And if wind speeds increase to more than 74 mph, it is called a tropical cyclone or hurricane. Hurricanes do not occur within 300 miles (500 kilometers) of the equator because there is no Coriolis Effect at the equator.
The latest forecast for Hurricane Joaquin puts it on an unnerving path toward the East Coast, but the track is far from certain right now. The weather models are in an epic tug-of-war right now, and because of this, there is considerable uncertainty in whether or not Hurricane Joaquin will hit the United States or go out to sea.
Joaquin quickly strengthened into a hurricane on Tuesday night once wind shear subsided and the storm could organize itself.
The cone of uncertainty is that ghost-like cone that radiates out from the forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center.
As you get farther out in the forecast period (12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, 120 hours), the average error in their forecast grows by several dozen miles each step.
The National Hurricane Center has lower-than-normal confidence in the track Joaquin will take due to the models struggling with the forces at play, so anyone in or around the cone of uncertainty needs to pay close attention to the storm. However, when you look at the spaghetti plots (above), it would be irresponsible to hug the Euro (despite its track record) and ignore everything else pointing Joaquin toward the East Coast. The National Weather Service has ordered weather balloon launches every six hours (instead of the normal interval of twelve), in addition to hurricane hunter flights flying into the storm and upper-air reconnaissance by Gulfstream jets flying through the atmosphere around the hurricane. Scope out flood-prone roads on your daily route before the rain starts, and stay home as often as possible during bouts of heavy rain. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. Hurricane disasters can occur whether the season is active or relatively quiet. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
The 2013 seasonal hurricane outlook reflects a combination of climate factors that have historically produced above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. This combination of climate factors historically produces above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. Note that the expected ranges are centered well above the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
This Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated in early August, which coincides with the onset of the peak months of the hurricane season. While NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook, the historical likelihood for multiple U.S. Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance. The 2013 seasonal hurricane outlook reflects a combination of climate factors which have historically produced above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity. The second factor guiding this outlook is the expectation of above-average SSTs across the MDR during much of the hurricane season.
The combination of a high-activity era, above-average Atlantic SSTs, and ENSO-neutral historically produces active or very active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Atlantic hurricane seasons exhibit extended periods lasting decades (25-40 years) of generally above-normal or below-normal activity. When you live and play in paradise, Mother Nature occasionally likes to remind you that the same forces that created the comfortable climate and lush landscape can damage them, as well. Ed Rappaport, left, assistant director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, discusses tropical weather with Irene Toner, Monroe County emergency management director and Monroe County Administrator Roman Gastesi.
The Monroe County (Florida Keys) Tourist Development Council (TDC) has a formal communications program that is tightly coordinated with local emergency management officials to provide crucial information to help visitors safely exit the Florida Keys in the event a hurricane threatens the region. The TDC's visitor safety program has been a model for other destinations in hurricane-prone regions. The tourism development council has developed a list of Frequently Asked Questions to provide factual information about hurricanes and how to safely and conveniently travel during the summer and fall. Although hurricane forecasting has improved each year, it is still an inexact science, especially when the storm is more than three days away.
Because hurricane forecasting is not an exact science, NHC forecast tracks of the center line have high error rates, especially forecasts issued more than three days ahead of a potential strike. The primary purpose of the four- and five-day track forecast map is that the hurricane center wants people to simply be aware of the storm and to begin thinking how they will react in the event it continues to proceed in their direction. Throughout the summer and fall, Keys emergency management officials keep in constant touch with the National Hurricane Center, based in Miami. If a visitor evacuation order is necessary, officials strive to issue it early in the morning to provide ample time to make alternative travel arrangements. Visitors are asked to leave the Keys during any category storm while residents are mandated to leave during a severe hurricane of Category 3 or higher. In the event a hurricane does impact the Keys, there is high likelihood of power outages, temporarily impassable roads and airports that will be temporarily out of service. Historically, a hurricane only impacts the Keys once in four to five evacuations because the forecast error track rate (the projected path of the storm) is so great at the time of the evacuation order. When I see a satellite picture of a hurricane, it looks like a very large area is being affected.
The hurricane just makes things worse, and even if the storm stays away from land, flooding rains are still likely.
The 2:00 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows that Joaquin now has 85 MPH winds, and it will probably strengthen into a major hurricane over the next two days as it slowly turns toward the north near the Bahamas.
The storm is slowly drifting toward the southwest this afternoon, but that will change soon once that trough draws close enough to force it to make a sharp northward turn.
Make sure you have enough non-perishable food and bottled water to last everyone in your household a week or longer. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions.
Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity.
And the Keys tourism council has a formal communications program, in cooperation with emergency officials, to let visitors know of any need to evacuate. There is no need to panic, however, visitors are urged to follow emergency directives in a timely manner.

As hurricane forecasting advances, that rate should decrease and hopefully diminish unnecessary evacuations. You need to prepare now for a significant, potentially life-threatening weather event later this week and this weekend.
The exact track of the storm will change as models and forecasters get a better handle on the atmosphere and what the storm will do.
The Euro has a stellar track record, especially when it comes to hurricanes, so a big reason for the uncertainty is that the Euro is showing such a dramatically different solution than many of the other big models.
Chelliah, 2006: Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multi-decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. It was the first time in the 30-year history of the National Hurricane Conference's awards program that a tourism entity was honored.
During the past 100 years, the historical average frequency of a hurricane impacting somewhere in the state of Florida is once every two years. Furthermore, most, if not all visitor facilities will not be open, as their owners make hurricane preparations.
Typically, hurricane-force winds usually emanate anywhere from 40 to 50 miles from the center, according to the National Hurricane Center. Here are some things you need to keep in mind as you get ready for whatever is going to happen later this week and this weekend. Nothing on the other side of a flood is worth risking your life or the lives of those around you. In the Keys, the historical 100-year average frequency of a hurricane of any category impacting is one in every 4.5 years. Prior to making a reservation, it is prudent for the visitor to have a clear understanding about a particular lodging facility's refund policies in the event of a hurricane threat. So even in 2004, when four highly publicized hurricanes impacted Florida, more than two-thirds of the state never experienced hurricane-force winds.
In the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, once the winds reach 74 mph, the system is called a hurricane. Historically, the chances are excellent that your Keys vacation will not be interrupted by a hurricane.
The TDC surveys transportation companies to determine what is available, and passes that information via advisories to accommodations facilities and posts it on the TDC Web site. Another example was in 1992, when Hurricane Andrew severely impacted southern Miami-Dade County as a Category 5 hurricane.
Make sure you have another way to communicate (and old flip phone or landline) in case something happens to your cell phone. If your power goes out, your car will serve as your giant, expensive phone charger, if nothing else.

Liston college
Federal emergency management agency (fema) national flood insurance program
Fire safe home tips
Emergency preparedness kit for car


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