plant-based options — are still in effect, and Beyond Meat is still enjoying name recognition and the benefits of being the most established purely plant-based company. I expect a good year for them. — KP
Will Beyond Meat outperform the S&P500 ETF, $SPY, in 2020?
This question resolves positively if, according to Google Finance $SPY gained less value (in percentage points) than $BYND, in the calendar year 2020. Note that we're only concerned in changes in prices here, not total returns (hence dividend payments will not directly count toward performance).
This question resolves ambiguously if Beyond Meat goes private, is acquired or otherwise merges with another company. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-01-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-02", 0.2], ["2020-02-02", 0.33], ["2020-02-02", 0.215], ["2020-02-02", 0.28], ["2020-02-02", 0.36], ["2020-02-02", 0.36], ["2020-02-02", 0.348], ["2020-02-03", 0.307], ["2020-02-03", 0.327], ["2020-02-03", 0.327], ["2020-02-03", 0.359], ["2020-02-03", 0.351], ["2020-02-03", 0.355], ["2020-02-03", 0.355], ["2020-02-03", 0.351], ["2020-02-03", 0.339], ["2020-02-04", 0.347], ["2020-02-04", 0.347], ["2020-02-04", 0.337], ["2020-02-04", 0.329], ["2020-02-04", 0.323], ["2020-02-04", 0.318], ["2020-02-04", 0.318], ["2020-02-04", 0.316], ["2020-02-04", 0.312], ["2020-02-04", 0.311], ["2020-02-04", 0.314], ["2020-02-05", 0.314], ["2020-02-05", 0.308], ["2020-02-05", 0.308], ["2020-02-05", 0.312], ["2020-02-05", 0.317], ["2020-02-06", 0.325], ["2020-02-06", 0.32], ["2020-02-07", 0.32]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3578/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In 2019, Iran suffered a trio of failed rocket launches, culminating with an explosion on the launchpad in August. Recent imagery gathered by commercial satellites may indicate that Iran is preparing for another attempt from the Imam Khomeini Space Center in northern Iran.
In addition, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, the Iranian communications minister, recently stated on Twitter that the country is preparing to launch the Zafar-1 and Zafar-2 communications satellites. They are likely going to be launched using either a <a href="Safir-1 or Safir-2 rocket. The two rockets have a cumulative four successes and four failures in the last twelve years of use.
Will Iran get neither of the two satellites into space by 1 January 2021??
Resolution:
This question will resolve positive if Iran fails to deploy both the Zafar-1 and Zafar-2 satellites into orbit by 1 January 2021. Note that the successful deployment of either Zafar-1 or Zarfar-2 will result in a negative resolution. Failure to launch any missions, regardless of reason, will also be counted as positive resolution of the question. If either of these satellites is successfully deployed, the question resolves negative.
A satellite is deployed if it is launched into space and successfully separates from its launch vehicle and any payload adapters, and remains in orbit for at least 24 hours thereafter.
Successful operation of either satellite is irrelevant to negative resolution. i.e., If Iran successfully launches either satellite into orbit, but they fail to perform their intended functions, the question will still resolve negative.
Resolution will be confirmed by credible international media report and not solely the announcement of the government of Iran.
This question will be retroactively closed twenty-four hours prior to the first attempted launch of a Zafar satellite. | true | 2020-02-08 | Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-02 | 2020-01-31 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-04", 0.66], ["2020-02-04", 0.58], ["2020-02-04", 0.58], ["2020-02-04", 0.61], ["2020-02-04", 0.592], ["2020-02-04", 0.579], ["2020-02-04", 0.579], ["2020-02-05", 0.538], ["2020-02-05", 0.538], ["2020-02-05", 0.522], ["2020-02-05", 0.539], ["2020-02-06", 0.512], ["2020-02-07", 0.485], ["2020-02-07", 0.492], ["2020-02-07", 0.491], ["2020-02-07", 0.491], ["2020-02-08", 0.459], ["2020-02-08", 0.459], ["2020-02-09", 0.458], ["2020-02-11", 0.451], ["2020-02-11", 0.448], ["2020-02-12", 0.449], ["2020-02-13", 0.449], ["2020-02-14", 0.457], ["2020-02-15", 0.44], ["2020-02-18", 0.436], ["2020-02-19", 0.436], ["2020-02-19", 0.436], ["2020-02-21", 0.426], ["2020-03-04", 0.426], ["2020-03-04", 0.414], ["2020-03-06", 0.41], ["2020-03-07", 0.408], ["2020-03-07", 0.392], ["2020-03-07", 0.398], ["2020-03-07", 0.394], ["2020-03-07", 0.394], ["2020-03-07", 0.391], ["2020-03-07", 0.385], ["2020-03-08", 0.383], ["2020-03-08", 0.369], ["2020-03-08", 0.366], ["2020-03-09", 0.366], ["2020-03-09", 0.355], ["2020-03-09", 0.355], ["2020-03-10", 0.345], ["2020-03-10", 0.345], ["2020-03-11", 0.342], ["2020-03-11", 0.336], ["2020-03-11", 0.336], ["2020-03-11", 0.331], ["2020-03-12", 0.326], ["2020-03-13", 0.317], ["2020-03-14", 0.317], ["2020-03-16", 0.316], ["2020-03-16", 0.312], ["2020-03-16", 0.309], ["2020-03-16", 0.31], ["2020-03-16", 0.31], ["2020-03-17", 0.31], ["2020-03-18", 0.309], ["2020-03-18", 0.307], ["2020-03-19", 0.307], ["2020-03-20", 0.306], ["2020-03-20", 0.306], ["2020-03-21", 0.307], ["2020-03-21", 0.299], ["2020-03-22", 0.299], ["2020-03-22", 0.299], ["2020-03-23", 0.301], ["2020-03-24", 0.301], ["2020-03-24", 0.296], ["2020-03-24", 0.296], ["2020-03-25", 0.277], ["2020-03-25", 0.277], ["2020-03-25", 0.275], ["2020-03-25", 0.275], ["2020-03-26", 0.271], ["2020-03-26", 0.271], ["2020-03-26", 0.255], ["2020-03-26", 0.26], ["2020-03-28", 0.26], ["2020-03-28", 0.263], ["2020-03-28", 0.263], ["2020-03-28", 0.26], ["2020-03-28", 0.263], ["2020-03-28", 0.266], ["2020-03-29", 0.266], ["2020-03-29", 0.263], ["2020-03-29", 0.257], ["2020-03-30", 0.254], ["2020-03-30", 0.254], ["2020-03-30", 0.248], ["2020-03-31", 0.253], ["2020-03-31", 0.245], ["2020-03-31", 0.249], ["2020-03-31", 0.248], ["2020-03-31", 0.238], ["2020-03-31", 0.236], ["2020-03-31", 0.236], ["2020-03-31", 0.252]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3589/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Conventional rocket engines (i.e. with bell nozzles) achieve optimal performance at exactly one pressure. Aerospike engines, by contrast, exhibit higher efficiencies at a wide range of atmospheric conditions. This makes them ideal for Single-Stage-To-Orbit vehicles. In spite of this promise, no Aerospike engine has ever launched a rocket.
Aerospace firm ARCASpace is looking to change this. They've spent two years developing an Aerospike-based launch platform (which they've documentd in a quirky youtube series called "Flight of the Aerospike"). It appears that ARCA's Aerospike-powered Launch Assist System (LAS) is ready to be tested, with a launch scheduled in April 2020.
Will ARCA successfully launch an Aerospike-propelled rocket by June 1st, 2020?
The launch is scheduled for April, but we'll give them until June in case they need to scrub for better weather.
For the purposes of this question, the launch will be considered a success if ARCA reports that the rocket reached an altitude of at least 1000 meters (including prior to any rapid unscheduled disassembly). | true | 2020-04-01 | Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-31 | 2020-02-03 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-08", 0.4], ["2020-02-08", 0.205], ["2020-02-08", 0.267], ["2020-02-09", 0.3], ["2020-02-09", 0.304], ["2020-02-09", 0.329], ["2020-02-10", 0.326], ["2020-02-11", 0.328], ["2020-02-11", 0.362], ["2020-02-11", 0.35], ["2020-02-12", 0.34], ["2020-02-12", 0.344], ["2020-02-13", 0.344], ["2020-02-13", 0.359], ["2020-02-14", 0.359], ["2020-02-15", 0.337], ["2020-02-15", 0.34], ["2020-02-15", 0.357], ["2020-02-16", 0.357], ["2020-02-16", 0.366], ["2020-02-17", 0.376], ["2020-02-17", 0.366], ["2020-02-18", 0.363], ["2020-02-19", 0.346], ["2020-02-19", 0.346], ["2020-02-20", 0.358], ["2020-02-20", 0.351], ["2020-02-21", 0.352], ["2020-02-21", 0.346], ["2020-02-22", 0.351], ["2020-02-23", 0.349], ["2020-02-23", 0.35], ["2020-02-23", 0.363], ["2020-02-25", 0.363], ["2020-02-26", 0.367], ["2020-02-26", 0.367], ["2020-02-27", 0.367], ["2020-02-28", 0.367], ["2020-02-28", 0.377], ["2020-02-29", 0.378], ["2020-02-29", 0.38], ["2020-02-29", 0.387], ["2020-03-02", 0.387], ["2020-03-03", 0.388], ["2020-03-04", 0.4], ["2020-03-04", 0.489], ["2020-03-05", 0.504], ["2020-03-05", 0.536], ["2020-03-06", 0.551], ["2020-03-06", 0.553], ["2020-03-07", 0.56], ["2020-03-07", 0.56], ["2020-03-08", 0.571], ["2020-03-08", 0.579], ["2020-03-09", 0.579], ["2020-03-09", 0.585], ["2020-03-09", 0.589], ["2020-03-11", 0.592], ["2020-03-11", 0.599], ["2020-03-12", 0.599], ["2020-03-13", 0.629], ["2020-03-13", 0.63], ["2020-03-13", 0.668], ["2020-03-14", 0.739], ["2020-03-14", 0.747], ["2020-03-14", 0.773], ["2020-03-15", 0.794], ["2020-03-15", 0.801], ["2020-03-16", 0.803], ["2020-03-16", 0.799], ["2020-03-17", 0.803], ["2020-03-17", 0.807], ["2020-03-18", 0.817], ["2020-03-18", 0.819], ["2020-03-18", 0.819], ["2020-03-19", 0.818], ["2020-03-19", 0.819], ["2020-03-20", 0.823], ["2020-03-20", 0.835], ["2020-03-21", 0.838], ["2020-03-21", 0.842], ["2020-03-21", 0.852], ["2020-03-22", 0.856], ["2020-03-22", 0.861], ["2020-03-23", 0.862], ["2020-03-23", 0.862], ["2020-03-24", 0.868], ["2020-03-24", 0.869], ["2020-03-25", 0.875], ["2020-03-26", 0.876], ["2020-03-26", 0.876], ["2020-03-26", 0.876], ["2020-03-27", 0.878], ["2020-03-27", 0.878], ["2020-03-27", 0.879], ["2020-03-28", 0.88], ["2020-03-29", 0.888], ["2020-03-29", 0.897], ["2020-03-30", 0.899], ["2020-03-30", 0.903], ["2020-03-31", 0.904]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3595/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | As of 2020-02-03, the outbreak of COVID-19 is widespread within China, and continuing to grow rapidly, particularly at the outbreak's epicenter, Hubei province. That said, Hubei is far from the most populous or most densely populated province in China, let alone the rest of the world. Another larger population could overtake Hubei as the location with the largest infected population.
Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?
This question resolves positively if, at any time in 2020, a credible information source indicates that the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in any sub-national political unit exceeds that of China's Hubei province.
The information sources for this outbreak are still fluid at the time of writing. Some possibilities include the WHO COVID-19 Dashboard, the JHU CSSE 2019-COVID-19 dashboard, and the relevant WHO Situation Reports. Other sources may be assessed at the Metaculus' admins judgement.
The location need not necessarily be Chinese, or a province. If, for example, a large outbreak is reported in a specific city (other than a city already in Hubei Province, of course), that city may be the location which triggers the positive resolution. (This is merely a guiding example, and not the only specific alternative. Any sub-national political unit may qualify, provided it meets the criterion that it has more confirmed cases of COVID-19 within the timespan of this question.)
This question resolves negatively if after midnight (EST) on 2021-01-01, no credible information source has reported a greater number of confirmed infections in any subnational political unit than the number reported in China's Hubei province. | true | 2020-04-06 | Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-04 | 2020-02-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-10", 0.15], ["2020-02-10", 0.34], ["2020-02-10", 0.34], ["2020-02-10", 0.364], ["2020-02-11", 0.374], ["2020-02-11", 0.362], ["2020-02-11", 0.362], ["2020-02-11", 0.434], ["2020-02-11", 0.398], ["2020-02-12", 0.398], ["2020-02-12", 0.367], ["2020-02-12", 0.376], ["2020-02-12", 0.371], ["2020-02-12", 0.378], ["2020-02-13", 0.354], ["2020-02-13", 0.354], ["2020-02-13", 0.348], ["2020-02-13", 0.332], ["2020-02-13", 0.33], ["2020-02-13", 0.339], ["2020-02-14", 0.339], ["2020-02-14", 0.341], ["2020-02-14", 0.349], ["2020-02-14", 0.348], ["2020-02-14", 0.353], ["2020-02-15", 0.354], ["2020-02-15", 0.356], ["2020-02-15", 0.355], ["2020-02-15", 0.359], ["2020-02-15", 0.36], ["2020-02-16", 0.353], ["2020-02-16", 0.352], ["2020-02-16", 0.351], ["2020-02-16", 0.35], ["2020-02-17", 0.344], ["2020-02-17", 0.343], ["2020-02-17", 0.342], ["2020-02-17", 0.34], ["2020-02-17", 0.334], ["2020-02-17", 0.335], ["2020-02-18", 0.336], ["2020-02-18", 0.333], ["2020-02-18", 0.335], ["2020-02-18", 0.328], ["2020-02-18", 0.328], ["2020-02-18", 0.331], ["2020-02-19", 0.33], ["2020-02-19", 0.332], ["2020-02-19", 0.336], ["2020-02-19", 0.342], ["2020-02-20", 0.328], ["2020-02-20", 0.325], ["2020-02-20", 0.319], ["2020-02-20", 0.318], ["2020-02-20", 0.312], ["2020-02-20", 0.311], ["2020-02-21", 0.303], ["2020-02-21", 0.303], ["2020-02-21", 0.298], ["2020-02-21", 0.297], ["2020-02-21", 0.297], ["2020-02-22", 0.307], ["2020-02-22", 0.311], ["2020-02-22", 0.311], ["2020-02-23", 0.313], ["2020-02-23", 0.312], ["2020-02-23", 0.31], ["2020-02-23", 0.315], ["2020-02-24", 0.315], ["2020-02-24", 0.316], ["2020-02-24", 0.319], ["2020-02-24", 0.32], ["2020-02-24", 0.325], ["2020-02-25", 0.325], ["2020-02-25", 0.329], ["2020-02-25", 0.329], ["2020-02-25", 0.336], ["2020-02-25", 0.34], ["2020-02-26", 0.343], ["2020-02-26", 0.343], ["2020-02-26", 0.344], ["2020-02-26", 0.343], ["2020-02-26", 0.343], ["2020-02-26", 0.341], ["2020-02-27", 0.338], ["2020-02-27", 0.336], ["2020-02-27", 0.328], ["2020-02-27", 0.329], ["2020-02-27", 0.322], ["2020-02-27", 0.32], ["2020-02-28", 0.318], ["2020-02-28", 0.316], ["2020-02-28", 0.316], ["2020-02-28", 0.315], ["2020-02-28", 0.313], ["2020-02-29", 0.308], ["2020-02-29", 0.297], ["2020-02-29", 0.287], ["2020-02-29", 0.281], ["2020-02-29", 0.278], ["2020-03-01", 0.273]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3607/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Former Mayor of New York City and current Democratic candidate Michael Bloomberg (b. 1942) has mounted a campaign with no precedent in US history. For one thing, he has refused to accept contributions and is instead self-funding his campaign; since entering the race in December last year, he has outspent all the other candidates combined. Because he has received no external funding, Bloomberg was also automatically disqualified from participating in all of the primary debates. In addition, Bloomberg has chosen not to compete in any of the first four states, regarded by many as critical for building momentum. His strategy is instead to focus on "Super Tuesday", the day—March 3rd—when the greatest number of U.S. states hold primary elections and caucuses, and when more delegates are at stake than on any other day during the primaries.
Bloomberg's popularity has surged in recent polls; as of February 7th, he is polling at 11% nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator. Pete Buttigieg, who won the most delegates in Iowa and has also seen a slight increase in popularity after this victory, is still only polling at 8%; while Joe Biden, the frontrunner until recently, had a singularly disappointing election, which may be repeated in New Hampshire, and generally appears to be running out of steam.
These three candidates–Biden, Buttigieg and Bloomberg—may be considered the only moderate Democrats running with a realistic chance of winning the nomination. After Super Tuesday, one of them will likely emerge as the leading alternative to democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. A natural test of whether Bloomberg's strategy has succeeded is whether he comes to occupy this position. So we ask: Will Michael Bloomberg win more delegates than Biden and Buttigieg on Super Tuesday?
Resolution
The question resolves positively if Michael Bloomberg obtains more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg individually. The question resolves negatively otherwise. Failure by a candidate to run in one or more of these elections will be treated as if the candidate had won no delegates in those elections. The elections scheduled to occur on that day are those in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Resolution is according to official records. | true | 2020-03-01 | Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-24 | 2020-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-11", 0.05], ["2020-02-13", 0.324], ["2020-02-15", 0.221], ["2020-02-15", 0.219], ["2020-02-17", 0.219], ["2020-02-18", 0.187], ["2020-02-20", 0.179], ["2020-02-22", 0.176], ["2020-02-23", 0.182], ["2020-03-02", 0.174], ["2020-03-08", 0.177], ["2020-03-10", 0.17], ["2020-03-11", 0.176], ["2020-03-12", 0.169], ["2020-03-17", 0.169], ["2020-03-18", 0.169], ["2020-03-23", 0.164], ["2020-03-25", 0.161], ["2020-03-30", 0.158], ["2020-03-31", 0.154], ["2020-04-02", 0.154], ["2020-04-03", 0.154], ["2020-04-05", 0.154], ["2020-04-10", 0.156], ["2020-04-12", 0.156], ["2020-04-14", 0.155], ["2020-04-16", 0.155], ["2020-04-17", 0.161], ["2020-04-20", 0.168], ["2020-04-20", 0.161], ["2020-04-23", 0.16], ["2020-04-25", 0.16], ["2020-05-01", 0.159], ["2020-05-01", 0.161], ["2020-05-05", 0.159], ["2020-05-08", 0.156], ["2020-05-09", 0.155], ["2020-05-11", 0.168], ["2020-05-27", 0.168], ["2020-05-27", 0.17], ["2020-06-02", 0.17], ["2020-06-03", 0.17], ["2020-06-06", 0.169], ["2020-06-07", 0.157], ["2020-06-08", 0.151], ["2020-06-09", 0.15], ["2020-06-11", 0.148], ["2020-06-13", 0.144], ["2020-06-14", 0.147], ["2020-06-15", 0.145], ["2020-06-16", 0.139], ["2020-06-18", 0.134], ["2020-06-19", 0.135], ["2020-06-20", 0.135], ["2020-06-22", 0.134], ["2020-06-24", 0.134], ["2020-06-25", 0.132], ["2020-06-26", 0.133], ["2020-07-01", 0.132], ["2020-07-04", 0.131], ["2020-07-06", 0.131], ["2020-07-09", 0.131], ["2020-07-13", 0.131], ["2020-07-14", 0.13], ["2020-07-19", 0.132], ["2020-07-21", 0.129], ["2020-07-26", 0.13], ["2020-07-27", 0.13], ["2020-07-28", 0.13], ["2020-08-01", 0.13], ["2020-08-05", 0.132], ["2020-08-14", 0.132], ["2020-08-19", 0.132], ["2020-08-20", 0.132], ["2020-08-23", 0.134], ["2020-08-25", 0.134], ["2020-09-01", 0.133], ["2020-09-09", 0.133], ["2020-09-11", 0.133], ["2020-09-22", 0.133], ["2020-09-24", 0.133], ["2020-09-26", 0.143], ["2020-09-27", 0.142], ["2020-09-28", 0.148], ["2020-09-30", 0.153], ["2020-10-01", 0.152], ["2020-10-05", 0.153], ["2020-10-06", 0.152], ["2020-10-08", 0.152], ["2020-10-09", 0.151], ["2020-10-13", 0.151], ["2020-10-14", 0.149], ["2020-10-15", 0.149], ["2020-10-22", 0.149], ["2020-10-25", 0.149], ["2020-10-25", 0.148], ["2020-10-28", 0.148], ["2020-10-30", 0.146], ["2020-10-31", 0.145], ["2020-11-02", 0.144], ["2020-11-04", 0.16]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3611/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Assume that a candidate other than Donald Trump wins the 2020 US Presidential election, meaning that either they recieve at least 270 votes in the electoral college, or that no candidate does and they win the election held in the House of Representatives for the Presidency. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that Trump maintains that he is still the president of the United States as of January 21st 2021. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
If Trump wins the election, this question resolves ambiguously. | true | 2020-11-04 | If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-08 | 2020-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-17", 0.33], ["2020-02-20", 0.204], ["2020-02-22", 0.203], ["2020-02-24", 0.201], ["2020-02-28", 0.198], ["2020-03-01", 0.213], ["2020-03-04", 0.203], ["2020-03-09", 0.2], ["2020-03-12", 0.182], ["2020-03-16", 0.182], ["2020-03-17", 0.182], ["2020-03-21", 0.182], ["2020-03-23", 0.179], ["2020-03-25", 0.178], ["2020-03-29", 0.178], ["2020-03-31", 0.174], ["2020-04-03", 0.175], ["2020-04-05", 0.175], ["2020-04-14", 0.175], ["2020-04-24", 0.174], ["2020-04-30", 0.174], ["2020-05-04", 0.164], ["2020-05-06", 0.16], ["2020-05-10", 0.157], ["2020-05-16", 0.157], ["2020-05-18", 0.155], ["2020-05-29", 0.159], ["2020-05-31", 0.157], ["2020-06-02", 0.156], ["2020-06-05", 0.159], ["2020-06-07", 0.156], ["2020-06-10", 0.157], ["2020-06-12", 0.157], ["2020-06-14", 0.156], ["2020-06-17", 0.155], ["2020-06-19", 0.156], ["2020-06-22", 0.156], ["2020-06-24", 0.157], ["2020-06-29", 0.163], ["2020-07-02", 0.155], ["2020-07-05", 0.156], ["2020-07-07", 0.155], ["2020-07-09", 0.152], ["2020-07-11", 0.151], ["2020-07-20", 0.151], ["2020-07-23", 0.154], ["2020-07-26", 0.153], ["2020-07-28", 0.154], ["2020-08-04", 0.154], ["2020-08-10", 0.154], ["2020-08-17", 0.153], ["2020-08-19", 0.157], ["2020-08-21", 0.159], ["2020-08-23", 0.159], ["2020-08-26", 0.16], ["2020-08-28", 0.165], ["2020-09-01", 0.172], ["2020-09-02", 0.175], ["2020-09-04", 0.175], ["2020-09-07", 0.176], ["2020-09-09", 0.175], ["2020-09-13", 0.175], ["2020-09-15", 0.175], ["2020-09-17", 0.175], ["2020-09-22", 0.175], ["2020-09-25", 0.175], ["2020-10-01", 0.175], ["2020-10-05", 0.175], ["2020-10-08", 0.175], ["2020-10-09", 0.176], ["2020-10-21", 0.176], ["2020-10-23", 0.181], ["2020-10-26", 0.181], ["2020-10-28", 0.18], ["2020-10-30", 0.18], ["2020-11-02", 0.18], ["2020-11-05", 0.18], ["2020-11-10", 0.18], ["2020-11-12", 0.182], ["2020-11-14", 0.187], ["2020-11-16", 0.191], ["2020-11-18", 0.194], ["2020-11-20", 0.196], ["2020-11-22", 0.196], ["2020-11-24", 0.211], ["2020-11-27", 0.217], ["2020-11-29", 0.252], ["2020-12-02", 0.256], ["2020-12-05", 0.257], ["2020-12-07", 0.276], ["2020-12-10", 0.324], ["2020-12-13", 0.324], ["2020-12-16", 0.334], ["2020-12-19", 0.342], ["2020-12-22", 0.358], ["2020-12-25", 0.359], ["2020-12-27", 0.361], ["2020-12-30", 0.363], ["2021-01-03", 0.386], ["2021-01-06", 0.426], ["2021-01-08", 0.527]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3612/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if by January 1st 2030, a comment on this Metaculus question links to an archive of the Bloomberg Billionaire Index OR the Forbes real-time list of billionaires indicating that Elon Musk was the richest person in the world at some point of time during the 2020s. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
Acceptable archive sites include archive.is and archive.org. However, any archival site that is determined to be trustworthy by Metaculus moderators would also work.
This question will close and resolve at the minimum date of any such archive, if it exists.
(Edited 2020-07-20 to change resolve date to date of archive rather than archive posting.) | true | 2021-01-08 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-04 | 2020-02-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-11", 0.54], ["2020-02-14", 0.68], ["2020-02-15", 0.654], ["2020-02-18", 0.658], ["2020-02-19", 0.658], ["2020-02-21", 0.66], ["2020-02-24", 0.672], ["2020-02-27", 0.669], ["2020-03-01", 0.667], ["2020-03-03", 0.673], ["2020-03-05", 0.649], ["2020-03-07", 0.624], ["2020-03-09", 0.581], ["2020-03-11", 0.55], ["2020-03-13", 0.55], ["2020-03-15", 0.539], ["2020-03-16", 0.536], ["2020-03-19", 0.538], ["2020-03-21", 0.535], ["2020-03-23", 0.534], ["2020-03-26", 0.53], ["2020-03-29", 0.526], ["2020-03-31", 0.524], ["2020-04-03", 0.524], ["2020-04-05", 0.521], ["2020-04-07", 0.521], ["2020-04-10", 0.49], ["2020-04-14", 0.49], ["2020-04-15", 0.491], ["2020-04-17", 0.491], ["2020-04-20", 0.487], ["2020-04-22", 0.486], ["2020-04-25", 0.482], ["2020-04-28", 0.48], ["2020-05-01", 0.469], ["2020-05-06", 0.464], ["2020-05-07", 0.458], ["2020-05-12", 0.456], ["2020-05-17", 0.454], ["2020-05-19", 0.416], ["2020-05-21", 0.411], ["2020-05-23", 0.408], ["2020-05-26", 0.408], ["2020-05-27", 0.406], ["2020-05-29", 0.404], ["2020-06-01", 0.403], ["2020-06-05", 0.403], ["2020-06-09", 0.402], ["2020-06-14", 0.402], ["2020-06-16", 0.4], ["2020-06-18", 0.397], ["2020-06-27", 0.4], ["2020-06-29", 0.399], ["2020-07-02", 0.391], ["2020-07-04", 0.391], ["2020-07-07", 0.382], ["2020-07-10", 0.382], ["2020-07-11", 0.378], ["2020-07-13", 0.373], ["2020-07-16", 0.369], ["2020-07-19", 0.369], ["2020-07-22", 0.367], ["2020-07-22", 0.367], ["2020-07-28", 0.367], ["2020-07-28", 0.367], ["2020-08-04", 0.365], ["2020-08-11", 0.365], ["2020-08-13", 0.361], ["2020-08-17", 0.36], ["2020-08-19", 0.36], ["2020-08-21", 0.357], ["2020-08-27", 0.356], ["2020-08-29", 0.356], ["2020-09-02", 0.357], ["2020-09-04", 0.355], ["2020-09-07", 0.354], ["2020-09-09", 0.351], ["2020-09-12", 0.351], ["2020-09-15", 0.348], ["2020-09-16", 0.348], ["2020-09-20", 0.348], ["2020-09-20", 0.348], ["2020-09-24", 0.348], ["2020-09-25", 0.344], ["2020-09-27", 0.345], ["2020-09-30", 0.345], ["2020-10-02", 0.344], ["2020-10-05", 0.34], ["2020-10-07", 0.333], ["2020-10-09", 0.326], ["2020-10-12", 0.321], ["2020-10-13", 0.32], ["2020-10-15", 0.319], ["2020-10-18", 0.317], ["2020-10-20", 0.317], ["2020-10-22", 0.317], ["2020-10-25", 0.316], ["2020-10-27", 0.314], ["2020-10-30", 0.312], ["2020-11-02", 0.273], ["2020-11-03", 0.229]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3630/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if one of Donald Trump's tweets includes any of the following phrases (case insensitive):
"Communist Bernie Sanders"
"Communist Bernie"
"Communist Sanders"
"Commie Bernie Sanders"
"Commie' Bernie Sanders"
"Commie' Bernie"
"Bernie Sanders is communist"
"Bernie Sanders is a communist"
Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
"Donald Trump's tweets" means those made by the twitter handles @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS. | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-11 | 2020-02-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-12", 0.45], ["2020-02-12", 0.49], ["2020-02-12", 0.553], ["2020-02-12", 0.553], ["2020-02-12", 0.628], ["2020-02-12", 0.602], ["2020-02-12", 0.633], ["2020-02-13", 0.599], ["2020-02-13", 0.599], ["2020-02-13", 0.578], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2020-02-13", 0.576], ["2020-02-13", 0.562], ["2020-02-13", 0.563], ["2020-02-13", 0.571], ["2020-02-13", 0.568], ["2020-02-14", 0.576], ["2020-02-14", 0.576], ["2020-02-14", 0.573], ["2020-02-14", 0.573], ["2020-02-14", 0.574], ["2020-02-14", 0.574], ["2020-02-14", 0.574], ["2020-02-14", 0.583], ["2020-02-14", 0.587], ["2020-02-14", 0.59], ["2020-02-14", 0.59], ["2020-02-14", 0.592], ["2020-02-15", 0.604], ["2020-02-15", 0.604], ["2020-02-15", 0.61], ["2020-02-15", 0.617], ["2020-02-15", 0.617], ["2020-02-15", 0.62], ["2020-02-15", 0.627], ["2020-02-15", 0.627], ["2020-02-16", 0.63], ["2020-02-16", 0.645], ["2020-02-16", 0.645], ["2020-02-16", 0.644], ["2020-02-16", 0.64], ["2020-02-16", 0.64], ["2020-02-16", 0.641], ["2020-02-16", 0.635], ["2020-02-16", 0.633], ["2020-02-16", 0.633], ["2020-02-16", 0.635], ["2020-02-17", 0.635], ["2020-02-17", 0.641], ["2020-02-17", 0.641], ["2020-02-17", 0.641], ["2020-02-17", 0.649], ["2020-02-17", 0.648], ["2020-02-17", 0.648], ["2020-02-17", 0.65], ["2020-02-17", 0.65], ["2020-02-17", 0.653], ["2020-02-17", 0.651], ["2020-02-18", 0.652], ["2020-02-18", 0.652], ["2020-02-18", 0.659], ["2020-02-18", 0.659], ["2020-02-18", 0.664], ["2020-02-18", 0.665], ["2020-02-18", 0.667], ["2020-02-18", 0.667], ["2020-02-18", 0.667], ["2020-02-18", 0.666], ["2020-02-18", 0.669], ["2020-02-18", 0.671], ["2020-02-18", 0.669], ["2020-02-19", 0.674], ["2020-02-20", 0.674], ["2020-02-20", 0.676], ["2020-02-20", 0.678], ["2020-02-20", 0.678], ["2020-02-20", 0.677], ["2020-02-22", 0.68], ["2020-02-23", 0.679], ["2020-02-24", 0.679], ["2020-02-25", 0.686], ["2020-02-25", 0.686], ["2020-02-25", 0.687], ["2020-02-25", 0.687], ["2020-02-26", 0.691], ["2020-02-26", 0.69], ["2020-02-26", 0.69], ["2020-02-26", 0.692], ["2020-02-26", 0.69], ["2020-02-27", 0.692], ["2020-02-27", 0.695], ["2020-02-27", 0.7], ["2020-02-27", 0.7], ["2020-02-27", 0.701], ["2020-02-27", 0.702], ["2020-02-27", 0.702], ["2020-02-28", 0.708], ["2020-02-28", 0.71]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3632/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Every year on Groundhog's Day, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his home on Gobbler's Knob and the Inner Circle reports whether Phil could see his shadow, indicating whether he predicts an early spring, or six more weeks of winter-like weather.
