Daily Papers

Text-to-speech (TTS) models have achieved remarkable naturalness in recent years, yet like most deep neural models, they have more parameters than necessary. Sparse TTS models can improve on dense models via pruning and extra retraining, or converge faster than dense models with some performance loss. Thus, we propose training TTS models using decaying sparsity, i.e. a high initial sparsity to accelerate training first, followed by a progressive rate reduction to obtain better eventual performance. This decremental approach differs from current methods of incrementing sparsity to a desired target, which costs significantly more time than dense training. We call our method SNIPER training: Single-shot Initialization Pruning Evolving-Rate training. Our experiments on FastSpeech2 show that we were able to obtain better losses in the first few training epochs with SNIPER, and that the final SNIPER-trained models outperformed constant-sparsity models and edged out dense models, with negligible difference in training time.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

State-of-the-art AI systems can be significantly improved without expensive retraining via "post-training enhancements"-techniques applied after initial training like fine-tuning the system to use a web browser. We review recent post-training enhancements, categorizing them into five types: tool-use, prompting methods, scaffolding, solution selection, and data generation. Different enhancements improve performance on different tasks, making it hard to compare their significance. So we translate improvements from different enhancements into a common currency, the compute-equivalent gain: how much additional training compute would be needed to improve performance by the same amount as the enhancement. Our non-experimental work shows that post-training enhancements have significant benefits: most surveyed enhancements improve benchmark performance by more than a 5x increase in training compute, some by more than 20x. Post-training enhancements are relatively cheap to develop: fine-tuning costs are typically <1% of the original training cost. Governing the development of capable post-training enhancements may be challenging because frontier models could be enhanced by a wide range of actors.

While the concept of entanglement purification protocols (EPPs) is straightforward, the integration of EPPs in network architectures requires careful performance evaluations and optimizations that take into account realistic conditions and imperfections, especially probabilistic entanglement generation and quantum memory decoherence. It is important to understand what is guaranteed to be improved from successful EPP with arbitrary non-identical input, which determines whether we want to perform the EPP at all. When successful EPP can offer improvement, the time to perform the EPP should also be optimized to maximize the improvement. In this work, we study the guaranteed improvement and optimal time for the CNOT-based recurrence EPP, previously shown to be optimal in various scenarios. We firstly prove guaranteed improvement for multiple figures of merit, including fidelity and several entanglement measures when compared to practical baselines as functions of input states. However, it is noteworthy that the guaranteed improvement we prove does not imply the universality of the EPP as introduced in arXiv:2407.21760. Then we prove robust, parameter-independent optimal time for typical error models and figures of merit. We further explore memory decoherence described by continuous-time Pauli channels, and demonstrate the phenomenon of optimal time transition when the memory decoherence error pattern changes. Our work deepens the understanding of EPP performance in realistic scenarios and offers insights into optimizing quantum networks that integrate EPPs.

Large pre-trained, zero-shot capable models have shown considerable success both for standard transfer and adaptation tasks, with particular robustness towards distribution shifts. In addition, subsequent fine-tuning can considerably improve performance on a selected downstream task. However, through naive fine-tuning, these zero-shot models lose their generalizability and robustness towards distribution shifts. This is a particular problem for tasks such as Continual Learning (CL), where continuous adaptation has to be performed as new task distributions are introduced sequentially. In this work, we showcase that where fine-tuning falls short to adapt such zero-shot capable models, simple momentum-based weight interpolation can provide consistent improvements for CL tasks in both memory-free and memory-based settings. In particular, we find improvements of over +4% on standard CL benchmarks, while reducing the error to the upper limit of jointly training on all tasks at once in parts by more than half, allowing the continual learner to inch closer to the joint training limits.

In recent years, large language models have demonstrated remarkable performance across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, deploying these models for real-world applications often requires efficient inference solutions to handle the computational demands. In this paper, we explore the utilization of CPUs for accelerating the inference of large language models. Specifically, we introduce a parallelized approach to enhance throughput by 1) Exploiting the parallel processing capabilities of modern CPU architectures, 2) Batching the inference request. Our evaluation shows the accelerated inference engine gives an 18-22x improvement in the generated token per sec. The improvement is more with longer sequence and larger models. In addition to this, we can also run multiple workers in the same machine with NUMA node isolation to further improvement in tokens/s. Table 2, we have received 4x additional improvement with 4 workers. This would also make Gen-AI based products and companies environment friendly, our estimates shows that CPU usage for Inference could reduce the power consumption of LLMs by 48.9% while providing production ready throughput and latency.

Large language models (LLMs) are routinely pre-trained on billions of tokens, only to restart the process over again once new data becomes available. A much cheaper and more efficient solution would be to enable the continual pre-training of these models, i.e. updating pre-trained models with new data instead of re-training them from scratch. However, the distribution shift induced by novel data typically results in degraded performance on past data. Taking a step towards efficient continual pre-training, in this work, we examine the effect of different warm-up strategies. Our hypothesis is that the learning rate must be re-increased to improve compute efficiency when training on a new dataset. We study the warmup phase of models pre-trained on the Pile (upstream data, 300B tokens) as we continue to pre-train on SlimPajama (downstream data, 297B tokens), following a linear warmup and cosine decay schedule. We conduct all experiments on the Pythia 410M language model architecture and evaluate performance through validation perplexity. We experiment with different pre-training checkpoints, various maximum learning rates, and various warmup lengths. Our results show that while rewarming models first increases the loss on upstream and downstream data, in the longer run it improves the downstream performance, outperforming models trained from scratchx2013even for a large downstream dataset.

Several recent advances in AI systems (e.g., Tree-of-Thoughts and Program-Aided Language Models) solve problems by providing a "scaffolding" program that structures multiple calls to language models to generate better outputs. A scaffolding program is written in a programming language such as Python. In this work, we use a language-model-infused scaffolding program to improve itself. We start with a seed "improver" that improves an input program according to a given utility function by querying a language model several times and returning the best solution. We then run this seed improver to improve itself. Across a small set of downstream tasks, the resulting improved improver generates programs with significantly better performance than its seed improver. Afterward, we analyze the variety of self-improvement strategies proposed by the language model, including beam search, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing. Since the language models themselves are not altered, this is not full recursive self-improvement. Nonetheless, it demonstrates that a modern language model, GPT-4 in our proof-of-concept experiments, is capable of writing code that can call itself to improve itself. We critically consider concerns around the development of self-improving technologies and evaluate the frequency with which the generated code bypasses a sandbox.

The ability to plan a course of action that achieves a desired state of affairs has long been considered a core competence of intelligent agents and has been an integral part of AI research since its inception. With the advent of large language models (LLMs), there has been considerable interest in the question of whether or not they possess such planning abilities. PlanBench, an extensible benchmark we developed in 2022, soon after the release of GPT3, has remained an important tool for evaluating the planning abilities of LLMs. Despite the slew of new private and open source LLMs since GPT3, progress on this benchmark has been surprisingly slow. OpenAI claims that their recent o1 (Strawberry) model has been specifically constructed and trained to escape the normal limitations of autoregressive LLMs--making it a new kind of model: a Large Reasoning Model (LRM). Using this development as a catalyst, this paper takes a comprehensive look at how well current LLMs and new LRMs do on PlanBench. As we shall see, while o1's performance is a quantum improvement on the benchmark, outpacing the competition, it is still far from saturating it. This improvement also brings to the fore questions about accuracy, efficiency, and guarantees which must be considered before deploying such systems.

Neural networks often suffer from catastrophic interference (CI): performance on previously learned tasks drops off significantly when learning a new task. This contrasts strongly with humans, who can sequentially learn new tasks without appreciably forgetting previous tasks. Prior work has explored various techniques for mitigating CI such as regularization, rehearsal, generative replay, and distillation methods. The current work takes a different approach, one guided by cognitive science research showing that in naturalistic environments, the probability of encountering a task decreases as a power-law of the time since it was last performed. We argue that a realistic evaluation of techniques for the mitigation of CI should be performed in simulated naturalistic learning environments. Thus, we evaluate the extent of mitigation of CI when training simple rehearsal-based methods in power-law environments similar to the ones humans face. Our work explores this novel rehearsal-based approach for a domain-incremental task: learning permutations in the MNIST task. We compare our rehearsal environment with other baselines to show its efficacy in promoting continual learning. Additionally, we investigate whether this environment shows forward facilitation, i.e., faster learning of later tasks. Next, we explore the robustness of our learning environment to the number of tasks, model size, and amount of data rehearsed after each task. Notably, our results show that the performance is comparable or superior to that of models trained using popular regularization methods and also to rehearsals in non-power-law environments. The benefits of this training paradigm include simplicity and the lack of a need for extra neural circuitry. In addition, because our method is orthogonal to other methods, future research can combine training in power-law environments with other continual learning mechanisms.

The performance of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems has constantly increased in state-of-the-art development. However, performance tends to decrease considerably in more challenging conditions (e.g., background noise, multiple speaker social conversations) and with more atypical speakers (e.g., children, non-native speakers or people with speech disorders), which signifies that general improvements do not necessarily transfer to applications that rely on ASR, e.g., educational software for younger students or language learners. In this study, we focus on the gap in performance between recognition results for native and non-native, read and spontaneous, Swedish utterances transcribed by different ASR services. We compare the recognition results using Word Error Rate and analyze the linguistic factors that may generate the observed transcription errors.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Training models to effectively use test-time compute is crucial for improving the reasoning performance of LLMs. Current methods mostly do so via fine-tuning on search traces or running RL with 0/1 outcome reward, but do these approaches efficiently utilize test-time compute? Would these approaches continue to scale as the budget improves? In this paper, we try to answer these questions. We formalize the problem of optimizing test-time compute as a meta-reinforcement learning (RL) problem, which provides a principled perspective on spending test-time compute. This perspective enables us to view the long output stream from the LLM as consisting of several episodes run at test time and leads us to use a notion of cumulative regret over output tokens as a way to measure the efficacy of test-time compute. Akin to how RL algorithms can best tradeoff exploration and exploitation over training, minimizing cumulative regret would also provide the best balance between exploration and exploitation in the token stream. While we show that state-of-the-art models do not minimize regret, one can do so by maximizing a dense reward bonus in conjunction with the outcome 0/1 reward RL. This bonus is the ''progress'' made by each subsequent block in the output stream, quantified by the change in the likelihood of eventual success. Using these insights, we develop Meta Reinforcement Fine-Tuning, or MRT, a new class of fine-tuning methods for optimizing test-time compute. MRT leads to a 2-3x relative gain in performance and roughly a 1.5x gain in token efficiency for math reasoning compared to outcome-reward RL.

Alignment is crucial for training large language models. The predominant strategy is Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as the de-facto algorithm. Yet, PPO is known to struggle with computational inefficiency, a challenge that this paper aims to address. We identify three important properties of RLHF tasks: fast simulation, deterministic transitions, and trajectory-level rewards, which are not leveraged in PPO. Based on these properties, we develop ReMax, a new algorithm tailored for RLHF. The design of ReMax builds on the celebrated algorithm REINFORCE but is enhanced with a new variance-reduction technique. ReMax offers threefold advantages over PPO: first, it is simple to implement with just 6 lines of code. It further eliminates more than 4 hyper-parameters in PPO, which are laborious to tune. Second, ReMax reduces memory usage by about 50%. To illustrate, PPO runs out of memory when fine-tuning a Llama2-7B model on A100-80GB GPUs, whereas ReMax can support the training. Even though memory-efficient techniques (e.g., ZeRO and offload) are employed for PPO to afford training, ReMax can utilize a larger batch size to increase throughput. Third, in terms of wall-clock time, PPO is about twice as slow as ReMax per iteration. Importantly, these improvements do not sacrifice task performance. We hypothesize that these advantages can be maintained in larger-scale models.

Generative AI tools hold promise to increase human productivity. This paper presents results from a controlled experiment with GitHub Copilot, an AI pair programmer. Recruited software developers were asked to implement an HTTP server in JavaScript as quickly as possible. The treatment group, with access to the AI pair programmer, completed the task 55.8% faster than the control group. Observed heterogenous effects show promise for AI pair programmers to help people transition into software development careers.

The capabilities and adoption of deep neural networks (DNNs) grow at an exhilarating pace: Vision models accurately classify human actions in videos and identify cancerous tissue in medical scans as precisely than human experts; large language models answer wide-ranging questions, generate code, and write prose, becoming the topic of everyday dinner-table conversations. Even though their uses are exhilarating, the continually increasing model sizes and computational complexities have a dark side. The economic cost and negative environmental externalities of training and serving models is in evident disharmony with financial viability and climate action goals. Instead of pursuing yet another increase in predictive performance, this dissertation is dedicated to the improvement of neural network efficiency. Specifically, a core contribution addresses the efficiency aspects during online inference. Here, the concept of Continual Inference Networks (CINs) is proposed and explored across four publications. CINs extend prior state-of-the-art methods developed for offline processing of spatio-temporal data and reuse their pre-trained weights, improving their online processing efficiency by an order of magnitude. These advances are attained through a bottom-up computational reorganization and judicious architectural modifications. The benefit to online inference is demonstrated by reformulating several widely used network architectures into CINs, including 3D CNNs, ST-GCNs, and Transformer Encoders. An orthogonal contribution tackles the concurrent adaptation and computational acceleration of a large source model into multiple lightweight derived models. Drawing on fusible adapter networks and structured pruning, Structured Pruning Adapters achieve superior predictive accuracy under aggressive pruning using significantly fewer learned weights compared to fine-tuning with pruning.

The ability to acquire latent semantics is one of the key properties that determines the performance of language models. One convenient approach to invoke this ability is to prepend metadata (e.g. URLs, domains, and styles) at the beginning of texts in the pre-training data, making it easier for the model to access latent semantics before observing the entire text. Previous studies have reported that this technique actually improves the performance of trained models in downstream tasks; however, this improvement has been observed only in specific downstream tasks, without consistent enhancement in average next-token prediction loss. To understand this phenomenon, we closely investigate how prepending metadata during pre-training affects model performance by examining its behavior using artificial data. Interestingly, we found that this approach produces both positive and negative effects on the downstream tasks. We demonstrate that the effectiveness of the approach depends on whether latent semantics can be inferred from the downstream task's prompt. Specifically, through investigations using data generated by probabilistic context-free grammars, we show that training with metadata helps improve model's performance when the given context is long enough to infer the latent semantics. In contrast, the technique negatively impacts performance when the context lacks the necessary information to make an accurate posterior inference.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Comprehensively understanding and accurately predicting the performance of large language models across diverse downstream tasks has emerged as a pivotal challenge in NLP research. The pioneering scaling law on downstream works demonstrated intrinsic similarities within model families and utilized such similarities for performance prediction. However, they tend to overlook the similarities between model families and only consider design factors listed in the original scaling law. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel framework, Collaborative Performance Prediction (CPP), which significantly enhances prediction accuracy by leveraging the historical performance of various models on downstream tasks and other design factors for both model and task. We also collect a collaborative data sourced from online platforms containing both historical performance and additional design factors. With the support of the collaborative data, CPP not only surpasses traditional scaling laws in predicting the performance of scaled LLMs but also facilitates a detailed analysis of factor importance, an area previously overlooked.

