Sudan coup, explained

Ali Dinar of the department of Africana Studies discusses last week’s military coup, and what comes next.

Person in streets of Sudan in a protest crowd flashes the peace sign.
On Oct. 25, 2021 pro-democracy protesters flash the victory sign as they take to the streets to condemn a takeover by military officials, in Khartoum, Sudan. (Image: AP Images/Ashraf Idris)

Last week’s military coup in Sudan is threatening to derail the nation’s nascent transition to democracy after a popular revolt in 2019 unseated long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir. Just weeks before the military was to shift power into civilian hands as part of a power sharing agreement, Sudan’s top military leader Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launched a coup and detained the prime minister and other government officials. The public has responded with large protests filling the streets of the capital Khartoum and elsewhere, and the international community has condemned the move.

Penn Today spoke with Ali Dinar, a senior lecturer in the Department of Africana Studies in the School of Arts & Sciences, whose research includes Sudanese popular culture, the politics of identity, and the history of colonial and post-colonial Africa, to get a sense of what happened and what comes next in Sudan.

What’s been happening in recent months and what led to the coup?

The situation in Sudan was not stable, even with the success of the 2019 revolution, because of the number of people who support the past regime who are represented in the army in conflict with those who are in support of democratic change. There’s been this tension from the beginning, even with the civilian government having a lot of successes, specifically with regard to the economic track: lifting of sanctions, getting financial contributions from multilateral organizations and from European countries and the United States to stabilize the economic front.

But there are some internal issues that have upset the military and its allies from the past regime, especially with the effort of the civilian government in cleaning up corruption and confiscating resources which were taken by the past government. The military started to make a lot of obstacles to hamper the success of the civilian regime, orchestrating situations that raise fear inside Sudan, like violence and attacks against people and blaming it on terrorist cells that need to be dealt with. The military has also recently backed one group in the eastern part of Sudan who declared opposition to the civilian government and blocked the main port of Sudan, so goods which are supposed to come to Sudan and exports also have been halted without any intervention from the military. They created an environment which is conducive to violence and to unhappiness. That was the general atmosphere before the coup.

Was the coup unexpected?

It wasn’t a complete surprise for people who had been following the events. When the revolution happened, there was a partnership between the civilians and the military. The agreement was that for the first part of the transitional government, the military would be in charge and then in the second part, the civilians would be in charge. The civilian term was coming within the month, and the military didn’t want to hand over power. They have more than 80% of the economy under their hand. They were in charge of the interior ministry and the Ministry of Defense and so all the military, the police, all the security organizations are under them. The military wants to maintain power by whatever pretext.

What’s the intention of the top general, Abdel-Fattah Burhan?

It appears his intention is to end the civilian regime and reincarnate the regime which was just deposed, but in a new shape. He wants to have the continuation of the grip on power and grip on wealth, and that could only continue with the military at the helm. He was also implicated in the war in Darfur, as was his second in command, and there’s been a call to hand off Bashir to the International Criminal Court and that’s not something he’s wanted to do. There seems to be an issue of personal protection for Burhan and if he’s at the helm will not be prosecuted, so he’s taken the whole country as a hostage.

How should the international community be responding to the situation?

The international community should not give any legitimacy to this regime because it is a coup. It is a coup against the will of the Sudanese. It is a continuation of the regime, which they just deposed and people paid a hefty price for that. Giving any kind of legitimacy would mean the continuation of the atrocities of the old regime. They’ve now frozen a lot of articles in the constitutional charter which were at the heart of the transitional government’s responsibilities hoping they can get away with what they have just done.

What’s your biggest concern right now?

My biggest concern is that this violence could continue for a while and there would be more civilian casualties, eventually leading to a military dictatorship. I wouldn’t expect a 100% military dictatorship but could see them using some civilians to make it a sham civilian government, as a way to say this is a continuation of the transitional government. The general is saying he wants to have elections in June, rather than in two years, but history would just tell us that those elections would be continuously postponed. That is the fear, but at the same time the international community is putting a lot of pressure on the regime. The African Union suspended Sudan from its membership and the UN security council has called for them to restore the transitional government. So there’s a lot of pressure.

What’s the most important thing for people to understand about what happened?

People need to know Sudan was under a dictatorship for 30 years and the people revolted against it. They just managed to form a transitional government for two years and there were to be elections after four years. The army which was part of that transitional government launched a coup, but the will of the people will always have primacy over a dictatorship. I believe, in the end, the people will prevail.