﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ 16 IULIE – Helsinki: UN MEGA DEAL TRUMP- PUTIN ? | publicatii - Politica La Est


Mihail E. Ionescu
            Dezbaterile in media internationala referitoare la Summit-ul Trump-Putin din 16 iulie curent la Helsinki  sunt in plina desfasurare. Pe de o parte, in SUA este o dezlantuire fara precedent  in opinia publica incriminandu-se faptul ca Trump a preferat sa dea crezare - in dauna concluziei propriilor servicii de Securitate - afirmatiei lui Putin ca Rusia nu s-a amestecat in alegerile prezidentiale din America in 2016. De la fostul sef al FBI, Comey, care a evaluat aceasta pozitie ca fiind echivalenta cu o “ tradare” la actualul  sef al acestei institituii, care a confirmat din nou existenta dosarului in cauza si concluzia desprinsa de serviciul pe care il conduce, establishmentul intelligence al SUA este unanim in a critica – intr-un fel sau altul - pozitia asumata de presedintele Trump la conferinta de presa de la Helsinki. Indiscutabil, pozitiile din establishmentul politic sunt la fel de transante, inclusiv in cadrul Partidului Republican, doua idei principale desprinzandu-se evident: anume, mai intai, ca Rusia este un adversar/ inamic ( foe ) si nu UE  ( cum a afirmat Trump intr-un interviu recent ) sau aliatii din NATO ( aluzie la abia incheiatul  Summit al aliantei, unde presedintele american a creat impresia ca SUA se degajeaza de angajamentele in cadrul acesteia ) ; in al doilea rand, ca exista o anumita incertitudine referitoare la intelegerile care au avut loc intre cei doi lideri, despre care nu se stiu inca amanunte sau chiar domeniul de aplicabilitate a lor. Astfel incat intrebari privind, de pilda, ce ar fi putut oferi Putin in schimbul reintrarii Europei de Est in sfera de influenta rusa sau care ar fi raspunsul SUA daca , ipotetic, Rusia ar ataca Polonia ori altele asemanatoare abunda pe retelele de socializare. Imediat dupa Summit, fostul sef al diplomatiei poloneze , Radek Sikorski , se intreba , pe buna dreptate: “ And now, as a U.S. ally, we are supposed to believe that if President Putin launches a hybrid war, or even a nuclear strike against Poland, President @realDonaldTrump will threaten to nuke him back.[1]  . Dar este tot atat de adevarat ca Sikorski  a si primit raspunsuri la scenariul imaginat, altele decat cele imaginate de el, pe o scala care incepe de la  ‘ Putin nu are de ce sa atace  Polonia’  la “  I wished that Polish government understood that to make PL more secure now they need to cooperate closer with the EU, in particular in security and defence #CSDP” .[2]
            Raspunsul lui Donald Trump la furtuna starnita in media  a mericana si mondiala de comportamentul sau la conferinta de presa comuna cu V. Putin se poate lesne desprinde din notatiile sale pe twitter. In dimineata de 17 iulie la intoarcerea din Finlanda a scris ca : “ I had a great meeting with NATO. They have paid $33 Billion more and will pay hundreds of Billions of Dollars more in the future, only because of me. NATO was weak, but now it is strong again (bad for Russia). The media only says I was rude to leaders, never mentions the money!”[3] , o alta notatie intervenind la mai putin de o ora: “ While I had a great meeting with NATO, raising vast amounts of money, I had an even better meeting with Vladimir Putin of Russia. Sadly, it is not being reported that way - the Fake News is going Crazy!” [4].  Dar inca inainte de cel dintai twitter citat, Trump, desigur constient de furtuna cu care se va confrunta, a avut prevederea sa afirme ca : “As I said today and many times before, ‘I have GREAT confidence in MY intelligence people.’ However, I also recognize that in order to build a brighter future, we cannot exclusively focus on the past – as the world’s two largest nuclear powers, we must get along!” [5].  Asadar, reafirmand cu claritate increderea sa in propriile servicii de informatii ale SUA, dar dopotriva aratand ca trebuie privit in viitor pentru a mentine pacea, fara insa a lamuri si trecutul ( “ we cannot exclusively focus on the past “ ) . Daca aceasta afirmatie inseamna ca presedintele este constient ca a facut o cedare in fata lui Putin – asadar constient ca omologul sau nu are dreptate - sau daca astfel afirma astfel  desprinderea sa integrala de un trecut care inca marcheaza establishmentul politic american ( si  a bagateliza, adresandu-se chiar acestui establishment al intelligence-ului SUA ,  deci intensitatea furtunii mediatice care a urmat )  depinde  de pozitia politica a fiecarui cititor al acestui text .
