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data/part_5/0030068718.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"368ac9d2706362b559d788c08234884d","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/4e30e63a-4424-41ed-b4e0-9d6a49cdaee6/retrieve","id":"1429379780"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"126a9bef-abf7-46e7-b46f-b2fb1c7594d2","pagecount":"6","content":"Index-based flood insurance (IBFI), relying on advanced modeling with the use of satellite data, speeded payouts to more than 11,000 flood-affected farm households, benefitting indirectly another 100,000 farmers, who learned from participating neighbors through a crowdsourcing approach.The success of the pilot has gained the attention of state and central government officials. Representatives of the Union Ministry (Government of India) and State Government have agreed to discuss the IBFI approach further for integration as an associated product into the flagship Prime Minister's Crop Insurance scheme. IBFI integrated with the post-flood recovery to agriculture, which provides good access to seeds just after the flood season, enabling farmers to take advantage of excess soil moisture for crop production. For 2018 and 2019 in India a total of 110 HH received a total of 100 kilograms of the seed of 11 crops, including vegetables (cauliflower, tomato, chili, okra) and winter maize variety Shaktiman-3 under the post-flood management strategy. An awareness campaign and workshop were organized for more than 200 households in 11 villages of Muzaffarpur District and 2 villages in East Champaran. Similar efforts were conducted in Orissa (Kendrapara and Puri Districts) with over 50 farm households in 6 villages.In Bangladesh, the first satellite-based flood insurance product developed and successfully tested over 750 HH which received an insurance payout of approx. BDT 2,672,400 for the 2019 flood disasters. In 2020, the Govt. of Bangladesh will scale up IBFI product in five districts covering Hoar region and IWMI is being identified as the technical partner. Scaling of flood insurance products in Hoar region (Bangladesh) for five districts with the support of the Ministry of Finance and GDIC.Bundling flood insurance with post-flood recovery of agriculture heightens the appeal of the intervention for smallholder farmers, making it possible to expand the project. A bundled product including crop-specific post-flood management options can offer benefits even for low to moderate flood events (in terms of depth and duration), while also substantially reducing the actuarially fair premium associated with the flood insurance. In partnership with seed companies, the project has introduced seed of flood-tolerant crop varieties in flood-damaged areas for rapid recovery of agricultural production before the next cropping season. Bundling IBFI with post-flood agricultural recovery offers what governments and donors seem unwilling to provide: a long-term and implicit subsidy on index-based insurance premiums. • # of people, of which 50% are women, assisted to exit poverty Description of activity / study: The core aim of Index Based Flood Insurance is to develop remote sensing products that can accurately depict yield loss due to adverse weather and other disasters on smallholder farms. The overarching goal is to help smallholder farmers better manage their production risks and thereby help contribute to a more secure future for farmers in India.• National • Multi-national Country(ies):• India • BangladeshComments: Bangladesh will certainly adopt the IBFI product given the approval from the Ministry of Finance and Green Delta Insurance company keen to work with IWMI as the technical partner.Contributing CRPs/Platforms: CGIAR Centre through CIMMYT and Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) provided flood and drought-tolerant seeds to test the resilience measures along with climate information and index insurance.The core aim of the Index-Based Flood Insurance (IBFI) project is to develop remote-sensing products that accurately depict yield losses on small farms caused by adverse weather and other disasters. The overarching goal is to help smallholder farmers better manage their production risks, thereby contributing to a more secure future for farmers in India. Within the pilot area, floods have affected 36,620 hectares of paddy. IBFI's novel approach, based on advanced modeling techniques using satellite data, ensured quick insurance payouts. Between 2017 and 2019 more than 1,400 households on the IBFI participated in the pilot evaluation with an approx.. The other product \"BICSA\" whereby the farmers received a package of bundling seeds with climate information and seeds tolerant to floods and drought tested over 700 households in the wider context of climate-smart farming practices aimed at helping the farmer to recover as quickly as possible. A total of 170 farmers received compensation to the value of INR 481,250 (around USD $7,077). Therefore, on this occasion, the insurer made a loss. Seeds of moisture-tolerant crop varieties were provided by Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA). The idea was to ensure good access to seeds just after the flood season, enabling farmers to take advantage of excess soil moisture for new crop production.The project now receives co-financing from state government agencies for product implementation as well as support for scaling up support with the ICAR, Govt. of India and agriproducers i.e. Agrievoluation Pvt. Ltd, Bihar. New flood risk solutions are being discussed with various donors, including the World Bank/IFC, insurance industry in Sri Lanka and several disaster management agencies in South Asia. In Sri Lanka, efforts to promote index-based insurance products are being pursued through the World Bank/IFC, in coordination with the SANSA Insurance company for rolling out products in 2020.","tokenCount":"821"}

data/part_5/0056951712.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"5eb4e30ed00e290496eb692296790c1d","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/81765fdd-c94f-4bd8-906a-9a27e79e94dd/retrieve","id":"1125386648"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"39c9f3bb-d8e1-41b5-96f0-909ca4c11b01","pagecount":"2","content":"Food insecurity in Mozambique's rural areas is still a signifi cant challenge. At least 25% of people suff er from food insecurity throughout the year, and 43% of children under fi ve years of age are stunted (chronically malnourished). Sixty-nine percent of children under the age of fi ve suff er from vitamin A defi ciency (VAD). Orange-fl eshed sweetpotato (OFSP) is a vitamin A powerhouse that can improve nutrition, empower women and increase household incomes. Its short maturing period (3-4 months) and ability to grow under marginal conditions and fl exible planting and harvesting times are production advantages that also help improve food security.The Viable Sweetpotato Technologies in Africa (VISTA) for Mozambique project is a three-year eff ort (2014)(2015)(2016)(2017) that aims to contribute to improved nutrition, food security and incomes among smallholder farming families through increased production and better utilization of nutritious OFSP varieties, especially by those most at risk of VAD -children under fi ve years of age and pregnant and lactating women. This initiative, which began in October 2014, relies on agriculture, nutrition and marketing approaches to reach 22,500 direct and 135,000 indirect benefi ciaries with technologies related to OFSP. To increase vitamin A intake, most of the produced OFSP will be consumed at home. However, 15% of the households will be supported to produce large surpluses for sale. With peak prices of sweetpotato being around 28 cents/kg, we estimate that the project will generate at least US$284,000 per year in cash revenue for smallholder farmers by the end of intervention period.We work in four districts in Nampula Province (Monapo, Meconta, Rapale and Murrupula) and two in Zambezia Province (Alto Molócuè and Gurúè), all under Feed the Future (FtF) zones of infl uence.We are scaling-up proven drought-tolerant OFSP varieties linked to key nutrition messages. In addition, we are promoting improved technologies for managing the quality of OFSP planting material at the multiplier level, improving the ability of each household to maintain their own planting material, and improving post-harvest handling and fresh root storage at the household level. The project was built on recent and on-going sweetpotato research and development interventions aligned to USAID supported Feed the Future We established multiplication sites with 52 individual DVMs. In coordination with government extension services, we supplied 132,280kg of cuttings to 15,220 households, with those having children under the age of fi ve being particularly targeted. We supplied 47 community-based organizations (CBOs) and fi ve private enterprises with vines for root production and multiplication for sale (Table 1).Since July, 237.4 hectares of OFSP have been planted (Table 2). To create awareness on the importance of the OFSP-based \"Power\" Bread (Pão de Força in Portuguese) and OFSP consumption among Mária Bakery customers and sweetpotato growers, we prepared and aired two radio spots and composed one song highlighting the importance of consuming Power Bread. Three OFSP promotion days were organized in Monapo, Murrupula and Alto Molócuè districts. From July 2015, our nutrition messages reached 7,784 households with children under fi ve years of age. Forty-two households and six health workers were trained on Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) in the fi rst 1,000 days of life, food diversifi cation and preparation demonstration.Contacts: Filipe Zano (CIP), [email protected] • Maria Andrade (CIP), [email protected]  What's next?In the next season, we will train DVMs on Triple S (Storage-Sand-Sprouting) and ensure that DVM sites are established no later than October 15, 2016, establish net tunnels and conserve vines in the screen house. We will distribute vines to smallholder farmers, interested larger growers and NGOs. We will continue selecting and training nutrition promoters and community leaders to convey nutrition messages. Stores for OFSP fresh root sale will be constructed and/or improved. With additional funding from USAID, the program will be expanded signifi cantly during the 2016/2017 season.","tokenCount":"629"}

data/part_5/0066342325.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"d6e9df37f780eeb19dd67abf99bedced","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/04ea7295-4889-450d-a7aa-9bc316dd457e/retrieve","id":"1820818657"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"295d6999-7590-43d5-be26-825d5a346323","pagecount":"38","content":"The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock Agri-food systems (CRP Livestock for short) provided research-based solutions to support smallholder farmers, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to transition into sustainable, resilient livelihoods and to productive enterprises that will help feed future generations. An important component of the CRP Livestock research agenda was to demonstrate how livestock research can translate into impact through livestock value chain transformation in four selected priority countries, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda and Vietnam. These projects built on work started by the CRP on Livestock and Fish, which ran from 2012 to 2016. In both research programs, an important component of the research agenda was to deliver impact through livestock research. Starting in 2019, a more concerted investment was made to package the research outputs and pilot an integrated livestock development intervention in each country that could take the research outputs to scale. A key notion was to 'accelerate' research to outcomes and impact by transforming the entire value chain, working with development partners from the start. This was done by building on 'best-bet interventions' already identified, involving all thematic teams of the program (covering the topics of animal health, genetics and breeding, feeds and forages, marketing and business skills, and the environment), and establishing in-country project leadership and coordination. The ambition was to integrate a range of research outputs into an intervention package (or a basket of intervention options) and pilot these as an integrated livestock development intervention in each site, with the ultimate goals of taking research outputs to scale.KIT Royal Tropical Institute partnered with the CRP Livestock to support the four priority country projects in monitoring and learning on livestock research for development (LR4D). The support provided by KIT consisted of two main components:1. Facilitate mainstreaming a Theory of Change (ToC) approach in the priority country program, involving the further development of the country projects' ToCs, and supporting its use for reflection and review, establishing an evidence base to assess the cause and effect logic, and documenting lessons learned. 2. Monitor and document the lessons learned on the process of the integrated intervention packages helped in taking research outputs to scale work using the CRP priority country approach, and monitor and document the lessons learned.This report describes the main results from the first component for the project in Ethiopia . This also served as an input into a synthesis across the four country projects (Kruijssen et al., 2021). The remainder of this document is structured as follows, Section 2 describes the methodology used for the analysis and its theoretical underpinnings. Section 3 provides a short description of the country project in Ethiopia and its ToC. Section 4 presents the results of the ToC reflection process, and the KAP survey, and the contribution analysis. Finally, we draw some conclusions in section 5.The methodology applied for lessons learning and assessing the project's ToC against evidence on its outcomes is based on realist evaluation, and contribution analysis. Realist evaluation is a sub-stream of theory-based evaluation approaches. Theory-based evaluation has been popularised in recent years as a response to the inability of impact evaluation methods (e.g. Randomised Controlled Trials) to determine the mechanisms by which interventions and research for development can achieve impact, and generate institutional lessons on research and innovation processes (Hall et al., 2003). While (semi-) experimental evaluation methods can determine whether an intervention works, it does not explain why and how the intervention works. However, this knowledge is crucial to scale innovation beyond test locations (Maru et al. 2016). Impact assessments thus need to be complemented with analytical frameworks that allow for institutional learning (Hall et al. 2003).Theory-based evaluation approaches aim to develop a 'program theory', that clarifies \"how program activities are understood to cause (or contribute to) outcomes and impacts\" (Westhorp, 2014;pp 4). Impact pathways describe the results chains (linkages from outputs to outcomes and impact), but a ToC adds the causal assumptions behind these links, i.e. what has to happen for the causal linkages to be realised (Mayne and Johnson, 2015). Theory-based evaluation approaches map the causal chain from inputs to outcomes and impact, and test the underlying assumptions to answer the 'why'-question of impact.A realist evaluation seeks to improve understanding of how and why interventions work or do not work in particular contexts, and why different outcomes are achieved in different contexts. This approach is specifically based on the assumption that there is no one-size-fits-all solution; context strongly influences program outcomes. This implies that understanding context is an important part of understanding how and why programs work or not, so that informed decisions can be made about which programs or policies to use and how to adapt them to local contexts. A realist evaluation thus looks at what works for whom, to what extent, under what circumstances and over what duration (Westhorp, 2014). It is therefore particularly appropriate for evaluating pilot programs that are being scaled out.Realist evaluation tries to explain causation through observable and non-observable processes; in essence, the program activities (observable) influence the reasoning, norms, capacity and collective beliefs of the participants or stakeholders (non-observable) which determine decisions and choices of the same actors that result in program outcomes (observable). This underlying causal process may function differently in one context compared to another (Westhorp, 2014;Pawson and Tilley, 1997).A realist evaluation thus tests how these processes cause desired outcomes in a given context (White and Phillips, 2012).The starting point of a realist evaluation is the ToC of the program or project, which needs to be able to answer the following questions: 1. For whom will this program theory work and not work, and why? 2. In what contexts will this program theory work and not work, and why? 3. What are the main mechanisms by which we expect this program theory to work? 4. If this program theory works, what outcomes will we see?For the purpose of the research in the CRP Livestock priority country projects, we have operationalised realist evaluation through a participatory process developed by Douthwaite et al. (2008). This process helps to make outcomes more explicit in a ToC, by reflecting on groups of 'next users', i.e. those actors that are using the research outputs. In particular this looks at the changes in practice of the different actors that are envisioned, and what changes in the set of knowledge, attitudes and skills are required to achieve that change of practice, as well as the assumptions that need to hold for this to happen.To assess whether the ToCs of the CRP Livestock priority country projects have held good and planned outcomes have been achieved, a contribution analysis approach has been applied. Contribution analysis compares an intervention's ToC against emergent evidence, and is mostly used in complex systems where changes in outcomes are the result of a several factors in addition to the interventions (Koleros and Mayne, 2019). A contribution story is constructed by building up evidence that demonstrates the contribution of an intervention while also establishing the relative importance of other influences on observed outcomes (White and Phillips, 2012).In contribution analysis, two concepts are important to build evidence of attribution:-Necessity: that the intervention actually caused the changed; i.e. nothing would have changed in the absence of the intervention. The intervention was thus necessary. -Sufficiency; that the intervention was the only/ sole cause of the change; i.e. nothing else was needed to bring about the change. The intervention was sufficient.If evidence can be found to confirm that the intervention was both necessary and sufficient, the achieved change can be attributed to the intervention. The evidence base can be built by quantitative methods, but also by eliminating plausible alternative explanations for the change at outcome level (e.g. other donor interventions, new policies, market forces). Note that causation is often directly experienced or observed by project staff, participants and stakeholders. Collecting views from different key informants is thus essential qualitative data to be used in contribution analysis (Makaurau 2010).Different levels of contribution are distinguished, based on Ton and Glover (2019):-No contribution: there is no evidence that the causal process (change pathway) took place.-Weak contribution: there is some evidence that the intervention contributed to the causal process (change pathway). -Fair contribution: there is evidence that the intervention was a causal factor contributing to the acceleration or scaling of the causal process (change pathway). -Strong contribution: there is evidence that the intervention was a necessary (nonredundant) causal factor of starting the causal process (change pathway).Table 1 categorises the different levels of contribution based on observed changes. To implement the realist evaluation and contribution analysis methodology, KIT developed a process consisting of four main steps: 1) Validation of the projects' ToCs, 2) Reflections on the validated ToCs with project staff and partners; 3) Assessment of knowledge, attitudes and practices outcomes among next users; 4) Validation workshop to reflect on the results and jointly develop the contribution analysis. Figure 1 provides a timeline for how this process was implemented. The steps are further described below. The country teams identified the change pathways and underlying assumptions during the inception phase of the project. In the first step this has been collated in a ToC, which was validated by the country teams. For Ethiopia this took place in November 2020. The output of this step was a revised ToC diagram for each country, depicting the change pathways and underlying assumptions at the start of the country projects, including the anticipated changes (in knowledge, attitude, skills or practices) among next users at outcome level, and a mapping of assumptions against the scaling ingredients (based on Dror and Wu (2020)).Step 2: Reflection on Theory of ChangeThis consisted of:• Reflection on key strategies, activities, outputs and outcomes. Is the project on track to achieve them? • Review of whether changes need to happen in the project to ensure they will be achieved.• Assessment if the assumptions hold.• Reflection on the extent to which the ToC holds.Virtual reflection workshops were held for each country to reflect on the ToC, using the revised versions developed in step 1. The focus was on validating the change pathways and the underlying assumptions, and assessing the progress towards achieving outcomes. At the start of the program it was anticipated that these would be in-country workshops, however due to the Covid-19 pandemic these were moved to online, using MURAL. In all the priority countries, the first reflection session took place in the first/second quarter of 2021, and the second and final reflection was held in each country during the country stakeholder meetings in the third/fourth quarter of 2021. The latter also focused on an assessment of the extent the ToCs held true, of the contributions of the priority country program in view of achieving impact at scale. The sessions in Ethiopia and Uganda were carried out as hybrid meetings combining online and in-person discussions.Guided by a set of questions (see Box 1) each group discussed for that particular user-group the (early) intended and unintended outcomes that were emerging and any differences observed compared to the ToC, as well as any potential changes required in the project strategy to achieve planned outcomes. In addition, assumptions were reviewed to assess if they held and if they influenced the achievement of outputs and outcomes, and identify any new assumptions and/or preconditions needed to achieve outcomes.Step 3: KAP outcomes harvesting This consisted of collection and analysis of outcome level data from the project's 'next users' on their perceptions of changes in knowledge, attitudes, and practices, and the likelihood that these will be continued beyond the project. Outcome harvesting was implemented through the roll-out of an adapted KAP-survey (i.e. Knowledge, Attitudes Practices) to assess perceived changes among next users, at the expected outcome level in the ToC, including perceptions on the contribution of the program to those changes. The anticipated outcomes in the ToC were assessed with regard to (i) whether they occurred, (ii) to what extent, and (iii) why they can be attributed to the country program.In Ethiopia, a set of questionnaires was developed for this study and used for data collection in November 2021. Data collection was conducted by team of local consultants in three out of the four project sites, namely Bonga, Doyogena and Menz. of the project. The sample for this survey included four next user groups, covering:1. 90 small ruminant producers, 30 from each site, randomly selected from the project participant list, evenly distributed between men and women where possible, 2. 88 representatives of youth sheep-fattening groups, randomly selected 1 male and 1 female representative per youth group @17 groups in Bonga, 12 groups in Doyogena and 15 groups in Menz 3. 25 veterinary/extension workers and development agents involved in the project activities at district and regional level 4. 7 district and regional level policy makers involved in the project activitiesThe questionnaire was based on the project's ToC and the knowledge attitudes and practices that were expected to change among the next user groups as a result of the project (for more information see Section 3.2). On an average, the questionnaires took about 20-25 minutes to complete. The questionnaire was developed in English and translated to Amharic and/or further translated into other local languages, where needed, by the local consultants at the time of data collection. The questions on knowledge aimed to assess what respondents identified as the most important learnings related to crop-livestock systems and whether they perceived these learnings as applicable to their situation. These questions were either open ended, or were Likert-type questions with five levels of (dis)agreement. Questions on attitudes were about the agreement with statements about key areas of relevance to the ToC and the assumptions part of the ToC. These also used the agreement-scale, and had open-ended follow up questions to understand respondents motivations behind their answers. Finally, the questions on practices, aimed at assessing which practices respondents have implemented, which were open-ended questions and Likert-scale questions of the yes/no type of asking for a frequency. A summary of questions can be found in Annex 1.Step 4: Validation and contribution analysisThis consisted of a presentation of and reflection on the analysis of all data collected throughout the process and a joint contribution analysis. A joint validation workshop for all countries together was organised on the 15 th of December 2022. The Vietnam team was unable to join this meeting and they therefore had a separate meeting on the 22 nd of December 2022. During this workshop, the results were presented of the KAP survey and combined with the results of the ToC reflection workshops to jointly develop the contribution analysis.3 The priority country project in EthiopiaThe SmaRT project focused on small ruminant value chains in view of streamlining quality supply of small ruminant products to a growing market in Ethiopia. It was developed in response to findings of a value chain assessment (2012/2013) that indicated producers had low productivity caused by inadequate and poor quality feed supply, high disease incidence resulting in high morbidity and mortality, absence of organized smallholders breeding programs, inadequate outreach of research and extension support systems and limited technical and business capacity of producers. The assessment also showed that smallholder producers lacked access to reliable input markets and access to remunerative markets. In Phase I of the CRP Livestock (and Fish), ICARDA and ILRI with their partners developed, piloted and validated best bet technologies and institutional innovations for productivity enhancement. The tested interventions included improved feeding, genetics, herd health and marketing as well as facilitating community action, and was accompanied by capacity building of farmers and other value chain actors. It was envisaged that full integration of the piloted best-bet interventions at the production node would result in higher gains and positive outcomes for farmers and other actors.Thus, the country project was developed towards the following vision shared by all stakeholders -\"By 2023, people in Ethiopia benefit from equitable, sustainable and efficient sheep and goat value chains: their animals are more productive, livestock markets work for producers, consumers and business, there are more, more affordable and healthier small ruminant products, and the livelihoods and capacities of people involved in the whole chain are improved.\"The project aimed at reaching smallholder producer households in four selected small ruminant value chain sites 1 -three sheep value chain sites namely Bonga, Doyogena and Menz, and one goat value chain site, Abergelle (Figure 2). The initial ToC was developed in an elaborate exercise involving local consultants, and the impact pathways were subsequently refined through discussions with stakeholders in course of CRP-I (L&F) and later in discussions on site-specific integrated intervention packages during the inception phase of the priority country program i.e. CRP-II. The ToC was further refined and validated during the first stage of the process described in the methodology section (The output of this process is the ToC presented in Figure 3).  The ToC shows four interdependent impact pathways to arrive at this goal. The overall objective of the project was to consolidate, implement, evaluate and promote integration of interventions (in a package called 'SmaRT Pack') at producer level while ensuring equitable access to input supplies and services and developing partnerships. SmaRT Pack is an integrated innovation package comprising best-bet technologies and institutional interventions for improved feeding (sheep fattening), breeding (community-based breeding program, fertility improvement, certification of improved rams and bucks), herd health (vaccination and treatment for common small ruminant diseases -such as reproductive and respiratory diseases -community-based parasite control, health certification of breeding rams), marketing as well as promoting gender equity and facilitating community action through community conversations and communities of practice.Furthermore the project intended to achieve the following specific objectives -• Increasing sheep and goat productivity through improved genetics, feed and health (while lowering environmental footprint), and generating more income at household level accessible to both men and women; • Increasing contribution of small ruminant (SR) meat to household food security • Assessing the environmental impact of proposed interventions • Developing strategies to ensure access to supplies and services required to sustain the integrated intervention packages after 2021 • Enhancing capacity and skills of target beneficiaries and implementing partners • Assessing scalability of integrated intervention packages and developing clear pathways for scaling.Four main groups of 'next users' were identified and targeted with interventions -i) small ruminant producers, ii) Development Agents (extension workers), iii) Input and service providers, and iv) MoA policy makers. The project team was uncertain if the expected changes in input and service providers (next user 3) that mainly needed social-institutional interventions, would take place in the given timeframe, and these activities were therefore dropped. In the course of implementation the project decided to focus on local market demand for fattened sheep, and set up and capacitated 'youth groups' to increase both productivity and supply -thereby including youth group representatives as a new next user group. Table 2 provides an overview of the next users and the changes in knowledge, attitudes and practices that were expected to be observed among them in course of the project.Given the restricted timeframe of the remainder of the CRP Livestock (2.5 years), the expectation from the start was that the project would not be able to reach beyond the early outcome level of the ToC by end of 2021. Planned project activities were built on proven best bet interventions tested in selected value chain sites. In a multi-stakeholder workshop in April 2017, national and international partners developed value chain site specific integrated packages from a basket of tested best-bet interventions. In 2019 SmaRT Pack was developed based on these packages with a focus on integration of activities.Through the community based breeding programs (CBBPs) producers organized themselves in cooperatives which also provided the entry point for community-based health management, community conversations and collective action for marketing. An important institutional innovation related to CBBPs was the establishment of a certification system for breeding rams and bucks which also included health certification. The herd health component included control of the major SR diseases identified in the sites (respiratory and reproductive diseases and diseases of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT)). Improved small ruminant reproductive performance was targeted through control of the related diseases, supplementary feeding and fertility management. Businessoriented sheep fattening was promoted through specialized individual farmers (champions) and youth groups. Coordination and integration of interventions was fostered through the development of site specific intervention calendars. Awareness of the communities about specific topics related to animal health, feeding and collective action along with a discussion on related gender roles and norms was facilitated through community conversations. To foster linkages between the producers and service and input providers, the project first experimented with multi-stakeholder platforms but then decided that communities of practice (CoP) as established for sheep fattening was a more appropriate approach and was more likely to self-sustain.This section presents the results of the reflections on the Theory of Change, those of the KAP survey, and the contribution analysis conducted during the validation workshop (i.e. the results of Step 4 in the process explained in Section 2.3 that describes the methodology).The purpose of the reflections on the Theory of Change was to revisit the change pathways and validate underlying assumptions, and check progress on the output and outcome indicators agreed upon. In course of the project, two reflection sessions were held with the Ethiopia country priority project, SmaRT pack -on June 16, 2021 and November 1, 2021. Both sessions focused on assessing to what extent the ToC held in order to eventually draw lessons learned on scaling. However due to COVID related delays in implementation, the latter was not carried out. Participants for the sessions were drawn from the implementation team of the country project including local partners and other stakeholders. This section presents these reflections by impact pathway of the ToC (i.e. producers, service providers, gender and policy). For each pathway we first present a table with reflections on the early and intermediate outcomes, and secondly one with reflections on the underlying assumptions.Early signs of planned outcomes Reflection 1 (June 2021) Reflection 2 (November 2021)Small ruminant producers (female and male, equitably) adopt SmaRT pack to increase their productivity while lowering their environmental footprint and consequently increasing their income, Some changes in knowledge (e.g. ability to understand the higher value of a breeding animal compared to an animal for fattening) and practices of SR producers observed, as a result of their interactions with the project team including cooperatives and NGOs in community conversations and trainings;Commercialisation of small ruminant production through sustained value addition and ensuring availability of inputs and services (like feeds, vaccines, extension support, access to finance).Community of Practice (CoP) is useful as a space for different actors to voice their needs and concerns, and participation of the cooperatives with their knowledge about markets and pricing policies proved useful to augment commercialization.Commercialization has encouraged participation of men in SR rearing activities such as feeding, barn cleaning, milking of goats etc. and farmers were willing to cultivate forages on their own lands.Producers need access to finance to procure resources to sustain value addition.Collective action fostered in the cooperatives to create sustainable market linkages leading to equal benefits for men and women producers Realisation that -some areas need more support to improve market linkages; Price regulation is weak and could be threat; Demand affected by COVID and Tigray conflict; Slaughter houses operating at 40% due to low supply Source: Summary of discussion of reflection workshopsThe reflection sessions generated pointers for project implementation related to the producer pathway of the ToC (Table 3). Actions needed in order to achieve the outcomes planned such as:-more training on the integrated packages, -need to include input suppliers into the CoP, -assessing the role of DAs in helping producers access inputs, -invite financial institutions to participate in the CoP, and establish linkages with MFIs, -need to find alternative markets offering better prices than local markets as local markets are difficult to influence -policy engagement to influence price regulation -how to sustain women's participation in cooperatives -how to sustain men's participation in small ruminant rearing activities Reflection on the set of assumptions for the producer pathway revealed that some assumptions held while some of the assumptions could pose threats to achieving outcomes (Table 4). The reflection sessions generated pointers for project implementation for the service providers pathway of the ToC (Table 5). Actions needed in order to achieve the outcomes planned such as:-Need to look for alternative to private sector input suppliers -can rural youth be mobilised as service providers or input suppliers e.g., to supply fodder? Will need start-up capital -Can the role of university students as service providers be sustained? -Assess reasons for lack of demand for MFI finance (high interest) -what are the alternatives? -Are Livestock development agents fully engaged? How to sustain their engagement with youth groups? -How to ensure that promotion of SmaRT pack will continue independent of project? Reflection on the set of assumptions revealed that some assumptions held while some of the assumptions could pose threats to achieving outcomes (Table 6). Yes, especially at production and marketing levels; coopsmarketing there is better understanding but still needs to be further followed up-no evidence generated yet.Research and government partners have been brought together in communities of practice which will sustain outcomes Changes take time at system level; require frequent engagement and coaching and mentoring, and patience.Source: Summary of discussion of reflection workshopsThe reflection sessions generated pointers for project implementation for the gender pathway of the ToC (Table 7). Actions needed in order to achieve the outcomes planned such as:-Need to develop strategies to improve service delivery to communities from gender perspective -All changes observed need to be documented so happen -esp. evidence of spillover effects on other HHs; Lessons and outcome stories need to documented and shared. -Need to assess if increase in productivity has resulted in higher HH consumption of SR meatand what impact on nutrition of children and women can be expected? -More needed to assure that commitments of leaders and others really lead to changes -Some conflicts emerged in HHs as norms were being challenged; Need to assess the potential negative outcomes/unintended negative impacts of community conversations -Changes take time to appear especially among local service providers; they are committed to integrate the approach in their systems but in practices there is not much difference observed.The existing cultural norms can be positively influenced in the target communities to encourage equitable access Yes-especially thro' gender capacity work they developed internal and external gender objectives but it depends on individuals/ champions-where gender champions are missing changes do not happen/ or as quickly; Gender champions are still key -they can be found or created in institutions through coaching, documenting successes and encouraging e.g. recognition awards. Women's affairs office are adopting gender labelling which is ranking of gender outcomes of other sectors.Extension system and community leaders are willing to change Yes, however putting things in practice could be a challenge. -depends on the level of input from the project. for example -at district level the project brought partners together in a community of practice as a local coordination and partnership mechanism with additional financial resources order to sustain it. This aims to ensure that they become more accountable that is it becomes part of their monitoring system.The existing cultural norms can be positively influenced amongst service providers to encourage equitable access Yes, cultural norms are changing. Need gender strategies in partner organisations to sustain the changes.There is equitable access to (and presence of) extension services, input suppliers and service providersYes-DAs are now consulting both men and wife at HH level when they visit; Service providers are starting to take into account specific constraints and challenges that men and women have; has been addressed throughout 2021, field visits for monitoring and coaching.Source: Summary of discussion of reflection workshopsReflection on the set of assumptions revealed that some assumptions held while some of the assumptions could pose threats to achieving outcomes (Table 8).This section summarizes the results of the KAP survey, carried out in November 2021. These results are presented by next user group (i.e. small ruminant producers, development agents, youth groups, and policy makers). .The survey started with an open ended question with regard to the most important learnings small ruminant producers had gained in the past 18 months. The most frequently mentioned learning was on sheep breeding (mentioned by 90%), followed by knowledge and importance of healthcare, feeding, shelter/management of sheep, and marketing arrangements (see Table 9).The majority of SR producers attributed their learning to the research centers (70 producers) in the respective project sites namely Areka Research Center, Bonga Research Center, and Debre Birhan Research Center. Few producers mentioned training provided in the village (7), the project and/or ILRI/ ICARDA (9) and the sheep cooperative (3). Several follow up questions were asked with statements with regard to knowledge, attitudes and practices (Table 10). These questions were Likert scale questions, with different answer options depending on the questions. Average scores were calculated (not applicable answers were excluded), and these are colour-coded depending on the degree of agreement/ adoption, where the lowest scores correspond with red, middle with yellow and highest with green.The results show that producers feel they have improved their knowledge and have learned things they can apply. The subsequent set of questions regards producers' attitudes towards the technologies and practices distributed by the project. Sheep meat processing is not a component of the project hence all respondents answered 'not applicable'.Most average scores are in the highest category, with the exception of attitudes towards trust in DAs to support the producers in implementation of the integrated technology packages. In the reasons for distrust in DAs mentioned in the open-ended follow up question, there are differences across the three project sites. For instance, most of the producers interviewed in Doyogena mentioned that they do not get any service (neither crop nor sheep production related) from the DAs partly because most DAs do not know the integrated technology package and/or do not support it. While in Bonga, only 3 out of the 30 producers interviewed said that the DAs have provided some advice and followup on sheep rearing, health and marketing. The producers in Menz did not have trust issues with the DAs mainly because they are \"working for the government\" and they have been occasionally receiving support and advice on crop production; some even mentioned receiving support in \"keeping their sheep healthier\" but added that it was to the minimum (\"only in principle, not on the ground). Many producers mentioned that they have not received any support on sheep production from the DAs. Some producers stated high turnover among the DAs as a reason for not trusting them. More than trust, the producers stated lack of frequent interaction, and no follow up regarding sheep production issues. Almost all SR producers indicated that there were no 'other extension agents' supporting them specifically for sheep production, those that still answered the question therefore had a neutral opinion on other extension agents. Some mentioned using veterinary services for healthcare at cost/ on demand and follow-up, and the cooperative office for cooperative membership related information. Generally, all producers trust government agents as they have experienced their support in other areas. This indicates that while knowledge can be imparted relatively easily through training, changing attitudes -especially building trust in public extension services may need longer time.At the moment there are no women and/or youth input and service providers in the project areas, hence most producers scored it as 'not applicable'. Those that did answer this question had low trust in women and youth as extension agents. Most producers indicate using/applying the inputs and services recommended by the project, hence the score is relatively high; other details regarding the practices are answered in the open-ended questions. All producers are members of small ruminant or sheep producers cooperatives hence the score is 1. Note: Colours indicate the degree to which a particular change in knowledge attitude or practice has taken place. The scores and color-coding are as follows. Agreement (1-5): 1-Strongly disagree, 2-Disagree, 3-Neither agree nor disagree, 4-Agree, 5-Strongly agree; red 1-2.33 yellow 2.34-3.67, green 3.68-5; Yes/No (0-1): 0-No, 1-Yes; red 0-0.33, yellow 0.33-0.67, green: 0.67-1. Frequency: 0-No, never, 1-Yes, occasionally, 2-Yes, most of the time, 3-Yes, always; red 0-1, yellow 1-2, green 2-3.The Likert scale questions were complemented with open-ended questions.• getting more training and knowledge and skills, • rearing improved local sheep, • getting free vaccination and timely medical treatment and follow-up, • making informed decisions and improving sheep rearing, • getting opportunities for peer learning (from other producers),• getting a fair price based on weight (not visual estimate) for the sheep from the cooperatives, • getting deferred payment through the dividends -with almost 5 times price difference, and • increasing income (to 3 times a year) and improving livelihoods. Some also mentioned engagement with the project helped them to access loans from the cooperative to scale up their businesses. Others saw it as an opportunity for new visitors and buyers to visit their remote villages.The reasons stated for interest in using the technology packages promoted by the project and for interest in more training were mainly to gain more knowledge on animal health, improved feed production -improve sheep rearing and management practices, scale up production, and increase income/ improve livelihood. Some also said that they wanted more training in order to build their confidence to be able to share knowledge with others. There is also an interest in periodic refresher training to get more knowledge on latest trends supporting their practices. The technology packages promoted by the project helped the producers -i) to get healthcare for their sheep, and make their sheep healthy, ii) to increase production, iii) opportunities to interact with experts and learn from other producers; and iv) get all needed components (integrated package-breeding, feeding, management) to boost production. Producers realise that applying all available inputs and services has better results in the business as better combination of input and access to different services helps in getting quality offspring that attract market opportunities; all activities are dependent on one-another therefore one activity alone cannot bring benefits -\"earlier there was no health service so our profitability was low, we have no serious health problems now\".Reasons for commercializing: Sheep production has a profitable, short gestation period and can give benefit 3 to 4 times a year. Therefore as the main source of income, it is possible to have more sheep within a short period of time, and more frequent income. Producers acknowledged the value of improving the overall supply of good quality sheep. They realise that developing the cooperatives leads to their own development, and that being market driven helps obtain more income and improves livelihood. They saw sheep production as a more reliable livelihood activity as compared to crop production as the latter needs land which is limited. According to the producers, commercial scale not only helps reduce the cost of production and increase the profit margin, but also provides a base for diversifying to large animals, and prevents wastage of inputs and services. Market orientation leads to better awareness on the current sheep prices and helps obtain the right market value in terms of better prices. In commercializing, the producers saw opportunities for their children to continue and grow the business. Some felt that commercializing can work if they did not have problem of capital and time -else they cannot modernize and scale-up for better income. According to few, commercialising needs proper planning and resources. Several follow up questions were asked with statements with regard to knowledge and attitudes (Table 12). Likert scale questions were complemented with open-ended questions. Source: KAP survey, 2021. Note: Colours indicate the degree to which a particular change in knowledge attitude or practice has taken place. The scores and color-coding are as follows. Agreement (1-5): 1-Strongly disagree, 2-Disagree, 3-Neither agree nor disagree, 4-Agree, 5-Strongly agree; red 1-2.33, yellow 2.34-3.67, green 3.68-5;.Overall, there is high agreement with the statements, with the exception of the statement related to the degree to which young women are interested in sheep fattening.The motivation for the high scores on willingness to continue engaging with the project is related to experiencing positive results and benefits in terms of better prices, increased income, improved livelihoods; opportunities to improve their knowledge and skills about fattening, to become members of the cooperatives associations, to get increased number of and/or healthier animals; getting support from government, other producers (social capital) and increased exposure to markets. The reasons for equally high scores for interest in receiving more training were to gain more knowledge (technical and business skills) and become more effective, and make their businesses more profitable. Box 2 provides a number of additional trainings that youth respondents would like to receive.On the statement marketing fattened sheep is more profitable compared to selling sheep without fattening, reasons for the higher score included fattened sheep having more weight therefore fetching good/ higher prices, more value/ profit margin (2-3 times more than skinny sheep), they are more easily sold and have high demand, they have better quality -better (color of) meat and more attractive to the eyes, and are more profitable as the income can be used to buy more sheep. For instance, \"not fattened sheep will have an average market value of not more than 1,500 birr while fattened sheep have 4,000 birr. Even by reducing the amount spent on fattening, the (fattened) sheep will still be very profitable\".The agreement on the statement that all smallholder producers are interested in technical services for fattening their sheep is slightly lower, although still in the highest range. Some indicate that this is because of lack of feed and income to provide supplementary feeding and shelter, they do not know the benefits of fattening, have limited information and resources (finance to buy feed, land for forage cultivation), lack of know-how and inputs, and think it has high labour requirement.Whether women producers do not find it difficult to apply integrated technologies for sheep fattening, and their interest in fattening sheep, had a mixed response. While the agreement among women was only slightly higher than among men (average agreement of 3.32 for women versus 3.13 for men), reasons stated by female respondents differed from the male respondents. For instance, female respondents recognised that sheep fattening is profitable, and that it can be done alongside other domestic activities, whereas male respondents who have experienced benefits see that sheep fattening complements other livelihood opportunities. On the other hand, female respondents who felt that it is difficult to use the SmaRT pack attributed it to their a) lack of know-how (social norms disallowing them from attending training), b) workloads and resource challenges -lack of (access to) capital and land particularly to construct sheds, and might face feed shortages, c) different priorities and opportunities -prefer to work in urban areas, and d) negative influence from families. TheirThe respondents requested more training on the following topics: -animal healthcare, disease prevention and management, -animal feed -forage types and cultivation, preparation and supplementary feeding practices, dealing with feed shortages refresher training on fattening management (at less cost) -marketing and market linkages how to strengthen the cooperatives (for collective marketing) -coordinating with kebele and woreda authorities savings and credit male counterparts stated that young women are interested in fattening sheep because of the ease of rearing within the homestead (and women do not need to work outside like men), that they are more knowledgeable and have the required experience and skill, and are capable of taking care of the sheep. They also stated that women can get support from men and/or get advice from producers/ youth trained in the project, and if they are interested in business, it can help them increase their incomes. Further the responses vary per project site -for example in Bonga, women producers are organised and have formed a cooperative and are therefore more motivated and interested in taking up sheep fattening as an income generation activity. On the other hand, women producers in Menz and Doyogena are relatively new, and are still in the process of acquiring skills and knowledge to improve sheep production.Youth reported that they had made the following changes in the way they fattened their sheep and/or sold their fattened sheep: being more market oriented, selecting better varieties suitable for fattening within a shorter period, shortening the fattening period, planting forages and improving feeding practices, paying attention to hygiene of the shed including proper disposal of feces, providing timely healthcare, assessing market prices before selling, and knowing the best time to sell in order to get a good price.There is also high agreement with the statement on the need for coordination among input suppliers and service provider. The youth believe that coordination of the various actors (in the value chain) will increase impact by adequate and timely service provision e.g. healthcare, provision of variety of forages and feed, good extension services. With economies of scale they will be able to reduce cost of production and increase their profit margins, will save (individual) time and effort particularly while managing disease outbreaks (all get vaccination together and on time), and have better access to markets and price for sale of sheep.With regard to what more needs to happen for the youth to get more sheep for fattening, they suggested strengthening healthcare services, provision of additional land for planting forages, and training on marketing and market linkages, need to train DAs in sheep production.The most important changes seen by youth are that they now have better breeds (white and attractive, faster weight gain), the number of sheep has increased, they have improved quality of sheep meat and therefore increased demand (most preferred), and better prices, they have advantages of being in the cooperative, and that there are more women in sheep production than before.While many of the DAs admitted that they were not directly concerned with the project interventions, they still had observed changes in small producers' rearing practices and their effects as a result of the project interventions. Inbreeding has reduced significantly-and the quality of sheep in terms of volume has improved. They observed significant changes on quality, protection and care for sheep, and health service consultation. The DAs were aware that other non-project farmers were aware of the results and had started changing their practices on their own. Therefore the project will not require too much time to scale-up to other areas.  Source: KAP survey, 2021. Note: Colours indicate the degree to which a particular change in knowledge attitude or practice has taken place. The scores and color-coding are as follows. Agreement (1-5): 1-Strongly disagree, 2-Disagree, 3-Neither agree nor disagree, 4-Agree, 5-Strongly agree; red 1-2.33, yellow 2.34-3.67, green 3.68-5;.All DAs attributed their learning to their own observations and to the interactions they had with project teams, training provided by Areka Research Center, ILRI and ICARDA Debre Birhan Research Center (Menz) and the woreda agriculture office in the respective project sites.A significant number of DAs expressed willingness to continue engagement with the project. This is important because though trained by the project, most DAs, owing to other work obligations, were not able to contribute to the project interventions. The reasons that they would like to engage ranged from their interest in developing their knowledge and skills on sheep rearing, responding to farmers' needs for support in sheep production, earning allowances, and facilitating integration of sheep production in other agriculture and livelihood advisory services. Reasons for wanting to receive more training on small ruminant production were also similar in that the DAs are keen to update their knowledge and practical skills to improve extension services in order to better serve farmers. The topics covered in training are not part of their university curriculum particularly on improved feed production and preparing quality feed, animal health -treatment and disease control, and fattening management.With regard to marketing of SmaRT Pack all DAs were of the opinion that it was not difficult to do as most farmers had experienced and/or observed good results and benefits in a short period of time, and were convinced that it led to increased income and improved livelihood. The SmaRT Pack technology was proven, and tested in practical terms in field conditions hence did not require much work to convince farmers. Few DAs were apprehensive about the level of integration (of innovations) in the SmaRT Pack with reference to access to markets to absorb the increased production, and generate the envisaged improved income.The majority of the DAs felt that most smallholder producers are/would be interested in integrated technology packages for small ruminant production as the packages were relatively simple to adopt, required less (grazing) resources and had a short gestation period. The results and benefits observed were the main motivating factors particularly the increase in sheep prices for improved breeds. However they were also aware that some farmers would not be willing to make the required effort needed to realise all the benefits, leading to disinterest. With the right support in terms of training and materials, many farmers would benefit.However, when asked the same question specifically for women, the DAs had a slightly lower level of agreement (although still in the highest range). Most of them felt that it was a traditional income generation activity for women and it could be done in the homestead alongside other domestic activities. Women producers are generally more interested than men but lack the resources and training to buy improved sheep breeds and the inputs required for fattening. With support from experts, women producers would be able to participate better in project activities. The DAs were interested in promoting integrated technology packages for small ruminant production (SmaRT Pack) to women and/or youth as they see potential of sheep rearing for youth employment. As short gestation activities, sheep fattening and production are attractive to youth; also many youth have formal education and hence can be trained. Promotion of integrated technology packages requires coordination among input suppliers as farmers would benefit more if they got the full package (rather than piece meal).With regard to what more needs to happen to get more/ new SR producers to use/apply integrated technology packages for small ruminant production the DAs had several suggestions relevant for scaling SmaRT Pack:• Increase supply of forages and selected breed rams;• Promote animal health service and coverage with regular followup and strengthening of healthcare services • Train DAs in sheep production • Strengthen associations and transition to commercialized farms • Increase awareness of and improve access to markets for non-project producers • Harmonise service provision primarily at kebele and also at woreda level • Provision of additional land for planting forages (by government),• Provide training on marketing and market linkages,• Diversify the interventions to other livestock species;The most important changes seen in small ruminant producers behavior/ attitudes with respect to their production and/or processing practices included• increased interest and adoption among producers -happening in relatively short period;• increased knowledge on selection of best performing breed type for both breeding and fattening; • producers more willing to invest in preventive healthcare and getting medical services at own expense, plant own forages and improve feeding practices; • producers more actively participating in extension events than before, and proactively seeking advice; • producers better aware of when to sell sheep to maximize profits; and • sheep products (from project area) have high demand in Addis markets.The policy makers (which was only a sample of 3) mentioned learnings related to their realization that for better productivity, breed improvement needs to be accompanied by attention to other components such as feeding, health and market linkages, and that an integrated approach is needed to have meaningful impact and to sustain results. They attributed this learning to the project, and to interactions with researchers from ICARDA and SARI regional centers.The high scores (>4.5) on the Likert-scale questions indicate that they see applicability of the learning, improvement in own technical knowledge, and a willingness to invest resources to promote integrated technology packages to improve productivity and livelihood of small ruminant producers. They are willing to continue engagement with the production because it provides opportunity to interact with highly qualified and experienced people who share knowledge, and provide technical backstopping. For them, collaboration is key for enhanced development. They realise that the technology package is suitable for low input agriculture.The representatives of the regional governments expressed interest in scaling-out the project with a caveat that although they trusted the people who generate evidence, they did not need more evidence. According to them, \"the government \"owns\" the approach, additional knowledge and evidences are always good to see things differently and convince people easily\". The policy makers seem to understand the importance of engaging in policy dialogue to promote the integrated technology packages for small ruminant production through 'SmaRT Pack Regions' as regional governments have resources that can be utilized with their own discretion. Therefore if convinced, the resources can be used to benefit communities and for the improvement of the country's economy at large. All the policy makers strongly agreed that existing socio-cultural norms need to be changed to ensure equitable access (especially for women) to extension services, input suppliers and service providers -needed to women's' ownership and decision making position. They are aware that many women do not get the chance or are unable to implement the activity due to economic constraints.The most important changes made in the last 8 months, as reported by the policy makers are:• Breed registration and utilization -focus on local breeds rather than importing;• Improve marketing and streamline taxes • Make private/government intervene in feed and feeding • Scaled up SMART pack to additional areas in the country • Scale up the practice to large ruminants and chicken.With regard to changes needed in business environment, they felt that it is necessary to strengthen business to business (B2B) relationships and that the cooperatives, vaccinators, drug suppliers and care takers should be supported to participate in such businesses. supported. Market linkage both local and international should also be strengthened in the next phase.In this section we bring the results of the two previous sections together and present the contribution analysis (Table 14). As described in Section 2.1 on realist evaluations, we aimed to explain causation through observable and non-observable processes. Based on the ToC reflections and the KAP survey carried out in Ethiopia and the validation workshop with the project team, only the results with regard to changes in three of the initial four next user groups are presented, namely a) Small ruminant producers, b) Development Agents, and c) Policy makers. As there were no significant interventions with 'input suppliers and service providers' and as 'youth groups' were added later, both were not considered in the contribution analysis.The project had envisaged that the government DAs (ToC Strategy) would acquire and use the knowledge, skills and tools to promote and support implementation of SmaRT Pack. However, although they were trained by the project, they were not seen as contact points by farmers on information and advice on sheep production and management (KAP survey). In most locations the DAs could not be involved in promoting SmaRT pack as they were busy with other government duties. Nonetheless the project was able to develop new and private service providers and/or extension agents in the form of research enumerators and champion farmers to take up identified opportunities for market-oriented services and inputs. For instance, although youth groups were trained in sheep fattening, ensured availability of inputs and health services, and also access to markets, the KAP study indicated that their production was not fully commercialized as they needed access to finance to sustain the value addition via changed practices introduced in other activities. This called for including partners with expertise on designing financial products and services suitable for small ruminant producers in the project team. This reinforces the need for integrated teams and integrated planning to ensure achievement of outcomes.Most outcomes (early as well as intermediate) are expressed as composite statements consisting of several parts. For example, in the context of producers the project envisaged increased productivity while lowering their environmental footprint and simultaneously increasing their income. Contribution analysis as an approach and methodology has limitations to measure the (extent of) change in all these aspects (climate and income in the example above) and requires a combination of tools and data sources to ascertain the change.Annex 1. Survey questions KAP Survey SmaRT pack project ","tokenCount":"8706"}

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In this paper we trace the history of Malawi's subsidy program over the past 70 years, describing how the country arrived at that watershed moment earlier this century and how the subsidy program has developed since. We show how donor support for the program has wavered and how external pressure to remove the subsidy has repeatedly been unsuccessful. We also demonstrate how over the years the program's total fiscal burden has fluctuated significantly. However, we find that since the expansion of the subsidy program in 2004, the fiscal costs of the program have shown little correlation with the maize harvest that same agricultural season. We show that the subsidy program has succeeded in raising awareness about the value of the fertilizer for increased crop productivity. However, despite its continued prominence in the country's agricultural policy, most Malawian smallholder do not manage to grow sufficient maize to feed their households throughout the year, and every year millions depend on food assistance during the worst months of the lean season.Higher crop productivity, particularly of maize, has been a central agricultural development objective for Malawi since the colonial period. Increasing the use by Malawian farming households of inorganic fertilizer coupled with improved crop varieties has been among the principal techniques promoted to increase crop yields. Efforts to raise awareness of the value of these commercial inputs to increase crop productivity and production have been successful. Inorganic fertilizer is now widely viewed by farming households as a critical component of their farming, necessary to ensure that they can produce sufficient maize to meet their consumption needs, in particular. However, more problematic has been ensuring that farming households can use inorganic fertilizer on their maize crop profitably, given the relatively high, internationally-determined price they must pay for the input and the relatively low prices they receive in local markets for their fertilized maize output. Moreover, almost all crops, including fertilized maize, are grown under rainfed conditions, which can be quite variable from season to season or from place to place within the same season. The possibility of drought or flood increases the risk of financial loss when using fertilizer on rainfed maize. Because of this problematic financial analysis of fertilized maize production, the government of Malawi has regularly subsidized fertilizer and improved maize seed for a large share of its smallholder farmers. The annual fiscal costs of these programs have been up to 3.0 percent of Malawi's GDP, depending on the number of farmers benefitting, the price of inorganic fertilizer and improved seed internationally, and the level of subsidy on the price of inputs provided to beneficiary farmers. For example, in the 2022/23 rainfed farming season, the Affordable Inputs Programme targeted 2.5 million farming households nationally-about two-thirds of all farming households-at a (provisional) cost of about 1.6 percent of Malawi's GDP. 1   In this paper, we examine the experience over the past 70 years of Malawi's national input subsidy program. Our focus is on the provision of inorganic fertilizer for use primarily in maize production, so we do not consider in detail the parallel supply of subsidized improved seed, whether of maize or other crops. We show how the objectives of the program have wavered between increasing awareness among farmers of the benefits of inorganic fertilizer application, on the one hand, and increasing national maize production and ensuring food security for smallholder farming households, on the other. In tracing this history, we detail the influence of the donor community in shaping reforms. Donors have sometimes supported the subsidy program, including financially, while at other times argued for its removal. Numerous donor-supported efforts to end the subsidy program and replace it with other approaches to achieve its objectives have been unsuccessful.Despite over two decades of significant subsidies on the price of fertilizer used to grow maize, millions of Malawians continue to rely on food aid for several months every year, being unable to produce or otherwise access sufficient maize to meet the needs of their household members. Survey data show how only a minority of farming households produce more maize than they consume. In graphing the relation between yearly food production and the size of the subsidy program, we note that the years of highest spending on fertilizer subsidies did not consistently result in the largest national harvest levels. This suggests that a leaner subsidy program will not necessarily result in reduced production, while it would free up scarce government resources for other programs and investments.Historically, smallholder agricultural systems in most areas of Malawi relied on shifting cultivation or crop-fallow systems to sustain soil nutrient levels for crop production. However, with the sharp increase in Malawi's population over the past century, there is simply not enough land in Malawi to continue using these traditional soil fertility management methods. Households now generally plant crops on the land to which they have use rights every year. With repeated maize cropping without regularly resting the land in fallow or planting the land in rotation with nitrogen-fixing leguminous crops, most of the plant nutrients in the soil, particularly nitrogen, have been exhausted. This has resulted in low productivity of around 1.0 mt/ha for unimproved local maize varieties grown without fertilizer.However, inorganic fertilizers, particularly those with high nitrogen content, if used efficiently with locally-suited improved maize seed and good crop management, can result in maize yields that are several times higher. Already in the 1920s, some colonial settlers used inorganic fertilizers in the production of tea or tobacco on their estates. Research on fertilizer use on maize in Malawi began after World War II as a component of a significant expansion and acceleration in the agricultural development efforts of the colonial government directed toward smallholders (McCracken, 2012). Agricultural researchers by 1958 had delineated the major nutrient response patterns in the application of inorganic fertilizer to maize across Malawi, identifying where profitable use of inorganic fertilizers on maize could be obtained (Brown, 1966). Relatively strong responses in maize yield to the application of nitrogen were found in the upland plateau areas where most farming in the country is done, with lower responses seen along the lakeshore and considerably more limited responses in the Lower Shire Valley. The responses to the application of phosphate fertilizer were less clear, as they were not always seen or, if seen, were not necessarily at a level sufficient to suggest that the use of phosphate fertilizer on maize would be profitable for the farmer. This earliest delineation of the spatial distribution of maize yield response to inorganic fertilizer in Malawi remains broadly applicable.Further work on the suitability of different types of inorganic fertilizers for use on maize led to the promotion of urea (46:0:0-N:P2O5:K2O) as the principal source of nitrogen, given urea's relatively cheaper cost per unit of nitrogen relative to other nitrogenous fertilizers, and diammonium phosphate (DAP-18:46:0) as the source of phosphate for maize. A blanket fertilizer recommendation for maize in Malawi of 96 kgN and 40 kgP2O5 per hectare was promoted by the Ministry of Agriculture in the 1980s and 1990s. The fertilizer is applied to the maize in two doses-DAP at planting or soon thereafter-the basal dose-and urea about four weeks after maize seedling emergence. However, researchers subsequently found that sulfur also needed to be applied to obtain the highest maize yields. Area-specific fertilizer recommendations that emerged from extensive field trials in the mid-1990s led to the replacement of DAP with 23:21:0+4S as the basal fertilizer for maize. Subsequent work led to the recommendation that the basal fertilizer also include some potassium and zinc. Starting with the 2018/19 cropping season, 23:10:5+6S+1.0Zn and urea have been the fertilizer types used in the input subsidy program.The research done in the mid-1990s on maize yield response patterns to the application of inorganic fertilizer across Malawi found that smallholder farming households in the main maize-producing areas of the country should be able to obtain around 8.0 kg of additional maize grain for every kg of fertilizer applied if the crop is planted on reasonably good land; hybrid seed and the inorganic fertilizer is obtained before the planting rains come; and the household can manage the weeds, pests, and diseases that threaten their crop and can apply sufficient labor to the crop when required in its growth cycle (Benson T. , 2021, p. 49). However, evaluations of Malawi's input subsidy program have consistently shown that beneficiary farmers obtain much lower maize yield responses to the subsidized fertilizer they apply. For example, Lunduka, Ricker-Gilbert, and Fisher (2013) computed a response rate of only 2.7 kg of maize grain per kilogram of fertilizer applied over three years of the program from 2005/06 to 2008/09. This stark difference between the potentially achievable maize production per unit of fertilizer applied and what beneficiaries of the input subsidy program achieve is largely a result of the operational challenges facing the input subsidy program and the declining health of the soils farmers use. Complex processes to procure fertilizer from overseas sources often result in late delivery of the inputs to farming households. In consequence, they are unable to use the subsidized fertilizer in an agronomically optimal manner (Jayne, Mason, Burke, & Ariga, 2018).Nonetheless, the production benefits that farming households in Malawi receive from using inorganic fertilizer on maize are clear to them-75 percent of farming households producing improved maize varieties in 2019/20 applied inorganic fertilizer to the crop; 65 percent of those producing local (unimproved) maize also did so. Many of these households would not have been able to apply fertilizer to their maize without the input subsidy program. The maintenance of the program in Malawi over many years and at a relatively large scale-both in terms of the share of farming households benefitting and the value of the subsidy they receive-is in response to this demand from smallholder farmers. In addition, such a large-scale input subsidy program serves Malawi's leaders well in meeting the expectations of the citizens of Malawi as to how those leaders are expected to safeguard the livelihoods and food security of their constituents (Sahley, Groelsma, Marchione, & Nelson, 2005).Input subsidies were a relatively common element in the agricultural development programs of developing countries in the 1960s and 1970s and typically required significant government financing every year. While such programs were to be eliminated under the structural adjustment reforms low-income countries negotiated with international donors in the 1980s and 1990s, by the late 1990s many had elected to reestablish them, often with the support of donors. Over the past 25 years, input subsidy programs have become a common policy choice, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, to bolster agricultural development and to address food insecurity by increasing the productivity of staple food crops (Jayne and Rashid 2013). The designs of several input subsidy programs implemented in recent years in countries in Africa, including Malawi, are presented in Annex Table 1.In the literature on agricultural development strategies, farm input subsidies are advocated as a short to medium-term approach to increase adoption by farmers of commercial high-productivity inputs and other technologies. 2 Such subsidies reduce the financial risks farmers face as they learn how to profitably use the commercial inputs in their farming. In the 1960s and 1970s in the agricultural development programs of developing countries, the principal justification for providing farmers with subsidies on newly introduced high-productivity technologies was to accelerate their adoption. Farmers in low-income countries generally apply lower amounts of farm inputs than is economically optimal-that level of application of the input at which the value of additional crop output is equal to the cost of an additional unit of input. This suboptimal use was attributed to farmers not having sufficient experience with and, hence, the information they required to accurately estimate the gains they could make from using the new inputs. This results in a market failure, in that farmers are not producing as much output as they profitably might produce with increased input use, resulting in reduced crop supply, higher food crop prices, and a cost to society. For agricultural development objectives, governments will provide subsidies on commercial farm inputs to temporarily reduce the costs and financial risks farmers face in using the inputs. By enabling farmers to employ the inputs at a lower cost for several seasons, farmers are expected to learn how to consistently employ them profitably and better understand the risks they must manage in doing so, even when the inputs are purchased at full cost (Ellis, 1992, p. 137ff). Where agricultural development considerations dominate the decision to provide farmers with farm input subsidies, the intent is that such subsidy programs will only be implemented for a few years to build farmers' experience with their use. Enabling farmers to better understand which components of a package of highproductivity crop inputs would work best for their particular agro-ecological and economic context was certainly an important driver in justifying input subsidy programs in Malawi until 2000, including with the Starter Pack and the Targeted Inputs Programme (TIP) between 1998/99 and 2001/02 (Mann, 1998;Levy, 2005).However, in food-insecure countries, including Malawi, input subsidy programs have also been particularly attractive as a means to address chronic food insecurity and to reduce the risks of acute food insecurity crises. In such contexts, providing price subsidies on inputs to correct for market failures that result in socially sub-optimal levels of use generally will be a secondary motivation to the potentially important increases in food crop production associated with significantly greater use of high-productivity inputs. In farming systems with a large share of households engaged in subsistence-oriented farming, input subsidies directly increase access to food for the farming households that receive the inputs. In this, subsidized inputs also can play a role in government social protection programs by providing chronically food insecure farming households with increased access to food by raising their yields of food crops for their own consumption. In addition, the higher staple food crop production resulting from increased use of high-productivity inputs due to the subsidies should also increase the volume of food crops supplied to markets by beneficiaries of the subsidy. This increased supply serves to stabilize or reduce food prices, improving access to food for households reliant on those markets, both non-farming and farming. Through these linkages, the benefits of input subsidies on the production of staple foods, in particular, accrue to both farmers and consumers (Chirwa & Dorward, 2013). While enabling farmers to better understand how best to use high-productivity crop inputs was the explicit motivation for the earliest input subsidy programs in Malawi, since about 2000, it has been the contribution that wide distribution of subsidized farm inputs makes to food security at both household and national levels that has justified their continuation. Food security, rather than agricultural development, drives the design and implementation of such input subsidy programs.Particularly in countries prone to food insecurity, like Malawi, but also Zambia, input subsidy programs are the largest public investments in agriculture. Moreover, such programs can constitute among the largest development expenditures made by the government, often amounting annually to several percent of the country's GDP-for example, expenditures on input subsidies constituted 49.8 percent of all public expenditures in support of food and agriculture in Malawi between 2006and 2013(FAO 2015). The design of such programs in food insecure countries tends also to be at a large scale with high subsidies on the market cost of the inputs provided and wide coverage across the country's farming population. In contrast, in less food insecure low-income developing countries, farm input subsidy programs are designed primarily to achieve agricultural development objectives and tend to be relatively smaller in scale and cost. The subsidies provided to farmers in such countries tend to be a smaller share of the full market costs of the inputs and there is less attention to targeting the subsidies to specific groups of farmers, such as only the food insecure. This is evident in comparing the input subsidy programs of Malawi and Zambia, which are relatively food-insecure countries, to those of the other countries listed in Annex Table 1, most of which are relatively more food-secure.As discussed, subsidies on the price of farm inputs have frequently been an element in efforts to increase the adoption of high-productivity cropping technologies. Such subsidies enable farmers to become more experienced in the profitable use of the inputs when they are not familiar with the technologies. While in the colonial and early post-colonial periods in Malawi, this information constraint on the profitable and effective use of inorganic fertilizer to produce crops certainly was operative, farmers now are reasonably familiar with how they might use fertilizer effectively. Rather, the major constraint preventing the increased use of fertilizer in Malawi is that farming households cannot afford it.The price of inorganic fertilizer relative to the price of maize in Malawi is at the center of the challenge of profitably using fertilizer. All inorganic fertilizer used in Malawi is imported. While Malawi has rock phosphate deposits in Phalombe district that could be exploited to produce phosphate fertilizer, urea, the fertilizer most important to the production of maize, given maize's high-nitrogen requirements, is produced globally in large-scale, capital-intensive production facilities in locations with access to relatively low-cost energy and to much larger markets than Malawi alone can provide. The cost of production overseas plus the cost of shipment of the fertilizer into the country results in high fertilizer prices in Malawi. In August 2021, a 50 kg bag of urea cost about MK 38,000 (Nyondo, Nyirenda, Burke, & Myuanga, 2021)-this was before an almost doubling in price after the outbreak of Russia's war in Ukraine in early 2022. In the same month, traders were selling maize to retail consumers at MK 7,000 per 50 kg bag (IFPRI-Malawi, 2021), while producers selling maize to traders almost certainly received even lower prices. This urea (MK 38,000) to maize (MK 7,000) price ratio of about 5.4 provides a benchmark for what level of agronomic response farmers in Malawi using commercial fertilizer on their maize would have needed to obtain in 2021 to break even on the cost of any commercial fertilizer they used. As noted, farmers in Malawi using best production practices on reasonably good cropland should be able to obtain around 8.0 kg of additional maize grain for every kg of fertilizer applied. However, evaluations of the maize yield response to fertilizer in input subsidy programs show that most do not. Many farmers will not achieve production of 5.4 kg of maize for every kg of fertilizer applied, so will incur a financial loss on their fertilized maize production if they purchase the fertilizer at the full commercial price with no subsidies applied.Fertilizer importers in Malawi have little control over the prices they must pay for the input. While the government could intervene forcefully in agricultural markets to ensure farmers receive significantly higher prices for their maize to better cover the cost of commercial fertilizer used in producing that maize, higher maize prices will exacerbate food insecurity for many poor Malawian households. Moreover, the fiscal costs the government will incur in managing the increased stocks of maize farmers would produce in response to higher administratively determined prices-not prices determined by supply and demand levels for maize in the market-would be prohibitively high (Baulch & Botha, 2020). In choosing between higher maize prices for farmers and affordable maize prices for poor consumers, the more acceptable policy option has consistently been to adopt the latter. Given the challenges to agricultural production levels and food security posed by generally weak agronomic performance in the use of inorganic fertilizer on maize coupled with high fertilizer-to-maize price ratios, the Malawian government has primarily acted to reduce the price ratio by subsidizing the cost of fertilizer, usually quite sharply. This has been seen repeatedly in the history of input subsidy programs in Malawi over the past 75 years.In 1952 the colonial government started supplying subsidized fertilizer to smallholder farmers. The Director of the colonial Department of Agriculture reported \"There is no doubt that fertilizers will be absolutely essential to more intensive farming. … It is therefore the policy to encourage the use of appropriate fertilizers and to assist in so doing by a small subsidy payment (Kettlewell, 1955).\" The provision of subsidies on crop inputs continued in independent Malawi under the leadership of Kamuzu Banda. Between 1964 and 1970, the government of newly independent Malawi instituted a price subsidy that allowed smallholders to buy fertilizer at below the import parity price for the input through the Farmers Marketing Board. In 1971, the Farmers Marketing Board was reconstituted to become the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC). Among its principal responsibilities was maintaining an efficient system for supplying inputs to smallholder farmers. While ADMARC was not explicitly mandated to subsidize fertilizer, it did so without budget support for a time using revenues obtained from implicitly taxing cash crops produced by smallholders (Phiri C. D., 1993). However, ADMARC faced financial difficulties in the early 1980s, so it found it increasingly challenging to supply inputs to smallholders. In 1983, the government established the Smallholder Farmers Fertilizer Revolving Fund of Malawi (SFFRFM) to take over these responsibilities. This included managing a fertilizer buffer stock under commodity aid arrangements with donors.In the 1970s and 1980s, there existed two parallel fertilizer pricing systems-one for smallholders that was managed by ADMARC and then SFFRFM and one for the agricultural estates that were supplied by commercial agricultural input firms, including Optichem, Agricultural Trading Company, and Norsk Hydro. Smallholders received relatively small subsidies of up to 25 percent of the commercial cost that were applied to fertilizer at the point of sale (Blackie, et al., 1998). However, much of this subsidized fertilizer was diverted to estates rather than to smallholder farming households, the intended beneficiaries (Devereux, 1997). Smallholder credit schemes using group lending approaches with farmers-the government-operated Smallholder Agricultural Credit Administration (SACA) from 1988 to 1994 and the parastatal Malawi Rural Finance Company (MRFC) for several years from 1994-were the principal avenues for farming households to obtain financing to purchase the inorganic fertilizer, given that they still bore a significant share of the cost of the input even after the subsidy was applied (Dorward & Kydd, 2004). (See Annex Table 2 for a summary of input subsidy programs in Malawi from the Banda era to the present.)Up until the 1980s, government and donors were aligned in their thinking that Malawi's fertilizer subsidies encouraged rapid adoption of the input and would contribute to sustained farm output growth. However, with the rising fiscal costs of maintaining them, Malawi's international donors became less supportive of the subsidies on fertilizer for smallholders. Starting in 1982/83 and running through 1992/93, the donors supported three successive Fertiliser Subsidy Removal Programs (FSRP) to enable the government to eliminate the subsidies over the medium term (Phiri H. H., 2013). However, surging international prices for fertilizer and domestic political concerns resulted in none of the FSRPs being successfully implemented.One response to drought-induced food insecurity crises in 1992 and again in 1994 was providing free seed and fertilizer under the Supplementary Inputs Program (Devereux, 1997). While in the program's first year, only local maize seed was distributed to beneficiaries, in the 1994/95 and 1995/96 seasons, subsidized fertilizer was also supplied. This was among the first, if not the first, agricultural input distribution program in Malawi specifically directed to achieve food security objectives. Although not universal, the program was relatively large, benefiting between one-quarter and one-third of all farming households. International donors provided significant financial support to the government to cover the program's costs. Devereux notes that the suitability of input subsidies as a response to food crises was raised in discussions between the government and its development partners, since it was clear that such programs have \"little sustainable impact on food security in those households which are unable to purchase inputs unless they are at least heavily subsidized\". Whether or not such programs should be designed to promote \"national food security objectives by targeting high-yielding areas and farmers and make no attempt at achieving household food security goals in marginal areas (1997, p. 4)\" motivates similar discussions 30 years later.The government of Malawi agreed to a package of structural adjustment reforms in the 1980s and early 1990s to maintain support from international donors. These reforms included currency devaluation, reduced government spending, and liberalizing and reducing government involvement in agricultural production, marketing, and finance. By 1996/97, with the end of the Supplementary Inputs Program and a cessation in the offer of subsidized fertilizer through ADMARC and SFFRFM, input subsidies were eliminated as part of these agreements. So, the objectives of the earlier failed FSRP efforts were achieved for one or two years. However, over this period the real costs of inorganic fertilizer rose sharply with the foreign exchange reforms. The adverse impact of the reduced access of farmers to fertilizer because of higher prices became sharply evident with the maize harvest of the 1996/97 cropping season. Due in part to low fertilizer use, many farming households harvested far less than their annual maize requirements. Maize prices began rising sharply a few months after harvest, resulting in the government releasing maize from its strategic grain reserve (Blackie, et al., 1998).To respond to this intensifying chronic food crisis, in 1998/99, the government of Malawi implemented the Starter Pack program (Harrigan, 2008). Despite the structural adjustment reform commitments to end subsidies on inputs, the program involved distributing free of charge to almost all 2.8 million smallholder farming households in the country sufficient hybrid maize seed and inorganic fertilizer to plant 0.1 ha of fertilized maize-2 kg of seed and 15 kg of fertilizer. Grain legume seed was also included in the package to promote the use of nitrogen-fixing legume rotations and intercrops for sustainable soil fertility management alongside inorganic fertilizer and to improve household dietary diversity. Malawi's development partners, particularly the United Kingdom, provided significant support to the universal Starter Pack program for two years. The incremental annual maize production attributed to the program was estimated at 350,000 mt, a significant contribution to the then national maize demand of 2 million mt annually (Levy, 2005). The cost of the Starter Pack program each year was USD 26 million, about 1.5 percent of Malawi's GDP at the time.While a food crisis prompted the Starter Pack program, in its design, the classic argument for input subsidies as a way for farmers to gain the information they require to profitably employ the inputs in their farming was used-the small packs of inputs would allow farmers to determine which production technologies were their \"best bets\" for profitable, high-productivity production in their particular agro-ecological and economic context (Mann, 1998). However, a rigorous review of the program found this rationale flawed since profitable production of fertilized maize by smallholders in Malawi was almost impossible to achieve, given the sharp rise in the price of fertilizer (Levy, Barahona, & Chinsinga, 2004;Levy, 2005). The program was not an effective agricultural development mechanism. However, from a food security perspective, the universal Starter Pack was found to be an effective and relatively efficient way to reduce chronic food insecurity and the adverse effects that acute food crises have on the livelihoods, assets, and welfare of households across Malawi. While a relatively costly program, the Starter Pack evaluation team asserted that the costs of not implementing it would have been much higher if both the direct cost of alternative food security interventions and the indirect costs due to macroeconomic instability caused by an ongoing food crisis were considered (Levy, Barahona, & Chinsinga, 2004).The Starter Pack was replaced with the Targeted Inputs Program (TIP) for the 2000/01 and 2001/02 cropping seasons. Providing a similar small packet of inputs as the Starter Pack, the principal difference was that the TIP was not distributed to all farming households, but was targeted to half of all farming households in the first year and to one-third in the second. Malawi's donors continued to support the input program, but their support was conditional on it being targeted. The donors felt this was necessary to reduce the fiscal burden of the program and so that it would primarily provide support to the most vulnerable households-a social protection objective. Evaluations of TIP generally found that it was considerably more problematic to implement and had less impact on food security than the Starter Pack. The targeting required of the TIP was shown to be ineffective with very little difference between the poverty profile of TIP beneficiary households and that of smallholder farming households as a whole. This was attributed both to no clear targeting criteria being part of the program design and to the use of a community targeting process in a socio-cultural context that promoted a strong spirit of egalitarianism and the view that all in the rural communities were poor and in need of such assistance (Chinsinga, 2005). The reduced scale of TIP compared to the Starter Pack, together with poor cropping weather conditions in both seasons, resulted in significantly lower incremental production due to the subsidized inputs-an estimated 75,000 mt from 1.5 million beneficiary households in 2000/01 and 40,000 mt from 1.0 million households in 2001/02. The design changes made in replacing the Starter Pack with TIP, coupled with the poor rainfall conditions, undermined the national food security potential of TIP (Levy, Barahona, & Chinsinga, 2004).Despite the provision of subsidized inputs through TIP, a food crisis occurred following the 2001/02 cropping season. In part in response to this, the Extended TIP was implemented in the following two years with considerable donor support. As targeting was viewed to be an important reason for the poor performance of TIP in reaching the most food-insecure households in beneficiary communities, the Extended TIP provided free inputs to most smallholder farming households. The input package in the first year of the Extended TIP was similar to that provided for the Starter Pack, but in the second year, the inputs provided to each beneficiary increased by 150 percent-sufficient inputs for planting 0.25 ha of fertilized maize. The second year of the Extended TIP in 2003/04 was implemented just before the elections of May 2004 in which Bingu wa Mutharika replaced the term-barred Bakili Muluzi as president. That upcoming election likely was a factor in expanding the scale of the Extended TIP that year.In the 2004/05 cropping season following the election of President B. Mutharika, despite political promises of a universal input subsidy program being rolled out, the efforts to do so were ineffective, resulting in a poor national harvest, high maize prices, and many households facing acute food insecurity (Chirwa & Dorward, 2013). In response, for the 2005/06 season, the new president provided considerable political support to the implementation of a significantly larger input program, the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP). The objectives of FISP differed somewhat from earlier input subsidy programs in that maize self-sufficiency was key. There was less emphasis in its design on directly meeting the food needs of vulnerable farming households. Rather, the emphasis was on beneficiaries as farmers and producers, rather than as consumers (Chirwa & Dorward, 2013, p. 89). In its first year, this involved providing improved open-pollinated variety (OPV) maize seed (no hybrid) and 100 kg of fertilizer suitable for maize or tobacco to 1.3 million households selected by community leaders. Beneficiaries paid 36 percent of the market cost of the inputs. At a cost of about 1.0 percent of Malawi's GDP at the time, the program generated incremental maize production estimated at 350,000 mt.The 2004/05 input subsidy program was generally viewed as a success. The framework established through this larger-scale program in that year was further refined in the following years through at least 2011/12 to improve program performance, security, and accountability (Chirwa & Dorward, 2013). This included some changes to the targeting criteria so that vulnerable households within communities would be more likely to benefit. However, throughout FISP implementation, there remained significant ambiguity in those criteria and in the community targeting processes used (Chirwa & Dorward, 2013).In its early years, FISP was generally viewed as a successful input subsidy program that contributed to agricultural growth and development and to food security in Malawi. The annual incremental maize production attributed to the program ranged between 350,000 and 900,000 mt between 2005/06 and 2011/12. It also provided political benefits-President B. Mutharika used the good performance of the program as an important element of his successful reelection bid in 2009. On the continental stage within the context of the African Union, he also advocated for the program to be a model for other African countries to replicate to achieve similar development advances. However, fiscally, it was an expensive program that certainly imposed opportunity costs on many other necessary human and economic development efforts in Malawi. During President B. Mutharika's second term, there was increased debate on the value of FISP for achieving the country's broader development vision. More voices expressing general dissatisfaction with the design and value of FISP were raised following his death in office in April 2012 and through the term of his successor, Joyce Banda. However, FISP continued to be implemented following the design established earlier, providing about 1.5 million farming households annually with improved seed and 100 kg of fertilizer.Two months after the election of Peter Mutharika as president of Malawi in 2014, the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources convened a two-day stakeholder consultation entitled 'Eight years of FISP -Impact and what next?' (LUANAR, 2014). The symposium was held at a time when the government of Malawi was facing severe budget restrictions due to a suspension of international donor support following the revelation in 2013 of the illicit diversion of government funds-the so-called Cashgate scandal. In consequence, fiscal prudence required that the FISP program be implemented more efficiently. Discussion at the symposium, officially opened by the new Minister of Agriculture, generally agreed that FISP was an essential component of the country's overall economic development. However, participants also recognized that the program was not as efficient and effective as it might be. A recurrent point of discussion was defining the specific objective of FISP-was it primarily to provide for the welfare of the rural poor or, rather, to lay the foundation for a transformation of agriculture in Malawi? It was agreed that a single program design cannot effectively achieve both objectives. A set of recommended program design changes emerged from the symposium. At the same time, it was recognized that several complementary public investments would be needed if FISP was to contribute to achieving agricultural transformation or a broad restructuring of the economy of Malawi. These include investments in rural transport infrastructure, agricultural markets, agricultural extension services, and agricultural research. Investing in FISP alone was viewed as not sufficient to achieve these broad development objectives.FISP was downscaled under President P. Mutharika, primarily to achieve significant reductions in cost as the government grappled with the consequences of sharply reduced donor support overall. The value of the subsidy beneficiaries received on the farm inputs was reduced from above 90 percent to under 80 percent in 2015/16 and then to 66 percent in the following years. The number of beneficiaries was also reduced from 1.5 million to 900,000. However, political considerations ended any further reforms to FISP. The three main political parties contesting the presidential election of 2019 all promised to implement a universal input subsidy program for smallholder farmers. After the 2019 results were annulled, the two main coalitions that contested the rerun of the election in 2020 both maintained the universal input subsidy on their policy platforms.With the election of President Chakwera in June 2020, planning began to launch the Affordable Inputs Programme (AIP) in the 2020/21 cropping season. AIP combined the near-universal nature of the Starter Pack program of the late 1990s with the provision of a much larger input package similar to that received by the targeted beneficiaries of FISP: 3.8 million beneficiaries were each offered 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer plus improved seed. The cost of AIP was over 1.5 percent of Malawi's GDP in its inaugural season, representing, as was the case in the early years of FISP, one of the largest public investment programs of the government. The program was declared a success as Malawi produced a bumper harvest on the back of favorable rains, but its fiscal sustainability was questioned. In the following two years, the expenditure on the program was reduced to just under 1 percent of GDP. In 2022/23, the worldwide rise of fertilizer prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 resulted in an even greater reduction in the number of AIP beneficiaries to 2.5 million and a reduction in the amount of subsidy applied to the price of fertilizer. A further reduction in the size of the program to 1.5 million beneficiaries is planned for the 2023/24 growing season.Figure 1 presents a historical summary of fertilizer subsidies since they were re-introduced in Malawi in the late 1990s following their phase-out just a few years earlier as part of structural adjustment reforms. Three pieces of information are given for each year from 1999 to 2023. First, the bars represent the size of the input subsidy program during the growing season that ended that year, expressed in millions of USD. Second, total maize production in the subsidy program year is depicted by irregular line. That harvest can be compared with total maize requirements in Malawi, depicted by the smooth upwardsloping line-maize requirements in the country grow steadily with population growth. improved starting in 2006 following the introduction of FISP. The two years in which maize harvest did not meet the national requirement saw poor rains (2016) and extensive flooding due to a tropical cyclone (2018). Harvests remained relatively good even in the four years when the program was drastically reduced (2017-2020). Except for a bumper harvest in 2020, which could be attributed to unusually favorable rains in the first year of AIP implementation, harvest levels remained similar after the re-expansion of subsidies under AIP. However, as Malawi's growing population requires more and more maize, these higher levels of production to which the subsidized fertilizer contributes may soon again be insufficient to feed the nation.National-level self-sufficiencyThe sustained improvement in maize output following the introduction of FISP in the 2005/06 growing season suggests that a subsidy program of sufficient size can help boost maize production to levels that meet the national requirement for maize consumption. The fact that maize harvests remained, on average, unchanged when subsidies were temporarily reduced between 2017 and 2020 further suggests that increased levels of maize production can be maintained at a considerably lower cost than that of the current AIP. However, production will have to rise further to keep up with Malawi's growing population, and there is little to suggest that subsidies alone can achieve this.The picture is more worrying at the household level. Despite the input subsidy program, most smallholder farmers do not produce enough maize to achieve self-sufficiency. This is obvious from two facts.First, even in years with favorable rains, millions of people need food support during the 2 or 3 months that constitute the lean season before the harvest of the following crop. Figure 2 shows the yearly surplus or shortfall of maize production as a fraction of the total maize requirement in that year, along with the share of the population that needed food assistance during the following lean season. Over the past two decades, Malawi produced, on average, 23 percent more maize than it needed. However, in an average year, 13 percent of its population was food insecure during the lean season. Second, most Malawian smallholder farmers do not produce enough maize to be self-sufficient. Figure 3 uses household-level data from the fifth (2019/20) round of the Integrated Household Survey to categorize households in Malawi into those not producing maize, producing maize but insufficient to feed their household for the whole year, and producing more than what is required for their own consumption needs. While 75 percent of all households in Malawi grow maize, only 17 percent grow more than they need to be self-sufficient. There is an important wealth gradient to these numbers. The poorer the household, the more likely it is to grow maize and the less likely it is to grow enough for its own food needs. Among those in the poorest quintile of households, 85 percent grow maize, but only 5 percent achieve maize self-sufficiency. Among households in the wealthiest quintile, only 52 percent grow maize, but the majority of those produce sufficient amounts to achieve self-sufficiency. 3   It is clear, therefore, that while fertilizer subsidies have helped Malawi become self-sufficient in maize as a nation, those subsidy programs have failed to enable most households to produce enough maize for their own needs. In other words, most Malawians must supplement their own maize production with maize bought from the relatively few large surplus producers or from importers.3 The importance of food purchases in a variety of rural contexts in Sub-Saharan Africa was recently highlighted by Dzanku et al. (2024). These authors present survey evidence from 7 African countries, including Malawi, to show how food purchased on the market dominates rural food consumption, across a variety of agroecological zones, income levels and food products.-40% Despite a large fertilizer subsidy program, there are three main reasons why household-level self-sufficiency remains elusive.  The first is Malawi's growing population, which increased by 28 percent during the 2010s. Most family farms have nowhere to expand, so the growing population leads to land fragmentation.The average farm size declined by 14 percent during the same period and will likely keep shrinking. A typical Malawian family must thus scrape a living from an ever smaller piece of land, making self-sufficiency in maize production increasingly difficult, even with boosted productivity (Benson & De Weerdt, 2023). The second challenge revolves around soil health. Omuto and Vargas (2018) have documented the occurrence of soil acidification in Malawi, showing a decline in average soil pH levels from 6.29 in 2010 to 5.61 in 2017. Concurrently, topsoil loss has increased by 10% during the same timeframe, exacerbating the overall deterioration of soil fertility. This trend diminishes the responsiveness of maize yields to fertilizer applications among smallholder farmers. Farmers with low fertilizer yield response rates are unlikely to grow enough maize to feed their families whether they receive subsidized fertilizer or not, but especially so if their farms are small. One could argue that in the absence of fertilizer subsidies, many farming households would be even less self-sufficient in maize production than they currently are and that the subsidies, therefore, serve an important social protection function. This is likely true. However, it is more helpful to ask whether the same households would not be better off if the funds currently spent to subsidize their fertilizer were used to help them meet their maize consumption requirements in a different manner.The simplest benchmark is how well off a farming household would be if, instead of a fertilizer subsidy, the household received the equivalent value of the subsidy in cash. Suppose the subsidy reduces the fertilizer-to-crop price ratio for a household, as discussed in Section 3, below the fertilizer yield response rate for the farming household. In that case, the household will be better off with the subsidy. However, if even with the subsidy, the fertilizer-to-crop price ratio remains above the yield response rate the household can realize, the household will produce less maize with the subsidized fertilizer than it would be able to buy with the cash equivalent to the value of the subsidy. In such cases, a cash transfer would bring more benefit to the farming household and would likely be cheaper than the subsidy, even if maize had to be imported. Unfortunately, many households that benefit from the subsidy fall into this category, making the farm input subsidy programs in Malawi a poor social protection tool (De Weerdt & Duchoslav, 2022).Large-scale input subsidies seem to have helped boost total maize output in Malawi beyond its national requirement. During the eight years before the introduction of FISP, the country produced, on average, 1.9 million MT of maize annually. During the FISP and AIP years, the annual maize production averaged 3.4 million MT-an increase of 81 percent.However, the scale of FISP in the initial years of its existence may have been unnecessarily largemaize production levels remained high at 3.3 million MT annually on average during the first four years of FISP (Figure 1) even as the number of FISP beneficiaries was cut by more than half. More recently, the scale of AIP could similarly be considered too large. This suggests that similar levels of maize output could be maintained with a much smaller and, thus, cheaper subsidy program. For a pared-down subsidy program to achieve the maximum possible national maize production, the subsidy should be targeted at farmers who can use fertilizer most efficiently, ideally through a pricing mechanism (Duchoslav & De Weerdt, 2023). Ensuring that farmers who can use fertilizer efficiently can access enough of it is important for the country's food security. The ability of unproductive farmers to access cheap fertilizer is less critical for national food security.Many farmers can raise their productivity by adopting better agricultural technologies, including soil health management, irrigation, improved seed varieties, more precise fertilizer application, etc. The government can help them with this through providing effective agricultural extension services and by ensuring that inputs are available to farmers at the right time. However, even with higher yields, many farming families will still not be able to produce enough maize to feed themselves, let alone to make a profit. These farmers will be better off growing other crops or moving out of agriculture altogether (Benson & De Weerdt, 2023). Many will need help with the transition, including through adequate social protection programs. What such programs should look like is beyond the scope of this paper. However, they should not take the form of an input subsidy program like AIP, which gives many of its beneficiaries less benefit than they would derive from an equivalent cash transfer and which effectively requires them to remain subsistence farmers, even if they are not good at growing maize.A pivot towards a leaner subsidy program would mean giving up on the goal of household-level food self-sufficiency. However, that goal has never been achieved since Malawi reintroduced large-scale fertilizer subsidies, and it is becoming ever less attainable as the country's population grows and farm sizes shrink. Focusing on national instead of household-level food self-sufficiency would better align expectations with reality. Thankfully, the fact that not all households can grow enough maize to feed themselves does not mean that they must go hungry-quite the opposite. Every country that has achieved prosperity for all has done so by moving away from subsistence agriculture, and there is no reason to believe that Malawi should follow a different path. Sources: (Chirwa & Dorward, 2013;National Cereals & Produce Board, Kenya, 2022;Nyondo, et al., 2021;Olomola, 2016;Pauw, 2022;Spielman, et al., 2022;World Bank, 2021)  Sources: (Devereux, 1997;Conroy, Blackie, Whiteside, Malewezi, & Sachs, 2006;Levy, 2005;Chirwa & Dorward, 2013;Nkhoma, 2018;Nyondo, et al., 2021;Longley, Coulter, & Thompson, 1999) ","tokenCount":"7913"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"ce2cd0fa6d0a5136c73cf72d071813ad","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/06f54c93-8cec-4307-87ac-aaabe072f9de/retrieve","id":"-523564886"},"keywords":["retail development","animal-source foods","consumers' preferences","developing countries","Tanzania"],"sieverID":"37f0e51d-3ac1-483c-949c-97284b8a4ee5","pagecount":"14","content":"Growth in population and income, as well as urbanisation, are contributing to the growing consumption of high-value foods in developing countries. However, public and private investments targeting high-value agricultural markets are constrained by limited information on the quality dimensions of the market, the nature of traditional retail formats, and consumer segmentation. This paper presents a simple and appropriate methodology to provide such information, and applies it in Tanzania to animal-sourced foods. It features a rapid survey, which is then aligned with nationally representative survey data. The results show that Tanzanian consumers demand, and are anticipated to continue demanding, relatively good-quality animal products but in rather low-valued product forms. Consumer segments are differentiated by level of wealth and by choice of retail format and retail product form, rather than by quality per se.Growth in demand for high-value foods in developing countries has largely been attributed to a combination of population and income growth, and urbanisation (Delgado et al. 1999;Caballero & Popkin 2002). Animal-sourced foods (meat, milk and eggs) have been identified as products for which growth in demand is projected to be particularly rapid (Kearney 2010;FAO 2011). A notable, yet often overlooked, feature of developing country-aggregate food-demand projections is the contribution of future population growth, which easily dominates income and other factors affecting per capita consumption, particularly in Africa (Pica-Ciamarra & Otte 2011).The advance of modern food and grocery retailing and associated developments in the value chain in developing countries have been described widely (Goldman, 1981;Reardon et al. 2004;Mergenthaler et al. 2009). Past studies of constraints to supermarket penetration in developing countries have emphasised commercial concerns such as supply chain development (Reardon & Timmer 2012), product category diffusion (Goldman et al. 2002), and social and ethnic effects manifest as inertia (Amine & Lazzaoui 2011). Today, a variety of retail outlet formats and channels exist in most 198 developing countries, and their paths of development and co-existence have been the subject of recent research (Reardon & Minten 2011;Gomez & Ricketts 2013). Despite substantial gains made by supermarkets, \"traditional\" markets still dominate retail markets for meat, dairy and certain other fresh and high-value products in many developing countries (Tschirley et al. 2009;Gorton et al. 2011). Hammond et al. (2007) conclude that the four billion people living on less than $10 a day represent a food market of about US$ 2.9 trillion per year. This market exists primarily in developing countries and is largely served by food retail formats that are traditional and informal in nature (FAO 2007;Mtimet et al. 2013;Grace et al. 2015).Opportunities for livestock producers and stakeholders that serve this growing demand thus have been identified as a source of potential economic growth that would favour the poor (Upton 2004;Pica-Ciamarra et al. 2014a). However, past research has focused largely on the quantity dimension of the market, while the investment necessary to mobilise business opportunities -including public policies -should also utilise information of volumes, quality, food safety attributes and consumers' preferred retail outlets. The needs of investors in segmenting and serving developing country retail markets, for example, have been detailed in just a few studies (e.g. Prasad & Ankisetti 2011), as has information flow in alignment with actors within the chain (Kapur 2008;Bamiro & Shittu 2009;Chung et al. 2011;Reardon & Timmer 2012). This article proposes a method for the identification and measurement of quality variables that are appropriate for developing country settings, for relevant and rapid processing of the data, and for the generation of results suitable for food value chain participants. This method is applied to the case of Tanzania, where food retailing uses a variety of channels but is dominated by traditional markets. The article advocates and demonstrates the generation of simple yet specialised datasets and simple analyses that can inform investment and other commercial decisions. It also acknowledges and encourages the use of existing sources of data, particularly those that are publicly and freely available. As examples, current and projected volumes of animal products consumed are offered by the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook (OECD and FAO 2013), and Living Standards Measurement Surveys relate household consumption to income and demographic data (Pica-Ciamara et al. 2014b). The method adapts rapid consumer survey approaches in order to identify relevant quality and safety attributes, consumer segments, retail product forms, and retail outlets. The results are then triangulated with aggregate nationally representative survey data to motivate conclusions from nationally representative analysis.Section 2 of this paper summarises the market for livestock products in Tanzania, specifically the current and projected quantities of livestock products consumed. Section 3 describes the consumer survey design, and section 4 is a summary of the results. Section 5 analyses nationally representative, publicly available datasets on the consumption of animal-source foods by category of consumer, and relates this analysis to this study's more specialised consumer survey data. This complementary treatment of data sources enables greater inference from the survey data. Section 6 lists and discusses conclusions.Tanzania's 2012 population of some 48 million grew by 3% per year from 2006 to 2012. Although a low-income country, Tanzania has recently displayed rapid economic growth: an average of 7% per year from 2002 to 2012, which means a per capita growth of 3.9%. A growing demand for animalsourced foods is therefore widely expected (FAO 2011;World Bank 2014). Projections by the FAO's Global Perspectives Studies Unit feature consumption increases for beef, mutton and goat meat, pork, poultry and milk to increase by 87%, 71%, 88%, 148% and 108% respectively from the mid-2000s to 2030 (Table 1). The low levels of consumption and income also suggest that, on average, consumer preferences are for relatively cheap livestock products and that, with the possible exception of Dar es Salaam, it will take quite some time for a supermarket revolution to become fully established in Tanzania. At present there is no information available on Tanzanian consumers' preferred product quality and retail form, nor on preferred retail outlets. The generation of this information is the focus of this article. In particular, our study targeted beef, poultry and milk, as these products are the most consumed animal foods, exhibit the highest volumes of current and projected production, and at the same time display among the highest expected growth in demand.The first analytical task was the identification and measurement of the quality dimensions of the market in order to complement the available volume-oriented data for beef, chicken and milk presented in Table 1 above. The forms taken by products in the market, their quality (including safety) attributes, the retail outlets selling them, and consumers' preferences for them were all assessed in a form disaggregated by a consumer typology. Interviews with expert informants were used to characterise observation points (retail outlets) and product forms for each of beef, chicken, eggs, mutton and goat meat, pork and fluid milk. Six retail outlet types were identified, namely: (1) specialist butcheries;(2) roadside outlets;(3) open air \"wet\" markets; (4) small shops; (5) supermarkets; and (6) specialist milk kiosks.Five main retail forms for each livestock product were selected by the expert informants. Food quality and safety attributes were drawn primarily from work by Jabbar et al. (2010), supported by the available literature (Grunert 2005;Mergenthaler et al. 2009;Cicia & Colantuoni 2010), and confirmed in discussion with the expert informants. A vital empirical consideration was that selected quality attributes be visible to the enumerator, as this enables direct assessment without reference to the opinions of survey respondents. The quality attributes varied by commodity group (details available from the authors), e.g. for beef: (1) freshness, which is correlated with meat colour and hence observed in that context; (2) visible fat cover; (3) intramuscular fat (\"marbling\"); (4) premises' cleanliness and freedom from flies; and (5) packaging.Income level, and more particularly the empirical capacity to differentiate between income levels, required the use of a proxy measure that involved a non-invasive question free of respondent bias.From a narrow range of possibilities, ownership of means of transport was selected. This not only reflects wealth but also contributes directly to purchasing behaviour by influencing the distance consumers can travel. This measure can be contentious (Morris et al. 2000;Lindelow 2006), as the absence of a means of transport can mean, for example, that a poor consumer purchases products that are more expensive than those purchased by wealthier ones due to being forced to shop locally (Ballantine et al. 2008;Hatch et al. 2011). Nevertheless, this variable was chosen because it supports the objective of the study, namely to develop and test a low-cost, easily replicable methodology, 1 it supports identical information that is collected in nationally representative surveys, thus enhancing the method's consistency with other data sources, and it is easily described and understood by all parties to a survey question.Following training, the enumerators' actions extended to questioning consumers and directly observing product forms and qualities, as described above. This took place in retail outlets as identified in a stratified random sampling by rural/urban location, and by retail format.The quality variable was recorded as a simple (unweighted) sum of zero-one values assigned to the identified quality attributes (Table 3). The resulting scores are on an interval of 0 to 5. This has the advantages of simplicity, and of eliminating consumer or retailer assessment. The unweighted sum may well under-or overestimate the significance of some aspects of quality, but was maintained throughout because expert informants (see below) were unable to agree on appropriate weights. A questionnaire was administered to consumers observed buying a given livestock product. The sampling design enabled observations of the quality of the product, of a given retail form, at a given retail outlet. A question was posed (on means of transport owned) and used to establish three levels of income classification: the worse off (58 respondents; 40% of sample size) did not own any means of transport; the middle class (47 respondents; 33%) owned a motorcycle; and the better off (39 respondents; 27%) who owned a car. Consumers were posed questions about why they purchased from a particular outlet, about trends in their consumption of the nominated retail products, and their willingness to spend more on specified livestock products. Crucially, the consumer interview was implemented in around five minutes in each case. Baker et al.201A stratified random sampling method was used to select urban and rural locations and the indicative types of retail outlet in those locations, including butcheries, roadside outlets, wet markets, small retail shops, supermarkets and milk kiosks/vendors. For each of the six types of retail outlet, three establishments in urban areas and three in rural areas were randomly selected, i.e. a total of 36 outlets.In each retail outlet, four consumers were selected randomly -viz. the first four that purchased livestock products during the enumerator's presence in the shop -for a total of 144 consumers. Enumerators spent a maximum of one hour in each outlet, as market days or mornings/evenings were selected as days for the survey. Data collection took place in October 2011 in two urban, and one rural, district near to Dar es Salaam. The quality and safety scores indicated that products sold by urban retailers exhibited quality that was equal or superior to that sold in rural outlets, with the exception of roadside outlets (Figure 1). When quality scores were evaluated by retail outlet, supermarkets achieved the highest quality score in both urban and rural areas, although the small supermarkets found in small rural towns were significantly different from urban supermarkets. Butcheries ranked second for quality. With the exception of supermarkets there was little variation across rural retailers in terms of quality scores: all exhibited \"medium\" ratings. The variation was more pronounced among urban retailers, where supermarkets scored 5 (good quality) and roadside outlets scored 2.5 on average (lower medium quality). Across all wealth categories, consumers were found to purchase animal-source foods in all retail outlets. Less well-off consumers, however, were more likely to purchase livestock products at roadside outlets and in small retail shops than were middle-class and better-off consumers. These latter two (wealthier) groups prefer supermarkets, butcheries and milk kiosks. A surprising result is that open-air markets were a preferred retail outlet for all consumers, regardless of wealth category. A possible explanation centres on price, which was found to be significantly lower in roadside outlets and small retail shops (the median price across all products recorded was TSh 2 2 250 and 2 400 per purchase lot respectively) than in butcheries and supermarkets (TSh 5 000 and 4 000 per purchase lot respectively). Another motivation centres on convenience and familiarity with the vendor. Preferences for retail product form, disaggregated by income tercile, are presented for beef, poultry and milk in Figures 3 to 5 respectively. The results for pork and goat meat (not reported here due to space considerations) provided no statistically significant differences across income terciles. 2 In October 2011, the US$-TZSH exchange rate was 1 600. A relationship was apparent between income level and preferred product form for the three commodities presented, but this should be tempered with an understanding of retail practices in developing countries. In particular, the small quantities purchased mean that, even at a high price, these represent small expenditures that may not fully reflect income-related effects. Moreover, small samples also encourage some caution in our inference.For beef, the consumers in the poorest tercile purchased either offal or mixed pieces (the lowest priced beef products), which are reported not to be consumed in large quantities by better-off consumers (Figure 3). Conversely, steak and sausages are apparently consumed by all types of consumers, but the sample numbers are small for these product forms.The less well-off are the only ones who reported purchasing the (low-priced) mixed pieces of chicken.Live birds are reported to be purchased by all consumers. The considerable variation in reported prices for live birds should be noted here, particularly as the data do not differentiate between local and imported breeds, for which demand conditions may be quite different.In the case of milk, raw fresh milk was purchased mainly by the poorest consumers. As in the above cases, prices may not be the primary influence on income-related milk product purchase choices: the price per litre of raw fresh milk was found to differ little from that of pasteurised milk (both around TSh 1 000 per litre). Poor consumers may be compelled to purchase the products available from retail establishments to which their means of transport enable access. There may also be an abiding consumer preference for raw fresh milk, which outweighs safety-related concerns. The results also show that boiled milk is purchased primarily by middle-class and better-off consumers.Consumers' frequency of quality scores of food items, as an aggregate result across all products purchased, is presented in Figure 6. It should be noted that these results report behaviour as observed and recorded by enumerators -they are not \"reported behaviour\". Consistent with the observed quality/safety levels, which we found to be relatively high across all products and retail outlets, the most frequently occurring quality score was high for consumers at all levels of wealth. The similarity of the curves is reinforced by the statistical results, which reveal no significant differences between income categories for qualities purchased. A plausible explanation for this result is that the poorest consumers purchase livestock products less frequently than do others, and so any purchase of such a food item is contemplated with caution, with due consideration of alternatives. In support of this explanation, the great majority of consumers reported perceived quality and safety as being the most important determinant of choice of retail outlet, with the related \"known, trustworthy premises\" also prominent in the analysis. Quality choice results for individual commodities or product forms are not presented here, but these were largely similar to the aggregate results shown.This article's rapid appraisals of consumer preferences for retail outlets and product forms are consistent with the prevailing wisdom, and aspects of patterns of demand seen in publicly available aggregate data. Further alignment with data drawn from Tanzania's 2008/09 National Panel Survey (National Bureau of Statistics 2010) allows us to arrive at a national-level estimate of the demand for major livestock products by preferred retail forms and retail outlets.The nationally representative National Panel Survey (NPS) statistics on commodity-level household purchases and consumption of livestock products also feature ownership of means of transport. Figure 7 presents the proportion of households reporting the purchase of beef, chicken and milk, again by wealth category -defined by the means of transport owned -using the same categories as used above. Over 70%, 50% and 30% of the better-off consumers reported regularly (at least once per week) purchasing beef, milk and chicken respectively, while middle-class and less well-off households reported purchasing animal-source foods less frequently. 3 For beef, milk and chicken, better-off households purchased animal-source foods more frequently than those from other income classes, but also consumed these products in larger volumes. For aggregate consumption of animal-source foods in Tanzania, the better-off consumers account for fewer than 5% of all consumers, while the middle-class and less well-off consumers represent some 39% and 56% respectively (National Bureau of Statistics 2010). Hence the \"market\" -as understood by investors and other commercial interests -is comprised largely of purchases by the less well-off (see Table 5), who represent 52.7% of the market for beef, 53.7% of the market for chicken, and 50.1% of the market for milk by both volume and value. Progressively smaller proportions appear for the middle-class and better-off consumers. An extension of these results onward to a nationally indicative, quality-oriented projection of Tanzania's market for animal-source food was constructed by combining elements of both the NPS data and the rapid consumer survey. Figure 8 represents the beef, chicken and milk markets disaggregated by preferred retail form, while each retail outlet's market share is projected in Figure 9.Beef market by consumers' preferred retail form Poultry market by consumers' preferred retail form Milk market by consumers' preferred retail form Projections for beef show that mixed pieces and offal represent almost 90% of the market. For poultry, the result is somewhat less pronounced, but live birds and mixed pieces dominate consumers' preferred product form, at 43% and 33% of the market respectively. For milk, the raw fresh product occupies some half of the market, with a surprisingly large amount of pasteurised milk and rather little (10%) boiled milk. Projections of the preferred meat retail outlets feature butcheries, roadside outlets and supermarkets, each accounting for 26% to 27% of the market in volume terms. Milk vendors and small retail shops dominate the milk market.Investment and commercial action by food value chain actors in developing countries has been little studied beyond the context of supermarkets. In particular, traditional markets and co-existing retail formats are present in most African countries, and these serve the great majority of the population. In this article, a methodology was developed and tested to mobilise decision makers at the retail level and elsewhere regarding practical marketing steps, such as consumer segmentation and the delivery of desired qualities. The method is centred on a rapid survey procedure, from which results were then mapped onto nationally representative datasets to establish projections for the national market. The application of the method in Tanzania is reported.Tanzanian consumers in identifiable, discreet wealth segments are found to purchase animal-source foods in different markets, and to prefer different retail products. On average, and using the simple quality measurement system developed, the quality of the livestock products sold and purchased is found to be good in both urban and rural areas. Moreover, the quality purchased by consumers in all wealth categories was found to be good. Unsurprisingly, given that the majority of consumers purchasing animal-source foods are less well-off, retail product forms preferred by these consumers were found to dominate the market. This means that offal and mixed pieces for beef, live birds and mixed pieces for chicken and raw milk for dairy are identified as the preferred product forms.Three important conclusions emerge. The first is that cheap and timely procedures can be employed to generate substantial and relevant information about food value chain participants. The second is that, across consumers of all income levels, there is sufficient market in Tanzania for product quality and safety to enable market-led interventions such as product differentiation. The conditions supporting this development are a subject for future research, particularly in the realm of traditional markets. The third is that, despite Tanzania's relatively poor consumer profile and dominance of traditional markets, there are commercial opportunities for smallholder livestock producers. The focus of this study was on demonstrating a method, and resource constraints necessitated a sample that was small and geographically limited. This resulted in limited inference on several items of undoubted interest to commercial parties, such as differentiation of rural and urban areas, and the robust estimation of preferred quality attributes for consumers in the different wealth categories. Several potential improvements in the method have been identified, such as more discriminating treatment of poultry breeds, a more sophisticated measure of income, and larger samples. Further work is called for to identify and overcome barriers to smallholder livestock holders' and agribusinesses' access to opportunities across co-exiting retail formats in developing countries, and improved generation and communication of commercially relevant information.","tokenCount":"3513"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"bc64da3aaabee332f199d7b996433f17","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://repository.cimmyt.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7b2f33d9-e3ff-4965-acb9-a2cec91fc01a/content","id":"-826757363"},"keywords":["Economic impact","livelihood impacts","maize","hill regions","Mexico","Nepal","spatial analysis","Google EarthTM Economic indicators","economic factors","Highlands","Data analysis","Statistical methods","Maize","Mexico","Nepal AGRIS Category Codes: E14 Development Economics and Policies"],"sieverID":"ed59385c-0412-4102-aeac-63217ef1527b","pagecount":"33","content":"The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, known by its Spanish acronym, CIMMYT® (www.cimmyt.org), is an international, not-for-profi t research and training organization. With partners in over 100 countries, the center applies science to increase food security, improve the productivity and profi tability of maize and wheat farming systems, and sustain natural resources in the developing world. The center's outputs and services include improved maize and wheat varieties and cropping systems, the conservation of maize and wheat genetic resources, and capacity building. CIMMYT belongs to and is funded by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) (www.cgiar.org) and also receives support from national governments, foundations, development banks, and other public and private agencies.© International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) 2008. All rights reserved. The designations employed in the presentation of materials in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of CIMMYT or its contributory organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CIMMYT encourages fair use of this material. Proper citation is requested.Livelihood typologies and selected livelihood indicators, Oaxaca. ............................................. Table 2. Livelihoods, maize production, and maize diversity in the late 1990s and 2006. ...................... Table 3. Average maize yields, Oaxaca, 2001Oaxaca, -2006   A livelihoods approach to impact assessment captures a wider range of factors that aff ect farmers' welfare than those captured by conventional impact assessment. CIMMYT recently completed two innovative studies that took a livelihoods approach to assessing in more comprehensive ways the impacts of maize research projects in Mexico and Nepal. In Mexico, CIMMYT collaborated with the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas, y Pecuarias (INIFAP), and in Nepal with the National Agricultural Research Council (NARC).This paper compares and contrasts the two studies. We distill the key impacts of research, the International Public Goods, and the lessons learned, so as to bett er target and enhance maize research to improve the livelihoods of farmers in the future. In the Oaxaca study in Mexico two new tools for socio-economic research were tested and piloted: Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) to collect real-time fi eld data from farmers, and Google Earth TM to organize and analyze spatial data. The two studies integrate livelihoods and economic analyses to assess impact. Also based on the experiences in these studies, CIMMYT published Guidelines for assessing impacts of agricultural research on livelihoods in 2007. The Oaxaca study was described in Livelihood approaches in multi-dimensional impact assessment, a chapter in Strategic guidance for impact assessment of agricultural research by the CGIAR Standing Panel on Impact Assessment, 2008.To fully assess the impact of new technologies on farmers we need to shift the focus of research from 'crops' or 'commodities' to the impact pathway which links improved crop germplasm and management to household well-being. Household well-being includes factors such as food security, more income, and the stocks and fl ows of household assets.A livelihoods approach to impact assessment (IA) augments the conventional practice of assessing impact because it captures a wider range of factors that aff ect the livelihoods of farmers than conventional IA, which oft en only examines improvements in crop productivity and returns. Taking this innovative approach, CIMMYT recently completed two studies on the impacts of maize research in the hill regions of Mexico and Nepal. The two case studies provide lessons for assessing impact through a livelihoods lens to complement economic assessments. The research projects and the present impact study generated a number of International Public Goods: methods for spatial analysis, methods for participatory research with farmers applied to IA, and capacity-building of farmers in maize selection and for IA research based on a livelihoods approach.The fi rst study, described in depth in this paper, assesses the impacts of research by CIMMYT and a Mexican partner, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP), during the late 1990s in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca, Mexico. The objectives of this research were to raise productivity, preserve the diversity of traditional criollo maize landraces, provide training, demonstrate maize production practices, and promote post-harvest technologies.In 2006, a study was launched to assess the impacts of this research, to examine the changes in farmers' livelihoods that resulted from the project, and to learn how such research projects can have more impact in the future. The study sought to capture the impacts of the project, in terms of the use of criollo maize, the use farmers made of training, and the use of post-harvest technology (silos). This was done by collecting and analyzing data on indicators of farmers' livelihoods and economic status. The results were examined for participant and non-participant farmers, and for diff erent household wealth categories characterized through the IA study itself.Reducing poverty by developing and selecting local and improved maize germplasm was just one of the goals of the research project. Other important objectives were to expand the knowledge on maize diversity, and generate and test participatory research methods. Although the benefi ts of these are hard to quantify, the IA should take account of these eff ects in the overall assessment.The second study, to assess the impacts of the Hill Maize Research Project (HMRP) in Nepal, used a similar mix of qualitative and quantitative tools to those used in the Oaxaca study. In Nepal, CIMMYT and partners developed and tested improved varieties through participatory research. The Nepal study captures the outcomes and impacts of the participatory research projects in terms of maize productivity, food security, community-based seed production, empowerment, social inclusion, and the institutionalization of participatory research.The Mexico study in the area of origin of maize indicates that there is a moderate use of improved maize and some impact on poverty, but that the area of maize has shrunk and that maize is less important as a commercial crop. In contrast, improved maize varieties in Nepal play an increasingly important role in improving livelihoods. In Nepal maize is also a way of improving the livelihoods of marginalized farmers in the hill areas, and low-caste women. To fully assess the impact of new technologies on farmers we need to shift the focus from 'crops' or 'commodities' to the impact pathway which links improved crop germplasm and management to household well-being. Household well-being includes factors such as food security, more income, and the stocks and fl ows of household assets. A livelihoods approach takes into account several of the factors that aff ect household wellbeing, and provides a way of examining diverse infl uences, thus ensuring that the key infl uences are captured.CIMMYT recently completed two innovative impact assessment (IA) studies, in Mexico and Nepal, which used a livelihoods approach in order to capture impacts comprehensively. The livelihoods approach was used in conjunction with conventional economic and other tools. This paper compares the approaches, fi ndings, and lessons learned in these two studies.  The Oaxaca study draws lessons on how to eff ectively implement an IA within the framework of a livelihoods approach. This was particularly relevant when the study was being done as, at that time, IA at CIMMYT was being reshaped to meet new demands. The Oaxaca Project generated options for small-scale farmers to benefi t from genetic diversity in local traditional landraces.Components of the project included a) a baseline and diagnostic assessment of maize diversity and household features (Smale et al. 1999;2003) Maize is grown in the hills and terai (plains) regions of Nepal, in a wide range of agro-ecological and climatic conditions, and farming systems (Figure 2). Maize, the staple food of hill farmers, is grown on terraces in the low, mid-and high hills under rainfed conditions during the summer. Irrigated maize is also grown in the alluvial plains of the terai valleys and low-lying river basins in spring and winter. Maize productivity is low. The average yield is 1.8 tons/ha. This may be  The Oaxaca IA study used, and at the same time tested and piloted, new tools for socio-economic research. One tool was the use of Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) for collecting real-time data for IA (Carrion and La Rovere 2007). Another was an innovative approach for collecting geo-referenced plot data directly on farm using web-based Google Earth TM technology. A third was the analysis of satellite-derived data for climatic patt erns (see full description in Annex 1).Framework of the study CIMMYT uses the 'livelihoods approach' as a 'check list' of important issues to be considered in doing an IA, to choose and design impact indicators, and to understand how they link to one another.The livelihood dimensions considered are: food security, lack of assets, risk, and vulnerability. The livelihoods approach also draws att ention to infl uences and processes, and emphasizes the multiple interactions between the various factors which, in practice, aff ect livelihoods. IA is increasingly att empting to capture diff erent types of impacts (direct, indirect) and more of the successes, and to build more meaningful impact stories. In addition, IA should help us learn from past research outcomes. This means that IA must go beyond aggregating economic benefi ts, and must integrate additional analytical tools. Conventional economic approaches mostly assess adoption; yet adoption is only part of the impact picture and actually only 'assumes' real impact. La Rovere and Dixon ( 2007) and Walker et al. (2008) discuss implementing these types of IA, and livelihoods approaches within multi-dimensional IAs.The IA studies described here adopted a livelihoods approach, supplemented in the Nepal study with surplus analysis, and stakeholder and gender assessment, and in the Mexico study with econometrics. In both cases the IA considers food security and income enhancement. The Mexico study looked back explicitly ex post to work done a decade before. As the HMRP project was still in progress, the independent external IA study combined ex-post assessment and monitoring.In Oaxaca the impacts study was completed between late 2006 and early 2007 in the same three communities of Badstue et al. (2006): Huitzo, San Lorenzo, and Santa Ana. The preliminary appraisal confi rmed that these communities were representative of the communities that were part of the Oaxaca Project in the late 1990s. We measured the impact of the Oaxaca Project by comparing the data for the indicators chosen for the 1998 baseline study with data for similar indicators chosen for the 2006 assessment (this being the 'before/aft er' the project counterfactual).We recorded qualitative data on the impact of the Oaxaca Project and changes in livelihoods by analyzing the perceptions of farmers through FGDs. The present study revisited the same participants of the Oaxaca Project to fi nd out what had happened to them in the meantime. However, by 2006, only 68 of the original participants were still around, and only 52 of these had been part of the baseline study (Smale et al. 1999). Fift ytwo new households were randomly selected as a control to make up the 'with/without' counterfactual, based on comparing 'participants' and 'non-participants' in the project.We analyzed the gross margins for the 12 farmers who had cultivated both criollo and CIMMYT selections of maize since 1998. The gross margin analysis took account of all production and postharvest costs, and the values of all outputs, per hectare. As maize is oft en intercropped with beans and pumpkin, the value of beans and pumpkin was considered separately. The opportunity cost of labor was not included as farmers reported only on-farm labor.We used a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) procedure to assess whether the value of maize production-as an indicator of factors that contribute to food security and poverty-was infl uenced by the project interventions: adoption of CIMMYT maize selections, adoption of silos for post-harvest storage of maize, and participation in capacity-building activities. The PSM approach controls for the self-selection that normally arises when technology adoption is not randomly assigned. A key issue in evaluating the impact of adoption on income is specifying the average treatment eff ect. Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983) defi ne the impact of adoption on income (Δ i ) in a counterfactual framework asA and Y i N are the incomes of a household, i, when it adopts the technology and when it does not adopt it. In estimating the impact from (1), a problem is the fact that, for each household, either Y i A or Y i N would normally be observed, but not both. What is normally observed can be expressed as:Where Y is the potential outcome and D is a 0 or 1 dummy, binary, variable for the use of the new technology; D i = 1 if the technology is adopted and Di = 0 otherwise.When the data available provide no information on the counterfactual, a missing data problem arises. In this case, the direct eff ect of technology adoption from the variation in outcomes across households must be estimated, using statistical PSM (Abadie et al. 2004;Caliendo and Kopeinig 2005). PSM estimates the eff ect of adoption for the full sample from the weighted average of the eff ect of adoption for adopters (treated) and nonadopters (controls), where the weightings are the relative frequencies. Matching the treated and the control subjects becomes diffi cult when there is a multi-dimensional vector of characteristics. The PSM solves this type of problem by summarizing the pre-treatment characteristics of each subject into a single index variable, and then using the propensity score (PS) to match similar individuals. This constitutes the probability of assignment to treatment conditional on pre-treatment variables (see Rosenbaum and Rubin 1983;Becerril-García 2007). There are a number of methods for matching similar adopters and non-adopters, such as nearest neighbor matching (NN), used here to calculate the average treatment eff ect by matching each treated individual with a control with the closest PS. Then, the diff erence between the household incomes for each matched pair is computed. A relevant application in agriculture is in Mendola (2007).In In 2006, Mathema and Gurung (2006) carried out an external assessment of the impact of the HMRP.The assessment compared livelihood indicators in project areas (with) and non-project areas (without), and changes in indicators before and aft er the project. The assessment looked at two areas: a project area and a similar non-project area.To compare livelihoods before and aft er the project, data were collected from benefi ciary households in diff erent socio-economic groups from 10 locations. Data were collected from secondary sources, participatory rural appraisal, and directly from partners and stakeholders. Baseline data were collected ex post using the recall method. The study assessed impacts on socially disaggregated groups: the dalits, the Brahmin, Chhetri, and Newar (BCN) 2 , and the janajatis. The study included gross margin and economic surplus analyses. Direct impacts of the project were lower costs, new technology, and bett er seed production. Indirect impacts were, for example, empowerment, social inclusion, and more social equity for poor, geographically remote and excluded groups 3 . In Nepal it is the poor women who constitute an important impact pathways in achieving impact in rural areas.We estimated the benefi ts of adopting maize technology for producers and consumers, and the profi ts of individual farmers from three-year time-series data in 10 diff erent places, using the Economic Surplus analysis (ES) and Gross Margin analysis (GM). Focus group discussions (FGDs) in all locations elicited data on annual growth rates of maize productivity, and the trends in total maize production and consumption. Detailed information on input costs and benefi ts of growing maize was collected from key informants. As new maize technologies either raise crop productivity or lower marginal production costs, technological changes also contribute to higher total maize production. Adopting new maize technologies can thus benefi t both producers and consumers (more maize in the market and lower prices in the villages). We estimated economic surplus using the Dynamic Research Evaluation for Management (DREAM) soft ware (Wood et al. 2001). Gross Margin analysis estimated the profi tability of the introduced maize technologies and compared profi tability of introduced maize technologies with that of prevailing practices.Livelihoods An 'ageing' process of farming was found in the area, also due to migration. Average farm size has been increasing, mainly by expanding onto poor quality land. The area planted with maize has declined. Although the studies conducted in the late 1990s found that \"by some indicators of wealth households were not poor,\" in 2006 about 28% of households were found to be poor and marginalized. These were households with poorly educated older farmers, who were also still growing maize as their main food. Remitt ances are an important source of household income: from Mexico for poor families, from the USA for richer ones. At the end of the 1990s remitt ances averaged 20% of total income, ranging from 10% of total household income in the most advanced, marketconnected community to 25% or more in the other two communities.For the households that were sampled in 2006, we compared the changes in average yield from 1999 to 2006 where data were available. Households that had bought CIMMYT selections experienced moderate decreases in average yield (11%). Those who did not buy CIMMYT selections experienced larger losses (19%). Average 1999 yields were in line with those of 2006, hence in general terms fi ndings did not confi rm the farmers' perceptions of declining yields.Farmers' preference for certain varieties of maize is oft en linked to food preferences. They prefer the white (blanco), yellow (amarillo), or blue (negro or azul) maize varieties. As compared to the late 1990s, in 2006 most farmers still preferred blanco maize because it has a good market, is preferred for eating, and is drought tolerant. With regard to biodiversity, they did not report large losses of maize populations. Only one variety (VC-152) from the Oaxaca Project was considered to be good for eating and for feeding to animals and was still present. Improved maize is grown only in Huitzo, the most advanced and market-connected community. In the more remote communities that are least connected to markets, most farmers are poor and adopted CIMMYT selections more oft en. Table 2 compares the situation in the late 1990s with the situation in 2006.In 2006, 27.5% of farmers out of the whole sample were still using maize derived from the Oaxaca Project (CIMMYT selections are local varieties that were selected by farmers during the project 4 ). Of those who participated in the project, 44% still use CIMMYT selections. In addition, 5.8% of those who did not participate also grew maize from the project, suggesting some spontaneous farmer-tofarmer diff usion of maize selections. Maize that farmers had bought from the project, however, had oft en got lost, mainly due to drought. But many farmers are still using varieties derived from the crosses made in the fi eld or from mixes of criollo varieties. The main advantages of CIMMYT selections from the farmer's point of view are that they are bett er for consumptiom, and that yields are higher. Disadvantages are that the growth cycle is longer and they are more diffi cult to market.CIMMYT selections have outperformed local criollo maize every year since 2001 on the farms of the subset of the 12 households which participated in the project and were still planting both criollo and CIMMYT maize in 2006 (Figure 3). CIMMYT selections outperformed criollo maize (Table 3) by 10% for minimum yield, by 14% for maximum yield, and by 16% for mean yield.  Criollo CIMMYT MXN1,857 (USD172) per hectare, while for criollo maize ('without') the gross margin is MXN627 (USD58). Normally, the household consumes the maize that is not sold. Thus, although in real terms maize is not very profi table, farmers keep growing it for consumption and to use the crop residues as forage for livestock.Farmers growing CIMMYT selections of maize appear to have more land than those who do not grow CIMMYT selections, but their yields are lower. The farmers who participated in the Oaxaca Project were oft en those whose incomes were lower, those who were older, and those with larger families. The average yield was lowest (427 kg/ ha) for the 'very poor' group, who own the land of poorest quality. The farmers with higher incomes use improved seed more frequently and get higher yields. They grow very litt le criollo maize.Nearly one-fi ft h (17.5%) of farmers have at least one silo. More than half the farmers who bought silos did so through a process facilitated by CIMMYT. Farmers invested in silos because they are easy to use, aff ordable, are a good replacement for traditional practices, and because they meet the need to reduce losses and store food securely. Silos are a pro-poor food security option that has diff used from farmer-to-farmer. The farmers who adopted the silos were those who were younger and more educated, and those who were bett er informed about support programs.Participants in the Oaxaca Project gained skills and knowledge from CIMMYT training (e.g. on open pollination, types of criollo maize, seed storage methods, use of agrochemicals). However, farmers reported that much of their learning had dissipated and relatively litt le of what had been learned had been applied. Techniques learned during the project had been applied only to a moderate extent, as the practices were labor intensive when compared to traditional practices.Table 4 shows the results of the Probit models. The variables that negatively infl uence the probability that CIMMYT selections will be adopted are those related to social capital (n of family members, age, and education of head of household). Only two variables were statistically signifi cant: the (female) gender of the household head and the n of input used. Both these variables were associated with an increased probability that CIMMYT selections would be adopted. It is the women who look for specifi c characteristics in the CIMMYT selections of maize and who choose to adopt them for these characteristics. Farmers wanting to raise maize production tend to adopt and use varieties that give bett er yields and are more adapted to their environment. They also use more inputs.Signifi cant variables that negatively infl uence adoption of silos are the age of the household head and the number of inputs used. Age has a negative eff ect because older farmers are more reluctant to use new or diff erent technologies than younger farmers. The number of inputs used has a negative eff ect because farmers who use more inputs get 'higher' yields and, so, have more to sell, and less need of silos to preserve maize for consumption. The n of equipment use has a positive infl uence on adoption of silos since farmers who get low yields tend to rely on bett er agronomic practices rather than on higher input use. Farmers who have the resources to buy inputs and use equipment are those more likely to try to make their production more effi cient and to participate in capacitybuilding activities. The variables that infl uence farmers' participation in capacity-building activities positively and signifi cantly are the n of inputs and equipment.We estimated the impact of CIMMYT interventions based on the average treatment eff ect using the PSM method for each of the interventions, with respect to three outcome variables: the monthly per capita value of maize production, ratio of the value of maize production to total income, and poverty. Households were classifi ed according to the clusters classifi cation derived from this study and from the national Secretaría de Desarrollo Social (SEDESOL) lines for Mexico (Table 5, World Bank, 2004). Because the interventions of the Oaxaca Project help to either increase or maintain current maize yields, the impact of the project is refl ected in the estimated value of maize production. Likewise, we estimated the proportion of the value of maize production over total income. Poverty, as defi ned in the clusters and the SEDESOL poverty lines, was represented by binary variables (poor = 1, non-poor = 0).The income averages in both cases (clusters classifi cation derived from this study and from SEDESOL) are similar (Table 5). Farmers in the fi rst three clusters of our classifi cation are considered as poor (very poor, poor, middle poor), and farmers in the 'bett er off ' cluster as non-poor. Likewise, the SEDESOL lines classifi ed poor farmers in three poverty levels (food poverty, capacities poverty, asset poverty) and classifi ed the farmers with higher incomes as non-poor.Based on the NN (nearest neighbor) matching method we assessed the causal eff ect of participating in CIMMYT interventions. The impact of adopting CIMMYT selections on the value of maize production (Table 6) was signifi cant, generating a production value advantage of ~MXN107 (the average diff erence in the value of maize production that adopters of CIMMYT selections get, as opposed to nonadopters). CIMMYT selections had a signifi cant and positive causal eff ect on the contribution of maize production value to total income, generating a 24.3% advantage for adopters compared with non-adopters. We applied the same procedure to estimate the probability that the adoption of CIMMYT selections contributes to reducing poverty. With respect to the SEDESOL poverty lines, the result was negative as expected (-6%), suggesting that adoption is associated with less poverty (though not statistically signifi cant).With respect to the clusters from this study, the result was also negative (-18%), but signifi cant. This means that adoption is associated with less poverty for adopters when compared with the non-adopters. Although none of the outcomes for the silos intervention were statistically significant, in most cases the results were as expected. In terms of the value of maize production (Table 6), there was no difference between farmers who adopted silos and those who did not adopt. The effect of adopting silos was negative on the contribution of the value of maize production to total income. This suggests that because silos are intended to reduce post-harvest losses, adopting them has no effect on increasing the value of production. So, the CIMMYT silos technology did not have any effect on poverty in terms of differences among treatment and control groups based on SEDESOL poverty lines. But, in terms of the clusters classification derived from this study, the CIMMYT silos technology did reduce poverty, although the coefficient is not significant.The causal effects of capacity-building interventions were as expected, although not significant. Farmers who participated in capacity-building activities had higher maize production value than those who did not. The contribution of maize production value to total income showed similar results. For both SEDESOL and clusters poverty classifi cations the coeffi cients were negative, meaning that participation in capacity-building activities contributed to reducing poverty.Hill Maize Research Project (HMRP), Nepal Mathema and Gurung (2006) found that the HMRP has had several impacts.During the project, scientists trained farmers in improved maize cultivation practices and encouraged participatory varietal selection (PVS) fi eld trials, as well as community-based seed production (CBSP). The PVS fi eld trials involved 45% women, 40% dalit, and 15% janajati. For the purposes of the HMRP, participants were classifi ed into three economic strata in terms of food suffi ciency: rich, with a food surplus for the whole year; middle, with food for 6-9 months and; poor, with food for less than 6 months. Of those involved in PVS, 66% were in the poor group, 22% in the middle group, and only 14% in the rich group. Seed production groups involved dalits (20%), janajatis (22%), and women (58%). Females from all economic strata and resource-poor farmers participated in marketing maize seed, thanks to the communitybased seed production (CBSP) groups. The income from maize production is mainly spent on minor household expenses and educating children. This means that targeting food-defi cit households has a positive eff ect on improving the livelihoods and social equity of very poor farmers. Before the project, maize was grown mainly for household consumption but, recently, farmers have begun to sell it, helping to diversify their incomes. Mathema and Gurung (2006) reported that PVS and CBSP increased maize production by more than 50% compared to local varieties.The area and yield of improved maize varieties increased compared to local varieties at project sites. In 2006, 62% of the project area was sown with improved varieties. The average yield of improved varieties in 2005 was 2.96 tons/ha compared to 1.39 tons/ha from local varieties. Farmers preferred the improved varieties because the yield was higher, they liked the taste, the improved varieties were non-lodging, and they were more palatable as forage for animals. A major impact of HMRP germplasm testing was the release by the National Variety Release Committ ee in 2005 of the Deuti (ZM-621) and Shitala (Population-44) varieties recommended for the midhills of Nepal. Both varieties are white and have a potential yield of 4-5 tons/ha.Household food self-suffi ciency at nine fi eld sites was assessed in 2002 (prior to Phase II) and 2006 (in Phase II). Figure 4 shows that the number of households that were food self-suffi cient for 6-11 months and for more than a year had increased by 2006 when compared to 2002. The percentage of households which were food self-suffi cient for one year or more increased from 11% to 24%. The project worked with about 8,000 farmers, of whom 49% where women and 51% were men. Of those farmers, 86% were in the food-defi cit group. The majority (51%) were Brahmin, Chhetri, and Newar (BCN), 32% dalits, and 17% janajatis. Most were from poor households: 57% in the poor category, 29% in the middle one, and 14% in the rich one (Mathema and Gurung 2006).The percentage of households self-suffi cient in food for 6-11 months increased from 29.5% in 2002 to 42.6% in 2006. However, the percentage of  Farmers adopting maize technology used quality seed provided by HMRP. Local maize seed has low productivity. The use of manure and chemical fertilizer was relatively low. Productivity when farmers practiced improved maize agronomy was higher compared to when they used local practices.The costs of production per hectare were estimated for improved maize (with) and local maize (without). The gross margins per hectare and per location are shown in Table 7.The average gross margin for improved maize is higher than for local maize by NPR9,431 (about USD121). Incremental benefi ts accrue when inputs such as good quality seeds are used, higher doses of manure are applied, and outputs are sold at higher prices. Adopting maize technology generally involved more labor. Quality maize seed fetches 50% more than traditional maize seed at the market. Thus, farmers benefi t fi nancially by replacing local maize with improved maize.In the HMRP most farmers have now adopted improved maize, mainly grown for household consumption and as animal feed. Economic Surplus analysis showed that improved maize has benefi ted not only the maize producers (by increasing productivity) but also consumers (by making cheaper maize seed available in the villages). In general, the technological change in maize cultivation benefi ted producers by 64.35% and consumers by 35.65% (Table 8). Similar methods were used in both assessments in Oaxaca and for the HMRP in Nepal. In both cases a mix of qualitative and quantitative tools, participatory assessments, and economic methods (econometric analysis in Oaxaca, Economic Surplus analysis in Nepal, and Gross Margin analysis in both) were used.Both assessments integrate the rigorous use of both the before/aft er and with/without counterfactuals. The approaches used are summarized in Table 9.Similar indicators for impacts and changes in livelihoods were used. This set of metrics comprehensively covers and measures outcomes and impacts on livelihoods (Table 10). Using the indicators, we quantifi ed changes in livelihood capitals, in income, in poverty (including food security), in equity, and economic changes such as technology gross margins and economic surplus. The metrics also captured a range of direct and indirect impacts, as well as outcomes. Specifi c diff erences in metrics between the studies are due to the diff erent purposes. The impacts of the Oaxaca Project were mainly positive, particularly in terms of the impact of adopting silos and CIMMYT maize selections. In other respects the impacts were moderate, such as from capacity-building where the eff ects had partially dissipated by the time the assessment was done. The study proved that the adoption and use of CIMMYT maize selections increased the value of maize production and the contribution maize production made to total income. This contributed to reducing poverty (as assessed according to the household livelihood typologies in this study).The overall fi ndings also suggest that it would have been a good investment for CIMMYT to have maintained a presence on the ground in Oaxaca to strengthen and sustain the technical interventions (silos and capacity-building). This would have made an even more signifi cant impact on poverty reduction.Achieving livelihood impacts through maize was just one of the goals of the project. Other goals were to boost knowledge of maize diversity and to generate and test participatory research approaches. The benefi ts of these goals, however, are more diffi cult to quantify in monetary terms.Benefi ts take the form of a general contribution to the stock of scientifi c knowledge and were beyond the explicit scope of the Oaxaca impact study. However, the spillover of knowledge on maize diversity and participatory methods developed by the project must also be recognized as part of the overall benefi ts.In Nepal the study showed that the improved maize technology is spreading, that demand is growing for improved maize technology, and that maize is playing an increasingly important role in improving livelihoods. But, by 2006, improved maize technology had not yet reached a large number of farmers. Progress had been made in increasing food security and food suffi ciency. What is needed now is a strategy to scale up research and development interventions to reach more poor farmers. Mathema and Gurung (2006) estimate that enough maize seed can be produced by the HMRP to expand the reach of the maize varieties developed.The HMRP guidelines call for 70% of participants to be from the food defi cit group, and for more than 50% to be women. These guidelines help to bett er target future interventions. HMRP incorporated gender, poverty, and social equity issues to improve livelihoods and food security of the poor and excluded groups and, hence, reached out to the most marginalized and vulnerable social and economic groups, the dalits, janajatis, and the women.The major policy contribution of HMRP is the work to institutionalize participatory approaches for varietal selection and improved seed production in the hills of Nepal. Many government and non-government organizations, and the national agricultural research system, have adopted these concepts and have a bett er knowledge of maize varieties, agronomic practices for growing maize, and for producing seed. NARC staff reported that they are more confi dent in their ability to conduct participatory research because they have become more capable of implementing PVS trials and demonstrating improved agronomic practices. Farmers who participated in the training enhanced their technical skills in maize production, in selecting improved seed, and in post-harvest techniques.The contrasts between Oaxaca-located in Mexico where maize originated-and Nepal are interesting. In Oaxaca, the study shows only moderate use of improved maize, that the average age of active farmers is increasing (also due to strong migration), that there are declines in the area planted with maize, and that less maize is being grown as a commercial crop. In Nepal, however, the use of improved maize varieties is growing and plays increasingly important roles in improving livelihoods. For instance, the food self-suffi ciency of participant in HMRP areas improved from 11% in 2002 to 24% in 2006. This can be partially explained by higher maize yields (and surplus production) in Nepal compared to Oaxaca, although the gross margins are higher in Oaxaca in absolute terms. Also, while in Nepal maize was initially grown mainly for household consumption, now surplus maize is being sold. Compared to local varieties, the yield and area of improved varieties are increasing. Farmers in Nepal tend to prefer improved varieties, since they grow maize both to sell it at the market and for household food security, whereas in Mexico maize retains its distinct 'cultural' role as a traditional food.In terms of att ributing impacts, the impact pathways of the HMRP in Nepal are clearer and the benefi ts that can be att ributed to CIMMYT and NARC are more explicit. In Mexico, the impacts of the silos intervention can clearly be att ributed to CIMMYT. For maize improvement activities, partners' contributions must be recognized. The Nepal assessment showed that intermediaries played key roles in increasing research, extension, NGO, and farmer group capacity. The studies showed that, at farm level, increases in maize yield were greater in Nepal than in Mexico. This was because community-based multiplication of maize seed helped spread the benefi ts into neighboring districts in Nepal, whereas the same thing did not happen in Mexico.This study provides lessons on assessing impact through a livelihood lens, to capture the impacts of International Public Goods produced by CGIAR centers and partners more broadly. This paper assesses the impact of projects in Oaxaca, One general lesson learned for assessing impacts of research projects is that livelihood impacts and changes can be measured more accurately 5-10 years aft er the project has been completed rather than immediately aft er project completion. The earlier monitoring studies in Oaxaca (Smale et al. 1999;2003) were done only a few years aft er the Oaxaca Project ended. At that time, farmers still had most of the maize varieties selected during the project and the capacity-building was still fresh in their minds. So, the fi ndings of these earlier studies oft en diff er from the fi ndings of the 2006 impact study, conducted eight years aft er the project ended. By 2006, farmers had lost most of the CIMMYT maize selections (oft en because of drought) and the eff ects of capacity-building had dissipated to some extent. This suggests that, by assessing impacts too early, there is a risk that impacts will be overestimated. However, there is also the risk of underestimating impacts because the eff ects of actions that materialize aft er more time has passed will not be captured. For example, the impact of silos, facilitated by the Oaxaca Project, was found to be much larger in 2006 than in the late 1990s because the silo technology spread well from farmer-to-farmer aft er the 1990s. Another implication is that if research projects are to have broader and sustained development impacts the project duration should be adequate to ensure this. For example, while drought in the early 2000s explains to some extent the loss of some of the maize varieties promoted by the Oaxaca Project, had the project maintained a fi eld presence, through partners or the private sector, interested farmers could have still obtained project promoted maize varieties and sustained the impact from adopting maize selections.Geographic information system (GIS) tools, for spatial analysis and the extraction of secondary data relating to the biophysical environment of the study area, were used to collect georeferenced fi eld data during the Oaxaca study. There were several objectives associated with this component of the project. They included the application of new techniques for fi eld data collection, a characterization of the broader environment in which the study was undertaken, and an exploratory analysis of temporal changes in climate. GIS tools were used to determine the characteristics of maize plots in terms of their physical properties (area, slope, soils, and rainfall) and derived factors, such as market access. The analysis permitt ed the classifi cation of individual maize plots into broad categories as proxies for land quality for comparison with other socioeconomic and welfare indicators. In addition, spatial distribution patt erns of an adopted technology -small-scale grain storage silos-were investigated using geo-spatial statistical approaches. The exploratory analysis was undertaken to determine the temporal variation in climatic factors within the study area using a range of available data sources.All climatic variables were obtained from interpolated, long-term, normal monthly climate surfaces developed by Corbett and O'Brien (1997) using ANUSPLIN (Hutchinson, 1997). Daily meteorological station data, used as inputs for surface generation, spanned the period from 1960 to 1991. The proxy for the maize-growing season in rainfed conditions was a fi ve-month optimum climate model, which represented the fi ve consecutive months with the highest precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P/PE) ratios (that is, with greatest water availability). All climatic variables extracted at the plot level relate to this fi ve-month optimum season.Market access (travel time) surfaces were generated using the accessibility analyst extension for Arc View 3 (ESRI) developed by Farrow and Nelson (2001). This method creates friction surfaces based on assigned velocities to diff erent road classes and land use types, applies a weighting factor based on slope, and uses a cost-distance algorithm to calculate least-cost travel time to specifi c locations (markets). In this study actual market locations identifi ed by farmers were used for travel time calculations. The travel speed assigned to diff erent road classes and the weighting factors for slope categories were representative of Mexican conditions (Dempewolf et al. 2001 unpublished). A 4 km/h walking speed was assumed for all areas outside the road network. Road network data used in this study were from INEGI (1995) at a scale of 1:50,000.Using selected biophysical variables from the data described above, individual maize parcels were classifi ed into three land types, 'poor,' 'regular,' and 'good.' The criteria and ranges used for 'poor' and 'good' classifi cations are shown in Table 12. Parcels having most of the factors of a particular class were assigned to that class; all others were designated as 'regular.'Geo-spatial statistics were used to determine any signifi cant distribution patt erns in the locations where farmers owned small-scale grain storage silos. All farmer residential locations (with or without silos) associated with the project were included in the analysis, and tests for spatial auto-correlation were undertaken using Moran's I statistic. Hot-spot analysis was carried out using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for local spatial autocorrelation. All tests were implemented with the spatial statistics component of ArcGIS TM (ESRI).In order to explore any indications of trends in the short-term, local climate data were compiled from diff erent sources. Daily precipitation data were obtained from three meteorological stations located in the central valleys of Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juarez, Aeropuerto, and Santa Ana Tlapacoyan).Stations were chosen based on the reliability of their data (no missing data in August being a key criterion) that extended over a reasonable period (at least 20 years) and were located close to the study communities.  (NASA, 2006). Data for the study were extracted from the TRMM data archives for the period 1998 to 2006, using daily TRMM (3B42 V6 derived) data products. Daily TRMM precipitation data, averaged over the geographic area of the project sites, were used in the study. Given the critical importance of the August precipitation on maize yields in Oaxaca (Dilley, 1997), the total August precipitation by year was calculated for all datasets of precipitation regardless of their source. We also explored indicators of the likely planting date and the year-to-year variations. To develop a potential indicator, standard criteria were applied to TRMM data in the following way. A hypothetical planting date was assumed once daily precipitation estimates were greater than or equal to 3 mm on six out of seven consecutive days. It was also assumed that planting would not occur before 15 May in any year and that the actual planting would occur on the sixth rainfall day. The fi nal aspect concerned the year-to-year variation in moisture patt erns associated with critical maize development stages, such as fl owering. A rough approximation of the fl owering period was determined by adding 60 days to the assumed 'planting' date and then adding/subtracting 10 days on either side of this 'fl owering' date. Within this 20-day period, the total precipitation, the number of consecutive days with no signifi cant rainfall (daily precipitation less than or equal to 3 mm), and the absolute number of 'rain days' were calculated. No soil parameters-for example water holding capacity-were included in the study.A total of 149 individual maize plots were identifi ed, mapped, and classifi ed in the three communities included in the project. It was found that using high resolution Google Earth TM images facilitated the process of identifying and mapping plots. The communities diff er in terms of their accessibility to market: San Pablo Huitzo is the most accessible and San Lorenzo the least accessible (Figure 5). A summary of the individual maize plot classifi cations (using the criteria given in Table 12) by community is given in Table 13 and Table 14.Using the quality assessment of a farmer's principal maize plot as the criteria, 79% of the farmers who had 'good' principal maize plots were located in San Pablo Huitzo (land quality rank 1), 53% of the farmers who had 'regular' principal maize plots were in San Lorenzo (land quality rank 2), and 50% of farmers who had 'poor' principal maize plots were in Santa Ana (land quality rank 3). These data indicate the diff erences between the quality of the land and the natural resource base in the three communities. Given these data, we searched for any associations between land indicators and economic status. Indications of economic status for the study communities were obtained from two diff erent sources. An independent study into the geo-spatial dimensions of rural poverty in Mexico (Bellon et al. 2005b)   Pre (mm) Santa Ana Tlapacoyan Aeropuerto Oaxaca de Juarez 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 9 1 9 8 3 1 9 9 0 1 9 8 4 1 9 9 1 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 2 1 9 8 6 1 9 9 3 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 4 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 recorded in Oaxaca. Very localized showers or thunderstorms, typical of the region, may account for these diff erences. Even the two stations in the city of Oaxaca recorded within-year diff erences in August precipitation. It is assumed these were real diff erences rather than data errors. To deal with this variation, average August precipitation values were used wherever possible. The Dilley (1997) criterion, that an August precipitation of less than or equal to 60 mm is the main negative factor on the rainfed maize yield in Oaxaca, was taken as a proxy for a 'poor' maize year. Table 16 has assumed a number of 'poor' maize years by decade based on available meteorological data 6 .TRMM data for the period 1998 to 2006 allowed comparisons to be made with meteorological station data. The direct comparison of total August precipitation data from meteorological stations and TRMM revealed some diff erences. Not surprisingly, TRMM data were not entirely in line with the meteorological station data. Some datasets showed signifi cant diff erences for the same year, for example 1998 and 2005. Given the diff erent methods of estimating precipitation, and the diverse geographic areas, the diff erences between the datasets were expected.More valuable was the standardized nature of the TRMM dataset-e.g. standard geographic units, consistent methodology, no missing data daysand the opportunities for trend analysis within the dataset. Using the criteria described in the Materials and Methods section, the likely plantingdates were calculated based on precipitation patt erns. Using the likely planting date as a reference point, a critical 20-day moisture stress period, corresponding approximately to maize fl owering and based on the known maturity of the germplasm in Oaxaca, was determined and the number of consecutive dry and rain days calculated. The data are summarized in Table 17.The calculated planting dates varied considerably over the nine-year period, being spread over a four-to fi ve-week period. The earliest calculated planting date was 23 May and the latest was 25 June; the median planting date was 10 June. These dates were in line with expert opinion on the actual spread of planting dates in the area. There appeared to be no consistent trend of increasing earliness or lateness based on the calculated likely planting dates. Figure 8 shows data on the longest dry spells and the number of rain days for the critical 20-day 'fl owering' period. Linear trend lines fi tt ed to the data indicate that dry spells tend to be longer and, conversely, that the number of rain days is decreasing. Trends for August and 'fl owering' precipitation are shown in Figure 9. The TRMM   data appear to show a trend for precipitation to decrease over time in both cases. A similar trend was observed for the precipitation in the growing season (i.e. total rainfall from calculated planting date to end of October) estimated from TRMM data (data not shown). However, it must be noted that a similar, consistent trend of decreasing August precipitation was not apparent when averaged meteorological station data were used instead of TRMM data.The confl icting nature of the climatic indicators in this study indicates that more rigorous research would be needed to determine whether or not farmers' perceptions of a worsening climate have any scientifi c basis. On the one hand, some indicators seem to support the notion of a worsening climate as perceived by farmers in the focal group discussions (FGDs). But, on the other hand, other indicators, for example the decreasing frequency of 'poor' maize years per decade, contradict perceptions expressed in the FGDs. Several factors might account for this. For example group perceptions are notoriously biased toward recent, short-term events. In addition, group participants tend to frame their responses to questions to correspond with the perceived 'interest of the interviewer,' or with views expressed by the popular media. These factors potentially bias the results. On the other hand, despite this potential bias and subjectivity, farmers' perceptions are very valuable and oft en have a sound basis.","tokenCount":"8321"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"20d2e2f5ee9f0df7646eac7ef490b906","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/fd421f07-1887-4fc1-8ba4-c7bf24cfd7f5/retrieve","id":"620205003"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"e7a523cd-1051-4195-9d0c-537613fca9a1","pagecount":"16","content":"CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food-secure future. The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock provides research-based solutions to help smallholder farmers, pastoralists and agropastoralists transition to sustainable, resilient livelihoods and to productive enterprises that will help feed future generations. It aims to increase the productivity and profitability of livestock agri-food systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and eggs more available and affordable across the developing world. The Program brings together five core partners: the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) with a mandate on livestock; the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), which works on forages; the International Center for Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), which works on small ruminants and dryland systems; the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) with expertise particularly in animal health and genetics and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) which connects research into development and innovation and scaling processes.The Program thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system Maziwa Zaidi acknowledges financial support from the Government of Ireland through the ILRI-led 'more milk in Tanzania' project1 Background Maziwa Zaidi implementing partners led by the International Research Institute (ILRI) and the Agricultural Non State Actors Forum (ANSAF), held a policy forum from 23-24 April 2017 at the White Sands Hotel in Dar es Salaam. The forum examined inclusive investment opportunities in Tanzania's dairy value chains and ways to exploit evidence accumulated in the past five years.The key objectives were to: Showcase institutional and technological innovations that can be taken to scale, now;  Catalyse inclusive public and private co-investment in priority high social and economic return innovations;  Formulate policy initiatives and interventions necessary to sustain large-scale dairy sector innovations; and  Motivate deeper engagement in the Maziwa Zaidi program to strengthen its future contributions to evidence-based dairy development.The forum attracted diverse participation across public, private and civil society representatives from the dairy sector (See appendix 3).Speaking on behalf of the Irish Embassy in Tanzania, Niall Morris, Deputy Head of Development Cooperation at Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland -Embassy of Ireland, Tanzania said that the embassy was pleased to have been able to fund the MoreMilkiT project, some of whose findings were presented at the Annual Conference of Agricultural Economics Society in Dublin earlier this year. He emphasized the importance of research being taken up and the value of an event such as this that focused on taking the evidence into practice.The In this exercise where the research partners showcased their results and the potential for them to be taken up at wider scale, participants took on the perspectives of different stakeholders as milk traders and processors, public policy makers, public/private investors, private sector input providers, development workers and producer organisations. They were asked to question and critique the poster presenters using these specific roles to identify, and refine, suitable investment opportunities. The table below captures some of their insights. TAMPA and TAMPRODA should speak with one voice  Need for public investment in improving regulations  Public private partnerships are required to establish quality standards for milk that will create a level playing field  Processors should engage more with female farmers  Encourage investment in Ololilis (dry-season feeding mechanisms)  The focus on investments in Napier grass, feed quality and safety were good, but there needs to be more emphasis on water/seasonality  Hubs are useful but risky. Investment in hubs raises questions on their management and how to keep them going. Bundling of services appears to require more investments. Betters if the trader is also the input service provider. How to increase capacity utilization of chilling plants?  Liked solar/chilling tank because there is a gap that it can fill  High costs and taxes seems to be a major concern At the end of the day, the workshop conveners shared some observations and take home messages:1. Vibrant participation in the forum is evidence of the strong Maziwa Zaidi partnerships created over the last 5 years and also potential for new ones 2. There was a lot of interest from the authors to work on the posters, but more so, there has been a lot of interest from the audience in general to study the information on the posters. This further highlights the good partnership we have had in this R4D program and the increasing appreciation for the need for evidence in this kind of work. 3. Feedback from the groups is consistent with the evidence generated and our own hypotheses about what needs to be done to drive the industry forward. 4. Regarding low capacity utilization in milk processing -supporting the growth of productivity in the informal value chain could help increase processing capacity utilization. 5. Need for a database and more communication Key points from the poster sessions were:1. Posters on Feeds and Forages: Posters were liked with seed systems supplying improved germplasm being identified as the main constraint that should be addressed through public private partnerships (PPPs). Need to overcome cultural barriers to encourage further adoption. 2. Posters on Market Linkages: Hubs is a good idea but need to invest in overcoming risks 3. Genetics, farm efficiency and sustainability: Solar cooling stood out as a good idea but there is need to look at other alternatives like biogas 4. Posters on Multi-stakeholder Processes (MSPs): These was liked for offering opportunities for stakeholders to speak with one voice 5. Posters on Policy: Investing in PPPs can address the identified constraints. Government should invest in growth of private businesses by for example, reducing multiple regulatory barriers 6. Posters on Inclusive Dairy Development: There is need to encourage better connections for female farmers given cultural barriers.Key points across the scenario discussions were:Across the three scenarios discussed by the groups, catalyzing businesses in feeds supply was identified as an important investment area by public investors. For example, through fodder conservation centers, land use planning/addressing land tenure problems, intensifying feed production, training in dairying as a business, pasture management, and investing in water supply (e.g., through dams). This confirms the validity of scarcity of feeds and strong effects of seasonality that was identified through value chain assessments as the most important constraint at the start of Maziwa Zaidi in 2012.This exercise asked groups to start from an assigned scenario, to identify their investment target, and to prioritize the best-fit interventions ","tokenCount":"1066"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"adebb383fae5ad50f25228c0f5cfb3fe","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/87acfdea-fefd-429b-a9e1-1cbf132287bb/retrieve","id":"615948839"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"a2676c01-850b-47c6-9f1b-23886a0c9d7e","pagecount":"4","content":"Hassan Mruttu, Conrad Ndomba, Getachew Gebru and James Stapleton Tanzania is endowed with an abundance of natural resources-land, water, forage and a large livestock resource base. Despite the large livestock population-the third largest in Africa-the contribution of the sector to gross domestic product is fairly poor at 7.4%. While indigenous livestock in Tanzania-comprising 98% of the total-are well adapted to the local environment, e.g. resistant to disease, productivity is low. The annual growth rate of the sector is low, with rates declining from 3.5 to 2.4% between 2010 and 2015, far below the 9% projected in the 2010 National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty; this is largely due to low growth, high mortality, low reproductive rates and poor product quality.High population growth and rising living standards are putting pressure on Tanzania's livestock owners to increase the productivity of their animals. Quick-win geneticbased technologies-including artificial insemination with oestrous synchronization and community-based schemes to improve indigenous breeds-can significantly contribute to the transformation of the value chains for cattle, dairy, small ruminants, pork and poultry. Modest improvements in these production coefficients and value addition through processing, could significantly increase output and income from the livestock sector.Analyses by experts who developed Tanzania's livestock master plan (LMP) argue that genetic improvements could help increase Tanzania's production of dairy milk, poultry meat and eggs, pork and red meat by 77%, 666% and 40%, 69% and 50%, respectively by 2022. National livestock genetic improvement programs could, thus, significantly help reduce poverty by helping millions of family farmers upgrade their traditional subsistence livestock production systems to market-oriented, profit-making, enterprises that directly improve livelihoods and reduce food insecurity. Transformation of the livestock sector would also benefit Tanzania's growing urban consumers by offering them more, and more affordable, meat, milk and eggs.Crossbreeding initiatives could increase the number of crossbred cattle and improved pork by 337% and 45% in family systems and by 163% and 180% in specialized systems respectively, with milk production by crossbreds increasing tenfold and parturition rates by 50% compared to local breeds. The number of improved and crossbred birds would increase by almost 75%, and crossbred chickens raised in specialized production systems would increase their egg and meat production three-and thirteen-fold respectively, with significant decreases in mortality rates.However, global industrial livestock operations are growing twice as fast as traditional mixed farming systems and six times as fast as traditional grazing systems. In response to growing demand, there has been a strong move to depend on few specialized livestock species and breeds. Such an approach ignores the scope for improving the productivity of locally-adapted breeds which are often more resistant to disease and climate change. In Tanzania, some vulnerable indigenous breeds risk extinction. In this context, there is compelling need to determine the extent of differentiation among livestock breeds at phenotypic and molecular levels.The focus needs to be on the phenotypic characterization, parameter estimates, and documentation of the local policies and interventions. This would lay the ground for the establishment of conservation priorities for indigenous livestock breeds in the country.The critical issues facing genetic improvement of the national herd include the need to maintain/develop appropriate genotypes and streamline breeding efforts. The absence of coordinated breeding and selection programs hinders capacity to meet demand by communities for improved breeds. Resilience to diseases, community preferences and high twining rates in small ruminants, should be the characteristics considered in animal genetic resources (AnGR) programs focusing on breeding and conservation.The coordination of AnGR in Tanzania should prioritize the establishment of reliable and sustainable germplasm delivery systems and encourage the private sector, including farmers, to actively engage in genetic improvement system. The important species and their respective breeds-as per the Tanzania livestock master plan-are cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry. The main focus of sheep and goat breeding is to improve growth rate thus mature weight, prolificacy, survival rate for meat animals and milk yield for dairy goats. Indigenous goats form the foundation stock to improve survival rates and some local strains are known for special traits like twinning. Exotic breeds that can be used for crossbreeding There is a need to ensure that the choice of breeds meet the requirements of the livestock production typologies and the preferences of communities. In order to make best use of the country's AnGRs, the authorities will need to:• formulate and implement the animal breeding act, and associated regulations, to facilitate the establishment of institutions to coordinate the AnGR activities;• undertake the characterization of the environment and animal genetic resources in the country to determine the phenotypic and genotypic diversity, and uniqueness in such breed-types, helping match breed types to appropriate production environments;• develop and implement a sustainable system of animal genetic resource management to enhance breeding, selection and conservation programs. This will include the development of methods for open nucleus breeding schemes and renovation of public livestock farms and artificial insemination centres;• establish data recording system for on-station and on-farm breed evaluation programs for both locally adapted and exotic breeds and their crosses;• facilitate the delivery of capacity development support to stakeholders in terms of training and the strengthening of the animal breeding infrastructure, such as artificial insemination and multiple ovulation and embryo transfer laboratories; and• facilitate the organization of breeding societies and breeders associations in all production system typologies to help them choose the appropriate type of breeding programs-crossbreeding or withinbreed breeding, selection criteria, etc.-best suited to meet their needs.The main constraints facing poultry breeding are the lack of information on breeding programs used by commercial breeders, and a successfully tested on-farm local poultry breed. The proposed strategies to support the development of a poultry breeding program include the:• establishment of a breeding committee to make decisions on the breeds and strains of chicken to be used for commercial poultry production;• development of locally adapted poultry breeds/ strains either through breeding or testing, as well as the approval of breeds developed elsewhere; and• undertaking of the characterization and selection within the indigenous chicken breeds and the establishment of desirable traits to be improved and conserved.The control of potential inbreeding within the current herd, the introduction of improved breeds, and the upgrading and introduction of modern technologies should be main areas of focus for pig breeding programs. Decisions on which pig breeds to be selected should be taken in accordance with the needs of pig associations and market demand. As such, the importation and multiplication of desired breeds should be undertaken by private sector organizations and coordinated by the government through the ministry responsible for livestock. Producers should obtain breeding stock from farms with a track record for good herd performance.  ILRI thanks all donors that globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system","tokenCount":"1114"}

