Environment: Content from Across the ABC


Date/Time 28 Dec 2014 11:32:14am
It is odd that the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology should choose to highlight the Cape Grim atmospheric gases recording station in North-West Tasmania in conjunction with the release of their latest report on the state of the nation's climate. The nearest Bureau of Meteorology recording site is at Marrawah, 25 km to the South-East. Data from the Bureau's Web site for the monthly mean maximum
temperature recorded since 1971 shows a rate of change of temperature of 0.0133 deg C per annum which is not statistically significant and provides no reason for rejecting the null hypothesis that the actual rate of warming is zero.

If this rate of warming was to occur then over a 40 year period the temperature rise would be 0.5 deg C and for an 80 year period 1.1 deg C. Yet the report states a rise of 0.6 to 1.5 deg C to 2030 and 1.0 to 5.0 deg C for the 80 year period to 2070.

Clearly the report has either inflated the likely temperature increase or their predicted warming is not going to happen in North-West Tasmania. It is likely that the predictions are based on
IPCC climate models that assume that increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere gives rise to increased atmospheric temperature. This is shown to be false by Cape Grim measurements.

The CO2 concentration data from Cape Grim when compared to the Marrawah monthly mean maximum temperature data gives a correlation coefficient of 0.0042 with a 94% probability for the null
hypothesis that there is no relationship between annual changes in both CO2 concentration and monthly mean maximum temperature. Yet the report says that "It is most likely that most of the surface global
warming observed since the mid 20th century is due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases." How can this be justified when the Cape Grim data shows no reason to expect temperature change from all CO2 in the atmosphere, not just the anthropogenic fraction.

Worst of all, the report states "CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology observations provide further evidence that climate change is real." Where have they been? The climate has changed continuously for the 4.5 billion years that the Earth has existed. Perhaps they can tell us when it was that the climate did not change.

Sara Phillips refers to "Australia's pre-eminent scientific organisations". That may have been the case 50 years ago but, sadly, it looks very much as though both the CSIRO and Bureau of
Meteorology are now just mouthpieces for the Federal Government’s policies.

She also states "Repetition is the key to remembering information". Yes, we are well aware that a lie repeated often enough can become accepted as the truth.