Self-improvement methods enable large language models (LLMs) to generate solutions themselves and iteratively train on filtered, high-quality rationales. This process proves effective and reduces the reliance on human supervision in LLMs' reasoning, but the performance soon plateaus. We delve into the process and find that models tend to over-sample on easy queries and under-sample on queries they have yet to master. As iterations proceed, this imbalance in sampling is exacerbated, leading to a long-tail distribution where solutions to difficult queries almost diminish. This phenomenon limits the performance gain of self-improving models. A straightforward solution is brute-force sampling to balance the distribution, which significantly raises computational costs. In this paper, we introduce Guided Self-Improvement (GSI), a strategy aimed at improving the efficiency of sampling challenging heavy-tailed data. It leverages Socratic-style guidance signals to help LLM reasoning with complex queries, reducing the exploration effort and minimizing computational overhead. Experiments on four models across diverse mathematical tasks show that GSI strikes a balance between performance and efficiency, while also being effective on held-out tasks.

As language model (LM) outputs get more and more natural, it is becoming more difficult than ever to evaluate their quality. Simultaneously, increasing LMs' "thinking" time through scaling test-time compute has proven an effective technique to solve challenging problems in domains such as math and code. This raises a natural question: can an LM's evaluation capability also be improved by spending more test-time compute? To answer this, we investigate employing reasoning models-LMs that natively generate long chain-of-thought reasoning-as evaluators. Specifically, we examine methods to leverage more test-time compute by (1) using reasoning models, and (2) prompting these models to evaluate not only the response as a whole (i.e., outcome evaluation) but also assess each step in the response separately (i.e., process evaluation). In experiments, we observe that the evaluator's performance improves monotonically when generating more reasoning tokens, similar to the trends observed in LM-based generation. Furthermore, we use these more accurate evaluators to rerank multiple generations, and demonstrate that spending more compute at evaluation time can be as effective as using more compute at generation time in improving an LM's problem-solving capability.

This report details the development and key achievements of our latest language model designed for custom large language models. The advancements introduced include a novel Online Data Scheduler that supports flexible training data adjustments and curriculum learning. The model's architecture is fortified with state-of-the-art techniques such as Rotary Positional Embeddings, QK-LayerNorm, and a specially crafted multilingual tokenizer to enhance stability and performance. Moreover, our robust training framework incorporates advanced monitoring and rapid recovery features to ensure optimal efficiency. Our Wonton 7B model has demonstrated competitive performance on a range of multilingual and English benchmarks. Future developments will prioritize narrowing the performance gap with more extensively trained models, thereby enhancing the model's real-world efficacy and adaptability.GitHub: https://github.com/nyonicai/nyonic-public

The research community has proposed copious modifications to the Transformer architecture since it was introduced over three years ago, relatively few of which have seen widespread adoption. In this paper, we comprehensively evaluate many of these modifications in a shared experimental setting that covers most of the common uses of the Transformer in natural language processing. Surprisingly, we find that most modifications do not meaningfully improve performance. Furthermore, most of the Transformer variants we found beneficial were either developed in the same codebase that we used or are relatively minor changes. We conjecture that performance improvements may strongly depend on implementation details and correspondingly make some recommendations for improving the generality of experimental results.

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the GMADL loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the GMADL versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, GMADL solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, GMADL also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

RAG (Retrieval Augmented Generation) allows LLMs (large language models) to generate better responses with external knowledge, but using more external knowledge often improves generation quality at the expense of response delay. Prior work either reduces the response delay (through better scheduling of RAG queries) or strives to maximize quality (which involves tuning the RAG workflow), but they fall short in optimizing the tradeoff between the delay and quality of RAG responses. This paper presents RAGServe, the first RAG system that jointly schedules queries and adapts the key RAG configurations of each query, such as the number of retrieved text chunks and synthesis methods, in order to balance quality optimization and response delay reduction. Using 4 popular RAG-QA datasets, we show that compared with the state-of-the-art RAG optimization schemes, RAGServe reduces the generation latency by 1.64-2.54times without sacrificing generation quality.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

In the heart of "rhythm games" - games where players must perform actions in sync with a piece of music - are "charts", the directives to be given to players. We newly formulate chart generation as a sequence generation task and train a Transformer using a large dataset. We also introduce tempo-informed preprocessing and training procedures, some of which are suggested to be integral for a successful training. Our model is found to outperform the baselines on a large dataset, and is also found to benefit from pretraining and finetuning.

Fueled by their remarkable ability to tackle diverse tasks across multiple domains, large language models (LLMs) have grown at an unprecedented rate, with some recent models containing trillions of parameters. This growth is accompanied by substantial computational challenges, particularly regarding the memory and compute resources required for training and fine-tuning. Numerous approaches have been explored to address these issues, such as LoRA. While these methods are effective for fine-tuning, their application to pre-training is significantly more challenging due to the need to learn vast datasets. Motivated by this issue, we aim to address the following questions: Can parameter- or memory-efficient methods enhance pre-training efficiency while achieving performance comparable to full-model training? How can the performance gap be narrowed? To this end, the contributions of this work are the following. (1) We begin by conducting a comprehensive survey that summarizes state-of-the-art methods for efficient pre-training. (2) We perform a benchmark evaluation of several representative memory efficient pre-training approaches to comprehensively evaluate their performance across model sizes. We observe that with a proper choice of optimizer and hyperparameters, full-rank training delivers the best performance, as expected. We also notice that incorporating high-rank updates in low-rank approaches is the key to improving their performance. (3) Finally, we propose two practical techniques, namely weight refactorization and momentum reset, to enhance the performance of efficient pre-training methods. We observe that applying these techniques to the low-rank method (on a 1B model) can achieve a lower perplexity than popular memory efficient algorithms such as GaLore and Fira, while simultaneously using about 25% less memory.

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Developing and certifying collision avoidance systems often rely on the extensive use of Monte Carlo collision risk analysis simulations using probabilistic models of aircraft flight. To train these models, high performance computing resources are required. We've prototyped a high performance computing workflow designed and deployed on the Lincoln Laboratory Supercomputing Center to process billions of observations of aircraft. However, the prototype has various computational and storage bottlenecks that limited rapid or more comprehensive analyses and models. In response, we have developed a novel workflow to take advantage of various job launch and task distribution technologies to improve performance. The workflow was benchmarked using two datasets of observations of aircraft, including a new dataset focused on the environment around aerodromes. Optimizing how the workflow was parallelized drastically reduced the execution time from weeks to days.

Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear. To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate. We first timed humans with relevant domain expertise on a combination of RE-Bench, HCAST, and 66 novel shorter tasks. On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furthermore, frontier AI time horizon has been doubling approximately every seven months since 2019, though the trend may have accelerated in 2024. The increase in AI models' time horizons seems to be primarily driven by greater reliability and ability to adapt to mistakes, combined with better logical reasoning and tool use capabilities. We discuss the limitations of our results -- including their degree of external validity -- and the implications of increased autonomy for dangerous capabilities. If these results generalize to real-world software tasks, extrapolation of this trend predicts that within 5 years, AI systems will be capable of automating many software tasks that currently take humans a month.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Recent advancements in large vision-language models (LVLMs), such as GPT4-V and LLaVA, have been substantial. LLaVA's modular architecture, in particular, offers a blend of simplicity and efficiency. Recent works mainly focus on introducing more pre-training and instruction tuning data to improve model's performance. This paper delves into the often-neglected aspects of data efficiency during pre-training and the selection process for instruction tuning datasets. Our research indicates that merely increasing the size of pre-training data does not guarantee improved performance and may, in fact, lead to its degradation. Furthermore, we have established a pipeline to pinpoint the most efficient instruction tuning (SFT) dataset, implying that not all SFT data utilized in existing studies are necessary. The primary objective of this paper is not to introduce a state-of-the-art model, but rather to serve as a roadmap for future research, aiming to optimize data usage during pre-training and fine-tuning processes to enhance the performance of vision-language models.

Large language models (LLMs) perform better when they produce step-by-step, "Chain-of-Thought" (CoT) reasoning before answering a question, but it is unclear if the stated reasoning is a faithful explanation of the model's actual reasoning (i.e., its process for answering the question). We investigate hypotheses for how CoT reasoning may be unfaithful, by examining how the model predictions change when we intervene on the CoT (e.g., by adding mistakes or paraphrasing it). Models show large variation across tasks in how strongly they condition on the CoT when predicting their answer, sometimes relying heavily on the CoT and other times primarily ignoring it. CoT's performance boost does not seem to come from CoT's added test-time compute alone or from information encoded via the particular phrasing of the CoT. As models become larger and more capable, they produce less faithful reasoning on most tasks we study. Overall, our results suggest that CoT can be faithful if the circumstances such as the model size and task are carefully chosen.

In many practical applications of machine learning data arrives sequentially over time in large chunks. Practitioners have then to decide how to allocate their computational budget in order to obtain the best performance at any point in time. Online learning theory for convex optimization suggests that the best strategy is to use data as soon as it arrives. However, this might not be the best strategy when using deep non-linear networks, particularly when these perform multiple passes over each chunk of data rendering the overall distribution non i.i.d.. In this paper, we formalize this learning setting in the simplest scenario in which each data chunk is drawn from the same underlying distribution, and make a first attempt at empirically answering the following questions: How long should the learner wait before training on the newly arrived chunks? What architecture should the learner adopt? Should the learner increase capacity over time as more data is observed? We probe this learning setting using convolutional neural networks trained on classic computer vision benchmarks as well as a large transformer model trained on a large-scale language modeling task. Code is available at www.github.com/facebookresearch/ALMA.

We demonstrate LLM agent specification gaming by instructing models to win against a chess engine. We find reasoning models like o1 preview and DeepSeek-R1 will often hack the benchmark by default, while language models like GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet need to be told that normal play won't work to hack. We improve upon prior work like (Hubinger et al., 2024; Meinke et al., 2024; Weij et al., 2024) by using realistic task prompts and avoiding excess nudging. Our results suggest reasoning models may resort to hacking to solve difficult problems, as observed in OpenAI (2024)'s o1 Docker escape during cyber capabilities testing.

Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly Code LLMs, have demonstrated impressive performance in code generation. Current research primarily focuses on the correctness of generated code, while efficiency remains less explored. Recent works have focused on modifying the initial version of the code to improve its efficiency. However, such refinements are limited by the algorithmic design and overall logic of the initial code, resulting in only incremental improvements. In contrast, when human developers write high-quality code, they typically begin by designing several potential solutions at the logical level, evaluating various algorithms and their complexities, and then proceeding to implement and optimize the solution. In this study, we introduce \tool: Large Language Model for Code Efficiency, a novel framework that enables LLMs to generate code that balances both efficiency and correctness. Specifically, \tool divides the efficiency optimization process into two domains: algorithmic exploration in the logic domain and implementation optimization in the code domain. The correctness of the code is then guaranteed through a synthetic test case refinement process. This approach, which prioritizes efficiency before ensuring correctness, offers a new paradigm for efficient code generation. Experiments demonstrate that \tool consistently improves both efficiency and correctness, achieving new state-of-the-art performance in code efficiency benchmarks across various LLM backbones.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

In coal-fired power plants, it is critical to improve the operational efficiency of boilers for sustainability. In this work, we formulate real-time boiler control as an optimization problem that looks for the best distribution of temperature in different zones and oxygen content from the flue to improve the boiler's stability and energy efficiency. We employ an efficient algorithm by integrating appropriate machine learning and optimization techniques. We obtain a large dataset collected from a real boiler for more than two months from our industry partner, and conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Automatic evaluation of natural language generation has long been an elusive goal in NLP.A recent paradigm fine-tunes pre-trained language models to emulate human judgements for a particular task and evaluation criterion. Inspired by the generalization ability of instruction-tuned models, we propose a learned metric based on instruction tuning. To test our approach, we collected HEAP, a dataset of human judgements across various NLG tasks and evaluation criteria. Our findings demonstrate that instruction tuning language models on HEAP yields good performance on many evaluation tasks, though some criteria are less trivial to learn than others. Further, jointly training on multiple tasks can yield additional performance improvements, which can be beneficial for future tasks with little to no human annotated data.

Over recent years, an increasing amount of compute and data has been poured into training large language models (LLMs), usually by doing one-pass learning on as many tokens as possible randomly selected from large-scale web corpora. While training on ever-larger portions of the internet leads to consistent performance improvements, the size of these improvements diminishes with scale, and there has been little work exploring the effect of data selection on pre-training and downstream performance beyond simple de-duplication methods such as MinHash. Here, we show that careful data selection (on top of de-duplicated data) via pre-trained model embeddings can speed up training (20% efficiency gains) and improves average downstream accuracy on 16 NLP tasks (up to 2%) at the 6.7B model scale. Furthermore, we show that repeating data intelligently consistently outperforms baseline training (while repeating random data performs worse than baseline training). Our results indicate that clever data selection can significantly improve LLM pre-training, calls into question the common practice of training for a single epoch on as much data as possible, and demonstrates a path to keep improving our models past the limits of randomly sampling web data.

Mobile devices are transforming the way people interact with computers, and speech interfaces to applications are ever more important. Automatic Speech Recognition systems recently published are very accurate, but often require powerful machinery (specialised Graphical Processing Units) for inference, which makes them impractical to run on commodity devices, especially in streaming mode. Impressed by the accuracy of, but dissatisfied with the inference times of the baseline Kazakh ASR model of (Khassanov et al.,2021) when not using a GPU, we trained a new baseline acoustic model (on the same dataset as the aforementioned paper) and three language models for use with the Coqui STT framework. Results look promising, but further epochs of training and parameter sweeping or, alternatively, limiting the vocabulary that the ASR system must support, is needed to reach a production-level accuracy.

Generative AI is being leveraged to solve a variety of computer-use tasks involving desktop applications. State-of-the-art systems have focused solely on improving accuracy on leading benchmarks. However, these systems are practically unusable due to extremely high end-to-end latency (e.g., tens of minutes) for tasks that typically take humans just a few minutes to complete. To understand the cause behind this and to guide future developments of computer agents, we conduct the first study on the temporal performance of computer-use agents on OSWorld, the flagship benchmark in computer-use AI. We find that large model calls for planning and reflection account for the majority of the overall latency, and as an agent uses more steps to complete a task, each successive step can take 3x longer than steps at the beginning of a task. We then construct OSWorld-Human, a manually annotated version of the original OSWorld dataset that contains a human-determined trajectory for each task. We evaluate 16 agents on their efficiency using OSWorld-Human and found that even the highest-scoring agents on OSWorld take 1.4-2.7x more steps than necessary.

Generative adversarial networks (GAN) are a powerful subclass of generative models. Despite a very rich research activity leading to numerous interesting GAN algorithms, it is still very hard to assess which algorithm(s) perform better than others. We conduct a neutral, multi-faceted large-scale empirical study on state-of-the art models and evaluation measures. We find that most models can reach similar scores with enough hyperparameter optimization and random restarts. This suggests that improvements can arise from a higher computational budget and tuning more than fundamental algorithmic changes. To overcome some limitations of the current metrics, we also propose several data sets on which precision and recall can be computed. Our experimental results suggest that future GAN research should be based on more systematic and objective evaluation procedures. Finally, we did not find evidence that any of the tested algorithms consistently outperforms the non-saturating GAN introduced in goodfellow2014generative.

Large language models are pre-trained on ever-growing token budgets under the assumption that better pre-training performance translates to improved downstream models. In this work, we challenge this assumption and show that extended pre-training can make models harder to fine-tune, leading to degraded final performance. We term this phenomenon catastrophic overtraining. For example, the instruction-tuned OLMo-1B model pre-trained on 3T tokens leads to over 2% worse performance on multiple standard LLM benchmarks than its 2.3T token counterpart. Through controlled experiments and theoretical analysis, we show that catastrophic overtraining arises from a systematic increase in the broad sensitivity of pre-trained parameters to modifications, including but not limited to fine-tuning. Our findings call for a critical reassessment of pre-training design that considers the downstream adaptability of the model.

