User Blog: Mr. Snrub Posts made by Mr. Snrub on Is Liverpool Doomed without Suarez? A Q&A Session Mr. Snrub Wed, 02 Jul 2014 09:07:36 -0400 <p><b>Q: Isn't it so awesome that Liverpool scored over a hundred goals last year? That's amazing! Thanks you, Luis, you're the best and should never ever leave! Liverpool should've won the damn title in a right and just world, right?</b></p> <p>A: Scoring a plethora of goals is certainly fun, entertaining for the spectator, and quite the achievement for a side. However, there's also the small matter of not just putting the spherical object in the other team's net thing, but preventing the other side from putting the spherical object in your own net thing. Liverpool was quite bad at the prevention part.</p> <p><b>Q: Okay, what is reasonably expected of a title contending side, as far as scoring goals, conceding goals, and goal differential is concerned? </b></p> <p>A: In looking at the past 19 seasons of the Premier League, since the 95/96 season that was the first with 20 teams, title-winning sides averaged 80.84 goals for, 32.05 goals against, and a goal differential of 48.79. Medians for those figures were quite similar, with 79 GF, 33 GA, and 47 GD.</p> <p>Obviously, Liverpool was quite above the standard as far as scoring goals is concerned, by scoring 101. In the past 19 years, only Pellegrini's City side from last season and Ancelotti's 09/10 <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Chelsea</a> squad scored more, with 102 and 103, respectively. Of course, both of these title winning sides were much better than Liverpool was last season, conceding on 32 and 37 goals respectively, as opposed to <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Liverpool's</a> 49.</p> <p>In fact, Liverpool's 49 GA wouldn't have just been the most ever for a title winning side in this era, it was <i>tied with Wenger's 11/12 3rd place <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Arsenal</a> for most goals amongst the top four in the past 19 years. </i></p> <p>If Liverpool had managed to win the title this past season, it would've been an aberration of the highest order. Which is okay, aberrations exist in football, but the takeaway is that Liverpool can improve in certain areas...</p> <p><b>Q: Okay, clearly Liverpool can't afford to sell Suarez, right? He carried LFC out of mid table purgatory! Surely he'll stay. We'll fall out of the top four without him, right?</b></p> <p>A: Not necessarily. If we do a similar analysis of teams from the past 19 seasons that finished in fourth place, the averages are 63.95 GF, 38.37 GA, and 25.58 GD. Medians on those figures are again similar, with 67 GF, 37 GA, and 27 GD. (**<i>note: even with extracting the extreme outlier that was the 04/05 <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="">Everton</a> side that finished fourth with a goal differential of -1, the mean and median goal differentials are 27.06 and 27.5, respectively.</i>)</p> <p>Which is to say, even if Liverpool's goal production over an entire season drops 20-30 from last year to this year, they're still within the lines of what historically, on the balance of probabilities, is what top four sides are expected to do. The goals conceded thing, on the other hand...</p> <p><b>Q: Dude, look at Spurs. They sold Bale, and they dropped off. Selling your best player is stupid and dumb, end of!</b></p> <p>A: That wasn't phrased in the interrogative, but whatever, I'll address your point.</p> <p>Tottenham scored 66 goals with Bale in the lineup in 12/13, and 55 without in 13/14. They were barely amongst the standard for a top-four attack with Bale, and were clearly below the standard without him.</p> <p>But they have issues on the other end of the spectrum: they conceded 46 in 12/13 and 51 in 13/14. Though that isn't much worse than Liverpool...</p> <p>At the end of the day, Liverpool is in much better position to deal with shipping Suarez to Spain than Spurs were when they shipped Bale to Iberia, especially if Sanchez is coming the other way.</p> <p><b>Q: So what is your point exactly?</b></p> <p>A: My point is: Liverpool don't need to replace all the goals that they had with Suarez in the lineup. They need to sort the damn midfield and stop leaking so many goals.