diff --git "a/index.html" "b/index.html" --- "a/index.html" +++ "b/index.html" @@ -2,1332 +2,1247 @@ - - + Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025 — Interactive Research Presentation - - - - + + + + + -
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Executive Summary

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Vietnam’s economy maintained robust momentum in 2025. GDP grew 6.9% YoY in Q1 and 7.96% in Q2; first-half growth reached 7.52% — the strongest H1 since 2011, driven by services and manufacturing amid global trade tensions and US tariffs [1, 4]. Inflation stayed contained within a 3–4.5% target range, unemployment remained low at 2.20% in Q1 2025, and FDI inflows accelerated, underscoring investor confidence [2, 8, 13].

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H1 2025 GDP growth at 7.52% marks the highest mid-year pace since 2011 [4].
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Government’s 2025 growth target (8.3–8.5%) exceeds multilateral forecasts (ADB 6.6%, WB 5.8%, IMF 5.2%), implying upside ambition with execution risk [2, 16].
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FDI momentum remains strong: US$18.4bn registered (+51% YoY) and US$8.9bn disbursed in the first five months; H1 total US$21.51bn (+32.6% YoY) [12, 13].
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Retail sales in Q1 2025 reached VND 1.708 quadrillion (~US$66.8bn), up 9.9% YoY, signaling resilient domestic demand [4].
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+ Executive Summary + Methodology + Key Findings + Data Dashboard + Key Indicators 2025 + Sectoral Analysis + Challenges & Risks + Historical Comparison + Economic Outlook + Conclusion + Sources & Citations + Appendices + + +
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Executive Summary

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Vietnam's economy maintained robust momentum in 2025. GDP expanded 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 2025, following 6.9% in Q1, bringing first-half growth to 7.52%—the highest since 2011. Growth was led by industry and services, supported by resilient domestic fundamentals, strong FDI inflows, and low unemployment, despite global trade tensions and tariff headwinds.

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GDP Growth Q2 2025 (y/y)
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7.96%
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vs Q1 6.9%
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Key Performance Snapshot

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7.96%
GDP Growth Q2 2025 [1]
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7.52%
GDP Growth H1 2025 [4]
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3.57%
Inflation (Jun 2025) [4]
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2.20%
Unemployment (Q1 2025) [4]
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- Macro stability - Resilient trade - FDI inflows -
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H1 2025 GDP Growth
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7.52%
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Highest H1 since 2011
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Inflation (Jun 2025)
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3.57%
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Within target range (3–4.5%)
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Unemployment (Q1 2025)
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2.20%
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Historically low
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Sources: [4], [1], [16], [2]
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Methodology

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Methodology

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This presentation synthesizes officially reported indicators and reputable international forecasts. Data points are drawn from Vietnam's General Statistics Office (GSO), international institutions (IMF, ADB), and business intelligence outlets cited below. Narrative sections distill the provided report text and organize findings by theme to enhance readability and analytical clarity.

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Data Sources

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Primary statistics are drawn from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO) and Ministry of Planning and Investment, with cross-validation against IMF, ADB, and World Bank publications. FDI and macro indicator time series are benchmarked to Trading Economics and Vietnam Investment Review where applicable [2, 4, 8, 12, 13, 16].

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  • GDP, inflation, labor market: GSO, IMF, ADB, WB
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  • FDI inflows: MPI, VIR, Trading Economics
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  • Retail sales: GSO
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Compilation & Processing

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  • Standardize growth metrics to YoY percentages.
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  • Forecast benchmarks presented alongside actuals; government targets shown as range midpoint with proper notation.
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  • Visualizations implemented via Canvas (no external JS frameworks). Datasets exported as CSV for reproducibility.
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All figures are directly sourced from the provided report text and cited sources; no additional estimates were introduced.
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+ Data pipeline and validation +
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    + - Cross-checked national statistics with international databases where available (e.g., GDP growth, inflation, FDI). + - Presented all quantitative figures exactly as reported in the source text. + - Forecasts are attributed to originating institutions and contextualized against government targets. + - Visualizations use unit-consistent scales and annotated tooltips for transparency. +
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Primary sources include GSO [4], IMF [2][6], and ADB [16]; complementary references listed in the References section.

