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Market Takes Out Overnight Lows On Weak Richmond Fed, New Home Sales Decline, But Confidence Up... On Hopium

Tyler Durden's picture


Another set of ugly economic data to add to the earlier Case Shiller miss: the Richmond Fed officially contracted despite expectations of a rise from 3 to 5, dropping to -1. This means that the recent rebound from negative to positive and back to negative is indicative there is something far more broken with the economy than just a transitory soft patch. New home sales also deteriorated dropping from 315K to 312K, on expectations of a rebound to 320K. The median sales price was $235,200, and the average $269,000, on 6.3 months of supply. As Joseph Brusuelas of Bloomberg said, "Nothing in data suggests any turnaround." Yet the irony is that the end consumer: the entity that is getting pounded daily by this administration and the oligarchy, just became more confident, with the number beating consensus of 56 and printing at 59.5... on Hopium! Yes, the current conditions declined from 36.6 to 35.7, but at least American have managed to revert to their standard optimistic outlook, and the six month outlook surged from 71.6 to 75.4. Hilarious. Nonetheless unlike before when this goalseeked data point would have been enough to set off a massive buying spree by the HFT algos, today it is insufficient, and following the relentless barrage of bad economic data ES just took out overnight lows.




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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:13 | 1494176 HelluvaEngineer
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Let me help all of you out who aren't professional traders.  Get ready to BTFD.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:18 | 1494201 TheTmfreak
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My clownbux income is worth less and less everyday. Gotta have clownbux to buy any kind of "dip."

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:23 | 1494227 HelluvaEngineer
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Haters.  Ya'll just jealous of the skills I learned from my RoboTrader "So You Wanna Be a Pigman" day trading system.  Available on VHS and betamax.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 15:06 | 1495460 Jeff Lebowski
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* 10 people are confused by sarcasm.


junk away, bitches.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:13 | 1494177 No Bid
No Bid's picture

Buying washers/dryers does wonders for the human psyche.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:15 | 1494189 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

CAD and CHF nice moves in FX land

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:17 | 1494196 HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

I wouldn't risk shorting at this point. Not with LULU still near its all-time highs. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1494219 malikai
malikai's picture

I voted you up Hamy. Cuz I like chix in lulu.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:23 | 1494223 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep Hammy and cant fight NFLX!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:45 | 1494662 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

+1 for reverse psychology.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:17 | 1494198 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

What Writing a Book Taught Me About Obama and Those Who Followed Him...

OT: 2 Min Comedy Vid...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:19 | 1494209 Djirk
Djirk's picture

Indexes down, EUR/USD up?!?!? Isn't bad econ news good for QE3 (bulliish for equities)

Paradigm shift, back to fundamentals???

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:19 | 1494211 monopoly
monopoly's picture

This market is nuts. Has no direction, but not shorting. Too scary.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1494216 qussl3
qussl3's picture

OPEX week PM shenanigans still working like clockwork.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:23 | 1494224 bigdumbnugly
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that's because this market is the drunken sailor that it is.

sooner or later thougb it'll slip from leaning on the lamp post (-prop) and fall on its face.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:32 | 1494261 caerus
caerus's picture

agreed...imho the whipsaw moves are indicative of a market ready to tank...check out an ES chart that goes back to Jackson Hole...pretty clear uptrend followed by a sinusoidal price oscillation that began in January 2011...there are also (somewhat) clearly defined upper and lower bounds...I'm still watching ES 1280, 1260 to be conservative

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:21 | 1494220 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh yea fill me up a big hookah bowl of Hopium!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:22 | 1494222 Spastica Rex
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Why does Zerohedge hate optimism?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:24 | 1494231 SheepDog-One
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Well when 'optimism' is interchangeable with 'retardation', its not really a virtue.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:33 | 1494266 caerus
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I think ZH loves reality

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:35 | 1494277 Spastica Rex
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But, but - it's the duty of all Americans to think magically! How can we continue to live the American dream if we stoop to rationality? Just Do It.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:00 | 1494389 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Spastica, can you you tell Bob that I still haven't received my slack yet. Seriously in need of some major slack here, please expedite.

America is the classic cargo ship culture, wer're all just waiting for our ship to arrive. There is a perverse twisted nature to our optimism, in the 1st great depression of the 1930's a little ditty called "happy days are here again' was very popular. I would suggest someone pen a nice hummable melody with the lyrics "we're all rich and famous and have lifetime jobs" as a suitable song for the current era.

Optimism, just one more thing Americans can no longer afford.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:16 | 1494457 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's not optimism that is hated. It's the lies, the bs,and the corruption that is hated.I think that most of us are optomistic about a new future where the central bank isn't devistating the lives the U.S. citizenry and Washington is held in check.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:23 | 1494228 monopoly
monopoly's picture

PCX, ugly earnings. Yikes.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:25 | 1494235 SheepDog-One
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After this 'earnings season' wraps up, watch out for the markets it will get ugly.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:33 | 1494267 Iriestx
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Since when do fundamentals have anything to do with stock values?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:26 | 1494237 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I'm still in a kind of shock to understand how anybody can possibly think shit is going to magically get better. Even from the government debt situation. Regardless of one's views, do we really think that the "rehetoric" is going to die or that there isn't going to continue to be a "disfunctional" ever fighting political battle which causes more damage than anything else?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:26 | 1494239 Hard1
Hard1's picture

Consumer confidence up on the fact that you can consume a lot if you are paying zero on your mortgage....btw Tyler, the previous format for comments made for better discusions.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:02 | 1494393 Village Idiot
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"btw Tyler, the previous format for comments made for better discusions."