Human intelligence thrives on the concept of cognitive synergy, where collaboration and information integration among different cognitive processes yield superior outcomes compared to individual cognitive processes in isolation. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance as general task-solving agents, they still struggle with tasks that require intensive domain knowledge and complex reasoning. In this work, we propose Solo Performance Prompting (SPP), which transforms a single LLM into a cognitive synergist by engaging in multi-turn self-collaboration with multiple personas. A cognitive synergist refers to an intelligent agent that collaborates with multiple minds, combining their individual strengths and knowledge, to enhance problem-solving and overall performance in complex tasks. By dynamically identifying and simulating different personas based on task inputs, SPP unleashes the potential of cognitive synergy in LLMs. We have discovered that assigning multiple, fine-grained personas in LLMs elicits better problem-solving abilities compared to using a single or fixed number of personas. We evaluate SPP on three challenging tasks: Trivia Creative Writing, Codenames Collaborative, and Logic Grid Puzzle, encompassing both knowledge-intensive and reasoning-intensive types. Unlike previous works, such as Chain-of-Thought, that solely enhance the reasoning abilities in LLMs, SPP effectively elicits internal knowledge acquisition abilities, reduces hallucination, and maintains strong reasoning capabilities. Code, data, and prompts can be found at: https://github.com/MikeWangWZHL/Solo-Performance-Prompting.git.

Although large language models (LLMs) have been largely successful in generating functionally correct programs, conditioning models to produce efficient solutions while ensuring correctness remains a challenge. Further, unreliability in benchmarking code efficiency is a hurdle across varying hardware specifications for popular interpreted languages such as Python. In this paper, we present ECCO, a reproducible benchmark for evaluating program efficiency via two paradigms: natural language (NL) based code generation and history-based code editing. On ECCO, we adapt and thoroughly investigate the three most promising existing LLM-based approaches: in-context learning, iterative refinement with execution or NL feedback, and fine-tuning conditioned on execution and editing history. While most methods degrade functional correctness and moderately increase program efficiency, we find that adding execution information often helps maintain functional correctness, and NL feedback enhances more on efficiency. We release our benchmark to support future work on LLM-based generation of efficient code.

Recent work in language modeling has raised the possibility of self-improvement, where a language models evaluates and refines its own generations to achieve higher performance without external feedback. It is impossible for this self-improvement to create information that is not already in the model, so why should we expect that this will lead to improved capabilities? We offer a new perspective on the capabilities of self-improvement through a lens we refer to as sharpening. Motivated by the observation that language models are often better at verifying response quality than they are at generating correct responses, we formalize self-improvement as using the model itself as a verifier during post-training in order to ``sharpen'' the model to one placing large mass on high-quality sequences, thereby amortizing the expensive inference-time computation of generating good sequences. We begin by introducing a new statistical framework for sharpening in which the learner aims to sharpen a pre-trained base policy via sample access, and establish fundamental limits. Then we analyze two natural families of self-improvement algorithms based on SFT and RLHF. We find that (i) the SFT-based approach is minimax optimal whenever the initial model has sufficient coverage, but (ii) the RLHF-based approach can improve over SFT-based self-improvement by leveraging online exploration, bypassing the need for coverage. Finally, we empirically validate the sharpening mechanism via inference-time and amortization experiments. We view these findings as a starting point toward a foundational understanding that can guide the design and evaluation of self-improvement algorithms.

Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) inference exhibits low hardware utilization due to the strict data dependencies across time-steps. Batching multiple requests can increase throughput. However, RNN batching requires a large amount of padding since the batched input sequences may largely differ in length. Schemes that dynamically update the batch every few time-steps avoid padding. However, they require executing different RNN layers in a short timespan, decreasing energy efficiency. Hence, we propose E-BATCH, a low-latency and energy-efficient batching scheme tailored to RNN accelerators. It consists of a runtime system and effective hardware support. The runtime concatenates multiple sequences to create large batches, resulting in substantial energy savings. Furthermore, the accelerator notifies it when the evaluation of a sequence is done, so that a new sequence can be immediately added to a batch, thus largely reducing the amount of padding. E-BATCH dynamically controls the number of time-steps evaluated per batch to achieve the best trade-off between latency and energy efficiency for the given hardware platform. We evaluate E-BATCH on top of E-PUR and TPU. In E-PUR, E-BATCH improves throughput by 1.8x and energy-efficiency by 3.6x, whereas in TPU, it improves throughput by 2.1x and energy-efficiency by 1.6x, over the state-of-the-art.

This paper presents a simple, effective, and cost-efficient strategy to improve LLM performance by scaling test-time compute. Our strategy builds upon the repeated-sampling-then-voting framework, with a novel twist: incorporating multiple models, even weaker ones, to leverage their complementary strengths that potentially arise from diverse training data and paradigms. By using consistency as a signal, our strategy dynamically switches between models. Theoretical analysis highlights the efficiency and performance advantages of our strategy. Extensive experiments on six datasets demonstrate that our strategy not only outperforms self-consistency and state-of-the-art multi-agent debate approaches, but also significantly reduces inference costs. Additionally, ModelSwitch requires only a few comparable LLMs to achieve optimal performance and can be extended with verification methods, demonstrating the potential of leveraging multiple LLMs in the generation-verification paradigm.

Effective decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for handling intricate tasks. However, existing approaches prioritize performance but often overlook the balance between effectiveness and computational cost. To address this, we first introduce the 3E Criteria to systematically assess the cost-effectiveness of search strategies, revealing that existing methods often trade significant efficiency for marginal performance gains. To improve LLM decision-making while maintaining efficiency, we propose the Speculative Reward Model (SRM), a plug-and-play framework that seamlessly integrates with existing search strategies. Specifically, SRM employs an external reward assigner to predict optimal actions, reducing reliance on LLMs' internal self-evaluation. And a speculative verification mechanism is used to prune suboptimal choices and guide the search toward more promising steps. We evaluate SRM on several complex decision-making tasks including mathematical reasoning, planning and numerical reasoning in specialized domains. Experimental results show that SRM reduces costs to 1/10 of the original search framework on average while maintaining effectiveness.

Recent research has leveraged large language model multi-agent systems for complex problem-solving while trying to reduce the manual effort required to build them, driving the development of automated agent workflow optimization methods. However, existing methods remain inflexible due to representational limitations, a lack of adaptability, and poor scalability when relying on discrete optimization techniques. We address these challenges with ScoreFlow, a simple yet high-performance framework that leverages efficient gradient-based optimization in a continuous space. ScoreFlow incorporates Score-DPO, a novel variant of the direct preference optimization method that accounts for quantitative feedback. Across six benchmarks spanning question answering, coding, and mathematical reasoning, ScoreFlow achieves an 8.2% improvement over existing baselines. Moreover, it empowers smaller models to outperform larger ones with lower inference costs. Project: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/ScoreFlow

This research aims to build generative language models specialized for the legal domain. The manuscript presents the development of LexGPT models based on GPT-J models and pre-trained with Pile of Law. The foundation model built in this manuscript is the initial step for the development of future applications in the legal domain, such as further training with reinforcement learning from human feedback. Another objective of this manuscript is to assist legal professionals in utilizing language models through the ``No Code'' approach. By fine-tuning models with specialized data and without modifying any source code, legal professionals can create custom language models for downstream tasks with minimum effort and technical knowledge. The downstream task in this manuscript is to turn a LexGPT model into a classifier, although the performance is notably lower than the state-of-the-art result. How to enhance downstream task performance without modifying the model or its source code is a research topic for future exploration.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Optimizing scientific software is a difficult task because codebases are often large and complex, and performance can depend upon several factors including the algorithm, its implementation, and hardware among others. Causes of poor performance can originate from disparate sources and be difficult to diagnose. Recent years have seen a multitude of work that use large language models (LLMs) to assist in software development tasks. However, these tools are trained to model the distribution of code as text, and are not specifically designed to understand performance aspects of code. In this work, we introduce a reinforcement learning based methodology to align the outputs of code LLMs with performance. This allows us to build upon the current code modeling capabilities of LLMs and extend them to generate better performing code. We demonstrate that our fine-tuned model improves the expected speedup of generated code over base models for a set of benchmark tasks from 0.9 to 1.6 for serial code and 1.9 to 4.5 for OpenMP code.

We introduce PaLM 2, a new state-of-the-art language model that has better multilingual and reasoning capabilities and is more compute-efficient than its predecessor PaLM. PaLM 2 is a Transformer-based model trained using a mixture of objectives. Through extensive evaluations on English and multilingual language, and reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that PaLM 2 has significantly improved quality on downstream tasks across different model sizes, while simultaneously exhibiting faster and more efficient inference compared to PaLM. This improved efficiency enables broader deployment while also allowing the model to respond faster, for a more natural pace of interaction. PaLM 2 demonstrates robust reasoning capabilities exemplified by large improvements over PaLM on BIG-Bench and other reasoning tasks. PaLM 2 exhibits stable performance on a suite of responsible AI evaluations, and enables inference-time control over toxicity without additional overhead or impact on other capabilities. Overall, PaLM 2 achieves state-of-the-art performance across a diverse set of tasks and capabilities. When discussing the PaLM 2 family, it is important to distinguish between pre-trained models (of various sizes), fine-tuned variants of these models, and the user-facing products that use these models. In particular, user-facing products typically include additional pre- and post-processing steps. Additionally, the underlying models may evolve over time. Therefore, one should not expect the performance of user-facing products to exactly match the results reported in this report.

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for mathematical tasks, the broader impact of this approach on other tasks remains less clear. In this work, we investigate the benefits and limitations of scaling methods across nine state-of-the-art models and eight challenging tasks, including math and STEM reasoning, calendar planning, NP-hard problems, navigation, and spatial reasoning. We compare conventional models (e.g., GPT-4o) with models fine-tuned for inference-time scaling (e.g., o1) through evaluation protocols that involve repeated model calls, either independently or sequentially with feedback. These evaluations approximate lower and upper performance bounds and potential for future performance improvements for each model, whether through enhanced training or multi-model inference systems. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals that the advantages of inference-time scaling vary across tasks and diminish as problem complexity increases. In addition, simply using more tokens does not necessarily translate to higher accuracy in these challenging regimes. Results from multiple independent runs with conventional models using perfect verifiers show that, for some tasks, these models can achieve performance close to the average performance of today's most advanced reasoning models. However, for other tasks, a significant performance gap remains, even in very high scaling regimes. Encouragingly, all models demonstrate significant gains when inference is further scaled with perfect verifiers or strong feedback, suggesting ample potential for future improvements.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been successful in various domains like robotics, game playing, and simulation. While RL agents have shown impressive capabilities in their specific tasks, they insufficiently adapt to new tasks. In supervised learning, this adaptation problem is addressed by large-scale pre-training followed by fine-tuning to new down-stream tasks. Recently, pre-training on multiple tasks has been gaining traction in RL. However, fine-tuning a pre-trained model often suffers from catastrophic forgetting, that is, the performance on the pre-training tasks deteriorates when fine-tuning on new tasks. To investigate the catastrophic forgetting phenomenon, we first jointly pre-train a model on datasets from two benchmark suites, namely Meta-World and DMControl. Then, we evaluate and compare a variety of fine-tuning methods prevalent in natural language processing, both in terms of performance on new tasks, and how well performance on pre-training tasks is retained. Our study shows that with most fine-tuning approaches, the performance on pre-training tasks deteriorates significantly. Therefore, we propose a novel method, Learning-to-Modulate (L2M), that avoids the degradation of learned skills by modulating the information flow of the frozen pre-trained model via a learnable modulation pool. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Continual-World benchmark, while retaining performance on the pre-training tasks. Finally, to aid future research in this area, we release a dataset encompassing 50 Meta-World and 16 DMControl tasks.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Inference with transformer-based language models begins with a prompt processing step. In this step, the model generates the first output token and stores the KV cache needed for future generation steps. This prompt processing step can be computationally expensive, taking 10s of seconds or more for billion-parameter models on edge devices when prompt lengths or batch sizes rise. This degrades user experience by introducing significant latency into the model's outputs. To reduce the time spent producing the first output (known as the ``time to first token'', or TTFT) of a pretrained model, we introduce a novel method called KV Prediction. In our method, a small auxiliary model is used to process the prompt and produce an approximation of the KV cache used by a base model. This approximated KV cache is then used with the base model for autoregressive generation without the need to query the auxiliary model again. We demonstrate that our method produces a pareto-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-off when compared to baselines. On TriviaQA, we demonstrate relative accuracy improvements in the range of 15%-50% across a range of TTFT FLOPs budgets. We also demonstrate accuracy improvements of up to 30% on HumanEval python code completion at fixed TTFT FLOPs budgets. Additionally, we benchmark models on an Apple M2 Pro CPU and demonstrate that our improvement in FLOPs translates to a TTFT speedup on hardware. We release our code at https://github.com/apple/corenet/tree/main/projects/kv-prediction .

Nearly all jurisdictions in the United States require a professional license exam, commonly referred to as "the Bar Exam," as a precondition for law practice. To even sit for the exam, most jurisdictions require that an applicant completes at least seven years of post-secondary education, including three years at an accredited law school. In addition, most test-takers also undergo weeks to months of further, exam-specific preparation. Despite this significant investment of time and capital, approximately one in five test-takers still score under the rate required to pass the exam on their first try. In the face of a complex task that requires such depth of knowledge, what, then, should we expect of the state of the art in "AI?" In this research, we document our experimental evaluation of the performance of OpenAI's `text-davinci-003` model, often-referred to as GPT-3.5, on the multistate multiple choice (MBE) section of the exam. While we find no benefit in fine-tuning over GPT-3.5's zero-shot performance at the scale of our training data, we do find that hyperparameter optimization and prompt engineering positively impacted GPT-3.5's zero-shot performance. For best prompt and parameters, GPT-3.5 achieves a headline correct rate of 50.3% on a complete NCBE MBE practice exam, significantly in excess of the 25% baseline guessing rate, and performs at a passing rate for both Evidence and Torts. GPT-3.5's ranking of responses is also highly-correlated with correctness; its top two and top three choices are correct 71% and 88% of the time, respectively, indicating very strong non-entailment performance. While our ability to interpret these results is limited by nascent scientific understanding of LLMs and the proprietary nature of GPT, we believe that these results strongly suggest that an LLM will pass the MBE component of the Bar Exam in the near future.

Training algorithms, broadly construed, are an essential part of every deep learning pipeline. Training algorithm improvements that speed up training across a wide variety of workloads (e.g., better update rules, tuning protocols, learning rate schedules, or data selection schemes) could save time, save computational resources, and lead to better, more accurate, models. Unfortunately, as a community, we are currently unable to reliably identify training algorithm improvements, or even determine the state-of-the-art training algorithm. In this work, using concrete experiments, we argue that real progress in speeding up training requires new benchmarks that resolve three basic challenges faced by empirical comparisons of training algorithms: (1) how to decide when training is complete and precisely measure training time, (2) how to handle the sensitivity of measurements to exact workload details, and (3) how to fairly compare algorithms that require hyperparameter tuning. In order to address these challenges, we introduce a new, competitive, time-to-result benchmark using multiple workloads running on fixed hardware, the AlgoPerf: Training Algorithms benchmark. Our benchmark includes a set of workload variants that make it possible to detect benchmark submissions that are more robust to workload changes than current widely-used methods. Finally, we evaluate baseline submissions constructed using various optimizers that represent current practice, as well as other optimizers that have recently received attention in the literature. These baseline results collectively demonstrate the feasibility of our benchmark, show that non-trivial gaps between methods exist, and set a provisional state-of-the-art for future benchmark submissions to try and surpass.

