Not sure that the jobs report should weigh heavily in Poloz’s decision. Employment lags the business cycle. The June employment data may not even provide a good indication of what to expect for real GDP growth for May or June, let alone for later. In any case, since the BoC is, de jure at least, an inflation targeting central bank, it should hardly be raising rates based on inflation estimates that are so far below target. Poloz’s own incompetence has helped to put him in this bind. He is the only BoC governor who has ever admittedly raised the target true rate of inflation, by 20 basis points, with the 2016 renewal agreement. So inflation isn’t so low as it seems. Also, as Berman notes, the threat of a housing crash may also keep Poloz from raising rates. The interest rate drop of 50 basis points in 2015 was excessive, and he never raised rates as the economy recovered. If this all ends in tears, Poloz won’t escape the blame for it.