Enlarging the European Union

Chicken or Kiev?

The European Union must not abandon its most successful policy when it comes to Ukraine

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Readers' comments




Ukraine certainly should be allowed to join the EU (and I think public opinion pretty much everywhere in Europe is in favour). The question however is when - and unfortunately this question is not being answered by the current EU leadership.It is absolutely vital to give Ukraine a time frame - even if it's 10-15 years, to encourage Ukrainians on the path of reform and provide clear target. Unfortunately EU's current attitude seems to be "You go ahead and reform now and we shall see later if we want to commit".


Dear EU guys,

First of all, if you will be keeping your hands off and will not encourage Ukraine for reforms you may get at your border very big country with lots of criminals, transit illegal immigrants, drugs, etc. Do you want this?
Secoundly, Russia is actively influence situation in Ukraine and will influence even more. Do you think this influence will be pro-European and pro-democratic? Do you want to get USSR near your borders again?
Finally - in case of no expansion in 15 or smth years US still will be #1 Economy, China will be #2 and India #3. Who will care than about EU opinion? How you're going to defend your political and economical interests?

OR - Continue expansion, give us precise terms & deadlines, encourage reforms and you will not get Problems #1&2. You will get more economic growth (most of EU's economic growth now happens in new memebers), bigger economical and political power, etc.
P.S. Regarding Ukraine's level of developement - some of the first space rockets were partly developed and created there, first computer in Europe (!), etc. We still produce the powerful airplanes in the world, for example. How many of new EU members can be proud of such high-level achivements? And yes, for the last years our GDP was growing faster than in any EU Country or Russia (!!!).


I don't understand why many European countries outside the EU think that the EU is the only path to peace and prosperity. There are so many examples of countries doing very well on their own, like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Chile, and Brazil. Turkey and Ukraine should reform, but for their own selves, and not for the sake of joining the EU.

As for the EU, I think instead of using the carrot of membership to encourage countries to modernize, why don't they use the carrot of large foreign aid? After all, didn't much of the "core" countries benefit from the Marshall Plan? Didn't much of East Asia benefit from Japanese foreign aid in the 70's and 80's?

Let's be honest about this EU membership carrot...most countries I'm sure don't really care to join the EU as members as they care about the financial aid packages from Brussels that comes with membership. And unlike the carrot of membership, the carrot of financial assistance can stop whenever a country is not progressing.


Nobody could pretend that Ukraine is ready for membership of the EU. That could take a decade or more.
Can we stop pretending that time solves all problems. I've been reading The Economist during the Clinton Israeli/Palestinian Negotiations saying that we are at least 5 years away from a Palestinian State.
Time solves nothing, but clarity and purpose solves everything.


I agree with the previous commentators that it will be beneficial for EU to take Ukraine on board (and for Ukraine too). But both EU and Ukraine need some time to prepare. EU still has to test its functionality after expanding from 15 to 27 states. It is also important to learn how to deal with “post-admission reform fatigue” that could be seen in the new members – Romania and Bulgaria are the best examples - because we could reasonably expect this to happen with Ukraine too. EU should make clear that breaching the rules will have costly consequences; otherwise, the future candidates (Ukraine included) will be encouraged to make shallow, Potemkinian reforms.
Because of its size, Ukraine will be even harder to handle if something will go wrong after admission. The organized crime in Ukraine is now at least one order of magnitude above what we can see in Bulgaria. It is not hard to impose some sanctions on small new members behaving badly. But it could have unpredictable consequences to do it on a relatively big country with a large Russian minority (8 mil.), bordering Russia itself. That is why EU should not make gross compromises on standards, the way it did for Bulgaria and Romania.
I agree that negotiating a time frame for admission is a good idea. That would define a clear path for a country that right now is in the grey area between EU and Russia. We could reasonably expect a 10 to 15 years period for both EU and Ukraine to prepare.


_Galaxy Jump
It is difficult to talk about "reaction of Russia" since, as about any other non-democratic country, the reaction of the people and that of rulers may, indeed must, diverge. I do not think Russian people would oppose to Ukraine joining. Quite the oposite: I think they would be glad to see their neigbours making success, just as any other normal people would. This, in any case, is true of Ukrainians' reaction to recent EU enlargements, when the Union actually came to our borders.
But the question that sprung to Ukrainian minds when we learned that, say, Poland has joined, was: if Poles could make it, than why not we? And the only plausible answer was: because our rulers are incompetent and unable to reform the country and defend its interests on international arena. We have, thought Ukrainians, to change our rulers in order to catch up with Poles. So, in my opinion, enlargement of the EU was one of the more important factors in shaping Orange Revolution (happened 6 months after Poland joined).
If this reasoning is correct, than it must follow that Russian (indeed, any authoritarian) rulers must be against enlargement and, in general, any consolidation of democracies anywhere, but excpecially on their borders.


