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menu-item-10877"id=menu-item-10877><a href=https://thepowerrank.com/login/ itemprop=url> <span itemprop=name> Login </span> </a><li class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-17824"id=menu-item-17824><a href=https://thepowerrank.com/become-a-member/ itemprop=url> <span itemprop=name> Become a member </span> </a><li class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-19973"id=menu-item-19973><a href=https://thepowerrank.com/covid-19-policy/ itemprop=url> <span itemprop=name> COVID-19 Policy </span> </a></ul><li><a href=https://thepowerrank.com/login/> Log in </a></ul></div></nav></div></div><div id=wrap><div id=inner><div class=content-sidebar-wrap><main class=content><article class="post-2344 page type-page status-publish has-post-thumbnail entry"itemscope itemtype=https://schema.org/CreativeWork><header class=entry-header><h1 class=entry-title itemprop=headline>Predictions</h1></header><div class=entry-content itemprop=text><a id=dd_start> </a><div class=dd_post_share><div class=dd_buttons><div class=dd_button><a class=twitter-share-button data-count=horizontal data-text=Predictions data-url=https://thepowerrank.com/predictions/ data-via=thepowerrank href=http://twitter.com/share> </a><script src=//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js></script></div><div class=dd_button><script src=//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1></script><fb:like href=https://thepowerrank.com/predictions/ layout=button_count send=false show_faces=false width=92> </fb:like></div></div><div style=clear:both></div></div><div style=clear:both></div><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px"srcset="https://thepowerrank.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/front_image_phd_edge.jpg 1000w, https://thepowerrank.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/front_image_phd_edge-300x90.jpg 300w, https://thepowerrank.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/front_image_phd_edge-768x230.jpg 768w"alt class=wp-image-14594 height=300 loading=lazy src=https://thepowerrank.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/front_image_phd_edge.jpg width=1000></figure><p>The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.<h2>Get a sample of my best football predictions</h2><p>If you sign up for my free email newsletter, you get a sample of my best football predictions usually saved for paying members of the site. Each week, I also provide analysis on each of the games.<p>Here is some unsolicited feedback on the 2020 version of the newsletter.<blockquote class=wp-block-quote><p>A remarkable newsletter.</p><cite> — Michael H. </cite></blockquote><blockquote class=wp-block-quote><p>This newsletter is a different take on football action. Curious and thoughtful.</p><cite> — Gino G. </cite></blockquote><p>To get these services, sign up for my <em> free </em> email newsletter. Enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”<p><p><p><style>#af-form-425502978 .af-body .af-textWrap{width:98%;display:block;float:none;}<br />
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}<br /></style><form accept-charset=UTF-8 action=https://www.aweber.com/scripts/addlead.pl class=af-form-wrapper method=post><div style="display: none;"><input name=meta_web_form_id type=hidden value=425502978><br><input name=meta_split_id type=hidden><br><input name=listname type=hidden value=thepowerrank><br><input id=redirect_da9d425521764b29eef26917abbad80e name=redirect type=hidden value=https://thepowerrank.com/please-confirm/><br><input name=meta_redirect_onlist type=hidden value=https://thepowerrank.com/you-have-already-subscribed/><br><input name=meta_adtracking type=hidden value=The_Power_Rank,_Front_Page,_Red_Button><br><input name=meta_message type=hidden value=1><br><input name=meta_required type=hidden value=email><input value="email||Enter your best email"name=meta_tooltip type=hidden><p> </div><div class=af-form id=af-form-425502978><div class="af-body af-standards"id=af-body-425502978><div class=af-element><label class=previewLabel for=awf_field-74824525></label><div class=af-textWrap><input value="Enter your best email"class=text id=awf_field-74824525 name=email tabindex=500></div><div class=af-clear> </div></div><div class="af-element buttonContainer"><input value="Sign up now!"class=submit name=submit tabindex=501 type=submit><div class=af-clear> </div></div></div></div><div style="display: none;"><img alt src=https://forms.aweber.com/form/displays.htm?id=LEysrAxMnOwc></div></form><p><script><br />
