Daily Papers

User interface understanding with vision-language models has received much attention due to its potential for enabling next-generation software automation. However, existing UI datasets either only provide large-scale context-free element annotations or contextualized functional descriptions for elements at a much smaller scale. In this work, we propose the pipeline for automatically annotating UI elements with detailed functionality descriptions at scale. Specifically, we leverage large language models (LLMs) to infer element functionality by comparing the UI content changes before and after simulated interactions with specific UI elements. To improve annotation quality, we propose LLM-aided rejection and verification, eliminating invalid and incorrect annotations without human labor. We construct an -704k dataset using the proposed pipeline, featuring multi-resolution, multi-device screenshots, diverse data domains, and detailed functionality annotations that have never been provided by previous datasets. Human evaluation shows that the AutoGUI pipeline achieves annotation correctness comparable to trained human annotators. Extensive experimental results show that our -704k dataset remarkably enhances VLM's UI grounding capabilities, exhibits significant scaling effects, and outperforms existing web pre-training data types. We envision AutoGUI as a scalable pipeline for generating massive data to build GUI-oriented VLMs. AutoGUI dataset can be viewed at this anonymous URL: https://autogui-project.github.io/.

Recent efforts have augmented language models (LMs) with external tools or environments, leading to the development of language agents that can reason and act. However, most of these agents rely on few-shot prompting techniques with off-the-shelf LMs. In this paper, we investigate and argue for the overlooked direction of fine-tuning LMs to obtain language agents. Using a setup of question answering (QA) with a Google search API, we explore a variety of base LMs, prompting methods, fine-tuning data, and QA tasks, and find language agents are consistently improved after fine-tuning their backbone LMs. For example, fine-tuning Llama2-7B with 500 agent trajectories generated by GPT-4 leads to a 77% HotpotQA performance increase. Furthermore, we propose FireAct, a novel approach to fine-tuning LMs with trajectories from multiple tasks and prompting methods, and show having more diverse fine-tuning data can further improve agents. Along with other findings regarding scaling effects, robustness, generalization, efficiency and cost, our work establishes comprehensive benefits of fine-tuning LMs for agents, and provides an initial set of experimental designs, insights, as well as open questions toward language agent fine-tuning.

Recent advancements in language models (LMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in semantic understanding and contextual modeling, which have flourished in generative speech enhancement (SE). However, many LM-based SE approaches primarily focus on semantic information, often neglecting the critical role of acoustic information, which leads to acoustic inconsistency after enhancement and limited generalization across diverse SE tasks. In this paper, we introduce LLaSE-G1, a LLaMA-based language model that incentivizes generalization capabilities for speech enhancement. LLaSE-G1 offers the following key contributions: First, to mitigate acoustic inconsistency, LLaSE-G1 employs continuous representations from WavLM as input and predicts speech tokens from X-Codec2, maximizing acoustic preservation. Second, to promote generalization capability, LLaSE-G1 introduces dual-channel inputs and outputs, unifying multiple SE tasks without requiring task-specific IDs. Third, LLaSE-G1 outperforms prior task-specific discriminative and generative SE models, demonstrating scaling effects at test time and emerging capabilities for unseen SE tasks. Additionally, we release our code and models to support further research in this area.

We introduce WildTeaming, an automatic LLM safety red-teaming framework that mines in-the-wild user-chatbot interactions to discover 5.7K unique clusters of novel jailbreak tactics, and then composes multiple tactics for systematic exploration of novel jailbreaks. Compared to prior work that performed red-teaming via recruited human workers, gradient-based optimization, or iterative revision with LLMs, our work investigates jailbreaks from chatbot users who were not specifically instructed to break the system. WildTeaming reveals previously unidentified vulnerabilities of frontier LLMs, resulting in up to 4.6x more diverse and successful adversarial attacks compared to state-of-the-art jailbreak methods. While many datasets exist for jailbreak evaluation, very few open-source datasets exist for jailbreak training, as safety training data has been closed even when model weights are open. With WildTeaming we create WildJailbreak, a large-scale open-source synthetic safety dataset with 262K vanilla (direct request) and adversarial (complex jailbreak) prompt-response pairs. To mitigate exaggerated safety behaviors, WildJailbreak provides two contrastive types of queries: 1) harmful queries (vanilla & adversarial) and 2) benign queries that resemble harmful queries in form but contain no harm. As WildJailbreak considerably upgrades the quality and scale of existing safety resources, it uniquely enables us to examine the scaling effects of data and the interplay of data properties and model capabilities during safety training. Through extensive experiments, we identify the training properties that enable an ideal balance of safety behaviors: appropriate safeguarding without over-refusal, effective handling of vanilla and adversarial queries, and minimal, if any, decrease in general capabilities. All components of WildJailbeak contribute to achieving balanced safety behaviors of models.

Recent work has shown that either (1) increasing the input length or (2) increasing model size can improve the performance of Transformer-based neural models. In this paper, we present a new model, called LongT5, with which we explore the effects of scaling both the input length and model size at the same time. Specifically, we integrated attention ideas from long-input transformers (ETC), and adopted pre-training strategies from summarization pre-training (PEGASUS) into the scalable T5 architecture. The result is a new attention mechanism we call {\em Transient Global} (TGlobal), which mimics ETC's local/global attention mechanism, but without requiring additional side-inputs. We are able to achieve state-of-the-art results on several summarization tasks and outperform the original T5 models on question answering tasks.

The data mixture for large language model pre-training significantly impacts performance, yet how to determine an effective mixture remains unclear. We propose RegMix to automatically identify a high-performing data mixture by formulating it as a regression task. RegMix involves training a set of small models with diverse data mixtures and fitting a regression model to predict their performance given their respective mixtures. With the fitted regression model, we simulate the top-ranked mixture and use it to train a large-scale model with orders of magnitude more compute. To empirically validate RegMix, we train 512 models with 1M parameters for 1B tokens of different mixtures to fit the regression model and find the optimal mixture. Using this mixture we train a 1B parameter model for 25B tokens (i.e. 1000x larger and 25x longer) which we find performs best among 64 candidate 1B parameter models with other mixtures. Further, our method demonstrates superior performance compared to human selection and achieves results that match or surpass DoReMi, while utilizing only 10% of the compute budget. Our experiments also show that (1) Data mixtures significantly impact performance with single-task performance variations of up to 14.6%; (2) Web corpora rather than data perceived as high-quality like Wikipedia have the strongest positive correlation with downstream performance; (3) Domains interact in complex ways often contradicting common sense, thus automatic approaches like RegMix are needed; (4) Data mixture effects transcend scaling laws, and our approach captures the complexity by considering all domains together. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/regmix.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

Scaling up language models has been empirically shown to improve performance on a wide range of downstream tasks. However, if we were to observe worse performance as a function of scale ("inverse scaling") on certain tasks, this would indicate that scaling can also encourage behaviors that are misaligned with human preferences. The Inverse Scaling Prize (McKenzie et al. 2022) identified eleven such inverse scaling tasks, evaluated on models of up to 280B parameters and up to 500 zettaFLOPs of training compute. This paper takes a closer look at these inverse scaling tasks. We evaluate models of up to 540B parameters, trained on five times more compute than those evaluated in the Inverse Scaling Prize. With this increased range of model sizes and training compute, only four out of the eleven tasks remain inverse scaling. Six out of the eleven tasks exhibit "U-shaped scaling", where performance decreases up to a certain size, and then increases again up to the largest model evaluated (the one remaining task displays positive scaling). In addition, we find that 1-shot examples and chain-of-thought can help mitigate undesirable scaling patterns even further. U-shaped scaling suggests that the inverse scaling trend observed in McKenzie et al. (2022) may not continue to hold for larger models, which we attribute to the presence of distractor tasks that only sufficiently large models can avoid.

We introduce SUPIR (Scaling-UP Image Restoration), a groundbreaking image restoration method that harnesses generative prior and the power of model scaling up. Leveraging multi-modal techniques and advanced generative prior, SUPIR marks a significant advance in intelligent and realistic image restoration. As a pivotal catalyst within SUPIR, model scaling dramatically enhances its capabilities and demonstrates new potential for image restoration. We collect a dataset comprising 20 million high-resolution, high-quality images for model training, each enriched with descriptive text annotations. SUPIR provides the capability to restore images guided by textual prompts, broadening its application scope and potential. Moreover, we introduce negative-quality prompts to further improve perceptual quality. We also develop a restoration-guided sampling method to suppress the fidelity issue encountered in generative-based restoration. Experiments demonstrate SUPIR's exceptional restoration effects and its novel capacity to manipulate restoration through textual prompts.

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the model is exposed to repeated data at the sentence, paragraph, or document level. Some works have reported substantial negative performance effects of this repeated data. In this paper we attempt to study repeated data systematically and to understand its effects mechanistically. To do this, we train a family of models where most of the data is unique but a small fraction of it is repeated many times. We find a strong double descent phenomenon, in which repeated data can lead test loss to increase midway through training. A predictable range of repetition frequency leads to surprisingly severe degradation in performance. For instance, performance of an 800M parameter model can be degraded to that of a 2x smaller model (400M params) by repeating 0.1% of the data 100 times, despite the other 90% of the training tokens remaining unique. We suspect there is a range in the middle where the data can be memorized and doing so consumes a large fraction of the model's capacity, and this may be where the peak of degradation occurs. Finally, we connect these observations to recent mechanistic interpretability work - attempting to reverse engineer the detailed computations performed by the model - by showing that data repetition disproportionately damages copying and internal structures associated with generalization, such as induction heads, providing a possible mechanism for the shift from generalization to memorization. Taken together, these results provide a hypothesis for why repeating a relatively small fraction of data in large language models could lead to disproportionately large harms to performance.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

Over the past few years, the advancement of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has captured the wide interest of researchers, leading to numerous innovations to enhance MLLMs' comprehension. In this paper, we present AdaptVision, a multimodal large language model specifically designed to dynamically process input images at varying resolutions. We hypothesize that the requisite number of visual tokens for the model is contingent upon both the resolution and content of the input image. Generally, natural images with a lower information density can be effectively interpreted by the model using fewer visual tokens at reduced resolutions. In contrast, images containing textual content, such as documents with rich text, necessitate a higher number of visual tokens for accurate text interpretation due to their higher information density. Building on this insight, we devise a dynamic image partitioning module that adjusts the number of visual tokens according to the size and aspect ratio of images. This method mitigates distortion effects that arise from resizing images to a uniform resolution and dynamically optimizing the visual tokens input to the LLMs. Our model is capable of processing images with resolutions up to 1008times 1008. Extensive experiments across various datasets demonstrate that our method achieves impressive performance in handling vision-language tasks in both natural and text-related scenes. The source code and dataset are now publicly available at https://github.com/harrytea/AdaptVision.

Low-precision training is considered an effective strategy for reducing both training and downstream inference costs. Previous scaling laws for precision mainly focus on integer quantization, which pay less attention to the constituents in floating-point quantization and thus cannot well fit the LLM losses in this scenario. In contrast, while floating-point quantization training is more commonly implemented in production, the research on it has been relatively superficial. In this paper, we thoroughly explore the effects of floating-point quantization targets, exponent bits, mantissa bits, and the calculation granularity of the scaling factor in floating-point quantization training performance of LLM models. While presenting an accurate floating-point quantization unified scaling law, we also provide valuable suggestions for the community: (1) Exponent bits contribute slightly more to the model performance than mantissa bits. We provide the optimal exponent-mantissa bit ratio for different bit numbers, which is available for future reference by hardware manufacturers; (2) We discover the formation of the critical data size in low-precision LLM training. Too much training data exceeding the critical data size will inversely bring in degradation of LLM performance; (3) The optimal floating-point quantization precision is directly proportional to the computational power, but within a wide computational power range, we estimate that the best cost-performance precision lies between 4-8 bits.

Speech Language Models (SLMs) aim to learn language from raw audio, without textual resources. Despite significant advances, our current models exhibit weak syntax and semantic abilities. However, if the scaling properties of neural language models hold for the speech modality, these abilities will improve as the amount of compute used for training increases. In this paper, we use models of this scaling behavior to estimate the scale at which our current methods will yield a SLM with the English proficiency of text-based Large Language Models (LLMs). We establish a strong correlation between pre-training loss and downstream syntactic and semantic performance in SLMs and LLMs, which results in predictable scaling of linguistic performance. We show that the linguistic performance of SLMs scales up to three orders of magnitude more slowly than that of text-based LLMs. Additionally, we study the benefits of synthetic data designed to boost semantic understanding and the effects of coarser speech tokenization.

Sparse autoencoders provide a promising unsupervised approach for extracting interpretable features from a language model by reconstructing activations from a sparse bottleneck layer. Since language models learn many concepts, autoencoders need to be very large to recover all relevant features. However, studying the properties of autoencoder scaling is difficult due to the need to balance reconstruction and sparsity objectives and the presence of dead latents. We propose using k-sparse autoencoders [Makhzani and Frey, 2013] to directly control sparsity, simplifying tuning and improving the reconstruction-sparsity frontier. Additionally, we find modifications that result in few dead latents, even at the largest scales we tried. Using these techniques, we find clean scaling laws with respect to autoencoder size and sparsity. We also introduce several new metrics for evaluating feature quality based on the recovery of hypothesized features, the explainability of activation patterns, and the sparsity of downstream effects. These metrics all generally improve with autoencoder size. To demonstrate the scalability of our approach, we train a 16 million latent autoencoder on GPT-4 activations for 40 billion tokens. We release training code and autoencoders for open-source models, as well as a visualizer.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) has emerged as a widely adopted technique for compressing and accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs). The major challenge in LLM quantization is that uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions can expand the quantization range, thereby reducing bit precision for most values. Recent methods attempt to eliminate outliers and balance inter-channel differences by employing linear transformations; however, they remain heuristic and are often overlook optimizing the data distribution across the entire quantization space.In this paper, we introduce Quantization Space Utilization Rate (QSUR), a novel metric that effectively assesses the quantizability of transformed data by measuring the space utilization of the data in the quantization space. We complement QSUR with mathematical derivations that examine the effects and limitations of various transformations, guiding our development of Orthogonal and Scaling Transformation-based Quantization (OSTQuant). OSQuant employs a learnable equivalent transformation, consisting of an orthogonal transformation and a scaling transformation, to optimize the distributions of weights and activations across the entire quantization space. Futhermore, we propose the KL-Top loss function, designed to mitigate noise during optimization while retaining richer semantic information within the limited calibration data imposed by PTQ. OSTQuant outperforms existing work on various LLMs and benchmarks. In the W4-only setting, it retains 99.5\% of the floating-point accuracy. In the more challenging W4A4KV4 configuration, OSTQuant reduces the performance gap by 32\% on the LLaMA-3-8B model compared to state-of-the-art methods. https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant{https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant}.

Recent studies have shown that making a model spend more time thinking through longer Chain of Thoughts (CoTs) enables it to gain significant improvements in complex reasoning tasks. While current researches continue to explore the benefits of increasing test-time compute by extending the CoT lengths of Large Language Models (LLMs), we are concerned about a potential issue hidden behind the current pursuit of test-time scaling: Would excessively scaling the CoT length actually bring adverse effects to a model's reasoning performance? Our explorations on mathematical reasoning tasks reveal an unexpected finding that scaling with longer CoTs can indeed impair the reasoning performance of LLMs in certain domains. Moreover, we discover that there exists an optimal scaled length distribution that differs across different domains. Based on these insights, we propose a Thinking-Optimal Scaling strategy. Our method first uses a small set of seed data with varying response length distributions to teach the model to adopt different reasoning efforts for deep thinking. Then, the model selects its shortest correct response under different reasoning efforts on additional problems for self-improvement. Our self-improved models built upon Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct outperform other distillation-based 32B o1-like models across various math benchmarks, and achieve performance on par with QwQ-32B-Preview.

