Tuesday, February 10, 2009

A New Poll from Strategic Counsel is odd...


Liberals - 33%
Conservatives - 32%
New Democrats - 17%
Greens - 13%
Bloc Quebecois - 5%


Greens - 26%
Liberals - 24%
Bloc Quebecois - 22%
Conservatives - 17%
New Democrats - 12%






  1. Most polls these days include a disclaimer - accurate within 3-5 % 19 out of 20 times. In other words because we are dealing with very small samples sizes 5 % of the time the results will be meaningless. However there is no scientific way to know which polls are the meaningless ones, although in some cases it may seem pretty obvious.

  2. The Strategic Counsel poll had a 6% margin of error for Quebec. That means the Greens could be as low as 20% - or the highest they've ever polled in any province, ever.

  3. Though this is clearly the 1 time out of 20, as you allude to, you'd think Strategic Counsel would recognise that and point it out, rather than pretend that the Greens are really the favourite party in Quebec.