This year, Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring. Will he be right?
The Inner Circle maintains kayfabe and holds that Phil's record is flawless. Independent analyses have been more harsh.
For the purpose of this question, an early spring is defined as February having a mean temperature in the United States above the 20th century average, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). | true | 2020-02-28 | Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-23 | 2020-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-14", 0.75], ["2020-02-14", 0.417], ["2020-02-14", 0.412], ["2020-02-14", 0.229], ["2020-02-15", 0.196], ["2020-02-15", 0.193], ["2020-02-15", 0.186], ["2020-02-16", 0.182], ["2020-02-16", 0.17], ["2020-02-17", 0.202], ["2020-02-17", 0.202], ["2020-02-17", 0.192], ["2020-02-17", 0.185], ["2020-02-18", 0.184], ["2020-02-19", 0.185], ["2020-02-19", 0.187], ["2020-02-19", 0.187], ["2020-02-19", 0.185], ["2020-02-20", 0.182], ["2020-02-20", 0.191], ["2020-02-20", 0.192], ["2020-02-21", 0.198], ["2020-02-21", 0.189], ["2020-02-21", 0.19], ["2020-02-21", 0.192], ["2020-02-22", 0.205], ["2020-02-23", 0.207], ["2020-02-23", 0.203], ["2020-02-23", 0.202], ["2020-02-23", 0.206], ["2020-02-24", 0.206], ["2020-02-24", 0.207], ["2020-02-24", 0.228], ["2020-02-25", 0.232], ["2020-02-25", 0.236], ["2020-02-25", 0.236], ["2020-02-26", 0.245], ["2020-02-27", 0.25], ["2020-02-28", 0.251], ["2020-02-28", 0.251], ["2020-02-28", 0.251], ["2020-02-29", 0.266], ["2020-02-29", 0.27], ["2020-02-29", 0.271], ["2020-03-01", 0.279], ["2020-03-01", 0.281], ["2020-03-01", 0.281], ["2020-03-01", 0.289], ["2020-03-02", 0.289], ["2020-03-03", 0.29], ["2020-03-03", 0.286], ["2020-03-04", 0.286], ["2020-03-04", 0.288], ["2020-03-05", 0.288], ["2020-03-06", 0.289], ["2020-03-06", 0.293], ["2020-03-06", 0.299], ["2020-03-07", 0.299], ["2020-03-07", 0.3], ["2020-03-08", 0.3], ["2020-03-09", 0.302], ["2020-03-09", 0.312], ["2020-03-09", 0.312], ["2020-03-10", 0.305], ["2020-03-11", 0.302], ["2020-03-11", 0.299], ["2020-03-11", 0.299], ["2020-03-11", 0.299], ["2020-03-12", 0.302], ["2020-03-12", 0.322], ["2020-03-12", 0.34], ["2020-03-13", 0.342], ["2020-03-13", 0.342], ["2020-03-14", 0.342], ["2020-03-14", 0.345], ["2020-03-14", 0.362], ["2020-03-14", 0.364], ["2020-03-15", 0.364], ["2020-03-15", 0.381], ["2020-03-16", 0.381], ["2020-03-16", 0.387], ["2020-03-16", 0.394], ["2020-03-17", 0.402], ["2020-03-17", 0.402], ["2020-03-18", 0.403], ["2020-03-18", 0.411], ["2020-03-18", 0.418], ["2020-03-19", 0.418], ["2020-03-19", 0.442], ["2020-03-20", 0.453], ["2020-03-20", 0.457], ["2020-03-20", 0.47], ["2020-03-20", 0.48], ["2020-03-21", 0.496], ["2020-03-21", 0.504], ["2020-03-21", 0.518], ["2020-03-22", 0.534], ["2020-03-22", 0.544], ["2020-03-22", 0.545], ["2020-03-22", 0.55], ["2020-03-23", 0.56]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3650/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The CDC's level 3 Travel Health Notice advises against non-essential travel:
Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.
As of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues level 3 travel health notices for China and Venezuela.
This question will resolve positively if the CDC issues a Warning Level 3 Travel Health notice for Thailand (or any part thereof) before 00:00 GMT on May 1st, due to the 2019 novel coronavirus. Determination of the answer will be made by consulting the relevant CDC noticeboard. Positive resolution requires the CDC mentioning the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in their reasons for issuing the Level 3 Travel Health Notice. | true | 2020-04-01 | Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-19 | 2020-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-13", 0.8], ["2020-02-14", 0.407], ["2020-02-16", 0.391], ["2020-02-17", 0.361], ["2020-02-18", 0.361], ["2020-02-19", 0.361], ["2020-02-20", 0.362], ["2020-02-21", 0.351], ["2020-02-22", 0.328], ["2020-02-23", 0.321], ["2020-02-24", 0.324], ["2020-02-26", 0.355], ["2020-02-26", 0.365], ["2020-02-27", 0.363], ["2020-02-28", 0.376], ["2020-02-29", 0.452], ["2020-03-01", 0.45], ["2020-03-02", 0.456], ["2020-03-04", 0.443], ["2020-03-05", 0.433], ["2020-03-05", 0.445], ["2020-03-07", 0.443], ["2020-03-08", 0.436], ["2020-03-08", 0.436], ["2020-03-09", 0.421], ["2020-03-11", 0.421], ["2020-03-11", 0.411], ["2020-03-13", 0.408], ["2020-03-14", 0.402], ["2020-03-15", 0.388], ["2020-03-16", 0.394], ["2020-03-17", 0.4], ["2020-03-17", 0.414], ["2020-03-19", 0.427], ["2020-03-20", 0.449], ["2020-03-22", 0.462], ["2020-03-23", 0.466], ["2020-03-23", 0.467], ["2020-03-24", 0.472], ["2020-03-26", 0.472], ["2020-03-27", 0.476], ["2020-03-28", 0.475], ["2020-03-29", 0.475], ["2020-03-30", 0.476], ["2020-03-31", 0.477], ["2020-04-02", 0.485], ["2020-04-03", 0.487], ["2020-04-04", 0.491], ["2020-04-04", 0.491], ["2020-04-06", 0.492], ["2020-04-07", 0.495], ["2020-04-08", 0.494], ["2020-04-09", 0.494], ["2020-04-10", 0.494], ["2020-04-11", 0.495], ["2020-04-12", 0.495], ["2020-04-13", 0.494], ["2020-04-14", 0.495], ["2020-04-15", 0.498], ["2020-04-16", 0.5], ["2020-04-17", 0.5], ["2020-04-18", 0.505], ["2020-04-19", 0.505], ["2020-04-20", 0.504], ["2020-04-21", 0.508], ["2020-04-22", 0.509], ["2020-04-22", 0.51], ["2020-04-23", 0.511], ["2020-04-25", 0.508], ["2020-04-25", 0.511], ["2020-04-26", 0.513], ["2020-04-27", 0.516], ["2020-04-28", 0.522], ["2020-04-29", 0.52], ["2020-04-30", 0.528], ["2020-05-01", 0.529], ["2020-05-03", 0.53], ["2020-05-03", 0.531], ["2020-05-04", 0.531], ["2020-05-05", 0.532], ["2020-05-07", 0.537], ["2020-05-08", 0.537], ["2020-05-09", 0.537], ["2020-05-10", 0.538], ["2020-05-11", 0.538], ["2020-05-13", 0.537], ["2020-05-14", 0.538], ["2020-05-15", 0.54], ["2020-05-16", 0.542], ["2020-05-18", 0.542], ["2020-05-19", 0.549], ["2020-05-20", 0.552], ["2020-05-21", 0.555], ["2020-05-22", 0.563], ["2020-05-24", 0.571], ["2020-05-25", 0.576], ["2020-05-26", 0.583], ["2020-05-28", 0.589], ["2020-05-29", 0.593], ["2020-05-30", 0.604], ["2020-05-31", 0.618]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3655/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Covid-19, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The virus is at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Various research groups have started work on a vaccine to fight the virus, with some hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.
Question: Will a vaccine targeted at the Covid-19 be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?
Details:
Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.
A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people.
A vaccine can trigger:
Positive resolution if there is consensus that it protects against Covid-19.
Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
Negative resolution occurs only when there is no vaccine triggering either positive or ambiguous resolution.
The aforementioned "consensus" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.
This resolves whenever the relevant media reports are published, or on 2021-01-01 (whichever comes first).
If this resolves positively, it does not close retroactively (sorry for the lost points).
A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people. | true | 2020-05-31 | Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-03-28 | 2020-02-11 | ["https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3503221.3508417", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3182498/china-supercomputer-achieves-global-first-brain-scale-ai-model", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/#comment-39631", "https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/ai-machine-learning/training-a-recommender-model-of-100-trillions-parameters-on-google-cloud", "https://keg.cs.tsinghua.edu.cn/jietang/publications/PPOPP22-Ma%20et%20al.-BaGuaLu%20Targeting%20Brain%20Scale%20Pretrained%20Models%20w.pdf", "https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/supercomputer-brain-scale-174-trillion-parameters", "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Fpvch8RR29qLEWNH/chinchilla-s-wild-implications"] | binary | [["2020-02-22", 0.7], ["2020-03-01", 0.683], ["2020-03-07", 0.685], ["2020-03-14", 0.678], ["2020-03-20", 0.678], ["2020-03-26", 0.685], ["2020-03-31", 0.685], ["2020-04-05", 0.681], ["2020-04-23", 0.68], ["2020-05-16", 0.68], ["2020-05-29", 0.687], ["2020-06-02", 0.71], ["2020-06-09", 0.712], ["2020-06-18", 0.712], ["2020-06-20", 0.712], ["2020-07-04", 0.712], ["2020-07-12", 0.726], ["2020-07-16", 0.724], ["2020-07-23", 0.73], ["2020-08-17", 0.73], ["2020-08-20", 0.727], ["2020-08-27", 0.727], ["2020-09-04", 0.73], ["2020-09-10", 0.743], ["2020-09-14", 0.764], ["2020-09-28", 0.764], ["2020-10-06", 0.765], ["2020-10-12", 0.768], ["2020-10-16", 0.769], ["2020-10-21", 0.769], ["2020-11-11", 0.771], ["2020-11-17", 0.778], ["2020-12-07", 0.779], ["2020-12-10", 0.778], ["2020-12-16", 0.781], ["2020-12-28", 0.781], ["2021-01-04", 0.781], ["2021-01-13", 0.781], ["2021-01-21", 0.783], ["2021-01-27", 0.785], ["2021-02-04", 0.788], ["2021-02-12", 0.788], ["2021-02-17", 0.789], ["2021-02-22", 0.79], ["2021-03-03", 0.79], ["2021-03-08", 0.79], ["2021-03-14", 0.791], ["2021-03-19", 0.793], ["2021-03-27", 0.807], ["2021-04-01", 0.806], ["2021-04-07", 0.806], ["2021-04-15", 0.811], ["2021-04-22", 0.819], ["2021-04-28", 0.822], ["2021-05-02", 0.823], ["2021-05-07", 0.823], ["2021-05-11", 0.824], ["2021-05-17", 0.825], ["2021-05-23", 0.83], ["2021-05-30", 0.831], ["2021-06-06", 0.828], ["2021-06-10", 0.835], ["2021-06-16", 0.834], ["2021-06-20", 0.834], ["2021-06-29", 0.831], ["2021-07-04", 0.83], ["2021-07-11", 0.831], ["2021-07-17", 0.831], ["2021-07-26", 0.831], ["2021-07-29", 0.831], ["2021-08-06", 0.832], ["2021-08-07", 0.832], ["2021-08-22", 0.832], ["2021-08-31", 0.837], ["2021-09-07", 0.837], ["2021-09-13", 0.837], ["2021-09-19", 0.84], ["2021-09-23", 0.839], ["2021-10-07", 0.839], ["2021-10-13", 0.843], ["2021-10-19", 0.841], ["2021-10-24", 0.842], ["2021-11-21", 0.843], ["2021-11-27", 0.843], ["2021-12-02", 0.842], ["2021-12-11", 0.842], ["2021-12-19", 0.842], ["2021-12-24", 0.843], ["2022-01-01", 0.845], ["2022-01-07", 0.846], ["2022-01-13", 0.852], ["2022-01-18", 0.852], ["2022-01-29", 0.852], ["2022-02-06", 0.854], ["2022-02-13", 0.854], ["2022-02-17", 0.854], ["2022-02-24", 0.856], ["2022-03-02", 0.855], ["2022-03-08", 0.858], ["2022-03-16", 0.859], ["2022-03-20", 0.859]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3656/ | In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to 17 billion parameters in early 2020.
Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From their blog post,
The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs.
For comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit has 27,648 GPUs, suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach.
Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new Reformer may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.
I have chosen 100 trillion because it is considered by some to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. | Science & Tech | This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. | true | 2026-01-01 | Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-05 | 2020-02-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-16", 0.33], ["2020-02-16", 0.365], ["2020-02-16", 0.477], ["2020-02-16", 0.477], ["2020-02-16", 0.52], ["2020-02-16", 0.582], ["2020-02-16", 0.582], ["2020-02-17", 0.579], ["2020-02-17", 0.581], ["2020-02-17", 0.58], ["2020-02-17", 0.575], ["2020-02-17", 0.572], ["2020-02-18", 0.572], ["2020-02-18", 0.566], ["2020-02-18", 0.554], ["2020-02-18", 0.56], ["2020-02-18", 0.56], ["2020-02-18", 0.549], ["2020-02-18", 0.549], ["2020-02-18", 0.533], ["2020-02-19", 0.536], ["2020-02-19", 0.537], ["2020-02-19", 0.537], ["2020-02-19", 0.519], ["2020-02-19", 0.519], ["2020-02-19", 0.512], ["2020-02-19", 0.512], ["2020-02-19", 0.49], ["2020-02-19", 0.49], ["2020-02-19", 0.488], ["2020-02-19", 0.487], ["2020-02-20", 0.486], ["2020-02-21", 0.486], ["2020-02-21", 0.484], ["2020-02-21", 0.484], ["2020-02-21", 0.488], ["2020-02-22", 0.485], ["2020-02-23", 0.485], ["2020-02-23", 0.481], ["2020-02-23", 0.48], ["2020-02-25", 0.48], ["2020-02-26", 0.464], ["2020-02-28", 0.459], ["2020-02-28", 0.46], ["2020-02-29", 0.459], ["2020-02-29", 0.455], ["2020-02-29", 0.455], ["2020-02-29", 0.455]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3666/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Nate Silver and his fivethirtyeight site has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and Presidential races.
Prediction markets have offered an alternative to poll aggregation in forecasting elections. Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.
Both fivethirtyeight.com and PredictIt have published probabilities for each of the 14 Super Tuesday Primaries on the Democratic side. (The races are California, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Utah, Maine, Vermont.)
Which forecasts will prove to be more accurate?
To compare, we will score each set of predictions using a Brier score averaged over all races, computed as where j enumerates the possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the ith race out of N, where is the forecast probability of candidate j winning the ith race, and is assigned 1 if candidate j wins the ith race, and 0 otherwise.
For example, if PredictIt assigned 52% to Sanders and 48% to Warren in the New York Democratic Primary and if Sanders won then PredictIt would achieve a Brier Score of A lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to . (In the case where PredictIt's prices do not add up to $1, we will normalize them to $1 to convert to probabilities.)
This question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 14 races is lower for PredictIt's probabilities than for fivethirtyeight.com's probabilities, where we will take values as of noon EST on 3/2/2020, and election outcomes as reported on 3/3-3/4. | true | 2020-03-02 | Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-01 | 2020-02-15 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-18", 0.295], ["2020-02-19", 0.37], ["2020-02-20", 0.355], ["2020-02-20", 0.32], ["2020-02-22", 0.333], ["2020-02-22", 0.319], ["2020-02-23", 0.326], ["2020-02-23", 0.33], ["2020-02-24", 0.314], ["2020-02-25", 0.307], ["2020-02-26", 0.3], ["2020-02-28", 0.296], ["2020-02-28", 0.296], ["2020-02-29", 0.295], ["2020-02-29", 0.297], ["2020-03-03", 0.291], ["2020-03-03", 0.287], ["2020-03-04", 0.279], ["2020-03-05", 0.271], ["2020-03-05", 0.266], ["2020-03-06", 0.271], ["2020-03-06", 0.267], ["2020-03-09", 0.264], ["2020-03-09", 0.262], ["2020-03-09", 0.257], ["2020-03-11", 0.257], ["2020-03-12", 0.253], ["2020-03-12", 0.252], ["2020-03-14", 0.253], ["2020-03-17", 0.252], ["2020-03-18", 0.252], ["2020-03-23", 0.247], ["2020-03-24", 0.249], ["2020-03-27", 0.247], ["2020-03-27", 0.236], ["2020-03-29", 0.236], ["2020-03-31", 0.236], ["2020-03-31", 0.235], ["2020-04-01", 0.233], ["2020-04-02", 0.233], ["2020-04-03", 0.23], ["2020-04-03", 0.23], ["2020-04-04", 0.23], ["2020-04-05", 0.23], ["2020-04-06", 0.227], ["2020-04-06", 0.227], ["2020-04-08", 0.225], ["2020-04-08", 0.219], ["2020-04-09", 0.218], ["2020-04-19", 0.212], ["2020-04-19", 0.209], ["2020-04-20", 0.208], ["2020-04-21", 0.193], ["2020-04-22", 0.19], ["2020-04-24", 0.186], ["2020-04-27", 0.181], ["2020-04-27", 0.174], ["2020-04-30", 0.174], ["2020-05-08", 0.178], ["2020-05-12", 0.173], ["2020-05-17", 0.17], ["2020-05-29", 0.17], ["2020-06-01", 0.17], ["2020-06-04", 0.169], ["2020-06-07", 0.166], ["2020-06-09", 0.166], ["2020-06-09", 0.164], ["2020-06-14", 0.168], ["2020-06-14", 0.168], ["2020-06-17", 0.166], ["2020-06-19", 0.163], ["2020-07-02", 0.161], ["2020-07-03", 0.159], ["2020-07-13", 0.157], ["2020-07-14", 0.157], ["2020-08-19", 0.157], ["2020-08-21", 0.154], ["2020-08-22", 0.154], ["2020-08-29", 0.153], ["2020-08-30", 0.152], ["2020-10-02", 0.152], ["2020-10-02", 0.152], ["2020-10-03", 0.153], ["2020-10-08", 0.153], ["2020-10-09", 0.151], ["2020-10-13", 0.151], ["2020-10-18", 0.149], ["2020-10-18", 0.147], ["2020-10-21", 0.147], ["2020-10-25", 0.145], ["2020-10-30", 0.145], ["2020-10-31", 0.145], ["2020-11-03", 0.145], ["2020-11-04", 0.139], ["2020-11-04", 0.138], ["2020-11-20", 0.138], ["2020-11-24", 0.137], ["2020-11-24", 0.137], ["2020-11-29", 0.136], ["2020-11-30", 0.136], ["2020-12-01", 0.132]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3671/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | While having a lot of great qualities, prediction markets do have some drawbacks. For one, betting markets can be manipulated by anyone with enough resources if they do not mind losing some of them (in expectation). As a case in point, there is some evidence that in 2012 Romney's chances were artificially boosted, and some (rank) speculation (see e.g. here) that Bloomberg's could be similarly benefitting.
The proposition in question will be taken as:
A major prediction market such as PredictIt, Betfair, or one of comparable liquidity has had 2020 Presidential election results materially changed using bets made with funds tied directly to Bloomberg or his campaign.
That's not terribly precise, by design. It does not address the source of knowledge or fix many of the details. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of "self-resolving" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:
If at any time after the date of 2020-12-01 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.
Otherwise, on or about the close and resolve date of 2022-01-01, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. | true | 2022-01-01 | Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-24 | 2020-02-18 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-20", 0.065], ["2020-02-21", 0.188], ["2020-02-21", 0.235], ["2020-02-21", 0.236], ["2020-02-22", 0.216], ["2020-02-22", 0.216], ["2020-02-22", 0.242], ["2020-02-23", 0.257], ["2020-02-23", 0.257], ["2020-02-23", 0.263], ["2020-02-24", 0.271], ["2020-02-24", 0.276], ["2020-02-24", 0.276], ["2020-02-25", 0.288], ["2020-02-25", 0.292], ["2020-02-25", 0.297], ["2020-02-26", 0.314], ["2020-02-26", 0.328], ["2020-02-26", 0.341], ["2020-02-27", 0.358], ["2020-02-27", 0.36], ["2020-02-27", 0.367], ["2020-02-28", 0.37], ["2020-02-28", 0.37], ["2020-02-28", 0.381], ["2020-02-29", 0.384], ["2020-02-29", 0.385], ["2020-02-29", 0.388], ["2020-03-01", 0.392], ["2020-03-01", 0.396], ["2020-03-02", 0.401], ["2020-03-02", 0.4], ["2020-03-02", 0.4], ["2020-03-03", 0.402], ["2020-03-03", 0.401], ["2020-03-03", 0.401], ["2020-03-03", 0.41], ["2020-03-04", 0.415], ["2020-03-04", 0.415], ["2020-03-04", 0.419], ["2020-03-05", 0.426], ["2020-03-05", 0.428], ["2020-03-05", 0.429], ["2020-03-05", 0.435], ["2020-03-06", 0.441], ["2020-03-06", 0.441], ["2020-03-06", 0.442], ["2020-03-07", 0.449], ["2020-03-07", 0.45], ["2020-03-08", 0.451], ["2020-03-08", 0.456], ["2020-03-08", 0.458], ["2020-03-09", 0.465], ["2020-03-09", 0.465], ["2020-03-10", 0.471], ["2020-03-10", 0.471], ["2020-03-10", 0.477], ["2020-03-10", 0.479], ["2020-03-11", 0.488], ["2020-03-11", 0.49], ["2020-03-11", 0.495], ["2020-03-11", 0.505], ["2020-03-12", 0.517], ["2020-03-12", 0.524], ["2020-03-12", 0.528], ["2020-03-12", 0.541], ["2020-03-13", 0.559], ["2020-03-13", 0.569], ["2020-03-13", 0.574], ["2020-03-14", 0.577], ["2020-03-14", 0.586], ["2020-03-14", 0.59], ["2020-03-15", 0.589], ["2020-03-15", 0.596], ["2020-03-15", 0.596], ["2020-03-15", 0.596], ["2020-03-16", 0.599], ["2020-03-16", 0.605], ["2020-03-16", 0.618], ["2020-03-17", 0.621], ["2020-03-17", 0.625], ["2020-03-17", 0.641], ["2020-03-18", 0.649], ["2020-03-18", 0.66], ["2020-03-18", 0.668], ["2020-03-18", 0.679], ["2020-03-19", 0.682], ["2020-03-19", 0.689], ["2020-03-19", 0.695], ["2020-03-20", 0.7], ["2020-03-20", 0.702], ["2020-03-21", 0.712], ["2020-03-21", 0.713], ["2020-03-21", 0.715], ["2020-03-22", 0.716], ["2020-03-22", 0.722], ["2020-03-22", 0.729], ["2020-03-23", 0.743], ["2020-03-23", 0.785], ["2020-03-24", 0.809], ["2020-03-24", 0.815]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3688/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | The 2020 summer Olympics are scheduled to take place in Tokyo, Japan from July 24 to August 9, 2020. Unfortunately Japan is one of the countries experiencing an outbreak of COVID-19. Furthermore if the outbreak worsens in other locations, the international crowds of the Olympics could be a threat by spreading the virus.
Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to this threat?
The question resolves negative if the Olympics takes place on the originally scheduled location and dates, with at least half the events originally planned and at least half the countries represented who originally accepted. If the event is cancelled, the date is moved, the venue is moved away from Tokyo and surrounding areas or over half the events are cancelled or half the countries back out, and a stated reason for the change is COVID-19 (as judged by Metaculus), it resolves positive. | true | 2020-04-26 | Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-11 | 2020-02-18 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-07", 0.77], ["2020-03-07", 0.702], ["2020-03-08", 0.684], ["2020-03-09", 0.705], ["2020-03-10", 0.703], ["2020-03-10", 0.694], ["2020-03-11", 0.709], ["2020-03-12", 0.708], ["2020-03-13", 0.704], ["2020-03-14", 0.697], ["2020-03-16", 0.697], ["2020-03-16", 0.796], ["2020-03-17", 0.83], ["2020-03-18", 0.835], ["2020-03-19", 0.844], ["2020-03-19", 0.846], ["2020-03-22", 0.846], ["2020-03-23", 0.852], ["2020-03-23", 0.855], ["2020-03-25", 0.855], ["2020-03-25", 0.857], ["2020-03-26", 0.864], ["2020-03-27", 0.869], ["2020-03-27", 0.869], ["2020-03-28", 0.87], ["2020-03-29", 0.866], ["2020-03-29", 0.866], ["2020-03-31", 0.866], ["2020-04-01", 0.866], ["2020-04-01", 0.867], ["2020-04-02", 0.866], ["2020-04-03", 0.868], ["2020-04-03", 0.868], ["2020-04-04", 0.868], ["2020-04-05", 0.868], ["2020-04-06", 0.868], ["2020-04-08", 0.87], ["2020-04-09", 0.874], ["2020-04-10", 0.874], ["2020-04-11", 0.875], ["2020-04-11", 0.876], ["2020-04-12", 0.879], ["2020-04-13", 0.879], ["2020-04-13", 0.88], ["2020-04-15", 0.881], ["2020-04-16", 0.881], ["2020-04-16", 0.881], ["2020-04-17", 0.882], ["2020-04-18", 0.882], ["2020-04-20", 0.882], ["2020-04-21", 0.883], ["2020-04-21", 0.885], ["2020-04-22", 0.885], ["2020-04-23", 0.884], ["2020-04-23", 0.883], ["2020-04-24", 0.882], ["2020-04-26", 0.883], ["2020-04-27", 0.887], ["2020-04-28", 0.888], ["2020-04-29", 0.892], ["2020-04-30", 0.893], ["2020-05-01", 0.893], ["2020-05-02", 0.893], ["2020-05-03", 0.893], ["2020-05-03", 0.893], ["2020-05-05", 0.894], ["2020-05-06", 0.894], ["2020-05-06", 0.895], ["2020-05-07", 0.895], ["2020-05-08", 0.895], ["2020-05-08", 0.894], ["2020-05-09", 0.895], ["2020-05-10", 0.894], ["2020-05-10", 0.895], ["2020-05-11", 0.895], ["2020-05-12", 0.895], ["2020-05-13", 0.896], ["2020-05-14", 0.897], ["2020-05-14", 0.897], ["2020-05-15", 0.899], ["2020-05-17", 0.893], ["2020-05-18", 0.893], ["2020-05-18", 0.893], ["2020-05-19", 0.893], ["2020-05-20", 0.894], ["2020-05-21", 0.895], ["2020-05-22", 0.896], ["2020-05-22", 0.897], ["2020-05-23", 0.899], ["2020-05-24", 0.899], ["2020-05-24", 0.9], ["2020-05-25", 0.9], ["2020-05-26", 0.899], ["2020-05-27", 0.9], ["2020-05-27", 0.9], ["2020-05-28", 0.9], ["2020-05-29", 0.9], ["2020-05-30", 0.9], ["2020-05-30", 0.899], ["2020-05-31", 0.91], ["2020-06-01", 0.911]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3697/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Will the Democratic candidate for President of the USA in 2020 choose a female running mate?
The running mate, i.e. the candidate for Vice-President, is expected to be named by the Presidential candidate at the 2020 Democratic National Convention on July 13-16. | true | 2020-06-01 | Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-22 | 2020-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-21", 0.24], ["2020-02-22", 0.338], ["2020-02-22", 0.338], ["2020-02-22", 0.311], ["2020-02-23", 0.35], ["2020-02-23", 0.345], ["2020-02-23", 0.314], ["2020-02-23", 0.297], ["2020-02-24", 0.29], ["2020-02-24", 0.29], ["2020-02-24", 0.306], ["2020-02-24", 0.322], ["2020-02-25", 0.322], ["2020-02-25", 0.324], ["2020-02-25", 0.318], ["2020-02-26", 0.322], ["2020-02-26", 0.323], ["2020-02-27", 0.323], ["2020-02-27", 0.323], ["2020-02-28", 0.323], ["2020-02-28", 0.329], ["2020-02-28", 0.342], ["2020-02-28", 0.342], ["2020-02-29", 0.357], ["2020-02-29", 0.367], ["2020-02-29", 0.369], ["2020-03-01", 0.376], ["2020-03-01", 0.376], ["2020-03-01", 0.392], ["2020-03-02", 0.397], ["2020-03-02", 0.398], ["2020-03-02", 0.397], ["2020-03-02", 0.397], ["2020-03-03", 0.408], ["2020-03-03", 0.469], ["2020-03-03", 0.475], ["2020-03-04", 0.477], ["2020-03-04", 0.499], ["2020-03-04", 0.499], ["2020-03-04", 0.506], ["2020-03-05", 0.518], ["2020-03-05", 0.527], ["2020-03-05", 0.532], ["2020-03-05", 0.545], ["2020-03-06", 0.546], ["2020-03-07", 0.552], ["2020-03-07", 0.555], ["2020-03-07", 0.558], ["2020-03-08", 0.566], ["2020-03-08", 0.573], ["2020-03-08", 0.576], ["2020-03-08", 0.604], ["2020-03-09", 0.604], ["2020-03-09", 0.602], ["2020-03-09", 0.632], ["2020-03-10", 0.642], ["2020-03-10", 0.655], ["2020-03-10", 0.647], ["2020-03-10", 0.649], ["2020-03-11", 0.646], ["2020-03-11", 0.663], ["2020-03-11", 0.669], ["2020-03-11", 0.671], ["2020-03-12", 0.671], ["2020-03-12", 0.694], ["2020-03-12", 0.704], ["2020-03-13", 0.714], ["2020-03-13", 0.715], ["2020-03-13", 0.718], ["2020-03-13", 0.725], ["2020-03-14", 0.74], ["2020-03-14", 0.756], ["2020-03-14", 0.759], ["2020-03-14", 0.764], ["2020-03-15", 0.769], ["2020-03-15", 0.769], ["2020-03-15", 0.781], ["2020-03-16", 0.783], ["2020-03-16", 0.786], ["2020-03-16", 0.792], ["2020-03-16", 0.807], ["2020-03-17", 0.817], ["2020-03-17", 0.819], ["2020-03-17", 0.816], ["2020-03-18", 0.824], ["2020-03-18", 0.828], ["2020-03-18", 0.829], ["2020-03-18", 0.831], ["2020-03-19", 0.835], ["2020-03-19", 0.836], ["2020-03-19", 0.837], ["2020-03-19", 0.838], ["2020-03-20", 0.839], ["2020-03-20", 0.84], ["2020-03-20", 0.841], ["2020-03-20", 0.843], ["2020-03-21", 0.844], ["2020-03-21", 0.844], ["2020-03-21", 0.846], ["2020-03-22", 0.849], ["2020-03-22", 0.849]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3699/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak.
As of 19 February 2020, over 75,000 cases and over 2,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in China.
