Thursday, October 30, 2014

My Ideas For The Yankees Offseason

Now that that pesky World Series thing is out of the way, it's time to get the offseason started.

While a number of writers are breaking down what the Yankees should do this offseason by going position by position, I thought I'd skip those that don't need attention, and move to their more pressing problems. I mean, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner have center and left field pretty well covered. The same goes for right field, as the team is likely hoping Carlos Beltran can play the majority of games there, or could play Martin Prado out there again like they did last season. Oh, and you can pencil in Brian McCann as the Opening Day starter at catcher.

Then you come to the left side of the infield, the bullpen, and of course... the starting rotation. I suppose a backup first baseman shouldn't be ignored, either.

McCann didn't do a bad job, but another option would be nice.

I wanted to lead off with the starting rotation. While I understand people wanting to see the Yankees sign Max Scherzer or Jon Lester, I don't understand why some people see it as a need.

Per Fangraphs WAR, Yankees' starters were 3rd in the American League. Two of the guys returning to the team next season, Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda, were ranked 2nd and 3rd among starters. However, keep in mind that they each missed quite a few starts, and without those missed starts they could have easily been the top two starters on the team. There's good reason to be worried about each player's health, but that doesn't mean the Yankees should go out and spend upwards of $150 million for Scherzer or Lester in case either or both of them go down again. You have to plan on those two being around. That doesn't mean not having depth, but "depth" falls on guys like David Phelps and Shane Greene... not somebody making over $20 million a season. I've said it plenty of times before... spending that much money should be done on guys needed, not simply wanted.

CC Sabathia has at least 2 more years left with the Yankees (he has an option for another year depending on the health of his left shoulder), and that makes some fans sad. Not me. You see, even though Sabathia probably won't ever again be the ace we saw years ago, that doesn't mean he's worthless. In 2013, quite possible his worst season as a professional, CC was still ranked 46th among qualified starters. So while I wouldn't want him starting big games for the Yankees, as a #3 starter I'm perfectly content. Stop thinking about what he's paid, and just think about what he can or can't do for the team.

Shane Green is somebody that's caught the eye of many in the Yankees organization. In 14 starts last season he posted an ERA of 3.79, while striking out just over a batter an inning. And keeping half of batted balls on the ground bodes well for a guy that would pitch most of the time at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. That doesn't mean I think Shane should be thrust into the top of the rotation, but as a 4th or 5th starter I think he'd not only do well but could excel.

So there we have four starters for Opening Day. By the way, I said "for Opening Day" because a month or two into the season Ivan Nova will return from Tommy John surgery. And if Ivan can pitch anything like he did in 2013, then the Yankees will be in a very nice position.

On the surface you might think the Yankees just need somebody to give the team a few starts until Nova returns (David Phelps?), at which point the rotation will be all set, but I wouldn't feel comfortable doing that. Sure, I may be optimistic about the health of Tanaka, Pineda, and Sabathia, but I'm not stupid. Even if those three didn't miss a single start in 2015, there's still a chance that Green gets hurt, Nova suffers a setback during rehab, or Phelps has issues.That means bringing in another pitcher as insurance. And not just any "insurance," but good "insurance." And to me that guy is Brandon McCarthy.

While Lester and Scherzer will likely demand contracts in the range of 7 years and $165 million, McCarthy could be looking at a deal around 3 years and $45 million. No matter how good he was last season, Brandon has missed way too much time over the years to warrant being given a deal much higher. Should Brandon go down with injury again, a contract like that would be much easier for a team like the Yankees to stomach, making it a good gamble in my opinion. And if McCarthy does stay healthy, then the Yankees have an average starter at worst.

Yeah, this picture has nothing to do with what I'm talking about. But it's NPH, and he's awesome.

Since we're on the subject of pitching I'm going to next take a look at the bullpen. Last season, again... per Fangraphs WAR, the Yankees were tied with the Royals as having the best bullpen in baseball. And while middle relievers have something to do with that, I'm more concerned with the two guys that the Yankees depend on most in the 'pen...the closer and set-up man. Dellin Betances, who busted out in a huge way last season, will be back next season. And while he may not be quite as dominant in his sophomore season in MLB, I see no reason why he won't be among the better relievers yet again. However, just because he could very likely thrive as the new closer, that doesn't mean the Yankees should let David Robertson walk away.

