What happens over the next couple of decades, as competition from solar power reduces the value of oil, and climate change makes farming difficult in the middle east?  On the plus side, the Americans and Europeans will lose interest and stop sending munitions, and the middle eastern ruling classes will lose the petrodollars that allow them to control the great mass of their populations.  The downside is that the basis of whole economies will have to change in order to avoid mass starvation.