The great rivalry of the 20th century, at least from the America perspective, was between the United States and the Soviet Union. Geopolitical chroniclers see the great rivalry of the 21st century as between the United States and China. In the nine months between his inauguration and 9/11, President George W. Bush advanced the idea of China as America’s peer competitor. President Barack Obama executed the “pivot to Asia,” based on the argument that while the U.S. was mired in the Middle East, the most important global shifts were taking place in Asia. Today, the U.S. and China are increasingly rival superpowers, albeit deeply interdependent frenemies.

China experts and U.S. foreign policy pundits divide into two broad camps as to how this rivalry will pay out. One school sees China expanding its global reach through its “belt and road” initiative, building infrastructure and influence from Beijing to Berlin by both land and sea, as well as investing and cultivating relationships throughout Africa and Latin America. China’s leadership has the luxury of long-term thinking; it excels at patient, long-term strategy. The U.S., meanwhile, is actively pulling back from the world, deliberately alienating allies and turning its back on the rules-based international order it has invested in so deeply since 1945.




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