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Executive Summary

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Vietnam's economy maintained robust momentum in 2025. GDP expanded 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 2025, following 6.9% in Q1, bringing first-half growth to 7.52%—the highest since 2011. Growth was led by industry and services, supported by resilient domestic fundamentals, strong FDI inflows, and low unemployment, despite global trade tensions and tariff headwinds.

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GDP Growth Q2 2025 (y/y)
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7.96%
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vs Q1 6.9%
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Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025

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Strong H1 momentum with 7.52% GDP growth; solid services and manufacturing performance amid global headwinds.[4,1]

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+ Last updated: + All figures include citations + Mobile-optimized +
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+ Q2 2025 GDP (YoY) + 7.96% + Source: GSO/Trading Economics[4,1]
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H1 2025 GDP Growth
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7.52%
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Highest H1 since 2011
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+ H1 2025 GDP (YoY) + 7.52% + Source: GSO[4]
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Inflation (Jun 2025)
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3.57%
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Within target range (3–4.5%)
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+ Inflation (Jun 2025) + 3.57% + Source: GSO/IMF/ADB[4,2,16]
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Unemployment (Q1 2025)
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2.20%
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Historically low
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+ Unemployment (Q1 2025) + 2.20% + Source: GSO[4]
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Sources: [4], [1], [16], [2]
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Methodology

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This presentation synthesizes officially reported indicators and reputable international forecasts. Data points are drawn from Vietnam's General Statistics Office (GSO), international institutions (IMF, ADB), and business intelligence outlets cited below. Narrative sections distill the provided report text and organize findings by theme to enhance readability and analytical clarity.

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- Data pipeline and validation -
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    - - Cross-checked national statistics with international databases where available (e.g., GDP growth, inflation, FDI). - - Presented all quantitative figures exactly as reported in the source text. - - Forecasts are attributed to originating institutions and contextualized against government targets. - - Visualizations use unit-consistent scales and annotated tooltips for transparency. -
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Primary sources include GSO [4], IMF [2][6], and ADB [16]; complementary references listed in the References section.

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Executive Summary

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Vietnam’s economy sustained robust momentum in 2025. GDP rose 7.96% in Q2 (YoY) and 7.52% in H1—the strongest first-half since 2011—propelled by services and manufacturing despite global trade tensions and tariff pressures.[4,1] Inflation remained contained within a 3–4.5% target band, unemployment stayed low at 2.20%, and FDI inflows accelerated, underscoring resilient fundamentals and investor confidence.[4,2,16,12,13]

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+ Growth Momentum + Macro Stability + External Risks
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- Assumptions and scope -
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    - - Risk heatmap reflects qualitative severity inferred from the narrative (not quantitative risk modeling). - - The FDI donut visualizes disbursement as a share of registered capital for the first five months of 2025. - - Historical GDP line chart presents Q1 year-on-year growth 2020–2025 as reported. -
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  • Baseline outlook: solid growth sustained; international forecasts (IMF, ADB) remain below government’s ambitious 8.3–8.5% target.[2,16,4] See Key Indicators.
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  • Policy stance emphasizes stability and resilience while enabling fiscal space for counter-cyclical support if global shocks intensify.[4,17]
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  • Structural reliance on FDI merits attention alongside domestic capacity deepening to mitigate overdependence and inflation risks.[12,13]
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Methodology

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This report synthesizes official statistics and reputable international sources. Data points are directly extracted from the provided research text and mapped to original sources listed in the References.

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  • Primary data sources: Vietnam General Statistics Office (GSO), IMF, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Trading Economics, and Vietnam Investment Review.[4,2,16,1,12,13]
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  • Processing: Key indicators structured into interactive charts and tables; section cross-references added; all statements include citations where applicable.
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  • Visualization: All charts rendered client-side using Canvas/SVG; no external libraries used.
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Note: No additional data has been inferred beyond what is provided; qualitative visuals (e.g., distribution counts) avoid implying undisclosed magnitudes.
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Findings

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GDP Growth — Q1 & Q2 2025

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YoY growth rates; H1 average shown as reference line.[4,1]
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+ Q1–Q2 2025 + H1 2025 Avg (7.52%) +
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Source: GSO; Trading Economics.[4,1]
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Key Findings

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  • Vietnam recorded 7.52% GDP growth in H1 2025, led by services and manufacturing, despite external headwinds.
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  • Inflation remained contained (3.57% in June 2025), preserving purchasing power and policy space.
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  • FDI posted strong momentum: US$21.51bn in H1 (+32.6% y/y); US$18.4bn registered and US$8.9bn disbursed in the first five months.
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  • Labor markets remain stable with unemployment at 2.20% in Q1 2025.
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  • International forecasts (IMF, ADB) are more conservative than the government's 8.3–8.5% target, implying an ambitious policy agenda.
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Citations: [4], [2], [16], [12]
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Interactive Data Dashboard

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Q1 GDP Growth, 2020–2025 (y/y)
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2025 GDP Growth Forecasts