</p> <p>My general hypothesis is that if Liverpool scores 20 less goals next season, whilst conceding 20 less goals next year, they can reasonably be expected, on the balance of probabilities, to be a more realistic title contender than they were in the past campaign.</p> <p>If you consider some of the true golden standards of this era, Wenger's unbeaten "Invincibles" of 03/04 (73 GF, 26 GA), or Mourinho's once beaten Chelsea in the following year (72 GF, 15 GA), what made them great wasn't their mind melting attack as much as it was their midfield and defense. That's not the only way to do it of course, as the aforementioned 09/10 Chelsea and 13/14 City had much more potent attacks coupled with defenses and midfields that were still quite great.</p> <p>The best Liverpool side of this era, Benitez's 08/09 squad, scored 77 and conceded only 27. Of course, it's worth stating again that aberrations can and do exist in football, and this Liverpool side failed to beat a United team to the title that, by only scoring 68 goals, was tied with Wenger's 97/98 Arsenal for most being the most anemic amongst title winning sides in the era.</p> <p><b>Q: How would a 14/15 Liverpool without Suarez measure up to the 08/09 Liverpool? Could they score the 80 or more goals that you said are, on average, required to win the title in most years?</b></p> <p>A: I'm inclined to think that, in terms of goal production, Rodgers has more tools at his disposal than Rafa ever did with the cowboys.</p> <p>I would be so bold as to say that current Sturridge and 08/09 Torres are at the very least even, and at best it could be said that Sturridge is of higher quality. Torres scored 24 in 33 in his first season at LFC going into the 08/09 campaign, and contributed 14 in 24 in an injury-plagued 08/09 season. Sturridge has scored 31 in 43 in his season and a half at Liverpool going into the next campaign.</p> <p>Would one rather have a half season of Keane, Kuyt, and Ngog as backup strikers, or have Lambert, Borini, Sanchez (if deployed as a nine), and/or (insert additional striker purchase here)? Lambert was never as good as Keane in his prime, but might prove to be better than Keane was when he arrived at Liverpool. In any case, this is a situation that will likely be addressed further going into next season, but I anticipate Liverpool having better striker depth than in 08/09.</p> <p>Would you rather have the attacking midfield and wing options of Babel, Riera, Benayoun, Gerrard, Kuyt, and...El Zhar? Or would you prefer Sanchez, Sterling, Lallana, Coutinho, Suso (if he stays), Henderson (if deployed as an AM for industry), or whatever else may come? I have to say, I'm excited by the potential of the latter. I mean, 08/09 Gerrard was all-World, and Kuyt was a legendary workhorse with a great goal return, but the potential of this group, especially IF you can get Sanchez in exchange for Bitey...</p> <p><i>There is reason to believe that there is 80+ goal potential in Liverpool next season, even without Mr. McNibblestein.</i></p> <p><b>Q: Okay, so we have to fix that defense though. So what kind of defenders do we need to buy?</b></p> <p>A: Well honestly, the central defenders are probably okay. Probably. Glen Johnson is a bum but could maybe find his head in his rear end at some point, and Flanagan is a serviceable backup. Enrique returns, but we could always use more fullbacks...</p> <p>Real issue of course is the midfield. We're a long way away from the days of Mascherano and Alonso...</p> <p><b>Q: HOW DARE YOU! STEVEN GERRARD IS A SAINT! HE CAN PLAY 90 MINUTES A MATCH EVERY MATCH OF THE SEASON AS LONG AS HE WANTS DAMMIT!</b></p> <p>A; Oh for fuck's sake...</p> Liverpool Linked to Brazilian Attacker in January! Mr. Snrub Tue, 10 Sep 2013 14:35:56 -0400 <p>Multiple sources at Melwood have confirmed that Liverpool Football Club are tracking the up-and-coming Brazilian five-a-side star attacker "El Perro Diablo." The dimunitive 2'3" Brazilian canine striker is known throughout Rio for having a muzzle for goal, and is being targeted by Brendan Rodgers to bolster <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Liverpool's</a> attack as they look to secure a spot in next year's Champions League competition.