 sounds like some big news. congratulations – i’m so excited for you!
Wow – good job! I will have to try that technique – my breaks tend to get way too long.
it has seriously helped SO much. i’m on a break right now! 🙂
I need to try this. right about NOW!
This scared the crap out of me “perfectionists are notorious for having trouble starting things. she pointed out that perfectionists are afraid of not doing things the right way, so they avoid doing them to avoid being imperfect.”
That is my EXACT problem! To get kind of personal.. the perfectionism is so freaking bad that I wont finish my resume, wont work on my cover letters and wont apply for the internship that will give me the internship that I HAVE TO HAVE to succeed in my career. I don’t know how to break the cycle of fear and avoiding! at all! =(
i’m struggling with the exact same thing, jenn! even after my great progress yesterday, it’s 2pm and i’m still having a hard time getting myself to start today’s revisions. i wish i had some great secret to break that cycle. i know that after i start, it’s not nearly as bad as i thought! it just occurred to me that there is no way that starting this project could make it worse.
also, my friend amy just wrote a post this morning about how she’s approaching writing her thesis. i think it’s a great mentality for those of us who are afraid of imperfection. here’s the link: i hope it helps!
I really identify with the perfectionism thing. I have a lot of trouble starting projects because I am so afraid that I won’t do them perfectly.
I tried a modified version of the pomodoro technique today (with some longer blocks and longer breaks) and it worked pretty well! Thanks for introducing me to it!
Also, thanks for linking to my post! I am glad it was helpful to someone besides me. 🙂
i’m so glad it worked for you! i think once i get a little bit more used to pomodoro i’ll make my working times a little bit longer. sometimes 25 minutes doesn’t seem like a lot of time to accomplish much. but i guess it is since i got so much done! 🙂
This was really interesting. I had no idea that perfectionists avoid starting things and then I get anxiety about getting them done. Great information.
thanks, meg! and thanks for checking out my blog. 🙂
talk about turbo productive. i like that break breakdown. and a zero on google reader?! you must not read enough blogs 😉 haha, i kid.
xo!
haha, seriously, i don’t think it can possibly be that i don’t read enough blogs! i think i follow at least 50. but if you have any good suggestions, let me know! i’m always looking for more good ones. i don’t know how it got down to zero, though. it was actually kind of sad – i like to always know i have a blog post to read if i need a little help procrastinating!
I am always looking for tips when it comes to making my life more organized and productive. I have an excellent guest post lined up on Friday, if you are interested!
I really loved this technique you gave here!
i’m always looking for tips too! i will definitely check out the post on friday – thanks for the heads up!Call Now for Solution – +91-8441981572 Each third person in the marriage relationship of the world is suffering from the love marriage problem. The most of the love marriage got broke due to the financial status, parents, and society. Maulana Ji is the specialist in interest love marriage, love issues etc. In present, if –The bull markets – in housing prices, equities, bonds, all of it – are going to end, and the aftermath will be financially painful for Canadian investors. The question is: when?
Thanks in part to unprecedented global monetary stimulus by central banks, investors have enjoyed the longest equity bull market in history. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is higher by 185 per cent from March 9, 2009 and the S&P 500 has appreciated 424 per cent in U.S. dollar terms. Ultra-low Canadian interest rates have helped push national housing prices higher by 84 per cent during the same time frame.
Brokers I worked with in the past were fond of reminding clients that previous strong growth can’t be extrapolated into the future forever.
It’s also true, however, that market tops are much more difficult to pinpoint than market bottoms.
What follows is a guide comprising 10 things to help you assess how close we may be to the inevitable end to the major bull markets we find ourselves in today.
1. The interaction between retail spending and housing prices, shown in the first chart, is what I think is the most important economic indicator for Canadians. A sharp decline in spending growth would form a warning that high household debt levels have started biting Canadians’ financial health, and threaten the outlook for the domestic economy.
Because mortgage payments are not optional, and a percentage of consumer spending is, an increase in the number of Canadians struggling with high debt levels will first become evident in weaker-than-expected consumption data.
The retail spending data gained even more significance after Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius noted that Canada, along with Britain, has fallen into a spending deficit whereby total income has fallen below spending levels. For Mr. Hatzius, this ratio is a better indicator of economic crisis than the trade deficit.
The data show retail spending levels that are mediocre relative to recent history, but not at negative levels that might warn of a housing correction. The expansion in retail estate prices has clearly slowed significantly.
Industrial metals vs.
2. The recent weakness in industrial metals prices and mining stocks is entirely justified by slowing growth in global manufacturing activity. The evidence is to be found in Chart 2, illustrating the close relationship between the year-over-year change in the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals index and the annual change in the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI (a survey of major manufacturing executives across the world).
The rate of change in global manufacturing activity, while still healthy, has been deteriorating since March of 2017. At that point, the JPMorgan index of worldwide manufacturing levels was higher by 6 per cent relative to 12 months earlier, but the most recent results for July saw no annual change in growth.
The decline in the pace of manufacturing growth has reduced demand for base metals. This trend goes a long way in explaining why the copper price has fallen 17 per cent since June 7, 2018.
of Canada bond yield minus two-year U.S.
3. For the most part, the value of the Canadian dollar will be determined by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Relative bond yields – specifically the Government of Canada two-year bond yield minus the two-year U.S. Treasury bond yield – have been driving the loonie price for the past number of years, more so than the oil price.
The Fed and the Bank of Canada are in the midst of a tightening cycle – steadily raising interest rates – and this is pushing two-year bond yields higher on both sides of the border. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz has sounded a more cautious tone on rate hikes in recent weeks, so if the Fed continues with a faster pace of rate increases, this is likely to push the loonie lower.
4. Global equity markets, including the S&P/TSX Composite, have benefited tremendously from central bank policies of low rates and monetary stimulus. The world’s major central banks are now moving in the opposite direction – tightening monetary conditions and raising rates – and there’s a distinct risk that some of the market gains of the post-crisis rally will be retraced.
Citigroup Inc. credit strategist Matt King was among the first analysts to recognize the correlation between central bank stimulus and global equity prices. In the fourth chart, Mr. King shows that the performance of the MSCI World Index has closely tracked the level of open market purchases by central banks. If this pattern holds, it doesn’t bode well for equity returns in the coming years.
5. High-yield bond spreads – the difference between junk bond yields and U.S. Treasury bond yields – will be the key signal that the market rally is over and a bear market is set to begin.
In a research report published in May, highly respected Credit Suisse Group market strategist Andrew Garthwaite pointed out that credit spreads widened ahead of a peak in equities on eight out of past nine occasions, with an average lead of about seven months.
Chart 5 shows the long-term history of the high-yield bond spread and the S&P 500. Currently, there is little to worry about because spreads are stable. The circled areas in the chart, however, show that rising junk-bond spreads signalled U.S. equity market peaks before the tech bubble collapsed in 2000, and also before the financial crisis.
6. We might, and I emphasize might, get a “blow-off top” – a big aggressive rally to end the cycle, such as what we saw in 1998-99 – before this bull market is done. Central banks are tightening monetary conditions, but a decade of easy money has left a lot of investment assets chasing returns. In the late 1990s, investor assets became concentrated in a few technology and telecom stocks, which drove the Nasdaq higher by 86 per cent in 1999 alone before the painful end of the dot-com rally in early 2000.
The