Mr. Rosenberg, a useful analysis and I think well reasoned.

I would add that the medium to longer term value of the Canadian dollar in international markets will depend on the productivity performance of the Canadian economy. Of course that is also relative to productivity growth rates elsewhere, notably the United States. Forecasting that factor is difficult but there is a lot of inertia in productivity change, so I would not expect a leap in the Canadian dollar on that fundamental account; but other factors such as commodity prices may be more likely to come into play and show in these dollar contract markets more quickly, as you say.