</p> <p>When reached for comment, Rodgers was not hesitant in praise of El Perro Diablo, stating:</p> <blockquote> <p>"There's no question that we have plenty of attacking players who can use incisiveness in the final third, but with Luis no longer willing to fight for his life for the city, we desperately need a new attacker who is willing to use his incisors in the final third. El Perro Diablo brings that, and much, much more. He'll give the extra 137% necessary to make those runs into the box, and is a lot less brittle than Borini. He also has paws instead of hands, so even if it takes him a season and a half to demonstrate any amount of competency, we won't have to worry about him shushing the Kop."</p> </blockquote> <p>Some critics have questioned whether El Perro Diablo can secure a work permit to come to England, but Ferguson Association Chairman Greg Dyke has assured that the deal can be approved:</p> <blockquote> <p>"As long as foreign players are tested regularly for rabies, yeah, sure, they can always be approved for a transfer. We made a mistake not testing Suarez when he came over from Ajax, and were fortunate that Ivanovic didn't sue us! But we'll make sure to do our due diligence this time...</p> <p>"Speaking of due dilligence, I swear, if that lousy, rotten, dirty South American so much as allegedly makes reference to the color of El Perro Diablo's fur, even if it's meant in a friendly manner, I'll arbitrarily exile him to St. Helena for life! But don't worry, I won't <a href="" style="background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 16px;">slowly murder him with trace elements of arsenic in his wine</a>. Wink wink. Hey, make sure you don't include those winks in your article."</p> </blockquote> <p>Liverpool will have to fend off competition for the player in January, as Borussia Dortmund and <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Tottenham Hotspur</a> are expected to be linked with the canine attacker as soon as this article is published. Below is video footage of El Perro Diablo plying his trade, where he clearly demonstrates more attacking awareness and willingness to get into threatening areas in twenty seconds than <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Stewart Downing</a> has in his entire career:</p> <p><iframe src="//" height="315" width="560"></iframe></p> SUSO WATCH: Match II Almeria @ Getafe Mr. Snrub Sat, 24 Aug 2013 00:32:48 -0400 <p>Last Friday evening, Suso picked up his second assist in as many matches as Almeria dropped points in disappointing fashion once again in a 2-2 draw with Getafe. Suso once again featured heavily as a right winger for Almeria, albeit with a fifteen minute spell on Almeria's left starting around the tenth minute of action. Suso made a bit of a defensive error around the 15th minute while he was on the left, over-pursuing Getafe right back Juan Valera. Valera was able to easily bypass Suso and rip an impressive shot, though fortunately for Suso and Almeria, the shot was just wide of the far post.</p> <p>Suso did make a much better defensive contribution in the 23rd minute. Getafe midfielder Angel Lafita was carrying the ball across the center line in a threatening counterattack after Almeria conceded possession. Suso tracked back and attempted to win the ball, but lacking a bit of pace to regain possession, he instead pulled at Lafita's arm, earning a foul and a yellow card in the process. It was a professional type of foul for a young player, an event which demonstrated not only match intelligence but a desire to track back and help defend. Almeria would regain shortly thereafter and renew their attack, allowing for Suso to make an incisive run in the 24th minute. Suso struck solidly with his weaker right foot, but the shot just whizzed past the near post.