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Institutional forecasts vs. government target band.[2,16,4,7]
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- GDP growth + Forecast + Gov Target Min + Gov Target Max
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Sources: [4], [1]
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Sources: IMF, ADB, FocusEconomics (aggregates); Government target (GSO/MPI).[2,16,7,4,17]
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2025 GDP Growth Forecasts
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Inflation — May & Jun 2025

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Monthly inflation with forecast reference lines.[4,2,16]
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- Forecast (%) - Gov. target band: 8.3–8.5% + Actual + IMF 2025 Forecast (2.9%) + ADB 2025 Forecast (4.0%)
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Sources: [16] ADB, [2][6] IMF, report text (World Bank), [17]
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Sources: GSO, IMF, ADB.[4,2,16]
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FDI Disbursement Rate (First 5 months, 2025)
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

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Registered/disbursed (first 5 months) and total FDI (H1).[12,13]
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- Disbursed / Registered + Registered (5M) + Disbursed (5M) + Total (H1)
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Sources: [12], [17]
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Sources: Vietnam Investment Review; Trading Economics (FDI series).[12,13]
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Risk Factors Heatmap (qualitative)
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- Narrative-based severity +
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Historical Q1 GDP Growth (2020–2025)

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YoY rates by year depicted as intensity heatmap.[1,4]
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Risk
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Severity
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Trade
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Tariffs
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Geo-Political
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FDI Dependence
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Macro Stability
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Assessment
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High
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High
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Moderate
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Elevated
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Moderate
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+ Lower + Higher
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Sources: GSO; Trading Economics.[4,1]
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Based on report narrative. See “Challenges & Risk Factors.”
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Forecast Distribution (By Band, Count of Institutions)

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Counts of forecasts ≤6%, 6–7%, ≥8% (Gov target band counted as ≥8%).[2,16,4,7,17]
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+ ≤6% + 6–7% + ≥8% +
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Based on counts (IMF, World Bank; ADB; Government target). Sources: IMF, ADB, FocusEconomics, GSO/MPI.[2,16,7,4,17]
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Key Economic Indicators 2025

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GDP Growth Performance

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  • Q1 2025: 6.9% (y/y)
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  • Q2 2025: 7.96% (y/y)
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  • H1 2025: 7.52%
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Sources: [4], [1]

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2025 GDP Forecasts

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  • World Bank: 5.8%
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  • ADB: 6.6%
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  • IMF: 5.2%
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  • Government Target: 8.3–8.5%
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Sources: [16], [2][6], [17]

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+ Primary Growth Drivers +
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  • Services sector as major contributor to GDP growth.[4]
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  • Manufacturing maintains recovery and development trajectory.[4]
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  • Export industries continue as economic backbone despite trade challenges.[4,9,15]
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  • Banking sector earnings projected +17% on ~15% system credit growth in 2025.[9,15]
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+ Retail Performance +

Q1 2025 retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (~US$66.83bn), up 9.9% YoY, signaling resilient domestic demand.[4]

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Inflation & Labor

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  • Inflation: May 3.24%; June 3.57% (highest YTD)
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  • IMF 2025 CPI forecast: 2.9%
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  • ADB 2025 CPI forecast: 4.0%
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  • Unemployment (Q1 2025): 2.20%
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Sources: [4], [2], [16]

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FDI & Retail

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  • FDI (first 5 months 2025): Registered US$18.4bn; Disbursed US$8.9bn
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  • FDI (H1 2025): US$21.51bn (+32.6% y/y)
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  • Retail sales (Q1 2025): VND 1.708 quadrillion (US$66.83bn), +9.9% y/y
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Sources: [12], [4], [13], [17]

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Challenges and Risk Factors

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  • Global trade tensions and US tariffs weighing on export-oriented firms.[9,14,15]
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  • Geopolitical instability raising uncertainty and investment risk premia.[14,2]
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  • FDI overdependence and inflation vigilance flagged by experts.[12,13,15]
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  • Growth must avoid compromising macro stability, debt dynamics, or inflation.[2,4,16]
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Labor Market — Unemployment Gauge

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Q1 2025 unemployment at 2.20% (historically low).[4]
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Economic Outlook and Projections

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+ Near-term Prospects (2025) +

Strong start in Q1 (6.9% YoY) with ongoing traction. Outlook remains constructive though headwinds persist; the government’s 8.3–8.5% target is ambitious relative to international forecasts.[4,2,16]

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+ Supporting Factors +
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  • Robust FDI inflows and confidence.[12,13]
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  • Low unemployment supporting consumption.[4]
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  • Controlled inflation preserving purchasing power.[2,16,4]
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  • Export competitiveness despite trade frictions.[9,15]
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  • Parliamentary support for higher growth target.[17]
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+ Risk Mitigation +
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  • Diversify export markets; strengthen domestic demand.[4,17]
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  • Enhance resilience and safeguard macro stability.[2,4,16]
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  • Maintain fiscal space for counter-shock support.[2,4,16,17]
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Historical context: 2024 GDP growth at 7.1%; long-term outlook resilient despite short-term headwinds.[1,4]
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- All - Growth - Inflation - Labor - FDI - Retail - Forecast -
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Category Indicator Period Value NotesSources
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- Last updated: - Tip: Click column headers to sort; use chips to filter. -
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Data Tables & Filters

