Hello Doc:  If, indeed, you're working on a PhD in Statistics you should have an adequate knowledge base to recognize that the work of the NESPT Fellows is based on a sound and verified Chi-squared analysis of the peramative matrix-flow at the substrata level of the data block.  Their second and third stage conclusions follow from that firm foundation.  Any substantive repudiations on those conclusions must be based on an affirmed refutation of that basic matrix-flow analysis.  That has yet to be achieved.  I suggest you might wish to wait for the publication of the entire study including several peer-review critiques.  As I mentioned, it's due to be published in its entirety in the April 1st edition of The New England Journal of Political Campaign Prognostication and Analysis.  The conclusions are theirs, not mine....and frankly, I don't claim to fully understand the depth of analysis they employed.  It's way beyond my knowledge.  But, based on the data, I accept their conclusions.