Deep learning approaches for black-box modelling of audio effects have shown promise, however, the majority of existing work focuses on nonlinear effects with behaviour on relatively short time-scales, such as guitar amplifiers and distortion. While recurrent and convolutional architectures can theoretically be extended to capture behaviour at longer time scales, we show that simply scaling the width, depth, or dilation factor of existing architectures does not result in satisfactory performance when modelling audio effects such as fuzz and dynamic range compression. To address this, we propose the integration of time-varying feature-wise linear modulation into existing temporal convolutional backbones, an approach that enables learnable adaptation of the intermediate activations. We demonstrate that our approach more accurately captures long-range dependencies for a range of fuzz and compressor implementations across both time and frequency domain metrics. We provide sound examples, source code, and pretrained models to faciliate reproducibility.

We present a state-of-the-art speech recognition system developed using end-to-end deep learning. Our architecture is significantly simpler than traditional speech systems, which rely on laboriously engineered processing pipelines; these traditional systems also tend to perform poorly when used in noisy environments. In contrast, our system does not need hand-designed components to model background noise, reverberation, or speaker variation, but instead directly learns a function that is robust to such effects. We do not need a phoneme dictionary, nor even the concept of a "phoneme." Key to our approach is a well-optimized RNN training system that uses multiple GPUs, as well as a set of novel data synthesis techniques that allow us to efficiently obtain a large amount of varied data for training. Our system, called Deep Speech, outperforms previously published results on the widely studied Switchboard Hub5'00, achieving 16.0% error on the full test set. Deep Speech also handles challenging noisy environments better than widely used, state-of-the-art commercial speech systems.

In diffusion models, UNet is the most popular network backbone, since its long skip connects (LSCs) to connect distant network blocks can aggregate long-distant information and alleviate vanishing gradient. Unfortunately, UNet often suffers from unstable training in diffusion models which can be alleviated by scaling its LSC coefficients smaller. However, theoretical understandings of the instability of UNet in diffusion models and also the performance improvement of LSC scaling remain absent yet. To solve this issue, we theoretically show that the coefficients of LSCs in UNet have big effects on the stableness of the forward and backward propagation and robustness of UNet. Specifically, the hidden feature and gradient of UNet at any layer can oscillate and their oscillation ranges are actually large which explains the instability of UNet training. Moreover, UNet is also provably sensitive to perturbed input, and predicts an output distant from the desired output, yielding oscillatory loss and thus oscillatory gradient. Besides, we also observe the theoretical benefits of the LSC coefficient scaling of UNet in the stableness of hidden features and gradient and also robustness. Finally, inspired by our theory, we propose an effective coefficient scaling framework ScaleLong that scales the coefficients of LSC in UNet and better improves the training stability of UNet. Experimental results on four famous datasets show that our methods are superior to stabilize training and yield about 1.5x training acceleration on different diffusion models with UNet or UViT backbones. Code: https://github.com/sail-sg/ScaleLong

How do large language models (LLMs) develop and evolve over the course of training? How do these patterns change as models scale? To answer these questions, we introduce Pythia, a suite of 16 LLMs all trained on public data seen in the exact same order and ranging in size from 70M to 12B parameters. We provide public access to 154 checkpoints for each one of the 16 models, alongside tools to download and reconstruct their exact training dataloaders for further study. We intend Pythia to facilitate research in many areas, and we present several case studies including novel results in memorization, term frequency effects on few-shot performance, and reducing gender bias. We demonstrate that this highly controlled setup can be used to yield novel insights toward LLMs and their training dynamics. Trained models, analysis code, training code, and training data can be found at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia.

The advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) for domain applications in fields such as materials science and engineering depends on the development of fine-tuning strategies that adapt models for specialized, technical capabilities. In this work, we explore the effects of Continued Pretraining (CPT), Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), and various preference-based optimization approaches, including Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and Odds Ratio Preference Optimization (ORPO), on fine-tuned LLM performance. Our analysis shows how these strategies influence model outcomes and reveals that the merging of multiple fine-tuned models can lead to the emergence of capabilities that surpass the individual contributions of the parent models. We find that model merging leads to new functionalities that neither parent model could achieve alone, leading to improved performance in domain-specific assessments. Experiments with different model architectures are presented, including Llama 3.1 8B and Mistral 7B models, where similar behaviors are observed. Exploring whether the results hold also for much smaller models, we use a tiny LLM with 1.7 billion parameters and show that very small LLMs do not necessarily feature emergent capabilities under model merging, suggesting that model scaling may be a key component. In open-ended yet consistent chat conversations between a human and AI models, our assessment reveals detailed insights into how different model variants perform and show that the smallest model achieves a high intelligence score across key criteria including reasoning depth, creativity, clarity, and quantitative precision. Other experiments include the development of image generation prompts based on disparate biological material design concepts, to create new microstructures, architectural concepts, and urban design based on biological materials-inspired construction principles.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

There have been a lot of interest in the scaling properties of Transformer models. However, not much has been done on the front of investigating the effect of scaling properties of different inductive biases and model architectures. Do model architectures scale differently? If so, how does inductive bias affect scaling behaviour? How does this influence upstream (pretraining) and downstream (transfer)? This paper conducts a systematic study of scaling behaviour of ten diverse model architectures such as Transformers, Switch Transformers, Universal Transformers, Dynamic convolutions, Performers, and recently proposed MLP-Mixers. Via extensive experiments, we show that (1) architecture is an indeed an important consideration when performing scaling and (2) the best performing model can fluctuate at different scales. We believe that the findings outlined in this work has significant implications to how model architectures are currently evaluated in the community.

Many studies on scaling laws consider basic factors such as model size, model shape, dataset size, and compute power. These factors are easily tunable and represent the fundamental elements of any machine learning setup. But researchers have also employed more complex factors to estimate the test error and generalization performance with high predictability. These factors are generally specific to the domain or application. For example, feature diversity was primarily used for promoting syn-to-real transfer by Chen et al. (2021). With numerous scaling factors defined in previous works, it would be interesting to investigate how these factors may affect overall generalization performance in the context of self-supervised learning with CNN models. How do individual factors promote generalization, which includes varying depth, width, or the number of training epochs with early stopping? For example, does higher feature diversity result in higher accuracy held in complex settings other than a syn-to-real transfer? How do these factors depend on each other? We found that the last layer is the most diversified throughout the training. However, while the model's test error decreases with increasing epochs, its diversity drops. We also discovered that diversity is directly related to model width.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Perception is often viewed as a process that transforms physical variables, external to an observer, into internal psychological variables. Such a process can be modeled by a function coined perceptual scale. The perceptual scale can be deduced from psychophysical measurements that consist in comparing the relative differences between stimuli (i.e. difference scaling experiments). However, this approach is often overlooked by the modeling and experimentation communities. Here, we demonstrate the value of measuring the perceptual scale of classical (spatial frequency, orientation) and less classical physical variables (interpolation between textures) by embedding it in recent probabilistic modeling of perception. First, we show that the assumption that an observer has an internal representation of univariate parameters such as spatial frequency or orientation while stimuli are high-dimensional does not lead to contradictory predictions when following the theoretical framework. Second, we show that the measured perceptual scale corresponds to the transduction function hypothesized in this framework. In particular, we demonstrate that it is related to the Fisher information of the generative model that underlies perception and we test the predictions given by the generative model of different stimuli in a set a of difference scaling experiments. Our main conclusion is that the perceptual scale is mostly driven by the stimulus power spectrum. Finally, we propose that this measure of perceptual scale is a way to push further the notion of perceptual distances by estimating the perceptual geometry of images i.e. the path between images instead of simply the distance between those.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Scale has become a main ingredient in obtaining strong machine learning models. As a result, understanding a model's scaling properties is key to effectively designing both the right training setup as well as future generations of architectures. In this work, we argue that scale and training research has been needlessly complex due to reliance on the cosine schedule, which prevents training across different lengths for the same model size. We investigate the training behavior of a direct alternative - constant learning rate and cooldowns - and find that it scales predictably and reliably similar to cosine. Additionally, we show that stochastic weight averaging yields improved performance along the training trajectory, without additional training costs, across different scales. Importantly, with these findings we demonstrate that scaling experiments can be performed with significantly reduced compute and GPU hours by utilizing fewer but reusable training runs.

In this work we analyze strategies for convolutional neural network scaling; that is, the process of scaling a base convolutional network to endow it with greater computational complexity and consequently representational power. Example scaling strategies may include increasing model width, depth, resolution, etc. While various scaling strategies exist, their tradeoffs are not fully understood. Existing analysis typically focuses on the interplay of accuracy and flops (floating point operations). Yet, as we demonstrate, various scaling strategies affect model parameters, activations, and consequently actual runtime quite differently. In our experiments we show the surprising result that numerous scaling strategies yield networks with similar accuracy but with widely varying properties. This leads us to propose a simple fast compound scaling strategy that encourages primarily scaling model width, while scaling depth and resolution to a lesser extent. Unlike currently popular scaling strategies, which result in about O(s) increase in model activation w.r.t. scaling flops by a factor of s, the proposed fast compound scaling results in close to O(s) increase in activations, while achieving excellent accuracy. This leads to comparable speedups on modern memory-limited hardware (e.g., GPU, TPU). More generally, we hope this work provides a framework for analyzing and selecting scaling strategies under various computational constraints.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Alternatives to backpropagation have long been studied to better understand how biological brains may learn. Recently, they have also garnered interest as a way to train neural networks more efficiently. By relaxing constraints inherent to backpropagation (e.g., symmetric feedforward and feedback weights, sequential updates), these methods enable promising prospects, such as local learning. However, the tradeoffs between different methods in terms of final task performance, convergence speed, and ultimately compute and data requirements are rarely outlined. In this work, we use scaling laws to study the ability of Direct Feedback Alignment~(DFA) to train causal decoder-only Transformers efficiently. Scaling laws provide an overview of the tradeoffs implied by a modeling decision, up to extrapolating how it might transfer to increasingly large models. We find that DFA fails to offer more efficient scaling than backpropagation: there is never a regime for which the degradation in loss incurred by using DFA is worth the potential reduction in compute budget. Our finding comes at variance with previous beliefs in the alternative training methods community, and highlights the need for holistic empirical approaches to better understand modeling decisions.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

The performance of embodied agents has been shown to improve by increasing model parameters, dataset size, and compute. This has been demonstrated in domains from robotics to video games, when generative learning objectives on offline datasets (pre-training) are used to model an agent's behavior (imitation learning) or their environment (world modeling). This paper characterizes the role of scale in these tasks more precisely. Going beyond the simple intuition that `bigger is better', we show that the same types of power laws found in language modeling (e.g. between loss and optimal model size), also arise in world modeling and imitation learning. However, the coefficients of these laws are heavily influenced by the tokenizer, task \& architecture -- this has important implications on the optimal sizing of models and data.

In recent years, language models have drastically grown in size, and the abilities of these models have been shown to improve with scale. The majority of recent scaling laws studies focused on high-compute high-parameter count settings, leaving the question of when these abilities begin to emerge largely unanswered. In this paper, we investigate whether the effects of pre-training can be observed when the problem size is reduced, modeling a smaller, reduced-vocabulary language. We show the benefits of pre-training with masked language modeling (MLM) objective in models as small as 1.25M parameters, and establish a strong correlation between pre-training perplexity and downstream performance (GLUE benchmark). We examine downscaling effects, extending scaling laws to models as small as ~1M parameters. At this scale, we observe a break of the power law for compute-optimal models and show that the MLM loss does not scale smoothly with compute-cost (FLOPs) below 2.2 times 10^{15} FLOPs. We also find that adding layers does not always benefit downstream performance.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

The remarkable success of large language pretraining and the discovery of scaling laws signify a paradigm shift in machine learning. Notably, the primary objective has evolved from minimizing generalization error to reducing approximation error, and the most effective strategy has transitioned from regularization (in a broad sense) to scaling up models. This raises a critical question: Do the established principles that proved successful in the generalization-centric era remain valid in this new era of scaling? This paper examines several influential regularization-based principles that may no longer hold true in the scaling-centric, large language model (LLM) era. These principles include explicit L2 regularization and implicit regularization through small batch sizes and large learning rates. Additionally, we identify a new phenomenon termed ``scaling law crossover,'' where two scaling curves intersect at a certain scale, implying that methods effective at smaller scales may not generalize to larger ones. Together, these observations highlight two fundamental questions within this new paradigm: bullet Guiding Principles for Scaling: If regularization is no longer the primary guiding principle for model design, what new principles are emerging to guide scaling? bullet Model Comparison at Scale: How to reliably and effectively compare models at the scale where only a single experiment is feasible?

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Widely observed neural scaling laws, in which error falls off as a power of the training set size, model size, or both, have driven substantial performance improvements in deep learning. However, these improvements through scaling alone require considerable costs in compute and energy. Here we focus on the scaling of error with dataset size and show how in theory we can break beyond power law scaling and potentially even reduce it to exponential scaling instead if we have access to a high-quality data pruning metric that ranks the order in which training examples should be discarded to achieve any pruned dataset size. We then test this improved scaling prediction with pruned dataset size empirically, and indeed observe better than power law scaling in practice on ResNets trained on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and ImageNet. Next, given the importance of finding high-quality pruning metrics, we perform the first large-scale benchmarking study of ten different data pruning metrics on ImageNet. We find most existing high performing metrics scale poorly to ImageNet, while the best are computationally intensive and require labels for every image. We therefore developed a new simple, cheap and scalable self-supervised pruning metric that demonstrates comparable performance to the best supervised metrics. Overall, our work suggests that the discovery of good data-pruning metrics may provide a viable path forward to substantially improved neural scaling laws, thereby reducing the resource costs of modern deep learning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are proficient in natural language processing tasks, but their deployment is often restricted by extensive parameter sizes and computational demands. This paper focuses on post-training quantization (PTQ) in LLMs, specifically 4-bit weight and 8-bit activation (W4A8) quantization, to enhance computational efficiency -- a topic less explored compared to weight-only quantization. We present two innovative techniques: activation-quantization-aware scaling (AQAS) and sequence-length-aware calibration (SLAC) to enhance PTQ by considering the combined effects on weights and activations and aligning calibration sequence lengths to target tasks. Moreover, we introduce dINT, a hybrid data format combining integer and denormal representations, to address the underflow issue in W4A8 quantization, where small values are rounded to zero. Through rigorous evaluations of LLMs, including OPT and LLaMA, we demonstrate that our techniques significantly boost task accuracies to levels comparable with full-precision models. By developing arithmetic units compatible with dINT, we further confirm that our methods yield a 2times hardware efficiency improvement compared to 8-bit integer MAC unit.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has been extensively explored in large models to tackle complex understanding tasks. However, it still remains an open question whether such strategies can be applied to verifying and reinforcing image generation scenarios. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of the potential of CoT reasoning to enhance autoregressive image generation. We focus on three techniques: scaling test-time computation for verification, aligning model preferences with Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and integrating these techniques for complementary effects. Our results demonstrate that these approaches can be effectively adapted and combined to significantly improve image generation performance. Furthermore, given the pivotal role of reward models in our findings, we propose the Potential Assessment Reward Model (PARM) and PARM++, specialized for autoregressive image generation. PARM adaptively assesses each generation step through a potential assessment approach, merging the strengths of existing reward models, and PARM++ further introduces a reflection mechanism to self-correct the generated unsatisfactory image. Using our investigated reasoning strategies, we enhance a baseline model, Show-o, to achieve superior results, with a significant +24% improvement on the GenEval benchmark, surpassing Stable Diffusion 3 by +15%. We hope our study provides unique insights and paves a new path for integrating CoT reasoning with autoregressive image generation. Code and models are released at https://github.com/ZiyuGuo99/Image-Generation-CoT

