Daily Papers

We define and study a probability monad on the category of complete metric spaces and short maps. It assigns to each space the space of Radon probability measures on it with finite first moment, equipped with the Kantorovich-Wasserstein distance. This monad is analogous to the Giry monad on the category of Polish spaces, and it extends a construction due to van Breugel for compact and for 1-bounded complete metric spaces. We prove that this Kantorovich monad arises from a colimit construction on finite power-like constructions, which formalizes the intuition that probability measures are limits of finite samples. The proof relies on a criterion for when an ordinary left Kan extension of lax monoidal functors is a monoidal Kan extension. The colimit characterization allows the development of integration theory and the treatment of measures on spaces of measures, without measure theory. We also show that the category of algebras of the Kantorovich monad is equivalent to the category of closed convex subsets of Banach spaces with short affine maps as morphisms.

We consider three monads on Top, the category of topological spaces, which formalize topological aspects of probability and possibility in categorical terms. The first one is the Hoare hyperspace monad H, which assigns to every space its space of closed subsets equipped with the lower Vietoris topology. The second is the monad V of continuous valuations, also known as the extended probabilistic powerdomain. We construct both monads in a unified way in terms of double dualization. This reveals a close analogy between them, and allows us to prove that the operation of taking the support of a continuous valuation is a morphism of monads from V to H. In particular, this implies that every H-algebra (topological complete semilattice) is also a V-algebra. Third, we show that V can be restricted to a submonad of tau-smooth probability measures on Top. By composing these two morphisms of monads, we obtain that taking the support of a tau-smooth probability measure is also a morphism of monads.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Mesh deformation plays a pivotal role in many 3D vision tasks including dynamic simulations, rendering, and reconstruction. However, defining an efficient discrepancy between predicted and target meshes remains an open problem. A prevalent approach in current deep learning is the set-based approach which measures the discrepancy between two surfaces by comparing two randomly sampled point-clouds from the two meshes with Chamfer pseudo-distance. Nevertheless, the set-based approach still has limitations such as lacking a theoretical guarantee for choosing the number of points in sampled point-clouds, and the pseudo-metricity and the quadratic complexity of the Chamfer divergence. To address these issues, we propose a novel metric for learning mesh deformation. The metric is defined by sliced Wasserstein distance on meshes represented as probability measures that generalize the set-based approach. By leveraging probability measure space, we gain flexibility in encoding meshes using diverse forms of probability measures, such as continuous, empirical, and discrete measures via varifold representation. After having encoded probability measures, we can compare meshes by using the sliced Wasserstein distance which is an effective optimal transport distance with linear computational complexity and can provide a fast statistical rate for approximating the surface of meshes. To the end, we employ a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) to deform the input surface into the target shape by modeling the trajectories of the points on the surface. Our experiments on cortical surface reconstruction demonstrate that our approach surpasses other competing methods in multiple datasets and metrics.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to treat collocation grids probabilistically as random variables to be marginalised out. Adapting this spatial statistics view, we solve forward and inverse problems for parametric PDEs in a way that leads to the construction of Gaussian process models of solution fields. The implementation of these random grids poses a unique set of challenges for inverse physics informed deep learning frameworks and we propose a new architecture called Grid Invariant Convolutional Networks (GICNets) to overcome these challenges. We further show how to incorporate noisy data in a principled manner into our physics informed model to improve predictions for problems where data may be available but whose measurement location does not coincide with any fixed mesh or grid. The proposed method is tested on a nonlinear Poisson problem, Burgers equation, and Navier-Stokes equations, and we provide extensive numerical comparisons. We demonstrate significant computational advantages over current physics informed neural learning methods for parametric PDEs while improving the predictive capabilities and flexibility of these models.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

Max sliced Wasserstein (Max-SW) distance has been widely known as a solution for less discriminative projections of sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance. In applications that have various independent pairs of probability measures, amortized projection optimization is utilized to predict the ``max" projecting directions given two input measures instead of using projected gradient ascent multiple times. Despite being efficient, Max-SW and its amortized version cannot guarantee metricity property due to the sub-optimality of the projected gradient ascent and the amortization gap. Therefore, we propose to replace Max-SW with distributional sliced Wasserstein distance with von Mises-Fisher (vMF) projecting distribution (v-DSW). Since v-DSW is a metric with any non-degenerate vMF distribution, its amortized version can guarantee the metricity when performing amortization. Furthermore, current amortized models are not permutation invariant and symmetric. To address the issue, we design amortized models based on self-attention architecture. In particular, we adopt efficient self-attention architectures to make the computation linear in the number of supports. With the two improvements, we derive self-attention amortized distributional projection optimization and show its appealing performance in point-cloud reconstruction and its downstream applications.