data/part_5/0133060872.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"82ddbd3ccd23d6f2428751a118768b36","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/828efb3f-41fb-4dd6-8839-362775a7da2e/retrieve","id":"-2056818022"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"5d321762-6b2e-4eb2-8ea2-54fa81cff2d4","pagecount":"18","content":"The Excellence in Agronomy Initiative (EiA) seeks to be a catalyst in achievement of agronomic gain by millions of women, men and young smallholder farmers in the global south, through the delivery of data-driven agronomy solutions at scale while also achieving a positive impact on the CGIAR's impact targets of Nutrition, health and food security; Poverty Reduction, Livelihood and Jobs; Gender equality, youth and social inclusion; Climate adaptation and mitigation; and Environmental Health and Biodiversity. The programme will focus on key performance indicators of Yield, Yield Quality and Profitability; Yield Stability and Reduced Risk; Resource Use efficiency (nutrients, water, and labor), and Soil Health.EiA follows the innovation logic wherein we move from an idea, to developing a concept, testing or experimenting with the concept, running pilots, which if successful lead to scaling activities. The initiative will therefore tap into existing innovations and expertise within the CGAIR and other innovation systems, match them with proven demand from demand partners from the private, public and NGO sector to develop Use Cases.The process below provides guidance on how EiA will enrol new Use Cases, beyond the cohort of Use Cases developed within the Incubation Phase of EiA.The Use Case Enrolment Process is driven by the EiA team, in collaboration with regional teams from participating CG centres. As outlined below, the process starts with initial engagement with potential demand partners to establish the existence of a collaboration opportunity to deliver agronomy at scale using EiA developed tools.The engagement with partners is based on primarily understanding the specific demand partners' area of service provision, and the value add that tools curated by the EiA programme can add. The engagement process must identify specific minimum viable products (MVPs) that the EiA programme can co create with scaling partners, that can solve a significant need within the demand partners processes while ensuring that there is real and meaningful agronomic gain by the target beneficiaries (small holder farmers) The identification of opportunities for the EiA Initiative Use Cases is driven by Regional Teams at a local level, and the EiA Chief Growth Officer at a global level. Additional considerations will relate to the potential of the MVP to scale, thereby maximizing impact. Potential demand categories are presented in Table 1. Help smallholder farmers improve their yields, boost incomes, and mitigate downside risks (e.g., climate, pests) by supporting the delivery of high quality and low-cost information, advice, and decision support tools to smallholder farmers and to those who directly interface with them (e.g., private/public extension agents) informed by geospatial agronomy insights and tailored to the context of the specific farmer, farm, and field Agriintelligence for policy and plan ning Support the development and dissemination of geospatial agricultural intelligence tools that can empower faster, cheaper, and more factually grounded agrisector surveillance and macro policy and resource allocation decisions of national and regional stakeholders including gov't policymakers, NSOs, researchers, development practitioners, donors, and investors with the ultimate goal of supporting successful agricultural sector transformation Agriintelligence for agribusiness Support the development and dissemination of geospatial agronomic and agroeconomic decision support tools for agribusiness players active in smallholder value chains to empower faster and better decisions on market-entry and market expansion, market sizing, farmer segmentation/targeting, commercial project planning/target-setting, and investment analysis (e.g., ROI estimates) to drive ag transformation Agri R&D and product development Facilitate the development and dissemination of field data capture, agronomic diagnostics, and decision support tools to reduce the costs of product innovation, shorten R&D-through-market entry timing cycles, and aid decisionmaking for the design and development of locally relevant, high quality, and economically viable agri inputs (e.g., seeds, fertilizer/ pesticide, mechanization equipment) in order to maximize SHF yields and incomes Financial risk mitigation Help integrate low-cost and high quality geospatial agronomic intelligence into the work of SHF-focused financial institutions (e.g., traditional banks, MFIs, SACCOs, insurance companies) and specialized financial risk intermediaries (e.g., credit risk and insurance risk analytics fintechs) in order to help such organizations further mitigate financial product risks, thereby increasing access to essential financial products for SHFsIn the event that there is indicative alignment between the EiA programme and the potential demand partner, a formal process will commence with Due Diligence, leading up to a formal engagement to develop a Use Case.The Due Diligence process (see the guidance document) is essential in determining, in a structured manner, if the potential demand partner brings in an appropriate set of capabilities that match the objectives of the EiA programme. The Due Diligence process will systematically review the Demand Partner's demand for EiA Agronomy Tools, their Dissemination Capacity and the potential long-term sustainability of the solution.The Due Diligence process is driven by the Chief Growth Officer, with support from the Regional Team Leads, and the potential Demand Partners themselves. A decision to proceed with the potential demand partner is arrived at by consensus within the Core Team of the EiA Initiative. In the event that the Core Team approves the Due Diligence, the next phase would be to develop the Use Case using the Use Case Template.A demand partner that is approved by the Core Team is then supported to describe the proposed Use Case using a structured template. The Excellence in Agronomy (EiA) Initiative aims at developing and delivering agronomy at scale solutions based on demand from scaling partners. Such demand is then formulated and operationalized around Use Cases. This term is derived from software/systems engineering and in the context of EiA, a Use Case has the following components and characteristics:• An active scaling partner (public or private) with and active scaling network, reaching many tens of thousands of smallholder farming households.A defined zone of influence, defined in geographical, agricultural value chains, and farming systems terms The Use Case template is completed by the Chief Growth Officer, the relevant Regional Team Lead and the Demand Partner. It will provide the next level of information on how the Use Case can proceed. The completed Use Case Memorandum / Template will be evaluated by the Core Team for a decision to proceed to a Term Sheet that outlines the terms of engagement for the Use Case. At Use Case memorandum stage, feedback can be provided for additional refinement of Use Case or alternatively to terminate the development process if there are fatal flaws in the Use Case logic. However, if the Use Case is approved, a Term Sheet is prepared to provide guidance on actual collaboration activities.The Term Sheet is the document that spells out the key elements of the partnership and the responsibilities of each party. This is based on the generic workflow that has been developed for Use Cases (Figure 2). The Term Sheet document is populated by the Chief Growth Officer and once finalised the parties can sign a formal collaboration agreement based on the terms outlined within the Term Sheet.The final stage of the Use Case on boarding / enrolment process is the resultant Collaboration Agreement that will have the Term Sheet, Theory of Change, Budget, Workplans and Results Chain which will make up the monitoring framework of the Use Case.Due diligence tool for scaling partnersTo ensure effectiveness and sustainability of the gains of the EiA initiative, there is a need for an assessment of the potential scaling partner's (organization) capacity before a cocreation process can start. This write-up contains the data collection guidelines of the due diligence tool to access the capacity of organizations. The Core Team of the EiA will conduct the assessment and take a decision to proceed or not to proceed, based on the assessment of the information.The tool centers around three main evaluation topics seen below which each comprise three criteria with indicators having four indicator levels that describe certain levels that apply to the scaling partner on a semantic scale with scores from 1 to 4.1. Demand for EiA agronomy solutions 2. Dissemination Network/capacity for EiA agronomy solutions 3. Sustainability for EiA agronomy solutionsThe first level is the lowest score, or a level that would be least desirable, while this progressively improves in the subsequently levels with level four describing the most desirable features or situation for a scaling partners to have-or be in. Currently, each criterium has an equal importance weight i.e. the overall score is calculated in a linear way with 9 (9 times 1) being the lowest and 36 (9 times 4) being the highest score.It will be up to a subsequent scrutiny of the assessors (panel members) to note if for a particular scaling partner, a certain low score is still at an acceptable or unacceptable level i.e. if a higher score in one category -criterium can compensate for a low score in another criterium. In such cases a linearly compensatory decision rule would apply or:• A non-compensatory decision-making strategy eliminates alternatives that do not meet a particular criterion. • A compensatory decision-making strategy weighs the positive and negative attributes of the considered alternatives and allows for positive attributes to compensate for the negative ones.As each indicator describes a certain level of performance -situation (not just a score from 1-4 like low-medium-high-very high), it may happen that a scaling partner is not exactly within a certain level and-or there can be an information gap to exactly pin-point its applicable level, the assessor should in such cases objectively select the level that 'best fits' the level for the scaling partner, whilst can note down certain considerations.Ideally, the assessors are provided with a comprehensive information package for the scaling partner under evaluation which could be the result of a prior web-literature review. See the columns below on 'How to collect indicator information' (e.g. Desk-website research) and 'Evidence' (e.g. Market research reports). Whilst, the assessor is encouraged to access also other sources of information, use possible own experience with the scaling partner and-or inquire about the organization from third parties (Key Informants).Information on for instance websites may also require scrutinization on credibility, realities on ground etc. It is not the idea that the tool is shared with the scaling partner to obtain the information, although inquiries -interviews with persons within the scaling partner organization can be queried where possible -desirable. Sources of information and evidence used as well as possible information gaps should be added to the excel columns.IV. Due diligence criteria for scaling partners in the context of EiA   The organization Is somewhat aware of the weakest links or critical success factors in their business but is constrained in using this information to improve their business • It does not engage in needs assessment on complimentary bundled services.• It integrates some elements of other services in their portfolio but more on a trial and error basis • It has no R&D and MEL system to update its portfolio against emerging new products -services and improve service delivery 3 • The organization Is aware of the weakest links or critical success factors in their business and uses this information to improve their business • It engages in client's in needs assessment on complimentary bundled services • It integrates comprehensive packages of other services accordingly, whilst this has not taken off at scale yet • It has a current or emerging R&D and MEL system to continuously update its portfolio against emerging new products -services and improve service delivery 4 • The organization Is effectively dealing at scale with the weakest links or critical success factors in their business • It engages in client's in needs assessment on complimentary bundled services • It integrates comprehensive packages of other services accordingly and at scale• It maintains an R&D and MEL system to continuously update its portfolio against emerging new products -services and improve service delivery 3. Sustainability for EiA agronomy solutionsReturn on Investment/ revenue generated via donor funding versus commercial revenue streams (financial health of the entity) 1 • The organization has not developed the full cost cycle• The organization has no policy for the affordability and the needs of SHFs when setting rates • The organization (near) fully depends on revenue generated via donor funding (>80%)• It has no understanding on the opportunities for diversifying revenue and raising capital • It is in the process of developing a policy to consider affordability and the needs of SHFs when setting rates • The organization substantially depends on revenue generated via donor funding (50-70%) versus commercial revenue streams • Developing modalities for diversifying revenue and raising capital 3 • It understands the full life cycle cost of the organization but has not developed plans• Considers affordability and the needs of SHFs when setting rates, but low billing and collection rate • The organization somewhat depends on revenue generated via donor funding (20-40%) versus commercial revenue streams • Modalities in place for diversifying revenue and raising capital operational but in an early stage 4 • Understands and plans for full life-cycle cost of the organization• It considers affordability and the needs of SHFs when setting predictable and adequate rates and plans to invest in future needs • The organization is slightly-to not dependent on revenue generated via donor funding (<20%) versus commercial revenue streams • Well established and effective modalities in place for diversifying revenue and raising capitalCustomer / End-user satisfaction 1 • The customer / end-user is not provided with reliable, responsive and affordable services by the organization • Services are seen by the end-users as ad-hoc and unreliable, and regulatory standards are not taken into consideration • Average customer satisfaction score (CSS) <2 (1 is very unsatisfied & 5 is very satisfied)  Step in the generic Use Case Workflow Roles and responsibilities for the demand partner Roles and responsibilities for EiA 1. Agree on core partnership, assembled around the demand partner, including CGIAR, NARS, Extension service providers, D4AG, etc 2. Develop the MVP around the demand, including aspects of user group, target area, farming system, information, format, gender dimensions 3a. Decide on the required data (e.g., plot, remote sensing), to prototype the MVP and check their availability/ access; gather and/or collect new data 3b. Decide on the required tools (e.g., analytics, modelling) to prototype the MVP and check their availability/ access; gather and/or collect new tools 4a. Develop a prototype (V0) of the MVP, while engaging with the user groups to ensure alignment 4b. Obtain commitment from the client/partner to validate the prototype (V0) of the MVP 5a. EiA validates the prototype MVP with the user groups on","tokenCount":"2384"}

data/part_5/0145896687.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"f9b9e3a2c6bfabdf728c12085b9a35a6","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/9a1b2fcf-8259-4ea3-8ca6-7e759ccdc10d/retrieve","id":"-8170607"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"efbfa1f0-58c2-4606-b08d-1cf4f3024636","pagecount":"1","content":"Taenia solium, is a zoonotic helminth causing three diseases; taeniasis (in humans), neurocysticercosis (NCC, in humans) and porcine cysticercosis (PCC, in pigs). Understanding the coinfection status can support the integration of control of the parasites using Oxfendazole which kills both T.solium cysts and some of the GIT parasites in pigs. o There was high likelihood of pigs being infected with both PCC and GI parasite.o The high rate of co-infection presents an opportunity for integrated control using oxfendazole. To determine the Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis (PCC) and gastrointestinal (GI) parasites co-infection status in pigs.o The apparent animal level and household level seroprevalence was 4.8% (95% CI 2.7 -7.1) and 9.7% (95% CI 5.5 -14.4) respectively, differed across the two districts (p = 0.017) but not with sex, age and breed of the animal (p > 0.05).o Prevalence of GIT parasites: strongyles 79.0% (95% CI 74.3-83.6), coccidia 73.3% (95% CI 68.3-78.6), Trichuris spp. 7.4% (95% CI 4.9-10.6), Strongyloides spp. 2.1% (95% CI 0.7-3.5) and Ascaris spp.,4.9% (95% CI 2.8-7.4).o The proportion of co-infection was 57.4%.o At multivariable level, knowledge that pigs get infected by eating dirty feed was a predictor for PCC seropositivity (P = 0.005).","tokenCount":"195"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"188babf67e56fcc1bfd8e15719fd2a04","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/6ebc7d10-58a9-46bc-bd2a-ff67877afe1e/retrieve","id":"-655034769"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"37a14cd3-5ee6-446f-b56c-4c62ab5c42df","pagecount":"4","content":"Despite ongoing structural changes, small-scale processors, grocers, market vendors and food service operators dominate the food systems of most lowand lower middle-income countries.• Unsafe food is widespread in informal food distribution channels, having national public health implications.• Very few countries have coherent strategies for tackling food safety risks in the informal sector.• Most of the policy attention and resources now devoted to domestic food safety in the developing world focuses on strengthening centralized systems for 'food control'.• Doing more of the same things is not going to deliver safer food in the informal sector.This brief is based on the report 'New directions for tackling food safety risks in the informal sector of developing countries' that was commissioned by ILRI and the CGIAR Initiative on One Health. It presents a summary of findings from the synthesis of food safety research done in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) and outlines the way forward for the more effective and sustainable improvement of food safety management in LMICs with a focus on interventions.Despite ongoing structural changes, the food systems of most low-and lower middle-income countries still feature a preponderance of very small-scale processors, grocers, market vendors and food service operators. These players and their informal distribution channels are especially important in the domestic markets for fish, meat, fruits and vegetables; all high-nutrient foods which are also leading vectors of foodborne disease. For a variety of reasons, related to demography, economic geography, poverty, and income and opportunity inequality, food market fragmentation and informality will remain a prominent fixture of developing-country food systems for the foreseeable future.Unsafe food is a widespread issue in informal food distribution channels, having national public health implications. The evidence for this comes from studies in many locations. The high incidence of microbiological, chemical, or other forms of food contamination within these channels stems from a combination of factors, both internal and external to the pertinent food businesses. These include inadequate food safety awareness, poor hygienic and/or food storage and preparation practices, and deficient infrastructure and environmental conditions. In many instances, both the incentives and the capacities to provide safer food are weak. This is a societal and economic problem and not a trivial or transitional issue. We estimate that the traditional/informal food sector accounts for a large majority of the public health burden of foodborne disease in low and lower middleincome countries.Very few countries have coherent strategies for tackling food safety risks in the informal sector. Often, the operative approach involves periodic attempts to disrupt small-scale food operators, in the hope of hastening their business demise and ushering something more consistent with the official vision of a 'modern' food system and 'orderly' cities. This exclusion model does not make food safer, and it harms the ability of many consumers to access and afford nutritional and convenient foods. It also erodes the livelihood of poor informal business operators. Many low-and lower middle-income countries (and development assistance projects therein) have targeted informal players with food safety awareness-raising and low-cost technology uptake interventions. These have tended to bring short-term benefits but have generally not been scalable nor brought sustainable results when not paired with other interventions impacting infrastructure and/or the prevailing incentives facing food operators.Most of the policy attention and resources now devoted to domestic food safety in the developing world focuses on strengthening centralized systems for 'food control'. This has involved passage of a modern food law, and investments in testing laboratories, food company inspection units, and national agency capacities for food hazard and foodborne disease surveillance. Resource limitations have led incipient food safety agencies to focus on oversight and other interactions with medium and larger food enterprises and the 'modern' dimensions of food retail and food service. Many national food safety agencies have little or no contact with informal food operators and businesses. This is unlikely to change anytime soon. And, there do not appear to be appreciable spillovers to the domestic informal sector from investments in enhanced food safety management in export-oriented value chains.Doing more of the same things is not going to deliver safer food in the informal sector. A very different approach needs to be operationalized and tested. This would involve adjustments in institutional mandates, the locus and thematic clustering of interventions, and the approach towards regulatory delivery vis-à-vis this sector. In this modified approach, emphasis would be placed on:• Local action, centrally guided. The bulk of interventions, both regulatory and facilitative, need to come at the municipal level and the drive for safer food in the informal sector should be embedded in strategies for healthy, sustainable, and resilient cities. National agencies would still have important roles, mobilizing resources and providing guidelines and technical backstopping. At the local level, multistakeholder (i.e. consumer, community, business association, and government) platforms should be further nurtured and utilized. In many instances, effective action by municipal governments will require a mindset change which recognizes the important role played by the informal sector not only in terms of livelihoods but also in urban food and nutritional security.• Multisectoral action. Stand-alone food safety interventions may not be the best option. Rather, improving the safety of food in the informal sector can be better achieved and better resourced when bundled with interventions to improve nutrition, increase access to potable water/improved sanitation, improve environmental management, upgrade urban infrastructure, and/or others. This also implies the need firmly to mainstream food safety into urban planning and into approaches to deliver improved municipal services.• Rebalancing the use of sticks and carrots. Strict enforcement of regulatory provisions is unlikely to be effective vis-à-vis most informal sector food operators. Rather, gradual, and continuous enhancements in practices and/or facilities should be sought. Where feasible, greater effort should go into engaging and enabling the informal market operators to strengthen both their incentives and capacities to carry out their businesses in ways which result in safer food. It would be beneficial for cities (or local branches of ministries) to employ as many food hygiene/food business advisors as they do (regulatory) inspectors.• Differentiating local strategies and priorities. This is not a field where 'one size fits all'. The risk profile for different types of informal food operators varies as does the likely scope for interventions targeting them. And the settings for actions vary a lot, not only between low-, lower middle-and upper middleincome countries, but also within individual countries.Operationalizing this decentralized and multisectoral approach will need to be tailored, pragmatically, to prevailing circumstances in terms of specific coalitions for action and how interventions are sequenced or integrated with one another. This is common practice in the evolving field of urban food policy and governance, yet there are fewer applications of this for food safety.Elements of this approach are already being applied in some situations and their implementation should be closely monitored, and emerging lessons shared. For example, a variant of this approach is currently being implemented through the Eat Right India program and complementary initiatives where efforts are pursuing a combination of healthy eating, safer food, and environmental sustainability goals through state-and municipal-level interventions, guided by a central government agency. The societal roles of informal food distribution channels are formally recognized in this program and a variety of approaches are being used to engage informal food business operators, individually, in clustered locations and through representative associations.","tokenCount":"1208"}