When training neural networks, it has been widely observed that a large step size is essential in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for obtaining superior models. However, the effect of large step sizes on the success of SGD is not well understood theoretically. Several previous works have attributed this success to the stochastic noise present in SGD. However, we show through a novel set of experiments that the stochastic noise is not sufficient to explain good non-convex training, and that instead the effect of a large learning rate itself is essential for obtaining best performance.We demonstrate the same effects also in the noise-less case, i.e. for full-batch GD. We formally prove that GD with large step size -- on certain non-convex function classes -- follows a different trajectory than GD with a small step size, which can lead to convergence to a global minimum instead of a local one. Our settings provide a framework for future analysis which allows comparing algorithms based on behaviors that can not be observed in the traditional settings.

Large language models often struggle with length generalization and solving complex problem instances beyond their training distribution. We present a self-improvement approach where models iteratively generate and learn from their own solutions, progressively tackling harder problems while maintaining a standard transformer architecture. Across diverse tasks including arithmetic, string manipulation, and maze solving, self-improving enables models to solve problems far beyond their initial training distribution-for instance, generalizing from 10-digit to 100-digit addition without apparent saturation. We observe that in some cases filtering for correct self-generated examples leads to exponential improvements in out-of-distribution performance across training rounds. Additionally, starting from pretrained models significantly accelerates this self-improvement process for several tasks. Our results demonstrate how controlled weak-to-strong curricula can systematically teach a model logical extrapolation without any changes to the positional embeddings, or the model architecture.

Quantum technology has the potential to revolutionize how we acquire and process experimental data to learn about the physical world. An experimental setup that transduces data from a physical system to a stable quantum memory, and processes that data using a quantum computer, could have significant advantages over conventional experiments in which the physical system is measured and the outcomes are processed using a classical computer. We prove that, in various tasks, quantum machines can learn from exponentially fewer experiments than those required in conventional experiments. The exponential advantage holds in predicting properties of physical systems, performing quantum principal component analysis on noisy states, and learning approximate models of physical dynamics. In some tasks, the quantum processing needed to achieve the exponential advantage can be modest; for example, one can simultaneously learn about many noncommuting observables by processing only two copies of the system. Conducting experiments with up to 40 superconducting qubits and 1300 quantum gates, we demonstrate that a substantial quantum advantage can be realized using today's relatively noisy quantum processors. Our results highlight how quantum technology can enable powerful new strategies to learn about nature.

In this work, we explore whether modeling recurrence into the Transformer architecture can both be beneficial and efficient, by building an extremely simple recurrent module into the Transformer. We compare our model to baselines following the training and evaluation recipe of BERT. Our results confirm that recurrence can indeed improve Transformer models by a consistent margin, without requiring low-level performance optimizations, and while keeping the number of parameters constant. For example, our base model achieves an absolute improvement of 2.1 points averaged across 10 tasks and also demonstrates increased stability in fine-tuning over a range of learning rates.

In recent years, the state-of-the-art in deep learning has been dominated by very large models that have been pre-trained on vast amounts of data. The paradigm is very simple: Investing more computational resources (optimally) leads to better performance, and even predictably so; neural scaling laws have been derived that accurately forecast the performance of a network for a desired level of compute. This leads to the notion of a "compute-optimal" model, i.e. a model that allocates a given level of compute during training optimally to maximise performance. In this work, we extend the concept of optimality by allowing for an "adaptive" model, i.e. a model that can change its shape during the course of training. By allowing the shape to adapt, we can optimally traverse between the underlying scaling laws, leading to a significant reduction in the required compute to reach a given target performance. We focus on vision tasks and the family of Vision Transformers, where the patch size as well as the width naturally serve as adaptive shape parameters. We demonstrate that, guided by scaling laws, we can design compute-optimal adaptive models that beat their "static" counterparts.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

We present CRUXEval (Code Reasoning, Understanding, and eXecution Evaluation), a benchmark consisting of 800 Python functions (3-13 lines). Each function comes with an input-output pair, leading to two natural tasks: input prediction and output prediction. First, we propose a generic recipe for generating our execution benchmark which can be used to create future variation of the benchmark. Second, we evaluate twenty code models on our benchmark and discover that many recent high-scoring models on HumanEval do not show the same improvements on our benchmark. Third, we show that simple CoT and fine-tuning schemes can improve performance on our benchmark but remain far from solving it. The best setup, GPT-4 with chain of thought (CoT), achieves a pass@1 of 75% and 81% on input and output prediction, respectively. In contrast, Code Llama 34B achieves a pass@1 of 50% and 46% on input and output prediction, highlighting the gap between open and closed source models. As no model is close to acing CRUXEval, we provide examples of consistent GPT-4 failures on simple programs as a lens into its code reasoning capabilities and areas for improvement.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL) promises to provide agents that can perform any task in an environment after an offline pre-training phase. Forward-backward (FB) representations represent remarkable progress towards this ideal, achieving 85% of the performance of task-specific agents in this setting. However, such performance is contingent on access to large and diverse datasets for pre-training, which cannot be expected for most real problems. Here, we explore how FB performance degrades when trained on small datasets that lack diversity, and mitigate it with conservatism, a well-established feature of performant offline RL algorithms. We evaluate our family of methods across various datasets, domains and tasks, reaching 150% of vanilla FB performance in aggregate. Somewhat surprisingly, conservative FB algorithms also outperform the task-specific baseline, despite lacking access to reward labels and being required to maintain policies for all tasks. Conservative FB algorithms perform no worse than FB on full datasets, and so present little downside over their predecessor. Our code is available open-source via https://enjeeneer.io/projects/conservative-world-models/.

Recently, it has been shown that for offline deep reinforcement learning (DRL), pre-training Decision Transformer with a large language corpus can improve downstream performance (Reid et al., 2022). A natural question to ask is whether this performance gain can only be achieved with language pre-training, or can be achieved with simpler pre-training schemes which do not involve language. In this paper, we first show that language is not essential for improved performance, and indeed pre-training with synthetic IID data for a small number of updates can match the performance gains from pre-training with a large language corpus; moreover, pre-training with data generated by a one-step Markov chain can further improve the performance. Inspired by these experimental results, we then consider pre-training Conservative Q-Learning (CQL), a popular offline DRL algorithm, which is Q-learning-based and typically employs a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) backbone. Surprisingly, pre-training with simple synthetic data for a small number of updates can also improve CQL, providing consistent performance improvement on D4RL Gym locomotion datasets. The results of this paper not only illustrate the importance of pre-training for offline DRL but also show that the pre-training data can be synthetic and generated with remarkably simple mechanisms.

The waning of Moore's Law has shifted the focus of the tech industry towards alternative methods for continued performance gains. While optimizing compilers are a standard tool to help increase program efficiency, programmers continue to shoulder much responsibility in crafting and refactoring code with better performance characteristics. In this paper, we investigate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to suggest functionally correct, performance improving code edits. We hypothesize that language models can suggest such edits in ways that would be impractical for static analysis alone. We investigate these questions by curating a large-scale dataset of Performance-Improving Edits, PIE. PIE contains trajectories of programs, where a programmer begins with an initial, slower version and iteratively makes changes to improve the program's performance. We use PIE to evaluate and improve the capacity of large language models. Specifically, use examples from PIE to fine-tune multiple variants of CODEGEN, a billion-scale Transformer-decoder model. Additionally, we use examples from PIE to prompt OpenAI's CODEX using a few-shot prompting. By leveraging PIE, we find that both CODEX and CODEGEN can generate performance-improving edits, with speedups of more than 2.5x for over 25% of the programs, for C++ and Python, even after the C++ programs were compiled using the O3 optimization level. Crucially, we show that PIE allows CODEGEN, an open-sourced and 10x smaller model than CODEX, to match the performance of CODEX on this challenging task. Overall, this work opens new doors for creating systems and methods that can help programmers write efficient code.

Self-improvement is a mechanism in Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training, post-training and test-time inference. We explore a framework where the model verifies its own outputs, filters or reweights data based on this verification, and distills the filtered data. Despite several empirical successes, a fundamental understanding is still lacking. In this work, we initiate a comprehensive, modular and controlled study on LLM self-improvement. We provide a mathematical formulation for self-improvement, which is largely governed by a quantity which we formalize as the generation-verification gap. Through experiments with various model families and tasks, we discover a scaling phenomenon of self-improvement -- a variant of the generation-verification gap scales monotonically with the model pre-training flops. We also examine when self-improvement is possible, an iterative self-improvement procedure, and ways to improve its performance. Our findings not only advance understanding of LLM self-improvement with practical implications, but also open numerous avenues for future research into its capabilities and boundaries.

We study online reinforcement learning in linear Markov decision processes with adversarial losses and bandit feedback, without prior knowledge on transitions or access to simulators. We introduce two algorithms that achieve improved regret performance compared to existing approaches. The first algorithm, although computationally inefficient, ensures a regret of mathcal{O}left(Kright), where K is the number of episodes. This is the first result with the optimal K dependence in the considered setting. The second algorithm, which is based on the policy optimization framework, guarantees a regret of mathcal{O}left(K^{3{4}} right) and is computationally efficient. Both our results significantly improve over the state-of-the-art: a computationally inefficient algorithm by Kong et al. [2023] with mathcal{O}left(K^{4{5}}+polyleft(1{lambda_{min}}right) right) regret, for some problem-dependent constant lambda_{min} that can be arbitrarily close to zero, and a computationally efficient algorithm by Sherman et al. [2023b] with mathcal{O}left(K^{6{7}} right) regret.

Scaling up language models has been shown to predictably improve performance and sample efficiency on a wide range of downstream tasks. This paper instead discusses an unpredictable phenomenon that we refer to as emergent abilities of large language models. We consider an ability to be emergent if it is not present in smaller models but is present in larger models. Thus, emergent abilities cannot be predicted simply by extrapolating the performance of smaller models. The existence of such emergence implies that additional scaling could further expand the range of capabilities of language models.

Progress in scientific discovery is rarely the result of a single "Eureka" moment, but is rather the product of hundreds of scientists incrementally working together toward a common goal. While existing agent workflows are capable of producing research autonomously, they do so in isolation, without the ability to continuously improve upon prior research results. To address these challenges, we introduce AgentRxiv-a framework that lets LLM agent laboratories upload and retrieve reports from a shared preprint server in order to collaborate, share insights, and iteratively build on each other's research. We task agent laboratories to develop new reasoning and prompting techniques and find that agents with access to their prior research achieve higher performance improvements compared to agents operating in isolation (11.4% relative improvement over baseline on MATH-500). We find that the best performing strategy generalizes to benchmarks in other domains (improving on average by 3.3%). Multiple agent laboratories sharing research through AgentRxiv are able to work together towards a common goal, progressing more rapidly than isolated laboratories, achieving higher overall accuracy (13.7% relative improvement over baseline on MATH-500). These findings suggest that autonomous agents may play a role in designing future AI systems alongside humans. We hope that AgentRxiv allows agents to collaborate toward research goals and enables researchers to accelerate discovery.

Recent years have seen the remarkable capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for code generation. Different from existing work that evaluate the correctness of the code generated by LLMs, we propose to further evaluate its efficiency. More efficient code can lead to higher performance and execution efficiency of programs and software completed by LLM-assisted programming. First, we evaluate the efficiency of the code generated by LLMs on two benchmarks, HumanEval and MBPP. Then, we choose a set of programming problems from the online judge platform LeetCode to conduct a more difficult evaluation. Finally, we explore several prompts that would enable LLMs to generate more efficient code.

Effective asynchronous planning, or the ability to efficiently reason and plan over states and actions that must happen in parallel or sequentially, is essential for agents that must account for time delays, reason over diverse long-horizon tasks, and collaborate with other agents. While large language model (LLM) agents show promise in high-level task planning, current benchmarks focus primarily on short-horizon tasks and do not evaluate such asynchronous planning capabilities. We introduce Robotouille, a challenging benchmark environment designed to test LLM agents' ability to handle long-horizon asynchronous scenarios. Our synchronous and asynchronous datasets capture increasingly complex planning challenges that go beyond existing benchmarks, requiring agents to manage overlapping tasks and interruptions. Our results show that ReAct (gpt4-o) achieves 47% on synchronous tasks but only 11% on asynchronous tasks, highlighting significant room for improvement. We further analyze failure modes, demonstrating the need for LLM agents to better incorporate long-horizon feedback and self-audit their reasoning during task execution. Code is available at https://github.com/portal-cornell/robotouille.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) prevails in Large Language Models. It mainly consists of retrieval and generation. The retrieval modules (a.k.a. retrievers) aim to find useful information used to facilitate generation modules (a.k.a. generators). As such, generators' performance largely depends on the effectiveness and efficiency of retrievers. However, the retrieval paradigm that we design and use remains flat, which treats the retrieval procedures as a one-off deal with constant granularity. Despite effectiveness, we argue that they suffer from two limitations: (1) flat retrieval exerts a significant burden on one retriever; (2) constant granularity limits the ceiling of retrieval performance. In this work, we propose a progressive retrieval paradigm with coarse-to-fine granularity for RAG, termed FunnelRAG, so as to balance effectiveness and efficiency. Specifically, FunnelRAG establishes a progressive retrieval pipeline by collaborating coarse-to-fine granularity, large-to-small quantity, and low-to-high capacity, which can relieve the burden on one retriever and also promote the ceiling of retrieval performance. Extensive experiments manifest that FunnelRAG achieves comparable retrieval performance while the time overhead is reduced by nearly 40 percent.

We study single-machine scheduling of jobs, each belonging to a job type that determines its duration distribution. We start by analyzing the scenario where the type characteristics are known and then move to two learning scenarios where the types are unknown: non-preemptive problems, where each started job must be completed before moving to another job; and preemptive problems, where job execution can be paused in the favor of moving to a different job. In both cases, we design algorithms that achieve sublinear excess cost, compared to the performance with known types, and prove lower bounds for the non-preemptive case. Notably, we demonstrate, both theoretically and through simulations, how preemptive algorithms can greatly outperform non-preemptive ones when the durations of different job types are far from one another, a phenomenon that does not occur when the type durations are known.

A language model's ability to reflect on its own reasoning provides a key advantage for solving complex problems. While most recent research has focused on how this ability develops during reinforcement learning, we show that it actually begins to emerge much earlier - during the model's pre-training. To study this, we introduce deliberate errors into chains-of-thought and test whether the model can still arrive at the correct answer by recognizing and correcting these mistakes. By tracking performance across different stages of pre-training, we observe that this self-correcting ability appears early and improves steadily over time. For instance, an OLMo2-7B model pre-trained on 4 trillion tokens displays self-correction on our six self-reflection tasks.

We survey the large language model (LLM) serving area to understand the intricate dynamics between cost-efficiency and accuracy, which is magnified by the growing need for longer contextual understanding when deploying models at a massive scale. Our findings reveal that works in this space optimize along three distinct but conflicting goals: improving serving context length (C), improving serving accuracy (A), and improving serving performance (P). Drawing inspiration from the CAP theorem in databases, we propose a CAP principle for LLM serving, which suggests that any optimization can improve at most two of these three goals simultaneously. Our survey categorizes existing works within this framework. We find the definition and continuity of user-perceived measurement metrics are crucial in determining whether a goal has been met, akin to prior CAP databases in the wild. We recognize the CAP principle for LLM serving as a guiding principle, rather than a formal theorem, to inform designers of the inherent and dynamic trade-offs in serving models. As serving accuracy and performance have been extensively studied, this survey focuses on works that extend serving context length and address the resulting challenges.

