harris vs trump, who is winning
Sara Dorn
2024-08-15T00:00:00Z
<div><div><h2>Topline</h2>
<p>Polls consistently show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee—with the latest survey showing Harris up four points, the fourth poll this week that found she would beat Trump if the election were held today.</p>
<figure><figcaption><small>Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</small></figcaption></figure> 

<h2>Key Facts</h2>
<div>
 <div>
  <p>Harris leads 50% to 46%, with 5% of voters undecided, in an Emerson College <a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-national-poll-harris-50-trump-46/">poll</a> of 1,000 likely voters released Thursday.</p>
  
 </div>
 <div>
  <p>Just one poll this week, taken by <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-new-matchup-same-result-trump-bests-harris-one-point">Fox News</a> and released Thursday, found Trump leading, 50% to 49%.</p>
  
 </div>
 <div>
  <p>Some 48% of registered voters polled by Monmouth University in a <a href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_081424.pdf/">survey</a> released Wednesday said they will definitely or probably vote for Harris in November, compared to 43% who said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump.</p>
  
 </div>
 <p>An Economist/YouGov <a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_8IEdK8V.pdf#page=9">poll</a> taken Aug. 11-13 also found 46% of registered voters would cast their ballots for Harris, while 44% would vote for Trump in a five-way race with third-party candidates on the ballot.</p>
 <p>The vice president leads Trump 47% to 44% in Morning Consult’s <a href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling">latest poll</a> released Monday, with 4% of registered voters surveyed selecting “someone else” and 4% saying they don’t know—the fourth week in a row Morning Consult’s weekly poll has shown Trump trailing Harris.</p>
 <p>Harris leads in at least three other surveys taken this month: a Reuters/Ipsos <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-by-5-points-ipsos-poll-2024-08-08/">poll</a> released last Thursday found Harris leads 42% to 37%; an NPR/PBS News/Marist <a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-contest-august-2024/">poll</a> released last Tuesday shows her polling 48% to 45% over Trump; she also leads Trump by one point nationally in a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-harris-trump-cbs-news/">CBS News poll</a> released Aug. 4.</p>
 <p>Trump leads Harris in at least eight other polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy.</p>
 <p>Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/us/politics/poll-kamala-harris-donald-trump.html">New York Times/Siena</a> poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/harris-erases-trumps-lead-wsj-poll-finds-e286144d?mod=hp_lead_pos1">Wall Street Journal</a> poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/07/26/trump-leads-harris-by-2-in-harrisxforbes-poll-a-tighter-race-than-week-before/">HarrisX/Forbes</a> online survey released June 26.</p>
</div>


<h2>Big Number</h2>
<p>1. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris">polling average</a>. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/">weighted average</a> shows Harris with a 2.7-point lead.</p>
<h2>Surprising Fact</h2>
<p>The Monmouth University poll found Democratic enthusiasm has <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/08/14/democratic-enthusiasm-nearly-doubles-after-harris-enters-race-poll-finds/">nearly doubled </a>since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.</p>

<h2>How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?</h2>
<p>Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/08/14/election-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-surges-ahead-of-trump-in-nearly-every-battleground/">seven battleground states</a> likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Cook Political Report <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/08/14/election-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-surges-ahead-of-trump-in-nearly-every-battleground/">survey</a> released Wednesday. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied with him in Georgia and is trailing Trump by three points in Nevada, the Cook poll found.</p>
<h2>Contra</h2>
<p>Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio <a href="https://cdn.nucleusfiles.com/9f/9f5bada8-1641-4603-83ad-2e5ef9c481fb/7-23-24-harris-honeymoon.pdf?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=ncl_amplify&amp;utm_campaign=240723-memo_from_trump_campaign_pollster_tony_fabrizio&amp;utm_content=ncl-V3GKvaf7MR&amp;_nlid=V3GKvaf7MR&amp;_nhids=lgxqh3L2j7">predicted</a> a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.</p>
<h2>Key Background</h2>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/21/biden-drops-out-as-democratic-presidential-candidate/">dropped out</a> of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/07/21/kamala-harris-confirms-shes-running-for-president-after-bidens-crucial-endorsement/">immediately endorsed</a> Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call that concluded last week. The following day, Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats hold their convention next week, Aug. 19-22, in Chicago.</p>


<h2>Further Reading</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/22/trumps-lead-over-biden-and-harris-jumped-after-rnc-as-democrats-rush-to-replace-biden/">Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll</a> Finds (Forbes)</p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/22/heres-how-kamala-harris-performs-in-polls-against-trump-as-biden-drops-out-and-endorses-harris/">Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris </a>(Forbes)</p>
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              Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 4 In Latest Survey
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              Breaking

            Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 4 In Latest Survey

                    Sara Dorn
                      Forbes Staff
                    Sara Dorn is a Forbes news reporter who covers politics.
                Following
                Aug 15, 2024,11:34am EDT
              Updated Aug 15, 2024, 11:34am EDT
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            Topline

            Polls consistently show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee—with the latest survey showing Harris up four points, the fourth poll this week that found she would beat Trump if the election were held today.

            Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at a rally in Las Vegas on Saturday, Aug. ... [+] 10, 2024. (Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

            Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

            Key Facts

                Harris leads 50% to 46%, with 5% of voters undecided, in an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters released Thursday.

                Just one poll this week, taken by Fox News and released Thursday, found Trump leading, 50% to 49%.

