Monthly Archives: November 2009

Sovereign Defaults Coming in Second Stage of the Financial Crisis.



Dubai default is DEFLATION.



Here goes Dubai.

What deflation will do to future US GDP.

It is now an established fact that Japan has been mired in deflation for the last 18 years. It meant no economic growth as manifested in the below GDP graph. Assuming that USA is now in the early stages of a similar, if not much stronger, deflationary depression, we may be able to project future US GDP growth/contraction based on the Japanes experience.

Treasury Three-Month Bill Yields Turn Negative.


Demand deflation.

In a deflationary environment the psychology of economic agents, be it lenders or borrowers, is such that neither is motivated to engage in credit transaction. This is because consumer attitudes in a deflationary environment are leaning towards conservation not expansion and consumption. Thus, making it economically discouraging for business to expand. The deflationary times follow an expansionary period which ends in an oversupply of goods and services, and overcapacity in production that makes them happen.







Bank excess reserves with Federal Reserve signal coming loan losses.

This latest chart from November 5, 2009 release of the privately owned Federal Reserve’s report on the excess reserves is showing a sharp increas even over a few months of suppossedly “recovery” and economic “growh”. This sharp increase in excess reserve levels in a seemingly improving economic environment signals that banks know of something else. That something else is causing them to hoard cash and keep it in safest place possible, i.e. accounts at Federal Reserve banks themselves. This menacing something is likely to be huge loan losses that are result of defaults and bankruptcies by debtors. This is, of course, very deflationary.

Mother of all carry trades will lead to inevitable deflationary bust.

For now the privately owned US Federal Reserve’s efforts to reflate the financial markets are sending a flood of liquidity into speculative asset bubble blowing by the speculators. Nearly every asset class is seeing its price being bid up with cheaply borrowed US dollars. At some point an asset bubble always bursts when an event or a perception driven change of heart causes investors to unwind their speculative positions. As the article below explains, when this happens we’ll witness a huge deflationary bust which may wipe out many speculators. Will it wipe out the Central Banks is another good question that only time will be able to answer.