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2019-02-01 | 2018-01-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-27", 0.3], ["2018-01-27", 0.2], ["2018-01-27", 0.2], ["2018-01-27", 0.198], ["2018-01-27", 0.198], ["2018-01-27", 0.198], ["2018-01-27", 0.229], ["2018-01-28", 0.254], ["2018-01-28", 0.287], ["2018-01-28", 0.301], ["2018-01-29", 0.301], ["2018-01-29", 0.312], ["2018-01-29", 0.325], ["2018-01-29", 0.337], ["2018-01-29", 0.361], ["2018-01-30", 0.361], ["2018-01-30", 0.353], ["2018-01-30", 0.353], ["2018-01-30", 0.351], ["2018-01-31", 0.351], ["2018-02-01", 0.363], ["2018-02-02", 0.358], ["2018-02-03", 0.354], ["2018-02-03", 0.349], ["2018-02-03", 0.349], ["2018-02-04", 0.349], ["2018-02-04", 0.355], ["2018-02-05", 0.347], ["2018-02-05", 0.347], ["2018-02-05", 0.361], ["2018-02-05", 0.365], ["2018-02-05", 0.377], ["2018-02-06", 0.377], ["2018-02-08", 0.38], ["2018-02-09", 0.386], ["2018-02-11", 0.388], ["2018-02-11", 0.387], ["2018-02-12", 0.387], ["2018-02-14", 0.401], ["2018-02-14", 0.418], ["2018-02-15", 0.418], ["2018-02-15", 0.436], ["2018-02-16", 0.436], ["2018-02-18", 0.443], ["2018-02-19", 0.443], ["2018-02-22", 0.447], ["2018-02-22", 0.447], ["2018-02-24", 0.445], ["2018-02-24", 0.445], ["2018-02-24", 0.445], ["2018-02-24", 0.445], ["2018-02-24", 0.445], ["2018-02-25", 0.445], ["2018-02-27", 0.445], ["2018-02-28", 0.444], ["2018-03-01", 0.446]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/620/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | During 2017, various political developments surrounding the U.S. Executive Branch generated a fair number of weird and frankly jaw-dropping news stories. The drumbeat of news that would have seemed outrageous just a year or so ago may have had a hand in lowering the bar for outre items in the venerable Gray Lady.
In December of 2017, the New York Times gave front-page coverage to a bewildering investigative report of Glowing Auras and Black Money: The Pentagon’s Mysterious U.F.O. Program, co-authored by Times journalists Cooper, Blumenthal, and Kean. While taking a generally neutral stance, the report and associated coverage was nonetheless rather startling to readers steeped in the application of Occam's Razor. Indeed, the tone and content led some to notice a correlation with a general uptick in alien-themed astronomy papers and attendant media attention, including the "Megastructures" posited to be orbiting KIC 8462852, and the publicized attempts to monitor 'Oumuamua for artificial broadcasts.
During 2018, will the New York Times publish a news story in which U.F.O.s or associated phenomena (within Earth's Hill Sphere) constitute a substantial part of the narrative? To resolve as positive, the story must run in the main, "A" section of the print-version paper | true | 2018-03-01 | Another NYT News Story about U.F.O.s this Year? | metaculus | 0 |
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Recent examples that have risen to some prominence in the public eye include (i) an article suggesting that the star KIC 8462852 is an outstanding SETI target because its light curve is consistent with a swarm of megastructures, (ii) the proposal that fast radio bursts are associated with extragalactic light sails, and (iii) the use of the Green Bank Radio Telescope to assess whether the interstellar asteroid 'Oumuamua is (as memorably phrased by researcher Seth Shostak) a "rock or a rocket".
Given the clear public interest in alien-themed astronomical hypotheses, one can speculate whether further work of this nature will be deemed newsworthy by the New York Times. As a companion to this question which touches on The Times' coverage of U.F.O.s within Earth's Hill Sphere, we ask:
During the span from February through December of 2018, will the New York Times publish a news story in which intelligent extraterrestrial agency is discussed as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon? To resolve as positive, the story must concern astronomical observations of an object outside of the Earth-enveloping Earth-Sun L1 Jacobi equipotential, and must run in the main, "A" section of the print-version paper. | true | 2018-12-31 | A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will the launch succeed?
To be counted a success, the payload must be launched intact on a trajectory that leaves Earth's orbit. The launch must proceed using the rocket currently at the launch pad, and be carried out by the end of 2018. | true | 2018-02-06 | Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-07-05 | 2018-01-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-01-31", 0.4], ["2018-01-31", 0.365], ["2018-01-31", 0.372], ["2018-01-31", 0.372], ["2018-01-31", 0.23], ["2018-01-31", 0.23], ["2018-01-31", 0.264], ["2018-02-01", 0.264], ["2018-02-01", 0.249], ["2018-02-01", 0.237], ["2018-02-01", 0.289], ["2018-02-01", 0.296], ["2018-02-01", 0.308], ["2018-02-01", 0.308], ["2018-02-02", 0.292], ["2018-02-02", 0.292], ["2018-02-02", 0.298], ["2018-02-02", 0.305], ["2018-02-02", 0.305], ["2018-02-03", 0.31], ["2018-02-03", 0.31], ["2018-02-03", 0.312], ["2018-02-03", 0.303], ["2018-02-03", 0.303], ["2018-02-04", 0.303], ["2018-02-04", 0.308], ["2018-02-04", 0.309], ["2018-02-04", 0.308], ["2018-02-04", 0.308], ["2018-02-04", 0.302], ["2018-02-05", 0.306], ["2018-02-05", 0.306], ["2018-02-05", 0.301], ["2018-02-05", 0.321], ["2018-02-05", 0.313], ["2018-02-05", 0.311], ["2018-02-05", 0.309], ["2018-02-05", 0.309], ["2018-02-05", 0.298], ["2018-02-05", 0.293], ["2018-02-05", 0.292], ["2018-02-05", 0.296], ["2018-02-06", 0.3], ["2018-02-06", 0.301], ["2018-02-06", 0.298], ["2018-02-06", 0.298], ["2018-02-06", 0.296], ["2018-02-06", 0.3], ["2018-02-07", 0.302], ["2018-02-07", 0.302], ["2018-02-08", 0.308], ["2018-02-09", 0.309], ["2018-02-09", 0.309], ["2018-02-09", 0.302], ["2018-02-09", 0.308], ["2018-02-09", 0.308], ["2018-02-09", 0.307], ["2018-02-10", 0.303], ["2018-02-11", 0.303], ["2018-02-11", 0.301], ["2018-02-13", 0.298], ["2018-02-14", 0.298], ["2018-02-14", 0.295], ["2018-02-15", 0.292], ["2018-02-15", 0.29], ["2018-02-15", 0.289], ["2018-02-16", 0.289], ["2018-02-16", 0.289], ["2018-02-19", 0.287], ["2018-02-21", 0.295], ["2018-02-22", 0.293], ["2018-02-23", 0.305], ["2018-02-27", 0.305], ["2018-03-03", 0.305], ["2018-03-08", 0.306], ["2018-03-10", 0.306], ["2018-03-10", 0.302], ["2018-03-10", 0.302], ["2018-03-11", 0.302], ["2018-03-12", 0.302], ["2018-03-12", 0.309], ["2018-03-12", 0.305], ["2018-03-14", 0.305], ["2018-03-15", 0.312], ["2018-03-15", 0.312], ["2018-03-16", 0.312], ["2018-03-18", 0.322], ["2018-03-19", 0.319], ["2018-03-21", 0.319], ["2018-03-21", 0.318], ["2018-03-26", 0.324], ["2018-03-27", 0.324], ["2018-03-27", 0.323], ["2018-03-28", 0.321], ["2018-03-28", 0.32], ["2018-03-28", 0.319], ["2018-04-02", 0.319], ["2018-04-03", 0.316], ["2018-04-03", 0.315], ["2018-04-03", 0.314], ["2018-04-04", 0.314]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/633/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As Mueller's investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 election continues, discussion has begun as to whether Trump himself will testify under oath.
President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday 1/24/2018 that he’s “looking forward” to being questioned — under oath — in the special counsel’s probe of Russian election interference and possible Trump obstruction in the firing of the FBI director. Trump said he would be willing to answer questions under oath in the interview, which special counsel Robert Mueller has been seeking but which White house officials had not previously said the president would grant. “I’m looking forward to it, actually,” Trump said when asked by reporters at the White House. As for timing, he said, “I guess they’re talking about two or three weeks, but I’d love to do it.”
White House council has, reportedly, been looking to constrain and/or manage the terms of the any such interview.
Will Trump in fact submit to an interview by Independence Day 7/4/2018?
Resolution is positive if by July 4 Trump testifies under questioning by Mueller or one of his team, in connection with the ongoing investigation. The interview need not be broadcast or publicly accessible, but it should be in-person (not for example written responses to questions) and interrogatory (i.e. not a single statement made verbally under oath, nor just answers with no followups to questions that are known to Trump+team in advance.)
Resolution will be negative if Trump testifies before a grand jury before being interviewed by one Mueller's team.
(Edit Feb 4, 2018: Specified resolution criteria in the case of Trump testifying before a grand jury.)
(Edit Feb 9, 2018: Removed "under oath") | true | 2018-04-04 | Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation? | metaculus | 0 |
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However, Oprah has stated that she does not intend to run for the presidency. This question asks:
Will she change her mind (or perhaps reveal her true intentions) by officially declaring her candidacy for 2020?
Resolution is positive upon widespread media reports of Oprah declaring her candidacy for the 2020 election. She is not required to win the election or the primary. She can even drop out of the race before a vote is cast. Negative if she does not declare by the end of the Democratic National Convention in 2020. | true | 2018-09-30 | Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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The main culprit this year has been the H3N2 virus—the deadliest of the seasonal strains—but it’s been abetted by a downturn in recent years in the number of people getting their flu shots.
We ask: Will this flu season be worse than the 2014 - 2015 season?
The question resolves positive if:
According to the influenza surveillance report prepared by the Influenza Division of the CDC, the cumulative rate (per 100,000 population) of influenza hospitalizations over the FluSurv-NET surveillance area exceeds the 2014-2015 season peak of 64.2 for the “overall” age group.
Data available as of 2/1/18 indicate a cumulative rate of 41.9 as of the third week of 2018, and a plot of cumulative rates is available here. | true | 2018-03-04 | Will this flu season be worse than the 2014 - 2015 season? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-02-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-05", 0.39], ["2018-02-05", 0.21], ["2018-02-05", 0.243], ["2018-02-05", 0.233], ["2018-02-05", 0.233], ["2018-02-05", 0.198], ["2018-02-05", 0.198], ["2018-02-05", 0.168], ["2018-02-05", 0.148], ["2018-02-05", 0.149], ["2018-02-05", 0.149], ["2018-02-05", 0.186], ["2018-02-06", 0.168], ["2018-02-06", 0.168], ["2018-02-06", 0.151], ["2018-02-06", 0.143], ["2018-02-06", 0.143], ["2018-02-06", 0.143], ["2018-02-06", 0.147], ["2018-02-06", 0.139], ["2018-02-06", 0.136], ["2018-02-06", 0.137], ["2018-02-06", 0.133], ["2018-02-07", 0.132], ["2018-02-07", 0.13], ["2018-02-07", 0.13], ["2018-02-07", 0.124], ["2018-02-08", 0.121], ["2018-02-08", 0.137], ["2018-02-08", 0.137], ["2018-02-08", 0.158], ["2018-02-08", 0.158], ["2018-02-08", 0.153], ["2018-02-08", 0.153], ["2018-02-08", 0.152], ["2018-02-09", 0.155], ["2018-02-09", 0.155], ["2018-02-09", 0.153], ["2018-02-10", 0.151], ["2018-02-10", 0.147], ["2018-02-11", 0.146], ["2018-02-11", 0.142], ["2018-02-12", 0.139], ["2018-02-12", 0.139], ["2018-02-12", 0.136], ["2018-02-12", 0.135], ["2018-02-14", 0.135], ["2018-02-15", 0.136], ["2018-02-15", 0.134], ["2018-02-16", 0.137], ["2018-02-17", 0.135], ["2018-02-19", 0.135], ["2018-02-19", 0.139], ["2018-02-22", 0.143], ["2018-02-22", 0.143], ["2018-02-22", 0.14], ["2018-02-22", 0.14], ["2018-02-24", 0.142], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-24", 0.141], ["2018-02-25", 0.145], ["2018-02-25", 0.145], ["2018-03-02", 0.143], ["2018-03-02", 0.148], ["2018-03-04", 0.148], ["2018-03-05", 0.148], ["2018-03-05", 0.15], ["2018-03-07", 0.148], ["2018-03-07", 0.148], ["2018-03-11", 0.147], ["2018-03-12", 0.147], ["2018-03-12", 0.147], ["2018-03-12", 0.149], ["2018-03-13", 0.147], ["2018-03-14", 0.15]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/636/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but the proportion is rapidly rising.
Coin offerings have three apparent contributors to their success. First, blockchain-related startups are a dynamic field, and ICOs for coins that provide utility in blockchain-based ventures are thus getting attention and funding. Second, even in companies whose business is not centrally blockchain-based, ICOs are providing a novel form of crowd-based participatory investment, requiring much less effort and paperwork than venture funding so that investment and participation is open to a community of people rather than a relatively small number of early-stage investors. Third, of course, the fact that cryptocurrencies have been rapidly rising of late has led to a great deal of speculative purchasing of coins based on the (quite unreliable) assumption that they will appreciate.
Given that Metaculus is a crowd-based concern with a knowledgeable and (to some degree) crypto-savvy community, and already has an onsite token, it is a natural candidate for a coin offering. On the other hand, Metaculus is run by careful and risk-averse founders who are intimately in touch with the extraordinary unpredictability and volaility of the cryptocurrency field. And there is a good deal of regulatory uncertainty surrounding ICOs in the US and elsewhere... So what do you think:
Will there be a Metaculus ICO in 2018?
Resolution will be positive if prior to start of 2019 a cryptocurrency identified with Metaculus is (a) listed on any of icodrops, tokendata or coinschedules, or (b) if by credible report more than $10,000 total value in cryptocurrency or other currency has been exchanged by more than 25 people for a Metaculus-related cryptocurrency. | true | 2018-03-15 | Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-04-02 | 2018-02-04 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-06", 0.67], ["2018-02-06", 0.67], ["2018-02-06", 0.625], ["2018-02-06", 0.615], ["2018-02-06", 0.682], ["2018-02-06", 0.682], ["2018-02-06", 0.693], ["2018-02-06", 0.735], ["2018-02-07", 0.735], ["2018-02-07", 0.733], ["2018-02-07", 0.74], ["2018-02-07", 0.74], ["2018-02-07", 0.755], ["2018-02-07", 0.755], ["2018-02-08", 0.755], ["2018-02-08", 0.734], ["2018-02-08", 0.737], ["2018-02-08", 0.752], ["2018-02-08", 0.722], ["2018-02-08", 0.722], ["2018-02-08", 0.721], ["2018-02-08", 0.727], ["2018-02-08", 0.733], ["2018-02-08", 0.733], ["2018-02-08", 0.733], ["2018-02-08", 0.739], ["2018-02-08", 0.746], ["2018-02-08", 0.756], ["2018-02-08", 0.752], ["2018-02-08", 0.756], ["2018-02-09", 0.759], ["2018-02-09", 0.759], ["2018-02-09", 0.763], ["2018-02-09", 0.761], ["2018-02-10", 0.763], ["2018-02-10", 0.766], ["2018-02-10", 0.759], ["2018-02-10", 0.761], ["2018-02-10", 0.758], ["2018-02-11", 0.755], ["2018-02-11", 0.757], ["2018-02-11", 0.751], ["2018-02-11", 0.751], ["2018-02-12", 0.747], ["2018-02-12", 0.745], ["2018-02-12", 0.746], ["2018-02-13", 0.746], ["2018-02-13", 0.74], ["2018-02-13", 0.74], ["2018-02-14", 0.741], ["2018-02-14", 0.741], ["2018-02-14", 0.741], ["2018-02-14", 0.741], ["2018-02-14", 0.743], ["2018-02-15", 0.745], ["2018-02-16", 0.744], ["2018-02-16", 0.744], ["2018-02-17", 0.747], ["2018-02-17", 0.748], ["2018-02-18", 0.753], ["2018-02-19", 0.755], ["2018-02-19", 0.756], ["2018-02-21", 0.759], ["2018-02-21", 0.759], ["2018-02-21", 0.759], ["2018-02-22", 0.76], ["2018-02-22", 0.762], ["2018-02-22", 0.762], ["2018-02-22", 0.764], ["2018-02-24", 0.763], ["2018-02-25", 0.763], ["2018-02-25", 0.76], ["2018-02-25", 0.768], ["2018-02-26", 0.769], ["2018-02-27", 0.767], ["2018-02-28", 0.768], ["2018-02-28", 0.768]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/638/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In the ongoing investigation by Mueller at the FBI regarding Russia's role in the 2016 presidential election, Rod Rosenstein is a key figure. Given Jeff Session's recusal in the case, Rosenstein as acting AG is formally legally the highest official in the investigation, and the only individual currently with direct legal ability to fire (or otherwise instruct) Mueller. Thus any road to removing Mueller goes through Rosenstein.
A recent memo released by Republican House Intelligence committee head Nunes has led to fresh speculation that Rosenstein is being targeted. We'll ask:
Will Rosenstein still be the highest Justice Department official in the Mueller case on April 1?
Resolution is negative if as of April 1, 2018:
Rosenstein is fired or resigns or otherwise not acting AG in the case, or
Jeff Sessions is replaced by an AG who is not recused in the case
and resolution is positive otherwise. | true | 2018-03-01 | Will Rosenstein still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-03 | 2018-02-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-10", 0.175], ["2018-02-10", 0.175], ["2018-02-10", 0.22], ["2018-02-10", 0.22], ["2018-02-10", 0.225], ["2018-02-10", 0.264], ["2018-02-10", 0.264], ["2018-02-10", 0.266], ["2018-02-10", 0.266], ["2018-02-11", 0.264], ["2018-02-11", 0.261], ["2018-02-11", 0.297], ["2018-02-11", 0.319], ["2018-02-11", 0.343], ["2018-02-12", 0.343], ["2018-02-12", 0.363], ["2018-02-12", 0.369], ["2018-02-12", 0.397], ["2018-02-12", 0.402], ["2018-02-12", 0.407], ["2018-02-12", 0.389], ["2018-02-12", 0.381], ["2018-02-13", 0.381], ["2018-02-13", 0.381], ["2018-02-13", 0.392], ["2018-02-13", 0.373], ["2018-02-13", 0.373], ["2018-02-13", 0.366], ["2018-02-13", 0.366], ["2018-02-13", 0.367], ["2018-02-13", 0.378], ["2018-02-13", 0.378], ["2018-02-14", 0.375], ["2018-02-14", 0.382], ["2018-02-14", 0.382], ["2018-02-14", 0.373], ["2018-02-14", 0.379], ["2018-02-14", 0.375], ["2018-02-14", 0.375], ["2018-02-14", 0.377], ["2018-02-14", 0.393], ["2018-02-14", 0.393], ["2018-02-15", 0.395], ["2018-02-15", 0.395], ["2018-02-15", 0.406], ["2018-02-17", 0.418], ["2018-02-17", 0.41], ["2018-02-18", 0.414], ["2018-02-19", 0.412], ["2018-02-19", 0.412], ["2018-02-22", 0.408], ["2018-03-01", 0.408], ["2018-03-02", 0.41], ["2018-03-02", 0.41], ["2018-03-03", 0.429], ["2018-03-05", 0.435], ["2018-03-05", 0.436], ["2018-03-05", 0.436], ["2018-03-05", 0.438], ["2018-03-05", 0.438], ["2018-03-08", 0.439], ["2018-03-09", 0.439], ["2018-03-09", 0.439], ["2018-03-09", 0.439], ["2018-03-10", 0.431], ["2018-03-10", 0.427], ["2018-03-10", 0.427], ["2018-03-11", 0.43], ["2018-03-12", 0.43], ["2018-03-12", 0.43], ["2018-03-13", 0.431], ["2018-03-13", 0.431], ["2018-03-14", 0.431], ["2018-03-14", 0.432], ["2018-03-15", 0.427], ["2018-03-16", 0.423], ["2018-03-16", 0.423], ["2018-03-17", 0.423], ["2018-03-19", 0.426], ["2018-03-19", 0.426], ["2018-03-19", 0.426], ["2018-03-20", 0.426], ["2018-03-20", 0.428], ["2018-03-21", 0.422], ["2018-03-22", 0.423], ["2018-03-22", 0.423], ["2018-03-24", 0.429], ["2018-03-26", 0.429], ["2018-03-26", 0.429], ["2018-03-26", 0.43], ["2018-03-26", 0.431], ["2018-03-27", 0.433], ["2018-03-27", 0.433], ["2018-03-27", 0.428], ["2018-03-28", 0.426], ["2018-03-28", 0.426], ["2018-03-29", 0.425], ["2018-03-30", 0.426], ["2018-03-31", 0.424]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/642/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | US recessions matter for investors because the dips in the market caused by recessions can cause years of flat profits. Pulling out right before a recession and jumping in at the bottom of a recession can result in significant gains.
Various indices exist to attempt to predict when a recession will hit the US.
One example is the BCI by iMarketSignals. This index claims to predict a recession 10-20 weeks in advance. It currently shows no signs of a recession coming up.
Another indicator that precedes recessions by 1-1.5 years is the spread on 10 and 2 year Treasury bonds. This indicator also suggests we are at least 2 years out from a recession.
Lastly, the FED publishes an explicit recession probability graph. It suggests we are not at the cusp of a recession, though indicators lag about three months, so this data is at best a confirmation of an ongoing decline.
Question resolves positively if the NBER declares that a recession started at some point between Feb 10, 2018 and Jan 1, 2020 (inclusive).
Resolve date is more than a year and a half after the date in question because the NBER often takes a long time to declare recession boundaries (recent cases involve an entire year to call the start of the 2008 recession.) | true | 2018-04-01 | Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-29 | 2018-02-09 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-26", 0.66], ["2018-11-26", 0.645], ["2018-11-27", 0.562], ["2018-11-27", 0.556], ["2018-11-27", 0.492], ["2018-11-28", 0.493], ["2018-11-28", 0.479], ["2018-11-29", 0.472], ["2018-11-29", 0.48], ["2018-11-30", 0.465], ["2018-12-01", 0.465], ["2018-12-01", 0.465], ["2018-12-02", 0.47], ["2018-12-04", 0.47], ["2018-12-08", 0.465], ["2018-12-12", 0.451], ["2018-12-14", 0.46], ["2018-12-25", 0.46], ["2018-12-25", 0.466], ["2018-12-26", 0.465], ["2018-12-26", 0.471], ["2018-12-26", 0.471], ["2018-12-27", 0.467], ["2018-12-27", 0.474], ["2018-12-27", 0.467], ["2018-12-28", 0.471], ["2019-01-02", 0.47], ["2019-01-03", 0.47], ["2019-01-04", 0.47], ["2019-01-16", 0.466], ["2019-01-19", 0.469], ["2019-01-25", 0.469], ["2019-01-29", 0.467], ["2019-02-03", 0.467], ["2019-02-28", 0.464], ["2019-03-05", 0.455], ["2019-03-14", 0.455], ["2019-03-27", 0.452], ["2019-04-20", 0.452], ["2019-04-23", 0.445], ["2019-04-29", 0.445], ["2019-04-29", 0.389], ["2019-04-30", 0.385], ["2019-05-05", 0.385], ["2019-05-05", 0.378], ["2019-05-06", 0.373], ["2019-05-06", 0.371], ["2019-05-07", 0.37], ["2019-05-07", 0.373], ["2019-05-07", 0.376], ["2019-05-08", 0.376], ["2019-05-08", 0.378], ["2019-05-09", 0.376], ["2019-05-09", 0.376], ["2019-05-10", 0.369], ["2019-05-12", 0.369], ["2019-05-13", 0.359], ["2019-05-13", 0.358], ["2019-05-13", 0.351], ["2019-05-14", 0.348], ["2019-05-14", 0.345], ["2019-05-15", 0.343], ["2019-05-15", 0.342], ["2019-05-21", 0.342], ["2019-05-21", 0.345], ["2019-05-23", 0.345], ["2019-05-23", 0.345], ["2019-05-31", 0.345], ["2019-06-07", 0.343], ["2019-06-15", 0.343], ["2019-06-16", 0.341], ["2019-06-20", 0.341], ["2019-06-22", 0.345], ["2019-06-25", 0.339], ["2019-06-26", 0.339], ["2019-06-27", 0.34], ["2019-06-28", 0.34], ["2019-06-29", 0.338], ["2019-06-29", 0.338], ["2019-07-01", 0.346], ["2019-07-01", 0.346], ["2019-07-02", 0.346], ["2019-07-08", 0.346], ["2019-07-13", 0.345], ["2019-07-13", 0.343], ["2019-07-14", 0.343], ["2019-07-20", 0.353], ["2019-07-22", 0.354], ["2019-07-22", 0.354], ["2019-07-23", 0.353], ["2019-07-26", 0.35], ["2019-07-27", 0.35], ["2019-07-27", 0.351], ["2019-07-29", 0.347], ["2019-07-29", 0.347], ["2019-07-30", 0.347], ["2019-07-31", 0.346], ["2019-07-31", 0.345], ["2019-07-31", 0.332], ["2019-08-01", 0.333], ["2019-08-01", 0.333]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1597/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the "fear gauge". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.
To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. At present, the VIX stands just above 21, so very roughly speaking, this means that the market ascribes a 30% chance that stocks will have changed in price by more than 6% by late December 2018.
