Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Things not mentioned

non-waterproof camera to sneak a picture.





What a difference today



That isn't in the cruising magazines either.


Mike said...

That's interesting what you mentioned about the NOAA weather forecasts not being up to par. Out of curiosity, what do you think is the best resource to use?



TJ said...

Mike, so far as I know most of the weather forecasting done in the US uses information gathered and discriminated by NOAA. (Though I suspect the military has some propitiatory souses of their own, sources unavailable to the civilian population. Whether or not those provide more accurate forecasts, if they really do exist, is anyone's guess.) That NOAA information is then utilized by different organizations using different models, algorithms, and historical references in order to tailor the forecasts for specific needs. We use GRIB files, NOAA's marine forecasts, and low altitude Prognostic Charts (those aimed mostly at the Aviation world) for the majority of our weather. Usually all three are much alike, especially in the 24 to 36 hour range. Deviations tend to build up as the time scale stretches out, and we put very little faith in 10 forecasts even if they all agree.

When there is a dispute between GRIBS, M/Fs, and Progs in the short term, my experience is that the Prog charts are the most likely to be the more accurate. They are also the least detailed but, having spent a career with Progs as a primary weather source, I can glean a lot of information from them. A good example is the Progs showing isobars packed close together suggesting winds speeds will be higher than the GRIBS or M/Fs sometimes state. I'll go with the Progs every time and have yet to feel like that was a wrong call. Progs are also very good at picturing the location and movement of cold fronts and dry lines. (Dry lines are where the thunderstorms often cook off, and are usually located well ahead of an advancing cold front.) There are mid and high level Progs as well, but that information is a bit more esoteric.

When there is a disagreement we go with the least favorable forecast even if one stands alone in reference to the other two. We tend to take the most conservative path given the least favorable forecast. Which is why, even though the European models suggested Joaquin would turn far out to sea, we prepped the boat and then got a hotel reservation far inland.
We have tried several different places to find reliable and easily understood information on the Gulf Stream. So far I haven't found one that strikes me as “the one” but the information is out there to be dug up.

As our last line of defense both Deb and I check weather independently of the other. If either of us doesn't like what we see we stay put or go find a place to hide. We still take our lumps but, so far, we feel like we are doing okay in the “don't take on the scary stuff” department.