My new global trends book is out now: The Future of Almost Everything. But it takes at least 20 years to evaluate how good a trends analyst was / is – so what about forecasts made by me in previous books, about what to expect over the following decade or two or three? How did those forecasts measure up? I had to answer that question for myself by re-reading what I wrote in the past about the future, before writing my latest book. Read FREE SAMPLE of The Truth about Almost Everything.

So you can judge for yourself, here are loads of predictions I made in the past - and the book in which they were made plus date. Every one of these is already a reality or looks like it soon could be, as of August 2015....And yes I got some things wrong - not many fortunately. I am going to publish the entire text of Futurewise 1998 edition on this website for a complete picture - but of course on this site already are hundreds of posts and videos going back in some cases over 20 years.

Here's one I got wrong: I thought video streaming would take off - but with more use of live video using smartphones that we have actually seen. Most personal video streaming is of course things like YouTube clips.

Most forecasting errors in my experience are not over WHAT is going to happen as the trend is usually fairly obvious, but by WHEN with questions about real impact. So here goes: how did I see the future of banking, global economy, mobile, smartphones, Internet of Things, Big Data and so on...?

Banking

Banking as it is in 1998 will never survive and will fall in profitability. 1998 - Futurewise

Internet of Things and Smart Homes

All new homes in developed nations will be intelligent by 2010, Smart homes will boast 15-20% energy savings. 1998 - Futurewise

Every device with a power socket will be online. Washing machine will call engineer. Garage doors will open automatically, alarm will be turned off, lights will go on, coffee machine will begin to pour a coffee and so on. 1998 - Futurewise

Power generation in many homes from solar cells and wind in rural areas 1998 – Futurewise

Retail and e-commerce

Basic shopping will be done online and the rest will become a recreational activity – so shopping centres will have to learn from theme parks to reinvent themselves as a leisure experience. 1998 - Futurewise

Loss of millions of small retailers by 2005 as huge chains expand market share, These global chains will increase own brand sales from 15% to 30% by 2010. However many corner shops will survive because of convenience, parking restrictions and so on. We will see a big reversal of the trend to build more out of town superstores, with rapid growth of smaller outlets of the same chains. 1998 - Futurewise

Millions of people will buy and sell from each other directly at cut throat prices for new and second-hand goods, by posting information online, with instant matching of buyers and sellers, creating virtual “street markets”. 1998 – Futurewise

Europe and global economy

Major economic disruptions will occur affecting many nations from a series of very low probability but very high impact events, with combined impact. 1998 - Futurewise

Expect increasingly complicated financial instruments to be developed, which will add to risks of economic instability. 1998 – Futurewise

The next global economic shock is likely to be triggered by events relating to complex financial products (derivatives) and hedge funds, overwhelming markets and governments - 2003 Futurewise

Speed of change will be a fundamental and rapidly growing global risk, with sudden collapse of economies in different nations, related to loss of market confidence. 1998 – Futurewise

Massive future economic tensions in Eurozone in next two decades, which may threaten the Euro project. 1998 – Futurewise

Expect more rioting on the streets as workers untie to vent their anger and frustration at leaders, global institutions and wealthy ethnic minorities. 1998 – Futurewise

Interest rate targeting set at 2% will turn out to be too low because no room to manage the deflationary economic shocks that we are going to see, without risk of tipping over into deflation. Expect central banks to begin relaxing such low targets – 2003 Futurewise 2nd edition

Expect a growing backlash against globalization, blamed by workers in many nations for lack of jobs and economic decline. 1998 – Futurewise

Expect growing anger and resentment against market speculators, blamed for price instabilities of commodities and currencies, and for destabilizing entire nations by over-trading complex financial products, which very few people fully understand. 1998 – Futurewise

More governments will take refuge in larger trading blocs, with more grouped, linked of fused economies by 2020, particularly in Asia, but it will not be entirely effective as speculators also grow rapidly in global power. ASEAN will become stronger as part of this process. 1998 – Futurewise

Outsourcing of manufacturing and service jobs to China and India will go into reverse, as inflation in Asia wipes out the economic argument for doing so, and as companies look to become more agile and reduce risk. 2003 - Futurewise

Many people will be surprised at how rapidly China overtakes the US as the world’s largest economy. Futurewise 1998

Health

AIDS will become a global pandemic which will require massive community mobilization over more than 20 years. Prevention programmes will prove effective, but a vaccine will be almost impossible to make, and certainly will not be developed before 2003. 1987 – Truth about AIDS

Life expectancy will go on increasing rapidly with official forecasts revised every 12 months, over the next two decades and beyond, each of which will create added pressures on pension fund solvency. 1998 - Futurewise

Viruses will be used to treat or prevent diseases such as cancer or cystic fibrosis. Viruses will be used to infect cancer cells and teach them to manufacture chemotherapy agents to poison cancer cells directly – 1993 Genetic Revolution

We will repair damaged tissue using a person’s own cells, grown in the laboratory. – 1993 Genetic Revolution

GM foods – new crops and improved animals - will be important and widely grown. – 1993 Genetic Revolution

Genetically engineered animal and human cells will be used to manufacture next-generation pharma products including new types of vaccines. – 1993 Genetic Revolution

Huge numbers of human genes will be linked to patterns of disease, enabling very accurate predictions to be made about future medical problems in an individual. – 1993 Genetic Revolution

Monoclonal antibodies will become a very important treatment in future for cancer and other conditions. – 1993 Genetic Revolution

