Skip to navigation | Skip to content


The end of oil - alternatives and implications


End of oil - part two

Are there any indications of oil external to Earth?

^ to top


Are biofuels a realistic alternative, or is there simply not enough space to grow all the fuel we need? Is there any biofuel that can replace petrol or diesel without damaging other humans or the environment?
—Alex Clarkin and David Bennett

Biofuels have the potential to form part of our future transport fuel mix. By themselves, biofuels are unlikely to be a total replacement for petroleum as not enough fuel feedstock crops could be produced to supply our needs. Although today we rely largely on one transport fuel type - the derivatives of oil - in the future it is anticipated that we will rely on a mixture of fuel types including biofuels, and synthetic fuels derived from mixtures of gas and coal, or gas and electricity. Reducing our demand for transport fuels will also play a crucial role.

Biofuels have much to recommend them in terms of having lower emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants compared to petroleum and other fuel types. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, on the health benefits of biofuels in our urban environment. There are also potential side benefits in terms of sustainable land management, with research exploring how growing crops for biofuels can be used to manage salinity as well as how woody weeds can be used for biofuel production. There could also be some downsides in terms of water use and biodiversity loss if we clear new land for biofuel crop production. Further evaluation of the benefits and downsides is needed.

— Dr Brian Keating CSIRO

We'll never know if we don't take a few small steps forward. Sometimes people get so caught up in trying to find THE answer that they forget that there are a number of small incremental steps that can be taken which will make a difference. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day. Low greenhouse biofuels may not ultimately be the complete answer to our problems but they may help. But we must be careful not to treat all biofuels the same - some can be developed with very low greenhouse emissions in terms of fertiliser and other energy inputs but if not processed appropriately some sources of biofuels may make no improvement at all.

In addition there is the prospect of a number of technological breakthroughs, in particular development of bacteria that can break down cellulose into simple sugars which would greatly expand the resources that could be easily converted to biofuels.


^ to top

Compressed air

In some TV programs I've seen a car being fuelled on compressed air. Why can't they start producing those cars or putting research into that so we are not at the mercy of the oil supplying countries?
— Regina

Hydrocarbon fuels are wonderfully compact and convenient. Running cars on compressed air is fine, but you use up a lot more energy compressing the air than you get back when you use it to drive the car. Also, energy density of compressed air storage is not very high, so you end up with very limited range.

— Prof Stephen Johnston, Faculty of Engineering, University of Technology Sydney

^ to top

A water-powered car

I have been reading lots of material on the web regarding water-powered engines. Is there any possibility of a water powered car where you burn hydrogen and oxygen combined in a 2:1 ratio and collect the exhaust gas (steam), condense it and recycle it?
— Ian McElwaine

Running a car on hydrogen and oxygen is viable (particularly if you use a fuel cell, which produces electricity at reasonably high efficiency), but it takes more energy to split the water back into hydrogen and oxygen than the useful energy you get out of recombining them. Fine if you have huge banks of solar photovoltaic cells, and lots of water, but it does involve significant capital costs. Also, storing the hydrogen and oxygen is complex and/or expensive.


^ to top

Hydrogen technology

Why is the uptake of hydrogen technology taking so long and do you think it is the answer to all our problems? I have heard about another country, Iceland or maybe Greenland running almost entirely on hydrogen, so what's stopping the rest of us?

Hydrogen has the potential to occupy a unique position in the future world energy scene. Not only could it provide ultimately a universal means of conveying and storing energy - especially if renewable energy is to become dominant - but also an entirely novel fuel that could eventually replace (or at least greatly reduce) the reliance on fossil fuels and thereby also avoid/decrease emissions of carbon dioxide.

The successful implementation of hydrogen as an energy carrier is subject to two major requirements. First, it must be supported by an infrastructure that provides seamless, safe and environmentally acceptable transitions from production to distribution, storage, and use. Second, it must be economically competitive.

