
Subject: Re: Market Timing : 10/18/00 Date: 10/19/2000 9:20 PM
Recommendations: 4
<<Decisions to buy and sell are made and Elliot Wave Theory was developed in an effort to understand that human activity.>>

And a failed effort.

What do you want, to just accept every system you see as valid just because someone wrote a book about it or someone else says it works?

<<The suggestion that the work done is not valid is just ludicrous.>>

No offense intended but this itself is a ludicrous statement.

If I tell you my dog can predict the market by taking a whiz on his favorite stocks, would it be ludicrous of you to say such a system is not valid?

Elliott Wave is completely worthless. That is my opinion. The opinion is based on my observations of Elliott Wave in practice.

Why are you so insistent I somehow validate Elliott Wave for you?

I think it is utter crap.

Assaye thinks otherwise.

Perhaps you think otherwise.

That's fine with me. But I'm not going to change my opinion just because you want me to. Not unless you provide evidence that would cause me to change it.

<<A price-chart which shows declining volume of stock traded and prices closing daily at the low while the price is at a high level must tell everyone that buying interest is being overtaken by selling interest. How hard can it be to make a prediction at that point and be right more often than wrong?>>

A blackjack player counts cards to calculate the odds. He determines whether the remaining cards in the shoe are more or less favorable to the player or the dealer. Based on these odds, he then adjusts his bet. He does not predict what the next hand will be - he has no way to know what the next hand will be. He only knows how to calculate the odds.

In my opinion, technical analysis is very similar though less precise than card counting.

I also believe that as long as people are trapped in the futile quest to "predict the market" they will never truly understand how to use technical analysis or how to trade stocks.

<<The ability to predict lies at the core of human development. Get with the program.>>

You can't predict the market. Get with the program. :)

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