# **Long/Short Global Macro Strategies with Target β Using the 3-Factor Model**
Authors: Theo Dimitrasopoulos✝, Yuki Homma✝

Advisor: Papa Momar Ndiaye✝

✝ Department of Financial Engineering; Stevens Institute of Technology Babbio School of Business

## **Authors**

**Final Project**

FE630: Modern Portfolio Theory & Applications

### Yuki Homma

Contribution: Presentation Preparation, Manuscript Generation

Stevens MS in Financial Engineering '21

### Theo Dimitrasopoulos

Contribution: Quant Analysis, Programming

Stevens MS in Financial Engineering '21 | Princeton '17

theonovak.com | +1 (609) 933-2990

## **Introduction**

### Investment Strategy

We build a Long-Short Global Macro Strategy with a Beta target using a factor-based model and evaluate its sensitivity to variations of Beta.

To optimize the portfolios, we deploy the following strategies:
1. Maximize the return of the portfolio subject to a constraint of target Beta, where Beta is the single-factor market risk measure. This allows us to evaluate the sensitivity of the portfolios to variations of Beta. The portfolio is re-optimized (weight recalibration) every week for the investment horizon between March 2007 to the end of October 2020.
2. Minimum variance with a target return.

### Optimization Problem:

The strategy aims to maximize return with a certain Target Beta under constraints.

It is defined as,

\begin{cases}
\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}\rho^{T}\omega-\lambda(\omega-\omega_{p})^{T}\Sigma(\omega-\omega_{p})\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}=\beta_{T}^{m}\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \omega_{i}=1, -2\leq\omega_{i}\leq2
\end{cases}

$\Sigma$ is the the covariance matrix between the securities returns (computed from
the Factor Model), $\omega_{p}$ is the composition of a reference Portfolio (the previous Portfolio when rebalancing the portfolio and $\omega_{p}$ has all its components equal to $1/n$ for the first allocation) and $\lambda$ is a small regularization parameter to limit the turnover;

$\beta_{i}^{m}=\frac{cov(r_{i},r_{M}}{\sigma^{2}(r_{M})}$ is the Beta of security $S_{i}$ as defined in the CAPM Model so that $\beta_{P}^{m}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}\beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}$ is the Beta of the Portfolio;

$\beta_{T}^{m}$ is the Portfolio's Target Beta, for example $\beta_{T}^{m}=-1$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=-0.5$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=0$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=0.5$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=1.5$.

### Equivalent Optimization Problem:

We can reformulate the optimization problem above to make the programming process more straightforward:

$(\omega-\omega_{p})^{T}\Sigma(\omega-\omega_{p})\rightarrow$

$=(\omega-\omega_{p})^{T}\Sigma\omega-(\omega-\omega_{p} )^{T}\Sigma\omega_{p}$

$=\omega^{T} \Sigma\omega-2(\omega^{T} \Sigma\omega_{p})+\omega_{p}^{T}\Sigma \omega_{p}$

We simplify,
- $d=\rho-2\lambda\Sigma\omega_{p}$
- $P=\lambda\Sigma$

Finally,

$\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}(\rho-2\lambda\Sigma\omega_{p} )^{T} \omega-\lambda\omega^{T}\Sigma\omega+\lambda\omega_{p}^{T}\Sigma\omega_{p}=\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}d^{T}\omega-\omega^{T}P\omega$


---

The following formulation is equivalent,

\begin{cases}
\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}d^{T}\omega-\omega^{T}P\omega\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}=\beta_{T}^{m}\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \omega_{i}=1, -2\leq\omega_{i}\leq2
\end{cases}
- $\Sigma$ is the the covariance matrix between the returns of the portfolio assets;
- $\omega_{p}$ is the composition of a reference Portfolio:
  - When rebalancing the portfolio, $\omega_{p}$ is the previous portfolio
  - $\omega_{p}$ has all its components equal to $1/n$ for the first allocation
- $\lambda$ is a regularization parameter to limit the turnover
- $\beta_{i}^{m}=\frac{cov(r_{i},r_{M}}{\sigma^{2}(r_{M})}$ is the Beta of security $S_{i}$ as defined in the CAPM Model s.t. $\beta_{P}^{m}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}\beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}$ is the portfolio Beta
- $\beta_{T}^{m}$ is the Portfolio's Target Beta.

### Fama French 3-Factor Model

A three-factor model proposed by Fama and French(1993), includes not only market excess return, but a capitalization size and book to market ratio will also be added in as influencing factors.

The random return of a given security is given by the formulas (equivalent),

\begin{equation}
\boxed{r = r_{f}+\beta_{1}(r_{m}-r_{f})+\beta{2}(SMB)+\beta_{3}(HML)+\epsilon}
\end{equation}

\begin{equation}
\boxed{R_{i}-r_{f}=\alpha_{i}+\beta{i}^{MKT}(R_{M}-r_{f})+\beta_{i}^{SMB}R_{SMB}+\beta_{i}^{HML}R_{HML}}
\end{equation}


- rSMB represents small size variables minus big one
- rHML represents high minus low in book value to equity to book value to the market.

### ETF Data

The following ETFs represent the investment Universe of our portfolios. They range from the S&P 500 to ETFs representing all continents such as Europe, Asia and Africa and asset types such as bonds, stocks, and commodities.

1. CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
2. iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ)
3. SPDR GOLD Trust (GLD)
4. Powershares NASDAQ-100 Trust (QQQ)
5. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)$^*$
6. iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond (SHV)
7. PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)
8. United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
9. SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI)
10. iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF)
11. iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund (EPP)
12. SPDR DJ Euro Stoxx 50 (FEZ)

From this universe, we have created portfolios by utilizing the 3-factor Fama-French model. The investment portfolio that we created is compared to the following benchmark portfolios:

1.	The Market Portfolio (S&P 500) 

The dataset includes daily price data between March 1st, 2007 to October 31th, 2020. We choose this investment horizon to match the Fama-French Factor data available.

We have used three different look-back periods, which we have defined as: A. Short Term – 60 Days B. Medium Term – 120 Days C. Long Term – 200 Days To calculate the risk-return parameters of then portfolio we have used the target Beta as -1, -0.5, 0, 0.5, 1 and 1.5. The rebalance period is kept as one week as specified in the project.

*$^*$The SPY market portfolio is the chosen benchmark*

## **Setup**


```
## Update System
#!apt-get update
#!apt-get upgrade
#!apt-get autoremove

## Install Packages
!apt-get install tree
!apt install texlive-fonts-recommended texlive-fonts-extra cm-super dvipng

```

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    Suggested packages:
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      fonts-open-sans fonts-roboto-hinted fonts-sil-gentium
      fonts-sil-gentium-basic fonts-sil-gentiumplus fonts-sil-gentiumplus-compact
      fonts-stix fonts-texgyre ghostscript gsfonts javascript-common
      libcupsfilters1 libcupsimage2 libgs9 libgs9-common libijs-0.35 libjbig2dec0
      libjs-jquery libkpathsea6 libpotrace0 libptexenc1 libruby2.5 libsynctex1
      libtexlua52 libtexluajit2 libzzip-0-13 lmodern pfb2t1c2pfb poppler-data
      preview-latex-style rake ruby ruby-did-you-mean ruby-minitest
      ruby-net-telnet ruby-power-assert ruby-test-unit ruby2.5
      rubygems-integration t1utils tex-common tex-gyre texlive-base
      texlive-binaries texlive-fonts-extra texlive-fonts-extra-links
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    update-alternatives: using /usr/bin/xdvi-xaw to provide /usr/bin/xdvi.bin (xdvi.bin) in auto mode
    update-alternatives: using /usr/bin/bibtex.original to provide /usr/bin/bibtex (bibtex) in auto mode
    Setting up texlive-base (2017.20180305-1) ...
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    mktexlsr: Updating /var/lib/texmf/ls-R... 
    mktexlsr: Done.
    tl-paper: setting paper size for dvips to a4: /var/lib/texmf/dvips/config/config-paper.ps
    tl-paper: setting paper size for dvipdfmx to a4: /var/lib/texmf/dvipdfmx/dvipdfmx-paper.cfg
    tl-paper: setting paper size for xdvi to a4: /var/lib/texmf/xdvi/XDvi-paper
    tl-paper: setting paper size for pdftex to a4: /var/lib/texmf/tex/generic/config/pdftexconfig.tex
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    Regenerating '/var/lib/texmf/fmtutil.cnf-DEBIAN'... done.
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    update-fmtutil has updated the following file(s):
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    	/var/lib/texmf/fmtutil.cnf-TEXLIVEDIST
    If you want to activate the changes in the above file(s),
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    Setting up cm-super-minimal (0.3.4-11) ...
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    Creating fonts. This may take some time... done.
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    Processing triggers for mime-support (3.60ubuntu1) ...
    Processing triggers for libc-bin (2.27-3ubuntu1.3) ...
    /sbin/ldconfig.real: /usr/local/lib/python3.6/dist-packages/ideep4py/lib/libmkldnn.so.0 is not a symbolic link
    
    Processing triggers for man-db (2.8.3-2ubuntu0.1) ...
    Processing triggers for fontconfig (2.12.6-0ubuntu2) ...
    Processing triggers for tex-common (6.09) ...
    Running updmap-sys. This may take some time... done.
    Running mktexlsr /var/lib/texmf ... done.
    Building format(s) --all.
    	This may take some time... done.


### System Time


```
print('System time_________________')
!date
!rm /etc/localtime
!ln -s /usr/share/zoneinfo/America/New_York /etc/localtime
print('\nProcessing...\nSystem time updated\n\nUpdated time________________')
!date

```

    System time_________________
    Thu Jan 28 23:54:37 UTC 2021
    
    Processing...
    System time updated
    
    Updated time________________
    Thu Jan 28 18:54:37 EST 2021


### Environment


```
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-

# ENVIRONMENT CHECK:
import sys, os, inspect, site, pprint
# Check whether in Colab:
IN_COLAB = 'google.colab' in sys.modules
if IN_COLAB == True:
  print('YES, this is a Google Colaboratory environment.')
else:
  print('NO, this is not a Google Colaboratory environment.')
print(' ')

# Python installation files:
stdlib = os.path.dirname(inspect.getfile(os))
python_version = !python --version
print('Python Standard Library is located in:\n' + stdlib)
print(' ')
print('This environment is using {}'.format(str(python_version[0])))
print(' ')
print('Local system packages are located in:')
pprint.pprint(site.getsitepackages())
print(' ')
print('Local user packages are located in:\n' + site.getusersitepackages())

```

    YES, this is a Google Colaboratory environment.
     
