This analysis may be invalid.  If those who want Bernier rank him number 1, and the 'anyone but Bernier' all rank him far down the list, then it doesn't matter what Raitt, Chong, Scheer, O'Toole and so on, do to each other.  One of them will win if Bernier doesn't crack 50.1% on the first ballot, and a big 'if', if there is actually an 'anyone but Bernier' camp of substantial size.  Really though: getting rid of the capital gains tax and federal health care?  There could well be a mixed lot who think that's pie in the sky, and if there is, Bernier won't win.