3 Myths of the Market

By | 2014, Viewpoint | No Comments

Every year we find reasons to question the future prosperity of America. We wonder whether investors’ prospects are dimming. Last year, our minds were occupied with government slowdowns and shutdowns. This year, we are more focused on the question, “Has the stock market come too far too fast?” While the problems are real, they should not derail us from our plans. Most difficulties are overcome and the myths of the market are not true. Keeping proper perspective will help us make better financial decisions.

Myth #1: Investing is rigged
The U.S. stock markets are the most efficient in the world. All investors have the potential to build their wealth as they participate in it. The longer we invest in a diversified portfolio, the more likely we are to have success.

There is a related question, “Is investing like gambling?” The clear answer is no. When we invest we purchase part of a company (stock) or a promissory note (bond). We become owners of these and we have rights to future cash flows that may come from them. The risks and outcomes are determined by the free market. If a company is successful then all investors that own it have the potential to benefit.

This does not mean that markets are perfect. There have always been some who try to take advantage of others. However, investors become their own worst enemies when they make poor financial decisions. Saving too little and trading too often are two of the most common mistakes. Save sufficiently and invest wisely to attain your goals.

American Manufacturing

Myth #2: America is broke
The United States is in better shape now than it has been for many years. The unemployment rate is down to 6.3 percent and consumer confidence is up. Workers are expecting raises, and according to surveys of executives it looks like it may actually happen this year. Household debt is at record-low levels and corporations have more cash than ever.

Some people may argue that we don’t make anything in this country. This is false. U.S. manufacturing is up 22 percent since 2009 and near record levels. We have an abundance of natural resources, educated workers, and innovation. We have laws to protect and promote business.

Worries over ballooning government debt (over $17 trillion) are diminishing for now. The expanding U.S. economy has led to greater tax revenue (up 8 percent) and a lower deficit ($306 billion). These numbers may not sound great. We still have a long way to go to reach a surplus so we can pay off some debt, but these are the best numbers since 2007. The future appears brighter.

Myth #3: A market crash is imminent
Herbert Stein famously said, “If something cannot go on forever it will stop.” We all know that when the market stops climbing, it can be painful. Two stock-market crashes in the last 15 years are still vivid in our memories. However, just because stock prices have increased doesn’t mean a crash is coming this year.

What can we expect?
The Dow Jones index had double-digit increases in 2012 and 2013. This has happened more frequently than one might think. In the last 99 years, returns of this magnitude have occurred back to back 22 times. What happens in the year that follows two positive, double-digit years? The average return is a positive 5 percent. That would be a reasonable expectation for 2014.

When we examine critical factors for a healthy market, we see more positives than negatives right now. Of course, there are no guarantees.

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Obamacare Medical Costs on the Rise

By | 2013, Money Moxie | No Comments

There is no shortage of controversy surrounding Obamacare. Apparently there is also much confusion around its name. Jimmy Kimmel, the late night comedian, proved that people don’t have their facts straight. He had a camera crew ask people on Hollywood Boulevard which they liked better: Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act. One woman explained that Obamacare has “a lot of holes in it, and I think it needs to be revamped.” The same woman felt that “the Affordable Care Act is better.” She wasn’t the only one. Most people had similar opinions. Just to clear up any misconception, they are one in the same.

One thing that is certain is many Americans will have their medical insurance costs increase this next year. This is largely due to medical carriers revamping their plans to be in compliance with the new law.

Forbes reports that 41 states will experience premium hikes. In Utah, individual-market premiums are expected to increase by 24%.1


In one case, a single mother with 5 children had the cost of insurance increase from $827 per month to $1045. That is a 26% increase for one year.2

Seniors may also be indirectly impacted by the new law, which imposes spending cuts by reducing payments to hospitals and doctors, while increasing incentives for more efficient care. Supporters say this will strengthen the Medicare program in the long-term. Opponents say that seniors in Medicare will find it harder to access their benefits because more doctors are refusing to treat Medicare patients.3

The silver lining to all of this is that 30 million Americans will now have access to health care, and
many of those will be eligible for subsidies.

