Edition: U.S. / Global

POLITICS: IN THE CROWD;In Michigan, Blue-Collar Support Is Drifting From G.O.P.

Published: March 18, 1996

In a shot-and-beer tavern hazy with cigarette smoke, a couple of auto workers relaxed on bar stools after cashing paychecks fattened by overtime, and toasted a politician neither had supported four years ago.

"I wouldn't have my job if it wasn't for Bill Clinton," said Gregg Schulte, 36, a $22-an-hour electrician at a Chrysler engine plant here that has increased production during the past four years.

His pal and co-worker, Richard Pasik, 30, put it squarely: "If you're a working man and you don't vote for Clinton, you're just not thinking things through."

Both men cast protest votes for Ross Perot in 1992, when each was bitter about working at much lower-paying, no-benefits, nonunion construction jobs. But when the economy began to pull out of a recession -- soon after Mr. Clinton took office -- they landed coveted Chrysler jobs.

Trenton is one of the heavily industrial towns south of Detroit, a stretch known as Downriver that is emblematic of the white, working-class swing vote that Ronald Reagan successfully courted in the 1980's, and that Senator Bob Dole will need in November if the Republicans are to take back the White House.

Republicans once were as scarce here as foreign cars, and about as popular. Sizable numbers of industrial workers have been defecting from the Democratic Party for more than two decades, starting with the law-and-order campaign used by Richard M. Nixon to rally "the silent majority" in 1968.

In one sign of the changing times here, Jim DeSana, the longtime Democratic Mayor of Wyandotte, recently switched to the Republican Party to run against Representative John D. Dingell, a Democrat who entered Congress 40 years ago.

To Republicans here, the Democratic Party and the labor union hierarchy that supports it are wildly out of step with a conservative rank-and-file that is fed up with welfare abuse, affirmative action and gay people in the military.

But if the Republicans are counting on red-meat cultural issues to inspire waves of angry white men in hard hats to reject the Democrats for Mr. Dole, they would probably be disheartened by the talk in the Trenton Taproom, a popular haunt among auto workers, construction tradesmen and police officers.

Talking politics after the first-shift closing whistle on Friday, just about everybody at the horseshoe-shaped bar said they were going to vote their pocketbooks in November. And if anyone here intended to vote Republican, it went unsaid.

"Oh, there are a few guys at the plant who say they'll vote against Clinton," Mr. Pasik said, snuffing out a cigarette. "They start making big money, you know, and they think they're Republicans. But I tell 'em, 'Don't forget your background. It wasn't the Republicans who brought good money to union workers.' "

Voter surveys illustrate the situation facing Mr. Dole. White male blue-collar voters backed Republicans over Democrats by two to one in the 1992 and 1994 elections. They now favor Mr. Dole over Mr. Clinton, but by 49 percent to 41 percent. Among union voters, they back Mr. Clinton 53 percent to 35 percent for Mr. Dole.

To be sure, it is a long time to November, and some economic indicators suggest a downturn that could affect the political picture. But for now, judging from interviews with about three dozen voters in the vast industrial corridor along the Detroit River, Mr. Clinton has solid support.

Almost everybody here seems to be looking past the primary on Tuesday, with Mr. Dole expected to trounce Patrick J. Buchanan, who once had high hopes for Michigan, where his protectionist stance on trade might be expected to score points. But Mr. Buchanan is viewed with suspicion among many auto workers, who have not forgotten the revelation four years ago that the made-in-America populist owned a Mercedes-Benz.

Sandy Verduce, 50, who works part-time as a clerk in a Trenton clothing store, said she would vote for Mr. Dole on Tuesday, calling him "the least offensive Republican."

Mr. Buchanan, she added, "runs around in a cowboy hat, saying things about certain ethnic groups that really cross the line -- I mean, the man could be sued."

At the Sunrise Donut Shop in Southgate, John Simko, a 72-year-old retired auto worker, put down his cherry turnover at the mention of President Clinton, grimacing as if he had lost his appetite.

"I'm not crazy about Dole, but I'll vote for any Republican ahead of Clinton," said Mr. Simko, who added that he quit the Democratic Party when it nominated George McGovern in 1972. "I myself was a card-carrying Democrat. The Democrats are giving away the country -- all this welfare."

Only one thing could stop Mr. Simko from voting Republican. "If they pick Colin Powell for V.P., no way!" he said. "I can't tell you why -- but it's not because he's black."

Mayor DeSana of Wyanodotte, the Democrat-turned-Republican, first won office here 38 years ago, and then served as state senator and county commissioner, before returning to City Hall, said the class-based politics of Representative Dingell and President Clinton was outdated.

"People around here are really upset about welfare," said Mr. DeSana, the son of a tavern owner. "You want to see a working-class guy get upset? Go stand outside the factory gates, and wait for some tired fellow to walk out after his shift, and then ask him about people who sit home and collect welfare."

But right in the Mayor's own office, Terry Martin, a 28-year-old union laborer mending some electrical wires, scoffed at the notion that blue-collar people belong in the Republican Party.

"The Republicans just try to divide working people," Mr. Martin said. "And the Republicans are very preachy. They want to stick their nose in personal issues. When I was younger, I was involved in an abortion. And God only knows where I'd be if I had to become a husband and father when I was 22 -- when I shouldn't have been."

Nancy Collier, 45, whose job in a warehouse was recently eliminated in a corporate downsizing, said she had been "dead-set on voting Republican." But she is now thinking about backing President Clinton, although she would "have to keep quiet around my husband."

"I'm really concerned about health care now," Mrs. Collier said. "At least the Democrats wanted to do something about it. Hillary tried. And she got such a bad rap. People were against her because she was a strong, intelligent woman who was a true partner with her husband."

Mrs. Collier, describing herself as deeply religious, also said she was offended by Republican talk that seems to assert support from God. "I mean, is Pat Buchanan more Christian than the rest of us?" she asked.

Photos: Union laborer, 28: "The Republicans just try to divide working people," Terry Martin said. "They want to stick their nose in personal issues."; Store clerk, 50: Sandy Verduce said she would vote for Bob Dole in the Michigan primary, calling him "the least offensive Republican."; Retired auto worker, 72: "I'm not crazy about Dole, but I'll vote for any Republican ahead of Clinton," said John Simko, formerly a Democrat.; Auto worker, 30: "If you're a working man and you don't vote for Clinton, you're just not thinking things through," said Richard Pasik. (Photographs by Peter Yates for The New York Times)