Italy’s next prime minister

Life after Mario?

Italians and investors alike worry about who might succeed its current leader

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Readers' comments


Konrad Walter

Reasonable minded Berlusconi will not play a big role in next elections. But wasn´s it the same when we was elected the last time, despite a bunch of scandals and affairs?

Monni in reply to Konrad Walter

If it was just us honest Italians voting, then Mr Berlusconi would not even run in the next elections. But since mafia is involved too (and as you know Berlusconi is friends with them), the results of the elections are quite predictable. I always wonder why the EU does not send controllers here...


Professor Monti is a senator for life, not a passing comet star.

He also explicitly stated, last September in Washington, talking towards toe Council on Foreign Relations about Italy’s future after the elections (now expected for February or March 2013):

"I will be there. I will consider".

I will finish with a little hope, again from Professor Monti’s speech at the Council on Foreign Relations:


Against all odds, Italy will make it. More of it here:

pietro dangeli

An old communist against an old oligarch.
Bersani will increase taxes and will not cut the cost of state... and Berlusconi doesn't expect to win, he just wants to create a group that will help him to survive and defend his interests. He was recently convicted of tax fraud and is facing trial on accusations that ha paid for sex with a minor.

They are unfit to rule Italy!

We need a third way that obviously is not Casini, Fini and Montezemolo ...


Berlusconi wont reach more than 10%.
Bersani is a puppet put there as leader when he s everything but a leader.
Bersani might win the next elections, but after less than 1 year , maybe less... there be will be a crisis and then another technical government whit Monti leader again.


As an Italian, I am actually afraid Berlusconi could win again: do no forget he has strong ties with Mafia and other organizations alike, so the elections are never completely true to what people want, but only to what his money and promises can buy.
I believe that, if Mr Bersani was really responsible as he says, he would step back and allow Mr Renzi to run as a Prime Minister, endorsing him and allowing him to do what he promised before the Primarie. This is the only way to defeat Berlusconi, as Renzi appeals to young people, some people from the Left party, people who do not belong to any party, some of the Right party and all of those who want a change, for once, in Italian politics. We'll see..

oldfashion2 in reply to Monni

I am afraid that Mr Renzi, although very vocal about "Change" , says words similar to those told by Mr Blair about 15 years ago.

The problem about Renzi is his being old pretending to be new.

And I did not like the war on rules during the primary election, as he was unable to play inside his own party choosing to play as an outsider.

Also, I am not sure why Mr Berlusconi waited until the end of the primary election to make public his decision to run again.

My conclusion about Renzi: too many doubts about the person, his ability to fight a fair play, his political goals.

Let see what he is going to do in the next years, showing his true face and objectives.

Monni in reply to oldfashion2

As far as the war on rules goes, I partly agree with you. It was not right to try and change the rules in the week before December 2nd, but again, it was not right either to prevent young people to vote (they did before, so why not now?!), to force voters to sign those stupid documents, basically selling their personal data to their marketing company, to reject potential voters who did not vote the first time but wanted to vote the second time. Renzi agreed on these rules and had to play by them, right, but Bersani did not do a favour to his party and potential voters by imposing this kind of rules.
"Change": I think that, right now, everybody in Italy knows that the situation is dramatic (my brother, 13, knows too). For once, though, it would be nice to see someone new, to talk about something else and not the same, old fight Berlusconi-"Communists". I am 24, the first memory I have about Italian politics is Berlusconi embarassing us and Prodi/D'Alema/Bersani complaining about him. I would have loved to experience something else and not be forced to choose between two men who could be my grandfathers and keep talking about "future".

oldfashion2 in reply to Monni

In USA the primary elections are organized and guaranteed by the State you live in. In other words it is not a picnic but a real election.

How to manage in Italy? You try a solution.

For example, you try to have a list of people certified (so: photo ID; the prove that you are in the electoral list of your city) and since the second poll is just the second something of a first something, you need to lock the numbers of the voting people.