The loss of Robertson would leave gigantic shoes to fill. Face it, the Yankees were lucky last year when they didn't find a suitable replacement for Mariano Rivera. Even though Robertson was there to step into the closer's role, the set-up spot was hardly solidified. If it wasn't for Dellin stepping up like he did, then there's a good chance the team would have been eliminated from postseason play much sooner than they were. And I sure as hell don't want to go into next season hoping to get lucky again. So re-signing Robertson should be fairly high on the team's to-do list this offseason. In fact, they should get it done as soon as possible so they can move on to other things.

Onto the infield... I really think the team should bring back Chase Headley. Not only will the team not have to give Headley a large contract like they would somebody like Pablo Sandoval, but the guy has shown a love of New York. That means quite a bit to me.

On that note, the fact that Carlos Beltran wanted to be a Yankee so bad that he turned down two larger offers makes me believe in him bouncing back. Playing poorly is bad enough for a professional athlete, but doing so in a place where you really want to play has to hurt quite a bit more.

Back to Headley...

Chase's wOBA of .347 is pretty good, and would be welcome back. Sure, I'd like to see him get some more power back, as a .398 slugging percentage (what he did with the Yankees last season) is cringe-worthy, but being able to get on base as often as he did is certainly a good thing.

Then you have Headley's ability to play 1B. Mark Teixeira is not going to be able to play a ton in the field, as he has a fairly good size injury history (as mentioned in a previous article of mine), making Headley's ability to handle 1B every so often a good one. And in that case you can play either Alex Rodriguez (whose contract is not going to be terminated... sorry) or Martin Prado at third.

I suppose I should have mentioned that I really don't think Alex Rodriguez is going to be able to play regularly at third base. With all his hip issues, his missed time due too suspension, and the fact that he was an average defender there in the first place, I think ARod will spend the majority his remaining MLB career as a designated hitter.

Then again, it might be a good idea to just release Rodriguez. The team would probably be better off, as it's highly likely that Alex has to go on the DL again at some point anyway. Not to mention that they will have to give DH time to Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira too.

That's probably a dream, though. So might as well include ARod when talking about the 2015 Yankees.

Yeah, that looks better.

That leaves the most pressing concern... shortstop. The only guy within the organization that could regularly take over the position is Brendan Ryan, and I really wouldn't want a guy that's hit .234/.295/.314 in his career to get anything close to regular playing time. And looking at the free agency pool doesn't get me excited either.

Asdrubal Cabrera has hit pretty bad the past two years, Jed Lowrie's bat isn't much better, and Stephen Drew doesn't instill a ton of confidence at the plate either. For a team like the Yankees, who were pretty bad offensively last season, those options are bad, bad, and bad. Then we come to Hanley Ramirez.

Now, I'm well aware of the fact that Ramirez is a shortstop by name only. As a matter of fact, he reminds me of a player that is good for fantasy baseball, as he's eligible at a premium position, but in reality you probably wouldn't play him there. But when thinking about Ramirez I remembered two things...

  1. The Yankees have to put offensive ability before defensive ability. Run prevention wasn't nearly as big a problem as run production.
  2. The Yankees previous shortstop wasn't the greatest defender, either.

At 30 years old, with a little work, I think Hanley could get the job done at short for a few more years. That doesn't mean I think he could win a Gold Glove, but I don't think he would be a huge liability on defense. And assuming he were signed for five years, third or first base could open up for him to be moved to.

Again, run production is the key thing to gain this offseason, and Hanley's the best option to get that done.

So let's review...

  1. Sign Brandon McCarthy
  2. Re-sign David Robertson
  3. Sign Chase Headley
  4. Sign Hanley Ramirez

I believe the top three things could happen pretty soon. The Yankees should take advantage of their exclusive negotiating window with Robertson and get him locked up, while McCarthy and Headley have said they loved their time with the Yankees and would like to return. I don't know much of anything about what Ramirez is thinking, so he could be tough. Perhaps he bought a house and is settled on the west coast, making it easier for the Dodgers to retain him. But he did play for the Marlins and the Mets before going to LA, and playing for the Yankees is still attractive to baseball players.

