Daily Papers

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

The impact of soiling on solar panels is an important and well-studied problem in renewable energy sector. In this paper, we present the first convolutional neural network (CNN) based approach for solar panel soiling and defect analysis. Our approach takes an RGB image of solar panel and environmental factors as inputs to predict power loss, soiling localization, and soiling type. In computer vision, localization is a complex task which typically requires manually labeled training data such as bounding boxes or segmentation masks. Our proposed approach consists of specialized four stages which completely avoids localization ground truth and only needs panel images with power loss labels for training. The region of impact area obtained from the predicted localization masks are classified into soiling types using the webly supervised learning. For improving localization capabilities of CNNs, we introduce a novel bi-directional input-aware fusion (BiDIAF) block that reinforces the input at different levels of CNN to learn input-specific feature maps. Our empirical study shows that BiDIAF improves the power loss prediction accuracy by about 3% and localization accuracy by about 4%. Our end-to-end model yields further improvement of about 24% on localization when learned in a weakly supervised manner. Our approach is generalizable and showed promising results on web crawled solar panel images. Our system has a frame rate of 22 fps (including all steps) on a NVIDIA TitanX GPU. Additionally, we collected first of it's kind dataset for solar panel image analysis consisting 45,000+ images.

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

The learning rate (LR) schedule is one of the most important hyper-parameters needing careful tuning in training DNNs. However, it is also one of the least automated parts of machine learning systems and usually costs significant manual effort and computing. Though there are pre-defined LR schedules and optimizers with adaptive LR, they introduce new hyperparameters that need to be tuned separately for different tasks/datasets. In this paper, we consider the question: Can we automatically tune the LR over the course of training without human involvement? We propose an efficient method, AutoLRS, which automatically optimizes the LR for each training stage by modeling training dynamics. AutoLRS aims to find an LR applied to every tau steps that minimizes the resulted validation loss. We solve this black-box optimization on the fly by Bayesian optimization (BO). However, collecting training instances for BO requires a system to evaluate each LR queried by BO's acquisition function for tau steps, which is prohibitively expensive in practice. Instead, we apply each candidate LR for only tau'lltau steps and train an exponential model to predict the validation loss after tau steps. This mutual-training process between BO and the loss-prediction model allows us to limit the training steps invested in the BO search. We demonstrate the advantages and the generality of AutoLRS through extensive experiments of training DNNs for tasks from diverse domains using different optimizers. The LR schedules auto-generated by AutoLRS lead to a speedup of 1.22times, 1.43times, and 1.5times when training ResNet-50, Transformer, and BERT, respectively, compared to the LR schedules in their original papers, and an average speedup of 1.31times over state-of-the-art heavily-tuned LR schedules.

It is well-known that a diverse corpus is critical for training large language models, which are typically constructed from a mixture of various domains. In general, previous efforts resort to sampling training data from different domains with static proportions, as well as adjusting data proportions during training. However, few methods have addressed the complexities of domain-adaptive continual pre-training. To fill this gap, we propose Velocitune, a novel framework dynamically assesses learning velocity and adjusts data proportions accordingly, favoring slower-learning domains while shunning faster-learning ones, which is guided by a scaling law to indicate the desired learning goal for each domain with less associated cost. To evaluate the effectiveness of Velocitune, we conduct experiments in a reasoning-focused dataset with CodeLlama, as well as in a corpus specialised for system command generation with Llama3 and Mistral. Velocitune achieves performance gains in both math and code reasoning tasks and command-line generation benchmarks. Further analysis reveals that key factors driving Velocitune's effectiveness include target loss prediction and data ordering.

Masked visual modeling has attracted much attention due to its promising potential in learning generalizable representations. Typical approaches urge models to predict specific contents of masked tokens, which can be intuitively considered as teaching a student (the model) to solve given problems (predicting masked contents). Under such settings, the performance is highly correlated with mask strategies (the difficulty of provided problems). We argue that it is equally important for the model to stand in the shoes of a teacher to produce challenging problems by itself. Intuitively, patches with high values of reconstruction loss can be regarded as hard samples, and masking those hard patches naturally becomes a demanding reconstruction task. To empower the model as a teacher, we propose Hard Patches Mining (HPM), predicting patch-wise losses and subsequently determining where to mask. Technically, we introduce an auxiliary loss predictor, which is trained with a relative objective to prevent overfitting to exact loss values. Also, to gradually guide the training procedure, we propose an easy-to-hard mask strategy. Empirically, HPM brings significant improvements under both image and video benchmarks. Interestingly, solely incorporating the extra loss prediction objective leads to better representations, verifying the efficacy of determining where is hard to reconstruct. The code is available at https://github.com/Haochen-Wang409/HPM.

Masked image modeling (MIM) has attracted much research attention due to its promising potential for learning scalable visual representations. In typical approaches, models usually focus on predicting specific contents of masked patches, and their performances are highly related to pre-defined mask strategies. Intuitively, this procedure can be considered as training a student (the model) on solving given problems (predict masked patches). However, we argue that the model should not only focus on solving given problems, but also stand in the shoes of a teacher to produce a more challenging problem by itself. To this end, we propose Hard Patches Mining (HPM), a brand-new framework for MIM pre-training. We observe that the reconstruction loss can naturally be the metric of the difficulty of the pre-training task. Therefore, we introduce an auxiliary loss predictor, predicting patch-wise losses first and deciding where to mask next. It adopts a relative relationship learning strategy to prevent overfitting to exact reconstruction loss values. Experiments under various settings demonstrate the effectiveness of HPM in constructing masked images. Furthermore, we empirically find that solely introducing the loss prediction objective leads to powerful representations, verifying the efficacy of the ability to be aware of where is hard to reconstruct.

We find that the cross-entropy loss curves of neural language models empirically adhere to a scaling law with learning rate (LR) annealing over training steps (s): $L(s) = L_0 + Acdot S_1^{-alpha} - Ccdot S_2 Where S_1 is forward area and S_2$ is learning rate annealing area. This formulation takes into account two factors: (1) The forward scaling defined as typical scaling law, and (2) the additional loss drop brought by LR annealing. Therefore, this formulation can describe the full loss curve at each step, rather than the single loss point at the end of training. Applying the scaling law with LR annealing and fitting only one or two training curves, we can accurately predict the loss of language model training at any given step and across any learning rate scheduler (LRS). Furthermore, this equation accurately describes the dynamics during training process, and provides a theoretical verification and explanation for numerous experimental findings of previous studies, particularly those focusing on LR schedule and LR annealing. The resulting insights, also serve as a guide for researchers to select critical LRS in advance by prediction using our equation. Most significantly, since all the points in a full training curve follow the equation, we can achieve accurate loss prediction at any given step across any learning rate scheduler, while expending less than 1\% of the computational cost required by the chinchilla scaling law to fit language modeling loss. This approach extremely democratizes scaling law fitting and predicting in developing large language models.

Self-supervised approaches for speech representation learning are challenged by three unique problems: (1) there are multiple sound units in each input utterance, (2) there is no lexicon of input sound units during the pre-training phase, and (3) sound units have variable lengths with no explicit segmentation. To deal with these three problems, we propose the Hidden-Unit BERT (HuBERT) approach for self-supervised speech representation learning, which utilizes an offline clustering step to provide aligned target labels for a BERT-like prediction loss. A key ingredient of our approach is applying the prediction loss over the masked regions only, which forces the model to learn a combined acoustic and language model over the continuous inputs. HuBERT relies primarily on the consistency of the unsupervised clustering step rather than the intrinsic quality of the assigned cluster labels. Starting with a simple k-means teacher of 100 clusters, and using two iterations of clustering, the HuBERT model either matches or improves upon the state-of-the-art wav2vec 2.0 performance on the Librispeech (960h) and Libri-light (60,000h) benchmarks with 10min, 1h, 10h, 100h, and 960h fine-tuning subsets. Using a 1B parameter model, HuBERT shows up to 19% and 13% relative WER reduction on the more challenging dev-other and test-other evaluation subsets.

We propose a game-based formulation for learning dimensionality-reducing representations of feature vectors, when only a prior knowledge on future prediction tasks is available. In this game, the first player chooses a representation, and then the second player adversarially chooses a prediction task from a given class, representing the prior knowledge. The first player aims is to minimize, and the second player to maximize, the regret: The minimal prediction loss using the representation, compared to the same loss using the original features. For the canonical setting in which the representation, the response to predict and the predictors are all linear functions, and under the mean squared error loss function, we derive the theoretically optimal representation in pure strategies, which shows the effectiveness of the prior knowledge, and the optimal regret in mixed strategies, which shows the usefulness of randomizing the representation. For general representations and loss functions, we propose an efficient algorithm to optimize a randomized representation. The algorithm only requires the gradients of the loss function, and is based on incrementally adding a representation rule to a mixture of such rules.

This paper proposes a generative speech enhancement model based on Schr\"odinger bridge (SB). The proposed model is employing a tractable SB to formulate a data-to-data process between the clean speech distribution and the observed noisy speech distribution. The model is trained with a data prediction loss, aiming to recover the complex-valued clean speech coefficients, and an auxiliary time-domain loss is used to improve training of the model. The effectiveness of the proposed SB-based model is evaluated in two different speech enhancement tasks: speech denoising and speech dereverberation. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed SB-based outperforms diffusion-based models in terms of speech quality metrics and ASR performance, e.g., resulting in relative word error rate reduction of 20% for denoising and 6% for dereverberation compared to the best baseline model. The proposed model also demonstrates improved efficiency, achieving better quality than the baselines for the same number of sampling steps and with a reduced computational cost.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at few-shot in-context learning (ICL) -- learning from a few examples provided in context at inference, without any weight updates. Newly expanded context windows allow us to investigate ICL with hundreds or thousands of examples -- the many-shot regime. Going from few-shot to many-shot, we observe significant performance gains across a wide variety of generative and discriminative tasks. While promising, many-shot ICL can be bottlenecked by the available amount of human-generated examples. To mitigate this limitation, we explore two new settings: Reinforced and Unsupervised ICL. Reinforced ICL uses model-generated chain-of-thought rationales in place of human examples. Unsupervised ICL removes rationales from the prompt altogether, and prompts the model only with domain-specific questions. We find that both Reinforced and Unsupervised ICL can be quite effective in the many-shot regime, particularly on complex reasoning tasks. Finally, we demonstrate that, unlike few-shot learning, many-shot learning is effective at overriding pretraining biases and can learn high-dimensional functions with numerical inputs. Our analysis also reveals the limitations of next-token prediction loss as an indicator of downstream ICL performance.

Owing to the capability of in-context learning, large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across diverse mathematical reasoning benchmarks. However, we find that few-shot demonstrations can sometimes bring negative performance and their effectiveness on LLMs' reasoning abilities remains unreliable. To this end, in this paper, we aim to theoretically analyze the impact of in-context demonstrations on LLMs' reasoning performance. We prove that the reasoning efficacy (measured by empirical prediction loss) can be bounded by a LLM-oriented semantic similarity and an inference stability of demonstrations, which is general for both one-shot and few-shot scenarios. Based on this finding, we propose a straightforward, generalizable, and low-complexity demonstration selection method named LMS3. It can adaptively facilitate to select the most pertinent samples for different LLMs and includes a novel demonstration rejection mechanism to automatically filter out samples that are unsuitable for few-shot learning. Through experiments on three representative benchmarks, two LLM backbones, and multiple few-shot settings, we verify that our LMS3 has superiority and achieves consistent improvements on all datasets, which existing methods have been unable to accomplish.

Previous language model pre-training methods have uniformly applied a next-token prediction loss to all training tokens. Challenging this norm, we posit that "Not all tokens in a corpus are equally important for language model training". Our initial analysis delves into token-level training dynamics of language model, revealing distinct loss patterns for different tokens. Leveraging these insights, we introduce a new language model called Rho-1. Unlike traditional LMs that learn to predict every next token in a corpus, Rho-1 employs Selective Language Modeling (SLM), which selectively trains on useful tokens that aligned with the desired distribution. This approach involves scoring pretraining tokens using a reference model, and then training the language model with a focused loss on tokens with higher excess loss. When continual pretraining on 15B OpenWebMath corpus, Rho-1 yields an absolute improvement in few-shot accuracy of up to 30% in 9 math tasks. After fine-tuning, Rho-1-1B and 7B achieved state-of-the-art results of 40.6% and 51.8% on MATH dataset, respectively - matching DeepSeekMath with only 3% of the pretraining tokens. Furthermore, when pretraining on 80B general tokens, Rho-1 achieves 6.8% average enhancement across 15 diverse tasks, increasing both efficiency and performance of the language model pre-training.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

The goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees for generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.

Neural text ranking models have witnessed significant advancement and are increasingly being deployed in practice. Unfortunately, they also inherit adversarial vulnerabilities of general neural models, which have been detected but remain underexplored by prior studies. Moreover, the inherit adversarial vulnerabilities might be leveraged by blackhat SEO to defeat better-protected search engines. In this study, we propose an imitation adversarial attack on black-box neural passage ranking models. We first show that the target passage ranking model can be transparentized and imitated by enumerating critical queries/candidates and then train a ranking imitation model. Leveraging the ranking imitation model, we can elaborately manipulate the ranking results and transfer the manipulation attack to the target ranking model. For this purpose, we propose an innovative gradient-based attack method, empowered by the pairwise objective function, to generate adversarial triggers, which causes premeditated disorderliness with very few tokens. To equip the trigger camouflages, we add the next sentence prediction loss and the language model fluency constraint to the objective function. Experimental results on passage ranking demonstrate the effectiveness of the ranking imitation attack model and adversarial triggers against various SOTA neural ranking models. Furthermore, various mitigation analyses and human evaluation show the effectiveness of camouflages when facing potential mitigation approaches. To motivate other scholars to further investigate this novel and important problem, we make the experiment data and code publicly available.

Modern language models can contain billions of parameters, raising the question of whether they can generalize beyond the training data or simply regurgitate their training corpora. We provide the first non-vacuous generalization bounds for pretrained large language models (LLMs), indicating that language models are capable of discovering regularities that generalize to unseen data. In particular, we derive a compression bound that is valid for the unbounded log-likelihood loss using prediction smoothing, and we extend the bound to handle subsampling, accelerating bound computation on massive datasets. To achieve the extreme level of compression required for non-vacuous generalization bounds, we devise SubLoRA, a low-dimensional non-linear parameterization. Using this approach, we find that larger models have better generalization bounds and are more compressible than smaller models.

Audio Descriptions (ADs) aim to provide a narration of a movie in text form, describing non-dialogue-related narratives, such as characters, actions, or scene establishment. Automatic generation of ADs remains challenging due to: i) the domain gap between movie-AD data and existing data used to train vision-language models, and ii) the issue of contextual redundancy arising from highly similar neighboring visual clips in a long movie. In this work, we propose DistinctAD, a novel two-stage framework for generating ADs that emphasize distinctiveness to produce better narratives. To address the domain gap, we introduce a CLIP-AD adaptation strategy that does not require additional AD corpora, enabling more effective alignment between movie and AD modalities at both global and fine-grained levels. In Stage-II, DistinctAD incorporates two key innovations: (i) a Contextual Expectation-Maximization Attention (EMA) module that reduces redundancy by extracting common bases from consecutive video clips, and (ii) an explicit distinctive word prediction loss that filters out repeated words in the context, ensuring the prediction of unique terms specific to the current AD. Comprehensive evaluations on MAD-Eval, CMD-AD, and TV-AD benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of DistinctAD, with the model consistently outperforming baselines, particularly in Recall@k/N, highlighting its effectiveness in producing high-quality, distinctive ADs.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate extensive capability in learning from documents, LLM unlearning becomes an increasingly important research area to address concerns of LLMs in terms of privacy, copyright, etc. A conventional LLM unlearning task typically involves two goals: (1) The target LLM should forget the knowledge in the specified forget documents, and (2) it should retain the other knowledge that the LLM possesses, for which we assume access to a small number of retain documents. To achieve both goals, a mainstream class of LLM unlearning methods introduces an optimization framework with a combination of two objectives - maximizing the prediction loss on the forget documents while minimizing that on the retain documents, which suffers from two challenges, degenerated output and catastrophic forgetting. In this paper, we propose a novel unlearning framework called Unlearning from Logit Difference (ULD), which introduces an assistant LLM that aims to achieve the opposite of the unlearning goals: remembering the forget documents and forgetting the retain knowledge. ULD then derives the unlearned LLM by computing the logit difference between the target and the assistant LLMs. We show that such reversed objectives would naturally resolve both aforementioned challenges while significantly improving the training efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method efficiently achieves the intended forgetting while preserving the LLM's overall capabilities, reducing training time by more than threefold. Notably, our method loses 0% of model utility on the ToFU benchmark, whereas baseline methods may sacrifice 17% of utility on average to achieve comparable forget quality. Our code will be publicly available at https://github.com/UCSB-NLP-Chang/ULD.

In recent years, self-supervised pre-training methods have gained significant traction in learning high-level information from raw speech. Among these methods, HuBERT has demonstrated SOTA performance in automatic speech recognition (ASR). However, HuBERT's performance lags behind data2vec due to disparities in pre-training strategies. In this paper, we propose (i) a Swap method to address pre-training and inference mismatch observed in HuBERT and (ii) incorporates Multicluster masked prediction loss for more effective utilization of the models capacity. The resulting method is, MS-HuBERT, an end-to-end self-supervised pre-training method for learning robust speech representations. It beats vanilla HuBERT on the ASR Librispeech benchmark on average by a 5% margin when evaluated on different finetuning splits. Additionally, we demonstrate that the learned embeddings obtained during pre-training encode essential information for improving performance of content based tasks such as ASR.

Enterprises and organizations are faced with potential threats from insider employees that may lead to serious consequences. Previous studies on insider threat detection (ITD) mainly focus on detecting abnormal users or abnormal time periods (e.g., a week or a day). However, a user may have hundreds of thousands of activities in the log, and even within a day there may exist thousands of activities for a user, requiring a high investigation budget to verify abnormal users or activities given the detection results. On the other hand, existing works are mainly post-hoc methods rather than real-time detection, which can not report insider threats in time before they cause loss. In this paper, we conduct the first study towards real-time ITD at activity level, and present a fine-grained and efficient framework LAN. Specifically, LAN simultaneously learns the temporal dependencies within an activity sequence and the relationships between activities across sequences with graph structure learning. Moreover, to mitigate the data imbalance problem in ITD, we propose a novel hybrid prediction loss, which integrates self-supervision signals from normal activities and supervision signals from abnormal activities into a unified loss for anomaly detection. We evaluate the performance of LAN on two widely used datasets, i.e., CERT r4.2 and CERT r5.2. Extensive and comparative experiments demonstrate the superiority of LAN, outperforming 9 state-of-the-art baselines by at least 9.92% and 6.35% in AUC for real-time ITD on CERT r4.2 and r5.2, respectively. Moreover, LAN can be also applied to post-hoc ITD, surpassing 8 competitive baselines by at least 7.70% and 4.03% in AUC on two datasets. Finally, the ablation study, parameter analysis, and compatibility analysis evaluate the impact of each module and hyper-parameter in LAN. The source code can be obtained from https://github.com/Li1Neo/LAN.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find a near-optimal policy using pre-collected datasets. In real-world scenarios, data collection could be costly and risky; therefore, offline RL becomes particularly challenging when the in-domain data is limited. Given recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and their few-shot learning prowess, this paper introduces Language Models for Motion Control (LaMo), a general framework based on Decision Transformers to effectively use pre-trained Language Models (LMs) for offline RL. Our framework highlights four crucial components: (1) Initializing Decision Transformers with sequentially pre-trained LMs, (2) employing the LoRA fine-tuning method, in contrast to full-weight fine-tuning, to combine the pre-trained knowledge from LMs and in-domain knowledge effectively, (3) using the non-linear MLP transformation instead of linear projections, to generate embeddings, and (4) integrating an auxiliary language prediction loss during fine-tuning to stabilize the LMs and retain their original abilities on languages. Empirical results indicate LaMo achieves state-of-the-art performance in sparse-reward tasks and closes the gap between value-based offline RL methods and decision transformers in dense-reward tasks. In particular, our method demonstrates superior performance in scenarios with limited data samples. Our project website is https://lamo2023.github.io

The ability of language models to learn a task from a few examples in context has generated substantial interest. Here, we provide a perspective that situates this type of supervised few-shot learning within a much broader spectrum of meta-learned in-context learning. Indeed, we suggest that any distribution of sequences in which context non-trivially decreases loss on subsequent predictions can be interpreted as eliciting a kind of in-context learning. We suggest that this perspective helps to unify the broad set of in-context abilities that language models exhibit x2014 such as adapting to tasks from instructions or role play, or extrapolating time series. This perspective also sheds light on potential roots of in-context learning in lower-level processing of linguistic dependencies (e.g. coreference or parallel structures). Finally, taking this perspective highlights the importance of generalization, which we suggest can be studied along several dimensions: not only the ability to learn something novel, but also flexibility in learning from different presentations, and in applying what is learned. We discuss broader connections to past literature in meta-learning and goal-conditioned agents, and other perspectives on learning and adaptation. We close by suggesting that research on in-context learning should consider this broader spectrum of in-context capabilities and types of generalization.

Large language models (LLMs) are known for their exceptional performance in natural language processing, making them highly effective in many human life-related or even job-related tasks. The attention mechanism in the Transformer architecture is a critical component of LLMs, as it allows the model to selectively focus on specific input parts. The softmax unit, which is a key part of the attention mechanism, normalizes the attention scores. Hence, the performance of LLMs in various NLP tasks depends significantly on the crucial role played by the attention mechanism with the softmax unit. In-context learning, as one of the celebrated abilities of recent LLMs, is an important concept in querying LLMs such as ChatGPT. Without further parameter updates, Transformers can learn to predict based on few in-context examples. However, the reason why Transformers becomes in-context learners is not well understood. Recently, several works [ASA+22,GTLV22,ONR+22] have studied the in-context learning from a mathematical perspective based on a linear regression formulation min_x| Ax - b |_2, which show Transformers' capability of learning linear functions in context. In this work, we study the in-context learning based on a softmax regression formulation min_{x} | langle exp(Ax), {bf 1}_n rangle^{-1} exp(Ax) - b |_2 of Transformer's attention mechanism. We show the upper bounds of the data transformations induced by a single self-attention layer and by gradient-descent on a ell_2 regression loss for softmax prediction function, which imply that when training self-attention-only Transformers for fundamental regression tasks, the models learned by gradient-descent and Transformers show great similarity.

