Teenager is fourth person in UK to die from swine flu

A 19-year-old man has become the fourth person in the UK to die of swine flu and the first in London.

The teenager, from south London, who has not been identified, had serious underlying health problems, as had all those who have died in the UK so far. He tested positive for the H1N1 virus after his death at Lewisham hospital on Wednesday.

So far there have been four deaths among the nearly 7,500 lab-confirmed cases. On Thursday the health secretary Andy Burnham said projections showed that if cases continued to rise at the current rate there would be 100,000 new cases a day by the end of August.

The number of deaths will inevitably also rise, but extrapolation from the four deaths so far would not be statistically valid because the numbers are too few. A Department of Health spokesman said suggestions that there could be 40 deaths a day by the end of the summer were wrong.

"Scientific and clinical experts can use sophisticated modelling techniques to help us understand how the virus may behave, but that is all they can do – be a guide, not a prediction," he said.

Those whose immune systems are compromised, for instance through cancer treatment, or who have breathing problems, like asthmatics, or who are otherwise frail are at greatest risk from the virus. The south London teenager is the second youngest victim, after nine year-old Sameerah Ahmad, who was born with a rare life-threatening disease. The first victim was 38-year-old Jacqui Fleming, who died in hospital in Glasgow where she had been in intensive care since giving birth three months prematurely. The baby also later died, but not from swine flu.

The Department of Health said that it was possible to catch swine flu in hospital, where many people might be at risk because of their poor state of health. "Like any other place where there are lots of people, you could get it in hospital," said a spokesman. "But we're making sure that people with swine flu are isolated away from other patients and staff are very meticulous in their cleanliness."

Another death is likely to add to the alarm created by the soaring numbers of cases, but chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson warned that people should not attempt to buy antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu over the internet.

Donaldson pointed out that the UK has one of the biggest stockpiles of the drug in the world and certainly enough to treat all cases of the disease here. He warned on Thursday against buying antiviral drugs on the internet.

All those who fall ill will receive Tamiflu, even though some experts think treatment is warranted only for those with other health problems. However, some of those who have become seriously ill and at least one who died elsewhere were apparently healthy before their infection.

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