Daily Papers

How to learn discriminative video representation from unlabeled videos is challenging but crucial for video analysis. The latest attempts seek to learn a representation model by predicting the appearance contents in the masked regions. However, simply masking and recovering appearance contents may not be sufficient to model temporal clues as the appearance contents can be easily reconstructed from a single frame. To overcome this limitation, we present Masked Motion Encoding (MME), a new pre-training paradigm that reconstructs both appearance and motion information to explore temporal clues. In MME, we focus on addressing two critical challenges to improve the representation performance: 1) how to well represent the possible long-term motion across multiple frames; and 2) how to obtain fine-grained temporal clues from sparsely sampled videos. Motivated by the fact that human is able to recognize an action by tracking objects' position changes and shape changes, we propose to reconstruct a motion trajectory that represents these two kinds of change in the masked regions. Besides, given the sparse video input, we enforce the model to reconstruct dense motion trajectories in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Pre-trained with our MME paradigm, the model is able to anticipate long-term and fine-grained motion details. Code is available at https://github.com/XinyuSun/MME.

Multi-object tracking (MOT) at low frame rates can reduce computational, storage and power overhead to better meet the constraints of edge devices. Many existing MOT methods suffer from significant performance degradation in low-frame-rate videos due to significant location and appearance changes between adjacent frames. To this end, we propose to explore collaborative tracking learning (ColTrack) for frame-rate-insensitive MOT in a query-based end-to-end manner. Multiple historical queries of the same target jointly track it with richer temporal descriptions. Meanwhile, we insert an information refinement module between every two temporal blocking decoders to better fuse temporal clues and refine features. Moreover, a tracking object consistency loss is proposed to guide the interaction between historical queries. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that in high-frame-rate videos, ColTrack obtains higher performance than state-of-the-art methods on large-scale datasets Dancetrack and BDD100K, and outperforms the existing end-to-end methods on MOT17. More importantly, ColTrack has a significant advantage over state-of-the-art methods in low-frame-rate videos, which allows it to obtain faster processing speeds by reducing frame-rate requirements while maintaining higher performance. Code will be released at https://github.com/yolomax/ColTrack

Diffusion models have transformed the image-to-image (I2I) synthesis and are now permeating into videos. However, the advancement of video-to-video (V2V) synthesis has been hampered by the challenge of maintaining temporal consistency across video frames. This paper proposes a consistent V2V synthesis framework by jointly leveraging spatial conditions and temporal optical flow clues within the source video. Contrary to prior methods that strictly adhere to optical flow, our approach harnesses its benefits while handling the imperfection in flow estimation. We encode the optical flow via warping from the first frame and serve it as a supplementary reference in the diffusion model. This enables our model for video synthesis by editing the first frame with any prevalent I2I models and then propagating edits to successive frames. Our V2V model, FlowVid, demonstrates remarkable properties: (1) Flexibility: FlowVid works seamlessly with existing I2I models, facilitating various modifications, including stylization, object swaps, and local edits. (2) Efficiency: Generation of a 4-second video with 30 FPS and 512x512 resolution takes only 1.5 minutes, which is 3.1x, 7.2x, and 10.5x faster than CoDeF, Rerender, and TokenFlow, respectively. (3) High-quality: In user studies, our FlowVid is preferred 45.7% of the time, outperforming CoDeF (3.5%), Rerender (10.2%), and TokenFlow (40.4%).

Understanding time is crucial for understanding events expressed in natural language. Because people rarely say the obvious, it is often necessary to have commonsense knowledge about various temporal aspects of events, such as duration, frequency, and temporal order. However, this important problem has so far received limited attention. This paper systematically studies this temporal commonsense problem. Specifically, we define five classes of temporal commonsense, and use crowdsourcing to develop a new dataset, MCTACO, that serves as a test set for this task. We find that the best current methods used on MCTACO are still far behind human performance, by about 20%, and discuss several directions for improvement. We hope that the new dataset and our study here can foster more future research on this topic.

Temporal reasoning is a crucial NLP task, providing a nuanced understanding of time-sensitive contexts within textual data. Although recent advancements in LLMs have demonstrated their potential in temporal reasoning, the predominant focus has been on tasks such as temporal expression and temporal relation extraction. These tasks are primarily designed for the extraction of direct and past temporal cues and to engage in simple reasoning processes. A significant gap remains when considering complex reasoning tasks such as event forecasting, which requires multi-step temporal reasoning on events and prediction on the future timestamp. Another notable limitation of existing methods is their incapability to provide an illustration of their reasoning process, hindering explainability. In this paper, we introduce the first task of explainable temporal reasoning, to predict an event's occurrence at a future timestamp based on context which requires multiple reasoning over multiple events, and subsequently provide a clear explanation for their prediction. Our task offers a comprehensive evaluation of both the LLMs' complex temporal reasoning ability, the future event prediction ability, and explainability-a critical attribute for AI applications. To support this task, we present the first multi-source instruction-tuning dataset of explainable temporal reasoning (ExpTime) with 26k derived from the temporal knowledge graph datasets and their temporal reasoning paths, using a novel knowledge-graph-instructed-generation strategy. Based on the dataset, we propose the first open-source LLM series TimeLlaMA based on the foundation LlaMA2, with the ability of instruction following for explainable temporal reasoning. We compare the performance of our method and a variety of LLMs, where our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of temporal prediction and explanation.

Everyday conversations require understanding everyday events, which in turn, requires understanding temporal commonsense concepts interwoven with those events. Despite recent progress with massive pre-trained language models (LMs) such as T5 and GPT-3, their capability of temporal reasoning in dialogs remains largely under-explored. In this paper, we present the first study to investigate pre-trained LMs for their temporal reasoning capabilities in dialogs by introducing a new task and a crowd-sourced English challenge set, TIMEDIAL. We formulate TIME-DIAL as a multiple-choice cloze task with over 1.1K carefully curated dialogs. Empirical results demonstrate that even the best performing models struggle on this task compared to humans, with 23 absolute points of gap in accuracy. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the models fail to reason about dialog context correctly; instead, they rely on shallow cues based on existing temporal patterns in context, motivating future research for modeling temporal concepts in text and robust contextual reasoning about them. The dataset is publicly available at: https://github.com/google-research-datasets/timedial.

We propose TRACIE, a novel temporal reasoning dataset that evaluates the degree to which systems understand implicit events -- events that are not mentioned explicitly in natural language text but can be inferred from it. This introduces a new challenge in temporal reasoning research, where prior work has focused on explicitly mentioned events. Human readers can infer implicit events via commonsense reasoning, resulting in a more comprehensive understanding of the situation and, consequently, better reasoning about time. We find, however, that state-of-the-art models struggle when predicting temporal relationships between implicit and explicit events. To address this, we propose a neuro-symbolic temporal reasoning model, SYMTIME, which exploits distant supervision signals from large-scale text and uses temporal rules to combine start times and durations to infer end times. SYMTIME outperforms strong baseline systems on TRACIE by 5%, and by 11% in a zero prior knowledge training setting. Our approach also generalizes to other temporal reasoning tasks, as evidenced by a gain of 1%-9% on MATRES, an explicit event benchmark.

Reasoning about time is of fundamental importance. Many facts are time-dependent. For example, athletes change teams from time to time, and different government officials are elected periodically. Previous time-dependent question answering (QA) datasets tend to be biased in either their coverage of time spans or question types. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive probing dataset \tempreason to evaluate the temporal reasoning capability of large language models. Our dataset includes questions of three temporal reasoning levels. In addition, we also propose a novel learning framework to improve the temporal reasoning capability of large language models, based on temporal span extraction and time-sensitive reinforcement learning. We conducted experiments in closed book QA, open book QA, and reasoning QA settings and demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and data are released on https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/TempReason.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted many aspects of our lives. However, assessing and ensuring their chronological knowledge remains challenging. Existing approaches fall short in addressing the accumulative nature of knowledge, often relying on a single time stamp. To overcome this, we introduce ChroKnowBench, a benchmark dataset designed to evaluate chronologically accumulated knowledge across three key aspects: multiple domains, time dependency, temporal state. Our benchmark distinguishes between knowledge that evolves (e.g., scientific discoveries, amended laws) and knowledge that remain constant (e.g., mathematical truths, commonsense facts). Building on this benchmark, we present ChroKnowledge (Chronological Categorization of Knowledge), a novel sampling-based framework for evaluating and updating LLMs' non-parametric chronological knowledge. Our evaluation shows: (1) The ability of eliciting temporal knowledge varies depending on the data format that model was trained on. (2) LLMs partially recall knowledge or show a cut-off at temporal boundaries rather than recalling all aspects of knowledge correctly. Thus, we apply our ChroKnowPrompt, an in-depth prompting to elicit chronological knowledge by traversing step-by-step through the surrounding time spans. We observe that our framework successfully updates the overall knowledge across the entire timeline in both the biomedical domain (+11.9%) and the general domain (+2.8%), demonstrating its effectiveness in refining temporal knowledge. This non-parametric approach also enables knowledge updates not only in open-source models but also in proprietary LLMs, ensuring comprehensive applicability across model types. We perform a comprehensive analysis based on temporal characteristics of ChroKnowPrompt and validate the potential of various models to elicit intrinsic temporal knowledge through our method.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in various NLP tasks, yet they still face significant challenges in reasoning and arithmetic. Temporal reasoning, a critical component of natural language understanding, has raised increasing research attention. However, comprehensive testing of Allen's interval relations (e.g., before, after, during) -- a fundamental framework for temporal relationships -- remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we present ChronoSense, a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs' temporal understanding. It includes 16 tasks, focusing on identifying the Allen relation between two temporal events and temporal arithmetic, using both abstract events and real-world data from Wikidata. We assess the performance of seven recent LLMs using this benchmark and the results indicate that models handle Allen relations, even symmetrical ones, quite differently. Moreover, the findings suggest that the models may rely on memorization to answer time-related questions. Overall, the models' low performance highlights the need for improved temporal understanding in LLMs and ChronoSense offers a robust framework for future research in this area. Our dataset and the source code are available at https://github.com/duyguislakoglu/chronosense.

This paper introduces UnSeenTimeQA, a novel time-sensitive question-answering (TSQA) benchmark that diverges from traditional TSQA benchmarks by avoiding factual and web-searchable queries. We present a series of time-sensitive event scenarios decoupled from real-world factual information. It requires large language models (LLMs) to engage in genuine temporal reasoning, disassociating from the knowledge acquired during the pre-training phase. Our evaluation of six open-source LLMs (ranging from 2B to 70B in size) and three closed-source LLMs reveal that the questions from the UnSeenTimeQA present substantial challenges. This indicates the models' difficulties in handling complex temporal reasoning scenarios. Additionally, we present several analyses shedding light on the models' performance in answering time-sensitive questions.

Recognizing the flow of time in a story is a crucial aspect of understanding it. Prior work related to time has primarily focused on identifying temporal expressions or relative sequencing of events, but here we propose computationally annotating each line of a book with wall clock times, even in the absence of explicit time-descriptive phrases. To do so, we construct a data set of hourly time phrases from 52,183 fictional books. We then construct a time-of-day classification model that achieves an average error of 2.27 hours. Furthermore, we show that by analyzing a book in whole using dynamic programming of breakpoints, we can roughly partition a book into segments that each correspond to a particular time-of-day. This approach improves upon baselines by over two hours. Finally, we apply our model to a corpus of literature categorized by different periods in history, to show interesting trends of hourly activity throughout the past. Among several observations we find that the fraction of events taking place past 10 P.M jumps past 1880 - coincident with the advent of the electric light bulb and city lights.

While the ability of language models to elicit facts has been widely investigated, how they handle temporally changing facts remains underexplored. We discover Temporal Heads, specific attention heads primarily responsible for processing temporal knowledge through circuit analysis. We confirm that these heads are present across multiple models, though their specific locations may vary, and their responses differ depending on the type of knowledge and its corresponding years. Disabling these heads degrades the model's ability to recall time-specific knowledge while maintaining its general capabilities without compromising time-invariant and question-answering performances. Moreover, the heads are activated not only numeric conditions ("In 2004") but also textual aliases ("In the year ..."), indicating that they encode a temporal dimension beyond simple numerical representation. Furthermore, we expand the potential of our findings by demonstrating how temporal knowledge can be edited by adjusting the values of these heads.

Time is an important dimension in our physical world. Lots of facts can evolve with respect to time. For example, the U.S. President might change every four years. Therefore, it is important to consider the time dimension and empower the existing QA models to reason over time. However, the existing QA datasets contain rather few time-sensitive questions, hence not suitable for diagnosing or benchmarking the model's temporal reasoning capability. In order to promote research in this direction, we propose to construct a time-sensitive QA dataset. The dataset is constructed by 1) mining time-evolving facts from WikiData and aligning them to their corresponding Wikipedia page, 2) employing crowd workers to verify and calibrate these noisy facts, 3) generating question-answer pairs based on the annotated time-sensitive facts. Our dataset poses challenges in the aspect of both temporal understanding and temporal reasoning. We evaluate different SoTA long-document QA systems like BigBird and FiD on our dataset. The best-performing model FiD can only achieve 46\% accuracy, still far behind the human performance of 87\%. We demonstrate that these models are still lacking the ability to perform consistent temporal reasoning. Therefore, we believe that our dataset could serve as a benchmark to develop NLP models more sensitive to temporal shifts. The dataset and code are released in~https://github.com/wenhuchen/Time-Sensitive-QA.

The facts and time in the document are intricately intertwined, making temporal reasoning over documents challenging. Previous work models time implicitly, making it difficult to handle such complex relationships. To address this issue, we propose MTGER, a novel Multi-view Temporal Graph Enhanced Temporal Reasoning framework for temporal reasoning over time-involved documents. Concretely, MTGER explicitly models the temporal relationships among facts by multi-view temporal graphs. On the one hand, the heterogeneous temporal graphs explicitly model the temporal and discourse relationships among facts; on the other hand, the multi-view mechanism captures both time-focused and fact-focused information, allowing the two views to complement each other through adaptive fusion. To further improve the implicit reasoning capability of the model, we design a self-supervised time-comparing objective. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the TimeQA and SituatedQA datasets. Furthermore, MTGER gives more consistent answers under question perturbations.

Temporal reasoning is a critical challenge in video-language understanding, as it requires models to align semantic concepts consistently across time. While existing large vision-language models (LVLMs) and large language models (LLMs) excel at static tasks, they struggle to capture dynamic interactions and temporal dependencies in video sequences. In this work, we propose Temporal Semantic Alignment via Dynamic Prompting (TSADP), a novel framework that enhances temporal reasoning capabilities through dynamic task-specific prompts and temporal contrastive learning. TSADP leverages a Dynamic Prompt Generator (DPG) to encode fine-grained temporal relationships and a Temporal Contrastive Loss (TCL) to align visual and textual embeddings across time. We evaluate our method on the VidSitu dataset, augmented with enriched temporal annotations, and demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art models in tasks such as Intra-Video Entity Association, Temporal Relationship Understanding, and Chronology Prediction. Human evaluations further confirm TSADP's ability to generate coherent and semantically accurate descriptions. Our analysis highlights the robustness, efficiency, and practical utility of TSADP, making it a step forward in the field of video-language understanding.

Video-language pre-trained models have shown remarkable success in guiding video question-answering (VideoQA) tasks. However, due to the length of video sequences, training large-scale video-based models incurs considerably higher costs than training image-based ones. This motivates us to leverage the knowledge from image-based pretraining, despite the obvious gaps between image and video domains. To bridge these gaps, in this paper, we propose Tem-Adapter, which enables the learning of temporal dynamics and complex semantics by a visual Temporal Aligner and a textual Semantic Aligner. Unlike conventional pretrained knowledge adaptation methods that only concentrate on the downstream task objective, the Temporal Aligner introduces an extra language-guided autoregressive task aimed at facilitating the learning of temporal dependencies, with the objective of predicting future states based on historical clues and language guidance that describes event progression. Besides, to reduce the semantic gap and adapt the textual representation for better event description, we introduce a Semantic Aligner that first designs a template to fuse question and answer pairs as event descriptions and then learns a Transformer decoder with the whole video sequence as guidance for refinement. We evaluate Tem-Adapter and different pre-train transferring methods on two VideoQA benchmarks, and the significant performance improvement demonstrates the effectiveness of our method.

Temporal reasoning is fundamental to human cognition and is crucial for various real-world applications. While recent advances in Large Language Models have demonstrated promising capabilities in temporal reasoning, existing benchmarks primarily rely on rule-based construction, lack contextual depth, and involve a limited range of temporal entities. To address these limitations, we introduce Chinese Time Reasoning (CTM), a benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs on temporal reasoning within the extensive scope of Chinese dynastic chronology. CTM emphasizes cross-entity relationships, pairwise temporal alignment, and contextualized and culturally-grounded reasoning, providing a comprehensive evaluation. Extensive experimental results reveal the challenges posed by CTM and highlight potential avenues for improvement.

