Illustration by Claudio Munoz

THE news that North Korea had carried out a second underground nuclear test, on May 25th, nearly three years after what it claimed was its first, and that it created a bigger bang this time, drew swift international condemnation. The United Nations Security Council speedily condemned the nuclear effrontery. Even China, a supposed friend of the rogue regime, piled in. Unabashed, the forces of Kim Jong Il, North Korea's oddball dictator, subsequently fired off a handful of short-range missiles for good measure.


North Korea also says it has torn up the truce that ended the Korean war in 1953. This was provoked, it says, by South Korea's decision to join the American-led Proliferation Security Initiative, a group that aims to block shipments of weapons of mass destruction and related contraband. South Korea was reacting to Mr Kim's nuclear test; North Korea accused it of a “declaration of war”. With American and South Korean troops put on a higher alert, some kind of military clash looks possible.

North Korea has also said it is restarting its plutonium reprocessing plant at Yongbyon, closed since 2007 as part of a disarmament deal negotiated with America, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia. International nuclear inspectors have been kicked out of the country. There is also concern that North Korea will resume selling nuclear technology abroad.

Earlier this month North Korea told South Korean managers at the Kaesong industrial complex, not long ago seen as a symbol of warming ties on the peninsula, that they must sign new, costlier contracts for North Korean workers, or pack up and go. The chief North Korean negotiator of closer relations between North and South, once a confidant of Mr Kim, is rumoured to have been sent to a labour camp and even shot, possibly for taking bribes.

Mr Kim has played high-stakes games before, only to return to the six-party talks aimed at getting North Korea to dismantle his programmes in return for aid and security guarantees. With what looks to have been a successful nuclear test (the previous one fizzled) the stakes have again been raised. But the North's actions suggest it now wants to kill the six-party process.

Indeed, Mr Kim may have other things in mind. Not since the death of the divine (and now eternally president) Kim Il Sung in 1994, and the accession to power of his son, the current leader, has North Korean behaviour appeared so erratic. One assumption is that Mr Kim is locked in negotiations over the anointing of his successor. He reportedly suffered a stroke last summer and in rare appearances since has looked a shadow of his former paunchy self. The chief surprise is that the 68-year-old Dear Leader had not set the succession in train years before. One explanation may be that his offspring appear an underwhelming lot, with no great lust for power.

In April his brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, was appointed to the crucial National Defence Commission. It is thought he could act as regent to Mr Kim's youngest son, Kim Jong Un, still in his 20s. Of two elder sons, Kim Jong Nam was nabbed in Japan in 2001 using a false passport. And Kim Jong Chol has so far shown most interest in that other divinity, Eric Clapton, whose concerts he attended in Germany.

Kim Jong Il, it is claimed in North Korea, was born on the slopes of Korea's sacred Paekdu mountain, and a double rainbow attended his birth. But for all that, he spent decades laying the groundwork to succeed his father, and even then many months passed before it was clear that Mr Kim was truly in command. The next succession will be trickier. That may explain why the jingoistic volume is now being cranked up, to show that Mr Kim has army support for his plans. In turn, senior commanders will be enjoying nuclear prestige.


Yet at the same time, it does not want to hear regional demands, especially from Japan, for stronger anti-missile defences or other weaponry that would undermine its military clout. American diplomats will point out to China that by putting a curb on Mr Kim they could help the United States reassure its ally, Japan, and help damp down any alarming talk of its rearming.

But the main diplomatic action has moved for now to the UN Security Council. North Korea's actions have been met with unanimous condemnation. Japan, within range of the North's missiles, is pushing hardest for punitive sanctions on top of the existing ones that have failed to bite. Indeed, sanctions agreed after Mr Kim's 2006 test were never fully implemented, after China managed to coax North Korea back into talks.

That policy has now been shown to have failed, though China still claims that negotiations provide the only solution. It has given no hint that it is prepared to punish its ally with anything more than a scolding. If so, others may take stronger action. America has in the past shown that financial sanctions on banks that deal with North Korea can cause both them and Mr Kim massive inconvenience.

As The Economist went to press, the Security Council was meeting behind closed doors to discuss a possible new resolution on North Korea. It is not certain what more can be done by way of sanctions, nor how firmly these could be implemented, even if they were agreed. Meanwhile, most members of the six-party process will want to make clear to North Korea that the door remains open to it, however much it wants to slam it shut.