Campbell Newman campaigning in Ashgrove last week.

Campbell Newman campaigning in Ashgrove last week. Photo: Harrison Saragossi

1. Campbell Newman wins Ashgrove, and the election

Newman's chances of winning the seat of Ashgrove (he was catapulted into the LNP leadership as a parliamentary outsider) have suffered amid Labor's relentless attacks on his integrity. Yet the money is still on the former army engineer and Brisbane lord mayor to scrape in to power.

But there is unlikely to be much time for savouring victory. Queensland is $85 billion in debt and Newman's promise of an independent audit of the government's books is expected to uncover even more financial headaches.

Anna Bligh took shelter from the rain at a policy announcement south of Brisbane yesterday.

Anna Bligh took shelter from the rain at a policy announcement south of Brisbane yesterday. Photo: Harrison Saragossi

In the short-term, Newman is likely to cap debt and make savings where he can. He will attempt to revitalise Queensland by leveraging the resources boom to grow other industries - rather than endure a prolonged two-speed economy. He is particularly keen to rebuild Queensland's regions.

Ministers and senior public servants will be under scrutiny, unable to blame staff for problems with their portfolios or agencies.

Newman will have to choose his ministry carefully, selecting the best available talent without getting old stagers offside. He'll also have a large backbench to control, with the LNP tipped to win up to 17 seats Labor holds by less than 5 per cent.

While some senior public servants are likely to be shown the door, Newman won't engage in a night of the long knives, unlike Kevin Rudd who infamously sent public servants to gulags when he was chief-of-staff to incoming Labor premier Wayne Goss in 1989.

And the people of Ashgrove can expect three years of special attention, as Newman looks to shore up his majority ahead of the next election.

2. LNP wins, but Newman loses Ashgrove

Queenslanders could wake up next Sunday not knowing who is going to run their state.

Newman's deputy and treasury spokesman, the Brisbane Liberal Tim Nicholls, is widely expected to be elected leader - although the arrival of at least 20 new MPs in the party room could shake up the contest.

Installing Nicholls as premier raises the spectre of the renewed influence of disgraced former federal aged care minister and Tony Abbott ally Santo Santoro in Queensland politics. Santoro (now vice-president of the federal Liberal Party) was once the state member for Clayfield, the electorate Nicholls represents, and the two are close.

A Nicholls premiership could also upset the fragile unity in the LNP party room. The old Nats contingent would be barracking for Jeff Seeney (who acted as LNP leader within Parliament while Newman led the party from outside) or Lawrence Springborg, who led the Coalition to three successive defeats in Queensland, but is credited with being the ''father'' of the parties' successful merger.

Whoever assumes the premiership in Newman's absence would be leading an immediately destabilised government and left vulnerable to the same sort of legitimacy questions that have dogged Julia Gillard since she deposed Rudd as PM.

Although Newman has vowed to walk away from politics if he doesn't win Ashgrove, there is still the possibility that a newly elected LNP MP could be inveigled to resign, clearing the way for a byelection to get Newman into Parliament.

3. Anna Bligh pulls off the unthinkable, and wins

If by some miracle Bligh pulls off a win, it would arguably be the most remarkable political turnaround since Paul Keating defeated John Hewson in 1993.

Labor is resigned to losing next Saturday, the only question is by how much. Bligh and state secretary Anthony Chisholm have run such a strong campaign that party insiders who were predicting they would be left with just 20 seats in a New South Wales-style wipeout are now hoping it could be closer to 25 or 30, a far more respectable defeat.

Bligh admitted last week that ''the most likely result is that Labor will not win the election'', as the LNP remains 16 points ahead on a two-party preferred basis.