Friday, April 15, 2011

JLin 48 Minute Stats vs MVP Rose

Here are some eye popping Jeremy Lin/Derrick Rose/Acie Law NBA final season stats:

JLin - 2nd in entire league @ 5.56
DRose 225th in entire league @ 1.35
AC Law 52nd in entire league @ 2.12

JLin - 1st for all point guards @ 1.52
DRose - 5th for all point guards @ .81
AC Law - Tied for last @ 0.00

JLin - 10th for all point guards @ 5.7
DRose - 22nd for all point guards @ 5.2
AC Law - 53rd for all point guards @ 4.2

JLin - 35th for all point guards @ 2.33
DRose - 40th for all point guards @ 2.24
AC Law - 54th for all point guards @ 1.95

What do these stats tell you? First, even with the small sample size, the steals and blocks are way way off the charts. If JLin can build his confidence and just shoot close to the same percentages in the NBA as he did in the D-League, he will be playing at a very very high level. Jeremy should no doubt be the first guard off the bench and play at least 20+ mpg next season. If they redrafted this years class, he would be picked in the late first, early 2nd round right now. There is no way any organization which uses any advanced statistical analysis will not see his worth. I know that many will again down play these stats and say too small a sample size and that he is playing against the backups. However, if you've followed Jeremy through out the season, you will know a majority of his minutes were not during garbage time.


  1. I wish Lin was a stock in the stock market, and I can invest in the guy. The potential is there.

  2. too small a sample size and that he is playing against the backups.

  3. I'm a fan. I've been following him all season. I think Jeremy is an excellent defender, and he's probably a better ball hawk than most guards.

    But the reality is that some of his stats are incredibly inflated. His stats are off the charts *because* of the small sample size, not in spite of it. This is because Jeremy would pour it all out (often during garbage time) in 4-7 minutes because he's not sure he's going to get any more to prove himself. The per 48 minutes stats tend to favor energy, hustle guys and doesn't reflect their performance if they actually averaged 40 minutes a game every game.

    In the last two games where Jeremy has had extended minutes, his steal production drastically dropped. He had no more than two steals in each of the last three games, where he had 15-20+ minutes. Still very good numbers, and he could still prove to be one of the league's leaders in picking pockets-- but the truth is you can't focus and play suffocating D for that long of a stretch.

    What's impressed me in the last three games is that he's played with swagger and he didn't run the warriors offense into the ground. He's also way less reckless than AC Law, and may actually get to put his higher basketball IQ to use regularly next season.

  4. New Jeremy Lin interview video! lol

  5. You can consider Jeremy the de facto #1 in steals/minute in the league. The other guy played 5 mins the entire season and got 1 steal. (He is also averaged 28.8 pts/48 and 9.6 ast/48). Now that is truly too small a sample size.

    285 minutes is actually not that small of a sample size. That's equivalent to about 1/10th of a season for a starter. You can get a decent statistical sample with 1/10th of the total.

    What does matter though, as Albert also mentioned, is that a player with limited minutes can expend all their energy on hustle plays to boost their steals, blocks, defense, whereas they could not maintain the same level with heavy minutes. And it is true that a portion of the minutes were against backups.

    So yeah, obviously, you can't extrapolate his per-48 numbers to starter minutes and compare them directly to Rose. But there are plenty of other backups with limited time that aren't able to match Lin's numbers. So even if you compensate for the above factors, Lin could probably still be among the league leaders with more minutes.

    "There is no way any organization which uses any advanced statistical analysis will not see his worth."

    Unfortunately, the Warriors and Smart don't seem to grasp statistical analysis.

  6. It is insanity to compare J. Lin to D. Rose. It makes you look absurd and irrelevant. Please be serious, this is not.

  7. I was gonna compare his stats to Acie Law but then saw that JLin's per 48 minute stats for my selected categories are way better than Rose's as well. What wrong with that? It's not made up. It's real. Of course I realize it's a bit skewed and they would go down if he were playing way more minutes. I never said that he is even close to DRose in any way. However, I believe these stats show potentially that Jeremy can be more than just a decent back up. I could be wrong but I could be right as well. He has already proven all of the colleges such as CAL, Stanford, UCLA, as well as many other D1 colleges that they made a huge mistake overlooking him. I believe he will prove many wrong with his NBA career as well. So, just take it for what it is. Isn't it amazing that an undrafted, Ivy League, Asian American can lead the MVP of the NBA in selected 48 minute stats, even in his limited minutes? If it was just 12 minutes for the year (like Keith Smart's career minutes in the NBA) then yes this would be absurd and irrelevant. However, 284 minutes and 4 categories is not a joke.

  8. The only thing that this comparison reveals is a complete ignorance by the author of both statistics and basketball.

  9. Nice to hear from you reality-now! I guess you missed the last few weeks of the season. Just to fill you in, Jeremy came back from his third stint in the D-League and played in 6 NBA games. He only had 7 steals and 0 blocks. So, he didn't help out his steal and block stats much. However, he was 11-22 from the field, 9-10 from the line, 1-3 from three, and had 17 assists to 4 turnovers...Yeah, I guess you do know more than me about stats and basketball. Thanks for the kind words.