            Numai ca, asa cum se intampla in urma unor asemenea mega - intalniri sistemice nu au intarziat sa apara detaliile. Daca cineva sa va fi mirat de timpul in care Trump si Putin au putut sa ajunga la intelegeri in atat de multe si extreme de importante dosare ale scenei politice globale de  azi (la conferinta au fost listate de ambii presedinti chbestiunile discutate , ele vadindu-se  covarsitoare ca numar , atunci trebuie reaminsitit un episod istoric  povestit de chiar unii dintre protagonistii unui astfel de asemenea ‚ mega- deal’ . Iata cum povesteste premierul britanic Winston Churchill intalnirea sa cu liderul sovietic  Iosif Stalin in 9 octombrie 19144 , cand au fost stabilite amanuntele impartirii Europei de Est in sfere de influenta: “At ten o’clock that night we held our ﬁrst important meeting in the Kremlin./../The moment was apt for business, so I said, ‘ Let us settle about our affairs in the Balkans. Your armies are in Roumania and Bulgaria. We have interests, missions, and agents there. Don’t let us get at cross—purposes in small ways. So far as Britain and Russia are concerned, how would it do for you to have ninety per cent. predominance in Roumania, for us to have ninety per cent. of the say in Greece, and go ﬁfty—ﬁfty about Yugoslavia?’ /…/While this was being translated I wrote out on a half—sheet of paper/…/I pushed this across to Stalin, who had by then heard the translation. There was a slight pause. Then he took his blue pencil and made a large tick upon it, and passed it back to us. It was all settled in no more time than it takes to set down./…/After this there was a long silence. The pencilled paper lay in the centre of the table. At length I said, ‘ Might it not be thought rather cynical if it seemed we had disposed of these issues, so fateful to millions of people, in such an offhand manner? Let us burn the paper.’ ‘No, you keep it,’ said Stalin.”[6]
Asadar, pentru astfel de mega - intalniri istorice, timpul deciziilor de mare importanta este extrem de scurt, ceea ce nu inseamna ca sunt solid motivate, din perspective intereselor celor implicati. Este apoi treaba consilierilor si expertilor sa ‘ traduca’ in limbaj politico-diplomatic deciziile respective.
            In cazul reuniunii de la Helsinki nu a fost nevoie sa se astepte prea mult pentru a se cunoaste public o astfel de  mega – decizie. Totul a inceput a doua zi dupa reuniune , cand procuratura generala a Rusiei a emis, potrivit agentiilor de presa ruse  ,  un document in care afirma clar ca: “ called the former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul among those who/…/ are involved in the illegal activities of the founder of the Hermitage Capital Foundation, William Browder . /…/in 2009-2010, / Mc Faul-n.n./compiled a memorandum to the US State Department from Moscow on the progress of the investigation into the Magnitsky case/…/.McFaul has repeatedly supported Browder. In particular, after the cancellation of the American visa of the founder of Hermitage Capital, the former ambassador called on US President Donald Trump ‘not to join Putin's campaign’ against him. After the detention of Browder in Spain (soon he was released), the former diplomat said that Russia should be removed from Interpol.”[7]  Importanta acestui document, emis a doua zi dupa reuniunea de la Helsinki, nu poate scapa celor familiari cu relatiile ruso-americane in anii precedenti, cel putin de la razboiul din  Georgia ( august 2008 ). ‘ Cazul Magnitki” , dupa numele avocatului rus al lui Browder, mort in inchisoare in Rusia in cursul investigatiei schemelor  spalarii de bani de catre afaceristul american , a determinat o dura replica a administratiei Obama, pe asa- numita ‘ lista Magnitki’ fiind trecuti oficialii rusi, care au fost implicati in  investigatie si supusi sanctiunilor adoptate post-anexarea Crimeei de catre Rusia in 2014 ( martie ). Ramificatiile cazului sunt ample, dar momentan este importanta reactia lui  Michael Mac Faul la anuntul rusesc din 17 iulie a.c. .
