Yellow Vests and the threat to Macron’s Presidency

Yellow Vests and the threat to Macron’s Presidency

Protesters labelled the ‘yellow vests’ have challenged the fuel tax policy put forth by President Macron, resulting in riots and violence. What is the outlook in the near term?

The past few weeks in France, particularly Paris, have produced images of violence not seen since the May 1968 crisis and student protests. The only comparable riots since happened in 2005 centered around the banlieues. The first major test to Macron’s presidency has not come from the deprived outer suburbs but from striking long-haul lorry drivers and the broader working class who are upset with his proposed fuel tax. When compared to other EU states, the Netherlands has the highest tax on unleaded petrol at 68% of the cost at the pump, while Bulgaria ranks lowest at 51%.

France’s fuel taxes are 64% for unleaded and 59% for diesel, one of the highest rates in the EU but about even when compared to prices in the UK. Those figures coupled with a president who is seen by many as the ‘candidate of the rich’ is problematic. Macron has already alienated trade unions and other civic groups, which has resulted in a standoff pitching different segments of French society against one another. In response to the devastating images coming out of Paris as a result of the fuel tax increase, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe announced a postponement of six months in order to find a more sustainable solution. A state of emergency may follow if the protests continue and businesses are unable to open on the Champs Elysee.

Who are the yellow-vests?

The yellow vest protest movement started with people from rural parts of France who have to drive long distances for work. This initial denunciation of Macron’s green tax has turned into a larger movement comprising the working and middle classes. They are upset about the low standards of living. This group is agitated because their incomes are too high to qualify for social welfare benefits but too low to make ends meet in a major city such as Paris. Like most protest movements, the yellow vests lack a central leadership and have grown spontaneously on social media. This is attracting far-right movements and anarchists in addition to non-violent students to the protests.

Political impact

Emmanuel Macron became the leader of France through his own political movement, La Republique En Marche! Unabashedly centrist, Macron was able to attract voters from both the centre-left Socialist Party and centre-right Les Republicains, which both lost considerable support in the primary process. In the final round of the election, he won against the Front National’s Marine Le Pen, although she was able to gain a considerable share of the vote.

Macron’s main challenge since then has been navigating the various constituencies in French politics in order to properly govern. Viewed as the candidate of the rich during the campaign, he has had to toe both the center-left and center-right line in order to lead the nation from the middle. With the exception of far-left support for Jean-Luc Melenchon’s La France Insoumise, and far-right support for Marine Le Pen’s Front National, Macron has struggled to win over the support of all voters.

At the moment, President Macron’s approval rating is at 23%. He ties the record set by his predecessor Francois Hollande, who left office with an approval rating of 8%. There is clearly no support for him among the yellow vest protesters, and it is likely that their protest will continue in various forms until Macron leaves office. Macron is not seen as a ‘man of the people’ or a representative of working-class rural voters. This is particularly true for those left behind by globalization and dealing with high levels of economic insecurity.

The way forward

President Macron is unlikely to back down from his commitment to the Paris climate agreement. It is an important global standard for climate change action that has widespread support among many of its signatories. What is more likely to happen is a ‘softening’ of Macron’s image in order to appeal to voters that may not be convinced that a tax on fuel is necessary to combat climate change. Combined with the youth of Paris and other major cities, as well as the working and middle class, there are many French citizens who feel the government still does not support them even after the election of Macron. However, Macron is a skilled politician who knows how to speak to the right audiences at the right time. And it is unlikely that he will back down from this challenge.

Given the weekend’s events of more riots and tear gas on the Champs-Elysees, the yellow vest protests risk causing great economic damage to France as well as a drop in tourist numbers. The French Finance Minister has said that the protests have hit retailers, hotels and stores quite hard, with Paris hotel cancellations surging by 20-50 percent. While the government is unlikely to collapse, confidence certainly has and will continue to do so as long as Paris looks like a warzone that is unsafe to visit.

The image of France as a beacon of stability in a continent roiled by populism, migration and illiberalism, coupled with Britain’s costly divorce from the EU, is something Macron will work hard to maintain. At the height of the May 1968 crisis, France verged on civil war and President de Gaulle fled the country to Germany before returning and finding a solution with other parties to calm tensions. While a repeat of those events is unlikely, France is likely to embark on a more militant, insurrectionist path that will pit trade unions like the CGT, students, and workers against the establishment figures in the Elysee Palace like Macron. As one yellow vest protester told Le Monde, ‘The elites worry about the end of the world while we worry about the end of the month.’

That sentiment captures the challenge facing Macron and the risks for France as a destination for investment, tourism, and overall political stability in the year ahead.

Categories: Europe, Politics

About Author

Alexander Brotman

Alexander Brotman received an MSc in International Relations from The University of Edinburgh. He previously was a researcher with the Center for a New American Security in Washington and has been published with PassBlue, a digital publication covering the UN, as well as Cable, an online global affairs magazine published by the Scottish Global Forum. His research interests include European politics, NATO and Russian foreign and security policy.