                Some 48% of registered voters polled by Monmouth University in a survey released Wednesday said they will definitely or probably vote for Harris in November, compared to 43% who said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump.

                An Economist/YouGov poll taken Aug. 11-13 also found 46% of registered voters would cast their ballots for Harris, while 44% would vote for Trump in a five-way race with third-party candidates on the ballot.

                The vice president leads Trump 47% to 44% in Morning Consult’s latest poll released Monday, with 4% of registered voters surveyed selecting “someone else” and 4% saying they don’t know—the fourth week in a row Morning Consult’s weekly poll has shown Trump trailing Harris.

                Harris leads in at least three other surveys taken this month: a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last Thursday found Harris leads 42% to 37%; an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released last Tuesday shows her polling 48% to 45% over Trump; she also leads Trump by one point nationally in a CBS News poll released Aug. 4.

                Trump leads Harris in at least eight other polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy.

                Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 Wall Street Journal poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.

            Big Number

            1. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.7-point lead.

            Surprising Fact

            The Monmouth University poll found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.

            How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

            Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Cook Political Report survey released Wednesday. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied with him in Georgia and is trailing Trump by three points in Nevada, the Cook poll found.

            Contra

            Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.

            Key Background

            Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call that concluded last week. The following day, Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats hold their convention next week, Aug. 19-22, in Chicago.

            Further Reading

            Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)

            Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris (Forbes)

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                    Sara Dorn
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Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up By 4 In Latest Survey
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/08/15/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-up-4-in-latest-survey/
The Hill
2024-08-16T23:39:19Z
<div><div><section><section><div><p>Trump has a 3.3% lead based on 825 polls.</p></div><div><p>Estimate</p><p>95% of polls fall in this range</p></div><div><h5>Polling average unskewer</h5><p> Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points. </p><div><p><span><span>Dem. Bias</span></span><span>No Bias</span><span><span>Rep. Bias</span></span></p></div></div><p><span>A bit of background... </span> The 2024 national popular vote polling average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a significant indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for another presidential election. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, with Biden seeking to continue his leadership and Trump aiming to reclaim the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, flipping key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.</p><p> The polling bias for the <a href="https://www-archive.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx">2016</a> and <a href="https://www-archive.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/2020-Pre-Election-Polling-An-Evaluation-of-the-202.aspx">2020</a> Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/">FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average</a> with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/seats-votes-relationship-in-the-u-s-house-1972-2020/">UVA Center for Politics</a> (2018) and <a href="https://decisiondeskhq.com/the-us-house-was-biased-toward-democrats-in-2022-why-republicans-are-developing-a-geography-problem/">DecisionDeskHQ</a> (2022). </p><div><div><div><p></p><h2>Donald Trump</h2></div><p>Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.</p></div><div><div><p></p><h2>Joe Biden</h2></div><p>Joe Biden is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the 46th President of the United States. Before his presidency, he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. Prior to that, he represented the state of Delaware in the U.S. Senate, holding that seat from 1973 to 2009. Biden's extensive political career has focused on issues such as foreign policy, criminal justice, and civil rights.</p></div></div></section></section><section><section><h2>Related Stories</h2></section></section></div></div>||||I||||      Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

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              Biden vs. Trump polls

              Trump has a 3.3% lead based on 825 polls.

                    Aug 16, 2024

                          Trump

                              46.6 %

                          Biden

                              43.3 %

                    Aug 16, 2024

                          Trump

                              46.6 %

                          Biden

                              43.3 %

                  Estimate

                  95% of polls fall in this range

              Polling average unskewer

              Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

                    Rep. +3.3

                    Original Avg.

                      Dem. Bias No Bias Rep. Bias

                    Rep. +3.3

                    Adjusted Avg.

                      2016 Bias
                      2020 Bias

                    Reset

            A bit of background... The 2024 national popular vote polling average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a significant indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for another presidential election. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, with Biden seeking to continue his leadership and Trump aiming to reclaim the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, flipping key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

                      825 polls

                        Latest Poll: Fri, Aug 16, 4:34 PM EDT

                          Field Dates    Sample    Pollster                 Results           Topline
                                                                                    45.0 %           
                                                                                                     
                                                                                  Trump              
                        Jul 20 – 23    1,115 RV  YouGov/Yahoo News                          TIE      
                                                                                    45.0 %           
                                                                                                     
                                                                                  Biden              
                                                                                                     
                                                                                    48.0 %           
                                                                                                     
                                                                                  Trump              
                        Jul 20 – 22    1,257 RV  Quinnipiac Universit...                    +3 Trump 
                                                                                    45.0 %           
                                                                                                     
                                                                                  Biden              
                                                                                                     
                                                                                    49.0 %           
                                                                                                     
                                                                                  Biden              
                        Jul 20 – 22    982 LV    Echelon Insights                           +1 Biden 
                                                                                    48.0 %           
                                                                                                     
                                                                                  Trump              
                                                                                                     
                        
                        12345

                    + More Polls

              The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

                      Donald Trump

                    Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.

                      Joe Biden

                    Joe Biden is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the 46th President of the United States. Before his presidency, he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. Prior to that, he represented the state of Delaware in the U.S. Senate, holding that seat from 1973 to 2009. Biden's extensive political career has focused on issues such as foreign policy, criminal justice, and civil rights.

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Biden vs. Trump polls - The Hill and DDHQ
https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/biden-trump-general/