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URL: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/s248788.htm

Broadcast: 19/2/2001
What can the Coalition do?
So what does the Coalition do? What can the Prime Minister or anyone else do to reverse the effects of economic reform? Well, to look at that we've invited two conservatives from very different points of view to talk. Greg Barns is the CEO of the Gold Council, a member of the Liberal Party and the former chief of staff to Finance Minister John Fahey. Deanne Kelly is the National Party member for Dawson in Queensland. Since the defeat of the Court government in Western Australia she's made it clear the Federal Government must do more for people in the bush and she suggested the Nationals should again consider preference swaps with One Nation.

Compere: Tony Jones
Reporter: Tony Jones

TONY JONES: Deanne Kelly, the million dollar question if you like today is was the Queensland election decided on State issues or was there a genuine message being sent to the Federal Government?

DEANNE KELLY, QLD NATIONAL PARTY: We had a post-mortem in Dawson today, I guess a wake, you could call it.

The message from my party people on the ground was that it was overwhelmingly the conduct of the State election.

That's not to say that Federal issues weren't there.

They were like a Mack truck on the highway behind your ute.

They didn't run you over but everyone was aware they were there.

TONY JONES: Let's talk about that Mack truck behind the ute.

What are those Federal issues that people are mostly worried about?

DEANNE KELLY: Well, the ones that were raised with me today were certainly deregulation, particularly the dairy industry.

TONY JONES: When you say deregulation do you mean on a broader level than that?

Banks, Telstra and so on?

DEANNE KELLY: Yes, very much.

Deregulation -- the fact that the little fellow is thrown into the ring with the 100lb ape.

Whether that's big business, whether it's world parity pricing for commodities, but they feel they need a referee and I have to agree with them.

You can't take a pounding in the ring all the time without a referee.

In many cases that means some regulatory framework.

Whether it's statutory marketing authority, single desk selling -- those need to be retained.

TONY JONES: Can you realistically, though, wind back any of these issues, or are we so far down the path of globalisation that you just can't go back now?

DEANNE KELLY: Certainly not.

The GATT agreement which is the umbrella agreement to all of these things allows a great deal more latitude in terms of statutory marketing authorities, setting some, I guess, even -- there's even the opportunity to set tariffs to provide industry assistance to farmers as we did with the sugar assistance package.

There are things you can't do but there's a lot things you can do.

TONY JONES: Can we be very specific?

Could you reregulate the dairy industry?

DEANNE KELLY: There would be -- as far as I'm aware, there would be nothing in the WTO that would stop you doing that.

Probably it's the dairy farmers in Victoria that wouldn't agree to it.

The dairy industry is an absolute tragedy forced on the Federal Government by the Victorian dairy farmers and the two big cooperatives down there.

It hasn't benefited anybody.

Consumers to a minimal extent.

Farmers devastated and rural communities shattered.

TONY JONES: Greg Barns, would there be any unwinding or could there be any unwinding of those reforms, especially deregulation, privatisation?

GREG BARNS, CEO GOLD COUNCIL: I think the real issue is not so much winding back the clock or winding back reform.

The real issue is making sure the gap between those in regional Australia and those in the cities is not widened.

The corporate sector has some responsibility there, as has governments.

Perhaps on both sides there have been failings over the past few years.

TONY JONES: Can you reregulate the dairy industry, for example?

GREG BARNS: I don't know a lot about the dairy industry.

Except to say this: reregulation rarely works.

We have to look at the end of the day the dairy industry is there to serve consumers.

We would need to have a look at what's happened to milk prices.

In may parts of Australia they've dropped.

The important issue here is what governments and the corporate sector can do in regional Australia to ensure that the adjustment that has been made as a result of globilisation will continue to be made is made better for those people.

TONY JONES: Mr Samuel was alluding to that in our background piece.

Has enough been done?

Have the governments left these reforms to happen and left people to somehow deal with them on their own?

GREG BARNS: I think governments have tried of various persuasions, both Federal and State.

In the private sector, there have been some industries that have done extremely well.

In the resources sector there's been a great effort made to include communities in consultation particularly on mine closures, for example.

But, if you take the banks, their strategy of simply closing banks down and walking out of towns has caused a great deal of anger.

They need to do a lot better.

In fact, you could argue that the banks are heading down the path of community service obligations, if they don't start to lift their game in the bush.

TONY JONES: Deanne Kelly, what are your constituents at a grassroots level in the National Party calling for in terms of winding back or changing the things that they're angry about?

DEANNE KELLY: Well, the big concerns for them at present would be certainly deregulation.

