Germany and the euro

Let the Greeks ruin themselves


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Tomas Marny


I don’t believe that immigration would much help growth of companies:

1] There is relatively high unemployment rate in all European countries already and so the first goal is to activate these “reserves”.

2] Most immigrants are not well qualified to have high added value long term jobs. They often fall into the social welfare network and are rather burden in long-term run.

3] Companies can grow if the labour cost is low and people do not demand high salaries. But thanks to the generous social welfare, the labour cost is very high and it’s often cheaper to do things electronically and/or with machinery. For example – commercial banks are trying to replace office-based transactions with electronic internet-based transaction and limit bank branches office hours. Moreover, European labour law is very protective and it does not allow to “exploit” employees. In such a situation, every company has to calculate whether each single employee pays off.

As for the in-vitro fertilization it depends on a country or even insurance company but I believe that it’s paid from healthcare insurance in most countries as it’s a pretty common method. For example, in the Czech Republic, it is paid 3x to women who are under the age of 40. Above this age (or if they want more attempts), they have to pay about $2000 for each cycle, so it’s pretty affordable.


You cant teach that to an old population that makes it impossible to immigrate to their land (e.g. work visas, labor laws, nationalistic idelas).

Yes, the US is the only place you could go to a good school, become a board member of a Fortune 500 Company. In Germany, I could live there for 30 years but I will always be an American. If you immigrate to the US, you can work hard just like everyone else and become American.

However, the lack of structure and safety net scares true nationalists from migrated to the US. They will learn very soon that these lofty benefits are not even safe in Europe...


Only weak cultures die out.

Strong ones don't.

They assimilate other cultures, create a hybrid and move on.

In other words, they adapt and evolve.

Cultures that cannot do this are, to paraphrase Charles Darwin, not the "fittest".

Being closed does not help, it only makes the culture more isolated and weak.

Europe should learn from US that culture is not something engraved in stone that must be preserved eternity!

Rather it should be dynamic, ever adapting and evolving.


Yes, but with the current fertility statistics, there is an emergency or need for immigration. I dont believe in-vitro fertilization is covered by welfare or public plans, are they? I understand their are health benefits but again, i dont see how this will meet the current need for bodies.

Yes, Europe can live for cnturies but for governments to meet the needs for the massive public spending, they need people in thos jobs. For example the Eastern Germany reunification project. Build it and they will come.... And they didnt come...

Immigration will also allow corporate growth. The dichotomy of public spending and corporate growth, immigration is an emergency issue for Europe. And to the point i was trying to adddress, from a social and cultural perspective, immigration will only meet the supply side. Demand for cultural Biergartens, Cathedrals, Brasserie's, Cafe's will be moved to museums.

Europe is trying, trying to move to the political right but its loosing its grip during this financial and now sovereign crisis.

Tomas Marny


Well, technically speaking, cultures are preserved in forms of countless artifacts and can be easily reconstructed. We could reconstruct even ancient Roman culture if we wanted and they were keeping much fewer artifacts than we do now. What would extinct is native European races (but maybe they could be reconstructed from preserved DNA ;-)

But the aggressive immigration supported by European politicians causes fast changes in the way of life and it’s expected that non-European cultures will subdue original European ones in several decades which affects even current generation of people – so it’s much more immediate issue.

The point of my original post was that Europe could easily be living for centuries without immigration and without any significant economic compromises and your statements about “cultural extinction” are only purpose-built theoretical points and points of European "immigration lobby".

BTW – assisted reproduction is not only (still rather theoretical) cloning but many other methods, in particular in-vitro fertilization which allows older people and/or people with health issues to have children.


So cloning people will reverse the undeniable trend? I am not writing about extinction of humankind but rather of cultures within the European comminuty which are dying at an alarming rate. Once a "culture" has a fertility rate of 1.3 which the "European" fertility rate currently stands, its impossible to reverse. For some elders, this doesn't matter however, for "cultures" to be passed onto one another instead of in glass exhibits at musems, the fertility rates "must" be at 2.11. The EU is adopting an aggressive immigration policy so their future can survive however, the "cultures" will die.

