View Full Version : Those mismatched Reds

03-14-2006, 10:35 AM
The Reds pitching, defense and GABP are mismatched. I was reading the Graphical Pitcher last night and was thinking of this in terms of GABP park effects. GABP plays as a slightly offensive park(~5% or less). It is a fly ball heaven and a groundball hell. It boots HRs by ~15% and lowers the % of GBs that turn into hits by ~10%.

Then you add in that the Reds had basically the worst OF defense in 2005 and likely to be similar in 2006.

This information screams for groundball pitchers and improving the infield defense. The Reds are loaded with GB pitchers in their pen(Weather, Wagner, Belisle, White, Hammond) but don't have a single one in their proposed rotation.

Harang - neutral
Claussen - slight FB
Williams - slight FB
Milton - extreme FB
Wilson - neutral

By comparison the Cards starting staff of 2005 had all moderate to extreme GB pitchers.

The Reds are so dysfunctional
1) They play in a flyball paradise yet have a flyball starting staff
2) They have flyball pitchers yet have arguably the worst OF defense in baseball

Their goal should be to find GB starting pitchers(they have at least two decent candidates in Gosling and Belisle) and infielders with more range and ability to turn DPs. EE fits the bill in that while he will make more error than Randa he is going to get to a lot more balls, same can likely be said of Dunn at first. They have to hope Lopez gets better. This is also why the thought of Womack os so troubling, he is a serious downgrade from either Aurilia or Freel from a defensive perspective. He throwing is so weak he can't turn DPs or make plays behind second in the field. We know there is no offensive reason to play him but neither is there a defensive one. BTW, those GB hit rate is going to have a serious negative impact on Womack at GABP(if his offense output wasn't already going to be bad enough).

My hope would be that Wilson and Milton are replaced by guys that at least have potential to succeed at GABP with higher GB rates.

The acquisitions that DanO made never seem to account for the rather extreme effects of GABP, no other BP in the majors has as big of a negative impact on turning GB into hits than GABP.

03-14-2006, 12:09 PM
Just further illustration that previous regime(s) didn't have a clue. Pitch to contact will fix all woes.