LIKE a boxer, Silvio Berlusconi weathered the first punch, but then came the uppercut. On June 13th, his Forza Italia party lost a sixth of its voters in the European elections. Two weeks later, voters in Milan delivered a dizzying second blow. Italy's financial capital and Mr Berlusconi's birthplace, Milan is also where he nurtured his political project. The left's candidate, ex-mayor of a town once known as Italy's Stalingrad, could scarcely be more typical of the ex-communisti Mr Berlusconi uses as bogeymen to scare the middle classes. Yet Milan's provincial governor lost more decisively than expected. Support for Forza Italia crumbled even in rich areas.

But is the prime minister staggering towards the canvas? One centre-left senator, Nando dalla Chiesa, proclaims “the end of Berlusconi”. Italians tend to overreact; but they can also recognise trends early. And what Milan thinks today is often what the rest of Italy thinks tomorrow, as the “wind from the north” periodically rearranges Italy's political landscape.

There are other reasons for believing a corner has been turned. The two votes have weakened Mr Berlusconi personally, and that could prove fatal for his coalition, a motley assortment of former neo-fascists (in the National Alliance), Christian Democrats (the Union of Centre Democrats, or UDC) and regional populists (in the Northern League). These parties want very different things. The National Alliance and the UDC are demanding a greater say in policymaking. They could thus stop Mr Berlusconi pursuing the policies needed to win back his supporters.

The National Alliance and the UDC draw most votes from the poorer south and centre, often from the public sector. Already, they have taken aim at tax cuts promised by Mr Berlusconi. The National Alliance says it will back them only if they are first made available to poorer taxpayers, which is anathema to liberals in Forza Italia. The National Alliance and UDC also dislike the government's proposed constitutional reform to make Italy more federal. But Northern Leaguers counter that, if constitutional reform goes, so will they.

As Mr Berlusconi threw himself into a round of meetings intended to produce a cabinet reshuffle and a rejigged government programme, he vowed not to let a mid-term setback bring him down. But he and his partners could yet squabble their way to destruction.