Compact convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have witnessed exceptional improvements in performance in recent years. However, they still fail to provide the same predictive power as CNNs with a large number of parameters. The diverse and even abundant features captured by the layers is an important characteristic of these successful CNNs. However, differences in this characteristic between large CNNs and their compact counterparts have rarely been investigated. In compact CNNs, due to the limited number of parameters, abundant features are unlikely to be obtained, and feature diversity becomes an essential characteristic. Diverse features present in the activation maps derived from a data point during model inference may indicate the presence of a set of unique descriptors necessary to distinguish between objects of different classes. In contrast, data points with low feature diversity may not provide a sufficient amount of unique descriptors to make a valid prediction; we refer to them as random predictions. Random predictions can negatively impact the optimization process and harm the final performance. This paper proposes addressing the problem raised by random predictions by reshaping the standard cross-entropy to make it biased toward data points with a limited number of unique descriptive features. Our novel Bias Loss focuses the training on a set of valuable data points and prevents the vast number of samples with poor learning features from misleading the optimization process. Furthermore, to show the importance of diversity, we present a family of SkipNet models whose architectures are brought to boost the number of unique descriptors in the last layers. Our Skipnet-M can achieve 1% higher classification accuracy than MobileNetV3 Large.

Accurately measuring the cycle lifetime of commercial lithium-ion batteries is crucial for performance and technology development. We introduce a novel hybrid approach combining a physics-based equation with a self-attention model to predict the cycle lifetimes of commercial lithium iron phosphate graphite cells via early-cycle data. After fitting capacity loss curves to this physics-based equation, we then use a self-attention layer to reconstruct entire battery capacity loss curves. Our model exhibits comparable performances to existing models while predicting more information: the entire capacity loss curve instead of cycle life. This provides more robustness and interpretability: our model does not need to be retrained for a different notion of end-of-life and is backed by physical intuition.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

In this paper, we present a novel methodology we call MDS-ViTNet (Multi Decoder Saliency by Vision Transformer Network) for enhancing visual saliency prediction or eye-tracking. This approach holds significant potential for diverse fields, including marketing, medicine, robotics, and retail. We propose a network architecture that leverages the Vision Transformer, moving beyond the conventional ImageNet backbone. The framework adopts an encoder-decoder structure, with the encoder utilizing a Swin transformer to efficiently embed most important features. This process involves a Transfer Learning method, wherein layers from the Vision Transformer are converted by the Encoder Transformer and seamlessly integrated into a CNN Decoder. This methodology ensures minimal information loss from the original input image. The decoder employs a multi-decoding technique, utilizing dual decoders to generate two distinct attention maps. These maps are subsequently combined into a singular output via an additional CNN model. Our trained model MDS-ViTNet achieves state-of-the-art results across several benchmarks. Committed to fostering further collaboration, we intend to make our code, models, and datasets accessible to the public.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

We study the design of loss functions for click-through rates (CTR) to optimize (social) welfare in advertising auctions. Existing works either only focus on CTR predictions without consideration of business objectives (e.g., welfare) in auctions or assume that the distribution over the participants' expected cost-per-impression (eCPM) is known a priori, then use various additional assumptions on the parametric form of the distribution to derive loss functions for predicting CTRs. In this work, we bring back the welfare objectives of ad auctions into CTR predictions and propose a novel weighted rankloss to train the CTR model. Compared to existing literature, our approach provides a provable guarantee on welfare but without assumptions on the eCPMs' distribution while also avoiding the intractability of naively applying existing learning-to-rank methods. Further, we propose a theoretically justifiable technique for calibrating the losses using labels generated from a teacher network, only assuming that the teacher network has bounded ell_2 generalization error. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed loss on synthetic and real-world data.

In the presence of noisy labels, designing robust loss functions is critical for securing the generalization performance of deep neural networks. Cross Entropy (CE) loss has been shown to be not robust to noisy labels due to its unboundedness. To alleviate this issue, existing works typically design specialized robust losses with the symmetric condition, which usually lead to the underfitting issue. In this paper, our key idea is to induce a loss bound at the logit level, thus universally enhancing the noise robustness of existing losses. Specifically, we propose logit clipping (LogitClip), which clamps the norm of the logit vector to ensure that it is upper bounded by a constant. In this manner, CE loss equipped with our LogitClip method is effectively bounded, mitigating the overfitting to examples with noisy labels. Moreover, we present theoretical analyses to certify the noise-tolerant ability of LogitClip. Extensive experiments show that LogitClip not only significantly improves the noise robustness of CE loss, but also broadly enhances the generalization performance of popular robust losses.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, over a period of four years, from January 2015 till December 2019. Based on the NIFTY data during the said period, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the Close value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual Close values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

Applying resolution-preserving blocks is a common practice to maximize information preservation in video prediction, yet their high memory consumption greatly limits their application scenarios. We propose CrevNet, a Conditionally Reversible Network that uses reversible architectures to build a bijective two-way autoencoder and its complementary recurrent predictor. Our model enjoys the theoretically guaranteed property of no information loss during the feature extraction, much lower memory consumption and computational efficiency.

We show how perceptual embeddings of the visual system can be constructed at inference-time with no training data or deep neural network features. Our perceptual embeddings are solutions to a weighted least squares (WLS) problem, defined at the pixel-level, and solved at inference-time, that can capture global and local image characteristics. The distance in embedding space is used to define a perceptual similarity metric which we call LASI: Linear Autoregressive Similarity Index. Experiments on full-reference image quality assessment datasets show LASI performs competitively with learned deep feature based methods like LPIPS (Zhang et al., 2018) and PIM (Bhardwaj et al., 2020), at a similar computational cost to hand-crafted methods such as MS-SSIM (Wang et al., 2003). We found that increasing the dimensionality of the embedding space consistently reduces the WLS loss while increasing performance on perceptual tasks, at the cost of increasing the computational complexity. LASI is fully differentiable, scales cubically with the number of embedding dimensions, and can be parallelized at the pixel-level. A Maximum Differentiation (MAD) competition (Wang & Simoncelli, 2008) between LASI and LPIPS shows that both methods are capable of finding failure points for the other, suggesting these metrics can be combined.

In this paper, we revisit the limitations of anchor-based lane detection methods, which have predominantly focused on fixed anchors that stem from the edges of the image, disregarding their versatility and quality. To overcome the inflexibility of anchors, we decompose them into learning the heat map of starting points and their associated directions. This decomposition removes the limitations on the starting point of anchors, making our algorithm adaptable to different lane types in various datasets. To enhance the quality of anchors, we introduce the Large Kernel Attention (LKA) for Feature Pyramid Network (FPN). This significantly increases the receptive field, which is crucial in capturing the sufficient context as lane lines typically run throughout the entire image. We have named our proposed system the Anchor Decomposition Network (ADNet). Additionally, we propose the General Lane IoU (GLIoU) loss, which significantly improves the performance of ADNet in complex scenarios. Experimental results on three widely used lane detection benchmarks, VIL-100, CULane, and TuSimple, demonstrate that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on VIL-100 and exhibits competitive accuracy on CULane and TuSimple. Code and models will be released on https://github.com/ Sephirex-X/ADNet.

Human motion prediction is a classical problem in computer vision and computer graphics, which has a wide range of practical applications. Previous effects achieve great empirical performance based on an encoding-decoding style. The methods of this style work by first encoding previous motions to latent representations and then decoding the latent representations into predicted motions. However, in practice, they are still unsatisfactory due to several issues, including complicated loss constraints, cumbersome training processes, and scarce switch of different categories of motions in prediction. In this paper, to address the above issues, we jump out of the foregoing style and propose a novel framework from a new perspective. Specifically, our framework works in a masked completion fashion. In the training stage, we learn a motion diffusion model that generates motions from random noise. In the inference stage, with a denoising procedure, we make motion prediction conditioning on observed motions to output more continuous and controllable predictions. The proposed framework enjoys promising algorithmic properties, which only needs one loss in optimization and is trained in an end-to-end manner. Additionally, it accomplishes the switch of different categories of motions effectively, which is significant in realistic tasks, e.g., the animation task. Comprehensive experiments on benchmarks confirm the superiority of the proposed framework. The project page is available at https://lhchen.top/Human-MAC.

Transformers have achieved great success in pluralistic image inpainting recently. However, we find existing transformer based solutions regard each pixel as a token, thus suffer from information loss issue from two aspects: 1) They downsample the input image into much lower resolutions for efficiency consideration, incurring information loss and extra misalignment for the boundaries of masked regions. 2) They quantize 256^3 RGB pixels to a small number (such as 512) of quantized pixels. The indices of quantized pixels are used as tokens for the inputs and prediction targets of transformer. Although an extra CNN network is used to upsample and refine the low-resolution results, it is difficult to retrieve the lost information back.To keep input information as much as possible, we propose a new transformer based framework "PUT". Specifically, to avoid input downsampling while maintaining the computation efficiency, we design a patch-based auto-encoder P-VQVAE, where the encoder converts the masked image into non-overlapped patch tokens and the decoder recovers the masked regions from inpainted tokens while keeping the unmasked regions unchanged. To eliminate the information loss caused by quantization, an Un-Quantized Transformer (UQ-Transformer) is applied, which directly takes the features from P-VQVAE encoder as input without quantization and regards the quantized tokens only as prediction targets. Extensive experiments show that PUT greatly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on image fidelity, especially for large masked regions and complex large-scale datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/liuqk3/PUT

The prediction of saliency areas in images has been traditionally addressed with hand crafted features based on neuroscience principles. This paper however addresses the problem with a completely data-driven approach by training a convolutional network. The learning process is formulated as a minimization of a loss function that measures the Euclidean distance of the predicted saliency map with the provided ground truth. The recent publication of large datasets of saliency prediction has provided enough data to train a not very deep architecture which is both fast and accurate. The convolutional network in this paper, named JuntingNet, won the LSUN 2015 challenge on saliency prediction with a superior performance in all considered metrics.

We present MotionDiffuser, a diffusion based representation for the joint distribution of future trajectories over multiple agents. Such representation has several key advantages: first, our model learns a highly multimodal distribution that captures diverse future outcomes. Second, the simple predictor design requires only a single L2 loss training objective, and does not depend on trajectory anchors. Third, our model is capable of learning the joint distribution for the motion of multiple agents in a permutation-invariant manner. Furthermore, we utilize a compressed trajectory representation via PCA, which improves model performance and allows for efficient computation of the exact sample log probability. Subsequently, we propose a general constrained sampling framework that enables controlled trajectory sampling based on differentiable cost functions. This strategy enables a host of applications such as enforcing rules and physical priors, or creating tailored simulation scenarios. MotionDiffuser can be combined with existing backbone architectures to achieve top motion forecasting results. We obtain state-of-the-art results for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

Dynamic model pruning is a recent direction that allows for the inference of a different sub-network for each input sample during deployment. However, current dynamic methods rely on learning a continuous channel gating through regularization by inducing sparsity loss. This formulation introduces complexity in balancing different losses (e.g task loss, regularization loss). In addition, regularization based methods lack transparent tradeoff hyperparameter selection to realize a computational budget. Our contribution is two-fold: 1) decoupled task and pruning losses. 2) Simple hyperparameter selection that enables FLOPs reduction estimation before training. Inspired by the Hebbian theory in Neuroscience: "neurons that fire together wire together", we propose to predict a mask to process k filters in a layer based on the activation of its previous layer. We pose the problem as a self-supervised binary classification problem. Each mask predictor module is trained to predict if the log-likelihood for each filter in the current layer belongs to the top-k activated filters. The value k is dynamically estimated for each input based on a novel criterion using the mass of heatmaps. We show experiments on several neural architectures, such as VGG, ResNet and MobileNet on CIFAR and ImageNet datasets. On CIFAR, we reach similar accuracy to SOTA methods with 15% and 24% higher FLOPs reduction. Similarly in ImageNet, we achieve lower drop in accuracy with up to 13% improvement in FLOPs reduction.

Predicting disease trajectories from electronic health records (EHRs) is a complex task due to major challenges such as data non-stationarity, high granularity of medical codes, and integration of multimodal data. EHRs contain both structured data, such as diagnostic codes, and unstructured data, such as clinical notes, which hold essential information often overlooked. Current models, primarily based on structured data, struggle to capture the complete medical context of patients, resulting in a loss of valuable information. To address this issue, we propose an approach that integrates unstructured clinical notes into transformer-based deep learning models for sequential disease prediction. This integration enriches the representation of patients' medical histories, thereby improving the accuracy of diagnosis predictions. Experiments on MIMIC-IV datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms traditional models relying solely on structured data.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a promising route to sample-efficient policy optimization. However, a known vulnerability of reconstruction-based MBRL consists of scenarios in which detailed aspects of the world are highly predictable, but irrelevant to learning a good policy. Such scenarios can lead the model to exhaust its capacity on meaningless content, at the cost of neglecting important environment dynamics. While existing approaches attempt to solve this problem, we highlight its continuing impact on leading MBRL methods -- including DreamerV3 and DreamerPro -- with a novel environment where background distractions are intricate, predictable, and useless for planning future actions. To address this challenge we develop a method for focusing the capacity of the world model through synergy of a pretrained segmentation model, a task-aware reconstruction loss, and adversarial learning. Our method outperforms a variety of other approaches designed to reduce the impact of distractors, and is an advance towards robust model-based reinforcement learning.

Battery degradation remains a critical challenge in the pursuit of green technologies and sustainable energy solutions. Despite significant research efforts, predicting battery capacity loss accurately remains a formidable task due to its complex nature, influenced by both aging and cycling behaviors. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel general-purpose model for battery degradation prediction and synthesis, DiffBatt. Leveraging an innovative combination of conditional and unconditional diffusion models with classifier-free guidance and transformer architecture, DiffBatt achieves high expressivity and scalability. DiffBatt operates as a probabilistic model to capture uncertainty in aging behaviors and a generative model to simulate battery degradation. The performance of the model excels in prediction tasks while also enabling the generation of synthetic degradation curves, facilitating enhanced model training by data augmentation. In the remaining useful life prediction task, DiffBatt provides accurate results with a mean RMSE of 196 cycles across all datasets, outperforming all other models and demonstrating superior generalizability. This work represents an important step towards developing foundational models for battery degradation.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Modern text-to-image generation models produce high-quality images that are both photorealistic and faithful to the text prompts. However, this quality comes at significant computational cost: nearly all of these models are iterative and require running inference multiple times with large models. This iterative process is needed to ensure that different regions of the image are not only aligned with the text prompt, but also compatible with each other. In this work, we propose a light-weight approach to achieving this compatibility between different regions of an image, using a Markov Random Field (MRF) model. This method is shown to work in conjunction with the recently proposed Muse model. The MRF encodes the compatibility among image tokens at different spatial locations and enables us to significantly reduce the required number of Muse prediction steps. Inference with the MRF is significantly cheaper, and its parameters can be quickly learned through back-propagation by modeling MRF inference as a differentiable neural-network layer. Our full model, SPEGTI, uses this proposed MRF model to speed up Muse by 1.5X with no loss in output image quality.

This paper presents a novel neural vocoder named APNet which reconstructs speech waveforms from acoustic features by predicting amplitude and phase spectra directly. The APNet vocoder is composed of an amplitude spectrum predictor (ASP) and a phase spectrum predictor (PSP). The ASP is a residual convolution network which predicts frame-level log amplitude spectra from acoustic features. The PSP also adopts a residual convolution network using acoustic features as input, then passes the output of this network through two parallel linear convolution layers respectively, and finally integrates into a phase calculation formula to estimate frame-level phase spectra. Finally, the outputs of ASP and PSP are combined to reconstruct speech waveforms by inverse short-time Fourier transform (ISTFT). All operations of the ASP and PSP are performed at the frame level. We train the ASP and PSP jointly and define multilevel loss functions based on amplitude mean square error, phase anti-wrapping error, short-time spectral inconsistency error and time domain reconstruction error. Experimental results show that our proposed APNet vocoder achieves an approximately 8x faster inference speed than HiFi-GAN v1 on a CPU due to the all-frame-level operations, while its synthesized speech quality is comparable to HiFi-GAN v1. The synthesized speech quality of the APNet vocoder is also better than that of several equally efficient models. Ablation experiments also confirm that the proposed parallel phase estimation architecture is essential to phase modeling and the proposed loss functions are helpful for improving the synthesized speech quality.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) uses the teacher's prediction logits as soft labels to guide the student, while self-KD does not need a real teacher to require the soft labels. This work unifies the formulations of the two tasks by decomposing and reorganizing the generic KD loss into a Normalized KD (NKD) loss and customized soft labels for both target class (image's category) and non-target classes named Universal Self-Knowledge Distillation (USKD). We decompose the KD loss and find the non-target loss from it forces the student's non-target logits to match the teacher's, but the sum of the two non-target logits is different, preventing them from being identical. NKD normalizes the non-target logits to equalize their sum. It can be generally used for KD and self-KD to better use the soft labels for distillation loss. USKD generates customized soft labels for both target and non-target classes without a teacher. It smooths the target logit of the student as the soft target label and uses the rank of the intermediate feature to generate the soft non-target labels with Zipf's law. For KD with teachers, our NKD achieves state-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet datasets, boosting the ImageNet Top-1 accuracy of ResNet18 from 69.90% to 71.96% with a ResNet-34 teacher. For self-KD without teachers, USKD is the first self-KD method that can be effectively applied to both CNN and ViT models with negligible additional time and memory cost, resulting in new state-of-the-art results, such as 1.17% and 0.55% accuracy gains on ImageNet for MobileNet and DeiT-Tiny, respectively. Our codes are available at https://github.com/yzd-v/cls_KD.

In the field of antibody engineering, an essential task is to design a novel antibody whose paratopes bind to a specific antigen with correct epitopes. Understanding antibody structure and its paratope can facilitate a mechanistic understanding of its function. Therefore, antibody structure prediction from its sequence alone has always been a highly valuable problem for de novo antibody design. AlphaFold2, a breakthrough in the field of structural biology, provides a solution to predict protein structure based on protein sequences and computationally expensive coevolutionary multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). However, the computational efficiency and undesirable prediction accuracy of antibodies, especially on the complementarity-determining regions (CDRs) of antibodies limit their applications in the industrially high-throughput drug design. To learn an informative representation of antibodies, we employed a deep antibody language model (ALM) on curated sequences from the observed antibody space database via a transformer model. We also developed a novel model named xTrimoABFold to predict antibody structure from antibody sequence based on the pretrained ALM as well as efficient evoformers and structural modules. The model was trained end-to-end on the antibody structures in PDB by minimizing the ensemble loss of domain-specific focal loss on CDR and the frame-aligned point loss. xTrimoABFold outperforms AlphaFold2 and other protein language model based SOTAs, e.g., OmegaFold, HelixFold-Single, and IgFold with a large significant margin (30+\% improvement on RMSD) while performing 151 times faster than AlphaFold2. To the best of our knowledge, xTrimoABFold achieved state-of-the-art antibody structure prediction. Its improvement in both accuracy and efficiency makes it a valuable tool for de novo antibody design and could make further improvements in immuno-theory.

This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).

The use of deep neural networks in real-world applications require well-calibrated networks with confidence scores that accurately reflect the actual probability. However, it has been found that these networks often provide over-confident predictions, which leads to poor calibration. Recent efforts have sought to address this issue by focal loss to reduce over-confidence, but this approach can also lead to under-confident predictions. While different variants of focal loss have been explored, it is difficult to find a balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. In our work, we propose a new loss function by focusing on dual logits. Our method not only considers the ground truth logit, but also take into account the highest logit ranked after the ground truth logit. By maximizing the gap between these two logits, our proposed dual focal loss can achieve a better balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. We provide theoretical evidence to support our approach and demonstrate its effectiveness through evaluations on multiple models and datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at https://github.com/Linwei94/DualFocalLoss

Extraction of building footprint polygons from remotely sensed data is essential for several urban understanding tasks such as reconstruction, navigation, and mapping. Despite significant progress in the area, extracting accurate polygonal building footprints remains an open problem. In this paper, we introduce Pix2Poly, an attention-based end-to-end trainable and differentiable deep neural network capable of directly generating explicit high-quality building footprints in a ring graph format. Pix2Poly employs a generative encoder-decoder transformer to produce a sequence of graph vertex tokens whose connectivity information is learned by an optimal matching network. Compared to previous graph learning methods, ours is a truly end-to-end trainable approach that extracts high-quality building footprints and road networks without requiring complicated, computationally intensive raster loss functions and intricate training pipelines. Upon evaluating Pix2Poly on several complex and challenging datasets, we report that Pix2Poly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in several vector shape quality metrics while being an entirely explicit method. Our code is available at https://github.com/yeshwanth95/Pix2Poly.

Brain tumor growth is unique to each glioma patient and extends beyond what is visible in imaging scans, infiltrating surrounding brain tissue. Understanding these hidden patient-specific progressions is essential for effective therapies. Current treatment plans for brain tumors, such as radiotherapy, typically involve delineating a uniform margin around the visible tumor on pre-treatment scans to target this invisible tumor growth. This "one size fits all" approach is derived from population studies and often fails to account for the nuances of individual patient conditions. We present the GliODIL framework, which infers the full spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration from available multi-modal imaging, leveraging a Fisher-Kolmogorov type physics model to describe tumor growth. This is achieved through the newly introduced method of Optimizing the Discrete Loss (ODIL), where both data and physics-based constraints are softly assimilated into the solution. Our test dataset comprises 152 glioblastoma patients with pre-treatment imaging and post-treatment follow-ups for tumor recurrence monitoring. By blending data-driven techniques with physics-based constraints, GliODIL enhances recurrence prediction in radiotherapy planning, challenging traditional uniform margins and strict adherence to the Fisher-Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE) model, which is adapted for complex cases.

Discontinuing ad creatives at an appropriate time is one of the most important ad operations that can have a significant impact on sales. Such operational support for ineffective ads has been less explored than that for effective ads. After pre-analyzing 1,000,000 real-world ad creatives, we found that there are two types of discontinuation: short-term (i.e., cut-out) and long-term (i.e., wear-out). In this paper, we propose a practical prediction framework for the discontinuation of ad creatives with a hazard function-based loss function inspired by survival analysis. Our framework predicts the discontinuations with a multi-modal deep neural network that takes as input the ad creative (e.g., text, categorical, image, numerical features). To improve the prediction performance for the two different types of discontinuations and for the ad creatives that contribute to sales, we introduce two new techniques: (1) a two-term estimation technique with multi-task learning and (2) a click-through rate-weighting technique for the loss function. We evaluated our framework using the large-scale ad creative dataset, including 10 billion scale impressions. In terms of the concordance index (short: 0.896, long: 0.939, and overall: 0.792), our framework achieved significantly better performance than the conventional method (0.531). Additionally, we confirmed that our framework (i) demonstrated the same degree of discontinuation effect as manual operations for short-term cases, and (ii) accurately predicted the ad discontinuation order, which is important for long-running ad creatives for long-term cases.

