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Northern Sky

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  1. The incredibly dry outlook continues right to the end of the GFS. I'm already having to water the garden! Cloudy, grey, cool and dry. Hardly exciting stuff.
  2. Nice to finally see the high pressure retreating somewhat towards the end of the ECM. It's incredibly boring weather, I'm looking forward to a bit of wind and rain hopefully.
  3. Very true, it's the hope that's killed us! It's been rubbish but actually better here than a few recent Winters in that we had lying snow for a few days. However when placed against the expectations given by the long range models and the background signals this seasons model watching has been an exhausting kick in the teeth . You just know we'll get a cold, wet Spring and Summer to 'make up' for it.
  4. I might be wrong but isn't high level blocking more likely late Feb/March than any other time in Winter simply due to seasonal wavelengths? It seems to have been a pattern over the last few years that March has often been colder or at least had colder spells than many of the Winter months that precede it. I think @Catacol's post is very interesting regarding a kind of 'modern climate' perhaps confusing (if that's the right word) the long range models and expected teleconnections. Throw in a possible solar minimum over the next few years and we could be in for some interesting weather.
  5. I think there had been a little bit of snow in Cross Gates earlier. Thick frost, fog and even a little bit of snow, absolutely loved it today.
  6. Looks rubbish on the latest Met video, doesn't reach Yorkshire.
  7. What's the chance of any showers pushing in later? Look North showed a few but I remain doubtful they always seem to fizzle out before they get to north Leeds. Not sure what to think of Thursday yet over on the model thread the consensus seems to be on the front only reaching the midlands - although perhaps if it pivots we will get something later?
  8. I wouldn't write Thursday off yet. The ECM has actually moved it north overnight. The GFS and Netweather's own model have it reaching us too. Not so good on UKMO and ICON. probably won't know till the day.
  9. It looks that way yes. Last nights 10 day ECM mean was great, today it's rubbish. What the reality will be I don't know and neither it seems does the ECM.
  10. I don't mind the idea of the two threads but I'd just ask that if people do some model analysis they post it in both threads and keep the OT/one liners to this thread. That way I can just give this thread a miss without fear of missing some good posts.
  11. I've been reading this forum for years and you soon learn who to take notice of and who to put on ignore. I think before people start criticising the "experts" they should perhaps examine their own interpretation of what they are saying. There are a number of very knowledgeable posters on here that are brave enough to make predictions based on their interpretations of the background signals and teleconnections. The signal for a possible turn to cold weather has been highlighted by many of these posters to commence around the middle of Jan. Over the course of the past month I think that date has been put back by around a week or two, so from about the 5th of Jan to the 19th. The reasons for this delay have been explained in large part to the uncertainties around timing of any downwelling of the SSW. How on earth is anyone meant to be able to predict that with precision? For a long time the models were showing endless HP over us in FI, we are now at the stage where the transition to a possible cold pattern is showing up. Everything still looks on course for a change but it doesn't look likely until the last third of the month.
  12. Given the fluctuations and uncertainties in the medium to long term outlook I'm just going to concentrate on the model output to T120. As long as it continues to look as good as the ICON
  13. Still two weeks away from the mooted change to colder weather. I don't really see anything has changed over the last few days. If we are to get a change to cold around that time the output should start to show the building blocks towards it. As bluearmy says above the ridge of high pressure over us is part of that. Whether things work out for us is another matter but I'm not worrying yet. The prospect of some frosty/foggy weather is very appealing but if it turns out o be a cloudy high it will be dull in every sense of the word.
  14. Wait, what? Surely it's either going to be absolutely incredible, fantastic raging cold or desperate, horrendous, endless mild? We live in a world where there is only two possible outcomes to anything... ...don't we?
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