    Python Standard Library is located in:
    /usr/lib/python3.6
     
    This environment is using Python 3.6.9
     
    Local system packages are located in:
    ['/usr/local/lib/python3.6/dist-packages',
     '/usr/lib/python3/dist-packages',
     '/usr/lib/python3.6/dist-packages']
     
    Local user packages are located in:
    /root/.local/lib/python3.6/site-packages


### Default Packages


```
## Installed packages:
#!pip list -v
#!pip list --user -v

```

### Mount Google Drive


```
# Mount Google Drive:
if IN_COLAB:
  from google.colab import drive, output
  drive.mount('/content/drive', force_remount=True)

```

    Mounted at /content/drive


### System Environment Variables


```
# Define Paths:
if IN_COLAB:
  graphs_dir = '/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/report/graphics/'
  data_dir = '/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/data/'
  source_dir = '/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/'
else:
  graphs_dir = 'C:/Users/theon/GDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/report/graphics/'
  data_dir = 'C:/Users/theon/GDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/data/'
  source_dir = '/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/'

```

### Packages

#### Uninstall/Install Packages:


```
### Note: The kernel needs to be restarted after this procedure.
### os.kill(os.getpid(), 9) kills it automatically, but do "Runtime > Restart Runtime" regardless.

if IN_COLAB:
  # Uninstall Existing Libraries
  !pip uninstall bs4 -y
  !pip uninstall textract -y
  !pip uninstall numpy -y
#  !pip uninstall pandas -y
#  !pip uninstall cvxopt -y
#  !pip uninstall matplotlib -y
#  !pip uninstall pandas-datareader -y
#  !pip uninstall zipline -y
#  !pip uninstall pyfolio -y
#  !pip uninstall alphalens -y
#  !pip uninstall empyrical -y
#  !pip uninstall mlfinlab -y
#  !pip uninstall requests -y
#  !pip uninstall tqdm -y
#  !pip uninstall pytz -y
#  !pip uninstall ipython-autotime -y
#  !pip uninstall nltk -y
#  !pip uninstall quandl -y
#  !pip uninstall scikit-plot -y
#  !pip uninstall seaborn -y
#  !pip uninstall sklearn -y
#  !pip uninstall torch -y
#  !pip uninstall transformers -y
#  !pip uninstall wordcloud -y
#  !pip uninstall xgboost -y
#
#  # Install Libraries
#  !pip install bs4
#  !pip install textract
#  !pip install numpy
#  !pip install pandas
#  !pip install cvxopt
#  !pip install matplotlib
#  !pip install pandas-datareader
#  !pip install zipline
#  !pip install pyfolio
#  !pip install alphalens
#  !pip install empyrical
#  !pip install mlfinlab
#  !pip install requests
#  !pip install tqdm
#  !pip install pytz
#  !pip install ipython-autotime
#  !pip install nltk
#  !pip install quandl
#  !pip install scikit-plot
#  !pip install seaborn
#  !pip install sklearn
#  !pip install torch==1.7.1+cu101 torchvision==0.8.2+cu101 -f https://download.pytorch.org/whl/torch_stable.html
#  !pip install transformers
#  !pip install wordcloud
#  !pip install xgboost
#  os.kill(os.getpid(), 9)

```

#### Inspect Packages


```
!pip list -v
!pip list --user -v

```

#### Import Packages:


```
# Python Libraries
import pprint
import os
import io
import re
import pickle
from tqdm.notebook import tqdm
import logging
import random
from collections import defaultdict, Counter

# Import Time Libraries
import datetime as dt
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from dateutil.relativedelta import *
from pytz import timezone
from pytz import all_timezones_set
import pytz
import time

# Import Data Science Libraries
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import scipy
import scipy.stats as ss
from scipy.stats import kurtosis,skew,norm
from scipy.optimize import minimize, least_squares
import statsmodels.api as smf

# Import Optimization Libraries
from cvxopt import matrix, solvers

## Import Financial Libraries
#import zipline
#import pyfolio as pf
#import alphalens
#import empyrical
#import mlfinlab

# Import Visualization Libraries
import seaborn as sns; sns.set()
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from matplotlib.ticker import FuncFormatter
from mpl_toolkits.mplot3d import Axes3D
import matplotlib.ticker as ticker
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.mlab as mlab
import seaborn as sns; sns.set()
plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight')

# Import Scikit-Learn Libraries
from sklearn.feature_extraction.text import CountVectorizer, TfidfVectorizer
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, f1_score, plot_confusion_matrix
from sklearn.preprocessing import normalize
from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline, FeatureUnion
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier, AdaBoostClassifier, GradientBoostingClassifier, ExtraTreesClassifier, VotingClassifier
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression, LogisticRegression, Perceptron, SGDClassifier
from sklearn.discriminant_analysis import LinearDiscriminantAnalysis
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier, KernelDensity
from sklearn.naive_bayes import GaussianNB
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
from sklearn.neural_network import MLPClassifier
from sklearn.svm import SVC, LinearSVC
from sklearn import model_selection
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV, cross_val_score, cross_validate, StratifiedKFold, learning_curve, RandomizedSearchCV, RepeatedStratifiedKFold
from sklearn.impute import SimpleImputer
import scikitplot as skplt

# Import nltk Libraries
import nltk
from nltk.corpus import stopwords
from nltk.util import ngrams
from nltk.tokenize import word_tokenize, sent_tokenize

# Import Pytorch Libraries
import torch
from torch import nn, optim
import torch.nn.functional as F
from torch.utils.data import (DataLoader, RandomSampler, SequentialSampler, TensorDataset)
from torch.autograd import Variable
from torch.optim import Adam, AdamW

# Import XGBoost Libraries
import xgboost as xgb

# Import Utilities
import pandas_datareader.data as web
import pickle
import urllib.request
import zipfile

```

#### Settings


```
# General:
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
%matplotlib inline
get_ipython().run_line_magic('matplotlib', 'inline')

# Get Execution Time on Every Cell:
%load_ext autotime

# Other:
#%load_ext zipline
#%reload_ext zipline
#!zipline ingest

```


```
# Set display preference (Optional)
plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = (18,9)
plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight')

# Set Seaborn Style
#sns.set(style='white', context='notebook', palette='deep')

# Set Pandas output options
pd.options.display.max_rows = 30
pd.options.display.max_seq_items = 100
pd.set_option('display.max_colwidth', 100)
```


```
sys.path.append('/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/packages/alphalens/')
sys.path.append('/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/packages/empyrical/')
sys.path.append('/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/packages/mlfinlab/')
sys.path.append('/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/packages/pyfolio/')
sys.path.append('/content/drive/MyDrive/Colab Notebooks/global_macro/src/packages/zipline/')
path = pd.DataFrame(sys.path)
path.T

```


```
# Finalize nltk setup:
nltk.download('stopwords')
nltk.download('punkt')
nltk.download('wordnet')

stop = set(stopwords.words('english'))

# Test & Activate/Deactivate Pretty printing
pprint.pprint(sys.path)
%pprint

```


```
## Use TPU
#if IN_COLAB:
#  assert os.environ['COLAB_TPU_ADDR'], 'Select TPU: Runtime > Change runtime type > Hardware accelerator'
#  VERSION = '20200220'
#  !curl https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pytorch/xla/master/contrib/scripts/env-setup.py -o pytorch-xla-env-setup.py
#  !python pytorch-xla-env-setup.py --version $VERSION
```


```
## Use GPU Runtime:
#if IN_COLAB:
#  if torch.cuda.is_available():
#    torch.cuda.get_device_name(0)
#    gpu_info = !nvidia-smi
#    gpu_info = '\n'.join(gpu_info)
#    print(gpu_info)
#  else:
#    print('Select the Runtime > Change runtime type menu to enable a GPU accelerator, and then re-execute this cell.')
#    #os.kill(os.getpid(), 9)  

```


```
# Set logger
logger = logging.getLogger('mylogger')
logger.setLevel(logging.DEBUG)
timestamp = time.strftime('%Y.%m.%d_%H.%M.%S', time.localtime())
fh = logging.FileHandler('log_model.txt')
fh.setLevel(logging.DEBUG)
ch = logging.StreamHandler()
ch.setLevel(logging.DEBUG)
formatter = logging.Formatter('[%(asctime)s][%(levelname)s] ## %(message)s')
fh.setFormatter(formatter)
ch.setFormatter(formatter)
logger.addHandler(fh)
logger.addHandler(ch)
```


```
# Set Random Seed
random.seed(42)
np.random.seed(42)
torch.manual_seed(42)
torch.cuda.manual_seed(42)
rand_seed = 42
```


```
#@title Default Graph Dimensions
fig_width = 20 #@param {type:"number"}
fig_height = 10 #@param {type:"number"}

```

## **Definitions**

### General Utilities


```
# Generate random weights that sum up to 1:
def weights_randn(n):
    k = np.random.rand(n)
    return k / sum(k)

def check_array(arr):
    if len(np.array(arr).shape)==1:
        days = len(np.array(arr))
        cols = 1
    elif len(np.array(arr).shape)==2:
        days = np.array(arr).shape[0]
        cols = np.array(arr).shape[1]
    else:
        raise TypeError('Input should be 1-D np.array or pd.Series or a 2-D np.array.')
    return cols,days

def var_w(rho, lamb, Q, wp, beta_im_ ,beta_T):
  def constrain1(w):
    return np.dot(beta_im_,w)-beta_T

  def constrain2(w):
    return np.sum(w)-1

  cons = [{'type':'eq', 'fun': constrain1},
          {'type':'eq', 'fun': constrain2}]
  bnds = scipy.optimize.Bounds(-2.0, 2.0, keep_feasible = True)

  def f(w):
    return -rho.dot(w) + lamb*(w-wp).dot(Q.dot(w-wp))

  w0 = np.array([1/12]*12)
  res = minimize(f, w0, method='SLSQP', bounds=bnds, constraints=cons,
                  tol=1e-9)
  return res.x
  
```

### Data Retrieval/Processing


```
# Save data:
if IN_COLAB:
  def save_data(df, file_name, dir_name=data_dir, index_csv=True):
    if not os.path.exists(dir_name):
      os.mkdir(dir_name)
    # Save results to a picke file
    file = open(dir_name + file_name + '.pickle', 'wb')
    pickle.dump(df, file)
    file.close()
    print('Successfully saved {}.pickle. in {}'.format(file_name, dir_name + file_name + '.pickle'))
    # Save results to a csv file
    df.to_csv(dir_name + file_name + '.csv', index=index_csv)
    print('Successfully saved {}.csv. in {}'.format(file_name, dir_name + file_name + '.csv'))

else:
  def save_data(df, file_name, dir_name=data_dir, index_csv=True):
    # Save results to a .picke file
    file = open(dir_name + file_name + '.pickle', 'wb')
    pickle.dump(df, file)
    file.close()
    print('Successfully saved {}.pickle. in {}'.format(file_name, dir_name + file_name + '.pickle'))
    # Save results to a .csv file
    df.to_csv(dir_name + file_name + '.csv', index=index_csv)
    print('Successfully saved {}.csv. in {}'.format(file_name, dir_name + file_name + '.csv'))

# Download and prepare Fama French data:
def fama_french(frequency, no_factors):
  if frequency == 'annual':
    date_format = '  %Y'
    if no_factors == 3:
      ff_url = 'https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_Factors_CSV.zip'
      filename = 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors'
    elif no_factors == 5:
      ff_url = 'https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3_CSV.zip'
      filename = 'F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3'
    else:
      print('Please choose 3 or 5 for the 3- and 5-Factor Model respectively.')
  elif frequency == 'monthly':
    date_format = '%Y%m'
    if no_factors == 3:
      ff_url = 'https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_Factors_CSV.zip'
      filename = 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors'
    elif no_factors == 5:
      ff_url = 'https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3_CSV.zip'
      filename = 'F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3'
    else:
      print('Please choose 3 or 5 for the 3- and 5-Factor Model respectively.')
  elif frequency == 'weekly':
    date_format = '%Y%m%d'
    if no_factors == 3:
      ff_url = 'https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_Factors_weekly_CSV.zip'
      filename = 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors_weekly'
    elif no_factors == 5:
      print ('No weekly data available for the 5-Factor Model.')
    else:
      print('Please choose 3 or 5 for the 3- and 5-Factor Model respectively.')        
  elif frequency == 'daily':
    date_format = '%Y%m%d'
    if no_factors == 3:
      ff_url = 'https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_Factors_daily_CSV.zip'
      filename = 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors_daily'
    elif no_factors == 5:
      ff_url = 'https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3_daily_CSV.zip'
      filename = 'F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3_daily'
    else:
      print('Please choose 3 or 5 for the 3- and 5-Factor Model respectively.')
  else:
    print('Please choose between annual, monthly, weekly or daily for the frequency.')
  
  urllib.request.urlretrieve(ff_url, data_dir + filename + '.zip')
  zip = zipfile.ZipFile(data_dir + filename + '.zip', 'r')
  with zipfile.ZipFile(data_dir + filename + '.zip', 'r') as zip_ref:
    zip_ref.extractall(data_dir)
    zip.close()

  try:
    ff_factors = pd.read_csv(data_dir + filename + '.CSV', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
  except ValueError:
    ff_factors = pd.read_csv(data_dir + filename + '.CSV', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
  ff_row = ff_factors.isnull().any(1).nonzero()[0][0]
  try:
    ff_factors = pd.read_csv(data_dir + filename + '.CSV', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
  except ValueError:
    ff_factors = pd.read_csv(data_dir + filename + '.csv', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
  ff_factors = ff_factors.iloc[:-1]
  if frequency == 'annual':
    ff_factors = ff_factors.iloc[1134:,]
  elif frequency == 'monthly':
    ff_factors = ff_factors.iloc[0:1131,]
  else:
    pass
  ff_factors = ff_factors.dropna()
  ff_factors.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_factors.index, format=date_format)
  ff_factors.index = ff_factors.index + pd.offsets.MonthEnd()
  return ff_factors

