Ex-communist Europe
Eastern approaches

Reviving the lost art of queueing

Economic hardship follows political repression in Belarus

ULADZIMIR NYAKLYAEV looked triumphant as he stepped out of the Frunzenskiy district court in Minsk earlier today. In most countries receiving a two-year suspended prison sentence would be no cause for celebration. But the man widely regarded as the opposition front-runner in Belarus's flawed presidential vote in December had expected worse (prosecutors had requested three years); he certainly got off lightly compared to Andrei Sannikov, another leading opposition figure. Last Saturday Mr Sannikov was sentenced to five years in a tough penal colony.

A third presidential candidate, Vitaly Rimasheusky, was given two years' probation today. Two more candidates were due to be sentenced, but saw their hearings postponed, apparently because the judge was ill.

All the defendants were accused of orchestrating "mass disturbances"—meaning the 20,000-strong opposition rally in Minsk on election night that ended with a brutal crackdown. Speaking outside the court today, Mr Nyaklyaev evoked the "shock" of that night, when he was badly beaten, but also described it as a "moral victory" over Alyaksandr Lukashenka's dictatorship.

Yet the size of the crowd today showed how successful Mr Lukashenka's regime has been in cowing the opposition. Barely 150 people were there to listen to Mr Nyaklyaev; many of them were journalists. Belarus has not seen anything that could be called an opposition rally since that freezing December night.

The ongoing trials, combined with threatening words from Mr Lukashenka following a mysterious bombing on the Minsk metro in mid-April, have stifled dissent, even as a severe economic crisis and a nosediving currency give Belarusians a lot more to complain about than a few months ago.

While Minsk retains its orderly, prosperous aura, the talk everywhere is of prices: the cost of imported goods—those that are still available—from sugar to shampoo, is doubling, tripling even, from week to week. Multiple exchange rates are in operation: on Friday evening the interbank rate stood at around 7,500 roubles to the dollar, while bureaux de change were still required to sell dollars for 4,500 roubles, meaning, of course, that they had barely any. Belarusians are closing their bank accounts, stocking up on non-perishables, and joining endless queues outside those bureaux.

At the central station in Minsk there is some hope that naive foreigners will trade in their hard currency for favourable rates on arrival. Locals waiting in line keep a notebook detailing their names and place in the queue, returning to check every now and then. Asked who is to blame for this situation, they giggle. One says sarcastically: "I'm no expert, but in my humble opinion, the Belarusian economy has not been managed entirely correctly." They do, however, express confidence that a bail-out from Russia Mr Lukashenka has promised to secure would stabilise things.

But yesterday those hopes receded: Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, told reporters in Minsk that Belarus could get $3 billion in loans from the Eurasian Economic Community, a Russia-led regional grouping, over three years, but only if it privatised $7.5-9 billion in state-owned assets. The Kremlin clearly sees Belarus's woes as an opportunity to get its hands on the country's key industries.

Yet Mr Lukashenka may refuse to give Moscow what it wants. Talks with Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, in Minsk last night ended, unexpectedly, with no statement to the press. "Nothing to brag about", was today's headline in Nasha Niva, an opposition newspaper.

Leonid Zlotnikov, an economist, fears Mr Lukashenka cares more about not ceding control of Belarus's oil refineries and gas pipelines to Russian firms than about maintaining Belarusians' living standards. The recent wave of repression has scuppered Minsk's chances of help from the West, but with the lid so firmly on dissent, Lukashenko may feel he can afford to play hardball with the Russians—and in the meantime let the economy slide.

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