Edition: U.S. / Global

BASEBALL: NOTEBOOK; Baker Is Seen as the X Factor in the Beefed-Up National League West Race

Published: April 11, 1999

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be favored to win the National League West, right? They certainly spent enough of Rupert Murdoch's money, didn't they?

Yes, but don't overlook the Colorado Rockies. They fired a perfectly capable manager, Don Baylor, and lured Jim Leyland to Denver by giving him $2 million a year for three years. This is a guy who knows how to win. Look what he did two years ago with the Florida Marlins, the last best team money could buy.

But what about the Arizona Diamondbacks? After only one year of existence, they bought up all the pitchers on the free-agent market (except the one the Dodgers got), figuring pitching was the fastest route to respectability and the playoffs.

Dodgers, Rockies, Diamondbacks -- there's hardly room for the San Francisco Giants. But the Giants have something none of those teams have. That would be their manager, Dusty Baker. No one in the division writes off the Giants with Baker driving their engine.

''Dusty will find a way to get them to overachieve,'' said Sandy Johnson, the Diamondbacks' assistant general manager and one of Baker's many admirers.

Leyland himself rates Baker highly. ''Dusty Baker does as good as anybody,'' the Rockies' manager said. ''They'll be right there in my opinion because that's just the way he is. He won't let them not be there. Whether they win or not, who knows? But they'll be there. You can take it to the bank. He's too good. He's got those guys playing hard for him every day. They respect him a lot. That's been obvious.''

The Giants won the division title in 1997, then missed the wild-card spot last year in a playoff loss to the Chicago Cubs. They started this season with the West's lowest payroll (even the downsizing San Diego Padres are paying players more) and five victories in the first five games.

''This division's so close,'' Baker said. ''An injury or two, add a player or take a player away, that could make all the difference in the world.''

The Dodgers' winter moves and their ability and readiness to spend money to bolster their team have emboldened them to think they will prevail in the division, but Baker has not jumped on their bandwagon.

''They think they got it,'' the two-time manager of the year said shortly before the season began. ''Let them think what they want. I don't care. They still have to play. They were picked for first five out of the last six years, weren't they?''

Yes, Baker added, the Dodgers have a good team. But he said: ''Who knows what's going to happen? Look at the Orioles. Look at the teams everybody picks to win. You don't know what's going to happen over there. Nobody knows. If everybody knew what's going to happen, why start the season? Money makes you better, but money doesn't necessarily assure you of winning. It helps. Talent supersedes the dollar.''

Anointed by Aaron

Ken Griffey Jr. insists he is not a home run hitter, but a home run hitter he greatly respects and admires has anointed him as the man who.

With the 25th anniversary of his record-breaking 715th home run commanding much attention recently, Henry Aaron has been asked if he thinks anyone playing today could break his record of 755.

''One player who has a good chance of doing it,'' Aaron said, ''is Ken Griffey Jr. because of his age and the way he has hit home runs the last few years. If he can stay healthy and stay focused the way he has the last few years, he could do it.''

Griffey, the man who says he isn't a home run hitter, has hit 56 home runs each of the last two seasons, joining Babe Ruth and Mark McGwire as the only players who have attained the 50 plateau in successive seasons. He began this season, his 11th, with 350 home runs.

Hitting 50 or more in each of the next several seasons would certainly put Griffey in position to reach Aaron, but no one can expect him to maintain that pace.

Nor can he be expected to play enough seasons to hit another 400 or so.

Aaron played 23 seasons, his final one coming at age 42. Griffey is 29, and 13 more seasons would give him 23 and have him playing his last season at age 41.

Aaron never hit more than 47 home runs in a season. His next highest total was 45. He did not lead the National League either year. Willie Mays beat him, 49-45, in 1962, and Willie Stargell topped him, 48-47, in 1971. Aaron led the league four times, three times hitting 44, his uniform number.

A Legendary Temper

When Henry Aaron and Bud Selig were in their 20's and working in Milwaukee, they went to football games together. One game in particular stands out in Selig's mind.

''We'd get sideline passes for the Packers games and stand behind the Packer bench,'' related Selig, who grew up to become the baseball commissioner. ''The Packers were playing the Rams, and they were scuffling. Vince Lombardi got the offensive line together and read them out.

''Hank and I were so petrified we didn't know where to hide. He looked at me and I looked at him. I said, 'What should we do?' We sort of cowered off to the side and watched the rest of the game from there. Both of us were absolutely petrified. Vince's legendary temper got us and it wasn't even aimed at us.''

The Long Purple Line