Whitney Tilson Defends The Netflix Short That Is Killing His Portfolio* http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-tilson-short-netflix-2010-12/comments en-us Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 -0500 Sat, 27 Dec 2014 03:09:43 -0500 Gus Lubin http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d229b46ccd1d5e919120000 Sam Mon, 03 Jan 2011 23:00:05 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d229b46ccd1d5e919120000 Even if its overvalued...I remember Peter Lynch saying I never short becuase I never know how stupid will be or how long they will be stupid. I remember Tilson said Berkshire was worth 100,000+ in.....1998.... woops. Its there now anyhow,just a short matter of time...13 years http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0d2319cadcbb2361130000 toofunny Sat, 18 Dec 2010 16:09:45 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0d2319cadcbb2361130000 NetFlix was one of his top short positions back in December 2009...when it was $50 http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whitney-tilson-year-end-letter Not many prudent investors would continue to hold let alone defend a Short position that goes from $53- $180 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bb70dcadcbb382f080000 RBW Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:16:28 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bb70dcadcbb382f080000 FredZ, I'm sure the fundamentals are awesome, but I"m talking purely abt the stock price. I've been in this business for a long time and one thing I can tell you I've learned is that no matter how great the story is, when the market corrects, everything corrects with it. What comes up must come down. Am I saying it isn't a good long term story? Absolutely not, I think it's a compelling model. From a pure price perspective, however, I have seen enough to know that when a high flier like this starts to see some momentum to the down side, it crashes hard. Thus, the parabola... http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bb51fccd1d5e759130000 No position... Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:08:15 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bb51fccd1d5e759130000 I think the CFO selling shares is a fair bearish point but that seems to have been priced into the stock. Also is it that hard to understand why someone who had been w/ a company for a long period of time & chooses to leave would then decide to sell their shares after a huge run up in the PPS over the last several years? 3 other things I believe the bulls have going for them where NFLX is concerned: 1. S&P rebalancing (there is no way in hell that the market Gods would decide to add NFLX to it soon if they thought the co. was headed substantially lower - The FED has made it very clear at this point that they want stocks to rally) 2. Every time one of their competitors comes out trashing the company's business model that just confirms that NFLX's management must be doing something right. 3. CNBC has spent a lot time making a bearish case for the stock but it should be obvious to anyone with a brain why that is... ...Doesn't General Electric own a piece of Hulu?! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bb178cadcbb8928150000 FredZ Fri, 17 Dec 2010 13:52:39 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bb178cadcbb8928150000 OK If you think streaming is a bull shit technology then short it. Otherwise Netflix's management is strong, brand is strong and has immense flexibility to expand on price, geography and content. http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0baedcccd1d5d159090000 FredZ Fri, 17 Dec 2010 13:41:32 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0baedcccd1d5d159090000 Think parabola? Think again. Netflix US membership is still scratching the service. Much less any internationalization beyond Canada. http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bad9dcadcbb4026050000 RBW Fri, 17 Dec 2010 13:36:12 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0bad9dcadcbb4026050000 Fundamentals may be great, but it can't keep going like it has this year forever. Think parabola. http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0b9fecccd1d5a057040000 Critical Thinker Fri, 17 Dec 2010 12:37:48 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0b9fecccd1d5a057040000 If the fundamentals are so good, why did Netflix's CFO recently sell most of his shares, and then leave the company? Hmm... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/netflix-cfo-who-has-been-stock-dumping-rampage-leaving-company http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0b9575ccd1d5c3550f0000 Tom Fri, 17 Dec 2010 11:53:09 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0b9575ccd1d5c3550f0000 "Whitney Tilson likes to broadcast his shorts, which of course helps the position" No way, it's the opposite, and he's being very foolish. Other funds now know that they keep driving up Netflix and increasing the pain on T2 and eventually they will be forced to capitulate and cover, driving a further rally they can sell into. http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0b942dccd1d59055080000 No position... Fri, 17 Dec 2010 11:47:40 -0500 http://www.businessinsider.com/c/4d0b942dccd1d59055080000 ...But... Fundamentals for NFLX are still quite good: Debt (236.69M) not in excess of it's market cap (9.58B) Current ratio above 1.5 (if only slightly) Qtrly Revenue Growth over 25% Less than a 100 mil shares outstanding (52.26M) ROE well above 25% (68.21%) EPS is up 50.11% this year And a standard P/E calculation says the PPS is currently worth (as of Dec. 17th 2010) 264.20 Only negative I can see is that the company has a high PEG But the pros clearly outweigh the cons from a value perspective. I'm hoping to see a pullback to 118.82 so I can get in... ...but I doubt my wish will come true regardless of what the shorts are saying. Happy Holidays!