  10. The stats cannot be compared that way, because most of the time he is not playing against the opposing team's starting five. He's playing against the 2nd or 3rd string guard off the bench like an Eric Maynor or Goran Dragic. Even though some of them are surprisingly good, he's not going to get as many steals, blocks, or points against the starters.

  11. To be clear, I didn't mean to be insulting. And I don't disagree that Lin will have better years ahead of him. However, don't let your fan-dom cloud your judgement. To put in perspective how crazy the comparison is look at Charlie Bell's numbers. He played 171 minutes this season.

    1.68 Steals/48
    5.1 Rebounds/48
    .28 Blocks/48
    2.17 Assist/Turnover

    He's not that far from D. Rose. Using your logic, he too may "be more than just a decent back up". This is ludicrous and not serious.

  12. Chih,

    Thanks for the clarification. Charlie Bell has been a decent back on other teams just not the Warriors. Could it be that he wasn't given a chance either or any consistent backup minutes? He has actually started a bunch of games too. Please go back and look at his career stats.

  13. My point is comparing Bell with Rose is as ridiculous. No one would do it. It makes no sense. People compare Michael Jordan and Dwayne Wade with Rose, to put J. Lin in such company is not serious.

    I live in Wisconsin and grew up watching B10 basketball. I watched Bell play at Michigan State and in Milwaukee. I would hope Lin could do better.

  14. Love this site but comparing Lin to Rose takes down the credibility a little bit. We all like Lin's game and want to see him do well, but there is just no sense in comparing him to the league's MVP.

  15. My hope for someone like Jeremy Lin is that he will set an example for other young Asian Americans, not just in basketball, but in other parts of society where they are grossly under-represented. Example, there's only one Chinese/Taiwanese American Fortune 500 CEO. Another example, if the most highly visible former Silicon Valley CEO of Taiwanese descent had been more than just a brilliant engineer, and had the mental toughness of an NBA player, he wouldn't have been such a bust.

    Comparisons to DRose aren't necessary. It is fair to compare him to Charlie Bell. Bell has an 8 million dollar contract. If Lin achieves that level, he will take what basketball gives him as a means to a greater end, whether it is in religion, politics, or business.

  16. well, let's be fair. He (the admin) does a good job; just gets too far ahead of himself sometimes :-)

  17. i was actually just seeing how fast my comment would be deleted haha but amazingly it is still there

    why is reality-now defending the admin though lol what is the world coming to

  18. Rick Adelman just became available. Please Lacob, hire him or Jerry Sloan or Jeff Van Gundy. Do it soon.

  19. It might be a little too soon to compare Lin to Rose but it's exciting as a fan nonetheless to be optimistic as to his potential. Yes, it may be ludicrous to compare him to Rose right now but as Lin is just starting out, who knows, given the right team and circumstances, what he could accomplish. Those writing him off now are speaking too soon. Even the naysayers have to admit they couldn't have predicted his success to this point. At least his stats are good so far. Would we even be having a discussion about his potential if his stats looked like Acie Law's? At least it's a great start for a rookie playing limited, inconsistent minutes and playing D-league yo-yo. Look, no one predicted Rose would be a MVP candidate at the start of the season. NO ONE predicted Lin would even make it to the NBA so let's see what he can do next season after a summer's diet of weights and conditioning. At the very least, we shouldn't dismiss the stats for what its worth but rather look at them with a grain of salt. If the stats are crappy, peeps will say he's finished. If his stats look good, the same pessimists will say the sample is too small and so forth. The fans will definitely have a more positive outlook on his potential. The glass is half full for me. At the least, it shows promise and don't ever count out that he's got God on his side and if he wants Lin to do well, nothing we say will change his destiny.

  20. Regarding "Stats," there is a recent post on GSOM that is interesting.

    Suggest everyone read this no matter which side of this argument you take.

  21. If Lin had signed with Dallas or the Lakers, he'd be on a playoff team right now. Being on a well coached, competitive team is key to a player's development and success.
    The Warriors are a bottom dwelling team with bad coaching and limited resources. He will not get better sitting on the bench of that team.

  22. Sounds like Dumbo is coming back, so Lin will be reduced to 1) drive and kick, and 2)pass the ball to Monta and run as far away from play as possible.

    If he resigns with Warriors (assuming they actually don't get real coach), I have to assume he chose a marketing career (basically the LeBron James of the Bay Area), and really isn't interested in a real NBA career.

  23. Actually, Lin is in a very good position for an undrafted rookie. The Warriors are almost certain to sign him (around $770,000) He would be a free agent at the end of the year and could then command Charlie Bell money. If the W's don't sign him, he's free to negotiate with any team. This year's performance, albeit limited, certainly shows he is a worthy low first round, high second round choice.