data/part_5/0165771953.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"87a2c7350cb7c5cd9c43863cde546b38","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/05482a07-1a22-416b-9510-77e07f80f38e/retrieve","id":"-581187914"},"keywords":["climate services","multi-model ensemble","North American multi-model ensemble project","seasonal forecasting"],"sieverID":"aee1054f-c30a-4799-a5e9-d479b8d816ca","pagecount":"14","content":"Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall (BSMR), typically from June through September (JJAS), represents the main source of water for multiple sectors. However, its high spatial and interannual variability makes the seasonal prediction of BSMR crucial for building resilience to natural disasters and for food security in a climate-risk-prone country. This study describes the development and implementation of an objective system for the seasonal forecasting of BSMR, recently adopted by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The approach is based on the use of a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) of seven state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project. The lead-1 (initial conditions of May for forecasting JJAS total rainfall) hindcasts (spanning 1982-2010) and forecasts (spanning 2011-2018) of seasonal total rainfall for the JJAS season from these seven GCMs were used. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) regression is used to calibrate the raw GCMs outputs against observations, which are then combined with equal weight to generate final CMME predictions. Results show, compared to individual calibrated GCMs and uncalibrated MME, that the CCAbased calibration generates significant improvements over individual raw GCM in terms of the magnitude of systematic errors, Spearman's correlation coefficients, and generalised discrimination scores over most of Bangladesh areas, especially in the northern part of the country. Since October 2019, the BMD has been issuing real-time seasonal rainfall forecasts using this new forecast system.Located in sub-tropical South Asia, Bangladesh is one of the world's most densely populated countries. Bangladesh is characterised by a tropical monsoon-type climate, with a warm and rainy summer, and a pronounced dry season in winter, features that make it highly vulnerable to the effects of interannual climate variability (Rahman & Lateh, 2015) and change (Huq, 2001). The country experiences an unimodal rainfall distribution, with most of the rainfall typically concentrated from June through September (JJAS). During this period, Bangladesh receives about 70% of the total annual rainfall, with coefficient of variability that has been quantified around 12% (Ahasan et al., 2010). The pattern of the Bangladesh's summer monsoon rainfall (BSMR) is highly variable spatially, exhibiting a general west-east climatological gradient in annual rainfall ranging from 1500 to 4400 mm (Montes, Acharya, Hassan, & Krupnik, 2021;Nashwan et al., 2019). This pattern of variability strongly shapes human livelihoods, especially in agriculture, which is a mainstay of the country's economy. For instance, crop management decisions and production losses often occur in Bangladesh as a consequence of early or later arrival of rains, along with excess or deficient monsoon rainfall amounts (Nahar et al., 2018). Consequently, reliable BSMR forecasting at actionable time scales could potentially play a significant role in the planning and management of agriculture and other activities such as flood management, urban planning, water-resource management and optimal operation of irrigation systems (Hansen et al., 2006;Montes, Acharya, Stiller-Reeve, Kelley, & Hassan, 2021).Seasonal climate-prediction efforts in Bangladesh have been based mostly on statistical and empirical forecasting methods using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for rainfall and temperature prediction (Bari et al., 2015;Mahmud et al., 2017;Mohsin et al., 2012;Rahman & Lateh, 2015) or regression models of the teleconnections between rainfall and various predictors such as sea-surface temperature (SST; Hossain et al., 2019;Mannan et al., 2015;Rahman et al., 2013a). ARIMA models have been used to predict rainfall with lead times of up to 12 months (Mahmud et al., 2017), but the lack of statistical significance of year-to-year autocorrelation can lead to limited forecasting skills (Dahale & Singh, 1993). A more widely-used approach has been the use of empirical relationships between observed BSMR and predictors such as sea-surface temperature, surface air temperature and pressure gradients (Hossain et al., 2019;Rahman et al., 2013b). For instance, the prediction of the monthly and seasonal frequency of rainy days and heavy rainfall events have been attempted using SST as a predictor (Mannan et al., 2015), and skill is higher than for the monsoon seasonal total amount, consistent with results from other parts of the world (Robertson et al., 2009). Nevertheless, the relatively weak teleconnection between sources of seasonal predictability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal climate in Bangladesh strongly limits the skill of these rainfall forecasts compared to other parts of the globe (Ahmed et al., 2017;Cash et al., 2017;Hossain et al., 2019). Due to the complexity of the diverse climate interactions in the vicinity of Bangladesh, non-linear and data-driven forecasting methods, such as artificial neural networks, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and genetic algorithms, may have some advantages over linear methods (Banik et al., 2009) if sufficiently long time-series are available.State-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) that represent atmospheric processes provide an alternative non-linear physically-based approach to statistical modelling (Kang et al., 2004;Kang and Shukla, 2005). This approach may produce more accurate and reliable climate predictions compared to statistical models based on empirical relationships (mostly linear) from observational data (Barnston & Tippett, 2017). However, predictions from GCMs often require correction due to their inherent systematic biases (Acharya et al., 2013;Tippett et al., 2007;Wilks, 2002). Calibration methods can be used to modify the amplitudes of large-scale patterns, and also to refine the details of anomaly patterns for local downscaling (Acharya et al., 2021;Barnston & Tippett, 2017;Doblas-Reyes et al., 2005;Tippett et al., 2008;Wilks, 2017). In this sense, multiple efforts have been carried out in order to quantify the improvements in skill from GCMs after calibration over different regions worldwide. However, in Bangladesh, these efforts have focused on single-location approaches but not at the country level (e.g., Montes et al., 2022).Officially, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) is responsible for providing operational seasonal and monthly monsoon climate predictions to climate information users. BMD has used a subjective consensus approach based on meteorologists' experience to generate products using all available Global Producing Center's forecasts and other available information. This subjectivelybased forecasting approach, however, has been found to be a poor fit for many decision makers interested in more reliable and objective forecasts. There is an increasing demand for high-resolution seasonal forecasts over Bangladesh at sufficient lead times to allow response planning from users in agriculture, hydrology, disaster management, energy, health, and other sectors. This demand has prompted the research for the development of an objective seasonal forecast system following the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) recently published seasonal-forecast guidance (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2020). The guidance advocates the use of an objective seasonal forecast procedure, defined as a traceable, reproducible, and welldocumented set of steps that allows the quantification of forecast quality. The WMO has started to promote the adoption of such objective-based forecasting methods at Regional Climate Outlook Forums (WMO, 2017(WMO, , 2020) ) and by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. In response, an objective forecasting system was developed for seasonal forecasting for Bangladesh, similar to others recently developed around the world (Acharya, Dinku, et al., 2020;Acharya et al., 2021;IRI, 2020). This advanced forecast system enables calibration, combination, and verification of objective climate forecasts from the state-of-theart GCMs of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, and positions BMD to generate and deliver targeted climate information products that could be made relevant to the needs of decision-makers. Although multi-model-based methods have been explored for the Indian subcontinent (Acharya, Kar, et al., 2011;Kar et al., 2012;Rajeevan et al., 2012), this is the first time, to our knowledge, that they have been used for Bangladesh at the country level, aligned with BMD needs. As of October 2019, this new forecast system is used in real-time by the BMD (http://live.bmd.gov.bd/p/ThreeMonth283/). Therefore, from an operational perspective, the potential benefits of this new forecasting system need to be assessed in terms of hindcast skill assessment.In this article, we describe the development and performance of an objective forecasting system which is based on calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) system in the seasonal prediction of BSMR and compare its performance with uncalibrated GCMs. The paper is organised as follows: in Section 2, we briefly describe the data used in this study, including NMME GCMs and the observational reference; in Section 3, we explain the procedures of the proposed canonical correlation analysis (CCA)-based calibration methods and illustrate how the methods are employed in practice to make CMME-based forecasts. In Section 4, we examine the performance of calibrated individual model outputs compared to that of uncalibrated outputs, along with validation of the CMME system compared; in Section 5, we provide a brief discussion and draw conclusions.Developed by the Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and BMD, the latest Enhancing National Climate Services for Bangladesh Meteorological Department (ENACTS-BMD) dataset (Acharya, Faniriantsoa, et al., 2020) version is used in this study. The ENACTS-BMD dataset is a highresolution (0.05 × 0.05 ) daily gridded rainfall and temperature dataset constructed by blending data from BMD weather stations, satellite products (for rainfall) and reanalysis data (for temperature). Since February 2020, BMD archives and maintains this dataset. Its record begins in January 1981 and is ongoing (updated every month in real-time) at daily, decadal and monthly temporal resolutions. For constructing gridded rainfall, BMD data from almost entire country's weather stations (54) are merged with rainfall estimates from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP; Funk et al., 2015). Compared with other available gridded precipitation products, ENACTS-BMD performs better in terms of monsoon total rainfall (Montes, Acharya, & Hassan, 2021). In this study, seasonal total rainfall for the period June through September (JJAS) are accumulated from daily data for the years 1982 to 2018. Figure 1 presents the climatology, interannual standard deviation and first empirical orthogonal function which (explains 44% of total variance) of total JJAS rainfall from ENACTS-BMD product during the study period.Hindcasts and forecasts from seven GCMs belonging to the NMME project phase 2 (Kirtman et al., 2014) were used in this study (details of each model can be found in the corresponding reference in Table 1). The NMME project coordinates intra-seasonal to interannual climate predictions from climate-modelling centres in the United States and Environment Canada. The NMME products provide opportunities to characterise and quantify the uncertainty associated with model structure and initial conditions using a large number of contributing models, each consisting of several ensemble members. The lead-1 (initial conditions of May for forecasting JJAS total rainfall) hindcasts (spanning 1982-2010) and forecasts (spanning 2011-2018) of seasonal total rainfall for the JJAS season from these seven GCMs were used. As the statistical post-processing process, especially CCA, required longer training sample, we have combined hindcast (29 years) and forecast runs (8 years; altogether 37 years) from these models, under the assumption that the hindcasts and forecasts are consistent with each other. These models have different number of ensemble members that were averaged to generate an ensemble mean and having a common 1 resolution spatial grid. These NMME monthly hindcast and forecast datasets were obtained from the Columbia University's International Research Institute's data library (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia. edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/).As described in Section 1, we used a calibrated multimodel ensemble (CMME) approach. This approach involves calibrating individual GCMs using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) based regression and assessing their skill against raw GCM outputs. The calibrated GCMs are averaged (equal weighting) to make a final CMME time series. The CMME-based forecast is subsequently compared against observations to assess its performance in relation to the uncalibrated forecasts. The processing chain is summarised in the flow chart presented in Figure 2.CCA is widely used for calibration of forecasts from GCMs, for which the spatio-temporal patterns of GCM rainfall are projected onto the observed patterns (Barnston & Tippett, 2017;Tippett et al., 2007Tippett et al., , 2008)). CCA is basically a multivariate linear regression method allowing the identification of a sequence of pairs of patterns in two multivariate data sets, to then construct a set of transformed variables by projecting the original data onto these patterns. Correlations between the pairs of canonical variates, which are the transformed variables generated from truncated empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) or principal components (PC) of anomalies of predictor and predictand data, are called canonical correlations. Linear regression between predictand-predictor canonical variates is used for the forecast. Finally, the predicted values are recovered by EOF synthesis and reconstructed from the predictand means and standard deviations. More details of CCA method can be found in Wilks (2020).The CCA-based calibration has been carried out separately for ensemble mean of each GCM prior to producing multi-model ensembles. The full procedure consists of the following sequential steps:• At the outset, observed rainfall was transformed to Gaussian by fitting a Gamma distribution. From estimates of the shape and scale parameters, the mean and variance of the corresponding Gaussian distribution are given in closed form. • As pre-orthogonalisation, CCA requires truncation of the EOF or PC expansions of the GCM (the predictor) and on the corresponding observations (the predictand). To avoid overfitting due to small sample size to train CCA, we have pre-selected five PCs for GCM and observation. The total variance explained by 5 PC is 92% for observation and for GCMs it is on average 85% (as there are different GCMs).• In CCA, the predictor domain is usually designed to be larger than the predictand domain, so that relevant features outside of the predictand domain can be used for better model calibration (Barnston & Tippett, 2017). Therefore, the spatial domains for the GCM predictor fields were taken to be 15 N-35 N, 80 E-100 E, and all the ENACTS-BMD grid points within Bangladesh (Figure 3) were considered as our predictand (Figure 3). • The CCA model was trained using a leave-5-out crossvalidation in the 37 years of dataset  in which 5 consecutive years are retained from both the pre-EOF and the CCA training sample from GCM and observation, and the middle year of the 5 is predicted.The years withheld progress from the earliest 5 to the latest 5 in which the first and the last years are also predicted so that each year has a cross-validated prediction. • Finally, the cross-validated series for the predictand variable is generated for 37 years and then validated against the observed rainfall data using skill scores mentioned in the next section.Previous works have shown that the use of multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches improves the forecast skills from individual GCM (Acharya, Kar, et al., 2011;Acharya et al., 2014;Kar et al., 2012;Krishnamurti et al., 2009). In general, an MME can be generated by combining equally weighted ensemble members or weighted according to their prior performance (Acharya, Kar, et al., 2011;Kar et al., 2012;Wang et al., 2019;Weigel et al., 2008;Weigel et al., 2010). Studies shown that performance-based weighting does not bring significant differences compared to the equal weighting to make MME based on calibrated GCMs (Wang et al., 2019;Weigel et al., 2008). In this work, equally weighted calibrated GCMs were used to generate the MME following Acharya et al. (2021).To examine the skill of uncalibrated, calibrated GCM and MME forecasts, two commonly used forecast verification metrics, that is, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which corresponds to the average squared difference between the forecast and observation pairs, and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, which is the Pearson's product-moment correlation on the ranked values for each variable. In Spearman's rank correlation, a monotonic relationship between two variables is an important underlying assumption and is less restrictive than that of a linear relationship, which must be met by Pearson's correlation. We also employed the 'generalised discrimination score', also known as 'two alternative forced-choice score' (2AFC score; Mason & Weigel, 2009). The 2AFC score measures the proportion or probability of a correct decision of all available pairs of observations of a differing category whose forecasts are discriminated in the correct direction. The score ranges between 0% and 100% while any value higher than 50% implies that the forecast is able to discriminate beyond random guessing. These verification measures are used in this study as they are recommended by WMO standardised verification system for long-range forecasts for skill assessment (WMO, 2018).Before assessing the skill of the CMME-based prediction, the performance of each individual GCM was analysed.A Taylor diagram (Taylor, 2001) summarising the country-averaged performance of total JJAS rainfall predicted by each GCM is displayed in Figure 4a. Each of the models does not perform well in terms of correlation with the observations, which varies between −0.3 and close to zero. Observed standard deviations are largely underestimated by the GCMs, which range from around 50 mm to 100 mm, with root mean square differences between 230 and 300 mm. In general, these models performed poorly in reproducing the observed variability in JJAS rainfall over Bangladesh. This performance is in agreement with a recent study by Kelley et al. (2020), where the skill of NMME models were examined in the context of sub-seasonal metrics prediction, and which described low-to-modest skill in predicting seasonal rainfall in Bangladesh. These differences may be related to the model's coarser spatial resolution (1 × 1 grid) compared to higher resolution observed data (0.05 × 0.05 grid). Although largescale anomalies can be predicted at such coarse resolution, details on rainfall heterogeneity over Bangladesh could not be resolved, which suggests that the downscaling of GCM outputs can be highly important. A possible hypothesis for this poor performance by GCMs that has been described as driving bias in GCMs forecasting is the oversensitivity of GCMs to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-rainfall teleconnections (Acharya, Kar, et al., 2011;Pillai et al., 2018;Singh et al., 2019). To investigate this possibility, Pearson's correlation coefficients between areaaveraged seasonal total rainfall over Bangladesh and global sea surface temperature (SST) have been computed for observed and predicted rain and SSTs in each model (Figure 5). In observation, the ENSO-rainfall teleconnection is found to be positive although it is not statistically significant. Rahman et al. (2013b) found the similar positive ENSO-rainfall teleconnection using observations from 1985 to 2008. In contrast, the ENSO-rainfall teleconnections in most of the GCMs indicate a strongly negative relationship, indicating that GCMs are unable to reproduce the observed teleconnections satisfactorily, even of an opposite sign. Although the CCSM4 model showed the similar signal (positively correlated) of teleconnection pattern as observed teleconnection pattern, the magnitude of correlation is highly positive and statistically significant. Previous studies evaluating NMME models for Indian monsoon also found that the ENSO-rainfall teleconnections in the GCMs are stronger than in the observation which is a potential reason for GCM's poor performances to simulate monsoon rainfall (Pillai et al., 2018;Singh et al., 2019). Additionally, studies also shown that the seasonal prediction of northeastern Indian region including Bangladesh is very challenging due its positive ENSO (out-of-phase) teleconnection whereas the major part of Indian subcontinent has a negative relationship with ENSO (Choudhury et al., 2019;Saha et al., 2019). However, most of the GCM's cannot distinguish the out-of-phase relationship and having negative teleconnection with ENSO for the monsoon over entire Indian subcontinent. Other hypotheses of poor predictability by GCM can be drawn from the potential predictability (PP) analysis. Although there is a myriad of possible ways to estimate PP, we consider signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to evaluate the predictive power of the models where the individual ensemble members from each of the models are taken into consideration (Figure 6). The SNR is used in several studies for the quantification of the predictive power of GCMs (Attada et al., 2022;Kang et al., 2004;Nair et al., 2013;Singh et al., 2012) for the Indian summer monsoon season. The SNR is defined as the ratio of external and internal variability where the external component is obtained as the variance of the ensemble mean and the internal component can be evaluated as the variance of noise (deviation of members from the ensemble mean). This implies that the larger the SNR, the better the predictive power. It can be noticed from Figure 6 that the except for the NASA-GEOSS2S, most of the GCMs (CanSIPSv2, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and NCEP-CFSv2) has SNR within 0-0.2 range which represents a very weak predictability (external variance is 0%-4%). These lower SNR values explain the predictability limit for each GCM. This inability underscores the importance of calibration methods to partially or wholly remove systematic biases before computing a multi-model ensemble-based forecast. As described in Section 3.1, CCA-based calibration is useful in this regard as it projects the GCM rainfall onto the observed spatio-temporal patterns.The Taylor diagram of calibrated GCMs of Figure 4b shows that after calibration the root mean square differences range from 200 to 230 mm, representing an improvement over the uncalibrated GCMs. Moreover, it is also noticed the correlation also improved after calibration. For instance, the highly negative correlations between observations and models such as NASA-GEOSS2S and GFDL-CM2p1-aer04 become positively correlated after calibration. To examine the performance of the CCA-based calibration method at grid point scale, RMSE, Spearman's correlation coefficients and 2AFC scores are computed before and after calibration for each NMME model. For uncalibrated models, we interpolated GCMs to the ENACTS-BMD's resolution for a fair comparison as CCA produced the same resolution products as ENACTS-BMD. As similar results are found for all NMME models, we selected GFDL-CM2p5-aer04, NASA-GEOSS2S and NCEP-CFSv2 models for illustrative purposes. The north-eastern and south-eastern portions of Bangladesh exhibit the highest RMSE, which correspond to the rainiest areas of the country (Figure 7). Notably, the calibration reduces the RMSE, with values below 200 mm over most of the country, except for rainier regions where RMSE is around 300 mm for most models. Calibrated models show higher skill in terms of correlation for most of the country area (Figure 8). The correlation coefficients of GFDL-CM2p5-aer04 and NASA-GEOSS2S before calibration are mostly negative, but in general, improved after calibration, except in south-eastern Bangladesh. Over southern and eastern parts of the country, NCEP-CFSv2 correlations turn from negative to positive. Also, positive correlations in the north are similar before and after calibration. For all models, the 2AFC score also improved: areas where 2AFC was less than 50% for uncalibrated model outputs became higher than 50% after calibration (Figure 9). Moreover, the spatial pattern of improvement is similar for 2AFC scores and Spearman's correlation coefficients.In general, the CCA-based calibration improves the forecast skill of uncalibrated models. Moreover, when RMSE is used as the verification metric, CCA calibration appears to improve the forecasting skill strongly, but correlation or 2AFC score does not consistently improve in every case, especially where the models show poor skill in the uncalibrated version, such as the case of NASA-GEOSS2S, which can be explained by the limited sample data to train the CCA.To assess the performance of CMME, its skill is compared with uncalibrated MME, namely, UMME (averaging uncalibrated individual model) and presented in Figure 10. The skill of the UMME can be used as a benchmark. In general, CMME outperformed UMME in all skill scores. The RMSE is much lower in CMME, especially in north and south-eastern Bangladesh. Considering Spearman's correlation coefficient, UMME shows positive values only over a small area in the northern and drier areas of Bangladesh, whereas CMME shows widespread positive values except over a small area in the more mountainous southeastern part of the country where the correlations are close to zero or slightly negative. In addition, CMME Spearman's correlation coefficients are higher compared to most calibrated individual models. In terms of the 2AFC score, Figure 9c shows that values higher than 50% are dominant in CMME, except for the same region over the southeast. These results suggest an overall improvement of skill in BSMR prediction when CMME is used; however, high within-country differences are also observed, which can be associated with the complex local-scale precipitation mechanisms and the high spatial variability in climatological rainfall in Bangladesh.This study aimed to develop an improved seasonal forecast system based on calibrated multi-model ensemble for the prediction of BSMR. For this purpose, we developed a hybrid dynamical-statistical technique using state-of-the-art GCMs from the NMME project. The individual GCM's seasonal predictions have been calibrated using a CCA approach to correct large systematic biases. These calibrated individual model predictions were then combined with equal weighting to obtain the final CMME forecast. Although similar multi-model prediction approaches have been used extensively, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that it has been used to produce seasonal forecasts of the BSMR. Since October 2019, each month this CMME-based forecast is prepared in real-time by the BMD for the next season. Therefore, from an operational perspective, the potential benefits of such a forecasting system need to be illustrated and documented in terms of the gain in quality of forecasts in realtime. Although this study only focuses on the skill of this forecast system for the summer monsoon season as the primary period of precipitation in Bangladesh, additional research should also document the predictability of preand post-monsoon precipitation, as well the applicability of our predictions for practical climate services in Bangladesh.In conclusion, we found that although GCMs provide a solid non-linear approach to alternative statistical modelling to predict the BSMR, the calibration of models is necessary to generate operational forecasts given the strong model biases over Bangladesh. The biased performance of GCMs may be partly related to the model's coarse spatial resolution, their over-sensitivity to SSTrainfall teleconnections and lower signal-to-noise ratio which explains the predictability limit. Our results strongly indicate that CCA-based calibration can generate significant improvements that reduce the magnitude of systematic errors (RMSE) compared to individual uncalibrated models. Calibration also appears to improve Spearman's correlation coefficients and 2AFC scores over most of Bangladesh, exempting a few locations in the north-and south-east of the country. In conclusion, our analysis demonstrates that the skill of CMME is much better than the UMME and in comparison, to individual calibrated models, especially in the northern part of the country. However, due to limited sample data to train the CCA (32 years; using leave-5-out cross-validation in 37 years of hindcast data), further room for skill improvement which would be the subject of future research and will require a large sample to achieve increased robustness.Foundation (BMGF) under the thrid phase of the Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (https://csisa.org), and the One CGIAR Regional Integrative initiative Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia (TAFSSA; https:// www.cgiar.org/initiative/transforming-agrifood-systems-insouth-asia-tafssa/). The results of this research do not necessarily reflect the views of BMGF, CCAFS, USAID or the United States Government. We acknowledge the help of CPC, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating, and maintaining the NMME archive. We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions that helped to improve the original version of the manuscript. ORCID Nachiketa Acharya https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3010-2158 Md. Bazlur Rashid https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1789-6379","tokenCount":"4376"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"3fb687c31374ac006c612f0889c543d0","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/dc1cc25b-3de8-4fed-9a7a-33c15e387ae6/retrieve","id":"-960800743"},"keywords":["Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP)","breeding","phylogeny","flow cytometry","sweet potato"],"sieverID":"453657db-8b7c-4d0b-864b-1f8687348295","pagecount":"7","content":"Interspecific hybridization can be used to broaden the genetic base, generate novel species, postulate genetic relationships, and to introgress elite alien genes. However, interspecific hybridizations using wild parents outside the Ipomoea section Batatas are very difficult and have not been much studied. We used an improved hybridization technology to generate three novel interspecific hybrids by crossing Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam. × I. hederacea Jacq., I. batatas (L.) Lam. × I. muricata (L.) Jacq., and I. batatas (L.) Lam. × I. lonchophylla J.M. Black. The ploidy level of the interspecific hybrids was determined by flow cytometry. The cross, I. batatas × I. hederacea, yielded the first artificial pentaploid Ipomoea hybrid ever. The other two hybrids, I. batatas × I. hederacea and I. batatas × I. muricata were tetraploid. The first two hybrids showed normal storage roots, a significant improvement in the storage roots of currently existing interspecific Ipomoea hybrids. AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) molecular markers were used to explore the genetic relationship of these three novel interspecific hybrids with three other natural diploid, tetraploid, and hexaploid species of the Ipomoea section Batatas. Cluster analysis of AFLP bands showed that these three new interspecific hybrids were closely related to cultivated sweet potato (I. batatas/L./Lam.), which indicated that these novel hybrids can be used as an interspecific bridge to transfer alien genes from wild to cultivated species.Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas /L./ Lam.) is one of the most important food and vegetable crops in the world, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeastern Asia, and the Pacific Islands. It represents the only domesticated species of the genus Ipomoea, which contains 600-700 different species (Austin & Huaman 1996). In this genus, 13 wild species composed of Ipomoea section Batatas (Austin 1978;Mcdonald & Austin 1990;Austin & Huaman 1996). Up to date, most of the wild species parents used for interspecific hybridization with sweet potato have belonged to this section.Actually, interspecific hybridization between sweet potato and its related wild species has been greatly limited, mainly due to cross-incompatibility and an interspecific reproductive barrier (Martin 1970;Shiotani et al. 1990;Kobayashi et al. 1994). Hybridization between I. batatas and I. trichocarpa Ell. or I. gracilis R. Br. resulted in the initiation of embryo development when I. trichocarpa was the female parent; however, the seeds produced through this cross were not viable (Wedderburn 1967). Orjeda et al. (1991) made over 28 000 pollinations between five I. batatas (6x) and forty-one I. trifida (Kunth) G. Don (2x) accessions to obtain 4x interspecific hybrids; their results indicated that most of the 4x progenies did not produce any storage roots or had very poor yields. Freyre et al. (1991) used the I. trifida synthetic hexaploids and triploids with 2n pollen to estimate their fertility and crossability with sweet potato. And the lower percentage of seed germination in the above-mentioned hybrids indicated the existence of an interspecific barrier. Kobayashi et al. (1994) used ovule culture to obtain two interspecific hybridization combinations from I. triloba L. × I. trifida and (I. triloba × I. lacunosa L.) × I. batatas (4x). Somatic cell hybridization was also exploited to produce hybrids whose wild parents were among the following species: I. triloba (Yang et al. 2009), I. lacunosa (Liu et al. 1998;Zhang et al. 2002), and I. cairica (L.) Sweet (Guo et al. 2006). We recently reported the reproduction and characterization of two novel interspecific hybrids from I. batatas × I. grandifolia and I. batatas × I. purpurea using controlled pollination (Cao et al. 2009a).In general, most of the interspecific hybridizations reported above employed a limited number of wild parents and most of those belonged to Ipomoea section Batatas. Furthermore, most of the interspecific hybrids obtained seldom produced storage roots or resulted in poor quality or yield. However, there is a large number of wild species in the genus Ipomoea having elite biotic and abiotic stress resistance and good quality traits, which remain to be explored and utilized.In the present study, three new interspecific hybrids were synthesized whose wild parents were beyond the Ipomoea section Batatas. Ploidy levels of these hybrids, genetic variations and molecular phylogenetic relationships were investigated. Furthermore, AFLP was used to explore the correlation between the number of amplified DNA bands and the ploidy level.Plant material. Xushu 18 (I. batatas /L./ Lam., 2n = 6x = 90), a famous and widely grown sweet potato cultivar in China, was chosen as the female parent (Table 1). Plants of Xushu 18 were pollinated with pollen from three wild species, I. hederacea Jacq. (2n = 2x = 30, PI618970), I. muricata (L.) Jacq (2n = 2x = 30, PI279698) and I. lonchophylla J. M. Black (2n = 2x = 30, Grif11879), which are not members of Ipomoea section Batatas and genetically distant from Xushu18. Among the three wild species, I. hederacea and I. muricata are drought tolerant (Q.H. Cao, personal communication), and I. lonchophylla is resistant to the stem nematode disease (Cao et al. 2009b). A diploid I. trifida, an old natural tetraploid interspecific hybrid I. tabascana J.A. McDonald & D.F. Austin (Srisuwan et al. 2006), and a hexaploid cultivar Xushu18 were selected as controls for both phylogeny and ploidy studies. All the above wild species were introduced from the sweet potato program of Louisiana State University, USA.Interspecific cross. As previously described (Cao et al. 2009a), we adjusted the plant hormone concentrations from 100 mg/l GA3 + 50 mg/l 6-BA to 120 mg/l GA3 + 60 mg/l 6-BA and applied the solution to the stalks of the pollinated flowers. The treatment was conducted for ten consecutive days to obtain better fruits and seed set.Flow cytometry analysis and chromosome counting. Relative fluorescence intensity of PI (Propidium Iodide)-stained nuclei was analysed using a flow cytometer (FACSCalibur, BD Company, San Diego, USA) according to the method of Doležel et al. (1989). For ploidy analysis, the scale was calibrated using the young leaf samples of I. trifida as the diploid reference (standard). The flow cytometer was adjusted so that the peak representing the G1 nuclei of I. trifida was set at channel 50. Other samples were characterized by the relative positions of their G1 peaks. Data were analysed using the ModFit LD software, referred to the ModFit LT user guide.Chromosome counting was done on the three newly obtained hybrids according to the procedure described by Cao et al. (2009a).Genomic DNA isolation and AFLP analysis. Genomic DNA was extracted from frozen and dried leaves of plants grown in the field. The leaf tissue was ground to a fine powder and DNA was extracted using the improved CTAB method (Huang & Sun 2000). The AFLP analysis was performed as described by Vos et al. (1995). DNA double-digestion was carried out using the enzyme combination of EcoRI/ MseI. After ligation with oligonucleotide adapters, a pre-selective amplification was carried out with EcoRI+A and MseI+C primers, and PCR products were then diluted 15-fold with water and used as template for selective amplifications using both EcoRI+3 and MseI+3 primers. In total 21 primerpair combinations were chosen to produce a high number of unambiguous polymorphisms in sets of the 10 sweet potato genotypes tested. PCR products were separated using electrophoresis on a 6% polyacrylamide gel in TBE (Tris-Boric acid-EDTA) buffer for about 1.5 h. Data analysis. For each of the primer-pair combinations, the number of polymorphic and monomorphic fragments was counted across all six species with different ploidy levels. Only clearly readable bands with strong intensity were scored manually and included in the binary data matrix (i.e. 1 and 0 denoting the presence and absence of a band, respectively).The percentage of genetic similarity index between samples was calculated and derived according to the method of Nei and Li (1979). Phylogenetic analysis was performed using the NTSYS pc. 2.11a software and the phylogenetic tree was produced from the AFLP data matrices using the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic averages (UPGMA). To evaluate the strength of the resulting clades, the data were analysed by the bootstrap method of Felsenstein (1986). One hundred bootstrap samples were generated by random resampling of the data set (Felsenstein 1985) and were separately subjected to Wagner parsimony analysis.Xushu18 (maternal parent) was pollinated with pollen from 108, 105, and 98 flowers of three wild species, I. hederacea, I. muricata and I. lonchophylla, respectively. To overcome the ovary development barrier, the combination of different plant growth hormones (as described in the methodology) was applied to the stalk of flowers. These crosses generated 3, 2, and 2  2). Due to the poor germination rates and weak growth of the seedlings, only one seedling from each cross combination was able to grow into an adult plant. The hybrid plants H 67-1 (I. batatas × I. hederacea) and H 10 (I. batatas × I. muricata) showed larger storage roots (Figure 1) than our previous interspecific hybrids (Cao et al. 2009a). The larger storage roots in this cross showed a greater similarity to their maternal parent Xushu18 and it is possible to benefit from the future preservation and propagation of these accessions. The hybrid plant H 14-1 (I. batatas × I. lonchophylla) set smaller storage roots (Figure 1), and its vine was twining and spreading.The FC analysis of PI-stained nuclei showed a dominant peak corresponding to the G1 nuclei of the materials being measured (Figure 2). The dominant peak reflected the ploidy level of each sample. The G1 peak of the reference diploid I. trifida was approximately at channel 50. The G1 peaks of the newly obtained interspecific hybrids H 67-1 (I. batatas × I. hederacea), H 10 (I. batatas ×I. muricata), and H 14-1 (I. batatas × I. lonchophylla) were at channels 125, 100, and 100, respectively, suggesting that H 67-1 was pentaploid while H 10 , H 14-1 were tetraploid. Most histograms revealed a low coefficient of variation (less than 5%) indicating the high reliability of these results. The root tip cells of the three newly obtained interspecific hybrids were squashed for chromosome counting. We found that the hybrid H 67-1 carried ∼75 chromosomes and both H 10 and H 14-1 contained ∼60 chromosomes (Table 2). These results were consistent with the results from our flow cytometer (FC) analysis.In order to determine the phylogenetic relationship of these three hybrids with sweet potato and investigate the DNA band variations among different ploidy materials, a diploid I. trifida, tetraploid I. tabascana, and a sweet potato cultivar in Ipo-  moea section Batatas were selected as controls for the diploid, tetraploid, and hexaploid, respectively. Through genetic similarity calculation by NTSYSpc 2.11a, differences at the DNA level among different species were determined by comparing the genetic similarity indexes for a total of 21 pairwise comparisons (Table 3). The genetic similarity indexes among all pairs of six Ipomoea species varied from 0.54 (between I. trifida and Xushu18) to 0.90 (between H 10 and H 67-1 ), thus providing the evidence that all the six Ipomoea species were closely related.The similarity matrix obtained after multivariate analysis using Nei and Li's (1979) coefficient index is shown in Table 3. These similarity indexes were used to generate a dendrogram (Figure 3) by UPGMA analysis in order to determine the grouping of different ploidy materials. From Figure 3, I. trifida was   thought to be the most distant from the other five Ipomoea species. The natural interspecific hybrid I. tabascana was the second most distant in the phylogenetic tree. The newly obtained hybrids H 67-1 and H 10 were clustered into one group at an index of 0.90, which indicated that the hybrids H 67-1 and H 10 were the closest genetically. These two hybrids, together with I. batatas (Xushu18), were clustered into one group at an index of 0.82. The artificial tetraploid H 14-1 was clustered into a group with the above three accessions at an index of 0.78. Six different Ipomoea species were genotyped with 21 AFLP primer-pair combinations, which had been tested to be highly polymorphic at the International Potato Centre (CIP). Most of the AFLP bands ranged from 50 to 400 bp (Figure 4). A total of 1862 bands were scored. Among them, 558 bands (30.0%) were monomorphic in six test materials, whereas 1304 bands (70.0%) were polymorphic. For each primer pair, an average of 88 total bands and 62 polymorphic bands were detected. For each accession, the number of total bands increased following the increase in ploidy levels. For example, the total amplified DNA bands of diploid I. trifida were 1034, those of tetraploid I. tabascana, H 10 , H 14-1 and pentaploid H 67-1 were 1192, 1330, 1315, and 1370, respectively. The hexaploid I. batatas had 1452 bands. The amplification results (Figure 4) showed three main phenomena: (1) some bands were absent in the diploid I. trifida while they were present in the other polyploidy materials; (2) some special bands were only present in the diploid and absent in polyploidy materials; (3) some bands were amplified only in the interspecific hybrids and their maternal parent Xushu18.Among the three novel synthetic interspecific hybrids, only H 67-1 , which was from a cross between hexaploid I. batatas and diploid I. hederacea, was identified as a pentaploid. It was not the expected tetraploid, indicating that 2n gametes might have occurred in a male wild paternal species, which needs to be confirmed in the future. The other two interspecific hybrids were likely to be produced from normal meiosis of their respective parents.According to the results of AFLP scores and the cluster analysis, all of the three newly synthetic interspecific hybrids have a closer relationship with sweet potato than with I. trifida and I. tabascana. These results suggest that the wild parents of the three novel hybrids have a close relationship with the cultivated species to some extent. Further AFLP experiments are required to determine the genetic distance between these wild species and sweet potato. The genome of the novel synthesized interspecific hybrid was found to contain three sets of chromosomes from I. batatas (Xushu18) and one or two sets from the wild parental species. Theoretically, DNA from Xushu18 accounts for three quarters (like in H 10 , H 14-1 ) or three fifths (like in H 67-1 ) of the total genomes of these hybrids. This would partially explain why the features of the three new hybrids were closer to those of the sweet potato cultivar Xushu18. These materials are useful in studying the effect of gene dosage and ploidy level variations.The correlation between ploidy levels and amplified DNA band numbers has been studied in various species (Chen et al. 2004;Liu et al. 2004;Ma et al. 2010); however, it has been rarely studied in Ipomoea. Our results revealed some interesting facts. The number of amplified AFLP bands increased following the increase in ploidy level. The amplified AFLP bands in the novel synthesized tetraploid interspecific hybrids were similar in number, while the old hybrid I. tabascana had fewer bands, indicating that some DNA bands might have been lost during speciation. The sweet potato cultivar Xushu18 was found to have the highest number of amplified DNA bands. However, considering its hexaploid level, the average bands per chromosome set of sweet potato would be the lowest as compared to those of the diploid wild species and the tetraploid hybrids. These results can be partly explained by the fact that polyploidization is usually followed by a genome-wide loss of some of the redundant genomic material (Adams & Wendel 2005). Differential gene loss (i.e. loss of some duplicates but not others) following polyploidization is responsible for much of the deviation in co-linearity among closely related plants, such as cereals (Paterson et al. 2003).","tokenCount":"2578"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"948b18cb7ea61690d664f0caa59c5c4c","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/2283fe75-f376-4682-8bdf-36e4a754af01/retrieve","id":"-996066186"},"keywords":["Climate change","semi-arid areas","gridded climate data"],"sieverID":"11da07c3-f13b-47b6-af70-72cc07045fc0","pagecount":"8","content":"Climate change is one of the major challenges in 21 st century faced by Agriculture in India, more so in the Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT) of the country. In recent years, natural and anthropogenic factors have impacted climate variability and contributed to a large extent to climate change. Based on one degree gridded data of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for 34 years , climatic water balances are computed for 351 pixels in India and used for classifying in to six climate types following Thornthwaite's moisture regime classification and areas falling under different climatic zones in India are delineated. Considerable changes in the country's climate area observed between the two periods; 1971-90 and 1991-2004. Increased semi-arid area by 8.45 M ha in five states viz., Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Punjab, and decreased semi-arid area by 5 M ha in eleven states, contributed to overall increase in SAT area of 3.45 M ha in the country.Overall, there has been a net reduction of 10.71 M ha in the dry sub-humid area in the country. Results indicated that dryness and wetness are increasing in different parts of the country in the place of moderate climates existing earlier in t hese regions. ICRISAT's Hypothesis of Hope through Integrated Genetic and Natural Resources Management (IGNRM) using climate ready crops and Integrated Watershed Management could be a potential adaptatio n strategy by bridging the yield gaps for developing climate resilient agriculture in the country.It is now recognized that global warming, part of the climate change phenomenon, is due to sharp increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxides (N 2 O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) beyond their natural levels. Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) brought out a report (INCCA, 2010) recording the GHG emission estimates in India, becoming the first \"non-Annex I\" (i.e., developing) country to publish such updated numbers. In 2007, India ranked 5th in aggregate GHG emissions in the world, behind USA, China, EU and Russia. Interestingly, the emissions of USA and China were almost 4 times that of India in 2007. It is also noteworthy that due to the efforts and policies that were proactively put in place, the emissions intensity of India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by more than 30% during the period 1994-2007. India announced its plan to further reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25% between 2005 and 2020, even as the country pursues the path of inclusive growth (INCCA, 2010).Climate change is an important driver affecting livelihoods, particularly in developing countries like India, with large agrarian-based livelihoods exist. In India, climate change could exacerbate existing stress on ecological, natural resources and socioeconomic systems due to growing population, urbanization, industrialization and economic development.Measurement of atmospheric turbidity (attenuation of incoming solar radiation) has shown a steady increase as a result of anthropogenic activities (DST, 2008). Indian annual mean (average of maximum and minimum), maximum and minimum temperatures showed significant warming trends of 0.51, 0.72 and 0.27°C 100 yr -1 , respectively, during the period 1901-2007 (Kothawale et al., 2010). However, accelerated warming was observed in the period 1971-2007, mainly due to intense warming in the recent decade 1998-2007. Mean annual temperature of India in 2010 was +0.93°C above the 1961-1990 average and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared that 2010 was the warmest year on record since 1901 (IMD, 2010). Mean temperature in the pre-monsoon season (March-May) was 1.8°C above normal during the year 2010.At the country level, no long-term trend in southwest monsoon rainfall was observed; although an increasing trend in intense rainfall events are reported. Goswami et al., (2006) analysed gridded rainfall data for the period 1951-2000 and found significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rainfall events, and a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. They concluded that a substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rainfall is expected over central India in the future. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past 15 years were also reported by Samra et al. (2003 and2006). Chattopadhyay and Hulme (1997) reported that potential evapotranspiration has decreased over the whole country in the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons and the decreasing trend is up to a maximum of about 0.3 mm day -1 decade -1 over west-central India.Trends in annual reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) at Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh indicated a reduction of about 200 mm from 1850 mm to 1650 mm during the 35-year period 1975-2009(Rao and Wani, 2011). At Patancheru, contribution of energy balance term to the total ET 0 has shown an increasing trend while aerodynamic term has a decreasing trend. Wind speed has shown a strong negative trend leading to the dramatic fall of the aerodynamic term and consequently the ET 0 . Rate of reduction in evapotranspiration demand was about 10% for kharif (Jun-Oct) and about 14% for rabi (Nov-Feb).It is evident from the various studies that climate change in India is real and it is one of the major challenges faced by Indian Agriculture, more so in the semi-arid tropics (SAT) of the country. India ranks first among the countries that practice rainfed agriculture in terms of both extent and value of production. The rainfed agro-ecologies cover about 60 per cent of the net sown area of 141 million ha and are widely distributed in the country (DOAC, 2011).Rainfed agriculture is practiced under a wide variety of soil types, agro-climatic and rainfall conditions. Rainfed agriculture supports nearly 40% of India's estimated population of 1.21 billion in 2011 (Sharma, 2011). Even after achieving the full irrigation potential, nearly 50% of the net cultivated area may remain dependent on rainfall. Reduction in yields due to climate change is likely to be more prominent in rainfed agriculture and under limited water availability.Thus, there is a need to review the areas falling under the different climate zones in India to understand the changing rainfall and temperature patterns over the last few decades. Accordingly, a study was carried out by ICRISAT to assess the changes in areas under different climates in India.Based on the daily rainfall data of 1803 stations, and following the interpolation method proposed by Shepard (1968), a high resolution (1° x 1° Lat/Long) gridded daily rainfall data set was developed by the IMD (Rajeevan etal., 2005). A daily gridded temperature data set for the Indian region with a similar resolution was also developed by IMD using temperature data of 395 quality controlled stations (Srivastava etal., 2009). These data sets were procured from the IMD, and daily gridded climate data (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall) of 351 pixels in India (Fig. 1) for 34 years  was retrieved.The IMD daily gridded data originally was in binary format with 1120 pixels for each day in the geographical window of 6.5 to 37.5 °N latitude and from 66.5 to 100.5° E longitude for each calendar year. Binary data converted in to text format for each year; data for 351 pixels falling inside the Indian country boundary were picked out and correct latitude and longitude values assigned. These 34 yearly files were converted in to 351 pixel-wise files. It was observed that there were missing values in all the parameters; majority of them are in the NE India. Some are in the border regions of Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan and Gujarat. These gaps were either filled with neighbouring pixel values or normal values. After quality checking databases were developed for use in water balance computations and climate change analysis.Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) or Reference Crop Evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) was estimated following the method of Hargreaves andSamani (1982 and1985). The simplified equation is ET 0 = 0.0135 (KT) (Ra) (TD) 1/2 (TC+17.8)Where TD = Maximum daily temperature minus minimum daily temperature (ºC) for weekly or monthly periods and TC is the average daily temperature (ºC); Ra = Extra-PAPER 2 Climate classification results of 351 pixels were converted to points and re-interpolated using ArcGIS 10.0 since a 1° x 1° pixel is coarse and patchy to show the climate zones clearly. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method is used to interpolate the point data with an exponent of distance as 2 and the search radius fixed to 30 minutes and the number of points around the estimated value limited to 6. This was achieved after exploring different combinations of input variables which can be changed within the set limits. The resolution of the output grid is fixed at approximately 5 km. This method was used because IDW is an exact interpolator and estimated values do not cross the range of values in the total dataset. The area under each climate is the number of pixels multiplied by the area of each pixel which is fixed at 5 km. Minor aberrations in the area estimated and the area by conventional method was adjusted to remove ambiguity and state-wise areas under each climate were quantified for both periods.Considerable changes in climates are observed between the two periods, 1971-90 and 1991-2004. Salient features (Fig. 2) are increase in the arid areas in Rajasthan (1.53 M ha) and Gujarat (0.98 M ha), and increase in semi-arid areas in Madhya Pradesh (3.82 M ha), Bihar (2.66 M ha) and Uttar Pradesh (1.57 M ha).Total increase in arid area is about 2.63 M ha in three states viz. Rajasthan (1.53 M ha), Gujarat (0.98 M ha) and Andhra Pradesh (0.12 M ha) while total reduction is about 1.03 M ha due to changes in Punjab (0.44 M ha), Karnataka (0.28 M ha), Haryana (0.16 M ha) and Maharashtra (0.15 M ha). For the country as a whole, net change in arid area is 1.60 M ha. Increase in the arid areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat is due to shifting of semi-arid areas in to arid. terrestrial radiation (mm/day); and KT = empirical coefficient. Relative humidity is indirectly present as the difference in maximum and minimum temperature. The temperature difference (TD) is linearly related to relative humidity (Hargreaves and Samani, 1982). Hargreaves (1994) recommended using KT = 0.162 for 'interior' regions and KT = 0.19 for 'coastal' regions. KT value is considered as 0.17 in the present analysis.Soil water-holding capacities for the 351 pixels were estimated based on the soil map of National Bureau of Soil Survey & Land Use Planning (NBSS&LUP, 1985). Pixelwise weekly water balances and climate indices for 34 years were computed based on the revised water budgeting approach of Thronthwaite and Mather (1955). Climates for each year were classified based on the annual moisture index (Table 1) as per classification of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). While assessing climate change, it is an accepted method to find deviations from a base period. As per the WMO guidelines, 30-year continuous data is required to compute climatic normals. Standard periods for climatic normals are 1931-60 and 1961-90. In the present case, gridded data availability was 1971-2004, hence 1971-1990 is considered as the base period or period 1 and 1991-2004 is considered as period 2. Average climates classified into six types for both the periods 1 and 2. ha), Andhra Pradesh (0.24 M ha), Orissa (0.16 M ha), Himachal Pradesh (0.15 M ha), Maharashtra (0.04 M ha), Haryana (0.03 M ha), Kerala (0.02 M ha) and Uttarakhand (0.02 M ha). For the country as a whole, net change in semi-arid area is 3.45 M ha. These changes are mainly due to increased dryness at the expense of dry sub-humid   3 and Table 2.Total increase in dry sub humid area is about 2.51 M ha due to changes in Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka while total reduction is about 13.22 M ha due to changes in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Kerala. Net change in dry sub humid area is 10.71 M ha, some of which shifted towards drier side and some towards wetter side. There is no change in dry subhumid areas in Rajasthan. In the country as a whole, about 4.78 M ha of area has increased in moist sub-humid climate type while about 0.47 M ha area has decreased in per-humid climate.Climate change impacts in India vary both quantitatively and qualitatively by crop, level of agronomic management, region and season (Mall et al., 2006).ICRISAT's research findings showed that Integrated Genetic and Natural Resources Management (IGNRM) through participatory watershed management is the key for improving rural livelihoods in the SAT (Wani et al., 2002(Wani et al., , 2003(Wani et al., and 2011)). Comprehensive Assessment (CA) of rainfed agriculture undertaken by the ICRISAT-led consortium showed vast potential of rainfed agriculture, as large yield gaps exist and current farmers' crop yields are lower by two to five folds of achievable yields (Rockström et al., 2007and 2010, Wani et al., 2003, 2009and 2011). Even under a climate change regime, crop yield gaps can still be significantly narrowed down with improved management practices and using Germplasm adapted for warmer temperatures (Wani et al., 2003, 2009and Cooper et al., 2009). Some of the climate resilient crops are short-duration chickpea cultivars ICC 96029 (Super early), ICCV 2 (Extra-early) and KAK 2 (Early maturing); wilt resistant pigeonpea hybrid (ICPH 2671) with a potential to give 80% higher yields than traditional varieties developed through cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) system; and short-duration groundnut cultivar ICGV 91114 that escapes terminal drought. Fig. 3 : Changes in areas in selected states between 1971-1990 and 1991-2004 PAPER 2Integrated Watershed Management comprises improvement of land and water management, integrated nutrient management including application of micronutrients, improved varieties and integrated pest and disease management; and substantial productivity gains and economic returns by farmers (Wani et al., 2003). The goal of watershed management is to improve livelihood security by mitigating the negative effects of climatic variability while protecting or enhancing the sustainability of the environment and the agricultural resource base. Greater resilience of crop income in Kothapally (Andhra Pradesh) during the drought year 2002 was indeed due to watershed interventions. While the share of crops in household income declined from 44% to 12% in the non-watershed project villages, crop income remained largely unchanged from 36% to 37% in the watershed village (Wani et al., 2009). Agroclimatic analysis coupled with crop-simulation models, and better seasonal and medium duration weather forecasts, help build resilience to climate variability/change in watersheds (Rao et al., 2008).Sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the soil has the potential to achieve the multiple objectives of improving the soil quality and fertility of the semi-arid tropical soils and addressing climate variability/change. Evidence from a long-term experiment at ICRISAT-Patancheru since 1976 demonstrated a virtuous cycle of persistent yield increase under the improved system compared to the traditional system (Wani etal., 2009 andWani andRockström, 2011). More importantly, under the improved system, the 0-120 cm soil profile contained 46.8 t C ha -1 compared to 39.5 t C ha -1 in the traditional management system. Hence, great scope exists for such improved systems for not only maintaining environmental quality but also addressing climate variability / change as a mitigating measure. There is also an urgent need to develop a climate change network for Indian agriculture by adopting a hybrid model of using Information and Communication Technology (ICT) where it is feasible along with traditional communication channels like community radios, TV, mobile telephones and trained human resources at community and village level (Wani et al., 2012). This will go a long way in building the resilience of the community to cope with the impacts of climate change, particularly in rainfed areas.Analysis of the gridded climate data of IMD indicated increase in the arid areas in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, and increase in semi-arid areas in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Punjab. Overall, there has been a net reduction in the dry sub-humid area (10.7 M ha) in the country, of which about 5.1 M ha (47%) shifted towards the drier side and about 5.6 M ha (53%) became wetter. Dryness and wetness are increasing in different parts of the country in the place of moderate climates existing earlier in these regions. Increasing dryness in the arid and semi-arid areas along with increasing rainfall variability is a serious challenge for Indian agriculture. Impacts of climate variability and change could be minimized / coped through bridging the vast (two to three folds) gaps between the yields currently obtained by farmers and achievable potential yields. Evidence exists on feasibility of harnessing the untapped potential of rainfed agriculture through farmer-centric IWM approach by operationalizing the IGNRM. ICRISAT and partners have proposed the \"Hypothesis of Hope\" by developing climate resilient agriculture using climate ready crop cultivars and IWM approach as a powerful approach to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change. There is an urgent need to enhance the awareness about the climate change and new strategies using innovative science-based information and communication tools along with enabling policies and institutional options.","tokenCount":"2845"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"297b53b64951f85ae1e30879e458a4b4","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://repository.cimmyt.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/aface98b-e31a-4eed-9e37-583e8076522d/content","id":"598589027"},"keywords":["predator-prey interaction","biological pest control","insectivorous birds","bat predation on FAW","maize cultivation"],"sieverID":"33eb02ad-dfc8-4276-b333-57c4a77f5cd9","pagecount":"10","content":"The fall armyworm (FAW, Spodoptera frugiperda) is a major crop pest in southern Africa. It threatens the livelihoods and food security of smallholder farmers in the region by negatively impacting maize yield. Although scientific evidence suggests that natural enemy-mediated predation can potentially reduce FAW infestation, the effectiveness of natural enemies such as birds, bats, parasitoids, and generalist predators on FAW is poorly understood. This study reviews existing literature to assess how birds, bats, parasitoids, and generalist predators' control FAW infestation, as well as the role of forest or tree cover in natural enemy mediated pest control of FAW in maize in southern Africa. We then present a case study to examine the role of forest proximity in reducing FAW infestation in maize in Zimbabwe. We conclude that birds, bats, parasitoids, and generalist predators are likely drivers of the reduced success of FAW near forests in southern Africa. While predators influence FAW survival and development, their role is largely undermined by parasitoids, which are more efficient in affecting FAW populations. Birds, bats, parasitoids, and generalist predators play an important role in controlling FAW on farms in heterogenous landscapes with diverse vegetation and near-forest proximity. The findings of our case study from Zimbabwe suggest that the distance to forest had a much higher impact on FAW incidence than maize variety, planting date, or the rate of nitrogen applied. Lack of enough case studies from maize in southern Africa makes it challenging to assess the mechanism and the effectiveness of bird predation on FAW. For this reason, further research is necessary to examine how predation by birds, bats and arthropods and parasitism impacts maize yield. We discuss research barriers, recommend appropriate methods for experimental studies, and suggest possible management options to control FAW in southern Africa.The fall armyworm (FAW, Spodoptera frugiperda), an agricultural pest native to North and South America, has recently become widespread across Africa and Asia (Assefa and Ayalew, 2019;Sharanabasappa et al., 2019;Sisay et al., 2019). Africa is particularly vulnerable to FAW infestation due to the prevalence of diverse host plants and suitable agro-ecological conditions (Day et al., 2017). Although FAW attacks up to 350 plant species in its native range (Montezano et al., 2018), it favors graminaceous crops, especially maize (Baudron et al., 2019). Maize is the most widely grown staple food crop in Africa, covering 37 million hectares (Hruska, 2019), and it provides food and livelihood for about 208 million smallholder farmers in the region (Sisay et al., 2019;Tambo et al., 2019). FAW infestation reduces maize yield up to 53% (Day et al., 2017;Kumela et al., 2019;De Groote et al., 2020) and can cause up to $US13 billion per annum crop losses across Africa (Day et al., 2017). Thus, FAW infestation on maize poses a serious threat to the food security and livelihood of smallholder farmers in Africa (Day et al., 2017).FAW control measures range from handpicking of larvae (Tambo et al., 2019) or applying chemical pesticides (Kumela et al., 2019) to diverse agro-ecological practices such as minimum tillage, intercropping, and diversifying the farm environment (Baudron et al., 2019;Harrison et al., 2019). A wide range of natural enemies, such as birds, bats, parasitoids, and pathogens can also control FAW larva (Capinera, 2000;Molina-Ochoa et al., 2003;Assefa and Ayalew, 2019;Sisay et al., 2019). Moreover, generalist predators such as ground beetles (Carabidae), rove beetles (Staphylinidae), ants (Formicidae), earwigs (Labiduridae), social wasps (Hymenoptera), and spiders (Araneae) are known to attack FAW eggs and larvae (Harrison et al., 2019;Rukundo et al., 2020). Natural enemy-mediated predation can be effective in controlling FAW infestation in maize, reducing FAW pupae up to 73% (Capinera, 2000). Previous studies suggest that insectivorous birds are effective in reducing FAW infestation in fields close to hedgerows (Wyckhuys and O'Neil, 2006). Laboratory trials also show that red-winged black birds (Agelaius phoeniceus) are important control agents, as they preferentially feed on relatively larger and non-parasitized FAW larvae (Jones et al., 2005). Similarly, bats can be particularly effective in controlling adult moths (Maine and Boyles, 2015) as evidenced in Texas where 100 million Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis) feed on up to 4 billion noctuid moths every night (Lee and McCracken, 2005). However, the understanding of the effectiveness of natural enemy mediated predation on FAW and the role of forest or tree cover in reducing FAW infestation through natural predation is still limited.The objective of this study is to first review bat, bird, parasitoid and other generalist predator mediated control of FAW in maize and assess how natural enemy mediated FAW control is influenced by proximity to forest in southern Africa. We then present a case study from Zimbabwe assessing whether proximity to forest reduces FAW infestations in maize fields.For this paper, we followed the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) delineation of southern Africa, which comprises the countries of Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Eswatini Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.The literature reviewed for this study was found using a combination of Google Scholar and the UBC Library Search Collection functions. We searched for combinations of natural enemy mediated pest control by birds, bats, parasitoids, and generalist predators on FAW in its natural range; natural enemy mediated pest control on cash crops in southern Africa, and natural enemy mediated pest control on FAW in southern Africa. Papers were selected based on whether the information pertained to bat, bird, parasitoid, or generalist natural enemy mediated pest control either directly on FAW or on other crop pests in southern Africa, on maize crops in the native range of FAW, or cash crops in areas with similar climates to southern Africa. Considering that FAW was only recently introduced to Africa, there were few papers available that examined natural enemy mediated pest control of FAW in Africa. For this reason, we relied on studies that examine natural enemy mediated control on fields near forests elsewhere in the world to examine the likelihood of different mechanisms of pest control occurring in FAW infestations in southern Africa. In addition, we selected papers based on whether the methodology used could be useful for further examining FAW natural enemy mediated pest control in southern Arica, even if the study location in some of the reviewed papers is not in southern Africa. Key words used in the literature search were: natural enemy mediated pest control, FAW in southern Africa, bird predation on crop pests, bat predation on crop pests, parasitoids and FAW; in addition, location-based search terms were used, such as FAW in native range, or FAW in southern Africa.The case study was conducted in Chipinge District in Zimbabwe, where the presence of FAW is observed since early 2017. The district is in south-eastern Zimbabwe at an average altitude of 1,134 m above sea level. The district is characterized by a population density of approximately 33 inhabitants per km 2 , a mean annual rainfall of 1,097 mm (90 years average), a mean annual temperature of 28 • C (10 years average). The analysis was conducted at the peak of the rainy season, and thus water sources (mainly in the form of stagnant water) were available throughout the landscape. The district has sandy soils with black and red clays as the major soil types. Maize, cotton, and sorghum are the major crops and cattle, goats, pigs, and chicken as the major livestock species (Baudron et al., 2019).We surveyed a total of 278 maize fields in Ward 16, Ward 18, and Ward 20 in Chipinge district between the 18th and the 22nd of February 2019 (Figure 1). The manager of each field was interviewed regarding the management of the plot (variety, planting date, fertilization, etc.) and the plot was then scouted for FAW damage. Following this survey, five groups of ten plants were selected following a \"W sampling\" and the number of plants in each sampling point displaying leaf damage due to FAW was recorded as well as the severity of this damage using a scale ranging from 1 to 9. A GPS point of the center of the plot was also recorded. All data (included GPS point) was recorded with Galaxy Tab A and Galaxy J5 using the application \"CommCare\". 1 Sentinel-2 Level-2A images for 24th January 2019 (8.44% cloud cover in the area) and 28th February (0% cloud cover) were acquired and an object-based land cover classification was performed (Champagne, 2019). Forest patches of at least 0.5 ha were identified and the distance between the center of each field and the closest forest patch of at least 0.5 ha was calculated. The distance of the sampled maize fields to the identified forest patches ranged from 0 to 4193.12 m. The spatial analysis focused only on forest patches vs. other land covers that included both crops and fallows. Grasses were available throughout the landscape. No negative control group was used in this study.The variability of the proportion of plants with leaf damage due to FAW in each sampling point (N = 1,668) was analyzed using generalized linear models with a logit distribution. Variables included in the model were \"Ward\" (Ward 16, Ward 18, or Ward 20), elevation (m.a.s.l.), planting date (in number of days after November 1st), previous crop (maize or other), soil (lighter soils vs. heavier soils), tillage intensity (conventional vs. minimum), variety (open pollinated, Panar variety, variety PHB30G19, Seedco variety 400 serie, Seedco variety 500 serie, variety ZAP61, or other variety), quantity of N applied (kg ha −1 ), manure applied or not, intercropping or not, presence of hedgerow or not, weeding frequency (infrequent-0 or 1-and frequent-2 or more), pesticide applied or not, and distance to the closest patch of forest of at least 0.5 ha.We reviewed a total of 28 studies on natural enemy mediated pest control in various geographical locations and cropping systems to 1 https://www.dimagi.com/commcare/ draw conclusions about natural enemy mediated control of FAW in proximity of forest. Among these, 10 examined bird-mediated natural enemy pest control as it pertains to forest proximity to a field and the potential for birds to drive the reduced success of FAW in southern Africa. Similarly, nine other studies examined bat-mediated natural enemy pest control and impact of forest proximity in varying geographical locations and cropping systems, including two studies conducted in southern Africa. Moreover, we reviewed nine studies that assessed parasitoidmediated pest control and role of forest proximity in varying geographical locations and cropping systems that included three studies from southern Africa.Insectivorous birds can consume both FAW larvae and adult moths and thus act as possible biological drivers for the reduced success of FAW. For instance, predation by birds contributed significantly to FAW control on farms in Central America (FAO, 2018). Studies from its native range suggest that birds are more likely to eat the FAW caterpillars than the adult moths, but birds may have difficulty accessing the larvae deeper in the maize plant where larval development takes place (Harrison et al., 2019). However, it is unclear if the FAW larvae consumption by birds from the surface level is sufficient to significantly reduce the success of FAW.Forests can suppress crop pests by providing habitat for birds that consume crop pests, likely because of an increased abundance of birds in the farm field near forest through the spillover effect (Puckett et al., 2009). Many pest-consuming bird species in tropical areas are forest birds, and the rates of bird predation on crop pests also increases in forested landscapes (Boesing et al., 2017). For instance, increased distance from the forest edge resulted in decreased predation of crop pests by birds in sun-grown and shade-grown coffee plantations in Kenya (Milligan et al., 2016). However, this conclusion relies on the proxy of bird abundance for pest control by birds. Although many studies used bird abundance as a proxy for reduced crop pests, there is not enough evidence in the literature to conclude that using bird abundance as proxy for pest consumption can be generalized across landscapes (Puckett et al., 2009;Boesing et al., 2017).Pest control by birds depends on the spatial characteristics of the farm such as presence of native plants on the farm, whereas bird abundance is strongly linked to the landscape characteristics such as landscape heterogeneity and proximity to forest habitat (Boesing et al., 2017). High diversity in land-use such as forest, agriculture, or agroforestry, as well as crop mixes supports greater abundance of birds in West Africa (Boesing et al., 2017;Deikumah et al., 2017). For example, in a study by Deikumah et al. (2017) on avian-mediated pest control in Ghana, the mean observed species richness in cocoa farms with large trees integrated is about 50% greater than in a monoculture. Moreover, maintaining landscape connectivity is important in supporting a high abundance of insectivorous birds as is evidenced in tropical montane of Ethiopia (Gove et al., 2013). These findings suggest that farms that are closer to forests will likely have greater abundance of insectivorous birds than farms that are far from forests or contain no forest patches. Nevertheless, the relationship between bird abundance and pest predation on farms also depends on biological factors such as foraging ability in open areas. Birds need to balance the energy costs of traveling to nearby farms for food and therefore may forage only within 20 m of near-forest farmland (Puckett et al., 2009). In addition, pesticide use in farm fields may reduce the number of birds venturing into fields because of potentially lower foraging success (Puckett et al., 2009).In terms of FAW in southern Africa, there is no empirical evidence pertaining to FAW predation by birds except some anecdotes suggesting that birds are natural predators of FAW. Previous research has focused primarily on cash crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa), that are often grown in agroforestry systems in southern Africa (Williams-Guillén et al., 2008;Maas et al., 2016;Boesing et al., 2017). The few studies that assessed birdmediated pest control in maize farms in southern Africa suggest that farms in heterogenous landscapes support relatively high bird species richness and diversity, which is a mechanism that could significantly reduce the infestations of FAW in southern Africa (FAO, 2018). The biological mechanisms behind the link between increased landscape heterogeneity and bird-mediated pest control are well supported in general, but the understanding of which bird species provide pest control service and to what degree is limited in Africa (Boesing et al., 2017). There is no evidence of predation by birds on larvae because much of the larval development takes place deep within the maize plant, making the larva inaccessible to birds; for this reason, among others, significant reduction in FAW by birds in southern Africa is unlikely (Harrison et al., 2019).In conclusion, even though birds are known predators of FAW elsewhere, it is uncertain if they are responsible for the control of FAW in southern Africa. There is not enough evidence in the literature to support the hypothesis that predation by birds is the biological mechanism causing the decline in FAW on near-forest farms (Harrison et al., 2019;Lindell et al., 2018). Based on the limitations of the literature, extensive further research on birdmediated FAW control is needed.Insectivory in bats is widespread and they are effective predators, consuming up to 70% of their body weight in insects per night (Russo et al., 2018). By consuming adult insects, bats can control the mating and spawning success of crop pests. This is evidenced by increased bat activity on the farms during the growing season, which sees increased abundance of crop pests (Weier et al., 2018). Exclusion studies show a direct relationship between the absence of bats and increase in crop pests, as evidenced by Maine and Boyles (2015), who found that excluding bats from their study site led to 59% more corn earworm larvae/ear (Kalka et al., 2008;Maas et al., 2013). For example, exclosure of birds and bats resulted in increased arthropod herbivory in Indonesian cacao agroforestry systems (Maas et al., 2013;Gras et al., 2016). In contrast, the absence of bats resulted in increased crop damage by 56% as compared to controls and increased larval density of the corn ear moth in maize fields in Illinois (Maine and Boyles, 2015). Bats reduced herbivory by arthropods more than birds in tropical forests in Panama, but it is difficult to say if this can scale out to farms and crop plants (Kalka et al., 2008).Bats can additionally influence their prey by creating a \"landscape of fear, \" a predator-prey interaction where the prey alters its behavior or habitat use to avoid bat predation (Russo et al., 2018). Bats initiate a trophic cascade in the maize pests by lowering the larval density of the moth and shifting the reproductive behavior of the moths to more self-preservationist actions (Maine and Boyles, 2015). For example, some moths have tympanic organs that allow them to hear the calls that bats make for echolocation of prey. This alters the moth's behavior to maximize the likelihood of survival such as changing habitat or foraging or spawning behavior (Russo et al., 2018;Cinel and Taylor, 2019). Using paired control plots and nocturnal bat exclosures on maize fields in Illinois, Maine and Boyles (2015) found that even when bats were unable to access corn ear moths to consume them, the echolocation sounds used by the bats to hunt may have had an impact on the reproductive behaviors of the moths.Bats are known natural predators of FAW in its native range, and consumption of FAW moths by bats is a possible mechanism of FAW control in southern Africa (FAO, 2018;Harrison et al., 2019). An experiment examining the impact of bats on FAW moths showed that FAW moths are equipped with tympanic organs, which in the presence of bats can influence the moths to alter their flight or halt pheromone release (Cinel and Taylor, 2019). This study also found significant changes in the brain tissue of the FAW moths that were exposed to bat sounds, potentially affecting their mating behaviors. This suggests a closely evolved predator-prey relationship between bats and FAW and thus can be an effective mechanism for FAW control in southern Africa. However, it is difficult to determine the scale of the impact of bat predation on moth abundance and behavior due to a paucity of case studies across sites and crop types.Proximity to forest can influence the rate of bat predation on FAW depending on their feeding guilds (Williams-Guillén and Perfecto, 2011;Weier et al., 2018). For example, clusteredge feeders, i.e., the bats that feed at the edge, decrease in abundance further into agricultural fields, while open-air feeders increase further into a field when pests are abundant (Weier et al., 2018). Bats are more abundant in heterogenous landscapes with at least some trees in their foraging habitat (Russo et al., 2018). They prefer to feed in areas with forest fragments or with low intensity agriculture in proximity to roosting sites, as is evidenced in a shade-grown coffee site in Mexico (Williams-Guillén and Perfecto, 2011). Feeding activity was reduced in cluster-edge bats, while it remained similar in open-air feeders in more intensely managed agricultural landscapes (Williams-Guillén and Perfecto, 2011).Although there is clear evidence about the general relationship between the presence of bats and the reduction in crop pests, little information is available on biological control of crop pests by bats in Africa (Kalka et al., 2008;Maas et al., 2013;Maine and Boyles, 2015). African bat species are poorly studied compared to the bat species of Europe, Asia, and North America, so there is little information available about their habitat preferences and foraging behavior. The studies on batmediated pest control so far have primarily focussed on cash crops instead of subsistence farms in Africa. For example, bat predation on pests in macadamia plantations in South Africa increased as the abundance of prey increased (Weier et al., 2018). Species richness and bat activity levels were similar between macadamia plantation and riparian area habitat types in macadamia plantations in South Africa (Taylor et al., 2013). As this study was conducted in a forested landscape, the findings suggest that a heterogenous landscape with a variety of habitat types supports high species richness and feeding activity in bats (Taylor et al., 2013). However, it is difficult to draw conclusions about the potential impact of bats on crop yields in Africa due to lack of adequate evidence on bat predation on FAW in maize cultivation (Kunz et al., 2011;Weier et al., 2018).Given the research on the impact of bats on maize, bats are a likely driver of the reduced success of FAW near forests in southern Africa. However, considerable additional research is necessary to draw any definitive conclusions.Apart from the vertebrate predators, a diverse array of generalist predators of FAW have been reported in the Americas, Africa, and Asia (Wan et al., 2021). Among these, ground beetles (Carabidae), rove beetles (Staphylinidae), ants (Formicidae), earwigs (Labiduridae), social wasps (Hymenoptera), and spiders (Araneae) are known to attack FAW eggs and larvae (Harrison et al., 2019;Rukundo et al., 2020). For example, the earwigs Doru lineare and D. luteipes, that occur throughout the maize crop cycle, lay eggs inside the maize whorl and prey on FAW eggs and larvae (Sueldo et al., 2010;Prasanna et al., 2018). Nymphs and adults of D. luteipes feed on 8-12 and 10-21 FAW larvae daily, respectively (Prasanna et al., 2018). Similarly, predacious bugs such as Picromerus lewisi, Arma chinensis, Eocanthecona furcellata, and Andrallus spinidens prey on FAW larvae (Keerthi et al., 2020;Wan et al., 2021). Moreover, carabid beetles, rove beetles, spiders, and ants predate on FAW in maize fields as evidenced in North America, West Africa, and Asia (Harrison et al., 2019;Sharanabasappa et al., 2019;Dassou et al., 2021).Generalist predators can play a significant role in controlling FAW population by directly consuming FAW eggs and larvae in maize fields (Prasanna et al., 2018;Harrison et al., 2019). For instance, social wasps extracted FAW larvae from maize whorl and reduced 77% of FAW present in maize in Brazil (Prezoto and Machado, 1999). FAW damage in maize fields increased significantly when these generalist predators were selectively removed from the field (Clark, 1993). Conversely, decreased FAW damage in minimum-tillage maize fields in Florida and Mexico was attributed to higher density of general predators (Clark, 1993;Rivers et al., 2016).Proximity of maize fields to forest increases the local abundance and diversity of natural enemies, such as predatory solitary wasps (Harrison et al., 2019). For example, increasing distance of maize fields from the forest in Brazil resulted in a decline in predatory solitary wasp abundance and increase in FAW abundance (Sousa et al., 2011). Similarly, spiders and ground beetles were more abundant in maize fields within coffee agroforest landscapes (Wyckhuys and O'Neil, 2006;Harrison et al., 2019). However, the role of forest proximity on other generalist predators and their control of FAW is still poorly understood.In southern Africa, generalist predators, such as spiders, beetles, earwigs, social wasps, and ants are crucial in controlling lepidopteran pests of cereal crops and these predators attack FAW larvae as well (Harrison et al., 2019). For example, several species of earwigs such as Diaperasticus erythrocephalus have been found in the whorl and ears of maize in Africa (Prasanna et al., 2018). Similarly, many ant species predate on FAW in maize fields as evidenced in Ghana (Koffi et al., 2020), Cameroon (Dassou et al., 2021), and Nicaragua (Perfecto, 1991). Nevertheless, there is limited evidence available regarding the effectiveness of other generalist predators in controlling FAW population and the role of forest proximity in influencing generalist predators.Parasitoids are natural enemies of FAW that can reduce feeding capacity and weight gain of FAW larvae in maize fields (Meagher et al., 2016). There are over 150 parasitoids that attack FAW in its native range (Kenis et al., 2019). Some parasitoid species such as Telenomus remus have also been introduced in countries to control FAW outbreak (Kenis et al., 2019). Parasitoid control of FAW is more effective in maize fields with good soil conditions, such as high organic matter and active soil biology, no-till fields, and fields with integrated crop residues such as mulch (Harrison et al., 2019). In contrast, pesticide use and frequent disturbances of soil reduce parasitoid abundance (Letourneau et al., 2012;Quispe et al., 2017). For example, parasitism levels ranged from 1% in commercial maize treated with pesticides to 91.7% in experimental maize fields without any pesticide treatment (Meagher et al., 2016). FIGURE 2 | Dotwhisker plot representing estimates (dots) and 95% confidence intervals (whiskers) for a generalized linear models with a logit distribution. Whiskers crossing the y-axis (gray dotted line) indicate non-significance for the corresponding factor. \"Ward 20,\" \"maize as previous crop,\" \"conventional tillage,\" \"Seedco variety 500 serie,\" \"no manure applied,\" \"no intercropping,\" \"no hedgerow,\" \"infrequent weeding (none or one)\" and \"no pesticide applied\" were used as control in the model.Parasitoid abundance on farms near forests depends on a variety of landscape characteristics, including proximity to forest. Landscapes with vegetation cover sustain a greater abundance of parasitoids by providing diversity of potential hosts, stable areas to pupate, and a continuous supply of resources (Letourneau et al., 2012). Refuges or habitats with woody plant species also sustain higher level of parasitoid species richness than habitats with non-woody species; for example, a study by Quispe et al. (2017) surveying parasitoid richness in maize crops observed five species of parasitoids in the control maize field as compared to a total of 89 species across six experimental refuges, with a diversity of woody and herbaceous plants, adjacent to the maize field. Forests can also act as population source for the agricultural land that requires recolonization by parasitoids after disturbance, as evidenced in maize fields near a tropical rainforest (Kankonda et al., 2017). For instance, parasitoid abundance increased closer to the forest or at the edge of the field and decreased toward the middle of the field in Florida (Hay-Roe et al., 2016). Parasitoids particularly in the order Hymenoptera needs access to other resources such as pollen or nectar and move further into the center of a field when supplied with continuous vegetative cover and abundant flowering plants (Quispe et al., 2017). Thus, proximity to permanent vegetation and proximity to forest are important factors determining parasitoid abundance and consequently FAW control by parasitoids on farms.Unlike birds and bats, several studies directly examined parasitoid-mediated FAW control mechanism in Africa (Kenis et al., 2019;Sisay et al., 2019;Agboyi et al., 2020). Studies suggest that a variety of FAW parasitoids may exist in Africa despite the relatively recent colonization of FAW in the region (Kenis et al., 2019). This is evidenced by observation of T. remus in Kenya in 1988, much earlier than the FAW outbreak in Africa. Recent surveys also observed T. remus in Benin, Niger, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, and South Africa (Kenis et al., 2019) and six other species of parasitoids in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania (Sisay et al., 2019). Similarly, ten species of FAW egg, egg-larval, and larval parasitoids were found in two countries in East Africa (Agboyi et al., 2020). Most of the maize fields that contained FAW also had parasitoids of FAW, suggesting a direct relationship (Sisay et al., 2019). Many of these species of parasitoids of FAW belong to the order hymenoptera, which needs habitats with vegetation cover, suggesting that parasitoids are responsible for the reduced success of FAW on near-forest farms.Considering that there are over hundred parasitoids of FAW in its native range, it is likely that many potential parasitoid species in Africa that could be crucial for FAW control have not yet been identified (Kenis et al., 2019). Moreover, parasitoid impact on crop yields in Africa is still poorly understood (Kenis et al., 2019;Sisay et al., 2019;Agboyi et al., 2020). This calls for an extensive survey of the presence of parasitoids of FAW and research on the impact of parasitoid-mediated FAW control on crop yields in southern Africa. Nevertheless, there is enough evidence to conclude that parasitoids play an important role in controlling FAW on farms near forests.Case Study in Zimbabwe: Does Proximity to Forest Reduce Fall Armyworm Infestation?Incidence of FAW plant damage (% plants displaying leaf damage due to FAW) was found to increase significantly with increasing distance from a forest patch of at least 0.5 ha (Figure 2). The only factors having a significant effect at 5% were \"Ward\" (with higher infestation in the wetter Wards 16 and 18 than in the drier Ward 20) and \"Pesticide application\" (with incidence higher in plots where pesticides were applied, pesticide application being no doubt the result of higher infestation and not the other way around) (Figure 2). Thus, in this case, distance to forest had a much higher impact on FAW incidence than maize variety, planting date, or nitrogen applied.The results of this literature review suggests that research on natural enemy mediated control of FAW so far has primarily focused on cash crops and in Europe and North America. One of the drivers for such a bias in research focus could be disproportionate funding availability for economically valuable cash crops in high demand such as coffee, cocoa, and macadamia nuts in Europe and North America. Additionally, more funding may be directed toward studies on farming practices that are associated with an incentive for biodiversity conservation such as agroforestry sites with higher plant diversity. However, it is difficult to tease apart the conservation and economic drivers in the case of high value crops such as coffee that are also agroforestry products. It is also important to note that the results of this study were limited to an extent by the specific databases used for the literature review. The databases we chose, i.e., Google Scholar may provide results based on past search history unique to the researcher and UBC Library is not accessible by all researchers, thus affecting the replicability of this work.The results of the case study conducted in Zimbabwe support the claim that proximity to a forest patch will reduce the incidence of FAW on maize (Figure 2). This result is consistent with the findings of most of the literature used in this review, which demonstrates that landscape heterogeneity is correlated positively with natural enemy mediated pest control (Harrison et al., 2019). Another recent study by Jordon et al. (2021) conducted in Ghana found that FAW damage increases with increasing distance from a patch of natural habitat, which supports the findings of our case study. Much of the literature included in this review has been primarily focused on maize crops outside southern Africa or on cash crops. Although the case study did not examine mechanisms of the reduced FAW damage, in light of the available literature the relationship could be related to either the decreased reproductive success of FAW, due to bat and parasitoid predation, or the increased predation of caterpillar due generalist predators (Kalka et al., 2008;Quispe et al., 2017). The case study provides a base for additional research, which could attempt to identify the mechanism of the decreased FAW damage as it relates to near-field proximity to a forest patch.Although the existing literature is inconclusive on the effectiveness of natural enemy mediated control of FAW in southern Africa, several studies suggest experimental methods for assessing predation of FAW by birds, bats, generalist predators and parasitoids, in addition to those demonstrated in the case study. In terms of specific recommendations for future research, predation of FAW by birds and bats can be evaluated using diurnal and nocturnal exclosures, respectively. A diurnal exclosure with increasing proximity to the forest can be useful for examining the foraging success of birds on FAW. A design of sites that are exclosed or open placed in pairs at increasing distance from the forest diurnally or nocturnally can be useful for determining FAW control by birds and bats, respectively. The same researchers can conduct the studies on birds and bats simultaneously on different farms to optimize the use of time, resources, and potentially farmer participation. The experiment would then contain plots with no cover, diurnal cover, nocturnal cover, and constant cover, as suggested in previous studies (Kalka et al., 2008;Karp et al., 2013;Maas et al., 2013). Data on the crop damage can be collected in both sites to determine the efficacy of natural enemy mediated FAW control.Many of the parasitioids of FAW in Africa are larval parasitoids, but there are some eggs and larval-pupal parasitoids as well. Setting up traps at sites with varying distances from the forest can be useful in determining the percentage of parasitoidism. The percentages of parasitoidism from samples of various life-history stages such as eggs, larvae and/or pupae can be used to measure the rate of parasitoidism within the field. As the larvae are well protected from predators within the corn plant, parasitoids may be the most efficient biological control mechanism for FAW (Hay-Roe et al., 2016). Unfortunately, there are limited examples of methods examining how parasitism rates impacts crop damage. The level of parasitism has been assessed from the number of parasitoids on sampled plants from infested maize fields (Sisay et al., 2019;Agboyi et al., 2020). Similarly, parasitoid abundance is determined by placing traps consisted of PVC cylinders at different points within maize fields and later analyzing in the laboratory (Hay-Roe et al., 2016).Additional challenges for conducting FAW research exist in considering the priorities and beliefs around natural enemy mediated pest control in southern Africa. The fear surrounding bats could potentially be a significant barrier for discussing batmediated pest control for farmers. Bats are often considered to carry disease and farmers may be unwilling to take actions or participate in experiments that would increase the abundance of bats on their farm (Harrison et al., 2019). Furthermore, not all bats and birds are insectivorous; many birds and bats are also considered crop pests. Thus, farmers may not want to participate in activities that could increase the abundance of cropconsuming vertebrates by improving habitat on their farms, even if it comes with the benefit of reducing FAW. For this reason, it is recommended that research on the needs and beliefs of farmers must be conducted before research on ways to improve natural enemy mediated pest control on farms.In terms of management, there are potential negative implications to identifying a controller vs. identifying suppressors. In this case, the controller is the group that reduces FAW success the most, whereas the suppressors will reduce FAW success only to a certain degree. If a controller is identified, it is possible that research funding and policy would focus mainly on improving the species richness and abundance of that group without fully appreciating the redundancies and suppression that the other groups provide. For example, management activities that support bats such as placing bat boxes in a field would do little to support birds or parasitoids that will not or cannot venture far into a maize field. One possible outcome to focusing on only one group is that the suppression effects of the other groups might be negatively affected. Providing habitat for only one group will also decrease the resilience of natural enemy mediated pest control on the farm. Therefore, another recommendation for further research is to evaluate the interactions between the pest-controlling groups carefully before making management suggestions for FAW control.Finally, this review and the findings of the case study suggests that increasing landscape diversity has the potential to improve the abundance of natural enemies to FAW. However, convincing farmers to add trees and perennials at the field scale would be easier with the economic justification that damage from pests will be reduced. Trees provide a myriad of other benefits to increase productivity of farms (Isbell et al., 2017) and it is recommended that this evidence can be used to make the case to farmers to improve tree cover on farms. Trees and perennials on a farm can contribute to subsistence or even cash crop production and still provide benefits to wildlife (Jose, 2012). Options for using trees for more productive farms include planting fruit trees, using trees as fodder banks for livestock, or planting trees that grow a cash crop or medicine (Sinclair, 1999). However, trees might also negatively affect crop production and thus require careful consideration to balance trade-offs (Sida et al., 2018). Conducting research to determine which species are the most effective natural enemies to FAW is critical to combat food insecurity in southern Africa. Research on FAW natural enemy control in concert with improving landscape heterogeneity in a way that is acceptable for farmers is the best path forward for organizations seeking to improve livelihoods in southern Africa.Controlling FAW infestation in maize cultivation in Africa is key to ensuring food security and livelihoods for smallholder farmers. Our review of existing research on natural enemy mediated pest control in the context of the FAW invasion of southern Africa suggests that the most specific and conclusive evidence on natural enemy mediated control of FAW exists for parasitoids followed by bats, whereas the effectiveness of bird predation and generalist predators on FAW control in southern Africa is not well understood. Due to the research gap surrounding natural enemy mediated pest control on subsistence farms, no clear conclusions about its effect on FAW in southern Africa can be drawn. We suggest possible experimental methods for future studies on the relationship between forest proximity and natural enemy mediated pest control. Nevertheless, evidence from previous studies and our case study support the claim that landscape heterogeneity improves natural enemy pest control on farms. Considering that FAW is a highly polyphagous foreign pest, further research is necessary to demonstrate that landscape heterogeneity improves both the habitat for potential natural enemies and the predation level by those enemies on FAW in southern Africa. Therefore, we recommend that future management strategies should focus on improving tree and perennial cover at the field scale to provide habitat for potential natural enemies while simultaneously conducting research on biological mechanisms of natural enemy mediated FAW control and its impact on crop yield.","tokenCount":"6273"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"109c2feb97bd75e9e1ea0f51c3cdcdbd","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/26bd2543-eea3-40ce-8d7e-2a8c330bd1d9/retrieve","id":"184744759"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"d3cbd318-5e66-486b-9da5-d491b6547dd7","pagecount":"2","content":"India became the first nation in the world to adopt a comprehensive agroforestry plan when the President of India launched the National Agroforestry Policy (NAP) at the World Agroforestry Congress in February 2014, an event organized by ICRAF and partners. The policy recognises the potential of agroforestry to reduce poverty, enhance productivity, while also making agricultural landscapes more resilient to the risks of climate change. The comprehensive policy intends to address the increasing demand for timber, food, fuel, fodder, fertiliser and fibre, while at the same time creating employment opportunities and generating income. The policy envisages the development of a National Agroforestry Mission/Board with an initial investment of approximately USD 33 million, to coordinate agroforestry related activities in the country. ICRAF contributed to the policy development process. In June 2011, ICRAF with key national partners, especially the National Advisory Council (NAC) launched an Agroforestry Policy Initiative (API). Another workshop in 2012 and a series of them in 2013 brought out a framework and significant recommendations, which contributed to the preparation of the draft agroforestry policy. These efforts specifically sought to mainstream climate change and its related aspects, and the policy document highlights the climate change policy implementation, including through support to the National Agroforestry Mission/Board.","tokenCount":"205"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"40f852a64b015c75d86135658eeed984","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/766ba693-6200-4727-acef-18c1e6299fcb/retrieve","id":"-527653789"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"ebd08145-2180-4714-a2a3-c6e439ed4e61","pagecount":"4","content":"In 2019, an estimated 690 million people were malnourished 1 . Improving access to accurate information on health and nutrition status is critical to monitoring for humanitarian disaster, assessing the impacts of interventions and monitoring national progress against benchmarks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hiring and managing teams As participants in the Improving Dietary and Health Data for Decision-making in Agriculture and Nutrition Actions in Africa project, caregivers use smartphones to record and submit information on consumption, food security and nutritional status on themselves and their children, while also receiving feedback on their progress against internationallyrecognized benchmarks. The application, known as 'Mbiotisho', which means 'our health' in Samburu, relies on icons and audio to help the caregiver record data without requiring literacy, numeracy, or any previous experience with smartphones. Data are stored on the phones until the caregiver has access to cellular connectivity, at which time the data are submitted to the server and evaluated.To pilot Mbiotisho, we partnered with the existing community health infrastructure in Samburu County, Kenya. The region's Community Health Extension Worker (CHEW) helped us identify four Community Health Units (CHUs) that vary in remoteness, accessibility, connectivity coverage, literacy levels and exposure to smartphone use (Figure 1). Five Community Health Volunteers (CHVs) from each CHU were selected to participate on the basis of having been actively collecting and submitting data consistently for the last six months, familiarity with smartphones 2 , and availability for the pilot duration. Here, we note that CHVs already perform monthly check-ups with clients, pregnant women and new caregivers and their infants, as part of their work. As participants in this project, these CHVs also collected verification data from the caregivers while performing their monthly rounds.The CHVs were trained for three days on a data collection tool developed by the project for use by the CHVs, and on related technical modules (curriculum developed by Kenya's Ministry of Health) relevant to the indicators collected by the initiative. The CHVs were also trained on caregivers' application features and how to address basic ICT technical challenges. Partway through the training, two additional CHVs were recruited and added to the project in order to mitigate the impact of prospective CHV attrition.The CHVs then developed a roster of eligible participants from their list of clients, that is, caregivers aged 15-49 years with a child aged 5-7 months at the time of enrolment. The project selected nine caregivers from that roster. The selected caregivers were then invited to participate in the project in their respective CHUs and provided with in-person training followed by participation in unsupervised data collection practice at home. They were trained on basic smartphone use and maintenance, on the indicators being tracked and how to measure them (e.g., food groups, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC)), plus the data collection tool and application features.While participation was voluntary, and the caregivers could record and submit information as little as they liked, the application limited their maximum submissions to once every 24 hours for the child and caregiver check-ups, and once every week for the child MUAC measurement. The CHVs were to complete a child and caregiver check-up each month as they did their standard rounds.During the 12-month pilot, the caregivers submitted over 60,000 records on their health and nutrition and that of one of their children. That is an average of six records per caregiver per week for the duration of the project. Highlighting an additional advantage of the caregivercollected data model, submissions continued during the six months that our field teams were restricted from fieldwork due to the adverse conditions created by the COVID-19 pandemic and related policies 3 . Standard enumerator approaches would have resulted in a large data gap in this period, but the caregivers continued recording and submitted information during the entire period when they did not have any in-person support from our team.Six weeks after the pilot started, we launched a new feature on the caregivers' application, which provided them with reports comparing the consumption and MUAC readings of their index child to that of international benchmarks. Caregivers were briefly trained on the new reporting feature and provided feedback on the changes in the application that they would like to see. Caregivers responded enthusiastically to the new reporting feature and requested a similar addition, one that would track their own progress. The caregiver report was built into the app and launched remotely because field visits were restricted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.At the end of the pilot, a final feedback session was conducted. This was in the form of a structured set of questions administered by CHVs to the caregivers, aimed at eliciting caregivers' views and experiences, plus their recommendations for possible improvements.In total, 18 CHVs and 128 caregivers participated in the endline survey. It was noted that a number of issues, including migration, mobility and COVID-19 restrictions, reduced participation in the endline survey, which was collected in-person during the closing meetings and required that participants travel to a central location.3. See Lepariyo (2020) for more information on details on how the project thrived during the pandemic.Piloting tools for caregiver-collected health and nutrition information 3 Which sections of the app did the participants like and dislike most? We asked the participants to identify the sections of the application that they liked and disliked the most. Both CHVs and caregivers liked the sections on consumption of food groups and measuring and photographing MUAC the most (Figure 2). On dislikes, 2% of caregivers reported that they did not like the MUAC section and 1% of the caregivers most disliked the food groups and health-seeking behaviour. Eighty-eight per cent (88%) of the caregivers reported that they had mostly controlled what the payments were used for, while 56% of the CHVs reported the same (Figure 3, left panel). A large proportion of the participants, 91% of the caregivers and 72% of the CHVs, reported using the incentive to purchase food (Figure 3, right panel).Here we note two large differences between the CHVs and caregivers that could influence the responses to this question. First, all the caregivers were women, but some of the CHVs were men. Second, the CHVs received a steady stipend each month of about USD 30 for their work with the project, and that stipend was more than double the average monthly payments received by the caregivers.  Improving the Mbiotisho application before rolling it out to new regions is key to its future success. Therefore, caregivers were asked to suggest improvements. The most popular response (21%) was to add a measurement of the caregiver's MUAC and accompanying photos. Other suggestions included adding questions on how the food was prepared (11%), adding height and weight measurement questions (7%), and adding a confirmation indicator that the data had been successfully delivered to the server (6%). Seventeen percent (17%) of the caregivers thought the application was good enough and did not require additional features.Based on feedback collected from the caregivers and CHVs, as well as analysis of data variation and accuracy, the application is being updated. Our main lessons from the pilot were that caregivers are willing and able to record and submit information on themselves and their children. In addition, they are interested in the process and value the feedback provided in the app.Mbiotisho was launched in three new locations with different 'difficult-to-reach' populations. This required customizing the application to meet the specific needs of each collaborator. For example, in one case we are working with the World Food Program (WFP) and the National AIDS and STIs Control Program (NASCOP) to monitor undernutrition and overnutrition among people living with HIV. For that implementation, we have added questions related to access to treatment and adherence to treatment regimens, as well as maintaining the core modules on health and nutrition.The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) is a non-profit institution helping people in low-and middle-income countries to improve their lives, livelihoods and lands through the animals that remain the backbone of small-scale agriculture and enterprise across the developing world. ILRI belongs to CGIAR, a global research-for-development partnership working for a food-secure future. ILRI's funders, through the CGIAR Trust Fund, and its many partners make ILRI's work possible and its mission a reality. Australian animal scientist and Nobel Laureate Peter Doherty serves as ILRI's patron. You are free to use and share this material under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence .better lives through livestock ilri.orgNathaniel Jensen, Vincent Alulu and Watson Lepariyo work for ILRI. Simbarashe Sibanda works for FANRPAN.Nathaniel Jensen ILRI, Kenya [email protected] 1: ILRI/Anyota Lesupeer Page 4: UNICEF Ethiopia ILRI thanks all donors and organizations which globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust.","tokenCount":"1440"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"2e775a24b1f3cd530e462e0dc7e63441","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/b288deb7-7f8c-45bb-b00b-1ef48cdb902d/retrieve","id":"22438142"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"8b188fb5-6f78-4ee4-96e6-8952169dd907","pagecount":"40","content":"This paper reviews cassava in Asia with emphasis on Thailand, culminating in a definition of the research areas that will contribute effectively to development goals in the region. The first section outlines regional trends in production, trade and utilization, drawing comparisons to global trends. A basic tenet of the paper is that the competitive marketplace -at local, regional and international levels -is rapidly changing cassava's roles in development. Hence, in the second section the discussion is placed in the context of the external social, economic and political environments that impact the cassava sector. The third section then indicates specific constraints and opportunities in the cassava system. Finally, we outline the role of key research areas for the cassava systems of Asia.Annual rate Cassava of growth production 1990-98 ('000 t) (%)Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) has its origin in Latin America, where it has been grown as a staple food by the native Indian population for at least 4000 years. After the discovery of the Americas, the crop was introduced by European traders into Africa as a potentially useful food crop; later it was also taken to Asia to be grown as a food security crop and for the extraction of starch. Thus, in the 19 th Century cassava became an important food and industrial crop in southern India, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. After the second World War it also became an important industrial crop in Thailand, while in southern China and Vietnam it was initially used as a food crop but has become more recently an important crop for animal (mainly pig) feeding and for processing into various industrial products such as native starch, modified starch, MSG, sweeteners and alcohol.Figure 1 shows the cassava production areas in the world, while Figures 2 and 3 show in more detail the distribution of cassava in Asia and in Thailand respectively. Figure 1 and Table 1 indicate that in 1998 about 56% of cassava was produced in Africa, 27% in Asia, and only 17% in Latin America. During the past decade cassava production in Asia grew at an average annual rate of 1.35%, while in Asia and Latin America it decreased at a rate of 0.82 and 0.64%, respectively.Figure 2 and Table 2 show that within Asia most cassava is produced in Thailand, followed by Indonesia, India, China, Vietnam and the Philippines. Yields are by far the highest in India, with an average yield of 24.0 t/ha, compared with 16.3 t/ha in Thailand and 14.4 t/ha for Asia as a whole. To a large degree, Thailand has defined the variations in total annual output for Asia over the past 30 years. Other countries have made relatively modest contributions to the fluctuations in aggregate production (Figures 4 and 5). In Thailand, cassava area and production increased markedly during the 1970s and early 80s, reaching a peak in 1989, after which both declined (Figure 6). The reduction in area is not being offset fully by yield increases, as the crop has been pushed towards more marginal land in the Northeast. It appears that this trend may have reversed over the past few years with widespread adoption of new varieties and improved production practices.in Asia in 1998. Asia, 1961Asia, -2000 Source: FAOSTAT, 2001FAOSTAT, . 0 1961FAOSTAT, 1988FAOSTAT, 1991FAOSTAT, 1994FAOSTAT, 1997FAOSTAT, 2000 Million tonnes 0 1 2 3 4 5 Million hectares 1964Million hectares 1967Million hectares 1970Million hectares 1973Million hectares 1976Million hectares 1979Million hectares 1982Million hectares 1985 Production AreaFigure 5. Cassava production trends in Asia's principal producing countries. Source: FAOSTAT, 2001FAOSTAT, . 0 5 1961FAOSTAT, 1964FAOSTAT, 1967FAOSTAT, 1970FAOSTAT, 1973FAOSTAT, 1976FAOSTAT, 1979FAOSTAT, 1982FAOSTAT, 1985FAOSTAT, 1988FAOSTAT, 1991FAOSTAT, 1994FAOSTAT, 1997FAOSTAT, 2000 Million Most crops occupy the micro-environments where they are best adapted within a region. Cassava, though, rarely does. In rainfall-limited areas such as eastern Java, northeast Thailand, or non-irrigated southern India, few crops can match the stability of production of cassava. Cassava normally occupies the hillsides and drought-prone areas, and acid soil regions where other crops can be successfully grown only with high input levels.Production practices vary widely across the region (Table 3). The vast majority of farms in Asia are small, usually in the range of 0.5-5 ha. In the more land-rich areas, cassava competes principally with tree crops: coconuts in the Philippines; coconuts and rubber in Kerala, India; oil palm and rubber in Malaysia and the outer islands of Indonesia; cashew in southern Vietnam and rubber in eastern Thailand.Cassava is mainly monocropped, but intercropping is common on parts of Java where there are not severe soil and water constraints. Main intercrops here are upland rice, maize and various grain legumes. In Tamil Nadu of India, intercropping with vegetables has become relatively common. In China and Vietnam, maize, peanuts, black beans and various minor species, such as watermelon or pumpkin, may be intercropped, usually at a low density. Cassava is commonly used as an intercrop during the establishment of young tree crops like rubber and cashew, especially in China and South Vietnam.In contrast to both Latin America and Africa, genetic diversity is extremely limited in commercial plantings in Asia, with the exception of Indonesia. In most countries only a few varieties account for most of the production. The narrow genetic base has apparently not led to any major production disasters. It did, however, limit the possibilities to extend the range of adaptation, or to make adequate improvement in some characters. By good fortune, few of the pests and diseases of the New World found their way to Asia, so a broad genetic base was less critical for supplying resistance genes, as compared with Africa or Latin America.Production practices may be fully manual, or with mechanized/animal-powered land preparation. The broadly rising incomes and labor costs in Asia are motivating increased mechanization, especially in Thailand and Malaysia, and in the plantation systems of other countries. Most other operations are manual. The largest production cost for cassava in Asia is consistently labor, especially for land preparation, weed control, and harvest. But many of the labor inputs for cassava are technically difficult to substitute with mechanization on small holdings with irregular terrain.Production costs vary significantly across the region (Table 4). Production costs per ha for advanced farmers in Thailand are higher than in Indonesia and the Philippines, but lower than in Vietnam, China and India. When calculated per tonne of fresh roots produced, production costs in Thailand are slightly higher than in Indonesia and the Philippines, but much lower than in India and China. Table 5 shows, however, that for the average Thai farmer the cost of production per ha is lower, but the cost of production per tonne is considerally higher due to the lower yields obtained. It is clear that cassava products from Thailand can remain competitive on the world market only if farmers increase their yields through the use of improved varieties and better production practices.   Adapted from TTDI, 2000.In general, however, Asian countries are comparatively efficient producers, by use of some inputs, good management, and low pest and disease pressures. Table 6 illustrates production costs for Thailand, Brazil and Colombia, and the competitive advantage that Thailand has had in world markets in part because of lower costs, both in production and processing.  Henry and Gottret, 1996. Diversity is the defining characteristic of cassava products and markets in Asia, both within and across countries. About 40% of cassava in the region is destined for human consumption (in Indonesia, the level is about two-thirds) (FAOSTAT, 1997). Most of the remainder is processed for industrial purposes, principally pellets for animal feed, and starch. Fresh roots are not traded on any significant scale. The initial processing defines to some degree the market sector to which roots can be destined. This is unlike the grains such as maize which are traded as whole, unprocessed grain, to be converted into any number of products in the importing country.Outside of Kerala, India and some poorer districts of China and Vietnam, nearly all cassava for food is first processed; direct consumption of baked or boiled fresh roots is minor. This form of consumption is largely a rural practice, and often by households having cassava in their own backyard garden. Fresh consumption has limited growth potential, and in fact will probably decline with increasing urbanization and changes in dietary preferences.Cassava flours come in many forms. The most common is gaplek in Indonesia. Roots are peeled, chipped or sliced, and dried. The dried chunks are ground or milled to a meal, which is then used in a wide array of food preparations. It is consumed especially in times of rice scarcity, and partially substitutes for rice in rural daily diets. Cassava flour may also partially substitute for wheat flour in bakery and other products. This is still minor in Asia, but is reported unofficially from several countries (Henry and Gottret, 1996).The commercial cassava pellet industry has its origin in Thailand, which has a long history of an agricultural economy driven by exports. With a surplus land base, rice exports became the foundation of Thai trade up to World War II. Development of the upland sector in the North and Northeast brought diversification to agriculture, adding maize, cassava, pineapple and sugarcane.Exports of dried cassava products climbed steadily up to 1990, but declined afterwards as Europe began to withdraw its favorable import conditions. Thailand has aggressively sought alternative markets, with some success, but not nearly at levels absorbed by Europe in the 1980s (Figure 7, Table 7). While the potential for development of internal markets remains promising, the generally low commodity prices of the past several years have made this difficult.  Starch for industry is classified as native or modified. The technology for modifying starches with physical, chemical and biological processes is highly advanced and evolving rapidly. These modified starches are absorbing an increasing market share. At the same time, there is pressure in some industries, especially foods, to move away from modification based on chemicals.Starch-derived products include sweeteners (high fructose syrup, glucose syrup), dextrins, monosodium glutamate, pharmaceuticals and various chemicals. Starch is used in large quantities in the manufacture of paper, plywood, textiles, and as a filler/stabilizer in processed foods. New products from starch are continually entering the marketplace. Biodegradable plastics appear to be especially promising. Throughout the region, the industry is moving toward larger, more technologically advanced plants, and small, less efficient factories are closing.Thailand is leading the Asian starch boom, surpassing Indonesia in recent years (Figure 8). Both export sales and domestic use have increased significantly. Although the starch export industry of Thailand has been active since the 1940s, it was rejuvenated in the 1980s when Europe began to set limits on imports of cassava chips and pellets. This was also a time of rapid economic growth in Thailand, and the starch industry attracted the attention of entrepreneurs. At present, about 45% of cassava root production in Thailand is used for production of starch, 55% of which is utilized locally for production of various products, while 45% is exported (Figure 9). The focus for exports has been on modified starches, to get around some of the import barriers imposed against native starch. Nonetheless, the increase in starch exports has not nearly kept pace with the decline in pellet exports. Private and public sectors are cooperating to identify and exploit internal growth markets for starch as a complementary strategy to export-orientation. Asia ( in 1992).Source: Ostertag, 1996 Internal markets absorb most of Indonesia's starch. Nearly two-thirds goes into cassava crackers (krupuk). Because of the specific starch characteristic required for this product, maize starch is not a competitor. This gives some insulation from the fluctuations of world starch prices. Both China and Vietnam have significantly expanded and modernized their starch industries. Monosodium glutamate and glucose (starch derivatives) are rapidly growing markets in both countries. In Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, cassava is virtually the only raw material for starch production. Any growth in starch demand should benefit the cassava sector. In China, India and the Philippines, there are other starch sources (especially sweetpotato and maize in China), but these are often used in industries such as noodle-making where cassava starch does not compete. Hence, even in these countries the market potential for cassava starch is strong.In some countries cassava is used for the production of ethanol. In the late 1970s several alcohol distilling factories were set up in Brazil using fresh cassava roots as raw material. The alcohol was used as automotive fuel, either mixed with gasoline (up to 20% alcohol) for which no motor modification is required, or as pure anhydrous ethanol, in which case the carburator and some other parts need to be modified (de Souza Lima, 1980). Both result in less atmospheric pollution than the use of gasoline. By the late 1980s, however, nearly all cassava-based distilleries were converted over to using sugarcane as the raw material, since the sugarcane bagasse could be used as fuel, thus saving on energy costs.In China, several factories in Guangxi, are now using the solid waste (pulp) of the cassava starch industry for the production of ethanol (Gu Bi and Ye Guozhen, 2000), and in the Philippines the San Miguel Corporation is setting up a cassava-based alcohol factory in Negros Oriental for use in the liquor industry (Bacusmo, 2001).Thailand's continuing efforts to reduce its dependency on the European animal feed market will dominate directions of the Asian cassava sector for the next decade. This will take several forms: introducing production technology to keep prices competitive with alternative energy sources; aggressively seeking new markets outside Europe; development of internal feed markets; and further diversification into starch and flour, with strong support for research on new processes and products. Other countries of the region, once with aspirations to penetrate export markets for pellets, are now recognizing that opportunities will depend very much on increasing production and processing efficiencies (Table 8).Prospects for starch vary widely depending on the specific market. There are two extremes: purely commodity starches with generic application, and highly specialized starches reliant on functionality. The latter are often derived from modified starches. However, in the middle, there are starches that are comparatively specialized, though sharing functionality with other starches. In this group, functionality is the initial criteria of suitability, followed by price and supply. For generic starch, the different sources (maize, cassava, sweetpotato, white potato) compete with one another on the basis of price. The markets for specialized starch are rather uncertain. On the one hand there is increasing demand, but on the other, there is a continually evolving technology for modifying starches to meet specific product properties. While technology for modification is moving rapidly, at the same time there is a strong trend away from modified starches in some products and in some key markets like the US and EU. For example, baby foods use virtually no modified starches, and the amounts used in soups is much reduced compared to just five years ago. Ostertag (1996) suggests that most developing countries will use their resources most effectively to first concentrate on developing internal starch markets, to reduce the risks inherent in the export sector.Whether or not the use of alcohol as automotive fuel is economically viable depends mainly on the world price of oil. During the past two decades oil prices have been relatively low and alcohol substitution would be more expensive; however, this can change in the future as oil supplies become exhausted or when for political reasons production does not keep pace with demand.In a recent study of the major tropical root crops, Scott et al. (2000a) project cassava production and utilization in the year 2020, based on a model that takes into account virtually all the world's food production and consumption (International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)). Moderate demand growth for cassava products in Asia through 2020 will sustain viable cassava-based development. The growth sectors vary within the region. In China, growth in feed demand will be among the strongest anywhere, at 2.1% per year, accompanied by a continuing trend for lower direct use as food. Southeast Asia should see healthy growth in all sectors: 1.4% in food, 0.13% for feed, and a total of 1.25% (including industrial use) (Table 9). The import demand in the non-cassava producing countries of East Asia will rise at 1.0% per year, providing some additional market possibilities.  Rosegrant and Gerpacio, 1997;and Scott et al., 2000b.Agricultural research has a key role in development. But for maximum impact it must be attuned to the broader social and economic environments of the target area. Progress towards improvement of production, processing and market development systems that will broadly benefit society is intimately related to broader trends and influences.The policy arena, possibly more than any other influence, sets the stage for cassava's role in a given country. Agricultural policy, as well as broader economic and trade policies, impact the cassava sector in several ways. Liberalized trade became the economic mantra of the 1990s. The watershed Uruguay round of multilateral trade negotiations, under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), was a fundamental influence on the direction of the global economy. While more recent attempts at broad trade agreements under the World Trade Organization, successor to GATT, have been less successful, there is little likelihood of reversing the broad trend toward freer trade. Trade liberalization will bring complex and sometimes unpredictable adjustments to agriculture. The implementation of regional trade agreements is well-advanced in Asia. The Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation forum (APEC) has 18 members, which in total comprise half the world economy. Most of the major cassava-producing countries of the region (except India) are members. APEC aims to achieve free and open trade and investment by 2010 for its industrialized members and by 2020 for the others.Previously-protected sectors of the economy are in flux as they are subjected to the open market. Countries that expect to export their products are under strong pressure to open their markets to imports as well. Agriculture has been one of the sectors most broadly affected by this trend, since it is of nearly universal relevance to countries' economies, and touches fundamentally on the lives of nearly all people. On the whole, liberalized trade agreements should drive broad-based growth through specialization, efficiency gains, and increased trade in agricultural products. In a free trade environment, commodity prices typically fluctuate more (based on supply and demand) than in a regulated environment. Producers are more likely to switch in and out of crops to take best advantage of these fluctuations. The dilemma that cassava-producers often face, however, is the fact that they have little flexibility in choice of crops. First, on the more marginal soils, cassava may be the only choice without resorting to costly inputs. Secondly, the nature of cassava's propagation does not allow quickly gearing up for production if a supply of planting material has not been assured by the previous year's crop. Stabilizing demand in an environment of freer trade will depend on the ability of the industry to respond quickly to shifts in product demand.A second trend important to trade is the tendency to add value at the site of origin, and to trade in processed products. By 2020, there will be far less trade of the traditional raw agricultural products (e.g., grains); most will be products with value added either by processing or through genetically engineered specialty traits incorporated for specific enduses. Often, trade policies affecting processed products are different from those imposed on raw products.Population increase remains a major driving force that will shape development progress, at least for a few more decades to come. Poorer countries absorb most of the impact. While on a global level it seems that food production can keep pace with population increase, poverty and hunger persist in many countries, especially in the tropical belt. The consequences of these dual scourges of poverty and hunger then reverberate throughout all areas of human and environmental well-being.The United Nations projects that global population will continue to rise to about the year 2040, when it will have doubled from today's level, to 8-11 billion. Growth rate should decline from about 1.4% to 1.0% by 2020. This mean rate hides the highly disproportionate differences between developed and developing countries -a 3.4% population increase in the former, compared to 35.8% in the latter, in the period from 1998 to 2020. By far the greatest burden of this continued population growth will be felt in urban areas. Latin America is already at a level of almost three-quarters of its population living in cities. Like much of the rest of the world, Asia has been moving toward greater urbanization for at least several decades (Figure 10). Both Africa and Asia appear set to continue a nearly linear trend toward greater urbanization, with about equal numbers of rural and urban residents in both regions by 2020 (FAOSTAT). This is largely the dynamic that drives commercial agriculture --urban dwellers need to purchase nearly all their food.Source: FAOSTAT, 2001. Population dynamics affect cassava production and marketing in various ways. In the simplest of cases, population increase imposes a proportional increase on food demand. With most of the productive land already cultivated, this places pressure on marginal environments where cassava has strong adaptive advantages. On the other side, urbanization typically reduces demand for cassava and its products for direct food use. Huang and Bouis (1996) note several reasons for shifts in food demand that follow urbanization:-A wider choice of foods is available in urban markets -People are exposed to new dietary patterns from different regional traditions -Urban lifestyles place a premium on foods that require less time to prepare -Transaction costs are lower -Urban occupations generally require fewer calories than more physically demanding rural ones Except in Indonesia and southern India, cassava has never been broadly popular as a dietary staple in Asia. In several countries there remains a considerable stigma against cassava as a food --a reflection of past difficult economic times. Rising incomes will further erode cassava's direct role in Asian diets. The overwhelming preference for rice as the starchy staple, and the increasing demand for meat (Figure 11), will keep per capita consumption levels low throughout Asia. The growth in meat consumption, however, is the basis for projecting strong potential to use cassava for on-farm feeding, or in balanced rations, especially for pigs and chickens. While not all countries have benefited equally, Asian economies on the whole have seen healthy growth in the past two decades. Industrial development, the service sector, and labor demand, have all had an impact that affects all sectors of society. Rising household incomes open the way for purchase of consumer goods, education and health care. Improved tax bases contribute to public infrastructure in the form of roads, schools and public services. In this scenario, cassava tends to move toward industrial uses, such as animal feed and starch-based products.Cassava's competitive position in national and international markets is closely linked to internal and world supplies and market prices of alternative commodities or products. Because of cassava's versatility, it may compete with a range of products in different markets. In the market for balanced feed rations, cassava in dried chip or pellet form competes mainly with sorghum or maize, and sometimes barley. On a global level, maize is the principal source of starch.In the cassava-producing countries of Asia, rice, maize and cassava production all increased three to five-fold in the past twenty-five years (Figure 12). Even this dramatic success, however, was not adequate for supplying growing and somewhat more affluent populations. Grain imports, dominated by wheat, maize, rice and soybeans, rose from just over ten million tons in 1960 to 47 million tonnes in 1995, with some decline again in the latter part of the decade during the Asian economic slowdown (Figure 13). However, on a global basis, grain supplies have increased steadily and prices have been declining in inflation-corrected terms. Decline during the last five years has been particularly steep. Prices in 1999 were virtually identical to those in 1985 (uncorrected for inflation) (Figure 14). Projections by IFPRI and FAO indicate that if governments pursue appropriate economic policy and invest in agricultural research, cereal prices will continue their downward trend (Pinstrup-Anderson and Garrett, 1996). The cassava market will, for the most part, parallel these declining commodity prices. Rosegrant and Gerpacio (1997) project a price decline for cassava on world markets of 3.4% by the year 2020. While this is a lesser decline than projected for other roots and tubers, it represents a substantial challenge to growers. Source: FAOSTAT.Prices of both cassava starch and hard pellets exported from Thailand have seen an almost continuous decline since their peaks in mid 1995 (Figure 15). At the end of 2000, the world price of both products was less than 50% of what it was five years earlier. This and the closing of tariff advantages in the EU has led to a steady decline in the price of fresh roots in Thailand (Figure 16). Except for a sudden rise in root prices in early 1998 (due to a shortage of roots at a time when world starch prices temporarily increased dramatically), the fresh roots price declined steadily from a peak of about 2000 baht/tonne in early 1996 to about 850 baht/tonne in Feb 2001. During the past year the price has remained low until late 2001 when it increased to about 1,200 baht/tonne (TTTA newsletter of Dec 15, 2001). At these very low prices, farmers' gross income barely covers the cost of production (Table 5), and they will soon look for alternative crops or other sources of income. Only with the use of better production practices can farmers survive the current low prices for cassava roots (see \"advanced farmers\" in Table 5).Scientific advances underpin development. Four elemental shifts underway will define the agricultural landscape in the next few decades in developing countries: (1) the privatization of knowledge and technology; (2) the biotechnology and information revolutions; (3) the increasing policy focus on low-cost food supplies for urban centers as compared to income-generation and food security concerns for producers; and (4) increasing sector specialization in world markets; the trend toward specialized value-added traits for most commodities.These shifts have fundamental implications for the gap between science in developing and developed countries. Without sweeping agreements on equitable interchange of information, genetic resources and technology between North and South, there will be a continual further eroding of competitiveness in developing countries. The recognition that, in the long term, this gap is detrimental to everyone, should drive new interest in mechanisms to improve investment in research in developing countries. During the next decade the large multi-national agricultural research firms will begin to see the developing countries as a major growth market for biotechnology-derived, IPR-protected technology. However, a turn-around in narrowing the science and technology gap that exists between developed and developing country capacity in science is not yet on the horizon.Subsistence farming requires virtually no infrastructure --no need for purchased inputs, and no need for highways for reaching markets. Commercial agriculture, on the other hand, depends heavily on infrastructure. Rapid economic expansion and urbanization have outstripped the capacity of existing infrastructure, and created serious impediments to further investments and growth. Insufficient electricity generation capacity, outdated and inadequate telecommunications facilities, poor roads and inefficient ports are the most crucial infrastructure problems.Purchased inputs for agriculture are for the most part available, but may not be used on cassava because of other constraints. There is little likelihood of major investment in infrastructure aimed solely at supporting cassava development, but the general development of the region will bring collateral benefits to growers, processors and consumers. The Thai cassava industry maintains a competitive edge over its neighbors because of earlier investments in processing facilities, roads and harbor infrastructure.  There are several fundamental issues surrounding development strategies that exploit marginal lands, both from the economic and environmental vantage points. Although less-favored areas make up only about 24% of the total land area in developing countries, they contain more than 36% of all the rural poor. The largest share of these people, 263 million, live in Asia. In the past, governments and donors adopted a strategy of investment in high-potential areas, since by definition, these generate more agricultural output and higher economic growth at lower cost. Even with these strategies, however, population growth and pressure on the environment have continued to worsen in less favored areas. A consensus is now evolving that critical investment in these areas is socially necessary, economically viable, and imperative for reversing serious land degradation.Cassava can be a key component within this strategy. The comparative advantage that the crop has here is quite strong, but there are trends that could change this. First, other crops may begin to offer broader alternatives to cassava farmers. Breeders of several species, especially maize and sorghum, have paid more attention to stress tolerance in the past twenty years. There are certainly practical limits to which breeders can take a given species in adapting it to new environments, but there is also apparently considerable margin for improvement for most crops in stressed environments. This progress could displace cassava from some areas, and perhaps continue to push the crop toward the very poorest soils. The need for effective and economical soil fertility maintenance and erosion control will increase with this trend.Secondly, farmers' increased purchasing power, and technology for soil stabilization, will allow improvement in some areas, from marginal to moderately productive conditions. This would also tend to displace cassava with higher value, more demanding crops. In either scenario, cassava will probably be pushed further toward the very poorest soils, exacerbating the risk of environmental degradation. Clearly, if there are crops that provide better income to growers than cassava, and/or are less of a threat to the environment, these should be encouraged.Most national cassava programs have given research priority to resolving production constraints, especially through varietal improvement, and crop and soil management. This approach evolved from the era of explosive growth in cassava markets, and the need to meet market demand with increased production. As the challenges of marketing cassava products become more acute, and environmental concerns more apparent, programs are shifting the balance of research investment to include both demand and supply factors.In an exercise to quantify constraints on global production, processing and marketing, CIAT surveyed a broad range of scientists and others knowledgeable about the cassava system, for their experience and perspectives (Henry and Gottret, 1996). A followup study (Van Norel, 1997) obtained further information from national programs, intending especially to upgrade information on post-harvest constraints. Table 10 summarizes key information for Asia, with comparison to global estimates. In spite of the rather hypothetical nature of some of these estimates, the relative values across categories of constraints, and across continents, give a tangible basis for prioritizing research. The following sections review the constraints that could be targeted to achieve the greatest economic impact.  Henry and Gottret, 1996. a. Yield potential Intrinsic yield potential of varieties may be the single most important factor limiting yields in Asia (Table 10). The definition of yield potential for cassava needs to be considered within the context of the crop's predominant role in Asia as an upland crop, in poor soils and with irregular rainfall. The CIAT survey specified a moderate level of management inputs, within the reach of most farmers of the region.For the medium-term future (10-15 years), this would rarely include irrigation, with the exception of existing irrigated areas. The definition specifies nutrient use at low to moderate levels, but with most other agronomic practices at optimum levels --land preparation, planting systems (time of planting, stake position, spacing), and weed control. Within these parameters, the analysis suggested a possible 26% yield gain across 89% of the Asian cassava-growing area, or a 24% potential increase over all Asia.Until 15-20 years ago, the germplasm base in Asia was very narrow, with most countries relying on only a handful of varieties. This was undoubtedly one of the principal constraints to improving yield potential. Thailand was the extreme case, where all but a small percentage of area was planted to Rayong 1. Indonesia has reasonably broad diversity, but still narrow in comparison to Latin America. With the establishment of the CIAT Regional Office in Bangkok in 1983, one of the main thrusts has been to increase genetic diversity in the region. Typically, breeders introduce ten to thirty thousand seeds, each genetically distinct, every year from nurseries in Colombia. Even though only a small fraction of this diversity ever reaches farmers' fields, there is little doubt that far more genetic diversity was introduced into Asia in the past twenty-five years than in the previous two hundred.The Thai breeding program has been particularly successful in broadening the genetic base by the introduction of sexual seed from Latin American. Through selection and an intensive crossing program, a large number of new varieties have been developed and released, replacing now almost entirely the traditional variety Rayong 1 (Table 11).  Sarakarn, 2001. b. Soil management Significant constraints from low soil fertility and erosion affect much of Asia's cassava. Nitrogen is frequently the limiting nutrient, in contrast to Latin America, where potassium and phosphorus tend to be more limiting (Howeler, 1995;2002). Fertilizer recommendations have been established on the basis of extensive soil analyses and fertilizer trials. Fertility constraints are as much a function of education and credit availability as the lack of scientific information. In India, China, Vietnam and Thailand, many farmers use small amounts of fertilizer, usually not at economically optimum levels. In Indonesia, associated crops tend to be fertilized, with some residual benefit to cassava. Elsewhere, fertilizer use is very limited except for special situations, such as large commercial plantations. It is estimated that economically optimum use of practices to improve soil fertility could add 22% to current yields across the region, or over ten million tonnes.Limiting soil erosion is a challenge in virtually any system involving annual crops on sloping fields. Cassava has two features that increase this challenge somewhat: it is easy to plant on steep slopes, with minimal land preparation; and it has a relatively slow rate of canopy formation. On the positive side, the long growing season means that the soil is covered by vegetation and is undisturbed over a long period of time once the canopy is established (Howeler et al., 2000). The survey estimated potential yield increases of 0-10% by adoption of erosion control practices. More importantly, erosion control is indispensable for sustaining longer term productivity. c. Crop management On a regional basis, Asia has higher average yields than either Latin America or Africa. Farmers tend to manage their crops intensively, because of high population density and the need to optimize productivity of land. Hence, only modest yield increases can be expected from improving crop management (excluding soil management) in the Asian situation. According to the CIAT survey, quality planting material (stakes) and better weed control could contribute 7-8% each to yield, while optimum land preparation and spacing would provide modest yield improvements of only 3-4% each.Weed control consumes the second highest level of labor input among crop management operations in Asia, from a low of 8 mandays/ha in Thailand to a high of over 200 in Tamil Nadu, India (see Table 4). In general weed control is good; survey results indicate inadequate control in about 37% of area planted, for an overall potential yield increase of about 7%. Most weed control is manual, but herbicide use is increasing in all countries, and is most wide-spread in Thailand. As demand for herbicides grows, agroindustries will find it profitable to develop herbicides targeted more specifically to the cassava plant and cropping systems. Currently herbicides are adapted from other crop systems to cassava, and often have not been adequately researched to optimize their use.A herbicide-resistant cassava could prove highly beneficial to growers. Herbicide resistance, especially to glyphosate, is already incorporated into several crops and is widely used in the United States and Argentina, especially in soybeans and maize. The last few years have seen some increase in consumer concern about food safety and environmental impact for these genetically engineered crops. So it is somewhat uncertain how quickly the technology will spread to other crops, even where there is high potential grower demand.Drought imposes severe constraints on cassava growth and yield in parts of Asia, particularly northeast Thailand, eastern Java, and southern India (especially Tamil Nadu). Survey results indicate a potential yield increase of 9%, through a combination of practical management, and breeding for varietal adaptation. Management can include improving the soil's water-retaining capacity through incorporating organic matter, surface mulching to reduce evaporation, or ridging to capture maximum rainfall. No increase is projected through expansion of area under irrigation.Perhaps the single most striking contrast between cassava production in Asia and elsewhere is the severity of pest and disease constraints. With a few important exceptions, these constraints are very limited in Asia. The Indian cassava mosaic disease, with etiology and symptoms similar to the African strain, occurs exclusively in India. Control is mainly through resistant varieties. The survey estimated a potential medium-term yield increase of 6% within the affected area. This low figure reflects the fact that moderately resistant varieties are already widely used by farmers. Root rots and bacterial blight are endemic in the more humid environments, especially in the Philippines, and the sub-tropics. Root rots can be controlled mainly through management (rotation, land preparation) and bacterial blight through resistance breeding.Among the arthropod pests, only the red spider mite is of broad importance. Its control through host plant resistance or biological control could contribute about 2% to overall yields in Asia. The pest and disease situation will require constant monitoring, since introduction of new pests or pathogens, or changes in cultural practices could set the stage for new yield-reducing outbreaks.The sum of individual components defines a potential yield increase of 96% by moderate alleviation of constraints. Given the existence of technology components to address nearly all these constraints to some degree, it should be possible to test the reality of these figures. The Asia Cassava Research Network has carried out well-managed trials in Asia for almost two decades. While breeding trials are aimed mainly at identifying potential new varieties, the trials also include good soil preparation, optimum plant spacing and weed control, and moderate fertilizer use. Yields of the hybrids, under good management in representative cassava areas, have been two to five times greater than the national average. Most of this increase appears to be from management, since hybrids yielded about 30% more than local varieties, similar to the potential increase projected by the constraints analysis.In the context of the survey, post-harvest constraints do not quite fit into the same analytical scheme as production factors, for projecting yield gains from constraint alleviation. In order to be consistent with units for yield gain, the post-harvest elements are divided into three parts: quality improvements are based on expected price premiums; gains in processing on reduced costs per unit; and gains in marketing on reduction in marketing margins (mainly reducing consumer prices). These estimates have some highly subjective components, and are biased toward the very conservative side.Improved root quality will have the highest overall positive impact on post-harvest constraints (Table 10). Two traits are especially relevant: starch and post-harvest deterioration. Starch content is key to nearly every use of cassava in Asia, and especially the industrial sectors of starch extraction and pellets for animal feed. Raising starch content by breeding is clearly feasible, and has been a major objective of genetic improvement in most programs. Much of the recent success of new varieties in Thailand derives from a higher starch content as compared to the traditional variety, Rayong 1 (CIAT, 1996).Cassava roots normally begin to deteriorate within a few days after harvest. The processing industry has had to develop elaborate systems for coordinating supply of raw material with processing capacity. This has often worked best when roots are converted at the farm or village level to a more stable product, such as dried chips. When fresh roots are delivered to a central factory, many small producers must coordinate their harvests. Even under the best circumstances factories processing fresh roots cannot operate at full capacity throughout the year. Extending the shelf-life of fresh cassava roots could add valuable flexibility to cassava management systems.Currently-known management techniques include refrigeration, paraffin-coating of roots, and treatment with microbial inhibitors, followed by storage in plastic bags. None of these are practical for managing large volumes of roots destined for processing. A genetic approach seems most appropriate, given the ease and low cost of implementation. Longer term, there is reason to believe biotechnology approaches could offer innovative solutions (Wenham, 1995).Cassava thrives in Asia, and particularly in Thailand, because of the ability of growers, entrepreneurs, R&D institutions, and policy-makers to adapt to evolving physical, biological, economic and social environments. Optimizing the role of cassava as a catalyst for development in the coming years will build on these attributes and resources. Strategies revolve around the constraints and opportunities described in preceding sections.There are three broad priority areas for intervention by R&D institutions: (1) stimulating higher demand through market development;(2) adding post-harvest value through process and product development; and (3) improved production systems through technology for increasing production efficiency and profitability. In addition, institutional support, including education of policy-makers, is an umbrella activity covering all these areas. Interventions in production, processing and marketing cannot be undertaken independently --there is continual interaction and feedback among these system components.Sometimes market demand drives product development, and sometimes new products create market opportunities. For either to succeed, products and markets need to develop in coordination.Cassava markets are of two broad types: markets where cassava competes directly with other carbohydrate sources; and markets that make use of the specific traits of cassava. The non-specific markets include animal feed and most of the uses for starch. It is by far the largest current type of market for cassava in Asia. These markets will be driven by macro-economic forces such as growing demand for meat in developing countries, and the ever-widening range of uses for starch. The cassava sector, mainly processors, will need to drive product development for replacement of existing ingredients, including convincing the user that the alternative product is as good, if not better, than that already used.There is a clear need to promote research on markets that exploit cassava's unique starch characteristics. In markets where starch-consuming industries are beginning to use functional ingredients, tremendous market opportunity presents itself. Success depends on the ability of the starch industry to assist the processors in technical issues relevant to application development. This is a strategy with considerable risk, as noted by Ostertag (1996). The technology for starch conversion is well-advanced and evolving rapidly. New technologies will allow native starch from almost any source to be converted to specific market needs, and thus the differential between raw materials tends to disappear. There is, nonetheless, considerable concern about the engineering of microorganisms (for converting starch) that could have unknown consequences in the environment, or the health and environmental effects of chemical modification. With that caveat, there certainly is still some opportunity for developing markets that favor cassava starch, or expanding existing ones. Success will come mainly from partnerships between public R&D institutions and the private sector.A subsistence crop has a very short pathway from production to utilization --it is usually destined either for direct consumption by the producer, or fed to animals to obtain meat, eggs or milk. The global trend in commodity markets is to continually add value to products as consumers increase their economic position. Low-value raw products at the farm level pass a series of transformations, each of which produces income or other value to a particular consumer. In developed countries, even basic food products may be valued at hundreds of times the price received by the farmer for the raw product.Without a tradition of consuming fresh cassava, Asia has been a leader in processing innovations to meet demands of new and changing markets. All of these began at the household and cottage-industry level. At the level of household processing, Indonesia is the leading example of diversity and innovation. Also at the household level, Thailand has fine-tuned chipping and drying to a highly efficient and cost-effective system that gets a high quality product to the market in a timely manner. In Vietnam and China, farmers feed cassava to pigs to obtain a value-added and more marketable product.Animal feed and starch are the principal growth markets for the medium-range future. Both have a very broad range of levels of sophistication --from rudimentary onfarm exploitation to high-tech industries. Across this range, there are interventions that have high potential to benefit the rural poor. The principal need for processing innovations lies in the early stages of product conversion. These are the stages closest to the producer, and more likely to bring benefit to the rural poor. They are the stages where a product is converted to something that is more likely to be used by an already-developed industry. For example, the animal feed industry can very readily use hard cassava pellets in balanced rations. No new technology is required. However, converting fresh roots to hard pellets came from a series of innovations specific to cassava's characteristics. Likewise, the efficient extraction of high quality starch from cassava requires technology specific for cassava, but the use of that starch in any number of industries is often the same as for any other starch. A major focus of cassava R&D institutions should be on innovations that bring additional value to growers.The animal feed export sector, which so much defined the dynamics of the Asian cassava industry for more than twenty years, is still a major force for economic development. It is, however, a market that will require every innovation and efficiency just to retain current market share, because of the increasing competitiveness of coarse grains on world markets. No country of Asia is basing its plans for the cassava sector on dramatically expanded possibilities for export of cassava pellets.Demand for animal feed will continue rapid expansion in developing countries. It is a growth sector for which several cassava-growing countries should be able to create viable internal industries. These industries may be successful across a range of scales of operation --from rudimentary on-farm feeding of pigs to large, intensive poultry operations. There is, however, as in most industries, a continual move toward larger operations that exploit economies of scale. Domestic use of cassava roots for production of animal feed in Thailand is presently minimal, mainly because of the absence of a relatively cheap source of protein to mix with the roots to produce an adequately balanced ration. Recent research at Khon Kaen University, Thailand, has shown that chopped and dried cassava shoots (leaves, petioles and non-lignified stems) contain up to 25% crude protein; its use as a supplement in dairy and beef cattle has given excellent results (Wanapat, 2001). Similarly, ensiled cassava leaves mixed with dry cassava root powder has given very good results in chicken, pig and dairy cattle feeding trials in Vietnam (Le Duc Ngoan, 2001), and with pigs in southern China (Liu Jian Ping and Zhuang Zhong Tang, 2001). The animal feed market will thrive with or without a cassava component. For cassava to reach its full potential participation, however, will require aggressive R&D input, mainly to find ways of economically growing, harvesting and drying cassava leaves, so these can be mixed with dry cassava chips to form pellets of balanced feed for specific animal species.The animal feed market for cassava is a very mature market. The potential for additional market share lies in cost reductions, and added value by way of conversions that target specific markets. For example, the pelleting industries could develop capacity to mix complete rations, or even begin contracting the growing of chickens or pigs.Because of the technical level of the starch and starch derivatives industries, there are possibilities for adding value at the farm level for this sector, by improving the level and consistency of root quality. The starch industry will contribute to rural development mainly through a higher demand for raw roots, and premiums for starch content and quality. Research should continue to focus on pre-and post-harvest crop management that meets the increasingly demanding standards of industry.Markets for flour substitution seem to be more difficult to penetrate on a large scale. Quality and supply are very critical. There has been a tendency for demand to fluctuate too widely to interest major commitment from processors. This market needs continued research because of its high potential if price-competitiveness, high quality, and constant supply can be assured.In broad terms, producers have three possible alternatives to increase their net income from growing cassava: (1) increase yields, to reduce per-unit production costs; (2) reduce costs, while maintaining production levels; or, (3) increase the value of the product offered for sale while keeping costs and production levels the same.Of course these are not mutually exclusive pathways, and each category has a number of possible variations. Successful crop technology in this century has been overwhelmingly based on the first of these --on use of inputs to increase yields. The green revolution set the tone for crop improvement strategies, with emphasis on total system output. Consumers have been the greatest beneficiaries, with more abundant food at lower prices. It is a strategy that is eminently sensible in a world of food shortages, where increased supply has high social priority. The developing world is now a mosaic of food shortages and food surpluses, and a monolithic strategy for increasing agricultural production is clearly not a universal goal. In Asia's comparatively mature market economy, cassava producers can benefit economically from expanded areas of production, lowered production costs, higher productivity per unit of production cost, higher market value, or value-added features. They can benefit nutritionally both from the greater purchasing power of higher income, and from nutritional enhancements to cassava itself. Indirectly, they can benefit nutritionally from an increase in production that permits feeding cassava to animals. Less tangibly, technology provides avenues for lifestyle improvements such as less arduous physical labor inputs, or more time to pursue education or leisure.Farming practices are inextricably linked to environmental resources. Characteristics of the environment set limits on the types of agriculture that are economically feasible; and in turn agriculture can enhance or degrade the environment where it is practiced. Tradition, education, regulation, and economics all influence a farmer's attitude and relationship with the land. Generally, education and regulation can be applied successfully to environmental stewardship only if the economics are favorable. On the other hand, farm profitability is not in itself necessarily an incentive for adopting practices that improve the environment.This interlacing of attitude and economics is a complex target for R&D institutions. Often the technology for preserving the environment is not complex, but there are inadequate economic incentives.The greatest returns to research investment in crop technology development should be for interventions that lower the very high labor inputs into cassava, increase yield, and increase starch content.(1) Agronomic practices. Crop management is already more intensive in Asia than elsewhere. Rearrangements of existing practices or resources (i.e., if no new external inputs are applied) probably offer limited potential for improved productivity or profitability. For example, changes in stake planting position or plant density normally offer little advantage, unless in conjunction with another major system modification. There are good possibilities for increasing profitability with management in the areas of fertilizer application and efficient weed control. There are, nonetheless, substantial environmental concerns with both these inputs, and these must be addressed as part of any technology development. The fact is, however, that cassava will have great difficulty competing in the marketplace with crops where high efficiencies of production are achieved with intensive inputs, unless some of those same inputs are applied to cassava.The economic response of cassava to fertilizer application is well-established (Howeler, 2001a). The constraints to increased use are socio-economic rather than technical. Farmers usually do not have cash reserves that can be tied up for a full year, between planting and harvest. Commercial or government-supported credit are not common. Nonetheless, most farmers now have experience with purchase and use of fertilizer on rice, and translating this to use with cassava should not be an insurmountable obstacle when the economic return is favorable.(2) Mechanization. Cassava is still a very labor-intensive crop for most growers. Labor productivity has not been a major goal for cassava research, often based on the assumption that public institutions should be wary of technology that displaces labor in situations where underemployment is already high.In any case, mechanization is typically difficult for cassava --economically because of small landholdings, and physically because of cultivation on slopes and uneven terrain, or intercropping. While no-til systems have had limited success in cassava, there may be more potential for zone tillage systems, where a type of deep-penetrating tool is pulled through the soil only along the row to be planted. This leaves nearly all the residue on the surface for erosion control, while creating a tilled, aerated zone for rainwater penetration and root development.Cassava has moved through three mega-phases of genetic improvement, characterized by a focus on: (1) yield potential; (2) production efficiency under conditions of environmental stress; and (3) incorporating value-added traits with (1) and ( 2). This latter phase is in the initial stages, and will probably define cassava genetic improvement in Asia for the next several years.Many Thai farmers have had considerable exposure to new varieties through various promotion channels. Elsewhere, the practice of introducing and evaluating varieties through extensive on-farm trials is less common. The initial tests by farmers that prove the value of a new variety can translate into a continued, long-term interest in variety evaluation, and thereby greatly simplify the job of the extension service. If the momentum for adopting new varieties grows strong enough, there could eventually be motivation to bring the private sector into the picture to develop and sell varieties. This will be difficult, however, given the ability of farmers to save their own seed from one planting to the next.The bottom line is that public support for cassava breeding will need to remain strong. The ongoing success of new varieties is significant. This will generate widespread interest in accelerating the pace of variety development, and in expanding the options in terms of varietal characteristics offered. Response to these demands will only be possible with continued, and increased, investments in research.Breeding offers possibilities of adding value to the products that growers move to the marketplace. A prime example is development of the high starch varieties developed jointly between national programs and CIAT. Although higher starch varieties were available early in Thailand's breeding program, the real impetus for their adoption and further development did not come until industry began paying premiums for this trait. The time is now ripe to move into more advanced value-added traits -because the diversification and specialization of industry create a demand, and also because the technology for targeted genetic modification of cassava is on the horizon. Genetic transformation and regeneration will open the door for applying technologies that are already routine in other crops (insect resistance, herbicide resistance), but more importantly for mapping a future for cassava that meets its specific production and market needs and opportunities. Partnerships involving all sectors will be the key to identifying appropriate research goals, as well as funding and executing the research. Some of the areas with highest potential to provide broad benefits through value-added traits are genetic modification of starch characteristics, tailored to specific markets; and increased postharvest root storability by genetic means.Viability of the cassava sector in Asia has been very much the result of both private and public interests. Process, product and internal market development has been primarily in the hands of the private sector. Export development, on the other hand, has had very strong governmental support. While there are some notable examples of private sector participation in support to cassava research, the movement in this direction has been very slow. There is no doubt that in Asia cassava will continue as a basic energy source for food, feed and industry. If public support to research were to decline substantially, there may even be private funding to take on some of the research needs. Certainly, though, the private sector will have a very different development agenda, which would likely include lower priority for directing benefits to the rural poor. Social goals such as food security, poverty alleviation, equity and environmental protection, do not normally attract large sums of private sector investment. On the other hand, private enterprise seems to have a far better track record than does government, of successfully establishing efficient and profitable business practices. It is apparent that the potential synergy between public and private sectors is worth developing further.R&D institutions can have an important role in policy analysis, as an educational resource for policy-makers who need to have access to comprehensive and unbiased information. With few exceptions, cassava producers have little political clout to influence policy that affects their ability to earn a livelihood. Development organizations can take the role of empowering the cassava sector to effectively present its interests before policymakers. Farmers' organizations can be highly effective policy lobbyists, but these are still not common. Industry and commodity organizations are often well-positioned to speak for the interests of growers, processors and marketers. They usually recognize the need for a healthy total system, for any one sector to benefit. Prominent examples of such groups are the various Thai trade associations. Their principal activities are in the realm of industry promotion and trade, but they also promote supply-side benefits such as training of cassava farmers and the distribution of new varieties by the Thai Tapioca Development Institute (TTDI).Cassava networks have not been active in policy debate, but this is a role for which they have some unique qualifications. The Asia Cassava Research Network, as the only one with a strictly regional focus, is in the best position to take on policy issues. While an international network would have limited direct voice in national policy debates, it is wellpositioned to provide individual members with information and technical backup.Market competition is becoming the defining trend that drives success in agriculture. Competition, brought about in large part by the global trend of more open markets, is almost universally welcomed by consumers, who benefit from more choices and lower prices. But it is a double-edged sword for growers. Market alternatives may be greatly expanded, but successfully entering any of them may require substantial adaptation in production, processing and distribution systems. In particular, cost efficiencies become critical, along with quality and timeliness of production. This can be a major challenge for cassava, when it confronts a commodity like maize, with a long history of global commerce and a massive research support system. On the other side of the equation, more demanding markets also open opportunities for specialized products outside the mainstream commodities trade. Cassava has particular possibilities in snack food and specialized starch markets, where it does not compete directly with other energy sources.Perhaps the most profound lesson of the past is the critical importance of integrated development of production, processing and marketing components of the system. There are now several models where this type of broad integration has shown both some of the potential pitfalls and the benefits of an integrated approach.The urgency of finding solutions to today's problems in food and agriculture is clear, and the tools to accomplish this are at hand. The greatest scientific advances in recent years have often been the outcome of partnerships --between public and private concerns, among countries sharing common problems, and among thousands of motivated people sharing complementary skills and information. Communications technology now allows breaking many of the seemingly intractable barriers to developing effective partnershipsacross geographic distance, across professions and institutions, and across belief systems. Unless connections are made between the best of science and a general benefit to all of society, we are investing poorly in our future.","tokenCount":"9984"}

data/part_5/0214139638.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"487a79cb63d9df5c0d1b70e99abe44e8","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/2a770e97-3339-457e-8b43-f767e80c8c78/retrieve","id":"-611825415"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"2e9938ae-41ea-4775-9f8a-eed2e4623e7a","pagecount":"2","content":"P251 -Reducing agro-food induced GHG emissions through effective FLW reducing strategies Description of the innovation: The ACE calculator describes all activities in post-harvest operations that induce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Emissions associated to lost produce (including agricultural production emissions) are allocated to the food products that stay in the distribution chain. Scenario comparison shows effects of interventions on total losses and GHG emissions. Different from existing tools like CoolFarm tool this method is unique in level of detail of postharvest chain description, essential to analyze postharvest intervention effects. New Innovation: No Innovation type: Research and Communication Methodologies and Tools Stage of innovation: Stage 3: available/ ready for uptake (AV) Geographic Scope: Global Number of individual improved lines/varieties: <Not Applicable>","tokenCount":"119"}

data/part_5/0245711704.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"a972c014769823fb18e3150d18394826","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/1add2301-18ea-4576-8384-4579fe4b45ae/retrieve","id":"-633323950"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"34aeeed7-ea73-48e2-a021-ebf659b16abb","pagecount":"60","content":"Integration • Well integrated to ILRI Livestock & Fish value chain project (small holder pig value chain development project, SPVCD) • Value chain assessment only started in November 2012 after sites were selected under SPVCD • In the first year: rapid integrated assessment of food safety and nutrition in 3 districts in Uganda, 4 complementary studies, 4 postgraduate projects, 1 internRapid integrated assessment of food safety (and nutrition)• 24 participatory rural appraisals with pig producers• 10 participatory rural appraisals with pig producers as consumers• 27 focus group discussions with mothers of young children• 2 female and 2 male facilitators trained in the food safety assessment tool -Swine fever (Musujja) -Worms -Sarcoptic mange• In villages:-Lice• In villages (Masaka only):-Biting flies• In villages (Kamuli only):-Diamond skin disease  • Yes, driven by festivals:• Christmas • Easter• Uganda Martyr's Day (June 3)• Independence Day (October 9)• seasonal weather changes:• Dry season = season of swine disease outbreaks• Seasonal cash availability: Are pig feeds competing with human food?• Not in the assessment sites, even though feeds were identified as a major constraint for producing more pigs • Farmers try and sell stock after fattening them in \"times of plenty\" (during/shortly after the rains)• kitchen scraps (peels from cassava or potatoes, matooke or posho leftovers) • Tubers (Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, cassava) • Fruits (avocado, sweet bananas, jackfruit, mango, papaya)Reasons for eating (more) pork?• Money: \"The rich eat more because they can eat whatever they want whenever they want\"• \"Eating pork clears the skin\" (Mukono)• \"Eating pork (and bone marrow) makes strong bones\" (Masaka)• \"Eating pork cures measles in children caused by eating goats meat\" (Kamuli)Reasons for not eating pork?• Religion:• Muslims; SDA; Born again (Masaka): \"pigs are for demons\"• Traditional religions:• Abaswezi (Kamuli) don't eat eggplant, fish and pork • Abaana Banabawanuka (Kamuli) don't eat pork • Bamasiya (Kamuli) don't eat anything that produces blood (vegetarians?)• Beliefs:• Pregnant women must not eat pork or \"the child might have a mouth like a pig\" (Masaka) ","tokenCount":"329"}

data/part_5/0258365262.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"d9e4f1f5798e642acebf1fbcc94d1c69","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/9873042e-7ddf-4dd1-88a9-351d2ea6a9c0/retrieve","id":"1712758421"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"d6c7e6c4-d607-4611-b5a2-7231dd13dbf0","pagecount":"42","content":"Standard methods are needed to collect data to evaluate the performance of agricultural systems. Standardization allows comparisons across systems, and potentially the extrapolation of recommendations to similar development domains. The Integrated Modelling Platform for Mixed Animal Crop Systems (IMPACT, Herrero et al., 2007) is a data collection protocol and computer software tool designed to gather minimum datasets in smallholder crop-livestock systems. The protocol collects information ranging from household composition to crop and livestock production to household food consumption and household assets. Although IMPACTS's datasets are detailed to conduct a wide range of crop-livestock systems analysis, the data collection on the field proved to be time and resources demanding. The protocol works in monthly time steps i.e., most of the data is collected per month, thus it takes considerable time to complete an interview. The printed forms comprise over 30 different templates that resemble the screens in the software, and although this could speed up data entry, its use on the field for data collection often tends to be inoperative.In 2011 CCAFS commissioned to ILRI the task of assessing the possibilities for simplifying IMPACT to carry out a characterization across the 15 CCAFS benchmark sites (Table 1). The objective of this project called 'IMPACTlite' was to modify IMPACT to be able to collect household-level data detailed enough to capture within-site variability on key performance and livelihood indicators that could be used for a range of analysis including the modelling of impact of adaptation and mitigation strategies on livelihoods, food security and the environment. A team composed of agronomists, economists, computer, environmental, and social scientists modified and tested the new tool in a number of sites. The changes implemented to the tool are reported in Quiros et al. (2011). In this report we describe the steps undertaken in the implementation of the surveys using IMPACTlite in the IGPs, the progress achieved, and next steps planned for 2013.The surveys were implemented across the 15 CCFAS sites (Table 1) starting from February until December 2012. The details of the procedures for the implementation can be found in the IMPACTlite Training Manual (Rufino et al. 2012). In brief, the steps were: 1) Gathering secondary data for each research grid, 2) Definition of agricultural production systems, 3) Villages selection, 4) Generating village information: creating a list of households, 5) Selecting households from a village list, 6) Replacing selected households, and 7) Implementing the survey. The IMPACTlite team at ILRI gathered secondary information for each of the research grids, with assistance from the CCAFS Science officers. Most of this information was gathered during the implementation of the Household Baseline surveys.We enclose to this report the training manual of IMPACTlite and a sample questionnaire used in Vaishali, India. The first step in preparing the household survey in the four research grids was to establish a list of all villages within these grids and to collect some basic village-level information. Unfortunately, secondary data was not available in sufficient detail or quality. Also, the previous base-line survey did not provide village lists with geographic identification. Therefore, a member of the survey team set out initially to compile a list of all villages, record gps co-ordinates and fill short (1-page) questionnaire form on village characteristics: Village identification, population size, land and irrigation resources, ranking of livestock and cropping activities by importance to village. For this a motor-bike was hired and the grid area thoroughly combed. During this exploratory phase initial results were passed back to the office and village locations were compared to Google Earth images. Visible settlements missing in the initial lists were discussed and added were appropriate.An important issue at this stage was the definition of \"village\". In India, the oldest and bottom-level administrative unit is the \"revenue village\". As the name implies this has been established for tax reasons and is therefore more linked to land than to population. Therefore, some revenue villages don't contain any settlements while others contain several which don't form any social unit. In addition, settlement patterns differ greatly throughout the Indo-Gangetic Plains. While in areas with relatively late colonization, as in Haryana and Punjab, villages are comparatively large and well defined, other areas which had had high population densities for centuries, as in Bihar, settlement patterns are much more dispersed. Thus, we developed an own approach to defining a settlement as a village: Wherever a settlement has an own distinctive name it is regarded as a village. However, if a settlement is only regarded as part of a larger village without an own name it is regarded as a hamlet (tola). Often such hamlets are home to a certain community and are known only by the community name. In Nepal, local administrative units have been consistently organized into village development councils (VDC). Each VDC consists of 9 wards, representing small hamlets.For sample selection purposes within this study, a VDC is a useful unit. It is small enough to enable its inhabitants to know of one another and function as a social unit. In Bangladesh settlement patterns resembled the Bihar situation and we applied the same procedure by defining \"villages\" according to naming practices. It took about two weeks to establish a complete village list with the accompanying basic data at each research site. Google Earth images of all four research grids with village locations are included in the annex (section 8).The identification of production systems within research grids is based on the village census data (see 2.1). Respondents (one group per village) were asked to rank crops (including aquaculture) by their importance for the three main cropping seasons as well as livestock (no seasonal differentiation). Here, only count values (number of villages reporting specific rank or rank aggregate) are reported. These results were used to decide on whether to define one or several clearly demarcated production systems within the respective grids. In case of two or more production systems, villages are classified according to production systems and households are sampled separately within each production system class. This ensures a statistically useful sample of households for each production system.The first indication of dominant crop production system (including aquaculture) is whether a specific crop (or crop combination) is mentioned as rank1 in more than one season. Here, paddywheat is defined as assigning rank1 to paddy in kharif (rainy season) or summer and to wheat in rabi (winter). All other specific land-uses are defined as dominant when showing rank1 in more than one season. Villages where none of the four specific cropping systems dominate are classified as mixed-cropping. Vaishali, Rupandehi and Karnal are clearly dominated by paddy-wheat. Thus, only one production systems is recognized in these research grids. In Bagerhat, paddy dominates most villages. However, about a sixth of all villages see aquaculture as most important land use activity. Six out of these seven villages are located in the northern part of the grid. However, paddy dominated and mixed villages are also located there. In addition, paddy is of considerable importance also in the aquaculture dominated villages: 4 out these 7 villages include paddy 3 times within the nine ranking questions on crop production (rank 1-3 over three seasons), 4 villages mention paddy twice and 1 village once. On the other hand, aquaculture also frequently appears as important land use in the paddy dominated villages. Therefore, also within the Bagerhat research grid only one production system (paddy-aquaculture) is recognized.In Vaishali, Rupandehi and Karnal livestock is dominated by dairy production. In Vaishali and Rupandehi all three ranks are common to most villages in the grid; Vaishali: 1 st dairy, 2 nd small ruminants, 3 rd poultry; Rupandehi: 1 st dairy, 2 nd small ruminants, 3 rd draft animals. However, in Karnal the most common combination (1 st dairy, 2 nd small ruminants, 3 rd draft animals) accounts for only about 30% of villages in the grid. In Bagerhat it appears that both dairy and poultry production are similarly important with small ruminants coming third. In all four research grids only one production system was found to be important. In Vaishali, Rupandehi and Karnal this is paddy-wheat with dairy animals while in Bagerhat this is paddyaquaculture with dairy and poultry.After having determined that only one production system was to be considered within each research grid, the agreed sample of 20 villages was randomly selected from each grid.For this, a random number was assigned to each village. Villages located on the grid border were excluded. Similarly, the 10% smallest villages (by number of households) and the 10% largest villages were excluded in order to avoid having the sample influenced by extreme cases. A very small village of less than 20 households for example would often consist of only a certain type of households while very large villages of perhaps more than 1000 households would already have characteristics of a small town. In Karnal all identified villages were included as only 19 villages were finally considered.After having selected the 20 sample villages in each research grid a household census was conducted in these villages. For this a suitable village person was identified (e.g. school leaver, student). This person then listed all households within the own village and collected basic characterizing data for each household: Household identification (household head name, father's name, village name, hamlet name), household head (age, gender), household size, land (ownership and cultivation) and livestock. In general the completion of the household census took 5 to 7 days for each village. The village enumerator was paid by listed household after checking for data quality.Subsequent to the completion of the household census lists, the data were entered by members of the survey team and additional data entry staff. The total number of households in the 20 villages selected in each grid varied considerably by site: In Vaishali the household census includes 7953 households, in Rupandehi 2251 households, in Karnal 7270 households and in Bagerhat the household census lists 6250 households. Because the decision to move the research site in the Upper Gangetic Plains from Sangrur (Punjab) to Karnal (Haryana) was taken late, a household census was also performed in Sangrur. Here 6807 households are listed. The differences in village size between the village census and the household census data are not negligible. Partly, this may be due to differences in including or excluding hamlets. However, they also underline the inherent level of accuracy of village level data collection.Following the implementation of the household census, the household sample for the household survey was selected. For this, households not cultivating any land and not keeping any livestock (large or small ruminants) were excluded as they don't have any direct involvement in agriculture. Then, each household was assigned a random number and ranked by this number. The first 200 households were selected for the survey. The second were identified as replacement households in cases households were not available during the survey period. Villages were not considered during the household selection process as it is not assumed that \"village\" will be an important factor during the analysis process, which would justify balancing the number of households per village. Also, travel distances within the research grid are very limited, so that it is not necessary to ensure a minimum number of selected households per villages in order to simplify survey logistics.The initial training of the survey team for India was conducted in Patna (Bihar) during the first week of July 2012. The team consists of two supervisors, four enumerators and two data entry operators. The two supervisors shared collecting preparatory data (identifying villages, village census, household census) and leading the survey teams during the household survey. The same survey team conducted the household survey in Vaishali (08/07/2012 to 05/08/2012), Rupandehi (09/09/2012 to 08/10/2012) and Karnal (13/10/2012 to 10/11/2012), as Hindi is sufficiently spoken in all these sites. Data entry was started in parallel to the actual survey at the survey site in order to discover data issues as soon as possible and to speed up the overall data collection phase.For Bagerhat, where only Bengali is spoken, a new survey team was established with the help of a local NGO (SMKK). Their training was conducted by Dhiraj Singh at Bagerhat. Madhuresh, one of the survey supervisors, was also able to join the team for the final training and for the survey to ensure consistency and data quality. The two data entry operators also travelled to Bagerhat to improve data quality by entering data during the survey process. Currently, the survey is on-going. It was completed the first week of January 2013, cleaned dataset available by end of January.Nyando and Makueni (Kenya)The process of identification of production systems in Nyando and Wote involved: i) analysis of satellite high-resolution images, ii) transect drives through the grid, iii) group interviews, iv) individual interviews to key-experts, v) household interviews. Three production systems were identified based on land cover, production orientation and land use intensity. Verification was conducted on the ground through key stakeholders which involved officers from the Ministry of agriculture, Chiefs, opinion leaders, local farmers and own observation.The three dominant production systems identified after verification on the ground were for Nyando: a) Crop-livestock with free-grazing local breeds (maize and sorghum based), b) Sugarcanemaize with cross-bred cattle, c) Dairy-perennials-maize based (tea, Napier grass). The three systems were delineated spatially. A list of villages was developed for each system, villages falling in the buffer or transition zones were filtered out. To cover variability within the larger production system eight villages were randomly selected. The other two systems were randomly assigned six villages each. Within each village ten households were randomly selected from the household lists for the survey. In Wote, the team identified two main production systems: i) crop-livestock mixed with local sheep, ii) crop-livestock mixed with dairy.The village definition used is that described in the training manual. The village list was built with the help of the village elders who are in charge of various villages of which they know the boundaries. The household list was developed by using the list provided by the village elder as a starting point but verification was done by going through the village from one household to the other by numbering them, we found out additional household within some villages.Based on the three systems identified the areas where they fall were marked. Most of the systems were falling within sub-location of which the boundaries are well known by the chief who are governing the areas, we used the same boundaries. It come out that the first system covered a larger area than the rest. A list of villages was developed in each system and villages falling in the buffer zones were eliminated from the list as they were impossible to distinguish actual system on them. Due to the wide coverage of system one it was randomly assigned 8 villages in order to cover the heterogeneity within the system. The other two systems were randomly assigned six villages each. Within each village ten household was randomly picked for the survey. The same process was used in Makueni site.In Definition of production systems in Lushoto was supported by the use of a satellite image of the grid. All villages in the grid were identified. After this exercise, the team conducted an inventory of farming activities at each village engaging the village authorities and extension staff. The farming activities inventory was based on the history and current farming systems. Activities considered were food crops, cash crops, livestock keeping, agroforestry and horticultural crops. Finally, and on the basis of the activities and their frequencies the grid was classified into three production systems namely: i) Production system 3 includes the uplands experiencing three rain seasons namely; short, intermediate (muluwati in kisambaa), and the long rains. This production system is dominated by maize and beans, fruits trees, some vegetables and some perennials (coffee, tea and woodlots). Majority of the householders keep crosses of exotic and local zebu cattle and some goats. ii) Production system 2 is characterized by maize and beans with cassava and some horticultural crops. This householders practice zero grazing with crosses of exotic and local cattle breeds. iii) Production system 1 is different from 2 and 3 in that householders only keep indigenous species of livestock.The village list was built using the original list from the CCAFS Baseline survey block during the first CCAFS HHS baseline survey which basically was met the program protocol to identify, the villages, the households and lastly the 20 randomly households. In this case, the villages were listed from the same grid but grouped according to the existing production systems within the block. The household list was built through the village household list prepared by the village authorities for the old (7) villages and verified by the CCAFS before conducting the HHBS. In new villages the same procedure was used. What was new here is that we requested the old village's authority to update their household list and from there we followed the same procedure of randomizing them and came up with households to be respondents.Process followed to identify production systems: The team went through each village and consulted the village government and extension agents and we were satisfied with the information and of course, the team especially the enumerators and the site coordinator had enough experience on the farming systems in the district as well as in the CCAFS grid. Determining the boundaries on the ground was more difficult but we based on the government boundaries or village boundaries to establish those three dominant production systems in the block of 10 km x 10 km.Training of enumerators and testing of the questionnaires was conducted by Joash Mango from ICRAF. The survey was finalized by the end of July 2012, and the data was delivered by September 2012.The Borana household survey was conducted in 20 village clusters in Yabello and Arero woreda for 20 consecutive days; starting from September 18 -October 7, 2012. It involved five enumerators and one field supervisor. The four pastoralist associations (PAS) out of five (PAS) inside the 30 x 30 blocks were selected and only one village namely Fuldawa from Arero, which is located at the extreme corner of the block and inaccessible was deliberately excluded. Each cluster was chosen based on shared community enclosure which is owned, managed and utilized exclusively by the household in the cluster. The sampling frame was constructed using a total of 1150 households' list obtained from 20 clusters of the 4 Pastoral Associations (PAs). The sampling frame included 397 households from Denbela Saden, 387 from Dikale, 269 from Alona, and 97 from Gada PAs. The settlements pattern and the clusters in Arero were more scattered over a vast area than the settlements in Yabello, which are much more consolidated in specific areas. The households in the sample clusters were listed using key informants, elders, local development agent and PA leaders.Ten households per village were selected randomly. A random access table was used to select households from the list. Only few replacements were made in 25% of the selected 20 clusters. This was done based on satisfactory reasons and confirmations for absence of the selected respondents from the locality. Key informants from among the herders, elders, PA leaders and government pastoral development and landuse and administration experts were used to define the production system prevailing in the study block. A consensus was reached by most of the key informants that there is only one production system that is a pastoral production system; hence the block was categorized under pastoral system. This is in line with the results of the household baseline survey of CCAFS carried to characterize the block. Two hundred households 10 from each cluster were interviewed under a single production system. All the croplands were small size, opportunistic, and fragmented subsistence type virtually with no use of inputs at all.The purpose of the survey was well introduced to cluster leaders before listing households, sampling and data collection. Once confidentiality issue ensured respondents became fully cooperative and expressed their willingness to participate in the survey. Time was taken to describe the objectives of the research and respondents' willingness, feelings and reactions were assessed before questionnaires were filled out. This helped out the trustworthiness of information obtained. No one has shown unwillingness to participate. There were few replacements made because of satisfactory reason for the absence of the sample households from the area during the survey. Randomly selected replacements are made as per the procedures.Five enumerators and 1 field supervisor were involved to cover one cluster in a day. The training of enumerators and testing of the questionnaires was conducted by Mariana Rufino and Solomon Desta in August 2012. Trained enumerators were used to fill out the questionnaires throughout the survey. Each enumerator filled 40 questionnaires in twenty days. The questionnaire typically lasted in average between 2.30 -3.00 hours with each respondent. Enumerators are supervised during the data collection using available time frame. The mobile phone helped further to communicate and troubleshoot problems encountered by the enumerators at times when the supervisor is engaged in GPS recording and other activities. Each day the questionnaires filled were checked for completeness, clarity and consistency and discussed with enumerators each morning before meeting respondents for data collection. A minimum of 45 -60 minutes per day is spent each morning with enumerators before survey began.Major challenges encountered: i) inaccessibility of some of the clusters due to poor access roads, ii) the extended unusual short rain blocked road access to some of the cluster villages, iii) villages especially in Arero were scattered over a wider area and that made travel distances between households cumbersome for taking GPS coordinates. The survey was successfully finished in October 2012, and the data was delivered in November 2012.To determine production systems in the two grids in Uganda pre-determined GPS coordinates were used to demarcate the 10 by 10 kilometer area by overlaying the coordinates on shape file of Uganda parishes in ArcView GIS 3.3 software. After identification of the parishes that lie within two grids, we approached district officers at the respective agricultural production departments to brief them on the research we were to carry out and for possible important contacts. There was information at the district level about the farming system (crops and livestock produced) but too general. More precise information regarding farming systems at the village level was obtained from parish leaders and village local council leaders. In addition, transect walks across the grids were carried out to complement on information obtained from local and village leaders.The Hoima grid comprises four parishes: Buraru, Bulindi, Kibugubya in Hoima district and Kahembe in Masindi district. The householders from the three parishes of Hoima district are mainly cultivating maize, beans, cassava, bananas and a few keep local indigenous livestock. Ten villages were randomly selected from which one hundred farmers were randomly chosen, ten from each village. In Kahembe Parish (Masindi) maize, beans, banana, cassava, sugarcane and few local livestock are the major farming activities. This parish is in close proximity to the Kinyara sugar factory so sugarcane production is taking root in the area. In this parish there were 7 villages from which 100 farmers were randomly sampled from the village list. These two situations in the Hoima block were first treated as two different production systems with sugarcane production being the differentiating factor. One hundred farmers were interviewed in each of the systems however upon randomly selection of farmers in the system which has sugarcane only around 20% of the farmers interviewed had sugarcane. Therefore, the Hoima grid was treated as a single production system since sugarcane farmers in the parish were not enough to qualify as a different production system.In the Rakai grid, six parishes fall within the grid: Kiyovu, Kasensero, Bitabago, Buyamba, Butiti and Byakabanda. Across all the villages, there were two major crop components, the perennial crops (banana and coffee) and annuals (mainly maize, beans, cassava, groundnuts and sweet potatoes).Farmers in this grid also keep local livestock like cattle, goats, poultry although in small numbers. Therefore, one production system was identified in this grid: Coffee-banana with annuals and few local livestock. A total of twenty eight villages were randomly selected from which 200 farmers were randomly selected from the village lists.The training of enumerators and testing of questionnaires took place in March 2012, and conducted by Mariana Rufino, Carlos Quiros, Silvia Silvestri (ILRI) and Joash Mango (ICRAF). This was the second training of enumerators of the whole project. The purpose of having such a large team was to agree on the contents of the training so that we could split responsibilities for other sites. Josh mango came back to Uganda to support the start of the survey in June 2012. Surveys were completed by September 2012, and the data delivered in December 2012. The local team at Uganda encountered difficulties with data entry, so finally data was entered at the Kisumu office of ICRAF under the supervision of Joash Mango.Kaffrine (Senegal)The list of villages for the Kaffrine grid was established. There were some difficulties as some names on the list from CCAFS did not correspond exactly to the names of villages they had. Two villages from the list of CCAFS were not encountered in the actual list of villages: Moula Ndiaga and Sare Lamou. The identification of the production systems in Kaffrine was based on a consultation with the key services active in the region (Agriculture, Water and Forests, Ecology, ISRA, ANCAR) and a series of documents: i) a soil map of Senegal, showing the areas with crop and livestock production, ii) an hydrologic map of the region of Kaffrine (\"Direction de la Gestion et de la planification des Ressources en Eau\" -DGPRE), iii) a map showing the forest resources (\"Centre de Suivi Ecologique\" -CSE), iv) a map of Kaffrine, v) the local development plans of Malem Hodar and of the rural community of Kahi, vi) a document from ISRA on the characterization and the typology of farms in the region of Kaffrine.At first, only one system had been identified by the local agricultural services: a cropping system with a biennial rotation groundnut/cereal. But some more discussion allowed identifying 3 production systems for the block (Fig. 5 Annex): a) Agriculture and forestry (31 villages), where a development of some agroforestry activities can be noticed with the proximity of classified forests, in addition to the cereal and groundnut cultivation (Zone 1); b) Mixed crop-livestock system (30 villages), in a more pastoral area (Zone 2); c) Crops and vegetable production (62 villages), where a NGO (World Vision) drilled wells (Zone 3).The list of villages for each production system was established. Villages in transitions zones between two systems were excluded from the lists (6, 4, and 11 villages for the production systems a, b and c, respectively). Villages were randomly selected for each production system for a total of 20 villages, with 7, 6, and 7 villages for the production system a, b and c, respectively. One village (Keur Sandao) of the production system b (mixed crop-livestock systems) has been replaced as it had less than 4 households: most of the villagers migrated because of floodings. This village was replaced by the village of Kahi, after a random selection.The villages selected are: a) Agriculture and forestry ( 7): Goria Mbande, Mbella Ouolof (Mbella Saloum), Ngalick, Khende, Diagle, Ndodji, Nianghene Ouolof; b) Mixed crop-livestock system (6):Bagana, Kanka, Kebe Keur Lahine, Korky Bambara, Moukhoume, Kahi; c) Crops and vegetable production ( 7): Loumene, Gainth Gouye, Gainth Peulhi, Ngatou Malick, Medina Ndiayene, Mbene Diouma, Ngidiba A phase of sensitizing was carried on between the 18 and the 27th of June 2012, to meet the chiefs of the villages and the population and explain how would the survey would be organized. During this first visit, the actual lists of households were established for each village with the chiefs. Then, 10 households were randomly selected per village, for a total of 200 households.The training of enumerators and testing of the questionnaires took place in May 2012 and conducted by Sabine Douxchamps (IWMI-ILRI), Mariana Rufino and Yacine Ndour. The survey was finished by September 2012 and the data delivered in November 2012.The list of villages from the CCAFS baseline survey was confirmed. The site of Tougou, in the Northern Region of Burkina Faso, comprises four rural communities (Namissiguima, Ouahigouya, Barga, and Titao) and 51 villages. Together with the technical services (chefs ZAT -Zone d'Appui Technique) of the communities of Namissiguima, Ouahigouya and Barga, and the Province Director of the Lorum, three production systems were identified: i) mixed crop-livestock system (25 villages). There can be a dominance of either crop or livestock. This system occupies most of the area; ii) mixed crop-livestock system + vegetables (20 villages). Vegetable cropping during the dry season if some water is available; iii) mixed crop-livestock system + agroforestry (3 villages).There is no clear separation between the systems. The whole area is under mixed crop-livestock system, and then the two other systems are scattered here and there, depending if there is a source of water during the rainy season (Dam of Tougou, wells, or dugouts) or a forest. Vegetable growing and agroforestry would then represent an additional source of diversification of the basic croplivestock system. All key informants agreed on this. There was never only one production system in a village, but always a mixture. The dominant production system in a village (i.e. more than about 60% of the household practice it) defined to which production system the village would be assigned.An important non-agricultural activity in the region is gold washing: the 3 villages concerned by this activity were discarded before the random selection. Seven villages were randomly selected by production system, except for the mixed system with agroforestry where only 3 villages were available, and were all selected.i) mixed crop-livestock system: Rapougouma, Longa, Sillia, Salla Foulbe, Todiam, Hargo, Poukouma ramssa, Ramdolla peul ii) mixed crop-livestock system + vegetables: Dinguiri, Karma, Lemnogo mossi, Sabouna, Rikou, You iii) mixed crop-livestock system + agroforestry: Tougou, Solgom, BagayalgoThe lists of households per villages were established with the technical services and the Villagers Development Council (\"Conseil Villageois de Developpement\") of each village. Then, 10 households were randomly selected from the list for each village of the mixed crop-livestock system and the mixed crop-livestock system + vegetables production systems, and 20 households were selected per village for the mixed crop-livestock system + agroforestry system, so in total 200 households.The training of enumerators was conducted in June 2012 by Sabine Douxchamps. The survey ended September 2012 and the data was delivered in November 2012.Samples villages were selected in the rural communes of Cinzana and Katiéna. Criteria used for villages' selection were: i) villages within the block of 30x30 km 2 , ii) permission from the village authorities/elders to conduct the survey, iii) representative villages (size and inhabitants) among the villages of the block, iv) ease of access (road).The selection of villages was done with extension services and IER team led by Lamissa Diakité. Following the introduction on the CCAFS programme, the activities/projects conducted over the past two years at the Segou site, and presentation of the objectives of the survey, 20 villages were selected from the total list of 46. There is about 12 805 households and 56 744 inhabitants in the block. The block is homogenous (from a physical and socioeconomic perspectives), and therefore very little difference between villages and households. To reach 200 households among the 20 villages, samples of 10 households were selected in each of the village. In each village, households were selected from the census list available at the village level. The census list was updated beforehand. A random sampling approach was used whereby all the households listed were put together in a hat and 10 households were selected randomly.The identification of the production system was done through grey literature and consultation of key informants such as extension services, rural development projects operating in the area, villages' elders and local decentralized public officers (agriculture, environment, livestock and fisheries). From this process, only one production system (agro-pastoral, with agriculture as the main component and extensive livestock production as the second component) was identified and agreed upon by all the stakeholders. The training was conducted by Abdoulaye Moussa from the CCAFS West Africa office in June 2012. The survey was finished by October 2012 and the data delivered in December 2012.The Niger household survey was conducted in 46 villages in 2012, for 15 consecutive days; starting from 11th of August 2012 to 25th of August 2012. In order to identify the production systems the site coordinator has carried out an expert consultation on site. The expert that has been consulted has been working in the research area for about 20 years, and has been collaborating with different research institutes.The following two production systems have been identified:1. Subsistence crops and livestock farming with local species. Specifically this production systems presents: Subsistence crops such as: millet, sorghum, cowpea, sesame, maize, peanut, okra and Livestock farming with local species: oxen, goat, sheep, chicken, guinea fowl.Subsistence crops, market gardening and livestock farming with local species. Specifically this production system presents: Subsistence crops such as: millet, sorghum, cowpea, sesame, maize, peanut, okra, Market gardening: cabbage, potatoes, salad, onion, tomato, gourd, courgette, carrot, sweet potatoes, cassava, Cultivation of Moringa, Livestock farming with local species: oxen, goat, sheep, chicken, guinea fowl.The market gardening is practices during the dry season. The Moringa is cultivated the entire year and both leaves and grains are commercialized. Most of the market gardening products and Moringa are sold.The identification of the list of villages has been based on the map 'CCAFS_hbs_Fakara_Niger /Icrisat GIS lab : Novembre 2010'. In this map are localized the 46 CCFAS villages/sites in Niger. In each of the two clusters of villages established on the basis of the two production systems, a random selection has been done to select 10 villages, 5 for each of the production system. The selected villages are reported in bold in table 5. In the table 5 is represented the distribution of the villages according with the production system.Table 5 -Distribution of the villages according with the production system. In bold are indicated the villages selected for the survey.Villages with a specific production system For each village the list of the households has been compiled. The choice of the households to interview has been done during an assembly in each one of the selected villages. All the social categories have been taken into account when sampling the villages. Two hundred households, 100 from each production system were interviewed.Five enumerators and 1 field supervisor were involved. Trained enumerators were used to fill out the questionnaires throughout the survey. Each enumerator filled 40 questionnaires in 15 days. The questionnaire typically lasted in average 1 hour and 30 minutes with each respondent. The survey activity did not present any particular problem of implementation. This may have been due to the Total net income, cash income, non-cash income and off-farm income for the household were calculated using revenues from livestock, crops, value of consumed food products and as shown in equations ( 1), ( 2), ( 3) and (4).(1)where: is total annual income for household i Lsale is annual income from livestock sales Crsale is annual income from crop sales VP is the annual monetary value of consumed farm produce Lcost are the annual direct costs of livestock production CrCost are the annual direct costs of crop production If the household consumed a food type, then it had a score of 1, otherwise zero.The asset index analysis is adapted from analyses recommended for all Bill and Melinda Gates funded projects. It is calculated for all movable assets. Each of the assets is assigned a weight (w) and then adjusted for age (Agricultural Development Outcome indicators, 2010).where, W= weight of the ith item of asset g N=number of asset g owned by household A=age adjustment to weight G= number of assets owned by household 6 Data management and databasesThe data management process relied on a software system called CSPro for entering and editing the survey data. Data entry was performed at each site by one member of the team. On completion of data entry each site submitted a DAT file to ILRI headquarters in Nairobi for processing, transforming and storing the data into a standard MySQL database. The DAT passed through a series of automated processes generating error log files describing diverse problems with the data. Each tier of processing was followed by constant interaction between ILRI staff and the site team to resolve the problems. The result is 15 consistent and standard 1 databases storing detail information of 3000 households. The following diagram shows the data management process.The data for each site is stored in a MySQL database in 22 tables with 27 supporting lookup tables. The following images show a graphical representation of the database separated in three main sections: a) Crops, containing the generic information of the household plus data on crop, plots, management activities and crop production; b) Livestock, containing information about livestock numbers, management activities and production and; c) Other, containing information about other sources of income and expenses plus household consumption patterns.  ","tokenCount":"6175"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"eec64d74a97352efb06309d705ec17f7","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/e1e6547f-a8de-4f4d-ac6d-1393dfedee35/retrieve","id":"738983899"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"c7f4fc5c-d801-4b31-b74d-3c46e6cd38bc","pagecount":"2","content":"Aphids can be controlled using Dimethoate 40% EC. Apply as cover spray. Use 34 g Dimethoate powder in a litre of water for up to 3 week old seedlings and 68 g Dimethoate powder per litre of water for old plants. For the liquid formulation of Dimethoate, use 0.5 ml in a litre of water up to 3 weeks old and 1.0 ml per litre of water for the older plants.The crop should be harvested as soon as the pods are ready. Delayed harvest may result in losses due to rotting, termite and mouse attack and increased bruchid infestation. Pods should be moved in the morning hours to avoid shattering. Dry the beans and thresh by using hands or sticks. Store well dried beans, in clean containers and treat with Actellic (1 sachet to 90 kg of seed) or adequate ash (0.25 -0.5: 1 beans by volume) to prevent weevil damage. The inclusion of crushed tobacco leaves with the ash increases the degree of control. Regular sunning (once a week for 6 hours or more) will further reduce weevil damage.Bean seed of improved varieties can be obtained from reliable sources, check with agricultural extension agents in EPAs, and NGOs nearest to your area. Once farmers have planted the improved bean varieties, seeds can be recycled for a few years without degeneration. Farmers are therefore, encouraged to keep part of their produce as seed for the next season. Seed should only come from a disease free crop and should not be damaged by insect pests.Dried beans are the best source of proteins among the food from plants. When they are eaten with cereals, they provide a cheap source of protein which comes from meat or fish. They also provide energy, fibre, minerals and vitamins.Beans are important for nutrition so grow your own beans and cook and eat more of this nourishing food.Dried beans should be clean, sound and free from weevils, dirt, mould and mustiness.Soak dried beans overnight or for 4 to 6 hours to shorten cooking time.After soaking bring to the boil, reduce heat, cover and simmer until soft.After boiling, beans may be seasoned and eaten or they can also be combined with other ingredients. NOTE: Do not use baking soda to tenderize beans because soda destroys B vitamins (Contact your FA or FHA for some recipes)Beans are important for food as well as cash in Malawi.Most farmers use their own bean varieties which are low yielding. Chitedze Research in collaboration with CIAT/ SABRN developed additional two new improved bean varieties (Kholophethe and Kabalabala) which are high yielding and are recommended for production (released) in Malawi in addition to the six earlier released varieties (Maluwa, Napilira, Sapatsika, Kambidzi, Nagaga, and Mkhalira).These varieties are recommended for production in all bean growing areas (can be produced with rain-fed in highland areas, medium altitude areas and/or low altitude areas with residual moisture or irrigation).Kholophethe is large seeded (45g /100 seeds), with cream background and red speckles (sugar bean). Kabalabala is small seeded (25g/ 100 seeds) with white background (navy beans).Under good management beans grown in pure stand can yield up to 2500 kg per ha. To improve bean yields the following cultural practices are recommended:Farmers should be encouraged to use good seed of improved and recommended varieties for the production areas.Kholophethe (SUG131) & Kabalabala (UBR(92)25) Production PackageFields should be prepared early, by November in the South and December in the centre and north of Malawi for the rainy season crop. The Dimba crop is planted when climate is favourable, ranging from May to July along the lakeshore.To achieve high yields the correct plant population should be observed as follows:a. Pure stand Plant dwarf beans in rows spaced at 30 cm apart on the ridge. Plant 1 seed per hole, 10 cm apart, in the ridge.Ridges should be 75-90 cm apart. This requires 70 to 80 kg of seed per hectare for large seeded varieties (eg Kholophethe), and 50 to 60 kg of seed for small seeded varieties (eg Kabalabala).When maize is planted at 90 cm apart (3 seeds per station), place four planting stations in between the two maize planting stations. Plant 1 bean seed in each of the four planting stations. You will require 40-50 kg per hectareUnder dimba cultivation, plant dwarf varieties in rows 45 cm apart, two seeds per planting station spaced at 20 cm. This requires 40-50 kg of seed per hectare.Beans are self pollinated so there is little risk of varietal contamination through foreign pollen from nearby bean crops. However, there is need to separate different varieties by a few metres to avoid physical mixing.Most farmers do not apply fertilizer to their bean crop if it is grown in pure stand. However, farmers who intercrop beans with maize, often apply fertilizer to their maize, and the beans benefit from this. The recommended fertilizer application for the pure stand of beans is 20 kg/ha of N and P2O5 which requires 100 kg of 23:21:0 + 4S fertilizer.Manure can be applied if fertilizer is not used.a.Weeds: The crop should be kept weed free during the first six to eight weeks after planting. Weeding should stop after flowering to avoid flower shading.Diseases: Use disease tolerant varieties. The new varieties have tolerance to the major diseases.Insect pests: The major pre-harvest bean pests are the bean stem maggot (BSM), bean beetles and aphids.BSM causes wilting and is often termed a 'blight' by farmers. The attack may be avoided by planting early. Mortality due to BSM may be reduced by growing improved varieties; by applying a mulch (to remain in place for the lifetime of the crop); by applying manure at planting; and by earthing up around the base of the plants at first weeding (2 to 3 weeks after emergence). When available, Amigo (applied at the rate of 1 litre Amigo to 50 kg of seed) can be used as seed treatments.Bean beetle can be controlled with Carbryl 85 WP applied as full cover spray at the rate of 85 g in 14 litres of water. Spraying should be done only when the infestation is likely to cause damage. In areas where this pest is severe early planting should be avoided.","tokenCount":"1028"}

