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SubscribeReliable and Interpretable Drift Detection in Streams of Short Texts
Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences. Meaningful drift interpretation is a fundamental step towards effective re-training of the model. In this study we propose an end-to-end framework for reliable model-agnostic change-point detection and interpretation in large task-oriented dialog systems, proven effective in multiple customer deployments. We evaluate our approach and demonstrate its benefits with a novel variant of intent classification training dataset, simulating customer requests to a dialog system. We make the data publicly available.
Liquid Neural Network-based Adaptive Learning vs. Incremental Learning for Link Load Prediction amid Concept Drift due to Network Failures
Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.
MP2D: An Automated Topic Shift Dialogue Generation Framework Leveraging Knowledge Graphs
Despite advancements in on-topic dialogue systems, effectively managing topic shifts within dialogues remains a persistent challenge, largely attributed to the limited availability of training datasets. To address this issue, we propose Multi-Passage to Dialogue (MP2D), a data generation framework that automatically creates conversational question-answering datasets with natural topic transitions. By leveraging the relationships between entities in a knowledge graph, MP2D maps the flow of topics within a dialogue, effectively mirroring the dynamics of human conversation. It retrieves relevant passages corresponding to the topics and transforms them into dialogues through the passage-to-dialogue method. Through quantitative and qualitative experiments, we demonstrate MP2D's efficacy in generating dialogue with natural topic shifts. Furthermore, this study introduces a novel benchmark for topic shift dialogues, TS-WikiDialog. Utilizing the dataset, we demonstrate that even Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to handle topic shifts in dialogue effectively, and we showcase the performance improvements of models trained on datasets generated by MP2D across diverse topic shift dialogue tasks.
Topic Analysis of Superconductivity Literature by Semantic Non-negative Matrix Factorization
We utilize a recently developed topic modeling method called SeNMFk, extending the standard Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) methods by incorporating the semantic structure of the text, and adding a robust system for determining the number of topics. With SeNMFk, we were able to extract coherent topics validated by human experts. From these topics, a few are relatively general and cover broad concepts, while the majority can be precisely mapped to specific scientific effects or measurement techniques. The topics also differ by ubiquity, with only three topics prevalent in almost 40 percent of the abstract, while each specific topic tends to dominate a small subset of the abstracts. These results demonstrate the ability of SeNMFk to produce a layered and nuanced analysis of large scientific corpora.
Improving Long Document Topic Segmentation Models With Enhanced Coherence Modeling
Topic segmentation is critical for obtaining structured documents and improving downstream tasks such as information retrieval. Due to its ability of automatically exploring clues of topic shift from abundant labeled data, recent supervised neural models have greatly promoted the development of long document topic segmentation, but leaving the deeper relationship between coherence and topic segmentation underexplored. Therefore, this paper enhances the ability of supervised models to capture coherence from both logical structure and semantic similarity perspectives to further improve the topic segmentation performance, proposing Topic-aware Sentence Structure Prediction (TSSP) and Contrastive Semantic Similarity Learning (CSSL). Specifically, the TSSP task is proposed to force the model to comprehend structural information by learning the original relations between adjacent sentences in a disarrayed document, which is constructed by jointly disrupting the original document at topic and sentence levels. Moreover, we utilize inter- and intra-topic information to construct contrastive samples and design the CSSL objective to ensure that the sentences representations in the same topic have higher similarity, while those in different topics are less similar. Extensive experiments show that the Longformer with our approach significantly outperforms old state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Our approach improve F_1 of old SOTA by 3.42 (73.74 -> 77.16) and reduces P_k by 1.11 points (15.0 -> 13.89) on WIKI-727K and achieves an average relative reduction of 4.3% on P_k on WikiSection. The average relative P_k drop of 8.38% on two out-of-domain datasets also demonstrates the robustness of our approach.
Are Large Language Models Consistent over Value-laden Questions?
Large language models (LLMs) appear to bias their survey answers toward certain values. Nonetheless, some argue that LLMs are too inconsistent to simulate particular values. Are they? To answer, we first define value consistency as the similarity of answers across (1) paraphrases of one question, (2) related questions under one topic, (3) multiple-choice and open-ended use-cases of one question, and (4) multilingual translations of a question to English, Chinese, German, and Japanese. We apply these measures to a few large (>=34b), open LLMs including llama-3, as well as gpt-4o, using eight thousand questions spanning more than 300 topics. Unlike prior work, we find that models are relatively consistent across paraphrases, use-cases, translations, and within a topic. Still, some inconsistencies remain. Models are more consistent on uncontroversial topics (e.g., in the U.S., "Thanksgiving") than on controversial ones ("euthanasia"). Base models are both more consistent compared to fine-tuned models and are uniform in their consistency across topics, while fine-tuned models are more inconsistent about some topics ("euthanasia") than others ("women's rights") like our human subjects (n=165).
Topic Shift Detection in Chinese Dialogues: Corpus and Benchmark
Dialogue topic shift detection is to detect whether an ongoing topic has shifted or should shift in a dialogue, which can be divided into two categories, i.e., response-known task and response-unknown task. Currently, only a few investigated the latter, because it is still a challenge to predict the topic shift without the response information. In this paper, we first annotate a Chinese Natural Topic Dialogue (CNTD) corpus consisting of 1308 dialogues to fill the gap in the Chinese natural conversation topic corpus. And then we focus on the response-unknown task and propose a teacher-student framework based on hierarchical contrastive learning to predict the topic shift without the response. Specifically, the response at high-level teacher-student is introduced to build the contrastive learning between the response and the context, while the label contrastive learning is constructed at low-level student. The experimental results on our Chinese CNTD and English TIAGE show the effectiveness of our proposed model.
ClimaText: A Dataset for Climate Change Topic Detection
Climate change communication in the mass media and other textual sources may affect and shape public perception. Extracting climate change information from these sources is an important task, e.g., for filtering content and e-discovery, sentiment analysis, automatic summarization, question-answering, and fact-checking. However, automating this process is a challenge, as climate change is a complex, fast-moving, and often ambiguous topic with scarce resources for popular text-based AI tasks. In this paper, we introduce ClimaText, a dataset for sentence-based climate change topic detection, which we make publicly available. We explore different approaches to identify the climate change topic in various text sources. We find that popular keyword-based models are not adequate for such a complex and evolving task. Context-based algorithms like BERT devlin2018bert can detect, in addition to many trivial cases, a variety of complex and implicit topic patterns. Nevertheless, our analysis reveals a great potential for improvement in several directions, such as, e.g., capturing the discussion on indirect effects of climate change. Hence, we hope this work can serve as a good starting point for further research on this topic.
Online Learning for Recommendations at Grubhub
We propose a method to easily modify existing offline Recommender Systems to run online using Transfer Learning. Online Learning for Recommender Systems has two main advantages: quality and scale. Like many Machine Learning algorithms in production if not regularly retrained will suffer from Concept Drift. A policy that is updated frequently online can adapt to drift faster than a batch system. This is especially true for user-interaction systems like recommenders where the underlying distribution can shift drastically to follow user behaviour. As a platform grows rapidly like Grubhub, the cost of running batch training jobs becomes material. A shift from stateless batch learning offline to stateful incremental learning online can recover, for example, at Grubhub, up to a 45x cost savings and a +20% metrics increase. There are a few challenges to overcome with the transition to online stateful learning, namely convergence, non-stationary embeddings and off-policy evaluation, which we explore from our experiences running this system in production.
Topic Segmentation Model Focusing on Local Context
Topic segmentation is important in understanding scientific documents since it can not only provide better readability but also facilitate downstream tasks such as information retrieval and question answering by creating appropriate sections or paragraphs. In the topic segmentation task, topic coherence is critical in predicting segmentation boundaries. Most of the existing models have tried to exploit as many contexts as possible to extract useful topic-related information. However, additional context does not always bring promising results, because the local context between sentences becomes incoherent despite more sentences being supplemented. To alleviate this issue, we propose siamese sentence embedding layers which process two input sentences independently to get appropriate amount of information without being hampered by excessive information. Also, we adopt multi-task learning techniques including Same Topic Prediction (STP), Topic Classification (TC) and Next Sentence Prediction (NSP). When these three classification layers are combined in a multi-task manner, they can make up for each other's limitations, improving performance in all three tasks. We experiment different combinations of the three layers and report how each layer affects other layers in the same combination as well as the overall segmentation performance. The model we proposed achieves the state-of-the-art result in the WikiSection dataset.
Are Neural Topic Models Broken?
Recently, the relationship between automated and human evaluation of topic models has been called into question. Method developers have staked the efficacy of new topic model variants on automated measures, and their failure to approximate human preferences places these models on uncertain ground. Moreover, existing evaluation paradigms are often divorced from real-world use. Motivated by content analysis as a dominant real-world use case for topic modeling, we analyze two related aspects of topic models that affect their effectiveness and trustworthiness in practice for that purpose: the stability of their estimates and the extent to which the model's discovered categories align with human-determined categories in the data. We find that neural topic models fare worse in both respects compared to an established classical method. We take a step toward addressing both issues in tandem by demonstrating that a straightforward ensembling method can reliably outperform the members of the ensemble.
DeTiME: Diffusion-Enhanced Topic Modeling using Encoder-decoder based LLM
In the burgeoning field of natural language processing, Neural Topic Models (NTMs) and Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as areas of significant research interest. Despite this, NTMs primarily utilize contextual embeddings from LLMs, which are not optimal for clustering or capable for topic generation. Our study addresses this gap by introducing a novel framework named Diffusion-Enhanced Topic Modeling using Encoder-Decoder-based LLMs (DeTiME). DeTiME leverages ncoder-Decoder-based LLMs to produce highly clusterable embeddings that could generate topics that exhibit both superior clusterability and enhanced semantic coherence compared to existing methods. Additionally, by exploiting the power of diffusion, our framework also provides the capability to generate content relevant to the identified topics. This dual functionality allows users to efficiently produce highly clustered topics and related content simultaneously. DeTiME's potential extends to generating clustered embeddings as well. Notably, our proposed framework proves to be efficient to train and exhibits high adaptability, demonstrating its potential for a wide array of applications.
OTTers: One-turn Topic Transitions for Open-Domain Dialogue
Mixed initiative in open-domain dialogue requires a system to pro-actively introduce new topics. The one-turn topic transition task explores how a system connects two topics in a cooperative and coherent manner. The goal of the task is to generate a "bridging" utterance connecting the new topic to the topic of the previous conversation turn. We are especially interested in commonsense explanations of how a new topic relates to what has been mentioned before. We first collect a new dataset of human one-turn topic transitions, which we call OTTers. We then explore different strategies used by humans when asked to complete such a task, and notice that the use of a bridging utterance to connect the two topics is the approach used the most. We finally show how existing state-of-the-art text generation models can be adapted to this task and examine the performance of these baselines on different splits of the OTTers data.
A Novel Method of Fuzzy Topic Modeling based on Transformer Processing
Topic modeling is admittedly a convenient way to monitor markets trend. Conventionally, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, LDA, is considered a must-do model to gain this type of information. By given the merit of deducing keyword with token conditional probability in LDA, we can know the most possible or essential topic. However, the results are not intuitive because the given topics cannot wholly fit human knowledge. LDA offers the first possible relevant keywords, which also brings out another problem of whether the connection is reliable based on the statistic possibility. It is also hard to decide the topic number manually in advance. As the booming trend of using fuzzy membership to cluster and using transformers to embed words, this work presents the fuzzy topic modeling based on soft clustering and document embedding from state-of-the-art transformer-based model. In our practical application in a press release monitoring, the fuzzy topic modeling gives a more natural result than the traditional output from LDA.
Integrating Document Clustering and Topic Modeling
Document clustering and topic modeling are two closely related tasks which can mutually benefit each other. Topic modeling can project documents into a topic space which facilitates effective document clustering. Cluster labels discovered by document clustering can be incorporated into topic models to extract local topics specific to each cluster and global topics shared by all clusters. In this paper, we propose a multi-grain clustering topic model (MGCTM) which integrates document clustering and topic modeling into a unified framework and jointly performs the two tasks to achieve the overall best performance. Our model tightly couples two components: a mixture component used for discovering latent groups in document collection and a topic model component used for mining multi-grain topics including local topics specific to each cluster and global topics shared across clusters.We employ variational inference to approximate the posterior of hidden variables and learn model parameters. Experiments on two datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.
Room to Grow: Understanding Personal Characteristics Behind Self Improvement Using Social Media
Many people aim for change, but not everyone succeeds. While there are a number of social psychology theories that propose motivation-related characteristics of those who persist with change, few computational studies have explored the motivational stage of personal change. In this paper, we investigate a new dataset consisting of the writings of people who manifest intention to change, some of whom persist while others do not. Using a variety of linguistic analysis techniques, we first examine the writing patterns that distinguish the two groups of people. Persistent people tend to reference more topics related to long-term self-improvement and use a more complicated writing style. Drawing on these consistent differences, we build a classifier that can reliably identify the people more likely to persist, based on their language. Our experiments provide new insights into the motivation-related behavior of people who persist with their intention to change.
The Topic Confusion Task: A Novel Scenario for Authorship Attribution
Authorship attribution is the problem of identifying the most plausible author of an anonymous text from a set of candidate authors. Researchers have investigated same-topic and cross-topic scenarios of authorship attribution, which differ according to whether new, unseen topics are used in the testing phase. However, neither scenario allows us to explain whether errors are caused by a failure to capture authorship writing style or by a topic shift. Motivated by this, we propose the topic confusion task where we switch the author-topic configuration between the training and testing sets. This setup allows us to distinguish two types of errors: those caused by the topic shift and those caused by the features' inability to capture the writing styles. We show that stylometric features with part-of-speech tags are the least susceptible to topic variations. We further show that combining them with other features leads to significantly lower topic confusion and higher attribution accuracy. Finally, we show that pretrained language models such as BERT and RoBERTa perform poorly on this task and are surpassed by simple features such as word-level n-grams.
Bias or Diversity? Unraveling Fine-Grained Thematic Discrepancy in U.S. News Headlines
There is a broad consensus that news media outlets incorporate ideological biases in their news articles. However, prior studies on measuring the discrepancies among media outlets and further dissecting the origins of thematic differences suffer from small sample sizes and limited scope and granularity. In this study, we use a large dataset of 1.8 million news headlines from major U.S. media outlets spanning from 2014 to 2022 to thoroughly track and dissect the fine-grained thematic discrepancy in U.S. news media. We employ multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) to quantify the fine-grained thematic discrepancy related to four prominent topics - domestic politics, economic issues, social issues, and foreign affairs in order to derive a more holistic analysis. Additionally, we compare the most frequent n-grams in media headlines to provide further qualitative insights into our analysis. Our findings indicate that on domestic politics and social issues, the discrepancy can be attributed to a certain degree of media bias. Meanwhile, the discrepancy in reporting foreign affairs is largely attributed to the diversity in individual journalistic styles. Finally, U.S. media outlets show consistency and high similarity in their coverage of economic issues.
Towards the TopMost: A Topic Modeling System Toolkit
Topic models have been proposed for decades with various applications and recently refreshed by the neural variational inference. However, these topic models adopt totally distinct dataset, implementation, and evaluation settings, which hinders their quick utilization and fair comparisons. This greatly hinders the research progress of topic models. To address these issues, in this paper we propose a Topic Modeling System Toolkit (TopMost). Compared to existing toolkits, TopMost stands out by covering a wider range of topic modeling scenarios including complete lifecycles with dataset pre-processing, model training, testing, and evaluations. The highly cohesive and decoupled modular design of TopMost enables quick utilization, fair comparisons, and flexible extensions of different topic models. This can facilitate the research and applications of topic models. Our code, tutorials, and documentation are available at https://github.com/bobxwu/topmost.
Simple Domain Adaptation for Sparse Retrievers
In Information Retrieval, and more generally in Natural Language Processing, adapting models to specific domains is conducted through fine-tuning. Despite the successes achieved by this method and its versatility, the need for human-curated and labeled data makes it impractical to transfer to new tasks, domains, and/or languages when training data doesn't exist. Using the model without training (zero-shot) is another option that however suffers an effectiveness cost, especially in the case of first-stage retrievers. Numerous research directions have emerged to tackle these issues, most of them in the context of adapting to a task or a language. However, the literature is scarcer for domain (or topic) adaptation. In this paper, we address this issue of cross-topic discrepancy for a sparse first-stage retriever by transposing a method initially designed for language adaptation. By leveraging pre-training on the target data to learn domain-specific knowledge, this technique alleviates the need for annotated data and expands the scope of domain adaptation. Despite their relatively good generalization ability, we show that even sparse retrievers can benefit from our simple domain adaptation method.
Topic Segmentation of Semi-Structured and Unstructured Conversational Datasets using Language Models
Breaking down a document or a conversation into multiple contiguous segments based on its semantic structure is an important and challenging problem in NLP, which can assist many downstream tasks. However, current works on topic segmentation often focus on segmentation of structured texts. In this paper, we comprehensively analyze the generalization capabilities of state-of-the-art topic segmentation models on unstructured texts. We find that: (a) Current strategies of pre-training on a large corpus of structured text such as Wiki-727K do not help in transferability to unstructured conversational data. (b) Training from scratch with only a relatively small-sized dataset of the target unstructured domain improves the segmentation results by a significant margin. We stress-test our proposed Topic Segmentation approach by experimenting with multiple loss functions, in order to mitigate effects of imbalance in unstructured conversational datasets. Our empirical evaluation indicates that Focal Loss function is a robust alternative to Cross-Entropy and re-weighted Cross-Entropy loss function when segmenting unstructured and semi-structured chats.