The establishment of a Hydrogen Economy presents many scientific and technological challenges. There are numerous detailed routes for the production of hydrogen from primary energy sources (both fossil fuels and renewables) and multiple applications to be evaluated, each of which will impose its own individual technical and economic specifications.

In addition, there are policy, regulatory, financial, investment, environmental and safety questions to be addressed. The role that hydrogen will play in future energy scenarios will only be known when all the remaining R&D has been completed, when demonstration projects have been conducted, and when full technical and economic evaluations have been made.

Further details may be found in Clean Energy, R.M. Dell and D.A.J. Rand, Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, UK

—Dr David Rand, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Energy Technology

There are two types of vehicles that use hydrogen; those driven by fuel cells and vehicles that use hydrogen in the same way that standard combustion engines use petrol. Hydrogen-fuelled cars combust hydrogen to produce heat energy and create water as a waste. Fuel cells use a chemical process to convert hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity.

Hydrogen cars are used in various parts of the world. In West Australia they are trialling buses with big hydrogen tanks. One of the problems is that you need the infrastructure in place, such as hydrogen fuelling stations, or technology to convert hydrogen from the air.

— Steven Hoy, Senior Engineer, Vehicle Safety Standards, Department of Transport and Regional Services

^ to top

Oil-efficient engines

Where are the really oil efficient engines that we keep hearing about? Surely it is time for them to come into production. Is industry too slow or is their some other agenda?
— Dave Abrahams

I've read lots of claims about what certain engines can do with fuels and fuel efficiency and tests have generally shown that they are not much better than other engines. Try as we might we haven't got around the fact that the fuel that we put into an engine puts a certain amount of energy out.

There are two main types of engine, diesel and petrol. Diesel engines are by far the most efficient, and there is an increasing trend towards using diesel engines in newer cars. In Europe the take up is around 20-30%, while in Australia diesel engines have switched from being in 2-3% to 4-5% of the fleet.

Any combustion engine uses rotors and pistons to mix fuel with air, squash it down and release it. There are two things that tell us the fuel efficiency of such a system: the amount of energy in the fuel, and the compression ratio. Diesel engines have a compression ratio of 20, while petrol engines have a compression ratio of 10. That's why diesels are starting to be more popular.

The offset is diesel is a bit more controversial in terms of the health effects of the exhaust. They have been heavily worked on to improve emissions of fine particulate matter and carcinogens and they are now much cleaner, but people are more wary of them.

At the moment as well as petrol and diesel engines there are hybrids that recapture wasted energy. For example energy lost during braking can be captured and converted back into battery power, or create the electricity needed to get a car started after it stops at a traffic light. I think the the next big thing in transport will be the transition into fuel cell-driven cars.


^ to top

Coal-extracted oil

When the cost of oil was A$10 a barrel, the production of synthetic petroleum from coal by the Fischer-Tropsch process or high pressure hydrogenation was reckoned to be A$20-30 per barrel and therefore uneconomic. With the current price of oil at A$75 per barrel, has the position changed? If it has, why is nothing being done about it?
— David Paterson, Robert Merkel, Craig Wallace, Geoff Smith and Dr. Alec Melvin

Clean oil can be obtained from natural gas or coal by gasification and the Fischer-Tropsch (the conversion of carbon monoxide and hydrogen into hydrocarbons) process, but the cost of the processing plant to obtain liquid fuel from gas is about half of the cost of the corresponding coal plant - so gas to liquid (GTL) is preferred. The other big problem is the generation of carbon dioxide - a greenhouse gas - during the processing. Coal produces much more carbon dioxide than gas. The scale of production is such that sequestration (pumping the unwanted gas into depleted gas reservoirs or aquifers) is the only acceptable alternative.

The main reason that GTL or CTL (coal to liquid) has not been widely applied is economic. There are some large plants being constructed in Qatar and in Nigeria, and the Qatar plants are due to come on line this year. However the Qatar price for natural gas is thought to be about US$0.5/gigajoule, which produces oil at about US$32/barrel. The Australian price for natural gas is closer to $3.50/gigajoule, which could be acceptable if the oil price stays high.

