Sunday, 1 January 2017

2017 Predictions

I quite liked last years game, so here we go again, five issues - what do you thinks will happen?

1. Will trump start a hot war?
2. Islamic state defeated and Raqqato fall?
3. Article 50 passed and UK set for Brexit?
4. Le Pen elected in France?
5. FTSE to end 2017 over 7100?

I know I have missed UK interest rates to rise, Frau Merkel's re-election, mad North Korea
 but we can't have it all....

 Predictions in the comments, happy new year all!


lilith said...

1. No
2. Er, Raqqa to "be liberated" shurely?
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. Yes

Very Happy new Year to everyone here :)

Anonymous said...

1) Depends on your definition of 'start' - I expect China to be more aggressive on Taiwan and eastern Ukraine to be officially annexed by Russia. Not directly started by Trump, but consequences of his actions.

2) Yes. Russia and Iran will have a free hand to take down IS and both will be wanting to flex their muscles.

3) Yes. It's all going to be chaotic though.

4) No. The French system is designed to keep them out. They've already made the French right concede ground to them politically, so much like UKIP they're winning arguments and support but can't translate that into winning elections. That may suit them though, influence without responsibility or blame.

5) Yes. I can see money fleeing to stocks as the brexit chaos continues.

david morris said...

No x 5

HNY 2 all

raedwald said...

1. Yes, but a small one
2. Yes-ish; Raqqa will fall, IS will continue in Nth Africa
3. Yes - Art 50 declaration will be made
4. No - Fillon
5. No - asset bubble will burst.

hkwoodyintokyo said...


CityUnslicker said...

Come on SL....need your foresight

Bill Quango MP said...

1. No. He won't want any early wars. But China will push him.
2. Yes. they will be gone from the Middle east except as terrorists
3. Yes. Signed. No elections. HOL knocks it back once then caves. But a load more legals.
4. No. But then I said that about Trump.
5. No. because reason.

Electro-Kevin said...

Shall I just flip a coin like I did last year ???

Nick Drew said...

1. No. He's actually quite cautious on big issues
2. No. (what would 'defeated' mean in a mere 12 months?)
3. Yes / No - too much still up in the air by next Xmas
4. Yes. (oh, I'm such a contrarian)
5. Yes - 'up-in-the-air' good for UK, relative to EU

DJK said...

1. (Trump war). No. I dare say there will be some shooting somewhere, but small stuff, not a proper war.
2. (IS/Raqqa). No. I think they'll still be there, and still in Raqqa in 2018.
3. (Article 50). Yes, I think Mrs. May will do it.
4. (Le Pen). No, although I notice that Robert Peston thinks she will be elected. I expect it to be close, anyway.
5. (FTSE >7100). Yes.

john cheshire said...

1. No
2. No
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. No

Paul Ralley said...

1. No
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. No
5. Yes
No explanations given, so I can conduct my own post hoc narrative this time in 2018.
Happy Nee Year all

Wildgoose said...

1. No (Unlike Hillary Clinton who clearly wanted a shooting war with Russia)
2. No (but Raqqa will probably be liberated)
3. Yes
4. No (the 2-stage voting process favours centrists)
5. No (I think we can expect some turbulence)

Here's hoping I do better than last year!

Nick Drew said...

I see Nick Butler has at last offered something interesting for 2017 in his lame FT blog:

The long planned nuclear plant at Flamanville in Northern France will be abandoned as more technical faults are discovered by the French regulator. The decision will mark the end of the European Pressurised Reactor. EDF shares will rise by 50 per cent on the day of the announcement

Frank said...

1. No
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. My heart says yes, my head says no
5. * Spins a coin* Yes

Jan said...

1. No
2. They will be severely "dented" so on their way out
3. Yes
4. No
5. No

MyNewYearName said...

1. Will trump start a hot war? - Maybe. Not a big international one though. US troops in Baltic or Ukraine or Navy in SC sea more a 'show of force'.

2. Islamic state defeated and Raqqato fall? - depends on whos interest this serves. Surely it'd be more useful to leave them standing and suck in every impressionable arsehole in the world to the one spot - fish in a barrel scenario. a whole generation of Russian soldiers need 'blooding' anyhow.

3. Article 50 passed and UK set for Brexit? - as the Euro/zone staggers from crisis to crisis it'll start to look like a work of prescient genius. It will happen but there be inevitable balls ups along the way - think how incompetent the Sit Humphreys are when they in favour of something, now square it.

4. Le Pen elected in France? - Not relevant. The evisceration of Merkel in the summer elections is a far bigger prize.

5. FTSE to end 2017 over 7100? - no idea.

Antisthenes said...

There will be mixed results from Trumps presidency. He is a protectionist so that is bad. He is not Clinton so that is good. He will get on good terms with Russia and alienate China so that is bad. Not so bad if he gets on good terms with both based on "if you cannot beat them join them". The establishment will wear him down so much he will seek to improve on the political front he will not achieve.

Brexit will end with the EFTA/EEA option as that will be the only one to gain sufficient enough support. It will placate the remainers and the leavers will begrudgingly find it acceptable.

Le Pen will not become president but Fillon who will we will find acceptable. Merkel will win again much to our chagrin.

Theresa May will prove to be a hopeless PM as she was as Home secretary and her legacy will be that of continuity Cameron with a bit more cunning. However if she calls an election which she might as the conditions are mounting that will force her into calling one and she wins handsomely she may come out from her barricade and surprise us all.

As for the rest I do not have a clue. Such as the fate of Corbyn and the Labour party as that has much more farce left in it before divining the outcomes is possible.

Steven_L said...

1. Yes (if bombing ISIS in Syria counts) No (if it doesn't)
2. No
3. Yes
4. No
5. Yes

dearieme said...

1. He's more interested in hot babes.

2. How could anyone tell whether ISIS had been defeated?

3. How the hell would I know?

4. Seems unlikely.

5. Bathetic.

Demetrius said...

He will start a war. I expect the US Marines to be taking over Scottish golf courses and Trump to merge Scotland with Massachusetts.

Electro-Kevin said...

1. Will trump start a hot war? - No
2. Islamic state defeated and Raqqato fall? - No (Islamic State will not be defeated
3. Article 50 passed and UK set for Brexit? - No
4. Le Pen elected in France? - No
5. FTSE to end 2017 over 7100? - No (Just a wild guess)

Electro-Kevin said...

The answer to question 1 was easy by the way. If I'd said Yes and we're still here next year to check it then I'd be wrong. But I don't think Trump will start a hot war. Someone else might.

L fairfax said...

1. Will trump start a hot war? No
2. Islamic state defeated and Raqqato fall? Raqqa might fall but they will be with us for years
3. Article 50 passed and UK set for Brexit? Yes
4. Le Pen elected in France? Yes
5. FTSE to end 2017 over 7100? Yes

CityUnslicker said...

My own answers:

1. No - he is a not Hillary
2. Yes, they have started to turn on their masters of late
3. Yes, we get a Hard brexit, come what May.
4. No, wont even be close
5. Yes, EU economy finally recovering a bit, China stalling and US about to splurge - should be a solid year. FTSE still where it was 18 Years ago...

Anonymous said...

1.Nothing major but the media will attempt to cast his as a war monger.
2.Yes, but likely some sort of continuity IS at a sub government level.
3.Article 50 passed but waiting for the stitch up.

botogol said...

2-No & Yes
3-Yes & No

Weekend Yachtsman said...

1. No.
2. In name, probably, but in fact not.
3. Yes, with squealing.
4. No but close.
5. Havnae a clue.