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Killer heatwave a sign of blistering times to come

August 16, 2003

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Many were unprepared for Europe's ferocious summer, writes Herald Correspondent Peter Fray in London.

Europe's worst heatwave in decades has left a trail of death, destruction and dehydration in its wake, raising urgent questions about the impact of global warming and how prepared even developed countries are to deal with extreme heat.

Climate experts say the heatwave, which eased yesterday after setting record highs in Britain, France, Germany and Italy, is one of the clearest indications that the planet is not only warming but probably at a far faster rate than previously thought.

The French Government has declared a state of emergency in Paris after health officials revealed that up to 3000 people had died in the country's three-week heatwave.

The Health Minister, Jean-Francois Mattei, has declared the deaths caused by the heatwave a "genuine epidemic" and ordered the recall of hundreds of holidaying hospital staff to cope with the flood of mostly elderly casualties.

In Britain, four of the five hottest years since daily recordkeeping started more than 300 years ago have come in the past 10 years, and climatologists believe 2003 may surpass 1998 as the hottest year. Worldwide, nine of the warmest years on record have happened in the 1990s and 2000s.

Unless humans change the way they use the planet and adapt to high-temperature living, experts fear that the fatalities, water shortages, power cuts and devastating forest fires experienced across Europe may well be the shape of things to come.

United Nations-sanctioned predictions are for an average 1.5- to 5.8-degree increase in global temperatures this century because of greenhouse emissions, with most climatologists erring on the low side. But with recent events, the higher figure looks closer to the mark.

Asher Minns, of Britain's Tyndall climate research centre, one of Europe's leading weather institutions, described the heatwave as a glimpse into the future for Europe and the rest of the world. "This is a bit of a wake-up call. It's what scientists predict is going to happen. We can't say that any one climatic event is down to global warming, but this possibly is an insight into the future."

He said the heatwave highlighted the need for people to reduce energy usage, reduce the number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and consider adapting homes and offices to cope with hotter summers and milder winters.

In the short-term, the advent of warmer summers may force a rethink of established social and cultural practices and force everyone to pay closer and more serious attention to forecasts.

The usual August exodus to the beach and country left Parisian hospitals woefully short-staffed to deal with an upsurge in heat-related medical conditions.

The Socialist opposition and the tabloid press have turned on the Government of the Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, especially Mr Mattei, for failing to heed warnings and prepare for the heatwave.

A Socialist Party spokesman, Julien Dray, said: "The ministers have all left dog tired to relax on their holidays and they didn't see this coming, even though the weather bureau had warned that a heatwave was on the way."

The daily Le Parisien noted that Mr Dray himself was on holiday.

A long-term Paris resident, Australian academic David Camroux, said the heatwave had shown how poorly designed Parisian flats were to deal with hot weather.

"The buildings are designed to keep in the heat. There's been no breeze. It's almost unbearable."