I'm sure Tyler has heard it all by now, but imo the boxes cause a weird "boxed in" feel.  Anyone else feel "caged' with the new format?  Also, if I read correctly some handpicked, credentialed type is going to be scoring?  Whatever, I hope the corrections are made before damage is done.  The new format is at a minimum a partial failure and needs to be corrected...soon. 

"Thats why they call them mistakes and not on purposes."

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:10 | 1494453 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

The formatting of nested comments in the old system made it impossible to read once things got busy. It became a string of lines with only a single word on each line making the page length nearly infinite and discouraging actual reading let alone discourse.

Your mileage may have varied as I'm certain it was a factor influenced by the width of your monitor. Since i usually use a netbook, notebook or handheld, my max width is never more than 1024.

BTW what is this mortgage thing that you mention. With 20% of workers not working in the above ground economy, the black market is the only thing seeing growth. Lots of copper air conditioners going missing in this part of the country. I hear there are entire crews with logo'd vans pulling up in front of unoccupied houses and under the guise of rennovation they are pulling out wiring, plumbing, cabinets, appliances etc.- then leaving the gutted houses and moving on to the next plunder.

one solution to the problem of too many houses on the market, I suppose.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:38 | 1494624 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

It will never get to the point where robbers take the reinforced doors instead of fiat when robbing banks... Because there might be gold behind.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:27 | 1494240 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I'm all in on Blockbuster pink sheets. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:29 | 1494246 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Things are going to get better because crude oil folded like a cheap suit again today.

Obama mistakenly let crude out of the SPR and gave the proles a tax cut!  LOL....

Any wonder why WFMI, SBUX, PNRA, etc. are unfazed from all the horrid news rolling out these days?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:37 | 1494285 css1971
css1971's picture

Oh come on. You know it's the bonds. Yields down today, stocks down tomorrow.


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:42 | 1494311 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

lulz. Momo, you are the perfect fade. After posting that crude is 'blowtorched' for a year, is gas free in LA yet? Crude still 98, what a bargain.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:39 | 1494628 malikai
malikai's picture

Looks like crude suckered you.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:41 | 1494638 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Oops, actually crude almost came back to 99.5

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:29 | 1494249 iamtheeggman wh...
iamtheeggman whooooooooooooo's picture

Morale (hopium) rises with the continued beatings.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:31 | 1494255 virgilcaine
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The Nflx effect.. when the teeve shuts off.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:40 | 1494304 oogs66
oogs66's picture

here comes the ramp and the long grind to green?  insane

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:49 | 1494334 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

If you're retired with SS and a pension there's still a lot to be optomistic about.

Whip those young people and tell them you had it as bad as they did!  You deserve all that loot!  The economy will turn around.  It always does...  LOL...   /sarcasm

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:20 | 1494519 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

if you're retired with social security and a pension, you are still old, closer to death and living on a fixed income that is likely declining everyday from shadow inflation.

You are also likely to be confused as you see a system that you thought you understood, collapsing into chaos. You watch your children and grandchildren struggle and can do nothing. even your advice no longer makes sense in a world so alien.

nobody in the middle class is getting a free ride, you want to feel anger and resentment, I suggest you focus on the politicians and bankers, the international corporations that gutted the economy and now offer no efforts to either fix things or rein in the continued looting by the oligarchy.

Blaming the retired is pointless and a worthless gesture that merely shows a lack of reasoning, or an effort at shifting blame to those who worked a lifetime to enjoy what little they may have and off of those who literally stole the wealth of a nation.

I hope I can retire someday and I hope I won't be blamed for the destruction of the nation if I get lucky enough to actually collect some of the social security money which I have paid into the system since I began working years ago.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:28 | 1494826 KennyG09
KennyG09's picture

Actually, I can be just as angry at the greedy boomers (OMG shiny BMW and McMansion I can't afford!!!) about to retire as I am at the banks and politicians. Now my generation will have to clean up after them. You may get some of your SS (you hinted at this), I will NEVER get any of the money I have already paid in. While at the same time cleaning up the garbage the boomers were too dumb (or lazy) to fix while they had the chance. This doesn't show a lack of reasoning. Quite the contrary, it's laying the blame where it belongs, and it belongs to boomers just as much as the TBTF banks. You're shifting ALL the blame away from those retiring onto only politicians and banks. Who lacks reason here?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:18 | 1496761 StychoKiller
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If, after the first 30 pages, you still don't understand, there's no hope for you!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:19 | 1494513 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

And market rebounds :-) No shorts yet.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:21 | 1494529 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

consumer confidence up because QT must have extended their 59 cent fountain beverage special?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:44 | 1494657 BCTwelve
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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:52 | 1494925 Barmaher
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omg zh changed the font. can't cope. aiiiiiiiiii

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:53 | 1494936 PulauHantu29
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Here are Six safe ways to cut down on the bloat:

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 22:56 | 1593353 karmete
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