 every piece of data that goes into the models is imperfect. But just what is an epidemic model, anyway, and how do they work? How do we know which ones to trust? At a time when lives depend on the accuracy of these models, it’s more important than ever to understand their strengths and limitations.
I am a university professor, a scientist, and an infectious disease modeler. I’ve invented some COVID-19 models. My colleagues and I have spent years teaching doctoral students to derive new and better models. When I do, I emphasize that models are a tool for making our ideas clear.
For instance, take our struggle to understand how the novel coronavirus is transmitted. The basic hope of our mitigation efforts is that testing and isolation of contagious cases can limit the spread of COVID-19. We also need to worry about the contagiousness of an infection, how many superspreaders there are, and how long a person is infectious before they begin to show symptoms. But we’re not quite sure about how all those variables interact. This is where models come in.
Infectious disease modelers represent the process of transmission as a dynamical process, which is just a fancy way of saying that the variables change in response to each other. Exactly how modelers represent this process differs according to the tastes and talents of whoever’s designing the model. Some modelers write down equations and think about the interaction between an infectious person and a susceptible person like two reagents in a chemical reaction. Other modelers think that approach simplifies things too much. It’s better, they say, to write a computer program that represents all the people in a population, like characters in a computer game, and then let the game play out according to some algorithm to see what happens. In either case, the scientist has posed what we call a mechanistic model that is governed by certain rules.
Where do we get these values from? There is no periodic table where we can look up the isolation and transmission rates of all infectious diseases. In fact, those isolation and transmission rates are almost certainly highly variable from one community to another because things differ so much between places. Think, for example, of health care infrastructure, the availability of tests, and the average number of individuals people come into contact with daily.
There is no single way that infectious disease modelers arrive at reliable (and sometimes unreliable) numbers for these values. Some of these things we can measure. For instance, we can measure the speed at which people isolate by asking people who are hospitalized when they first began to feel symptoms and when they were first isolated (hospitalized or quarantined). If the delay is five days on average, in some population or other, then the isolation rate for that population is ⅕.
Another way we can arrive at a number for an unknown quantity is by “fitting” our model. Let’s imagine a super-simple model as an example, one with only two variables: the transmission rate and the recovery rate. When fitting a model we take some real-world data — say, the number of newly discovered cases in a population — and we tune those two unknown variables from one extreme to the other to find the intermediate value at which the model most looks like the actual, real-life data. In the case of the novel coronavirus, the data could be the number of cases, hospitalizations or deaths.
Of course, to say something scientifically, we have to be precise about what we mean by “most looks like the actual, real-life data.” We do this with yet another model, typically a statistical model, that calculates the probability of observing the data we actually have, given different assumptions. We say that those models for which our data are relatively probable have high likelihood, and there’s a whole statistical framework for comparing the likelihoods of different models.
So, even though models are for making ideas clear, the path to making one isn’t always so clear. Yet for all their imprecisions, they’re still better than nothing. Either we can use models, trying to stay cautious about how much they’re really telling us, or we can rely on conjecture, gut reactions and expert opinion alone. Only the first path is a transparent one with a built-in mechanism for self-correction.
Proven luxurious safari-style camping experiences (glamping) are increasingly popular around the world, and now they are on offer in the Cook Islands on the main island of Rarotonga.
Passionately developed by husband and wife team, Matt and Luana Scowcroft, Ikurangi Eco Retreat has been carefully created to offer visitors to the Cook Islands the option of a holiday that doesn’t compromise the environment.
Opened earlier this year, Ikurangi is purposely-built eco accommodation that uses the eco technology of shallow foundations for the decking, composting toilets, sustainably sourced materials, natural and biodegradable toiletries and cleaning products, all on an eco-friendly accommodation site.
Ikurangi’s accommodation options include two ‘Are’ bungalows and four luxury safari tents, each with a sustainable waste-management system.
“Being a boutique property with only six rooms, we have the freedom to ensure each guest has a distinctive and special experience,” said Luana.
Among the many thought-out features of Ikurangi Eco Retreat are the substantial daily tropical breakfasts delivered to guest rooms. And, locally-roasted, fair trade plunger coffee is topped up daily.
Located minutes from the beach and to the main township of Avarua, local in-depth knowledge is always on hand with Luana and Matt.
“As a further commitment to sustainability, our guests have free use of bicycles to tour the island or to head to the beach”.
Ikurangi means ‘the tail of the sky’ named after the mountain that watches over the village of Matavera and the accommodation site.
“Ikurangi Eco Retreat provides an alternative accommodation experience on Rarotonga amid its natural inland beauty, yet only minutes to the beach,” said Luana.
Members of EVE University benefit from The +3 Implants Program, providing young members the ability to purchase basic +3 implants at a reduced price. The benefit over lower quality implants or no implants at all is quite obvious: faster skill training.
Make sure to specify the names of the implants you want.
Do not abuse the program by asking for multiple sets or copies at once or in short succession. Allow others to participate, too. For now you can request one full set (one implant of each type) once per month.
If you want to donate ISK or implants directly to the program, send the ISK (or contract the implants) to the Program Manager and drop a mail that you did so.This is a weird suggestion. I mean suggesting that what's supposed to be one of the cheapest and most accessible ships be locked behind a rank is one thing. But thinking that doing so will remedy players thinking their immediate next ship will logically be god-like is really something else. This is an insane reasoning for an insane resolve to a complete non-issue. 

If anything, adding *more* requirements to a single one of the most basic ships is only going to encourage people to think it's better than what the price tag suggests. Not the opposite. You don't hint at people that something isn't good by making it more expensive to attain, that's ridiculous. No seriously. That's already the logic the game operates on, i.e the imperial clipper way outclasses its price range but everyone in the community recognises it's justified under the rank context.

Finally, small ships are already in a tough spot. They have little reason to be used other than being in the early game and fun. And this issue has further been exercebated by the inflated income rates of players compared to the original release period. The last thing we need is to make any small ship even harder to attain. A player could reasonably attain a medium ship before they even get the rank for your suggestion. We need more reasons for more people to use eagles, not less.{"pos":"proper","translits":{"ḥe·reš":{"1ch.9.15|1":["and Bakbakkar､","Heresh､","and Galal､"]}},"meanings":{"heresh":1},"meaningsCount":1,"occurences":1}The action buttons section on the tabs has been moved to make them always available on each screen.
Always available for all users, it allows you to move the status of the sheet or assign a result to it.
This button allows you to resend a notification that for some reason has not been delivered.
Active only in projects that provide for it, it allows you to revoke sheets manually.
If a PDF is present, it allows the direct download of the file (e.g. confirmation of donation).
Only available for admin. Allows you to delete a card inserted in Metaface.

Have you ever had hair scalp pain, or do you think it is just your imagination playing tricks on you? Well, painful hair is a real thing with many common causes. And the good news is that it is curable.
Hair scalp pain can be caused by several factors which include easy-to-treat dandruff to infestation. According to a study, common symptoms of hair scalp pain includes burning, prickling, itching and tingling sensations. Let’s dive into some of the main reasons for scalp pain.
Lice And Hair Scalp Pain
Head lice, as you know, is a blood-sucking insect that loves to reside in your hair. It is contagious as it crawls from one person’s head to another if you share comb or