s Office for National Statistics said 14,000 fewer people were at work, bringing down the total number of employed people to about 32 million as of the end of September. The latest unemployment rate at 4.3% was unchanged from the previous quarter, but lower than the 4.8% of a year ago. U.K. retail sales fell 0.3% in October, year-on-year, marking the first such drop since 2013, although they grew 0.3% from September, according to government data.
“The terms of the negotiations are bound to be more favorable to the party whose economy seems less vulnerable to Brexit.”–Joao Gomes
The E.U.’s relatively stronger economy could give it an upper hand over the U.K. “It seems clear to me that in the end, the terms of the negotiations are bound to be more favorable to the party whose economy seems less vulnerable to Brexit,” said Gomes. He noted that the U.K. is losing out in other areas as its economic fortunes lag those of the E.U. “It has strengthened the Union’s resolve to stick with its demands and made it more difficult for the U.K. negotiators to risk a hard Brexit.”
O’Leary expected major companies, including those in the financial services sector, to decide on relocating from the U.K. after Christmas. Businesses were hoping to have had some clarity by now about the likely final shape of the Brexit agreement, and cannot afford to put off their decisions, he said. “The loss of foreign direct investment on top of a falling pound and on top of inflation might concentrate the mind.” In the past year and a half, the pound has lost more than 22% against the euro.
Politically Shaky
To be sure, nobody expected the going to be smooth, given the thorny issues involved. “Brexit negotiations are difficult because there is no precedent and because neither party is really convinced that Brexit should happen,” said Guillen. Added Egan: “We always expected this process to be difficult. This is a negotiation.” All the same, Europe is running out of patience, she suggested. “Europe is also moving on; they’ve got other issues that they want to deal with beyond Brexit.”
It does not help that May’s government is on “very weak” ground, as Guillen noted. “The Conservative Party is divided, and a resurgent Labour Party under [Jeremy] Corbyn is using the Brexit crisis as a way to boost its electoral chances. Moreover, May has agreed to have a vote in Parliament about any deal.” In the snap elections May had called in June, the Conservative Party fell short of a majority, while the Labour Party significantly improved its tally.
The May government has been shaky also because it recently lost two ministers and may lose more because of unrelated scandals. Damian Green, the first secretary of state, faces a probe after police allegedly found pornography on his work computer during a raid in 2008. Green has denied the allegations and termed them “unscrupulous character assassination,” but it has shaken the government. “Theresa May does not look like she’s in control of the process and so the crisis of governance is part of the problem,” said Egan. Added O’Leary: “She’s a dead woman walking. The only question is when she falls. She’s very lucky. Her conspirators are totally incompetent.”
Questions over Credibility
O’Leary felt the Conservative Party is overconfident as well. “We’re dealing with a world in which Conservative fantasies about their bargaining power have yet to be fully confronted with reality,” he said. He expected a turning point at the next round of talks with the E.U. in December. He said the E.U. could insist on a settlement hammered out by the fall of next year, in good time before the European parliamentary elections in May 2019. “Time is very much running out for the Conservatives.”
Alongside battling those domestic troubles, May’s government does not seem to have a winning strategy for the Brexit negotiations. “Are the negotiations going to lead to the U.K. fully leaving the Customs Union and the single market, and refusing to accept jurisdiction [of] the Court of Justice of the European Union?” O’Leary asked. “If that’s the case, then there isn’t going to be any successful settlement of any kind.”
O’Leary said the U.K. has difficulty striking a credible treaty with the E.U.-27 (the remaining members in the E.U.) because its own credentials are questionable. “The U.K. … has the ability to repudiate treaties,” he said. “If a treaty is made with the E.U.-27, what is the credible commitment that the U.K. can make that it will abide by that treaty?” In the light of that, he said it is “absolutely vital” that the U.K. agrees to adjudication by the Court of Justice of the European Union, because that ensures the U.K. would suffer “a significant penalty, were it to break its treaty obligations.”
“Any outcome is possible: from a reasonable deal for Brexit all the way to the U.K. cancelling Brexit and remaining in the E.U.”–Mauro Guillen
Likely Outcomes
O’Leary saw two possible outcomes. “One is the U.K. simply leaves the E.U. on the appointed hour without any agreement at all, and without paying its bills,” he said. That outcome could create “serious difficulties for the U.K. and Ireland, but less so for the E.U.-27 who could absorb the shock quite easily,” he added.
The second likelihood, O’Leary said, is of a “last minute transitional deal which keeps the U.K. inside the single market and the Customs Union, while they agree to continue negotiating.” That outcome could prove to be “a sticky position” for the Conservative government to be in, “because they wouldn’t really be out — they’d be pretending to be out,” he added. In that scenario, the U.K. would have no say over the regulatory structure in the period ahead and it will not be able to negotiate trade deals with other countries, he pointed out.
“The fantasy of the U.K. is also that they going to get what we call a bespoke deal — like pick-and-mix sweets,” said Egan. However, the European side wants it to be a clear-cut deal — “It’s either you’re in it or you’re out,” she noted. Europe’s concerns are also that Britain’s exit might trigger “a real regulatory race to the bottom,” where the U.K. might strike more favorable trade deals with countries outside the E.U.
With so much uncertainty, “it is nearly impossible to predict what might happen,” said Guillen. “Any outcome is possible: from a reasonable deal for Brexit all the way to the U.K. cancelling Brexit and remaining in the E.U.”Stewart Sokol & Gray assisted a client, a regional telecommunications company, in successfully enforcing the terms of non-disclosure, non-compete agreements against two of the client's former employees. After initiating litigation, SSG helped the client negotiate a stipulated judgment against the former employees which included an injunction against further violation of the agreements and payment of money damages.
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Business & Commercial LitigationThe Under-19 Lady Chevrons are early next year set to participate in the International Cricket Council (ICC) Women’s T20 World Cup in South Africa with the team having already established camp in Harare.
Under the guidance of head coach Trevor Phiri and bowling mentor Trevor Garwe, the Zimbabwean squad were joined by Kelis Ndhlovu, an all-rounder that got back into the country with the senior Lady Chevrons from a tour of duty in United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Ndhlovu (16) had a five-star performance in UAE as she won a Player of the Match accolade in a solid campaign for Gary Bent’s side.
The 2023 ICC U-19 Women’s T20 World Cup will be the first ever edition of its kind and it will have 16 teams with 11 full member nations which are, Australia, Bangladesh, England, India, Ireland, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka, West Indies and Zimbabwe.
This saw these teams qualifying for the tournament automatically.
Zimbabwe is placed in Group B with England, Pakistan and Rwanda.
The tournament will run from 14 to 29 January in Benoni and Potchefstroom.A Child of Mine – Help for Bereaved Parents
This is a personal website started by a family following the death of a child from cancer. The website includes personal stories, poems, support, practical information and resources.
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A phone helpline for anyone who has been affected by the death of a child. The helpline is staffed by volunteers, who are all bereaved parents themselves. or call 0800 28 29 86
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