The task of predicting time and location from images is challenging and requires complex human-like puzzle-solving ability over different clues. In this work, we formalize this ability into core skills and implement them using different modules in an expert pipeline called PuzzleGPT. PuzzleGPT consists of a perceiver to identify visual clues, a reasoner to deduce prediction candidates, a combiner to combinatorially combine information from different clues, a web retriever to get external knowledge if the task can't be solved locally, and a noise filter for robustness. This results in a zero-shot, interpretable, and robust approach that records state-of-the-art performance on two datasets -- TARA and WikiTilo. PuzzleGPT outperforms large VLMs such as BLIP-2, InstructBLIP, LLaVA, and even GPT-4V, as well as automatically generated reasoning pipelines like VisProg, by at least 32% and 38%, respectively. It even rivals or surpasses finetuned models.

Most knowledge graph completion (KGC) methods learn latent representations of entities and relations of a given graph by mapping them into a vector space. Although the majority of these methods focus on static knowledge graphs, a large number of publicly available KGs contain temporal information stating the time instant/period over which a certain fact has been true. Such graphs are often known as temporal knowledge graphs. Furthermore, knowledge graphs may also contain textual descriptions of entities and relations. Both temporal information and textual descriptions are not taken into account during representation learning by static KGC methods, and only structural information of the graph is leveraged. Recently, some studies have used temporal information to improve link prediction, yet they do not exploit textual descriptions and do not support inductive inference (prediction on entities that have not been seen in training). We propose a novel framework called TEMT that exploits the power of pre-trained language models (PLMs) for text-enhanced temporal knowledge graph completion. The knowledge stored in the parameters of a PLM allows TEMT to produce rich semantic representations of facts and to generalize on previously unseen entities. TEMT leverages textual and temporal information available in a KG, treats them separately, and fuses them to get plausibility scores of facts. Unlike previous approaches, TEMT effectively captures dependencies across different time points and enables predictions on unseen entities. To assess the performance of TEMT, we carried out several experiments including time interval prediction, both in transductive and inductive settings, and triple classification. The experimental results show that TEMT is competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Understanding time from visual representations is a fundamental cognitive skill, yet it remains a challenge for multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In this work, we investigate the capabilities of MLLMs in interpreting time and date through analogue clocks and yearly calendars. To facilitate this, we curated a structured dataset comprising two subsets: 1) ClockQA, which comprises various types of clock styles-standard, black-dial, no-second-hand, Roman numeral, and arrow-hand clocks-paired with time related questions; and 2) CalendarQA, which consists of yearly calendar images with questions ranging from commonly known dates (e.g., Christmas, New Year's Day) to computationally derived ones (e.g., the 100th or 153rd day of the year). We aim to analyse how MLLMs can perform visual recognition, numerical reasoning, and temporal inference when presented with time-related visual data. Our evaluations show that despite recent advancements, reliably understanding time remains a significant challenge for MLLMs.

Reasoning about time is essential for Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand the world. Previous works focus on solving specific tasks, primarily on time-sensitive question answering. While these methods have proven effective, they cannot generalize to a wider spectrum of temporal reasoning tasks. Therefore, we propose a crucial question: Can we build a universal framework to handle a variety of temporal reasoning tasks? To that end, we systematically study 38 temporal reasoning tasks. Based on the observation that 19 tasks are directly related to mathematics, we first leverage the available mathematical dataset to set a solid foundation for temporal reasoning. However, the in-depth study indicates that focusing solely on mathematical enhancement falls short of addressing pure temporal reasoning tasks. To mitigate this limitation, we propose a simple but effective self-critic temporal optimization method to enhance the model's temporal reasoning capabilities without sacrificing general task abilities. Finally, we develop Timo, a model designed to excel in temporal reasoning at the 7B and 13B scales. Notably, Timo outperforms the counterpart LLMs by 10.0 and 7.6 in average accuracy scores and achieves the new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance of comparable size. Extensive experiments further validate our framework's effectiveness and its generalization across diverse temporal tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/zhaochen0110/Timo.

We introduce VideoFlow, a novel optical flow estimation framework for videos. In contrast to previous methods that learn to estimate optical flow from two frames, VideoFlow concurrently estimates bi-directional optical flows for multiple frames that are available in videos by sufficiently exploiting temporal cues. We first propose a TRi-frame Optical Flow (TROF) module that estimates bi-directional optical flows for the center frame in a three-frame manner. The information of the frame triplet is iteratively fused onto the center frame. To extend TROF for handling more frames, we further propose a MOtion Propagation (MOP) module that bridges multiple TROFs and propagates motion features between adjacent TROFs. With the iterative flow estimation refinement, the information fused in individual TROFs can be propagated into the whole sequence via MOP. By effectively exploiting video information, VideoFlow presents extraordinary performance, ranking 1st on all public benchmarks. On the Sintel benchmark, VideoFlow achieves 1.649 and 0.991 average end-point-error (AEPE) on the final and clean passes, a 15.1% and 7.6% error reduction from the best-published results (1.943 and 1.073 from FlowFormer++). On the KITTI-2015 benchmark, VideoFlow achieves an F1-all error of 3.65%, a 19.2% error reduction from the best-published result (4.52% from FlowFormer++). Code is released at https://github.com/XiaoyuShi97/VideoFlow.

Who is the US President? The answer changes depending on when the question is asked. While large language models (LLMs) are evaluated on various reasoning tasks, they often miss a crucial dimension: time. In real-world scenarios, the correctness of answers is frequently tied to temporal context. In this paper, we introduce a novel dataset designed to rigorously test LLMs' ability to handle time-sensitive facts. Our benchmark offers a systematic way to measure how well LLMs align their knowledge with the correct time context, filling a key gap in current evaluation methods and offering a valuable tool for improving real-world applicability in future models.

We introduce UPose3D, a novel approach for multi-view 3D human pose estimation, addressing challenges in accuracy and scalability. Our method advances existing pose estimation frameworks by improving robustness and flexibility without requiring direct 3D annotations. At the core of our method, a pose compiler module refines predictions from a 2D keypoints estimator that operates on a single image by leveraging temporal and cross-view information. Our novel cross-view fusion strategy is scalable to any number of cameras, while our synthetic data generation strategy ensures generalization across diverse actors, scenes, and viewpoints. Finally, UPose3D leverages the prediction uncertainty of both the 2D keypoint estimator and the pose compiler module. This provides robustness to outliers and noisy data, resulting in state-of-the-art performance in out-of-distribution settings. In addition, for in-distribution settings, UPose3D yields performance rivalling methods that rely on 3D annotated data while being the state-of-the-art among methods relying only on 2D supervision.

Automated audio captioning aims at generating natural language descriptions for given audio clips, not only detecting and classifying sounds, but also summarizing the relationships between audio events. Recent research advances in audio captioning have introduced additional guidance to improve the accuracy of audio events in generated sentences. However, temporal relations between audio events have received little attention while revealing complex relations is a key component in summarizing audio content. Therefore, this paper aims to better capture temporal relationships in caption generation with sound event detection (SED), a task that locates events' timestamps. We investigate the best approach to integrate temporal information in a captioning model and propose a temporal tag system to transform the timestamps into comprehensible relations. Results evaluated by the proposed temporal metrics suggest that great improvement is achieved in terms of temporal relation generation.

The ability to perceive how objects change over time is a crucial ingredient in human intelligence. However, current benchmarks cannot faithfully reflect the temporal understanding abilities of video-language models (VidLMs) due to the existence of static visual shortcuts. To remedy this issue, we present VITATECS, a diagnostic VIdeo-Text dAtaset for the evaluation of TEmporal Concept underStanding. Specifically, we first introduce a fine-grained taxonomy of temporal concepts in natural language in order to diagnose the capability of VidLMs to comprehend different temporal aspects. Furthermore, to disentangle the correlation between static and temporal information, we generate counterfactual video descriptions that differ from the original one only in the specified temporal aspect. We employ a semi-automatic data collection framework using large language models and human-in-the-loop annotation to obtain high-quality counterfactual descriptions efficiently. Evaluation of representative video-language understanding models confirms their deficiency in temporal understanding, revealing the need for greater emphasis on the temporal elements in video-language research.

Temporal Knowledge Graph Question Answering (TKGQA) aims to answer questions with temporal intent over Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs). The core challenge of this task lies in understanding the complex semantic information regarding multiple types of time constraints (e.g., before, first) in questions. Existing end-to-end methods implicitly model the time constraints by learning time-aware embeddings of questions and candidate answers, which is far from understanding the question comprehensively. Motivated by semantic-parsing-based approaches that explicitly model constraints in questions by generating logical forms with symbolic operators, we design fundamental temporal operators for time constraints and introduce a novel self-improvement Programming method for TKGQA (Prog-TQA). Specifically, Prog-TQA leverages the in-context learning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand the combinatory time constraints in the questions and generate corresponding program drafts with a few examples given. Then, it aligns these drafts to TKGs with the linking module and subsequently executes them to generate the answers. To enhance the ability to understand questions, Prog-TQA is further equipped with a self-improvement strategy to effectively bootstrap LLMs using high-quality self-generated drafts. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed Prog-TQA on MultiTQ and CronQuestions datasets, especially in the Hits@1 metric.

Constructing a timeline requires identifying the chronological order of events in an article. In prior timeline construction datasets, temporal orders are typically annotated by either event-to-time anchoring or event-to-event pairwise ordering, both of which suffer from missing temporal information. To mitigate the issue, we develop a new evaluation dataset, TimeSET, consisting of single-document timelines with document-level order annotation. TimeSET features saliency-based event selection and partial ordering, which enable a practical annotation workload. Aiming to build better automatic timeline construction systems, we propose a novel evaluation framework to compare multiple task formulations with TimeSET by prompting open LLMs, i.e., Llama 2 and Flan-T5. Considering that identifying temporal orders of events is a core subtask in timeline construction, we further benchmark open LLMs on existing event temporal ordering datasets to gain a robust understanding of their capabilities. Our experiments show that (1) NLI formulation with Flan-T5 demonstrates a strong performance among others, while (2) timeline construction and event temporal ordering are still challenging tasks for few-shot LLMs. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/kimihiroh/timeset.

This paper introduces DateLogicQA, a benchmark with 190 questions covering diverse date formats, temporal contexts, and reasoning types. We propose the Semantic Integrity Metric to assess tokenization quality and analyse two biases: Representation-Level Bias, affecting embeddings, and Logical-Level Bias, influencing reasoning outputs. Our findings provide a comprehensive evaluation of LLMs' capabilities and limitations in temporal reasoning, highlighting key challenges in handling temporal data accurately. The GitHub repository for our work is available at https://github.com/gagan3012/EAIS-Temporal-Bias

Large language models (LLMs) learn temporal concepts from the co-occurrence of related tokens in a sequence. Compared with conventional text generation, temporal reasoning, which reaches a conclusion based on mathematical, logical and commonsense knowledge, is more challenging. In this paper, we propose TempGraph-LLM, a new paradigm towards text-based temporal reasoning. To be specific, we first teach LLMs to translate the context into a temporal graph. A synthetic dataset, which is fully controllable and requires minimal supervision, is constructed for pre-training on this task. We prove in experiments that LLMs benefit from the pre-training on other tasks. On top of that, we guide LLMs to perform symbolic reasoning with the strategies of Chain of Thoughts (CoTs) bootstrapping and special data augmentation. We observe that CoTs with symbolic reasoning bring more consistent and reliable results than those using free text.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly becoming ubiquitous, yet their ability to reason about and retain temporal information remains limited. This hinders their application in real-world scenarios where understanding the sequential nature of events is crucial. This paper experiments with state-of-the-art models on a novel, large-scale temporal dataset, TempUN, to reveal significant limitations in temporal retention and reasoning abilities. Interestingly, closed-source models indicate knowledge gaps more frequently, potentially suggesting a trade-off between uncertainty awareness and incorrect responses. Further, exploring various fine-tuning approaches yielded no major performance improvements. The associated dataset and code are available at the following URL (https://github.com/lingoiitgn/TempUN).

Temporal graphs are widely used to model dynamic systems with time-varying interactions. In real-world scenarios, the underlying mechanisms of generating future interactions in dynamic systems are typically governed by a set of recurring substructures within the graph, known as temporal motifs. Despite the success and prevalence of current temporal graph neural networks (TGNN), it remains uncertain which temporal motifs are recognized as the significant indications that trigger a certain prediction from the model, which is a critical challenge for advancing the explainability and trustworthiness of current TGNNs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, called Temporal Motifs Explainer (TempME), which uncovers the most pivotal temporal motifs guiding the prediction of TGNNs. Derived from the information bottleneck principle, TempME extracts the most interaction-related motifs while minimizing the amount of contained information to preserve the sparsity and succinctness of the explanation. Events in the explanations generated by TempME are verified to be more spatiotemporally correlated than those of existing approaches, providing more understandable insights. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of TempME, with up to 8.21% increase in terms of explanation accuracy across six real-world datasets and up to 22.96% increase in boosting the prediction Average Precision of current TGNNs.

Understanding temporal dynamics is critical for conversational agents, enabling effective content analysis and informed decision-making. However, time-aware datasets, particularly for persona-grounded conversations, are still limited, which narrows their scope and diminishes their complexity. To address this gap, we introduce MTPChat, a multimodal, time-aware persona dialogue dataset that integrates linguistic, visual, and temporal elements within dialogue and persona memory. Leveraging MTPChat, we propose two time-sensitive tasks: Temporal Next Response Prediction (TNRP) and Temporal Grounding Memory Prediction (TGMP), both designed to assess a model's ability to understand implicit temporal cues and dynamic interactions. Additionally, we present an innovative framework featuring an adaptive temporal module to effectively integrate multimodal streams and capture temporal dependencies. Experimental results validate the challenges posed by MTPChat and demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in multimodal time-sensitive scenarios.

Multi-hop logical reasoning over knowledge graph (KG) plays a fundamental role in many artificial intelligence tasks. Recent complex query embedding (CQE) methods for reasoning focus on static KGs, while temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) have not been fully explored. Reasoning over TKGs has two challenges: 1. The query should answer entities or timestamps; 2. The operators should consider both set logic on entity set and temporal logic on timestamp set. To bridge this gap, we define the multi-hop logical reasoning problem on TKGs. With generated three datasets, we propose the first temporal CQE named Temporal Feature-Logic Embedding framework (TFLEX) to answer the temporal complex queries. We utilize vector logic to compute the logic part of Temporal Feature-Logic embeddings, thus naturally modeling all First-Order Logic (FOL) operations on entity set. In addition, our framework extends vector logic on timestamp set to cope with three extra temporal operators (After, Before and Between). Experiments on numerous query patterns demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

This paper introduces a large collection of time series data derived from Twitter, postprocessed using word embedding techniques, as well as specialized fine-tuned language models. This data comprises the past five years and captures changes in n-gram frequency, similarity, sentiment and topic distribution. The interface built on top of this data enables temporal analysis for detecting and characterizing shifts in meaning, including complementary information to trending metrics, such as sentiment and topic association over time. We release an online demo for easy experimentation, and we share code and the underlying aggregated data for future work. In this paper, we also discuss three case studies unlocked thanks to our platform, showcasing its potential for temporal linguistic analysis.

There has been tremendous progress in multimodal Large Language Models (LLMs). Recent works have extended these models to video input with promising instruction following capabilities. However, an important missing piece is temporal localization. These models cannot accurately answer the "When?" questions. We identify three key aspects that limit their temporal localization capabilities: (i) time representation, (ii) architecture, and (iii) data. We address these shortcomings by proposing Language Instructed Temporal-Localization Assistant (LITA) with the following features: (1) We introduce time tokens that encode timestamps relative to the video length to better represent time in videos. (2) We introduce SlowFast tokens in the architecture to capture temporal information at fine temporal resolution. (3) We emphasize temporal localization data for LITA. In addition to leveraging existing video datasets with timestamps, we propose a new task, Reasoning Temporal Localization (RTL), along with the dataset, ActivityNet-RTL, for learning and evaluating this task. Reasoning temporal localization requires both the reasoning and temporal localization of Video LLMs. LITA demonstrates strong performance on this challenging task, nearly doubling the temporal mean intersection-over-union (mIoU) of baselines. In addition, we show that our emphasis on temporal localization also substantially improves video-based text generation compared to existing Video LLMs, including a 36% relative improvement of Temporal Understanding. Code is available at: https://github.com/NVlabs/LITA

We present time vectors, a simple tool to customize language models to new time periods. Time vectors are created by finetuning a language model on data from a single time (e.g., a year or month), and then subtracting the weights of the original pretrained model. This vector specifies a direction in weight space that, as our experiments show, improves performance on text from that time period. Time vectors specialized to adjacent time periods appear to be positioned closer together in a manifold. Using this structure, we interpolate between time vectors to induce new models that perform better on intervening and future time periods, without any additional training. We demonstrate the consistency of our findings across different tasks, domains, model sizes, and time scales. Our results suggest that time is encoded in the weight space of finetuned models.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Retrieving temporal event sequences from textual descriptions is essential for applications such as analyzing e-commerce behavior, monitoring social media activities, and tracking criminal incidents. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM-Embedding, a unified model for efficiently embedding and retrieving event sequences based on natural language descriptions. Built on the TPP-LLM framework, which integrates large language models with temporal point processes, our model encodes both event types and times, generating a sequence-level representation through pooling. Textual descriptions are embedded using the same architecture, ensuring a shared embedding space for both sequences and descriptions. We optimize a contrastive loss based on similarity between these embeddings, bringing matching pairs closer and separating non-matching ones. TPP-LLM-Embedding enables efficient retrieval and demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline models across diverse datasets.