This question asks: Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported on the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators? | true | 2020-12-01 | Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-17 | 2020-02-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-24", 0.43], ["2020-02-25", 0.605], ["2020-02-26", 0.762], ["2020-02-27", 0.792], ["2020-02-28", 0.782], ["2020-02-28", 0.773], ["2020-02-29", 0.772], ["2020-03-01", 0.767], ["2020-03-02", 0.769], ["2020-03-03", 0.773], ["2020-03-03", 0.768], ["2020-03-04", 0.759], ["2020-03-05", 0.755], ["2020-03-06", 0.736], ["2020-03-07", 0.728], ["2020-03-08", 0.728], ["2020-03-08", 0.724], ["2020-03-09", 0.723], ["2020-03-10", 0.718], ["2020-03-10", 0.717], ["2020-03-11", 0.712], ["2020-03-12", 0.713], ["2020-03-12", 0.711], ["2020-03-13", 0.711], ["2020-03-14", 0.669], ["2020-03-15", 0.667], ["2020-03-16", 0.669], ["2020-03-17", 0.67], ["2020-03-18", 0.669], ["2020-03-19", 0.667], ["2020-03-19", 0.663], ["2020-03-20", 0.66], ["2020-03-21", 0.647], ["2020-03-21", 0.648], ["2020-03-22", 0.652], ["2020-03-23", 0.647], ["2020-03-23", 0.646], ["2020-03-24", 0.641], ["2020-03-25", 0.636], ["2020-03-25", 0.635], ["2020-03-26", 0.635], ["2020-03-27", 0.645], ["2020-03-28", 0.641], ["2020-03-29", 0.64], ["2020-03-29", 0.639], ["2020-03-30", 0.633], ["2020-03-31", 0.627], ["2020-04-01", 0.633], ["2020-04-01", 0.632], ["2020-04-02", 0.632], ["2020-04-03", 0.623], ["2020-04-03", 0.625], ["2020-04-04", 0.625], ["2020-04-05", 0.624], ["2020-04-06", 0.622], ["2020-04-07", 0.62], ["2020-04-08", 0.617], ["2020-04-09", 0.617], ["2020-04-10", 0.614], ["2020-04-11", 0.614], ["2020-04-12", 0.613], ["2020-04-12", 0.612], ["2020-04-14", 0.608], ["2020-04-14", 0.607], ["2020-04-15", 0.605], ["2020-04-16", 0.596], ["2020-04-17", 0.595], ["2020-04-18", 0.594], ["2020-04-18", 0.591], ["2020-04-19", 0.576], ["2020-04-20", 0.572], ["2020-04-21", 0.565], ["2020-04-21", 0.564], ["2020-04-22", 0.559], ["2020-04-23", 0.559], ["2020-04-23", 0.561], ["2020-04-24", 0.564], ["2020-04-25", 0.565], ["2020-04-26", 0.561], ["2020-04-26", 0.56], ["2020-04-27", 0.549], ["2020-04-28", 0.54], ["2020-04-29", 0.537], ["2020-04-30", 0.53], ["2020-04-30", 0.525], ["2020-05-01", 0.525], ["2020-05-02", 0.517], ["2020-05-03", 0.507], ["2020-05-03", 0.502], ["2020-05-04", 0.496], ["2020-05-05", 0.494], ["2020-05-06", 0.487], ["2020-05-07", 0.47], ["2020-05-08", 0.456], ["2020-05-09", 0.444], ["2020-05-10", 0.418], ["2020-05-11", 0.395], ["2020-05-12", 0.379], ["2020-05-13", 0.363], ["2020-05-14", 0.288], ["2020-05-15", 0.236]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3709/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 2020-02-19, the North Korean envoy to the UN claimed that North Korea has experienced no cases of COVID-19, the novel Coronavirus which appears to have emerged from Wuhan province in China late in 2019. The North Korean Government has, however, enacted a strict policy of quarantining persons entering the country found to be exhibiting signs of a fever. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also indicated that they do not have any evidence of an outbreak of COVID-19 in North Korea, though South Korean media has claimed that such an outbreak is indeed occurring, and news of it being repressed by the North Korean Government.
Regardless of whether the possible pandemic has reached North Korea already, such temperature-based quarantines are of indeterminate effectiveness. A growing body of evidence suggests that COVID-19 may be transmissible by asymptomatic carriers, rendering symptom-based quaratine measures effectively useless.
Thus, there are two questions of relevance to North Korea: first has or will COVID-19 reach its population in spite of the quarantine measures, and second, will the North Korean government affirm the breach? Alternately, will the WHO confirm a North Korean outbreak, regardless of whether the North Korean government announces it? Stated more succinctly,
Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?
This question resolves negatively if on 2020-05-17, no public announcements or press releases by either the WHO or North Korean government have been issued affirming that any cases of COVID-19 have been discovered in North Korea. This question retoactively resolves positively one hour before any such announcement is made or press release issued. | true | 2020-05-15 | Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-17 | 2020-02-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-25", 0.2], ["2020-02-26", 0.377], ["2020-02-27", 0.293], ["2020-02-28", 0.25], ["2020-02-28", 0.237], ["2020-02-29", 0.237], ["2020-03-01", 0.231], ["2020-03-01", 0.227], ["2020-03-02", 0.223], ["2020-03-03", 0.223], ["2020-03-04", 0.202], ["2020-03-04", 0.203], ["2020-03-05", 0.202], ["2020-03-06", 0.202], ["2020-03-07", 0.201], ["2020-03-08", 0.199], ["2020-03-09", 0.195], ["2020-03-10", 0.193], ["2020-03-11", 0.19], ["2020-03-11", 0.19], ["2020-03-12", 0.186], ["2020-03-13", 0.181], ["2020-03-14", 0.181], ["2020-03-14", 0.176], ["2020-03-15", 0.172], ["2020-03-16", 0.17], ["2020-03-17", 0.165], ["2020-03-17", 0.16], ["2020-03-18", 0.158], ["2020-03-19", 0.159], ["2020-03-20", 0.157], ["2020-03-21", 0.162], ["2020-03-22", 0.183], ["2020-03-23", 0.186], ["2020-03-23", 0.186], ["2020-03-24", 0.189], ["2020-03-26", 0.188], ["2020-03-26", 0.187], ["2020-03-27", 0.186], ["2020-03-28", 0.189], ["2020-03-29", 0.192], ["2020-03-30", 0.191], ["2020-03-30", 0.194], ["2020-03-31", 0.192], ["2020-04-01", 0.191], ["2020-04-02", 0.265], ["2020-04-02", 0.3], ["2020-04-03", 0.304], ["2020-04-04", 0.306], ["2020-04-05", 0.312], ["2020-04-06", 0.31], ["2020-04-06", 0.308], ["2020-04-07", 0.308], ["2020-04-08", 0.307], ["2020-04-09", 0.306], ["2020-04-10", 0.301], ["2020-04-11", 0.299], ["2020-04-11", 0.297], ["2020-04-12", 0.297], ["2020-04-13", 0.296], ["2020-04-13", 0.296], ["2020-04-14", 0.296], ["2020-04-15", 0.297], ["2020-04-16", 0.298], ["2020-04-17", 0.298], ["2020-04-17", 0.298], ["2020-04-18", 0.302], ["2020-04-19", 0.303], ["2020-04-19", 0.303], ["2020-04-20", 0.298], ["2020-04-21", 0.289], ["2020-04-22", 0.287], ["2020-04-23", 0.283], ["2020-04-24", 0.279], ["2020-04-24", 0.276], ["2020-04-25", 0.272], ["2020-04-26", 0.265], ["2020-04-26", 0.263], ["2020-04-27", 0.258], ["2020-04-28", 0.255], ["2020-04-29", 0.251], ["2020-04-30", 0.251], ["2020-05-01", 0.243], ["2020-05-01", 0.235], ["2020-05-02", 0.234], ["2020-05-03", 0.237], ["2020-05-04", 0.238], ["2020-05-04", 0.233], ["2020-05-05", 0.23], ["2020-05-06", 0.23], ["2020-05-07", 0.224], ["2020-05-08", 0.217], ["2020-05-09", 0.212], ["2020-05-10", 0.212], ["2020-05-11", 0.206], ["2020-05-12", 0.203], ["2020-05-13", 0.201], ["2020-05-14", 0.2], ["2020-05-15", 0.184], ["2020-05-16", 0.146], ["2020-05-17", 0.116]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3710/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials. These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released a video around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.
This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.
Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2020-05-17?
Resolution
This questions resolves positively if, before 2020-05-17, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (including the Epidemic Intelligence Service)
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (including the Health Threat Unit)
World Health Organization
The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
The Centre for Health Protection
Robert Koch Institute
The National Institute of Infectious Diseases
Public Health England
The National Centre for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea
The Public Health Agency of Canada
In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.
The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.
This question has a long-term sister. | true | 2020-05-17 | Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-02-23 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-25", 0.33], ["2020-02-26", 0.514], ["2020-02-26", 0.486], ["2020-02-27", 0.493], ["2020-02-28", 0.5], ["2020-02-28", 0.503], ["2020-02-29", 0.498], ["2020-03-01", 0.443], ["2020-03-01", 0.439], ["2020-03-02", 0.444], ["2020-03-02", 0.444], ["2020-03-03", 0.453], ["2020-03-03", 0.454], ["2020-03-04", 0.466], ["2020-03-05", 0.466], ["2020-03-05", 0.469], ["2020-03-06", 0.481], ["2020-03-06", 0.497], ["2020-03-07", 0.498], ["2020-03-08", 0.525], ["2020-03-08", 0.529], ["2020-03-09", 0.531], ["2020-03-09", 0.542], ["2020-03-10", 0.568], ["2020-03-11", 0.626], ["2020-03-11", 0.657], ["2020-03-12", 0.675], ["2020-03-12", 0.694], ["2020-03-13", 0.702], ["2020-03-13", 0.711], ["2020-03-14", 0.717], ["2020-03-15", 0.72], ["2020-03-15", 0.76], ["2020-03-16", 0.787], ["2020-03-16", 0.799], ["2020-03-17", 0.804], ["2020-03-18", 0.807], ["2020-03-18", 0.808], ["2020-03-19", 0.808], ["2020-03-20", 0.812], ["2020-03-21", 0.816], ["2020-03-21", 0.817], ["2020-03-22", 0.829], ["2020-03-22", 0.839], ["2020-03-23", 0.839], ["2020-03-24", 0.841], ["2020-03-24", 0.846], ["2020-03-25", 0.846], ["2020-03-26", 0.847], ["2020-03-26", 0.847], ["2020-03-27", 0.848], ["2020-03-28", 0.849], ["2020-03-28", 0.849], ["2020-03-29", 0.851], ["2020-03-30", 0.85], ["2020-03-31", 0.85], ["2020-04-01", 0.852], ["2020-04-01", 0.852], ["2020-04-02", 0.854], ["2020-04-02", 0.854], ["2020-04-03", 0.857], ["2020-04-03", 0.859], ["2020-04-03", 0.861], ["2020-04-04", 0.861], ["2020-04-04", 0.868], ["2020-04-05", 0.872], ["2020-04-06", 0.872], ["2020-04-07", 0.872], ["2020-04-08", 0.872], ["2020-04-08", 0.873], ["2020-04-09", 0.871], ["2020-04-10", 0.872], ["2020-04-11", 0.872], ["2020-04-11", 0.872], ["2020-04-12", 0.871], ["2020-04-13", 0.872], ["2020-04-14", 0.872], ["2020-04-15", 0.872], ["2020-04-15", 0.872], ["2020-04-16", 0.873], ["2020-04-16", 0.873], ["2020-04-17", 0.872], ["2020-04-18", 0.872], ["2020-04-18", 0.871], ["2020-04-19", 0.871], ["2020-04-20", 0.871], ["2020-04-20", 0.872], ["2020-04-21", 0.872], ["2020-04-21", 0.871], ["2020-04-22", 0.871], ["2020-04-23", 0.871], ["2020-04-24", 0.871], ["2020-04-25", 0.872], ["2020-04-25", 0.873], ["2020-04-26", 0.873], ["2020-04-27", 0.873], ["2020-04-28", 0.87], ["2020-04-29", 0.87], ["2020-04-29", 0.869], ["2020-04-30", 0.862], ["2020-05-01", 0.861]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3724/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | For the purpose of this question, only Metaculus accounts created prior to this question's opening date count. Users must comment on this post to be counted. Such comments should include:
The date on which the user received a positive test result for COVID-19.
Some sort of evidence to back up their claims, such as a photo of a doctor's note, ideally with a doctor's signature.
The evidence can be presented either publicly in comment itself or via private correspondence with site moderators. It is up to the judgment of the moderators to determine the legitimacy of claimed diagnoses.
Edit (4 April): Positive serology tests that establish, beyond reasonable doubt, that the user has had an infection, is sufficient for positive resolution. | true | 2020-05-01 | Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-07 | 2020-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-27", 0.43], ["2020-02-27", 0.358], ["2020-02-27", 0.386], ["2020-02-27", 0.353], ["2020-02-27", 0.376], ["2020-02-28", 0.376], ["2020-02-28", 0.375], ["2020-02-29", 0.381], ["2020-02-29", 0.384], ["2020-02-29", 0.386], ["2020-02-29", 0.395], ["2020-02-29", 0.401], ["2020-03-01", 0.401], ["2020-03-02", 0.399], ["2020-03-02", 0.398], ["2020-03-02", 0.401], ["2020-03-03", 0.401], ["2020-03-03", 0.387], ["2020-03-03", 0.393], ["2020-03-04", 0.393], ["2020-03-04", 0.396], ["2020-03-04", 0.396], ["2020-03-05", 0.402], ["2020-03-06", 0.403], ["2020-03-07", 0.402], ["2020-03-07", 0.403], ["2020-03-08", 0.406], ["2020-03-08", 0.407], ["2020-03-09", 0.406], ["2020-03-10", 0.396], ["2020-03-11", 0.392], ["2020-03-11", 0.392], ["2020-03-12", 0.392], ["2020-03-12", 0.393], ["2020-03-12", 0.39], ["2020-03-13", 0.389], ["2020-03-13", 0.388], ["2020-03-14", 0.389], ["2020-03-14", 0.389], ["2020-03-14", 0.392], ["2020-03-14", 0.392], ["2020-03-15", 0.401], ["2020-03-16", 0.415], ["2020-03-16", 0.415], ["2020-03-17", 0.415], ["2020-03-17", 0.415], ["2020-03-17", 0.413], ["2020-03-17", 0.413], ["2020-03-18", 0.412], ["2020-03-18", 0.417], ["2020-03-18", 0.423], ["2020-03-18", 0.425], ["2020-03-19", 0.425], ["2020-03-19", 0.425], ["2020-03-20", 0.423], ["2020-03-20", 0.42], ["2020-03-20", 0.421], ["2020-03-20", 0.431], ["2020-03-20", 0.428], ["2020-03-21", 0.432], ["2020-03-21", 0.432], ["2020-03-21", 0.444], ["2020-03-21", 0.441], ["2020-03-22", 0.437], ["2020-03-22", 0.439], ["2020-03-22", 0.438], ["2020-03-22", 0.442], ["2020-03-22", 0.435], ["2020-03-23", 0.426], ["2020-03-23", 0.428], ["2020-03-23", 0.428], ["2020-03-23", 0.429], ["2020-03-24", 0.429], ["2020-03-24", 0.428], ["2020-03-24", 0.426], ["2020-03-24", 0.427], ["2020-03-24", 0.427], ["2020-03-25", 0.428], ["2020-03-25", 0.427], ["2020-03-25", 0.426], ["2020-03-25", 0.427], ["2020-03-26", 0.429], ["2020-03-26", 0.434], ["2020-03-26", 0.436], ["2020-03-26", 0.433], ["2020-03-26", 0.433], ["2020-03-27", 0.434], ["2020-03-27", 0.433], ["2020-03-27", 0.431], ["2020-03-27", 0.431], ["2020-03-28", 0.429], ["2020-03-28", 0.429], ["2020-03-28", 0.43], ["2020-03-28", 0.431], ["2020-03-28", 0.431], ["2020-03-29", 0.427], ["2020-03-29", 0.429], ["2020-03-29", 0.429], ["2020-03-29", 0.43], ["2020-03-30", 0.437], ["2020-03-30", 0.436]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3732/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves unambiguously if Johns Hopkins or the CDC reports that the (cumulative) total COVID-19 cases exceeds 50,000 in the United States, on November 1st, 2020 at 10 AM GMT.
This question resolves positively if it resolves unambiguously and our existing question on Trump's reelection resolves positively. It resolves negatively if it resolves unambiguously and the aforementioned question on Trump's reelection resolves negatively. | true | 2020-03-30 | If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-28", 0.85], ["2020-03-01", 0.607], ["2020-03-03", 0.713], ["2020-03-06", 0.737], ["2020-03-07", 0.742], ["2020-03-09", 0.755], ["2020-03-11", 0.756], ["2020-03-12", 0.756], ["2020-03-14", 0.754], ["2020-03-16", 0.754], ["2020-03-17", 0.76], ["2020-03-19", 0.76], ["2020-03-22", 0.76], ["2020-03-23", 0.763], ["2020-03-25", 0.763], ["2020-03-26", 0.77], ["2020-03-28", 0.77], ["2020-03-30", 0.771], ["2020-04-01", 0.794], ["2020-04-03", 0.797], ["2020-04-04", 0.801], ["2020-04-05", 0.801], ["2020-04-08", 0.799], ["2020-04-10", 0.809], ["2020-04-11", 0.812], ["2020-04-17", 0.816], ["2020-04-18", 0.814], ["2020-04-21", 0.817], ["2020-04-22", 0.818], ["2020-04-23", 0.818], ["2020-04-25", 0.818], ["2020-04-26", 0.818], ["2020-04-29", 0.821], ["2020-05-01", 0.821], ["2020-05-08", 0.821], ["2020-05-09", 0.823], ["2020-05-11", 0.824], ["2020-05-15", 0.824], ["2020-05-17", 0.826], ["2020-05-25", 0.826], ["2020-05-28", 0.827], ["2020-05-29", 0.828], ["2020-06-02", 0.828], ["2020-06-04", 0.83], ["2020-06-05", 0.83], ["2020-06-13", 0.83], ["2020-06-19", 0.83], ["2020-07-05", 0.833], ["2020-07-07", 0.843], ["2020-07-09", 0.857], ["2020-07-16", 0.86], ["2020-07-18", 0.861], ["2020-07-19", 0.863], ["2020-07-23", 0.863], ["2020-07-26", 0.864], ["2020-07-31", 0.865], ["2020-08-06", 0.866], ["2020-08-14", 0.866], ["2020-08-14", 0.867], ["2020-08-19", 0.867], ["2020-08-26", 0.866], ["2020-09-03", 0.866], ["2020-09-07", 0.868], ["2020-09-08", 0.869], ["2020-09-15", 0.873], ["2020-09-18", 0.873], ["2020-09-21", 0.873], ["2020-09-24", 0.874], ["2020-09-26", 0.875], ["2020-09-29", 0.878], ["2020-09-30", 0.878], ["2020-10-04", 0.879], ["2020-10-05", 0.88], ["2020-10-09", 0.88], ["2020-10-09", 0.88], ["2020-10-19", 0.88], ["2020-10-21", 0.881], ["2020-10-24", 0.881], ["2020-11-03", 0.881], ["2020-11-04", 0.885], ["2020-11-07", 0.888], ["2020-11-08", 0.89], ["2020-11-18", 0.89], ["2020-11-20", 0.89], ["2020-11-24", 0.891], ["2020-11-26", 0.891], ["2020-12-02", 0.892], ["2020-12-03", 0.893], ["2020-12-06", 0.893], ["2020-12-07", 0.895], ["2020-12-12", 0.895], ["2020-12-15", 0.896], ["2020-12-17", 0.898], ["2020-12-19", 0.898], ["2020-12-21", 0.897], ["2020-12-23", 0.897], ["2020-12-24", 0.899], ["2020-12-26", 0.9], ["2020-12-29", 0.905], ["2020-12-31", 0.925], ["2021-01-01", 0.926]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3734/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Metaculus has generated a large number of questions about COVID-19, a concerning number of which resolve on a single data source: the JHU CSSE COVID-19 dashboard (and its underlying data). If it were to permanently break, cease being updated, or dramatically change format, it could put many of our COVID-19 questions in jeopardy of being resolved ambiguous.
Will the COVID-19 dashboard be maintained through 2020-12-31?
Resolution
The question resolves negatively if any of the following occur:
The dashboard is shut down with no clearly designated successor.
The dashboard is left unmaintained for a period of at least 14 consecutive days, starting at any time after 2020-02-26.
The dashboard is clearly broken on 2020-12-31.
The dashboard is paywalled on 2020-12-31.
Three or more Metaculus questions which were written to resolve based on data from the dashboard are resolved as "Ambiguous" because it was not possible to use the dashboard or its data to adjudicate the resolution.
Otherwise, this question resolves positively. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-06 | 2020-02-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-03", 0.2], ["2020-03-03", 0.314], ["2020-03-04", 0.354], ["2020-03-04", 0.342], ["2020-03-05", 0.346], ["2020-03-05", 0.363], ["2020-03-06", 0.391], ["2020-03-06", 0.4], ["2020-03-07", 0.403], ["2020-03-08", 0.411], ["2020-03-08", 0.409], ["2020-03-09", 0.409], ["2020-03-09", 0.41], ["2020-03-10", 0.403], ["2020-03-10", 0.397], ["2020-03-11", 0.394], ["2020-03-11", 0.391], ["2020-03-12", 0.391], ["2020-03-12", 0.388], ["2020-03-13", 0.388], ["2020-03-13", 0.374], ["2020-03-14", 0.372], ["2020-03-15", 0.38], ["2020-03-15", 0.382], ["2020-03-16", 0.387], ["2020-03-16", 0.386], ["2020-03-16", 0.387], ["2020-03-17", 0.379], ["2020-03-18", 0.375], ["2020-03-18", 0.372], ["2020-03-19", 0.38], ["2020-03-19", 0.386], ["2020-03-20", 0.387], ["2020-03-20", 0.381], ["2020-03-21", 0.367], ["2020-03-22", 0.362], ["2020-03-23", 0.355], ["2020-03-23", 0.355], ["2020-03-24", 0.354], ["2020-03-24", 0.352], ["2020-03-25", 0.357], ["2020-03-25", 0.352], ["2020-03-26", 0.352], ["2020-03-27", 0.352], ["2020-03-28", 0.35], ["2020-03-29", 0.35], ["2020-03-29", 0.349], ["2020-03-29", 0.348], ["2020-03-30", 0.348], ["2020-03-31", 0.346], ["2020-03-31", 0.346], ["2020-04-01", 0.347], ["2020-04-02", 0.342], ["2020-04-02", 0.336], ["2020-04-03", 0.328], ["2020-04-03", 0.327], ["2020-04-04", 0.323], ["2020-04-04", 0.31], ["2020-04-05", 0.309], ["2020-04-05", 0.309], ["2020-04-07", 0.309], ["2020-04-08", 0.307], ["2020-04-08", 0.305], ["2020-04-09", 0.304], ["2020-04-09", 0.305], ["2020-04-10", 0.305], ["2020-04-10", 0.304], ["2020-04-11", 0.304], ["2020-04-11", 0.3], ["2020-04-12", 0.297], ["2020-04-13", 0.297], ["2020-04-14", 0.278], ["2020-04-14", 0.261], ["2020-04-14", 0.254], ["2020-04-15", 0.247], ["2020-04-15", 0.24], ["2020-04-16", 0.235], ["2020-04-16", 0.234], ["2020-04-17", 0.234], ["2020-04-17", 0.232], ["2020-04-18", 0.232], ["2020-04-19", 0.232], ["2020-04-19", 0.232], ["2020-04-20", 0.231], ["2020-04-20", 0.228], ["2020-04-21", 0.227], ["2020-04-21", 0.224], ["2020-04-22", 0.224], ["2020-04-23", 0.224], ["2020-04-23", 0.221], ["2020-04-24", 0.212], ["2020-04-24", 0.206], ["2020-04-25", 0.203], ["2020-04-26", 0.199], ["2020-04-26", 0.197], ["2020-04-27", 0.194], ["2020-04-28", 0.189], ["2020-04-29", 0.189], ["2020-04-30", 0.176], ["2020-04-30", 0.167], ["2020-04-30", 0.168]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3737/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Novel coronavirus (COVID-19), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.
A situation summary from the US Centers for Disease Control is available here.
Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?
The question resolves positively if a major newspaper (NYT, WaPo, etc.) reports about a food shortage, i.e. low to none stocks of food, drink and other necessities in shops, as judged by a Metaculus admin. The shortage must occur before before June 6th and last for 3 or more days. This should directly or indirectly caused by COVID-19 in a major metropolitan area. Note that for the purpose of this question, we are disqualifying Wuhan from counting toward positive resolutions.
A metropolitan area is considered major if it has population greater than 2M people as reported by wikipedia. | true | 2020-04-30 | Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-20 | 2020-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-01", 0.225], ["2020-03-01", 0.457], ["2020-03-01", 0.457], ["2020-03-01", 0.377], ["2020-03-01", 0.377], ["2020-03-01", 0.333], ["2020-03-01", 0.333], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.286], ["2020-03-03", 0.286], ["2020-03-03", 0.275], ["2020-03-03", 0.269], ["2020-03-03", 0.279], ["2020-03-03", 0.287], ["2020-03-03", 0.287], ["2020-03-03", 0.308], ["2020-03-04", 0.314], ["2020-03-04", 0.314], ["2020-03-05", 0.34], ["2020-03-05", 0.337], ["2020-03-05", 0.342], ["2020-03-05", 0.342], ["2020-03-05", 0.346], ["2020-03-05", 0.358], ["2020-03-06", 0.358], ["2020-03-06", 0.362], ["2020-03-06", 0.369], ["2020-03-07", 0.372], ["2020-03-08", 0.372], ["2020-03-08", 0.371], ["2020-03-08", 0.377], ["2020-03-08", 0.384], ["2020-03-08", 0.384], ["2020-03-08", 0.397], ["2020-03-08", 0.409], ["2020-03-09", 0.413], ["2020-03-09", 0.413], ["2020-03-09", 0.415], ["2020-03-09", 0.424], ["2020-03-10", 0.424], ["2020-03-10", 0.426], ["2020-03-10", 0.431], ["2020-03-10", 0.424], ["2020-03-11", 0.426], ["2020-03-11", 0.426], ["2020-03-11", 0.431], ["2020-03-11", 0.434], ["2020-03-11", 0.439], ["2020-03-11", 0.447], ["2020-03-11", 0.447], ["2020-03-11", 0.45], ["2020-03-12", 0.465], ["2020-03-12", 0.469], ["2020-03-12", 0.471], ["2020-03-12", 0.484], ["2020-03-12", 0.485], ["2020-03-13", 0.494], ["2020-03-13", 0.503], ["2020-03-14", 0.51], ["2020-03-14", 0.516], ["2020-03-14", 0.516], ["2020-03-14", 0.53], ["2020-03-14", 0.53], ["2020-03-14", 0.532], ["2020-03-15", 0.527], ["2020-03-15", 0.536], ["2020-03-15", 0.55], ["2020-03-15", 0.551], ["2020-03-15", 0.553], ["2020-03-15", 0.556], ["2020-03-15", 0.569], ["2020-03-15", 0.569], ["2020-03-15", 0.58], ["2020-03-15", 0.581], ["2020-03-15", 0.586], ["2020-03-15", 0.593], ["2020-03-16", 0.593], ["2020-03-16", 0.595], ["2020-03-16", 0.598], ["2020-03-16", 0.6], ["2020-03-16", 0.609], ["2020-03-16", 0.616], ["2020-03-16", 0.618], ["2020-03-16", 0.63], ["2020-03-16", 0.657], ["2020-03-17", 0.663], ["2020-03-17", 0.668], ["2020-03-17", 0.668], ["2020-03-17", 0.684], ["2020-03-17", 0.684], ["2020-03-17", 0.691], ["2020-03-17", 0.692], ["2020-03-17", 0.693], ["2020-03-17", 0.699], ["2020-03-17", 0.699], ["2020-03-17", 0.706], ["2020-03-17", 0.712], ["2020-03-17", 0.718]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3744/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | SARS-CoV-2, as denoted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, also known as 2019-nCoV, Wuhan coronavirus, or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. It causes the infectious disease COVID-19.
So far, China has already implemented lockdowns of Wuhan and surrounding towns, covering an unprecedented number of people (>50 million). Italy has also implemented similar restrictions.
Resolution will be determined by whether at least three reliable news sources say that an entire town, or the majority of a town, in the US has placed under government-mandated "lockdown", "quarantine", or "cordon sanitaire".
A town is defined as any locality listed as an incorporated place or minor civil division by the US census. | true | 2020-03-17 | Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-31 | 2020-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-01", 0.31], ["2020-03-01", 0.56], ["2020-03-01", 0.528], ["2020-03-01", 0.482], ["2020-03-01", 0.482], ["2020-03-02", 0.506], ["2020-03-03", 0.499], ["2020-03-03", 0.512], ["2020-03-03", 0.512], ["2020-03-03", 0.5], ["2020-03-03", 0.5], ["2020-03-04", 0.498], ["2020-03-04", 0.489], ["2020-03-05", 0.489], ["2020-03-05", 0.499], ["2020-03-06", 0.503], ["2020-03-06", 0.527], ["2020-03-06", 0.527], ["2020-03-07", 0.531], ["2020-03-07", 0.531], ["2020-03-07", 0.538], ["2020-03-07", 0.555], ["2020-03-08", 0.564], ["2020-03-08", 0.567], ["2020-03-08", 0.565], ["2020-03-09", 0.565], ["2020-03-10", 0.568], ["2020-03-11", 0.584], ["2020-03-12", 0.58], ["2020-03-13", 0.58], ["2020-03-14", 0.591], ["2020-03-15", 0.589], ["2020-03-16", 0.591], ["2020-03-16", 0.597], ["2020-03-16", 0.597], ["2020-03-16", 0.609], ["2020-03-17", 0.609], ["2020-03-17", 0.61], ["2020-03-17", 0.624], ["2020-03-17", 0.642], ["2020-03-17", 0.648], ["2020-03-17", 0.646], ["2020-03-18", 0.655], ["2020-03-18", 0.659], ["2020-03-18", 0.662], ["2020-03-18", 0.671], ["2020-03-18", 0.68], ["2020-03-19", 0.68], ["2020-03-19", 0.688], ["2020-03-20", 0.688], ["2020-03-20", 0.689], ["2020-03-20", 0.689], ["2020-03-20", 0.691], ["2020-03-20", 0.69], ["2020-03-21", 0.689], ["2020-03-21", 0.692], ["2020-03-21", 0.692], ["2020-03-21", 0.695], ["2020-03-21", 0.697], ["2020-03-22", 0.698], ["2020-03-22", 0.698], ["2020-03-23", 0.709], ["2020-03-23", 0.709], ["2020-03-23", 0.711], ["2020-03-23", 0.705], ["2020-03-23", 0.714], ["2020-03-24", 0.717], ["2020-03-25", 0.716], ["2020-03-25", 0.721], ["2020-03-26", 0.721], ["2020-03-26", 0.721], ["2020-03-26", 0.721], ["2020-03-27", 0.72], ["2020-03-27", 0.718], ["2020-03-28", 0.717], ["2020-03-28", 0.717], ["2020-03-28", 0.721], ["2020-03-28", 0.73], ["2020-03-29", 0.732], ["2020-03-29", 0.737], ["2020-03-29", 0.737], ["2020-03-29", 0.744], ["2020-03-29", 0.744], ["2020-03-29", 0.751], ["2020-03-29", 0.751], ["2020-03-29", 0.758], ["2020-03-29", 0.761], ["2020-03-29", 0.762], ["2020-03-29", 0.769], ["2020-03-29", 0.77], ["2020-03-29", 0.773], ["2020-03-29", 0.773], ["2020-03-29", 0.781], ["2020-03-29", 0.786], ["2020-03-29", 0.795], ["2020-03-30", 0.798], ["2020-03-30", 0.799], ["2020-03-30", 0.803], ["2020-03-30", 0.804], ["2020-03-30", 0.808], ["2020-03-30", 0.812]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3748/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Airbnb, is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are over 6 million Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform reportedly has more listings than the largest hotel chains.
