View Full Version : Toxic Differential and what it means for the playoffs

12-07-2010, 08:36 PM
I saw this on the front of NFL.com and just thought it was a neat article. Probably can't look too much into it, but I thought it was an interesting read.

Who is playoff-bound? 'Toxic differential' tells the tale

By Elliot Harrison Special to NFL.com
Published: Dec. 7, 2010 at 01:55 p.m.
Updated: Dec. 7, 2010 at 08:14 p.m.




So what is it?





Colts' toxic differential in 2010
Takeaways/ Giveaways /Differential
16 /22 /-6
Big plays /Big plays allowed /Differential
37 /42 /-5
Toxic differential -11


Peyton Manning (http://www.nfl.com/players/peytonmanning/profile?id=MAN515097) has thrown 11 interceptions in the last three weeks, pushing Indy's turnover ratio to minus-6 this season. But it's not just Manning. The defense has given up 42 plays of 20-plus yards, which is 11th in the league. That's not awful, but considering they led the league in said category last season (http://www.nfl.com/goto?id=09000d5d81ab896c), it's relevant. Throw in the fact that the offense is 29th in the NFL at generating big plays, and you have a .500 club.




Top 10 rushing teams from 2009
Team/ Rushing YPG/ Result
1. Jets 172.2 /Wild card
2. Titans 162.0/ Missed playoffs
3. Panthers 156.1/ Missed playoffs
4. Dolphins 139.4 /Missed playoffs
5. Ravens 137.5 /Wild card
6. Saints 131.6/ Won division
7. Cowboys 131.4 /Won division
8. Browns 130.4/ Missed playoffs
9. Bengals 128.5 /Won division
10. Jaguars 126.8 /Missed playoffs






Largest toxic differentials since 2000
Team /Turnover diff. /Big-play diff. /Toxic diff.
1. Steelers +43/ +170 /+213
2. Eagles +58/ +138 /+196
3. Colts +46 /+129 /+175
4. Chargers +17/ +131 /+148
5. Patriots +75/ +34 /+109
6. Bucs +62/ +15 /+77
7. Packers +29/ +48/ +77
8. Broncos +17/ +42 +/59
9. Jets +28/ +29/ +57
10. Cowboys -57 /+95 /+38
11. Ravens +39 /-3 /+36
12. Jaguars +17 /+9 /+26






The Saints were awesome at creating big plays and forcing turnovers last season, with Drew Brees (http://www.nfl.com/players/drewbrees/profile?id=BRE229498) lighting it up, while the Darren Sharper (http://www.nfl.com/players/darrensharper/profile?id=SHA500479)-led defense intercepted passes and sprinted towards the end zone seemingly every week. But with the risks the defense took to force those turnovers came the occasional big plays given up. That's why New Orleans finished second in takeaways and 25th in yards allowed.

Highest toxic differential this season
Team/ Turnover diff./ Big-play diff. /Toxic diff./ W-L
1. Steelers +11 /+26 /+37/ 9-3
2. Eagles +15 /+15/ +30 /8-4
3. Bolts -5 /+32 /+27/ 6-6
4. Giants -1/ +25/ +24/ 8-4
5. Bucs +9 /+11 /+20/ 7-5
6. Packers +8 /+6 /+14 /8-4
7. Patriots +14/ E /+14 /10-2
8. Falcons +10 /+2 /+12 /10-2
9. Chiefs +7 /+4 /+11 /8-4
10. Jets +4 /+5 /+9 /9-3

This season, the Giants have been winning their toxic differential battle in a different manner. The G-Men get a lot of big plays down the field to Hakeem Nicks (http://www.nfl.com/players/hakeemnicks/profile?id=NIC726593) and Co., limit explosive plays and force other offenses into making mistakes. But Eli Manning (http://www.nfl.com/players/elimanning/profile?id=MAN473170) has been a turnover machine, throwing 17 picks and losing five fumbles. Big Blue is meeting three out of four criteria, like the Saints did last year, and other playoff teams typically do. It's no surprise they're sitting pretty at 8-4.



tony hipchest
12-07-2010, 09:03 PM
excellent article. i knew right away w/o even reading that steelers had to be leading.

up until yesterday they were leading the league in a +11 t.o. differential and have only given up 1 run longer than 20 yds all year. they very seldom get beaten deep with the pass, and typically are near the top in passes above 20 yards (wallace leads the league with 21+ yds per catch).

12-07-2010, 09:09 PM
I know some of it seems pretty self explanatory (like it seems obvious that a team with a good TO ratio and big play differential would do well in the playoffs), I just liked seeing all the stats laid out like that.

12-07-2010, 09:48 PM
Another excellent article discussing almost the same thing:

http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3498_Big_Plays_%3D_big_wins%2C_exciting_games.h tml

Steelers are #2. At least before this week.