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Sky Views: A tiny bit of hope in the fight against fake news

Disinformation and fake news has become a growing problem
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Last week, there was some good news about disinformation. It wasn't a very big piece of news. It wasn't even a definite success. But still, silver linings and all that. The growth of disinformation means we're in desperate need of them.

New figures compiled by researchers at Oxford University show the scale of the infection. Across the world, governments and political parties in 70 countries coordinated social media manipulation campaigns in 2019, up from 48 in 2018 and 28 in 2017. That's growth that would have a Silicon Valley venture capitalist rubbing their hands with glee - and, the researchers make clear, it's just getting started.

The example of China is a sign of things to come. Like many authoritarian regimes, it has long used its own internet platforms to attack critics and drown out dissenting opinions. Then came the protests in Hong Kong. That, the researchers say, prompted China to start "aggressively" spreading its message abroad, becoming "a major player in the global disinformation order".

China attempted to spread disinformation following the Hong Kong protests
Image: China attempted to spread disinformation following the Hong Kong protests

How did China push its disinformation? Via Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, of course. "Social media has become co-opted by many authoritarian regimes," the researchers write, describing in graphic detail the ways in which communication platforms now function as tools for propaganda.

And remember, this is just the organised stuff. Rumours, clickbait and confused half-truths - the backwash we swallow every time we go online - weren't even in the scope of the study.

It's not just authoritarian regimes coordinating disinformation, but countries closer to home - at home, in fact, if you're reading this in the UK.

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In August, Middle East Eye revealed that a social network for young people was being secretly run by the Home Office as part of its anti-terror strategy. This Is Woke promised to "counter fake news and champion authentic voices". But when Middle East Eye spoke to people featured in its videos, they didn't know they were part of a government programme.

The Home Office defended its operations, telling BBC News it was "committed to using all of the tools available to counter the threat from terrorism in the UK". But in a way, that's the point - now the tools are available, everyone's committed to using them, or risk falling behind. Perhaps the British government is doing so ethically, but it feels uncomfortably like the latest move in a disinformation arms race. Actual peace - as opposed to suppression of opposing views - seems very far off.

WhatsApp introduced a new measure to prevent the spread of disinformation
Image: WhatsApp introduced a new measure to prevent the spread of disinformation

At this point, it's customary to blame the tech companies for not investing in moderation on their platforms. Yet while that's undoubtedly true, it's hard to believe that moderation will bring about disarmament online, as the example above shows. Is This is Woke disinformation? Asking a group of experts to decide - as Facebook plans to do with its so-called "supreme court" - is a recipe for greater fury online. Just ask the BBC Complaints Unit how that works out.

Instead, perhaps we should look in another direction - which is where that piece of good news I mentioned earlier comes in. In January 2019, WhatsApp limited how often messages can be forwarded to groups, after it was used to spread disinformation in India and Brazil. The company dropped the total limit from 20 to five. A new study suggests the change has been effective.

Researchers at New York University joined thousands of large public groups in Brazil, India, and Indonesia, which they scraped to collect six million public messages. From this, they were able to develop a virtual network, which they used to run simulations on the effect of different limits. The result? Under the new limit, 80% of messages died within two days, rather than propagating throughout the network. WhatsApp's own analysis tells a similar story. It suggests the new limit has decreased the total number of forwarded messages by 25%.

Rowland Manthorpe, technology correspondent

The system isn't perfect. Messages can still go viral, leading the researchers to warn that "misinformation campaigns headed by professional teams with an interest in affecting a political scenario might attempt to create very alarming fake content, that has a high potential to get viral". Even so, the approach is promising.

Rather than attempting to identify and remove disinformation, it simply makes information as a whole move more slowly. Most people won't notice, but the organisers of disinformation campaigns definitely will. They won't be stopped, of course, but at least they'll have to work for it. As it is, disinformation is so cheap and easy it's an investment that's bound to pay off.

Think of it as the necessary reintroduction of friction to the media. Now, did I ever tell you about my campaign to ban the quote tweet?


Previously on Sky Views: Beth Rigby - Conference has done wonders for a PM on the ropes just a few days ago