Oscar picks and predictions


"The Artist"

One of the few good things about a feeble cinematic year is there is no overwhelming favorite set to dominate the 84th Academy Awards. For 2011, things are especially up in the air.

Consider that the two films with the most nominations, "Hugo" with 11 and "The Artist" with 10, have a combined box office total of less than $100 million. The also-ran, "The Descendents" with five nods, barely passed the $70 million mark.

Brisk ticket sales often don't correlate with quality filmmaking -- just look at 10 most popular movies of last year, nine of which were sequels (and the other was "Thor").

But when hardly anyone has seen the films being honored, that makes for little enthusiasm among potential Oscar-watchers. Even with the blessed return of Billy Crystal as emcee, I expect this year's Oscar telecast to be among the lowest-rated.

For those of us who like to see the awards spread around based on actual achievement, rather than following the bandwagon of a swaggering favorite, it's an exciting time.

Here are my predictions of who will win the Academy Award in each category, followed by my personal pick of who I think most deserves the statuette. For fun, I'll also suggest someone who should've been nominated, but wasn't.



Nominees: "War Horse", "The Artist", "Moneyball", "The Descendants", "The Tree of Life", "Midnight in Paris", "The Help", "Hugo", "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"The Artist"
Pick: "The Artist"
What About...: "A Better Life"

Very tough call here. It had appeared to be a two-way race between "The Artist" and "The Descendents," but then "Hugo" popped up in a late rally to take the lead in Oscar nominations. There's no end of love between the Academy and Martin Scorsese, flavored with a dollop of guilt because it took him until late in his career before he finally won an Oscar. But I'm betting my own pick, "The Artist," will follow in the footsteps of "The Hurt Locker," and the Academy will vote its conscience for a little film that truly is the best of the year. An even littler film that hardly anyone saw is the wonderful immigration drama, "A Better Life."

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius ("The Artist")
Pick: Hazanavicius
What About...: Pedro Almodóvar ("The Skin I Live In")

It appears the director of "The Artist" will pick up the directing Oscar, and he deserves to. Hazanavicius won the Director's Guild prize, which has proven one of the most reliable bellwethers for the Academy Awards. Though, as noted above, the chance for a Scorsese upset is never to be discounted. Spanish auteur deserved more love for "The Skin I Live In," his most dazzling movie in at least a decade.


Jean Dujardin

Winner: Jean Dujardin ("The Artist")
Pick: Brad Pitt ("Moneyball")
What About...:Michael Shannon ("Take Shelter")

This category is as interesting for who was left off the list as who will win. There was much gnashing of teeth about Michael Fassbender ("Shame") and Leonardo DiCaprio ("J. Edgar") being passed over. But the most worthy snubee was Shannon in "Take Shelter." Dujardin of "The Artist" won this prize from the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which usually preludes the Oscars. I would've thought George Clooney was the frontrunner for his game-changing role in "The Descendents;" the Hollywood establishment adores him. For my money, I thought Pitt gave the performance of his career in "Moneyball."

Nominees: Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"; Viola Davis, "The Help"; Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"; Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"
Winner: Viola Davis ("The Help")
Pick: Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady")
What About...: Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin")

Octavia Spencer and Viola Davis in "The Help"

Davis of "The Help" seems to have this award wrapped up, despite early frontrunners status by Streep. It's a familiar spot for the grand dame, who always seems to get passed by a younger competitor late in the race -- despite 17 nominations, Streep is still looking for her first Oscar win in three decades. The feel-good political correctness of "The Help" seems to be buoying Davis; she would be only the second African-American woman to win this prize. Personally, I thought her role, in both scope and depth, was a supporting one. I have a lot of problems with "We Need to Talk About Kevin" -- starting with that title -- but Swinton is amazing in it.

Winner: Christopher Plummer ("Beginners")
Pick: Plummer
What About...: Andy Serkis ("Rise of the Planet of the Apes")

Plummer, playing a septuagenarian widower who comes out of the closet in "Beginners," has this category totally locked up. A lot of people were angry Albert Brooks wasn't nominated for his turn as a gregariously malevolent mobster in "Drive," but from my perspective it was just Brooks doing a very good Brooks impression ... with razors. Serkis, whose digitally augmented performance carried "Rise of the Planet of the Apes," practically needs his own category.

Nominees: Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"; Jessica Chastain, "The Help"; Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids" ; Octavia Spencer, "The Help; Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Winner: Octavia Spencer ("The Help")
Pick: Spencer
What About...: Jessica Chastain ("The Help")

Another foregone conclusion: Spencer took a role in "The Help" that had been custom-written for her by a friend and knocked it out of the park, with sass and soul. Ironic that Chastain was nominated for "The Help," when she was so much better in several other roles during a fantastic breakout year, including "The Tree of Life," "Coriolanus" and "The Debt." Her turn as a supportive but realistic housewife in "Take Shelter" was probably her best.



Nominees: "A Cat in Paris", "Chico & Rita", "Kung Fu Panda 2", "Puss in Boots", "Rango"
Winner: "Kung Fu Panda 2"
Pick: "Rango"
What About...:"The Adventures of Tintin"

Astonishing that "Tintin," Steven Spielberg's first animated film, was not nominated. It's not a great movie, but head and shoulders above limp sequels "Puss in Boots" and "Kung Fu Panda 2." Something tells me, though, that one or the other will win -- the history of this relatively young category runs more toward "most popular" than "best." "Rango" was clearly the latter.