Typically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the VIX briefly reached values above 80. This year, the VIX maxed out at 50.3 on February 6th, the day after the largest point-drop in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
During the calendar year 2019, will the VIX Index have an intra-day print with a value above 50? | true | 2019-08-01 | Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-02-13 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Vulcan_launches"] | binary | [["2018-02-17", 0.05], ["2018-02-20", 0.221], ["2018-02-22", 0.221], ["2018-02-24", 0.225], ["2018-02-27", 0.224], ["2018-03-02", 0.221], ["2018-03-12", 0.221], ["2018-03-12", 0.227], ["2018-03-17", 0.224], ["2018-03-22", 0.224], ["2018-03-25", 0.205], ["2018-03-27", 0.206], ["2018-04-01", 0.199], ["2018-04-05", 0.195], ["2018-04-08", 0.195], ["2018-04-08", 0.195], ["2018-04-16", 0.199], ["2018-04-18", 0.198], ["2018-04-21", 0.198], ["2018-04-24", 0.198], ["2018-04-27", 0.209], ["2018-04-30", 0.206], ["2018-05-07", 0.206], ["2018-05-09", 0.212], ["2018-05-12", 0.222], ["2018-05-15", 0.222], ["2018-05-18", 0.22], ["2018-05-19", 0.22], ["2018-05-22", 0.224], ["2018-05-24", 0.223], ["2018-05-27", 0.226], ["2018-05-30", 0.226], ["2018-06-03", 0.225], ["2018-06-06", 0.225], ["2018-06-06", 0.226], ["2018-06-12", 0.224], ["2018-06-24", 0.224], ["2018-06-26", 0.224], ["2018-06-29", 0.22], ["2018-07-05", 0.218], ["2018-07-10", 0.218], ["2018-07-11", 0.22], ["2018-07-22", 0.22], ["2018-07-22", 0.222], ["2018-07-28", 0.221], ["2018-07-31", 0.222], ["2018-08-01", 0.226], ["2018-08-09", 0.224], ["2018-08-10", 0.231], ["2018-08-18", 0.231], ["2018-08-19", 0.233], ["2018-09-06", 0.234], ["2018-09-09", 0.234], ["2018-09-11", 0.237], ["2018-09-13", 0.243], ["2018-09-17", 0.247], ["2018-09-19", 0.249], ["2018-09-24", 0.245], ["2018-09-27", 0.249], ["2018-09-28", 0.251], ["2018-10-04", 0.251], ["2018-10-08", 0.252], ["2018-10-16", 0.252], ["2018-10-23", 0.254], ["2018-11-03", 0.254], ["2018-11-09", 0.254], ["2018-11-09", 0.262], ["2018-11-14", 0.266], ["2018-11-17", 0.266], ["2018-11-19", 0.267], ["2018-12-06", 0.267], ["2018-12-07", 0.267], ["2018-12-13", 0.269], ["2018-12-18", 0.27], ["2018-12-21", 0.277], ["2018-12-26", 0.277], ["2019-01-01", 0.278], ["2019-01-07", 0.278], ["2019-01-12", 0.279], ["2019-01-16", 0.279], ["2019-01-17", 0.282], ["2019-01-21", 0.28], ["2019-01-22", 0.279], ["2019-01-26", 0.279], ["2019-01-29", 0.279], ["2019-02-11", 0.279], ["2019-02-26", 0.278], ["2019-03-01", 0.279], ["2019-03-09", 0.28], ["2019-03-16", 0.277], ["2019-03-23", 0.277], ["2019-04-07", 0.278], ["2019-04-09", 0.278], ["2019-04-11", 0.277], ["2019-04-14", 0.275], ["2019-04-16", 0.275], ["2019-04-23", 0.273], ["2019-04-26", 0.272], ["2019-04-27", 0.271], ["2019-04-30", 0.267], ["2019-05-01", 0.266]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/645/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with on twitter, upon the suggestion that United Launch Alliance (ULA)'s upcoming "Vulcan" rocket would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:
Maybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.
This taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.
We'll play along, and ask:
By Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that "Vulcan" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security?
For positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and "National Security" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.
In case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat. | true | 2019-05-01 | Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?) | metaculus | 0 |
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The Dragon V2, SpaceX's first crewed spacecraft, is still in development and an uncrewed test-flight is scheduled for August 2018; the first manned flight is planned for December. There was also is a plan for SpaceX to fly two private individuals around the moon in late 2018, yet it seems that this could only occur after the first crewed test flight of Dragon V2, whatever its date ends up being, and it will probably be the "BFR" that does such flights instead.
The first crewed flight will be a decisive moment in SpaceX's history. Should the launch succeed it would be a major step forward, yet if it should fail, killing the crew, it would be a much larger, and potentially lethal, step backwards for the company.
It is asked:Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2019 at 00:00 UTC?
Should the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. Safe return/survival of the crew is not required for positive resolution. | true | 2018-07-21 | Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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Even if SpaceX's first crewed flight is delayed by one or two years, that will probably not have all to great an impact on the company's chance of surviving and achieving its long-term goal of building a city on Mars. The death of a crew member in a test flight on the other hand would have a much more devastating effect and may lead to the de facto shutdown of SpaceX.
Therefore, it is asked:Will SpaceX's first crewed flight (presumably a test flight for Dragon V2) lead to the death of a crew member?
Resolution time has been set to January 1st 2020. It is hoped the first flight will have taken place by then and hopefully the question can be resolved even earlier, should the test take place in 2018. Should SpaceX not attempt to launch anybody into space by 2025, the question shall resolve ambiguous. | true | 2019-07-21 | Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member? | metaculus | 0 |
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It is simply asked:
Will, within the year 2018, a company that is part of the S&P 500 index close at a stock price that would make its market cap larger that 1 trillion US dollars?
Though the data source is unlikely to matter, resolution is by listed market cap in Google finance. | true | 2018-04-01 | A Trillion Dollar company by the end of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
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Digiconomist has done a good job tracking the approximate energy consumption of the Bitcoin blockchain. As of the writing of this question the annualized rate of energy consumption of Bitcoin is nearly 50 TWh/yr and a single bitcoin transaction requires an amount of energy that could power an average American home for over 3 weeks and emits over a third of a ton of CO2.
Digiconomist also projects further increases in energy consumption, which would have energy consumption doubling before 2019.
It is asked:Will Digiconomist's estimate of Bitcoin's energy consumption reach 100 TWh/yr prior to 2019?
This question resolves positive if the value reported by Digiconomist for 'Bitcoin's current estimated annual electricity consumption' is reported as over 100 TWh/yr for at least one day prior to January 1st 2019. There are daily updates, so this one should be quite easy to check. | true | 2018-04-01 | Will Bitcoin's energy consumption double again? | metaculus | 0 |
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However, there is something of a regulatory cloud of uncertainty hanging over the ICO industry. How cryptocurrencies in general are viewed by various government agencies vary widely among countries. The ICO issue particularly concerns securities regulators such as the US Security and Exchange Commission (SEC.) So far, the SEC has issued statements cautioning against investment in ICOs, and gone after a few particularly egregious coin offering schemes, but not given clear guidance as to how an ICO should be run so as to be compliant with securities law. Will it?
With the SEC release any set of public, formal rules governing initial coin offerings by October 1, 2018?
Resolution is positive if the SEC makes public on sec.gov a document setting out written rules specifically pertaining to cryptocurrency ICOs, addressing issues including what sorts of coin offerings constitute securities, that are arguably actionable in guiding companies undertaking ICOs as to what is likely or unlikely to be permissible under what circumstances.
As there are several types (proposed, final, interim final, etc.) of rules the SEC can release, we'll require just that they appear on the SEC rulemaking index, which contains all of these, with a listed date prior to Oct. 1 2018. | true | 2018-07-01 | Will the SEC release new rules governing ICOs by October 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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By keeping their engineering teams and supply chain local to India and taking advantage of inexpensive labor and supplies, India has launched successful missions to the Moon and Mars at a small fraction of the cost of US launches by NASA, at least as computed in dollars (with no purchasing-price-parity adjustment applied.)
Their next mission, Chandrayaan-2 is a landing on the Moon, slated for April. Per Wikipedia,
Chandrayaan 2 is scheduled to launch in April 2018 and will attempt to soft land a lander and rover in a high plain between two craters, Manzinus C and Simpelius N, at a latitude of about 70° south. If successful, Chandrayaan-2 will be the first-ever mission to land a rover near the lunar south pole.
The mission will be carried by the GSLV2 system; this rocket has made its last four launched successfully, though there is a mixed record before that (including a GSLV1).
This lunar mission is not just interesting as a (potential) triumph of Indian engineering, but also at some level on the world spacecraft stage, as the mission is coming in at a cost of apparently $165M total; this probably makes it competitive even with SpaceX's re-used rockets.
Will it succeed?
Resolution is positive if a spacecraft launched by India lands on the Moon by August 1, 2018 (giving some room for delays). The lander and rover need not be operational upon landing, and can even crash: we require just that something of 10 kg or more make it onto the surface. | true | 2018-03-30 | Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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As a result, autonomous systems may end up being able, at least, to emulate many of the private-law rights of legal persons. This essay demonstrates a technique by which this is possible by means of limited liability companies (LLCs), a very flexible modern type of business organizations.
A more recent paper appearing on SSRN agrees with this argument, and suggest that the law may also allow non-human (i.e. algorithmic) ownership of some other corporate structures. It also argues that this could be majorly problematic in various ways. | Economics & Business | By 2021 will there be a case filed in a US court addressing a US LLC and alleging that the LLC is not managed by a human?
For positive resolution it must be possible to access the case docket on some major legal database, and it should be arguable that the judgement in the case could impact the legality of having a non-human run an LLC or other type of corporation. | true | 2018-10-01 | By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation? | metaculus | 0 |
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The Economist concurs: the publication has been charting Google searches for “flat Earth” terms, and it’s found that they’re increasingly popular.
At the same time, prominent U.S. politicians on both sides of the aisle have been accused of embracing fringe ideas.
How long will it take before a nominated Democratic or Republican candidate embraces Flat-Eartherism publicly?
For a positive result, an “out” Flat-Earther must be officially nominated by the Democratic or Republican party for statewide or national office by the end of 2020. (In case of any ambiguity the nominee must appear on the appropriate state's election ballot under one of the two major parties' names, running for a statewide or national office.) The "out" portion will be determined by credible media report that the candidate can be reasonably interpreted as confirming their belief in speech or writing.
(edit 3/5/18 to clarify that the party need only be a candidate, not necessarily elected.)
(edit 7/4/18 to clarify in the 'statewide' case the candidate must be voted by the whole state at once, i.e. state legislators are not included.) | true | 2018-11-06 | By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther? | metaculus | 0 |
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This massive change correlated with an explosion of twin epidemics of obesity and type 2 diabetes.
Critics of these guidelines, such as journalists Gary Taubes and Nina Teicholz, have argued that the widespread adoption of a low fat, high carb diet fueled this “diabesity” epidemic.
Nevertheless, the 3 promoted “Dietary Patterns” in the 2015 U.S. Dietary Guidelines were all low fat, high carbohydrate.
There has been a small, but growing insurgency among a minority of doctors and nutritionists, who counsel alternative eating patterns, claiming they’re healthier than the official guidelines.
Will health authorities finally change their tune 40 years after getting behind a low fat, high carb diet?
A positive result would be the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines officially recommending as one of its dietary eating patterns (or some equivalent term) a diet composed of 30% or less calories from carbohydrates. The 30% figure can be per the guidelines themselves or analysis by another credible source of one of the recommended dietary patterns. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option? | metaculus | 0 |
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But WFIRST is in trouble.
The Trump administration proposed a budget for Fiscal Year 2019 that would cancel the observatory, which (for technical reasons) would have required an increase in funding.
Prominent science journalist, Ethan Siegel (“Starts with a Bang”) has argued that this move would “permanently ruin NASA.” He writes “If WFIRST gets cancelled, it's a sign that even the most important NASA project, as determined by internal, external, and independent reviewers, is subject to political whims.”
Will WFIRST survive this attack?
For a positive resolution WFIRST must still be funded through 2019 at a level compatible with the mission's continuation, as of the 2018 midterm elections, via whatever budget is in place at that time. Resolution is negative if a budget passes in which WFIRST's 2019 funding is cut by more than 50% from the level requested by NASA as of early 2018 for the mission. | true | 2018-05-01 | Will NASA’s WFIRST still be funded as of the 2018 mid-term elections? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-05 | 2018-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-27", 0.83], ["2018-02-27", 0.83], ["2018-02-27", 0.434], ["2018-02-28", 0.405], ["2018-02-28", 0.416], ["2018-02-28", 0.372], ["2018-02-28", 0.386], ["2018-02-28", 0.368], ["2018-03-01", 0.347], ["2018-03-02", 0.334], ["2018-03-02", 0.366], ["2018-03-02", 0.369], ["2018-03-02", 0.366], ["2018-03-03", 0.37], ["2018-03-03", 0.371], ["2018-03-04", 0.372], ["2018-03-04", 0.384], ["2018-03-04", 0.362], ["2018-03-05", 0.364], ["2018-03-05", 0.364], ["2018-03-05", 0.364], ["2018-03-06", 0.368], ["2018-03-06", 0.368], ["2018-03-07", 0.37], ["2018-03-08", 0.377], ["2018-03-09", 0.364], ["2018-03-10", 0.375], ["2018-03-10", 0.375], ["2018-03-12", 0.375], ["2018-03-12", 0.364], ["2018-03-12", 0.374], ["2018-03-12", 0.374], ["2018-03-15", 0.372], ["2018-03-19", 0.372], ["2018-03-21", 0.369], ["2018-03-23", 0.364], ["2018-03-23", 0.364], ["2018-03-23", 0.355], ["2018-03-28", 0.344], ["2018-03-30", 0.341], ["2018-03-30", 0.338], ["2018-03-31", 0.342], ["2018-04-04", 0.338], ["2018-04-05", 0.338], ["2018-04-05", 0.349], ["2018-04-07", 0.349], ["2018-04-07", 0.351], ["2018-04-07", 0.344], ["2018-04-08", 0.344], ["2018-04-08", 0.339], ["2018-04-09", 0.335], ["2018-04-09", 0.338], ["2018-04-09", 0.338], ["2018-04-09", 0.342], ["2018-04-10", 0.344], ["2018-04-10", 0.355], ["2018-04-10", 0.353], ["2018-04-11", 0.354], ["2018-04-11", 0.355], ["2018-04-11", 0.355], ["2018-04-13", 0.355], ["2018-04-13", 0.35], ["2018-04-16", 0.344], ["2018-04-17", 0.34], ["2018-04-17", 0.345], ["2018-04-18", 0.341], ["2018-04-18", 0.347], ["2018-04-18", 0.347], ["2018-04-18", 0.348], ["2018-04-19", 0.346], ["2018-04-20", 0.345], ["2018-04-21", 0.343], ["2018-04-30", 0.343], ["2018-05-05", 0.343], ["2018-05-05", 0.343], ["2018-05-10", 0.341], ["2018-05-14", 0.341], ["2018-05-15", 0.35], ["2018-05-15", 0.349], ["2018-05-16", 0.349], ["2018-05-16", 0.344], ["2018-05-19", 0.344], ["2018-05-20", 0.341], ["2018-05-20", 0.341], ["2018-05-23", 0.335], ["2018-05-23", 0.333], ["2018-05-25", 0.334], ["2018-05-26", 0.332], ["2018-05-26", 0.332], ["2018-05-26", 0.338], ["2018-05-26", 0.338], ["2018-05-27", 0.338], ["2018-05-27", 0.338], ["2018-05-27", 0.337], ["2018-05-30", 0.337], ["2018-05-31", 0.339], ["2018-05-31", 0.341], ["2018-05-31", 0.343], ["2018-05-31", 0.343], ["2018-05-31", 0.345], ["2018-06-01", 0.345]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/663/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | For decades, tech enthusiasts have hoped that breakthroughs in quantum computing would allow us to do wonderful things, such as:
“[disrupt the] financial, pharmaceutical, and security industries”
“transform our machine learning and artificial intelligence capabilities”
(“hugely reduce the time and cost of… calculations [that predict the properties of pharmaceutical drugs]”
One of the first steps to this bright future is the achievement of what’s known as quantum supremacy—the creation of a quantum computer capable of solving problems that a classic computer cannot.
But skeptics like Phillip Ball and mathematician Gil Kalai now argue that large scale quantum computing projects will always be hampered by irreducible noise in the system.
Kalai recently explained his argument in an interview with Quanta Magazine: “[the results of an experiment performed by Kalai and colleagues] shows that the noise level [in a quantum computer] cannot be reduced, because doing so will contradict an insight from the theory of computing about the power of primitive computational devices. Noisy quantum computers in the small and intermediate scale deliver primitive computational power. They are too primitive to reach “quantum supremacy” — and if quantum supremacy is not possible, then creating quantum error-correcting codes, which is harder, is also impossible.”
Will quantum supremacy be achieved by 2025, rather than proving elusive for years to come if not indefinitely?
The question resolves positively if quantum supremacy has been demonstrated by 2025. Precisely defining quantum supremacy is itself somewhat tricky. We will thus use a working definition that John Preskill, inventor of the term, makes public declarations to the effect that it has been definitively shown. | true | 2018-06-01 | Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-05-23 | 2018-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-02-27", 0.8], ["2018-03-02", 0.704], ["2018-03-06", 0.657], ["2018-03-08", 0.65], ["2018-03-12", 0.68], ["2018-03-16", 0.68], ["2018-03-19", 0.672], ["2018-03-22", 0.683], ["2018-03-26", 0.685], ["2018-03-29", 0.685], ["2018-04-01", 0.696], ["2018-04-05", 0.696], ["2018-04-08", 0.697], ["2018-04-14", 0.7], ["2018-04-18", 0.71], ["2018-04-21", 0.715], ["2018-04-24", 0.719], ["2018-04-28", 0.72], ["2018-05-05", 0.72], ["2018-05-07", 0.723], ["2018-05-14", 0.721], ["2018-05-18", 0.725], ["2018-05-24", 0.725], ["2018-05-31", 0.725], ["2018-06-03", 0.721], ["2018-06-06", 0.721], ["2018-06-14", 0.722], ["2018-06-17", 0.722], ["2018-06-29", 0.722], ["2018-07-02", 0.726], ["2018-07-05", 0.72], ["2018-07-09", 0.714], ["2018-07-13", 0.716], ["2018-07-19", 0.716], ["2018-07-21", 0.716], ["2018-07-26", 0.717], ["2018-07-29", 0.718], ["2018-08-02", 0.719], ["2018-08-06", 0.709], ["2018-08-08", 0.711], ["2018-08-13", 0.719], ["2018-08-18", 0.717], ["2018-08-22", 0.717], ["2018-08-30", 0.716], ["2018-09-06", 0.713], ["2018-09-10", 0.705], ["2018-09-13", 0.703], ["2018-09-17", 0.702], ["2018-09-19", 0.697], ["2018-09-24", 0.695], ["2018-09-27", 0.696], ["2018-10-04", 0.694], ["2018-10-07", 0.694], ["2018-10-10", 0.694], ["2018-10-14", 0.68], ["2018-10-16", 0.681], ["2018-10-25", 0.683], ["2018-10-29", 0.682], ["2018-11-02", 0.686], ["2018-11-05", 0.687], ["2018-11-09", 0.69], ["2018-11-12", 0.691], ["2018-11-16", 0.692], ["2018-11-27", 0.692], ["2018-11-29", 0.693], ["2018-12-02", 0.695], ["2018-12-05", 0.696], ["2018-12-08", 0.697], ["2018-12-14", 0.7], ["2018-12-19", 0.699], ["2019-01-01", 0.699], ["2019-01-03", 0.696], ["2019-01-17", 0.696], ["2019-01-24", 0.696], ["2019-01-31", 0.696], ["2019-02-08", 0.697], ["2019-02-13", 0.705], ["2019-02-28", 0.705], ["2019-03-06", 0.706], ["2019-03-07", 0.71], ["2019-03-11", 0.711], ["2019-03-13", 0.712], ["2019-03-18", 0.712], ["2019-03-22", 0.713], ["2019-03-25", 0.715], ["2019-03-29", 0.715], ["2019-03-31", 0.718], ["2019-04-06", 0.718], ["2019-04-09", 0.729], ["2019-04-13", 0.732], ["2019-04-17", 0.732], ["2019-04-19", 0.735], ["2019-04-23", 0.737], ["2019-04-28", 0.731], ["2019-04-30", 0.731], ["2019-05-03", 0.732], ["2019-05-08", 0.732], ["2019-05-12", 0.749], ["2019-05-17", 0.761], ["2019-05-22", 0.769], ["2019-05-22", 0.77]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/664/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In November 2016, SpaceX filed an application with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a license to use portions of telecommunications frequencies to communicate with a network of satellites that would bring internet coverage to every point on the planet, no matter how remote. Named Starlink (thankfully not called "Skynet"), this network would provide speeds of up to one gigabit per second (Gbps). Each satellite would have a total throughput of about 20 Gbps, utilizing a 2 GHz frequency band in the 11-15 GHz range.
But the most ambitious aspect of SpaceX's plan is the number of satellites they plan to launch: 4,425 satellites, with a potential for 7,518 satellites in orbital planes even closer to the ground. Only 1,500 satellites currently orbit Earth.
On Feb. 22, 2018 SpaceX launched two test satellites, Tintin-1 and Tintin 2, which appear to share many of the characteristics of the satellites that the plan would eventually deploy.
But will Starlink actually happen? And when? A full system as described could cost tens of billions of dollars total, and it is unclear whether the financing is in place. And there are competitive efforts by the OneWeb satellite constellation, a major Samsung effort and others. We'll ask:
By 2021, will at least ten Starlink satellites have been launched and be in orbit?
This can include the Tintins, and is aimed at whether "production level" satellites are starting to be put aloft. | true | 2019-06-01 | Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-04-17 | 2018-02-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-02", 0.32], ["2018-03-02", 0.655], ["2018-03-02", 0.51], ["2018-03-02", 0.468], ["2018-03-03", 0.468], ["2018-03-03", 0.47], ["2018-03-03", 0.474], ["2018-03-03", 0.474], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.48], ["2018-03-04", 0.47], ["2018-03-05", 0.473], ["2018-03-05", 0.455], ["2018-03-06", 0.455], ["2018-03-06", 0.448], ["2018-03-06", 0.441], ["2018-03-07", 0.445], ["2018-03-08", 0.445], ["2018-03-08", 0.452], ["2018-03-11", 0.435], ["2018-03-12", 0.439], ["2018-03-12", 0.434], ["2018-03-13", 0.434], ["2018-03-14", 0.434], ["2018-03-15", 0.432], ["2018-03-16", 0.432], ["2018-03-16", 0.435], ["2018-03-16", 0.443], ["2018-03-17", 0.445], ["2018-03-17", 0.447], ["2018-03-21", 0.448], ["2018-03-25", 0.458], ["2018-03-26", 0.452], ["2018-03-26", 0.453], ["2018-03-27", 0.453], ["2018-03-27", 0.452], ["2018-03-28", 0.452], ["2018-03-28", 0.451], ["2018-03-28", 0.444], ["2018-03-29", 0.441], ["2018-03-29", 0.441], ["2018-03-29", 0.441], ["2018-03-29", 0.444], ["2018-03-29", 0.441], ["2018-03-29", 0.443], ["2018-03-29", 0.444], ["2018-03-30", 0.457], ["2018-03-30", 0.454], ["2018-03-30", 0.455], ["2018-03-31", 0.456], ["2018-04-01", 0.457], ["2018-04-02", 0.458], ["2018-04-02", 0.458], ["2018-04-03", 0.458], ["2018-04-03", 0.458], ["2018-04-04", 0.456], ["2018-04-05", 0.457], ["2018-04-05", 0.458], ["2018-04-05", 0.458], ["2018-04-05", 0.458], ["2018-04-06", 0.455], ["2018-04-06", 0.454], ["2018-04-07", 0.455], ["2018-04-07", 0.459], ["2018-04-07", 0.459], ["2018-04-07", 0.459], ["2018-04-07", 0.459], ["2018-04-07", 0.459], ["2018-04-07", 0.46], ["2018-04-07", 0.461], ["2018-04-08", 0.461], ["2018-04-08", 0.462], ["2018-04-08", 0.462], ["2018-04-08", 0.462], ["2018-04-09", 0.461], ["2018-04-09", 0.461], ["2018-04-09", 0.461], ["2018-04-09", 0.463], ["2018-04-10", 0.463], ["2018-04-10", 0.462], ["2018-04-10", 0.462], ["2018-04-10", 0.462], ["2018-04-11", 0.462], ["2018-04-11", 0.462], ["2018-04-11", 0.459], ["2018-04-12", 0.459], ["2018-04-12", 0.458], ["2018-04-12", 0.458], ["2018-04-12", 0.459], ["2018-04-13", 0.459], ["2018-04-13", 0.459], ["2018-04-13", 0.459], ["2018-04-13", 0.457], ["2018-04-14", 0.457], ["2018-04-14", 0.451], ["2018-04-14", 0.453], ["2018-04-14", 0.45], ["2018-04-14", 0.45], ["2018-04-14", 0.453]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/666/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | Disclaimer: This question is a bit experimental, but might be quite interesting.
One of the most interesting things you notice when predicting on Metaculus is that any arbitrary event a priori is less likely to happen than not and less likely to happen than most people think (this is why the Metaculus prediction tends to calibrate down). An event is defined here as something you would ask to happen, rather than not happen, for a positive resolution to a question.
