"April 28, 2017 – There is a 50-60% chance of an El Niño event forming in middle to late 2017, according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization."

"Many of the climate models surveyed indicate that basin-wide neutral conditions will persist through to June 2017. The subsequent development of an El Niño during the second half of 2017 is more likely than the continuation of neutral conditions."

If there is a 50-60% chance of rain tomorrow in Eugene, do you take sunscreen or buy an umbrella? 

The prediction came from a computer based on the latest science and observations.   Should  that make a difference in your decision?