data/part_5/0278088768.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"ee41167a63c7067e77b66cd670dd4b23","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/283c1c2c-c4a3-433b-9235-f7ccc389b177/retrieve","id":"1424653189"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"723be52b-e6ff-4c53-ab86-afc14a139ef5","pagecount":"2","content":"Supporting young people to enter food value chains can help reduce high levels of youth unemployment across sub-Saharan Africa. The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and WorldFish conducted a study to understand the drivers of, and hindrances to, youth entry into aquaculture value chains in Nigeria to support development of youth-inclusive policy for rural areas.\"Value chain for development\" (VCD) is a favored approach to increase economic opportunities for youth in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is limited understanding of what constitutes successful youth-inclusive VCD. Using an integrated framework, the IWMI and WorldFish investigated the livelihood assets available to youth from diverse groups in Nigeria and their ability to use assets to invest in aquaculture value chains. This revealed two main strategies: \"investment\" and \"risk management. \" Youth adopting either strategy consider aquaculture to be sustainable, profitable, fast growing and supported by high demand for fish. The Nigerian government and its development partners support youth engagement in the sector, but limited resources and a lack of youth input at the design phase hamper the efficacy of these interventions.Youth using this strategy leverage livelihood assets (e.g. social, human and natural capital) and financial assets for technical and capital-intensive roles, such as production. Young men and women use social networks and communications technologies to gain expertise, expand networks and access markets. Youth in wealthier households often invest directly in land and inputs, drawing on their social networks, savings, financial institutions and aquaculture projects.However, the high cost of inputs, lack of youth-oriented financial services and often poor quality of inputs increase risk and constrain investments. Young people tend not to participate in farmer associations that could offer support because they do not understand the benefits or older members have too little confidence in youth to engage them. Meanwhile, the assumption that aquaculture production is stressful and tedious for women, as well as other structural barriers, like tenure systems that deny women rights to land, further hinder the engagement of young women.Youth following this strategy leverage their livelihood assets (e.g. physical and social capital) and marketing skills (human capital) to engage in input supply, processing and distribution roles. Youth from poor households mainly invest in these functions, using finances from social networks and savings. Youth may also invest in communications technologies to improve market access and overcome misinformation with value chain actors (e.g. suppliers, buyers) as well as capitalize on training opportunities from aquaculture projects to mitigate losses caused by poor roads and storage facilities. The common perception that women are naturally suited for processing and marketing encourages young women to engage in these activities.• Widen understanding of diversity among youth and include youth in the design of interventions.• Develop youth-oriented financial services and capacity development initiatives to improve opportunities for youth from poor households.• Introduce incentives that encourage the private sector to support youth access to quality inputs and technologies at reasonable prices.• Encourage private and public sector investment in logistics services, such as better roads and storage facilities, to reduce losses.","tokenCount":"497"}

data/part_5/0279923461.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"6af7d8547d1c837081087428cf241759","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/847a9299-6e9c-46a9-8658-468f8312b63a/retrieve","id":"-634793038"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"578c6e10-89ed-47d2-9627-8c0c0b366122","pagecount":"29","content":"Who cares? Why be accessible?• Our data information or knowledge assets should have benefits that can travel across boundaries• They need to be:-Described and stored for posterity -Easily found and accessed -Easily shared and re-used -Available, accessible and applicable without restrictions AAA• Availability -able to identify a 'publication' (metadata at least)• Accessibility -able to 'get hold of' the 'whole thing'• Applicability -able to adapt and re-use or re-purpose the 'publication'AAA Pathways• Promising technical and institutional routes to more or better accessibility• Repository of outputs of people and projects (hosted at ILRI)• Publishing and alerting platform• Repository for projects, institution, CRP?• Gateway to Google and beyondChoices we made Future ?• Index/make available limited access items (to the CGIAR with Active Directory?)-Full text articles / Internal documents ","tokenCount":"125"}

data/part_5/0283231976.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"e27f29df369d5abfa816586d5dc85f26","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/27e2b473-f5ed-4e86-85d5-64ca9ece8393/retrieve","id":"272633773"},"keywords":["metabolome","crop metabolism","nutrient deficiency","metabolites"],"sieverID":"e185b12a-272d-490d-80d9-6877ff9cb775","pagecount":"21","content":"Crop growth and yield often face sophisticated environmental stresses, especially the low availability of mineral nutrients in soils, such as deficiencies of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and others. Thus, it is of great importance to understand the mechanisms of crop response to mineral nutrient deficiencies, as a basis to contribute to genetic improvement and breeding of crop varieties with high nutrient efficiency for sustainable agriculture. With the advent of large-scale omics approaches, the metabolome based on mass spectrometry has been employed as a powerful and useful technique to dissect the biochemical, molecular, and genetic bases of metabolisms in many crops. Numerous metabolites have been demonstrated to play essential roles in plant growth and cellular stress response to nutrient limitations. Therefore, the purpose of this review was to summarize the recent advances in the dissection of crop metabolism responses to deficiencies of mineral nutrients, as well as the underlying adaptive mechanisms. This review is intended to provide insights into and perspectives on developing crop varieties with high nutrient efficiency through metabolite-based crop improvement.Along with the growing population, the demands for crop production have increased gradually, as reflected by the 85% increase predicted from 2013 to 2050 [1,2]. In different growth and development periods, crops often suffer many sophisticated environmental stresses. Among them, deficiencies of mineral nutrients, such as nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), and others, are considered as the major constraints for crop growth and production [3,4]. For example, a 30-40% decrease in crop yield may occur under low P availability, while crop yields can drop by 10-40% under varying levels of N deficiency [4][5][6]. To maintain crop growth and yield under poor soil nutrient conditions in traditional agriculture, large amounts of chemical fertilizers are supplied to soils, but most of them are inevitably wasted due to low nutrient efficiency of crops and poor mobilization of nutrients in soils [7,8]. For example, N use efficiency of most plants is only 30-50%, resulting in 50-70% of the N fertilizer lost by denitrification, leaching, and volatilization [9]. Excess fertilizer amounts supplied to the soils lead to a waste of resources and increasing environmental issues, such as soil hardening, surface and groundwater contamination, and greenhouse gas emissions [10,11]. Therefore, developing crop varieties with high nutrient efficiency through genetic improvement is a critical approach to reconcile increased crop production with environmental sustainability.To understand the adaptive mechanisms of crops to nutrient deficiency, a large number of nutrient-responsive genes or proteins have been identified and characterized through high-throughput omics techniques, such as genomics, transcriptomics, and 2 of 21 proteomics [12,13]. Due to the changes in gene transcripts, protein levels, and enzyme activities not always being correlated, metabolites, the products of plant metabolism, are regarded as the readouts of plant growth or developmental status [14]. Thus, metabolomics, which is defined as qualitative and quantitative analysis of cellular metabolites based on mass spectrometry (MS) coupled to gas or liquid chromatography (GC or LC) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, has become an important complementary tool for functional genomics and system biology studies in plants [15].More than 200,000 metabolites are estimated to be present in plants, which may have diverse functions in plant growth or cellular stress responses [14,16]. With the development of the accurate and large-scale detection of metabolites, metabolomics, including untargeted and targeted approaches, is now widely employed to identify differentially accumulated metabolites (DAMs) in response of crops to nutrient deficiencies. In this review, therefore, we mainly focus on recent advances in metabolomic dissection of crops in response to deficiencies of various mineral nutrients, including N, P, K, and other nutrients. This review also highlights the roles of key metabolites and the regulation of critical metabolic pathways during nutrient deficiency, with the intention to provide some insights into and perspectives on metabolite-based crop improvement.As N is one of the most important macronutrients for crop growth and development, its deficiency severely decreases crop biomass, inhibits chlorophyll content, and disrupts photosynthesis and photorespiration, ultimately limiting crop yield [17][18][19]. A series of physiological and molecular mechanisms underlying crop adaptation to N deficiency have been demonstrated, such as coordinating carbon (C) and N metabolisms, regulating root architecture, modulating phytohormone signaling, enhancing N uptake and translocation, and accumulating stress tolerance-related compounds [8,[20][21][22][23][24]. Since total N content and crop growth are affected by N limitation, metabolome analysis has been performed to identify N deficiency responsive metabolites and metabolic pathways, dissecting the adaptive mechanisms through regulation of metabolic profiles in many crops, such as rice (Oryza sativa), maize (Zea mays), wheat (Triticum aestivum), barley (Hordeum vulgare), soybean (Glycine max), tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), and rapeseed (Brassica napus) [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. A summary of metabolome analyses of crops responses to N deficiency is presented in Table 1. Many of the identified DAMs can be integrated into specific metabolic pathways regulated by low-N stress (Figure 1).N deficiency has been shown to significantly decrease photosynthetic rate [29,33]. Several photosynthesis-related genes and proteins have been found to be downregulated by N deficiency [12,25], which is closely related to the accumulation of carbohydrates under N deprivation [34]. A variety of sugars, including fructose, galactose, glucose, sucrose, and maltose, are markedly increased in N-deficient leaves of barley according to metabolome analysis [35]. A similar result has been reported in apple leaves, where several carbohydrates related to C metabolism, such as glucose-6-P, fructose-6-P, and glycerate-3-P, are increased by N deficiency [33]. The accumulation of carbohydrates is believed to act as a key signal to fine-tune the decrease in photosynthesis in plant leaves during N limitation. Consistent with the reduction in photosynthesis, the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle is also inhibited in leaves during low-N stress [25,33,36]. For example, intermediate metabolites involved in the TCA cycle, such as 2-oxoglutarate, citrate, isocitrate, succinate, fumarate, and malate, are decreased in tomato leaves under N-deficient conditions [37].  It has been demonstrated that N deficiency is bound to affect N metabolism. For example, the concentrations of free amino acids were decreased by 12.5% in leaves of rice exposed to low-N treatment [29]. In maize, a set of amino acids, such as glutamate, asparagine, alanine, serine, and glycine, were all decreased in leaves under N deficiency [25]. Similarly, under N-deficient conditions, most amino acids, including aspartic acid, lysine, glycine, threonine, asparagine, and glutamine, were decreased in barley leaves [35]. Interestingly, the decreased amino acid metabolites may be attributed to the downregulated glutamine synthetase (GS) and glutamine aminotransferase (GOGAT) genes, which are involved in the conversion of ammonium to amino acids [33]. Furthermore, integrated analyses of transcriptomics and metabolomics in rice showed that the NADH-dependent glutamate synthase (OsGLT1) gene is downregulated by N deficiency, which is consistent with the decreases in glutamate concentration [29]. Similar results have also been obtained in leaves of soybean and tomato where amino acids were decreased by N deficiency [26,30]. The reduction in amino-acid levels under low-N stress is considered as an energysaving strategy. On the basis of the above results, it is reasonable to propose that a crop can adjust the balance between C and N metabolism to avoid metabolic inefficiencies and maintain crop growth under N deprivation.Similar to other abiotic stresses, N deficiency also causes the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), resulting in lipid peroxidation and triggering oxidative stress in crops if not well scavenged. For example, the content of H2O2 is significantly increased in apple leaves subjected to low-N treatment, generating oxidative stress [33]. In addition to induce the activities of antioxidant enzymes to eliminate ROS damage, the other adaptive change that alleviates oxidative stress during N deficiency in plants is the accumulation of stress tolerance-related metabolites. Among these metabolites, galactinol, raffinose, sugar alcohols, ascorbic acid, and polyamines have been considered as ROS scavengers [38,39]. It was reported that ascorbic acid, putrescine, and 5-hydroxytryptamine were It has been demonstrated that N deficiency is bound to affect N metabolism. For example, the concentrations of free amino acids were decreased by 12.5% in leaves of rice exposed to low-N treatment [29]. In maize, a set of amino acids, such as glutamate, asparagine, alanine, serine, and glycine, were all decreased in leaves under N deficiency [25]. Similarly, under N-deficient conditions, most amino acids, including aspartic acid, lysine, glycine, threonine, asparagine, and glutamine, were decreased in barley leaves [35]. Interestingly, the decreased amino acid metabolites may be attributed to the downregulated glutamine synthetase (GS) and glutamine aminotransferase (GOGAT) genes, which are involved in the conversion of ammonium to amino acids [33]. Furthermore, integrated analyses of transcriptomics and metabolomics in rice showed that the NADH-dependent glutamate synthase (OsGLT1) gene is downregulated by N deficiency, which is consistent with the decreases in glutamate concentration [29]. Similar results have also been obtained in leaves of soybean and tomato where amino acids were decreased by N deficiency [26,30]. The reduction in amino-acid levels under low-N stress is considered as an energy-saving strategy. On the basis of the above results, it is reasonable to propose that a crop can adjust the balance between C and N metabolism to avoid metabolic inefficiencies and maintain crop growth under N deprivation.Similar to other abiotic stresses, N deficiency also causes the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), resulting in lipid peroxidation and triggering oxidative stress in crops if not well scavenged. For example, the content of H 2 O 2 is significantly increased in apple leaves subjected to low-N treatment, generating oxidative stress [33]. In addition to induce the activities of antioxidant enzymes to eliminate ROS damage, the other adaptive change that alleviates oxidative stress during N deficiency in plants is the accumulation of stress tolerance-related metabolites. Among these metabolites, galactinol, raffinose, sugar alcohols, ascorbic acid, and polyamines have been considered as ROS scavengers [38,39]. It was reported that ascorbic acid, putrescine, and 5-hydroxytryptamine were greatly accumulated in barley shoots [35], which are beneficial for the tolerance of barley to low-N stress. Secondary metabolites are proposed to be important resistance substances produced by plants during long-term adaptation to environmental stress. Metabolome studies showed that flavonoid-related metabolites, such as cinnamic acid, dihydroquercetin, pelargonidin-3-O-glucoside, and cyanidin-3-O-glucoside, were increased by N deficiency in apple [33], which is likely to protect cells from oxidative stress damage. Furthermore, under N limitation, β-alanine levels were found to be increased in leaves of rapeseed [32]. Increases in the levels of osmoprotectants, such as β-alanine, proline, and γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), are generally associated with enhanced low-N stress tolerance in plants [40], but the exact roles of these metabolites in different crops remain to be investigated.Another strategy for increasing low-N stress tolerance can be achieved by promoting root elongation under N deficiency. Thus, metabolic profile changes in roots can reveal the mechanisms underlying adaptation of a crop to N deficiency. For example, plant hormones are found to play an important role in regulating root growth under low-N stress [32]. The concentrations of gibberellic acid (GA) in rapeseed roots were significantly increased under N deficiency, which may contribute to promoting root growth [32]. In addition to phytohormones, increasing C partitions to roots is also necessary to increase root growth [41,42]. In contrast to leaves, the levels of metabolites involved in the TCA cycle were increased in apple and soybean roots under N deficiency [30,33], which may promote root growth through enhancing energy accumulation under N-deficient conditions. On the contrary, the contents of alanine, aspartic acid, isoleucine, serine, and threonine were found to be decreased in low-N-tolerant soybean roots, indicating that low-N-tolerant soybean may adapt to N deficiency by reducing energy consumption [30]. Malate, related to the TCA cycle, was found to be increased in roots under N deficiency [33]. Since dehydrogenation of malate is accompanied by the generation of NADH, which is an important antioxidant, the increased malate concentration in roots is considered as an adaptive mechanism of plant tolerance to N deficiency by an enhanced antioxidant status [33]. An additional study in soybean showed that the accumulation of malate in roots could also stimulate nitrate uptake under N deficiency [43]. Furthermore, secondary metabolites, such as salicylic acid (SA) and catechol, were increased in soybean roots under N deprivation [30]. SA was found to be involved in increasing N use efficiency of isolated cucumber (Cucumis sativus) cotyledons [44]. Moreover, the shikimate metabolic pathway-related compounds phenylalanine, shikimic acid, SA, naringin, and neohesperidin also increased in soybean roots during N deficiency [30], which may contribute to the synthesis of aromatic amino acids, plant hormones, and a variety of important active secondary metabolites, increasing tolerance to stress conditions [45,46]. Furthermore, the levels of raffinose and galactitol in roots were higher than those in shoots of barley [35]; the authors concluded that roots were more affected by low-N stress than shoots. A comparison of amino-acid metabolites in common soybean with the low-N-tolerant soybean genotype Tongyu06311 showed that proline was accumulated in roots of the low-N-tolerant soybean genotype Tongyu06311, which is probably beneficial for soybean adapted to low-N stress [30]. Thus, metabolism adjustments are essential for crops in response to N deficiency.P is a key component of nucleic acids, proteins, and membrane lipids, and it is essential for many biological processes in plants [13,47,48]. Low P availability in soils is a major constraint for crop production. In past decades, there have been large advances in dissecting the mechanisms of plant adaptation to P deficiency including physiological and biochemical responses. Plants have developed a variety of adaptive strategies, such as changing root architecture and morphology, increasing the secretion of organic acids, and developing a bypass pathway for recycling internal P [12,49,50]. Metabolome analysis has also been widely conducted to investigate the metabolite-based low-P tolerance mechanisms in crops, such as soybean, quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa), common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), tomato, and oats (Avena sativa) [26,[51][52][53][54][55]. To date, numerous metabolites have been identified to be involved in the responses of crops to P deficiency. A summary of metabolome analysis and identified DAMs is presented in Table 2. The DAMs can be integrated into specific pathways associated with lipids, flavonoids, amino acids, and nucleotide metabolisms, shedding light on the changes in crop responses to low-P stress (Figure 2). These findings provide major insights into understanding the mechanisms of low-P stress tolerance through metabolic modulation.also been widely conducted to investigate the metabolite-based low-P tolerance mechanisms in crops, such as soybean, quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa), common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), tomato, and oats (Avena sativa) [26,[51][52][53][54][55]. To date, numerous metabolites have been identified to be involved in the responses of crops to P deficiency. A summary of metabolome analysis and identified DAMs is presented in Table 2. The DAMs can be integrated into specific pathways associated with lipids, flavonoids, amino acids, and nucleotide metabolisms, shedding light on the changes in crop responses to low-P stress (Figure 2). These findings provide major insights into understanding the mechanisms of low-P stress tolerance through metabolic modulation. Modifying root growth and increasing the root-to-shoot ratio are key adaptive mechanisms to enhance phosphate (Pi) acquisition efficiency for plants under low-P stress. Transcriptomic and proteomic analyses have been conducted to identify key genes or proteins involved in the regulation of root architecture and morphology in response to P deficiency [54]. Metabolites involved in root development regulation have also been identified through a metabolomic approach [26,51,53,54]. Both C and N metabolisms have been reported to be modulated in response of crops to P deficiency. Most amino-acid metabolites, including asparagine, lysine, histidine, ornithine, isoleucine, leucine, and arginine, were found to be accumulated in P-deprived roots of several crops, such as common bean, tomato, and soybean [26,51,54]. Furthermore, it was found that the increase in amino-acid concentration may be due to the upregulation of protein degradation-related genes and the downregulation of protein synthesis-related genes under P deficiency [56,57]. During low-P stress, plants can increase C distribution to the root system, thereby increasing the root-to-shoot ratio and regulating the root system morphology. Significant increases in maltose, sucrose, raffinose, and 6-kestose were observed in barley roots under 17 days of Modifying root growth and increasing the root-to-shoot ratio are key adaptive mechanisms to enhance phosphate (Pi) acquisition efficiency for plants under low-P stress. Transcriptomic and proteomic analyses have been conducted to identify key genes or proteins involved in the regulation of root architecture and morphology in response to P deficiency [54]. Metabolites involved in root development regulation have also been identified through a metabolomic approach [26,51,53,54]. Both C and N metabolisms have been reported to be modulated in response of crops to P deficiency. Most amino-acid metabolites, including asparagine, lysine, histidine, ornithine, isoleucine, leucine, and arginine, were found to be accumulated in P-deprived roots of several crops, such as common bean, tomato, and soybean [26,51,54]. Furthermore, it was found that the increase in amino-acid concentration may be due to the upregulation of protein degradation-related genes and the downregulation of protein synthesis-related genes under P deficiency [56,57]. During low-P stress, plants can increase C distribution to the root system, thereby increasing the root-to-shoot ratio and regulating the root system morphology. Significant increases in maltose, sucrose, raffinose, and 6-kestose were observed in barley roots under 17 days of low-P treatment [58]; the authors considered this an adaptive mechanism of plants by promoting root growth through regulating C allocation. In addition, sugar has been documented to be an important sensor for the Pi starvation response; the expression of phosphate starvation-induced (PSI) genes was found to be regulated by sugar limitation [59]. Thus, increases in sugar levels in roots may induce the expression of PSI genes, regulating plant growth under low-P stress. However, further characterization of sugar and PSI genes is needed to confirm their exact roles in low-P stress tolerance via regulating C allocation in plants.In addition to root growth regulation for acquiring Pi, crop roots can exudate organic acids into the rhizosphere to promote solubilization of fixed Pi [32,60]. It has been found that organic acids have an important role in the response of plants to Pi starvation. For example, metabolome analysis of the exudates from rice roots revealed that organic acids, such as 2,6diaminopimelate, 3-dehydroshikimate, fumarate, hypoxanthine, and D-galacturonate, were increased by P deficiency [28], which may contribute to the mobilization of insoluble soil P, as suggested by the authors. Furthermore, significant increases in the exudation of malic, oxalic, and succinic acids were observed in the P-efficient wheat genotype RAC875 [61]. On the other hand, metabolome analysis has shown that internal organic acids in roots are also affected by P deficiency. The levels of organic acids, such as tartaric acid and 2,4dihydroxybutanoic acid, in roots of common bean were found to be decreased during low-P stress [52]. Similar results were also obtained in barley roots exposed to low-P treatment, where the levels of several organic acids, including α-ketoglutarate, succinate, fumarate, and malate, were reduced [58]. Therefore, organic acids secreted to the rhizosphere may lead to the reduction in organic acids in roots under P deficiency. An increase in organic acid exudation from roots is one of the important physiological mechanisms for crops increasing Pi utilization from soils.On the other hand, promoting the remobilization of internal P resources, such as phosphorylated metabolites, nucleic acids, and phospholipids, which are well known as the largest P pool in plants [62], is necessary for crop adaptation to P deficiency. Under Plimited conditions, the levels of phosphorylated metabolites were reported to be decreased in soybean roots, including sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, O-phosphocholine, deoxyribose 5-phosphate, O-phosphorylethanolamine, and DL-glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate [54]. Similar results were also found in oats where glucose-6-phosphate and myo-inositol phosphate were dramatically decreased in P-deficient roots [53]. Moreover, nucleotides, such as adenosine 3 -monophosphate, inosine 5 -monophosphate, guanosine 5 -monophosphate, uridine 5 -diphospho-D-glucose, guanosine monophosphate, adenosine 5 -monophosphate, deoxyribose 5-phosphate, cytidine 5 -monophosphate, uridine 5 -monophosphate, and guanosine 3 ,5 -cyclic monophosphate, were decreased by Pi starvation in soybean roots [54]. Decreases in nucleic acid concentration were also observed in white lupin under Pi starvation [63]. The regulation of the synthesis and/or degradation of nucleotides is likely to help a crop cope with P deficiency. Recently, a key gene, DNA polymerase delta 1 (DPD1), involved in organelle DNA degradation for improving P use efficiency, was characterized in Arabidopsis [64]. Several DPD1 homologs in soybean were also found to be upregulated in roots under P deficiency [54]. These results support the hypothesis that changes in nucleotide metabolism are beneficial for increasing internal P remobilization, thereby improving P utilization efficiency. Furthermore, lipid-related metabolites such as glycerophospholipids were found to be decreased in responses of crops to P deficiency [54,65]. For example, in soybean roots, sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, O-phosphocholine, and several glycerophospholipids, all of which are involved in remodeling membrane lipids, were decreased under P-deficient conditions [54]. Replacing phospholipids with sulfolipids or galactolipids in bio-membranes can also help plant tolerance to low-P stress; this deserves further investigation. DAMs, differentially accumulated metabolites; nd, not described in the studies. a Two genotypes used in the studies.In contrast to roots, increased accumulation of sucrose, maltose, raffinose, and 6kestose was observed mainly in shoots of barley growing under moderately P-deficient conditions [58], indicating that barley roots are less sensitive to Pi starvation. Furthermore, amino acids in legume nodules are also significantly affected by P deficiency. For example, five out of 10 amino-acid metabolites were decreased, whereas three out of 10 amino-acid metabolites were increased in nodules of common bean [52]. N metabolism-related metabolites, including spermidine, putrescine, urea, glycine, serine, glutamine, and threonine, were reduced in nodules of common bean under P deficiency, which may lead to a decrease in symbiotic nitrogen fixation [52]. However, the mechanism of metabolite changes in nodules under low-P stress requires to be studied further.Among the macronutrients, K plays essential roles in plant growth and development as a major cation or as a cofactor of various enzymes. Unlike N and P, K is not a part of organic compounds, but plays important roles in many physiological and biochemical processes, such as enzyme activation, ion homeostasis, osmoregulation, and protein synthesis [66,67]. Generally, the availability of K in soils is limited, which has become a limiting factor for sustainable production of cultivated crops [68]. Recently, metabolomic approaches have been applied to dissect the mechanism of crop tolerance to K deficiency (Table 3); examples include tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), sunflower (Helianthus annuus), barley (Hordeum vulgare), rapeseed (Brassica napus), and peanut (Arachis hypogaea) [26,35,[69][70][71][72]. Many of the identified DAMs can be integrated into specific metabolic pathways regulated by K deficiency stress (Figure 3).It is generally believed that carbohydrate metabolism not only is an important energy source for plants, but also plays a vital role in protein and lipid metabolisms [73]. Increases in the content of sugars, such as glucose, sucrose, and fructose, are suggested to be associated with plants in response to various stresses, including K deficiency [74]. Sugar levels have been reported to be increased in both leaves and roots of barley under K deficiency [35,70]. Accumulation of sucrose was also found in tomato roots under low-K stress [26]. Furthermore, low-K-tolerant barley genotypes seemed to accumulate more sugars in both leaves and roots than low-K-sensitive barley genotypes [70], indicating that increasing sugar accumulation is critical for barley adaptation to low-K stress. In addition, sucrose is an important signaling molecule that is transferred from leaves to roots, regulating root growth in response to nutrient stress [25,52]. Since K is involved in the loading of sucrose to the phloem, availability of K seriously affects the transport of sucrose from leaves to roots [75,76]. Therefore, under K-deficient conditions, sucrose in roots is not only an important substance for low-K tolerance, but also a key indicator to screen crops for tolerance to K limitation. It has been documented that N metabolism is affected by K deficiency; according to metabolome analysis, amino acids in leaves and roots of barley were increased during K limitation [70]. Metabolomic analysis also showed that tryptophan, guanidineacetic acid, asparagine, alanine, ornithine, and histidine were all increased in K-deficient wheat roots, while citric acid, glutamic acid, and GABA were decreased [77]. Interestingly, most of the increased amino acids were positively charged, whereas the negatively charged amino acids were reduced in both leaves and roots of barley [70]. Since K deficiency could lead to electric charge imbalance, it is important to maintain charge balance in plant cells to cope with low-K stress. The phenylpropanoid metabolic pathway is one of the most important secondary metabolic pathways in plants [78]. Within this pathway, L-phenylalanine can be catalyzed into trans-Cinnamic acid, which is a key substrate for the synthesis of flavonoids, lignin, and alkaloids [79]. Metabolome analysis revealed that, under K-deficient conditions, L-phenylalanine levels in a low-K-tolerant barley genotype were higher than those in a low-K-sensitive barley genotype [70], suggesting that regulation of the phenylpropanoid metabolic pathway can contribute to barley coping with low-K stress. K deficiency also causes an excess accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), resulting in oxidative stress in plants [80]. Thus, increasing the concentration of antioxidant metabolites is a vital stress tolerance strategy for plants dealing with K deprivation. The accumulation of compatible solutes, such as proline, soluble sugars, amino acids, and polyols, plays an important role in osmotic adjustment [81]. Among them, proline is regarded as an important antioxidant for stress tolerance [82]. There is evidence that K deficiency increases the concentration of proline in both leaves and roots of barley; for example, leaves of the low-K-tolerant cultivar XZ153 contained higher proline levels than those of the sensitive cultivar XZ141 [70]. Similarly, increases in proline concentration were observed in K-deprived leaves and roots of peanut [72]. In addition, ascorbic acid is an important antioxidant protecting cell membrane permeability [83]. The concentration of ascorbic acid in barley roots was found to be increased during low-K stress, especially in the low-K-tolerant cultivar XZ153. Furthermore, ascorbic acid concentrations were increased in leaves of the low-K-tolerant barley cultivar XZ153, but decreased in the low-Ksensitive barley cultivar XZ141 [70]. In addition, glutathione is also a key antioxidant involved in scavenging ROS via the GSH-ascorbate cycle [84]. Metabolome analysis showed that the content of glutathione was increased in roots of the low-K-tolerant wheat cultivar KN9204 but not in low-K-sensitive cultivar BN207 [77]. Thus, it is reasonable to propose that antioxidant metabolites, such as proline, ascorbic acid, and glutathione, are important metabolites for crop adaptation to K deficiency, although further investigation is required. K deficiency also causes an excess accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), resulting in oxidative stress in plants [80]. Thus, increasing the concentration of antioxidant metabolites is a vital stress tolerance strategy for plants dealing with K deprivation. The accumulation of compatible solutes, such as proline, soluble sugars, amino acids, and polyols, plays an important role in osmotic adjustment [81]. Among them, proline is regarded as an important antioxidant for stress tolerance [82]. There is evidence that K deficiency increases the concentration of proline in both leaves and roots of barley; for example, leaves of the low-K-tolerant cultivar XZ153 contained higher proline levels than those of the sensitive cultivar XZ141 [70]. Similarly, increases in proline concentration were observed in K-deprived leaves and roots of peanut [72]. In addition, ascorbic acid is an important antioxidant protecting cell membrane permeability [83]. The concentration of ascorbic acid in barley roots was found to be increased during low-K stress, especially in the low-K-tolerant cultivar XZ153. Furthermore, ascorbic acid concentrations were increased in leaves of the low-K-tolerant barley cultivar XZ153, but decreased in the low-K-sensitive barley cultivar XZ141 [70]. In addition, glutathione is also a key antioxidant involved in scavenging ROS via the GSH-ascorbate cycle [84]. Metabolome analysis showed that the content of glutathione was increased in roots of the low-K-tolerant wheat cultivar KN9204 but not in low-K-sensitive cultivar BN207 [77]. Thus, it is reasonable to propose that antioxidant metabolites, such as proline, ascorbic acid, and glutathione, are important metabolites for crop adaptation to K deficiency, although further investigation is required.Phytohormones are small endogenous signaling molecules that participate in regulating plant growth and development in various life stages and stress conditions. Metabolites related to phytohormones, such as abscisic acid (ABA), jasmonic acid (JA), and SA, are regulated by K deficiency. ABA is well known as a stress signal in response to drought, salinity, and nutrient limitation [85]. It can maintain the water relation by regulating stomatal conductance and plant metabolism [86]. JA is involved in abiotic stress through activation of antioxidant systems, synthesis of amino acids and sugars, and regulation of stomatal opening and closing [87]. SA is involved in protecting membrane integrity and modulating abundance of protein associated with secondary metabolites [72]. It was shown that, in both leaves and roots of peanut, K deficiency increased the levels of ABA [72]. Similarly, JA concentration in leaves of peanut also increased during low-K stress [72]. Unlike ABA and JA, SA concentration increased in leaves of peanut but decreased in roots under K-limited conditions [72]. Therefore, considering the importance of phytohormones in plant growth, it is reasonable to suggest that ABA, JA, SA, and other phytohormones are important molecules for low-K stress tolerance.Despite the advances in identifying various metabolites and metabolic pathways responding to N, P, and K deficiency, little attention has been given to metabolic changes in response of crops to deficiencies of other essential nutrients, such as magnesium (Mg), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), and boron (B) (Table 3).Mg is an important component of chlorophyll and a cofactor for enzymes participating in many physiological processes [88]. It has been reported that Mg deficiency leads to large differentiated metabolic processes in source and sink tissues. For example, Mg deficiency led to leaf-specific accumulation of amino-acid metabolites in soybean, such as phenylalanine, asparagine, leucine, isoleucine, glycine, glutamine, and serine; in contrast, root-specific depletion of pyruvic acid, citrate, 2-keto-glutaric acid, succinic acid, fumaric acid, and malate were observed under Mg deficiency [89]. Mg deficiency also impaired C allocation in soybean, as reflected by significant increases in carbohydrates, such as starch, sucrose, glucose, and fructose in leaves, and moderate decreases in sucrose and starch in roots [89]. These results suggest that reprogramming of distinct C and N metabolisms may occur in the response of soybean leaves and roots to Mg limitation.Fe is the fourth most common element in the Earth's crust, and it is easily fixed into insoluble Fe 3+ precipitates, leading to low availability for plants [90]. Fe limitation affects several metabolic processes, such as photosynthesis and respiration, as well as leads to an increase in ROS [91]. In rice, glycolysis and respiration-related metabolites, such as 3-P-glycerate, 3-P-glycerate derivatives, branched-chain amino acids, and pyruvate derivatives, were found to be increased in roots during low-Fe stress [91]. Furthermore, an increase in phytosiderophore 2 -deoxymugineic acid was observed in rice roots under Fe deficiency [91]. These results suggest that changes in C and energy metabolisms and increasing 2 -deoxymugineic acid secretion are important adaptive mechanisms of rice dealing with Fe deficiency. In addition, in leaves of the betel palm (Areca catechu), significant increases in naringenin, butin, and hesperetin but decreases in xanthohumol, purine, and Np-coumaroylspermidine were observed under Fe deficiency [92], suggesting that regulating biosynthesis of flavonoids and flavonols is an important adaptive strategy for the betel palm in response to Fe deficiency. DAMs, differentially accumulated metabolites; nd, not described in the studies. a Two genotypes used in the studies; b three different degrees of K deficiency. nd, not described in the studies.In tea (Camellia sinensis) plants, Zn deficiency reduced the contents of two secondary metabolites, four carbohydrate metabolites, and four nitrogenous metabolites in leaves [93], indicating that tea plants respond to Zn-deficient stress through regulating carbohydrate, nitrogenous, and secondary metabolisms. Recently, several secondary metabolites, such as sesquiterpene lactones, caffeoyl derivatives, caffeic acid hexose, 5-caffeoylquinic acid, quercetin, and luteolin glucoside derivatives, were found to be regulated by S deficiency in leaves of lettuce (Lactuca sativa) [94]. Furthermore, in alfalfa (Medicago sativa), B deficiency increased the accumulation of sugars and phenolic compounds in flowers and seeds, respectively, which may cause abscission or abortion of reproductive organs [95].Although the results above provide some useful information on the changes in metabolic profiles of crops in response to deficiencies of Mg, Zn, Fe, S, and B, more studies in these areas are needed to increase our understanding of the metabolic mechanisms of crop adaptation.Nutrient deficiency directly limits crop growth and production. With the rapid development of analytical detection technology and bioinformatics, metabolomics has become one of the important technologies in systems biology research to dissect metabolic profile responses of crops to nutrient stress. This review summarized the advances of crop metabolism responses to deficiencies of mineral nutrients and discussed these responses and the underlying adaptive mechanisms. N deficiency seems to impair the whole plant growth, as reflected by decreased N assimilation and TCA cycle, as well as a reduction in most amino acids, which is considered as an energy-saving strategy for tolerance to low-N stress. On the other hand, N deficiency often causes oxidative stress in plants; thus, several stress tolerance-related metabolites, such as galactinol, raffinose, sugar alcohol, and ascorbic acid, are accumulated under N-deficient conditions, contributing to ROS scavenging [38,39]. Regarding low P availability, N and C metabolisms are also affected by Pi deprivation, along with the TCA cycle and membrane phospholipid metabolism. This can be considered as fine-tuning to improve P efficiency in plants. For example, increases in sucrose and amino acids in roots seem to support the enlargement of roots. In addition, the reduction in organic acid metabolites may be attributed to the production of root exudates to mobilize soil P. Furthermore, the reduction in phospholipid metabolites, which are important sources of organic P, may contribute to P reutilization. Unlike N and P, K is not a component of most metabolites, and metabolism changes caused by K deficiency may be helpful for tolerance to osmotic oxidative stresses. N metabolism is also regulated by K deficiency, while the changes in amino acids (e.g., glutathione) may also relate to oxidative stress. Furthermore, several secondary metabolic pathways obviously change under K-deficient conditions, including the phenylpropanoid pathway, where accumulated phenylalanine can be converted into some secondary metabolites and salicylic acid, which are critical for stress tolerance. While accumulation of sugar metabolites is observed under N, P, and K deficiency, the increases in soluble sugars may contribute to maintain osmotic homeostasis during nutrient deficiencies. Therefore, both common and specific metabolites or metabolic pathways can play a part in crop responses to nutrient deficiency. Although more studies are needed, some key clues indicate that regulation of C, N, and energy metabolisms is important for the responses of crops to nutrient deficiencies, especially regarding macroelements. Elucidating the biosynthesis and regulation of crop metabolites during nutrient deficiency can largely increase our understanding of how plants acquire and utilize mineral nutrients under the fluctuating levels of nutrients in soils.Although significant advances in the diverse detection platforms, such as GC-MS, LC-MS, and capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry (CE-MS), have been used in metabolomic analysis, individual platforms are unable to cover all metabolites in plants [96], since the number of identified metabolites varies greatly across different techniques. Thus, making full use of the advantages of different detection platforms, multiplatform detection should be used for comprehensive metabolomic analysis. Although metabolomics data reveal various metabolic pathways regulated by nutrient stress, it remains hard to know whether a metabolic pathway is up-or downregulated, because most changed metabolites may be associated with two or more pathways.The changes in metabolism pathways are usually caused by a number of related functional transcripts rather than individual transcripts. Thus, it is important to integrate transcriptomics and metabolomics to identify the response of key genes or pathways to nutrient deficiency. On the other hand, changes of transcripts may not always correlate to enzyme activities; thus, proteomics can be used to identify key proteins or enzymes. It is also important for a better correlation of the changes between metabolites with genes and proteins, as well as crop growth and development. In consequence, future work is required to integrate analyses of transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics to dissect the mechanisms underlying crop response to nutrient deficiency.Furthermore, as an important bridge between genome and phenome, metabolite-based genome-wide association study (mGWAS) has recently been used in interactive functional genomics and metabolomics to understand the genetic bases of plant metabolism [14,97]. The mGWAS approach is performed to identify key genes involved in specific metabolic pathways in crops. For example, in wheat, several candidate genes were identified as being involved in the flavonoid decoration pathway through mGWAS [98]. Using the mGWAS approach, a genetic network of chlorogenic acid biosynthesis in Populus tomentosa was constructed on the basis of six causal genes [99]. Similar results were also reported in barley for UV-B protection through the regulation of the phenylpropanoid pathway [100]. However, available information about mGWAS used for dissecting mechanisms underlying crop responses to nutrient deficiency is scarce. It is important to identify the critical genes participating in specific metabolic pathways through integration of mGWAS and other omics approaches, which could be used to develop high-nutrient-efficiency crop varieties through genetic improvement in future.","tokenCount":"6111"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"6149886ea44bd33cdd5ee2dafcfc6026","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/31a6b1fb-83c9-401f-99da-dbdb6413069e/retrieve","id":"-842397328"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"7f9591e2-3662-428a-8e68-a368fe569d93","pagecount":"18","content":". Farmers are Willing to Adopt and Pay for Sustainable Agriculture Mechanization Services. Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA), AICCRA Technical Report.The majority of smallholder farmers in Africa depend on manual labour using ancient agricultural tools such as hoes and machetes (Hlophe-Ginindza and Mpandeli, 2021). These forms of manual labor account for about 65% of the total labor needed for land preparation, with draught animal power accounting for 25 percent and engine-powered machines just 10 percent (FAO, 2019). This has necessitated the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices, including mechanization, to achieve the sustainable development goals. The adoption of agricultural mechanization technologies in SSA is still low, its mass promotion did not factor in the near and far future impacts on especially, land and soil structure (Sims and Kienzle, 2017). Conventional mechanization practices have their associated shortcomings in promoting land degradation and contributing to climate change (Daum and Birner, 2020). Thus, the advent of sustainable agricultural mechanization encompasses the complementary effects of tilling the land to lessen the impacts of land degradation whilst enhancing its moisture-holding capacity and enhancing seed germination and crop establishment.Sustainable agricultural mechanization (SAM) involves the adoption and utilization of appropriate machinery, equipment, and technologies to improve farm productivity, efficiency, and profitability while minimizing negative impacts on the environment (Peng et al., 2022). The uptake of sustainable agricultural mechanization technologies can address the challenges of labour, and land degradation and increase productivity. It remains an important aspect of modernizing and enhancing agricultural practices and production while ensuring longterm environmental and social sustainability. It encompasses technological, economic, social, environmental and cultural aspects when contributing to the sustainable development of the food and agricultural sector (Fallah-Shayan et al., 2022).It is in that light that a pilot project is being implemented in Ghana by the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) Ghana Cluster, in collaboration with the African Conservation Tillage Network, the Centre for No-Till Agriculture and the Regional. The pilot program is supported by the Food Systems Resilience Program (FRSP) and the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project through the Korea Green Growth Trust Fund (KGGTF).The study was conducted in Offuman, an AICCRA intervention community in the Bono East region of Ghana.Offuman is predominantly a farming community located in the Techiman North District. A cross-sectional study design was employed to collect data from farmers in the study area. The study also utilized a mixed method approach by combining both qualitative and quantitates methods to capture the perspectives of farmers. A multistage sampling technique was utilized. First, Offuman was purposively selected due to its active participation in the AICCRA Ghana Cluster project and its contribution to agricultural production. A random sampling technique was applied to select forty (40) farmers to be included in the study from a list of farmers provided by the Agricultural Extension Office of the Department of Agriculture in the community. A well-structured questionnaire was developed to collect information on demography, production and mechanization practices, knowledge and perception of sustainable agricultural mechanization and conservation agriculture, access to mechanization services, ability to afford mechanization services, technology usage and ability to access mechanization services online or via mobile phone applications, communication and capacity building needs. The questionnaire was input for online data collection using the Kobocollect app (https://www.kobotoolbox.org/). Qualitative data was gathered through focus group discussions (FGDs) to gain a deeper understanding of the context-specific challenges and opportunities related to their crop production, more especially, access to and use of agricultural mechanization technologies and information in relation to mechanization service providers. To ensure the active participation of both women and men, the FGDs were segregated by gender, with separate discussions conducted for males and females to provide a conducive environment for them to express their opinions and experiences. The gathered data was structured and input into SPSS and STATA software programs for analysis. Descriptive statistics, including frequencies, percentages, and means were computed to summarize the data in tables and charts.Figure 1 illustrates the sex distribution among respondents. The chart reflects a relatively balanced representation of both sexes within the study population, 45.9% were males while 54.1% were females. Females were however relatively more than males. The main agriculture information sources among respondents are presented in Figure 2. The highest reported main agriculture information source among the respondents was the extension officer, with 41% relying on them for agricultural guidance, training, and advisory services. Extension officers play a vital role in providing farmers with relevant information, expertise, and support to improve their agricultural practices. The second highest reported main information source was peers/other farmers and radio broadcasts, with almost 13% of respondents relying on them for agricultural information. Understanding the distribution and significance of these agriculture information sources can help stakeholders and policymakers develop targeted strategies to strengthen and expand the availability of accurate and timely information to farmers. By focusing on the most influential sources, such as extension officers and peer networks, and leveraging mass media platforms  The highest reported source of agricultural educational videos was Facebook/Instagram via mobile phones, which accounted for approximately 32% of the respondents. The popularity of these social media platforms highlights the increasing use of social networking sites for sharing and accessing educational content, including agricultural videos. The second highest reported source was WhatsApp and YouTube installed on mobile phones, both with approximately 21% of the respondents relying on this messaging platform for agricultural educational videos. WhatsApp allows users to share videos among their contacts or within groups, making it a convenient source of information sharing. The widespread use of WhatsApp as a communication tool among farmers makes it an effective medium for disseminating agricultural knowledge. Digitalization could increase access to information, enhance productivity, and profitability, and strengthen resilience for smallholders and communities, as well as climate change responses (Abdulai et al., 2023). Table 1 provides information on the willingness of respondents to use a phone app to request for tractor services and the amount they are willing to pay for the tractor service. Regarding the willingness to use a tractor service app, a majority of respondents, 62%, expressed their willingness to use such an app. This indicates a positive attitude towards adopting technology for accessing tractor services. This positive attitude, however, is high among males with almost all of them (94%) showing a willingness to use a tractor service application. The low levels of app illiteracy and unfamiliarity among females are reflected in a majority of them (65%) expressing unwillingness to use such an application. The findings in Table 4 suggest that a majority of respondents are open to using a phone app to request tractor services and also pay for the services of convenience, indicating the potential for technology-driven solutions in the agricultural sector. Awareness and education on smartphone applications for tractor services should be promoted among women farmers considering their low awareness level and willingness to adopt the technology relative to men. Regarding capacity building in conservation agriculture (CA) and sustainable agriculture mechanization (SAM), 32% and 17% of the respondents reported receiving training in this area respectively (Figure 4). However, the majority (68% and 83% respectively) indicated that they have not received such training. In terms of practicing conservation agriculture, 57% and 11% of the respondents stated that they engage in some form of CA and SAM respectively, while 43% and 89% reported not practicing it. When asked about their knowledge of any sustainable agricultural mechanization benefits, 27% of the respondents reported having such knowledge, while 73% indicated that they did not know the benefits. These findings suggest that there is a need for increased capacity building and knowledge dissemination in conservation agriculture and sustainable agricultural mechanization. Efforts should be made to provide training opportunities and raise awareness among farmers about the benefits and practices associated with these approaches. According to Van Loon (2020) capacity building of potential mechanization hire service providers, strengthening cooperation, as well as collaboration, through partnerships and mutual support among smallholder farmers is important. Table 2 presents the ranking of preferred training areas based on the respondents' mean ranks. Garrett's ranking method was used to analyze the rankings. The value of Kendall's W is 0.683, indicating that there is 68.3% agreement among the respondents of the rankings and the p-value of 0.000 indicates the ranking is statistically significant. The lower the mean rank, the higher the preference for the training area. According to the rankings, conservation agriculture received the highest preference, with a mean rank of 1.59. This was followed by sustainable methods of land preparation (1.97), good agronomic practices (3.52), and climatesmart agriculture (5.57). According to Mohamad (2023), it is clear that there is a reasonable and logical relationship between the transfer of sustainability training and farmers' behavior, which needs the integration of behavioral issues with the training transfer system. In this way, farmers will gain sustainability knowledge, attitude, and skills through teamwork with extension agents and researchers and apply them to their farms. In terms of capacity-building preference in SAM, different preferences for sustainable agricultural mechanization interventions were observed (Figure 5). The highest preference was for land preparation with a crimper, which was chosen by almost 29% of the respondents. The ripper was the next preferred intervention, selected by approximately 20% of the respondents. Other preferences included no-till planting/seeding (15%), slashing for weed management (12.60%), land preparation with a slasher (12%), and ripping and seeding (9%). Understanding the intervention preferences of farmers is crucial for designing appropriate mechanization programs and providing targeted support to promote sustainable agricultural practices. Daum and Birner (2017) observed that young farmers demand mechanization services because manual work is associated with drudgery and low productivity, and makes agriculture unattractive. Figure 6 illustrates the respondents' willingness to adopt or try sustainable agricultural mechanization practices. The data shows that the majority of respondents (97.20%) expressed a positive attitude and indicated their willingness to engage in sustainable agricultural mechanization. None of the respondents however expressed non-willingness to try or adopt SAM practices but 2.80%) were not sure. (…many of our colleague farmers will come on board once they realize we are successful in the use of SAM tools… -Adult male farmer, Focus group discussion). The high percentage of respondents expressing a willingness to try or adopt SAM is positive for improving agricultural outcomes. According to Sims and Emmanuel (2016), the increased availability of mechanization technologies not only enhances yields for smallholders but enables a more rational and efficient approach to farming in the long term and thus increases the prospect of sustained profitability over time.  Furthermore, the respondents were willing to pay for the various SAM interventions (Figure 7). In terms of specific interventions, the respondents showed a willingness to pay within a certain range for each activity.(…the adoption of these machines you talk about will depend on the availability and how much it will cost… -Adult male farmer, Focus group discussion). For land preparation with a crimper, the respondents were willing to pay between 100 GH₵ and 220 GH₵, with a mean of 153 GH₵. Land preparation with a slasher had a minimum willingness-to-pay of 100 GH₵ and a maximum of 200 GH₵, with a mean of 142 GH₵. The willingness to pay demonstrates the potential benefits associated with sustainable mechanization, including increased productivity and efficiency in agricultural practices. Further, understanding farmers' preferences and their willingness to adopt and pay for SAM interventions can inform the design of appropriate support programs and financial mechanisms to facilitate the adoption of sustainable mechanization practices. Figure 8 illustrates the respondents' intentions on how to finance the payment for SAM tool services. The data reveals that the majority of respondents, accounting for 53%, intend to rely on village savings and loans as their primary source of financing. This indicates a strong reliance on local financial systems within their communities. Personal savings represent another significant financing method, with the second majority (22%) of respondents intending to utilize their savings to cover the costs of SAM tool services. Family and friends also play a role in financing, with 15.80% of respondents planning to seek financial assistance from their close social circles. In contrast, only a small proportion of respondents, 7% and 2% respectively, expressed their intention to acquire loans from cooperatives or microfinance institutions/banks. This suggests that formal financial institutions may have limited involvement in financing agricultural activities.  The majority of farmers expressed willingness to adopt sustainable agricultural mechanization (SAM) interventions. The adoption of conservation agriculture and sustainable agricultural mechanization practices is relatively low, and there is a need for increased knowledge and capacity building in these areas. Regarding knowledge and capacity building, a significant proportion of farmers have received capacity building in conservation agriculture, but the adoption rate is relatively low. Similarly, there is a lack of awareness and training in sustainable agricultural mechanization. Farmers show a strong willingness to try SAM activities and prefer specific tools for land preparation, seeding, and weed management. The study also reveals mixed levels of knowledge and capacity building in conservation agriculture and sustainable agricultural mechanization, indicating a need for targeted training programs. Financing for SAM tool services predominantly relies on village savings and loans, while other sources such as personal savings and support from family and friends play a role.Based on the findings from the study, the following are recommended:Capacity Building: Develop and implement comprehensive training programs focused on conservation agriculture, sustainable agricultural mechanization, climate-smart agriculture, climate information service, and good agronomic practices. These programs should target farmers and other relevant stakeholders such as agricultural extension officers, mechanization service providers, and mechanization equipment operators.The training modules should entail the practices and benefits of conservation agriculture and sustainable agricultural mechanization through various channels, including farmer-to-farmer knowledge sharing, extension services, and community-based workshops and demonstration of SAM technologies.Promote awareness of online sustainable mechanization service apps and platforms: Increase awareness and access to sustainable mechanization services through online platforms and apps could be made in the form of short videos, jingles, television, and community information centers. Facilitate access to finance: Farmers and other relevant stakeholders should be encouraged in the form of Innovation Platforms (IPs) and Farmer-Based Organizations (FBOs). The capacity of the group should be built in the areas of bookkeeping, marketing, and other aspects to facilitate the group's access to farm inputs and financial services. Existing village savings and loan systems should be strengthened.Policy support: Advocate for supportive policies and incentives that encourage the adoption of conservation agriculture and sustainable agricultural mechanization. This may include tax incentives, subsidies, and policy frameworks that prioritize and promotes sustainable farming practices.By implementing these recommendations, there is the potential to increase adoption of conservation agriculture and sustainable agricultural mechanization, leading to improved farm productivity, resource use efficiency, and the overall sustainability of agricultural systems.","tokenCount":"2447"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"f292826fc9ee4f7307d344deea8eb608","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/42c34412-5509-492b-867a-513ddf6fb5a1/retrieve","id":"-1639761686"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"c0b4838b-2088-4536-a1c9-31755ebb075e","pagecount":"17","content":"Biofortified cassava (Manihot esculenta) plays a crucial role in enhancing the nutritional value of this essential staple, particularly in regions with limited dietary diversity and prevalent nutritional deficiencies. The cassava program at the International Center of Tropical Agriculture has dedicated over a decade to increase β-carotene content in biofortified cassava, simultaneously focusing on improving yield, dry matter, and plant architecture. This paper presents realized genetic gains in biofortified cassava by analyzing the data from replicated multilocation breeding yield trials at the target population of environments spanning a 10-year period (2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022). Following data curation, we observed significant positive genetic gains per year for β-carotene content (7.03%), fresh yield (4.15%), dry matter content (0.55%), and height at the first branch (1.29%). A negative correlation between β-carotene content and dry matter content was observed within 78% of trials. Moreover, our study uncovered a significant negative correlation between β-carotene content and fresh root yield (r = −0.22, p < 0.01) and an unfavorable positive correlation between βcarotene content and the number of branches (r = 0.23, p < 0.01). Such negative correlations between β-carotene content and farm-preferred traits presented substantial challenges for the development of biofortified cassava varieties. This researchThis is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.Hidden hunger affects more than 3 billion people globally, mostly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (Lowe, 2021). This problem is more pronounced in low-income countries, where people cannot afford a diverse diet rich in essential vitamins and minerals. Vitamin A deficiency, which leads to impaired vision, night blindness, increased risk of infection/death, and poor pregnancy outcomes, is particularly alarming in these regions (Akhtar et al., 2013). Biofortification, the improvement of the nutritional quality of food crops, offers a practical and affordable solution to hidden hunger, especially for the millions of small-scale producers who consume what they grow (Pfeiffer & McClafferty, 2007;Welch & Graham, 2004). Cassava, originating from the South American tropics, has become a staple of global agriculture. Since being introduced to West Africa in the 16th century, cassava has spread to tropical regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, where it is now a staple food and source of income for more than 800 million people (International Cassava Genetic Map Consortium, 2015;Chavarriaga-Aguirre et al., 2016). However, cassava is considered a poor source of micronutrients and protein, especially the white roots that are most commonly consumed fresh and/or used for starch production. It provides less than 30% of the minimum daily requirement for protein and essential micronutrients, including iron, zinc, and provitamin A. Heavy reliance on cassava contributes to the widespread prevalence of vitamin A deficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly among children. For example, in Nigeria, the world's leading producer of cassava, 29.5% of children under five suffer from vitamin A deficiency (Maziya-Dixon et al., 2004). The lack of vitamin A leads to blindness, dry skin, and frequent infections, which is why biofortification has been emphasized to improve the nutritive value of cassava, especially to increase its carotenoid content (Njoku et al., 2011). Among the different classes of carotenoids (e.g., lutein, zeaxanthin, lycopene, etc.), β-carotene is considered the most nutritionally important form of provitamin A in plants because it is most easily metabolized by the human body into retinol (Sayre et al., 2011;Schaub et al., 2017). The acceptability of yellow cassava in Africa has been documented (Esuma et al., 2019;Oparinde et al., 2016), indicating that biofortified cassava with high β-carotene content can substantially contribute to addressing vitamin A deficiency, with significant benefits for low-income populations.Biotechnological genetic transformation approaches have the potential to accelerate product development and address genetic constraints that may hinder conventional cassava breeding approaches (Chavarriaga-Aguirre et al., 2016;Sayre et al., 2011). One of the key advantages of genetic engineering in cassava improvement is its ability to overcome the challenges of high heterozygosity and trait segregation, which are common constraints in conventional breeding. Biotechnological methods have been instrumental in understanding the genes responsible for increasing β-carotene content and developing new genetic materials with increased β-carotene content (Beyene et al., 2018;Njoku et al., 2011;Sayre et al., 2011;Welsch et al., 2010). However, the increase of β-carotene content in a biotechnological experiment showed a substantial negative effect on dry matter content, specifically, reductions Crop Science of 50%−60% of dry matter content (Beyene et al., 2018). Moreover, due to policy constraints and concerns of farmers and consumers, biofortified cassava germplasm developed from genetic engineering experiments has not been used in new variety development and release.The identification of germplasm with yellow root pigmentation and other desirable traits has been facilitated by the largest cassava genebank, named Future Seeds, at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT; Ferguson et al., 2019). Systematic screening of the genebank germplasm and selection of biofortified cassava varieties for plant breeding have revealed a wide range of genotypes suitable for biofortification (Chavez et al., 2000;Iglesias et al., 1997). Conventional breeding has played a pivotal role in the development of new cassava varieties with increased βcarotene content (Ceballos et al., 2013;Iglesias et al., 1997). These efforts have resulted in improved tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses, increased productivity and yield, and improvements in qualitative traits such as starch quality and carotenoid content (Ceballos et al., 2013). The improved germplasm with increased β-carotene content has been shared and widely used for variety development and release by breeding programs in Africa, significantly contributing to the combat against the hidden hunger caused by vitamin A deficiency (Njoku et al., 2011).The β-carotene content in cassava is mainly controlled by genetic factors, with the broad-sense heritability ranging from 0.73 to 0.82 (Ceballos et al., 2013;de Carvalho et al., 2022;Njoku et al., 2011). Genomewide association analysis has uncovered the genetic architecture of β-carotene content in cassava, pinpointing the major locus on Chr 1 that explained 70% of phenotypic variation in an African breeding population (Rabbi et al., 2017). This significant locus on Chr 1 has been consistently reported and confirmed through multiple studies (Esuma et al., 2016;Ikeogu et al., 2019;Rabbi et al., 2022). The phytoene synthase 2 (PSY2) gene emerges as the candidate gene, and its function has been confirmed in a transgenic study (Welsch et al., 2010). A kompetitive allele-specific PCR marker has been developed based on the variation of the PSY2 gene for marker-assisted selection (https://excellenceinbreeding.org/). Although other quantitative trait loci (QTL) have also been reported, their effects in diverse backgrounds remain unconfirmed or invalidated.Since β-carotene content is closely related to root flesh color intensity (Chavez et al., 2000;Iglesias et al., 1997;Moorthy et al., 1990), visual observation was used at the early stage of biofortified cassava breeding. However, visual evaluation is subjective and often imprecise, especially in the case of nonuniform distribution of carotenoids in cassava roots (Ceballos et al., 2012;Ortiz et al., 2011). To increase the accuracy and efficiency of selection for high β-carotene content, cassava breeding programs have developed and implemented near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) prediction protocols using mixed mash samples (Abincha et al., 2020;Alamu et al.,• The biofortified cassava population was simultaneously improved over a decade for quality and agronomic traits. • Significant rates of genetic gains were achieved in β-carotene content, yield, dry matter, and plant architecture. • Negative correlations were observed between βcarotene content and dry matter, as well as fresh root yield. • The observed trade-offs present substantial challenges in developing biofortified cassava cultivars.). With over 3000 samples, CIAT developed NIRS prediction for both β-carotene content and total carotenoids, achieving accuracy with an R 2 > 0.92 (Sánchez et al., 2014).The implementation of high-throughput tools represents a significant advance in the modernization of breeding programs and has made a profound contribution to genetic gains of biofortified cassava at CIAT (Ceballos et al., 2007). Genetic gain as a key performance indicator has been used to assess the efficiency of breeding programs (Rutkoski, 2019). Genetic gain is derived from the response to selection in breeding practice. Following the response to selection (Falconer & Mackay, 1996), genetic gain is determined by four key components: useful genetic diversity, selection accuracy and intensity, and duration of a breeding cycle. Based on the estimation of the four components in breeding populations, the expected genetic gain can be calculated, serving as a leading indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of breeding strategies (Gaynor et al., 2021;Falconer & Mackay, 1996;Walsh & Lynch, 2018). Using historical breeding data and era trial data, genetic gains can be calculated using means and/or breeding values, such as best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) and best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs), to measure response to selection across breeding cycles (Mackay et al., 2011;Piepho et al., 2014;Piepho & Möhring, 2007;Rutkoski, 2019). For biofortified cassava, assessing genetic gain is critical to track progress in improving traits such as dry matter content, fresh root yield, plant architecture, and βcarotene content, which are the essential traits in the target product profile (Montagnac et al., 2009).Target product profile defines desired traits and standards that new varieties must meet to address nutritional challenges and improve agronomic performance effectively. In the case of biofortified cassava varieties for the target population of environments (TPE) of subhumid and semiarid lowland tropics, essential traits and their specific thresholds have been established by breeding programs and market intelligence teams and documented in the CGIAR Breeding Portal (https://cimmyt-eibp-prd.azurewebsites.net/login).The essential traits include fresh root yield, dry matter content, β-carotene content, number of branches, height at the first branch, and cooking quality. The target product profile ensures that the developed varieties contribute to improving nutritional deficiencies and adhere to agronomic viability and effectiveness. In the present study, we report the realized genetic gains in these essential traits, except for cooking quality, due to the lack of evaluation protocols previously (Tran et al., 2021). Assessing the realized genetic gains in biofortified cassava marks historical achievements and serves as a guiding compass for future development. In the present study, we focus on three key objectives: (1) calculating and reporting the realized genetic gains for essential traits of biofortified cassava, (2) evaluating the relationship between β-carotene content and essential agronomic traits, and (3) engaging in a comprehensive discussion on the direction of biofortified cassava breeding to enhance the effectiveness of delivering new varieties that align with farmer preferences.We used a biofortified (nutritionally enhanced) cassava breeding population that was improved over time (10+ years) for increased β-carotene (provitamin A) content. The founders (original progenitors) are part of CIAT genebank Future Seeds, which hosts the world's largest collection (>6000) of cassava accessions. The donor accessions (e.g., BRA1A, BRA1107, BRA1321, COL2489, COL2547, CR81, CR87, and PER297) were selected based on their cream or yellow fresh color. These β-carotene donor accessions were crossed with each other to increase the carotenoid content (Figure 1). Additionally, they were crossed with progenitors from advanced breeding pipelines to improve the agronomic traits, including fresh root yield, dry matter content, and plant architecture (Table S1).The biofortified population consists of 914 cassava clones in 449 full-or half-sib families. These cassava clones were field tested in 90 breeding trials over a period of 10 years from 2013 to 2022.Considering the high broad-sense heritability of β-carotene content, its evaluations were done at the single-row trial stage in unreplicated field trials at the CIAT campus, Palmira (medium-altitude tropics). In later stages, the biofortified population was planted in the northern coast of Colombia (Caribbean lowlands) in a randomized complete block design, which encompasses subhumid and semiarid low-F I G U R E 1 Pedigree of a biofortified cassava clone, GM9740-1, showcasing its progenitors. GM9740-1 is derived from a selection of six β-carotene donor accessions sourced from the CIAT (International Center for Tropical Agriculture) genebank, namely, BRA1107, COL2547, BRA1321, PER297, BRA1A, and MAL66. The genebank accessions are named after their origin country code, for example, BRA for Brazil, COL for Colombia, PER for Peru, and MAL for Malaysia. The nomenclature of breeding clones follows a systematic convention, where the family includes identifiers such as GM for a full-sib family, SM for a half-sib family, and AM for a selfing family, accompanied by a unique clone number. land tropical regions (Figure 2). These tropical lowland conditions belong to the TPE and represent the conditions where more than 50% of the world's cassava is cultivated (Hershey, 2020).More than 50% of the trials were established in farmers' fields (under real cassava production environments) and spanning 10 years (2013-2022) at three field evaluation stages as part of the CIAT cassava breeding pipeline (Ceballos et al., 2016), namely, preliminary yield trial (PYT), advanced yield trial (AYT), and uniform yield trial (UYT). Plot size, replications, and locations were progressively increased in each yield trial stage. We used an average planting distance of 1 m × 1 m (average planting density of 10,000 plants ha −1 ). At least four checks (released varieties) were shared between any two given years (Figure 3a) and helped connect the field trials and account for environmental effects.We followed CIAT standard operating procedure on agronomic management of cassava field breeding trials (Hershey, 2020) and used (as much as possible) the management practices adopted by small-scale cassava growers. The trials were grown under rainfed conditions, weeds were controlled manually using a tool (hoe), and fertilizers were not applied. Pest incidence was monitored weekly for thrips (Corynothrips stenopterus), mites (Mononychellus tanajoa, Mononychellus caribbeanae, and Tetranychus urcinus), hornworm (Erinnyis ello), and whitefly (Trialeurodes variabilis and Aleurotrachelus socialis). Pesticides (chemical control) were sprayed when needed to reduce pest populations.Traits were selected according to the cassava breeding objectives that were defined based on the target product profiles of biofortified cassava (Ceballos et al., 2021). We targeted four traits (one for quality and three agronomic traits) to calculate rates of realized genetic gains in biofortified cassava: (1) β-carotene content, (2) fresh root yield, (3) dry matter content, and (4) plant architecture (Table 1). Traits were measured based on the conceptual description and standard operating procedure of the CGIAR cassava trait ontology (https:// cassavabase.org/tools/onto/) for consistent trait definition and measurement.β-Carotene content (µg g −1 fresh weight) was quantified using the NIRS equipment Foss NIRSystem 6500 (Jaramillo et al., 2018). NIRS sample capsules, each containing approximately 8 g of homogenized mashed fresh cassava root samples, underwent diffuse reflectance scanning between 400 and 2500 nm at 2-nm intervals, generating an average from 32 scans. β-Carotene content was only quantified in early breeding populations (single-row trial) grown at CIAT, Palmira (medium-altitude tropics), taking advantage of the high heritability of this trait (Ceballos et al., 2013;Chavez et al., 2005;Iglesias et al., 1997;Morillo Coronado, 2009;Njoku et al., 2015).Fresh root yield was measured on a plot basis in 904 clones across 65 trials during eight growing seasons (2013-2022) using the following equation:(1) where FRY is the fresh root yield (expressed in t ha −1 ), RWP is the root weight per plot, APP is area per plant (m 2 ), and NPH is the number of plants we plan to harvest (constant per trial).Dry matter content (%) was estimated in 914 clones across 77 trials during nine growing seasons (2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022). The measurements were obtained indirectly from an in-field test (specific gravity method) according to the following equations (Fukuda et al., 2010)where SG is the specific gravity of 4-5 kg of weighted cassava roots, RW air is the weight of roots in air, and RW water is the weight of roots immersed in water,where DM is the dry matter content and SG is the specific gravity.Plant architecture (number of branches and height at the first branch in cm) was measured 1 week before harvest in 338 clones across 38 trials over eight growing seasons (2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022).F I G U R E 3 Breeding field trial information on (a) the number of shared clones between two given years for dry matter evaluation and (b) the distribution of broad-sense heritability for the target traits per trial. Heritability for β-carotene content was not computed because this trait was measured in unreplicated trials in the single-row trial stage.T A B L E 1 Experimental overview of the multiyear (2013-2022) and multilocation breeding field trials that were used to calculate realized genetic gains in quality and agronomic traits of biofortified cassava.Period of trials aFresh The breeding trial data were stored in CassavaBase (https:// cassavabase.org/), an open-access online database/repository for cassava breeders and researchers (Fernandez-Pozo et al., 2015). The datasets used to calculate realized genetic gains in the target traits were downloaded from CassavaBase using the R package QBMS (Al-Shamaa, 2023) using a custom script (https://cassava2050.github.io/cassava_base_data/ cassava_base_data.html) to retrieve the historical data  from CIAT Cassava Breeding Program. We filtered the datasets by trial name, location, and trial stage (PYT, AYT, and UYT) and selected the biofortified breeding populations that were field-tested over the years for β-carotene content, yield, dry matter, and plant architecture at the TPE (northern coast of Colombia). Exploratory data analysis and quality control were conducted using the R package tidyverse (Wickham et al., 2019) to check for trial layout information and to name clones and locations using standard nomenclature. Data points that had a residual greater or less than three standard deviations from the mean were declared outliers and removed from the analysis. The cleaned datasets were used to run single and multipleenvironmental trial analysis and eventually to calculate rates of realized genetic gains in the target traits. Data analysis information, R scripts, and outputs can be found at https:// github.com/Cassava2050/2022_genetic_gain_biofortified.We computed broad sense heritability (H 2 ) within individual trials for all traits except for β-carotene content, which was measured in unreplicated trials in the single-row trial stage. The within-trial H 2 was calculated using the following equation:where V BLUP is the mean variance difference of two breeding clones based on BLUPs and \uD835\uDF0E 2 \uD835\uDC54 is the variance of breeding clones. We fitted a linear mixed-effects model (Equation 5) to estimate the variance components using the R package lme4 (function lmer) (Bates et al., 2015).where y is the response variable, X is the design matrix for the fixed effects, β is the vector of fixed effects, Z is the design matrix for the random effects, u is the vector of random effects (breeding clone) and ϵ is the vector of residual errors. Trials with heritability lower than 0.1 were excluded from the multienvironmental trial analysis and the realized genetic gain calculations.We computed the best linear unbiased estimations (BLUEs) for each clone across traits (except for β-carotene content due to the unreplicated design of these field trials) using the R package ASReml-R (function asreml) (Butler et al., 2023) for fitting linear mixed-effects models (Equation 6). We tested five different linear mixed-effects models and selected the one with the lowest Akaike information criterion score. In the chosen model, breeding clone and testing year were specified as fixed effects, while trial, trial:clone diagonal covariance structure, and replication (nested within trial) were specified as random effects terms.where y is the response vector, β is the vector for fixed effects (year and breeding clones), X is the incidence matrix that connects observations with the vector of fixed effects, u d is the vector of random effects for trial by replication, u g is the vector of random effects for breeding clone by trial, Z d and Z g are the matrices that connect observations with the vectors of random effects u d and u g , and ϵ is the residual error.We focused on the multilocation replicated yield trials (PYT, AYT, and UYT) at the target population of environments to ensure consistent and high-quality phenotypic data for genetic gain calculations. BLUE values for fresh root yield, dry matter, number of branches, and height at the first branch were used in a simple linear regression-based approach to cal-culate rates of realized genetic gains (Mackay et al., 2011).For β-carotene content, we used clone mean values from unreplicated single-row trials.Traits were regressed against crossing year (the time when the breeding cohorts were developed) to obtain the rates of genetic gain per year, which were given by the slope of the linear regression line and indicated the annual change in the trait value. The intercept denoted the hypothetical value of the trait at the onset of the breeding program (year zero in the regression equation). Equation ( 7) also predicted the trait values for the first and last year of the study period.where y is the BLUE value of breeding clones, X is the design matrix for the fixed effect crossing year, β is a vector of coefficients, including the intercept and the effect of crossing year, and ϵ is a vector of residual errors.The relative (percentage) rate of realized genetic gain was computed for each trait from the ratio of the regression slope to the trait value at the first crossing year (year 1). This ratio (Equation 8) showed the relative change/increase in trait values per year and was an indicator of the selection efficiency in our cassava breeding program.In this study, we present the rates of realized genetic gains for both quality (β-carotene content) and agronomic (fresh root yield, dry matter content, and plant architecture) traits in a biofortified cassava population that was genetically improved through five cycles of phenotypic recurrent selection over a period of 10 years (Figure 1). The breeding population was evaluated at multiple trial stages in the TPE, that is, subhumid and semiarid lowland tropics, represented by Caribbean lowlands on the northern coast of Colombia (Figure 2). Across all trials, we observed moderate to high broad-sense heritability (H 2 ) with a mean of 0.72 for fresh root yield and 0.83 for dry matter (Table 1; Figure 3b). The relatively high heritability indicated that the field trials were well-managed, capturing the genetic variance while reducing the environmental variation and noise and providing a solid foundation for accessing genetic gains achieved.We observed significant improvements in the nutritional quality and agronomic performance of the cassava biofortified populations over a period of 10+ years from 2007 to 2017. β-Carotene content values ranged from 1.30-10.90 in the 2007 base population to 6.20-18.12 µg g −1 fresh weight in the latest 2017 cohort, representing an overall enhancement of 86.23% (Table 2). The relative rates of realized genetic gains for βcarotene content were found to be 7.03% per year compared to the initial breeding population and 5.20% per year relative to the population mean (Table 2; Figure 4a). These results are consistent with the substantial increase in β-carotene content that we observed over time.In addition to the nutritional trait, we also improved the biofortified population in agronomic performance, especially fresh root yield, dry matter content, and plant architecture. We achieved high rates of realized genetic gains in fresh root The current breeding population was derived from the crosses made in 2017.yield: 4.15% per year compared to the initial breeding population (2017 vs. 2007) and 3.44% relative to the population mean (Table 2; Figure 4b). Conversely, yearly rates of realized genetic gains in dry matter (0.55%), number of branches (0.83%), and height at the first branch (1.29%) were relatively low (Table 2; Figure 4c-e). Likewise, height at the first branch (above 110 cm) remained stable during the initial breeding cycles in the biofortified populations, only to undergo a substantial increase (156-180 cm) in late breeding populations (2015-2017; Table 2; Figure 4d). All in all, these observations provide an encouraging indication of the potential for simultaneous genetic improvement in both nutritional value (β-carotene content) and agronomic performance (yield and dry matter content). The consistent positive genetic gains across these traits showcase the success of the biofortified cassava breeding team (Figure 4).Pearson's correlation showed a nonsignificant negative association between β-carotene content and dry matter content when considering all trials and years (Figure 5a,b). However, we observed a significant negative correlation in a big portion of the individual field trials (46 out of 59) (Figure 5d). It is essential to note that only trials with more than 15 clones were included in the analysis, ensuring a robust dataset for correlation assessment (Figure 5d-f). Furthermore, we also observed a significant negative correlation between β-carotene content and fresh root yield (Pearson's r = −0.22, p < 0.01; Figure 5c).These negative correlations indicated the trade-offs between nutritional quality and yield in biofortified cassava. However, the breeding program achieved substantial positive genetic gains in β-carotene content, yield, and dry matter content. These seemingly counterintuitive results can be explained by the exotic background of the β-carotene donors, which had high β-carotene content but low yield potential. Through successive selection cycles, this trade-off was successfully reversed, leading to a remarkable improvement of these traits simultaneously.Investigating plant architecture traits, we did not find a significant correlation between β-carotene content and height at the first branch, but we did observe a significant positive correlation between β-carotene content and number of branches (r = 0.23, p < 0.01; Figure 5a). For the two plant architecture traits, we found a significant negative correlation between them (r = −0.68, p < 0.01). Notably, based on the target product profile, the ideotype preferred by farmers is described as a cassava plant with a desirable height at the first branch but a low number of branches. The CIAT cassava breeding program has been focusing on developing and delivering science-based solutions to the major global cassava production challenges, such as cassava brown streak disease (Sheat et al., 2019(Sheat et al., , 2022)), cassava mosaic disease (Akano et al., 2002), and provitamin A deficiency (Ceballos et al., 2021;Chávez et al., 2000Chávez et al., , 2005)). Moreover, the focus climate or TPE is subhumid and semiarid lowland tropics, represented by the Caribbean coastal region of Colombia. The regions under this climate account for more than 50% of the global cassava production (Hershey, 2020).At TPE, we have achieved significant genetic gains in biofortified cassava improvement, not only in the nutritional trait, β-carotene content (7.03% per year), but also in fresh root yield (4.15% per year). Since the CIAT breeding team always rents farmers' fields for yield trialing at TPE, we can consider that the genetic gains were realized on farmers' fields by following farmers' management practices such as sloped lands, rainy season planting, rainfed conditions, no fertilizer application, and a planting density of approximately 10,000 plants ha −1 (Hershey, 2020).Based on the breeder's equation, the rate of genetic gains was determined by four key components, that is, useful genetic diversity, duration of a breeding cycle, and selection accuracy and intensity (Rutkoski, 2019). The realized genetic gains in biofortified cassava were mainly derived from two components: useful genetic diversity and selection accuracy. CIAT has the largest cassava genebank with more than 6000 accessions collected from diverse regions. The first genebank-wise screening of high β-carotene content started before 2000 (Chavez et al., 2000), and the first cross for population improvement of biofortified cassava was initiated in 2003 (Ceballos et al., 2013). Multiple donors of β-carotene from diverse regions contributed to the favorable allele stack, supporting the continuous increase of β-carotene in breeding populations. Moreover, the biofortified cassava breeding was built on top of more than 40 years of cassava improvement at CIAT (Ceballos et al., 2021). The elite breeding progenitors and β-carotene donors were used to form the biofortified cassava breeding populations. The useful genetic diversity from elite breeding progenitors significantly contributed to the realized genetic gains in agronomic traits, for example, fresh root yield and height at the first branch.The increased selection accuracy in biofortified cassava benefited from the close collaborative relationship between the cassava breeding team and the root quality laboratory at CIAT (Belalcazar et al., 2016;Ceballos et al., 2013;Chavez et al., 2000;Chávez et al., 2005;Sánchez et al., 2014). As an integral part of the multi-disciplinary cassava program, the two teams have been collaborating seamlessly in all stages, from planting to harvesting, processing, and result review. We started by screening genebank accessions to identify the trait donors with high β-carotene content (Chavez et al., 2000;Chávez et al., 2005) and then developed protocols for quality traits, including high-throughput NIRS prediction for dry matter content and β-carotene content, as well as medium-throughput water absorption for cassava cooking time and mealiness (Belalcazar et al., 2016;Sánchez et al., 2014;Tran et al., 2021). The root quality lab at CIAT routinely screens cassava breeding populations for quality and nutrition improvement. To enhance farmers' adoption of the developed varieties, the breeding team and root quality lab will further collaborate to understand cassava cooking quality, develop high-throughput tools, and implement protocols for evaluating breeding populations.Measuring quality traits in the TPE has been challenging because of the high cost and the complicated logistics during transportation from the trial locations to the root quality lab. Now, the CIAT root quality lab is developing NIRS prediction models for dry matter content, β-carotene content, and water absorption using a portable NIRS, QualitySpec (Ikeogu et al., 2017). The protocol will enable in-field measurements of quality and nutritional traits, overcoming logistical issues and reducing costs from the complicated root transportation. The in-field measurement of quality traits will facilitate the high selection intensity of breeding populations and, in turn, achieve high genetic gains.It has been reported that β-carotene is distributed unevenly in cassava roots (Ceballos et al., 2012), so food scientists developed protocols to grind the roots and mix and unify the root mash before taking the measurement (Ortiz et al., 2011). Mixing root mash will provide representative samples and give an accurate measurement of β-carotene content, but the uneven distribution of β-carotene was ignored. Recently, a new technology, hyperspectral imaging, has been tested and validated in estimating the distribution of dry matter in roots (Meghar et al., 2023). Once implemented in biofortified cassava breeding, this technology will allow for the selection of varieties with not only high β-carotene content but also evenly distributed storage roots.Here, we also want to highlight the significance of a centralized data management system, CassavaBase (Fernandez-Pozo et al., 2015). All the breeding trials, dating back to 1982, were managed in CassavaBase. The availability of formatted historical data is critical for estimating genetic gains of the biofortified cassava breeding pipeline. Moreover, the uniform format allows for developing a standardized data analysis pipeline, ensuring quick data analysis turnover and facilitating timely, data-driven decision-making in our breeding practices.The presence of a negative correlation between dry matter content and β-carotene content has been widely reported in transgenic experiments and breeding populations (Beyene et al., 2018;Rabbi et al., 2017). In the present study, we also observed negative correlations in 78% of cassava breeding trials. Although previous reports from CIAT biofortified populations indicated a nonnegative correlation (Ceballos et al., 2013;Sánchez et al., 2014), the observed inconsistency might be mainly derived from differences in population types and breeding stages. Especially at the advanced breeding stage evaluated in this study, characterized by intensive selection for high dry matter and high β-carotene, a significant negative correlation between dry matter content and β-carotene content was frequently observed.A similar negative correlation between dry matter content and β-carotene content has been reported in other root crops, including sweet potato and potato (Gemenet et al., 2020). The negative correlation resulted in reduced dry matter in the orange sweet potato varieties; nevertheless, dry matter content is one of the primary factors determining the adoption of improved orange varieties in Africa. Dry matter content is also a determinant factor for the adoption of new varieties of granulated and paste cassava products like gari and fufu (Teeken et al., 2020). Considering the importance of dry matter content in biofortified root crops, studies have been conducted to uncover its genetic basis in cassava and sweet potato (Gemenet et al., 2020;Rabbi et al., 2017). Genetic mapping efforts have identified QTL associated with high β-carotene and low dry matter content, suggesting that genetic linkage is likely to cause the observed negative correlation. However, considering the reports that the accumulation of carotenoids affects the development of cell walls and starch synthesis (Ernesto Bianchetti et al., 2018;Oleszkiewicz et al., 2021), we should be cautious in dismissing the pleiotropy hypothesis of the major QTL. Further research is required, including breaking the genetic linkage through recombination or manipulating the phytoene synthase (PSY) gene, such as through overexpression or mutation. These studies will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the interaction between the β-carotene pathway and dry matter accumulation, paving the way for developing biofortified cassava varieties that balance both nutritional and agronomic traits.The advancement of biofortified cassava breeding, despite significant achievements, faces several challenges that need careful consideration for sustained progress and success-ful delivery to small-scale producers and consumers. As a clonally propagated crop, cassava has been improved using heterozygous parents (Ceballos et al., 2016). Due to the severe inbreeding depression of heterozygous parents of cassava, backcrossing-based trait introgression has been challenging in cassava improvement (de Freitas et al., 2016;Rojas et al., 2009). Multiple cycles of recurrent selection or pseudo-backcrossing are required to introduce high βcarotene content as well as improve agronomic traits such as dry matter content, fresh root yield, and cooking quality (Ceballos et al., 2013). Over the last decade, we have made significant progress, increasing β-carotene content from 6.90 to 12.85 µg g −1 fresh weight at the level of breeding population means. However, improvement in dry matter content, fresh root yield, and yield stability of biofortified cassava still lag other advanced breeding pipelines. Continued investment in biofortified cassava is required to sustain the achievements of population improvement and new variety development to meet the needs of small-scale producers and consumers. Here, we want to highlight several key areas to focus on for accelerating the delivery of biofortified cassava.First, the genetic basis of the negative correlation between β-carotene and dry matter content must be clarified. If the locus for high β-carotene content and the locus for high dry matter content are linked but in the repulsion phase on Chr 1 (Gemenet et al., 2020;Rabbi et al., 2017Rabbi et al., , 2020)), efforts should be made to break the linkage and share the new coupling haplotype with breeding programs for variety development. Alternatively, if the negative correlation is caused by pleiotropy, breeding teams should search for diverse genetic backgrounds to minimize the pleiotropic effect of the β-carotene loci. With the advancement of whole genome sequencing, it is affordable to assemble any cassava genome (Hu et al., 2021). Cassava geneticists are well-empowered in uncovering the negative relationship and identifying the genes for β-carotene and dry matter content on Chr 1.Another critical aspect is the sprouting ability of biofortified cassava varieties, which is generally observed to be low but not widely reported. For example, during the 2021-2022 growth season, no biofortified cassava breeding trials were harvested due to poor germination/sprouting ability, and the selections were only made based on the sprouting ability (Figure 3a). To deliver biofortified cassava to small-scale producers, the variety must have good sprouting ability, which is the first impression the variety gives farmers (Kawano & Cock, 2005). As a clonally propagated crop, cassava was multiplied and planted by stems. Stem cuttings from the past growth season will be collected and planted for the next. However, due to the quick deterioration of cassava roots (Chávez et al., 2005;Zidenga et al., 2012), farmers paid all attention to selling the roots by transporting the roots to a factory or market as soon as possible. The stems could be left in the field for several days. The high temperature will cause dramatic Crop Science moisture reduction and significantly affect the sprouting ability. Even though the stems were collected correctly, the stem storage, while waiting for field preparation and proper soil moisture, will also impact the sprouting ability. Despite its importance, sprouting ability has been largely overlooked in cassava breeding. Specific evaluation of stem storage and sprouting ability at TPE is required to increase the selection pressure in biofortified cassava breeding. Furthermore, understanding the genetics and physiology of stem sprouting ability will contribute to increasing selection efficiency.Cooking quality is a critical factor determining consumer acceptance of biofortified cassava (Dufour et al., 2020). However, due to the limited protocols for quality trait evaluations, little selection pressure on cooking quality has been applied to biofortified cassava. The current biofortified cassava varieties do not have as good cooking quality as regular cassava varieties, which significantly affects their adoption. To address this, significant efforts in the RTBfoods project (https://rtbfoods.cirad.fr/) have dissected the cooking quality of cassava products, such as boiled cassava, gari, and fufu, leading to the development and implementation of protocols for quality trait evaluation (Dufour et al., 2020). For example, for boiled cassava, the medium-throughput method, water absorption during cooking, has been established and widely implemented in breeding programs (Tran et al., 2020). Combining the new protocols and introducing progenitors with good cooking quality will lead to new varieties that meet consumers' culinary preferences, as well as enhance their nutritional benefits.The reported genetic gains in the present study were achieved through conventional recurrent selection (Ceballos et al., 2016). Particularly, rapid cycling was implemented at the CIAT cassava program, focusing on increasing β-carotene content at the CIAT campus (Ceballos et al., 2013), where the root quality lab service is available and convenient. However, challenges emerged when we moved the population from the CIAT campus, a medium-altitude location, to the lowland tropics, the TPE. We observed poor sprouting ability, which had never been a problem in the medium-altitude location. To overcome this issue, we moved the biofortified cassava breeding population to the TPE, the subhumid and semiarid lowland tropics, and intensively selected for the sprouting ability at early evaluation stages. Moreover, the improvement is focused on all the traits required within the product profile of biofortified cassava, including agronomic, cooking quality, disease and insect resistance, and nutritional traits.While genomic selection has shown promise in cassava breeding (Ceballos et al., 2015;de Andrade et al., 2019;Okeke et al., 2017;Wolfe et al., 2017), its potential has not been fully realized in biofortified cassava due to reduced funding. Genomic selection has been tested and implemented in cassava breeding, which significantly increases genetic gains by dramatically reducing the duration of breeding cycles.Here, we call for further investment in biofortified cassava breeding to improve the traits required by small-scale producers and consumers. By combining a further understanding of the genetics of agronomic and quality traits (Rabbi et al., 2020;Zhang et al., 2018), modernizing breeding programs (Virk et al., 2021), and incorporating new breeding technologies such as genomic selection (Gholami et al., 2021;Santantonio et al., 2020), centralized data management using CassavaBase (Morales et al., 2022), and flower-inducing technology (Rodrmguez et al., 2023), we are confident in delivering superior, farmer-preferred biofortified cassava varieties within the next 5-10 years, making a substantial contribution to addressing the hidden hunger in the tropics. We would like to thank Dr. Hernan Ceballos, Dr. Clair Hershey, and Dr. Carlos Iglesias for leading the breeding activities and for valuable insights on various aspects of the manuscript. We also want to thank the reviewers for their constructive suggestions and corrections, and we acknowledge the active roles of the editor during the revision of our manuscript. This research was supported by HarvestPlus and Accelerated Breeding Initiative, CGIAR.The authors declare no conflicts of interest.Data, R scripts, and outputs are publicly accessible at GitHub: https://github.com/Cassava2050/2022_genetic_ gain_biofortified. Once the manuscript is accepted, all","tokenCount":"6498"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"496b2d0a8333d41c1bef57c3e8210097","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://repository.cimmyt.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/d8a8e90a-3cc8-4d67-a002-41be12c5ef93/content","id":"590107386"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"8cfe95d1-69de-440c-a38c-0449a8ed7a75","pagecount":"56","content":"La seriedad o magnitud del problema de los alimentos en el mundo no debería ser infravalorado. Los éxitos recientes al incrementar la producción de trigo, arroz y maiz en los países asiáticos ofrece la psoibilidad de comprar 20-30 años de tiempo\" N.E. Borlaug, 1969 -A Green Revolution Yields a Golden Harvest Profecía de Borlaug en 1969 SEGURIDAD ALIMENTARIA: RETOS. INCREMENTO DE LA POBLACIÓN SEGURIDAD ALIMENTARIA: RETOS. INCREMENTO DE LA POBLACIÓN ¿Hemos utilizado correctamente ese tiempo?  La gente en países emergentes están cambiando su dieta y haciéndola más rica en carnes.  A día de hoy, en la producción de bio-etanol se utiliza grano que podría alimentar 350 millones de personas.• India: 175 millones de personas se mantienen con grano producido en campos irrigados con agua de pozos del subsuelo.• China: 130 millones de personas se mantienen con grano producido en campos irrigados con agua de pozos del subsuelo.• ¿Qué harán India y China cuando el agua de los acuíferos se termine? La demanda del trigo para países en desarrollo se espera que aumente el 60% para 2050.  Los cambios de temperatura debidos al cambio climático se estima que reducirán la producción de trigo en los países en desarrollo entre el 20-30%. En las muestras estudiadas los niveles de ácido fítico tuvieron más influencia en la biodisponibilidad del hierro que el total de hierro.Mejor calidad de procesamiento y producto final Socioeconomía (orientada a género)But wheat is at the centre of concerns about diet and health • Amplio rango de síntomas: cansancio, dolor de cabeza, dolor muscular, depresión, ansiedad, anemia, etc.• Definición y el criterio para el diagnóstico no han sido establecidos• Incidencia reportada hasta el 6%, pero son cifras basadas en autodiagnóstico• Podría incluir enfermos celiacos no diagnosticados o enfermos del síndrome del intestino irritable.• ","tokenCount":"296"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"cf2bf39efaf5d5684385c38e90cc00d1","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/2a70fc55-0d62-46ae-977b-06f735621b5e/retrieve","id":"842517943"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"c478ab60-a5d5-4180-9a3e-39fa081e188d","pagecount":"77","content":"Medicago (Annual) * (E,F) 1991 Mung bean * (E) 1980 Oat * (E) 1985 Oca * (S) 2001 Oil palm (E) 1989 Panicum miliaceum and P. sumatrense (E) 1985 Papaya (E) 1988 Peach * (E) 1985 Pear * (E) 1983 ii Melon The International Plant Genetic Resources Institute (IPGRI) is an independent international scientific organization that seeks to advance the conservation and use of plant genetic diversity for the well-being of present and future generations. It is one of 16 Future Harvest Centres supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), an association of public and private members who support efforts to mobilize cutting-edge science to reduce hunger and poverty, improve human nutrition and health, and protect the environment. IPGRI has its headquarters in Maccarese, near Rome, Italy, with offices in more than 20 other countries worldwide. The Institute operates through three programmes: (1) the Plant Genetic Resources Programme, (2) the CGIAR Genetic Resources Support Programme and (3) the International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain (INIBAP). The international status of IPGRI is conferred under an Establishment Agreement which, by January 2003, had been signed by the Governments of Algeria,The most common name used for Cucumis melo L. is melon. Other names include sweet melon, round melon, muskmelon, casaba, cantaloupe and winter melon (Nayar and Singh, 1998;Robinson and Decker-Walters, 1997). Melon was first described by Linné 1753 in Species planetarum. It is a member of the family Cucurbitaceae represented by some 118 genera and 825 species (Jeffrey, 1990). The family includes pumpkins, squashes, gourds, watermelon, loofah and several weeds. Melon is divided into two subspecies, C. melo ssp. agrestis and C. melo ssp. melo, differentiated by the pubescence on the female hypanthium. Ssp. melo has spreading hairs, and ssp. agrestis appressed hairs (Kirkbride, 1993).Cucumis melo includes a wide range of cultivars. Although crosses outside the species are sterile, intraspecific crosses are generally fertile, resulting in a confusing range of variation (Purseglove, 1968).Early taxonomic work including melon was made by Naudin (1859) and Coignaux (1881). However, these attempts, along with many more recent ones (Chacravarty, 1946(Chacravarty, , 1959(Chacravarty, , 1961(Chacravarty, , 1966(Chacravarty, , 1968;;Berhaut, 1954Berhaut, , 1967Berhaut, , 1975;;Meeuse, 1962;Jeffrey, 1967;Chacravarty and Jeffrey, 1980 etc.) failed in separating the cultivated species from wild species in accordance with the International Code of Nomenclature for Plants (Brickell et al., 1980;Greuter et al., 1988) and International Code of Nomenclature for Cultivated Plants (Trehane et al., 1995). This has resulted in taxonomic confusion, hence, 522 synonyms of C. melo have been recognized by Kirkbride (1993). The taxonomy of the cultivars is complex and has only recently been reviewed and clarified by Pitrat et al. (2000). Kirkbride classified wild Cucumis in his monograph, 1993.The origin of melon has also been disputed, since there are arguments for melon originating from either south Asia or Africa. South Asia does indeed have a high diversity of melon varieties, but all other Cucumis species with a chromosome number of n=12, except C. hystrix, originate from Africa and have been referred to as \"the African group\" (Kroon et al., 1979). Of the 32 Cucumis species 31 have a chromosome number of n=12 (Kirkbride, 1993;Chen et al., 1999). C. sativus, cucumber, a relative to C. hystrix is the only exception with n=7, and originates from Asia. New reviews of the origin of melon strongly indicate south and eastern Africa as the origin of melon (Mallick and Masui 1985;Kerje and Grum, 2000).Melon has probably been cultivated in China since 2000 years BC (Keng, 1974) and many cultivars and high fruit diversity have evolved, as well as a worldwide spreading of the cultivated forms in the tropics and sub-tropics. It is mainly used as a fruit but immature fruits are used as a vegetable, seeds are edible and the roots can be used in medicine (Robinson and Decker Walters, 1997;Nayar and Sing, 1998). Wild inedible forms are mainly from Africa (Jeffry, 1980). China and USA have the highest production of melon.Melon is easily spread into the wild as feral from cultivation. Natural habitats are near cultivated areas, townships and riverbeds. Melon is also found in very dry areas. The geographical distribution of wild melon is: Africa: Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Cape Verde Islands, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Seychelles, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe; Asia: Myanmar, China, India, Iran, Japan, Korea, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Yemen, Malaysia, Indonesia, New Guinea, Philippines and Australia; Pacific: Fiji Islands, Guam, New Britain, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Tonga. (Kirkbride, 1993) Their fruits vary in size and shape but most varieties have round fruits, about 8-10 cm in diameter. The morphology of melon is remarkably stable for some characters of particular organs, but for others characteristics of the same organ the morphology of the same organ can be highly variable (Kirkbride, 1993). Purseglove (1968) described Cucumis melo as follows: \"A variable, trailing, softly hairy annual. Vines are monoecious or andro-monoecious. Root system large and superficial. Stems ridged or striate. Leaves orbicular or ovate to reniform, angled or shallowly 5-7 lobed, 8-5 cm in diameter, dentate, base cordate; petiole 4-10 cm long; tendrils simple. Flowers staminate and clustered, pistillate and solitary, or hermaphrodite, 1.2-3.0 cm in diameter, yellow, on short stout pedicles; calyx 5-lobed, 6-8 mm long; corolla deeply 5-partite, petals round, 2 cm long; stamens 3, free, connectives of anthers prolonged; pistil with 3-5 placentas and stigmas. Fruit very variable in size, shape and rind, globular or oblong, smooth or yellow-brown, or green, flesh yellow, pink or green, many seeded. Seeds whitish or buff, flat, smooth, 5-15 mm long. About 30 seeds per g.\"The descriptors of melon can be used for cultivated varieties as well as wild accessions. They are, however not suitable for other Cucumis species like cucumber, or other cultivated cucurbits (i.e. watermelon, pumpkin, squash or kalebass) although many characters are very similar. In some cases they can provide guidelines.x MelonIPGRI uses the following definitions in genetic resources documentation:Passport descriptors: These provide the basic information used for the general management of the accession (including registration at the genebank and other identification information) and describe parameters that should be observed when the accession is originally collected.Management descriptors: These provide the basis for the management of accessions in the genebank and assist with their multiplication and regeneration.Environment and site descriptors: These describe the environmental and site-specific parameters that are important when characterization and evaluation trials are held. They can be important for the interpretation of the results of those trials. Site descriptors for germplasm collecting are also included here.These enable an easy and quick discrimination between phenotypes. They are generally highly heritable, can be easily seen by the eye and are equally expressed in all environments. In addition, these may include a limited number of additional traits thought desirable by a consensus of users of the particular crop.The expression of many of the descriptors in this category will depend on the environment and, consequently, special experimental designs and techniques are needed to assess them. Their assessment may also require complex biochemical or molecular characterization methods. These types of descriptors include characters such as yield, agronomic performance, stress susceptibilities and biochemical and cytological traits. They are generally the most interesting traits in crop improvement.Highly discriminating descriptors are indicated as highlighted text.Characterization will normally be the responsibility of genebank curators, while evaluation will typically be carried out elsewhere (possibly by a multidisciplinary team of scientists). The evaluation data should be fed back to the genebank, which will maintain a data file.The following internationally accepted norms for the scoring, coding and recording of descriptor states should be followed:(a) the Système International d'Unités (SI) is used;(b) the units to be applied are given in square brackets following the descriptor name; is the expression of a character. The authors of this list have sometimes described only a selection of the states, e.g. 3, 5 and 7 for such descriptors. Where this has occurred, the full range of codes is available for use by extension of the codes given or by interpolation between them, e.g. in Section 10 (Biotic stress susceptibility), 1 = very low susceptibility and 9 = very high susceptibility;(f) when a descriptor is scored using a 1-9 scale, such as in (e), '0' would be scored when (i) the character is not expressed; (ii) a descriptor is inapplicable. In the following example, '0' will be recorded if an accession does not have a central leaf lobe: This number serves as a unique identifier for accessions within a genebank collection, and is assigned when a sample is entered into the genebank collection. Once assigned this number should never be reassigned to another accession in the collection. Even if an accession is lost, its assigned number should never be re-used. Letters should be used before the number to identify the genebank or national system (e.g. IDG indicates an accession that comes from the genebank at Bari, Italy; CGN indicates an accession from the genebank at Wageningen, The Netherlands; PI indicates an accession within the USA system) [MCPD] Provide the authority for the species names 1.8 Subtaxa (1.5.3) [MCPD] Subtaxa can be used to store any additional taxonomic identifier. The following abbreviations are allowed: \"subsp.\" (for subspecies); \"convar.\" (for convariety); \"var.\" (for variety); \"f.\" (for form)Subtaxa authority[MCPD] Provide the subtaxa authority at the most detailed taxonomic level[MCPD] Either a registered or other formal designation given to the accession. First letter uppercase. Multiple names separated with semicolon without spaceInclude here any previous identification other than the current name. Collecting number or newly assigned station names are frequently used as identifiers[MCPD] Name of the crop in colloquial language, preferably in English (i.e. 'malting barley', 'cauliflower', or 'white cabbage')(1.6) [MCPD] Information about pedigree or other description of ancestral information (i.e. parent variety in case of mutant or selection)(1.9) Approximate number or weight of seeds, tissue culture, etc. of an accession in the genebank 1.12 Type of material received 1 Seed 2 Plant (including seedlings) 3 Pollen 4 In vitro culture 99 Other (specify in descriptor 1.13 Remarks)Passport 5The Remarks field is used to add notes or to elaborate on descriptors with value \"99\" (=Other)(2.2) Name and address of the institute(s) and individual(s) collecting/sponsoring the collection of the sample(s)[MCPD] Code of the institute (s) collecting the sample. If holding institute has collected the material, the collecting institute code should be the same as the holding institute code. (See instructions under Institute Code, 1.1)Collecting number (2.1) [MCPD] Original number assigned by the collector(s) of the sample, normally composed of the name or initials of the collector(s) followed by a number. This item is essential for identifying duplicates held in different collectionsCollecting date of sample [YYYYMMDD] (2.3) [MCPD] Collecting date of the sample where YYYY is the year, MM is the month and DD is the day. Missing data (MM or DD) should be indicated by hyphens. Leading zeros are requiredCountry of origin (2.4) [MCPD] Code of the country in which the sample was originally collected. Use the three-letter abbreviations from the International Standard (ISO) Codes for the representation of names of countries. The ISO 3166-1: Code List can be obtained from IPGRI [[email protected]]Province / State (2.5) Name of the primary administrative subdivision of the country in which the sample was collected[MCPD] Code of the institute that has bred the material. If the holding institute has bred the material, the breeding institute code should be the same as the holding instituteLocation of collecting site (2.6) [MCPD] Location information below the country level that describes where the accession was collected. This might include the distance in kilometers and direction from the nearest town, village or map grid reference point (e.g. 7 km south of Curitiba in the state of Parana) 6 MelonLatitude of collecting site 1  (2.7) [MCPD] Degree (2 digits), minutes (2 digits) and seconds (2 digits) followed by N (North) or S (South) (e.g. 103020S). Every missing digit (minutes or seconds) should be indicated with a hyphen. Leading zeros are required (e.g. 10----S; 011530N; 4531--S) 2.10 Longitude of collecting site 1  (2.8) [MCPD] Degree (3 digits), minutes (2 digits) and seconds (2 digits) followed by E (East) or W (West) (e.g. 0762510W). Every missing digit (minutes or seconds) should be indicated with a hyphen. Leading zeros are required (e.g. 076 ----W)(2.9) 1 To convert longitude and latitude in degrees (º), minutes ('), seconds (''), and a hemisphere (North or South and East or West) to decimal degrees, the following formula should be used: dº m' s'' = h * (d + m / 60 + s / 3600) where h=1 for the Northern and Eastern hemispheres and h=-1 for the Southern and Western hemispheres, i.e. 30º30'0'' S = -30.5 and 30º15'55'' N = 30.265.Use descriptors 6.1.1 to 6.1.11 in section 6(2.11) [MCPD] The coding scheme proposed can be used at 3 different levels of detail: either by using the general codes such as 100, 200, 300, 400 or by using the more specific codes such as 110, 120 etc.100 (1.7) [MCPD] Date on which the accession entered the collection where YYYY is the year, MM is the month and DD is the day. Missing data (MM or DD) should be indicated with hyphens. Leading zeros are required(Passport 1.9)[MCPD] Code of the institute where a safety duplicate of the accession is maintained. Any additional information, including the information relating to method of isolation, selfing, sibbing etc. may be specified hereCountry of characterization and/or evaluation (3.1) (See instructions in descriptor 2.5 Country of origin)Site (research institute) (3.2)Name and address of farm or instituteEvaluator's name and address (3.3)(3.4)(3.5) Specify number of days from planting after which establishment is measured 5.12 Environmental characteristics of site Use descriptors 6.1.1 to 6.1.11 in section 6Specify types used, doses, frequency of each and method of applicationSpecify pesticides used, doses, frequency of each and method of applicationAny other site-specific information 6. Collecting and/or characterization/evaluation site environment descriptors Estimated slope of the siteThe direction that the slope faces. Describe the direction with symbols N, S, E, W (e.g. a slope that faces a southwestern direction has an aspect of SW)The landform refers to the shape of the land surface in the area in which the site is located (adapted from FAO 1990)  As detailed a classification as possible should be given. This may be taken from a soil survey map. State class (e.g. Alfisols, Spodosols, Vertisols etc.) Provide either the monthly or the annual mean (state number of recorded years)Provide either the monthly or the annual meanRemarks Provide here any additional information related to the site (i.e. if data collected refers to collecting or to characterization/evaluation sites)Environment and site 21 CHARACTERIZATIONFor all quantitative descriptors (metric traits), record the average of at least five measurements per individual accession, unless otherwise specified. If the characterization is combined with multiplication, at least 25 plants per accession should be planted (Jim McCreight, pers. comm.). Each accession has to be characterized separately. Most of the observations should be made at maximum vegetative growth state (at 50% flowering), unless otherwise specified. If fewer than ten accessions are being characterized, specify in descriptor 7.9 Notes. To simplify characterization a minimum number of measurements, preferably on different plants, are indicated as 'n', i.e. (n=5). If not indicated the minimum is five.For accessions exhibiting variability for a descriptor, each type should be recorded along with a frequency (% of total). For example: Accession A may have 50% globular fruit, 35% elongate fruit, and 15% scallop fruit. This same accession may also have 70% smooth, and 30% netted fruit. If several colours apply to one accession, record frequency of colours under descriptor 7.9 Notes.To make the colour recording simple, only the main colours are listed. If colour charts are used, specify in descriptor 7.9 NotesVegetative charactersRecorded when the cotyledons are fully opened and the terminal bud is around 5 mm in size. (n=10) 1 Light green 2 Green 3 Green-purple 4 Purple 99 Other (specify in descriptor 7.9 Notes)Recorded when the seedling primary leaves are fully opened and the terminal bud is around 5 mm in size. (n=10) 1 Light green 2 Green 3 Green-purple 4 Purple 99 Other (specify in descriptor 7.9 Notes)Measured at the time of expansion of cotyledon. 1 Compact (shortened internode length between 0.5 and 2.5 cm, bush habit) 2 Dwarf (internode length 4-6 cm, short in height, rarely exceeds 1 m) 3 Determinate (vining habit in which ends of branches terminate in cluster of flowers or leaves, such plants stop growing during growing season 4 Indeterminate (vining habit, in which branches continue to grow throughout growing season) 5 Multilateral (many branches) 99 Other (specify in descriptor 7.9 Notes) Characterization 23 7.1.12 Plant size 3 Small (<1 m 3 ) 5 Intermediate (1-3 m 3 ) 7 Large (>3 m 3 )Recorded on the main branch up to and including 1 st tendril 3 Few 5 Medium 7 ManyInternode length (6.1.7) Average internode length of the 10 -15 th node on the main vine 1 Very short (approx. 1 cm) 2 Short (approx. 5 cm) 3 Short -Intermediate (approx. 5 cm as a young plant -then intermediate) 4 Intermediate (approx. 10 cm) 5 Long (approx. 15 cm)Count the total number of nodes to the first fruit position on the main branchRecorded at 50% flowering. (n=10) 1 Yellow 2 Light green 3 Green 4 Dark-green 99 Other (specify in descriptor 7.9 Notes)Measured at the middle of the main vein at 50% flowering between 10 th and 11 th nodes. (n=20)   ","tokenCount":"2921"}

data/part_5/0338148982.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"0e8f61873e7625c15757f2d3c278617e","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/fb9643c8-526d-4603-be79-b1c0a2c027a9/retrieve","id":"220115014"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"6d1ba8a5-9cfe-4f13-98c1-00abb6096fdb","pagecount":"4","content":"In sub-Saharan Africa, most poultry production is traditional with birds being raised by smallholders in freerange semi-scavenging conditions. The aim of our project is to extensively characterise phenotypes of chickens raised in typical African farming conditions, by measuring production, immunity and survival characteristics. In total, 2,573 chickens were raised in five batches in the poultry facility at ILRI in Ethiopia. These chickens were phenotypically characterised and sampled across an eight-week period. Traits measured included weekly body weight, growth rate, breast muscle weight in carcass, mortality/survival, and immunological titres. The population of chickens had extensive variance at these phenotypes. For body weight, 65% of the total phenotypic variance was attributed to the individual birds providing an excellent source of variation for identifying potential selection markers. This data will subsequently be used along with whole genome sequencing data of these birds to identify selection targets to underpin future breeding programs.In recent years much progress has been made in identifying selection signatures in the genomes of poultry to improve poultry production. This has been primarily focussed on commercial species used in large farming enterprises in developed nations (Wolc et al. 2016), with huge gains made in growth rate and feed efficiency in the past few decades (Zuidhof et al. 2014). In Africa, 80% of poultry production is in the form of smallholder farms, where chickens are typically raised in free-ranging semi-scavenging conditions (Sonaiya 2008), but there is limited knowledge of the phenotypic characteristics and genetics of these chickens. Phenotypic characterisation and identification of genomic selection targets is necessary for the genetic improvement of chickens adapted to extensive semi-scavenging conditions.In this study we aimed to comprehensively characterise the phenotypes of typical African dual-purpose village chickens, raised in simulated semi-scavenging conditions in Ethiopia, focusing on meat production, immunity and survival.Bird trials, phenotyping and sampling. A total of 2,573 T4451 Sasso birds, a dual-purpose chicken, were raised in five batches of approximately 500 birds across the span of a year at the poultry facility of the International Livestock Research Institute in Ethiopia. The birds were raised in outdoor, semi-scavenging conditions (feed mainly from scavenging with some supplementation from day 56 of age, for approximately 8 weeks until they reached an average market weight of approximately 1,500 g (except batch 1 which was raised until 1000 g was achieved). Body weight was recorded weekly. At the beginning of the experiment, blood (from wing vein) and cloacal swabs were collected for genotyping and immune phenotyping, and the sex of the birds was recorded. Across the trial period the health of the birds was monitored, disease episodes (including coccidiosis) were recorded, and the day and cause of death were recorded, when applicable. At the last day of the experiment (day of slaughter), blood, cloacal and buccal samples were collected for additional immune phenotyping. Breast muscle was excised and weighed, and liver, heart, spleen and ileum samples were collected and stored in RNA-later and frozen at -80 °C for future transcriptomic studies.Immune phenotyping. Blood from 2,573 birds from day 56 and 2,097 birds from the day prior to slaughter, was allowed to coagulate overnight at room temperature prior to removal of serum. Serum samples were stored at -20 °C. The cloacal samples from the same birds were retrieved using floxed swabs that were subsequently placed in 500 μl of PBS and stored at -20 °C. Serum anti-NDV titres were analysed using commercial IDEXX NDV ELISA kits (serum dilution 1:100). Cloacal samples were analysed for total IgA levels using direct in house developed sandwich ELISA.Statistical analysis. A mixed model was used to assess the impact of the batch, age and sex on body weight and estimate the proportion of variance attributed to individual birds. A fixed effect model was used to examine the impact of the same effects on the other traits. Model analysis was conducted in ASReml-W 4.2.Data are summarised in Table 1. The data demonstrated that the chickens were phenotypically diverse with extensive variance in body weight, growth rate and breast muscle weight.The key quantitative traits measured all significantly differed by batch and age, likely due to variation in season across the batches (Table 2). In addition, sex differed significantly for weight-related traits, as expected, though had less impact on the NDV antibody and IgA titres. The proportion of phenotypic variance in body weight attributed to the individual bird was 65.3% (±0.8%).Across the five batches, 511 mortalities were recorded for a range of reasons including predation, huddling and disease (primarily coccidiosis infection) (Figure 1), which are common causes of mortality in smallholder African farms. The cause and rate of mortality varied by batch, particularly in terms of predation and diseases.NDV titres showed extensive variance across the samples, indicating a range in immune response to NDV vaccination (Figure 2). This varied both within and between batch, with titres falling across the test period in batches 1-4 but increasing in batch 5. IgA titres likewise showed strong variance across the dataset. Batch 5 also experienced a large outbreak of the parasitic disease coccidiosis, and NDV titres at the beginning of the experiment were found to be significantly associated with coccidiosis mortality (P<0.01).In this study we phenotypically characterised over 2,500 closely monitored chickens raised in simulated semi-scavenging smallholder village conditions in Ethiopia. This includes key production and health traits including body weight, growth rate, carcass breast weight, disease, mortality, and antibody titres. The analysis of these traits, and selection of chickens adapted to smallholder farm conditions in developing and tropical nations has not achieved the same progress as in the developed world.We observed extensive variation in the studied traits; we anticipate a proportion of this will reflect genetic variability which can be used for the identification of selection sites for use in breeding programs. Additionally, the substantial number of mortalities observed in this study due to predation and infection will be key for identifying genetic signatures important for survival. These will be critical for African farms as high mortality has been identified as the greatest constraint to poultry production (Sonaiya 2008).We now aim to genotypically sequence and characterise all of the chickens used in this study. Using the combined phenotypic and genomic data we will identify genes and genomic regions associated with these traits that can be subsequently used as selection targets in breeding programs. In addition, we have identified 48 birds which have the highest and lowest growth and immune trait records, which will be studied using RNA-Seq to further understand the molecular mechanisms underlying these traits. This study will be key for the optimisation of breeding programs and the improvement of poultry in typical smallholder farms in Africa.","tokenCount":"1098"}

data/part_5/0344675193.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"a3121c4d66ef91832e1da570d62bda73","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/d557a5d5-8d4f-4762-9453-538759985ecc/retrieve","id":"920832591"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"2b7c2cb0-7806-4920-a072-d2f3d0a554db","pagecount":"1","content":"o Dairying is an integral part of small--holder farming systems and important source of income for small and marginal farmers o Dairy produc6vity and per capita milk availability is very low in Bihar compared to country's average o High cost of commercial feed, low quality, poor knowledge and weak support hinders the produc6vity of dairy animal's o To improve the dairy animal's produc6vity, ILRI has formulated balanced concentrate feed based on locally available ingredient o Objec6ve of this study is to examine the impact of ILRI feed on dairy animal's produc6vity o The new balanced concentrate feed was introduced through a combina6on of par6cipatory trainings on nutri6on and feeding, demonstra6ons of feed prepara6on and farm--based dairy animal's feedingo The trials has done on 400 crossbred dairy cable kept among 400 farmers o Data has been collected for 3 days under control and 6 days for experimentMaterials and methods","tokenCount":"148"}

