I would argue that she has, or has in the making, at least two wins.  Despite the chorus of Chickens Little screaming that she would cause the sky to fall and bring about the end of civilization in AB, and the PC business community threatening to bring about economic collapse, she has lead the Province through a very difficult period intact, albeit with deficit financing. Who would have done better, given the world commodity pricing situation that she faced?

Second, many of those Trudeau supporters you mention are now, or are rapidly becoming, former Trudeau supporters, like me, and would look very closely at a moderate NDP lead my Notley.  Very closely.