While large language models (LLMs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance on a wide range of medical question answering (QA) tasks, they still face challenges with hallucinations and outdated knowledge. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is a promising solution and has been widely adopted. However, a RAG system can involve multiple flexible components, and there is a lack of best practices regarding the optimal RAG setting for various medical purposes. To systematically evaluate such systems, we propose the Medical Information Retrieval-Augmented Generation Evaluation (MIRAGE), a first-of-its-kind benchmark including 7,663 questions from five medical QA datasets. Using MIRAGE, we conducted large-scale experiments with over 1.8 trillion prompt tokens on 41 combinations of different corpora, retrievers, and backbone LLMs through the MedRAG toolkit introduced in this work. Overall, MedRAG improves the accuracy of six different LLMs by up to 18% over chain-of-thought prompting, elevating the performance of GPT-3.5 and Mixtral to GPT-4-level. Our results show that the combination of various medical corpora and retrievers achieves the best performance. In addition, we discovered a log-linear scaling property and the "lost-in-the-middle" effects in medical RAG. We believe our comprehensive evaluations can serve as practical guidelines for implementing RAG systems for medicine.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Parameter-efficient tuning (PET) methods can effectively drive extremely large pre-trained language models (PLMs) by only training minimal parameters. Different PET methods utilize different manually designed modules. In a small PLM, there are usually noticeable performance differences among PET methods. Nevertheless, when a PLM's scale grows up to tens of billions of parameters, all PET methods achieve almost the same performance and even perform on par with the full-parameter fine-tuning method. Hence, we hypothesize that model scaling can mitigate the design differences (the module structures and the number of trainable parameters) among PET methods. To study this hypothesis, we introduce a more flexible PET method - arbitrary PET (APET) method - to be compatible with arbitrary module structures and any number of trainable parameters. Then, we experiment on 11 NLP tasks of 5 types and 2 representative PLMs. From our investigations, we find that the model scaling (1) mitigates the effects of the arbitrary module structure on the performance of tuning methods, and (2) enables the tuning methods to optimize fewer parameters to achieve the full-parameter fine-tuning performance. Intriguingly, we also observe that all tuning methods require almost the same number of trainable parameters to drive PLMs. We discuss this phenomenon and the above two findings collectively from optimization perspectives to fathom the mechanisms behind them. These conclusions not only demonstrate the positive impact of model scaling on tuning methods but disclose its mechanisms, which help us design more effective and efficient tuning methods on larger-scale PLMs.

Diffusion models (DMs) have recently gained attention with state-of-the-art performance in text-to-image synthesis. Abiding by the tradition in deep learning, DMs are trained and evaluated on the images with fixed sizes. However, users are demanding for various images with specific sizes and various aspect ratio. This paper focuses on adapting text-to-image diffusion models to handle such variety while maintaining visual fidelity. First we observe that, during the synthesis, lower resolution images suffer from incomplete object portrayal, while higher resolution images exhibit repetitively disordered presentation. Next, we establish a statistical relationship indicating that attention entropy changes with token quantity, suggesting that models aggregate spatial information in proportion to image resolution. The subsequent interpretation on our observations is that objects are incompletely depicted due to limited spatial information for low resolutions, while repetitively disorganized presentation arises from redundant spatial information for high resolutions. From this perspective, we propose a scaling factor to alleviate the change of attention entropy and mitigate the defective pattern observed. Extensive experimental results validate the efficacy of the proposed scaling factor, enabling models to achieve better visual effects, image quality, and text alignment. Notably, these improvements are achieved without additional training or fine-tuning techniques.

While modern masked language models (LMs) are trained on ever larger corpora, we here explore the effects of down-scaling training to a modestly-sized but representative, well-balanced, and publicly available English text source -- the British National Corpus. We show that pre-training on this carefully curated corpus can reach better performance than the original BERT model. We argue that this type of corpora has great potential as a language modeling benchmark. To showcase this potential, we present fair, reproducible and data-efficient comparative studies of LMs, in which we evaluate several training objectives and model architectures and replicate previous empirical results in a systematic way. We propose an optimized LM architecture called LTG-BERT.

While many capabilities of language models (LMs) improve with increased training budget, the influence of scale on hallucinations is not yet fully understood. Hallucinations come in many forms, and there is no universally accepted definition. We thus focus on studying only those hallucinations where a correct answer appears verbatim in the training set. To fully control the training data content, we construct a knowledge graph (KG)-based dataset, and use it to train a set of increasingly large LMs. We find that for a fixed dataset, larger and longer-trained LMs hallucinate less. However, hallucinating on leq5% of the training data requires an order of magnitude larger model, and thus an order of magnitude more compute, than Hoffmann et al. (2022) reported was optimal. Given this costliness, we study how hallucination detectors depend on scale. While we see detector size improves performance on fixed LM's outputs, we find an inverse relationship between the scale of the LM and the detectability of its hallucinations.

Humans regularly engage in analogical thinking, relating personal experiences to current situations (X is analogous to Y because of Z). Analogical thinking allows humans to solve problems in creative ways, grasp difficult concepts, and articulate ideas more effectively. Can language models (LMs) do the same? To answer this question, we propose ANALOBENCH, a benchmark to determine analogical reasoning ability in LMs. Our benchmarking approach focuses on aspects of this ability that are common among humans: (i) recalling related experiences from a large amount of information, and (ii) applying analogical reasoning to complex and lengthy scenarios. We test a broad collection of proprietary models (e.g., GPT family, Claude V2) and open source models such as LLaMA2. As in prior results, scaling up LMs results in some performance boosts. Surprisingly, scale offers minimal gains when, (i) analogies involve lengthy scenarios, or (ii) recalling relevant scenarios from a large pool of information, a process analogous to finding a needle in a haystack. We hope these observations encourage further research in this field.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

The scaling hypothesis motivates the expansion of models past trillions of parameters as a path towards better performance. Recent significant developments, such as GPT-3, have been driven by this conjecture. However, as models scale-up, training them efficiently with backpropagation becomes difficult. Because model, pipeline, and data parallelism distribute parameters and gradients over compute nodes, communication is challenging to orchestrate: this is a bottleneck to further scaling. In this work, we argue that alternative training methods can mitigate these issues, and can inform the design of extreme-scale training hardware. Indeed, using a synaptically asymmetric method with a parallelizable backward pass, such as Direct Feedback Alignement, communication needs are drastically reduced. We present a photonic accelerator for Direct Feedback Alignment, able to compute random projections with trillions of parameters. We demonstrate our system on benchmark tasks, using both fully-connected and graph convolutional networks. Our hardware is the first architecture-agnostic photonic co-processor for training neural networks. This is a significant step towards building scalable hardware, able to go beyond backpropagation, and opening new avenues for deep learning.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

Recent work has shown that deep reinforcement learning agents have difficulty in effectively using their network parameters. We leverage prior insights into the advantages of sparse training techniques and demonstrate that gradual magnitude pruning enables agents to maximize parameter effectiveness. This results in networks that yield dramatic performance improvements over traditional networks and exhibit a type of "scaling law", using only a small fraction of the full network parameters.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are trained for thousands of GPU hours on carefully curated web datasets. In recent times, data curation has gained prominence with several works developing strategies to retain 'high-quality' subsets of 'raw' scraped data. For instance, the LAION public dataset retained only 10% of the total crawled data. However, these strategies are typically developed agnostic of the available compute for training. In this paper, we first demonstrate that making filtering decisions independent of training compute is often suboptimal: the limited high-quality data rapidly loses its utility when repeated, eventually requiring the inclusion of 'unseen' but 'lower-quality' data. To address this quality-quantity tradeoff (QQT), we introduce neural scaling laws that account for the non-homogeneous nature of web data, an angle ignored in existing literature. Our scaling laws (i) characterize the differing 'utility' of various quality subsets of web data; (ii) account for how utility diminishes for a data point at its 'nth' repetition; and (iii) formulate the mutual interaction of various data pools when combined, enabling the estimation of model performance on a combination of multiple data pools without ever jointly training on them. Our key message is that data curation cannot be agnostic of the total compute that a model will be trained for. Our scaling laws allow us to curate the best possible pool for achieving top performance on Datacomp at various compute budgets, carving out a pareto-frontier for data curation. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/scaling_laws_data_filtering.

In an increasing number of domains it has been demonstrated that deep learning models can be trained using relatively large batch sizes without sacrificing data efficiency. However the limits of this massive data parallelism seem to differ from domain to domain, ranging from batches of tens of thousands in ImageNet to batches of millions in RL agents that play the game Dota 2. To our knowledge there is limited conceptual understanding of why these limits to batch size differ or how we might choose the correct batch size in a new domain. In this paper, we demonstrate that a simple and easy-to-measure statistic called the gradient noise scale predicts the largest useful batch size across many domains and applications, including a number of supervised learning datasets (MNIST, SVHN, CIFAR-10, ImageNet, Billion Word), reinforcement learning domains (Atari and Dota), and even generative model training (autoencoders on SVHN). We find that the noise scale increases as the loss decreases over a training run and depends on the model size primarily through improved model performance. Our empirically-motivated theory also describes the tradeoff between compute-efficiency and time-efficiency, and provides a rough model of the benefits of adaptive batch-size training.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities, but their exposure bias problem, described as the input mismatch between training and sampling, lacks in-depth exploration. In this paper, we systematically investigate the exposure bias problem in diffusion models by first analytically modelling the sampling distribution, based on which we then attribute the prediction error at each sampling step as the root cause of the exposure bias issue. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions to this issue and propose an intuitive metric for it. Along with the elucidation of exposure bias, we propose a simple, yet effective, training-free method called Epsilon Scaling to alleviate the exposure bias. We show that Epsilon Scaling explicitly moves the sampling trajectory closer to the vector field learned in the training phase by scaling down the network output (Epsilon), mitigating the input mismatch between training and sampling. Experiments on various diffusion frameworks (ADM, DDPM/DDIM, EDM, LDM), unconditional and conditional settings, and deterministic vs. stochastic sampling verify the effectiveness of our method. Remarkably, our ADM-ES, as a SOTA stochastic sampler, obtains 2.17 FID on CIFAR-10 under 100-step unconditional generation. The code is available at https://github.com/forever208/ADM-ES and https://github.com/forever208/EDM-ES.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

In many machine learning for healthcare tasks, standard datasets are constructed by amassing data across many, often fundamentally dissimilar, sources. But when does adding more data help, and when does it hinder progress on desired model outcomes in real-world settings? We identify this situation as the Data Addition Dilemma, demonstrating that adding training data in this multi-source scaling context can at times result in reduced overall accuracy, uncertain fairness outcomes, and reduced worst-subgroup performance. We find that this possibly arises from an empirically observed trade-off between model performance improvements due to data scaling and model deterioration from distribution shift. We thus establish baseline strategies for navigating this dilemma, introducing distribution shift heuristics to guide decision-making on which data sources to add in data scaling, in order to yield the expected model performance improvements. We conclude with a discussion of the required considerations for data collection and suggestions for studying data composition and scale in the age of increasingly larger models.

We provide a distillation scaling law that estimates distilled model performance based on a compute budget and its allocation between the student and teacher. Our findings reduce the risks associated with using distillation at scale; compute allocation for both the teacher and student models can now be done to maximize student performance. We provide compute optimal distillation recipes for when 1) a teacher exists, or 2) a teacher needs training. If many students are to be distilled, or a teacher already exists, distillation outperforms supervised pretraining until a compute level which grows predictably with student size. If one student is to be distilled and a teacher also needs training, supervised learning should be done instead. Additionally, we provide insights across our large scale study of distillation, which increase our understanding of distillation and inform experimental design.

Batch Normalization is a commonly used trick to improve the training of deep neural networks. These neural networks use L2 regularization, also called weight decay, ostensibly to prevent overfitting. However, we show that L2 regularization has no regularizing effect when combined with normalization. Instead, regularization has an influence on the scale of weights, and thereby on the effective learning rate. We investigate this dependence, both in theory, and experimentally. We show that popular optimization methods such as ADAM only partially eliminate the influence of normalization on the learning rate. This leads to a discussion on other ways to mitigate this issue.

Emergent properties have been widely adopted as a term to describe behavior not present in smaller models but observed in larger models. Recent work suggests that the trade-off incurred by quantization is also an emergent property, with sharp drops in performance in models over 6B parameters. In this work, we ask "are quantization cliffs in performance solely a factor of scale?" Against a backdrop of increased research focus on why certain emergent properties surface at scale, this work provides a useful counter-example. We posit that it is possible to optimize for a quantization friendly training recipe that suppresses large activation magnitude outliers. Here, we find that outlier dimensions are not an inherent product of scale, but rather sensitive to the optimization conditions present during pre-training. This both opens up directions for more efficient quantization, and poses the question of whether other emergent properties are inherent or can be altered and conditioned by optimization and architecture design choices. We successfully quantize models ranging in size from 410M to 52B with minimal degradation in performance.

Scaling deep learning models has been at the heart of recent revolutions in language modelling and image generation. Practitioners have observed a strong relationship between model size, dataset size, and performance. However, structure-based architectures such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are yet to show the benefits of scale mainly due to the lower efficiency of sparse operations, large data requirements, and lack of clarity about the effectiveness of various architectures. We address this drawback of GNNs by studying their scaling behavior. Specifically, we analyze message-passing networks, graph Transformers, and hybrid architectures on the largest public collection of 2D molecular graphs. For the first time, we observe that GNNs benefit tremendously from the increasing scale of depth, width, number of molecules, number of labels, and the diversity in the pretraining datasets, resulting in a 30.25% improvement when scaling to 1 billion parameters and 28.98% improvement when increasing size of dataset to eightfold. We further demonstrate strong finetuning scaling behavior on 38 tasks, outclassing previous large models. We hope that our work paves the way for an era where foundational GNNs drive pharmaceutical drug discovery.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

FP8 formats are gaining popularity to boost the computational efficiency for training and inference of large deep learning models. Their main challenge is that a careful choice of scaling is needed to prevent degradation due to the reduced dynamic range compared to higher-precision formats. Although there exists ample literature about selecting such scalings for INT formats, this critical aspect has yet to be addressed for FP8. This paper presents a methodology to select the scalings for FP8 linear layers, based on dynamically updating per-tensor scales for the weights, gradients and activations. We apply this methodology to train and validate large language models of the type of GPT and Llama 2 using FP8, for model sizes ranging from 111M to 70B. To facilitate the understanding of the FP8 dynamics, our results are accompanied by plots of the per-tensor scale distribution for weights, activations and gradients during both training and inference.

Scaling up language models has been shown to predictably improve performance and sample efficiency on a wide range of downstream tasks. This paper instead discusses an unpredictable phenomenon that we refer to as emergent abilities of large language models. We consider an ability to be emergent if it is not present in smaller models but is present in larger models. Thus, emergent abilities cannot be predicted simply by extrapolating the performance of smaller models. The existence of such emergence implies that additional scaling could further expand the range of capabilities of language models.

