Mar 202013


OppGF20, OppGA20, OppGF%




Player Team OppGF20
Patrick Dwyer Carolina 0.811
Brandon Sutter Carolina 0.811
Travis Moen Montreal 0.811
Carl Hagelin NY Rangers 0.806
Marcel Goc Florida 0.804
Tomas Plekanec Montreal 0.804
Brooks Laich Washington 0.800
Ryan Callahan NY Rangers 0.799
Patrik Elias New Jersey 0.798
Alexei Ponikarovsky New Jersey 0.795


Player Team OppGF20
Marcus Kruger Chicago 0.719
Jamal Mayers Chicago 0.720
Mark Letestu Columbus 0.721
Andrew Brunette Chicago 0.723
Andrew Cogliano Anaheim 0.723
Viktor Stalberg Chicago 0.724
Matt Halischuk Nashville 0.724
Kyle Chipchura Phoenix 0.724
Matt Belesky Anaheim 0.724
Cory Emmerton Detroit 0.724

Now, what happens when we look at OppGF%?

Player Team OppGF%
Mike Fisher Nashville 51.6%
Martin Havlat San Jose 51.4%
Vaclav Prospal Columbus 51.3%
Mike Cammalleri Calgary 51.3%
Martin Erat Nashville 51.3%
Sergei Kostitsyn Nashville 51.3%
Dave Bolland Chicago 51.2%
Rick Nash Columbus 51.2%
Travis Moen Montreal 51.0%
Patrick Marleau San Jose 51.0%


OppFF20, OppFA20, OppFF%




Here are the top 10 forwards in HARO QoC last year:

Player Team HARO QoC
Patrick Dwyer Carolina 6.0
Brandon Sutter Carolina 5.9
Travis Moen Montreal 5.8
Tomas Plekanec Montreal 5.8
Marcel Goc Florida 5.6
Carl Hagelin NY Rangers 5.5
Ryan Callahan NY Rangers 5.3
Brooks Laich Washington 5.3
Michael Grabner NY Islanders 5.2
Patrik Elias New Jersey 5.2


Here are the top 10 forwards in HARD QoC last year:

Player Team HARD QoC
Jamal Mayers Chicago 6.0
Marcus Kruger Chicago 5.9
Mark Letestu Columbus 5.8
Tim Jackman Calgary 5.3
Colin Fraser Los Angeles 5.2
Cory Emmerton Detroit 5.2
Matt Belesky Anaheim 5.2
Kyle Chipchura Phoenix 5.1
Andrew Brunette Chicago 5.1
Colton Gilles Columbus 5.0

And now the top 10 forwards in HART QoC last year:

Player Team HART QoC
Dave Bolland Chicago 3.2
Martin Havlat San Jose 3.0
Mark Letestu Columbus 2.5
Jeff Carter Los Angeles 2.5
Derick Brassard Columbus 2.5
Rick Nash Columbus 2.4
Mike Fisher Nashville 2.4
Vaclav Prospal Columbus 2.2
Ryan Getzlaf Anaheim 2.2
Viktor Stalberg Chicago 2.1

Shots and Corsi based QoC

You can also find similar QoC stats using shots as the base stat or using corsi (shots + shots that missed the net + shots that were blocked) on but they are all the same as above so I’ll not go into them in any detail.

CorsiRel QoC






Dec 152011

Yesterday I took a look at the Leafs players on the PK to see who has seen good result and who has seen bad results when they have been on the ice.  Today I do the same thing but look at 5v5 situations from the defensive side of things to see if there is any consistency between 5v5 and the PK.

The Goalies

Player Name GAA SV%
JAMES REIMER 1.41 94.6%
BEN SCRIVENS 2.82 90.6%

Interestingly, this is the exact opposite as we saw on the PK where Reimer had the worst save percentage and Scrivens had the highest.  We should have more confidence in these numbers so it is quite possible that Reimer’s poor results are primarily luck driven.  The question is, how much can he improve it?  Last year on the PK Reimer had an 85.6% save percentage which while is much better than this seasons 77.3% still is not good.  He ranked 34th of 40 goalies last season on the PK while he was 6th of 48 at 5v5.  Last year Reimer had a 93.3% 5v5 save percentage so he is actually better this season at 5v5.  Is it sustainable?  Time will tell.

The Defensemen

Player Name GAA FenA20
DION PHANEUF 2.40 12.11
CODY FRANSON 2.37 12.51
KEITH AULIE 4.50 12.74
JAKE GARDINER 1.86 14.82
LUKE SCHENN 2.19 16.63

For those regular readers, I believe players can drive shooting percentages (especially) and suppress oppositions shooting percentages (less so) but we are below the threshold of where small sample size issues outweigh the benefits of doing a goal analysis over a fenwick/corsi analysis.  So, when ranking players defensively we should focus on fenwick (for now).

Ughhh.  While Schenn’s GAA isn’t the worst (it’s actually pretty good relative to his teammates) his fenwick against is awful.  Significantly worse than his teammates.  While Schenn has had a slight bias towards defensive zone faceoffs it isn’t enough so to justify this difference in fenwick against.  Liles, Franson and Komisarek had a higher percentage of defensive zone faceoffs and had better results.  Taking it to a league level, of the 166 defensemen with 250 minutes of 5v5 ice time this season Schenn ranks second last in fenwick against per 20 minutes.  Only Derek Morris of Phoenix is worse.  In the summer I wrote an article about how poor Schenn is defensively and there isn’t a lot in the numbers above to change my opinion any.

Phaneuf, Gunnarsson and Gardiner were the primary offensive zone players which explains in part why Phaneuf and Gunnarsson lead the list but also show that Gardiner still struggles defensively as is often the case with a rookie.  Hopefully, unlike Schenn, he’ll improve with experience.

The Forwards

Player Name GA20 FenA20
MIKE BROWN 1.62 10.36
DAVID STECKEL 2.13 11.02
NAZEM KADRI 3.54 11.78
JAY ROSEHILL 1.41 12.02
JOEY CRABB 2.64 13.32
TIM CONNOLLY 1.62 13.53
JOE COLBORNE 2.79 14.43
PHIL KESSEL 2.46 15.47
JOFFREY LUPUL 2.82 16.47
TYLER BOZAK 2.82 16.57
COLTON ORR 0 20.38

Kessel, Lupul, Bozak – score a lot of goals, give up a lot of goals.  The three of them have very high fenwick against relative to their teammates.  This isn’t unsual for offensive players (high risk, high reward), but the best players in the league find a way to accomplish both offense and defense (i.e. Datsyuk).  The second line of Grabovski, MacArthur and Kulemin seem much more defensively responsible, but surprisingly they have a higher percentage of offensive zone starts than the Kessel line so they should have better numbers, but maybe not to the extent they do.  Brown, Steckel and Dupuis do seem like pretty solid defensive players 5v5.  Those fenwick against numbers for those three are quite good relative to the rest of the team, and the rest of the league.

Overall the Leafs are a decent enough defensive team at 5v5.  Especially once you look past the Kessel-Lupul-Bozak line up front and Schenn (and to a lesser extent Gardiner) on defense.  For some strange reason though, that hasn’t translated very well to the PK.  Why they suck so bad on the PK is pretty dumbfounding.