We introduce KALL-E, a novel autoregressive (AR) language modeling approach with next-distribution prediction for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. Unlike existing methods, KALL-E directly models and predicts the continuous speech distribution conditioned on text without relying on VAE- or diffusion-based components. Specifically, we use WaveVAE to extract continuous speech distributions from waveforms instead of using discrete speech tokens. A single AR language model predicts these continuous speech distributions from text, with a Kullback-Leibler divergence loss as the constraint. Experimental results show that KALL-E outperforms open-source implementations of YourTTS, VALL-E, NaturalSpeech 2, and CosyVoice in terms of naturalness and speaker similarity in zero-shot TTS scenarios. Moreover, KALL-E demonstrates exceptional zero-shot capabilities in emotion and accent cloning. Importantly, KALL-E presents a more straightforward and effective paradigm for using continuous speech representations in TTS. Audio samples are available at: https://zxf-icpc.github.io/kalle/.

Large pre-trained language models achieve impressive results across many tasks. However, recent works point out that pre-trained language models may memorize a considerable fraction of their training data, leading to the privacy risk of information leakage. In this paper, we propose a method named Ethicist for targeted training data extraction through loss smoothed soft prompting and calibrated confidence estimation, investigating how to recover the suffix in the training data when given a prefix. To elicit memorization in the attacked model, we tune soft prompt embeddings while keeping the model fixed. We further propose a smoothing loss that smooths the loss distribution of the suffix tokens to make it easier to sample the correct suffix. In order to select the most probable suffix from a collection of sampled suffixes and estimate the prediction confidence, we propose a calibrated confidence estimation method, which normalizes the confidence of the generated suffixes with a local estimation. We show that Ethicist significantly improves the extraction performance on a recently proposed public benchmark. We also investigate several factors influencing the data extraction performance, including decoding strategy, model scale, prefix length, and suffix length. Our code is available at https://github.com/thu-coai/Targeted-Data-Extraction.

Time Series Forecasting has been an active area of research due to its many applications ranging from network usage prediction, resource allocation, anomaly detection, and predictive maintenance. Numerous publications published in the last five years have proposed diverse sets of objective loss functions to address cases such as biased data, long-term forecasting, multicollinear features, etc. In this paper, we have summarized 14 well-known regression loss functions commonly used for time series forecasting and listed out the circumstances where their application can aid in faster and better model convergence. We have also demonstrated how certain categories of loss functions perform well across all data sets and can be considered as a baseline objective function in circumstances where the distribution of the data is unknown. Our code is available at GitHub: https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Regression-Loss-Functions-in-Time-Series-Forecasting-Tensorflow.

Self-training has greatly facilitated domain adaptive semantic segmentation, which iteratively generates pseudo labels on unlabeled target data and retrains the network. However, realistic segmentation datasets are highly imbalanced, pseudo labels are typically biased to the majority classes and basically noisy, leading to an error-prone and suboptimal model. In this paper, we propose a simple region-based active learning approach for semantic segmentation under a domain shift, aiming to automatically query a small partition of image regions to be labeled while maximizing segmentation performance. Our algorithm, Region Impurity and Prediction Uncertainty (RIPU), introduces a new acquisition strategy characterizing the spatial adjacency of image regions along with the prediction confidence. We show that the proposed region-based selection strategy makes more efficient use of a limited budget than image-based or point-based counterparts. Further, we enforce local prediction consistency between a pixel and its nearest neighbors on a source image. Alongside, we develop a negative learning loss to make the features more discriminative. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method only requires very few annotations to almost reach the supervised performance and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/BIT-DA/RIPU.

Denoising with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (D-JEPA), an autoregressive model, has demonstrated outstanding performance in class-conditional image generation. However, the application of next-token prediction in high-resolution text-to-image generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we introduce D-JEPAcdotT2I, an extension of D-JEPA incorporating flow matching loss, designed to enable data-efficient continuous resolution learning. D-JEPAcdotT2I leverages a multimodal visual transformer to effectively integrate textual and visual features and adopts Visual Rotary Positional Embedding (VoPE) to facilitate continuous resolution learning. Furthermore, we devise a data feedback mechanism that significantly enhances data utilization efficiency. For the first time, we achieve state-of-the-art high-resolution image synthesis via next-token prediction. The experimental code and pretrained models will be open-sourced at https://d-jepa.github.io/t2i.

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

Despite its outstanding performance in various graph tasks, vanilla Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) usually fails in link prediction tasks, as it only uses representations of two individual target nodes and ignores the pairwise relation between them. To capture the pairwise relations, some models add manual features to the input graph and use the output of MPNN to produce pairwise representations. In contrast, others directly use manual features as pairwise representations. Though this simplification avoids applying a GNN to each link individually and thus improves scalability, these models still have much room for performance improvement due to the hand-crafted and unlearnable pairwise features. To upgrade performance while maintaining scalability, we propose Neural Common Neighbor (NCN), which uses learnable pairwise representations. To further boost NCN, we study the unobserved link problem. The incompleteness of the graph is ubiquitous and leads to distribution shifts between the training and test set, loss of common neighbor information, and performance degradation of models. Therefore, we propose two intervention methods: common neighbor completion and target link removal. Combining the two methods with NCN, we propose Neural Common Neighbor with Completion (NCNC). NCN and NCNC outperform recent strong baselines by large margins. NCNC achieves state-of-the-art performance in link prediction tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/GraphPKU/NeuralCommonNeighbor.

Machine learning models in health care are often deployed in settings where it is important to protect patient privacy. In such settings, methods for differentially private (DP) learning provide a general-purpose approach to learn models with privacy guarantees. Modern methods for DP learning ensure privacy through mechanisms that censor information judged as too unique. The resulting privacy-preserving models, therefore, neglect information from the tails of a data distribution, resulting in a loss of accuracy that can disproportionately affect small groups. In this paper, we study the effects of DP learning in health care. We use state-of-the-art methods for DP learning to train privacy-preserving models in clinical prediction tasks, including x-ray classification of images and mortality prediction in time series data. We use these models to perform a comprehensive empirical investigation of the tradeoffs between privacy, utility, robustness to dataset shift, and fairness. Our results highlight lesser-known limitations of methods for DP learning in health care, models that exhibit steep tradeoffs between privacy and utility, and models whose predictions are disproportionately influenced by large demographic groups in the training data. We discuss the costs and benefits of differentially private learning in health care.

Despite being robust to small amounts of label noise, convolutional neural networks trained with stochastic gradient methods have been shown to easily fit random labels. When there are a mixture of correct and mislabelled targets, networks tend to fit the former before the latter. This suggests using a suitable two-component mixture model as an unsupervised generative model of sample loss values during training to allow online estimation of the probability that a sample is mislabelled. Specifically, we propose a beta mixture to estimate this probability and correct the loss by relying on the network prediction (the so-called bootstrapping loss). We further adapt mixup augmentation to drive our approach a step further. Experiments on CIFAR-10/100 and TinyImageNet demonstrate a robustness to label noise that substantially outperforms recent state-of-the-art. Source code is available at https://git.io/fjsvE

Despite the effectiveness of recurrent neural network language models, their maximum likelihood estimation suffers from two limitations. It treats all sentences that do not match the ground truth as equally poor, ignoring the structure of the output space. Second, it suffers from "exposure bias": during training tokens are predicted given ground-truth sequences, while at test time prediction is conditioned on generated output sequences. To overcome these limitations we build upon the recent reward augmented maximum likelihood approach \ie sequence-level smoothing that encourages the model to predict sentences close to the ground truth according to a given performance metric. We extend this approach to token-level loss smoothing, and propose improvements to the sequence-level smoothing approach. Our experiments on two different tasks, image captioning and machine translation, show that token-level and sequence-level loss smoothing are complementary, and significantly improve results.

Despite recent progress in reinforcement learning (RL) from raw pixel data, sample inefficiency continues to present a substantial obstacle. Prior works have attempted to address this challenge by creating self-supervised auxiliary tasks, aiming to enrich the agent's learned representations with control-relevant information for future state prediction. However, these objectives are often insufficient to learn representations that can represent the optimal policy or value function, and they often consider tasks with small, abstract discrete action spaces and thus overlook the importance of action representation learning in continuous control. In this paper, we introduce TACO: Temporal Action-driven Contrastive Learning, a simple yet powerful temporal contrastive learning approach that facilitates the concurrent acquisition of latent state and action representations for agents. TACO simultaneously learns a state and an action representation by optimizing the mutual information between representations of current states paired with action sequences and representations of the corresponding future states. Theoretically, TACO can be shown to learn state and action representations that encompass sufficient information for control, thereby improving sample efficiency. For online RL, TACO achieves 40% performance boost after one million environment interaction steps on average across nine challenging visual continuous control tasks from Deepmind Control Suite. In addition, we show that TACO can also serve as a plug-and-play module adding to existing offline visual RL methods to establish the new state-of-the-art performance for offline visual RL across offline datasets with varying quality.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

Accurate Vehicle Trajectory Prediction is critical for automated vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems. Vehicle trajectory prediction consists of two essential tasks, i.e., longitudinal position prediction and lateral position prediction. There is a significant correlation between driving intentions and vehicle motion. In existing work, the three tasks are often conducted separately without considering the relationships between the longitudinal position, lateral position, and driving intention. In this paper, we propose a novel Temporal Multi-Gate Mixture-of-Experts (TMMOE) model for simultaneously predicting the vehicle trajectory and driving intention. The proposed model consists of three layers: a shared layer, an expert layer, and a fully connected layer. In the model, the shared layer utilizes Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) to extract temporal features. Then the expert layer is built to identify different information according to the three tasks. Moreover, the fully connected layer is used to integrate and export prediction results. To achieve better performance, uncertainty algorithm is used to construct the multi-task loss function. Finally, the publicly available CitySim dataset validates the TMMOE model, demonstrating superior performance compared to the LSTM model, achieving the highest classification and regression results. Keywords: Vehicle trajectory prediction, driving intentions Classification, Multi-task

Modern machine learning (ML) systems demand substantial training data, often resorting to external sources. Nevertheless, this practice renders them vulnerable to backdoor poisoning attacks. Prior backdoor defense strategies have primarily focused on the identification of backdoored models or poisoned data characteristics, typically operating under the assumption of access to clean data. In this work, we delve into a relatively underexplored challenge: the automatic identification of backdoor data within a poisoned dataset, all under realistic conditions, i.e., without the need for additional clean data or without manually defining a threshold for backdoor detection. We draw an inspiration from the scaled prediction consistency (SPC) technique, which exploits the prediction invariance of poisoned data to an input scaling factor. Based on this, we pose the backdoor data identification problem as a hierarchical data splitting optimization problem, leveraging a novel SPC-based loss function as the primary optimization objective. Our innovation unfolds in several key aspects. First, we revisit the vanilla SPC method, unveiling its limitations in addressing the proposed backdoor identification problem. Subsequently, we develop a bi-level optimization-based approach to precisely identify backdoor data by minimizing the advanced SPC loss. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our proposal against a spectrum of backdoor attacks, encompassing basic label-corrupted attacks as well as more sophisticated clean-label attacks, evaluated across various benchmark datasets. Experiment results show that our approach often surpasses the performance of current baselines in identifying backdoor data points, resulting in about 4%-36% improvement in average AUROC. Codes are available at https://github.com/OPTML-Group/BackdoorMSPC.

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

Neural networks have recently achieved human-level performance on various challenging natural language processing (NLP) tasks, but it is notoriously difficult to understand why a neural network produced a particular prediction. In this paper, we leverage the text-to-text framework proposed by Raffel et al.(2019) to train language models to output a natural text explanation alongside their prediction. Crucially, this requires no modifications to the loss function or training and decoding procedures -- we simply train the model to output the explanation after generating the (natural text) prediction. We show that this approach not only obtains state-of-the-art results on explainability benchmarks, but also permits learning from a limited set of labeled explanations and transferring rationalization abilities across datasets. To facilitate reproducibility and future work, we release our code use to train the models.

The irregularity and permutation invariance of point cloud data pose challenges for effective learning. Conventional methods for addressing this issue involve converting raw point clouds to intermediate representations such as 3D voxel grids or range images. While such intermediate representations solve the problem of permutation invariance, they can result in significant loss of information. Approaches that do learn on raw point clouds either have trouble in resolving neighborhood relationships between points or are too complicated in their formulation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to representing point clouds as a locality preserving 1D ordering induced by the Hilbert space-filling curve. We also introduce Point2Point, a neural architecture that can effectively learn on Hilbert-sorted point clouds. We show that Point2Point shows competitive performance on point cloud segmentation and generation tasks. Finally, we show the performance of Point2Point on Spatio-temporal Occupancy prediction from Point clouds.

The detailed images produced by Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) provide life-critical information for the diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer. To provide standardized acquisition, interpretation and usage of the complex MRI images, the PI-RADS v2 guideline was proposed. An automated segmentation following the guideline facilitates consistent and precise lesion detection, staging and treatment. The guideline recommends a division of the prostate into four zones, PZ (peripheral zone), TZ (transition zone), DPU (distal prostatic urethra) and AFS (anterior fibromuscular stroma). Not every zone shares a boundary with the others and is present in every slice. Further, the representations captured by a single model might not suffice for all zones. This motivated us to design a dual-branch convolutional neural network (CNN), where each branch captures the representations of the connected zones separately. Further, the representations from different branches act complementary to each other at the second stage of training, where they are fine-tuned through an unsupervised loss. The loss penalises the difference in predictions from the two branches for the same class. We also incorporate multi-task learning in our framework to further improve the segmentation accuracy. The proposed approach improves the segmentation accuracy of the baseline (mean absolute symmetric distance) by 7.56%, 11.00%, 58.43% and 19.67% for PZ, TZ, DPU and AFS zones respectively.

Rapid progress in 3D semantic segmentation is inseparable from the advances of deep network models, which highly rely on large-scale annotated data for training. To address the high cost and challenges of 3D point-level labeling, we present a method for semi-supervised point cloud semantic segmentation to adopt unlabeled point clouds in training to boost the model performance. Inspired by the recent contrastive loss in self-supervised tasks, we propose the guided point contrastive loss to enhance the feature representation and model generalization ability in semi-supervised setting. Semantic predictions on unlabeled point clouds serve as pseudo-label guidance in our loss to avoid negative pairs in the same category. Also, we design the confidence guidance to ensure high-quality feature learning. Besides, a category-balanced sampling strategy is proposed to collect positive and negative samples to mitigate the class imbalance problem. Extensive experiments on three datasets (ScanNet V2, S3DIS, and SemanticKITTI) show the effectiveness of our semi-supervised method to improve the prediction quality with unlabeled data.

We introduce DOPE, the first method to detect and estimate whole-body 3D human poses, including bodies, hands and faces, in the wild. Achieving this level of details is key for a number of applications that require understanding the interactions of the people with each other or with the environment. The main challenge is the lack of in-the-wild data with labeled whole-body 3D poses. In previous work, training data has been annotated or generated for simpler tasks focusing on bodies, hands or faces separately. In this work, we propose to take advantage of these datasets to train independent experts for each part, namely a body, a hand and a face expert, and distill their knowledge into a single deep network designed for whole-body 2D-3D pose detection. In practice, given a training image with partial or no annotation, each part expert detects its subset of keypoints in 2D and 3D and the resulting estimations are combined to obtain whole-body pseudo ground-truth poses. A distillation loss encourages the whole-body predictions to mimic the experts' outputs. Our results show that this approach significantly outperforms the same whole-body model trained without distillation while staying close to the performance of the experts. Importantly, DOPE is computationally less demanding than the ensemble of experts and can achieve real-time performance. Test code and models are available at https://europe.naverlabs.com/research/computer-vision/dope.

Neurons in the brain are spatially organized such that neighbors on tissue often exhibit similar response profiles. In the human language system, experimental studies have observed clusters for syntactic and semantic categories, but the mechanisms underlying this functional organization remain unclear. Here, building on work from the vision literature, we develop TopoLM, a transformer language model with an explicit two-dimensional spatial representation of model units. By combining a next-token prediction objective with a spatial smoothness loss, representations in this model assemble into clusters that correspond to semantically interpretable groupings of text and closely match the functional organization in the brain's language system. TopoLM successfully predicts the emergence of the spatio-functional organization of a cortical language system as well as the organization of functional clusters selective for fine-grained linguistic features empirically observed in human cortex. Our results suggest that the functional organization of the human language system is driven by a unified spatial objective, and provide a functionally and spatially aligned model of language processing in the brain.

We introduce Transfusion, a recipe for training a multi-modal model over discrete and continuous data. Transfusion combines the language modeling loss function (next token prediction) with diffusion to train a single transformer over mixed-modality sequences. We pretrain multiple Transfusion models up to 7B parameters from scratch on a mixture of text and image data, establishing scaling laws with respect to a variety of uni- and cross-modal benchmarks. Our experiments show that Transfusion scales significantly better than quantizing images and training a language model over discrete image tokens. By introducing modality-specific encoding and decoding layers, we can further improve the performance of Transfusion models, and even compress each image to just 16 patches. We further demonstrate that scaling our Transfusion recipe to 7B parameters and 2T multi-modal tokens produces a model that can generate images and text on a par with similar scale diffusion models and language models, reaping the benefits of both worlds.

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

The massive growth of self-supervised learning (SSL) has been witnessed in language, vision, speech, and audio domains over the past few years. While discrete label prediction is widely adopted for other modalities, the state-of-the-art audio SSL models still employ reconstruction loss for pre-training. Compared with reconstruction loss, semantic-rich discrete label prediction encourages the SSL model to abstract the high-level audio semantics and discard the redundant details as in human perception. However, a semantic-rich acoustic tokenizer for general audio pre-training is usually not straightforward to obtain, due to the continuous property of audio and unavailable phoneme sequences like speech. To tackle this challenge, we propose BEATs, an iterative audio pre-training framework to learn Bidirectional Encoder representation from Audio Transformers, where an acoustic tokenizer and an audio SSL model are optimized by iterations. In the first iteration, we use random projection as the acoustic tokenizer to train an audio SSL model in a mask and label prediction manner. Then, we train an acoustic tokenizer for the next iteration by distilling the semantic knowledge from the pre-trained or fine-tuned audio SSL model. The iteration is repeated with the hope of mutual promotion of the acoustic tokenizer and audio SSL model. The experimental results demonstrate our acoustic tokenizers can generate discrete labels with rich audio semantics and our audio SSL models achieve state-of-the-art results across various audio classification benchmarks, even outperforming previous models that use more training data and model parameters significantly. Specifically, we set a new state-of-the-art mAP 50.6% on AudioSet-2M for audio-only models without using any external data, and 98.1% accuracy on ESC-50. The code and pre-trained models are available at https://aka.ms/beats.

Recent studies show that Question Answering (QA) based on Answer Sentence Selection (AS2) can be improved by generating an improved answer from the top-k ranked answer sentences (termed GenQA). This allows for synthesizing the information from multiple candidates into a concise, natural-sounding answer. However, creating large-scale supervised training data for GenQA models is very challenging. In this paper, we propose to train a GenQA model by transferring knowledge from a trained AS2 model, to overcome the aforementioned issue. First, we use an AS2 model to produce a ranking over answer candidates for a set of questions. Then, we use the top ranked candidate as the generation target, and the next k top ranked candidates as context for training a GenQA model. We also propose to use the AS2 model prediction scores for loss weighting and score-conditioned input/output shaping, to aid the knowledge transfer. Our evaluation on three public and one large industrial datasets demonstrates the superiority of our approach over the AS2 baseline, and GenQA trained using supervised data.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Prior works have demonstrated zero-shot text-to-speech by using a generative language model on audio tokens obtained via a neural audio codec. It is still challenging, however, to adapt them to low-latency scenarios. In this paper, we present LiveSpeech - a fully autoregressive language model-based approach for zero-shot text-to-speech, enabling low-latency streaming of the output audio. To allow multiple token prediction within a single decoding step, we propose (1) using adaptive codebook loss weights that consider codebook contribution in each frame and focus on hard instances, and (2) grouping codebooks and processing groups in parallel. Experiments show our proposed models achieve competitive results to state-of-the-art baselines in terms of content accuracy, speaker similarity, audio quality, and inference speed while being suitable for low-latency streaming applications.

Dual-encoder (DE) models are widely used in retrieval tasks, most commonly studied on open QA benchmarks that are often characterized by multi-class and limited training data. In contrast, their performance in multi-label and data-rich retrieval settings like extreme multi-label classification (XMC), remains under-explored. Current empirical evidence indicates that DE models fall significantly short on XMC benchmarks, where SOTA methods linearly scale the number of learnable parameters with the total number of classes (documents in the corpus) by employing per-class classification head. To this end, we first study and highlight that existing multi-label contrastive training losses are not appropriate for training DE models on XMC tasks. We propose decoupled softmax loss - a simple modification to the InfoNCE loss - that overcomes the limitations of existing contrastive losses. We further extend our loss design to a soft top-k operator-based loss which is tailored to optimize top-k prediction performance. When trained with our proposed loss functions, standard DE models alone can match or outperform SOTA methods by up to 2% at Precision@1 even on the largest XMC datasets while being 20x smaller in terms of the number of trainable parameters. This leads to more parameter-efficient and universally applicable solutions for retrieval tasks. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/nilesh2797/dexml.

Latent diffusion models (LDMs) power state-of-the-art high-resolution generative image models. LDMs learn the data distribution in the latent space of an autoencoder (AE) and produce images by mapping the generated latents into RGB image space using the AE decoder. While this approach allows for efficient model training and sampling, it induces a disconnect between the training of the diffusion model and the decoder, resulting in a loss of detail in the generated images. To remediate this disconnect, we propose to leverage the internal features of the decoder to define a latent perceptual loss (LPL). This loss encourages the models to create sharper and more realistic images. Our loss can be seamlessly integrated with common autoencoders used in latent diffusion models, and can be applied to different generative modeling paradigms such as DDPM with epsilon and velocity prediction, as well as flow matching. Extensive experiments with models trained on three datasets at 256 and 512 resolution show improved quantitative -- with boosts between 6% and 20% in FID -- and qualitative results when using our perceptual loss.

In unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA), a model trained on source data (e.g. synthetic) is adapted to target data (e.g. real-world) without access to target annotation. Most previous UDA methods struggle with classes that have a similar visual appearance on the target domain as no ground truth is available to learn the slight appearance differences. To address this problem, we propose a Masked Image Consistency (MIC) module to enhance UDA by learning spatial context relations of the target domain as additional clues for robust visual recognition. MIC enforces the consistency between predictions of masked target images, where random patches are withheld, and pseudo-labels that are generated based on the complete image by an exponential moving average teacher. To minimize the consistency loss, the network has to learn to infer the predictions of the masked regions from their context. Due to its simple and universal concept, MIC can be integrated into various UDA methods across different visual recognition tasks such as image classification, semantic segmentation, and object detection. MIC significantly improves the state-of-the-art performance across the different recognition tasks for synthetic-to-real, day-to-nighttime, and clear-to-adverse-weather UDA. For instance, MIC achieves an unprecedented UDA performance of 75.9 mIoU and 92.8% on GTA-to-Cityscapes and VisDA-2017, respectively, which corresponds to an improvement of +2.1 and +3.0 percent points over the previous state of the art. The implementation is available at https://github.com/lhoyer/MIC.