Long-form generation is crucial for academic writing papers and repo-level code generation. Despite this, current models, including GPT-4o, still exhibit unsatisfactory performance. Existing methods that utilize preference learning with outcome supervision often fail to provide detailed feedback for extended contexts. This shortcoming can lead to content that does not fully satisfy query requirements, resulting in issues like length deviations, and diminished quality. In this paper, we propose enhancing long-form generation by incorporating process supervision. We employ Monte Carlo Tree Search to gather stepwise preference pairs, utilizing a global memory pool to maintain consistency. To address the issue of suboptimal candidate selection, we integrate external critiques to refine and improve the quality of the preference pairs. Finally, we apply step-level DPO using the collected stepwise preference pairs. Experimental results show that our method improves length and quality on long-form generation benchmarks, with almost lossless performance on general benchmarks across various model backbones.

Temporal difference (TD) learning and its variants, such as multistage TD (MS-TD) learning and temporal coherence (TC) learning, have been successfully applied to 2048. These methods rely on the stochasticity of the environment of 2048 for exploration. In this paper, we propose to employ optimistic initialization (OI) to encourage exploration for 2048, and empirically show that the learning quality is significantly improved. This approach optimistically initializes the feature weights to very large values. Since weights tend to be reduced once the states are visited, agents tend to explore those states which are unvisited or visited few times. Our experiments show that both TD and TC learning with OI significantly improve the performance. As a result, the network size required to achieve the same performance is significantly reduced. With additional tunings such as expectimax search, multistage learning, and tile-downgrading technique, our design achieves the state-of-the-art performance, namely an average score of 625 377 and a rate of 72% reaching 32768 tiles. In addition, for sufficiently large tests, 65536 tiles are reached at a rate of 0.02%.

At face value, this essay is about understanding a fairly esoteric governance tool called compute thresholds. However, in order to grapple with whether these thresholds will achieve anything, we must first understand how they came to be. This requires engaging with a decades-old debate at the heart of computer science progress, namely, is bigger always better? Hence, this essay may be of interest not only to policymakers and the wider public but also to computer scientists interested in understanding the role of compute in unlocking breakthroughs. Does a certain inflection point of compute result in changes to the risk profile of a model? This discussion is increasingly urgent given the wide adoption of governance approaches that suggest greater compute equates with higher propensity for harm. Several leading frontier AI companies have released responsible scaling policies. Both the White House Executive Orders on AI Safety (EO) and the EU AI Act encode the use of FLOP or floating-point operations as a way to identify more powerful systems. What is striking about the choice of compute thresholds to-date is that no models currently deployed in the wild fulfill the current criteria set by the EO. This implies that the emphasis is often not on auditing the risks and harms incurred by currently deployed models - but rather is based upon the belief that future levels of compute will introduce unforeseen new risks. A key conclusion of this essay is that compute thresholds as currently implemented are shortsighted and likely to fail to mitigate risk. Governance that is overly reliant on compute fails to understand that the relationship between compute and risk is highly uncertain and rapidly changing. It also overestimates our ability to predict what abilities emerge at different scales. This essay ends with recommendations for a better way forward.

We investigate the extent to which offline demonstration data can improve online learning. It is natural to expect some improvement, but the question is how, and by how much? We show that the degree of improvement must depend on the quality of the demonstration data. To generate portable insights, we focus on Thompson sampling (TS) applied to a multi-armed bandit as a prototypical online learning algorithm and model. The demonstration data is generated by an expert with a given competence level, a notion we introduce. We propose an informed TS algorithm that utilizes the demonstration data in a coherent way through Bayes' rule and derive a prior-dependent Bayesian regret bound. This offers insight into how pretraining can greatly improve online performance and how the degree of improvement increases with the expert's competence level. We also develop a practical, approximate informed TS algorithm through Bayesian bootstrapping and show substantial empirical regret reduction through experiments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate responses to questions; however, their effectiveness is often hindered by sub-optimal quality of answers and occasional failures to provide accurate responses to questions. To address these challenges, a fine-tuning process is employed, involving feedback and examples to refine models. The objective is to enhance AI models through continuous feedback loops, utilizing metrics such as cosine similarity, LLM evaluation and Rouge-L scores to evaluate the models. Leveraging LLMs like GPT-3.5, GPT4ALL, and LLaMA2, and Claude, this approach is benchmarked on financial datasets, including the FinanceBench and RAG Instruct Benchmark Tester Dataset, illustrating the necessity of fine-tuning. The results showcase the capability of fine-tuned models to surpass the accuracy of zero-shot LLMs, providing superior question and answering capabilities. Notably, the combination of fine-tuning the LLM with a process known as Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) proves to generate responses with improved accuracy.

Data preprocessing pipelines, which includes data decoding, cleaning, and transforming, are a crucial component of Machine Learning (ML) training. Thy are computationally intensive and often become a major bottleneck, due to the increasing performance gap between the CPUs used for preprocessing and the GPUs used for model training. Recent studies show that a significant number of CPUs across several machines are required to achieve sufficient throughput to saturate the GPUs, leading to increased resource and energy consumption. When the pipeline involves vocabulary generation, the preprocessing performance scales poorly due to significant row-wise synchronization overhead between different CPU cores and servers. To address this limitation, in this paper we present the design of Piper, a hardware accelerator for tabular data preprocessing, prototype it on FPGAs, and demonstrate its potential for training pipelines of commercial recommender systems. Piper achieves 4.7 sim 71.3times speedup in latency over a 128-core CPU server and outperforms a data-center GPU by 4.8sim 20.3times when using binary input. The impressive performance showcases Piper's potential to increase the efficiency of data preprocessing pipelines and significantly reduce their resource consumption.

In this paper, we propose Patience-based Early Exit, a straightforward yet effective inference method that can be used as a plug-and-play technique to simultaneously improve the efficiency and robustness of a pretrained language model (PLM). To achieve this, our approach couples an internal-classifier with each layer of a PLM and dynamically stops inference when the intermediate predictions of the internal classifiers remain unchanged for a pre-defined number of steps. Our approach improves inference efficiency as it allows the model to make a prediction with fewer layers. Meanwhile, experimental results with an ALBERT model show that our method can improve the accuracy and robustness of the model by preventing it from overthinking and exploiting multiple classifiers for prediction, yielding a better accuracy-speed trade-off compared to existing early exit methods.

We introduce the framework of performative reinforcement learning where the policy chosen by the learner affects the underlying reward and transition dynamics of the environment. Following the recent literature on performative prediction~Perdomo et. al., 2020, we introduce the concept of performatively stable policy. We then consider a regularized version of the reinforcement learning problem and show that repeatedly optimizing this objective converges to a performatively stable policy under reasonable assumptions on the transition dynamics. Our proof utilizes the dual perspective of the reinforcement learning problem and may be of independent interest in analyzing the convergence of other algorithms with decision-dependent environments. We then extend our results for the setting where the learner just performs gradient ascent steps instead of fully optimizing the objective, and for the setting where the learner has access to a finite number of trajectories from the changed environment. For both settings, we leverage the dual formulation of performative reinforcement learning and establish convergence to a stable solution. Finally, through extensive experiments on a grid-world environment, we demonstrate the dependence of convergence on various parameters e.g. regularization, smoothness, and the number of samples.

LLMs have gained immense popularity among researchers and the general public for its impressive capabilities on a variety of tasks. Notably, the efficacy of LLMs remains significantly dependent on the quality and structure of the input prompts, making prompt design a critical factor for their performance. Recent advancements in automated prompt optimization have introduced diverse techniques that automatically enhance prompts to better align model outputs with user expectations. However, these methods often suffer from the lack of standardization and compatibility across different techniques, limited flexibility in customization, inconsistent performance across model scales, and they often exclusively rely on expensive proprietary LLM APIs. To fill in this gap, we introduce GREATERPROMPT, a novel framework that democratizes prompt optimization by unifying diverse methods under a unified, customizable API while delivering highly effective prompts for different tasks. Our framework flexibly accommodates various model scales by leveraging both text feedback-based optimization for larger LLMs and internal gradient-based optimization for smaller models to achieve powerful and precise prompt improvements. Moreover, we provide a user-friendly Web UI that ensures accessibility for non-expert users, enabling broader adoption and enhanced performance across various user groups and application scenarios. GREATERPROMPT is available at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/GreaterPrompt via GitHub, PyPI, and web user interfaces.

DistServe improves the performance of large language models (LLMs) serving by disaggregating the prefill and decoding computation. Existing LLM serving systems colocate the two phases and batch the computation of prefill and decoding across all users and requests. We find that this strategy not only leads to strong prefill-decoding interferences but also couples the resource allocation and parallelism plans for both phases. LLM applications often emphasize individual latency for each phase: time to first token (TTFT) for the prefill phase and time per output token (TPOT) of each request for the decoding phase. In the presence of stringent latency requirements, existing systems have to prioritize one latency over the other, or over-provision compute resources to meet both. DistServe assigns prefill and decoding computation to different GPUs, hence eliminating prefill-decoding interferences. Given the application's TTFT and TPOT requirements, DistServe co-optimizes the resource allocation and parallelism strategy tailored for each phase. DistServe also places the two phases according to the serving cluster's bandwidth to minimize the communication caused by disaggregation. As a result, DistServe significantly improves LLM serving performance in terms of the maximum rate that can be served within both TTFT and TPOT constraints on each GPU. Our evaluations show that on various popular LLMs, applications, and latency requirements, DistServe can serve 4.48x more requests or 10.2x tighter SLO, compared to state-of-the-art systems, while staying within latency constraints for > 90% of requests.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines are central to applying large language models (LLMs) to proprietary or dynamic data. However, building effective RAG flows is complex, requiring careful selection among vector databases, embedding models, text splitters, retrievers, and synthesizing LLMs. The challenge deepens with the rise of agentic paradigms. Modules like verifiers, rewriters, and rerankers-each with intricate hyperparameter dependencies have to be carefully tuned. Balancing tradeoffs between latency, accuracy, and cost becomes increasingly difficult in performance-sensitive applications. We introduce syftr, a framework that performs efficient multi-objective search over a broad space of agentic and non-agentic RAG configurations. Using Bayesian Optimization, syftr discovers Pareto-optimal flows that jointly optimize task accuracy and cost. A novel early-stopping mechanism further improves efficiency by pruning clearly suboptimal candidates. Across multiple RAG benchmarks, syftr finds flows which are on average approximately 9 times cheaper while preserving most of the accuracy of the most accurate flows on the Pareto-frontier. Furthermore, syftr's ability to design and optimize allows integrating new modules, making it even easier and faster to realize high-performing generative AI pipelines.

With the growing attention and investment in recent AI approaches such as large language models, the narrative that the larger the AI system the more valuable, powerful and interesting it is is increasingly seen as common sense. But what is this assumption based on, and how are we measuring value, power, and performance? And what are the collateral consequences of this race to ever-increasing scale? Here, we scrutinize the current scaling trends and trade-offs across multiple axes and refute two common assumptions underlying the 'bigger-is-better' AI paradigm: 1) that improved performance is a product of increased scale, and 2) that all interesting problems addressed by AI require large-scale models. Rather, we argue that this approach is not only fragile scientifically, but comes with undesirable consequences. First, it is not sustainable, as its compute demands increase faster than model performance, leading to unreasonable economic requirements and a disproportionate environmental footprint. Second, it implies focusing on certain problems at the expense of others, leaving aside important applications, e.g. health, education, or the climate. Finally, it exacerbates a concentration of power, which centralizes decision-making in the hands of a few actors while threatening to disempower others in the context of shaping both AI research and its applications throughout society.

This paper introduces a structured memory which can be easily integrated into a neural network. The memory is very large by design and significantly increases the capacity of the architecture, by up to a billion parameters with a negligible computational overhead. Its design and access pattern is based on product keys, which enable fast and exact nearest neighbor search. The ability to increase the number of parameters while keeping the same computational budget lets the overall system strike a better trade-off between prediction accuracy and computation efficiency both at training and test time. This memory layer allows us to tackle very large scale language modeling tasks. In our experiments we consider a dataset with up to 30 billion words, and we plug our memory layer in a state-of-the-art transformer-based architecture. In particular, we found that a memory augmented model with only 12 layers outperforms a baseline transformer model with 24 layers, while being twice faster at inference time. We release our code for reproducibility purposes.

We present the design, implementation and engineering experience in building and deploying MegaScale, a production system for training large language models (LLMs) at the scale of more than 10,000 GPUs. Training LLMs at this scale brings unprecedented challenges to training efficiency and stability. We take a full-stack approach that co-designs the algorithmic and system components across model block and optimizer design, computation and communication overlapping, operator optimization, data pipeline, and network performance tuning. Maintaining high efficiency throughout the training process (i.e., stability) is an important consideration in production given the long extent of LLM training jobs. Many hard stability issues only emerge at large scale, and in-depth observability is the key to address them. We develop a set of diagnosis tools to monitor system components and events deep in the stack, identify root causes, and derive effective techniques to achieve fault tolerance and mitigate stragglers. MegaScale achieves 55.2% Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU) when training a 175B LLM model on 12,288 GPUs, improving the MFU by 1.34x compared to Megatron-LM. We share our operational experience in identifying and fixing failures and stragglers. We hope by articulating the problems and sharing our experience from a systems perspective, this work can inspire future LLM systems research.

In many real-world applications, deep neural networks are retrained from scratch as a dataset grows in size. Given the computational expense for retraining networks, it has been argued that continual learning could make updating networks more efficient. An obstacle to achieving this goal is the stability gap, which refers to an observation that when updating on new data, performance on previously learned data degrades before recovering. Addressing this problem would enable learning new data with fewer network updates, resulting in increased computational efficiency. We study how to mitigate the stability gap. We test a variety of hypotheses to understand why the stability gap occurs. This leads us to discover a method that vastly reduces this gap. In large-scale class incremental learning experiments, we are able to significantly reduce the number of network updates needed for continual learning. Our work has the potential to advance the state-of-the-art in continual learning for real-world applications along with reducing the carbon footprint required to maintain updated neural networks.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for downstream tasks is a widely adopted approach, but it often leads to safety degradation in safety-aligned LLMs. Currently, many solutions address this issue by incorporating additional safety data, which can be impractical in many cases. In this paper, we address the question: How can we improve downstream task performance while preserving safety in LLMs without relying on additional safety data? We propose a simple and effective method that maintains the inherent safety of LLMs while enhancing their downstream task performance: merging the weights of pre- and post-fine-tuned safety-aligned models. Experimental results across various downstream tasks, models, and merging methods demonstrate that this approach effectively mitigates safety degradation while improving downstream task performance, offering a practical solution for adapting safety-aligned LLMs.

