(continued) 

The demand for roughly 17M new vehicles EACH YEAR isn't likely to change.  If there's a "I'm willing to wait for a Tesla" effect you speak of causes a dip in the 17M number for, say 2018 and 2019, there will be pent-up demand unfulfilled by 2020.  17M/yr works out to 85M new vehicles every 5 years.  Short of there being a dramatic lifespan lengthening of most vehicles on the road, that long-term demand stays mostly constant.  Tesla won't come anywhere close to meeting that demand.  And the major automakers will probably need 5+ years to really start cranking out comparable EVs in large numbers (probably closer to 10 years by the time all the trials and errors work their way through the process).  

And that's IF it all even goes that way.  If EVs really do take off as you're suggesting here, oil and gasoline prices will likely start dropping again, making ICE vehicles more attractive, and slowing their demise.