It would be interesting to determine a general value for the a priori probability of an event happening as defined above. This value could allow us to estimate the probability of events for which there is little evidence for or against. For example, the probability that God exists has been estimated to be 67%, yet the problem is that the a priori was taken to be 50%. There is no reason to assume this.
The only way to determine an a priori probability for a question resolving positive would be to remove anything question specific from the question: to not tell people what the question is. This is what we are going to do. A question has been set for the resolution of this question, but it is known only to me and the Metaculus admin. Obviously, those who know the question should not predict on this question.
It is asked:
Will this question, with its secret resolution criteria, resolve positive?
To wet your appetite I'm going to outline a few possible considerations one might take when answering this question. Of course, there are many others.
One could sample from the Metaculus track record. 55/208=26.4% of questions resolved positive (at least according to my counting).
Yet, Metaculus also has a technology heavy question stack and there is a separate effect to the general overestimation of probabilities, which is the general overestimation of technological progress in our time, that might be influencing this figure. Note that no category has been selected for this question, as it is not given in which category it is. It may, or may not, have anything to do with technology. It might even be in a completely new category.
Also, only short-term questions have resolved. What would be the a priori for more long-term questions? I could have picked a question we already know the answer to, which would have been a very long-term question long ago, for resolution. Or I could not have. You just don't know.
Also, this question will resolve in 2018 and in 2018 (up to now) we have had even more negative resolutions than usual. | true | 2018-04-15 | Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-07 | 2018-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-02", 0.01], ["2018-03-02", 0.01], ["2018-03-02", 0.1], ["2018-03-03", 0.234], ["2018-03-03", 0.252], ["2018-03-04", 0.245], ["2018-03-04", 0.245], ["2018-03-04", 0.259], ["2018-03-04", 0.291], ["2018-03-06", 0.291], ["2018-03-07", 0.295], ["2018-03-07", 0.288], ["2018-03-07", 0.263], ["2018-03-08", 0.252], ["2018-03-11", 0.283], ["2018-03-11", 0.283], ["2018-03-12", 0.306], ["2018-03-12", 0.316], ["2018-03-12", 0.32], ["2018-03-14", 0.32], ["2018-03-14", 0.321], ["2018-03-15", 0.325], ["2018-03-16", 0.333], ["2018-03-16", 0.333], ["2018-03-21", 0.336], ["2018-03-22", 0.336], ["2018-03-22", 0.345], ["2018-03-22", 0.345], ["2018-03-22", 0.345], ["2018-03-23", 0.345], ["2018-03-24", 0.345], ["2018-03-25", 0.356], ["2018-03-26", 0.358], ["2018-03-27", 0.363], ["2018-03-27", 0.364], ["2018-03-27", 0.353], ["2018-03-28", 0.361], ["2018-03-28", 0.369], ["2018-03-29", 0.37], ["2018-03-30", 0.37], ["2018-03-30", 0.375], ["2018-03-31", 0.375], ["2018-04-02", 0.373], ["2018-04-02", 0.373], ["2018-04-02", 0.38], ["2018-04-03", 0.383], ["2018-04-03", 0.383], ["2018-04-04", 0.383], ["2018-04-04", 0.387], ["2018-04-05", 0.385], ["2018-04-06", 0.389], ["2018-04-08", 0.391], ["2018-04-08", 0.393], ["2018-04-09", 0.391], ["2018-04-10", 0.391], ["2018-04-11", 0.391], ["2018-04-11", 0.391], ["2018-04-14", 0.392], ["2018-04-15", 0.388], ["2018-04-17", 0.388], ["2018-04-18", 0.389], ["2018-04-19", 0.389], ["2018-04-19", 0.389], ["2018-04-20", 0.39], ["2018-04-20", 0.446], ["2018-04-21", 0.455], ["2018-04-21", 0.475], ["2018-04-21", 0.478], ["2018-04-22", 0.485], ["2018-04-23", 0.485], ["2018-04-24", 0.497], ["2018-04-24", 0.504], ["2018-04-25", 0.504], ["2018-04-26", 0.51], ["2018-04-26", 0.512], ["2018-04-26", 0.514], ["2018-04-27", 0.517], ["2018-04-27", 0.517], ["2018-04-29", 0.517], ["2018-04-30", 0.518], ["2018-04-30", 0.526], ["2018-04-30", 0.526], ["2018-05-02", 0.526], ["2018-05-03", 0.526], ["2018-05-04", 0.53], ["2018-05-05", 0.532], ["2018-05-08", 0.535], ["2018-05-08", 0.536], ["2018-05-09", 0.536], ["2018-05-10", 0.54], ["2018-05-10", 0.541], ["2018-05-10", 0.538], ["2018-05-11", 0.54], ["2018-05-11", 0.544], ["2018-05-11", 0.544], ["2018-05-12", 0.544], ["2018-05-13", 0.543], ["2018-05-14", 0.547], ["2018-05-14", 0.553], ["2018-05-14", 0.552], ["2018-05-15", 0.551]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/667/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | (note: experimental question)
Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but the proportion is rapidly rising.
However, cryptocurrencies hit a bit of a wall in mid-December 2017 and have been declining or stable between then and late February. Along with participation, utility, and investment, it's clear that a significant component of coin purchasing is speculation that the coins will increase in value because...there is speculation that the coins will increase in value because...
So one might imagine that in a flat or declining coin market ICOs are going to have a tough time. The question one would like to answer if one were contemplating an ICO would be something like:
On May 1 will the ICO space still be growing in overall size, and stable in success likelihood?
(Here, "success likelihood" is something like expectation value of capital raised for a fixed quality of project.)
The attentive Metaculus user will note that this question is far less specific and well-posed than usual. This is by intent. The question will be resolved in the following manner. The question will remain open until its resolution time. Then:
If at the resolution time the community prediction probability is < 10% or > 90%, the question will resolve negatively or positively, respectively.
Otherwise, it will be resolved by the personal, unquestioned discretion of the question's author.
The intent (along with crypto-insight) is to experiment with a new idea about consensus question resolution, in which a question might close (differently from this one), but remain open for predictions about the resolution. This might either be neat, or perhaps create in infinite unstable meta-regress; we'll see and experiment. | true | 2018-05-15 | Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-28 | 2018-03-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-05", 0.48], ["2018-03-08", 0.642], ["2018-03-09", 0.641], ["2018-03-11", 0.647], ["2018-03-13", 0.646], ["2018-03-16", 0.663], ["2018-03-17", 0.658], ["2018-03-19", 0.658], ["2018-03-22", 0.658], ["2018-03-23", 0.664], ["2018-03-25", 0.658], ["2018-03-26", 0.653], ["2018-03-27", 0.651], ["2018-03-29", 0.653], ["2018-03-31", 0.661], ["2018-04-02", 0.659], ["2018-04-03", 0.66], ["2018-04-05", 0.662], ["2018-04-07", 0.669], ["2018-04-10", 0.667], ["2018-04-11", 0.67], ["2018-04-16", 0.67], ["2018-04-17", 0.66], ["2018-04-22", 0.659], ["2018-04-29", 0.658], ["2018-04-30", 0.656], ["2018-05-03", 0.655], ["2018-05-05", 0.652], ["2018-05-10", 0.651], ["2018-05-12", 0.658], ["2018-05-14", 0.658], ["2018-05-15", 0.66], ["2018-05-18", 0.665], ["2018-05-20", 0.668], ["2018-05-22", 0.681], ["2018-05-23", 0.687], ["2018-05-25", 0.681], ["2018-05-27", 0.683], ["2018-05-29", 0.696], ["2018-06-01", 0.699], ["2018-06-02", 0.697], ["2018-06-04", 0.707], ["2018-06-05", 0.713], ["2018-06-07", 0.716], ["2018-06-09", 0.718], ["2018-06-11", 0.717], ["2018-06-13", 0.717], ["2018-06-15", 0.716], ["2018-06-18", 0.718], ["2018-06-21", 0.717], ["2018-06-24", 0.717], ["2018-06-26", 0.718], ["2018-06-29", 0.72], ["2018-07-01", 0.72], ["2018-07-06", 0.721], ["2018-07-08", 0.72], ["2018-07-11", 0.723], ["2018-07-12", 0.72], ["2018-07-15", 0.72], ["2018-07-17", 0.72], ["2018-07-20", 0.72], ["2018-07-21", 0.719], ["2018-07-23", 0.719], ["2018-07-26", 0.718], ["2018-07-28", 0.717], ["2018-07-30", 0.719], ["2018-08-02", 0.719], ["2018-08-02", 0.72], ["2018-08-06", 0.72], ["2018-08-06", 0.72], ["2018-08-09", 0.719], ["2018-08-10", 0.715], ["2018-08-12", 0.714], ["2018-08-14", 0.714], ["2018-08-17", 0.709], ["2018-08-23", 0.709], ["2018-08-25", 0.705], ["2018-08-28", 0.706], ["2018-08-30", 0.705], ["2018-09-02", 0.705], ["2018-09-03", 0.705], ["2018-09-06", 0.705], ["2018-09-09", 0.707], ["2018-09-11", 0.706], ["2018-09-14", 0.702], ["2018-09-16", 0.702], ["2018-09-18", 0.702], ["2018-09-27", 0.702], ["2018-10-01", 0.701], ["2018-10-02", 0.701], ["2018-10-05", 0.699], ["2018-10-07", 0.7], ["2018-10-12", 0.696], ["2018-10-15", 0.697], ["2018-10-16", 0.698], ["2018-10-19", 0.698], ["2018-10-22", 0.697], ["2018-10-24", 0.694], ["2018-10-26", 0.694], ["2018-10-29", 0.694], ["2018-10-30", 0.698]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/670/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | 27 year old chess prodigy, Magnus Carlsen, has dominated top level tournament chess over the past several years. Notably, he's also racked up amazing results in blitz, defeating American Hikaru Nakamura in Chess.com's 2017-2018 blitz tournament as well as in February's FischerRandom test.
In November 2018, though, Magnus will have to defend his crown against a hungry field including grandmasters like Sergei Karjakin, Wesley So and Caruana Fabiano.
Will he win the match and keep the title? | true | 2018-10-31 | Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-19 | 2018-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-06", 0.33], ["2018-03-10", 0.286], ["2018-03-14", 0.325], ["2018-03-16", 0.331], ["2018-03-22", 0.316], ["2018-03-25", 0.315], ["2018-03-30", 0.315], ["2018-04-05", 0.32], ["2018-04-08", 0.326], ["2018-04-20", 0.322], ["2018-04-21", 0.321], ["2018-04-26", 0.316], ["2018-04-28", 0.314], ["2018-05-01", 0.328], ["2018-05-06", 0.334], ["2018-05-08", 0.347], ["2018-05-11", 0.347], ["2018-05-14", 0.358], ["2018-05-16", 0.353], ["2018-05-20", 0.372], ["2018-05-22", 0.372], ["2018-05-26", 0.372], ["2018-05-28", 0.375], ["2018-05-31", 0.373], ["2018-06-02", 0.376], ["2018-06-06", 0.377], ["2018-06-14", 0.377], ["2018-06-24", 0.377], ["2018-06-25", 0.375], ["2018-07-08", 0.381], ["2018-07-12", 0.381], ["2018-07-13", 0.385], ["2018-07-16", 0.385], ["2018-07-31", 0.383], ["2018-08-03", 0.387], ["2018-08-05", 0.396], ["2018-08-07", 0.399], ["2018-08-15", 0.397], ["2018-08-20", 0.397], ["2018-08-23", 0.393], ["2018-08-29", 0.402], ["2018-09-02", 0.398], ["2018-09-05", 0.398], ["2018-09-10", 0.397], ["2018-09-13", 0.397], ["2018-09-14", 0.398], ["2018-09-17", 0.398], ["2018-09-19", 0.398], ["2018-09-26", 0.398], ["2018-09-28", 0.395], ["2018-10-09", 0.395], ["2018-10-12", 0.395], ["2018-10-20", 0.393], ["2018-10-20", 0.397], ["2018-11-09", 0.397], ["2018-11-14", 0.397], ["2018-11-19", 0.398], ["2018-11-23", 0.4], ["2018-11-27", 0.398], ["2018-12-03", 0.398], ["2018-12-12", 0.398], ["2018-12-19", 0.397], ["2018-12-21", 0.396], ["2018-12-26", 0.396], ["2019-01-01", 0.396], ["2019-01-14", 0.393], ["2019-01-16", 0.396], ["2019-01-21", 0.394], ["2019-01-26", 0.394], ["2019-01-29", 0.392], ["2019-01-31", 0.392], ["2019-02-03", 0.392], ["2019-02-09", 0.394], ["2019-02-15", 0.394], ["2019-02-27", 0.393], ["2019-03-22", 0.392], ["2019-03-27", 0.392], ["2019-04-13", 0.393], ["2019-05-29", 0.393], ["2019-06-01", 0.393], ["2019-06-08", 0.393], ["2019-06-15", 0.393], ["2019-06-16", 0.394], ["2019-06-27", 0.395], ["2019-06-29", 0.393], ["2019-07-03", 0.391], ["2019-07-20", 0.388], ["2019-07-25", 0.388], ["2019-07-25", 0.391], ["2019-07-30", 0.39], ["2019-08-02", 0.39], ["2019-08-05", 0.391], ["2019-08-08", 0.39], ["2019-08-11", 0.389], ["2019-08-12", 0.388], ["2019-08-21", 0.389], ["2019-08-29", 0.388], ["2019-09-02", 0.388], ["2019-09-06", 0.388], ["2019-09-10", 0.386], ["2019-09-14", 0.384]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/671/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Materials scientists do some astonishing work. Behold titanium foam, aerogel, a.k.a. "frozen smoke", and multiferroics.
But no material is cooler than tantalum hafnium carbide. To be more precise, no other material currently engineered can stay "cool" (that is, solid) at temperatures approaching 4200 K. For reference, that's about 2/3rds the temperature of the sun's surface!
Can engineers do better, though? Researchers at Brown University say:.
new calculations suggest that an optimal composition of hafnium, nitrogen, and carbon — HfN0.38C0.51 — is a promising candidate to set a new mark.
Will this new material – or some other compound – break (or should we say "melt") the melting point record by 2021?
Result is positive if a paper appears in a trusted, peer reviewed journal confirming the creation of a substance with a higher melting point than 4300 K by 2021. (That's above the record, but below the predicted melting point of HfN0.38C0.51.) | true | 2019-09-15 | Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-08 | 2018-03-05 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-22", 0.575], ["2018-04-24", 0.671], ["2018-04-26", 0.684], ["2018-04-27", 0.669], ["2018-04-28", 0.672], ["2018-04-30", 0.667], ["2018-05-01", 0.658], ["2018-05-03", 0.657], ["2018-05-04", 0.663], ["2018-05-05", 0.668], ["2018-05-07", 0.671], ["2018-05-08", 0.676], ["2018-05-09", 0.676], ["2018-05-11", 0.676], ["2018-05-12", 0.674], ["2018-05-14", 0.675], ["2018-05-16", 0.674], ["2018-05-17", 0.672], ["2018-05-19", 0.672], ["2018-05-21", 0.672], ["2018-05-24", 0.672], ["2018-05-25", 0.669], ["2018-05-27", 0.673], ["2018-05-30", 0.674], ["2018-06-01", 0.671], ["2018-06-03", 0.673], ["2018-06-06", 0.673], ["2018-06-07", 0.672], ["2018-06-12", 0.673], ["2018-06-14", 0.667], ["2018-06-15", 0.663], ["2018-06-24", 0.663], ["2018-07-04", 0.663], ["2018-07-05", 0.663], ["2018-07-06", 0.66], ["2018-07-08", 0.66], ["2018-07-10", 0.657], ["2018-07-12", 0.658], ["2018-07-15", 0.658], ["2018-07-16", 0.649], ["2018-07-18", 0.649], ["2018-07-20", 0.647], ["2018-07-22", 0.648], ["2018-07-23", 0.645], ["2018-07-29", 0.645], ["2018-07-30", 0.646], ["2018-07-31", 0.65], ["2018-08-02", 0.651], ["2018-08-04", 0.651], ["2018-08-06", 0.649], ["2018-08-07", 0.648], ["2018-08-08", 0.65], ["2018-08-12", 0.65], ["2018-08-13", 0.65], ["2018-08-15", 0.65], ["2018-08-17", 0.653], ["2018-08-18", 0.653], ["2018-08-22", 0.654], ["2018-08-24", 0.654], ["2018-08-25", 0.654], ["2018-08-26", 0.655], ["2018-08-29", 0.656], ["2018-09-01", 0.656], ["2018-09-02", 0.658], ["2018-09-04", 0.661], ["2018-09-06", 0.661], ["2018-09-07", 0.662], ["2018-09-10", 0.665], ["2018-09-11", 0.665], ["2018-09-12", 0.668], ["2018-09-14", 0.677], ["2018-09-16", 0.679], ["2018-09-18", 0.678], ["2018-09-20", 0.678], ["2018-09-22", 0.678], ["2018-09-23", 0.679], ["2018-09-26", 0.679], ["2018-09-27", 0.68], ["2018-09-28", 0.68], ["2018-09-30", 0.679], ["2018-10-01", 0.681], ["2018-10-03", 0.682], ["2018-10-05", 0.681], ["2018-10-06", 0.681], ["2018-10-08", 0.681], ["2018-10-09", 0.686], ["2018-10-10", 0.686], ["2018-10-12", 0.688], ["2018-10-15", 0.688], ["2018-10-16", 0.688], ["2018-10-18", 0.689], ["2018-10-19", 0.689], ["2018-10-21", 0.689], ["2018-10-23", 0.688], ["2018-10-24", 0.688], ["2018-10-25", 0.688], ["2018-10-27", 0.688], ["2018-10-29", 0.69], ["2018-10-31", 0.688], ["2018-11-02", 0.692], ["2018-11-05", 0.701]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/672/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In 2016, Republicans controlled the house of representatives with 241 seats versus democrat's 194. No third party candidates won any seats. Republicans have controlled the house since 2010, under the Obama administration. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during their first term, and current polling on a national generic ballot indicates that Democrats have an 6-8 percentage point lead over Republicans.
If Democrats win 218 seats or more in 2018, they will have secured a majority in the house. Will that happen?
435 seats will be contested on November 6th, except for Louisiana, whose general election occurs on December 8th. The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give control to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2019 and elects a Speaker of the House. | true | 2018-11-05 | Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-06-12 | 2018-03-09 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-09", 0.21], ["2018-03-10", 0.581], ["2018-03-10", 0.697], ["2018-03-11", 0.645], ["2018-03-11", 0.646], ["2018-03-12", 0.644], ["2018-03-12", 0.619], ["2018-03-13", 0.608], ["2018-03-14", 0.607], ["2018-03-14", 0.599], ["2018-03-15", 0.609], ["2018-03-15", 0.609], ["2018-03-16", 0.629], ["2018-03-16", 0.644], ["2018-03-17", 0.654], ["2018-03-17", 0.658], ["2018-03-18", 0.654], ["2018-03-18", 0.666], ["2018-03-19", 0.668], ["2018-03-19", 0.666], ["2018-03-20", 0.672], ["2018-03-20", 0.677], ["2018-03-21", 0.682], ["2018-03-21", 0.68], ["2018-03-22", 0.68], ["2018-03-22", 0.68], ["2018-03-23", 0.673], ["2018-03-23", 0.676], ["2018-03-24", 0.678], ["2018-03-24", 0.682], ["2018-03-25", 0.68], ["2018-03-25", 0.673], ["2018-03-26", 0.672], ["2018-03-26", 0.671], ["2018-03-27", 0.671], ["2018-03-27", 0.672], ["2018-03-28", 0.673], ["2018-03-28", 0.675], ["2018-03-29", 0.677], ["2018-03-30", 0.669], ["2018-03-30", 0.665], ["2018-03-31", 0.665], ["2018-03-31", 0.666], ["2018-04-01", 0.669], ["2018-04-02", 0.672], ["2018-04-02", 0.674], ["2018-04-02", 0.676], ["2018-04-03", 0.676], ["2018-04-03", 0.676], ["2018-04-04", 0.676], ["2018-04-05", 0.678], ["2018-04-05", 0.678], ["2018-04-06", 0.678], ["2018-04-06", 0.677], ["2018-04-07", 0.681], ["2018-04-07", 0.683], ["2018-04-08", 0.678], ["2018-04-08", 0.675], ["2018-04-09", 0.675], ["2018-04-09", 0.675], ["2018-04-10", 0.671], ["2018-04-10", 0.671], ["2018-04-11", 0.668], ["2018-04-11", 0.667], ["2018-04-12", 0.669], ["2018-04-12", 0.666], ["2018-04-13", 0.666], ["2018-04-13", 0.666], ["2018-04-14", 0.664], ["2018-04-14", 0.666], ["2018-04-15", 0.665], ["2018-04-15", 0.665], ["2018-04-16", 0.66], ["2018-04-16", 0.66], ["2018-04-17", 0.657], ["2018-04-17", 0.652], ["2018-04-18", 0.651], ["2018-04-18", 0.65], ["2018-04-19", 0.65], ["2018-04-19", 0.65], ["2018-04-20", 0.649], ["2018-04-20", 0.648], ["2018-04-21", 0.65], ["2018-04-21", 0.65], ["2018-04-22", 0.65], ["2018-04-22", 0.648], ["2018-04-23", 0.648], ["2018-04-23", 0.649], ["2018-04-24", 0.647], ["2018-04-25", 0.649], ["2018-04-25", 0.648], ["2018-04-25", 0.649], ["2018-04-26", 0.649], ["2018-04-26", 0.651], ["2018-04-27", 0.651], ["2018-04-27", 0.652], ["2018-04-28", 0.659], ["2018-04-29", 0.664], ["2018-04-29", 0.678], ["2018-04-30", 0.696], ["2018-05-01", 0.703]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/677/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | It was recently announced that Jong Un offered, and Trump accepted the offer, to meet in person.
Will it happen by end of 2018?
Resolution is positive if prior to Jan 1, 2019, Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un come to occupy the same physical space so that they can see and hear each other through direct un-intermediated exchange of photons and sound waves, and negative otherwise. | true | 2018-05-01 | Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-02 | 2018-03-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-20", 0.4], ["2018-03-20", 0.35], ["2018-03-20", 0.38], ["2018-03-21", 0.38], ["2018-03-21", 0.384], ["2018-03-21", 0.398], ["2018-03-21", 0.391], ["2018-03-23", 0.399], ["2018-03-24", 0.399], ["2018-03-25", 0.399], ["2018-03-26", 0.35], ["2018-03-27", 0.35], ["2018-03-27", 0.362], ["2018-03-27", 0.362], ["2018-03-27", 0.356], ["2018-03-27", 0.348], ["2018-03-28", 0.348], ["2018-03-29", 0.353], ["2018-03-30", 0.353], ["2018-04-02", 0.351], ["2018-04-03", 0.354], ["2018-04-03", 0.356], ["2018-04-03", 0.356], ["2018-04-03", 0.368], ["2018-04-03", 0.368], ["2018-04-05", 0.367], ["2018-04-05", 0.368], ["2018-04-08", 0.372], ["2018-04-10", 0.371], ["2018-04-10", 0.374], ["2018-04-11", 0.374], ["2018-04-12", 0.377], ["2018-04-13", 0.376], ["2018-04-15", 0.374], ["2018-04-16", 0.375], ["2018-04-17", 0.375], ["2018-04-17", 0.369], ["2018-04-17", 0.369], ["2018-04-17", 0.368], ["2018-04-17", 0.368], ["2018-04-17", 0.372], ["2018-04-17", 0.378], ["2018-04-21", 0.379], ["2018-04-22", 0.379], ["2018-04-25", 0.376], ["2018-04-25", 0.376], ["2018-04-29", 0.377], ["2018-04-30", 0.377], ["2018-04-30", 0.377], ["2018-04-30", 0.373], ["2018-04-30", 0.363], ["2018-05-01", 0.356]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/687/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | One of the most important projects of the Michel Temer's presidency of Brazil is approving a Social Security Reform.
The reform is unpopular, and according to Forbes "there have been doubts on whether it will be implemented".
It has to be taken in consideration that, in the context of the current federal intervention, that "Under the Constitution, Brazilian lawmakers are barred from making broad legal changes during a military intervention imposed by decree." (here noted by NYT)
The Temer government possibly plans lift up the intervention for the time need to vote the reform.
So the question is:
Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved by the end of 2018 or the end of Temer's presidency (whichever comes first)?
