A survey of al-Qaeda

Winning or losing?

Al-Qaeda has made terrorism truly global, to deadly effect. But it may yet prove to be its own worst enemy, says Anton La Guardia (interviewed here)

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Readers' comments





hypnotoad3000 wrote:
July 17, 2008 19:49
eco09 wrote:
July 17, 2008 16:44
" One more correction, Al-qaeda was never born in Peshawar( Pakistan) instead it was created by Osama by the backing of Saudi Royal Family, the best friend country of USA. In otherwords, Alqaeda was born with the consensus of US and is still operating under the instructions of CIA."

Wow, ummm....I mean wow...what a dipsh#@

You can grade my words whatever you like to and obviously you would show yourself in your words. I stand by my comment and that is based on the facts:
Osama worked for CIA during Afghan-USSR war and the US stinger missiles were passed on to Osama’s arab fighters through Pakistan and by that time Osama was OK for US. In the post war times, US sought to destroy all those missiles and other weapons that were in the hands of Al-Qaeda and other Afghan fighters. For that US worked with Benazir Bhutto to craft Taliban force against the Afghanistan’s commanders to let these fighters fight against each other. It’s all the brutal game plan designed by CIA and its agent Osama to kill as many Muslims as possible. Osama is killing Muslims more than anyone else (1:9). Now US is marching towards Pakistan’s tribal areas declaring it a hot pursuit against Taliban, but in fact trying to make Pakistan another Iraq. You can see US dollars in the hands of poor tribal fighters of Pakistan and unfortunately the source of these dollars is again CIA. I don’t think any sensible Muslim support this beast Osama but it is all CIA making him hero and presenting him as a person who is fighting for Muslim cause. Al-Qaeda would never die, until and unless CIA wants it to die.


After 9/11, al-Qaeda had no need to attack continental USA again. That attack achieved its aim by sucking USA into unwinnable and prolonged insurgencies. The US is entrenched in the Middle East for the forseeable future. Hence, al-Qaeda can engage its enemy at its leisure.There are only two conditions that will change that situation: 1. al-Qaeda builds a crude nuclear weapon and deploys it successfully - highly unlikely, though; or 2. US forces are withdrawn from the Middle East, back to lock-down USA; again, that's highly unlikely.


I think your representation map of the Muslim "homeland" is a little over-generous. To see the old Christian kingdom of Ethiopia and the avowedly Buddhist southern Burma made part of this might come as quite a surprise to the inhabitants of both areas.


I simply do not believe in the existence of a group called al-Qaeda. Yes there is most certainly a Taliban and a Hamas and a Hezbollah but an al-Qaeda no, no it's just smells too much like the invention of secondrater from Madison Avenue, Hollywood or the oval office. To an extent the Brits had it easy when it came to defining an enemy in N. Ireland and yet even there eventually they had a whole multitude of different mutually animus splinter groups to contend with. So no I simply cannot believe in a Bin Laden working as the general manager or chairman of a global terroristic business empire called al-Qaeda. And the very fact that even so reverent a publication as TheEconomist chooses to brazenly banter this risible premise around is proof enough of the dubbing down of our news outlets and of the growing gullibility of it’s supposedly highly educated readers.


Terrorism has gone out of control of any one organization. Despite the fact these organizations knowing that they cannot possibly win against a state, they are sadistically happy to bleed those states at least. The persistent fear makes a psyche of eternal gloom and despair. USA has been living under the threat of an attack since 9/11. This imaginary attacked helped George Bush win his elections when effectively used the old age saying of "fear works". The reduction in terrorism can come only from within when these outfits realize the futility of fighting a bloody war like the IRA did, the Maoist to an extent did. Unless that happens it’s not really possible to think of a terrorism free world. However for that to happen Republicans must be thrown out as when they come to power their "oil politics" make the world a dangerous place to live.


hypnotoad3000-- The reigns are always in the hands of the elite and wealthy, be it Western Liberal democracy or Islamist terrorism. My point was, poverty and desperation are very fertile grounds for poisonous agenda to succeed. On the other hand, people who are economically free and enjoy general prosperity cannot be bothered following Mullahs and their violent war-games.This is the reason why all these terrorist masterminds move to bleak places like Afghanistan, post Saddam and chaotic Iraq, Chechnya, rugged tribal regions of Pakistan or Central Asia. As far as I know, Bin Laden or Zawahiri would never consider having an active base in Qatar, UAE, Bahrain or Kuwait.