Multi-Label Topic Model for Financial Textual Data
This paper presents a multi-label topic model for financial texts like ad-hoc announcements, 8-K filings, finance related news or annual reports. I train the model on a new financial multi-label database consisting of 3,044 German ad-hoc announcements that are labeled manually using 20 predefined, economically motivated topics. The best model achieves a macro F1 score of more than 85%. Translating the data results in an English version of the model with similar performance. As application of the model, I investigate differences in stock market reactions across topics. I find evidence for strong positive or negative market reactions for some topics, like announcements of new Large Scale Projects or Bankruptcy Filings, while I do not observe significant price effects for some other topics. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, the multi-label structure of the model allows to analyze the effects of co-occurring topics on stock market reactions. For many cases, the reaction to a specific topic depends heavily on the co-occurrence with other topics. For example, if allocated capital from a Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO) is used for restructuring a company in the course of a Bankruptcy Proceeding, the market reacts positively on average. However, if that capital is used for covering unexpected, additional costs from the development of new drugs, the SEO implies negative reactions on average.
Effective Neural Topic Modeling with Embedding Clustering Regularization
Topic models have been prevalent for decades with various applications. However, existing topic models commonly suffer from the notorious topic collapsing: discovered topics semantically collapse towards each other, leading to highly repetitive topics, insufficient topic discovery, and damaged model interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new neural topic model, Embedding Clustering Regularization Topic Model (ECRTM). Besides the existing reconstruction error, we propose a novel Embedding Clustering Regularization (ECR), which forces each topic embedding to be the center of a separately aggregated word embedding cluster in the semantic space. This enables each produced topic to contain distinct word semantics, which alleviates topic collapsing. Regularized by ECR, our ECRTM generates diverse and coherent topics together with high-quality topic distributions of documents. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that ECRTM effectively addresses the topic collapsing issue and consistently surpasses state-of-the-art baselines in terms of topic quality, topic distributions of documents, and downstream classification tasks.
Twitter Topic Classification
Social media platforms host discussions about a wide variety of topics that arise everyday. Making sense of all the content and organising it into categories is an arduous task. A common way to deal with this issue is relying on topic modeling, but topics discovered using this technique are difficult to interpret and can differ from corpus to corpus. In this paper, we present a new task based on tweet topic classification and release two associated datasets. Given a wide range of topics covering the most important discussion points in social media, we provide training and testing data from recent time periods that can be used to evaluate tweet classification models. Moreover, we perform a quantitative evaluation and analysis of current general- and domain-specific language models on the task, which provide more insights on the challenges and nature of the task.
Lisa: Lazy Safety Alignment for Large Language Models against Harmful Fine-tuning Attack
Recent studies show that Large Language Models (LLMs) with safety alignment can be jail-broken by fine-tuning on a dataset mixed with harmful data. First time in the literature, we show that the jail-broken effect can be mitigated by separating states in the finetuning stage to optimize the alignment and user datasets. Unfortunately, our subsequent study shows that this simple Bi-State Optimization (BSO) solution experiences convergence instability when steps invested in its alignment state is too small, leading to downgraded alignment performance. By statistical analysis, we show that the excess drift towards consensus could be a probable reason for the instability. To remedy this issue, we propose Lazy(i) safety alignment (Lisa), which introduces a proximal term to constraint the drift of each state. Theoretically, the benefit of the proximal term is supported by the convergence analysis, wherein we show that a sufficient large proximal factor is necessary to guarantee Lisa's convergence. Empirically, our results on four downstream finetuning tasks show that Lisa with a proximal term can significantly increase alignment performance while maintaining the LLM's accuracy on the user tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/git-disl/Lisa.
The Dynamics of (Not) Unfollowing Misinformation Spreaders
Many studies explore how people 'come into' misinformation exposure. But much less is known about how people 'come out of' misinformation exposure. Do people organically sever ties to misinformation spreaders? And what predicts doing so? Over six months, we tracked the frequency and predictors of ~1M followers unfollowing ~5K health misinformation spreaders on Twitter. We found that misinformation ties are persistent. Monthly unfollowing rates are just 0.52%. Users are also 31% more likely to unfollow non-misinformation spreaders than they are to unfollow misinformation spreaders. Although generally infrequent, the factors most associated with unfollowing misinformation spreaders are (1) redundancy and (2) ideology. First, users initially following many spreaders, or who follow spreaders that tweet often, are most likely to unfollow later. Second, liberals are more likely to unfollow than conservatives. Overall, we observe strong persistence of misinformation ties. The fact that users rarely unfollow misinformation spreaders suggests a need for external nudges and the importance of preventing exposure from arising in the first place.
Top2Vec: Distributed Representations of Topics
Topic modeling is used for discovering latent semantic structure, usually referred to as topics, in a large collection of documents. The most widely used methods are Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis. Despite their popularity they have several weaknesses. In order to achieve optimal results they often require the number of topics to be known, custom stop-word lists, stemming, and lemmatization. Additionally these methods rely on bag-of-words representation of documents which ignore the ordering and semantics of words. Distributed representations of documents and words have gained popularity due to their ability to capture semantics of words and documents. We present top2vec, which leverages joint document and word semantic embedding to find topic vectors. This model does not require stop-word lists, stemming or lemmatization, and it automatically finds the number of topics. The resulting topic vectors are jointly embedded with the document and word vectors with distance between them representing semantic similarity. Our experiments demonstrate that top2vec finds topics which are significantly more informative and representative of the corpus trained on than probabilistic generative models.
Structural Text Segmentation of Legal Documents
The growing complexity of legal cases has lead to an increasing interest in legal information retrieval systems that can effectively satisfy user-specific information needs. However, such downstream systems typically require documents to be properly formatted and segmented, which is often done with relatively simple pre-processing steps, disregarding topical coherence of segments. Systems generally rely on representations of individual sentences or paragraphs, which may lack crucial context, or document-level representations, which are too long for meaningful search results. To address this issue, we propose a segmentation system that can predict topical coherence of sequential text segments spanning several paragraphs, effectively segmenting a document and providing a more balanced representation for downstream applications. We build our model on top of popular transformer networks and formulate structural text segmentation as topical change detection, by performing a series of independent classifications that allow for efficient fine-tuning on task-specific data. We crawl a novel dataset consisting of roughly 74,000 online Terms-of-Service documents, including hierarchical topic annotations, which we use for training. Results show that our proposed system significantly outperforms baselines, and adapts well to structural peculiarities of legal documents. We release both data and trained models to the research community for future work.https://github.com/dennlinger/TopicalChange
MiCRO: Multi-interest Candidate Retrieval Online
Providing personalized recommendations in an environment where items exhibit ephemerality and temporal relevancy (e.g. in social media) presents a few unique challenges: (1) inductively understanding ephemeral appeal for items in a setting where new items are created frequently, (2) adapting to trends within engagement patterns where items may undergo temporal shifts in relevance, (3) accurately modeling user preferences over this item space where users may express multiple interests. In this work we introduce MiCRO, a generative statistical framework that models multi-interest user preferences and temporal multi-interest item representations. Our framework is specifically formulated to adapt to both new items and temporal patterns of engagement. MiCRO demonstrates strong empirical performance on candidate retrieval experiments performed on two large scale user-item datasets: (1) an open-source temporal dataset of (User, User) follow interactions and (2) a temporal dataset of (User, Tweet) favorite interactions which we will open-source as an additional contribution to the community.
Unveiling the Hidden Agenda: Biases in News Reporting and Consumption
One of the most pressing challenges in the digital media landscape is understanding the impact of biases on the news sources that people rely on for information. Biased news can have significant and far-reaching consequences, influencing our perspectives and shaping the decisions we make, potentially endangering the public and individual well-being. With the advent of the Internet and social media, discussions have moved online, making it easier to disseminate both accurate and inaccurate information. To combat mis- and dis-information, many have begun to evaluate the reliability of news sources, but these assessments often only examine the validity of the news (narrative bias) and neglect other types of biases, such as the deliberate selection of events to favor certain perspectives (selection bias). This paper aims to investigate these biases in various news sources and their correlation with third-party evaluations of reliability, engagement, and online audiences. Using machine learning to classify content, we build a six-year dataset on the Italian vaccine debate and adopt a Bayesian latent space model to identify narrative and selection biases. Our results show that the source classification provided by third-party organizations closely follows the narrative bias dimension, while it is much less accurate in identifying the selection bias. Moreover, we found a nonlinear relationship between biases and engagement, with higher engagement for extreme positions. Lastly, analysis of news consumption on Twitter reveals common audiences among news outlets with similar ideological positions.
S^3 -- Semantic Signal Separation
Topic models are useful tools for discovering latent semantic structures in large textual corpora. Topic modeling historically relied on bag-of-words representations of language. This approach makes models sensitive to the presence of stop words and noise, and does not utilize potentially useful contextual information. Recent efforts have been oriented at incorporating contextual neural representations in topic modeling and have been shown to outperform classical topic models. These approaches are, however, typically slow, volatile and still require preprocessing for optimal results. We present Semantic Signal Separation (S^3), a theory-driven topic modeling approach in neural embedding spaces. S^3 conceptualizes topics as independent axes of semantic space, and uncovers these with blind-source separation. Our approach provides the most diverse, highly coherent topics, requires no preprocessing, and is demonstrated to be the fastest contextually sensitive topic model to date. We offer an implementation of S^3, among other approaches, in the Turftopic Python package.
Is Automated Topic Model Evaluation Broken?: The Incoherence of Coherence
Topic model evaluation, like evaluation of other unsupervised methods, can be contentious. However, the field has coalesced around automated estimates of topic coherence, which rely on the frequency of word co-occurrences in a reference corpus. Contemporary neural topic models surpass classical ones according to these metrics. At the same time, topic model evaluation suffers from a validation gap: automated coherence, developed for classical models, has not been validated using human experimentation for neural models. In addition, a meta-analysis of topic modeling literature reveals a substantial standardization gap in automated topic modeling benchmarks. To address the validation gap, we compare automated coherence with the two most widely accepted human judgment tasks: topic rating and word intrusion. To address the standardization gap, we systematically evaluate a dominant classical model and two state-of-the-art neural models on two commonly used datasets. Automated evaluations declare a winning model when corresponding human evaluations do not, calling into question the validity of fully automatic evaluations independent of human judgments.
textTOvec: Deep Contextualized Neural Autoregressive Topic Models of Language with Distributed Compositional Prior
We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.
Detecting Dataset Drift and Non-IID Sampling via k-Nearest Neighbors
We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab
Dynamics of (mis)information flow and engaging power of narratives
The debate around misinformation and its potentially detrimental effects on public opinion is complex and multifaceted, to the extent that even the relevant academic research has not found unanimity on the prevalence and consumption of misinformation compared with mainstream content. The methodological framework presented here emphasises the importance of considering data representative of the complexity of the phenomenon and metrics that control for possible scale effects. By combining statistical, econometric and machine learning models, we shed light on the real impact of misinformation about a subject of general interest and social relevance, such as vaccines, on both the information available to citizens and their news diet. Our results show the prominent role achieved by misinformation sources in the news ecosystem, but also - and above all - the inability of mainstream media to drive the public debate over time on issues that are particularly sensitive and emotional. Taking properly account for the temporal dynamics of public debate seems crucial to prevent the latter from moving into uncontrolled spaces where false narratives are more easily conveyed and entrenched.
Multi-Source Social Feedback of Online News Feeds
The profusion of user generated content caused by the rise of social media platforms has enabled a surge in research relating to fields such as information retrieval, recommender systems, data mining and machine learning. However, the lack of comprehensive baseline data sets to allow a thorough evaluative comparison has become an important issue. In this paper we present a large data set of news items from well-known aggregators such as Google News and Yahoo! News, and their respective social feedback on multiple platforms: Facebook, Google+ and LinkedIn. The data collected relates to a period of 8 months, between November 2015 and July 2016, accounting for about 100,000 news items on four different topics: economy, microsoft, obama and palestine. This data set is tailored for evaluative comparisons in predictive analytics tasks, although allowing for tasks in other research areas such as topic detection and tracking, sentiment analysis in short text, first story detection or news recommendation.
Computational Assessment of Hyperpartisanship in News Titles
We first adopt a human-guided machine learning framework to develop a new dataset for hyperpartisan news title detection with 2,200 manually labeled and 1.8 million machine-labeled titles that were posted from 2014 to the present by nine representative media organizations across three media bias groups - Left, Central, and Right in an active learning manner. The fine-tuned transformer-based language model achieves an overall accuracy of 0.84 and an F1 score of 0.78 on an external validation set. Next, we conduct a computational analysis to quantify the extent and dynamics of partisanship in news titles. While some aspects are as expected, our study reveals new or nuanced differences between the three media groups. We find that overall the Right media tends to use proportionally more hyperpartisan titles. Roughly around the 2016 Presidential Election, the proportions of hyperpartisan titles increased in all media bias groups where the relative increase in the proportion of hyperpartisan titles of the Left media was the most. We identify three major topics including foreign issues, political systems, and societal issues that are suggestive of hyperpartisanship in news titles using logistic regression models and the Shapley values. Through an analysis of the topic distribution, we find that societal issues gradually receive more attention from all media groups. We further apply a lexicon-based language analysis tool to the titles of each topic and quantify the linguistic distance between any pairs of the three media groups. Three distinct patterns are discovered. The Left media is linguistically more different from Central and Right in terms of foreign issues. The linguistic distance between the three media groups becomes smaller over recent years. In addition, a seasonal pattern where linguistic difference is associated with elections is observed for societal issues.
How Inclusive Are Wikipedia's Hyperlinks in Articles Covering Polarizing Topics?
Wikipedia relies on an extensive review process to verify that the content of each individual page is unbiased and presents a neutral point of view. Less attention has been paid to possible biases in the hyperlink structure of Wikipedia, which has a significant influence on the user's exploration process when visiting more than one page. The evaluation of hyperlink bias is challenging because it depends on the global view rather than the text of individual pages. In this paper, we focus on the influence of the interconnect topology between articles describing complementary aspects of polarizing topics. We introduce a novel measure of exposure to diverse information to quantify users' exposure to different aspects of a topic throughout an entire surfing session, rather than just one click ahead. We apply this measure to six polarizing topics (e.g., gun control and gun right), and we identify cases in which the network topology significantly limits the exposure of users to diverse information on the topic, encouraging users to remain in a knowledge bubble. Our findings demonstrate the importance of evaluating Wikipedia's network structure in addition to the extensive review of individual articles.
NewsEdits 2.0: Learning the Intentions Behind Updating News
As events progress, news articles often update with new information: if we are not cautious, we risk propagating outdated facts. In this work, we hypothesize that linguistic features indicate factual fluidity, and that we can predict which facts in a news article will update using solely the text of a news article (i.e. not external resources like search engines). We test this hypothesis, first, by isolating fact-updates in large news revisions corpora. News articles may update for many reasons (e.g. factual, stylistic, narrative). We introduce the NewsEdits 2.0 taxonomy, an edit-intentions schema that separates fact updates from stylistic and narrative updates in news writing. We annotate over 9,200 pairs of sentence revisions and train high-scoring ensemble models to apply this schema. Then, taking a large dataset of silver-labeled pairs, we show that we can predict when facts will update in older article drafts with high precision. Finally, to demonstrate the usefulness of these findings, we construct a language model question asking (LLM-QA) abstention task. We wish the LLM to abstain from answering questions when information is likely to become outdated. Using our predictions, we show, LLM absention reaches near oracle levels of accuracy.
Mitigating Data Sparsity for Short Text Topic Modeling by Topic-Semantic Contrastive Learning
To overcome the data sparsity issue in short text topic modeling, existing methods commonly rely on data augmentation or the data characteristic of short texts to introduce more word co-occurrence information. However, most of them do not make full use of the augmented data or the data characteristic: they insufficiently learn the relations among samples in data, leading to dissimilar topic distributions of semantically similar text pairs. To better address data sparsity, in this paper we propose a novel short text topic modeling framework, Topic-Semantic Contrastive Topic Model (TSCTM). To sufficiently model the relations among samples, we employ a new contrastive learning method with efficient positive and negative sampling strategies based on topic semantics. This contrastive learning method refines the representations, enriches the learning signals, and thus mitigates the sparsity issue. Extensive experimental results show that our TSCTM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines regardless of the data augmentation availability, producing high-quality topics and topic distributions.
IssueBench: Millions of Realistic Prompts for Measuring Issue Bias in LLM Writing Assistance
Large language models (LLMs) are helping millions of users write texts about diverse issues, and in doing so expose users to different ideas and perspectives. This creates concerns about issue bias, where an LLM tends to present just one perspective on a given issue, which in turn may influence how users think about this issue. So far, it has not been possible to measure which issue biases LLMs actually manifest in real user interactions, making it difficult to address the risks from biased LLMs. Therefore, we create IssueBench: a set of 2.49m realistic prompts for measuring issue bias in LLM writing assistance, which we construct based on 3.9k templates (e.g. "write a blog about") and 212 political issues (e.g. "AI regulation") from real user interactions. Using IssueBench, we show that issue biases are common and persistent in state-of-the-art LLMs. We also show that biases are remarkably similar across models, and that all models align more with US Democrat than Republican voter opinion on a subset of issues. IssueBench can easily be adapted to include other issues, templates, or tasks. By enabling robust and realistic measurement, we hope that IssueBench can bring a new quality of evidence to ongoing discussions about LLM biases and how to address them.