Tomas Marny


In statistical sense, you’re right that long-term fertility rate has to be at least 2 to preserve culture/population. However, extinction would take thousands of years because European nations are quite numerous as there are no more wars that would kill them ;-)

And, again, you should take scientific achievements into account – European countries have great results with assisted reproduction therefore if there was a real danger, fertility can be increased by increasing incentives in this part of social welfare - it's not a technological problem.

The problem is rather that immigrants “override” culture of European nations by their cultures which is much more “clear and present danger” than complete extinction.

You should also realize that in the past wars and various epidemics caused substantial decrease of population (e.g. USA exist “thanks” to the British plague epidemics in 16th century) and yet, the economics and cultures has survived.

And as for “views”: Europe (as well as America) needs solutions because there is great dynamics in world events. World is losing certainties, the “old truths” are not valid anymore and changes are happening every day. Therefore all reasonably feasible economic future predictions should approximate recent qualitative and structural changes in technical, scientific and social fields and reflect experience of recent economic failures. It’s not possible to rely on long-term statistics and good old precedental solutions and theories.

And BTW – not everybody who advocates German positions and takes part in discussions about European future is necessarily a German ;-)


Herrn Marny: I have read you pints and they are all "views" but not solid statistical facts. Any accountant or economist in Berlin will make suggestions to politicians based on "statistical facts" and the ones aformentioned in my earlier post are not views. These are real and dire statitsics. No culture has nor can survive a 1.3 rate. Thats a fact. The Germans have a 1.3, and thats a fact. Whether you make up qualitative viewpoints, thats your freedom to do so wherever and on whatever but facts are again, facts...Immigration and their children will need to pay your pensions...Yes, thats correct, auslanders...

And your point of "So the main issue that Europeans have to solve is how to make people stop being lazy and what activities find for those whose work is not needed in economy"....This will never ever change...Malaise, denial, malaise, denial, malaise, denial....Until you incentivize and stop social welfare for your society, this has been, is and will always be the status quo...Malaise, denial, malaise, denial, malaise, denial...

Tomas Marny


I hope you’re not serious if you relate fertility rate and economic performance. In such a case, Africa would have to be the economic superpower no. 1 ;-)

The same way – using population decline as a point why Europe will have economic problems and/or needs external immigrants is a false hypothesis because it takes only quantitative issues into account, but completely miss qualitative ones.

1] Already since the industrial revolution (18th/19th centuries), productivity increases due to using machinery that replaces needs for human labour. This was also one of the motivation for introducing the communist ideologies because workers were massively losing jobs as they were not needed. And as technologies are gradually advancing the trend continues not only in industry but also in office work (e.g. computerization/electronization – if used efficiently – can save a lot of work and a lot of roles become redundant). Therefore, the issue is now different – what activities to introduce for so many people that will not be needed in economy….

2] Although “fertility rate” decreases, the length and quality of life increases due to advancements in healthcare and due to easier way of life. While thousand years ago, life expectancy was not more than 30, now it’s between 70 and 80 and the prospect are that age “over 100” will not be rare at the end of this century.

3] But, what’s even more important, not only life expectancy but also “active life expectancy” has been continuously increasing. People are active much longer – I guess these Economist discussions prove it as many commentators here are retired businessmen who miss their job and so they actively follow it at least on Internet ;-).

So the only thing that is needed for Europe is a pension reform. I would propose the following form:

1)The retirement age would be valid for each 5 years and would be derived from average life expectancy in previous 5 years by subtracting cca 10 – 20 years (e.g. life expectancy was 90, permitted retirement age is then 70 – 80) where the earlier somebody decides to retire, the lower pension he/she has.

2)The pensions would be guaranteed by state and funded from state budget and its calculation would take direct taxes paid by the citizen during his/her life into account. There would be some minimal pension for “parasites” only to prevent riots. The reason why state budget is used is because a) private pensions funds are prone to fail in the long period, b) special state account is nonsense because it’s hard to balance anyway c) it can be easily adjusted by adjusting also indirect taxes d) efficient economy will generate big profits with relatively low employment so “the machinery” would contribute to the pensions, not only human labour work.

Therefore there is no need for immigration because the more people you have, the fewer resources remain for each individual. So the main issue that Europeans have to solve is how to make people stop being lazy and what activities find for those whose work is not needed in economy. And I can assure you that Europe would do fine even with 1/4 of current population.