Poker, also known as Texas Hold'em, has always been a typical research target within imperfect information games (IIGs). IIGs have long served as a measure of artificial intelligence (AI) development. Representative prior works, such as DeepStack and Libratus heavily rely on counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) to tackle heads-up no-limit Poker. However, it is challenging for subsequent researchers to learn CFR from previous models and apply it to other real-world applications due to the expensive computational cost of CFR iterations. Additionally, CFR is difficult to apply to multi-player games due to the exponential growth of the game tree size. In this work, we introduce PokerGPT, an end-to-end solver for playing Texas Hold'em with arbitrary number of players and gaining high win rates, established on a lightweight large language model (LLM). PokerGPT only requires simple textual information of Poker games for generating decision-making advice, thus guaranteeing the convenient interaction between AI and humans. We mainly transform a set of textual records acquired from real games into prompts, and use them to fine-tune a lightweight pre-trained LLM using reinforcement learning human feedback technique. To improve fine-tuning performance, we conduct prompt engineering on raw data, including filtering useful information, selecting behaviors of players with high win rates, and further processing them into textual instruction using multiple prompt engineering techniques. Through the experiments, we demonstrate that PokerGPT outperforms previous approaches in terms of win rate, model size, training time, and response speed, indicating the great potential of LLMs in solving IIGs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate functionally correct solutions but often fall short in code efficiency, a critical bottleneck for real-world deployment. In this paper, we introduce a novel test-time iterative optimization framework to address this, employing a closed-loop system where LLMs iteratively refine code based on empirical performance feedback from an execution sandbox. We explore three training strategies: Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and Group Relative Policy Optimization~(GRPO). Experiments on our Venus dataset and the APPS benchmark show that SFT and DPO rapidly saturate in efficiency gains. In contrast, GRPO, using reinforcement learning (RL) with execution feedback, continuously optimizes code performance, significantly boosting both pass@1 (from 47% to 62%) and the likelihood of outperforming human submissions in efficiency (from 31% to 45%). Our work demonstrates effective test-time code efficiency improvement and critically reveals the power of RL in teaching LLMs to truly self-improve code efficiency.

Database knob tuning is a critical challenge in the database community, aiming to optimize knob values to enhance database performance for specific workloads. DBMS often feature hundreds of tunable knobs, posing a significant challenge for DBAs to recommend optimal configurations. Consequently, many machine learning-based tuning methods have been developed to automate this process. Despite the introduction of various optimizers, practical applications have unveiled a new problem: they typically require numerous workload runs to achieve satisfactory performance, a process that is both time-consuming and resource-intensive. This inefficiency largely stems from the optimal configuration often being substantially different from the default setting, necessitating multiple iterations during tuning. Recognizing this, we argue that an effective starting point could significantly reduce redundant exploration in less efficient areas, thereby potentially speeding up the tuning process for the optimizers. Based on this assumption, we introduce LLMTune, a large language model-based configuration generator designed to produce an initial, high-quality configuration for new workloads. These generated configurations can then serve as starting points for various base optimizers, accelerating their tuning processes. To obtain training data for LLMTune's supervised fine-tuning, we have devised a new automatic data generation framework capable of efficiently creating a large number of <workload, configuration> pairs. We have conducted thorough experiments to evaluate LLMTune's effectiveness with different workloads, such as TPC-H and JOB. In comparison to leading methods, LLMTune demonstrates a quicker ability to identify superior configurations. For instance, with the challenging TPC-H workload, our LLMTune achieves a significant 15.6x speed-up ratio in finding the best-performing configurations.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Recent Language Models (LMs) achieve breakthrough performance in code generation when trained on human-authored problems, even solving some competitive-programming problems. Self-play has proven useful in games such as Go, and thus it is natural to ask whether LMs can generate their own instructive programming problems to improve their performance. We show that it is possible for an LM to synthesize programming problems and solutions, which are filtered for correctness by a Python interpreter. The LM's performance is then seen to improve when it is fine-tuned on its own synthetic problems and verified solutions; thus the model 'improves itself' using the Python interpreter. Problems are specified formally as programming puzzles [Schuster et al., 2021], a code-based problem format where solutions can easily be verified for correctness by execution. In experiments on publicly-available LMs, test accuracy more than doubles. This work demonstrates the potential for code LMs, with an interpreter, to generate instructive problems and improve their own performance.

Serving systems for Large Language Models (LLMs) are often optimized to improve quality of service (QoS) and throughput. However, due to the lack of open-source LLM serving workloads, these systems are frequently evaluated under unrealistic workload assumptions. Consequently, performance may degrade when systems are deployed in real-world scenarios. This work presents BurstGPT, an LLM serving workload with 10.31 million traces from regional Azure OpenAI GPT services over 213 days. BurstGPT captures LLM serving characteristics from user, model and system perspectives: (1) User request concurrency: burstiness variations of requests in Azure OpenAI GPT services, revealing diversified concurrency patterns in different services and model types. (2) User conversation patterns: counts and intervals within conversations for service optimizations. (3) Model response lengths: auto-regressive serving processes of GPT models, showing statistical relations between requests and their responses. (4) System response failures: failures of conversation and API services, showing intensive resource needs and limited availability of LLM services in Azure. The details of the characteristics can serve multiple purposes in LLM serving optimizations, such as system evaluation and trace provisioning. In our demo evaluation with BurstGPT, frequent variations in BurstGPT reveal declines in efficiency, stability, or reliability in realistic LLM serving. We identify that the generalization of KV cache management, scheduling and disaggregation optimizations can be improved under realistic workload evaluations. BurstGPT is publicly available now at https://github.com/HPMLL/BurstGPT and is widely used to develop prototypes of LLM serving frameworks in the industry.

Recent progress in hardware and methodology for training neural networks has ushered in a new generation of large networks trained on abundant data. These models have obtained notable gains in accuracy across many NLP tasks. However, these accuracy improvements depend on the availability of exceptionally large computational resources that necessitate similarly substantial energy consumption. As a result these models are costly to train and develop, both financially, due to the cost of hardware and electricity or cloud compute time, and environmentally, due to the carbon footprint required to fuel modern tensor processing hardware. In this paper we bring this issue to the attention of NLP researchers by quantifying the approximate financial and environmental costs of training a variety of recently successful neural network models for NLP. Based on these findings, we propose actionable recommendations to reduce costs and improve equity in NLP research and practice.

Recent years have seen considerable progress in the continual training of deep neural networks, predominantly thanks to approaches that add replay or regularization terms to the loss function to approximate the joint loss over all tasks so far. However, we show that even with a perfect approximation to the joint loss, these approaches still suffer from temporary but substantial forgetting when starting to train on a new task. Motivated by this 'stability gap', we propose that continual learning strategies should focus not only on the optimization objective, but also on the way this objective is optimized. While there is some continual learning work that alters the optimization trajectory (e.g., using gradient projection techniques), this line of research is positioned as alternative to improving the optimization objective, while we argue it should be complementary. To evaluate the merits of our proposition, we plan to combine replay-approximated joint objectives with gradient projection-based optimization routines to test whether the addition of the latter provides benefits in terms of (1) alleviating the stability gap, (2) increasing the learning efficiency and (3) improving the final learning outcome.

With the recent emergence of powerful instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs), various helpful conversational Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems have been deployed across many applications. When prompted by users, these AI systems successfully perform a wide range of tasks as part of a conversation. To provide some sort of memory and context, such approaches typically condition their output on the entire conversational history. Although this sensitivity to the conversational history can often lead to improved performance on subsequent tasks, we find that performance can in fact also be negatively impacted, if there is a task-switch. To the best of our knowledge, our work makes the first attempt to formalize the study of such vulnerabilities and interference of tasks in conversational LLMs caused by task-switches in the conversational history. Our experiments across 5 datasets with 15 task switches using popular LLMs reveal that many of the task-switches can lead to significant performance degradation.

This paper introduces Adaptive Computation Time (ACT), an algorithm that allows recurrent neural networks to learn how many computational steps to take between receiving an input and emitting an output. ACT requires minimal changes to the network architecture, is deterministic and differentiable, and does not add any noise to the parameter gradients. Experimental results are provided for four synthetic problems: determining the parity of binary vectors, applying binary logic operations, adding integers, and sorting real numbers. Overall, performance is dramatically improved by the use of ACT, which successfully adapts the number of computational steps to the requirements of the problem. We also present character-level language modelling results on the Hutter prize Wikipedia dataset. In this case ACT does not yield large gains in performance; however it does provide intriguing insight into the structure of the data, with more computation allocated to harder-to-predict transitions, such as spaces between words and ends of sentences. This suggests that ACT or other adaptive computation methods could provide a generic method for inferring segment boundaries in sequence data.

The recent development of Large Language Models (LLMs) has been accompanied by an effervescence of novel ideas and methods to better optimize the loss of deep learning models. Claims from those methods are myriad: from faster convergence to removing reliance on certain hyperparameters. However, the diverse experimental protocols used to validate these claims make direct comparisons between methods challenging. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of recent optimization techniques across standardized LLM pretraining scenarios, systematically varying model size, batch size, and training duration. Through careful tuning of each method, we provide guidance to practitioners on which optimizer is best suited for each scenario. For researchers, our work highlights promising directions for future optimization research. Finally, by releasing our code and making all experiments fully reproducible, we hope our efforts can help the development and rigorous benchmarking of future methods.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems typically rely on a single fixed retriever, despite growing evidence that no single retriever performs optimally across all query types. In this paper, we explore a query routing approach that dynamically selects from a pool of retrievers based on the query, using both train-free heuristics and learned routing models. We frame routing as a learning-to-rank (LTR) problem and introduce LTRR, a framework that learns to rank retrievers by their expected utility gain to downstream LLM performance. Our experiments, conducted on synthetic QA data with controlled query type variations, show that routing-based RAG systems can outperform the best single-retriever-based systems. Performance gains are especially pronounced in models trained with the Answer Correctness (AC) metric and with pairwise learning approaches, especially with XGBoost. We also observe improvements in generalization to out-of-distribution queries. As part of the SIGIR 2025 LiveRAG challenge, our submitted system demonstrated the practical viability of our approach, achieving competitive performance in both answer correctness and faithfulness. These findings highlight the importance of both training methodology and metric selection in query routing for RAG systems.

Although large language models have demonstrated impressive ability in code generation, they are still struggling to address the complicated intent provided by humans. It is widely acknowledged that humans typically employ planning to decompose complex problems and schedule the solution steps prior to implementation. Thus we introduce planning into code generation to help the model understand complex intent and reduce the difficulty of problem solving. This paper proposes a self-planning code generation method with large language model, which consists of two phases, namely planning phase and implementation phase. Specifically, in the planning phase, the language model plans out the solution steps from the intent combined with in-context learning. Then it enters the implementation phase, where the model generates code step by step, guided by the solution steps. The effectiveness of self-planning code generation has been rigorously evaluated on multiple code generation datasets and the results have demonstrated a marked superiority over naive direct generation approaches with language model. The improvement in performance is substantial, highlighting the significance of self-planning in code generation tasks.

While pretraining on large-scale image-text data from the Web has facilitated rapid progress on many vision-and-language (V&L) tasks, recent work has demonstrated that pretrained models lack "fine-grained" understanding, such as the ability to recognise relationships, verbs, and numbers in images. This has resulted in an increased interest in the community to either develop new benchmarks or models for such capabilities. To better understand and quantify progress in this direction, we investigate four competitive V&L models on four fine-grained benchmarks. Through our analysis, we find that X-VLM (Zeng et al., 2022) consistently outperforms other baselines, and that modelling innovations can impact performance more than scaling Web data, which even degrades performance sometimes. Through a deeper investigation of X-VLM, we highlight the importance of both novel losses and rich data sources for learning fine-grained skills. Finally, we inspect training dynamics, and discover that for some tasks, performance peaks early in training or significantly fluctuates, never converging.

It is a common belief that large language models (LLMs) are better than smaller-sized ones. However, larger models also require significantly more time and compute during inference. This begs the question: what happens when both models operate under the same budget? (e.g., compute, run-time). To address this question, we analyze code generation LLMs of various sizes and make comparisons such as running a 70B model once vs. generating five outputs from a 13B model. We consider a standard unit-test setup, which can be used to select the correct output from the smaller model. Our findings reveal that the repeated use of smaller models can yield consistent improvements, with gains of up to 15% across five tasks. On the other hand, in scenarios where unit-tests are unavailable, a ranking-based selection of candidates from the smaller model falls short of the performance of a single output from larger ones. Our results highlight the potential of using smaller models instead of larger ones, and the importance of studying approaches for ranking LLM outputs.

The application of large language models (LLMs) in domain-specific contexts, including finance, has expanded rapidly. Domain-specific LLMs are typically evaluated based on their performance in various downstream tasks relevant to the domain. In this work, we present a detailed analysis of fine-tuning LLMs for such tasks. Somewhat counterintuitively, we find that in domain-specific cases, fine-tuning exclusively on the target task is not always the most effective strategy. Instead, multi-task finetuning - where models are trained on a cocktail of related tasks - can significantly enhance performance. We demonstrate how this approach enables a small model, such as Phi-3-Mini, to achieve state-of-the-art results, even surpassing the much larger GPT-4-o model on financial benchmarks. Our study involves a large-scale experiment, conducting over 200 training experiments using several widely adopted LLMs as baselines, and empirically confirms the benefits of multi-task fine-tuning. Additionally, we explore the use of general instruction data as a form of regularization, suggesting that it helps minimize performance degradation. We also investigate the inclusion of mathematical data, finding improvements in numerical reasoning that transfer effectively to financial tasks. Finally, we note that while fine-tuning for downstream tasks leads to targeted improvements in task performance, it does not necessarily result in broader gains in domain knowledge or complex domain reasoning abilities.

Recently, techniques such as explicit structured reasoning have demonstrated strong test-time scaling behavior by enforcing a separation between the model's internal "thinking" process and the final response. A key factor influencing answer quality in this setting is the length of the thinking stage. When the reasoning is too short, the model may fail to capture the complexity of the task. Conversely, when it is too long, the model may overthink, leading to unnecessary computation and degraded performance. This paper explores and exploits the underlying mechanisms by which LLMs understand and regulate the length of their reasoning during explicit thought processes. First, we show that LLMs encode their progress through the reasoning process and introduce an interactive progress bar visualization, which is then used to reveal insights on the model's planning dynamics. Second, we manipulate the internal progress encoding during inference to reduce unnecessary steps and generate a more concise and decisive chain of thoughts. Our empirical results demonstrate that this "overclocking" method mitigates overthinking, improves answer accuracy, and reduces inference latency. Our code is publicly available.

Uncertainty in perception, actuation, and the environment often require multiple attempts for a robotic task to be successful. We study a class of problems providing (1) low-entropy indicators of terminal success / failure, and (2) unreliable (high-entropy) data to predict the final outcome of an ongoing task. Examples include a robot trying to connect with a charging station, parallel parking, or assembling a tightly-fitting part. The ability to restart after predicting failure early, versus simply running to failure, can significantly decrease the makespan, that is, the total time to completion, with the drawback of potentially short-cutting an otherwise successful operation. Assuming task running times to be Poisson distributed, and using a Markov Jump process to capture the dynamics of the underlying Markov Decision Process, we derive a closed form solution that predicts makespan based on the confusion matrix of the failure predictor. This allows the robot to learn failure prediction in a production environment, and only adopt a preemptive policy when it actually saves time. We demonstrate this approach using a robotic peg-in-hole assembly problem using a real robotic system. Failures are predicted by a dilated convolutional network based on force-torque data, showing an average makespan reduction from 101s to 81s (N=120, p<0.05). We posit that the proposed algorithm generalizes to any robotic behavior with an unambiguous terminal reward, with wide ranging applications on how robots can learn and improve their behaviors in the wild.