TopicGPT: A Prompt-based Topic Modeling Framework
Topic modeling is a well-established technique for exploring text corpora. Conventional topic models (e.g., LDA) represent topics as bags of words that often require "reading the tea leaves" to interpret; additionally, they offer users minimal semantic control over topics. To tackle these issues, we introduce TopicGPT, a prompt-based framework that uses large language models (LLMs) to uncover latent topics within a provided text collection. TopicGPT produces topics that align better with human categorizations compared to competing methods: for example, it achieves a harmonic mean purity of 0.74 against human-annotated Wikipedia topics compared to 0.64 for the strongest baseline. Its topics are also more interpretable, dispensing with ambiguous bags of words in favor of topics with natural language labels and associated free-form descriptions. Moreover, the framework is highly adaptable, allowing users to specify constraints and modify topics without the need for model retraining. TopicGPT can be further extended to hierarchical topical modeling, enabling users to explore topics at various levels of granularity. By streamlining access to high-quality and interpretable topics, TopicGPT represents a compelling, human-centered approach to topic modeling.
Adaptation Strategies for Automated Machine Learning on Evolving Data
Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) systems have been shown to efficiently build good models for new datasets. However, it is often not clear how well they can adapt when the data evolves over time. The main goal of this study is to understand the effect of data stream challenges such as concept drift on the performance of AutoML methods, and which adaptation strategies can be employed to make them more robust. To that end, we propose 6 concept drift adaptation strategies and evaluate their effectiveness on different AutoML approaches. We do this for a variety of AutoML approaches for building machine learning pipelines, including those that leverage Bayesian optimization, genetic programming, and random search with automated stacking. These are evaluated empirically on real-world and synthetic data streams with different types of concept drift. Based on this analysis, we propose ways to develop more sophisticated and robust AutoML techniques.
Topic Modeling as Multi-Objective Contrastive Optimization
Recent representation learning approaches enhance neural topic models by optimizing the weighted linear combination of the evidence lower bound (ELBO) of the log-likelihood and the contrastive learning objective that contrasts pairs of input documents. However, document-level contrastive learning might capture low-level mutual information, such as word ratio, which disturbs topic modeling. Moreover, there is a potential conflict between the ELBO loss that memorizes input details for better reconstruction quality, and the contrastive loss which attempts to learn topic representations that generalize among input documents. To address these issues, we first introduce a novel contrastive learning method oriented towards sets of topic vectors to capture useful semantics that are shared among a set of input documents. Secondly, we explicitly cast contrastive topic modeling as a gradient-based multi-objective optimization problem, with the goal of achieving a Pareto stationary solution that balances the trade-off between the ELBO and the contrastive objective. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework consistently produces higher-performing neural topic models in terms of topic coherence, topic diversity, and downstream performance.
InfoDiffusion: Information Entropy Aware Diffusion Process for Non-Autoregressive Text Generation
Diffusion models have garnered considerable interest in the field of text generation. Several studies have explored text diffusion models with different structures and applied them to various tasks, including named entity recognition and summarization. However, there exists a notable disparity between the "easy-first" text generation process of current diffusion models and the "keyword-first" natural text generation process of humans, which has received limited attention. To bridge this gap, we propose InfoDiffusion, a non-autoregressive text diffusion model. Our approach introduces a "keyinfo-first" generation strategy and incorporates a noise schedule based on the amount of text information. In addition, InfoDiffusion combines self-conditioning with a newly proposed partially noising model structure. Experimental results show that InfoDiffusion outperforms the baseline model in terms of generation quality and diversity, as well as exhibiting higher sampling efficiency.
FACT: Examining the Effectiveness of Iterative Context Rewriting for Multi-fact Retrieval
Large Language Models (LLMs) are proficient at retrieving single facts from extended contexts, yet they struggle with tasks requiring the simultaneous retrieval of multiple facts, especially during generation. This paper identifies a novel "lost-in-the-middle" phenomenon, where LLMs progressively lose track of critical information throughout the generation process, resulting in incomplete or inaccurate retrieval. To address this challenge, we introduce Find All Crucial Texts (FACT), an iterative retrieval method that refines context through successive rounds of rewriting. This approach enables models to capture essential facts incrementally, which are often overlooked in single-pass retrieval. Experiments demonstrate that FACT substantially enhances multi-fact retrieval performance across various tasks, though improvements are less notable in general-purpose QA scenarios. Our findings shed light on the limitations of LLMs in multi-fact retrieval and underscore the need for more resilient long-context retrieval strategies.
AutoCast++: Enhancing World Event Prediction with Zero-shot Ranking-based Context Retrieval
Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.
Disagreement as a way to study misinformation and its effects
Misinformation - false or misleading information - is considered a significant societal concern due to its associated "misinformation effects," such as political polarization, erosion of trust in institutions, problematic behavior, and public health challenges. However, the prevailing concept is misaligned with what is studied. While misinformation focuses on instances of information about factual matters, the broad spectrum of effects often manifests at a societal level and is shaped by a wide range of interdependent factors such as identity, values, opinions, epistemologies, and disagreements. Unsurprisingly, misinformation effects can occur without the prevalence of misinformation, and misinformation does not necessarily increase the effects studied. Here, we propose using disagreement - conflicting attitudes and beliefs between individuals and communities - as a way to study misinformation effects because it addresses the identified conceptual limitations of misinformation. Furthermore, unlike misinformation, disagreement does not require researchers to determine whether a given information is false or misleading. Thus, it can be studied and, more importantly, measured without the need to make a normative judgment about a given information, even when the specific topic is entirely removed, as we show in a longitudinal disagreement measurement. We demonstrate that disagreement, as a holistic concept, provides better explanations for the occurrence of misinformation effects, enhances precision in developing appropriate interventions, and offers a promising approach for evaluating them through quantification. Finally, we show how disagreement addresses current misinformation research questions and conclude with recommendations for research practice.
Whose Opinions Do Language Models Reflect?
Language models (LMs) are increasingly being used in open-ended contexts, where the opinions reflected by LMs in response to subjective queries can have a profound impact, both on user satisfaction, as well as shaping the views of society at large. In this work, we put forth a quantitative framework to investigate the opinions reflected by LMs -- by leveraging high-quality public opinion polls and their associated human responses. Using this framework, we create OpinionsQA, a new dataset for evaluating the alignment of LM opinions with those of 60 US demographic groups over topics ranging from abortion to automation. Across topics, we find substantial misalignment between the views reflected by current LMs and those of US demographic groups: on par with the Democrat-Republican divide on climate change. Notably, this misalignment persists even after explicitly steering the LMs towards particular demographic groups. Our analysis not only confirms prior observations about the left-leaning tendencies of some human feedback-tuned LMs, but also surfaces groups whose opinions are poorly reflected by current LMs (e.g., 65+ and widowed individuals). Our code and data are available at https://github.com/tatsu-lab/opinions_qa.
On the Generalization of Training-based ChatGPT Detection Methods
ChatGPT is one of the most popular language models which achieve amazing performance on various natural language tasks. Consequently, there is also an urgent need to detect the texts generated ChatGPT from human written. One of the extensively studied methods trains classification models to distinguish both. However, existing studies also demonstrate that the trained models may suffer from distribution shifts (during test), i.e., they are ineffective to predict the generated texts from unseen language tasks or topics. In this work, we aim to have a comprehensive investigation on these methods' generalization behaviors under distribution shift caused by a wide range of factors, including prompts, text lengths, topics, and language tasks. To achieve this goal, we first collect a new dataset with human and ChatGPT texts, and then we conduct extensive studies on the collected dataset. Our studies unveil insightful findings which provide guidance for developing future methodologies or data collection strategies for ChatGPT detection.
Multilingual Topic Classification in X: Dataset and Analysis
In the dynamic realm of social media, diverse topics are discussed daily, transcending linguistic boundaries. However, the complexities of understanding and categorising this content across various languages remain an important challenge with traditional techniques like topic modelling often struggling to accommodate this multilingual diversity. In this paper, we introduce X-Topic, a multilingual dataset featuring content in four distinct languages (English, Spanish, Japanese, and Greek), crafted for the purpose of tweet topic classification. Our dataset includes a wide range of topics, tailored for social media content, making it a valuable resource for scientists and professionals working on cross-linguistic analysis, the development of robust multilingual models, and computational scientists studying online dialogue. Finally, we leverage X-Topic to perform a comprehensive cross-linguistic and multilingual analysis, and compare the capabilities of current general- and domain-specific language models.
TopiOCQA: Open-domain Conversational Question Answering with Topic Switching
In a conversational question answering scenario, a questioner seeks to extract information about a topic through a series of interdependent questions and answers. As the conversation progresses, they may switch to related topics, a phenomenon commonly observed in information-seeking search sessions. However, current datasets for conversational question answering are limiting in two ways: 1) they do not contain topic switches; and 2) they assume the reference text for the conversation is given, i.e., the setting is not open-domain. We introduce TopiOCQA (pronounced Tapioca), an open-domain conversational dataset with topic switches on Wikipedia. TopiOCQA contains 3,920 conversations with information-seeking questions and free-form answers. On average, a conversation in our dataset spans 13 question-answer turns and involves four topics (documents). TopiOCQA poses a challenging test-bed for models, where efficient retrieval is required on multiple turns of the same conversation, in conjunction with constructing valid responses using conversational history. We evaluate several baselines, by combining state-of-the-art document retrieval methods with neural reader models. Our best model achieves F1 of 55.8, falling short of human performance by 14.2 points, indicating the difficulty of our dataset. Our dataset and code is available at https://mcgill-nlp.github.io/topiocqa
Generative Echo Chamber? Effects of LLM-Powered Search Systems on Diverse Information Seeking
Large language models (LLMs) powered conversational search systems have already been used by hundreds of millions of people, and are believed to bring many benefits over conventional search. However, while decades of research and public discourse interrogated the risk of search systems in increasing selective exposure and creating echo chambers -- limiting exposure to diverse opinions and leading to opinion polarization, little is known about such a risk of LLM-powered conversational search. We conduct two experiments to investigate: 1) whether and how LLM-powered conversational search increases selective exposure compared to conventional search; 2) whether and how LLMs with opinion biases that either reinforce or challenge the user's view change the effect. Overall, we found that participants engaged in more biased information querying with LLM-powered conversational search, and an opinionated LLM reinforcing their views exacerbated this bias. These results present critical implications for the development of LLMs and conversational search systems, and the policy governing these technologies.
Context is Key(NMF): Modelling Topical Information Dynamics in Chinese Diaspora Media
Does the People's Republic of China (PRC) interfere with European elections through ethnic Chinese diaspora media? This question forms the basis of an ongoing research project exploring how PRC narratives about European elections are represented in Chinese diaspora media, and thus the objectives of PRC news media manipulation. In order to study diaspora media efficiently and at scale, it is necessary to use techniques derived from quantitative text analysis, such as topic modelling. In this paper, we present a pipeline for studying information dynamics in Chinese media. Firstly, we present KeyNMF, a new approach to static and dynamic topic modelling using transformer-based contextual embedding models. We provide benchmark evaluations to demonstrate that our approach is competitive on a number of Chinese datasets and metrics. Secondly, we integrate KeyNMF with existing methods for describing information dynamics in complex systems. We apply this pipeline to data from five news sites, focusing on the period of time leading up to the 2024 European parliamentary elections. Our methods and results demonstrate the effectiveness of KeyNMF for studying information dynamics in Chinese media and lay groundwork for further work addressing the broader research questions.
Assessing In-context Learning and Fine-tuning for Topic Classification of German Web Data
Researchers in the political and social sciences often rely on classification models to analyze trends in information consumption by examining browsing histories of millions of webpages. Automated scalable methods are necessary due to the impracticality of manual labeling. In this paper, we model the detection of topic-related content as a binary classification task and compare the accuracy of fine-tuned pre-trained encoder models against in-context learning strategies. Using only a few hundred annotated data points per topic, we detect content related to three German policies in a database of scraped webpages. We compare multilingual and monolingual models, as well as zero and few-shot approaches, and investigate the impact of negative sampling strategies and the combination of URL & content-based features. Our results show that a small sample of annotated data is sufficient to train an effective classifier. Fine-tuning encoder-based models yields better results than in-context learning. Classifiers using both URL & content-based features perform best, while using URLs alone provides adequate results when content is unavailable.
Newswire: A Large-Scale Structured Database of a Century of Historical News
In the U.S. historically, local newspapers drew their content largely from newswires like the Associated Press. Historians argue that newswires played a pivotal role in creating a national identity and shared understanding of the world, but there is no comprehensive archive of the content sent over newswires. We reconstruct such an archive by applying a customized deep learning pipeline to hundreds of terabytes of raw image scans from thousands of local newspapers. The resulting dataset contains 2.7 million unique public domain U.S. newswire articles, written between 1878 and 1977. Locations in these articles are georeferenced, topics are tagged using customized neural topic classification, named entities are recognized, and individuals are disambiguated to Wikipedia using a novel entity disambiguation model. To construct the Newswire dataset, we first recognize newspaper layouts and transcribe around 138 millions structured article texts from raw image scans. We then use a customized neural bi-encoder model to de-duplicate reproduced articles, in the presence of considerable abridgement and noise, quantifying how widely each article was reproduced. A text classifier is used to ensure that we only include newswire articles, which historically are in the public domain. The structured data that accompany the texts provide rich information about the who (disambiguated individuals), what (topics), and where (georeferencing) of the news that millions of Americans read over the course of a century. We also include Library of Congress metadata information about the newspapers that ran the articles on their front pages. The Newswire dataset is useful both for large language modeling - expanding training data beyond what is available from modern web texts - and for studying a diversity of questions in computational linguistics, social science, and the digital humanities.
Is Neural Topic Modelling Better than Clustering? An Empirical Study on Clustering with Contextual Embeddings for Topics
Recent work incorporates pre-trained word embeddings such as BERT embeddings into Neural Topic Models (NTMs), generating highly coherent topics. However, with high-quality contextualized document representations, do we really need sophisticated neural models to obtain coherent and interpretable topics? In this paper, we conduct thorough experiments showing that directly clustering high-quality sentence embeddings with an appropriate word selecting method can generate more coherent and diverse topics than NTMs, achieving also higher efficiency and simplicity.
UCTopic: Unsupervised Contrastive Learning for Phrase Representations and Topic Mining
High-quality phrase representations are essential to finding topics and related terms in documents (a.k.a. topic mining). Existing phrase representation learning methods either simply combine unigram representations in a context-free manner or rely on extensive annotations to learn context-aware knowledge. In this paper, we propose UCTopic, a novel unsupervised contrastive learning framework for context-aware phrase representations and topic mining. UCTopic is pretrained in a large scale to distinguish if the contexts of two phrase mentions have the same semantics. The key to pretraining is positive pair construction from our phrase-oriented assumptions. However, we find traditional in-batch negatives cause performance decay when finetuning on a dataset with small topic numbers. Hence, we propose cluster-assisted contrastive learning(CCL) which largely reduces noisy negatives by selecting negatives from clusters and further improves phrase representations for topics accordingly. UCTopic outperforms the state-of-the-art phrase representation model by 38.2% NMI in average on four entity cluster-ing tasks. Comprehensive evaluation on topic mining shows that UCTopic can extract coherent and diverse topical phrases.
Contextualized Topic Coherence Metrics
The recent explosion in work on neural topic modeling has been criticized for optimizing automated topic evaluation metrics at the expense of actual meaningful topic identification. But human annotation remains expensive and time-consuming. We propose LLM-based methods inspired by standard human topic evaluations, in a family of metrics called Contextualized Topic Coherence (CTC). We evaluate both a fully automated version as well as a semi-automated CTC that allows human-centered evaluation of coherence while maintaining the efficiency of automated methods. We evaluate CTC relative to five other metrics on six topic models and find that it outperforms automated topic coherence methods, works well on short documents, and is not susceptible to meaningless but high-scoring topics.
Forecasting Open-Weight AI Model Growth on Hugging Face
As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.
Can ChatGPT Compute Trustworthy Sentiment Scores from Bloomberg Market Wraps?
We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.
Do Differences in Values Influence Disagreements in Online Discussions?
Disagreements are common in online discussions. Disagreement may foster collaboration and improve the quality of a discussion under some conditions. Although there exist methods for recognizing disagreement, a deeper understanding of factors that influence disagreement is lacking in the literature. We investigate a hypothesis that differences in personal values are indicative of disagreement in online discussions. We show how state-of-the-art models can be used for estimating values in online discussions and how the estimated values can be aggregated into value profiles. We evaluate the estimated value profiles based on human-annotated agreement labels. We find that the dissimilarity of value profiles correlates with disagreement in specific cases. We also find that including value information in agreement prediction improves performance.
DEBACER: a method for slicing moderated debates
Subjects change frequently in moderated debates with several participants, such as in parliamentary sessions, electoral debates, and trials. Partitioning a debate into blocks with the same subject is essential for understanding. Often a moderator is responsible for defining when a new block begins so that the task of automatically partitioning a moderated debate can focus solely on the moderator's behavior. In this paper, we (i) propose a new algorithm, DEBACER, which partitions moderated debates; (ii) carry out a comparative study between conventional and BERTimbau pipelines; and (iii) validate DEBACER applying it to the minutes of the Assembly of the Republic of Portugal. Our results show the effectiveness of DEBACER. Keywords: Natural Language Processing, Political Documents, Spoken Text Processing, Speech Split, Dialogue Partitioning.