We propose a novel method for discovering shape regions that strongly correlate with user-prescribed tags. For example, given a collection of chairs tagged as either "has armrest" or "lacks armrest", our system correctly highlights the armrest regions as the main distinctive parts between the two chair types. To obtain point-wise predictions from shape-wise tags we develop a novel neural network architecture that is trained with tag classification loss, but is designed to rely on segmentation to predict the tag. Our network is inspired by U-Net, but we replicate shallow U structures several times with new skip connections and pooling layers, and call the resulting architecture "WU-Net". We test our method on segmentation benchmarks and show that even with weak supervision of whole shape tags, our method can infer meaningful semantic regions, without ever observing shape segmentations. Further, once trained, the model can process shapes for which the tag is entirely unknown. As a bonus, our architecture is directly operational under full supervision and performs strongly on standard benchmarks. We validate our method through experiments with many variant architectures and prior baselines, and demonstrate several applications.

Large-scale video generation models have the inherent ability to realistically model natural scenes. In this paper, we demonstrate that through a careful design of a generative video propagation framework, various video tasks can be addressed in a unified way by leveraging the generative power of such models. Specifically, our framework, GenProp, encodes the original video with a selective content encoder and propagates the changes made to the first frame using an image-to-video generation model. We propose a data generation scheme to cover multiple video tasks based on instance-level video segmentation datasets. Our model is trained by incorporating a mask prediction decoder head and optimizing a region-aware loss to aid the encoder to preserve the original content while the generation model propagates the modified region. This novel design opens up new possibilities: In editing scenarios, GenProp allows substantial changes to an object's shape; for insertion, the inserted objects can exhibit independent motion; for removal, GenProp effectively removes effects like shadows and reflections from the whole video; for tracking, GenProp is capable of tracking objects and their associated effects together. Experiment results demonstrate the leading performance of our model in various video tasks, and we further provide in-depth analyses of the proposed framework.

Asphalt concrete's (AC) durability and maintenance demands are strongly influenced by its fatigue life. Traditional methods for determining this characteristic are both resource-intensive and time-consuming. This study employs artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict AC fatigue life, focusing on the impact of strain level, binder content, and air-void content. Leveraging a substantial dataset, we tailored our models to effectively handle the wide range of fatigue life data, typically represented on a logarithmic scale. The mean square logarithmic error was utilized as the loss function to enhance prediction accuracy across all levels of fatigue life. Through comparative analysis of various hyperparameters, we developed a machine-learning model that captures the complex relationships within the data. Our findings demonstrate that higher binder content significantly enhances fatigue life, while the influence of air-void content is more variable, depending on binder levels. Most importantly, this study provides insights into the intricacies of using ANNs for modeling, showcasing their potential utility with larger datasets. The codes developed and the data used in this study are provided as open source on a GitHub repository, with a link included in the paper for full access.

Recent works have shown a reduction from contextual bandits to online regression under a realizability assumption [Foster and Rakhlin, 2020, Foster and Krishnamurthy, 2021]. In this work, we investigate the use of neural networks for such online regression and associated Neural Contextual Bandits (NeuCBs). Using existing results for wide networks, one can readily show a {O}(T) regret for online regression with square loss, which via the reduction implies a {O}(K T^{3/4}) regret for NeuCBs. Departing from this standard approach, we first show a O(log T) regret for online regression with almost convex losses that satisfy QG (Quadratic Growth) condition, a generalization of the PL (Polyak-\L ojasiewicz) condition, and that have a unique minima. Although not directly applicable to wide networks since they do not have unique minima, we show that adding a suitable small random perturbation to the network predictions surprisingly makes the loss satisfy QG with unique minima. Based on such a perturbed prediction, we show a {O}(log T) regret for online regression with both squared loss and KL loss, and subsequently convert these respectively to mathcal{O}(KT) and mathcal{O}(KL^* + K) regret for NeuCB, where L^* is the loss of the best policy. Separately, we also show that existing regret bounds for NeuCBs are Omega(T) or assume i.i.d. contexts, unlike this work. Finally, our experimental results on various datasets demonstrate that our algorithms, especially the one based on KL loss, persistently outperform existing algorithms.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

Direct prediction of 3D body pose and shape remains a challenge even for highly parameterized deep learning models. Mapping from the 2D image space to the prediction space is difficult: perspective ambiguities make the loss function noisy and training data is scarce. In this paper, we propose a novel approach (Neural Body Fitting (NBF)). It integrates a statistical body model within a CNN, leveraging reliable bottom-up semantic body part segmentation and robust top-down body model constraints. NBF is fully differentiable and can be trained using 2D and 3D annotations. In detailed experiments, we analyze how the components of our model affect performance, especially the use of part segmentations as an explicit intermediate representation, and present a robust, efficiently trainable framework for 3D human pose estimation from 2D images with competitive results on standard benchmarks. Code will be made available at http://github.com/mohomran/neural_body_fitting

Grokking, the sudden generalization that occurs after prolonged overfitting, is a surprising phenomenon challenging our understanding of deep learning. Although significant progress has been made in understanding grokking, the reasons behind the delayed generalization and its dependence on regularization remain unclear. In this work, we argue that without regularization, grokking tasks push models to the edge of numerical stability, introducing floating point errors in the Softmax function, which we refer to as Softmax Collapse (SC). We demonstrate that SC prevents grokking and that mitigating SC enables grokking without regularization. Investigating the root cause of SC, we find that beyond the point of overfitting, the gradients strongly align with what we call the na\"ive loss minimization (NLM) direction. This component of the gradient does not alter the model's predictions but decreases the loss by scaling the logits, typically by scaling the weights along their current direction. We show that this scaling of the logits explains the delay in generalization characteristic of grokking and eventually leads to SC, halting further learning. To validate our hypotheses, we introduce two key contributions that address the challenges in grokking tasks: StableMax, a new activation function that prevents SC and enables grokking without regularization, and perpGrad, a training algorithm that promotes quick generalization in grokking tasks by preventing NLM altogether. These contributions provide new insights into grokking, elucidating its delayed generalization, reliance on regularization, and the effectiveness of existing grokking-inducing methods. Code for this paper is available at https://github.com/LucasPrietoAl/grokking-at-the-edge-of-numerical-stability.

The capability of the traditional semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods is far from real-world application due to severely biased pseudo-labels caused by (1) class imbalance and (2) class distribution mismatch between labeled and unlabeled data. This paper addresses such a relatively under-explored problem. First, we propose a general pseudo-labeling framework that class-adaptively blends the semantic pseudo-label from a similarity-based classifier to the linear one from the linear classifier, after making the observation that both types of pseudo-labels have complementary properties in terms of bias. We further introduce a novel semantic alignment loss to establish balanced feature representation to reduce the biased predictions from the classifier. We term the whole framework as Distribution-Aware Semantics-Oriented (DASO) Pseudo-label. We conduct extensive experiments in a wide range of imbalanced benchmarks: CIFAR10/100-LT, STL10-LT, and large-scale long-tailed Semi-Aves with open-set class, and demonstrate that, the proposed DASO framework reliably improves SSL learners with unlabeled data especially when both (1) class imbalance and (2) distribution mismatch dominate.

The generalization and learning speed of a multi-class neural network can often be significantly improved by using soft targets that are a weighted average of the hard targets and the uniform distribution over labels. Smoothing the labels in this way prevents the network from becoming over-confident and label smoothing has been used in many state-of-the-art models, including image classification, language translation and speech recognition. Despite its widespread use, label smoothing is still poorly understood. Here we show empirically that in addition to improving generalization, label smoothing improves model calibration which can significantly improve beam-search. However, we also observe that if a teacher network is trained with label smoothing, knowledge distillation into a student network is much less effective. To explain these observations, we visualize how label smoothing changes the representations learned by the penultimate layer of the network. We show that label smoothing encourages the representations of training examples from the same class to group in tight clusters. This results in loss of information in the logits about resemblances between instances of different classes, which is necessary for distillation, but does not hurt generalization or calibration of the model's predictions.

Image-to-video (I2V) generation tasks always suffer from keeping high fidelity in the open domains. Traditional image animation techniques primarily focus on specific domains such as faces or human poses, making them difficult to generalize to open domains. Several recent I2V frameworks based on diffusion models can generate dynamic content for open domain images but fail to maintain fidelity. We found that two main factors of low fidelity are the loss of image details and the noise prediction biases during the denoising process. To this end, we propose an effective method that can be applied to mainstream video diffusion models. This method achieves high fidelity based on supplementing more precise image information and noise rectification. Specifically, given a specified image, our method first adds noise to the input image latent to keep more details, then denoises the noisy latent with proper rectification to alleviate the noise prediction biases. Our method is tuning-free and plug-and-play. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving the fidelity of generated videos. For more image-to-video generated results, please refer to the project website: https://noise-rectification.github.io.

This paper develops a novel rating-based reinforcement learning approach that uses human ratings to obtain human guidance in reinforcement learning. Different from the existing preference-based and ranking-based reinforcement learning paradigms, based on human relative preferences over sample pairs, the proposed rating-based reinforcement learning approach is based on human evaluation of individual trajectories without relative comparisons between sample pairs. The rating-based reinforcement learning approach builds on a new prediction model for human ratings and a novel multi-class loss function. We conduct several experimental studies based on synthetic ratings and real human ratings to evaluate the effectiveness and benefits of the new rating-based reinforcement learning approach.

We present a novel self-supervised algorithm named MotionHint for monocular visual odometry (VO) that takes motion constraints into account. A key aspect of our approach is to use an appropriate motion model that can help existing self-supervised monocular VO (SSM-VO) algorithms to overcome issues related to the local minima within their self-supervised loss functions. The motion model is expressed with a neural network named PPnet. It is trained to coarsely predict the next pose of the camera and the uncertainty of this prediction. Our self-supervised approach combines the original loss and the motion loss, which is the weighted difference between the prediction and the generated ego-motion. Taking two existing SSM-VO systems as our baseline, we evaluate our MotionHint algorithm on the standard KITTI benchmark. Experimental results show that our MotionHint algorithm can be easily applied to existing open-sourced state-of-the-art SSM-VO systems to greatly improve the performance by reducing the resulting ATE by up to 28.73%.

Knowledge distillation aims to train a compact student network using soft supervision from a larger teacher network and hard supervision from ground truths. However, determining an optimal knowledge fusion ratio that balances these supervisory signals remains challenging. Prior methods generally resort to a constant or heuristic-based fusion ratio, which often falls short of a proper balance. In this study, we introduce a novel adaptive method for learning a sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio, exploiting both the correctness of teacher and student, as well as how well the student mimics the teacher on each sample. Our method naturally leads to the intra-sample trilateral geometric relations among the student prediction (S), teacher prediction (T), and ground truth (G). To counterbalance the impact of outliers, we further extend to the inter-sample relations, incorporating the teacher's global average prediction T for samples within the same class. A simple neural network then learns the implicit mapping from the intra- and inter-sample relations to an adaptive, sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio in a bilevel-optimization manner. Our approach provides a simple, practical, and adaptable solution for knowledge distillation that can be employed across various architectures and model sizes. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over other loss re-weighting methods on image classification, attack detection, and click-through rate prediction.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

This paper introduces a method for realistic kinetic typography that generates user-preferred animatable 'text content'. We draw on recent advances in guided video diffusion models to achieve visually-pleasing text appearances. To do this, we first construct a kinetic typography dataset, comprising about 600K videos. Our dataset is made from a variety of combinations in 584 templates designed by professional motion graphics designers and involves changing each letter's position, glyph, and size (i.e., flying, glitches, chromatic aberration, reflecting effects, etc.). Next, we propose a video diffusion model for kinetic typography. For this, there are three requirements: aesthetic appearances, motion effects, and readable letters. This paper identifies the requirements. For this, we present static and dynamic captions used as spatial and temporal guidance of a video diffusion model, respectively. The static caption describes the overall appearance of the video, such as colors, texture and glyph which represent a shape of each letter. The dynamic caption accounts for the movements of letters and backgrounds. We add one more guidance with zero convolution to determine which text content should be visible in the video. We apply the zero convolution to the text content, and impose it on the diffusion model. Lastly, our glyph loss, only minimizing a difference between the predicted word and its ground-truth, is proposed to make the prediction letters readable. Experiments show that our model generates kinetic typography videos with legible and artistic letter motions based on text prompts.

This paper describes the architecture and systems built towards solving the SemEval 2023 Task 2: MultiCoNER II (Multilingual Complex Named Entity Recognition) [1]. We evaluate two approaches (a) a traditional Conditional Random Fields model and (b) a Large Language Model (LLM) fine-tuned with a customized head and compare the two approaches. The novel ideas explored are: 1) Decaying auxiliary loss (with residual) - where we train the model on an auxiliary task of Coarse-Grained NER and include this task as a part of the loss function 2) Triplet token blending - where we explore ways of blending the embeddings of neighboring tokens in the final NER layer prior to prediction 3) Task-optimal heads - where we explore a variety of custom heads and learning rates for the final layer of the LLM. We also explore multiple LLMs including GPT-3 and experiment with a variety of dropout and other hyperparameter settings before arriving at our final model which achieves micro & macro f1 of 0.85/0.84 (on dev) and 0.67/0.61 on the test data . We show that while pre-trained LLMs, by themselves, bring about a large improvement in scores as compared to traditional models, we also demonstrate that tangible improvements to the Macro-F1 score can be made by augmenting the LLM with additional feature/loss/model engineering techniques described above.

We introduce Robust Exploration via Clustering-based Online Density Estimation (RECODE), a non-parametric method for novelty-based exploration that estimates visitation counts for clusters of states based on their similarity in a chosen embedding space. By adapting classical clustering to the nonstationary setting of Deep RL, RECODE can efficiently track state visitation counts over thousands of episodes. We further propose a novel generalization of the inverse dynamics loss, which leverages masked transformer architectures for multi-step prediction; which in conjunction with RECODE achieves a new state-of-the-art in a suite of challenging 3D-exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8. RECODE also sets new state-of-the-art in hard exploration Atari games, and is the first agent to reach the end screen in "Pitfall!".

Unified visual grounding pursues a simple and generic technical route to leverage multi-task data with less task-specific design. The most advanced methods typically present boxes and masks as vertex sequences to model referring detection and segmentation as an autoregressive sequential vertex generation paradigm. However, generating high-dimensional vertex sequences sequentially is error-prone because the upstream of the sequence remains static and cannot be refined based on downstream vertex information, even if there is a significant location gap. Besides, with limited vertexes, the inferior fitting of objects with complex contours restricts the performance upper bound. To deal with this dilemma, we propose a parallel vertex generation paradigm for superior high-dimension scalability with a diffusion model by simply modifying the noise dimension. An intuitive materialization of our paradigm is Parallel Vertex Diffusion (PVD) to directly set vertex coordinates as the generation target and use a diffusion model to train and infer. We claim that it has two flaws: (1) unnormalized coordinate caused a high variance of loss value; (2) the original training objective of PVD only considers point consistency but ignores geometry consistency. To solve the first flaw, Center Anchor Mechanism (CAM) is designed to convert coordinates as normalized offset values to stabilize the training loss value. For the second flaw, Angle summation loss (ASL) is designed to constrain the geometry difference of prediction and ground truth vertexes for geometry-level consistency. Empirical results show that our PVD achieves state-of-the-art in both referring detection and segmentation, and our paradigm is more scalable and efficient than sequential vertex generation with high-dimension data.

Machine learning frameworks such as graph neural networks typically rely on a given, fixed graph to exploit relational inductive biases and thus effectively learn from network data. However, when said graphs are (partially) unobserved, noisy, or dynamic, the problem of inferring graph structure from data becomes relevant. In this paper, we postulate a graph convolutional relationship between the observed and latent graphs, and formulate the graph learning task as a network inverse (deconvolution) problem. In lieu of eigendecomposition-based spectral methods or iterative optimization solutions, we unroll and truncate proximal gradient iterations to arrive at a parameterized neural network architecture that we call a Graph Deconvolution Network (GDN). GDNs can learn a distribution of graphs in a supervised fashion, perform link prediction or edge-weight regression tasks by adapting the loss function, and they are inherently inductive. We corroborate GDN's superior graph recovery performance and its generalization to larger graphs using synthetic data in supervised settings. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness and representation power of GDNs on real world neuroimaging and social network datasets.

Sparsely activated models (SAMs), such as Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), can easily scale to have outrageously large amounts of parameters without significant increase in computational cost. However, SAMs are reported to be parameter inefficient such that larger models do not always lead to better performance. While most on-going research focuses on improving SAMs models by exploring methods of routing inputs to experts, our analysis reveals that such research might not lead to the solution we expect, i.e., the commonly-used routing methods based on gating mechanisms do not work better than randomly routing inputs to experts. In this paper, we propose a new expert-based model, THOR (Transformer witH StOchastic ExpeRts). Unlike classic expert-based models, such as the Switch Transformer, experts in THOR are randomly activated for each input during training and inference. THOR models are trained using a consistency regularized loss, where experts learn not only from training data but also from other experts as teachers, such that all the experts make consistent predictions. We validate the effectiveness of THOR on machine translation tasks. Results show that THOR models are more parameter efficient in that they significantly outperform the Transformer and MoE models across various settings. For example, in multilingual translation, THOR outperforms the Switch Transformer by 2 BLEU scores, and obtains the same BLEU score as that of a state-of-the-art MoE model that is 18 times larger. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/microsoft/Stochastic-Mixture-of-Experts.

Among adversarial attacks against sequential recommender systems, model extraction attacks represent a method to attack sequential recommendation models without prior knowledge. Existing research has primarily concentrated on the adversary's execution of black-box attacks through data-free model extraction. However, a significant gap remains in the literature concerning the development of surrogate models by adversaries with access to few-shot raw data (10\% even less). That is, the challenge of how to construct a surrogate model with high functional similarity within the context of few-shot data scenarios remains an issue that requires resolution.This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel few-shot model extraction framework against sequential recommenders, which is designed to construct a superior surrogate model with the utilization of few-shot data. The proposed few-shot model extraction framework is comprised of two components: an autoregressive augmentation generation strategy and a bidirectional repair loss-facilitated model distillation procedure. Specifically, to generate synthetic data that closely approximate the distribution of raw data, autoregressive augmentation generation strategy integrates a probabilistic interaction sampler to extract inherent dependencies and a synthesis determinant signal module to characterize user behavioral patterns. Subsequently, bidirectional repair loss, which target the discrepancies between the recommendation lists, is designed as auxiliary loss to rectify erroneous predictions from surrogate models, transferring knowledge from the victim model to the surrogate model effectively. Experiments on three datasets show that the proposed few-shot model extraction framework yields superior surrogate models.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

End-to-end scene text spotting, which aims to read the text in natural images, has garnered significant attention in recent years. However, recent state-of-the-art methods usually incorporate detection and recognition simply by sharing the backbone, which does not directly take advantage of the feature interaction between the two tasks. In this paper, we propose a new end-to-end scene text spotting framework termed SwinTextSpotter v2, which seeks to find a better synergy between text detection and recognition. Specifically, we enhance the relationship between two tasks using novel Recognition Conversion and Recognition Alignment modules. Recognition Conversion explicitly guides text localization through recognition loss, while Recognition Alignment dynamically extracts text features for recognition through the detection predictions. This simple yet effective design results in a concise framework that requires neither an additional rectification module nor character-level annotations for the arbitrarily-shaped text. Furthermore, the parameters of the detector are greatly reduced without performance degradation by introducing a Box Selection Schedule. Qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that SwinTextSpotter v2 achieved state-of-the-art performance on various multilingual (English, Chinese, and Vietnamese) benchmarks. The code will be available at https://github.com/mxin262/SwinTextSpotterv2{SwinTextSpotter v2}.

Image classification is one of the most important areas in computer vision. Hierarchical multi-label classification applies when a multi-class image classification problem is arranged into smaller ones based upon a hierarchy or taxonomy. Thus, hierarchical classification modes generally provide multiple class predictions on each instance, whereby these are expected to reflect the structure of image classes as related to one another. In this paper, we propose a multi-label capsule network (ML-CapsNet) for hierarchical classification. Our ML-CapsNet predicts multiple image classes based on a hierarchical class-label tree structure. To this end, we present a loss function that takes into account the multi-label predictions of the network. As a result, the training approach for our ML-CapsNet uses a coarse to fine paradigm while maintaining consistency with the structure in the classification levels in the label-hierarchy. We also perform experiments using widely available datasets and compare the model with alternatives elsewhere in the literature. In our experiments, our ML-CapsNet yields a margin of improvement with respect to these alternative methods.

Fake engagement is one of the significant problems in Online Social Networks (OSNs) which is used to increase the popularity of an account in an inorganic manner. The detection of fake engagement is crucial because it leads to loss of money for businesses, wrong audience targeting in advertising, wrong product predictions systems, and unhealthy social network environment. This study is related with the detection of fake and automated accounts which leads to fake engagement on Instagram. Prior to this work, there were no publicly available dataset for fake and automated accounts. For this purpose, two datasets have been published for the detection of fake and automated accounts. For the detection of these accounts, machine learning algorithms like Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks are applied. Additionally, for the detection of automated accounts, cost sensitive genetic algorithm is proposed to handle the unnatural bias in the dataset. To deal with the unevenness problem in the fake dataset, Smote-nc algorithm is implemented. For the automated and fake account detection datasets, 86% and 96% classification accuracies are obtained, respectively.

We present DeepSeek-V3, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language model with 671B total parameters with 37B activated for each token. To achieve efficient inference and cost-effective training, DeepSeek-V3 adopts Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) and DeepSeekMoE architectures, which were thoroughly validated in DeepSeek-V2. Furthermore, DeepSeek-V3 pioneers an auxiliary-loss-free strategy for load balancing and sets a multi-token prediction training objective for stronger performance. We pre-train DeepSeek-V3 on 14.8 trillion diverse and high-quality tokens, followed by Supervised Fine-Tuning and Reinforcement Learning stages to fully harness its capabilities. Comprehensive evaluations reveal that DeepSeek-V3 outperforms other open-source models and achieves performance comparable to leading closed-source models. Despite its excellent performance, DeepSeek-V3 requires only 2.788M H800 GPU hours for its full training. In addition, its training process is remarkably stable. Throughout the entire training process, we did not experience any irrecoverable loss spikes or perform any rollbacks. The model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V3.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Within the context of autonomous driving, encountering unknown objects becomes inevitable during deployment in the open world. Therefore, it is crucial to equip standard semantic segmentation models with anomaly awareness. Many previous approaches have utilized synthetic out-of-distribution (OoD) data augmentation to tackle this problem. In this work, we advance the OoD synthesis process by reducing the domain gap between the OoD data and driving scenes, effectively mitigating the style difference that might otherwise act as an obvious shortcut during training. Additionally, we propose a simple fine-tuning loss that effectively induces a pre-trained semantic segmentation model to generate a ``none of the given classes" prediction, leveraging per-pixel OoD scores for anomaly segmentation. With minimal fine-tuning effort, our pipeline enables the use of pre-trained models for anomaly segmentation while maintaining the performance on the original task.

