China’s Achilles heel


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Don't forget the possible behavioural changes for 1bn people. Not sure how true this paper is but the conclusion is:

"Those who grew up as only children as a consequence of the (one-child) policy are found to be less trusting, less trustworthy, less likely to take risks, and less competitive than if they had had siblings. They are also less optimistic, less conscientious, and
more prone to neuroticism."

"Little Emperors—Behavioral Impacts of China’s One-Child Policy" by Cameron et. al. Sept 15, 2011

Michael Dunne in reply to edwardong

Old suspicions of housewives was, say back to the 1950s, that kids that grew up as the only child in the family tend to be spoiled.

To be honest, I never really saw that, but maybe because there were quite a few two-, three- and four-children families where all of the spawn were spoiled....


Well, if government would not take the responsibility to take care of these old peoples in 40 years, including me, that would not be a difficulty for the contry, like now, hundreds millions of old peoples living in rural area even don't have basic inssurance, such as medical aid, pension, can you image what will happen if same case happens in the US, Chinese people would not strive if they still have food to feed themselves, unless he doesn't feed himself.
Like debt crisis in Greece, the load for paying pension is unaffordable, that would not happen in China, first of all, the government just doesn't pay, second, they print out giant amount of RMB.Everything is unlogical here, so sometimes, predictors are wrong.


we chinese really need democracy badly.

China ruling bloc 's endless lust of grabbing for Chiense concubines and hence oppression on the Chinese handsome from lower social classes is aberrant , imbruted, sensual.. The more they are like predators, they more excited the china ruling bloc will become . This , together with sensual stimulas, is their main impetus of development.


This article is below par for the economist. An article about demography that doesn't once mention the gap in life expectancy between China and the US. Not to mention that the same way china implemented the one child law it could just as easily force the new generation to have more children.


1. Western boycott of Chinese exports
2. Western default on Chinese loans
3. Western exclusion of Chinese students
4. Western integration with Russia and Middle Eastern nations
5. Western support for indomitable Japanese defenses



1. Western boycott of Indian exports (should be easy, because India doesn't actually export all that much, with the exception of outsourced call center jobs)

2. Western default on Indian loans (also should be easy, since poorass India doesn't own all that much Western bonds)

3. Western exclusion of Indian students (which it is already doing, judging by how difficult it is for Indian students to get into business school)

4. Western integration with China and Russia. Throw in some Muslims too; why not...

5. Western support for indomitable Pakistani defenses


Actually, maybe the problem is not that serious. We've been eating food with "poison" for our whole life in China. We won't live that long. Our parents won't live that long. Don't worry about it.


As for the which-language-should-I-learn debate, pick something with a geographic spread. How about Spanish, Portuguese, or French? Spanish and Portuguese will also probably get stronger in the future, so that's a plus. But Hindi? Why learn a language only spoken in part of one country when English will serve just as well there? Mandarin is only spoken in three, and everyone speaks English in SG and TW is generally an afterthought (sadly, cause it's awesome).

Obviously, this is mostly based on utility. Otherwise study whatever! Mandarin was interesting and fun to learn, so I recommend it based on that.

Michael Dunne in reply to Bfordc

Agree with the point about the unnecessary message on sharing.

Also, they should get rid of the "trending topics" feature too - The bubbles and and links graph doesn't seem to work well, or provide much value.

MostJustWantPeace in reply to Bfordc

On a side note, if anybody thinks that Mandarin tones are difficult, try to learn those for Cantonese or Vietnamese - apparently, the former has 8-10 tones depending on how you count it.

Also, on a even more tangential side note, I have tried to learn the tones in Burmese. Burmese has pitch-register tones (where one varies the pitch of the said syllable) rather than contour tones like in Mandarin. I thought they would be easier, but they are difficult in their own ways. Maybe Tocharian can teach me how not to confuse the low (first) and creaky (third) tones?

Michael Dunne in reply to AlfredYWong

You could just speak English. Many of the customer facing workers speak English. In the case of the UAE, many are expats.