The optimal transport problem for measures supported on non-Euclidean spaces has recently gained ample interest in diverse applications involving representation learning. In this paper, we focus on circular probability measures, i.e., probability measures supported on the unit circle, and introduce a new computationally efficient metric for these measures, denoted as Linear Circular Optimal Transport (LCOT). The proposed metric comes with an explicit linear embedding that allows one to apply Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to the embedded measures and seamlessly modify the underlying metric for the ML algorithm to LCOT. We show that the proposed metric is rooted in the Circular Optimal Transport (COT) and can be considered the linearization of the COT metric with respect to a fixed reference measure. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed metric and derive the computational complexities for pairwise comparison of circular probability measures. Lastly, through a set of numerical experiments, we demonstrate the benefits of LCOT in learning representations of circular measures.

Particle gradient descent, which uses particles to represent a probability measure and performs gradient descent on particles in parallel, is widely used to optimize functions of probability measures. This paper considers particle gradient descent with a finite number of particles and establishes its theoretical guarantees to optimize functions that are displacement convex in measures. Concretely, for Lipschitz displacement convex functions defined on probability over R^d, we prove that O(1/epsilon^2) particles and O(d/epsilon^4) computations are sufficient to find the epsilon-optimal solutions. We further provide improved complexity bounds for optimizing smooth displacement convex functions. We demonstrate the application of our results for function approximation with specific neural architectures with two-dimensional inputs.

Optimal transport (OT) theory has been been used in machine learning to study and characterize maps that can push-forward efficiently a probability measure onto another. Recent works have drawn inspiration from Brenier's theorem, which states that when the ground cost is the squared-Euclidean distance, the ``best'' map to morph a continuous measure in P(Rd) into another must be the gradient of a convex function. To exploit that result, [Makkuva+ 2020, Korotin+2020] consider maps T=nabla f_theta, where f_theta is an input convex neural network (ICNN), as defined by Amos+2017, and fit theta with SGD using samples. Despite their mathematical elegance, fitting OT maps with ICNNs raises many challenges, due notably to the many constraints imposed on theta; the need to approximate the conjugate of f_theta; or the limitation that they only work for the squared-Euclidean cost. More generally, we question the relevance of using Brenier's result, which only applies to densities, to constrain the architecture of candidate maps fitted on samples. Motivated by these limitations, we propose a radically different approach to estimating OT maps: Given a cost c and a reference measure rho, we introduce a regularizer, the Monge gap M^c_{rho}(T) of a map T. That gap quantifies how far a map T deviates from the ideal properties we expect from a c-OT map. In practice, we drop all architecture requirements for T and simply minimize a distance (e.g., the Sinkhorn divergence) between Tsharpmu and nu, regularized by M^c_rho(T). We study M^c_{rho}, and show how our simple pipeline outperforms significantly other baselines in practice.

Failure of machine learning models to generalize to new data is a core problem limiting the reliability of AI systems, partly due to the lack of simple and robust methods for comparing new data to the original training dataset. We propose a standardized approach for assessing data similarity in a model-agnostic manner by constructing a supervised autoencoder for generalizability estimation (SAGE). We compare points in a low-dimensional embedded latent space, defining empirical probability measures for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) distance, reconstruction of inputs and task-based performance. As proof of concept for classification tasks, we use MNIST and CIFAR-10 to demonstrate how an ensemble output probability score can separate deformed images from a mixture of typical test examples, and how this SAGE score is robust to transformations of increasing severity. As further proof of concept, we extend this approach to a regression task using non-imaging data (UCI Abalone). In all cases, we show that out-of-the-box model performance increases after SAGE score filtering, even when applied to data from the model's own training and test datasets. Our out-of-distribution scoring method can be introduced during several steps of model construction and assessment, leading to future improvements in responsible deep learning implementation.

Robust reinforcement learning is essential for deploying reinforcement learning algorithms in real-world scenarios where environmental uncertainty predominates. Traditional robust reinforcement learning often depends on rectangularity assumptions, where adverse probability measures of outcome states are assumed to be independent across different states and actions. This assumption, rarely fulfilled in practice, leads to overly conservative policies. To address this problem, we introduce a new time-constrained robust MDP (TC-RMDP) formulation that considers multifactorial, correlated, and time-dependent disturbances, thus more accurately reflecting real-world dynamics. This formulation goes beyond the conventional rectangularity paradigm, offering new perspectives and expanding the analytical framework for robust RL. We propose three distinct algorithms, each using varying levels of environmental information, and evaluate them extensively on continuous control benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that these algorithms yield an efficient tradeoff between performance and robustness, outperforming traditional deep robust RL methods in time-constrained environments while preserving robustness in classical benchmarks. This study revisits the prevailing assumptions in robust RL and opens new avenues for developing more practical and realistic RL applications.

