Taiwan and China

Strait talking

Progress in talks with China is a mixed blessing for Ma Ying-jeou

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Readers' comments



Objectively, I think there wouldn't be much difficulty to realize political unification for China, if the US no longer sells arms to Taiwan, western countries no longer bother, and the people in Taiwan are no longer naive.
The obstacles of China's unification are not only from internal but also from outside.

Hosea S

Taiwan’s government is in many ways still struggling to establish its own legitimacy as a nation on the international level, and as a democracy on the domestic level. It faces a great deal of international pressure from China on the former point. On the latter, it faces serious internal questioning of legitimacy (less so about its independent status, but more as a democracy), especially given the corruption in the last presidency, and the well-publicized fist-fights in its own legislature. Clearly, it is still trying to define its relationship with China in a way so that it has the most economic benefit during this time of financial hardship, but also so that it does not marginalize anti-mainland groups.

The DDP may try to portray any dealings with China as being almost treacherous, but I imagine that if ASEAN-China pact goes through, it would be increasingly difficult for Taiwan to have access to regional trade as China continues to use its regional hegemony to push Taiwan to the side. In this case, President Ma obviously decided that the economic benefit outweighed the political implications and domestic backlash. But Taiwan is fundamentally different from China in that its citizenry is much more ideological and expressive (probably due to its political freedoms). Whereas in China, the vast majority of the citizenry would tend not to care about the ideological implications of a government decision, as long as it made economic sense, Taiwan’s citizenry would care much more, especially since a good number of people there were around during the first years of Taiwanese independence.

It would be hard to tell what kind of domestic effect would occur if this deal with China went through, but even as President Ma’s political capital is drained, it would be reasonable to remember that the people of Taiwan may not quickly shift over to supporting the DDP, given the scandal surrounding the end of Chen Sui-bian’s term.

hope ni

The truth is that China dare not to take or conquer Taiwan without the nodding of US and Japan. THe loss of Taiwan would give Japan every reason to arm herself,which will tumble the world and scar China to death. But A strong armed Japan is not the interest to US or South-East Asia Countries. I often wonder if Taiwan take a open city policy without buying any weapons any more, what will happen? Dare Communist China attack Taiwan?

hope ni

To tell the truth, China dare not to take or conquer Taiwan without the nodding of US and Japan. With Taiwan's loss to China, Japan would have every reason to arm herself,that should tumble the world and scare China. But a strong armed Japan is not the interest to US, China or South-East countries. I often wonder if Taiwan take open city policy without buying any further weapons from US, what will happen?


"Taiwan is a democratic country and the decision of whether it shall sign ECFA shall be decided by the Taiwanese or the parliament the Taiwanese elected."

If you let the decision made by a referendum, then it is mob-rule instead of democracy. Highly complex pact such as ECFA should be determined by experts, instead by some random votes from, say, some fishermen or betel girls. On the other hand, the KMT has majority in the Legislate Yuan, do you still want a vote?

"Let us remind the Chinese readers of the Economist that despite all their economic and political woes, most Taiwanese still prefer to deal with those troubles than to be "saved" by China as these readers suggested."

I would be more cautious to claim that my personal opinion is representative of those from the rest of the 23 million people. Opinions are easily changed by the circumstance. For example, I doubt the Taiwanese will have the same mindset as today once China's third carrier battle group starts to roam the waters of west Pacific Ocean.


Taiwan is a democratic country and the decision of whether it shall sign ECFA shall be decided by the Taiwanese or the parliament the Taiwanese elected. The 'black box' operation only brings distrust in Ma and his team. In despite of the objections and protests from the public, Ma still insisted on signing ECFA. It makes people wonder whether he is ruling Taiwan as his empire or a democratic country.


Yonkers, New York
03 January 2009

Confrontation has not benefited either China or Taiwan. Without too much fanfare, for many years now businessmen on both sides have entered into relations which bode well for eventual rapprochement between the two countries, as well as for the United States which under vague language has long promised to defend Taiwan against China.

ECFA is a welcome developement. Some Taiwanese politicians who are for independence may not favor ECFA, but other Taiwanese leaders and their many followers are realistically in favor of moving forward on rapprochement.

Mariano Patalinjug


Honestly, I don't understand why the counterpart still hold the position against President Ma.

