Thailand: Actions Have Consequences





The new king helped persuade the pro-democracy groups (which still have the majority of voters with them) to remain calm and they have. In late 2015 pro-democracy leader (and former prime minister) Thaksin Shinawatra called on his followers (the “red shirts”) to “play dead” for the moment and wait for the military government to allow elections. The military had agreed to elections in 2018 but only after some fundamental changes were made in the constitution. The problem is the new rules give the military permanent power and privileges that an elected government would have a difficult time (via changing the constitution) repealing. The red shirts are not pleased with all this but were persuaded, despite more delays. Now elections are firmly set for February but so are a host of new laws that make democracy much less democratic.




Southern Violence Continues To Fade

The peace talks with southern separatist groups, which began in 2014, are stalled because the separatists refuse to make a deal until there is an elected government in Thailand. Another stumbling block is that the largest separatist group, BRN, has refused to negotiate unless there are international mediators. The Thai government refuses to allow foreigners to play a role and is believed uninterested in any autonomy deal. An elected government is expected to have the same attitude. Despite all that, the newly elected Malaysian leader is seeking a way to get the peace talks going, if only because those three provinces are becoming a sanctuary for Malaysian Islamic terrorists. The Malaysian terrorists are fairly secure in those three Thai provinces as long as they stay out of sight and cause no trouble. But from their Thai hideouts, they can organize fatal mayhem in Malaysia.


The Moslem south has other problems to deal with. For example, Yala province has experienced a measles epidemic that began in June and by November there were over 1,500 cases. Most of these patients are children and twelve have died so far. The source of this outbreak is a number of local Islamic radicals who have persuaded (or intimidated) many parents do not have their children vaccinated because of rumors that the vaccine was actually a plot by non-Moslems (most Thais are Buddhists) to poison Moslem children or pollute them because vaccines are believed to contain material from pigs (which are considered haram, or unclean, for Moslems). It’s not just measles vaccine that gets denounced but other vaccines as well. The senior cleric in the south was finally persuaded to openly announce that the vaccinations did not violate any Islamic laws.

December 26, 2018: Another sign that the pro-China attitudes are weakening occurred today as a court acquitted a Chinese couple of visa violations and allowed them to stay in Thailand. China had requested that the couple be sent back to China to be punished for their pro-reform activities. In the past, the military government had promptly carried out Chinese requests for the return of dissidents but most Thais, even in the military, were never very enthusiastic about becoming too dependent on Chinese goodwill.

December 24, 2018: In the south (Narathiwat province), a police vehicle was hit with a roadside bomb leaving one policeman dead and five wounded. In nearby Songkhla province (just north of the three Moslem provinces and also bordering Malaysia) someone placed five and detonated two bombs near two popular beach attractions (the Cat and Mouse Sculpture and a Mermaid statue). The Mermaid statue was damaged slightly. The explosions occurred at 10 PM so no one was hurt, but there were no witnesses either. The statues honor ancient Thai legends and that offends Islamic terror groups especially since the statues attract a lot of Moslem tourists (mainly from Thailand and Malaysia). No one has taken credit for the bombing. Tourism is currently undergoing rapid growth. For 2018 tourist arrivals were up 7.5 percent and tourist revenue up nearly ten percent. Nearly 30 percent of the visitors come from China and about ten percent come from neighboring Malaysia.

December 22, 2018: A force of 273 soldiers left for a year of peacekeeping duty in South Sudan. The Thai troops will serve in a UN peacekeeping effort.

December 14, 2018: In South Korea Thai, naval officers accepted delivery of a 3,700 ton frigate recently completed in South Korea. The HTMS Tachin will arrive in Thailand on January 6th. The 136 man crew are already in South Korea. Another of these frigates is being assembled in Thailand.

December 12, 2018: In the south (Narathiwat province), soldiers patrolling a rural area encountered ten armed men in a hastily built camp. After a ten minute gun battle, the ten men fled into the forest. Apparently, two were wounded and the troops pursued but were unable to catch the fugitives.

December 11, 2018: The military government lifted many of the prohibitions on political activity although restrictions on criticism of the military government remain in force. Opposition political groups want all the restrictions lifted but the military will not do that as it will hurt pro-military candidates for parliament.

November 28, 2018: Thailand and Malaysia are again seizing people smuggler boats full of Burmese Rohingya Moslems seeking to reach a Moslem majority country like Malaysia or, preferably, Indonesia. Few make it to Indonesia and most are stopped at sea by warships or coast guard patrols and returned to where they came from. Sometimes smugglers are arrested but the main goal is to prevent Rohingya Moslems from landing in other nations and claiming asylum, which the destination countries do not want to grant.


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