High-quality supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data are crucial for eliciting strong capabilities from pretrained large language models (LLMs). Typically, instructions are paired with multiple responses sampled from other LLMs, which are often out of the distribution of the target model to be fine-tuned. This, at scale, can lead to diminishing returns and even hurt the models' performance and robustness. We propose **GRAPE**, a novel SFT framework that accounts for the unique characteristics of the target model. For each instruction, it gathers responses from various LLMs and selects the one with the highest probability measured by the target model, indicating that it aligns most closely with the target model's pretrained distribution; it then proceeds with standard SFT training. We first evaluate GRAPE with a controlled experiment, where we sample various solutions for each question in UltraInteract from multiple models and fine-tune commonly used LMs like LLaMA3.1-8B, Mistral-7B, and Qwen2.5-7B on GRAPE-selected data. GRAPE significantly outperforms strong baselines, including distilling from the strongest model with an absolute gain of up to 13.8%, averaged across benchmarks, and training on 3x more data with a maximum performance improvement of 17.3%. GRAPE's strong performance generalizes to realistic settings. We experiment with the post-training data used for Tulu3 and Olmo-2. GRAPE outperforms strong baselines trained on 4.5 times more data by 6.1% and a state-of-the-art data selection approach by 3% on average performance. Remarkably, using 1/3 of the data and half the number of epochs, GRAPE enables LLaMA3.1-8B to surpass the performance of Tulu3-SFT by 3.5%.

Optimal transport (OT) theory focuses, among all maps T:R^drightarrow R^d that can morph a probability measure onto another, on those that are the ``thriftiest'', i.e. such that the averaged cost c(x, T(x)) between x and its image T(x) be as small as possible. Many computational approaches have been proposed to estimate such Monge maps when c is the ell_2^2 distance, e.g., using entropic maps [Pooladian'22], or neural networks [Makkuva'20, Korotin'20]. We propose a new model for transport maps, built on a family of translation invariant costs c(x, y):=h(x-y), where h:=1{2}|cdot|_2^2+tau and tau is a regularizer. We propose a generalization of the entropic map suitable for h, and highlight a surprising link tying it with the Bregman centroids of the divergence D_h generated by h, and the proximal operator of tau. We show that choosing a sparsity-inducing norm for tau results in maps that apply Occam's razor to transport, in the sense that the displacement vectors Delta(x):= T(x)-x they induce are sparse, with a sparsity pattern that varies depending on x. We showcase the ability of our method to estimate meaningful OT maps for high-dimensional single-cell transcription data, in the 34000-d space of gene counts for cells, without using dimensionality reduction, thus retaining the ability to interpret all displacements at the gene level.

In the realm of computer vision and graphics, accurately establishing correspondences between geometric 3D shapes is pivotal for applications like object tracking, registration, texture transfer, and statistical shape analysis. Moving beyond traditional hand-crafted and data-driven feature learning methods, we incorporate spectral methods with deep learning, focusing on functional maps (FMs) and optimal transport (OT). Traditional OT-based approaches, often reliant on entropy regularization OT in learning-based framework, face computational challenges due to their quadratic cost. Our key contribution is to employ the sliced Wasserstein distance (SWD) for OT, which is a valid fast optimal transport metric in an unsupervised shape matching framework. This unsupervised framework integrates functional map regularizers with a novel OT-based loss derived from SWD, enhancing feature alignment between shapes treated as discrete probability measures. We also introduce an adaptive refinement process utilizing entropy regularized OT, further refining feature alignments for accurate point-to-point correspondences. Our method demonstrates superior performance in non-rigid shape matching, including near-isometric and non-isometric scenarios, and excels in downstream tasks like segmentation transfer. The empirical results on diverse datasets highlight our framework's effectiveness and generalization capabilities, setting new standards in non-rigid shape matching with efficient OT metrics and an adaptive refinement module.

We propose a new method called the N-particle underdamped Langevin algorithm for optimizing a special class of non-linear functionals defined over the space of probability measures. Examples of problems with this formulation include training mean-field neural networks, maximum mean discrepancy minimization and kernel Stein discrepancy minimization. Our algorithm is based on a novel spacetime discretization of the mean-field underdamped Langevin dynamics, for which we provide a new, fast mixing guarantee. In addition, we demonstrate that our algorithm converges globally in total variation distance, bridging the theoretical gap between the dynamics and its practical implementation.

Monte Carlo (MC) integration has been employed as the standard approximation method for the Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance, whose analytical expression involves an intractable expectation. However, MC integration is not optimal in terms of absolute approximation error. To provide a better class of empirical SW, we propose quasi-sliced Wasserstein (QSW) approximations that rely on Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. For a comprehensive investigation of QMC for SW, we focus on the 3D setting, specifically computing the SW between probability measures in three dimensions. In greater detail, we empirically evaluate various methods to construct QMC point sets on the 3D unit-hypersphere, including the Gaussian-based and equal area mappings, generalized spiral points, and optimizing discrepancy energies. Furthermore, to obtain an unbiased estimator for stochastic optimization, we extend QSW to Randomized Quasi-Sliced Wasserstein (RQSW) by introducing randomness in the discussed point sets. Theoretically, we prove the asymptotic convergence of QSW and the unbiasedness of RQSW. Finally, we conduct experiments on various 3D tasks, such as point-cloud comparison, point-cloud interpolation, image style transfer, and training deep point-cloud autoencoders, to demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed QSW and RQSW variants.

