




}, keywords = {{\textquoteright} database projections, 21st century, IPCC, sea level rise}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2018EF000991}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EF000991}, author = {Garner, Andra J. and Weiss, Jeremy L. and Parris, Adam and Kopp, Robert E. and Horton, Radley M. and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Horton, Benjamin P.} } @article {7103, title = {Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, institution = {National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration}, type = {report}, address = {Silver Spring, Maryland}, abstract = {




}, keywords = {Cities, NOAA, sea level rise, United States}, issn = {NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083}, url = {https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Sweet, William V. and Kopp, Robert E. and Weaver, Christopher P. and Obeysekera, Jayantha and Zervas, Chris and Thieler, E. Robert} } @article {6892, title = {The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {144}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-09-2017}, pages = {381 - 388}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {aircraft, airports, climate change}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9}, url = {http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/coffeletal2017aviationtakeoff.pdf}, author = {Coffel, Ethan and Thompson, Terence R. and Horton, Radley M.} } @article {6701, title = {Total and extreme precipitation changes over the Northeastern United States}, journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology}, year = {2017}, month = {Apr-20-2017}, abstract = {

The Northeastern United States has experienced a large increase in precipitation over recent decades. Annual and seasonal changes of total and extreme precipitation from station observations in the Northeast are assessed over multiple time periods spanning 1901{\textendash}2014. Spatially averaged, both annual total and extreme precipitation across the Northeast have increased significantly since 1901, with changepoints occurring in 2002 and 1996, respectively. Annual extreme precipitation has experienced a larger increase than total precipitation; extreme precipitation from 1996{\textendash}2014 was 53\% higher than from 1901{\textendash}1995. Spatially, coastal areas received more total and extreme precipitation on average, but increases across the changepoints are distributed fairly uniformly across the domain. Increases in annual total precipitation across the 2002 changepoint have been driven by significant total precipitation increases in fall and summer, while increases in annual extreme precipitation across the 1996 changepoint have been driven by significant extreme precipitation increases in fall and spring. The ability of gridded observed and reanalysis precipitation data to reproduce station observations was also evaluated. Gridded observations perform well in reproducing averages and trends of annual and seasonal total precipitation, but extreme precipitation trends show significantly different spatial and domain-averaged trends than station data. North American Regional Reanalysis generally underestimates annual and seasonal total and extreme precipitation means and trends relative to station observations, and also shows substantial differences in the spatial pattern of total and extreme precipitation trends within the Northeast.

}, keywords = {annual, climate change, precipitation, seasonal}, issn = {1525-755X}, doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0195.1}, url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0195.1}, author = {Huang, Huanping and Winter, Jonathan M. and Osterberg, Erich C. and Horton, Radley M. and Beckage, Brian} } @article {6311, title = {Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, year = {2016}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {climate, climate-change ecology, climate-change impacts, Projection and prediction, sea level rise}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate2957}, url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2957.html}, author = {E. Lentz and Thieler, E. Robert and Plant, Nathaniel G. and Stippa, Sawyer R. and Horton, Radley M. and Gesch, Dean B.} } @article {6633, title = {A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events}, journal = {Current Climate Change Reports}, volume = {2}, year = {2016}, month = {Jan-12-2016}, pages = {242 - 259}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {Extreme heat, Heat events, Heatwaves, Summer heat}, doi = {10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Mankin, Justin S. and Lesk, Corey and Coffel, Ethan and Raymond, Colin} } @article {6785, title = {Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, year = {2015}, month = {Sep-09-2016}, pages = {1114 - 1120}, abstract = {

Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere{\textendash}ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080{\textendash}2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986{\textendash}2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th{\textendash}90th percentile range 4{\textendash}75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35{\textendash}350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end FI projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25\%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