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+ Assumptions and scope +
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    + - Risk heatmap reflects qualitative severity inferred from the narrative (not quantitative risk modeling). + - The FDI donut visualizes disbursement as a share of registered capital for the first five months of 2025. + - Historical GDP line chart presents Q1 year-on-year growth 2020–2025 as reported. +
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- Quality assurance checks -
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  • Cross-reference of GDP growth metrics across sections for consistency.
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  • Unit harmonization (%, US$, VND) and explicit labeling.
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  • Source tagging for each KPI and dataset row.
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Key Economic Indicators 2025

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Growth outpaces peers while inflation is contained. Forecasts by multilaterals are below the government’s target range [2, 16].

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Key Findings

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  • Vietnam recorded 7.52% GDP growth in H1 2025, led by services and manufacturing, despite external headwinds.
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  • Inflation remained contained (3.57% in June 2025), preserving purchasing power and policy space.
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  • FDI posted strong momentum: US$21.51bn in H1 (+32.6% y/y); US$18.4bn registered and US$8.9bn disbursed in the first five months.
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  • Labor markets remain stable with unemployment at 2.20% in Q1 2025.
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  • International forecasts (IMF, ADB) are more conservative than the government's 8.3–8.5% target, implying an ambitious policy agenda.
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Citations: [4], [2], [16], [12]
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Interactive Data Dashboard

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2025 Growth: Actuals vs Forecasts

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Comparing quarterly and H1 actuals with year-end GDP forecasts. Government target is displayed at midpoint of the 8.3–8.5% range [2, 16].
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Q1 GDP Growth, 2020–2025 (y/y)
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+ GDP growth +
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Sources: [4], [1]
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Q1 YoY GDP Growth (2020–2025)

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Year-on-year growth in Q1 across 2020–2025: 3.21, 4.85, 5.42, 3.46, 5.98, 6.93% [1, 4].
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2025 GDP Growth Forecasts
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+ Forecast (%) + Gov. target band: 8.3–8.5% +
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Sources: [16] ADB, [2][6] IMF, report text (World Bank), [17]
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FDI Composition (First 5 months, 2025)

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Registered: US$18.4bn; Disbursed: US$8.9bn. H1 total FDI reached US$21.51bn (+32.6% YoY) [12, 13].
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FDI Disbursement Rate (First 5 months, 2025)
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+ Disbursed / Registered +
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Sources: [12], [17]
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Forecast Heatmap (2025)

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GDP and inflation forecasts from IMF, ADB, and World Bank; government target shown for GDP only [2, 16].
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Risk Factors Heatmap (qualitative)
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+ Narrative-based severity +
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Risk
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Severity
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Trade
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Tariffs
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Geo-Political
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FDI Dependence
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Macro Stability
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Assessment
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High
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High
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High
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Moderate
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Elevated
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Moderate
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Based on report narrative. See “Challenges & Risk Factors.”
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Inflation remains within the manageable 3–4.5% range (3.24% in May; 3.57% in June) [4].
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Forecast dispersion highlights conservative external views relative to domestic targets (IMF 5.2%, WB 5.8%, ADB 6.6% vs government 8.3–8.5%) [2, 16].
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Sectoral Analysis

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Key Economic Indicators 2025

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Primary Growth Drivers

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GDP Growth Performance

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  • Q1 2025: 6.9% (y/y)
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  • Q2 2025: 7.96% (y/y)
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  • H1 2025: 7.52%
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Sources: [4], [1]

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2025 GDP Forecasts

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  • Services: Major contributor to GDP growth [4].
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  • Manufacturing: Sustains recovery trajectory [4].
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  • Exports: Continue to anchor growth despite headwinds [4].
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  • Banking: Earnings projected +17% in 2025 on credit growth (+15%) [15].
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  • World Bank: 5.8%
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  • ADB: 6.6%
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  • IMF: 5.2%
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  • Government Target: 8.3–8.5%
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Retail sales in Q1 2025 rose 9.9% YoY to VND 1.708 quadrillion (~US$66.83bn), reinforcing domestic demand strength [4].
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Sources: [16], [2][6], [17]

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Context & Sensitivities

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Global trade tensions and tariffs present downside risks to export-oriented sectors, yet Vietnam’s competitiveness and FDI pipeline provide buffers [9, 13].

