The Below is my two cents of tribute in the form of a poem to the Martyre’s families for whom the pain begins only now. This poem also highlights the soft approach that the leaders of India irrespective of their political parties have taken against the anti-India groups. Hope this incident will awake the conscience of the leadership and this time we will not have a token operation followed by rounds of celebration only to pacify the public sentiments. The solution this time must be lasting and nothing short of an all out war for the destruction of Pakistan. This war is only inevitable and the delay will only raise the stakes.


                       – अमिताभ पांडेय
फिर से वो ही आग जलेगी, फिर से वो पानी बरसेगा,
बबली का दिल रो रो कर फिर से पापा को तरसेगा ।
माँ के सूखी छाती भी सोचे मुन्ना कैसा होगा,
शायद निंदा करते नेता के मन में जिंदा होगा ।
फिर से आंगन में टूटी चूड़ी के अरमान दफन होंगे,
धुंधलाती आंखों वाली बूढ़ी लाठी पर खूब वज़न होंगे ।
टीवी के पर्दे पर फिर से आज वही नाटक होगा, 
कोई दल का नेता रूप बदल के फिर बैठा होगा ।
आग लगेगी शव में या फिर कफन दफन होगा,
इस बार तिरंगा पेटी के अंदर कौन अंग होगा ।
हाय किस्मत फूटी हम अलबेलों के मेले में,
खूब पसौरि दूध मलाई जयचंदों के ठेले में ।
हर बार यही सुनते हैं अब संग्राम बड़ा भीषण होगा,
नेता जी बदले हैं अब न कोई सूर्य ग्रहण होगा ।
सिसक सिसक कर बबली अपने मन को समझा लेती है,
और किताबों के पन्नों में खुद को फिर उलझा लेती है ।


India is today celebrating Makar Sankranti and people are wishing each other on this auspicious day. This auspicious day is celebrated in different parts of India in different ways such as Lohri, sankrant, kite festival etc. It is also celebrated as Uttarayan, a six month period considered very auspicious and in which Bhishma Pitamah, a great warrior in the Greater India war (Mahabharata) chose to leave his mortal body. However while it is a fact that Uttarayan was once coninciding with Makar Sankranti (the point in the celestial sphere when earth enters the zodiac sign of capricorn) it is no more true in our times.

Uttarayan is made up of two words – Uttar (North) and Ayan (motion). It can mean one of the two things either movement in north or movement towards north. However the current makar sankranti is none of it and therefore does not qualify to be Uttarayan.

So lets understand it from the motion of Sun as seen from a given point on the equator. From the horizon where when the Sun rises, it can be understood to be in the north and when it sets it goes to the south. However, the direction of Sun’s motion is northward from midnight point (under our feet) to the noon point (zenith) above our head. From noon to midnight the sun starts descending and becomes southward and finally goes into south while it sets on the horizon. This analogy was given only to explain those who are not very familiar with celestial terminologies. In the celestial plain something similar happens. Lets understand it.

Due to the axial tilt of earth celestial equator cuts the ecliptic on two points which are exactly
opposite each other. These points are called as vernal equinox and automnal equinox. Vernal equinox falls near 21st march and automonal equinox falls near 21st september. These are also the times when days and nights are equal on the equator. Both the ecliptic and celestial equator forms an angle which is equal to the tilt of the earth i.e., 23.5 degrees. In the celestial plain the earth is on the north of the celestial plain from 21st march to 21st september with the point near 21st June being the highest altitude. 21st June is also the longest day and is called summer solistice. From Summer solitice the earth starts descending towards south and cuts the celestial plain on 21st september when it enters south of celestial plain.

Now the question is why there is this misconception on Uttarayan. The answer is that the equinoxes are moving clockwise at a rate of 50.8 seconds per year and in 70.8 years they nearly make a difference of a day. So every 70.8 years all the four points mentioned above i.e., vernal equinox, summer solistice, automnal equinox and winter solistice will move a day backward. So nearly 6360 years later the winter solistice that today falls on 21st december will be on 21st June which will become the point of shortest day.

The question therefore is whether Uttarayan is the six month period of northward motion which is between winter solistice of 21st december to summer solistic of 21st June or Uttarayan is the motion in the north which is from vernal equinox when sun actually enters into the northern zone and remains until 21st september which is the point of automnal equinox. Scholars like Bal Gangadhar Tilak have advocated for the later which is the motion in the north. To me while it looks more logical, I leave this artical open ended to elicit more views.