Earlier this month, Airbnb paused suspended bookings in Beijing with check-in dates from Feb. 7 to April 30, following government guidance to companies in the short-term rental industry. Bookings have also been suspended elsewhere in China: for Wuxi until Feb. 20; Yongchuan District (in Chongqing) until Feb. 29; and Wuhan until March 31.
Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas in any country other than Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?
This question resolves positively if Airbnb reports that it is suspending bookings for at least a week in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China before 11 AM GMT, June 27th. Positive resolution requires that in each metropolitan area, at least 25% of bookings are subject to suspension.
A major metropolitan area here is defined as any city with a population greater than 2M. The relevant reporting must cite COVID-19-related concerns as the primary reason for its suspension. This suspension may be voluntary (in case of precautionary measures) or be required by a government. | true | 2020-06-24 | Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-23 | 2020-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-01", 0.36], ["2020-03-01", 0.36], ["2020-03-01", 0.443], ["2020-03-01", 0.404], ["2020-03-02", 0.47], ["2020-03-02", 0.496], ["2020-03-03", 0.498], ["2020-03-03", 0.514], ["2020-03-03", 0.503], ["2020-03-03", 0.494], ["2020-03-04", 0.494], ["2020-03-04", 0.47], ["2020-03-05", 0.484], ["2020-03-05", 0.491], ["2020-03-06", 0.481], ["2020-03-06", 0.497], ["2020-03-06", 0.497], ["2020-03-07", 0.508], ["2020-03-07", 0.508], ["2020-03-07", 0.514], ["2020-03-07", 0.527], ["2020-03-07", 0.527], ["2020-03-08", 0.534], ["2020-03-08", 0.532], ["2020-03-09", 0.534], ["2020-03-09", 0.534], ["2020-03-09", 0.539], ["2020-03-09", 0.534], ["2020-03-10", 0.547], ["2020-03-11", 0.544], ["2020-03-12", 0.544], ["2020-03-13", 0.55], ["2020-03-15", 0.55], ["2020-03-16", 0.553], ["2020-03-16", 0.553], ["2020-03-17", 0.553], ["2020-03-17", 0.572], ["2020-03-18", 0.572], ["2020-03-18", 0.574], ["2020-03-18", 0.577], ["2020-03-18", 0.591], ["2020-03-19", 0.592], ["2020-03-19", 0.595], ["2020-03-19", 0.596], ["2020-03-20", 0.596], ["2020-03-20", 0.595], ["2020-03-20", 0.601], ["2020-03-20", 0.593], ["2020-03-20", 0.581], ["2020-03-20", 0.581], ["2020-03-20", 0.585], ["2020-03-20", 0.585], ["2020-03-20", 0.592], ["2020-03-20", 0.592], ["2020-03-21", 0.591], ["2020-03-21", 0.589], ["2020-03-21", 0.589], ["2020-03-21", 0.596], ["2020-03-21", 0.596], ["2020-03-21", 0.598], ["2020-03-21", 0.598], ["2020-03-21", 0.598], ["2020-03-21", 0.595], ["2020-03-22", 0.594], ["2020-03-22", 0.593], ["2020-03-22", 0.597], ["2020-03-22", 0.604], ["2020-03-22", 0.604], ["2020-03-23", 0.615]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3750/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Airbnb, is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are over 6 million Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform reportedly has more listings than the largest hotel chains.
Earlier this month, Airbnb paused suspended bookings in Beijing with check-in dates from Feb. 7 to April 30, following government guidance to companies in the short-term rental industry. Bookings have also been suspended elsewhere in China: for Wuxi until Feb. 20; Yongchuan District (in Chongqing) until Feb. 29; and Wuhan until March 31.
In Malaysia, the Malaysian Association of Hotels has urged Airbnb to suspend operations immediately to help the government contain the spread of COVID-19. This followed after a person who occupied an Airbnb residential property in Kuala Lumpur reportedly being hospitalised as a COVID-19 victim.
Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country with at least 10M citizens due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?
This question resolves positively if Airbnb reports that it is suspending bookings for at least a week in an entire country or administrative region, with at least 10M citizens, before 11 AM GMT, June 27th. Positive resolution requires at least 50% of bookings are subject to suspension.
The relevant reporting must cite COVID-19-related concerns as the primary reason for its suspension. This suspension may be voluntary (in case of precautionary measures) or be required by a government. | true | 2020-06-24 | Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-12 | 2020-02-28 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-29", 0.3], ["2020-02-29", 0.442], ["2020-02-29", 0.446], ["2020-02-29", 0.446], ["2020-02-29", 0.472], ["2020-02-29", 0.483], ["2020-02-29", 0.483], ["2020-02-29", 0.513], ["2020-02-29", 0.505], ["2020-02-29", 0.532], ["2020-02-29", 0.54], ["2020-02-29", 0.567], ["2020-02-29", 0.573], ["2020-02-29", 0.592], ["2020-02-29", 0.591], ["2020-02-29", 0.604], ["2020-02-29", 0.608], ["2020-03-01", 0.577], ["2020-03-01", 0.593], ["2020-03-01", 0.593], ["2020-03-01", 0.602], ["2020-03-01", 0.603], ["2020-03-01", 0.614], ["2020-03-02", 0.61], ["2020-03-02", 0.613], ["2020-03-02", 0.613], ["2020-03-02", 0.618], ["2020-03-02", 0.617], ["2020-03-02", 0.618], ["2020-03-02", 0.635], ["2020-03-02", 0.637], ["2020-03-02", 0.638], ["2020-03-02", 0.638], ["2020-03-02", 0.64], ["2020-03-02", 0.637], ["2020-03-02", 0.635], ["2020-03-03", 0.64], ["2020-03-03", 0.641], ["2020-03-03", 0.64], ["2020-03-03", 0.64], ["2020-03-03", 0.638], ["2020-03-04", 0.64], ["2020-03-05", 0.64], ["2020-03-05", 0.638], ["2020-03-05", 0.638], ["2020-03-05", 0.635], ["2020-03-05", 0.635], ["2020-03-05", 0.654], ["2020-03-06", 0.656], ["2020-03-06", 0.657], ["2020-03-06", 0.659], ["2020-03-06", 0.66], ["2020-03-06", 0.662], ["2020-03-06", 0.666], ["2020-03-06", 0.672], ["2020-03-07", 0.672], ["2020-03-07", 0.677], ["2020-03-07", 0.679], ["2020-03-07", 0.684], ["2020-03-07", 0.684], ["2020-03-07", 0.686], ["2020-03-07", 0.695], ["2020-03-07", 0.696], ["2020-03-07", 0.698], ["2020-03-07", 0.698], ["2020-03-07", 0.7], ["2020-03-07", 0.705], ["2020-03-07", 0.716], ["2020-03-08", 0.719], ["2020-03-08", 0.719], ["2020-03-08", 0.724], ["2020-03-08", 0.726], ["2020-03-08", 0.724], ["2020-03-09", 0.724], ["2020-03-09", 0.725], ["2020-03-09", 0.721], ["2020-03-09", 0.721], ["2020-03-09", 0.724], ["2020-03-10", 0.726], ["2020-03-10", 0.729], ["2020-03-10", 0.728], ["2020-03-10", 0.729], ["2020-03-10", 0.729], ["2020-03-10", 0.731], ["2020-03-10", 0.734], ["2020-03-10", 0.732], ["2020-03-10", 0.733], ["2020-03-10", 0.731], ["2020-03-11", 0.731], ["2020-03-11", 0.731], ["2020-03-11", 0.729], ["2020-03-11", 0.729], ["2020-03-11", 0.729], ["2020-03-11", 0.729], ["2020-03-11", 0.728], ["2020-03-11", 0.73], ["2020-03-11", 0.736], ["2020-03-11", 0.74], ["2020-03-11", 0.743], ["2020-03-11", 0.743], ["2020-03-12", 0.744]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3752/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The CDC's level 3 Travel Health Notice advises against non-essential travel:
Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.
As of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues level 3 travel health notices for China and Venezuela.
This question will resolve positively if the CDC issues a Warning Level 3 Travel Health notice for France (or any part thereof) before 00:00 GMT on May 1st, due to the 2019 novel coronavirus. Determination of the answer will be made by consulting the relevant CDC noticeboard. Positive resolution requires the CDC mentioning the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in their reasons for issuing the Level 3 Travel Health Notice.
This question resolves ambiguously if the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France before 5PM GMT on the 29th of February. | true | 2020-03-12 | Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-18 | 2020-02-28 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-29", 0.45], ["2020-02-29", 0.345], ["2020-02-29", 0.396], ["2020-02-29", 0.413], ["2020-02-29", 0.385], ["2020-02-29", 0.385], ["2020-03-01", 0.377], ["2020-03-01", 0.371], ["2020-03-01", 0.354], ["2020-03-01", 0.357], ["2020-03-01", 0.353], ["2020-03-01", 0.359], ["2020-03-01", 0.356], ["2020-03-02", 0.356], ["2020-03-02", 0.357], ["2020-03-02", 0.374], ["2020-03-02", 0.374], ["2020-03-03", 0.373], ["2020-03-03", 0.371], ["2020-03-03", 0.366], ["2020-03-03", 0.365], ["2020-03-03", 0.361], ["2020-03-04", 0.374], ["2020-03-04", 0.374], ["2020-03-04", 0.367], ["2020-03-04", 0.366], ["2020-03-05", 0.374], ["2020-03-05", 0.386], ["2020-03-05", 0.398], ["2020-03-05", 0.43], ["2020-03-06", 0.432], ["2020-03-06", 0.432], ["2020-03-06", 0.438], ["2020-03-06", 0.44], ["2020-03-06", 0.442], ["2020-03-06", 0.483], ["2020-03-07", 0.483], ["2020-03-07", 0.493], ["2020-03-07", 0.493], ["2020-03-07", 0.494], ["2020-03-07", 0.454], ["2020-03-07", 0.431], ["2020-03-08", 0.421], ["2020-03-08", 0.426], ["2020-03-08", 0.426], ["2020-03-08", 0.411], ["2020-03-08", 0.385], ["2020-03-08", 0.383], ["2020-03-09", 0.383], ["2020-03-09", 0.38], ["2020-03-09", 0.379], ["2020-03-09", 0.386], ["2020-03-09", 0.383], ["2020-03-09", 0.384], ["2020-03-09", 0.379], ["2020-03-10", 0.375], ["2020-03-10", 0.375], ["2020-03-10", 0.375], ["2020-03-10", 0.371], ["2020-03-11", 0.369], ["2020-03-11", 0.37], ["2020-03-11", 0.37], ["2020-03-11", 0.37], ["2020-03-11", 0.378], ["2020-03-12", 0.382], ["2020-03-12", 0.385], ["2020-03-12", 0.385], ["2020-03-12", 0.397], ["2020-03-12", 0.409], ["2020-03-12", 0.411], ["2020-03-13", 0.412], ["2020-03-13", 0.414], ["2020-03-13", 0.419], ["2020-03-13", 0.422], ["2020-03-13", 0.424], ["2020-03-13", 0.425], ["2020-03-14", 0.425], ["2020-03-14", 0.426], ["2020-03-14", 0.428], ["2020-03-14", 0.43], ["2020-03-14", 0.431], ["2020-03-14", 0.435], ["2020-03-14", 0.434], ["2020-03-15", 0.433], ["2020-03-15", 0.434], ["2020-03-15", 0.434], ["2020-03-15", 0.432], ["2020-03-15", 0.433], ["2020-03-15", 0.44], ["2020-03-16", 0.44], ["2020-03-16", 0.459], ["2020-03-16", 0.475], ["2020-03-17", 0.494], ["2020-03-17", 0.502], ["2020-03-17", 0.508], ["2020-03-17", 0.507], ["2020-03-17", 0.507], ["2020-03-17", 0.551], ["2020-03-18", 0.588], ["2020-03-18", 0.598], ["2020-03-18", 0.61]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3753/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Eurovision Song Contest 2020 will be the 65th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. The contest will take place in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Its three events take place at the following dates:
Semi-final 1 12 May
Semi-final 2 14 May
Final 16 May
Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?
The question resolves negative if the Eurovision takes place on the originally scheduled location, Rotterdam Ahoy, and the scheduled dates. If any of the events are cancelled, their dates are moved, or the venue is moved away from Rotterdam, and a stated reason for the change is COVID-19 (as judged by Metaculus), it resolves positive.
Clarification added 7th of March, 2020
This question resolves negatively if the event takes place on the originally scheduled location, Rotterdam Ahoy, and the scheduled dates, with or without a live audience.
This question resolves ambiguously if the conference moves to a different venue within Rotterdam (and a stated reason for the change is COVID-19), provided that the other conditions for negative resolution are not satisfied. | true | 2020-05-09 | Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-05 | 2020-02-28 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-29", 0.7], ["2020-02-29", 0.481], ["2020-02-29", 0.467], ["2020-02-29", 0.518], ["2020-02-29", 0.552], ["2020-02-29", 0.568], ["2020-02-29", 0.59], ["2020-02-29", 0.583], ["2020-02-29", 0.583], ["2020-02-29", 0.542], ["2020-02-29", 0.55], ["2020-02-29", 0.552], ["2020-02-29", 0.557], ["2020-02-29", 0.561], ["2020-02-29", 0.568], ["2020-02-29", 0.568], ["2020-02-29", 0.565], ["2020-02-29", 0.55], ["2020-02-29", 0.551], ["2020-02-29", 0.546], ["2020-02-29", 0.543], ["2020-02-29", 0.549], ["2020-02-29", 0.547], ["2020-03-01", 0.535], ["2020-03-01", 0.535], ["2020-03-01", 0.542], ["2020-03-01", 0.542], ["2020-03-01", 0.543], ["2020-03-01", 0.545], ["2020-03-01", 0.543], ["2020-03-01", 0.545], ["2020-03-01", 0.547], ["2020-03-01", 0.551], ["2020-03-01", 0.557], ["2020-03-01", 0.559], ["2020-03-01", 0.559], ["2020-03-01", 0.545], ["2020-03-01", 0.536], ["2020-03-01", 0.534], ["2020-03-02", 0.534], ["2020-03-02", 0.534], ["2020-03-02", 0.535], ["2020-03-02", 0.535], ["2020-03-02", 0.541], ["2020-03-02", 0.55], ["2020-03-02", 0.55], ["2020-03-02", 0.555], ["2020-03-02", 0.56], ["2020-03-02", 0.56], ["2020-03-02", 0.569], ["2020-03-02", 0.57], ["2020-03-02", 0.574], ["2020-03-02", 0.58], ["2020-03-02", 0.58], ["2020-03-02", 0.593], ["2020-03-02", 0.594], ["2020-03-02", 0.594], ["2020-03-02", 0.598], ["2020-03-02", 0.607], ["2020-03-03", 0.605], ["2020-03-03", 0.607], ["2020-03-03", 0.61], ["2020-03-03", 0.613], ["2020-03-03", 0.613], ["2020-03-03", 0.613], ["2020-03-03", 0.613], ["2020-03-03", 0.613], ["2020-03-03", 0.619], ["2020-03-03", 0.62], ["2020-03-03", 0.626], ["2020-03-03", 0.627], ["2020-03-03", 0.633], ["2020-03-03", 0.633], ["2020-03-03", 0.642], ["2020-03-03", 0.652], ["2020-03-03", 0.654], ["2020-03-03", 0.656], ["2020-03-03", 0.658], ["2020-03-03", 0.658], ["2020-03-03", 0.673], ["2020-03-04", 0.677], ["2020-03-04", 0.677], ["2020-03-04", 0.677], ["2020-03-04", 0.685], ["2020-03-04", 0.688], ["2020-03-04", 0.691], ["2020-03-04", 0.695], ["2020-03-04", 0.698], ["2020-03-04", 0.698], ["2020-03-04", 0.699], ["2020-03-04", 0.699], ["2020-03-04", 0.701], ["2020-03-04", 0.703], ["2020-03-04", 0.706], ["2020-03-04", 0.706], ["2020-03-04", 0.707], ["2020-03-04", 0.71], ["2020-03-04", 0.716], ["2020-03-04", 0.717], ["2020-03-04", 0.717], ["2020-03-04", 0.718]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3756/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global San Francisco 2020 is scheduled to be held in San Francisco, USA from to 20th 22nd of March 2020.
Will EA Global: San Francisco 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?
The question resolves negative if the EA Global San Francisco 2020 takes place on the originally scheduled location at the scheduled dates. If the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or the venue is moved away from San Francisco, and a stated reason for the change is COVID-19 (as judged by Metaculus), it resolves positive. | true | 2020-03-05 | Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
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François Chollet, creator of the Keras neural network library, in the paper "On measuring intelligence" describes in detail the context and motivation behind a benchmark that is supposed to put the general, broad intelligence of machines to test.
The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) provides a benchmark to measure AI skill-acquisition on unknown tasks, with the constraint that only a handful of demonstrations are shown to learn a complex task. The setup is similar to the Raven's Progressive Matrices IQ test. You can inspect training examples here.
Recently François Chollet started a Kaggle competition based on ARC with sum of prizes amounting to 20 000$. | Science & Tech | This question asks whether the 1st place winner will pass 0.8 or less top-3 error rate as defined in the Kaggle competition evaluation? The question will resolve positive if the threshold is passed, negative otherwise. To achieve this threshold, an AI will need to answer correctly after 3 tries in only 20% of tasks. This threshold will also unlock an additional $3,000 for the top competitors.
This question will close on May 18th 2020, the entry deadline for the competition, and resolve as soon as the final result are known.
ETA: Closing date changed. | true | 2020-05-17 | Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-04 | 2020-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-03", 0.66], ["2020-03-03", 0.66], ["2020-03-03", 0.667], ["2020-03-03", 0.625], ["2020-03-03", 0.68], ["2020-03-03", 0.68], ["2020-03-03", 0.622], ["2020-03-03", 0.628], ["2020-03-03", 0.597], ["2020-03-03", 0.557], ["2020-03-03", 0.557], ["2020-03-03", 0.546], ["2020-03-03", 0.546], ["2020-03-03", 0.562], ["2020-03-03", 0.562], ["2020-03-04", 0.551], ["2020-03-04", 0.548], ["2020-03-04", 0.548], ["2020-03-04", 0.551], ["2020-03-04", 0.561], ["2020-03-04", 0.584], ["2020-03-04", 0.578], ["2020-03-04", 0.586], ["2020-03-04", 0.597], ["2020-03-04", 0.594], ["2020-03-04", 0.6], ["2020-03-04", 0.614], ["2020-03-04", 0.624], ["2020-03-04", 0.626], ["2020-03-04", 0.626], ["2020-03-04", 0.614], ["2020-03-04", 0.614], ["2020-03-04", 0.592], ["2020-03-04", 0.602], ["2020-03-04", 0.613], ["2020-03-04", 0.616], ["2020-03-04", 0.616], ["2020-03-04", 0.616], ["2020-03-04", 0.622], ["2020-03-04", 0.634], ["2020-03-04", 0.641], ["2020-03-04", 0.648], ["2020-03-04", 0.654], ["2020-03-04", 0.654], ["2020-03-04", 0.667], ["2020-03-04", 0.685], ["2020-03-04", 0.685], ["2020-03-04", 0.688], ["2020-03-04", 0.699], ["2020-03-04", 0.696], ["2020-03-04", 0.696], ["2020-03-04", 0.699], ["2020-03-04", 0.699], ["2020-03-04", 0.704], ["2020-03-04", 0.701], ["2020-03-04", 0.705], ["2020-03-04", 0.705], ["2020-03-04", 0.702], ["2020-03-04", 0.708], ["2020-03-04", 0.715], ["2020-03-04", 0.702], ["2020-03-04", 0.701], ["2020-03-04", 0.701], ["2020-03-04", 0.702], ["2020-03-04", 0.696], ["2020-03-04", 0.696], ["2020-03-04", 0.712], ["2020-03-04", 0.707], ["2020-03-04", 0.705], ["2020-03-04", 0.702], ["2020-03-04", 0.7], ["2020-03-04", 0.702], ["2020-03-04", 0.702], ["2020-03-04", 0.699]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3776/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Michael Bloomberg is the majority owner and co-founder of Bloomberg L.P., was the mayor of New York City from 2002 to 2013, and is currently a candidate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries.
Will Michael Bloomberg have dropped out of the Presidential race March the 13th, 11:59PM EST?
This resolves positive if before March 13 11:59PM EST, Michael Bloomberg has claimed to no longer intend to participate as a candidate for the Democratic Party nomination for president of the United States. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports. | true | 2020-03-11 | [Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th? | metaculus | 1 |
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Early estimation of the fatality rate put it around 2% (wikipedia), but this hides very high age-heterogeneity, the Chinese CDC estimating it at ~0.2% for people under 40, and ~15% for people 80+ years old.
It has been remarked that the candidates for the 2020 US Presidential election are rather old. On the Democratic side, most of the remaining major candidates as of this question's writing are over 70 (Tulsi Gabbard is 38, but very unlikely to win). On the other side, Donald Trump is 74.
Question: Will all major candidates for the US Presidential election survive the COVID-19 epidemic?
Resolution:
This resolves negative if any of {Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders} are reported by reputable media sources to have died as a result of COVID-19 in 2020, positive otherwise.
This resolves negative retroactively one week before the qualifying event, or positive on 2021-01-05. | true | 2020-09-01 | Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic? | metaculus | 1 |
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A number of nation-states, including Japan and Italy, have closed their schools in an attempt to curb COVID-19 infections.
This question asks if New York City, the largest city in the United States, will close its public schools due to COVID-19 in the year 2020. New York State has has eleven confirmed infections as of March 4, 2020. The town of Hastings-on-Hudson, 20km north of New York City, has announced it will close its public schools for two days as a precaution against COVID-19.
Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?
Question resolves positively if >50% of NYC public schools (including primary, middle, and high-school level) are closed for at least one full day due to COVID-19 before January 1, 2021. Specifically, this resolves positively if
at least 50% of NYC public schools are closed simultaneously for at least one day;
at least 60% of schools NYC public schools are closed for at least one day for any non-overlapping time-window in a 7-day period;
and negatively otherwise.
Closures of NYC public schools for other reasons are not sufficient to resolve yes. Resolution is by credible news reports or by reports by the New York State government agencies. % of schools is taken here by number of schools, not by number of students. | true | 2020-03-15 | Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-13 | 2020-03-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-09", 0.25], ["2020-03-11", 0.428], ["2020-03-12", 0.439], ["2020-03-14", 0.431], ["2020-03-15", 0.462], ["2020-03-16", 0.446], ["2020-03-18", 0.425], ["2020-03-19", 0.409], ["2020-03-21", 0.408], ["2020-03-22", 0.391], ["2020-03-23", 0.373], ["2020-03-25", 0.388], ["2020-03-26", 0.385], ["2020-03-28", 0.388], ["2020-03-30", 0.423], ["2020-03-31", 0.44], ["2020-04-01", 0.44], ["2020-04-03", 0.441], ["2020-04-04", 0.441], ["2020-04-05", 0.441], ["2020-04-07", 0.576], ["2020-04-08", 0.582], ["2020-04-11", 0.561], ["2020-04-12", 0.56], ["2020-04-13", 0.548], ["2020-04-14", 0.551], ["2020-04-15", 0.55], ["2020-04-17", 0.541], ["2020-04-18", 0.547], ["2020-04-21", 0.545], ["2020-04-25", 0.546], ["2020-04-29", 0.547], ["2020-05-01", 0.548], ["2020-05-07", 0.548], ["2020-05-22", 0.55], ["2020-05-24", 0.459], ["2020-05-26", 0.443], ["2020-05-28", 0.443], ["2020-05-29", 0.443], ["2020-05-31", 0.441], ["2020-06-01", 0.441], ["2020-06-02", 0.439], ["2020-06-04", 0.439], ["2020-06-05", 0.435], ["2020-06-06", 0.438], ["2020-06-07", 0.441], ["2020-06-09", 0.445], ["2020-06-11", 0.445], ["2020-06-16", 0.445], ["2020-06-16", 0.447], ["2020-06-19", 0.449], ["2020-06-23", 0.449], ["2020-06-24", 0.45], ["2020-06-26", 0.45], ["2020-06-28", 0.45], ["2020-06-28", 0.452], ["2020-06-30", 0.452], ["2020-07-02", 0.452], ["2020-07-04", 0.453], ["2020-07-06", 0.457], ["2020-07-08", 0.458], ["2020-07-13", 0.458], ["2020-07-22", 0.459], ["2020-07-28", 0.46], ["2020-08-01", 0.462], ["2020-08-02", 0.462], ["2020-08-13", 0.463], ["2020-08-18", 0.464], ["2020-08-19", 0.477], ["2020-08-20", 0.478], ["2020-08-22", 0.481], ["2020-08-23", 0.482], ["2020-08-25", 0.482], ["2020-08-29", 0.481], ["2020-08-31", 0.481], ["2020-09-03", 0.482], ["2020-09-03", 0.484], ["2020-09-10", 0.487], ["2020-09-12", 0.487], ["2020-09-13", 0.487], ["2020-09-17", 0.49], ["2020-09-21", 0.49], ["2020-09-21", 0.49], ["2020-09-26", 0.49], ["2020-09-27", 0.49], ["2020-10-02", 0.49], ["2020-10-03", 0.49], ["2020-10-08", 0.492], ["2020-10-10", 0.492], ["2020-10-11", 0.494], ["2020-10-13", 0.497], ["2020-10-16", 0.498], ["2020-10-17", 0.498], ["2020-10-22", 0.498], ["2020-10-23", 0.5], ["2020-10-31", 0.5], ["2020-11-02", 0.503], ["2020-11-04", 0.504], ["2020-11-04", 0.505], ["2020-11-11", 0.505], ["2020-11-12", 0.47]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3790/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Dominic Cummings's appointment as Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has been the subject of significant media scrutiny, and many of the controversies surrounding Johnson's premiership so far have been strongly linked to Cummings in the media. Two recent examples are:
The appointment and subsequent resignation of Andrew Sabisky
The resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid
Resolution:
If Cummings is still Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson when voting closes for the next UK general election, question resolves positive.
If Boris Johnson steps down or is otherwise removed from the office of Prime Minister before the next UK general election, and Cummings is still acting as Chief Adviser at the point when this happens, question resolves positive.
Otherwise, if Cummings leaves his position as Chief Adviser while Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and before the next UK general election, question resolves negative. | true | 2020-11-13 | Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-05 | 2020-03-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-09", 0.84], ["2020-03-10", 0.892], ["2020-03-11", 0.878], ["2020-03-11", 0.88], ["2020-03-13", 0.877], ["2020-03-14", 0.873], ["2020-03-14", 0.87], ["2020-03-16", 0.868], ["2020-03-17", 0.868], ["2020-03-18", 0.865], ["2020-03-19", 0.866], ["2020-03-20", 0.857], ["2020-03-21", 0.857], ["2020-03-22", 0.856], ["2020-03-23", 0.854], ["2020-03-25", 0.857], ["2020-03-26", 0.859], ["2020-03-27", 0.861], ["2020-03-28", 0.861], ["2020-03-28", 0.862], ["2020-03-29", 0.862], ["2020-03-31", 0.861], ["2020-04-01", 0.862], ["2020-04-03", 0.863], ["2020-04-04", 0.862], ["2020-04-05", 0.863], ["2020-04-06", 0.863], ["2020-04-07", 0.863], ["2020-04-08", 0.861], ["2020-04-10", 0.861], ["2020-04-12", 0.861], ["2020-04-13", 0.861], ["2020-04-14", 0.861], ["2020-04-15", 0.861], ["2020-04-16", 0.862], ["2020-04-17", 0.86], ["2020-04-19", 0.859], ["2020-04-20", 0.86], ["2020-04-21", 0.86], ["2020-04-22", 0.86], ["2020-04-24", 0.859], ["2020-04-25", 0.855], ["2020-04-25", 0.855], ["2020-04-27", 0.855], ["2020-04-28", 0.851], ["2020-04-29", 0.852], ["2020-04-30", 0.853], ["2020-05-06", 0.853], ["2020-05-07", 0.853], ["2020-05-10", 0.854], ["2020-05-11", 0.857], ["2020-05-12", 0.857], ["2020-05-13", 0.857], ["2020-05-17", 0.857], ["2020-05-18", 0.858], ["2020-05-19", 0.858], ["2020-05-22", 0.858], ["2020-05-24", 0.859], ["2020-05-26", 0.859], ["2020-05-29", 0.859], ["2020-05-29", 0.859], ["2020-06-01", 0.859], ["2020-06-02", 0.859], ["2020-06-04", 0.86], ["2020-06-05", 0.86], ["2020-06-06", 0.861], ["2020-06-11", 0.861], ["2020-06-12", 0.862], ["2020-06-13", 0.861], ["2020-06-14", 0.862], ["2020-06-16", 0.861], ["2020-06-17", 0.862], ["2020-06-18", 0.862], ["2020-06-19", 0.861], ["2020-06-22", 0.861], ["2020-06-23", 0.86], ["2020-06-24", 0.86], ["2020-06-27", 0.861], ["2020-06-27", 0.862], ["2020-06-28", 0.862], ["2020-06-29", 0.863], ["2020-07-01", 0.862], ["2020-07-02", 0.863], ["2020-07-03", 0.862], ["2020-07-04", 0.862], ["2020-07-05", 0.862], ["2020-07-07", 0.862], ["2020-07-10", 0.862], ["2020-07-13", 0.862], ["2020-07-14", 0.862], ["2020-07-15", 0.863], ["2020-07-16", 0.863], ["2020-07-18", 0.864], ["2020-07-19", 0.865], ["2020-07-20", 0.865], ["2020-07-23", 0.865], ["2020-07-24", 0.865], ["2020-07-26", 0.865], ["2020-07-30", 0.865], ["2020-07-31", 0.872], ["2020-08-01", 0.873]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3791/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Every 4 years, the United States elects a new president. These elections are traditionally held on the first Tuesday after November 1st. Typically, somewhere roughly between 50% and 60% of the voting population turns out to cast a ballot.
An election is scheduled to be held on the 3rd of November. However, the COVID-19 outbreak has reached the United States. This could potentially cause havoc, making many people sick or fearful to come to public polling places, and potentially incapacitating the personnel necessary to run elections. As such, we ask:
Will at least 33% of the US voting-age population cast a ballot for President in an election held on the 3rd of November 2020?
Notes:
Technically the election is for members of the Electoral College, not the President.
The "3rd of November 2020" refers to the period of time when it is the 3rd of November 2020 in any state of the United States.
