Adonis Diaries

Behind the frantic activities for a Syrian peaceful transition in Geneva 2 Conference: This human disastrous calamity and…

Posted on: November 8, 2013

Is the humongous human disastrous calamity in Syria behind the frenetic activities for a peaceful political transition…?

The Congo is a continent in size and has double the population of Syria.

The Congo has been plagued with 3 decades of genocide, civil wars, border militia infiltration from adjacent unstable 9 countries…

The Congo suffered famine, kid-soldiers, all kinds of atrocities and mass killing…

In these 3 decades, the Congo witnessed 5 million who took refuge in bordering countries and another 5 million transferred within the country, and the UN has 20,000 troops to keep the peace…

It took only 2 years for the Syrians to experience a higher magnitude of the Congo calamities, surpassing it, and the adjacent States are too small to accommodate these massive influx of refugees.

And yet, Syria is by far more modern than Congo:

1. The Syrians were enjoying free public education, free medical care…

2. The Syrians were self-sufficient in foodstuff and produced 80% of their basic medication…

3. The Syrians were lately self-sufficient in energy, clothing manufactured product…

4. The Syrians had the best highway network, linking all the main cities and villages…

5. The Syrians enjoyed 4 decades of dictatorship system that brought security, stability and relative peace within Syria…

Lebanon 13-year civil war didn’t affect the neighboring States that much. It took only 2 years for the Syrians to let its neighboring States feel the heat and ugliness of civil wars.

Lebanon with 4 million is crumbling under the influx of 2 million Syrian refugees:

1. The Syrian women are giving birth in Lebanon in number exceeding that of the Lebanese women

2. The school system in Lebanon can accommodate only 300,000 students, and there are 400,000 Syrian children in Lebanon requiring education

3. And Lebanon has no government and the Parliament has extended its tenure for 2 more years on lame excuses, and the judicial system is not functioning properly…

Jordan is a poor country by any standard and is succumbing to the same influx of Syrian refugees, kind of a third of its total population

And all these refugees are living in make-shift tents and relying on the UN to feed them on a daily basis…

And another winter is coming, and polio and other diseases are spreading like a wild fire and vaccination of kids are lacking…

Why the multinationals selected Syria to be the example for all small nations who decide to be self-sufficient in energy and foodstuff?

The first ready-made answer is “Syria is a strategic State“. Wrong!

Africa is strategic: It has the vast lands for cultivation, all the raw materials, the water resources, the cheap labor force…

Singapore and Malaysia are strategic: More than 80% of the world trade passes by the straights in these two countries. The trade crossing Syria is insignificant, and Syria is a small country and lacking raw materials…

The second ready-made answer is “Syria is floating on oil and gas…

This is correct, but oil and gas have been transformed into market commodities. Any producing country wants to sell its oil and gas, and will sell it to whoever is willing to buy…   Israel is benefiting from this long delay in extracting gas and oil: Since Israel has already started exploiting its offshore oil fields, this delay will increase Israel market share in Europe from the production of the Eastern Mediterranean energy fields.

Unless an Armageddon War is being planned, and all resources to be denied the “enemy” and strategic lines of supply closed…

The third ready-made answer is “All the main oil and gas pipelines in the Middle-East must cross Syria to be profitable, and Syria refused that Turkey be selected as the main export port for oil and gas to Europe...”

That sound a reasonable excuse for the multinationals and Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf Emirates with over-sized Ego that consider money to buy everything… and react violently to buffeted monarchical ego. (Read link in note 2)

Another fourth ready-made answer is: “Unstable Syria will be more lenient in negotiating oil and gas deals with multinationals. And Syria will get whatever it gets for the reconstruction process...” This is a false and lame excuse: This Syrians will not succumb to such blackmails, and the western nations will be coughing up plenty of financial aids, until any stable government in Syria is ready to deal and deliver…

Still, the four previous reasons cannot be the main root-cause for a calamity of that magnitude: They are catalysts to convince short-term profit mongers in the global decision makers to disturb political systems and plague the people…

The fifth ready-made answer is an illusion that is taking roots in the feeble minded: “The western powers want the last semi-secular bastion in the Middle-East, after the various “Arab Spring” upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt to fall to Islamic extremists and pinpoint a “credible” global enemy to its citizens, as during the Communist Iron Wall… “

And why the western nations want the Middle-East to be ruled by extremist Islam? Is that the best way to convince their citizens that a third world war is imminent, and the various western parliaments will open the purses for printing money in order to relieve the short-term financial difficulties?