data/part_5/0388226738.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"d5dc2aa8e3f85ab91b2ba3e3d92199a0","source":"gardian_index","url":"http://www.livestockdialogue.org/fileadmin/templates/res_livestock/docs/2019_Sept_Kansas/2_Livelihoods_and_Economic_Growth_-_Online_consultation.pdf","id":"1472300991"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"85d34473-a351-454e-9caf-d3ae208d8388","pagecount":"23","content":"ü Recognize and support sustainable livestock's contribution to multiple development ambitions (and avoid unintended consequences) ü Harness diversity and growth for a sustainable livestock sector ü Support sustainable livestock enterprises through financing, business and trade innovations ü Invest and use the latest technologies at a faster pace 'innovation expedited' ü Undertake awareness and engagement actions to ensure livestock roles in livelihoods and economic growth are included in livestock-specific and wider development policies/agendasThis paper explores the opportunities for innovations in the livestock sector to contribute to sustainable livelihoods and economic growth. 'Livelihoods and economic growth' are broad areas covering the sector's multiple roles in poverty alleviation and contributions to national economic growth, notably for women and the younger generation. The paper considers the transformation of the sector as it adapts to meet the rapidly growing demand for milk, meat and eggs (especially in LMICs) and how there can be a sustainable transition for the billion or so people across the world whose livelihoods depend on livestock in one way or another.The livestock sector is highly heterogeneous within and across regions around the world. High degrees of heterogeneity are observed in the types of livestock, the production systems used, as well as in the structure of the various input-output value chains. For their part, production systems vary greatly because they need to be adapted to available resources, the cost of natural resources and resource constraints including markets.In capital-intensive systems (where natural resource costs are high), livestock are raised and kept at high stocking densities and fed high levels of concentrates to maximize production outputs. Poultry and swine are often produced under vertically integrated systems where a single large company controls all aspects all production stages, from breeding to production occasionally with the involvement of external growers for processing and retailing. Cattle and other ruminants are raised in a variety of extensive and labour-intensive systems across the world, often with lower resource costs. In labour-intensive systems there are, literally, hundreds of millions of small-and mediumscale production enterprises with varying degrees of management, inputs and market engagement. Much of the heterogeneity in these systems stems from variations in agro-climatic conditions, access to markets and services as well as socio-cultural norms, ranging from backyard chicken systems using minimal inputs to dairy systems that are well integrated into value chains.Fostering sustainable livelihood and economic growth opportunities for such a diverse sector requires a careful appreciation of the strategic objectives of all its varied actors at the production level, upstream (genetics, feed, health services suppliers, etc.), and downstream (aggregators, transporters, processors, distributors, retailers, etc.). It is also important to understand the public policy and institutional environments that confront the different actors across systems, regions and countries. Consumers, competitors and market conditions defined and framed by cultural and economic conditions all influence the sustainability of livestock sector contributions to the livelihood and economic growth of its stakeholders across the world. Understanding the production, distribution and marketing environment in which the sector operates in the different regions must precede the development of innovative solutions that can secure sustainable livelihoods for the various stakeholders in the different segments of the sector while continuing to contribute to their national or regional economies.Livelihoods; poverty and income growth Historically, increasing incomes have correlated with increasing demand for meat, eggs, dairy and other livestock products. Recent reports suggest that demand is projected to increase by 70% by 2050 (FAO, 2019a).Globally, it is estimated that over a billion people are involved in livestock -from input supply production, processing to sales, and marketing; and at least half of these totally depend on the sector, including some of the world's poorest peoples (Robinson et al., 2011). More specifically, the numbers of people engaged directly in livestock production tend to be smaller in capital-intensive than in labour-intensive or extensive systems. Capital-labour substitution is evident in the livestock sector globally. In many HICs, where labour wages tend to be higher than capital costs given their relative productivity in the livestock sector, production tends to be capital intensive, resulting in a lower proportion of people depending on the sector for their livelihoods. Contrarily, in most LMICs, a larger proportion of people tend to be dependent on the livestock sector for their livelihoods because the relative cost of capital makes labour-intensive systems competitive. For example, the UK, where just 0.5% of the population (19% of whom are women) are employed in the livestock production industry (Warwick University, 2010), contrasts sharply with Kenya where, at farm level, more than 800,000 people are directly employed in dairy production, representing about a third of the total agricultural labour force. Fifty thousand more people are involved in milk trading and processing, stressing the important role dairy production has in creating employment across many segments of society (Staal et al., 2008). It is noteworthy that these figures are now more than 10 years old and are likely to underestimate the weight of the sector in the Kenyan economy; the Kenya Dairy Board currently estimates about 3 million jobs in dairy alone (smallholder farmers plus other employment: http://www.kdb.go.ke/). Across the EU, around 4 million people are employed on livestock farms, with 30 million employed (about 12% of the adult workforce) across the entire livestock sector, largely in processing (The Animal Task Force, 2017a). In the US livestock sector production is estimated to support 0.4% of the US population (US Bureau of Labour Statistics, 2018).Typically, in HICs, the sector employs people and pays them wages, and they make their living from these wages. In many LMICs beyond those who have salaried jobs, livestock plays multiple roles in the socio-economic realities of households: store of wealth; source of income; insurance and safety net; symbol of social status; and numerous others depending on culture and situation. Especially in LMICs and labour-intensive systems, sales of milk, meat and eggs are an essential source of regular cash income (FAO, 2009) and livestock are an asset that allows households to manage risks and prevent total financial disaster when crops fail or other shocks hit (Moll, 2005;Wade, 2013). For several hundred million pastoralists in marginal areas (World Bank, 2014;FAO,2019b), livestock are their only asset and the only means of using the more than two-thirds of the world's agricultural land that is classified as permanent pastures to produce food. These systems have evolved over centuries to cope with spatial and temporal climate variability. Herds are intentionally managed to withstand drought (McPeak 2005;McPeak et al 2012) and animals sold to provide cash for school fees or to buy grains. From the drylands of Africa, to the extensive drylands of Asia, the north of Scandinavia, dry and mountainous areas of Europe and the Americas, animals in extensive systems are essential for livelihoods and for ecosystem stewardship.Regardless of where they are produced, livestock have strong cultural roles: as gifts and dowries in social networks and marriage; as dishes on special occasions, such as festivals and holidays; and in religious rituals and celebrations. In some communities, livestock are important for sporting events and entertainment, from rodeos in north America, to the Naadam in Mongolia.Furthermore, livestock provide numerous benefits, ranging from manure for fertilizer, and fuel for cooking and heating, and energy for ploughing and transportation of humans and goods, many of which support crop farming, thereby improving overall farm productivity. In the EU, manure accounted for 38% of the nitrogen input in 2014 (European Commission, 2018) and is likely to be more in countries where inorganic fertilizers are less available. In Kenya, non-monetary benefits (including store of wealth and prestige) amount to almost 20% of the animals' total value across different livestock systems (Ouma et al., 2003). In some cases, livestock play important roles in wealth creation and management, asset building or access to cash where classical banking is not yet fully functioning.Opportunities: Rising demand for animal-source foods means there will be new and growing income generating opportunities to be grasped especially in labour-intensive systems. Capital-intensive systems may also be part of addressing such demand, notably through trade arrangements. In extensive systems, new income streams such as payment for good stewardship of animals and the natural resources on which they depend (for example Pappagallo, 2018) along with risk mitigation strategies such as insurance (Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI); Jensen et al., 2017) can improve resilience if appropriate combinations of public and private partnerships and well-designed products can be achieved. Considerable interest in index-based livestock insurance products has led to a new regional initiative being explored by governments and investors in the Horn of Africa (See: http://livestockinsurance-igad-conference.org/index.php) .Especially in LMICs there are, therefore, real opportunities to utilize livestock as a means to escape poverty (Dorward et al., 2009;Kristjanson et al. 2004), and thus important roles for international and national financing institutions.Across the world, richer consumers are showing a preference for branded livestock products that are produced in more sustainable ways (with a lower environmental footprint) using less anti-microbials and enhanced animal welfare standards (Grandin, 2014). These issues are creating opportunities for small and large producers alike.Risks: With around one billion people across the world depending on livestock for their livelihoods, rapid changes in the sector to respond to rising demand is a potential threat, if deliberate actions and policies that support and enable effective participation by all actors are not considered. This applies especially to millions of small-scale producers and other livestock-related players who could fail to benefit from the emerging opportunities and may even lose their existing livelihoods as other larger-scale players come to dominate the sector. Progress in some parts of the world is likely to be further hampered by lack of investment in the sector, inadequate credit, finance and land tenure modalities. Investment in the sector could also be impacted by increasing anti-livestock sentiments which could also impact negatively on many individuals whose livelihoods relate to livestock.Currently, especially in the U.S. and Europe, there is considerable discourse about the desirability of reducing per capita consumption of livestock products. One manifestation of this is the emergence and rapidly increasing demand for plant proteins processed in ways to closely mimic meat and animal products. The recent very successful initial public offering of Beyond Meat, a company shifting from animal to plant-based protein, is just one example of this trend that is bound to accelerate investments in research supporting this line of products. Addressing sustainable livelihoods demands a consideration of innovations in products and processes that could adversely affect livestock producers and their supply chains; the most vulnerable are likely to be those in low income countries with smaller degrees of maneuverability. It is prudent, therefore, to explore the motivators of change in consumer protein preferences that are defining demand in high income countries and develop solutions to ameliorate the impact of any such shifts in low income countries, alongside the essential focus on sustainability domains.Growth rate estimates reported by the World Bank (World Bank, 2019) show that high-income countries' livestock production grew at 0.8% per annum between 1990 and 2014, compared to 2.9% for low income countries, 3.3% for lower middle-income countries and 3.6% for upper middleincome countries. However, average annual per capita meat consumption in high-income countries is over 60kg higher than low-income countries (OECD, 2019). Predictions indicate that demand for meat, milk and eggs will continue to rise in LMICs in the coming decades driven partly by population (especially in Africa) and partly by incomes rising (Asia, Latin America) (World Economic Forum, 2019). This makes it crucial to explore innovations that could enhance the sustainability of livelihoods of people making their living from livestock production and processing especially in LMICs where the growth in demand is greatest.Globally, the livestock sector contributes an average of 40% of agricultural GDP (Salmon, 2018). In LMICs there is a wide variation, from 15-80% and growing as rising demand for meat, milk and eggs is addressed. Extensive systems are especially important contributors to GDP in some of the poorer countries (Kratli et al., 2013) and across the EU the livestock sector contributes Euro 168 billion annually, 45% of the total agricultural activity (The Animal Task Force, 2017a). For many nations, data on livestock is not disaggregated from a wider 'agriculture' metric, making it difficult to assess the sector's contributions (Pica-Ciamarra et al., 2014a). This lack of data is further compounded when livestock's multiple roles beyond direct production are overlooked (eg Behnke, 2010;Pica-Ciamarra et al., 2014b). In the US, agriculture contributes about 5.7% to the country's GDP. Livestock accounts for about 50% of US agriculture and it is, thus, estimated that the livestock sector's contribution to the nation's GDP is about 2.8%. As economies transition and livestock systems evolve from labour-to capital-intensive, the share of agriculture as a proportion of total GDP tends to fall, but the proportion of livestock in agricultural GDP rises (Salmon, 2018).Opportunities: Taking advantage of the potential for the livestock sector to contribute to GDP requires deliberate, prioritized and targeted actions. Not all livestock enterprises or systems have the potential to grow and make significant national contributions in every situation. So, while investing in and supporting sustainable growth in the capital-intensive cattle industry in the US, the labour-intensive dairy sector in Kenya and India and extensive cashmere in Mongolia makes economic sense; others will be less economically profitable and environmentally sustainable. For example, in labour-intensive systems, cost-benefit ratios look very different once labour costs increase, for example, when family labour is replaced with paid employees -even though some of them are currently profitable (Lapar et al., 2012).Risks: Investing and supporting livestock sector growth to respond to demand without an appropriate policy environment could result in negative externalities, particularly those related to environment and health. Responding to growth also requires a commensurate increase in production efficiency (not just more animals) and that the disease constraints to production and sustainability are mitigated.In much of the world, livestock, especially small-stock, are almost the only assets women can own and benefit from (Kristjanson et al., 2014). In labour-intensive systems, some estimates indicate that two-thirds of the livestock are raised by women (Thornton et al., 2002) who are also often responsible for processing commodities, especially dairy (Njuki and Sanginga, 2013). In extensive systems, women also tend to have specific roles which often relate to their proximity to the homestead, such as looking after young or sick animals and processing and selling milk or manure (Kristjanson et al., 2014). Despite such key roles, targeted gender-specific information, technologies and support to improve all aspects of the livestock enterprise is generally lacking. In capitalintensive systems, female entrepreneurs are becoming increasingly prominent (see for example, Jamali, 2009;Vossenberg, 2013;Chozick, 2019). Across all systems and regions of the world, to varying degrees, women have particular roles in relation to household nutrition, particularly for young children both through choices related to the provision of nutritious animal-source foods and (mainly in extensive and labour-intensive systems) using proceeds from livestock sales to buy nutritious foods. This is a key intersection with the domain on food and nutrition security discussed below.For land-and labour-intensive systems women and youth face challenges in terms of access to resources, especially land and finance. Youth and women are both strongly affected by issues around migration (CGIAR Research Program on Livestock, 2019). Over 60% of Africa's more than 1.2 billion people are below the age of 35 and will need more than 315 million new jobs by 2035 (FAO, 2013). At the same time, there are growing concerns that across the world agriculture, including livestock, is becoming increasingly reliant on an aging population as the younger generation exit a sector often perceived to lack opportunities for an exciting and prosperous future. In many HICs young people are already disconnected from agriculture and there are specific initiatives such as FFA and 4-H which through education and practical training programs aim to reinvigorate engagement of young people in the sector.Opportunities: Animal agriculture has a unique role in women's empowerment. Livestock are assets many women in LMICs are already familiar with and providing opportunities to improve livestock productivity enables women to move up the 'livestock and livelihood ladder' (gradually adopting higher-value and more productive species or breeds) thereby increasing the productivity of the entire system (Galiè et al., 2015) and enhancing household nutrition (Price et al., 2017). There are opportunities for young people as the newest IT and other transformative technologies will play important roles in livestock sector transformation: increasing addressing productivity and efficiency, addressing environmental challenges or applications that provide innovative solutions for food safety and traceability. Business opportunities in input and service provision could be very lucrative for the livestock sector, already valued globally at over USD 1 trillion (FAOSTAT, 2019). In HICs, niche markets may present limited new opportunities for young people include engaging in landscape restoration grazing and urban shepherding, or 'ethical' dairying (Sustainable Food Trust, n.d.).Risks: Women's access to land, finance, information and markets is very uneven, particularly in extensive and labour-intensive systems. There are also instances where, as labour-intensive systems transition to be more capital-intensive systems, and livestock activities become more lucrative or formalized, women's roles and access to income benefits can become marginalized (Galiè et al., 2019). In some extensive and labour-intensive systems, child labour can be an issue that needs to be tackled (Isenberg et al., n.d.).Particularly in LMICs in Africa and Asia, labour-intensive, mixed small and medium scale croplivestock farms of less than 20 ha currently provide around 70% of both livestock and cereal commodities (Herrero et al., 2017). Livestock are integral to such production enterprises, which support the livelihoods of at least half a billion people (Robinson et al., 2011). For some enterprises, for example dairy in Kenya and India, such farms have proved to be competitive with capitalintensive production largely because of access to family labour (especially women) and strong synergies between crop and livestock production. Such labour dynamics are likely to change as economies develop and there are opportunities in other sectors. For other commodities, particularly monogastrics, economies of scale mean that larger production units sometimes evolve rapidly alongside or replacing smaller enterprises. In HICs, small and medium crop-livestock farms provide a smaller percentage of total livestock derived food, accounting for 30% in Europe and 10% or less in the Americas (World Economic Forum, 2019). Small scale, integrated farms are also increasingly promoted in HICs as environmentally friendly, addressing 'niche' markets (see below) and providing environmental services like landscape management and conservation of specialty breeds. The central questions to be addressed are what role and at what scale do such farms have in supplying livestock-derived foods in the future, and doing so in ways that are environmentally sound, economically sustainable, healthy for people and the planet. For those in LMICs, this demands transformation, especially in terms of production efficiencies and food safety issues, as well as efficient connections to input and output markets, while not losing some of their benefits, such as the balanced integration of crop and livestock production enterprises.Opportunities: Given the multiple roles of livestock in livelihoods and food provision, especially in LMICs, the transition from many millions of small and medium scale livestock production systems to future livestock agri-food systems presents multiple opportunities -both meeting demand and addressing development -to be grasped. In many instances, with the right policy and institutional context, many of today's smallholders could transition to out of the sector, using their present livestock enterprises as a stepping stone to make a positive sector exit (Dorward et al., 2009). For those that remain, transformation of production efficiencies, food safety, environmental footprint and market engagement will be among the ingredients for them to become medium and larger scale, more capital-intensive livestock agri-food systems in future. Incorporation of the newest science solutions and IT approaches will be important elements of such transformation.For LMICs, where rapidly rising livestock demand presents opportunities to be part of sector transformation, there are risks that today's smallholder farmers in extensive and labour-intensive systems could be excluded as larger scale enterprises step in to respond to the market. For many, their exit from livestock could end up as a tumble into disaster, and the multiple development benefits of small-scale integrated farming could get lost as fast growth and economic opportunities are grasped. In HICs, anti-livestock sentiments or trade barriers with areas of greatest demand could threaten future livelihoods.Note: Our examples of innovations are drawn from across the World, with some notable exceptions: Latin America, China, middle-east and parts of Asia are not represented, and while many issues will be common, examples from these regions could further enrich the scope of the cases presented.We provide here examples of innovations in extensive systems that respond to opportunities and mitigate risks by providing incentives for land and ecosystem management, new income streams from niche products or payment for ecosystem services and addressing the risk of asset losses.Innovations for land and ecosystem management In many traditional pastoralist areas, over recent years disputes over land use rights have escalated as smallholder crop farmers and large-scale commercial farming investors have increasingly encroached into rangeland areas that have for hundreds of years served as important seasonal grazing land for pastoralists. The rising tensions this causes often flares up into violence: in just one district of Tanzania 34 lives were lost in a two-year period and the insecurity also has serious negative impacts on productivity and food security. To address these problems government and non-governmental partners have come together to implement joint village land use planning, a participatory process that aims to secure shared resources such as grazing and water; crucially this is done across village boundaries. Clusters of villages in the district have been facilitated to develop village land use plans, a joint village land use plan, a joint village land use agreement and a joint livestock keepers' association. This has led to almost 150,000 hectares of land being covered by agreements that cover secure grazing rights and the fair use of other shared resources. It is anticipated that this will help ensure sustainable use of rangelands and reduce conflicts between pastoralists and farmers. The lessons from this Sustainable Rangeland Management Project 1 , have been shared with other African governments and the joint village land use plan approach has now been integrated into the Tanzania government's National Land Use Framework 2013-2033 (Kasyoka 2018(Kasyoka , 2019a).Among the innovations for ecosystem management are the conservancies particularly in the east African rangelands that provide opportunities for diversification by combining livestock raising, conservation and tourism (Bedelian and Ogutu, 2017). Making conservancies work is a delicate balance between the livestock enterprise and new income streams from tourism that may help reduce risk from single livestock enterprises, because conservancy payments provide reliable, yearround income. On the other hand, conservancies sometimes lead to reduced livestock access to extensive grazing resources while the conserved 'grass banks' retain good quality forage for the dry season. Income from conservancy payments may also at times be inequitable, for women or for land owners.Innovations for new income streams from niche products or payment for ecosystem services Over the past few decades, because of changing regulations and less reliance on draught power, traditional pastoral and nomadic camel keepers in Rajasthan, India have found it increasingly difficult to support themselves through camel herding. The state camel herd decreased from around one million in the mid-1990s to fewer than 200,000 today. Responding to the loss of camels and the important ecological and cultural roles they fulfilled, a local welfare organization for livestock keepers' organization, Lokhit Pashu-Palak Sansthan (LPPS) was established. In early 2019 a microdairy enterprise, focused exclusively on camel milk was opened. The milk is processed into a wide range of products, from frozen pasteurized milk to cream cheese, now being promoted to supermarkets and restaurants as healthy and nutritious foods. The camel keepers have quickly adapted to selling their milk to the extent that the potential supply of milk now exceeds the capacity of the micro-dairy, so plans are in place for expansion (Atlas Obscura, 2019).A growing proportion of more affluent consumers across the globe are becoming increasingly concerned about where their food comes from, how it is produced and the impact this has on communities, livestock and the environment: many are willing to pay a premium for food, especially animal-source foods, that are produced in ways that are demonstrably more economically, socially and environmentally sustainable and with higher animal welfare standards. This has created an opportunity for livestock producers to market their produce in a way that emphasizes its provenance, often with third-party certification. Marketing innovations based on geographical area of origin, breed or production system have emerged, such as Criollo goat meat produced under a protected designation of origin seal by 1,500 traditional transhumant goat herding 'crianceros' families in the Argentinean Andes (Raggi et al., 2010;Krishna et al., 2010).A similar innovation is taking off in South Africa, Meat Naturally combines ecological and economic empowerment, market engagement and benefits for environmental actions and the training to support these together with facilitating connections of all actors in the meat sector. Biocultural Community Protocols (BCPs) are a tool that is formally recognized by the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) http://www.community-protocols.org/. BCPs, which are legally binding on all countries that are signatories to the CBD, put on record the roles of pastoral and other communities in managing biological diversity and its related contributions to the entire ecosystem. This can include for example community animal breeds, traditional knowledge of the animals and a lifestyle that maintains the environment. BCPs therefore represent a new approach to supporting pastoralists' rights and at times challenge counter-productive perceptions and policies. BCPs have been developed by at least ten pastoralist communities across India, Pakistan and Kenya; others are under development in Iran, Latin America, and for the Fulani pastoralists in West Africa (Köhler-Rollefson, 2016;Köhler-Rollefson et al., 2012).Innovation to reduce the risk of asset loss One of the impacts of climate change already affecting the lives of pastoralists in arid and semi-arid areas is the increasing frequency with which drought occurs. Droughts are a major threat to pastoralists' flocks and herds and can lead to large-scale losses as animals die due to lack of grazing and water. Losing animals which are the only asset for many such communities almost guarantees a descent into poverty and may precipitate drought-related emergencies such as witnessed in the Horn of Africa (IFRC, 2011). Index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) offers an innovative solution to this problem. In return for a small annual premium, pastoralists can insure their animals against the risk of drought. IBLI uses satellite imagery to measure the impact of drought on rangeland vegetation: once a threshold is reached, pastoralists are automatically compensated with cash that they can use to buy food or feed, water and medicine to help keep their animals alive. Such insurance payments are triggered earlier than traditional aid-based responses. Initial short-term and causal studies have demonstrated that IBLI adoption increases productive livestock investments and household income, reduces distress animal sales, improves resilience and food security (Chantarat et al., 2017;Cissé and Barrett, 2018;Janzen and Carter, 2013;Jensen et al., 2017;Matsuda et al., 2019. So far around 18,000 pastoralists in Kenya have taken out IBLI policies, which are sold by local insurance companies and partially subsidized by the government but that is only a small fraction of the millions of Kenyans who depend on livestock for their livelihoods. Efforts, such as the use of trusted local radio stations, are therefore underway to increase awareness of the IBLI product and overcome hinderances to uptake (Thompson Reuters Foundation, 2019). With increasing climate change and variability, more exploration of insurance solutions is required, evidenced for example by recent engagement of ministers, public and private sector national and regional agencies to address this challenge in the Horn of Africa (see: http://livestockinsurance-igadconference.org/index.php).Our examples of innovations impacting on sustainable livelihoods and economic growth for labourintensive systems describe new IT applications attractive to youth, a tool that enables better assessment and targeting of solutions to empower women, an approach that enables prioritized investments to support sector transition and contribution to national economies and ways of engaging actors to promote sustainable transformation of livestock value chains.All around the world it is proving to be increasingly difficult to attract young people to follow farming and related activities as attractive career options. Farmers in both LMICs and HICs have an average age of about 60, even though the population of the former is predominantly under 24 years old (FAO, 2014). The sector is widely regarded by young people to be poorly paid and associated with physically hard, dirty and monotonous work. To make the sector more financially attractive and somehow compensate this negative impression, efforts are being made to promote farming as a rewarding, interesting and important career choice. One way of doing this is to tap into young people's passion for technology as an approach to making farming more efficient and profitable. An example of this in the livestock sector is the use of digital platforms to facilitate herd performance recording and farmer education in Kenya under the auspices of the African Dairy Genetic Gains (ADGG) project. This entails establishing National Dairy Performance Recording Centers (DPRCs) for herd and cow data collection, synthesis and genetic evaluation linked to timely farmer-feedback to enable dairy farmers to make the necessary adjustments to increase productivity and profitability. So far, more than 50,000 farmers in Ethiopia and Kenya are benefitting from over 6 million digital education messages via mobile phones and based on performance recording of their individual cows and herds. This is enabling them to make better informed decisions. Ultimately, the goal is to close the milk yield gap between what is currently being achieved by the majority of small-scale dairy farmers, what a small minority of farmers achieve and the yield potential of the animals (Okeyo et al., 2017). This work partners with a broader innovation in Kenya, iCow which provides information on production and connects farmers to key players in their agricultural ecosystem.Innovation that enables better assessment and targeting of solutions to empower women Empowerment of women in the livestock sector is fundamental to achieving gender equality as well as essential for increased productivity and enhanced household health and nutrition. Livestock can also contribute to empowering women. Many different strategies are being implemented to empower women with regard to livestock, but it is difficult to assess their relative impact or select the best options to scale up, without a suitable means to measure women's empowerment. The Womens Empowerment in Livestock (WELI; Galiè et al., 2019) is a newly developed tool to address this issue. WELI facilitates meaningful assessments of the effectiveness of project interventions to enhance empowerment of women as related to livestock. The WELI includes six dimensions of empowerment: decisions about agricultural production; decisions related to nutrition; access to and control over resources; control and use of income; access to and control of opportunities; and workload and control over own time. It also moves beyond the default approach of using the head of household as the gender proxy.Innovation to enable policy makers and private sector to prioritise investments and balance tradeoffs to increase sustainable livestock's contribution to national economies As stated above, the first difficulty faced by the livestock sector both globally and nationally is the recognition that the sector offers good opportunities to simultaneously contribute to economic growth and improve livelihoods. Once this hurdle is passed, national stakeholders face another challenge: how to prioritise investments in the livestock sector. One innovation applied in the last five years is the Livestock Master Plans (LMPs), that offers a roadmap on the type and level of investments needed to reach an agreed level of livestock impact indicators. Working with various stakeholders and actors, from both public and private sector spheres, the process starts by identifying the long-term objectives of the livestock sector, such as income growth, food and nutrition security, gender and social equity as was recently the case of the state of Bihar India (Shapiro et al., 2018). The 15-year plan sets out the investments that would be required to achieve these objectives, as well as a 5-year, more precise, investment plan. Using this approach, LMPs are now available for Ethiopia (Shapiro et al., 2015), Tanzania, Rwanda and the State of Bihar in India and processes are under way for several other countries in Africa and Asia. While it is too early to assess the outcomes of these plans, qualitative evidence from Ethiopia where the process was followed first indicate that it has positively influenced private sector (in the poultry industry) and public investment (World Bank). The LMP processes together with the Livestock Sector Investment Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) which is the primary analysis model together with associated models are being further developed and implemented by a consortium of partners including CIRAD, ILRI, FAO and the World Bank.Innovation to strengthen engagement of all value chain actors In many LMICs and for various products, the coordination among livestock actors has been weak, due to the long distances between producers and end users, along with the geographic dispersion of producers. Due to lack of, or poor, market pull, there are limited incentives for producers to invest more in livestock production, meaning they stay at a low input-low output level, even though livestock products are highly valued and in increasing demand. Due to the low level of productivity, providers of inputs and services (e.g. feed, animal health and breeding services) do not have markets for their products, exacerbating the low level of production and productivity. This inter-dependency among actors also means that solutions must be found through multi-stakeholder engagement and discussions (also called innovation platforms). Such engagement mechanisms have been operational for dairy in Tanzania and Kenya and the pig sector in Uganda. Research has shown that multi stakeholder platforms work best in a 'nested' system, whereby results of discussions at lower levels, e.g. at district level, are fed into national level discussions where policy changes and wider actions can be influenced (Cadilhon et al., 2016;Kilelu et al., 2017). While such platforms for dairy have shown improvements in household income because of better linkages to processors, there are still opportunities to improve the farm level productivity (Rao et al., 2016). In Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda a program led by Heifer International based on dairy hubs (East Africa Dairy Development), provided training and strengthening of business acumen. The initiative trained 179,000 farming families, established 37 milk collection hubs and formed 68 farmer business associations over its first five-year period. Although the model may not have been as successful as initially anticipated, the hubs are well established and farmers are using them to access inputs and sell their milk (Mutindi et al., 2015;Omondi et al., 2017).Innovations in capital-intensive systems include examples that respond to consumer concerns, identify new niche product opportunities and mitigate environmental hazards. We also highlight a recent EU initiative on sustainable livestock.Innovations responding to consumer concerns over welfare and AMR Many livestock enterprises are responding to changing consumer preferences such as welfare sensibilities. However, the rapid adoption of these responses suggests that any premiums associated with them will dissipate rapidly and in their stead penalties for non-compliance will emerge. Reducing the administration of sub-therapeutic antibiotics, hormones and/or steroids leads to lower growth rates which are being addressed through innovation in feed and the administration of natural feed additives. In the USA, for example, companies, such as Purina and ADM, are responding with products that support gut integrity and improve feed intake in swine and beef animals (Burgoon, n.d.;ADM Animal Nutrition, 2018). Similarly, Tyson Foods, Perdue Farms, Foster Farms and some of the major poultry producers have eliminated the use of sub-therapeutic antibiotics from their production at a time when poultry farmers in developing countries are discovering the benefits of these technologies. The major feed companies are exploring custom blends that focus on decreased dependency on medicated feed, improved digestibility and gut health. At the same time there is a shift from treatment of diseases when they occur, for example with antibiotics, to preventing disease through enhanced biosecurity and reliance on new generation vaccines. In high income countries (HICs), emerging opportunities include products produced without the use of sub-therapeutic antibiotics, hormones and steroids: major integrators are voluntarily adopting these policies and using them as a differentiator in the marketplace (Tyson Foods, 2017) and a means of securing premium prices. Early adopters of such innovations are more likely to benefit from these premiums because once these approaches become mainstreamed, the premiums will disappear (Carlson, 2016). In LMICs, many enterprises are already close to meeting such standards, largely because they cannot afford or access the inputs, but production levels, market organization, sanitary regulation (e.g. poultry in Ghana (Amanor-Boadu et al., 2016)) and other trade barriers hamper their participation in potentially lucrative opportunities, including export to high value markets.Innovations in niche products and markets Producers are also exploring niche production and marketing. For example, with increasing consumers preference for meat products with identity preservation and traceability, cattle and swine producers have adopted (by choice in some countries, legislation in others) ear tags and chip technology to provide consumers with the traceability they demand. However, as it is with every profitable niche activity, it goes mainstream. In the US organizations such as Walmart and IBM have partnered to bring the rapidly developing area of blockchain technologies to manage food safety (as an add-on to the Food Safety Modernization Act requirements) for Walmart's upstream suppliers provide these consumers with what they desire (Sander et al., 2018;Yiannas, 2018). Other companies are bound to join, and the increasing participation will bring down cost and make these technologies more mainstream. The early adopters of these technologies perceive them as providing them with first-movers' advantages.Uruguay is considered among the leaders in traceability for its meat sector, and as a result earns higher premiums than other major exporters and reaches over 100 markets. Sales in 2012 reached USD1.4 billion (IICA, 2019).Innovations to mitigate environmental hazards Innovations to transform manure management into an opportunity are becoming a reality. In the US a recent study of a feeder-to-finish almost 9,000 head swine operation with installed anaerobic digesters that generate biogas for generation of electricity through a microturbine showed economic promise (Adair et al., 2016). As the search for renewable energy becomes intense and the cost of installing microturbine power generators fall, concentrated animal feeding operations will not only have an opportunity to solve their manure problem but to simultaneously transform it into value that contributes to a reduction in greenhouse gases.A roadmap for a sustainable EU livestock sector An example of a comprehensive initiative for sustainable livestock in the EU resulted from the EU40, a network of young Members of the European Parliament bringing together livestock industry stakeholders to develop a roadmap for a sustainable EU livestock sector (The Animal Task Force, 2017b). The aim was to help the industry to become more environmentally sound, socially responsible and economically viable. The roadmap focuses on innovation, technology and sciencebased solutions. The overall goal is to enable the conditions towards a strong sustainable EU livestock sector, and to maximize its contribution to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.Sustainable improvements that benefit livelihoods and economic growth can have many co-benefits with other domains, as well as presenting trade-offs that the sector must be cognizant of and address. Here we highlight some of the key intersections in this regard, many of which relate to challenges that may arise if the sector growth is not accompanied by suitable enabling environments to manage emerging hazards and support the growing opportunities.Livelihood and economic dimensions of sustainability are closely intertwined with food and nutritional security, not least because of the relationship between income and decisions on food and nutrition that every household makes. The essential roles of women in livestock raising, commodity processing and trading along with their roles in household food choices mean that innovations to improve engagement and empowerment of women are can be supported to have co-benefits with overall health and nutrition outcomes. Similarly, income from jobs in the livestock sector or from selling livestock products can be used to buy nutritious foods. Alongside, it is essential to mitigate any reduction in the attention women can give to household nutrition because of increased production pressure (Njuki et al., 2015).Approaches that provide nutritional guidance for livestock-derived foods (Kimani, 2019), helping promote balanced diets that include milk, meat and eggs are important -but look very different, worldwide (WHO, 2018;Willett et al., 2019). Perhaps this is one of the areas where the contrasts and trade-offs across a global livestock sector are most often overlooked -from those for whom a reduction in consumption of animal-source foods would benefit their health and the planet, to those for whom an increase in consumption of animal-source foods would provide significant nutritional benefit as well as immense livelihood pay-offs. Importantly, in extensive and labour-intensive systems in LMICs, there are a range of issues to tackle to ensure that these nutrient-rich foods are accessible, available and affordable for all the population. Food-borne diseases, including those transmitted by animal-source foods, are a major worldwide human health issue (Jaffee et al., 2019). When the livestock sector grows in labour-intensive systems there is a potential for new risks to emerge, or existing ones to be exacerbated if appropriate risk management approaches are not in place. Women in farm households, who are often closely associated with processing animal products, may be more exposed to food borne diseases and at the same time have a key role in preventing such.With animal health and welfare In LMICs, responding to growth opportunities, if not well managed with good health, hygiene and husbandry guidelines, could result in increased risks from zoonoses. This may especially be the case for women who are often closely associated with raising and caring for animals, ensuring their welfare in all dimensions -which at the same time places increased labour demands on women. This of course, equally presents opportunities to support a transition that mitigates these challenges, including for example opportunities for women as service provider of animal health.There are new opportunities in the animal health sector for applications of the latest technologies, providing exciting opportunities for young people -use of blockchain for traceability or mobile apps to monitor, gather and advise on diseases for example. Such innovations may also come along with new challenges, including for example the legal frameworks that identify who along the 'chain' bears the liability.Animal welfare is paramount in all production systems as transition occurs to more sustainable enterprises that also meet demand. Excellent welfare is part of a triple or quadruple win because it reinforces investments in productivity and thus incomes. Deliberate actions are required to ensure that all systems transition animal welfare issues are not overlooked and are integral to every livestock production enterprise.Mainly in HICs, issues of animal welfare are raised to make the case for reducing livestock consumption and production. Welfare issues increasingly influence consumer choices and thus potentially aggregate demand for livestock-derived foods and the related livelihood opportunities. This issue is a good example of messages about very real issues that predominate in capital-intensive systems potentially impacting negatively on extensive and labour-intensive systems development and benefits, where the issue is very different. In HICs, there are livestock keepers and farmers who are specifically addressing this issue and developing more animal-friendly models, such as free-range farming enterprises. It is important to note that these developments are generally in response to market opportunities and will continue only to the point where the marginal benefit from their implementation is not lower than the marginal cost.Whether zoonoses or food-borne diseases, mitigating hazards will always need to be considered in relation to potential economic trade-offs which may look quite different at individual household level than they do at national levels and beyond. Information and incentives along with regulations will all need to be harmonized to ensure positive outcomes in all dimensions. Similarly, the topical issue of AMR presents potential synergies and trade-offs with income and livelihood aspects. These include for example, balanced rational use of anti-microbials lowering the cost of production and thus having a positive income result.With climate and natural resource use As described above, for extensive and labour-intensive systems, especially in LMICs, sustainable improvements to livelihoods and economic growth means grasping opportunities to respond to growing market demand for meat, milk and eggs. In doing so, there are potential trade-offs with the natural resource base that need to be managed. One of the key dimensions of participation in growing markets is improved production efficiency -meaning reduced GHG emission per unit of output -a reduction in emission intensity, which is often considered a 'double or triple win'addressing market opportunities, reducing GHG emissions and supporting better livelihoods. Whether this has an impact on total emissions will be influenced by other factors, including incentives for keeping fewer but more efficient and productive animals. Reducing animal numbers is often counter-intuitive from the perspective of millions who currently rely on livestock for multiple livelihood functions. This means that beyond incentives, appropriate social structures that address those functions must be in place. Here the livestock sector intersects with multiple others, from banking, to insurance, to health and education and so on.Capital-intensive systems are among the most efficient in terms of emission intensity, but because of the numbers and volume of production, as well as its concentration and separation from the land base, often record the highest total emissions and other environmental harms. The anti-livestock lobby is often fueled by such statistics; if it succeeds and leads to reduced investment in the livestock sector this will impact livelihoods worldwide. Its noteworthy too that within the livestock sector, we must be careful not to 'point the finger' between LMICs and HICs as to who is causing the most environmental harm. Across all systems there are real opportunities for improved resource use efficiency and better grassland and manure management that make not only for environmental sustainability, but ensure the sector continues to support millions of livelihoods.Across the world, all livestock systems are impacted by climate change, none more so than the extensive systems despite their incredible ability to cope with shocks. Approaches such as livestock insurance (described above) is one of several approaches that can help to mitigate the livelihood devastation that often results from climatic or other shocks. Extensive systems are also important for their roles in supporting ecosystem services such as biodiversity and carbon sequestration, and such aims need to be balanced with their livelihood and gender implications in particular. Schemes that support payments for ecosystem services (and at times related co-benefits) may be explored with regard to supporting both income streams and natural resource management.Access to and management of natural resources, particularly land is very varied and in many LMICs women and young people in particular are disadvantaged. In some cases, women cannot own land, in others they are the prime land managers -often through their livestock enterprises. Supporting women in good natural resource stewardship and decision-making for livestock management could have good environmental and livelihood pay-offs.Our discourse above has highlighted multiple opportunities across several dimensions of livelihoods and economic growth, illustrating the essential roles of livestock in relation to incomes, resilience, economic growth and equity. We have highlighted the diverse and unique roles that the sector can play that are integral to addressing multiple development ambitions. Such unparalleled, but often overlooked potential requires deliberate and targeted policy actions to ensure that livestock's present and future contributions to SDGs are not missed and there are no unintended consequences. Here, we frame policy issues in the context of key messages. With the exception of policies that impact directly on financial, business and trade operations, the majority of policy actions that can impact livelihoods and economic growth are not direct, 'command and control' topics such as legal instruments, sanctions or mandatory standards. Such 'hard laws' however, enacted in relation to other domains (such as food taxes, environmental regulations or public health sanctions) could have significant implications for livelihoods and economic growth, thus stressing need to be integrated into a bigger whole that takes account of all four domains of sustainable livestock (food and nutrition security, livelihoods and economic growth, animal health and welfare and climate and natural resource use) and their interdependencies. A policy environment that supports sustainable livelihoods and economic growth includes supporting the sorts of innovations described above (and many more) and their adaptation at scale to diverse livestock systems, commodities and locations. In many cases this also includes strengthening the capabilities of many actors to access and use innovations. It is one where policies take account of multiple trade-offs and synergies.Opportunities for livestock to contribute to livelihood and economic growth dimensions can be easily overlooked. Aspects such as food production, environmental impacts, health implications and so on may be easier to both measure and monitor. Here we highlight implications related to growth, resilience and equity that to a large extent frame the context for other policy dimensions.Growth: Grow livelihoods and economies New opportunities for stable income streams in the livestock sector as producers and other value chain actors can be supported through actions that engender inclusive, safe, sustainable value chains. They span technologies, business and infrastructure issues, many of which are highlighted below.New income streams such as payments for ecosystem services (PES), niche products and product differentiation all need to be recognized and supported for livestock farmers across the world. Among the best known examples is the silvopastoralism initiative in Colombia: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/07/08/trees-and-cows-offer-path-to-recoveryin-colombia Support and guide new trade opportunities for both commodities and services and be cognizant of trade-offs that may have significant livelihood implications.Resilience: Protect assets Protecting livestock assets includes supporting livestock vaccination campaigns (exemplified by the OIE PPR vaccine bank for Africa targeting six countries in west and central Africa through the Regional Sahel Pastoralism Support Project (PRAPS)) and insuring against risks across the sector. Insurance against risk in the livestock sector varies across production systems and reflects the different risk profiles encountered. Insurance based on risk such as drought or forage index (such as the Kenya Livestock Insurance Programme (Kasyoka, 2019b)), on insuring animals themselves (as in India https://general.futuregenerali.in/rural-insurance/cattle-and-livestock-insurance), government supported programs as in Brazil https://thebrazilbusiness.com/article/rural-insurancein-brazil and the USDA recommendations the cover mainly market and financial risks https://legacy.rma.usda.gov/livestock/. Both public and private sector have essential roles in providing insurance to strengthen the resilience profiles of the many whose livelihoods depend on livestock. Such roles are as varied as the insurance products themselves and may range from public sector support for mobile phone infrastructure that allows sales and payouts to function in remote areas, through to national regulations that ensure a fair market price. Private sector insurers may need to tailor their products for the clientele, such as the Takaful insurance product in east Africa which is Sharia-compliant.Other examples include providing incentives for resilience-building environmental stewardship (such as payments for ecosystem services, and their co-benefits) accompanied by support for wider infrastructure such as financial and mobile services which may be a prerequisite for such incentives to function effectively.Equity: Broaden the benefits Be deliberate about approaches that are cognizant of the need to invest in women and youth to enable their effective participation in and contributions to the livestock sector. These may span policies that ensure land (tenure and titles), financing (credit, insurance) and information access are equitable for men, women, young and old, large and small enterprises.To accomplish these multiple development dimensions, four areas for action are highlighted below.Prioritize, targeted, smart investment: For many systems where change, and thus opportunity are arising rapidly, being able to target both public and private investments in the sector to contribute to substantial economic returns, whilst minimizing any negative trade-offs will be important. Systematic prioritization of investments using tools such as Livestock Master Plans can facilitate such and ensure that the livestock sector fulfils its potential to contribute (or continue to) to national economies.Recognize the diversity of the livestock sector so that there are no 'blanket policies'; and be cognizant of long-and short-term synergies and trade-offs among the various dimensions, as considered above. Support a transition from livestock dependent livelihoods. Whether these are jobs in production, processing, trading (globally or in a traditional market); whether income comes directly from raising or selling animals or being paid to do so; whether animals are a source of cash or of multiple benefits, livelihoods will change. Smart policies need to support change in the livestock sector, without causing a loss of livelihood. All over the World, that includes helping people transition to other enterprises or sectors, it includes providing a range of services, market support and information that help small-scale subsistence farming to become economically viable, often medium and larger scale enterprises. Examples include supporting farmers' collective action, establishing agrovet shops, supporting private sector sales of inputs such as vaccines, providing necessary but straightforward registration for new fodder varieties, and standards to ensure safe feed supplies. Consider trade-offs and synergies. Policy makers will need to consider livelihood dimensions prior to investing in, or instituting legislation that supports or favours particular production systems or trade regulations. For example, in many LMICs, favouring industrial scale livestock production, or importation of livestock products could impact livelihoods of many millions. Instigating certain export requirements or taxes on feed or animal health products will impact small and large enterprises worldwide.In 2017, the World Bank's Enabling the Business of Agriculture https://eba.worldbank.org/ included for first time livestock related parameters, particularly those related to regulations around animal health products. Such studies, especially as they expand to address a wider range of issues can help inform national level finance and buisiness approaches to support a sustainable livestock sector. De-risk new investment. In many LMICs, investing in livestock or related services is perceived as risky from a business perspective. The issue of insurance is mentioned above, other input examples may be new fodder seed enterprises, sales of animal health products or IT based market information solutions. Small and medium scale enterprise start-ups are often fragile ventures especially at the beginning. Innovative financing that helps to de-risk the initial investment may help such enterprises to get off the ground and be part of transforming the livestock sector. Multilateral loans to governments may be successfully deployed in this context (eg https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/moving-towards-sustainability-the-livestocksector-and-the-world-bank).Tailor financing options. National policies that don't disadvantage women on land inheritance or requirements for accessing credit, goods and services may include finance products that do not necessitate collateral in the form of title deeds, or allowing repayments based on production cycles. Address wider infrastructure issues -power, water, roads, mobile networks that impact on the livestock sector and its roles in livelihoods. In addition to public investment, governments could attract private sector investment, through for example providing support that incentivizes mobile operators to reach areas that are scarcely populated.Investment in science and technology and ensuring such research is connected to the needs of actors across the sector needs to continue, and to develop new linkages that bring the most advanced technologies to bear on all systems across the world. At present, there is a huge disparity between where demand is growing fastest and where the most advanced livestock sector technologies are availed and deployed. Support for innovative research and technological solutions that can be applied not only in capital-intensive systems in LMICs but globally -covering new innovations in 'traditional' livestock science -feeds, health, genetics through to new applications of IT, traceability, etc. In some cases, smart application of the latest IT and other disruptive technologies could even lead to some of these labour-intensive systems 'leap-frogging' to become the new, sustainable livestock systems of the future.Policies that support sustainable intensification -moving towards more efficient, less environmentally harmful production with good health outcomes while supporting many livelihoods must be encouraged. In many instances, such policies will support large and small-scale private sector investment through incentives and risk-based solutions, financing and credit mechanisms as mentioned above. Connecting and adapting the latest science and technology solutions globally will underpin such solutions.Undertake awareness and engagement actions to ensure livestock roles in livelihoods and economic growth are included in livestock-specific and wider development policies/agendas For the essential roles of livestock in livelihoods and economic growth not to be jeopardized, dialogue, education and engagement within and outside of the sector needs to be strengthened.Local, national, regional and global policy environments that facilitate the engagement of all actors, including stakeholder platforms as described above and the Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock, can serve to enhance global engagement and messaging about the actions the sector is undertaking to support sustainable development.Re-connecting the livestock sector with consumers is important. Encouraging consumers to recognize and support niche products can be also be enhanced by labelling and education. The agenda may also consider the fast-developing world of alternative protein sources and how such initiatives may complement animal-based proteins across the world; this will require a lot of new analyses and engagement.Supporting fora for consumers, producers and input suppliers to engage helps find joint solutions to sector challenges. Such initiatives could include for example, better linking of nutritious food and balanced diets to 'well-produced' animal products and the role of milk, meat and eggs in balanced nutrition, especially using a food systems approach.Livestock in surprising places: at a global level, incorporating evidence about a sustainable livestock sector in discourses that focus on wider development will strengthen the recognition and thus investment in solutions including livestock.","tokenCount":"9538"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"e389f90291173b5c8abcd4779b718284","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/bc9fdc2d-4884-4d5e-8726-793647a76c46/retrieve","id":"-1829353546"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"8ba4f490-f258-47f4-92a0-37fa6b70cfb3","pagecount":"17","content":"El Comité Regional de Recursos Hidráulicos del Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (CRRH-SICA), es una organización creada en 1966, especializada en los campos de la meteorología, la climatología y la hidrología. Desde el año 2000 coordina la realización de los Foros del Clima de la Región Centroamericana, en los que participan expertos en meteorología y climatología provenientes de los Servicios Meteorológicos e Hidrológicos Nacionales (SMHNs). El Consejo Agropecuario Centroamericano (CAC) es una organización del Sistema de la Integración, tiene como miembros a los Ministerios de Agricultura de los países miembros del SICA.Centroamericano, Clima y Agricultura, a través del cual se comparte información sobre el comportamiento esperado del Clima para el trimestre agosto a octubre y los impactos esperados, así como las recomendaciones para el sector agrícola.El comportamiento esperado para el trimestre es producto del LXII Foro del Clima de América Central, realizado del 14 al 16 de julio de 2020, en el mismo participaron expertos de México, Belice, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panamá y República Dominicana. Utilizando la Perspectiva del Clima como insumo se desarrolló el XLI Foro de Aplicaciones de los Pronósticos Climáticos a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional, coordinado por PROGRESAN-SICA. Durante este Foro se desarrolló la mesa de Agricultura y Café en la cual se discutieron los impactos que las condiciones pronosticadas del clima para los próximos 3 meses podían producir y se generaron recomendaciones para el sector agrícola, particularmente ante el contexto de COVID19.Esperamos que la información recopilada en el Boletín Centroamericano, Clima y Agricultura, sea difundida ampliamente entre los técnicos, promotores agrícolas y productores de la región.Comportamiento de la lluvia durante agosto, septiembre, octubre de 2020• La Figura 1 muestra la anomalía de la lluvia acumulada, utilizando la herramienta CHIRPS*, para el trimestre mayo, junio y julio de 2020.• En el mapa se puede apreciar algunas zonas hacia el Pacífico Norte de Centroamérica con excesos, hacia la parte Este de El Salvador y el Sur Este de Honduras. Esta condición está asociada sobre todo con las lluvias asociadas a la Tormentas Amanda y Cristóbal.• Se observan zonas con acumulados menores a lo normal en la parte Central de Guatemala, hacia el Caribe de Costa Rica y Oeste de Panamá.Figura 1. Anomalía de lluvia acumulada durante mayo a julio de 2020.• Desde el año 2019 la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Atlántico Tropical Norte ha mostrado una tendencia al ascenso y durante el 2020 han registrado valores excepcionalmente altos, tal y como lo muestra la Figura 2.• Que esta condición en el Atlántico favorece la generación de más ciclones tropicales.• La temporada de ciclones tropicales será más activa que lo normal por el calentamiento en el Atlántico Norte, el Caribe y Golfo de México. Se pronostica que en el Atlántico se formarán 18 ciclones tropicales, de los cuales 9 serían huracanes y de estos 5 serían huracanes intensos y destructivos. En el Pacífico Nororiental se pronostica de 15 a 18 ciclones tropicales, de los cuales entre 8 y 10 se convertirían en huracanes. • Desde el mes de mayo 2020, los indicadores oceánicos del fenómeno ENOS, como Niño 3.4 y Niño 3, han venido mostrando magnitudes y tendencias propias de la transición de la condición Neutra a la de La Niña (Figura 2) impulsando a varios Centros Climáticos Mundiales (NCEP, BoM) y SMHNs de Mesoamérica a activar sus sistemas de alerta temprana a un nivel de \"Vigilancia de La Niña\".• Durante junio las temperaturas disminuyeron rápidamente durante algunas semanas, pero permanecimos sobre condiciones neutras (Figura 3).• De acuerdo a todos los modelos, existe una alta probabilidad (50%) que el fenómeno de La Niña se desarrolle en el período de esta perspectiva. El escenario Neutro y El Niño tienen las probabilidades de 47% y 3%, respectivamente. • La perspectiva climática para el trimestre agosto-septiembre-octubre (ASO) de 2020 fue producida por el grupo de expertos en meteorología y climatología que participó del LXII Foro del Clima de América Central. El foro estimó la probabilidad de que la lluvia acumulada en el período de agosto a octubre de 2020 esté en el rango Bajo de lo Normal (B), en el rango Normal (N) o en el rango Arriba de lo Normal (A), como se observa en la Figura 4.• Para interpretar la perspectiva se debe tener en cuenta que:Zonas indicadas en verde tienen mayor probabilidad que la lluvia acumulada ocurra en el escenario arriba de lo normal.Zonas indicadas en marrón tienen mayor probabilidad que la lluvia ocurra por debajo de lo normal.Zonas indicadas en amarillo tienen mayor probabilidad que la lluvia ocurra en el escenario normal. *La Perspectiva del Clima es una estimación sobre el posible comportamiento de la lluvia y la temperatura realizada con herramientas estadísticas, comparación con años análogos y análisis de los resultados de modelos globales y regionales sobre las temperaturas de la superficie del mar, los patrones de viento, presión atmosférica y la precipitación, que tienen como objetivo complementar las actividades de pronóstico que realizan los servicios meteorológicos en cada uno de los países de la región.**La perspectiva no contempla eventos extremos puntuales y de corta duración. El mapa presenta escenarios de probabilidad de la condición media en el trimestre; no se refiere a las condiciones en cada uno de los meses individualmente.• En las semanas de canícula en países con corredor seco se presentarían algunos déficits de precipitación sin esperar que ésta sea prolongada y que siga siendo interrumpida por lluvias.• A partir de la segunda quincena de agosto, se espera que las lluvias vayan en incremento para alcanzar su segundo máximo en el mes de septiembre y octubre.• De consolidarse el Fenómeno de La Niña podría ocasionar una situación crítica para Centroamérica por los elevados acumulados de lluvias que se tendrían.• En el Cuadro 1 se describen las condiciones predominantes por país 2 en relación con las categorías de los escenarios. El Cuadro 2 muestra el comportamiento esperado de la temperatura, cómo sería el inicio de las lluvias y la canícula por país.• Debido a lo amplio de la escala, en áreas con microclimas el comportamiento de la lluvia puede presentar variaciones respecto a lo descrito en la perspectiva, por tanto, las decisiones que se tomen basados en esta información, deben considerar estas singularidades.2 Para mayores detalles sobre las perspectivas climáticas por país, contactar a los institutos especializados del clima (Servicios Meteorológicos Nacionales) de cada país. ASO 2020ASO ) 1983ASO , 1988ASO , 1989ASO , 1995ASO , 1998ASO , 2008ASO , 2010 Cuadro Superior a lo normal Para el presente año no se prevé una canícula marcada, sólo una leve disminución de las lluvias en un periodo de 3 a 6 días a finales de julio.Respecto a granos básicos, se esperan condiciones favorables para el desarrollo de los cultivos, pero se proponen las siguientes recomendaciones ante las altas precipitaciones esperadas:Manejar la cobertura/protección de suelos para evitar o reducir erosión por escorrentía.Evitar la siembra de cultivos en zonas propensas a inundaciones o deslices.Ante las condiciones de alta humedad pronosticadas, vigilancia y control de pudriciones radiculares en frijol y el complejo de mancha de asfalto en maíz.Evitar encharcamientos por los excesos de lluvia y la saturación de los suelos, implementar acequias, cunetas entre otras obras que favorezcan el drenaje en las parcelas.Respecto al manejo postcosecha, incorporar medidas e infraestructura que beneficien el secado y calidad de granos.Incrementar la vigilancia epidemiológica fitosanitaria para el monitoreo de plagas por la alta humedad. Particularmente para plagas de lepidópteros mediante el uso de Bacillus thuringiensis, Metharhizium spp., parasitoides específicos y utilizando productos biorracionales.Desarrollar procesos adecuados de desinfección del suelo y tratamiento de las semillas.Evitar el exceso de fertilizantes nitrogenados.El viento puede provocar acame (doblez o inclinación del tallo) en maíz, frijol y otros granos básicos. Barreras vivas como se recomienda en zonas expuestas a vientos fuertes que se repiten cíclicamente.Las siguientes recomendaciones se basan en el análisis hecho por las instituciones nacionales de café (Anacafe, IHCAFE, ICAFE, entre otras) y Promecafe, junto con otras organizaciones del sector:Establecer acciones de vigilancia en fincas respecto a brotes de enfermedades relacionadas con hongos en condiciones de alta humedad (Mal de hilacha y Ojo de Gallo). El exceso de lluvias o granizo podrían ocasionar pérdidas en la formación de frutos del café. Evitar que la curva se dispare en el mes de octubre.Planificación adecuada de las épocas oportunas para la fertilización. Si se hace tardío, durante los meses de septiembre y octubre, existe la posibilidad de un lavado de nutrientes en el suelo (lavado de bases) por la alta incidencia de lluvias para estos meses.Continuar atentos al desarrollo y comportamiento de la plaga de langostas, coordinar acciones con los sistemas de sanidad agropecuaria en cada país.Realizar buenas prácticas sanitarias relacionadas con el manejo de tejidos y regulación de sombra.Se recomienda establecer un periodo de vigilancia durante este periodo, lluvias más fuertes en menos tiempo podrían ocasionar baja concentración de azucares y baja calidad del fruto Se debe de prestar atención a la incidencia de plagas y enfermedades como sigatoka o moco (banano). También estar atentos a la erradicación oportuna de hongos en el suelo, tipo fusarium, pythium, nemátodos y otros. Considerar opciones de manejo integrado de plagas.Importante prestar atención en las partes bajas donde acumulaciones de humedad podrían producir pudrición. Para ello se recomienda el mejoramiento o mantenimiento de los sistemas de drenaje en el suelo.Asociado al enfriamiento del Pacífico, en zonas bajas como en Boca costa y suroccidente de Guatemala la época lluviosa tiende a finalizar tardíamente en la primera semana de noviembre, lo cual es relevante para el sector cañero.La saturación en los suelos por las lluvias que se presentan en septiembre y octubre, generan deslaves, inundaciones, deslizamientos de tierra, daños en las redes viales de los países y lahares en la cadena volcánica.El manejo de cobertura es fundamental. El manejo del rastrojo y cultivos de cobertura no sólo es para conservar la humedad y evitar la evaporación, sino también para mantener un suelo sano, con nutrientes y otros elementos.En áreas bajas buscar aguas subterráneas para hacer pozos de infiltración para ayudar a manejar el agua y evitar la erosión hídrica.Aunque hay buenos acumulados de lluvia en ASO, es importante hacer prácticas de captura de agua. Es momento oportuno para establecer reservorios de agua que permitan su almacenamiento y hacer frente a cualquier variación o cualquier distribución errática de lluvia.Se recomienda emplear prácticas tales como labranza vertical, uso de cobertura, curvas de nivel, terrazas de muro vivo, barreras de piedra acomodada, barreras vivas, abonos verdes, adición de materia orgánica, entre otras, para mantener la humedad en el suelo y obtener más producción, especialmente en agricultura de subsistencia.La Agricultura Sostenible Adaptada al Clima (ASAC), contempla la implementación de mejores prácticas a nivel de plantación, finca y paisaje, como pilares para fomentar la sostenibilidad de los sistemas agropecuarios. Algunas de estas prácticas sostenibles, las cuales están entrelazadas y se detallan a continuación:El sistema suelo es un ente vivo y dinámico, por lo que conservar y mejorar sus condiciones es clave para garantizar su calidad y productividad en el largo plazo. Para ello, se debe considerar una serie de prácticas complementarias, tales como:1. Incorporación de materia orgánica, ya sea por medio de la elaboración de abonos orgánicos líquidos y/o sólidos, por medio del paleteo de excretas en los repastos, o por medio del uso de abonos verdes, cultivos de cobertura, y/o mantillo o residuos de cosecha.Según datos del Banco Mundial 3 (2020), la agricultura consume alrededor del 70% del suministro de agua dulce del planeta. Al ser un recurso escaso e indispensable para la vida, resulta fundamental que se incorporen prácticas sostenibles que garanticen su conservación y manejo sostenible, como, por ejemplo:1. En regiones adonde las condiciones de siembra son secas o áridas (e.g. Corredor Seco): implementar técnicas de cosecha y almacenamiento de agua de lluvia, en conjunto con las prácticas de manejo de suelo que conserven la humedad, tales como las mencionadas anteriormente.3 Fuente: https://www.bancomundial.org/es/topic/water-inagriculture 2. En regiones en las que existan sistemas de riego: optimizar y hacer más eficiente el riego, reemplazando el riego por gravedad, que es el riego en el que más agua se desperdicia, por riego conducido, utilizando mangueras o tuberías, y revisando periódicamente posibles fugas desde la fuente y a lo largo del recorrido.También se puede programar el riego para realizarlo durante las horas más frescas, considerando su disponibilidad temporal y con base en información periódica sobre las condiciones del tiempo y/o utilizando los servicios climáticos.Según datos de FAO 4 (2018), la ganadería cumple un papel clave frente al cambio climático y la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional, destacando que:• Los productos ganaderos son responsables de más emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero que la mayoría de las otras fuentes de alimentos. Las emisiones son causadas por la producción de alimento, la fermentación entérica, los desechos de animales y el cambio en el uso de la tierra.• La ganadería es clave para la seguridad alimentaria: La carne, la leche y los huevos proporcionan el 34% de la proteína que se consume en todo el mundo e igualmente micronutrientes esenciales como la vitamina B12, vitamina A, hierro, zinc, calcio y riboflavina. Cientos de millones de personas vulnerables confían en la ganadería en un clima cambiante, debido a la capacidad de los animales para adaptarse a las condiciones marginales y resistir las crisis.Debido a esto, es fundamental considerar la implementación de prácticas sostenibles tales como:1. Implementar técnicas de conservación de forrajes.2. En el caso de la producción de leche bajo sistema de pastoreo: distribuir el pastoreo en diferentes zonas de repastos, considerando una rotación adecuada para optimizar el consumo de forraje y evitar la compactación y degradación del suelo y los pastos.3. Combinar áreas de repasto con árboles, por ejemplo, mediante el uso de diferentes especies forrajeras como cercas vivas, de manera que se ofrezca sombra al ganado durante días con altas temperaturas (reduciendo el estrés calórico), se cuente con diferentes fuentes de proteína, aprovechable por medio del ramoneo de hojas y tallos tiernos, y se fije nitrógeno naturalmente, aumentando fertilidad de los pastos.Como consecuencia de un período de verano seco y caluroso y su cambio a un invierno con exceso de precipitación, es de esperarse el incremento de hongos y bacterias, así como de algunas especies de insectos cuya bioecología está asociada a este tipo de eventos. En este caso el principal riesgo lo constituye el incremento de poblaciones de Langosta Voladora Shistocerca piceifrons, por lo que es fundamental el refuerzo de las actividades de vigilancia.• Incrementar la vigilancia epidemiológica fitosanitarias para el monitoreo de plagas utilizando trampas de color amarillas, verdes y azules pegajosos, así también, el uso de feromonas para la detección oportuna de plagas en cultivos de solanáceas, brássicas, cucurbitáceas.• Ampliar la aplicación de medidas de control biológico para plagas de lepidópteros tanto en granos básicos, como en hortalizas mediante el uso de Bacillus thuringiensis, Metharhizium spp., parasitoides específicos y utilizando productos biorracionales.• Realizar prospecciones de langosta voladora en zonas gregaigenas y chapulines en la región., se espera también el incremento de las poblaciones de lepidópteros propios de la época, poblaciones de larvas de insectos de los géneros Spodoptera, Agriotes, Pseudoplusia son de importancia.• En el caso de las pudriciones se debe poner principal atención a las causadas por los géneros de bacteria Ralstonia, Xanthomona y Erwinia y los hongos Fusarium, Phytophtora y Alternaria.• Tener en consideración para el desarrollo de cualquier medida fitosanitaria las condiciones del tiempo y su pronóstico, así como las implicaciones de los mismos en términos del riesgo de plaga. El geoportal de OIRSA se encuentra a disponibilidad para servir de guía y utilidad: https://geoportal.oirsa.orgLos principales riesgos están asociados a la saturación de los suelos producto del incremento de las precipitaciones. Esto afecta fundamentalmente la disponibilidad de forrajes e incrementa la proliferación de parásitos y vectores de enfermedades. Entre las medidas recomendadas por OIRSA que se deben aplicar en esta época del año se recomienda:• Asegurar fuentes de alimento ante la eventual escases causada por las inundaciones.• Asegurar y resguardar fuentes de agua de buena calidad.• Observar y aplicar las medidas de bioseguridad básicas en su finca, granja o establecimiento.• Efectuar baños contra los parásitos externos como moscas y garrapatas• Aplicar la desparasitación para endo y ectoparásitos en bovinos, equinos y porcinos.• Aplicar vitaminas aprovechando la actividad de desparasitación de los animales• Movilizar a los animales a partes altas o secas de los terrenos susceptibles a inundaciones o encharcamientos.• Vigilar la presencia de síntomas o signos de las enfermedades de mayor riesgoLa pandemia de coronavirus está generando impactos en la producción de alimentos, el acceso al mercado y el empleo rural. Algunos de estos que ya se están presentando principalmente en la región se enuncian a continuación:• Reducción de los ingresos de las familias vulnerables: algunos hogares han reducido sus ahorros debido al aumento de los precios de los alimentos y los insumos.• Acceso limitado a insumos para la producción de alimentos: Además de las limitaciones para conseguir dichos insumos se presenta un alza en los precios de los mismos, afectando a muchos productores su compra.• Restricciones comerciales: las limitaciones en la movilidad además afectan el desarrollo de actividades alternativas como fuentes de ingreso familiar, propiciando los disturbios y la inestabilidad social.• El Impacto adicional de los fenómenos climáticos como sequias y temporales de lluvia: Acorde a los pronósticos climáticos estimados, es necesario prepararse ante la llegada del fenómeno de la Niña y su condición lluviosa para toda la región, impactando en la mayoría de los rubros productivos.Ante la situación actual del COVID-19, y como una herramienta de apoyo territorial, Las Mesas Técnicas Agroclimáticas (MTA) impulsadas por el Programa de Investigación de CGIAR en Cambio Climático, la Agricultura y la Seguridad Alimentaria (CCAFS) y sus socios, han sido cruciales para mitigar los efectos negativos de la pandemia.Las MTA han abordado cuestiones como los efectos de la pandemia en la agricultura y la seguridad alimentaria de la región y lo que sucederá con los millones de habitantes de las zonas rurales que dependen de la agricultura, así como las medidas que pueden adoptarse para reducir los efectos 6 . Entre estas medidas se encuentran:• Canales de comunicación adecuados: Las herramientas digitales han demostrado ser una forma eficaz de difundir información agroclimática y recomendaciones para el sector agrícola durante la pandemia.• Incentivar prácticas agrícolas locales: para hacer frente a la falta de acceso a fertilizantes y otros insumos tradicionales, es importante seguir implementando prácticas como el uso de 6 Para más Información consulte https://ccafs.cgiar.org/es/research-highlight/informaci%C3%B3n-agroclim%C3%A1tica-ayuda-luchar-contra-la-covid-19-en-am%C3%A9rica-latina insumos biológicos, prácticas agroecológicas de bajo costo y la utilización de recursos locales para satisfacer las necesidades de nutrición de los cultivos • Garantizar insumos: fomentar los programas sociales para proporcionar semillas y otros insumos agrícolas prioritarios.• Diversificar e incentivar la producción: Enfatizar en la importancia de la producción de cereales para evitar la escasez como maíz, sorgo, frijoles, hortalizas.A través de estos espacios de dialogo, se permite apoyar las decisiones del sector agrícola, gracias a la identificación de los impactos y a las recomendaciones generadas, los agricultores pueden tomar decisiones informadas para mantener la productividad de sus cultivos, combatir el cambio climático, pero especialmente en estos momentos seguir proveyendo de alimentos a la población em medio de la crisis sanitaria efecto del COVID-19.Las Mesas Técnicas Agroalimentarias están desempeñando un papel fundamental en el diagnóstico de los impactos y la generación de recomendaciones. Ante las perspectivas climáticas consideradas para estos próximos meses, entre las recomendaciones generales se indican:• Servicios climáticos: Es importante que con la información de clima unido a la información agrícola se generen servicios climáticos para el sector en el país, por ejemplo a través de las mesas agroclimáticas locales, mesas de monitoreo de cultivos, mesas de seguridad alimentaria y otros espacios.• Monitorear periódicamente: I.Actualizaciones del pronóstico: emitidas mensualmente los servicios meteorológicos, incluyendo: pronóstico de corto plazo (24, 48, 72 horas), pronósticos semanales, pronósticos mensuales y las tablas de contingencia de las estaciones meteorológicas. Mucha de esta información está disponible en las páginas web de los servicios meteorológicos de cada país.Resultados de los informes de precios de granos básicos y otros productos de la canasta familiar, emitidos típicamente por la FAO y los ministerios de agricultura de los países.III. Resultados de informes de inseguridad alimentaria emitidos por las organizaciones nacionales de seguridad alimentaria y algunas agencias de las Naciones Unidas (e.g. PMA).Los mensajes de alerta emitidos por los organismos de gestión de riesgos. ","tokenCount":"3380"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"b98517e9935f4adcf45a268a05eb02a8","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://publications.iwmi.org/pdf/H_9247i.pdf","id":"1516752966"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"980bf039-f167-4a38-9bc1-d0269f82de2a","pagecount":"132","content":"Bandaragoda and Rehman (1995). Warabandi in Pakistan's Canal Irrigation Systems -Widening Gap between Theory and Practice. IlMl Country Paper-Pakistan No.7\"The Farmer-Managed Irrigated Agriculture under the Lefl Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) Stage-I Project Area\" is a pilot project on testing the social and economic viability of distributary level water users organizations. For the purpose of comparing \"before project\" and \"afler project\" situations in a subsequent impact evaluation, it was necessary to have some organized baseline information of the Pilot Project area.The socio-economic baseline survey for the three selected sites of distributary commands of the Pilot Project was conducted during February-April 1996. Data entry and data analysis work of the survey consumed several months, as for the cleaning of data, the field teams and the supervisors had to go back to some of the respondents.A summary of findings of this survey was reported in the August 1996 Monthly Progress Report and the January 1997 Phase4 Report of the Pilot Project . This information was used in planning and implementing the social organization action research for establishing water users organizations in the three pilot areas.The publishing of this report in a comprehensive form at this stage is to add to the Pilot Project's documentation process, so that a more complete picture of the baseline situation is available for future evaluation purposes. A network of surface drains discharging to the sea via a spinal drain and tidal link;Deep tubewells to intercept seepage water and control the groundwater table by pumping groundwater into the surface drainage network; Special wells to scavenge fresh water lenses for use in irrigation;Buried interceptor drains beside canals to recover fresh water seepage for use in irrigation;Buried tile drains to control groundwater tables where drainage tubewells are not feasible;Additional power capacity at seven existing grid stations;A network of power supplies to tubewells and drainage pumping stations;Remodelling canals to increase capacity and stability; Construction of Chotiari Reservoir to provide system storage allowing secure supplies to the Lower Nara Canal system;On-farm Water Management to improve watercourses and water use practices;The provision of plant, equipment and workshop for maintenance of the drainage system;The establishment of sustainable operation and maintenance arrangements; and Studies of the impact of the project on groundwater levels, agricultural performance, social development and distribution of benefits.In July 1995, the International Irrigation Management Institute (IIMI) started an action research program in collaboration with the Department of Agricultural Engineering and Water Management of the Government of Sindh to launch three pilot projects on water users organizations in the LBOD project area.The broad purpose of these pilot projects is two-fold: (1) to test the viability of farmers' managing parts of the irrigation system so that more efficient and equitable allocation of water can be achieved: and (2) to make recommendations on future extensions from the results of the pilot projects.More specifically, these pilot projects aim to help organize farmers into Water Users Organizations (WUOs) in three selected distributarylminor canal command areas, one in each of the three LBOD districts: Mirpurkhas, Nawabshah, and Sanghar. Another specific objective is to promote the maximum involvement of the water users and the WUOs in the operation and maintenance of distributary/minor canals, with adequate institutional support from the relevant governmental agencies. Also, the legislative requirements and institutional processes would be identified for effectively organizing and strengthening Water Users Organizations (WUOs) on a wider scale.The broad concept underlying these pilot projects is that the WUOs would eventually be accountable for the water received at the head of distributarylminor canals, responsible for distribution of water among the member Water Users Associations (WUAs) at the watercourse level according to their own agreed upon allocation rules, and also responsible for managing groundwater levels in their respective command areas. The WUOs would reach an agreement with their members, as well as with the agencies, for appropriate water charges and operation and maintenance (08M) costs of irrigation and drainage facilities in their distributarylminor command areas. They will undertake the collection of waterldrainage charges, improve water management practices, and undertake other activities related to water, including the maintenance practices for irrigation and drainage facilities.Selection Criteria for Pilot DistributariesDuring the month of November 1995, three distributaries in the project area were selected. A map of the project area is presented in Figure 1.2. The following criteria had been adopted in short-listing the distributarieslminors:-  For data collection purposes. the Khadwari Minor is treated as a separate siteReduced distance is the distance in measures of 1000 feet of any point on the center line of a canal from the head of the canal (RD 24 = 24,000 ft from the head of the canal).Small distributaries in the Province of Sindh are often designated as a minor, bul strictly speaking, they are more appropriately defined as a distributary. whereas a minor offtakes from a distributary Besides the irrigation canal systems, the project also places emphasis on the surface drainage component of the pilot areas. Therefore, information on the available drainage facilities was also gathered for pilot distributary command areas.The project has conceptualized the idea to mobilize the water users of the project area to take care of the drainage facilities available in the command area. Therefore, it was necessary to gather the information on the drainage facilities available in the area.   This section covers the design methodology used for the baseline survey, including the selection of watercourses, respondents for the survey, preparation of questionnaire and its pre-testing, training of field staff, problems faced in the field, data entry and analysis.Baseline or benchmark surveys are carried out to serve two broad purposes. First, these surveys can provide some first hand general field information on physical, social and institutional conditions in the pilot area that can be used in designing the (action research) programs. Secondly, these surveys can also provide some benchmark information for developing and monitoring some testable performance and evaluation indicators that can be used for monitoring during the project gestation periods, or for post-project evaluations.The current socio-economic baseline survey was, therefore, designed as a starting point for the action research program on farmer-managed irrigated agriculture under the LBOD Stage 1 Project in Pakistan. The results of the survey can help during the action research program because of a better understanding of the project area, its problems and constraints, and possible solutions thereof.For collection of the information, two methods are used in general; namely, census and sample surveys. Given the advantages and disadvantages associated with each of these methods, sample surveys have been found fairly efficient and cost-effective for such purposes. It was thus decided that the baseline information for the current project would be collected through a sample survey.Designing sample surveys is quite a technical and sophisticated job and a lot of background information is required to work out the scientific sample design. The professionals generally use measures of dispersion, such as variance, to arrive at scientifically appropriate and well-specified sample sizes.Since there was no known variance of any attribute related to the pilot sites, no statistical technique could be employed to determine statistically appropriate sample sizes. The concept of a purposive sample is not unknown under such circumstances. Therefore, the decision was taken to design a purposive sample that should consider all necessary aspects of the pilot area.Each of the three pilot distributaries irrigates farmers' fields in its command area through a number of tertiary irrigation channels, that are popularly called watercourses. There are a number of farms being irrigated by each of these watercourses. A sampling was required for first selecting the sample watercourses from each of the pilot distributaries and then selecting a number of water users from within each of the selected watercourses.Khadwari Minor (Sanghar)The secondary level irrigation systems (distributaries and minors) are usually divided into head, middle and tail reaches because of the variations in hydraulic behavior of these reaches. Thus, consideration had to be given to these physical aspects as well. It was decided to have an equal number of watercourses from each of these strata in the sample from each of these distributaries. Thus, three watercourses were randomly selected from each of the head, middle and tail reaches of the three pilot distributaries using a lottery method. At Heran Distributary, Khadwari Minor also offtakes from the distributary and comprises seven watercourses. To give equal weight to different reaches of the minor, one watercourse from each of the abovementioned strata was randomly selected with a total sub-sample comprising 3 watercourses on this minor. In total, the sample comprised 30 watercourses out of a total of 80 for the three pilot distributaries.The selected sample watercourses for each distributary is presented in Afler random selection of the watercourses at each distributary/ minor during the first stage, the water users were enlisted on all of the selected watercourses on a predesigned form meant to record the schedule of effective water turns of the water users.This schedule is usually referred to as a warabandi proforma. A majority of watercourses have an official warabandi established by the Provincial Irrigation Department (PID) at the request of the farmers, which prescribes the time allocation among each of the landholdings for the water supply entering the watercourse command area. This official warabandi is the only record of a \"water right\" held by each landowner. It also has importance for settling disputes by arbitration 4 . The official warabandis were not sufficient for the purpose of the current survey as these contain the names and water entitlement right of the land owners only and there is no information on actual water users. Thus, these warabandis needed to be prepared afresh considering the situation on the ground at that time.For preparation of these lists, the team members walked along each of the selected sample watercourses. The team members went to each watercourse to meet with the person who was available in the field irrigating his land and to collect the information about himself and his neighboring water users. This information provided the exact total number of the water users at each watercourse, including owner operators, tenants and lessees, or a combination of these categories. Considering the enormous number of total water users, it was decided to cover half of them.During this second stage, every alternate water user was included in the sample with a random start at each watercourse. There had been 1,060 water users in total, out of which 530 water users were selected for data collection. The number of respondents in the sample from various study sites are shown in Figure 2.1. Tables 2.2a and 2.2b present the total number of water users on each of the selected watercourses with tenancy breakup, and the number of selected water users for each of these watercourses on the three pilot distributarieslminor. Sadiqia (South) Irrigation and Drainage Project area in south eastern Punjab. This questionnaire was adopted with some modifications suggested in a peer review within the organization. The pretesting of this questionnaire was undertaken on all of the three pilot distributarieslminors with the different water users. The suggestions and the feedback by the field staff provided useful inputs for its amendment, which were incorporated in the questionnaire and the contents were finalized for launching the baseline survey in the field.The training of the field staff regarding the purpose of the survey, and the concepts used, is an important area to address as conceptual controversies are the main source of bias in the data. Three full days of training workshops were organized at the three field stations for the field staff who had to act as enumerators for the survey before launching the actual survey. The training was focused on the concepts employed in the sample survey, sample design, basic principles of research methodology, organization of field work, collecting information using the questionnaire through interviews, checking the contents of the filled-in questionnaires, accuracy of the data, organization and supervision of the data collection work, etc. The output of the training was that the enumerators and their supervisors were coordinated.Several problems were faced during the actual conduct of the survey. Non-availability of the respondents at the time of visit by the field staff was one of the major problems.The solution was sought in paying two to three visits at the site for interviewing the respondents. Yet, four of the respondents could not be traced and interviewed till the end of the survey and were discarded for inclusion in the survey.Another problem was the engagement of water users in cultivation of the cotton crop during the day-time. This problem was resolved by paying visits in the evening to the water users who were unavailable during the day-time.Another problem encountered was due to the cultural set-up of the pilot area. A number of absentee landlords and other landowners, who were not the water users, objected to having their tenants interviewed. Some of the tenants could not respond to questions on crop yields as the production was taken away by the landlord and was weighed by him. Such tenants were informed by the landlords about their own shares only.Being an interview on a recall basis, the responses to some questions were difficult to remember for the water users. They only responded in hunches and crude estimates to such questions.The duration of the interview was recorded as being almost two hours initially, which was boring for the water users. Sometimes, the water users had the tendency to respond indirectly with a story as a pretext. Later, however, the enumerators gained experience and the duration was reduced.Training of Field Staff on Survey Problems Faced in the Field During Data CollectionData Entry and Analysis Data gathered by the field teams, through personal interviews on the questionnaire, were fed to the computer using the spreadsheet package, LOTUS 123, which were processed and analyzed using SPSSPC soflware. During data entry, some problems were faced regarding the units of measurements, which were not uniform for all of the field teams. These were later converted to the same units while editing. Some of the water users did not respond to some of the questions. These were regarded as no response. There had been some entries that were found surprisingly high or low. These were checked through follow-ups with the enumerators, who had been asked to record important points in their notebooks. Some of the questionnaires had to be recheckedlreconfirmed by paying another visit to the actual respondent.Coverage of the SurveyThe target group for the current survey were the water users engaged in the actual use of irrigation water at various farms of the watercourse. This included the owner operators, lessees and tenants.Although there are only three pilot sites, Bareji Distributary in Mirpurkhas. Dhoro Naro Minor in Nawabshah, and Heran Distributary in Sanghar. the analysis has been done in terms of four sites by considering the Khadwari Minor as a separate unit, which offlakes from the Heran Distributary, for the purpose of this survey. In total, 526 water users were interviewed personally, 170 at Bareji Distributary, 168 at Dhoro Naro Minor, 161 at Heran Distributary and 27 at Khadwari Minor. The number of respondents with respect to location of the farm on the watercourse is presented in Table 2.4 for the respective distributaries/ minors. In this section, the results are presented regarding the general characteristics of the sampled water users, such as age, experience in farming, marital status, father's occupation, educational attainments, religion, family size, on-farm family employment, tenancy status, farm size, etc. Such characteristics help in knowing the community for planning an intended intervention. These characteristics also determine the extent to which the community will accept the intervention and can be helpful in devising a strategy for entering into the community.Age is one of the important characteristics of the community. It reflects on the productivity of the population as it has a bearing on the overall health situation within the community. In developing countries, aged members are more prone to diseases and thus are less productive. It has a bearing on the employment pattern, spatial mobility and quality of work done. Age plays a significant role in any kind of business, particularly in agriculture, because the use of child labor on the farms is quite high.The respondents are divided into three age groups (i.e. upto 30, 31 to 60. and above 60 years of age). The idea behind these classes is that the middle group (31-60 years) is the most productive age group in farming. The distribution of respondents with respect to these age groups is presented in Experience is positively associated with earnings. Conceptually, it is measured in years as a continuous variable as reported by Haque (1988). In Pakistan, the agricultural community uses their family members in the field directly or indirectly from quite a young age. Regardless of the type of work done, as an offspring of an agricultural family, there is a general tendency among people involved in agriculture to claim that they are in the field since birth, or at least from early childhood. The difference between age and experience can thus be reported as low as 5 years.The mean number of years of experience in irrigated agriculture of the sample water users varies between 20, 27, 30 and 26 years for Bareji Distributary, Dhoro Naro Minor, Heran Distributary and Khadwari Minor, respectively. The values of standard errors are quite reasonable for pilot sites other than Bareji Distributary. While there are differences among water users belonging to different distributaries1 minors, a majority of the respondents had experience upto 40 years.Comparing the means of age and experience in irrigated agriculture of the respondents, it appears that they have started their agriculture job at an early age of around 10 to 15 years of age. Table 3.3 shows that an overwhelming majority of the respondents are married at all of the pilot sites. Unmarried singles and widower respondents form less than 5 per cent in case of Heran Distributary and 11 per cent in case of Khadwari Minor. The results are not surprising, because still in rural areas, the marriages take place at early ages so that they have children at an early age, who are considered an addition to the family human capital. Besides, the males usually are encouraged to be married even at a much later stage, so there is only a meager chance that a water user, who ought to be a male, is unmarried or widower. -In Table 3.4. an attempt is made to present information on the father's occupation of the water users. It is clear that almost 90 per cent of the respondents have adopted farming merely because of being a farmer's son. This may be ascribed to several reasons. The lack of availability of acquirable non-farm skills in rural communities precludes the possibility of moving outside agriculture. Besides, once someone becomes educated. his first preference would be not to become a successful farmer, but a well groomed white collar urban dweller. Thus, those in farming are usually not there by choice, but are forced to stay in their ancestral occupation.Another way of looking at the situation is that the relation between land and man is socially seen as that of mother and son. This strong bond is also an important reason for helping farmers' sons to become future farmers. The educational breakdown of the respondents is presented in Table 3.5. It can be seen that the majority of water users at all of the pilot sites were illiterate, except for Khadwari Minor. The literacy was found at a minimum among the respondents of Bareji Distributary and at maximum among the respondents belonging to Heran Distributary and Khadwari Minor. One important reason could be the high proportion of settlers at Heran Distributary and Khadwari Minor.As can be seen at the bottom row of Table 3.5, the mean number of school-going children is very low. The standard deviation is very high, indicating a high variation within each pilot site.The rural population in the regressive culture of Sindh involves their children in the field at an early age as family labor. Educating of children is considered a double loss. On the one hand, the family loses part of the income accruing to child labour and, on the other hand, there are additional expenditures to be incurred on fees, books, etc. In general, the responses to the question on reasons for not sending children to school were:non-availability of schools in the area; since poor people do not get jobs in the government sector for merely being poor, it is therefore, of no use to send children to schools;the children will adopt farming as a career and that does not need an education the family cannot afford to pay for hired labour so they can not afford to part with as declared by the respondents; and their children's cost-free services. In Mirpurkhas and Nawabshah sites, only a very small proportion of the family size were the school-going children, the mean number per family being 0.8 at Bareji Distributary, 1.7 at Dhoro Naro Minor, 2.5 at Heran Distributary and 2.6 at Khadwari Minor, which forms 11 O h , 13%, 26% and 20%, respectively, of all children of school age. It can be noticed that the proportion of female children going to school is much lower than that of male children at Bareji and Dhoro Naro; the relatively higher proportion at Sanghar district can be attributed to the community structure, which is more or less composed of settlers.In Table 3.6. the average family size for the respondents is presented for the different pilot sites. The joint family system is quite popular in the rural areas of Sindh Province.In only a few cases are nuclear families found. Grandparents, parents and children (even if married) share the same household. In some cases, it was found that they had one kitchen with more than 20 family members.The mean number of family members per household was found to be 7.5 at Bareji Distributary, 12.8 at Dhoro Naro Minor, 9.5 at Heran Distributary and 12.9 at Khadwari Minor.Bareji Distributary N=170 Dhoro Naro Minor N=168 The value of the standard deviation indicates that, except for the Khadwari Minor, the estimates for mean family size are reliable.The sex composition for the family size is almost equal for Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors, but it is slightly unequal for the two distributaries.In Nawabshah and Sanghar sites, almost all of the water users are Muslims, but at Bareji Distributary in Mirpurkhas. 56 percent are Non-Muslims (these are mostly the Hindu tenants). Table 3.7 The mean number of family members involved in fulf-time farming were 2.3 at Bareji Distributary, 4.1 at Dhoro Naro Minor, 2.0 at Heran Distributary and 2.7 at Khadwari Minor, whereas the mean number of family members involved in part-time farming was 1.5 at Bareji Distributary, 1.6 at Dhoro Naro Minor, 1.8 at Heran Distributary and 0.8 at Khadwari Minor. The values of the standard deviations suggest that the data is highly variable and the estimates obtained are not reliable in this regard. Also, in most of the cases, the full-time employment consists more of males, while for the part-time employment, the converse is true.As regards the tenancy status, three contrasting tenancy relationships can be discerned among the actual tillers of land; owner operators, tenants and lessees. The owner operator is defined as a person who (or whose family) owns as well as operates the farm himself. An owner operator is usually also the sole decision-maker regarding all agricultural activities to be conducted at his/ her farm and consequently bears the loss or enjoys the profit. A tenant is a person who cultivates the land belonging to someone else on a crop-share basis; usually the decisions are jointly taken by both the tenant and the (absentee) landlord, and both of them share the profit or loss jointly. Some decisions are, nevertheless, under the sole jurisdiction of one of the parties. A lessee is a person who operates a rented farm on cash. He is independent in taking decisions regarding planning the crops to be cultivated and is fully entitled to the farm earnings from the crop enterprise.Besides the abovementioned categories, there are a number of other tenurial categories that comprise a combination of the above categories. It is generally believed that a person holds one of the abovementioned categories when referred to a specific farm, but when talking to a water user, he may hold more than one piece of land on the same watercourse, thus being a single water user but holding more than one tenurial status. Such categories include owner-operator-cum-tenant, owner-operator-cum-lessee, owneroperator-cum-lessor, tenant-cum-lessee, landowner-cum-tenant, landowner and owneroperator-cum-tenant-cum-lessor. All of these categories are grouped under \"others\".  Table 3.9 shows that at Bareji Distributary, Dhoro Naro Minor and Heran Distributary, the majority of the sample water users are tenants, whereas at Khadwari Minor, the majority are owner operators. Other categories form a small proportion of the total and range between roughly 4 per cent at Khadwari Minor to 15 percent at Heran Distributary. Figure 3.1 shows the significance of this differentiation.Size of land holding is one of the important determinants of social status and economic well-being and also has a bearing on the power relations and social interactions among water users. Size of holding here is defined as the area operated by a water user at the particular watercourse and includes the area owned plus area leasedlrented in minus area leasedlrented out. The picture is reflected in The mean total area operated by the respondents was 7.4 acres at Bareji Distributary, 12.8 at Dhoro Naro Minor, 17.9 at Heran Distributary, and 20.1 at Khadwari Minor.Mean area owned by respondents stood as 4.7 acres at Bareji Distributary. 8.8 at Dhoro Naro Minor, 9.1 at Heran Distributary, and 15.2 at Khadwari Minor.Except in the case of respondents at Heran Distributary and its Khadwari Minor, more than half of the operated area is comprised of sharedneased in area. The area sharedneased out is comparatively low at all the sites. Overall 170 ( 100) 168 ( 100) 161 ( 100) 27 ( 100)The farm size here reflects the area operated by a respondent and/ or his family. It can be seen from Table 3.11 that a majority of the respondents operate farms between 5 to 16 acres. The subsistence holding in Sindh is considered to be 16 acres. This means that in the pilot distributaries, most of the farmers are small farmers. At Heran Distributary and its Khadwari Minor, a sizeable proportion (22 and 33 per cent, respectively) of the respondents were operating farms above 25 acres to 100 acres. It can thus be asserted that at Bareji and Dhoro Naro, most of the farmers are small farmers, whereas at Heran Distributary and its Khadwari Minor, more large land owners are present. This is further supported by the fact that a majority of the respondents at Bareji and Dhoro Naro are tenants, who usually operate subsistence farms.Farm Size Classification of the RespondentsIrrigation water, being the most scarce resource afler land, is very important for agriculture. Efficiency of the farmers regarding the use of canal supplies for irrigation purposes can be evaluated by studying their irrigation and water management practices.In this section, an attempt is made to identify the main sources of irrigation, methods employed to irrigate fields, sufficiency of the supplies to meet the crop requirements, arrangements for water distribution, and satisfaction of the end users regarding the system and its performance.The physical environment of the area limits the choices for irrigation water to canal supplies and a few of privately owned tubewells to extract ground water. There were no public tubewells at the time of conducting this survey. Sometimes, farmers opt for a conjunctive use of tubewell and canal water to meet irrigation requirements of the crops.Use of different sources for irrigation in the pilot sites is presented in Table 4.1.Table 4.1. Sources of Irrigation Water.The source exploited for irrigation water supply in all of the pilot sites was almost limited to canal water only. The conjunctive use of canal and groundwater was reported by the water users of Dhoro Naro Minor in Nawabshah, but that too, to a very limited extent. Only 7 percent of the total respondents in that area reported using canal and tubewells together.The low exploitation of the groundwater is understandable as a major proportion of the LBOD project area is characterized by high water table and the quality of ground water is bad or marginal, in general, in terms of salinity. Augmenting the rather static canal supplies by using groundwater conjunctively is only feasible to the extent that it does not cause crop loss. Besides, spatial location of the tubewells also limits the choice to purchasing and conveying groundwater at the farm at the hour of need.The adequacy of irrigation supplies to meet crop water requirements is one of the areas that is to be addressed for managing irrigation for sustainable agriculture. Although a more technical way of studying the situation would be to launch on-farm field trails, but the results thus obtained would be difficult to generalize for the entire pilot site as the soil characteristics. conveyance losses, and other factors in the agricultural environment may differ.Similar results can also be obtained by analyzing the general feelings of the farmers regarding this matter as they know their area and crops better. Their perceptions were obtained regarding the extent of sufficiency of present irrigation supplies for fulfillment of crop water requirements and the results are presented in Table 4.2.At Khadwari Minor in Sanghar District, a majority of the respondents thought that the present water supplies from all sources were not sufficient to meet crop water requirements. Respondents from Dhoro Naro Minor in Nawabshah and Heran Distributary in Sanghar were more or less satisfied with their water supplies. Conversely, 45 per cent of the respondents from Bareji Distributary were, in general, of the view that the current supplies were sufficient to meet crop water requirements to a large extent. Since canal water is the main source of irrigation, it was also studied whether canal water was sufficient or not. The pattern of the canal supplies differs during the two major cropping seasons (i.e. kharif and rabi). Being an interview on a recall basis, the most recent two cropping seasons were the reference period for the question on sufficiency of canal water.1The majority of the water users at all pilot site command areas were of the opinion that canal water was not sufficient for crops during the last kharif season. It was sufficient during the last rabi season for the water users, except those at Khadwari Minor. Water distribution among the watercourses results into water disputes among the water users of the watercourse. Responses regarding satisfaction of the respondents from present water distribution at the watercourses are presented in Table 4.4.The evidence is that thewater users at Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor were satisfied with the distribution among the watercourses, but the water users of Heran Distributary and its Khadwari Minor had mixed feelings.  Each of these methods has advantages and disadvantages in terms of application efficiency, impact on crop yield, etc.The choice of the farmer is determined by the soil type, labour intensity of the method, labour availability, availability of equiprneht. resource endowment, etc. The results regarding irrigation methods employed are presented in Table 4.5.It is evident from Table 4.5 that most of the water users of the Dhoro Naro Minor, Heran Distributary and Khadwari Minor used the basin method for irrigation, whereas those at Warabandi is the local name for the irrigation water turn schedule for the shareholders of a particular watercourse. There are two arrangements for water distribution; formal or pakka warabandi (officially fixed), which is fixed by the Irrigation Department, and informal or kachcha warabandi. which is managed by farmers with mutual agreement.At most of the watercourses, an official warabandi has been notified and 'is being followed, but the gaps between the official warabandis and their actual implementation are increasing (Bandaragoda and Rehman, 1995). The informal or kachcha warabandi is disappearing from the scene.Table 4.6 shows that pucca warabandi was found to be predominant at Nawabshah and Sanghar sites, whereas at the Bareji Distributary command in the Mirpurkhas area, most of the respondents believed that there was no warabandi in practice. The reason is that at this distributary, many of the farms are operated by the tenants and servants. Since the water right is established for a farm belonging to the zamindar in the warabandi and he is entitled to use his turn at his farm, but he arranges the distribution among various tenants and servants operating parts of his farm with his own consent. Sometimes, this duty is performed by his manager, called karndaar, who is authorized to do so by the zamindar. Thus, the arrangement becomes adhoc and no tenant or servant knows exactly when he will be allowed to irrigate during the zamindar's irrigation turn. Each shareholder of a watercourse has an irrigation turn on the specific watercourse.The length of the turn, in general, is proportionate to the size of the culturable command area of the plot of land to be irrigated. Some allowance and adjustments are made in the water turn for compensation of the conveyance loss to tail areas. The time needed to fill and empty the watercourse for different locations are also adjusted in the warabandi.Time required to irrigate an acre depends on the type of soil, location of the farm on the watercourse, route and physical condition of the watercourse, actual discharge drawn by the outlet, etc. In The dissatisfaction regarding distribution of irrigation water results generally from the faulty operations of the system. Even if the system is operated efficiently, poor maintenance will cause mal-distribution. Similarly, faulty operations cause maintenance problems. Thus, operations and maintenance are interdependent to some extent.The respondents were enquired about their satisfaction regarding maintenance of their channels. The results are presented in To some extentNo commentRegarding the maintenance of the irrigation system, the respondents had mixed feelings. The majority of the respondents from Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors were not satisfied with the present maintenance condition of the system. About 44 percent of the water users of the Bareji Distributary were satisfied to a large extent and the majority of the Heran Distributary were satisfied to some extent with the maintenance of the irrigation system. The respondents were questioned on their perceptions regarding the role of proper irrigation management on crop yields (Table 4.9). Almost all of the respondent were affirmative to the statement\" due to proper management of irrigation at your field, the yields of crops would increase\". Only 2 and 3 per cent disagreed, respectively, at Dhoro Naro and Bareji.Most of the respondents also claimed that they were aware of the proper requirement of irrigation water for different crops. The proportion of people who were unaware was the same as for the respondents who did not agree to the impact of proper water management on crop yield. They were either really ignorant, or were not serious, in their responses. An important aspect studied during the survey is the perceptions of the water users regarding the performance of the irrigation system. Irrigation system performance can be evaluated by examining it in terms of equitable distribution, reliability of water supplies and adequacy of water etc.This section intends to briefly present the results on the perceptions of the water users on the abovementioned topics. Section 5.1 deals with equity in water distribution. Section 5.2 discusses reliability of water supplies, while Section 5.3 presents perceptions on adequacy of irrigation water supplies.Equity in Water Distribution At the tertiary level of an irrigation system, a number of water users irrigate their farms from the same watercourse. With the introduction of a pucca warabandi irrigation timings for each farm were fixed, and a semblance of water rights was established. This helped in diminishing the number of water related disputes arising out of mal-distribution of water within the commend areas of watercourses.The respondents were asked about their perceptions on distribution of water at the watercourse. It is evident from Table 5.1 that an overwhelming majority of the respondents regarded water distribution at the watercourse level as equitable. At the Khadwari Minor, however, more than one-third of the respondents regarded water distribution to be inequitable.  Bareji. one-fifth of the respondents believed that there was no equity, while more than two-fifths believed that irrigation water was equitably distributed among different watercourses. Almost one-third of the respondents were those who perhaps were unsure, or did not want to respond. In general, the respondents saw an increasing equity in water distribution as their evaluation shifted from the branch canal through the distributarylminor to the watercourse. Many did not know much about the situation within the branch canal (between the distributaries), but generally acknowledged the inequity within the distributary (between the watercourses). Like equity, reliability of irrigation supplies is also assessed from the perceptions/ experiences of the water users. If a water user receives irrigation water when he is expecting it, the supply can be regarded as reliable and the converse is also true.There can be two important indicators for determining whether the canal supplies are reliable or not. Firstly, due to an unexpected absence of water from the canal and, therefore, the water users miss their irrigation turn as a consequence. Secondly, it is quite possible that the canall distributary is discharging water, but it is not reaching the farmers fields because somebody might have stolen water upstream in the watercourse.The data presented in Table 5.3 show that a majority of the sampled water users missed some of their water turns, both during the last kharif, as well as rabi, seasons.  Clearly, during the kharif season, more water users missed their irrigati0n.turn.s. The proportion of such water users varied between 71 per cent at Heran Distributary to 90 per cent at Dhoro Naro Minor. Similarly, during rabi. the proportion of those water users who missed their turn ranged between 58 per cent at Dhoro Naro Minor to 91 per cent at Bareji Distributary.Those who did not respond are water users who are tenants and had not leasedl shared in land until recently at that watercourse; thus, they were not aware of the situation during the reference period.The conclusion can be made that for a majority of the respondents, water availability was unreliable during the reference period. The information regarding the incidents reported by the water users about their stolen water turns is presented in Table 5.4. It can be witnessed from Table 5.4 that the incidents of water stealing are only far and few between. Only 5 to 52 per cent of the water users reported water stealing during their turn in Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors, respectively, during the 1995 kharif season.The proportion of the respondents who reported water stealing for the 1994-1995 rabi season ranged between 3 to 33 percent at the same locations (i.e. Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors). Moreover, it can be seen that the proportion of water users reporting water stealing is higher in the case of kharif compared to the rabi season because the water shortage problem is more acute during the kharif season. The adequacy of the canal water for irrigation purposes can be assessed by water transactions among water users. In this section, an attempt is made to analyze water turns purchased, sold and exchanged by the water users of the pilot sites.Table 5.5 presents the situation regarding the purchase of irrigation water turns. It can be seen that while nobody purchased an irrigation turn at Bareji Distributary and Khadwari Minor, some water users reported purchases of irrigation turns at Dhoro Naro Minor and Heran Distributary. The proportion of such water users is as low as 8 per cent at Heran Distributary and around 4 per cent at the Dhoro naro Minor.The canal water is a scarce input as the tubewell water in this area cannot be regarded a close substitute. This points to the fact that, though a lot of water users would be interested to buy irrigation turns from someone else as a potential buyer, but not many water users would be ready to sell their water turns and ruin their own crops. As indicated above, not many water users would be ready to sell their irrigation turn. The situation is reflected in Table 5.6, which reflects that almost no one sold an irrigation turn duYing the last two cropping seasons. This looks somewhat surprising as the question arises that how did those water users manage to buy a water turn who reported so. This can, in part, be attributed to the fact that the sale of an irrigation turn is legally prohibited, so those who actually sold water might have not responded truthfully to the enumerator because of the'fear of information leakage and consequent punishment. Unlike canal water transactions, the mutual exchange of irrigation turns is quite common among the water users. The situation is reflected in Table 5.7. Many water users mutually exchanged their irrigation turns. The extent of involvement in exchanging irrigation turns varies among the pilot sites and among the seasons as well. NoDuring the 1995 Kharif season, more than half of the respondents at Bareji exchanged turns, while slightly less than half of the respondents at Heran were involved in exchanging irrigation turns. This tendency was comparatively low at both the minors to the extent of 17 and 22 per cent at Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors, respectively.During the 1994-1995 Rabi season, this tendency of exchanging water furns declined among the water users of Bareji, Dhoro Naro and Heran. but the water users of Khadwari stagnated at the same proportion as that of kharif. The extent of decline was highest at the Dhoro Naro Minor, where almost half of the water users who exchanged water turns during kharif abstained from doing so during the rabi season.Applicable I I I IWhen discussing institutional development, there is a need to study the activities that are already being undertaken by the community. While discussing the socio-economic characteristics of a community and potential for institutional development within the community, it is important to look at what collective actions the community is undertaking already. The level of collective action among the community members reflects on the potential for an organized effort for collective solutions of common problems, such as those confronted in irrigation management.This section intends to discuss the results regarding involvement of the community in collective action, their knowledge about the already formed Water Users Associations (WUAs) and, finally, their experiences and perceptions regarding an organized effort for solution of common oroblems.This topic is sub-divided into three sections. Section 6.1 reflects the knowledge of the respondents about the existence and membership of the already formed WUAs. In Section 6.2, results regarding the involvement of the respondents in various collective activities are presented. Section 6.3 entails some discussions on the potential for a collective and organized effor't for irrigation management.The Water Users Associations were formed by the On-Farm Water Management Directorate for watercourse improvements. The results regarding the knowledge of the respondents on existence and membership are presented in Table 6.1.A majority of the water users at Heran Distributary knew that a WUA was formed at their watercourse. In all other sites, the water users believed that there was no WUA at their watercourse. This sounds surprising, but there are reasons. When looking into the actual situation regarding the social and physical context of WUA formation, most of the watercourses were lined because of large landowners, who usually are absentee landlords. Their tenants are never aware that a WUA is to be formed before lining is undertaken. On the other hand, small owner operators are less interested as the lining usually takes place in that part of the area that runs through the land belonging to big landlords, so that at the time of WUA formation, such landlords do no consult other farmers, so they remain unaware.Knowledge About the Water Users Associations Naturally, all of those who responded that there was no WUA on their watercourse, were not the members of the WUA and the question was not applicable to them. The highest proportion of WUA member respondents was at Heran Distributary (21%). Others might have not been involved due to tenancy, or farm size considerations, as discussed above.Only a small proportion of the respondents were aware of a WUA on other watercourses of the village or outside the village.This surprising response can be a'scribed to the fact that the WUAs were initiated some 15 years ago in the ,country for the purpose of effecting physical improvement or lining of the watercourses, and soon afler the physical work was achieved, these WUAs became defunct. Since they did not perform any visible and continuous role aflerwards, the level of interest among the farmers declined regarding them.There are several physical, economic and social activities that collectively involve the water users. The participation of the community in such activities determines the potential of the community to undertake a responsibility jointly and in an organized manner. Table 6.2' and Figure 6.1 entail the details of the participation by t b respondents in such activities.,Per cent of Resoondents The level of collective action among the water users is quite high at all of the three pilot sites. particularly as reflected in their contribution towards the maintenance of watercourses. Almost all of the respondents participated in maintenance of the watercourse. The majority of the respondents at Bareji and Heran distributaries, as well as Khadwari Minor, and about half of the respondents at Dhoro Naro Minor were, involved in the maintenance the distributaries/ minor also. The involvement of the respondents in collective solution of the disputes related to land and water ranged between one-fifth at Khadwari Minor to over half at Dhoro Naro Minor. Since water and land disputes are of different kinds and nature, some can be solved within the community and many others cannot, so the involvement was low compared to maintenance of the watercourse and distributary.Maintenance and construction of the village mosque is another collective activity that was performed by the water users of all the three pilot sites. The degree of participation ranged between 31 per cent at Bareji Distributary to 97 per cent at Heran Distributary. Participation in collective maintenance of the village school was also noticeable. This was, nevertheless, lowest at Dhoro Naro where only around 6 per cent of the respondents participated. At Heran Distributary, 4 respondents out of every 5 were involved in collective maintenance of the village school.The activities that were not, but could be, undertaken by the respondents collectively were collective purchase of agricultural inputs and disposal of the marketing surplus of the produce realized at their farms. The underlying reasons could be differences in resource endowments of the different categories of the respondents with respect to size of their holdings. For instance, big farmers can buy inputs on credit in advance, because they are big customers, but a small tenant cannot because of low credit-worthiness.Similarly, small farmers tend to market the crop produce as early as possible due to weak financial position. while the big land owners can wait for peak demand periods. Due to these differences, there is a clash of interest in these activities and the tendency to undertake these activities is non-existentThe potential for an organized collective effort for solving joint problems can be assessed with respect to the previous acquaintance of the respondents with some organized effort in development, their involvement in such activities, willingness to work for a common good, and willingness to contribute time and money for such an effort. Table 6.3 entails the details of responses by the water users at the various pilot sites.Potential for Organized Efforts for Solving Common Problems An overwhelming majority of the respondents were aware of some organization catering to development works in their area. This awareness was lowest at the Dhoro Naro Minor but, still around 70% of the respondents were aware. For rest of the three distributaries/ minors, the awareness was as high as around 97 per cent.Many of the respondents, themselves, were involved in some kind of organization as initiating members of the organization. The proportion of such respondents ranged between roughly 27 per cent at Bareji to 67 per cent at Khadwari. An overwhelming majority of the respondents showed their willingness towards working for development with people. The proportion of such respondents was higher than 92 per cent at all of the pilot sites.A vast majority showed their willingness and readiness to contribute labour and affordable money for such an organization. The level of willingness varied between 85 per cent at Dhoro Naro Minor to 100 per cent at Khadwari Minor.From the above discussion, it appears that the respondents are very much willing to work in an organized manner for the common good. There is a great potential and scope within the water users community at all of the pilot sites.The potential for organized effort in irrigation management can be determined by three factors: (a) willingness of the water users to form a water users association at the watercourse; (b) willingness to federate these associations; and (c) willingness to contribute towards O&M of the distributary. The results obtained on these areas are presented in Table 6.4.At Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor, an overwhelming majority of the respondents wanted to form a water users association. At Heran Distributary and Khadwari Minor, the response was 38 and 48 per cent respectively. Low response at this distributary can be attributed to the fact that some of them are already members (see Table 6.1) and to the rest of them it is not applicable. On the contrary, there are fewer numbers of already established WUAs at Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor. The potential to federate these WUAs into a Water Users Federation (WUF) is high as expressed by the perceptions of the respondents. In no case did the proportion of the respondents with a positive answer drop below 85 per cent. At Khadwari Minor, all of the respondents affirmed that the WUAs could be federated.The water users expressed their willingness to contribute money for meeting the financial outlays on distributary operations and maintenance. The extent of readiness varied between 85 per cent at Dhoro Naro Minor to 93 per cent at Khadwari Minor.In summary, it can be concluded that though many of the respondents did not have a formal exposure to an organized effort for solving common problems, but they have knowledge and are willing to form, federate and sustain a water users organization as they showed a willingness to even contribute funds for meeting the financial liabilities of the organization. While there seems to be no difference for participating in collective action between the head and the tail respondents, but the middle reach respondents participated more in collective action. The share of respondents of this class who participated in three or more activities is 72 % compared to 61% and 64 % for the head and tail reach respondents, respectively, which is quite high. Nevertheless, this cannot help in concluding that head farmers are less cooperative.A more important way to look at these responses could be to analyze participation in maintenance of watercourses by location. Theocratically, there are more watercourserelated problems at the middle and tail reaches and, therefore, the probability of participation in watercourse maintenance is more for the middle and tail reach farmers. Table 6.7 presents the picture gained from the baseline data.lining is generally undertaken at the head reaches of the watercourses that might have been conceived as maintenance by the respondents.The farther that the farm is situated along the watercourse, the higher are the conveyance losses: consequently, the time needed to irrigate an acre becomes greater with distance from the outlet. This proposition can be tested by cross-tabulating the time needed to irrigate an acre with location of the farm along the watercourse. In Table 6.8, the time needed to irrigate an acre has been classified into three groups, i.e. one hour or less, between one and two hours, and more than two hours. The situation is presented in Table 6.8. Obviously, from Table 6.8. that the majority of the respondents (91 %) from the head reach reported that the time required to irrigate an acre as being less than 2 hours, while almost half of them reported it to be less than an hour. Contrary to this, most of the respondents from the middle and tail reaches reported this time to be more than an hour.Although the value of the correlation coefficient is low, but this coefficient and the Chisquare test are highly significant, indicating that the difference in time required for irrigation of an acre significantly increases with location of the farm along the watercourse.98 ( 47 Because of high water tables and brackish groundwater, the soil degradation is quite rapidly increasing in the area. Without proper management practices regarding land, waterlogging and salinity, it is quite probable that in a few years, the fertile lands will refuse to produce anything. At the same time, LBOD has been designed and constructed to alleviate these problems. During the survey, the knowledge and management practices of the respondents regarding these areas were also recorded. This section focusses on their perceptions and practices.Section 7.1 discuss the perceptions and knowledge of the respondents regarding relations between land levelling and water utilization and precision land levelling. In Section 7.2, an attempt is made to study their perceptions on quality of groundwater. Section 7.3 is reserved for their knowledge about past and present water table depths and information on land affected by waterlogging and salinity. The last section discusses the management practices used by them to alleviate waterlogging and salinity.If someone does not believe that land levelling is important for optimal use of water, it is unlikely that he will opt for levelling for optimal water use. The responses of the water users regarding this and precision land levelling are presented in Table 7.1.An overwhelming majority of the respondents believe that land levelling is a crucial factor to optimize the utilization of water. The proportion of the respondents who acknowledged the statement ranged between 96 per cent at Bareji to 100 per cent at Khadwari Minor.On the other hand, almost 9 out of 10 respondents were unaware of precision land levelling, Over 10 per cent of the respondents from Dhoro Naro Minor were familiar with precision land levelling, which was the highest proportion among all of the sites. Precision land levelling is becoming more familiar because of the On-Farm Water Management Directorate, which is employing this technology at demonstration centers in their respective areas. Since there is a low tendency among the general farmers to visit demonstration centers of agriculture-related agencies, they are less familiar with this technology. This also suggests that extension measures are needed to promote and popularize the concept and advantages of precision land levelling. Farmers are the best judges to assess the quality of ground water as they are using it since the pre-irrigation period for cultivation of crops. They were enquired about their feelings about the quality of ground water and their responses are presented in At Bareji Distributary, as well as Heran Distributary and its Khadwari Minor, the majority (84%. 59% and 67%, respectively) of the respondents perceived that the quality of groundwater was unfit for irrigation purposes. In the case of Dhoro Naro Minor, 42 percent of the respondents felt that it was fit while another 11 percent thought that it was of marginal quality that should be used only during extreme water shortages.In general, the quality of groundwater was regarded not suitable for irrigation purposes. This should be noted that within each distributary/ minor command area, there is a variation in responses. This may be attributed to the spatial nature of the ground water quality. Even within the same watercourse command area, the quality of groundwater may vary due to the nature of the underlying soil layers.A majority of respondents claimed that they had knowledge about the depth to water table in their respective areas. The proportion of the respondents who responded positively ranged between almost 90 per cent in Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors to 98 per cent at Heran Distributary.The average farm area affected by waterlogging and salinity varied between almost 2.5 acres (19 and 12 % of the mean area operated respectively) at Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors to over 4 acres (52 and 24 per cent of the mean area operated, respectively) at Bareji and Heran distributaries. The high value of standard deviations is higher than the means, indicating that there are high variations among various responses regarding area affected within each of the distributaries/ minor. To most of the respondents, the ground water table has dropped during the last two years. The extent of reported drop varied between around 1 foot at Bareji Distributary to about 4 feet at Dhoro Naro Minor. The reported figures, nevertheless, varied among different respondents of the same distributary to a great extent as the respective standard deviations are quite high. The responses from Khadwari Minor, however, about reported water depth can be regarded quite consistent as the standard deviations are less than half of the mean.Waterlogging and salinity are not caused only by local conditions: rather this twin menace arises from collective human actions over large areas. Although it may not be eliminated altogether locally, but it can be minimized by adopting local solutions in conjunction with large-scale efforts. In Table 7.4, the salinity and waterlogging management practices adopted by the water users are presented.At the Bareji Distributary in Mirpurkhas, a majority of the respondents (66%) used grass to control waterlogging and salinity. Cultivation of rice for leaching salts is another common practice adopted by one-quarter of the respondents. Use of gypsum and plantation of salt resistant trees are, however, not yet so popular.At the Dhoro Naro Minor in Nawabshah. none of the salinity control measures is frequently practiced as is indicated from Table 7.4. Only 16 per cent of the respondents cultivated grass to control salinity.Among the respondents from Heran Distributary the cultivation of grass, rice and planting trees are somewhat popular as 42 per cent, 32 per cent, and 27 per cent of the water users were using these measures, respectively.At Khadwari Minor of the Heran distributary, almost every fifth respondent planted trees and/ or cultivated rice for lowering the water table and minimizing salinity, while every ninth respondent was reported using gypsum for reclaiming the land. The importance of drainage to irrigated lands cannot be over-emphasized. The prime idea behind the LBOD Project is that afler completion of the drainage system, its O&M should be turned over to farmers because the government cannot subsidize irrigated agriculture any more. This section, therefore, discusses the perceptions of the respondents on various aspects of drainage.Section 8.1 is focussed on perceptions regarding availability of drainage facilities and its importance and usefulness for crops. Section 8.2 entails farmers' perceptions on their views about O&M responsibilities and willingness to contribute towards O&M.Table 8.1 presents perceptions of the respondents about the existence and importance of drains in the area. Almost all of the respondents were familiar with the drainage system in the project area. Nevertheless, every fourth respondent at Dhoro Naro Minor and every tenth respondent at Bareji was unaware of the drainage system.At Bareji 96 per cent, at Dhoro Naro 94 per cent, at Heran Distributary 96 per cent and all the respondents at its Khadwari Minor believed that drainage will help in increasing crop yields. Whereas 1, 6 and 4 per cent of the respondents were unsure about this at Bareji distributary, Dhoro Naro Minor and Heran Distributary, respectively.Almost all of the respondents at all the sites regarded drainage equally important for the land in order to save it from the twin menace of waterlogging and salinity. They also opined that drainage is important for saving the land from waterlogging and salinity and that drainage should be maintained and operated properly and regularly. A great majority shared the view that if properly operated and well maintained, it will be continuously beneficial for the lands in the area.  The perceptions on responsibility for operations and maintenance of the drainage system, only with the willingness of the respondents towards paying for the outlays, are presented in Table 8.2.A majority of the sampled water users were of the view that operations and maintenance of the drainage system is the responsibility of the government. Nevertheless, one-third of the respondents at Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor, as well as one-fourth of those at Khadwari, believed that it was either the responsibility of the farmersthemselves or a joint responsibility of thd government and the users.Roughly three out of four respondents were willing to provide services / money for operations and maintenance of the drainage system. The highest level of willingness wasshown by the respondents from Khadwari Minor (89%), followed by those of Heran Distributary (83%), those of Bareji Distributary (79%), and lowest from those of Dhoro Naro Minor (73%). Furthermore, they were also willing to maintain the drainage system through their organizations. The level of willingness oscillated between 09 per cent at Heran Distributary to 67 per cent at its Khadwari Minor.In this section, ownership of farm resources, specifically machinery and livestock, area planted and major crops reaped and income composition of the respondents is discussed.Section 9.1 entails the details of farm machinery and 9.2 contains the details of livestock held by the respondents. In Section 9.3, the major crops planted and reaped are discussed. Section 9.4 is reserved for income composition of the respondents.The main elements of machinery that were studied are mechanical equipment, such as tractors, threshers, seed drills, rotavators and reapers. The information is presented in Table 9.1.At the Bareji Distributary, only 5 respondents owned a tractor and/ or thresher. This forms 3 per cent of the total water users surveyed.At the Dhoro Naro Minor, 18 respondents were in possession of machinery, 4.2 per cent of the respondents had a tractor. 3 per cent had a thresher, around 2 per cent owned a seed drill, and 1 per cent had a rotavator. Only one person owned a reaper.At Heran Distributary, 20 persons had machinery, but nobody had a seed drill. At Khadwari Minor of this distributary. 5 persons owned tractors and no other machinery was owned by any of the respondents.Among the three pilot sites, respondents from Heran Distributary and its Khadwari Minor had the maximum concentration of tractors and threshers (16 and 7, respectively). Water users of Dhoro Naro Minor at Nawabshah enjoyed a monopoly in possessing seed drills (3 only) and had more rotavators. The livestock in the area comprises of bulls, cows. buffaloes, camel. sheep, goats, donkeys, horses and poultry (Table 9.2).A maximum number of bulls was found with the respondents of Dhoro Naro Minor (309) followed by those of Heran Distributary (268) and Bareji Distributary (187). The minimum number of bulls was found with the water users of Khadwari Minor.Over one 100 cows were found with the respondents of Bareji, Dhoro Naro and Heran distributaries, with the maximum at Bareji Distributary.Almost an equal number of respondents cultivated cotton at Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor, but in terms of area sown, the area at Dhoro Naro minor was more than double than that of the Bareji Distributary (Table 9.3). More planted area was destroyed at Dhoro Naro, too. The seed rate used was also high at all sites except for Bareji.where the average use of seed was near the recommended level. More expenditures were incurred per acre of crop at Bareji and resultantly, they harvested more cotton per acre that was almost double than that of Dhoro Naro Minor. It appears that the farm productivity for cotton is more or less directly related to expenditures incurred per acre of the crop at the pilot sites. A maximum number of water users had sown wheat at Heran Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor compared to other sites, and the area planted was also more. More area was destroyed at Bareji Distributary. The quantity of seed used per acre was highest at Bareji Distributary. Expenditures incurred per acre was highest at Khadwari Minor, but the yield was the lowest. In this case, the yield seems inversely responding to the total expenditures incurred per acre, but there are undoubtedly reasons that were not discovered during this socio-economic baseline survey.Area  More respondents at Heran Distributary had cultivated sugarcane and planted more acreage compared to the other pilot sites. At Bareji. more area was destroyed but this distributary also lead the figure for seed rate used and total expenditures incurred per acre of crop. The yield was also higher at Bareji Distributary compared to other pilot sites. In this section, the yields of major crops are compared with respect to location of the farm along the watercourse reaches for the different pilot sites.The per acre yield of cotton was found generally higher at the tail farms compared to head and middle areas: the differences were, nevertheless, very small. Among various pilot sites, the average yield at,all of the three locations was higher at the head, middle and tail of Bareji Distributary compared with those of other pilot sites. The cotton yields with respect to farm location are presented in Table 9.6. In case of the sugarcane crop, the average yield was more or less comparatively higher at the head farms compared to tail farms, except for Heran Distributary (Table 9.7). This may partly be attributed to relatively more availability of water at the head reaches of watercourses as the losses are comparatively less. In terms of productivity, the respondents at Bareji and Heran distributaries were more productive compared with both of the minors and the respondents on the Khadwari Minor were the mosl inefficient ones. This section entails the income of the respondents from different sources and for different sites. Since the water users generally have a tendency to under-report overall income, they were enquired about income for five different enterprises. These include income from crops, livestock, labour, remittances and other sources. It is important to point out that several respondents did not disclose their income and were treated as missing cases and were excluded from the analysis. In (he tables below, average income from different sources is presented for each of the pilot sites separately. -Average income from crops, livestock. labour, remittances and other sources stood around 43 thousand, 11 thousand, 24 thousand, 51 thousand, and 20 thousand rupees, respectively (Table 9.9). The average total income stood at 50 thousand rupees per annum. The value of standard deviations is very high for all categories of income, indicating that there had been wide variations in income levels reported by different respondents. Total income varied between rupees 4 to 600 thousand rupees per annum between the poorest and the richest respondents. Average income from crops, livestock, labour, remittance and other sources stood around 40 thousand, 9 thousand, 15 thousand, 33 thousand, and 35 thousand rupees. respectively (Table 9.10). The average total income stood at 51 thousand per annum. The value of standard deviations is very high for all categories of income, except for income from remittances, indicating that there had been wide variations in income levels of different respondents for categories other than remittances. Total income varied between rupees 3.9 to 760 thousand rupees per annum between the poorest and the richest respondents. The average income, as reported by the respondents at Heran Distributary, varied between 32 thousand, 13 thousand, 21 thousand, 29 thousand and 37 thousand from crops, livestock, labour, remittances and other sources, respectively (Table 9.1 1 ). The average total income stood at 48 thousand per annum and ranged between 2.5 to 350 thousand rupees per annum. The value of the standard deviations suggest that none of the income categories was consistent. This is also suggested by the wide ranges between the lowest and highest income groups in each category.The aggregate average income of the respondents at Khadwari Minor ranged between rupees 5 to 95 thousand and comprised of an average of 16 thousand, 11 thousand, 5 thousand, 36 thousand and 26 thousand rupees of income from crops, livestock, labour, remittances and other sources, respectively (Table 9.12). Except for the income from labour, no other category was consistent as the standard deviations are very high.Tail Average Table 9.12. Income of Respondents of Khadwari Minor (Sanghar) from Different Sources (in Rupees).There are considerable income differences among head, middle .and tail farmers. The average income realized per acre from crop enterprise was almost double for the case of the head farmers of Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor and it was even four times in the case of Khadwari Minor. At Heran Distributary, however, the average per acre income was slightly higher at the tail farms than either the head and middle locations. Average per acre income from crops was highest at Bareji (Rs 7700) and was almost 2 to 3 times of that at other sites. It was lowest at the Khadwari Minor (Table 9.13). The average incomes of the respondents from different sources are compared in Table 9.13. It is evident that the water users of Bareji Distributary had the highest average income from crops, labour and remittances compared with the other sites. The respondents from Heran Distributary had higher livestock income and income from other sources. The respondents from Khadwari Minor had the lowest income levels comparatively in all of the categories.The total income (Table 9.14) reported by the water users of Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor is higher as compared with others, followed by the respondents from Heran Distributary. The average total income at Khadwari Minor is the lowest and is almost half of the average income realized at the other sites. The perceptions of the respondents were also obtained on the factors that are relatively more important for increasing per acre yield for various crops. The respondents were asked to rank three most important factors in order of priority. In the following sections, the results are presented for each pilot site.At Bareji Distributary, the respondents ranked increased canal water supply as the most important factor (Table 9.15). Approximately 39 per cent of the respondents ranked it first or second priority for increasing crop yields. Another 5 per cent of the respondents regarded it as the third most important factor for increasing crop productivity. Timely availability of chemical fertilizers was ranked by almost half of the respondents as priority number 1,2 followed by priority for 38 percent of the respondents. According to 12 per cent of the respondents, it was ,the third most important factor contributing towards increased crop yields.Better extension was also regarded as one of the most important factors by almost onethird of the respondents. A majority of the respondents from Dhoro Naro Minor regarded more canal supplies as the single most important factor for raising crop yields. Another 7 per cent regarded it second or third priority. Another 21 per cent of the water users thought that ensured canal water supplies were the most important factor (Table 9.16).To almost 44 per cent of the respondents, availability of good quality seed was regarded as the second most important factor to raise agricultural productivity. Apart from these factors, timely availability of chemical fertilizers, availability of quality pesticides and machinery on credit were also regarded important. At Heran Distributary, timely availability of chemical fertilizers was the most important factor for raising agricultural productivity followed by availability of good quality seed, the more and ensured canal water supplies (Table 9.17). The factors such as improved water management practices, better extension services, credit availability and availability of good quality pesticides were regarded relatively less important. This may be ascribed to the fact that the water users are comprised of owner cultivators, who relatively have more cultivated area. They might have been able to meet their requirements. At Khadwari Minor, the most important factor to raise yields was regarded to be more canal water supply (Table 9.18). Nobody ranked this priority 2 or 3, indicating a high demand for additional supplies. Timely availability of chemical fertilizers and availability of good quality seeds, along with availability of agricultural machinery at credit, were regarded the other most important factors. The respondents believed that better extension services will not do any good. Similarly, no scope for improved water management practices was perceived. They accorded no priority to reliability of the canal supplies. This indicates that perhaps they were not adequately aware of the question as adequacy and reliability are the problems that have been identified by the respondents as the major problems. Each of the three pilot sites was of intermediate size, having 20 to 30 watercourses and a command area of about 5,500 hectares, with a manageable number of people.The socio-economic baseline survey was designed as a starting point for the action research program at the three pilot sites. The results of the survey can help in designing the action research program with a better understanding of the project area, its problems and possible constraints, and. can also provide some verifiable indicators that can be monitored and tested during the implementation and after completion of the pilot projects.A purposive sample was chosen that would consider all necessary aspects of the pilot area. Afler discussions among the staff, it was decided that a two-stage stratified systematic random sample would be designed to identify the target group that would be interviewed on a recall basis on a well designed and pre-tested structured interview schedule. The Social Organization Field Teams at the three pilot sites were to act as enumerators.In total, 9 watercourses from each distributary/ minor were selected in such a way that there was an equal representation of the head, middle and tail reaches. Besides, one watercourse from each of the three reaches of Khadwari Minor was selected because it is almost an additional irrigation sub-system served by the Heran Distributary. Thus, the total sample size comprised of 30 watercourses with 50% coverage of the water users on each watercourse, yielding a total sample size of 530 water users.Several problems were faced during the actual conduct of the survey. Non-availability of the respondents at the time of visit of the field staff was one of the major problems.The solution was sought by paying two to three visits at the site for interviewing the respondent. Yet, Four of the respondents could not be traced and interviewed till the end of the survey, which were discarded from inclusion in the survey. Similarly, engagement of water users in cultivation of the cotton crop during that time was another problem. This problem was resolved by paying visits in the evening to the water users who were unavailable during the day time.Another problem encountered was due to the cultural set-up of the pilot area. A number of absentee landlords and other landowners, who were not the water users, objected to having their tenants interviewed. Some of the tenants could not respond to questions on crop yields as the production was taken away by the landlord and was weighed by him. Such tenants were informed by their landlord about their own shares only. Being an interview on a recall basis, the responses to some questions were difficult to remember for the water users. They only responded in hunches and crude estimates to such questions. The duration of the interview was recorded as being almost two hours initially, which was boring for the water users. Sometimes, the water users had the tendency to respond indirectly with a story as a pre-text. Later, however, the enumerators gained experience and the interview duration was reduced.The questionnaire was pretested and the teams were trained. The survey was launched during March 1996 to June 1996. The reference period were Rabi 1994-95 and Kharif 1995.The average age of respondents stood around 40 years in all of the pilot sites. The composition of various age groups revealed that a maximum of the water users were between 31 to 60 years of age.The experience in irrigated agriculture for the water users ranged between 20 to 30 years on average. This indicates that the average age at the time of entry into the occupation stands at 15 to 20 years.Most of the respondents on all the pilot sites were married. In the socio-cultural context of rural Sindh, a male cannot stay unmarried for long afler adolescence.The tendency to become a farmer seems highly dependant upon the father's occupation. Most of the farmers were farmer's sons. Only about one out of every 10 respondents was an offspring of a non-farmer.A majority of the respondents at the three pilot sites were illiterate, Khadwari being an exception. The average number of school going children is also very low, indicating future illiteracy levels will not decline significantly.The average family size ranged between 8 to 13 in the pilot area. A majority of the respondents at Bareji Distributary were non-muslims, while at other pilot sites, the majority of them were muslims.The mean number of full-time family workers engaged in farming ranged between 2 to 4, while there were 1 to 2 additional part-time workers from the family members engaged in farming.A majority of the respondents were tenants at Bareji. Dhoro Naro and Heran sites, whereas a majority of the respondents at Khadwari Minor were owner Operators.Average operated area of the respondents varied between 7 to 20 acres at different sites, out of which they owned 5 to 15 acres and the rest of the area had been leased/ rented in. Both the average area operated and owned were higher at Khadwari Minor, comparatively because of a higher tendency of self cultivation by the owner operators.Canal water is the only irrigation source at the pilot sites. The conjunctive use of canal and tubewell is very low due to unfit groundwater. Most of the respondents from Sanghar and Nawabshah were of the view that the water availability was not sufficient, while almost half of the respondents at Bareji Distributary were found satisfied with present sources of irrigation for the crop water requirements.According to a majority of the respondents at all sites, the canal water was sufficient for rabi crops but was insufficient for kharif crops. Most of the respondents from Khadwari Minor, nonetheless, reported that it was insufficient during both of these seasons.To a majority of respondents at Bareji and Dhoro Naro, they were satisfied with the water distribution at the watercourse, whereas a majority of the respondents at Heran and its Khadwari Minor had mixed feelings about this. Those who were not fully satisfied with water distribution opined that both the government and a farmer's organization can improve this situation by a joint effort.The basin method of irrigating the fields was popular among the majority at Heran Distributary, Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors, while a combination of basin and furrow methods was popular at Bareji Distributary. Wild flooding was not being practiced, probably because of levelling problems in the field and consequent expected losses of water.Although a majority of the water users had officially fixed water turns, at Bareji the respondents expressed that it was not being followed, most probably because of a high concentration of tenants and servants in farming and because the decision to distribute water is not under their jurisdiction. The water distribution in such cases is undertaken by the zamindar. himself, or his kamdar.The average time allocated per acre for canal water varied between 15 to 21 minutes, while the water users reported that the actual time needed to irrigate an acre was 4 to 8 times higher. This means that each acre receives water on average after at least four weeks.Regarding the maintenance of the irrigation system, the respondents had mixed feelings.The majority of the respondents from Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors were not satisfied with the present maintenance condition of the system. Slightly less than half of the water users of the Bareji Distributary farmers were satisfied to a large extent and the majority of the Heran Distributary were satisfied to some extent with the maintenance of the irrigation system.Their perceptions regarding the role of proper irrigation management on crop yields were that due to proper management of irrigation at the field, the yields of crops would increase.Most of the respondents also claimed that they were aware of the proper requirement of irrigation water for different crops. The proportion of people who were unaware was almost negligible.An overwhelming majority of the respondents regarded water distribution on the watercourse level as equitable. At the Khadwari Minor, however, one-third of the respondents regarded water distribution as inequitable.The respondents had mixed feelings regarding equity among different watercourses served by the distributary. At Bareji, one-fiflh of the respondents believed that there was no equity, while more than two-fifths believed that irrigation water was equitably distributed among different watercourses. Almost one-third of the respondents were those who perhaps were unsure, or did not want to respond.Over three-fourths of the respondents at Dhoro Naro and more than half at Khadwari minors did not regard water distribution within the distributary as equitable and conversely 77 per cent of the respondents at the Heran Distributary viewed water distribution among different watercourses of the distributary to be equitable, Almost half of the respondents at Heran Distributary were of the view that the water was equitably distributed among various distributaries/ minors, and conversely, a majority of the respondents from its Khadwari minor opined that it was not. Almost three-fourths of the respondents from Dhoro Naro Minor also shared views similar to the majority of respondents from Khadwari Minor. At Bareji Distributary, a majority of the respondents did not know about water distribution among distributaries.In general, the respondents saw an increasing equity in water distribution as their evaluation shifted from the branch canal through the distributaryhninor to the watercourse. Many did not know much about the situation within the branch canal (between the distributaries), but generally acknowledged the inequity within the distributary (between the watercourses).During kharif, more water users missed their turns. The proportion of such water users varied between 71 per cent at Heran Distributary to 90 per cent at Dhoro Naro Minor. Similarly, during rabi, the proportion of those water users who missed their turn ranged between 58 per cent at Dhoro Naro Minor to 91 per cent at Bareji. Thus, the conclusion can be made that form majority of the farmers, water availability is unreliable. The incidents of water stealing are only far and few between.A majority of the farmers at Bareji Distributary exchanged their water turns, whereas in the other sites, the farmers did not engage in any exchange. A large majority of the respondents neither purchased nor sold water turns during either of the seasons.Similarly, the practice of stealing water from the watercourse during somebody else's water turn was rare.A majority of the water users at Heran Distributary knew that a WUA was formed at their watercourse. In all other sites, the water users believed that there was no WUA at their watercourse. This sounds surprising, but is justified as the number of WUAs at Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor are very less. All of those who responded that there was no WUA on their watercourse were not the members of the WUA. The highest proportion of WUA member respondents was at Heran Distributary (21 %). Others might have not been involved due to tenancy and size of cultivated area considerations. Only a small proportion of the respondents were aware of a WUA on other watercourses of the village or outside the village.The level of collective action among the water users is quite high at all of the three pilot sites, particularly as reflected in their contribution towards the maintenance of watercourses; almost all of them participated in maintenance of the watercourse. The majority of the respondents at Bareji and Heran distributaries as well as Khadwari Minor, and about half of the respondents at Dhoro Naro Minor, were involved in the maintenance of the distributary1 minor as well. The involvement of the respondents in Collective Action and Institutional Development collective solutions of the disputes related to land and water ranged between one-fifth at Khadwari Minor to over half at Dhoro Naro Minor. Since water and land disputes are of different kinds and nature,'some can be solved within the community and many others cannot, so the involvement was low compared to maintenance of the watercourse and distributary.Maintenance and construction of the village mosque is another collective activity that was performed by the water users at all of the three pilot sites. The degree of participation ranged between 31 per cent at Bareji Distributary to 97 per cent at Heran Distributary. Participation in collective maintenance of the village school was also noticeable. This was, nevertheless. lowest at Dhoro Naro, where only around 6 per cent of the respondents participated. At Heran Distributary, four respondents out of every five were involved in collective maintenance of the village school. The activities that were not. but could be undertaken by the respondents collectively were collective purchase of agricultural inputs and disposal of the marketing surplus of the produce realized at their farms.An overwhelming majority of the respondents were aware of some organization catering to development works in their area. This awareness was lowest at the Dhoro Naro Minor. For the rest of the three distributaries/ minors, the awareness was as high as around 97 per cent.Many of the respondents, themselves, were involved in that organization as initiating members of the organization. The proportion of such respondents ranged between roughly 27 per cent at Bareji to 67 per cent at Khadwari.An overwhelming majority of the respondents showed their willingness towards working for development with people. The proportion of such respondents was higher than 92 per cent of the total at all the pilot sites.A vast majority showed their willingness and readiness to contribute labour and affordable money for such an organization. The level of willingness varied between 85 per cent at Dhoro Naro Minor to 100 per cent at Khadwari Minor.A majority of the respondents wanted to form a water users association. Low response at Heran Distributary can be attributed to the fact that some of them are already members, and for the rest of them, it is not applicable. On the contrary, there are very fewer numbers of already established WUAs at Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor, who are more interested to form a WUA.Though many of the respondents did not have a formal exposure to an organized effort for solution of common problems, but they have knowledge and are willing to form, federate and sustain water users organization as they showed a willingness to even contribute funds for financial liabilities of the organization.An overwhelming majority of the respondents believed that land levelling is a crucial factor for optimizing the utilization of water. Nine out of ten respondents were unaware of precision land levelling. Over 10 per cent of the respondents from Dhoro Naro Minor were familiar with precision land levelling, which was the highest proportion among all of the pilot sites.In general, the quality of groundwater was regarded not suitable for irrigation purposes.A majority of respondents claimed that they had knowledge about the depth to water table in their respective areas. The proportion of the respondents who responded positively ranged between almost 90 per cent in Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors to 98 per cent at Heran Distributary.The average farm area affected by waterlogging and salinity varied between almost 2.5 acres (19 and 12 % of the mean area operated, respectively) at Dhoro Naro and Khadwari minors to over 4 acres (52 and 24 per cent of the mean area operated, respectively) at Bareji and Heran distributaries. There are high variations among various responses regarding area affected within each distributary/ minor.To most of the respondents, the ground water table has dropped during the last two years. The extent of reported water table drop varied between around one foot at Bareji Distributary to about four feet at Dhoro Naro Minor. The reported figures, nevertheless. varied among different respondents of the same distributary to a great extent as the respective standard deviations are quite high. The responses from Khadwari Minor, however, about reported water depth can be regarded quite consistent as the standard deviations are less than half of the mean.At the Bareji Distributary in Mirpurkhas, a majority of the respondents (66%) used grass to control waterlogging and salinity. Cultivation of rice for leaching salts is another common practice adopted by one-quarter of the respondents. Use of gypsum and plantation of salt resistant trees are, however, not yet so popular. At the Dhoro Naro Minor in Nawabshah. none of the salinity control measures is frequently practiced; only 16 per cent of the respondents cultivated grass to control salinity. Among the respondents from Heran Distributary, the cultivation of grass, rice and planting trees are somewhat popular as 42 per cent, 32 per cent, and 27 per cent of the water users were using these measures, respectively. At Khadwari Minor of the Heran Distributary, almost every fifth respondent planted trees and/ or cultivated rice for lowering the water table and minimizing salinity, while every ninth respondent was reported using gypsum for reclaiming the land.Almost an equal number of respondents cultivated cotton at Bareji and Dhoro Naro. but in terms of area sown, the area at Dhoro Naro was more than double than that of Bareji. More planted area was destroyed at Dhoro Naro, too. The seed rate used was also high at all sites except for Bareji, where the average use of seed was near the recommended level, More expenditures were incurred per acre of crop at Bareji and, resultantly. they harvested more cotton per acre that was almost double than that of Dhoro Naro Minor. It appears that the farm productivity for cotton is more or less directly related to expenditure incurred per acre of crop.A maximum number of water users had sown wheat at Heran Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor compared to other sites and the area planted was also more. More area was destroyed at Bareji Distributary. The quantity of seed used per acre was highest at Bareji Distributary. Expenditures incurred per acre was highest at Khadwari Minor, but the yield was lowest. In this case, the yield seems inversely responding to the total expenditure incurred per acre.More number of respondents at Heran Distributary had cultivated sugarcane and planted more acreage compared to other sites. At Bareji, more area was destroyed, which also led the Figure for seed rate used and total expenditures incurred per acre of crop. The yield was also higher at Bareji Distributary compared to other pilot sites.The average incomes of the respondents from different sources show that the water users of Bareji Distributary had the highest average income from crops, labour and remittances compared with the other pilot sites. The respondents from Heran Distributary had higher livestock income and income from other sources. The respondents from Khadwari Minor had the lowest income levels comparatively in all of the categories.The total income reported by the water users of Bareji Distributary and Dhoro Naro Minor is higher compared to others followed by the respondents from Heran Distributary. The average total income at Khadwari Minor is the lowest and is almost half of the average income realized at other sites. 5.7. Public tubewell 3.Private tubewell 4.Canal + private tubewell 5.To what extent the overall water you get to fulfills you irrigation requirement?Not at all 2.To some extent 3.To large extent 4.Any other (Sp)12.If answer is i or ii, then ask how do you overcome this crop water deficiency? To what extent are you satisfied with the present distribution of water at watercourse level?1. Not all 2.To some extent 3.To large extentIf not at all, who can improve water distribution?1. Government agency 2.Farmers organization 3. Not at all 2.To some extent 3.To 3.5.7 . 8 .10.1 1 . Fit for irrigation 2.Marginally fit for irrigation 3.Unfit for irrigation 4.    ","tokenCount":"15315"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"15af72a117b1372c1cdddedc85768441","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://repository.cimmyt.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6f7dc7d2-744c-471d-97d0-23e41163bf9f/content","id":"-490731330"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"54397c50-0ead-44b5-a162-78fb792fac1c","pagecount":"52","content":"Wheat in the rainfed areas of Pakistan is grown on one fifth of the wheat acreage but its contribution to national production is only ten percent. Wheat production in these areas plays a significant role in the overall supply and demand situation of Pakistan. Self-sufficiency in wheat production on sustainable basis can only be achieved by evolving appropriate modem technologies for these neglected areas.This study deals with the wheat varietal adoption, the most important component of improved technological package for wheat production. The rainfed Pothwar, especially drier part is well behind in adoption of new wheat cultivars as compared to irrigated areas. Official statistics show that farmers of rainfed areas only began adopting new varieties beginning a decade after irrigated farmers and that a large area is still planted to old desi varieties. Farmers of this tract operate complex farming systems to meet their subsistence and hence have different needs for in choice of any neW technology including new varieties.I am pleased that present study highlighted some important factors affecting adoption of semi-dwarf wheat varieties. It is hoped that results presented in this manuscript will help in developing appropriate varieties for these areas. I appreciate the efforts made by social scientists of NARC and CIMMYT to compile this study. Table 1.Table 2.Wheat varieties released for rainfed areas of Pakistan Sample distribution by rainfall zone and wheat area, 1989-90   5: Table 6.Table 7.Table 8.Table 9.Table 11.Table 12.Table 13.Table 14.Table 15.  Table 17.Table 18.Sources of seed for current crop for old varieties by rainfall zone, 1989-90 Initial sources of seed for new varieties by rainfall zone, 1989-90 ..Table 19. Sources of funds for new seed, 1989-90 Table 20.Table 21.Table 22.Table 23.Table 24.Table 25.Table 26.Table 27.Table 28.Table 29.Table 30.    . Figure 4.       . Figure 4.      oThe analysis of experimental data for the dry zone indicated that yields of different varieties were influenced strongly by moisture availability in five years of observations. The results showed that old tall varieties, compared to semi-dwarf varieties, were equally good or even better in yield in moisture stress .years. o Estimates of yield advantage indicated that the improved variety gave 13 percent increase in grain yield and no significant effect on straw yield. On average, local varieties fetch a 15 to 20 percent price premium for grain quality compared to semi-dwarf varieties. Similarly, straw is sold for almost one rupee/kg in drought years.oThe majority of the farmers in the study area were owner operator. They mostly rented tractors for land preparation and very few dependened only on bullock power. In the low rainfall zone more than one half of the farmers had sandy soils which compound the problem of moisture stress. As in other parts of the Punjab, few farmers had contact with extension department and most had low levels of education.oOverall, in the study area, 42 percent of the wheat area was under new semi-dwarf varieties especially Pak-81. In the low rainfall areas only one-fifth of the farmers had adopted this category of varieties. Old semi-dwarf varieties were planted on more than 10 percent of the area. More than one-fifth of the high rainfall farmers had planted these types of varieties (mostly Lyallpur-73). The proportion of wheat area to very old tall varieties was very high in the low rainfall zone.oEstimates of the yield advantage of grain and bhusa under farmers conditions indicated that the improved variety gave an estimated 13 percent increase in grain yield (significant at the 20% level). The other factors contributing to grain yields were lepara land type, sole cropping (compared to intercropping with mustard), phosphorous use, farm yard manure application and owner tenancy. The farmers of low rainfall zone stated that they planted old tall varieties due to their drought tolerance characteristics. Also these varieties were preferred for home consumption. The most important reason for planting both old tall and new semi-dwarf varieties was to have one variety for grain and one variety for bhusa. Many farmers also planted both types of varieties for yield comparisons.oAll the respondents of the sample area who planted new semi-dwarf varieties strongly agreed that these yielded more. Farmers of both the rainfall zones also believed that old tall varieties yielded more and better straw for their livestock and made good chapatis.oAs in other parts of the country, other farmers were major source of information for agricultural technologies. The majority of the farmers used their own seed for semidwarf and old tall varieties. However, seed depot and other farmers were major sources of seed for initial adoption of improved varieties.o Multivariate analysis of factors affecting adoption of semi-dwarf varieties indicated that agro-climatic environments (soil and rainfall distribution) were the most influential factors in adoption of these varieties. Socio-economic variables (education, farm size) and information sources (demonstration plot contact and seed depot visit) were the other factors which significantly influence adoption of these varieties, especially recent adoption behaviour in the dry zone.o Considering these factors special breeding efforts for evolving appropriate cultivars for marginal areas and more research on soil and moisture conservation techniques is needed to speed adoption of new varieties in the marginal rainfed areas of the Punjab.Wheat is the most important food crop of the resource poor farmers of the rainfed Punjab. Wheat production in these areas also plays a significant role in the overall supply and demand situation of Pakistan. Self-sufficiency in wheat production is a major component of the country's agricultural policy.The adoption of new technologies, especially modem varieties, are crucial in increasing wheat productivity. Many farm-level studies have been conducted in different agro-ecological zones of Pakistan to estimate adoption of different technological components for wheat (Heisey, 1990;Azeem et al., 1989;Ahmad et al., 1990;Ahmad et al., 1989). This information is widely used by wheat scientists and policy makers. However, little information is available for the rainfed zone of the Punjab.The rainfed zone, commonly known as the Pothwar Plateau covers one fifth of the Punjabs' cropped area.• This tract caD be divided into three sub-zones based on rainfall --the high rainfall zone (over 750 mm of annual rainfall), 'medium rainfall zone (500 to 750 mm) and low rainfall zone (less than 500 mm). Farmers in each rainfall zone manage their cropping pattern differently. During an informal survey of the area it was found that farmers of the low rainfall zone still plant old tall wheat cultivars. Previous studies (Hobbs et al., 1986) indicated that the best irrigated semi-dwarf varieties such as Pak-81 , are also the best yielding under the better rainfed conditions and in fact have been widely adopted in the high and medium rainfall zones. However, the adoption of HYVs is more uneven under low rainfall areas. Hobbs et al. (1991) pointed that Desi (local) varieties have a longer coleoptile to allow deeper seeding into residual moisture under low rainfall conditions. Wheat research in Pakistan was started in the early 20th Century. Since then (before and after partition of India) wheat breeders have worked hard to develop suitable wheat varieties for different wheat growing areas of Pakistan. Through their efforts, the release of high yielding varieties has led to rapid increases in productivity in irrigated areas beginning in 1967 (CIMMYT, 1989)..To date about 70 wheat varieties have been released in Pakistan by different wheat research establishments. Out of these only seven varieties were specifically released for rainfed areas and another 14 were recommended for both rainfed and irrigated areas (Table 1). All the rest of the cultivars were released exclusively for irrigated areas of Pakistan. In this report wheat varieties are divided into three main groups: new semi-dwarfs released since 1981 (mostly Pak-81); old semi-dwarfs (Lyallpur-73, Mexi-Pak, Barani-70 etc.) and old tall (C-591, awnless (Koni), other older tall varieties and mixtures of varieties). The varieties released only for rainfed areas were never widely adopted by farmers. However, two varieties (Lyallpur-73 and Pak-81) released for both irrigated and rainfed condition have been widely accepted in the Barani tract. * Recommended for both rainfed and irrigated areas.Official statistics show that farmers of rainfed areas adopted HYVs beginning a decade after irrigated farmers (Figure 1). The purpose of this report is to understand the patterns of varietal diffusion in rainfed areas and especially the slow diffusion of new varieties to the drier areas. This pattern of diffusion has also been observed in other marginal areas (e. g. West Asia and North Africa (Belaid and Morris, 1991) and in India (Byerlee, 1991», but to date few studies have attempted to analyse the needs of farmers in marginal areas for specific varietal  ----,------.-------,-,.---.-----.-------.----.-------.-----.------.---,------,,--- characteristics. These characteristics might include drought stress, straw quality and quantity, or grain type. Alternatively, appropriate varieties may be available but inadequate extension, seed supply and markets may slow their adoption. Such information is needed in order to establish research priorities for wheat varieties and appropriate policies to increase productivity in the marginal areas.The report has following specific objectives: 1.To examine the diffusion pattern of wheat varieties in rainfed areas of the Pothwar Plateau.To study farmers' rationale for planting of traditional and improved cultivars with special focus on marginal environments.To provide feedback to wheat breeders to develop appropriate varieties for these areas.The research for this study covers all three rainfall zones of the Pothwar Plateau. Considering the area under cultivation the target sampling by zone was 50, 25 and 25 percent from low, medium and high rainfall regions, respectively. In the low rainfall zone, three tehsils (Chakwal, Talagang and Pindi-Gheb) were selected and five villages from each tehsil were randomly chosen. In the medium rainfall zone, two tehsils (Fateh lang and Gujar Khan) were selected and four villages from each tehsil were randomly chosen. Similarly, from the high rainfall zone, two tehsils (Rawalpindi and lhelum) were chosen and from each tehsil four villages were randomly selected. In each zone, ten respondents were interviewed in each village to give an overall sample size of 310 for examining the wheat varietal diffusion patterns. However, after considering the position of some samp~e villages in relation to rainfall isohytes, the sample distribution was adjusted as in Table 2. Patterns of varietal use and key variables were collected for all 310 farmers. In order to obtain farmers' in-depth perceptions about varietal choices, half of the respondents were interviewed in more depth. Tables 2 and 3 also present the average wheat area by farm size and rainfall. The data support the established fact that small farmers put a higher share of their total area under wheat compared to larger farmers. Similarly, farmers of the low rainfall zone devote proportionately less area to wheat compared to farmers in the medium and high rainfall zones. In general the differences between the high and medium rainfall zones were found to be very small and unimportarlt. For this reason and given the smaller sample size in these zones, in most of this report we have combined these two zones into one zone--called the 'wet zone' (> 500 mm) as opposed to the dry or low rainfall zone « 500 mm).In addition to the farm survey, we also reviewed experimental data to estimate the grain yield advantages of new varieties under dryland conditions. The results of wheat yield varietal trials, conducted at the Adaptive Research Station, located near Chakwal in the low rainfall zone are presented in Table 4. Yields of different varieties were influenced strongly by moisture availability in five years of observation. The year 1987-88 was a drought year and almost all the varieties yielded at the same level. In this year, the farmers' most common variety (C-591, a tall variety) was equal in yield with Lyallpur-73 (an old semi-dwarf) and yielded even more than Pak-81 (a new semi-dwarf). Figure 2 shows average, minimum and maximum grain yield of these varieties.On the basis of five years' average yield data, Lyallpur-73 and Pak-81 gave 10 and 27 percent respectively, more yield than C-591. However, the good performance of old tall varieties in drier seasons indicate their suitability for these areas. In addition these on-station yields with good management practices and good soils are not representative of farmers' conditions. Indeed average trial yields were over 3 t/ha, more than three times the farmers' yields. More representative estimates of the yield advantage under farmers conditions may be obtained from field survey data. A survey was conducted in farmers' fields in the Fateh Jang area (rainfall about 500 mm) to estimate wheat grain and bhusa yields by crop cutting. At that time Lyallpur-73 (old semi-dwarf variety) was the main improved variety. In the production function (fable 5) the improved variety gave an estimated 13 percent increase in grain yield (significant at the 20% level). The other factors contributing to grain yields were lepara land type, sole cropping (compared to intercropping with mustard), phosphorous use, farm yard manure application and owner tenancy.The same model was also used to analyse wheat straw yields in the sample fields. The improved variety has no significant effect on straw yield although the coefficient has the expected negative sign.The results of experimental data and farmers' field data suggests that old semi-dwarf variety (Lyallpur-73) gave 10 to 13 percent more grain yields than old tall varieties although it  may have reduced straw yields. Similarly, the new semi-dwarf (pak-81) gave about 27 percent higher yields compared to old tall cutivars. However, on average, local tall varieties fetch a 15 to 20 percent price premium for grain quality compared to semi-dwarf varieties. Similarly, straw is sold for almost one rupee/kg in drought years. This suggests that the increase in grain yields of semi-dwarf varieties may be offset by price discount and reduced straw yields. These data suggest that an important reason for slow adoption of new varieties in dry areas is their lack of economic advantage.The characteristics of the sample wheat growers in the farm survey are listed in Table 6. The majority (71 %) of the sample in all rainfall zones were owner-operator farmers. Nearly all farmers rented in tractors for ploughing of their fields and very few depended only on bullock power. In the dry zone, more than one half of the farmers had sandy soils which compound the problem of moisture stress. As in other parts of the Punjab, few farmers had contact with the extension department and most had low levels of education. However, fanners of the wet zone had relatively more contact with demonstration plots compared to other parts of the rainfed tract. About half of the sample wheat growers were involved in off-farm work to supplement their farm income.Farmers of the rainfed Pothwar have adopted different wheat varieties according to their local agro-ecologica1 conditions. Pak-81, the widely adopted wheat variety for other parts of the country is again comparatively the most popular variety for the barani Punjab. This variety was planted on nearly two-fifths of the total wheat area (Table 7). A negligible proportion of the wheat area was devoted to other newly released wheat cultivars, (but not recommended for rainfed areas) such as Faisalabad-83 and Pirsabak-85. Farmers of the low rainfall areas are devoting much less of their area to improved varieties than those of high rainfall areas.Lyallpur-73, an old semi-dwarf variety was planted on nearly one-tenth of the wheat area. Until recently Lyallpur-73 was a very popular variety in this part of the Punjab (Supple et al., 1985), but due to shattering problems farmers have started to replace it with Pak-81. Interestingly this variety was very popular on small holdings in the high rainfall zone because it is perceived as good for home consumption. A sizeable proportion of the barani wheat area is still under very old tall wheat varieties like C-59l, local and awnless (Koni). These varieties were planted on 47 percent of the total wheat area (Table 7 and Figure 3).  The data regarding percent of farmers planting wheat varieties are presented in Table 8 and Figure 4. Overall, more than 35 percent of the farmers were planting new semi-dwarf varieties and nearly two-fifth were planting old tall varieties. In the low rainfall zone nearly 64 percent of the farmers had planted old tall varieties only. Nearly eighty percent of the sample farmers planted only one variety (Figure 5). The year of adoption of old semi-dwarf and new semi-dwarf varieties for those farmers sowing these varieties, is presented in Figures 6 and 7. In the dry zone, farmers are in the early stages of adoption of new semi-dwarf varieties as compared to farmers of wet zone. In the dry zone old semi-dwarf varieties were adopted by farmers within the last 12 years.   Farmers were asked to explain their main criterion for choice of a particular variety. In all the rainfall zones more than three-fourths of the farmers stated that they had planted new semi-dwarf varieties for higher yields. Nearly one-tenth stated that new varieties were resistant to shattering problems. The remaining farmers in this category perceived that new varieties lodge less, are good for late planting and have less contamination of weeds etc (Table 9). Farmers who still plant old tall varieties were also asked their main reasons for planting these varieties. The majority (61 %) of the farmers of the dry zone planted old varieties for their better resistance to drought. This reason was quoted by only 8 percent of the farmers in the wet zone. Farmers also preferred old varieties for good \"Chapati\" quality particularly in the wet areas where more than half of the respondents gave this reason. The other major reasons for planting old varieties were non-availability of seed of new cultivars, higher yields of straw and use for clipping for green fodder (Table 10)... Farmers in the different agro-ecological zones have different perceptions about varietal characteristics. Farmers who planted new semi-dwarf varieties were asked to compare certain important varietal characteristics like grain yields, straw yields, grain quality for chapatis, drought resistance, shattering, shrivelling and lodging between old tall, and new and old semidwarf cultivars.All the respondents of the sample who planted new semi-dwarf varieties strongly agreed that new varieties yielded more grain. Farmers of both zones also believed that old tall varieties yielded more and better quality straw for their livestock. Almost all farmers of the dry rainfall zone considered that atta (wheat flour) from old tall varieties made better quality chapatis compared to that from new semi-dwarf varieties. Also all of the dry zone farmers thought old tall varieties were more drought resistant than new semi-dwarf varieties. However, some farmers of the wet rainfall zone perceived that new semi-dwarf varieties were more drought resistant than old varieties. The experimental data presented earlier has supported farmers' views about drought resistant characteristics of old tall varieties. Generally, farmers reported that new semi-dwarf varieties shattered more than old tall varieties (Table 11). The comparison of different varietal characteristics for new semi-dwarf and old semi-dwarfs is presented in Table 12.    This group of farmers also considered that new semi-dwarfs give high grain yields compared to old semi-dwarf varieties. The majority of dry zone farmers believed that new semi-dwarfs yielded more bhusa and that old semi-dwarfs made better chapatis. Farmers of this zone considered new semi-dwarfs best for drought condition in comparison to old semi-dwarf varieties. In terms of shattering, shrivelling and lodging both varietal categories were almost the same.Fifteen percent of the overall sample farmers had planted both new semi-dwarf and old tall varieties. The most common reason given for planting both varieties was the need to have one variety for grain and one variety for straw. Many farmers also planted both new and old varieties to compare yield performance. Twenty percent of the respondents from the low rainfall zone planted old tall and new semi-dwarf varieties to adjust to field-specific soil moisture conditions. They prefer to grow new varieties in wetter conditions or in soils with better moisture-holding capacity. Interestingly, more than 10 percent of the farmers planted two varieties to stagger harvesting dates (Table 13). In this way they were able to solve the problem of labour shortages. .00During the survey farmers were asked to rank the most important agronomic factors for increasing wheat yields. The most important factor was. given a score of three and the least important was given a score of one. The mean scores of these factors for all farmers are presented in Table 14. Farmers gave high priority to application of more fertilizers. The second and third most important factors in the ranking were better land preparation and adequate moisture, respectively. Better land preparation was considered relatively more important in the wet zone and adequate mositure was more important in the dry zone. It is clear from the data that improved varieties were not given high priority in ranking in either zones. Farmers' Seed Sources and Seed ManagementNearly one-sixth of the farmers said extension services were their major information source for new varieties. However, most of the farmers learnt about new varieties from other farmers (Table 15).Table IS Farmers were also asked about seed sources for their new semi-dwarf varieties. The majority (61 %) of farmers used their own retained seed for the current year's crop. Other farmers were the major external seed sources for new varieties. Only a few farmers obtained their seed from seed depots (Table 16 and Figure 8). These results are comparable to studies from irrigated Punjab (Tetlay et al., 1987). 2.8 3.1 3.9 0.9 1.9 0.9 0.6.28 a As determined by Chi-squared test.In the case of old varieties more than three-fourths of the farmers used their own homeproduced seed. As for the case of new varieties, other farmers were the second major seed sources for seed of old varieties (Table 17). .04Analysis of initial seed sources for first adoption of improved varieties shows that seed depots and other farmers are important for diffusion of seed. Overall, more than one-fifth of farmers had obtained seed initially from seed depots (Table 18 and figure 9). The majority of farmers used their own funds to buy new seed. The other major practice was to exchange seed with other farmers. Very few farmers used credit for procurement of seed of new varieties (Table 19 ).   The quality of seed of newly adopted wheat varieties can only be maintained by adopting appropriate seed management techniques. In the rainfed Pothwar only a very few farmers were providing special management for wheat seed (fable 20). In this section multivariate analytical procedures have been used to show quantitative effects of individual variables in the process of adoption. Often bivariate analysis using crosstabulation and one-way analysis of variance may not show the true effects of individual variables (Feder, Just and Zilberman, 1985). Here we have used probit, logit and tobit models to measure qualitative responses i.e (adoption, non-adoption and partial adoption). These models are based on choice-theoretic principles. Binomial probit models estimate a qualitatative response model with a binomial dependent variable, 1 (adoption) and 0 (non adoption) which can be used to estimate of changes in probability for of adoption for a given change in an independent variable (Maddala, 1983). In the multinomiallogit model it is assumed that the distribution is logistic, instead of normal (Maddala, 1983). In this case farmers move from not planting new varieties to planting some of their area to new varieties. The tobit models may be useful to estimate not only whether an individual has adopted or not, but also the extent of adoption (Feder, Just and Zilberman, 1985). For example in this report we have used farmers' actual wheat area under new semi-dwarf and old semi-dwarf varieties as dependent variables. Because probit and tobit estimates of adoption were very similar, only tobit estimates are presented here. In the following section we have also attempted to explain the relative proportion of farm area planted to new semi-dwarf and all semi-dwarf varieties in the replacement of tall wheat cultivars.A summary of variables used in different equations are presented in Table 21. For the tobit models, variables on area under all semi-dwarf, new semi-dwarf and year of adoption of new semi-dwarf varieties are chosen. In the multinomiallogit approach, dependent variable VARTYPE, takes on the value 0 if farmers planted only old tall varieties; 1 if they planted semidwarf varieties; and 2 if they planted both semi-dwarf and old tall varieties. This model explains why some farmers sow two or more varieties or alternatively specialize in one varietal type.In rainfed areas, adoption of semi-dwarf varieties is hypothesised to be influenced by three sets of independent variables; agro-climatic, socia-economic and information sources. In the first group soil type, rainfall zone and use of deep tillage (to conserve moisture) are used to explain adoption pattern. In the second group, variables relating to farmers' socio-economic condition (e.g. farm size, education, tenancy and off-farm work) are included. For information source variables (extension contact, visit to seed depot, contact with demonstration plot and distance of the village from the main road) are considered.  In this section, results of Maximum Likelihood Estimation of tobit and logit models are presented for the whole sample in the rainfed Punjab. The results of the tobit model for area under semi-dwarf varieties showed that agro-climatic variables (rainfall and soil type) were the most important factors in adoption of this group of varieties. The negative signs of these variables indicate that farmers in the dry zone or with sandy soils are less likely to adopt semidwarf varieties. Similarly, the coefficients for information variables (demonstration plot contact and seed depot contact) were significant with positive signs (Table 22) indicating that farmers'  awareness of new varieties may be influenced by sources of information. The socio-economic variable significantly affecting farmers decision to adopt semi-dwarf varieties was farmers' fulltime participation in farming.The results for tobit estimates of adoption of new semi-dwarf varieties are presented in Table 23. Again soil and rainfall coefficients are highly significant with expected negative signs. The only difference in this model, was that farmers using deep tillage were more likely to adopt new semi-dwarf cultivars. This implies that adoption of moisture conservation techniques will speed the adoption of new varieties which can respond better to improved growing conditions.  The results of the tobit model for year of adoption of new semi-dwarfs indicates that farmers of the dry zone with sandy soils adopted the new semi-dwarf varieties later compared to wet zone farmers. In this model distance of village from the main road is also significant with the expected negative sign. Similarly, farmers who visited seed depots had adopted earlier compared to other farmers (Table 24). Data in Table 25 show the results of a multinomial logit model for farmers who plant semi-dwarf only, both tall and semi-dwarfs and tall varieties only. Farmers who planted only tall cultivars were normalized to zero and the effect of the other two groups were estimated. The results indicate that larger farmers tend to diversify in choice of varieties. Also farmers with sandy soils seek greater diversification. These results are comparable with other adoption studies in Pakistan (Husain 1991). Analysis For the Dry ZoneThe following section presents the results of the same adoption models for the dry zone only, the most neglected area of the rainfed Pothwar. This area is still in the early stages of technological adoption and hence the results are more representative of farmers' recent adoption behaviour. Tobit estimates for area under semi-dwarf varieties are presented in the Table 26. In this model, education was not significant but its sign was in the expected direction. Farm size was highly significant with a positive sign. Larger farmers have generally more access to information sources and with better socio-economic condition are in a better position to risk adopting new technologies. The same model was used to estimate farmers' likelihood of devoting their farm area to new semi-dwarf wheat varieties. Besides agro-climatic variables, adoption of new varieties was influenced by farm size and education as expected. The variable for seed depot visit was also highly significant. This may be due to the fact that relatively more farmers obtain their new wheat seed from seed depots (Table 27). Year of adoption of new semi-dwarf varieties was significantly related to farmers' education level, farm size, soil type and visit to seed depot. The variable for distance to main road was not significant but also showed some impact on year of adoption (Table 28). The results for the wet zone clearly contrast to those for the dry zone. The farmers of this zone are in a better position to adopt technological innovations due to a favoured agroclimatic environment. In this zone, socio-economic variables were more important compared to agro-climatic variables (Tables 29 and 30). The estimates for area under semi-dwarf varieties showed that variables for tenancy and off farm work are important. In this zone owner operator and full time farmers are more likely to adopt semi-dwarf varieties. Analysis of adoption of new semi-dwarf varieties in the wet zone, indicated that deep tillage was also important for adoption of this varietal group. The rainfed Pothwar of the Punjab, especially the low rainfall areas, are well behind in the process of adoption of improved wheat varieties despite the release in recent years of varieties specifically developed for these areas. Many factors may explain this lag in adoption including lack of appropriate varieties for dry areas, farmers' lack of information on new varieties or lack of access to seed. In some cases, socio-economic circumstances of farmers may also influence farmers' variety selection.This study has been undertaken to understand better farmers' decisions on wheat varietal selection in the rainfed areas. Overall we conclude that the major factor explaining lack of adoption is the agro-climatic situation--especially drought stress which is greatest in the dry zone and in areas with sandy soils. These variables consistently explain the extent and timing of adoption of semi-dwarf varieties. The limited data available suggest that yield advantage of old semi-dwarf varieties over farmers' local tall variety was quite small and may not compensate farmers for price discounts on semi-dwarf grain and a perceived loss in straw yields. Farmers also generally rated their local varieties better than old semi-dwarfs with respect to drought tolerance and chapati-making quality.The newer generation of semi-dwarfs released since 1981 seem to perform better under dryland conditions and in fact adoption of these varieties has proceeded steadily in the 1980s. Although farmers seem quite well informed about improved varieties, adoption of the new varieties is related to variables reflecting information source. This suggests that adoption could be speeded by more extension and greater access to seed. There is clearly a need for more efforts in on-farm testing of new varieties to solicit feedback from farmers on desirable characteristics in new wheat releases. These factors highlight the need for special research on evolving appropriate varieties for the dry areas. Similarly giving special attention to agro-climatic factors and village level seed distribution and its demonstration may contribute significantly in enhancement of grain production of the country.","tokenCount":"5130"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"bf30e3327164caf6e77ae0a2062d5b33","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://repository.cimmyt.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/65b675df-2f69-49d4-8e02-4a0bfc9a366b/content","id":"439918294"},"keywords":["Africa","Education","Research institutions","Educational institutions","Training centres","Higher education","Extension activities","Agricultural development","Socioeconomic environment","Educational policies","Research policies","Agricultural development","Development policies AGRIS category codes: C10 Education E10 Agricultural Economics and Policies Dewey decimal classification: 631.72"],"sieverID":"9ce8d15c-1998-417d-b534-c1a1a967f26f","pagecount":"65","content":"CIMMYT (www.cimmyt.mx or www.cimmyt.cgiar.org) is an internationally funded, nonprofit scientific research and training organization. Headquartered in Mexico, the Center works with agricultural research institutions worldwide to improve the productivity, profitability, and sustainability of maize and wheat systems for poor farmers in developing countries. It is one of 16 similar centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). The CGIAR comprises over 55 partner countries, international and regional organizations, and private foundations. It is co-sponsored by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Financial support for CIMMYT's research agenda also comes from many other sources, including foundations, development banks, and public and private agencies.CIMMYT supports Future Harvest, a public awareness campaign that builds understanding about the importance of agricultural issues and international agricultural research. Future Harvest links respected research institutions, influential public figures, and leading agricultural scientists to underscore the wider social benefits of improved agriculture-peace, prosperity, environmental renewal, health, and the alleviation of human suffering (www.futureharvest.org).development. It was assumed that industry could be developed in isolation from agriculture and that rapid industrialization would enable new nations to leapfrog over the agrarian stage and catch up with industrial nations by the year 2000. Industrialization, however, has failed to materialize and the continent is mired in an agrarian stage of development with two-thirds of its people deriving their livelihood from agriculture and the rural economy.Africa's empty harvest of food crops and the loss of markets for some of its traditional export crops represent a tragedy in a land of agricultural potential and a continent of hard-working people with a thirst for education, healthy babies, and a better life. Many countries in Africa have enormous physical potential to produce food and traditional agricultural exports for themselves, neighboring countries, and international markets. But Africa's vast agricultural potential is not being tapped. Tapping this potential is a major challenge for the African scientific community and the CGIAR system. 1 Unfortunately, the recent report by the expert panel on the future of the CGIAR does not shed much light on Africa's agrarian crisis (CGIAR 1998). The report, prepared under the leadership of Maurice Strong, devotes one of its 29 recommendations to the African crisis. However, the Africa recommendation consists of eight banal \"assignments\" to CGIAR centers without either identifying which center activities should be shelved in order to finance an expanded program in Africa or, alternatively, citing a source of additional financial resources for the proposed assignments. 2  Africa is also facing human capital degradation and institutional decay arising from the AIDS pandemic, the decline in the quality of its universities, and the on-going brain drain (African Development Bank 1998). Currently, most of the 48 nations in sub-Saharan Africa do not possess the political commitment and the minimum threshold of scientific capacity to benefit from, and contribute to, the information and biotechnology revolutions that are now being thrust upon Africa (Maredia and Erbisch 1998).Although there is much palaver in donor circles about capacity building in Africa, many key players such as the CGIAR, NGOs, and US and European universities have neither the mandate or the resources to make an effective and sustainable contribution to resolving Africa's human capital degradation. This problem needs to be addressed first and foremost by Africans during the next 25 to 50 years. The degradation of human capital in agriculture has important implications for Africa's future development prospects, as well as for donors, international organizations, and universities in industrial countries.Yet increased donor aid is not the answer to Africa's empty harvest or to its human capital degradation. Over the past decade, Africa has received US$ 64 billion of donor assistance to carry out policy reforms, but the results have been disappointing (Collier 1997). A World Bank study, Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why (1998), recently concluded that the success of policy reforms is crucially dependent upon \"a good institutional environment.\" Before proceeding, it is important to define institutions and organizations. Economic historian Douglass North, who has long argued that a distinction must be made between institutions and organizations (North 1990), defines institutions as the rules (the legal system, financial regulations, and property rights) that nurture, protect, and govern the operation of a market economy. By contrast, organizations refer to universities, extension services, and cooperatives that carry out specific missions in society.In his 1993 Nobel lecture in Stockholm, North argued that the field of development economics was stalled because neoclassical economists assumed away the importance of institutions and time (North 1998).He contends that the major challenge facing poor nations in Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe is to develop the consistent and transparent institutions that are essential for the effective performance of organizations. The practical implication of North's argument is that organizations such as universities and extension systems can expand and flourish with the inflow of donor support, but they are likely to be unsustainable in countries that do not have political leaders and farm organizations working together to create and sustain \"a good institutional environment.\"The nagging problem, however, is that the present knowledge base on how to create a \"good institutional environment\" in African nations is woefully inadequate. Likewise, the knowledge base on how to craft effective demand-driven organizations to help poor African farmers, traders, and the owners of micro-enterprises is seriously lacking. In the balance of this paper, I shall focus on how to strengthen the core organizations for a modern agriculture: national agricultural research systems, national extension services, and universities.Since two-thirds of the people in Africa derive their livelihood from agriculture, it follows that effective agricultural institutions are a sine qua non for getting agriculture moving in Africa. But it is difficult to secure financial support for designing and testing new institutional models because of the \"naive institutional optimism\" that pervades many donor agencies. This false optimism assumes that African nations can import institutional models from other continents (e.g., Grameen Bank, Green Revolution package programs, the T&V extension model, and agricultural university models from India and the USA), thereby short-circuiting the timeconsuming process of building indigenous institutions through a trial and error and learning-by-doing process.Without question, the magnitude of the institution-building task in Africa is more daunting than it was in India in the 1960s, when three major international organizations helped that country build a system of agricultural institutions. 3 By contrast, in Zambia in 1996, there were 180 different agricultural projects being financed by a dozen major donors. The challenge now is to merge, reshape, and craft a coherent system of public and private agricultural support institutions in Zambia and other African nations. Building effective institutions is an onerous task because of the plethora of donors and the thousands of NGOs that are awkwardly trying to make the transition from their proven role in food relief to becoming effective agents of agricultural development (White and Eicher 1999).This lecture covers four topics: Afro-pessimism and what can be learned from a similar wave of pessimism that blanketed Asia in the 1960s; what has been learned about the causes of Africa's empty harvest; capacity building in agriculture with an emphasis on the agricultural knowledge triangle that comprises three interlinked institutions (teaching, research, and extension); and, in closing, institutional challenges for debate and further study. Special attention will be devoted to the sharp decline in the quality of African university education, human capital degradation, and the \"meltdown\" in the capacity of African universities to offer high-quality graduate education. Unfortunately, this meltdown is occurring at the same time that donors have \"pulled the plug\" on scholarships that enable African agriculturalists to study overseas.Afro-pessimism is flourishing in Africa today. It reflects the sense of hopelessness that Africans feel about on-going civil wars, corruption, urban violence, AIDS, and the limited success of foreign aid in improving the welfare of the average person. Today's Afropessimism stands in sharp contrast to the optimism of the 1960s when Africa was a modest net exporter of food. At independence in 1960, the absence of a food crisis and the fervent belief in industrialization help explain why many of Africa's new leaders shunned agriculture and announced bold plans to catch up with industrial nations by the year 2000. This optimism was shared by many economists. In 1967, the World Bank's chief economist identified seven African countries with \"the potential to reach or surpass\" a 7% annual economic growth rate (Kamarck 1967). But reality intervened and every one of the seven countries registered negative per capita growth rates over the 1970-1988  Malaysia's R&D-driven oil palm industry is a strong competitor with the USA and Brazil in the world edible oil markets (Jenkins and Lai 1992). In addition, Asian farmers today are routinely producing rice for African palates. Senegal, for example, is importing around 1,000 t of rice every day of the year, mainly from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan. China's agricultural sector grew at an annual rate of 5.9% during 1980-1990(World Bank 1999), more than triple the 1.6% average agricultural growth rate in the USA and Japan over the past hundred years (Hayami and Ruttan 1985). Although China is still a poor country, with an average per capita income of around US$ 2.50 a day, it has increased family food security and banished famine. The average male life expectancy in China is now 71 years, just six years short of that in the USA (World Bank 1999). Finally, Bangladesh, long considered a \"basket case,\" has recently emerged as an agricultural success story (Ahmed, Haggblade, and Elahi, forthcoming). The  (1996). A reviewer concluded that \"global books such as Kaplan's are exercises in selling fear more than understanding\" (Gourevitch 1996).To summarize, political and economic forecasts for developing countries have proven to be far off the mark. Unfortunately, many instant experts on Africa, such as Kaplan, are reinforcing Africa's sense of failure rather than shedding light on what Africans can do to take charge of the development agenda and begin the ascent to a better tomorrow.The vast, complex, and diverse continent of Africa defies easy generalizations. But after 40 years of independence, five basic facts emerge from Africa's development experience:4 Soil scientists discovered that the soils in central Brazil become depleted after 2-3 years of continuous cultivation. But with the application of lime, phosphate fertilizer, and erosion controls, the soils are highly productive (Sanchez et al. 1982).♦ Africa has an average annual per capita GNP of US$ 500 (World Bank 1999). ♦ Africa's life expectancy is low, and it is falling in some countries because of AIDS. Life expectancy is one decade less than that of South Asia and almost two decades less than that of China. ♦ Africa's empty harvest has been dominated by two interrelated food policy problems: short-term food emergencies and a long-term food production gap. ♦ The volume of many of Africa's traditional export crops has fallen since the early 1970s, resulting in a decline in export earnings, income, and employment for rural people. 5 ♦ Africa's development crisis is far more than economic in nature. The lack of political leadership, the dearth of farm organizations, and the general absence of a \"good institutional environment\" explain why the crisis will not yield readily to economic prescriptions. Africa's empty harvest in both food and traditional export crops should be examined together and in historical perspective.Agricultural exports in the continent were buoyant in the 1950s and 1960s, but the volume of traditional agricultural exports declined sharply in the 1970s. Beginning in 1973, Africa became a net food importer. As we dig deeper, we find that virtually every African and Western agricultural economist was slow to recognize that Africa's growing food imports in the 1970s represented the beginning of a chronic food gap. This oversight was clouded by Africa's land abundance and a conviction that the 1968-1974 drought in the Sahelian region of West Africa was a transitory event, rather than the beginning of a decline in Africa's long-term capacity to feed itself.5 By 1988, Africa's total export earnings were less than those of Singapore, a country of 2.5 million people (Summers 1988). If Africa had maintained its global share of nonpetroleum exports, it would have generated an additional US$ 10 billion in revenue each year during the 1970s, an amount approaching its total annual foreign aid receipts during that period.Africa's empty harvest was unambiguously identified as a chronic problem in seminal reports by the FAO (1978) and the USDA (1981).Both reports urged African governments to pursue a disciplined strategy to increase food production over the long run. Nevertheless, most African leaders failed to act on those two reports. 6   The Honorable Tom Mboya, Kenya's charismatic Minister of Economic Planning, was a lonesome advocate for boosting food production in the 1960s. In 1967, Mboya addressed the opening meeting of the Economic Commission for Africa and argued:A food programme for Africa must be intimately related to the needs of the rest of the world. Our aim is not self-sufficiency; it is to become a major net supplier to the rest of the world. No matter how successful our efforts are to industrialize, it remains a fact that Africa will be for many generations, primarily a producer of agricultural and other primary products. We must learn to do it well and on a rapidly growing scale. This will require a massive frontal attack, not only on the research needs to which I have already referred, but also on the practical problems of production, storage, and marketing\" (Mboya 1967).Africa's food crises should be viewed in historical perspective. and the results fell as short as the \"war\" on rural poverty in the United States in the 1960s. 9To summarize, the African response to its empty harvest in food and export crops has been sporadic. But development is a cumulative process that is built on a foundation of learning from false starts, poisoned gifts, pilot projects, and occasional successes (Hirschman 1967). Viewing development as a cumulative learning experience entails sifting through the evidence in the hope that a new generation of survivors has learned something from Africa's experience. Indeed, valuable insights have been gained about the command system versus the market, agrarian capitalism and socialism, the false dichotomy between food crops and cash crops, the folly of developing industry in isolation from agriculture, and the power of special interest groups in pressuring politicians in industrial nations to broaden the development agenda (Stiglitz 1998).By looking back 40 years, we have gleaned some insights that may be helpful in understanding the causes of Africa's empty harvest and how to get African agriculture moving again. Essential to understanding the situation are the intertwined phenomena of time optimism 10 and catching-up.Africa's 40 years of independence have been overlaid with an understandable time optimism and a penchant to catching-up with industrial nations in a few decades. The distinguished political scientist Crawford Young recalls:9 The IRD direct attack on rural poverty failed in the Appalachian region of the USA (during Lyndon Johnson's presidency), just as a similar program (community development) failed in some 60 countries in Latin America and Asia in the 1950s and 1960s. See Holdcroft (1984) for a discussion of the rise and fall of the community development thrust in the 1950s and Binswanger (1998) for a discussion of the \"painful lessons\" derived from the IRD experience. 10 The term \"time optimism\" conveys the practice of understating the time that it will take to achieve a given task such as building sustainable institutions in Africa.It's difficult to recapture the sense of exhilaration that attended African liberation at its high water mark in 1960, when no fewer than sixteen states achieved independence. The crumbling of colonialism seemed but prologue to other triumphs (Young 1982).I recall the spirit of optimism in the early 1960s about Nigeria's prospects for becoming an industrial powerhouse by the year 2000. This was a tall order, but it permeated planning circles and foreign aid thinking and it helps explain why many of Africa's new leaders bet on industry as the vehicle to leapfrog over the agrarian stage of development.The time dimension has been a major issue in Africa's development debates, especially over the issue of the short-and the long-run priorities for agriculture. Time was also a major issue in Asian policy debates in the early 1960s when influential Asian economists, Benjamin Higgins, and others argued that because agriculture was a declining industry in the long run (in terms of the percentage of the labor force employed and GDP), it was prudent to give short-run priority to industrialization. But William H. Nicholls (1964) argued that short-run policy attention should be given to agriculture to avert a subsequent food bottleneck and a chain reaction of higher food prices, higher wages, and reduced industrial profits.One of the most important tasks for agricultural economists is to convince ministries of finance to invest some of the taxes collected from farmers back into rural infrastructure and basic agricultural institutions in the short run in order to enhance the productivity of agriculture in the medium to long term. Few agricultural economists in Africa have won this argument, partially because of the ready availability of food aid subscriptions. Also, in dual agrarian societies such as South Africa, large-scale farms have helped ensure a reliable food surplus, thus taking the pressure off the ruling party and the Ministry of Finance to address the needs of the country's 10 million communal farms and the rural poor (Eicher   and Rukuni 1996). 11   The belief that a poor nation can catch up through an \"industrial spurt\" has undermined the case for a disciplined, longterm approach to building rural infrastructure and the scientific capacity for a modern agriculture. Five examples illustrate the time optimism and penchant for instant development:♦ The distinguished Ghanaian economist Robert Gardiner (who later became the head of the UN Economic Commission for Africa) captured the catch-up mood of many African intellectuals and politicians during the 1960s when he noted that: \"Given the variety of raw materials and their quality and the potential resources of energy and power with which the continent is endowed, there is no reason why the present level of development in Western Europe should not be attained by Africa by the beginning of the next century\" (Gardiner 1968). ♦ At a political rally in Senegal in 1969, President Senghor launched what he called the \"Mystique of the Year 2000\" and articulated a \"vision of a modern and prosperous Senegal in the year 2000, a Senegal that by then would have tripled its per capita income and entered the ranks of the world's industrialized nations\" (Gellar 1982). ♦ Philip Ndegwa, the late governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, summed up the urgency of getting on with development by noting that Africa is \"desperately short of time\" (Ndegwa 1987). ♦ The influential 1981 World Bank report Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa (the Berg report), which made the intellectual case for structural adjustment and policy 11 See Carter and May (1999) for an analysis of rural poverty in South Africa and the policies that are needed to lift the constraints that limit the effective use of the assets (land and labor) of the poor.reforms, concluded with this note of optimism: \"policy action and foreign assistance that are mutually reinforcing will surely work together to build a continent that shows real gains in both development and income in the near future\" (World Bank 1981). ♦ Former World Bank Vice President for Africa Edward V. K.Jaycox reported that if we \"focus on capacity building per se, not take it for granted that the capacity is there, we can make a tremendous difference in a very short time in Africa\" (Jaycox␣ ␣ 1993).These examples of time optimism illustrate why it is important to inject the time dimension into the analysis of capacity building.Because of time optimism it is easy to downplay the time and resources that will be required for building scientific and managerial capacity and moving low-income nations in Africa into the ranks of middleincome countries. Surely it is a challenge for the coming 25 to 50 years. ♦ Should industrialization be promoted in isolation from village agriculture and rural industries or as a complementary activity that promotes agriculture-industry and rural-urban growth linkages? ♦ Should priority be given to investing public revenues from taxes on farmers back into agriculture (e.g., roads, schools, research) or into the industrial sector? ♦ Should agricultural production be carried out by small-scale private farms or by state-led production schemes such as government plantations, farm settlements, state farms, and ujamaa (communal) farming schemes?Most new nations answered these questions by pursuing industrialization and state-led agricultural production schemes. A large share of the public revenue from marketing board taxes on farmers was invested in industrial projects (e.g., cement and textile plants) and large-scale agricultural schemes, many of which were inherited from the colonial powers. The Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC) is a good example and it illustrates the concept of path-dependence in action. 12 The CDC was created in 1946 as a statutory corporation to take over and administer the plantations confiscated from the Germans in 1939. At independence in 1960, the new Cameroonian government nationalized the CDC and operated its plantations as a parastatal (government corporation). But the CDC has been a money-losing white elephant. Today it has a labor force of 13,000 and 100,000 ha of land; which includes 11 rubber plantations, seven oil palm plantations, three tea plantations, and two banana plantations. Because the CDC complex has been a drain on the treasury, the government put the entire complex on the international auction block in early 1999.Path-dependence also comes into play in devising schemes to tax farmers. At independence, many of Africa's new governments continued using the colonial-style marketing boards to tax export crops produced by smallholders. Much of the public revenue from the government marketing boards was invested in state-led agricultural schemes that politicians sprinkled across the landscape. conferred tax benefits to large-scale commercial farmers in countries such as Zimbabwe, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Malawi. 13   Africa's empty harvest is partially attributed to the gamble at independence to give priority to building modern industrial plants in isolation from the concurrent modernization of village agriculture and village industries (Hayami 1998). Basically, the decision of Africa's new nations to invest public revenues from agricultural taxes into state-run steel mills and plantations (instead of public goods such as rural roads and agricultural colleges to help smallscale farms) represented a pursuit of Karl Marx's belief in mechanized farming and the replication of Stalin's priority for industry. 14 But the decision of Africa's new leaders to invest in industry in isolation from village agriculture and rural industries was also consonant with the views of many Western development economists in the 1950s, who assumed that agriculture was a passive sector, a black box that could be squeezed to finance industry. The author of a leading development economics textbook of the 1950s, for example, asserted that \"agriculture stands convicted\" for its inability to stimulate economic growth in other sectors of a nation's economy (Hirschman 1958). Today, development textbooks emphasize the importance of promoting agricultural and industrial linkages, increasing rural non-farm incomes, and building rural and urban linkages in an era of globalization. 1513 See Deininger and Binswanger (1995) for a detailed examination of rent-seeking and the tax benefits given to large-scale farms in Kenya, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. 14 The industrial fundamentalism that blanketed Asia in the 1950s and Africa in the 1960s was partially based on the hope of replicating Stalin's heavy industry model, which converted the Soviet Union into the world's second industrial power in two decades . India borrowed the concept of central planning and industrialization from the Soviets in the 1950s. India, however, abandoned the Soviet heavy industry model in the mid-1960s and gave priority to addressing its food crisis. Likewise, after a decade of experimentation, China discarded the Soviet heavy industry model in 1970 and shifted to a balanced industry/ agricultural development strategy followed by the abandonment of communal farming in 1978 and the introduction of the household responsibility system (Lin 1998). 15 See Reardon et al. (1998) and Hayami (1998).Regrettably, the decision of many new nations to give priority to industry over agriculture during the past 40 years of independence has yielded a number of false starts in an agrarian-dominated continent. The experiences of Ghana, Tanzania, Nigeria, and Senegal illustrate the folly of giving priority to industry and state-led agricultural production and processing projects. Let us start with Ghana, the most economically advanced country in Africa (excluding South Africa) at independence in 1957.Kwame Nkrumah, the leader of the interim government during Ghana's drive for independence in the early 1950s, invited W. ArthurLewis to develop a strategy to guide the government in its drive to become a modern industrial nation by the year 2000. Lewis, who later went on to win the Nobel prize in economics, surprisedCoast 16 that Ghana should give priority to increasing food production, not industrialization (Lewis 1953). Lewis argued that an industry-first strategy would be undermined by food shortages and rising food prices, which would raise wage rates and eventually slow the rate of growth of industrial production.Nkrumah ignored Lewis' recommendation and Ghana gave priority to industrialization and harnessing the hydropower of the Volta River to provide cheap electric power for an aluminum bauxite industry. Turning to farming, Nkrumah abolished the national agricultural extension service that served small-scale farms because of his conviction that private small-scale farms were \"an obstacle to the spread of socialist ideas\" (Killick 1978). Nkrumah promoted state farms because of his belief in the Marxist view of the presumed economies of scale of large-scale plantations and mechanized farming (Nweke 1978). 16 The Gold Cost was renamed Ghana at independence. When Senegal won its independence from France in 1960, President Leopold Senghor announced grandiose plans for Senegal to become an industrial society through \"state initiative and planning, economic specialization, and industrialization\" (Vaillant 1990). In the 1960s, the government followed the advice of French to 1965 (Rweyemamu 1980). However, the rate of growth slowed considerably in the 1970s and by 1980, because of high investment costs, mismanagement, and a lack of basic infrastructure, industrial production costs were 30-300% higher in Africa than in Asia (Rweyemamu 1980).The central insight that flows from these case studies is that after 40 years of independence, most African leaders are not assigning high priority to the first generation problem of getting agriculture moving (Mellor 1998a). Moreover, most policy reform packages are ineffective in addressing the critical issue of \"political and institutional failure.\" Although many African governments accepted aid-for-policy-reform packages from donors during the past 10 to 15 years, it has been relatively easy to renege on the agreedupon reforms. For example, \"during a fifteen-year period, Kenya sold the same agricultural reform to the World Bank four times, each time reversing it after receipt of the aid\" (Collier 1997). The political and geopolitical strategic location of Kenya helps explain why many donors tolerate this type of duplicity. But there are hopeful signs on the horizon. Mali may be considered a case study of a country where agriculture is moving.The military regime was overthrown in 1991 and President Konare took over and promoted democratization, a free press, and the growth of farmer organizations. There are also seeds of hope in the Sahelian region of West Africa. One observer reports that 25 years after the devastating drought, \"most of the countries in the region can claim to have decisively put the threat of famine behind them, making great strides in food production, transport, and marketing\" (van de Walle 1998).But the Sahelian region remains extremely dependent on foreign aid.Additional seeds of hope include the introduction of improved cassava varieties in West Africa (Nweke, forthcoming) and the widespread diffusion of hybrid maize in eastern and southern Africa (Byerlee and Eicher 1997) and more recently in Ethiopia. There are also seeds of hope on the agricultural export front. After the 199421 President Konare has a PhD in archeology. 22 It is still too early to determine whether Mali will join Botswana as an African success story. Much depends on whether the opposition party will emerge as a stronger force and whether President Konare honors the constitution and steps down after two terms in office.Francophone country in West Africa except Senegal. Cotton production has also increased in Mozambique. Success stories in nontraditional export commodities include paprika from Zimbabwe, an array of spices from Madagascar, and cut flowers from Kenya.But success stories are not the product of a mere decade of toil.Effort must be sustained over a period of decades and this requires extraordinary political leadership. For example, in some countries the Turning to the future, it is important that agriculture is called upon to do more than feed Africa's growing population. For if we call on agriculture solely for increased food production, we would be selling agriculture short. Long-term investments must be made in the agricultural sector to feed a growing population, generate jobs for a growing rural labor force, generate foreign exchange through the sale of traditional and non-traditional exports, serve as a market for industrial products, and contribute to rural and urban poverty alleviation by driving down the real (inflation-adjusted) cost of food over time (Johnston and Mellor 1961). These multiple challenges for the agricultural sector explain why agriculture is entitled to a large claim on public resources in order to build roads, research stations, We now turn to the difficult task of figuring out how to develop effective and sustainable agricultural institutions.Africa  Johnston and Mellor (1961); Schultz (1964); Eicher and Baker (1982); Lele (1991); Martin (1992); Idachaba (1995); Eicher and Staatz (1998); Rukuni (1994); Mrema (1997); Hayami (1997); Delgado (1998); Rusike (1998); and Reardon et al. (1998). 24 By contrast, at India's independence in 1947, almost all research scientists were Indian.faculties of agriculture, and converting faculties of agriculture into agricultural universities.The achievements of the first generation of human capital development are impressive:♦ The number of extension workers in sub-Saharan Africa increased from 21,000 in 1959 to 57,000 in 1980 (Judd, Boyce, and Evenson 1986). ♦ The number of universities increased from around 20 in 1960 to 160 in 1996 (Beintema, Pardey, and Roseboom 1998). ♦ The number of full-time equivalent agricultural scientists increased from around 2,000 in 1960 to 9,000 in 1991 (Pardey, Roseboom, and Beintema 1997). In many countries, the number of scientists increased five-to tenfold. In Nigeria, the number of agricultural scientists increased from 100 in 1960 to 1,000 in 1985. 25The overexpansion of many public organizations serving agriculture from 1960 to 1985 was followed by a period of retrenchment and restructuring from 1985 to the present. Structural adjustment loans typically included agreed-upon conditions (conditionality) to reduce the size of the civil service and research and extension services, privatize parastatals, and promote private enterprise. 26 The three core institutions in the agricultural knowledge triangle-research, extension, and higher education-have been downsized and restructured, and new private institutions (seed and 25 To be sure, there is substantial variation among the 48 countries in terms of the timing, speed, and scope of the increase in the size of public agricultural services such as research and extension. Anglophone countries made the most rapid progress in replacing colonial scientists and civil servants. The Francophone countries lagged because many new governments invited the French to continue to manage their national research institutes for 10-15 years after independence. Lusophone countries were latecomers because Mozambique and Angola did not win their independence until 1975.fertilizer companies, universities, etc.) are now in stiff competition with their public counterparts. Following are highlights for the key players in this downsizing phase.Most public agricultural extension services in Africa are now in crisis because of their ineffective performance and their inability to underwrite the quantum growth of most national extension services.The T&V extension model has also come under attack because it has been found to be fiscally unsustainable. The crisis in extension has helped fuel the search for a diversity of approaches, including increased participation of the private sector and NGOs. 27   Unfortunately, there is little rigorous research on the costeffectiveness of alternative extension models.The rapid expansion in the number of agricultural researchers in the 1960s and 1970s was challenged in the 1980s because many public research systems were found to be unproductive and heavily dependent on foreign aid (Pardey, Roseboom, and Beintema 1997).Because of these problems, many national agricultural research systems (NARS) are now being downsized. The Kenya AgriculturalResearch Institute (KARI) is overstaffed and is now being downsized (staff rationalization) with the assistance of a US$ 10 million grant from the European Union. Agricultural research is now moving in the same direction as extension, and a search is underway for a wide range of public and private models that are demand-driven and fiscally sustainable (Rukuni, Blackie, and Eicher 1998).Since the mid-1980s, universities have suffered a sharp cut in real budgets, a decline in the quality of the educational experience,27 For a discussion of alternative extension models for the twenty-first century, see Antholt (1998). For a discussion of the evolution of the T&V system see Venkatesan and Kampen (1998). See Bauer, Hoffman, and Keller (1998)   (Timmer 1991).Timmer's observation reinforces the point that the complexity of African diets demands more location-specific research on cropping systems than is required in the rice bowl of Asia.28 For a discussion of the decline in the quality of the university experience, see Coleman and Court (1993); Ajayi et al. (1996); and Willett (1998). For a discussion of building scientific capacity in agriculture, see McKelvey (1965); Odhiambo (1989); Beintema, Pardey, and Roseboom (1998); Eicher (1990); Jones and Blackie (1991); Lele (1991); Lynam and Blackie (1994);and World Bank (1992). 29 French, English, Spanish, German, Belgian, Portugese, and Italian.The second insight is that most African nations are at an earlier stage of scientific and institutional development than India was on the eve of the Green Revolution in the mid-1960s. This proposition challenges the prevailing time optimism and reinforces the need to pay careful attention to the time and resources required to accomplish the task of strengthening the human capital base and the institutional foundation. 30   Third, imported institutions from other cultures and other continents will undoubtedly have a high failure rate in Africa if they are replicated before the satisfactory completion of a pilot phase. The T&V extension model is an example of replicating an imported model in several dozen African countries before it was thoroughly tested. But testing and modifying imported models requires public and foundation resources to finance pilot projects and independent evaluation teams that have the freedom to collect benchmark data and evaluate the performance of alternative organizational models. 31   The slow and patient development of the Grameen model of microcredit is a good example of how action research and pilot projects were used to develop a new type of credit organization (the Grameen Bank) before it was replicated on a national scale. AfterProfessor Mohamed Yunus completed his graduate study in economics in the United States, he joined a university in northern Bangladesh and set up an action research project to find out if the poor were bankable, i.e., would they repay small loans. He secured financial support from the Ford Foundation and later from IFAD to implement action research from 1976 to 1979 in villages surrounding 30 See Lele and Goldsmith (1989) for an insightful analysis of India's strategy of building scientific capacity in agriculture. 31 If we turn back the clock to the colonial period, we note that before the large Gezira irrigation scheme was launched in the Sudan, researchers carried out pilot agronomic projects for 13 years before the water was turned on (Milligan and Hapgood 1967) Fourth, there are numerous design flaws in donor-financed, supply-driven models of institution building (Ruttan 1982;Eicher 1982;and Tendler 1997). Notable among these flaws is the priority given to front-loading research, extension, and education projects with new buildings, vehicles, and overseas training in order to achieve visible progress in four to five years, the time frame that most donors need to justify the preparation of a second five-year phase. The repetition of this cycle often leads to a large staff, a magnificent set of buildings, limited scientific capacity, and a bloated and fiscally unsustainable institution. Also, the supply side approach that is supported by foreign aid allows local administrators (deans of To be sure, much has been accomplished during the downsizing and restructuring of extension, research, and higher education over the past 15 years, but there is a paucity of research on the performance of these restructured institutions. For example, there are numerous studies showing that NGOs can increase grassroots participation in extension programs, but there is no study in Africa to date on the cost and benefits of achieving these higher rates of participation (White and Eicher 1999).We now turn to some bread-and-butter issues 34   Tanzania alone (Jaycox 1997). 35 Because of the well-known flaws in the project approach to institution building, let us turn to the agricultural knowledge triangle as a way of integrating research, extension, and education activities and ensuring the sequential continuity of investments in these core institutions.Over the past 10 to 15 years, there has been an on-going debate about the need to move beyond the project-by-project approach to a systems approach to coordinate and sequence interlinked investments in agricultural research, extension, and education. 36   Various scholars have articulated this approach under the following rubrics: agricultural knowledge system, agricultural knowledge information system (AKIS), and what I call the agricultural knowledge triangle. 37 Basically, these approaches argue that public and private managers of separately governed institutions should come together and \"coordinate\" decisions on the size and sequencing of complementary investments, because the payoff has been found to be higher if they are planned and executed as a joint activity rather than pursued as freestanding extension, research, or education projects (Evenson, Waggoner, and Ruttan 1979;Bonnen 1998;Boughton et al. 1995).Despite the high returns to projects that integrate research, extension, and education, African governments and donors, for many reasons, have usually prepared separate projects for each of 35 See Morss (1984) for an early statement on the negative impact of the proliferation of donors and projects on the major institutions in Africa. 36 See Roling (1988) for a discussion of this evolution. For an update on Wageningen University's adoption of a knowledge system approach see Roseboom and Rutten (1998). 37 Examples include a USAID plan to strengthen agricultural research and faculties of agriculture (USAID 1985); ISNAR's report on strengthening linkages between research and farmers' organizations (Eponou 1996)  38 Lastly, the bureaucracies of donor and international organizations present their own constraints.An extension specialist describes the bureaucratic difficulties in preparing and implementing joint research, extension, and agricultural higher education projects in the World Bank:The Bank's involvement with the development of higher agricultural education at the university level in Africa has been minimal. . . . Within the Bank, the Agriculture Divisions have no responsibility for universities, which are the responsibility of the Education Divisions. . . .research do not provide support to higher agricultural education (Venkatesan 1991).What has been the result of sprinkling separate extension, research, and higher education projects across the African landscape?Has this approach resulted in an underinvestment in one of the three 38 See Johnson and Okigbo (1989) for a critique of the introduction of the land grant model in Nigeria and Idachaba (1998)  The bread-and-butter issues in strengthening agricultural knowledge triangles in East and Central Africa are extremely complex because of the colonial legacy, the large number of agricultural institutions in the region, the institutional preferences of a multiplicity of donors, and the fragmentation of agriculture and natural resources within universities into separate faculties of agriculture, forestry, and environmental sciences (Mrema 1997;Norman 1998). Table 2 shows that there are currently 35 faculties of agriculture, forestry, and veterinary medicine in the ten countries in East and Central Africa. With 35 faculties, there is an obvious duplication of effort in the region, which leads us to ask, \"Why can't the faculties of agriculture and forestry be merged in some of these universities?\" Because of the large number of faculties of agriculture and forestry in the region, most donors do not have an adequate information base for deciding which faculty or faculties to support in the region.    (Wessell 1998). To date, eight PhD courses 39 The total intake of MSc students was as follows : 1989, 20; 1991, 12; 1993, 5; and 1997, 3. 40 For an exchange of views on T&V extension in Kenya, see Bindlish and Evenson (1997); Picciotto and Anderson (1997); Anderson (1998);and Murethi and Anderson (1998).   I have stressed the basic point that research, extension, and agricultural higher education are complementary activities and that the collective return on investments in these activities will be higher if they are interlinked rather than pursued separately. But designing a triangle that achieves sequential continuity in these three investments requires a rare skill that is not covered in the basic textbooks on project appraisal. Crafting is a process-an intensely political process. The University of Nairobi's 25-year attempt to develop a sustainable, regional master's degree program in agricultural economics is a classic example of an organizational experiment that was financed by the North but never supported by the national or regional governments, in this instance, Kenya's political leadership and its Ministry of Finance.Unfortunately, there is a dearth of vision in Africa, in donor communities, and in academia on how to craft demand-driven agricultural knowledge triangles and how to achieve sequential continuity of the core investments. In light of this vacuum, I recommend that a one-year moratorium be imposed on all proposed donor-financed research, extension, and higher education projects in Africa. Those 12 months should be used to buy time to allow African  45 Also see Berg (1993) and Jaycox (1993Jaycox ( , 1997)).institutions such as the state agricultural university system (Busch 1988) What are the most productive roles for public, private, and NGO institutions in supporting African farmers, traders, and agribusiness firms? There are many ideological positions on this issue, but there is little hard evidence on the performance of various types of public, private, and NGO organizations over time. However, we can glean some insights from Zimbabwe's experience in laying the foundation for increasing maize production:♦ The government-not Oxfam-developed Zimbabwe's impressive all-weather road network. ♦ The government-not private seed companies-conducted research for 28 years  that led to the development of the SR-52 hybrid that increased maize yields by 40%.♦ Commercial farmers-not external pressure-developed a politically powerful farm organization that made the case in the Parliament for public investments in research and farmer support organizations (Eicher 1995).Zimbabwe's experience highlights the strategic importance of an active government role in the early stage of development, because private traders are unlikely to deliver research, extension, and credit services to smallholders, especially those in remote areas (Blackie 1990). The state was the organizer and risk-taker in developing Zimbabwe's all-weather road network, agricultural research system, and its extension service. Zimbabwe's private sector has slowly taken on a greater role in maize breeding, seed distribution, and the marketing of new high-value export crops. Avoiding dogmatism is critical when considering what should be done by the state or the private sector and when examining the sequencing and changing roles of the public and private sectors and NGOs over time (Bonnen␣ 1998;Echeverria 1998).Over the past 40 years, the pendulum for building Africa's human capital and scientific capacity has shifted from building new institutions (i.e., the supply side approach) to a more delimited or marginalist approach. Most of the current capacity-building programs can be classified as marginalist. Donors have made this shift because of on-going civil wars, the failure of large-scale institution-building projects, and a growing awareness of the length of time involved in institution building. Currently, short-term capacity-building initiatives are in vogue in donor circles. These include support for commodity research networks (Robinson 1998) and strengthening a single discipline, such as economics under the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) (Fine 1997).On the issue of time, two scholars studying the experience of the Rockefeller Foundation's University Development Program (UDP), which assisted 15 universities in 12 countries for 20 years (1963 to 1983), concluded that \"a high concentration of resources over a short period of time can result in a 'too much, too soon' syndrome\" (Coleman and Court 1993). If the Rockefeller Foundation discovered that 20 years was too short of a time to build strong and effective universities, what does one infer from this experience for the architects of the marginalist approaches that are now in vogue?The lesson that I draw is that time and sustainability should be kept in mind as donors finance an increasing number of commodity networks and draw up 10-year plans to develop \"sustainable\" PhD programs in Africa.African and Western scholars should challenge the misleading time optimism that is now conventional wisdom in development circles. Without question there is a need to mount a major effort to strengthen the agriculture knowledge triangle over the next 25 to␣ 50␣ years.Undergraduate education is the bread-and-butter of African university education, and the political pressure to increase undergraduate enrollment is relentless. Nevertheless, the urgency to set up African-based graduate programs is dramatized by two sobering facts. First, as few as 20 Africans a year currently receive doctorates in economics from all sources, both within the continent (including South Africa) and outside of it (Fine 1997). Second, Ghana has been independent for 42 years and \"no Ghanian university has ever produced a PhD in Economics\" (Jebuni 1998). When the AERC was launched in 1988, it carried out a study of graduate education in economics in Africa and found that \"graduate training in any meaningful sense appeared to have collapsed in most universities.\"The study attributed this to the following systemic causes: \"lack of funds, civil disorder, loss of good staff, deteriorating faculties and equipment, and a massive expansion of undergraduate enrollment\" (Fine 1997) What is the role of the CGIAR in capacity building in Africa?What has transpired since my critique of the CGIAR in the early 1990s (Eicher 1992(Eicher , 1994)? In 1992, I argued that the CGIAR management had taken a wrong turn in the road when they increased the number of CGIAR centers from 13 to 18 46 and that the CGIAR was overburdened with secondary tasks at the expense of 46 Today, the CGIAR comprises16 centers.that which was essential. Looking back, it is clear that the addition of five new centers was driven by valid substantive concerns to expand research on natural resources and the environment, and the desire of some bilateral donors to find a permanent home (in the CGIAR) for some of the non-affiliated centers that they had been supporting. The 47 Commercial farms have annual sales of over US$ 100,000 per year; part-time farms have sales of US$ 10,000-99,000 per year, and hobby farms have sales of less than US$ 10,000 per year.","tokenCount":"7806"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"5258a4348cb5125dcfdb09618577b375","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/65a29ab6-d935-4852-af4c-9cb310a2239e/retrieve","id":"-900514779"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"5c0c9497-4171-4507-9ed1-23f7ef1f8d29","pagecount":"11","content":" High capacity: third largest ILRI regional office and priority country for CGIAR collaboration  Well placed to examine \"future issues\" such as consumer demand and livestock externalities  To be credible as a global program, CRP Livestock needs presence in Asia [The Livestock CRP can] focus on difficult regions with high poverty and ethnic minorities, showing how research can deliver impact in challenging area, but can also conduct active research in medium scale intensified livestock areas to address priority issues on market, feeds and forage, animal diseases, food safety, AMR and the environment. While poverty rates have reduced rapidly over the past decade at national level, there remain sizable pockets of poverty at regional level, particularly in North-West, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta regions. In these areas, livestock, particularly indigenous pigs and cattle, play an important livelihoods function and could raise household income if market access, productivity, and animal disease constraints are overcome. This suggests a need for a targeted, regional approach for livestockoriented research in Vietnam.[Decision was taken to enlarge the pig value chain focus to a full system perspective. Indeed,] beef cattle is an emerging sector in Vietnam and almost exclusively found in mountainous areas where ethnic minority people live and land is available for forage development.[With a longer-term perspective,] Vietnam represents an important platform for engaging the Greater Mekong Subregion, including the much less developed countries of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, which is becoming increasingly integrated by regional trade in livestock products. The targeted investment of Livestock CRP, complemented by A4NH, with currently running and pipelined bilateral projects, and many staff based in Vietnam will create a critical mass for ILRI and CIAT to develop and implement research in Vietnam and Southeast Asia.for livelihoods (Figure 1) and pressing environmental, market and production problems, as well as the proximity to Hanoi for logistic and field operations supervision.Figure 1. Livestock as income source in total and per animal species. Source: ILRI Son La province has been selected based on a number of criteria: -previous work: data available, partners. Availability of previous data allows a fast start and omitting a long initial analysis phase.-current work: partners active in the area, potential for synergies. Availability of ongoing project to link to for partner networks, MoU and providing \"services\"/support to for a fast and efficient start and achieving results in a short time -Government priority -mountainous area -ethnic minorities -importance of livestock -poverty -accessibility and proximity to Hanoi: it allows more efficient interactions with local partners and field coordination -interest of donors -potential for scaling outside -smallholder diverse farming systems: System variety allows for the implementation of a diverse array of products and research.Son La province seems to meet all of these criteria:  Distance is 3 hours' drive from Hanoi to Moc Chau, infrastructure is good  Data are available from Humidtropics, A4NH and other projects. Humidtropics work had a system focus and provides a lot of analysis but no concrete products to adopt or build on. It is useful for site selection and needs assessment, with a plethora of available data. A4NH's focus is on food safety, animal health and antimicrobial resistance, as well as market linkages  Currently at least one ACIAR project and A4NH are working in the provinces  The province has more connected, commercial, and more remote, ethnic minority dominated and traditional farming systems, including cattle, pig, poultry and buffaloes  Kinh people (ethnic majority) comprise only about 15% of the population  The North West in general is a government priority for rural development More information on the province is also available in T.Tiemann's stocktaking study 1 .In its selection process, A4NH has identified four districts of Son La province with highest priority for in-depth food system research: Moc Chau, Yen Chau, Mai Son and Phu Yen (Figure 2). Among these four districts, Moc Chau has been chosen as rural district for their rural-urban gradient. The criteria for this are available in the A4NH site selection document 2 . As one of the ideas when deciding to work in the North West was also to take advantage of the work of others to spare long baseline and site selection activities in view of the short project duration, Moc Chau has also been selected tentatively for the Livestock CRP, considering the high importance of livestock for livelihoods in the district. The choice of Moc Chau district allows to gain a food system perspective at low cost, and the Livestock CRP can benefit from A4NH experience and network of local partners in the district. Still, it was cautioned to go with Moc Chau as the district might be relatively well developed and not representative for the Northwest of Vietnam. Particularly, linking to the prevailing commercial dairy schemes in Moc Chau, as they are very well developed and the ability to meaningfully contribute is questionable. Therefore, it was decided to have two sites, a more advanced location in Moc Chau and a more remote location elsewhere in the province. This would allow to capture two different 'environments' so more variability, recommendations coming out will cover more domains and/or target different domains (species, value-chain stage etc.).The domain mapping from HT also allowed districts comparison. Table 1 shows the percentage of households of Son La province falling into one of eight overlay combinations, characterized by three domains: environmental degradation, market constraints, and poverty. The combinations in blue (LHH, HLL and HHL) were the one most represented in Dien Bien and Son La provinces. Mai Son, Moc Chau, and Song Ma districts have at least 2 out of 3 combinations represented. More information on this analysis is available in T.Tiemann report. As Song Ma is less accessible, Mai Son was preferred to complement Moc Chau. The final selection of the second district was decided according to a number of criteria (Table 2). Based on the three sets of information above, Moc Chau and Mai Son were selected for the Livestock CRP activities at this stage.Following a visit in Moc Chau and Mai Son districts in May 2019, the Livestock CRP delegation observed that livestock might not be as important in the two districts, and that we might need to revisit the choice of the two districts, eventually to limit to one if the heterogeneity in farm types that are of interest for the CRP interventions are all present in one district. It was therefore decided to repeat the district selection process, with selection criteria identified as follow:-Level of livestock importance to livelihoods (for incentive creation) [high=more favourable site] -Level of partnership opportunities -existing and new, both implementing and research partners [high=more favourable site] -Political good-will / buy-in from the government [high=more favourable site] -Community willingness to participate [high=more favourable site] -Level of poverty [high=more favourable site] -% population that are ethnic minorities [high=more favourable site] -Heterogeneity of systems / farm-types [high=more favourable site] …. Discussion on whether we predefine and include as a criteria, or whether we identify districts and then from that identify the farm-types -Year-round accessibility is a must have criteria Data for each criteria was gathered from secondary data and key informants, scored and weighted. Three criteria were considered as essential: livestock importance to livelihoods, community willingness to participate/easiness to get permits, heterogeneity of farming systems (as per Figure 3). These criteria were assigned a weight of 1. Political good-will was assigned a weight of 0.5, and poverty rate and year-round accessibility a 0.25. The latter two, as well as ethnic minority presence and level of partnership opportunities were considered as better addressed at the level of commune selection. Details of the scoring can be found in annexes. The resulting scores for each district and focusing on pig, buffalo and cattle (method 1) or all animal species (method 2) are presented in Table 3. Details are given in Annexes. Accordingly, the district chosen was Mai Son. This single district, as opposed to two or three districts, was selected based on the information that all farming systems could be found here. The criteria for the commune selection for the project intervention were:-poverty rate (keeping in mind that the target beneficiaries are farmers that have the basic assets to take up on basic innovative technologies) -presence of ethnic minorities and different wealth groups -level of partnership opportunities -presence of all three farming systems from Figure 3 (in single commune or across 2 -3 communes).We had learnt by this stage of site selection that the typology of the crop-livestock farming system (Figure 3) predominantly focused on cattle feeding systems and that villages could not solely be classified into a single type (i.e. variability between households). Therefore, for commune selection we utilized only the aspect of altitude.Table 4 was filled based on available data and key informants who provided options for commune combinations which would satisfy the criteria (see Selection option? Column -Alt 1, 2 or 3). Note that accessibility is not included as all commune centers can be accessed and most communes have challenges accessing the more remote villages, we could also not obtain data on landless percentages, percentage of cultivated land irrigated or grazing area. The partnership opportunities criteria was assessed qualitatively through discussions with the key informants. The communes of Chieng Luong and Chieng Chuong were chosen for meeting best the set of criteria agreed upon. ","tokenCount":"1548"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"d82f5b9507557da9fe65e4a72fc4a951","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/e516f004-04a5-4927-8e15-0eb576c3cf63/retrieve","id":"918102788"},"keywords":["Low emissions development","action research","priority setting","climate change","agricultural development","USAID"],"sieverID":"9f56d488-2480-4383-8782-eb0329ed6ef3","pagecount":"31","content":"Low emissions development strategies (LEDS) are national economic and social development plans that promote sustainable development while reducing GHG emissions. While LEDS programs have helped to mainstream economy-wide planning for low emissions, planning for low emissions agriculture has remained nascent. Low-emissions development (LED) in agriculture acknowledges that the primary purpose of agriculture is to produce food and other goods for human needs, and that climate change mitigation is a secondary goal that should not compromise production. This paper describes a research process and protocol to identify high potential LED options in agriculture at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The case study illustrates the steps for the identification and prioritization of LED options including: idea generation, concept development, and evidence building. Each stage is designed to gather and analyze data that specifically enable managers and stakeholders to make informed evaluations. The method gathers not only emission and mitigation information but also food security and income generation data, lending process legitimacy to the research. The incorporation of institutional factors and local contextual systems in the LED concept development stage improves the output credibility and salience.In the final process phase, stakeholders are given an active role in determining the criteria for prioritization and building evidence. The LED option identification and prioritization process illustrates how careful evidence-building can increase the credibility and salience of outputs and legitimacy of the overall results.Agriculture, forestry, and other land use sectors contribute 24% of anthropogenic global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is equal to 10-12 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year (Smith et al. 2014); developing countries currently account for about three-quarters of direct emissions (Smith et al. 2007). Lowering agricultural emissions and increasing carbon sequestration can play a pivotal role in reducing agriculture's overall contribution to GHG emissions (Ogle et al. 2014).  (Richards, Gregersen, and Kuntze 2015). These pledges signify a powerful demand to define effective and practical options for low emissions development (LED) in the agriculture sector.We define LED in agriculture to mean sustainable development in food systems that reduces GHG emissions, while maintaining production of food and other goods at sufficient levels to satisfy human needs. LED in this context acknowledges that the primary purpose of agriculture is to produce food and other goods for human needs.This paper describes a process that promotes evidence-based decision making by identifying and prioritizing LED options to achieve national mitigation goals. We developed this method during a CCAFS action research project with USAID to inform LED options in the Agency's future agriculture and food security investments. The case study illustrates how a series of steps can be used to identify and prioritize LED options by gathering data, facilitating stakeholder collaboration, and quantifying the GHG emissions benefits of different development options (USAID 2015b) This paper outlines the methods used to identify LED opportunities within USAID's Feed the Future (FTF) food security activities. The first section presents a process to identify and prioritize LED options. The second section examines an application of the process in an action research project at USAID. The third section discusses lessons learned about the process. The final section explores the implications of the process for overall LED planning.The process of generating, developing, and prioritizing LED options involves multiple, sequential stages, similar to those used in stage-gate systems or phased reviews to develop consumer products. Each stage is designed to gather and analyze data that specifically enable managers and stakeholders to evaluate options (Cooper 2008, Hart et al. 2003). The development stages include idea generation, concept development, business case preparation (evidence building), product development, market testing, and market launch (Hart et al. 2003, Sumberg andReece 2004). Although agricultural research planners have explored using stage-gate planning (Sumberg and Reece 2004), the approach is seldom used to plan agricultural research. The following sections outline three of these sequential stages (figure 1).1. LED idea generation. Gather agriculture data that reflect countries' current development needs and trajectories and exhibit potential emissions impacts.Refine LED options by incorporating institutional constraints and national social and contextual factors. The goal of the idea generation stage is to understand the breadth of mitigation opportunities available within a country's agricultural systems and to generate a set of technical choices for each country. Specifically, the crop and livestock systems with the greatest development impact and mitigation potential are identified and prioritized at this initial stage.We first identified a country's dominant crop and livestock systems by gathering data from the FAO Statistical Database (FAO-Stat) on area and production: livestock production (tons), crop production (tons), and cropping extent (harvested areas). Livestock production is a large source of GHG emissions-particularly methane from enteric fermentation and manure decomposition and carbon dioxide from land use change. GHG emissions from crop production result from the use of nitrogen fertilizer and respond to crop residues management, and other agricultural practices, particularly ones that increase below-ground carbon inputs to soil via plant roots.Once the dominant agricultural systems in a country are compiled, they are prioritized based on their potential to minimize net GHG emissions (both opportunities for emissions reduction and carbon sequestration), improve productivity, and meet agricultural development objectives. To this end, the agricultural systems were rated as High, Medium, or Low in each of the following areas:• Mitigation potential of an agricultural system. The relative emissions reduction opportunity of an agricultural system is evaluated based on the direct contribution of the system to the country's agriculture GHG emissions profile. The FAO-Stat database follows the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1997(IPCC , 2006) ) for assessing and reporting GHG emissions. This methodology organizes emissions according to the main sources of emissions emitted directly from agricultural production systems (e.g., enteric fermentation, manure left on pasture, manure management, fertilizer application, rice production, and burning savanna). Emissions that result from production of agricultural inputs or the transport or processing of agricultural products are not accounted for in this methodology.• Productivity enhancement potential of an agricultural system. The relative productivity opportunity of the agricultural system was estimated with the current productivity gap.This criterion compares the productivity of a country's agricultural system with that of the world's most agriculturally productive country.• Systems importance in agricultural development (measured through staple food production or cash crop data). If a country's agricultural system is a dominant staple or cash crop, it is deemed important for agricultural development. For staple crops, ranking depends on the metric Food Supply Crops Primary Equivalent and Livestock and Fish Primary Equivalent. For cash crops, export value determines the ranking.In the final step of LED idea generation, we coupled data about the dominant agricultural systems in each country with mitigation practice data gathered from a literature review. The output of LED idea generation is a long list of potential LED ideas organized around the top food systems in the study countries. To gather robust evidence for LED options, the impacts of different agricultural management practices and the barriers/incentives to their adoption must be investigated. Evidence of impacts include mitigation, non-mitigation environmental, and productivity areas. To assess mitigation impacts, it is important to consider their technical feasibility and confidence level.For non-mitigation environmental impacts, consider impacts of water quality and conservation, soil fertility and structure, air quality, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, and energy conservation. Productivity impacts examine farmer productivity, evidence of labor changes, and farm profitability. LED option barriers and proven incentives should be considered across multiple scales. At the farm scale, consider financial and labor barriers to adoption and proven incentives to overcome them. At the value chain scale, take into account barriers to production systems and those of supply chain actors. Critical elements of the national-and regional-enabling environment are the business-environment context, availability of capital investment, government policy, and infrastructure challenges.After evidence has been gathered, a wide range of stakeholders should prioritize the LED options. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can be used as a decision support technique to balance multiple objectives and facilitate stakeholder interaction on prioritization (Scrieciu et al. 2014). MCDA has been widely applied in evaluating trade-offs of environmental management (Scrieciu et al. 2014, Tambo andWünscher 2015). This prioritization process results in a ranked list of LED options as a basis to allocate resources for scientific evaluation and feasibility research.  (USAID 2015a).An action research lens guides the overall study design. Action research is an iterative process that integrates research, reflection, and action; it balances problem-solving actions with datadriven research. The goal is to understand underlying causes in order to improve the way issues are addressed and to solve problems (Méndez, Bacon, and Cohen 2013). The highly collaborative process of stakeholder engagement extended over 12 months, and the research followed a mixed-method (qualitative and quantitative) design. Two data collection and analysis efforts (figure 2) provided inputs to the LED identification and prioritization process.USAID and qualitative data were collected concurrently, and the two data sets were compared in order to determine whether there is data convergence, differences, or some combination (Creswell 2009). In our process, the mixing of the data is defined by the identification and prioritization of LED options. As stated in the process section, the goal of the LED idea generation stage is to understand the breadth of mitigation opportunities available within a country's top crop and livestock systems. For the USAID case study, the team wanted to better understand the GHG mitigation opportunities outside of FTF current programming. To do this, data were collected on the top agricultural activities in the FTF countries and prioritized. Potential mitigation practices were then aligned with these agricultural activities.As outlined earlier in the paper, FAO-Stat is used to identify the most important agricultural systems in the 19 FTF countries. First, the top three agriculture activities were selected in terms of cropping area (hectare), cropping production (tons), and livestock production for milk and meat (tons) for 2012 (to keep uniformity with the last GHG emissions data updated by FAO-Stat.) Agricultural systems currently within FTF were also added and analyzed using the same process.Next, agricultural food systems were prioritized based on the mitigation potential (both opportunities for emissions reduction and carbon sequestration), productivity improvement potential, and importance of the system in meeting agricultural development objectives. The following set of criteria was used to prioritize these options:1. Emissions reduction potential. This criterion evaluates the agricultural system's importance to the country's GHG emissions profile. The ranking is broken down as follows: contributions up to 15% = Low, between 15% and 30% = Medium, and > 30% = High.2. Enhancing removal of carbon. This criterion covers the agriculture system's potential to sequester carbon above-or/and below-ground. For this exercise, all annual cropping systems are ranked as Medium and perennial crops (including grasses in pasturelands) are ranked as High.3. Productivity enhancement potential. This criterion estimates the potential to decrease the intensity of GHG emissions of a particular agriculture system. For this exercise, the current agricultural system's productivity is compared with the world's highest productivity. The ranking is broken down as follows: productivity up to 33% = High, from 33% to 66% = Medium, and > 66% = Low.4. Systems importance in agricultural development. This criterion assesses the agriculture system's importance in a country's development as measured by staple food or cash crop data. If selected agricultural activities were related to (i) one of the country's first 5 largest staple food or cash crop/livestock, they are ranked as High; (ii) 5-10 of the country's largest staple food or cash crop/livestock, they are ranked as Medium; and (iii) others, they are ranked as Low.Figure 3 shows this LED idea generation scheme applied to Bangladeshi agriculture; a discussion of the scheme follows the figure. 1. Emissions reduction. As figure 3 shows, rice production in Bangladesh is responsible for 31% of the emissions from the agricultural sector in 2012, with meat from goat and cattle responsible for 16% and 18% of total emissions, respectively. All other crops and livestock systems are less than 15%. Therefore, these agriculture systems have High, Medium, and Low potential for emissions reduction, respectively.2. Enhancing removal. Under adequate management practices, annual cropping systems (rice, jute, potatoes, wheat, maize, and sugarcane) have Medium potential for enhancing removal, compared with pasture-based livestock system with perennial grasslands systems (goat, cattle, buffalo), which have High potential.3. Productivity enhancement potential of the agriculture system. The livestock systems and the crop systems of jute, maize, wheat, and sugarcane are rated as having High productivity potential. All other agricultural systems have Medium productivity potential.4. Systems importance in agricultural development. Almost half of the agriculture systems are rated as having High relevance as staple foods. Only jute and potato are rated as having High significance as an export product However, it is important to highlight that emissions from application of synthetic fertilizer to agricultural soils in Bangladesh (9% of total emissions) could not be attributed to any single crop or pasture system, nor could the share of GHG emissions related to some livestock systems (i.e., goat and buffalo raised for milk or beef production). Moreover, there is no information related to agricultural soil management (i.e., tillage system and inputs) and conditions (i.e., size of degraded land) needed to assess soil carbon emissions and removal (IPCC 2006). The absence of this information prevents a more refined evaluation of the country's GHG emission sources. These are limitations of the data collection systems and methodology used by FAO-Stat. In spite of these data issues, the results identify agriculture systems related to most of the country's GHG emissions and, consequently, support prioritization for LED implementation. Suggested enhancements to this LED idea generation process are outlined in the discussion section of this paper.On the basis of a literature review, potential agricultural management practices able to mitigate GHG emissions and/or enhance carbon sequestration were coupled with each selected agriculture system (see box 2 for references). Table 1 shows the look-up table generated at the end of the LED idea generation process for Bangladesh. Crop Systems FAO 2002, Scopel et al. 2013, van Asten et al. 2011, Kassam et al. 2009, Omont et al. 2006, Thierfelder et al. 2013, Richards & Mendez 2014 Rice SystemsNext, the team used available data to estimate the size of the LED opportunities. Cropping area and livestock heads for key agricultural systems were analyzed to approximate the size of the LED opportunities. For example, the main GHG emissions source from agriculture in Bangladesh is the cultivation of paddy rice. In addition, this country accounts for 60% of the rice paddy area of FTF projects, suggesting that the impact of LED opportunities addressing this crop can be very effective at reducing emissions within the country. Regional evaluations were also carried out to scale up LED options for a given geographical area. For instance, the same LED practices in rice can also be potentially applied in Cambodia and Nepal (Asia).A short list of LED options can be drawn up from this stage of the LED option identification and prioritization process. The LED options consist of an agriculture system (crop or livestock), geography (national or regional), and a bundle of technical mitigation practices.  The LED evidence building stage enhances option refinement through knowledge and experience sharing, and facilitates ranking of options with stakeholders. In this action research project, a wide range of stakeholders from USAID and CCAFS engaged in discussions on evidence-based decision making. In addition to the original criteria outlined by CCAFS, the USAID stakeholders encouraged us to investigate a wider range of non-mitigation impacts.Specifically for productivity impacts, USAID encouraged evidence to be gathered on both aggregated farm profitability and disaggregated elements such as agriculture systems yields, resource use efficiency, and labor impacts. In addition, the Agency stressed that barriers and incentives should be considered within the value chain scale and regional-enabling environment.The discussion section presents the advantages of the current LED process and the areas for improvement.• LED idea generation takes into account food security and income generation from the beginning. This early focus on not only mitigation but also food security and income generation lends legitimacy to the overall prioritization process.• LED concepts developed within context of local socio/cultural and institutional systems.In the LED concept development stage, institutional factors and local systems are evaluated in order to bundle technical practices into country-and crop-specific LED concepts. This research approach recognizes the complex interactions surrounding agricultural practice change. When institutional conditions are incorporated into LED options, salience of the data improves.• Characterization of LED options provides evidence base for prioritization decisions. In action research, it is essential to provide evidence that is credible and legitimate in time for major decisions. In the final process phase, stakeholders play an active role in determining the criteria for prioritization and time is allowed to build evidence.• LED idea generation stage should formally integrate information from national agricultural growth objectives. Many of the countries studied have national objectives for agricultural growth. These plans are developed at a national level based on governments' resource policies and strategies. Our project did not account for these stated national objectives.• LED quantification methods need improvement. Quantification of opportunities is essential for weighing options for investment. Additional time and resources should be devoted to scale up of mitigation options.• Emissions estimation methods (FAO-Stat and EX-ACT) lack convergence. FAO uses a method for making a country's GHG inventory (top-down approach); EX-ACT evaluates the additionality of projects for mitigating GHG emissions (bottom-up approach). Greater convergence would be possible if somehow the two methods could be linked and estimate how much GHG emissions could be avoided by best practices or vice-versa (e.g., FAO adds information at farm-scale level). In addition, FAO-Stat should move forward and include emissions and removals by soils (even with high level of uncertainty), as most of the LED practices rely on soil carbon for reducing emissions.• Data collection (FAO-Stat) lack important information. FAO-Stat does not provide transparency to the practice level of some agricultural systems. Overall, there is a need for a new data source that provides information on inputs of major agricultural activities in a given country as well as land degradation and soil management types. It would help to narrow down the impacts of single-cropping and livestock systems and consequently, increase the confidence in building LED options.The INDCs indicate that countries are highly interested in mitigating climate change impacts from agricultural practices. Creating technical and policy options for development donors to invest in LED options could therefore have significant impact.We have outlined a process to identify and prioritize LED options in agriculture to achieve food security and economic development goals, with mitigation co-benefits. This process aims to support decisions about low emissions management practices and accelerate the scaleup of project investments. The method was developed in the course of a CCAFS action research project with USAID to inform LED options in their agriculture and food security portfolio.The identification and prioritization of LED options involved three sequential stages: idea generation, concept development, and evidence building. Each stage is designed to gather and analyze data that enable managers and stakeholders in particular to make informed evaluations. The first stage gathers data on not only mitigation potential but also food security and income generation, lending legitimacy to the idea generation process. The incorporation of institutional factors and local contextual systems in the LED concept development stage improves the concept's credibility and salience. In the final process phase, stakeholders are actively involved in determining the criteria for prioritization and building evidence.By bringing together institution-specific evidence covering both mitigation and nonmitigation benefits of LED, this process illustrates how a careful evidence-building process can increase the quality and relevance of outputs and legitimacy of the overall results.","tokenCount":"3242"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"03552f2f6a250fca75a5497bb7c902af","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/faa47184-753b-4b34-ada3-17c4ab8fe2fe/retrieve","id":"-132906532"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"cc656f46-4f7c-425e-86da-1094678ba2f2","pagecount":"23","content":"Digital transformation has created countless opportunities and approaches for training and data collection [1], supporting developing countries' agendas to analyze population and housing dynamics [2]. The challenging nature of data collection in these regions , such as the lack of accurate, updated district maps and poor telecommunication networks, has opened possibilities for computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) [3]. Even though the paper-and-pencil interviewing (PAPI) remains the most commonly used household surveys in developing countries [4]. Previous censuses have been marred by long data entry and processing time, poor handwriting or field officer errors and the potential loss of surveys through paper destruction [5,6]. CAPI can significantly improve quality of data, reduce processing time and address most of PAPI's limitations [7].Previous national housing surveys (NHS) and population and housing censuses (PHC) implemented in 1960,1970,1984,2000 and 2010 in Ghana relied on PAPI and face-to-face instruction to train trainers and field officers. However, the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), a body that oversees the efficient production and management of quality data for Ghana, introduced motivational information tools like gamification elements to complement face-to-face training and digital census as essential features of the 2021 PHC. However, there were challenges with access to ICT resources, not to mention the uneven access to ICT in different populations, districts and households [8].The general presumption is that for Ghana to get good economic, educational, health and international comparison data, ICT and advances in artificial intelligence should be prioritized [9]. In this regard, the use of digital censuses is to ensure efficient data collection, management and processing. The introduction of the geographical positioning system (GPS) is to capture the coordinates (location) of all structures to ensure complete coverage. Notwithstanding the novelty of ICT in PHC, this study examines the experiences of trainers and field officers whose training, performance and ease of use of digital census are critical to the success of collecting data on the socio-economic, demographic and living conditions of persons living in Ghana [10].This study aims to propose a framework for empowering digital census implementation. This framework will focus on successful training programs for data collection and the ongoing use of digital censuses for population and housing data collection. The chapter begins with a brief overview of Ghana's population censuses. It then identifies challenges faced in online training and digital census adoption during the 2021 PHC based on experiences of rural trainers and field officers. The study also explores potential concerns identified in the literature regarding digital census adoption and training delivery methods, including gamification. The underlying research question guiding this investigation is: How effective are online training, face-to-face instruction and digital census adoption in the context of Ghana's 2021 population and housing census. Limited research currently exists on integrating Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) into PHC. This study aims to contribute to this gap by sharing the benefits achieved, challenges encountered, and potential solutions to inform improved planning and implementation of future censuses.The Government of Ghana invested GHS521 million (approx. $43.4 m) to ensure the success of the 2021 population and housing census as recommended by the United Nations (UN). Since 1981, Ghana has been conducting population censuses at approximately ten-year intervals. Currently, five censuses after independence have been conducted, with 2010 being the latest. The 2010 population and housing census recorded a total population of 24.7 million. Following the census sequence, Ghana was supposed to conduct its PHC in 2020, but due to the novel COVID-19 pandemic, the exercise was rescheduled for the first half of 2021, with June 27, 2021 as the census night.The rationale for the periodic censuses in Ghana is to update the sociodemographic and economic data and further ascertain the population's structural changes over the last decade. The census gives a sense of the total number of persons and housing types in every village or town in Ghana. Such information is essential for government and local planning of educational, health and other social service needs. Therefore, the GSS adopted three phases for the census process-the pre-enumeration (planning stage), enumeration (data collection stage) and postenumeration phase (data processing, post-enumeration survey and dissemination stage). To streamline the collection of quality data from the enumerator end, a data scenario was developed (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1 Adapted data collection and reporting scenario [10] This secure data flow model (Fig. 1) ensures quality census data collection: after supervisors transmit data, it's monitored, cleaned, and stored in designated servers for current use, backup, and historical analysis by central processing teams.To commence the national exercise, the GSS set up a three-tier trainer of trainer groups, namely master trainers, national trainers and regional trainers at all levels of the sixteen regions of Ghana. In this regard, the master trainers train the national trainers, who train the regional trainers and finally, the regional trainers train the field officers (supervisors and enumerators). For the objective of this study, the regional trainers and the enumerators are the focus since they fall within the category of rural areas facilitators.Digital technologies are now deployed for training purposes in developing countries. However, research suggest that participants in online training programs in these regions are more likely to withdraw or not complete their training compared to their counterparts in developed countries [11]. This can be attributed to a lack of motivational features within the online systems that could encourage continued engagement [12,13]. Studies have shown greater improvement in training outcomes with face-to-face training sessions compared to online-only approaches, even though both methods can lead to sustained learning over time. Despite these mixed findings, blended learning, which combines online and traditional training methods, is considered to be the most effective approach [14]. Recognising this, and faced with the challenges of COVID-19 pandemic, the PHC adopted online training platforms with CAPI capabilities as a promising alternative.Based Gamification is a new concept, and developing countries are still coming to terms with its application and benefits [13]. Gamified online training is beneficial for engaging and motivating learners, but its effectiveness for meeting desired outcomes is contextualized and details mixed results [16].Gamification uses game elements and features like badges, points, rewards, scores, and instant feedback to promote training. This practice motivates learners to accomplish a task and engage in the activity. Aside from the motivational powers of gamification, it provides feedback on learner assessment for formative purposes and helps assess successful training outcomes [17]. Through learner assessment, gamification reveals the merits and shortcomings of the game design element deployed to the users.Gamification was incorporated into Ghana's PHC Field Officers Training to enhance field officers' training performance and engagement. However, only a few online training programs have incorporated gamification elements to assess and encourage training in Ghana, especially as a formative assessment for research and data collection [13]. Hence, a knowledge gap exists in the literature as regards the effect of using gamification for assessment. The present study examines the firsttime involvement of gamification elements (i.e., badges and points) in population and housing census training of field officers in Ghana. Figure 2 shows forty-one This study adopted a mixed-methods approach [18]. Initially, the study was to qualitatively survey the views of regional trainers and field officers towards the acceptance of online training tools for PHC. However, after interviewing and categorizing the participants' responses, we identified constructs similar to the works of [19]. The identified constructs were examined quantitatively to determine the use of online training tools such as CAPI tablets for PHC.A qualitative narrative inquiry approach was used to investigate the national and regional trainers' and enumerators' experience with the gamified online training and the practical CAPI session for the population and housing census, especially those in rural areas in Ghana. It should be noted that the national and regional trainers only had online training before face-to-face training with the CAPI-the reason being that GSS would consult them for future survey training. Hence their depth of statistical training was important. The enumerators, on the other hand, experienced only face-to-face training for the PHC. The central phenomenon in a qualitative study is the idea, concept or process being studied. Accordingly, the researcher learns more from the participants by exploring their experiences and critical incidents. Consequently, the data was collected through interviews.Quantitatively, to have a homogeneous group of participants for this study, we contacted the 40 respondents who partook in the earlier interview. All 40 participants contacted, responded and returned their questionnaires (24 online and 16 paper-based). The study employed purposive sampling to recruit participants based on 2021 PHC experience. Consequently, the 40 participants are justified since they effectively capture the variations and perspectives of the census within Ghana.Table 1 indicates the participants' profiles. The survey instruments were adapted from the [20] scale, while items on organizational influence were adopted from the [21] studies. Some of the constructs of UTAUT identified under the technological, individual, environmental and administrative context of this study form part of grounding proposed solutions to existing literature on technology adoption models and, hence, testing of the constructs.The researcher used interviews to understand the behavioral changes of the participants in the PHC. A semi-structured guide that comprised the guiding research questions was used to interview participants. Open-ended questions were used, which afforded the respondents space to provide their broad perspectives on the subject. The scope of the interviews was recurring themes from literature in general and those relevant to Ghana.Ten (10) regional trainers and field officers (supervisors and enumerators) were taken from two rural areas of the Eastern region of Ghana. All trainers and field officers assigned to the Eastern rural areas of Ghana formed the target population. Twenty (20) of the trainers and field officers were thus randomly selected to join the study. The trainers were basically from universities-some indicated teaching assistance and trained teachers, while the supervisors and field officers were professionally engaged in teaching, national service personnel, and trained nurses. The majority of the enumerators were unemployed graduates from universities, polytechnics and training and vocational colleges, while others were self-employed.The approval to commence research on the subject matter was approved by the district census officers, and their views on the research items were incorporated.Trainers and field officers were randomly contacted during the census period from May 20 to June 25, 2021. The study's objective was sent to the randomly selected respondents to seek their consent to be part of the study. An appointment was scheduled for each participant to give their consent to the study. The interview was conducted via voice call. Based on the identified constructs synonymous with the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) [19], the study proposes the following model (see Fig. 3) as the antecedent of online training and digital census use. Thus, assessing the identified constructs further aims to extend the UTAUT model by integrating organizational influence to examine the determinants that affect field officers' intention to use CAPI tablets and online training for PHC. The constructs identified include perceived ease of use and usefulness, facilitating conditions, social influence, and organizational influence as well as field officers' behavioral intention to use tablets in data collection.Performance expectancy: several studies confirm that users are likely to adopt technology if they perceive it as useful and promoting favorable outcomes [22]. Further, in the context of innovation or new technology adoption, extant literature confirms the positive relationship between performance expectancy and behavioral intentions [23]. In this regard, we hypothesize that:Effort expectancy: users prefer technologies with maximum benefits and are easy to use with less effort [19]. According to [24], effort expectancy is a strong predictor of behavioral intention to use innovation or new technologies in various individual or organizational contexts. Thus, we hypothesize that:Social influence is how an individual is influenced based on peer-group decisions to use a particular innovation. Extant literature supports social influence's impact on users' behavioral intention to use new technologies [24]. In this regard, we hypothesize that:Facilitating conditions: The trainees asserted that internet access and other training resources were essential to the success of PHC in Ghana. Thus, this study proposes the effect of necessary resources as a condition for conducting a successful PHC. Extant literature supports the relationship between facilitating conditions and users' behavioral intent to use new technologies [25]. We, therefore, hypothesize that:Organizational influence: Extant literature emphasizes how organizations influence results and users of new technologies [26]. Field officers similarly reported that the GSS expected them to be proficient in computerized data collection. This study introduces the concept of organizational influence as a novel construct within the UTAUT model, specifically addressing the context of technology adoption in Ghana. Investigating organizational influence in census emphasizes the importance of ensuring data integrity and accuracy and also improves the census process in building trust in government agencies. According to [26], competency increases the performance of users or employees in the data collection. In this regard, we hypothesize that:Figure 3 shows the proposed model for field officers' intentions to use online training and tablets during PHC.This section discusses the online training experience of regional trainers with game elements and their experience with computer-assisted personal interviewing in the 2021 population and housing census in Ghana. Almost all the indicators for effective CAPI use and the barriers identified in the literature review were found in the Ghanaian context of PHC. Table 2 shows a summary of the interviews conducted, which indicate the salient constructs for mapping future PHC. The study findings suggest that online training with gamification elements was ineffective for training compared to the in-person and interaction sections in Ghana's PHC. The trainers revealed a lack of cultural elements of the badges though getting the badges was a sign of accomplishment, reward and dedication to learning the PHC manuals online.Further, the field officers' experience with the CAPI improved the previous censuses conducted in Ghana. The CAPI practical was effective and easy to collect data, though there were challenges generating the GPS with the CAPI. The data was analyzed and transcribed using NVivo 11.0 and grouped into categories and sub-categories. To ensure transcription accuracy, the interviews were played severally and analyzed and transcribed verbatim. Also, to ensure confidentiality, the researcher used pseudonyms for each respondent. Table 1 shows the demographic characteristics of the participants.Game Elements Though the trainees felt a sense of accomplishment with the introduction of badges in the PHC training, the game elements were not tailored to meet their level of motivation. The game elements failed because a one-size-fits approach was used without considering the user characteristics. The future application should consider the user players and the kinds of game elements they feel accustomed to.Well, the game elements or badges that were displayed on the 2021 PHC Field Officers Virtual Training Platform did not motivate me that much. I liked it as an accomplishment badge, but the pictures on the badges did not communicate to me. I felt badges should be cultural to depict hardworking individuals in Ghana. [\"Eunice\" -Regional Trainer] Whenever I received the badge, I felt satisfied. However, I felt annoyed at the initial stage when I saw the number of completions of my colleagues. There were 40-45 tasks to be completed, and within three days, some trainees had completed more than 30 readings and assignments. I felt pressured initially, but it propelled me to catch up. [\"Silas\" -Regional Trainer] Sincerely, I did not feel any connection with the rankings and the badges awarded to me. I sometimes download it for downloading sake. However, seeing the badges was a sign of relief that I am drawing close to completing the field officer's manual. [\"Patty\" -regional Trainer]Cost Data for the virtual learning was a significant challenge for the participants. The cost of the data bundle per day for training was too much for the trainees.OK, what I can say about the data is that it is very expensive. Online training is more expensive than one can imagine. Though GSS decided to prefinance the data used per day, the amount was too small. They initially agreed to pay GHS50 but ended up paying GHS40 (approximately $7/day). Interesting, we spend 7 hours online per day, can you imagine? [\"Moses\" -Regional Trainer] Social Relatedness (Household Name) Most trainers felt a sense of relatedness and household-relatedness in online training, which affected their training and gave them a sense of belonging.The online training was one of the most memorable social learning I have experienced in my life. We hardly knew ourselves during the first three days though we were all from the same district (from the Eastern region of Ghana). Nevertheless, as time progressed, some household names became popular. They almost answered every question and raised their hands in all Zoom meetings (we used the household name because population and household census-PHC-brought us together). The fun of hearing some names made us know the image or personality behind every voice. One can imagine the joy and social relatedness when we met at the face-to-face training. In all, it positively affected my training behaviour and made me want to learn always as a team. [\"Joshua\" -Regional Trainer]Traditional and Online Training Most of the trainers preferred the two-week traditional mode (face-to-face) of training over the two-week online training sessions because of its effectiveness and high-level of participation.There is no way I can compare the power of traditional learning to online learning. Online training was difficult and distracting. I wish you lived with me -so much intrusion and family check-ups. When we camped at Koforidua for the face-to-face training, I spent more than two weeks on the online platform, with no practical experience. However, it did compliment the face-to-face teaching, such that most of the terms were not new to me. [\"Felix\" -Regional Trainer]Online training is too much work. I barely focused throughout the period. There was \"dumsor\" (light-out) while I was due to present at a point in time. The factors that prevent online learning are too much for us to adopt. At one point, I connected and left the phone while receiving a visitor. They had to call my phone to answer the question posed by the facilitator. [Foster -Regional Trainer] During the Zoom meetings, I had many internet disruptions. I barely completed a day successfully without the internet, not messing up the meeting. I am in a typical rural area, so I blame the organizers for considering all trainers as staying in the Greater Accra capital.[\"Irene\" -Regional Trainer]Most of the enumerators and supervisors indicated that the CAPI is very easy and fast for collecting data compared to the PAPI. Though some of them participated in yearlong surveys, this was their first time conducting a population and housing survey with CAPI.User Friendly An ample number of field officers quickly learned how to use the CAPI and navigate the tablet without difficulty because the features were like their smartphones. Other officers stated the convenience of using the CAPI instead of the PAPI.The digital census has made this year's PHC easy and faster as compared to the PAPI in previous censuses because it was straightforward to handle and use. This 2021 census is my third as an enumerator. My Android phone has similar features, so I did not expect challenges handling it. However, taking GPS is challenging because you might excuse yourself during the interview to take coordinates or information. Just imagine leaving the room during the interview to collect the information outside….It sometimes creates an awkward moment and a sign of mistrust. [\"Patience\" -Enumerator] For convenience's sake, handling the digital census is way better and easier than the PAPI. I can recall my experience in the last census -2010, where I listed almost 400 structures. So, that should tell you the number of questionnaires I was handling throughout the month. I do not think we will ever go back to PAPI for a national assignment again, maybe for small surveys like sanitation and agriculture. [\"Mercy\" -Enumerator] Social Interaction Most of the enumerators felt bonding and interaction among the facilitators and trainers when using the CAPI for practice. The interaction between enumerator-enumerator and supervisor-enumerator positively affected the effectiveness of the digital census use You know, during the face-to-face training, our facilitators grouped us into eleven groupseach group was ten trainers to begin the digital census practice. Out of the ten, one was made the supervisor who assigned us the enumeration area, and I felt that was the beginning of our social bond with digital census. Sometimes, you will hear a colleague making a joke about digital census exposing him because he could not fully cover my assigned area. Moreover, since we were all recruited from this district, bonding and establishing good working relationships with the digital census was easier. In all, it was a friendly exercise, and the same thing is what we are facing now at the Listing stage of the 2021 PHC.[\"Pauluto\" -Supervisor] Reduced Data Collection Time Majority of the field officers indicated that the PAPI would have consumed more time to complete the volume of questions. However, CAPI is robust enough to include built-in skip patterns and filters. For example, it skips fertility questions when a male responds.My first time using it, but I find it very useful and user-friendly with good skip patterns and auto-fill features. Digital census makes the work of an enumerator easier and helps us input much data within the shortest time. New data can also be aggregated and checked daily for consistency. The response time to input information on the digital census is swift, but the questions are many in this year's PHC. [\"Nana\" -Enumerator]The researcher employed the partial least squares using the SmartPLS to test the research hypothesis [27]. PLS is the most preferred statistical technique for smallto-medium-sized samples and a powerful tool for estimating the path coefficient and model parameters under non-normality conditions [28].The first stage assessed the reliability and internal consistency, as well as the convergent and discriminant validity. As shown in Table 3, the factor loadings of each item are significant, indicating that the values are all above the minimum threshold of 0.70 [29,30]. Also, Table 3 indicates that the average variance extracted values are all above the minimum acceptable value of 0.5 [29]. We assessed the reliability of the indicators using Cronbach alpha and composite reliability, and all the coefficient values were above the minimum threshold value of 0.70. The collinearity assessment was estimated using the variance of inflation factor (VIF). A VIF value of 5 or less shows no collinearity issue [27]. Table 3 shows that among the constructs, only organizational influence is slightly above the threshold of 5. The significance of the path coefficients is determined by the p-values, which represent the prediction of specific endogenous constructs by specific endogenous constructs. The R 2 value was 0.623, indicating a 62% prediction of the endogenous variables. This implies that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions and organizational influence jointly explained 62% of the variance for behavioral intention for a digital census. Since R 2 values of 50% are considered high in behavioral and technology adoption studies [19], 62% indicates a good model's predictive power for a digital census in a developing country. The effect size was also determined using f 2 . The f 2 values less than 0.02 proved there is no effect, while 0.02, 0.15 and 0.35 indicate small, medium and large effect sizes, respectively.The structural model generally predicted an acceptable fit since the standardized root mean square residual (SRMR) of 0.078 was below the required threshold of 0.08 [27]. The significant values shown in Table 4 indicate that four hypotheses were supported out of the five independent variables. The four supported factors are PE, SI, FC and OI, with p-values below the 0.05 threshold. Consequently, EE was rejected with a p-value greater than the 0.05 threshold. In other words, performance expectance, social influence, facilitating conditions and organizational influence significantly predicted behavioral intention to use online training and CAPI tablet for PHC. On the contrary, effort expectancy did not predict behavioral intention in PHC. The empirical data of the PLS approach also confirms that social influence (\uD835\uDEFD =0.781; P = 0.01) and organizational influence (\uD835\uDEFD =0.549; P = 0.00) are predominant factors that drive field officers' digital census intention.The empirical result regarding the determinant of field officers' intention to use online training for the census is that performance expectancy leads to technology adoption. This means that Ghanaians who tend to partake in PHC focus on the perceived usefulness and favorable outcomes of the digital census. In other words, when government statisticians and agencies responsible for PHC consider users perceived usefulness of the digital census, Ghanaian field officers are more likely to consider the CAPI and thus promote the collection of quality data. The results also indicate that effort expectancy does not have a significant direct effect on online training behavioral intention for PHC.As expected, our findings from Table 4 strongly indicate that social influence is positively related to behavioral intention to use. Thus, this study is consistent with previous literature on technology adoption [25]. Consequently, the results can infer that a high degree of intention to use digital census and online training is formed when Ghanaians develop social relatedness and influence during the training. The greater the social influence during the training, the more digital tools and online training use intention among the field officers.Findings of the PLS-SEM analyses also indicate that internet access and other training resources are essential facilitating resources that drive field officers' intention to use digital technologies in the census. In this regard, agencies responsible for PHC should provide all available resources on and off the field for the enumerators to avoid initial technology rejection. Finally, organization influence on digital census increases the likelihood of field officers' behavior intention to use digital technologies in PHC. This means that managers of PHC would have to develop strong organizational influence and attitude toward digital technologies in collecting data and also in training the field officers.Technology Asset Exposure Myth One of the major challenges mentioned by the enumerators is how the interviewers want to withhold information, especially when capturing data with the digital census. According to 45% of field officers, some households withheld information because they believed that they would be taxed or found out in the future if they provided accurate information to the officers. In Ghana, most people are conservative with their items to invade taxes and other responsibilities, which affect national surveys. For example, to evade higher electricity bills or fear of being exposed to the actual bills to pay, some interviewers would not list all the electrical gadgets in their household.My experience has been good so far. As you may know, using the digital tool makes work easier but scares some interviewers, especially when taking the GPS location. In taking the GPS, we must move to an open space to get the required threshold of 5. However, when that happens, the respondents feel you are capturing them for tax collection (examples of these locations are stores, bars, clubs, churches etc.). I think some information is withheld in typical rural areas where we cannot control what they think or know. [\"Sandra\" -Supervisor]Field officers complained about the limited time for the training, especially the field practice. While some accepted the two-week training as effective, others said the time was too short to learn all the nineteen chapters of the PHC and include field practice and economic survey questions.I hope you see the Field Officer's Manual. The facilitators were good at covering the full manual, but other groups might find it difficult to download all these materials for effective learning and practice. The disadvantage is that when the enumerator is not taught enough to understand the software, it becomes a disaster as quality data and complete coverage might be a challenge. Secondly, the training time frame was very short as I said, which most people could not understand enough. What you feed the system is what you will get. We know most trades in Ghana, like foodstuff sellers and dressmakers, regarding economic activities, but it was not easy to find them. It would have been prudent to have checkboxes ticked, and then move on, but that was not the case. Going through that long procedure to look for their professions is not a joke, my brother. But in the end, we provided respondents with the right professions. [\"Kwame\" -Enumerator] Internet and GPS Access Accessing the internet for syncing with headquarters and getting a suitable GPS threshold of five was one of the significant challenges mentioned.I presume you know the challenges with poor internet unless you are new in our district. The two main telecommunications that work best here are MTN and Vodafone. However, in my area, MTN has the best internet access. Unfortunately, I subscribe to Vodaphone, so I struggle very much during data synchronization with HQ unless I move to Kade (the district's capital). But with the GPS reading, some of my enumerators have complained to me, but I have no solution but to report to the district census officer. These are our main challenges in getting quality data. [\"Madison\" -Supervisor] Digital Census Challenge The respondents provided general challenges to the technology adoption and tablets used for collecting the data, which included screen misfunctioning, poor GPS coordinate reading, slow app and frequent app errors.My main barrier is that at times the screen turns out not working and as such slows work at times. It comes when it pleases, but I am told to come for a new one. [\"Vera\" -Enumerator]The best thing about the digital training is the about is the filters. Though it brings out errors, it sometimes does not detect some errors that it is understood to detect. Making it slow and confusing and also generating the GPS was a bit of a headache. [\"Millicent\" -Enumerator] The technology makes the work much easier and user-friendly, but many times runs very slow even after restarting it. Taking GPS coordinates is another hell of a time, sometimes over ten times before being able to read accurately. [\"Sammy\" -Enumerator] The application runs slow at your peak time. Also, I realized that GPS reading is a bit of a challenge when it is getting late. Overall, the use of the system is a good experience, but there's a difficulty when correcting unintentional mistakes. [\"Michael\" -Enumerator] The technology has made the work simple and smart... but my problem is when you mistakenly select ''yes household population'' and move forward, it will not allow you to come back and choose option No. I mean, the No will not appear again. For that, do you have the right to delete such a structure and redo it? You answer for me. [\"Rich\" -Supervisor] One thing I realized during the listing stage is that when two Enumerators in one EA are notified of an error in the system by the data management team, it is difficult to identify the error. Funny enough, our supervisor could not see the error either. So, how then do you know the error to correct? [Judith -Enumerator]Political Interference and Poor Recruitment Sixty percent of the participants indicated that the selection of field supervisors and enumerators did not follow laiddown procedures. Though assessment tests were conducted on three occasions, none of the tests were used for selection, as revealed by enumerators. Regional trainers revealed that they submitted a qualified field officer list to the district census officer. However, most of the qualified candidates were removed from the shortlist for the exercise. Thus, due to the limited competence of some field officers, poor total coverage and poor-quality data were recorded. There is a need to promote transparency in publicly reporting on census methodologies, standardized recruitment process and potential limitations.Four out of five census officers indicated that the inadequate financial package could affect the entire exercise, which ultimately may affect the quality of data collection. There were a series of petitions concerning the remuneration package addressed to the secretariat. Field officers, i.e., supervisors and enumerators, were paid approximately GHS 2520 and GHS 2950 (approx. $ 215 and 252) for the exercise. Establishing a union can give enumerators a collective voice in negotiating better wages and working conditions.Software Upgrade One in five field officers reported that the digital census did not have the latest CSEntry version, which slowed the exercise. This issue distorted training sections since all participants needed to be on the same page. There is a need to implement software version control practices for future data collection exercises.Based on the respondents' views, four categories were identified, namely: technological, individual, environmental and administrative context. Table 5 shows a summary of identified barriers and strategies for effective online training.During our interaction with regional trainers, supervisors, and enumerators, we identified several issues discussed in Table 5, technological, individual and environmental, that need to be solved to achieve effective digital census integration in training and collecting data. Based on our research output, we make seven recommendations to any country or institution interested in integrating digital censuses and digital technologies into training and data collection for massive national surveys (target of 30 million population and more). By conducting a mix of qualitative and quantitative results, we identified important themes that have the potential to enhance digital census research and practice. The first theme identified is the digital census capabilities (technology, i.e., online training) with the intended goals for the census activities. Providing enough details of the digital census functionalities to dispel the one-size-fits-all approach of online training systems. This study has shown that identifying the characteristics and capabilities of the field officers (FO) is essential to a successful census. Thus, futureFig. 4 Proposed model for enhancing digital census census programs need to investigate the various capabilities of the field officers and the learning system to reinforce the intended purpose of conducting PHC. It is also important to consider the country-level environment and the quality of field officers recruited. The second theme is to utilize the digital census capabilities and tools to initiate field officers-centric training approaches. This provides the field officers with the autonomy to develop training in different forms, such as interpersonal skills, self-paced training and self-awareness. The third is to coordinate the field officers' resources and needs and the objective of implementing a digital census. Thus, there should be an appropriate interplay between the source materials and how they can successfully achieve the goal of PHC. As shown in Fig. 4, this is a proposed model for enhancing digital census training in a developing country context.The study investigated the behavioral enablers and barriers of the digital census in Ghana by validating a research model and conducting an in-depth analysis. A qualitative and quantitative approaches were used to examine the issue of digital census.Qualitatively, the study found general challenges in household surveys to include political factors and poor remuneration, financial and remuneration constraints, issues with software upgrades and GPS access. All in all, the barriers and strategies can be classified into individual, technological, environmental and administrative contextual factors. Quantitatively, the study found performance expectance, social influence, facilitating conditions and organizational influence as significant enablers of field officers' intention to use digital census for PHC or NHS in a developing country.The digital census's introduction into the PHC has shown promising signs of collecting quality data. Most of the supervisors and enumerators revealed the effectiveness of the CAPI compared to the PAPI. However, future digital census use for PHC should address the challenges outlined in this study to achieve complete coverage.Theoretically, this study extends the adoption model by integrating organizational influence, which is an important determinant in examining the case of online training and data collection tools for national assignments. Thus, the relationship between organizational influence and behavioral intention has not been considerably studied. Consequently, the results of this study enhance existing knowledge in technology adoption by confirming the significance of integrating the user's attitudes and beliefs in online training and closing the digital divide in developing countries. Additionally, the findings from this study contribute to the advancement of prior research on online training by empirically testing the role of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions in Ghanaian field officers' online training intentions. The research explains 62% of the variance in users' intentions. This confirms the study's robustness of the UTAUT model [19] in a developing country context.Practically, in developing countries, our study identifies performance expectancy, social influence and organizational influence as the most significant predictors of field officers' intention to use online training and CAPI tablets to collect quality data and ensure complete coverage. Thus, our study presents some important strategies for other emerging countries that want to conduct population and housing censuses through digital technologies that are still in their infancy in developing countries. Specifically, we have shown that organizational influence can boost technology acceptance for national activities in the case of rural and urban dwellers in Ghana. This study also indicates that social influence and organizational influence are predominant factors driving individual digital census use.The generalization of the study is difficult due to the small sample size. The study focused on regional trainers' views of the in-person and online training and supervisors' and enumerators' perspectives on the use of CAPI in Ghana's 2021 population and housing census without including the voices of regional census officers, district census officers and district data officers managing the entire exercise. Further, the study participants were from two rural areas in the eastern region of Ghana, while Ghana has 16 regions with many field officers taking part in the census.Based on the analysis and review of relevant sources in this study, a recommendation is proposed for future household surveys in developing countries. We realized that recommendations for future PHC/NHS should cover best practices for more effective use of the CAPI system in NHS at different stages. Hence, the following key recommendations:(a) Embrace online self-enumeration: As developing countries continue to improve internet penetration, a secure and user-friendly online platform for citizens can enhance the quality of data collection throughout the year. Furthermore, logistical complexity and cost will be reduced, and this online activity boosts overall participation and empowers individuals with increased convenience. More IT literacy programs are needed to address the digital literacy gaps and ensure technology access in rural areas. As shown in Fig. 5, the recommendation framework for census entails three phases: the pre-enumeration phase-development of project documents and census instruments, procurement of goods and services, publicity, and recruitment; the enumeration phase-listing of structures, enumerating the entire population, publicity and return of census materials; and post-enumeration phase-data processing, postenumeration survey, census reports and dissemination. At the heart of this exercise is the resource allocation at the regional and district levels.With the huge amount of money and resources allocated to training national and regional trainers, the statistical bodies should retain these trainers for future NHS. Employing their services will reduce costs and ensure the continuity of training modules. However, the GSS must issue a training certificate and accomplishment to the trainers-to certify them for future programs. The same ideology can be applied to the supervisors and enumerators at the regional and district levels.Future national surveys and PHC virtual platforms should incorporate gamification elements that have cultural meaning and motivate users. This can be achieved when designers systematically examine the user characteristics, considering the context of the learners. Adopting one-size-fits-all game elements, which have been the case for most gamified systems, is a recipe for failure. Ghanaians are intrinsically attached to some game design elements, and designers and instructors must","tokenCount":"6551"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"d3517f62041a4a7edaae39e6061bde92","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/dcbcfd53-49cf-4e78-b5e0-0640328f58cd/retrieve","id":"242324964"},"keywords":["global warming","climate change","nitrous oxide emissions","genetic mitigation","soil nitrifier activity, nitrification control","biological nitrification inhibition, greenhouse gas emissions","agro-pastoral systems","pastures","field crops, BNI traits, BNI technology BNI-PS-opinion-CL-submit-2017.docx [Cover Letter] PlantScience-BNI-Opinion-2017-submitted.docx [Manuscript File] PS-BNI-opinion-Fig-1.pptx [Figure] PlantScience-BNI-Highlights-2017-submitted.docx [Highlights]"],"sieverID":"b216b7c0-331a-42cf-a354-5e0340f2686f","pagecount":"21","content":"The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)  believes that open access contributes to its mission of reducing hunger and poverty, and improving human nutrition in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture.CIAT is committed to creating and sharing knowledge and information openly and globally. We do this through collaborative research as well as through the open sharing of our data, tools, and publications.Prof. Thomas W Okita Review Editor -Plant Science Institute of Biological Chemistry Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-6340; Email: [email protected] Sub: Submitting the Commissioned critical 'Opinion' article for publication in 'Plant Science' journal Dear Prof. Okita: Please refer our earlier correspondence (your email dated 29th November 2016) suggesting commissioning of an \"Opinion\" article on BNI (a copy of the email is attached with this cover letter).Enclosed, please find the files of the manuscript titled 'Genetic mitigation strategies to tackle agricultural GHG emissions: The case for biological nitrification inhibition technology', authored by GV Subbarao, J. Arango, K. Masahiro, A.M. Hooper, T. Yoshihashi, Y. Ando, K. Nakahara, S. Deshpande, I. Ortiz-Monasterio, M. Ishitani, M. Peters, N. Chirinda, L. Wollenberg, J.C. Lata, B. Gerard, S. Tobita, I.M. Rao, H.J. Braun, V. Kommerell, J. Tohme and M. Iwanaga. I would like to suggest the following subject specialists as potential reviewers for this article.   ABSTRACT Accelerated soil-nitrifier activity and rapid nitrification are the cause of declining nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) and enhanced nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from farming. Biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) is the ability of certain plant roots to suppress soil-nitrifier activity, through production and release of nitrification inhibitors.The power of phytochemicals with BNI-function needs to be harnessed to control soilnitrifier activity and improve nitrogen-cycling in agricultural systems. Transformative biological technologies designed for genetic mitigation are needed, so that BNI-enabled crop-livestock and cropping systems can rein in soil-nitrifier activity, to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and globally make farming nitrogen efficient and less harmful to environment. This will reinforce the adaptation or mitigation impact of other climate-smart agriculture technologies.Agriculture has become the largest source of man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the planet [1]. It generates 14,000 Tg CO 2 .eq.yr -1 , about 24% of total GHG emissions [1]. To put this in perspective, CO 2 emissions from automobiles contribute to 14% of global GHG emissions [1][2]. A major portion of agricultural GHG emissions is associated with the production and use of nitrogen (N-fertilizers, based on life-cycle analysis), which is energy and carbon intensive [2]. It is ironic that nearly 70% of Nfertilizers applied to agricultural soils is lost and returned to atmosphere as oxides of N and N 2 (through microbial nitrification and denitrification processes), before the crops can absorb and assimilate it into plant protein with no net benefits to humans [3]. Nearly 80% of global emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a GHG 300 times more potent than CO 2 , comes from the production and utilization of N-fertilizers in agriculture [4].Providing farmers with new nitrogen-use efficiency options requires a major research and development effort, in combination with effective extension approaches.With global food demand projected to double by 2050, agricultural emissions will grow further, unless agriculture becomes climate-smart [1]. Annual N-fertilizer use is expected to reach 300 Tg by 2050; global N 2 O emissions will double compared with present levels and reach 7.5 Tg N 2 O-N in such a 'business as usual' scenario [4,5,6]. The Paris Agreement (PA) signed in 2015, set the goal to reduce GHG emissions by 80% from 2005 levels by 2050 to limit global temperature rise to <2°C [7][8]. Reducing GHG emissions from agriculture is thus critical to meeting PA emission targets [7].Development of fertilizer-responsive crops (e.g. semi-dwarf wheat, -rice, and maize) has transformed global cereal production, but inadvertently unleashed a cascading effect of N-pollution in the environment [8,9]. Farmers in many intensive production systems are being forced to apply more N-fertilizer to sustain higher yields. Selection and breeding under high N-input environments and crop intensification have resulted in the development of nitrate (NO 3 -)-responsive cultivars and high-nitrifying soil environments, leading to a decline in NUE (<30% at present) in crop production [3,[10][11]. Nitrate leaching and N 2 O emissions are an indication of weakening soil health (due to declining soil-carbon levels and shifts in soil microbial ecology conducive for accelerated nitrifier-activity) [10][11]. We need a course correction now to increase food production, whilst improving soil health and minimizing GHG emissions.Genetically enhanced mitigation technologies that are easily deployable and scalable, to reduce nitrification and N 2 O emissions, would make agricultural systems more Nefficient and reduce emissions. Biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) is the ability of certain plant roots to suppress soil-nitrifier activity, through production and release of biological nitrification inhibitors (BNIs) [3]. BNI is a natural plant behavior, found in certain climax ecosystems where plants and microbes compete fiercely for limited mineralized soil-N [12][13].We should learn from nature and introduce these biological mechanisms to manage N-cycling in agricultural systems. Plant roots produce BNIs to suppress nitrifier activity (which converts immobile soil-ammonium (NH 4 + ) to mobile soil-nitrate (NO 3 -)) and retain soil-N in NH 4 + form to facilitate plant absorption and transfer into immobile microbial/organic-N (Fig. 1) [3,10]. Soil-NO 3 -, once formed, is highly prone to leaching, and is also a substrate for soil denitrifying microbes that convert it into N 2 O, NO (nitric oxide) and ultimately N 2 gas [3] (Fig. 1) -a net loss for plant production. N 2 O is primarily produced during both nitrification and denitrification processes [3] and BNI function suppresses N 2 O emissions by reducing nitrification and limiting NO 3availability to denitrifiers (Fig. 1) [3,10]. The challenge is to redesign agricultural systems with crops and pastures that produce sufficient BNIs from root systems to suppress wasteful nitrification processes, increase N-flow to the plant and retention in soils, thus significantly improving nitrogen-use efficiency [3,14]. The power of BNI-enabled phytochemical secretions/additions from crop/pasture root systems should be unleashed to limit GHG emissions while sustaining future growth in food production.BNI technology exploits the understanding of BNI chemistry, and its impact on the soil microbiome, to develop genetic components that include BNI-enabled genetic stocks and genetic tools. These would facilitate introduction of BNI traits into major food and forage crops in the near future [3,10,[14][15][16][17][18]. Production and release of BNIs from plant roots require the presence of NH 4 + in the rhizosphere and soil-microsites where NH 4 + is present, which are also the hot-spots for nitrifier populations [3,10,14,19]. As the BNIs release from roots is localized (i.e. BNI release is confined to parts of the root system exposed to NH 4 + ) [14], the delivery of BNIs is thus essentially targeted to where there is a high probability of nitrifier-activity. In addition, sustained release of BNIs from root systems is functionally linked with the uptake and assimilation of NH 4 + , which acts as a switch mechanism for BNI function. This results in a more effective delivery of BNIs to soil-nitrifier sites in the field [20][21]. In addition, the diverse chemical structures of BNI molecules and their multi-mode of inhibitory action on Nitrosomonas, could provide a lasting-control over nitrifier activity in agricultural soils compared to synthetic nitrification inhibitors [3,22]. The inhibitory effect from synthetic nitrification inhibitors does not last more than a few weeks at the most (often less than a week) and their delivery in the field is fraught with many challenges. They are expensive to apply and are often ineffective in the field, which may explain the lack of their wide-spread adoption by farmers [23]. BNI technology is suitable for integrated crop-livestock and cropping systems.Brachiaria grasses are the most widely planted forage crops in the tropics with as many as 100 million hectares planted as pastures in Brazil alone [24]. Among forage crops tested, Brachiaria humidicola has the highest BNI-capacity and produces brachialactone (a powerful nitrification inhibitor) in its deep-root systems [14]. Each year, from root turnover alone, well-managed Brachiaria pastures could add 14 kg brachialactone ha -1 and enrich the soil-C by up to 5 t ha -1 [25]. In addition, nearly 2.6 to 7.5 million units of BNI-activity ha -1 d -1 (depending on the genetic stock) is released from roots, equivalent to annual additions of 6.2-18kg of nitrapyrin ha -1 (a synthetic nitrification inhibitor) [10,14]. Field studies with Brachiaria grasses showed that while they suppressed nitrification and N 2 O emissions [14], the reduced nitrifier activity has improved 15 N-retention in soils, 15 N-recovery and NUE of maize in an integrated maize-Brachiaria (crop-livestock) system for several years [26][27].Sorghum, a climate-smart cereal, releases sorgoleone from its roots, which mediates BNI-activity [15,28]. Genetic improvement for enhanced levels of sorgoleone release is one route to develop BNI-enabled cereal production [3,10]. Wheat, the most important food crop (grown on 240 million ha globally), uses about 20% of all fertilizer applied globally [16][17]. However, modern wheat cultivars do not have strong BNI-activity in their root systems [16][17]. Development of BNI-enabled wheat varieties using wild relatives or progenitors as sources of effective BNI-traits can be achieved using chromosome engineering [16][17].Wheat yield potential can be doubled from present levels to reach 20 t ha -1 , but requires substantial improvements in NUE to make this economically attractive. The potential for improving BNI-capacity in wheat, sorghum and Brachiaria pastures has been illustrated [3,[16][17][18].Mitigation strategies/technologies to reduce agricultural GHG emissions must be costeffective and politically feasible to implement if they are to be adopted widely to reduce costs and deliver benefits to society. For example, mitigation technologies such as alternate wetting and drying in paddy fields can be challenging to implement for social and political reasons [29]. Similarly, the patchy distribution of urine-N (a major N source) in grazed grasslands makes it difficult to control N-losses using synthetic nitrification inhibitors [6]. With 220 million cattle in Brazil alone [30], N-inputs from urine are estimated at 12.8 Tg N y -1 (based on the assumption that the average cow excretes 160 g N in its urine per day) and nearly 90% of this N is lost due to rapid nitrification and denitrification [3,6]. BNI-enabled pastures can effectively suppress these nitrification associated N-losses [6,14]. When bovine urine was applied to high-BNI B. humidicola (CIAT 679) pastures in the field, N 2 O emissions were 60% less compared to low-BNI Brachiaria (Brachiaria hybrid 'Mulato') pastures [31]. In Brazil, the potential impact on N-losses and N 2 O emissions from bovine urine N-inputs that may result from replacing low-BNI and/or degraded Brachiaria pastures with high-BNI Brachiaria pastures could be high. BNI-technology, could become an important piece in the puzzle to render agriculture more nutrient and resource-efficient, while protecting the environment. Breeding BNI-enabled food crops and forages and integrating these BNI-enabled components into crop-livestock systems could be the key genetic mitigation option to reduce N 2 O emissions. This genetic mitigation technology can be deployed without additional cost to the farmers, and is easy to adopt and scalable, as it does not require specialized or additional farm equipment or changes in water management.The PA came into force in November 2016; COP22 (Conference of Parties; organized in Marrakech, Morocco) initiated deliberations to assess technological options (i.e. those available or that can be developed in the near future) and develop the required policy framework to advance implementation of the PA agenda. Breeding crop varieties with BNI-traits and development of BNI-enabled production systems may take up to 30 years (that includes delivery, time for adoption and for deployment) and requires a major change in the direction of agricultural research. It could be funded from part of the earmarked funds (i.e. about 150 billion US$ per annum) to implement the PA agenda. A policy decision at this stage is thus necessary to identify suitable potential technologies that can transform the agricultural sector by improving NUE and facilitate tightening of N-cycling in agricultural systems to reduce GHG emissions; BNItechnology could be considered as one of the key biological options.Current agricultural practices need transformative changes. Other sectors, e.g. industry, energy production and transport are making major progress in increasing efficiency (thereby reducing GHG emissions), due to technological advances. New biological technologies must be developed for the agriculture sector to improve soil-N residence time and reduce N-losses to improve N-efficiency, which requires a tight control over soil-nitrifier activity. In addition, a closer coupling of crop and animal husbandry is needed to facilitate the recycling of organic-N through agricultural soils and reduce annual increases in N-fertilizer use. Nearly 175 Tg of fixed-N (biologically fixed-N from legumes + industrially fixed-N as N-fertilizer) enters into agricultural systems annually, but <1% of this Nr (reactive-N) is retained in human bodies. The remainder is returned to the atmosphere through nitrification and denitrification processes (as NO x and N 2 gas, strongly impacting human health, ecosystem functions, and contributing to climate change), which in turn drives year-on-year increases in N-fertilizer application to sustain food production [3,10]. The economic value of this wasted Nr alone from agricultural systems is estimated at US$ 81 billion per year [9]. For example, the European Union, which consumes only 11 Tg Nr (N-fertilizer) annually, faces major challenges from N pollution on human health and ecosystems in economic-terms that reaches US$ 102-320 billion y -1 [32]. When considering agricultural production in low and middle-income countries with high population growth rates, global damage to ecosystems and human health from Nr pollution could therefore be enormous. We should not treat agriculture as merely a commodity-producing industry with profit as the sole motto, but manage agriculture as part of a larger ecosystem that provides lifesupport and services to human society. We need to ask ourselves why is 99% of the Nr that enters into farming systems each year allowed to return to the atmosphere [33], without being productively rerouted through agricultural soils and cycled back into sustainable agri-food systems.A fundamental shift is needed in the way Nr is managed in agricultural systems to curtail the increasingly insatiable 'soil-hunger' for N fertilizers. This requires the introduction of novel BNI-traits into main-stream breeding, coupled with changes in crop management and integrated crop-livestock systems to limit soil-nitrifier activity.Suppressing soil-nitrifier activity can have a cascading effect on soil-N retention, soil organic matter buildup and shifts in microbial ecology that, over time, can help improve soil health [3,10]. The second Green Revolution must integrate plant traits that improve soil health, in addition to traits that enhance yield potential and stability. While the scientific goals of using BNI for a better NUE are inextricably linked to the amelioration of the worst predictions of GHG production and potential changes in climate, few farmers will change their practices for the altruistic goals of reducing their C-footprint and N 2 O generation. However, the bottom line of protecting biologically fixed or synthetic-N supplies through BNI-technologies means that less N-fertilizer is required for the same yield, and the gross excesses of some practices can be reined in by  ","tokenCount":"2484"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"baf64fffa0e9922a9918c8a03eb6b1f1","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/eba6dc1f-48e4-4d19-9721-e88a60aacd10/retrieve","id":"-1294619397"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"60c30d0f-7c54-41bc-b05f-1a52e016b41b","pagecount":"1","content":"We thank farmers and local partners in Africa RISING sites for their contributions to this research. We also acknowledge the support of all donors which globally support the work of the CGIAR centers and their partners through their contributions to the CGIAR systemHundreds of households can benefit from feed packages based on locally available feed resources for improved ruminant production and can also take advantage of opportunities of emerging feed markets to increase their income generation and food security.• To estimate forage and crop residues availability across seasons as feed resources to improve livestock productivity. • To determine types of feed sold and their price across seasons.• Estimation of available forage was conducted across seasons {Early dry (Nov-Jan), late dry (Feb-Apr), early wet (May-Jul), and main wet (Aug-Oct)} in communal pasture. Crop residues yield was estimated at crop maturity. Quadrat pasture yields estimation method was used (Nitis, 1997) for data collection in 9 AR communities in northern Ghana. In each community, 8 quatrats samples were randomly taken in each season in all locations. • Emerging feed markets were surveyed in Tamale, Bolgatanga and Wa markets to determine feed types and prices of feed sold. Three samples of each feed sold were bought per market in each season.• The crop residues yields are presented in Figure 1. Sorghum straw yield was 8.5 tons DM/ ha and highest (P<0.05) of all the crop residues whereas cowpea residue was lowest (1.8 tons DM/ ha). • Estimated quantity of available forage in grazing lands differed significantly (P<0.05) across seasons (Figure 2). Early dry season had the highest value of 3.08 tons DM/ha and early wet season recorded the lowest (0.56 tons DM/ha). • The feedstuff sold in the emerging feed markets are in Plate 1. Groundnut and maize bran were the commonest feed in all the markets surveyed. • The mean price (GHS 1.00 /Kg DM) of cowpea haulm was highest (P<0.05) and rice bran had the lowest price (GHS 0.12/Kg/ DM) . Generally feed prices were higher (P<0.05) in early and late dry seasons.Evaluation of feed resources helps to guide the development of effective strategies to improve nutrition, feed use efficiency and livestock productivity based on locally available feed resources.Plate 1: Assorted feedstuffs on sale at the feed markets Partners","tokenCount":"377"}