```

### Risk/Performance Metrics


```

def PnL(arr,P = 1000000):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    ret = []
    s = (np.array([1.0 for _ in range(cols)]))*P
    for i in range(days):
        s += data[i,:]*s
        ret.append(s.copy())
    return np.array(ret)

def geom_mean(arr):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    return np.power(np.prod(1+data,axis=0),1/days)-1

def MaxDrawdown(arr, n=10):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    D_ = []
    d_ = []
    for day in range(n,days):
        returns = pd.DataFrame(1+data[(day-n):day,:]).cumprod(axis = 0)
        D = returns.cummax(axis=0)-returns
        d = np.array(D)/(np.array(D+returns))
        D_.append(np.max(np.array(D),axis=0))
        d_.append(np.max(np.array(d),axis = 0))
    return np.max(np.array(D_),axis=0),np.max(np.array(d_),axis=0)

def Volatility(arr,yearly=False):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    if yearly:
        return np.sqrt(np.var(data,axis=0))
    else:
        return np.sqrt((252/days)*np.sum((data-np.mean(data,axis=0))**2,axis=0))

def Sharpe(arr,rf,yearly = False):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    c,row = check_array(rf)
    if not days == row:
        raise RuntimeError('length of columns of inputs do not match (%s, %s).'% (days,row))
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    r = np.array(rf).reshape(days,1)*250
    ER = np.power(np.product(1+data,axis=0),250/days)-np.mean(r,axis=0)-1
    return ER/Volatility(data)

def Kurt(arr):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    return ss.kurtosis(data,axis=0)

def Skew(arr):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    return ss.skew(data,axis=0)

def VaR(arr,q):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    tmp = np.sort(data,axis=0)
    n = int(np.around((1-q)*days))
    return -tmp[max(0,n-1),:]

def CVaR(arr,q):
    cols,days = check_array(arr)
    data = np.array(arr).reshape(days, cols)
    tmp = np.sort(data,axis=0)
    # print(tmp)
    n = int(np.around((1 - q) * days))
    return np.mean(-tmp[0:max(0, n - 1),:],axis=0)

def Summary(arr,RF, q=0.99):
    result = arr
    cols,days = check_array(result)
    print('Last PnL after %s: ' % days,PnL(result)[-1,:])
    # Geometric mean
    print('Geometric mean', geom_mean(result))
    # min
    print('Daily min', np.min(result, axis=0))
    # max drawdown
    print('max drawdown: ', MaxDrawdown(result))
    # Vol
    print('Volatility', Volatility(result))
    print('Sharp ratio: ', Sharpe(result, RF))
    print('Mean sharp: ', np.mean(Sharpe(result, RF), axis=0))
    print('Kurt: ', Kurt(result))
    print('Skewness: ', Skew(result))
    print('%s VaR %s days: ' % (q,days), VaR(result,q))
    print('%s CVaR %s days: ' % (q, days), CVaR(result, q))

```

### Backtesting


```
def backtesting(ret_etf, ff_factors, return_period, variance_period, lamb, beta_tm):
  port_returns = []
  omegas = []
  omega_p = np.array([1/12] *12)
  look_back =  max(return_period,
                   variance_period)
  next_chang_date = look_back - 1
  for i in range(len(ret_etf)):
    omegas.append(omega_p)
    today_return = np.asarray(ret_etf.iloc[i,:])
    pr = np.dot(omega_p,today_return)
    port_returns.append(pr)
    if i == next_chang_date:
      omega_p = omega(
          ret_r = ret_etf.iloc[i+1-return_period:i+1],        
          factor_r =ff_factors.iloc[i+1-return_period:i+1],
          return_v = ret_etf.iloc[i+1-variance_period:i+1],
          factor_v = ff_factors.iloc[i+1-variance_period:i+1],
          lamb_ = lamb,
          beta_tm_ = beta_tm,
          wp_ = omega_p)
      next_chang_date += 5

    else:
        continue

  return port_returns,omegas

```

### Analytics


```
def analytics(X,rf,confidenceLevel,position):
  cum_ret_day=np.cumprod((X+1))
  cum_ret_annual = (np.power(cum_ret_day.iloc[-1,0],1/len(X)))**250
  arith_mean_ret_annual=np.mean(X)*250
  geom_mean_ret_annual=(np.power(cum_ret_day.iloc[-1,0],1/len(X))-1)*250
  min_ret_annual = np.min(X)*250
  p_v =np.cumprod((X+1))*100
  p_v_extend = pd.DataFrame(np.append([p_v.iloc[0,0]]*9,p_v))
  rolling_window_max = p_v_extend.rolling(window=10).max()
  ten_day_drawdown = float(np.min(p_v_extend/rolling_window_max-1)[0])
  vol_annual=np.std(X)*np.sqrt(250)
  ratio_annual=(arith_mean_ret_annual-rf)/vol_annual
  kurt_annual=kurtosis(X*250)
  skew_annual=skew(X*250)
  kurt_day=kurtosis(X)
  skew_day=skew(X)
  z=norm.ppf(1-confidenceLevel)
  t=z+((1/6)*(z**2-1)*skew_day)+((1/24)*(z**3-3*z))*kurt_day-((1/36)*(2*z**3-5*z)*(skew_day**2))
  mVaR= position*(np.mean(X)+t*np.std(X))*np.sqrt(250)
  alpha=norm.ppf(1-confidenceLevel, np.mean(X), np.std(X))
  VaR= position*(alpha)
  VaR_annual=VaR*np.sqrt(250)
  CVaR = position*np.mean(X[X<=np.quantile(X,1-confidenceLevel)])[0]*np.sqrt(250)
  df=pd.DataFrame([
                   cum_ret_annual,
                   arith_mean_ret_annual[0],
                   geom_mean_ret_annual,min_ret_annual[0],
                   ten_day_drawdown,vol_annual[0],
                   ratio_annual[0],
                   kurt_annual[0],
                   skew_annual[0],
                   mVaR[0],
                   VaR[0],
                   VaR_annual[0],
                   CVaR],
                  index=['Cumulative Returns (Annual)',
                         'Arithmetic Mean Returns (Annual)',
                         'Geometric Mean Returns (Annual)',
                         'Minimum Return (Annual)',
                         'Max 10-day Drawdown',
                         'Volatility',
                         'Sharpe Ratio (Annual)',
                         'Kurtosis (Annual)',
                         'Skew (Annual)',
                         'mVaR (Annual)',
                         'VaR (Daily)',
                         'VaR (Annual)',
                         'CVaR (Annual)'],
                  columns=['result'])
  return df

```


```
def omega(ret_r, factor_r, return_v, factor_v, lamb_, beta_tm_, wp_):
  rf = np.asarray(factor_r['RF'])
  rM_rf = np.asarray(factor_r['Mkt-RF'])
  rSMB = np.asarray(factor_r['SMB'])
  rHML = np.asarray(factor_r['HML'])
  SPY = np.asarray(ret_r['SPY'])
  ri = np.asarray(ret_r)
  var_market = np.var(SPY,ddof=1)
  beta_im = np.array([0.0]*12)
  for i in range (12):
    temp = np.cov(ri[:,i],SPY,ddof=1)
    beta_im[i] = temp[0,1] / var_market
  Ri = ri - rf.reshape(-1,1)
  f = np.array([rM_rf, rSMB, rHML])
  F = f.T
  lr = LinearRegression().fit(F, Ri)
  alpha = lr.intercept_
  B = lr.coef_
  ft = f[:,-1]
  rho_r = alpha + B.dot(ft) + rf[-1]

  rf_v = np.asarray(factor_v['RF'])
  rM_rf_v = np.asarray(factor_v['Mkt-RF'])
  rSMB_v = np.asarray(factor_v['SMB'])
  rHML_v = np.asarray(factor_v['HML'])
  SPY_v = np.asarray(return_v['SPY'])
  ri_v = np.asarray(return_v)
  var_market_v = np.var(SPY_v,ddof=1)
  beta_im_v = np.array([0.0]*12)
  for i in range (12):
    temp_v = np.cov(ri_v[:,i],SPY_v,ddof=1)
    beta_im_v[i] = temp_v[0,1] / var_market_v
  Ri_v = ri_v - rf_v.reshape(-1,1)
  f_v = np.array([rM_rf_v, rSMB_v, rHML_v])
  F_v = f_v.T
  lr_v = LinearRegression().fit(F_v, Ri_v)
  alpha_v = lr_v.intercept_
  B_v = lr_v.coef_
  eph_v = Ri_v.T - (alpha_v.reshape(-1,1) + B_v.dot(f_v))
  eph2_v = np.cov(eph_v,ddof=1)
  eph2_diag_v = np.diag(eph2_v)
  D_v = np.diag(eph2_diag_v)
  omega_f_v = np.cov(f_v,ddof=1)
  cov_Rt_v = B_v.dot(omega_f_v).dot(B_v.T) + D_v
  result = var_w(rho_r, lamb_, cov_Rt_v, wp_, beta_im_v ,beta_tm_)
  return result

```

## **Data Processing**

### Containers


```
# Data containers:
p_u = pd.DataFrame()
p_aapl = pd.DataFrame()
p_spy = pd.DataFrame()

# Ticker containers:
u_tix = ['FXE', 'EWJ', 'GLD', 'QQQ', 'SPY', 'SHV', 'GAF', 'DBA', 'USO', 'XBI', 'ILF', 'EPP', 'FEZ']
aapl_tix = ['AAPL']
spy_tix = ['SPY']

```

### Load Data

#### Fama French Factors

A three-factor model proposed by Fama and French(1993), includes not only market excess return, but a capitalization size and book to market ratio will also be added in as influencing factors.