Finding the mixed Nash equilibria (MNE) of a two-player zero sum continuous game is an important and challenging problem in machine learning. A canonical algorithm to finding the MNE is the noisy gradient descent ascent method which in the infinite particle limit gives rise to the {\em Mean-Field Gradient Descent Ascent} (GDA) dynamics on the space of probability measures. In this paper, we first study the convergence of a two-scale Mean-Field GDA dynamics for finding the MNE of the entropy-regularized objective. More precisely we show that for each finite temperature (or regularization parameter), the two-scale Mean-Field GDA with a suitable {\em finite} scale ratio converges exponentially to the unique MNE without assuming the convexity or concavity of the interaction potential. The key ingredient of our proof lies in the construction of new Lyapunov functions that dissipate exponentially along the Mean-Field GDA. We further study the simulated annealing of the Mean-Field GDA dynamics. We show that with a temperature schedule that decays logarithmically in time the annealed Mean-Field GDA converges to the MNE of the original unregularized objective.

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a general paradigm for studying intelligent behaviour, with applications ranging from artificial intelligence to psychology and economics. AIXI is a universal solution to the RL problem; it can learn any computable environment. A technical subtlety of AIXI is that it is defined using a mixture over semimeasures that need not sum to 1, rather than over proper probability measures. In this work we argue that the shortfall of a semimeasure can naturally be interpreted as the agent's estimate of the probability of its death. We formally define death for generally intelligent agents like AIXI, and prove a number of related theorems about their behaviour. Notable discoveries include that agent behaviour can change radically under positive linear transformations of the reward signal (from suicidal to dogmatically self-preserving), and that the agent's posterior belief that it will survive increases over time.

Large language models (LLMs) are notorious for hallucinating, i.e., producing erroneous claims in their output. Such hallucinations can be dangerous, as occasional factual inaccuracies in the generated text might be obscured by the rest of the output being generally factual, making it extremely hard for the users to spot them. Current services that leverage LLMs usually do not provide any means for detecting unreliable generations. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we propose a novel fact-checking and hallucination detection pipeline based on token-level uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty scores leverage information encapsulated in the output of a neural network or its layers to detect unreliable predictions, and we show that they can be used to fact-check the atomic claims in the LLM output. Moreover, we present a novel token-level uncertainty quantification method that removes the impact of uncertainty about what claim to generate on the current step and what surface form to use. Our method Claim Conditioned Probability (CCP) measures only the uncertainty of particular claim value expressed by the model. Experiments on the task of biography generation demonstrate strong improvements for CCP compared to the baselines for six different LLMs and three languages. Human evaluation reveals that the fact-checking pipeline based on uncertainty quantification is competitive with a fact-checking tool that leverages external knowledge.

Understanding how overparameterized neural networks generalize despite perfect interpolation of noisy training data is a fundamental question. Mallinar et. al. 2022 noted that neural networks seem to often exhibit ``tempered overfitting'', wherein the population risk does not converge to the Bayes optimal error, but neither does it approach infinity, yielding non-trivial generalization. However, this has not been studied rigorously. We provide the first rigorous analysis of the overfitting behavior of regression with minimum norm (ell_2 of weights), focusing on univariate two-layer ReLU networks. We show overfitting is tempered (with high probability) when measured with respect to the L_1 loss, but also show that the situation is more complex than suggested by Mallinar et. al., and overfitting is catastrophic with respect to the L_2 loss, or when taking an expectation over the training set.

Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the so-called 'decision-theoretic approach' (Deutsch, 1999; Wallace, 2003, 2007, 2012), I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information - where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which I give an exact meaning via constructor theory), necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch-Wallace-type argument - thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles.

Shadow tomography for quantum states provides a sample efficient approach for predicting the properties of quantum systems when the properties are restricted to expectation values of 2-outcome POVMs. However, these shadow tomography procedures yield poor bounds if there are more than 2 outcomes per measurement. In this paper, we consider a general problem of learning properties from unknown quantum states: given an unknown d-dimensional quantum state rho and M unknown quantum measurements M_1,...,M_M with Kgeq 2 outcomes, estimating the probability distribution for applying M_i on rho to within total variation distance epsilon. Compared to the special case when K=2, we need to learn unknown distributions instead of values. We develop an online shadow tomography procedure that solves this problem with high success probability requiring O(Klog^2Mlog d/epsilon^4) copies of rho. We further prove an information-theoretic lower bound that at least Omega(min{d^2,K+log M}/epsilon^2) copies of rho are required to solve this problem with high success probability. Our shadow tomography procedure requires sample complexity with only logarithmic dependence on M and d and is sample-optimal for the dependence on K.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great capabilities in solving a wide range of tasks in a resource-efficient manner through prompting, which does not require task-specific training, but suffers from performance fluctuation when there are multiple prompt candidates. Previous works have introduced gradient-free probability-based prompt selection methods that aim to choose the optimal prompt among the candidates for a given task but fail to provide a comprehensive and fair comparison between each other. In this paper, we propose a unified framework to interpret and evaluate the existing probability-based prompt selection methods by performing extensive experiments on 13 common NLP tasks. We find that all existing methods can be unified into some variant of the method that maximizes the mutual information between the input and the corresponding model output (denoted as MI). Using the finding, we develop several variants of MI and increases the effectiveness of the best prompt selection method from 87.79% to 94.98%, measured as the ratio of the performance of the selected prompt to that of the optimal oracle prompt. Furthermore, we propose a novel calibration method called Calibration by Marginalization (CBM) that is orthogonal to existing methods and helps increase the prompt selection effectiveness of the best method by 99.44%. The code and datasets used in our work will be released at https://github.com/soheeyang/unified-prompt-selection.