             Iata sirul comentariilor fostului ambasador la Moscova Michael  MacFaul:
1.I hope the U.S. government that I served faithfully for five years will stand up and defend      us with public outrage over these ridiculous accusations. cc: @JonHuntsman @WhiteHouse             @StateDept @USEmbRu-  3,49      PM, 17 iulie[8]
 2. – “Hey WH press Corps, can you confirm tomorrow with @PressSec that Putin discussed me personally in his one on one with Trump? Did he suggest that I was part of some alleged money laundering scheme? And did Trump push back on this completely invented , whacko idea?”- 5,47-PM, 17 iulie  ;[9] 
3 “ TASS-- an official agency of the Russian government-- has stated that the Russian authorities are seeking to arrest several US government officials in connection with alleged Browder money laundering scheme to help Clinton campaign. Sorry, but that is a very serious accusation.”  7,22 PM- 17 iulie [10];  
 4.”  Absolutely crazy: "The Russian agency’s official spokesman, Alexander Kurennoi, told the news agency Interfax on Tuesday that McFaul is one of the Americans suspected of involvement in Browder’s illegal activities." 17 iulie, orele 8,07 PM[11] ;
5. “ I am not an "associate" of Bill Browder. I am the former US ambassador to Russia. Putin is seeking to arrest a former Ambassador. Please understand how outrageous this act is, discussed no less between our two presidents- ora 7, 47PM [12]-este
 intrebat de un follower ( Scott Fulton III): “Sir, let me make sure I'm getting the implications correct: Is #Putin inventing allegations that you and other former officials were involved in a kind of "false equivalence" money laundering scheme for @HillaryClinton? And is your fear that #Trump is playing along with this? -8:32 PM [13] ;
6. Mac Faul raspunde acestuia dupa 2 minute: Scott M. Fulton III“ That is what is sound like to me, yes. On Trump, I dont know if he is playing along or not. I hope not.”[14] ;
7. “As I discuss in detail in From Cold War to Hot Peace, Putin has been harassing me for a long time. That he now wants to arrest me, however, takes it to a new level. I expect my government to defend me and my colleagues, in public and private.”- 8,10 PM , 17 iulie [15];
8- “Even during the Stalin era, the Soviet government never had the audacity to try to arrest US government officials. Think about that.” 9,57 PM , 17 iulie [16];
9.- “Exactly. The Trump administration needs to speak out loudly as a matter of principle. Very slippery slope if they do not.-   9,59, PM , 17 iulie[17];
10.” It's most certainly a tactic of intimidation. As @Billbrowder knows better than anyone, Putin goes after his critics with a vengeance. But is is also a matter of US government policy. Waiting for Trump administration to step up and speak forcefully in defense of all USG officials- 10.06PM, 17 iulie [18]
11 MacFaul retwitted:  Michael Weiss-“Make no mistake: the reason Putin feels emboldened to target @McFaul, a former US ambassador, is because he is an Obama administration appointee and a Clinton supporter. Putin clearly feels he has a sympathetic ear in @realDonaldTrump. This is a perversion of US politics.” - - 10,25 PM, 17 iulie [19]
12. Exactly. Putin feels that he has an ally in @realDonaldTrump in going after me & the other US government officials on that list. President Trump could clear that up in one tweet or statement.https://t.co/utNAkKx5bG
Michael McFaul added,
