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Looking at important padres going forward, lucky/unlucky?

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  • Looking at important padres going forward, lucky/unlucky?

    With some help from a hardball times article (in 2009) I have recently been able to use a expected babip calculator. Lets ignore guys like Alonso, Quentin, Stults, and bullpen arms, as well as solarte/almonte who don't profile as everyday guys, also anyone over 30 (that is basically just smith). So here are the expected babip and actual babip's of the players that have realistic potential to have value to padres going forward.

    One note, the calculator uses infield hit % which is why I think speed is already accounted for.

    Grandal: expected babip 287, actual babip 257. One thing to consider is Grandal is hitting a lot more fly balls this season which could project good power production going forward

    Gyorko: expected babip 312, actual babip 232, there are reasons for optimism going forward beyond this, though he has the virtual same bb%/k% as last year his contact rate is up and swinging strike percentage is down.

    Everth: Expect babip 363, actual babip 294. Everth has stopped hitting the ball in the air his fly ball rate dropped from 18.9% to 12.3% this year, and he hasn't sacrificed any of his line drive rate of 20.8 this year to 20.6 last year. Everth if he keeps hitting like this will probably be an empty singles hitter whose value comes from SS and his ability to steal bases, this is of course unless he can lower the strikeout rate.

    Maybin: Maybin is probably not in the future padres plans but still I will list him. Expect babip 302, actual babip 313, Maybin's seen a plummet in line drive percentage to 15% and is hitting infield fly balls 19.5% of time (compared to his career average of 9.8%), he still hits a ton of groundballs (57% of time).

    If you have any recommendations on players I would gladly oblige.

    Will do pitchers such as Hahn/cashner/erlin/ross later