No, we read the same column, Richard. Here's the possible scenario as Homer-Dixon sets it out:

1. Mueller oversees the aggressively expanding investigation of possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russians.

2. Trump desperately wants to end the investigation and what it might reveal. 

3. In the current environment, any effort by Trump to have Mr. Mueller fired would produce a constitutional crisis at the least.

4. Trump knows that the start of a war almost always produces a “rally round the flag” effect. 

5. In the opening days of a new war, the resulting surge in his poll numbers could encourage congressional Republicans to back him should he move to fire Mr. Mueller simultaneously.

Will he actually start a war for this purpose?  Reasonable people hope not, but on what we know of Trump and Bannon, it's a possibility.  And the foundation on which it rests - points #1-5 - is all supported by fact.