

Saudi's Crown Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, right, welcomes Lebanese President Michel Sleiman upon an arrival for an official visit earlier this month in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. / AFP/Getty Images

In Iran, the mood was laudatory; in the West, leaders hailed the "big first step." But in the wake of an interim deal on Iran's nuclear program early Sunday, there was silence from much of the Arab world.

That's because while Iranian allies Syria and Iraq were delighted, others in the Arab world's Sunni-led states were worried, analysts say.

"I am afraid Iran will give up something to get something else from the big powers in terms of regional politics - and I'm worrying about giving Iran more space or a freer hand in the region," Abdullah al-Askar, chairman of Saudi Arabia's appointed Shoura Council, a quasi-parliament that advises the government on policy, told the Daily Star in Lebanon.


There were no official statements from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Egypt or Jordan - the Arab countries that are ruled by the Sunni Muslim sect and have long been wary of Iran, a Shiite majority country.

This interim deal, those countries fear, will give Iran renewed influence in the region, just as Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting what some believe is a proxy war over Syria, with Saudi Arabia arming the rebels and the Iranians providing aid to the regime of Bashar Assad.

"Iran is not a threat only to Israel; it is a threat to the whole world and especially to Middle East," said Avraham Diskin, political scientist at Hebrew University. "Iran is a Shiite country and very much interested in dominating the area while most of the region is dominated by Sunni regimes that are relatively open to the West," although not progressive toward human rights.

"These regimes feel threatened and, like Israel, have a very strong interest in blocking Iran's potential nuclear military capabilities."

For this reason, Diskin said, the deal could jump-start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

"Iran's Arab neighbors in the Gulf, and also possibly Egypt, may not sit and wait" to see whether Iran abides by the agreement. Rather, they may begin to explore how to procure a nuclear arsenal of their own.

The Gulf states have accused Iran of interfering in Bahrain, Lebanon and other countries in the region.

"The people of the region know Iranian policies and Iranian ambitions," al-Askar added. "And they know that Iran will interfere in the politics of many countries in the region."

Saudi Arabia has been vocal in its displeasure over the change in Washington's policy toward Iran as well as its reluctance to engage in Syria. Gulf Arab leaders met Saturday night to discuss "issues of interest to the three nations," Arab news media reports said.

Saudi commentators said it would be diplomatically impossible for the Saudi government to publicly condemn an agreement designed to contain Iranian nuclear ambitions. Some commentators in the Middle East were optimistic about the deal.

"Anything that lessens tensions in the region is welcome," Khaled Almaeena, editor in chief of the Saudi Gazette, told The Guardian newspaper. "We were all on tenterhooks. We are concerned about the environment and our security."

Meanwhile, Iraq - a Shiite-majority nation that fought a long war with Iran in the 1980s - praised the interim agreement.

"The deal between Iran and the six international powers is seen as a major step for the region's security and stability," Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Sunday. "Iraq supports this step and we are ready to offer help to ensure its completion."

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' spokesman Nabil Abu Rdaineh said it sent an important message to Israel, "to realize that peace is the only choice in the Middle East." He also said Palestinians want "a Middle East that is free of nuclear weapons". Israel refuses to say whether it has a nuclear arsenal.

An official government statement from Syria praised the deal. Syrian dictator Bashar Assad is being helped with Iranian arms and fighters to put down a rebellion against Sunnis Muslims, who make up the majority in Syria.

"Syria believes the agreement is a sign that political solutions to crisis in the region are the best way forward for securing peace and stability in the region, not foreign intervention or use of force," the state news agency SANA reported.

Some analysts expressed a hope that the deal represents a real chance for rapprochement after three decades of estrangement with the West.

"Potentially, this is a great opportunity for both sides - Iran and the U.S. - to reduce the rhetoric and try to work together by removing some sanctions as long as Iran fulfills its side of the bargain," said Yossi Mekelberg, an analyst at the London-based think-tank Chatham House and program director for international relations at Regent's University in London.

But he was skeptical of those who believe the deal shows Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is becoming a "beacon of love for the U.S."

The editor of Al-Arabiya, Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed, anticipated the deal being made and wrote over the weekend that letting Iran remain a nuclear power will prompt other countries to do the same.

"From a theoretical, political and military perspective, Saudi Arabia will have to protect itself from the Iranian regime's nuclear program either with a nuclear weapon or via agreements that will maintain the regional balance of power and protect Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states," he said. "Logically, Saudi Arabia will have to do so, especially since there is a long history of aggression orchestrated by Tehran against Riyadh."

Marwan Bishara, senior political analyst at Al Jazeera, which is owned by the government of the Gulf state of Qatar, said the Saudis are most alarmed by the potential U.S.-Iran detente and the rise of an unrestrained Iran on the Middle East stage.

"Further Saudi-Iranian antagonism will lead to major sectarian escalation with incalculable price for the region," he said.

Contributing: Michele Chabin in Jerusalem

Copyright 2014

Read the original story: Arabs not allied with Iran quiet over nuclear deal


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