User Factor Adaptation for User Embedding via Multitask Learning
Language varies across users and their interested fields in social media data: words authored by a user across his/her interests may have different meanings (e.g., cool) or sentiments (e.g., fast). However, most of the existing methods to train user embeddings ignore the variations across user interests, such as product and movie categories (e.g., drama vs. action). In this study, we treat the user interest as domains and empirically examine how the user language can vary across the user factor in three English social media datasets. We then propose a user embedding model to account for the language variability of user interests via a multitask learning framework. The model learns user language and its variations without human supervision. While existing work mainly evaluated the user embedding by extrinsic tasks, we propose an intrinsic evaluation via clustering and evaluate user embeddings by an extrinsic task, text classification. The experiments on the three English-language social media datasets show that our proposed approach can generally outperform baselines via adapting the user factor.
The LLM Effect: Are Humans Truly Using LLMs, or Are They Being Influenced By Them Instead?
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown capabilities close to human performance in various analytical tasks, leading researchers to use them for time and labor-intensive analyses. However, their capability to handle highly specialized and open-ended tasks in domains like policy studies remains in question. This paper investigates the efficiency and accuracy of LLMs in specialized tasks through a structured user study focusing on Human-LLM partnership. The study, conducted in two stages-Topic Discovery and Topic Assignment-integrates LLMs with expert annotators to observe the impact of LLM suggestions on what is usually human-only analysis. Results indicate that LLM-generated topic lists have significant overlap with human generated topic lists, with minor hiccups in missing document-specific topics. However, LLM suggestions may significantly improve task completion speed, but at the same time introduce anchoring bias, potentially affecting the depth and nuance of the analysis, raising a critical question about the trade-off between increased efficiency and the risk of biased analysis.
Between welcome culture and border fence. A dataset on the European refugee crisis in German newspaper reports
Newspaper reports provide a rich source of information on the unfolding of public debate on specific policy fields that can serve as basis for inquiry in political science. Such debates are often triggered by critical events, which attract public attention and incite the reactions of political actors: crisis sparks the debate. However, due to the challenges of reliable annotation and modeling, few large-scale datasets with high-quality annotation are available. This paper introduces DebateNet2.0, which traces the political discourse on the European refugee crisis in the German quality newspaper taz during the year 2015. The core units of our annotation are political claims (requests for specific actions to be taken within the policy field) and the actors who make them (politicians, parties, etc.). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we document and release DebateNet2.0 along with its companion R package, mardyR, guiding the reader through the practical and conceptual issues related to the annotation of policy debates in newspapers. Second, we outline and apply a Discourse Network Analysis (DNA) to DebateNet2.0, comparing two crucial moments of the policy debate on the 'refugee crisis': the migration flux through the Mediterranean in April/May and the one along the Balkan route in September/October. Besides the released resources and the case-study, our contribution is also methodological: we talk the reader through the steps from a newspaper article to a discourse network, demonstrating that there is not just one discourse network for the German migration debate, but multiple ones, depending on the topic of interest (political actors, policy fields, time spans).
Tweet Insights: A Visualization Platform to Extract Temporal Insights from Twitter
This paper introduces a large collection of time series data derived from Twitter, postprocessed using word embedding techniques, as well as specialized fine-tuned language models. This data comprises the past five years and captures changes in n-gram frequency, similarity, sentiment and topic distribution. The interface built on top of this data enables temporal analysis for detecting and characterizing shifts in meaning, including complementary information to trending metrics, such as sentiment and topic association over time. We release an online demo for easy experimentation, and we share code and the underlying aggregated data for future work. In this paper, we also discuss three case studies unlocked thanks to our platform, showcasing its potential for temporal linguistic analysis.
Heaps' law and Heaps functions in tagged texts: Evidences of their linguistic relevance
We study the relationship between vocabulary size and text length in a corpus of 75 literary works in English, authored by six writers, distinguishing between the contributions of three grammatical classes (or ``tags,'' namely, {\it nouns}, {\it verbs}, and {\it others}), and analyze the progressive appearance of new words of each tag along each individual text. While the power-law relation prescribed by Heaps' law is satisfactorily fulfilled by total vocabulary sizes and text lengths, the appearance of new words in each text is on the whole well described by the average of random shufflings of the text, which does not obey a power law. Deviations from this average, however, are statistically significant and show a systematic trend across the corpus. Specifically, they reveal that the appearance of new words along each text is predominantly retarded with respect to the average of random shufflings. Moreover, different tags are shown to add systematically distinct contributions to this tendency, with {\it verbs} and {\it others} being respectively more and less retarded than the mean trend, and {\it nouns} following instead this overall mean. These statistical systematicities are likely to point to the existence of linguistically relevant information stored in the different variants of Heaps' law, a feature that is still in need of extensive assessment.
LLM-RankFusion: Mitigating Intrinsic Inconsistency in LLM-based Ranking
Ranking passages by prompting a large language model (LLM) can achieve promising performance in modern information retrieval (IR) systems. A common approach is to sort the ranking list by prompting LLMs for pairwise comparison. However, sorting-based methods require consistent comparisons to correctly sort the passages, which we show that LLMs often violate. We identify two kinds of intrinsic inconsistency in LLM-based pairwise comparisons: order inconsistency which leads to conflicting results when switching the passage order, and transitive inconsistency which leads to non-transitive triads among all preference pairs. In this paper, we propose LLM-RankFusion, an LLM-based ranking framework that mitigates these inconsistencies and produces a robust ranking list. LLM-RankFusion mitigates order inconsistency using in-context learning (ICL) to demonstrate order-agnostic comparisons and calibration to estimate the underlying preference probability between two passages. We then address transitive inconsistency by aggregating the ranking results from multiple rankers. In our experiments, we empirically show that LLM-RankFusion can significantly reduce inconsistent pairwise comparison results, and improve the ranking quality by making the final ranking list more robust.
Q_{bias} -- A Dataset on Media Bias in Search Queries and Query Suggestions
This publication describes the motivation and generation of Q_{bias}, a large dataset of Google and Bing search queries, a scraping tool and dataset for biased news articles, as well as language models for the investigation of bias in online search. Web search engines are a major factor and trusted source in information search, especially in the political domain. However, biased information can influence opinion formation and lead to biased opinions. To interact with search engines, users formulate search queries and interact with search query suggestions provided by the search engines. A lack of datasets on search queries inhibits research on the subject. We use Q_{bias} to evaluate different approaches to fine-tuning transformer-based language models with the goal of producing models capable of biasing text with left and right political stance. Additionally to this work we provided datasets and language models for biasing texts that allow further research on bias in online information search.
From Skepticism to Acceptance: Simulating the Attitude Dynamics Toward Fake News
In the digital era, the rapid propagation of fake news and rumors via social networks brings notable societal challenges and impacts public opinion regulation. Traditional fake news modeling typically forecasts the general popularity trends of different groups or numerically represents opinions shift. However, these methods often oversimplify real-world complexities and overlook the rich semantic information of news text. The advent of large language models (LLMs) provides the possibility of modeling subtle dynamics of opinion. Consequently, in this work, we introduce a Fake news Propagation Simulation framework (FPS) based on LLM, which studies the trends and control of fake news propagation in detail. Specifically, each agent in the simulation represents an individual with a distinct personality. They are equipped with both short-term and long-term memory, as well as a reflective mechanism to mimic human-like thinking. Every day, they engage in random opinion exchanges, reflect on their thinking, and update their opinions. Our simulation results uncover patterns in fake news propagation related to topic relevance, and individual traits, aligning with real-world observations. Additionally, we evaluate various intervention strategies and demonstrate that early and appropriately frequent interventions strike a balance between governance cost and effectiveness, offering valuable insights for practical applications. Our study underscores the significant utility and potential of LLMs in combating fake news.
Assisting in Writing Wikipedia-like Articles From Scratch with Large Language Models
We study how to apply large language models to write grounded and organized long-form articles from scratch, with comparable breadth and depth to Wikipedia pages. This underexplored problem poses new challenges at the pre-writing stage, including how to research the topic and prepare an outline prior to writing. We propose STORM, a writing system for the Synthesis of Topic Outlines through Retrieval and Multi-perspective Question Asking. STORM models the pre-writing stage by (1) discovering diverse perspectives in researching the given topic, (2) simulating conversations where writers carrying different perspectives pose questions to a topic expert grounded on trusted Internet sources, (3) curating the collected information to create an outline. For evaluation, we curate FreshWiki, a dataset of recent high-quality Wikipedia articles, and formulate outline assessments to evaluate the pre-writing stage. We further gather feedback from experienced Wikipedia editors. Compared to articles generated by an outline-driven retrieval-augmented baseline, more of STORM's articles are deemed to be organized (by a 25% absolute increase) and broad in coverage (by 10%). The expert feedback also helps identify new challenges for generating grounded long articles, such as source bias transfer and over-association of unrelated facts.
Twitter Data Analysis: Izmir Earthquake Case
T\"urkiye is located on a fault line; earthquakes often occur on a large and small scale. There is a need for effective solutions for gathering current information during disasters. We can use social media to get insight into public opinion. This insight can be used in public relations and disaster management. In this study, Twitter posts on Izmir Earthquake that took place on October 2020 are analyzed. We question if this analysis can be used to make social inferences on time. Data mining and natural language processing (NLP) methods are used for this analysis. NLP is used for sentiment analysis and topic modelling. The latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm is used for topic modelling. We used the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model working with Transformers architecture for sentiment analysis. It is shown that the users shared their goodwill wishes and aimed to contribute to the initiated aid activities after the earthquake. The users desired to make their voices heard by competent institutions and organizations. The proposed methods work effectively. Future studies are also discussed.
Neural models for Factual Inconsistency Classification with Explanations
Factual consistency is one of the most important requirements when editing high quality documents. It is extremely important for automatic text generation systems like summarization, question answering, dialog modeling, and language modeling. Still, automated factual inconsistency detection is rather under-studied. Existing work has focused on (a) finding fake news keeping a knowledge base in context, or (b) detecting broad contradiction (as part of natural language inference literature). However, there has been no work on detecting and explaining types of factual inconsistencies in text, without any knowledge base in context. In this paper, we leverage existing work in linguistics to formally define five types of factual inconsistencies. Based on this categorization, we contribute a novel dataset, FICLE (Factual Inconsistency CLassification with Explanation), with ~8K samples where each sample consists of two sentences (claim and context) annotated with type and span of inconsistency. When the inconsistency relates to an entity type, it is labeled as well at two levels (coarse and fine-grained). Further, we leverage this dataset to train a pipeline of four neural models to predict inconsistency type with explanations, given a (claim, context) sentence pair. Explanations include inconsistent claim fact triple, inconsistent context span, inconsistent claim component, coarse and fine-grained inconsistent entity types. The proposed system first predicts inconsistent spans from claim and context; and then uses them to predict inconsistency types and inconsistent entity types (when inconsistency is due to entities). We experiment with multiple Transformer-based natural language classification as well as generative models, and find that DeBERTa performs the best. Our proposed methods provide a weighted F1 of ~87% for inconsistency type classification across the five classes.
A Drop of Ink Makes a Million Think: The Spread of False Information in Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) have gained increasing prominence in artificial intelligence, making a profound impact on society and various industries like business and science. However, the presence of false information on the internet and in text corpus poses a significant risk to the reliability and safety of LLMs, underscoring the urgent need to understand the mechanisms of how false information influences the behaviors of LLMs. In this paper, we dive into this problem and investigate how false information spreads in LLMs and affects related responses. Specifically, in our series of experiments, we investigate different factors that can influence the spread of information in LLMs by comparing three degrees of information relevance (direct, indirect, and peripheral), four information source styles (Twitter, web blogs, news reports, and research papers) and two common knowledge injection paradigms (in-context injection and learning-based injection). The experimental results show that (1)False information will spread and contaminate related memories in LLMs via a semantic diffusion process, i.e., false information has global detrimental effects beyond its direct impact. (2)Current LLMs are susceptible to authority bias, i.e., LLMs are more likely to follow false information presented in trustworthy styles such as news reports and research papers, which usually cause deeper and wider pollution of information. (3)Current LLMs are more sensitive to false information through in-context injection than through learning-based injection, which severely challenges the reliability and safety of LLMs even when all training data are trusty and correct. The above findings raise the need for new false information defense algorithms to address the global impact of false information, and new alignment algorithms to unbiasedly lead LLMs to follow essential human values rather than superficial patterns.
Fortunately, Discourse Markers Can Enhance Language Models for Sentiment Analysis
In recent years, pretrained language models have revolutionized the NLP world, while achieving state of the art performance in various downstream tasks. However, in many cases, these models do not perform well when labeled data is scarce and the model is expected to perform in the zero or few shot setting. Recently, several works have shown that continual pretraining or performing a second phase of pretraining (inter-training) which is better aligned with the downstream task, can lead to improved results, especially in the scarce data setting. Here, we propose to leverage sentiment-carrying discourse markers to generate large-scale weakly-labeled data, which in turn can be used to adapt language models for sentiment analysis. Extensive experimental results show the value of our approach on various benchmark datasets, including the finance domain. Code, models and data are available at https://github.com/ibm/tslm-discourse-markers.
Semantic Guidance Tuning for Text-To-Image Diffusion Models
Recent advancements in Text-to-Image (T2I) diffusion models have demonstrated impressive success in generating high-quality images with zero-shot generalization capabilities. Yet, current models struggle to closely adhere to prompt semantics, often misrepresenting or overlooking specific attributes. To address this, we propose a simple, training-free approach that modulates the guidance direction of diffusion models during inference. We first decompose the prompt semantics into a set of concepts, and monitor the guidance trajectory in relation to each concept. Our key observation is that deviations in model's adherence to prompt semantics are highly correlated with divergence of the guidance from one or more of these concepts. Based on this observation, we devise a technique to steer the guidance direction towards any concept from which the model diverges. Extensive experimentation validates that our method improves the semantic alignment of images generated by diffusion models in response to prompts. Project page is available at: https://korguy.github.io/
Co-Transport for Class-Incremental Learning
Traditional learning systems are trained in closed-world for a fixed number of classes, and need pre-collected datasets in advance. However, new classes often emerge in real-world applications and should be learned incrementally. For example, in electronic commerce, new types of products appear daily, and in a social media community, new topics emerge frequently. Under such circumstances, incremental models should learn several new classes at a time without forgetting. We find a strong correlation between old and new classes in incremental learning, which can be applied to relate and facilitate different learning stages mutually. As a result, we propose CO-transport for class Incremental Learning (COIL), which learns to relate across incremental tasks with the class-wise semantic relationship. In detail, co-transport has two aspects: prospective transport tries to augment the old classifier with optimal transported knowledge as fast model adaptation. Retrospective transport aims to transport new class classifiers backward as old ones to overcome forgetting. With these transports, COIL efficiently adapts to new tasks, and stably resists forgetting. Experiments on benchmark and real-world multimedia datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.
Delving into ChatGPT usage in academic writing through excess vocabulary
Recent large language models (LLMs) can generate and revise text with human-level performance, and have been widely commercialized in systems like ChatGPT. These models come with clear limitations: they can produce inaccurate information, reinforce existing biases, and be easily misused. Yet, many scientists have been using them to assist their scholarly writing. How wide-spread is LLM usage in the academic literature currently? To answer this question, we use an unbiased, large-scale approach, free from any assumptions on academic LLM usage. We study vocabulary changes in 14 million PubMed abstracts from 2010-2024, and show how the appearance of LLMs led to an abrupt increase in the frequency of certain style words. Our analysis based on excess words usage suggests that at least 10% of 2024 abstracts were processed with LLMs. This lower bound differed across disciplines, countries, and journals, and was as high as 30% for some PubMed sub-corpora. We show that the appearance of LLM-based writing assistants has had an unprecedented impact in the scientific literature, surpassing the effect of major world events such as the Covid pandemic.
Unsupervised Learning under Latent Label Shift
What sorts of structure might enable a learner to discover classes from unlabeled data? Traditional approaches rely on feature-space similarity and heroic assumptions on the data. In this paper, we introduce unsupervised learning under Latent Label Shift (LLS), where we have access to unlabeled data from multiple domains such that the label marginals p_d(y) can shift across domains but the class conditionals p(x|y) do not. This work instantiates a new principle for identifying classes: elements that shift together group together. For finite input spaces, we establish an isomorphism between LLS and topic modeling: inputs correspond to words, domains to documents, and labels to topics. Addressing continuous data, we prove that when each label's support contains a separable region, analogous to an anchor word, oracle access to p(d|x) suffices to identify p_d(y) and p_d(y|x) up to permutation. Thus motivated, we introduce a practical algorithm that leverages domain-discriminative models as follows: (i) push examples through domain discriminator p(d|x); (ii) discretize the data by clustering examples in p(d|x) space; (iii) perform non-negative matrix factorization on the discrete data; (iv) combine the recovered p(y|d) with the discriminator outputs p(d|x) to compute p_d(y|x) ; forall d. With semi-synthetic experiments, we show that our algorithm can leverage domain information to improve upon competitive unsupervised classification methods. We reveal a failure mode of standard unsupervised classification methods when feature-space similarity does not indicate true groupings, and show empirically that our method better handles this case. Our results establish a deep connection between distribution shift and topic modeling, opening promising lines for future work.