Idle hands breed desperate minds. For the most part the ME only has oil. Take out oil and then what? Millions more with nothing to do but get into trouble. I think we all know many acquaintances/friends that are so deeply frustrated with their own lives they put that angst into hating some individual, or some group for all their problems. The thing is these types in the US by and large are still able to pay their bills and put food on the table and so their threats never become real. When I think back to 9/11, I remember standing in the kitchen watching the buildings falling on t.v and thinking that whoever planned these attacks didn't care a bit about who was in those buildings which of course did include innocent Muslims as well. I have never bought the argument that only the west was the target. Does anybody recall the wedding party in Jordan that was bombed for reasons we will never know. I think that was the turning point for the "bad guys". Instead of being seen as global freedom fighters as many in the liberal media often liked to refer to them as, they became what many sensible human beings already knew them to be and that was killers and thugs.Al-Qaeda is like any young organization with a product to sell which in this case was global terrorism. Somebody is chosen to lead and many become the followers. The problem is some of those followers want to be doing the leading and thus begins the fracturing of any organization. I remember when Al-Qaeda decided it would be fun to behead those they captured. I remember thinking how long will they be able to find recruits that are sick enough to do the job. As it turns out, not long. The leadership that chose that path made a grave mistake and eventually met his maker. There will always be the nutjobs like OBL, but the only answer to minimize their influence is to take away the followers. The followers must have something better to do such as becoming a plumber, a cook, a teacher, etc. If asked to choose between being paid to be a terrorist and becoming a firefighter, I will bet most will pick the latter. It is the governments of many of these countries with high unemployment that have grossly let their people down.


Shanky John,Please give the anti-colonialist pablam a rest and stop drinking the Kool-Aid. It is a childish ideology developed by our enemies attempting to weaken Western Civilization's resolve, so they can supplant the very position we now occupy; and the insipid self-loathing utopian, who views Western Civilization and the efforts of all those stupid "dead white men" consumed by the will to power as the source of all evil in the world, happily spreads this cancer through his own society, squandering a legacy built up over centuries and leaving future generations destitute. Western Civilization is one of the greatest accomplishments of humanity, despite some regrettable incidents. The fact is that NONE of your arguments would even make any sense without the standards Western Civilization has provided. These standards are a great legacy to humanity and are what must be preserved in this continuing struggle.

Shanky John

Of course, the analysis is very West-centered. The West will never accept responsibility for the damages (of every conceivable kind) it has caused around the world in the last 500 years. To name a few:1. Wiping out the native Americans from their own land2. Grabbing the Australian land mass from the aboriginal people3. Looting with impunity across Asia and Africa thus impoverishing several nations4. Slave Trade causing displacement of several million people5. Causing the extinction of several species of animals6. Irreparable atmospheric pollution7. 2 World wars (in order to kill one another when they got sick of spreading terror around the world)Of course now they want to judge everyone else including the Islamic terrorists whom they helped develop in the first place.


Emberglow wrote:
July 17, 2008 20:41
"The only thing I have to add is that please look at the map of global Muslim populace. The hotbeds of Islamist extremism are the poorest countries as Economist points out ''the ungoverned, undergoverned and ungovernable areas of the Muslim world''. Poverty breeds almost all the evils known to human race, terrorism is one of them."

Point taken except that the bin Laden family was one of the wealthiest families in the world. Zawahiri and many of his like were churned up in the professional colleges like law, engineering and medical school by the Egyptian Brotherhood. So was some of the Hamas creators that are now dead. The pawns, the muscle guys usually come from poverty but the real terrorists, the masterminds typically come from wealth and power and use Islamic extremism to push the susceptable poor into blowing themselves up.

Notice both bin Laden and Zawahiri are still alive for all their talk these many years about dying for Allah.



Economist beats almost any other international news publication with its keen insight expressed concisely. Very impressive indeed. The only thing I have to add is that please look at the map of global Muslim populace. The hotbeds of Islamist extremism are the poorest countries as Economist points out ''the ungoverned, undergoverned and ungovernable areas of the Muslim world''. Poverty breeds almost all the evils known to human race, terrorism is one of them. Let's see the bright spots of Muslim world: Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Malaysia. Surely, they have not reached Western standards of civil liberties yet. But the peace, prosperity and good governance there is better than many Non Muslim and even Western countries.