}, keywords = {climate change, sea level rise}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate2801}, url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2801}, author = {Little, Christopher M. and Horton, Radley M. and Kopp, Robert E. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Villarini, Gabriele} } @article {1617, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report, Chapter 1: Climate Observations and Projections}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, pages = {18 - 35}, abstract = {Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region{\textquoteright}s vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.}, keywords = {climate projections, impacts of global change, observed climate}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12586}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Daniel A. Bader and Kushnir, Yochanan and Little, Christopher and Blake, Reginald and Rosenzweig, Cynthia} } @article {1619, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Chapter 2: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, year = {2015}, month = {01/2015}, pages = {36 - 44}, abstract = {New York City{\textquoteright}s low-lying areas are home to a large population, critical infrastructure, and iconic natural, economic and cultural resources. These areas are currently exposed to coastal flooding by warm-season tropical storms such as Hurricane Sandy (Box 2.1) and cold-season nor{\textquoteright}easters. Sea level rise increases the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding. For example, the \~{}12 inches of sea level rise in New York City since 1900 may have expanded Hurricane Sandy{\textquoteright}s flood area by approximately 25 square miles, flooding the homes of more than 80,000 additional people in New York and New Jersey alone (Climate Central 2013, as reported in Miller et al., 2013; see also Chapter 3, NPCC, 2015). This chapter presents an overview of observed sea level rise and coastal storms for the New York metropolitan region, sea level rise projection methods and results, coastal storm projections, and recommendations for future research.}, keywords = {impacts of global change, oceans, sea-level change}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12593}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Little, Christopher and Gornitz, Vivien and Daniel A. Bader and Oppenheimer, Michael} } @article {7151, title = {Open-File Report:Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods}, year = {2015}, month = {13-Feb-2015}, abstract = {

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Cities, coastal, northeast, sea level rise}, doi = {10.3133/ofr20141252}, url = {http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1252/}, author = {Lentz, Erika E. and Stippa, Sawyer R. and Thieler, E. Robert and Plant, Nathaniel G. and Gesch, Dean B. and Horton, Radley M.} } @article {1835, title = {Projected changes in extreme temperature events based on the NARCCAP model suite}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {42}, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, pages = {7722-7731}, abstract = {

Once-per-year (annual) maximum temperature extremes in North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models are projected to increase more (less) than mean daily maximum summer temperatures over much of the eastern (western) United States. In contrast, the models almost everywhere project greater warming of once-per-year minimum temperatures as compared to mean daily minimum winter temperatures. Under projected changes associated with extremes of the temperature distribution, Baltimore{\textquoteright}s maximum temperature that was met or exceeded once per year historically is projected to occur 17 times per season by midcentury, a 28\% increase relative to projections based on summer mean daily maximum temperature change. Under the same approach, historical once-per-year cold events in Baltimore are projected to occur once per decade. The models are generally able to capture observed geopotential height anomalies associated with temperature extremes in two subregions. Projected changes in extreme temperature events cannot be explained by geopotential height anomalies or lower boundary conditions as reflected by soil moisture anomalies or snow water equivalent.

}, keywords = {climate change and variability, climate dynamics, impacts of global change, regional modeling}, doi = {10.1002/2015GL064914}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Coffel, Ethan and Winter, Jonathan M. and Daniel A. Bader} } @article {1304, title = {Beyond Hurricane Sandy: What Might the Future Hold for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic?}, journal = {Journal of Extreme Events}, volume = {01}, year = {2014}, month = {08/2014}, pages = {1450007}, abstract = {Coastal communities are beginning to understand that sea level rise is projected to dramatically increase the frequency of coastal flooding. However, deep uncertainty remains about how tropical cyclones may change in the future. The North Atlantic has historically been responsible for the majority of global tropical cyclone economic losses, with Hurricane Sandy{\textquoteright}s approximately USD$70 billion price tag providing a recent example. The North Atlantic has experienced an upward trend in both total tropical cyclones (maximum sustained winds > 18 m/s) and major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds > 50 m/s) in recent decades. While it remains unclear how much of this trend is related to anthropogenic warming, and how tropical cyclone risk may change in the future, the balance of evidence suggests that the strongest hurricanes may become more frequent and intense in the future, and that rainfall associated with tropical cyclones may increase as well. These projections, along with sea level rise and demographic trends, suggest vulnerability to tropical cyclones will increase in the future, thus requiring major coastal adaptation initiatives.}, keywords = {climate change, coastal flooding, Hurricane Sandy, resilience, tropical cyclones}, issn = {2345-7376}, doi = {10.1142/S2345737614500079}, url = {http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2345737614500079?src=recsys\&}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Liu, Jiping} } @article {1260, title = {Ch. 16: Northeast. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment}, year = {2014}, pages = {371-395}, institution = {U.S. Global Change Research Program}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, doi = {10.7930/J0SF2T3P}, url = {http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northeast}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Yohe, Gary and Easterling, W. and Kates, R. and Ruth, M. and Sussman, E. and Whelchel, A. and Wolfe, D. and Lipschultz, F.}, editor = {Melillo, Jerry M. and Richmond, Terese (T.C.) and Yohe, Gary} } @article {1476, title = {Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation}, journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society}, year = {2014}, month = {11/2014}, pages = {141110132250008}, abstract = {

Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed (Anderson 1999). For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some (Scherer and Diffenbaugh 2013; Donat et al. 2013; IPCC 2012). These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-200\% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario (Moss et al. 2010). These performance reductions may have a negative economic effect on the airline industry. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change (National Research Council 2008; US Global Change Research Program 2009), but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation. Planning for changes in extreme heat events will help the aviation industry to reduce its vulnerability to this aspect of climate change.

}, keywords = {climate change, Economic value, Extreme events, Societal impacts}, issn = {1948-8335}, doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00026.1}, author = {Coffel, Ethan and Horton, Radley M.} } @article {1428, title = {Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities}, journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health}, volume = {11}, year = {2014}, month = {11/2014}, pages = {11371 - 11383}, abstract = {Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.}, keywords = {climate change, extreme temperatures, heat impacts, heat-related mortality, United States}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph111111371}, author = {Petkova, Elisaveta and Daniel A. Bader and Anderson, G. and Horton, Radley M. and Knowlton, Kim and Kinney, Patrick} } @article {1312, title = {Impacts of Projected Climate Change over the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, volume = {53}, year = {2014}, month = {08/2014}, pages = {1861 - 1875}, abstract = {The Lake Champlain basin is a critical ecological and socioeconomic resource of the northeastern United States and southern Quebec, Canada. While general circulation models (GCMs) provide an overview of climate change in the region, they lack the spatial and temporal resolution necessary to fully anticipate the effects of rising global temperatures associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Observed trends in precipitation and temperature were assessed across the Lake Champlain basin to bridge the gap between global climate change and local impacts. Future shifts in precipitation and temperature were evaluated as well as derived indices, including maple syrup production, days above 32.2{\textdegree}C (90{\textdegree}F), and snowfall, relevant to managing the natural and human environments in the region. Four statistically downscaled, bias-corrected GCM simulations were evaluated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to sample the uncertainty in future climate simulations. Precipitation is projected to increase by between 9.1 and 12.8 mm yr-1 decade-1 during the twenty-first century while daily temperatures are projected to increase between 0.43{\textdegree} and 0.49{\textdegree}C decade-1. Annual snowfall at six major ski resorts in the region is projected to decrease between 46.9\% and 52.4\% by the late twenty-first century. In the month of July, the number of days above 32.2{\textdegree}C in Burlington, Vermont, is projected to increase by over 10 days during the twenty-first century.}, keywords = {climate change, Climate models, Climate prediction, Climate records, North America, Societal impacts}, issn = {1558-8432}, doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0338.1}, author = {Guilbert, Justin and Beckage, Brian and Winter, Jonathan M. and Horton, Radley M. and Perkins, Timothy and Bomblies, Arne} } @article {1310, title = {Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites}, journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future}, volume = {2}, year = {2014}, month = {08/2014}, pages = {383 - 406}, abstract = {Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90\% probability) GSL rise of 0.5{\textendash}1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4{\textendash}0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3{\textendash}0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of {\textquotedblleft}1-in-10{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}1-in-100{\textquotedblright} year events.}, keywords = {climate change, coastal flooding, risk analysis, sea level, uncertainty quantification}, doi = {10.1002/2014EF000239}, author = {Kopp, Robert E. and Horton, Radley M. and Little, Christopher M. and Mitrovica, Jerry X. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Rasmussen, D. J. and Strauss, Benjamin H. and Tebaldi, Claudia} } @article {1446, title = {A research and decision support framework to evaluate sea-level rise impacts in the northeastern U.S.}, year = {2014}, institution = {U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center}, address = {Woods Hole, MA}, abstract = {




