The Remaining Primaries

Much of the media, Dick Morris and Obama supporters would like you to believe that Obama has the inside track to the nomination right now. But if you blast for it, and look at the states and the numbers, you CAN actually find the truth.

This is the deal. Obama is going to probably be ahead in delegates when the February caucuses and primaries are over.

Then comes Texas and Ohio, and Hillary should win both. If she wins both decisively, that’s going to be important.

Pennsylvania is in April, another big state. Once again, Clinton is favored.

When I say favored, I’m not talking about current polling, which is meaningless, even when it’s recent polling. Just talking demographics.

Obama does have a decent chance, and it depends on two things.

IF, as it turns out, IF, there is widespread disenchantment at the thought of Clinton as the nominee within the Democratic party, the period between the February Obama victories and March 4th will be the time to find out. In that case, there COULD be a deluge of super delegates announcing for Obama, in an effort bolster him and lend him the illusion (and then the reality) of inevitability. That’s where he could pile on the numbers.

ALSO, the media will be in hog heaven between mid February and March 4th. They probably will stop resorting to using pimp and prostitute metaphors about Clinton and her family, but they will be as ugly as they can reasonably manage.

Finally, it’s also possible that Obama will start reaching into Clinton’s strengths and start appealing to Hispanics and working class Democrats. Then all bets are off. Then he will win.)

Now let’s add into the mix Florida and Michigan, whose votes the Democratic National Committee is supposedly ignoring. There are three possible scenarios as to how this will play out: 1) Florida and/or Michigan aren’t seated at the convention. Actually, this one isn’t really possible. 2) Florida and Michigan are seated with their delegate totals as is — heavily favoring Clinton. That’s the Clinton dream scenario. Or 3) The Obama dream scenario: The numbers are thrown out, and they hold caucuses in both states.

But even in the Obama dream scenario, Clinton would probably roar back and win both, especially as every Clinton voter would be motivated beyond belief.

So I keep adding this up and don’t see how this adds up to an Obama victory — short of a huge change in voting patterns (which is possible) or widespread horror within the party at the prospect of Clinton as the nominee.

All right, one more thing: The party knows that whoever wins, the other side will be heartsick. The only way to ameliorate this would be for both to be on the same ticket, but an Obama/Hillary ticket would make no sense and would be impossible. So in effect, if you’re for Hillary, you’re kind of for Obama, too (Hillary/Obama), and any professional looking at this would have to see that as a very strong and probably winning hand.

Categories: POLITICS
Mick LaSalle