Stylized Facts

about former Yugoslav republics economies

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GDP Real Sector

Seasonality analysis of Macedonia quarterly GDP time series




Figure 1 shows Macedonia seasonal and seasonal subseries plots for quarterly GDP time series. There is a jump in GDP in the fourth quarter each year. The seasonal plot also shows that in the first quarter the smallest GDP was recorded.

Seasonal and seasonal subseries plots: GDP (Macedonia)
Figure 1. Seasonal and seasonal subseries plots: GDP (Macedonia)


Seasonal, boxplot, subseries and distribution plots: GDP (Macedonia)
Figure 2. Seasonal, boxplot, subseries and distribution plots: GDP (Macedonia)

p-val: 0 on these plots indicates that the seasonal component was statistically significant. From the seasonal plot we can notice again that the highest GDP was recorded in the fourth quarter. We can also notice that the level of GDP in this quarter decreased until the last few years. This is clear on the seasonal subseries plot where we have a negative trend in GDP in this quarter. GDP in the remaining three quarters stay at approximately same level in the observed period.

From the seasonal boxplot we can identify quarters with highest volatility in GDP: fourth and first quarters. In other two quarters there were less variation in GDP. Seasonal distribution plot is an alternative plot to seasonal boxplot. It also shows level of variation in seasonal component by quarter.