The random return of a given security is given by the formulas (equivalent),

\begin{equation}
\boxed{r = r_{f}+\beta_{1}(r_{m}-r_{f})+\beta{2}(SMB)+\beta_{3}(HML)+\epsilon}
\end{equation}


\begin{equation}
\boxed{R_{i}-r_{f}=\alpha_{i}+\beta{i}^{MKT}(R_{M}-r_{f})+\beta_{i}^{SMB}R_{SMB}+\beta_{i}^{HML}R_{HML}}
\end{equation}


- rSMB represents small size variables minus big one
- rHML represents high minus low in book value to equity to book value to the market.


```
# Using definition above:
# Fama/French 3-Factor Model:
'''
ff_3_daily = fama_french('daily', 3)
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Daily Data\n' + str(ff_3_daily.tail(10)))

ff_3_weekly = fama_french('weekly', 3)
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Weekly Data\n' + str(ff_3_weekly.tail(10)))

ff_3_monthly = fama_french('monthly',3)
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Monthly Data\n' + str(ff_3_monthly.tail(10)))

ff_3_annual = fama_french('annual', 3)
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Annual Data\n' + str(ff_3_annual.tail(10)))
'''

```


```
# Manual loading:
# Fama/French 3-Factor Model:
ff_3_annual = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors.CSV', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
ff_3_annual = ff_3_annual.iloc[:-1]
ff_3_annual = ff_3_annual.iloc[1134:,]
ff_3_annual.index = ff_3_annual.index.map(lambda h: '  '.join(h).replace(' ', ''))
ff_3_annual.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_3_annual.index, format='%Y')
ff_3_annual = ff_3_annual.dropna()
#ff_3_annual = ff_3_annual/100
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Annual Data\n' + str(ff_3_annual.head(10)))

ff_3_monthly = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors.CSV', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
ff_3_monthly = ff_3_monthly.iloc[0:1131,]
ff_3_monthly = ff_3_monthly.dropna()
ff_3_monthly.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_3_monthly.index, format= '%Y%m')
#ff_3_monthly = ff_3_monthly/100
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Monthly Data\n' + str(ff_3_monthly.head(10)))

ff_3_weekly = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors_weekly.csv', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
ff_3_weekly = ff_3_weekly.dropna()
ff_3_weekly.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_3_weekly.index, format= '%Y%m%d')
ff_3_weekly = ff_3_weekly/100
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Weekly Data\n' + str(ff_3_weekly.head(10)) + '\n')

ff_3_daily = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'F-F_Research_Data_Factors_daily.csv', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
ff_3_daily = ff_3_daily.dropna()
ff_3_daily.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_3_daily.index, format= '%Y%m%d')
ff_3_daily = ff_3_daily/100
print('Fama/French 3-Factor Model Daily Data\n' + str(ff_3_daily.head(10)) + '\n')

# Fama/French 5-Factor Model:
ff_5_annual = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3.csv', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
ff_5_annual = ff_5_annual.iloc[690:,]
ff_5_annual.index = ff_5_annual.index.map(lambda h: '  '.join(h).replace(' ', ''))
ff_5_annual.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_5_annual.index, format='%Y')
ff_5_annual = ff_5_annual.dropna()
#ff_5_annual = ff_5_annual/100
print('Fama/French 5-Factor Model Annual Data\n' + str(ff_5_annual.head(10)) + '\n')

ff_5_monthly = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3.csv', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
ff_5_monthly = ff_5_monthly.iloc[:688,]
ff_5_monthly = ff_5_monthly.dropna()
ff_5_monthly.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_5_monthly.index, format='%Y%m')
#ff_5_monthly = ff_5_monthly/100
print('Fama/French 5-Factor Model Monthly Data\n' + str(ff_5_monthly.tail(10)) + '\n')

ff_5_daily = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'F-F_Research_Data_5_Factors_2x3_daily.csv', skiprows = 3, index_col = 0)
ff_5_daily = ff_5_daily.dropna()
ff_5_daily.index = pd.to_datetime(ff_5_daily.index, format='%Y%m%d')
ff_5_daily = ff_5_daily/100
print('Fama/French 5-Factor Model Daily Data\n' + str(ff_5_daily.head(10)) + '\n')

```


```
# Last date of time series data must match that of the Fama/French data:
last_datapoint = str(ff_3_daily.index[-1].strftime('%m/%d/%Y'))
print('Last Date for Fama/French data: ' + last_datapoint)

```

#### Historical Time Series

The following ETFs represent the investment Universe of our portfolios. They range from the S&P 500 to ETFs representing all continents such as Europe, Asia and Africa and asset types such as bonds, stocks, and commodities.

1. CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
2. iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ)
3. SPDR GOLD Trust (GLD)
4. Powershares NASDAQ-100 Trust (QQQ)
5. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) **(THE MARKET PORTFOLIO S&P 500 IS THE BENCHMARK)**
6. iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond (SHV)
7. PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)
8. United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
9. SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI)
10. iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF)
11. iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund (EPP)
12. SPDR DJ Euro Stoxx 50 (FEZ)

From this universe, we have created portfolios by utilizing the 3-factor Fama-French model. The investment portfolio that we created is compared to the following benchmark portfolios:

1.	The Market Portfolio (S&P 500) 

The dataset includes daily price data between March 1st, 2007 to October 31th, 2020. We choose this investment horizon to match the Fama-French Factor data available.

We have used three different look-back periods, which we have defined as: A. Short Term – 60 Days B. Medium Term – 120 Days C. Long Term – 200 Days To calculate the risk-return parameters of then portfolio we have used the target Beta as -1, -0.5, 0, 0.5, 1 and 1.5. The rebalance period is kept as one week as specified in the project.


```
# Retrieve ETF Data:
start_date = '07/24/2007'
end_date = '10/30/2020'

for i in u_tix:
    tmp = web.DataReader(i, 'yahoo', start_date, end_date)
    p_u[i] = tmp['Adj Close']
for i in aapl_tix:
    tmp = web.DataReader(i, 'yahoo', start_date, end_date)
    p_aapl[i] = tmp['Adj Close']
for i in spy_tix:
    tmp = web.DataReader(i, 'yahoo', start_date, end_date)
    p_spy[i] = tmp['Adj Close']

```

### Preprocess Data


```
# Clean data:
p_u.isnull().sum().sum()
p_aapl.isnull().sum().sum()
p_spy.isnull().sum().sum()

p_u = p_u.dropna()
p_aapl = p_aapl.dropna()
p_spy = p_spy.dropna()

```


```
# Sample data:
sys.stdout.write('\nInvestment Universe U Time Series ({} - {}):\n'.format(start_date, end_date) + str(p_u.tail(10)))
print('\n' + str(p_u.shape))
sys.stdout.write('\nAAPL Time Series ({} - {}):\n'.format(start_date, end_date) + str(p_aapl.head(10)))
print('\n' + str(p_aapl.shape))
sys.stdout.write('\nSPY Time Series ({} - {}):\n'.format(start_date, end_date) + str(p_spy.head(10)))
print('\n' + str(p_spy.shape))

```

### Transform Data


```
# Useful variables:
w = weights_randn(len(u_tix))
print('Random weights:\n' + str(w))
days = 252

```


```
# ETF Returns:
R_u = p_u.pct_change()
R_u = R_u.dropna()
print('\nETF Portfolio Prices:\n' + str(R_u.head(10)))
rho_u = np.mean(R_u, axis=0)
print('\nETF Portfolio Mean Returns:\n' + str(rho_u))

```


```
# SPY Returns:
R_spy = p_spy.pct_change()
R_spy = R_spy.dropna()
print('\nSPY Prices:\n' + str(R_spy.head(10)))
rho_spy = np.mean(R_spy, axis=0)
print('\nSPY Mean Return:\n' + str(rho_spy))

```

### Save Data


```
# Securities:
save_data(p_u, 'p_u')
save_data(p_aapl, 'p_aapl')
save_data(p_spy, 'p_spy')
save_data(R_spy,'R_spy')
save_data(R_u,'R_u')

# Fama-French Processed Datasets (Archive):
save_data(ff_3_annual, 'ff_3_annual')
save_data(ff_5_annual, 'ff_5_annual')
save_data(ff_3_monthly, 'ff_3_monthly')
save_data(ff_5_monthly, 'ff_5_monthly')
save_data(ff_3_weekly, 'ff_3_weekly')
save_data(ff_3_daily, 'ff_3_daily')
save_data(ff_5_daily, 'ff_5_daily')

```

### Visualize Data


```
# Visualize ETF Price Time Series:
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(fig_width, fig_height))
ts_u = fig.add_subplot(111)
ts_u.plot(R_u['FXE'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='FXE')
ts_u.plot(R_u['EWJ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='EWJ')
ts_u.plot(R_u['GLD'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='GLD')
ts_u.plot(R_u['QQQ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='QQQ')
ts_u.plot(R_u['SPY'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='SPY')
ts_u.plot(R_u['SHV'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='SHV')
ts_u.plot(R_u['DBA'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='DBA')
ts_u.plot(R_u['USO'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='USO')
ts_u.plot(R_u['XBI'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='XBI')
ts_u.plot(R_u['ILF'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='ILF')
ts_u.plot(R_u['EPP'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='EPP')
ts_u.plot(R_u['FEZ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='FEZ')
ts_u.set_xlabel('Year', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
ts_u.set_ylabel('Price', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
ts_u.set_title('Historical Time Series of Portfolio Securities', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ts_u.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=10)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + 'rho_u.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```


```
# Visualize ETF Price Time Series:
R_u = p_u
returns_u, axs = plt.subplots(4,3,figsize=(fig_width, fig_height))
returns_u.suptitle('Historical Time Series of Portfolio Securities', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
axs[0,0].plot(R_u['FXE'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,0].set_title('FXE')
axs[0,1].plot(R_u['EWJ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,1].set_title('EWJ')
axs[0,2].plot(R_u['GLD'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,2].set_title('GLD')
axs[1,0].plot(R_u['QQQ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,0].set_title('QQQ')
axs[1,1].plot(R_u['SPY'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,1].set_title('SPY')
axs[1,2].plot(R_u['SHV'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,2].set_title('SHV')
axs[2,0].plot(R_u['DBA'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,0].set_title('DBA')
axs[2,1].plot(R_u['USO'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,1].set_title('USO')
axs[2,2].plot(R_u['XBI'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,2].set_title('XBI')
axs[3,0].plot(R_u['ILF'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,0].set_title('ILF')
axs[3,1].plot(R_u['EPP'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,1].set_title('EPP')
axs[3,2].plot(R_u['FEZ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,2].set_title('FEZ')
plt.tight_layout()
returns_u.subplots_adjust(top=0.9)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + 'prices_u_raw.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```


```
# Visualize ETF Log-Returns:
R_spy = np.log(p_spy / p_spy.shift(1))
returns_u, axs = plt.subplots(4,3,figsize=(fig_width, fig_height))
returns_u.suptitle('Log-Returns of Portfolio Securities', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
axs[0,0].plot(R_u['FXE'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,0].set_title('FXE')
axs[0,1].plot(R_u['EWJ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,1].set_title('EWJ')
axs[0,2].plot(R_u['GLD'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,2].set_title('GLD')
axs[1,0].plot(R_u['QQQ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,0].set_title('QQQ')
axs[1,1].plot(R_u['SPY'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,1].set_title('SPY')
axs[1,2].plot(R_u['SHV'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,2].set_title('SHV')
axs[2,0].plot(R_u['DBA'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,0].set_title('DBA')
axs[2,1].plot(R_u['USO'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,1].set_title('USO')
axs[2,2].plot(R_u['XBI'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,2].set_title('XBI')
axs[3,0].plot(R_u['ILF'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,0].set_title('ILF')
axs[3,1].plot(R_u['EPP'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,1].set_title('EPP')
axs[3,2].plot(R_u['FEZ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,2].set_title('FEZ')
plt.tight_layout()
returns_u.subplots_adjust(top=0.9)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + 'returns_u_log.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

## **Analysis**

### Theory

#### Optimization Problem:

The strategy aims to maximize return with a certain Target Beta under constraints.

It is defined as,

\begin{cases}
\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}\rho^{T}\omega-\lambda(\omega-\omega_{p})^{T}\Sigma(\omega-\omega_{p})\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}=\beta_{T}^{m}\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \omega_{i}=1, -2\leq\omega_{i}\leq2
\end{cases}

$\Sigma$ is the the covariance matrix between the securities returns (computed from
the Factor Model), $\omega_{p}$ is the composition of a reference Portfolio (the previous Portfolio when rebalancing the portfolio and $\omega_{p}$ has all its components equal to $1/n$ for the first allocation) and $\lambda$ is a small regularization parameter to limit the turnover;

$\beta_{i}^{m}=\frac{cov(r_{i},r_{M}}{\sigma^{2}(r_{M})}$ is the Beta of security $S_{i}$ as defined in the CAPM Model so that $\beta_{P}^{m}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}\beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}$ is the Beta of the Portfolio;

$\beta_{T}^{m}$ is the Portfolio's Target Beta, for example $\beta_{T}^{m}=-1$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=-0.5$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=0$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=0.5$, $\beta_{T}^{m}=1.5$.

#### Equivalent Optimization Problem:

We can reformulate the optimization problem above to make the programming process more straightforward:

$(\omega-\omega_{p})^{T}\Sigma(\omega-\omega_{p})\rightarrow$

$=(\omega-\omega_{p})^{T}\Sigma\omega-(\omega-\omega_{p} )^{T}\Sigma\omega_{p}$

$=\omega^{T} \Sigma\omega-2(\omega^{T} \Sigma\omega_{p})+\omega_{p}^{T}\Sigma \omega_{p}$

We simplify,
- $d=\rho-2\lambda\Sigma\omega_{p}$
- $P=\lambda\Sigma$

Finally,

$\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}(\rho-2\lambda\Sigma\omega_{p} )^{T} \omega-\lambda\omega^{T}\Sigma\omega+\lambda\omega_{p}^{T}\Sigma\omega_{p}=\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}d^{T}\omega-\omega^{T}P\omega$


---

The following formulation is equivalent,

\begin{cases}
\max\limits_{{\omega ∈ ℝ^{n}}}d^{T}\omega-\omega^{T}P\omega\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}=\beta_{T}^{m}\\
\sum_{i=1}^{n} \omega_{i}=1, -2\leq\omega_{i}\leq2
\end{cases}
- $\Sigma$ is the the covariance matrix between the returns of the portfolio assets;
- $\omega_{p}$ is the composition of a reference Portfolio:
  - When rebalancing the portfolio, $\omega_{p}$ is the previous portfolio
  - $\omega_{p}$ has all its components equal to $1/n$ for the first allocation
- $\lambda$ is a regularization parameter to limit the turnover
- $\beta_{i}^{m}=\frac{cov(r_{i},r_{M}}{\sigma^{2}(r_{M})}$ is the Beta of security $S_{i}$ as defined in the CAPM Model s.t. $\beta_{P}^{m}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}\beta_{i}^{m}\omega_{i}$ is the portfolio Beta
- $\beta_{T}^{m}$ is the Portfolio's Target Beta.

### Algebra