Bank downgrade hits Greece as strike looms...It amazes me how much malaise, ignorance and denial folks are under as they thought the social saftey system was going to protect them...

ATHENS (AFP) – A credit downgrade for Greece's top banks raised the pressure on Athens on Tuesday ahead of a general strike as the government struggled to end a debt crisis that has shaken the eurozone.

Ratings agency Fitch said the measures needed to rectify Greek public finances "will have a significant effect on the real economy, affecting loan demand and putting additional pressure on asset quality."

Fitch said it was therefore downgrading National Bank of Greece (NBG), Alpha Bank (Alpha), Efg Eurobank Ergasias (Eurobank) and Piraeus Bank to a lower investment status and warned that their outlook was negative.

The fresh blow for the Greek economy came as a delegation from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF arrived in Athens for a three-day visit to assess its bid to tame rampant debt.

Greece's high debt and a collapse in confidence on financial markets over its ability to finance itself have put government bonds under pressure, weakened the euro and pushed the eurozone into crisis.

Greece accuses EU over budget scrutiny

Under acute pressure from its 15 eurozone partners, the Greek government has pledged to slash its deficit this year, agreeing to painful public spending cuts that sparked Wednesday's union strike call.

IMF stresses deficit reduction in exit strategies

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard warned in an interview that European countries like Greece face an "extremely painful" period of budget tightening that could last up to 20 years and will require "sacrifices."

The EU has pledged support for Greece but has also ordered strict monitoring for its deficit-cutting program, sending the three-party team on the first of a string of visits to make sure Athens is on the right track.

"It is a purely technical visit, to examine progress on the Greek plan and provide any help necessary," said a ministry official, who requested anonymity.

The official said the team may meet with Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou at the end of the visit, which wraps up on Thursday.

Athens has ruled out resorting to a "bailout" from the EU or the IMF.

But a report in Germany's Der Spiegel magazine citing German finance ministry sources, on Saturday said the eurozone could aid Greece to the tune of "between 20 billion and 25 billion euros" (27 billion and 34 billion dollars).

A ministry spokesman dismissed the report as "speculation."

Greek anger at German reporting of finance woes

Greece's air, rail and maritime transport are expected to grind to a halt Wednesday as thousands of public and private sector workers down tools from midnight Tuesday (2300 GMT) in anger at the prospect of cuts to benefits.

Called by the powerful GSEE workers' confederation and backed by the civil servant union, the strike is set to shut down schools, government offices and courtrooms, with disruption to banks, hospitals and state-owned companies.

Greece is also facing a news blackout after the strike received backing from the national journalists' union, which penalises members for breaking ranks.

Athens metro and bus lines will run a skeleton service to allow strikers to get to the street demonstrations planned in the city centre.

Despite the scale of the strike, polls suggest that more than six out of 10 Greeks support the government's austerity plans, and three-quarters say social conflicts should be put on hold until the financial crisis is settled.

Tuesday's finance talks kicked off with the head of a finance ministry experts' council, Georges Zanias, with further meetings scheduled Wednesday and Thursday with the Greek Central Bank and labour ministry, the ministry said.

Europe faces 'painful' budget tightening: IMF

Greek politicians meanwhile voiced anger at German media reports on their economy, with Athens mayor Nikitas Kaklamanis branding as "shameful" a front cover of German magazine Focus showing a statue of Venus giving the finger.

"You still owe us 70 billion (euros, 95 billion dollars) for the ruins that you left us with," Kaklamanis said in an open letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, referring to compensation for Nazi attacks in World War II.


Does anyone seriously think this thing will end with Greece? Talk of bailing-out Greece is fine, because in theory, they could. But what about Spain? They can not begin to afford to bail out Spain. Does anyone serously think that Spain will make any move to cut its budget deficit while facing 18% unemployment? Spain, not Greece is the worry. It they start having debt service problems, no one will be able to even pretend they can do anything. Then you will see the Euro free-fall.

Anyway, the Euro needs to be depreciated. It was launched at par with the dollar and should never be more than 20% higher. Just look at the Big Mac index to see what this Euro is doing to prices in Europe.


Part Zwei

"The dangers of pricing oneself out of a job have nowhere been more apparent than they are today," said Howard Wheeldon, a senior strategist at inter-dealer broker BGC Partners in London.