Resolution is positive if a bill reforming Brazilian social security in a way substantively similar to the one currently under consideration passes in the Brazilian lower house and upper house of congress by three fifths of vote. | true | 2018-05-01 | Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-01 | 2018-03-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-30", 0.2], ["2018-03-31", 0.118], ["2018-04-01", 0.134], ["2018-04-02", 0.134], ["2018-04-03", 0.141], ["2018-04-04", 0.135], ["2018-04-05", 0.146], ["2018-04-06", 0.138], ["2018-04-07", 0.138], ["2018-04-08", 0.141], ["2018-04-09", 0.14], ["2018-04-10", 0.134], ["2018-04-12", 0.131], ["2018-04-13", 0.135], ["2018-04-16", 0.139], ["2018-04-17", 0.132], ["2018-04-20", 0.136], ["2018-04-21", 0.135], ["2018-04-24", 0.141], ["2018-04-24", 0.141], ["2018-04-27", 0.143], ["2018-04-29", 0.143], ["2018-04-30", 0.143], ["2018-05-01", 0.141], ["2018-05-03", 0.141], ["2018-05-04", 0.138], ["2018-05-06", 0.141], ["2018-05-10", 0.138], ["2018-05-12", 0.138], ["2018-05-13", 0.136], ["2018-05-14", 0.134], ["2018-05-15", 0.136], ["2018-05-17", 0.135], ["2018-05-17", 0.138], ["2018-05-21", 0.137], ["2018-05-21", 0.136], ["2018-05-24", 0.136], ["2018-05-26", 0.136], ["2018-05-28", 0.136], ["2018-05-30", 0.14], ["2018-06-02", 0.14], ["2018-06-02", 0.14], ["2018-06-06", 0.139], ["2018-06-07", 0.137], ["2018-06-08", 0.137], ["2018-06-10", 0.139], ["2018-06-11", 0.139], ["2018-06-13", 0.139], ["2018-06-14", 0.139], ["2018-06-15", 0.14], ["2018-06-18", 0.141], ["2018-06-19", 0.143], ["2018-06-21", 0.141], ["2018-06-22", 0.147], ["2018-06-23", 0.147], ["2018-06-24", 0.149], ["2018-06-26", 0.141], ["2018-06-27", 0.143], ["2018-07-01", 0.14], ["2018-07-01", 0.136], ["2018-07-03", 0.136], ["2018-07-04", 0.139], ["2018-07-05", 0.137], ["2018-07-06", 0.137], ["2018-07-07", 0.13], ["2018-07-08", 0.129], ["2018-07-10", 0.123], ["2018-07-11", 0.118], ["2018-07-12", 0.119], ["2018-07-14", 0.119], ["2018-07-18", 0.118], ["2018-07-19", 0.119], ["2018-07-20", 0.118], ["2018-07-21", 0.117], ["2018-07-24", 0.116], ["2018-07-25", 0.116], ["2018-07-26", 0.117], ["2018-07-30", 0.117], ["2018-07-31", 0.117], ["2018-08-01", 0.121], ["2018-08-02", 0.12], ["2018-08-03", 0.116], ["2018-08-04", 0.114], ["2018-08-06", 0.116], ["2018-08-07", 0.113], ["2018-08-08", 0.112], ["2018-08-09", 0.112], ["2018-08-10", 0.119], ["2018-08-11", 0.113], ["2018-08-12", 0.113], ["2018-08-14", 0.112], ["2018-08-14", 0.112], ["2018-08-16", 0.111], ["2018-08-22", 0.112], ["2018-08-23", 0.108], ["2018-08-25", 0.106], ["2018-08-26", 0.105], ["2018-08-27", 0.102], ["2018-08-28", 0.101], ["2018-08-30", 0.097], ["2018-08-31", 0.085]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/705/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
A “significant leadership disruption” includes confirmed reports that the leader: has resigned; has formally left office; has been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days; has fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days; has died; has been medically incapacitated or hospitalized for 10 or more consecutive days; or his/her whereabouts have been unknown for 10 or more days. | true | 2018-08-31 | Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-09 | 2018-03-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-03-31", 0.12], ["2018-04-01", 0.149], ["2018-04-02", 0.169], ["2018-04-02", 0.159], ["2018-04-04", 0.182], ["2018-04-05", 0.19], ["2018-04-05", 0.192], ["2018-04-07", 0.203], ["2018-04-09", 0.201], ["2018-04-10", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-14", 0.205], ["2018-04-16", 0.202], ["2018-04-17", 0.202], ["2018-04-18", 0.208], ["2018-04-19", 0.208], ["2018-04-22", 0.207], ["2018-04-24", 0.207], ["2018-04-25", 0.209], ["2018-04-27", 0.207], ["2018-04-29", 0.208], ["2018-04-30", 0.204], ["2018-05-01", 0.2], ["2018-05-05", 0.2], ["2018-05-08", 0.196], ["2018-05-09", 0.194], ["2018-05-11", 0.195], ["2018-05-11", 0.195], ["2018-05-14", 0.193], ["2018-05-15", 0.194], ["2018-05-16", 0.192], ["2018-05-17", 0.192], ["2018-05-17", 0.195], ["2018-05-19", 0.194], ["2018-05-21", 0.194], ["2018-05-23", 0.193], ["2018-05-24", 0.202], ["2018-05-26", 0.199], ["2018-05-26", 0.197], ["2018-05-30", 0.198], ["2018-06-02", 0.197], ["2018-06-03", 0.196], ["2018-06-06", 0.194], ["2018-06-07", 0.185], ["2018-06-08", 0.185], ["2018-06-10", 0.185], ["2018-06-11", 0.185], ["2018-06-12", 0.183], ["2018-06-15", 0.183], ["2018-06-18", 0.181], ["2018-06-19", 0.181], ["2018-06-20", 0.181], ["2018-06-22", 0.181], ["2018-06-23", 0.18], ["2018-06-25", 0.178], ["2018-06-28", 0.178], ["2018-07-01", 0.178], ["2018-07-01", 0.178], ["2018-07-03", 0.179], ["2018-07-06", 0.177], ["2018-07-07", 0.175], ["2018-07-08", 0.175], ["2018-07-11", 0.175], ["2018-07-18", 0.174], ["2018-07-20", 0.173], ["2018-07-20", 0.171], ["2018-07-22", 0.171], ["2018-07-22", 0.171], ["2018-07-24", 0.169], ["2018-07-25", 0.169], ["2018-07-26", 0.17], ["2018-07-29", 0.169], ["2018-07-29", 0.169], ["2018-07-31", 0.166], ["2018-08-01", 0.164], ["2018-08-02", 0.164], ["2018-08-03", 0.16], ["2018-08-05", 0.157], ["2018-08-06", 0.158], ["2018-08-07", 0.158], ["2018-08-10", 0.158], ["2018-08-12", 0.157], ["2018-08-13", 0.157], ["2018-08-14", 0.155], ["2018-08-16", 0.155], ["2018-08-16", 0.154], ["2018-08-18", 0.153], ["2018-08-19", 0.153], ["2018-08-22", 0.15], ["2018-08-23", 0.15], ["2018-08-24", 0.149], ["2018-08-25", 0.145], ["2018-08-26", 0.144], ["2018-08-28", 0.144], ["2018-08-29", 0.142], ["2018-08-31", 0.14], ["2018-09-02", 0.137], ["2018-09-02", 0.137], ["2018-09-04", 0.135], ["2018-09-06", 0.132], ["2018-09-07", 0.113]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/710/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge. See related news item.
Articles 4 and 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (underlying NATO) describe the conditions under which NATO should either "consult," or consider itself attacked, upon attack on a member country.
Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (The Economist, NATO, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, NATO). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (NATO). NATO has said a cyber attack could trigger Article 5 in the same way as a conventional military assault (The Telegraph). | true | 2018-09-07 | Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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Political consternation over Facebook's conduct has been building in the US elsewhere, with some calling for Zuckerberg to testify before congress.
Will Zuckerberg in fact appear before either the US house or Senate prior to April 17?
Resolution is positive if Zuckerberg enters either chamber of congress, whether he appears voluntarily or involuntarily, and whether or not he says anything of substance. Appearances by other Facebook executives do not count. | true | 2018-04-03 | Will Mark Zuckerberg appear before congress prior to April 17? | metaculus | 1 |
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Even though that time bracket spans less than 18 years, a Baby Boomer has been included as a Presidential nominee on either the Democrat or Republican ticket every year since 1992. And unless President Trump leaves office early or decides not to run again in 2020, we’ll have a Boomer on the ticket again in two years.
Here’s the list of Boomers:
1992: Bill Clinton (D)
1996: Bill Clinton (D)
2000: Al Gore (D) and George W. Bush (R)
2004: George W. Bush (R) [John Kerry (D) is technically a member of the Silent Generation, since he was born in 1943.]
2008: Barack Obama (D) --- yes, Obama is a Boomer, since he was born in 1961.
2012: Barack Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R)
2016: Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R)
2020: Donald Trump (R) ← likely
Gen-Xers – dubbed “America’s neglected ‘middle child’” by Pew Research — seem left out in the cold, at least politically speaking.
Although only a VP nominee, Sarah Palin came close to representing Gen X. Born in February 1964, she missed the Gen X cutoff by less than a year.
Paul Ryan, by contrast, DID get the nod as the first Gen Xer to be nominated by either party for VP or President. Born in 1970, he qualified.
Gen Xers are ascending in other nations. Emmanuel Macron, for instance, won a stunning victory in 2017 to become the leader of France.
With these realities in place, what’s going to happen to the Dems in 2020?
Early surveys have Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders—both members of the Silent Generation (before the Boomers!)—leading early polls.
Will the Dems start a new tradition and nominate a Gen Xer for President the next go around?
Question resolve positive if the 2020 US Democratic Presidential nominee is born between 1965 and 1984, inclusive. | true | 2020-02-01 | Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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The disease must have been contracted in the country of interest for this question to resolve as "yes." Imported cases (e.g., where the patient traveled to an endemic country, contracted the disease, and brought it home) do not meet the resolution criteria, though a locally-transmitted case which originates from an imported case does. If there is no indication of whether a case was locally-transmitted, this question will resolve as “no.” | true | 2018-05-31 | Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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There has been some potential movement in the (surprising) acceptance by Trump of an offer to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On the other hand, John Bolton, the recently appointed National Security Advisor, is notoriously hawkish, and the removal of Rex Tillerson, has left many analysts deeply worried.
While most analysts believe that an unprovoked nuclear strike is unlikely, there are concerns about many pathways to an steady escalation that could lead to a significant conventional or even nuclear war, as outlined in this sobering article.
We'll ask here about the worst case scenario (or among them):
Will a US-led military nuclear first-strike occur in N. Korea by the end of 2018?
Resolution is positive if a US nuclear weapon detonates on or over N. Korean territory and North Korea has not detonated a nuclear weapon outside of North Korea first. Resolution is negative otherwise. | true | 2018-12-15 | Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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Ontario is divided into a series of 124 ridings. Each riding will elect a member of provincial parliament to represent itself using first past the post voting. The party that controls the most ridings wins the election, although if they do not get at least 63 seats they will be a minority government and will likely have to form a coalition or the government will be dissolved.
The Premier of Ontario is the leader of the party with the most members of provincial parliament elected.
The current most likely candidates for Premier are Doug Ford, leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party; incumbent Kathleen Wynne, leader of the Ontario Liberal party; and Andrea Horwath", leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party.
Will Doug Ford be elected the next Premier of Ontario in the upcoming election?
This question resolves positive if the CBC reports that Doug Ford won the election. This questions resolves negative if the CBC reports that a different candidate won the election. | true | 2018-06-06 | Will Doug Ford be elected Premier of Ontario? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-19 | 2018-04-14 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-15", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.324], ["2018-04-22", 0.334], ["2018-04-24", 0.335], ["2018-04-28", 0.327], ["2018-05-01", 0.317], ["2018-05-04", 0.326], ["2018-05-09", 0.328], ["2018-05-11", 0.322], ["2018-05-14", 0.321], ["2018-05-17", 0.315], ["2018-05-19", 0.314], ["2018-05-23", 0.314], ["2018-05-26", 0.319], ["2018-05-31", 0.323], ["2018-06-02", 0.314], ["2018-06-05", 0.315], ["2018-06-07", 0.315], ["2018-06-10", 0.312], ["2018-06-13", 0.288], ["2018-06-17", 0.288], ["2018-06-20", 0.285], ["2018-06-24", 0.281], ["2018-06-29", 0.28], ["2018-07-03", 0.284], ["2018-07-08", 0.284], ["2018-07-12", 0.286], ["2018-07-14", 0.284], ["2018-07-17", 0.285], ["2018-07-20", 0.282], ["2018-07-22", 0.282], ["2018-07-25", 0.28], ["2018-07-29", 0.291], ["2018-08-01", 0.29], ["2018-08-02", 0.294], ["2018-08-06", 0.295], ["2018-08-09", 0.3], ["2018-08-12", 0.3], ["2018-08-16", 0.299], ["2018-08-18", 0.298], ["2018-08-21", 0.298], ["2018-08-25", 0.304], ["2018-08-27", 0.304], ["2018-08-29", 0.304], ["2018-09-01", 0.303], ["2018-09-05", 0.304], ["2018-09-08", 0.332], ["2018-09-10", 0.331], ["2018-09-15", 0.325], ["2018-09-18", 0.325], ["2018-09-20", 0.325], ["2018-09-29", 0.326], ["2018-09-30", 0.326], ["2018-10-08", 0.327], ["2018-10-09", 0.327], ["2018-10-14", 0.327], ["2018-10-17", 0.325], ["2018-10-21", 0.324], ["2018-10-24", 0.323], ["2018-10-28", 0.324], ["2018-10-31", 0.321], ["2018-11-03", 0.322], ["2018-11-07", 0.321], ["2018-11-11", 0.327], ["2018-11-13", 0.332], ["2018-11-16", 0.332], ["2018-11-23", 0.332], ["2018-11-25", 0.332], ["2018-11-29", 0.331], ["2018-12-02", 0.332], ["2018-12-06", 0.332], ["2018-12-09", 0.332], ["2018-12-13", 0.333], ["2018-12-15", 0.333], ["2018-12-18", 0.333], ["2018-12-21", 0.332], ["2018-12-23", 0.332], ["2018-12-31", 0.332], ["2019-01-03", 0.334], ["2019-01-05", 0.334], ["2019-01-08", 0.334], ["2019-01-12", 0.334], ["2019-01-16", 0.334], ["2019-01-20", 0.337], ["2019-01-22", 0.339], ["2019-01-26", 0.339], ["2019-01-29", 0.339], ["2019-02-02", 0.34], ["2019-02-03", 0.339], ["2019-02-07", 0.339], ["2019-02-11", 0.339], ["2019-02-14", 0.338], ["2019-02-16", 0.337], ["2019-02-22", 0.337], ["2019-02-22", 0.337], ["2019-02-28", 0.338], ["2019-03-03", 0.337], ["2019-03-05", 0.339], ["2019-03-10", 0.338], ["2019-03-14", 0.327], ["2019-03-15", 0.321]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/796/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances in the mid term elections this November. They have a durable 6 (or so) point advantage in polling, at least as of late March according to 538.
And a recent win in a special election in Pennsylvania--in a district won convincingly by Trump in 2016--suggests that they have a shot at reclaiming the House.
If they do succeed, an interesting scenario comes into play. Namely, there will be pressure on elected Democrats to take the fight to Trump and impeach him.
Some Democratic strategists think this is a good idea. Others say it would be foolish.
Per Politico:
Polls on the question show as many as three-quarters of Democrats already back impeachment, and one deep-pocketed ally, California megadonor Tom Steyer, has been mounting an expensive pressure campaign across the country to build support for Trump's impeachment. Democratic hostility toward the Republican president seems to intensify daily.
But lawmakers who recall the 1998 impeachment of President Bill Clinton are wary of sparking a political backlash for appearing too eager to remove a president without buy-in from independents and even some Republicans.
We're not here to debate the wisdom (or lack thereof) of such a strategy. We just want to know: do you think they'd follow through and do it?
This question is contingent on Democrats controlling the house. Question resolves positive if the U.S. House of Representatives has a Democratic Speaker, and votes to impeach President Trump before the November 2020 elections. Resolves negative if the House is Democratic at some point between the November 2018 and November 2020 elections and does not vote to impeach by the November 2020 elections. Resolves ambiguous if at no point prior to the 2020 elections do the Democrats control the house. | true | 2019-03-15 | Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-05-02 | 2018-04-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-17", 0.51], ["2018-04-17", 0.493], ["2018-04-17", 0.47], ["2018-04-17", 0.44], ["2018-04-17", 0.388], ["2018-04-17", 0.422], ["2018-04-17", 0.422], ["2018-04-17", 0.408], ["2018-04-17", 0.438], ["2018-04-17", 0.437], ["2018-04-17", 0.447], ["2018-04-17", 0.462], ["2018-04-18", 0.462], ["2018-04-18", 0.459], ["2018-04-18", 0.453], ["2018-04-18", 0.45], ["2018-04-18", 0.45], ["2018-04-18", 0.449], ["2018-04-18", 0.455], ["2018-04-18", 0.455], ["2018-04-18", 0.453], ["2018-04-18", 0.457], ["2018-04-18", 0.459], ["2018-04-18", 0.455], ["2018-04-19", 0.464], ["2018-04-19", 0.47], ["2018-04-19", 0.473], ["2018-04-19", 0.473], ["2018-04-19", 0.473], ["2018-04-19", 0.473], ["2018-04-20", 0.47], ["2018-04-20", 0.47], ["2018-04-20", 0.47], ["2018-04-20", 0.479], ["2018-04-20", 0.49], ["2018-04-21", 0.49], ["2018-04-21", 0.483], ["2018-04-21", 0.485], ["2018-04-21", 0.481], ["2018-04-21", 0.481], ["2018-04-22", 0.489], ["2018-04-22", 0.502], ["2018-04-22", 0.504], ["2018-04-22", 0.504], ["2018-04-22", 0.507], ["2018-04-22", 0.507], ["2018-04-22", 0.521], ["2018-04-22", 0.524], ["2018-04-22", 0.527], ["2018-04-23", 0.53], ["2018-04-23", 0.538], ["2018-04-23", 0.542], ["2018-04-23", 0.542], ["2018-04-23", 0.543], ["2018-04-23", 0.549], ["2018-04-23", 0.552], ["2018-04-24", 0.549], ["2018-04-24", 0.556], ["2018-04-24", 0.558], ["2018-04-25", 0.564], ["2018-04-25", 0.564], ["2018-04-25", 0.566], ["2018-04-25", 0.566], ["2018-04-25", 0.569], ["2018-04-25", 0.575], ["2018-04-25", 0.576], ["2018-04-25", 0.585], ["2018-04-25", 0.592], ["2018-04-25", 0.592], ["2018-04-25", 0.597], ["2018-04-26", 0.599], ["2018-04-26", 0.603], ["2018-04-26", 0.603], ["2018-04-26", 0.604], ["2018-04-26", 0.602], ["2018-04-26", 0.602], ["2018-04-27", 0.607], ["2018-04-27", 0.612], ["2018-04-27", 0.612], ["2018-04-27", 0.612], ["2018-04-27", 0.615], ["2018-04-28", 0.608], ["2018-04-28", 0.608], ["2018-04-29", 0.61], ["2018-04-29", 0.615], ["2018-04-29", 0.62], ["2018-04-29", 0.62], ["2018-04-29", 0.621], ["2018-04-29", 0.617], ["2018-04-29", 0.613], ["2018-04-29", 0.612], ["2018-04-30", 0.616], ["2018-04-30", 0.618], ["2018-04-30", 0.618], ["2018-04-30", 0.617], ["2018-04-30", 0.613], ["2018-04-30", 0.623], ["2018-04-30", 0.624], ["2018-04-30", 0.627], ["2018-04-30", 0.629], ["2018-05-01", 0.627]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/800/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Spring is here, which means it is time to start planning May Day celebrations. For many, May Day is a time to celebrate the end of winter and ugly weather, and to dance around a pole with colorful ribbon. To others, May Day is better known as International Workers' Day, a day to fight for workers' rights and, often, rebel against capitalism. The 1886 protests that led to the very first May Day culminated in a bomb attack in Chicago, killing at least 11 people and resulting in convictions against 8 anarchists. Ever since, May Day has been marked by sporadic violence, including some violent protests last year.
Will there be violent interactions between US protesters and police on May 1, 2018?
Because police violence is often much more clearly delineated than civilian violence, this question's resolution criteria will focus on the former. Specifically, this question will resolve positive if there are credible reports of police using fire arms, pepper spray, tear gas, batons, flash bangs, or any other weapon against protesters. It will also resolve positive if any protesters are killed in an interaction with police, regardless of whether or not weapons were used. | true | 2018-05-01 | Will May Day protests turn violent? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-04 | 2018-04-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-07", 0.61], ["2020-05-07", 0.52], ["2020-05-07", 0.422], ["2020-05-07", 0.422], ["2020-05-07", 0.397], ["2020-05-08", 0.396], ["2020-05-08", 0.395], ["2020-05-08", 0.381], ["2020-05-09", 0.381], ["2020-05-09", 0.378], ["2020-05-09", 0.382], ["2020-05-09", 0.385], ["2020-05-09", 0.376], ["2020-05-10", 0.378], ["2020-05-10", 0.38], ["2020-05-11", 0.38], ["2020-05-11", 0.381], ["2020-05-11", 0.376], ["2020-05-12", 0.379], ["2020-05-12", 0.38], ["2020-05-12", 0.38], ["2020-05-14", 0.377], ["2020-05-16", 0.377], ["2020-05-25", 0.374], ["2020-06-03", 0.377], ["2020-06-03", 0.373], ["2020-06-04", 0.373], ["2020-07-07", 0.37], ["2020-07-13", 0.374], ["2020-08-14", 0.371], ["2020-10-13", 0.372], ["2020-10-13", 0.376], ["2020-10-14", 0.375], ["2020-10-15", 0.374], ["2020-10-18", 0.374], ["2020-10-23", 0.374], ["2020-10-24", 0.373], ["2020-11-17", 0.374], ["2020-11-17", 0.369], ["2020-11-17", 0.364], ["2020-11-18", 0.364], ["2020-11-18", 0.368], ["2020-11-18", 0.368], ["2020-11-18", 0.367], ["2020-11-18", 0.366], ["2020-11-19", 0.366], ["2020-11-19", 0.364], ["2020-11-19", 0.364], ["2020-12-10", 0.363], ["2020-12-15", 0.362], ["2020-12-24", 0.363], ["2021-01-03", 0.363], ["2021-01-04", 0.361], ["2021-01-04", 0.365], ["2021-01-13", 0.365], ["2021-01-21", 0.365], ["2021-01-21", 0.368], ["2021-01-21", 0.369], ["2021-01-22", 0.371], ["2021-01-22", 0.371], ["2021-01-22", 0.371], ["2021-01-22", 0.37], ["2021-01-24", 0.37], ["2021-01-26", 0.369], ["2021-01-27", 0.368], ["2021-01-29", 0.369], ["2021-01-29", 0.37], ["2021-02-12", 0.37], ["2021-02-13", 0.37], ["2021-02-14", 0.371], ["2021-02-15", 0.371], ["2021-04-05", 0.372], ["2021-04-10", 0.372], ["2021-04-12", 0.372], ["2021-05-11", 0.373], ["2021-05-11", 0.373], ["2021-05-11", 0.373], ["2021-05-11", 0.377], ["2021-05-11", 0.379], ["2021-05-11", 0.379], ["2021-05-13", 0.38], ["2021-05-18", 0.38], ["2021-05-22", 0.381], ["2021-06-13", 0.382], ["2021-06-13", 0.381], ["2021-06-17", 0.382], ["2021-06-23", 0.382], ["2021-07-08", 0.381], ["2021-07-11", 0.381], ["2021-07-19", 0.382], ["2021-07-19", 0.383], ["2021-07-20", 0.383], ["2021-07-20", 0.383], ["2021-08-05", 0.382], ["2021-08-18", 0.382], ["2021-08-18", 0.383], ["2021-08-20", 0.383], ["2021-08-22", 0.383], ["2021-10-07", 0.382], ["2021-10-13", 0.382], ["2021-11-06", 0.382]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/804/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | It was previously asked whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive. The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)
As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.
It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?
To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc. | true | 2021-12-24 | Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-12 | 2018-04-18 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-21", 0.2], ["2018-04-23", 0.525], ["2018-04-24", 0.547], ["2018-04-26", 0.554], ["2018-04-27", 0.559], ["2018-04-29", 0.561], ["2018-04-30", 0.573], ["2018-05-02", 0.568], ["2018-05-03", 0.564], ["2018-05-05", 0.565], ["2018-05-06", 0.57], ["2018-05-08", 0.571], ["2018-05-09", 0.573], ["2018-05-11", 0.564], ["2018-05-16", 0.565], ["2018-05-17", 0.564], ["2018-05-19", 0.563], ["2018-05-21", 0.554], ["2018-05-23", 0.552], ["2018-05-25", 0.568], ["2018-05-26", 0.568], ["2018-05-27", 0.569], ["2018-05-29", 0.577], ["2018-05-31", 0.583], ["2018-06-02", 0.584], ["2018-06-02", 0.583], ["2018-06-06", 0.583], ["2018-06-08", 0.597], ["2018-06-11", 0.598], ["2018-06-12", 0.588], ["2018-06-13", 0.588], ["2018-06-15", 0.587], ["2018-06-17", 0.59], ["2018-06-18", 0.59], ["2018-06-19", 0.589], ["2018-06-21", 0.592], ["2018-06-23", 0.583], ["2018-06-24", 0.584], ["2018-06-26", 0.583], ["2018-06-28", 0.583], ["2018-07-03", 0.579], ["2018-07-04", 0.579], ["2018-07-05", 0.579], ["2018-07-06", 0.572], ["2018-07-09", 0.572], ["2018-07-11", 0.567], ["2018-07-13", 0.575], ["2018-07-16", 0.575], ["2018-07-18", 0.575], ["2018-07-22", 0.574], ["2018-07-25", 0.574], ["2018-07-28", 0.572], ["2018-07-29", 0.571], ["2018-08-01", 0.571], ["2018-08-04", 0.576], ["2018-08-06", 0.575], ["2018-08-12", 0.573], ["2018-08-14", 0.573], ["2018-08-16", 0.575], ["2018-08-17", 0.574], ["2018-08-19", 0.574], ["2018-08-21", 0.575], ["2018-08-22", 0.612], ["2018-08-23", 0.631], ["2018-08-25", 0.646], ["2018-08-27", 0.66], ["2018-08-29", 0.66], ["2018-08-30", 0.66], ["2018-08-31", 0.662], ["2018-09-02", 0.665], ["2018-09-03", 0.665], ["2018-09-04", 0.667], ["2018-09-06", 0.67], ["2018-09-09", 0.671], ["2018-09-12", 0.671], ["2018-09-14", 0.672], ["2018-09-17", 0.672], ["2018-09-19", 0.674], ["2018-09-24", 0.673], ["2018-09-25", 0.676], ["2018-09-27", 0.677], ["2018-09-30", 0.679], ["2018-09-30", 0.679], ["2018-10-06", 0.679], ["2018-10-06", 0.679], ["2018-10-09", 0.679], ["2018-10-11", 0.678], ["2018-10-16", 0.679], ["2018-10-16", 0.68], ["2018-10-18", 0.68], ["2018-10-25", 0.678], ["2018-10-26", 0.678], ["2018-10-28", 0.677], ["2018-11-07", 0.677], ["2018-11-08", 0.678], ["2018-11-10", 0.678], ["2018-11-12", 0.679], ["2018-11-29", 0.681], ["2018-12-06", 0.682], ["2018-12-08", 0.687], ["2018-12-10", 0.689]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/809/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | For the purposes of this question, we'll confine Trump's "inner circle" to the following people:
Donald Trump himself
Donald Trump Junior
Ivanka Trump
Jared Kushner
Mike Pence
Michael Cohen
John Kelly
Hope Hicks
Steve Bannon
Note #1: Links go to articles related to potential criminal charges against individuals.