Label Smoothing (LS) is widely adopted to curb overconfidence in neural network predictions and enhance generalization. However, previous research shows that LS can force feature representations into excessively tight clusters, eroding intra-class distinctions. More recent findings suggest that LS also induces overconfidence in misclassifications, yet the precise mechanism remained unclear. In this work, we decompose the loss term introduced by LS, revealing two key components: (i) a regularization term that functions only when the prediction is correct, and (ii) an error-enhancement term that emerges under misclassifications. This latter term compels the model to reinforce incorrect predictions with exaggerated certainty, further collapsing the feature space. To address these issues, we propose Max Suppression (MaxSup), which uniformly applies the intended regularization to both correct and incorrect predictions by penalizing the top-1 logit instead of the ground-truth logit. Through feature analyses, we show that MaxSup restores intra-class variation and sharpens inter-class boundaries. Extensive experiments on image classification and downstream tasks confirm that MaxSup is a more robust alternative to LS. Code is available at: https://github.com/ZhouYuxuanYX/Maximum-Suppression-Regularization.

AI-generated text detection plays an increasingly important role in various fields. In this study, we developed an efficient AI-generated text detection model based on the BERT algorithm, which provides new ideas and methods for solving related problems. In the data preprocessing stage, a series of steps were taken to process the text, including operations such as converting to lowercase, word splitting, removing stop words, stemming extraction, removing digits, and eliminating redundant spaces, to ensure data quality and accuracy. By dividing the dataset into a training set and a test set in the ratio of 60% and 40%, and observing the changes in the accuracy and loss values during the training process, we found that the model performed well during the training process. The accuracy increases steadily from the initial 94.78% to 99.72%, while the loss value decreases from 0.261 to 0.021 and converges gradually, which indicates that the BERT model is able to detect AI-generated text with high accuracy and the prediction results are gradually approaching the real classification results. Further analysis of the results of the training and test sets reveals that in terms of loss value, the average loss of the training set is 0.0565, while the average loss of the test set is 0.0917, showing a slightly higher loss value. As for the accuracy, the average accuracy of the training set reaches 98.1%, while the average accuracy of the test set is 97.71%, which is not much different from each other, indicating that the model has good generalisation ability. In conclusion, the AI-generated text detection model based on the BERT algorithm proposed in this study shows high accuracy and stability in experiments, providing an effective solution for related fields.

Text-to-image diffusion models suffer from the risk of generating outdated, copyrighted, incorrect, and biased content. While previous methods have mitigated the issues on a small scale, it is essential to handle them simultaneously in larger-scale real-world scenarios. We propose a two-stage method, Editing Massive Concepts In Diffusion Models (EMCID). The first stage performs memory optimization for each individual concept with dual self-distillation from text alignment loss and diffusion noise prediction loss. The second stage conducts massive concept editing with multi-layer, closed form model editing. We further propose a comprehensive benchmark, named ImageNet Concept Editing Benchmark (ICEB), for evaluating massive concept editing for T2I models with two subtasks, free-form prompts, massive concept categories, and extensive evaluation metrics. Extensive experiments conducted on our proposed benchmark and previous benchmarks demonstrate the superior scalability of EMCID for editing up to 1,000 concepts, providing a practical approach for fast adjustment and re-deployment of T2I diffusion models in real-world applications.

Curvilinear object segmentation is critical for many applications. However, manually annotating curvilinear objects is very time-consuming and error-prone, yielding insufficiently available annotated datasets for existing supervised methods and domain adaptation methods. This paper proposes a self-supervised curvilinear object segmentation method that learns robust and distinctive features from fractals and unlabeled images (FreeCOS). The key contributions include a novel Fractal-FDA synthesis (FFS) module and a geometric information alignment (GIA) approach. FFS generates curvilinear structures based on the parametric Fractal L-system and integrates the generated structures into unlabeled images to obtain synthetic training images via Fourier Domain Adaptation. GIA reduces the intensity differences between the synthetic and unlabeled images by comparing the intensity order of a given pixel to the values of its nearby neighbors. Such image alignment can explicitly remove the dependency on absolute intensity values and enhance the inherent geometric characteristics which are common in both synthetic and real images. In addition, GIA aligns features of synthetic and real images via the prediction space adaptation loss (PSAL) and the curvilinear mask contrastive loss (CMCL). Extensive experimental results on four public datasets, i.e., XCAD, DRIVE, STARE and CrackTree demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art unsupervised methods, self-supervised methods and traditional methods by a large margin. The source code of this work is available at https://github.com/TY-Shi/FreeCOS.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

Humans view the world through many sensory channels, e.g., the long-wavelength light channel, viewed by the left eye, or the high-frequency vibrations channel, heard by the right ear. Each view is noisy and incomplete, but important factors, such as physics, geometry, and semantics, tend to be shared between all views (e.g., a "dog" can be seen, heard, and felt). We investigate the classic hypothesis that a powerful representation is one that models view-invariant factors. We study this hypothesis under the framework of multiview contrastive learning, where we learn a representation that aims to maximize mutual information between different views of the same scene but is otherwise compact. Our approach scales to any number of views, and is view-agnostic. We analyze key properties of the approach that make it work, finding that the contrastive loss outperforms a popular alternative based on cross-view prediction, and that the more views we learn from, the better the resulting representation captures underlying scene semantics. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on image and video unsupervised learning benchmarks. Code is released at: http://github.com/HobbitLong/CMC/.

We investigate the relationship between the geometry of token embeddings and their role in the next token prediction within transformer models. An important aspect of this connection uses the notion of empirical measure, which encodes the distribution of token point clouds across transformer layers and drives the evolution of token representations in the mean-field interacting picture. We use metrics such as intrinsic dimension, neighborhood overlap, and cosine similarity to observationally probe these empirical measures across layers. To validate our approach, we compare these metrics to a dataset where the tokens are shuffled, which disrupts the syntactic and semantic structure. Our findings reveal a correlation between the geometric properties of token embeddings and the cross-entropy loss of next token predictions, implying that prompts with higher loss values have tokens represented in higher-dimensional spaces.

Modern detection transformers (DETRs) use a set of object queries to predict a list of bounding boxes, sort them by their classification confidence scores, and select the top-ranked predictions as the final detection results for the given input image. A highly performant object detector requires accurate ranking for the bounding box predictions. For DETR-based detectors, the top-ranked bounding boxes suffer from less accurate localization quality due to the misalignment between classification scores and localization accuracy, thus impeding the construction of high-quality detectors. In this work, we introduce a simple and highly performant DETR-based object detector by proposing a series of rank-oriented designs, combinedly called Rank-DETR. Our key contributions include: (i) a rank-oriented architecture design that can prompt positive predictions and suppress the negative ones to ensure lower false positive rates, as well as (ii) a rank-oriented loss function and matching cost design that prioritizes predictions of more accurate localization accuracy during ranking to boost the AP under high IoU thresholds. We apply our method to improve the recent SOTA methods (e.g., H-DETR and DINO-DETR) and report strong COCO object detection results when using different backbones such as ResNet-50, Swin-T, and Swin-L, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/Rank-DETR.

Lightweight direct Time-of-Flight (dToF) sensors are ideal for 3D sensing on mobile devices. However, due to the manufacturing constraints of compact devices and the inherent physical principles of imaging, dToF depth maps are sparse and noisy. In this paper, we propose a novel video depth completion method, called SVDC, by fusing the sparse dToF data with the corresponding RGB guidance. Our method employs a multi-frame fusion scheme to mitigate the spatial ambiguity resulting from the sparse dToF imaging. Misalignment between consecutive frames during multi-frame fusion could cause blending between object edges and the background, which results in a loss of detail. To address this, we introduce an adaptive frequency selective fusion (AFSF) module, which automatically selects convolution kernel sizes to fuse multi-frame features. Our AFSF utilizes a channel-spatial enhancement attention (CSEA) module to enhance features and generates an attention map as fusion weights. The AFSF ensures edge detail recovery while suppressing high-frequency noise in smooth regions. To further enhance temporal consistency, We propose a cross-window consistency loss to ensure consistent predictions across different windows, effectively reducing flickering. Our proposed SVDC achieves optimal accuracy and consistency on the TartanAir and Dynamic Replica datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/Lan1eve/SVDC.

We study neural network loss landscapes through the lens of mode connectivity, the observation that minimizers of neural networks retrieved via training on a dataset are connected via simple paths of low loss. Specifically, we ask the following question: are minimizers that rely on different mechanisms for making their predictions connected via simple paths of low loss? We provide a definition of mechanistic similarity as shared invariances to input transformations and demonstrate that lack of linear connectivity between two models implies they use dissimilar mechanisms for making their predictions. Relevant to practice, this result helps us demonstrate that naive fine-tuning on a downstream dataset can fail to alter a model's mechanisms, e.g., fine-tuning can fail to eliminate a model's reliance on spurious attributes. Our analysis also motivates a method for targeted alteration of a model's mechanisms, named connectivity-based fine-tuning (CBFT), which we analyze using several synthetic datasets for the task of reducing a model's reliance on spurious attributes.

We introduce Ev-TTA, a simple, effective test-time adaptation algorithm for event-based object recognition. While event cameras are proposed to provide measurements of scenes with fast motions or drastic illumination changes, many existing event-based recognition algorithms suffer from performance deterioration under extreme conditions due to significant domain shifts. Ev-TTA mitigates the severe domain gaps by fine-tuning the pre-trained classifiers during the test phase using loss functions inspired by the spatio-temporal characteristics of events. Since the event data is a temporal stream of measurements, our loss function enforces similar predictions for adjacent events to quickly adapt to the changed environment online. Also, we utilize the spatial correlations between two polarities of events to handle noise under extreme illumination, where different polarities of events exhibit distinctive noise distributions. Ev-TTA demonstrates a large amount of performance gain on a wide range of event-based object recognition tasks without extensive additional training. Our formulation can be successfully applied regardless of input representations and further extended into regression tasks. We expect Ev-TTA to provide the key technique to deploy event-based vision algorithms in challenging real-world applications where significant domain shift is inevitable.

We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.

Domain adaptation (DA) has drawn high interest for its capacity to adapt a model trained on labeled source data to perform well on unlabeled or weakly labeled target data from a different domain. Most common DA techniques require concurrent access to the input images of both the source and target domains. However, in practice, privacy concerns often impede the availability of source images in the adaptation phase. This is a very frequent DA scenario in medical imaging, where, for instance, the source and target images could come from different clinical sites. We introduce a source-free domain adaptation for image segmentation. Our formulation is based on minimizing a label-free entropy loss defined over target-domain data, which we further guide with a domain-invariant prior on the segmentation regions. Many priors can be derived from anatomical information. Here, a class ratio prior is estimated from anatomical knowledge and integrated in the form of a Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence in our overall loss function. Furthermore, we motivate our overall loss with an interesting link to maximizing the mutual information between the target images and their label predictions. We show the effectiveness of our prior aware entropy minimization in a variety of domain-adaptation scenarios, with different modalities and applications, including spine, prostate, and cardiac segmentation. Our method yields comparable results to several state of the art adaptation techniques, despite having access to much less information, as the source images are entirely absent in our adaptation phase. Our straightforward adaptation strategy uses only one network, contrary to popular adversarial techniques, which are not applicable to a source-free DA setting. Our framework can be readily used in a breadth of segmentation problems, and our code is publicly available: https://github.com/mathilde-b/SFDA

Masked Image Modeling (MIM) offers a promising approach to self-supervised representation learning, however existing MIM models still lag behind the state-of-the-art. In this paper, we systematically analyze target representations, loss functions, and architectures, to introduce CAPI - a novel pure-MIM framework that relies on the prediction of latent clusterings. Our approach leverages a clustering-based loss, which is stable to train, and exhibits promising scaling properties. Our ViT-L backbone, CAPI, achieves 83.8% accuracy on ImageNet and 32.1% mIoU on ADE20K with simple linear probes, substantially outperforming previous MIM methods and approaching the performance of the current state-of-the-art, DINOv2. We release all our code and models.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

The widespread enthusiasm for deep learning has recently expanded into the domain of tabular data. Recognizing that the advancement in deep tabular methods is often inspired by classical methods, e.g., integration of nearest neighbors into neural networks, we investigate whether these classical methods can be revitalized with modern techniques. We revisit a differentiable version of K-nearest neighbors (KNN) -- Neighbourhood Components Analysis (NCA) -- originally designed to learn a linear projection to capture semantic similarities between instances, and seek to gradually add modern deep learning techniques on top. Surprisingly, our implementation of NCA using SGD and without dimensionality reduction already achieves decent performance on tabular data, in contrast to the results of using existing toolboxes like scikit-learn. Further equipping NCA with deep representations and additional training stochasticity significantly enhances its capability, being on par with the leading tree-based method CatBoost and outperforming existing deep tabular models in both classification and regression tasks on 300 datasets. We conclude our paper by analyzing the factors behind these improvements, including loss functions, prediction strategies, and deep architectures. The code is available at https://github.com/qile2000/LAMDA-TALENT.

This paper proposes a neural network architecture and training scheme to learn the start and end time of sound events (strong labels) in an audio recording given just the list of sound events existing in the audio without time information (weak labels). We achieve this by using a stacked convolutional and recurrent neural network with two prediction layers in sequence one for the strong followed by the weak label. The network is trained using frame-wise log mel-band energy as the input audio feature, and weak labels provided in the dataset as labels for the weak label prediction layer. Strong labels are generated by replicating the weak labels as many number of times as the frames in the input audio feature, and used for strong label layer during training. We propose to control what the network learns from the weak and strong labels by different weighting for the loss computed in the two prediction layers. The proposed method is evaluated on a publicly available dataset of 155 hours with 17 sound event classes. The method achieves the best error rate of 0.84 for strong labels and F-score of 43.3% for weak labels on the unseen test split.

Intrinsic decomposition is a fundamental mid-level vision problem that plays a crucial role in various inverse rendering and computational photography pipelines. Generating highly accurate intrinsic decompositions is an inherently under-constrained task that requires precisely estimating continuous-valued shading and albedo. In this work, we achieve high-resolution intrinsic decomposition by breaking the problem into two parts. First, we present a dense ordinal shading formulation using a shift- and scale-invariant loss in order to estimate ordinal shading cues without restricting the predictions to obey the intrinsic model. We then combine low- and high-resolution ordinal estimations using a second network to generate a shading estimate with both global coherency and local details. We encourage the model to learn an accurate decomposition by computing losses on the estimated shading as well as the albedo implied by the intrinsic model. We develop a straightforward method for generating dense pseudo ground truth using our model's predictions and multi-illumination data, enabling generalization to in-the-wild imagery. We present an exhaustive qualitative and quantitative analysis of our predicted intrinsic components against state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we demonstrate the real-world applicability of our estimations by performing otherwise difficult editing tasks such as recoloring and relighting.

Modern machine learning requires system designers to specify aspects of the learning pipeline, such as losses, architectures, and optimizers. Meta-learning, or learning-to-learn, instead aims to learn those aspects, and promises to unlock greater capabilities with less manual effort. One particularly ambitious goal of meta-learning is to train general-purpose in-context learning algorithms from scratch, using only black-box models with minimal inductive bias. Such a model takes in training data, and produces test-set predictions across a wide range of problems, without any explicit definition of an inference model, training loss, or optimization algorithm. In this paper we show that Transformers and other black-box models can be meta-trained to act as general-purpose in-context learners. We characterize transitions between algorithms that generalize, algorithms that memorize, and algorithms that fail to meta-train at all, induced by changes in model size, number of tasks, and meta-optimization. We further show that the capabilities of meta-trained algorithms are bottlenecked by the accessible state size (memory) determining the next prediction, unlike standard models which are thought to be bottlenecked by parameter count. Finally, we propose practical interventions such as biasing the training distribution that improve the meta-training and meta-generalization of general-purpose in-context learning algorithms.

Recently, Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) has shown great success in rendering novel-view images of a given scene by learning an implicit representation with only posed RGB images. NeRF and relevant neural field methods (e.g., neural surface representation) typically optimize a point-wise loss and make point-wise predictions, where one data point corresponds to one pixel. Unfortunately, this line of research failed to use the collective supervision of distant pixels, although it is known that pixels in an image or scene can provide rich structural information. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to design a nonlocal multiplex training paradigm for NeRF and relevant neural field methods via a novel Stochastic Structural SIMilarity (S3IM) loss that processes multiple data points as a whole set instead of process multiple inputs independently. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the unreasonable effectiveness of S3IM in improving NeRF and neural surface representation for nearly free. The improvements of quality metrics can be particularly significant for those relatively difficult tasks: e.g., the test MSE loss unexpectedly drops by more than 90% for TensoRF and DVGO over eight novel view synthesis tasks; a 198% F-score gain and a 64% Chamfer L_{1} distance reduction for NeuS over eight surface reconstruction tasks. Moreover, S3IM is consistently robust even with sparse inputs, corrupted images, and dynamic scenes.

Self-distillation (SD) is the process of first training a teacher model and then using its predictions to train a student model with the same architecture. Specifically, the student's objective function is big(xi*ell(teacher's predictions, student's predictions) + (1-xi)*ell(given labels, student's predictions)big), where ell is some loss function and xi is some parameter in [0,1]. Empirically, SD has been observed to provide performance gains in several settings. In this paper, we theoretically characterize the effect of SD in two supervised learning problems with noisy labels. We first analyze SD for regularized linear regression and show that in the high label noise regime, the optimal value of xi that minimizes the expected error in estimating the ground truth parameter is surprisingly greater than 1. Empirically, we show that xi > 1 works better than xi leq 1 even with the cross-entropy loss for several classification datasets when 50\% or 30\% of the labels are corrupted. Further, we quantify when optimal SD is better than optimal regularization. Next, we analyze SD in the case of logistic regression for binary classification with random label corruption and quantify the range of label corruption in which the student outperforms the teacher in terms of accuracy. To our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind for the cross-entropy loss.

The information bottleneck (IB) approach is popular to improve the generalization, robustness and explainability of deep neural networks. Essentially, it aims to find a minimum sufficient representation t by striking a trade-off between a compression term I(x;t) and a prediction term I(y;t), where I(cdot;cdot) refers to the mutual information (MI). MI is for the IB for the most part expressed in terms of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which in the regression case corresponds to prediction based on mean squared error (MSE) loss with Gaussian assumption and compression approximated by variational inference. In this paper, we study the IB principle for the regression problem and develop a new way to parameterize the IB with deep neural networks by exploiting favorable properties of the Cauchy-Schwarz (CS) divergence. By doing so, we move away from MSE-based regression and ease estimation by avoiding variational approximations or distributional assumptions. We investigate the improved generalization ability of our proposed CS-IB and demonstrate strong adversarial robustness guarantees. We demonstrate its superior performance on six real-world regression tasks over other popular deep IB approaches. We additionally observe that the solutions discovered by CS-IB always achieve the best trade-off between prediction accuracy and compression ratio in the information plane. The code is available at https://github.com/SJYuCNEL/Cauchy-Schwarz-Information-Bottleneck.

Conventional wisdom suggests that neural network predictions tend to be unpredictable and overconfident when faced with out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Our work reassesses this assumption for neural networks with high-dimensional inputs. Rather than extrapolating in arbitrary ways, we observe that neural network predictions often tend towards a constant value as input data becomes increasingly OOD. Moreover, we find that this value often closely approximates the optimal constant solution (OCS), i.e., the prediction that minimizes the average loss over the training data without observing the input. We present results showing this phenomenon across 8 datasets with different distributional shifts (including CIFAR10-C and ImageNet-R, S), different loss functions (cross entropy, MSE, and Gaussian NLL), and different architectures (CNNs and transformers). Furthermore, we present an explanation for this behavior, which we first validate empirically and then study theoretically in a simplified setting involving deep homogeneous networks with ReLU activations. Finally, we show how one can leverage our insights in practice to enable risk-sensitive decision-making in the presence of OOD inputs.

This paper considers a novel application of deep AUC maximization (DAM) for multi-instance learning (MIL), in which a single class label is assigned to a bag of instances (e.g., multiple 2D slices of a CT scan for a patient). We address a neglected yet non-negligible computational challenge of MIL in the context of DAM, i.e., bag size is too large to be loaded into {GPU} memory for backpropagation, which is required by the standard pooling methods of MIL. To tackle this challenge, we propose variance-reduced stochastic pooling methods in the spirit of stochastic optimization by formulating the loss function over the pooled prediction as a multi-level compositional function. By synthesizing techniques from stochastic compositional optimization and non-convex min-max optimization, we propose a unified and provable muli-instance DAM (MIDAM) algorithm with stochastic smoothed-max pooling or stochastic attention-based pooling, which only samples a few instances for each bag to compute a stochastic gradient estimator and to update the model parameter. We establish a similar convergence rate of the proposed MIDAM algorithm as the state-of-the-art DAM algorithms. Our extensive experiments on conventional MIL datasets and medical datasets demonstrate the superiority of our MIDAM algorithm.

Generating talking person portraits with arbitrary speech audio is a crucial problem in the field of digital human and metaverse. A modern talking face generation method is expected to achieve the goals of generalized audio-lip synchronization, good video quality, and high system efficiency. Recently, neural radiance field (NeRF) has become a popular rendering technique in this field since it could achieve high-fidelity and 3D-consistent talking face generation with a few-minute-long training video. However, there still exist several challenges for NeRF-based methods: 1) as for the lip synchronization, it is hard to generate a long facial motion sequence of high temporal consistency and audio-lip accuracy; 2) as for the video quality, due to the limited data used to train the renderer, it is vulnerable to out-of-domain input condition and produce bad rendering results occasionally; 3) as for the system efficiency, the slow training and inference speed of the vanilla NeRF severely obstruct its usage in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose GeneFace++ to handle these challenges by 1) utilizing the pitch contour as an auxiliary feature and introducing a temporal loss in the facial motion prediction process; 2) proposing a landmark locally linear embedding method to regulate the outliers in the predicted motion sequence to avoid robustness issues; 3) designing a computationally efficient NeRF-based motion-to-video renderer to achieves fast training and real-time inference. With these settings, GeneFace++ becomes the first NeRF-based method that achieves stable and real-time talking face generation with generalized audio-lip synchronization. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in terms of subjective and objective evaluation. Video samples are available at https://genefaceplusplus.github.io .

