Demonstrating our complete impartiality and scientific rigour when it comes to football forecasting, despite whatever biases we, the creators, might naturally have, the model actually predicts Nottingham Forest will beat Derby County in the A52 (Brian Clough Way) rivalry. The Model expects Forest to score 1.6 goals to Derby’s 1.1. Forest have a 48% chance of a win, compared with 27% for Derby. The chances implied by bookmaker odds are very similar, marginally making Forest less the favourites than the Model does. The most likely scoreline outcome of the game is 1-1 (12%), closely followed by a 1-0 home win (11%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 16 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

R16 forecasts, Champ 2019, RED