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

Active matter systems, from self-propelled colloids to motile bacteria, are characterized by the conversion of free energy into useful work at the microscopic scale. These systems generically involve physics beyond the reach of equilibrium statistical mechanics, and a persistent challenge has been to understand the nature of their nonequilibrium states. The entropy production rate and the magnitude of the steady-state probability current provide quantitative ways to do so by measuring the breakdown of time-reversal symmetry and the strength of nonequilibrium transport of measure. Yet, their efficient computation has remained elusive, as they depend on the system's unknown and high-dimensional probability density. Here, building upon recent advances in generative modeling, we develop a deep learning framework that estimates the score of this density. We show that the score, together with the microscopic equations of motion, gives direct access to the entropy production rate, the probability current, and their decomposition into local contributions from individual particles, spatial regions, and degrees of freedom. To represent the score, we introduce a novel, spatially-local transformer-based network architecture that learns high-order interactions between particles while respecting their underlying permutation symmetry. We demonstrate the broad utility and scalability of the method by applying it to several high-dimensional systems of interacting active particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). We show that a single instance of our network trained on a system of 4096 particles at one packing fraction can generalize to other regions of the phase diagram, including systems with as many as 32768 particles. We use this observation to quantify the spatial structure of the departure from equilibrium in MIPS as a function of the number of particles and the packing fraction.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) harbor inherent social biases that can result in harmful real-world implications. Such social biases are measured through the probability values that PLMs output for different social groups and attributes appearing in a set of test sentences. However, bias testing is currently cumbersome since the test sentences are generated either from a limited set of manual templates or need expensive crowd-sourcing. We instead propose using ChatGPT for the controllable generation of test sentences, given any arbitrary user-specified combination of social groups and attributes appearing in the test sentences. When compared to template-based methods, our approach using ChatGPT for test sentence generation is superior in detecting social bias, especially in challenging settings such as intersectional biases. We present an open-source comprehensive bias testing framework (BiasTestGPT), hosted on HuggingFace, that can be plugged into any open-source PLM for bias testing. User testing with domain experts from various fields has shown their interest in being able to test modern AI for social biases. Our tool has significantly improved their awareness of such biases in PLMs, proving to be learnable and user-friendly. We thus enable seamless open-ended social bias testing of PLMs by domain experts through an automatic large-scale generation of diverse test sentences for any combination of social categories and attributes.

This paper presents a case study on the design, administration, post-processing, and evaluation of surveys on large language models (LLMs). It comprises two components: (1) A statistical method for eliciting beliefs encoded in LLMs. We introduce statistical measures and evaluation metrics that quantify the probability of an LLM "making a choice", the associated uncertainty, and the consistency of that choice. (2) We apply this method to study what moral beliefs are encoded in different LLMs, especially in ambiguous cases where the right choice is not obvious. We design a large-scale survey comprising 680 high-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I tell a white lie?") and 687 low-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I stop for a pedestrian on the road?"). Each scenario includes a description, two possible actions, and auxiliary labels indicating violated rules (e.g., "do not kill"). We administer the survey to 28 open- and closed-source LLMs. We find that (a) in unambiguous scenarios, most models "choose" actions that align with commonsense. In ambiguous cases, most models express uncertainty. (b) Some models are uncertain about choosing the commonsense action because their responses are sensitive to the question-wording. (c) Some models reflect clear preferences in ambiguous scenarios. Specifically, closed-source models tend to agree with each other.

Generating diverse responses from large language models (LLMs) is crucial for applications such as planning/search and synthetic data generation, where diversity provides distinct answers across generations. Prior approaches rely on increasing temperature to increase diversity. However, contrary to popular belief, we show not only does this approach produce lower quality individual generations as temperature increases, but it depends on model's next-token probabilities being similar to the true distribution of answers. We propose , an alternative approach that uses the language model itself to partition the space into strata. At inference, a random stratum is selected and a sample drawn from within the strata. To measure diversity, we introduce CoverageQA, a dataset of underspecified questions with multiple equally plausible answers, and assess diversity by measuring KL Divergence between the output distribution and uniform distribution over valid ground truth answers. As computing probability per response/solution for proprietary models is infeasible, we measure recall on ground truth solutions. Our evaluation show using SimpleStrat achieves higher recall by 0.05 compared to GPT-4o and 0.36 average reduction in KL Divergence compared to Llama 3.

