View Full Version : whatre the stats?

03-10-2003, 18:54
i know lots of people begin the thru-hike, but i was curious as to how many actually complete? i know most drop off in the first month, but exactly how much in relation to the original group?

it seems the stats are bad, how bad i dont know, thats why im posting this.

nonetheles, after researching for weeks on preparing for my AT thru-hie, the one sure thing ive gained was that if you have the determination, motivation, and commitment (preparing moreso than hiking) you'll most likely be a part of the select '2000 milers'

Lone Wolf
03-10-2003, 19:09
About 1 out of 10 make it and of those who make it probably only 10% of them actually hike all the white blazes.

SGT Rock
03-10-2003, 19:36
So about 1% actually do the whole thing for real. Given about 3,000 - 5,000 starters, this means about 30-50 a year really do it. I could buy that. This would also mean that 300-500 claim to have done it without actually doing so.

Lone Wolf
03-10-2003, 19:41
Yup. The last AT news that printed the supposed thru-hikers was funny to read. There were dozens of folks I knew who blue-blazed, yellow-blazed, skipped sections, etc. but they got their patches and certificates. Posers.

03-10-2003, 23:08
Jason, I wonder if you realise the potential "heated debate" your question might generate. Wolf touched on it by bringing up the "hit every blaze" idea. I don't think there are actually any credible numbers out there to answer that one. Trying to come up with those numbers, unfortunately, quickly leads to the oft-asked question, "What constitutes a thruhike?"

Officially, however, the ATC reckons that the percentage has grown over the last decade to perhaps as high as 20%. That's a rise from the previous estimate of roughly 15%. Remember that these figures in no way address credibility issues. They represent reported completions only.

I do believe these figures accurately portray the number of folks that will still be on the trail by time I get to Maine. How they got there, though, isn't represented.

03-10-2003, 23:22
I have to say it is funny to me that folks that haven't hiked every mile report to the ATC. I have hiked over 4,500 miles on the A.T., yet I still lack a few small sections here and there (I mean...the VA Creeper Trail is just too pretty to not hike it out of Damascus!!)...alas, I guess my name will never be on ATC rolls! Oh well....

TJ aka Teej
03-11-2003, 00:07
According to an old friend, Ranger Bruce White at Katahdin Stream Campground, only about 3 out of 4 'thruhikers' want the ATC form when it is offered to them.
Here's the data from Baxter State Park, the format's off, but you can figure it out. They had 532 nobos, but only 347 registered with the ATC.
AT Hiker stats for 2002
Month AT South AT North Flip-flop Section N
Section S IAT North IAT South Total
May 9 0 1 0 1 0 0 11
June 106 5 3 7 23 0 0 144
July 41 44 31 72 29 0 2 219
Aug. 20 154 30 87 30 1 1 323
Sept. 10 191 20 47 12 1 0 281
Oct. 2 138 4 15 5 0 0 164
TOTALS 188 532 89 228 100 2 3 1142

Totals North South Flip-flop Section IAT Total
532 188 89 328 5 1142

More stats are at the ATC site:

TJ aka Teej
03-11-2003, 00:18
Only 1,875 started from Springer, and 188 from Katahdin last year.
The 1,875 is an estimate by Walasi-Yi based on the 1500 that came through Neel's Gap, and the 188 is an estimate by the Ferryman at the Kennebec. 687 got thier Poloroids taken by the ATC at Harper's Ferry. 347 had sent in the 2000 miler form as of February.