Replying to @michaeldweiss @McFaul @realDonaldTrump
“Putin felt emboldened to harrass Ambassador AND his family in Moscow even under Obama. The difference is he doesn't feel the need to hide it anymore, after the Trump's fiasco in Helsinki.” - 11:09 PM - 17 Jul 2018 ; [20]
13. Mac Faul retweeted: “Andrew Bennett @IRgetsreal
Cannot endorse this strongly enough. Press needs to ask if Trump did or will push back on Russia's smear campaign against former US Ambassador @McFaul Diplomatic immunity is one of the longest and strongest norms in international relations”;[21]- 10,54 PM- 17 iulie
14. “  I really hope Trump did not agree with this "great deal" with Putin in Helsinki: "Russia wants to question Christopher Steele, Michael McFaul, top politicians for aiding Bill Browder" — RT World News- -11,31 PM-17 iulie;[22]
            Aceasta ultima notatie pe twitter a lui MacFaul ne trimite la un articol aparut pe  ‘Russia Today’, semnificativ intitulat Russia wants to question Christopher Steele, Michael McFaul, top politicians for aiding Bill Browder’[23] . Daca este sa credem cele afirmate in acest articol- si nu avem prea multe motive sa nu facem acest lucru, atunci Rusia vrea , nici mai mult, nici mai putin, sa investigheze , pe langa  numitii MacFaul si Bill Browder, pe un anume  Christopher Steele. Ni se dezvaluie astfel o prima  ‚mega-intelegere’ Putin-Trump. Steele este fostul membru al serviciilor secrete britanice , care a alcatuit dosarul privind legaturile ilegale dintre candidatul prezidential Donald Trump si Rusia in timpul campaniei electorale si alegatiile cuprinse in el stau la baza acuzatiilor adresate si azi presedintelui Trump, ceea ce el numeste permanent un ‚witch hunt’ . Rolul lui Steele in intreaga afacere este inca nelamurit deplin- se afirma ca a fost platit de adversarii politici ai lui Trump- , dar ancheta se pare ca , cel putin acum, dupa Helsinki, se afla abioa in faza incipienta ( vom avea probabil multe surprize ) .  Procurorul independent Robert Mueller , care investigheaza alegatiile cuprinse in acest dosar, bineinteles compulsate cu alte informatii ( nu stim cat de multe sau veridice )  a pus sub acuzare 12 ofiteri rusi GRU pentru implicare in influentarea campaniei electorale americane din 1916  cu doar trei zile inainte –poate nu intamplator- de intalnirea de la Helsinki (la  13 iulie ).  Cum se stie, Browder este deopotriva unul dintre martorii cheie in investigatia condusa de R. Mueller.
            Pentru a mai adauga o informatie necesara intelegerii intregului episod relatat aici, trebuie spus ca , la conferinta de presa Trump-Putin ( 16 iulie ), a fost ridicata intrebarea daca Trump a spus omologului sau ca este dovedit ca Rusia s-a amestecat in alegerile prezidentiale americane din 2016. Iata , pentru a reda intregul context,  transcriptul oficial al acestui episod din aminitita conferinta de presa:
TRUMP: Well I’m going to let the president answer the second part of that question.
As you know, the concept of that came up perhaps a little before, but it came out as a reason why the Democrats lost an election, which frankly, they should have been able to win, because the electoral college is much more advantageous for Democrats, as you know, than it is to Republicans. We won the electoral college by a lot. 306 to 223, I believe. That was a well-fought battle. We did a great job.

REPORTER (Jeff Mason from Reuters): Did you direct any of your officials to help him do that?
PUTIN: Yes, I did. Yes, I did. Because he talked about bringing the US/Russia relationship back to normal.”[24]
            Atrag atentia, in lungul citat reprodus din transcriptul conferintei de presa de la Helsinki , asupra celor cu format marit. Este adus in discutie cu amanunte cazul omului de afaceri american Browder. A se retine ca   liderul Kremlinului afirma ca poate  subventia de 400 milioane de dolari SUA pentru campania lui H. Clinton  a fost legala, dar banii castigati din care a fost virata aceasta suma au  fost dobanditi si transferati illegal din Rusia . Mai mult, ca ar exista suspiciuni ca in aceasta afacere au fost implicaie ofiteri de intelligence ( trimitere directa la servicii secrete americane )  si ca exista un interes al Moscovei ( dar nu numai )  in  interogarea  lor ( de aici si primul anunt din 17 iulie al procuraturii generale rusesti ) .
Trebuie sa mai mentionam ca aceste lucruri au fost afirmate de Putin in prezenta lui Trump, care nu a schitat niciun gest de negare  , ceea ce poate fi intepretat ca o tacita aprobare. Iar daca luam in calcul ca , chiar a doua zi, reprezentantul procuraturii ruse a facut public cele anterior aratate  nu putem sa nu desprindem concluzia preliminara  , desigur intemeiati pe o combinare speculativa a faptelor relatate  , ca aici rezida unul dintre marile mega- dealuri asumate de cei doi lideri in cursul intalnirii lor ‘fata in fata ‘ . Investigarea in amanunt  a cazului Bowder ,pe care o presupune acest ‘ deal’ ,  trebuie pusa in contextul in care Putin se declara de acord cu interogarea , in anumite conditii, a celor 12 ofiteri GRU rusi , acuzati de catre comisia Mueler, dar si cu inistenta cu care Donald  Trump a facut aluzie- atunci cand a fost chestionat in legatura cu amestecul serviciilor rusesti in campania prezidentiala americana din 2016- la faptul ca au disparut si par de negasit de catre anchetatori  peste 30 000 de mail-uri de pe serverele dnei H. Clinton ( este un repros deschis adresat serviciilor americane secrete ) .
            Ceea ce aduce in plus articolul din ‘Russia Today’  , dar cu o rapiditate care arata cat de importanta este chestiunea  de lamurit , este faptul ca in intregul dosar apare si numele lui C. Steele, fost membru al serviciilor secrete britanice . Cine dintre lectorii acestui text  este cat de cat familiarizat cu acest nume va intelege imediat implicatiile acestui ‘mega- deal’ intre cei doi presedinti. Steele este cel care a alcatuit, in circumstante care vor fi lamurite neindoielnic in viitorul apropiat,  intregul dosar , care a fost si este baza a ceea ce si azi, cand scriem aceste randuri, presedintele Trump numeste a fi un ‘ witch hunt’ , anume suspiciunea ridicata asupra sa de legaturi ilegale cu Rusia in perioada anterioara accederii la Casa Alba. Vreme de aproape doi ani de zile, presedintele Trump a avut a se lupta aproape zilnic cu aceasta actiune de rezistenta a adversarilor  politici ai mandatului sau . Cine are rabdarea sa citeasca cele 57 de pagini care detaliaza practice continutul dosarului Steele poate sa inteleaga mai in amanunt  miza aflata in joc in jurul acestui dosar. [25]
PS  Nu este exclus ca , in zilele urmatoare, sa apara amanunte despre alte mega- intelegeri la Helsinki intre cei doi presedinti, dupa cum este posibil ca despre altele sa nu fie deloc stiuta chiar existenta lor ( nu si amanunte )  pe parcursul generatiei noastre. Ceea ce trebuie sa  retinem la sfarsitul acestei  analize este ca pe notatiile sale pe twitter, in  contextul furtunii neobisnuite de pe scena politica americana, el fiind acuzat de pactizare cu inamicul ( Rusia ) D. Trump a afirmat azi urmatoarele:
3:08 AM - 18 Jul 2018[26]
si :
4:27 AM - 18 Jul 2018[27]
18 IULIE 2018
[2] Ibidem
[6] Winston S. Churchill, The Second World War , vol VI, Triumph and Tragedy, London, 1954, p. 197-8
[18] https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1019448212292169728-
[19] https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1019453144646860800
[20] https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1019464174336860160
[22] https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1019469658963902467


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