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Doubts grow over referendum on electoral reform

It is by no means certain that Labour will make AV a campaigning priority
Ballot box
The referendum on introducing the alternative vote system at general elections is expected to go ahead next May. Photograph: Steve Taylor/Getty Images

Labour electoral reformers are rightly excited that Labour is now led by someone who believes in electoral reform - specifically the alternative vote.

Stephen Twigg, at a fringe meeting in Manchester, was suggesting that a majority of Labour MPs would back reform.

He also made some cogent points about how the campaign could be built round offering voters freedom so they can cast their ballot as they truly wish.

But elsewhere in Manchester, the AV cause was hitting the buffers. I understand there has been a pretty high level meeting between Labour and Liberal Democrat strategists in the past few days – and the noises emerging were distinctly pessimistic about winning the referendum.

The desire to "kick Clegg" seems to be overwhelming, and will be even higher as the cuts start to bite in local government next spring.

Even some prominent Labour lifelong supporters of AV are admitting that they are not going to make AV their campaigning priority if the ballot is held at the same time as the local elections. The priority will be to turf Liberal Democrat councillors out.

The hostility between the two parties as they fight for votes and members in the local elections is going to make a joint campaign hard. I was even told that some are privately urging Clegg to see if the date for the referendum could be delayed beyond May.

An excuse could be found buried in the technicalities of the bill introducing the referendum, such as the warning by the Electoral Commission that the current planned question needs changing to become more comprehensible.

It has also dawned on people that Ed Miliband, in his speech, did not commit himself to campaign for AV, although he said he would personally vote for it.

He may not want to be given a bloody nose in his first nationwide electoral tussle with David Cameron, and also did not commit to put the Labour party machine behind the referendum. It may be a pretty rickety machine, but without it the electoral reformers lack activists.

Part of the difficulty is that Labour's stance towards the Liberal Democrats remains unresolved. The leader's speech pointedly did not contain any attacks on Clegg or the Lib Dems.

But at a question-and-answer session with Miliband the following day, there was a huge amount of Lib Dem bashing to which he did not demur.

Many of those around him seem pretty certain that not only can they take a large number of seats off the Lib Dems in May, they can also pluck ripe recruitment pickings from their ranks.

Miliband himself suggested that such was the disillusionment in the Liberal Democrat ranks that it would be possible to build the Labour party membership – currently around 170,000 – back to the 400,000 level reached in 1997 at the zenith of Blairism.

It is possible that Miliband will sort Labour's stance out and/or the pro-AV campaign can rise above this politics and context, but it is going to be hard.

A tactical retreat may yet become the best option. For if this referendum is lost, the cause of electoral reform is dead for 10 years or more.

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