Malcolm Turnbull's leadership has come up against a tsunami of opposition on emissions trading.

Malcolm Turnbull's leadership has come up against a tsunami of opposition on emissions trading. Photo: Michael Mucci

Malcolm Turnbull was close to being dead meat last night. Mostly, he has brought his problems on himself - over recent months and during one of the most bizarre days in modern Liberal history.

On the face of it, the Opposition should have been able to easily consummate a deal with the Government yesterday.

Labor couldn't have given more concessions, as Kevin Rudd made his bid to get the emissions legislation ready for Copenhagen. The Liberals could hardly have dreamt they would win as much.

But the Liberal hardliners couldn't have dug in further. And Andrew Robb, the man who might have been the Opposition negotiator, couldn't have done worse by his leader.

Robb, who has been temporarily off the front bench while being treated for depression, threw a bomb at Turnbull and he didn't miss. It was breathtaking.

Robb argued that the $7 billion in concessions offered by the Government were inadequate. His behaviour, in apparently not warning his leader of what he planned to do, is odd, but it does make sense of the ambivalence about negotiating Robb often showed when he was spokesman.

With the speakers divided equally or nearly so, Turnbull faced an invidious choice. He took a dangerous gamble when he decided to declare the party room on his side, despite controversy about the balance of numbers and when senators were tied up in a division. This was seen as another example of Turnbull's high-handedness, or political inexperience.

It is in the Liberal Party's interests to vote for the ETS and get the climate change issue as much off the election agenda as possible. But the issue has now morphed into a direct and serious threat to Turnbull's leadership, with two backbenchers demanding a meeting for a spill.

Turnbull makes the decision on whether to hold the meeting but he cannot, and should not, resist. Although Kevin Andrews is the only declared challenger the party must now seriously deal with the future of its leadership.

What's more, credible contenders must be persuaded to come forward. The best alternative is shadow treasurer Joe Hockey.

He has ministerial experience. He would not be what the right of the party, which include the climate sceptics, would want. But they, having trashed Turnbull, should accept him for the good of the party. The best thing Turnbull could do would be to recognise that he has tried and failed in the Opposition leader's job, stand aside and back Hockey.