Are Large language models (LLMs) temporally grounded? Since LLMs cannot perceive and interact with the environment, it is impossible to answer this question directly. Instead, we provide LLMs with textual narratives and probe them with respect to their common-sense knowledge of the structure and duration of events, their ability to order events along a timeline, and self-consistency within their temporal model (e.g., temporal relations such as after and before are mutually exclusive for any pair of events). We evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (such as LLaMA 2 and GPT-4) on three tasks reflecting these abilities. Generally, we find that LLMs lag significantly behind both human performance as well as small-scale, specialised LMs. In-context learning, instruction tuning, and chain-of-thought prompting reduce this gap only to a limited degree. Crucially, LLMs struggle the most with self-consistency, displaying incoherent behaviour in at least 27.23% of their predictions. Contrary to expectations, we also find that scaling the model size does not guarantee positive gains in performance. To explain these results, we study the sources from which LLMs may gather temporal information: we find that sentence ordering in unlabelled texts, available during pre-training, is only weakly correlated with event ordering. Moreover, public instruction tuning mixtures contain few temporal tasks. Hence, we conclude that current LLMs lack a consistent temporal model of textual narratives. Code, datasets, and LLM outputs are available at https://github.com/yfqiu-nlp/temporal-llms.

What makes a video task uniquely suited for videos, beyond what can be understood from a single image? Building on recent progress in self-supervised image-language models, we revisit this question in the context of video and language tasks. We propose the atemporal probe (ATP), a new model for video-language analysis which provides a stronger bound on the baseline accuracy of multimodal models constrained by image-level understanding. By applying this model to standard discriminative video and language tasks, such as video question answering and text-to-video retrieval, we characterize the limitations and potential of current video-language benchmarks. We find that understanding of event temporality is often not necessary to achieve strong or state-of-the-art performance, even compared with recent large-scale video-language models and in contexts intended to benchmark deeper video-level understanding. We also demonstrate how ATP can improve both video-language dataset and model design. We describe a technique for leveraging ATP to better disentangle dataset subsets with a higher concentration of temporally challenging data, improving benchmarking efficacy for causal and temporal understanding. Further, we show that effectively integrating ATP into full video-level temporal models can improve efficiency and state-of-the-art accuracy.

Precise geocoding and time normalization for text requires that location and time phrases be identified. Many state-of-the-art geoparsers and temporal parsers suffer from low recall. Categories commonly missed by parsers are: nouns used in a non- spatiotemporal sense, adjectival and adverbial phrases, prepositional phrases, and numerical phrases. We collected and annotated data set by querying commercial web searches API with such spatiotemporal expressions as were missed by state-of-the- art parsers. Due to the high cost of sentence annotation, active learning was used to label training data, and a new strategy was designed to better select training examples to reduce labeling cost. For the learning algorithm, we applied an average perceptron trained Featurized Hidden Markov Model (FHMM). Five FHMM instances were used to create an ensemble, with the output phrase selected by voting. Our ensemble model was tested on a range of sequential labeling tasks, and has shown competitive performance. Our contributions include (1) an new dataset annotated with named entities and expanded spatiotemporal expressions; (2) a comparison of inference algorithms for ensemble models showing the superior accuracy of Belief Propagation over Viterbi Decoding; (3) a new example re-weighting method for active ensemble learning that 'memorizes' the latest examples trained; (4) a spatiotemporal parser that jointly recognizes expanded spatiotemporal expressions as well as named entities.

Crossword puzzles are popular linguistic games often used as tools to engage students in learning. Educational crosswords are characterized by less cryptic and more factual clues that distinguish them from traditional crossword puzzles. Despite there exist several publicly available clue-answer pair databases for traditional crosswords, educational clue-answer pairs datasets are missing. In this article, we propose a methodology to build educational clue generation datasets that can be used to instruct Large Language Models (LLMs). By gathering from Wikipedia pages informative content associated with relevant keywords, we use Large Language Models to automatically generate pedagogical clues related to the given input keyword and its context. With such an approach, we created clue-instruct, a dataset containing 44,075 unique examples with text-keyword pairs associated with three distinct crossword clues. We used clue-instruct to instruct different LLMs to generate educational clues from a given input content and keyword. Both human and automatic evaluations confirmed the quality of the generated clues, thus validating the effectiveness of our approach.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved significant advancements in tasks like Visual Question Answering (VQA) by leveraging foundational Large Language Models (LLMs). However, their abilities in specific areas such as temporal understanding, which is crucial for comprehending real-world dynamics, remain underexplored. To address this, we propose a challenging evaluation benchmark named TemporalVQA, consisting of two parts: (1) Temporal Order Understanding and (2) Time-lapse Estimation. The first part requires MLLMs to determine the sequence of events by analyzing temporally consecutive video frames. The second part presents image pairs with varying time differences, framed as multiple-choice questions, asking MLLMs to estimate the time-lapse between images with options ranging from seconds to years. Our evaluations of advanced MLLMs, including models like GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5-Pro, reveal significant challenges: GPT-4o achieved only 43.8% average consistent accuracy in temporal order tasks and 70% in time-lapse estimation, with open-source models performing even less effectively. These findings underscore the limitations of current MLLMs in visual temporal understanding and reasoning, highlighting the need for further improvements in their temporal capabilities. Our dataset can be found at https://huggingface.co/datasets/fazliimam/temporal-vqa.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have been widely used for event sequence modeling, but they often struggle to incorporate rich textual event descriptions effectively. Conversely, while Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown remarkable capabilities in processing textual data, they lack mechanisms for handling temporal dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce Language-TPP, a unified framework that integrates TPPs with LLMs for enhanced event sequence modeling. Language-TPP introduces a novel temporal encoding mechanism that converts continuous time intervals into specialized byte-tokens, enabling seamless integration with standard LLM architectures. This approach allows Language-TPP to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple TPP tasks, including event time prediction, type prediction, and intensity estimation, on five datasets. Additionally, we demonstrate that incorporating temporal information significantly improves the quality of generated event descriptions.

Large language models (LLMs) have showcased remarkable reasoning capabilities, yet they remain susceptible to errors, particularly in temporal reasoning tasks involving complex temporal logic. Existing research has explored LLM performance on temporal reasoning using diverse datasets and benchmarks. However, these studies often rely on real-world data that LLMs may have encountered during pre-training or employ anonymization techniques that can inadvertently introduce factual inconsistencies. In this work, we address these limitations by introducing novel synthetic datasets specifically designed to assess LLM temporal reasoning abilities in various scenarios. The diversity of question types across these datasets enables systematic investigation into the impact of the problem structure, size, question type, fact order, and other factors on LLM performance. Our findings provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of current LLMs in temporal reasoning tasks. To foster further research in this area, we are open-sourcing the datasets and evaluation framework used in our experiments: https://huggingface.co/datasets/baharef/ToT.

In this work, we unveil a novel tool for generating Italian crossword puzzles from text, utilizing advanced language models such as GPT-4o, Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3, and Llama3-8b-Instruct. Crafted specifically for educational applications, this cutting-edge generator makes use of the comprehensive Italian-Clue-Instruct dataset, which comprises over 30,000 entries including diverse text, solutions, and types of clues. This carefully assembled dataset is designed to facilitate the creation of contextually relevant clues in various styles associated with specific texts and keywords. The study delves into four distinctive styles of crossword clues: those without format constraints, those formed as definite determiner phrases, copular sentences, and bare noun phrases. Each style introduces unique linguistic structures to diversify clue presentation. Given the lack of sophisticated educational tools tailored to the Italian language, this project seeks to enhance learning experiences and cognitive development through an engaging, interactive platform. By meshing state-of-the-art AI with contemporary educational strategies, our tool can dynamically generate crossword puzzles from Italian educational materials, thereby providing an enjoyable and interactive learning environment. This technological advancement not only redefines educational paradigms but also sets a new benchmark for interactive and cognitive language learning solutions.

Temporal Awareness, the ability to reason dynamically based on the timestamp when a question is raised, is the key distinction between offline and online video LLMs. Unlike offline models, which rely on complete videos for static, post hoc analysis, online models process video streams incrementally and dynamically adapt their responses based on the timestamp at which the question is posed. Despite its significance, temporal awareness has not been adequately evaluated in existing benchmarks. To fill this gap, we present OVO-Bench (Online-VideO-Benchmark), a novel video benchmark that emphasizes the importance of timestamps for advanced online video understanding capability benchmarking. OVO-Bench evaluates the ability of video LLMs to reason and respond to events occurring at specific timestamps under three distinct scenarios: (1) Backward tracing: trace back to past events to answer the question. (2) Real-time understanding: understand and respond to events as they unfold at the current timestamp. (3) Forward active responding: delay the response until sufficient future information becomes available to answer the question accurately. OVO-Bench comprises 12 tasks, featuring 644 unique videos and approximately human-curated 2,800 fine-grained meta-annotations with precise timestamps. We combine automated generation pipelines with human curation. With these high-quality samples, we further developed an evaluation pipeline to systematically query video LLMs along the video timeline. Evaluations of nine Video-LLMs reveal that, despite advancements on traditional benchmarks, current models struggle with online video understanding, showing a significant gap compared to human agents. We hope OVO-Bench will drive progress in video LLMs and inspire future research in online video reasoning. Our benchmark and code can be accessed at https://github.com/JoeLeelyf/OVO-Bench.

Conditional inference on joint textual and visual clues is a multi-modal reasoning task that textual clues provide prior permutation or external knowledge, which are complementary with visual content and pivotal to deducing the correct option. Previous methods utilizing pretrained vision-language models (VLMs) have achieved impressive performances, yet they show a lack of multimodal context reasoning capability, especially for text-modal information. To address this issue, we propose a Multi-modal Context Reasoning approach, named ModCR. Compared to VLMs performing reasoning via cross modal semantic alignment, it regards the given textual abstract semantic and objective image information as the pre-context information and embeds them into the language model to perform context reasoning. Different from recent vision-aided language models used in natural language processing, ModCR incorporates the multi-view semantic alignment information between language and vision by introducing the learnable alignment prefix between image and text in the pretrained language model. This makes the language model well-suitable for such multi-modal reasoning scenario on joint textual and visual clues. We conduct extensive experiments on two corresponding data sets and experimental results show significantly improved performance (exact gain by 4.8% on PMR test set) compared to previous strong baselines. Code Link: https://github.com/YunxinLi/Multimodal-Context-Reasoning.

As humans, we understand events in the visual world contextually, performing multimodal reasoning across time to make inferences about the past, present, and future. We introduce MERLOT, a model that learns multimodal script knowledge by watching millions of YouTube videos with transcribed speech -- in an entirely label-free, self-supervised manner. By pretraining with a mix of both frame-level (spatial) and video-level (temporal) objectives, our model not only learns to match images to temporally corresponding words, but also to contextualize what is happening globally over time. As a result, MERLOT exhibits strong out-of-the-box representations of temporal commonsense, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on 12 different video QA datasets when finetuned. It also transfers well to the world of static images, allowing models to reason about the dynamic context behind visual scenes. On Visual Commonsense Reasoning, MERLOT answers questions correctly with 80.6% accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art models of similar size by over 3%, even those that make heavy use of auxiliary supervised data (like object bounding boxes). Ablation analyses demonstrate the complementary importance of: 1) training on videos versus static images; 2) scaling the magnitude and diversity of the pretraining video corpus; and 3) using diverse objectives that encourage full-stack multimodal reasoning, from the recognition to cognition level.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Temporal sentence grounding (TSG) aims to locate a specific moment from an untrimmed video with a given natural language query. Recently, weakly supervised methods still have a large performance gap compared to fully supervised ones, while the latter requires laborious timestamp annotations. In this study, we aim to reduce the annotation cost yet keep competitive performance for TSG task compared to fully supervised ones. To achieve this goal, we investigate a recently proposed glance-supervised temporal sentence grounding task, which requires only single frame annotation (referred to as glance annotation) for each query. Under this setup, we propose a Dynamic Gaussian prior based Grounding framework with Glance annotation (D3G), which consists of a Semantic Alignment Group Contrastive Learning module (SA-GCL) and a Dynamic Gaussian prior Adjustment module (DGA). Specifically, SA-GCL samples reliable positive moments from a 2D temporal map via jointly leveraging Gaussian prior and semantic consistency, which contributes to aligning the positive sentence-moment pairs in the joint embedding space. Moreover, to alleviate the annotation bias resulting from glance annotation and model complex queries consisting of multiple events, we propose the DGA module, which adjusts the distribution dynamically to approximate the ground truth of target moments. Extensive experiments on three challenging benchmarks verify the effectiveness of the proposed D3G. It outperforms the state-of-the-art weakly supervised methods by a large margin and narrows the performance gap compared to fully supervised methods. Code is available at https://github.com/solicucu/D3G.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

This paper focuses on temporal localization of actions in untrimmed videos. Existing methods typically train classifiers for a pre-defined list of actions and apply them in a sliding window fashion. However, activities in the wild consist of a wide combination of actors, actions and objects; it is difficult to design a proper activity list that meets users' needs. We propose to localize activities by natural language queries. Temporal Activity Localization via Language (TALL) is challenging as it requires: (1) suitable design of text and video representations to allow cross-modal matching of actions and language queries; (2) ability to locate actions accurately given features from sliding windows of limited granularity. We propose a novel Cross-modal Temporal Regression Localizer (CTRL) to jointly model text query and video clips, output alignment scores and action boundary regression results for candidate clips. For evaluation, we adopt TaCoS dataset, and build a new dataset for this task on top of Charades by adding sentence temporal annotations, called Charades-STA. We also build complex sentence queries in Charades-STA for test. Experimental results show that CTRL outperforms previous methods significantly on both datasets.

Natural Language Inference (NLI) tasks involving temporal inference remain challenging for pre-trained language models (LMs). Although various datasets have been created for this task, they primarily focus on English and do not address the need for resources in other languages. It is unclear whether current LMs realize the generalization capacity for temporal inference across languages. In this paper, we present Jamp, a Japanese NLI benchmark focused on temporal inference. Our dataset includes a range of temporal inference patterns, which enables us to conduct fine-grained analysis. To begin the data annotation process, we create diverse inference templates based on the formal semantics test suites. We then automatically generate diverse NLI examples by using the Japanese case frame dictionary and well-designed templates while controlling the distribution of inference patterns and gold labels. We evaluate the generalization capacities of monolingual/multilingual LMs by splitting our dataset based on tense fragments (i.e., temporal inference patterns). Our findings demonstrate that LMs struggle with specific linguistic phenomena, such as habituality, indicating that there is potential for the development of more effective NLI models across languages.

The goal of the Acoustic Question Answering (AQA) task is to answer a free-form text question about the content of an acoustic scene. It was inspired by the Visual Question Answering (VQA) task. In this paper, based on the previously introduced CLEAR dataset, we propose a new benchmark for AQA, namely CLEAR2, that emphasizes the specific challenges of acoustic inputs. These include handling of variable duration scenes, and scenes built with elementary sounds that differ between training and test set. We also introduce NAAQA, a neural architecture that leverages specific properties of acoustic inputs. The use of 1D convolutions in time and frequency to process 2D spectro-temporal representations of acoustic content shows promising results and enables reductions in model complexity. We show that time coordinate maps augment temporal localization capabilities which enhance performance of the network by ~17 percentage points. On the other hand, frequency coordinate maps have little influence on this task. NAAQA achieves 79.5% of accuracy on the AQA task with ~4 times fewer parameters than the previously explored VQA model. We evaluate the perfomance of NAAQA on an independent data set reconstructed from DAQA. We also test the addition of a MALiMo module in our model on both CLEAR2 and DAQA. We provide a detailed analysis of the results for the different question types. We release the code to produce CLEAR2 as well as NAAQA to foster research in this newly emerging machine learning task.