Otherwise, Arabic is tough. My mother and her siblings couldn't learn it, despite their parents being native speakers, and immigrants from the Levant.

I heard that Arabic is quite a special language - many of its more guttural phonemes are hard to pronounce if you are a non-native speaker, and native speakers have their throats shaped as they grow up to be able to pronounce these sounds since they start speaking it from very young.

Michael Dunne in reply to AlfredYWong

If you are travelling to South America quite a bit, I would recommend it - And yes I know that Portuguese is spoken in Brazil.

I travelled to South America quite a bit back in the 1990s, so I went to the local high school for night classes for adults. Ended up having an excellent Peruvian teacher who taught about everyone in the town for 40 plus years.

Worked out quite well. Didn't achieve fluency or even a high level of proficiency, but acquired sufficient skill to struggle through a conversation, and deal with matters off the beaten path (say order beer, find the bathroom, rent a horse, etc. in the sacred valley).

Be aware that Argentine Spanish and Chilean Spanish can be a bit different.


The demographic outlook will be the killer. There is evidence that Japan's economy has not done badly, and has even grown, in the years since the bubble economy burst around 1990, when the aging society has been taken into account. But the bad demographics of people living longer than anywhere else, combined with a relatively rigid society that limits female choice and is wealthy, ensures that Japan is in an economic funk from which it likely will never emerge. Japan's outlook is not good; China's is worse. All that was mentioned in the article can be combined with the rampant sex selection of babies. There are already increasingly fewer couples available to procreate, but having 30 million or so too many men looking for wives greatly exacerbates the problem. If anything, this article is too optimistic: China will decline quickly.

L6QjhvJGVk in reply to Bfordc

I do not agree with you on this point. Talent is always available to a fast growing economy - e.g., Singapore. Having babies is not the only solution. Also with the largest foreign exchange reserves (which are still growing) in the world, Chinese factories will easily locate to other destinations in Asia - and elsewhere. This is already happening. The Chinese growth rate is highly sustainable at a 6% level for at least 2 decades.

type568 in reply to L6QjhvJGVk


That's a very, uhm.. Optimistic forecast, which may or may not come true. It is also extremely dependent on the world economy. If we get breakup of the EZ, even China will very much feel the recoil.

L6QjhvJGVk in reply to type568

Interesting point. If the EZ does break-up, individual countries will still buy goods, unless they all go into recession together. The other interesting figure is that China's export profile is slowly changing - i.e., lower dependance on the OECD countries and more towards the emerging economies.

type568 in reply to L6QjhvJGVk

6% is quite ambitious, for such a long term.. Not like I say it's impossible, but I think it's rather not likely.

And regarding emerging markets sinking in to recession on EZ breakup.. Hell yes, most will do. Not the Motherland most likely, but it ain't gonna have 6% either.

Though cheaper oil gonna help :D

Bfordc in reply to L6QjhvJGVk

You are correct that having babies is not the only solution. However, the other avenues are probably not going to be used in China. It is not an immigrant nation and does not have elements that most other fast-growing nations have, i.e., a fair and transparent legal system. Besides, the article gives China about two decades before the house will really fall in. Economic growth, of 6% or even more, will not be enough to prevent it.


You taste the sour gropes. LOL:

Daveycool in reply to Bismarck888

"Or groping a stranger, will cause you to be groped by a 300 lb sweaty bumboy in the local hole. Ever thought of the consequences?"

This never happens to me. Most are grateful to get groped by me (I am very handsome, I was once discovered and invited to be a supermodel but I wanted my privacy) so I never get in trouble. Especially the hot ones, most people are intimidated by their hotness that they get much less "action" than even uglier ones. Or maybe the groping was all done in Italy. I love Italy (or used to, I haven't been there in a lng time), girls get molested and it seems they just shrug it off.

