Extreme Cold Weather in Europe a Clear Consequences of Climate Change

Shehu Khaleel | Apr 03, 2012

Bitterly cold weather sweeping across Europe claimed more victims, brought widespread disruption to transport services, and left thousands without power with warnings that low temperatures would continue into next week.

Hundreds have lost their lives in Eastern Europe as freezing weather sweeps across the continent westwards, while major airports warned that services would be delayed or cancelled.

A state of emergency was declared in Bosnia after the cold snap claimed its seventh victim, and avalanches and strong winds cut off hundreds of villages in eastern parts. A friend called me from Warsaw knowing me as a true climate change advocate, saying we have failed, because of we believe in global warming and now the globe is freezing!

I immediately answered him with a proof of what he has known and watched recently in a sciences documentary, which shows polar bears drowning, because after long swims they cannot find a solid piece of ice to get onto and rest without that ice breaking from under them.

Is Global Warming Really Happening?

So many people have been saying to me over the past few weeks that how can people be talking about climate change and global warming when this year and last year we've had such snow as hasn't been seen in these parts for years.


It always fascinates me that people never want to believe the scientists when it comes to global warming, but they trust the scientists (doctors) who will do brain surgery or heart transplants.

When the global warming “side” said, it will cause floods in some places, we have witnessed it does actually in Australia, Newzeland, Pakistan and many other countries, many people died, billions of dollars lost. They said it will cause droughts in other part of the globe and it does. The global warming side said trees in the Amazon will start to die causing wild fire and it does. The polar ice caps will melt, changing the circulation of the jet stream, the Gulf Stream, and other global climate regulators and it is now happening.

Of course, the fact that we're having some really cold weather with plenty of snow doesn't contradict global warming. Global warming is a climate change effect that can cause many types of weather anomaly, and an overall increase in global temperature doesn’t have to cause locally warmer weather only, it’s a bit more complex than that.

Role of global warming!

NASA and NOAA plus research centers around the world track the global average temperature, and all conclude that Earth is warming. In fact, the past decade has been found to be the hottest since scientists started recording reliable data in the 1880s. These rising temperatures are caused primarily by an increase of heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere created when we burn coal, oil, and gas to generate electricity, drive our cars, and fuel our businesses. Hotter air around the globe causes more water evaporation, which fuels heavier precipitation in the form of more intense rain and snow storms.

At the same time, because less of a region’s precipitation is falling in light storms and more of it in heavy storms, the risks of drought and wildfire are also greater. Ironically, higher air temperatures tend to produce intense drought periods punctuated by heavy floods, often in the same region. To have one bad winter may be considered a misfortune, to have two on the run could be construed as a pattern. In fact, what we are experiencing now is well within the bounds of natural variability, even in a globally warmer world. There are undoubtedly many other complications that have combined to give us a bitterly cold December. The first is a “blocking high” pressure in the North Atlantic that has sent our mild westerlies, and surprisingly balmy weather, to Greenland. Another is the possibility that we are entering a cooler phase of the climatic oscillation of the North Atlantic, when the usual pattern of low pressure over Greenland and high pressure over the Azores breaks down. A final complication is what’s happening in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the “La Nina” sea current is entering a 20-year high of activity. However, the work by Vladimir Petoukhov and Professor Stefan Rahmstorf makes a remarkable prediction based on the loss of Arctic sea ice. We could be seeing colder winters than normal precisely because the Arctic is getting warmer.

The Arctic connection

Arctic sea ice has been in retreat over recent decades, with record lows recorded in September 2007. The normal recovery of the sea ice during winter has also been affected, especially in the Barents and Kara seas which have seen significant losses of ice cover over the past decade.

Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of physics of the oceans at the Potsdam Institute, said the floating sea ice in winter insulates the relatively warm seawater from the bitterly cold temperatures of the air above it, which can be around -20C or -30C.