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  • Trade
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  • Manufacturing
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  • Banking
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  • Retail
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    Inflation & Labor

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    • Inflation: May 3.24%; June 3.57% (highest YTD)
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    • IMF 2025 CPI forecast: 2.9%
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    • ADB 2025 CPI forecast: 4.0%
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    • Unemployment (Q1 2025): 2.20%
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    Sources: [4], [2], [16]

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    FDI & Retail

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    • FDI (first 5 months 2025): Registered US$18.4bn; Disbursed US$8.9bn
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    • FDI (H1 2025): US$21.51bn (+32.6% y/y)
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    • Retail sales (Q1 2025): VND 1.708 quadrillion (US$66.83bn), +9.9% y/y
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    Sources: [12], [4], [13], [17]

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+ All + Growth + Inflation + Labor + FDI + Retail + Forecast +
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Category Indicator Period Value NotesSources
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+ Last updated: + Tip: Click column headers to sort; use chips to filter. +
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Challenges & Risk Factors

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Key Risks

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Sectoral Analysis

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Primary Growth Drivers

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  1. Global trade tensions impacting exports [9].
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  2. US tariff policies pressuring exporters [9].
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  3. Geopolitical instability elevating uncertainty [14].
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  4. Potential overdependence on FDI; inflation vigilance advised [15].
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  5. Safeguarding macro stability (debt, inflation control) [2].
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  6. Services sector: major contributor to GDP growth
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  7. Manufacturing: sustained recovery and development
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  8. Export industries: remain the economic backbone
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  9. Banking: projected +17% earnings in 2025 on +15% credit growth
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Policy stance should balance growth support with macroprudential safeguards and targeted social buffers [2].
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Risk Mitigation Strategies

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  • Diversify export markets and products.
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  • Strengthen domestic demand via targeted fiscal measures.
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  • Enhance economic resilience, maintain policy space.
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  • Maintain macro stability and monitor leverage/inflation [2].
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Retail Performance

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Q1 2025 retail sales reached VND 1.708 quadrillion (US$66.83bn), up 9.9% y/y. Low unemployment and controlled inflation support domestic demand.

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Sources: [4]

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See also: Dashboard • Outlook
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Historical Comparison

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Recent Performance

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  • 2024 GDP growth: 7.1% [1].
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  • 2025 growth may moderate due to external factors; long-term fundamentals remain resilient [2].
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  • Q1 YoY GDP growth (2020–2025): 3.21; 4.85; 5.42; 3.46; 5.98; 6.93 (%) [1, 4].
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Interpretation

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Post-pandemic recovery phases show normalization and renewed momentum through 2024–2025, with services and manufacturing as anchors while policy prudence contains inflation [2, 4].

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Challenges and Risk Factors

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  • Global trade tensions constrain export activity.
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  • US tariff policies pressure export-oriented businesses.
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  • Geopolitical instability adds to uncertainty.
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  • Overdependence on FDI raises structural concerns.
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  • Growth must be balanced against macroeconomic stability, debt, and inflation risks.
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Qualitative severity visualized in the heatmap (above). Sources: Report narrative; references [1][2][16][17].

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Outlook & Projections

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Near-term Prospects (2025)

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Growth is expected to remain solid despite uncertainty. The government’s 8.3–8.5% GDP target is ambitious relative to international forecasts, but domestic fundamentals (FDI, low unemployment, contained inflation) provide support [2, 16].

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  • Robust FDI inflows signal confidence [12].
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  • Low unemployment supports consumption [4].
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  • Inflation control preserves purchasing power [2].
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  • Export competitiveness persists despite headwinds [9].
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  • Parliament support for higher growth target [16].
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Policy Signals

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Authorities aim for ~8% growth in 2025 to pave the way for higher medium-term expansion while retaining fiscal space to cushion shocks if needed [2].

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Policy mix: targeted fiscal support, export diversification, and structural reforms to raise productivity [2, 16].
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Historical Comparison

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GDP growth in 2024 was 7.1%. For 2025, growth may moderate due to external factors, but fundamentals remain resilient. Q1 year-on-year GDP growth rates (2020–2025) were: 3.21%, 4.85%, 5.42%, 3.46%, 5.98%, and 6.93%.

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Sources: [4], [1]

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Data Explorer

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Filter & Search

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Category Period Indicator Value UnitNotesSource
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Economic Outlook and Projections

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Near-term Prospects (2025)

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Vietnam started 2025 strongly. While global uncertainty persists, domestic fundamentals and policy flexibility support continued expansion. The government's 8.3–8.5% growth target is ambitious relative to international forecasts but not unattainable if momentum in services, manufacturing, and FDI is sustained.