"The solution is ... for companies to be even more efficient and that of necessity means employing fewer staff," said Wheeldon. That's what managers at British Airways and Lufthansa are facing, he said.

Thousands of Lufthansa pilots resumed work Tuesday after suspending a strike over concerns that cheaper crews from the German carrier's smaller airlines in other countries could replace them one day. Big European carriers have been pummeled in recent years by high jet-fuel prices, competition from low-cost rivals and falling demand for first-and business-class tickets — where profit margins are higher.

"Cost pressure has always governed airlines," said Per-Ola Hellgren, an analyst at Germany's Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg. "The pressure is much greater than in the past. The conditions were never really great and now they're worse than ever."

While airline workers face market pressures, the air traffic controllers are subject to a government push for efficiencies at a time of high state deficits and lackluster economic conditions.
Eric Heraud, a spokesman for the French state-run civil aviation agency DGAC, suggested the controllers are acting out of fear.
"This strike is a little bit disproportionate," because the French government is committed to keeping workplace protections, he said. Heraud said labor unions representing controllers in the five partner nations — Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland — all supported the integration plan.

The malaise about pending government cutbacks and efficiency-seeking extends beyond the air travel sector. In Spain, labor unions have called protest rallies for Tuesday evening in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and other cities to protest a government plan to raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 age as part of an austerity package.

Greek unions are calling a wide-ranging strike for Wednesday to protest austerity measures aimed at getting the country out of a government debt crisis. The action is expected to ground flights, reduce medical service and close schools and government offices, while some private sector unions will also stay off work. Transportation labor unions in the Czech Republic decided Tuesday to hold a strike in Prague next Monday to protest a new value-added tax on their workers' benefits.


Transport strikes lay bare Europe's malaise

PARIS – With economic recovery barely there and talk of austerity spreading, many European workers are pushing back. French air traffic controllers walked off the job Tuesday just as Lufthansa pilots ended a strike and British Airways cabin crews voted to launch one of their own. Greek unions prepared to shut down much of their country Wednesday with wide-ranging strikes.

These workers — like those who blockaded the Athens stock market or demonstrators angry at proposed delayed retirements in Spain — fear for their hard-earned comforts as European governments and companies tighten belts to stay solvent. The walkouts are the latest signs of a broader unease about jobs and benefits, and what the future holds for a continent struggling to stay competitive on a global scale.

The anxiety cuts across both private and public sectors, economist say. Governments that took on higher debts to get through the financial crisis or didn't prepare adequately for a downturn now are looking to cut costs.

"Stimulus programs have largely driven the economic rebound over the last 20 months," said macroeconomist Frederic Bonnevay in Paris. "Now as this public support stabilizes and is progressively removed, the outlook suddenly appears grim." As for the private sector, industries like the air transport sector tried to spread out cost-cuts to ease the harmful effects of the downturn, but now must carry out the reforms, economists said.

"The crisis is playing a role in all this, because it's hit sectors in which investment isn't resuming — and that puts pressure on jobs," said Jean-Francois Jamet, an economist with the Fondation Robert Schuman in Paris. "The air sector is going through a general restructuring," he added. "Companies must face the consequences of the crisis, and are paying for bad financial results that they have had since 2008."

Looming elections in France and Britain over the next few months have also given labor groups the chance to wrest concessions from politicians seeking re-election, Jamet said. Air traffic controllers walked off the job across France as a four-day strike began on Tuesday, testing the patience of would-be travelers and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Unions called the walkout to protest plans to integrate European air traffic control across six countries — which workers fear will lead to losses of jobs and civil servant benefits.

Workers and unions say they are digging in to protect the European social safety net from fraying and to keep austerity measures from sapping consumer demand and thus the economy. With unemployment in the 16-country euro zone at 10 percent, and Spain the top laggard with unemployment at 19 percent — concerns about job security are paramount.


Yes, the bond crisis will be the next crisis phase. Good point. Returning to the point of speculation, these traders make value based decisions on these social and macro economic trends and not just market volitility trends. They are not stealing your money nor stealing the money of China or Germeny. They are doing what they have been doing for years, performing as hedge funds. Performing trades or taking activist roles. They just do it with more intelligence, savy and moxy than your average "stock picker".


