Setting Climate Committments for Corby

Quantifying the implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement for Corby

Date: August 2021

Key Messages

This report presents climate change targets for CorbyDefined in terms of the administrative boundary of the Corby area. that are derived from the commitments enshrined in the Paris Agreement [1], informed by the latest science on climate change [2] and defined in terms of science based carbon setting [3]. The report provides Corby with budgets for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and from the energy system for 2020 to 2100.


Based on our analysis, for Corby to make its ‘fair’ contribution towards the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the following recommendations should be adopted:

  1. Stay within a maximum cumulative carbon dioxide emissions budget of 2.9 million tonnes (MtCO2) for the period of 2020 to 2100. At 2017 CO2 emission levelsBased on BEIS LA statistics 2017 CO2 emissions Corby (excluding aviation, shipping, process CO2 emissions from cement production and those from LULUCF)., Corby would use this entire budget within 7 years from 2020.
  2. Initiate an immediate programme of CO2 mitigation to deliver cuts in emissions averaging a minimum of -13.0% per year to deliver a Paris aligned carbon budget. These annual reductions in emissions require national and local action, and could be part of a wider collaboration with other local authorities.


3. Results

3.1 Energy Only Budgets for Corby

Following the Method the recommended energy only CO2 carbon budget for the Corby area for the period of 2020 to 2100 is 2.9 MtCO2. To translate this into near to long term commitments a CO2 reduction pathway within the 2.9 MtCO2 is proposed here. A consistent emissions reduction rate of -13.0% out to the end of the century is applied. In 2042 95% of the recommended carbon budget is emitted and low level CO2 emissions continue at a diminishing level to 2100.

Figure 1: An interactive chart of Energy related CO2 only emissions pathways (2010-2100) for Corby premised on the recommended carbon budget.


Pathway projections for Corby

Table 1 presents the Corby energy CO2 only budget in the format of the 5-year carbon budget periods in the UK Climate Change Act. To align the 2020 to 2100 carbon budget with the budget periods in the Climate Change Act we have included estimated CO2 emissions for Corby for 2018 and 2019, based on BEIS provisional national emissions data for 2018 [14] and assuming the same year on year reduction rate applied to 2019. The combined carbon budget for 2018 to 2100 is therefore 3.8 MtCO2.

Table 1: Periodic Carbon Budgets for 2018 for Corby.

Carbon Budget PeriodRecommended Carbon Budget (Mt CO2)
2018 - 20221.9
2023 - 20271.0
2028 - 20320.5
2033 - 20370.2
2038 - 20420.1
2043 - 20470.1
2048 - 21000.1



3.2 Recommended Allocation Regime for Carbon Budget



Population and Gross Value AddedBalanced approach at current basic prices (GVA) are alternative allocation regimes. Population shares the carbon budget equally across the UK on a per capita basis. In this allocation regime the UK population [15] is compared to that of Corby [16] from 2011 to 2016. The carbon budget (2020-2100) for Corby is then apportioned based on its average proportion of the UK population for the period 2011-2016. For regions where per capita energy demand deviates significantly from the average (e.g. a large energy intensive industry is currently located there) the budget allocated may not be equitable for all regions, therefore it is not recommended as the preferred allocation. GVA is used as an economic metric to apportion carbon budgets. For example, the UK total GVA [17] is compared to that of Corby [17] from 2011 to 2016. The carbon budget (2020-2100) for Corby is then apportioned based on Corby's average proportion of UK GVA for the period 2011-2016. GVA can be useful as a proxy for allocation on economic value, however without an adjustment for the type of economic activity undertaken, areas with high economic ‘value’ relative to energy use can get a relatively large budget, while the inverse is true for areas with energy intensive industries, and/or lower relative economic productivity. We would therefore not recommend GVA as an appropriate allocation regime for all regions.


Table 2: Energy only CO2 budgets and annual mitigation rates for Corby (2020-2100) by allocation regime

Allocation regime (% of UK Budget allocated to CorbyUK BudgetAfter deducting an emissions budget for aviation, shipping and military transport of 1,518 MtCO2 (MtCO2)Corby Budget (MtCO2)Average Annual Mitigation Rate (%)
Grandfathering to Corby from UK (0.1%)2,2392.9-13.0%
Population split to Corby from UK (0.1%)2,2392.3-16.1%
GVA split to Corby from UK (0.1%)2,2391.9-18.2%


3.3 Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry emissions for Corby


3.4 Non-CO2 Emissions



The Department of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy’s Local Authority emissions statistics do not at this time provide non-CO2 emissions data at the regional level. Given the absence of robust non-CO2 emissions data, any non-CO2 emissions inventory by other organisations at scope 1 and 2 for Corby may form the basis of monitoring and planning for these emissions. We recommend considering the adoption of a LULUCF pathway that includes CO2 sequestration sufficient to help compensate for non-CO2 emissions within Corby's administrative area.

4. Conclusions

The results in this report show that for Corby to make its fair contribution to delivering the Paris Agreement's commitment to staying “well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C” global temperature rise, then an immediate and rapid programme of decarbonisation is needed. At 2017 CO2 emission levelsBased on Corby's 2016 CO2 emissions (excluding aviation, shipping, process CO2 emissions from cement production and those from LULUCF)., Corby will exceed the recommended budget available within 7 years from 2020. To stay within the recommended carbon budget Corby will, from 2020 onwards, need to achieve average mitigation rates of CO2 from energy of around -13.0% per year. This will require that Corby rapidly transitions away from unabated fossil fuel use. For context the relative change in CO2 emissions from energy compared to a 2015 Paris Agreement reference year are shown in Table 3.


YearReduction in Annual Emissions (based on recommended pathway)



CO2 emissions in the carbon budget related to electricity use from the National Grid in Corby are largely dependent upon national government policy and changes to power generation across the country. It is recommended however that Corby promote the deployment of low carbon electricity generation within the region and where possible influence national policy on this issue.