To see if you may be eligible for a subsidy, go to the calculator at http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/.

If you are eligible for a subsidy, you will need to apply for insurance through an exchange. When an exchange determines that a person is eligible for a tax credit based on expected income, subsidies will be paid directly to insurers to lower the cost of premiums.

Consumers purchasing insurance through an exchange “can pick from four levels of coverage, from bronze to platinum, with the greatest differences appearing in cost sharing features such as annual deductibles and copayments. Bronze covers 60 percent of expected costs; silver covers 70 percent; gold covers 80 percent; and platinum covers 90 percent.”4

After subtracting subsidies, a 27-year old in Salt Lake City earning $25,000 per year would expect to pay $95 a month if he chooses the bronze plan. A family of four in Salt Lake City with an income of $50,000 per year would expect to pay $122 per month for the bronze plan.5

The bottom line is that health care subsidies will be beneficial for low-wage and middle-income families. If you make too much to qualify for subsidies or if you are covered by an employer plan, most likely your premiums are going to increase. As the Supreme Court said, this increase is a “tax.” Make sure to plan those increased “tax” expenses in your monthly budget.

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The Federal Reserve Will Soon End its Easy Money Stimulus

By | 2013, Money Moxie, Newsletter, Viewpoint | No Comments

When Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, all lending essential stopped. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) feared that all five investment banks in this country would cease to exist. No one fully understood the financial calamity coming, but we were beginning to feel what the worst recession in 80 years would be like.

The Fed acted to stop the financial infrastructure from imploding. It believed cushioning the blow was necessary to help all Americans. It started the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). It added to that program over the years with Quantitative Easing (QE) one, two, and three.

Recent years may not have felt like easy money to us, but there is likely no organization more profitable in recent years than the Fed.

The Fed doesn’t literally print money (a responsibility of the U.S. Treasury). It doesn’t have to. Money is created electronically by the Fed and infused into the financial system through open market actions. Its effectiveness is questionable. Its impact is global. And at some time soon it may be ending.

What Is the Fed’s Impact?

Currently, the Fed is spending roughly $85 billion each month to buy treasury bonds in order to keep long term interest rates at historically low levels. The goal is to encourage risk taking. The Fed wants banks to lend, businesses to hire, and consumers to borrow.

If you have purchased a home, refinanced a loan, or bought a car with debt, then you have benefited from these unprecedented efforts of the Fed.

All this money the Fed is creating seems to be working to a small degree. The U.S. stock market* is on track for its fourth positive year in the last five. If you have invested in stocks or bonds consistently during this time, you have probably benefited from the Fed’s actions. Experts have been debating how well the Fed’s historic efforts have worked. One theory is that each time the Fed spends, it has less positive impact than the previous effort. This would explain the lackluster growth in the economy.

Why Is the Fed Still Involved?

Simply stated, the benefits still appear to outweigh the risks.

Low interest rates are meant to be enablers for businesses and consumers to increase borrowing. If the debt gets out of hand, then we will be facing similar problems to those that got us into this mess.

If spending and demand increase too much, then inflation could rise to levels considered too high for a developed economy (greater than 4 percent). At that point, the Fed will have to react to try to slow down the economy even if it means job losses.

At this point, official inflation is tame and private debt levels do not appear inflated like in 2007.

As long as the risks appear low and unemployment is above 7 percent, the Fed is likely to keep spending.

What Will Happen When the Fed Slows Stimulus?

Interest rates will rise from the unusual levels where they currently are to a more natural rate determined by investors. We experienced a taste of what this will feel like this spring and summer. Rates on the 10 year treasury almost doubled in just a few months. Investors saw an increase in volatility.

Where Is the Silver Lining?

