CUV 0.49% $30.91 clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

now for some maths...

  1. 158 Posts.
    According to Epitan's website the US market for solarium use is $8 Billion a year. So I guess that world wide solarium use would be say...$20 Billion. Lets say that the fake tan industry is about $4 Billion a year.

    That makes $24 Billion that people spend on tanning each year worldwide.

    Considering that melanotan will is a vastly superior product to either solariums or fake tans, lets be conservative and say that Epitan will take say 30% (I reckon it will end up being close to 100%) of this $24 Billion. This equals $7.2 Billion.

    And there will heaps of people that would like a tan but wont risk cancer for it- say another $3 Billion.
    Total income = $10.2 Billion

    Lets say they pay their JV partner $2.2 Billion for manufacturing and distribution.
    That leaves $8 Billion

    Minus $1 Billion for costs (stationary, toilet paper, coffee and tea for the tearoom and Office parties)
    Leaves $7 Billion. Subtract 30% company tax
    Leaves $4.9 Billion

    When companies become cashflow positive they do one or more of the following:
    1) Reinvest the profits into expansion or further R & D. (Smart companies get >$1 for every dollar reinvested and dumb ones get <$1 for every dollar invested.
    2) Reward the share holders (dividends)
    3) Share buybacks
    4) Rape and pillage the company- then piss off to Spain.

    Lets assume that buy this stage the company will have issued another 40 million shares - bringing the total number of shares to about 150 million. If $4 Billion gets returned to share holders (with $900 million in bonuses for the lab rats and directors) that means a annual dividend of $26.67 per share!

    At say a 8% yeild that makes a share price of $333. If they take 60% of the market that makes $667 per share. Someone please slap some sense into me!
    I think the figures I have used are huge but not unrealistic.
    Have I missed anything? Any comments?

    .....Assuming the trials work!
(20min delay)
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