Al Qaeda its own worst enemy? It was doing just fine around the world until it picked a fight with the U.S. military. And it had been committing atrocities against Muslims and non-Muslims alike. Once it started getting smashed, then its stock began to tumble. Turns out America was AQ's worst enemy.


eco09 wrote:
July 17, 2008 16:44


Read Steve Coll - Ghost Wars
Read Lawrence Wright - The Looming Towers

Saudi Arabia did sponser UBL back in the 80's during the Afghan jihad. UBL was the money man between SA and Pakistan. The US was supporting the native Afghan mujihadeen but not the Arab ones like bin Laden. UBL was a competitor of the CIA for Afghan mujihadeen commanders loyalty, not a client. During the Gulf War, UBL turned against the SA government and they revoked his citizenship and gave him the boot. Al Qaeda (proper) was "born" in Pakistan/Afghanistan in the early 90's after the Gulf War. Look at who signed his fatwas. It wasnt SA clerics which are state controlled. It was Pakistani cleric Maulana Fazlur Rahman and his sub politico/terror group commanders. The CIA never worked with him. SA did but cut him loose during the Gulf War. And he got his religious authority to attack the US from the Pakistan cleric who is also known as the Godfather of the Taliban. On a side note, Maulana Fazlur Rahman was also a friend of Saddam and my book contains transcripts of his negotiations with the Saddam regime to get Saddam's support of the Taliban in 1999.



Very nicely done with two quibbles:

1) The US did not trip into al Qaeda in Iraq, we went there knowing they would come. Remember "fight them over there so we would not have to fight them here"? We were all talking about al Qaeda back then and that is exactly what happened.

2) Your discussion of semi-autonomous terror groups still accepting some state sponsership is dead on. This idea that al Qaeda would not work with any government is ludicrous. But you left Iraq (under Saddam) out of your brief. My own research of captured Iraqi and al Qaeda documents shows that the Saddam regime was working with the Taliban and al Qaeda. You can read the documents for yourself in my book Both In One Trench: Saddam's Secret Terror Documents



Osama bin-Laden does not need any reason other than hate for America, and her Allies to make attacks take place wherever he feels it is necessary to discredit America. His main purpose has always been to destroy and kill as many infidels(Americans) as possible and reward the El-Qaeda terrorist for each killing. Osama bin-Laden is hiding like a rat in cave only periodically appearing to let his followers know that he is still in command.
Every effort to remove Osama bin-Laden from Power should be taken. He is a menace to the free world inaddition to the Islamic Religious and Middle East. He is a coward and fears capture by those who search for him, continually hiding in places that most humans would not live. His El-Qaeda forces undermine the free people of the world, by threats and actual bombings, and terrorist acts that make countries fear his reprisals. This evil person needs to be captured and brought to justice...His existence continues to undermind the free world, and he has made it known that the strikes by El-Qaeda Terrorist will continue to wherever he feels it is necessary to instill fear and detruction.
It is a known fact the Osama bin-Laden, Saudia Arabia and Islam Terrorist were the responsible for the planning and destruction of the twin towers. Hyjacking of Airlines that hit the Pentgon and killed the passengers of flight 913. Just the fact he is alive is a slap in the face of the American Forces, as his presence continues to taunts us as he pops up from time to time. His whereabouts must be known by someone who would like to have this huge reward. Hopefully as the strength of the El-Qaeda weakens to some degree that just maybe he may get turned by someone.


The ideology of al Qaeda is dark and unfathomable for the Western mind ... but the effect of terrorism is overt and measurable. Your graphs of terrorism show the dramatic upswing after regime change in Iraq and the surprisingly early peaking of the violence with shift toward muslim victims in 2004. The Western targeting has been in decline.

Like any other clandestine guerilla type war, combatants are dependent on support from native populations .... and in Iraq and some empathetic muslim communities, the tide has truly tilted toward joining Western global capitalism and renouncing faux jihadism.

The strangeness of setting aside sovereign considerations and law makes strategy difficult, and the chameleon changes of a networked enterprise demand many adjustments .... but overall, the US is winning, despite the widespread derision.


eco09,I'm not going to insult your intelligence by believing that you actually hold the asinine belief that Al Qaeda is operating udnder the instructions of the CIA.

B D Hoffman

The United States of America missed it'schance of winning the war against radicalIslam in it's witless stupid cowardly response to 911. Although 15 of the 17 attacker's on Sept. 11th, 2001 were SaudiNationalist's, as well as Osama Ben Ladenhimself, we went after Afganastan. Them Mr. Bush and company did a switch and bait and shiffed to Iraq. Had the UnitedStates attacked the right enemy (Saudi Arabia), occupied it and captured their oil fields and declared it under our permanant rule, the quagmire that the U.S.A. is now in would not exist. And further more, we could still make a ligimate case for taking over Saudi Arabia because of the economic war theyare waging against America by not increasing oil production five fold which they most certainly could do. I amremembering the reason the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941, drawing us into WWII. It was because we cut offtheir oil supply! BDHwe


Just a quick correction in the article that the matches that the article is referring to, shows a reward of five hundered thousands dollars and not the five millions( because I can read that). One more correction, Al-qaeda was never born in Peshawar( Pakistan) instead it was created by Osama by the backing of Saudi Royal Family, the best friend country of USA. In otherwords, Alqaeda was born with the consensus of US and is still operating under the instructions of CIA.



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