all 18 comments

[–]McMeatwad 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I don’t think a ban is inevitable, but I think it’s more likely than not. I wouldn’t buy in right now.

[–]Reaper_EagleModernnexus.com 9 points10 points  (2 children)

It depends on what you need to buy. Most of the deck is safe, and not very good without Urza around. As for the money cards:

[[Urza, Lord High Artificer]] is too similar to [[Krark-Clan Ironworks]] to survive forever, though how long is an open question. Depends on how GP Columbus goes, but I wouldn't expect action before February at the earliest.

[[Mox Opal]] is pretty unlikely since it's never the problem in any of the decks that get banned around it. Most of the decks that use it do so fairly (Scales, Affinity) and would not survive otherwise where Ironworks never really needed Opal, and arguably neither does Urza. Banning it kills a lot of perfectly fine decks and barely hits the problem ones. I call it safe.

Oko is up in the air. He can generate a ridiculous amount of value and shouldn't have existed. However, he's not very good without lots of stuff to make into Elks. Outside Urza is a 2-of and far from universal. Really unlikely to get banned unless Wizards decides to randomly write him off as a mistake to never speak of again.

[–]justforsafari 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I think the opal confidence is unwarranted. In a post faithless looting ban, just because "it's never the problem" isn't good enough. If it consistently enables the problem, it's on the block. It may still be safe for now but as an opal owner, I'm always looking over my shoulder. It has specifically been mentioned as on a watchlist, and does something that WotC doesn't want in the format: fast mana.

[–]2000shadow2000 2 points3 points  (0 children)

While its more than likely safe it might be worth waiting till GP results are up tomorrow before deciding to buy into anything

[–]Sarcastic1neBlue Control decks 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I don't think it's at risk as it stands.

It's a good deck, but not completely busted.

Oko and urza are 2 strong cards, but a semi decent amount of interaction (counterspells and/or discard) goes a long way.

It doesn't have the recursive inevitability of decks like KCI/hogaak.

I get that if does cheat on mana with goose & opal, but it has very specific pay off cards.

[–]Ananeos 1 point2 points  (2 children)

If you've been paying attention to GP Columbus it looks like Tron beats it. It should be an ok buy, but I would do it fast because Okos are not $27 anymore when they were being speculated on.

[–]jeslimak 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Both Tron and Amulet are very, very bad matchups for the deck. Especially when the deck runs up against ones with Karn the Great Creator. The mirror breaker is in theory Karn the Great Creator as well, but in my experience Karn is just pretty bad out of the deck against most of the rest of the field.

[–]maxtofunatorGoblins | Infect 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I love hearing tron is a bad match up for any deck. Unless it’s e tron we’re talking about.

[–]kami_inuBurn | UB Mill | Mardu Shadow (preMH1 brew) | Memes 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Nobody has sufficient information to make a definite statement. If you can't handle the cost of buying the deck and it then getting banned, don't buy it.

[–]Lenik1998 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Stuff wouldn't even fall that hard. Most expensive cards see play elsewhere.

[–]Firefighter-PichuTwiddle Storm 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Wait for tommorow, or for the next bans.Oko will be strong forever, mishras bauble too, but im sure that opal will survive the ban cuz other decks licke sram combo or affinity relies on them

[–]vickeraRIP phoenix 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I'm sure faithless looting won't get banned because decks like Mardu pyromancer rely on it. Oh wait...

[–]Firefighter-PichuTwiddle Storm 0 points1 point  (0 children)

An argument(oops)

[–]Existenz81 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It plays three problematic cards that all face the risk of getting banned. I would be surprised if all three of Opal/Urza/Oko are legal in Modern in twelve months.

[–]blop74 0 points1 point  (2 children)

My bet is on -- if anything ever gets banned -- [[astrolabe]].

That card enable stupid 4 color shit, and makes "real" basic lands obsolete. Banning it would dampen a bit the decks using it without killing them, and keep the money card safe for one more round.

[–]MTGCardFetcher 0 points1 point  (0 children)

astrolabe - (G) (SF) (txt)

[–]Existenz81 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually like that suggestion!