""" Layer 3: Industry-Level Economic Response ======================================= Predicts how industries respond to trade flow disruptions using multi-output regression and time series models. """ from dataclasses import dataclass from typing import Any, Dict from tipm.config.layer_configs import IndustryConfig @dataclass class IndustryResponse: """Industry response prediction""" sector_impacts: Dict[str, float] substitution_effects: Dict[str, float] cost_adjustments: Dict[str, float] capacity_utilization: Dict[str, float] employment_effects: Dict[str, float] class IndustryResponseLayer: """Layer 3: Industry-Level Economic Response""" def __init__(self, config: IndustryConfig): self.config = config self.is_fitted = False # Industry mappings self.industry_sectors = [ "agriculture", "mining", "manufacturing", "electronics", "automotive", "textiles", "chemicals", "food_processing", "energy", "services", "construction", "transportation", ] def fit(self, industry_data: Any = None) -> "IndustryResponseLayer": """Train industry response models""" # Placeholder - would train on historical industry response data self.is_fitted = True return self def predict(self, trade_impact: Any) -> IndustryResponse: """Predict industry-level responses to trade disruptions""" if not self.is_fitted: raise ValueError("Layer must be fitted before prediction") # Extract supply chain disruption info disruption_scores = getattr(trade_impact, "supply_chain_disruption", {}) # Simulate industry responses sector_impacts = {} substitution_effects = {} cost_adjustments = {} capacity_utilization = {} employment_effects = {} for sector in self.industry_sectors: # Base impact from trade disruption base_impact = disruption_scores.get(sector, 0.1) sector_impacts[sector] = base_impact substitution_effects[sector] = base_impact * 0.6 # 60% substitution effect cost_adjustments[sector] = base_impact * 1.2 # 120% cost pass-through capacity_utilization[sector] = 1 - (base_impact * 0.3) # Capacity reduction employment_effects[sector] = -base_impact * 0.4 # Employment reduction return IndustryResponse( sector_impacts=sector_impacts, substitution_effects=substitution_effects, cost_adjustments=cost_adjustments, capacity_utilization=capacity_utilization, employment_effects=employment_effects, ) def fit(self, X, y=None): """Fit the industry response model.""" pass def predict(self, X): """Predict industry response impacts.""" return None