Japan’s Election Offers Little Choice

Voters have lost faith in Abenomics, but worry that replacing Mr. Abe would make things worse.

A staff member of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party posts a poster for the July 10 upper house election with the image of Shinzo Abe, Japan's Prime Minister and leader of the LDP, and other candidates' posters at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on June 22. Photo: Reuters

The campaign for Japan’s Upper House election on July 10 is shaping up to be one of the dullest in recent memory. This in spite of the stock market’s sharp decline and a spike in yen appreciation in reaction to Britain’s decision to say sayonara to the European Union. If Prime Minister Abe supported an open immigration policy, or if he had invited Syrian refugees to seek asylum in Japan, he would be in political trouble. But he has done next to nothing to moderate Japan’s closed-door immigration policy, so unlike the other G-7 leaders he doesn’t have to deal with that problem.

The Democratic Party, Japan’s floundering and unpopular main opposition party, can’t blame Mr. Abe for Brexit. And it can’t criticize him for delaying another consumption-tax increase, because the Democrats also favored postponement.

Party Chairman Katsuya Okada’s efforts to make opposition to constitutional revision the key issue in the campaign has gained little traction. Voters don’t believe that even a strong victory by Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party would lead to constitutional revision anytime soon. The prime minister, knowing that voters are focused on the economy, was playing down the constitutional issue even before the British shock.

The LDP and other parties that favor constitutional revision may win the two-thirds of seats needed to pass a bill to put a constitutional amendment before the public in a referendum. Mr. Abe would need use up a lot of his political capital on this issue, which he feels passionate about. That means less attention from the top to economic reform.

The most likely upshot would be a bitter debate and no agreement on what should be changed in the Constitution. The Komeito party supports adding an environmental-protection clause but opposes rewriting any of the Constitution’s existing articles, including the no-war commitment enshrined in Article 9. The LDP may get a majority of seats on its own but it cannot get a two-thirds without the Komeito.

An LDP majority would be its first in 27 years, a development that would place the prime minister in a stronger position than ever before, both within the LDP and toward his party’s coalition partner, the Komeito. It would further weaken the Democratic Party, precipitating a leadership crisis and possibly threatening its very existence.

Never in Japan’s postwar history has the political opposition been as enfeebled as it is now. Never has it failed so miserably to offer the public a credible alternative to rule or even a coherent critique of the government’s policies.

That’s why widespread public disappointment with the government’s economic policies hasn’t hurt Mr. Abe politically. The prevailing sentiment is that he has done better than his predecessors, and replacing him with another LDP leader, let alone an opposition coalition government, would only make matters worse—especially now that the global economy is in turmoil.

Nonetheless there is the possibility that public opinion polls forecasting a big LDP victory may produce unexpected gains for the opposition. That possibility increases if the stock market recovers some of its losses, the yen is pushed down by currency intervention by the Finance Ministry and by bold action by the Bank of Japan, and the sense of crisis is eased.

Voting behavior in Japan’s Upper House elections often resembles American voting in midterm Congressional elections. It is an opportunity for the voters to send a message to the party in power that they aren’t satisfied with its performance without actually driving it out of office.

Voters aren’t enthralled with Mr. Abe and don’t feel the benefits of Abenomics. Confidence that the LDP will be victorious may lead some voters to cast ballots for opposition-party candidates just to try to keep the LDP’s toes to the fire.

The bottom line on the election is this: The LDP will win a majority of seats, Mr. Abe’s hold on power will become even more secure, constitutional revision won’t happen, the political opposition will be in even worse shape than it is currently, and no new and bold economic policies will result. What you see of Abenomics today is what you will continue to see after the election. For better or for worse, steady as you go is the watchword for the Japanese voter.

Mr. Curtis is an emeritus professor of political science at Columbia University.