They're very concerned about any move to deregulate, and recently Graeme Samuels, who called for the further deregulation of the sugar industry.

Those sort of things make people very, very uneasy.

They are concerned about further services in rural and regional Australia, commodity prices -- not so much subsidies for farmers but some support during significant downturns because many of their competitors overseas are highly subsidised.

They feel that, when the going gets tough, they get left.

They're very much issues for my constituency.

TONY JONES: With these messages coming from rural and regional Australia, can you see that there will be inevitably a strain on the Coalition as we get closer to the election?

GREG BARNS: I think we should have a look at the weekend.

Deanne Kelly and others have said, "Let's have a look at preference deals with One Nation."

What that strategy resulted in at the weekend was three seats, two -- possibly three seats going to One Nation as a result of National Party preferences and then the wiping out of the Liberal Party in south-east Queensland with an 11.6 per cent gain to Labor.

If anyone's going to tear up the Coalition, it will simply be those who want to dance with One Nation.

What that will cause is both a fracturing within the Liberal Party itself but, more importantly, it will mean -- as we saw on the weekend -- the Coalition vote gets increasingly splintered.

TONY JONES: Do you think there will be pressures on Liberal MPs to go to the same route as some of the National Party MPs?

Have you seen evidence of it?

There must be the temptation there.

There is great concern amongst Liberals in NSW, I got an email today from 60 Liberals expressing concern that some members might do that if you look at the marginal seats in the next election they are in rural Australia, Eden Monaro and even a seat like Indi.

In those seats there must be a temptation to do deals with One Nation.

I would hope those Liberal members or Liberal candidates wouldn't do it.

But the problem is, if they do do it, you're going to see a fissure emerging in the party, somewhat akin to what we saw in the British Labour Party in the 1970s when it moved sharply to left, or even the Labor Party in Australia, which of course had the DLP monkey on its back for several years.

TONY JONES: Deanne Kelly, you've called for at least if you like a free vote within the National Party on this issue of preferences.

If it spread through the Coalition, it would have serious dangers for both parties, would it not?

DEANNE KELLY: While those matters are one for the Liberal Party.

Let me tell you the experience we just had on the weekend in the National Party in Queensland.

It's a petty that your other guest didn't check his facts before he spoke.

In fact in north Queensland looking at the results right across our seats in the north, there was overwhelmingly a 60 per cent vote for conservative parties.

The reason we didn't win those seats was because there was a high exhaustion factor.

The Beattie team, very cleverly, I think, and cynically put on all the polling booths "just vote one".

People who went in wanting to vote for the numerous conservative parties -- One Nation, City-Country Alliance, National Party and conservative Independents -- exhausted their vote.

In other words their vote died in the dust.

In some seats that was 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 40 per cent.

Let me say, when you look at those seats again, had those preferences held true and not exhausted, we would now have many National Party members right throughout the north.

Certainly in my electorate.

Three out of the four State seats would have been held by the National Party instead of Labor.

What happened when you don't preference and share sensibly votes between the conservative parties is that you elect a Labor government.

TONY JONES: Greg Barns, that logic is going to be tempting to a lot of Liberal Party MPs who are in marginal seats, isn't it?

Do you know that any of them are considering preferences?

GREG BARNS: I don't know that any of them are considering preferences at this point Just to pick up one of Deanne Kelly's points.

The bottom line is, that if you preference One Nation you cause great strain on the Coalition.

And what we saw on the weekend was a revulsion against that, with Liberal voters in droves on the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast, deserting the Liberal Party and going to Labor.

Now if that's the result that Deanne Kelly think is a good result on the weekend, then that's appalling.

and that's the sort of strain we are seeing on the Coalition.

TONY JONES: Finally a response from you, Deanne Kelly, on that.

A big strain on the Coalition is what's predicted there?

DEANNE KELLY: I think all of this hysteria about strains on the Coalition, what about handing the next Federal election to the Labor Party?

That's what I'm not about.

I don't want to hand the next Federal election to the Labor Party.

See Kim Beazley as PM.

We've been doing a very good job.

Generally, there's some issues on the sidelines that need to be addressed and some grievances.

But we've been a good government and, if we don't sensibly cooperate with conservative parties on preferences, we will surf Labor in to the next election.

I'm not about that.

I'm sorry, I think the cappuccino seat in the cities need to decide whether they want a Labor Party as government or an achieving Coalition.

TONY JONES: Deanne Kelly, Greg Barns, thanks to both of you for joining us tonight.

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