 by ITV Studios America and Optomen in association with A. Smith & Co. Ramsey, Arthur Smith, Kent Weed and Patricia Llewellyn executive produce.Hughes and Salvidge were honoured to be invited by our client Kier to take part in their ‘2020’ Charity Challenge recently.
The ‘2020’ Challenge was launched by Kier in April to use Green, non-motorised transport to relay a baton from their most Northerly site on the Orkney Islands to their most Southerly site in Truro, Cornwall within 2020 hours – at the same time as raising £200,000 for charity with various challenges thrown in.
We are currently working with Kier on a demolition project at Butlins in Bognor Regis and jumped at the chance to join them in a challenge to beat the Butlins staff’s Ben Nevis Climbing Challenge record of covering 1345 metres with repeated ascents of their 11-metre on-campus climbing wall within a certain timeframe.
Hughes and Salvidge Project Managers Joe Parnell and Ewan James were joined by Site Manager Gerry Buckland and Business Development Executive Will Spong in helping the Kier staff complete the challenge.
To date, Kier have already exceeded their £200,000 target for their registered charity The Kier Foundation, National charity partner The Alzheimers Society and other local charities.
Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan? 16 comments
The day started out like pretty much every day in the past few weeks. The broader market acts weak, oil remains at its high, and commodities (especially coal and natural gas stocks) make new highs almost daily.
But then we come across the woodshed.
Oh yeah... that looks safe, doesn't it?
Not bloody likely.
The reality is that the commodities trade got WAY over crowded. I mentioned in my Weekly Game Plan, that it was going to be another week of defence. And more importantly, that the risks were mounting in the most loved names.
Some quotes from the weekend game plan:
- "I have to say, that as much as I liked the metallurgical coal thesis 2 months ago, I must be less bullish today."
- "I wouldn't be surprised that many major funds now have significant positions in these names, which are hedging out losses in other areas. This is another reason why panic and fear have not broken out. There's still a place to hide, but that place is getting crowded."
- "This is more of a game of hide and seek with a bear. But everyone is hiding behind the same curtain."
But let's get to the point. What's the gameplan from here on out? First, we need to understand the anatomy of this correction. I wrote a piece earlier about that here. Back on the edge of the Abyss
Another important consideration, is that we need to understand how the market views this correction. Yes, this is the "global growth is dead" battle cry, and since virtually everything is now somehow connected to this thesis, this has the potential to be one ugly correction. And one that is not a "V" bottom.
If we operate under this assumption, we need to realize that the stock market is an expectations game.
What happens tomorrow, next week, or even next month, is not going to depend on whether we get a global recession or not. What does matter is expectations, and that is what we need to be on the look out for. A bottom will occur in commodities when the market has fully discounted a global recession, regardless if it actually happens. So forget about if it actually happens or not. Even if it does, but expectations suggest we don't, we will get a rally.
So what's the game plan?
Again, it's Defence. But this time, we are going to defend the best of breed in the themes and companies we have the most conviction in. Most of the time, I think having the conviction is the most valuable part of fundamental analysis. So circle the wagons around the companies you have the most conviction in.
By far, my favorite theme still surrounds agriculture. A growing middle class in Asia, and to keep civil rioting at a minimum, food ample food will be required. My favorite names are the ones I've been behind for a long time. Agrium (AGU), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT).
Next is deep water drilling. This "global recession" is being partly sparked by oil fears. That's why oil (the commodity) still has not faltered. Stick with Transocean (RIG) and Atwood Oceanic (ATW). This is levered more to the shortage of rigs and not the price of oil.
Metallurgical coal/iron/steel. This one is a bit tricky. The start of the decline came from lower coal prices in Europe. I am still a bull on this, as the world is still moving to a middle class society with concrete, steel and glass buildings. Not to mention cars and all things related to minerals. But this could be in for a deeper correction that we expect. For this area, I like iron and metalurgical coal miner, Cleveland Cliffs (CLF). Mechel (MTL) still remains my favorite Russian integrated steel producer, and Arch Coal (ACI), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Massey Energy (MEE) for more metallurgical coal.
Now, I might have mentioned a lot of coal stocks, but they are not my favorite sectors at this point. I just happen to like a basket of stocks in this sector. What's important, is to understand that these stocks aren't going straight down.
Nothing goes straight up, or down, so use wide scales. I prefer the 50 (we are there today in a lot of names), 150 and 250 day exponential moving averages as starting points. Or perhaps the fibonacci retracement levels. But a key point is to make sure you have cash at all times.
Start small, and build a position. Expect significantly lower prices, and sell some into bounces along the way. Understand that you are going to take some pain along the way. Just accept it.
Disclaimer: Long MOS, POT, RIG, CLF, MTL, ACI, MEE, and hedged with a lot of SMN.
This article has 16 comments:
the main idea is that individual investors dont have to act like institutional investors and this market and may be better holding cash than trying to beat the market....
Good grief!!! Going into a long weekend with a raft of shitty news and people honestly believe the "rally" wasn't more manipulation of the market for political purposes?? HELLOOOOOOO.
No wonder the US is doomed.
regards.
Long commodities. Short equities. Long Yen.
infrastructure alone will support the coal industry, iron ore industry, etc. the amelioration of weather related damage in australia and the end of ore negotiations between bhp billiton and chinese steel mills will not lessen but instead will bake in and stabilize the doubled [+/-] prices. the long term power disaster in south africa is awful yet does not deter investment by arcelor mittal et al.
for the short run i suppose dips spurts and corrections are important plays in commodities. but in the long, run even the so-called slow downs and price barriers and macro- economic concerns will bow to the strength of what is essentially an industrial revolution; an economic movement of historic [literally] proportions.
much chatter about lower exports from china. more important is the lower exports of these commodities from the likes of indonesia, vietnam and india. given the choice between selling them at record profits or retaining them [gov't policy, tariffs] to use for their own infrastructures, it seems for now that local investment rules.
personally i like dry bulk shipping, brazilian iron/steel industries and met coal miners. i am fairly giddy at the prospect of taking substantial gains and buying back in way lower.
f.y.i: in my readings [foreign press, trade papers, gov't positions and studies] i find that fear of an american slow down etc. is often lip service and that more than one of these source expresses no fear whatsoever. i think there is schadenfreude at work to wit, many nations are happy to delink from the u.s. and it's tsuris as much as is possible.757. Classic Watch Strap Tool
At the first blush, this knife looks like a regular Classic, but instead of nail-file it has a strange tool with small notch. This tool was specially created for easily removing / replacing watch straps (for sure from Victorinox watches).
At the current moment, two variations of this tool were exists, current model has a first one (I’m still looking for second variation).
Photos:
One thought on “757. Classic Watch Strap Tool”If there’s anything that plays a role in determining an organization’s success today, it’s data. That’s why the mission of JotForm — to simplify the cumbersome process of collecting data — is so important. How does JotForm accomplish this? Through its easy-to-use, drag-and-drop online Form Builder.
JotForm not only simplifies the process of creating online forms but also allows you to customize your forms. A plethora of beautifully designed templates and themes enable companies to enhance their brand with online forms.
Who can use JotForm?
JotForm caters to companies from all types of industries and sectors. This