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arxiv:2412.18405

Generalized Mean Absolute Directional Loss as a Solution to Overfitting and High Transaction Costs in Machine Learning Models Used in High-Frequency Algorithmic Investment Strategies

Published on Dec 24, 2024
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Abstract

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the G<PRE_TAG>MADL</POST_TAG> loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the G<PRE_TAG>MADL</POST_TAG> versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, G<PRE_TAG>MADL</POST_TAG> solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, G<PRE_TAG>MADL</POST_TAG> also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

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