@Make Love

Your objection is justified. But I do not think that the 'German model' would work in New Zealand, Australia or even in the US or Canada. They are countries with still vast available space while Germany and her European neighbors are too densely populated “for their own good”. Thus, a decline in population is healthy for the quality of life for the rest. The decline can easily be balanced – if needed - by opening the door a little wider to more immigration. Still there are 10fold more people wanting to immigrate to Germany or Holland than the other way around. The “Safe Third Countries Policy” is a highly effective instrument to control unwanted immigration. Wanted immigration can thus easily be boosted if really needed, also from Eastern Europe.

The countries you suggested that should "adopt the German model" don't need to do so. Why should they pursue the difficult "German Way" anyway? Their citizens live mainly "off the land", either by farming it or by mining, while Germans or e.g. Dutch and Belgians do not have this "freedom" of choice, unless they emigrate to Namibia, New Zealand or Australia, what some (not many) do for exactly this reason: Seeking the abundance of space and the freedom which comes with it … rarely for ‘economic reasons. There is an interesting book on the market addressing the facts and backgrounds of this issue: “To Go or Not to Go: Emigration from Germany” published 2007 online by German Socio-Economic Panel and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

As this publication points out, people in these ‘crowded’ European countries need much more intelligence and energy to "survive on a high level of living” (not the ones on welfare of course) than people in countries where Germans, Dutch etc emigrate to. Again: The reason for people to leave Germany or Holland etc. is the very same reason why people in the US leave the crowded East Coast cities or California for Colorado, Wyoming or Idaho (or even for Canada or Australia). North Europeans are individualists. This emigration is less an “economic flight” than the search for ‘freedom of space’ and adventurism. It is thus a healthy emigration, not triggered by desperation or poverty.

I actually believe that no country can copy the specific success-stories of others. If a country feels (or its people for this matter) comfortable with their way of doing things, then they are on the right track, as long as they don't live of others or ask other to support their lifestyle. This is true for people asking for aid from their society, as you rightly mention, as also for whole countries asking others for ‘aid’. Germany, France, Holland, Austria or Belgium don’t have to ask anyone to ‘aid’ them, instead they aid others. As long as this is so they must do ‘something’ right.

We’ll talk again if they start ‘begging’ others for help or publish bonds that have problems to find buyers on the markets, as i.e. US bonds or British IOUs in the moment.



Thanks for your point of view. France's fertility rate jumped in 1930 & 1950's was because all of Europe enjoyed growth periods at this time. I don't see any trends pointing to economic recovery in the near future therefore these trends will not rise. Standard replacement for population equilibrium requires that every couple produce two children and that each child does the same when they grow up. However this model is too simple and needs to consider that:

(1) one or both children may die before adulthood
(2) one or both children may not marry or live in a relationship, or
(3) they may have only one child or none at all.

Hence the fertility rate to sustain a culture has to be greater than 2, and research shows it to be 2.11.
So it is stated that:
(1) a culture can’t survive over generations if the fertility rate drops to below 2.11
(2) history tells us that even at a fertility rate of 1.9, no previous culture has survived
(3) at a rate of 1.3, it is impossible to recover.

Germany has a 1.3 rate and has been "declining" and has not risen higher than this 1.3 even with wealthy government initiatives such as elterngeld and kindergeld. However, France is enjoying a somewhat better rate.

Old Europe is dying...

The averaged fertility rate over some 31 countries of Europe is just 1.38, a figure which suggests that not only is the culture dying, it is NOT, I repeat NOT recoverable.

The EU have made a decision to address the declining numbers with immigration from the third world areas of North Africa and the Middle East, where the people have a culture and values which DON’T MIX with Old Europe.

So as of 2008, the fertility rates are claimed as:

Europe today stands at around 52 million and that figure is expected to double to 104 million within two decades, so allowing natural fertility rates to work, Europe will become an Islamic nation.
Since 1990, about 90% of all immigration has been Muslim.

It is estimated that Germany will be Islamic by 2015 as current trends are indeed continuing.

The Netherlands will be a 50% muslim country within 15 years, and Belgium by 2025. Even Russia will be 50% Muslim around 2050.

I am not judging Germany by an American view therefore the base test is neutral. I am basing it on shared, open, practical, qualitative and quantitative testing.