data/part_5/0532107475.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"71a1a2a1b37a688a4149e14004098e62","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/ff3a5d49-53f8-4c00-809d-a0678d7311e1/retrieve","id":"632170717"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"d5f79533-0b60-472a-b07b-9cb4660c5125","pagecount":"18","content":"consorcio mundial de investigación para un futuro sin hambre, dedicado a reducir la pobreza, contribuir a la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional y mejorar los recursos naturales.La producción de alimentos es uno de los principales impulsores de la pérdida de biodiversidad, incluida la agrobiodiversidad, una pérdida sin precedentes a nivel global. 1,2,3 La agrobiodiversidad es la diversidad de especies o variedades de cultivos, tanto en chacras como en dietas. Las pérdidas de agrobiodiversidad se producen debido a la creciente homogenización de las variedades de cultivos, las razas de ganado y los sistemas de producción, impulsada por la globalización de los mercados, las dietas y las cadenas alimentarias asociadas.La erosión de la agrobiodiversidad ocurre en paralelo con una pérdida de diversidad dietética para muchas poblaciones. Los sistemas alimentarios mundiales dependen cada día más de un número cada vez menor de especies, variedades y razas, 4,5 lo que lleva a una diversidad dietética reducida y contribuye a la desnutrición que sufren billones de personas. En contraste, la conservación efectiva y el uso sostenible de la agrobiodiversidad pueden proporcionar una serie de ventajas para los productores y consumidores, entre ellas: permitir a los consumidores elegir alimentos diversos y saludables; el estímulo de las economías rurales y urbanas; y el mantenimiento de las prácticas culturales y los conocimientos tradicionales. La conservación y el uso sostenible de la agrobiodiversidad también pueden desempeñar un papel importante en el mantenimiento de las técnicas agrícolas tradicionales y los sistemas de conocimiento indígenas. 6,7 Los programas públicos de compra de alimentos escolares son una poderosa herramienta de reducción de la pobreza al tiempo que promueven la seguridad alimentaria y la nutrición. 8 Se estima que tales programas atienden a 368 millones de niños, todos los días en todo el mundo, y operan en casi todos los países de ingresos medios a altos, así como en 70 de los 108 países de bajos ingresos. 9,10 La demanda institucional de tales programas de compra puede impulsar la generación de ingresos al proporcionar un mercado estable y predecible para los productores, al mismo tiempo que fortalece la seguridad alimentaria tanto para los consumidores como para los productores de los alimentos adquiridos. 11,12 Además de ofrecer múltiples beneficios nutricionales, que se magnifican para los más desnutridos 13,14,15 , los programas de comidas escolares, con un enfoque en la agrobiodiversidad, pueden impulsar las transiciones en la agricultura familiar, de sistemas mínimamente agrobiodiversos e intensivos en insumos, a sistemas agrícolas más agrobiodiversos. 16 La compra de alimentos es la actividad que genera mayor impacto ambiental dentro del sector de los servicios alimentarios debido a su influencia sobre la producción y distribución de alimentos. 17 Los factores de impacto clave incluyen el nivel de abastecimiento local, el grado de uso de productos orgánicos, los tipos de composición del menú (por ejemplo, evitando los menús de carne asociados con altas emisiones de CO 2 ) y los niveles y el manejo de los residuos de alimentos. Por lo tanto, las organizaciones públicas y privadas que participan en la contratación pueden considerarse que ocupan una posición sólida para apoyar el desarrollo sostenible y mejorar la economía local a través del abastecimiento sostenible, al tiempo que crean efectos indirectos en los hogares privados.Sin embargo, a pesar del creciente reconocimiento de los vínculos entre los sistemas alimentarios, la salud y la sostenibilidad 18,19,20,21 , el potencial de utilizar dichos programas de compras para promover la sostenibilidad de la agrobiodiversidad en línea con los instrumentos de política intergubernamentales (por ejemplo, los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible, el Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica y el Tratado Internacional sobre los Recursos Fitogenéticos) sigue estando en gran medida inexplorado. Además, la mayoría de los programas de compra pública de comidas escolares en todo el mundo aún no han considerado la agrobiodiversidad y la diversidad dietética en las evaluaciones de sus impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales. Esto plantea un gran desafío para evaluar el potencial de integración de la agrobiodiversidad en los programas de compra pública de comidas escolares.Con el fin de facilitar las transiciones hacia la sostenibilidad de los programas de compra pública de alimentos, la Alianza de Bioversity International y el CIAT está desarrollando una herramienta de apoyo a la toma de decisiones para evaluar y monitorear los impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de los diferentes escenarios de compra pública de alimentos. Tal herramienta \"Aliméntame Sosteniblemente\" (AMS) puede ayudar a construir una base de evidencia más confiable para los responsables políticos, los gerentes de compra de alimentos y otros actores claves interesados para abordar los desafíos y oportunidades a fin de mejorar los resultados de sostenibilidad y seguridad alimentaria de los programas de compra pública, inclusive de comidas escolares.Aquí informamos sobre los primeros pasos hacia el desarrollo de dicha herramienta Aliméntame Sosteniblemente (AMS) que tiene potencial de aplicabilidad global. La herramienta AMS se ha aplicado inicialmente en Perú, ya que Perú proporciona un buen estudio de caso, siendo un país megadiverso y un centro de origen para cultivos de importancia mundial que apoyan los medios de sustento de la vida de los pobres. También es un país en transición nutricional, donde se necesita una mayor diversidad dietética para garantizar una nutrición óptima durante la infancia. 22 Perú cultiva 184 especies de cultivos nativos que a su vez tienen cientos de variedades. Estos incluyen cultivos básicos clave como la quinua, la cañihua, el amaranto, el maíz, chocho o tarwi, las papas y otros tubérculos. Sin embargo, muchas variedades de estos cultivos se consideran \"severamente amenazadas\". 23 Por ejemplo, casi ninguna variedad tradicional de kiwicha (amaranto) de color se cultiva ahora en la región de Cusco, ya que han sido reemplazadas por dos variedades blancas mejoradas. 24 Sin embargo, las variedades tradicionales desplazadas pueden tener importantes atributos nutricionales, como un alto contenido de hierro, y podrían desempeñar un papel en la lucha contra las altas tasas de desnutrición crónica infantil (7,3-25,6% en niños menores de 5 años) y anemia (33-76% en niños 0-36 meses) 25,26 . La generación de una demanda sarah-watts/ plantagbiosciences.org sostenible de variedades de cultivos amenazadas y altamente nutritivas a través de su incorporación a los programas públicos de compra de alimentos permitiría al Perú cumplir con una serie de compromisos legislativos nacionales (véase el Cuadro 1) para apoyar a las comunidades agrícolas y mejorar la salud pública y la nutrición, al mismo tiempo que se conserva la agrobiodiversidad. Más recientemente, esto ha involucrado la Ley # 31071 que se relaciona con \"Compras Estatales de Alimentos de Origen de la Agricultura Familiar\", que tiene como objetivo mejorar la economía de la agricultura a pequeña escala, mediante la promoción del consumo de alimentos que ella produce, al mismo tiempo que contribuye a la seguridad alimentaria y proporciona alimentos saludables para el Perú y el mundo. La Ley exige que las entidades del sector público adquieran al menos el 30% de sus necesidades anuales totales esperadas, de alimentos provenientes de la producción agrícola familiar.Qali Warma (\"Niño/a Saludable\") es el programa de comidas escolares que se estableció en 2012 bajo el Ministerio de Desarrollo e Inclusión Social (MIDIS) y que actualmente tiene un presupuesto anual de PEN 1,46 mil millones por año (aproximante USD 440 millones). Qali Warma trabaja en las 25 regiones de Perú, proporcionando desayunos a niños de 3 a 12 años a nivel de educación inicial y primaria -así como almuerzos, inclusive a todas las escuelas de la región amazónica. En 2017, atendió a 3,7 millones de estudiantes en todo el Perú. Qali Warma distribuye principalmente alimentos no perecederos, incluidos artículos altamente procesados (ver Cuadro 2). 27,28,29,30 CUADRO 1 Ejemplos de legislación peruana de relevancia para la integración de agrobiodiversos y alimentos en la adquisición de comidas escolares 31,32  Las escuelas reciben uno de dos tipos de comidas: las hechas con alimentos no perecederos que requieren preparación en la escuela, llamados \"productos\", y los alimentos listos para comer llamados \"raciones\". Los productos se entregan mensualmente, mientras que las raciones se entregan diariamente. Solo las escuelas en las ciudades reciben raciones, y solo los pueblos y las comunidades rurales reciben productos. En términos generales, los desayunos Qali Warma consisten en leche con un grano (por ejemplo, avena, quinua, amaranto), una galleta o pan, o arroz o fideos con proteína animal. Los almuerzos consisten en un grano (arroz o fideos) con legumbres, tubérculos o granos andinos con una proteína animal.Qali Warma tiene como objetivo garantizar servicios de alimentación culturalmente apropiados a los beneficiarios durante todo el año escolar, mejorar la asistencia a clase, fomentar la matriculación escolar y promover mejores hábitos alimentarios.En el contexto peruano, se han realizado evaluaciones del impacto de programas de desayuno escolar en términos de dieta, asistencia y conocimiento. En Huaraz, la participación en el programa aumentó la ingesta de energía en un 15,2%, la proteína en un 16,1% y el hierro en un 60%; mientras que en las escuelas rurales de Ayacucho, Apurímac y Huancavelica, se identificó un efecto positivo en la asistencia a la escuela y la reducción de las tasas de deserción escolar, aunque se redujeron las horas de estudio dado el tiempo que los niños pasaron preparando y consumiendo su desayuno. 33,34,35 También hay cierta evidencia que sugiere que el programa Qali Warma está contribuyendo al cierre de las brechas educativas al aumentar la memoria a corto plazo de las niñas. 36 También, los impactos del programa son mayores entre los niños que no consumen desayuno en casa. Además, Qali Warma genera importantes ahorros (10%-17%) del gasto mensual de consumo en los hogares de los niños participantes. Sin embargo, Francke y Acosta [1] (2020) 37 notan que el consumo de Qali Warma solo contribuye con el 16,7% del requerimiento de hierro, mientras que el 93% de usuarios obtiene un aporte de hierro menor al esperado y no se encuentran efectos significativos sobre la anemia ni sobre la desnutrición crónica infantil. Una posible explicación sería la sustitución de alimentos entre la escuela y el hogar, con el agravante de que el desayuno en casa tendría más hierro y proteínas que el de QW. Francke y Acosta sugieren que los menús de QW deberían ser revisados si se considera que su objetivo es afrontar problemas nutricionales como la desnutrición crónica infantil y la anemia.Si bien tales estudios se han centrado en los impactos educativos y de salud, existe una literatura limitada relacionada con los impactos ambientales de dichos programas o de los patrones dietéticos / sistemas alimentarios en Perú; aunque Vásquez-Rowe et al.(2017) 38 proporcionan estimaciones de CO 2 equivalente (CO 2 eq) para una gama de productos alimenticios peruanos (ver abajo para más detalles).Tales impactos pueden ser significativos, sobre todo porque a pesar de tener un mandato para comprar localmente y apoyar a la agricultura familiar, las decisiones de compra pública de Qali Warma a la fecha resultan en que una gran proporción de sus compras es de grandes empresas en lugar de productores locales.Por ejemplo, se alega que un importante distribuidor de leche en Perú construyó una planta en Lima en su totalidad para abastecer las compras de leche de Qali Warma; mientras que según el USDA, 39 Perú ha [1] Designado Ministro de Economía y Finanzas en 2021.sarah-watts/ plantagbiosciences.org importado aproximadamente 17% de su producción de leche. Las preocupaciones sobre la calidad/inocuidad de los alimentos y las capacidades limitadas de la comunidad agrícola para cumplir con los requisitos administrativos de Qali Warma juegan un papel en esto.Con la entrada en vigor de la Ley #31071 de compras públicas y la declaración del candidato (ahora Presidente) Pedro Castillo que \"el presupuesto de Qali Warma debe estar destinado a garantizar que lo que comen los niños es lo que produce la comunidad\" 40 , parece cada vez más probable que habrá cambios donde se incluyan más productos de la agrobiodiversidad local. De hecho, ya hay programas piloto de comidas escolares en marcha que buscan aumentar la proporción de alimentos adquiridos localmente (ver el Cuadro 3 para un ejemplo en Junín). Estos programas piloto también brindan la oportunidad de realizar un análisis comparativo en relación con el escenario de \"negocio como siempre\", con el objetivo de mejorar la sostenibilidad y la diversidad dietética de los programas de alimentación escolar y otros programas de compra pública del Perú.Este tipo de mejoras podrían contribuir a una serie de beneficios de reducción de la pobreza y la malnutrición, así como a los impactos ambientales, en particular contribuyendo a los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible 2, 4, 10 y 12. Sin embargo, para obtener tales beneficios, existe una necesidad urgente de mecanismos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones que puedan proporcionar una base de evidencia que se puede utilizar para dirigir los impactos y los resultados.La herramienta AMS busca construir sobre una serie de herramientas existentes de evaluación de sostenibilidad del sistema alimentario y las comidas escolares. 43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50 Estas herramientas han tratado de identificar buenas prácticas, áreas de mejora y medidas específicas para aumentar la sostenibilidad alimentaria. Si bien no existe una definición acordada de lo que constituye un alimento sostenible, los tipos de indicadores de sostenibilidad utilizados por tales herramientas de evaluación comúnmente cubren las dimensiones nutricionales, ambientales, económicas y sociales (incluida la gobernanza y la cuadro 3Uso de la Certificación del Sistema de Garantía Participativa (SGP) en Junín, Perú 41,42 Un programa piloto en Junín ha agregado productos frescos de chacras locales a la distribución convencional de alimentos no perecederos. En 2019, 109 escuelas con un total de 7.950 estudiantes recibieron este servicio. El programa cuesta PEN 252.000 (aproximadamente USD 74.400). Los productos son adquiridos por los comités de alimentación escolar o por los municipios, complementando la entrega convencional de alimentos no perecederos. La política actual de Qali Warma-Junín es alentar a los municipios a comprar productos, porque los municipios pueden responsabilizar a los agricultores y mantener registros de los alimentos comprados y de quiénes los compran.Los 220 agricultores participantes están organizados en cooperativas que cuentan con la certificación SGP (Sistemas de Garantía Participativa). Las credenciales necesarias para la certificación varían según el país o la región, pero en el caso de Perú, la certificación SGP se basa en la Ley #29196. El gobierno peruano reconoció la validez de la certificación en una modificación de la Ley en 2019. mano de obra) de los sistemas alimentarios, por lo que incorporan aspectos de producción, distribución, aprovisionamiento, consumo y residuos.Los indicadores ambientales claves normalmente refieren, inter alia, a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero/uso de energía, la contaminación del aire, el uso de la tierra, el uso del agua, la salud del suelo, el ciclo de nutrientes, el uso de agroquímicos, el origen de los alimentos/abastecimiento local, la pérdida/desperdicio de alimentos y el bienestar animal. Los indicadores más estrechamente asociados con la agrobiodiversidad incluyen las relacionadas con la conservación de los servicios ecosistémicos, la diversidad (tanto de plantas y animales domesticados como silvestres) y las semillas.A pesar de la existencia de tales indicadores, muchas de estas medidas de agricultura sostenible no se están recogiendo, o no se están recogiendo con precisión o regularidad. 51 Este es también el caso en Perú. Si bien varios de estos indicadores ya son de uso común o se pueden obtener de bases de datos existentes (CENASA, Qali Warma), los datos de algunos de los indicadores aún no se recopilan o disponen de forma rutinaria. Debido a estas lagunas de datos, la herramienta de apoyo a la toma de decisiones AMS se está desarrollando en fases, incluyendo cada vez más indicadores en línea con los esfuerzos de recopilación de datos y su disponibilidad, lo que también permitirá que el método general se refine con el tiempo. Tales enfoques por fases se han aplicado comúnmente en el desarrollo de otros tipos de índices de sostenibilidad.Durante la Fase I (Desarrollo de Conceptos, a la que contribuye este documento), se describe la necesidad de una herramienta AMS, se describe la herramienta y se aplica a un solo indicador para el cual los datos están fácilmente disponibles. Estos hallazgos iniciales se utilizan para promover un proceso de diálogo con los actores claves interesados (como representantes gubernamentales, gerentes de compra de alimentos, asociaciones de agricultores y escuelas, empresas del sector privado y ONG) con el fin de guiar el desarrollo de la herramienta AMS.Como parte de este proceso, se espera que se puedan articular escenarios alternativos de compra pública de alimentos, acordándose una lista de indicadores clave para evaluar su sostenibilidad (varios de los cuales pueden adaptarse de los ≈120 indicadores enumerados en la Evaluación de Sostenibilidad de los Sistemas de Alimentación y Agricultura de FAO, 52 entre otras fuentes), se discutieron los desafíos de accesibilidad de los datos y se identificaron posibles ubicaciones de estudios de casos para las aplicaciones piloto de la herramienta AMS de apoyo a la toma de decisiones.Con el fin de seleccionar ubicaciones de estudio de caso para poder contrastar y comparar una gama de prácticas y menús de compra pública de alimentos, se puede considerar y evaluar la siguiente gama de escenarios utilizando un modelo matemático (programación lineal/ optimización):y Negocio como siempre: solo productos no perecederos, alta cantidad de alimentos procesados.y Aumento de la compra local, incluyendo productos frescos (por ejemplo, el caso Junín).y Agrobiodiversidad amigable -incorporación de especies olvidadas (NUS) y variedades de cultivos tradicionales amenazadas.Con respecto a la disponibilidad de datos, si bien las medidas de calidad de los alimentos (como el contenido de calorías, proteínas y hierro) y los costos ya están calculados por Qali Warma o por el Centro Nacional de Alimentación y Nutrición (CENAN), será necesario generar otros datos de indicadores. Por ejemplo, los cálculos existentes de la Evaluación del Ciclo de Vida (ACV) pueden necesitar ser adaptados al contexto peruano para estimar las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y el uso de agua de riego, mientras que los estudios al nivel de chacra serán necesarios para evaluar muchas de las medidas relacionadas con la diversidad. Por lo tanto, la Fase II (implementación inicial) implicará la recopilación de datos adicionales existentes, mientras que la Fase III (implementación en profundidad) se prevé que incluya la generación de los datos primarios necesarios para poder llevar a cabo plenamente una evaluación de sostenibilidad.En este documento de políticas en síntesis, realizamos un análisis inicial centrado en evaluar la huella de emisiones de CO 2 eq de las comidas Qali Warma.sarah-watts/ plantagbiosciences.orgPara realizar un análisis inicial, se han utilizado diferentes fuentes de información. Estas incluyen:1. La lista de recetas aprobadas por Qali Warma en 2014 que incluye datos sobre los diferentes tipos de desayunos (raciones y productos) y almuerzos, así como los ingredientes que se utilizan, sus cantidades y medios de preparación (ver Figura 1 para un ejemplo).Figura 1: Ejemplo de menús de comida Qali Warma 2. Tablas de Composición de Alimentos Peruanos (ver Figura 2) que proporcionan información sobre cada uno de los ingredientes del recetario de Qali Warma en términos de su (i) energía (kcal/Kj), (ii) agua (g), (iii) proteína (g); (iv) grasa total (g); (v) hidratos de carbono (g): (vi) calcio (mg), (vii) fósforo (mg), (viii) zinc (mg) y (ix) contenido de hierro (mg). Cuando un ingrediente no era idéntico al mencionado en el libro de recetas, se utilizaba un valor sustituto adecuado.  3. Datos disponibles sobre el número de beneficiarios de los diferentes programas sociales a nivel distrital extraídos de la base de datos InfoMIDIS [2] mantenida por el Ministerio de Desarrollo e Inclusión Social (MIDIS).4. Las estimaciones de la huella de emisiones de CO 2 eq de los patrones dietéticos en el Perú, calculadas por Vásquez-Rowe et al., 53 quienes utilizan una medida del Potencial de Calientamiento Global (PCG) basada en un enfoque de Evaluación del Ciclo de Vida usando datos de artículos e informes científicos sobre la producción de alimentos, así como el uso de datos primarios vinculados a la composición de las dietas del Instituto Nacional de Estadística del Perú (INEI). La Tabla 1 muestra el valor de CO 2 eq en kg resultante de la producción de una gama de productos alimenticios que se encuentran en las comidas Qali Warma. [2] http://sdv.midis.gob.pe/infomidis/#/ 5. Para calcular la cantidad de CO 2 eq/kg asociada al transporte se usó la \"Guía para el Uso Eficiente de la Energía y el Diagnóstico Energético\" del Ministerio de Energía y Minas del Ministerio de Energía y Minas. 54 6. Con el fin de evaluar la huella media de CO 2 eq de cada tipo de producto alimenticio utilizado por Qali Warma, la información del libro de recetas de Qali Warma Costa Norte se transformó en una base de datos como se muestra en la Tabla 1. Utilizando el código de producto que aparece en las Tablas de Composición de Alimentos Peruanos, es posible determinar los kg de CO 2 eq para cada tipo de desayuno y almuerzo. Esto fue combinado con los datos de InfoMIDIS, MIDIS (2018) 55 y ENAHO [3] respecto el número de beneficiarios diferenciados por nivel escolar (23%-30 % preescolar y 70%-73 % primaria) en los cuatro departamentos que forman el foco de este análisis, así como el porcentaje relativo de productos (75%) y raciones (25%) consumidos.En cuanto a la cantidad de CO 2 eq emitida por el transporte de cada alimento, el número total de toneladas de alimentos utilizados por el programa se combinó con los datos del MINEM sobre las emisiones del transporte bajo tres escenarios de compra pública alternativos: (i) 100% localmente (dentro de un radio de 50 km), (ii) 50% localmente y 50% no local (radio promedio 525 km) y (iii) 100% de Lima (radio 1.000 km). [3] Encuesta Nacional de Hogares (ENAHO) que en el Fase II también se puede utilizar para obtener información sobre indicadores relacionados con el riego, uso del agua y agroquímicos y la diversidad a nivel de cultivos.Las figuras 3 y 4 presentan un análisis de la huella promedio de CO 2 eq de los almuerzos y desayunos del \"producto\" Qali Warma. Como los niños en edad preescolar tienden a consumir menos, su huella es menor (1.160 kg de CO 2 eq en 2014) que la de los estudiantes de primaria (1.470 kg de CO 2 eq). Además, se pueden observar claras diferencias entre los menús. Para los estudiantes de primaria, los kg de CO 2 eq variaron entre 0,24 y 1,57 (promedio = 0,91) dependiendo del menú del almuerzo, mientras que para los desayunos esto varió entre 0,14 y 0,31 (promedio = 0,22). La menor huella del almuerzo se asoció con el menú del almuerzo del miércoles (pescado, arroz y frijoles), mientras que la más alta (con emisiones >6,5 mayores) se asoció con el menú del viernes (carne de res, arroz y frijoles). Esto coincide con los hallazgos en otros lugares donde la carne de vacuno [4] ha sido identificada como uno de los productos que se asocia con altas emisiones. 56,57 El análisis de los desayunos servidos (Figura 4) revela que los desayunos que contienen pescado tienen las huellas más bajas, mientras que los que incluyen leche tienen mayores emisiones (>2,2 mayores). Se puede hacer un análisis similar para los desayunos de \"ración\" de la escuela primaria (que van desde 0,27-0,39, promedio = 0,32), revelando que los desayunos de ración tienen una huella de CO 2 eq más alta que los desayunos de producto (los almuerzos están hechos con productos únicamente) [Figura 5]. Arroz con leche con galleta de soda Harina de trigo con leche con galleta de soda con manjar blanco Hojuela de avena con lomito de pescado con arroz Mazamorra de avena con leche con cachanga de trigo con manjar blanco Harina de maíz con fideos en salsa de pescado Promedio CO 2 eq kg Inicial Promedio CO 2 eq kg Primaria 1 Arroz con leche con galleta de soda Harina de trigo con leche con pan con croqueta de pescado 2Harina de maíz con fideos en salsa de pescado Hojuela de avena con leche con pan con manjar blanco 3 Harina de trigo con leche con galleta de soda con manjar blanco Maíz con leche con pan con huevo sancochado 4 Hojuela de avena con lomito de pescado con arroz Sémola con leche con pan con manjar blanco 5 Mazamorra de avena con leche con cachanga de trigo con manjar blanco Mazamorra de arroz con leche con pan con lomito de pollo CO 2 eq kgs Productos (Primaria) CO 2 eq kgs Raciones (Primaria) Diferencia CO 2 eq kg Fuente: Autores.Con respecto a las emisiones de CO 2 eq asociadas al transporte (y bajo la suposición de que los productos alimenticios se transportan en camiones de 30T asociados a un consumo de gasóleo de 12,62 l/100km y por tanto a emisiones de 0,331 kg por camión/ km 58 ), cada 100 toneladas de productos alimenticios transportados dan como resultado 55,11 kg de CO 2 eq si se compran localmente. Esto aumenta a 578,62 kg si se compra 50% localmente y 50% no localmente, y a 1,102 kg si se compra desde Lima. Cuando se compara con los datos de la Tabla 1, se puede ver que la huella de CO 2 eq relacionada con el transporte es relativamente modesta, la que varía, dependiendo del escenario de distancia de compra (local vs. ciudad capital) del 0,11% al 2,3% de la huella de CO 2 eq asociada con la producción per se. Los valores más altos se asocian con el transporte desde lugares más distantes y aquellos productos con huellas de producción de CO 2 eq relativamente más bajas asociadas con ellos (como el azúcar y los frijoles).Basándose en el recetario Qali Warma Costa Norte y los datos sobre las emisiones de CO 2 eq asociadas con la producción de los productos alimenticios, se puede ver que los diferentes tipos de comidas tienen huellas de CO 2 eq muy diferentes, con algunas huellas como las de ciertos almuerzos de escuelas primarias que son más de 6,5 veces mayores (1,57 ÷ 0,24 kg CO 2 eq). También hay diferencias entre las comidas de productos y las comidas de raciones, con las raciones de desayuno de la escuela primaria siendo asociada con una huella de 1,45 veces más (0,32 ÷ 0,22) que los de los productos.Por lo tanto, es evidente que existe la posibilidad de reducir las huellas de CO 2 eq mediante la selección de diferentes comidas y, en menor medida, mediante el uso de productos en lugar de raciones. Con el fin de identificar comidas que contienen perfiles calóricos y nutricionales equivalentes, además de tener costos similares, se podría utilizar la programación lineal para identificar aquellas con la huella de CO 2 eq más baja.Un análisis de la huella de CO 2 eq del transporte de los productos alimenticios revela que aunque las compras no locales pueden tener un impacto 20 veces mayor, en general el impacto es relativamente pequeño (0,11%-2,3%) en comparación con la huella de producción.1. Identificar el potencial para servir comidas con menor huella de CO 2 eq, cuando sea posible, la eliminación de las comidas que actualmente tienen las huellas más grandes, basando más comidas en productos en lugar de raciones y mediante el uso de programación lineal para identificar una gama de nuevos menús que podrían sustituirlos.2. Mejorar la precisión de los datos de huella de CO 2 eq, refinando los datos de Vásquez-Rowe et al. ( 2017) tal que se pueda distinguir mejor entre las diferencias potenciales en las huellas de la producción agrícola de escala grande vs. familiar para productos alimenticios idénticos.3. Obtener datos relacionados con los lugares de compra actuales, de modo que se pueda obtener una medida más precisa de la huella de transporte de CO 2 eq, incluso para aquellos basados en productos importados, como trigo, arroz y leche.4. Obtener estimaciones de la huella de CO 2 eq asociada al embalaje, tanto para poder generar estimaciones más precisas de las huellas no relacionadas con la producción más allá del transporte, pero también para poder distinguir mejor entre las huellas de los productos y las raciones.5. Incorporar otros indicadores ambientales, económicos y sociales (incluyendo gobernanza y trabajo). Por ejemplo, con respecto a este último, los indicadores SAFA relacionados con bienestar social (FAO, 2013, p.261) contienen una serie de indicadores potencialmente relevantes que podrían utilizarse. [5] Los indicadores ambientales adicionales podrían relacionarse con el agua (riego) y el uso de agroquímicos, que es probable que sea significativamente mayor en la producción a escala grande que en la agricultura familar. Tales impactos podrían medirse en términos de sus volúmenes de uso (datos de ENAHO disponibles, aunque no necesariamente distinguen por la escala de la producción) pero también en términos de kg de CO 2 eq basados en el uso de energía para la producción de agroquímicos o el bombeo de agua de riego.También deben tenerse en cuenta los indicadores relacionados con la agrobiodiversidad. Los indicadores SAFA de integridad ambiental que podrían adaptarse para este fin se refieren a la medición de la proporción de la producción que incluye variedades distintas de las más comunes para cada especie comprada (p. 116); y/o la proporción de la producción correspondiente a las variedades adaptadas localmente y a las variedades raras y tradicionales (p. 118).En este contexto de evaluación de los impactos sobre la agrobiodiversidad de los programas de compra de alimentos, se puede señalar que para las variedades amenazadas de cultivos como la quinua que están asociadas con una meta de conservación de un área de 5 ha/variedad 59 y rendimientos de ≈800kg/ha para las variedades tradicionales, que generar demanda para tal nivel de producción requeriría 80 g a ser utilizado en 50.000 comidas (5 x 800 ÷ 0,08). Suponiendo que hay 200 días al año en los que se pueden servir tales comidas, para 100 variedades de este tipo esto equivale a 200.000 comidas (50.000 x 100 ÷ 200) o solo el 0,68% de las comidas que Qali Warma sirvió a los 3,7 millones de niños beneficiarios en 2017 (25.000 ÷ 3,7m), suponiendo que cada uno recibió por lo menos una comida por día. Por lo tanto, la capacidad de Qali Warma para apoyar el mantenimiento de variedades nutritivas de cultivos nativos amenazados es alto y se debe seguir trabajando con respecto a la identificación y el abastecimiento local de dichas variedades amenazadas, así como el monitoreo del impacto de dicha compra en apoyo a los objetivos de conservación.6. Ampliar el análisis a otras regiones del Perú más allá de la Costa Norte.La producción y compra de alimentos están asociadas con impactos ambientales significativos.En consecuencia, las organizaciones públicas y privadas (como el programa de alimentación escolar Qali Warma, las universidades, los hospitales, las prisiones, las fuerzas armadas y las empresas mineras) que participan en la compra de alimentos ocupan una posición importante para apoyar el desarrollo sostenible.Sin embargo, el potencial de utilizar tales programas de compras para promover la sostenibilidad de la agrobiodiversidad en línea con la legislación nacional y los compromisos internacionales sigue siendo en gran medida inexplorado.El desarrollo de una herramienta \"Aliméntame Sosteniblemente\" capaz de evaluar los impactos en una variedad de escenarios (entre otros: Negocio como siempre, Aumento de la compra local, Amigable con la Agrobiodiversidad) puede apoyar la identificación de buenas prácticas, áreas de mejora y medidas específicas para aumentar la sostenibilidad alimentaria. La herramienta, con potencial aplicabilidad global, será de beneficio para los responsables de la elaboración de políticas, los gerentes de compra de alimentos, las asociaciones de agricultores y escuelas, las ONG y las empresas del sector privado.El desarrollo de una herramienta de apoyo a la toma de decisiones y su puesta a prueba en el contexto del programa de alimentación escolar Qali Warma de Perú permitirá explorar cómo el aumento de la compra local y la incorporación de variedades de cultivos amenazados en sus comidas puede conducir a cambios en el contenido nutricional, la aceptabilidad, los impactos socioambientales y el costo.La aplicación de la herramienta FSM se puede utilizar para informar la identificación y ampliación de buenas prácticas y experiencias piloto a otras partes del Perú. El desarrollo de herramientas también es particularmente oportuno en el contexto del recientemente lanzado Plan Nacional de Agricultura Familiar (asociado con la Ley # 30355), que incluye incentivos financieros para aquellos que compran a los pequeños agricultores.Los problemas de disponibilidad de datos deben abordarse a través de un enfoque de tres fases (desarrollo de conceptos, implementación inicial e implementación a profundidad), lo que permite que los resultados iniciales basado en cifras aproximadas se generen con bastante rapidez, pero con aplicaciones cada vez más sofisticadas a lo largo del tiempo. El desarrollo continuo de herramientas se llevará a cabo en la Fase I en el contexto de un proceso de diálogo con las principales partes interesadas.La adición de alimentos agrobiodiversos de origen local de los pequeños agricultores requerirá el compromiso de los municipios y los gobiernos regionales, así como el desarrollo de la capacidad de los agricultores y sus asociaciones para que puedan cumplir con los estándares de calidad necesarios y producir a una escala suficiente. Las normas aplicables podrían ser las de los organismos reguladores del Perú (SENASA y DIGESA, en este caso), y la certificación SGP (Sistemas de Garantía Participativa).Este estudio se llevó a cabo como parte del programa de Economía de la Conservación y Uso Sostenible de los Recursos Genéticos de la Alianza de Bioversity International y el CIAT. El estudio es parte del Programa de Investigación de CGIAR sobre Políticas, Instituciones y Mercados (PIM), y es financiado con fondos del PIM, que es dirigido por el Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI). PIM a su vez es apoyado por múltiples donantes (http://www.pim.cgiar.org/donors/). Este documento no ha pasado por el procedimiento estándar de revisión por pares del IFPRI. Las opiniones expresadas aquí pertenecen a los autores, y no reflejan necesariamente las posturas de la Alianza, PIM, IFPRI o CGIAR.","tokenCount":"5600"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"92ae7e2121bd49d03d5863c8caf8f726","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/48e8a3f8-a7e6-4ad8-b9cf-b05ae195ef0c/retrieve","id":"727948430"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"cdd9cbb9-84df-42ba-a37a-30cf0d5eea8e","pagecount":"32","content":"CGIAR's Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM) Initiative seeks to identify entry points for where food, land, and water system (FLWS) resilience and sustainability principles can produce co-benefits for sustainable development and peace across the various components of the Humanitarian-Development-Peace (HDP) nexus. Activities organised under Work Package 2 of FCM specifically support the development of an improved understanding of the intersection of climate change, conflict, and fragility, and trans-spatial mobility dynamics for the delivery of effective and contextspecific programming across the spectrum of mobility (those at risk of displacement, displaced populations, and host communities). Moreover, research work conducted under this work package additionally seeks to assess the role that FLWS innovations and solutions can play in transitioning from short-term humanitarian support interventions and emergency aid into longer-term support programs for the generation of sustainable and climate resilient livelihoods as well as peaceful communal relationships.Displacement crises in the MENA region are often protracted. People who are displaced due to protracted conflicts, often combined with political, socio-economic, and climate change issues, may remain in a situation of displacement for prolonged periods of time. This situation leads to a blurring of definitions around what constitutes an emergency situation, and at what stage emergency response modalities should be transitioning into alternative support mechanisms, such as those related to development assistance. At panel discussions organized by CGIAR, including a session on climate, mobility and peace held at COP28, mobility experts and representatives of humanitarian agencies emphasized increasing challenges around distinguishing between short-term humanitarian responses versus longer-term development interventions in the context of protracted displacement. Given that several crisis situations in MENA countries such as Syria, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, or the Occupied Palestinian Territories have been continuing for years (and in some cases decades) rather than months, humanitarian organizations are finding it hard to define at what point an emergency situation ends and development aid starts.Research carried out as part of the FCM initiative has helped shed light on the complex landscape of humanitarian aid, social protection programs, and development initiatives community members (both host and refugee populations) benefit from. The assessment here is particularly concerned with the questions of where and how existing humanitarian aid programs can and should be gradually supplemented by, or transitioned towards, longer-term livelihood support programs -and where FLWS resilience and sustainability principles could potentially aid in this transition.This brief provides a short taxonomy of the different types of humanitarian and livelihoods support programs that Jordanian nationals and refugees hosted by the Jordanian state currently have access to, and identifies some preliminary future needs. It therefore focuses particularly on, firstly, how existing short-term support programs can transition into longer-term livelihood and development programs, and secondly, what local communities (and the various groups within) identified as priority needs in terms of livelihood support, particularly in the context of building livelihoods that are more resilient to climate change impacts. This brief is based on a literature review as well as on primary data collected by CGIAR's MENA Regional Climate Security Hub team as part of the FCM initiative between October and December 2023. Besides meetings and interviews conducted with key experts and practitioners in Amman, the team collected data in the two case study communities of Azraq Oasis (Zarqa Governorate) and North Shuna (located in the Jordan Valley in Irbid Governorate). Data was derived from 30 in-depth, semi-structured key informant interviews carried out with a mix of stakeholders in the two communities, including refugees and host community members, as well as a focus group discussion and a participatory workshop in each community.Following the 2016 Humanitarian Summit, humanitarian interventions have been increasingly informed by the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus (HDP Nexus). This new approach emphasises stronger cooperation, collaboration, and coordination between humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding efforts to ensure collective outcomes on the basis of coherent, complementary, and risk-informed analysis, planning, and action. In the context of this understanding, a greater degree of integration of humanitarian, development, and peace-related planning and implementation is intended. However, in a context characterised by protracted crisis, the transfer from the provision of humanitarian aid, designed to support immediate basic needs, towards longer-term development and livelihood support -whilst simultaneously attempting to conceptualise and mainstream a peace component -can be challenging, for a multitude of different reasons.Firstly, the humanitarian, development, and peace sectors have developed distinct system structures and protocols over time that are difficult to reverse and re-orient towards a coherent whole (Swithern and Schreiber, 2023). Humanitarian response, for instance, tends to be highly coordinated, with cooperation amongst organisations operating within the humanitarian cluster usually taking part in formalised coordination mechanisms that invest in and incentivise operational alignment. The development pillar, by contrast, operates primarily at the strategic level and is aligned to bilateral political dialogues (with little incentives to alter this way of working), whilst the peace pillar is comprised of such diverse sets of actors and mandates that it sometimes confounds effective integration into overarching collective outcomes. These divergences mean that humanitarian, development, and peace actors often have different objectives, attitudes towards risk, and differential metrics for success (Swithern and Schreiber, 2023). Secondly, operationalising a Nexus-based approach entails significant transaction costs that organisations need to consciously account for, including for example the need to assign dedicated staff to maintain attention and momentum as well as other associated operational costs (Land et al., 2022). Investments in both soft skills and protocols are required to engage a complex web of stakeholders. Such efforts are often hindered by a lack of clarity and contestation with regards to where the centre of gravity for coordination sits, as well as a reluctance on the part of donor governments and agencies to invest in such activities (Swithern and Schreiber, 2023;Dalrymple, Thomas, and Hanssen, 2021).Thirdly, humanitarian, development, and peace budgets channel through very different mechanisms and cycles. Rather than bridge across the three pillars, financing sources and instruments often have the opposite effect and prioritise humanitarian funding, engender competition, and, disincentivise operational coordination. UN Official Development Assistance (ODA) for instance grew 32% between 2012 and 2017, compared to a 156% increase of humanitarian ODA over the same period (UNMPTF, 2019). Humanitarian funding as such continues to form the bulk of financial inflow into the majority of country contexts. Furthermore, humanitarian and development partners tend to request funding separately, whilst donors similarly provide funding in a rather fragmented manner. UN-led humanitarian appeals may be consolidated at country level under the coordination of the UN emergency relief coordination, yet the fundraising itself is not coordinated, with individual organisations fundraising and receiving funds directly from donors (Swithern and Schreiber, 2023). Development funds -including many peace-related tracts -are meanwhile mainly channelled bilaterally and are as such contingent upon political dialogue between states.Despite these challenges, efforts are underway to improve the capacity of actors to coherently respond to protracted crises. This includes, on the one hand, a set of coordinating structures and platforms, and, on the other hand, the deployment of joint analytical exercises and objective setting (including in Jordan). With regard to the former -and reflecting the nature of the crisis Jordan has faced for the last decade or so -the Nexus discussion within Jordan is spearheaded by several UN agencies, including OCHA, UNHCR, and the Resident Coordinator's Office (RCO). Under the leadership of these entities, the aid community in Jordan has established several structures to lay the foundations for HDP Nexus implementation in the country, most notably including the Humanitarian Development Partners Group (HDPG), established in 2018; the Humanitarian Partners Forum (HPF), a sector-specific forum for humanitarian entities; and the Nexus Task Team (NTT), established in 2019 to explore the humanitarian-development nexus in Jordan. The NTT is furthermore directly supported by several donor secondees (UK/DFID, followed thereafter by a Swiss secondment) working specifically to further the Nexus in Jordan and facilitate the NTT (Ludin et al., 2022). Whilst this early-stage donor involvement is a sensible step -thereby allowing financing and strategic priorities to evolve in lockstep with one another -it is unclear whether this has translated into significant in-country donor coordination around the Nexus, such as through the establishment of a multi-donor fund.With regards to coordinating processes such as joint analytical and planning exercises, HDP Nexus entities in Jordan have engaged in a number of collective exercises. Joint or complimentary analyses are critical to operationalising the HDP Nexus, acting as the foundation for a shared understanding of risks, needs, and necessary responses, although conducting such exercises can be hampered by a disjointed analytical landscape in which sector-specific analyses lead to duplication, and a lack of inter-operability between data collection and storage systems can disincentivise information sharing (Swithern and Schreiber, 2023). Within Jordan, multiple agencies took part in a Joint Common Vulnerability Assessment (JCVA), underpinned by an inter-agency Vulnerability Assessment Framework (VAF) (enacted both biannually as well as quarterly), as well as conducting a Common Country Analysis (CCA) in 2020, thereby forging a common understanding across the UN system and IFIs. The VAF acts as a multi-sectoral framework supporting the humanitarian and development community to establish shared and consistent data about refugee vulnerability in Jordan to enable the monitoring of changes over time. The framework targets programmes in a more efficient and equitable manner, based on the application of common vulnerability criteria, and strengthens coordination and decision-making to inform the delivery of assistance and promote the self-reliance of refugees (Ludin et al., 2022).These joint analytical exercises have to some extent translated into coherent planning efforts, coalescing around several instruments including the Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), the UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF), the Jordan Response Plan (JRP), and the Joint Funding Agreement (JFA). Whilst efforts are therefore underway at the strategic level to promote alignment across collective outcomes, at the operational level, a prioritisation of humanitarian activities over longer term development and conflict prevention, mediation, and peacebuilding is apparent. Development with the aim of achieving self-reliance and resilience is less effectively targeted, particularly within the scope of humanitarian assistance, meaning that active coordination in the shape of tactical alignment and fused programming is not as of yet occurring successfully on a large scale (Ludin et al., 2022). The case of Jordan therefore shows that, in a practical context, implementation and operationalisation of the HDP nexus can be challenging, which raises several questions. Up to what point is emergency support for refugees useful and appropriate, and what parameters are set by political frameworks? Where would more meaningful and formal integration into local communities and economies make sense, and how could such efforts be facilitated? Where is operational alignment between humanitarian, development, and peace interventions currently lacking, and how can it be improved?Jordan is a country that has been heavily impacted by regional mobility and displacement caused by protracted crises throughout the region, some of which have been argued to have been at least partially shaped by climate change impacts. A country that is home to a total population of 11.3 million inhabitants, Jordan currently hosts almost 3 million officially registered refugees, including over 2 million Palestinian refugees, 760,000 Syrian refugees (UNHCR, 2023), and an additional estimated 1.3 million unregistered Syrian refugees (Breulmann et al., 2021). The majority of these refugees have been residing in the country for over a decade, or several in the case of the multiple generations of Palestinian refugees. The majority of Syrian refugees by contrast arrived in Jordan as a result of the civil war in Syria, which commenced in 2011, and many have as such been supported by humanitarian support and emergency aid in various forms for over a decade. Palestinian refugees residing in camps furthermore still continue to receive public services through the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).Yet throughout their residence in Jordan, many refugees have sought to establish a livelihood for themselves in addition to the humanitarian cash transfers they are entitled to. First, second, and third generations of Palestinian refugees have for instance established a life for themselves in Jordan after most have been granted Jordanian citizenship, enabling them to find employment and making them eligible for a variety of social insurance schemes and mechanisms. Syrian refugees -usually excluded from said social insurance schemes and in many cases legally prohibited from seeking formal employment opportunities -have also found alternative sources of income or ways to circumvent the legal restrictions they face. Some of the most common strategies for doing so include identifying work in poorly regulated or informal sectors -such as construction or agricultureor registering businesses and assets in the name of Jordanian friends or family members whilst retaining the income themselves. There is a fairly widespread perception amongst Jordanians that although Syrian refugees are welcome in their country, they receive unfair financial support by both receiving humanitarian aid and entering the work force (Stave and Hillesund, 2015).Notably, the majority of refugees hosted in Jordan reside in and amongst host communities, rather than camps or other designated separate areas, which can indeed put considerable pressure on public service infrastructure, natural resource management, housing, and labour markets of these communities (Achilli, 2015;Kumaraswamy and Singh, 2017;Simpson and Abo Zayed, 2019;Yamamoto, 2019). The long-term hosting and integration of refugees presents challenges for communities already struggling with water scarcity, food insecurity, unemployment, and the impacts of climate change (Faristha, 2014;Hussein et al., 2020). Although refugees are politically and discursively portrayed as temporary guests in the country, the hosting situation for local communities has been ongoing for a decade and more, thus representing a long-term situation that has had profound impacts on local livelihoods, economies, and resilience strategies.It is in this context that targeted humanitarian and transitional livelihood support programs can make a significant difference to local livelihood strategies, inter-communal relations, and climate adaptation and resilience capacities. Yet the complex patchwork of different, multi-generational refugee groups and the various support programs these different groups are eligible for in Jordan serves to complicate the distinction between short-and long-term support, the boundaries of agency and government responsibility, as well as the implementation of a coordinated HDP Nexus approach (see section 5 for more information). Understanding this landscape from the perspective of both host and refugee community members -and identifying to extent to which existing programmes met their needs and ambitions in the context of a changing climate -underpins the rationale of this research. Boxes 1 and 2 provide short introductory overviews of the two case study communities where the research was conducted.Azraq is an oasis town located in the Jordan's rangeland area (Badia, which receives less than 200 mm of rainfall per year), in Zarqa Governorate. Zarqa is among the governorates that hosts the largest number of refugees. Not only does the Governorate host Azraq camp, one of the largest refugee camps in Jordan, but Azraq's population has also increased significantly over the past decade due to the influx of Syrian and Iraqi refugees. The area is also home to multiple ethnic groups including Druze and Chechens, the latter of which -fleeing Russian persecution -were drawn to the town in the early 20th century for its farming and fishing opportunities. Aside from this, a substantial Bedouin population also calls the area home. Azraq camp, located around 15 km outside the oasis, houses around 20,000 refugees in approximately 5,000 shelters, mainly from Syria.Farmers around Azraq conduct a mix of rainfed and irrigated agriculture, while livestock plays an important part in the livelihoods of the Bedouin communities living around Azraq. While irrigated agriculture is less immediately susceptible to climate change impacts than rainfed agriculture, the Amman Zarqa groundwater basin suffers from considerable overextraction, which has led to a severe decline in groundwater levels (Al Wreikat and Kharabsheh, 2020). The distribution and usage of limited water resources forms a point of contention between farmers (supported by a strong political lobby), domestic users (represented by the water authorities that rely on the aquifer for domestic water supply), as well as a wetland ecosystem (Oberhauser, Hägele, and Dombrowsky, 2023). Salt extraction from the Azraq mudflat was mentioned by many of our respondents as Azraq's most significant local economic activity that used to provide employment for a large portion of the local community. When the salt refinery was closed, many local residents lost their employment. Young people who have been experimenting with ways to revive the salt business in Azraq say they lack both skills and investment to succeed.Refugees and migrants in Azraq mainly engage in day labour in the agricultural sector and work in the service sector, finding employment in local businesses such as restaurants and shops. According to our informants, there is a significant number of refugees who are either not registered or who have left Azraq camp, perhaps in part due to challenging living conditions in the camp, which for instance had no reliable access to an electrical grid until 2017-2018 when it became the world's first solar powered refugee camp (UNHCR, 2017).The Jordan Valley is the part of Jordan where most intensive agriculture is located. Access to the Jordan River as a water source provides a larger scope for irrigated agriculture in the area, and the Jordan Valley's relatively warmer temperatures and fertile soils led to the valley becoming an agricultural production and export area as early as 3,000 BC. Larger commercial farms as well as small-to medium-sized farmlands are located in the Jordan Valley, some of which use protected agriculture infrastructure such as greenhouses for more intensive food production. The Jordan Valley is famous for its horticulture, with citrus, olives, and dates representing major tree crops, but also for vegetable production (Mourad et al., 2009). The Jordanian Government has been promoting the planting of tropical crops such as papaya and avocado given their high value and demand in the market. Local farmers sell their crops almost exclusively on the Jordanian market, most commonly in large cities such as Amman and Irbid.Farmers receive their irrigation water mainly from nearby storage dams, where excess irrigation and surface water is stored throughout the winter months to enable irrigation during the summer. Farmers receive water through water user's associations that receive infrastructural support in the form of development projects funded by various foreign governments (Tawfik, M.H et al., 2023). Most farmers complained about a lack of irrigation water in interviews, as well as about a shift in seasons and rainfalls. Farmers do not have to irrigate their crops for several months throughout the winter, given that rainfall suffices for irrigation during these months. Other climate change impacts are heat and cold, and farmers complain about a rise in the occurrence of agricultural pests. Adapting farms to climate change impacts is costly, and farmers complain about a lack of support in shouldering these costs.The Jordan Valley also provides opportunities for formal, informal, and daily agricultural labor, and therefore forms something of a magnet for migrants seeking to work in Jordan and generate remittances for their families in their country of origin (many of whom are Egyptian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi) (Razzaz S., 2017). Those agri-businesses that make use of greenhouses and packhouses for agricultural produce particularly seek female labor. Given the Jordan Valley's proximity to Israel, refugees are currently prohibited from working and settling so close to the border, meaning that North Shuna hosts no refugees, other than a handful of Syrians who got married to Jordanians and have permanently settled in the community.Jordan provides a breadth of humanitarian, social protection, and development programs that are accessible to different population groups. Even among the refugee population, it is worth noting that different types of refugees enjoy different types of legal status in Jordan and have access to various support mechanisms. Jordan hosts the second-highest number of refugees per capita (UNHCR, 2023). UNHCR as registered 730,000 refugees in Jordan, the majority of whom are Syrians, and the remainder from Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia. According to UNHCR (2023), 81% of refugees reside in host communities rather than in camps, while UNHCR supports 200,000 refugees residing in both camps and host communities with regular cash assistance to cover their basic needs. Refugees under this category are not granted Jordanian citizenship and have limited rights when it comes to establishing a livelihood in Jordan (see below).Different conditions apply to refugees from Palestine. In 2023, UNWRA cites a total number of just over 2.3 million registered Palestinian refugees in Jordan (UNWRA, 2023). Around 300,000 Palestinian refugees fled to Jordan from the West Bank and Gaza after the 1967 conflict saw the Arab armies defeated and both Gaza and the West Bank returning under the control of the Israeli military (Amnesty International, 2023). Around 18% of these refugees live in ten official camps and 3 unofficial camps, whilst the remainder resides embedded within Jordanian communities. The Palestinian camps themselves have over the course of several decades adopted the appearance of open villages and towns with permanent housing, however, all public services -including education and health care -are still facilitated by UNWRA, even several decades after the camps were established. According to Amnesty international (2023), only three quarters of the Palestinian refugees hold full Jordanian citizenship with the national identification number that permits them to work and to access health and educational services. However, most of the Palestinian refugees who originate from Gaza do not hold Jordanian citizenship.In this context, it is important to note that Jordanian nationals and refugees have access to different types of social support. While Jordanian nationals are eligible for different types of social protection, refugees usually receive support in the form of shelter and/or cash transfers and food vouchers, legal support, support with education and vocational training, as well as some entrepreneurship programs offered by international aid agencies and NGOs.Most refugee groups -other than some Palestinian refugees -are not granted Jordanian nationality and are thus not eligible for state-based social protection schemes. Several UN-based humanitarian agencies such as UNHCR, WFP, and UNICEF provide direct emergency support to refugees residing in camps or host communities in Jordan, including cash transfers and food vouchers. In addition to cash transfers, the World Food Programme (WFP) has been providing food assistance to Syrian refugees in Jordan since mid-2012. It has evolved from providing hot meals to paper vouchers and e-vouchers, and finally, starting in 2017, to unconditional cash transfers. Staring in 2017, UNHCR similarly began a phased transition from restricted (e-vouchers) to unrestricted cash assistance, allowing beneficiaries to redeem the entirety or parts of their entitlement both at cash withdrawal points and WFPcontracted shops (Assaad et al., 2022). Several organizations such as UNHCR, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and Save the Children also contribute to a large-scale winterization program in Jordan. These involve the distribution of blankets, heating equipment and clothes, along with cash transfers. In 2020-21 about 90,000 families were supported under the winterization program (Assaad et al., 2022).Whilst UCT and food assistance programs have been reported to increase the quality of life among refugees in Jordan by reducing anxiety and povertyrelated stress, as well as an increasing dignity and a sense of self-worth among women, practitioners question the usefulness of UCTs in the context of protracted displacement. As many of these assistance programs for refugees are designed to cover immediate needs for survival, they are argued to have limited utility in supporting the establishment of longer-term livelihoods, facilitating the build-up of financial capital, and improving resilience and self-reliance. Moreover, the amounts of cash assistance that can be made available to refugees is largely dependent on international donor payments as well as on legal regimes in Jordan. Commentators have noted that funding amounts for refugee assistance in Jordan have been decreasing, particularly in the context of emerging crises in Ukraine and the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Moreover, representatives of the aid community in Jordan have noted that the maximum monthly cash transfers is being restricted by the Government of Jordan, partly to encourage a return of refugees to their home countries.Beyond immediate cash transfer and food support programs, humanitarian and international NGOs have been attempting to address the capacity gaps and needs of refugees in accessing work opportunities in Jordan. Several organizations have started to invest in medium-term capacity development and entrepreneurship programs that support refugees in building more sustainable livelihoods in Jordan. WFP is, for instance, currently in the process of implementing a skills survey among the refugee community in Jordan for refugees in its latest Country Strategic Plan (CSP). Other actors, such as the German Development Cooperation (GIZ), have been implementing a short-term co-working programme modality designed for both refugees and Jordanian nationals called Cash for Work.Funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the Cash for Work Programme has been implemented since 2017. Through the creation of short-term (usually 3 month) paid employment opportunities and training programs aimed at unskilled and semi-skilled workers, Cash for Work's goal is to support the livelihoods of refugees and host communities in Jordan. Opportunities for employment tend to include the rehabilitation of irrigation systems, soil conservation, and road construction and maintenance. The overall strategic objective of the programme is to produce social, economic, and ecological co-benefits for those engaging in the programme as well as broader society, with the programme supporting the maintenance of public infrastructure and increase ecosystem resilience whilst simultaneously providing paid labour for mixed groups of refugees and Jordanian nationals. Furthermore, by enshrining a participation quota of 50% Jordanian and 50% refugee participation -as well as a quota of 25% for female participations -the programme additionally forms a socio-economic vehicle through which contact between Jordanians and refugees is promoted and improved social cohesion can be sought. Up to December 2023, the Cash for Work program had employed over 15,000 workers (54% refugees and 46% Jordanians, with a 21% female participation rate). Work opportunities for the Cash for Work Programme are in part identified by the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA)regarding work around dam and water infrastructure -as well as by the Ministry of Agriculture, in the context of tree planting and nurseries.The Cash for Work Programme partners with local NGOs in order to successfully implement its activities, with these local partners usually being responsible for transportation, training, and employment and insurance processes for the workers, who are usually recruited from communities around the place of employment. Since its inception, Cash for Work workers in Jordan have worked on 4 out 10 dams managed by the JVA, have constructed 160 check dams, have contributed to cleaning dams and sedimentation measurement, have planted a total of 280,000 trees. Some activities have also focused on disaster risk reduction and management activities, with Cash for Work teams operating out of Zaatari Camp having for instance created canals with a total length of 24 kilometres to manage excess precipitation and reduce the risk of flooding. Cash for Work has additionally organized a total of 8,000 skills trainings and some 250 women have been trained as trainers.Cash for Work has previously been hailed for its potential to boost local economic development and promote entrepreneurial and other technical skills amongst participants, thereby potentially even producing secondary benefits for non-participating households in communities (Loewe and Zintl, 2023). Research has also shown that the programs can help forge social cohesion among refugee and host community participants, who receive identical training and salaries as part of their participation in the Cash for Work Programme (Zintl and Loewe, 2022). Moreover, as previously indicated, a portion of the Cash for Work Programme directly contributes to the sustainability of Jordan's water infrastructure through the maintenance of key infrastructure and ecosystems. Given the country's extreme water scarcity, Jordan is highly dependent on the functionality of its dams for both household, agricultural, and industrial water supplies, whilst reforestation activities can moreover serve to counteract soil erosion and provide a measure of protection against flash floods. A high-ranking respondent from the Jordan Valley Authority for instance expressed satisfaction with the Cash for Work Programme's achievements in Jordan, particularly in relation to the maintenance of the country's water infrastructure. Through the strategic identification of priority sectors and partners within Jordan, the Cash for Work Programme has therefore arguably been able to produce co-benefits across a range of themes and dimensions, including through contributing to Jordan's overall climate resilience.On the other hand, however, the programme is not without its detractors. One of the main criticisms levelled at the Cash for Work Programme centres around its inherently short-term nature, with one NGO representative previously contracted to conduct Cash for Work Programmes noting that those participating barely have sufficient time to complete their training before the programme cycle is complete. Other respondents similarly noted that rather than acting as a stepping stone towards more permanent, longer-term employment in the private sector, the Cash for Work Programme only provides a short-term alleviation of needs. Many have noted that sustainable longer-term employment would be much more beneficial to all stakeholders involved. The Cash for Work Programme is as such an excellent case study in how programmatic modalities are required to evolve in order to respond to changing livelihood requirements in the context of the protracted displacement of refugees of various nationalities in Jordan. Whilst a 3-month temporary employment may be beneficial in the context of short-term displacement, refugees who have been in the country for a decade or more require access to, and support in, identifying longerterm employment.Other examples of medium-to long-term support available to refugee communities include programmes offered by international NGOs, such as the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and the Danish Refugee Council (DRC). The DRC is for example responsible for implementing the Refugee Investment Facility, a financing entity that disburses grants to small-and medium-sized, refugee-run enterprises and provides entrepreneurs and their families with immediate protection to mitigate risks that would jeopardize the business. Such programs are based on surveys and needs as well as market assessments, and encourage refugee entrepreneurs to develop their own business plans. However, generally speaking, providing medium-to long-term livelihood support and engaging in long-term resilience building activities for refugee communities residing in Jordan remains a legally opaque effort.According to UNHCR (2023), refugees residing in camps can obtain a work permit free of charge to work across the country in occupations open to non-Jordanians, including work outside of the boundaries of the camp itself. Flexible work permits for refugees are issued specifically for those engaged in the service industry, craft (and related trades), skilled agriculture, forestry and fishery-related activities, elementary occupations, and machine operators. This list includes work in quarries, bakeries, electricity and gas supplies, water, sewage and waste treatment, construction, vehicle repair, restaurant and hotel jobs, as well as in arts, entertainment, and recreation (UNHCR, 2023). Several of our respondents indicated that the Jordanian Government had, however, recently raised the cost for obtaining a work permit by almost 40 JOD (from around 20 JOD), thus making it harder for refugees residing outside camps to obtain a work permit. Most refugees are furthermore not permitted to start a business or purchase land, thereby forming significant obstacles to the build-up of capital. Nevertheless, many refugees have found labour in the informal sector, or have developed workarounds to engaging entrepreneurial activities, for example by partnering with Jordanian business or landowners.The Jordanian Government provides social protection for socially vulnerable groups, yet refugees are generally not entitled to social protection other than social benefits earned through formal employment. Jordan's policy towards the management and integration of its refugee population is thus different from that of some other countries hosting refugees, with South Sudan for example having agreed to include up to 50% of refugees into their state social protection schemes.Jordan's National Social Protection Strategy (NSPS) (2019-2025) was developed by the Jordanian Government and led by Ministers from the Ministry of Social Development (MOSD) and the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MOPIC) with support from UNICEF. Built around the axes of decent work and social security, social assistance, and social services, this strategy provides a social protection floor and thus indirectly contributes to the construction and maintenance of a social contract between state and citizens (Kamar et al., 2022;MoSD and UNICEF, 2019). Jordan's largest social assistance program and the largest cash transfer program in the MENA region is facilitated under the National Aid Fund (NAF). Which provides cash assistance to nearly 220,000 households of Jordanian nationality that fall below the poverty line or house members with disabilities (ILO, n.d. cited in Meddings et al., 2023). The monthly coverage of this program is further expanded through a Takaful program -an Islamic compliant alternative to conventional insurance acting as a co-operative system of reimbursement or repayment in case of loss -which was implemented in 2019 with support from international partners, including the World Bank (World Bank, 2023;Meddings et al., 2023). Jordanian nationals also benefit from social security schemes including free, state-based medical coverage and maternity leave, public sector pension and military retirement plans, as well as unemployment benefits.The Ministry of Social Development is furthermore currently in the process of designing a shock-responsive social protection strategy with assistance from WFP. While this new strategy builds on international examples of shock-responsive social protection, it currently does not address slow-onset climate risks, such as droughts. A further limitation of national social protection schemes is that individuals engaged in informal labour (who currently represent 46.1% of Jordan's workforce) do not have access to social benefits (Jordan Strategy Forum, 2023).In the two case study communities identified previously, there were several additional avenues for providing social support to both Jordanians and refugees. The Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs in North Shuna provides disaster support and shelter, charity payments to poor families, widows, and orphans, as well as a list of educational, mentoring, and psychological support programs. In Azraq, the Druze community established a private, community-based relief fund during the COVID-19 pandemic that provided financial support to families of all faiths and origins. According to some respondents, this and similar mechanisms remain in place to this day, suggesting that a number of perhaps more informal or at least private coping mechanisms and community-based protection schemes do exist to compliment where there is perhaps a shortfall in state-run social protection mechanisms. In addition to this, women are exhibiting particular leadership in establishing local associations and social support organizations, as well as microfinance programs and running revolving funds.International development agencies and agencies tied to donor governments have also been providing livelihood support to Jordanian communities through a variety of development initiatives and programs. Development programs implemented by entities such as the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), GIZ, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) development bank, as well as by international non-governmental organizations such as CARE International and Save the Children, aim to produce programmes that generate and stimulate livelihood opportunities in particular for communities hosting refugees. Such programmes include those related to agriculture, such as the establishment of irrigation systems and related agricultural infrastructure to enable sustainable and climate-smart farming, as well as the establishment of community education and youth entrepreneurship centres. These programs are designed to ensure the supply of local communities with resources and public services, to create an impetus for local socio-economic development and thus generate employment opportunities, and to provide educational and vocational training opportunities that target skills and capacity gaps. Some programmes are designed to enhance social cohesion between host communities and refugees, foster gender equality and women's empowerment, provide awareness about domestic violence and early marriage, and provide children and youth spaces to learn, practice art, and be creative.The above list of various humanitarian and emergency aid programmes, social protection and insurance schemes, and livelihood support programmes refugees and Jordanians have access to in a context characterised by protracted displacement demonstrates that the border between short-and long-term support is somewhat blurred. Programs designed to provide immediate emergency support have been ongoing for years, while there have been only half-hearted approaches to provide longer-term livelihood support for refugees who are still perceived and legally identified as temporary guests, but who have been de facto shaping livelihoods in the midst of Jordanian communities for over a decade. As refugee crises become protracted, humanitarian agencies grapple with the question of when and how emergency relief or inherently more short-term programmatic modalities should gradually be supplemented by or transitioned towards longer-term resilience building activities. Whilst many organizations lack the appropriate frameworks to respond to a fundamentally changing displacement context, other challenges exist. These include:Short-term funding and project cycles that do not allow for sustainable approaches and incentivize short-term thinking and objective setting. A lack of systemic and sustained engagement with the Jordanian private sector, which would be able to help fund entrepreneurship and Cash for Work Programmes as well as make such programs more sustainable by helping extend beyond existing funding cycles and by providing channels for entry into the workforce and labour market. Challenges in establishing long-term partnerships with government institutions able to facilitate long-term social protection and livelihood support programs. Jordan's current legal frameworks around the management and integration of refugee populations, which as things currently exists, prohibits and limits the various avenues refugees may have towards longer-term integration and resilience.Particularly the last point is likely to continue to represent a major challenge when seeking to bridge and supplement short-and long-term programs. Whilst Jordan has been exceptionally welcoming of large numbers of refugees within its borders, existing legal frameworks are geared towards incentivizing a return to the country of origin rather than naturalizing refugees into Jordanian society. Given this context, the question remains how humanitarian programs can be transformed into or increasingly supplemented by longer-term development and resilience building schemes when the host country's legal situation does not foster long-term socioeconomic inclusion. Despite this, hundreds of thousands of refugees have remained in Jordan for decades and have created de facto livelihoods for themselves, especially those refugees living in host communities.Practitioners and beneficiaries alike have been criticising the short-term nature of many support programmes. Aid delivery modalities such as humanitarian cash transfers are designed to cover basic needs in a humanitarian emergency, and as such cannot help refugees build longerterm livelihoods through which they are able to generate self-reliance. The Cash for Work Programme, despite delivering a variety of positive outcomes related to social cohesion, capacity building and upskilling, and climate resilience, is at its core designed to support short-term employment only. International NGOs claim that closer partnerships with the private sector could help make programs such as Cash for Work less reliant on current funding cycles, and more likely to continue past the duration of direct donor engagement. A clearer vision on the future of refugees in Jordan could potentially help design programs that would enable refugees to contribute more proactively to all sectors of Jordan's economy, even if their duration of stay in the country was limited in time.In the context of building sustainable, resilient livelihoods in a cohesive and peace-responsive manner in communities hosting refugees it is critical to explore the extent to which existing humanitarian and livelihood support programs address an intersectionality of risk, particularly the interplay between social vulnerability, structural inequality, and vulnerability to climate change impacts.In this context, conceptualization of intersectionality is often limited in terms of the variables included in an intersectionality assessment, which also limits awareness as to the intended and unintended effects of social assistance in the context of intersectionality (Oosterhoff and Yunus, 2022). This therefore provides programme designers with a constrained picture with regards to how they can embed the achievement of co-benefits and positive externalities into programme design, whilst minimising potentially negative ones. Meddings et al. (2023), for example, explore the extent to which implementing agencies possess the conceptual and operational awareness to exploit the potential that social protection and humanitarian support programmes have for actively fostering climate change adaptation and resilience in Jordan. They find that although there is to some extent a conceptual understanding of how social protection and humanitarian action could be linked to climate action, there remain a number of operational shortcomings that prohibit the realisation of these co-benefits, including the absence of integrated vulnerability assessments and mapping, a lack of participatory programme co-design protocols with local communities, a lack of general protection coverage, and the need for different ministries and humanitarian agencies to work together more effectively in generating synergies between programs.Continuing to build the evidence base around the interaction of various interconnected layers of risk and vulnerability that stretch across social, political, economic, as well as environmental dimensions remains critical for the development of social protection and humanitarian programmes that can address risks in an integrated -as opposed to disjointed -manner. One example of such efforts comes in the recent work of the Arab Water Council (AWC) and WFP ( 2023), who in a bid to generate methodologies that allow for an integrated measurement of social vulnerability and climate change impacts that take into account pre-existing social vulnerabilities and structural inequality, developed an integrated indicator index and produced GIS maps with a focus on social indicators that overlay over 32 indicators at the national level. Providing implementing agencies with the most comprehensive possible assessment and mapping of an increasingly compound risk landscape is therefore critical for the transition away from emergency response and towards addressing longer-term needs and vulnerabilities.The field research conducted in Azraq and North Shuna has provided a better understanding of the socio-cultural and economic realities faced by refugees and host communities on the ground.Refugees residing in Azraq camp are permitted to leave the camp if they have found employment within the community, often for entire agricultural seasons in the context of agricultural labour. In Azraq itself, however, refugees are involved in a broad spectrum of jobs beyond agricultural labour, including work in restaurants and shops, construction, as well as entrepreneurial activities pursued either informally or in cooperation with local residents. Several Syrian refugees the research team spoke to in Azraq emphasized that they did not wish to return to Syria, even if they had not been able to establish a sustainable livelihood in Jordan. One research participant described the situation in Azraq as follows:The Syrian refugees have had a big impact on the local community, they place pressure on the Jordanian population in the context of prices, housing, and competition on the labour market… what bothers Jordanians is that refugees make money from UNHCR and also compete on the labour market… the government should create separate working areas for refugees when they live inside communities (and not in camps)… there are some joint businesses between Jordanians and Syrians, for example agricultural businesses such as olive production… Syrians are also buying land around Azraq, these are Syrian investors and the investment law allows them to legally purchase land … after the Syrians came to Jordan, some registered businesses in the names of Jordanians, others married Jordanians and were thus allowed to own land and businesses… there are overall less work opportunities than before, and also more security issues… we never used to lock the door of the houses, now there is more crime from both inside and outside the community… there are also more drugs than before, a lot of people suffer from depression\".Most Jordanians interviewed in Azraq expressed some resentment about refugees obtaining automatic and unconditional cash transfers whilst still competing with Jordanians in the labour market. Moreover, the fact that Syrian laborers were often in a position to accept lower wages -perceived to be partly due to the fact that they were receiving cash transfers -has further contributed to labour market deflation in a way that has proved detrimental to Jordanian workers. In both communities, respondents complained about unemployment and an oversaturated labour market (especially among youth and women) a dynamic which is driving many young people away from both communities in search of employment or educational opportunities elsewhere.In North Shuna, the research team perceived less direct competition on the labour market between Jordanians and refugees. Given that the agricultural sector in the Northern Jordan Valley does not employ refugees, the majority of agricultural labour is performed by migrants. Most Jordanians who were interviewed as part of the research perceived agricultural labour as insufficiently lucrative, strenuous, and less attractive than public sector jobs given the often informal nature of the employment and lack of social benefits. Although not entirely correct, a notion that was raised in multiple contexts was that \"Jordanians do not work on farms here\", and within this context, many host community members seemed glad that foreign migrants (predominantly Egyptians) were engaging in what are perceived to be the most labour-intensive and lower paid agricultural jobs.Interviewees in both Azraq and North Shuna complained about development programmes being too short-term, did not seek to be sustainable following the end of the project life cycle, only benefiting a small number of people, and being derailed by the heads of NGOs that were seeking personal benefits. Given the context of protracted displacement and migrant labour in Azraq and North Shuna respectively, respondents in both communities were instead in favour of developing more effective programmatic approaches to medium-to long-term resilience and socio-economic development.Available government or non-governmental support programmes were identified as being geared more towards short-term support rather than providing sustainable and scalable livelihood opportunities, despite there being in both locations examples of small-scale, artisanal agro-industry producing secondary or tertiary products. Cash transfers were mostly noted as ineffective and usually insufficient in scale, whilst technical and financial support for entrepreneurial activities, marketing, and value chain development was recorded as being largely lacking. Numerous interviewees in Azraq and North Shuna independently of each other used the phrase \"teach us how to fish and give us a fishing rod instead of the fish!\" Taking the analogy one step further, one participant stated:Existing entrepreneurship programs were described as being too limited in terms of their financial support and were in some cases being abused by beneficiaries. Several respondents referred to programs that offered as little as 500 JOD of financial support for opening a company, an amount of money that \"does not even last half a month\". Several respondents also recounted stories of beneficiaries who were provided entrepreneurship grants to open a service sector business, but eventually closed it down and purchased a car with the support money. Whilst implementing agencies are aware of such stories of abuse, they make the case that such grants are critical for the generation of self-reliance of recipients and claim that it is necessary to find a good balance between monitoring the program uptake and providing recipients the freedom to experiment with business development, even if they fail.Most research participants moreover complained that the design of development programs and initiatives was not sufficiently inclusive or participatory. Where participatory processes were embedded within programme design, they were deemed more of a formality or a tick box exercise by community members, rather than truly informing locally responsive development approaches and initiatives. There to some extent still remains, therefore, a lack of political will as well as the practical frameworks for a successful implementation of participatory co-design and program implementation structures. An International NGO in an interview added that a challenge was to redirect large amounts of available annual funding towards restructuring program development practices in order to make them more participatory. As one respondent put it, development organizations tend to interview the same handful of community members or use the data in a manner that suits their original agenda and strategic priorities, thus ignoring or not capturing the ideas of the rest of the community. One participant stated:It is as if you are giving a fisherman his equipment and he is standing in the wrong location, hoping to catch a fish that is not available there. The problem is not about the budgets of the development projects, it is about finding the right idea and carrying out a proper needs assessment and then project management.\"Even after consulting the local community, external development organizations often return to the original agenda they wanted to implement while disregarding the local priorities raised.\"Another respondent argued for integrating local organizations into development solutions and approaches and providing such organizations with more of an active role in facilitating local socio-economic development programmes. Numerous individuals identified for instance that local government institutions -for many people the only tangible face of government and the key local stakeholder that is directly accountable to them -were frequently by-passed in programme design. Steps were furthermore rarely taken to ensure a specific project could become sustainable beyond its life cycle by embedding it within the operations of said local government institutions. As one participant noted:Critically, refugees too tended to feel excluded from the design of local development solutions:Several respondents in interviews, focus groups, and workshops in the two communities expressed ideas relating to rural value chain creation and development, and the founding or rehabilitating of existing supporting structures and platforms that could facilitate said development and contribute to a diversification of the local economy. In Azraq, several respondents noted the benefits of reviving the traditional salt mining industry, and using the natural quality of the salt as a unique selling point to gain a foothold into national, regional, and international markets. Other needs identified in Azraq similarly related to improving market accessibility and the marketability of local products, including the establishment of a regional market in or near the town for the sale and purchase of local products, as well as investing into a sewing factory to provide more opportunities for women. Some international donors have to this tune already invested in establishing youth capacity development programs, including a handicraft centre, for the transferral of marketable skills.\"If you want to truly support a community, support its local organizations and institutions and not individuals through cash transfers and humanitarian aid. Otherwise, it is not sustainable.\"To be honest, refugees are not considered when implementing important projects in the village/region. Us refugees are considered as outsiders to the society.In North Shuna, respondents identified solutions not unlike those proposed in Azraq, many of them similarly relating to rural value chain development, the establishment of a more sophisticated local agro-industry capable of producing secondary and tertiary agricultural products, and improving market accessibility. Investing in the construction of a juice factory to generate value added to locally produced citrus fruit was, for instance, mentioned by several respondents. Establishing a more effective cooperative structure for farmers and producers was also identified as a necessary step in improving market access and livelihood generation, particularly in enabling producers to collectively negotiate the price of increasingly expensive agricultural inputs such as fertiliser as well as collectively engage in price control measures for their own produce. Specific products, such as olives and dates, are currently sold mainly on markets in Amman and Irbid, yet fair compensation is rarely provided for farmers due to comparatively high intermediate costs related to transport and storage.The overview of support services ranging from immediate humanitarian support, through social protection, development initiatives, and communityled social services provided here shows that the implementation of the HDP nexus in a country context hinges upon a variety of factors. These include the specific context of refugee histories and groups and the complexity of their livelihood situations and needs, existing legal frameworks, as well as the degree of coordination between different entities and agencies, among others.The research undertaken at both case study sites in Azraq Oasis and North Shuna has contributed to the generation of a more community-focused and grounded understanding and perception of available support programmes. With regards to the former, the Azraq Oasis has emerged as a melting pot for various generations of different groups of displaced people, including Druse, Chechens, Iraqis, and most recently Syrians. It therefore represents an interesting context within which to assess the degree to which refugees have been successful in constructing livelihoods within and alongside Jordanian communities, both in the short and in the long term. Our research in Azraq has demonstrated where and how existing programmes may fall short of providing sufficient or responsive assistance in generating inclusive socio-economic development in ways that are sustainable and resilient to the evolving effects of climate change on natural resource usage and access. North Shuna, by contrast, does not host significant numbers of refugees, but is instead home to a large number of working migrants attracted to Jordan's agricultural breadbasket to engage in seasonal labour and generate remittances. Our research in North Shuna further established the needs of host community members in establishing livelihood opportunities that are more sustainable, and -similarly to Azraq -identified the shortcomings of existing support modalities.In fact, it is worth noting that despite their differences, the challenges as well as the solutions identified by respondents and community members from both case study sites are strikingly similar. Whilst the arrival of a large number of refugees in such a short period of time has in the case of Azraq certainly affected the town's socio-economic and cultural fabric, the longerterm obstacles to development identified by those in Azraq are not entirely dissimilar from those identified by residents of North Shuna (which did not experience a significant influx of refugees). The decline of local ecosystems, a lack of access to markets beyond local or regional scales, a lack of local agro-industry, and unemployment were issues identified by both communities, factors which critically were found to be far more significant than any potential tensions or conflict between refugee and host communities. Both communities also similarly pointed to the need to invest in rural value chain development, (entrepreneurial) capacity building and skills transfer, and to establish or reinvigorate cooperative structures.Our research therefore makes a strong case to perhaps not overestimate the traditional dichotomy between refugee and host communities, and instead recognize that rural or peri-urban areas with predominantly agricultural economies and that experience protracted displacement require -in order to have sufficient absorptive capacity to cope with such an influxa much more comprehensive, multi-scalar approach to rural development.Developing value chains, creating cooperative entities and platforms for producers, and investing in market access can -if done in a consciously inclusive and peace responsive manner -simultaneously aid both refugee and host communities, as well as build cohesion between the two. In short, therefore:The example of Jordan shows that, in the context of protracted displacement, the implementation of the HDP Nexus on the ground faces a number of obstacles, including in terms of determining practical boundaries between ongoing emergency aid, transitional programmes, and longer-term development support. Transforming humanitarian support programs designed to respond to emergency situations into programs that support refugees in a context of protracted displacement requires a clear legal framework that allows for both a diversification of livelihood opportunities, integration into the national economy, and improved access to state-based social protection for refugees. Transitioning from humanitarian aid towards longer-term livelihood and development support requires closer collaboration between humanitarian agencies, development agencies, government entities, and the private sector on a range of activities, including by further developing joint analyses and vulnerability assessments, common strategic planning and results monitoring frameworks, fundraising, and advocacy efforts. Research in two case study communities in Jordan has shown that, despite the limited opportunities for refugees to become integrated in the labour market, many refugees have built livelihoods for themselves in their host communities in either formal or informal ways. The research has also shown that both Jordanians and refugees would welcome longer-term employment generation, rural development, and entrepreneurship programs rather than cash transfers, as well as more development projects to create local jobs. Respondents also expressed their wish that such programs be more anchored in local needs, factor in local ideas, and be co-developed with community members in a participatory approach. Despite the notable differences between the two case studies, both sets of respondents interestingly made similar assessments with regards to the challenges and obstacles each community faced. Both communities also put forward broadly similar solutions or ideas, many of which could be categorised under the notion of comprehensive rural development efforts, including value chain creation and development, the establishment or rehabilitation of cooperative structures for producers, (entrepreneurial) capacity building and technical skills transfers, and improved market accessibility.","tokenCount":"9295"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"fb99b8e7b841c40e8b0d172dc025a4ae","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/878a9597-4979-4b83-80ff-6601198b85a1/retrieve","id":"-1883621869"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"52107841-5c91-4501-b334-78f146257dd9","pagecount":"13","content":"Evaluating nitrogen(N) responsiveness in crops has many commercial/environmental advantages.Current lack of knowledge on its physio-genetic basis is a major bottleneck.We demonstrated that N dependent yield increase is driven by grain number (GN) in S.italica.GN has strong genetic basis -22 unique SNPs; six exhibiting haplotypes in natural population.Based on this, we define N responsive and non-responsive accessions with distinct panicle types. Few genes lying between SNPs with haplotypes show distinct transcript levels in two genotypes.The co-development of new agronomic practises including the application of nitrogen (N) fertiliser together with the selection of improved crop varieties lead to significant yield enhancement for a few selected crop species during the Green Revolution. However, not all crops benefited to the same level and some of the less improved species tends to be highly relevant to food security in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. One of them is Setaria italica, a C 4 cereal crop which is one of the world's ancient and second most cultivated millet globally [1,2]. It is self-pollinated lowland species with demonstrated high biotic and abiotic stress resilience [3]. Being nutritionally rich [4,5], it performs as a major crop in the arid and semi-arid areas of Asia, China as well as sub-Saharan Africa and it is distinctively enriched with slowly digestible and resistant starch making it a healthy low-glycemic index cereal [4]. Taken together, its exceptional adaptability and nutritional attributes have made S. italica a promising climate-resilient crop [5] and investigation into the strategies millets employ to regulate productivity in this context is particularly relevant for achieving sustainable future food security. The crop however remains under-investigated in terms of the traits underpinning improvements in breeding.Agricultural sustainability relies on optimal and resourceful application of fertilizers with nitrogen (N) as a major contributor. At the biochemical and physiological levels, complex interactions between assimilation of N in the form of nitrate (NO 3 -) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) contribute to crop productivity, mainly by coupling N driven leaf growth with photosynthesis (accumulation of higher amounts of light reaction components and CO 2 assimilates) [6]. Insufficient N accessibility is a major constraint to crop productivity worldwide [7]. Despite being expensive, its use in cropping systems in some parts of the developing world is considerably subsidised, often leading to its over application [8,9]. This is associated with undesirable environmental costs including eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems [10], threatening aquatic life and polluting the environment [11]. Furthermore, higher greenhouse gas emission from N fertiliser plants and as N 2 O release from fertiliser use are other contributory factors in this regard [12].Optimization of N provisioning strongly influences yield related agronomic traits [13], N assimilation rates and photosynthetic capacity [14] as well as biomass and many other physiological attributes in cereals [15]. However, in order to optimize N application in crop production, it is essential to appreciate how cereal plants respond to higher N accessibility and the underlying regulation of the process. Any insight in this regard should offer new prospects to select for or help breed new lines that will be more capable of converting applied N to harvestable product with mini-mal economic and environmental costs [9]. Understanding N responsiveness, defined as the plants ability to induce morphophysiological adaptation according to external N availability, is key to developing efficient genotypes. Selection of lines with improved ability to utilize available N holds potential genetic, agronomic, environmental and commercial advantages over conventional methods of measuring nitrogen use in crops e.g. nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) [9]. In wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) evidence exits that show selection over time has resulted in varieties having better N response compared to landraces characterized by enhanced N responsiveness at early N uptake conditions thereby pushing enhanced performance in field conditions at moderate N levels [16]. Genetic dissection of the trait can therefore highlight hitherto unidentified genomic regions of interest [17][18][19] with the potential to bridge the gap in our understanding of its regulation at the physiological and genetic levels. This in effect will allow us to understand new questions in crop N biology, for example, how external and internal N availability are perceived by plants and what are the downstream phenotypic responses. Additionally, it offers potential to understand how N is transduced and how plants monitor their N homeostasis at the interface of plant development and primary metabolism.The present study aimed to reveal the genetic basis for N response in a diverse population of 142 S. italica accessions, which are part of core collection of accessions previously studied for agronomic traits under uncontrolled nutrition conditions [20]. We used contrasting N treatments to dissect N responsiveness at the whole plant and genetic marker levels. We found that in S. italica yield is mainly driven by grain number per plant instead of grain size. Using genome wide association study (GWAS), we defined major singlenucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to yield traits (e.g., grain number per plant) and derived indices to measure different aspects of N responsiveness. Furthermore, we defined six (6) grain number responsive (GNR) and non-responsive (GNNR) genotypes which exhibit different panicle architectures, contrasting grain number response to low N (DN100-N25) and display consistent allelic variation of six SNPs (CS3.46666559, CS3.46708881, CS4.37893830, CS4.37893921, CS8.30225088, CS8.30225110) strongly associated with grain number responsive trait. Transcript abundance profiling of 17 genes proximally linked to these SNPs in the developing panicles of the two genotypes showed that three (3) among them, Seita.3G363700 (encoding a diacyl glycerol kinase), Seita.8G160400 (containing a DnaJ chaperon and two DUF domains) and Seita.8G160500 (encoding T-complex protein 1; TCP-1/cpn60 chaperone family) are differentially regulated while being consistent within each group. This demonstrates that allelic variation of these grains per plant (GPP) linked SNPs and expression of some of their proximal genes are linked in a genotype specific manner.A collection of 142 diverse S. italica accessions (Table S1) were chosen from a S. italica core collection (Lata et al., 2011;Lata et al., 2013) and the All India Coordinated Small Millets Improvement Project (AICSMIP, 2014). Accessions represent lines originating from China, India, Bangladesh, Turkey, Kenya, Russia and USA exhibiting relative consistency of germination and viability of seeds.In order to ensure maximum proximity to seasonal field conditions, plants were grown in pots (19.5 cm height  20 cm diameter) outdoors under a 70% transparent cover. Three biological replicate pots per accession were settled in a randomized block design. Pots were filled with 3 kg of nitrogen free soilrite mix: vermiculite (2:1 w/w) and saturated with 1.6 L of demineralized water. Mancozeb 75% WP broad spectrum fungicide (2 g/L) was first used to pre-treat the seeds, then dried and sown. 300 ml of demineralized water was used to irrigate the pots 7 days after sowing (DAS). Germinated plants were examined at 14 DAS and seedlings were thinned to keep one plant per pot.At 14 DAS, pots were fertigated with 0.5 L of Hoagland nutrient solution (Table S10) formulated in demineralized water with three different N levels: N100 (2 mM Ca (NO 3 ) 2 )-control/optimal N strength, N25 (25% of the full nutrition, i.e., 0.5 mM) and N10 (10% of full nutrition, i.e. 0.2 mM). All plants were fertigated once every week for 17 times (between 16 h00-17 h30) in a manner that allows complete absorption of the nutrient solution by the growth medium without any leaching from the pot throughout the experiment. The three N levels were determined following a test of 5 N levels (N100, N50, N25, N10 and N0) in 9 accessions (Table S11). This showed that N10 was more appropriate than N0 as the lowest viable N level treatment and that N25 allowed greater distinction among accessions as a low N level (yield per plant performance at N50 and N25 were comparable). At maturity, panicles were collected, threshed, seed grains collected, sun dried and stored for the study.Sixteen (16) agronomically significant and yield related traits and 5 derived index traits were assessed at three N levels (2 mM-N100, 0.5 mM-N25 and 0.2 mM-N10) using a full cycle potted experiment of the 142 S. italica accessions (Supplementary Table S1; Supplementary Table S2) chosen from a previously reported core collection [20]. A total of sixteen agronomic traits were measured, and data was collected for three replications per accession. A one-way ANOVA analysis was performed to evaluate the relative contribution of the genotype, N dose and their interaction towards the trait performance (Table S13). Five index traits, namely: stability index (SI), tolerance index (TOL), mean productivity index (MPI), geometric mean productivity (GMP) and stress susceptibility index (SSI) were used to further evaluate the differences in trait performances due to any two N conditions (Table S4).Broad sense heritabilites (h 2 = r 2 g / r 2 p ) of major traits and their indices were calculated (Table S13), where r 2 g and r 2 p are variances due to genotype and phenotype, respectively.Approximately, 5 mg of the powdered grains were used for CHN analysis (CHNS (O) Analyzer, Italy, FLASH EA 1112 series, Thermo finnigan) using the method elaborated by Dumas [21]. N and C contents from each genotype was obtained as percentages of the sample weight studied with three biological replications per sample.Leaves from 4 weeks old plants were used to isolate DNA using the Cetrimonium bromide (Rogers and Bendich, 1985). Post RNAase treatment (Fermentas, USA), the isolated DNA was checked for integrity and then quantified through 1.2% agarose gel electrophoresis and NanoDrop 1000 (Thermo Scientific, USA), respectively. Double digest restriction associated DNA (ddRAD) and Illumina HiSeq4000 platforms were used to genotype and sequence the samples, respectively (Peterson et al., 2012) (Agri-Genome Labs Pvt Ltd, Hyderabad, India). Raw FastQ reads were demultiplexed with only one mismatch to obtain reads for each sample and RAD tags were used to filter the data. 5 0 and 3 0 ends of the reads were trimmed along with the removal of Illumina adapters (Cutadapt v 2.3), while Bowtie2 (version 2-2.2.9) was used to align trimmed sequences to the reference genome catalogued in the phytozome 12 database version 2.2 at default parameters (https://genome.jgi.doe.gov/portal/pages/dynamicOrganism Download.jsf?organism=Sitalica).Furthermore, bcftools were used for filtering reads based on their depth and quality while sequence alignment map (SAM) tools (version 1.6) were used for variant calling analysis.Assessing population structure and linkage disequilibrium STRUCTURE version 2.2 software [22] was used to perform model based population structure analysis wherein Burn-in and MCMC were set as 50,000 and 100,000 respectively. We employed admixture model with five iterations for each run and assumed 2-10 sub-populations, with the real number of determined subpopulations by employing the delta K method [23] through an online tool STRUCTURE HARVESTOR [24]. A genotype was assigned to a specific sub-population when it had ! 80% probability of affiliation while those with < 80% of the value were considered '' admixtures''. Previous information on chromosome-and genomewide LD [25] were also used in the analysis. The genetic relatedness of the individuals in the panel was ascertained by clustering the filtered SNPs using the phylogenetic tree construction tool implemented in TASSEL v5 (neighbour joining clustering method) and visualizing the same using the Archaeopteryx tool [26] implemented therein under all default settings.For genome wide association study (GWAS), a minor allele frequency (MAF) of > 5% and missing data of < 30% were fixed as the basic cut-off values from a total of 29,045 SNPs by implementing the filter feature within Tassel 5 software [27]. We employed fixed and random model circulating probability unification (FarmCPU) package [28][29][30] for genome wide association which has been regularly used for many crop/cereal studies in the recent years [31][32][33][34]. The tool effectively eliminates issues arising due to kinship, population structure, multiple testing therefore making it one of the best models for association mapping currently available [28][29][30]. Kinship matrix is inbuild in FarmCPU and three PCA were employed (K + PCA model) for GWAS analysis. SNPs with a p < 0.001 were deemed significant SNP-trait associations (STAs) followed by p-value adjustment via Bonferroni correction (threshold set at 0.01). Quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots were used to show how the expected and observed p-values are distributed and fit into the population structure model. A set of 16 major traits were analysed at three N levels with 10 derived index traits from each major trait (5 indices/ main trait of N10-N100 and N25-N100), totalling 208 traits (Table S2). Broad sense heritability for all traits were found to be > 0.8 (Table S13).Identification of functional genes proximal to trait specific STAs S.italica genome 2.2 (available from Phytozome v12, https:// phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/pz/portal.html#!info?alias = Org_Sitalica) was used to identify genes proximal to SNPs related to significant STAs (for all traits) within the intervals of 0-1 kb, 1-5 kb, 5-10 kb, 10-20 kb, 20-50 kb and 50-100 kb distances from the SNP position in either direction. A distance of 20 Kb along the chromosome was considered a standard window to look for genes positioned proximal to trait associated SNPs for downstream analysis.SNPs found to be significantly associated with GPP traits in the study located within the LD decay distance of 177 kb as previously reported in the crop [35] were considered as prime landmarks for identification and assessment of genes linked to grain number responsiveness in the S. italica genome. Based on the above, we identified three pairs of SNPs (CS3.46666559:CS3.46708881,CS4.3 7893830:CS4.37893921, S8.30225088:CS8.30225110) and profiled the expression of genes located 25 Kb upstream and downstream to them within Setaria italica genome (available from Phytozome v12, genome version 2.2, https://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/pz/portal. html#!info?alias=Org_Sitalica) for qRT-PCR based assay (Table S7). A similar approach for identification of putative genes related to nutritional traits in S. italica is reported [35]. For this purpose, nine GNR and GNNR accessions were grown at low N (N25) and optimal N (N100) conditions as previously described and panicles were harvested at the early stage of panicle development when the spikelet organization of the inflorescence is decided (grain number), just before the onset of anthesis. Collected samples were immediately frozen in liquid nitrogen and stored at À80 °C. Total RNA was isolated using Spectrum Plant Total RNA kit (SIGMA), visualized in 2% agarose native gel, quantified using NanoDrop TM 1000 Spectrophotometer followed by reverse transcription using Verso cDNA Synthesis Kit (Thermo Fischer) as per the recommended guidelines. qRT-PCR assay was performed by using the Power SYBR Green chemistry (Thermo Fischer, USA) and employing the QuantStudio Real-Time PCR (qPCR) for assessing the relative transcript abundance of the target genes between samples and N conditions with three biological and two technical replications. S. italica actin gene (ACT2) was used as suitable endogenous control previously established [36] for the crop. Exon spanning primers for the target genes (Table S9) were designed using the NCBI Primer-BLAST online tool (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/tools/primer-blast/)Amino acid sequences of proteins were obtained from the gene view tool using the gene ID compatible with S. italica annotation available in Phytozome v 12. The selected sequences were searched within the Pfam database (http://pfam.xfam.org/) and results from only the significant Pfam searches (sequence alignment and hidden markov model-based analysis) under default setting were included in further analysis.Nitrogen dependent trait performances were measured and visualized using the 'dplyr' R package [37] while variances were evaluated using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) function ''aov ()\" analysed using R (R studio version 1.2.5001) [38]. Linear model regression analysis was accomplished using the ggplot2 R package [39] and ggpubr package (v 0.3.0) [40] with dependencies while data analysis and plotting for multi-trait Pearson's correlation was performed using the ''ggcorr\" function within the ''GGAlly\" package (v2.0) [41]. Plots showing contrasting trait dependent and N specific responses in GNR/GNNR were plotted using the ''ggline()\" function under ''ggpubr\" R package. Normal distribution of traits were ascertained by the Shapiro-Wilk test using ''shapiro. test()\" present natively in R. Scatterplot ellipses were plotted using the ''ggplot2\" R package using the stat_ellipse() function.While hundred grain weight (HGW) did not significantly vary between N levels, most of other traits showed a substantial N response (Fig. 1B). Grains per plant (GPP) and yield showed a positive response to increased N accessibility for the majority of accessions (Fig. 1). There was a larger range of yield performance at high N (N100: 0.2 to 2.727 g), in comparison to low N dose settings (N10: 0.035-0.597 g; N25: 0.162 to 0.985 g), implying that the resultant yield plasticity to N increased availability exists in the population (Fig. 1 A), despite having comparable variance at all N levels (N10: 0.41; N25: 0.34; N100: 0.31). All other traits (shoot dry weight, panicle number, grain protein content, maturity time included) showed a noteworthy genotype by N level interaction (Fig. 1B).Analysis of N dependent yield performance showed that the trait was positively and strongly associated with GPP across all three N levels (R 2 = 0.9, p < 0.01; Fig. 1C, Table S3) unlike HGW (R 2 = 0.01, p < 0.01, Fig. 1D; Figure S1). This indicates that the observed variations in yield are strongly affected by GPP and much less so by the weight of individual grains, regardless of N levels. Notably the GPP range is much higher at high N (40-1700 grains per plant compared to 5-584 grains per plant at N10 and N25). Furthermore, we observe that the increment in GPP is reliant mostly on grain number increase per panicle (Figure S2A) and less on the panicle number (Figure S2B). In S. italica multiple panicles originate from the same stem (secondary panicles) which mean that more panicles do not translate into more tillers.Harvest index (HI), grain per panicle (GPPn; Figure S2C, D) and to a smaller degree shoot dry weight (SDW; Figure S2E) were also positively connected with yield, suggesting that partitioning of N to the panicle may contribute to increased yield. Interestingly we observed a negative (R 2 = 0.11; p < 0.01) association between yield per panicle and panicle number signifying a trade-off between overall yield capacity of a panicle and panicle number (Figure S2F). However, the absence of any correlation between overall plant yield and panicle number in this context suggests some degree of compensation for the negative correlation stated above.We employed five (5) derived indices of the traits to specifically appreciate the genetics of N response in S. italica. We define these indices focusing on yield as the major trait (Fig. 2A). Yield at N100 is weakly correlated to yield at N25 (R 2 = 0.152) and N10 (R 2 = 0.056), supporting the idea that it is important to measure responsiveness under different N conditions (Fig. 2B). The tolerance index (TOL) simply indicates in real terms (i.e., g per plant) the yield gain under high N conditions compared to low N conditions and appears to be the best representative index for N responsiveness. Therefore, a higher TOL value indicates greater yield increase after addition of N (from N25 or N10 to N100) whilst low TOL indicates a small value. The mean productivity index (MPI) and the geometric mean productivity (GMP) provide a measure of the mean yield over the range of N levels tested. While MPI is highly correlated to yield at N100 (R 2 = 0.94) and less so to yield at N10 (R 2 = 0.22), GMP is correlated with both indicating that it is less affected by extreme values and perhaps a better representation of an overall yield under contrasting conditions. The stability index (SI) is a ratio that offers a direct comparison between yield under high and low N. In this case, a very low SI (<1) indicates higher yield under high N conditions compared to low N conditions. SI tends to be negatively correlated with other indices (Fig. 2B). The stress susceptibility index (SSI) represents a similar index to SI that is normalised to the overall yield mean of the population under both high and low N. We also calculated N use efficiency (NUE) as the ratio of grain produced per unit of N provided. NUE under each N level is highly correlated to yield for each N level (Fig. 2B). As the NUE calculation simply corresponds to division of yield by a constant for a specific N treatment, this measure was not used in the further analyses.A total of 142 S. italica accessions were genotyped with a set of 29,045 high quality SNPs. Heterozygosity of both SNP markers and individuals were within acceptable limits (<25%) (Figure S3A; B). SNP markers showed uneven distribution in nine chromosomes with an overall average of 125.73 SNPs/Mb in S. italica. Chromosome 8 and 9 had the highest (235.6 SNPs per Mb) and lowest (87.45 SNPs per Mb) densities, respectively. Overall, chromosome 1 was found to have their maximum evenly distributed densities (Figure S3C). Among chromosomes, the mean polymorphism information content (PIC) ranged from 0.125 to 0.20, the least and maximum values lying in Chr 9 and 8, respectively (Table S3). Population structure analysis showed that about half of accessions were admixed (75 out of 142), and residual 67 accessions being  S5), data as p value for each factor (genotype and N level) and their interaction. GPC: grain protein content. (C) Yield correlates positively with the number of grains per plants, irrespective of N level. (D) Yield does not correlate with the hundred grain weight. For C and D, each cross represents an individual plant. Fig. 2. Index traits of a major trait measure different aspects of its N responsiveness. (A) Tabulation to show the details of all trait indices measured for each of the 16 major traits analysed for 142 S. italica accessions (B) Correlation plot to show coefficient of correlation (r) between and within Yield traits at three N levels and its index derivates on one hand and NUE major trait on the other. For ease of understanding and visualization, only N10(Y LN ) was considered for plotting index traits of Yield. Since NUE shows strong correlation with Yield main traits at all three N levels, index derivatives for the trait were not plotted. Values are a mean of three replications. Mean data of phenotypic performance of all traits and their indices are available in Supplementary Table S6. randomly spread over 9 sub-populations clustering under nine discrete phylogenetic clades (Fig. 3D).We identified 68 SNP (marker) trait associations (STAs) for the traits measured and their indices from 16 major traits (Table S5; Fig. 4). These STAs comprised of 59 unique SNPs significantly associated with ten major traits (P value set at 5 e -07 , Bonferroni correction = 0.01) [42] and related indices: D50F (days to 50% flowering), GPP, grain C/N ratio, grain C, leaf chlorophyll content, panicle number, HGW, days to panicle emergence, days to maturity and shoot length (Table S5; Figure S4). These SNPs were spread throughout the genome, with chromosomes 8 and 9 containing the most (24) and least number (2) of significant SNPs, respectively (Fig. 4). We found that all 68 STAs are highly trait specific (i.e., having no overlap with other major traits) although some SNPs could be associated with more than one trait index within a given major trait (Table S5). Intriguingly, we found more unique STAs associated with index traits (55) than with major traits (13) suggesting that more genetic loci are linked to traits that measure differences in N response due to N availability (N responsiveness) compared to those that don't (Table S5, Fig. 4).Additionally, we examined the incidence of genes adjoining the SNP loci based on the genes annotated in the S. italica genome. Within 50 Kb of such SNPs, we identified a total of 272 genes based on their closeness to nearest genes (protein coding) in six distance ranges of 0-1 Kb, 1-5 kb, 5-10 Kb, 10-20 Kb and 20-50 Kb (Sup-plementary Figure S5; Table S6). Additionally in this respect, chromosome 8 was found to have the highest gene density, followed by chromosome 5.Even though we did not find any significant SNP association with yield trait (or its indices), significant STAs could be identified for yield related traits such as GPP, panicle number and HGW (Table S5). Overall, GPP traits showed the greatest number of detected significant associations (a total of 26 associations from 59 SNPs out of which 17 STAs associated with GPP index traits) suggesting that N responsiveness of the trait is significantly regulated at the genetic level (Figure S4). Furthermore, among the 22 unique GPP linked SNPs, we identified three (3) SNP pairs (CS3.46666559:CS3.46708881, CS4.37893830:CS4.37893921, S8.30225088:CS8.30225110) which are linked to GPP index trait, lie within the linkage disequilibrium(LD) decay distance estimated previously [35] and show haplotypes for their corresponding linked traits, suggesting that allelic variation in these SNPs has significant implications for variability for linked N responsive traits MPI_GPP_N25, MPI_GPP_N10 and GMP_GPP_N25 (Fig. 5).Subsequent analysis to identify their proximal genes (upstream and downstream 25 Kb) revealed the presence of 17 unique genes (Table S7) out of which four genes (Seita.3G363300, Seita.3G364000, Seita.4G260600, Seita.4G260700) are unannotated as per Phytozome v2.2. The remaining genes broadly fall in the category of acid phos- phatases (Seita.3G363500, Seita.3G363600), kinases and kinase activators (Seita.3G363700; Seita.3G363800), nucleic acid binding and chromatin remodelling (Seita.3G363900, Seita.8G160300, Seita.8G160400), cytoskeletal organization (Seita.3G364100), hormone biosynthesis and secondary metabolism (Seita.4G260400), protein folding (Seita.8G160500), ligand-binding and ion channel activity (Seita.4G260500), glucosidase activity (Seita.8G160600).Based on our observation that N dependent yield performance is largely driven by grain number in S. italica, we explored whether specific accessions exist in the population which exhibit contrasting grain number responsiveness (GPP_TOL N100-N25) and at the same time are consistent with the allelic variation of SNPs linked to grain number responsive traits (GMP, YI, MPI, SI and TOL). Grains per plant (GPP) at N25 was used to calculate grain number responsiveness since it is appropriately placed to induce N deficiency whilst still allowing ample N for successful grain filling (than at N10) and therefore yield in majority of accessions. Our analysis showed that accessions SI 100, 168, 178, 187, 78,182 and SI 128, 146, 170, 177, 3, 56 show very high and low values for the trait, respectively and exhibit consistent difference in panicle architecture, especially with regard to awn distribution and their lengths (Fig. 6A, B). Furthermore, we observed that these two groups of accessions largely maintain the same allelic variation for six GPP linked SNPs (Table S8) that lie within LD decay distance of 177 kb (CS3.46666559, CS3.46708881, CS4.37893830, CS4.37893921, CS8.30225088, CS8.30225110), previously established for the crop [35]. Such grain number responsive (GNR) and grain number non-responsive (GNNR) accessions were analysed to further examine the basis for N responsiveness in S. italica.Apart from the differences in their capacities to utilize additional N to produce grains, GNR and GNNR also exhibit characteristically different shoot dry weights, yields, harvest indices, panicle dry weight and longer flowering times at least under high N (N100) (Fig. 6C-G) determined chiefly by the ability of GNR accessions to yield more grains. To further dissect their differences in N dependent yield plasticities, we measured four derived indices related to yield, grain number (GPP), hundred grain weight (HGW) and harvest index (HI) based on their respective trait performances at low and high N levels (N10-N100; N25-N100) (Figure S6). Two low N levels (N10 and N25) were considered for the analysis to enable a better understanding into how such trait plasticities play out at very low (N10) and low (N25) N levels against a common control (N100). We observed that except for HGW, indices for all the remaining traits (Yield, GPP and HI) differ significantly between GNR and GNNR genotypes while maintaining the same pattern of behaviour when considering very low to high N (N10-N100) and low to high N (N25-N100) comparisons (Figure S6). Similar to the overall population, yield patterns in the two types shows strong positive correlation with grain number while none were observed for HGW (Figure S7A). Comparative analysis of all these phenotypic trait classes suggest that most vary significantly as a function of genotype and N level (Figure S7B). These observations suggest that the two groups of genotypes have discrete patterns of phenotypic responses to N provisioning that are consistent within each group and provides evidence that N responsiveness between these two is significantly different across multiple derived interpretations of yield traits. Focussing on these subsets of accessions for further analysing the mechanism of the N dependent yield responses may therefore provide new insights that may still be applicable to the population under study.To examine if expression patterns of genes linked to GPP traits are differentially expressed in genotypes with high and low plasticities (GNR and GNNR), qPCR assays of genes proximal to GPP associated SNPs (in LD) were performed (Table S9), using the approach previously implemented in the crop [35]. Three accessions with similar panicle emergence times were chosen from each of the GNR (SI 100, SI 178 and SI 168) and GNNR (SI 128, SI 56 and SI 56) groups to access transcript abundances of 17 genes at high N (N100) against low (N25) N condition to measure their N responsiveness. We observed that three genes (as per Phytozome v12) namely Seita.3G363700-Diacyl glycerol kinase; Seita.8G160400-a DnaJ domain containing protein; Seita.8G160500-T-complex protein 1 (CCT8) out of 17 genes showed largely consistent and distinct expression patterns within and between the two groups, respectively (Fig. 7A). Sequence analysis of their encoded proteins (significant PFAM match, [43]) indicates that Seita.3G363700 has all the domains necessary for diacylgerol kinase activity (with accessory, binding and catalytic domains) while both Sei-ta.8G160400 and Seita.8G160500 are chaperone family proteins containing Hsp40 (DnaJ domain) and Hsp60 (TCP-1/cpn60) proteins, respectively (Figure S8). Seita.8G160400 also contains two DUF (domain of unknown functions), and exploring any connection between them and the DnaJ domain with regard to protein activity will be greatly insightful vis-à-vis N responsiveness. While greater availability of N causes a relative increase in their transcript accumulation in GNR, the opposite is true for GNNR thereby indicating commonality in their regulation leading to potential N responsive processes in a genotype specific manner. Furthermore, we also observed an overall difference of type of correlation between grain number tolerance (TOL_GPP) and expression of all the 17 genes in GNNR/GNR. While we find an overall positive correlation in the case of TOL_GPP/GNR, the same is not true for TOL_GPP/GNNR (Figure S7B), suggesting that these genes largely associate with N responsiveness in a genotype specific mannerEnhancement in yield performance has been limited in S. italica, especially in comparison to staple cereal crops like wheat, rice or maize. However, the crop can potentially play a larger role in many agro-ecosystems worldwide, including sub-Saharan Africa and India. An important feature that has pushed rise in yield output the major crops is the simultaneous use of synthetic N fertilisers and selection of newer varieties. Intensive agriculture has largely driven selection of varieties that performed better at optimal N conditions [9] and currently information on how crop plants respond to increasing N availability, though crucial is limited. Fill-Fig. 6. Grain number responsive (GNR) and non-responsive (GNNR) S. italica accessions have opposing grain number tolerances to contrasting N availability. (A) For all the accessions analyzed (on the x-axis), data are plotted from the mean grains per plant (GPP) on left y-axis at N25 (orange lines) and at N100 (blue lines). The grain number tolerance at N25 (GPP at N100-N25) is represented by black line and scaled on the right y-axis. Dotted lines indicate GNNR and GNR limits. Each of the six red and green filled circles indicate specific GNNR and GNR accessions, respectively which largely share the same allelic form of significantly GPP linked SNPs namely CS3.46666559, CS3.46708881,CS4.37893830,CS4.37893921,CS8.30225088, CS8.30225110. Panel B show panicle architectures of these accessions at N100. Panels C, D, E, F and G show data for shoot dry weight (SDW), yield, harvest index (HI), panicle dry weight and days to 50% flowering (D50F) for each of these genotypes at three N levels, respectively. Data shown as the mean +/-SE of three replicates from six GNR or GNNR accessions. Differences due to N level, genotypes and their interaction were analysed using two-way ANOVA followed by Tukey Test with differences indicated by asterix (*). GNNR accessions: SI 128, 146, 170, 177, 3, 56; GNR accessions: SI 100, 168, 178, 182, 187, 78 (Table S6). Error bars show standard error. ing this gap can potentially help selection of varieties that profit from N input in order to yield more and limit N loss to the environment. In this paper, we dissected the response of S. italica plants to increased N availability and identified potential genetic markers for high N responsiveness, thus demonstrating a newer approach for variety selection in crops.Grain number per plant largely regulates nitrogen directed yield increase in S. Italica Typically, yield is determined by the number of grains produced and their weight per plant. The influence of grain number trait in effecting yield trait in cereal crops is well recognized [44][45][46]. In C 4 crop like maize, yield is primarily and positively dependent upon the kernel number and number of ears per plant [47,48] although the overall N dependent yield gain is determined by both kernel number and kernel size in the crop [49]. In millets like Sorghum, N dependent yield is largely driven by panicle number, grain number per plant and grain weight [50][51][52] while it is the panicle number per unit area which largely determines the yield performance (up to 65%) in pearl millet under nitrogen and water stress conditions [53,54]. This indicates that understanding the plasticity of N-dependent response of total number of grains produced (which is dependent on the grain number per panicle and the panicle number), has additional value for C 4 crop species beyond S. italica.Our study in S. italica shows that N-dependent increase in grain number per plant has a strong impact on the yield increase in S. italica, and that this is mainly effected by an increase in grains per panicle rather instead of rise in the number of panicles per plant. N has a strong effect on branching response in many species [55][56][57] which would relate to higher panicle number in S. italica. A further effect of N supplementation, particularly at earlier developmental stage, is the increased number of flower per panicle [58] which is facilitated by cytokinin amounts in the developing panicle in rice [59]. In our study, we observed that the N-driven yield rise in the GNR type is fixed at (early) panicle developmental stage. Therefore, comparison of earlier developmental stage signalling of GNNR and GNR types at the initial stages of panicle growth may provide major insights on how N determines grain number variation in S. italica.It is noteworthy that we did not observe any agronomic tradeoff to increased yield in terms of grain weight (Fig S6 ), which is greatly valued by breeders. This will allow identification of the economic N optima threshold for the crop thereby reducing N application rates without affecting crop productivity (grain yield) and positively impacting sustainable agriculture. This will however require the identification and utilization of genotypes that are more capable of translating acquired N into gainful and consistent yield performances with much lesser increment of N fertilizer input as exhibited by GNR genotypes.N responsiveness is a heritable multigenic trait in S. italicaIn the present study, we investigated the effect of higher N availability on yield response in S. italica which showed that N responsiveness is a valuable trait with strong genetic basis [9]. We observed that there is no strong correlation between the yield measured at N10 and the yield at N100, or between yield measured at N25 and N100 (Fig. 2). This indicates that for S. italica, the N responsiveness or increase in yield under high N conditions cannot be inferred from yield measurements conducted under low N conditions. Therefore, measurements under low and high N conditions are crucial. Likewise, GPP measured at N10 and N100, or N25 and N100 do not share any correlation. Therefore, measuring yield under only low N does not offer information on the yield potential at high N level and vice-versa, yield measurement under high N does not provide information on the yield performance achievable under low N conditions. We have evaluated a series of indices here to estimate the yield gain achieved in the presence of N, with the TOL index being a good representative of N responsiveness per se.N responsiveness is a trait which is heritable and can be mapped genetically, and therefore amenable to breeding programme. The complexity of the trait however is a major challenge as many of the STAs found associated with the trait did not overlap with STAs for major traits, signifying that the genetic basis for high N responsiveness differs from those determining major traits performance including GPP. Furthermore, we did not find any of the STAs close to known genes associated with primary metabolism. In Arabidopsis, plasticity of branching due to increased N in greatly responsive lines also less branches under low N and very high shoot branching under high N doses [56]. This is in contrast to our results in this study, where the extent of N responsiveness remains unpredictable when plants were grown under low N.GWAS analysis highlighted the presence of three pairs of GPP index trait linked SNPs (CS3.46666559:CS3.46708881,CS4.378938 30:CS4.37893921,CS8.30225088:CS8.3022511), within close proximity in the chromosome and the existence of correlation of their haplotypes (Fig. 4) with variation in trait performance in the population suggest that NR in the crop is genetically regulated and the underlying components of which are heritable and potential targets of crop improvement strategies. Further investigation of genetic components (SNPs and their proximal genes) pertaining to those linked to N dependent grain number responsive traits (GPP index traits) will be particularly useful to help identify their roles in regulating the trait and the mechanism of regulation thereof. The presence of a significant portion of trait linked SNPs within 3.5 kb upstream to their proximal genes (6 out of 12 GPP index linked genes) suggests that they are likely to have significant influence on their target genes leading to genotype dependent grain number NR (Table S9). Though many protein candidates are known to play a role in N sensing, there is still ample discussion about the molecular machinery underlying N sensing in crop plants [60]. In this regard, we observe that the genes Seita.3G363700 (diacylglycerol kinase) and Seita.4G260500 (Ionotropic glutamate receptor) positioned downstream to the GPP linked SNPs CS3.46666559 and CS4.37893830, respectively, have been previously implicated in either N sensing, N/C partitioning [61,62] or lipid metabolism [63] influencing yield response.Genes related to grain number responsiveness are transcriptionally regulated in a N and genotype dependent manner Gene expression studies to ascertain the transcriptional regulation of genes proximal to SNP (in LD and showing haplotypes in the population) linked to GPP index traits suggest that few of them are regulated differently in N responsive and non-responsive genotypes. Three genes Seita.3G363700 (encoding a diacyl glycerol kinase-DAG), Seita.8G160400 (an uncharacterized chaperone (Hsp40) protein containing a DnaJ domain) and Seita.8G160500 (encoding T-complex protein 1 belonging toTCP-1/cpn60 chaperonin family) are noteworthy since they showed strong consistent upregulation (from 3 to 13 folds) in GNRs while remaining largely uninduced in their GNNR counterparts in response to N. Diacylglycerol kinases has significant role in lipid metabolism which is altered under high N conditions with low C [64] and perhaps differential activity of the gene in GNNR leads to altered partitioning of C under low N vs high N than in GNR. Higher expression of 'NUMBER OF GRAINS 1 0 (NOG1) gene encoding enoyl co-A hydratase/isomerase (ECH)-a vital enzyme in fatty acid b-oxidation pathway was reported to enhance grains per plant [63]. Notably, lipids work as C source for fungi associated with plants in arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis [65], only under a low plant N status. Furthermore, DAGs are crucial for generation of phosphatidic acid in plants, a key signal transducer of lipid metabolism/signalling [66] and have been implicated in N sensing in Arabidopsis [67] with contingent effects on organ growth and development. The observed N dependent differential expression of its encoding gene in the developing panicles of the two genotypes in this study is likely to impact the growth and development of these tissues, potentially influencing the observed variation in grain number performance. Exploring how N regulates their behaviour will potentially provide novel insights on hitherto unexplored role of N on genetic regulation of yield responsiveness in cereals.Plant cytokinin levels are known to be directly associated with N availability [68], thereby potentially modulating assimilation of N and C metabolisms [68,69]. Previous studies in tomato [70] showed that frameshift insertion-deletions (InDels) in two DnaJ encoding genes underlie the expression of a cytokinin oxidase/ dehydrogenase gene responsible for cytokinin transport to leaves under higher N availability thereby suggesting their N responsive behaviour. In a previous study, DnaJ proteins have been shown to play important roles in photosystem II maintenance and hence the extent of carbon assimilation through photosynthesis [71] Furthermore, DnaJ/Hsp40 proteins have been implicated to act as transcriptional activators of many genes by binding with many transcription factors [72]. This indicates that differential transcript abundance of Seita.8G160400 in two genotype groups identified in our study may mediate/regulate N dependent cytokinin metabolism differently leading to their observed differences in N dependent yield response in the crop. Further studies are however needed to substantiate this observation.T-complex protein 1 subunit theta (CCT8) Seita.8G160500 is a molecular chaperone which facilitates protein folding and is implicated in stem cell maintenance by transporting transcription factors and other proteins through plasmodesmata [73,74]. The distinct transcriptional responses of the gene (to elevated N provisioning) in the panicle between the two groups suggest that perhaps they target genes/components regulating stem cell maintenance differently potentially leading to differential abolishment of floral stem cell maintenance in the growing inflorescence and hence their different architectures. Furthermore, an overall higher correlation between the transcript abundance of all the 17 genes (N100 vs N10) and TOL-GPP in GNR indicate that they are largely N responsive. However, comprehensive molecular and physiological studies are required to fully explore how enhanced N availability and its perception relates to its transcript abundance and its consequences to inflorescence organization.Identifying the minimal N amount for optimal yield is key to limit the undesirable ecological impacts of fertilizer dependent cereal cropping. Here we demonstrate that N responsiveness is an important trait to consider in achieving this aim. The present study provides the first exhaustive analysis in S. italica of the responsiveness of multiple agronomic traits to applied N and identifies a set of genetic loci strongly linked to N dependent grain number response. Of the putatively associated genes, some showed strongly differential expression in a N, genotype and temporal specific manner in the developing spikelet. The insights gained and resources generated in this will help identify promising N responsive accessions for use by breeders in devising sustainable crop improvement strategies. This study provides key avenues for comprehensive dissection of N responsiveness in the climate resilient C 4 crop S. italica with a potential for translation in additional cereal crop species relevant to sustainable food security.This research work does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects.","tokenCount":"7130"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"240a19719f433b20b9c86630cb40f18c","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/fcd425d1-621f-4da8-bd69-cba25912afe3/retrieve","id":"336636105"},"keywords":["A, AGUAT, ANSM, ARIZ, ASU, BAA, BAB, BAFC, BM, BR, BRIT, CAS, CHAPA, CICY, COL, CORD, CPUN, CR, CS, CUZ, DAV, DS, DUKE, EBUM, ECON, ENCB, F, FI, G, GH, HAO, HNMN, HUT, IBUG, IEB, INB, K, L, LAGU, LIL, LL, LPB, M, MA, MEXU, MICH, MO, MOL, NA, NCU, NY, O, P, PH, PMA, POM, PRG, QCA, RB, RSA, SI, TEX, UC, UCR, US, USJ, USM, UVAL, WIS albescens, 2 racèmes, en floraison, j go. [MEXU","27-I-2011]. UCR75254. /// Plantas de México: Edo. de Colima. (Macroptilium) [barré]. Phaseolus lunatus L.. Rancho El Jabalí, aprox albescens, en go sèches, graines, 6 racèmes, B1 elliptiques étroites acuminées presque linéaires 5 mm long 1 mm large, qq go avec fines stries violettes. [MEXU","27-I-2011] Phaseolus. Bejuco herbácea, en malezas. /// Base de datos Phaseolinae [cachet à l'encre bleue]. /// Herbario Nacional (MEXU). Phaseolus albescens A. Delgado & R. Ramírez-Delgadillo, det. A. Delgado, 2008. /// DGD: albescens, 3 racèmes, en j go en transition à go vertes. [MEXU","27-I-2011] Phaseolus costaricensis, et c'est l'holotype","en floraison, 2 racèmes, jgo. [US","12-V-1997] costaricensis, isotype, 2 racèmes, en floraison, jgo. [UC","22-X-2003] costaricensis, en floraison, jgo, un seul très grand racème vigoureux","pas d'indication de site. [SI","22-IV-1988]"],"sieverID":"05709aa9-065b-45da-8edb-f59139cce49f","pagecount":"229","content":"was mutually agreed with the Editor of the Botanical Research Institute of Texas that the monograph should not exceed 300 pages. We had a lot of specimens that the two of us had seen and annotated together in Mayagüez, or separately. We agreed with the Editor that at least an identification list should be in the monograph (pages 291-294), so Curators of Herbaria would have identifications for the specimens they kindly allowed us to see. Since 2002 more Herbaria have been visited (see full list at the end of this explanatory note) by myself and more specimens have been annotated. Obviously few journals would accept the publication of these records in full. The publication of these 'note books of phaseology' on the web site of the genebank of CIAT where the largest collection of beans is currently maintained, was one way to put that information available to the public. This file is periodically updated as more visits to Herbaria increase the number of specimens of species belonging to this section.weedy forms, not to the beans grown anywhere on purpose by people). For each country, the alphabetical order of currently acknowledged departments/ provinces/ states is followed. Within each department/ province/ state the specimens are presented by alphabetical order of names of collectors, the first family name coming first when applicable. If there are many specimens by the same collector(s), the lowest collecting numbers will come first. When there are many specimens with the same collecting number, the alphabetical order of the Herbaria keeping these specimens is followed. The specimens used as types (with indications in red and in bold face about the kind of types) immediately follow the introduction of the species name. There are two reasons for this: for the taxonomist the type contributes to the validation of the species (and we know straight which species we are talking about), and if a user looks for the type(s) it will be faster to look for it (them) at a specific location in the files throughout the sections rather than to look for it (them) by geographical area. Logically the holotype comes first. The types of species put in synonymy will logically follow, in alphabetical order of the names of these species, unless they were not validly published, and in this case these specimens will be in the general list (as usually Curators of Herbaria proceed). In a few cases, the type specimens are followed by specimens for which there is no geographical information. In cases where only the country has been indicated, then the specimens will be at the top of the list before the first department/ province/ state listed alphabetically.All notes found on the voucher specimen on the day of visit are taken in the way they have been written (trying to respect the original to the extent possible), and written down along a time sequence starting with the oldest annotation (sometimes deciding which is the oldest annotation is an educated guess, but color of labels and inks and kinds of typewriters or printers help). For easy reference, the information starts with the number of the voucher with the acronym of the Herbarium visited when applicable. Please note that some Herbaria did not number their voucher specimens. In this case there might be only a stamp indicating the Herbarium where the specimen is currently kept. Each piece of information found on a label or written directly on the cardboard is separated from the next one by a slash sign repeated three times (///). Please note that a stamp might be included in the sequence of information, since it can provide useful information about the date of a specimen if not indicated in the main label. The most recent labels in the sequence usually refer to the identification of the specimen by taxonomists and are presented in chronological order, the earliest identification coming first. The sequence of sets of data finishes with the author's determination (introduced by author's initials), with a few notes about the specimen. In the notes, attention is drawn on the size/ richness of the specimens, usually through the number of racemes. In view of possible future collecting (e.g. matching with the date of collection), there is an indication about the phenology, whether the specimen was seen with flowers and/ or young/ green/ dry pods and/ or seeds. The notes end with the acronym of the visited Herbarium and the date (as day/ month/ year) when the specimen was studied (that date can be validated by consulting the records of visitors of each Herbarium); so the reader knows where that specimen can be studied/ asked for study. A specimen might have been seen on two visits, and thus two dates will be indicated in chronological order. The indication [x2] or [x3] means that the specimen exists as two or three sheets; if there is anything noteworthy, then the second or third sheet will be treated as another specimen.Because the coordinates could be critical for studies in phytogeography or in evaluation against abiotic stresses, if the coordinates were given on the (main) label, they are reported directly. If there none and if the location is precise enough, an estimate is provided, usually for the first collecting number; because it is an indirect data provided by the author, it will be written down in square brackets []. Similarly, given its importance in order to see the material one more time in its original habitat, if provided in abbreviated form or numerical form that could lead to confusion, the date might be reconfirmed in square brackets (in the format day/ month/ year), usually for the first collecting number. This confirmation is often possible because the author has explored the same area for the same species. Other notes such as appreciation/ interpretation of anything relevant on the labels will appear also in square brackets, so that the reader understands that this is not an original data. In some cases it was felt necessary to add [col.] to indicate clearly the name of the collector; similarly [det.] was added to indicate clearly the name of the taxonomist identifying the specimen. If both indications are without square brackets, it means that they were written as such on the label(s). Sometimes critical information, for example the name of the species or the collecting number might be missing and the author has seen a void space; this situation is reflected in the notes by [blanc] 'void'.For easy reference only, the name of the state/ department/ province will appear green (the black font of the original name has been turned green), and the name of the (main) collector and his/ her collecting number will appear blue (the black font of the original name has been turned blue). Note that the original black font can be reversed easily, so the user sees the original data as they were on the label(s). Similarly, all back slash signs could be eliminated to restore the original information found on the label(s).One should keep in mind that the author deals with specimens as individual cases and single sets of data, and on every visit as a novel case. This explains why specimens by the same collector(s) with the same collecting number are repeated in the list. The opinion of other taxonomists on the studied specimen is their, and the way Curators mounted plant parts and presented the labels is their too. That stated, the reader will notice some interesting convergences (or discrepancies) in the works of these different professionals.The reader will find the specimens seen by the author in alphabetical order of the species: P. albescens, P. costaricensis, P. debouckii, P. dumosus, P. persistentus and P. vulgaris. P. debouckii was included following the work by Rendón-Anaya et al. 2017 (in Phytotaxa 313 (3): 259-266). About P. dumosus the reader will find wild and weedy forms, the latter being found in wellestablished second growth forests (the records from South America), not from cultivated fields. P. persistentus was included into this section following the data given by A. Delgado-Salinas, R. Bibler & M. Lavin. 2006. Phylogeny of the genus Phaseolus (Leguminosae): a recent diversification in an ancient landscape. Syst. Bot. 31 (4): 779-791. P. vulgaris was treated as in the monograph without naming botanical varieties, focusing on wild forms, with the mention of a few weedy types (namely when found in the folders of wild forms in some Herbaria); cultivated types were excluded. In many cases, since the collector(s) does (do) not clearly state the biological status of the specimen at the collection site and on the label, the specimen is confirmed as wild ('sauvage') in the author's notes because this confirmation is critical for the future use of the data. updated 2/12/2019. Introducción a los 'Cahiers de Phaséologie'sección Phaseoli DC emend. Freytag.Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) AA 6713 Cali COLOMBIA; [email protected] NOTA ACLARATORIAMientras con el Dr. George F. Freytag estábamos finalizando la monografía (Freytag, G.F. & D.G. Debouck. 2002. Taxonomy, distribution, and ecology of the genus Phaseolus (Leguminosae-Papilionoideae) in North America, Mexico and Central America. SIDA , se acordó mutuamente con el Editor del Botanical Research Institute of Texas que el texto final no debería sobrepasar el límite de 300 páginas. Teníamos muchos especímenes que habíamos examinado y anotado conjuntamente en Mayagüez, o de manera independiente. Acordamos con el Editor que por lo menos una lista de los especímenes con las identificaciones estuviera en la monografía (páginas 291-294), para que los Curadores de los Herbarios tuvieran las identificaciones de los especímenes que amablemente nos permitieron estudiar. Desde 2002 más Herbarios fueron visitados (véase una lista completa al final de esta nota aclaratoria) de mi parte y más especímenes fueron anotados. Por razones obvias pocas revistas científicas aceptarían de publicar estos registros de manera completa. La publicación de estos 'Cuadernos de Faseología' en el sitio internet del banco de germoplasma del CIAT donde se conserva actualmente la mayor colección de fríjoles, era una manera lógica de meter esta información al alcance del público. El presente archivo es actualizado periódicamente cuando nuevas visitas a los Herbarios aumentan el número de especímenes de las especies perteneciendo a esta sección.La lista de los especímenes examinados por el autor en los Herbarios viene organizada de acuerdo con las secciones del género Phaseolus tales como se las reconoce en la monografía (op. cit.). La razón detrás de esta organización de los datos es práctica, por los números de especímenes estudiados, especialmente para las secciones que incluyen el fríjol común (es decir los Phaseoli) o el fríjol Lima (es decir los Paniculati). Para dar una información actualizada a los usuarios, la fecha del documento (la cual se encuentra al final del archivo) es la fecha de la cargada de los datos de cualquier espécimen de esta sección estudiado en el último Herbario visitado. Directamente después del título se encuentra la lista de los Herbarios y Museos de Historia Natural que conservan especímenes de esta sección en sus colecciones; estos Herbarios y Museos vienen mencionados en orden alfabético con los acrónimos de 'Index Herbariorum'. Dentro de cada sección, la información se presenta por cada especie reconocida actualmente como válida, y en orden alfabético de las especies para esta sección. Para cada especie la presentación sigue el orden alfabético de los países donde esta especie crece naturalmente (este cuaderno trata únicamente de las especies y formas silvestres, no de los fríjoles sembrados a propósito por la gente en cualquier parte del mundo). Para cada país, se sigue el orden alfabético de los departamentos/ estados/ provincias actualmente reconocidos para este país. Dentro de cada departamento/ estado/ provincia, los especímenes se presentan en el orden alfabético de los apellidos de los colectores, considerando el primer apellido cuando aplica. Si se reporta varios especímenes de un mismo colector, el reporte arranca con los números de colecta menores. Cuando hay varios especímenes con el mismo número de colecta, estos se presentan en el orden alfabético de los Herbarios (por sus acrónimos) que conservan estos especímenes. Los especímenes que fueron usados como tipos (indicados en rojo reforzado y según la categoría de tipos, el holotipo siendo el primero) se presentan directamente después del nombre de la especie. Hay dos razones detrás de esta presentación: primero, para el taxónomo el tipo es parte de la validación de la especie (y por lo tanto se sabe de cuál especie se trata), y segundo, en el caso que un usuario busca un tipo, será más rápido buscarlo en un lugar preciso del archivo (y esto para todas las secciones) en comparación a una búsqueda por área geográfica. Los tipos de las especies que fueron puestas en sinonimia siguen, en orden alfabético de los nombres de las especies, a menos que no hayan sido publicados de manera válida. En este último caso, los especímenes se ubican en la lista general (de la misma manera como lo hacen los Curadores). En algunos casos, los especímenes tipo vienen seguidos por aquellos especímenes por los cuales no hay información geográfica. En los casos donde sólo aparece el nombre del país, entonces estos especímenes vienen al inicio (en espera de más información) antes del primer departamento/ estado/ provincia mencionado en orden alfabético.Todas las notas que se encontraron escritas sobre cada espécimen en el día de la visita fueron registradas de la manera más cercana al original, y vienen reportadas en una secuencia temporal arrancando con la anotación más antigua. Decidir cuál era la anotación más antigua no fue siempre fácil, pero el color de las etiquetas y de las tintas y los tipos de máquinas de escribir y de las impresoras ayudaron. Para una referencia rápida, la información arranca con el número del ejemplar con el acrónimo del Herbario visitado cuando aplica. Hay que mencionar que algunos Herbarios no numeran sus especímenes. En este caso puede haber sólo el sello del Herbario donde el espécimen está conservado. Cada elemento de información que se encuentra escrito en una etiqueta o directamente sobre la cartulina viene separado del siguiente por una barra oblicua repetida tres veces (///). Favor notar que un sello puede ser incluido en la secuencia de informaciones porque puede dar una información útil sobre la edad de un espécimen si ésta no viene indicada en la etiqueta principal. Las etiquetas más recientes en la secuencia se refieren usualmente a la identificación del espécimen por parte de los taxónomos, y vienen en orden cronológico, la identificación más temprana siendo la primera. La secuencia de grupos de datos termina con la identificación de parte del autor (introducida por sus iniciales), con algunas notas sobre el espécimen. En estas notas, se llama la atención sobre el tamaño/ riqueza del espécimen, usualmente mediante el número de racimos. Con miras a futuras colectas y en correspondencia con la fecha de la colecta, se da una indicación de fenología, si el espécimen tiene flores y/o vainas jóvenes y/o vainas verdes y/o vainas secas y/o semillas. Las notas terminan con el acrónimo del Herbario visitado y con la fecha (en formato día/mes/ año) del estudio del espécimen durante la visita (esta fecha puede ser comprobada consultando los libros de registro de visitantes de cada Herbario). En consecuencia el lector sabe dónde un espécimen preciso puede ser estudiado o solicitado en prestamo. Un espécimen puede haber sido estudiado en dos fechas, y en consecuencia dos fechas aparecen, en orden cronológico. La indicación [x2] o [x3] significa que el espécimen existe como dos o tres ejemplares; si existe cualquier detalle que amerita ampliación de notas, entonces el segundo o tercer ejemplar será tratado como cualquier otro espécimen.Porque las coordenadas geográficas pueden ser de importancia crítica para los estudios de fitogeografía o evaluación contra estrés abióticos, en el caso que las coordenadas fueron escritas en la etiqueta (principal), se las reporta directamente. Si no hay coordenadas y en el caso que el lugar de colecta esté suficientemente preciso, se dan unas coordenadas estimadas, usualmente para el primer número de colecta. Porque se trata de datos indirectos dados por el autor, estarán escritos entre corchetes cuadrados []. De igual manera, por su importancia para volver a ver el material en su sitio original, especialmente si ha sido dada de manera abreviada o en forma numérica que puede prestarse a confusiones, la fecha puede ser re-confirmada en corchetes cuadrados (en el formato día/ mes/ año), usualmente para el primer número de colecta. Esta confirmación ha sido posible en varios casos porque el autor ha explorado la misma área para la misma especie. Otras notas tales como apreciaciones o interpretaciones de cualquier palabra escrita sobre la etiqueta y que sea relevante aparecerán también entre corchetes cuadrados, de tal manera que el lector entiende que no son datos originales. En algunos casos se vio la necesidad de añadir la abreviación [col.] para indicar claramente el nombre del colector de la muestra; de igual manera a veces fue necesario añadir la abreviación [det.] para indicar claramente el nombre del taxónomo quien identificó el material. En el caso que ambas abreviaciones estén sin corchetes cuadrados, esta situación significa que fueron escritas como tales en la etiqueta. A veces una información crítica, por ejemplo el nombre de la especie o el número de colecta puede estar faltando y el autor ha visto un espacio dejado en blanco; esta situación viene reflejada en las notas con la indicación [blanc] 'blanco' donde corresponde.Para referencia rápida solamente, el nombre del departamento/ estado/ provincia aparecerá en verde (la letra original negra ha sido cambiada a verde), y el nombre del colector (principal) y su número de colecta aparecerán en azul (la letra original negra ha sido cambiada a azul). Favor notar que la letra original negra puede revertirse fácilmente, para que el usuario vea los datos originales tales como estaban en la(s) etiqueta(s). De igual manera, todas las barras en oblicuo pueden ser eliminadas para volver a la información original de la(s) etiqueta(s).Es importante guardar en mente que el autor trata los especímenes como casos individuales y como conjuntos de datos por separado, y en cada visita como casos nuevos. Esta aproximación explica por qué los especímenes colectados por el mismo colector y con el mismo número de colecta se repiten en la lista. La opinión de otros taxónomos sobre el espécimen estudiado les pertenece, y la manera como los Curadores montan la muestra y presentan los datos igualmente pertenece a ellos. Bajo este entendimiento, el lector observará unas convergencias (o diferencias) interesantes en el trabajo de estos diferentes profesionales.El lector encontrará los especímenes estudiados por el autor en el orden alfabético de las especies: P. albescens, P. costaricensis, P. debouckii, P. dumosus, P. persistentus and P. vulgaris. P. debouckii fue incluido siguiendo el trabajo de Rendón-Anaya et al. 2017 (in Phytotaxa 313 (3): 259-266). Con relación a P. dumosus, el lector encontrará formas silvestres y formas malezas, estas últimas creciendo en bosque secundarios ya establecidos (los registros para América del Sur), pero no en campos cultivados. P. persistentus fue incluido en esta sección de acuerdo con los datos de A. Delgado-Salinas, R. Bibler & M. Lavin. 2006. Phylogeny of the genus Phaseolus (Leguminosae): a recent diversification in an ancient landscape. Syst. Bot. 31 (4): 779-791. El tratamiento de P. vulgaris fue igual a lo aplicado en la monografía sin nombrar variedades botánicas, enfocándose sobre las formas silvestres y con la mención de algunas formas malezas (se dio esta situación cuando las muestras estaban en la misma carpeta en el Herbario visitado); los materiales cultivados fueron excluidos. En muchos casos donde el colector no aclara el estado biológico del material en el sitio de colecta y en la etiqueta, se confirmó en las notas del autor que el espécimen era silvestre ('sauvage') porque esta confirmación tiene gran importancia para el uso futuro de los datos.actualizado el 2/12/2019. Au moment de finir la monographie avec George F. Freytag (Freytag, G.F. & D.G. Debouck. 2002. Taxonomy, distribution, and ecology of the genus Phaseolus (Leguminosae-Papilionoideae) in North America, Mexico and Central America. SIDA , un accord avait été conclu avec l'Editeur du Botanical Research Institute of Texas que la monographie ne devrait pas compter plus de 300 pages. Il y avait cependant un grand nombre de spécimens sur lesquels nous avions des observations et des notes prises soit ensemble à Mayagüez, soit séparément. Nous étions d'accord avec l'Editeur qu'au moins une liste des identifications soit présente dans la monographie (pages 291-294), afin que les Curateurs des Herbiers puissent avoir les identifications des spécimens qu'ils avaient eu l'amabilité de soumettre à notre examen. Depuis 2002 j'ai eu l'occasion de visiter d'autres Herbiers (la liste complète se trouve à la fin de cette note explicative) et de prendre des notes sur un plus grand nombre de spécimens. Pour des raisons évidentes peu de revues scientifiques accepteraient de publier ces notes dans leur entièreté. La publication de ces 'cahiers de phaséologie' sur le site internet de la banque de gènes du CIAT où la plus grande collection de haricots est actuellement conservée, était une façon de mettre ces informations à la disposition du public. Ce fichier est mis à jour périodiquement quand de nouvelles visites aux Herbiers permettent d'augmenter le nombre de spécimens des espèces appartenant à cette section.La liste des spécimens étudiés dans les Herbiers par l'auteur est organisée en suivant les sections du genre Phaseolus telles qu'elles sont reconnues dans la monographie (op. cit.). La raison pour cette organisation des données est pratique, étant donné le grand nombre de spécimens étudiés, particulièrement pour les sections qui contiennent le haricot commun (c'est-à-dire les Phaseoli) ou le haricot de Lima (c'est-à-dire les Paniculati). Dans le but de donner une information actualisée aux usagers, la date du document (qui se trouve à la fin du fichier) est celle du transfert des données de n'importe quel spécimen de cette section après la dernière visite d'un Herbier. Directement après le titre se trouve la liste des Herbiers et Muséums d'Histoire Naturelle qui conservent des spécimens de cette section dans leurs collections; ces Herbiers sont signalés en ordre alphabétique par les acronymes signalés dans 'Index Herbariorum'. Dans chaque section, l'information est présentée pour chacune des espèces actuellement valide, et dans l'ordre alphabétique des espèces de cette section. Pour chaque espèce la présentation suit l'ordre alphabétique des pays où l'espèce croît naturellement (ce cahier se réfère seulement aux espèces et formes sauvages de haricot, et non aux haricots plantés à dessein où que ce soit par les humains). Pour chaque pays, l'ordre alphabétique des départements/ états/ provinces actuellement connu(e)s est suivi. Pour chaque département/ état/ province, les spécimens sont présentés dans l'ordre alphabétique des noms des collecteurs, le premier nom de famille étant considéré en premier lieu. Au cas où plusieurs spécimens ont été collectés par le(s) même(s) collecteur(s), les moindres numéros de collecte viennent en premier lieu. Dans le cas où plusieurs spécimens sont présents avec le même numéro de collecte, l'ordre alphabétique des Herbiers conservant ces spécimens sera suivi. Les spécimens qui ont été utilisés comme types (avec indication en rouge renforcé pour la nature des types) viennent directement après la mention du nom de l'espèce. Il y a deux raisons pour cette situation: pour le taxonomiste le type contribue à la validation de l'espèce (et par conséquent on sait directement de quelle espèce il s'agit), et d'autre part dans le cas où un usager cherche un type la recherche sera plus rapide si le type occupe un endroit déterminé dans les fichiers plutôt que de devoir le chercher par origine géographique. Logiquement l'holotype vient en premier lieu. Les types des espèces placées en synonymie viendront ensuite, dans l'ordre alphabétique des noms d'espèces, à moins qu'elles n'aient pas été publiées de façon valide, et dans ce cas les spécimens se trouveront dans la liste générale (comme le font d'habitude les Curateurs des Herbiers). Dans quelques cas, les spécimens type sont suivis par les spécimens pour lesquels il n'y a pas d'information géographique. Dans les cas où le pays est indiqué sans plus d'information, ces spécimens suivent l'indication du pays et sont placés avant ceux avec département/ état/ province connu(e), par ordre alphabétique.Toutes les notes trouvées sur chaque planche d'herbier le jour de la visite ont été enregistrées comme elles ont été écrites, en respectant l'original le plus fidèlement possible, et ont été présentées en séquence chronologique en commençant par la note la plus ancienne. Décider quelle était la note la plus ancienne fut parfois un choix difficile, mais les couleurs des étiquettes et des encres et le type de machines à écrire ou imprimantes ont aidé. Pour une référence facile, l'information rapportée commence par le numéro de la planche d'herbier avec l'acronyme ou le nom de l'Herbier visité suivant le cas. Il faut noter que certains Herbiers ne numérotent pas leurs planches. Dans ce cas il peut y avoir seulement un cachet indiquant l'Herbier où le spécimen est actuellement conservé. Chaque groupe d'informations sur une étiquette ou écrites directement sur la planche est séparé du suivant par une barre oblique répétée trois fois (///). Il convient de noter qu'un cachet peut être inclus dans la séquence d'informations, car il peut apporter une information utile sur l'âge d'un spécimen si ce renseignement ne figure pas sur l'étiquette principale. Les étiquettes les plus récentes dans la séquence se réfèrent généralement à l'identification du spécimen par les taxonomistes et cette identification est présentée dans l'ordre chronologique, la plus ancienne identification venant en premier. La séquence des groupes d'informations se termine par l'identification de la part de l'auteur (introduite par ses initiales), avec quelques notes sur le spécimen. Dans ces notes, l'attention se porte sur la taille/ abondance du spécimen, mesurée d'habitude par le nombre de racèmes. En vue d'une collecte future éventuelle et en correspondance avec la date de collecte, il y a une indication de phénologie, si le spécimen provient d'une plante en floraison, et/ ou avec des jeunes gousses (jgo), et/ ou avec des gousses vertes (go vertes), et/ ou avec des gousses sèches (go sèches) et/ ou avec des graines. Ces notes se terminent avec l'acronyme de l'Herbier visité et la date (en format jour/ mois/ année) de l'étude du spécimen (cette date peut être validée en consultant le registre des visiteurs de chaque Herbier). De cette façon le lecteur sait où un spécimen peut être étudié ou demandé en prêt pour étude. Un spécimen peut avoir été étudié au cours de deux visites, et par conséquent deux dates en ordre chronologique seront indiquées. L'indication [x2] or [x3] signifie que le spécimen a été trouvé monté sur deux ou trois planches; au cas où il y a quoique ce soit d'intéressant, la seconde ou la troisième planche sera considérée comme un autre spécimen.Comme les coordonnées géographiques peuvent être de valeur critique pour des études de phytogéographie ou d'évaluation pour les stress abiotiques, si ces coordonnées ont été écrites sur l'étiquette (principale), elles seront rapportées directement. Au cas où les coordonnées sont absentes et si le lieu de collecte est suffisamment précis, une estimation des coordonnées est fournie, d'habitude pour le premier numéro de collecte; comme il s'agit d'une donnée indirecte fournie par l'auteur, cette estimation des coordonnées sera écrite entre crochets []. Pareillement, étant donné son importance pour retrouver le matériel dans son site original, la date de collecte, surtout si elle se trouve sous forme abréviée ou sous une forme qui peut prêter à confusion, peut être reconfirmée entre crochets (dans le format jour/ mois/ année), d'habitude pour le premier numéro de collecte. Cette confirmation est souvent possible parce que l'auteur a exploré la même zone géographique pour la même espèce. D'autres notes comme des appréciations ou interprétations d'écritures sur les étiquettes figureront aussi entre crochets, de sorte que le lecteur comprend qu'il ne s'agit pas de données originales. Dans quelques cas il s'est avéré nécessaire d'ajouter l'abréviation [col.] pour indiquer clairement le nom du collecteur; pareillement l'abréviation [det.] a été ajoutée pour indiquer clairement le nom du taxonomiste qui a identifié le spécimen. Si ces deux abréviations existent sans crochets, cela signifie qu'elles ont été écrites comme telles sur l'étiquette. Parfois une information critique, comme par exemple le nom de l'espèce ou le numéro de collecte, est manquante, et l'auteur a trouvé un espace blanc à cet endroit; cette situation est reflétée dans les notes par l'indication [blanc].Pour la facilité de référence et détection, le nom du département/ état/ province apparaîtra en vert (la lettre originale en noir a été convertie en vert), et le nom du collecteur et son numéro de collecte apparaîtra en bleu (la lettre originale en noir a été convertie en bleu). La conversion à la lettre originale en noir est facile et permet de retrouver les données originales comme sur l'étiquette. Pareillement, toutes les barres obliques peuvent être éliminées pour retrouver les informations originales trouvées sur l'(les) étiquette(s).Il convient de se souvenir que l'auteur traite chaque spécimen comme un cas particulier et chaque groupe d'informations sur une étiquette comme un groupe indépendant, et à chaque visite comme un nouveau cas. Ceci explique pourquoi les spécimens trouvés par le(s) même(s) collecteur(s) avec le même numéro de collecte sont répétés dans la liste. L'opinion d'autres taxonomistes sur le spécimen étudié est leur opinion, et la façon dont les Curateurs présentent les étiquettes et montent les matériels leur appartient également. Ceci précisé, le lecteur constatera des convergences (ou des différences) intéressantes dans le travail de ces différents professionnels.Le lecteur trouvera ci-après les spécimens étudiés par l'auteur dans l'ordre alphabétique des espèces: P. albescens, P. costaricensis, P. debouckii, P. dumosus, P. persistentus et P. vulgaris. P. debouckii a été inclus suivant le travail de Rendón-Anaya et al. 2017 (in Phytotaxa 313 (3): 259-266). A propos de P. dumosus, le lecteur trouvera des formes sauvages et rudérales, ces dernières souvent établies dans des forêts secondaires (les registres pour l'Amérique du Sud), mais ne provenant pas de champs cultivés. P. persistentus a été inclus dans cette section suivant les résultats de A. Delgado-Salinas, R. Bibler & M. Lavin. 2006. Phylogeny of the genus Phaseolus (Leguminosae): a recent diversification in an ancient landscape. Syst. Bot. 31 (4): 779-791. P. vulgaris a été traité comme dans la monographie sans faire de distinction entre les variétés botaniques, en se concentrant sur les formes sauvages, avec la mention occasionnelle de quelques formes rudérales (notamment si ces spécimens se trouvaient confondus avec les formes sauvages dans les mêmes casiers des Herbiers); les plantes cultivées ont été exclues. Dans plusieurs cas, quand le collecteur n'a pas clairement défini le statut biologique du spécimen au site de collecte et sur l'étiquette, le spécimen a été confirmé comme 'sauvage' dans les notes de l'auteur du fait de l'importance de cette information pour l'usage ultérieur des données. actualisé 2/12/2019. ","tokenCount":"5099"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"809a05155b7d7c3e5a797d13872ad59a","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://repository.cimmyt.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/0cb451ea-d0a2-479b-b629-2a5ce6556ade/content","id":"2125099436"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"98bc176b-163c-4f0e-8e29-9c90c6b24ebd","pagecount":"15","content":"Evidence that genomic selection (GS) is a technology that is revolutionizing plant breeding continues to grow. However, it is very well documented that its success strongly depends on statistical models, which are used by GS to perform predictions of candidate genotypes that were not phenotyped. Because there is no universally better model for prediction and models for each type of response variable are needed (continuous, binary, ordinal, count, etc.), an active area of research aims to develop statistical models for the prediction of univariate and multivariate traits in GS. However, most of the models developed so far are for univariate and continuous (Gaussian) traits. Therefore, to overcome the lack of multivariate statistical models for genome-based prediction by improving the original version of the BMTME, we propose an improved Bayesian multi-trait and multi-environment (BMTME) R package for analyzing breeding data with multiple traits and multiple environments. We also introduce Bayesian multioutput regressor stacking (BMORS) functions that are considerably efficient in terms of computational resources. The package allows parameter estimation and evaluates the prediction performance of multi-trait and multi-environment data in a reliable, efficient and user-friendly way. We illustrate the use of the BMTME with real toy datasets to show all the facilities that the software offers the user. However, for large datasets, the BME() and BMTME() functions of the BMTME R package are very intense in terms of computing time; on the other hand, less intensive computing is required with BMORS functions BMORS() and BMORS_Env() that are also included in the BMTME package.Genomic selection (GS) is a methodology used in plant breeding that was proposed by Meuwissen et al. (2001). It is a type of marker-assisted selection that consists of genotyping and phenotyping a training sample (reference population); with the help of statistical models, predictions of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) or phenotypic values of the testing sample (validation population) are obtained for which only genome-wide dense genetic marker data were available. GS does not depend on prior knowledge about a few, large-effect genes or QTL, since all markers are used simultaneously in the training of the statistical models. GS was first used in animal breeding (Hayes and Goddard 2010), but nowadays is being implemented in many crops, for example, maize (Crossa et al., 2014), cassava (de Oliveira et al., 2012), wheat (Rutkoski et al., 2011), sugar beet (Würschum et al., 2013), tomato (Yamamoto et al., 2016), rice (Spindel et al., 2015), apple (Kumar et al., 2012), pea (Burstin et al., 2015), cranberry (Covarrubias-Pazaran et al., 2018) and many others.In recent years, an active area of research has begun to develop and improve existing statistical models for genomic selection (GS) due to the fact that successful GS implementation is strongly related to the accuracy of the predictions performed by statistical models. However, because there are no universally superior machines for prediction, many models have been proposed. For example, most of the proposed models are univariate and few are multivariate. Most of the univariate models are appropriate for continuous and Gaussian phenotypes, but there are several appropriate models for binary, ordinal and count traits. Some examples of implementations of models for non-Gaussian, non-continuous traits are unordered categorical (Heuer et al., 2016), binomial (Technow and Melchinger 2013) and ordinal categorical (Montesinos-López et al., 2015a,b). While multivariate models are used almost routinely nowadays, for the joint analysis of multiple-traits (e.g., Jia and Jannink 2012) as well as multiple-environments (e.g., Burgueño et al., 2012) and even multiple populations (e.g., Olson et al., 2012), there are few multivariate practical software programs for continuous and Gaussian phenotypes and there are scarcely any models and software for other types of response variables. To the best of our knowledge, almost none of the currently reported models consider mixed phenotypes including continuous, binary, ordinal, count, etc. traits. For this reason, it is clear that to increase the power of GS technology, it is of paramount importance to develop more models and improve the existing ones.Multi-trait models in GS have been applied by many scientists. For example, Calus and Veerkamp (2011), Jia and Jannink (2012), Jiang et al. (2015), He et al. (2016), Schulthess et al. (2017), andCovarrubias-Pazaran et al. (2018) reported that multi-trait analysis outperforms unitrait analysis in terms of prediction accuracy and that the larger the correlation between traits, the larger the benefit of multi-trait analysis. The Multi-Trait Model (MTM) of de los Campos and Grüneberg ( 2016) is a mixed multi-trait Gaussian model under the Bayesian framework that uses a Gibbs sampler for inferences. Furthermore, Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking (BMORS) is a Bayesian version of the multi-trait regressor stacking method proposed by Spyromitros-Xioufis et al. (2012;2016). The training of BMORS has two stages: (1) a single univariate model is implemented using the GBLUP model, and (2) the resulting predictions are directly included by BMORS in an additional training stage. Thus, the concept of BMORS is that a second-stage model will correct the predictions of the first-stage model [using the predictions of the first-stage univariate GBLUP model (Spyromitros-Xioufis et al., 2012;2016)]. Montesinos-Lopez et al. (2016) were the first to develop a comprehensive theory for a Bayesian multi-trait multi-environment (BMTME) model for genome-based prediction. An improved version of BMTME allows general covariance matrices by using the matrix normal distribution that facilitates easy derivation of all full conditional distributions and permits a more efficient model in terms of time of implementation Montesinos-López et al. (2018a,b,c). In general, the matrix normal distribution model considerably improved in terms of implementation time over the time required by the original BMTME. Also, the Gibbs sampler for implementing the new BMTME model can be found in Montesinos-López et al. (2018a), and the priors of the model are given in detail in Montesinos-López et al. (2018b). Montesinos-López et al.(2018a) provide the appropriate notations used for the matrix-variate normal distribution that is a generalization of the multivariate normal distributions to matrices. This plays a key role in building the BMTME model. The original software used by Montesinos-Lopez et al. (2016) to fit the BMTME was the first attempt to implement the multi-trait multi-environment theory when analyzing real data; however, the lack of the necessary optimization algorithms for efficiently applying the software made the original BMTME difficult to apply to real data.It is also important to point out that even though the existing R statistical software for Bayesian analysis like 'stan' (https://mc-stan.org/) and 'JAGS' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_another_Gibbs_sampler) are very flexible for implementing Bayesian analysis, they are not user-friendly because the user needs a certain level of programming skills to correctly implement them (Stan Development Team 2018;Plummer 2018). These two software programs (stan and JAGS) also require more computational resources for their implementation since they are built not with conjugate priors. It is documented that multivariate analysis improves parameter estimation (Schulthess et al., 2017). For this reason, we agree with Castro et al. (2013) and Huang et al. (2015), who stated that multi-trait analysis is a powerful tool for clarifying the relationship and the effect of each studied variable and for building more efficient prediction models.Due to the background of plant breeders, not only are new models needed, but the existing ones need to be improved. We also need reliable, efficient, user-friendly software in which breeders can implement the existing GS models. One popular R package in the context of genomic selection for continuous and ordinal data are the BGLR package of Pérez and de los Campos (2014) that was built under the Bayesian framework and is very flexible because it allows the use of a genomic relationship matrix (derived from marker or pedigree), and also allows implementing various methods like BayesA, BayesB, Bayes Lasso, Bayes Ridge and GBLUP and can deal with moderate datasets; however, it only allows the implementation of univaritate models. Therefore, to contribute to this requirement, we developed a Bayesian multi-trait and multienvironment (BMTME) R software that allows the implementation of multi-trait and multi-environment data for performing parameter estimates and evaluating the prediction performance of multiple traits that are studied in many environments. This BMTME package is different from existing ones [sommer (Covarrubias-Pazaran 2016), BGGE (Granato et al., 2018), ASREML (Gilmour et al., 1995) and MCMCglmm (Hadfield et al., 2010)] because it takes into account the genetic correlation between traits and between environments. The main difference of BMTME with sommer and ASREML is that our package was built under a Bayesian framework, while sommer and ASREML were based on a classical approach using restricted maximum likelihood. The difference between BGGE and our model is that our model is not only for multienvironment data but rather for multi-environment and multi-trait data simultaneously. On the other hand, the MCMCglmm package only allows a general covariance matrix for traits but not for environments, like the proposed BMTME package; however, it is important to point out that the MCMCglmm package allows modeling not only continuous responses but also binary, ordinal and counts.The main objective of this research was to illustrate the application of the new BMTME with two real toy datasets; with these we show how to use the functions available in the BMTME package for implementing multienvironment (BME function), multi-trait and multi-environment data (BMTME function), as well as the Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking functions BMORS () and BMORS_ENV (). These two functions are very different to what the existing software [sommer (Covarrubias-Pazaran 2016), BGGE (Granato et al., 2018), ASREML (Gilmour et al., 1995) and MCMCglmm (Hadfield et al., 2010)] implements, since the theory behind this function is that of stacking methods. Stacking methods consist of training multiple learning algorithms for the same dataset and then combining the predictions to obtain the final predictions. In this study we used the initial BMTME of Montesinos-Lopez et al. (2016) but improved it by using the matrix variate normal distribution (Montesinos-López et al., 2018c) and the appropriate priors given by Montesinos-López et al. (2018a) and Montesinos-López et al. (2018b).Multiple-environment Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (GBLUP) model: Since genotype • environment interaction is of paramount importance in plant breeding, the following univariate linear mixed model is often used for each trait:where y ij represents the response of the jth line in the ith environment (i ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; I, j ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; JÞ. E i represents the effect of the ith environment, g j represents the random genomic effect of the jth line, with1 is a genomic variance, G g is of order J • J and represents the genomic relationship matrix (GRM) and is calculated (VanRaden 2008) as G g ¼ WW T p , where p denotes the number of markers and W is the matrix of markers of order J • p. The G g matrix is constructed using the observed similarity at the genomic level between lines, rather than the expected similarity based on pedigree. Further, gE ij is the random interaction term between the genomic effect of the jth line and the ith environment with gE ¼ ðgE 11 ; . . . ; gE IJ Þ T $ Nð0; s 2 2 I I 5GÞ, where s 2 2 is an interaction variance, and e ij is a random residual associated with the jth line in the ith environment distributed as Nð0; s 2 Þ where s 2 is the residual variance.The current BMTME model was implemented by Montesinos-López et al. (2018a,b,c). For a complete understanding of its description, first we provide the notations used for the matrix-variate normal distribution that plays a key role in building the BMTME model. Matrix-variate normal distribution is a generalization of the multivariate normal distribution to matrices. The (n•p) random matrix, M, has a matrixvariate normal distribution denoted as M $ NM n•p ðH; V; ΣÞ, if and only if, the (np•1) random vector vecðMÞ is distributed as multivariate normal as N np ðvecðHÞ; Σ5VÞ; therefore, NM n•p denotes the (n (Srivastava and Khatri 1979). vecð:Þ and 5 are the standard vector operator and Kronecker product, respectively. Unlike in a multivariate normal model where the data are concatenated into a single vector of length np, in a matrix-variate normal model, the data ðMÞ are in an n•p matrix where each column is a trait (Montesinos-López et al., 2018a). Therefore, the proposed BMTME model is defined as follows:where Y is of order n • L, with L the number of traits and n ¼ J • I, where J denotes the number of lines and I the number of environments, X is of order n • I, b is of order I • L, since b ¼ fb il g for i ¼ 1; ::; I and l ¼ 1; ::; L; Z 1 is of order n • J, b 1 is of order J • L and contains the genotype • trait interaction term since b 1 ¼ fgt jl g where gt jl is the effect of the genotype • trait interaction term for l ¼ 1; ::; J and for j ¼ 1; ::, where gEt jil is the effect of genotype • environment • trait interaction for j ¼ 1; ::; J, for i ¼ 1; ::; I and for l ¼ 1; ::; L.Vector b 1 is distributed under a matrix-variate normal distribution as NM J•L ð0; G g ; Σ t Þ; where G g is of order J • J and represents the Genomic Relationship Matrix (GRM) and is calculated using the VanRaden ( 2008) method as G g ¼ WW T p , where p denotes the number of markers and W the matrix of markers of order J • p; and Σ t is the unstructured genetic (co)variance matrix of traits of orderwhere R e is the unstructured residual (co)variance matrix of traits of order L • L, and G g is the genomic relationship matrix described above (Montesinos-López et al., 2018a). The BMTME model resulting from equation ( 2 Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking (BMORS): The proposed BMORS is a Bayesian version of the multi-trait regressor stacking method proposed by Spyromitros-Xioufis et al. (2012;2016). The training of BMORS consists of two stages. In the first stage, L single univariate models are implemented using the GBLUP model given in equation ( 1), but instead of using the resulting predictions directly as the final output, the BMORS includes an additional training stage where a second set of L meta-models are implemented for each of the L traits under study. Each meta-model is implemented with the following model:where the covariates Ẑ1ij ; Ẑ2ij ; . . . ; ẐLij represent the scaled predictions of each trait obtained with the GBLUP model in the first-stage analysis, and b 1 ; . . . ; b L are the beta coefficients for each covariate. The scaling of each prediction was performed by subtracting its mean (m lij ) and dividing by its corresponding standard deviation (s lij ), that is, Ẑlij =ðŷ lij 2 m lij Þs 21 lij , for each l ¼ 1; . . . ; L. Therefore, the BMORS model contains as predictor information the scaled predictions of its response variables yielded by the first-stage models. In other words, the BMORS model is based on the idea that a secondstage model is able to correct the predictions of a first-stage model using information about the predictions of other first-stage models (Spyromitros-Xioufis et al., 2012;2016).Mada dataset: This dataset was obtained from the study by Ben Hassen et al. (2018). The dataset is composed of a sample of 188 wheat lines evaluated for six traits. Each of the lines was evaluated in one environment. The lines were genotyped and 32,066 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were obtained with a heterozygosity rate , 5% and a minor allele frequency (MAF) . 5%. A subset of the data were included in the package that includes 30 lines, and we named this dataset Mada. For more details, see the study by Ben Hassen et al. (2018). Raw markers are not included, and we provide the genomic relationship matrix (GRM) calculated according to the method of VanRaden (2008).Maize dataset: This dataset was obtained from the study by Montesinos-Lopez et al. (2016). It consists of a sample of 309 maize lines evaluated for three traits: anthesis-silking interval (ASI), plant height (PH), and grain yield (GY). Each trait was evaluated in three optimal environments (Env1, Env2 and Env3). The lines were genotyped, 681,257 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were obtained, and markers with more than 20% missing values were removed. After that, markers were imputed using observed allelic frequencies, and markers with MAF , 0.05 were removed, so that at the end of the quality control and imputation, 158,281 SNPs were still available for further analyses. To load this dataset in the package, we used only 30 lines, and we named this dataset Maize. For more details, see the study by Montesinos-Lopez et al. (2016).We implemented cross-validation (CV) to evaluate the prediction performance. Two types of CV were implemented: K-fold cross-validation and random cross-validation.K-fold cross-validation: Under this CV, the dataset was partitioned into K subsamples of equal size; each time K-1 of them were used for training (TRN) and the remaining one for testing (TST). In this CV, one observation cannot appear in more than one fold. In the design, some lines can be evaluated in some, but not all, target environments, which mimics a prediction problem faced by breeders in incomplete field trials. This CV strategy is exactly the same as the strategy denoted as CV2 that was proposed and implemented by Jarquín et al. (2017), where a certain portion of test lines (genotypes) in a certain portion of test environments is predicted, since some test lines that were evaluated in some test environments are assumed to be missing in others.Random cross-validation: This CV strategy randomly splits the dataset into training (TRN) and testing data (TST). For each such split, the model is fitted to the TRN data, and predictive accuracy is assessed using the TST data. Since we used sampling with replacement, one observation may appear in more than one partition. The implemented CV mimics a prediction problem faced by breeders in incomplete field trials, where some lines may be evaluated in some, but not all, target environments. Since N ¼ J • I denotes the total number of records per each available trait, then to select lines in the TST dataset, we fixed the percentage of data to be used for TST [PTesting]. Then PTesting•N (lines) were chosen at random, and subsequently for each of these lines, one environment was randomly picked from I environments. The cells selected through this algorithm were allocated to the TST dataset, while the cells (ijÞ that were not selected were assigned to the TRN dataset. Lines were sampled with replacement if J , PTesting • N, and without replacement otherwise (López-Cruz et al., 2015). The metrics used to measure the prediction accuracy under both CV strategies were Pearson's correlation and the mean arctan absolute percentage error (MAAPE), which has the advantage that no zero estimates are produced when the response variable contains many zeros. They were calculated from each trait-environment combination for each of the testing sets and the average of all random partitions (folds) is reported as a measure of prediction performance.The data used in this study are included in the BMTME package, so once that package is installed, the datasets can be loaded into the R environment.The aim of this section is to illustrate the use of the R BMTME package for analyzing multi-environment and multi-trait and multi-environment data from plant breeding programs. The BMTME package was built following the paper by Montesinos-Lopez et al. (2016) and implemented in the R statistical software (R Core Team 2018).The development version of the BMTME package can be installed directly from the GitHub repository (https://github.com/frahik/ BMTME). In order to install the package, it is necessary to install the appropriate compilers; the installation process and the required tools depend heavily on the operating system. For example, in Windows it is necessary to install Rtools (https://cran.r-project.org/bin/windows/ Rtools/), and in modern versions of macOS, it is necessary to install XCode from App Store or the development tools for R from CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/bin/macosx/tools/). In the case of Linux, it is necessary to install the C++ compilers included in your distribution, for example, g++ from GNU (https://www.gnu.org). Once the tools have been installed, use the following command to install the package within your R session: install.packages(9devtools9) devtools::install_github(9frahik/BMTME9) You can also find the package in the CRAN repository, and you can use the following command (see below) to install a version of the package from CRAN. This will avoid the need to install some dependencies manually and install the Rtools software using the following command: install.packages(9BMTME9)The R package BMTME is available at the following link: https:// cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BMTME/index.html.The results are given in three main sections. The first section illustrates the use of the BME function for implementing multi-environment analysis, while the second and the third sections illustrate the use of the BMTME and BMORs functions for implementing multi-trait and multi-environment analyses.This example illustrates how to fit a model when there is only one environment and several dependent variables. First, we load the library: library(BMTME) Then we load the Mada dataset: data(\"WheatMadaToy\")Then we define the model to be adjusted; since the dataset only includes an environment where several dependent variables were evaluated, the BME model is used. To implement it, first we need to order the dataset as follows: phenoMada ,-(phenoMada[order(phenoMada$GID),]) rownames(phenoMada)=1:nrow(phenoMada) head(phenoMada) GID PH FL FE NS SY NP 1 9 29.7776 -8.8882 -4.93900 1.04100 169.06 28.8025 2 11 3.2210 -7.1111 -0.36940 -3.88940 -107.19 58.2516 3 12 6.1670 -9.5337 -12.43680 2.58250 -160.54 17.1278 4 15 6.8117 4.6377 11.78860 -0.03378 235.70 -19.6571 5 20 -14.4480 3.2525 6.40780 -14.23460 131.87 42.2962 6 21 -13.2185 3.8902 0.09722 5.35680 164.06 36.8239 This is a very important step in the analysis, because if the dataset is not ordered correctly, this may cause conflicts and produce incorrect estimations. Also, with the head() function we printed the phenotypic dataset, where the required format of the dataset requires a first column with the identifiers of the lines and then the names of all the traits. It is important to respect this format to be able to successfully implement the multi-environment (trait) datasets.Then, the design matrix for the genetic effects should be generated, as shown below.LG ,cholesky(genoMada) ZG ,model.matrix($0 + as.factor(phenoMada$GID)) Z.G ,-ZG % Ã % LG Then, we can extract the phenotypic responses that were converted to matrix object as shown in the following command: Y ,as.matrix(phenoMada[, -c( 1)]) Finally, the model was adjusted, and 30,000 iterations were used to adjust the model. It is important to point out that bs is the block size for sampling from posterior distributions; we suggest using a value of at least 50 but less than 1000.Next we used the names() function to identify all the available outputs of the fitted model.For demonstration purposes, we will only extract the first 6 predictions for the 6 evaluated traits. We also plotted the observed values against the predicted values for each trait, as follows (see Figure 1): plot(fm, trait = 9FL9) Since the code provided above is only appropriate for parameter estimation, now we provide the code required to evaluate the prediction accuracy using the BME() function. For this reason, first we built the random CV strategy with 10 random partitions, each with TRN = 80% and TST = 20%, using the following code: Here we see that the best prediction in terms of APC was found in trait PH (0.5612), while the worst was in trait SY (0.0242). However, in terms of MAAPE, the best prediction was observed in trait NP (0.7070), while the worst was found in trait FL (0.7751). With the boxplot(pm) function, we created a plot summarizing the predictions in terms of Pearson's correlation, but if users want this plot in MAAPE terms, they need to use the following code: boxplot(pm, select=\"MAAPE\") (Figure 2).It is important to point out that the BME function can be used with only 1 testing set that can be defined by the user, as shown in the following example: Since only one training set and one testing set were used, the standard errors for both metrics appear with NaN, given that it is not possible to calculate the standard error because only one testing set is available.This example illustrates how to fit a model with multiple traits and multiple environments. To do this, use the Maize dataset; first, load the data using the following function: data(\"MaizeToy\") Next, order the dataset, rename the rows of the phenotypic dataset and print the first six observations of the data in order to see the structure required of the data, which consists of a first column that includes the lines, a second column that includes the environments and third, fourth and fifth columns that correspond to the traits under study.phenoMaizeToy,-(phenoMaizeToy[order(phenoMaizeToy$Env, phenoMaizeToy$Line),]) rownames(phenoMaizeToy)=1:nrow(phenoMaizeToy) head(phenoMaizeToy) Line Env Yield ASI PH This step is very important for avoiding an incorrect estimation process. Then the design matrices for the line effects, the environment and the genotype•environment interaction are generated:LG ,cholesky(genoMaizeToy) ZG ,model.matrix($0 + as.factor(phenoMaizeToy$Line)) Z.G ,-ZG % Ã % LG Z.E ,model.matrix($0 + as.factor(phenoMaizeToy$Env)) ZEG ,model.matrix($0 + as.factor(phenoMaizeToy$Line):as. factor(phenoMaizeToy$Env)) G2 ,kronecker(diag(length(unique(phenoMaizeToy$Env))), data.matrix(genoMaizeToy))LG2 ,cholesky(G2) Z.EG ,-ZEG % Ã % LG2 Y ,as.matrix(phenoMaizeToy[, -c(1, 2)]) Finally, the following command is used to fit the model: fm ,-BMTME(Y = Y, X = Z.E, Z1 = Z.G, Z2 = Z.EG, nIter =15000, burnIn =10000, thin = 2,bs = 50) To create a graph with a summary of the predictions in terms of Pearson's correlation and in terms of MAAPE, we used the plot() function (Figure 5). Because the names are composed of the evaluated traits and environments, we added the parameter las = 2 to show the labels in a vertical way and to distinguish the complete names of the trait-environment combinations. In addition, we used the par() function and the mar parameter to modify the margins of the graph. par(mar = c(6,4,2,1)) plot(pm, las = 2)Figure 5 shows that the lowest average Pearson's correlation obtained was observed in the ASI_KAK and ASI_KTI trait-environment combinations, while the highest average Pearson's correlation was obtained in the PH_KAK trait-environment combination. It is possible to create a boxplot with the results of the MAAPE, using the following command (Figure 6): boxplot(pm, select =\"MAAPE\", las = 2)Figure 6 shows that the lowest MAAPE was for PH_KAK (best prediction), while the highest MAAPE was for the ASI_KAK traitenvironment combination (worst prediction).The BMORS_ENV Function This function is useful for predicting whole environments using the remaining environments as training. Next we provide the R code for evaluating the prediction performance of the same maize dataset, but using the KAK environment as training and the KTI and EBU environments as testing. Two important things to point out for using this function are: (a) that we provided not only the matrix of response variables, but also a data.frame that contains, in the first column, the names of the environments followed by information on all response variables, and (b) we did not create a separate file for specifying the training and testing individuals; we only specified in testingEnv which environments are used as testing; the remaining environments are used by default as training, as shown below. For this example, we specified that covModel = 9BayesB9, which means that the Bayesian BayesB model will be implemented for the second stage of the model where it is implemented (equation 3). In covModel, in addition to Bayesian Ridge regression (BRR) and BayesB, we can also implement BayesA, BayesC and Bayesian Lasso (BL); however, the BRR model is implemented by default.To create a graph with Pearson's correlation or the MAAPE index, we used the barplot() function, as shown below (Figure 7): barplot(pm)Figure 7 shows that the lowest Pearson's correlation obtained was in the ASI_EBU trait-environment combination, while the highest Pearson's correlation was obtained in the Yield_KTI trait-environment combination.As mentioned in the introduction, we propose a Bayesian R package for implementing multi-environment and multi-trait and multi-environment analysis for parameter estimation and for evaluating prediction accuracy. We illustrate the four main functions [BME(), BMTME(), BMORS() and BMORS_Env()] of the BMTME package with real toy datasets starting from the type and preprocessing required to make correct use of each of these datasets for parameter estimation and for evaluating prediction performance. It is important to point out that one advantage of the BME and BMTME functions is that, in addition to being used to evaluate the prediction accuracy, they can also be used for parameter estimation, which allows estimating the random effects (lines, lines•environments for each trait) and variance-covariance matrices of genetic (for traits and environments) and residual (for traits) effects. The BMORS() and BMORS_Env() functions are not useful for obtaining parameter estimates of covariances between traits and environments because they implement univariate analysis at both stages. However, they have two important advantages: (a) they allow implementing even more complex predictors than the one specified in equation (1), which modifies the ETA list used to create the predictor, and (b) the computational resources required to implement it are much less than those needed by the BMTME() function for implementing multitrait and multi-environment data. This last point is observed in Figure 8 where the implementation time for the Mada and Maize datasets is reported. The figure shows that in the Mada dataset, the BMORS model was more than 15 times faster than the BMTME model (25.246/ 1.621= 15.572), while in the Maize dataset, the BMORS model was more than 37 times faster than the BMTME model (25.668/ 0.692= 37.093); these results were obtained with 10000 iterations of the Gibbs sampler. The BMTME R package provides very synthetic summaries (tables and plots) of the prediction accuracies, which are ready to be interpreted  and used to write the results in a manuscript. Additionally, we provide three types of cross-validations useful for breeders that are implemented in this R package, which is very simple to use and implement.The main disadvantage of the BME() and BMTME() functions of the BMTME R package is that the computational resources required for their implementation are very demanding; fortunately, the parameter estimates involved are stabilized very quickly even with few iterations.The toy examples used in this article are for illustration purposes and to help users follow, as easily as possible, the necessary steps for running the different processes. Comparing them with other software of similar type is not possible, as no similar software for simultaneously fitting multitrait multi-environment is currently available. For example, the MTM (de los Campos and Grüneberg 2016) is an efficient Bayesian multi-trait software but is not multi-trait and multi-environment. Future research on benchmarking the BME() and BMTME() functions of the BMTME package with other potential software to be developed in terms of computing time for processing large datasets should be performed. However, the BMORS() and BMORS_Env() functions that also belong to the BMTME R package are very efficient in terms of computational resources, which gives the user an alternative option for performing this type of analyses.It is important to point out that the proposed BMTME package is different from existing multi-trait analysis software such as ASREML (Gilmour et al., 1995), sommer (Covarrubias-Pazaran 2016), BGGE (Granato et al., 2018) and MCMCglmm (Hadfield et al., 2010). In addition to taking into account variance-covariance matrices of traits (genetic and residual), it also takes into account the genetic covariance (correlation) between environments, which is estimated from the data. This can help improve parameter estimates and prediction accuracy when the degree of correlation between traits is moderate or high.Multi-trait models are preferred over univariate-trait models because they have the following advantages: (a) they produce higher prediction accuracy because they have more information (direct or indirect) and better data connectedness (Colleau et al., 2009); (b) they improve index selection because optimal weight factors can be obtained for the total merit index (Colleau et al., 2009); and (c) they allow obtaining more precise genetic and residual covariances and incorporating them into expected breeding value (EBV) estimates for across-location, acrosscountry or across-region evaluations (Thompson and Meyer 1986;Schaeffer 2001).Note that the two datasets used for illustrating the main functions of the BMTME R package are datasets with few lines (toy datasets) with the main intention that users interested in using the package can obtain results very quickly and practice using the software. However, the structure of the data are exactly the same as the structure of the data produced in plant breeding programs. The two toy datasets are included in the BMTME package to facilitate its implementation and allow users to practice using the R software.To conclude, this paper presents the R package BMTME which allows the implementation of multi-trait, multi-trait and multienvironment analysis for estimating parameters (genetic correlation between traits and environments, residual correlation between traits, random effects of lines and lines•environments) and evaluating the prediction accuracies of many traits simultaneously. We illustrate the implementation of the main functions (BME, BMTE and BMORS) of the R package with two toy real datasets that are very common in plant breeding programs. We provide details of the characteristics that each of the datasets must have, and show how to build the CV strategies available in the package, how to prepare the data to implement the main functions of the BMTME package, how to extract the parameter estimates and how to obtain the summary and plots of prediction accuracies resulting from the implemented CV strategy. The computing time of the BME() and BMTE() functions of the BMTME R package for large datasets is significantly more demanding (in terms of time) than for the toy examples used in this study.Ben Hassen, M., J. Bartholomé  ","tokenCount":"5596"}