"The Arctic sea ice is shrinking and at the moment it is at a record low, which provides a big heat source for the atmosphere," Professor Rahmstorf said. "The open ocean actually heats the atmosphere above because the ocean in the Arctic is about 0C, and that's much warmer than the atmosphere above it. This is a massive change compared with an ice-covered ocean, where the ice operates like a lid. You don't get that heating from below.

"The model simulations show that, when you don't get ice on the Barents and Kara seas, that promotes the formation of a high-pressure system there, and, because the airflow is clockwise around the high, it brings cold, polar air right into Europe, which leads to cold conditions here while it is unusually warm elsewhere, especially in the Arctic," he explained.

The overall warming of the northern hemisphere due to global warming causes losses in Arctic sea ice which causes regional heating of lower levels of air which in turn causes anomalies in atmospheric airstreams causing an overall cooling effect in high latitude countries.


It is high time to believe that the threat of climate change, caused by rising global temperatures, is the most significant environmental challenge facing the world. It has major implications for the world’s social and economic stability, its natural resources and in particular, the way we produce our energy. In order to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, the global temperature increase must be kept as far below 2°C as possible. This is still possible, but time is running out. To stay within this limit, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to be downsized this would be realize with more investment on clean Renewable energy. We need to significantly reduce the global investment of fossil fuel sources of energy.

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The original article was written and posted in January. Hence the part of its content refered to that period. Readers should please take note. Thanks

Mother Nature has been doing an experiment now millions of years old on the effects of removing massive quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere and converting it to Carbon and Oxygen and it is time we stop this misguided experimentation. Gaia’s storage of carbon directly as coal pales by comparison with her rather blatant and continued storage of C02 in carbonates. She must be stopped before she brings a cataclysm upon us all. Burning coal to free its carbon and from C02 may help but as humans we should do more. We need to combine the exothermic coal reaction with the endothermic calcining of limestone to foil her evil plot and return C02 to the atmosphere from where it came before her experimentation causes another mass extinction like the tragic Ices ages she has already facilitated during this callous experiment.

According to Mathew Huber Antarctica was ice free until around 35 million years ago when the ice sheets rapidly formed. Antarctica had been Ice free for at least 100 million years previous to this time. According to Huber the likely culprit was loss of C02 in the atmosphere. The earth had been a warm wet planet then the planet cooled killing off almost all amphibians and reptiles along with many mammal species. It is time to do the right thing and reverse this sadistic cooling trend. We need to stop the uncontrolled sequestration of CO2 by these random natural forces and restore order and the previous balance to our world.

If we will not undertake the needed action for ourselves we should think of the children and all the generations to follow and do it for them. Are we so egotistical as to destine future generations to try to survive in a frozen world due to our current apathy when we could act now and prevent the almost certain coming cataclysm of another global freeze by an Ice Age.

Ok enough satire, first yes global warming is real and has been for at least 10,000 years. The author seems to present this as the issue but that is not, the issue is how much, if any, additional warming is caused by human activity and then more specifically how much of that is directly related to the production of CO2 by the burning of fossil fuels of which coal is the poster child. I fail to see the value of misrepresenting all planetary warming as CO2 induced. Yes glaciers are retreating as are ice sheets, yes it sucks to be polar bear.

Science is not dogma, to quote Dr. Ivar Giaever, a former professor with Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and the 1973 winner of the Nobel Prize in physics in his resignation from the physics society in disgust over its official policy that "global warming is occurring" and “the evidence is incontrovertible”


It really does not matter anyway whatever cataclysm CO2 might possibly entail will happen. The US position as the number one GHG emitter is fading it will be the second or third behind China and probably India in few years.

Anyway the article seems to incorrectly connect all Global warming to anthropogenic warming. Doing this is misleading and rather simplistic.

The research of the Climate Laboratory at East Anglia University suggested the theory that CO2 caused global warming . . . . a theory that they have since recanted. Their recorded average temperature measurements from 1997 onward show little, if any new evidence of global warming.