Don’t fight the Fed is a common phrase for investors. The Fed is powerful and it is working for what it believes is best for Americans. It plans to cut stimulus only after it determines that the U.S. economy is strong. If rates rise that should bring better yields for savers.

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College Education – A New Path

By | 2013, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

What’s happening to the college experience in America? It’s changing. Not because of the campus environment, but rather because of the financial burden that faces today’s students.

The cost of obtaining a college degree continues to grow at a rapid pace. So, does college still pay off? The answer is yes! However, the path taken to obtain a degree has changed from the traditional route.

Students are getting savvy about spending more for their degree. Reducing costs is a major concern. As a result, many high school graduates are starting their college experience at the local community college. They receive the same level of basic education at a fraction of the cost compared to a private institution. Once the basics are covered, they transfer to their college of choice.

Why pay more to go out of state or to attend an Ivy League? In-state colleges offer a wide variety of academic majors and activities to create a great campus experience. The in-state tuition advantage makes going to these colleges a great investment. In addition, cost conscious students are willing to live at home while going to college. This way they can save on room and board as well as the cost of food.

Technology has had a major impact on college education—not only in the classroom but also as an educational avenue. Some students are opting to take college courses online. Recorded lectures and study materials permit them to attend class at their convenience. This flexibility offers students the opportunity to work and attend college at the same time. For many, technology makes what used to seem impossible, possible.

Many have given up on the traditional college education and are looking for a trade specific education, something that requires less time, a lower financial outlay, and the opportunity to get started in a career while completing required courses.

It’s safe to say that when it comes to education, that students are making the rules based on their individual needs and financial resources.

The focus on various degrees is also changing. Choosing a degree has a significant impact on one’s lifetime earning ability. Those obtaining engineering degrees have the potential to secure higher paying jobs throughout their lifetime than those with literature or education degrees. This being said, it’s important to note that just having a four-year degree, regardless of the field of study, gives students an upper hand when it comes to lifetime earnings. Many employers are not fixated on a specific degree. They believe they can train an employee in the areas they need. However, employers view a college degree as a definite advantage. Typically, these employees know how to manage their time and resources, research information, and solve problems, making them valuable employees.

Regardless of the form of education, the payoff in lifetime earning ability is huge and increasing.

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“The Most Powerful Force in the Universe”

By | 2013, Newsletter, Viewpoint | No Comments

Those who understand interest, receive it. Those who don’t, pay it. As investors, we believe this and we strive to go one step further. We seek to get paid interest on our interest. We call this compounding interest.

Albert Einstein called compounding interest “the most powerful force in the universe” and “the eighth wonder of the world.”

It is this mathematical force that has driven the Dow Jones Index to new highs and to over 15,000 this year.

Like everything in life there is a catch. It takes time to achieve compounding interest and it involves uncertainty.


One of the first questions we ask investors is “What is your time horizon?” In other words, “When do you plan to spend this money?”

This is critical because it may take some time to realize the benefits of compounding interest. On June 30, 1993 the S&P 500 was at 450. Fast forward one year and the return was negative 1 percent. Move forward ten years and the total return was 116 percent. Twenty years later, in 2013, the total return was 256 percent!

It pays to be patient with investments. It pays to keep a long-term perspective.


The stock and bond markets do not travel in straight lines.  There are days when they rise and there are days when they fall. If we don’t accept the uncertainty, then why would we expect to receive a reward.

As investors, we must accept some risk and we believe that over long periods of time, these markets will reward us.

In the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has gained 2,215 percent. Despite this fact, the market was positive only 42 percent of the months. That sounds like a frightening outcome, but the average return for all months was still a positive 0.6 percent.

The good news is that the longer the time period, the more likely an investor is to achieve growth. Positive returns occurred in 53 percent of the years, in 60 percent of 5-year periods, in 80 percent of 10-year periods, and in 100 percent of 20-year periods.

What can we expect in the future?

I believe there is still room for growth. I believe potential for improvement in technology, housing, energy, and employment could fuel this growth.