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Sectoral Analysis

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Primary Growth Drivers

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  1. Services sector: major contributor to GDP growth
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  2. Manufacturing: sustained recovery and development
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  3. Export industries: remain the economic backbone
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  4. Banking: projected +17% earnings in 2025 on +15% credit growth
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Retail Performance

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Q1 2025 retail sales reached VND 1.708 quadrillion (US$66.83bn), up 9.9% y/y. Low unemployment and controlled inflation support domestic demand.

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Sources: [4]

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IndicatorPeriodValueTypeSource
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See also: Dashboard • Outlook
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Tip: Click table headers to sort. Use filters to show/hide categories.
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Conclusion

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Vietnam’s 2025 performance highlights resilience and growth potential. With inflation contained, unemployment low, and FDI strong, the economy is positioned for continued expansion. The divergence between government targets and international forecasts argues for cautious optimism, balancing ambition with macroprudential discipline.[2,4,12,13,16]

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Sources and Citations

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  1. Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate — https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual
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  2. International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile — https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
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  3. World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates — https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp
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  4. Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office — https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/
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  5. Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
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  6. IMF - Vietnam and the IMF — https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
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  7. FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators — https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/vietnam
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  8. National Statistics Office of Vietnam - Economic Reports — https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/
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  9. VietnamNet - Economic News and Analysis — https://vietnamnet.vn/
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  10. IMF - Article IV Mission Reports — https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR
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  11. Vietnam Briefing - Economic Analysis — https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/
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  12. Vietnam Investment Review - FDI Statistics — https://vir.com.vn/
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  13. Trading Economics - Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment — https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-direct-investment
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  14. White & Case - Regional Economic Outlook — https://www.whitecase.com/
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  15. Vietnam Economic Times — https://vneconomictimes.com/
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  16. Asian Development Bank - Vietnam Country Partnership — https://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/main
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  17. Ministry of Planning and Investment - Vietnam — https://www.mpi.gov.vn/en/
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Appendices

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+ Appendix A — Cross-References Navigator +
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See: Executive Summary → Findings (Key Indicators) for the quantitative backbone; Risks section complements Outlook with policy actions. References anchor all figures to original sources.

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Challenges and Risk Factors

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  • Global trade tensions constrain export activity.
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  • US tariff policies pressure export-oriented businesses.
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  • Geopolitical instability adds to uncertainty.
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  • Overdependence on FDI raises structural concerns.
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  • Growth must be balanced against macroeconomic stability, debt, and inflation risks.
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    + Appendix B — Download Center Export +
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Conclusion

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Vietnam's 2025 performance highlights resilience and strong growth potential. With inflation and unemployment contained and FDI robust, the economy is positioned for sustained development. The divergence between ambitious domestic targets and conservative international forecasts warrants cautious optimism and disciplined policy execution.

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Sources and Citations

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  1. [1] Trading Economics – Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual
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  2. [2] International Monetary Fund – Vietnam Country Profile: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
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  3. [3] World Economics – Vietnam GDP Estimates: https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp
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  4. [4] Government of Vietnam – General Statistics Office: https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/
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  5. [5] Wikipedia – Economy of Vietnam: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
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  6. [6] IMF – Vietnam and the IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
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  7. [7] FocusEconomics – Vietnam Economic Indicators: https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/vietnam
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  8. [8] National Statistics Office of Vietnam – Economic Reports: https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/
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  9. [9] VietnamNet – Economic News and Analysis: https://vietnamnet.vn/
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  10. [10] IMF – Article IV Mission Reports: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR
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  11. [11] Vietnam Briefing – Economic Analysis: https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/
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  12. [12] Vietnam Investment Review – FDI Statistics: https://vir.com.vn/
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  13. [13] Trading Economics – Vietnam FDI: https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-direct-investment
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  14. [14] White & Case – Regional Economic Outlook: https://www.whitecase.com/
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  15. [15] Vietnam Economic Times: https://vneconomictimes.com/
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  16. [16] Asian Development Bank – Viet Nam: https://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/main
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  17. [17] Ministry of Planning and Investment – Viet Nam: https://www.mpi.gov.vn/en/
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Appendices

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- Appendix A: Underlying dataset (JSON) -
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-          Appendix B: Notes on visualization methods 
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  • Line and bar charts include interactive tooltips. Values are labeled to two decimals where relevant.
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  • Donut chart visualizes disbursement rate (Disbursed / Registered) for first five months of 2025.
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  • Heatmap is qualitative and designed to surface areas to monitor rather than quantify risk.
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