Note #2: Steve Bannon is included on the list, even though he and Trump have had a falling out, simply because of how influential he was earlier in the Presidency.
Will a judge sentence at least one of these people to a jail sentence by Jan 1., 2023?
Resolution is positive even if the person is pardoned, as long as the pardon comes after conviction. We will also count jail time assigned by a judge per contempt of court, etc., if any actual time in jail is spent. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-04-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-22", 0.3], ["2018-04-22", 0.367], ["2018-04-22", 0.325], ["2018-04-23", 0.356], ["2018-04-23", 0.356], ["2018-04-23", 0.399], ["2018-04-23", 0.464], ["2018-04-23", 0.454], ["2018-04-23", 0.454], ["2018-04-23", 0.461], ["2018-04-23", 0.415], ["2018-04-23", 0.415], ["2018-04-24", 0.424], ["2018-04-24", 0.412], ["2018-04-24", 0.454], ["2018-04-24", 0.465], ["2018-04-25", 0.465], ["2018-04-25", 0.489], ["2018-04-25", 0.489], ["2018-04-25", 0.507], ["2018-04-25", 0.502], ["2018-04-26", 0.494], ["2018-04-27", 0.494], ["2018-04-27", 0.506], ["2018-04-27", 0.506], ["2018-04-27", 0.508], ["2018-04-27", 0.508], ["2018-04-27", 0.517], ["2018-04-28", 0.517], ["2018-04-28", 0.517], ["2018-04-28", 0.517], ["2018-04-28", 0.517], ["2018-04-28", 0.502], ["2018-04-28", 0.496], ["2018-04-28", 0.488], ["2018-04-28", 0.487], ["2018-04-29", 0.489], ["2018-04-29", 0.489], ["2018-04-29", 0.489], ["2018-04-29", 0.489], ["2018-04-29", 0.509], ["2018-04-29", 0.524], ["2018-04-29", 0.524], ["2018-04-29", 0.522], ["2018-04-29", 0.535], ["2018-04-30", 0.54], ["2018-04-30", 0.54], ["2018-04-30", 0.537], ["2018-04-30", 0.524], ["2018-04-30", 0.524], ["2018-04-30", 0.524], ["2018-04-30", 0.536], ["2018-04-30", 0.538], ["2018-04-30", 0.534], ["2018-05-01", 0.523], ["2018-05-01", 0.523], ["2018-05-01", 0.523], ["2018-05-01", 0.523], ["2018-05-01", 0.523], ["2018-05-02", 0.523], ["2018-05-03", 0.528], ["2018-05-03", 0.538], ["2018-05-03", 0.539], ["2018-05-03", 0.539], ["2018-05-03", 0.541], ["2018-05-03", 0.545], ["2018-05-03", 0.545], ["2018-05-03", 0.563], ["2018-05-03", 0.573], ["2018-05-03", 0.584], ["2018-05-03", 0.584], ["2018-05-03", 0.591], ["2018-05-04", 0.593], ["2018-05-04", 0.592], ["2018-05-04", 0.6], ["2018-05-04", 0.6], ["2018-05-04", 0.6], ["2018-05-04", 0.6], ["2018-05-04", 0.6], ["2018-05-04", 0.6], ["2018-05-04", 0.605], ["2018-05-04", 0.613], ["2018-05-04", 0.613], ["2018-05-05", 0.613], ["2018-05-05", 0.613], ["2018-05-05", 0.611], ["2018-05-05", 0.609], ["2018-05-05", 0.616], ["2018-05-05", 0.62], ["2018-05-05", 0.63], ["2018-05-05", 0.631], ["2018-05-05", 0.642], ["2018-05-05", 0.646], ["2018-05-06", 0.646], ["2018-05-06", 0.646], ["2018-05-06", 0.647], ["2018-05-06", 0.647], ["2018-05-06", 0.651], ["2018-05-06", 0.651], ["2018-05-06", 0.657], ["2018-05-06", 0.657]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/825/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Just where, exactly, is Westworld? Fan speculation on this question is widespread, with more than a few, shall we say, unusual theories currently in the running. These include the idea that Westworld is located on another planet, or that it’s kept underneath an enormous dome.
While it's true that domes have the advantage of eliminating narrative-incompatible weather patterns and flyovers, would situating Westworld on an island solve the same logistical issues without delving into The Truman Show territory? An island would also jibe with Bernard's reference to “the mainland,” though many suggest mainland here is meant only as metaphor for the outside-the-park world.
This question resolves positively if by the end of season two there is consensus among various fan and critic communities that Westworld’s park is located on either a natural or man-made island.
(For definitional purposes we'll count as an "island" something surrounded by water and of less than 100,000 square kilometers, about 200 miles on a side.) | true | 2018-05-06 | Is Westworld located on an island? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-04-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-04-22", 0.675], ["2018-04-22", 0.675], ["2018-04-22", 0.702], ["2018-04-22", 0.702], ["2018-04-22", 0.742], ["2018-04-22", 0.75], ["2018-04-22", 0.721], ["2018-04-22", 0.712], ["2018-04-22", 0.712], ["2018-04-23", 0.712], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.689], ["2018-04-23", 0.676], ["2018-04-23", 0.656], ["2018-04-23", 0.656], ["2018-04-23", 0.656], ["2018-04-23", 0.624], ["2018-04-23", 0.577], ["2018-04-23", 0.571], ["2018-04-23", 0.571], ["2018-04-24", 0.571], ["2018-04-24", 0.565], ["2018-04-24", 0.572], ["2018-04-25", 0.572], ["2018-04-25", 0.574], ["2018-04-25", 0.562], ["2018-04-25", 0.562], ["2018-04-25", 0.564], ["2018-04-25", 0.551], ["2018-04-25", 0.551], ["2018-04-25", 0.55], ["2018-04-27", 0.551], ["2018-04-27", 0.55], ["2018-04-27", 0.55], ["2018-04-27", 0.553], ["2018-04-28", 0.553], ["2018-04-29", 0.562], ["2018-04-29", 0.561], ["2018-04-29", 0.561], ["2018-04-29", 0.561], ["2018-04-30", 0.559], ["2018-04-30", 0.554], ["2018-05-02", 0.554], ["2018-05-03", 0.548], ["2018-05-04", 0.548], ["2018-05-04", 0.548], ["2018-05-05", 0.542], ["2018-05-05", 0.54], ["2018-05-05", 0.54]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/826/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | In this Westworld Reddit thread, user tselionarskla offers the theory that oldest active Host and primary narrative engine, Dolores, is, in the world of the show, modeled after a "real" human being who existed (at some point) outside of the park.
In support of this theory, already revealed season two footage shows Dolores in “a modern black dress in what looks like a modern building, with Arnold in the background smiling.” And some viewers interpret Dolores’s question to Ford, “Are we very old friends?” to be a hint of revelations to come.
This question resolves positively if by the end of season two there is consensus among various fan and critic communities that Dolores was modeled after a non-host human being from outside the park. | true | 2018-05-06 | In Westworld, is Dolores modeled after a flesh-and-blood human being from outside the park? | metaculus | 0 |
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The referendum on Ireland's current abortion ban is scheduled for 25 May 2018 (Image, Department of Taoiseach). | true | 2018-05-24 | Will Ireland's referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment pass? | metaculus | 1 |
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Yet, whether Tesla will survive through 2019 is another question. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is burning through about $6,500 dollars a minute and is still lagging behind on Model 3 production.
It is asked:Will Tesla file for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2020?
Should Tesla file for bankruptcy while this question is still open, the question shall be closed retroactively at the point 5 hours before the announcement. Of course, if Tesla files for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2019, the question shall still resolve positive. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-05-16 | 2018-05-10 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-10", 0.75], ["2018-05-10", 0.71], ["2018-05-10", 0.623], ["2018-05-10", 0.623], ["2018-05-10", 0.61], ["2018-05-10", 0.568], ["2018-05-10", 0.542], ["2018-05-10", 0.551], ["2018-05-10", 0.551], ["2018-05-10", 0.541], ["2018-05-10", 0.541], ["2018-05-10", 0.547], ["2018-05-10", 0.535], ["2018-05-10", 0.535], ["2018-05-11", 0.548], ["2018-05-11", 0.554], ["2018-05-11", 0.542], ["2018-05-11", 0.532], ["2018-05-11", 0.531], ["2018-05-11", 0.529], ["2018-05-11", 0.529], ["2018-05-11", 0.531], ["2018-05-11", 0.539], ["2018-05-11", 0.548], ["2018-05-11", 0.548], ["2018-05-11", 0.523], ["2018-05-11", 0.516], ["2018-05-12", 0.516], ["2018-05-12", 0.497], ["2018-05-12", 0.496], ["2018-05-12", 0.498], ["2018-05-12", 0.498], ["2018-05-13", 0.494], ["2018-05-13", 0.498], ["2018-05-13", 0.5], ["2018-05-13", 0.5], ["2018-05-13", 0.505], ["2018-05-13", 0.505], ["2018-05-14", 0.485], ["2018-05-14", 0.492], ["2018-05-14", 0.492], ["2018-05-14", 0.492], ["2018-05-14", 0.498], ["2018-05-14", 0.498], ["2018-05-14", 0.498], ["2018-05-14", 0.501], ["2018-05-14", 0.501], ["2018-05-14", 0.506], ["2018-05-14", 0.506], ["2018-05-14", 0.508], ["2018-05-14", 0.506], ["2018-05-14", 0.506], ["2018-05-15", 0.506], ["2018-05-15", 0.497], ["2018-05-15", 0.497], ["2018-05-15", 0.497], ["2018-05-15", 0.497], ["2018-05-15", 0.495], ["2018-05-15", 0.495], ["2018-05-15", 0.495], ["2018-05-15", 0.498], ["2018-05-15", 0.498], ["2018-05-15", 0.503], ["2018-05-15", 0.501], ["2018-05-15", 0.501], ["2018-05-16", 0.501], ["2018-05-16", 0.498], ["2018-05-16", 0.498]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/898/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In December, 2017, the FCC voted to repeal rules it had made under the Obama administration requiring internet providers to obey so-called "net neutrality."
Those rules generally require the ISPs to treat all network traffic equally, not prioritizing or filtering traffic based on extra fees or special treatment for certain sites or services.
Congress has the power to override the FCC's rule-making in this matter. Recently a group led by senate democrats has forced a vote on this issue. The vote is expected the week of May 14-18.
Even if the senate were to vote to keep the rules, it would require a similar vote in the house of representatives to override the FCC's decision. If that vote comes up it can be a seperate question.
Will the senate vote to keep in place net neutrality rules?
Resolves ambiguous if for whatever reason, no vote is taken by June 13. Closes retroactively at one hour prior to the start of voting. | true | 2018-05-16 | Will the US Senate vote to keep net neutrality | metaculus | 1 |
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At the time of this writing an additional two cases of ebola have been confirmed, with 11 more suspected.
Will this outbreak be contained to less than 50 cases of Ebola?
Resolution will be based on WHO data when they declare the outbreak over. | true | 2018-06-01 | Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of question writing, the highest amount of total computation is attributed to AlphaGoZero, at about
FLOP. This is within a factor of 3 of Avogadro's number, indicating that the amount of computation going into ML systems is starting to become "Macroscopic" in terms of having numbers of elements comparable to the number of elementary particles in macroscopic systems. | Science & Tech | By end of 2018, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?
Author will make his best effort to cajole authors of that study into resolving the question. | true | 2018-09-15 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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The Trump administration has announced that it is withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal and is considering additional sanctions over Iran's missile program (CNBC, The Washington Post). Examples of previous launches include the September 2017 and March 2016 ballistic missile tests (CNN, BBC) and the July 2017 satellite launch (Reuters). For more information on ballistic missiles of various ranges see: Arms Control. | true | 2018-05-22 | Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-05-24 | 2018-05-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-19", 0.08], ["2018-05-19", 0.065], ["2018-05-19", 0.047], ["2018-05-19", 0.047], ["2018-05-19", 0.048], ["2018-05-19", 0.048], ["2018-05-19", 0.048], ["2018-05-19", 0.043], ["2018-05-19", 0.044], ["2018-05-19", 0.04], ["2018-05-19", 0.04], ["2018-05-19", 0.041], ["2018-05-20", 0.046], ["2018-05-20", 0.039], ["2018-05-20", 0.039], ["2018-05-20", 0.053], ["2018-05-21", 0.076], ["2018-05-21", 0.076], ["2018-05-21", 0.08], ["2018-05-21", 0.077], ["2018-05-21", 0.073], ["2018-05-21", 0.07], ["2018-05-22", 0.067], ["2018-05-22", 0.067], ["2018-05-22", 0.064], ["2018-05-22", 0.062], ["2018-05-22", 0.06]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/912/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
On 8 May 2018 the U.S. declared that they were withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and will re-impose sanctions on Iran. Iran says it will remain in the deal, which tightly restricted its nuclear development for a decade in return for ending the sanctions. NY Times | true | 2018-05-22 | Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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As described in more detail here, a lot went down in the S2E04 of Westworld, wherein it was revealed that the "real" purpose (or at least realer) is to digitize humans and load them into hosts for personal immortality.
In the episode, at some unclear point in time, Bernard-the-host enters a secret lab and makes off with the red marble-like sphere that apparently represents one of these uploaded minds. But we have no idea whose it is. The three main contenders are (a) Ford, who transferred before he dies, (b) William/MIB, or (c) Arnold, the person on whom Bernard is based. The last seems to be something of a favorite, so we'll ask:
By the end of season 2, will it be revealed that the marble taken from the lab by Bernard contains the mind of Arnold?
There's an accompanying theory that the guy who woke up on the beach all confused is Arnold (in a host) rather than Bernard-as-host; but that's a side bet you can make on your own. (If necessary, question will close retroactively to prior to the episode in which a relevant reveal is made.) | true | 2018-06-02 | Is Arnold in the red marble, in Westworld? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of question writing, the highest amount of total computation is attributed to AlphaGoZero, at about
FLOP. This is within a factor of 3 of Avogadro's number, indicating that the amount of computation going into ML systems is starting to become "Macroscopic" in terms of having numbers of elements comparable to the number of elementary particles in macroscopic systems. | Science & Tech | By end of 2019, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?
Author will make his best effort to cajole authors of that study into resolving the question. | true | 2019-03-15 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of question writing, the highest amount of total computation is attributed to AlphaGoZero, at about FLOP. This is within a factor of 3 of Avogadro's number, indicating that the amount of computation going into ML systems is starting to become "Macroscopic" in terms of having numbers of elements comparable to the number of elementary particles in macroscopic systems. | Science & Tech | By end of 2020, will a published paper or pre-print describe an AI/ML system that has been trained using a number of computations that the method used by OpenAI in the above study would attribute more than operations?
Resolution will be by credible estimate of a computations done in a calculation reported on in writing with enough detail to allow a calculation within ~20% of the FLOP. | true | 2020-05-15 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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There is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to take land without compensation. This is an attempt to redistribute land due to unequal land ownership as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. Some think this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.
This, in addition to the high rate of farm attacks in South Africa has led to conservative white groups gearing up for a fight, some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier.
Will there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet?
The answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023. | true | 2019-08-01 | Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-02 | 2018-05-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-27", 0.13], ["2018-05-27", 0.079], ["2018-05-28", 0.07], ["2018-05-28", 0.072], ["2018-05-29", 0.072], ["2018-05-29", 0.07], ["2018-05-30", 0.084], ["2018-05-30", 0.081], ["2018-05-31", 0.093], ["2018-05-31", 0.091], ["2018-06-01", 0.087], ["2018-06-01", 0.096], ["2018-06-01", 0.091], ["2018-06-02", 0.09], ["2018-06-02", 0.092], ["2018-06-03", 0.092], ["2018-06-03", 0.091], ["2018-06-04", 0.09], ["2018-06-05", 0.089], ["2018-06-06", 0.088], ["2018-06-06", 0.086], ["2018-06-07", 0.091], ["2018-06-07", 0.09], ["2018-06-08", 0.09], ["2018-06-08", 0.089], ["2018-06-09", 0.089], ["2018-06-11", 0.088], ["2018-06-11", 0.087], ["2018-06-12", 0.087], ["2018-06-12", 0.083], ["2018-06-13", 0.083], ["2018-06-13", 0.08], ["2018-06-14", 0.08], ["2018-06-14", 0.079], ["2018-06-15", 0.078], ["2018-06-15", 0.076], ["2018-06-18", 0.075], ["2018-06-19", 0.075], ["2018-06-20", 0.074], ["2018-06-21", 0.074], ["2018-06-21", 0.073], ["2018-06-25", 0.073], ["2018-06-25", 0.072], ["2018-06-27", 0.072], ["2018-06-29", 0.07], ["2018-06-29", 0.07], ["2018-07-03", 0.072], ["2018-07-03", 0.074], ["2018-07-06", 0.074], ["2018-07-07", 0.074], ["2018-07-08", 0.074], ["2018-07-08", 0.074], ["2018-07-09", 0.074], ["2018-07-09", 0.074], ["2018-07-10", 0.073], ["2018-07-10", 0.073], ["2018-07-11", 0.072], ["2018-07-11", 0.071], ["2018-07-14", 0.071], ["2018-07-15", 0.069], ["2018-07-16", 0.069], ["2018-07-18", 0.069], ["2018-07-20", 0.069], ["2018-07-20", 0.069], ["2018-07-22", 0.072], ["2018-07-24", 0.072], ["2018-07-24", 0.071], ["2018-07-26", 0.073], ["2018-07-27", 0.075], ["2018-07-31", 0.074], ["2018-08-01", 0.074], ["2018-08-01", 0.074], ["2018-08-02", 0.074], ["2018-08-02", 0.073], ["2018-08-03", 0.073], ["2018-08-03", 0.071], ["2018-08-06", 0.071], ["2018-08-07", 0.07], ["2018-08-08", 0.067], ["2018-08-09", 0.067], ["2018-08-09", 0.066], ["2018-08-10", 0.066], ["2018-08-12", 0.065], ["2018-08-13", 0.065], ["2018-08-14", 0.064], ["2018-08-16", 0.064], ["2018-08-17", 0.064], ["2018-08-20", 0.065], ["2018-08-20", 0.065], ["2018-08-21", 0.065], ["2018-08-22", 0.065], ["2018-08-23", 0.063], ["2018-08-24", 0.062], ["2018-08-24", 0.061], ["2018-08-25", 0.061], ["2018-08-26", 0.061], ["2018-08-27", 0.061], ["2018-08-29", 0.06], ["2018-08-29", 0.06], ["2018-08-30", 0.059], ["2018-08-31", 0.053]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/924/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
"Acknowledged” means the government of the country executing the attack claims responsibility for it. A “national military attack” includes the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country’s national military forces on another country’s military, military assets, or territory, including citizens located within that territory, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and/or exclusive economic zones. A “cyber” attack will not qualify as a “national military attack.” Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors will not qualify as “national military attacks” unless the government claims responsibility for them. Taiwan is considered a part of China and not an independent country. | true | 2018-08-31 | Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-12 | 2018-05-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-26", 0.075], ["2018-05-26", 0.14], ["2018-05-26", 0.14], ["2018-05-26", 0.389], ["2018-05-26", 0.371], ["2018-05-27", 0.361], ["2018-05-27", 0.34], ["2018-05-27", 0.34], ["2018-05-27", 0.379], ["2018-05-27", 0.368], ["2018-05-27", 0.382], ["2018-05-28", 0.44], ["2018-05-28", 0.44], ["2018-05-28", 0.425], ["2018-05-28", 0.429], ["2018-05-28", 0.429], ["2018-05-28", 0.425], ["2018-05-28", 0.423], ["2018-05-29", 0.432], ["2018-05-29", 0.44], ["2018-05-29", 0.442], ["2018-05-29", 0.442], ["2018-05-29", 0.449], ["2018-05-30", 0.442], ["2018-05-30", 0.448], ["2018-05-30", 0.442], ["2018-05-30", 0.447], ["2018-05-30", 0.438], ["2018-05-31", 0.444], ["2018-05-31", 0.444], ["2018-05-31", 0.442], ["2018-05-31", 0.44], ["2018-05-31", 0.442], ["2018-06-01", 0.454], ["2018-06-01", 0.454], ["2018-06-01", 0.449], ["2018-06-01", 0.449], ["2018-06-01", 0.496], ["2018-06-02", 0.497], ["2018-06-02", 0.499], ["2018-06-02", 0.512], ["2018-06-02", 0.52], ["2018-06-02", 0.551], ["2018-06-02", 0.561], ["2018-06-02", 0.568], ["2018-06-03", 0.568], ["2018-06-03", 0.569], ["2018-06-03", 0.571], ["2018-06-03", 0.59], ["2018-06-03", 0.594], ["2018-06-04", 0.595], ["2018-06-04", 0.595], ["2018-06-04", 0.596], ["2018-06-04", 0.594], ["2018-06-04", 0.602], ["2018-06-04", 0.599], ["2018-06-05", 0.599], ["2018-06-05", 0.592], ["2018-06-05", 0.592], ["2018-06-05", 0.596], ["2018-06-05", 0.601], ["2018-06-05", 0.601], ["2018-06-06", 0.607], ["2018-06-06", 0.605], ["2018-06-06", 0.611], ["2018-06-06", 0.612], ["2018-06-06", 0.616], ["2018-06-06", 0.624], ["2018-06-06", 0.625], ["2018-06-07", 0.626], ["2018-06-07", 0.63], ["2018-06-07", 0.634], ["2018-06-07", 0.637], ["2018-06-07", 0.641], ["2018-06-07", 0.642], ["2018-06-07", 0.653], ["2018-06-08", 0.655], ["2018-06-08", 0.652], ["2018-06-08", 0.656], ["2018-06-08", 0.656], ["2018-06-08", 0.662], ["2018-06-08", 0.664], ["2018-06-08", 0.668], ["2018-06-09", 0.669], ["2018-06-09", 0.671], ["2018-06-09", 0.672], ["2018-06-09", 0.675], ["2018-06-09", 0.675], ["2018-06-09", 0.675], ["2018-06-09", 0.676], ["2018-06-10", 0.676], ["2018-06-10", 0.679], ["2018-06-10", 0.688], ["2018-06-10", 0.689], ["2018-06-10", 0.692], ["2018-06-11", 0.692], ["2018-06-11", 0.71], ["2018-06-11", 0.733], ["2018-06-11", 0.753], ["2018-06-11", 0.763], ["2018-06-11", 0.764]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/928/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The first face-to-face meeting between American and North Korean leaders is set for June 12th (and perhaps June 13th!) on Singapore's Sentosa Island. Months of brinksmanship between the US and the hermit kingdom have placed the historic gathering in and out of play, as "open hostility," John Bolton's invocation of the "Libya model" of denuclearization, and now Rudy Giuliani's "hands and knees" comment all complicate an already highly delicate political moment.
