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The investigation and cleanup that follows a plane crash like the one in Trinity Bay

It could take more than a year to find out why a Boeing 767 crashed into Trinity Bay, a National Transportation Safety Board official said Sunday.

As some experts conduct a detailed analysis into the weather, plane and crew involved in this incident, workers will begin cleaning spilled jet fuel and searching for evidence in a debris field that measures roughly 200 yards long by about 100 yards wide.

With so much to consider, where do investigators begin? Anthony Roman, president of global investigation and risk management firm Roman & Associates, said such investigations start with big, daunting questions as officials attempt to rule out terrorism or federal crime in the crash that killed the three people on board.

"An aircraft disaster of this type is considered a crime scene first until it's proven to be an accident," he said.

More on the crash: 3 confirmed dead after Boeing 767 cargo plane's nose dive into Trinity Bay

Speaking of the situation broadly, with no specific knowledge of this incident, Roman said the debris from the cargo plane will be collected as evidence for the FBI and NTSB. The Coast Guard confirmed that it was helping recover packages for the NTSB.

Atlas Air flight 3591, flying on behalf of Amazon Prime, was flying from Miami to Bush Intercontinental Airport when it crashed. Since Miami is a port city, Roman said officials will likely scrutinize the plane's cargo. They could track where that cargo originally came from, and if the international cargo was scanned with the proper security protocols before being loaded onto the jet. They could also conduct background checks on the shipping companies.

Those on board the plane could be examined, too. There could be background checks, and perhaps investigators will run forensics on their social media, computers and phone records. Interviews would be conducted if needed.

Once such malicious intents are ruled out, investigators will likely look at weather and the plane itself.

A change of wind speeds and directions caused by heavy or moderate rain can create wind shear. When a plane is flying lower and slower before landing, this may lead to an aerodynamic stall, Roman said. This causes the nose to drop because there's a sudden and immediate loss of aerodynamic lift at the wings. If not recognized and addressed early, this can sometimes be unrecoverable.

Another cause that could be examined is the inadvertent shift of cargo. Roman said this is rare, but it could put the plane out of balance and cause a stall. Also rare is malfunctions with the components used for flight control. And finally, investigators could consider if a pilot had a heart attack or other medical emergency.

"All of these factors will be looked into," he said.

The investigation's time frame varies based on what officials can quickly rule out and if the plane's black boxes are recovered. NTSB chairman Robert Sumwalt said retrieving those boxes could be difficult as mud might reduce the effectiveness of underwater locator beacons. He said the search may include scuba divers, wading through the debris field or dredging.

"Recovering those is critical to this investigation," he said. "It is a painstaking process, but it is a high priority for the NTSB."

And as the cause is investigated, officials will be addressing environmental concerns, too.
The degree of the environmental impact will depend on a variety of factors, including the amount of jet fuel the plane was carrying when it crashed. Chambers County Sheriff Brian Hawthorne said there is a slight fuel smell, but he hasn't seen much of a sheen.

Jet fuel is similar to diesel or kerosene. It's lighter than water, meaning it will float and can evaporate. But it's a little heavier than gasoline, meaning it won't evaporate as quickly as gasoline, said Ronald Sass, professor emeritus of biogeochemistry at Rice University.

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"It's not easy to clean something off the bottom," Sass said. "It's much easier to skim something off the top."

The U.S. Coast Guard sent pollution responders to the Trinity Bay incident, and the Chambers County Sheriff's Office said containment booms were set up downstream on Saturday.

Jim Blackburn, an environmental lawyer and professor of civil engineering at Rice University, identified containing fuel as the first priority in any spill. And in this region, specifically, he said the second priority should be protecting the marshes, which tend to act as nurseries.

Shrimp, for instance, breed in the open waters, and then the young float into the marshes. Brown shrimp are headed into the marshes around this time of year, said Bill Balboa, executive director of the Matagorda Bay Foundation. Trinity Bay also has a lot of blue crabs.

So there could be some near-term effects, but environmentalists didn't expect the long-term effects to be too severe.

"Bays are very resilient things," Balboa said, "and so it will recover."

R.A. Schuetz contributed to this report.
