Publications of Goldthau, Andreas

Saudi Arabia and the Shifting Geoeconomics of Oil

Oil prices plunged more than 50 percent between mid-2014 and mid-2015. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was widely expected to cut production in an effort to arrest the price decline. And yet OPEC did no such thing. As it left production levels unchanged and prices fell further, observers were quick to declare that the cartel was over a barrel. In fact, however, OPEC as an institution—and Saudi Arabia, its leader—is likely to emerge from this paradigm shift stronger than before in many ways. With its new strategy the kingdom is emphasizing market share, rather than price, while also moving to delegate the burden of balancing the world oil market to the U.S. shale industry. The move, therefore, marks a significant change in the geoeconomics of oil.

Between a rock and a hard place : international market dynamics, domestic politics and Gazprom's strategy

Gazprom, Russian's prime state owned gas producer, is facing severe pressure stemming from international gas market dynamics, EU regulation and the Ukraine crisis. Slowing gas demand coupled with shifting pricing models and a persisting transit issue pose significant challenges for Gazprom's business going forward. Domestic pressure emerges from competition arising from private companies, mainly Notatek, but also state owned rival Rosneft, and is reinforced by governmental moves toward more market oriented Russian gas sector organization. Gazprom's options include pivoting to alternative markets, notably China; reverting to international legal bodies and market principles to counter EU regulatory pressures; and to depoliticize gas trade in order to generate long term expectations on its prime market - Europe. We pose that neither of these options is likely to fully solve Gazprom's dilemma, whose competitive position will arguably further weaken both domestically and internationally. We believe that Gazprom's best option would be to aim for depoliticizing gas trade, by way of giving up its de facto monopoly on gas exports to Europe.

The Ukraine Challenge and Europe's Energy Needs Collide

The crisis in Ukraine is the most severe security challenge in Europe after the Cold War. Energy has featured prominently in public debates surrounding the conflict. Yet, energy-market realities hinder some of the political preferences that currently feature prominently in the hallways of European capital cities. European policy makers should therefore push for separating energy from hard security issues in this conflict.