Understanding when the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) affects generalization of deep neural networks remains a challenge, complicated by the fact that networks can operate in distinct training regimes. Here we study how the magnitude of this noise T affects performance as the size of the training set P and the scale of initialization alpha are varied. For gradient descent, alpha is a key parameter that controls if the network is `lazy'(alphagg1) or instead learns features (alphall1). For classification of MNIST and CIFAR10 images, our central results are: (i) obtaining phase diagrams for performance in the (alpha,T) plane. They show that SGD noise can be detrimental or instead useful depending on the training regime. Moreover, although increasing T or decreasing alpha both allow the net to escape the lazy regime, these changes can have opposite effects on performance. (ii) Most importantly, we find that the characteristic temperature T_c where the noise of SGD starts affecting the trained model (and eventually performance) is a power law of P. We relate this finding with the observation that key dynamical quantities, such as the total variation of weights during training, depend on both T and P as power laws. These results indicate that a key effect of SGD noise occurs late in training by affecting the stopping process whereby all data are fitted. Indeed, we argue that due to SGD noise, nets must develop a stronger `signal', i.e. larger informative weights, to fit the data, leading to a longer training time. A stronger signal and a longer training time are also required when the size of the training set P increases. We confirm these views in the perceptron model, where signal and noise can be precisely measured. Interestingly, exponents characterizing the effect of SGD depend on the density of data near the decision boundary, as we explain.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Low precision training and inference affect both the quality and cost of language models, but current scaling laws do not account for this. In this work, we devise "precision-aware" scaling laws for both training and inference. We propose that training in lower precision reduces the model's "effective parameter count," allowing us to predict the additional loss incurred from training in low precision and post-train quantization. For inference, we find that the degradation introduced by post-training quantization increases as models are trained on more data, eventually making additional pretraining data actively harmful. For training, our scaling laws allow us to predict the loss of a model with different parts in different precisions, and suggest that training larger models in lower precision may be compute optimal. We unify the scaling laws for post and pretraining quantization to arrive at a single functional form that predicts degradation from training and inference in varied precisions. We fit on over 465 pretraining runs and validate our predictions on model sizes up to 1.7B parameters trained on up to 26B tokens.

While Large Language Models require more and more data to train and scale, rather than looking for any data to acquire, we should consider what types of tasks are more likely to benefit from data scaling. We should be intentional in our data acquisition. We argue that the topology of data itself informs which tasks to prioritize in data scaling, and shapes the development of the next generation of compute paradigms for tasks where data scaling is inefficient, or even insufficient.

Climbing grades are used to classify a climbing route based on its perceived difficulty, and have come to play a central role in the sport of rock climbing. Recently, the first statistically rigorous method for estimating climbing grades from whole-history ascent data was described, based on the dynamic Bradley-Terry model for games between players of time-varying ability. In this paper, we implement inference under the whole-history rating model using Markov chain Monte Carlo and apply the method to a curated data set made up of climbers who climb regularly. We use these data to get an estimate of the model's fundamental scale parameter m, which defines the proportional increase in difficulty associated with an increment of grade. We show that the data conform to assumptions that the climbing grade scale is a logarithmic scale of difficulty, like decibels or stellar magnitude. We estimate that an increment in Ewbank, French and UIAA climbing grade systems corresponds to 2.1, 2.09 and 2.13 times increase in difficulty respectively, assuming a logistic model of probability of success as a function of grade. Whereas we find that the Vermin scale for bouldering (V-grade scale) corresponds to a 3.17 increase in difficulty per grade increment. In addition, we highlight potential connections between the logarithmic properties of climbing grade scales and the psychophysical laws of Weber and Fechner.

With the growing attention and investment in recent AI approaches such as large language models, the narrative that the larger the AI system the more valuable, powerful and interesting it is is increasingly seen as common sense. But what is this assumption based on, and how are we measuring value, power, and performance? And what are the collateral consequences of this race to ever-increasing scale? Here, we scrutinize the current scaling trends and trade-offs across multiple axes and refute two common assumptions underlying the 'bigger-is-better' AI paradigm: 1) that improved performance is a product of increased scale, and 2) that all interesting problems addressed by AI require large-scale models. Rather, we argue that this approach is not only fragile scientifically, but comes with undesirable consequences. First, it is not sustainable, as its compute demands increase faster than model performance, leading to unreasonable economic requirements and a disproportionate environmental footprint. Second, it implies focusing on certain problems at the expense of others, leaving aside important applications, e.g. health, education, or the climate. Finally, it exacerbates a concentration of power, which centralizes decision-making in the hands of a few actors while threatening to disempower others in the context of shaping both AI research and its applications throughout society.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Scaling up model and data size has been quite successful for the evolution of LLMs. However, the scaling law for the diffusion based text-to-image (T2I) models is not fully explored. It is also unclear how to efficiently scale the model for better performance at reduced cost. The different training settings and expensive training cost make a fair model comparison extremely difficult. In this work, we empirically study the scaling properties of diffusion based T2I models by performing extensive and rigours ablations on scaling both denoising backbones and training set, including training scaled UNet and Transformer variants ranging from 0.4B to 4B parameters on datasets upto 600M images. For model scaling, we find the location and amount of cross attention distinguishes the performance of existing UNet designs. And increasing the transformer blocks is more parameter-efficient for improving text-image alignment than increasing channel numbers. We then identify an efficient UNet variant, which is 45% smaller and 28% faster than SDXL's UNet. On the data scaling side, we show the quality and diversity of the training set matters more than simply dataset size. Increasing caption density and diversity improves text-image alignment performance and the learning efficiency. Finally, we provide scaling functions to predict the text-image alignment performance as functions of the scale of model size, compute and dataset size.

In recent years, the state-of-the-art in deep learning has been dominated by very large models that have been pre-trained on vast amounts of data. The paradigm is very simple: Investing more computational resources (optimally) leads to better performance, and even predictably so; neural scaling laws have been derived that accurately forecast the performance of a network for a desired level of compute. This leads to the notion of a "compute-optimal" model, i.e. a model that allocates a given level of compute during training optimally to maximise performance. In this work, we extend the concept of optimality by allowing for an "adaptive" model, i.e. a model that can change its shape during the course of training. By allowing the shape to adapt, we can optimally traverse between the underlying scaling laws, leading to a significant reduction in the required compute to reach a given target performance. We focus on vision tasks and the family of Vision Transformers, where the patch size as well as the width naturally serve as adaptive shape parameters. We demonstrate that, guided by scaling laws, we can design compute-optimal adaptive models that beat their "static" counterparts.

Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics problems. Each problem in MATH has a full step-by-step solution which can be used to teach models to generate answer derivations and explanations. To facilitate future research and increase accuracy on MATH, we also contribute a large auxiliary pretraining dataset which helps teach models the fundamentals of mathematics. Even though we are able to increase accuracy on MATH, our results show that accuracy remains relatively low, even with enormous Transformer models. Moreover, we find that simply increasing budgets and model parameter counts will be impractical for achieving strong mathematical reasoning if scaling trends continue. While scaling Transformers is automatically solving most other text-based tasks, scaling is not currently solving MATH. To have more traction on mathematical problem solving we will likely need new algorithmic advancements from the broader research community.

We present unit scaling, a paradigm for designing deep learning models that simplifies the use of low-precision number formats. Training in FP16 or the recently proposed FP8 formats offers substantial efficiency gains, but can lack sufficient range for out-of-the-box training. Unit scaling addresses this by introducing a principled approach to model numerics: seeking unit variance of all weights, activations and gradients at initialisation. Unlike alternative methods, this approach neither requires multiple training runs to find a suitable scale nor has significant computational overhead. We demonstrate the efficacy of unit scaling across a range of models and optimisers. We further show that existing models can be adapted to be unit-scaled, training BERT-Large in FP16 and then FP8 with no degradation in accuracy.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

This paper investigates discrepancies in how neural networks learn from different imaging domains, which are commonly overlooked when adopting computer vision techniques from the domain of natural images to other specialized domains such as medical images. Recent works have found that the generalization error of a trained network typically increases with the intrinsic dimension (d_{data}) of its training set. Yet, the steepness of this relationship varies significantly between medical (radiological) and natural imaging domains, with no existing theoretical explanation. We address this gap in knowledge by establishing and empirically validating a generalization scaling law with respect to d_{data}, and propose that the substantial scaling discrepancy between the two considered domains may be at least partially attributed to the higher intrinsic ``label sharpness'' (K_F) of medical imaging datasets, a metric which we propose. Next, we demonstrate an additional benefit of measuring the label sharpness of a training set: it is negatively correlated with the trained model's adversarial robustness, which notably leads to models for medical images having a substantially higher vulnerability to adversarial attack. Finally, we extend our d_{data} formalism to the related metric of learned representation intrinsic dimension (d_{repr}), derive a generalization scaling law with respect to d_{repr}, and show that d_{data} serves as an upper bound for d_{repr}. Our theoretical results are supported by thorough experiments with six models and eleven natural and medical imaging datasets over a range of training set sizes. Our findings offer insights into the influence of intrinsic dataset properties on generalization, representation learning, and robustness in deep neural networks. Code link: https://github.com/mazurowski-lab/intrinsic-properties

Getting the most out of limited resources allows advances in natural language processing (NLP) research and practice while being conservative with resources. Those resources may be data, time, storage, or energy. Recent work in NLP has yielded interesting results from scaling; however, using only scale to improve results means that resource consumption also scales. That relationship motivates research into efficient methods that require less resources to achieve similar results. This survey relates and synthesises methods and findings in those efficiencies in NLP, aiming to guide new researchers in the field and inspire the development of new methods.

Recent work claims that large language models display emergent abilities, abilities not present in smaller-scale models that are present in larger-scale models. What makes emergent abilities intriguing is two-fold: their sharpness, transitioning seemingly instantaneously from not present to present, and their unpredictability, appearing at seemingly unforeseeable model scales. Here, we present an alternative explanation for emergent abilities: that for a particular task and model family, when analyzing fixed model outputs, emergent abilities appear due to the researcher's choice of metric rather than due to fundamental changes in model behavior with scale. Specifically, nonlinear or discontinuous metrics produce apparent emergent abilities, whereas linear or continuous metrics produce smooth, continuous predictable changes in model performance. We present our alternative explanation in a simple mathematical model, then test it in three complementary ways: we (1) make, test and confirm three predictions on the effect of metric choice using the InstructGPT/GPT-3 family on tasks with claimed emergent abilities; (2) make, test and confirm two predictions about metric choices in a meta-analysis of emergent abilities on BIG-Bench; and (3) show to choose metrics to produce never-before-seen seemingly emergent abilities in multiple vision tasks across diverse deep networks. Via all three analyses, we provide evidence that alleged emergent abilities evaporate with different metrics or with better statistics, and may not be a fundamental property of scaling AI models.

Recently, the statistical effect of fermionic superradiance is approved by series of experiments both in free space and in a cavity. The Pauli blocking effect can be visualized by a 1/2 scaling of Dicke transition critical pumping strength against particle number Nat for fermions in a trap. However, the Fermi surface nesting effect, which manifests the enhancement of superradiance by Fermi statistics is still very hard to be identified. Here we studied the influence of localized fermions on the trap edge when both pumping optical lattice and the trap are presented. We find due to localization, the statistical effect in superradiant transition is enhanced. Two new scalings of critical pumping strength are observed as 4/3, and 2/3 for mediate particle number, and the Pauli blocking scaling 1/3 (2d case) in large particle number limit is unaffected. Further, we find the 4/3 scaling is subject to a power law increasing with rising ratio between recoil energy and trap frequency in pumping laser direction. The divergence of this scaling of critical pumping strength against N_{rm at} in E_R/omega_xrightarrow+infty limit can be identified as the Fermi surface nesting effect. Thus we find a practical experimental scheme for visualizing the long-desired Fermi surface nesting effect with the help of trap induced localization in a two-dimensional Fermi gas in a cavity.

A new class of affine scaling matrices for the interior point Newton-type methods is considered to solve the nonlinear systems with simple bounds. We review the essential properties of a scaling matrix and consider several well-known scaling matrices proposed in the literature. We define a new scaling matrix that is the convex combination of these matrices. The proposed scaling matrix inherits those interesting properties of the individual matrices and satisfies additional desired requirements. The numerical experiments demonstrate the superiority of the new scaling matrix in solving several important test problems.

Preserving training dynamics across batch sizes is an important tool for practical machine learning as it enables the trade-off between batch size and wall-clock time. This trade-off is typically enabled by a scaling rule, for example, in stochastic gradient descent, one should scale the learning rate linearly with the batch size. Another important tool for practical machine learning is the model Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a model copy that does not receive gradient information, but instead follows its target model with some momentum. This model EMA can improve the robustness and generalization properties of supervised learning, stabilize pseudo-labeling, and provide a learning signal for Self-Supervised Learning (SSL). Prior works have treated the model EMA separately from optimization, leading to different training dynamics across batch sizes and lower model performance. In this work, we provide a scaling rule for optimization in the presence of model EMAs and demonstrate its validity across a range of architectures, optimizers, and data modalities. We also show the rule's validity where the model EMA contributes to the optimization of the target model, enabling us to train EMA-based pseudo-labeling and SSL methods at small and large batch sizes. For SSL, we enable training of BYOL up to batch size 24,576 without sacrificing performance, optimally a 6times wall-clock time reduction.

Neural collapse (NC) is a phenomenon observed in classification tasks where top-layer representations collapse into their class means, which become equinorm, equiangular and aligned with the classifiers. These behaviors -- associated with generalization and robustness -- would manifest under specific conditions: models are trained towards zero loss, with noise-free labels belonging to balanced classes, which do not outnumber the model's hidden dimension. Recent studies have explored NC in the absence of one or more of these conditions to extend and capitalize on the associated benefits of ideal geometries. Language modeling presents a curious frontier, as training by token prediction constitutes a classification task where none of the conditions exist: the vocabulary is imbalanced and exceeds the embedding dimension; different tokens might correspond to similar contextual embeddings; and large language models (LLMs) in particular are typically only trained for a few epochs. This paper empirically investigates the impact of scaling the architectures and training of causal language models (CLMs) on their progression towards NC. We find that NC properties that develop with scaling are linked to generalization. Moreover, there is evidence of some relationship between NC and generalization independent of scale. Our work therefore underscores the generality of NC as it extends to the novel and more challenging setting of language modeling. Downstream, we seek to inspire further research on the phenomenon to deepen our understanding of LLMs -- and neural networks at large -- and improve existing architectures based on NC-related properties.

There remain many open questions pertaining to the scaling behaviour of Transformer architectures. These scaling decisions and findings can be critical, as training runs often come with an associated computational cost which have both financial and/or environmental impact. The goal of this paper is to present scaling insights from pretraining and finetuning Transformers. While Kaplan et al. presents a comprehensive study of the scaling behaviour of Transformer language models, the scope is only on the upstream (pretraining) loss. Therefore, it is still unclear if these set of findings transfer to downstream task within the context of the pretrain-finetune paradigm. The key findings of this paper are as follows: (1) we show that aside from only the model size, model shape matters for downstream fine-tuning, (2) scaling protocols operate differently at different compute regions, (3) widely adopted T5-base and T5-large sizes are Pareto-inefficient. To this end, we present improved scaling protocols whereby our redesigned models achieve similar downstream fine-tuning quality while having 50\% fewer parameters and training 40\% faster compared to the widely adopted T5-base model. We publicly release over 100 pretrained checkpoints of different T5 configurations to facilitate future research and analysis.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

The Maximal Update Parametrization (muP) aims to make the optimal hyperparameters (HPs) of a model independent of its size, allowing them to be swept using a cheap proxy model rather than the full-size target model. We present a new scheme, u-muP, which improves upon muP by combining it with Unit Scaling, a method for designing models that makes them easy to train in low-precision. The two techniques have a natural affinity: muP ensures that the scale of activations is independent of model size, and Unit Scaling ensures that activations, weights and gradients begin training with a scale of one. This synthesis opens the door to a simpler scheme, whose default values are near-optimal. This in turn facilitates a more efficient sweeping strategy, with u-muP models reaching a lower loss than comparable muP models and working out-of-the-box in FP8.