The main challenge in domain generalization (DG) is to handle the distribution shift problem that lies between the training and test data. Recent studies suggest that test-time training (TTT), which adapts the learned model with test data, might be a promising solution to the problem. Generally, a TTT strategy hinges its performance on two main factors: selecting an appropriate auxiliary TTT task for updating and identifying reliable parameters to update during the test phase. Both previous arts and our experiments indicate that TTT may not improve but be detrimental to the learned model if those two factors are not properly considered. This work addresses those two factors by proposing an Improved Test-Time Adaptation (ITTA) method. First, instead of heuristically defining an auxiliary objective, we propose a learnable consistency loss for the TTT task, which contains learnable parameters that can be adjusted toward better alignment between our TTT task and the main prediction task. Second, we introduce additional adaptive parameters for the trained model, and we suggest only updating the adaptive parameters during the test phase. Through extensive experiments, we show that the proposed two strategies are beneficial for the learned model (see Figure 1), and ITTA could achieve superior performance to the current state-of-the-art methods on several DG benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/liangchen527/ITTA.

Recently two-stage detectors have surged ahead of single-shot detectors in the accuracy-vs-speed trade-off. Nevertheless single-shot detectors are immensely popular in embedded vision applications. This paper brings single-shot detectors up to the same level as current two-stage techniques. We do this by improving training for the state-of-the-art single-shot detector, RetinaNet, in three ways: integrating instance mask prediction for the first time, making the loss function adaptive and more stable, and including additional hard examples in training. We call the resulting augmented network RetinaMask. The detection component of RetinaMask has the same computational cost as the original RetinaNet, but is more accurate. COCO test-dev results are up to 41.4 mAP for RetinaMask-101 vs 39.1mAP for RetinaNet-101, while the runtime is the same during evaluation. Adding Group Normalization increases the performance of RetinaMask-101 to 41.7 mAP. Code is at:https://github.com/chengyangfu/retinamask

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

We present a new method that views object detection as a direct set prediction problem. Our approach streamlines the detection pipeline, effectively removing the need for many hand-designed components like a non-maximum suppression procedure or anchor generation that explicitly encode our prior knowledge about the task. The main ingredients of the new framework, called DEtection TRansformer or DETR, are a set-based global loss that forces unique predictions via bipartite matching, and a transformer encoder-decoder architecture. Given a fixed small set of learned object queries, DETR reasons about the relations of the objects and the global image context to directly output the final set of predictions in parallel. The new model is conceptually simple and does not require a specialized library, unlike many other modern detectors. DETR demonstrates accuracy and run-time performance on par with the well-established and highly-optimized Faster RCNN baseline on the challenging COCO object detection dataset. Moreover, DETR can be easily generalized to produce panoptic segmentation in a unified manner. We show that it significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Training code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/detr.

We introduce a novel sequential modeling approach which enables learning a Large Vision Model (LVM) without making use of any linguistic data. To do this, we define a common format, "visual sentences", in which we can represent raw images and videos as well as annotated data sources such as semantic segmentations and depth reconstructions without needing any meta-knowledge beyond the pixels. Once this wide variety of visual data (comprising 420 billion tokens) is represented as sequences, the model can be trained to minimize a cross-entropy loss for next token prediction. By training across various scales of model architecture and data diversity, we provide empirical evidence that our models scale effectively. Many different vision tasks can be solved by designing suitable visual prompts at test time.

Due to highly constrained computing power and memory, deploying 3D lidar-based detectors on edge devices equipped in autonomous vehicles and robots poses a crucial challenge. Being a convenient and straightforward model compression approach, Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) has been widely adopted in 2D vision tasks. However, applying it directly to 3D lidar-based tasks inevitably leads to performance degradation. As a remedy, we propose an effective PTQ method called LiDAR-PTQ, which is particularly curated for 3D lidar detection (both SPConv-based and SPConv-free). Our LiDAR-PTQ features three main components, (1) a sparsity-based calibration method to determine the initialization of quantization parameters, (2) a Task-guided Global Positive Loss (TGPL) to reduce the disparity between the final predictions before and after quantization, (3) an adaptive rounding-to-nearest operation to minimize the layerwise reconstruction error. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our LiDAR-PTQ can achieve state-of-the-art quantization performance when applied to CenterPoint (both Pillar-based and Voxel-based). To our knowledge, for the very first time in lidar-based 3D detection tasks, the PTQ INT8 model's accuracy is almost the same as the FP32 model while enjoying 3times inference speedup. Moreover, our LiDAR-PTQ is cost-effective being 30times faster than the quantization-aware training method. Code will be released at https://github.com/StiphyJay/LiDAR-PTQ.

Synthetic data (SIM) drawn from simulators have emerged as a popular alternative for training models where acquiring annotated real-world images is difficult. However, transferring models trained on synthetic images to real-world applications can be challenging due to appearance disparities. A commonly employed solution to counter this SIM2REAL gap is unsupervised domain adaptation, where models are trained using labeled SIM data and unlabeled REAL data. Mispredictions made by such SIM2REAL adapted models are often associated with miscalibration - stemming from overconfident predictions on real data. In this paper, we introduce AUGCAL, a simple training-time patch for unsupervised adaptation that improves SIM2REAL adapted models by - (1) reducing overall miscalibration, (2) reducing overconfidence in incorrect predictions and (3) improving confidence score reliability by better guiding misclassification detection - all while retaining or improving SIM2REAL performance. Given a base SIM2REAL adaptation algorithm, at training time, AUGCAL involves replacing vanilla SIM images with strongly augmented views (AUG intervention) and additionally optimizing for a training time calibration loss on augmented SIM predictions (CAL intervention). We motivate AUGCAL using a brief analytical justification of how to reduce miscalibration on unlabeled REAL data. Through our experiments, we empirically show the efficacy of AUGCAL across multiple adaptation methods, backbones, tasks and shifts.

Thanks to the large pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP, we can craft a zero-shot classifier by "prompt", e.g., the confidence score of an image being "[CLASS]" can be obtained by using the VLM provided similarity measure between the image and the prompt sentence "a photo of a [CLASS]". Therefore, prompt shows a great potential for fast adaptation of VLMs to downstream tasks if we fine-tune the prompt-based similarity measure. However, we find a common failure that improper fine-tuning may not only undermine the prompt's inherent prediction for the task-related classes, but also for other classes in the VLM vocabulary. Existing methods still address this problem by using traditional anti-overfitting techniques such as early stopping and data augmentation, which lack a principled solution specific to prompt. We present Prompt-aligned Gradient, dubbed ProGrad, to prevent prompt tuning from forgetting the the general knowledge learned from VLMs. In particular, ProGrad only updates the prompt whose gradient is aligned (or non-conflicting) to the "general direction", which is represented as the gradient of the KL loss of the pre-defined prompt prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate the stronger few-shot generalization ability of ProGrad over state-of-the-art prompt tuning methods. Codes are available at https://github.com/BeierZhu/Prompt-align.

Recent end-to-end multi-object detectors simplify the inference pipeline by removing hand-crafted processes such as non-maximum suppression (NMS). However, during training, they still heavily rely on heuristics and hand-crafted processes which deteriorate the reliability of the predicted confidence score. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to train an end-to-end multi-object detector consisting of only two terms: negative log-likelihood (NLL) and a regularization term. In doing so, the multi-object detection problem is treated as density estimation of the ground truth bounding boxes utilizing a regularized mixture density model. The proposed end-to-end multi-object Detection with a Regularized Mixture Model (D-RMM) is trained by minimizing the NLL with the proposed regularization term, maximum component maximization (MCM) loss, preventing duplicate predictions. Our method reduces the heuristics of the training process and improves the reliability of the predicted confidence score. Moreover, our D-RMM outperforms the previous end-to-end detectors on MS COCO dataset.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a sample efficient technique to obtain control policies, yet unavoidable modeling errors often lead performance deterioration. The model in MBRL is often solely fitted to reconstruct dynamics, state observations in particular, while the impact of model error on the policy is not captured by the training objective. This leads to a mismatch between the intended goal of MBRL, enabling good policy and value learning, and the target of the loss function employed in practice, future state prediction. Naive intuition would suggest that value-aware model learning would fix this problem and, indeed, several solutions to this objective mismatch problem have been proposed based on theoretical analysis. However, they tend to be inferior in practice to commonly used maximum likelihood (MLE) based approaches. In this paper we propose the Value-gradient weighted Model Learning (VaGraM), a novel method for value-aware model learning which improves the performance of MBRL in challenging settings, such as small model capacity and the presence of distracting state dimensions. We analyze both MLE and value-aware approaches and demonstrate how they fail to account for exploration and the behavior of function approximation when learning value-aware models and highlight the additional goals that must be met to stabilize optimization in the deep learning setting. We verify our analysis by showing that our loss function is able to achieve high returns on the Mujoco benchmark suite while being more robust than maximum likelihood based approaches.

Diffusion models are a powerful generative framework, but come with expensive inference. Existing acceleration methods often compromise image quality or fail under complex conditioning when operating in an extremely low-step regime. In this work, we propose a novel distillation framework tailored to enable high-fidelity, diverse sample generation using just one to three steps. Our approach comprises three key components: (i) Backward Distillation, which mitigates training-inference discrepancies by calibrating the student on its own backward trajectory; (ii) Shifted Reconstruction Loss that dynamically adapts knowledge transfer based on the current time step; and (iii) Noise Correction, an inference-time technique that enhances sample quality by addressing singularities in noise prediction. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our method outperforms existing competitors in quantitative metrics and human evaluations. Remarkably, it achieves performance comparable to the teacher model using only three denoising steps, enabling efficient high-quality generation.

In this paper, we present a novel end-to-end group collaborative learning network, termed GCoNet+, which can effectively and efficiently (250 fps) identify co-salient objects in natural scenes. The proposed GCoNet+ achieves the new state-of-the-art performance for co-salient object detection (CoSOD) through mining consensus representations based on the following two essential criteria: 1) intra-group compactness to better formulate the consistency among co-salient objects by capturing their inherent shared attributes using our novel group affinity module (GAM); 2) inter-group separability to effectively suppress the influence of noisy objects on the output by introducing our new group collaborating module (GCM) conditioning on the inconsistent consensus. To further improve the accuracy, we design a series of simple yet effective components as follows: i) a recurrent auxiliary classification module (RACM) promoting model learning at the semantic level; ii) a confidence enhancement module (CEM) assisting the model in improving the quality of the final predictions; and iii) a group-based symmetric triplet (GST) loss guiding the model to learn more discriminative features. Extensive experiments on three challenging benchmarks, i.e., CoCA, CoSOD3k, and CoSal2015, demonstrate that our GCoNet+ outperforms the existing 12 cutting-edge models. Code has been released at https://github.com/ZhengPeng7/GCoNet_plus.

Building Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems for code-switched speech has recently gained renewed attention due to the widespread use of speech technologies in multilingual communities worldwide. End-to-end ASR systems are a natural modeling choice due to their ease of use and superior performance in monolingual settings. However, it is well known that end-to-end systems require large amounts of labeled speech. In this work, we investigate improving code-switched ASR in low resource settings via data augmentation using code-switched text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. We propose two targeted techniques to effectively leverage TTS speech samples: 1) Mixup, an existing technique to create new training samples via linear interpolation of existing samples, applied to TTS and real speech samples, and 2) a new loss function, used in conjunction with TTS samples, to encourage code-switched predictions. We report significant improvements in ASR performance achieving absolute word error rate (WER) reductions of up to 5%, and measurable improvement in code switching using our proposed techniques on a Hindi-English code-switched ASR task.

Loss functions serve as the foundation of supervised learning and are often chosen prior to model development. To avoid potentially ad hoc choices of losses, statistical decision theory describes a desirable property for losses known as properness, which asserts that Bayes' rule is optimal. Recent works have sought to learn losses and models jointly. Existing methods do this by fitting an inverse canonical link function which monotonically maps R to [0,1] to estimate probabilities for binary problems. In this paper, we extend monotonicity to maps between R^{C-1} and the projected probability simplex Delta^{C-1} by using monotonicity of gradients of convex functions. We present {\sc LegendreTron} as a novel and practical method that jointly learns proper canonical losses and probabilities for multiclass problems. Tested on a benchmark of domains with up to 1,000 classes, our experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms the natural multiclass baseline under a t-test at 99% significance on all datasets with greater than 10 classes.

While language models have exceptional capabilities at text generation, they lack a natural inductive bias for emitting numbers and thus struggle in tasks involving reasoning over quantities, especially arithmetics. This has particular relevance in scientific datasets where combinations of text and numerical data are abundant. One fundamental limitation is the nature of the CE loss, which assumes a nominal (categorical) scale and thus cannot convey proximity between generated number tokens. As a remedy, we here present two versions of a number token loss. The first is based on an L_p loss between the ground truth token value and the weighted sum of the predicted class probabilities. The second loss minimizes the Wasserstein-1 distance between the distribution of the predicted output probabilities and the ground truth distribution. These regression-like losses can easily be added to any language model and extend the CE objective during training. We compare the proposed schemes on a mathematics dataset against existing tokenization, encoding, and decoding schemes for improving number representation in language models. Our results reveal a significant improvement in numerical accuracy when equipping a standard T5 model with the proposed loss schemes.

When training or evaluating deep learning models, two essential parts are picking the proper loss function and deciding on performance metrics. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the most common loss functions and metrics used across many different types of deep learning tasks, from general tasks such as regression and classification to more specific tasks in Computer Vision and Natural Language Processing. We introduce the formula for each loss and metric, discuss their strengths and limitations, and describe how these methods can be applied to various problems within deep learning. This work can serve as a reference for researchers and practitioners in the field, helping them make informed decisions when selecting the most appropriate loss function and performance metrics for their deep learning projects.

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

Despite being the standard loss function to train multi-class neural networks, the log-softmax has two potential limitations. First, it involves computations that scale linearly with the number of output classes, which can restrict the size of problems we are able to tackle with current hardware. Second, it remains unclear how close it matches the task loss such as the top-k error rate or other non-differentiable evaluation metrics which we aim to optimize ultimately. In this paper, we introduce an alternative classification loss function, the Z-loss, which is designed to address these two issues. Unlike the log-softmax, it has the desirable property of belonging to the spherical loss family (Vincent et al., 2015), a class of loss functions for which training can be performed very efficiently with a complexity independent of the number of output classes. We show experimentally that it significantly outperforms the other spherical loss functions previously investigated. Furthermore, we show on a word language modeling task that it also outperforms the log-softmax with respect to certain ranking scores, such as top-k scores, suggesting that the Z-loss has the flexibility to better match the task loss. These qualities thus makes the Z-loss an appealing candidate to train very efficiently large output networks such as word-language models or other extreme classification problems. On the One Billion Word (Chelba et al., 2014) dataset, we are able to train a model with the Z-loss 40 times faster than the log-softmax and more than 4 times faster than the hierarchical softmax.

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

Developers rely on code comments to document their work, track issues, and understand the source code. As such, comments provide valuable insights into developers' understanding of their code and describe their various intentions in writing the surrounding code. Recent research leverages natural language processing and deep learning to classify comments based on developers' intentions. However, such labelled data are often imbalanced, causing learning models to perform poorly. This work investigates the use of different weighting strategies of the loss function to mitigate the scarcity of certain classes in the dataset. In particular, various RoBERTa-based transformer models are fine-tuned by means of a hyperparameter search to identify their optimal parameter configurations. Additionally, we fine-tuned the transformers with different weighting strategies for the loss function to address class imbalances. Our approach outperforms the STACC baseline by 8.9 per cent on the NLBSE'25 Tool Competition dataset in terms of the average F1_c score, and exceeding the baseline approach in 17 out of 19 cases with a gain ranging from -5.0 to 38.2. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/moritzmock/NLBSE2025.

A number of computer vision deep regression approaches report improved results when adding a classification loss to the regression loss. Here, we explore why this is useful in practice and when it is beneficial. To do so, we start from precisely controlled dataset variations and data samplings and find that the effect of adding a classification loss is the most pronounced for regression with imbalanced data. We explain these empirical findings by formalizing the relation between the balanced and imbalanced regression losses. Finally, we show that our findings hold on two real imbalanced image datasets for depth estimation (NYUD2-DIR), and age estimation (IMDB-WIKI-DIR), and on the problem of imbalanced video progress prediction (Breakfast). Our main takeaway is: for a regression task, if the data sampling is imbalanced, then add a classification loss.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators without causing shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with a computationally feasible surrogate loss is a widely accepted approach for classification. Notably, the convexity and calibration (CC) properties of a loss function ensure consistency of ERM in maximizing accuracy, thereby offering a wide range of options for surrogate losses. In this article, we propose a novel ensemble method, namely EnsLoss, which extends the ensemble learning concept to combine loss functions within the ERM framework. A key feature of our method is the consideration on preserving the "legitimacy" of the combined losses, i.e., ensuring the CC properties. Specifically, we first transform the CC conditions of losses into loss-derivatives, thereby bypassing the need for explicit loss functions and directly generating calibrated loss-derivatives. Therefore, inspired by Dropout, EnsLoss enables loss ensembles through one training process with doubly stochastic gradient descent (i.e., random batch samples and random calibrated loss-derivatives). We theoretically establish the statistical consistency of our approach and provide insights into its benefits. The numerical effectiveness of EnsLoss compared to fixed loss methods is demonstrated through experiments on a broad range of 14 OpenML tabular datasets and 46 image datasets with various deep learning architectures. Python repository and source code are available on GitHub at https://github.com/statmlben/ensloss.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

In this paper, we study the predict-then-optimize problem where the output of a machine learning prediction task is used as the input of some downstream optimization problem, say, the objective coefficient vector of a linear program. The problem is also known as predictive analytics or contextual linear programming. The existing approaches largely suffer from either (i) optimization intractability (a non-convex objective function)/statistical inefficiency (a suboptimal generalization bound) or (ii) requiring strong condition(s) such as no constraint or loss calibration. We develop a new approach to the problem called maximum optimality margin which designs the machine learning loss function by the optimality condition of the downstream optimization. The max-margin formulation enjoys both computational efficiency and good theoretical properties for the learning procedure. More importantly, our new approach only needs the observations of the optimal solution in the training data rather than the objective function, which makes it a new and natural approach to the inverse linear programming problem under both contextual and context-free settings; we also analyze the proposed method under both offline and online settings, and demonstrate its performance using numerical experiments.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

The notion of omnipredictors (Gopalan, Kalai, Reingold, Sharan and Wieder ITCS 2021), suggested a new paradigm for loss minimization. Rather than learning a predictor based on a known loss function, omnipredictors can easily be post-processed to minimize any one of a rich family of loss functions compared with the loss of hypotheses in a class mathcal C. It has been shown that such omnipredictors exist and are implied (for all convex and Lipschitz loss functions) by the notion of multicalibration from the algorithmic fairness literature. In this paper, we introduce omnipredictors for constrained optimization and study their complexity and implications. The notion that we introduce allows the learner to be unaware of the loss function that will be later assigned as well as the constraints that will be later imposed, as long as the subpopulations that are used to define these constraints are known. We show how to obtain omnipredictors for constrained optimization problems, relying on appropriate variants of multicalibration. We also investigate the implications of this notion when the constraints used are so-called group fairness notions.

Inspired by recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) for Natural Language Processing (NLP), there has been a surge in research focused on developing foundational models for time series forecasting. One approach involves training LLM architectures on tokenized time series data using cross-entropy loss. Although this method has demonstrated promising results, cross-entropy loss is primarily designed for classification tasks and does not account for the distance between classes. To address this limitation, we propose using the Wasserstein loss for such architectures. To validate our approach, we fine-tuned a foundational time series model on 22 zero-shot datasets, comparing the performance of cross-entropy loss with that of Wasserstein loss. Our results demonstrate that replacing cross-entropy loss with Wasserstein loss significantly improves point estimation.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

A novel gradient boosting framework is proposed where shallow neural networks are employed as ``weak learners''. General loss functions are considered under this unified framework with specific examples presented for classification, regression, and learning to rank. A fully corrective step is incorporated to remedy the pitfall of greedy function approximation of classic gradient boosting decision tree. The proposed model rendered outperforming results against state-of-the-art boosting methods in all three tasks on multiple datasets. An ablation study is performed to shed light on the effect of each model components and model hyperparameters.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Although deep neural networks have achieved reasonable accuracy in solving face alignment, it is still a challenging task, specifically when we deal with facial images, under occlusion, or extreme head poses. Heatmap-based Regression (HBR) and Coordinate-based Regression (CBR) are among the two mainly used methods for face alignment. CBR methods require less computer memory, though their performance is less than HBR methods. In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Coordinate-based Regression (ACR) loss to improve the accuracy of CBR for face alignment. Inspired by the Active Shape Model (ASM), we generate Smooth-Face objects, a set of facial landmark points with less variations compared to the ground truth landmark points. We then introduce a method to estimate the level of difficulty in predicting each landmark point for the network by comparing the distribution of the ground truth landmark points and the corresponding Smooth-Face objects. Our proposed ACR Loss can adaptively modify its curvature and the influence of the loss based on the difficulty level of predicting each landmark point in a face. Accordingly, the ACR Loss guides the network toward challenging points than easier points, which improves the accuracy of the face alignment task. Our extensive evaluation shows the capabilities of the proposed ACR Loss in predicting facial landmark points in various facial images.

Training a modern machine learning architecture on a new task requires extensive learning-rate tuning, which comes at a high computational cost. Here we develop new adaptive learning rates that can be used with any momentum method, and require less tuning to perform well. We first develop MoMo, a Momentum Model based adaptive learning rate for SGD-M (Stochastic gradient descent with momentum). MoMo uses momentum estimates of the batch losses and gradients sampled at each iteration to build a model of the loss function. Our model also makes use of any known lower bound of the loss function by using truncation, e.g. most losses are lower-bounded by zero. We then approximately minimize this model at each iteration to compute the next step. We show how MoMo can be used in combination with any momentum-based method, and showcase this by developing MoMo-Adam - which is Adam with our new model-based adaptive learning rate. Additionally, for losses with unknown lower bounds, we develop on-the-fly estimates of a lower bound, that are incorporated in our model. Through extensive numerical experiments, we demonstrate that MoMo and MoMo-Adam improve over SGD-M and Adam in terms of accuracy and robustness to hyperparameter tuning for training image classifiers on MNIST, CIFAR10, CIFAR100, Imagenet, recommender systems on the Criteo dataset, and a transformer model on the translation task IWSLT14.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

Cross-entropy loss and focal loss are the most common choices when training deep neural networks for classification problems. Generally speaking, however, a good loss function can take on much more flexible forms, and should be tailored for different tasks and datasets. Motivated by how functions can be approximated via Taylor expansion, we propose a simple framework, named PolyLoss, to view and design loss functions as a linear combination of polynomial functions. Our PolyLoss allows the importance of different polynomial bases to be easily adjusted depending on the targeting tasks and datasets, while naturally subsuming the aforementioned cross-entropy loss and focal loss as special cases. Extensive experimental results show that the optimal choice within the PolyLoss is indeed dependent on the task and dataset. Simply by introducing one extra hyperparameter and adding one line of code, our Poly-1 formulation outperforms the cross-entropy loss and focal loss on 2D image classification, instance segmentation, object detection, and 3D object detection tasks, sometimes by a large margin.

