Brent Batten: Mark your calendars to rebut predictions

A not-so-bold prediction, now that the major parties seem to have settled on their presidential candidates.

Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

A charismatic liberal running as a moderate vs. an old war hero. We've seen this before. Twice.

Whether Bill Clinton vs. George H.W. Bush in 1992, Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole in 1996 or Obama vs. John McCain in 2008, the outcome's the same. The deft turn of a phrase beats a chest full of medals every time.

A slightly bolder prediction, now that the major parties seem to have settled on their presidential candidates.

Gasoline prices aren't going anywhere because of the previous prediction's realization.

As hard as it is for George W. Bush haters to accept, there isn't a dial in the Oval Office that sets the price of gasoline. Bush didn't jack up the price of gasoline as a favor to his buddies in big oil.

Worldwide demand, coupled with America's decades-long failure to fully utilize resources at hand, domestic oil and nuclear power, to name two, are behind the rising prices. Obama can do nothing about the former and he shows no enthusiasm for the latter.

A bolder still prediction, now that the major parties seem to have settled on their presidential candidates.

President Obama's Iraq policy will end up looking remarkably similar to that of President Bush and candidate McCain.

At the risk of evoking deafening howls from the left, the dirty little secret is we're winning in Iraq. The media isn't trumpeting that but reading between the lines you can see lower levels of violence, lower U.S. casualties and an increasingly competent Iraqi military.

Candidate Obama may or may not realize this now, but soon after taking office, President Obama will sit down with generals who will explain it to him.

They'll also explain the risks of a premature U.S. departure. If that isn't enough to convince him to extend the U.S. presence beyond the time frame he now promises, his political advisers will remind him that a disaster such as the military men foretold would be laid squarely at his feet.

On the other hand, a more deliberate path will allow him to take credit for our ultimate success, should we prevail, or blame the Bush administration, should we fail.

After his inauguration, don't be surprised if Obama does a policy shift along the lines of Bill Clinton's 1993 about face regarding a middle class tax cut. ‘I know I promised one thing during the campaign, and I really meant to deliver, but once I got here I realized my predecessor has screwed things up so badly, I just can't go through with it.'

President Obama will bring the troops out of Iraq, but he won't risk an international calamity to do so on the artificial timetable that is so popular on the campaign trail. He'll bring them out when the situation in Iraq warrants, just as McCain would.

You are no doubt cracking your knuckles, preparing to write and tell me how wrong I am about one, two or all three predictions. Suggestion: Clip this out, staple it to June 10 on your 2009 calendar, read it then, and then write. It'll give us both something to look forward to.


E-mail Brent Batten at

Naples Daily News polls