    <!-- (function() { var IE = /*@cc_on!@*/false; if (!IE) { return; } if (document.compatMode && document.compatMode == 'BackCompat') { if (document.getElementById("af-form-425502978")) { document.getElementById("af-form-425502978").className = 'af-form af-quirksMode'; } if (document.getElementById("af-body-425502978")) { document.getElementById("af-body-425502978").className = "af-body inline af-quirksMode"; } if (document.getElementById("af-header-425502978")) { document.getElementById("af-header-425502978").className = "af-header af-quirksMode"; } if (document.getElementById("af-footer-425502978")) { document.getElementById("af-footer-425502978").className = "af-footer af-quirksMode"; } } })(); --><br /></script><p><p><h2>NFL, Super Bowl</h2><p>These predictions are based on my team rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule. There is also a preseason component that gets less weight with each week.<p>Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions. To learn more, click <a data-id=14783 data-type=page href=https://thepowerrank.com/become-a-member/> here </a> .<p><strong> 1. Kansas City versus Tampa Bay at a neutral site. </strong> <br> Kansas City (1) will beat Tampa Bay (3) by 1.3 at a neutral site. Tampa Bay has a 46% chance of beating Kansas City.<h2>College Football Championship Game</h2><p>In 2020, the <a rel="noreferrer noopener"href=https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/ target=_blank> college football team rankings </a> are based on games from the 2019 and 2020 season, with the current season getting twice the weight. A home field of 1.2 points is used.<p>This prediction below based on points is off and favors the wrong team. Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions based on more data sources. To learn more, click <a rel="noreferrer noopener"data-id=14783 data-type=page href=https://thepowerrank.com/become-a-member/ target=_blank> here </a> .<p><strong> 1. Ohio State versus Alabama at a neutral site. </strong> <br> Ohio State (1) will beat Alabama (2) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Alabama has a 46% chance of beating Ohio State.<h2>Major League Baseball</h2><p>There will be no more baseball predictions for 2020. There’s a bug with my updating system, and I don’t have the time during football season to fix it. My apologies.<p>The matchup shows the projected FIP for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.<p>The integer in parentheses gives the team’s <a rel="noopener noreferrer"title="MLB Rankings"href=http://thepowerrank.com/mlb/ target=_blank> rank in The Power Rank </a> .<p>Since Aug 18, 2020, the team with the higher win probability has won 327 of 591 games for a win percentage of 55.3%.<p>The team favored by the markets has won 340.0 of 591 games for a win percentage of 57.5%.<h2>European Club Soccer</h2><p>These predictions are based on expected goals (xG) from past matches. This raw data is obtained from <a rel="noreferrer noopener"href=https://fbref.com/en/ target=_blank> FBRef </a> . I adjust for strength of schedule based on a least squares algorithm, which is equivalent to the Simple Rating System.<p>After these schedule adjustments, I have offensive and defensive ratings for each team. These numbers imply goal rates for each team in a match.<p>I assume a Poisson model and calculate the probability for a win, loss and draw. I’m assuming a home advantage of 0.12 goals based on matches with no fans.<h2>College Basketball</h2><p>To learn more about how the efficiency prediction works, check out my <a aria-label="ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics (opens in a new tab)"rel="noreferrer noopener"href=https://thepowerrank.com/cbb-analytics/ target=_blank> ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics </a> .<h2>World Soccer Football</h2><a id=dd_end> </a><div class=dd_outer><div class=dd_inner><div id=dd_ajax_float><div class=dd_button_v><a class=twitter-share-button data-count=vertical data-text=Predictions data-url=https://thepowerrank.com/predictions/ data-via=thepowerrank href=http://twitter.com/share> </a><script src=//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js></script></div><div style=clear:left></div><div class=dd_button_v><script src=//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1></script><fb:like href=https://thepowerrank.com/predictions/ layout=box_count send=false show_faces=false width=50> </fb:like></div><div style=clear:left></div><div class=dd_button_v><script src=https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js></script><g:plusone href=https://thepowerrank.com/predictions/ size=tall> </g:plusone></div><div style=clear:left></div><div class=dd_button_v><script src=//platform.linkedin.com/in.js></script><script data-counter=top data-url=https://thepowerrank.com/predictions/ type=in/share>
            </script></div><div style=clear:left></div></div></div></div><script>var dd_offset_from_content = 50;var dd_top_offset_from_content = 0;var dd_override_start_anchor_id = "";var dd_override_top_offset = "";</script><script src=https://thepowerrank.com/wp-content/plugins/digg-digg//js/diggdigg-floating-bar.js?ver=5.3.6></script></div></article></main><aside aria-label="Primary Sidebar"class="sidebar sidebar-primary widget-area"itemscope itemtype=https://schema.org/WPSideBar role=complementary><section class="widget widget_text"id=text-4><div class=widget-wrap><h4 class="widget-title widgettitle">Predictions from Ed Feng</h4><div class=textwidget><a href=https://thepowerrank.com/about/> <img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-14478"alt height=75 src=https://thepowerrank.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ed_Feng_circle_75x75.png width=75> </a> I use my Stanford Ph.D. in applied math to make football and March Madness predictions. <br><br> To get a sample of my best American football predictions and March Madness cheat sheet, sign up for my free email newsletter. <br><br> Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!" <br><br><style>#af-form-425502978 .af-body .af-textWrap{width:98%;display:block;float:none;}
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