[deleted] -7 points-6 points 1 year ago


Ivankas_OrangeWaffle 5 points6 points 1 year ago

Well, I just you know how unfavorable a polling error can be to your party now. Its almost like Karma came back around from 2016.

[deleted] -3 points-2 points 1 year ago


Ivankas_OrangeWaffle 6 points7 points 1 year ago

magic isn't real.

How do you explain the elf we have as an AG?

cloverfoot 2 points3 points 1 year ago

Would someone give Sessions a sock, already?

[deleted] -2 points-1 points 1 year ago


NEEThimesamaMichigan 2 points3 points 1 year ago

FiveThirtyEight also said this. Do you understand how probability works?

gravescd 2 points3 points 1 year ago

People don't get how this stuff works generally. Probabilistic vs deterministic.

If a poll said Candidate X is favored 70-30, and the result is 75-25, the poll was "right". If it projects 49.9-50.1 and the result is 50.1-49.9, the poll was "wrong" despite being far more accurate.

The 50% mark is an arbitrary determiner that has nothing to do with the probability of a specific numerical outcome. A poll can be extremely accurate despite being on the wrong side of 50%.

NEEThimesamaMichigan 1 point2 points 1 year ago

The simplest way I've seen it made clear is the two needles on the NYT's election results page. One shows the likely margin of victory, one shows the likely outcome. Watching them moves as results come in makes the difference obvious.

JDriley 2 points3 points 1 year ago

He also said this election's polling made it very difficult to predict. I read almost everything 538 put out about this election and it never seemed irrational

NEEThimesamaMichigan 2 points3 points 1 year ago

Even their 2016 presidential election predictions were perfectly rational. They said right before election day that Clinton had a pretty narrow path to an electoral college victory, people just focus on the high percentage they gave to Clinton in a stupid attempt to discredit 538.

JDriley 2 points3 points 1 year ago

Which is funny because before the election people discreditted 538 because they gave Trump too high of a percentage of winning. Everybody else game him around 10% and they game him about 34%


I rolled a dice, and it came up 6!


Please, learn probabilities.

[deleted] 0 points1 point 1 year ago


TrustmeIreddit 1 point2 points 1 year ago

