Back in the heady days shortly after the Big 12 came into existence, there was talk the conference would revolutionize college football.

Those bold claims weren't fantasy when four Southwest Conference expatriates merged with the Big Eight.

The new conference freely borrowed from the NFL by using Roman numerals for its Big XII nomenclature just like the pro league did in numbering its Super Bowls.

It provided an immediate and intended air of early superiority to set it apart from the Big Ten, Atlantic Coast, Pac-10 and the Southeastern conferences as the nation's best.

Fast-forward 15 years and the conference indeed appears ready to make history: It could become the first of the so-called football super conferences to implode.

Texas A&M appears headed to the SEC, coming on the heels of departures after last season by Colorado and Nebraska.

If the Aggies leave, could Oklahoma or Texas be next? If they leave, what happens to everybody else?

The Big 12's future is fraught with these kinds of questions. Based on numerous interviews with individuals across college football, the answers to those questions paint a dim future for the league:


Q: If Texas A&M leaves as expected, what does the Big 12 do immediately?

A: The first task will be commissioner Dan Beebe's toughest. The Big 12 needs unanimity in moving forward together.

A nine-team conference will work for the time being. But all remaining Big 12 schools need a unity pledge.

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Ranking the Big 12 replacements

If Texas A&amp;M leaves the Big 12, the remaining schools will have to decide if replacing the Aggies is in the conference's best interests. A look at six potential replacements in order of attractiveness, although the Big 12's legitimate hopes of convincing them to join is an entirely different matter:

1. Notre Dame: Dan Beebe's ultimate pipe dream, although don't expect the Irish or media sugar daddy NBC to be interested.

2. Arkansas: Remember when some thought the Razorbacks eventually could be convinced to jump to play more convenient natural rivals in the Big 12? Those days are far behind as the Razorbacks have become rich in the SEC.

3. BYU: The Cougars weren't popular among their former rivals in the Mountain West Conference, but their 25-year-old seniors would meet a more hospitable response from Big 12 brethren hungry for any kind of national respect. Some national observers might look at an A&M-for-BYU swap to be a wash - at least in football. Adding the Salt Lake City television market would be a plus, too.

4. Air Force: The Falcons run a unique option offense, have national appeal as a service academy and would get the Big 12 back into Colorado. If they're interested, they would be a strong candidate for expansion.

5. Houston: Likely the most popular in-state replacement for Aggies among Austin legislators because of their public-school status. But what does the Big 12 really gain by adding a team in an area the conference saturates?

6. TCU: Makes the most sense as far as a football-ready program capable of competing at the highest national level of any possible replacement. But this decision is bigger than mere on-the-field competitiveness. - Tim Griffin

Pick a plan

Potential responses the Big 12 could choose if the Aggies leave or unexpectedly decide to remain:

1. Convince A&M to stay: It's the least likely of scenarios because of the Aggies' well-advanced courtship of the SEC. But commissioner Dan Beebe pulled off a miracle to keep the conference together, and don't bet against him until A&M president R. Bowen Loftin is pictured accepting the SEC's invitation from commissioner Mike Slive.

2. Keep all but the Aggies: The conference could operate with just nine teams. It might be popular for Texas and Oklahoma, which would find an easier route to a BCS championship game. And it would provide a home for all members - even those that might be left scrambling if the conference falls by the wayside.

3. Aggressively attract other members: If Beebe could attract Notre Dame to join the Big 12, it might be a net benefit to losing the Aggies. BYU would also bring some positive national buzz. Adding teams such as Houston, Louisville or TCU while keeping members intact would build the Big 12's local support but would likely not be as well received nationally.

4. Armageddon: If the Aggies leave and schools such as Oklahoma and Missouri follow, the Big 12 would be doomed for extinction. Texas will have no concerns, but others such as Texas Tech and Baylor would sweat where they would end up during the next game of conference musical chairs. - Tim Griffin


Q: What would be the Big 12's next step?

