Beyond the Cusp

December 20, 2015

Why Iranian Nuclear Program Matters
















Beyond the Cusp


August 18, 2015

Parliament and Assembly of Experts


Nobody is asking President Obama or Secretary of State Kerry what the United States is going to do once Russia, China, European Union, United Nation and the rest of the world have all already dropped their sanctions and are ready to deal and Iran rejects the deal, what is next? Surely the Iranians know that it is business as usual as soon as a signing date has been suggested for officially lifting all sanctions making Iran officially open for business. There will not be any manner or way the P5+1, United Nations or other entity will be capable of putting the cork back in the bottle and keeping the Djinni trapped inside; it will have been free and its bargain time opening Iran for business. All Iran need do is coast with all signs being that their Parliament and Assembly of Experts all approving the deal with each level having a smaller and smaller majority where at the second highest level of governance, the Assembly of Experts, a group of Imams and Mullahs who are tasked with the most important of tasks, appointing Supreme Leaders when necessitated and advising the current Supreme Leader. With the public image of Iran all reportedly approving the Nuclear Deal and even the United States straggling in after the political theater has run its course, the only individual who will have held decisive commentary will be the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.


Whereas the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had commented being not that thrilled with the deal and potentially disapproving the deal, he still will have not given his final word. The morning of the signing is at hand and it is scheduled to be the pinnacle event at the opening of the General Assembly opening ceremonies. This event is so big that it has totally eclipsed the Palestinian annual demand for statehood, even the nuclear deal has its bonuses, and the Presidents and Prime Minister from all six nations which made up the P5+1 negotiations. This includes Prime Minister of Britain David Cameron, Premier of China Li Keqiang, President of France François Hollande, President of Russia Vladimir Putin, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, President of the United States Barack Obama, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani are all gathered for the events in New York City at the United Nations building at Turtle Bay and it is just minutes away from the final signing of the deal. The speeches have been given and the leaders all are ready to sign the official treaty. One by one they sign the document each attempting to look and appear regal while signing the treaty placed approximately at hip level while standing before the wide podium holding the treaty. Only two signatures remain, President Barack Obama’s and President Hassan Rouhani’s. President Obama steps up and signs the treaty then makes his way to the speaker’s podium and gives a brief few words about the momentous occasion and the promising future this document promises, unusual for the President, and finishes his speech signaling to his Iranian counterpart and states, ‘With the signature of this treaty Iran will reenter the community of nations with the promise of cooperation, moderation and an outlook which will fill the world with hope, President Rouhani.’


President Obama entices the Iranian leader to approach and sign the treaty with a grand sweeping motion extending his arm with an open hand. Iranian President Rouhani steps up next to the President who steps back one step allowing the Iranian leader the microphone. President Rouhani’s speech is even more to the point and brief, ‘I am here today representing the people of Iran and the determined desires of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,’ President Rouhani then steps two steps to his left and deliberately bends and snatches the parchment from the signing podium and tears it in halves, then halves again and again and one last time in halves throwing the sixteen squared tears out onto the floor before a room filled with horrified leaders all at a loss for what just occurred. The tension is felt throughout the room, the fears felt around the world as they watch live on televisions and jaws drop as the Iranian President stalks from the room leaving a silence so deafening it would swallow any sound made anyway. Slowly the room of world leaders, diplomats and select media gather their wits. Cameramen turn their lenses to the anchor reporter assigned to cover this historic event and the anchors are still gathering their wits. Only Jon Stewart reacts spontaneously and immediately covering the event for the Comedy Channel who immediately blurts out, ‘Well, there goes Obama’s legacy, imagine that, his entire legacy lying on the floor in sixteen torn shreds of parchment that he fought Congress over as if it would matter, never mind!’


The reality is this is this situation is quite likely if one feels the pulse coming from Iran. There are demonstrations against the deal and many in the Parliament and other positions which merit coverage claiming that the deal is insulting and damages the Iranian image and that going through with the deal will simply humiliate Iran, something almost every Iranian would agree is not something at all desirable, though there might be as many reasons that could be seen as bad as there exist political outlooks, still all want their country seen as strong and reliable. The troubling signs in Iran is the higher one looks for clues across the numerous power structures. The vision as one climbs higher gets increasingly negative towards the Nuclear deal. Many in Iran view any limitations on their nuclear program as an insult and the demands for snap, invasive and unannounced inspections as mistrust and equates their leaders as being untrustworthy and calling everybody in Iran to be deceivers. There exists rejection for the nuclear deal in Iran coming largely from the most hardline politically and many of the university students who are of similar political ire being the leaders in the drive to reject the nuclear treaty. These divisions in Iranian society and the fact that the hardline politician and the most radicalized students are the ones being permitted to give voice to their feelings should be found to be quite revealing and perhaps as a portend of coming events.