I do not know of some selling of personal data to marketing companies.

As I know, the Authority was informed of the process by the Renzi's people and did not object anything: do you have different information?

Monni in reply to oldfashion2

We do not have a long history of Primary elections.
Anyway, when we vote for our mayors, for example, if you do not vote the first time, there is no problem if you vote the second time: obviously you need to have all the documents, meaning ID card and voter registration card.
Italian Democratic Party was founded in 2007. During the past Primary elections, they allow young people to vote, even those who technically still had no right to vote (those from 16 to 18 years old) and seemed quite proud of it too, as it meant that they cared about what the future voters thought. But this time Mr Renzi was quite popular among young voters, and therefore they could not vote.
As far as the selling of data goes: we had to sign twice, the first time in order to have our data inserted in lists of centre-left voters, that could be published (and, after Renzi informed the Authority and complained about it, the Party had to promise they would not publish those lists), the second time to allow them to use our data for commercial reasons, and the Authority did not do anything about it.

Anyway... The situation here is not good, believe me, and the centre-left party needs a good candidate to win, especially in the Senate. Unfortunately, Bersani is not a strong candidate.


@ Nicola Vaccaro:

I am not so sure that in Italy there is going to be an “irreversible trend of aversion towards political corruption.” Unfortunately, for that even Monti is not enough. Illegality has been an infamous trait of the Italian political culture for centuries and it is bound to last for long time longer. Of course you need to implement measures that can counter fight the trend, but the battle is long, difficult and the outcome uncertain.

@ Mario Ferretti:

As for Mr Bersani and his performance as Minister I must say that his last performance was not satisfactory. However, it was the last center-left govern as a whole that performed badly mostly for political reasons: an unstable coalition and a very weak majority in the Senate. On the contrary the first experience of Mr Bersani (1996-2001) was generally seen as a good result and before he was a good President of the Emilia Romagna region.

I am not sure that the referendum (passed with a huge majority) to repeal the privatization of the water supply companies was demented.

In the last years the once acclaimed privatization-of-everything motto has been severely criticized since some goods (for example water) are now seen as a basic good to be guaranteed to everyone at a reasonable price. Rather, in Italy the problem is the bad public management (see my first lines of this post). If I remember correctly the stance of Mr Bersani on the topic was erratic: he said that he was in favour of the approval of the referendum but he did not actually vote. Probably because his party had voted the law which was to change: an Italian conundrum.

Generally speaking I think that Mr Bersani could be a very reliable premier and I hope that his would-be cabinet (with a possible support of Monti anyhow?) will do good enough, taking into account the present very difficult situation and the worse condition (based on the most reliable economic forecasts) of the next year.

On the other hand I am wondering which could be the alternative.

The very problem is to guess the right recipe: the Thatcherism-Reaganism has been proved to be a disaster if even the IMF has recently stressed the negative effect of the present European approach (towards Greece, for example) and a new paradigm is to be invented.

Mario Ferretti in reply to oldfashion2


Well, you are not alone in Italy (although the "huge majority" becomes rather less huge as soon as you take account of all the people who, like me, did not participate in the hope to bust the quorum). Yet being not alone does not by itself make you right, as I'm sure you would agree. In actual fact, you know very well that most "basic goods" (like your daily bread) get "guaranteed to everyone at a reasonable price" by free competition in open markets, and certainly not by command. While the experience of the Soviet Union of old (besides today's rotten Italian municipal water companies) may help you understand why bad management (and corruption) are the entirely predictable results of public monopoly. So even the argument you are offering here does not really seem terribly rational, at least to me.

Moreover, on the really demented rhetoric of the supposed "common goods" — the one that actually fuelled the "huge" majority in question and is still being peddled today by your Mr Bersani — may I respectfully suggest that you begin by reading a very famous essay called "The Tragedy of the Commons", published on Science by biologist Garrett Hardin back in 1968? That, I am sure, would help you to see the point.

oldfashion2 in reply to Mario Ferretti

I am not sure that the reference to "The Tragedy of the Commons" is a good point, if you read the entire debate on the subject before and after the piece of Hardin.