```
# Create hybrid dataset:
R_u_ff = pd.merge(R_u,ff_3_daily,how='inner',left_index=True,right_index=True)
R_spy_ff = pd.merge(R_spy,ff_3_daily,how='inner',left_index=True,right_index=True)

# Rename Market Excess Column Index:
R_u_ff.rename(columns={'Mkt-RF':'Mkt_RF'}, inplace=True)
R_u_ff['Portfolio_Excess'] = R_u_ff.sum(axis=1) - R_u_ff['RF']
print(R_u_ff.head(10))

# Quick save:
save_data(R_u_ff, 'R_u_ff')
save_data(R_spy_ff, 'R_spy_ff')

```


```
# Estimate Security Betas:
betas = []
for i in range(0,len(u_tix)):
  reg_mult = smf.formula.ols(formula = 'R_u_ff.iloc[:, i] - RF ~ Mkt_RF - RF + SMB + HML', data = R_u_ff).fit()
  betas.append(list(reg_mult.params))

betas = pd.DataFrame(betas, index=u_tix)
betas.columns = ['Intercept', 'Mkt_RF', 'SMB', 'HML']
print(betas)

# Quick save:
save_data(betas, 'betas')

```


```
# Calculate Annualized Average Expected Returns under FF 3-Factor Model:
rho_daily = []

for i in range(0,len(u_tix)):
  step_0 = (R_spy_ff.sum(axis=1) - R_spy_ff['RF']).mul((betas.iloc[i,0] + betas.iloc[i,1]))
  step_1 = R_spy_ff['SMB'].mul(betas.iloc[i,2])
  step_2 = R_spy_ff['HML'].mul(betas.iloc[i,3])
  step_4 = step_0 + step_1 + step_2
  rho_daily.append(step_4)
rho_daily = pd.DataFrame(rho_daily)
rho_daily = rho_daily.T
rho_daily.columns = u_tix
print('Daily Average Expected Returns:\n' + str(rho_daily.head(10)))

rho_annual = rho_daily * 252
print('Annualized Average Expected Returns:\n' + str(rho_annual.head(10)))

# Quick Save:
save_data(rho_daily, 'rho_daily')
save_data(rho_annual, 'rho_annual')

```


```
# Calculate other variables:
ones = np.ones(len(u_tix))
mu_u = np.mean(rho_annual, axis=0)
print('Mean Average Expected Returns (Annual): \n' + str(mu_u))
mu_u_daily = np.mean(rho_daily, axis=0)
print('\nMean Average Expected Returns (Daily): \n' + str(mu_u_daily))
Sigma_u = np.cov(rho_annual, rowvar=False)
print('\nCovariance Matrix: \n' + str(Sigma_u))

P = 2 * (Sigma_u + 0.01 * np.identity(len(mu_u)))
#print('\nP Matrix: \n' + str(P))
omega_u = np.repeat(1/len(mu_u), len(mu_u))
A_eq = np.repeat(1,len(mu_u))
A_mat = pd.DataFrame(np.identity(len(mu_u))).merge(pd.DataFrame(-np.identity(len(mu_u))))

```

### Visualizations


```
# Visualize Daily Average Expected Returns:
r = np.transpose(np.linspace(0, 1, len(rho_annual)))
exp_returns_day, axs = plt.subplots(4,3,figsize=(fig_width, fig_height))
exp_returns_day.suptitle('Daily Average Expected Returns of Portfolio Securities', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
axs[0,0].plot(rho_daily['FXE'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,0].set_title('FXE')
axs[0,1].plot(rho_daily['EWJ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,1].set_title('EWJ')
axs[0,2].plot(rho_daily['GLD'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,2].set_title('GLD')
axs[1,0].plot(rho_daily['QQQ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,0].set_title('QQQ')
axs[1,1].plot(rho_daily['SPY'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,1].set_title('SPY')
axs[1,2].plot(rho_daily['SHV'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,2].set_title('SHV')
axs[2,0].plot(rho_daily['DBA'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,0].set_title('DBA')
axs[2,1].plot(rho_daily['USO'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,1].set_title('USO')
axs[2,2].plot(rho_daily['XBI'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,2].set_title('XBI')
axs[3,0].plot(rho_daily['ILF'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,0].set_title('ILF')
axs[3,1].plot(rho_daily['EPP'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,1].set_title('EPP')
axs[3,2].plot(rho_daily['FEZ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,2].set_title('FEZ')
plt.tight_layout()
exp_returns_day.subplots_adjust(top=0.9)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + 'exp_returns_daily.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```


```
# Visualize Annualized Average Expected Returns:
r = np.transpose(np.linspace(0, 1, len(rho_annual)))
exp_returns_yr, axs = plt.subplots(4,3,figsize=(fig_width, fig_height))
exp_returns_yr.suptitle('Annualized Average Expected Returns of Portfolio Securities', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
axs[0,0].plot(r,rho_annual['FXE'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,0].set_title('FXE')
axs[0,1].plot(r,rho_annual['EWJ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,1].set_title('EWJ')
axs[0,2].plot(r,rho_annual['GLD'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[0,2].set_title('GLD')
axs[1,0].plot(r,rho_annual['QQQ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,0].set_title('QQQ')
axs[1,1].plot(r,rho_annual['SPY'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,1].set_title('SPY')
axs[1,2].plot(r,rho_annual['SHV'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[1,2].set_title('SHV')
axs[2,0].plot(r,rho_annual['DBA'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,0].set_title('DBA')
axs[2,1].plot(r,rho_annual['USO'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,1].set_title('USO')
axs[2,2].plot(r,rho_annual['XBI'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[2,2].set_title('XBI')
axs[3,0].plot(r,rho_annual['ILF'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,0].set_title('ILF')
axs[3,1].plot(r,rho_annual['EPP'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,1].set_title('EPP')
axs[3,2].plot(r,rho_annual['FEZ'], 'black', linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9)
axs[3,2].set_title('FEZ')
plt.tight_layout()
exp_returns_yr.subplots_adjust(top=0.9)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + 'exp_returns_annual.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```


```
# Visualize Daily Average Expected Returns (Superimposed):
#fig = plt.figure(figsize=(fig_width, fig_height))
#rho_u_day = fig.add_subplot(111)
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['FXE'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='FXE')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['EWJ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='EWJ')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['GLD'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='GLD')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['QQQ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='QQQ')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['SPY'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='SPY')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['SHV'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='SHV')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['DBA'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='DBA')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['USO'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='USO')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['XBI'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='XBI')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['ILF'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='ILF')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['EPP'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='EPP')
#rho_u_day.plot(rho_daily['FEZ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='FEZ')
#rho_u_day.set_xlabel('Year', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
#rho_u_day.set_ylabel('Return', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
#rho_u_day.set_title('Daily Average Expected Returns of Portfolio Securities', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
#rho_u_day.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=10)
#plt.savefig(graphs_dir + 'exp_returns_daily_all.png', bbox_inches='tight')

# Visualize Annualized Average Expected Returns (Superimposed):
#fig = plt.figure(figsize=(fig_width, fig_height))
#rho_u_yr = fig.add_subplot(111)
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['FXE'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='FXE')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['EWJ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='EWJ')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['GLD'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='GLD')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['QQQ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='QQQ')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['SPY'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='SPY')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['SHV'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='SHV')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['DBA'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='DBA')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['USO'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='USO')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['XBI'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='XBI')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['ILF'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='ILF')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['EPP'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='EPP')
#rho_u_yr.plot(rho_annual['FEZ'], linewidth=0.5, alpha=0.9, label='FEZ')
#rho_u_yr.set_xlabel('Year', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
#rho_u_yr.set_ylabel('Return', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
#rho_u_yr.set_title('Annualized Average Expected Returns of Portfolio Securities', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
#rho_u_yr.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=10)
#plt.savefig(graphs_dir + 'exp_returns_annual_all.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

## **Deployment**

### Load Data


```
etf_ff = pd.read_csv(data_dir + '2020.12.22_ETF_FF.csv',index_col=0).fillna(0)
ff_3_daily = etf_ff.loc[:,'Mkt-RF':r'RF']
etf = etf_ff.loc[:,:'FEZ']
etf = etf.drop(['GAF'], axis=1)
R_etf = (etf/etf.shift(1)-1).replace(np.nan, 0)
R_etf = R_etf.loc['3/22/2007':'10/30/2020',:]
ff_3_daily = ff_3_daily.loc['3/22/2007':'10/30/2020',:].replace(np.nan, 0)

```


```
# ETF Data Inspection:
R_etf

```


```
# Fama French Factor Data Inspection:
ff_3_daily

```

### Before the Subprime Crisis
Period: March 22, 2007 - March 3, 2008

#### Tearsheet


```
# Pre-Subprime Crisis:
pre_subprime_R_u = R_etf.loc[:'3/3/2008',:'FEZ']
pre_subprime_ff_factors = ff_3_daily.loc[:'3/3/2008','Mkt-RF':'RF']
pre_subprime_lookbacks = [[60,60], [60,120], [90,60], [90,120], [120,60], [120,120]]
pre_subprime_betas = [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0]
pre_subprime_exec = pd.DataFrame([])
pre_subprime_final = pd.DataFrame([])
omegas = []
for lb in pre_subprime_lookbacks:
    for bt in pre_subprime_betas:
        res = backtesting(pre_subprime_R_u,
                        pre_subprime_ff_factors,
                        return_period = lb[0],
                        variance_period = lb[1],
                        lamb = 10,
                        beta_tm = bt)
        omegas.append(res[1])
        res = pd.DataFrame(res[0],index = pd.to_datetime(pre_subprime_R_u.index))
        res_perf = analytics(X = res,rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
        pre_subprime_final = pd.concat([pre_subprime_final,res],axis = 1)
        pre_subprime_exec = pd.concat([pre_subprime_exec,res_perf],axis = 1)
        
pre_subprime_final = pd.concat([pre_subprime_final,pre_subprime_R_u['SPY']],axis = 1)

pre_subprime_spy_performance = analytics(X = pd.DataFrame(pre_subprime_R_u.loc[:,'SPY']),rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
pre_subprime_exec = pd.concat([pre_subprime_exec,pre_subprime_spy_performance],axis = 1)
pre_subprime_exec.columns = [['$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','SPY'],
                                 ['β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0','']]
pre_subprime_final.columns = pre_subprime_exec.columns
save_data(pre_subprime_exec, 'pre_subprime_exec')

```

#### Plots

##### Notes

An investment strategy is abbreviated as $S_{Cov}^{E[r]}(\beta)$. In this implementation, *post_subprime_lookbacks* contains pairs $[E[r], Cov]$. *post_subprime_betas* contains the various target $\beta$.

