Step 6: Estimate Likelihoods

by Dana L. Hoag & Jay Parsons, Colorado State University

In Step 6, we calculate the probability of each possible outcome for every management action under consideration. Few people really understand probability, but the SRMP can help. Fortunately, there are some well established concepts and tools available to aid the decision-maker in Corn Harvest putting this all together. The SRMP uses your historical data, or even just your judgment if information is not available, to produce a graphical representation of likelihood (or probability) in the form of a histogram, a probability density function, or a cumulative density function. These graphical pictures are among the tools that can be used by the decision-maker to estimate the likelihood of an outcome occurring.

Probability of Corn Prices The diagram shows a histogram of corn price probabilities and the familiar bell-shaped probability density function. The chance of the price being $3/bushel is 30 percent. This is three times more likely than the price being $2/bushel, which is 10 percent. Real-life probabilities do not usually behave so well; they are usually a lot more bumpy and asymmetrical. With the help of the SRMP, you can trace out the probabilities for your own crop yields, prices, or most anything else.