This total includes people who voted by mail or people who voted early in person, as long as the majority of in-person voting is held on the 3rd of November. | true | 2020-08-01 | Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-18 | 2020-03-10 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-11", 0.4], ["2020-03-12", 0.475], ["2020-03-12", 0.63], ["2020-03-12", 0.658], ["2020-03-12", 0.658], ["2020-03-12", 0.682], ["2020-03-12", 0.706], ["2020-03-12", 0.706], ["2020-03-12", 0.718], ["2020-03-12", 0.742], ["2020-03-12", 0.753], ["2020-03-12", 0.738], ["2020-03-13", 0.739], ["2020-03-13", 0.735], ["2020-03-13", 0.735], ["2020-03-13", 0.732], ["2020-03-13", 0.741], ["2020-03-13", 0.741], ["2020-03-13", 0.744], ["2020-03-13", 0.751], ["2020-03-13", 0.76], ["2020-03-14", 0.76], ["2020-03-14", 0.765], ["2020-03-14", 0.767], ["2020-03-14", 0.773], ["2020-03-14", 0.779], ["2020-03-14", 0.779], ["2020-03-15", 0.8], ["2020-03-15", 0.8], ["2020-03-15", 0.809], ["2020-03-15", 0.809], ["2020-03-15", 0.813], ["2020-03-15", 0.816], ["2020-03-15", 0.817], ["2020-03-15", 0.817], ["2020-03-15", 0.82], ["2020-03-15", 0.827], ["2020-03-15", 0.831], ["2020-03-15", 0.834], ["2020-03-15", 0.838], ["2020-03-15", 0.838], ["2020-03-16", 0.837], ["2020-03-16", 0.841], ["2020-03-16", 0.841], ["2020-03-16", 0.849], ["2020-03-16", 0.849], ["2020-03-16", 0.853], ["2020-03-16", 0.855], ["2020-03-16", 0.856], ["2020-03-16", 0.856], ["2020-03-16", 0.863], ["2020-03-16", 0.863], ["2020-03-16", 0.865], ["2020-03-16", 0.865], ["2020-03-16", 0.865], ["2020-03-16", 0.868], ["2020-03-16", 0.868], ["2020-03-16", 0.874], ["2020-03-16", 0.883], ["2020-03-16", 0.883], ["2020-03-16", 0.884], ["2020-03-16", 0.884], ["2020-03-16", 0.881], ["2020-03-16", 0.881], ["2020-03-16", 0.883], ["2020-03-17", 0.883], ["2020-03-17", 0.88], ["2020-03-17", 0.88], ["2020-03-17", 0.879], ["2020-03-17", 0.88], ["2020-03-17", 0.879], ["2020-03-17", 0.879], ["2020-03-17", 0.879]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3825/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The University of Cambridge is a collegiate public research university in Cambridge, United Kingdom.
In the U.S., some universities have asked its students not to returns to return to campus after Spring Break and said it would begin moving to virtual instruction for graduate and undergraduate classes amid the coronavirus outbreak.
Will the University of Cambridge suspend its in-person classes for at least some of its full-time courses for the 2020 Easter term?
This question resolves positively if the University of Cambridge suspends its in-person classes for at least some of its full-time courses (undergraduate or postgraduate) for the majority of its Easter term (at least 50% of instruction-time). Easter term runs from the 27th April till the 18th of June. Resolution is by credible news report, or by inquiries submitted to the University. | true | 2020-04-26 | Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-04-17 | 2020-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-16", 0.9], ["2020-03-16", 0.745], ["2020-03-16", 0.747], ["2020-03-16", 0.591], ["2020-03-16", 0.497], ["2020-03-17", 0.472], ["2020-03-17", 0.472], ["2020-03-17", 0.46], ["2020-03-18", 0.463], ["2020-03-18", 0.456], ["2020-03-18", 0.452], ["2020-03-18", 0.472], ["2020-03-19", 0.484], ["2020-03-19", 0.485], ["2020-03-20", 0.496], ["2020-03-20", 0.51], ["2020-03-20", 0.51], ["2020-03-20", 0.51], ["2020-03-21", 0.519], ["2020-03-21", 0.511], ["2020-03-21", 0.53], ["2020-03-21", 0.549], ["2020-03-22", 0.545], ["2020-03-22", 0.568], ["2020-03-22", 0.576], ["2020-03-22", 0.629], ["2020-03-22", 0.635], ["2020-03-23", 0.648], ["2020-03-23", 0.649], ["2020-03-23", 0.656], ["2020-03-23", 0.657], ["2020-03-24", 0.66], ["2020-03-24", 0.668], ["2020-03-24", 0.673], ["2020-03-24", 0.668], ["2020-03-25", 0.673], ["2020-03-25", 0.671], ["2020-03-25", 0.672], ["2020-03-25", 0.671], ["2020-03-26", 0.678], ["2020-03-26", 0.677], ["2020-03-26", 0.678], ["2020-03-26", 0.682], ["2020-03-27", 0.682], ["2020-03-27", 0.677], ["2020-03-27", 0.678], ["2020-03-27", 0.696], ["2020-03-28", 0.697], ["2020-03-28", 0.697], ["2020-03-28", 0.703], ["2020-03-28", 0.724], ["2020-03-29", 0.725], ["2020-03-29", 0.742], ["2020-03-29", 0.747], ["2020-03-29", 0.769], ["2020-03-29", 0.774], ["2020-03-30", 0.781], ["2020-03-30", 0.788], ["2020-03-30", 0.794], ["2020-03-30", 0.803], ["2020-03-31", 0.805], ["2020-03-31", 0.804], ["2020-03-31", 0.816], ["2020-03-31", 0.817], ["2020-04-01", 0.817], ["2020-04-01", 0.818], ["2020-04-01", 0.822], ["2020-04-01", 0.826], ["2020-04-02", 0.826], ["2020-04-02", 0.828], ["2020-04-02", 0.83], ["2020-04-02", 0.831], ["2020-04-02", 0.836], ["2020-04-03", 0.843], ["2020-04-03", 0.844], ["2020-04-03", 0.845], ["2020-04-03", 0.845], ["2020-04-04", 0.845], ["2020-04-04", 0.846], ["2020-04-05", 0.849], ["2020-04-05", 0.85], ["2020-04-05", 0.848], ["2020-04-07", 0.85], ["2020-04-07", 0.851], ["2020-04-07", 0.852], ["2020-04-10", 0.852], ["2020-04-11", 0.852], ["2020-04-11", 0.852], ["2020-04-11", 0.853], ["2020-04-11", 0.855], ["2020-04-12", 0.857], ["2020-04-12", 0.857], ["2020-04-13", 0.857], ["2020-04-13", 0.858], ["2020-04-13", 0.861], ["2020-04-14", 0.862], ["2020-04-14", 0.862], ["2020-04-14", 0.862], ["2020-04-14", 0.863], ["2020-04-16", 0.867], ["2020-04-16", 0.869]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3855/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.
As of 13 March 2020, over 137,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in China.
This question asks: Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?
This question resolves as the number reported by:
The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable,
the WHO situation reports, or another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators | true | 2020-12-01 | Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-01", 0.33], ["2020-04-03", 0.298], ["2020-04-05", 0.325], ["2020-04-06", 0.324], ["2020-04-08", 0.319], ["2020-04-10", 0.319], ["2020-04-12", 0.317], ["2020-04-14", 0.306], ["2020-04-16", 0.302], ["2020-04-19", 0.288], ["2020-04-22", 0.28], ["2020-04-23", 0.279], ["2020-04-25", 0.275], ["2020-04-27", 0.269], ["2020-04-29", 0.267], ["2020-05-01", 0.267], ["2020-05-04", 0.266], ["2020-05-07", 0.266], ["2020-05-08", 0.265], ["2020-05-11", 0.258], ["2020-05-12", 0.258], ["2020-05-15", 0.252], ["2020-05-17", 0.25], ["2020-05-19", 0.25], ["2020-05-21", 0.243], ["2020-05-24", 0.241], ["2020-05-27", 0.241], ["2020-05-30", 0.235], ["2020-06-02", 0.239], ["2020-06-05", 0.23], ["2020-06-07", 0.233], ["2020-06-09", 0.232], ["2020-06-11", 0.227], ["2020-06-13", 0.227], ["2020-06-15", 0.226], ["2020-06-18", 0.224], ["2020-06-19", 0.226], ["2020-06-22", 0.223], ["2020-06-26", 0.222], ["2020-06-28", 0.224], ["2020-07-02", 0.224], ["2020-07-04", 0.217], ["2020-07-07", 0.217], ["2020-07-10", 0.216], ["2020-07-12", 0.214], ["2020-07-16", 0.211], ["2020-07-19", 0.211], ["2020-07-20", 0.207], ["2020-07-23", 0.205], ["2020-07-27", 0.205], ["2020-07-30", 0.204], ["2020-08-01", 0.204], ["2020-08-03", 0.203], ["2020-08-06", 0.203], ["2020-08-11", 0.202], ["2020-08-14", 0.202], ["2020-08-16", 0.201], ["2020-08-18", 0.195], ["2020-08-21", 0.19], ["2020-08-24", 0.188], ["2020-08-25", 0.188], ["2020-08-27", 0.187], ["2020-08-29", 0.172], ["2020-08-31", 0.167], ["2020-09-02", 0.165], ["2020-09-06", 0.164], ["2020-09-08", 0.162], ["2020-09-10", 0.161], ["2020-09-12", 0.16], ["2020-09-15", 0.16], ["2020-09-16", 0.159], ["2020-09-23", 0.156], ["2020-09-25", 0.156], ["2020-09-27", 0.156], ["2020-09-30", 0.154], ["2020-10-01", 0.153], ["2020-10-04", 0.149], ["2020-10-09", 0.148], ["2020-10-11", 0.147], ["2020-10-13", 0.146], ["2020-10-15", 0.144], ["2020-10-17", 0.143], ["2020-10-19", 0.142], ["2020-10-22", 0.142], ["2020-10-23", 0.139], ["2020-10-26", 0.139], ["2020-10-29", 0.14], ["2020-10-31", 0.138], ["2020-11-02", 0.136], ["2020-11-05", 0.134], ["2020-11-08", 0.129], ["2020-11-10", 0.127], ["2020-11-12", 0.125], ["2020-11-15", 0.12], ["2020-11-16", 0.119], ["2020-11-19", 0.118], ["2020-11-21", 0.118], ["2020-11-23", 0.118], ["2020-11-26", 0.115], ["2020-11-28", 0.112], ["2020-11-30", 0.091]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3856/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.
As of 13 March 2020, over 137,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in China.
This question asks: Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported on the Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable, another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators? | true | 2020-12-01 | Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-02 | 2020-03-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-14", 0.34], ["2020-03-14", 0.586], ["2020-03-14", 0.613], ["2020-03-14", 0.63], ["2020-03-14", 0.612], ["2020-03-15", 0.582], ["2020-03-15", 0.581], ["2020-03-15", 0.568], ["2020-03-15", 0.548], ["2020-03-15", 0.542], ["2020-03-15", 0.539], ["2020-03-15", 0.547], ["2020-03-15", 0.526], ["2020-03-15", 0.525], ["2020-03-15", 0.515], ["2020-03-15", 0.509], ["2020-03-15", 0.491], ["2020-03-15", 0.492], ["2020-03-15", 0.485], ["2020-03-15", 0.477], ["2020-03-15", 0.471], ["2020-03-15", 0.453], ["2020-03-16", 0.454], ["2020-03-16", 0.449], ["2020-03-16", 0.438], ["2020-03-16", 0.441], ["2020-03-16", 0.443], ["2020-03-16", 0.444], ["2020-03-16", 0.443], ["2020-03-16", 0.442], ["2020-03-16", 0.442], ["2020-03-16", 0.442], ["2020-03-16", 0.445], ["2020-03-16", 0.443], ["2020-03-16", 0.44], ["2020-03-16", 0.436], ["2020-03-17", 0.432], ["2020-03-17", 0.429], ["2020-03-17", 0.429], ["2020-03-17", 0.428], ["2020-03-17", 0.428], ["2020-03-18", 0.427], ["2020-03-18", 0.428], ["2020-03-18", 0.428], ["2020-03-18", 0.427], ["2020-03-18", 0.427], ["2020-03-19", 0.427], ["2020-03-19", 0.426], ["2020-03-19", 0.426], ["2020-03-19", 0.426], ["2020-03-19", 0.427], ["2020-03-19", 0.425], ["2020-03-19", 0.425], ["2020-03-20", 0.425], ["2020-03-20", 0.425], ["2020-03-20", 0.426], ["2020-03-21", 0.426], ["2020-03-21", 0.428], ["2020-03-21", 0.429], ["2020-03-21", 0.429], ["2020-03-21", 0.429], ["2020-03-21", 0.429], ["2020-03-21", 0.428], ["2020-03-21", 0.429], ["2020-03-21", 0.429], ["2020-03-21", 0.429], ["2020-03-22", 0.429], ["2020-03-22", 0.434], ["2020-03-22", 0.434], ["2020-03-22", 0.433], ["2020-03-22", 0.433], ["2020-03-22", 0.435], ["2020-03-22", 0.435], ["2020-03-22", 0.435], ["2020-03-23", 0.435], ["2020-03-23", 0.433], ["2020-03-23", 0.433], ["2020-03-23", 0.432], ["2020-03-23", 0.432], ["2020-03-23", 0.432], ["2020-03-23", 0.433], ["2020-03-23", 0.433], ["2020-03-23", 0.434], ["2020-03-24", 0.436], ["2020-03-24", 0.434], ["2020-03-24", 0.434], ["2020-03-24", 0.435], ["2020-03-24", 0.436], ["2020-03-24", 0.435], ["2020-03-24", 0.435], ["2020-03-24", 0.435], ["2020-03-24", 0.435], ["2020-03-24", 0.435], ["2020-03-24", 0.433], ["2020-03-24", 0.429], ["2020-03-25", 0.428], ["2020-03-25", 0.428], ["2020-03-25", 0.43], ["2020-03-25", 0.431], ["2020-03-25", 0.43], ["2020-03-25", 0.429]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3859/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | According to CNN:
A source close to Donald Trump said the President is telling people close to him that he is indeed concerned about coming into contact with people who have contracted the coronavirus, including the Brazilian official who tested positive after coming face-to-face with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?
This question resolves positively if it is reported that Donald Trump tested positively for COVID-19 in 2020. Resolution is by any of the following:
Statements by Donald Trump himself (through a televised address, made by the @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS twitter accounts, or by a signed letter)
Statements made by Mike Pence
Statements made by the White House
An announcement that Trump was found to have the relevant antibodies that would only be present if he had COVID-19 is sufficient for positive resolution.
In case of positive resolution, this question resolves 48 hours before the first reports. | true | 2020-03-25 | Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-12-31 | 2020-03-14 | ["https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gesetz_zum_Schutz_der_Bev\u00f6lkerung_bei_einer_epidemischen_Lage_von_nationaler_Tragweite)", "https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notstandsgesetze_(Deutschland)", "https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infektionsschutzgesetz", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11944/countries-invoking-nato-article-5/#comment-107800", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_government_response_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic", "https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/nationwide-emergency-brake-1889136"] | binary | [["2020-03-24", 0.66], ["2020-03-24", 0.419], ["2020-03-25", 0.422], ["2020-03-25", 0.456], ["2020-03-25", 0.456], ["2020-03-26", 0.446], ["2020-03-26", 0.446], ["2020-03-27", 0.446], ["2020-03-28", 0.447], ["2020-03-28", 0.456], ["2020-03-28", 0.451], ["2020-03-29", 0.451], ["2020-03-30", 0.454], ["2020-03-30", 0.452], ["2020-03-31", 0.445], ["2020-04-01", 0.443], ["2020-04-01", 0.428], ["2020-04-01", 0.407], ["2020-04-02", 0.395], ["2020-04-02", 0.392], ["2020-04-03", 0.392], ["2020-04-03", 0.392], ["2020-04-03", 0.389], ["2020-04-04", 0.389], ["2020-04-04", 0.384], ["2020-04-04", 0.384], ["2020-04-05", 0.384], ["2020-04-06", 0.384], ["2020-04-06", 0.377], ["2020-04-07", 0.373], ["2020-04-07", 0.37], ["2020-04-08", 0.369], ["2020-04-08", 0.367], ["2020-04-10", 0.367], ["2020-04-10", 0.359], ["2020-04-11", 0.356], ["2020-04-11", 0.349], ["2020-04-12", 0.346], ["2020-04-12", 0.345], ["2020-04-13", 0.345], ["2020-04-14", 0.343], ["2020-04-17", 0.343], ["2020-04-17", 0.342], ["2020-04-20", 0.342], ["2020-04-20", 0.338], ["2020-04-21", 0.338], ["2020-04-22", 0.335], ["2020-04-22", 0.335], ["2020-04-22", 0.332], ["2020-04-23", 0.332], ["2020-04-24", 0.331], ["2020-04-25", 0.329], ["2020-04-28", 0.329], ["2020-04-29", 0.323], ["2020-04-29", 0.323], ["2020-04-30", 0.322], ["2020-05-01", 0.317], ["2020-05-02", 0.315], ["2020-05-03", 0.313], ["2020-05-03", 0.313], ["2020-05-03", 0.309], ["2020-05-06", 0.306], ["2020-05-12", 0.306], ["2020-05-17", 0.303], ["2020-05-17", 0.298], ["2020-05-18", 0.293], ["2020-05-18", 0.29], ["2020-05-18", 0.285], ["2020-05-19", 0.285], ["2020-05-21", 0.278], ["2020-05-24", 0.278], ["2020-05-24", 0.278], ["2020-05-26", 0.277], ["2020-05-30", 0.277], ["2020-06-01", 0.27], ["2020-06-01", 0.269], ["2020-06-02", 0.267], ["2020-06-02", 0.263], ["2020-06-03", 0.26], ["2020-06-03", 0.257], ["2020-06-04", 0.257], ["2020-06-05", 0.256], ["2020-06-05", 0.252], ["2020-06-05", 0.251], ["2020-06-06", 0.249], ["2020-06-06", 0.246], ["2020-06-07", 0.242], ["2020-06-08", 0.236], ["2020-06-08", 0.234], ["2020-06-09", 0.233], ["2020-06-10", 0.23], ["2020-06-10", 0.226], ["2020-06-11", 0.226], ["2020-06-12", 0.219], ["2020-06-12", 0.218], ["2020-06-12", 0.215], ["2020-06-13", 0.218], ["2020-06-13", 0.215], ["2020-06-14", 0.216], ["2020-06-14", 0.17], ["2020-06-15", 0.157]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3863/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the German Emergency Act, changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the "right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available."
All this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the Weimar Republic and the consequences that followed.
As such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.
Further complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.
Yet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary in light of catastrophic circumstances.
As the saying goes, sometimes needs must.
Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?
Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022.
Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen.
Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19.
This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. | true | 2020-06-15 | Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-03-15 | 2020-03-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-22", 0.24], ["2020-03-24", 0.309], ["2020-03-26", 0.302], ["2020-03-28", 0.306], ["2020-03-29", 0.316], ["2020-03-31", 0.307], ["2020-04-02", 0.304], ["2020-04-03", 0.296], ["2020-04-05", 0.299], ["2020-04-07", 0.299], ["2020-04-09", 0.295], ["2020-04-10", 0.295], ["2020-04-12", 0.295], ["2020-04-14", 0.29], ["2020-04-17", 0.289], ["2020-04-18", 0.29], ["2020-04-20", 0.289], ["2020-04-22", 0.288], ["2020-04-23", 0.294], ["2020-04-29", 0.294], ["2020-05-01", 0.301], ["2020-05-03", 0.302], ["2020-05-05", 0.3], ["2020-05-06", 0.294], ["2020-05-07", 0.285], ["2020-05-10", 0.284], ["2020-05-11", 0.246], ["2020-05-12", 0.237], ["2020-05-17", 0.236], ["2020-05-20", 0.245], ["2020-05-22", 0.239], ["2020-05-23", 0.238], ["2020-05-24", 0.232], ["2020-05-26", 0.232], ["2020-05-27", 0.232], ["2020-05-30", 0.229], ["2020-06-01", 0.229], ["2020-06-03", 0.23], ["2020-06-07", 0.23], ["2020-06-14", 0.228], ["2020-06-16", 0.228], ["2020-06-18", 0.227], ["2020-06-19", 0.226], ["2020-06-21", 0.226], ["2020-06-25", 0.226], ["2020-06-26", 0.228], ["2020-06-27", 0.236], ["2020-06-28", 0.232], ["2020-06-30", 0.23], ["2020-07-01", 0.23], ["2020-07-03", 0.239], ["2020-07-04", 0.245], ["2020-07-05", 0.244], ["2020-07-06", 0.244], ["2020-07-08", 0.243], ["2020-07-09", 0.245], ["2020-07-11", 0.248], ["2020-07-12", 0.254], ["2020-07-14", 0.259], ["2020-07-16", 0.261], ["2020-07-25", 0.261], ["2020-07-25", 0.257], ["2020-07-29", 0.257], ["2020-07-30", 0.256], ["2020-08-01", 0.256], ["2020-08-19", 0.256], ["2020-08-21", 0.255], ["2020-08-23", 0.255], ["2020-08-24", 0.254], ["2020-08-26", 0.253], ["2020-09-07", 0.254], ["2020-09-08", 0.252], ["2020-09-12", 0.252], ["2020-09-18", 0.252], ["2020-09-28", 0.252], ["2020-09-30", 0.251], ["2020-10-01", 0.251], ["2020-10-03", 0.251], ["2020-10-03", 0.25], ["2020-10-05", 0.25], ["2020-10-07", 0.25], ["2020-10-09", 0.246], ["2020-10-11", 0.246], ["2020-10-12", 0.245], ["2020-10-16", 0.245], ["2020-10-18", 0.245], ["2020-10-20", 0.242], ["2020-10-21", 0.244], ["2020-10-22", 0.243], ["2020-10-24", 0.243], ["2020-10-25", 0.243], ["2020-10-30", 0.243], ["2020-10-30", 0.242], ["2020-11-02", 0.243], ["2020-11-04", 0.24], ["2020-11-05", 0.238], ["2020-11-07", 0.236], ["2020-11-09", 0.236], ["2020-11-11", 0.235], ["2020-11-13", 0.235], ["2020-11-15", 0.227]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3875/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
For purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 election, which is 60% or 7.2 out of 12. They are:
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana,Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama (We won’t count the second congressional districft of Maine which may not have readily accessible health statistics). (source)
This question resolves according to the best numbers published by the CDC as of 2021-03-15, as judged by Metaculus. | true | 2020-11-15 | Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-10 | 2020-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-26", 0.33], ["2020-03-26", 0.29], ["2020-03-26", 0.29], ["2020-03-27", 0.188], ["2020-03-27", 0.188], ["2020-03-27", 0.268], ["2020-03-28", 0.311], ["2020-03-28", 0.311], ["2020-03-28", 0.279], ["2020-03-28", 0.279], ["2020-03-28", 0.271], ["2020-03-28", 0.266], ["2020-03-29", 0.269], ["2020-03-29", 0.269], ["2020-03-29", 0.273], ["2020-03-29", 0.278], ["2020-03-29", 0.288], ["2020-03-29", 0.294], ["2020-03-30", 0.302], ["2020-03-30", 0.302], ["2020-03-31", 0.313], ["2020-03-31", 0.312], ["2020-04-01", 0.312], ["2020-04-01", 0.313], ["2020-04-01", 0.312], ["2020-04-02", 0.311], ["2020-04-02", 0.311], ["2020-04-02", 0.311], ["2020-04-02", 0.309], ["2020-04-03", 0.309], ["2020-04-03", 0.302], ["2020-04-03", 0.3], ["2020-04-03", 0.3], ["2020-04-03", 0.297], ["2020-04-03", 0.297], ["2020-04-04", 0.298], ["2020-04-05", 0.297], ["2020-04-05", 0.299], ["2020-04-05", 0.3], ["2020-04-10", 0.304], ["2020-04-22", 0.304], ["2020-04-24", 0.303], ["2020-04-28", 0.285], ["2020-04-30", 0.285], ["2020-05-01", 0.279], ["2020-05-01", 0.278], ["2020-05-12", 0.278], ["2020-05-16", 0.278], ["2020-05-17", 0.272], ["2020-05-29", 0.272], ["2020-05-29", 0.285], ["2020-05-30", 0.29], ["2020-05-30", 0.295], ["2020-05-30", 0.295], ["2020-05-30", 0.294], ["2020-05-30", 0.294], ["2020-05-31", 0.297], ["2020-05-31", 0.301], ["2020-05-31", 0.306], ["2020-05-31", 0.33], ["2020-05-31", 0.33], ["2020-05-31", 0.333], ["2020-06-01", 0.365], ["2020-06-01", 0.371], ["2020-06-01", 0.38], ["2020-06-01", 0.386], ["2020-06-01", 0.391], ["2020-06-01", 0.395], ["2020-06-01", 0.396], ["2020-06-01", 0.443], ["2020-06-01", 0.449], ["2020-06-01", 0.479], ["2020-06-02", 0.492], ["2020-06-02", 0.514], ["2020-06-02", 0.528], ["2020-06-02", 0.535], ["2020-06-02", 0.548], ["2020-06-02", 0.557], ["2020-06-02", 0.558], ["2020-06-02", 0.56], ["2020-06-02", 0.562], ["2020-06-02", 0.567], ["2020-06-03", 0.574], ["2020-06-03", 0.574], ["2020-06-03", 0.572], ["2020-06-03", 0.572], ["2020-06-03", 0.57], ["2020-06-04", 0.57], ["2020-06-04", 0.569], ["2020-06-04", 0.568], ["2020-06-04", 0.568], ["2020-06-04", 0.569], ["2020-06-04", 0.57], ["2020-06-06", 0.57], ["2020-06-06", 0.566], ["2020-06-06", 0.566], ["2020-06-07", 0.565], ["2020-06-07", 0.565], ["2020-06-08", 0.563], ["2020-06-08", 0.562], ["2020-06-10", 0.563]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3894/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The United States is currently in a situation where residents of several states are being requested by authorities to shelter in place. At some point, the request may become an edict. People may disregard this command, and civil unrest may ensue.
The National Guard is already involved and the words "martial law" have surfaced
Question: Before 2021, will at least one USA civilian in any of the 50 states be shot and killed by an active or reserve USA service member of the United States Armed Forces or State National guard.
The question is resolved if there is at least one verifiable report rendering the affirmative. | true | 2020-10-31 | Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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According to its producer, Gilead Sciences:
Remdesivir has demonstrated in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models against the viral pathogens MERS and SARS, which are also coronaviruses and are structurally similar to COVID-19. The limited preclinical data on remdesivir in MERS and SARS indicate that remdesivir may have potential activity against COVID-19.
From the National Institutes of Health:
A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. The trial regulatory sponsor is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. This is the first clinical trial in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
“We urgently need a safe and effective treatment for COVID-19. Although remdesivir has been administered to some patients with COVID-19, we do not have solid data to indicate it can improve clinical outcomes,” said NIAID Director and U.S. Coronavirus Task Force member Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. “A randomized, placebo-controlled trial is the gold standard for determining if an experimental treatment can benefit patients.”
Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?
This question resolves positively if before the end of 2020, medical publications or credible media sources indicate that remdesivir has be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan.
For the purpose of this question, the process under which remdesivir is made available to patients does not matter. It may be administered under clinical trials, special access programs (such as Expanded Access or Compassionate Use programs), approved for widespread use or even self-administered. | true | 2020-08-31 | Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-09-11 | 2020-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-30", 0.33], ["2020-03-31", 0.636], ["2020-04-01", 0.644], ["2020-04-01", 0.693], ["2020-04-03", 0.719], ["2020-04-04", 0.715], ["2020-04-05", 0.701], ["2020-04-06", 0.678], ["2020-04-07", 0.695], ["2020-04-08", 0.695], ["2020-04-09", 0.696], ["2020-04-11", 0.696], ["2020-04-12", 0.698], ["2020-04-14", 0.681], ["2020-04-14", 0.682], ["2020-04-17", 0.68], ["2020-04-20", 0.682], ["2020-04-21", 0.684], ["2020-04-22", 0.683], ["2020-04-23", 0.687], ["2020-04-24", 0.687], ["2020-04-25", 0.688], ["2020-04-27", 0.686], ["2020-04-29", 0.679], ["2020-04-29", 0.679], ["2020-04-30", 0.667], ["2020-05-01", 0.665], ["2020-05-03", 0.662], ["2020-05-04", 0.682], ["2020-05-04", 0.683], ["2020-05-06", 0.683], ["2020-05-07", 0.69], ["2020-05-08", 0.695], ["2020-05-09", 0.693], ["2020-05-10", 0.693], ["2020-05-11", 0.693], ["2020-05-12", 0.693], ["2020-05-14", 0.695], ["2020-05-14", 0.695], ["2020-05-16", 0.695], ["2020-05-17", 0.686], ["2020-05-19", 0.688], ["2020-05-25", 0.689], ["2020-05-26", 0.691], ["2020-05-28", 0.692], ["2020-05-28", 0.692], ["2020-05-30", 0.691], ["2020-05-31", 0.691], ["2020-06-02", 0.691], ["2020-06-03", 0.691], ["2020-06-04", 0.692], ["2020-06-05", 0.7], ["2020-06-06", 0.701], ["2020-06-07", 0.701], ["2020-06-08", 0.701], ["2020-06-09", 0.7], ["2020-06-10", 0.698], ["2020-06-11", 0.698], ["2020-06-12", 0.685], ["2020-06-13", 0.678], ["2020-06-14", 0.681], ["2020-06-16", 0.681], ["2020-06-17", 0.682], ["2020-06-18", 0.686], ["2020-06-19", 0.685], ["2020-06-20", 0.689], ["2020-06-21", 0.69], ["2020-06-22", 0.69], ["2020-06-23", 0.691], ["2020-06-24", 0.695], ["2020-06-25", 0.7], ["2020-06-27", 0.701], ["2020-06-27", 0.698], ["2020-06-29", 0.699], ["2020-06-30", 0.699], ["2020-07-01", 0.699], ["2020-07-03", 0.695], ["2020-07-04", 0.695], ["2020-07-05", 0.696], ["2020-07-06", 0.697], ["2020-07-07", 0.698], ["2020-07-08", 0.699], ["2020-07-10", 0.701], ["2020-07-12", 0.702], ["2020-07-13", 0.704], ["2020-07-14", 0.703], ["2020-07-17", 0.703], ["2020-07-19", 0.704], ["2020-07-20", 0.705], ["2020-07-22", 0.705], ["2020-07-25", 0.705], ["2020-07-26", 0.705], ["2020-07-27", 0.704], ["2020-07-28", 0.706], ["2020-07-29", 0.709], ["2020-07-31", 0.709], ["2020-08-01", 0.711], ["2020-08-03", 0.712], ["2020-08-04", 0.713], ["2020-08-05", 0.713], ["2020-08-06", 0.722]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3896/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.
A number of European nations, including Spain, France, Italy, and the UK, have announced that all schools are to be closed in an attempt to curb COVID-19 infections.
In the United Kingdom, the school year is divided into three terms. The Autumn Term, which is the first of the school year, runs from early September to late December.
This question asks whether the United Kingdom will reopen its schools in time for a "normal" start to the Autumn Term of the year 2020. The UK had over 3900 cases as of March 20, when an announcement was made that, in addition to schools, pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants would be closed. Schools are currently running in an extremely limited capacity to provide childcare for essential workers, and care for vulnerable children.
Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?
Question resolves positively if >50% of UK schools (including primary, secondary, and sixth-form colleges) are open for physical, in-person teaching for the majority of pupils, on the 7th of September 2020 (the first Monday).
