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Mar 14

Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

RAPHAEL: Text-to-Image Generation via Large Mixture of Diffusion Paths

Text-to-image generation has recently witnessed remarkable achievements. We introduce a text-conditional image diffusion model, termed RAPHAEL, to generate highly artistic images, which accurately portray the text prompts, encompassing multiple nouns, adjectives, and verbs. This is achieved by stacking tens of mixture-of-experts (MoEs) layers, i.e., space-MoE and time-MoE layers, enabling billions of diffusion paths (routes) from the network input to the output. Each path intuitively functions as a "painter" for depicting a particular textual concept onto a specified image region at a diffusion timestep. Comprehensive experiments reveal that RAPHAEL outperforms recent cutting-edge models, such as Stable Diffusion, ERNIE-ViLG 2.0, DeepFloyd, and DALL-E 2, in terms of both image quality and aesthetic appeal. Firstly, RAPHAEL exhibits superior performance in switching images across diverse styles, such as Japanese comics, realism, cyberpunk, and ink illustration. Secondly, a single model with three billion parameters, trained on 1,000 A100 GPUs for two months, achieves a state-of-the-art zero-shot FID score of 6.61 on the COCO dataset. Furthermore, RAPHAEL significantly surpasses its counterparts in human evaluation on the ViLG-300 benchmark. We believe that RAPHAEL holds the potential to propel the frontiers of image generation research in both academia and industry, paving the way for future breakthroughs in this rapidly evolving field. More details can be found on a project webpage: https://raphael-painter.github.io/.

Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Experts

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Alleviating Exposure Bias in Diffusion Models through Sampling with Shifted Time Steps

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPM) have shown remarkable efficacy in the synthesis of high-quality images. However, their inference process characteristically requires numerous, potentially hundreds, of iterative steps, which could exaggerate the problem of exposure bias due to the training and inference discrepancy. Previous work has attempted to mitigate this issue by perturbing inputs during training, which consequently mandates the retraining of the DPM. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of exposure bias in DPM and, intriguingly, we find that the exposure bias could be alleviated with a novel sampling method that we propose, without retraining the model. We empirically and theoretically show that, during inference, for each backward time step t and corresponding state x_t, there might exist another time step t_s which exhibits superior coupling with x_t. Based on this finding, we introduce a sampling method named Time-Shift Sampler. Our framework can be seamlessly integrated to existing sampling algorithms, such as DDPM, DDIM and other high-order solvers, inducing merely minimal additional computations. Experimental results show our method brings significant and consistent improvements in FID scores on different datasets and sampling methods. For example, integrating Time-Shift Sampler to F-PNDM yields a FID=3.88, achieving 44.49\% improvements as compared to F-PNDM, on CIFAR-10 with 10 sampling steps, which is more performant than the vanilla DDIM with 100 sampling steps. Our code is available at https://github.com/Mingxiao-Li/TS-DPM.

Edge-MoE: Memory-Efficient Multi-Task Vision Transformer Architecture with Task-level Sparsity via Mixture-of-Experts

Computer vision researchers are embracing two promising paradigms: Vision Transformers (ViTs) and Multi-task Learning (MTL), which both show great performance but are computation-intensive, given the quadratic complexity of self-attention in ViT and the need to activate an entire large MTL model for one task. M^3ViT is the latest multi-task ViT model that introduces mixture-of-experts (MoE), where only a small portion of subnetworks ("experts") are sparsely and dynamically activated based on the current task. M^3ViT achieves better accuracy and over 80% computation reduction but leaves challenges for efficient deployment on FPGA. Our work, dubbed Edge-MoE, solves the challenges to introduce the first end-to-end FPGA accelerator for multi-task ViT with a collection of architectural innovations, including (1) a novel reordering mechanism for self-attention, which requires only constant bandwidth regardless of the target parallelism; (2) a fast single-pass softmax approximation; (3) an accurate and low-cost GELU approximation; (4) a unified and flexible computing unit that is shared by almost all computational layers to maximally reduce resource usage; and (5) uniquely for M^3ViT, a novel patch reordering method to eliminate memory access overhead. Edge-MoE achieves 2.24x and 4.90x better energy efficiency comparing with GPU and CPU, respectively. A real-time video demonstration is available online, along with our open-source code written using High-Level Synthesis.

