Friday, March 22, 2013

Friday update: LPC leadership race and the OLP in Toronto


126,000 Liberals in, Bertschi out









Ontario Liberals continue to lead in Toronto









  1. According to my own projections and estimates, Trudeau should be able to win at least 57% of the vote, which, would result in at least 15,401 points.

    His maximum, if my numbers are correct, would be 26,108

  2. Eric, do you have a ballpark number for where the PCs would need to be in the 416 to put seats like Don Valley East into play? Obviously Don Valley West is a special case, since it's the Premier's seat, but the Conservatives federally were able to take DVE in the last election.

    Of course, Hudak isn't following Harper's path of trying to appear centrist, and the radical right-wing social policy agenda he's pushing is probably a major turn-off in places like DVE.

    1. The PCs would need to be at around 32-33% in Toronto to win Don Valley East in the model, assuming the New Democrats remain at 30% and all of the gain comes from the Liberals, who drop to 34-35%.

      At that point, the OLP is decimated in Toronto, as the PCs would win eight other seats and the NDP would be bumped up to nine, leaving the OLP with only four seats.

    2. Thanks! I figured it would take something like that, and I really don't see it happening.

  3. "It gives Murray her first caucus endorsement."

    Céline Hervieux-Payette and Larry Campbell are both Liberal caucus members who have endorsed Murray. Senators form part of a party's caucus in Canadian politics (at least that's my understanding). It's rarely relevant, but can come up when caucus has to choose an interim leader for example.

  4. Small quibble: it's not actually true that the DOS attack on the NDP depressed turnout significantly. You can see via Pundit's Guide that real-time voting accounted for 10,487 votes on the first ballot and 9,602, so only about 900 people dropped off. Most of the drop in votes from the first to fourth ballot is actually due to advance ballots getting exhausted: 54,887 advance ballots on the first ballot, but only 49,608 of them were still valid on the final ballot. About 5,000 ballots had ranked neither Topp nor Mulcair, accounting for the lion's share of the apparent drop in turnout across the day.

    1. Good point, I'll update.

    2. So that was about an 8.4% drop over the 4 ballots for real-time voting, against a 9.6% drop for the advance ballots.

      Proportionally, the DoS incident did have almost as much effect as ballot exhaustion -- although the subset affected wasn't nearly large enough to override the advance ballots.

  5. So Eric what would actually happen if there is an election in the next few months?

    Given the options I think the view is obscure !