Recent hardware developments have dramatically increased the scale of data parallelism available for neural network training. Among the simplest ways to harness next-generation hardware is to increase the batch size in standard mini-batch neural network training algorithms. In this work, we aim to experimentally characterize the effects of increasing the batch size on training time, as measured by the number of steps necessary to reach a goal out-of-sample error. We study how this relationship varies with the training algorithm, model, and data set, and find extremely large variation between workloads. Along the way, we show that disagreements in the literature on how batch size affects model quality can largely be explained by differences in metaparameter tuning and compute budgets at different batch sizes. We find no evidence that larger batch sizes degrade out-of-sample performance. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results on efforts to train neural networks much faster in the future. Our experimental data is publicly available as a database of 71,638,836 loss measurements taken over the course of training for 168,160 individual models across 35 workloads.

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

Model merging aims to combine multiple expert models into a more capable single model, offering benefits such as reduced storage and serving costs, improved generalization, and support for decentralized model development. Despite its promise, previous studies have primarily focused on merging a few small models. This leaves many unanswered questions about the effect of scaling model size and how it interplays with other key factors -- like the base model quality and number of expert models -- , to affect the merged model's performance. This work systematically evaluates the utility of model merging at scale, examining the impact of these different factors. We experiment with merging fully fine-tuned models using 4 popular merging methods -- Averaging, Task~Arithmetic, Dare, and TIES -- across model sizes ranging from 1B-64B parameters and merging up to 8 different expert models. We evaluate the merged models on both held-in tasks, i.e., the expert's training tasks, and zero-shot generalization to unseen held-out tasks. Our experiments provide several new insights about model merging at scale and the interplay between different factors. First, we find that merging is more effective when experts are created from strong base models, i.e., models with good zero-shot performance. Second, larger models facilitate easier merging. Third merging consistently improves generalization capabilities. Notably, when merging 8 large expert models, the merged models often generalize better compared to the multitask trained models. Fourth, we can better merge more expert models when working with larger models. Fifth, different merging methods behave very similarly at larger scales. Overall, our findings shed light on some interesting properties of model merging while also highlighting some limitations. We hope that this study will serve as a reference point on large-scale merging for upcoming research.

Text-guided diffusion models have revolutionized generative tasks by producing high-fidelity content from text descriptions. They have also enabled an editing paradigm where concepts can be replaced through text conditioning (e.g., a dog to a tiger). In this work, we explore a novel approach: instead of replacing a concept, can we enhance or suppress the concept itself? Through an empirical study, we identify a trend where concepts can be decomposed in text-guided diffusion models. Leveraging this insight, we introduce ScalingConcept, a simple yet effective method to scale decomposed concepts up or down in real input without introducing new elements. To systematically evaluate our approach, we present the WeakConcept-10 dataset, where concepts are imperfect and need to be enhanced. More importantly, ScalingConcept enables a variety of novel zero-shot applications across image and audio domains, including tasks such as canonical pose generation and generative sound highlighting or removal.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

Diffusion transformers (DiT) have already achieved appealing synthesis and scaling properties in content recreation, e.g., image and video generation. However, scaling laws of DiT are less explored, which usually offer precise predictions regarding optimal model size and data requirements given a specific compute budget. Therefore, experiments across a broad range of compute budgets, from 1e17 to 6e18 FLOPs are conducted to confirm the existence of scaling laws in DiT for the first time. Concretely, the loss of pretraining DiT also follows a power-law relationship with the involved compute. Based on the scaling law, we can not only determine the optimal model size and required data but also accurately predict the text-to-image generation loss given a model with 1B parameters and a compute budget of 1e21 FLOPs. Additionally, we also demonstrate that the trend of pre-training loss matches the generation performances (e.g., FID), even across various datasets, which complements the mapping from compute to synthesis quality and thus provides a predictable benchmark that assesses model performance and data quality at a reduced cost.

We find that the cross-entropy loss curves of neural language models empirically adhere to a scaling law with learning rate (LR) annealing over training steps (s): $L(s) = L_0 + Acdot S_1^{-alpha} - Ccdot S_2 Where S_1 is forward area and S_2$ is learning rate annealing area. This formulation takes into account two factors: (1) The forward scaling defined as typical scaling law, and (2) the additional loss drop brought by LR annealing. Therefore, this formulation can describe the full loss curve at each step, rather than the single loss point at the end of training. Applying the scaling law with LR annealing and fitting only one or two training curves, we can accurately predict the loss of language model training at any given step and across any learning rate scheduler (LRS). Furthermore, this equation accurately describes the dynamics during training process, and provides a theoretical verification and explanation for numerous experimental findings of previous studies, particularly those focusing on LR schedule and LR annealing. The resulting insights, also serve as a guide for researchers to select critical LRS in advance by prediction using our equation. Most significantly, since all the points in a full training curve follow the equation, we can achieve accurate loss prediction at any given step across any learning rate scheduler, while expending less than 1\% of the computational cost required by the chinchilla scaling law to fit language modeling loss. This approach extremely democratizes scaling law fitting and predicting in developing large language models.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

Earth Observation (EO) data are increasingly used in policy analysis by enabling granular estimation of treatment effects. However, a challenge in EO-based causal inference lies in balancing the trade-off between capturing fine-grained individual heterogeneity and broader contextual information. This paper introduces Multi-scale Concatenation, a family of composable procedures that transform arbitrary single-scale CATE estimation algorithms into multi-scale algorithms. We benchmark the performance of Multi-scale Concatenation on a CATE estimation pipeline combining Vision Transformer (ViT) models fine-tuned on satellite images to encode images of different scales with Causal Forests to obtain the final CATE estimate. We first perform simulation studies, showing how a multi-scale approach captures multi-level dynamics that single-scale ViT models fail to capture. We then apply the multi-scale method to two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in Peru and Uganda using Landsat satellite imagery. In the RCT analysis, the Rank Average Treatment Effect Ratio (RATE Ratio) measure is employed to assess performance without ground truth individual treatment effects. Results indicate that Multi-scale Concatenation improves the performance of deep learning models in EO-based CATE estimation without the complexity of designing new multi-scale architectures for a specific use case.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

In value-based deep reinforcement learning with replay memories, the batch size parameter specifies how many transitions to sample for each gradient update. Although critical to the learning process, this value is typically not adjusted when proposing new algorithms. In this work we present a broad empirical study that suggests {\em reducing} the batch size can result in a number of significant performance gains; this is surprising, as the general tendency when training neural networks is towards larger batch sizes for improved performance. We complement our experimental findings with a set of empirical analyses towards better understanding this phenomenon.

It is becoming increasingly clear that many machine learning classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In attempting to explain the origin of adversarial examples, previous studies have typically focused on the fact that neural networks operate on high dimensional data, they overfit, or they are too linear. Here we argue that the origin of adversarial examples is primarily due to an inherent uncertainty that neural networks have about their predictions. We show that the functional form of this uncertainty is independent of architecture, dataset, and training protocol; and depends only on the statistics of the logit differences of the network, which do not change significantly during training. This leads to adversarial error having a universal scaling, as a power-law, with respect to the size of the adversarial perturbation. We show that this universality holds for a broad range of datasets (MNIST, CIFAR10, ImageNet, and random data), models (including state-of-the-art deep networks, linear models, adversarially trained networks, and networks trained on randomly shuffled labels), and attacks (FGSM, step l.l., PGD). Motivated by these results, we study the effects of reducing prediction entropy on adversarial robustness. Finally, we study the effect of network architectures on adversarial sensitivity. To do this, we use neural architecture search with reinforcement learning to find adversarially robust architectures on CIFAR10. Our resulting architecture is more robust to white and black box attacks compared to previous attempts.

Recently, there has been growing evidence that if the width and depth of a neural network are scaled toward the so-called rich feature learning limit (muP and its depth extension), then some hyperparameters - such as the learning rate - exhibit transfer from small to very large models, thus reducing the cost of hyperparameter tuning. From an optimization perspective, this phenomenon is puzzling, as it implies that the loss landscape is remarkably consistent across very different model sizes. In this work, we find empirical evidence that learning rate transfer can be attributed to the fact that under muP and its depth extension, the largest eigenvalue of the training loss Hessian (i.e. the sharpness) is largely independent of the width and depth of the network for a sustained period of training time. On the other hand, we show that under the neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime, the sharpness exhibits very different dynamics at different scales, thus preventing learning rate transfer. But what causes these differences in the sharpness dynamics? Through a connection between the spectra of the Hessian and the NTK matrix, we argue that the cause lies in the presence (for muP) or progressive absence (for the NTK regime) of feature learning, which results in a different evolution of the NTK, and thus of the sharpness. We corroborate our claims with a substantial suite of experiments, covering a wide range of datasets and architectures: from ResNets and Vision Transformers trained on benchmark vision datasets to Transformers-based language models trained on WikiText

We perform an effective-theory analysis of forward-backward signal propagation in wide and deep Transformers, i.e., residual neural networks with multi-head self-attention blocks and multilayer perceptron blocks. This analysis suggests particular width scalings of initialization and training hyperparameters for these models. We then take up such suggestions, training Vision and Language Transformers in practical setups.

The debate around misinformation and its potentially detrimental effects on public opinion is complex and multifaceted, to the extent that even the relevant academic research has not found unanimity on the prevalence and consumption of misinformation compared with mainstream content. The methodological framework presented here emphasises the importance of considering data representative of the complexity of the phenomenon and metrics that control for possible scale effects. By combining statistical, econometric and machine learning models, we shed light on the real impact of misinformation about a subject of general interest and social relevance, such as vaccines, on both the information available to citizens and their news diet. Our results show the prominent role achieved by misinformation sources in the news ecosystem, but also - and above all - the inability of mainstream media to drive the public debate over time on issues that are particularly sensitive and emotional. Taking properly account for the temporal dynamics of public debate seems crucial to prevent the latter from moving into uncontrolled spaces where false narratives are more easily conveyed and entrenched.

OpenAI's Sora highlights the potential of video generation for developing world models that adhere to fundamental physical laws. However, the ability of video generation models to discover such laws purely from visual data without human priors can be questioned. A world model learning the true law should give predictions robust to nuances and correctly extrapolate on unseen scenarios. In this work, we evaluate across three key scenarios: in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and combinatorial generalization. We developed a 2D simulation testbed for object movement and collisions to generate videos deterministically governed by one or more classical mechanics laws. This provides an unlimited supply of data for large-scale experimentation and enables quantitative evaluation of whether the generated videos adhere to physical laws. We trained diffusion-based video generation models to predict object movements based on initial frames. Our scaling experiments show perfect generalization within the distribution, measurable scaling behavior for combinatorial generalization, but failure in out-of-distribution scenarios. Further experiments reveal two key insights about the generalization mechanisms of these models: (1) the models fail to abstract general physical rules and instead exhibit "case-based" generalization behavior, i.e., mimicking the closest training example; (2) when generalizing to new cases, models are observed to prioritize different factors when referencing training data: color > size > velocity > shape. Our study suggests that scaling alone is insufficient for video generation models to uncover fundamental physical laws, despite its role in Sora's broader success. See our project page at https://phyworld.github.io

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

We study the scaling properties of latent diffusion models (LDMs) with an emphasis on their sampling efficiency. While improved network architecture and inference algorithms have shown to effectively boost sampling efficiency of diffusion models, the role of model size -- a critical determinant of sampling efficiency -- has not been thoroughly examined. Through empirical analysis of established text-to-image diffusion models, we conduct an in-depth investigation into how model size influences sampling efficiency across varying sampling steps. Our findings unveil a surprising trend: when operating under a given inference budget, smaller models frequently outperform their larger equivalents in generating high-quality results. Moreover, we extend our study to demonstrate the generalizability of the these findings by applying various diffusion samplers, exploring diverse downstream tasks, evaluating post-distilled models, as well as comparing performance relative to training compute. These findings open up new pathways for the development of LDM scaling strategies which can be employed to enhance generative capabilities within limited inference budgets.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Hall effect thrusters are one of the most versatile and popular electric propulsion systems for space use. Industry trends towards interplanetary missions arise advances in design development of such propulsion systems. It is understood that correct sizing of discharge channel in Hall effect thruster impact performance greatly. Since the complete physics model of such propulsion system is not yet optimized for fast computations and design iterations, most thrusters are being designed using so-called scaling laws. But this work focuses on rather novel approach, which is outlined less frequently than ordinary scaling design approach in literature. Using deep machine learning it is possible to create predictive performance model, which can be used to effortlessly get design of required hall thruster with required characteristics using way less computational power than design from scratch and way more flexible than usual scaling approach.

We numerically investigate some properties of unbalanced St\"{u}ckelberg holographic superconductors, by considering backreaction effects of fields on the background geometry. More precisely, we study the impacts of the chemical potential mismatch and St\"{u}ckelberg mechanism on the condensation and conductivity types (electrical, spin, mixed, thermo-electric, thermo-spin and thermal conductivity). Our results show that the St\"{u}ckelberg's model parameters C_{alpha} and alpha not only have significant impacts on the phase transition, but also affect the conductivity pseudo-gap and the strength of conductivity fluctuations. Moreover, the effects of these parameters on a system will be gradually reduced as the imbalance grows. We also find that the influence of alpha on the amplitude of conductivity fluctuations depends on the magnitude of the both C_{alpha} and deltamu/mu in the electric and thermal conductivity cases. This results in that increasing alpha can damp the conductivity fluctuations of an unbalanced system in contrast to balanced ones.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We consider concept generalization at a large scale in the diverse and natural visual spectrum. Established computational modes (i.e., rule-based or similarity-based) are primarily studied isolated and focus on confined and abstract problem spaces. In this work, we study these two modes when the problem space scales up, and the complexity of concepts becomes diverse. Specifically, at the representational level, we seek to answer how the complexity varies when a visual concept is mapped to the representation space. Prior psychology literature has shown that two types of complexities (i.e., subjective complexity and visual complexity) (Griffiths and Tenenbaum, 2003) build an inverted-U relation (Donderi, 2006; Sun and Firestone, 2021). Leveraging Representativeness of Attribute (RoA), we computationally confirm the following observation: Models use attributes with high RoA to describe visual concepts, and the description length falls in an inverted-U relation with the increment in visual complexity. At the computational level, we aim to answer how the complexity of representation affects the shift between the rule- and similarity-based generalization. We hypothesize that category-conditioned visual modeling estimates the co-occurrence frequency between visual and categorical attributes, thus potentially serving as the prior for the natural visual world. Experimental results show that representations with relatively high subjective complexity outperform those with relatively low subjective complexity in the rule-based generalization, while the trend is the opposite in the similarity-based generalization.

Recently, "visual o1" began to enter people's vision, with expectations that this slow-thinking design can solve visual reasoning tasks, especially geometric math problems. However, the reality is that current LVLMs (Large Vision Language Models) can hardly even accurately copy a geometric figure, let alone truly understand the complex inherent logic and spatial relationships within geometric shapes. We believe accurate copying (strong perception) is the first step to visual o1. Accordingly, we introduce the concept of "slow perception" (SP), which guides the model to gradually perceive basic point-line combinations, as our humans, reconstruct complex geometric structures progressively. There are two-fold stages in SP: a) perception decomposition. Perception is not instantaneous. In this stage, complex geometric figures are broken down into basic simple units to unify geometry representation. b) perception flow, which acknowledges that accurately tracing a line is not an easy task. This stage aims to avoid "long visual jumps" in regressing line segments by using a proposed "perceptual ruler" to trace each line stroke-by-stroke. Surprisingly, such a human-like perception manner enjoys an inference time scaling law -- the slower, the better. Researchers strive to speed up the model's perception in the past, but we slow it down again, allowing the model to read the image step-by-step and carefully.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

A key puzzle in search, ads, and recommendation is that the ranking model can only utilize a small portion of the vastly available user interaction data. As a result, increasing data volume, model size, or computation FLOPs will quickly suffer from diminishing returns. We examined this problem and found that one of the root causes may lie in the so-called ``item-centric'' formulation, which has an unbounded vocabulary and thus uncontrolled model complexity. To mitigate quality saturation, we introduce an alternative formulation named ``user-centric ranking'', which is based on a transposed view of the dyadic user-item interaction data. We show that this formulation has a promising scaling property, enabling us to train better-converged models on substantially larger data sets.

