Sony PS3 may debut in 2007, if Xbox 360 lags

Sony may be eyeing the launch of the Xbox 360 closely in order to determine if …

Analysts at Wedbush Morgan Securities are saying that Sony could delay the PS3 into 2007, if the right market conditions allow for them to do so. What constitutes the right conditions? First, Sony needs to score a direct hit on the Xbox 360 launch by making the PS2 more attractive.

We believe that the company will attempt to disrupt the Xbox 360 launch with a price cut, and as a result may succeed in diverting attention away from the higher priced next generation console. We expect the Microsoft to attempt to engineer the Xbox 360 to be compatible with the current generation Xbox, and as a result, believe that Microsoft will maintain $149 pricing for its money-losing hardware.

The likely scenario is that when the Xbox 360 launches, the PS2 will drop to $99, and Sony will shout it from the rooftops. The pricing of the original Xbox may get a little more dicey, however, as the company tries to find a way to bundle more value into the $149 price tag, but I certainly don't expect to see an Xbox at $99 this holiday season, no matter what Sony does. So how do we get to 2007?

We expect Sony to defer a decision regarding PS3 launch until it is able to assess the likely success of the Xbox 360, and anticipate that Sony will make its decision shortly after the Xbox 360 launch. We do not expect the PS3 until mid 2006, at the earliest, and should Microsoft fail to garner sufficient software support to gain an insurmountable lead, we think that there is a possibility that the PS3 launch will slip into early 2007.

Note what's being said here. The issue isn't merely whether or not the Xbox 360 sells well, although this is Gamespot's reading. If Microsoft sells Xbox 360 units at breakneck speed, it doesn't matter. They're losing money on every one of those consoles. No, Wedbush sees a potential for Microsoft launching without adequate title support. All the console sales in the world can't make a popular platform, and a weak title list at launch can suck the air out of a room in a hurry.

Hello? It's Nintendo on Line 1. They said they want their poor DS launch back.

Whether or not a $99 PS2 is really going to make much of a dent in the Xbox 360 launch is a matter of opinion at this point, but I'll share mine: it won't. As for title support, a number have been announced, but it's not exactly clear how many will be on shelves come December. Is there real cause for concern?

Yes, there is. Microsoft's XNA is apparently no cakewalk, and Sony's solution will entail a steep learning curve, too, as Hannibal has noted. Indeed, a few weeks ago Gabe Newell bemoaned both consoles, saying "Your existing code, you can just throw it away."

"Most of the problems of getting these systems running on these multicore processors are not solved. They are doctoral theses, not known implementation problems. So it's not even clear that over the lifespan of these next generation systems that they will be solved problems. The amount of time it takes to get a good multicore engine running, the Xbox 360 might not even be on the market any longer. That should scare the crap out of everybody."

So, the issue isn't just title availability, but quality.

This brings us to why would Sony want to wait? There are three reasons. First of all, Sony is in the same boat as Microsoft as regards the difficulty of developing games for these next-gen consoles. More time should translate into higher quality games, and if Sony can afford to wait, then they should. Second, at $99, the PS2 itself could be sold for profit. Consoles are usually sold at a loss, and that money is made back (and then some, hopefully) by game sales. So, Sony could sit back and collect profits while building up a cache of PS3s for a later launch. This brings us to the third reason. Sony was embarrassed last year when they couldn't meet demand for the PS2. If Sony debuts the PS3 next year only to see more supply and demand problems, they'll lose customers to Microsoft.

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