ANCHORAGE, Alaska—The winner of Alaska's Senate race might not be known for weeks, as election officials wrestle with complications created by incumbent Lisa Murkowski's write-in effort as well as thousands of absentee ballots, but with more than half of the state's precincts counted Tuesday night, Ms. Murkowski appeared to have close to a five-point lead.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski at the polls. Getty Images

Alaska voters chose among Ms. Murkowski, tea-party favorite and Republican nominee Joe Miller, and Democrat Scott McAdams, a little-known former mayor. In addition to those votes and others cast early, there are at least 20,000 absentee ballots that won't be counted Tuesday night.

To vote for Ms. Murkowski, Alaskans had to darken a bubble on the ballot and write her name on a line -- a considerable hurdle for the candidate. The last time a senator won a write-in bid was when Strom Thurmond won his seat in 1954.

But in early counting, it appeared that Ms. Murkowski had a lead. Late Tuesday night, with more than half of precincts counted, write-ins were ahead with 39.2% of the vote, followed by Mr. Miller with 35.5%. Mr. McAdams was in third place with 24.3% of the vote. Though the names on write-in ballots won't be tallied for weeks, Ms. Murkowski's name is expected to be on the vast majority of them. For the sake of comparison, fewer than 1% of ballots were cast for write-in candidates in the last two Senate races in Alaska.

"You can't say that it's over, but it sure looks like it's headed in that direction," said longtime Alaska pollster Dave Dittman. "She's probably pretty pleased." Mr. Dittman pointed out that ballots from Alaska's rural regions are the latest to be counted. Ms. Murkowski has strong support among rural Alaskans, which means her lead could grow as the night goes on.

On Tuesday night, election officials were tallying the number of votes for Mr. Miller and Mr. McAdams, and the number of voters who indicated a write-in choice. If the number of votes with the write-in bubble filled far exceeds those for another candidate, Ms. Murkowski could become the apparent winner Tuesday night. Still, the result won't be known for certain until election officials wait for laggard absentee ballots to arrive and be counted, which will take another two weeks. Then they will move beyond counting bubbles to actually tallying the names written in next to them.

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Any name-counting wouldn't start until Nov. 18, and the election wouldn't be certified until around Nov. 29. Only at that point could a candidate contest the results in court, said Gail Fenumiai, director of the state Division of Elections.

"I have no idea" when the results will be known, Ms. Fenumiai said. "Tonight might be a good indication" of whether write-in votes could represent a serious challenge to a candidate on the ballot, she added, but "the public just needs to know that there are going to be tens of thousands of ballots waiting to be counted after [Tuesday]."

The next question: Will voters spell Ms. Murkowski's name correctly, or close enough to be counted?

Doug Clinger, a 48-year-old fisherman who voted for Ms. Murkowski, said the process was straightforward, but when asked by a reporter how to spell Ms. Murkowski's name, he said, "M-U-R-K-O-K-S-K-I."

Luckily for Mr. Clinger, the Division of Elections has said minor misspellings of Ms. Murkowski's last name will probably still be counted in her favor. Meanwhile, Michael McCarter, a 45-year-old environmental consultant, wore a wristband with Ms. Murkowski's name—provided by her campaign—to the Anchorage church where he voted, "to make sure I could spell it." He said he chose Ms. Murkowski because she seems "trustworthy." Deanne O'Brien, a teacher's assistant, kept a Post-It note with the candidate's name in her pocket.

The race has been one of the most closely watched of the battles nationwide between incumbents and tea-party rivals ever since Mr. Miller's surprise victory over Ms. Murkowski in the GOP primary in August.

A win by Mr. Miller, who was supported by tea-party contributors and former Gov. Sarah Palin, would bolster the tea-party movement's credibility and Ms. Palin's standing as a political kingmaker. In recent polls, Mr. Miller and Ms. Murkowski were neck-and-neck, with Mr. McAdams in a distant third place, but Alaska polls have proven unreliable in past elections, and the write-in factor further complicates matters.

Mr. Miller's tea-party credentials appealed to Alaskans like Joan Morgan, a 64-year-old retiree, who said she voted for Mr. Miller because she felt loyal toward him after he won the Republican primary and was disappointed that Ms. Murkowski re-entered the race.

Write to Vauhini Vara at