}, keywords = {climate variability and change, credibility, downscaled projections, quantitative evaluation}, doi = {10.1002/2013EO460005}, author = {Barsugli, Joseph J. and Guentchev, Galina and Horton, Radley M. and Wood, Andrew and Mearns, Linda O. and Liang, Xin-Zhong and Winkler, Julie A. and Dixon, Keith and Hayhoe, Katharine and Rood, Richard B. and Goddard, Lisa and Ray, Andrea and Buja, Lawrence and Caspar Ammann} } @article {1085, title = {Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast}, journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health}, volume = {10}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, pages = {6734 - 6747}, abstract = {Increased heat-related mortality is projected to be among the major impacts of climate change on human health, and the United States urban Northeast region is likely to be particularly vulnerable. In support of regional adaptation planning, quantitative information is needed on potential future health responses at the urban and regional scales. Here, we present future projections of heat-related mortality in Boston, New York and Philadelphia utilizing downscaled next-generation climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC){\textquoteright}s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Our analyses reveal that heat-related mortality rates per 100,000 of population during the baseline period between 1985 and 2006 were highest in Philadelphia followed by New York City and Boston. However, projected heat-related mortality rates in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were highest in New York City followed by Philadelphia and Boston. This study may be of value in developing strategies for reducing the future impacts of heat and building climate change resilience in the urban Northeast region.}, keywords = {Boston, climate change, heat-related mortality, New York, Philadelphia}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph10126734}, author = {Petkova, Elisaveta and Horton, Radley M. and Daniel A. Bader and Kinney, Patrick} } @article {1021, title = {Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan, New~York}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {3}, year = {2013}, month = {5/2013}, pages = {717 - 721}, abstract = {