A: Beebe has talked about pushing expansion before A&M's departure, but he needs to move forward immediately to start talking to candidates.


Q: Would Notre Dame be interested in the Big 12?

A: Big 12 officials believe they can make a strong pitch to the Irish. Notre Dame has turned down the Big Ten on multiple occasions, but the Big 12 can provide something the Big Ten couldn't.

Notre Dame could continue its independent deal with NBC within the framework of the Big 12's setup.


Q: After that, whom would the Big 12 pursue?

A: BYU would give the conference entry back into the Rocky Mountain area. It's a football program with a passionate national backing and a national football championship.

BYU could continue to work on its fledgling television network.

Despite BYU worries about joining a conference again, the Big 12 would undoubtedly welcome the Cougars with open arms - even those 25-year-old senior offensive linemen who were so vilified over the years by their Mountain West Conference rivals.


Q: Who are other candidates?

A: Air Force would be attractive because of its national following, unique program and geography. A&M would like the conference to strongly consider a state school such as Houston to reduce some of the legislative pressure as the Aggies leave.

But the Cougars might have to commit to playing at professional facilities in the Houston area to join.

TCU is the most football-ready addition in a competitive sense, but would add little else to the conference because the Big 12 is king in the Dallas-Fort Worth TV market.

Same with the Houston-area schools.


Q: What does UT do next?

A: The Longhorns will never have as sweet a conference deal as they have in the Big 12 with uneven revenue distribution. Their best hope is to keep the Big 12 afloat with all members.

The Longhorns need Oklahoma and Missouri to provide legitimacy to the conference on a national basis. If either or both leave, don't be surprised if UT soon follows.


Q: If expansion doesn't work, would OU consider leaving?

A: Besides UT, the Sooners figure to have the strongest ticket out. They could jump to the SEC or Pac-12 and be a solid fit in either. One problem is the Sooners might be linked to Oklahoma State wherever they go.

It would be extremely unpopular if the Sooners left their oldest rivals behind and some sticky Oklahoma politics would result. OU president David Boren really doesn't want to be on Cowboys booster T. Boone Pickens' speed-dial list.


Q: Where would Texas Tech land?

A: New athletic director Kirby Hocutt has given the Red Raiders vibrancy in leadership, but Tech's chances might need much more. Tech was among the four Big 12 schools set to jump to the Pac-12 last summer, but the Red Raiders have to be proactive again. Hocutt has a strong ally in his mentor, OU athletic director Joe Castiglione. But Tech's best interests - like UT - might best be served by keeping the Big 12 together.


Q: What about Baylor?

A: The Bears were able to tag along with UT and A&M during the last conference shakeup.

But their political power isn't as strong and they'll be hard-pressed to stick this time with the big boys.

A better alternative might be in a reconfigured Big East, where they would be an intriguing partner with TCU in a grouping that Horned Frogs fans would find delicious in its irony.


Q: And the rest?

A: Missouri borders three SEC states and could be an intriguing expansion candidate joining A&M.

The Tigers likely have a better chance there than joining the Big Ten, which embarrassed Missouri in favor of Nebraska this past year.

Kansas has the flagship basketball program in the Big 12, but that won't matter much as this conference affiliation has been fueled by football. The Jayhawks could jockey with OSU or Tech for a bid in the Pac-12 if the conference breaks up. Kansas State and Iowa State could struggle to keep an affiliation with a BCS conference if the Big 12 goes away.


Q: Can the Big 12 survive the Aggies leaving?

A: Beebe kept the conference together last summer when Nebraska and Colorado left because he promised more money to remaining schools if they stuck it out. It won't be that easy this time. If A&M leaves, the conference's $1.17 billion deal with Fox might take a hit.

The Big 12 needs some impressive expansion additions to grab national attention. It will take a major effort to pull that off.


Q: What about five years from now?

A: The Big 12 likely will be gone and we'll have a new group of conference affiliations to memorize.

But like everything in college sports, these plans could break apart quickly.

Just like the Big 12 appears ready to do.