Can Tupperware Brands Stock Bounce Back After Shedding 6% Last Week?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Tupperware Brands (NYSE:TUP) reached its 52-week high of $38 in January 2021, but has since dropped from that level. Further, the stock fell almost 6% in the past week, to levels of around $21 currently, and has, in fact, dropped 12% over the past month. Tupperware reported Q2 2021 earnings early this August, with revenue coming in at $465 million, up from $397 million in Q2 2020. Further, as COGS and other operating expenses rose at a slower rate, operating income grew to $76 million, up strongly from $46 million for the same period last year. However, a $46 million rise in loss on debt extinguishment, combined with a higher effective tax rate, weighed on net income, dragging EPS down to $0.71 in Q2 ’21 from $1.30 in Q2 ’20. Demand for Tupperware’s kitchen storage and household products jumped during the lockdown as people started working at home, leading to a rise in meal prep and the need for plastic storage containers. However, with people stepping out more now, investor expectations surrounding Tupperware stock could drop, as demand for its products will most likely return to pre-Covid levels.

However, after a 6% fall in a week, will Tupperware stock continue its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a recovery in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for Tupperware stock average 4.5% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 5.6% drop over the previous week (five trading days).

But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Tupperware stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Tupperware stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF Tupperware stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days Tupperware stock moves an average of 4%, but with an average 52.3% probability of a positive return over this period.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Tupperware Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for Tupperware stock higher after a drop?

Answer: Consider two situations,

Case 1: Tupperware stock drops by 5% or more in a week

Case 2: Tupperware stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Tupperware stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

Tupperware stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 4% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 7% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Tupperware stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer: If you buy and hold Tupperware stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For Tupperware stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Tupperware after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Tupperware stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.


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