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Is John Howard trying to be Australia's George Bush?

May 2, 2003

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The PM may be looking to imitate the US President's successful political formula, writes Louise Dodson.

Now that the war in Iraq is over, John Howard is being bombarded with a George Bush charm offensive.

The last Australian prime minister to go to Texas was Bob Hawke, when George's dad was president.

Hawke was feted by the rich rancher friends of George Bush senior and thoroughly enjoyed the wild west. Instead of formal banquets there were "cook-outs", the Texan equivalent of barbecues, and plenty of stuffed animal heads displayed as hunting trophies testifying to the hobbies of the he-men at the ranch.

But along with the barbecues and the bonhomie over the next couple of days, George Bush junior has a serious message for John Howard: stick with us as we police the world to combat terrorism and as we become the world's only ultra-power.

Howard has been careful not to use the "v" words - for victorious and vindicated - after the "coalition of the willing" crushed Saddam Hussein's regime. But all the words he has been using suggest that is exactly how he feels. He was on the winning side, up there with Bush and Tony Blair; he was correct about the duration and success of the war, as well as the Iraqi support for the aggressors; his critics, including the ALP, were wrong; and most importantly, Australia did not suffer casualties.

So now the invitation to stay at George Bush's private ranch in Texas is a reward for such consistent and unstinting support for the US actions against Iraq.

The PM has already told Bush, on a previous visit, that Australia is the best friend the United States ever had. He's already given all the support for the war against Iraq that Australia was capable of mustering. So what's next? What more could Howard possibly offer?

The next phase in the evolving relationship between the two countries and the two men will be far more complicated. Howard essentially made a decision almost two years ago, after the September 11 attacks, to support the US strongly in its campaign to stop further terrorism - including fighting Saddam. Publicly he refused actually to make the decision to back the US against Iraq, so as to keep his options open. But effectively he had decided long ago to support Bush's "war on terror" in whatever way Australia could.

Tony Blair has partly sought to justify his wholehearted support for the US over Iraq by arguing it was better to be on the inside influencing the coalition than on the outside. And he certainly pushed hard for the US to try to get United Nations approval for military action against Iraq.

Australia, as a small country not part of any bloc, obviously had little hope of influencing the coalition as it planned action against Iraq. Howard was just happy to be part of the inner circle.

In the postwar phase, there is more potential for differences between the US and Australia.

First, there is the question of troops in postwar Iraq. The US wants the maximum commitment of troops, while Australia worries about the cost - financial and political - and whether such a commitment would strain its military capability.

Second, there are sure to be commercial and trade conflicts as US and Australian companies scramble for business opportunities in rebuilding Iraq. There has already been some chest-beating by Australia over fears US farm subsidies will be used to pinch our Iraq wheat market.

Third, there will be differences over the role of the UN in postwar Iraq.

So far the US and Britain have strongly disagreed on its role, with Bush wanting it limited to humanitarian assistance and Blair pushing for a political and reconstruction role as well. Australia's position is in the middle, say senior Government sources, but tending to be closer to that of Blair.

But the issue with by far the most potential for difficulty is how the US conducts itself as the new super-duper power in the post-Iraq era. How it treats Syria and Saudi Arabia - countries seen as harbouring Saddam regime members - how it treats the UN and how it treats the "axis of evil" countries Iran and North Korea will be important signposts to the new US view of the world.

Although not on the official agenda of the talks with Bush, the subject of reform of the UN is likely to emerge. Howard wants the Security Council opened up and modernised to include greater representation from Asia and new representation from South America and a Muslim country. He is pushing a new three-tier structure to include non-permanent members such as Japan, Brazil, India, Germany and Indonesia.

The end of the Iraq war presents Howard with an opportunity to broaden the political appeal of the concept of national security.

Already private Liberal Party polling has shown high anxiety is now the norm in Australian society. Now, added to terrorism, Australians have SARS and "alternative" medicines to worry about. It all means people are looking for security and strength of leadership.

The Government's plan will be to rerun its successful 2001 election strategy, with a broader focus on security at home and abroad. This will include reference to the tough anti-terrorism legislation that has already been rejected by Labor in the Senate, and to economic security based on raising fears that Labor MPS are spendthrifts who can't be trusted to preserve the healthy economy. Bush's popularity has soared on this formula. Any tips for John while you are passing the ribs, George?

Louise Dodson is chief political correspondent of The Age.



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