Edition: U.S. / Global

For Many White Men, Clinton's the Reason To Vote for Dole

Published: October 6, 1996

Ask Republican men in this stronghold of conservatism why they are voting for Bob Dole in November, and the odds are they will tell you first that Bill Clinton is a promise-breaking, policy-shifting politician whose charm and sweet talk have cast a dangerous spell on much of America.

It is not that they think Mr. Dole would not be a good President. They think he would be. It is just that the same passion they feel in explaining why they do not like and do not trust Mr. Clinton eludes them in explaining why they prefer his opponent.

As the 1996 Presidential campaign has unfolded, President Clinton's persistent lead over Mr. Dole in public opinion surveys has been defined, in part, by a growing number of women who say they prefer the President over Mr. Dole. Poll after poll shows Mr. Clinton has gained significant strength with female voters in the four years since he defeated President George Bush.

But on the other side of the gender gap, many of the same polls measure something else: a strong preference for Mr. Dole over Mr. Clinton among certain groups of men, like white men who are married and live in the suburbs. In many cases, the polls show, Mr. Dole is doing even better among these groups of men than Mr. Bush did in 1992.

With the Presidential campaign lumbering into its final weeks, many men, particularly in a state like Texas, are angry that Mr. Clinton is doing so well in the polls, frustrated that Mr. Dole has failed to catch fire with voters and baffled that so many Americans do not seem to care about character.

These men may profoundly respect Mr. Dole, but they do not seem to like him very much. While it troubles them to admit it, they wish he could be a lot more exciting, like Mr. Clinton, or better still, like Ronald Reagan.

In the family room of a house in an upper-middle-class Dallas suburb, seven white men stayed behind after a weekly 7 A.M. Bible study group with their sixth-grade sons to vent. Their lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Dole is so great that it took 20 minutes before his name came up.

''I wish you could put Ronald Reagan's head, when he was President, into Bob Dole's body,'' said Gil Sheehan, a 39-year-old father of three who runs a small gift-manufacturing business. ''Ronald Reagan said, 'Hey, America, this is what I believe.' I don't know if it's his handlers or what, but Bob Dole comes off as wishy-washy.''

Phil Mabry, a 42-year-old stockbroker and father of four, agreed, saying: ''Ronald Reagan had vision. Jack Kemp has vision. Hillary Clinton has vision, although it's one I don't agree with. I don't sense that from Bob Dole. He's very qualified, but he has trouble articulating his message. And that's what elects Presidents.''

While none of the men said his wife was supporting Mr. Clinton, they are painfully aware that the polls show Mr. Clinton has a 2-to-1 lead nationwide over Mr. Dole among female voters.

Even in Texas, where the most recent Democratic Presidential candidate to carry the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976, men and women are straining in opposite directions. While 50 percent of Texas men prefer Mr. Dole, only 39 percent of the women do, according to a poll of 1,007 registered voters taken by Blum & Weprin Associates in September. By contrast, 36 percent of Texas men who were surveyed prefer Mr. Clinton, while 46 percent of the women do. The margin of sampling error for each sex was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The men have little trouble explaining why some women do not find Mr. Dole an attractive candidate. ''Grumpy old man,'' said Frank Bullock, a 41-year-old real estate broker.

''It's a Nixon-Kennedy thing,'' Mr. Mabry said.

The only time the group got excited about the Republicans was when Joseph P. Garrett, a 41-year-old real estate developer and father of two, asked: ''Would you vote for Elizabeth Dole for President?''

''I'd love it!'' Mr. Sheehan said. ''She's one of the reasons I'm excited about Bob Dole.''

''I'd love a Kemp-Elizabeth Dole ticket,'' Mr. Mabry said.

''That's my ticket,'' Mr. Bullock said.

Even when Mr. Sheehan tried to stop the group from fantasizing too much about a possible female President Dole, he still could not stir much enthusiasm for her husband. ''Please don't think Bob Dole doesn't have a lot of vision, that we'd rather have a woman,'' he said. ''But you know, he doesn't have a lot of vision.''

The men -- and dozens of other middle- and upper-middle-class men interviewed throughout Dallas -- acknowledge that the explanation for the male-female gap is more complicated.

They cite the Republican Party's rigid opposition to abortion, which has polarized the party establishment in Texas and alienated a large segment of Republican female voters.

They say that Mr. Clinton has inaccurately -- but cleverly -- managed to portray Mr. Dole as a man who would rob old people of their medical benefits and take food away from poor children.

They think that some of the issues that Mr. Dole has stressed, like the need for a stronger defense and a stronger business environment, do not automatically carry as much weight with women.

And in a state like Texas, where the economy has thrived in the Clinton Presidency, Mr. Dole's pledge of a 15 percent tax cut comes off sounding to both men and women more like a political ploy.

But the way Mr. Dole looks and talks is what the men keep coming back to -- whether at an afternoon game of six-man football for sixth graders in the upper-middle-class enclave of University Park or in the hog house of the Texas State Fair.

''I wish Dole would come across as a more tough-minded person, a person with more vigor,'' said Grant Stephenson, 52, an executive recruiter, watching his son play football.

''I don't think it's the age thing. It's his style. Bill Clinton has so much charisma I don't even know if a Ronald Reagan could beat him this year,'' Mr. Stephenson said.

At the State Fair, men talked more bluntly about why Mr. Dole's inability to charm hurts his chances, particularly with women.

''Dole, well, he's old and ugly for one thing,'' said Scooter Brown, a 51-year-old veterinarian, horse-trader and Dole supporter.

As for Mr. Clinton, Mr. Brown added: ''Some women know about his past, but they don't seem to care.''

Mr. Clinton's past, in Republican circles here, is shorthand for accusations of marital infidelity that may not be much of a factor nationally but that are being used in Texas as part of a broader attack on the President's character.

''Bill Clinton is not a role model for our children or our nation,'' said David Slaughter, 38, the owner of a women's shoe company who was at the fair with his wife and children. ''It's the immorality, it's Whitewater, it's sex.''

That sentiment was echoed at the fathers' morning meeting. ''I have friends who run around on their wives, and it's nice to go hunting and fishing with them,'' said Frank Fleming, a 44-year-old lawyer, ''but I wouldn't want them running my country.''

Recent polls in Texas showed Mr. Dole had a lead so slim over Mr. Clinton that the race is considered a dead heat.

But Mr. Dole's die-hard supporters remain convinced that Texans -- both male and female -- will not be swayed by the President's charm.

''Been there,'' said Will Ford Hartnett, a lawyer and conservative member of the Texas Legislature. ''I was the nerd. My fiancee was always attracted to smooth talkers. But the good guys always win in the end. In the end I got her. What counts is stability, loyalty, devotion, integrity. Bob Dole's going to win Texas hands down.''

Graph: ''Shifting Support'' shows percentage of married men and women who support each candidate. (Source: New York Times/CBS News Polls) Chart: ''The Big Picture: How All Men and Women Differ Politically'' shows political views of both men and women, based on The New York Times/CBS NEWS Poll. (pg. 24)