I expect that the further we look in the future, the more likely we are going to see opportunities to compound returns.

I believe the Dow Jones Index, which currently is flirting with the 15,000 level, is likely to reach 30,000. In my mind it is not a matter of if, but when.

What does all this mean? As we like to say at SFS, “Now is always the best time to invest.”

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5 Ways Rising Interest Rates Will Impact Your Life

By | 2013, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

On May 21st, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, announced that the Fed was going to start tapering their bond buying program sometime in the fall. In essence they feel the economy is doing well enough that they don’t need to keep pumping as much money into it. Ironically, the better economy is both good and bad news, depending on your perspective.

The bad news came as mortgage rates jumped about one-half a percent within a month. That left many people wondering how they will be impacted as interest rates continue to rise in the future. Here are five things you should know about how rising interest rates will impact your mortgage, savings accounts, and investments in bonds.

1. Mortgage rates are still low, but are on the rise.

The mortgage rate cruise ship has just started its engine as it prepares for a long cruise to the North. We have probably seen the lowest rates that we will see for a long time, maybe even our lifetime. This isn’t to say that everyone should abandon ship and never plan to move. Life doesn’t work out that way. It just means that if you are planning to move, and the move is in your control, then it may be better to move sooner rather than later.

Interest rates in the 4’s and even 5’s are still incredibly good by historical standards. As interest rates rise, you will either see your anticipated mortgage payment rise, or you will need to look for a slightly smaller and less expensive home. For example, the monthly payment on a 30-year mortgage of $400,000 went up by about $100.2 So, either you will find it in your budget to afford the additional $100 or you will look for a less expensive home.

2. If you are thinking of refinancing, you better do it soon.

Most people with equity in their home and great credit have already refinanced. However, if you have procrastinated, listen to the last call of “all aboard” and get on the low rate cruise ship before it leaves the harbor. If you didn’t have enough equity to qualify before, check again, because “rising (home) prices pushed 850,000 homes into the black in the first quarter.”3 If you are still underwater, you may be available to refinance through HARP. Check out the details at Harpprogram.org.

3. Lock in your rates now, if you are ready to buy.

This may help you avoid any short-term rate spikes. “Most lenders won’t charge for a 45- or 60-day rate lock.”4  Only pay for a longer rate lock if the deals are closing slowly. You should be able to ask your lender about this ahead of time. Also look for a free float down option in case the rates dip a little. Mortgage rates are still close to their all-time lows. So, lock in a rate for a long time, especially if you are looking to get a 30-year mortgage.

In this current environment, an adjustable mortgage makes sense only if you know you will move within a few years. You don’t want to get a 5-year adjustable loan and stay in the home for 30 years.

Rates going up will probably slow down the housing recovery a little, but it won’t be derailed. Rates are going up because the economy is healthier. For savers, the increase in interest rates is a mixed bag.

4. Interest in savings accounts, CD’s, and money markets will increase.

This is good news and bad news. The good news is that the abysmally low rates we have seen for the last few years will go up a little. The bad news is that you probably still won’t keep up with inflation.

One concern is that we may have inflation like we did in the ‘80s. So, if you are looking at putting your money in a CD or other investment that is locked up, avoid locking it up for a long time. For example, right now may NOT be a good time to put your money in a 5-year CD paying 1%. Inflation was already 2.1% in 2012.6

If inflation goes up higher, being locked in and earning only 1% would feel like a jail sentence. Another strategy would be to place your money in a one-year CD and roll it into a new CD every year anticipating that rates may go up each time you renew.

5. Bond investors, be cautious.

Since the market crash in 2008, many people have fled the stock market and moved into bonds in search of safety. However, bonds are not without their own risk. As inflation increases, the value of a bond may actually go down.

