I'd say the Leafs are in the playoffs, the Islanders just haven't been able to keep up.  Tampa would be be the only realistic team to leapfrog them, and do have some wiggle room not having to run the table.

>= 41 wins and in:
Washington
Columbus
Pittsburgh
NY Rangers
Montreal
Ottawa
Boston

Toronto - 37 wins but 6 more OTL than most team  = 3 wins ~ 40 wins

Tampa - 38 max 44
Carolina - 35 max 41
NYI - 35 max 41
Phi - 37 max 41