</p> <p>After the 25th minute, Suso returned to the right flank and remained there for the rest of the match. Shortly after the switch, the Liverpool loanee made his brightest contribution of the match in the 30th minute, picking up the ball in a narrow position and quickly feeding in-form striker Rodri with a perfectly weighed pass for a 1-0 lead. The lead would not last long, as Getafe would equalize in the 37th minute on the strength on a <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Pablo Sarabia</a> cross finished by Lafita. Despite this, Almeria would carry a 2-1 lead into the half thanks to their captain, midfielder Fernando Soriano. Suso played a key part in the buildup to the goal, doing well to feed midfielder Verza on the right flank, who then crossed to midfielder Alexi Vidal, whose shot was blocked. The ball pinged around the box and fell to Soriano, who buried his chance to regain the lead before half time. Worth noting is that right before the break, Suso got away with a forearm to the face of a Getafe player, but despite already being on a yellow, he was allowed to stay on the pitch for the second half.</p> <p>The second half saw Getafe perhaps unfortunate to get a match-clinching third goal, as Getafe keeper Moya was in fine form. Suso had a well-taken right footed shot in the 63rd minute that was well saved by Moya. Almeria would rue not getting a third, as Almeria fullback Rafita fouled <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Getafe's</a> Lafita (try not getting that confused) inside the box around the 84th minute. Getafe attacking midfielder Diego Castro had to convert his penalty twice as his first effort was undone by an encroaching teammate, but despite Almeria keeper Esteban guessing correctly the second time, Getafe got their late equalizer to force Almeria to drop points once again.</p> <p>For Suso, it was another promising performance along with some concerns. As mentioned above, the loanee made a bit of an error over-pursuing Valera and allowing for a good scoring chance for Getafe, and was also perhaps fortunate to not be sent off close to the end of the first half in getting away with a forearm on a yellow. Aside from that, there was evidence of improvement. Work rate was a concern in the <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Villarreal</a> match, but with Getafe having more of the ball than Villarreal, Suso stepped up his defensive game, breaking up a counterattack with a smart (though punished with a yellow) foul, and also attempting seven more tackles and winning three more than he did in his first match with Almeria:</p> <p><a href=""><img class="photo" src="" alt="0qhbd_medium"></a></p> <p>via <a href=""></a></p> <p>Suso also was more aggressive, and more successful, in taking on opposition defenders in this match, putting his dribbling skills to use and demonstrating increased comfort with wing play:</p> <p><a href=""><img class="photo" src="" alt="0qwvy_medium"></a></p> <p>via <a href=""></a></p> <p>Altogether, it was generally a strong performance for Suso, who picks up yet another assist in his brief time with Almeria. Highlights compiled by LFC Tiki Taka can be found <a href="">here</a>. The yellow card incident can be found around the :33 mark, the incisive run and chance occurs around the :55 mark, the assist around the 1:45 mark, and the buildup to Almeria's second around the 1:55 mark. There's also Suso's shot on target at 3:30, and a silly dribble move around 3:10.</p> <p>Almeria will look to finally pick up their first win of the La Liga campaign today at 1700 EST/2200 BST against fellow recent promotee and reigning Segunda Division champion Elche. BeIN en Espanol will have delayed coverage at 2100 EST in the United States.</p> Breaking Down Suso's Almeria Debut Versus Villarreal Mr. Snrub Mon, 19 Aug 2013 21:41:20 -0400 <img alt="" src="" /> <p>On Monday evening, Suso made his La Liga debut for newly promoted Almeria in a tough 3-2 defeat to fellow recent promotee Villarreal. Wearing the #17 for his new club, Suso began the night on the left wing, but after only receiving four passes in the first 14 minutes of the match was moved to the right wing, where he instantly became more influential, providing width on the right but also cutting in on his stronger left foot:</p> <p align="center"><a href=""><img class="photo" src="" alt="0phdz_medium"></a></p> <p>In the 39th minute, Suso played a perfectly-weighted ball to the onrushing Almeria right fullback Rafita, who in turn fed striker Rodri for a 1-0 lead, which Almeria took with them into halftime. The lead evaporated away in the 65th minute when Villarreal substitute Jonathan Pereira took a shot that deflected off Almeria left back Sebastian Dubarbier and into the net. Almeria would regain the lead in the 65' with Rodri finishing a nice cross from Suso, aided by a poor trap by Villareal and some usage of hand from Rodri. However, Almeria proved unable to retain this lead despite being the better side for most of the match (with possession in favor of Almeria 56.5% to Villarreal's 43.5%, and passing statistics in favor of Almeria 342-231), wilting under Villarreal's pressure and conceding late goals to Giovanni dos Santos and Pereira in the 83rd and 86th minutes, respectively. Suso had one bright moment at the end of the match, curling in a quality ball to Almeria substitute forward Oscar Diaz, but Diaz was unable to finish the potential equalizer.