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Do celebrity memoirs pay?
From Chris Woods

News that Alastair Campbell has sold his memoirs will make all sorts of feathers flutter. Former colleagues will be bracing themselves for the tongue-whipping for which he was famous, newspaper editors will be vying for what could be the political scoop of the decade, and his publishers, Random House, will be hoping they haven't signed themselves up to the dud of the year.

The recent track record for political memoirs is not exactly cheering. The Blunkett Years, bought by Bloomsbury for £400,000, less than half of what Campbell is rumoured to have got, sold fewer than 5,000 copies. To make a profit on an outlay of £400,000, and excluding serial rights, a publisher would have to sell 100,000 hardback copies, with twice that number in paperback. You'd have to go back to Margaret Thatcher to find those sort of numbers, though there have been rogue successes - powered by mischief, like Alan Clark's, or by public affection, as in the case of Tony Benn.

So can Campbell buck the trend? "In general these deals are down to the amount publishers are paid for newspaper serial rights," said Joel Rickett, of the Bookseller magazine. "For the value of the serial to be high, they have to have killer revelations or say something new about relatively recent events".

In scheduling publication to coincide with Tony Blair's departure, Random House is guaranteeing topicality, which will be reflected in the amount newspapers pay for the juicy bits. But that money will go to Campbell, because he has held on to serialisation rights. If the extracts are dull, or if the papers use all the good bits, a splash in newspapers can backfire on book sales. So why do publishers take such risks? They will point to past successes and hope for the best. "I think it could be a bestseller," says Michael Fishwick, publishing director at Bloomsbury. "He can write, he knows what a good story is and what he can and can't say. I think he'll explore the boundaries very craftily."
Claire Armitstead

Can Bernard Matthews save his brand?
From Andrew Mayall

Four weeks ago, it didn't look good, did it? About 150,000 turkeys bumped off, sales down by 40%, men in facemasks looking gloomy, a diplomatic incident with Hungary looming and endless "bootiful" puns in the headlines.

But that was four weeks ago. Bernard Matthews has appeared in his own ads once more, pledging that his turkey is safe. What will the turkey-eating public make of all this? Does he protest too much, perhaps?

No. Enough time has elapsed for the company to have checked things are safe again and no one does a Bernard Matthews spokesman as credibly as the man himself, so most people will give the company the benefit of the doubt. Sales will improve and, provided there is no recurrence of the problem, there should be no more than the faintest of stains left on the 40-year reputation of the name.

Good brands that have won the confidence of consumers over decades don't tarnish easily. Only a year ago, Cadbury was all over the media with a nasty salmonella scare thanks to a leaking pipe in a factory, and yet no one seems to care today and the shops are groaning with Cadbury's Creme Eggs in the run-up to Easter. Did Michael Jackson appearing in Pepsi's ads kill the brand? No. People forget. Move on.

But not always. They didn't forget jeweller Gerald Ratner. They crucified him for a joke at a private party that so misfired it killed his business overnight. Why? It's all about trust. We believe Bernard Matthews when he tells us he's bothered about hygiene standards. The trouble is, when Ratner told us his products were "crap", we believed that too.
Simon Marquis

Will BA/Virgin's transatlantic dominance last?
From BB Jones

Coleen McLoughlin and the growing hordes of transatlantic shoppers would be forgiven for expecting cheaper trips to Macy's following the emergence of a draft Open Skies aviation pact last week.

The tentative agreement between the European Union and US will open up the transatlantic route to all European and American carriers. It means an end to restrictions on the Heathrow to New York JFK route which limit passengers to a choice of four airlines - including British Airways and Virgin Atlantic.

However, analysts warn that prices might not tumble overnight if the agreement is implemented, as expected, by the autumn. If you are flying with BA, a return flight to New York for a long weekend costs about £330 at present, or about £240 with Virgin Atlantic. According to a BA spokesman, the Heathrow to New York market is already very competitive and the consumer benefits from Open Skies are "vastly overstated". It is widely held that prices for any route come down when it has three competing airlines operating on it, so extra carriers on heavily-operated routes such as Heathrow and Gatwick to New York are unlikely to make a huge difference in ticket prices. Then there is the access issue: Heathrow airport is 98.5% full, so any carrier wanting to launch a transatlantic service from Europe's busiest international airport will struggle to find a useable take-off slot. Stansted and Gatwick, the alternative gateways to the US, are also busy airports.

The most obvious instigator of a transatlantic price war is BMI, which owns Heathrow slots and has eyed the transatlantic market for some time. It faces hurdles such as a lack of long-haul planes, but it is a near certainty to launch a New York service if an Open Skies deal goes ahead. And that remains a sizeable if: the UK government is objecting to the deal and wants a few tweaks before it signs on the dotted line. Transatlantic shopping might remain a relative luxury for a while yet.
Dan Milmo

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