The benefit to connect with mainland is much much higher than the cost. The island, like Hong Kong and Macao, will enjoy prosperity under the wings of Communist. Only cost is the officer's personal interest. Taiwan have to rely on China. Have to



Let us not forget that should Taiwanese really want to be a part of China, they can announce so now and China will be more than thrilled to start talking. But embarrassingly obvious to our Chinese readers, everyone know that is not the case. Taiwan will remain independent for as long it is able to, and many hope to be forever.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

I'd rather get a poke in the eye with a sharp stick than buy equities right here. At a PE multiple of 20 times earnings, US equities (SPX) are at the top of a seven year valuation range. Emerging markets are even worse, with China sporting a positively bubblicious 40 multiple. There is no doubt that corporate managements panicked at the beginning of 2009 and chopped overheads at an unprecedented rate, leading to the eye popping 700,000 monthly nonfarm payroll losses we witnessed. With the economy snapping back faster than any of them expected, they accidently created the widest profit margins in history. Don't expect lightening to strike twice in the same place. Those margins can only shrink from here, either through the long delayed rehiring of workers that bumps up costs, or because of a double dip recession that slashes revenues. Equities are a lose-lose trade here, threatening more downside than upside. Barton Biggs taught me to always leave the last ten percent of a move for the next guy. Unfortunately, with interest rates at zero, some models value equities at infinity, and many traders seem hell bent on taking stocks there. So as expensive as equities are here, they may be about to surf a New Year tidal wave of liquidity to even greater heights. During their eighties stock market bubble, the Japanese loved to quote a favorite local expression: "When the fools are dancing, the greater fools are watching." The same may apply now to American equity investors. But this next boost could well be setting up one of the great shorting opportunities of the decade, which could start tomorrow, next week, next month, or by summer at the latest. If some bully is holding you by your ankles outside a high floor window, threatening to let go if you don't buy equities, only pick the emerging market variety (EEM). Think the BRIC's, Brazil (EWZ), Russia (RSX), India (PIN), and China (FXI), with South Korea (EWY), Taiwan (EWT), and Indonesia (IDX) thrown in for a more sophisticated flavor. But keep an itchy trigger finger on your mouse, because when the turn comes, there will be no place to hide. And beat the rush by booking that house in the Hamptons, the lakefront property at Tahoe, or the mega yacht in the Mediterranean, early. Madhedgefundtrader

hope ni

It is China that deny Taiwan's any accesses to intrnational agenda or organizations, not to mention any FTA with ASEAN countries. The only way to shun the ironfist of Comunist China is that US will make an informal Free Trade Agreement with Taiwan,just as that of AIT(American Institute in Taiwan),on the pattern of which many nations have their informal ambassddors stationed here. US still can help Taiwan a lot. At least, she can keep Taiwan afloat to safegard Japan.


President Ma is an epitome of what Warren Barrett called "plutocracy." He and his cronies of "elitist" Taiwanese moved all their asset, wealth and children to the US so their future generations don't have to live under any law/trade pact they sign with China. Obviously, the Chinese people in China don't view Ma and his cronies as "real Chinese." In their dreams, Ma and his cronies keep chanting "TODAY WE ARE THE CHINESE, TOMORROW WE ARE THE WORLD." (Adolf's version replaces "Chinese" with "German"). I feel sad for these "Pluto-Taiwanese." Maybe their children will get melted away by the American melting pot and they will finally have some sense of belonging.

hope ni

China rejects the names of Taiwan,Chinese Taipei or Taipei.In CNN or NHK Weather forecast, even the name of Taiwanese place is empty. Last year, many Englsih websites of Banks and even porno show "Taiwan,a province of China" in country select item, which i think China gives these sites money to do so in its diplomatic spending. Therefore,the ECFA is impossible to strike any deal as China wants to subjugate Taiwan as a province rather than an equal entity or counterpart. Taiwan president Ma is either naive or foolish to count on the mercy of relentless China.


My friends at work and I have a pool going. Every time The Economist writes an article about China and/or Taiwan, we bet on what persentage of the posts will be uber-nationalist Chinese, how many will rag on India, how many will site some trivium of history to prove a point, how many will say that the west is no better. Kind of a geeky thing to do, but it brings a bit of fun to our day. So, thanks guys.


KMT's relative poor showing in the December 2009 local elections was mainly due to KMT government's handling of (1) typhoon Morakot; and (2) import of US beef. There is therefore no "electoral pressure" for Ma to go slow on ECFA. More explaining to the grassroot perhaps, but certainly no go slow.