Understanding equilibration and thermalization in isolated many-body quantum systems is a central challenge in quantum physics. The traditional approach focuses on the study of the full state of the quantum system which, at equilibrium, is best described by the Diagonal Ensemble. Here, we present Observable Statistical Mechanics, a novel paradigm that shifts attention from the full quantum state to the statistics of measurement outcomes. This approach is grounded in the Maximum Observable Entropy Principle, positing that equilibrium measurement statistics tend to maximize observable entropy under conserved average energy. By focusing on accessible measurements, the theory accurately predicts equilibrium probability distributions without needing detailed microscopic information like the energy eigenstates. Extensive numerical experiments on 7 spin-1/2 Hamiltonians demonstrate the broad applicability and robustness of this framework.

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

In this work we examine the classification accuracy and robustness of a state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithm applied to the morphological classification of radio galaxies. We test if SSL with fewer labels can achieve test accuracies comparable to the supervised state-of-the-art and whether this holds when incorporating previously unseen data. We find that for the radio galaxy classification problem considered, SSL provides additional regularisation and outperforms the baseline test accuracy. However, in contrast to model performance metrics reported on computer science benchmarking data-sets, we find that improvement is limited to a narrow range of label volumes, with performance falling off rapidly at low label volumes. Additionally, we show that SSL does not improve model calibration, regardless of whether classification is improved. Moreover, we find that when different underlying catalogues drawn from the same radio survey are used to provide the labelled and unlabelled data-sets required for SSL, a significant drop in classification performance is observered, highlighting the difficulty of applying SSL techniques under dataset shift. We show that a class-imbalanced unlabelled data pool negatively affects performance through prior probability shift, which we suggest may explain this performance drop, and that using the Frechet Distance between labelled and unlabelled data-sets as a measure of data-set shift can provide a prediction of model performance, but that for typical radio galaxy data-sets with labelled sample volumes of O(1000), the sample variance associated with this technique is high and the technique is in general not sufficiently robust to replace a train-test cycle.

The field of image generation has made significant progress thanks to the introduction of Diffusion Models, which learn to progressively reverse a given image corruption. Recently, a few studies introduced alternative ways of corrupting images in Diffusion Models, with an emphasis on blurring. However, these studies are purely empirical and it remains unclear what is the optimal procedure for corrupting an image. In this work, we hypothesize that the optimal procedure minimizes the length of the path taken when corrupting an image towards a given final state. We propose the Fisher metric for the path length, measured in the space of probability distributions. We compute the shortest path according to this metric, and we show that it corresponds to a combination of image sharpening, rather than blurring, and noise deblurring. While the corruption was chosen arbitrarily in previous work, our Shortest Path Diffusion (SPD) determines uniquely the entire spatiotemporal structure of the corruption. We show that SPD improves on strong baselines without any hyperparameter tuning, and outperforms all previous Diffusion Models based on image blurring. Furthermore, any small deviation from the shortest path leads to worse performance, suggesting that SPD provides the optimal procedure to corrupt images. Our work sheds new light on observations made in recent works and provides a new approach to improve diffusion models on images and other types of data.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

The problem of pre-training data detection for large language models (LLMs) has received growing attention due to its implications in critical issues like copyright violation and test data contamination. The current state-of-the-art approach, Min-K%, measures the raw token probability which we argue may not be the most informative signal. Instead, we propose Min-K%++ to normalize the token probability with statistics of the categorical distribution over the whole vocabulary, which accurately reflects the relative likelihood of the target token compared with other candidate tokens in the vocabulary. Theoretically, we back up our method by showing that the statistic it estimates is explicitly optimized during LLM training, thus serving as a reliable indicator for detecting training data. Empirically, on the WikiMIA benchmark, Min-K%++ outperforms the SOTA Min-K% by 6.2% to 10.5% in detection AUROC averaged over five models. On the more challenging MIMIR benchmark, Min-K%++ consistently improves upon Min-K% and performs on par with reference-based method, despite not requiring an extra reference model.

A common approach for aligning language models to human preferences is to first learn a reward model from preference data, and then use this reward model to update the language model. We study two closely related problems that arise in this approach. First, any monotone transformation of the reward model preserves preference ranking; is there a choice that is ``better'' than others? Second, we often wish to align language models to multiple properties: how should we combine multiple reward models? Using a probabilistic interpretation of the alignment procedure, we identify a natural choice for transformation for (the common case of) rewards learned from Bradley-Terry preference models. This derived transformation has two important properties. First, it emphasizes improving poorly-performing outputs, rather than outputs that already score well. This mitigates both underfitting (where some prompts are not improved) and reward hacking (where the model learns to exploit misspecification of the reward model). Second, it enables principled aggregation of rewards by linking summation to logical conjunction: the sum of transformed rewards corresponds to the probability that the output is ``good'' in all measured properties, in a sense we make precise. Experiments aligning language models to be both helpful and harmless using RLHF show substantial improvements over the baseline (non-transformed) approach.

