Sure, it's noise.  But armchair political analysis is probably second only to sports around the water coolers and in the barrrooms of the country.  It's kinda fun to guess at the outcome, that's why we do it.

It's funny, Teddy, that you accuse both the columnist and the Liberals of drive by smears and bamboozling the electorate.  The vitriol heaped on Ignatieff, Dion, and Trudeau by the Conservatives was nastier than the Liberal brand and reminded me of US style politics (ugh).  I am not a strong supporter of any political party since they are all steeped in hypocrisy and self interest.....but c'mon.

And finally, your "if 60% or more of voters want a change" gave me a bit of a sardonic grin.  First, the Liberals are outpolling the Cons by nearly 20%.  Second, in the last two elections, a majority was formed with only about 40% of the popular vote.  60 would be an unprecedented landslide.