Resolution is by credible news reports or by reports by UK government agencies. % of schools is taken here by number of schools, not by number of students. | true | 2020-08-06 | Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-28 | 2020-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-25", 0.35], ["2020-03-25", 0.382], ["2020-03-26", 0.251], ["2020-03-26", 0.221], ["2020-03-27", 0.223], ["2020-03-28", 0.224], ["2020-03-28", 0.236], ["2020-03-29", 0.242], ["2020-03-30", 0.252], ["2020-03-31", 0.252], ["2020-04-01", 0.246], ["2020-04-02", 0.249], ["2020-04-03", 0.236], ["2020-04-04", 0.229], ["2020-04-04", 0.229], ["2020-04-05", 0.224], ["2020-04-05", 0.216], ["2020-04-06", 0.213], ["2020-04-08", 0.213], ["2020-04-09", 0.206], ["2020-04-12", 0.211], ["2020-04-13", 0.207], ["2020-04-15", 0.202], ["2020-04-15", 0.212], ["2020-04-17", 0.212], ["2020-04-18", 0.222], ["2020-04-19", 0.221], ["2020-04-19", 0.217], ["2020-04-20", 0.214], ["2020-04-21", 0.21], ["2020-04-22", 0.206], ["2020-04-22", 0.206], ["2020-04-23", 0.202], ["2020-04-23", 0.202], ["2020-04-24", 0.196], ["2020-04-25", 0.196], ["2020-04-25", 0.192], ["2020-04-28", 0.19], ["2020-04-28", 0.192], ["2020-04-29", 0.188], ["2020-04-30", 0.185], ["2020-05-01", 0.185], ["2020-05-04", 0.185], ["2020-05-06", 0.191], ["2020-05-06", 0.19], ["2020-05-07", 0.186], ["2020-05-08", 0.189], ["2020-05-08", 0.188], ["2020-05-10", 0.188], ["2020-05-10", 0.188], ["2020-05-11", 0.188], ["2020-05-12", 0.186], ["2020-05-13", 0.18], ["2020-05-14", 0.18], ["2020-05-14", 0.18], ["2020-05-15", 0.177], ["2020-05-15", 0.172], ["2020-05-16", 0.172], ["2020-05-17", 0.17], ["2020-05-17", 0.166], ["2020-05-18", 0.165], ["2020-05-19", 0.162], ["2020-05-19", 0.161], ["2020-05-20", 0.162], ["2020-05-21", 0.158], ["2020-05-22", 0.16], ["2020-05-23", 0.159], ["2020-05-24", 0.158], ["2020-05-24", 0.161], ["2020-05-27", 0.16], ["2020-05-28", 0.16], ["2020-05-28", 0.158], ["2020-05-29", 0.158], ["2020-05-30", 0.162], ["2020-05-30", 0.16], ["2020-05-31", 0.163], ["2020-06-01", 0.163], ["2020-06-02", 0.161], ["2020-06-02", 0.163], ["2020-06-03", 0.162], ["2020-06-04", 0.162], ["2020-06-04", 0.163], ["2020-06-05", 0.163], ["2020-06-06", 0.162], ["2020-06-07", 0.161], ["2020-06-07", 0.16], ["2020-06-08", 0.159], ["2020-06-09", 0.159], ["2020-06-09", 0.161], ["2020-06-10", 0.16], ["2020-06-11", 0.161], ["2020-06-12", 0.161], ["2020-06-13", 0.169], ["2020-06-13", 0.168], ["2020-06-14", 0.166], ["2020-06-16", 0.165], ["2020-06-16", 0.162], ["2020-06-18", 0.161], ["2020-06-19", 0.16], ["2020-06-20", 0.143], ["2020-06-20", 0.137]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3897/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before 21 June 2020?
Positive resolution will be by either:
The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.
A UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened.
Overwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence).
Resolution details:
Physical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.
The question resolves negatively if evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening are not found before the end of the 27th of June, 2020.
Positive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events.
This question was already asked thrice: for August, September, and the remainder of 2019, and resolved negatively all three times. | true | 2020-06-20 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-03-22 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-31", 0.2], ["2020-04-02", 0.158], ["2020-04-03", 0.191], ["2020-04-04", 0.194], ["2020-04-05", 0.186], ["2020-04-07", 0.186], ["2020-04-08", 0.185], ["2020-04-10", 0.183], ["2020-04-12", 0.186], ["2020-04-14", 0.179], ["2020-04-15", 0.177], ["2020-04-16", 0.182], ["2020-04-17", 0.179], ["2020-04-19", 0.183], ["2020-04-20", 0.182], ["2020-04-22", 0.182], ["2020-04-23", 0.182], ["2020-04-24", 0.185], ["2020-04-25", 0.184], ["2020-04-27", 0.181], ["2020-04-29", 0.179], ["2020-05-01", 0.179], ["2020-05-02", 0.178], ["2020-05-04", 0.179], ["2020-05-05", 0.18], ["2020-05-06", 0.179], ["2020-05-07", 0.18], ["2020-05-09", 0.18], ["2020-05-10", 0.181], ["2020-05-12", 0.18], ["2020-05-14", 0.186], ["2020-05-15", 0.188], ["2020-05-16", 0.188], ["2020-05-18", 0.186], ["2020-05-18", 0.183], ["2020-05-21", 0.181], ["2020-05-22", 0.181], ["2020-05-24", 0.181], ["2020-05-25", 0.181], ["2020-05-27", 0.179], ["2020-05-28", 0.195], ["2020-05-30", 0.278], ["2020-05-31", 0.353], ["2020-06-02", 0.393], ["2020-06-03", 0.424], ["2020-06-05", 0.419], ["2020-06-07", 0.398], ["2020-06-09", 0.384], ["2020-06-10", 0.38], ["2020-06-11", 0.38], ["2020-06-13", 0.383], ["2020-06-15", 0.381], ["2020-06-17", 0.38], ["2020-06-18", 0.38], ["2020-06-20", 0.38], ["2020-06-21", 0.379], ["2020-06-23", 0.379], ["2020-06-24", 0.379], ["2020-06-26", 0.375], ["2020-06-27", 0.374], ["2020-06-29", 0.371], ["2020-06-30", 0.369], ["2020-07-02", 0.368], ["2020-07-03", 0.368], ["2020-07-05", 0.368], ["2020-07-07", 0.368], ["2020-07-08", 0.367], ["2020-07-10", 0.366], ["2020-07-12", 0.368], ["2020-07-13", 0.366], ["2020-07-14", 0.365], ["2020-07-16", 0.364], ["2020-07-17", 0.363], ["2020-07-19", 0.359], ["2020-07-20", 0.357], ["2020-07-22", 0.356], ["2020-07-23", 0.356], ["2020-07-25", 0.355], ["2020-07-26", 0.352], ["2020-07-28", 0.35], ["2020-07-29", 0.349], ["2020-07-31", 0.348], ["2020-08-01", 0.348], ["2020-08-03", 0.347], ["2020-08-05", 0.346], ["2020-08-05", 0.346], ["2020-08-07", 0.345], ["2020-08-09", 0.342], ["2020-08-10", 0.341], ["2020-08-12", 0.342], ["2020-08-13", 0.341], ["2020-08-15", 0.341], ["2020-08-17", 0.34], ["2020-08-18", 0.34], ["2020-08-20", 0.337], ["2020-08-22", 0.334], ["2020-08-24", 0.331], ["2020-08-26", 0.33], ["2020-08-28", 0.328], ["2020-08-30", 0.319], ["2020-08-30", 0.317]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3900/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.
As of March 2020, the US is affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Several large population centers have been effectively shut down as a result of government orders that attempt to slow the spread of the pandemic.
As a result of the pandemic and associated economic shutdowns, incidents of panic buying have been reported, and dire predictions of severe economic contraction have been made.
Given the potential socio-economic impact of the pandemic, it may become increasingly difficult for many people to maintain their employment or other income source, and as of March 22 2020 it is unclear if the US government will offer all citizens a sufficient measure of economic support during the crisis to maintain the social order.
This question asks: Will the United States experience an incident of a massive riot in 2020?
For the purposes of this question, 'massive riot' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:
At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.
Such events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the LA riots would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.
Resolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.
ETA 2020-06-03: For homicides to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 50. | true | 2020-08-30 | Will the US see a massive riot in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-21 | 2020-03-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-29", 0.43], ["2020-04-01", 0.624], ["2020-04-02", 0.623], ["2020-04-05", 0.641], ["2020-04-10", 0.641], ["2020-04-12", 0.659], ["2020-04-14", 0.663], ["2020-04-16", 0.666], ["2020-04-18", 0.667], ["2020-04-20", 0.673], ["2020-04-25", 0.673], ["2020-04-27", 0.674], ["2020-04-29", 0.674], ["2020-05-02", 0.678], ["2020-05-03", 0.674], ["2020-05-06", 0.674], ["2020-05-08", 0.68], ["2020-05-11", 0.694], ["2020-05-13", 0.692], ["2020-05-16", 0.692], ["2020-05-19", 0.685], ["2020-05-20", 0.685], ["2020-05-23", 0.714], ["2020-05-24", 0.723], ["2020-05-26", 0.729], ["2020-05-29", 0.732], ["2020-05-30", 0.731], ["2020-06-01", 0.731], ["2020-06-04", 0.732], ["2020-06-05", 0.734], ["2020-06-09", 0.736], ["2020-06-11", 0.736], ["2020-06-14", 0.734], ["2020-06-18", 0.733], ["2020-06-19", 0.733], ["2020-06-25", 0.733], ["2020-06-26", 0.733], ["2020-06-28", 0.733], ["2020-06-30", 0.731], ["2020-07-03", 0.73], ["2020-07-08", 0.73], ["2020-07-10", 0.73], ["2020-07-14", 0.73], ["2020-07-17", 0.731], ["2020-07-19", 0.731], ["2020-07-20", 0.732], ["2020-07-22", 0.732], ["2020-07-25", 0.734], ["2020-08-13", 0.734], ["2020-08-14", 0.735], ["2020-08-16", 0.735], ["2020-08-18", 0.738], ["2020-08-20", 0.739], ["2020-08-22", 0.744], ["2020-09-01", 0.744], ["2020-09-02", 0.747], ["2020-09-05", 0.749], ["2020-09-07", 0.748], ["2020-09-08", 0.745], ["2020-09-11", 0.746], ["2020-09-12", 0.746], ["2020-09-14", 0.747], ["2020-09-21", 0.747], ["2020-09-22", 0.747], ["2020-09-26", 0.749], ["2020-09-27", 0.75], ["2020-10-01", 0.749], ["2020-10-03", 0.751], ["2020-10-04", 0.751], ["2020-10-06", 0.751], ["2020-10-09", 0.752], ["2020-10-15", 0.752], ["2020-10-15", 0.752], ["2020-10-21", 0.752], ["2020-10-22", 0.75], ["2020-10-24", 0.749], ["2020-10-25", 0.75], ["2020-10-31", 0.749], ["2020-11-04", 0.749], ["2020-11-09", 0.75], ["2020-11-09", 0.75], ["2020-11-12", 0.75], ["2020-11-14", 0.749], ["2020-11-16", 0.749], ["2020-11-18", 0.75], ["2020-11-21", 0.751], ["2020-11-26", 0.751], ["2020-11-29", 0.751], ["2020-12-02", 0.75], ["2020-12-04", 0.753], ["2020-12-06", 0.754], ["2020-12-09", 0.757], ["2020-12-12", 0.757], ["2020-12-15", 0.757], ["2020-12-18", 0.757], ["2020-12-21", 0.757], ["2020-12-23", 0.757], ["2020-12-26", 0.742], ["2020-12-29", 0.702], ["2021-01-01", 0.63], ["2021-01-01", 0.628]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3912/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause "suicides by the thousands." Let's see if he's right!
CDC's Wonder database gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a simple linear regression to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.
If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?
For purposes of this question:
A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States.
If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously.
The number of suicides will be the number reported by the CDC's Wonder database, or by a press release or other official publication by the National Center for Health Statistics reporting all deaths classified as any of ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-04-26 | 2020-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-29", 0.475], ["2020-03-29", 0.424], ["2020-03-29", 0.434], ["2020-03-29", 0.411], ["2020-03-30", 0.407], ["2020-03-30", 0.382], ["2020-03-30", 0.382], ["2020-03-30", 0.325], ["2020-03-31", 0.325], ["2020-03-31", 0.309], ["2020-03-31", 0.306], ["2020-03-31", 0.312], ["2020-03-31", 0.308], ["2020-03-31", 0.309], ["2020-03-31", 0.29], ["2020-04-01", 0.289], ["2020-04-01", 0.289], ["2020-04-01", 0.287], ["2020-04-01", 0.284], ["2020-04-01", 0.26], ["2020-04-02", 0.257], ["2020-04-02", 0.266], ["2020-04-02", 0.265], ["2020-04-02", 0.265], ["2020-04-02", 0.272], ["2020-04-02", 0.279], ["2020-04-03", 0.279], ["2020-04-03", 0.279], ["2020-04-03", 0.276], ["2020-04-03", 0.276], ["2020-04-03", 0.275], ["2020-04-04", 0.275], ["2020-04-04", 0.28], ["2020-04-04", 0.28], ["2020-04-04", 0.283], ["2020-04-05", 0.283], ["2020-04-05", 0.283], ["2020-04-05", 0.283], ["2020-04-05", 0.283], ["2020-04-05", 0.284], ["2020-04-06", 0.283], ["2020-04-07", 0.282], ["2020-04-07", 0.282], ["2020-04-07", 0.282], ["2020-04-07", 0.282], ["2020-04-08", 0.275], ["2020-04-08", 0.274], ["2020-04-08", 0.272], ["2020-04-08", 0.271], ["2020-04-09", 0.271], ["2020-04-09", 0.27], ["2020-04-10", 0.269], ["2020-04-10", 0.269], ["2020-04-10", 0.262], ["2020-04-11", 0.26], ["2020-04-11", 0.259], ["2020-04-11", 0.253], ["2020-04-12", 0.253], ["2020-04-12", 0.251], ["2020-04-12", 0.251], ["2020-04-12", 0.251], ["2020-04-12", 0.229], ["2020-04-12", 0.213], ["2020-04-12", 0.209], ["2020-04-13", 0.209], ["2020-04-13", 0.209], ["2020-04-13", 0.209], ["2020-04-13", 0.205], ["2020-04-13", 0.197], ["2020-04-13", 0.19], ["2020-04-14", 0.184], ["2020-04-14", 0.184], ["2020-04-14", 0.182], ["2020-04-14", 0.176], ["2020-04-14", 0.176], ["2020-04-15", 0.175], ["2020-04-15", 0.17], ["2020-04-15", 0.17], ["2020-04-16", 0.167], ["2020-04-16", 0.167], ["2020-04-16", 0.161], ["2020-04-16", 0.151], ["2020-04-16", 0.147], ["2020-04-16", 0.145], ["2020-04-17", 0.143], ["2020-04-17", 0.142], ["2020-04-17", 0.14], ["2020-04-17", 0.138], ["2020-04-17", 0.138], ["2020-04-18", 0.136], ["2020-04-18", 0.132], ["2020-04-18", 0.13], ["2020-04-18", 0.129], ["2020-04-18", 0.127], ["2020-04-19", 0.123], ["2020-04-19", 0.113], ["2020-04-19", 0.111], ["2020-04-19", 0.101], ["2020-04-19", 0.099], ["2020-04-20", 0.099], ["2020-04-20", 0.097]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3918/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On Sunday, March 22, 2020, Senators Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; James Lankford, R-Okla.; and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., introduced the Emergency Telework Act (S. 3561).
In its proposed form, the bill
grants all federal workers with telework agreements the ability to work remotely full time during the coronavirus outbreak
evaluates whether to make telework available to those who currently are not eligible to do so
requires federal agencies to continue to offer full time telework to employees so long as there is a risk of community spread of COVID-19
requires agencies to extend telework to high-risk employees and to workers in high-risk areas
requires the administration to develop a plan to maximize telework in preparation for the possibility of a future public health emergency (Source).
This questions resolves as true if all of the following are true by or on 4/25/20:
Either at least 3 reputable news sources or a government official publicly state that
The bill passes in the Senate and the House and
The president signs the bill
And / or
The bill is marked as “Became Law” here. | true | 2020-04-20 | Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-04-20 | 2020-03-25 | ["https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdow\u2026", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furlough"] | binary | [["2020-03-28", 0.25], ["2020-03-29", 0.267], ["2020-03-29", 0.289], ["2020-03-29", 0.315], ["2020-03-29", 0.35], ["2020-03-29", 0.378], ["2020-03-29", 0.382], ["2020-03-29", 0.39], ["2020-03-29", 0.385], ["2020-03-29", 0.386], ["2020-03-29", 0.404], ["2020-03-30", 0.401], ["2020-03-30", 0.401], ["2020-03-30", 0.401], ["2020-03-30", 0.392], ["2020-03-30", 0.39], ["2020-03-30", 0.397], ["2020-03-30", 0.396], ["2020-03-30", 0.396], ["2020-03-30", 0.377], ["2020-03-31", 0.369], ["2020-03-31", 0.367], ["2020-03-31", 0.365], ["2020-04-01", 0.364], ["2020-04-01", 0.361], ["2020-04-01", 0.364], ["2020-04-01", 0.363], ["2020-04-02", 0.367], ["2020-04-02", 0.364], ["2020-04-02", 0.361], ["2020-04-02", 0.359], ["2020-04-02", 0.354], ["2020-04-02", 0.351], ["2020-04-02", 0.356], ["2020-04-02", 0.355], ["2020-04-02", 0.351], ["2020-04-03", 0.349], ["2020-04-03", 0.349], ["2020-04-03", 0.35], ["2020-04-03", 0.341], ["2020-04-03", 0.341], ["2020-04-03", 0.34], ["2020-04-03", 0.337], ["2020-04-03", 0.337], ["2020-04-03", 0.332], ["2020-04-03", 0.332], ["2020-04-04", 0.331], ["2020-04-04", 0.331], ["2020-04-04", 0.33], ["2020-04-04", 0.327], ["2020-04-04", 0.324], ["2020-04-04", 0.322], ["2020-04-04", 0.318], ["2020-04-04", 0.317], ["2020-04-05", 0.315], ["2020-04-05", 0.314], ["2020-04-05", 0.312], ["2020-04-05", 0.309], ["2020-04-05", 0.308], ["2020-04-05", 0.307], ["2020-04-05", 0.307], ["2020-04-06", 0.307], ["2020-04-06", 0.304], ["2020-04-06", 0.299], ["2020-04-06", 0.295], ["2020-04-06", 0.295], ["2020-04-07", 0.295], ["2020-04-07", 0.295], ["2020-04-07", 0.295], ["2020-04-07", 0.295], ["2020-04-07", 0.288], ["2020-04-07", 0.288], ["2020-04-07", 0.288], ["2020-04-07", 0.289], ["2020-04-08", 0.287], ["2020-04-08", 0.286], ["2020-04-08", 0.282], ["2020-04-08", 0.279], ["2020-04-08", 0.279], ["2020-04-08", 0.274], ["2020-04-08", 0.274], ["2020-04-08", 0.273], ["2020-04-09", 0.273], ["2020-04-09", 0.272], ["2020-04-09", 0.27], ["2020-04-09", 0.269], ["2020-04-09", 0.267], ["2020-04-10", 0.267], ["2020-04-10", 0.265], ["2020-04-10", 0.256], ["2020-04-10", 0.248], ["2020-04-10", 0.234], ["2020-04-10", 0.232], ["2020-04-10", 0.216], ["2020-04-10", 0.199], ["2020-04-10", 0.197], ["2020-04-10", 0.196], ["2020-04-10", 0.19], ["2020-04-11", 0.187], ["2020-04-11", 0.186], ["2020-04-11", 0.184]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3921/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | A US federal government shutdown closes non-essential federal programs. It has historically occurred when the normal budget process broke down and Congress failed to appropriate funds or the president did not sign the appropriations bills.
In past shutdowns, “essential” services such as the armed forces, border protection, air traffic controllers, and police and fire departments, have continued to operate. In the 2018-2019 shutdown, about 800,000 federal employees were furloughed or required to work without pay.
Will the federal government impose a similar shutdown to mitigate the spread of COVID-19?
This question resolves as true if by or on 2020-04-19:
The president or other federal official formally announces a government shutdown
And / or at least 200,000 federal employees are furloughed for at least 1 week
Other resources
https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdow…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furlough | true | 2020-04-11 | Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-15 | 2020-03-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-28", 0.75], ["2020-03-30", 0.653], ["2020-04-01", 0.649], ["2020-04-02", 0.604], ["2020-04-04", 0.591], ["2020-04-05", 0.592], ["2020-04-06", 0.592], ["2020-04-08", 0.593], ["2020-04-09", 0.59], ["2020-04-10", 0.592], ["2020-04-11", 0.589], ["2020-04-12", 0.592], ["2020-04-14", 0.592], ["2020-04-15", 0.594], ["2020-04-17", 0.591], ["2020-04-18", 0.596], ["2020-04-20", 0.594], ["2020-04-22", 0.593], ["2020-04-23", 0.593], ["2020-04-25", 0.557], ["2020-04-26", 0.527], ["2020-04-27", 0.513], ["2020-04-29", 0.508], ["2020-04-30", 0.501], ["2020-05-01", 0.501], ["2020-05-03", 0.501], ["2020-05-04", 0.498], ["2020-05-05", 0.497], ["2020-05-06", 0.497], ["2020-05-07", 0.499], ["2020-05-08", 0.498], ["2020-05-11", 0.497], ["2020-05-12", 0.496], ["2020-05-14", 0.479], ["2020-05-15", 0.47], ["2020-05-16", 0.464], ["2020-05-18", 0.464], ["2020-05-20", 0.451], ["2020-05-21", 0.445], ["2020-05-23", 0.442], ["2020-05-24", 0.442], ["2020-05-27", 0.442], ["2020-05-28", 0.441], ["2020-05-29", 0.441], ["2020-05-30", 0.44], ["2020-06-01", 0.437], ["2020-06-03", 0.436], ["2020-06-05", 0.434], ["2020-06-07", 0.432], ["2020-06-08", 0.432], ["2020-06-09", 0.428], ["2020-06-11", 0.43], ["2020-06-12", 0.431], ["2020-06-13", 0.424], ["2020-06-14", 0.425], ["2020-06-16", 0.425], ["2020-06-18", 0.425], ["2020-06-19", 0.428], ["2020-06-21", 0.424], ["2020-06-23", 0.424], ["2020-06-24", 0.423], ["2020-06-27", 0.421], ["2020-06-28", 0.419], ["2020-06-30", 0.419], ["2020-07-02", 0.414], ["2020-07-04", 0.412], ["2020-07-06", 0.409], ["2020-07-07", 0.342], ["2020-07-09", 0.321], ["2020-07-11", 0.314], ["2020-07-12", 0.314], ["2020-07-14", 0.311], ["2020-07-14", 0.299], ["2020-07-16", 0.281], ["2020-07-17", 0.271], ["2020-07-19", 0.269], ["2020-07-21", 0.265], ["2020-07-22", 0.26], ["2020-07-25", 0.26], ["2020-07-25", 0.26], ["2020-07-29", 0.258], ["2020-07-31", 0.255], ["2020-08-01", 0.254], ["2020-08-04", 0.254], ["2020-08-06", 0.252], ["2020-08-07", 0.25], ["2020-08-09", 0.248], ["2020-08-11", 0.247], ["2020-08-12", 0.242], ["2020-08-15", 0.241], ["2020-08-17", 0.238], ["2020-08-19", 0.236], ["2020-08-20", 0.23], ["2020-08-21", 0.23], ["2020-08-23", 0.23], ["2020-08-24", 0.229], ["2020-08-26", 0.229], ["2020-08-27", 0.228], ["2020-08-30", 0.224], ["2020-09-01", 0.157], ["2020-09-02", 0.151]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3932/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | Harvard has indefinitely suspended classes, as of March 23.
The fall semester would be normally scheduled to begin on Wednesday, September 2, 2020.
Will Harvard University open a majority of in-person classes on September 2, 2020?
This question resolves positively if most of the classes for courses at Harvard College that would usually be scheduled to occur on September 2nd have in person instruction on September 2nd, 2020. | true | 2020-09-02 | Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-16 | 2020-03-31 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-03", 0.15], ["2020-04-03", 0.165], ["2020-04-03", 0.327], ["2020-04-03", 0.295], ["2020-04-03", 0.382], ["2020-04-03", 0.387], ["2020-04-03", 0.397], ["2020-04-03", 0.397], ["2020-04-03", 0.38], ["2020-04-04", 0.402], ["2020-04-04", 0.414], ["2020-04-04", 0.389], ["2020-04-04", 0.379], ["2020-04-04", 0.379], ["2020-04-04", 0.371], ["2020-04-04", 0.366], ["2020-04-04", 0.366], ["2020-04-04", 0.378], ["2020-04-04", 0.377], ["2020-04-04", 0.381], ["2020-04-04", 0.386], ["2020-04-05", 0.384], ["2020-04-05", 0.379], ["2020-04-05", 0.379], ["2020-04-05", 0.379], ["2020-04-05", 0.376], ["2020-04-05", 0.376], ["2020-04-05", 0.362], ["2020-04-05", 0.359], ["2020-04-05", 0.361], ["2020-04-05", 0.364], ["2020-04-06", 0.374], ["2020-04-06", 0.374], ["2020-04-06", 0.352], ["2020-04-06", 0.345], ["2020-04-06", 0.345], ["2020-04-06", 0.341], ["2020-04-06", 0.337], ["2020-04-07", 0.332], ["2020-04-07", 0.326], ["2020-04-07", 0.326], ["2020-04-07", 0.325], ["2020-04-07", 0.324], ["2020-04-07", 0.323], ["2020-04-08", 0.317], ["2020-04-09", 0.314], ["2020-04-10", 0.314], ["2020-04-10", 0.313], ["2020-04-11", 0.313], ["2020-04-11", 0.313], ["2020-04-11", 0.312], ["2020-04-11", 0.312], ["2020-04-12", 0.308], ["2020-04-12", 0.308], ["2020-04-12", 0.31], ["2020-04-12", 0.308], ["2020-04-12", 0.308], ["2020-04-13", 0.305], ["2020-04-13", 0.302], ["2020-04-13", 0.302], ["2020-04-15", 0.297], ["2020-04-15", 0.293], ["2020-04-15", 0.292], ["2020-04-15", 0.287], ["2020-04-15", 0.283], ["2020-04-15", 0.282], ["2020-04-15", 0.282], ["2020-04-15", 0.279], ["2020-04-16", 0.276], ["2020-04-16", 0.274], ["2020-04-16", 0.273], ["2020-04-17", 0.27], ["2020-04-17", 0.27], ["2020-04-17", 0.27], ["2020-04-17", 0.267], ["2020-04-17", 0.268], ["2020-04-18", 0.267], ["2020-04-18", 0.266], ["2020-04-18", 0.265], ["2020-04-19", 0.263], ["2020-04-19", 0.263], ["2020-04-19", 0.26], ["2020-04-19", 0.26], ["2020-04-19", 0.259], ["2020-04-19", 0.257], ["2020-04-19", 0.257], ["2020-04-19", 0.256], ["2020-04-20", 0.254], ["2020-04-20", 0.24], ["2020-04-20", 0.227], ["2020-04-20", 0.227], ["2020-04-20", 0.219], ["2020-04-20", 0.212], ["2020-04-20", 0.199], ["2020-04-20", 0.199], ["2020-04-20", 0.198], ["2020-04-20", 0.198], ["2020-04-21", 0.197], ["2020-04-21", 0.198], ["2020-04-21", 0.197], ["2020-04-21", 0.197]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3991/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The number of people in the US under lockdown has continued to increase throughout March and as a result internet traffic has surged. Facebook CEO, Mark Zuckerburg, commented on the recent surge by saying, "We’re just trying to keep the lights on over here."
This question asks: Will any of the top 10 most popular US internet websites crash in the month of April?
For the purpose of this question, the top 10 US internet companies are:
Google
Youtube
Facebook
Wikipedia
Yahoo!
Amazon
Windows Live
Reddit
Netflix
Blogspot
A 'crash' will be defined as any period of time where service cannot be provided to at least 1 million users due to high demand. Resolution will be determined by whether at least three reliable news sources say that one of the relevant websites experienced an outage for any duration of time that affected at least 1 million users. For positive resolution, the company must specify that it was caused due to systems being overloaded by traffic (including DoS attacks). | true | 2020-04-21 | Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-18 | 2020-04-03 | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/its-official-the-covid-recession-lasted-just-two-months-the-shortest-in-us-history.html", "https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-warns-us-economy-could-reach-levels-great-depression-1727347"] | binary | [["2020-04-07", 0.73], ["2020-04-14", 0.739], ["2020-04-19", 0.709], ["2020-04-25", 0.699], ["2020-05-03", 0.69], ["2020-05-10", 0.692], ["2020-05-15", 0.69], ["2020-05-20", 0.681], ["2020-05-26", 0.683], ["2020-06-01", 0.681], ["2020-06-08", 0.651], ["2020-06-14", 0.646], ["2020-06-19", 0.645], ["2020-06-24", 0.635], ["2020-06-28", 0.633], ["2020-07-03", 0.629], ["2020-07-08", 0.621], ["2020-07-18", 0.621], ["2020-07-24", 0.6], ["2020-07-30", 0.602], ["2020-08-03", 0.591], ["2020-08-08", 0.59], ["2020-08-17", 0.545], ["2020-08-25", 0.542], ["2020-09-18", 0.541], ["2020-10-02", 0.541], ["2020-10-09", 0.533], ["2020-10-16", 0.531], ["2020-10-21", 0.526], ["2020-10-25", 0.52], ["2020-11-02", 0.52], ["2020-11-06", 0.516], ["2020-11-13", 0.51], ["2020-11-18", 0.498], ["2020-11-24", 0.499], ["2020-12-03", 0.438], ["2020-12-09", 0.435], ["2021-01-02", 0.431], ["2021-01-06", 0.427], ["2021-01-13", 0.416], ["2021-01-16", 0.414], ["2021-01-23", 0.406], ["2021-01-29", 0.404], ["2021-02-05", 0.401], ["2021-02-12", 0.4], ["2021-02-17", 0.391], ["2021-02-23", 0.388], ["2021-03-03", 0.385], ["2021-03-04", 0.385], ["2021-03-30", 0.384], ["2021-04-07", 0.385], ["2021-04-10", 0.381], ["2021-04-17", 0.378], ["2021-04-20", 0.371], ["2021-04-27", 0.37], ["2021-05-16", 0.37], ["2021-05-23", 0.37], ["2021-05-26", 0.369], ["2021-06-08", 0.369], ["2021-06-16", 0.367], ["2021-06-17", 0.362], ["2021-06-28", 0.362], ["2021-07-04", 0.362], ["2021-07-19", 0.36], ["2021-07-26", 0.357], ["2021-08-23", 0.354], ["2021-08-23", 0.354], ["2021-09-03", 0.352], ["2021-09-13", 0.352], ["2021-09-16", 0.352], ["2021-09-29", 0.352], ["2021-10-07", 0.349], ["2021-11-01", 0.349], ["2021-11-11", 0.348], ["2021-11-11", 0.348], ["2021-11-23", 0.35], ["2021-11-30", 0.348], ["2021-12-11", 0.348], ["2021-12-15", 0.326], ["2022-01-01", 0.324], ["2022-01-09", 0.32], ["2022-01-16", 0.321], ["2022-01-27", 0.321], ["2022-02-11", 0.323], ["2022-02-13", 0.321], ["2022-03-02", 0.321], ["2022-03-06", 0.321], ["2022-03-15", 0.324], ["2022-03-26", 0.323], ["2022-03-26", 0.323], ["2022-04-03", 0.321], ["2022-04-19", 0.321], ["2022-04-27", 0.317], ["2022-04-30", 0.315], ["2022-05-13", 0.316], ["2022-05-18", 0.314], ["2022-06-11", 0.314], ["2022-06-18", 0.309], ["2022-06-25", 0.307], ["2022-07-09", 0.306], ["2022-07-15", 0.298]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4013/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and unemployment has skyrocketed. It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is "Will the US Experience a Depression?" According to Investopedia:
A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.
According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?
This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:
The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by this Metaculus Question's resolution--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively).
Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis) is estimated to be -10% or less. | true | 2027-01-01 | Will the next US recession turn into a depression? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-30 | 2020-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-09", 0.2], ["2020-04-11", 0.325], ["2020-04-11", 0.286], ["2020-04-12", 0.234], ["2020-04-13", 0.212], ["2020-04-15", 0.199], ["2020-04-16", 0.18], ["2020-04-17", 0.164], ["2020-04-18", 0.187], ["2020-04-21", 0.17], ["2020-04-23", 0.162], ["2020-04-24", 0.145], ["2020-04-25", 0.145], ["2020-04-26", 0.134], ["2020-04-27", 0.131], ["2020-05-01", 0.13], ["2020-05-13", 0.129], ["2020-05-17", 0.126], ["2020-05-30", 0.125], ["2020-06-01", 0.124], ["2020-06-03", 0.124], ["2020-06-04", 0.127], ["2020-06-09", 0.126], ["2020-06-13", 0.126], ["2020-06-21", 0.122], ["2020-06-24", 0.122], ["2020-07-11", 0.12], ["2020-07-11", 0.117], ["2020-07-31", 0.116], ["2020-08-08", 0.116], ["2020-08-21", 0.113], ["2020-09-06", 0.111], ["2020-09-25", 0.111], ["2020-10-16", 0.11], ["2020-11-08", 0.11], ["2020-11-08", 0.109], ["2020-11-18", 0.11], ["2020-11-18", 0.111], ["2020-11-24", 0.109], ["2020-11-25", 0.099], ["2020-11-30", 0.094], ["2020-11-30", 0.093], ["2020-12-03", 0.093], ["2020-12-12", 0.093], ["2020-12-23", 0.092], ["2020-12-25", 0.09], ["2020-12-29", 0.09], ["2021-01-06", 0.09], ["2021-01-07", 0.088], ["2021-01-12", 0.088], ["2021-01-13", 0.091], ["2021-01-14", 0.089], ["2021-01-21", 0.089], ["2021-01-24", 0.088], ["2021-02-01", 0.088], ["2021-02-02", 0.073], ["2021-02-03", 0.072], ["2021-02-04", 0.071], ["2021-02-06", 0.068], ["2021-02-08", 0.068], ["2021-02-10", 0.069], ["2021-02-13", 0.068], ["2021-02-14", 0.068], ["2021-02-20", 0.068], ["2021-02-23", 0.067], ["2021-02-24", 0.066], ["2021-02-28", 0.066], ["2021-03-08", 0.068], ["2021-03-11", 0.068], ["2021-03-12", 0.066], ["2021-04-02", 0.065], ["2021-04-04", 0.064], ["2021-04-05", 0.064], ["2021-04-07", 0.063], ["2021-04-10", 0.063], ["2021-04-17", 0.063], ["2021-04-25", 0.063], ["2021-05-02", 0.063], ["2021-05-12", 0.062], ["2021-05-12", 0.062], ["2021-05-23", 0.062], ["2021-05-28", 0.062], ["2021-05-31", 0.062], ["2021-06-18", 0.059], ["2021-06-20", 0.061], ["2021-06-24", 0.061], ["2021-06-24", 0.06], ["2021-06-26", 0.06], ["2021-07-09", 0.06], ["2021-07-12", 0.059], ["2021-07-16", 0.06], ["2021-07-20", 0.06], ["2021-07-26", 0.061], ["2021-07-26", 0.06], ["2021-08-01", 0.06], ["2021-08-16", 0.06], ["2021-08-17", 0.06], ["2021-08-24", 0.06], ["2021-08-28", 0.06], ["2021-08-31", 0.06], ["2021-09-01", 0.052]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4035/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a disease outbreak causing many locales to issue lockdowns. These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an increase in the unemployment rate, as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
On the 18th of March 2020, economist Bryan Caplan wrote a blog post titled "I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming". Some excerpts:
The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of stagflation – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to bet on it, I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?
This question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as "price controls", "price ceilings", "price maxima", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.
For the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:
USA Today
The Wall Street Journal
The New York Times
The Los Angeles Times
The Washington Post
The Chicago Tribune
The Boston Tribune
Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
What will inflation be in the US in 2021?
What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? | true | 2021-09-01 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question resolves positively if an official statement is released by Downing Street stating that Johnson has recovered from COVID-19 or he is still alive on 2020-06-06.
It resolves negatively otherwise. | true | 2020-04-12 | Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
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As of 20 March 2020, the WHO (World Health Organization) is reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines. Two of these candidates have entered phase one and the other forty-two remain in the pre-clinical stage. One of the candidates in phase one is a RNA vaccine candidate, as are seven of the candidates in the pre-clinical stage.
RNA vaccines are of particular interest because they can be developed and produced relatively quickly since, unlike other vaccine platforms, they do not require fermentation or culture and instead use faster synthetic processes. As a result, the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate to enter a phase one clinical trial is a RNA vaccine, mRNA-1273, which was developed by Moderna Therapeutics at record speed.
While promising, RNA-based vaccine platforms are a new development and the field is still nascent. No RNA vaccine has ever made it to market. And since no RNA vaccine has been approved to date, there is an urgent need to determine the likelihood of successful development of such a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2.
This question asks: Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?
Resolution will be determined via the first relevant press release made by the FDA, EMA, or European Commission regarding the approval of a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate. In the United States, approval means that the vaccine candidate has been licensed by the FDA. In the European Union, approval means that the EMA has recommended the vaccine candidate for approval and the European Commission has granted that approval via marketing authorization. Approval under any other emergency procedures, such as expanded access, would not count. | true | 2020-12-08 | Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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The resolution to this question does not depend on the closing price or whether the terms of the merger change; only whether the merger is completed before midnight on July 1, 2020.
Resolution is by credible financial media sources. | true | 2020-07-01 | Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question resolves to a YES if LOGM is acquired prior to June 01, 2020, regardless of final acquisition price and terms of the acquisition.
Resolution is by credible financial media sources. | true | 2020-06-01 | Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:
Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender).
Does not have representation in the European Central Bank. | true | 2022-02-15 | Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020
This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that Art Basel has taken place at Messe Basel from September 17 to September 20. For the purpose of this question, if Art Basel holds mostly online exhibitions, the question resolves negatively. | true | 2020-07-01 | Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020 | metaculus | 0 |
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As of 17 April 2020, over 2.1 million cases and over 147,000 deaths have been reported, mostly in the United States.
This question asks: Within any single calendar month in 2020, will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, be reported?
This question resolves as the number reported by:
The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard, or, if that source is no longer available or no longer considered reliable,
the WHO situation reports, or another source judged credible by Metaculus administrators.
Related questions:
Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
Will at least 400,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?
Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | true | 2020-11-30 | Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-07 | 2020-04-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-22", 0.8], ["2020-04-22", 0.2], ["2020-04-22", 0.2], ["2020-04-23", 0.132], ["2020-04-24", 0.132], ["2020-04-25", 0.094], ["2020-04-25", 0.142], ["2020-04-26", 0.14], ["2020-04-26", 0.124], ["2020-04-27", 0.124], ["2020-04-28", 0.124], ["2020-04-28", 0.114], ["2020-04-28", 0.112], ["2020-04-28", 0.103], ["2020-04-29", 0.099], ["2020-04-29", 0.099], ["2020-04-30", 0.102], ["2020-04-30", 0.102], ["2020-04-30", 0.123], ["2020-05-01", 0.12], ["2020-05-03", 0.12], ["2020-05-03", 0.117], ["2020-05-04", 0.12], ["2020-05-10", 0.156], ["2020-05-10", 0.156], ["2020-05-12", 0.15], ["2020-05-17", 0.149], ["2020-05-17", 0.148], ["2020-05-19", 0.148], ["2020-05-19", 0.162], ["2020-05-20", 0.162], ["2020-06-01", 0.155], ["2020-06-04", 0.16], ["2020-06-07", 0.154], ["2020-06-24", 0.154], ["2020-06-29", 0.16], ["2020-07-06", 0.16], ["2020-07-10", 0.16], ["2020-07-15", 0.156], ["2020-07-15", 0.148], ["2020-07-16", 0.14], ["2020-07-16", 0.14], ["2020-07-25", 0.136], ["2020-07-29", 0.136], ["2020-08-05", 0.132], ["2020-08-14", 0.132], ["2020-08-15", 0.132], ["2020-08-17", 0.132], ["2020-08-19", 0.133], ["2020-08-19", 0.133], ["2020-08-20", 0.131], ["2020-08-20", 0.155], ["2020-09-07", 0.156], ["2020-09-07", 0.156], ["2020-09-09", 0.153], ["2020-09-09", 0.153], ["2020-09-13", 0.151], ["2020-09-13", 0.151], ["2020-09-14", 0.151], ["2020-09-20", 0.146], ["2020-09-23", 0.146], ["2020-09-25", 0.144], ["2020-09-25", 0.145], ["2020-09-26", 0.145], ["2020-10-02", 0.145], ["2020-10-05", 0.142], ["2020-10-05", 0.143], ["2020-10-06", 0.142], ["2020-10-06", 0.137], ["2020-10-08", 0.136], ["2020-10-09", 0.136], ["2020-10-09", 0.133], ["2020-10-10", 0.134], ["2020-10-10", 0.134], ["2020-10-10", 0.133], ["2020-10-15", 0.134], ["2020-10-16", 0.135], ["2020-10-16", 0.133], ["2020-10-16", 0.133], ["2020-10-17", 0.132], ["2020-10-18", 0.129], ["2020-10-20", 0.129], ["2020-10-22", 0.129], ["2020-10-22", 0.128], ["2020-10-24", 0.128], ["2020-10-26", 0.127], ["2020-10-26", 0.128], ["2020-10-27", 0.131], ["2020-10-27", 0.131], ["2020-10-27", 0.132], ["2020-10-30", 0.132], ["2020-10-30", 0.133], ["2020-10-30", 0.137], ["2020-10-31", 0.137], ["2020-11-01", 0.138], ["2020-11-01", 0.138], ["2020-11-01", 0.138], ["2020-11-02", 0.138], ["2020-11-02", 0.142], ["2020-11-03", 0.14], ["2020-11-03", 0.142]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4220/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Wayne Hsuing is the co-founder of Direct Action Everywhere, an animal rights group, and is an assistant law professor. He has controversially been involved in animal rights activism, including events where participants have entered farms without the owner's consent in order to rescue animals.
On April 3rd, he announced that he was running for Mayor of Berkeley. This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media sources report that he has been elected mayor of the city of Berkeley in 2020. Otherwise, it resolve negatively. | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-10 | 2020-04-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.6], ["2020-04-27", 0.35], ["2020-04-27", 0.34], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.28], ["2020-04-27", 0.288], ["2020-04-27", 0.292], ["2020-04-27", 0.292], ["2020-04-27", 0.234], ["2020-04-27", 0.223], ["2020-04-27", 0.237], ["2020-04-27", 0.237], ["2020-04-27", 0.216], ["2020-04-27", 0.225], ["2020-04-27", 0.249], ["2020-04-27", 0.227], ["2020-04-27", 0.211], ["2020-04-27", 0.207], ["2020-04-27", 0.207], ["2020-04-27", 0.209], ["2020-04-27", 0.191], ["2020-04-27", 0.179], ["2020-04-27", 0.17], ["2020-04-27", 0.173], ["2020-04-27", 0.154], ["2020-04-27", 0.145], ["2020-04-27", 0.143], ["2020-04-27", 0.143], ["2020-04-27", 0.137], ["2020-04-27", 0.124], ["2020-04-27", 0.124], ["2020-04-27", 0.117], ["2020-04-27", 0.119], ["2020-04-27", 0.116], ["2020-04-27", 0.116], ["2020-04-27", 0.116], ["2020-04-27", 0.112], ["2020-04-27", 0.112], ["2020-04-27", 0.112], ["2020-04-27", 0.109], ["2020-04-27", 0.105], ["2020-04-27", 0.105], ["2020-04-27", 0.104], ["2020-04-27", 0.098], ["2020-04-28", 0.098], ["2020-04-28", 0.098], ["2020-04-28", 0.097], ["2020-04-28", 0.096], ["2020-04-28", 0.095], ["2020-04-28", 0.095], ["2020-04-28", 0.096], ["2020-04-28", 0.095], ["2020-04-28", 0.092], ["2020-04-28", 0.092], ["2020-04-28", 0.093], ["2020-04-28", 0.089], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.091], ["2020-04-28", 0.09], ["2020-04-28", 0.09], ["2020-04-28", 0.089], ["2020-04-28", 0.089], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.086], ["2020-04-28", 0.086], ["2020-04-28", 0.088], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.087], ["2020-04-28", 0.085], ["2020-04-28", 0.085], ["2020-04-28", 0.085], ["2020-04-28", 0.083], ["2020-04-28", 0.083], ["2020-04-28", 0.084], ["2020-04-28", 0.083], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.08], ["2020-04-28", 0.08], ["2020-04-28", 0.08], ["2020-04-28", 0.082], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.08], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.081], ["2020-04-28", 0.08], ["2020-04-28", 0.08]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4253/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:
from (and including) Sunday April 26th to (and including) Saturday May 2nd?
or
from (and including) Sunday May 3rd to (and including) Saturday May 9th?
Weekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the COVID tracker spreadsheet. This question will resolve using the data on the "US Daily 4pm ET" tab on 2020-05-10 at 16:00 EST. | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-14 | 2020-04-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-26", 0.66], ["2020-04-26", 0.369], ["2020-04-26", 0.321], ["2020-04-26", 0.299], ["2020-04-26", 0.3], ["2020-04-26", 0.295], ["2020-04-26", 0.285], ["2020-04-26", 0.28], ["2020-04-26", 0.272], ["2020-04-27", 0.253], ["2020-04-27", 0.235], ["2020-04-27", 0.229], ["2020-04-27", 0.228], ["2020-04-27", 0.222], ["2020-04-27", 0.228], ["2020-04-27", 0.222], ["2020-04-27", 0.22], ["2020-04-27", 0.226], ["2020-04-27", 0.227], ["2020-04-28", 0.227], ["2020-04-28", 0.227], ["2020-04-28", 0.228], ["2020-04-28", 0.227], ["2020-04-28", 0.235], ["2020-04-28", 0.232], ["2020-04-29", 0.232], ["2020-04-29", 0.233], ["2020-04-29", 0.231], ["2020-04-29", 0.23], ["2020-04-29", 0.226], ["2020-04-29", 0.232], ["2020-04-29", 0.232], ["2020-04-30", 0.237], ["2020-04-30", 0.236], ["2020-04-30", 0.232], ["2020-04-30", 0.232], ["2020-04-30", 0.228], ["2020-04-30", 0.22], ["2020-04-30", 0.223], ["2020-04-30", 0.224], ["2020-05-01", 0.225], ["2020-05-01", 0.225], ["2020-05-01", 0.228], ["2020-05-01", 0.228], ["2020-05-01", 0.228], ["2020-05-01", 0.226], ["2020-05-01", 0.226], ["2020-05-01", 0.225], ["2020-05-01", 0.205], ["2020-05-02", 0.198], ["2020-05-02", 0.19], ["2020-05-02", 0.185], ["2020-05-02", 0.178], ["2020-05-02", 0.166], ["2020-05-02", 0.166], ["2020-05-02", 0.154], ["2020-05-02", 0.149], ["2020-05-02", 0.138], ["2020-05-03", 0.14], ["2020-05-03", 0.141], ["2020-05-03", 0.141], ["2020-05-03", 0.14], ["2020-05-03", 0.139], ["2020-05-03", 0.137], ["2020-05-03", 0.136], ["2020-05-03", 0.135], ["2020-05-03", 0.133], ["2020-05-04", 0.127], ["2020-05-04", 0.126], ["2020-05-04", 0.124], ["2020-05-04", 0.124], ["2020-05-05", 0.124], ["2020-05-05", 0.124], ["2020-05-05", 0.123], ["2020-05-06", 0.123], ["2020-05-06", 0.125], ["2020-05-06", 0.125], ["2020-05-06", 0.125], ["2020-05-06", 0.124], ["2020-05-06", 0.123], ["2020-05-07", 0.123], ["2020-05-07", 0.123], ["2020-05-07", 0.122], ["2020-05-07", 0.122], ["2020-05-07", 0.122], ["2020-05-07", 0.121], ["2020-05-08", 0.121], ["2020-05-08", 0.121], ["2020-05-08", 0.12], ["2020-05-08", 0.119], ["2020-05-08", 0.119], ["2020-05-08", 0.114], ["2020-05-08", 0.112], ["2020-05-08", 0.109], ["2020-05-09", 0.084], ["2020-05-09", 0.079], ["2020-05-09", 0.072], ["2020-05-09", 0.072], ["2020-05-09", 0.071], ["2020-05-09", 0.07], ["2020-05-09", 0.068]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4260/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kim Jong-un has been the Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012.
On 20 April 2020, CNN reported that US agencies were monitoring intelligence that Kim was in "grave danger" after having surgery, and that he had not been seen in public for ten days at the time of reporting. However, conflicting reports from South Korea suggest that there were no signs of anything unusual taking place in North Korea regarding Kim's health. On April 24, Reuters reported that China had sent a team of medical experts to North Korea to 'advise on Kim.'
As of 25 April 2020, Kim's health status is unknown.
This question asks: Before May 15 2020, will the government of North Korea officially confirm or acknowledge the death of Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea?
Positive resolution requires that the government of North Korea acknowledges or confirms that Kim Jong-un is dead. If this does not take place before 00:00 UTC on May 15 2020, the question resolves negatively. | true | 2020-05-09 | Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-18 | 2020-04-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-26", 0.57], ["2020-04-27", 0.555], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.472], ["2020-04-27", 0.477], ["2020-04-27", 0.475], ["2020-04-27", 0.503], ["2020-04-27", 0.503], ["2020-04-27", 0.575], ["2020-04-27", 0.575], ["2020-04-27", 0.561], ["2020-04-28", 0.561], ["2020-04-28", 0.574], ["2020-04-28", 0.581], ["2020-04-28", 0.581], ["2020-04-28", 0.584], ["2020-04-28", 0.579], ["2020-04-28", 0.57], ["2020-04-28", 0.564], ["2020-04-28", 0.561], ["2020-04-28", 0.569], ["2020-04-28", 0.566], ["2020-04-28", 0.566], ["2020-04-28", 0.57], ["2020-04-28", 0.57], ["2020-04-28", 0.57], ["2020-04-29", 0.571], ["2020-04-29", 0.571], ["2020-04-29", 0.572], ["2020-04-29", 0.574], ["2020-04-29", 0.574], ["2020-04-29", 0.572], ["2020-04-29", 0.57], ["2020-04-29", 0.57], ["2020-04-29", 0.57], ["2020-04-29", 0.565], ["2020-04-29", 0.565], ["2020-04-30", 0.559], ["2020-04-30", 0.559], ["2020-04-30", 0.555], ["2020-04-30", 0.554], ["2020-04-30", 0.554], ["2020-04-30", 0.552], ["2020-04-30", 0.551], ["2020-04-30", 0.551], ["2020-05-01", 0.548], ["2020-05-01", 0.548], ["2020-05-01", 0.547], ["2020-05-01", 0.546], ["2020-05-01", 0.543], ["2020-05-01", 0.543], ["2020-05-02", 0.547], ["2020-05-02", 0.547], ["2020-05-02", 0.545], ["2020-05-02", 0.545], ["2020-05-03", 0.543], ["2020-05-03", 0.543], ["2020-05-03", 0.538], ["2020-05-03", 0.536], ["2020-05-03", 0.538], ["2020-05-03", 0.538], ["2020-05-03", 0.538], ["2020-05-03", 0.538], ["2020-05-03", 0.54], ["2020-05-03", 0.54], ["2020-05-03", 0.537], ["2020-05-04", 0.533], ["2020-05-04", 0.538], ["2020-05-04", 0.536], ["2020-05-04", 0.536], ["2020-05-04", 0.537], ["2020-05-04", 0.537], ["2020-05-04", 0.539], ["2020-05-04", 0.539]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4272/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Metaculus is participating in COVID-19 Expert Surveys, in collaboration with researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Each week we will be launching up to 8 questions in which the community will have 30 hours to lock in their predictions.
Researchers will concurrently distribute the same questions to some of the worlds leading infectious disease experts.
Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round (LRT2)?
This question resolves positively if the average log score for all continuous questions in the second round that resolve unambiguously is higher for the community prediction than for the Metaculus prediction, according to our Track record. | true | 2020-05-04 | Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-24 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.39], ["2020-04-27", 0.39], ["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.455], ["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.328], ["2020-04-27", 0.328], ["2020-04-27", 0.397], ["2020-04-27", 0.397], ["2020-04-27", 0.37], ["2020-04-27", 0.325], ["2020-04-27", 0.325], ["2020-04-27", 0.311], ["2020-04-27", 0.292], ["2020-04-27", 0.271], ["2020-04-27", 0.271], ["2020-04-27", 0.261], ["2020-04-27", 0.258], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.263], ["2020-04-27", 0.263], ["2020-04-27", 0.26], ["2020-04-27", 0.261], ["2020-04-27", 0.257], ["2020-04-27", 0.255], ["2020-04-27", 0.251], ["2020-04-27", 0.251], ["2020-04-27", 0.257], ["2020-04-27", 0.259], ["2020-04-27", 0.259], ["2020-04-27", 0.252], ["2020-04-27", 0.246], ["2020-04-27", 0.246], ["2020-04-27", 0.252], ["2020-04-27", 0.248], ["2020-04-27", 0.248], ["2020-04-27", 0.249], ["2020-04-28", 0.25], ["2020-04-28", 0.247], ["2020-04-28", 0.247], ["2020-04-28", 0.244], ["2020-04-28", 0.242], ["2020-04-28", 0.242], ["2020-04-28", 0.241], ["2020-04-28", 0.241], ["2020-04-28", 0.241], ["2020-04-28", 0.238], ["2020-04-28", 0.236], ["2020-04-28", 0.232], ["2020-04-28", 0.23], ["2020-04-28", 0.228], ["2020-04-28", 0.228], ["2020-04-28", 0.23], ["2020-04-28", 0.23], ["2020-04-28", 0.229], ["2020-04-28", 0.229], ["2020-04-28", 0.233], ["2020-04-28", 0.232], ["2020-04-28", 0.232], ["2020-04-28", 0.231], ["2020-04-28", 0.228], ["2020-04-28", 0.228], ["2020-04-28", 0.227], ["2020-04-28", 0.226], ["2020-04-28", 0.228], ["2020-04-28", 0.226], ["2020-04-28", 0.226], ["2020-04-28", 0.226], ["2020-04-28", 0.223], ["2020-04-28", 0.221], ["2020-04-28", 0.221], ["2020-04-28", 0.219], ["2020-04-28", 0.219], ["2020-04-28", 0.218], ["2020-04-28", 0.218], ["2020-04-28", 0.22], ["2020-04-28", 0.219], ["2020-04-28", 0.218], ["2020-04-28", 0.218], ["2020-04-28", 0.215], ["2020-04-28", 0.214], ["2020-04-28", 0.215], ["2020-04-28", 0.214], ["2020-04-28", 0.217], ["2020-04-28", 0.218], ["2020-04-28", 0.219], ["2020-04-28", 0.218], ["2020-04-28", 0.221], ["2020-04-28", 0.223], ["2020-04-28", 0.223], ["2020-04-28", 0.224], ["2020-04-28", 0.221], ["2020-04-28", 0.221], ["2020-04-28", 0.221], ["2020-04-28", 0.22], ["2020-04-28", 0.22], ["2020-04-28", 0.219]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4277/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:
from (and including) Sunday May 10th to (and including) Saturday May 16th?
or
from (and including) Sunday May 17th to (and including) Saturday May 23rd?
Weekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the COVID tracker spreadsheet. This question will resolve using the data on the "US Daily 4pm ET" tab on 2020-05-24 at 16:00 EST. | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-07 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.37], ["2020-04-27", 0.33], ["2020-04-27", 0.35], ["2020-04-27", 0.35], ["2020-04-27", 0.283], ["2020-04-27", 0.22], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.28], ["2020-04-27", 0.29], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.285], ["2020-04-27", 0.285], ["2020-04-27", 0.269], ["2020-04-27", 0.274], ["2020-04-27", 0.307], ["2020-04-27", 0.306], ["2020-04-27", 0.301], ["2020-04-27", 0.301], ["2020-04-27", 0.296], ["2020-04-27", 0.294], ["2020-04-27", 0.306], ["2020-04-27", 0.3], ["2020-04-27", 0.3], ["2020-04-27", 0.301], ["2020-04-27", 0.327], ["2020-04-27", 0.333], ["2020-04-27", 0.333], ["2020-04-27", 0.336], ["2020-04-27", 0.341], ["2020-04-27", 0.339], ["2020-04-27", 0.339], ["2020-04-27", 0.34], ["2020-04-28", 0.343], ["2020-04-28", 0.343], ["2020-04-28", 0.336], ["2020-04-28", 0.336], ["2020-04-28", 0.338], ["2020-04-28", 0.332], ["2020-04-28", 0.332], ["2020-04-28", 0.332], ["2020-04-28", 0.334], ["2020-04-28", 0.345], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.339], ["2020-04-28", 0.339], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.341], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.354], ["2020-04-28", 0.353], ["2020-04-28", 0.355], ["2020-04-28", 0.355], ["2020-04-28", 0.355], ["2020-04-28", 0.356], ["2020-04-28", 0.356], ["2020-04-28", 0.353], ["2020-04-28", 0.352], ["2020-04-28", 0.35], ["2020-04-28", 0.35], ["2020-04-28", 0.349], ["2020-04-28", 0.349], ["2020-04-28", 0.346], ["2020-04-28", 0.345], ["2020-04-28", 0.345], ["2020-04-28", 0.344], ["2020-04-28", 0.342], ["2020-04-28", 0.343], ["2020-04-28", 0.344], ["2020-04-28", 0.345], ["2020-04-28", 0.345], ["2020-04-28", 0.345], ["2020-04-28", 0.346], ["2020-04-28", 0.344], ["2020-04-28", 0.344], ["2020-04-28", 0.344], ["2020-04-28", 0.349], ["2020-04-28", 0.349], ["2020-04-28", 0.352], ["2020-04-28", 0.354], ["2020-04-28", 0.356], ["2020-04-28", 0.356], ["2020-04-28", 0.356], ["2020-04-28", 0.356], ["2020-04-28", 0.354], ["2020-04-28", 0.353], ["2020-04-28", 0.352], ["2020-04-28", 0.352], ["2020-04-28", 0.353], ["2020-04-28", 0.353], ["2020-04-28", 0.353], ["2020-04-28", 0.35], ["2020-04-28", 0.349]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4279/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:
from (and including) Sunday May 24th to (and including) Saturday May 30th?
or
from (and including) Sunday May 31st to (and including) Saturday June 6th?
Weekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the COVID tracker spreadsheet. This question will resolve using the data on the "US Daily 4pm ET" tab on 2020-06-07 at 16:00 EST. | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-21 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.18], ["2020-04-27", 0.18], ["2020-04-27", 0.12], ["2020-04-27", 0.163], ["2020-04-27", 0.125], ["2020-04-27", 0.234], ["2020-04-27", 0.212], ["2020-04-27", 0.212], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.223], ["2020-04-27", 0.202], ["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["2020-04-27", 0.192], ["2020-04-27", 0.192], ["2020-04-27", 0.195], ["2020-04-27", 0.196], ["2020-04-27", 0.196], ["2020-04-27", 0.249], ["2020-04-27", 0.248], ["2020-04-27", 0.248], ["2020-04-27", 0.245], ["2020-04-27", 0.238], ["2020-04-27", 0.235], ["2020-04-27", 0.235], ["2020-04-27", 0.262], ["2020-04-27", 0.253], ["2020-04-27", 0.249], ["2020-04-27", 0.249], ["2020-04-27", 0.255], ["2020-04-27", 0.252], ["2020-04-27", 0.252], ["2020-04-27", 0.256], ["2020-04-27", 0.257], ["2020-04-27", 0.258], ["2020-04-27", 0.258], ["2020-04-27", 0.256], ["2020-04-27", 0.256], ["2020-04-27", 0.255], ["2020-04-27", 0.255], ["2020-04-27", 0.255], ["2020-04-28", 0.268], ["2020-04-28", 0.265], ["2020-04-28", 0.261], ["2020-04-28", 0.26], ["2020-04-28", 0.257], ["2020-04-28", 0.26], ["2020-04-28", 0.26], ["2020-04-28", 0.256], ["2020-04-28", 0.255], ["2020-04-28", 0.259], ["2020-04-28", 0.259], ["2020-04-28", 0.261], ["2020-04-28", 0.261], ["2020-04-28", 0.263], ["2020-04-28", 0.263], ["2020-04-28", 0.261], ["2020-04-28", 0.261], ["2020-04-28", 0.26], ["2020-04-28", 0.26], ["2020-04-28", 0.26], ["2020-04-28", 0.262], ["2020-04-28", 0.262], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.275], ["2020-04-28", 0.275], ["2020-04-28", 0.276], ["2020-04-28", 0.276], ["2020-04-28", 0.277], ["2020-04-28", 0.276], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.273], ["2020-04-28", 0.273], ["2020-04-28", 0.275], ["2020-04-28", 0.275], ["2020-04-28", 0.273], ["2020-04-28", 0.271], ["2020-04-28", 0.271], ["2020-04-28", 0.271], ["2020-04-28", 0.27], ["2020-04-28", 0.271], ["2020-04-28", 0.271], ["2020-04-28", 0.276], ["2020-04-28", 0.276], ["2020-04-28", 0.276], ["2020-04-28", 0.275], ["2020-04-28", 0.269], ["2020-04-28", 0.275], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.273], ["2020-04-28", 0.273], ["2020-04-28", 0.272], ["2020-04-28", 0.274], ["2020-04-28", 0.273], ["2020-04-28", 0.272], ["2020-04-28", 0.272]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4280/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for either of the two periods:
from (and including) Sunday June 7th to (and including) Saturday June 13th?
or
from (and including) Sunday June 14th to (and including) Saturday June 20th?
Weekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for either week is the first such week to be below 5,000 as reported by the COVID tracker spreadsheet. This question will resolve using the data on the "US Daily 4pm ET" tab on 2020-06-015 at 16:00 EST. | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-21 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["2020-04-27", 0.137], ["2020-04-27", 0.153], ["2020-04-27", 0.272], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.285], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.278], ["2020-04-27", 0.357], ["2020-04-27", 0.346], ["2020-04-27", 0.38], ["2020-04-27", 0.38], ["2020-04-27", 0.339], ["2020-04-27", 0.339], ["2020-04-27", 0.336], ["2020-04-27", 0.313], ["2020-04-27", 0.313], ["2020-04-27", 0.308], ["2020-04-27", 0.308], ["2020-04-27", 0.294], ["2020-04-27", 0.29], ["2020-04-27", 0.29], ["2020-04-27", 0.303], ["2020-04-27", 0.303], ["2020-04-27", 0.309], ["2020-04-27", 0.311], ["2020-04-27", 0.303], ["2020-04-27", 0.291], ["2020-04-27", 0.286], ["2020-04-27", 0.284], ["2020-04-27", 0.278], ["2020-04-27", 0.277], ["2020-04-27", 0.277], ["2020-04-28", 0.29], ["2020-04-28", 0.29], ["2020-04-28", 0.299], ["2020-04-28", 0.299], ["2020-04-28", 0.296], ["2020-04-28", 0.293], ["2020-04-28", 0.293], ["2020-04-28", 0.3], ["2020-04-28", 0.3], ["2020-04-28", 0.307], ["2020-04-28", 0.308], ["2020-04-28", 0.309], ["2020-04-28", 0.307], ["2020-04-28", 0.307], ["2020-04-28", 0.306], ["2020-04-28", 0.305], ["2020-04-28", 0.305], ["2020-04-28", 0.305], ["2020-04-28", 0.302], ["2020-04-28", 0.302], ["2020-04-28", 0.303], ["2020-04-28", 0.314], ["2020-04-28", 0.325], ["2020-04-28", 0.322], ["2020-04-28", 0.324], ["2020-04-28", 0.324], ["2020-04-28", 0.321], ["2020-04-28", 0.321], ["2020-04-28", 0.322], ["2020-04-28", 0.322], ["2020-04-28", 0.32], ["2020-04-28", 0.318], ["2020-04-28", 0.318], ["2020-04-28", 0.323], ["2020-04-28", 0.323], ["2020-04-28", 0.323], ["2020-04-28", 0.323], ["2020-04-28", 0.322], ["2020-04-28", 0.323], ["2020-04-28", 0.321], ["2020-04-28", 0.319], ["2020-04-28", 0.318], ["2020-04-28", 0.318], ["2020-04-28", 0.316], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-04-28", 0.313], ["2020-04-28", 0.314], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-04-28", 0.316], ["2020-04-28", 0.314], ["2020-04-28", 0.314], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-04-28", 0.313], ["2020-04-28", 0.315], ["2020-04-28", 0.315], ["2020-04-28", 0.315], ["2020-04-28", 0.314], ["2020-04-28", 0.313], ["2020-04-28", 0.314], ["2020-04-28", 0.313], ["2020-04-28", 0.313], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-04-28", 0.312]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4281/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 in any week after the week ending on June 20th?
