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Why AAP is not very popular with India Inc

February 14, 2014 10:08 IST


Dear Mr Kejriwal,


Martin Luther King fought for the empowerment of blacks. 


Nelson Mandela led South Africa to freedom from white rule. 


Now, that you have launched a successful assault on the corruption-infested leadership of the BJP and Congress - and the regional parties with their own known chieftains of theft - it is time to ask the questions: Are you in the same league as a Jayaprakash Narayan? Can you carry what you have done in one city-state to a country searching for an honest alternative? Will you complete what was started in 1979? 

The enemy outside


With the astounding rise of the Aam Aadmi Party in New Delhi and your recent election as the Chief Minister, the talk show hosts on the 24x7 rubbish that pose as "news" channels are in utter disarray. They can now claim to be in competition with the Cartoon Network: the discussions are even more directionless and amusing than before the birth of the AAP as a political force. 

It is laughable to see representatives of the BJP twisting your success by claiming that you took "support" from the Congress. And it is hilarious to see them questioning why you gave water to only 5% of New Delhi and suggesting that you should build pipelines within 48 hours of your assuming office to fulfill your election promises. Behind the mocking laughter of the BJP lies a growing mountain of fear.

Their desire to move Modi from Gujarat to Ramlila has been usurped by an upstart. The BJP's access to sympathetic monetary and intellectual capital from within and outside India, including assistance with Obama-like strategies on the social media has failed to break a response beyond the limited borders of the virtual world. 




You are not a creation of their corporate funded and sponsored advertorials that they call "news". 




Having owned state and national governments and having had access to national and natural resources at will, any "people's will" is branded as a threat of Naxalism to urban Indian readers.


In 1979, Mrs Indira Gandhi, the Mother of 90 per cent of India's problems, lifted the Emergency and announced a general election. Though below the voting age, I was inspired by the public rallies and speeches of Jayaprakash Narayan. There was the possibility of a "free and just" India. 



The spoils of war have increased manifold. Look at the theft of coal, iron ore, oil and gas, real estate and spectrum. The Congress still argues over "presumed loss" and "actual loss".




From weak links in the lengthening chain of an evolving revolution. 

The danger is within

The Aam Aadmi Party's plank of fighting corruption and working for the people will win you many volunteers. Yet, as you grow the organization across many cities, it is this very successful people's response to AAP which poses its biggest danger. 

When a successful, small business tries to grow national it needs to "scale up". 
Any such "scale up" requires money and the delegation of authority to a few existing people who now have a larger organization to manage - and must do so within the same inspirational spirit that saw the first success. 

Building a larger organization also requires the ability to select new people at senior levels. And when a new person joins from "outside", there is the tendency of those who are already close to you to jealously guard their positions. That is a human weakness. 


So Tata Steel and Tata Motors were seen to be run by high caliber men of high integrity. Tata Chemicals and Indian Hotelswere perceived to be different. Being a Tata group company no longer carried the same symbol of consistency and integrity.


Think BJP and its range of leaders: some are seen as honest simpletons while others are seen as outright ‘chors’.





Think Congress and the dynastic rule. 

While even the good corporates such as Tata, HDFC, and Infosys can survive inconsistencies, a political party based on a people's movement cannot. 

A loyalty to a company from its investor base, its followers, is built on its ability to generate profits. Most investors don't care about how that money was made. A quick glance at the wealthiest people in India and how they are worshipped by the media will show you that.


But a political party based on a people's movement - by its very definition - needs to be based on a quality that binds, that retains its purity, and is never diluted as it flows across the country. 

Succession Planning

Every revolution needs to move beyond its initial leader, eventually. 



And your success could make you even more vulnerable. 



You need to demonstrate AAP has a coherent team and - in stock market parlance - has depth, breadth, and resiliency. 


AAP needs to have a large number of people with varying backgrounds - with consistent and constant moral character - who are good at various things and can run an administration and govern a country. 


Names of people who will take over the roles of those who may no longer be around in case of "eventualities" need to be known. 

Policies and Programmes...and the Sensex. 

There is a clamour for making sure that AAP makes known its policies and its stand on various issues: Pakistan, nuclear power, inflation, economic growth, subsidies, taxes...and the appointment of the next Chairman of SEBI. 

Your detractors have argued that corruption cannot be the only plank on which to fight a national election. They don't get it. 

As you have indicated, a group of honest people - not influenced by any lobbyists or a need to deliver a pre-determined outcome to political funders - can reach good conclusions. 



(By the way, when you get a chance, please have a meeting with AMFI - the association that looks after the interests of the manufacturers of Mutual Funds. I am sure you will find them a fascinating group of people who defend the indefensible!) 

Meanwhile, in case you are one of the few remaining retail investors in the Indian stock markets and wish to know what the Sensex will do in 2014, here is a quick view:

If Modi wins the election then a 25,000 Index level is likely,

If Modi loses the election then a 17,000 Index level is likely.

Note there is no Index level based on what AAP does. So, with the markets currently at the 21,000 level there is a lot riding on what you will do in the next few weeks. The Modi watchers are anxiously waiting for your next moves and the Modi-backers are probably planning a few fun challenges for you.

From a stock market perspective, the Congress will have a fairly quiet 2014. Translated into layman's language, it seems that the market is predicting that the First Family of the Congress will be the Last Family of the Congress and will be celebrating Christmas in December 2014 somewhere in Italy.

But we have 365 days in this year and, as has often been said, a day is a lifetime in politics. 

Well, I must let you get on with your mission. 

I wish you all the best in your incredible journey and I wish the support for AAP grows and AAP stays true to what you have started. 

With Regards,

Ajit Dayal

The writer is Founder, Equitymaster. 

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Ajit Dayal