A Donald Trump Moment Is Developing In Vladimir Putin's Russia

Last weekend, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin expressed mutual admiration for each other. But their similarities go deeper. Donald Trump’s lead in the race for the Republican nomination reflects the widespread disenchantment of America’s blue collar families with “politics as usual.” Trump’s followers believe that the professional political class has given us crony capitalism, a captive media, unsustainable debt, foreign Main Street; we should remove them and get America moving again. Russia could be on its way to a Donald Trump moment.

At first glance, Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin Inc. seems immune from the Trump “throw the bums out” movement. For the fifteen years of his tenure, Putin has had the support and loyalty of the 85% of Russians who get their news from state TV. They are working-class Russians and “biudzhetniki”–government workers or state pensioners–who are paid from federal or regional state budgets. The 85% are not particularly interested in politics; they dislike cerebral regime opponents who, they think, only want to stir up trouble.

Russia’s 85% seem firmly under thumb of the state. The Kremlin controls TV, from which they get their news. The Kremlin’s electoral commission decides what parties and which candidates can run for office. The Kremlin’s internal security apparatus costs more than national defense. Regime opponents are silenced by jail terms or house arrest. Investigative journalists are murdered. The Kremlin’s liberal opposition is like a gnat, which Kremlin leaders must swat when it gets irritating.

Russia’s Trump danger to the Kremlin elite comes not from liberals, but from Russia’s 85%. They expect Putin to deliver rising living standards, jobs, and economic stability. In return, they’ll not take notice of corruption, mismanagement of state enterprises, favoritism, patronage, or nepotism. They will put up with the convoys of Mercedes, BMWs, and Audis that disrupt traffic or the special license plates for restricted-zone parking as long as they can have their beach vacation in Egypt or Turkey, and their paychecks keep up with inflation. If the Kremlin delivers, they’ll keep their mouths shut and vote for Putin’s United Russia Party in 2016 and Putin himself in 2018.

The Putin-85% compact has unraveled The Russian economy has shrunk for six quarters with no real recovery in sight. Real wages and living standards are falling at annual rates of ten percent, and inflation is in the high teens. Stagnation will worsen if the price of oil falls further. In a word, Putin is not delivering on his promises at a time when trust in Russian TV news has fallen from four in five to two in five. With a loss of public trust in its news broadcasts, the Kremlin will no longer be able to sway public opinion as it has in the past, an example being the tepid support for Putin’s Syria operation.

Seven signs of the developing Trump moment in Russia

There are seven signs that the Trump moment is developing in Russia. First, the 85% now rate economic higher than political concerns. On the list of Russians' top 10 concerns, 78% list inflation, 42% poverty, 36% unemployment, and only 22% mention the strife in Ukraine. Putin’s so-called push to make Russia great again, it appears, has become less important than bread and butter.

Second, Russia’s long haul drivers are in the midst of a nationwide protest that began in early November against a new federal highway tax that will depress their incomes while benefitting one of Putin’s favorite oligarch families. The Kremlin had to use force to halt the protest action outside Moscow’s ring road, but demonstrations continue throughout Russia, and new protest actions are expected when the tax goes into effect. Ominously, the people of Moscow overwhelmingly support the truckers. That 3 million truck drivers can act as an organized interest group that can gain the support of an organized political party (the Communists) is a step towards a politically-diverse society.

Third, the fiery speeches of three Russian businessmen at the Moscow Economic Forum lambasting the red tape, corruption and indifference of Russia’s economic elite went viral on the Russian internet.Their public rebellion exposed the deep dissatisfaction of the disappearing middle class with Putin’s kleptocracy. Surprised at the uproar, one of the businessmen declared that "I did what everyone dreams of doing themselves."

Fifth, a poll of the residents of the city of Barnaul (population 650,000) showed that of the nine candidates put forward for post of mayor, 90% of the votes were cast for a Siamese cat. Although the poll was informal, such a result shows that citizens have basically given up on a rigged and absurd political process.

Sixth, anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny put together an expose of the family of Russia’s prosecutor general, Yury Chaika, which was shown on RainTV. The documentary went viral, prompting an investigation and threat of suits by the prosecutor’s family. Based on legal documents, the documentary shows the family’s huge business empire amassed thanks to Chaika’s influence, rigged auctions, and the family’s dealings with one of Russia’s most notorious criminal gangs.  The documentary prompted one of Russia’s most respected newspapers, Vedomosti, to declare that the charges must be investigated insofar as they suggest that corruption runs deep in the Russian state.

Seventh, Putin, in his annual press conference (December 17), faced tough questions from the press concerning the state of the economy and the charges of corruption against his inner circle. Putin was forced to admit that his earlier expressions of optimism about the economy proved false, and the Russian people were in for more belt tightening Putin was reduced to delivering mind-numbing statistics and the mumbo-jumbo that  “Statistics show that the Russian economy has generally overcome the crisis, or at least the peak of the crisis, not the crisis itself.” Putin had to defend members of his inner circle against charges of favoritism and corruption. In the course of his defense, he falsely stated that 100% of the proceeds of the road tax go to highway construction and none to his childhood friends collecting the tax. He dismissed the charges against the Chaika family by stating that the Chaika sons “hold no official position,” as if the father’s position as chief prosecutor has no influence on business decisions.

The security arrangements of Putin’s kleptocracy are designed to liquidate political opposition, such as liberal opponents or investigative journalists. The Kremlin’s vast security apparatus cannot tame a Trump-like apolitical movement of the 85% fed up with the crooked, inefficient, and indifferent political elite. The Kremlin applied administrative force to neutralize the truckers’ strike. They will not forget. There are three million of them, and they and their colleagues can come back to haunt the Kremlin.
