Plummer Gartner 2013

Every year, Gartner's analysts compile a list of "strategic predictions" that they think could be particularly disruptive. This year, Gartner Managing VP Daryl Plummer (above) presented the list, talking about how IT disruptions now go beyond the traditional IT function, and how IT now changes the way we live, work and play. He focused on four big disruptions including the "digital industrial revolution," smart machines, digital business, and the Internet of Things.   

This is different from the list they create for the technology trends they think will have the biggest potential for significant enterprise impact over the next three years (which I'll cover in my next post) as those tend to be more conservative. Instead, some of this is pretty speculative. For instance, Plummer said that considering what is happening with smart machines, "Skynet is not far off."  

Below are the predictions and some thoughts.


Plummer focused on how the digital industrial revolution, in particular 3D printing, is leading to "freedom and chaos." He touched on 3D printing of guns and how 3D printing may offset the price advantage of making things in China. But the focus of this prediction is on more unusual topics such as "bioprinting," including printing human skin for burn victims. He said there will be successful and unsuccessful transplants and other controversial uses. This may eventually be a big issue, but while I'm bullish about 3D printing, I think the technology likely moves slower than some predict.


As 3D printing grows significantly, Plummer said piracy will become a bigger issue, as people in other countries copy products designed in the west. That seems to make sense to me; already when you walk around any big city and you see counterfeit or knock-off products everywhere.


On digital business in general, Plummer talked about "accessorizing" businesses that are already becoming digital. While I certainly agree that more businesses are becoming digital, I think a lot of this depends on the definition. I do expect a lot of innovation already goes through longstanding practices such as focus groups and more direct interactions with customers on social networks, but that doesn't seem disruptive. I like Kickstarter, Indiegogo and the like, but have a hard time imagining that's where innovation really comes from.

4. By 2017, 80 percent of consumers will collect, track, and barter their personal data for cost savings, convenience, and customization.  

Plummer said business is getting more personal and customers are getting smarter about what data they share and what they are getting for sharing it. All of that makes sense to me and if you consider that everyone who posts on Facebook or other social sites is trading some personal data for convenience, you can make a case for that 80 percent number. Still I'm not at all sure most consumers will more consciously "sell" their personal data; instead I think a lot of this happens without people thinking about it.


"We are delusional if we think we can protect everything," Plummer said. As a result, he expects we'll see more "Snowden moments." Instead we need to focus on the things that really need to be protected. I don't expect a lot of material to be explicitly made less confidential, but I do expect a lot of companies will refocus security only on the most important information.


Plummer expects another Occupy Wall Street movement, this one focused on the loss of jobs. The industrial revolution created jobs, but the digital industrial revolution is not following suit, since it requires less people to do jobs. For example, it took Kodak 130,000 people to do what Instagram does with 13. Gmail is replacing the United States Postal Service, and search and tablets has replaced libraries and books. Plummer said his 9-year old son had never seen a physical book, though I think he's exaggerating. I'm a huge fan of the way libraries have been reinventing themselves but I think there are many questions about the changes in the labor market, and new jobs in this economy. Plummer also expects a rise in bartering-based systems and voluntary jobs by 2015, which I think may be a bit too soon.


Plummer joked about Skynet, but really talked about how machine learning is getting smarter, and how automobiles autonomous parallel parking and braking are becoming standard features. Insurance premiums will decrease as a result, he said. Already, systems such as airbags can't be overridden. While a lot of this depends on definitions, I do think we will see more autonomous systems.


We want personal assistants that are smarter and smarter, he said, ranging from Siri to "smart advisors" on insurance websites. What Plummer really wants, he said, is something that joins "a Siri front-end with a Watson back-end." He talked about the growth in smarter systems that do "deep learning," predicting that 1.5 percent of IBM's revenue should be from Watson by the end of 2015, growing to 10 percent by the end of 2018. I don't know about the specific revenue predictions, and the actual prediction is so nebulous it could mean anything, but I do think smarter, more intelligent machines will be part of all of our lives.


As part of the move to smart machines, Gartner is very optimistic about "learning machines," or computers that can actually make inferences based on data. Plummer said the number of speech recognition apps will double next year, with car manufacturers adopting learning systems by 2015. He talked about deep neural networks, specifically calling out TrueNorth's Neurosynaptic chips. And he said enterprises need to prepare for "programming by example" rather than using traditional programming environments. Obviously Watson got a lot of attention, and it's easy to see that kind of technology grow into more applications over the next four years. If you've noticed how quickly things like Siri and Google Now have been improving, this is a very believable prediction.


Finally, Plummer turned to the Internet of Things, noting when you walk down a block in a major city, you're likely to be photographed by at least 10 cameras. Depending on what you count, we could have 15 billion or even one billion smart "things" by 2020, including everything from smart meters to health monitors. "We will wear technology like we wear clothes," he said. I do believe we'll see a lot more wearable devices, but five percent of sales seems awfully high.

After his talk, I had the opportunity to chat with Plummer about the big keynote and these predictions, and noted how little time Gartner spent talking about two of the four forces in the company's "nexus of forces" issues: social and cloud. (The other two are mobile and information, which were certainly represented.) He noted there are many other sessions on cloud, and that cloud is the number two topic on the list of CIO concerns behind security. But the firm focused a lot on cloud in the past few years, and it is now a dominant part of everyone's thinking. On social, he said the company de-emphasized that more deliberately. There is a social angle to everything, but maybe not social media; the topic has become of less interest to the audience.

I was particularly intrigued by a comment he made during the presentation about the "not so quiet" IT crisis brewing, with organizations spending so much time building complex and secure systems that we can't get to enough of the projects that we want. Just about every CIO I've talked to has had similar thoughts. Plummer's prescription: most of the time, he said, "Good enough is damn good enough."