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"e5503c0ff6abda98509d126c372bcce4","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/Brief/8480-SWB-Brief-Intro.pdf","id":"207569915"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"bacbf1b8-97f9-4840-9c6e-99dbd06232a9","pagecount":"4","content":"Produire du bois-énergie de façon durable dans le paysage de Yangambi, notamment par le biais de l'agroforesterie communautaire et de techniques de carbonisation améliorées.Réduire la dégradation des mangroves dans la région du Littoral grâce à des fumoirs à poissons améliorés, à de meilleures pratiques de ramassage du bois et à des alternatives de gestion.Promouvoir la production de charbon de bois à partir de chutes de bois dans la région du Littoral en construisant un réseau de producteurs disposant d'unités de transformation du bois (UTB).Améliorer la gestion du bois-énergie dans les zones de la région Est du pays accueillant des réfugiés, notamment par :• Le développement de systèmes agroforestiers modèles avec des espèces à croissance rapide et des arbres alimentaires dans les zones sous pression ;• La création d'un modèle économique et d'une stratégie de marketing pour l'amélioration de l'utilisation nale, particulièrement en ce qui concerne les techniques de cuisson, les réchauds de cuisine et les réchauds commerciaux.Développer des plans d'action communautaires dans les comtés de Baringo et de Kitui a n de promouvoir une meilleure gestion forestière et une exploitation forestière durable, ainsi qu'une plus grande e cacité de la transformation et de la carbonisation.Soutenir le Comité environnemental du comté de Baringo dans l'élaboration et la mise en oeuvre d'une feuille de route pour la production durable de charbon de bois à partir de Prosopis juli ora.Soutenir le comté de Kitui dans le déploiement de plans de mise en oeuvre de la transition pour les fonctions forestières décentralisées, ainsi que dans l'élaboration d'une feuille de route pour la production et l'utilisation durable et locale du bois-énergie.Exploiter les chutes de bois des scieries de Kisangani pour remplacer partiellement l'utilisation de charbon de bois non durable.Soutenir une production plus e cace auprès des associations de producteurs de charbon de bois dans le district de Choma, notamment via des études sur l'e cacité des fours à charbon de bois pour éviter d'épuiser les réserves de matière dans les zones de production et d'approvisionnement en bois-énergie.","tokenCount":"332"}

