Sunday, June 19, 2016

No, the Republicans Aren't Going Away, but They're Fractured.

I'm astounded that 39% of the American electorate say they're voting for Donald Trump. What does that even mean?

Even those of us who believe that the Republican Party's message for the past four decades is largely deceptive and destructive to American society understand that the fraud has not run its course, and the Republican Party, as shattered as it is, isn't going away.

Why not?
  • The core of the Republican base is essentially racist: Calling the Republican Party the White People's Party is demonstrably true. Those who fear the black and the brown and even the tan will have to find a home with the GOP. They have no choice.
  • The NRA and the GOP have convinced a good number of gun owners that Obama and Clinton want to take away all of their guns. That's not true, but those people who believe some form of the lie have nowhere to go politically but the Republican Party.
  • Welfare for the poor or near-poor doesn't cost very much compared to subsidies to energy giants or tax breaks to corporations and the wealthy, but a good number of working-class whites -- and just plain "it's my money, fuck you" people who hide behind "personal responsibility" to underfund public services -- will support the Republican Party simply because of identity politics.
  • Where do the anti-abortion evangelicals go? Asked and answered.
  • Because of the size of the military-industrial complex, there are likely several million people who know which side of their bread is buttered and by whom. Fearing the Democrats might dismantle the MIC -- which of course they wouldn't do to any meaningful extent -- leads some of these national-security hawks to stay with the GOP, if only for self-interest and because where would they go?
Thus the momentum of a political movement built on long-disproven economic, social, and political lies is unstoppable in the near term. However, the Republican Party is in tatters, mostly because the white working class that drank the Kool-Aid have come to realize that the GOP isn't delivering, period. If the Democratic Party can deal with the misconceptions and convince an aggrieved class -- and rightfully aggrieved, I should add -- that they are the party of the working class, then the GOP has a right to fear for its existence.

Until then, the Republican Party will sputter along, coasting on its successes on the local and state level. Even that will come under threat as more minorities achieve citizenship and get registered to vote. But the national GOP voice is weak and getting weaker.

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