The Air Force Wants to Kill Old F-15s, F-16s, and A-10s: Part 2

It's time to clear out for the next generation of fighter jets.

The F-35A is proving more expensive to fly than anticipated, forcing the Air Force to consider supplementing it with a cheaper new fighter.
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This is the second part to The Air Force Wants to Kill Old F-15s, F-16s, and A-10s.

Typically, old jets and brand-new jets cost a lot of money to fly, while newer jets cost the least. The Air Force, as the average age of the fleet suggests, has many old fighters. The F-35 is (relatively) new, but still costs a whopping $33,000 an hour to fly—well above the $25,000 an hour target set for 2025. The Air Force doesn’t sound all that hopeful it will reach $25,000, either.

Finally, if the service wants those two brand-new fighters, NGAD and MR-X, in the 2030s, it will need the money to properly develop them.

One possible problem? A reduction in fighter numbers could add a new loop in a long, gradual “death spiral.” A new reduction, coupled with the reduction of the 2010s, would shrink the Air Force’s fighter fleet by 350 planes over 15 years.

Death spirals in military programs occur when procurement and operating costs for next-generation weapons rise beyond initial estimates, forcing the armed services to buy fewer and fewer of them.

The services then console themselves that although they have fewer weapons, each weapon is more effective, so there’s no real loss in capability—except to operate in more places simultaneously and absorb battlefield losses. With each passing generation, the service’s fleet of weapons grows increasingly smaller.

The Air Force says its plans to reduce the fighter fleet are “pre-decisional,” which is Pentagon-speak for, “We haven’t decided yet.” Things could very well go another way: In January, the Air Force was reportedly considering buying more F-16s.


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