TACAM: Topic And Context Aware Argument Mining
In this work we address the problem of argument search. The purpose of argument search is the distillation of pro and contra arguments for requested topics from large text corpora. In previous works, the usual approach is to use a standard search engine to extract text parts which are relevant to the given topic and subsequently use an argument recognition algorithm to select arguments from them. The main challenge in the argument recognition task, which is also known as argument mining, is that often sentences containing arguments are structurally similar to purely informative sentences without any stance about the topic. In fact, they only differ semantically. Most approaches use topic or search term information only for the first search step and therefore assume that arguments can be classified independently of a topic. We argue that topic information is crucial for argument mining, since the topic defines the semantic context of an argument. Precisely, we propose different models for the classification of arguments, which take information about a topic of an argument into account. Moreover, to enrich the context of a topic and to let models understand the context of the potential argument better, we integrate information from different external sources such as Knowledge Graphs or pre-trained NLP models. Our evaluation shows that considering topic information, especially in connection with external information, provides a significant performance boost for the argument mining task.
Credit card fraud detection - Classifier selection strategy
Machine learning has opened up new tools for financial fraud detection. Using a sample of annotated transactions, a machine learning classification algorithm learns to detect frauds. With growing credit card transaction volumes and rising fraud percentages there is growing interest in finding appropriate machine learning classifiers for detection. However, fraud data sets are diverse and exhibit inconsistent characteristics. As a result, a model effective on a given data set is not guaranteed to perform on another. Further, the possibility of temporal drift in data patterns and characteristics over time is high. Additionally, fraud data has massive and varying imbalance. In this work, we evaluate sampling methods as a viable pre-processing mechanism to handle imbalance and propose a data-driven classifier selection strategy for characteristic highly imbalanced fraud detection data sets. The model derived based on our selection strategy surpasses peer models, whilst working in more realistic conditions, establishing the effectiveness of the strategy.
InfoCTM: A Mutual Information Maximization Perspective of Cross-Lingual Topic Modeling
Cross-lingual topic models have been prevalent for cross-lingual text analysis by revealing aligned latent topics. However, most existing methods suffer from producing repetitive topics that hinder further analysis and performance decline caused by low-coverage dictionaries. In this paper, we propose the Cross-lingual Topic Modeling with Mutual Information (InfoCTM). Instead of the direct alignment in previous work, we propose a topic alignment with mutual information method. This works as a regularization to properly align topics and prevent degenerate topic representations of words, which mitigates the repetitive topic issue. To address the low-coverage dictionary issue, we further propose a cross-lingual vocabulary linking method that finds more linked cross-lingual words for topic alignment beyond the translations of a given dictionary. Extensive experiments on English, Chinese, and Japanese datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, producing more coherent, diverse, and well-aligned topics and showing better transferability for cross-lingual classification tasks.
Using Zero-shot Prompting in the Automatic Creation and Expansion of Topic Taxonomies for Tagging Retail Banking Transactions
This work presents an unsupervised method for automatically constructing and expanding topic taxonomies by using instruction-based fine-tuned LLMs (Large Language Models). We apply topic modeling and keyword extraction techniques to create initial topic taxonomies and LLMs to post-process the resulting terms and create a hierarchy. To expand an existing taxonomy with new terms, we use zero-shot prompting to find out where to add new nodes, which, to our knowledge, is the first work to present such an approach to taxonomy tasks. We use the resulting taxonomies to assign tags that characterize merchants from a retail bank dataset. To evaluate our work, we asked 12 volunteers to answer a two-part form in which we first assessed the quality of the taxonomies created and then the tags assigned to merchants based on that taxonomy. The evaluation revealed a coherence rate exceeding 90% for the chosen taxonomies, while the average coherence for merchant tagging surpassed 80%.
vONTSS: vMF based semi-supervised neural topic modeling with optimal transport
Recently, Neural Topic Models (NTM), inspired by variational autoencoders, have attracted a lot of research interest; however, these methods have limited applications in the real world due to the challenge of incorporating human knowledge. This work presents a semi-supervised neural topic modeling method, vONTSS, which uses von Mises-Fisher (vMF) based variational autoencoders and optimal transport. When a few keywords per topic are provided, vONTSS in the semi-supervised setting generates potential topics and optimizes topic-keyword quality and topic classification. Experiments show that vONTSS outperforms existing semi-supervised topic modeling methods in classification accuracy and diversity. vONTSS also supports unsupervised topic modeling. Quantitative and qualitative experiments show that vONTSS in the unsupervised setting outperforms recent NTMs on multiple aspects: vONTSS discovers highly clustered and coherent topics on benchmark datasets. It is also much faster than the state-of-the-art weakly supervised text classification method while achieving similar classification performance. We further prove the equivalence of optimal transport loss and cross-entropy loss at the global minimum.
Should we trust web-scraped data?
The increasing adoption of econometric and machine-learning approaches by empirical researchers has led to a widespread use of one data collection method: web scraping. Web scraping refers to the use of automated computer programs to access websites and download their content. The key argument of this paper is that na\"ive web scraping procedures can lead to sampling bias in the collected data. This article describes three sources of sampling bias in web-scraped data. More specifically, sampling bias emerges from web content being volatile (i.e., being subject to change), personalized (i.e., presented in response to request characteristics), and unindexed (i.e., abundance of a population register). In a series of examples, I illustrate the prevalence and magnitude of sampling bias. To support researchers and reviewers, this paper provides recommendations on anticipating, detecting, and overcoming sampling bias in web-scraped data.
Exploring Public Attention in the Circular Economy through Topic Modelling with Twin Hyperparameter Optimisation
To advance the circular economy (CE), it is crucial to gain insights into the evolution of public attention, cognitive pathways of the masses concerning circular products, and to identify primary concerns. To achieve this, we collected data from diverse platforms, including Twitter, Reddit, and The Guardian, and utilised three topic models to analyse the data. Given the performance of topic modelling may vary depending on hyperparameter settings, this research proposed a novel framework that integrates twin (single and multi-objective) hyperparameter optimisation for the CE. We conducted systematic experiments to ensure that topic models are set with appropriate hyperparameters under different constraints, providing valuable insights into the correlations between CE and public attention. In summary, our optimised model reveals that public remains concerned about the economic impacts of sustainability and circular practices, particularly regarding recyclable materials and environmentally sustainable technologies. The analysis shows that the CE has attracted significant attention on The Guardian, especially in topics related to sustainable development and environmental protection technologies, while discussions are comparatively less active on Twitter. These insights highlight the need for policymakers to implement targeted education programs, create incentives for businesses to adopt CE principles, and enforce more stringent waste management policies alongside improved recycling processes.
BERTopic: Neural topic modeling with a class-based TF-IDF procedure
Topic models can be useful tools to discover latent topics in collections of documents. Recent studies have shown the feasibility of approach topic modeling as a clustering task. We present BERTopic, a topic model that extends this process by extracting coherent topic representation through the development of a class-based variation of TF-IDF. More specifically, BERTopic generates document embedding with pre-trained transformer-based language models, clusters these embeddings, and finally, generates topic representations with the class-based TF-IDF procedure. BERTopic generates coherent topics and remains competitive across a variety of benchmarks involving classical models and those that follow the more recent clustering approach of topic modeling.
`Keep it Together': Enforcing Cohesion in Extractive Summaries by Simulating Human Memory
Extractive summaries are usually presented as lists of sentences with no expected cohesion between them. In this paper, we aim to enforce cohesion whilst controlling for informativeness and redundancy in summaries, in cases where the input exhibits high redundancy. The pipeline controls for redundancy in long inputs as it is consumed, and balances informativeness and cohesion during sentence selection. Our sentence selector simulates human memory to keep track of topics --modeled as lexical chains--, enforcing cohesive ties between noun phrases. Across a variety of domains, our experiments revealed that it is possible to extract highly cohesive summaries that nevertheless read as informative to humans as summaries extracted by only accounting for informativeness or redundancy. The extracted summaries exhibit smooth topic transitions between sentences as signaled by lexical chains, with chains spanning adjacent or near-adjacent sentences.
Detecting Inappropriate Messages on Sensitive Topics that Could Harm a Company's Reputation
Not all topics are equally "flammable" in terms of toxicity: a calm discussion of turtles or fishing less often fuels inappropriate toxic dialogues than a discussion of politics or sexual minorities. We define a set of sensitive topics that can yield inappropriate and toxic messages and describe the methodology of collecting and labeling a dataset for appropriateness. While toxicity in user-generated data is well-studied, we aim at defining a more fine-grained notion of inappropriateness. The core of inappropriateness is that it can harm the reputation of a speaker. This is different from toxicity in two respects: (i) inappropriateness is topic-related, and (ii) inappropriate message is not toxic but still unacceptable. We collect and release two datasets for Russian: a topic-labeled dataset and an appropriateness-labeled dataset. We also release pre-trained classification models trained on this data.
Retrieval Helps or Hurts? A Deeper Dive into the Efficacy of Retrieval Augmentation to Language Models
While large language models (LMs) demonstrate remarkable performance, they encounter challenges in providing accurate responses when queried for information beyond their pre-trained memorization. Although augmenting them with relevant external information can mitigate these issues, failure to consider the necessity of retrieval may adversely affect overall performance. Previous research has primarily focused on examining how entities influence retrieval models and knowledge recall in LMs, leaving other aspects relatively unexplored. In this work, our goal is to offer a more detailed, fact-centric analysis by exploring the effects of combinations of entities and relations. To facilitate this, we construct a new question answering (QA) dataset called WiTQA (Wikipedia Triple Question Answers). This dataset includes questions about entities and relations of various popularity levels, each accompanied by a supporting passage. Our extensive experiments with diverse LMs and retrievers reveal when retrieval does not consistently enhance LMs from the viewpoints of fact-centric popularity.Confirming earlier findings, we observe that larger LMs excel in recalling popular facts. However, they notably encounter difficulty with infrequent entity-relation pairs compared to retrievers. Interestingly, they can effectively retain popular relations of less common entities. We demonstrate the efficacy of our finer-grained metric and insights through an adaptive retrieval system that selectively employs retrieval and recall based on the frequencies of entities and relations in the question.
Current Challenges and Future Directions in Podcast Information Access
Podcasts are spoken documents across a wide-range of genres and styles, with growing listenership across the world, and a rapidly lowering barrier to entry for both listeners and creators. The great strides in search and recommendation in research and industry have yet to see impact in the podcast space, where recommendations are still largely driven by word of mouth. In this perspective paper, we highlight the many differences between podcasts and other media, and discuss our perspective on challenges and future research directions in the domain of podcast information access.
Decay No More: A Persistent Twitter Dataset for Learning Social Meaning
With the proliferation of social media, many studies resort to social media to construct datasets for developing social meaning understanding systems. For the popular case of Twitter, most researchers distribute tweet IDs without the actual text contents due to the data distribution policy of the platform. One issue is that the posts become increasingly inaccessible over time, which leads to unfair comparisons and a temporal bias in social media research. To alleviate this challenge of data decay, we leverage a paraphrase model to propose a new persistent English Twitter dataset for social meaning (PTSM). PTSM consists of 17 social meaning datasets in 10 categories of tasks. We experiment with two SOTA pre-trained language models and show that our PTSM can substitute the actual tweets with paraphrases with marginal performance loss.
Optimal management of a stochastically varying population when policy adjustment is costly
Ecological systems are dynamic and policies to manage them need to respond to that variation. However, policy adjustments will sometimes be costly, which means that fine-tuning a policy to track variability in the environment very tightly will only sometimes be worthwhile. We use a classic fisheries management question -- how to manage a stochastically varying population using annually varying quotas in order to maximize profit -- to examine how costs of policy adjustment change optimal management recommendations. Costs of policy adjustment (here changes in fishing quotas through time) could take different forms. For example, these costs may respond to the size of the change being implemented, or there could be a fixed cost any time a quota change is made. We show how different forms of policy costs have contrasting implications for optimal policies. Though it is frequently assumed that costs to adjusting policies will dampen variation in the policy, we show that certain cost structures can actually increase variation through time. We further show that failing to account for adjustment costs has a consistently worse economic impact than would assuming these costs are present when they are not.
Tree-of-Debate: Multi-Persona Debate Trees Elicit Critical Thinking for Scientific Comparative Analysis
With the exponential growth of research facilitated by modern technology and improved accessibility, scientific discoveries have become increasingly fragmented within and across fields. This makes it challenging to assess the significance, novelty, incremental findings, and equivalent ideas between related works, particularly those from different research communities. Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong quantitative and qualitative reasoning abilities, and multi-agent LLM debates have shown promise in handling complex reasoning tasks by exploring diverse perspectives and reasoning paths. Inspired by this, we introduce Tree-of-Debate (ToD), a framework which converts scientific papers into LLM personas that debate their respective novelties. To emphasize structured, critical reasoning rather than focusing solely on outcomes, ToD dynamically constructs a debate tree, enabling fine-grained analysis of independent novelty arguments within scholarly articles. Through experiments on scientific literature across various domains, evaluated by expert researchers, we demonstrate that ToD generates informative arguments, effectively contrasts papers, and supports researchers in their literature review.
Mind the Gap Between Conversations for Improved Long-Term Dialogue Generation
Knowing how to end and resume conversations over time is a natural part of communication, allowing for discussions to span weeks, months, or years. The duration of gaps between conversations dictates which topics are relevant and which questions to ask, and dialogue systems which do not explicitly model time may generate responses that are unnatural. In this work we explore the idea of making dialogue models aware of time, and present GapChat, a multi-session dialogue dataset in which the time between each session varies. While the dataset is constructed in real-time, progress on events in speakers' lives is simulated in order to create realistic dialogues occurring across a long timespan. We expose time information to the model and compare different representations of time and event progress. In human evaluation we show that time-aware models perform better in metrics that judge the relevance of the chosen topics and the information gained from the conversation.
Time is Encoded in the Weights of Finetuned Language Models
We present time vectors, a simple tool to customize language models to new time periods. Time vectors are created by finetuning a language model on data from a single time (e.g., a year or month), and then subtracting the weights of the original pretrained model. This vector specifies a direction in weight space that, as our experiments show, improves performance on text from that time period. Time vectors specialized to adjacent time periods appear to be positioned closer together in a manifold. Using this structure, we interpolate between time vectors to induce new models that perform better on intervening and future time periods, without any additional training. We demonstrate the consistency of our findings across different tasks, domains, model sizes, and time scales. Our results suggest that time is encoded in the weight space of finetuned models.
Overview of the TREC 2022 NeuCLIR Track
This is the first year of the TREC Neural CLIR (NeuCLIR) track, which aims to study the impact of neural approaches to cross-language information retrieval. The main task in this year's track was ad hoc ranked retrieval of Chinese, Persian, or Russian newswire documents using queries expressed in English. Topics were developed using standard TREC processes, except that topics developed by an annotator for one language were assessed by a different annotator when evaluating that topic on a different language. There were 172 total runs submitted by twelve teams.
Proximity Ascertainment Bias in Early Covid Case Locations
A comparison of the distances to the Huanan Seafood Market of early Covid cases with known links to the market versus cases without known links shows results apparently incompatible with a location model lacking proximity ascertainment bias. The sign of the difference instead agrees with a model in which such ascertainment bias is large. In the presence of such bias inferences based on the clustering of case locations become unreliable.
Science and engineering for what? A large-scale analysis of students' projects in science fairs
Science and Engineering fairs offer K-12 students opportunities to engage with authentic STEM practices. Particularly, students are given the chance to experience authentic and open inquiry processes, by defining which themes, questions and approaches will guide their scientific endeavors. In this study, we analyzed data from over 5,000 projects presented at a nationwide science fair in Brazil over the past 20 years using topic modeling to identify the main topics that have driven students' inquiry and design. Our analysis identified a broad range of topics being explored, with significant variations over time, region, and school setting. We argue those results and proposed methodology can not only support further research in the context of science fairs, but also inform instruction and design of contexts-specific resources to support students in open inquiry experiences in different settings.
Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.
Understanding and Predicting Derailment in Toxic Conversations on GitHub
Software projects thrive on the involvement and contributions of individuals from different backgrounds. However, toxic language and negative interactions can hinder the participation and retention of contributors and alienate newcomers. Proactive moderation strategies aim to prevent toxicity from occurring by addressing conversations that have derailed from their intended purpose. This study aims to understand and predict conversational derailment leading to toxicity on GitHub. To facilitate this research, we curate a novel dataset comprising 202 toxic conversations from GitHub with annotated derailment points, along with 696 non-toxic conversations as a baseline. Based on this dataset, we identify unique characteristics of toxic conversations and derailment points, including linguistic markers such as second-person pronouns, negation terms, and tones of Bitter Frustration and Impatience, as well as patterns in conversational dynamics between project contributors and external participants. Leveraging these empirical observations, we propose a proactive moderation approach to automatically detect and address potentially harmful conversations before escalation. By utilizing modern LLMs, we develop a conversation trajectory summary technique that captures the evolution of discussions and identifies early signs of derailment. Our experiments demonstrate that LLM prompts tailored to provide summaries of GitHub conversations achieve 69% F1-Score in predicting conversational derailment, strongly improving over a set of baseline approaches.
