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Donald Trump's Negotiating Profile and Its Consequences for US International Relations

Yannis Dimarakis

By November 9th
, we will probably know the name of the next president of the USA. As the polls are not decisive, the statistical probability of Trump winning, is a real one. The negotiating profile of incumbent American presidents is instrumental to the behavior of “the country with the greatest influence on the planet”, on a range of issues, ranging from global challenges like climate change, to regional trouble spots like Syria, North Korea etc.

The negotiating behavior of leaders are illustrative of the way they perceive the world and carry a great impact on the conduct of the nation they lead. In this context, Trump’s negotiating style is dramatically different to that of Obama's. It is therefore worthwhile to take a closer look, as in case he wins, the USA are bound to engage in a conduct that the world is not used to. As explained below, the ramifications of this conduct will be anything between the notable and the dramatic for the world as a whole and Europe in particular.

There are two broad types of negotiating behavior which define the conduct of individuals as well as organizations. These are the “co operative” and the “competitive” types. Nobody falls entirely in one or the other extreme. Most people find their negotiating behavior tilting more or less towards one or the other.


On the issue of immigration stemming from Mexico, he has repeatedly declared that he will build a wall along the boarder that will solve the problem. Further, he has been very consistent in committing himself to make Mexico pay for the construction. When the Mexican president made a statement that his country would never pay for it, Trump’s reaction was that the wall “just got ten feet taller”. Putting the (in)effectiveness of his views aside, the above two examples (Iran and Mexican wall) show that he ignores a fundamental principle of state diplomacy. Irrespective of the final result, negotiations must ensure that all parties involved will get to save face. That even the defeated side will be able to sell a lousy agreement to its internal audience.

Trump carries similar views on nearly all issues pertaining to international affairs. So what effect will such a new player have? First, the USA will be called to handle the reactions of Russia and China, as it is certain that both will be neither impressed nor will be likely to give in to such behavior. Remaining in the realm of the non-friendlies, one cannot rule out extreme reactions from nations that are not controllable and which have or are close to achieving nuclear capabilities. Such nations are North Korea and Iran.  


Moreover it is not certain that all allies will be willing to fall in line with Trump’s choices, decisions and preferred course of action. This may be translated into opportunities for other heavyweights such as Russia and China to enhance their influence in various parts around the globe. Therefore, despite the fact that Trump’s campaign motto is “lets make America great again”, his election may prove to have the exact opposite effect, the shrinking of US influence globally.

If Trump gets elected, all hope to avoid the above ramifications will fall on the US political system (especially the US Congress) and the diplomatic establishment. On the one hand, these two entities are likely to attempt to smooth out, or even negate Trump’s adversarial style, continue to protect international bonds built over decades of hard diplomatic work and remain loyal to the strategic orientation of the country. On the other hand, one should never underestimate the momentum of a newly elected US president. It is therefore possible that we might witness an internal institutional conflict between the Congress and the diplomatic establishment on one side and the presidency on the other.

Trump’s negotiating profile, indicates specific consequences on US international relations. These are not going to be positive or pleasing to most of us. Lets hope that the future will not have to be the judge of the accuracy of the above analysis.

Yannis Dimarakis


This post was orginally published on Linkedin

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