When training neural networks, it has been widely observed that a large step size is essential in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for obtaining superior models. However, the effect of large step sizes on the success of SGD is not well understood theoretically. Several previous works have attributed this success to the stochastic noise present in SGD. However, we show through a novel set of experiments that the stochastic noise is not sufficient to explain good non-convex training, and that instead the effect of a large learning rate itself is essential for obtaining best performance.We demonstrate the same effects also in the noise-less case, i.e. for full-batch GD. We formally prove that GD with large step size -- on certain non-convex function classes -- follows a different trajectory than GD with a small step size, which can lead to convergence to a global minimum instead of a local one. Our settings provide a framework for future analysis which allows comparing algorithms based on behaviors that can not be observed in the traditional settings.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained models has become the de facto strategy for developing both task-specific and general-purpose machine learning systems, including developing models that are safe to deploy. Despite its clear importance, there has been minimal work that explains how fine-tuning alters the underlying capabilities learned by a model during pretraining: does fine-tuning yield entirely novel capabilities or does it just modulate existing ones? We address this question empirically in synthetic, controlled settings where we can use mechanistic interpretability tools (e.g., network pruning and probing) to understand how the model's underlying capabilities are changing. We perform an extensive analysis of the effects of fine-tuning in these settings, and show that: (i) fine-tuning rarely alters the underlying model capabilities; (ii) a minimal transformation, which we call a 'wrapper', is typically learned on top of the underlying model capabilities, creating the illusion that they have been modified; and (iii) further fine-tuning on a task where such hidden capabilities are relevant leads to sample-efficient 'revival' of the capability, i.e., the model begins reusing these capability after only a few gradient steps. This indicates that practitioners can unintentionally remove a model's safety wrapper merely by fine-tuning it on a, e.g., superficially unrelated, downstream task. We additionally perform analysis on language models trained on the TinyStories dataset to support our claims in a more realistic setup.

Pathology diagnosis based on EEG signals and decoding brain activity holds immense importance in understanding neurological disorders. With the advancement of artificial intelligence methods and machine learning techniques, the potential for accurate data-driven diagnoses and effective treatments has grown significantly. However, applying machine learning algorithms to real-world datasets presents diverse challenges at multiple levels. The scarcity of labelled data, especially in low regime scenarios with limited availability of real patient cohorts due to high costs of recruitment, underscores the vital deployment of scaling and transfer learning techniques. In this study, we explore a real-world pathology classification task to highlight the effectiveness of data and model scaling and cross-dataset knowledge transfer. As such, we observe varying performance improvements through data scaling, indicating the need for careful evaluation and labelling. Additionally, we identify the challenges of possible negative transfer and emphasize the significance of some key components to overcome distribution shifts and potential spurious correlations and achieve positive transfer. We see improvement in the performance of the target model on the target (NMT) datasets by using the knowledge from the source dataset (TUAB) when a low amount of labelled data was available. Our findings indicate a small and generic model (e.g. ShallowNet) performs well on a single dataset, however, a larger model (e.g. TCN) performs better on transfer and learning from a larger and diverse dataset.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

When trying to gain better visibility into a machine learning model in order to understand and mitigate the associated risks, a potentially valuable source of evidence is: which training examples most contribute to a given behavior? Influence functions aim to answer a counterfactual: how would the model's parameters (and hence its outputs) change if a given sequence were added to the training set? While influence functions have produced insights for small models, they are difficult to scale to large language models (LLMs) due to the difficulty of computing an inverse-Hessian-vector product (IHVP). We use the Eigenvalue-corrected Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (EK-FAC) approximation to scale influence functions up to LLMs with up to 52 billion parameters. In our experiments, EK-FAC achieves similar accuracy to traditional influence function estimators despite the IHVP computation being orders of magnitude faster. We investigate two algorithmic techniques to reduce the cost of computing gradients of candidate training sequences: TF-IDF filtering and query batching. We use influence functions to investigate the generalization patterns of LLMs, including the sparsity of the influence patterns, increasing abstraction with scale, math and programming abilities, cross-lingual generalization, and role-playing behavior. Despite many apparently sophisticated forms of generalization, we identify a surprising limitation: influences decay to near-zero when the order of key phrases is flipped. Overall, influence functions give us a powerful new tool for studying the generalization properties of LLMs.

Misinformation - false or misleading information - is considered a significant societal concern due to its associated "misinformation effects," such as political polarization, erosion of trust in institutions, problematic behavior, and public health challenges. However, the prevailing concept is misaligned with what is studied. While misinformation focuses on instances of information about factual matters, the broad spectrum of effects often manifests at a societal level and is shaped by a wide range of interdependent factors such as identity, values, opinions, epistemologies, and disagreements. Unsurprisingly, misinformation effects can occur without the prevalence of misinformation, and misinformation does not necessarily increase the effects studied. Here, we propose using disagreement - conflicting attitudes and beliefs between individuals and communities - as a way to study misinformation effects because it addresses the identified conceptual limitations of misinformation. Furthermore, unlike misinformation, disagreement does not require researchers to determine whether a given information is false or misleading. Thus, it can be studied and, more importantly, measured without the need to make a normative judgment about a given information, even when the specific topic is entirely removed, as we show in a longitudinal disagreement measurement. We demonstrate that disagreement, as a holistic concept, provides better explanations for the occurrence of misinformation effects, enhances precision in developing appropriate interventions, and offers a promising approach for evaluating them through quantification. Finally, we show how disagreement addresses current misinformation research questions and conclude with recommendations for research practice.

There is a prevalent opinion in the recent literature that Diffusion-based models outperform GAN-based counterparts on the Image Super Resolution (ISR) problem. However, in most studies, Diffusion-based ISR models were trained longer and utilized larger networks than the GAN baselines. This raises the question of whether the superiority of Diffusion models is due to the Diffusion paradigm being better suited for the ISR task or if it is a consequence of the increased scale and computational resources used in contemporary studies. In our work, we compare Diffusion-based and GAN-based Super Resolution under controlled settings, where both approaches are matched in terms of architecture, model and dataset size, and computational budget. We show that a GAN-based model can achieve results comparable to a Diffusion-based model. Additionally, we explore the impact of design choices such as text conditioning and augmentation on the performance of ISR models, showcasing their effect on several downstream tasks. We will release the inference code and weights of our scaled GAN.

Normalization techniques are a boon for modern deep learning. They let weights converge more quickly with often better generalization performances. It has been argued that the normalization-induced scale invariance among the weights provides an advantageous ground for gradient descent (GD) optimizers: the effective step sizes are automatically reduced over time, stabilizing the overall training procedure. It is often overlooked, however, that the additional introduction of momentum in GD optimizers results in a far more rapid reduction in effective step sizes for scale-invariant weights, a phenomenon that has not yet been studied and may have caused unwanted side effects in the current practice. This is a crucial issue because arguably the vast majority of modern deep neural networks consist of (1) momentum-based GD (e.g. SGD or Adam) and (2) scale-invariant parameters. In this paper, we verify that the widely-adopted combination of the two ingredients lead to the premature decay of effective step sizes and sub-optimal model performances. We propose a simple and effective remedy, SGDP and AdamP: get rid of the radial component, or the norm-increasing direction, at each optimizer step. Because of the scale invariance, this modification only alters the effective step sizes without changing the effective update directions, thus enjoying the original convergence properties of GD optimizers. Given the ubiquity of momentum GD and scale invariance in machine learning, we have evaluated our methods against the baselines on 13 benchmarks. They range from vision tasks like classification (e.g. ImageNet), retrieval (e.g. CUB and SOP), and detection (e.g. COCO) to language modelling (e.g. WikiText) and audio classification (e.g. DCASE) tasks. We verify that our solution brings about uniform gains in those benchmarks. Source code is available at https://github.com/clovaai/AdamP.

In continual learning, catastrophic forgetting is affected by multiple aspects of the tasks. Previous works have analyzed separately how forgetting is affected by either task similarity or overparameterization. In contrast, our paper examines how task similarity and overparameterization jointly affect forgetting in an analyzable model. Specifically, we focus on two-task continual linear regression, where the second task is a random orthogonal transformation of an arbitrary first task (an abstraction of random permutation tasks). We derive an exact analytical expression for the expected forgetting - and uncover a nuanced pattern. In highly overparameterized models, intermediate task similarity causes the most forgetting. However, near the interpolation threshold, forgetting decreases monotonically with the expected task similarity. We validate our findings with linear regression on synthetic data, and with neural networks on established permutation task benchmarks.

Many problems in astrophysics cover multiple orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales. While simulating systems that experience rapid changes in these conditions, it is essential to adapt the (time-) step size to capture the behavior of the system during those rapid changes and use a less accurate time step at other, less demanding, moments. We encounter three problems with traditional methods. Firstly, making such changes requires expert knowledge of the astrophysics as well as of the details of the numerical implementation. Secondly, some parameters that determine the time-step size are fixed throughout the simulation, which means that they do not adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the problem. Lastly, we would like the choice of time-step size to balance accuracy and computation effort. We address these challenges with Reinforcement Learning by training it to select the time-step size dynamically. We use the integration of a system of three equal-mass bodies that move due to their mutual gravity as an example of its application. With our method, the selected integration parameter adapts to the specific requirements of the problem, both in terms of computation time and accuracy while eliminating the expert knowledge needed to set up these simulations. Our method produces results competitive to existing methods and improve the results found with the most commonly-used values of time-step parameter. This method can be applied to other integrators without further retraining. We show that this extrapolation works for variable time-step integrators but does not perform to the desired accuracy for fixed time-step integrators.

We propose a multitask pretraining approach ZeroPrompt for zero-shot generalization, focusing on task scaling and zero-shot prompting. While previous models are trained on only a few dozen tasks, we scale to 1,000 tasks for the first time using real-world data. This leads to a crucial discovery that task scaling can be an efficient alternative to model scaling; i.e., the model size has little impact on performance with an extremely large number of tasks. Our results show that task scaling can substantially improve training efficiency by 30 times in FLOPs. Moreover, we present a prompting method that incorporates a genetic algorithm to automatically search for the best prompt for unseen tasks, along with a few other improvements. Empirically, ZeroPrompt substantially improves both the efficiency and the performance of zero-shot learning across a variety of academic and production datasets.

To increase the availability and adoption of the soundscape standard, a low-cost calibration procedure for reproduction of audio stimuli over headphones was proposed as part of the global ``Soundscape Attributes Translation Project'' (SATP) for validating ISO/TS~12913-2:2018 perceived affective quality (PAQ) attribute translations. A previous preliminary study revealed significant deviations from the intended equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure levels (L_{A,eq}) using the open-circuit voltage (OCV) calibration procedure. For a more holistic human-centric perspective, the OCV method is further investigated here in terms of psychoacoustic parameters, including relevant exceedance levels to account for temporal effects on the same 27 stimuli from the SATP. Moreover, a within-subjects experiment with 36 participants was conducted to examine the effects of OCV calibration on the PAQ attributes in ISO/TS~12913-2:2018. Bland-Altman analysis of the objective indicators revealed large biases in the OCV method across all weighted sound level and loudness indicators; and roughness indicators at 5{\%} and 10{\%} exceedance levels. Significant perceptual differences due to the OCV method were observed in about 20{\%} of the stimuli, which did not correspond clearly with the biased acoustic indicators. A cautioned interpretation of the objective and perceptual differences due to small and unpaired samples nevertheless provide grounds for further investigation.

With the success of deep neural networks, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) as a way of automatic model design has attracted wide attention. As training every child model from scratch is very time-consuming, recent works leverage weight-sharing to speed up the model evaluation procedure. These approaches greatly reduce computation by maintaining a single copy of weights on the super-net and share the weights among every child model. However, weight-sharing has no theoretical guarantee and its impact has not been well studied before. In this paper, we conduct comprehensive experiments to reveal the impact of weight-sharing: (1) The best-performing models from different runs or even from consecutive epochs within the same run have significant variance; (2) Even with high variance, we can extract valuable information from training the super-net with shared weights; (3) The interference between child models is a main factor that induces high variance; (4) Properly reducing the degree of weight sharing could effectively reduce variance and improve performance.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

Sparse autoencoders have recently produced dictionaries of high-dimensional vectors corresponding to the universe of concepts represented by large language models. We find that this concept universe has interesting structure at three levels: 1) The "atomic" small-scale structure contains "crystals" whose faces are parallelograms or trapezoids, generalizing well-known examples such as (man-woman-king-queen). We find that the quality of such parallelograms and associated function vectors improves greatly when projecting out global distractor directions such as word length, which is efficiently done with linear discriminant analysis. 2) The "brain" intermediate-scale structure has significant spatial modularity; for example, math and code features form a "lobe" akin to functional lobes seen in neural fMRI images. We quantify the spatial locality of these lobes with multiple metrics and find that clusters of co-occurring features, at coarse enough scale, also cluster together spatially far more than one would expect if feature geometry were random. 3) The "galaxy" scale large-scale structure of the feature point cloud is not isotropic, but instead has a power law of eigenvalues with steepest slope in middle layers. We also quantify how the clustering entropy depends on the layer.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

In reinforcement learning from human feedback, it is common to optimize against a reward model trained to predict human preferences. Because the reward model is an imperfect proxy, optimizing its value too much can hinder ground truth performance, in accordance with Goodhart's law. This effect has been frequently observed, but not carefully measured due to the expense of collecting human preference data. In this work, we use a synthetic setup in which a fixed "gold-standard" reward model plays the role of humans, providing labels used to train a proxy reward model. We study how the gold reward model score changes as we optimize against the proxy reward model using either reinforcement learning or best-of-n sampling. We find that this relationship follows a different functional form depending on the method of optimization, and that in both cases its coefficients scale smoothly with the number of reward model parameters. We also study the effect on this relationship of the size of the reward model dataset, the number of reward model and policy parameters, and the coefficient of the KL penalty added to the reward in the reinforcement learning setup. We explore the implications of these empirical results for theoretical considerations in AI alignment.

Generative AI release decisions determine whether system components are made available, but release does not address many other elements that change how users and stakeholders are able to engage with a system. Beyond release, access to system components informs potential risks and benefits. Access refers to practical needs, infrastructurally, technically, and societally, in order to use available components in some way. We deconstruct access along three axes: resourcing, technical usability, and utility. Within each category, a set of variables per system component clarify tradeoffs. For example, resourcing requires access to computing infrastructure to serve model weights. We also compare the accessibility of four high performance language models, two open-weight and two closed-weight, showing similar considerations for all based instead on access variables. Access variables set the foundation for being able to scale or increase access to users; we examine the scale of access and how scale affects ability to manage and intervene on risks. This framework better encompasses the landscape and risk-benefit tradeoffs of system releases to inform system release decisions, research, and policy.

Training state-of-the-art neural networks requires a high cost in terms of compute and time. Model scale is recognized to be a critical factor to achieve and improve the state-of-the-art. Increasing the scale of a neural network normally requires restarting from scratch by randomly initializing all the parameters of the model, as this implies a change of architecture's parameters that does not allow for a straightforward transfer of knowledge from smaller size models. In this work, we propose six composable transformations to incrementally increase the size of transformer-based neural networks while preserving functionality, allowing to expand the capacity of the model as needed. We provide proof of exact function preservation under minimal initialization constraints for each transformation. The proposed methods may enable efficient training pipelines for larger and more powerful models by progressively expanding the architecture throughout training.