There are a variety of other factors that can cause weather patterns to change, some even related to cyclical solar activity. With regard to Northern Europe, part of the warm North Atlantic Current flows into the Barents Sea, with some water flowing into the Kara Sea and some flowing into the Greenland Current . . . the rest flows out of the Bering Strait and into the Kamchatka Current.

A change in the behaviour of the North Atlantic Current could bring about a change in Northern European weather . . . a change in the percentage of water that flows south into the Canary Current and northwest into the Greenland Current has the potential to affect that weather. The El Nino and La NIna effects in the Pacific Ocean involve periodic/cyclical changes in ocean currents that affect weather patterns acoss the Americas . . . this has happened over a period of centuries.

With regard to power generation, changing weather patterns will affect wind power and hydroelectric power generation. Nations adversely affected by changing weather patterns may be well advised to generate electric more electric power from sources that are less affected by weather, including building new nuclear power stations away from coastal regions that are prone to tidal waves and tsunami's

"The road to hell ... is paved... with BTU's." CMJ

As an engineer I know that energy is conserved. If a BTU is released into the environment, it must have a warming effect. Now a single BTU by itself is insignificant but civilization releases an unbelievable amount of heat to the environment. For example, a single 400 MW coal plant at full load will release over 3 billion BTU's per hour. Nuclear plants being less efficient proportionately dump even more heat to the environment. And the world’s entire power plants together pale to insignificance when one considers the heat released to the environment by motor vehicles. At the same time, civilization has paved over vast expanses of the world’s surface with roads, buildings and homes. This surface area is no longer available to convert solar energy to vegetative matter. These paved areas absorb and then re-release the BTU's to the environment. The question becomes what effect does heat release and pavement has on global temperatures.

The simplest explanation is often the most correct. From a strictly First Law of Thermodynamics point of view, there can be no question that mankind’s actions are changing the climate. There's just too much energy being dumped to the environment. Global warming is real but probably driven by BTU not CO2. Yes CO2 has increased as temperatures have increased but these are not direct cause and effect. In fact, I suspect that increased levels of CO2 may be beneficial for crop growth.... something to consider as the world’s population continues to increase.

C.M. Jackson P.E.

If I were to heed the advice of my good friend Professor Banks I would not post this reply but the engineer in me always feels the urge to correct what is incorrect.

So Shehu Kaleel laments the cold weather in Europe this last winter and of course, for those poor souls who lost their lives as a result, one can feel nothing but compassion.
However the reader is led to believe that this cold weather is a result of Carbon Dioxide in the earth's atmosphere AND that it is the very small amount of Carbon Dioxide that is produced by the human incineration of fossil fuels. Note that by far the majority of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was NOT put there by the burning of fossil fuels.

What then explains the historical fact that in the 1600's, the River Thames in London England was quite frequently frozen over and not navigable. This very cold weather of course predates the production of Carbon Dioxide by humans. So clearly other mechanisms are at work which we either do not wish to understand or do not fit into "Global Warming" model which is so notoriously full of holes and politically motivated that it defies the imagination that any one would lend it credibility.

In response to Carl, you are quite correct energy is neither created nor destroyed and merely converts from one form to another ending up as heat. However while the amount of energy we are consuming (converting to heat) is large by historical standards by comparison to the amount of energy the Earth receive from the Sun it is merely a few billionths of a percent. The Sun emits more energy per second than has been used by all mankind in its entire history.

Let's get things into perspective people. The Sun is what dominates the temperature and the weather on this planet.

Indeed one of the counter theories to the CO2 theory is solar wind interactions with the upper atmosphere and scientists working on this have found an almost 1 to 1 correlation (not a doctored hockey stick graph but a REAL correlation) between the historical global temperature measurements and Sun activity. Not that one would hear the UN espouse such a valid and competing theory to the one they have spent an inordinate amount of money trying to prove.

