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Three Charts Your Stockbroker Won't Want You To See

Tyler Durden's picture


While every long-only manager and jobbing stockbroker is hard at work twisting the simple logic of 'but, but Central Banks will print and save the world' into a much more appetizing 'US decoupling, cleanest-shirt, ignore Europe, earnings, profits, money-on-the-sidelines' euphemism, we note that the following three charts from UBS suggest that things are not quite as rosy as one might believe - whether or not Ben speaks monetarily this week. Between consensus growth expectations rolling over, the analyst upgrade/downgrade ratio turning negative once again, and recent changes in US growth remain positively ecstatic relative to global/regional changes; it would appear hope is a powerful (and hallucinatory) drug (as is QE kool-aid).

The progression of consensus earnings growth estimates is rolling over for 2012 and stalling for 2013...

and the upgrade/downgrade ratio is turning back down (less upgrades than downgrades) and changing trend...

and the US remains an extremely optimistic unch over the past 3 months for its earnings growth forecast change relative to considerable drops among most of the world's economies...


So while the hopes and prayers that 'fundamentals are a figment of everyone's imagination and the only thing that matters is central banking largesse' remains, the next time you hear someone trying to spin some fundamental earnings growth basis for buying-and-holding now, slap them gently and tell them to stop deny-deny-deny abnegation and admit they are as addicted as the rest of the market to the elixir of nominal equity strength - the central bank printing button.

Source: UBS


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Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:29 | 2536922 Ahmeexnal
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Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:33 | 2536938 5880
5880's picture

What's a "stockbroker"?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:36 | 2536946 hedgeless_horseman
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What's a "stockbroker"?

They make money the old fashioned way, they churn it.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:38 | 2536961 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

looks simi bullish!

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:31 | 2537120 Precious
Precious's picture

My broker at Lehman says to go 100% long in the country called GEM.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:34 | 2537330 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Obamney will save us, Wall St. stooge or thug doesn't really matter.  Both love Uncle Ben, the lender and printer of last resort.  Print to prosparity!  Zimbabwenomics for everyone.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 17:12 | 2537457 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Q: why are stock brokers called brokers?


A: because they are broke. broker than you to own anything.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:20 | 2537287 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Where are their clients' yachts?".

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:34 | 2537332 Ms. Erable
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After incredulously looking at Mr Travers for a moment, the queried gentleman responded, "Muppets don't like water".

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:57 | 2537396 AlamoJack
AlamoJack's picture

Actually he said "The Muppets are UNDER the WATER"

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 17:13 | 2537463 AldousHuxley
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"For psychologists like me the world of finance is very interesting, if only in purely clinical terms. You're a CEO and you pay yourself £8m. Now, look at the kind of organisation you need to put in place in order to make that amount … It's almost dirty.

"It gets more interesting still when your company has failed on a range of issues, and at the end of the year you still pay yourself those £8m. There's an outcry but you say: 'it's in my contract'. Now, take a step back, how has that £8m become so important to you that you can't even see why you shouldn't get them? Apparently your need for the money is so strong you stop registering the anger you provoke.

"Those CEOs and managing directors at banks with their millions … They deserve our pity, really. They are the victims of their own twisted minds. And it will bring them down. Whether you are a paedophile or pervert or control freak or psychopath; sooner or later a twisted mind will turn on itself.


amoral bordering on the immoral


"It's almost a perversion. The CEOs such as Fred Goodwin and Jamie Dimon and the like. They present themselves as to the outside world as posh and erudite and sophisticated; as supermen. But they are just like you and me, with similar needs and fears. We shouldn't fall for their spiel. .......they are not worth millions

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 23:16 | 2538378 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Muppets cannot swim.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:24 | 2537301 BeetleBailey
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MillionDollarDouchebag loves his broker! He has his on speed dial. Cell block D - Inmate #243-78095 - Shifty La Put.

He churned him some Fartbook - and look! FaceFuck is up today!

MillionLicksofBernanke'sDick is only down $15,000.00 now!

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:36 | 2536949 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Howard Sterns take on the above 3 charts:

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:50 | 2537177 flacon
flacon's picture

"I'd make more money playing fucking bingo!" LOL!