Weekly new deaths will be calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday of each week. A positive resolution will result if the number of deaths for the week ending on June 20th, or any subsequent week is the first week to be below 5,000 as reported by the COVID tracker spreadsheet.
ETA (28/04): if the disease becomes endemic and mortality never drops below 5000/week, this question will resolve ambiguously. | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-04-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-01", 0.58], ["2020-05-01", 0.45], ["2020-05-01", 0.392], ["2020-05-01", 0.335], ["2020-05-01", 0.332], ["2020-05-01", 0.313], ["2020-05-01", 0.299], ["2020-05-01", 0.253], ["2020-05-01", 0.278], ["2020-05-01", 0.278], ["2020-05-01", 0.259], ["2020-05-01", 0.26], ["2020-05-01", 0.263], ["2020-05-01", 0.257], ["2020-05-01", 0.27], ["2020-05-02", 0.268], ["2020-05-02", 0.272], ["2020-05-02", 0.27], ["2020-05-02", 0.274], ["2020-05-02", 0.274], ["2020-05-02", 0.275], ["2020-05-02", 0.277], ["2020-05-02", 0.277], ["2020-05-02", 0.289], ["2020-05-02", 0.289], ["2020-05-03", 0.289], ["2020-05-03", 0.29], ["2020-05-03", 0.29], ["2020-05-03", 0.291], ["2020-05-04", 0.295], ["2020-05-04", 0.301], ["2020-05-05", 0.301], ["2020-05-05", 0.303], ["2020-05-07", 0.304], ["2020-05-07", 0.302], ["2020-05-09", 0.302], ["2020-05-10", 0.3], ["2020-05-10", 0.302], ["2020-05-11", 0.302], ["2020-05-12", 0.304], ["2020-05-12", 0.299], ["2020-05-15", 0.301], ["2020-05-16", 0.301], ["2020-05-16", 0.303], ["2020-05-16", 0.303], ["2020-05-17", 0.303], ["2020-05-17", 0.303], ["2020-05-18", 0.302], ["2020-05-18", 0.302], ["2020-05-18", 0.3], ["2020-05-18", 0.297], ["2020-05-20", 0.298], ["2020-05-20", 0.297], ["2020-05-22", 0.297], ["2020-06-03", 0.295], ["2020-06-04", 0.294], ["2020-06-04", 0.292], ["2020-06-04", 0.292], ["2020-06-04", 0.292], ["2020-06-05", 0.29], ["2020-06-07", 0.293], ["2020-06-11", 0.293], ["2020-06-15", 0.289], ["2020-06-15", 0.289], ["2020-06-24", 0.297], ["2020-06-24", 0.29], ["2020-06-24", 0.29], ["2020-06-24", 0.292], ["2020-06-24", 0.295], ["2020-06-25", 0.295], ["2020-06-25", 0.296], ["2020-06-25", 0.296], ["2020-06-25", 0.308], ["2020-06-26", 0.309], ["2020-06-27", 0.311], ["2020-06-29", 0.31], ["2020-07-01", 0.31], ["2020-07-03", 0.311], ["2020-07-05", 0.31], ["2020-07-06", 0.31], ["2020-07-16", 0.311], ["2020-07-18", 0.311], ["2020-07-22", 0.309], ["2020-07-23", 0.309], ["2020-07-24", 0.31], ["2020-07-25", 0.311], ["2020-07-26", 0.309], ["2020-07-26", 0.309], ["2020-07-26", 0.311], ["2020-07-26", 0.311], ["2020-07-26", 0.31], ["2020-07-28", 0.311], ["2020-07-30", 0.31], ["2020-07-30", 0.309], ["2020-07-31", 0.309], ["2020-07-31", 0.307], ["2020-07-31", 0.307], ["2020-07-31", 0.307], ["2020-07-31", 0.308], ["2020-07-31", 0.306], ["2020-07-31", 0.306]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4313/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | California is well-know to be very geologically active, and has in the past experienced major earthquakes: 15 recorded since the mid-19th century above magnitude 7.0. Even a 6.0 earthquake can cause significant damage, and there are 47 listed in the same source.
The USGS maintains a comprehensive searchable data store of past earthquakes around the world. Occurrence of specific earthquakes is notoriously difficult. However, their statistics are fairly well-characterized over long timescales: a reasonable prediction can be obtained by simply dividing taking the number of 6.0 or greater earthquakes that have occurred in the last N years and dividing by N. (For example, the Wikipedia list has 39 since 1900.)
Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?
This question resolves according to credible earthquaketrack.com. An earthquake with an epicenter fewer than 20km from the shore count towards positive resolution. | true | 2020-07-31 | Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-07-08 | 2020-05-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-06", 0.75], ["2020-05-06", 0.75], ["2020-05-06", 0.517], ["2020-05-06", 0.538], ["2020-05-06", 0.56], ["2020-05-06", 0.567], ["2020-05-06", 0.567], ["2020-05-06", 0.528], ["2020-05-06", 0.558], ["2020-05-06", 0.558], ["2020-05-07", 0.577], ["2020-05-07", 0.59], ["2020-05-07", 0.593], ["2020-05-07", 0.596], ["2020-05-07", 0.596], ["2020-05-07", 0.607], ["2020-05-07", 0.598], ["2020-05-07", 0.585], ["2020-05-08", 0.58], ["2020-05-08", 0.587], ["2020-05-10", 0.587], ["2020-05-10", 0.6], ["2020-05-10", 0.6], ["2020-05-12", 0.609], ["2020-05-12", 0.606], ["2020-05-12", 0.606], ["2020-05-12", 0.61], ["2020-05-13", 0.61], ["2020-05-13", 0.618], ["2020-05-15", 0.615], ["2020-05-17", 0.63], ["2020-05-17", 0.633], ["2020-05-17", 0.633], ["2020-05-18", 0.639], ["2020-05-19", 0.635], ["2020-05-19", 0.635], ["2020-05-21", 0.639], ["2020-05-21", 0.644], ["2020-05-22", 0.645], ["2020-05-22", 0.645], ["2020-05-22", 0.647], ["2020-05-24", 0.649], ["2020-05-25", 0.65], ["2020-05-27", 0.656], ["2020-05-27", 0.656], ["2020-05-28", 0.657], ["2020-05-31", 0.662], ["2020-06-01", 0.66], ["2020-06-01", 0.661], ["2020-06-01", 0.667], ["2020-06-01", 0.671], ["2020-06-05", 0.67], ["2020-06-07", 0.67], ["2020-06-08", 0.671], ["2020-06-09", 0.673], ["2020-06-09", 0.673], ["2020-06-10", 0.673], ["2020-06-12", 0.677], ["2020-06-12", 0.676], ["2020-06-12", 0.676], ["2020-06-12", 0.673], ["2020-06-12", 0.674], ["2020-06-12", 0.674], ["2020-06-14", 0.68], ["2020-06-16", 0.683], ["2020-06-16", 0.683], ["2020-06-16", 0.685], ["2020-06-18", 0.686], ["2020-06-23", 0.689], ["2020-06-29", 0.692], ["2020-07-03", 0.693]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4318/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2020 is scheduled to be held in London, UK from to 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020.
Will EA Global: London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?
The question resolves negative if the EA Global London 2020 takes place on the originally scheduled physical location at the scheduled dates. If the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or the venue is moved away from London (including moved to an online virtual conference), and a stated reason for the change is COVID-19 (as judged by Metaculus), it resolves positive.
Note: See the related previous prediction for EA Global San Francisco | true | 2020-09-01 | Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-05-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-09", 0.8], ["2020-05-10", 0.882], ["2020-05-11", 0.875], ["2020-05-13", 0.868], ["2020-05-14", 0.873], ["2020-05-15", 0.883], ["2020-05-16", 0.886], ["2020-05-17", 0.885], ["2020-05-17", 0.89], ["2020-05-18", 0.891], ["2020-05-19", 0.891], ["2020-05-20", 0.894], ["2020-05-20", 0.895], ["2020-05-21", 0.897], ["2020-05-22", 0.896], ["2020-05-23", 0.899], ["2020-05-25", 0.9], ["2020-05-31", 0.901], ["2020-05-31", 0.901], ["2020-06-01", 0.902], ["2020-06-02", 0.902], ["2020-06-03", 0.902], ["2020-06-04", 0.907], ["2020-06-06", 0.908], ["2020-06-06", 0.909], ["2020-06-07", 0.914], ["2020-06-08", 0.911], ["2020-06-09", 0.911], ["2020-06-11", 0.912], ["2020-06-12", 0.907], ["2020-06-14", 0.907], ["2020-06-15", 0.906], ["2020-06-17", 0.907], ["2020-06-19", 0.907], ["2020-06-19", 0.906], ["2020-06-24", 0.906], ["2020-06-24", 0.906], ["2020-06-26", 0.907], ["2020-06-27", 0.906], ["2020-06-28", 0.907], ["2020-06-29", 0.908], ["2020-06-30", 0.909], ["2020-07-02", 0.909], ["2020-07-03", 0.91], ["2020-07-04", 0.91], ["2020-07-05", 0.911], ["2020-07-06", 0.911], ["2020-07-08", 0.911], ["2020-07-08", 0.91], ["2020-07-10", 0.91], ["2020-07-11", 0.91], ["2020-07-14", 0.909], ["2020-07-17", 0.91], ["2020-07-17", 0.91], ["2020-07-19", 0.91], ["2020-07-20", 0.911], ["2020-07-22", 0.911], ["2020-07-25", 0.911], ["2020-07-25", 0.911], ["2020-07-31", 0.912], ["2020-08-01", 0.913], ["2020-08-02", 0.914], ["2020-08-04", 0.915], ["2020-08-05", 0.915], ["2020-08-06", 0.916], ["2020-08-09", 0.916], ["2020-08-10", 0.917], ["2020-08-11", 0.918], ["2020-08-12", 0.916], ["2020-08-13", 0.917], ["2020-08-14", 0.917], ["2020-08-16", 0.917], ["2020-08-16", 0.917], ["2020-08-18", 0.92], ["2020-08-19", 0.92], ["2020-08-20", 0.92], ["2020-08-21", 0.921], ["2020-08-22", 0.921], ["2020-08-23", 0.921], ["2020-08-26", 0.922], ["2020-08-27", 0.922], ["2020-08-29", 0.923], ["2020-08-29", 0.923], ["2020-08-30", 0.923], ["2020-09-01", 0.924], ["2020-09-01", 0.924], ["2020-09-02", 0.924], ["2020-09-04", 0.925], ["2020-09-04", 0.924], ["2020-09-06", 0.924], ["2020-09-07", 0.925], ["2020-09-08", 0.926], ["2020-09-09", 0.926], ["2020-09-11", 0.927], ["2020-09-12", 0.928], ["2020-09-13", 0.928], ["2020-09-14", 0.928], ["2020-09-15", 0.93], ["2020-09-16", 0.93], ["2020-09-18", 0.932], ["2020-09-19", 0.942]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4354/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who served as the 47th vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017 and represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president in the 2020 election.
The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
Due to Biden's advanced age and allegations about his behaviour, there has been speculation that Biden may not be the Democratic nominee by the time of the election.
This question asks: At 00:00 UTC on November 3 2020, will Joe Biden be the official nominee of the Democratic Party for the office of president of the United States? | true | 2020-09-19 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-07-01 | 2020-05-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-21", 0.01], ["2020-05-22", 0.21], ["2020-05-22", 0.076], ["2020-05-22", 0.076], ["2020-05-22", 0.093], ["2020-05-23", 0.087], ["2020-05-23", 0.087], ["2020-05-23", 0.082], ["2020-05-23", 0.077], ["2020-05-23", 0.077], ["2020-05-23", 0.075], ["2020-05-24", 0.08], ["2020-05-24", 0.078], ["2020-05-24", 0.075], ["2020-05-25", 0.074], ["2020-05-26", 0.073], ["2020-05-26", 0.073], ["2020-05-27", 0.071], ["2020-05-27", 0.068], ["2020-05-29", 0.069], ["2020-05-29", 0.069], ["2020-05-29", 0.066], ["2020-05-30", 0.066], ["2020-05-31", 0.065], ["2020-06-01", 0.065], ["2020-06-01", 0.071], ["2020-06-01", 0.07], ["2020-06-02", 0.075], ["2020-06-03", 0.075], ["2020-06-03", 0.075], ["2020-06-04", 0.077], ["2020-06-04", 0.076], ["2020-06-04", 0.076], ["2020-06-06", 0.076], ["2020-06-06", 0.076], ["2020-06-06", 0.076], ["2020-06-06", 0.074], ["2020-06-06", 0.073], ["2020-06-07", 0.073], ["2020-06-07", 0.072], ["2020-06-08", 0.071], ["2020-06-08", 0.072], ["2020-06-08", 0.071], ["2020-06-08", 0.071], ["2020-06-09", 0.07], ["2020-06-09", 0.073], ["2020-06-09", 0.072], ["2020-06-10", 0.071], ["2020-06-11", 0.071], ["2020-06-11", 0.069], ["2020-06-12", 0.069], ["2020-06-12", 0.068], ["2020-06-12", 0.066], ["2020-06-13", 0.082], ["2020-06-13", 0.083], ["2020-06-14", 0.082], ["2020-06-14", 0.082], ["2020-06-14", 0.081], ["2020-06-15", 0.08], ["2020-06-15", 0.079], ["2020-06-15", 0.079], ["2020-06-16", 0.079], ["2020-06-16", 0.078], ["2020-06-16", 0.077], ["2020-06-18", 0.077], ["2020-06-18", 0.073], ["2020-06-19", 0.073], ["2020-06-19", 0.073], ["2020-06-19", 0.073], ["2020-06-19", 0.079], ["2020-06-19", 0.079], ["2020-06-20", 0.079], ["2020-06-20", 0.079], ["2020-06-21", 0.078], ["2020-06-22", 0.078], ["2020-06-24", 0.077], ["2020-06-24", 0.077], ["2020-06-25", 0.076], ["2020-06-25", 0.076], ["2020-06-25", 0.075], ["2020-06-26", 0.074], ["2020-06-26", 0.075], ["2020-06-26", 0.069], ["2020-06-27", 0.067], ["2020-06-27", 0.065], ["2020-06-27", 0.064], ["2020-06-27", 0.063], ["2020-06-27", 0.063], ["2020-06-28", 0.063], ["2020-06-28", 0.062], ["2020-06-28", 0.062], ["2020-06-28", 0.062], ["2020-06-29", 0.062], ["2020-06-29", 0.061], ["2020-06-29", 0.059], ["2020-06-30", 0.059], ["2020-06-30", 0.051], ["2020-06-30", 0.048], ["2020-06-30", 0.046], ["2020-07-01", 0.045], ["2020-07-01", 0.045]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4403/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?
The announcement must be public as defined by a published press release by AMZN in the AMZN public Press Center site
Any offer price, or offer consideration (cash, stock, or blend) is consistent with positive resolution | true | 2020-07-01 | Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Apple is rumored to release an ARM-based Mac soon:
Apple is said to be aiming to transition to its own ARM-based chips starting in 2020. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple will release MacBook models with its own custom processors in the fourth quarter of 2020 or the first quarter of 2021.
The last time Apple made a processor switch, it was announced at their Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) the year before:
The transition became public knowledge at the 2005 Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), when Apple's CEO Steve Jobs made the announcement … The first generation Intel-based Macintoshes were released in January 2006 …
This year’s WWDC is from June 22-26.
This questions resolves positively if Apple announces plans to make ARM-based Macs at WWDC 2020. They don’t have to announce a specific Mac — plans are sufficient. | true | 2020-06-20 | Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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The questions will resolve true, if by 2021-05-17, there is no evidence the baby has another legal name than X Æ A - 12.
The question resolves false, if by 2021-05-17 either parent reveals the name to not be real, or journalists uncover birth certificates or comparable evidence indicating the baby's real name to be different.
Figuring out the probability of this is of utmost importance.
Notes:
For purposes of these questions, a spelled version, e.g. "X Æ A-Xii" or "ex ash ae twelve" will count as "X Æ A - 12".
In case of confusion, the name on the birth certificate will be the determining document.
Edited 2020-05-21 to add above notes.
Edited 2020-05-25 to add that the question resolves positively if the baby's name is "X Æ A-Xii". | true | 2020-09-25 | Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name? | metaculus | 1 |
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Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated travel bans and economic turmoil, the commercial aviation industry has suffered severe disruption. As a result, there is speculation that American Airlines may seek bankruptcy protection in the near future.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2021, will American Airlines, or any parent company thereof, file for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States?
Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. | true | 2020-12-01 | Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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In a speech last month, Israeli PM Netanyahu said he was confident he would be able to annex West Bank land this summer, with support from the U.S.
This question resolves positive if the Annexation of the Jordan Valley is approved by the Israeli parliament before the end of 2020.
Proposed Annexation of the Jordan Valley
A Look at the West Bank Area Netanyahu Vowed to Annex
Analysis Annexation Could Kill Jordan Peace Deal, Israeli Defense Officials Believe
Set for new term, Israel’s Netanyahu eyes risky West Bank annexation
Jordan warns Israel of 'massive conflict' over annexation | true | 2020-11-30 | Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Washington Post: Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades
The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.
The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.
A senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.
The meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.
The National Security Council declined to comment.
This question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?
This question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place.
There is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution. | true | 2022-01-01 | Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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The Housing Committee's summary of the bill is
This bill permits a local government to pass an ordinance to zone any parcel up to 10 units of residential density per parcel, at a height specified by the local government in the ordinance, if the parcel is located in a transit-rich area, a jobs-rich area, or an urban infill site, as specified.
SB 902 is supported by sponsor California YIMBY and co-sponsor Habitat for Humanity California.
Will SB 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?
A definition of "chaptered" (source):
A bill is said to become chaptered if it is approved by the legislature and signed by the Governor. Bills that become law are published as chapters of the Session Laws for that year. For example, California statutes are the chaptered bills. A bill is "chaptered" by the Secretary of State after it has passed through both houses of the Legislature and has been signed by the Governor or becomes law without the Governor's signature. | true | 2020-08-14 | Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-06-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-01", 0.9], ["2020-06-01", 0.636], ["2020-06-02", 0.623], ["2020-06-03", 0.637], ["2020-06-04", 0.624], ["2020-06-04", 0.621], ["2020-06-05", 0.622], ["2020-06-06", 0.606], ["2020-06-06", 0.598], ["2020-06-07", 0.58], ["2020-06-08", 0.534], ["2020-06-09", 0.527], ["2020-06-10", 0.526], ["2020-06-11", 0.523], ["2020-06-12", 0.505], ["2020-06-13", 0.495], ["2020-06-13", 0.477], ["2020-06-14", 0.473], ["2020-06-16", 0.473], ["2020-06-16", 0.468], ["2020-06-17", 0.469], ["2020-06-18", 0.467], ["2020-06-18", 0.466], ["2020-06-19", 0.463], ["2020-06-20", 0.463], ["2020-06-21", 0.46], ["2020-06-21", 0.459], ["2020-06-22", 0.446], ["2020-06-22", 0.446], ["2020-06-23", 0.444], ["2020-06-25", 0.444], ["2020-06-26", 0.444], ["2020-06-27", 0.443], ["2020-06-27", 0.443], ["2020-06-28", 0.438], ["2020-06-29", 0.435], ["2020-06-30", 0.435], ["2020-06-30", 0.437], ["2020-07-02", 0.437], ["2020-07-03", 0.437], ["2020-07-03", 0.436], ["2020-07-04", 0.435], ["2020-07-05", 0.432], ["2020-07-07", 0.432], ["2020-07-07", 0.429], ["2020-07-08", 0.429], ["2020-07-09", 0.427], ["2020-07-10", 0.425], ["2020-07-11", 0.422], ["2020-07-13", 0.418], ["2020-07-14", 0.417], ["2020-07-14", 0.417], ["2020-07-15", 0.413], ["2020-07-16", 0.411], ["2020-07-17", 0.41], ["2020-07-18", 0.408], ["2020-07-19", 0.406], ["2020-07-20", 0.406], ["2020-07-22", 0.406], ["2020-07-22", 0.405], ["2020-07-24", 0.405], ["2020-07-25", 0.402], ["2020-07-26", 0.402], ["2020-07-27", 0.402], ["2020-07-28", 0.4], ["2020-07-29", 0.4], ["2020-07-30", 0.401], ["2020-08-01", 0.398], ["2020-08-01", 0.397], ["2020-08-03", 0.397], ["2020-08-04", 0.396], ["2020-08-05", 0.396], ["2020-08-06", 0.395], ["2020-08-07", 0.393], ["2020-08-08", 0.39], ["2020-08-09", 0.387], ["2020-08-10", 0.384], ["2020-08-11", 0.387], ["2020-08-12", 0.386], ["2020-08-13", 0.385], ["2020-08-13", 0.384], ["2020-08-14", 0.381], ["2020-08-15", 0.381], ["2020-08-16", 0.381], ["2020-08-18", 0.379], ["2020-08-19", 0.378], ["2020-08-19", 0.375], ["2020-08-20", 0.373], ["2020-08-21", 0.372], ["2020-08-21", 0.372], ["2020-08-22", 0.37], ["2020-08-23", 0.37], ["2020-08-24", 0.356], ["2020-08-25", 0.348], ["2020-08-26", 0.347], ["2020-08-27", 0.351], ["2020-08-28", 0.35], ["2020-08-28", 0.35], ["2020-08-29", 0.348], ["2020-08-30", 0.345], ["2020-08-30", 0.345]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4536/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.
As of 31 May 2020, major US cities have seen civil unrest after the 25 May death of George Floyd in a police encounter. The George Floyd protests are ongoing and some have involved violence. Moreover, much of the US is still under stay-at-home orders related to COVID-19 and unemployment is at record highs.
This question asks: Will the United States experience widespread rioting in 2020?
For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:
At least 150 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
At least 30,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
Property damages are credibly estimated at $3 billion or more. This estimate may come from local governments in which the incidents take place, state governments, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.
Such events should take place in the US (for the purposes of this question, inclusive of all 50 U.S. states and Washington D.C.) and should occur within a 14 day period.
Resolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting. | true | 2020-08-30 | Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-27 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-06", 0.375], ["2020-06-06", 0.428], ["2020-06-06", 0.44], ["2020-06-06", 0.441], ["2020-06-06", 0.47], ["2020-06-06", 0.468], ["2020-06-06", 0.468], ["2020-06-06", 0.48], ["2020-06-07", 0.48], ["2020-06-07", 0.496], ["2020-06-07", 0.509], ["2020-06-07", 0.496], ["2020-06-07", 0.503], ["2020-06-07", 0.499], ["2020-06-07", 0.502], ["2020-06-07", 0.521], ["2020-06-08", 0.521], ["2020-06-08", 0.518], ["2020-06-08", 0.518], ["2020-06-08", 0.526], ["2020-06-08", 0.526], ["2020-06-08", 0.533], ["2020-06-08", 0.539], ["2020-06-08", 0.54], ["2020-06-09", 0.544], ["2020-06-09", 0.54], ["2020-06-09", 0.529], ["2020-06-09", 0.528], ["2020-06-09", 0.536], ["2020-06-09", 0.533], ["2020-06-09", 0.531], ["2020-06-10", 0.532], ["2020-06-10", 0.532], ["2020-06-10", 0.535], ["2020-06-10", 0.537], ["2020-06-11", 0.539], ["2020-06-11", 0.54], ["2020-06-11", 0.54], ["2020-06-11", 0.544], ["2020-06-11", 0.544], ["2020-06-11", 0.544], ["2020-06-12", 0.541], ["2020-06-12", 0.541], ["2020-06-12", 0.542], ["2020-06-12", 0.542], ["2020-06-12", 0.545], ["2020-06-12", 0.546], ["2020-06-12", 0.545], ["2020-06-13", 0.555], ["2020-06-13", 0.555], ["2020-06-13", 0.555], ["2020-06-13", 0.555], ["2020-06-13", 0.559], ["2020-06-14", 0.559], ["2020-06-14", 0.556], ["2020-06-14", 0.555], ["2020-06-14", 0.555], ["2020-06-15", 0.555], ["2020-06-15", 0.553], ["2020-06-17", 0.554], ["2020-06-17", 0.55], ["2020-06-17", 0.553], ["2020-06-17", 0.553], ["2020-06-18", 0.548], ["2020-06-28", 0.547], ["2020-07-02", 0.543], ["2020-07-07", 0.543], ["2020-07-11", 0.544], ["2020-07-14", 0.543], ["2020-07-14", 0.542], ["2020-07-14", 0.542], ["2020-07-15", 0.541], ["2020-07-28", 0.541], ["2020-07-29", 0.542], ["2020-07-31", 0.542], ["2020-08-12", 0.538], ["2020-08-12", 0.539], ["2020-08-13", 0.54], ["2020-08-17", 0.535], ["2020-08-18", 0.535], ["2020-08-18", 0.535], ["2020-08-19", 0.534], ["2020-08-24", 0.535], ["2020-08-29", 0.535], ["2020-08-30", 0.535], ["2020-09-01", 0.536], ["2020-09-02", 0.537], ["2020-09-04", 0.537], ["2020-09-04", 0.537], ["2020-09-04", 0.537], ["2020-09-04", 0.538], ["2020-09-07", 0.536], ["2020-09-10", 0.536], ["2020-09-11", 0.535], ["2020-09-11", 0.536], ["2020-09-12", 0.535], ["2020-09-13", 0.534], ["2020-09-13", 0.535], ["2020-09-14", 0.535], ["2020-09-14", 0.534], ["2020-09-14", 0.534]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4554/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) is a mathematics competition for pre-university students. It consists of six questions, each scored out of seven. The highest possible score is therefore 42. The problems are extremely difficult, and mean scores are typically less than 15 marks. It is not uncommon for no students to score full marks, or for only one student to do so, though in 1987 twenty-two perfect scores were achieved, meaning that a perfect score was required for a gold medal. In 2020, the 61st IMO is scheduled to be held from July 8 to July 18 in St Petersburg, Russia.
This question asks: Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?
For a positive resolution, at the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg, more than one entrant must achieve a score of 42. Resolution will be via credible media reports.
If the 2020 IMO is postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic, this question will resolve after the postponed competition is held.
If the competition format is changed because of the pandemic (for example, by going online) but the question format is not changed, i.e. 6 questions worth 7 marks each are asked, the question resolves as above.
If the 2020 IMO is cancelled, or if the format of the questions is changed, resolution will be ambiguous.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-09-14 | Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-16 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.99], ["2020-06-05", 0.73], ["2020-06-05", 0.68], ["2020-06-05", 0.682], ["2020-06-05", 0.677], ["2020-06-05", 0.677], ["2020-06-05", 0.671], ["2020-06-05", 0.668], ["2020-06-05", 0.665], ["2020-06-06", 0.674], ["2020-06-06", 0.666], ["2020-06-06", 0.666], ["2020-06-06", 0.664], ["2020-06-06", 0.664], ["2020-06-06", 0.663], ["2020-06-07", 0.651], ["2020-06-07", 0.651], ["2020-06-07", 0.65], ["2020-06-08", 0.65], ["2020-06-08", 0.65], ["2020-06-08", 0.648], ["2020-06-08", 0.645], ["2020-06-08", 0.645], ["2020-06-08", 0.642], ["2020-06-08", 0.643], ["2020-06-09", 0.645], ["2020-06-09", 0.645], ["2020-06-09", 0.643], ["2020-06-09", 0.643], ["2020-06-10", 0.649], ["2020-06-10", 0.649], ["2020-06-10", 0.645], ["2020-06-10", 0.645], ["2020-06-10", 0.647], ["2020-06-11", 0.646], ["2020-06-11", 0.646], ["2020-06-11", 0.646], ["2020-06-11", 0.646], ["2020-06-12", 0.649], ["2020-06-12", 0.649], ["2020-06-12", 0.649], ["2020-06-12", 0.649], ["2020-06-13", 0.64], ["2020-06-14", 0.64], ["2020-06-16", 0.64], ["2020-06-17", 0.64], ["2020-06-17", 0.643], ["2020-06-19", 0.642], ["2020-06-20", 0.641], ["2020-06-23", 0.641], ["2020-06-23", 0.642], ["2020-06-23", 0.643], ["2020-06-24", 0.645], ["2020-06-26", 0.646], ["2020-06-26", 0.645], ["2020-06-27", 0.645], ["2020-06-28", 0.646], ["2020-06-28", 0.645], ["2020-06-28", 0.646], ["2020-06-30", 0.642], ["2020-06-30", 0.642], ["2020-06-30", 0.637], ["2020-07-01", 0.637], ["2020-07-01", 0.637], ["2020-07-01", 0.638], ["2020-07-02", 0.64], ["2020-07-03", 0.64], ["2020-07-03", 0.641], ["2020-07-03", 0.642], ["2020-07-05", 0.642], ["2020-07-05", 0.642], ["2020-07-05", 0.641], ["2020-07-06", 0.639], ["2020-07-07", 0.639], ["2020-07-07", 0.638], ["2020-07-07", 0.634], ["2020-07-07", 0.632], ["2020-07-07", 0.632], ["2020-07-08", 0.631], ["2020-07-08", 0.635], ["2020-07-08", 0.632], ["2020-07-08", 0.632], ["2020-07-09", 0.629], ["2020-07-09", 0.63], ["2020-07-09", 0.627], ["2020-07-09", 0.624], ["2020-07-10", 0.624], ["2020-07-10", 0.624], ["2020-07-11", 0.623], ["2020-07-12", 0.623], ["2020-07-12", 0.622], ["2020-07-12", 0.62], ["2020-07-13", 0.601], ["2020-07-13", 0.595], ["2020-07-13", 0.573], ["2020-07-13", 0.552], ["2020-07-13", 0.529], ["2020-07-13", 0.516], ["2020-07-13", 0.509], ["2020-07-13", 0.497], ["2020-07-13", 0.497]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4555/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Politifact is an independent fact-checking organisation which focuses primarily, but not entirely, on US politics. Claims are assigned a rating on the “Truth-o-meter” ranging from “True” to “Pants on Fire”. For a statement to qualify as “Pants on Fire”, it should both not be accurate and make what politifact considers to be “a ridiculous claim”.
This question asks whether, in the month of July, the number of claims made by Donald Trump and rated by politifact as “Pants on Fire” will be equal to, or greater than, five plus the number of claims made by Joe Biden and rated by politifact as “Pants on fire” over the same period.
Question resolves positive if, on the date of resolution, , where is the number of “Pants on Fire” ratings given by politifact to Donald Trump for claims he made in July, and is the number of “Pants on Fire” ratings given to Biden for claims he made in July.
If politifact ceases to operate or changes the labelling on it’s “truth-o-meter”, this question resolves ambiguous, otherwise this question resolves negative.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
ETA (2020-06-05) in the case that the question does not resolve positively by July 31, resolution can be delayed by two weeks to see how statements made in late July will be rated. | true | 2020-07-13 | Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question asks: Will the first video in a new series on 3Blue1Brown be released in July 2020?
Positive resolution occurs if the first video in a playlist containing at least two videos at the time of resolution, which appears on the playlists tab of the 3blue1brown youtube page, is published at any time in July 2020.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. | true | 2020-07-06 | Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July? | metaculus | 0 |
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