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Re: DISCUSSION - US hit on Pak-FC base was unprovoked and deliberate

Released on 2013-09-09 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 1817419
Date 2010-09-30 20:48:08
that could all be true but the strike on govt itself being intentional not
be true.

They could be operating on their own and without that pakistani
cooperation...which means they are not telling the pakis when they go
over, so then the pakis shoot at them. They also dont know where the pakis
are so they cant avoid them, and may think they really are tban

Basically you would have two different military forces not talking to each
other operating in the same locale and something bad is bound to happen


From: "Chris Farnham" <>
To: "analysts" <>
Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2010 1:17:46 PM
Subject: DISCUSSION - US hit on Pak-FC base was unprovoked and deliberate

It's a thought I can't get out of my mind and I want to through it out
US is getting close to make or break in Astan and the prognosis is far
from good. No better time than now to take some risks and if they can stop
a large percentage of attacks from across the border in the eastern
regions that would give them a massive leg up to use the surge to best
effect in the south.
In that sense the problem isn't the Haqqani/Pak Taliban it's the Pak
govt/military that are permitting this to happen and directing it to suit
their goals. Take away the support and protection the Pak military
provides to the militants and NATO/ISAF would deal with them to great
effect. So the US has greatly increased drone strikes, used the media to
threaten cross border raids and suggested that they are through dealing
with Islamabad and are going it alone.
Now they hit the Pak military, let them know that the US needs to move on
this and will do just that. First thing that does is pressure the govt,
who is already trying to hold off a coup, flood waters and India. Last
thing they need right now is for the US to make them look irrelevant. The
only lever that PAk has is the supply lines (big, I know), their
intelligence flow to the US is not something they can use as a lever as
they aren't giving the US shit anyway! Can't take away what you're not
Putting this pressure on the govt and military then drives a wedge of
doubt and mistrust between the Haqqani/Pak militants and their military
patrons. The militants will know that the risk of being thrown under the
bus has increased drastically and now will have to watch for US drones,
attack helis and SF deployments on one side all the while making sure the
Pak military doesn't sacrifice them to the US to save their own asses.
This then widens the latitude the US has to work with in the east. It
disrupts the flow and potency of the cross border attacks. unsettles the
uncooperative elements the Pak mil/govt and allows the US to suggest
drawing up a new way forward in an attempt to release the pressure.
There has been a long line of leaks (wikileaks, WSJ leak, prepping cross
border missions leak, sky news item saying that attacks on Europe are
planned, Woodward book, etc.) over the last month or so suggesting that
the dynamic on the border was unacceptable and moving toward change. Then
there has been a massive increase in drone attacks in the last 30 days in
the lead up to this and over the last couple of days a string of border
incursions by NATO forces. There is a wholesale shift going on in the east
and this makes the idea of a hit on a Pak borrder post
"accidental/unintentional" very hard for me to believe.
I have a pretty strong gut feeling that Pak was just told that the US has
decided to take the initiative and they best play along, get out of the
way or get targeted.
The only part of this picture that I cannot make fit is the supply line


Chris Farnham
Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142

Michael Wilson
Watch Officer, STRATFOR
(512) 744-4300 ex 4112