Scalable and Efficient MoE Training for Multitask Multilingual Models

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) models are an emerging class of sparsely activated deep learning models that have sublinear compute costs with respect to their parameters. In contrast with dense models, the sparse architecture of MoE offers opportunities for drastically growing model size with significant accuracy gain while consuming much lower compute budget. However, supporting large scale MoE training also has its own set of system and modeling challenges. To overcome the challenges and embrace the opportunities of MoE, we first develop a system capable of scaling MoE models efficiently to trillions of parameters. It combines multi-dimensional parallelism and heterogeneous memory technologies harmoniously with MoE to empower 8x larger models on the same hardware compared with existing work. Besides boosting system efficiency, we also present new training methods to improve MoE sample efficiency and leverage expert pruning strategy to improve inference time efficiency. By combining the efficient system and training methods, we are able to significantly scale up large multitask multilingual models for language generation which results in a great improvement in model accuracy. A model trained with 10 billion parameters on 50 languages can achieve state-of-the-art performance in Machine Translation (MT) and multilingual natural language generation tasks. The system support of efficient MoE training has been implemented and open-sourced with the DeepSpeed library.

Mixture of Tunable Experts -- Behavior Modification of DeepSeek-R1 at Inference Time

We present the Mixture-of-Tunable-Experts (MoTE), a method that extends the Mixture-of-Experts architecture of Large Language Models (LLMs). Without additional training, MoTE enables meaningful and focused behavior changes in LLMs on-the-fly during inference time. By analyzing the digital LLM brain of DeepSeek-R1 using a technique we dub 'functional Token Resonance Imaging' (fTRI) -- inspired by fMRI and using prompts designed to elicit specific behavior (e.g., 'What happened {time}{place}?') -- we empirically identify distinctive experts associated with behaviors like refusal responses. Using MoTE we are able to intervene and control such specific behavior. We switched off the top 10 most refusal-relevant experts (0.07% of R1's 14,848 routed experts), achieving a 52% refusal reduction on sensitive reference prompts without performance degradation on MT-Bench. Random expert deactivation resulted in smaller behavioral shifts with increased noise, whereas forced expert activation led to significantly higher refusal rates. Our approach shares similarities with sparse autoencoders (SAEs) in terms of explainability and steerability. Unlike SAEs, MoTE does not require large training efforts, as within MoEs with a vast number of experts, specialization already emerged naturally during pretraining. Our findings suggest that significant functional mechanisms in Mixture-of-Experts architectures can at least partially be localized in a small number of specific experts, rather than being distributed throughout the model's weights. Expert subgroups can be tuned to trigger significant behavior variations, providing insights into the inner workings of LLMs.

Surgical tool classification and localization: results and methods from the MICCAI 2022 SurgToolLoc challenge

The ability to automatically detect and track surgical instruments in endoscopic videos can enable transformational interventions. Assessing surgical performance and efficiency, identifying skilled tool use and choreography, and planning operational and logistical aspects of OR resources are just a few of the applications that could benefit. Unfortunately, obtaining the annotations needed to train machine learning models to identify and localize surgical tools is a difficult task. Annotating bounding boxes frame-by-frame is tedious and time-consuming, yet large amounts of data with a wide variety of surgical tools and surgeries must be captured for robust training. Moreover, ongoing annotator training is needed to stay up to date with surgical instrument innovation. In robotic-assisted surgery, however, potentially informative data like timestamps of instrument installation and removal can be programmatically harvested. The ability to rely on tool installation data alone would significantly reduce the workload to train robust tool-tracking models. With this motivation in mind we invited the surgical data science community to participate in the challenge, SurgToolLoc 2022. The goal was to leverage tool presence data as weak labels for machine learning models trained to detect tools and localize them in video frames with bounding boxes. We present the results of this challenge along with many of the team's efforts. We conclude by discussing these results in the broader context of machine learning and surgical data science. The training data used for this challenge consisting of 24,695 video clips with tool presence labels is also being released publicly and can be accessed at https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/isi-surgtoolloc-2022.

M2R2: Mixture of Multi-Rate Residuals for Efficient Transformer Inference

Residual transformations enhance the representational depth and expressive power of large language models (LLMs). However, applying static residual transformations across all tokens in auto-regressive generation leads to a suboptimal trade-off between inference efficiency and generation fidelity. Existing methods, including Early Exiting, Skip Decoding, and Mixture-of-Depth address this by modulating the residual transformation based on token-level complexity. Nevertheless, these approaches predominantly consider the distance traversed by tokens through the model layers, neglecting the underlying velocity of residual evolution. We introduce Mixture of Multi-rate Residuals (M2R2), a framework that dynamically modulates residual velocity to improve early alignment, enhancing inference efficiency. Evaluations on reasoning oriented tasks such as Koala, Self-Instruct, WizardLM, and MT-Bench show M2R2 surpasses state-of-the-art distance-based strategies, balancing generation quality and speedup. In self-speculative decoding setup, M2R2 achieves up to 2.8x speedups on MT-Bench, outperforming methods like 2-model speculative decoding, Medusa, LookAhead Decoding, and DEED. In Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, integrating early residual alignment with ahead-of-time expert loading into high-bandwidth memory (HBM) accelerates decoding, reduces expert-switching bottlenecks, and achieves a 2.9x speedup, making it highly effective in resource-constrained environments.