Bismarck888 in reply to Daveycool

Your hotness will eventually be your downfall. You will end be someone's bitch in prison. I will send you a makeup kit when you get locked up. Your prison boyfriend will appreciate the gesture.

Daveycool in reply to Bismarck888

"Your hotness will eventually be your downfall. You will end be someone's bitch in prison."

I understand your jealousy. Most people react to my handsomeness in just the same way. If I do end up in prison, other inmates will ask (more like beg, but I'm humble, I use "ask") to be my bitch. Wardens, especially if they are women, will inevitably find ways to comply with my wishes. The male wardens will count the days when I get released because they want me to show them the "art" of picking up hot women and perhaps play their wingman when they go to a bar. They will be disappointed, it's not just my moves, it's my looks too.

Bismarck888 in reply to Daveycool

Some jealous manslut will spread rumors that you are in for diddling wee boys, and you will be put in solitary, for your own safety. Being handsome / attention seeker in prison, never pays off. I know people who went to prison, and the first thing you learn is don't attract attention.

Anyways, you will become so desperate in solitary you will trade your anal virginity for a tootsie roll.

Daveycool in reply to Bismarck888

"Some jealous manslut will spread rumors that you are in for diddling wee boys"

That's just impossible because even if I am constantly surrounded by jealous people everyone knows I wouldn't diddle anyone remotely like a boy.

Solitary is a label that would be inaccurate when applied to me. The lady wardens would visit me whenever they get a chance and bring their own tootsie rolls for the "games".


China doesn't need your style democracy at the current times. Yes, China need to be renovation and we are on our way. Don't worry about our affairs, do your own business.


The vast majority of the countries in the world -if not ALL of them- will one day have to face aging population problems.

China will just happen to face them before America will.

The "aging population problem" most of the times is not a competitive problem relative to other countries because each one of them will first or later have to cope with it.

bchannon in reply to LVX

America is already facing aging population problems.

Thats what the Baby Boomers are.

Japan faced it, Europe and US is facing it.

However, China will face it, and to a much larger scale, and then soon after they will face a declining population.

Economically, this is will have severe effects on GDP.

China can not expect 10% growth for the next 20 years. It will either be very low or even negative.


AlfredYWong in reply to LVX

The point of this issue is not that China is unique in facing a demographic problem vis-a-vis its aging population, but that it is facing it too soon. One quote which strikes me as particularly interesting is "China will grow old before it gets rich". WIth much of the world focused on the booming Chinese economy, people often neglect the fact that much of China's population and territory are still in third-world situations. Those who are affected by blistering economic growth often find themselves on the receiving end of environmental damage and financial waste, as well as reaping little dividends from said growth (growing rural-urban and general income inequality is a testament to this problem).

Michael Dunne in reply to bchannon


The US is not even in the same ball park. The Baby Boomers represent a bulge - the equivalent of a goat passing through an anaconda.

Japan, Germany, a slew of eastern European states and others are experiencing absolute declines in populations, now.

I believe Taiwan, S. Korea and China are up at bat to experience the same.

Maybe they can smooth things out, have the trend bottom out.

I thought the Russians are claiming of having achieved that recently, although I don't know the details. Another poster has played that up.

I also thought Sweden and France have pursued some policies that have met some success, like spending more on programs to make life easier for women after they have kids (childcare maybe?)?

The US is right now in the middle of the pack in terms of population growth. Adjustments, not radical change, can probably be instituted to accommodate the Baby Boomers.

The problem is the health care debate has been purposely polarized, as well as spending on social programs, making it hard to cut through the noise and arrive at practical policies and compromises.

Same for immigration, which interestingly seems to work up the neo-dixiecrat/John Birch Society crowd that at the same time is most likely to benefit from illegal immigrants.

bchannon in reply to Michael Dunne

I agree, what we see here in the US pales in comparison to what will happen in China. But thats just my point, our aging population has already caused economic waves, for better and for worse, as the Baby Boomers go through their economic cycle.

Russia is an interesting case and, imo, could be foreshadowing for China.