Nominees: "The Artist" Written by Michel Hazanavicius; "Bridesmaids" Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig; "Margin Call" Written by J.C. Chandor; "Midnight in Paris" Written by Woody Allen; "A Separation" Written by Asghar Farhadi
Winner: "The Artist"
Pick: "The Artist"
What About...: "Rango"

Many were overjoyed about "Bridesmaids" picking up a screenwriting nomination, but for me it falls into that category of movies that aren't nearly as funny as they seem to think they are. Plus, say what you will, it was a knockoff of "The Hangover." Michel Hazanavicius, who wrote and directed "The Artist," came up with the most truly inventive and fresh story of the year. The only challenger for sheer originality would be the wonderfully weird "Rango," but animated films rarely get nominated for writing.

Nominees: "The Descendants" Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash; "Hugo" Screenplay by John Logan; "The Ides of March" Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon; "Moneyball" Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Story by Stan Chervin; "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan
Winner: "The Descendants"
Pick: "Moneyball"
What About...: "The Skin I Live In"

A competitive category with several really strong nominees. It would seem to be between "The Descendants" and "Moneyball." I thought the latter had the screenplay of the year, by script wizards Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. But the screenplay awards tend to be given out as consolation prizes, and I think Alexander Payne will be honored similarly to his last film, "Sideways," which lost out on the biggest prizes but took home the writing statue.

And the rest...

Sure, it's easy enough to make predictions for Best Actor or Best Picture. But what about those smaller, technical awards that are given out when most viewers run to the bathroom or warm up more popcorn? It takes a true prognosticator of mettle and grit to make picks for Best Soundwave Mix Editing. (That's a fake category ... I think.) Here are my stabs in the dark.

Nominees: "The Artist" Guillaume Schiffman; "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Jeff Cronenweth; "Hugo" Robert Richardson; "The Tree of Life" Emmanuel Lubezki; "War Horse" Janusz Kaminski
Winner: "The Artist"
Pick: "Hugo"

I have plenty of reservations about "Hugo," but not its gorgeous look courtesy of Robert Richardson. I have no complaints, though, about Guillaume Schiffman's vivid black-and-white photography winning for "The Artist."

Nominees: "The Artist," Production Design: Laurence Bennett, Set Decoration: Robert Gould; "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2," Production Design: Stuart Craig, Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan"; "Hugo," Production Design: Dante Ferretti, Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo; "Midnight in Paris," Production Design: Anne Seibel, Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil; "War Horse," Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Winner: "Hugo"
Pick: "Hugo"

Nominees: "Anonymous" Lisy Christl; "The Artist" Mark Bridges; "Hugo" Sandy Powell; "Jane Eyre" Michael O'Connor; "W.E." Arianne Phillips
Winner: "The Artist"
Pick: "Anonymous"

Nominees: "The Artist" Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius; "The Descendants" Kevin Tent; "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall; "Hugo" Thelma Schoonmaker; "Moneyball" Christopher Tellefsen
Winner: "The Artist"
Pick: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

Nominees: "Hell and Back Again" Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner, "If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front" Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman; "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs; "Pina" Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel; "Undefeated" TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas
Winner: "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory"

Nominees: "The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement" Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin; "God Is the Bigger Elvis" Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson; "Incident in New Baghdad" James Spione; "Saving Face" Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy; "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen
Winner: "Incident in New Baghdad"

Nominees: "Dimanche/Sunday" Patrick Doyon; "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg; "La Luna" Enrico Casarosa; "A Morning Stroll" Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe; "Wild Life" Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
Winner: "La Luna"

Nominees: "Pentecost" Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane; "Raju" Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren; "The Shore" Terry George and Oorlagh George; "Time Freak" Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey; "Tuba Atlantic" Hallvar Witzø
Winner: "Raju"
Pick: "The Shore"


"A Separation"

Nominees: "Bullhead" Belgium; "Footnote" Israel; "In Darkness" Poland; "Monsieur Lazhar" Canada; "A Separation" Iran
Winner:"A Separation"

Nominees: "Albert Nobbs" Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle; "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"; Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng ; "The Iron Lady" Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
Winner: "Albert Nobbs"
Pick: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"

Nominees: "The Adventures of Tintin" John Williams; "The Artist" Ludovic Bource; "Hugo" Howard Shore; "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Alberto Iglesias; "War Horse" John Williams
Winner: "The Artist"
Pick: "The Artist"

Nominees: "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie; "Real in Rio" from "Rio" Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett
Winner: "Man or Muppet" ("The Muppets")
Pick: "Man or Muppet"

In an embarrassing occurrence, only two songs were nominated this year -- a clear indication of how weak the field was. How we miss you, Howard Ashman.

Nominees: "Drive" Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis; "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Ren Klyce; "Hugo" Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty; "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl; "War Horse" Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom
Winner: "War Horse"
Pick: "Drive"

Nominees: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson; "Hugo" Tom Fleischman and John Midgley; "Moneyball" Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick; "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin; "War Horse" Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson
Winner: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Pick: "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

Nominees: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson; "Hugo" Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning; "Real Steel" Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg; "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett; "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier
Winner: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
Pick: "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"

7 p.m. Sunday (Feb. 26). On ABC. oscars.go.com.
Last modified: February 24, 2012