Excellent analysis, Stephen. Just one thing - the Ipsos poll was very misleading. It said the ANC would get 47% and the DA 21%. However the total of Don't Knows, Refuse To Answers, and Will Not Votes come to 22%. If you take these out the ANC gets more than 60%. However (again), in previous elections, Ipsos has consistently underestimated the DA vote. Whichever way you look at it, the 47% is very misleading, and Ipsos could have presented the poll better.