Maintaining good ties with the mainland is not an issue for Taiwanese except for hardcore DPP supporters. Ordinary Taiwanese are not as stupid as the Economist thinks.


Salamander8 informs us:

"Taiwan is in a difficult bind. It can neither afford to officially declare independence, nor to actually unify with mainland China."

Ever and again comes the failure to recognise that Taiwan has nothing to declare independence FROM. It is in Taiwan, not the mainland, that the seat of the legitimate government of the Republic of China, set up by Dr Sun Yat Sen, lies. It is constitutionally continuous with it. It is the bandit regime in Peking that has no legitimacy, though admittedly the bandits are now largely dead and thus beyond the reach of justice, and their heirs arguably not intentionally guilty of treason. The hope of all people everywhere who wish China well is that the mainland regime will seek some form of constitutional accommodation and thus acquire legitimacy within a unified Republic of China. The real problem will be the status of Mongolia, the province that the communist regime threw away, in defiance of the longstanding policies of the true Chinese government, which has never recognised the throw-away.


Reading China Times and UDN, looks like there is a lot of anxiety within TW regarding the China-Asean FTA. I would suggest CCP and KMT to technically slow down the negociation of ECFA, which is what DPP has been troublemaking. And thus, DPP and die-hard independence supporters will be blamed for obstructing TW economic well-being by overplaying politics.


Taiwan is in a difficult bind. It can neither afford to officially declare independence, nor to actually unify with mainland China. On the one, it can't afford to declare independence because that could result in a war and, despite Taiwan being more advanced per capita than the mainland, there's no way an island nation of tens of millions can defeat an onslaught from a nation of 1.4 billion; and neither can it depend n the U.S. to stand behind it 100%.

On the other hand, neither can Taiwan be expected to voluntarily unify with the mainland. Ask yourself, how many times have 'defacto' independent nations, with their own military, democratically elected governments, and currency voluntarily given up their sovereignty? This type of thing only happens when a superior force conquers nations, much as England or Japan did to China, back in the day. "Brotherhood" between ethnic Han Chinese aside, this is a union that won't happen unless it's over the barrel of a gun. It's not like Taiwan and mainland won't still be "brothers" if they have separate governments, after all, but if they were to combine, the Taiwanese would lose their hard-earned democratic government and sovereignty.

The last part of this tricky equation for Taiwan is that I'm not certain that, even decades from now, China feels it can afford to give up. This is because Taiwan has an important military position by controlling a straits. China wants to have a strong navy, and this is a tempting aspect of Taiwan that may be hard to give up.

Justice says that Taiwan should be allowed to vote as to whether they want to unify, without fear of repercussions (this won't happen, but if Taiwanese knew they wouldn't be attacked either way, it's a safe bet they'd declare independence). Alas, as human history shows, justice doesn't always win. We'll see.


If Taiwan can keep up its dance for 10-20 more years, China may have grown into a parlamentary system with state control loosened though still strong and centralized politically and economically. In 10-20 years it Chinas view of Tibet, Mongolia, Burma, Russian eastern territories, Taiwan, North Korea could have changed.

On a scale of 30 years in China, 30 years ago Moa would have demanded Taiwan just as it demanded Tibet and its puppet North Korea. 30 years from now, China may have grown to a point where nations it once considered critical to control are acceptable as independent within its hegemony or a loose cultural and economic confederation.

My only advice to Taiwan is that China is changing fast and the mainland chinese people are changing faster than the government. In a few years...the chinese people may be a bigger problem than their foreign hegemony. Best advice I can offer to Taiwan is to keep dancing and biding for its future. The only nation that should be considering unification is north and south korea. Other than that, Taiwan should begin by pursuing a cultural and economic confederation while dancing on military and national independence....in the future that may be a very palatable deal not just for Taiwan but for the headache Tibet offers and a few others.


From the point of view of US, Japan and South Korea and perhaps a significant extent of southeast asia, all would benefit from Taiwan independence though wont say it publicly.

From the viewpoint of China, the best would be a Chinese confederation with a negotiated form of independence available in a confederation for Taiwan

From the viewport of the Taiwanese, there is some merit to the Dali Lama policy of peaceful coexistence and time, which also happens tobe the US policy on China-Taiwan unification. Taiwan certainly has better unification and independence negotiations in 2010, than they wouldhave in 2000 or 1990 or 1980 or 1970. As China develops, internal forces are moving it from communism to socialism.


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