GPT-Calls: Enhancing Call Segmentation and Tagging by Generating Synthetic Conversations via Large Language Models
Transcriptions of phone calls are of significant value across diverse fields, such as sales, customer service, healthcare, and law enforcement. Nevertheless, the analysis of these recorded conversations can be an arduous and time-intensive process, especially when dealing with extended or multifaceted dialogues. In this work, we propose a novel method, GPT-distilled Calls Segmentation and Tagging (GPT-Calls), for efficient and accurate call segmentation and topic extraction. GPT-Calls is composed of offline and online phases. The offline phase is applied once to a given list of topics and involves generating a distribution of synthetic sentences for each topic using a GPT model and extracting anchor vectors. The online phase is applied to every call separately and scores the similarity between the transcripted conversation and the topic anchors found in the offline phase. Then, time domain analysis is applied to the similarity scores to group utterances into segments and tag them with topics. The proposed paradigm provides an accurate and efficient method for call segmentation and topic extraction that does not require labeled data, thus making it a versatile approach applicable to various domains. Our algorithm operates in production under Dynamics 365 Sales Conversation Intelligence, and our research is based on real sales conversations gathered from various Dynamics 365 Sales tenants.
TofuEval: Evaluating Hallucinations of LLMs on Topic-Focused Dialogue Summarization
Single document news summarization has seen substantial progress on faithfulness in recent years, driven by research on the evaluation of factual consistency, or hallucinations. We ask whether these advances carry over to other text summarization domains. We propose a new evaluation benchmark on topic-focused dialogue summarization, generated by LLMs of varying sizes. We provide binary sentence-level human annotations of the factual consistency of these summaries along with detailed explanations of factually inconsistent sentences. Our analysis shows that existing LLMs hallucinate significant amounts of factual errors in the dialogue domain, regardless of the model's size. On the other hand, when LLMs, including GPT-4, serve as binary factual evaluators, they perform poorly and can be outperformed by prevailing state-of-the-art specialized factuality evaluation metrics. Finally, we conducted an analysis of hallucination types with a curated error taxonomy. We find that there are diverse errors and error distributions in model-generated summaries and that non-LLM based metrics can capture all error types better than LLM-based evaluators.
The Spotify Podcast Dataset
Podcasts are a relatively new form of audio media. Episodes appear on a regular cadence, and come in many different formats and levels of formality. They can be formal news journalism or conversational chat; fiction or non-fiction. They are rapidly growing in popularity and yet have been relatively little studied. As an audio format, podcasts are more varied in style and production types than, say, broadcast news, and contain many more genres than typically studied in video research. The medium is therefore a rich domain with many research avenues for the IR and NLP communities. We present the Spotify Podcast Dataset, a set of approximately 100K podcast episodes comprised of raw audio files along with accompanying ASR transcripts. This represents over 47,000 hours of transcribed audio, and is an order of magnitude larger than previous speech-to-text corpora.
Bilevel Scheduled Sampling for Dialogue Generation
Exposure bias poses a common challenge in numerous natural language processing tasks, particularly in the dialog generation. In response to this issue, researchers have devised various techniques, among which scheduled sampling has proven to be an effective method for mitigating exposure bias. However, the existing state-of-the-art scheduled sampling methods solely consider the current sampling words' quality for threshold truncation sampling, which overlooks the importance of sentence-level information and the method of threshold truncation warrants further discussion. In this paper, we propose a bilevel scheduled sampling model that takes the sentence-level information into account and incorporates it with word-level quality. To enhance sampling diversity and improve the model's adaptability, we propose a smooth function that maps the combined result of sentence-level and word-level information to an appropriate range, and employ probabilistic sampling based on the mapped values instead of threshold truncation. Experiments conducted on the DailyDialog and PersonaChat datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods, which significantly alleviate the exposure bias problem and outperform state-of-the-art scheduled sampling methods.
Surveying (Dis)Parities and Concerns of Compute Hungry NLP Research
Many recent improvements in NLP stem from the development and use of large pre-trained language models (PLMs) with billions of parameters. Large model sizes makes computational cost one of the main limiting factors for training and evaluating such models; and has raised severe concerns about the sustainability, reproducibility, and inclusiveness for researching PLMs. These concerns are often based on personal experiences and observations. However, there had not been any large-scale surveys that investigate them. In this work, we provide a first attempt to quantify these concerns regarding three topics, namely, environmental impact, equity, and impact on peer reviewing. By conducting a survey with 312 participants from the NLP community, we capture existing (dis)parities between different and within groups with respect to seniority, academia, and industry; and their impact on the peer reviewing process. For each topic, we provide an analysis and devise recommendations to mitigate found disparities, some of which already successfully implemented. Finally, we discuss additional concerns raised by many participants in free-text responses.
Demystifying Disagreement-on-the-Line in High Dimensions
Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.
Uncovering Agendas: A Novel French & English Dataset for Agenda Detection on Social Media
The behavior and decision making of groups or communities can be dramatically influenced by individuals pushing particular agendas, e.g., to promote or disparage a person or an activity, to call for action, etc.. In the examination of online influence campaigns, particularly those related to important political and social events, scholars often concentrate on identifying the sources responsible for setting and controlling the agenda (e.g., public media). In this article we present a methodology for detecting specific instances of agenda control through social media where annotated data is limited or non-existent. By using a modest corpus of Twitter messages centered on the 2022 French Presidential Elections, we carry out a comprehensive evaluation of various approaches and techniques that can be applied to this problem. Our findings demonstrate that by treating the task as a textual entailment problem, it is possible to overcome the requirement for a large annotated training dataset.
KL-Divergence Guided Temperature Sampling
Temperature sampling is a conventional approach to diversify large language model predictions. As temperature increases, the prediction becomes diverse but also vulnerable to hallucinations -- generating tokens that are sensible but not factual. One common approach to mitigate hallucinations is to provide source/grounding documents and the model is trained to produce predictions that bind to and are attributable to the provided source. It appears that there is a trade-off between diversity and attribution. To mitigate any such trade-off, we propose to relax the constraint of having a fixed temperature over decoding steps, and a mechanism to guide the dynamic temperature according to its relevance to the source through KL-divergence. Our experiments justifies the trade-off, and shows that our sampling algorithm outperforms the conventional top-k and top-p algorithms in conversational question-answering and summarization tasks.
Diffusion Guided Language Modeling
Current language models demonstrate remarkable proficiency in text generation. However, for many applications it is desirable to control attributes, such as sentiment, or toxicity, of the generated language -- ideally tailored towards each specific use case and target audience. For auto-regressive language models, existing guidance methods are prone to decoding errors that cascade during generation and degrade performance. In contrast, text diffusion models can easily be guided with, for example, a simple linear sentiment classifier -- however they do suffer from significantly higher perplexity than auto-regressive alternatives. In this paper we use a guided diffusion model to produce a latent proposal that steers an auto-regressive language model to generate text with desired properties. Our model inherits the unmatched fluency of the auto-regressive approach and the plug-and-play flexibility of diffusion. We show that it outperforms previous plug-and-play guidance methods across a wide range of benchmark data sets. Further, controlling a new attribute in our framework is reduced to training a single logistic regression classifier.
Towards Exploiting Background Knowledge for Building Conversation Systems
Existing dialog datasets contain a sequence of utterances and responses without any explicit background knowledge associated with them. This has resulted in the development of models which treat conversation as a sequence-to-sequence generation task i.e, given a sequence of utterances generate the response sequence). This is not only an overly simplistic view of conversation but it is also emphatically different from the way humans converse by heavily relying on their background knowledge about the topic (as opposed to simply relying on the previous sequence of utterances). For example, it is common for humans to (involuntarily) produce utterances which are copied or suitably modified from background articles they have read about the topic. To facilitate the development of such natural conversation models which mimic the human process of conversing, we create a new dataset containing movie chats wherein each response is explicitly generated by copying and/or modifying sentences from unstructured background knowledge such as plots, comments and reviews about the movie. We establish baseline results on this dataset (90K utterances from 9K conversations) using three different models: (i) pure generation based models which ignore the background knowledge (ii) generation based models which learn to copy information from the background knowledge when required and (iii) span prediction based models which predict the appropriate response span in the background knowledge.
Embedding And Clustering Your Data Can Improve Contrastive Pretraining
Recent studies of large-scale contrastive pretraining in the text embedding domain show that using single-source minibatches, rather than mixed-source minibatches, can substantially improve overall model accuracy. In this work, we explore extending training data stratification beyond source granularity by leveraging a pretrained text embedding model and the classic k-means clustering algorithm to further split training data apart by the semantic clusters within each source. Experimentally, we observe a notable increase in NDCG@10 when pretraining a BERT-based text embedding model on query-passage pairs from the MSMARCO passage retrieval dataset. Additionally, we conceptually connect our clustering approach to both the Topic Aware Sampling (TAS) aspect of the TAS-B methodology and the nearest-neighbor-based hard-negative mining aspect of the ANCE methodology and discuss how this unified view motivates future lines of research on the organization of contrastive pretraining data.
Kalman Filter for Online Classification of Non-Stationary Data
In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.
DELPHI: Data for Evaluating LLMs' Performance in Handling Controversial Issues
Controversy is a reflection of our zeitgeist, and an important aspect to any discourse. The rise of large language models (LLMs) as conversational systems has increased public reliance on these systems for answers to their various questions. Consequently, it is crucial to systematically examine how these models respond to questions that pertaining to ongoing debates. However, few such datasets exist in providing human-annotated labels reflecting the contemporary discussions. To foster research in this area, we propose a novel construction of a controversial questions dataset, expanding upon the publicly released Quora Question Pairs Dataset. This dataset presents challenges concerning knowledge recency, safety, fairness, and bias. We evaluate different LLMs using a subset of this dataset, illuminating how they handle controversial issues and the stances they adopt. This research ultimately contributes to our understanding of LLMs' interaction with controversial issues, paving the way for improvements in their comprehension and handling of complex societal debates.
Sampling the News Producers: A Large News and Feature Data Set for the Study of the Complex Media Landscape
The complexity and diversity of today's media landscape provides many challenges for researchers studying news producers. These producers use many different strategies to get their message believed by readers through the writing styles they employ, by repetition across different media sources with or without attribution, as well as other mechanisms that are yet to be studied deeply. To better facilitate systematic studies in this area, we present a large political news data set, containing over 136K news articles, from 92 news sources, collected over 7 months of 2017. These news sources are carefully chosen to include well-established and mainstream sources, maliciously fake sources, satire sources, and hyper-partisan political blogs. In addition to each article we compute 130 content-based and social media engagement features drawn from a wide range of literature on political bias, persuasion, and misinformation. With the release of the data set, we also provide the source code for feature computation. In this paper, we discuss the first release of the data set and demonstrate 4 use cases of the data and features: news characterization, engagement characterization, news attribution and content copying, and discovering news narratives.
How Easily do Irrelevant Inputs Skew the Responses of Large Language Models?
By leveraging the retrieval of information from external knowledge databases, Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit enhanced capabilities for accomplishing many knowledge-intensive tasks. However, due to the inherent flaws of current retrieval systems, there might exist irrelevant information within those retrieving top-ranked passages. In this work, we present a comprehensive investigation into the robustness of LLMs to different types of irrelevant information under various conditions. We initially introduce a framework to construct high-quality irrelevant information that ranges from semantically unrelated, partially related, and related to questions. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that the constructed irrelevant information not only scores highly on similarity metrics, being highly retrieved by existing systems, but also bears semantic connections to the context. Our investigation reveals that current LLMs still face challenges in discriminating highly semantically related information and can be easily distracted by these irrelevant yet misleading contents. Besides, we also find that current solutions for handling irrelevant information have limitations in improving the robustness of LLMs to such distractions. Resources are available at https://github.com/Di-viner/LLM-Robustness-to-Irrelevant-Information.
To Build Our Future, We Must Know Our Past: Contextualizing Paradigm Shifts in Natural Language Processing
NLP is in a period of disruptive change that is impacting our methodologies, funding sources, and public perception. In this work, we seek to understand how to shape our future by better understanding our past. We study factors that shape NLP as a field, including culture, incentives, and infrastructure by conducting long-form interviews with 26 NLP researchers of varying seniority, research area, institution, and social identity. Our interviewees identify cyclical patterns in the field, as well as new shifts without historical parallel, including changes in benchmark culture and software infrastructure. We complement this discussion with quantitative analysis of citation, authorship, and language use in the ACL Anthology over time. We conclude by discussing shared visions, concerns, and hopes for the future of NLP. We hope that this study of our field's past and present can prompt informed discussion of our community's implicit norms and more deliberate action to consciously shape the future.
Can LLMs Speak For Diverse People? Tuning LLMs via Debate to Generate Controllable Controversial Statements
Making LLMs speak for different, especially minority groups of people, and generate statements supporting their diverse or even controversial perspectives is critical to creating an inclusive environment. However, existing LLMs lack sufficient controllability to the stance of their generated content, which often contains inconsistent, neutral, or biased statements. In this paper, we improve the controllability of LLMs in generating statements supporting an argument the user defined in the prompt. We find that multi-round debates between two LLMs with opposite stances generate higher-quality and more salient statements for each, which are important training data to improve the controllability of LLMs. Motivated by this, we develop a novel debate & tuning (DEBATUNE) pipeline finetuning LLMs to generate the statements obtained via debate. To examine DEBATUNE, we curate the largest dataset of debate topics so far, which covers 710 controversial topics and corresponding arguments for each topic. Evaluations by the GPT-4 judge with a novel controversy controllability metric show that LLMs' capability of generating diverse perspectives is significantly improved by DEBATUNE. Moreover, such controllability can be generalized to unseen topics, generating high-quality statements supporting controversial arguments.
Fast and Accurate Factual Inconsistency Detection Over Long Documents
Generative AI models exhibit remarkable potential; however, hallucinations across various tasks present a significant challenge, particularly for longer inputs that current approaches struggle to address effectively. We introduce SCALE (Source Chunking Approach for Large-scale inconsistency Evaluation), a task-agnostic model for detecting factual inconsistencies using a novel chunking strategy. Specifically, SCALE is a Natural Language Inference (NLI) based model that uses large text chunks to condition over long texts. This approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in factual inconsistency detection for diverse tasks and long inputs. Additionally, we leverage the chunking mechanism and employ a novel algorithm to explain SCALE's decisions through relevant source sentence retrieval. Our evaluations reveal that SCALE outperforms existing methods on both standard benchmarks and a new long-form dialogue dataset ScreenEval we constructed. Moreover, SCALE surpasses competitive systems in efficiency and model explanation evaluations. We have released our code and data publicly to GitHub.
Hierarchical Multi-Interest Co-Network For Coarse-Grained Ranking
In this era of information explosion, a personalized recommendation system is convenient for users to get information they are interested in. To deal with billions of users and items, large-scale online recommendation services usually consist of three stages: candidate generation, coarse-grained ranking, and fine-grained ranking. The success of each stage depends on whether the model accurately captures the interests of users, which are usually hidden in users' behavior data. Previous research shows that users' interests are diverse, and one vector is not sufficient to capture users' different preferences. Therefore, many methods use multiple vectors to encode users' interests. However, there are two unsolved problems: (1) The similarity of different vectors in existing methods is too high, with too much redundant information. Consequently, the interests of users are not fully represented. (2) Existing methods model the long-term and short-term behaviors together, ignoring the differences between them. This paper proposes a Hierarchical Multi-Interest Co-Network (HCN) to capture users' diverse interests in the coarse-grained ranking stage. Specifically, we design a hierarchical multi-interest extraction layer to update users' diverse interest centers iteratively. The multiple embedded vectors obtained in this way contain more information and represent the interests of users better in various aspects. Furthermore, we develop a Co-Interest Network to integrate users' long-term and short-term interests. Experiments on several real-world datasets and one large-scale industrial dataset show that HCN effectively outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. We deploy HCN into a large-scale real world E-commerce system and achieve extra 2.5\% improvements on GMV (Gross Merchandise Value).
SPACE-IDEAS: A Dataset for Salient Information Detection in Space Innovation
Detecting salient parts in text using natural language processing has been widely used to mitigate the effects of information overflow. Nevertheless, most of the datasets available for this task are derived mainly from academic publications. We introduce SPACE-IDEAS, a dataset for salient information detection from innovation ideas related to the Space domain. The text in SPACE-IDEAS varies greatly and includes informal, technical, academic and business-oriented writing styles. In addition to a manually annotated dataset we release an extended version that is annotated using a large generative language model. We train different sentence and sequential sentence classifiers, and show that the automatically annotated dataset can be leveraged using multitask learning to train better classifiers.
A General Framework for Inference-time Scaling and Steering of Diffusion Models
Diffusion models produce impressive results in modalities ranging from images and video to protein design and text. However, generating samples with user-specified properties remains a challenge. Recent research proposes fine-tuning models to maximize rewards that capture desired properties, but these methods require expensive training and are prone to mode collapse. In this work, we propose Feynman Kac (FK) steering, an inference-time framework for steering diffusion models with reward functions. FK steering works by sampling a system of multiple interacting diffusion processes, called particles, and resampling particles at intermediate steps based on scores computed using functions called potentials. Potentials are defined using rewards for intermediate states and are selected such that a high value indicates that the particle will yield a high-reward sample. We explore various choices of potentials, intermediate rewards, and samplers. We evaluate FK steering on text-to-image and text diffusion models. For steering text-to-image models with a human preference reward, we find that FK steering a 0.8B parameter model outperforms a 2.6B parameter fine-tuned model on prompt fidelity, with faster sampling and no training. For steering text diffusion models with rewards for text quality and specific text attributes, we find that FK steering generates lower perplexity, more linguistically acceptable outputs and enables gradient-free control of attributes like toxicity. Our results demonstrate that inference-time scaling and steering of diffusion models, even with off-the-shelf rewards, can provide significant sample quality gains and controllability benefits. Code is available at https://github.com/zacharyhorvitz/Fk-Diffusion-Steering .