It has been demonstrated again and again that global wars ends with many empires falling and crumbling, and the economy of the winners to improve in the short-term, but never in the medium and longer-terms…

Do you think that China would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that Russia would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that the USA would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that India would vanish in a global war?

Do you think that Brazil would vanish in a global war?

All these vast and populous countries won’t vanish in a global war…

So which States will be eradicated, dismembered, subjugated to mandated powers?

The main root causes for the Syrian catastrophe may be:

1. One good reason that is barely posited upfront is the availability of water resources that most country in this region lack and will certainly be lacking in the coming decade. (Read link in note 3)

2. An extension to Iran economic embargo by exhausting Iran’s economy and finances in recurring wars, such as in Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain. Cutting the path for Iran to get firmly established in a stable and secure Syria, as it is established in a convulsive Iraq, and an unstable Lebanon might relieve Saudi Arabia and Israel momentarily, but the deep problems in these two States are endemic and are not related to Iran.

Basically, It is Israel and Saudi Arabia who are raising so much dusts over Iran nuclear program, and the US is trying to temporize with these two irrelevant States with capacity of only giving the US humongous headaches due to their well-financed lobbies.

3. Every one of these reasons has Israel looming from behind the scene: Israel want Syria to emulate policies matching the readiness of the adjacent “Arabic” States of Egypt and Jordan to negotiate a lopsided peace treaty that is biased toward Israel, and water and gas pipelines reaching and crossing Israel are in the forefront of Israel’s demands.

Are the elite classes in the western Nations still viewing the people in the Middle-East and Africa as colonial States and should be totally relying on them for their survival?

That a million dead here and a million slaughtered there in the former colonies are not matters of concern to mankind civilization?

This turmoil was to last  barely six months and things went out of hands.

And every one engaged in that morass lost, and lost heavily financially, morally and in world credibility as reasonable governments.

Many regimes will fall before a transitional government is settled in Syria.

Already, the Emir of Qatar handed over the reign to a son. Egypt of Morsi fell. The Moslem Brotherhood in Tunisia is battling for dear life.

And Turkey has lost all credibility as a moderate and developed nation in human rights, democratic processes and human development indicators… Turkey is one of the biggest loser: Shaky and flimsy democracy that is no longer tenable to cope with extensive Extremist Islam on its borders and a Kurdish movement increased confidence and means to check Turkish military preemptive attacks…

Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf Emirates are grappling with this last hurrah to be on the world scene.

Russia wanted also a weakened regime in Syria, but this calamity disturbed the name of the game. Russia has jumped at this opportunity  to re-establish its global role on “The Hot”, a condition that impresses the minds and is very convincing on its determination to regain its global position as a superpower. Russia could have resolved the situation in 2011 if it wished to limit the damages.

If the US fails to grab this golden opportunity to settle peacefully the Iranian nuclear program, the US will be losing on all score boards in the Syrian catastrophe. Iran will have no choice but to firmly link with China and Russia on their global strategy.

The US should know by now that apartheid Israel and obscurantist Wahhabi Saudi Arabia have no choices but to rely on the US for their survival. These two irrelevant and “rogue” States can bark their head off and pretend to show whatever rotten teeth they have, they are plainly a huge liability on the US moral and democratic credibility in the coming decade.

Note 1: Three decades ago, Norway had no expertise in oil and gas exploration, extraction and even processing. And it managed to do it without major oil multinational disruption of Norway decision to doing it on its own and setting precedents in drawing laws for the distribution of this new found wealth and allocating portion to a “Sovereign National Reserve Fund” for the generation to come… Why Norway was not destabilized?

Actually, it was an Iraqi oil expert, a resident of Norway, who lead the Norwegian oil team to becoming a success story

Note 2:  Gas pipelines

Note 3: Water resources




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