So I suspect that a cold snap in Europe has absolutely nothing whatever to do with global warming or CO2. Of course such weather patterns do not fit at all with Global warming which is why we now hear the phrase "Global Climate Change" so we can explain colder as well as warmer weather.

To extrapolate a cold snap in Europe to the effects of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is really stretching it.


Not a shred of evidence to back up Shehu's case!

The simple explanation is that CO2 has a small effect on our climate and the sun has a large one.

The Pacific decadal oscillation, the Southern oscillation, the recent long sunspot cycle and many other indicators that tell us that the world is cooling. Naturally.

And, by the way, arctic ice is increasing. In 1942, the midwest of the US was warm while Europe froze. Exactly the same conditions as this winter. And the CO2 levels were much less.

There are several things wrong with Mr. Khaleel's pronouncements. He appears to have drunk the koolaid of the UN IPCC with their flawed models and data doctoring. Weather is weather. It is a complex chaotic process and it is fiendishly variable. We may be able to understand it a lot better in about 100 years.
The statement with which I take greatest exception is this: 'threat of climate change, caused by rising global temperatures, is the most significant environmental challenge facing the world.'
Incorrect. The most significant environmental challenge(s) is/are ignorance and poverty. Back to school Mr. Khaleel, you have a lot to learn.

Philosophical Basis for Challenging the IPCC: In an interesting opinion piece in The New York Times entitled "On Experts and Global Warming," Gary Gutting, Professor of Philosophy at the University of Notre Dame, argues that the non-experts must accept the findings of the expert authorities in climate science. Though not named, no doubt the expert climate authorities are the members of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC), particularly as expressed in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).


? Ignoring scientific data that is contrary to the central conclusions.
? Failure to rigorously test hypotheses using physical observations.
? Assuming results are evidence of cause.
? Assuming a poor correlation is evidence of cause.
? Assuming a thorough knowledge of the climate system.
? Assuming projections from unverified models are scientific knowledge.





In the SPM, only one natural variation is considered - solar irradiation. Other influences of the sun and the influence of ocean oscillations are ignored.



Contrary to the statements of Professor Gutting, anyone understanding the principles establishing physical sciences has a solid philosophical basis for challenging the work of the experts of the IPCC. Please see the referenced articles under "Challenging the Orthodoxy" and "Defenders of the Orthodoxy."

Mr.Sutherland; I must thank you for the advice to go back to school as there is no limit to seeking knowledge. Secondly your comment has no scienctific backing, I suggest we would understand each other better if we cover our opinion with scienctific fact. This forum looks more scienctific and I doubt if you are one. There are great and well educated people in the Ipcc who I are learnered. I think they deserve some respect. We must face the reality, global warming is real. And it devastating effect is showing across the globe. People like you needs to know situation in Africa and asia, it is pathetic and pity because of the poverty level is increasing due to drought.

Mr.Sutherland; I must thank you for the advice to go back to school as there is no limit to seeking knowledge. Secondly your comment has no scienctific backing, I suggest we would understand each other better if we cover our opinion with scienctific fact. This forum looks more scienctific and I doubt if you are one. There are great and well educated people in the Ipcc who are learnered. I think they deserve some respect. We must face the reality, global warming is real. And it devastating effect is showing across the globe. People like you needs to know situation in Africa and asia, it is pathetic and pity because of the poverty and illiteracy level is increasing due to drought, flooding, unpredictable weather etc all these I m sure have a direct or indirect proportion to global warming.

Mr Khaleel, Tyrants, dictators and poverty have much more damaging effects, as they are more pervasive than drought.
Learned people may deserve respect, but you should not fall into the logical fallacy of 'appeal to authority'.
Perhaps you should look up one of the many articles I have written on this site. It is as pertinent now as it was some years ago. My comments on AGW then, still hold, as the IPCC had not changed as the facts have changed. Can you? I can.

