On the attack

Positive thinking can pay off for Brazil and give the South Americans a second success in Europe

I'm expecting a great World Cup. Good football, a lot of emotion and a tournament that will be very difficult for everybody. But not quite so difficult for Brazil.

The defending champions are, for me, the super favourites. Paolo Rossi says that a European team will win this time because it is in Europe. When the World Cup is in the Americas, a South American team wins it. When it is in Europe a European team almost always wins. I disagree with Rossi.

This time everything points to Brazil, the only team to break the sequence when they won in Sweden in 1958. The key is their attacking players: that is their strength and their best performers - Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Kaka, Adriano - are all in very good form. As for Ronaldo being overweight, I saw a photo of him last week looking in good shape and slim.

When we talk of South American winners we really mean just Brazil and Argentina - they are the only contenders with a constant stream of top-quality talent. At every World Cup they have players of the highest class and this time Brazil have quality in every part of the team.

These days, when everyone can watch games from around the world on television, football can seem uniform. There are still differences between the continents, though, mostly concerning the philosophy of football, and there is a constant debate about the contrasting styles in South America and Europe.

I have worked with many South Americans, among them Enzo Francescoli and Daniel Fonseca from Uruguay, then Alemao from Brazil, and Argentines such as Claudio Lopez and the great Gabriel Batistuta, with whom I worked for four years at Fiorentina.

The Brazilians always look to attack, while Argentina are more about tactical organisation. They play with an Italian-like cunning and with a talent and imagination that is very much their own. Paraguay, in England's group, are also like that, with technical qualities and a tactical wisdom, but unlike Brazil and Argentina they have only one or two fine players.

That Argentine shrewdness is not out of the ordinary for them, it is their way of playing, their way of life in football. The key man for Argentina is Juan Roman Riquelme. At Barcelona he couldn't get a game, but at Villarreal he has grown into a player of the highest class, with the manager making the game revolve around him.

Jose Pekerman, the Argentina coach, does the same. When you consider their other talent - Lionel Messi can come on in the last 20 minutes and dribble past players and he is so quick to shoot; Hernan Crespo and Carlos Tevez are very strong in the forward line - you have to say Argentina could win.

Looking at the other sides you don't find many now who play without a good tactical shape. The African teams have made giant strides in that respect: there are so many African players in Europe now who bring experience and maturity to their national sides. Their players are exciting, strong and brave, and Ivory Coast, in particular, have a good squad.

But Ghana do not really have any strikers, for instance, and it is still premature to talk of an African team winning the World Cup despite the progress they have made. African nations, bit by bit, are getting there. With their best players around Europe and foreign coaches working with the squads, one day one of their teams will get to a semi-final for the first time and then we will see.

In Europe, one thing you will always hear before a World Cup is people talking about Spain's failure to play to their full potential. But I know Luis Aragones, their national coach, and this could be their year. Aragones is a pragmatist and he is shaping the team after himself. With Cesc Fabregas in midfield and with the luck of the draw - they are in an easy group - they can do better this time.

And England? What they have that some others lack is their group strength, a really strong team spirit. They have it in their blood and they are among the teams who can test Brazil.

I also see Australia being one of the big surprises. They won't win it, but they are a dark horse. They have lots of players who are in Europe, they are well organised and they have Guus Hiddink in charge, who did so well with South Korea four years ago. But that was a World Cup that was dramatic for everyone.

Australia could be a real surprise. They could make the quarter-finals. Two years ago Greece won Euro 2004, but we won't see another team like that winning in Germany. There will be surprises - there always are. I see Argentina, Italy, England and Germany as the main contenders - but all behind Brazil.

Former Chelsea manager Claudio Ranieri will write for The Observer during the World Cup.

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