01635cam a22002297 4500001000600000003000500006005001700011008004100028100002000069245008300089260006600172490004100238500001800279520069200297530006100989538007201050538003601122690009201158710004201250830007601292856003701368w6874NBER20140317015414.0140317s1999 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBates, David S.10aFinancial Markets' Assessment of EMUh[electronic resource] /cDavid S. Bates. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc1999.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w6874 aJanuary 1999.3 aThis article reviews the assumptions and methodologies underlying EMU probability calculators,' which infer from financial data the probability of specific countries joining the European Monetary Union. Some historical evidence is presented in support of the expectations hypothesis for intra-European interest rate differentials underlying most calculators, while various potential biases are deemed negligible. The various EMU calculators differ primarily in their scenarios for intra-European interest rate differentials conditional upon EMU not occurring. This article also discusses what can be inferred from financial data regarding future policies of the European Central Bank. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration 2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w6874.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w6874