I hesitate to weigh in on this. John is somewhat right and somewhat wrong.

In general, large authorities tend to be correct; they are too bureaucratic to host a lie. I don't have any great reason to dispute the IPCC or the climate change contention in general. Why should I believe John instead of them? I DON'T find his articles convincing. Quite the contrary, actually.

My definition of climate change is the rise of CO2 levels to near 400 ppm which causes new behavior in the world climate. With all its vagaries, I think this is happening.

OTOH, the problem with climate change is that there is little (practically) one can do about it. If I were some kind of advisor, the notion of climate change (to me) would be to push more for nuclear over coal use. That's about all we can do at this point. I agree that other problems (dictators, poverty, etc.) impact people more than climate change does (at least right now). Don H. would indicate that this is a sign we should have fewer people on the planet.

I guess its up to individuals as to how miserable they'd like to live, but as of now, with our current resource access and political acumen, we can't seem to avoid 20-30% of the world living pretty miserable lives. I'm not sure have fewer people around would actually help, but having more around certainly won't.

Jim, the controlling interests of the IPCC and UN are 100% political. They also have nothing to lose as they are also 100% unaccountable except to politicians. Scientific entities, on the other hand, I may decide to trust if they are sufficiently accountable if they are wrong because then they have a keen interest in being honest as they have much to lose. As someone far wiser than I am said, 'political correctness is tyranny with good manners'. Unfortunately those who go at those of us who insist upon being persuaded only with good science, have forgotten the 'good manners' part of it and instead of answering our obsservations with persuasive science, go at us with ad hominem, instead.

Seems like those with a science bent should study some history and human behaviour, while those with a humanist bent need some grounding in the ways of science. 1) the IPCC is simply a small group of report writers who consolidate the available reliable published knowledge of all researchers in climate, including all the naysayers noted above. If their research hasn't negated the findings, its because it didn't hold up to inspection by highly qualified analysts. 2) Europe, and parts of the US eastern seaboard, had a nasty winter, but here in south central Canada, we've had a warmer winter than anyone can remember, including 0 permanent snow, rain through January and February. It is absolutely certain that something has changed (here). I'd certainly guess a significant shift in the normal boundaries of the jet stream, and the article's proposal of effects of loss of sea ice look reasonable.

John, if you're so good at recognizing "good science" in the climate domain, why not put some into the articles you've submitted here?

Len, Oh what a short attention span you have, along with a too forgiving and forgetful nature. You say:

Incorrect! You conveniently overlook the horrendous fact that the issuers of the IPCC reports once admitted (oh horror) that if the science did not match the conclusions that they wanted to see, then the science would be re-written - and by that same bunch of hacks who decided what the conclusions were to be before they even knew what the science said. What an admission to make! You seem able to swallow that elephant and others like it, quite easily with the moral indignation of a true zealot, while gagging on a few gnats.

You also conveniently overlook the fact that the IPCC scientists came to the conclusion that humans had NO discernible influence on the cliimate at the present time. I believe it was Ben Santer who rewrote that particular observation of the many scientists without their permission or knowledge, and changed its meaning by 180 degrees and decided that there was, and that's what was then written in the summary.

You also forget that the IPCC carefully selected which reports it would accept and which it would leave out, and quite capriciously. Although it said that only peer reviewed papers would be used, it then went ahead and used non-peer reviewed cr.p that had essentially no science to it whatsoever, and this continues to haunt them to this day. However, as they are unaccountable....

Len, rather than criticize (quite cowardly too) my numerous writings here, why not contribute some of your own. You always have a lot to say, but most of it is ad hominem, especially when I appear. I wonder why that is.

John, for someone so sensitive to ad hominem attacks, you seem to have quite a few of your own:
"The IPCC and UN are 100% political." "They are 100% unaccountable." "Len has a short attention span and is forgetful." "Len is cowardly."

