Will N.J. Republican primary matter this year? We may know after Tuesday

Should the candidate with the most delegates win?

WASHINGTON -- By the time New Jerseyans vote in their June presidential primary, they generally know who their nominee is going to be.

But this year may be different.

In fact, Tuesday's Republican primaries, when voters in Florida and Ohio get their say, could determine whether New Jersey matters this year.

If businessman Donald Trump doesn't win big Tuesday, New Jersey's 51 delegates could make the difference between whether or not he will be celebrating a first-ballot victory at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July or having to make a deal to try to get the nomination.

"New Jersey could literally be the deciding factor as to whether there is a brokered convention or not," Republican consultant Chris Russell said.

It all depends on whether U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich can win their home states. If they do,  they are likely to remain in the Republican presidential race, making it harder for front-runner Trump to accumulate the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination.

"All bets are off if he doesn't lock it up after Tuesday," Republican consultant Craig Stevens said. "It will make it harder for anybody to get a majority."

In order to stop Trump or U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas from winning, the GOP leadership is "willing to roll the dice and hope that Marco Rubio or John Kasich can somehow reignite their campaigns enough to prevent Trump or Cruz from getting enough delegates to lock it up before the convention," said Matthew Hale, a professor of political science at Seton Hall University.

"That could mean they stay around even after they are mathematically eliminated, which would increase the likelihood that New Jersey will matter."

That would make New Jersey's cache of delegates, awarded en masse to the winner of the June 7 primary, a coveted prize.

For Trump, who owns three golf courses in the state and formerly owned three New Jersey casinos, it could sew up the race. For the others, it could provide them with an opportunity to deprive him of the delegate majority needed to secure the nomination.

"If it means stopping him from getting the majority of delegates, they'll have to fight," Russell said. "As long as there is more than one credible candidate by the time it gets to New Jersey, you'll see a real campaign."

This is the time when Gov. Chris Christie's endorsement of Trump could have its biggest impact.

"If Governor Christie does the job we all expect him to do, he will deliver that state to Trump," said Craig Engle, counsel to the presidential campaigns of former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and former New York Gov. George Pataki.

Not necessarily, Russell said.

"If the governor puts his muscle behind Trump, it's going to help Trump," Russell said. "It gives him an advantage. Whether it is a determinant advantage, that remains to be seen."

Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JDSalant. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook.