02838cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001800070245013500088260006600223490004200289500001400331520152100345530006101866538007201927538003601999690008702035690010102122690012402223700001902347710004202366830007702408856003802485856003702523w18090NBER20141225100717.0141225s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aLi, Chunding.10aChina and the TPPh[electronic resource]:bA Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved /cChunding Li, John Whalley. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18090 aMay 2012.3 aThe Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a new negotiation on cross border liberalization of goods and service flows going beyond WTO disciplines and focused on issues such as regulation and border controls. Though the US, Australia and other pacific countries are included, China is notable for its exclusion from the process thus far. This paper uses numerical simulation methods to assess the potential effects of a TPP agreement on China and the other participating countries. We use a numerical five-country global general equilibrium model with trade costs and monetary structure incorporating inside money to allow for impacts on trade imbalances. Trade costs are calculated using a method based on gravity equations. Simulation results reveal that China will be hurt by TPP initiatives, but the negative effects are relatively small given the geographical and commodity composition of China's trade. Other non-TPP countries will be hurt but member countries will all gain. Japan's joining TPP would be beneficial to both herself and all other TPP countries, but negative effects on China and other non-TPP countries will increase further. If China takes part in TPP, it will increase China's and other TPP countries' gain, but non-TPP countries will be hurt more. As a regional free trade arrangement, TPP effects are different from global free trade effects which will benefit all countries (not just member countries) in the world, and the positive effects of global free trade are stronger than TPP effects. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF53 - International Agreements and Observance • International Organizations2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aWhalley, John.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18090.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1809041uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w18090