LLMs have transformed NLP and shown promise in various fields, yet their potential in finance is underexplored due to a lack of thorough evaluations and the complexity of financial tasks. This along with the rapid development of LLMs, highlights the urgent need for a systematic financial evaluation benchmark for LLMs. In this paper, we introduce FinBen, the first comprehensive open-sourced evaluation benchmark, specifically designed to thoroughly assess the capabilities of LLMs in the financial domain. FinBen encompasses 35 datasets across 23 financial tasks, organized into three spectrums of difficulty inspired by the Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory, to evaluate LLMs' cognitive abilities in inductive reasoning, associative memory, quantitative reasoning, crystallized intelligence, and more. Our evaluation of 15 representative LLMs, including GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the latest Gemini, reveals insights into their strengths and limitations within the financial domain. The findings indicate that GPT-4 leads in quantification, extraction, numerical reasoning, and stock trading, while Gemini shines in generation and forecasting; however, both struggle with complex extraction and forecasting, showing a clear need for targeted enhancements. Instruction tuning boosts simple task performance but falls short in improving complex reasoning and forecasting abilities. FinBen seeks to continuously evaluate LLMs in finance, fostering AI development with regular updates of tasks and models.

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

We introduce Differential Performance Evaluation (DPE), a framework designed to reliably evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) for efficient code generation. Traditional coding benchmarks often fail to provide reliable insights into code efficiency, due to their reliance on simplistic test inputs and the absence of effective compound metrics. DPE addresses these issues by focusing on efficiency-demanding programming tasks and establishing an insightful compound metric for performance evaluation. DPE operates in two phases: To curate efficiency datasets, it selects efficiency-demanding tasks from existing coding benchmarks and generates computationally expensive inputs to stress the efficiency of LLM solutions. To assess the code efficiency, DPE profiles the new solution and compares it globally against a set of reference solutions that exhibit distinct efficiency levels, where the matched level defines its efficiency score. As a proof of concept, we use DPE to create EvalPerf, a benchmark with 121 performance-challenging coding tasks. Our comprehensive evaluation draws interesting findings on the efficiency impact of model sizes, instruction tuning, and prompting. For example, while the scaling law fails to account for code efficiency, general instruction tuning benefits both code correctness and efficiency. We also evaluate the evaluation by examining the effectiveness of DPE, showing that EvalPerf is reliable and convenient to use even across platforms.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

Incremental learning aims to overcome catastrophic forgetting when learning deep networks from sequential tasks. With impressive learning efficiency and performance, prompt-based methods adopt a fixed backbone to sequential tasks by learning task-specific prompts. However, existing prompt-based methods heavily rely on strong pretraining (typically trained on ImageNet-21k), and we find that their models could be trapped if the potential gap between the pretraining task and unknown future tasks is large. In this work, we develop a learnable Adaptive Prompt Generator (APG). The key is to unify the prompt retrieval and prompt learning processes into a learnable prompt generator. Hence, the whole prompting process can be optimized to reduce the negative effects of the gap between tasks effectively. To make our APG avoid learning ineffective knowledge, we maintain a knowledge pool to regularize APG with the feature distribution of each class. Extensive experiments show that our method significantly outperforms advanced methods in exemplar-free incremental learning without (strong) pretraining. Besides, under strong retraining, our method also has comparable performance to existing prompt-based models, showing that our method can still benefit from pretraining. Codes can be found at https://github.com/TOM-tym/APG

As Large Language Models (LLMs) gain widespread practical application, providing the model family of different parameter sizes has become standard practice to address diverse computational requirements. Conventionally, each model in a family is trained independently, resulting in computational costs that scale additively with the number of models. We propose an efficient method for constructing the model family through progressive training, where smaller models are incrementally expanded to larger sizes to create a complete model family. Through extensive experiments with a model family ranging from 1B to 8B parameters, we demonstrate that our method reduces computational costs by approximately 25% while maintaining comparable performance to independently trained models. Furthermore, by strategically adjusting maximum learning rates based on model size, our method outperforms the independent training across various metrics. Beyond performance gains, our approach offers an additional advantage: models in our family tend to yield more consistent behavior across different model sizes.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) adapt well to downstream tasks after fine-tuning, this adaptability often compromises prompt robustness, as even minor prompt variations can significantly degrade performance. To address this, we propose Prompt-Agnostic Fine-Tuning(PAFT), a simple yet effective approach that dynamically adjusts prompts during fine-tuning. This encourages the model to learn underlying task principles rather than overfitting to specific prompt formulations. PAFT operates in two stages: First, a diverse set of meaningful, synthetic candidate prompts is constructed. Second, during fine-tuning, prompts are randomly sampled from this set to create dynamic training inputs. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and LLMs demonstrate that models trained with PAFT exhibit strong robustness and generalization across a wide range of prompts, including unseen ones. This enhanced robustness improves both model performance and inference speed while maintaining training efficiency. Ablation studies further confirm the effectiveness of PAFT.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Recent studies have shown LLMs possess some ability to improve their responses when given external feedback. However, it remains unclear how effectively and thoroughly these models can incorporate extrinsic feedback. In an ideal scenario, if LLMs receive near-perfect and complete feedback, we would expect them to fully integrate the feedback and change their incorrect answers to correct ones. In this paper, we systematically investigate LLMs' ability to incorporate feedback by designing a controlled experimental environment. For each problem, a solver model attempts a solution, then a feedback generator with access to near-complete ground-truth answers produces targeted feedback, after which the solver tries again. We evaluate this pipeline across a diverse range of tasks, including math reasoning, knowledge reasoning, scientific reasoning, and general multi-domain evaluations with state-of-the-art language models including Claude 3.7 (with and without extended thinking). Surprisingly, even under these near-ideal conditions, solver models consistently show resistance to feedback, a limitation that we term FEEDBACK FRICTION. To mitigate this limitation, we experiment with sampling-based strategies like progressive temperature increases and explicit rejection of previously attempted incorrect answers, which yield improvements but still fail to help models achieve target performance. We also perform a rigorous exploration of potential causes of FEEDBACK FRICTION, ruling out factors such as model overconfidence and data familiarity. We hope that highlighting this issue in LLMs and ruling out several apparent causes will help future research in self-improvement.

Large language models (LLMs) excel in most NLP tasks but also require expensive cloud servers for deployment due to their size, while smaller models that can be deployed on lower cost (e.g., edge) devices, tend to lag behind in terms of response quality. Therefore in this work we propose a hybrid inference approach which combines their respective strengths to save cost and maintain quality. Our approach uses a router that assigns queries to the small or large model based on the predicted query difficulty and the desired quality level. The desired quality level can be tuned dynamically at test time to seamlessly trade quality for cost as per the scenario requirements. In experiments our approach allows us to make up to 40% fewer calls to the large model, with no drop in response quality.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable success, yet they often suffer from producing unnecessary and verbose reasoning chains. We identify a core aspect of this issue as "invalid thinking" -- models tend to repeatedly double-check their work after having derived the correct answer. To address this specific inefficiency, we move beyond the general principles of Efficacy and Efficiency to propose two new, fine-grained principles: Brevity, which advocates for eliminating redundancy, and Sufficiency, which ensures critical reasoning steps are preserved. Guided by these principles, we introduce LC-R1, a post-training method based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). LC-R1 employs a novel combination of a Length Reward for overall conciseness and a Compress Reward that is specifically designed to remove the invalid portion of the thinking process. Extensive experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that LC-R1 achieves a significant reduction in sequence length (~50%) with only a marginal (~2%) drop in accuracy, achieving a favorable trade-off point on the Pareto frontier that prioritizes high compression. Our analysis further validates the robustness of LC-R1 and provides valuable insights for developing more powerful yet computationally efficient LRMs. Our code is released at https://github.com/zxiangx/LC-R1.

Applying Reinforcement Learning (RL) to sequence generation models enables the direct optimization of long-term rewards (e.g., BLEU and human feedback), but typically requires large-scale sampling over a space of action sequences. This is a computational challenge as presented by the practice of sequence generation problems, such as machine translation, where we often deal with a large action space (e.g., a vocabulary) and a long action sequence (e.g., a translation). In this work, we introduce two-stage sampling and dynamic sampling approaches to improve the sampling efficiency during training sequence generation models via RL. We experiment with our approaches on the traditional sequence generation tasks, including machine translation and abstractive summarization. Furthermore, we evaluate our approaches in RL from human feedback (RLHF) through training a large language model using the reward model. Experimental results show that the efficient sampling-based RL, referred to as ESRL, can outperform all baselines in terms of both training efficiency and memory consumption. Notably, ESRL yields consistent performance gains over the strong REINFORCE, minimum risk training, and proximal policy optimization methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing, yet aligning these models with human values and preferences using RLHF remains a significant challenge. This challenge is characterized by various instabilities, such as reward hacking and catastrophic forgetting. In this technical report, we propose two innovations to stabilize RLHF training: 1) Advantage Model, which directly models advantage score i.e., extra reward compared to the expected rewards and regulates score distributions across tasks to prevent reward hacking. 2) Selective Rehearsal, which mitigates catastrophic forgetting by strategically selecting data for PPO training and knowledge rehearsing. Our experimental analysis on public and proprietary datasets reveals that the proposed methods not only increase stability in RLHF training but also achieve higher reward scores and win rates.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have become a prevalent technique in deep learning for code, utilizing a two-stage pre-training and fine-tuning procedure to acquire general knowledge about code and specialize in a variety of downstream tasks. However, the dynamic nature of software codebases poses a challenge to the effectiveness and robustness of PLMs. In particular, world-realistic scenarios potentially lead to significant differences between the distribution of the pre-training and test data, i.e., distribution shift, resulting in a degradation of the PLM's performance on downstream tasks. In this paper, we stress the need for adapting PLMs of code to software data whose distribution changes over time, a crucial problem that has been overlooked in previous works. The motivation of this work is to consider the PLM in a non-stationary environment, where fine-tuning data evolves over time according to a software evolution scenario. Specifically, we design a scenario where the model needs to learn from a stream of programs containing new, unseen APIs over time. We study two widely used PLM architectures, i.e., a GPT2 decoder and a RoBERTa encoder, on two downstream tasks, API call and API usage prediction. We demonstrate that the most commonly used fine-tuning technique from prior work is not robust enough to handle the dynamic nature of APIs, leading to the loss of previously acquired knowledge i.e., catastrophic forgetting. To address these issues, we implement five continual learning approaches, including replay-based and regularization-based methods. Our findings demonstrate that utilizing these straightforward methods effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting in PLMs across both downstream tasks while achieving comparable or superior performance.

Compositional reinforcement learning is a promising approach for training policies to perform complex long-horizon tasks. Typically, a high-level task is decomposed into a sequence of subtasks and a separate policy is trained to perform each subtask. In this paper, we focus on the problem of training subtask policies in a way that they can be used to perform any task; here, a task is given by a sequence of subtasks. We aim to maximize the worst-case performance over all tasks as opposed to the average-case performance. We formulate the problem as a two agent zero-sum game in which the adversary picks the sequence of subtasks. We propose two RL algorithms to solve this game: one is an adaptation of existing multi-agent RL algorithms to our setting and the other is an asynchronous version which enables parallel training of subtask policies. We evaluate our approach on two multi-task environments with continuous states and actions and demonstrate that our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

Language agents have shown some ability to interact with an external environment, e.g., a virtual world such as ScienceWorld, to perform complex tasks, e.g., growing a plant, without the startup costs of reinforcement learning. However, despite their zero-shot capabilities, these agents to date do not continually improve over time beyond performance refinement on a specific task. Here we present CLIN, the first language-based agent to achieve this, so that it continually improves over multiple trials, including when both the environment and task are varied, and without requiring parameter updates. Our approach is to use a persistent, dynamic, textual memory centered on causal abstractions (rather than general "helpful hints") that is regularly updated after each trial so that the agent gradually learns useful knowledge for new trials. In the ScienceWorld benchmark, CLIN is able to continually improve on repeated trials on the same task and environment, outperforming state-of-the-art reflective language agents like Reflexion by 23 absolute points. CLIN can also transfer its learning to new environments (or new tasks), improving its zero-shot performance by 4 points (13 for new tasks) and can further improve performance there through continual memory updates, enhancing performance by an additional 17 points (7 for new tasks). This suggests a new architecture for agents built on frozen models that can still continually and rapidly improve over time.

Deep learning (DL)-based code completion tools have transformed software development by enabling advanced code generation. These tools leverage models trained on vast amounts of code from numerous repositories, capturing general coding patterns. However, the impact of fine-tuning these models for specific organizations or developers to boost their performance on such subjects remains unexplored. In this work, we fill this gap by presenting solid empirical evidence answering this question. More specifically, we consider 136 developers from two organizations (Apache and Spring), two model architectures (T5 and Code Llama), and three model sizes (60M, 750M, and 7B trainable parameters). T5 models (60M, 750M) were pre-trained and fine-tuned on over 2,000 open-source projects, excluding the subject organizations' data, and compared against versions fine-tuned on organization- and developer-specific datasets. For the Code Llama model (7B), we compared the performance of the already pre-trained model publicly available online with the same model fine-tuned via parameter-efficient fine-tuning on organization- and developer-specific datasets. Our results show that there is a boost in prediction capabilities provided by both an organization-specific and a developer-specific additional fine-tuning, with the former being particularly performant. Such a finding generalizes across (i) the two subject organizations (i.e., Apache and Spring) and (ii) models of completely different magnitude (from 60M to 7B trainable parameters). Finally, we show that DL models fine-tuned on an organization-specific dataset achieve the same completion performance of pre-trained code models used out of the box and being sim10times larger, with consequent savings in terms of deployment and inference cost (e.g., smaller GPUs needed).

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

We report the development of GPT-4, a large-scale, multimodal model which can accept image and text inputs and produce text outputs. While less capable than humans in many real-world scenarios, GPT-4 exhibits human-level performance on various professional and academic benchmarks, including passing a simulated bar exam with a score around the top 10% of test takers. GPT-4 is a Transformer-based model pre-trained to predict the next token in a document. The post-training alignment process results in improved performance on measures of factuality and adherence to desired behavior. A core component of this project was developing infrastructure and optimization methods that behave predictably across a wide range of scales. This allowed us to accurately predict some aspects of GPT-4's performance based on models trained with no more than 1/1,000th the compute of GPT-4.

When selecting data for training large-scale models, standard practice is to filter for examples that match human notions of data quality. Such filtering yields qualitatively clean datapoints that intuitively should improve model behavior. However, in practice the opposite can often happen: we find that selecting according to similarity with "high quality" data sources may not increase (and can even hurt) performance compared to randomly selecting data. To develop better methods for selecting data, we start by framing dataset selection as an optimization problem that we can directly solve for: given target tasks, a learning algorithm, and candidate data, select the subset that maximizes model performance. This framework thus avoids handpicked notions of data quality, and instead models explicitly how the learning process uses train datapoints to predict on the target tasks. Our resulting method greatly improves language model (LM) performance on both pre-specified tasks and previously unseen tasks. Specifically, choosing target tasks representative of standard LM problems and evaluating on diverse held-out benchmarks, our selected datasets provide a 2x compute multiplier over baseline methods.

The most popular framework for distributed training of machine learning models is the (synchronous) parameter server (PS). This paradigm consists of n workers, which iteratively compute updates of the model parameters, and a stateful PS, which waits and aggregates all updates to generate a new estimate of model parameters and sends it back to the workers for a new iteration. Transient computation slowdowns or transmission delays can intolerably lengthen the time of each iteration. An efficient way to mitigate this problem is to let the PS wait only for the fastest n-b updates, before generating the new parameters. The slowest b workers are called backup workers. The optimal number b of backup workers depends on the cluster configuration and workload, but also (as we show in this paper) on the hyper-parameters of the learning algorithm and the current stage of the training. We propose DBW, an algorithm that dynamically decides the number of backup workers during the training process to maximize the convergence speed at each iteration. Our experiments show that DBW 1) removes the necessity to tune b by preliminary time-consuming experiments, and 2) makes the training up to a factor 3 faster than the optimal static configuration.

