Huge difference between being in denial and recognizing the folly in trying to time the market. 

The funny part is that you seem to be suggesting that predicting average returns over the next 5 - 20 years is rubbish, while claiming that you have the ability to accurately predict what the market will do over the next 5 - 20 days.

Sorry but I will take the odds on what the next 5 - 20 years will do over the next 5 - 20 days.  Feel free to run that scenario over any period in the history of the modern market.