GPT Deciphering Fedspeak: Quantifying Dissent Among Hawks and Doves
Markets and policymakers around the world hang on the consequential monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Publicly available textual documentation of their meetings provides insight into members' attitudes about the economy. We use GPT-4 to quantify dissent among members on the topic of inflation. We find that transcripts and minutes reflect the diversity of member views about the macroeconomic outlook in a way that is lost or omitted from the public statements. In fact, diverging opinions that shed light upon the committee's "true" attitudes are almost entirely omitted from the final statements. Hence, we argue that forecasting FOMC sentiment based solely on statements will not sufficiently reflect dissent among the hawks and doves.
CommunityLM: Probing Partisan Worldviews from Language Models
As political attitudes have diverged ideologically in the United States, political speech has diverged lingusitically. The ever-widening polarization between the US political parties is accelerated by an erosion of mutual understanding between them. We aim to make these communities more comprehensible to each other with a framework that probes community-specific responses to the same survey questions using community language models CommunityLM. In our framework we identify committed partisan members for each community on Twitter and fine-tune LMs on the tweets authored by them. We then assess the worldviews of the two groups using prompt-based probing of their corresponding LMs, with prompts that elicit opinions about public figures and groups surveyed by the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2020 Exploratory Testing Survey. We compare the responses generated by the LMs to the ANES survey results, and find a level of alignment that greatly exceeds several baseline methods. Our work aims to show that we can use community LMs to query the worldview of any group of people given a sufficiently large sample of their social media discussions or media diet.
NaturalConv: A Chinese Dialogue Dataset Towards Multi-turn Topic-driven Conversation
In this paper, we propose a Chinese multi-turn topic-driven conversation dataset, NaturalConv, which allows the participants to chat anything they want as long as any element from the topic is mentioned and the topic shift is smooth. Our corpus contains 19.9K conversations from six domains, and 400K utterances with an average turn number of 20.1. These conversations contain in-depth discussions on related topics or widely natural transition between multiple topics. We believe either way is normal for human conversation. To facilitate the research on this corpus, we provide results of several benchmark models. Comparative results show that for this dataset, our current models are not able to provide significant improvement by introducing background knowledge/topic. Therefore, the proposed dataset should be a good benchmark for further research to evaluate the validity and naturalness of multi-turn conversation systems. Our dataset is available at https://ai.tencent.com/ailab/nlp/dialogue/#datasets.
Southern Newswire Corpus: A Large-Scale Dataset of Mid-Century Wire Articles Beyond the Front Page
I introduce a new large-scale dataset of historical wire articles from U.S. Southern newspapers, spanning 1960-1975 and covering multiple wire services: The Associated Press, United Press International, Newspaper Enterprise Association. Unlike prior work focusing on front-page content, this dataset captures articles across the entire newspaper, offering broader insight into mid-century Southern coverage. The dataset includes a version that has undergone an LLM-based text cleanup pipeline to reduce OCR noise, enhancing its suitability for quantitative text analysis. Additionally, duplicate versions of articles are retained to enable analysis of editorial differences in language and framing across newspapers. Each article is tagged by wire service, facilitating comparative studies of editorial patterns across agencies. This resource opens new avenues for research in computational social science, digital humanities, and historical linguistics, providing a detailed perspective on how Southern newspapers relayed national and international news during a transformative period in American history. The dataset will be made available upon publication or request for research purposes.
Backtracing: Retrieving the Cause of the Query
Many online content portals allow users to ask questions to supplement their understanding (e.g., of lectures). While information retrieval (IR) systems may provide answers for such user queries, they do not directly assist content creators -- such as lecturers who want to improve their content -- identify segments that _caused_ a user to ask those questions. We introduce the task of backtracing, in which systems retrieve the text segment that most likely caused a user query. We formalize three real-world domains for which backtracing is important in improving content delivery and communication: understanding the cause of (a) student confusion in the Lecture domain, (b) reader curiosity in the News Article domain, and (c) user emotion in the Conversation domain. We evaluate the zero-shot performance of popular information retrieval methods and language modeling methods, including bi-encoder, re-ranking and likelihood-based methods and ChatGPT. While traditional IR systems retrieve semantically relevant information (e.g., details on "projection matrices" for a query "does projecting multiple times still lead to the same point?"), they often miss the causally relevant context (e.g., the lecturer states "projecting twice gets me the same answer as one projection"). Our results show that there is room for improvement on backtracing and it requires new retrieval approaches. We hope our benchmark serves to improve future retrieval systems for backtracing, spawning systems that refine content generation and identify linguistic triggers influencing user queries. Our code and data are open-sourced: https://github.com/rosewang2008/backtracing.
Systematic Biases in LLM Simulations of Debates
Recent advancements in natural language processing, especially the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), have opened exciting possibilities for constructing computational simulations designed to replicate human behavior accurately. However, LLMs are complex statistical learners without straightforward deductive rules, making them prone to unexpected behaviors. In this study, we highlight the limitations of LLMs in simulating human interactions, particularly focusing on LLMs' ability to simulate political debates. Our findings indicate a tendency for LLM agents to conform to the model's inherent social biases despite being directed to debate from certain political perspectives. This tendency results in behavioral patterns that seem to deviate from well-established social dynamics among humans. We reinforce these observations using an automatic self-fine-tuning method, which enables us to manipulate the biases within the LLM and demonstrate that agents subsequently align with the altered biases. These results underscore the need for further research to develop methods that help agents overcome these biases, a critical step toward creating more realistic simulations.
Interpersonal Memory Matters: A New Task for Proactive Dialogue Utilizing Conversational History
Proactive dialogue systems aim to empower chatbots with the capability of leading conversations towards specific targets, thereby enhancing user engagement and service autonomy. Existing systems typically target pre-defined keywords or entities, neglecting user attributes and preferences implicit in dialogue history, hindering the development of long-term user intimacy. To address these challenges, we take a radical step towards building a more human-like conversational agent by integrating proactive dialogue systems with long-term memory into a unified framework. Specifically, we define a novel task named Memory-aware Proactive Dialogue (MapDia). By decomposing the task, we then propose an automatic data construction method and create the first Chinese Memory-aware Proactive Dataset (ChMapData). Furthermore, we introduce a joint framework based on Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), featuring three modules: Topic Summarization, Topic Retrieval, and Proactive Topic-shifting Detection and Generation, designed to steer dialogues towards relevant historical topics at the right time. The effectiveness of our dataset and models is validated through both automatic and human evaluations. We release the open-source framework and dataset at https://github.com/FrontierLabs/MapDia.
Scito2M: A 2 Million, 30-Year Cross-disciplinary Dataset for Temporal Scientometric Analysis
Understanding the creation, evolution, and dissemination of scientific knowledge is crucial for bridging diverse subject areas and addressing complex global challenges such as pandemics, climate change, and ethical AI. Scientometrics, the quantitative and qualitative study of scientific literature, provides valuable insights into these processes. We introduce Scito2M, a longitudinal scientometric dataset with over two million academic publications, providing comprehensive contents information and citation graphs to support cross-disciplinary analyses. Using Scito2M, we conduct a temporal study spanning over 30 years to explore key questions in scientometrics: the evolution of academic terminology, citation patterns, and interdisciplinary knowledge exchange. Our findings reveal critical insights, such as disparities in epistemic cultures, knowledge production modes, and citation practices. For example, rapidly developing, application-driven fields like LLMs exhibit significantly shorter citation age (2.48 years) compared to traditional theoretical disciplines like oral history (9.71 years).
Text Fact Transfer
Text style transfer is a prominent task that aims to control the style of text without inherently changing its factual content. To cover more text modification applications, such as adapting past news for current events and repurposing educational materials, we propose the task of text fact transfer, which seeks to transfer the factual content of a source text between topics without modifying its style. We find that existing language models struggle with text fact transfer, due to their inability to preserve the specificity and phrasing of the source text, and tendency to hallucinate errors. To address these issues, we design ModQGA, a framework that minimally modifies a source text with a novel combination of end-to-end question generation and specificity-aware question answering. Through experiments on four existing datasets adapted for text fact transfer, we show that ModQGA can accurately transfer factual content without sacrificing the style of the source text.
RePBubLik: Reducing the Polarized Bubble Radius with Link Insertions
The topology of the hyperlink graph among pages expressing different opinions may influence the exposure of readers to diverse content. Structural bias may trap a reader in a polarized bubble with no access to other opinions. We model readers' behavior as random walks. A node is in a polarized bubble if the expected length of a random walk from it to a page of different opinion is large. The structural bias of a graph is the sum of the radii of highly-polarized bubbles. We study the problem of decreasing the structural bias through edge insertions. Healing all nodes with high polarized bubble radius is hard to approximate within a logarithmic factor, so we focus on finding the best k edges to insert to maximally reduce the structural bias. We present RePBubLik, an algorithm that leverages a variant of the random walk closeness centrality to select the edges to insert. RePBubLik obtains, under mild conditions, a constant-factor approximation. It reduces the structural bias faster than existing edge-recommendation methods, including some designed to reduce the polarization of a graph.
The Earth is Flat because...: Investigating LLMs' Belief towards Misinformation via Persuasive Conversation
Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate vast amounts of knowledge but still remain vulnerable to external misinformation. Existing research mainly studied this susceptibility behavior in a single-turn setting. However, belief can change during a multi-turn conversation, especially a persuasive one. Therefore, in this study, we delve into LLMs' susceptibility to persuasive conversations, particularly on factual questions that they can answer correctly. We first curate the Farm (i.e., Fact to Misinform) dataset, which contains factual questions paired with systematically generated persuasive misinformation. Then, we develop a testing framework to track LLMs' belief changes in a persuasive dialogue. Through extensive experiments, we find that LLMs' correct beliefs on factual knowledge can be easily manipulated by various persuasive strategies.
Language Model Decoding as Direct Metrics Optimization
Despite the remarkable advances in language modeling, current mainstream decoding methods still struggle to generate texts that align with human texts across different aspects. In particular, sampling-based methods produce less-repetitive texts which are often disjunctive in discourse, while search-based methods maintain topic coherence at the cost of increased repetition. Overall, these methods fall short in achieving holistic alignment across a broad range of aspects. In this work, we frame decoding from a language model as an optimization problem with the goal of strictly matching the expected performance with human texts measured by multiple metrics of desired aspects simultaneously. The resulting decoding distribution enjoys an analytical solution that scales the input language model distribution via a sequence-level energy function defined by these metrics. And most importantly, we prove that this induced distribution is guaranteed to improve the perplexity on human texts, which suggests a better approximation to the underlying distribution of human texts. To facilitate tractable sampling from this globally normalized distribution, we adopt the Sampling-Importance-Resampling technique. Experiments on various domains and model scales demonstrate the superiority of our method in metrics alignment with human texts and human evaluation over strong baselines.
Understanding News Creation Intents: Frame, Dataset, and Method
As the disruptive changes in the media economy and the proliferation of alternative news media outlets, news intent has progressively deviated from ethical standards that serve the public interest. News intent refers to the purpose or intention behind the creation of a news article. While the significance of research on news intent has been widely acknowledged, the absence of a systematic news intent understanding framework hinders further exploration of news intent and its downstream applications. To bridge this gap, we propose News INTent (NINT) frame, the first component-aware formalism for understanding the news creation intent based on research in philosophy, psychology, and cognitive science. Within this frame, we define the news intent identification task and provide a benchmark dataset with fine-grained labels along with an efficient benchmark method. Experiments demonstrate that NINT is beneficial in both the intent identification task and downstream tasks that demand a profound understanding of news. This work marks a foundational step towards a more systematic exploration of news creation intents.
Learn over Past, Evolve for Future: Forecasting Temporal Trends for Fake News Detection
Fake news detection has been a critical task for maintaining the health of the online news ecosystem. However, very few existing works consider the temporal shift issue caused by the rapidly-evolving nature of news data in practice, resulting in significant performance degradation when training on past data and testing on future data. In this paper, we observe that the appearances of news events on the same topic may display discernible patterns over time, and posit that such patterns can assist in selecting training instances that could make the model adapt better to future data. Specifically, we design an effective framework FTT (Forecasting Temporal Trends), which could forecast the temporal distribution patterns of news data and then guide the detector to fast adapt to future distribution. Experiments on the real-world temporally split dataset demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework. The code is available at https://github.com/ICTMCG/FTT-ACL23.
Polling Latent Opinions: A Method for Computational Sociolinguistics Using Transformer Language Models
Text analysis of social media for sentiment, topic analysis, and other analysis depends initially on the selection of keywords and phrases that will be used to create the research corpora. However, keywords that researchers choose may occur infrequently, leading to errors that arise from using small samples. In this paper, we use the capacity for memorization, interpolation, and extrapolation of Transformer Language Models such as the GPT series to learn the linguistic behaviors of a subgroup within larger corpora of Yelp reviews. We then use prompt-based queries to generate synthetic text that can be analyzed to produce insights into specific opinions held by the populations that the models were trained on. Once learned, more specific sentiment queries can be made of the model with high levels of accuracy when compared to traditional keyword searches. We show that even in cases where a specific keyphrase is limited or not present at all in the training corpora, the GPT is able to accurately generate large volumes of text that have the correct sentiment.
Measuring Shifts in Attitudes Towards COVID-19 Measures in Belgium Using Multilingual BERT
We classify seven months' worth of Belgian COVID-related Tweets using multilingual BERT and relate them to their governments' COVID measures. We classify Tweets by their stated opinion on Belgian government curfew measures (too strict, ok, too loose). We examine the change in topics discussed and views expressed over time and in reference to dates of related events such as implementation of new measures or COVID-19 related announcements in the media.
To Revise or Not to Revise: Learning to Detect Improvable Claims for Argumentative Writing Support
Optimizing the phrasing of argumentative text is crucial in higher education and professional development. However, assessing whether and how the different claims in a text should be revised is a hard task, especially for novice writers. In this work, we explore the main challenges to identifying argumentative claims in need of specific revisions. By learning from collaborative editing behaviors in online debates, we seek to capture implicit revision patterns in order to develop approaches aimed at guiding writers in how to further improve their arguments. We systematically compare the ability of common word embedding models to capture the differences between different versions of the same text, and we analyze their impact on various types of writing issues. To deal with the noisy nature of revision-based corpora, we propose a new sampling strategy based on revision distance. Opposed to approaches from prior work, such sampling can be done without employing additional annotations and judgments. Moreover, we provide evidence that using contextual information and domain knowledge can further improve prediction results. How useful a certain type of context is, depends on the issue the claim is suffering from, though.
stream-learn -- open-source Python library for difficult data stream batch analysis
stream-learn is a Python package compatible with scikit-learn and developed for the drifting and imbalanced data stream analysis. Its main component is a stream generator, which allows to produce a synthetic data stream that may incorporate each of the three main concept drift types (i.e. sudden, gradual and incremental drift) in their recurring or non-recurring versions. The package allows conducting experiments following established evaluation methodologies (i.e. Test-Then-Train and Prequential). In addition, estimators adapted for data stream classification have been implemented, including both simple classifiers and state-of-art chunk-based and online classifier ensembles. To improve computational efficiency, package utilises its own implementations of prediction metrics for imbalanced binary classification tasks.
ClimaBench: A Benchmark Dataset For Climate Change Text Understanding in English
The topic of Climate Change (CC) has received limited attention in NLP despite its real world urgency. Activists and policy-makers need NLP tools in order to effectively process the vast and rapidly growing textual data produced on CC. Their utility, however, primarily depends on whether the current state-of-the-art models can generalize across various tasks in the CC domain. In order to address this gap, we introduce Climate Change Benchmark (ClimaBench), a benchmark collection of existing disparate datasets for evaluating model performance across a diverse set of CC NLU tasks systematically. Further, we enhance the benchmark by releasing two large-scale labelled text classification and question-answering datasets curated from publicly available environmental disclosures. Lastly, we provide an analysis of several generic and CC-oriented models answering whether fine-tuning on domain text offers any improvements across these tasks. We hope this work provides a standard assessment tool for research on CC text data.
Do LLMs Recognize Your Preferences? Evaluating Personalized Preference Following in LLMs
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as chatbots, yet their ability to personalize responses to user preferences remains limited. We introduce PrefEval, a benchmark for evaluating LLMs' ability to infer, memorize and adhere to user preferences in a long-context conversational setting. PrefEval comprises 3,000 manually curated user preference and query pairs spanning 20 topics. PrefEval contains user personalization or preference information in both explicit and implicit forms, and evaluates LLM performance using a generation and a classification task. With PrefEval, we evaluated the aforementioned preference following capabilities of 10 open-source and proprietary LLMs in multi-session conversations with varying context lengths up to 100k tokens. We benchmark with various prompting, iterative feedback, and retrieval-augmented generation methods. Our benchmarking effort reveals that state-of-the-art LLMs face significant challenges in proactively following users' preferences during conversations. In particular, in zero-shot settings, preference following accuracy falls below 10% at merely 10 turns (~3k tokens) across most evaluated models. Even with advanced prompting and retrieval methods, preference following still deteriorates in long-context conversations. Furthermore, we show that fine-tuning on PrefEval significantly improves performance. We believe PrefEval serves as a valuable resource for measuring, understanding, and enhancing LLMs' preference following abilities, paving the way for personalized conversational agents. Our code and dataset are available at https://prefeval.github.io/.
