Zambia’s election

Cobra v codger

Different in style, the main candidates are not that far apart in policy

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Readers' comments




An incredibly accurate analysis of the current Zambian political scape.
Michael Sata is popular among the masses because of his unique gifting of charisma coupled with a track record of results.Though he can be abrasive and crude, Zambians are intelligently discerning who is sincere and who is not.Though imperfect, the Post Newspaper is a fairly consistent beacon for the weakest members of society, telling the stories that should be told.Where would the corruption fight in Zambia be today without them? This is a paper for the voiceless and ordinary Zambian.In my view, they have every right to push for a candidate that will stand on the right side of justice.We have not forgotten the trampling of the London High Court judgement that would have returned at least $46m into the Zambian treasury,...and the list would go on!
The state controlled and government owned Times, Daily Mail and ZNBC could learn from such objective journalism.


I would kindly encourage the economist to check its sources a little better on the opinion polls published by the Post, which are a blatant fallacy (supposedly from a non-existent canadian university) and were quickly exposed as such by its Zambian readers. I would further challenge the economist to look further into the political activities of the Post, which are the real story of the Zambian election. With the editor of the countries largest newspaper tricking Zambia's ill founding president to sign a statement rejecting the legitimacy of the polls in anticipation of a government victory (and setting the stage for post-election violence from the supporters of the Cobra), the post is a perversion of journalistic integrity that makes the murdoch's phone hacking look mundane..


Your analysis is spot on, so let's extrapolate. Fact 1: 2001 election result - Sata = 3.4%; Fact 2: 2006 election result - Sata = 29.37%; Fact 3: 2008 election result - Sata = 38.64%; (Not-so-) Speculative guess: 2011 election result for Sata > 40%. We can't easily escape this reality. Sata is more popular now than he was in 2008. RB benefited from the sympathy vote for Levy Mwanawasa in 2008. It is HIGHLY unlikely that RB, on his own steam, will get anything like his 40% result in 2008. Prediction: 1. All minor candidates put together <= 10% of vote; 2. HH = 15%; 3. RB = 32%; 4. Sata = 43%. Margin of error +/- 2%. Rigging will prove too difficult this time, because of the large margin of Sata's genuine victory. Sata's problem will be one of managing expectations, and to avoid looking vindictive and petty in his attempts to dismantle the MMD for its years of corruption, however well intentioned. Zambia's job will be to ensure that his party rules for one term only. Uphill battles all round: much caginess and mistrust between the ruled and the ruler throughout the five years. Sata's health will not hold up under all this stress. Therefore, constitutional issues within 3 years.


King Cobra is a dangerous populist. My earliest memory of him was telling Maureen Nkandu (back in the day the leading TV News presenter in Zambia) in Bemba 'To shut up, what is a woman doing asking a man a question like that'. This was when he was still in UNIP but the tide was starting to turn - 1988 if I remember rightly.

May democracy prevail, but Zambians not elect a man who does not posess the right skills to lead Zambia to greater prosperity.


Great article. Sata, whilst highly popular in places such as the Copperbelt and Lusaka, has shown himself to be highly unpredictable and unreliable. He has changed stance on almost every issue from the Chinese to homosexuality simply so that he can attract more votes and money from sympathetic donors. Educated rational voters will see through this as well as the thinly veiled tribalistic positioning of the PF party. Candidates for parliament standing on the PF ticket had to pay over huge sums of cash to the PF leader to be adopted. All in all an RB victory will be good for the country and for everyone, as the purpoted change under PF, with the promises of "more money in your pocket" will not materialise even if Sata wins.


Whoever wins the election in Zambia, I'm sure things will be overall better even though they seem like they won't change that much. The winner will change things for the better because I'm sure they have been noticing the improvement economically in their country. They wouldn't want to diverge off the path.


This article is spot on. "...outcome is far from certain..." despite a 6-7% economic boom. It’s all about playing to the poor. That's why I think Sata will lose. The rural poor, the majority of our voting population, in most cases do not understand economic growth numbers and re lie on facts before their eyes like new schools, roads, government subsidised farming inputs like seeds, fertilizer etc. In addition the MMD, as always, have had too much money to campaign with hence the "Don't Kubeba" campaign by the PF. The PF has managed to campaign well in most of Zambia’s rural areas and have gained much support hence the tight race this time around. We are expecting riots if the PF lose as they will find it hard to accept the loss.

The only good thing about these elections however is that whatever the outcome, the economic policies of the two main parties are essentially the same as pointed out in the article...both main political parties are pro business.


Perhaps America can learn something from these two political rivals. While they may differ in policy, they, and their political parties, can work together to further their country's needs. It is obvious that this country is working hard to become stronger, since a few years ago, they were one of the poorest countries in the world and now they're pulling themselves out of that rut.


The two candidates, Mr. Sata and Mr. Banda seem to appeal to different levels of social classes. While Mr. Sata promises to act as the “champion of the poor” and keep the less fortunate’s best interest in mind, but how is he to be trusted? His past of constantly switching political parties shows he is not a dependable candidate because he is completely unreliable. His rumored notion of turning to China for campaign funds portrays him as a hypocrite whom cannot be trusted, as his actions and words do not match up. On the other hand, Mr. Banda promises “security, stability, and prosperity,” which is exactly what Zambia is looking for as their economy is slowly but surely growing to become more stable and powerful. Michael Sata’s charisma and popularity can only last if he continues to make realistic promises and remains true to his words. A strong candidate should have clearly defined goals and contributions towards bettering the country and spreading wealth amongst all citizens, not just middle class. I feel Banda will make a better candidate, however because they both have pro business policies, Sata and his popularity are more likely to win this one.

glen polo

it seems as if mr. sata has a very high chance of winning this poll since the economy went from being prosperous to being one of the poorest. Mr. Sata is promising “more jobs, less taxes and more money in your pockets” which is enough of a persuader for the poor to vote for him, and the majority of the population is poor assuring him a high chance of victory, especially when he has the reputation of "getting the job done" kind of guy.


Your article on Zambia’s forthcoming election makes several good points. It is, however, silent on two important aspects.

1. The two leading presidential candidates are similar with respect to age and political background, but contrasting in character and style. The retiring president is a people person. The leader of the opposition is an autocrat who cannot be worked ‘with’, but only ‘under’. Nor is violence alien to his nature. To elect him will therefore be risky. Indeed, there is a serious risk in electing either man, since both are in their seventies and by no means in robust health. So there could well be a repeat of Zambia’s recent experience of a president dying in office. This risk has been completely ignored by the electorate.
2. Secondly, in addition to their age, both candidates and their parties are steeped in a background where personal benefit rather than public interest is the overriding ambition. Zambia badly needs political leaders belonging to a younger generation and possessing personal integrity.

From: Lee



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