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

}, keywords = {climate change impact analysis, temperature-related mortality, urban planning}, issn = {1758-6798}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate1902}, author = {Li, Tiantian and Horton, Radley M. and Kinney, Patrick L.} } @article {669, title = {Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the U.S. northeast}, journal = {Global and Planetary Change}, volume = {100}, year = {2013}, month = {1/2013}, pages = {320 - 332}, abstract = {Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1-8{\textdegree} spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.}, keywords = {bias correction, climate change impact analysis, extreme climate index, statistical downscaling}, issn = {09218181}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.003}, author = {Ahmed, Kazi Farzan and Wang, Guiling and Silander, John and Wilson, Adam M. and Allen, Jenica M. and Horton, Radley M. and Anyah, Richard} } @article {568, title = {Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO}, year = {2012}, institution = {U.S. Global Change Research Program - National Climate Assessment}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {climate science, coastal flooding, coastal management, physical coastal processes, sea level rise}, url = {http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevel/}, author = {Parris, A. and P. Bromirski and V. Burkett and D. Cayan and M. Culver and J. Hall and Horton, Radley M. and K. Knuuti and R. Moss and J. Obeysekera and A. Sallenger} } @article {556, title = {Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year = {2012}, abstract = {While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades, anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.}, keywords = {anomalies, ccm3, circulation, climate impacts, community atmosphere model, cover, north-atlantic sst, PART I, Temperature}, issn = {1091-6490}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1114910109}, author = {Liu, J. and Curry, J. A. and Wang, H. and Song, M. and Horton, Radley M.} } @inbook {580, title = {Climate Adaptation Guidebook for New York State}, booktitle = {Responding To Climate Change In New York State: The CLIMAID Integrated Assessment For Effective Climate Change Adaptation In New York State: Final Report}, series = {Book Series: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ~~}, volume = {1244}, year = {2011}, publisher = {BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, OSNEY MEAD}, organization = {BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, OSNEY MEAD}, chapter = {Climate Adaptation Guidebook for New York State}, address = {OXFORD OX2 0EL, ENGLAND}, abstract = {Climate change is already beginning to affect the people and resources of New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the potential capacity to address many climate-related risks, thereby reducing nega- tive impacts and taking advantage of possible opportunities. ClimAID: The Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State was undertaken to provide decision-makers with cutting-edge information on the state{\textquoteright}s vulnerability to climate change and to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and scientific knowledge. This state-level assessment of climate change impacts is specifically geared to assist in the development of adaptation strategies. It acknowledges the need to plan for and adapt to climate change impacts in a range of sectors: Water Resources, Coastal Zones, Ecosystems, Agriculture, Energy, Transporta- tion, Telecommunications, and Public Health. The author team for the report is composed of university and research scientists who are specialists in climate change science, impacts, and adaptation. To ensure that the information provided would be relevant to decisions made by public and private sector practitioners, stakeholders from state and local agencies, non-profit organizations, and the business community partici-pated in the process as well. This Guidebook will help develop climate change adaptation strategies using a risk management approach. The larger techni-cal report provides useful information to decision-makers, such as state officials, city planners, water and energy managers, farmers, business owners, and others as they begin responding to climate change in New York State.}, keywords = {adaptation strategies, climate-related risks}, isbn = {978-1-57331-876-1}, issn = {0077-8923}, author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and DeGaetano, A and Solecki, W. and Horton, Radley M. and O{\textquoteright}Grady, M and Daniel A. Bader}, editor = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Solecki, W. and DeGaetano, A and OGrady, M and Hassol, S} } @article {554, title = {Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, volume = {50}, year = {2011}, month = {11/2011}, pages = {2247 - 2266}, abstract = {This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections that was developed as part of New York City{\textquoteright}s climate change adaptation process and that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well versed in risk management, helped to preselect the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure and requested a projection range rather than a single "most likely" outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and is consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 GCMs and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-yr average future time slices relative to a 30-yr model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. On the basis of these methods, the current 1-in-10-year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme-event frequency are highly uncertain.}, keywords = {21st-century, circulation model output, ice sheets, ocean circulation, precipitation, satellite, Sea-level rise, simulations, UNCERTAINTY, VARIABILITY}, issn = {1558-8432}, doi = {10.1175/2011JAMC2521.1}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Gornitz, Vivien and Daniel A. Bader and Ruane, Alex C. and Goldberg, Richard and Rosenzweig, Cynthia} } @inbook {582, title = {Climate Risks}, booktitle = {Responding To Climate Change In New York State: The CLIMAID Integrated Assessment For Effective Climate Change Adaptation In New York State: Final Report~}, series = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ~~}, volume = {1244}, year = {2011}, publisher = {BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, OSNEY MEAD}, organization = {BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, OSNEY MEAD}, chapter = {Climate Risks}, address = {OXFORD OX2 0EL, ENGLAND}, isbn = {978-1-57331-876-1}, issn = {0077-8923}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Daniel A. Bader and Tryhorn, L and DeGaetano, A and Rosenzweig, Cynthia}, editor = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Solecki, W. and DeGaetano, A and OGrady, M and Hassol, S and Grabhorn, P} } @article {13, title = {Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {106}, year = {2011}, month = {5/2011}, pages = {93 - 127}, abstract = {While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today{\textquoteright}s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region{\textquoteright}s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder{\textendash}scientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.