HAS the trauma of Iraq made Americans more isolationist? A new poll, released on November 17th, finds some evidence that it has. The Pew Research Centre periodically asks a sample of opinion leaders, and another sample of the general public, a barrage of questions about “America's place in the world”. Their answers are getting gloomier.

This is especially true of the elite. Asked whether America will succeed in establishing a stable democracy in Iraq, only 33% of journalists, 27% of academics and 13% of scientists and engineers thought it would. The general public were more optimistic—56% thought their country would eventually prevail. Among the elite, only military officers were cheerier, with 64% predicting victory.

As for George Bush's calls for democracy in the wider Middle East, most Americans thought this was a good idea, but few thought it would succeed. The general public were divided: 22% thought it a bad idea, 36% a good idea that would probably fail, and 34% a good idea that would probably succeed. A large majority of the elite thought it a good idea that would probably fail, with the exception of military and religious leaders, who were more optimistic.

Two-thirds of Americans thought their country was less respected than in the past. The most popular explanation was the war in Iraq. A whopping 88% of the elite cited Iraq as one of the main factors driving anti-Americanism, as did 71% of the general public.

Presumably because of this, elite and regular Americans alike are feeling less gung-ho. All elite groups (apart from the armed forces, for which no data were available) were less likely than they were in 1993 to say that America should be the most assertive of leading nations. Among state and local government leaders, the proportion fell from 78% to 54%. And among the general public, the proportion who thought that America should “mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own” rose from 30% in 2002 to 42% this year. This is comparable with the peaks of isolationist sentiment after the Vietnam war and after the cold war ended.

Mr Bush can perhaps dismiss the defeatist mood of the elite. As Pew's researchers admit, the opinion leaders they interviewed were mostly Democrats. But the president cannot dismiss the public's growing desire not to have to deal with the sort of people who strap bombs to themselves and blow up wedding parties. Speaking at an air force base in Alaska this week, Mr Bush reiterated his view that America has no choice but to confront them. Islamic terrorists, he warned, seek “to break our will and blackmail our government into isolation”. “That's not going to happen so long as I'm the President of the United States,” he promised. But a dwindling number of Americans are behind him.