There are some other difficulties in Australia in that a lot of our natural gas is located off shore, where delivery to the mainland is difficult or uneconomic.

It is extremely likely that GTL and CTL will be a feature of our energy mix in the future, despite the expensive nature of the processing plants (of the order of US $1 billion) and the need to solve the greenhouse gas emission issues.

—Prof David Trimm, CSIRO

^ to top

Absence of oil

What modes of transport will be most affected by an absence of oil? What will happen to all the vehicles on the road now and what will become of commercial air travel?
— Tony McDonald, Adrian Gerard Kunde, Donald, and Eden

There will never be an absence of oil. We will not run out, there will always be some left. We may well run short of oil, probably very soon, when Peak Oil arrives. As nearly all transport; cars, trucks and planes, are powered by petroleum, there is likely to be a reduction in travel, and people changing to more efficient modes, like bicycles, motor scooters and very small cars. Australia has more natural gas than it has oil, so we could use gas for some of the vehicle fleet, but this would mean reducing liquefied natural gas exports, or reducing the amount of electricity generated by gas.

Bicycle transport is a biofueled mode, using breakfast cereals and excess abdominal fat for fuel. Currently there is no shortage of either. We would be fitter, healthier, happier and better off if we all used cars less.


Commercial aviation is the transport mode least able to adapt to rising oil prices. Aircraft are expensive and fuel is a growing component of costs. A significant disruption to oil supply and the consequent price bubble could cause commercial aviation to contract. It might not fully recover. Air travel will become more expensive.

About 70% of oil consumption fuels transport, most of it road transport, the least fuel-efficient land transport mode, except for bicycles and walking. Alternatives fuels to match the performance and price of historical petrol and diesel are not emerging. The future lies in adapting to a less fuel-driven transport economy and life style. Only essential road transport will survive.

Road vehicles have a life of about 15 years. Improved fuel economy is possible in new vehicles at a price. But in the medium to long term here will be fewer vehicles on the roads.

— Brian Fleay, author, The Decline of the Age of Oil

Other petroleum fuels, such as LPG and natural gas, are used for transport and they may gain an increased role if and when oil becomes more costly or less readily available. Liquid fuels such as methanol and bio-diesel may also be useful in some cases, but the extent to which these might supply the market without generating other impacts could be somewhat limited. There are many other alternatives, including battery-powered and hybrid petrol/electric vehicles, hydrogen-powered fuel cells, and greater use of electric mass-transit systems, that will also play a role.


^ to top

Medicines and plastics

What will be the medical implications particularly in regard to petrochemical fields such as plastics, synthetic materials (clothing etc), and medical (medicines and oils used in nuclear medicine, xray equipment etc)? Are we going to go back to the days when most household things are made from wood, leather, and cast iron?
—Howard Worrall, Ian, and Paul Murray

Oil has been the feedstock of choice for the organic chemicals and plastics industries for several decades largely due to convenience and cost. It would not be too challenging to switch to coal or bitumen.

In a sense, the chemical industry is simply brushing off an age-old idea. As far back as the 1900s, coal tar extracts were used to make chemicals. And the technologies have long existed to heat coal until it turns to hydrogen and carbon monoxide gas, use the gases directly to make ammonia for fertiliser, or liquefy them to use as building blocks for plastics. But when natural gas was selling for $2 per million cubic feet, and oil was $10 a barrel, using gasified coal, which costs about $4 per million cubic feet, made no sense. Now, with gas prices still above $7 per million cubic feet and oil prices at more than $70 a barrel, it does.

It may also be that if we develop alternatives to burning oil for heating or transport then cheaper oil may be available as long-term supplies for plastics feed-stock.

So I don't think it likely that we will go back to the days of wood, leather and cast-iron. Which is probably good for forests, cows and those who live near iron foundries.

— Dr Cedric Griffiths, CSIRO

Virtually all plastics, synthetic fibres, detergents and some pharmaceuticals are made using oil and/or natural gas, both as feedstock and for the energy needed for the manufacturing processes. Their production is energy intensive. Plastics are also used as water pipes, electric circuit insulators and floor coverings.