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:38 | 2536951 bdc63
bdc63's picture

"What's a stockbroker?"

Do a google search on the "Doo Doo Bird" (or alternately, "House Flipping"), and you'll get some idea.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:59 | 2537018 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Note also that, according to Dilbert, "prospectus" is a Latin word that means "Close your eyes and open your mouth."

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:24 | 2537300 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Excellent! And along those lines...


Dogbert: Now the first thing you need to understand is that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Client: OK. So what's your investment strategy?

Dogbert: I'm going to take all your money and buy myself a luxury condo in Cancun.

Client: Has that strategy ever worked before?

Dogbert: Jeez, it's like I'm talking to a wall here!


Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:39 | 2536962 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

A Stockbroker is someone who gets fools to easily part with their money with the use of advanced degree, reporting of profit and loss statements that are fraduulent, and with the backing of the media, corporations, and pure ignorance.  They resemble reptiles in many facets and enjoy raping and pillaging based on lies and theft.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:53 | 2536996 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Or, to put it in a simpler form, a stockbroker is someone who gets wealthier while you get broker.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:55 | 2537007 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Very thorough definition. +1

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:59 | 2537406 AlamoJack
AlamoJack's picture

Whut?? We don't need no stinkin' degree. HAHAHAHA! We don't even need a gun.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:55 | 2537006 Cupid Stunt
Cupid Stunt's picture

What's global economic growth ?

Oh sorry, CTRL + PRINT.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:07 | 2537217 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

5880 Asked:  "What's a 'stockbroker'?"

Stockbrokers use your money to buy high and sell low, their commission is made regardless, and unrelated to the performance of your "portfolio".

BTW - a "portfolio" is a slush fund for stock market gamblers, re-hypothecators, and CORZINES.

Decades of propaganda have led people to believe that stocks have something to do with "saving" and "investing" and that nebulous reality termed "retirement". 

Non-stop commercials of fishing, touring Europe, starting a vineyard, and sitting on the porch versus greeting EBT card holders at WalMart and standing in line at the food bank.

So far the ponzi is functioning perfectly; just keep voting for someone, watching television, and "investing" in the "free markets."  Your stockbroker will thank you.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:20 | 2537291 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

Buying stocks made me broker than last year.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 21:25 | 2538038 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

"Stockbroker": Sells you stocks that make you broker.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 23:15 | 2538374 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

401K mutual fund Money Manager?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:54 | 2537005 Silver Bug
Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:34 | 2536926 bdc63
bdc63's picture

What? ... people are actually talking about "earnings growth"? ... Seriously? 

I must be hanging out with the wrong crowd.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:31 | 2536931 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

With all the respect in the world...these charts would be great and useful if the markets corresponded to the economy. It's all backwards now. The ratings agencies will start upgrading based on bailouts awarded and debt ceilings being raised.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:37 | 2536937 bdc63
bdc63's picture

that pretty much sums up the entire US economy for the past 5 years ...

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:32 | 2536934 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I think most analyst pundits are fully aware of this earnings slow-down.  That will not keep them from pitching P/E plays (re AAPL) to the public and their clients.  

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:50 | 2536989 adr
adr's picture

Yes because the 90 P/E stocks fell to the high 70s. THEY ARE NOW SCREAMING BUYS!!!!

Because everyone knows a low P/E is now 100. Multinational corporations are getting ready to shed the bonds of planet Earth and go Galactic. UNLIMITED POTENTIAL!!!!!

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:42 | 2537144 walküre
walküre's picture

Actually I've come to realize that the higher the P/E, the more manipulated the stock is.

Good solid companies with low P/E get discarded and neglected because they're not gamed.

Investing in stocks is for useful idiots and more and more muppets are seeing the light and packing their bags.

Who wants to be a useful idiot?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:38 | 2536956 carbonmutant
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I believe this is called consolidation...

If we're going sideways here it might be a good opportunity to sell PUTs

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:42 | 2536970 hedgeless_horseman
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...or CALLs, considering this is Zero Hedge.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:37 | 2536957 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

What do earnings have to do with gaming equities?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:39 | 2536966 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Get in there and turn those machines back on! Sell, sell, sell!