So you bring back the majority of what was the best pitching staff in the American League last season, improve on offense with Ramirez over Jeter, and hope guys like McCann and Beltran can get back to their pre-2014 selves. Not to mention Alex Rodriguez being able to come back from missing the last 1+ years and contribute, and Mark Teixeira being able to cope with a something as minor as a hangnail without needing to take a day or two off. What I'm saying is the Yankees have a tough hill to climb to be true contenders in 2015, but it's not impossible to do so either.

Seriously, Mark... get up and play already.


  1. Bryan, very well done again...
    I am with you on most of what you wrote:
    Sign Brandon McCarthy
    Re-sign David Robertson
    Sign Chase Headley
    Sign Hanley Ramirez
    but, I very much disagree on the SS position. This may sound crazy, but I would go for having Drew back at SS next year. Reason being; He is a true SS and a good glove. He will hit much better next year than he did this year for sure....234 is not that hard to beat is it? Thus, it gives one of the kids in the lower farm time to show what they can do instead of tying up Short-Stop for 4-5 years it can be for two or three.
    Thank you for that post, maybe the front office reads this Blog.

    1. I could understand wanting somebody signed for fewer years, as not to block a prospect. But the problem with that is the top SS prospect, Abe Avelina, is only 19. Not only is he a few years away at best, but keeping a spot on the MLB roster open for a guy just coming out of rookie ball (and a quad injury) is not smart. Especially not for a team that is always in "win now" mode.

      I wasn't 100% in on Hanley Ramirez, but seeing what this team needs more than anything (offense), led me to go there. If I trusted Sandoval more, then I'd say go with him and get a better defender for SS, but I don't. Pablo may be healthy now, but overweight guys like him break down a heck of a lot faster. And at 28 years old, we have to face the fact that Pablo is not going to get better from here on out.

  2. The Yankees are in a somewhat unique situation where they almost have to sacrifice defense for offense at this point. There just isn't one glaringly obvious position to upgrade except for shortstop, their hands are tied about everywhere else.

    It's almost Hanley or bust for 2015 in my eyes. Pitching can be great but it doesn't matter if you lose 1-0.

  3. I still say sign Drew, good glove and range and a plus bat for next year. Ok, this year he sucked but, I still believe he tried to make-up for missing spring training by pushing the wrong buttons. He is better than that!
    Besides that, if you end up with another statue at SS there will be more balls hit though that left side then ever before. Headley plays very close to the line all the time and A-Rod may or may not be able to move a step or two to his left and cover as he did before.
    So what if a guy can produce a run or so better than the next guy if he gives up more runs playing in the field! Why pay him to be a part-time DH when we have plenty of them already?
    Many say, A-Rod was a poor 3rd baseman, not true, he was playing out of position most of the time. Of course, no one in their right mind would ever say A-Rod was a real good 3rd baseman but, he was better than a lot of them out there.

    1. I too believe Drew is a better hitter than what we saw last year, but it's a matter of being willing to gamble on that or not.

      If Hanley wants too much money, then I'm perfectly fine letting him go and settling for Drew. But going after Hanley should be the first priority.

    2. My reasoning is very simple (minded), I don't care for fat over the hill ball players wanting a lot of money for what they did once upon a time. If one can't play the field or, DH and play the field, what good is he on a team with 3 or 4 DH/Field guys already on the team?
      I understand the need for a big bat, and that is a good reason for going after him, but I like all-around players...the younger the better!

  4. Bryan, you Daniel, Jeff and the others have been a breath of freash air for Patrick and I! You have no idea how much we appecate the differences.
    One commenter here could never understand how one can get so upset over a person that twests and turns everything one writes into reading completly different.
    Without our different opinions, what good is this or anyother site

    1. Absolutely. Gets pretty boring if everyone agrees all the time. Debate is healthy and it makes for activity around here, which we need more of... health and activity :)


Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)