We have consumed all the oil and natural gas from sources where it is easy-to-find and cheap to extract. Remaining petroleum will become progressively more difficult and expensive to obtain. Its production will begin decline in the near future.

Coal can be used to make some petrochemicals. But it is more difficult and expensive. And coal is a dirtier fuel to use than petroleum.

Petrochemicals will become more expensive in real terms, and ultimately their availability will decline. This will happen as the world's population increases. Cotton and wool can substitute for synthetic fibres in clothing. But agricultural land would be needed at the expense of food production. Food and fibres will become more expensive.

Cheap petroleum has enabled us to live extravagant and wasteful lifestyles - the 'throw away' society. This era must rapidly come to an end in a world where world population is approaching 7 billion. Values such as thrift and a greater sense of care for others must replace the excessive selfish self-interest prevailing today.

Substitutions are possible, but not with the convenience of petrochemicals. Also the world's forests are being cut down at a faster rate than new trees can replace them. We must aim to reduce the world's population.


^ to top


Is it true that without oil to make synthetic fertilisers, it will not be possible to grow enough food to feed the current projected world population? Are we looking at a Malthusian catastrophe?
— Paul Murray

I suspect it depend on the time frame. If there were an imminent reduction in oil the answer would be yes. But if it was more of a planned and progressive reduction then we would be able to adapt and change and the answer would be no.

— Roger Leaning, Senior Resource Analyst, ABN AMRO Morgans

Prof. Alan Bartlett, University of Colorado, describes industrial agriculture as a way of using land to convert petroleum into food. It has made possible the growth of cities and the depopulation of the countryside in the developed world.

The global limits of good quality agricultural land were reached around 1960. A doubling of world population since has been fed by a doubling of grain yield per hectare. Nitrogen fertilisers made from natural gas plus other fertilisers and irrigation were the principal factors making this possible.

The manufacture of nitrogen fertilisers is very energy intensive and is usually the biggest fossil fuel input to farm production. Lime is often needed to counter soil acidification. The world's biggest ammonia plant is being commissioned at Karratha in WA to provide nitrogen fertilisers to India.

Fossil fuels, mainly petroleum, are significant inputs to the food chain - on farms, in farm transport, food processing and packaging, and transport to warehouses and super markets. Last but not least car travel to and from supermarkets and for cooking and refrigeration in homes. Food often travels 1000s of kilometres.

The most important use for remaining petroleum is for the food chain while we halt population growth and reduce it. The food chain must be shortened to favour local production for local needs.

The sooner we start down this path the less likely there will be a Malthusian outcome. A key factor must be a drastic reduction in urban car travel.


^ to top

Earth without oil

What will happen to the Earth if there is no longer oil running through its veins?
—Mauricio Gomez

Predicting what will occur to the fate of the rock structure when oil is removed from the earth is part of a discipline called geomechanics.

Crude oil is normally found in tiny interconnecting holes called pores, commonly in rock types such as sandstone or limestone, usually from 1000 to 5000m below the Earth's surface. Oil reservoirs are formed when oil, which is normally less dense than water, seeps into the rock pores and collects in the top layers of porous rock, forcing some of the water downwards. Some water remains clinging to the edges of the rock pores, and in doing this traps small amounts of oil within the rock.

When oil is removed from the reservoir, pressure, temperature and the shape and nature of the rock strata will affect the Earth's response. Two things can then happen.

The first is that the space previously occupied by the oil is filled with water. When this occurs there is only a minor pressure change within the reservoir so there is no noticeable earth movement. This is known as a water drive.

Alternatively if the void does not fill with water, oil which has become trapped within the rock pores expands slightly to fill the space and dissolved gas in the oil comes out of solution. This is known as a depletion or expansion drive. When this happens there is a noticeable pressure change within the pores, however there is usually no earth movement because the reservoir rock and those above the reservoir are strong enough to withstand the force of all the earth above the reservoir.