Nearly all practical neural models for classification are trained using cross-entropy loss. Yet this ubiquitous choice is supported by little theoretical or empirical evidence. Recent work (Hui & Belkin, 2020) suggests that training using the (rescaled) square loss is often superior in terms of the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose the "squentropy" loss, which is the sum of two terms: the cross-entropy loss and the average square loss over the incorrect classes. We provide an extensive set of experiments on multi-class classification problems showing that the squentropy loss outperforms both the pure cross entropy and rescaled square losses in terms of the classification accuracy. We also demonstrate that it provides significantly better model calibration than either of these alternative losses and, furthermore, has less variance with respect to the random initialization. Additionally, in contrast to the square loss, squentropy loss can typically be trained using exactly the same optimization parameters, including the learning rate, as the standard cross-entropy loss, making it a true "plug-and-play" replacement. Finally, unlike the rescaled square loss, multiclass squentropy contains no parameters that need to be adjusted.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

In this paper, we introduce **harmonic loss** as an alternative to the standard cross-entropy loss for training neural networks and large language models (LLMs). Harmonic loss enables improved interpretability and faster convergence, owing to its scale invariance and finite convergence point by design, which can be interpreted as a class center. We first validate the performance of harmonic models across algorithmic, vision, and language datasets. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that models trained with harmonic loss outperform standard models by: (a) enhancing interpretability, (b) requiring less data for generalization, and (c) reducing grokking. Moreover, we compare a GPT-2 model trained with harmonic loss to the standard GPT-2, illustrating that the harmonic model develops more interpretable representations. Looking forward, we believe harmonic loss has the potential to become a valuable tool in domains with limited data availability or in high-stakes applications where interpretability and reliability are paramount, paving the way for more robust and efficient neural network models.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained for semantic segmentation of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in climate data. Our primary focus is on tropical cyclones, the most destructive weather events, for which current models show limited performance. We investigate feature engineering, data augmentation, learning rate modifications, alternative loss functions, and architectural changes. In contrast to previous approaches optimizing for intersection over union, we specifically seek to improve recall to penalize under-counting and prioritize identification of tropical cyclones. We report success through the use of weighted loss functions to counter class imbalance for these rare events. We conclude with directions for future research on extreme weather events detection, a crucial task for prediction, mitigation, and equitable adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and retention campaigns, predicting potential churners stands as a primary objective. In volatile sectors like fantasy sports, unpredictable factors such as international sports events can influence even regular spending habits. Consequently, while transaction history and user-product interaction are valuable in predicting churn, they demand deep domain knowledge and intricate feature engineering. Additionally, feature development for churn prediction systems can be resource-intensive, particularly in production settings serving 200m+ users, where inference pipelines largely focus on feature engineering. This paper conducts an exhaustive study on predicting user churn using historical data. We aim to create a model forecasting customer churn likelihood, facilitating businesses in comprehending attrition trends and formulating effective retention plans. Our approach treats churn prediction as multivariate time series classification, demonstrating that combining user activity and deep neural networks yields remarkable results for churn prediction in complex business-to-customer contexts.

In this work, we propose to study the performance of a model trained with a sentence embedding regression loss component for the Automated Audio Captioning task. This task aims to build systems that can describe audio content with a single sentence written in natural language. Most systems are trained with the standard Cross-Entropy loss, which does not take into account the semantic closeness of the sentence. We found that adding a sentence embedding loss term reduces overfitting, but also increased SPIDEr from 0.397 to 0.418 in our first setting on the AudioCaps corpus. When we increased the weight decay value, we found our model to be much closer to the current state-of-the-art methods, with a SPIDEr score up to 0.444 compared to a 0.475 score. Moreover, this model uses eight times less trainable parameters. In this training setting, the sentence embedding loss has no more impact on the model performance.

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Collaborative filtering (CF) is a widely studied research topic in recommender systems. The learning of a CF model generally depends on three major components, namely interaction encoder, loss function, and negative sampling. While many existing studies focus on the design of more powerful interaction encoders, the impacts of loss functions and negative sampling ratios have not yet been well explored. In this work, we show that the choice of loss function as well as negative sampling ratio is equivalently important. More specifically, we propose the cosine contrastive loss (CCL) and further incorporate it to a simple unified CF model, dubbed SimpleX. Extensive experiments have been conducted on 11 benchmark datasets and compared with 29 existing CF models in total. Surprisingly, the results show that, under our CCL loss and a large negative sampling ratio, SimpleX can surpass most sophisticated state-of-the-art models by a large margin (e.g., max 48.5% improvement in NDCG@20 over LightGCN). We believe that SimpleX could not only serve as a simple strong baseline to foster future research on CF, but also shed light on the potential research direction towards improving loss function and negative sampling. Our source code will be available at https://reczoo.github.io/SimpleX.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Representation learning methods have revolutionized machine learning on networks by converting discrete network structures into continuous domains. However, dynamic networks that evolve over time pose new challenges. To address this, dynamic representation learning methods have gained attention, offering benefits like reduced learning time and improved accuracy by utilizing temporal information. T-batching is a valuable technique for training dynamic network models that reduces training time while preserving vital conditions for accurate modeling. However, we have identified a limitation in the training loss function used with t-batching. Through mathematical analysis, we propose two alternative loss functions that overcome these issues, resulting in enhanced training performance. We extensively evaluate the proposed loss functions on synthetic and real-world dynamic networks. The results consistently demonstrate superior performance compared to the original loss function. Notably, in a real-world network characterized by diverse user interaction histories, the proposed loss functions achieved more than 26.9% enhancement in Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) and more than 11.8% improvement in Recall@10. These findings underscore the efficacy of the proposed loss functions in dynamic network modeling.

Designing robust systems for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. Even more challenging is to build a system for constructing an optimum portfolio of stocks based on the forecasted future stock prices. We present a deep learning-based regression model built on a long-and-short-term memory network (LSTM) network that automatically scraps the web and extracts historical stock prices based on a stock's ticker name for a specified pair of start and end dates, and forecasts the future stock prices. We deploy the model on 75 significant stocks chosen from 15 critical sectors of the Indian stock market. For each of the stocks, the model is evaluated for its forecast accuracy. Moreover, the predicted values of the stock prices are used as the basis for investment decisions, and the returns on the investments are computed. Extensive results are presented on the performance of the model. The analysis of the results demonstrates the efficacy and effectiveness of the system and enables us to compare the profitability of the sectors from the point of view of the investors in the stock market.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Recognition in low quality face datasets is challenging because facial attributes are obscured and degraded. Advances in margin-based loss functions have resulted in enhanced discriminability of faces in the embedding space. Further, previous studies have studied the effect of adaptive losses to assign more importance to misclassified (hard) examples. In this work, we introduce another aspect of adaptiveness in the loss function, namely the image quality. We argue that the strategy to emphasize misclassified samples should be adjusted according to their image quality. Specifically, the relative importance of easy or hard samples should be based on the sample's image quality. We propose a new loss function that emphasizes samples of different difficulties based on their image quality. Our method achieves this in the form of an adaptive margin function by approximating the image quality with feature norms. Extensive experiments show that our method, AdaFace, improves the face recognition performance over the state-of-the-art (SoTA) on four datasets (IJB-B, IJB-C, IJB-S and TinyFace). Code and models are released in https://github.com/mk-minchul/AdaFace.

In a typical multi-label setting, a picture contains on average few positive labels, and many negative ones. This positive-negative imbalance dominates the optimization process, and can lead to under-emphasizing gradients from positive labels during training, resulting in poor accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a novel asymmetric loss ("ASL"), which operates differently on positive and negative samples. The loss enables to dynamically down-weights and hard-thresholds easy negative samples, while also discarding possibly mislabeled samples. We demonstrate how ASL can balance the probabilities of different samples, and how this balancing is translated to better mAP scores. With ASL, we reach state-of-the-art results on multiple popular multi-label datasets: MS-COCO, Pascal-VOC, NUS-WIDE and Open Images. We also demonstrate ASL applicability for other tasks, such as single-label classification and object detection. ASL is effective, easy to implement, and does not increase the training time or complexity. Implementation is available at: https://github.com/Alibaba-MIIL/ASL.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Few-shot learning is a challenging area of research that aims to learn new concepts with only a few labeled samples of data. Recent works based on metric-learning approaches leverage the meta-learning approach, which is encompassed by episodic tasks that make use a support (training) and query set (test) with the objective of learning a similarity comparison metric between those sets. Due to the lack of data, the learning process of the embedding network becomes an important part of the few-shot task. Previous works have addressed this problem using metric learning approaches, but the properties of the underlying latent space and the separability of the difference classes on it was not entirely enforced. In this work, we propose two different loss functions which consider the importance of the embedding vectors by looking at the intra-class and inter-class distance between the few data. The first loss function is the Proto-Triplet Loss, which is based on the original triplet loss with the modifications needed to better work on few-shot scenarios. The second loss function, which we dub ICNN loss is based on an inter and intra class nearest neighbors score, which help us to assess the quality of embeddings obtained from the trained network. Our results, obtained from a extensive experimental setup show a significant improvement in accuracy in the miniImagenNet benchmark compared to other metric-based few-shot learning methods by a margin of 2%, demonstrating the capability of these loss functions to allow the network to generalize better to previously unseen classes. In our experiments, we demonstrate competitive generalization capabilities to other domains, such as the Caltech CUB, Dogs and Cars datasets compared with the state of the art.

We study a family of loss functions named label-distributionally robust (LDR) losses for multi-class classification that are formulated from distributionally robust optimization (DRO) perspective, where the uncertainty in the given label information are modeled and captured by taking the worse case of distributional weights. The benefits of this perspective are several fold: (i) it provides a unified framework to explain the classical cross-entropy (CE) loss and SVM loss and their variants, (ii) it includes a special family corresponding to the temperature-scaled CE loss, which is widely adopted but poorly understood; (iii) it allows us to achieve adaptivity to the uncertainty degree of label information at an instance level. Our contributions include: (1) we study both consistency and robustness by establishing top-k (forall kgeq 1) consistency of LDR losses for multi-class classification, and a negative result that a top-1 consistent and symmetric robust loss cannot achieve top-k consistency simultaneously for all kgeq 2; (2) we propose a new adaptive LDR loss that automatically adapts the individualized temperature parameter to the noise degree of class label of each instance; (3) we demonstrate stable and competitive performance for the proposed adaptive LDR loss on 7 benchmark datasets under 6 noisy label and 1 clean settings against 13 loss functions, and on one real-world noisy dataset. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/Optimization-AI/ICML2023_LDR.

In today's heavily overparameterized models, the value of the training loss provides few guarantees on model generalization ability. Indeed, optimizing only the training loss value, as is commonly done, can easily lead to suboptimal model quality. Motivated by prior work connecting the geometry of the loss landscape and generalization, we introduce a novel, effective procedure for instead simultaneously minimizing loss value and loss sharpness. In particular, our procedure, Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM), seeks parameters that lie in neighborhoods having uniformly low loss; this formulation results in a min-max optimization problem on which gradient descent can be performed efficiently. We present empirical results showing that SAM improves model generalization across a variety of benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, finetuning tasks) and models, yielding novel state-of-the-art performance for several. Additionally, we find that SAM natively provides robustness to label noise on par with that provided by state-of-the-art procedures that specifically target learning with noisy labels. We open source our code at https://github.com/google-research/sam.

Cross-entropy is a widely used loss function in applications. It coincides with the logistic loss applied to the outputs of a neural network, when the softmax is used. But, what guarantees can we rely on when using cross-entropy as a surrogate loss? We present a theoretical analysis of a broad family of loss functions, comp-sum losses, that includes cross-entropy (or logistic loss), generalized cross-entropy, the mean absolute error and other cross-entropy-like loss functions. We give the first H-consistency bounds for these loss functions. These are non-asymptotic guarantees that upper bound the zero-one loss estimation error in terms of the estimation error of a surrogate loss, for the specific hypothesis set H used. We further show that our bounds are tight. These bounds depend on quantities called minimizability gaps. To make them more explicit, we give a specific analysis of these gaps for comp-sum losses. We also introduce a new family of loss functions, smooth adversarial comp-sum losses, that are derived from their comp-sum counterparts by adding in a related smooth term. We show that these loss functions are beneficial in the adversarial setting by proving that they admit H-consistency bounds. This leads to new adversarial robustness algorithms that consist of minimizing a regularized smooth adversarial comp-sum loss. While our main purpose is a theoretical analysis, we also present an extensive empirical analysis comparing comp-sum losses. We further report the results of a series of experiments demonstrating that our adversarial robustness algorithms outperform the current state-of-the-art, while also achieving a superior non-adversarial accuracy.

Real-world datasets exhibit imbalances of varying types and degrees. Several techniques based on re-weighting and margin adjustment of loss are often used to enhance the performance of neural networks, particularly on minority classes. In this work, we analyze the class-imbalanced learning problem by examining the loss landscape of neural networks trained with re-weighting and margin-based techniques. Specifically, we examine the spectral density of Hessian of class-wise loss, through which we observe that the network weights converge to a saddle point in the loss landscapes of minority classes. Following this observation, we also find that optimization methods designed to escape from saddle points can be effectively used to improve generalization on minority classes. We further theoretically and empirically demonstrate that Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM), a recent technique that encourages convergence to a flat minima, can be effectively used to escape saddle points for minority classes. Using SAM results in a 6.2\% increase in accuracy on the minority classes over the state-of-the-art Vector Scaling Loss, leading to an overall average increase of 4\% across imbalanced datasets. The code is available at: https://github.com/val-iisc/Saddle-LongTail.

We consider the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with spectral risk-based uncertainty set and f-divergence penalty. This formulation includes common risk-sensitive learning objectives such as regularized condition value-at-risk (CVaR) and average top-k loss. We present Prospect, a stochastic gradient-based algorithm that only requires tuning a single learning rate hyperparameter, and prove that it enjoys linear convergence for smooth regularized losses. This contrasts with previous algorithms that either require tuning multiple hyperparameters or potentially fail to converge due to biased gradient estimates or inadequate regularization. Empirically, we show that Prospect can converge 2-3times faster than baselines such as stochastic gradient and stochastic saddle-point methods on distribution shift and fairness benchmarks spanning tabular, vision, and language domains.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Large language models have led to state-of-the-art accuracies across a range of tasks. However,training large language model needs massive computing resource, as more and more open source pre-training models are available, it is worthy to study how to take full advantage of available model. We find a method to save training time and resource cost by changing the small well-trained model to large model. We initialize a larger target model from a smaller source model by copy weight values from source model and padding with zeros or small initialization values on it to make the source and target model have approximate outputs, which is valid due to block matrix multiplication and residual connection in transformer structure. We test the target model on several data sets and find it is still comparable with the source model. When we continue training the target model, the training loss can start from a smaller value.

Traditional knowledge distillation focuses on aligning the student's predicted probabilities with both ground-truth labels and the teacher's predicted probabilities. However, the transition to predicted probabilities from logits would obscure certain indispensable information. To address this issue, it is intuitive to additionally introduce a logit-level loss function as a supplement to the widely used probability-level loss function, for exploiting the latent information of logits. Unfortunately, we empirically find that the amalgamation of the newly introduced logit-level loss and the previous probability-level loss will lead to performance degeneration, even trailing behind the performance of employing either loss in isolation. We attribute this phenomenon to the collapse of the classification head, which is verified by our theoretical analysis based on the neural collapse theory. Specifically, the gradients of the two loss functions exhibit contradictions in the linear classifier yet display no such conflict within the backbone. Drawing from the theoretical analysis, we propose a novel method called dual-head knowledge distillation, which partitions the linear classifier into two classification heads responsible for different losses, thereby preserving the beneficial effects of both losses on the backbone while eliminating adverse influences on the classification head. Extensive experiments validate that our method can effectively exploit the information inside the logits and achieve superior performance against state-of-the-art counterparts.

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since the collected time series data can be contaminated in practice. The forecasting model will be inferior if it is directly trained by time series with anomalies. Thus it is essential to develop methods to automatically learn a robust forecasting model from the contaminated data. In this paper, we first statistically define three types of anomalies, then theoretically and experimentally analyze the loss robustness and sample robustness when these anomalies exist. Based on our analyses, we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn a robust forecasting model. Extensive experiments show that our method is highly robust and outperforms all existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haochenglouis/RobustTSF.

We focus on the classification problem with a separable dataset, one of the most important and classical problems from machine learning. The standard approach to this task is logistic regression with gradient descent (LR+GD). Recent studies have observed that LR+GD can find a solution with arbitrarily large step sizes, defying conventional optimization theory. Our work investigates this phenomenon and makes three interconnected key observations about LR+GD with large step sizes. First, we find a remarkably simple explanation of why LR+GD with large step sizes solves the classification problem: LR+GD reduces to a batch version of the celebrated perceptron algorithm when the step size gamma to infty. Second, we observe that larger step sizes lead LR+GD to higher logistic losses when it tends to the perceptron algorithm, but larger step sizes also lead to faster convergence to a solution for the classification problem, meaning that logistic loss is an unreliable metric of the proximity to a solution. Surprisingly, high loss values can actually indicate faster convergence. Third, since the convergence rate in terms of loss function values of LR+GD is unreliable, we examine the iteration complexity required by LR+GD with large step sizes to solve the classification problem and prove that this complexity is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a new method, Normalized LR+GD - based on the connection between LR+GD and the perceptron algorithm - with much better theoretical guarantees.

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the GMADL loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the GMADL versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, GMADL solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, GMADL also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

LOBSTER (LOss-Based SensiTivity rEgulaRization) is a method for training neural networks having a sparse topology. Let the sensitivity of a network parameter be the variation of the loss function with respect to the variation of the parameter. Parameters with low sensitivity, i.e. having little impact on the loss when perturbed, are shrunk and then pruned to sparsify the network. Our method allows to train a network from scratch, i.e. without preliminary learning or rewinding. Experiments on multiple architectures and datasets show competitive compression ratios with minimal computational overhead.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Numerous deep learning applications benefit from multi-task learning with multiple regression and classification objectives. In this paper we make the observation that the performance of such systems is strongly dependent on the relative weighting between each task's loss. Tuning these weights by hand is a difficult and expensive process, making multi-task learning prohibitive in practice. We propose a principled approach to multi-task deep learning which weighs multiple loss functions by considering the homoscedastic uncertainty of each task. This allows us to simultaneously learn various quantities with different units or scales in both classification and regression settings. We demonstrate our model learning per-pixel depth regression, semantic and instance segmentation from a monocular input image. Perhaps surprisingly, we show our model can learn multi-task weightings and outperform separate models trained individually on each task.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Machine learning models -- including prominent zero-shot models -- are often trained on datasets whose labels are only a small proportion of a larger label space. Such spaces are commonly equipped with a metric that relates the labels via distances between them. We propose a simple approach to exploit this information to adapt the trained model to reliably predict new classes -- or, in the case of zero-shot prediction, to improve its performance -- without any additional training. Our technique is a drop-in replacement of the standard prediction rule, swapping argmax with the Fr\'echet mean. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis for this approach, studying (i) learning-theoretic results trading off label space diameter, sample complexity, and model dimension, (ii) characterizations of the full range of scenarios in which it is possible to predict any unobserved class, and (iii) an optimal active learning-like next class selection procedure to obtain optimal training classes for when it is not possible to predict the entire range of unobserved classes. Empirically, using easily-available external metrics, our proposed approach, Loki, gains up to 29.7% relative improvement over SimCLR on ImageNet and scales to hundreds of thousands of classes. When no such metric is available, Loki can use self-derived metrics from class embeddings and obtains a 10.5% improvement on pretrained zero-shot models such as CLIP.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

It has long been established that predictive models can be transformed into lossless compressors and vice versa. Incidentally, in recent years, the machine learning community has focused on training increasingly large and powerful self-supervised (language) models. Since these large language models exhibit impressive predictive capabilities, they are well-positioned to be strong compressors. In this work, we advocate for viewing the prediction problem through the lens of compression and evaluate the compression capabilities of large (foundation) models. We show that large language models are powerful general-purpose predictors and that the compression viewpoint provides novel insights into scaling laws, tokenization, and in-context learning. For example, Chinchilla 70B, while trained primarily on text, compresses ImageNet patches to 43.4% and LibriSpeech samples to 16.4% of their raw size, beating domain-specific compressors like PNG (58.5%) or FLAC (30.3%), respectively. Finally, we show that the prediction-compression equivalence allows us to use any compressor (like gzip) to build a conditional generative model.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

Recently, substantial progress has been made in text ranking based on pretrained language models such as BERT. However, there are limited studies on how to leverage more powerful sequence-to-sequence models such as T5. Existing attempts usually formulate text ranking as classification and rely on postprocessing to obtain a ranked list. In this paper, we propose RankT5 and study two T5-based ranking model structures, an encoder-decoder and an encoder-only one, so that they not only can directly output ranking scores for each query-document pair, but also can be fine-tuned with "pairwise" or "listwise" ranking losses to optimize ranking performances. Our experiments show that the proposed models with ranking losses can achieve substantial ranking performance gains on different public text ranking data sets. Moreover, when fine-tuned with listwise ranking losses, the ranking model appears to have better zero-shot ranking performance on out-of-domain data sets compared to the model fine-tuned with classification losses.

The temperature parameter plays a profound role during training and/or inference with large foundation models (LFMs) such as large language models (LLMs) and CLIP models. Particularly, it adjusts the logits in the softmax function in LLMs, which is crucial for next token generation, and it scales the similarities in the contrastive loss for training CLIP models. A significant question remains: Is it viable to learn a neural network to predict a personalized temperature of any input data for enhancing LFMs"? In this paper, we present a principled framework for learning a small yet generalizable temperature prediction network (TempNet) to improve LFMs. Our solution is composed of a novel learning framework with a robust loss underpinned by constrained distributionally robust optimization (DRO), and a properly designed TempNet with theoretical inspiration. TempNet can be trained together with a large foundation model from scratch or learned separately given a pretrained foundation model. It is not only useful for predicting personalized temperature to promote the training of LFMs but also generalizable and transferable to new tasks. Our experiments on LLMs and CLIP models demonstrate that TempNet greatly improves the performance of existing solutions or models, e.g. Table 1. The code to reproduce the experimental results in this paper can be found at https://github.com/zhqiu/TempNet.