Technology to create human cloned embryos in the laboratory for research purposes will become routine. 1993 – Genetic Revolution

We will see many new virus threats emerge around the world by 2020, of which several will trigger global containment efforts. 1998 – Futurewise=

Pensions crisis

Pensions crisis will hit Germany and Italy, while France will be shaken by riots and demonstrations on the streets when governments try to increase retirement age. 1998 – Futurewise

In 20 years time, many older people will carry on working to 75, or 85, or until they drop, with virtually no pension. 1998 – Futurewise

Calls to legalise euthanasis will grow far stronger, with many high profile cases where doctors or family have taken the law into their own hands. 1998 – Futurewise

Personal pension plans and investment funds will be growth markets for those approaching retirement, with increasing questions about charges and performance of actively managed funds. 1998 – Futurewise

Future of Europe

Eurozone will not be sustainable without huge pain. Economic conditions that enable some countries to swim will cause other economies to drown. 1998 - Futurewise

Tribalism will be the downfall of Europe and will feed terrorism. 1998 - Futurewise

Many former Eastern Bloc nations will not stabilize economically until beyond 2008, and even then there will still be a huge gap compared to Western Europe. 1998 - Futurewise

It will take until beyond 2018 for new democratic traditions to take root in former Soviet bloc nations. Economic crisis in these nations may lead to riots, civil disobedience, internal military action or worse. Expect the EU to try to reduce these risks by early inclusion into an enlarged community. 1998 - Futurewise

Enlarging the EU from15 to 25 nations will change it forever, adding to paralysis in decision-making. 1998 - Futurewise

People tribes will sometimes be very hostile to the emerging mega-state. 1998 - Futurewise

One of the final destructions of the United States of Europe will be high unemployment caused by rapidly changing economic conditions and labour force immobility. 1998 - Futurewise

However Europe will benefit in the short term from instability elsewhere. 1998 – Futurewise

Future of the UK

UK will continue to disintegrate in the final death pangs of the English imperialistic dream. Scots will look to Europe as a way of staying together in a broader alliance, rather than close rule from London. 1998 - Futurewise

The English will become increasingly resentful of rulings imposed by the EU. 1998 - Futurewise

As Scotland asserts its own right to govern itself, the English will become more strident about being English. 1998 - Futurewise

UK home ownership will prove a good long term investment, despite market collapse and many pundits claiming the end of the sector as a sound investment. Web posts 2007-2008 on globalchange.com and YouTube.

London will remain very popular and powerful

London will continue to be one of the most popular cities in the world for the next 30 years, and will continue to be dominated by financial service despite aggressive global competition. 1998 - Futurewise

The City will keep top position or near top in cross-border lending, and will fight to remain the largest global centre for Forex. 1998 - Futurewise

Cities will be popular places to live

Hundreds of millions will migrate to large cities: city life will be increasingly popular, despite forecasts by some that cities will decay and die as wealthy people move out to escape crime, congestion, pollution and chaos. 1998 - Futurewise

Politics, tribalism, new patterns of war and rapid rise of new terrorist groups

Political whirlwinds will affect whole continents. 1998 – Futurewise

Rise of new, sinister radical people movements, which are totally convinced of their moral cause and use tribalism, social networking and terrorism – these groups will seize great powers. 1998 – Futurewise

Terrorist groups will multiply rapidly in the third millennium, taking advantage of new technologies to frighten, sabotage and attack for the sake of a cause. 1998 – Futurewise

Security forces will use ever more sophisticated tools for surveillance, violating privacy of hundreds of millions. 1998 – Futurewise

Traditional left-right political divides will be swept away in many nations by polarized debates over things like sustainability, or the application of Islamic laws, or whether a nation should be in or out of the Eurozone. 1998 - Futurewise

Ever present video cameras will make large-scale traditional wars harder to fight, because horrors will be seen very clearly. 1998 – Futurewise

World military spending will fall and then rise – with investment in drones, cruise missiles etc but experience show that wars are won by house to house fighting not by remote control smart weapons. 1998 – Futurewise

Sustainability and single issues

Left-right politics will give way to single issue politics eg should we be in or out of the Eurozone, or become independent from the UK, or spend more on carbon taxes. 1998 - Futurewise

The environment will be the number 1 dominant single issue for decades to come. 1998 - Futurewise

Marriage and children

Marriage will become less fashionable but the dominant household pattern for middle aged people will still be having children and bringing them up together. 1998 - Futurewise

A new generation of teenagers will emerge in the early Third Millennium, the M Generation: more conservative than in the past – less sex, less drunkenness, less drugs, more study, more concerned about issues like environment. They will still follow traditional romantic dreams… of one day finding a wonderful partner for a very long term relationship. 1998 - Futurewise

Drugs and smoking

We will see widespread drug testing – at work and in prisons, greater investment in drug rehab. 1998 - Futurewise

We will see progressive criminalisation of smoking with ever stricter regulations on tobacco, and a bitter fight in some nations over decriminalization of cannabis. 1998 - Futurewise

We will see hundreds of new designer drugs that fall outside government legal powers, of which some will enhance memory and intelligence, becoming widely abused by students. 1998 - Futurewise

Feminisation

Feminisation of workplace and wider society with men in retreat, labeled as testosterone addicts, dangerous, ill-behaved variants of human species prone to violence and sexual predatory acts. 1998 – Futurewise