I make these comparisons because looking at Greece, portugal, and Spain the "High" uality of living in Germany is not the same as the one in the rest of the EU. Therefore, Germans must gve up their "High quality of living" if they want to share some of the burden with their other Eurozone members. Don't worry, these "deep pockets" of taxpayers money will be shared by the non-performing members of the Eurozone.

Your points as germany has been "survivors" and they can "withstand" any pressure but as you stated, they are still contending with huge problems (worker migration, higher crime) in the east and now this? The best infrastructure (roads, bridges) are in East Germany but nobody is using them? The problems in the east (former DDR) will come to the west. Higher unemployment, even lower birth rates, lack of business investment, even higher sozial spending, poor schools, higher brain drain. This is fact. Not my words but are words from der speigel, deustche welle, etc. German view, not American. Last i checked, these are German media perspectives? ne?:

A German perspective:,,3807356,00.html,1518,373639,00.html

A Western perspective:

Was passiert?


Speculators are not setaling money but rather making decisions. In today, approximately 1% of ALL European companies are owned by hedge funds. This will increase over time as their is more share dilution. There are more large and middle German comapanies (AG, GmbH) moving out of German in 2010 because of tax law changes coming they are not stupid. However, there are more smaller companies being formed in Germany. The 2010 program was delayed but yes, as every citizen knows, there will be another mandtaed, say a 2014 slogan.

When speculators make these decisions they make them on solid economic principals. Whether they invest in a CDS contract or shorting currency, these guys are nt "stealing" money. Please understand how they work before making ridiculous statments. Thats why hedge funds dont work in Germany because they are "locusts" as one German politican called them. PE is even scared to work within Germany borders because of government interference. Major and yes, higher taxes are coming to Germany. Eventhough your "trusted" German Chancellor "promised" lower taxes to vote her in, you will be fooled. Dont be fooled again. Jurgen Ruttgers is now gone because he took bribes. Who will lead? Just like the Greek bailout and then the Spain one...Fundementals doent work because of the difficult currency prospects, increased public spending (Hartz IV, etc), fleeing of German companies and citizens, poor prospects for exports, lack of consumerism and the miserable demographics supporting these trends.

Los gehts!


@Make Love Not War:

I agree with half of your points which are well taken so please receive these comments. The German & Chinese models don't work as we are seeing today. Notwithstanding, neother does the Angl US/UK models. The crisis hurts everyone and we are seeing German sentiment take a dive in todays markets. Along with US Consumer sentiments, UK, etc...

The German economy spends way too much on social welfare, so to your pint, I agree. There are handouts at every level and Mr. Westerwelle's comments are not received to kindly for the Hartz IV
folks, but for the rest of the workers who pay too much taxes to see people work less and be compensated kindly. I saw this everaywhere on every level in German culture. The Hartz IV dole needs to be turned down tremendously.

No consumer or domestic spending n Germany. You saw in the begining of the crisis in 2008, the first major companies to go bankrupt was Arcandor (e.g. Karstadt). Thats because Germans dont spend too much and the recovery is loosing track partly because of the lack of consumer spending. I am not saying they should get 7 credit cards and max them all out but, they dont spend. Service oriented economies are winning now because German companies are leaving Germany for the favorable FX rate and growth rates "outside" of Germany. UK will be better of for not joining the Euro and not being a reliant export only model which is hurting continental European economies.

As for your points regarding reinvestment. Education needs reform. You are seeing this with the Hamburg school kids who want to learn and not be held down. In Germany, the age 9 test needs change. The genetic makeup is not fully develped at this age and this test cant accurately predict what you are going to do for the rest of your life. In addition, the tract or process which you are put upon needs to be shorter. The running joke there, is that Germans graduate college at 25 or later, work a few years, collect a pension and thn move to Mallorca. With current demographics facing irreversible levels, there needs to be a German worker entering the workforce at a much earlier age.

As for technolgy reinvestment, that is something in the psyche of German laws which will never change. It goes back to the days when very high walls were built around schools and churches. Hence, any new or "different" ideas were not welcomes into society. Look at the rate of scientists, engineers and other techincal professionals who are "leaving" Germany at an alarming pace. The "idea' of change scares and spooks the older, higher, decision making elite that are the German decision makers. Thats why foreign techonology companies are moving out of germany as well.