}, keywords = {New England Climate}, author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Solecki, William D. and Blake, Reginald and Bowman, Malcolm and Faris, Craig and Gornitz, Vivien and Horton, Radley M. and Jacob, Klaus and LeBlanc, Alice and Leichenko, Robin and Linkin, Megan and Major, David C. and O{\textquoteright}Grady, Megan and Patrick, Lesley and Sussman, Edna and Yohe, Gary and Zimmerman, Rae} } @inbook {558, title = {Chapter 3: Climate observations and projections}, booktitle = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, series = {Climate Change Adaptation In New York City: Building A Risk Management Response}, volume = {1196}, year = {2010}, month = {05/2010}, pages = {41 - 62}, abstract = {Climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures to New York City and the surrounding region. Heat waves are very likely to become more frequent, intense, and longer in duration. Total annual precipitation will more likely than not increase, and brief, intense rainstorms are also likely to increase, with concomitant flooding. Toward the end of the 21st century, it is more likely than not that droughts will become more severe. Additionally, rising sea levels are extremely likely, and are very likely to lead to more frequent and damaging flooding related to coastal storm events in the future. The treatment of likelihood related to the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) climate change projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4, 2007), with six likelihood categories. The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on global climate simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.}, keywords = {circulation, corals, greenland ice-sheet, model, precipitation, rates, record, Sea-level rise, UNITED-STATES}, issn = {978-1-57331-800-6}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05314.x}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Gornitz, Vivien and Bowman, Malcolm and Blake, Reginald} } @article {671, title = {Chapter 7: Indicators and monitoring}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, year = {2010}, month = {05/2010}, pages = {127 - 142}, abstract = {A popular paradigm states: What cannot be measured cannot be managed. The programmatic and practical objectives of the city and members of the New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force are to develop Flexible Adaptation Pathways for the region{\textquoteright}s critical infrastructure. These objectives will require ongoing and consistent monitoring of a set of climate change indicators. Monitoring of key indicators can help to initiate course corrections in adaptation policies and/or changes in timing of their implementation. The relevant indicators are related to changes in the climate, climate science, climate impacts, and adaptation activities. Thus, these indicators need to be devised and tracked over time to provide targeted quantitative measures of climate change impacts, and adaptation in order to provide useful information to decision makers in regard to timing and extent of adaptation actions.}, keywords = {adaptation, climate, climate change impacts, climate science}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05321.x}, author = {Jacob, Klaus and Blake, Reginald and Horton, Radley M. and Daniel A. Bader and O{\textquoteright}Grady, Megan} } @article {94, title = {Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {35}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, abstract = {The semi-empirical relationship between global surface air temperature and mean sea level first developed by Rahmstorf is here applied to the latest generation of Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Our results produce a broader range of sea level rise projections, especially at the higher end, than outlined in IPCC AR4. The range of sea level rise results is CGCM and emissions-scenario dependent, and not sensitive to initial conditions or how the data are filtered temporally. Both the IPCC AR4 and the semi-empirical sea level rise projections described here are likely to underestimate future sea level rise if recent trends in the polar regions accelerate.}, keywords = {climate change, coupled global climate model, sea level rise}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Herweijer, Celine and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Liu, Jiping and Gornitz, Vivien and Ruane, Alex C.} } @article {106, title = {Managing climate change risks in New York City{\textquoteright}s water system: assessment and adaptation planning}, journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change}, volume = {12}, year = {2007}, month = {9/2007}, pages = {1391 - 1409}, abstract = {Managing risk by adapting long-lived infrastructure to the effects of climate change must become a regular part of planning for water supply, sewer, wastewater treatment, and other urban infrastructure during this century. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City{\textquoteright}s (NYC) water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems, has developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university collaborative effort. Its purpose is to ensure that NYCDEP{\textquoteright}s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential risks of climate change{\textemdash}sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, changes in drought and flood frequency and intensity, and changing precipitation patterns{\textemdash}on NYC{\textquoteright}s water systems. This approach will enable NYCDEP and other agencies to incorporate adaptations to the risks of climate change into their management, investment, and policy decisions over the long term as a regular part of their planning activities. The framework includes a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, medium, and long term), the capital cycle, costs, and other risks. The approach focuses on the water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems of NYC, but has wide application for other urban areas, especially those in coastal locations.}, keywords = {Adaptation to climate change, Climate mitigation, New England Climate, Risk management, Sea-level rise, Sewer systems, Urban infrastructure, Wastewater treatment, Water quality, water supply}, author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Major, David C. and Demong, Kate and Stanton, Christina and Horton, Radley M. and Stults, Melissa} }