The question is aimed at Donald Trump's scheduled meeting with Kim Jong-un, but technically would be resolved positively if the North Korean leader meets with a head of government from any G7 nation before the 15th. | true | 2018-06-12 | Will Kim Jong-un meet the head of government from any G7 nation in-person before 15 June 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2018-05-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-27", 0.45], ["2018-06-01", 0.636], ["2018-06-06", 0.627], ["2018-06-11", 0.64], ["2018-06-18", 0.621], ["2018-06-23", 0.614], ["2018-06-27", 0.614], ["2018-07-04", 0.613], ["2018-07-09", 0.61], ["2018-07-14", 0.61], ["2018-07-18", 0.607], ["2018-07-22", 0.609], ["2018-07-28", 0.62], ["2018-08-03", 0.62], ["2018-08-06", 0.621], ["2018-08-10", 0.621], ["2018-08-13", 0.62], ["2018-08-22", 0.62], ["2018-08-24", 0.62], ["2018-09-02", 0.613], ["2018-09-08", 0.611], ["2018-09-12", 0.596], ["2018-09-17", 0.597], ["2018-09-25", 0.597], ["2018-09-29", 0.596], ["2018-10-04", 0.595], ["2018-10-09", 0.597], ["2018-10-12", 0.594], ["2018-10-16", 0.6], ["2018-10-25", 0.599], ["2018-10-30", 0.598], ["2018-11-03", 0.599], ["2018-11-14", 0.599], ["2018-11-19", 0.6], ["2018-11-23", 0.599], ["2018-11-26", 0.6], ["2018-12-03", 0.6], ["2018-12-06", 0.594], ["2018-12-12", 0.595], ["2018-12-21", 0.597], ["2018-12-25", 0.597], ["2018-12-29", 0.597], ["2019-01-03", 0.598], ["2019-01-07", 0.597], ["2019-01-11", 0.597], ["2019-01-15", 0.597], ["2019-01-21", 0.6], ["2019-01-26", 0.6], ["2019-02-02", 0.601], ["2019-03-05", 0.604], ["2019-03-09", 0.602], ["2019-03-17", 0.605], ["2019-03-23", 0.607], ["2019-03-27", 0.609], ["2019-04-02", 0.61], ["2019-04-08", 0.608], ["2019-04-09", 0.606], ["2019-04-28", 0.607], ["2019-04-28", 0.606], ["2019-05-07", 0.602], ["2019-05-13", 0.606], ["2019-05-18", 0.605], ["2019-05-25", 0.605], ["2019-05-26", 0.605], ["2019-06-03", 0.608], ["2019-06-10", 0.601], ["2019-06-17", 0.6], ["2019-06-23", 0.6], ["2019-06-29", 0.599], ["2019-07-05", 0.596], ["2019-07-09", 0.596], ["2019-07-14", 0.596], ["2019-07-20", 0.599], ["2019-07-24", 0.597], ["2019-07-28", 0.597], ["2019-08-04", 0.596], ["2019-08-12", 0.596], ["2019-08-21", 0.596], ["2019-08-21", 0.596], ["2019-08-28", 0.596], ["2019-08-30", 0.595], ["2019-09-08", 0.595], ["2019-09-10", 0.591], ["2019-09-22", 0.59], ["2019-09-28", 0.59], ["2019-10-03", 0.589], ["2019-10-08", 0.59], ["2019-10-15", 0.589], ["2019-10-21", 0.588], ["2019-10-27", 0.589], ["2019-11-03", 0.589], ["2019-11-14", 0.589], ["2019-11-19", 0.59], ["2019-11-25", 0.59], ["2019-12-01", 0.59], ["2019-12-08", 0.59], ["2019-12-14", 0.587], ["2019-12-17", 0.586], ["2019-12-23", 0.585], ["2019-12-29", 0.584], ["2019-12-31", 0.581]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/930/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Donald Trump won the 2016 election, to the surprise of many (including many here on Metaculus), having never been elected to a political office before. This is rare amongst US presidents, with the last such president being Eisenhower, who had been a military leader instead.
But perhaps the age of the politician president is over and the age of the celebrity president has begun?
This question asks whether the winner of the 2020 election will have been elected to any previous significant political office.
Positive resolution occurs if the winner of the 2020 election has been previously elected to the House of Representatives, the Senate, the Governorship of any state or the Vice Presidency (but not the Presidency itself, since Trump first appeared in the celebrity rather than politician category). Examples in this category include Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and others.
Negative resolution occurs if the winner is has never been elected to such an office. Examples in this category include a Trump re-election, Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Mark Zuckerberg, Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson and most other Americans. | true | 2020-01-01 | Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-17 | 2018-05-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-28", 0.1], ["2018-06-02", 0.504], ["2018-06-07", 0.503], ["2018-06-10", 0.508], ["2018-06-14", 0.51], ["2018-06-19", 0.509], ["2018-06-26", 0.506], ["2018-07-03", 0.506], ["2018-07-06", 0.501], ["2018-07-11", 0.492], ["2018-07-16", 0.498], ["2018-07-22", 0.498], ["2018-08-06", 0.497], ["2018-08-10", 0.495], ["2018-08-15", 0.495], ["2018-08-19", 0.495], ["2018-08-25", 0.498], ["2018-08-29", 0.499], ["2018-09-04", 0.493], ["2018-09-07", 0.506], ["2018-09-12", 0.505], ["2018-09-17", 0.5], ["2018-09-27", 0.5], ["2018-10-03", 0.498], ["2018-10-09", 0.498], ["2018-10-14", 0.499], ["2018-10-17", 0.501], ["2018-10-22", 0.501], ["2018-10-26", 0.485], ["2018-10-30", 0.483], ["2018-11-02", 0.482], ["2018-11-14", 0.482], ["2018-11-23", 0.482], ["2018-12-03", 0.479], ["2018-12-08", 0.48], ["2018-12-10", 0.48], ["2018-12-15", 0.481], ["2018-12-21", 0.479], ["2018-12-25", 0.479], ["2018-12-28", 0.479], ["2019-01-01", 0.478], ["2019-01-07", 0.478], ["2019-01-11", 0.477], ["2019-01-13", 0.474], ["2019-01-19", 0.471], ["2019-01-24", 0.471], ["2019-01-27", 0.469], ["2019-02-01", 0.463], ["2019-02-22", 0.462], ["2019-02-27", 0.462], ["2019-03-05", 0.461], ["2019-03-10", 0.461], ["2019-03-25", 0.461], ["2019-04-09", 0.458], ["2019-04-12", 0.456], ["2019-04-15", 0.454], ["2019-04-19", 0.449], ["2019-04-22", 0.449], ["2019-04-25", 0.447], ["2019-04-30", 0.445], ["2019-05-05", 0.445], ["2019-05-07", 0.445], ["2019-05-16", 0.444], ["2019-05-20", 0.442], ["2019-05-23", 0.442], ["2019-05-29", 0.437], ["2019-06-03", 0.437], ["2019-06-09", 0.413], ["2019-06-14", 0.413], ["2019-06-16", 0.411], ["2019-06-21", 0.411], ["2019-06-25", 0.41], ["2019-06-28", 0.406], ["2019-07-02", 0.404], ["2019-07-05", 0.404], ["2019-07-11", 0.403], ["2019-07-16", 0.394], ["2019-07-21", 0.384], ["2019-07-25", 0.381], ["2019-07-28", 0.379], ["2019-07-31", 0.377], ["2019-08-05", 0.375], ["2019-08-10", 0.365], ["2019-08-13", 0.364], ["2019-08-17", 0.363], ["2019-08-22", 0.357], ["2019-08-27", 0.351], ["2019-09-02", 0.348], ["2019-09-06", 0.348], ["2019-09-11", 0.341], ["2019-09-15", 0.337], ["2019-09-18", 0.337], ["2019-09-23", 0.334], ["2019-09-28", 0.33], ["2019-10-01", 0.328], ["2019-10-09", 0.329], ["2019-10-15", 0.328], ["2019-10-16", 0.329], ["2019-10-23", 0.329], ["2019-10-29", 0.323], ["2019-11-02", 0.305]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/931/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | It is usual for incumbent first-term presidents to receive their party's nomination for a second term, with Jimmy Carter in 1980 the last sitting president to lose at least one primary contest. However, in many ways, Donald Trump is an unusual president.
This question therefore asks whether Donald Trump will face a serious challenge for the Republican Party's nomination in 2020.
The question will resolve positively if a candidate other than Trump wins a primary or caucus election in any state or territory that provides bound delegates at the Republican national convention. This also includes the case where Trump finishes his first term but does not run for a second term, or drops out during the race. For clarity, the last sitting president who would have resolved this question positively would have been Carter, and Ford's '76 campaign would have also resolved positively.
The question resolves negatively if Trump successfully wins all of the Republican primary elections, or if he is the only candidate running. The re-election campaigns of Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Reagan would all have resolved negatively.
Should Trump never make it to 2020 (eg. he resigns, is impeached or dies before first primary) the resolution is ambiguous. | true | 2019-11-03 | Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-25 | 2018-05-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-05-28", 0.25], ["2018-05-28", 0.533], ["2018-05-29", 0.559], ["2018-05-30", 0.527], ["2018-05-30", 0.539], ["2018-05-31", 0.511], ["2018-06-01", 0.546], ["2018-06-01", 0.545], ["2018-06-02", 0.536], ["2018-06-02", 0.539], ["2018-06-03", 0.55], ["2018-06-04", 0.55], ["2018-06-05", 0.548], ["2018-06-05", 0.55], ["2018-06-06", 0.554], ["2018-06-07", 0.554], ["2018-06-07", 0.556], ["2018-06-08", 0.556], ["2018-06-09", 0.554], ["2018-06-10", 0.554], ["2018-06-12", 0.555], ["2018-06-12", 0.55], ["2018-06-13", 0.55], ["2018-06-13", 0.55], ["2018-06-14", 0.552], ["2018-06-15", 0.552], ["2018-06-15", 0.554], ["2018-06-18", 0.555], ["2018-06-19", 0.555], ["2018-06-20", 0.556], ["2018-06-22", 0.558], ["2018-06-22", 0.555], ["2018-06-24", 0.555], ["2018-06-25", 0.551], ["2018-06-25", 0.551], ["2018-06-27", 0.551], ["2018-06-28", 0.55], ["2018-06-29", 0.549], ["2018-06-30", 0.549], ["2018-06-30", 0.548], ["2018-07-01", 0.546], ["2018-07-03", 0.545], ["2018-07-05", 0.545], ["2018-07-06", 0.547], ["2018-07-06", 0.55], ["2018-07-08", 0.553], ["2018-07-08", 0.553], ["2018-07-09", 0.555], ["2018-07-10", 0.56], ["2018-07-10", 0.56], ["2018-07-12", 0.56], ["2018-07-13", 0.558], ["2018-07-14", 0.558], ["2018-07-15", 0.553], ["2018-07-20", 0.551], ["2018-07-21", 0.551], ["2018-07-22", 0.548], ["2018-07-23", 0.549], ["2018-07-24", 0.547], ["2018-07-27", 0.546], ["2018-07-28", 0.538], ["2018-07-28", 0.545], ["2018-07-29", 0.541], ["2018-07-30", 0.541], ["2018-07-31", 0.538], ["2018-08-01", 0.539], ["2018-08-01", 0.532], ["2018-08-02", 0.533], ["2018-08-03", 0.533], ["2018-08-03", 0.533], ["2018-08-04", 0.532], ["2018-08-04", 0.532], ["2018-08-05", 0.532], ["2018-08-06", 0.53], ["2018-08-07", 0.525], ["2018-08-07", 0.522], ["2018-08-08", 0.522], ["2018-08-09", 0.519], ["2018-08-10", 0.515], ["2018-08-11", 0.515], ["2018-08-11", 0.514], ["2018-08-12", 0.515], ["2018-08-13", 0.513], ["2018-08-14", 0.512], ["2018-08-15", 0.508], ["2018-08-16", 0.508], ["2018-08-17", 0.507], ["2018-08-18", 0.507], ["2018-08-19", 0.508], ["2018-08-20", 0.508], ["2018-08-21", 0.508], ["2018-08-22", 0.509], ["2018-08-24", 0.509], ["2018-08-24", 0.507], ["2018-08-25", 0.507], ["2018-08-26", 0.498], ["2018-08-26", 0.497], ["2018-08-27", 0.494], ["2018-08-28", 0.491], ["2018-08-29", 0.483], ["2018-08-30", 0.474]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/932/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The world's best-known cryptocurrency took the world by storm in 2017, peaking at nearly $20,000 in December, 2017.
2018 has been less kind to bitcoin and to cryptocurrencies in general. As of May 22, bitcoin is floating around $8,200. Other "Altcoins" like Ethereum and Ripple have been similarly hammered this year.
In discussing "what's next" for cryptos – and bitcoin, specifically – much of the chatter has pitted bulls versus bears.
For instance, on the bullish side...
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors predicts $25,000 for bitcoin in 2018.
Tim Draper argues for a $250,000 bitcoin price by 2022.
John McAfee, who represents an extreme end of the spectrum, says bitcoin will reach $1M by 2020.
The bears, meanwhile, see doom ahead:
Joe Davis of Vanguard thinks that there's a substantial chance bitcoin will fall to zero.
Warren Buffett just called the cryptocurrency "rat poison" and Buffett's friend, Charlie Munger, went even further, saying that cryptos are "just dementia."
Journalist Hamilton Nolan outlines the bear's case with acid humor here.
But the purpose of this question is not to choose between the bears and the bulls. It's to choose between the moderates and the extremists.
For this question to resolve positive (i.e. the extremists win):
Bitcoin must rocket to the moon--defined as 2X-ing its May 22 price to at least touch $16,400 once by year's end;
OR bitcoin must plummet to the bottom of the ocean--defined as 1/2-xing its May 22 price to at least touch $4,100 once by year's end. | true | 2018-08-30 | Will bitcoin either boom or bust (but not just boringly wander up or down) during 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
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The affair offered symbolic power as well. The New York Times, for instance, celebrated its "Bicultural Blackness", while Time Magazine tuned into the couple's special song, Stand By Me, noting that:
For many, [the song's] lyrics also pack a deep political message. When [it] first rose to popularity during the civil rights movement, it was used as a rallying cry for solidarity amongst people of color.
Now that the nuptials are over, though, the chatter amongst commoners has turned to questions of parenthood. The UK tabloid, Express, summarized the situation:
The odds of Meghan and Harry having a child this year have been slashed by bookmakers Paddy Power. Standing at 20/1 yesterday, they have slid to 4/1 today suggesting there is a chance Meghan may indeed have been pregnant as she walked down the aisle.
Express also notes that "the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge waited 20 months after their wedding before announcing Kate’s pregnancy."
What do you think? Question resolves positive if the new royal couple annouces Meghan's pregancy before January 1, 2019. | true | 2018-08-20 | Will Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce a pregnancy by year's end? | metaculus | 1 |
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Statistically speaking, we should expect another no hitter by the end of the 2018 season.
But perfect games are a whole different animal. To qualify for this honor, a team must put away every single batter through nine innings. No walks, men on base due to errors or hit batsmen allowed.
To date, the sport has witnesses only a vanishingly small number of perfect games. As MLB.com colorfully explains:
There have been just 23 such outings among the hundreds of thousands of big league games played since Rutherford B. Hayes was in the White House.
That said, there have been 6 perfect games since 2009, with 3 of them coming in 2012 alone!
And there's plenty of awesome pitching talent playing in 2018, including Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, and Max Scherzer.
Furthermore, a 538 analysis suggests that baseball's becoming a more pitcher-friendly game. The fans might not love a slower pace, but this trend should increase our chances of seeing a perfect game soon. 538 explains:
The average delay between pitches has jumped a full second. It’s all part of a decadelong trend toward more sluggish play, and there’s an alarming reason baseball’s pace problem is likely to get even worse going forward: Slowing down helps pitchers throw faster.
Question resolves positive if a MLB pitcher throws a perfect game in 2018 (either in the regular season or in the post season). Question closes retroactively at 1 hour before the start of a game in which this occurs, if it does. | true | 2018-10-15 | Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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The disease must have been contracted in the country of interest for this question to resolve as "yes." Imported cases (e.g., where the patient traveled to an endemic country, contracted the disease, and brought it home) do not meet the resolution criteria, though a locally-transmitted case which originates from an imported case does. If there is no indication of whether a case was locally-transmitted, this question will resolve as “no.” | true | 2018-08-31 | Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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With new advances in genetic engineering using CRISPR, it is now much easier to modify an organism's genes. This makes engineered gene drives tractable: a gene coding for the CRISPR system itself can be encoded near to the gene being "driven," so that if one copy of the driven allele and one "wild" allele are inherited, the CRISPR system modifies the wild gene so that the driven gene plus CRISPR system is inherited. This process can spread the driven gene expoentially throughout a population, at a rate far exceeding the spread of a gene that is merely favorable for survival.
Uses of this method include the potential to eliminate diseases like malaria or lyme disease that are spread by a fast-reproducing vector, by promoting disease-resistant traits. Valentino Gantz et. al. have genetically altered a primary malaria vector native to India, the Anopheles stephensi mosquito, to carry and pass on anti-malaria traits. Another study published in nature biotechnology offers a more drastic approach that would render female Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, native to Africa, completely infertile, with the intent of wiping out the species in affected ecosystems. Similar studies have investigated engineering mice (a prime carrier) to be immune to Lyme disease.
With Malaria afflicting hundreds of millions of people per year, advances in gene drive research have insitgated public conversation about the usefulness, feasibility, and ethics of gene drives is being encouraged before testing them in wild ecosystems.
By January 1st, 2020, will a credible reports indicate that a formal submission has been made to a regulatory body proposing to test a malaria-combatting gene drive in a wild population?
For positive resolution, the drive need not targeted for the US or home country of the researchers (indeed this is unlikely), but must be done under the purview of some regulatory body so that in principle parameters and details of the drive are provided and (potentially) approved by some authority. The drive itself need not be initiated to count. The wild population can be isolated (say on an island or even in an enclosure) to control spreading but should aim to replicate natural reproduction etc., and cannot be a laboratory setting. | true | 2019-01-01 | By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated? | metaculus | 0 |
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They have three missons planned. The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition "harvest moon" set to be in 2021.
This question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:
Will they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023?
Question resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth. | true | 2020-06-16 | Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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They have three missons planned. The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition "harvest moon" set to be in 2021.
This question concerns the first step:
A mission associated with Moon Express successfully reach the moon by start of 2021?
Question resolves positive if an instrument reaches the lunar surface intact by Jan 1, 2021. The instrument need not function perfectly but should not have been destroyed or majorly damaged upon impact. | true | 2019-06-16 | Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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As shipping traffic via Arctic routes gradually increases due to less sea ice, international policy efforts are underway to ban heavy fuel oil (HFO) from the Arctic, as it is banned in the Antarctic, before there is a spill (CTV News,The ICCT, NOAA). | true | 2018-09-07 | Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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Since 2002, 3 out of the 4 defending champions have been eliminated in the first round group stage. France in 2002, Italy in 2010 and Spain in 2014. Again, the only exception here is Brazil in 2006 who managed to get to the quarterfinals at WC2006.
However, Germany is still one of the favourites, according to the bookmakers.
Can they retain their FIFA World Cup in 2018? | true | 2018-06-25 | Will Germany win the FIFA World Cup? | metaculus | 0 |
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To explore this and other urgent hypotheses about Earth's nearest neighbor, India is set to launch the Chandrayaan-2 space mission this year. Space.com reports:
the new [Chandrayaan] mission will consist of an orbiter, a lander and a rover. The orbiter will perform mapping from an altitude of 100 kilometers (62 miles), while the lander will make a soft landing on the surface and send out the rover.
India Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has more details about the mission:
The mission will carry a six-wheeled Rover which will move around the landing site in semi-autonomous mode as decided by the ground commands... The payloads will collect scientific information on lunar topography, mineralogy, elemental abundance, lunar exosphere and signatures of hydroxyl and water-ice.
Launch is scheduled for late October. It was initially set to sail to the stars in April, but command grounded it for an additional six months. ISRO's Dr. Arun Sinha cryptically remarked: "Being a very complex mission with a lander, rover, and an orbiter, more critical tests are planned,”
Will Chandrayaan-2 successfully blast off before 2018 is out?
Resolution is positive if the rocket lifts off and clears 100 km; success of the mission as a whole is not required. | true | 2018-10-15 | Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out? | metaculus | 0 |
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For the wonks in the audience, this link gives technical specs on all the confirmed LIGO events to date.
Here's what's interesting, though. The last merger announcement took place last November... about an event called GW170608 that was detected over a year ago.
Unless the LIGO skeptics have a point have a point, we should get some fresh new mergers in the hopper any day now. Right?
Will a gravitational wave observatory officially announce the discovery of a 6th black hole-black hole merge by the end of summer 2018 (September 22, 2018)?
Resolution is by positive appearance at the above-linked detection list | true | 2018-08-01 | Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer? | metaculus | 0 |
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But of course, drones can also be a bit creepy, and there is a dark side. For instance, this miltary-educated blogger discusses havoc he could wreak with technology he could buy at Walmart or the Apple Store:
I’m holding a drone that can fly thousands of feet in air in less than 30 seconds, getting it to an altitude where no one could see it. My drone could be up in the air, ready to strike a target before you even had time to blink... It is not meant to take nice photos of my vacation. It is meant to strike. A small mechanism allows it to carry and drop a 2.5-pound payload — potentially grenades, bombs, even poison.
Meanwhile, police can now use weaponized drones. And the sheer number of ways unsavory people could use these things for evil is disturbing.
Over a year ago, the number of registered drones in the U.S. was already pushing 1M. And that doesn't count the unregistered ones.
All of this action appears to be leading to a dark place. Even if large-scale military use does not occur (which is by no means clear), it seems inevitable that someone in the United States will eventually be killed by a drone.
Will that happen by end of 2018?
Question resolves positive if there's a substantiated news report of at least one death-by-drone on U.S. soil before January 1, 2019. | true | 2018-09-15 | Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up? | metaculus | 0 |
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In California a bill has been passed that would put DST to the voters as a ballot initiative in November 2018.(Though as of question launch it has not been signed by Governor Brown.)
We ask:
Will California be off of daylight savings time in 2020?
Resolves positive if in 2020 there are no daylight savings times switches in spring, negative otherwise. | true | 2018-11-05 | Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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In the intervening years, there have been a variety of attempts to end the detente and allow Assange to leave Ecuadorian protection of his own volition. He has been granted Ecuadorian citizenship and denied internet access in an attempt to curb his politically-toxic image. In unrelated developments, the Swedish charges he once fled have been dropped, and the Ecuadorian regime has turned over into one seemingly less friendly to Assange's predicament. As Assange continues to court controversy, how much longer will Ecuadorian officials be inclined to foot the bills?
This question asks whether he will still be in the embassy (in London) when 2018 ends, resolving positively if he is alive and in the embassy on Jan 1, 2019, and he has not left (voluntarily or otherwise) in the intervening period. | true | 2018-11-01 | Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
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Space.com has the skinny:
The spacecraft, which launched in 2014, is set to arrive at the 3,000-foot-wide (900 meters) asteroid on or around June 27. After arriving, the probe will drop three rovers and a lander onto the space rock's surface to explore and grab samples. The newest asteroid views reveal that Ryugu is a world of dramatic angles, covered with dents and craters, rotating in the opposite direction that Earth and the sun are as the object orbits.
Cool pictures of Ryugu are here.
The craft is loaded with equipment that – if all goes well – will dock with the asteroid. And there are multiple chances of success. (If one rover falters, for instance, there are backups.)
Then again, any space mission is fraught. We all remember what happened to the Philae probe, which journeyed over 300M miles from home only to conk out on its destination comet.
Will at least one of Hayabusa2's rovers or lander touch down on Ryugu and send at least one picture from the surface?
To keep it sporting, question will retroactively close 1 hour prior to the first landing attempt. | true | 2018-07-15 | Will Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft's lander or rovers successfully land on the asteroid Ryugu? | metaculus | 1 |
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This has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates.
This question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.
Here are the top 5 ISPs for this question:
Comcast
Charter
AT&T
Verizon
Century Link
(From this list.) | true | 2018-08-15 | Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-20 | 2018-06-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-23", 0.19], ["2018-08-24", 0.19], ["2018-08-24", 0.53], ["2018-08-24", 0.53], ["2018-08-24", 0.518], ["2018-08-24", 0.517], ["2018-08-24", 0.517], ["2018-08-24", 0.49], ["2018-08-24", 0.492], ["2018-08-24", 0.506], ["2018-08-24", 0.52], ["2018-08-24", 0.522], ["2018-08-24", 0.532], ["2018-08-24", 0.534], ["2018-08-24", 0.534], ["2018-08-25", 0.539], ["2018-08-25", 0.551], ["2018-08-25", 0.546], ["2018-08-25", 0.546], ["2018-08-25", 0.549], ["2018-08-25", 0.542], ["2018-08-25", 0.55], ["2018-08-26", 0.55], ["2018-08-26", 0.55], ["2018-08-26", 0.562], ["2018-08-26", 0.563], ["2018-08-27", 0.568], ["2018-08-28", 0.573], ["2018-08-28", 0.573], ["2018-08-29", 0.579], ["2018-08-29", 0.594], ["2018-09-01", 0.591], ["2018-09-02", 0.591], ["2018-09-02", 0.573], ["2018-09-02", 0.573], ["2018-09-02", 0.577], ["2018-09-03", 0.578], ["2018-09-05", 0.578], ["2018-09-08", 0.582], ["2018-09-10", 0.582], ["2018-09-11", 0.582], ["2018-09-12", 0.584], ["2018-09-12", 0.589], ["2018-09-13", 0.589], ["2018-09-19", 0.584], ["2018-09-20", 0.593], ["2018-09-25", 0.593], ["2018-09-27", 0.59], ["2018-09-29", 0.595], ["2018-09-30", 0.591], ["2018-10-04", 0.591], ["2018-10-04", 0.598], ["2018-10-06", 0.595], ["2018-10-08", 0.595], ["2018-10-09", 0.595], ["2018-10-16", 0.59], ["2018-10-16", 0.59], ["2018-10-25", 0.59], ["2018-10-30", 0.589], ["2018-10-31", 0.587], ["2018-11-04", 0.587], ["2018-11-14", 0.585], ["2018-11-14", 0.585], ["2018-11-19", 0.586], ["2018-11-22", 0.582], ["2018-11-22", 0.579], ["2018-12-02", 0.581], ["2018-12-03", 0.58], ["2018-12-10", 0.58], ["2018-12-10", 0.58], ["2018-12-13", 0.579], ["2018-12-15", 0.583], ["2018-12-28", 0.583], ["2018-12-29", 0.584], ["2018-12-31", 0.589], ["2019-01-01", 0.591], ["2019-01-03", 0.591]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1004/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Following concerns about privacy of its citizens, the European Union enacted the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), forcing websites serving European citizens to adhere to certain standards of user consent, data transparency, and user information access and erasure.
Big companies especially have spent a long time and much money preparing for the law, which came into effect in May, 2018. Several large companies have already received claims that they are not in compliance with the regulation.
This question resolves positively only if a European or US company with a market cap of over 50 billion nominal USD is fined at least 1 million nominal USD (cumulatively) for GDPR violations by end-of-day Dec 31, 2021 Eastern Time .