Generating texts with a large language model (LLM) consumes massive amounts of memory. Apart from the already-large model parameters, the key/value (KV) cache that holds information about previous tokens in a sequence can grow to be even larger than the model itself. This problem is exacerbated in one of the current LLM serving frameworks which reserves the maximum sequence length of memory for the KV cache to guarantee generating a complete sequence as they do not know the output sequence length. This restricts us to use a smaller batch size leading to lower GPU utilization and above all, lower throughput. We argue that designing a system with a priori knowledge of the output sequence can mitigate this problem. To this end, we propose S^{3}, which predicts the output sequence length, schedules generation queries based on the prediction to increase device resource utilization and throughput, and handle mispredictions. Our proposed method achieves 6.49times throughput over those systems that assume the worst case for the output sequence length.

Motivated by equilibrium models of labor markets, we develop a formulation of causal strategic classification in which strategic agents can directly manipulate their outcomes. As an application, we compare employers that anticipate the strategic response of a labor force with employers that do not. We show through a combination of theory and experiment that employers with performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer reward, labor force skill level, and in some cases labor force equity. On the other hand, we demonstrate that performative employers harm labor force utility and fail to prevent discrimination in other cases.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

The effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) is closely tied to the design of prompts, making prompt optimization essential for enhancing their performance across a wide range of tasks. Many existing approaches to automating prompt engineering rely exclusively on textual feedback, refining prompts based solely on inference errors identified by large, computationally expensive LLMs. Unfortunately, smaller models struggle to generate high-quality feedback, resulting in complete dependence on large LLM judgment. Moreover, these methods fail to leverage more direct and finer-grained information, such as gradients, due to operating purely in text space. To this end, we introduce GReaTer, a novel prompt optimization technique that directly incorporates gradient information over task-specific reasoning. By utilizing task loss gradients, GReaTer enables self-optimization of prompts for open-source, lightweight language models without the need for costly closed-source LLMs. This allows high-performance prompt optimization without dependence on massive LLMs, closing the gap between smaller models and the sophisticated reasoning often needed for prompt refinement. Extensive evaluations across diverse reasoning tasks including BBH, GSM8k, and FOLIO demonstrate that GReaTer consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art prompt optimization methods, even those reliant on powerful LLMs. Additionally, GReaTer-optimized prompts frequently exhibit better transferability and, in some cases, boost task performance to levels comparable to or surpassing those achieved by larger language models, highlighting the effectiveness of prompt optimization guided by gradients over reasoning. Code of GReaTer is available at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/GreaTer.

Current research on generative language models (GLMs) for automated text scoring (ATS) has focused almost exclusively on querying proprietary models via Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). Yet such practices raise issues around transparency and security, and these methods offer little in the way of efficiency or customizability. With the recent proliferation of smaller, open-source models, there is the option to explore GLMs with computers equipped with modest, consumer-grade hardware, that is, for the "GPU poor." In this study, we analyze the performance and efficiency of open-source, small-scale GLMs for ATS. Results show that GLMs can be fine-tuned to achieve adequate, though not state-of-the-art, performance. In addition to ATS, we take small steps towards analyzing models' capacity for generating feedback by prompting GLMs to explain their scores. Model-generated feedback shows promise, but requires more rigorous evaluation focused on targeted use cases.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

We present a bag of tricks framework for few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL), which is a challenging form of continual learning that involves continuous adaptation to new tasks with limited samples. FSCIL requires both stability and adaptability, i.e., preserving proficiency in previously learned tasks while learning new ones. Our proposed bag of tricks brings together eight key and highly influential techniques that improve stability, adaptability, and overall performance under a unified framework for FSCIL. We organize these tricks into three categories: stability tricks, adaptability tricks, and training tricks. Stability tricks aim to mitigate the forgetting of previously learned classes by enhancing the separation between the embeddings of learned classes and minimizing interference when learning new ones. On the other hand, adaptability tricks focus on the effective learning of new classes. Finally, training tricks improve the overall performance without compromising stability or adaptability. We perform extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets, CIFAR-100, CUB-200, and miniIMageNet, to evaluate the impact of our proposed framework. Our detailed analysis shows that our approach substantially improves both stability and adaptability, establishing a new state-of-the-art by outperforming prior works in the area. We believe our method provides a go-to solution and establishes a robust baseline for future research in this area.

Incrementally fine-tuning foundational models on new tasks or domains is now the de facto approach in NLP. A known pitfall of this approach is the catastrophic forgetting of prior knowledge that happens during fine-tuning. A common approach to alleviate such forgetting is to rehearse samples from prior tasks during fine-tuning. Several existing works assume a fixed memory buffer to store prior task examples, while relying on inferences (forward passes) with the model at hand for choosing examples for rehearsal from the buffer. However, given the increasing computational cost of model inference, and decreasing cost of data storage, we focus on the setting to rehearse samples with a fixed computational budget instead of a fixed memory budget. We propose a sampling scheme, \bf mix-cd, that prioritizes rehearsal of ``collateral damage'' samples, which are samples predicted correctly by the prior model but forgotten by the incrementally tuned one. The crux of our scheme is a procedure to efficiently estimate the density of collateral damage samples without incurring additional model inferences. Our approach is computationally efficient, easy to implement, and outperforms several leading continual learning methods in compute-constrained settings. All the code will be publicly available at https://github.com/jybai/mix-cd-rehearsal.

Training models to act as agents that can effectively navigate and perform actions in a complex environment, such as a web browser, has typically been challenging due to lack of training data. Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated some capability to navigate novel environments as agents in a zero-shot or few-shot fashion, purely guided by natural language instructions as prompts. Recent research has also demonstrated LLMs have the capability to exceed their base performance through self-improvement, i.e. fine-tuning on data generated by the model itself. In this work, we explore the extent to which LLMs can self-improve their performance as agents in long-horizon tasks in a complex environment using the WebArena benchmark. In WebArena, an agent must autonomously navigate and perform actions on web pages to achieve a specified objective. We explore fine-tuning on three distinct synthetic training data mixtures and achieve a 31\% improvement in task completion rate over the base model on the WebArena benchmark through a self-improvement procedure. We additionally contribute novel evaluation metrics for assessing the performance, robustness, capabilities, and quality of trajectories of our fine-tuned agent models to a greater degree than simple, aggregate-level benchmark scores currently used to measure self-improvement.

Enabling LLMs to improve their outputs by using more test-time computation is a critical step towards building generally self-improving agents that can operate on open-ended natural language. In this paper, we study the scaling of inference-time computation in LLMs, with a focus on answering the question: if an LLM is allowed to use a fixed but non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve its performance on a challenging prompt? Answering this question has implications not only on the achievable performance of LLMs, but also on the future of LLM pretraining and how one should tradeoff inference-time and pre-training compute. Despite its importance, little research attempted to understand the scaling behaviors of various test-time inference methods. Moreover, current work largely provides negative results for a number of these strategies. In this work, we analyze two primary mechanisms to scale test-time computation: (1) searching against dense, process-based verifier reward models; and (2) updating the model's distribution over a response adaptively, given the prompt at test time. We find that in both cases, the effectiveness of different approaches to scaling test-time compute critically varies depending on the difficulty of the prompt. This observation motivates applying a "compute-optimal" scaling strategy, which acts to most effectively allocate test-time compute adaptively per prompt. Using this compute-optimal strategy, we can improve the efficiency of test-time compute scaling by more than 4x compared to a best-of-N baseline. Additionally, in a FLOPs-matched evaluation, we find that on problems where a smaller base model attains somewhat non-trivial success rates, test-time compute can be used to outperform a 14x larger model.

While AI agents hold transformative potential in business, effective performance benchmarking is hindered by the scarcity of public, realistic business data on widely used platforms. Existing benchmarks often lack fidelity in their environments, data, and agent-user interactions, with limited coverage of diverse business scenarios and industries. To address these gaps, we introduce CRMArena-Pro, a novel benchmark for holistic, realistic assessment of LLM agents in diverse professional settings. CRMArena-Pro expands on CRMArena with nineteen expert-validated tasks across sales, service, and 'configure, price, and quote' processes, for both Business-to-Business and Business-to-Customer scenarios. It distinctively incorporates multi-turn interactions guided by diverse personas and robust confidentiality awareness assessments. Experiments reveal leading LLM agents achieve only around 58% single-turn success on CRMArena-Pro, with performance dropping significantly to approximately 35% in multi-turn settings. While Workflow Execution proves more tractable for top agents (over 83% single-turn success), other evaluated business skills present greater challenges. Furthermore, agents exhibit near-zero inherent confidentiality awareness; though targeted prompting can improve this, it often compromises task performance. These findings highlight a substantial gap between current LLM capabilities and enterprise demands, underscoring the need for advancements in multi-turn reasoning, confidentiality adherence, and versatile skill acquisition.

Exponential increases in scientific experimental data are outstripping the rate of progress in silicon technology. As a result, heterogeneous combinations of architectures and process or device technologies are increasingly important to meet the computing demands of future scientific experiments. However, the complexity of heterogeneous computing systems requires systematic modeling to understand performance. We present a model which addresses this need by framing key aspects of data collection pipelines and constraints, and combines them with the important vectors of technology that shape alternatives, computing metrics that allow complex alternatives to be compared. For instance, a data collection pipeline may be characterized by parameters such as sensor sampling rates, amount of data collected, and the overall relevancy of retrieved samples. Alternatives to this pipeline are enabled by hardware development vectors including advancing CMOS, GPUs, neuromorphic computing, and edge computing. By calculating metrics for each alternative such as overall F1 score, power, hardware cost, and energy expended per relevant sample, this model allows alternate data collection systems to be rigorously compared. To demonstrate this model's capability, we apply it to the CMS experiment (and planned HL-LHC upgrade) to evaluate and compare the application of novel technologies in the data acquisition system (DAQ). We demonstrate that improvements to early stages in the DAQ are highly beneficial, greatly reducing the resources required at later stages of processing (such as a 60% power reduction) and increasing the amount of relevant data retrieved from the experiment per unit power (improving from 0.065 to 0.31 samples/kJ) However, we predict further advances will be required in order to meet overall power and cost constraints for the DAQ.

Integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with Knowledge Graphs (KGs) results in complex systems with numerous hyperparameters that directly affect performance. While such systems are increasingly common in retrieval-augmented generation, the role of systematic hyperparameter optimization remains underexplored. In this paper, we study this problem in the context of Cognee, a modular framework for end-to-end KG construction and retrieval. Using three multi-hop QA benchmarks (HotPotQA, TwoWikiMultiHop, and MuSiQue) we optimize parameters related to chunking, graph construction, retrieval, and prompting. Each configuration is scored using established metrics (exact match, F1, and DeepEval's LLM-based correctness metric). Our results demonstrate that meaningful gains can be achieved through targeted tuning. While the gains are consistent, they are not uniform, with performance varying across datasets and metrics. This variability highlights both the value of tuning and the limitations of standard evaluation measures. While demonstrating the immediate potential of hyperparameter tuning, we argue that future progress will depend not only on architectural advances but also on clearer frameworks for optimization and evaluation in complex, modular systems.

Fine-tuning (via methods such as instruction-tuning or reinforcement learning from human feedback) is a crucial step in training language models to robustly carry out tasks of interest. However, we lack a systematic understanding of the effects of fine-tuning, particularly on tasks outside the narrow fine-tuning distribution. In a simplified scenario, we demonstrate that improving performance on tasks within the fine-tuning data distribution comes at the expense of suppressing model capabilities on other tasks. This degradation is especially pronounced for tasks "closest" to the fine-tuning distribution. We hypothesize that language models implicitly infer the task of the prompt corresponds, and the fine-tuning process predominantly skews this task inference towards tasks in the fine-tuning distribution. To test this hypothesis, we propose Conjugate Prompting to see if we can recover pretrained capabilities. Conjugate prompting artificially makes the task look farther from the fine-tuning distribution while requiring the same capability. We find that conjugate prompting systematically recovers some of the pretraining capabilities on our synthetic setup. We then apply conjugate prompting to real-world LLMs using the observation that fine-tuning distributions are typically heavily skewed towards English. We find that simply translating the prompts to different languages can cause the fine-tuned models to respond like their pretrained counterparts instead. This allows us to recover the in-context learning abilities lost via instruction tuning, and more concerningly, to recover harmful content generation suppressed by safety fine-tuning in chatbots like ChatGPT.

We investigate the rate at which algorithms for pre-training language models have improved since the advent of deep learning. Using a dataset of over 200 language model evaluations on Wikitext and Penn Treebank spanning 2012-2023, we find that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months, with a 95% confidence interval of around 5 to 14 months, substantially faster than hardware gains per Moore's Law. We estimate augmented scaling laws, which enable us to quantify algorithmic progress and determine the relative contributions of scaling models versus innovations in training algorithms. Despite the rapid pace of algorithmic progress and the development of new architectures such as the transformer, our analysis reveals that the increase in compute made an even larger contribution to overall performance improvements over this time period. Though limited by noisy benchmark data, our analysis quantifies the rapid progress in language modeling, shedding light on the relative contributions from compute and algorithms.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

LLMs have shown impressive progress in robotics (e.g., manipulation and navigation) with natural language task descriptions. The success of LLMs in these tasks leads us to wonder: What is the ability of LLMs to solve vehicle routing problems (VRPs) with natural language task descriptions? In this work, we study this question in three steps. First, we construct a dataset with 21 types of single- or multi-vehicle routing problems. Second, we evaluate the performance of LLMs across four basic prompt paradigms of text-to-code generation, each involving different types of text input. We find that the basic prompt paradigm, which generates code directly from natural language task descriptions, performs the best for GPT-4, achieving 56% feasibility, 40% optimality, and 53% efficiency. Third, based on the observation that LLMs may not be able to provide correct solutions at the initial attempt, we propose a framework that enables LLMs to refine solutions through self-reflection, including self-debugging and self-verification. With GPT-4, our proposed framework achieves a 16% increase in feasibility, a 7% increase in optimality, and a 15% increase in efficiency. Moreover, we examine the sensitivity of GPT-4 to task descriptions, specifically focusing on how its performance changes when certain details are omitted from the task descriptions, yet the core meaning is preserved. Our findings reveal that such omissions lead to a notable decrease in performance: 4% in feasibility, 4% in optimality, and 5% in efficiency. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/words-to-routes/

Recent studies have put into question the belief that emergent abilities in language models are exclusive to large models. This skepticism arises from two observations: 1) smaller models can also exhibit high performance on emergent abilities and 2) there is doubt on the discontinuous metrics used to measure these abilities. In this paper, we propose to study emergent abilities in the lens of pre-training loss, instead of model size or training compute. We demonstrate that the models with the same pre-training loss, but different model and data sizes, generate the same performance on various downstream tasks. We also discover that a model exhibits emergent abilities on certain tasks -- regardless of the continuity of metrics -- when its pre-training loss falls below a specific threshold. Before reaching this threshold, its performance remains at the level of random guessing. This inspires us to redefine emergent abilities as those that manifest in models with lower pre-training losses, highlighting that these abilities cannot be predicted by merely extrapolating the performance trends of models with higher pre-training losses.