Russia was once a booming communist economy. Right around the year their population declined, also was when their economy collapsed. Sure, there are a lot of factors that go into this equation, but demography is definitely part of the equation.

I have actually been following this China trend since 2009, as I visited and wrote a research paper on this topic. Slowly but surely, its becoming a big concern.


Deebles in reply to Michael Dunne

"Maybe they can smooth things out, have the trend bottom out.


I recommend having a go with google's graphs of world bank data on fertility rate to see how it's changed in different countries. Fertility rate has indeed seemed to rise from its bottom level in a number of countries. The following graph from that source shows the varying degrees of recent rise in fertility in the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Russia, for instance:!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:RUS:GBR:FRA:ITA:ESP:SWE&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

How far it will rise in any of these countries before it either falls again or sticks at a new equilibrium is anybody's guess, however. But looking closely at what happened there might well be a good idea for Germany, Japan, South Korea, and many other countries whose fertility rates are well below replacement level.

LVX in reply to AlfredYWong

Agree with you.
But the way it's presented, it seems as if China has a problem, America has an advantage.

I also agree that China's population trends might hit harder and stronger, but it's an issue -I wouldn't use the word "problem"- that we all will one day face as population can't keep growing for ever.

And America will face it once China has already been grappling with it for years -if not already come to grips with it-. In that case, timing will be on China's side.


i doubt whether the author really understands demography & China for the claims

that "very low fertility rate can become self-reinforcing"

and that "those in their early 20s are the best educated and most productive in the society."


I doubt whether the low fertility can become self-reinforcing or not. Actually one-child policy brings lots of problems for family and society since it was carried out. Most of my friends and family members still hope to have more than two children. I agree with that China will grow old before it gets rich. This really should be considered more. As all Chinese known, China has poor social welfare and we must prepare by ourselves. When the average age become older, Chinese economy will increase slower and our welfare will become worse. By the way, I was surprised when I saw "guanxi" LOL...


There have been a couple of comments on whether to learn Hindi or Mandarin in view of who rises and who falls. Seems to me English, though, is the safest bet. French the most unsafe.

Some say it is a derivation of a gypsy term, others say taken from a town that particulary got ranked on (Chatham Average?)...

I always liked the acronym idea:

Council Housed and Violent

Nothing new for the UK, which had the Teddy Boy phenomenon back in the 1950s (John Lennon was one), the Mods and Rockers in the 1960s, punks, skin heads, lad'ims (and even ladettes).

All distilled by that Stanley Kubrick class, A Clockwork Orange (although inspired by crimes of American deserters in WWII London), which my wife won't let me watch at the homestead.

But as a prior poster mentioned, generally an antisocial type, not keen on intellectual pursuits, big on sports, possibly big on hip hop culture, etc.

guest-isjsswa in reply to Clint.Southward

get your head cracked open.

Hopefully you'll suffer the same fate fucking cunt.

blowing your brains out. You'll be doing the whole world a favor. Shitbag.


Die painfully okay? Prefearbly by getting crushed to death in a
garbage compactor, by getting your face cut to ribbons with a
sliced open and your entrails spilled out, and your eyeballs ripped
out of their sockets. Fucking bitch

cut your windpipe in two with a boxcutter.
Hopefully you'll get what's coming to you. Fucking bitch

leaving you to die in horrible, agonizing pain. Faggot

to ribbons, and your throat slit.

kill you.

hospital in intensive care, fighting for your worthless life.


east wind


@ zerge

With economist like Paul Krugman around, no wonder the US economy is in shits


He is just a egoistical guy on an ego trip




I read somewhere that Paul Krugman refuses to discuss economics with non-economists, because they simply don´t get it. At the time I thought he was being pedantic, but after reading several of the postings here, I´m starting to see his point.

