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Is a Microsoft Tablet the Impossible Dream?


In the absence of fact, rumor rushes in. So as we sit here counting down the hours until Microsoft shows us exactly what its “major announcement” is really all about, countless ideas of what it could be have bubbled to the surface. None, though, is more prominent than a Microsoft-built tablet, something I like to call the WinPad.

When we first got the invite, I was convinced that this would not be a Windows 8-related announcement. Microsoft had just delivered its latest nearly finished Windows 8 OS release preview for desktops, laptops, hybrids and tablets running Intel CPUs. It has not, though, shown us as much of Windows RT.


Almost two years ago, Microsoft revealed a radical plan: Windows would, for the first time ever, run on CPUs other than those based on the Intel-developed x86 architecture. Windows Head Steven Sinofsky went on to demonstrate Windows running on ARM-based prototype motherboards and stand-alone displays.

The implication, though, was clear. The next generation of Windows for tablets would not be a kludge. It would be written to run as a “System on a Chip” (SoC). This also represented a bifurcation of the Windows platform — to run on standard PCs and also these ultra-slim, light and keyboard-less devices, there would essentially be two major versions of the OS. On the other hand, another version already exists and it’s the one that likely started all this: Windows Phone. That touch-screen-friendly rewrite of Windows Mobile is the great uncle of Windows 8 (at least its metro design) and helped prove to the world that Microsoft could develop effective touch-screen interfaces.

So it’s no secret that Microsoft is bringing these Windows RT (no one never call it "Windows 8 RT") tablets to market with partners (they showed off a bunch of them earlier this month at Computex). That’s why I didn’t peg Windows 8 devices as the centerpiece of this Microsoft mega-event. But there’s a new wrinkle in the rumor factory.

Could Microsoft be building its own Windows RT tablet?

As soon as the rumor rose up (apparently from a “reliable source,” according to Hollywood Blog The Wrap — did we mention that the event is in Los Angeles?), people started calling it an “iPad Killer.” Not because it necessarily would be one, but because it’s fun to say it. No matter what happens Monday, Microsoft is not introducing an iPad killer. It could be a competitor, but Microsoft and Apple approach things in very different ways, and I have trouble seeing how this would work.

Apple actually designs and builds all its own hardware. From the iPad to the MacBook Pro Retina, they all come from the House of Apple (though most are assembled in China). Microsoft, for the most part, does not build its own hardware. Instead it builds the software and licenses it to partners.

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In doing so, Microsoft often cedes control over the end product. You find evidence of this in every Windows PC loaded with crapware.

With Windows Phone, Microsoft has exerted much tighter control over the hardware, essentially forcing its hardware partners into delivering a consistent experience. It’s been effective.

Microsoft sort of built the failed Zune (Toshiba built it and Microsoft sold it) and it does build the Xbox 360. It also builds mice and the wildly successful Kinect, the motion controller for Xbox.

In other words, Microsoft could build a tablet. The problem is, it has shown no indication that it wants to. Years ago Microsoft teased us with the idea of a radically new, home-grown, dual-screen tablet called the Courier. It never arrived. Everything we’ve seen since then indicates it will be business as usual, with Windows RT tablets and "convertibles" from Samsung, Asus, Acer, Lenovo and others.

If Microsoft unveils its own tablet hardware, or WinPad, Monday, it will up-end the Windows business and perhaps anger all of its Windows OEM partners. Is that a risk Microsoft is willing to take? Is it even one consumers want?

As I said earlier, this is just one rumor (though clearly the strongest). Other possibilities remain. No one has, to my satisfaction, explained why the event is in Los Angeles. Does the location indicate this is more of an entertainment event? Another strong rumor is the possibility of a Microsoft e-reader. My old friend Mary Jo Foley is putting her money on this one. Xbox 720 is a very dark horse, as is the Kinect update. Some believe it’s an acquisition event (RIM, Nokia, Yammer). I wouldn't recommend putting your money on that one. Check out the poll below and vote on your pick for the big event.

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