The medieval period or the dark age of India was known for the destruction of vast amount of knowledge base, libraries, scientific research etc. Ancient India was full of astronomical observatories, ruins of which we can still find at various historical places. The purpose of these laboratories was to carefully observe celestial objects and correct the periodical anamolies of time. That however ceased to happen with series of external invasions by barbarians and thousand of years long struggle for the survival of the civilisation. The time has now come when serious research on ancient Indian civilisation must be done for the greater benefit of humanity.







My Questions on FDI









Unanswered questions:


Some economists have been expressing apprehensions of US and EU using India as an external markets to avoid the debt crisis they are facing. While the possibility of India accepting such a proposal is very high because Indian Government desperately needs more debt to meet its exponentially growing fiscal deficit and falling growth, I am convinced that even such a move will not help US and EU in avoiding the ongoing debt crisis and I also believe the current crisis is unfixable now within the framework of current financial system.

The author of one such post I read a few days back says that if India is used as an external market, even a billion dollar that is sucked out of the country can create 20,000 jobs in US and EU. But that will also mean a contraction of 60 billion dollar in India. This is because the velocity of money (money changing hands from one person to other person) in india for $1 is $60.

However, while the billion dollar per se is not even a peanut in the development plan of the economy of the size of US and EU but the key point that needs to be understood here is that EVEN THIS BILLION DOLLAR WILL NOT CREATE ANY PRODUCTIVE JOBS IN THEIR ECONOMY. The reason is that it is not absence of market or consumption that is preventing job creation but due to debt becoming difficult, the jobs sustained on borrowed money are reducing. US and EU DO NOT NEED ANY EXTERNAL MARKET, THEY ALREADY HAVE A HUGE MARKET IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY and that is why they have such a huge trade deficits. The demand contraction there is NOT due to surplus production which requires external market for consumption and to sustain production and thus employment in the economy. The Demand contraction there is due to debt restriction because it is debt which has enabled most of the jobs in these countries and which are in the service sector. These jobs in service sector are creating more consumers and in the absence of required production, the country in increasingly depending on imports thereby increasing trade deficits.  Infact, in this era of easy money, the only thing governments do is to create money from thin air and flood the economy with cheap money without bothering if there is enough production to meet this propped up demand. Often lack of credit in 1930 depression is cited as an explanation on why credit is required, which is though true yet ignores the fact that the economy was productive at that time and running massive trade surplus. Here the situation is different. The economy is not producing and therefore running massive trade deficits to meet the demands propped up by phony service sector jobs. They started abjuring production after WW2 and eventually (in 80s) manufacturing was outsourced to China and Services to nations like India (remember the “buffalo to banglore” catchwords). By selling there cattles and farms, they have made huge money but who is the beneficiary of this globalisation? It is not the common people but the 1% rich, banking and corporate cartel. It is this greedy 1% that is stealing jobs from US and EU citizens.

All this while, when the citizens of these debt-ridden countries were enjoying debt financed prosperity, their economy was not producing. However because of the past credit worthiness, countries like China, Japan etc have not only been providing them goods but also the proceeds from the sold goods are being invested in buying government bonds. Now the problem is that these debt ridden countries like US and EU do not have enough manufacturing left, so the increase in jobs are only taking place in the service sector which means people consuming more. And this consumption is further increasing trade deficit and in turn debt.

Now the problem is why can’t we maintain a certain level of deficit and avoid a collapse? So it is around 1 trillion USD for US which China and Japan and US bond holders, QE etc all together are able to fulfill then whats the problem? First of all, same deficit each year does not mean same level of debt. Deficit each year gets accumulated and increase total debt and growing debt means growing interest payment. So maintaining same level of deficit means increasing interest payments. Secondly, the greedy corporate cartel has an obsession with growth. And the moment growth stops they start throwing people out starting reverse multiplier effect and a slow down (resulting in mortgage defaults etc). THEREFORE EXTERNAL MARKETS ARE NOT GOING TO HELP THEM. If they at all need market then they should focus on domestic market to reduce their trade deficit.

India, per se however may likely to do all wrong things as far as this UPA2 government is there and I strongly believe they will offer India as a market to US & EU, resulting in an inflation explosion because when foreign companies will start sucking out their profit, rupee will further get devalued and inflation will skyrocket. The Indian government anyway have no option but to seek more debt (to postpone the crisis) else the austerity measures will eventually result in liquidity crisis and bank collapse.

For the readers of this blog I would like to share following two very good videos to watch.

Unfixable by Chrismartenson: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WBiTnBwSWc

Tony Robbins on magnitude of debt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jboTeS9Okak&feature=share









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