There is another signal that all may not be going well with the political environment in Iran. Leading in these suspicions that we have been feeling here, goes beyond the rising angst as one climbs the power structures in Iran, is the recent announcement that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is claiming he will run again for the Presidency of Iran, or we wish we could call his political career, Achmed the Dead Terrorist for President. Simply make the required thought changes to the video below replacing Achmed or Achmed the Dead Terrorist with Ahmadinejad or Ahmadinejad for President, you get the idea. Perhaps Ahmadinejad could use some variant of Achmed the Dead Terrorist in a televised campaign ad, but then he might run afoul of the strictness police who would object to such humor.





Meanwhile, news reports are all focused like a laser on Washington D.C. and the debate as to whether the House or Representatives, a given by all accounts, and the Senate will pass a piece of legislation in an attempt to void the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Many are curious why this ‘agreement’ requires legislation to kill it and not a supermajority support in only the Senate to ratify it as the treaty it actually represents. Apparently the Constitution has been tossed aside for the remainder of President Obama’s time in office and may have been considered void by the Administration for some time now. Nobody is focused much on Iran despite the fact that they too are in the middle of an affirmation which actually depends on a single person and his general health both physical and mental on the morning set for the signing, which we have predicted for the opening ceremonies for the General Assembly and its 70th session which starts on Tuesday, September 15, 2015 and lasts until closing on Tuesday, October 6 2015. Since the United States Senate has until September 17, 2015 to decide on the legislation, assuming they pass the legislation negating the agreement, as expected, and the President in turn vetoes and sends it back, then we can bet that the United States very well may not have ended the discussions and votes before the signing ceremony, thus making two nations unannounced about their signing the Nuclear Agreement. Never mind what the United States Congress decides, President Obama will claim he is simply signing the agreement passed by the United Nations Security Council, which is the exact same agreement, and will be seen to be signing for the United States quite possibly despite the subsequent override of his veto if for no other reason than his presumptuous signing despite Congress still having to vote on their override. Such disrespect by the White House might be exactly what the opposition to the Iran Deal might need to use such insult and disregard to garner the likely five votes they will be short of override when passing the legislation in the Senate. It appears to be assumed that the House of Representatives will have sufficient votes to override any veto leaving only the Senate in question.


What will the United States Senate and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both do, approve or veto the Iran Nuclear Weapons Agreement? This may be all the proof that President Obama might need to equate those Senators and Representatives who vote to override his veto with the most hardline individual in Iran, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as both decided to reject the treaty for polar opposite reasons, but why would common sense and the motivation get in the way of a good lynching of President Obama’s opponents in the leftist and mainstream, but I repeat myself, media. One would have to wonder at this point, does the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei actually agree with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the agreement being a poor deal or is it possible for polar opposites to both refuse the same offering but for grandly different reasons?



Netanyahu and Khamenei face off while both mat end up being the two who opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal so precious and treasured by United States President Obama whose legacy depends on the success. What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty




What will follow should Iran refuse to ratify the deal and just walk away and likely soon thereafter quit the NPT, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty? Who could have ever believed that the two standout opponents of the Iran deal could be the two men pictured above? The world keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.


Beyond the Cusp


August 17, 2015

The Best Manner to Destroy the Iran Deal


The first and most important item which our friends in the United States, and for those in the Congress who wish to oppose the Iran deal in the most effective manner still available, is they all need to understand that the United Nations Security Council Resolution has forced the hand of the United States as it passed and was enacted by the United Nations which is binding on the United States as well as the rest of the P5+1 nations and also on the European Union and all the member nations of the United Nations. Thanks to President Obama immediate actions the Congress has been basically relegated impotent when it comes to preventing the adoption of the Iran nuclear deal. Additionally, pursuing rejection of the deal against the Presidential veto, which President Barack Hussein Obama had guaranteed, is an act of pure futility and will simply open those supporting such a move to ridicule when they fail to override the Presidential veto. Even should they override the veto, the President still has the United Nations Security Council vote to implement the end to sanctions and thus again much of the media pointing out the futile waste of time and taxpayer monies by the Republicans and those select Democrats who will meet opposition backed by the party as they face what we here at BTC refer to as the Senator Joe Lieberman treatment. President Obama has taken every possible step to minimize, or even eliminate, the avenues available to the Congress or even the American people from denying the stipulation in the Iranian Nuclear Deal to terminate the sanctions placed on Iran by the United States. So, if anything the Congress can do to prevent the elimination of the existing sanctions, what should they be doing concerning the Iran Nuclear Deal and all its ramifications.


