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Brexit endgame

No deal Brexit will ‘have profound political, economical and legal implications’ for island of Ireland, Tanaiste Simon Coveney warns

A NO deal Brexit will "have profound political, economic and legal implications" for the entire island of Ireland, Simon Coveney has warned.

The Government has published the most up-to-date report, warning of the "severe negative economic impacts" if Britain crashes out of the EU on October 31 without an agreement.

 The Government are warning of severe negative impacts a no deal Brexit could have on Ireland
The Government are warning of severe negative impacts a no deal Brexit could have on IrelandCredit: PA:Press Association
 Tanaiste Simon Coveney
Tanaiste Simon CoveneyCredit: AP:Associated Press

In a Brexit planning document provided to ministers today, it admitted some checks on products imported from the UK, including Northern Ireland, would be necessary, but vowed to avoid a hard border.

The document read: "There should be no illusion – a no deal Brexit would result in far-reaching change on the island of Ireland.

"A no deal Brexit will be an unprecedented event, bringing with it disruption and severe negative economic impacts.

"These implications involve severe macroeconomic, trade and sectoral challenges both in the immediate term and in the longer term.

"Addressing those challenges requires difficult and significant choices of a practical, strategic and political nature.

"However, it is clear that the impacts would be very damaging and in the first year following a no deal Brexit it is predicted that the growth rate would be almost three per cent lower than currently projected.


"The impact of tariffs, and of the customs and sanitary and phytosanitary requirements requirements (health checks) and associated checks necessary to preserve Ireland's full participation in the Single Market and Customs Union, would be significant for the operation of the all island economy."

The report noted that the North's economy will be worst affected by a disorderly Brexit, with small businesses especially at risk of crashing out.

It explained: "A no deal Brexit poses risks for the Good Friday Agreement and raises profound political challenges and lasting societal impacts for Northern Ireland.

"The prospect of operating outside the EU with no deal would be extremely serious for businesses, large and small, and for the overall economy of Northern Ireland.

"It would also have potentially severe implications for North/South cooperation."


It also warned that the British Government would ultimately revert to direct rule of the North after a no deal scenario.

It argued: "The consequences of a no deal Brexit for the political process in Northern Ireland could be very damaging.

"A no deal Brexit risks significantly undermining wider community relations and political stability in Northern Ireland with potential related security concerns.

"If the Institutions are not in place at the time of a no deal Brexit, there is a risk that the UK Government might initiate a move to Direct Rule in Northern Ireland as a response to managing the shift to new post-Brexit arrangements in the time frame involved."

Earlier, Senator Neale Richmond called on the government to "proactively develop new and stronger political, economic, social and cultural relationships with its trading partners in Europe" in the wake of Brexit.

He urged: "There is now a need for Ireland across civic society to emerge from behind Britain's shadow and engage with European partners on new terms.

"Irish companies must become more comfortable with exporting directly to the continent and there are opportunities for businesses that seek EU investors."