July 4th 2019

Violence continues unabated despite peace efforts


On July 1st the Taliban carried out multiple attacks in the capital, Kabul, killing at least 40 people and injuring more than 100.


Insurgent attacks in Afghanistan have continued unabated in 2019, even in reputedly safer parts of the country. The latest attacks in Kabul came against the backdrop of a fresh round of negotiations between the US government and the Taliban, which began in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on June 30th. Following the appointment of Zalmay Khalilzad as its special envoy in September 2018, the US government has held six rounds of talks with representatives of the Taliban, with the seventh currently underway. These discussions have mainly focused on assurances that the Taliban will not allow terrorist activities against the US and its allies under its watch, in exchange for troop withdrawal by the US. However, the talks have not yielded a breakthrough. Given the urgency displayed by the US government in seeking a negotiated settlement, in order to pave the way for a subsequent troop withdrawal, the Taliban's position stands strengthened. The Taliban has little incentive to make significant compromises, given its understanding that the US's ultimate goal is to pull out its troops.

We believe that the Taliban to will continue to carry out terrorist attacks across the country in order to strengthen its strategic position. The US's ongoing diplomatic efforts—supposedly aimed at negotiating a deal with the Taliban before the presidential elections in Afghanistan are held in September—are likely to fail. We nevertheless expect the US to start withdrawing its troops by early 2020, owing to domestic political pressure in the US. We expect this to be only a partial withdrawal, as the US is likely to maintain some of its troop presence for counter-terrorism and training operations with Afghanistan's security forces. The US is also likely to ramp up its air power capabilities inside Afghanistan as part of this withdrawal, in order to offset the impact of its reduced on-the-ground presence.

Impact on the forecast

The latest developments reinforce our long-held view that insurgent attacks will continue unabated across Afghanistan, and that a negotiated settlement to the Taliban insurgency is unlikely over the next two years.

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