This paper evaluates whether large language models (LLMs) exhibit cognitive fan effects, similar to those discovered by Anderson in humans, after being pre-trained on human textual data. We conduct two sets of in-context recall experiments designed to elicit fan effects. Consistent with human results, we find that LLM recall uncertainty, measured via token probability, is influenced by the fan effect. Our results show that removing uncertainty disrupts the observed effect. The experiments suggest the fan effect is consistent whether the fan value is induced in-context or in the pre-training data. Finally, these findings provide in-silico evidence that fan effects and typicality are expressions of the same phenomena.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Markov categories are a novel framework to describe and treat problems in probability and information theory. In this work we combine the categorical formalism with the traditional quantitative notions of entropy, mutual information, and data processing inequalities. We show that several quantitative aspects of information theory can be captured by an enriched version of Markov categories, where the spaces of morphisms are equipped with a divergence or even a metric. As it is customary in information theory, mutual information can be defined as a measure of how far a joint source is from displaying independence of its components. More strikingly, Markov categories give a notion of determinism for sources and channels, and we can define entropy exactly by measuring how far a source or channel is from being deterministic. This recovers Shannon and R\'enyi entropies, as well as the Gini-Simpson index used in ecology to quantify diversity, and it can be used to give a conceptual definition of generalized entropy.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

The measure of a machine learning algorithm is the difficulty of the tasks it can perform, and sufficiently difficult tasks are critical drivers of strong machine learning models. However, quantifying the generalization difficulty of machine learning benchmarks has remained challenging. We propose what is to our knowledge the first model-agnostic measure of the inherent generalization difficulty of tasks. Our inductive bias complexity measure quantifies the total information required to generalize well on a task minus the information provided by the data. It does so by measuring the fractional volume occupied by hypotheses that generalize on a task given that they fit the training data. It scales exponentially with the intrinsic dimensionality of the space over which the model must generalize but only polynomially in resolution per dimension, showing that tasks which require generalizing over many dimensions are drastically more difficult than tasks involving more detail in fewer dimensions. Our measure can be applied to compute and compare supervised learning, reinforcement learning and meta-learning generalization difficulties against each other. We show that applied empirically, it formally quantifies intuitively expected trends, e.g. that in terms of required inductive bias, MNIST < CIFAR10 < Imagenet and fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs) < partially observable MDPs. Further, we show that classification of complex images < few-shot meta-learning with simple images. Our measure provides a quantitative metric to guide the construction of more complex tasks requiring greater inductive bias, and thereby encourages the development of more sophisticated architectures and learning algorithms with more powerful generalization capabilities.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

It is typically understood that the training of modern neural networks is a process of fitting the probability distribution of desired output. However, recent paradoxical observations in a number of language generation tasks let one wonder if this canonical probability-based explanation can really account for the empirical success of deep learning. To resolve this issue, we propose an alternative utility-based explanation to the standard supervised learning procedure in deep learning. The basic idea is to interpret the learned neural network not as a probability model but as an ordinal utility function that encodes the preference revealed in training data. In this perspective, training of the neural network corresponds to a utility learning process. Specifically, we show that for all neural networks with softmax outputs, the SGD learning dynamic of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can be seen as an iteration process that optimizes the neural network toward an optimal utility function. This utility-based interpretation can explain several otherwise-paradoxical observations about the neural networks thus trained. Moreover, our utility-based theory also entails an equation that can transform the learned utility values back to a new kind of probability estimation with which probability-compatible decision rules enjoy dramatic (double-digits) performance improvements. These evidences collectively reveal a phenomenon of utility-probability duality in terms of what modern neural networks are (truly) modeling: We thought they are one thing (probabilities), until the unexplainable showed up; changing mindset and treating them as another thing (utility values) largely reconcile the theory, despite remaining subtleties regarding its original (probabilistic) identity.

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity bounds are more accurate and less studied than in-expectation ones. However, SOTA high-probability non-asymptotic convergence results are derived under strong assumptions such as the boundedness of the gradient noise variance or of the objective's gradient itself. In this paper, we propose several algorithms with high-probability convergence results under less restrictive assumptions. In particular, we derive new high-probability convergence results under the assumption that the gradient/operator noise has bounded central alpha-th moment for alpha in (1,2] in the following setups: (i) smooth non-convex / Polyak-Lojasiewicz / convex / strongly convex / quasi-strongly convex minimization problems, (ii) Lipschitz / star-cocoercive and monotone / quasi-strongly monotone variational inequalities. These results justify the usage of the considered methods for solving problems that do not fit standard functional classes studied in stochastic optimization.

