As you say, you and I are informed by different realities. I read the news regularly from three different countries UK, US and Canada. I have at least one university degree from each of those same 3 countries - and I've lived in each.  I could tell in advance of the mess in Iraq where US policy was going horribly off the rails, not letting IAEA inspectors finish their inspections in Iraq, giving weight to senseless quasi corroboration of the Iraqi nuclear threat based on bogus reports out of Africa, ignoring the ethnic balancing act that was Iraq and all of this badly reported in portions of lapdog US media. So pardon me for having a bit more confidence in my opinion compared to yours. It is informed by a lot of education, and a critical eye for what adds and the actual ability to compute.