The market cap requirement (as specified by the intraday value on, for example, Yahoo finance) can be met at any point in time by the end date specified above for the company to qualify. "European or US" can be determined using e.g. Forbes' list or comparable data source. | true | 2019-03-15 | Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-06 | 2018-06-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-01", 0.6], ["2018-07-01", 0.758], ["2018-07-01", 0.807], ["2018-07-02", 0.797], ["2018-07-02", 0.772], ["2018-07-02", 0.783], ["2018-07-03", 0.781], ["2018-07-03", 0.782], ["2018-07-03", 0.782], ["2018-07-04", 0.787], ["2018-07-04", 0.79], ["2018-07-04", 0.79], ["2018-07-05", 0.79], ["2018-07-05", 0.79], ["2018-07-06", 0.794], ["2018-07-06", 0.8], ["2018-07-06", 0.803], ["2018-07-07", 0.804], ["2018-07-07", 0.803], ["2018-07-08", 0.806], ["2018-07-09", 0.808], ["2018-07-09", 0.808], ["2018-07-10", 0.808], ["2018-07-10", 0.815], ["2018-07-10", 0.822], ["2018-07-11", 0.816], ["2018-07-11", 0.818], ["2018-07-11", 0.818], ["2018-07-12", 0.821], ["2018-07-12", 0.82], ["2018-07-13", 0.82], ["2018-07-13", 0.816], ["2018-07-14", 0.816], ["2018-07-14", 0.818], ["2018-07-14", 0.818], ["2018-07-15", 0.814], ["2018-07-15", 0.815], ["2018-07-16", 0.815], ["2018-07-17", 0.815], ["2018-07-18", 0.815], ["2018-07-18", 0.814], ["2018-07-18", 0.804], ["2018-07-19", 0.802], ["2018-07-19", 0.801], ["2018-07-19", 0.801], ["2018-07-21", 0.8], ["2018-07-21", 0.8], ["2018-07-22", 0.799], ["2018-07-22", 0.799], ["2018-07-22", 0.799], ["2018-07-23", 0.799], ["2018-07-24", 0.798], ["2018-07-24", 0.791], ["2018-07-24", 0.792], ["2018-09-18", 0.788], ["2018-09-19", 0.781], ["2018-09-19", 0.781], ["2018-09-19", 0.773], ["2018-09-20", 0.773], ["2018-09-20", 0.774], ["2018-09-20", 0.772], ["2018-09-21", 0.77], ["2018-09-21", 0.77], ["2018-09-21", 0.766], ["2018-09-22", 0.766], ["2018-09-23", 0.765], ["2018-09-23", 0.762], ["2018-09-23", 0.76], ["2018-09-24", 0.751], ["2018-09-24", 0.748], ["2018-09-24", 0.746], ["2018-09-25", 0.745], ["2018-09-25", 0.745], ["2018-09-25", 0.746], ["2018-09-26", 0.741], ["2018-09-26", 0.741], ["2018-09-26", 0.74], ["2018-09-26", 0.739], ["2018-09-27", 0.737], ["2018-09-27", 0.735], ["2018-09-28", 0.741], ["2018-09-28", 0.742], ["2018-09-28", 0.742], ["2018-09-29", 0.742], ["2018-09-30", 0.735], ["2018-09-30", 0.736], ["2018-10-01", 0.736], ["2018-10-01", 0.736], ["2018-10-01", 0.734], ["2018-10-02", 0.732], ["2018-10-02", 0.731], ["2018-10-03", 0.731], ["2018-10-03", 0.731], ["2018-10-04", 0.734], ["2018-10-04", 0.733], ["2018-10-05", 0.73], ["2018-10-05", 0.728], ["2018-10-05", 0.729], ["2018-10-06", 0.744], ["2018-10-06", 0.757], ["2018-10-06", 0.76]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1010/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | US Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, considered one of the court's more moderate/swing votes, recently announced his impending retirement. This means President Trump will have the chance to propose a second Supreme Court nominee, which will likely shape the face of constitutionality questions for many years to come.
While it's been argued at both the National Review and 538 that Justices are far less polarized than one might think, some fear that a Trump replacement could trample individual rights for years to come. Others, of course, believe it could rein in government overreach for years to come. One can only be certain of death and taxes.
This question resolves positively only if Trump nominates a new Supreme Court Justice after July 1, 2018 and that nominee is approved by the Senate by end of day Dec 31, 2018, Pacific Time. | true | 2018-10-25 | Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-06-24 | 2018-06-28 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-03", 0.7], ["2018-07-11", 0.303], ["2018-07-21", 0.293], ["2018-08-03", 0.301], ["2018-08-12", 0.29], ["2018-09-01", 0.287], ["2018-09-12", 0.285], ["2018-09-25", 0.288], ["2018-10-09", 0.279], ["2018-10-16", 0.279], ["2018-10-29", 0.276], ["2018-11-09", 0.278], ["2018-11-19", 0.286], ["2018-12-15", 0.286], ["2019-01-01", 0.282], ["2019-01-04", 0.296], ["2019-01-29", 0.295], ["2019-02-18", 0.295], ["2019-03-05", 0.295], ["2019-03-18", 0.294], ["2019-04-02", 0.294], ["2019-04-30", 0.294], ["2019-05-14", 0.293], ["2019-05-23", 0.313], ["2019-06-03", 0.305], ["2019-06-18", 0.309], ["2019-07-31", 0.306], ["2019-08-07", 0.303], ["2019-09-20", 0.303], ["2019-10-02", 0.302], ["2019-10-14", 0.295], ["2019-10-27", 0.295], ["2019-12-09", 0.294], ["2019-12-19", 0.291], ["2019-12-29", 0.286], ["2020-01-14", 0.289], ["2020-02-23", 0.289], ["2020-03-08", 0.292], ["2020-03-17", 0.29], ["2020-03-28", 0.288], ["2020-04-05", 0.288], ["2020-04-27", 0.288], ["2020-05-19", 0.287], ["2020-06-01", 0.287], ["2020-06-18", 0.287], ["2020-06-29", 0.283], ["2020-07-12", 0.275], ["2020-08-10", 0.274], ["2020-08-19", 0.271], ["2020-09-16", 0.271], ["2020-09-30", 0.28], ["2020-10-09", 0.28], ["2020-10-20", 0.282], ["2020-10-28", 0.281], ["2020-11-10", 0.28], ["2020-11-27", 0.284], ["2021-01-02", 0.282], ["2021-01-13", 0.281], ["2021-01-22", 0.28], ["2021-02-01", 0.281], ["2021-02-16", 0.28], ["2021-02-26", 0.281], ["2021-03-14", 0.277], ["2021-03-28", 0.278], ["2021-04-05", 0.282], ["2021-04-15", 0.281], ["2021-05-06", 0.282], ["2021-05-19", 0.282], ["2021-05-31", 0.286], ["2021-06-09", 0.288], ["2021-06-17", 0.287], ["2021-07-08", 0.287], ["2021-07-24", 0.288], ["2021-08-13", 0.288], ["2021-08-26", 0.288], ["2021-09-10", 0.307], ["2021-09-21", 0.311], ["2021-10-01", 0.315], ["2021-10-12", 0.315], ["2021-10-20", 0.315], ["2021-11-02", 0.315], ["2021-11-15", 0.315], ["2021-11-22", 0.317], ["2021-12-05", 0.363], ["2021-12-17", 0.457], ["2021-12-29", 0.458], ["2022-01-05", 0.461], ["2022-01-18", 0.462], ["2022-01-28", 0.461], ["2022-02-11", 0.461], ["2022-02-23", 0.462], ["2022-03-08", 0.463], ["2022-03-15", 0.469], ["2022-03-27", 0.469], ["2022-04-08", 0.47], ["2022-04-21", 0.474], ["2022-05-07", 0.549], ["2022-05-22", 0.569], ["2022-06-06", 0.574], ["2022-06-21", 0.576], ["2022-06-24", 0.58]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1011/ | Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that Roe v. Wade, the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned.
Roe established the individual right to abortion in 1973 during the first 2 trimesters of a pregnancy (approximately 2 weeks). Roe was later altered in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, reducing the individual's right to abortion to when it is not viable to safely deliver the fetus, which is commonly around 24 weeks of pregnancy, though the earliest patient to survive an early-term birth was born at 21 weeks and 5 days. Casey also found that states may not pass laws placing an undue burden for "the purpose or effect of placing a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus" | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positively if, between July 1 2018 to July 31 2028, the US Supreme Court overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point before the date of fetal viability.
By "banning elective abortions", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients, or the revocation of medical or professional licenses. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.
[Dec 10, 2021] casens -- This question's resolution text has been altered, see the fine print for the original.
Fine Print
Before Dec 10, 2021, the question's resolution terms were as follows:
We specify this as follows. By 2028-07-31, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date,
1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:
1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.
1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.
1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).
1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.
AND
2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).
*In case the term "convicted" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the le1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:
1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.
1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.
1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).
1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.
AND
2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).
*In case the term "convicted" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. | true | 2028-07-31 | Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-11-26 | 2018-06-30 | ["http://thelongestswim.com/logbook/"] | binary | [["2018-07-03", 0.5], ["2018-07-03", 0.5], ["2018-07-04", 0.52], ["2018-07-04", 0.52], ["2018-07-04", 0.546], ["2018-07-05", 0.549], ["2018-07-05", 0.563], ["2018-07-05", 0.555], ["2018-07-06", 0.509], ["2018-07-06", 0.502], ["2018-07-06", 0.495], ["2018-07-07", 0.489], ["2018-07-07", 0.489], ["2018-07-07", 0.48], ["2018-07-08", 0.48], ["2018-07-08", 0.482], ["2018-07-10", 0.479], ["2018-07-10", 0.469], ["2018-07-12", 0.468], ["2018-07-13", 0.476], ["2018-07-14", 0.476], ["2018-07-16", 0.478], ["2018-07-17", 0.466], ["2018-07-17", 0.471], ["2018-07-17", 0.471], ["2018-07-18", 0.459], ["2018-07-18", 0.459], ["2018-07-19", 0.453], ["2018-07-20", 0.459], ["2018-07-20", 0.458], ["2018-07-21", 0.458], ["2018-07-21", 0.456], ["2018-07-22", 0.458], ["2018-07-23", 0.458], ["2018-07-26", 0.458], ["2018-07-26", 0.471], ["2018-07-27", 0.464], ["2018-07-27", 0.464], ["2018-07-28", 0.46], ["2018-07-30", 0.461], ["2018-07-30", 0.461], ["2018-08-01", 0.463], ["2018-08-01", 0.456], ["2018-08-02", 0.456], ["2018-08-03", 0.463], ["2018-08-06", 0.464], ["2018-08-06", 0.465], ["2018-08-08", 0.465], ["2018-08-09", 0.467], ["2018-08-10", 0.467], ["2018-08-10", 0.467], ["2018-08-12", 0.462], ["2018-08-13", 0.465], ["2018-08-14", 0.462], ["2018-08-14", 0.461], ["2018-08-19", 0.466], ["2018-08-26", 0.466], ["2018-08-27", 0.467], ["2018-08-29", 0.468], ["2018-09-08", 0.468], ["2018-09-10", 0.468], ["2018-09-10", 0.476], ["2018-09-11", 0.478], ["2018-09-11", 0.477], ["2018-09-13", 0.477], ["2018-09-17", 0.479], ["2018-09-19", 0.48], ["2018-09-26", 0.48], ["2018-09-28", 0.48], ["2018-10-01", 0.483], ["2018-10-02", 0.483], ["2018-10-02", 0.485], ["2018-10-06", 0.485], ["2018-10-06", 0.485], ["2018-10-08", 0.482], ["2018-10-09", 0.482], ["2018-10-10", 0.482], ["2018-10-11", 0.483], ["2018-10-15", 0.485], ["2018-10-16", 0.487], ["2018-10-20", 0.488], ["2018-10-22", 0.488], ["2018-10-29", 0.49], ["2018-11-03", 0.489], ["2018-11-03", 0.492], ["2018-11-03", 0.493], ["2018-11-04", 0.501], ["2018-11-05", 0.501], ["2018-11-05", 0.503], ["2018-11-06", 0.505], ["2018-11-06", 0.505], ["2018-11-07", 0.509], ["2018-11-08", 0.507], ["2018-11-09", 0.512], ["2018-11-09", 0.51], ["2018-11-11", 0.51], ["2018-11-12", 0.505], ["2018-11-14", 0.505], ["2018-11-17", 0.505], ["2018-11-23", 0.505], ["2018-11-25", 0.503]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1013/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Benoit Lecomte is an accomplished long-distance swimmer who is attempting to swim from Japan to California in an effort to raise awareness about the environmental impact of plastics and other trash on the world's beaches and oceans.
In 1998, Lecomte swam from Massachusetts to France (roughly 3,700 miles in 73 days) to raise money for cancer research. He will use a similar method in this attempt, with a boat accompanying him for rest periods and eating/drinking. On a daily basis, Lecomte expects to cover about 40 miles in 8 hours. It will take him more than 4 months to complete the 5,500 mile journey.
For this question to resolve positively, Lecomte must arrive in San Francisco having completed the journey in one attempt and by way of a "staged swim", in which each day of swimming begins where the other ends. Daily boat respites and breaks resulting from emergency situations (weather, shark encounters, injury, illness, safety equipment faults, etc) shall not disqualify as long as the staged swim continues. Certification from Guinness or any other governing body not required. Lecomte must swim under his own power at all times.
Lecomte can be tracked here: http://thelongestswim.com/logbook/ | true | 2019-06-05 | Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean? | metaculus | 0 |
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OpenAI's Dota 2 player system has been defeating top humans in 1-on-1 play for about a year, and OpenAI has recently announced that its Dota2-playing system had begun to beat skilled human teams on 5-on-5 team play, a significantly larger challenge.
OpenAI now feels ready for the big-time, and will enter its 5-player system in "The International", a major Dota 2 championshop with a $20M purse. There's a site set up for this and everything.
According to this blog post they will compete at The International—but prior to that, they'll benchmark their progress by playing against "top players" on August 5th. | Sports | Will OpenAI's system beat the top players on August 5th?
The question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match occurs under. If there is a single game, resolution will be based on that game. If there are multiple games it will be based on winning the majority of the games; in case of a tie it resolves ambiguous.
A sister question will concern "The International" once more details become available.
(Edit 7/19/18: Updated to reflect the match's new date) | true | 2018-08-03 | Will OpenAI's machine system defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August? | metaculus | 1 |
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A giant dust storm has enveloped the entire planet of Mars, with dust clouds reaching up to 40 miles high, NASA announced Wednesday. The dust storm has silenced NASA's solar-powered rover Opportunity since last week, by obscuring the sun. The robot rover has gone to sleep because its solar panels are unable to provide or recharge its batteries. But NASA's other Martian rover, Curiosity, is nuclear powered and is mostly unaffected by the dust storm.
In case you want to read amazing details about these beastly storms, check this video out.
Will the plucky rover known as Opportunity make it out of this storm alive?
Here's what Space.com has to report:
the dust is incredibly thick over Endeavour Crater — thicker than anything Opportunity has dealt with before, mission team members said. Opportunity is now enduring complete darkness 24 hours a day, and its power levels have dropped precipitously as a result — from 645 watt-hours on June 2 to about 22 watt-hours on Sunday (June 10)
As a result, says Ray Arvidson, an investigator on the rover mission, "Opportunity is now likely in a low-power mode, "in which the rover wakes up, checks its power and, if too low, just goes back to sleep again," according to Inside Outer Space.
"At some point as the storm subsides, Opportunity should wake up, decide it has enough power to transmit a signal from its low-gain antenna, saying, 'I am awake and OK, but I am going back to sleep again,'" he added. "This should happen every sol until it decides to go back to full operation."
Question resolves positive if NASA manages to make contact again with Opportunity after the storm passes. Godspeed, little rover! | true | 2018-08-05 | Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes? | metaculus | 0 |
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It is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. Very importantly I'm hereby directing the Department of Defense and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a space force as the sixth branch of the armed forces, that is a big statement... We are going to have the Air Force and we are going to have the space force, separate but equal, it is going to be something.
Bloomberg's editorial board seemed open to the idea, writing:
plenty of critics have argued — persuasively — that the current arrangement is impeding much-needed change and innovation. Could Trump’s Space Force, or something like it, do better? Several studies, dating back to 2001, suggest that it could. If organized with care and forethought, such a force could clarify accountability, accelerate decision-making, rationalize the procurement process, improve recruitment, and ease pressure on the broader Air Force, which is heavily burdened with more traditional responsibilities.
Not everyone agrees. Writing for Slate, Fred Kaplan argues:
The special thing about satellites and the organizations that control or operate them (Air Force Space Command, the NRO, and other smaller outfits) is that they are, by nature, subordinate to other branches of the armed forces—to wars that are fought not in outer space but on Earth or in the atmosphere. Space assets service air, naval, and ground forces by providing them with intelligence, communications, and guidance for missiles and smart bombs. Placing these vital assets under the command of a four-star general in a separate service—and imbuing its officers and enlisted personnel with the élan of an elite force that doesn’t answer to the other services of the armed forces and that, in fact, competes with them for resources—would run counter to the nation’s needs.
In any event, for the Space Force to materialize, Congress would have to authorize and fund it.
Will legislators do so prior to the 2020 presidential election?
Resolution is positive if a bill is passed by congress and signed by the President by Nov 1. 2020 that formally establishes a new branch of the military focusing on space. | true | 2020-01-01 | Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election? | metaculus | 1 |
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The renegade billionaire hopes to blaze a path to the future. As Wait But Why's Tim Urban explained in an epic blog post nearly 3 years ago--based on extensive interviews with Musk:
The overarching mission wasn’t to build the biggest car company in the world. It was to solve a bunch of long-standing EV shortcomings and build such an insanely great car that it could change everyone’s perception of what an EV could be and force the world’s big car companies to have to develop their own line of great EVs. Their end goal, and the company’s official mission, was “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.” In other words, EVs are gonna happen, but we’re gonna make them happen a lot sooner. Sooner, in this case, is important, because it means carbon emissions decrease earlier and the long term effects of them are much less damaging.
Since that time, a lot has happened in the world of EVs.
Tesla built and launched its Gigafactory to create next gen batteries at scale.
Many conventional companies have joined Tesla to ramp up production of EVs, with Forbes reporting that "The electrification of the transport system is set to accelerate in the late 2020s... Electric vehicle sales will surge thanks to tumbling battery costs and increasing scale in manufacturing."
Tesla's Model 3 has gotten record distance on a single charge, despite problems.
On the other hand, perhaps surprisingly, Tesla is struggling to be a profitable company. As the New York Times reported on May 1, Tesla is still burning cash to stay afloat.
But the company's billionaire leader insists that Tesla will be profitable as soon as Q3 of 2018. Per Techcrunch:
On Tesla’s last call to discuss the company’s quarterly results with Wall Street analysts, Musk said that the company would begin generating “positive quarterly operating income on a sustained basis,” and said he was “cautiously optimistic” that the company would be GAAP profitable.
What do you think? Question resolves positive if Musk's prediction comes true and Tesla posts a positive Q3 in 2018; negative if negative. | true | 2018-11-02 | Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
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As Olympic.org reports:
By the time he retired at Rio 2106 at the age of 31, Michael Phelps had collected a total of 23 golds, three silvers and two bronzes at the Olympics, a record-breaking haul that looks unlikely to be bettered for many years to come.
Following his dominating performance in 2016 in Rio, he announced his retirement from the sport. In no uncertain terms.
The thing is, he already retired once from the sport--in no uncertain terms--in 2012!
So was Rio really it? Is he seriously going to stay out of the pool in 2020 in Toyko?
Check out discussion along these lines here.
Fellow Olympian Apolo Ohno expressed doubts in an interview in February:"I think [he'll compete in 2020], it's just my personal opinion."
In the wake of 2016, teammate Ryan Lochte also held out hope, saying "I guarantee he will be there... Michael, I'll see you in Tokyo."
Despite more recent statements to the contrary, Phelps left the door open to return in an interview with the Baltimore Sun last August, saying: "We'll see if I get that itch again."
The report ended with these teasing lines: "Is he really finished? Stay tuned."
Question resolves positive if Phelps announces that he's coming out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics before January 1, 2019. | true | 2018-12-31 | Will Michael Phelps be tempted out of retirement to compete in the 2020 Olympics? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will at least one cave-trapped Thai teenager enter a pressurized submarine system provided by Musk?
The plan need not work (just be attempted on at least one child), though of course we can all hope it does. | true | 2018-07-15 | Will Elon Musk's kid-sized submarines come to the rescue? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-01 | 2018-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-11", 0.5], ["2018-07-11", 0.35], ["2018-07-12", 0.35], ["2018-07-12", 0.26], ["2018-07-12", 0.264], ["2018-07-13", 0.264], ["2018-07-13", 0.268], ["2018-07-13", 0.262], ["2018-07-14", 0.264], ["2018-07-14", 0.264], ["2018-07-15", 0.252], ["2018-07-15", 0.249], ["2018-07-16", 0.236], ["2018-07-18", 0.236], ["2018-07-18", 0.224], ["2018-07-18", 0.23], ["2018-07-19", 0.236], ["2018-07-19", 0.226], ["2018-07-19", 0.225], ["2018-07-20", 0.218], ["2018-07-20", 0.219], ["2018-07-22", 0.219], ["2018-07-22", 0.223], ["2018-07-22", 0.234], ["2018-07-26", 0.234], ["2018-07-27", 0.226], ["2018-07-28", 0.229], ["2018-07-31", 0.229], ["2018-08-01", 0.226], ["2018-08-01", 0.246], ["2018-08-01", 0.24], ["2018-08-04", 0.24], ["2018-08-05", 0.237], ["2018-08-05", 0.234], ["2018-08-06", 0.233], ["2018-08-06", 0.235], ["2018-08-06", 0.238], ["2018-08-07", 0.238], ["2018-08-08", 0.234], ["2018-08-09", 0.231], ["2018-08-09", 0.231], ["2018-08-10", 0.231], ["2018-08-11", 0.227], ["2018-08-12", 0.221], ["2018-08-12", 0.22], ["2018-08-13", 0.218], ["2018-08-13", 0.218], ["2018-08-16", 0.215], ["2018-08-16", 0.215], ["2018-08-17", 0.216], ["2018-08-17", 0.214], ["2018-08-19", 0.214], ["2018-08-21", 0.211], ["2018-08-21", 0.211], ["2018-08-22", 0.209], ["2018-08-22", 0.209], ["2018-08-24", 0.207], ["2018-08-24", 0.204], ["2018-08-25", 0.203], ["2018-08-25", 0.203], ["2018-08-25", 0.201], ["2018-08-27", 0.198], ["2018-08-28", 0.198], ["2018-08-29", 0.196], ["2018-08-29", 0.194], ["2018-08-29", 0.194], ["2018-08-29", 0.194], ["2018-08-30", 0.194], ["2018-08-31", 0.192], ["2018-09-01", 0.192], ["2018-09-02", 0.191], ["2018-09-03", 0.192], ["2018-09-03", 0.191], ["2018-09-04", 0.191], ["2018-09-05", 0.19], ["2018-09-05", 0.186], ["2018-09-06", 0.186], ["2018-09-06", 0.187], ["2018-09-06", 0.183], ["2018-09-07", 0.182], ["2018-09-07", 0.18], ["2018-09-08", 0.179], ["2018-09-08", 0.179], ["2018-09-09", 0.176], ["2018-09-09", 0.171], ["2018-09-09", 0.17], ["2018-09-09", 0.17], ["2018-09-10", 0.165], ["2018-09-10", 0.162], ["2018-09-10", 0.162], ["2018-09-10", 0.164], ["2018-09-11", 0.165], ["2018-09-11", 0.164], ["2018-09-11", 0.162], ["2018-09-12", 0.165], ["2018-09-12", 0.163], ["2018-09-13", 0.162], ["2018-09-14", 0.162], ["2018-09-14", 0.161], ["2018-09-14", 0.165], ["2018-09-15", 0.164]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1049/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The 2-octallion ton ball of plasma that we cutely call "the sun" is constantly seething. With some regularity, the sun "flares." Per NASA:
A solar flare is an intense burst of radiation coming from the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. Flares are our solar system’s largest explosive events. They are seen as bright areas on the sun and they can last from minutes to hours.
As you might expect, not all flares are created equal. Scientists clasify them according to intensity. Per convention, the smallest flare class is "A"; then we have "B" and "C"; for some reason, we skip to "M"; and, lastly, we finish with the fearsome "X", which, among other things, can knock out radio communications around the world.
X-Class flares are the rarest. And they can be dangerous to Earthlings and our technology, especially if the flare's business end points right at us. Here's a description of a mega flare (technically, an X28 on the scale) that blasted forth from the sun in November, 2003:
The effects on Earth were many: Radio blackouts disrupted communications. Solar protons penetrated Earth's upper atmosphere, exposing astronauts and some air travelers to radiation doses equal to a medical chest X-ray. Auroras appeared all over the world--in Florida, Texas, Australia and many other places where they are seldom seen.
X-Class flares are uncommon, but not that uncommon. Last September, for instance, saw a spate of them.