I don't know if it represents in itself an ad hominem attack to point out the ad hominem attacks of others.

The report re-write you cite is from an op-ed piece by Frederick Seitz. The contentions of Seitz were dismissed by Santer and 40 others. Likewise, the smoke of the East Anglia climategate did not result in any fire.

I've noticed AGW debate mainly focuses on dismissing other people 'experts' as not being expert. Often via ad hominem attacks. Personally, I haven't found the technical papers of AGW critics (Beck, etc.) particularly compelling and they seem to have serious flaws in them.

Jim, Len is ad hominem without facts to back it up, i.e. 'slagging'. I back up my comments with facts, so I consider it more rebuke than ad hominem. Others will think what they will.
I actually enjoy receving such ad hominem attacks. It says much more about the writer and his base of information than it does about me.

John. The single ad hominem I recall posting toward you was a quite polite request to "remember your physics", for which if you're upset I apologize. Otherwise, I've simply argued to topic, and again, apoligize for perhaps being too successful.

In my work I have often quoted some people associated with this site. Len Gould and John Sutherland are two of them, and I intend to continue. They know things that are worth knowing and I think that they should be listened to. I don't know what the IPPC is at this moment, but if it is what I think it is I dont want to have anything to do with it. I feel the same way about the EU and a lot of those ragbags in the UN who put that show on the road in Libya, instead of trying to talk some sense into The Colonel.

Something else, I have learned an enormous amount from people in this site. Recently I was declared persona non grata from another site because of complaining of their accepting an absurd article. If I gave the orders in this old world of ours, I would ask persons on the lookout for exposure to be careful before impugning people who know what they are talking about.

Shehu, Being great and learned does not make you right. There were many great and learned people who considered that the world was flat when Senor Columbus took off to the west. They were well educated but of course completely wrong. In the time of Galileo another crop of incredibly learned people believed with their entire being that the Sun revolved around the earth - once again very wrong indeed. It is totally and completely irrelevant that the scientists who support the IPCC theories (and that is ALL they are - just theories) are well educated. I am sure they are. But that does not make them right.

There are so many inconsistencies in the computer models and the data that has gone into them that there is significant doubt as to the capabilites to predict anything. If these models are as good as you say then why were they not able to predict the cold weather in Europe. The IPCC is telling me that they know the global temperature 50 years from now but are unable to predict what the temperatures are going to be next year.

If that does not raise substantial doubt in the mind of any thinking person then I have some swamp land in Florida I would like to sell you.

Further to my comments above - where is the "evidence" that global warming is real. The world has experienced droughts many many times in the past and the situation in Africa is in fact far BETTER than it was a couple of hundred years ago. It is not drought that is killing people in Africa - it is AIDS and Malaria and dictators like Mugabe and they have nothing whatever to do with the climate.

French scientists reported this week that studies of glaciers in the Himalayas made from highly accurate satellite measurements show that the ice mass is INCREASING in some areas. Exactly the opposite of what the global warming booster club (sorry Fred but I just had to use your phrase) predicts is occurring. The facts do not support the conclusion.

There is a significant body of work done by equally great and learned scientists into the effects of solar particle streams on the upper atmosphere which has shown a far more accurate correlation to the earths temperature over the millennia than CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. But that work goes unreported because one cannot make political hay out of that.

I was in Australia last year where Global warming was given as the cause for a prolonged drought in that country. Unfortunately for the global warming theorists the drought came to an end resulting in serious flooding (too much water) in many areas. Of course both the drought and the flood are caused by global warming according the the lunatic Australian media.

Of course John Sutherland is absolutely right. While the IPCC continues to doctor its data the evidence against AGW is mounting daily and the ridiculous and unsupported notion that a single bout of cold weather in Europe is caused by AGW is just plain nonsense.

Just last year the Swiss were lamenting low snow falls across the Alps. It seems to me that it is the weather being the weather - entirely UN predictable.