[backport 2.3.x] TST: update xfail xarray version check in to_xarray test (#61648)
Backport of #61648 

Probably not needed to backport because we might not get the latest xarray versions in the envs of the 2.3.x branch, but still useful in case someone runs the tests with more up to date xarray
Not sure why we get the failures in the CI, I don't think they happen in `main`. And I don't remember any recent PR fixing those. > Not sure why we get the failures in the CI, I don't think they happen in `main`.

Currently it is the python-dev windows one that is failing. It has been failing consistently the last few days while I have been doing backports. 
Quickly checking, this was not yet failing last week when the 2.3.0 release was done. Comparing that build with the first failing one of this week, there are various things that updated. It's a newer version of the image, python updated from 3.13.3 to 3.13.4, cython updated from 3.1.1 to 3.1.2.

What seems fishy is that the error message is saying "LINK : fatal error LNK1104: cannot open file 'python313t.lib'", but this is not for a free-threaded build.

Now, it seems that Python 3.13.4 has several unintended regressions, which are fixed in 3.13.5 (https://www.python.org/downloads/release/python-3135/, one related to building on windows), so it is probably just a matter of waiting until we get 3.13.5 through the setup action. And the reason it is not failing on main is because there 3.13 is tested through a conda env (https://github.com/pandas-dev/pandas/pull/61333), and conda-forge directly updated from 3.13.3 to 3.13.5, avoiding the issue