Knowledge distillation (KD) exploits a large well-trained model (i.e., teacher) to train a small student model on the same dataset for the same task. Treating teacher features as knowledge, prevailing methods of knowledge distillation train student by aligning its features with the teacher's, e.g., by minimizing the KL-divergence between their logits or L2 distance between their intermediate features. While it is natural to believe that better alignment of student features to the teacher better distills teacher knowledge, simply forcing this alignment does not directly contribute to the student's performance, e.g., classification accuracy. In this work, we propose to align student features with class-mean of teacher features, where class-mean naturally serves as a strong classifier. To this end, we explore baseline techniques such as adopting the cosine distance based loss to encourage the similarity between student features and their corresponding class-means of the teacher. Moreover, we train the student to produce large-norm features, inspired by other lines of work (e.g., model pruning and domain adaptation), which find the large-norm features to be more significant. Finally, we propose a rather simple loss term (dubbed ND loss) to simultaneously (1) encourage student to produce large-norm features, and (2) align the direction of student features and teacher class-means. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that our explored techniques help existing KD methods achieve better performance, i.e., higher classification accuracy on ImageNet and CIFAR100 datasets, and higher detection precision on COCO dataset. Importantly, our proposed ND loss helps the most, leading to the state-of-the-art performance on these benchmarks. The source code is available at https://github.com/WangYZ1608/Knowledge-Distillation-via-ND.

Stock prices forecasting has always been a challenging task. Although many research projects adopt machine learning and deep learning algorithms to address the problem, few of them pay attention to the varying degrees of dependencies between stock prices. In this paper we introduce a hybrid model that improves stock price prediction by emphasizing the dependencies between adjacent stock prices. The proposed model, ResNLS, is mainly composed of two neural architectures, ResNet and LSTM. ResNet serves as a feature extractor to identify dependencies between stock prices across time windows, while LSTM analyses the initial time-series data with the combination of dependencies which considered as residuals. In predicting the SSE Composite Index, our experiment reveals that when the closing price data for the previous 5 consecutive trading days is used as the input, the performance of the model (ResNLS-5) is optimal compared to those with other inputs. Furthermore, ResNLS-5 outperforms vanilla CNN, RNN, LSTM, and BiLSTM models in terms of prediction accuracy. It also demonstrates at least a 20% improvement over the current state-of-the-art baselines. To verify whether ResNLS-5 can help clients effectively avoid risks and earn profits in the stock market, we construct a quantitative trading framework for back testing. The experimental results show that the trading strategy based on predictions from ResNLS-5 can successfully mitigate losses during declining stock prices and generate profits in the periods of rising stock prices.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

This paper provides a pair similarity optimization viewpoint on deep feature learning, aiming to maximize the within-class similarity s_p and minimize the between-class similarity s_n. We find a majority of loss functions, including the triplet loss and the softmax plus cross-entropy loss, embed s_n and s_p into similarity pairs and seek to reduce (s_n-s_p). Such an optimization manner is inflexible, because the penalty strength on every single similarity score is restricted to be equal. Our intuition is that if a similarity score deviates far from the optimum, it should be emphasized. To this end, we simply re-weight each similarity to highlight the less-optimized similarity scores. It results in a Circle loss, which is named due to its circular decision boundary. The Circle loss has a unified formula for two elemental deep feature learning approaches, i.e. learning with class-level labels and pair-wise labels. Analytically, we show that the Circle loss offers a more flexible optimization approach towards a more definite convergence target, compared with the loss functions optimizing (s_n-s_p). Experimentally, we demonstrate the superiority of the Circle loss on a variety of deep feature learning tasks. On face recognition, person re-identification, as well as several fine-grained image retrieval datasets, the achieved performance is on par with the state of the art.

We present the UTokyo-SaruLab mean opinion score (MOS) prediction system submitted to VoiceMOS Challenge 2022. The challenge is to predict the MOS values of speech samples collected from previous Blizzard Challenges and Voice Conversion Challenges for two tracks: a main track for in-domain prediction and an out-of-domain (OOD) track for which there is less labeled data from different listening tests. Our system is based on ensemble learning of strong and weak learners. Strong learners incorporate several improvements to the previous fine-tuning models of self-supervised learning (SSL) models, while weak learners use basic machine-learning methods to predict scores from SSL features. In the Challenge, our system had the highest score on several metrics for both the main and OOD tracks. In addition, we conducted ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Text embedding models have been popular for information retrieval applications such as semantic search and Question-Answering systems based on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Those models are typically Transformer models that are fine-tuned with contrastive learning objectives. Many papers introduced new embedding model architectures and training approaches, however, one of the key ingredients, the process of mining negative passages, remains poorly explored or described. One of the challenging aspects of fine-tuning embedding models is the selection of high quality hard-negative passages for contrastive learning. In this paper we propose a family of positive-aware mining methods that leverage the positive relevance score for more effective false negatives removal. We also provide a comprehensive ablation study on hard-negative mining methods over their configurations, exploring different teacher and base models. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed methods by introducing the NV-Retriever-v1 model, which scores 60.9 on MTEB Retrieval (BEIR) benchmark and 0.65 points higher than previous methods. The model placed 1st when it was published to MTEB Retrieval on July 07, 2024.

With the growing popularity of RAG, the capabilities of embedding models are gaining increasing attention. Embedding models are primarily trained through contrastive loss learning, with negative examples being a key component. Previous work has proposed various hard negative mining strategies, but these strategies are typically employed as preprocessing steps. In this paper, we propose the conan-embedding model, which maximizes the utilization of more and higher-quality negative examples. Specifically, since the model's ability to handle preprocessed negative examples evolves during training, we propose dynamic hard negative mining method to expose the model to more challenging negative examples throughout the training process. Secondly, contrastive learning requires as many negative examples as possible but is limited by GPU memory constraints. Therefore, we use a Cross-GPU balancing Loss to provide more negative examples for embedding training and balance the batch size across multiple tasks. Moreover, we also discovered that the prompt-response pairs from LLMs can be used for embedding training. Our approach effectively enhances the capabilities of embedding models, currently ranking first on the Chinese leaderboard of Massive text embedding benchmark

Macro-AUC is the arithmetic mean of the class-wise AUCs in multi-label learning and is commonly used in practice. However, its theoretical understanding is far lacking. Toward solving it, we characterize the generalization properties of various learning algorithms based on the corresponding surrogate losses w.r.t. Macro-AUC. We theoretically identify a critical factor of the dataset affecting the generalization bounds: the label-wise class imbalance. Our results on the imbalance-aware error bounds show that the widely-used univariate loss-based algorithm is more sensitive to the label-wise class imbalance than the proposed pairwise and reweighted loss-based ones, which probably implies its worse performance. Moreover, empirical results on various datasets corroborate our theory findings. To establish it, technically, we propose a new (and more general) McDiarmid-type concentration inequality, which may be of independent interest.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Current model quantization methods have shown their promising capability in reducing storage space and computation complexity. However, due to the diversity of quantization forms supported by different hardware, one limitation of existing solutions is that usually require repeated optimization for different scenarios. How to construct a model with flexible quantization forms has been less studied. In this paper, we explore a one-shot network quantization regime, named Elastic Quantization Neural Networks (EQ-Net), which aims to train a robust weight-sharing quantization supernet. First of all, we propose an elastic quantization space (including elastic bit-width, granularity, and symmetry) to adapt to various mainstream quantitative forms. Secondly, we propose the Weight Distribution Regularization Loss (WDR-Loss) and Group Progressive Guidance Loss (GPG-Loss) to bridge the inconsistency of the distribution for weights and output logits in the elastic quantization space gap. Lastly, we incorporate genetic algorithms and the proposed Conditional Quantization-Aware Accuracy Predictor (CQAP) as an estimator to quickly search mixed-precision quantized neural networks in supernet. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EQ-Net is close to or even better than its static counterparts as well as state-of-the-art robust bit-width methods. Code can be available at https://github.com/xuke225/EQ-Net.git{https://github.com/xuke225/EQ-Net}.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

With an estimated 160,000 deaths in 2018, lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Lung cancer CT screening has been shown to reduce mortality by up to 40% and is now included in US screening guidelines. Reducing the high error rates in lung cancer screening is imperative because of the high clinical and financial costs caused by diagnosis mistakes. Despite the use of standards for radiological diagnosis, persistent inter-grader variability and incomplete characterization of comprehensive imaging findings remain as limitations of current methods. These limitations suggest opportunities for more sophisticated systems to improve performance and inter-reader consistency. In this report, we reproduce a state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm for lung cancer risk prediction. Our model predicts malignancy probability and risk bucket classification from lung CT studies. This allows for risk categorization of patients being screened and suggests the most appropriate surveillance and management. Combining our solution high accuracy, consistency and fully automated nature, our approach may enable highly efficient screening procedures and accelerate the adoption of lung cancer screening.

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confidence of each data having relevance information via the EM-algorithm. However, these methods failed to address the missing-not-at-random problem in which popular or frequently recommended items are more likely to be clicked than other items even if a user does not have a considerable interest in them. To overcome these limitations, we first define an ideal loss function to be optimized to realize recommendations that maximize the relevance and propose an unbiased estimator for the ideal loss. Subsequently, we analyze the variance of the proposed unbiased estimator and further propose a clipped estimator that includes the unbiased estimator as a special case. We demonstrate that the clipped estimator is expected to improve the performance of the recommender system, by considering the bias-variance trade-off. We conduct semi-synthetic and real-world experiments and demonstrate that the proposed method largely outperforms the baselines. In particular, the proposed method works better for rare items that are less frequently observed in the training data. The findings indicate that the proposed method can better achieve the objective of recommending items with the highest relevance.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

The generalization performance of a machine learning algorithm such as a neural network depends in a non-trivial way on the structure of the data distribution. To analyze the influence of data structure on test loss dynamics, we study an exactly solveable model of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on mean square loss which predicts test loss when training on features with arbitrary covariance structure. We solve the theory exactly for both Gaussian features and arbitrary features and we show that the simpler Gaussian model accurately predicts test loss of nonlinear random-feature models and deep neural networks trained with SGD on real datasets such as MNIST and CIFAR-10. We show that the optimal batch size at a fixed compute budget is typically small and depends on the feature correlation structure, demonstrating the computational benefits of SGD with small batch sizes. Lastly, we extend our theory to the more usual setting of stochastic gradient descent on a fixed subsampled training set, showing that both training and test error can be accurately predicted in our framework on real data.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

In this paper, we delineate the strategy employed by our team, DeepLearningBrasil, which secured us the first place in the shared task DepSign-LT-EDI@RANLP-2023, achieving a 47.0% Macro F1-Score and a notable 2.4% advantage. The task was to classify social media texts into three distinct levels of depression - "not depressed," "moderately depressed," and "severely depressed." Leveraging the power of the RoBERTa and DeBERTa models, we further pre-trained them on a collected Reddit dataset, specifically curated from mental health-related Reddit's communities (Subreddits), leading to an enhanced understanding of nuanced mental health discourse. To address lengthy textual data, we used truncation techniques that retained the essence of the content by focusing on its beginnings and endings. Our model was robust against unbalanced data by incorporating sample weights into the loss. Cross-validation and ensemble techniques were then employed to combine our k-fold trained models, delivering an optimal solution. The accompanying code is made available for transparency and further development.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Levin Tree Search (LTS) is a search algorithm that makes use of a policy (a probability distribution over actions) and comes with a theoretical guarantee on the number of expansions before reaching a goal node, depending on the quality of the policy. This guarantee can be used as a loss function, which we call the LTS loss, to optimize neural networks representing the policy (LTS+NN). In this work we show that the neural network can be substituted with parameterized context models originating from the online compression literature (LTS+CM). We show that the LTS loss is convex under this new model, which allows for using standard convex optimization tools, and obtain convergence guarantees to the optimal parameters in an online setting for a given set of solution trajectories -- guarantees that cannot be provided for neural networks. The new LTS+CM algorithm compares favorably against LTS+NN on several benchmarks: Sokoban (Boxoban), The Witness, and the 24-Sliding Tile puzzle (STP). The difference is particularly large on STP, where LTS+NN fails to solve most of the test instances while LTS+CM solves each test instance in a fraction of a second. Furthermore, we show that LTS+CM is able to learn a policy that solves the Rubik's cube in only a few hundred expansions, which considerably improves upon previous machine learning techniques.

The S{\o}rensen--Dice Coefficient has recently seen rising popularity as a loss function (also known as Dice loss) due to its robustness in tasks where the number of negative samples significantly exceeds that of positive samples, such as semantic segmentation, natural language processing, and sound event detection. Conventional training of polyphonic sound event detection systems with binary cross-entropy loss often results in suboptimal detection performance as the training is often overwhelmed by updates from negative samples. In this paper, we investigated the effect of the Dice loss, intra- and inter-modal transfer learning, data augmentation, and recording formats, on the performance of polyphonic sound event detection systems with multichannel inputs. Our analysis showed that polyphonic sound event detection systems trained with Dice loss consistently outperformed those trained with cross-entropy loss across different training settings and recording formats in terms of F1 score and error rate. We achieved further performance gains via the use of transfer learning and an appropriate combination of different data augmentation techniques.

We propose that the grokking phenomenon, where the train loss of a neural network decreases much earlier than its test loss, can arise due to a neural network transitioning from lazy training dynamics to a rich, feature learning regime. To illustrate this mechanism, we study the simple setting of vanilla gradient descent on a polynomial regression problem with a two layer neural network which exhibits grokking without regularization in a way that cannot be explained by existing theories. We identify sufficient statistics for the test loss of such a network, and tracking these over training reveals that grokking arises in this setting when the network first attempts to fit a kernel regression solution with its initial features, followed by late-time feature learning where a generalizing solution is identified after train loss is already low. We provide an asymptotic theoretical description of the grokking dynamics in this model using dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) for high dimensional data. We find that the key determinants of grokking are the rate of feature learning -- which can be controlled precisely by parameters that scale the network output -- and the alignment of the initial features with the target function y(x). We argue this delayed generalization arises when (1) the top eigenvectors of the initial neural tangent kernel and the task labels y(x) are misaligned, but (2) the dataset size is large enough so that it is possible for the network to generalize eventually, but not so large that train loss perfectly tracks test loss at all epochs, and (3) the network begins training in the lazy regime so does not learn features immediately. We conclude with evidence that this transition from lazy (linear model) to rich training (feature learning) can control grokking in more general settings, like on MNIST, one-layer Transformers, and student-teacher networks.

Representation learning has significantly driven the field to develop pretrained models that can act as a valuable starting point when transferring to new datasets. With the rising demand for reliable machine learning and uncertainty quantification, there is a need for pretrained models that not only provide embeddings but also transferable uncertainty estimates. To guide the development of such models, we propose the Uncertainty-aware Representation Learning (URL) benchmark. Besides the transferability of the representations, it also measures the zero-shot transferability of the uncertainty estimate using a novel metric. We apply URL to evaluate eleven uncertainty quantifiers that are pretrained on ImageNet and transferred to eight downstream datasets. We find that approaches that focus on the uncertainty of the representation itself or estimate the prediction risk directly outperform those that are based on the probabilities of upstream classes. Yet, achieving transferable uncertainty quantification remains an open challenge. Our findings indicate that it is not necessarily in conflict with traditional representation learning goals. Code is provided under https://github.com/mkirchhof/url .

Within the scope of natural language processing, the domain of multi-label text classification is uniquely challenging due to its expansive and uneven label distribution. The complexity deepens due to the demand for an extensive set of annotated data for training an advanced deep learning model, especially in specialized fields where the labeling task can be labor-intensive and often requires domain-specific knowledge. Addressing these challenges, our study introduces a novel deep active learning strategy, capitalizing on the Beta family of proper scoring rules within the Expected Loss Reduction framework. It computes the expected increase in scores using the Beta Scoring Rules, which are then transformed into sample vector representations. These vector representations guide the diverse selection of informative samples, directly linking this process to the model's expected proper score. Comprehensive evaluations across both synthetic and real datasets reveal our method's capability to often outperform established acquisition techniques in multi-label text classification, presenting encouraging outcomes across various architectural and dataset scenarios.

Deep neural networks are highly performant, but might base their decision on spurious or background features that co-occur with certain classes, which can hurt generalization. To mitigate this issue, the usage of 'model guidance' has gained popularity recently: for this, models are guided to be "right for the right reasons" by regularizing the models' explanations to highlight the right features. Experimental validation of these approaches has thus far however been limited to relatively simple and / or synthetic datasets. To gain a better understanding of which model-guiding approaches actually transfer to more challenging real-world datasets, in this work we conduct an in-depth evaluation across various loss functions, attribution methods, models, and 'guidance depths' on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and MS COCO 2014 datasets, and show that model guidance can sometimes even improve model performance. In this context, we further propose a novel energy loss, show its effectiveness in directing the model to focus on object features. We also show that these gains can be achieved even with a small fraction (e.g. 1%) of bounding box annotations, highlighting the cost effectiveness of this approach. Lastly, we show that this approach can also improve generalization under distribution shifts. Code will be made available.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

We introduce Gravity, another algorithm for gradient-based optimization. In this paper, we explain how our novel idea change parameters to reduce the deep learning model's loss. It has three intuitive hyper-parameters that the best values for them are proposed. Also, we propose an alternative to moving average. To compare the performance of the Gravity optimizer with two common optimizers, Adam and RMSProp, five standard datasets were trained on two VGGNet models with a batch size of 128 for 100 epochs. Gravity hyper-parameters did not need to be tuned for different models. As will be explained more in the paper, to investigate the direct impact of the optimizer itself on loss reduction no overfitting prevention technique was used. The obtained results show that the Gravity optimizer has more stable performance than Adam and RMSProp and gives greater values of validation accuracy for datasets with more output classes like CIFAR-100 (Fine).

Understanding how overparameterized neural networks generalize despite perfect interpolation of noisy training data is a fundamental question. Mallinar et. al. 2022 noted that neural networks seem to often exhibit ``tempered overfitting'', wherein the population risk does not converge to the Bayes optimal error, but neither does it approach infinity, yielding non-trivial generalization. However, this has not been studied rigorously. We provide the first rigorous analysis of the overfitting behavior of regression with minimum norm (ell_2 of weights), focusing on univariate two-layer ReLU networks. We show overfitting is tempered (with high probability) when measured with respect to the L_1 loss, but also show that the situation is more complex than suggested by Mallinar et. al., and overfitting is catastrophic with respect to the L_2 loss, or when taking an expectation over the training set.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Understanding the inner workings of machine learning models like Transformers is vital for their safe and ethical use. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of a one-layer Transformer model trained to perform n-digit integer addition. Our findings suggest that the model dissects the task into parallel streams dedicated to individual digits, employing varied algorithms tailored to different positions within the digits. Furthermore, we identify a rare scenario characterized by high loss, which we explain. By thoroughly elucidating the model's algorithm, we provide new insights into its functioning. These findings are validated through rigorous testing and mathematical modeling, thereby contributing to the broader fields of model understanding and interpretability. Our approach opens the door for analyzing more complex tasks and multi-layer Transformer models.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

In most machine learning tasks, we evaluate a model M on a given data population S by measuring a population-level metric F(S;M). Examples of such evaluation metric F include precision/recall for (binary) recognition, the F1 score for multi-class classification, and the BLEU metric for language generation. On the other hand, the model M is trained by optimizing a sample-level loss G(S_t;M) at each learning step t, where S_t is a subset of S (a.k.a. the mini-batch). Popular choices of G include cross-entropy loss, the Dice loss, and sentence-level BLEU scores. A fundamental assumption behind this paradigm is that the mean value of the sample-level loss G, if averaged over all possible samples, should effectively represent the population-level metric F of the task, such as, that E[ G(S_t;M) ] approx F(S;M). In this paper, we systematically investigate the above assumption in several NLP tasks. We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that some popular designs of the sample-level loss G may be inconsistent with the true population-level metric F of the task, so that models trained to optimize the former can be substantially sub-optimal to the latter, a phenomenon we call it, Simpson's bias, due to its deep connections with the classic paradox known as Simpson's reversal paradox in statistics and social sciences.

We propose a simple pairwise sigmoid loss for image-text pre-training. Unlike standard contrastive learning with softmax normalization, the sigmoid loss operates solely on image-text pairs and does not require a global view of the pairwise similarities for normalization. The sigmoid loss simultaneously allows further scaling up the batch size, while also performing better at smaller batch sizes. With only four TPUv4 chips, we can train a Base CLIP model at 4k batch size and a Large LiT model at 20k batch size, the latter achieves 84.5% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy in two days. This disentanglement of the batch size from the loss further allows us to study the impact of examples vs pairs and negative to positive ratio. Finally, we push the batch size to the extreme, up to one million, and find that the benefits of growing batch size quickly diminish, with a more reasonable batch size of 32k being sufficient. We hope our research motivates further explorations in improving the quality and efficiency of language-image pre-training.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Robust loss functions are essential for training accurate deep neural networks (DNNs) in the presence of noisy (incorrect) labels. It has been shown that the commonly used Cross Entropy (CE) loss is not robust to noisy labels. Whilst new loss functions have been designed, they are only partially robust. In this paper, we theoretically show by applying a simple normalization that: any loss can be made robust to noisy labels. However, in practice, simply being robust is not sufficient for a loss function to train accurate DNNs. By investigating several robust loss functions, we find that they suffer from a problem of underfitting. To address this, we propose a framework to build robust loss functions called Active Passive Loss (APL). APL combines two robust loss functions that mutually boost each other. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that the family of new loss functions created by our APL framework can consistently outperform state-of-the-art methods by large margins, especially under large noise rates such as 60% or 80% incorrect labels.

In deep metric learning, the Triplet Loss has emerged as a popular method to learn many computer vision and natural language processing tasks such as facial recognition, object detection, and visual-semantic embeddings. One issue that plagues the Triplet Loss is network collapse, an undesirable phenomenon where the network projects the embeddings of all data onto a single point. Researchers predominately solve this problem by using triplet mining strategies. While hard negative mining is the most effective of these strategies, existing formulations lack strong theoretical justification for their empirical success. In this paper, we utilize the mathematical theory of isometric approximation to show an equivalence between the Triplet Loss sampled by hard negative mining and an optimization problem that minimizes a Hausdorff-like distance between the neural network and its ideal counterpart function. This provides the theoretical justifications for hard negative mining's empirical efficacy. In addition, our novel application of the isometric approximation theorem provides the groundwork for future forms of hard negative mining that avoid network collapse. Our theory can also be extended to analyze other Euclidean space-based metric learning methods like Ladder Loss or Contrastive Learning.

Although deep learning has produced dazzling successes for applications of image, speech, and video processing in the past few years, most trainings are with suboptimal hyper-parameters, requiring unnecessarily long training times. Setting the hyper-parameters remains a black art that requires years of experience to acquire. This report proposes several efficient ways to set the hyper-parameters that significantly reduce training time and improves performance. Specifically, this report shows how to examine the training validation/test loss function for subtle clues of underfitting and overfitting and suggests guidelines for moving toward the optimal balance point. Then it discusses how to increase/decrease the learning rate/momentum to speed up training. Our experiments show that it is crucial to balance every manner of regularization for each dataset and architecture. Weight decay is used as a sample regularizer to show how its optimal value is tightly coupled with the learning rates and momentums. Files to help replicate the results reported here are available.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.