For example, recently a US scholar was awarded the Nobel Price in Economics because "her work has demonstrated how common property could be successfully managed by groups using it."

More probably you need to look into the history of a population and find its own "mood" in managing resources.

In other words, it is not the logic axis "private-public" you should look at, being other factors the explanation.

For example, do you think that the Italian privatizations in the '90s' were a good way to deliver good services to the Italian customers? Do you think that the Italian highways are now well managed and available at a reasonable price? Do you ever wonder how it was possible that Telecom has become so indebted after being so rich -cash and assets- and profitable?

The Italian businessmen, in my view, are very similar to the Italian politicians, since they both are Italians and share the same history (and sometimes the same stories).

Rather than using theory you should look for the right solution by the rule of thumb, unfortunately.

Otherwise it would be so easy.

Mario Ferretti in reply to oldfashion2

You are referring to Elinor Ostrom's work on the "design principles" of common pool resource management, but I doubt that you have ever read any of it. It belongs to the same category as Enrico Barone's seminal 1908 work on the theory of efficient central socialist planning: a long list of conditions to be met. And, if you run through these lists, you realise why in fact neither has ever been met in practice, or is ever likely to. By contrast, Hardin was referring to a historically widely observed tragedy, explaining its practical causes. Moreover, economic historians also know how that tragedy was in fact cured: not by any of Ostrom's question-begging "principles", but by the enclosure movement. Which indeed worked through the very same mechanism whereby cows or pigs — the animals most heavily preyed upon by humans — don't run the slightest risk to get extinguished, while wild tigers or high-sea fish (typical common goods) very seriously do. Don't you know the trick? No abstract "principles" here, just common sense.

oldfashion2 in reply to Mario Ferretti

I am sure that you have read the entire literature on the subject.

In my view, the very question is: "Is privatization always and everywhere the solution to limited resources?"

You seem to say: "Yes, it is."

In my view, common sense would suggest that you should not implement the same solution always and everywhere.

If you do, they would call it "Religious Faith".

Mario Ferretti in reply to oldfashion2

You are being disingenuous, in my view. There is nothing "religious" in pointing out what historical experience shows to be happening in most cases. Neither did the promoters of the unfortunate Italian water referendum point at some practical peculiarity of Italy's water-supply system. Quite to the contrary, they limited themselves to a blanket "common goods" rhetoric, which they didn't even try to justify on empirical or rational grounds. Indeed, the leading role played in that by a whole posse of Roman Catholic bishops points rather clearly to where the "Religious Faith" element was actually to be found in this whole rather sad business. So you really appear to be like the pot calling the poor old kettle black.

Moreover, you are completely ignoring that — under the cover of a "common goods" simple-minded faith — the referendum has affected much more than just ownership. To mention only two things: it has forbidden to base investment decisions on standard internal-rate-of-return criteria; and it has reintroduced the corrupt recycling of local politicians into the management of all municipal economic outfits (and not just the water-supply ones). So, Italian voters have been swindled by the "common goods" trick into swallowing up once again some of the worse corruption and arbitrary inefficiency affecting their unfortunate country. A far cry indeed from Ostrom's "design principles". The sooner basically honest Italians like you realise that, the better for all concerned.

oldfashion2 in reply to Mario Ferretti

There are many religious faiths, including the belief that there is a magic wand to solve all the problems of the world.

Yes, the Italian political corruption you mention is a real problem.

Do you think that an Italian or French company working in Italy in the water supply sector would be suddenly the solution?

What about the Italian privatizations in the ’90s I mentioned before?

Why a greedy inefficient private company should be better than a corrupted political manager?

In my view it is more complicated than that.