Providing personalized recommendations in an environment where items exhibit ephemerality and temporal relevancy (e.g. in social media) presents a few unique challenges: (1) inductively understanding ephemeral appeal for items in a setting where new items are created frequently, (2) adapting to trends within engagement patterns where items may undergo temporal shifts in relevance, (3) accurately modeling user preferences over this item space where users may express multiple interests. In this work we introduce MiCRO, a generative statistical framework that models multi-interest user preferences and temporal multi-interest item representations. Our framework is specifically formulated to adapt to both new items and temporal patterns of engagement. MiCRO demonstrates strong empirical performance on candidate retrieval experiments performed on two large scale user-item datasets: (1) an open-source temporal dataset of (User, User) follow interactions and (2) a temporal dataset of (User, Tweet) favorite interactions which we will open-source as an additional contribution to the community.

In common law jurisdictions, legal practitioners rely on precedents to construct arguments, in line with the doctrine of stare decisis. As the number of cases grow over the years, prior case retrieval (PCR) has garnered significant attention. Besides lacking real-world scale, existing PCR datasets do not simulate a realistic setting, because their queries use complete case documents while only masking references to prior cases. The query is thereby exposed to legal reasoning not yet available when constructing an argument for an undecided case as well as spurious patterns left behind by citation masks, potentially short-circuiting a comprehensive understanding of case facts and legal principles. To address these limitations, we introduce a PCR dataset based on judgements from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), which explicitly separate facts from arguments and exhibit precedential practices, aiding us to develop this PCR dataset to foster systems' comprehensive understanding. We benchmark different lexical and dense retrieval approaches with various negative sampling strategies, adapting them to deal with long text sequences using hierarchical variants. We found that difficulty-based negative sampling strategies were not effective for the PCR task, highlighting the need for investigation into domain-specific difficulty criteria. Furthermore, we observe performance of the dense models degrade with time and calls for further research into temporal adaptation of retrieval models. Additionally, we assess the influence of different views , Halsbury's and Goodhart's, in practice in ECtHR jurisdiction using PCR task.

Video Large Language Models (Video LLMs) have shown promising capabilities in video comprehension, yet they struggle with tracking temporal changes and reasoning about temporal relationships. While previous research attributed this limitation to the ineffective temporal encoding of visual inputs, our diagnostic study reveals that video representations contain sufficient information for even small probing classifiers to achieve perfect accuracy. Surprisingly, we find that the key bottleneck in Video LLMs' temporal reasoning capability stems from the underlying LLM's inherent difficulty with temporal concepts, as evidenced by poor performance on textual temporal question-answering tasks. Building on this discovery, we introduce the Textual Temporal reasoning Transfer (T3). T3 synthesizes diverse temporal reasoning tasks in pure text format from existing image-text datasets, addressing the scarcity of video samples with complex temporal scenarios. Remarkably, without using any video data, T3 enhances LongVA-7B's temporal understanding, yielding a 5.3 absolute accuracy improvement on the challenging TempCompass benchmark, which enables our model to outperform ShareGPT4Video-8B trained on 28,000 video samples. Additionally, the enhanced LongVA-7B model achieves competitive performance on comprehensive video benchmarks. For example, it achieves a 49.7 accuracy on the Temporal Reasoning task of Video-MME, surpassing powerful large-scale models such as InternVL-Chat-V1.5-20B and VILA1.5-40B. Further analysis reveals a strong correlation between textual and video temporal task performance, validating the efficacy of transferring temporal reasoning abilities from text to video domains.

Recent advancements in audio generation have enabled the creation of high-fidelity audio clips from free-form textual descriptions. However, temporal relationships, a critical feature for audio content, are currently underrepresented in mainstream models, resulting in an imprecise temporal controllability. Specifically, users cannot accurately control the timestamps of sound events using free-form text. We acknowledge that a significant factor is the absence of high-quality, temporally-aligned audio-text datasets, which are essential for training models with temporal control. The more temporally-aligned the annotations, the better the models can understand the precise relationship between audio outputs and temporal textual prompts. Therefore, we present a strongly aligned audio-text dataset, AudioTime. It provides text annotations rich in temporal information such as timestamps, duration, frequency, and ordering, covering almost all aspects of temporal control. Additionally, we offer a comprehensive test set and evaluation metric to assess the temporal control performance of various models. Examples are available on the https://zeyuxie29.github.io/AudioTime/

Understanding fine-grained temporal dynamics is crucial for multimodal video comprehension and generation. Due to the lack of fine-grained temporal annotations, existing video benchmarks mostly resemble static image benchmarks and are incompetent at evaluating models for temporal understanding. In this paper, we introduce TemporalBench, a new benchmark dedicated to evaluating fine-grained temporal understanding in videos. TemporalBench consists of ~10K video question-answer pairs, derived from ~2K high-quality human annotations detailing the temporal dynamics in video clips. As a result, our benchmark provides a unique testbed for evaluating various temporal understanding and reasoning abilities such as action frequency, motion magnitude, event order, etc. Moreover, it enables evaluations on various tasks like both video question answering and captioning, both short and long video understanding, as well as different models such as multimodal video embedding models and text generation models. Results show that state-of-the-art models like GPT-4o achieve only 38.5% question answering accuracy on TemporalBench, demonstrating a significant gap (~30%) between humans and AI in temporal understanding. Furthermore, we notice a critical pitfall for multi-choice QA where LLMs can detect the subtle changes in negative captions and find a centralized description as a cue for its prediction, where we propose Multiple Binary Accuracy (MBA) to correct such bias. We hope that TemporalBench can foster research on improving models' temporal reasoning capabilities. Both dataset and evaluation code will be made available.

The stock market is a network which provides a platform for almost all major economic transactions. While investing in the stock market is a good idea, investing in individual stocks may not be, especially for the casual investor. Smart stock-picking requires in-depth research and plenty of dedication. Predicting this stock value offers enormous arbitrage profit opportunities. This attractiveness of finding a solution has prompted researchers to find a way past problems like volatility, seasonality, and dependence on time. This paper surveys recent literature in the domain of natural language processing and machine learning techniques used to predict stock market movements. The main contributions of this paper include the sophisticated categorizations of many recent articles and the illustration of the recent trends of research in stock market prediction and its related areas.

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have sparked debate over whether such systems just learn an enormous collection of superficial statistics or a coherent model of the data generating process -- a world model. We find evidence for the latter by analyzing the learned representations of three spatial datasets (world, US, NYC places) and three temporal datasets (historical figures, artworks, news headlines) in the Llama-2 family of models. We discover that LLMs learn linear representations of space and time across multiple scales. These representations are robust to prompting variations and unified across different entity types (e.g. cities and landmarks). In addition, we identify individual ``space neurons'' and ``time neurons'' that reliably encode spatial and temporal coordinates. Our analysis demonstrates that modern LLMs acquire structured knowledge about fundamental dimensions such as space and time, supporting the view that they learn not merely superficial statistics, but literal world models.

Binding precedents (S\'umulas Vinculantes) constitute a juridical instrument unique to the Brazilian legal system and whose objectives include the protection of the Federal Supreme Court against repetitive demands. Studies of the effectiveness of these instruments in decreasing the Court's exposure to similar cases, however, indicate that they tend to fail in such a direction, with some of the binding precedents seemingly creating new demands. We empirically assess the legal impact of five binding precedents, 11, 14, 17, 26 and 37, at the highest court level through their effects on the legal subjects they address. This analysis is only possible through the comparison of the Court's ruling about the precedents' themes before they are created, which means that these decisions should be detected through techniques of Similar Case Retrieval. The contributions of this article are therefore twofold: on the mathematical side, we compare the uses of different methods of Natural Language Processing -- TF-IDF, LSTM, BERT, and regex -- for Similar Case Retrieval, whereas on the legal side, we contrast the inefficiency of these binding precedents with a set of hypotheses that may justify their repeated usage. We observe that the deep learning models performed significantly worse in the specific Similar Case Retrieval task and that the reasons for binding precedents to fail in responding to repetitive demand are heterogeneous and case-dependent, making it impossible to single out a specific cause.

The article introduces a new set of Polish word embeddings, built using KGR10 corpus, which contains more than 4 billion words. These embeddings are evaluated in the problem of recognition of temporal expressions (timexes) for the Polish language. We described the process of KGR10 corpus creation and a new approach to the recognition problem using Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (BiLSTM) network with additional CRF layer, where specific embeddings are essential. We presented experiments and conclusions drawn from them.

In the fast-changing realm of information, the capacity to construct coherent timelines from extensive event-related content has become increasingly significant and challenging. The complexity arises in aggregating related documents to build a meaningful event graph around a central topic. This paper proposes CHRONOS - Causal Headline Retrieval for Open-domain News Timeline SummarizatiOn via Iterative Self-Questioning, which offers a fresh perspective on the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) to tackle the task of Timeline Summarization (TLS). By iteratively reflecting on how events are linked and posing new questions regarding a specific news topic to gather information online or from an offline knowledge base, LLMs produce and refresh chronological summaries based on documents retrieved in each round. Furthermore, we curate Open-TLS, a novel dataset of timelines on recent news topics authored by professional journalists to evaluate open-domain TLS where information overload makes it impossible to find comprehensive relevant documents from the web. Our experiments indicate that CHRONOS is not only adept at open-domain timeline summarization, but it also rivals the performance of existing state-of-the-art systems designed for closed-domain applications, where a related news corpus is provided for summarization.

We present our submission to the AXOLOTL-24 shared task. The shared task comprises two subtasks: identifying new senses that words gain with time (when comparing newer and older time periods) and producing the definitions for the identified new senses. We implemented a conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive solution to both subtasks. We trained adapter-based binary classification models to match glosses with usage examples and leveraged the probability output of the models to identify novel senses. The same models were used to match examples of novel sense usages with Wiktionary definitions. Our submission attained third place on the first subtask and the first place on the second subtask.

Recently, there is a surge in interest surrounding video large language models (Video LLMs). However, existing benchmarks fail to provide a comprehensive feedback on the temporal perception ability of Video LLMs. On the one hand, most of them are unable to distinguish between different temporal aspects (e.g., speed, direction) and thus cannot reflect the nuanced performance on these specific aspects. On the other hand, they are limited in the diversity of task formats (e.g., only multi-choice QA), which hinders the understanding of how temporal perception performance may vary across different types of tasks. Motivated by these two problems, we propose the TempCompass benchmark, which introduces a diversity of temporal aspects and task formats. To collect high-quality test data, we devise two novel strategies: (1) In video collection, we construct conflicting videos that share the same static content but differ in a specific temporal aspect, which prevents Video LLMs from leveraging single-frame bias or language priors. (2) To collect the task instructions, we propose a paradigm where humans first annotate meta-information for a video and then an LLM generates the instruction. We also design an LLM-based approach to automatically and accurately evaluate the responses from Video LLMs. Based on TempCompass, we comprehensively evaluate 8 state-of-the-art (SOTA) Video LLMs and 3 Image LLMs, and reveal the discerning fact that these models exhibit notably poor temporal perception ability. The data and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/llyx97/TempCompass.

Information retrieval in real-time search presents unique challenges distinct from those encountered in classical web search. These challenges are particularly pronounced due to the rapid change of user search intent, which is influenced by the occurrence and evolution of breaking news events, such as earthquakes, elections, and wars. Previous dense retrieval methods, which primarily focused on static semantic representation, lack the capacity to capture immediate search intent, leading to inferior performance in retrieving the most recent event-related documents in time-sensitive scenarios. To address this issue, this paper expands the query with event information that represents real-time search intent. The Event information is then integrated with the query through a cross-attention mechanism, resulting in a time-context query representation. We further enhance the model's capacity for event representation through multi-task training. Since publicly available datasets such as MS-MARCO do not contain any event information on the query side and have few time-sensitive queries, we design an automatic data collection and annotation pipeline to address this issue, which includes ModelZoo-based Coarse Annotation and LLM-driven Fine Annotation processes. In addition, we share the training tricks such as two-stage training and hard negative sampling. Finally, we conduct a set of offline experiments on a million-scale production dataset to evaluate our approach and deploy an A/B testing in a real online system to verify the performance. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Language Models (LMs) have shown substantial improvements in handling factual knowledge, yet their capability to consistently represent temporal facts, which are valid only within specific timeframes, remains underexplored. To investigate this, we introduce TimeStress, a novel dataset comprising 521K statements on 2003 of the most popular temporal facts in Wikidata. Each statement contextualizes a fact with correct and incorrect dates across three precisions (Day, Month, Year). This setup allows us to evaluate LMs' ability to discern between correct and incorrect temporal statements based on their probability of being generated. We assess 18 LMs across various architectures using two metrics: the win rate, indicating how often correct dates outperform incorrect ones, and robustness, reflecting consistent performance across all dates. Our findings reveal that while some LMs achieve a win rate exceeding 80\%, robustness remains low, with the best model achieving only 6\%. Furthermore, robust knowledge at one date precision does not reliably transfer to others, highlighting a significant generalization gap. These results underscore the struggle of LMs to maintain a consistent temporal representation, supporting their limitations as reliable sources of temporal knowledge. We provide all data and code for further research.

Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) focuses on accurately identifying event timestamps within a particular video based on a linguistic query, playing a vital role in downstream tasks such as video browsing and editing. While Video Large Language Models (video LLMs) have made significant progress in understanding video content, they often face challenges in accurately pinpointing timestamps within videos, which limits their performance on VTG tasks. Therefore, to improve video LLMs' ability to effectively locate timestamps, we argue that two critical aspects need to be enhanced. First, it is essential to have high-quality instructional tuning datasets that encompass mainstream VTG tasks. Second, directly incorporating timestamp knowledge into video LLMs is crucial, as it enables models to efficiently comprehend timestamp information. To address these needs, we first introduce VTG-IT-120K, a high-quality and comprehensive instruction tuning dataset that covers VTG tasks such as moment retrieval, dense video captioning, video summarization, and video highlight detection. Furthermore, we propose a specially designed video LLM model for VTG tasks, VTG-LLM, which (1) effectively integrates timestamp knowledge into visual tokens; (2) incorporates absolute-time tokens that specifically handle timestamp knowledge, thereby avoiding concept shifts; and (3) introduces a lightweight, high-performance slot-based token compression method to facilitate the sampling of more video frames. Comprehensive experiments showcase the superior performance of VTG-LLM in comparison to other video LLM methods across various VTG tasks. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/gyxxyg/VTG-LLM.

Models of language trained on very large corpora have been demonstrated useful for NLP. As fixed artifacts, they have become the object of intense study, with many researchers "probing" the extent to which linguistic abstractions, factual and commonsense knowledge, and reasoning abilities they acquire and readily demonstrate. Building on this line of work, we consider a new question: for types of knowledge a language model learns, when during (pre)training are they acquired? We plot probing performance across iterations, using RoBERTa as a case study. Among our findings: linguistic knowledge is acquired fast, stably, and robustly across domains. Facts and commonsense are slower and more domain-sensitive. Reasoning abilities are, in general, not stably acquired. As new datasets, pretraining protocols, and probes emerge, we believe that probing-across-time analyses can help researchers understand the complex, intermingled learning that these models undergo and guide us toward more efficient approaches that accomplish necessary learning faster.

Despite its importance, the time variable has been largely neglected in the NLP and language model literature. In this paper, we present TimeLMs, a set of language models specialized on diachronic Twitter data. We show that a continual learning strategy contributes to enhancing Twitter-based language models' capacity to deal with future and out-of-distribution tweets, while making them competitive with standardized and more monolithic benchmarks. We also perform a number of qualitative analyses showing how they cope with trends and peaks in activity involving specific named entities or concept drift.

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

We introduce ReXTime, a benchmark designed to rigorously test AI models' ability to perform temporal reasoning within video events. Specifically, ReXTime focuses on reasoning across time, i.e. human-like understanding when the question and its corresponding answer occur in different video segments. This form of reasoning, requiring advanced understanding of cause-and-effect relationships across video segments, poses significant challenges to even the frontier multimodal large language models. To facilitate this evaluation, we develop an automated pipeline for generating temporal reasoning question-answer pairs, significantly reducing the need for labor-intensive manual annotations. Our benchmark includes 921 carefully vetted validation samples and 2,143 test samples, each manually curated for accuracy and relevance. Evaluation results show that while frontier large language models outperform academic models, they still lag behind human performance by a significant 14.3% accuracy gap. Additionally, our pipeline creates a training dataset of 9,695 machine generated samples without manual effort, which empirical studies suggest can enhance the across-time reasoning via fine-tuning.

Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have enabled numerous advances in understanding and reasoning in domains like vision, but we have not yet seen this broad success for time-series. Although prior works on time-series MLLMs have shown promising performance in time-series forecasting, very few works show how an LLM could be used for time-series reasoning in natural language. We propose a novel multi-modal time-series LLM approach that learns generalizable information across various domains with powerful zero-shot performance. First, we train a lightweight time-series encoder on top of an LLM to directly extract time-series information. Then, we fine-tune our model with chain-of-thought augmented time-series tasks to encourage the model to generate reasoning paths. We show that our model learns a latent representation that reflects specific time-series features (e.g. slope, frequency), as well as outperforming GPT-4o on a set of zero-shot reasoning tasks on a variety of domains.