As for Germany trying to change Austrailia and New Zealand, could you stop it! Look at what happened to the Eurozone because of political and economic will was imposed onto countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc. If they did a poll of who could technically be accepted into the EU right now in Feb, 2010, only Luxembourg, Norway
and Romania would be accepted. NONE of the current members due to its debt levels and public spending.

Unions...Evryone is unionized in Germany hence everyone trikes for higher wages. Even in current times. Teachers, hospital workers, auto workers, pilots, bankers, train operators, etc...Everyone in the world is hurting now and German Union workers are STILL demanding higher wage increases. Thats a written law which German workers must receive successive wage increases. However, this is the final countdown. This year will be the reality to these workers to understand its a different world we live in 2010. Other countries have made these changes in 2007, 2008 but not much, if any restructuring has occured in Germany...YET! GS and other advisory companies are currenctly advising Berlin on what to do and when. That when will be in 3Q. Slow to change and slow to catch on...

Stop complimenting yourselves that the German model works. Id does not. Look at the brain drain, Hartz IV receipients, East German towns which are failing because of reunification, export only, problem banks, constan currency problems, lack of integration, no more immigrants, demographics of older people and a 1.3 fertility rate
which will end the german dream in less than 25 years. What will be done for each of these points which not only i see, but the German Govt? Malaise, denial, malaise, denial....

Talk about change has come and gone. Its way too late....



knowing this country, Germany, quite well, I agree a hundred percent w/ your statement. There is 'no secret' to Germany's overall success, but a general prudence, practical intelligence and her famous social-economic structure; meaning a fair (socially just) but still ‘free market’ economy based on ethics and discipline.

Rightly you pointed out that it's not the 'big brand names' (which also exist) that are Germany's economic backbone but the thousands of privately owned (gmbh/limited) midsize companies that are not listed on stock markets (thus not prone to 'speculation attacks'); and which are singly world leaders in many specialized fields, often with no or little competition; especially in fields like optics, printing technology, robotics, machine tools and other machine building and capital goods sectors.

The problem is that this is not achievable 'over night', not even in a few decades; it rather has to become a part of a nation’s "economic character" – as e.g. “mercantilism” is an English ‘economic character’. Germany’s national or 'economic character’ was formed by and through her history, in a positive and negative sense, as this true for most nations and societies.

I’ve met an Icelandic engineer yesterday at Atlanta airport who heads an engineering company in K.C. and who got his degrees in Germany. While waiting over a beer for our connecting flights we were discussing exactly these issues. I would consider him an ‘insider’ of Germany’s society. In his opinion it is not easy to ‘copy’ the ‘German model’ unless a country has a similar ‘cultural background’, as e.g. some European societies do.

This man I’ve met in Atlanta saw a ‘danger’ in a light-headed immigration policy to those societies, if the immigrants don’t adopt the prudency and ‘practical intelligence’ of their hosts, especially he mentioned the large numbers of immigrants from Turkey and countries with a similar make-up (as e.g. Greece or Bulgaria).

The basic idea of his critical "immigration analysis" might to be expanded to societies the Germans and their neighbors ‘go to bed with’ in a ‘club’ as the Eurozone or even, to a lesser extent, in the whole EU. Such restrictive policies might not be congruent with the financial-service-orientated global interests of Britain, since a general multi-cultural approach is part of her economy’s make-up.

Britain’s economic model needs badly the 'good will' of Arab, Middle Eastern and other international investors; hence the City's kowtow to Shariah-compliant investment models, the acceptance of "Shariah law" on her own soil and her push for an endless EU-expansion in order to create an as big as possible EU-backed “safe haven” for the demands of her international speculator clientele.

These British policies are steadily contradicting the national interests of her partners on the continent. Thus, it might be better for many EU countries if Britain would cancel her EU membership (which is easily possible under the Lisbon Treaty) after the Tories have formed the next U.K. government.

Translated into the case of Greece: If Greece can’t be forced to leave the EMU, then the prudent eurozone societies should not send one single Euro-cent to unaccountable Greece . . . unless a separate treaty allows them to sent their law enforcement officers and judges too, who are entitled to issue arrest warrants and put Greece’s criminal political caste there behind bars outside of Greece.



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