I agree Scheer has many issues and had the party chosen Chong I would think he would be a much greater threat to the Liberals.  I also think Raitt and O'Toole would have done better.  Nonetheless I think Scheer would do better than a Bernier led CPC would.  Scheer is largely unknown and light on policy so less ammo for attack ads than with Bernier.  At the same time nothing really appealing that would win over those who didn't vote Tory last time so he can only succeed if he introduces an Andrew Scheer to the public that is much different or the Liberals make some fatal stupid mistake, neither which are likely, but also still plausible.  I give him a 20% chance of beating Trudeau, whereas I would have given Raitt and O'Toole a 30% and Chong a 40% chance.  Bernier I would only give a 10% chance and Leitch and Trost I would give a 1-2% chance.