What do you think? Will the sun blast off another X-Class flare before October 1, 2018? (For a positive resolution, SpaceWeatherLive site must report the flare as X-class. | true | 2018-09-15 | Will there be an X-Class solar flare before October 1, 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-16 | 2018-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-19", 0.5], ["2018-08-19", 0.295], ["2018-08-19", 0.587], ["2018-08-19", 0.587], ["2018-08-19", 0.668], ["2018-08-19", 0.797], ["2018-08-19", 0.797], ["2018-08-19", 0.805], ["2018-08-20", 0.82], ["2018-08-20", 0.811], ["2018-08-20", 0.796], ["2018-08-20", 0.811], ["2018-08-20", 0.814], ["2018-08-21", 0.811], ["2018-08-23", 0.819], ["2018-08-23", 0.823], ["2018-08-24", 0.825], ["2018-08-25", 0.825], ["2018-08-25", 0.825], ["2018-08-25", 0.817], ["2018-08-29", 0.817], ["2018-08-29", 0.81], ["2018-09-01", 0.805], ["2018-09-02", 0.78], ["2018-09-02", 0.779], ["2018-09-05", 0.779], ["2018-09-05", 0.773], ["2018-09-06", 0.767], ["2018-09-06", 0.767], ["2018-09-07", 0.768], ["2018-09-09", 0.768], ["2018-09-09", 0.765], ["2018-09-10", 0.765], ["2018-09-10", 0.765], ["2018-09-11", 0.762], ["2018-09-11", 0.766], ["2018-09-13", 0.761], ["2018-09-14", 0.761], ["2018-09-14", 0.766], ["2018-09-16", 0.766], ["2018-09-16", 0.764], ["2018-09-17", 0.758], ["2018-09-18", 0.755], ["2018-09-18", 0.755], ["2018-09-19", 0.758], ["2018-09-20", 0.753], ["2018-09-20", 0.75], ["2018-09-20", 0.75], ["2018-09-22", 0.748], ["2018-09-27", 0.746], ["2018-09-27", 0.743], ["2018-09-28", 0.743], ["2018-09-29", 0.743], ["2018-09-30", 0.744], ["2018-10-01", 0.744], ["2018-10-01", 0.744], ["2018-10-02", 0.744], ["2018-10-03", 0.745], ["2018-10-04", 0.744], ["2018-10-04", 0.744], ["2018-10-04", 0.745], ["2018-10-04", 0.747], ["2018-10-04", 0.746], ["2018-10-05", 0.748], ["2018-10-05", 0.749], ["2018-10-06", 0.749], ["2018-10-06", 0.751], ["2018-10-08", 0.751], ["2018-10-08", 0.751], ["2018-10-08", 0.752], ["2018-10-08", 0.757], ["2018-10-08", 0.757], ["2018-10-08", 0.758], ["2018-10-08", 0.76], ["2018-10-09", 0.763], ["2018-10-09", 0.763], ["2018-10-09", 0.766], ["2018-10-10", 0.766], ["2018-10-10", 0.767], ["2018-10-12", 0.769], ["2018-10-12", 0.769], ["2018-10-14", 0.769], ["2018-10-15", 0.77], ["2018-10-16", 0.772], ["2018-10-23", 0.771], ["2018-10-24", 0.772], ["2018-10-24", 0.77], ["2018-10-25", 0.772], ["2018-10-25", 0.772], ["2018-10-25", 0.771], ["2018-10-26", 0.771], ["2018-10-28", 0.773], ["2018-10-28", 0.773], ["2018-10-29", 0.778], ["2018-10-29", 0.778], ["2018-10-30", 0.778], ["2018-10-30", 0.777], ["2018-10-31", 0.777], ["2018-10-31", 0.783], ["2018-10-31", 0.784], ["2018-10-31", 0.784]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1050/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In early June, IBM together with the Department of Energy launched Summit, the world's newest biggest supercomputer. It processes at a mind-numbing 200,000 trillion calculations per second.
Per TechCrunch:
Summit... features 4,608 compute servers with two 22-core IBM Power9 chips and six Nvidia Tesla V100 GPUs each. In total, the system also features over 10 petabytes of memory.
For now, Summit stands at the top (so to speak) of the TOP500 list. But international competition in the supercomputer realm is fierce. As GCN reported last year:
China’s dominance on the recent [top supercomputer] lists indicates it is investing heavily in high-performance computing as supercomputers become a vital tool for simulating everything from nuclear explosions to medicine.
Meanwhile, in early 2018, the EU announced it was joining the party. Engadget reported:
Buying and developing supercomputing technology is crazy expensive, with exascale machines expected to cost up to a half billion dollars. To buy and develop them, Europe will spend $486 million itself, with the balance of the $1.2 billion coming from member states. It plans to first acquire machines that can compete with current top supercomputers, then develop its own exascale machines by 2023.
It seems unlikely that another country (e.g. China) will break Summit's record in the next few months. But it also seems inevitable that Summit will eventually be dethroned.
Will Summit continue to hold the top spot on the upcoming November Top500 list? (the official list comparing the world's supercomputers) | true | 2018-11-01 | Will the IBM's Summit remain the top dog in supercomputing power? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-09-09 | 2018-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-07-15", 0.3], ["2018-07-15", 0.203], ["2018-07-15", 0.233], ["2018-07-16", 0.188], ["2018-07-16", 0.168], ["2018-07-16", 0.168], ["2018-07-16", 0.173], ["2018-07-17", 0.166], ["2018-07-17", 0.169], ["2018-07-17", 0.169], ["2018-07-17", 0.164], ["2018-07-18", 0.162], ["2018-07-18", 0.16], ["2018-07-18", 0.17], ["2018-07-18", 0.16], ["2018-07-19", 0.16], ["2018-07-20", 0.151], ["2018-07-20", 0.14], ["2018-07-21", 0.138], ["2018-07-21", 0.136], ["2018-07-22", 0.135], ["2018-07-22", 0.14], ["2018-07-23", 0.139], ["2018-07-23", 0.139], ["2018-07-23", 0.139], ["2018-07-24", 0.138], ["2018-07-24", 0.139], ["2018-07-25", 0.14], ["2018-07-26", 0.139], ["2018-07-26", 0.141], ["2018-07-26", 0.144], ["2018-07-27", 0.144], ["2018-07-28", 0.141], ["2018-07-28", 0.143], ["2018-07-28", 0.143], ["2018-07-29", 0.14], ["2018-07-30", 0.14], ["2018-07-30", 0.139], ["2018-07-30", 0.14], ["2018-07-31", 0.14], ["2018-07-31", 0.134], ["2018-08-01", 0.135], ["2018-08-01", 0.135], ["2018-08-01", 0.134], ["2018-08-02", 0.133], ["2018-08-02", 0.131], ["2018-08-02", 0.129], ["2018-08-03", 0.127], ["2018-08-03", 0.127], ["2018-08-04", 0.125], ["2018-08-04", 0.125], ["2018-08-05", 0.125], ["2018-08-06", 0.125], ["2018-08-06", 0.126], ["2018-08-07", 0.127], ["2018-08-07", 0.127], ["2018-08-08", 0.125], ["2018-08-08", 0.123], ["2018-08-10", 0.123], ["2018-08-11", 0.13], ["2018-08-11", 0.128], ["2018-08-12", 0.128], ["2018-08-13", 0.128], ["2018-08-13", 0.127], ["2018-08-14", 0.127], ["2018-08-14", 0.123], ["2018-08-14", 0.123], ["2018-08-16", 0.121], ["2018-08-16", 0.121], ["2018-08-16", 0.12], ["2018-08-19", 0.12], ["2018-08-20", 0.119], ["2018-08-21", 0.119], ["2018-08-22", 0.118], ["2018-08-24", 0.118], ["2018-08-25", 0.117], ["2018-08-26", 0.115], ["2018-08-27", 0.115], ["2018-08-29", 0.119], ["2018-08-29", 0.122], ["2018-08-30", 0.12], ["2018-08-31", 0.118], ["2018-08-31", 0.118], ["2018-08-31", 0.116], ["2018-09-01", 0.116], ["2018-09-02", 0.116], ["2018-09-02", 0.123], ["2018-09-02", 0.124], ["2018-09-03", 0.122], ["2018-09-03", 0.12], ["2018-09-04", 0.12], ["2018-09-05", 0.118], ["2018-09-05", 0.118], ["2018-09-05", 0.117], ["2018-09-06", 0.116], ["2018-09-06", 0.115], ["2018-09-06", 0.112], ["2018-09-06", 0.107], ["2018-09-07", 0.103], ["2018-09-07", 0.094], ["2018-09-07", 0.087]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1075/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015 (The Washington Post, Al-Monitor). The United States announced its withdrawal from the deal on 8 May 2018 (NY Times). | true | 2018-09-07 | Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing? | metaculus | 0 |
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It is possible, though, that the negative reaction he has received around his Helsinki meeting is different in kind, and will unsettle some of his staunchest supporters.
As of this moment (8:30pm PT on July 16, 2018) Trump's approval rating on the fivethirtyeight.com aggregated Approval Rating Page is 42.1%.
It takes on the order of several days for new incoming polls to be received and aggregated to the point where they begin to affect the rolling aggregate. So we will determine the answer based on a reading two weeks from now.
This question will resolve positively if the approval rating reflected on this page is less than 40.0% (representing an apparent decline of 2.1 points over two weeks) anytime during the day of July 30, 2018. | true | 2018-07-22 | Will Donald Trump's approval rating decline noticeably in the wake of the Helsinki Summit? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will President Donald Trump be reelected for a second term in 2020? This means that he will
(a) not be removed beforehand,
(b) actually run for a second term, and
(c) legally defeat other presidential nominees.
Resolution is based on consensus major-media declaration that enough states have been called for or against Trump to give more than 50% of the total electors to one candidate.
It does not imply that Trump will necessarily serve a second term, even if elected, and in particular does not account for events that may occur between election night and swearing in.
Resolution is ambiguous if a major media call has not been made as of one week after the election; in this case one or more alternative questions will be launched.
If Trump dies or is removed from office by any means prior to the election, question resolves negative, and will retroactively close one week prior to the takeover of the Presidential office by Pence or another party.
If Trump publicly declares that he will not seek re-election, question resolves negative on the date when it becomes essentially impossible for him to become the Republican nominee, with a retroactive closing date 1 day prior to the public declaration. | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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To make a decent mission and to gather as much data as possible, a probe that NASA could send has to carry with it many scientific instruments. The more instruments there are, the heavier the probe is (and more expensive). The heavier the probe is, the more powerful the rocket to send it has to be. The more powerful the rocket is, the more expensive the mission is. Money and weight are the two main factors to make a mission to space.
These days, NASA's budget is more and more reduced. It was 0.47% of the federal budget in 2017 whereas it could reach 4.41% during the Apollo era. Only a few missions can be made, and most of them concern the study of Earth, stars, or the internal solar system. Even though some missions plan to study Jupiter, its moons, and sometimes Saturn, not a single mission, not even as a project, is planified to study space beyond the orbit of Saturn at the moment. The last and only mission that studied Uranus and Neptune was Voyager 2 and New Horizons studied Pluto for a few hours after a 9 years journey through space.
But earlier this year, the Falcon Heavy was launched for the first time. SpaceX's new heavy launcher, and current most powerful rocket is capable of launching 63,800 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and 3,500 kg to Pluto, for a cost of 150M $, whereas the Delta IV heavy, the previous most powerful rocket, could only launch 28 790 kg to LEO for a cost of 400M $. The price of the kg in space is almost 6 times lower for the Falcon Heavy than the Delta IV Heavy (2351 $/KG → FH -- 13893 $/KG → D4H).
Therefore, the Falcon Heavy offers to NASA and other agencies the possibility to multiply its capacities of studying space and for a lower cost.
Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy within the next 5 years?
resolves positive if by end of July 2023, a credible media or other announcement indicates that a contract has been signed with SpaceX as one party, for the purpose of a scientific payload being launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket. "Scientific payload" here shall be taken to be a payload paid for by a nonprofit or government agency with scientific but not military, communication, etc. application. | true | 2020-07-31 | Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023? | metaculus | 1 |
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The UK is due to leave the EU in March of 2019. This date could be delayed, if all the EU member countries agree. The UK's exit could probably be abandoned, if the government so chose. This question asks whether the UK will leave on something like the original timescale.
Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?
This question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:
The UK is no longer a member of the EU. (Positive resolution.)
2020-07-01 is reached. (Negative resolution.)
There is no longer a nation called the United Kingdom. (Ambiguous resolution.)
There is no longer an international organization called the European Union. (Ambiguous resolution.)
A relevant other question is Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019? but these resolve differently if there is a short delay, or (as I interpret the other question) if there is a "no-deal" Brexit. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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Targaryen is one of the more heroic characters and a potential monarch. On the other hand, the show is known for killing protagonists and she has several strong competitors.
Will Daenerys Targaryen die?
The question resolves positively if Targaryen dies in season eight, even if she is later resurrected or turned into a wight or a white walker. | true | 2019-04-01 | Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones? | metaculus | 1 |
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Once again, we shall be using Google Trends and will be looking at the Topic of Veganism. Note that this is to be differentiated from the Search Term 'Veganism' and is the Worldwide interest, rather than just the interest in the United States.
It is asked:
Will the interest in Veganism fail to register a monthly peak that beats the current record set in January 2018 prior to 2020?
AND
Will there be at least one monthly peak (or rather trough) with an interest less than half of that of January 2018 (<50) prior to 2020?
A positive resolution requires both questions to be answered in the affirmative. Note that the last time (as of the writing of this question) that there was a monthly peak/trough with a value less than 50 was September 2015. The question shall not be closed prior to the set closing time, even if negative resolution is triggered. | true | 2018-12-31 | Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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By law, SCOTUS reconvenes in early October, allowing at least three full months for the process to conclude. Kavanaugh has already provided thousands of pages of documents [for review.] (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/21/kav…)
Over the last 42 years, excluding nominees like Merrick Garland who did not receive a vote, the confirmation of a Court nominee has taken an average of 67 days Kavanaugh faces the lowest public approval figures of any nominee in more than a decade and considerable opposition from Democratic leaders.
Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018? Kavanaugh need not be the confirmed Justice for question to resolve as positive. | true | 2018-08-29 | Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
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So far, the only major candidate to have declared candidacy for the Democratic party nomination is John Delaney, a Congressman from Maryland. That's no surprise, since in the run-up to the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy on April 12, 2015. Donald Trump formally began his campaign two months later, on June 16. Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy on the 29th of April.
Still, it's a fair bet that many of the big names will be in the running early on, including Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, and perhaps even wild cards such as Oprah Winfrey, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, and Joe Biden. But few potential nominees are generating as many headlines right now as Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, who for the purposes of this question, are the frontrunners for the nomination.
Will one of Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election? | true | 2020-03-03 | Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-24 | 2018-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-10", 0.455], ["2018-08-10", 0.545], ["2018-08-10", 0.548], ["2018-08-11", 0.513], ["2018-08-11", 0.495], ["2018-08-11", 0.491], ["2018-08-11", 0.491], ["2018-08-12", 0.477], ["2018-08-12", 0.477], ["2018-08-13", 0.455], ["2018-08-13", 0.457], ["2018-08-13", 0.434], ["2018-08-13", 0.434], ["2018-08-13", 0.434], ["2018-08-13", 0.434], ["2018-08-14", 0.426], ["2018-08-14", 0.421], ["2018-08-14", 0.4], ["2018-08-15", 0.396], ["2018-08-15", 0.396], ["2018-08-16", 0.408], ["2018-08-16", 0.405], ["2018-08-16", 0.386], ["2018-08-17", 0.38], ["2018-08-17", 0.368], ["2018-08-17", 0.361], ["2018-08-17", 0.363], ["2018-08-17", 0.356], ["2018-08-17", 0.363], ["2018-08-17", 0.365], ["2018-08-18", 0.363], ["2018-08-18", 0.366], ["2018-08-18", 0.363], ["2018-08-19", 0.375], ["2018-08-19", 0.369], ["2018-08-19", 0.366], ["2018-08-20", 0.364], ["2018-08-20", 0.358], ["2018-08-21", 0.349], ["2018-08-21", 0.348], ["2018-08-21", 0.339], ["2018-08-21", 0.342], ["2018-08-22", 0.335], ["2018-08-22", 0.335], ["2018-08-22", 0.328], ["2018-08-22", 0.328], ["2018-08-23", 0.323], ["2018-08-23", 0.318], ["2018-08-24", 0.321], ["2018-08-24", 0.319], ["2018-08-24", 0.319], ["2018-08-24", 0.327], ["2018-08-25", 0.323], ["2018-08-25", 0.322], ["2018-08-26", 0.318], ["2018-08-26", 0.325], ["2018-08-26", 0.324], ["2018-08-26", 0.321], ["2018-08-27", 0.321], ["2018-08-27", 0.318], ["2018-08-27", 0.317], ["2018-08-27", 0.313], ["2018-08-27", 0.31], ["2018-08-28", 0.309], ["2018-08-28", 0.307], ["2018-08-28", 0.286], ["2018-08-28", 0.284], ["2018-08-28", 0.283], ["2018-08-28", 0.283], ["2018-08-29", 0.282], ["2018-08-29", 0.281], ["2018-08-29", 0.279], ["2018-08-29", 0.276], ["2018-08-29", 0.278], ["2018-08-29", 0.277], ["2018-08-29", 0.272], ["2018-08-30", 0.281], ["2018-08-30", 0.281], ["2018-08-30", 0.28], ["2018-08-31", 0.275], ["2018-08-31", 0.276], ["2018-09-01", 0.277], ["2018-09-01", 0.279], ["2018-09-01", 0.281], ["2018-09-02", 0.285], ["2018-09-02", 0.295], ["2018-09-02", 0.297], ["2018-09-02", 0.287], ["2018-09-02", 0.292], ["2018-09-02", 0.285], ["2018-09-03", 0.284], ["2018-09-03", 0.284], ["2018-09-03", 0.286], ["2018-09-03", 0.286], ["2018-09-03", 0.282], ["2018-09-04", 0.284], ["2018-09-04", 0.283], ["2018-09-04", 0.283], ["2018-09-04", 0.288], ["2018-09-04", 0.286], ["2018-09-05", 0.285]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1329/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It was previously asked whether the Ebola outbreak that began in early May 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be contained to under 50 cases. That question resolved negative, but the outbreak has now ended.
Regrettably, another Ebola outbreak began on August 1st 2018 in the Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of the writing of this question the outbreak has already claimed 33 lives. People have noted that this outbreak will be harder to fight, as it is taking place in a war zone.
It is asked:Will this outbreak be declared over by the WHO before it claims 100 lives?
Resolution is by credible media report. Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available. | true | 2018-09-05 | Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives? | metaculus | 0 |
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Dominos continue to fall in Mueller's investigation of involvement of Russia in the 2016 presidential election.
As of question writing, Papadopoulos was charged, pled guilty, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. Paul Manafort has been charged but pled innocent. Michael Flynn has pled guilty to a single charge of lying to the FBI, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. On July 16, a Russian gun rights advocate with ties to the NRA, Maria Butina, was charged with crimes of conspiracy. A witness claimed that Butina met with Trump Jr. in mid-2016.
There is widespread sentiment that these relatively "light" charges were filed primarily to acquire cooperation, as well as leave charges on the table that could be brought at a state level in the event of a presidential pardon.
What happens next?
Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. have been at the center of campaign operations from the start, privy to many of the meetings and events that are under investigation. Kushner skated through to Tax Day and Trump Jr. made it past Father's Day without a scratch, but Paul Manafort, of course, was not quite so lucky. And things are getting a little weird in Trumpland. So, we ask:
Will Donald Trump, Jr. be charged with a crime by December 25, 2018?
As for other questions in this series, resolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Donald Trump, Jr. has been formally charged prior to the date in question. | true | 2018-11-29 | Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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Unsurprisingly, we were ahead of the game.
2018 has already witnessed massive progress in the field of AI, and comedian Jordan Peele recently posted this fake (but impressively real-seeming) video of President Obama addressing the nation about the dangers of fake political views. The fake Obama signed off by warning Americans to "stay woke, b****es!" | Politics & Governance | In light of all this, Tim Hwang, director of MIT's Media Lab, posed a bet among colleagues in the field: "[will] someone... create a so-called Deepfake video about a political candidate that receives more than 2 million views before getting debunked by the end of 2018?"
The bet has attracted more than a dozen experts from both technology and social science backgrounds, with Hwang acting as the bookie. Many involved in the wager seem to fall into the “no” camp think Deepfake videos will not make a huge splash during the campaign season for the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. But more agree that the technology could become more problematic by the next U.S. presidential election in 2020.
The boffins may be skeptical, but what do you think?
Will a Deepfake video, qualifying per Hwang's criteria, throw the electorate for a loop during the midterm elections?
Resolution will be decides by the resolution of Hwang's bet, resolving positive if per the article Manhattans are consumed, negative if tropical tiki drinks are, and ambiguous if the bet is not settled by March 2019. (Just in case of delay or the obstacles in consumption of drinks, a credible media report that the bet is settled will also do.) | true | 2018-11-01 | Will a "Deepfake" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views? | metaculus | 0 |
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Brexit Negotiations completed by March 2019 asks whether a Brexit deal will be signed and ratified by March 2019.
Will the UK actually leave the EU asks if Brexit will happen at all.
If no further agreement is reached, the UK will leave the EU by default on 29 March 2019, two years after triggering Article 50. (Importantly, even an extension of this deadline would require an explicit agreement.) This possibility of a "no-deal" Brexit is being discussed with increasing concern, as it would have a radical impact on the economy and many aspects of public life (from free movement to food and medicine supply).
This question asks: Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?
This question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on schedule (March 29 2019 at 23:00 UK time). It resolves negatively if any deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents this (including an agreement to extend the deadline, or to abandon Brexit entirely). Otherwise, it resolves as ambiguous. | true | 2018-12-31 | Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-08-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-09", 0.35], ["2018-08-10", 0.61], ["2018-08-10", 0.601], ["2018-08-11", 0.535], ["2018-08-12", 0.523], ["2018-08-13", 0.538], ["2018-08-13", 0.548], ["2018-08-14", 0.551], ["2018-08-14", 0.553], ["2018-08-15", 0.56], ["2018-08-16", 0.551], ["2018-08-16", 0.551], ["2018-08-17", 0.552], ["2018-08-19", 0.553], ["2018-08-20", 0.55], ["2018-08-22", 0.549], ["2018-08-25", 0.539], ["2018-08-25", 0.43], ["2018-08-26", 0.402], ["2018-08-27", 0.372], ["2018-08-28", 0.362], ["2018-08-29", 0.362], ["2018-08-29", 0.352], ["2018-08-30", 0.345], ["2018-08-31", 0.342], ["2018-09-01", 0.342], ["2018-09-02", 0.341], ["2018-09-03", 0.329], ["2018-09-06", 0.33], ["2018-09-07", 0.326], ["2018-09-09", 0.323], ["2018-09-10", 0.322], ["2018-09-11", 0.316], ["2018-09-12", 0.316], ["2018-09-12", 0.316], ["2018-09-14", 0.316], ["2018-09-17", 0.311], ["2018-09-18", 0.308], ["2018-09-19", 0.309], ["2018-09-23", 0.309], ["2018-09-24", 0.306], ["2018-09-28", 0.302], ["2018-09-28", 0.301], ["2018-09-29", 0.295], ["2018-09-30", 0.29], ["2018-10-01", 0.289], ["2018-10-02", 0.289], ["2018-10-03", 0.286], ["2018-10-04", 0.284], ["2018-10-06", 0.283], ["2018-10-07", 0.283], ["2018-10-08", 0.283], ["2018-10-09", 0.285], ["2018-10-09", 0.285], ["2018-10-11", 0.285], ["2018-10-12", 0.281], ["2018-10-13", 0.281], ["2018-10-15", 0.279], ["2018-10-18", 0.278], ["2018-10-19", 0.278], ["2018-10-20", 0.278], ["2018-10-21", 0.278], ["2018-10-23", 0.277], ["2018-10-24", 0.276], ["2018-10-24", 0.276], ["2018-10-26", 0.276], ["2018-10-30", 0.276], ["2018-10-30", 0.274], ["2018-11-01", 0.273], ["2018-11-07", 0.273], ["2018-11-08", 0.271], ["2018-11-09", 0.266], ["2018-11-10", 0.26], ["2018-11-13", 0.26], ["2018-11-17", 0.26], ["2018-11-21", 0.259], ["2018-11-23", 0.26], ["2018-11-26", 0.261], ["2018-12-01", 0.26], ["2018-12-02", 0.26], ["2018-12-03", 0.26], ["2018-12-04", 0.257], ["2018-12-05", 0.257], ["2018-12-13", 0.258], ["2018-12-13", 0.258], ["2018-12-17", 0.258], ["2018-12-19", 0.258], ["2018-12-19", 0.257], ["2018-12-20", 0.254], ["2018-12-21", 0.252], ["2018-12-22", 0.251], ["2018-12-23", 0.251], ["2018-12-23", 0.256], ["2018-12-24", 0.255], ["2018-12-25", 0.254], ["2018-12-26", 0.251], ["2018-12-27", 0.25], ["2018-12-28", 0.249], ["2018-12-29", 0.249], ["2018-12-30", 0.237], ["2018-12-31", 0.234]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1345/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On August 7th 2018, Elon Musk sent out a series of Tweets stating that he was contemplating taking Tesla private. Musk tweeted, 'Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.' He later tweeted, '… Will be way smoother & less disruptive as a private company. Ends negative propaganda from shorts.' Tesla has been battling significant short selling for months and Musk has been known to feud with short sellers on Twitter.
Musk's Twitter announcement has been widely debated already, with many people expressing skepticism about whether Musk is really intending to take Tesla private. Nevertheless, Tesla's stock surged 10.99% after the Tweets. (Musk's Tweets have been known to move the stock price, but this must be a new record!)
It is asked:Will Tesla be a private company at some point prior to 2020?
The question resolved positive if, on some day prior to January 1st 2020, Tesla is no longer listed on any public stock exchange. Resolution is by credible media report. Should the resolution triggering report be released while the question is still open, the question shall close retroactively one week prior to the time of the release of the report. | true | 2018-12-31 | Will Tesla go private prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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