In rare cases, the reservoir rocks and those above them are not strong enough to support the overlying earth when there is no strong water drive to fill the space. Instances where this has happened include the Lake Maracaibo oilfields in Venezuela, where over time the Earth's surface subsided so dry ground has become submerged, or at the Ekofisk platforms in the North Sea where the surrounding seabed subsided, which forced the platforms to be jacked up more than six metres.

—Denis Wright, Team Leader, Petroleum Engineering and Identified Resources, Geoscience Australia

^ to top

What we do to adapt

Is this the end of a world that has become dependent on oil for just about everything, and what do we as an individual have to adapt to or change to continue on as present?
—Valerie Vangel

The change is going to be driven by efficiency and productivity. Nations in the developed world tend to use more efficient technologies, while developing nations use lower rank technologies - technologies that are 10, 20, or 30 years old.

New innovations such as recycling and collection of gases for co-generation or other alternative energies can increase productivity. Most modern engines have added these technologies while older engines were made to burn oil as quickly as possible.

One way of meeting the challenges is using these more efficient technologies. Oil is used making plastics and there are new technologies, for example in Japan, where it is possible to convert plastic back into oil. So it is important to look at recycling and alternative use of wastes.

— Roger Leaning, Senior Resource Analyst, ABN AMRO Morgans

Petroleum is fossil fuel from millions of years ago. We have to end our dependence on them. Cheap petroleum is ending and their decline will commence in the near future. These fuels pervade our lives. Over 60% of world oil fuels transport.

We have to reshape every aspect of our lives - how we work, live, eat, and how we relate to one another. This will take decades. We need the remaining petroleum to fuel this task. We need a Plan B.

This can only happen if everyone participates in these changes in an open and informed way. It can only happen if the changes are fair and equitable. Building trust is important. This will not happen with "top down" command approaches where leaders say "we know best". This is not a reflection on their competence, rather it reflects on the complexity of the task.

New organisations and relationships will evolve, in business, in government and communities. The ones that will be successful will be the ones that unleash the creative genius of their people. A combination of "bottom up" and "top down" democratic leadership approaches with public participation will allow solutions to emerge. This is the essence of modern leadership.

It is not inevitable that this will occur, nor is it impossible. We must avoid cynical attitudes that this can never happen. Expectations tend to be self-fulfilling and expecting such approaches to happen helps them happen. Already there are positive signs.


^ to top

The future

I have teenage grandchildren who will live through the energy descent. What are the most useful training programs they can undertake now to secure the most viable future for themselves and their future family? For example is it associated with some type of repair business, food production and so on?
— Mervyn Couper

There is still going to be an inordinate amount of oil and gas available to our grandchildren and probably their children.

For Australia I suspect it may become more important in the future to be able to provide a service to various industries, such as becoming a specialist in a highly skilled service. In many different nations over the centuries a change in the resources available to different countries relative to one another has marked an ability by these countries to develop resources in the best way possible. There are many things that are done in China or India for a far lower cost than in Australia, for example. We need to value-add to our skills to do something that others can't do. Lower cost skills and products from developing nations will force Australia and other OECD nations to look at what they do to compete on an international scale. There are many businesses in Australia that do this now and are the best in the world, for example in engineering services and oil and gas.

— Roger Leaning, Senior Resource Analyst, ABN AMRO Morgans

I would hope that we will turn a corner and the 'once through manufacture-use-dispose' mode that we operate in will be questioned. In which case repair and 're-manufacturing' will become very important, although it may not resemble a street corner industry version, but involve the participation of manufacturers. Some of this will be driven by waste and environmental legislation, often called Extended Producer Responsibility, as we are starting to see in Europe for electronic equipment and vehicles, and also in Japan and Korea. This discussion is only just starting in Australia. To study and understand this new world requires training in many disciplines, science, economics, policy, engineering and design. Encourage your grandchildren to understand the world around them in these terms and to 'always question' and they will be well equipped. And invest on their behalf in manufacturing companies that demonstrate extended producer responsibility.



^ to top

Published 11 May 2006