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Key Supporting Factors

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  • Robust FDI inflows signal sustained investor confidence.
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  • Low unemployment supports consumption.
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  • Controlled inflation preserves purchasing power.
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  • Export competitiveness remains resilient.
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  • Parliamentary support: raised target parameters for 2025 growth.
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Risk Mitigation Strategies

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  • Diversify export markets and bolster domestic demand.
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  • Enhance economic resilience and maintain macro stability.
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  • Maintain fiscal space to cushion potential external shocks.
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Conclusion

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Vietnam’s 2025 performance showcases resilience and strong fundamentals. External risks persist, but macro stability, robust FDI, and low unemployment underpin a cautiously optimistic outlook. The gap between government targets and international forecasts warrants realism with continued reform momentum [2, 4, 16].

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Conclusion

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Vietnam's 2025 performance highlights resilience and strong growth potential. With inflation and unemployment contained and FDI robust, the economy is positioned for sustained development. The divergence between ambitious domestic targets and conservative international forecasts warrants cautious optimism and disciplined policy execution.

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Sources & Citations

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1. Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate — https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual
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2. International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile — https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
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3. World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates — https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp
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4. Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office — https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/
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5. Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
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6. IMF - Vietnam and the IMF — https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
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7. FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators — https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/vietnam
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8. National Statistics Office of Vietnam - Economic Reports — https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/
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9. VietnamNet - Economic News and Analysis — https://vietnamnet.vn/
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10. IMF - Article IV Mission Reports — https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR
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11. Vietnam Briefing - Economic Analysis — https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/
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12. Vietnam Investment Review - FDI Statistics — https://vir.com.vn/
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13. Trading Economics - Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment — https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-direct-investment
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14. White & Case - Regional Economic Outlook — https://www.whitecase.com/
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15. Vietnam Economic Times — https://vneconomictimes.com/
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16. Asian Development Bank - Vietnam Country Partnership — https://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/main
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17. Ministry of Planning and Investment - Vietnam — https://www.mpi.gov.vn/en/
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Sources and Citations

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  1. [1] Trading Economics – Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual
    2. +
  2. [2] International Monetary Fund – Vietnam Country Profile: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
    3. +
  3. [3] World Economics – Vietnam GDP Estimates: https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp
    4. +
  4. [4] Government of Vietnam – General Statistics Office: https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/
    5. +
  5. [5] Wikipedia – Economy of Vietnam: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
    6. +
  6. [6] IMF – Vietnam and the IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
    7. +
  7. [7] FocusEconomics – Vietnam Economic Indicators: https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/vietnam
    8. +
  8. [8] National Statistics Office of Vietnam – Economic Reports: https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/
    9. +
  9. [9] VietnamNet – Economic News and Analysis: https://vietnamnet.vn/
    10. +
  10. [10] IMF – Article IV Mission Reports: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR
    11. +
  11. [11] Vietnam Briefing – Economic Analysis: https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/
    12. +
  12. [12] Vietnam Investment Review – FDI Statistics: https://vir.com.vn/
    13. +
  13. [13] Trading Economics – Vietnam FDI: https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-direct-investment
    14. +
  14. [14] White & Case – Regional Economic Outlook: https://www.whitecase.com/
    15. +
  15. [15] Vietnam Economic Times: https://vneconomictimes.com/
    16. +
  16. [16] Asian Development Bank – Viet Nam: https://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/main
    17. +
  17. [17] Ministry of Planning and Investment – Viet Nam: https://www.mpi.gov.vn/en/
    18. +
+
+ + Use the copy buttons to add citations to your clipboard. +
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Appendices

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- Appendix A — Definitions -
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  • GDP growth: Year-on-year percentage change at constant prices.
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  • FDI registered vs disbursed: Approved capital vs realized inflows.
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  • Inflation: CPI, YoY % change.
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  • Unemployment rate: National measure, % of labor force.
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Appendices

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+ Appendix A: Underlying dataset (JSON) +
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-           Appendix B — Chart Methods
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  • Bar and line charts use linear scales with zero baselines for bars and min–max padding for lines.
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  • Donut chart proportions reflect category share of total.
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  • Heatmap scales each indicator column to its min–max domain with perceptually uniform color scale.
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+          Appendix B: Notes on visualization methods 
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  • Line and bar charts include interactive tooltips. Values are labeled to two decimals where relevant.
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  • Donut chart visualizes disbursement rate (Disbursed / Registered) for first five months of 2025.
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  • Heatmap is qualitative and designed to surface areas to monitor rather than quantify risk.
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