Volatility Modeling of Stocks from Selected Sectors of the Indian Economy Using GARCH
Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.
Mitigate Position Bias in Large Language Models via Scaling a Single Dimension
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied in various real-world scenarios due to their excellent generalization capabilities and robust generative abilities. However, they exhibit position bias, also known as "lost in the middle", a phenomenon that is especially pronounced in long-context scenarios, which indicates the placement of the key information in different positions of a prompt can significantly affect accuracy. This paper first explores the micro-level manifestations of position bias, concluding that attention weights are a micro-level expression of position bias. It further identifies that, in addition to position embeddings, causal attention mask also contributes to position bias by creating position-specific hidden states. Based on these insights, we propose a method to mitigate position bias by scaling this positional hidden states. Experiments on the NaturalQuestions Multi-document QA, KV retrieval, LongBench and timeline reorder tasks, using various models including RoPE models, context windowextended models, and Alibi models, demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of our approach. Our method can improve performance by up to 15.2% by modifying just one dimension of hidden states. Our code is available at https://aka.ms/PositionalHidden.
SubData: A Python Library to Collect and Combine Datasets for Evaluating LLM Alignment on Downstream Tasks
With the release of ever more capable large language models (LLMs), researchers in NLP and related disciplines have started to explore the usability of LLMs for a wide variety of different annotation tasks. Very recently, a lot of this attention has shifted to tasks that are subjective in nature. Given that the latest generations of LLMs have digested and encoded extensive knowledge about different human subpopulations and individuals, the hope is that these models can be trained, tuned or prompted to align with a wide range of different human perspectives. While researchers already evaluate the success of this alignment via surveys and tests, there is a lack of resources to evaluate the alignment on what oftentimes matters the most in NLP; the actual downstream tasks. To fill this gap we present SubData, a Python library that offers researchers working on topics related to subjectivity in annotation tasks a convenient way of collecting, combining and using a range of suitable datasets.
Know thy corpus! Robust methods for digital curation of Web corpora
This paper proposes a novel framework for digital curation of Web corpora in order to provide robust estimation of their parameters, such as their composition and the lexicon. In recent years language models pre-trained on large corpora emerged as clear winners in numerous NLP tasks, but no proper analysis of the corpora which led to their success has been conducted. The paper presents a procedure for robust frequency estimation, which helps in establishing the core lexicon for a given corpus, as well as a procedure for estimating the corpus composition via unsupervised topic models and via supervised genre classification of Web pages. The results of the digital curation study applied to several Web-derived corpora demonstrate their considerable differences. First, this concerns different frequency bursts which impact the core lexicon obtained from each corpus. Second, this concerns the kinds of texts they contain. For example, OpenWebText contains considerably more topical news and political argumentation in comparison to ukWac or Wikipedia. The tools and the results of analysis have been released.
First Tragedy, then Parse: History Repeats Itself in the New Era of Large Language Models
Many NLP researchers are experiencing an existential crisis triggered by the astonishing success of ChatGPT and other systems based on large language models (LLMs). After such a disruptive change to our understanding of the field, what is left to do? Taking a historical lens, we look for guidance from the first era of LLMs, which began in 2005 with large n-gram models for machine translation. We identify durable lessons from the first era, and more importantly, we identify evergreen problems where NLP researchers can continue to make meaningful contributions in areas where LLMs are ascendant. Among these lessons, we discuss the primacy of hardware advancement in shaping the availability and importance of scale, as well as the urgent challenge of quality evaluation, both automated and human. We argue that disparities in scale are transient and that researchers can work to reduce them; that data, rather than hardware, is still a bottleneck for many meaningful applications; that meaningful evaluation informed by actual use is still an open problem; and that there is still room for speculative approaches.
TREC CAsT 2019: The Conversational Assistance Track Overview
The Conversational Assistance Track (CAsT) is a new track for TREC 2019 to facilitate Conversational Information Seeking (CIS) research and to create a large-scale reusable test collection for conversational search systems. The document corpus is 38,426,252 passages from the TREC Complex Answer Retrieval (CAR) and Microsoft MAchine Reading COmprehension (MARCO) datasets. Eighty information seeking dialogues (30 train, 50 test) are an average of 9 to 10 questions long. Relevance assessments are provided for 30 training topics and 20 test topics. This year 21 groups submitted a total of 65 runs using varying methods for conversational query understanding and ranking. Methods include traditional retrieval based methods, feature based learning-to-rank, neural models, and knowledge enhanced methods. A common theme through the runs is the use of BERT-based neural reranking methods. Leading methods also employed document expansion, conversational query expansion, and generative language models for conversational query rewriting (GPT-2). The results show a gap between automatic systems and those using the manually resolved utterances, with a 35% relative improvement of manual rewrites over the best automatic system.
Found in the Middle: Calibrating Positional Attention Bias Improves Long Context Utilization
Large language models (LLMs), even when specifically trained to process long input contexts, struggle to capture relevant information located in the middle of their input. This phenomenon has been known as the lost-in-the-middle problem. In this work, we make three contributions. First, we set out to understand the factors that cause this phenomenon. In doing so, we establish a connection between lost-in-the-middle to LLMs' intrinsic attention bias: LLMs exhibit a U-shaped attention bias where the tokens at the beginning and at the end of its input receive higher attention, regardless of their relevance. Second, we mitigate this positional bias through a calibration mechanism, found-in-the-middle, that allows the model to attend to contexts faithfully according to their relevance, even though when they are in the middle. Third, we show found-in-the-middle not only achieves better performance in locating relevant information within a long context, but also eventually leads to improved retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) performance across various tasks, outperforming existing methods by up to 15 percentage points. These findings open up future directions in understanding LLM attention bias and its potential consequences.
Stress Testing Generalization: How Minor Modifications Undermine Large Language Model Performance
This paper investigates the fragility of Large Language Models (LLMs) in generalizing to novel inputs, specifically focusing on minor perturbations in well-established benchmarks (e.g., slight changes in question format or distractor length). Despite high benchmark scores, LLMs exhibit significant accuracy drops and unexpected biases (e.g., preference for longer distractors) when faced with these minor but content-preserving modifications. For example, Qwen 2.5 1.5B's MMLU score rises from 60 to 89 and drops from 89 to 36 when option lengths are changed without altering the question. Even GPT-4 experiences a 25-point accuracy loss when question types are changed, with a 6-point drop across all three modification categories. These analyses suggest that LLMs rely heavily on superficial cues rather than forming robust, abstract representations that generalize across formats, lexical variations, and irrelevant content shifts. This work aligns with the ACL 2025 theme track on the Generalization of NLP models, proposing a "Generalization Stress Test" to assess performance shifts under controlled perturbations. The study calls for reevaluating benchmarks and developing more reliable evaluation methodologies to capture LLM generalization abilities better.
Revisiting Entropy Rate Constancy in Text
The uniform information density (UID) hypothesis states that humans tend to distribute information roughly evenly across an utterance or discourse. Early evidence in support of the UID hypothesis came from Genzel & Charniak (2002), which proposed an entropy rate constancy principle based on the probability of English text under n-gram language models. We re-evaluate the claims of Genzel & Charniak (2002) with neural language models, failing to find clear evidence in support of entropy rate constancy. We conduct a range of experiments across datasets, model sizes, and languages and discuss implications for the uniform information density hypothesis and linguistic theories of efficient communication more broadly.
Unsupervised Dialogue Topic Segmentation with Topic-aware Utterance Representation
Dialogue Topic Segmentation (DTS) plays an essential role in a variety of dialogue modeling tasks. Previous DTS methods either focus on semantic similarity or dialogue coherence to assess topic similarity for unsupervised dialogue segmentation. However, the topic similarity cannot be fully identified via semantic similarity or dialogue coherence. In addition, the unlabeled dialogue data, which contains useful clues of utterance relationships, remains underexploited. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised DTS framework, which learns topic-aware utterance representations from unlabeled dialogue data through neighboring utterance matching and pseudo-segmentation. Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets (i.e., DialSeg711 and Doc2Dial) demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the strong baseline methods. For reproducibility, we provide our code and data at:https://github.com/AlibabaResearch/DAMO-ConvAI/tree/main/dial-start.
What are Public Concerns about ChatGPT? A Novel Self-Supervised Neural Topic Model Tells You
The recently released artificial intelligence conversational agent, ChatGPT, has gained significant attention in academia and real life. A multitude of early ChatGPT users eagerly explore its capabilities and share their opinions on it via social media. Both user queries and social media posts express public concerns regarding this advanced dialogue system. To mine public concerns about ChatGPT, a novel Self-Supervised neural Topic Model (SSTM), which formalizes topic modeling as a representation learning procedure, is proposed in this paper. Extensive experiments have been conducted on Twitter posts about ChatGPT and queries asked by ChatGPT users. And experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach could extract higher quality public concerns with improved interpretability and diversity, surpassing the performance of state-of-the-art approaches.
WikiHow: A Large Scale Text Summarization Dataset
Sequence-to-sequence models have recently gained the state of the art performance in summarization. However, not too many large-scale high-quality datasets are available and almost all the available ones are mainly news articles with specific writing style. Moreover, abstractive human-style systems involving description of the content at a deeper level require data with higher levels of abstraction. In this paper, we present WikiHow, a dataset of more than 230,000 article and summary pairs extracted and constructed from an online knowledge base written by different human authors. The articles span a wide range of topics and therefore represent high diversity styles. We evaluate the performance of the existing methods on WikiHow to present its challenges and set some baselines to further improve it.
Researching Alignment Research: Unsupervised Analysis
AI alignment research is the field of study dedicated to ensuring that artificial intelligence (AI) benefits humans. As machine intelligence gets more advanced, this research is becoming increasingly important. Researchers in the field share ideas across different media to speed up the exchange of information. However, this focus on speed means that the research landscape is opaque, making it difficult for young researchers to enter the field. In this project, we collected and analyzed existing AI alignment research. We found that the field is growing quickly, with several subfields emerging in parallel. We looked at the subfields and identified the prominent researchers, recurring topics, and different modes of communication in each. Furthermore, we found that a classifier trained on AI alignment research articles can detect relevant articles that we did not originally include in the dataset. We are sharing the dataset with the research community and hope to develop tools in the future that will help both established researchers and young researchers get more involved in the field.
A Massive Scale Semantic Similarity Dataset of Historical English
A diversity of tasks use language models trained on semantic similarity data. While there are a variety of datasets that capture semantic similarity, they are either constructed from modern web data or are relatively small datasets created in the past decade by human annotators. This study utilizes a novel source, newly digitized articles from off-copyright, local U.S. newspapers, to assemble a massive-scale semantic similarity dataset spanning 70 years from 1920 to 1989 and containing nearly 400M positive semantic similarity pairs. Historically, around half of articles in U.S. local newspapers came from newswires like the Associated Press. While local papers reproduced articles from the newswire, they wrote their own headlines, which form abstractive summaries of the associated articles. We associate articles and their headlines by exploiting document layouts and language understanding. We then use deep neural methods to detect which articles are from the same underlying source, in the presence of substantial noise and abridgement. The headlines of reproduced articles form positive semantic similarity pairs. The resulting publicly available HEADLINES dataset is significantly larger than most existing semantic similarity datasets and covers a much longer span of time. It will facilitate the application of contrastively trained semantic similarity models to a variety of tasks, including the study of semantic change across space and time.
Towards Better Text-to-Image Generation Alignment via Attention Modulation
In text-to-image generation tasks, the advancements of diffusion models have facilitated the fidelity of generated results. However, these models encounter challenges when processing text prompts containing multiple entities and attributes. The uneven distribution of attention results in the issues of entity leakage and attribute misalignment. Training from scratch to address this issue requires numerous labeled data and is resource-consuming. Motivated by this, we propose an attribution-focusing mechanism, a training-free phase-wise mechanism by modulation of attention for diffusion model. One of our core ideas is to guide the model to concentrate on the corresponding syntactic components of the prompt at distinct timesteps. To achieve this, we incorporate a temperature control mechanism within the early phases of the self-attention modules to mitigate entity leakage issues. An object-focused masking scheme and a phase-wise dynamic weight control mechanism are integrated into the cross-attention modules, enabling the model to discern the affiliation of semantic information between entities more effectively. The experimental results in various alignment scenarios demonstrate that our model attain better image-text alignment with minimal additional computational cost.
What Evidence Do Language Models Find Convincing?
Retrieval-augmented language models are being increasingly tasked with subjective, contentious, and conflicting queries such as "is aspartame linked to cancer". To resolve these ambiguous queries, one must search through a large range of websites and consider "which, if any, of this evidence do I find convincing?". In this work, we study how LLMs answer this question. In particular, we construct ConflictingQA, a dataset that pairs controversial queries with a series of real-world evidence documents that contain different facts (e.g., quantitative results), argument styles (e.g., appeals to authority), and answers (Yes or No). We use this dataset to perform sensitivity and counterfactual analyses to explore which text features most affect LLM predictions. Overall, we find that current models rely heavily on the relevance of a website to the query, while largely ignoring stylistic features that humans find important such as whether a text contains scientific references or is written with a neutral tone. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of RAG corpus quality (e.g., the need to filter misinformation), and possibly even a shift in how LLMs are trained to better align with human judgements.
When Crowd Meets Persona: Creating a Large-Scale Open-Domain Persona Dialogue Corpus
Building a natural language dataset requires caution since word semantics is vulnerable to subtle text change or the definition of the annotated concept. Such a tendency can be seen in generative tasks like question-answering and dialogue generation and also in tasks that create a categorization-based corpus, like topic classification or sentiment analysis. Open-domain conversations involve two or more crowdworkers freely conversing about any topic, and collecting such data is particularly difficult for two reasons: 1) the dataset should be ``crafted" rather than ``obtained" due to privacy concerns, and 2) paid creation of such dialogues may differ from how crowdworkers behave in real-world settings. In this study, we tackle these issues when creating a large-scale open-domain persona dialogue corpus, where persona implies that the conversation is performed by several actors with a fixed persona and user-side workers from an unspecified crowd.
Survey of Generative Methods for Social Media Analysis
This survey draws a broad-stroke, panoramic picture of the State of the Art (SoTA) of the research in generative methods for the analysis of social media data. It fills a void, as the existing survey articles are either much narrower in their scope or are dated. We included two important aspects that currently gain importance in mining and modeling social media: dynamics and networks. Social dynamics are important for understanding the spreading of influence or diseases, formation of friendships, the productivity of teams, etc. Networks, on the other hand, may capture various complex relationships providing additional insight and identifying important patterns that would otherwise go unnoticed.
Can Community Notes Replace Professional Fact-Checkers?
Two commonly-employed strategies to combat the rise of misinformation on social media are (i) fact-checking by professional organisations and (ii) community moderation by platform users. Policy changes by Twitter/X and, more recently, Meta, signal a shift away from partnerships with fact-checking organisations and towards an increased reliance on crowdsourced community notes. However, the extent and nature of dependencies between fact-checking and helpful community notes remain unclear. To address these questions, we use language models to annotate a large corpus of Twitter/X community notes with attributes such as topic, cited sources, and whether they refute claims tied to broader misinformation narratives. Our analysis reveals that community notes cite fact-checking sources up to five times more than previously reported. Fact-checking is especially crucial for notes on posts linked to broader narratives, which are twice as likely to reference fact-checking sources compared to other sources. In conclusion, our results show that successful community moderation heavily relies on professional fact-checking.
Open-World Evaluation for Retrieving Diverse Perspectives
We study retrieving a set of documents that covers various perspectives on a complex and contentious question (e.g., will ChatGPT do more harm than good?). We curate a Benchmark for Retrieval Diversity for Subjective questions (BERDS), where each example consists of a question and diverse perspectives associated with the question, sourced from survey questions and debate websites. On this data, retrievers paired with a corpus are evaluated to surface a document set that contains diverse perspectives. Our framing diverges from most retrieval tasks in that document relevancy cannot be decided by simple string matches to references. Instead, we build a language model based automatic evaluator that decides whether each retrieved document contains a perspective. This allows us to evaluate the performance of three different types of corpus (Wikipedia, web snapshot, and corpus constructed on the fly with retrieved pages from the search engine) paired with retrievers. Retrieving diverse documents remains challenging, with the outputs from existing retrievers covering all perspectives on only 33.74% of the examples. We further study the impact of query expansion and diversity-focused reranking approaches and analyze retriever sycophancy. Together, we lay the foundation for future studies in retrieval diversity handling complex queries.
NewsEdits: A News Article Revision Dataset and a Document-Level Reasoning Challenge
News article revision histories provide clues to narrative and factual evolution in news articles. To facilitate analysis of this evolution, we present the first publicly available dataset of news revision histories, NewsEdits. Our dataset is large-scale and multilingual; it contains 1.2 million articles with 4.6 million versions from over 22 English- and French-language newspaper sources based in three countries, spanning 15 years of coverage (2006-2021). We define article-level edit actions: Addition, Deletion, Edit and Refactor, and develop a high-accuracy extraction algorithm to identify these actions. To underscore the factual nature of many edit actions, we conduct analyses showing that added and deleted sentences are more likely to contain updating events, main content and quotes than unchanged sentences. Finally, to explore whether edit actions are predictable, we introduce three novel tasks aimed at predicting actions performed during version updates. We show that these tasks are possible for expert humans but are challenging for large NLP models. We hope this can spur research in narrative framing and help provide predictive tools for journalists chasing breaking news.