Clinton’s lead over Trump grows to 11% in latest Ipsos-Reuters poll

Yet another poll shows Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump growing. The Ipsos-Reuters poll shows Clinton with a lead of 11% (46% to 35%), compared to her 9 percentage point lead in an Ipsos-Reuters poll in late February, and her 7 point lead in mid-February.

Unlike most other polls, this poll (an Internet poll) shows Clinton with an even bigger lead over Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) than over Donald Trump. In most polls, Clinton fares worse against Cruz, Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio) than against Trump. The Huffington Post average of polls shows Kasich with a 2-point lead over Clinton; Rubio in a deadheat with Clinton; Cruz four points behind Clinton; and Trump 6.5 points behind Clinton. RealClearPolitics shows Rubio leading Clinton by 5%, Kasich leading Clinton by 7.4%, Cruz leading Clinton by 1.5%, and Trump losing to Clinton by 3.4%.

Trump does worse in most swing states than Rubio (although perhaps not in Rubio’s home state of Florida, ironically; Trump also may fare as well in Pennsylvania, but no Republican has carried Pennsylvania since 1988, so it may not be a swing state).

Most of the states Trump won in the Super Tuesday primary were not swing states. He did narrowly win the primary in the swing state of Virginia, but polls show he would lose there in the November election in a landslide, even though Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio would be competitive with Clinton there. A recent Roanoke College poll says likely “Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump (52%-35%) and is statistically tied with Republican hopefuls Ted Cruz (45%-41%) and Marco Rubio (46%-43%), …. Donald Trump’s unfavorable rating is the highest of all contenders (63%, with 22% favorable, and 15% mixed/don’t know).” Similarly, Christopher Newport University’s poll of Virginia voters found that “Marco Rubio has the highest favorable rating among all candidates (44%),” with a 38% disapproval rating, while Trump has a staggering 64% disapproval rate.

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Trump is virtually certain to be the Republican nominee if he wins the upcoming winner-take-all primaries in both Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, the two leading candidates in the polls are Trump and Ohio Governor John Kasich. In Florida, Trump had a hefty lead over Rubio in recent polls. Trump had a smaller lead over Kasich in Ohio, so it is possible that Kasich will beat him there, especially if supporters of other candidates vote for Kasich to deny Trump a victory in that state.

Hans Bader

Hans Bader


