Afghanistan’s fearful future

So long, buddy

As it ponders what kind of force to leave in Afghanistan after 2014, the White House has started talking about a “zero option”

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Readers' comments




The whole region is a feudal mess of incompetent rapacious thieves. They have killed each other for thousands of years and will not stop just because we think it is the nice thing to do.

5M6bkSdZgq in reply to L6QjhvJGVk

Not true the Korean war took place because South Korea was fighting the communist North and it was a un police action not for no reason and as a result South Korea is still democratic modern country seperate from the dysfunctional north.


Why so bleak? Rome wasn't built in a day, and it wasn't built on foreign aids either.


Karzai needs continual full support of the west to sustain his fragile presidency and to ensure the safety of his amassed wealth. Without the US presence, he will be just another hapless lame duck. (mtd1943)


The US will *never* be able to make Afghanistan into a peaceful country, let alone a prosperous, educated, democracy.

Afghan fighters are not smart nor capable. But they never give up, no matter how many die in the process.

Given that reality, the US goal should be to prevent Afghanistan from nurturing terrorist groups. This goal is attainable, assuming we can maintain a credible threat of re-invading Afghanistan if necessary.

There are two factors which would enable that goal:

1) Have Pakistan stop interfering with Afghan politics via a mixture of bribes and covert operations (including surgical drone strikes against Pakistani-propped leaders).

2) Have a strong leader in Kabul. Not sure as to how Karzai fulfills that role (someone like Najibullah would have been great). It appears to me that Karzai will bribe his way (with American money) into some form of peace with the local warlords.

(About $5 billion per year should keep Afghanistan in a limbo for the next couple of decades)

Germanborn Turk in reply to FHenryM

What a selfish, immoral, inhuman,barbaric Suggestion. What you are demanding means dead of millions of women and children in Afghanistan and Irak. The barbaric Mullahs in Iran should be bombed away like, what happened to Taliban. One should Destroy with acurate weapons their Infrastruktur, but Save the civilians

guest-ieeinnj in reply to Grimreaper

I take it you have never been there. I have and rest assured the Afghans want us to stay. They are fearful of the day that the last American soldier leaves. To think that the average Afghan only wants to murder each other is racist and ignorant.

Inshai in reply to swastik

Yes,you do have a point,the trio PM a Sikh,Forgein Minister Muslim,Defence Minister Christian makes a cesspit called India...Have you considerd saving young girls being raped in Dehli? No?....progenies of Kali,aka,swastik...

Ramon Colomer

Afghanistan accounts for 90% of the world production of papaver somniferum and 70% of Afghans depend on poppy crops for a living. So I don't see a near end to druglords in sight until Afghan poppy production is naturalized and it finds a legal pathway to world markets.

As a matter of fact, up to the mid 20th century poppy was naturally grown in rural Spain as a medicine. Poppy seeds were given to teething babies as a natural painkiller as it allowed them to sleep through this painful stage in their lives. Thus demonizing medicinal plants, such as poppy, is not only plain ignorance, but also creates conflict with Afghan farmers and suffering for users of poppy and its derivates in the West.


It is not a soldiers' only problem.
google: 1310-is-Afghanistan-a-sinking-boat-anxiety-about-the-2014-withdrawal

emmess74 in reply to sikko6

Let me get this straight
You are saying America started the Korean war because it didn't want a wealthy united Korea i.e. a North Korea over the whole Korean peninsula and no South Korea
If you say someone is smoking something, you must be injecting it.


In reply to guest-ieennj:
Yup the average Afghan loves America/West and liberal democracy and fears their own leadership.That is the reason that the Afghan Taliban is able to successfully keep the worlds most powerful militaries tied down in a bloody stalemate for over a dozen years.Incidentally while you have visited there,I am from that part of the world and better understand the language,culture, religous zealotry and xenophobia that drives the Afghan.Your approach is that of the usual well meaning American/Western Liberal,trying to save the soul of savages.
Incidentally even Winston Churchill one of the greatest statesman born during the hey day of the British Empire also felt that Mahatma Gandhi was a pseudo western liberal and his pacific and non violent struggle to get India its independence was not what the average Indian wanted.Churchill sincerely beleived that the average Indian wanted the British to govern India.We all know how erroneous the Churchillian view was and with all its shortcomings India today is a vibrant self governing democracy.
India sought independence thru pacificist means in line with its political culture.The Afghans want their sovereignity and independence back and they are doing it the way they think best,by resisting the occupiers with military force in keeping with their culture and martial traditions.
When will America/Western Liberal democracies understand and accept that their political philosophy is not suitable/acceptable to other peoples and their myriad cultures.We had Vietnam,Iraq and now Afghanistan, still the meddling goes on.And if you think this view is racist and ignorant,you are entitled to think so.But immaterial of what you think is that it does not change the position on the ground.In the end may I suggest that you read the last thousand years of Afghan history before pontificating on what the average Afghan wants.Along the way you may read the experiences and views of the British and the Russians soldiers who fought the Afghans in the earlier two centuries and were ultimately driven out.


The "zero option" is an interesting one that will surely have a large impact of the Afghan public's mentality and attitude about the future. Specifically, I wonder how the possibility of a "zero option" will impact migration. As one of the world's great conflict diasporas this is surely an issue that needs to be considered. A very good report on the issue of migration in Afghanistan can be found here:


Can a people be left alone to decide their future? The answer has to be yes, for that is the true meaning of sovereignty. And NO, if that means they will support or create nasty surprises for other countries. That is the danger of Afghanistan and not just if Al-Qaeda fanatics or militant Talibans come in to power. Even a more modern and liberal Afghan government will face four huge problems- opium growing will become bigger and bigger; the two big tribes of Durranis and Ghilzais and three big ethnic groups of Pashtoons, Tajiks and Uzbeks will fight each other to death; Pakistan will move in, not just the border tribes of FATA and NWFP but the State of Pakistan; and finally the Kabul government will be woefully short of money. The old tribal leaders are gone, killed by Najib, Russians and the Talibans. Three decades of foreign dominance has left no national leader of any experience or mass appeal. One can understand the USA's reluctance to bleed indefinitely, but USA too should not be surprised if other attacks strike it from the militant bases stretching from Kandahar, through Quetta, Waziristan and trans-border tribal lands. There will be enough blood debts that remain to be collected. It is not impossible to see Afghanistan to degenerate quickly in to a geographical term which in reality is a series of ungovernable patches. Apart from the Afghans themselves, the Pakistanis will be the biggest losers. The Pathans already dominate the drugs and the transport system, esp in north-west and Sindh-Baloochistan.
India, Iran, Russia, China must join the USA to invest enough money in Afghan economy to give people hope that violence is not the only way to get a little less poorer. If they don't, they will suffer.

Xander-in-a-can in reply to Grimreaper

There are two endgames that could result in Western Understanding:

1) The cost for the West simply becomes untenable and politically devastating.

2) Afghan men treat women correctly.

Sadly neither of those two things are likely to happen.


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