Meta-DMoE: Adapting to Domain Shift by Meta-Distillation from Mixture-of-Experts

In this paper, we tackle the problem of domain shift. Most existing methods perform training on multiple source domains using a single model, and the same trained model is used on all unseen target domains. Such solutions are sub-optimal as each target domain exhibits its own specialty, which is not adapted. Furthermore, expecting single-model training to learn extensive knowledge from multiple source domains is counterintuitive. The model is more biased toward learning only domain-invariant features and may result in negative knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose a novel framework for unsupervised test-time adaptation, which is formulated as a knowledge distillation process to address domain shift. Specifically, we incorporate Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) as teachers, where each expert is separately trained on different source domains to maximize their specialty. Given a test-time target domain, a small set of unlabeled data is sampled to query the knowledge from MoE. As the source domains are correlated to the target domains, a transformer-based aggregator then combines the domain knowledge by examining the interconnection among them. The output is treated as a supervision signal to adapt a student prediction network toward the target domain. We further employ meta-learning to enforce the aggregator to distill positive knowledge and the student network to achieve fast adaptation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art and validates the effectiveness of each proposed component. Our code is available at https://github.com/n3il666/Meta-DMoE.

Duplex: A Device for Large Language Models with Mixture of Experts, Grouped Query Attention, and Continuous Batching

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged due to their capability to generate high-quality content across diverse contexts. To reduce their explosively increasing demands for computing resources, a mixture of experts (MoE) has emerged. The MoE layer enables exploiting a huge number of parameters with less computation. Applying state-of-the-art continuous batching increases throughput; however, it leads to frequent DRAM access in the MoE and attention layers. We observe that conventional computing devices have limitations when processing the MoE and attention layers, which dominate the total execution time and exhibit low arithmetic intensity (Op/B). Processing MoE layers only with devices targeting low-Op/B such as processing-in-memory (PIM) architectures is challenging due to the fluctuating Op/B in the MoE layer caused by continuous batching. To address these challenges, we propose Duplex, which comprises xPU tailored for high-Op/B and Logic-PIM to effectively perform low-Op/B operation within a single device. Duplex selects the most suitable processor based on the Op/B of each layer within LLMs. As the Op/B of the MoE layer is at least 1 and that of the attention layer has a value of 4-8 for grouped query attention, prior PIM architectures are not efficient, which place processing units inside DRAM dies and only target extremely low-Op/B (under one) operations. Based on recent trends, Logic-PIM adds more through-silicon vias (TSVs) to enable high-bandwidth communication between the DRAM die and the logic die and place powerful processing units on the logic die, which is best suited for handling low-Op/B operations ranging from few to a few dozens. To maximally utilize the xPU and Logic-PIM, we propose expert and attention co-processing.

Scaling Diffusion Transformers to 16 Billion Parameters

In this paper, we present DiT-MoE, a sparse version of the diffusion Transformer, that is scalable and competitive with dense networks while exhibiting highly optimized inference. The DiT-MoE includes two simple designs: shared expert routing and expert-level balance loss, thereby capturing common knowledge and reducing redundancy among the different routed experts. When applied to conditional image generation, a deep analysis of experts specialization gains some interesting observations: (i) Expert selection shows preference with spatial position and denoising time step, while insensitive with different class-conditional information; (ii) As the MoE layers go deeper, the selection of experts gradually shifts from specific spacial position to dispersion and balance. (iii) Expert specialization tends to be more concentrated at the early time step and then gradually uniform after half. We attribute it to the diffusion process that first models the low-frequency spatial information and then high-frequency complex information. Based on the above guidance, a series of DiT-MoE experimentally achieves performance on par with dense networks yet requires much less computational load during inference. More encouragingly, we demonstrate the potential of DiT-MoE with synthesized image data, scaling diffusion model at a 16.5B parameter that attains a new SoTA FID-50K score of 1.80 in 512times512 resolution settings. The project page: https://github.com/feizc/DiT-MoE.