The Fed's Role In GameStop

All of the news articles and media commentary on the volatility in GameStop (GME) stock last week centered on the supposed war between retail investors who were buying the stock, putting a squeeze on those evil rich hedge-fund managers who had shorted the stock. And the Davids, at least for now, were beating the Goliaths. Good versus evil is always easy to understand and makes for a compelling story, especially when "the little guy" prevails.

Morality play aside, a lot of people were probably scratching their heads as to why some people would be so enthusiastic about buying stock in a company that appears to be 10 years behind the times, seeing as how its main business consists of selling or reselling physical copies of digital games even as the rest of the world has moved onto streaming. It also cast a lot of attention on short-selling, with many people receiving a crash course in the tactic.

However, it's also another example of how the Federal Reserve's super-loose monetary policy and 0% interest rates are distorting investor behavior. While retail investors on Robinhood and other platforms are driving up the price of what otherwise might be a stock headed in the other direction, we need to remember one of the reasons why investors are willing to make such outlandish bets like this.

It demonstrates the lengths some investors will go to make money because it's become difficult to do so in more conventional (i.e., safe) investments, such as quality stocks and bonds. It also reveals the almost devil-may-care attitude some investors have adopted, believing that the Fed will eventually ride to their rescue. Continue reading "The Fed's Role In GameStop"

The Rebels From Reddit Favor Silver

The internet is still one of the most revolutionary things invented. The new level of communication and coordination it gives us is just amazing. Hedge funds could not imagine a sudden coordinated attack that started as a post on Reddit could impact them so hard. The next market in their crosshairs? Silver!

The GameStop frenzy just let the dogs out. Lately, the retail investors from the famous Reddit chat Wallstreetbets started looking towards the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) as they are looking forward to profiting from the same strategy of short squeeze earlier mastered on GameStop shares. They chose SLV ETF because its shares are backed with physical silver.

I prepared two silver charts to show you how the retail market force changed the structure and its outcomes.


There is an optimistic scenario depicted in the chart above. It implies the completion of the entire corrective structure. The red leg 2 down is considered to be done as it traveled only 0.618 of the red leg 1 distance. As you may remember, it is the Fibonacci ratio. The joint between legs 1 and 2 looks weird but is yet possible. Continue reading "The Rebels From Reddit Favor Silver"

Stock Market Feels The Squeeze

The DOW dropped more than 600 pts Friday to finish January with its worst week since October losing over -3.2%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ couldn't avoid a selloff, with both indexes losing -3.3% and -3.4%, respectively. The reason for the losses, a short squeeze of all short squeezes.

It started on January 25th when a group of retail investors identified Gamestop Corp (GME) as a buy on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum. This group of day traders continued to encourage each other to pile into GameStop's shares and call options, creating a massive short squeeze that inflicted pain for hedge funds betting against the stock. So much so that the trading app, Robinhood, seized trading mid-week of GME stock as well as several other stocks. After resuming trading Thursday, Robinhood has been limiting the number of shares that the retail investor can purchase.

All told, the short-selling hedge funds have suffered a loss of nearly 20 billion year to date, including a nearly $8 billion loss on Friday as the GME kept ripping higher. Still, short-sellers mostly are holding onto their bearish positions, or they are being replaced by new hedge funds willing to bet against the stock. GameStop shares that have been borrowed and sold short have declined by just about 5 million over the last week, marking an 8% dip in the short interest, according to S3. Most of the short-covering occurred on Thursday when the stock fell for the first time in six days, according to data from S3 Partners. Continue reading "Stock Market Feels The Squeeze"