Mario Ferretti in reply to oldfashion2

"Why a greedy inefficient private company should be better than a corrupted political manager?"

The sensible main reasons appear to be three:

1) Political corruption is much worse than inefficiency: it's a direct threat to everybody's freedom.

2) Apart from that, a "greedy private company" can only get permanently inefficient through monopoly market power; yet such power does not need to exist outside the provision of the basic infrastructure (network); and even within that it can be rather easily regulated by the law, as it happens with any other natural monopoly the world over. An integral part of such regulation is that investment policy be based on the transparent application of exactly the kind of cost-benefit analysis which has been crazily banned by the anti-privatisation referendum: if that was done, competition in the funds allocation process would by itself strongly encourage the social efficiency of investment and operations.

3) By contrast, the current system — besides feeding directly political corruption and waste — suffers from a chronic form of under-investment, due to the general scarcity of public funds; indeed, the main object of the repealed legislation was not to change ownership as such, but to open up the possibility of joint private-public investment, with the efficient tapping of extra (private) financial resources.

As you know very well, none of these three arguments was even peripherally touched upon during the referendum campaign. If you dropped your faith-driven approach, you would see that by itself this certifies beyond reasonable doubt the demented nature of the whole business.

Finally, as to your repeated queries about the previous Italian privatisations, may I draw your attention to the fact that most of them were actually phoney ones, as they kept a controlling stake within the public sector? They were short-sightedly pursued just to raise extra revenue, rather than to make room for competition. Yet competition is the key. Until most Italians realise this, dropping their theological dogmas on public-versus-private ownership as such, no very great improvement may be in sight.


It is amazing how little the author of this article knows. He seldom comes where he is more ignorant than anyone else. It's not true that Bersani has plenty of political experince. Mr Bersani is a former communist and if you are a communist you can't be right in the head and only morons can trust such a man. It is not true that this Mr Bersani when was last in office between 2006 and 2008 he was on the side of reforms. He only pretended to make reforms. The reforms this 'good minister'tried to carry out where only laughable and negligible reforms nobody noticed. Have you ever heard of communists making reforms. It would be the same to speak of an honest thief. Mr Bersani is a former communist and once communist always communist all the way. Don't forget the proverb." The leopard never changes his spots". NEVER!!!!


We have to take note of the fact that should Bersani and his left acolytes take power in Italy, Italy would lose any credibility that's why the foreign markets wouldn't have any confidence in Italy's future. They wouldn't buy Italy's public bond and the government wouldn't have the means to pay salaries, pensions and services. There would be a dreadful recession, huge unemployment, flight of capital, relocation of many firms abroad. The government would be compelled to put taxes over taxes among them the sinister property tax would excel. It would be a general disaster and because of that the centre-right voters, who are the majority in the country, have to join together and avoid absolutely that the leftists could take power in Italy. Only a nation of idiots would be ready to entrust its destiny and its future to a party (the PD with secretary the former communist Mr Bersani) which is the direct spritual heir of the craziest and most deranged and insane ideology which has ever infested the world we live in: the Communism

Nicola Vaccaro

The good heritage of Monti is that Italians will not vote anymore, at least in majority, for a party whose leader is a "clownish Berlusconi"or alike.
Another irreversible trend is the aversion towards political corruption and its costs.

Nicola Vaccaro in reply to Bruno Stolle

Italians have also proved to have another characteristic: hardheaded to get a goal, when this is important,specific, whose actions are run by a credible political elite.
Think of joining the Euro.
About the tendency to follow Pied Pipers: why does Monti lead the rank of preference among Italians, at least in canvassing of opinion, after a year of sacrifices?

longman333 in reply to Bruno Stolle

Italians are always ready to vote for a "clownish" Bersani,a "clownish" Grillo and a "clownish" Monti as they once followed the "clownish" Mussolini. Nothing is more corrupt than the leftists (Lusi,Penati,Marrazzo and many others) and in spite of all that 35% of the voters would be ready to vote for them. What do you want more than that?