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:40 | 2536969 jomama
jomama's picture

why slap them 'gently'?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:41 | 2536971 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

i used to be a stockbroker but now im just broker

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:47 | 2536984 Pladizow
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Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:41 | 2536973 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Nobody wants to sell until the Bernanker has spoken.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:45 | 2536979 kralizec
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I think this is correct...waiting for Obi-Ben Bernanke to influence the weak-minded...proper shearing to follow.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:56 | 2537009 epwpixieq-1
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Bernanker will do, and sell they will (at some point of course).

Is is truly amazing to see how so many are waiting on so few ( well connected ) to say "if the sun will shine tomorrow again". And after this fact, no one should question, do the people waiting believe in God. As for sure they DO.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:42 | 2536975 skepticCarl
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With the emerging markets beginning to rally, I expect the large multi-nationals that dominate the U.S. stock market indicies to continue their rallies as well.  Profits don't have to improve hardly at all; they only have to hold up, which I think that they will, as the non-European world goes about it's daily business of growing and thriving.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:44 | 2536978 fonzannoon
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Carl you don't sound like much of a skeptic.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 21:15 | 2538011 Unique Snowflake
Unique Snowflake's picture

He's skeptical of reality.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:50 | 2536981 adr
adr's picture

Today is another most hated stock ramp day. Anyone want to take a look at airline rates and think people are going to travel? Doesn't hurt Priceline though. Tickets that were $250 are now $500, Priceline soars.

Fucking Facebook is on a tear. Lulu, CMG, all the greatest hits are at least 2% gainers for no apparent reason other than, "THE ECONOMY SUCKS, MORE STIMULUS"

Apple announces they are going to give their shitty employees at Apple stores a raise and the stock soars. I thought paying employees more is supposed to tank a stock because it means less profit. OH YEAH I FORGOT, everyone will work at an Apple store and buy Apple shit, ECONOMIC PROBLEMS SOLVED!!!!

We will never have a correction because the Fed will just step in and buy stocks, causing all the momo traders to buy so they don't miss an uptick rally. I'm having fun looking at all the parabolic 2 day charts. It's like praising the picture the neighbors retard gives you.


That is the only fundamental left in the market. Not missing a rally. Doesn't matter if it's bullshit. At least oil didn't go to $90 today, doesn't matter because gas is still selling for the same price as it was when oil was $105.

Either the insiders already know QE3 is going to be $2 trillion or they are really, really, stupid. I still don't get why stocks would take off before the money is handed out. Wouldn't you want to profit more off the free cash? Driving stocks up just makes it more expensive to buy more shares with Benny Bux.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:01 | 2537022 gjp
gjp's picture

True that.  Friday and today have seen melt-ups on all the mo-mo favourites, on half normal volume.  Is it going to play this way all the way to the grand utterings of Banana Ben?  Sadly, it probably will.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:09 | 2537048 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Don't be so sure about that travel stat. Your stockbroker might not want you to see this if you're still short...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 14:29 | 2540290 AustriAnnie
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1) Its possible many Americans who used to do summer vacations in Europe are now staying in the U.S.

2) The ADR/RevPAR/Occupancy measures are stats of hotels still in business, no?  They ignore the fact that when X% of hotels have gone under during the recession, this may show a slight increase in stats for the others, since the outlying low-occupancy and low-ADR hotels are now not included in the figure.  Also, hotel guests who were at a failing hotel now transfer their business to other hotels. 

(Therefore ADR and occupancy RATES may go up, but the total number of hotel rooms sold in the U.S. could go down, and revenues not look anything like pre-recession levels)

I want to see a comparison of industry revenues pre and post recession.  If a Courtyard by Marriott closed and the business transferred to another Marriott brand, is this an improvement in Marriott's bottom line?  No, but the stats suggest that the occupancy and ADR increased!

3) How many Americans are starting to spend again thinking that the economy is going to roar back and their home's value will skyrocket?  What happens if/when they experience a return to frugality?  (especially as food and gas prices rise in response to the next round of QE?)