Foundation Models (FMs) serve as a general class for the development of artificial intelligence systems, offering broad potential for generalization across a spectrum of downstream tasks. Despite extensive research into self-supervised learning as the cornerstone of FMs, several outstanding issues persist in Graph Foundation Models that rely on graph self-supervised learning, namely: 1) Homogenization. The extent of generalization capability on downstream tasks remains unclear. 2) Scalability. It is unknown how effectively these models can scale to large datasets. 3) Efficiency. The training time and memory usage of these models require evaluation. 4) Training Stop Criteria. Determining the optimal stopping strategy for pre-training across multiple tasks to maximize performance on downstream tasks. To address these questions, we have constructed a rigorous benchmark that thoroughly analyzes and studies the generalization and scalability of self-supervised Graph Neural Network (GNN) models. Regarding generalization, we have implemented and compared the performance of various self-supervised GNN models, trained to generate node representations, across tasks such as node classification, link prediction, and node clustering. For scalability, we have compared the performance of various models after training using full-batch and mini-batch strategies. Additionally, we have assessed the training efficiency of these models by conducting experiments to test their GPU memory usage and throughput. Through these experiments, we aim to provide insights to motivate future research. The code for this benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/NYUSHCS/GraphFM.

This paper is the second in the series Commutative Scaling of Width and Depth (WD) about commutativity of infinite width and depth limits in deep neural networks. Our aim is to understand the behaviour of neural functions (functions that depend on a neural network model) as width and depth go to infinity (in some sense), and eventually identify settings under which commutativity holds, i.e. the neural function tends to the same limit no matter how width and depth limits are taken. In this paper, we formally introduce and define the commutativity framework, and discuss its implications on neural network design and scaling. We study commutativity for the neural covariance kernel which reflects how network layers separate data. Our findings extend previous results established in [55] by showing that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are suitably scaled to avoid exploding behaviour, result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This has a number of theoretical and practical implications that we discuss in the paper. The proof techniques in this paper are novel and rely on tools that are more accessible to readers who are not familiar with stochastic calculus (used in the proofs of WD(I))).

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

Fairness or equity in machine learning is profoundly important for societal well-being, but limited public datasets hinder its progress, especially in the area of medicine. It is undeniable that fairness in medicine is one of the most important areas for fairness learning's applications. Currently, no large-scale public medical datasets with 3D imaging data for fairness learning are available, while 3D imaging data in modern clinics are standard tests for disease diagnosis. In addition, existing medical fairness datasets are actually repurposed datasets, and therefore they typically have limited demographic identity attributes with at most three identity attributes of age, gender, and race for fairness modeling. To address this gap, we introduce our Eye Fairness dataset with 30,000 subjects (Harvard-EF) covering three major eye diseases including age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and glaucoma affecting 380 million patients globally. Our Harvard-EF dataset includes both 2D fundus photos and 3D optical coherence tomography scans with six demographic identity attributes including age, gender, race, ethnicity, preferred language, and marital status. We also propose a fair identity scaling (FIS) approach combining group and individual scaling together to improve model fairness. Our FIS approach is compared with various state-of-the-art fairness learning methods with superior performance in the racial, gender, and ethnicity fairness tasks with 2D and 3D imaging data, which demonstrate the utilities of our Harvard-EF dataset for fairness learning. To facilitate fairness comparisons between different models, we propose performance-scaled disparity measures, which can be used to compare model fairness accounting for overall performance levels. The dataset and code are publicly accessible via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-ef30k.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

A common way to speed up training of large convolutional networks is to add computational units. Training is then performed using data-parallel synchronous Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with mini-batch divided between computational units. With an increase in the number of nodes, the batch size grows. But training with large batch size often results in the lower model accuracy. We argue that the current recipe for large batch training (linear learning rate scaling with warm-up) is not general enough and training may diverge. To overcome this optimization difficulties we propose a new training algorithm based on Layer-wise Adaptive Rate Scaling (LARS). Using LARS, we scaled Alexnet up to a batch size of 8K, and Resnet-50 to a batch size of 32K without loss in accuracy.

Large recommendation models (LRMs) are fundamental to the multi-billion dollar online advertising industry, processing massive datasets of hundreds of billions of examples before transitioning to continuous online training to adapt to rapidly changing user behavior. The massive scale of data directly impacts both computational costs and the speed at which new methods can be evaluated (R&D velocity). This paper presents actionable principles and high-level frameworks to guide practitioners in optimizing training data requirements. These strategies have been successfully deployed in Google's largest Ads CTR prediction models and are broadly applicable beyond LRMs. We outline the concept of data convergence, describe methods to accelerate this convergence, and finally, detail how to optimally balance training data volume with model size.

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

Perception of toxicity evolves over time and often differs between geographies and cultural backgrounds. Similarly, black-box commercially available APIs for detecting toxicity, such as the Perspective API, are not static, but frequently retrained to address any unattended weaknesses and biases. We evaluate the implications of these changes on the reproducibility of findings that compare the relative merits of models and methods that aim to curb toxicity. Our findings suggest that research that relied on inherited automatic toxicity scores to compare models and techniques may have resulted in inaccurate findings. Rescoring all models from HELM, a widely respected living benchmark, for toxicity with the recent version of the API led to a different ranking of widely used foundation models. We suggest caution in applying apples-to-apples comparisons between studies and lay recommendations for a more structured approach to evaluating toxicity over time. Code and data are available at https://github.com/for-ai/black-box-api-challenges.

Ecological systems are dynamic and policies to manage them need to respond to that variation. However, policy adjustments will sometimes be costly, which means that fine-tuning a policy to track variability in the environment very tightly will only sometimes be worthwhile. We use a classic fisheries management question -- how to manage a stochastically varying population using annually varying quotas in order to maximize profit -- to examine how costs of policy adjustment change optimal management recommendations. Costs of policy adjustment (here changes in fishing quotas through time) could take different forms. For example, these costs may respond to the size of the change being implemented, or there could be a fixed cost any time a quota change is made. We show how different forms of policy costs have contrasting implications for optimal policies. Though it is frequently assumed that costs to adjusting policies will dampen variation in the policy, we show that certain cost structures can actually increase variation through time. We further show that failing to account for adjustment costs has a consistently worse economic impact than would assuming these costs are present when they are not.

The concept of negative prompts, emerging from conditional generation models like Stable Diffusion, allows users to specify what to exclude from the generated images.%, demonstrating significant practical efficacy. Despite the widespread use of negative prompts, their intrinsic mechanisms remain largely unexplored. This paper presents the first comprehensive study to uncover how and when negative prompts take effect. Our extensive empirical analysis identifies two primary behaviors of negative prompts. Delayed Effect: The impact of negative prompts is observed after positive prompts render corresponding content. Deletion Through Neutralization: Negative prompts delete concepts from the generated image through a mutual cancellation effect in latent space with positive prompts. These insights reveal significant potential real-world applications; for example, we demonstrate that negative prompts can facilitate object inpainting with minimal alterations to the background via a simple adaptive algorithm. We believe our findings will offer valuable insights for the community in capitalizing on the potential of negative prompts.

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

Recently, the Muon optimizer based on matrix orthogonalization has demonstrated strong results in training small-scale language models, but the scalability to larger models has not been proven. We identify two crucial techniques for scaling up Muon: (1) adding weight decay and (2) carefully adjusting the per-parameter update scale. These techniques allow Muon to work out-of-the-box on large-scale training without the need of hyper-parameter tuning. Scaling law experiments indicate that Muon achieves sim!2times computational efficiency compared to AdamW with compute optimal training. Based on these improvements, we introduce Moonlight, a 3B/16B-parameter Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) model trained with 5.7T tokens using Muon. Our model improves the current Pareto frontier, achieving better performance with much fewer training FLOPs compared to prior models. We open-source our distributed Muon implementation that is memory optimal and communication efficient. We also release the pretrained, instruction-tuned, and intermediate checkpoints to support future research.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

Mitigating bias in machine learning systems requires refining our understanding of bias propagation pathways: from societal structures to large-scale data to trained models to impact on society. In this work, we focus on one aspect of the problem, namely bias amplification: the tendency of models to amplify the biases present in the data they are trained on. A metric for measuring bias amplification was introduced in the seminal work by Zhao et al. (2017); however, as we demonstrate, this metric suffers from a number of shortcomings including conflating different types of bias amplification and failing to account for varying base rates of protected attributes. We introduce and analyze a new, decoupled metric for measuring bias amplification, BiasAmp_{rightarrow} (Directional Bias Amplification). We thoroughly analyze and discuss both the technical assumptions and normative implications of this metric. We provide suggestions about its measurement by cautioning against predicting sensitive attributes, encouraging the use of confidence intervals due to fluctuations in the fairness of models across runs, and discussing the limitations of what this metric captures. Throughout this paper, we work to provide an interrogative look at the technical measurement of bias amplification, guided by our normative ideas of what we want it to encompass. Code is located at https://github.com/princetonvisualai/directional-bias-amp

Visual diffusion models have revolutionized the field of creative AI, producing high-quality and diverse content. However, they inevitably memorize training images or videos, subsequently replicating their concepts, content, or styles during inference. This phenomenon raises significant concerns about privacy, security, and copyright within generated outputs. In this survey, we provide the first comprehensive review of replication in visual diffusion models, marking a novel contribution to the field by systematically categorizing the existing studies into unveiling, understanding, and mitigating this phenomenon. Specifically, unveiling mainly refers to the methods used to detect replication instances. Understanding involves analyzing the underlying mechanisms and factors that contribute to this phenomenon. Mitigation focuses on developing strategies to reduce or eliminate replication. Beyond these aspects, we also review papers focusing on its real-world influence. For instance, in the context of healthcare, replication is critically worrying due to privacy concerns related to patient data. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of the ongoing challenges, such as the difficulty in detecting and benchmarking replication, and outlines future directions including the development of more robust mitigation techniques. By synthesizing insights from diverse studies, this paper aims to equip researchers and practitioners with a deeper understanding at the intersection between AI technology and social good. We release this project at https://github.com/WangWenhao0716/Awesome-Diffusion-Replication.

In this study, we present a technique that spans multi-scale views (global scale -- meaning brain network-level and local scale -- examining each individual ROI that constitutes the network) applied to resting-state fMRI volumes. Deep learning based classification is utilized in understanding neurodegeneration. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in utilizing two extreme scales of analysis. One branch considers the entire network within graph-analysis framework. Concurrently, the second branch scrutinizes each ROI within a network independently, focusing on evolution of dynamics. For each subject, graph-based approach employs partial correlation to profile the subject in a single graph where each ROI is a node, providing insights into differences in levels of participation. In contrast, non-linear analysis employs recurrence plots to profile a subject as a multichannel 2D image, revealing distinctions in underlying dynamics. The proposed approach is employed for classification of a cohort of 50 healthy control (HC) and 50 Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), sourced from ADNI dataset. Results point to: (1) reduced activity in ROIs such as PCC in MCI (2) greater activity in occipital in MCI, which is not seen in HC (3) when analysed for dynamics, all ROIs in MCI show greater predictability in time-series.

This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.

Achieving optimal performance of video diffusion transformers within given data and compute budget is crucial due to their high training costs. This necessitates precisely determining the optimal model size and training hyperparameters before large-scale training. While scaling laws are employed in language models to predict performance, their existence and accurate derivation in visual generation models remain underexplored. In this paper, we systematically analyze scaling laws for video diffusion transformers and confirm their presence. Moreover, we discover that, unlike language models, video diffusion models are more sensitive to learning rate and batch size, two hyperparameters often not precisely modeled. To address this, we propose a new scaling law that predicts optimal hyperparameters for any model size and compute budget. Under these optimal settings, we achieve comparable performance and reduce inference costs by 40.1% compared to conventional scaling methods, within a compute budget of 1e10 TFlops. Furthermore, we establish a more generalized and precise relationship among validation loss, any model size, and compute budget. This enables performance prediction for non-optimal model sizes, which may also be appealed under practical inference cost constraints, achieving a better trade-off.

Self-supervised learning aims to learn representations from the data itself without explicit manual supervision. Existing efforts ignore a crucial aspect of self-supervised learning - the ability to scale to large amount of data because self-supervision requires no manual labels. In this work, we revisit this principle and scale two popular self-supervised approaches to 100 million images. We show that by scaling on various axes (including data size and problem 'hardness'), one can largely match or even exceed the performance of supervised pre-training on a variety of tasks such as object detection, surface normal estimation (3D) and visual navigation using reinforcement learning. Scaling these methods also provides many interesting insights into the limitations of current self-supervised techniques and evaluations. We conclude that current self-supervised methods are not 'hard' enough to take full advantage of large scale data and do not seem to learn effective high level semantic representations. We also introduce an extensive benchmark across 9 different datasets and tasks. We believe that such a benchmark along with comparable evaluation settings is necessary to make meaningful progress. Code is at: https://github.com/facebookresearch/fair_self_supervision_benchmark.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

The recent breakthrough successes in machine learning are mainly attributed to scale: namely large-scale attention-based architectures and datasets of unprecedented scale. This paper investigates the impact of training at scale for chess. Unlike traditional chess engines that rely on complex heuristics, explicit search, or a combination of both, we train a 270M parameter transformer model with supervised learning on a dataset of 10 million chess games. We annotate each board in the dataset with action-values provided by the powerful Stockfish 16 engine, leading to roughly 15 billion data points. Our largest model reaches a Lichess blitz Elo of 2895 against humans, and successfully solves a series of challenging chess puzzles, without any domain-specific tweaks or explicit search algorithms. We also show that our model outperforms AlphaZero's policy and value networks (without MCTS) and GPT-3.5-turbo-instruct. A systematic investigation of model and dataset size shows that strong chess performance only arises at sufficient scale. To validate our results, we perform an extensive series of ablations of design choices and hyperparameters.

The measure of a machine learning algorithm is the difficulty of the tasks it can perform, and sufficiently difficult tasks are critical drivers of strong machine learning models. However, quantifying the generalization difficulty of machine learning benchmarks has remained challenging. We propose what is to our knowledge the first model-agnostic measure of the inherent generalization difficulty of tasks. Our inductive bias complexity measure quantifies the total information required to generalize well on a task minus the information provided by the data. It does so by measuring the fractional volume occupied by hypotheses that generalize on a task given that they fit the training data. It scales exponentially with the intrinsic dimensionality of the space over which the model must generalize but only polynomially in resolution per dimension, showing that tasks which require generalizing over many dimensions are drastically more difficult than tasks involving more detail in fewer dimensions. Our measure can be applied to compute and compare supervised learning, reinforcement learning and meta-learning generalization difficulties against each other. We show that applied empirically, it formally quantifies intuitively expected trends, e.g. that in terms of required inductive bias, MNIST < CIFAR10 < Imagenet and fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs) < partially observable MDPs. Further, we show that classification of complex images < few-shot meta-learning with simple images. Our measure provides a quantitative metric to guide the construction of more complex tasks requiring greater inductive bias, and thereby encourages the development of more sophisticated architectures and learning algorithms with more powerful generalization capabilities.

Recent advances in visual generation have made significant strides in producing content of exceptional quality. However, most methods suffer from a fundamental problem - a bottleneck of inference computational efficiency. Most of these algorithms involve multiple passes over a transformer model to generate tokens or denoise inputs. However, the model size is kept consistent throughout all iterations, which makes it computationally expensive. In this work, we aim to address this issue primarily through two key ideas - (a) not all parts of the generation process need equal compute, and we design a decode time model scaling schedule to utilize compute effectively, and (b) we can cache and reuse some of the computation. Combining these two ideas leads to using smaller models to process more tokens while large models process fewer tokens. These different-sized models do not increase the parameter size, as they share parameters. We rigorously experiment with ImageNet256times256 , UCF101, and Kinetics600 to showcase the efficacy of the proposed method for image/video generation and frame prediction. Our experiments show that with almost 3times less compute than baseline, our model obtains competitive performance.

