




David Gothard






Inside Washington, they were urged to reduce the influence of pro-lifers in the party and distance themselves from conservative talk radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh. They were told to warm up to Mr. Obama, the new master of American politics, and they were told to fret about all those voting blocs that were drifting away from the GOP—Hispanics, young people, gays, urbanites, blacks, voters in Northeastern states and independents. To survive, in short, they needed to move the party to the center. Conservatism was dead.

In hindsight, it's fortunate that they ignored the Beltway wisdom. But it was a gamble—it wasn't clear at the time that a strategy of pure opposition would do anything other than marginalize Republicans.

Their first big step was to oppose the economic "stimulus" package. Many in the media insisted Republicans had a death wish when they unanimously rejected it in the House and by a near-unanimous vote in the Senate. The press was wrong. This was the smartest move Republicans have made all year, one with several positive repercussions.

Republicans deconstructed the bill, pointing to its excessive spending, its pork, its favors for Democratic special interests, its lack of actual economic stimulants. Their critique was full-throated and specific. Not only did Republicans begin to revive their reputation as fiscal hawks, they convinced a large chunk of the public that out-of-control spending was a threat to the nation's well-being.

The effect has been to crimp Mr. Obama's plans for further spending. New funds for bailouts are unlikely to be approved by Congress. ObamaCare's cost—a minimum $1 trillion—has become a big reason protesters are turning out against it at town-hall meetings.

On health care, it's nice that Republicans have offered several alternatives to Mr. Obama's government-heavy plan. But these alternatives have played no role in turning America against the president's ideas. Opposition to ObamaCare in all its parts (not only its cost) has been the chief factor in flipping public opinion.

And that opposition has validated the noisy protests at Democratic town-hall meetings. Absent Republican opposition in Washington, the protests could be dismissed as insignificant. Together, congressional Republicans and their grassroots allies have become an influential force.

There's an even more important consequence of Republican opposition. It's preventing dozens of moderate House Democrats in Republican-leaning districts from going for ObamaCare. They won't vote for it without Republican cover. Republicans are 40 votes short of a House majority, yet they're thwarting Mr. Obama's chief domestic priority. That's effective opposition.

In one sense, Democrats have only themselves to blame. They set the standard for opposition during Mr. Bush's second term. They furiously opposed everything with a Republican label on it. It worked so well that voters grew to prefer Democrats on practically every issue, including normally reliable Republican issues like taxes. A similar phenomenon is now benefiting Republicans.

Yet many Republicans wince when accused of being obstructionist and "the party of no." They shouldn't. The willingness of the GOP to oppose is a deterrent. If Mr. Obama were to allow CIA officials who interrogated terrorists to be prosecuted he now knows what he will face: a wall of unyielding Republican opposition led by Mr. Cheney. This is bound to affect his decision.

Republicans fret about alienating voters who turned against them in the past two elections. They shouldn't. Independents are the largest bloc of these voters. By opposing Mr. Obama, especially on spending and health care, Republicans have created a mass migration of independents away from the president. They are moving the center to the right.

On a public radio show last week, I was asked about a Pew poll that found that the favorable rating for Democrats was in sharp decline (now down to 49%) but that the rating for Republicans was unchanged all year (40%). The host suggested this means opposition to Mr. Obama is getting Republicans nowhere.

That's not the way politics works. Political recovery comes in two stages. The party out of power must first discredit the majority's ideas and agenda. Public approval comes later. It shows up on Election Day.
