The first Covid-19 case was in China in early October 2019 - months earlier than previously thought, according to new analysis by British scientists.

They have developed a new method of predicting when and where the first coronavirus cases occurred.

The origins of the global pandemic have remained unclear and, while the first official case was recorded in December 2019, mounting evidence suggests it began earlier.

Now, scientists at the University of Kent, have clarified timings using a method previously developed to calculate the date animal species are likely to become extinct.

The first Covid-19 infection in Europe is likely to have occurred in Spain on January 12 last year, according to the researchers.

They say that being able to pin-point when and where the pandemic all started could help track the spread of Covid-19 in future and shed light on other infectious diseases.

Study author Dr David Roberts said: “The method we used was originally developed by me and a colleague to date extinctions, however, here we use it to date the origination and spread of Covid-19.


The method, which predicts species’ doom-date based on recorded sightings, was reverse engineered to pinpoint D-day for the global pandemic.

By applying this mathematical model to the earliest Covid cases across 203 countries, the researchers were able to determine the date it most likely all started.

Based on their analysis, the first case occurred in China between early October and mid-November of 2019, months earlier than has been previously reported.

More precisely, the first infection was likely on 17 November, before spreading around the world by January 2020.

Their findings support mounting evidence the global pandemic started earlier and grew more rapidly than previously thought.

When exactly the virus spread to the first five countries outside China, as well as to other continents was also calculated.

The first case outside of China likely occurred in Japan on 3 January 2020, the researchers say.

Nine days later, the first coronavirus case in Europe probably occurred in Spain.

It then spread to North America, most likely arriving in the United States four days after that on January 16 last year, the researchers say.

The “novel method” could better understand the spread of infectious diseases in the future.

Likewise, clarifying the origins of Covid-19 could improve our understanding of its spread in the future.

Dr Roberts said: “Our analysis suggests that the first case occurred in China between early October and mid-November of 2019.

“These findings support growing evidence that the pandemic arose sooner and grew more rapidly than officially accepted.”

Coronavirus has killed 3,899,871 people worldwide, including 617,875 in the United States and 128,008 in the UK.

The findings were presented in the journal PLOS Pathogens.