Jean Michel in reply to zerge

Most of the politicians are not economists. If Krugman refuses to discuss economics with non-economists, I wonder how his suggestions could be accepted and implemented by the politicians.

criticalobserver in reply to Jean Michel

Most of the politicians are lawyers and there lies the heart of the problem in America. I get the impression that the White House, Congress and Supreme Court are run by 95%, 99% and 110% lawyers respectively. In contrast 8 out of 9 of Hu Jintao's team are engineers/scientists. This suits China perfectly as she is in the midst of building massive infrastructures throughout the country. As China changes, the leadership mix should reflect the needs of the country. I firmly believe that the academic mix of the people at the helm is crucially important. Just as any university can't be run by one faculty, a country can't be run by the Faculty of Law only. And this is what is happening in the US.

PL123 in reply to criticalobserver


May be this is exactly the problem that China has no wish to reform politically ! Because they are busy on building road, Dam and houses, and their family members are busy cashing the profit and taking all credit. :(

AlfredYWong in reply to PL123

It's not as if the lawyers in the US government are very keen on changing the status quo, which is them arguing endlessly with standpoints which are often divorced from those of the general public. As befits the practice of law nowadays, Congress also makes laws that are long, convoluted, and filled with loopholes. The influence of lobbyists and monied interest groups also fills the pockets of the lawyers.

I personally favor a technocratic government, such as the one in Italy led by Mario Monti.

The interesting question then is: Why is having too many lawyers at the helm bad now as opposed to the past?

The US always had quite a few laywers in positions of authority compared to other countries. A plurality of those at continental congresses, the signing of the declaration of independence, and the drafting of the articles of confederation and later US Constitution were lawyers.

And many of the wealthy would have their sons acquire law degrees, especially since MBAs were not prestigious until relatively recently. Just got back from seeing all the "cottages" in Newport, Rhode Island, and it seems many of the spawn of robber barons got law degrees.

So what changed? Hit a certain percentage and things go down hill? With representative government, you need to work on legislation. Usually a law degree is helpful in such cases.

One reason Barney Frank got one AFTER winning a seat in the House of Representatives.

PL123 in reply to AlfredYWong

"I personally favor a technocratic government, such as the one in Italy led by Mario Monti."

May be you like Greek government which they will be soon out-voted.


No where is perfect, God is not. Law is particularly worse--made by Human. Lawyers are good at BS, finding holes in the loop !!


PL123 in reply to Michael Dunne

We have one famous law firm which they have only Phd lawyers.
After they hired a new lawyer and they want to keep him, he will be sent to a professor, write their paper, make their own note, and signed by this professor. Of course this professor got fund from this law firm too.

hehehe Win Win situation.

AlfredYWong in reply to PL123

I actually think Papademos did a good job, considering the fact that Pasok and ND were pretty much unwilling to do anything but the bare minimum, and then to argue that until the world falls away, because they didn't want to alienate their constituents (they did anyway, we'll see just how bad they did that in May). Greece was also a harder-hit country than Italy. Monti did a lot better since last year and early this year because he retained considerable popularity (at first) and a solid parliamentary coalition (at first).

Also, the two technocratic governments in Greece and Italy were never meant to be long-lasting, but rather governments that lasted one or two years (not sure on the time period) until the problem was fixed; then elections would be held to restore democratic rule.

And I completely agree with you on law; in a way, I hope that in government, engineers and economists are less willing to engage in wordplay as lawyers do to achieve their ends.


In principle I believe that lawyers alone calling all the shots is bad, past, present or future.

Looking at the US, I get the impression that lawyers pervade the entire economy directly and indirectly. Many CEO's including Coca Cola expressed the view that it is much easier to do business in China than in America because of it is too highly regulated. The need for lawyers in all areas inflate the entire economy and much of the high US service GDP (70% of the total GDP) is somehow lawyer related. e.g. doctors' need to pay high insurance premiums because of the threat of astronomical lawsuits spawns a hugh insurance industry and high medical costs. Thus I believe much of the US service GDP is non-productive. Included in this category are the lobby and election 'industries'. No wonder the US is becoming increasingly non-competitive !!



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