The robots are coming, and they are hungry for jobs. Should humans be worried?

Innovation has been destroying jobs for two centuries. So far, our economy has harnessed innovation to create far more jobs than it destroyed, while producing truly dramatic gains in living standards.

Yet a growing chorus of economists is wondering if this time might be different. Some worry that we are on the verge of creating a competing intelligent species that could impoverish most of us.

Of course, the graveyard of ideas is filled with prophets of doom.

I remain in the optimistic camp. Still, my reporting makes it clear that wrenching change is coming — and much sooner than most people realize.

Luckily, San Diego County is home to a thriving cluster of robotics companies that are rapidly shifting from dependence on military contracts to a variety of other industries.

Fantastic local job creation could be on the horizon. So might painful job losses.

Granted, robot industry Paul Reveres have been riding for a long time.

I programmed my first computer-controlled machine in 1979 as a 16-year-old factory worker. Companies lost billions on premature technology before profit-making industrial robots became common.

Yet successful robots have emerged from the factories.

The public takes for granted that the U.S. military can send unmanned aircraft to kill enemies — without risking a single American life. And, in real-world road tests, Google’s driverless cars have racked up thousands of accident-free miles.

How long before a robot cleans my gutters? Breakthroughs typically percolate for years, but then boil over suddenly when business owners learn to exploit them.

In 1908, when Henry Ford sold his first Model T, his tiny company built hobby cars for rich people. A dozen years later, Ford was producing 2 million cars a year.

Innovation and competition drove prices mercilessly from $825 in 1909 to $260 by 1925 — just $3,500 in 2013 dollars.

Today the robot industry is poised to explode into direct contact with consumers; in hospitals, hotels and even grocery stores.

Falling prices for components and leaps in computing power are allowing designers to solve problems that have throttled the industry for years.

SeaBotix in Point Loma makes robots that can find and rescue a person underwater. San Diego’s CareFusion sells systems that fill prescriptions around the clock without making a medication error.

So far, so good, particularly if you are drowning or hoping a hospital dosage error doesn’t kill you. But if you are a lifeguard or starting pharmacy school, it might be time to develop some backup career options.

Economists have weighed the consequences of innovation since the profession’s founding.

As Bruce Bartlett pointed out in a recent blog, Adam Smith in 1776 pondered the fate of pin makers, who required a full day to manufacture one pin when working alone. But if 10 pin makers each performed a specific piece of the task — a business process innovation — they could produce 48,000 pins a day.

Smith observed that the owner could simply lay off all the pin makers after one day, reaping a windfall as he gradually sold pins. But more often, a smart owner would keep churning them out and cut prices, prompting consumers to use more pins.


