Edition: U.S. / Global

THE 1992 CAMPAIGN: Turnout; Stirring the Melting Pot of New York's Democrats

Published: April 7, 1992

Nearly 3.8 million Democrats are eligible to vote in today's New York Presidential primary. But in trolling for support, the candidates have found it unusually difficult to identify who is likely to vote for whom. Most population groups are divided in their views and many potential voters say they are still undecided.

Among the racial, ethnic, religious and geographic groups that campaigns typically aim at, New York City accounts for as much as 60 percent of the primary vote. Long Island and the four northern suburban counties customarily provide another 15 percent or so, with the rest from upstate. Statewide, Jews and white Catholics may each constitute about 3 in 10 voters and blacks, 1 in 4 or fewer.

Politicians are predicting a low turnout -- lower, at least, than four years ago. That was when more than half the enrolled Democrats in New York City voted, largely for or against the Rev. Jesse Jackson. The turnout may even be lower than in 1984, when it was about 40 percent statewide. With an unusually large number of unhappy Democrats this year, some experts think the turnout might even fall below the 31 percent who voted in 1980.

A low turnout customarily benefits the party's organization, which in most locales this year is supporting Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas.

Nevertheless, there might be unseen support for Edmund G. Brown Jr. The former California Governor's backers are highly committed, polls suggest, and their ranks include many college students, who may be under-represented in surveys of likely voters.

The ever-shifting profile of the Democratic electorate has been further blurred this year by Mr. Jackson's absence from the race, but he may yet figure in the outcome. Mr. Brown's declaration that Mr. Jackson would be his first choice as a running mate may have attracted some blacks to support him, but it may have galvanized more whites, particularly Jews, to vote for Mr. Clinton or for former Senator Paul E. Tsongas.

"It is as likely that the Clinton people will pull Brown votes as that the Brown people will pull Clinton votes," said Barry Feinstein, the Teamsters union leader, who is supporting Mr. Brown. "This time, we can't identify large areas or groups of people and say Jews are for so and so, and blacks are for that one and Hispanics are for this one."

Democrats in statewide primaries typically appeal to these constituencies: Blacks

In the 1988 Presidential primary, blacks, inspired by Mr. Jackson's campaign, constituted the largest single ethnic or racial group in New York City. This year, the proportion of blacks seems likely to shrink.

Seven in 10 blacks voted for Mr. Clinton in Southern and Midwestern primaries, but that proportion declined in Connecticut two weeks ago to 6 in 10. New York is the first major state in which Mr. Clinton's support among blacks has been seriously challenged.

Mr. Jackson's popularity among blacks has rarely been transferable to a white candidate, though. Moreover, northern blacks often demonstrate a greater affinity for a Southern white candidate like Mr. Clinton, the Arkansas Governor. Polls indicate that blacks are the most undecided group. Jews

Would Jews be crazy to vote for Jerry Brown?

"Who talks in those terms?" asked a chastened Edward I. Koch, the former New York City Mayor who four years ago suggested that Jews and other supporters of Israel would be crazy to vote for Mr. Jackson, who has expressed views over the years that many Jews find unpalatable. This year, Mr. Koch is urging New Yorkers to vote for Mr. Tsongas today.

Jewish voters, who are no more single-minded than blacks or other groups ordinarily are, have given Mr. Clinton a larger percentage of their support in public opinion polls than have members of any other religion. A mailing to Jewish voters contrasts Mr. Clinton's "unwavering" support for Israel with Mr. Brown's view that foreign aid should come after domestic needs are met.

The Clinton camp has also appealed to the elderly, many Jews among them, by raising concerns that Mr. Brown's proposed flat-rate income tax could jeopardize the Social Security system.

A major variable in today's vote could well be what Jews do to register a protest by defecting to Mr. Brown or Mr. Tsongas, despite an appeal sent to them by the Clinton camp, an oversized postcard that urges, "Don't throw away your vote."

"The hidden danger for Clinton," said John A. Marino, the Democratic state chairman, "is that Tsongas takes Jewish votes from Clinton." White Catholics

They constitute about 3 in 10 voters statewide, and Mr. Brown was leading among those polled, according to a survey conducted last week by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. Mr. Clinton's theme has been "fighting for the forgotten middle class," which includes many white Catholics. If the polls prove accurate, though, their antipathy toward Mr. Clinton may, in part, reflect discomfort with a Southern Baptist candidate. Labor

Organized labor, which can often guide wavering members, is split. Moreover, a predominantly black and Hispanic union like the hospital workers, which endorsed Mr. Brown, risks delivering votes for Mr. Clinton when it nudges its members to the polls.

Among the other large unions, the communication workers and transit workers are with Mr. Brown. The major non-uniformed public employee unions are supporting Mr. Clinton, as do the politically potent teachers unions.

Graphs: "Who Voted in the 1988 Primary" A profile of the electorate based on statewide polls by The New York Times and CBS News of 2,100 randomly selected voters leaving the polls in the 1988 Democratic primary. By County Brooklyn: 17.6% Queens: 14.7% Manhattan: 14.1% The Bronx: 9.7% Staten Island: 2.0% Nassau: 6.0% Suffolk: 3.5% Westchester: 4.9% Other: 17.6% By Religion Catholic: 34% Protestant: 30%* Jewish: 26% Other: 5% None: 5% * Includes other Christians By Race White: 70% Black: 24% Hispanic: 5% By Age 18-29: 14% 30-44: 30% 45-59: 26% 60+: 30% Other Voters from union households: 38% Voters who consider themselves to be politically moderate: 49%