##### Total Value


```
# Total Value:
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
for i in range(36):
  ax.plot(100*(np.cumprod(pre_subprime_final.iloc[:,i]+1)),label = pre_subprime_final.columns[i][0]+', '+pre_subprime_final.columns[i][1])
  ax.legend(loc='best', ncol=4, fontsize=10)
plt.xlabel('t', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.ylabel('Value', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.title('Value of Investment Strategies Before the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '00_pre_subprime_strategy_val.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_subprime_final.iloc[:,i]
  col_name = pre_subprime_final.columns[i]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(loc='left', fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.9).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 50, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{60}$ Returns Before the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '01_pre_subprime_ret_distS6060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+6]
  col_name = pre_subprime_final.columns[i+6]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(loc='left', fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.9).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 50, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('r', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{60}$ Returns Before the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '02_pre_subprime_ret_distS60120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+12]
  col_name = pre_subprime_final.columns[i+12]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(loc='left', fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.9).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 50, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{90}$ Returns Before the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '03_pre_subprime_ret_distS9060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+18]
  col_name = pre_subprime_final.columns[i+18]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(loc='left', fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.9).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 50, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{90}$ Returns Before the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '04_pre_subprime_ret_distS90120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+24]
  col_name = pre_subprime_final.columns[i+24]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(loc='left', fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.9).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 50, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{120}$ Returns Before the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '05_pre_subprime_ret_distS12060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+30]
  col_name = pre_subprime_final.columns[i+30]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(loc='left', fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.9).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 50, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{120}$ Returns Before the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '06_pre_subprime_ret_distS120120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

### During the Subprime Crisis
Period: March 3, 2008 - September 1, 2010

#### Tearsheet


```
# During  the Subprime Crisis:
on_subprime_R_u = R_etf.loc['3/3/2008':'9/1/2010',:'FEZ']
on_subprime_ff_factors = ff_3_daily.loc['3/3/2008':'9/1/2010','Mkt-RF':'RF']
on_subprime_lookbacks = [[60,60], [60,120], [90,60], [90,120], [120,60], [120,120]]
on_subprime_betas = [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0]
on_subprime_exec = pd.DataFrame([])
on_subprime_final = pd.DataFrame([])
omegas = []
for lb in on_subprime_lookbacks:
  for bt in on_subprime_betas:
    res = backtesting(on_subprime_R_u,
                    on_subprime_ff_factors,
                    return_period = lb[0],
                    variance_period = lb[1],
                    lamb = 10,
                    beta_tm = bt)
    omegas.append(res[1])
    res = pd.DataFrame(res[0],index = pd.to_datetime(on_subprime_R_u.index))
    res_perf = analytics(X = res,rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
    on_subprime_final = pd.concat([on_subprime_final,res],axis = 1)
    on_subprime_exec = pd.concat([on_subprime_exec,res_perf],axis = 1)

on_subprime_final = pd.concat([on_subprime_final,on_subprime_R_u['SPY']],axis = 1)

on_subprime_spy_performance = analytics(X = pd.DataFrame(on_subprime_R_u.loc[:,'SPY']),rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
on_subprime_exec = pd.concat([on_subprime_exec,on_subprime_spy_performance],axis = 1)
on_subprime_exec.columns = [['$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','SPY'],
                                 ['β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0','']]

on_subprime_final.columns = on_subprime_exec.columns
save_data(on_subprime_exec, 'on_subprime_exec')

```

#### Plots

##### Notes

An investment strategy is abbreviated as $S_{Cov}^{E[r]}(\beta)$. In this implementation, *post_subprime_lookbacks* contains pairs $[E[r], Cov]$. *post_subprime_betas* contains the various target $\beta$.

##### Total Value


```
# During the Subprime crisis, plots:
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
for i in range(36):
  ax.plot(100*(np.cumprod(on_subprime_final.iloc[:,i]+1)),label = on_subprime_final.columns[i][0]+', '+on_subprime_final.columns[i][1])
  ax.legend(loc='best', ncol=4, fontsize=10)
plt.xlabel('t', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.ylabel('Value', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.title('Value of Investment Strategies During the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '07_on_subprime_strategy_val.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = on_subprime_final.iloc[:,i]
  col_name = on_subprime_final.columns[i]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x, y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:]) / 2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs = z, zdir = 'y', color = cs, alpha = 0.7, width = 0.003, label = col_name[0]+', ' + col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 50, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{60}$ Returns During the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '08_on_subprime_ret_distS6060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = on_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+6]
  col_name = on_subprime_final.columns[i+6]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/40,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('r', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{60}$ Returns During the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '09_on_subprime_ret_distS60120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = on_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+12]
  col_name = on_subprime_final.columns[i+12]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/50,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{90}$ Returns During the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '10_on_subprime_ret_distS9060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = on_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+18]
  col_name = on_subprime_final.columns[i+18]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/50,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{90}$ Returns During the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '11_on_subprime_ret_distS90120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = on_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+24]
  col_name = on_subprime_final.columns[i+24]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/50,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{120}$ Returns During the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '12_on_subprime_ret_distS12060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = on_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+30]
  col_name = on_subprime_final.columns[i+30]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/50,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{120}$ Returns During the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '13_on_subprime_ret_distS120120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

### After the Subprime Crisis
Period: September 1, 2010 - January 2, 2015

#### Tearsheet


```
# After the Subprime Crisis:
post_subprime_R_u = R_etf.loc['9/1/2010':'1/2/2015',:'FEZ']
post_subprime_ff_factors = ff_3_daily.loc['9/1/2010':'1/2/2015','Mkt-RF':'RF']
post_subprime_lookbacks = [[60,60], [60,120], [90,60], [90,120], [120,60], [120,120]]
post_subprime_betas = [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0]
post_subprime_exec = pd.DataFrame([])
post_subprime_final = pd.DataFrame([])
omegas = []
for lb in post_subprime_lookbacks:
  for bt in post_subprime_betas:
    res = backtesting(post_subprime_R_u,
                    post_subprime_ff_factors,
                    return_period = lb[0],
                    variance_period = lb[1],
                    lamb = 10,
                    beta_tm = bt)
    omegas.append(res[1])
    res = pd.DataFrame(res[0],index = pd.to_datetime(post_subprime_R_u.index))
    res_perf = analytics(X = res,rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
    post_subprime_final = pd.concat([post_subprime_final,res],axis = 1)
    post_subprime_exec = pd.concat([post_subprime_exec,res_perf],axis = 1)

post_subprime_final = pd.concat([post_subprime_final,post_subprime_R_u['SPY']],axis = 1)
post_subprime_spy_performance = analytics(X = pd.DataFrame(post_subprime_R_u.loc[:,'SPY']),rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
post_subprime_exec = pd.concat([post_subprime_exec,post_subprime_spy_performance],axis = 1)

post_subprime_exec.columns = [['$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','SPY'],
                                 ['β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0','']]

post_subprime_final.columns = post_subprime_exec.columns

# Save Data:
save_data(post_subprime_exec, 'post_subprime_exec')

```

#### Plots

##### Notes

An investment strategy is abbreviated as $S_{Cov}^{E[r]}(\beta)$. In this implementation, *post_subprime_lookbacks* contains pairs $[E[r], Cov]$. *post_subprime_betas* contains the various target $\beta$.

##### Total Value


```
# After Crisis Plot:
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
for i in range(36):
  ax.plot(100*(np.cumprod(post_subprime_final.iloc[:,i]+1)),label = post_subprime_final.columns[i][0]+', '+post_subprime_final.columns[i][1])
  ax.legend(loc='best', ncol=4, fontsize=10)
plt.xlabel('t', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.ylabel('Value', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.title('Value of Investment Strategies After the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '14_post_subprime_strategy_val.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = post_subprime_final.iloc[:,i]
  col_name = post_subprime_final.columns[i]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/30,[z]*len(y),dens/10,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{60}$ Returns After the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '15_post_subprime_ret_distS6060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = post_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+6]
  col_name = post_subprime_final.columns[i+6]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/40,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('r', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{60}$ Returns After the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '16_post_subprime_ret_distS60120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = post_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+12]
  col_name = post_subprime_final.columns[i+12]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/30,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('r', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{90}$ Returns After the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '17_post_subprime_ret_distS9060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = post_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+18]
  col_name = post_subprime_final.columns[i+18]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/30,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{90}$ Returns After the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '18_post_subprime_ret_distS90120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = post_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+24]
  col_name = post_subprime_final.columns[i+24]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/30,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{120}$ Returns After the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '19_post_subprime_ret_distS12060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = post_subprime_final.iloc[:,i+30]
  col_name = post_subprime_final.columns[i+30]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/50,[z]*len(y),dens/9,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{120}$ Returns After the Subprime Crisis', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '20_post_subprime_ret_distS120120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

### Before COVID-19
Period: January 2, 2015 - March 9, 2020

#### Tearsheet


```
# Pre-COVID:
pre_covid_R_u = R_etf.loc['1/2/2015':'3/9/2020',:'FEZ']
pre_covid_ff_factors = ff_3_daily.loc['1/2/2015':'3/9/2020','Mkt-RF':'RF']
pre_covid_lookbacks = [[60,60], [60,120], [90,60], [90,120], [120,60], [120,120]]
pre_covid_betas = [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0]
pre_covid_exec = pd.DataFrame([])
pre_covid_final = pd.DataFrame([])
omegas = []
for lb in pre_covid_lookbacks:
  for bt in pre_covid_betas:
    res = backtesting(pre_covid_R_u,
                    pre_covid_ff_factors,
                    return_period = lb[0],
                    variance_period = lb[1],
                    lamb = 10,
                    beta_tm = bt)
    omegas.append(res[1])
    res = pd.DataFrame(res[0],index = pd.to_datetime(pre_covid_R_u.index))
    res_perf = analytics(X = res,rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
    pre_covid_final = pd.concat([pre_covid_final,res],axis = 1)
    pre_covid_exec = pd.concat([pre_covid_exec,res_perf],axis = 1)

pre_covid_final = pd.concat([pre_covid_final,pre_covid_R_u['SPY']],axis = 1)
pre_covid_spy_performance = analytics(X = pd.DataFrame(pre_covid_R_u.loc[:,'SPY']),rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
pre_covid_exec = pd.concat([pre_covid_exec,pre_covid_spy_performance],axis = 1)

pre_covid_exec.columns = [['$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','SPY'],
                                 ['β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0','']]

pre_covid_final.columns = pre_covid_exec.columns

# Save Data:
save_data(pre_covid_exec, 'pre_covid_exec')

```

#### Plots

##### Notes

An investment strategy is abbreviated as $S_{Cov}^{E[r]}(\beta)$. In this implementation, *post_subprime_lookbacks* contains pairs $[E[r], Cov]$. *post_subprime_betas* contains the various target $\beta$.

##### Total Value