Exposure to large language model output is rapidly increasing. How will seeing AI-generated ideas affect human ideas? We conducted an experiment (800+ participants, 40+ countries) where participants viewed creative ideas that were from ChatGPT or prior experimental participants and then brainstormed their own idea. We varied the number of AI-generated examples (none, low, or high exposure) and if the examples were labeled as 'AI' (disclosure). Our dynamic experiment design -- ideas from prior participants in an experimental condition are used as stimuli for future participants in the same experimental condition -- mimics the interdependent process of cultural creation: creative ideas are built upon prior ideas. Hence, we capture the compounding effects of having LLMs 'in the culture loop'. We find that high AI exposure (but not low AI exposure) did not affect the creativity of individual ideas but did increase the average amount and rate of change of collective idea diversity. AI made ideas different, not better. There were no main effects of disclosure. We also found that self-reported creative people were less influenced by knowing an idea was from AI, and that participants were more likely to knowingly adopt AI ideas when the task was difficult. Our findings suggest that introducing AI ideas into society may increase collective diversity but not individual creativity.

Plasticity, the ability of a neural network to quickly change its predictions in response to new information, is essential for the adaptability and robustness of deep reinforcement learning systems. Deep neural networks are known to lose plasticity over the course of training even in relatively simple learning problems, but the mechanisms driving this phenomenon are still poorly understood. This paper conducts a systematic empirical analysis into plasticity loss, with the goal of understanding the phenomenon mechanistically in order to guide the future development of targeted solutions. We find that loss of plasticity is deeply connected to changes in the curvature of the loss landscape, but that it typically occurs in the absence of saturated units or divergent gradient norms. Based on this insight, we identify a number of parameterization and optimization design choices which enable networks to better preserve plasticity over the course of training. We validate the utility of these findings in larger-scale learning problems by applying the best-performing intervention, layer normalization, to a deep RL agent trained on the Arcade Learning Environment.

Deep neural networks have shown promise for music audio signal processing applications, often surpassing prior approaches, particularly as end-to-end models in the waveform domain. Yet results to date have tended to be constrained by low sample rates, noise, narrow domains of signal types, and/or lack of parameterized controls (i.e. "knobs"), making their suitability for professional audio engineering workflows still lacking. This work expands on prior research published on modeling nonlinear time-dependent signal processing effects associated with music production by means of a deep neural network, one which includes the ability to emulate the parameterized settings you would see on an analog piece of equipment, with the goal of eventually producing commercially viable, high quality audio, i.e. 44.1 kHz sampling rate at 16-bit resolution. The results in this paper highlight progress in modeling these effects through architecture and optimization changes, towards increasing computational efficiency, lowering signal-to-noise ratio, and extending to a larger variety of nonlinear audio effects. Toward these ends, the strategies employed involved a three-pronged approach: model speed, model accuracy, and model generalizability. Most of the presented methods provide marginal or no increase in output accuracy over the original model, with the exception of dataset manipulation. We found that limiting the audio content of the dataset, for example using datasets of just a single instrument, provided a significant improvement in model accuracy over models trained on more general datasets.

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.

Neural networks often suffer from catastrophic interference (CI): performance on previously learned tasks drops off significantly when learning a new task. This contrasts strongly with humans, who can sequentially learn new tasks without appreciably forgetting previous tasks. Prior work has explored various techniques for mitigating CI such as regularization, rehearsal, generative replay, and distillation methods. The current work takes a different approach, one guided by cognitive science research showing that in naturalistic environments, the probability of encountering a task decreases as a power-law of the time since it was last performed. We argue that a realistic evaluation of techniques for the mitigation of CI should be performed in simulated naturalistic learning environments. Thus, we evaluate the extent of mitigation of CI when training simple rehearsal-based methods in power-law environments similar to the ones humans face. Our work explores this novel rehearsal-based approach for a domain-incremental task: learning permutations in the MNIST task. We compare our rehearsal environment with other baselines to show its efficacy in promoting continual learning. Additionally, we investigate whether this environment shows forward facilitation, i.e., faster learning of later tasks. Next, we explore the robustness of our learning environment to the number of tasks, model size, and amount of data rehearsed after each task. Notably, our results show that the performance is comparable or superior to that of models trained using popular regularization methods and also to rehearsals in non-power-law environments. The benefits of this training paradigm include simplicity and the lack of a need for extra neural circuitry. In addition, because our method is orthogonal to other methods, future research can combine training in power-law environments with other continual learning mechanisms.

Online competitive action games have flourished as a space for entertainment and social connections, yet they face challenges from a small percentage of players engaging in disruptive behaviors. This study delves into the under-explored realm of understanding the effects of moderation on player behavior within online gaming on an example of a popular title - Call of Duty(R): Modern Warfare(R)II. We employ a quasi-experimental design and causal inference techniques to examine the impact of moderation in a real-world industry-scale moderation system. We further delve into novel aspects around the impact of delayed moderation, as well as the severity of applied punishment. We examine these effects on a set of four disruptive behaviors including cheating, offensive user name, chat, and voice. Our findings uncover the dual impact moderation has on reducing disruptive behavior and discouraging disruptive players from participating. We further uncover differences in the effectiveness of quick and delayed moderation and the varying severity of punishment. Our examination of real-world gaming interactions sets a precedent in understanding the effectiveness of moderation and its impact on player behavior. Our insights offer actionable suggestions for the most promising avenues for improving real-world moderation practices, as well as the heterogeneous impact moderation has on indifferent players.

Diffusion models currently dominate the field of data-driven image synthesis with their unparalleled scaling to large datasets. In this paper, we identify and rectify several causes for uneven and ineffective training in the popular ADM diffusion model architecture, without altering its high-level structure. Observing uncontrolled magnitude changes and imbalances in both the network activations and weights over the course of training, we redesign the network layers to preserve activation, weight, and update magnitudes on expectation. We find that systematic application of this philosophy eliminates the observed drifts and imbalances, resulting in considerably better networks at equal computational complexity. Our modifications improve the previous record FID of 2.41 in ImageNet-512 synthesis to 1.81, achieved using fast deterministic sampling. As an independent contribution, we present a method for setting the exponential moving average (EMA) parameters post-hoc, i.e., after completing the training run. This allows precise tuning of EMA length without the cost of performing several training runs, and reveals its surprising interactions with network architecture, training time, and guidance.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

Pre-trained language models, despite their rapid advancements powered by scale, still fall short of robust commonsense capabilities. And yet, scale appears to be the winning recipe; after all, the largest models seem to have acquired the largest amount of commonsense capabilities. Or is it? In this paper, we investigate the possibility of a seemingly impossible match: can smaller language models with dismal commonsense capabilities (i.e., GPT-2), ever win over models that are orders of magnitude larger and better (i.e., GPT-3), if the smaller models are powered with novel commonsense distillation algorithms? The key intellectual question we ask here is whether it is possible, if at all, to design a learning algorithm that does not benefit from scale, yet leads to a competitive level of commonsense acquisition. In this work, we study the generative models of commonsense knowledge, focusing on the task of generating generics, statements of commonsense facts about everyday concepts, e.g., birds can fly. We introduce a novel commonsense distillation framework, I2D2, that loosely follows the Symbolic Knowledge Distillation of West et al. but breaks the dependence on the extreme-scale models as the teacher model by two innovations: (1) the novel adaptation of NeuroLogic Decoding to enhance the generation quality of the weak, off-the-shelf language models, and (2) self-imitation learning to iteratively learn from the model's own enhanced commonsense acquisition capabilities. Empirical results suggest that scale is not the only way, as novel algorithms can be a promising alternative. Moreover, our study leads to a new corpus of generics, Gen-A-Tomic, that is of the largest and highest quality available to date.

Previous work has highlighted that existing post-hoc explanation methods exhibit disparities in explanation fidelity (across 'race' and 'gender' as sensitive attributes), and while a large body of work focuses on mitigating these issues at the explanation metric level, the role of the data generating process and black box model in relation to explanation disparities remains largely unexplored. Accordingly, through both simulations as well as experiments on a real-world dataset, we specifically assess challenges to explanation disparities that originate from properties of the data: limited sample size, covariate shift, concept shift, omitted variable bias, and challenges based on model properties: inclusion of the sensitive attribute and appropriate functional form. Through controlled simulation analyses, our study demonstrates that increased covariate shift, concept shift, and omission of covariates increase explanation disparities, with the effect pronounced higher for neural network models that are better able to capture the underlying functional form in comparison to linear models. We also observe consistent findings regarding the effect of concept shift and omitted variable bias on explanation disparities in the Adult income dataset. Overall, results indicate that disparities in model explanations can also depend on data and model properties. Based on this systematic investigation, we provide recommendations for the design of explanation methods that mitigate undesirable disparities.

I present a new way to parallelize the training of convolutional neural networks across multiple GPUs. The method scales significantly better than all alternatives when applied to modern convolutional neural networks.

We apply augmentations to our dataset to enhance the quality of our predictions and make our final models more resilient to noisy data and domain drifts. Yet the question remains, how are these augmentations going to perform with different hyper-parameters? In this study we evaluate the sensitivity of augmentations with regards to the model's hyper parameters along with their consistency and influence by performing a Local Surrogate (LIME) interpretation on the impact of hyper-parameters when different augmentations are applied to a machine learning model. We have utilized Linear regression coefficients for weighing each augmentation. Our research has proved that there are some augmentations which are highly sensitive to hyper-parameters and others which are more resilient and reliable.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

Novel machine learning methods for tabular data generation are often developed on small datasets which do not match the scale required for scientific applications. We investigate a recent proposal to use XGBoost as the function approximator in diffusion and flow-matching models on tabular data, which proved to be extremely memory intensive, even on tiny datasets. In this work, we conduct a critical analysis of the existing implementation from an engineering perspective, and show that these limitations are not fundamental to the method; with better implementation it can be scaled to datasets 370x larger than previously used. Our efficient implementation also unlocks scaling models to much larger sizes which we show directly leads to improved performance on benchmark tasks. We also propose algorithmic improvements that can further benefit resource usage and model performance, including multi-output trees which are well-suited to generative modeling. Finally, we present results on large-scale scientific datasets derived from experimental particle physics as part of the Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge. Code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/calo-forest.

Writing an ad text that attracts people and persuades them to click or act is essential for the success of search engine advertising. Therefore, ad creators must consider various aspects of advertising appeals (A^3) such as the price, product features, and quality. However, products and services exhibit unique effective A^3 for different industries. In this work, we focus on exploring the effective A^3 for different industries with the aim of assisting the ad creation process. To this end, we created a dataset of advertising appeals and used an existing model that detects various aspects for ad texts. Our experiments demonstrated that different industries have their own effective A^3 and that the identification of the A^3 contributes to the estimation of advertising performance.

We identify incremental learning dynamics in transformers, where the difference between trained and initial weights progressively increases in rank. We rigorously prove this occurs under the simplifying assumptions of diagonal weight matrices and small initialization. Our experiments support the theory and also show that phenomenon can occur in practice without the simplifying assumptions.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

Large pre-trained models, or foundation models, have shown impressive performance when adapted to a variety of downstream tasks, often out-performing specialized models. Hypernetworks, neural networks that generate some or all of the parameters of another neural network, have become an increasingly important technique for conditioning and generalizing implicit neural representations (INRs), which represent signals or objects such as audio or 3D shapes using a neural network. However, despite the potential benefits of incorporating foundation models in hypernetwork methods, this research direction has not been investigated, likely due to the dissimilarity of the weight generation task with other visual tasks. To address this gap, we (1) show how foundation models can improve hypernetworks with Transformer-based architectures, (2) provide an empirical analysis of the benefits of foundation models for hypernetworks through the lens of the generalizable INR task, showing that leveraging foundation models improves performance, generalizability, and data efficiency across a variety of algorithms and modalities. We also provide further analysis in examining the design space of foundation model-based hypernetworks, including examining the choice of foundation models, algorithms, and the effect of scaling foundation models.

We analyze a family of large language models in such a lightweight manner that can be done on a single GPU. Specifically, we focus on the OPT family of models ranging from 125m to 66b parameters and rely only on whether an FFN neuron is activated or not. First, we find that the early part of the network is sparse and represents many discrete features. Here, many neurons (more than 70% in some layers of the 66b model) are "dead", i.e. they never activate on a large collection of diverse data. At the same time, many of the alive neurons are reserved for discrete features and act as token and n-gram detectors. Interestingly, their corresponding FFN updates not only promote next token candidates as could be expected, but also explicitly focus on removing the information about triggering them tokens, i.e., current input. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of mechanisms specialized at removing (rather than adding) information from the residual stream. With scale, models become more sparse in a sense that they have more dead neurons and token detectors. Finally, some neurons are positional: them being activated or not depends largely (or solely) on position and less so (or not at all) on textual data. We find that smaller models have sets of neurons acting as position range indicators while larger models operate in a less explicit manner.

We show that deep neural networks (DNNs) can efficiently learn any composition of functions with bounded F_{1}-norm, which allows DNNs to break the curse of dimensionality in ways that shallow networks cannot. More specifically, we derive a generalization bound that combines a covering number argument for compositionality, and the F_{1}-norm (or the related Barron norm) for large width adaptivity. We show that the global minimizer of the regularized loss of DNNs can fit for example the composition of two functions f^{*}=hcirc g from a small number of observations, assuming g is smooth/regular and reduces the dimensionality (e.g. g could be the modulo map of the symmetries of f^{*}), so that h can be learned in spite of its low regularity. The measures of regularity we consider is the Sobolev norm with different levels of differentiability, which is well adapted to the F_{1} norm. We compute scaling laws empirically and observe phase transitions depending on whether g or h is harder to learn, as predicted by our theory.

Machine learning models are now able to convert user-written text descriptions into naturalistic images. These models are available to anyone online and are being used to generate millions of images a day. We investigate these models and find that they amplify dangerous and complex stereotypes. Moreover, we find that the amplified stereotypes are difficult to predict and not easily mitigated by users or model owners. The extent to which these image-generation models perpetuate and amplify stereotypes and their mass deployment is cause for serious concern.

Building upon our previous investigations of O1 replication (Part 1: Journey Learning [Qin et al., 2024] and Part 2: Distillation [Huang et al., 2024]), this work explores the potential of inference-time scaling in large language models (LLMs) for medical reasoning tasks, ranging from diagnostic decision-making to treatment planning. Through extensive experiments on medical benchmarks of varying complexity (MedQA, Medbullets, and JAMA Clinical Challenges), our investigation reveals several key insights: (1) Increasing inference time does lead to improved performance. With a modest training set of 500 samples, our model yields substantial performance improvements of 6%-11%. (2) Task complexity directly correlates with the required length of reasoning chains, confirming the necessity of extended thought processes for challenging problems. (3) The differential diagnoses generated by our model adhere to the principles of the hypothetico-deductive method, producing a list of potential conditions that may explain a patient's symptoms and systematically narrowing these possibilities by evaluating the evidence. These findings demonstrate the promising synergy between inference-time scaling and journey learning in advancing LLMs' real-world clinical reasoning capabilities.

Neural network training relies on our ability to find "good" minimizers of highly non-convex loss functions. It is well-known that certain network architecture designs (e.g., skip connections) produce loss functions that train easier, and well-chosen training parameters (batch size, learning rate, optimizer) produce minimizers that generalize better. However, the reasons for these differences, and their effects on the underlying loss landscape, are not well understood. In this paper, we explore the structure of neural loss functions, and the effect of loss landscapes on generalization, using a range of visualization methods. First, we introduce a simple "filter normalization" method that helps us visualize loss function curvature and make meaningful side-by-side comparisons between loss functions. Then, using a variety of visualizations, we explore how network architecture affects the loss landscape, and how training parameters affect the shape of minimizers.