 the
bridge between the US and Europe, but with
Brexit this is no longer possible. There is a
danger that Trump may go straight to Berlin
and negotiate directly with the Germans, but
he has made supportive statements about
Brexit and warmly congratulated the British
people for their decision. Much will depend
on how Theresa May and Donald Trump get
on.
Nigel Farage, Interim Leader of the UKIP
(United Kingdom Independence Party), and
arch anti-European was not only prominent
during Trump’s election campaign in the US
he was also the first British politician to travel
to the US to congratulate Trump in person. It
is difficult to see what official role Farage
could play in our relationship with the US.
Many Brexiters in the Cabinet believe that
Trump will offer the UK the best chance of
new trade deals, something that president
Obama was unhelpful on. The Foreign
Secretary, Boris Johnson has also made
positive comments about Trump’s success.
My most recent experience at the Foreign
Office tells me two things. First, there is a
widely held view in Whitehall about American
presidencies. It is thought that while
Democrats take office armed with policies and
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK
Donald Trump has made it clear that he will
put America first.
the largest investor in the region and was a
major force behind the Peace treaty.
TRADE
The implications of Trump’s Presidency are
huge and largely unknown, and there is every
possibility that once he is installed in the Oval
Office he may not fulfil all his election
promises. His priorities may have to change
due to external factors. The world is littered
with World Leaders who campaign on
domestic issues, only to find they have to deal
with international affairs.
Trump’s vision for US trade makes no mention
of the UK or Europe. He concentrates on
NAFTA and China. His threat to impose a 45%
tariff on Chinese goods is worrying. China and
US relations matter for the world; they are two
of the strongest global economies and if they
enter into a trade war there could potentially
be repercussions for everyone.
DEFENCE AND SECURITY
These have been areas of common ground for
the UK and US in the past. The US has been
one of strongest intelligence-sharing partners
and we have worked together militarily and
have consensus on nuclear weapons.
Much of the world looks to America for
guidance, financial support and the upholding
of certain values. It will be interesting to see if
he will maintain that iconic position for the
United States, or whether it will it all unravel?
The World watches and waits.
Trump’s statements on NATO have been
stinging. His threat to withdraw support for
countries who are not paying their dues is
worrying. His eagerness to use torture could
hamper future intelligence relationships and
closeness to Russia and Vladimir Putin are
dangerous to the West’s collective security.
He has also indicated he is willing to renege
on the Iran nuclear deal, something that the
UK is very committed to and spent a lot of
diplomatic time on.
There is hope that once he gets into Office he
will quickly realise that allies, particularly
NATO countries, are important.
Trump has made much about his Scottish
connections, his mother was Scottish and he
owns two golf courses there. Nicola Sturgeon,
First Minster of Scotland, warned of ‘real
anxiety’ after Trump’s victory and has been
vociferous about her opposition to him.
The political leaders of Northern Ireland were
quick to remind Trump of the historical links
between their two countries. The US is by far
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK
America under Trump – It’s time for South
Africans to make South Africa great again
The majority of global political experts and
media houses predicted a Hillary Clinton
victory but were sorely disappointed when
Trump pulled a surprising victory out of the
bag. Perhaps this is the reason why, since
Donald Trump’s astonishing victory, it’s hard
to find any positive news coverage praising
Trump for a race well run or showing any
optimism for the future of America and the
world.
Trumps victory has resulted in a singular
global outlook for the future. That is
uncertainty. As the result was announced, the
South African rand weakened steadily due to
shaken investor confidence and heightened
indecision. There’s very little doubt that South
Africa could slip into a negative trade market
as local and international investors turn to
safer markets and investment instruments to
protect themselves from any uncertainty.
The short-term impact of Trump’s victory has
already pushed the gold price as investors
look to the precious metal for protection from
the impending volatility. The rand on the
other hand will reap the benefits of the
weaker dollar – this will be short lived. As the
dollar strengthens, there’ll be a new wave of
volatility for the South Africa currency.
The reality is that just like the results of the US
election, nobody is able to predict exactly
what will happen to the South African markets
when Trump takes control of the US
government on 20 January 2017. New risks
and opportunities will certainly emerge but it
might be difficult for South Africa to maintain
solid economic growth.
Many political and economic analysts believe
that Trump will turn his focus inwards. His
presidency will deliver South Africa with the
same level of economic uncertainty as Brexit
did early this year. Trump has made it clear
that he will put America first in every
international negotiation. It is important to
note that this inward-looking approach may
cause damage to international trade
relationships leaving emerging economies like
South Africa open to serious economic
challenges.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act
(Agoa) trade agreement may come under
severe pressure. It wavers the import levies on
approximately 7 000 products from 39 African
countries. Trump has been quite vocal about
his intentions to strengthen the America’s
domestic manufacturing businesses, which
means that he may add higher import duties
to these products.
Given the impending challenges, now is the
perfect time for South Africa to look inward
too. Economic vulnerabilities such as the
downgrade to junk combined with the
geographical challenges like the persisting
drought is putting a damper on economic
growth. That doesn’t mean that all is lost. By
implementing economic and structural
reforms to address the challenges of
corruption and infrastructure inadequacies,
South Africa can position itself as in
international destination of choice and the
gateway into Africa.
While the situation in the United States has
the potential to derail our emerging economy,
it is the responsibility of every South African
to ensure that we protect our democracy and
move our economy forward. This is the
moment that our collective resilience, our
diverse ideas and our ability to work together
must
be
used
to
overcome
the
unpredictability. It is time that our political
and economic leaders on both sides of the
fence stand together and show true
leadership.
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK
Though his election campaign dismayed many
in the Arab world, Donald J. Trump is unlikely to
implement radical foreign or economic policy
shifts that would alter strategic alliances with
allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE or impede
American interests in the Middle East.
While Arab government relationships have
varied in strength with past U.S. presidents, be
they republican or democrat, ultimately the
national interests of countries have determined
the course of a relationship with each
administration in office.
Though some notable Arab figures in the
business community in Dubai have been openly
critical of Trump, Arab governments have
adopted a wait and see approach with respect
to the president-elect. Numerous Arab leaders
(in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan,
Lebanon and others) have extended an open
hand to work with Trump.
The rhetoric used in the election campaign by
Trump is widely viewed by Arab governments as
tailored for the domestic consumption of
Americans, rather than directly linked to foreign
countries. Invariably, the opinion is that once he
assumes office, Trump is a businessman who is
unlikely to make radical changes that endanger
U.S. commercial interests and will move to the
center, solidifying ties with the UAE, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the wider region.
That said, Trump’s retaining of Walid Phares
during the election campaign as a foreign policy
advisor and his potential appointment to the
new administration, could have negative
implications (at a political not necessarily
commercial level) moving forward given his
neoconservative leanings and ardent antiMuslim views. Phares moved to the U.S. from
Lebanon where he took part in the country’s 15year civil war as a member of a radical Christian
militia. It is worth