National Equations

Political geography has determined alliance formation in the 1990s, ruling out effective all-India tie-ups for the BJP, Congress and the UF.

Is an all-India Cong-UF pact possible?

It is an Appealing Idea. But Compulsions of Political Geography dictate that it remains no more than an idea. The give-and-take of a successful alliance requires one of the partners be in a position to give and the other to benefit from what it is given. In some of the north Indian states, the Congress is well-entrenched, with more than 35 percent votes, but the United Front (UF) is practically non-existent there. In West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, the Congress and the UF are leading political competitors and cannot afford to give to or take from each other. In Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, they could have a tie-up and collectively gain from it, but their history of animosity makes such a partnership difficult, if not impossible. An alliance is possible in Uttar Pradesh or Maharashtra but not with the entire UF.Apparently, anti-BJP politics has to be woven in colours drawn from local settings.

Can the BJP form an all-India front?

What Hampers The BJP'S quest for an all-India alliance is the highly skewed distribution of its votes. In states in the north and west, it is too strong to need an ally, while along the coastal belt running from Kerala to West Bengal, with the possible exception of Orissa now, it is too weak to be able to contribute substantially to an alliance. Its recent alliances in states like Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh are significant symbolic achievements, but unlikely to help it in manufacturing a majority at the Centre. In between these extreme belts is the middle range of states where the BJP can do with allies. In most of these, it already has acquired one. In the process, it has learnt to live with what it had rejected earlier as regionalism. Yet, the process is far from complete. In Assam, Goa and Uttar Pradesh, it is still looking for a suitable partner, its exclusivist politics having prevented an alliance so far.

Why is the BSP such a crucial factor?
Or, To Put The Question Differently, why was virtually every party present at Kanshi Ram's much-publicised reception to celebrate the BSP's newly acquired status of a national party? The answer is not far to seek: the party is emerging as the critical "spoiler" of electoral contests in the north. It won only 11 seats and was runner up in 21 in the 1996 elections, but it made the difference between victory and defeat for another party in as many as 64 seats. In a situation where there is close competition between major opponents, the position of a small, yet free, floating agent can become critical. On its part, the BSP needs alliances to survive. Its social constituency is small and dispersed across the country. Hence it cannot hope to convert its votes into seats without an ally. At the same time it cannot afford to go in for permanent alliances, lest it is gobbled up by a bigger partner. Therefore, the politics of promiscuity.

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