Second Things


MSNBC’s “First Read” on how the early voting results seem to mirror its overall poll results:

One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break [for Obama] by an identical 51%-43% margin.

Hmm. Is this breakdown in early voting really such good news for Obama? You’d think, given the enthusiasm gap between the two candidates’ supporters, that Obama voters would tend to be early voters. That means the voters left to vote on election day will be the more undecided, more pro-McCain voters, no? The final results should be less pro-Obama than the early results. Which means if the early voting is 51-43, then the overall MSNBC poll showing a 51-43 Obama edge is off–and Obama is actually  less than 8 points ahead, no? Just asking!  …  2:24 P.M.

Typically, Republicans have held the advantage with early voters. So if this were a typical year, you might expect Obama’s lead in the general to be even better than 51-43. But is this a typical year? Democrats have been pushing hard for early voting, or late voting if you include all the dead and nonexistent voters ACORN and other groups have voting absentee.

So what does it all mean?

Uh… ask me after the polls start closing. Or maybe after the lawyers start making their closing arguments sometime in December.