```
# Pre-COVID Plot:
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
for i in range(36):
  ax.plot(100*(np.cumprod(pre_covid_final.iloc[:,i]+1)),label = pre_covid_final.columns[i][0]+', '+pre_covid_final.columns[i][1])
  ax.legend(loc='best', ncol=4, fontsize=10)
plt.xlabel('t', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.ylabel('Value', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.title('Value of Investment Strategies Before COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '21_pre_covid_strategy_val.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_covid_final.iloc[:,i]
  col_name = pre_covid_final.columns[i]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/20,[z]*len(y),dens/10,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{60}$ Returns Before COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '22_pre_covid_ret_distS6060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_covid_final.iloc[:,i+6]
  col_name = pre_covid_final.columns[i+6]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/20,[z]*len(y),dens/10,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{60}$ Returns Before COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '23_pre_covid_ret_distS60120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_covid_final.iloc[:,i+12]
  col_name = pre_covid_final.columns[i+12]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/20,[z]*len(y),dens/10,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{90}$ Returns Before COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '24_pre_covid_ret_distS9060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_covid_final.iloc[:,i+18]
  col_name = pre_covid_final.columns[i+18]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/20,[z]*len(y),dens/10,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{90}$ Returns Before COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '25_pre_covid_ret_distS90120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_covid_final.iloc[:,i+24]
  col_name = pre_covid_final.columns[i+24]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/20,[z]*len(y),dens/10,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{120}$ Returns Before COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '26_pre_covid_ret_distS12060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = pre_covid_final.iloc[:,i+30]
  col_name = pre_covid_final.columns[i+30]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot/20,[z]*len(y),dens/10,color ='black',linewidth = 2.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{120}$ Returns Before COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)

plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '27_pre_covid_ret_distS120120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

### During COVID-19
Period: March 9, 2020 - Present

#### Tearsheet


```
# During-COVID:
on_covid_R_u = R_etf.loc['3/9/2020':,:'FEZ']
on_covid_ff_factors = ff_3_daily.loc['3/9/2020':,'Mkt-RF':'RF']
on_covid_lookbacks = [[60,60], [60,120], [90,60], [90,120], [120,60], [120,120]]
on_covid_betas = [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0]
on_covid_exec = pd.DataFrame([])
on_covid_final = pd.DataFrame([])
omegas = []
for lb in on_covid_lookbacks:
  for bt in on_covid_betas:
    res = backtesting(on_covid_R_u,
                    on_covid_ff_factors,
                    return_period = lb[0],
                    variance_period = lb[1],
                    lamb = 10,
                    beta_tm = bt)
    omegas.append(res[1])
    res = pd.DataFrame(res[0],index = pd.to_datetime(on_covid_R_u.index))
    res_perf = analytics(X = res,rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
    on_covid_final = pd.concat([on_covid_final,res],axis = 1)
    on_covid_exec = pd.concat([on_covid_exec,res_perf],axis = 1)

on_covid_final = pd.concat([on_covid_final,on_covid_R_u['SPY']],axis = 1)
on_covid_spy_performance = analytics(X = pd.DataFrame(on_covid_R_u.loc[:,'SPY']),rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
on_covid_exec = pd.concat([on_covid_exec,on_covid_spy_performance],axis = 1)

on_covid_exec.columns = [['$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','SPY'],
                                 ['β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0','']]

on_covid_final.columns = on_covid_exec.columns

# Save Data:
save_data(on_covid_exec, 'on_covid_exec')

```

#### Plots

##### Notes

An investment strategy is abbreviated as $S_{Cov}^{E[r]}(\beta)$. In this implementation, *post_subprime_lookbacks* contains pairs $[E[r], Cov]$. *post_subprime_betas* contains the various target $\beta$.

##### Total Value


```
# During COVID Plot:
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
for i in range(36):
  ax.plot(100*(np.cumprod(on_covid_final.iloc[:,i]+1)),label = on_covid_final.columns[i][0]+', '+on_covid_final.columns[i][1])
  ax.legend(loc='best', ncol=4, fontsize=10)
plt.xlabel('t', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.ylabel('Value', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.title('Value of Investment Strategies During COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '28_on_covid_strategy_val.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = on_covid_final.iloc[:,i]
  col_name = on_covid_final.columns[i]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{60}$ Returns During COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '29_on_covid_ret_distS6060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = on_covid_final.iloc[:,i+6]
  col_name = on_covid_final.columns[i+6]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{60}$ Returns During COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '30_on_covid_ret_distS60120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = on_covid_final.iloc[:,i+12]
  col_name = on_covid_final.columns[i+12]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{90}$ Returns During COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '31_on_covid_ret_distS9060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = on_covid_final.iloc[:,i+18]
  col_name = on_covid_final.columns[i+18]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{90}$ Returns During COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '32_on_covid_ret_distS90120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = on_covid_final.iloc[:,i+24]
  col_name = on_covid_final.columns[i+24]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{120}$ Returns During COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '33_on_covid_ret_distS12060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')
for i in range(6):
  dt = on_covid_final.iloc[:,i+30]
  col_name = on_covid_final.columns[i+30]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)
  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{120}$ Returns During COVID-19', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '34_on_covid_ret_distS120120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

### Full Investment Horizon
Period: March 22, 2007 - October 30, 2020

#### Tearsheet


```
# Full Period:
full_horizon_R_u = R_etf.loc[:,:]
full_horizon_ff_factors = ff_3_daily.loc[:,'Mkt-RF':'RF']
full_horizon_lookbacks = [[60,60], [60,120], [90,60], [90,120], [120,60], [120,120]]
full_horizon_betas = [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0]
full_horizon_exec = pd.DataFrame([])
full_horizon_final = pd.DataFrame([])
omegas = []

for lb in full_horizon_lookbacks:
  for bt in full_horizon_betas:
    res = backtesting(full_horizon_R_u,
                    full_horizon_ff_factors,
                    return_period = lb[0],
                    variance_period = lb[1],
                    lamb = 10,
                    beta_tm = bt)
    omegas.append(res[1])
    res = pd.DataFrame(res[0],index = pd.to_datetime(full_horizon_R_u.index))
    res_perf = analytics(X = res,rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
    full_horizon_final = pd.concat([full_horizon_final,res],axis = 1)
    full_horizon_exec = pd.concat([full_horizon_exec,res_perf],axis = 1)

full_horizon_final = pd.concat([full_horizon_final,full_horizon_R_u['SPY']],axis = 1)
full_horizon_spy_performance = analytics(X = pd.DataFrame(full_horizon_R_u.loc[:,'SPY']),rf = 0.06, confidenceLevel = 0.95, position = 100)
full_horizon_exec = pd.concat([full_horizon_exec,full_horizon_spy_performance],axis = 1)
full_horizon_exec.columns = [['$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$','$S^{60}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$','$S^{60}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$','$S^{90}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$','$S^{90}_{120}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$','$S^{120}_{60}$',
                                  '$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','$S^{120}_{120}$','SPY'],
                                 ['β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0',
                                  'β=-1.0','β=-0.5','β=0.5','β=1.0','β=1.5','β=2.0','']]

full_horizon_final.columns = full_horizon_exec.columns
full_horizon_exec.to_csv('full_horizon_exec')

# Save Data:
save_data(full_horizon_exec, 'full_horizon_exec')

```

#### Plots

##### Notes

An investment strategy is abbreviated as $S_{Cov}^{E[r]}(\beta)$. In this implementation, *post_subprime_lookbacks* contains pairs $[E[r], Cov]$. *post_subprime_betas* contains the various target $\beta$.

##### Total Value


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111)
for i in range(36):
  ax.plot(100*(np.cumprod(full_horizon_final.iloc[:,i]+1)),label = full_horizon_final.columns[i][0]+', '+full_horizon_final.columns[i][1])
  ax.legend(loc='best', ncol=4, fontsize=10)
plt.xlabel('t', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.ylabel('Value', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
plt.title('Value of Investment Strategies Across the Investment Horizon', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '35_full_horizon_strategy_val.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = full_horizon_final.iloc[:,i]
  col_name = full_horizon_final.columns[i]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{60}$ Returns Across the Investment Horizon', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '36_full_ret_distS6060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{60}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = full_horizon_final.iloc[:,i+6]
  col_name = full_horizon_final.columns[i+6]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{60}$ Returns Across the Investment Horizon', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '37_full_ret_distS60120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = full_horizon_final.iloc[:,i+12]
  col_name = full_horizon_final.columns[i+12]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{90}$ Returns Across the Investment Horizon', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '38_full_ret_distS9060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{90}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = full_horizon_final.iloc[:,i+18]
  col_name = full_horizon_final.columns[i+18]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{90}$ Returns Across the Investment Horizon', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '39_full_ret_distS90120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{60}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = full_horizon_final.iloc[:,i+24]
  col_name = full_horizon_final.columns[i+24]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{60}^{120}$ Returns Across the Investment Horizon', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '40_full_ret_distS12060.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

##### $S_{120}^{120}(\beta^{m}_{T})$


```
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
ax = fig.add_subplot(111, projection='3d')

for i in range(6):
  dt = full_horizon_final.iloc[:,i+30]
  col_name = full_horizon_final.columns[i+30]
  c =  ['r', 'g', 'b', 'y', 'm','orange'][i]
  z =  [-1.0, -0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0][i]
  x,y = np.histogram(dt,bins = 100)
  x = x/len(dt)
  y = (y[:-1]+y[1:])/2
  cs = [c] * len(x)
  ax.bar(y, x, zs=z, zdir='y', color=cs, alpha=0.7,width = 0.003,label = col_name[0]+', '+col_name[1])
  ax.legend(fontsize=13)

  samples = np.asarray(dt).reshape(-1,1)
  x_plot = np.linspace(-10,10,100).reshape(-1,1)
  kde = KernelDensity(kernel='gaussian', bandwidth=0.75).fit(samples)
  log_dens = kde.score_samples(x_plot)
  dens = np.exp(log_dens)
  ax.view_init(20, 50)
  ax.plot(x_plot / 20, [z] * len(y), dens / 8, color = 'black', linewidth = 3.0)
ax.set_xlabel('$ρ$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_ylabel('$β$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_zlabel('$f$', fontweight='bold', fontsize=15)
ax.set_title('$S_{120}^{120}$ Returns Across the Investment Horizon', fontweight='bold', fontsize=18)
plt.savefig(graphs_dir + '41_full_ret_distS120120.png', bbox_inches='tight')

```

## **Appendix**

Included is the progress on a Maximum Return solver and a Minimum Variance solver with $\rho_{p}=15\%$

### Data


```
# ETF Data:
ticker = ['FXE','EWJ','GLD','QQQ','SPY','SHV','DBA','USO',
          'XBI','ILF','GAF','EPP','FEZ']
start =  datetime(2007, 3, 26)
end = datetime(2020, 10, 30)
data = pd.DataFrame()
for i in ticker:
    data[i] = web.DataReader(i, 'yahoo', start, end)['Close']
data.to_csv('ETFs.csv')

```


```
# Load data
ETF = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'ETFs.csv', index_col=0)[55:]
F = pd.read_csv(data_dir + 'Factors.csv', index_col=0)[56:]
F.index = ETF.index[1:]
# Calculte the simple anualized returns for the ETFs
R = (ETF.pct_change(1)[1:])*250
# Calculate the excess annualized return for the ETFs
ER = pd.DataFrame(R.values-F['RF'].values.reshape(-1,1),
                  index=F.index, columns=ticker)
print(str(ER))
F = F.iloc[:,0:3]
F

```

### Maximum Return


```
# Before the subprime crisis(2007/03/26 - 2008/03/23)
R_bc = R['2007-03-26':'2008-03-23'].values
ER_bc = ER['2007-03-26':'2008-03-23'].values
F_bc = F['2007-03-26':'2008-03-23'].values