The one thing that might be to the advantage of the Congress might be instead of passing legislation killing the Iran Nuclear Deal as currently in progress, would be to allow the President to have his celebration but to not feed his triumph by passing legislation just to have President Obama veto it in an in your face mode and very publically using the media to emphasize his victory over those luddites and their feeble attempts to prevent moving forward as the Iranian Nuclear Deal allows. Simply do absolutely nothing. That is correct, nothing. Simply allow the discussion over the Iran Nuclear Deal to die a natural death and give the President a temporary victory and prepare to do something constructive and effective. Wait about six weeks until all the fervor dies down and even the longest attention spans have moved to another subject, perhaps Hilary’s e-mails, or Bernie Sanders poll numbers or whatever any of the almost dozen and a half Republican candidates have done to advance or serve a coup de grace on their campaign and may as well pack it up and better luck next time. That may not even take the full six weeks, but wait six weeks just so most everyone will believe that any new sanctions, even if they resemble the previous sanctions, as if anybody would be so knowledgeable to tell, are something being addressed over some great new information about the Iranians breaking their agreement and thus the move to new sanctions. I am sure if one were to discreetly inquire of the Israelis to provide any new information which could be used to grab the attention of the average American, something not overly technical but still a few sprinkles of scientific terms and a few ominous descriptions should be sufficient to give any hearing exactly the force and urgency required for a quick debate and vote. Applying new sanctions, not reapplying the old sanctions that the President so opposed, but new sanctions brought against new violations by Iran in their nuclear program requiring these new sanctions should be an easier sell and would also circumvent the United Nations Security Council Resolution as that was on the old sanctions and not others going forward. Then lobby and get sufficient Democrats’ votes to add to all Republican Congressional members’ votes allowing those Democrats who are hesitant to vote their conscience once there are sufficient votes assuring the new sanctions pass with a veto proof majority.


There should also be efforts to try and get the assurance from members of Congress such that if the President were to oppose the legislation and insult the Congress or otherwise be demeaning in his treatment rather than simply vetoing the legislation quietly and returning it to Congress with his reason for using his veto, then gain their assist in overriding any veto used as a weapon to insult Congress. One could even attempt to gain additional assistance in passing the legislation should the President take overt initiatives to attempt and belittle Congress or threaten any Democrat or others who are supporting new sanctions. If there has to be a fight over sanctions on Iran, make the fight about actual sanctions which are actually able to be applied to the Iranian Nuclear Program. The sanctions could even be targeted should Iran be found to avoiding IAEA inspections or seen to be utilizing every delaying tactic to deny snap inspections or otherwise working to circumvent the terms and stipulations of the Nuclear Deal, something which very likely will be suspected within a few months after the finalization and acceptance of the terms. As the Iranians pose greater and greater resistance against speedy and immediate inspections and refusal to inspection of sites despite sufficient announced inspections schedule then passing new sanctions, should “snap back” sanctions prove impossibly, should be the answer which even President Obama should support, and if not eventually public pressures will either force the President’s hand or that of the necessary members of Congress to override any veto from the White House. Forget kicking a dead horse and instead run down new threats which are sure to come from the Iranian nuclear program in the ensuing months.


Further, the Iranian nuclear program is far from the only activity being pursued by the Iranians which could bring undo attention from Congress as they arm many various terrorist or rebellious groups throughout the Middle East. Then there are the constant threats to Israel and the United States, the attempted subversions against Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Lebanon, Kurdish areas, the GCC nations (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf) and likely far more proliferate meddling once the initial inflowing of funds from the cancellation of the current sanctions and the increased income from new oil and pistachio sales. The reality may be that Iran and new Middle East turmoil may be the surprise influence on the United States elections as Iranian interference could easily begin to take violent and unpredictable turns. Iranian influence arming Hamas could result in Hamas and other supporting terror groups to be instructed to, instead of starting another rocket war with Israel, overthrow the Arab governing bodies in Judea and Samaria. Only then would they be loosed to start a terror war from both the east and the southwest against Israel. Another possibility is that Iran could place sufficient numbers of troops, predominantly from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) in Syria and central and southern Iraq and after destroying the Islamic State then turn their forces on the Kurds or Jordan. Such an assault in any direction would depend on the United States elections and seeing if the new President will turn away from isolationist governance which would bring to an end any Islamic unfettered conquests. Only time will tell whether or not Islamic expansion will come to a definitive end once President Obama leaves office. Exactly what direction Iran will take in the next year plus until the new President is sworn into office is anyone’s guess. With a large influx of funds and their already having placed orders for the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems, one-hundred-fifty Chinese Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics, two-hundred-fifty Russian highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 fighters as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI aircraft refueling tankers they have already bought themselves a modern Air Force. What other purchases Iran makes in the next few months may give a better lead as to what their immediate plans might be in the long run.



Pictured are the weapons systems ordered by Iran against the $150-Billion they are to receive as the sanctions are removed Chinese Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics, Russian highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 fighters, Russian IL78 MKI aircraft refueling tankers and Russian S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems seemingly even if the plan is rejected by the United States, Iran or even France.


Beyond the Cusp



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