Edition: U.S. / Global

Shiite Vote Plan Would Exclude 'Sunni Triangle'

Published: February 18, 2004

Shiite leaders are pushing a new plan for the transfer of power in Iraq that calls for partial elections, with balloting in the relatively secure Shiite and Kurdish areas but not in the more turbulent ''Sunni triangle.''

The proposal, which has grown out of an emerging alliance between Kurdish and Shiite political parties, is part of the intensifying scramble for power among politicians before the United Nations announcement, expected this week, on whether election are feasible in Iraq.

But partial elections, American officials said, would further alienate the Sunnis, who are already generating most of the violence against the Americans and their Iraqi allies.

''Allowing citizens from some regions to vote and disenfranchising others certainly does not inspire credibility and legitimacy,'' a senior American official in Baghdad said.

Leaders of Iraq's Shiites, the country's largest single group, said their plan is the only feasible way to have any kind of elections while still allowing American administrators to transfer authority to the Iraqi people by June 30, the date set in an American-Iraqi agreement last November.

''Partial elections is one of the possibilities on the table,'' said Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a Shiite political leader and a member of the Iraqi Governing Council. ''There are places secure enough where we can hold elections right now. Those places happen to be in the north and in the south.''

Kurdish leaders would not comment specifically on the plan, but they did emphasize a new ''strategic relationship'' with Shiite clerics in their discussions.

Barham Salih, prime minister of the Partiotic Union of Kurdistan, a leading Kurdish party, said it was important to work with the Shiite leadership because ''these two major communities in Iraq should share an interest in fundamental change in the politics of Iraq.''

He added, ''Both have been excluded from power for almost 83 years of the Iraqi state.''

On Sunday, Jalal Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union and a member of the Governing Council, traveled to the holy Shiite city of Najaf, where he met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites. After a two-and-a-half-hour meeting, Mr. Talabani said, ''We have big hope in our Shia brothers.''

The partial election plan calls for representatives in the predominantly Sunni areas to be chosen in tightly guarded caucuses, an idea vehemently opposed by members of the country's Sunni minority, who say it is illegitimate and would further divide Iraq's people.

Sunnis represent about 20 percent of Iraq's population, but they were a ruling minority for much of its modern history until Saddam Hussein was unseated.

''Maybe this is their dream,'' said Adnan Pachachi, a Governing Council member and a Sunni. ''But it doesn't make any sense, only the north and the south voting. If the center of Iraq is not involved, how could Iraq be considered a sovereign power?''

He also said the Governing Council had ''discarded'' American plans for a caucus-style selection process for a transitional government. Instead, Council members want to hold on to power though the transition period but double the number of seats on the Council from 25 to 50 to make it more representative.

Both those developments are complicating American intentions for the handover of power. American administrators in Iraq say direct elections are not feasible before the June 30 deadline but they support elections sometime in 2005. American officials were hoping to organize caucuses to select a transitional government that would have more legitimacy than the Governing Council, whose members were hand-picked by American officials.

In a news conference this week, L. Paul Bremer III, the chief American administrator here, insisted that the central elements of the November agreement could be carried out -- that an Iraqi national assembly could be chosen in nationwide caucuses and that the Americans could hand over power by June 30.

But while all sides are sticking to the June 30 deadline, the clamor for direct elections is only growing louder. A United Nations team was in Iraq last week assessing when and how elections could be held. On Tuesday, Secretary General Kofi Annan said he hoped to make his recommendation on Iraq before departing for a trip to Japan on Friday.

The proposal being discussed by Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish leaders is a sign of the enormousness of the task they are facing in choosing a representative government while a guerrilla war is raging over large swaths of the country.

Ayatollah Muhammad al-Yaqobi, a cleric and part of the inner circle of Shiite leadership, called the partial election plan, ''the lesser of two evils.''

''There is no perfect solution,'' he said in an interview in Najaf. ''But we have 10 stable provinces south of Baghdad where it's possible to have elections right now, and the Kurdistan areas have had their own government for 12 years. As for the Sunni areas, they can do what suits them best.''

Another Shiite official, Ali Atishan, the deputy mayor of Najaf, said the Sunni areas could select leaders through a caucus system. ''They can appoint some people now and have elections later,'' he said.

Mr. Rubaie said the partial election plan should not be considered anti-Sunni. ''There may be some Sunni areas that are ready for elections,'' he said. ''If Falluja wants to hold elections, it's up to them.''

Falluja, a small city in the Sunni triangle, has been one of the most violent areas of Iraq since the insurgency began. However, any plan to divide the country into stable and unstable zones would be difficult because many areas, like Baghdad, are a mix.

Mr. Salih said he favored elections soon but ''adequate preparations must be carried out to ensure genuine democratic elections.''

He added, ''We have discussed, however, elections in the Kurdistan region for our Kurdistan National Assembly.''

While Shiite clerics have been pushing for early elections, Kurdish leaders have been pushing to keep the autonomy their region has enjoyed since 1991.

But until now, each of the three main groups in Iraq -- Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds -- had been pursuing its own agenda. The Shiites and Kurds make up 75 to 80 percent of the population, and even if the partial election plan never materializes, the prospect of an alliance between the two groups is terrifying to many Sunnis.

After the meeting on Sunday in Najaf, Abdul Aziz al-Hakima, a confidant of Ayatollah Sistani, celebrated the new relationship between the Kurds and Shiites.

''This strong relationship between us and Kurds is to serve all Iraq,'' he said.

Photos: The minority Sunnis oppose the Shiites' election plan, with Adnan Pachachi, right, a member of the Iraqi Governing Council and a Sunni, arguing: ''Maybe this is their dream. But it doesn't make any sense.'' (Photo by Reuters); Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a Shiite political leader, right above, said of a new plan for partial elections in Iraq, ''There are places secure enough where we can hold elections right now.'' Kurdish leaders emphasize a ''strategic relationship'' with the Shiites. ''We have big hope in our Shia brothers.'' said Jalal Talabani, head of a leading Kurdish party, center in left photo. (Photo by Agence France-Presse--Getty Images); (Photo by Lynsey Addario/Corbis, for The New York Times)(pg. A6)