# During the subprime crisis(2008/03/24 - 2009/06/30)
R_bc = R['2008-03-24':'2009-06-30'].values
ER_bc = ER['2008-03-24':'2009-06-30'].values
F_bc = F['2008-03-24':'2009-06-30'].values

# After the subprime crisis(2007/03/26 - 2008/03/23)
#R_bc = R['2009-06-30':'2016-10-20'].values
#ER_bc = ER['2009-06-30':'2016-10-20'].values
#F_bc = F['2009-06-30':'2016-10-20'].values

```


```
Num_days = len(F_bc)
FR_bc = F_bc[1:].copy()

```


```
# Short term model(60 days)
Lambda = 0.001
beta_T = [0.5, 1, 1.5]
R_opt = []

# Conduct the max return strategy:
for j in beta_T:
  Rp = []
  wp = np.ones((13,1))*1/13
  for i in range(len(R_bc)-59):
    r = R_bc[i:(i+60),:]
    er = ER_bc[i:(i+60),:]
    f1 = F_bc[i:(i+60),:]
    rho = r.mean(axis=0).reshape(-1,1)
    cov_f = np.cov(f1, rowvar=False)

    # Run regression to get the beta:
    lm = LinearRegression()
    lm.fit(f1, er)
    coeff3 = lm.coef_
    beta = coeff3[:,0]
    error = er - lm.predict(f1)

    # Calculate the covariance matrix:
    Q = coeff3.dot(cov_f).dot(coeff3.T)+np.diag(error.var(axis=0))

    # Preparation for the optimization:
    P = matrix(2*Lambda*Q, tc='d')
    q = matrix(-2*Lambda*(Q.T).dot(wp)-rho, tc='d')
    A = matrix(np.vstack((beta, [1]*13)), tc='d')
    G = matrix(np.vstack((np.diag([1]*13),np.diag([-1]*13))), tc='d')
    h = matrix([2]*26, tc='d')
    b = matrix([j,1], tc='d')

    # Do the optimization using QP solver:
    opt = solvers.qp(P, q, G, h, A, b, options={'show_progress':False})
    w = opt['x']
    wp = np.array(w).reshape(-1,1)
    Rp = Rp + [wp.T.dot(rho)[0,0]]
  R_opt.append(Rp)

R_opt = pd.DataFrame(np.array(R_opt))
R_opt

```


```
# Short term model(60 days)
Lambda = 0.001
beta_T = [0.5, 1, 1.5]
R_opt = []

# Conduct the max return strategy
window = 63
alocate = 5
R_opt = R_bc[window:,4]/250
for j in beta_T:
  Rp = []
  wp = np.ones((13,1))*1/13
  for i in range(window,Num_days):
    future_return = R_bc[i, :].reshape(-1, 1)
    if i%alocate==0:
      r = R_bc[(i-window):i,:]
      er = ER_bc[(i-window):i,:]
      f1 = F_bc[(i-window):i,:]
      rho = r.mean(axis=0).reshape(-1,1)
      cov_f = np.cov(f1, rowvar=False)

      # Run regression to get the beta
      lm = LinearRegression()
      lm.fit(f1, er)
      coeff3 = lm.coef_
      beta = coeff3[:,0]
      error = er - lm.predict(f1)

      # Calculate the covariance matrix
      #Q = coeff3.dot(cov_f).dot(coeff3.T)+np.diag(error.var(axis=0))
      Q = np.diag([1]*13)

      # Preparation for the optimization
      P = matrix(2*Lambda*Q, tc='d')
      q = matrix(-2*Lambda*(Q.T).dot(wp)-rho, tc='d')
      A = matrix(np.vstack((beta, [1]*13)), tc='d')
      G = matrix(np.vstack((np.diag([1]*13),np.diag([-1]*13))), tc='d')
      h = matrix([2]*26, tc='d')
      b = matrix([j,1], tc='d')
      
      # Do the optimization using QP solver
      opt = solvers.qp(P, q, G, h, A, b, options={'show_progress':False})
      w = opt['x']
      wp = np.array(w).reshape(-1,1)
    Rp = Rp + [wp.T.dot(future_return/250)[0,0]]

R_opt = pd.DataFrame(np.array(R_opt).transpose())
R_opt

```

### Minimum variance with $\rho_{p}=15\%$


```
# Before the subprime crisis(2007/03/26 - 2008/03/23)
R_bc = R['2007-03-26':'2008-03-23'].values
ER_bc = ER['2007-03-26':'2008-03-23'].values
F_bc = F['2007-03-26':'2008-03-23'].values

# During the subprime crisis(2008/03/24 - 2009/06/30)
R_bc = R['2008-03-24':'2009-06-30'].values
ER_bc = ER['2008-03-24':'2009-06-30'].values
F_bc = F['2008-03-24':'2009-06-30'].values

# After the subprime crisis(2007/03/26 - 2008/03/23)
#R_bc = R['2009-06-30':'2016-10-20'].values
#ER_bc = ER['2009-06-30':'2016-10-20'].values
#F_bc = F['2009-06-30':'2016-10-20'].values

```


```
Num_days = len(F_bc)
FR_bc = F_bc[1:].copy()

```


```
Rp = []
wp = np.ones((13,1))*1/13

for i in range(len(R_bc)-59):
  r = R_bc[i:(i+60),:]
  er = ER_bc[i:(i+60),:]
  f2 = F_bc[i:(i+60),:]
  rho = r.mean(axis=0)
  cov_f = np.cov(f2, rowvar=False)

  # Run regression to get the beta
  lm = LinearRegression()
  lm.fit(f2, er)
  coeff3 = lm.coef_
  beta = coeff3[:,0]
  error = er - lm.predict(f2)

  # Calculate the covariance matrix
  Q = coeff3.dot(cov_f).dot(coeff3.T)+np.diag(error.var(axis=0))

  # Preparation for the optimization
  P = matrix(2*(1+Lambda)*Q, tc='d')
  q = matrix(-2*Lambda*(Q.T).dot(wp), tc='d')
  G = matrix(np.vstack((np.diag([1]*13),np.diag([-1]*13))), tc='d')
  h = matrix([2]*26, tc='d') 
  A = matrix(np.vstack((beta, [1]*13)), tc='d')
  b = matrix([0.15,1], tc='d')

  # Do the optimization using QP solver
  opt = solvers.qp(P, q, G, h, A, b, options={'show_progress':False})
  w = opt['x']
  wp = np.array(w).reshape(-1,1)
  Rp = Rp + [wp.T.dot(rho.reshape(-1,1))[0,0]]

R_opt.append(Rp)
R_opt = pd.DataFrame(np.array(R_opt))
R_opt

```


```
# Conduct the min variance with 15% target return strategy.
Rp = []
wp = np.ones((13,1))*1/13

# Short term model(60 days)
Lambda = 0.001
beta_T = [0.5, 1, 1.5]
R_opt = []

for i in range(window, Num_days):
  future_return = R_bc[i, :].reshape(-1, 1)
  if i % alocate == 0:
    r = R_bc[(i - window):i, :]
    er = ER_bc[(i - window):i, :]
    f1 = F_bc[(i - window):i, :]
    rho = r.mean(axis=0)
    cov_f = np.cov(f1, rowvar=False)

    # Run regression to get the beta
    lm = LinearRegression()
    lm.fit(f1, er)
    coeff3 = lm.coef_
    beta = coeff3[:,0]
    error = er - lm.predict(f1)

    # Calculate the covariance matrix
    Q = coeff3.dot(cov_f).dot(coeff3.T)+np.diag(error.var(axis=0))
    Q_ = np.diag([1]*13)

    # Preparation for the optimization
    P = matrix((Q+Lambda*Q_), tc='d')
    q = matrix(-2*Lambda*(Q_.T).dot(wp), tc='d')
    G = matrix(np.vstack((np.diag([1]*13),np.diag([-1]*13))), tc='d')
    h = matrix([2]*26, tc='d')
    A = matrix(np.vstack((rho, [1]*13)), tc='d')
    b = matrix([0.15,1], tc='d')

    # Do the optimization using QP solver
    opt = solvers.qp(P, q, G, h, A, b, options={'show_progress':False})
    w = opt['x']
    wp = np.array(w).reshape(-1,1)
  Rp = Rp + [wp.T.dot(future_return/250)[0,0]]
  R_opt.append(Rp)

#plt.plot(range(result.shape[0]),result['beta=0.5'])

result = pd.DataFrame(R_opt)
print(result)

```

### PnL


```
# Compute PnL
pnl = PnL(result)
print(pnl)
for i in range(6):
  plt.plot(pnl[:,i],label=i)
plt.legend(loc='best')
plt.show()

# result = R_bc.copy()/250
days = result.shape[0]

print('Last PnL after %s: ' % days, PnL(result,100)[-1, :])

# Geometric Mean
print('Geometric mean',geom_mean(result)*250)

# Min
print('Daily min',np.min(result,axis=0)*250)

# Max Drawdown
print('max drawdown: ', MaxDrawdown(result))

# Vol:
print('Volatility', Volatility(result))

# Sharpe Ratio:
RF = np.array(R_bc-ER_bc)[:,0].reshape(-1,1)/250
#print('Sharp ratio: ', Sharpe(result,RF))
# print('Mean sharp: ', np.mean(Sharpe(result,RF),axis=0))

# Kurt:
print('Kurt: ', Kurt(result))
print('Skewness: ', Skew(result))
print('%s VaR %s days: ' % (0.99, days), VaR(result, 0.99))
print('%s CVaR %s days: ' % (0.99, days), CVaR(result, 0.99))

#for i in range(result.shape[1]):
    # print(i)
    #plt.plot((1+result[:,i]).cumprod(),label=ticker[i])

#plt.legend(loc='best')
RF = np.array(R_bc - ER_bc)[window:, 0].reshape(-1, 1) / 250
#Summary(R_bc,RF,0.99)

```

### Other


```
#pd.DataFrame(R_opt,index=['β=0.5','β=1','β=1.5','minvar']).T

```


```
r = R_bc[0:60,:]
er = ER_bc[0:60,:]
f1 = F_bc[0:60,:]
rho = r.mean(axis=0).reshape(-1,1)
cov_f = np.cov(f1, rowvar=False)

# Run regression to get the beta
lm = LinearRegression()
lm.fit(f1, er)
coeff3 = lm.coef_
beta = coeff3[:,0]
error = er - lm.predict(f1)
# Calculate the covariance matrix
Q = coeff3.dot(cov_f).dot(coeff3.T)+np.diag(error.var(axis=0))
# Preparation for the optimization
P = matrix(2*Lambda*Q, tc='d')
q = matrix(-2*Lambda*(Q.T).dot(wp)-rho, tc='d')
A = matrix(np.vstack((beta, [1]*13)), tc='d')
b = matrix([1.5,1], tc='d')
# Do the optimization using QP solver
opt = solvers.qp(P=P, q=q, A=A, b=b, options={'show_progress':False})
w = opt['x']
wp = np.array(w).reshape(-1,1)
```


```
wp.T.dot(rho)
wp

```


```
#pd.DataFrame(R_opt,index=['β=0.5','β=1','β=1.5','minvar']).T

```

0a2e953d45c4fd9377b9b9db12cf4d48c61d4a75
ipynb
Jupyter Notebook
src/global_macro.ipynb
theo-dim/global_macro
a986d44909440cca376f02238ec9ed87d57515f9
MIT
2021-01-19T15:45:38.000Z
2022-02-20T06:31:15.000Z
src/global_macro.ipynb
theo-dim/global_macro
a986d44909440cca376f02238ec9ed87d57515f9
MIT
src/global_macro.ipynb
theo-dim/global_macro
a986d44909440cca376f02238ec9ed87d57515f9
MIT
2021-02-02T16:10:14.000Z
2021-02-02T16:10:14.000Z
Qwen/Qwen-72B
1. YES
2. YES