Mario Ferretti

Mr Bersani's record as Minister of Economic Development of the Prodi II Cabinet amounts to two Decrees of June 2006 and January 2007, plus a later series of lesser "liberalization" bills. On the whole, he dealt with taxi drivers and pharmacies, the professions, broadcasting, local public services and energy. However, you might remember that most of these topics were still high up on the reform agenda of Mr Monti's government four years later, in autumn 2011: which might suggest that Mr Bersani's ministerial achievements on them were somewhat less than fully decisive. Moreover, one should perhaps also remember the man's later record as secretary of PD, which included an apparent back-pedalling even on some of his own rather timid reforms: prominent among which was his endorsing of the demented 2011 referendum to repeal water privatisation. Here his embracing of an unthinking "common goods" rhetoric (which still goes on to this day) was not so much the ideological result of his Communist roots, as a short-sighted pandering to the knee-jerk reactions of many of the less cultured members of Italian society. Which also goes far to explain his open opposition to much of Mr Monti's agenda, starting from labour-market reform. Both things actually suggest that he cannot really understand the deep supply-side cultural roots of Italy's economic predicament.

All in all, I would hence conclude that your optimistic assessment of the man as next Italian PM errs somewhat on the side of wishful thinking.

MilovanDjilas in reply to Mario Ferretti

Thankfully there is a more cultured member of Italian society like yourself to tell us that Mr. Bersani practises, "short-sighted pandering to the knee-jerk reactions of many of the less cultured members".
Clearly such a great leader as Silvio Berlusconi never did anything of the sort.

longman333 in reply to MilovanDjilas



I like the comments of longman333.

He says that Italy is now (badly) ”run by a merchant banks’dummy” and is going to be more in danger because it is about to be run by a former communist (Mr Bersani, generally said to have been a good minister).

So, who on earth could possibly save Italy?

Let me think…. Oh, yes, Mr Berlusconi, of course.

longman333 in reply to oldfashion2

Mr Bersani is a former communist and if you are a communist you can't be right in the head and only morons can trust such a man. It is not true that this Mr Bersani when was last in office between 2006 and 2008 he was on the side of reforms. He only pretended to make reforms. The reforms this 'good minister'tried to carry out where only laughable and negligible reforms nobody noticed. Mr Bersani is a former communist. Don't forget the proverb." The leopard never changes his spots". NEVER!!!! Communists are all always weak..... in their hard heads.


As corrected stated in the analysis, Italy's problems are structural and big and no future government (let alone a left one!) can even think about solving it.
The country's finances are troubled and putting them in order means cutting deep in the welfare state.
The country's competitivity and productivity are at third world levels and no government will change this within a mandate.
It doesn't matter who wins the next Italin elections. The Germans need to save some money to bail out (ALSO) Italy.

SET Sail

How could anyone in their right mind expect Monti to solve Italy's problems in one year, defies the wildest imagination. The guy is extremely disciplined and showed that abundantly in the past when opposed to Microsoft: he certainly supported a recovery in international credibility.

Different from his Roman predecessors though, Monti has to move in a democracy, inside a political class whose only interest is preserve their seat in parliament. How could he or his ministers change things for good ? Unthinkable.

I don't know what the President can actually do, but it is evident Monti should keep working for at least another 3 years, possibly with all these politician on a long sabbatical, on some beach far away until the country is back in shape. Now, because utopya is not of this world, we will watch Italians reach hunger before they do something serious about their political class.


Mr Bersani is a former communist and if you are a communist you can't be right in the head and only morons can trust such a man. It is not true that this guy when was last in office between 2006 and 2008 he was on the side of reforms. He only pretended to make reforms. The reforms he tried to carry out where only laughable and negligible reforms nobody noticed. Mr Bersani is a former communist. Don't forget the proverb." The leopard never changes his spots". NEVER!!!!


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