I guess that the admission of Ukraine and Moldova to the EU cannot be considered before the inclusion of Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo. Unfortunately, it seems to me that there is a precise interest in some sphere of International Politics to upset or either isolate Russia, nonetheless to favour the US strategic interest, which is not necessarily ours. Just look at the map and see what I mean. The inclusion of Ukraine it's all about the old Western European complex of getting to Moscow passing by Stalingrad. Well, I tell you what: Communism is dead and the Cold War is well over, unless we try to push it back on the table with our stupid and arrogant decisions; such as the strategic shield in Estonia. Beside, it is highly dangerous to have a hole in what will be the middle of the Union, either strategically and security wise. However, I believe that for the time being, the EU institutions should look towards the consolidation of the borders and the consolidation of the Union itself that has already big problems of coexistence. Think about the Roma problem and the reaction of countries such as Italy, Germany, Austria and France to the problem of illegal immigration.



According to www.nationmaster.com, the murders rate (per 1,000 people) is twice as big in Ukraine than in Bulgaria (0.094 versus 0.044).
The 2:1 ratio is confirmed by “The United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems” (latest available data from 2003-2004): http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/CTS9_by_country_public.pdf

Of course, one may say that many murders are domestic, not mob related. On the other hand, organized crime is also involved in drug trafficking, human trafficking, money laundering etc. You may find an analysis of organized crime that puts a lot of countries into perspective: http://www.springerlink.com/content/57876q46x0j0035v/fulltext.pdf

Ukraine is 8 times larger than Bulgaria, and has inferior organized crime scores (meaning relatively worse crime). I believe it is reasonable to say that Ukrainian organized crime is one order of magnitude above the Bulgarian one.
(Even Ukrainian officials declare that hundreds of organized crime groups still operate in the country: http://kyiv.usembassy.gov/amcit_crimereport_eng.html)

I have to say that Ukrainian state seems more willing to fight. It has successfully brought to justice at least some of the contract killing murderers of recent years. Bulgaria still has much to do.


Thanks, klearvue: "the Ukraine" and "the Crimea" make no more sense than "the Russia", since the Russian and Ukrainian languages lack articles.My belief is that Ukrainians are much more European-orientated than some potential (or maybe some actual) EU-member citizens. I would welcome them, as I would welcome Turkish people, into the club. Russians? A continent too far; and who, then, would have won the cold war?


Ukraine is the largest European country after Russia by territory (and the largest whose territory is entirely in Europe) but the size is not really that important - Ukraine's importance for the EU stems from its strategic position in the unfortunately not yet very stable Black/Caspian Sea region. If this country is democratic and prosperous it will have a big impact on many EU-neighbouring countries (Russia, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, Azerbaijan and others) that to date have experienced plenty of corrupt and/or totalitarian rule.P.S. As someone familiar with this region I would suggest to use 'Ukraine' rather than 'the Ukraine' when the country is addressed - the (not entirely exact) analogy here would be 'Beijing' instead of 'Peking'

Tetyana Vysotska

Every enlargement leads to “devaluation” of the European Union – politically, economically, and structurally. The EU of 27 already has essential problems with internal decision-making process. Euro-Constitution (and now the Lisbon Treaty) ratification saga is a good prove of that. Further enlargement of the EU is to be carefully considered. If the European Union wants to save itself as a strong supranational organization claiming to be a centre of world power, new mechanisms of enlargement should be presented. The elaboration of these mechanisms will take some time.

But an enlargement-delay is not an obstacle for building the all-European free democratic space. It is already successfully building up – by the Council of Europe with its 47 member states, including Turkey, Ukraine, and also Russia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, to give just a few. If the EU is not ready for a “big enlargement”, it will be reasonable to strengthen its cooperation with the Council of Europe to work out new effective instruments to build free and democratic Europe of 47 without any dividing lines and prejudices.

P.S. Of course, it would be great if Ukraine become member of the EU immediately. At least, because of a possibility to travel freely inside the Schengen zone for every Ukrainian. But as today both Ukraine and the EU are not ready for that, we have to achieve our goals using available instruments, such as the ENP.