When re-finding items, users who forget or are uncertain about identifying details often rely on creative strategies for expressing their information needs -- complex queries that describe content elements (e.g., book characters or events), information beyond the document text (e.g., descriptions of book covers), or personal context (e.g., when they read a book). This retrieval setting, called tip of the tongue (TOT), is especially challenging for models heavily reliant on lexical and semantic overlap between query and document text. In this work, we introduce a simple yet effective framework for handling such complex queries by decomposing the query into individual clues, routing those as sub-queries to specialized retrievers, and ensembling the results. This approach allows us to take advantage of off-the-shelf retrievers (e.g., CLIP for retrieving images of book covers) or incorporate retriever-specific logic (e.g., date constraints). We show that our framework incorportating query decompositions into retrievers can improve gold book recall up to 7% relative again for Recall@5 on a new collection of 14,441 real-world query-book pairs from an online community for resolving TOT inquiries.

We describe a dataset developed for Named Entity Recognition in German federal court decisions. It consists of approx. 67,000 sentences with over 2 million tokens. The resource contains 54,000 manually annotated entities, mapped to 19 fine-grained semantic classes: person, judge, lawyer, country, city, street, landscape, organization, company, institution, court, brand, law, ordinance, European legal norm, regulation, contract, court decision, and legal literature. The legal documents were, furthermore, automatically annotated with more than 35,000 TimeML-based time expressions. The dataset, which is available under a CC-BY 4.0 license in the CoNNL-2002 format, was developed for training an NER service for German legal documents in the EU project Lynx.

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are widely used to model the timing and occurrence of events in domains such as social networks, transportation systems, and e-commerce. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM, a novel framework that integrates large language models (LLMs) with TPPs to capture both the semantic and temporal aspects of event sequences. Unlike traditional methods that rely on categorical event type representations, TPP-LLM directly utilizes the textual descriptions of event types, enabling the model to capture rich semantic information embedded in the text. While LLMs excel at understanding event semantics, they are less adept at capturing temporal patterns. To address this, TPP-LLM incorporates temporal embeddings and employs parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods to effectively learn temporal dynamics without extensive retraining. This approach improves both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Experimental results across diverse real-world datasets demonstrate that TPP-LLM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in sequence modeling and event prediction, highlighting the benefits of combining LLMs with TPPs.

Spatio-temporal Human-Object Interaction (ST-HOI) understanding aims at detecting HOIs from videos, which is crucial for activity understanding. However, existing whole-body-object interaction video benchmarks overlook the truth that open-world objects are diverse, that is, they usually provide limited and predefined object classes. Therefore, we introduce a new open-world benchmark: Grounding Interacted Objects (GIO) including 1,098 interacted objects class and 290K interacted object boxes annotation. Accordingly, an object grounding task is proposed expecting vision systems to discover interacted objects. Even though today's detectors and grounding methods have succeeded greatly, they perform unsatisfactorily in localizing diverse and rare objects in GIO. This profoundly reveals the limitations of current vision systems and poses a great challenge. Thus, we explore leveraging spatio-temporal cues to address object grounding and propose a 4D question-answering framework (4D-QA) to discover interacted objects from diverse videos. Our method demonstrates significant superiority in extensive experiments compared to current baselines. Data and code will be publicly available at https://github.com/DirtyHarryLYL/HAKE-AVA.

Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to obtain spiking activity of multiple neurons from different brain regions over long time periods, which requires new statistical methods to be developed for understanding structure of the large-scale data. In this paper, we develop a bi-clustering method to cluster the neural spiking activity spatially and temporally, according to their low-dimensional latent structures. The spatial (neuron) clusters are defined by the latent trajectories within each neural population, while the temporal (state) clusters are defined by (populationally) synchronous local linear dynamics shared with different periods. To flexibly extract the bi-clustering structure, we build the model non-parametrically, and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample the posterior distributions of model parameters. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find the method can recover unknown parameters and true bi-clustering structures successfully. We then apply the proposed bi-clustering method to multi-regional neural recordings under different experiment settings, where we find that simultaneously considering latent trajectories and spatial-temporal clustering structures can provide us with a more accurate and interpretable result. Overall, the proposed method provides scientific insights for large-scale (counting) time series with elongated recording periods, and it can potentially have application beyond neuroscience.

Temporal modeling plays a crucial role in understanding video content. To tackle this problem, previous studies built complicated temporal relations through time sequence thanks to the development of computationally powerful devices. In this work, we explore the potential of four simple arithmetic operations for temporal modeling. Specifically, we first capture auxiliary temporal cues by computing addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division between pairs of extracted frame features. Then, we extract corresponding features from these cues to benefit the original temporal-irrespective domain. We term such a simple pipeline as an Arithmetic Temporal Module (ATM), which operates on the stem of a visual backbone with a plug-and-play style. We conduct comprehensive ablation studies on the instantiation of ATMs and demonstrate that this module provides powerful temporal modeling capability at a low computational cost. Moreover, the ATM is compatible with both CNNs- and ViTs-based architectures. Our results show that ATM achieves superior performance over several popular video benchmarks. Specifically, on Something-Something V1, V2 and Kinetics-400, we reach top-1 accuracy of 65.6%, 74.6%, and 89.4% respectively. The code is available at https://github.com/whwu95/ATM.

The unprecedented surge in video data production in recent years necessitates efficient tools to extract meaningful frames from videos for downstream tasks. Long-term temporal reasoning is a key desideratum for frame retrieval systems. While state-of-the-art foundation models, like VideoLLaMA and ViCLIP, are proficient in short-term semantic understanding, they surprisingly fail at long-term reasoning across frames. A key reason for this failure is that they intertwine per-frame perception and temporal reasoning into a single deep network. Hence, decoupling but co-designing semantic understanding and temporal reasoning is essential for efficient scene identification. We propose a system that leverages vision-language models for semantic understanding of individual frames but effectively reasons about the long-term evolution of events using state machines and temporal logic (TL) formulae that inherently capture memory. Our TL-based reasoning improves the F1 score of complex event identification by 9-15% compared to benchmarks that use GPT4 for reasoning on state-of-the-art self-driving datasets such as Waymo and NuScenes.

Languages can encode temporal subordination lexically, via subordinating conjunctions, and morphologically, by marking the relation on the predicate. Systematic cross-linguistic variation among the former can be studied using well-established token-based typological approaches to token-aligned parallel corpora. Variation among different morphological means is instead much harder to tackle and therefore more poorly understood, despite being predominant in several language groups. This paper explores variation in the expression of generic temporal subordination ('when'-clauses) among the languages of Latin America and the Caribbean, where morphological marking is particularly common. It presents probabilistic semantic maps computed on the basis of the languages of the region, thus avoiding bias towards the many world's languages that exclusively use lexified connectors, incorporating associations between character n-grams and English when. The approach allows capturing morphological clause-linkage devices in addition to lexified connectors, paving the way for larger-scale, strategy-agnostic analyses of typological variation in temporal subordination.

Understanding time series is crucial for its application in real-world scenarios. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly applied to time series tasks, leveraging their strong language capabilities to enhance various applications. However, research on multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) for time series understanding and reasoning remains limited, primarily due to the scarcity of high-quality datasets that align time series with textual information. This paper introduces ChatTS, a novel MLLM designed for time series analysis. ChatTS treats time series as a modality, similar to how vision MLLMs process images, enabling it to perform both understanding and reasoning with time series. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose an attribute-based method for generating synthetic time series with detailed attribute descriptions. We further introduce Time Series Evol-Instruct, a novel approach that generates diverse time series Q&As, enhancing the model's reasoning capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, ChatTS is the first MLLM that takes multivariate time series as input, which is fine-tuned exclusively on synthetic datasets. We evaluate its performance using benchmark datasets with real-world data, including six alignment tasks and four reasoning tasks. Our results show that ChatTS significantly outperforms existing vision-based MLLMs (e.g., GPT-4o) and text/agent-based LLMs, achieving a 46.0% improvement in alignment tasks and a 25.8% improvement in reasoning tasks.

Can human reading comprehension be assessed from eye movements in reading? In this work, we address this longstanding question using large-scale eyetracking data over textual materials that are geared towards behavioral analyses of reading comprehension. We focus on a fine-grained and largely unaddressed task of predicting reading comprehension from eye movements at the level of a single question over a passage. We tackle this task using three new multimodal language models, as well as a battery of prior models from the literature. We evaluate the models' ability to generalize to new textual items, new participants, and the combination of both, in two different reading regimes, ordinary reading and information seeking. The evaluations suggest that although the task is highly challenging, eye movements contain useful signals for fine-grained prediction of reading comprehension. Code and data will be made publicly available.

ClueWeb22, the newest iteration of the ClueWeb line of datasets, provides 10 billion web pages affiliated with rich information. Its design was influenced by the need for a high quality, large scale web corpus to support a range of academic and industry research, for example, in information systems, retrieval-augmented AI systems, and model pretraining. Compared with earlier ClueWeb corpora, the ClueWeb22 corpus is larger, more varied, of higher-quality, and aligned with the document distributions in commercial web search. Besides raw HTML, ClueWeb22 includes rich information about the web pages provided by industry-standard document understanding systems, including the visual representation of pages rendered by a web browser, parsed HTML structure information from a neural network parser, and pre-processed cleaned document text to lower the barrier to entry. Many of these signals have been widely used in industry but are available to the research community for the first time at this scale.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Recently, Vision Large Language Models (VLLMs) integrated with vision encoders have shown promising performance in vision understanding. The key of VLLMs is to encode visual content into sequences of visual tokens, enabling VLLMs to simultaneously process both visual and textual content. However, understanding videos, especially long videos, remain a challenge to VLLMs as the number of visual tokens grows rapidly when encoding videos, resulting in the risk of exceeding the context window of VLLMs and introducing heavy computation burden. To restrict the number of visual tokens, existing VLLMs either: (1) uniformly downsample videos into a fixed number of frames or (2) reducing the number of visual tokens encoded from each frame. We argue the former solution neglects the rich temporal cue in videos and the later overlooks the spatial details in each frame. In this work, we present Balanced-VLLM (B-VLLM): a novel VLLM framework that aims to effectively leverage task relevant spatio-temporal cues while restricting the number of visual tokens under the VLLM context window length. At the core of our method, we devise a text-conditioned adaptive frame selection module to identify frames relevant to the visual understanding task. The selected frames are then de-duplicated using a temporal frame token merging technique. The visual tokens of the selected frames are processed through a spatial token sampling module and an optional spatial token merging strategy to achieve precise control over the token count. Experimental results show that B-VLLM is effective in balancing the number of frames and visual tokens in video understanding, yielding superior performance on various video understanding benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhuqiangLu/B-VLLM.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

The field of machine learning has achieved striking progress in recent years, witnessing breakthrough results on language modelling, protein folding and nitpickingly fine-grained dog breed classification. Some even succeeded at playing computer games and board games, a feat both of engineering and of setting their employers' expectations. The central contribution of this work is to carefully examine whether this progress, and technology more broadly, can be expected to continue indefinitely. Through a rigorous application of statistical theory and failure to extrapolate beyond the training data, we answer firmly in the negative and provide details: technology will peak at 3:07 am (BST) on 20th July, 2032. We then explore the implications of this finding, discovering that individuals awake at this ungodly hour with access to a sufficiently powerful computer possess an opportunity for myriad forms of long-term linguistic 'lock in'. All we need is a large (>> 1W) data centre to seize this pivotal moment. By setting our analogue alarm clocks, we propose a tractable algorithm to ensure that, for the future of humanity, the British spelling of colour becomes the default spelling across more than 80% of the global word processing software market.

Fake news detection has been a critical task for maintaining the health of the online news ecosystem. However, very few existing works consider the temporal shift issue caused by the rapidly-evolving nature of news data in practice, resulting in significant performance degradation when training on past data and testing on future data. In this paper, we observe that the appearances of news events on the same topic may display discernible patterns over time, and posit that such patterns can assist in selecting training instances that could make the model adapt better to future data. Specifically, we design an effective framework FTT (Forecasting Temporal Trends), which could forecast the temporal distribution patterns of news data and then guide the detector to fast adapt to future distribution. Experiments on the real-world temporally split dataset demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework. The code is available at https://github.com/ICTMCG/FTT-ACL23.

We consider the task of temporal human action localization in lifestyle vlogs. We introduce a novel dataset consisting of manual annotations of temporal localization for 13,000 narrated actions in 1,200 video clips. We present an extensive analysis of this data, which allows us to better understand how the language and visual modalities interact throughout the videos. We propose a simple yet effective method to localize the narrated actions based on their expected duration. Through several experiments and analyses, we show that our method brings complementary information with respect to previous methods, and leads to improvements over previous work for the task of temporal action localization.

With the release of large-scale motion datasets with textual annotations, the task of establishing a robust latent space for language and 3D human motion has recently witnessed a surge of interest. Methods have been proposed to convert human motion and texts into features to achieve accurate correspondence between them. Despite these efforts to align language and motion representations, we claim that the temporal element is often overlooked, especially for compound actions, resulting in chronological inaccuracies. To shed light on the temporal alignment in motion-language latent spaces, we propose Chronologically Accurate Retrieval (CAR) to evaluate the chronological understanding of the models. We decompose textual descriptions into events, and prepare negative text samples by shuffling the order of events in compound action descriptions. We then design a simple task for motion-language models to retrieve the more likely text from the ground truth and its chronologically shuffled version. CAR reveals many cases where current motion-language models fail to distinguish the event chronology of human motion, despite their impressive performance in terms of conventional evaluation metrics. To achieve better temporal alignment between text and motion, we further propose to use these texts with shuffled sequence of events as negative samples during training to reinforce the motion-language models. We conduct experiments on text-motion retrieval and text-to-motion generation using the reinforced motion-language models, which demonstrate improved performance over conventional approaches, indicating the necessity to consider temporal elements in motion-language alignment.

Learning specific hands-on skills such as cooking, car maintenance, and home repairs increasingly happens via instructional videos. The user experience with such videos is known to be improved by meta-information such as time-stamped annotations for the main steps involved. Generating such annotations automatically is challenging, and we describe here two relevant contributions. First, we construct and release a new dense video captioning dataset, Video Timeline Tags (ViTT), featuring a variety of instructional videos together with time-stamped annotations. Second, we explore several multimodal sequence-to-sequence pretraining strategies that leverage large unsupervised datasets of videos and caption-like texts. We pretrain and subsequently finetune dense video captioning models using both YouCook2 and ViTT. We show that such models generalize well and are robust over a wide variety of instructional videos.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated a remarkable ability to model time series data. These capabilities can be partly explained if LLMs understand basic time series concepts. However, our knowledge of what these models understand about time series data remains relatively limited. To address this gap, we introduce TimeSeriesExam, a configurable and scalable multiple-choice question exam designed to assess LLMs across five core time series understanding categories: pattern recognition, noise understanding, similarity analysis, anomaly detection, and causality analysis. TimeSeriesExam comprises of over 700 questions, procedurally generated using 104 carefully curated templates and iteratively refined to balance difficulty and their ability to discriminate good from bad models. We test 7 state-of-the-art LLMs on the TimeSeriesExam and provide the first comprehensive evaluation of their time series understanding abilities. Our results suggest that closed-source models such as GPT-4 and Gemini understand simple time series concepts significantly better than their open-source counterparts, while all models struggle with complex concepts such as causality analysis. We believe that the ability to programatically generate questions is fundamental to assessing and improving LLM's ability to understand and reason about time series data.

We propose a novel framework for video understanding, called Temporally Contextualized CLIP (TC-CLIP), which leverages essential temporal information through global interactions in a spatio-temporal domain within a video. To be specific, we introduce Temporal Contextualization (TC), a layer-wise temporal information infusion mechanism for videos, which 1) extracts core information from each frame, 2) connects relevant information across frames for the summarization into context tokens, and 3) leverages the context tokens for feature encoding. Furthermore, the Video-conditional Prompting (VP) module processes context tokens to generate informative prompts in the text modality. Extensive experiments in zero-shot, few-shot, base-to-novel, and fully-supervised action recognition validate the effectiveness of our model. Ablation studies for TC and VP support our design choices. Our project page with the source code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/tc-clip

With the proliferation of social media, many studies resort to social media to construct datasets for developing social meaning understanding systems. For the popular case of Twitter, most researchers distribute tweet IDs without the actual text contents due to the data distribution policy of the platform. One issue is that the posts become increasingly inaccessible over time, which leads to unfair comparisons and a temporal bias in social media research. To alleviate this challenge of data decay, we leverage a paraphrase model to propose a new persistent English Twitter dataset for social meaning (PTSM). PTSM consists of 17 social meaning datasets in 10 categories of tasks. We experiment with two SOTA pre-trained language models and show that our PTSM can substitute the actual tweets with paraphrases with marginal performance loss.

