No, NWS does not deserve a break.  Look at the forecast discussions they post.  They get lost in their models.  They get lost in their geekdom.  They should just look at radar maps and make an educated guess.  That will be more accurate than their goofy models.  NWS predictions used to be someone reliable, now they are pathetic.  That can likely be attributed to overuse of questionable modeling software and under-use of common sense.