Opinion / Editorial Opinion

Oil industry the big winner in Alberta election

No matter which party won, there would be no sudden changes when it came to oil sands development.

Voters headed to the polls in Alberta on Monday, April 23, 2012 after a campaign in which the leaders barely mentioned the oil sands.

Jonathan Hayward / The Canadian Press


For once the outcome of an Alberta election was completely unpredictable.

Right up until the end the two leading contenders — Alison Redford’s PCs and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose party — were locked in a bitter battle for control of government.

But one outcome was entirely predictable.

No matter which party won there would be no sudden changes when it came to oil sands development and all the risks and rewards that go with it, not just for Alberta but for the rest of Canada. The oil sands and energy policy in general were simply not on the election agenda.

Party leaders barely mentioned the oil sands; it wasn’t a big issue in the news media; at the public forums I attended not one person questioned candidates about oil sands policy. Official oil industry voices were noticeably silent for the entire campaign.

The oil sands didn’t even come up during the only televised leaders’ debate. It was as if the whole province went into denial about its addiction and no one cared enough to organize an intervention.

This may seem strange to other Canadians. After all, hardly anyone talks about Alberta these days without mentioning the oil sands.

But in Alberta all the political parties, with the exception of the New Democrats, are reluctant to take on the petroleum industry during an election campaign. For starters, the oil and gas corporations are the most reliable of sugar daddies when it comes to raising money for election campaigns.

Both the PCs and the Wildrose received substantial donations from industry players in 2011. And since Alberta’s election financing laws allow for up to $30,000 single donations during an election year, a lot more money was likely poured into party coffers in the last few weeks.

That was no doubt on Redford’s mind when she told 600 senior oil and gas industry leaders gathered in Calgary a week before she called the election that she would “stand up for your interests” and “not let you down.”

And since so many Albertans work directly for the oil and gas sector, or are in some way dependent on its success, no political leader wants to make those people skittish about their jobs or the future of the oil patch lest they lose their votes.

Former premier Ed Stelmach learned that the hard way. When he raised oil royalties a few years ago, the industry’s outrage fuelled the explosive growth of Wildrose, which until then had been a minor political player.

Not surprising then that during this election 13 Wildrose candidates (out of a full slate of 87) had direct experience in the oil and gas sector.

There was a bit of a kerfuffle related to the oil sands late in the campaign when Smith said she had doubts about climate change. But even that remark didn’t prompt much concern about how she might approach oil sands development. Given that those projects are among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the country, they just might have something to do with climate change.

Instead, Smith was portrayed as anti- science.

Party leaders, candidates and the voters seemed to believe that everything is coming up roses in Alberta as far as the economy is concerned so why discuss it? The Wildrose is so upbeat about the future that it promised each Albertan hefty cheques in the mail, payments from oil and gas revenue that became known as Dani-dollars.

The PCs made so many costly promises that the price of oil will soon have to zip up to $200 a barrel if they are to fulfill them.

There is no doubt that the federal Conservative government led by Calgary’s own Stephen Harper does not want an Alberta government that stirs up trouble over the oil sands. Harper wants the status quo, which means getting the stuff out of the ground and on the market as soon as possible no matter the consequences. The petroleum industry wants much the same thing.

But so many questions remain.

How are we going to quell growing criticism in the U.S. and Europe about our “dirty” oil? How do we best resolve the tension between the need for economic development via the oil sands and the need for environmental protection? Where on earth are we going to find enough workers for the oil sands boom? Should we be sending oil to eastern Canada rather than the U.S. or China? What if oil loses its lustre?

The answers to those questions are now more than ever in the hands of the Harper Conservatives and the petroleum industry for they were the real winners of the Alberta election.