We investigate in-context temporal biases in attention heads and transformer outputs. Using cognitive science methodologies, we analyze attention scores and outputs of the GPT-2 models of varying sizes. Across attention heads, we observe effects characteristic of human episodic memory, including temporal contiguity, primacy and recency. Transformer outputs demonstrate a tendency toward in-context serial recall. Importantly, this effect is eliminated after the ablation of the induction heads, which are the driving force behind the contiguity effect. Our findings offer insights into how transformers organize information temporally during in-context learning, shedding light on their similarities and differences with human memory and learning.

Understanding commonsense causality is a unique mark of intelligence for humans. It helps people understand the principles of the real world better and benefits the decision-making process related to causation. For instance, commonsense causality is crucial in judging whether a defendant's action causes the plaintiff's loss in determining legal liability. Despite its significance, a systematic exploration of this topic is notably lacking. Our comprehensive survey bridges this gap by focusing on taxonomies, benchmarks, acquisition methods, qualitative reasoning, and quantitative measurements in commonsense causality, synthesizing insights from over 200 representative articles. Our work aims to provide a systematic overview, update scholars on recent advancements, provide a pragmatic guide for beginners, and highlight promising future research directions in this vital field.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

Despite remarkable advancements in emulating human-like behavior through Large Language Models (LLMs), current textual simulations do not adequately address the notion of time. To this end, we introduce TimeArena, a novel textual simulated environment that incorporates complex temporal dynamics and constraints that better reflect real-life planning scenarios. In TimeArena, agents are asked to complete multiple tasks as soon as possible, allowing for parallel processing to save time. We implement the dependency between actions, the time duration for each action, and the occupancy of the agent and the objects in the environment. TimeArena grounds to 30 real-world tasks in cooking, household activities, and laboratory work. We conduct extensive experiments with various state-of-the-art LLMs using TimeArena. Our findings reveal that even the most powerful models, e.g., GPT-4, still lag behind humans in effective multitasking, underscoring the need for enhanced temporal awareness in the development of language agents.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

We present the Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB), a collection of challenging and diverse benchmark datasets for realistic, reproducible, and robust evaluation of machine learning models on temporal graphs. TGB datasets are of large scale, spanning years in duration, incorporate both node and edge-level prediction tasks and cover a diverse set of domains including social, trade, transaction, and transportation networks. For both tasks, we design evaluation protocols based on realistic use-cases. We extensively benchmark each dataset and find that the performance of common models can vary drastically across datasets. In addition, on dynamic node property prediction tasks, we show that simple methods often achieve superior performance compared to existing temporal graph models. We believe that these findings open up opportunities for future research on temporal graphs. Finally, TGB provides an automated machine learning pipeline for reproducible and accessible temporal graph research, including data loading, experiment setup and performance evaluation. TGB will be maintained and updated on a regular basis and welcomes community feedback. TGB datasets, data loaders, example codes, evaluation setup, and leaderboards are publicly available at https://tgb.complexdatalab.com/.

We introduce the concept of multiple temporal perspectives, a novel approach applicable to Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architectures for enhancing their understanding of sequential data. This method involves maintaining diverse temporal views of previously encountered text, significantly enriching the language models' capacity to interpret context. To show the efficacy of this approach, we incorporate it into the Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV) architecture, addressing its inherent challenge of retaining all historical information within a single hidden state. Notably, this improvement is achieved with a minimal increase in the number of parameters --even as little as 0.04% of the original number of parameters. Further, the additional parameters necessary for the multiple temporal perspectives are fine-tuned with minimal computational overhead, avoiding the need for a full pre-training. The resulting model maintains linear computational complexity during prompt inference, ensuring consistent efficiency across various sequence lengths. The empirical results and ablation studies included in our research validate the effectiveness of our approach, showcasing improved performance across multiple benchmarks. The code, model weights and datasets are open-sourced at: https://github.com/RazvanDu/TemporalRNNs.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

We consider retrieving a specific temporal segment, or moment, from a video given a natural language text description. Methods designed to retrieve whole video clips with natural language determine what occurs in a video but not when. To address this issue, we propose the Moment Context Network (MCN) which effectively localizes natural language queries in videos by integrating local and global video features over time. A key obstacle to training our MCN model is that current video datasets do not include pairs of localized video segments and referring expressions, or text descriptions which uniquely identify a corresponding moment. Therefore, we collect the Distinct Describable Moments (DiDeMo) dataset which consists of over 10,000 unedited, personal videos in diverse visual settings with pairs of localized video segments and referring expressions. We demonstrate that MCN outperforms several baseline methods and believe that our initial results together with the release of DiDeMo will inspire further research on localizing video moments with natural language.

We present the task of Spatio-Temporal Video Question Answering, which requires intelligent systems to simultaneously retrieve relevant moments and detect referenced visual concepts (people and objects) to answer natural language questions about videos. We first augment the TVQA dataset with 310.8K bounding boxes, linking depicted objects to visual concepts in questions and answers. We name this augmented version as TVQA+. We then propose Spatio-Temporal Answerer with Grounded Evidence (STAGE), a unified framework that grounds evidence in both spatial and temporal domains to answer questions about videos. Comprehensive experiments and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework and how the rich annotations in our TVQA+ dataset can contribute to the question answering task. Moreover, by performing this joint task, our model is able to produce insightful and interpretable spatio-temporal attention visualizations. Dataset and code are publicly available at: http: //tvqa.cs.unc.edu, https://github.com/jayleicn/TVQAplus

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

We present a new dataset, Functional Map of the World (fMoW), which aims to inspire the development of machine learning models capable of predicting the functional purpose of buildings and land use from temporal sequences of satellite images and a rich set of metadata features. The metadata provided with each image enables reasoning about location, time, sun angles, physical sizes, and other features when making predictions about objects in the image. Our dataset consists of over 1 million images from over 200 countries. For each image, we provide at least one bounding box annotation containing one of 63 categories, including a "false detection" category. We present an analysis of the dataset along with baseline approaches that reason about metadata and temporal views. Our data, code, and pretrained models have been made publicly available.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

Diverse actions give rise to rich audio-visual signals in long videos. Recent works showcase that the two modalities of audio and video exhibit different temporal extents of events and distinct labels. We address the interplay between the two modalities in long videos by explicitly modelling the temporal extents of audio and visual events. We propose the Time Interval Machine (TIM) where a modality-specific time interval poses as a query to a transformer encoder that ingests a long video input. The encoder then attends to the specified interval, as well as the surrounding context in both modalities, in order to recognise the ongoing action. We test TIM on three long audio-visual video datasets: EPIC-KITCHENS, Perception Test, and AVE, reporting state-of-the-art (SOTA) for recognition. On EPIC-KITCHENS, we beat previous SOTA that utilises LLMs and significantly larger pre-training by 2.9% top-1 action recognition accuracy. Additionally, we show that TIM can be adapted for action detection, using dense multi-scale interval queries, outperforming SOTA on EPIC-KITCHENS-100 for most metrics, and showing strong performance on the Perception Test. Our ablations show the critical role of integrating the two modalities and modelling their time intervals in achieving this performance. Code and models at: https://github.com/JacobChalk/TIM

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) has increased significantly with users frequently asking questions to chatbots. In the time when information is readily accessible, it is crucial to stimulate and preserve human cognitive abilities and maintain strong reasoning skills. This paper addresses such challenges by promoting the use of hints as an alternative or a supplement to direct answers. We first introduce a manually constructed hint dataset, WikiHint, which is based on Wikipedia and includes 5,000 hints created for 1,000 questions. We then finetune open-source LLMs such as LLaMA-3.1 for hint generation in answer-aware and answeragnostic contexts. We assess the effectiveness of the hints with human participants who answer questions with and without the aid of hints. Additionally, we introduce a lightweight evaluation method, HintRank, to evaluate and rank hints in both answeraware and answer-agnostic settings. Our findings show that (a) the dataset helps generate more effective hints, (b) including answer information along with questions generally improves quality of generated hints, and (c) encoder-based models perform better than decoder-based models in hint ranking.

Users may strive to formulate an adequate textual query for their information need. Search engines assist the users by presenting query suggestions. To preserve the original search intent, suggestions should be context-aware and account for the previous queries issued by the user. Achieving context awareness is challenging due to data sparsity. We present a probabilistic suggestion model that is able to account for sequences of previous queries of arbitrary lengths. Our novel hierarchical recurrent encoder-decoder architecture allows the model to be sensitive to the order of queries in the context while avoiding data sparsity. Additionally, our model can suggest for rare, or long-tail, queries. The produced suggestions are synthetic and are sampled one word at a time, using computationally cheap decoding techniques. This is in contrast to current synthetic suggestion models relying upon machine learning pipelines and hand-engineered feature sets. Results show that it outperforms existing context-aware approaches in a next query prediction setting. In addition to query suggestion, our model is general enough to be used in a variety of other applications.

Temporal Action Detection (TAD) focuses on detecting pre-defined actions, while Moment Retrieval (MR) aims to identify the events described by open-ended natural language within untrimmed videos. Despite that they focus on different events, we observe they have a significant connection. For instance, most descriptions in MR involve multiple actions from TAD. In this paper, we aim to investigate the potential synergy between TAD and MR. Firstly, we propose a unified architecture, termed Unified Moment Detection (UniMD), for both TAD and MR. It transforms the inputs of the two tasks, namely actions for TAD or events for MR, into a common embedding space, and utilizes two novel query-dependent decoders to generate a uniform output of classification score and temporal segments. Secondly, we explore the efficacy of two task fusion learning approaches, pre-training and co-training, in order to enhance the mutual benefits between TAD and MR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed task fusion learning scheme enables the two tasks to help each other and outperform the separately trained counterparts. Impressively, UniMD achieves state-of-the-art results on three paired datasets Ego4D, Charades-STA, and ActivityNet. Our code is available at https://github.com/yingsen1/UniMD.

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.

In the pursuit of superior video-processing MLLMs, we have encountered a perplexing paradox: the "anti-scaling law", where more data and larger models lead to worse performance. This study unmasks the culprit: "temporal hacking", a phenomenon where models shortcut by fixating on select frames, missing the full video narrative. In this work, we systematically establish a comprehensive theory of temporal hacking, defining it from a reinforcement learning perspective, introducing the Temporal Perplexity (TPL) score to assess this misalignment, and proposing the Unhackable Temporal Rewarding (UTR) framework to mitigate the temporal hacking. Both theoretically and empirically, TPL proves to be a reliable indicator of temporal modeling quality, correlating strongly with frame activation patterns. Extensive experiments reveal that UTR not only counters temporal hacking but significantly elevates video comprehension capabilities. This work not only advances video-AI systems but also illuminates the critical importance of aligning proxy rewards with true objectives in MLLM development.

Representation and learning of commonsense knowledge is one of the foundational problems in the quest to enable deep language understanding. This issue is particularly challenging for understanding casual and correlational relationships between events. While this topic has received a lot of interest in the NLP community, research has been hindered by the lack of a proper evaluation framework. This paper attempts to address this problem with a new framework for evaluating story understanding and script learning: the 'Story Cloze Test'. This test requires a system to choose the correct ending to a four-sentence story. We created a new corpus of ~50k five-sentence commonsense stories, ROCStories, to enable this evaluation. This corpus is unique in two ways: (1) it captures a rich set of causal and temporal commonsense relations between daily events, and (2) it is a high quality collection of everyday life stories that can also be used for story generation. Experimental evaluation shows that a host of baselines and state-of-the-art models based on shallow language understanding struggle to achieve a high score on the Story Cloze Test. We discuss these implications for script and story learning, and offer suggestions for deeper language understanding.

A named entity recognition and classification plays the first and foremost important role in capturing semantics in data and anchoring in translation as well as downstream study for history. However, NER in historical text has faced challenges such as scarcity of annotated corpus, multilanguage variety, various noise, and different convention far different from the contemporary language model. This paper introduces Korean historical corpus (Diary of Royal secretary which is named SeungJeongWon) recorded over several centuries and recently added with named entity information as well as phrase markers which historians carefully annotated. We fined-tuned the language model on history corpus, conducted extensive comparative experiments using our language model and pretrained muti-language models. We set up the hypothesis of combination of time and annotation information and tested it based on statistical t test. Our finding shows that phrase markers clearly improve the performance of NER model in predicting unseen entity in documents written far different time period. It also shows that each of phrase marker and corpus-specific trained model does not improve the performance. We discuss the future research directions and practical strategies to decipher the history document.

This article presents an experiment in fine-tuning a pretrained causal language model (Meta's Llama 3.1 8B Instruct) for aiding in three fundamental tasks of philological research: chronological and geographic attribution as well as text restoration in ancient Greek inscriptions and documentary papyri. Using a prompt-based instruct approach, the fine-tuned models surpass the state of the art in key metrics. For inscriptions, the models achieve a lower average character error rate (CER) of 22.5% (vs. 26.3%), while closely matching top-1 accuracy (60.9% vs. 61.8%) and top-20 accuracy (77.5% vs. 78.3%) for sequences up to 10 characters. They also provide a practical advantage by ignoring spaces during reconstruction, aligning better with the scriptio continua typically used in ancient written artifacts. In geographic attribution, the model outperforms previous benchmarks with a top-1 accuracy of 75.0% (vs. 70.8%) and a top-3 accuracy of 83.7% (vs. 82.1%). For dating, it achieves an average deviation of 26.2 years (vs. 29.3) and a median deviation of 1 year (vs. 3) from the actual date range. The models also set new baselines for documentary papyri, with a CER of 16.3%, a top-1 accuracy of 71.3%, and top-20 of 85.0% in text reconstruction; a top-1 accuracy of 66.4% and top-3 of 79.9% in geographic attribution; and, in chronological attribution, a deviation of 21.7 years from the actual termini post/ante quem, with a median deviation of 0 years.

A reply to Drake (2013) "Early warning signals of stochastic switching" http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.0686

Machine learning is the science of credit assignment: finding patterns in observations that predict the consequences of actions and help to improve future performance. Credit assignment is also required for human understanding of how the world works, not only for individuals navigating daily life, but also for academic professionals like historians who interpret the present in light of past events. Here I focus on the history of modern artificial intelligence (AI) which is dominated by artificial neural networks (NNs) and deep learning, both conceptually closer to the old field of cybernetics than to what's been called AI since 1956 (e.g., expert systems and logic programming). A modern history of AI will emphasize breakthroughs outside of the focus of traditional AI text books, in particular, mathematical foundations of today's NNs such as the chain rule (1676), the first NNs (linear regression, circa 1800), and the first working deep learners (1965-). From the perspective of 2022, I provide a timeline of the -- in hindsight -- most important relevant events in the history of NNs, deep learning, AI, computer science, and mathematics in general, crediting those who laid foundations of the field. The text contains numerous hyperlinks to relevant overview sites from my AI Blog. It supplements my previous deep learning survey (2015) which provides hundreds of additional references. Finally, to round it off, I'll put things in a broader historic context spanning the time since the Big Bang until when the universe will be many times older than it is now.

We discover that DALLE-2 seems to have a hidden vocabulary that can be used to generate images with absurd prompts. For example, it seems that Apoploe vesrreaitais means birds and Contarra ccetnxniams luryca tanniounons (sometimes) means bugs or pests. We find that these prompts are often consistent in isolation but also sometimes in combinations. We present our black-box method to discover words that seem random but have some correspondence to visual concepts. This creates important security and interpretability challenges.

With the development in cognitive science and Large Language Models (LLMs), increasing connections have come to light between these two distinct fields. Building upon these connections, we propose a conjecture suggesting the existence of a duality between LLMs and Tulving's theory of memory. We identify a potential correspondence between Tulving's synergistic ecphory model (SEM) of retrieval and the emergent abilities observed in LLMs, serving as supporting evidence for our conjecture. Furthermore, we speculate that consciousness may be considered a form of emergent ability based on this duality. We also discuss how other theories of consciousness intersect with our research.

Understanding the content of events occurring in the video and their inherent temporal logic is crucial for video-text retrieval. However, web-crawled pre-training datasets often lack sufficient event information, and the widely adopted video-level cross-modal contrastive learning also struggles to capture detailed and complex video-text event alignment. To address these challenges, we make improvements from both data and model perspectives. In terms of pre-training data, we focus on supplementing the missing specific event content and event temporal transitions with the proposed event augmentation strategies. Based on the event-augmented data, we construct a novel Event-Aware Video-Text Retrieval model, ie, EA-VTR, which achieves powerful video-text retrieval ability through superior video event awareness. EA-VTR can efficiently encode frame-level and video-level visual representations simultaneously, enabling detailed event content and complex event temporal cross-modal alignment, ultimately enhancing the comprehensive understanding of video events. Our method not only significantly outperforms existing approaches on multiple datasets for Text-to-Video Retrieval and Video Action Recognition tasks, but also demonstrates superior event content perceive ability on Multi-event Video-Text Retrieval and Video Moment Retrieval tasks, as well as outstanding event temporal logic understanding ability on Test of Time task.