4) Smith Travel Research.  Who are their clients?  Hotels.  Something to keep in mind...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 14:32 | 2540297 AustriAnnie
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5)  Are the ADR comparisons in nominal terms?   Or do they factor in the effects of a few QE's?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:48 | 2537165 walküre
walküre's picture

Markets are gamed. There's nothing to invest in. FB is gamed and shorts are squeezed. That's a pretty obvious play. So much attention and heat on that crapola of a story. They've lost the IPO charade for good. IPOs are being cancelled all over the world. Markets are dead.

Nobody is shorting oil which is why oil is not flying higher. Because the economy sucks and oil is too expensive even at $80 for a decent recovery.

The insiders are just playing with machines. Retail is still out and won't come back.

I'm seriously starting to doubt that any QE announcement would lift spirits either. Too late, too many have caught on and it doesn't help the economy.

Austerity and pain are coming and that's what the bond market is saying for a while.

Money talks bullshit walks. Bonds are money. Stocks are bullshit.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:47 | 2537372 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture



I agree, money talks and bullshit walks. Your definition of money is innacurate, however. Anything vaugely related to or connected to fiat currency is bullshit. Silver and gold are money. Tangibles are stores of wealth, not one's and zero's in some computer somewhere. Paper investments are worth exactly the paper they are printed on.  Austerity is not coming to the US. Never will happen. The powers that be will print the dollar out of viability long before they even consider austerity measures. The US has enjoed a nice long run as the world reserve currency. Nothing lasts forever, though.

? Frank Zappa

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:47 | 2536982 Jason T
Jason T's picture

do a year over year % change ...  wage growth, nominal, up only .9% and under 1% for the first time in at least 60 years.. and going down.


we could be in for declines in nominal wages of production workers very soon...forget real wages, they are already going down.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:53 | 2537001 adr
adr's picture

Wages are so last century. THIS CENTURY IS ALL ABOUT PAPER GAINS!!!!

Use your credit card to buy stock, stock doubles in two months, money problems solved!!!!!


Uncle Benny will show us the way.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:47 | 2536983 Jason T
Jason T's picture




Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:49 | 2536987 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no soup for you!

why should the central banksters issue any more manna than is needed? 

especially when people want to be paid to take on credit;  like a war bond:  3% 

debt sucks;  radically;   slap them as hard as you want!  punch their fuking lights out and tell them:  no soup for you!

markets love that action while they are in the hospital in traction and body casts...

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:53 | 2536997 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The hell with these charts.  Women have slowed down their shoe purchases!!!!  If that isn't a recessionary indicator there's no such thing. 

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:56 | 2537010 adr
adr's picture

If you listen to Robotrader they stopped buying shoes so they could have more money to spend at ULTA.


In the real world nobody is buying anything. Malls are ghost towns, Sears cashiers tell you they sell about $120 a day. But corporate profits have ever been better. Either people are sneaking in when nobody can see them and buying billions in merchandise, or the corporate books are full of shit.

What is your money on?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:37 | 2537134 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

if the same goes for stylists, makeup & chocolate-----------look out below.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:55 | 2537003 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

3-year yield in Germany is 10 b.p.


3-year yield in the U.S. is 38 b.p.

Johnson & Johnson, which I recommended last week pays a 368 b.p. yield and is up 5 days in a row, and could be the next Dow stock to make world record lifetime highs.

Any wonder why stocks are doing so well?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:01 | 2537021 adr
adr's picture

at least Johnson is a well run corporation and actually makes marketable and profitable products, unlike most of the garbage you spew on a daily basis.

It was very funny that you were gone for most of the last month when stocks weren't doing well. But once the low volume benny bux rampfest started, you are here to tell everyone about how well the momo trades are doing.

If I step in shit, I try to clean it off. You are the asshole that tracks it all over the house ruining the carpet.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:09 | 2537252 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

If I had bought 1000 shares of JNJ in 2001 for $60 each, it would have to be worth $77,000 right now just to have kept up with inflation. And its not even close.

But, if I had taken the same $60,000 and purchased gold in 2001, I'd have about $370,000 in value, right now.

Glad I bought some gold, and glad I sold that JNJ.



Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:54 | 2537183 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

not a bad defensive/long call for the actual markets, R_T

thiis company has pricing power in its distro channels and may benefit from lower prices in very basic supplies;  at least it usta and it plays like it still does

cyclically we don't get here very often;  the recoveries are faster and we skip some of this, imo

this time is different

this ain't lulu_robo talkin...  this robo's divident stock from the Dow30!

talk about showin yer ass?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:56 | 2537200 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

"Any wonder why stocks are doing so well?" Um.. because there is an obvious correlation between your "day after" predictions and the ^DJI rising.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:57 | 2537011 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Will I be arrested if I slap my broker?

Why isn't he arrested for the fraud they are committing in complicity with Bubbles Bernanke?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:12 | 2537058 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Dead men tell no tales

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:57 | 2537012 Zola
Zola's picture

Bernanke has bankrupted everyone, this fucking clown.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:58 | 2537014 Jake88
Jake88's picture

I want to see the QE charts.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 14:59 | 2537017 sockratte
sockratte's picture

maybe the higgs-boson can save the world

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:05 | 2537036 adr
adr's picture

The Higgs-boson is like a clean accounting ledger. Everyone believes it exists and billions are spent on the pursuit of it. Yet nobody will ever find it, because it isn't really there.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:09 | 2537051 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Just cause you feel it , doesn't mean it's there

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:28 | 2537034 razorthin
razorthin's picture

If you must park your money, and for whatever reason physical assets are not an option for you, then do so in emerging markets (if you can somehow exclude China).

And what do the transports know today that the rest of the equity market doesn't?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:11 | 2537057 q99x2
q99x2's picture


Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:16 | 2537076 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...Suicide Vampire Squid Jones of the Pimp Dealer Broker in the jungle is a strange one in deed.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:22 | 2537095 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

John Houseman Bitchezz

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 15:47 | 2537161 billsykes
billsykes's picture

Stockbrokers are the lowest form of life- makes stereo and used car salesmen look like saints. 

Whats the worst a best buy guy can do to you? sell you a underpowered stereo? the add on warranty? big deal. Used car guy maybe sells you a car overpriced a couple of grand. Big picture- not going to take you down.

On the other hand a stockbroker can screw up your retirement plans permanently, needlessly expose you to risk well over 100% of your investment. Make you as broke as when you were in College.

The ones I have met and spoken with, I had to take a shower after.



Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:08 | 2537244 localpacific
localpacific's picture

Stock brokers are typically scum but there is some hope for the S&P 500 Month End Review 

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:09 | 2537254 Umh
Umh's picture

Help me out. What is GEM in the chart?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:11 | 2537259 BurgundianRon
BurgundianRon's picture

My stock broker gave me a great tip, so I bought the stock. Two weeks later the stock was up 20% and he said "it's got room to run", so I bought a shitload more! Low and behold he was right and the stock went up another 20%! This time he said "This things got legs and is only beginning it's real trend higher", so I bet it all! The stock only went up another 10% this time and I got a bit nervous with my life savings on the table so I called and told my broker to sell. This time he said "to who"?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:13 | 2537267 deflator
deflator's picture


 Not so much addicted to the central bank printing button as much as trying to protect myself from it.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 16:39 | 2537347 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

I got my Series 7 back in 1990. I hated being called a "stockbroker", and from day #1, thought of myself as an adviser. Bought and sold stocks unsolicited from my growing client list as a loss leader: doing it for cost and no commission. Offered and actively managed mutual funds - and when I was recruited by a national firm, went with them to work directly FOR my clients.

They pay me directly - no conflict of interest. No selling. No bullshit. They hire me - I am responsible for their holdings.

The quintessential question for every newly minted broker is this;

"Now, it's what's right for you, vs. what's right for your clients."

My Father said that to me when I called him to tell him I passed the 7.

Those words rang in my ear each time I sat across the table/desk from a client. Still do.

Too bad most don't get that said to them - and by someone of honor.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 20:30 | 2537923 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

We are a long way from a collapse. We have Bernanke who will print money till it absolutely becomes a serious problem. e.g bond market collapse, and even then he will print more to buy the debt of the US.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 00:42 | 2538568 insidious
insidious's picture

I think its because they sell stock and make you broker.
