Mistrial in Sen. Bob Menendez's case: What could happen next?

By Jonathan D. Salant | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

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Even though the corruption case against U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., ended in a mistrial, the senator's problems are not over.

For starters, federal prosecutors could try him again.

Or he could face a primary challenge from a fellow Democrat should he decide to run in 2018. His perceived vulnerability could entice a strong Republican opponent to jump into the 2018 Senate race.

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Here are seven scenarios Menendez could face and what it means to the high-stakes balance of power in Washington:

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U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez leaves the federal court in Newark last week. (Patti Supone | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

1. Federal prosecutors could retry him

A mistrial doesn't make the indictment go away, and the Justice Department could decide to try him again on the same charges. That would mean several more weeks of unfavorable headlines about Menendez allegedly doing favors for a friend and campaign donor in exchange for trips and contributions.

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That would also mean a trial spilling over into next year, when Menendez is up for re-election.

He entered October 2017 with $3.9 million in the bank, and is rated as a strong favorite for re-election by the two Washington-based publications that track congressional races, Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report.

In a Quinnipiac University poll released in October, 50 percent of New Jersey voters said Menendez does not deserve to be re-elected, with just 20 percent supporting him. The senator has less than a year to turn those numbers around.

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Flanked by his children Alyssa and Robert Jr., U.S Sen. Robert Menendez leaves the federal courthouse in Newark. (Aristide Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

2. The Senate Ethics Committee may get involved

Congressional ethics committees defer to the Justice Department when a lawmaker is accused of criminal conduct.

If prosecutors drop their case, the Senate Ethics Committee may want to take a look at those same trips and campaign contributions provided by Dr. Salomon Melgen and the actions the senator took on his behalf.

And then there is the question of those gifts that were never reported on the senator's annual personal financial disclosure forms.

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., waits to speak to reporters at the Capitol. (AP Photo | J. Scott Applewhite)

3. Republicans may smell blood in the water

Republicans have to defend only nine seats in 2018 and are looking to expand their majority. Could they add New Jersey to their list of prospective pickups? It depends on whether they can come up with a potentially strong candidate with an ability to raise money.

With 49 percent of the state's voters disapproving of Menendez's job performance in an October Quinnipiac poll, a credible Republican might be enticed to challenge him.

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U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., leaves his bribery trial at the end of a day. (Aristide Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

4. Other Democrats could covet the seat

"Re-elect Bob; he wasn't convicted" is not exactly a winning campaign slogan, and Menendez could find himself in a weakened political position even with the criminal case behind him. There is no shortage of New Jersey Democrats who would love a chance at a Senate seat, but aren't about to challenge a popular incumbent with a fat bank account.

Depending on the trial's impact on Menendez's popularity, he may not be such a formidable opponent any more, enticing a fellow Democrat to launch a primary challenge.

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U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez arrives at the federal courthouse in Newark on one day of his federal corruption trial. (Patti Sapone | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

5. Will he reclaim his committee post?

Menendez temporarily gave up his position as ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after his indictment. Sen Ben Cardin, D-Md., has occupied the post since, though Menendez, as a senior member of the panel, continues to wield influence.

Menendez could seek to reclaim his post, which would put him in position to chair the committee again if Democrats regain a Senate majority.

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6. Retirement could beckon

When U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli ran into ethical problems shortly before Election Day 2002, he stepped aside in favor of former U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg, who was able to keep the seat in Democratic hands.

If polls indicate that he would be a weak candidate next November, Menendez could come under pressure to retire rather than seek re-election.

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U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez arrives at the courthouse with daughter Alicia. (Aristide Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

7. All systems go

Even if the Senate Ethics Committee decides to rebuke Menendez over the Melgen incident, it doesn't have to be a death sentence.

Just ask Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who was criticized for intervening with federal regulators on behalf of campaign backer Charles Keating before Keating's Lincoln Savings & Loan collapsed.

It's unlikely that that senators who stood by Menendez when he was under indictment would abandon him now, so he would retain his seniority and stature and continue to serve as an influential member of the chamber.

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