Many bond investors have seen this firsthand as they have watched bonds in their account stay flat or go down despite the growth in the stock market this year. This is not to say that you should get out of bonds completely. Even aggressive investors often have some bond exposure to help with the unpredictability of the future. However, in a rising interest rate environment you have to pay attention to what types of bonds may still do well and incorporate those bonds into your portfolio.

The good news is that there is a general consensus that the U.S. Economy is healthier and continuing to move in the right direction. However, this will most likely lead to higher interest rates, which can be both good and bad. Pay attention to how you will be impacted and if needed, make some moves now so the impact won’t be a tidal wave.


Lessons of the Bitcoin

By | 2013, Executive Message, Money Moxie, Newsletter, Viewpoint | No Comments

Bitcoin is a new form of money. It is 100 percent electronic and it just exploded in popularity. In just 6 weeks a Bitcoin went from $25 to $250. What an exciting time for Bitcoin speculators. Why even question it? This is a new electronic age and the possibilities are endless.

Not so fast! On April 10, 2013, the Bitcoin imploded. In just a few hours the value of a Bitcoin fell from $266 to $76.

What is the problem with Bitcoins? Where do we begin? The synthetic currency has no intrinsic value. It represents ownership of nothing. It is not backed by any government. It is not a commonly accepted form of payment. Its owners could be hacked and robbed, or it could be replaced by a more popular made-up currency. The Bitcoin mania may turn out to be one of the most spectacular bubbles of all time.

The term bubble was first used in the early 1700s to refer to wild price fluctuations associated with the “South Sea Bubble.” Another famous episode was the Dutch tulip mania of 1637. In recent history, we have survived the dot com bubble, the real estate bubble, the oil bubble, and possibly the gold bubble.

Why are we so prone to pricing bubbles? Will they ever end?

Greed: The idea that $100 could turn into $150 tomorrow creates fans. That excitement leads them to forget that it is one of the most volatile ways to gamble. Given that it has no real value, it may be more likely to fall 50 percent than rise 50 percent.

Conformity: When opinions converge on an incorrect idea, we call it groupthink or herd mentality. When money is involved, we call these bubbles, and they are dangerous because they can be costly.What should we watch for when trying to detect a bubble?

(1) Insane predictions (with or without good explanation)

(2) Excessive attention as too many people discuss and act like experts

(3) Repeated use of the phrase “this time is different”

(4) Deviation from normal supply and demand because of manipulation

The U.S. stock market has had a string of new highs over the last few months. This in and of itself is no cause for alarm. Hitting new highs is exactly what stocks are supposed to do. That is how investors make money. (Read “Patience is a Rewarding Virtue” from the  previous issue of the Money Moxie.)

How do we know if stocks are in the process of forming a bubble? There are a few simple reasons why investors should not be overly concerned at this point.

(1) Stocks represent ownership of real companies that have value and can grow in value

(2) Valuations of companies compared to earnings are near historical averages

(3) Fundamental improvements in the economy are taking place that support a rise in the market

Bubbles involve a high degree of risk. One way to avoid unnecessary risk is to watch out for investments that don’t have real value or have deviated too far from their true value. Those values are derived from how much the next person is willing to pay.

On the other hand, stocks market gains can benefit everyone who participates. Stocks represent ownership of something real. Time has shown that carefully investing in a diversified portfolio can yield positive results over time.

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What is the Riskiest Part of Your 401(k)?

By | 2013, Money Moxie, Newsletter | No Comments

You have control over the most important factors that determine successful retirement savings in your 401(k). You control the contributions, investments, and withdrawals. You are the riskiest part of your 401(k)!

Inherent risk does not exist in a 401(k). Why? A 401(k), 403(b), IRA, or Roth IRA is not an actual investment. These are merely vehicles or accounts that allow us to save money for the future in a tax-preferred environment.

