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IDC: iPhone to drop to 11% share by 2014 while Android rises

updated 02:15 pm EDT, Tue September 7, 2010

IDC sees Android rise to 25pc, iPhone drop to 11pc

Apple's share in the smartphone will settle down over the next few years while Android makes a fast rise, IDC predicted today. Researchers expect the iPhone to drop from 14.7 percent today to 10.9 percent by 2014. Android would account for most of the switch, as it would overtake the BlackBerry and claim second place with 24.6 percent.

Nokia is still expected to have little hope of turning around Symbian's fate and could watch its share fall from 40.1 percent now to 32.9 percent. IDC places optimism in Windows Phone 7 salvaging Windows Mobile and would expect it to jump three points to 9.8 percent, although this would leave its fifth-place position virtually unchanged.

The study forecasts a smartphone boom over the next few years, starting with a 55.5 percent jump this year over 2009 and a 24.5 percent increase in 2011. Researchers still thought there would be enough fierce competition to keep five companies with significant share through 2014. Since customers are upgrading phones much more often and are more likely to switch, no one firm has an absolute lock, IDC said.

Whether or not the predictions hold true is uncertain and could be dictated by factors not included in the new studies. Morgan Stanley has warned of a much faster BlackBerry decline that could play into the hands of both Apple and Google. Likewise, the effects of the increasingly likely Verizon iPhone aren't yet known. Partial studies have shown a large number of willing iPhone buyers at Verizon and that some Android buyers, though not all, may be opting in solely because they can't afford or are unwilling to switch to AT&T.

by MacNN Staff



  1. Bobfozz

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Are ANY of these people willing to put their money with their mouth (keyboard) is? There are NO MORE viable 5 year plans. Maybe the article should be prefaced with "All things being equal", which they aren't any more... Smart businesses these days have Plans B and C.

    None of these guys get it. Apple's concern is mainly with fine products and they usually do well. If Android sells well for 25 different vendors that's fine, but Apple will outproduce any ONE of them including, this time, Microsoft.

  1. iphonerulez

    Joined: Dec 1969


    I wonder how they can predict precise

    market share of a platform three years into the future. It seems that BlackBerry's fate changed in about six months. It seems as though corporations are dumping BlackBerrys at a fairly high rate. Windows Mobile fate changed in about a year. Palm's fate also changed in less than a year. Any analyst that believes they can predict smartphone market trends with any accuracy is just guessing. All that has to come along is some new technology from a company and that would throw all predictions off and such things are very likely to happen within a two year period.

  1. xfrgtr

    Joined: Dec 1969



    Poor apple

  1. macnixer

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Theory of Constants

    While I really appreciate the IDC predictions as it would give reasons to the product makers to really look at where they are going wrong, I am surprised that all this is based on the current constants. We all know that statistics uses the current constants to predict the future but good statisticians would provide various views and would use a mean to derive the results.

    Whiter IDC?

  1. facebook_Tom

    Via Facebook

    Joined: Sep 2010



    "mobile OS market" -- did it include ipad then? ipod touch?

    someday they will get it -- the "phone" is just an app and a voice call is just a data stream in a data world

    I wonder what version of Android they were using? ;-)

  1. byRyan

    Joined: Dec 1969



    I wonder if these same people predicted the Kin would do well. 9.8% share for a beta OS that is lagging features compared to every other phone out there? And blackberry - only a 3% drop compared to apples 25% slide?!?!?

    You know - I think HP resurrecting palm has a better future then WinMo7 getting a one in 10 marketshare. These numbers are absolutely laughable and seemingly backed by no logical trends other then wild assumptions.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Joined: Dec 1969


    The predictions are relatively sound

    I think Nokia will drop further than just to 32%.

    who is the beneficiary? Windows Phone 7 and Android.

    RIM holding steady? I think they are more likely to drop too.

    I think Apple will hold steady, rather than drop. But its easy to see the explanation for the drop, in 2007 - smartphones were synonymous with 'high end', as the market matures, 'cellphone' and 'smartphone' will really just be the same thing. With Apple not even competing in the low end - they can't maintain marketshare - even if they certainly can increase overall sales and profits.

    It's easy to predict Android's success. Tablets? Nothing but the boomboxes of the cellphone world. They are phone's even if Apple intentionally crippled the iPad so that it couldn't take a call, without using a VoIP app - that won't last, they'll have to respond to the competition that's coming, and stop crippling their products on purpose.

    I agree with the above commentor, iPod touches are just crippled smartphones...its just another app device, it should be counted.

    Android is entering into every market Apple has - mp3 players, tablets - and at a whole spectrum of price points and products.

    I think by 2014, the Win Phone 7 turnaround will be maturing, and you'll see some of that same strategy with Windows taking hold.

  1. ggirton

    Joined: Dec 1969


    since they don't

    since they don't forecast the SIZE of the market of which the percentage shares are forecasted, there is no way for us to guess out of which nostril they are blowing their rings of smoke.

    I'm just saying.

    By 2014 the only real certainty is that everyone with a 2-year contract will have had at least 2 chances (or for some, 3 chances) to let it expire and go to new hardware, and/or a new carrier.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969



    I just am always stunned about how many anti-Apple analysts exist in this world. It seems that Bill Gates and company must be funding the MBA programs at various high-end institutions, thus pushing their anti-Apple message to all those future stock and business analysts. It's the only way to explain their obvious hatred and dismissal of Apple.

    Anyone with half a brain knows the numbers next to the name Apple always go up, and numbers on anything else all go down.

  1. testudo

    Joined: Dec 1969


    Re: yawn


    No, because they're talking smartphones, not tablets and not music players. Phones


    I'm sorry, why should they 'get it'? Right now, the "phone" is NOT an app. It is an actual product that most people buy specifically. Very few people "phone" using an app like Skype or Vonage or any of the rest.

    And if it is just a data stream in a data world, someone should tell the FCC, since they keep treating phone systems like they were special or something.

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