</p> <p>The match was a tough one for Almeria, who may grow to regret the loss more and more as their campaign to stay in La Liga after promotion goes on. For Suso, it was a bright start to his season at Almeria, albeit with some concerns. On the attacking end, Suso had bright moments in providing a primary and secondary assist on each of Rodri's goals, and was perhaps unfortunate not to have a second assist late in the match. His shooting left something to be desired, as he telegraphed his first of three shots, allowing it to be easily blocked. His final two shots were off target, one decidedly uglier than the other. Suso's passing numbers were 36 of 46 for a 78% completion, and he was tied for the lead in the game for successful final third passes, completing 17 of 24. But factoring in his one successful cross out of ten and one successful corner (a short corner pass) out of four, Suso's total passing was only 37 of 56, for a 66% completion rate. Granted, Almeria's tactics are a bit more static than Rodgers' fluid <a href="" class="sbn-auto-link">Liverpool</a> side, but it is worthwhile to keep an eye on this as the season progresses.</p> <p align="center"><a href=""><img class="photo" src="" alt="0pc4k_medium"></a></p> <p> </p> <p>Defensively speaking, Suso was credited for two interceptions and two successful tackles by Stats Zone (see above) but Squawka only has him credited for the one on the right side of the pitch, which is honestly the only tackle I remember him making. He did track back well that one occasion, but a look at his heat map and that of his counterpart, Villareal LB Jaume Costa, indicates that his work-rate perhaps could have been better:</p> <p align="center"><a href=""><img class="photo" src="" alt="C_medium"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href=""><img class="photo" src="" alt="C_medium"></a></p> <p>Suso's workrate has been a concern from some, and while it wasn't truly exploited yesterday, it could be a larger issue whenever he comes up against one of the better full backs in La Liga. In any case, he wasn't as diligent as <a href="">Henderson proved to be against Stoke on Saturday</a>, though Villarreal did see less of the ball than Stoke did against Liverpool.</p> <p>Below is a clip of Suso in action yesterday by LFC Tiki Taka (H/T manuyaji), with the buildup to Almeria's first goal beginning around the 2:35 mark and the assist to Rodri around the 5:00 mark:</p> <p align="center"><iframe src="//" height="315" width="420"></iframe></p> <p>Suso and Almeria return to action on Friday as they visit Getafe, last year's 10th place finishers in La Liga. Match time is set for 1900 BST/1400 EST, with coverage in the United States <strike>on beIN Sport.</strike> <i>edit: not on beIN because they're apparently showing Monaco-Toulouse instead. It's premiering on beIN Sport en Espanol at 2400 EST/0500 BST Saturday, so if you want to watch it live...</i></p> Xabi and Arbeloa kick (American) footballs Mr. Snrub Sat, 11 Aug 2012 20:22:59 -0400 &lt;iframe allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;http:&#x2F;&#x2F;;embed&#x2F;9avRBdH5LiU&quot; height=&quot;315&quot; width=&quot;455&quot;&gt;&lt;&#x2F;iframe&gt; <div class="source source-img"><p><p>Xabi and Arbeloa kick (American) footballs</p></p></div> Rafa previews England-Italy Mr. Snrub Sat, 23 Jun 2012 03:24:37 -0400 <h3 class="link-title"><a href="" rel="nofollow">Rafa previews&amp;nbsp;England-Italy</a></h3> <div class="description"><p><p>Effusive praise for Gerrard and Thiago Motta. Rafa also joins in on the "hey Torres is getting good again guys, for real, no joke this time" thing.</p></p></div>