data/part_5/0619670928.json

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+{"metadata":{"gardian_id":"2f76baae4ede8dfbe4eb4e282d2891aa","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/22a97d26-23b4-4e70-b71a-0145b66b33ad/retrieve","id":"123626047"},"keywords":[],"sieverID":"dd816f7c-5c40-4072-b1a5-576fca10c513","pagecount":"8","content":"• Os pequenos produtores em África cultivam mais de 4 milhões de hectares de feijões anualmente, proporcionando alimentos para mais de 100 milhões de pessoas. • A África Oriental tem o maior índice de consumo de feijões per capita a nível mundial, cerca de 50 a 60 kg por pessoa por ano. • Os feijões são ricos em proteínas (22%); são também uma boa fonte de ferro, zinco, fibra e carbohidratos complexos. • Os feijões constituem uma fonte de rendimento significativa e cada vez mais importante para os agregados familiares rurais. O valor de vendas anuais do continente africano estimou-se em mais de 580 milhões de dólares americanos em 2005.O feijão comum (Phaseolus vulgaris L), originalmente nativo da América do Sul, é actualmente muito cultivado em todo o continente africano, principalmente por mulheres camponesas. Sendo um legume, o feijão melhora a fertilidade do solo bem como a disponibilidade de alimentos e o rendimento das famílias.Estabelecida em 1996, a Aliança Pan-Africana de Pesquisa de Feijão (PABRA) é um consórcio de redes regionais de feijão que congrega organizações de pesquisa agrária nacionais, cientistas do Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) e representantes de organizações doadoras. O objectivo da PABRA é melhorar a segurança alimentar, o rendimento e a saúde de produtores agrícolas carentes de recursos em África através da pesquisa de feijões.Para alcançar este objectivo a PABRA trabalha em parceria com os produtores e comunidades rurais, organizações não-governamentais (ONGs), comerciantes e outros parceiros do sector privado. Os principais beneficiários do trabalho da PABRA são as mulheres rurais, que são as principais responsáveis pela produção e manuseamento pós-colheita de feijões. Outros beneficiários importantes são as populações urbanas pobres, que dependem dos feijões como fonte de proteína.A PABRA facilita a pesquisa colaborativa entre os parceiros, o que envolve, para além da implementação, a planificação, definição de prioridades, monitorização e avaliação. A abordagem colaborativa gera impor-tantes economias de escala resultantes da partilha de conhecimentos, troca de germoplasma e disseminação de tecnologias e métodos pelos diferentes países.A Aliança facilita também a criação de capacidade. Com o apoio da PABRA as redes regionais identificam, desenvolvem e disponibilizam peritos/conhecimentos nacionais em áreas como melhoramento de plantas, pesquisa participativa dos produtores, disseminação de sementes, desenvolvimento de agro-empresas e gestão integrada de pragas e doenças (GIPD). Graças ao grande destaque dado à criação de capacidade, o número de cientistas nacionais que trabalham a nível regional para a PABRA aumentou de 5 em 2003 para 23 em 2005.Os principais parceiros na pesquisa colaborativa e na criação de capacidade na área de melhoramento de plantas são as Universidades de Nairobi e Quénia e a Estação de Pesquisa Agrária de Chitedze, em Lilongue, Malawi.A PABRA é facilitada pelo CIAT, que é também um parceiro na pesquisa estratégica da Aliança. A A PABRA tem duas redes regionais de pesquisa de feijões bem estabelecidas: Os feijões trepadeiros melhorados desenvolvidos e disseminados pelos parceiros da PABRA têm rendimentos três vezes superiores aos dos feijões selvagens tradicionais. A sua resistência ao apodrecimento da raiz torna-os bem adequados a zonas altas e húmidas com grande densidade populacional onde esta doença é mais destrutiva. Além disso, o seu crescimento vertical faz com que ocupem menos espaço nos campos, deixando livre mais espaço para outras culturas.O Ruanda, primeiro país africano onde estas variedades surgiram, lidera os esforços de pesquisa regional. O ISAR está a melhorar novas variedades que combinam a resistência às doenças e pragas a outras características desejáveis.Os feijões trepadeiros continuam a expandirse do Ruanda para outros países. Estes feijões foram amplamente adoptados por camponeses nas terras altas do sudoeste do Uganda, zonas centrais e ocidentais do Quénia e norte da Tanzânia.Aliança é regida por um comité de orientação que se reúne anualmente com os participantes da rede e os representantes das organizações doadoras para rever as actividades realizadas e planificar as acções futuras.Desde 1996 que os parceiros da Aliança enfrentaram com sucesso difíceis problemas de pesquisa, tais como pragas e doenças do feijão e problemas de fraca fertilidade dos solos. Também alcançaram rápidos progressos na disseminação de novas variedades de feijão.Os princípios dos anos 90 foram momentos difíceis para os produtores e consumidores de feijão nas áreas mais intensivamente cultivadas da África Oriental: a doença da podridão da raiz do feijão dizimou a colheita causando grande carência de alimentos e a subida exorbitante de preços.Para resolver este problema os cientistas do CIAT e do Instituto de Ciências Agronómicas do Ruanda (ISAR) realizaram uma intensa pesquisa que resultou na identificação das variedades de feijão selvagem e trepadeiro resistentes a essa doença. Para além de terem sido mais amplamente disseminadas no Ruanda, estas variedades foram também introduzidas na zona ocidental do Quénia e no sudoeste do Uganda. Um estudo de impacto realizado na zona ocidental do Quénia mostrou que, em 2001, até 80% dos agregados familiares tinham adoptado pelo menos uma das variedades resistentes do feijão selvagem, o que resultou na melhoria da segurança alimentar.O uso de variedades resistentes foi combinado com uma abordagem de GIPD que associa os conhecimentos indígenas aos conhecimentos dos pesquisadores. Os resultados mostram que esta combinação é efectiva no combate tanto da doença da podridão da raiz do feijão como de outras doenças e pragas.A PABRA adopta uma abordagem holística de ecossistemas para os dois problemas: solos pobres e pragas e doenças da cultura. Os esforços na área de melhoramento de plantas para combater estes problemas estão integrados no desenvolvimento e teste de outras intervenções.A Aliança identificou e promoveu o uso de variedades de feijão que podem crescer em solos pobres, aliando isto a testes de soluções localmente disponíveis, tais como estrumes verdes e correcção orgânica dos solos. Os produtores de plantas desenvolveram variedades melhoradas que combinam tolerância à pobre fertilidade do solo com resistência a pragas e doenças e outras características desejáveis.Para combater as pragas e doenças os camponeses estão a usar uma diversidade de tecnologias e métodos novos juntamente com variedades melhoradas de feijão. Isto inclui a plantação atempada e o uso de extractos da planta de malmequer, amargoseira e de outras espécies. Estas tecnologias de GIP (Gestão Integrada de Pragas) reduzem o uso de pesticidas químicos. A plantação ou aplicação de legumes nos solos, tal como Tephrosia, restaura a fertilidade do solo ao mesmo tempo que protege contra as pragas.Algumas das variedades melhoradas desenvolvidas pelos parceiros da PABRA requerem menos tempo de cozedura que as variedades tradicionais. As mulheres reportaram que o consumo de lenha pode ser reduzido para quase metade, diminuindo a mão-de-obra ao mesmo tempo que se beneficia o meio ambiente.A PABRA estimulou o desenvolvimento de grupos de pesquisa de produtores dinâmicos. Em Março de 2006 havia mais de 300 desses grupos e mais de 5.000 produtores participantes receberam formação em testes das variedades e produção de sementes. A partilha de conhecimentos entre produtores acelerou muito a disseminação e adopção da tecnologia.Os programas nacionais foram encorajados a realizarem a selecção e melhoramento das variedades em participação com os camponeses. Estas abordagens garantiram que as novas variedades estivessem disponíveis para os produtores muito antes da sua libertação formal.Para se acelerar ainda mais a disseminação, a PABRA apoiou o desenvolvimento da produção deHaile Wako, de 47 anos de idade, é pai de quatro filhos e cultiva feijões desde a sua infância. Haile e a sua família vivem na aldeia de Boffa na região do Vale Central da Etiópia. \"Decidi produzir feijões de variedade melhorada porque sabia que poderiam render 400 birr por mês\", disse Haile. Este valor é equivalente a cerca de 48 dólares americanos, consideravelmente acima da média do rendimento mensal de muitos produtores de poucos recursos na Etiópia, que frequentemente totaliza 30 dólares ou menos.Desde 2001 que Haile é um produtor contratado pela Empresas de Sementes da Etiópia, que produz sementes de base para as comunidades locais, ONGs e cooperativas. Ele também é comerciante de sementes por conta própria. Com os rendimentos provenientes do negócio dos feijões Haile comprou uma bomba de água e um camião e construiu uma casa de tijolos para a sua família. Ele também arrendou mais terra para expandir o seu negócio de produção e venda de feijão.Com o apoio do CIAT os pesquisadores nacionais e extensionistas adoptaram abordagens não convencionais para a disseminação de tecnologias. Tais abordagens envolveram o uso de locais como centros de saúde, lojas de comerciantes de cereais e até mesmo quiosques de bebidas não alcoólicas, a fim de se alcançar novos utilizadores.Esta iniciativa, conhecida como abordagem de parceria concertada, foi muito bem sucedida. Em apenas 18 meses após o seu lançamento em 2003 cerca de 2,5 milhões de agregados familiares na África Oriental, Central e Austral tinham recebido variedades melhoradas de feijão. Por outras palavras, a iniciativa já ultrapassou a meta original de 2 milhões de agregados até 2008. Só na Etiópia e em apenas um ano de campanha foram distribuídas 137 toneladas de sementes melhoradas aos produtores, muitos deles produtores pobres que estavam a testar o germoplasma melhorado pela primeira vez.Um factor essencial para o sucesso tem sido o empacotamento das sementes em quantidades pequenas de custo acessível. Quando se usa pacotes com quantidades tão pequenas como 50 g de sementes, bastam 50 toneladas para se alcançar um milhão de produtores. Mais de 80 parceiros aderiram à iniciativa assinando acordos com institutos de pesquisa nacionais para colaborarem na produção e/ou disseminação de sementes.semente baseada na comunidade como uma agroempresa. Foram desenvolvidos manuais técnicos sobre o assunto em oito línguas diferentes, que foram fornecidos aos produtores e organizações de extensão. De acordo com os estudos de impacto, os produtores que adoptaram as variedades melhoradas reportaram rendimentos mais altos, com redução de perdas devido a pragas, doenças e solos pobres, melhoraram a nutrição e a saúde familiar e tiveram receitas mais altas.Em alguns países a pesquisa e o desenvolvimento do feijão trouxe retornos económicos impressionantes. Por exemplo, na Tanzânia a taxa interna de rentabilidade dos investimentos de pesquisa durante o período de 20 anos, de 1985 a 2005, foi estimado em 60%. Na zona oriental da República Democrática do Congo o rendimento dos produtores proveniente da produção de feijões aumentou aproximadamente cinco vezes.Os rendimentos mais altos não são apenas gerados pelo aumento das vendas de feijão para consumo, mas resultam também da venda da semente, que se tornou agora um negócio lucrativo em alguns países.A adopção da tecnologia de feijão não depende da riqueza inicial dos produtores: os produtores de vários países, particularmente no Ruanda, reportaram que a probabilidade de adopção de tais tecnologias era similar entre produtores muito pobres e os mais ricos da comunidade. Muitos dos que adoptam estas tecnologias são mulheres, que viram os seus rendimentos aumentar substancialmente como resultado das mesmas. Para se reduzir o risco de os homens tentarem apropriar-se dos ganhos do que é tradicionalmente uma cultura de mulheres, a PABRA capacitou grupos de mulheres e os seus provedores de serviços para iniciarem e gerirem uma agro-empresa.Os produtores reportaram benefícios adicionais na forma de exposição a novos provedores de serviços, como crédito e fornecedores de insumos agrícolas, assim como nova informação sobre saúde e nutrição. 7 constantemente novas ameaças. Além da podridão da raiz do feijão, outras doenças críticas que necessitam de ser controladas são a mancha angular das folhas, antracnose, ferrugem da folha, necroses bacterianas comuns e vírus do mosaico do feijão. As pragas prioritárias incluem larvas do caule do feijão, pulgões e agrótis. Em ambos os casos a selecção e a melhoria das plantas para aumentar a resistência ou tolerância será combinada, como agora, com as abordagens de IPDM que maximizem os ganhos dos produtores e a saúde do ecossistema.Os feijões são muito vulneráveis a grandes variações climáticas, especialmente à seca. Pelo menos em algumas partes da região é provável que as secas se tornem numa ameaça, devido ao aumento do aquecimento global do planeta. Nos últimos anos notaram-se esforços cada vez maiores dos parceiros da PABRA para desenvolverem variedades que combinam a resistência à seca com outras características desejáveis. Estes esforços devem continuar e intensificar-se, com as novas variedades resultantes a serem seleccionadas e testadas para imediata disseminação e libertação.Os esforços de disseminação de tecnologias baseadas na semente e outras tecnologias devem ser redobrados. Os padrões de adopção revelados pelos estudos de impacto apontam para duas necessidades. Primeiro, lançar os esforços de disseminação nas áreas que foram até agora negligenciadas, já que esta é a maneira de se alcançar a população pobre e os produtores marginalizados que foram previamente pouco expostos a novas tecnologias. Segundo, expandir o número de variedades disponíveis, criando deste modo grande estabilidade na produção e na segurança alimentar através do aumento da diversidade. A disseminação de tecnologias baseadas no conhecimento (tais como a GIPD), que têm estado sempre mais atrasadas que as tecnologias de sementes, deve receber um destaque especial.A contínua propagação de HIV/SIDA requer o aumento de esforços para melhorar a contribuição dos feijões para a nutrição da população que vive com a doença. Isto significa mais do que desenvolver e disseminar novas variedades ricas em minerais; também será necessário melhorar a ligação com os trabalhadores de programas de saúde e nutriçãoOs feijões são importantes na luta que a África empreende para inverter o seu actual declínio e começar a avançar em direcção à meta dos Objectivos de Desenvolvimento do Milénio (MDG) que visam diminuir para metade a fome e a pobreza até 2015. A segunda década da PABRA trará, por conseguinte, mais desafios que a primeira. O que deve a Aliança fazer?O enfoque da PABRA sobre as tecnologias baseadas na semente foi bem sucedido e a melhoria de variedades, como fonte dessas tecnologias, continuará a ser uma actividade chave. O combate às pragas e doenças deve ser intensificado e disseminado visto que aparecerão O HIV/SIDA está a paralisar a agricultura familiar em vastas áreas de África. Os produtores perdem os membros activos da família e a possibilidade de transmitirem os conhecimentos relativos à actividade agrícola de uma geração para outra, além da perda de segurança alimentar, receitas e bens. Os alimentos podem-se tornar escassos e a dieta menos diversificada, levando à fome e malnutrição crónica.Para aliviar as necessidades nutricionais da população afectada por HIV/SIDA a PABRA desenvolveu feijões ricos em ferro e zinco. A Aliança presta também uma atenção especial às tecnologias que reduzem a mão-de-obra e aumentam ao mesmo tempo a produtividade. Os feijões são uma cultura atractiva para as famílias que vivem com HIV/SIDA porque requerem menos tempo de cultivo que os cereais. A mistura dos dois tipos de feijões, selvagem e trepadeiro, conjugada com o plantio prematuro ou tardio, pode também reduzir o tempo de sacha das ervas daninhas.Os parceiros da PABRA estão a trabalhar juntos para ajudar as famílias ruandesas que vivem com HIV/SIDA a melhorarem a sua nutrição e a usarem melhores métodos e receitas de cozedura do feijão. O projecto disseminou quatro variedades de feijão melhoradas a cerca de 12.000 agricultores cujos agregados ou comunidades estão afectados por HIV/SIDA.  Para garantir que os feijões continuem a ser uma opção lucrativa para os pequenos produtores (mesmo com o aumento da produção) será importante explorar novas opções de processamento e abrir novos mercados regionais.Se os preços dos feijões e outros produtos agrícolas de rendimento puderem ser sustentados, os agricultores estarão mais dispostos a investir na sua produção, especialmente na melhoria da fertilidade dos solos.Dar aos camponeses de baixos recursos a possibilidade de adoptarem novas tecnologias proporcionando-lhes acesso ao crédito, insumos agrícolas e informações irá, provavelmente, continuar a ser um grande desafio durante a próxima década. A PABRA trabalhará com outras organizações para resolver este constrangimento gigantesco, aprendendo com os pequenos mas crescentes números de casos de sucesso já evidentes em toda a região.","tokenCount":"2590"}