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

In a rapidly evolving knowledge landscape and the increasing adoption of large language models, a need has emerged to keep these models continuously updated with current events. While existing benchmarks evaluate general factual recall, they often overlook two critical aspects: the ability of models to integrate evolving knowledge through continual learning and the significant regional disparities in their performance. To address these gaps, we introduce the Timely Events Benchmark (TiEBe), a dataset containing over 11,000 question-answer pairs focused on globally and regionally significant events. TiEBe leverages structured retrospective data from Wikipedia, enabling continuous updates to assess LLMs' knowledge of evolving global affairs and their understanding of events across different regions. Our benchmark demonstrates that LLMs exhibit substantial geographic disparities in factual recall, emphasizing the need for more balanced global knowledge representation. Furthermore, TiEBe serves as a tool for evaluating continual learning strategies, providing insights into models' ability to acquire new information without forgetting past knowledge.

Cognitive textual and visual reasoning tasks, such as puzzles, series, and analogies, demand the ability to quickly reason, decipher, and evaluate patterns both textually and spatially. While LLMs and VLMs, through extensive training on large amounts of human-curated data, have attained a high level of pseudo-human intelligence in some common sense reasoning tasks, they still struggle with more complex reasoning tasks that require cognitive understanding. In this work, we introduce a new dataset, NTSEBench, designed to evaluate the cognitive multi-modal reasoning and problem-solving skills of large models. The dataset comprises 2,728 multiple-choice questions comprising of a total of 4,642 images across 26 categories sampled from the NTSE examination conducted nationwide in India, featuring both visual and textual general aptitude questions that do not rely on rote learning. We establish baselines on the dataset using state-of-the-art LLMs and VLMs. To facilitate a comparison between open source and propriety models, we propose four distinct modeling strategies to handle different modalities (text and images) in the dataset instances.

Understanding historical and cultural artifacts demands human expertise and advanced computational techniques, yet the process remains complex and time-intensive. While large multimodal models offer promising support, their evaluation and improvement require a standardized benchmark. To address this, we introduce TimeTravel, a benchmark of 10,250 expert-verified samples spanning 266 distinct cultures across 10 major historical regions. Designed for AI-driven analysis of manuscripts, artworks, inscriptions, and archaeological discoveries, TimeTravel provides a structured dataset and robust evaluation framework to assess AI models' capabilities in classification, interpretation, and historical comprehension. By integrating AI with historical research, TimeTravel fosters AI-powered tools for historians, archaeologists, researchers, and cultural tourists to extract valuable insights while ensuring technology contributes meaningfully to historical discovery and cultural heritage preservation. We evaluate contemporary AI models on TimeTravel, highlighting their strengths and identifying areas for improvement. Our goal is to establish AI as a reliable partner in preserving cultural heritage, ensuring that technological advancements contribute meaningfully to historical discovery. Our code is available at: https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/TimeTravel.

Causal precedence between biochemical interactions is crucial in the biomedical domain, because it transforms collections of individual interactions, e.g., bindings and phosphorylations, into the causal mechanisms needed to inform meaningful search and inference. Here, we analyze causal precedence in the biomedical domain as distinct from open-domain, temporal precedence. First, we describe a novel, hand-annotated text corpus of causal precedence in the biomedical domain. Second, we use this corpus to investigate a battery of models of precedence, covering rule-based, feature-based, and latent representation models. The highest-performing individual model achieved a micro F1 of 43 points, approaching the best performers on the simpler temporal-only precedence tasks. Feature-based and latent representation models each outperform the rule-based models, but their performance is complementary to one another. We apply a sieve-based architecture to capitalize on this lack of overlap, achieving a micro F1 score of 46 points.

This paper presents a new approach for code similarity on High Level programs. Our technique is based on Fast Dynamic Time Warping, that builds a warp path or points relation with local restrictions. The source code is represented into Time Series using the operators inside programming languages that makes possible the comparison. This makes possible subsequence detection that represent similar code instructions. In contrast with other code similarity algorithms, we do not make features extraction. The experiments show that two source codes are similar when their respective Time Series are similar.

Temporal and numerical expression understanding is of great importance in many downstream Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Information Retrieval (IR) tasks. However, much previous work covers only a few sub-types and focuses only on entity extraction, which severely limits the usability of identified mentions. In order for such entities to be useful in downstream scenarios, coverage and granularity of sub-types are important; and, even more so, providing resolution into concrete values that can be manipulated. Furthermore, most previous work addresses only a handful of languages. Here we describe a multi-lingual evaluation dataset - NTX - covering diverse temporal and numerical expressions across 14 languages and covering extraction, normalization, and resolution. Along with the dataset we provide a robust rule-based system as a strong baseline for comparisons against other models to be evaluated in this dataset. Data and code are available at https://aka.ms/NTX.

Human knowledge provides a formal understanding of the world. Knowledge graphs that represent structural relations between entities have become an increasingly popular research direction towards cognition and human-level intelligence. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of knowledge graph covering overall research topics about 1) knowledge graph representation learning, 2) knowledge acquisition and completion, 3) temporal knowledge graph, and 4) knowledge-aware applications, and summarize recent breakthroughs and perspective directions to facilitate future research. We propose a full-view categorization and new taxonomies on these topics. Knowledge graph embedding is organized from four aspects of representation space, scoring function, encoding models, and auxiliary information. For knowledge acquisition, especially knowledge graph completion, embedding methods, path inference, and logical rule reasoning, are reviewed. We further explore several emerging topics, including meta relational learning, commonsense reasoning, and temporal knowledge graphs. To facilitate future research on knowledge graphs, we also provide a curated collection of datasets and open-source libraries on different tasks. In the end, we have a thorough outlook on several promising research directions.

Large multimodal models extend the impressive capabilities of large language models by integrating multimodal understanding abilities. However, it is not clear how they can emulate the general intelligence and reasoning ability of humans. As recognizing patterns and abstracting concepts are key to general intelligence, we introduce PuzzleVQA, a collection of puzzles based on abstract patterns. With this dataset, we evaluate large multimodal models with abstract patterns based on fundamental concepts, including colors, numbers, sizes, and shapes. Through our experiments on state-of-the-art large multimodal models, we find that they are not able to generalize well to simple abstract patterns. Notably, even GPT-4V cannot solve more than half of the puzzles. To diagnose the reasoning challenges in large multimodal models, we progressively guide the models with our ground truth reasoning explanations for visual perception, inductive reasoning, and deductive reasoning. Our systematic analysis finds that the main bottlenecks of GPT-4V are weaker visual perception and inductive reasoning abilities. Through this work, we hope to shed light on the limitations of large multimodal models and how they can better emulate human cognitive processes in the future (Our data and code will be released publicly at https://github.com/declare-lab/LLM-PuzzleTest).

We introduce a new task, Video-and-Language Inference, for joint multimodal understanding of video and text. Given a video clip with aligned subtitles as premise, paired with a natural language hypothesis based on the video content, a model needs to infer whether the hypothesis is entailed or contradicted by the given video clip. A new large-scale dataset, named Violin (VIdeO-and-Language INference), is introduced for this task, which consists of 95,322 video-hypothesis pairs from 15,887 video clips, spanning over 582 hours of video. These video clips contain rich content with diverse temporal dynamics, event shifts, and people interactions, collected from two sources: (i) popular TV shows, and (ii) movie clips from YouTube channels. In order to address our new multimodal inference task, a model is required to possess sophisticated reasoning skills, from surface-level grounding (e.g., identifying objects and characters in the video) to in-depth commonsense reasoning (e.g., inferring causal relations of events in the video). We present a detailed analysis of the dataset and an extensive evaluation over many strong baselines, providing valuable insights on the challenges of this new task.

The UCR Time Series Archive - introduced in 2002, has become an important resource in the time series data mining community, with at least one thousand published papers making use of at least one data set from the archive. The original incarnation of the archive had sixteen data sets but since that time, it has gone through periodic expansions. The last expansion took place in the summer of 2015 when the archive grew from 45 to 85 data sets. This paper introduces and will focus on the new data expansion from 85 to 128 data sets. Beyond expanding this valuable resource, this paper offers pragmatic advice to anyone who may wish to evaluate a new algorithm on the archive. Finally, this paper makes a novel and yet actionable claim: of the hundreds of papers that show an improvement over the standard baseline (1-nearest neighbor classification), a large fraction may be mis-attributing the reasons for their improvement. Moreover, they may have been able to achieve the same improvement with a much simpler modification, requiring just a single line of code.

Readers can have different goals with respect to the text they are reading. Can these goals be decoded from the pattern of their eye movements over the text? In this work, we examine for the first time whether it is possible to decode two types of reading goals that are common in daily life: information seeking and ordinary reading. Using large scale eye-tracking data, we apply to this task a wide range of state-of-the-art models for eye movements and text that cover different architectural and data representation strategies, and further introduce a new model ensemble. We systematically evaluate these models at three levels of generalization: new textual item, new participant, and the combination of both. We find that eye movements contain highly valuable signals for this task. We further perform an error analysis which builds on prior empirical findings on differences between ordinary reading and information seeking and leverages rich textual annotations. This analysis reveals key properties of textual items and participant eye movements that contribute to the difficulty of the task.

Research on multi-modal contrastive learning strategies for audio and text has rapidly gained interest. Contrastively trained Audio-Language Models (ALMs), such as CLAP, which establish a unified representation across audio and language modalities, have enhanced the efficacy in various subsequent tasks by providing good text aligned audio encoders and vice versa. These improvements are evident in areas like zero-shot audio classification and audio retrieval, among others. However, the ability of these models to understand natural language and temporal relations is still a largely unexplored and open field for research. In this paper, we propose to equip the multi-modal ALMs with temporal understanding without loosing their inherent prior capabilities of audio-language tasks with a temporal instillation method TeminAL. We implement a two-stage training scheme TeminAL A & B, where the model first learns to differentiate between multiple sounds in TeminAL A, followed by a phase that instills a sense of time, thereby enhancing its temporal understanding in TeminAL B. This approach results in an average performance gain of 5.28% in temporal understanding on the ESC-50 dataset, while the model remains competitive in zero-shot retrieval and classification tasks on the AudioCap/Clotho datasets. We also note the lack of proper evaluation techniques for contrastive ALMs and propose a strategy for evaluating ALMs in zero-shot settings. The general-purpose zero-shot model evaluation strategy ZSTE, is used to evaluate various prior models. ZSTE demonstrates a general strategy to evaluate all ZS contrastive models. The model trained with TeminAL successfully outperforms current models on most downstream tasks.

Although LLMs are increasing the productivity of professional programmers, existing work shows that beginners struggle to prompt LLMs to solve text-to-code tasks. Why is this the case? This paper explores two competing hypotheses about the cause of student-LLM miscommunication: (1) students simply lack the technical vocabulary needed to write good prompts, and (2) students do not understand the extent of information that LLMs need to solve code generation tasks. We study (1) with a causal intervention experiment on technical vocabulary and (2) by analyzing graphs that abstract how students edit prompts and the different failures that they encounter. We find that substance beats style: a poor grasp of technical vocabulary is merely correlated with prompt failure; that the information content of prompts predicts success; that students get stuck making trivial edits; and more. Our findings have implications for the use of LLMs in programming education, and for efforts to make computing more accessible with LLMs.

In this paper, we propose a multi-modal search engine for interior design that combines visual and textual queries. The goal of our engine is to retrieve interior objects, e.g. furniture or wall clocks, that share visual and aesthetic similarities with the query. Our search engine allows the user to take a photo of a room and retrieve with a high recall a list of items identical or visually similar to those present in the photo. Additionally, it allows to return other items that aesthetically and stylistically fit well together. To achieve this goal, our system blends the results obtained using textual and visual modalities. Thanks to this blending strategy, we increase the average style similarity score of the retrieved items by 11%. Our work is implemented as a Web-based application and it is planned to be opened to the public.

Structured Complex Task Decomposition (SCTD) is the problem of breaking down a complex real-world task (such as planning a wedding) into a directed acyclic graph over individual steps that contribute to achieving the task, with edges specifying temporal dependencies between them. SCTD is an important component of assistive planning tools, and a challenge for commonsense reasoning systems. We probe how accurately SCTD can be done with the knowledge extracted from Large Language Models (LLMs). We introduce a high-quality human-annotated dataset for this problem and novel metrics to fairly assess performance of LLMs against several baselines. Our experiments reveal that LLMs are able to decompose complex tasks into individual steps effectively, with a relative improvement of 15% to 280% over the best baseline. We also propose a number of approaches to further improve their performance, with a relative improvement of 7% to 37% over the base model. However, we find that LLMs still struggle to predict pairwise temporal dependencies, which reveals a gap in their understanding of complex tasks.

Reasoning, as an essential ability for complex problem-solving, can provide back-end support for various real-world applications, such as medical diagnosis, negotiation, etc. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of cutting-edge research on reasoning with language model prompting. We introduce research works with comparisons and summaries and provide systematic resources to help beginners. We also discuss the potential reasons for emerging such reasoning abilities and highlight future research directions. Resources are available at https://github.com/zjunlp/Prompt4ReasoningPapers (updated periodically).

Video temporal grounding aims to pinpoint a video segment that matches the query description. Despite the recent advance in short-form videos (e.g., in minutes), temporal grounding in long videos (e.g., in hours) is still at its early stage. To address this challenge, a common practice is to employ a sliding window, yet can be inefficient and inflexible due to the limited number of frames within the window. In this work, we propose an end-to-end framework for fast temporal grounding, which is able to model an hours-long video with one-time network execution. Our pipeline is formulated in a coarse-to-fine manner, where we first extract context knowledge from non-overlapped video clips (i.e., anchors), and then supplement the anchors that highly response to the query with detailed content knowledge. Besides the remarkably high pipeline efficiency, another advantage of our approach is the capability of capturing long-range temporal correlation, thanks to modeling the entire video as a whole, and hence facilitates more accurate grounding. Experimental results suggest that, on the long-form video datasets MAD and Ego4d, our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-arts, and achieves 14.6times / 102.8times higher efficiency respectively. Project can be found at https://github.com/afcedf/SOONet.git.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) are ignorant of the up-to-date knowledge, such as LLaVA series, because they cannot be updated frequently due to the large amount of resources required, and therefore fail in many cases. For example, if a LVLM was released on January 2024, and it wouldn't know the detailed plot of the new movie Dune 2, which wasn't released until February 2024. To solve the problem, a promising solution is to provide LVLMs with up-to-date knowledge via internet search during inference, i.e., internet-augmented generation (IAG), which is already integrated in some closed-source commercial LVLMs such as GPT-4V. However, the specific mechanics underpinning them remain a mystery. In this paper, we propose a plug-and-play framework, for augmenting existing LVLMs in handling visual question answering (VQA) about up-to-date knowledge, dubbed UDKAG. A hierarchical filtering model is trained to effectively and efficiently find the most helpful content from the websites returned by a search engine to prompt LVLMs with up-to-date knowledge. To train the model and evaluate our framework's performance, we propose a pipeline to automatically generate news-related VQA samples to construct a dataset, dubbed UDK-VQA. A multi-model voting mechanism is introduced to label the usefulness of website/content for VQA samples to construct the training set. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, outperforming GPT-4V by about 25% in accuracy.

In this paper, we describe adaptation of a simple word guessing game that occupied the hearts and minds of people around the world. There are versions for all three Baltic countries and even several versions of each. We specifically pay attention to the Latvian version and look into how people form their guesses given any already uncovered hints. The paper analyses guess patterns, easy and difficult word characteristics, and player behaviour and response.

We introduce a new problem KTRL+F, a knowledge-augmented in-document search task that necessitates real-time identification of all semantic targets within a document with the awareness of external sources through a single natural query. This task addresses following unique challenges for in-document search: 1) utilizing knowledge outside the document for extended use of additional information about targets to bridge the semantic gap between the query and the targets, and 2) balancing between real-time applicability with the performance. We analyze various baselines in KTRL+F and find there are limitations of existing models, such as hallucinations, low latency, or difficulties in leveraging external knowledge. Therefore we propose a Knowledge-Augmented Phrase Retrieval model that shows a promising balance between speed and performance by simply augmenting external knowledge embedding in phrase embedding. Additionally, we conduct a user study to verify whether solving KTRL+F can enhance search experience of users. It demonstrates that even with our simple model users can reduce the time for searching with less queries and reduced extra visits to other sources for collecting evidence. We encourage the research community to work on KTRL+F to enhance more efficient in-document information access.

Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) is a crucial capability for video understanding models and plays a vital role in downstream tasks such as video browsing and editing. To effectively handle various tasks simultaneously and enable zero-shot prediction, there is a growing trend in employing video LLMs for VTG tasks. However, current video LLM-based methods rely exclusively on natural language generation, lacking the ability to model the clear structure inherent in videos, which restricts their effectiveness in tackling VTG tasks. To address this issue, this paper first formally introduces causal event modeling framework, which represents videos as sequences of events, and predict the current event using previous events, video inputs, and textural instructions. Each event consists of three components: timestamps, salient scores, and textual captions. We then propose a novel task-interleaved video LLM called TRACE to effectively implement the causal event modeling framework in practice. The TRACE processes visual frames, timestamps, salient scores, and text as distinct tasks, employing various encoders and decoding heads for each. Task tokens are arranged in an interleaved sequence according to the causal event modeling framework's formulation. Extensive experiments on various VTG tasks and datasets demonstrate the superior performance of TRACE compared to state-of-the-art video LLMs. Our model and code are available at https://github.com/gyxxyg/TRACE.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) focuses on extracting causal relations between events in texts. Existing methods for ECI primarily rely on causal features and external knowledge. However, these approaches fall short in two dimensions: (1) causal features between events in a text often lack explicit clues, and (2) external knowledge may introduce bias, while specific problems require tailored analyses. To address these issues, we propose SemDI - a simple and effective Semantic Dependency Inquiry Network for ECI. SemDI captures semantic dependencies within the context using a unified encoder. Then, it utilizes a Cloze Analyzer to generate a fill-in token based on comprehensive context understanding. Finally, this fill-in token is used to inquire about the causal relation between two events. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of SemDI, surpassing state-of-the-art methods on three widely used benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/hrlics/SemDI.

The ability to integrate context, including perceptual and temporal cues, plays a pivotal role in grounding the meaning of a linguistic utterance. In order to measure to what extent current vision-and-language models master this ability, we devise a new multimodal challenge, Image Retrieval from Contextual Descriptions (ImageCoDe). In particular, models are tasked with retrieving the correct image from a set of 10 minimally contrastive candidates based on a contextual description. As such, each description contains only the details that help distinguish between images. Because of this, descriptions tend to be complex in terms of syntax and discourse and require drawing pragmatic inferences. Images are sourced from both static pictures and video frames. We benchmark several state-of-the-art models, including both cross-encoders such as ViLBERT and bi-encoders such as CLIP, on ImageCoDe. Our results reveal that these models dramatically lag behind human performance: the best variant achieves an accuracy of 20.9 on video frames and 59.4 on static pictures, compared with 90.8 in humans. Furthermore, we experiment with new model variants that are better equipped to incorporate visual and temporal context into their representations, which achieve modest gains. Our hope is that ImageCoDE will foster progress in grounded language understanding by encouraging models to focus on fine-grained visual differences.

In a video, an object usually appears as the trajectory, i.e., it spans over a few spatial but longer temporal patches, that contains abundant spatiotemporal contexts. However, modern Video-Language BERTs (VDL-BERTs) neglect this trajectory characteristic that they usually follow image-language BERTs (IL-BERTs) to deploy the patch-to-word (P2W) attention that may over-exploit trivial spatial contexts and neglect significant temporal contexts. To amend this, we propose a novel TW-BERT to learn Trajectory-Word alignment by a newly designed trajectory-to-word (T2W) attention for solving video-language tasks. Moreover, previous VDL-BERTs usually uniformly sample a few frames into the model while different trajectories have diverse graininess, i.e., some trajectories span longer frames and some span shorter, and using a few frames will lose certain useful temporal contexts. However, simply sampling more frames will also make pre-training infeasible due to the largely increased training burdens. To alleviate the problem, during the fine-tuning stage, we insert a novel Hierarchical Frame-Selector (HFS) module into the video encoder. HFS gradually selects the suitable frames conditioned on the text context for the later cross-modal encoder to learn better trajectory-word alignments. By the proposed T2W attention and HFS, our TW-BERT achieves SOTA performances on text-to-video retrieval tasks, and comparable performances on video question-answering tasks with some VDL-BERTs trained on much more data. The code will be available in the supplementary material.

We introduce the concept of Automated Causal Discovery (AutoCD), defined as any system that aims to fully automate the application of causal discovery and causal reasoning methods. AutoCD's goal is to deliver all causal information that an expert human analyst would and answer a user's causal queries. We describe the architecture of such a platform, and illustrate its performance on synthetic data sets. As a case study, we apply it on temporal telecommunication data. The system is general and can be applied to a plethora of causal discovery problems.

Historically, artificial intelligence has drawn much inspiration from neuroscience to fuel advances in the field. However, current progress in reinforcement learning is largely focused on benchmark problems that fail to capture many of the aspects that are of interest in neuroscience today. We illustrate this point by extending a T-maze task from neuroscience for use with reinforcement learning algorithms, and show that state-of-the-art algorithms are not capable of solving this problem. Finally, we point out where insights from neuroscience could help explain some of the issues encountered.

In October 2007, a Research Proposal for the University of Sydney, Australia, the author suggested that biovie-physical phenomenon as `electrodynamic dependant biological vision', is governed by relativistic quantum laws and biovision. The phenomenon on the basis of `biovielectroluminescence', satisfies man/microbio/megabio/computer vision (MMMCV), as a robust candidate for physical and visual sciences. The general aim of this addendum is to present a refined text of Sections 1-3 of that proposal and highlighting the contents of its Appendix in form of a `Mechanisms' Section. We then briefly remind in an article aimed for December 2007, by appending two more equations into Section 3, a theoretical II-time scenario as a time model well-proposed for the phenomenon. The time model within the core of the proposal, plays a significant role in emphasizing the principle points on Objectives no. 1-8, Sub-hypothesis 3.1.2, mentioned in Article [arXiv:0710.0410]. It also expresses the time concept in terms of causing quantized energy f(|E|) of time |t|, emit in regard to shortening the probability of particle loci as predictable patterns of particle's un-occurred motion, a solution to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle (HUP) into a simplistic manner. We conclude that, practical frames via a time algorithm to this model, fixates such predictable patterns of motion of scenery bodies onto recordable observation points of a MMMCV system. It even suppresses/predicts superposition phenomena coming from a human subject and/or other bio-subjects for any decision making event, e.g., brainwave quantum patterns based on vision. Maintaining the existential probability of Riemann surfaces of II-time scenarios in the context of biovielectroluminescence, makes motion-prediction a possibility.

Understanding the abilities of LLMs to reason about natural language plans, such as instructional text and recipes, is critical to reliably using them in decision-making systems. A fundamental aspect of plans is the temporal order in which their steps needs to be executed, which reflects the underlying causal dependencies between them. We introduce CaT-Bench, a benchmark of Step Order Prediction questions, which test whether a step must necessarily occur before or after another in cooking recipe plans. We use this to evaluate how well frontier LLMs understand causal and temporal dependencies. We find that SOTA LLMs are underwhelming (best zero-shot is only 0.59 in F1), and are biased towards predicting dependence more often, perhaps relying on temporal order of steps as a heuristic. While prompting for explanations and using few-shot examples improve performance, the best F1 result is only 0.73. Further, human evaluation of explanations along with answer correctness show that, on average, humans do not agree with model reasoning. Surprisingly, we also find that explaining after answering leads to better performance than normal chain-of-thought prompting, and LLM answers are not consistent across questions about the same step pairs. Overall, results show that LLMs' ability to detect dependence between steps has significant room for improvement.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

False claims that have been previously fact-checked can still spread on social media. To mitigate their continual spread, detecting previously fact-checked claims is indispensable. Given a claim, existing works focus on providing evidence for detection by reranking candidate fact-checking articles (FC-articles) retrieved by BM25. However, these performances may be limited because they ignore the following characteristics of FC-articles: (1) claims are often quoted to describe the checked events, providing lexical information besides semantics; (2) sentence templates to introduce or debunk claims are common across articles, providing pattern information. Models that ignore the two aspects only leverage semantic relevance and may be misled by sentences that describe similar but irrelevant events. In this paper, we propose a novel reranker, MTM (Memory-enhanced Transformers for Matching) to rank FC-articles using key sentences selected with event (lexical and semantic) and pattern information. For event information, we propose a ROUGE-guided Transformer which is finetuned with regression of ROUGE. For pattern information, we generate pattern vectors for matching with sentences. By fusing event and pattern information, we select key sentences to represent an article and then predict if the article fact-checks the given claim using the claim, key sentences, and patterns. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that MTM outperforms existing methods. Human evaluation proves that MTM can capture key sentences for explanations. The code and the dataset are at https://github.com/ICTMCG/MTM.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for automatic time series analysis and reporting, which is a critical task across many domains, spanning healthcare, finance, climate, energy, and many more. In this paper, we propose a framework for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of LLMs on time series understanding, encompassing both univariate and multivariate forms. We introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of time series features, a critical framework that delineates various characteristics inherent in time series data. Leveraging this taxonomy, we have systematically designed and synthesized a diverse dataset of time series, embodying the different outlined features. This dataset acts as a solid foundation for assessing the proficiency of LLMs in comprehending time series. Our experiments shed light on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art LLMs in time series understanding, revealing which features these models readily comprehend effectively and where they falter. In addition, we uncover the sensitivity of LLMs to factors including the formatting of the data, the position of points queried within a series and the overall time series length.

We overview the history of primordial black hole (PBH) research from the first papers around 50 years ago to the present epoch. The history may be divided into four periods, the dividing lines being marked by three key developments: inflation on the theoretical front and the detection of microlensing events by the MACHO project and gravitational waves by the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA project on the observation front. However, they are also characterised by somewhat different focuses of research. The period 1967-1980 covered the groundbreaking work on PBH formation and evaporation. The period 1980-1996 mainly focussed on their formation, while the period 1996-2016 consolidated the work on formation but also collated the constraints on the PBH abundance. In the period 2016-2024 there was a shift of emphasis to the search for evidence for PBHs and - while opinions about the strength of the purported evidence vary - this has motivated more careful studies of some aspects of the subject. Certainly the soaring number of papers on PBHs in this last period indicates a growing interest in the topic.

Videos serve as a powerful medium to convey ideas, tell stories, and provide detailed instructions, especially through long-format tutorials. Such tutorials are valuable for learning new skills at one's own pace, yet they can be overwhelming due to their length and dense content. Viewers often seek specific information, like precise measurements or step-by-step execution details, making it essential to extract and summarize key segments efficiently. An intelligent, time-sensitive video assistant capable of summarizing and detecting highlights in long videos is highly sought after. Recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models offer promising solutions to develop such an assistant. Our research explores the use of multimodal models to enhance video summarization and step-by-step instruction generation within specific domains. These models need to understand temporal events and relationships among actions across video frames. Our approach focuses on fine-tuning TimeChat to improve its performance in specific domains: cooking and medical procedures. By training the model on domain-specific datasets like Tasty for cooking and MedVidQA for medical procedures, we aim to enhance its ability to generate concise, accurate summaries of instructional videos. We curate and restructure these datasets to create high-quality video-centric instruction data. Our findings indicate that when finetuned on domain-specific procedural data, TimeChat can significantly improve the extraction and summarization of key instructional steps in long-format videos. This research demonstrates the potential of specialized multimodal models to assist with practical tasks by providing personalized, step-by-step guidance tailored to the unique aspects of each domain.

We present WeaverBird, an intelligent dialogue system designed specifically for the finance domain. Our system harnesses a large language model of GPT architecture that has been tuned using extensive corpora of finance-related text. As a result, our system possesses the capability to understand complex financial queries, such as "How should I manage my investments during inflation?", and provide informed responses. Furthermore, our system incorporates a local knowledge base and a search engine to retrieve relevant information. The final responses are conditioned on the search results and include proper citations to the sources, thus enjoying an enhanced credibility. Through a range of finance-related questions, we have demonstrated the superior performance of our system compared to other models. To experience our system firsthand, users can interact with our live demo at https://weaverbird.ttic.edu, as well as watch our 2-min video illustration at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyV2qQkX6Tc.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Hallucination has emerged as the most vulnerable aspect of contemporary Large Language Models (LLMs). In this paper, we introduce the Sorry, Come Again (SCA) prompting, aimed to avoid LLM hallucinations by enhancing comprehension through: (i) optimal paraphrasing and (ii) injecting [PAUSE] tokens to delay LLM generation. First, we provide an in-depth analysis of linguistic nuances: formality, readability, and concreteness of prompts for 21 LLMs, and elucidate how these nuances contribute to hallucinated generation. Prompts with lower readability, formality, or concreteness pose comprehension challenges for LLMs, similar to those faced by humans. In such scenarios, an LLM tends to speculate and generate content based on its imagination (associative memory) to fill these information gaps. Although these speculations may occasionally align with factual information, their accuracy is not assured, often resulting in hallucination. Recent studies reveal that an LLM often neglects the middle sections of extended prompts, a phenomenon termed as lost in the middle. While a specific paraphrase may suit one LLM, the same paraphrased version may elicit a different response from another LLM. Therefore, we propose an optimal paraphrasing technique to identify the most comprehensible paraphrase of a given prompt, evaluated using Integrated Gradient (and its variations) to guarantee that the LLM accurately processes all words. While reading lengthy sentences, humans often pause at various points to better comprehend the meaning read thus far. We have fine-tuned an LLM with injected [PAUSE] tokens, allowing the LLM to pause while reading lengthier prompts. This has brought several key contributions: (i) determining the optimal position to inject [PAUSE], (ii) determining the number of [PAUSE] tokens to be inserted, and (iii) introducing reverse proxy tuning to fine-tune the LLM for [PAUSE] insertion.

Generating concise summaries of news events is a challenging natural language processing task. While journalists often curate timelines to highlight key sub-events, newcomers to a news event face challenges in catching up on its historical context. In this paper, we address this need by introducing the task of background news summarization, which complements each timeline update with a background summary of relevant preceding events. We construct a dataset by merging existing timeline datasets and asking human annotators to write a background summary for each timestep of each news event. We establish strong baseline performance using state-of-the-art summarization systems and propose a query-focused variant to generate background summaries. To evaluate background summary quality, we present a question-answering-based evaluation metric, Background Utility Score (BUS), which measures the percentage of questions about a current event timestep that a background summary answers. Our experiments show the effectiveness of instruction fine-tuned systems such as Flan-T5, in addition to strong zero-shot performance using GPT-3.5.

This paper contains what the Georgetown InfoSense group has done in regard to solving the challenges presented by TREC iKAT 2023. Our submitted runs outperform the median runs by a significant margin, exhibiting superior performance in nDCG across various cut numbers and in overall success rate. Our approach uses a Generate-Retrieve-Generate method, which we've found to greatly outpace Retrieve-Then-Generate approaches for the purposes of iKAT. Our solution involves the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for initial answers, answer grounding by BM25, passage quality filtering by logistic regression, and answer generation by LLMs again. We leverage several purpose-built Language Models, including BERT, Chat-based, and text-to-transfer-based models, for text understanding, classification, generation, and summarization. The official results of the TREC evaluation contradict our initial self-evaluation, which may suggest that a decrease in the reliance on our retrieval and classification methods is better. Nonetheless, our findings suggest that the sequence of involving these different components matters, where we see an essentiality of using LLMs before using search engines.

We propose prioritized unit propagation with periodic resetting, which is a simple but surprisingly effective algorithm for solving random SAT instances that are meant to be hard. In particular, an evaluation on the Random Track of the 2017 and 2018 SAT competitions shows that a basic prototype of this simple idea already ranks at second place in both years. We share this observation in the hope that it helps the SAT community better understand the hardness of random instances used in competitions and inspire other interesting ideas on SAT solving.

In the video-language domain, recent works in leveraging zero-shot Large Language Model-based reasoning for video understanding have become competitive challengers to previous end-to-end models. However, long video understanding presents unique challenges due to the complexity of reasoning over extended timespans, even for zero-shot LLM-based approaches. The challenge of information redundancy in long videos prompts the question of what specific information is essential for large language models (LLMs) and how to leverage them for complex spatial-temporal reasoning in long-form video analysis. We propose a framework VideoINSTA, i.e. INformative Spatial-TemporAl Reasoning for zero-shot long-form video understanding. VideoINSTA contributes (1) a zero-shot framework for long video understanding using LLMs; (2) an event-based temporal reasoning and content-based spatial reasoning approach for LLMs to reason over spatial-temporal information in videos; (3) a self-reflective information reasoning scheme balancing temporal factors based on information sufficiency and prediction confidence. Our model significantly improves the state-of-the-art on three long video question-answering benchmarks: EgoSchema, NextQA, and IntentQA, and the open question answering dataset ActivityNetQA. The code is released here: https://github.com/mayhugotong/VideoINSTA.