... and *precisely* because of this, some sort of "final frontier" will have to eventually take shape.

In the course of history, Europeans have occupied (in some manner or other) much of North Africa and the Middle East; inversely, the Moors ruled Spain for eight centuries, while the Turks occupied the Balkans for five. Does that make the former Africans, and the latter Europeans? It is perhaps best not to stir *that* cauldron...

Aid, engagement, trade-deals, collective bargaining, joint regulation, etc., ALL that has to be considered, along with and as an alternative to EU membership. Otherwise, "rejection" will always be perceived as a humiliating slap in the face. Helping one's next-door neighbors become *better* neighbors is ALWAYS good policy.


Ukraine and Moldova are good candidates for EU, because they are so close to West Europeans culturally, Economically and socially, it is poor and run-down West European country.However, economic problems and lack of governance means that real EU entry is many years away. Like my predecessors, I think major problem is non-functioning administration and incompetent politicians.


Thank you for this article. It is vital that the EU politicians are aware of the significance of Ukraine joining the EU. True, Ukraine is not yet ready to join the Union, however it should be its ultimate goal. This would be the best solution, both for the EU and Russia.



Lots of languages have 'the this' and 'the that' that English doesn't have, its why they're different languages. As for the recent obsession with calling countries/cities by their native names (mostly Indian ones come to mind) when are we going to have the French call it Edinburgh rather than Edinbourg, or London rather than Londres?

Galaxy jump

If you follow the Eurovision song contest (always good for a giggle) then you'll know than 'Europe' apparently has no bounds......


Well and good about Ukraine, except for one thing: I'm forever seeing that the EU, NATO, whoever must dangle membership in front of Ukraine, in order for the Ukrainian elite to carry out reforms.

Surely it should be the other way around! Do the reforms, then the road to membership opens up. I can't help but think that the reforms needed are, first and foremost, in _Ukraine's_ own interest.

As a UK citizen, I recognise the potential benefits of expanding the EU (despite the glaring risks,) but am fed up with this idea that countries such as Ukraine will try to hold other EU countries hostage: if you don't take us, we won't reform. "FIne," I answer, "don't and drown in your own problems."


May I inquire into what are your sources for comparing organised crime in Bulgaria and Ukraine?


The Ukraine is not Europe's second largest country in population after Russia. At 46 million, it ranks behind Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy.


As a German citizen working and living in Ukraine, I have to fully agree that Ukraine is far from ready for the EU. Going home always makes me feel like I'm living in a fairy-tale land of perfection.Of course, things here are changing at a staggering rate. Over the three years that I've been here, the country has moved westwards far more than I though would be possible in a decade. At the same time - as long as the problem of omnipresent corruption is not solved, things are not going to change for the better. In some cases, especially with the education system, corruption is presently destroying part of the basis for the future of a country that, in absence of large natural riches, has to work with its human capital.


Over the years, EU membership has acquired a bizarrely metaphysical dimension: its omniscient committees have sorted the wheat from the chaff in a gesture of biblical wisdom.

But this has had a VERY nasty side-effect: if you say, or even suggest that "good" equals "in", you imply none-too-subtly that the logical inverse is ALSO true, i.e. that "out" means "bad". This justly miffs the Turks, for example, who quite reasonably ask themselves (and the EU), "How so are we any *worse* than, say, the Bulgarians, or the Romanians?" And so it goes, on and on, with people trying to measure, to quantify, defend, and uphold their Level of Goodness-- with much self-serving, aimless relativism thrown in for good measure.

The EU *must* get off its high horse. It ought to define its "sphere of influence" GEOGRAPHICALLY, *not* with all this fanciful moralizing about "proper" conduct, or whatnot. After all memory of the EU's present-day preaching fades, those left "outside" will have nothing to feel sorry about. In fact, to return to the previous example, many Turks are *already* past feeling miffed, and are developing a healthy sense of "So what?" There IS no greater-comparative-goodness standard. Also, the confirmed-as-good Canadians... what to do with THEM? What about the Australians? Nice folks, too!

Perhaps, as the U.S. grants China preferential trading-partner-status as "most favored nation", so should the EU do with important "outsiders", such as Russia-- much to the benefit of both. The Ukraine will benefit EQUALLY, whether it becomes a member of a "morality-lite" EU, or a major trading partner with formally acknowledged rights. The same applies to many, many other countries.



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