It is common in prospectuses to see the qualifier "past results are not a guarantee of future performance".  However, I believe I can predict total market performance over the long term with greater certainty than I can predict the performance of an individual manager. I am more confident that even when markets go down, they will go up ...eventually.  

Summer is coming,  my steaks are out of the freezer, my brain is going "on hold", my money is in index funds.