The risks come in other areas, most of which we have the ability to control. This article will discuss four of the most misunderstood risks: investment risk, active user risk, savings rate risk, and self-plundering risk.Investment Risk

Within the 401(k) or qualified retirement account, there is generally a wide variety of investment options. These include different sectors of the market and ranges of risk, as measured by volatility. These options can be conservative, aggressive, or anywhere in between.
We cannot control what the world stock and bond markets do, but we do have some control over how our money is invested and how much risk we are going to take.  As participants, we choose which of the investment options we will use. This requires us to know which mix of the options will meet our investment risk tolerance, emotional needs, and time-frame.

Active User Risk

We drive the level of risk. If we choose investment options that are too aggressive, we increase our risk. If we do not diversify among the options, we increase our risk. If we change investment options in response to information we hear or read, we may increase our risk.

The chart to the left shows how volatility in the market changes from year to year. Investors evaluate each year based on the ending market price. Was it positive or negative? Participants tend to forget that even though a year may have ended positive, we could have experienced significant volatility mid-term. Take for instance 2009. The market ended up 23.5 percent by year end. Looking back, it’s easy to forget that during that year the market was down 27.6 percent.

These periods of volatility can cause investors to get sidetracked. They forget their long-term plans. They try to outguess the market by moving in and out. These decisions are often based on emotion, and it is generally to their financial detriment.

On the flip side, some participants remember the volatility and become risk averse. They forget that over time they have experienced more positive years than negative. They forget their long-term objectives and become too conservative.

Savings Rate Risk

We have seen a significant decline in the personal saving rate among Americans. While a 401(k) allows contributions up to $17,500 each year ($23,000 for those 50 and older), many make minimal contributions. Just like investing too conservatively, saving too little will leave many far short of living a desired lifestyle at retirement.

One of the benefits of a 401(k) is that you can make systematic investments directly from your paycheck. You don’t have to sit down and write a check each month. It happens automatically. Not only that, the company may offer a matching contribution. That’s free money! Our clients experience greater success when their savings plan is set on autopilot.

At any time, investors have the ability to increase their investment amount. Unfortunately, as raises and bonuses come, rather than increase their contributions, investors often allow the raise or bonus to be absorbed into their cash flow.

Self-plundering Risk

Participants who view their 401(k) as a savings account or emergency fund fall prey to this particular risk. They access their money by taking loans or withdrawals, diminishing the opportunity for long-term growth. Even if a participant takes a loan and pays it back, they will experience opportunity loss. This is the difference between the interest rate they paid themselves through the loan and the market returns they missed out on. The difference becomes more significant when you compound the missed opportunities over their working years and throughout retirement. Taking early withdrawals is even more damaging. Participants not only miss out on long-term savings and compounding returns, but they will also pay taxes and penalties. The taxes are based on marginal tax rates, but the 10 percent early withdrawal penalty is exact.

For example, say that a participant has a 25 percent federal tax rate and a 5 percent state tax rate. If they were to take a $20,000 withdrawal from their 401(k), they would lose $8,000 (40 percent) to taxes and penalties, netting a meager $12,000. Suddenly that withdrawal doesn’t sound so enticing.

There are many misconceptions regarding risk when it comes to 401(k)s. We want to make sure you are well informed about the benefits and risks in these accounts.

As we see it, a 401(k) is an ideal vehicle that provides us with a tax-preferred way to save for the future. Will a 401(k) be enough to support someone in retirement? Probably not. While most companies offer a company-match to 401(k) participants, many no longer offer pension plans. This makes it paramount that we save more on our own for retirement.

Our investment decisions, savings habits, and our willingness to stick to a plan can prevent us from increasing our risks. Working with one of our wealth consultants can help you make the most of your 401(k) opportunities and avoid some of these risks. Having a plan and making educated choices is just the beginning.

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A visit to the NYSE!

By | 2013, Travel | No Comments

SFS’s Vice President, Sharla Jessop, had the opportunity to visit the New York Stock Exchange yesterday while attending a national peer to peer study group in New York City, NY. During her stay, she will discuss strategies and ideas to better serve SFS’s clients.

Sharla Jessop at the NYSE

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