TST: update xfail xarray version check in to_xarray test
Started to see xpass in https://github.com/pandas-dev/pandas/pull/61594, so updating the version check here. Not sure this is entirely covered by CI, but tested this locally with a few different xarray versions.
Owee, I'm MrMeeseeks, Look at me.

There seem to be a conflict, please backport manually. Here are approximate instructions:

1. Checkout backport branch and update it.

```
git checkout 2.3.x
git pull
```

2. Cherry pick the first parent branch of the this PR on top of the older branch:
```
git cherry-pick -x -m1 7def76a79361c8f6aa2893d9a559da03c6cb6d3a
```

3. You will likely have some merge/cherry-pick conflict here, fix them and commit:

```
git commit -am 'Backport PR #61648: TST: update xfail xarray version check in to_xarray test'
```

4. Push to a named branch:

```
git push YOURFORK 2.3.x:auto-backport-of-pr-61648-on-2.3.x
```

5. Create a PR against branch 2.3.x, I would have named this PR:

> "Backport PR #61648 on branch 2.3.x (TST: update xfail xarray version check in to_xarray test)"

And apply the correct labels and milestones.

Congratulations — you did some good work! Hopefully your backport PR will be tested by the continuous integration and merged soon!

Remember to remove the `Still Needs Manual Backport` label once the PR gets merged.

If these instructions are inaccurate, feel free to [suggest an improvement](https://github.com/MeeseeksBox/MeeseeksDev).
                 Backport -> https://github.com/pandas-dev/pandas/pull/61652