The development of deep learning software libraries enabled significant progress in the field by allowing users to focus on modeling, while letting the library to take care of the tedious and time-consuming task of optimizing execution for modern hardware accelerators. However, this has benefited only particular types of deep learning models, such as Transformers, whose primitives map easily to the vectorized computation. The models that explicitly account for structured objects, such as trees and segmentations, did not benefit equally because they require custom algorithms that are difficult to implement in a vectorized form. SynJax directly addresses this problem by providing an efficient vectorized implementation of inference algorithms for structured distributions covering alignment, tagging, segmentation, constituency trees and spanning trees. With SynJax we can build large-scale differentiable models that explicitly model structure in the data. The code is available at https://github.com/deepmind/synjax.

One-shot Neural architecture search (One-shot NAS) has been proposed as a time-efficient approach to obtain optimal subnet architectures and weights under different complexity cases by training only once. However, the subnet performance obtained by weight sharing is often inferior to the performance achieved by retraining. In this paper, we investigate the performance gap and attribute it to the use of uniform sampling, which is a common approach in supernet training. Uniform sampling concentrates training resources on subnets with intermediate computational resources, which are sampled with high probability. However, subnets with different complexity regions require different optimal training strategies for optimal performance. To address the problem of uniform sampling, we propose ShiftNAS, a method that can adjust the sampling probability based on the complexity of subnets. We achieve this by evaluating the performance variation of subnets with different complexity and designing an architecture generator that can accurately and efficiently provide subnets with the desired complexity. Both the sampling probability and the architecture generator can be trained end-to-end in a gradient-based manner. With ShiftNAS, we can directly obtain the optimal model architecture and parameters for a given computational complexity. We evaluate our approach on multiple visual network models, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and vision transformers (ViTs), and demonstrate that ShiftNAS is model-agnostic. Experimental results on ImageNet show that ShiftNAS can improve the performance of one-shot NAS without additional consumption. Source codes are available at https://github.com/bestfleer/ShiftNAS.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. However, single-shot inference often yields unreliable results for complex reasoning tasks, leading researchers to explore multiple reasoning paths through methods such as perplexity and self-consistency. In this paper, we present the first theoretical error decomposition analysis of these techniques, breaking down their error into estimation error and model error. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off: perplexity methods suffer from substantial model error due to the absence of a proper consistency function, while self-consistency exhibits high estimation error due to a slow error convergence rate. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reasoning-Pruning Perplexity Consistency (RPC). This approach combines Perplexity Consistency, which seamlessly integrates LLM perplexity with self-consistency, and Reasoning Pruning, which eliminates low-probability reasoning paths to effectively prevent the degeneration of estimation error reduction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RPC not only accelerates the convergence rate of estimation error to an exponential level but also holds strong potential for further reducing model error. Extensive empirical evaluations on seven benchmark datasets confirm that RPC can significantly improve reasoning performance, sample efficiency, and confidence reliability.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Score-based generative modeling with probability flow ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has achieved remarkable success in a variety of applications. While various fast ODE-based samplers have been proposed in the literature and employed in practice, the theoretical understandings about convergence properties of the probability flow ODE are still quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first non-asymptotic convergence analysis for a general class of probability flow ODE samplers in 2-Wasserstein distance, assuming accurate score estimates. We then consider various examples and establish results on the iteration complexity of the corresponding ODE-based samplers.

Consistency Models (CM) (Song et al., 2023) accelerate score-based diffusion model sampling at the cost of sample quality but lack a natural way to trade-off quality for speed. To address this limitation, we propose Consistency Trajectory Model (CTM), a generalization encompassing CM and score-based models as special cases. CTM trains a single neural network that can -- in a single forward pass -- output scores (i.e., gradients of log-density) and enables unrestricted traversal between any initial and final time along the Probability Flow Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) in a diffusion process. CTM enables the efficient combination of adversarial training and denoising score matching loss to enhance performance and achieves new state-of-the-art FIDs for single-step diffusion model sampling on CIFAR-10 (FID 1.73) and ImageNet at 64x64 resolution (FID 1.92). CTM also enables a new family of sampling schemes, both deterministic and stochastic, involving long jumps along the ODE solution trajectories. It consistently improves sample quality as computational budgets increase, avoiding the degradation seen in CM. Furthermore, unlike CM, CTM's access to the score function can streamline the adoption of established controllable/conditional generation methods from the diffusion community. This access also enables the computation of likelihood. The code is available at https://github.com/sony/ctm.

In this paper, the problem of semantic information extraction for resource constrained text data transmission is studied. In the considered model, a sequence of text data need to be transmitted within a communication resource-constrained network, which only allows limited data transmission. Thus, at the transmitter, the original text data is extracted with natural language processing techniques. Then, the extracted semantic information is captured in a knowledge graph. An additional probability dimension is introduced in this graph to capture the importance of each information. This semantic information extraction problem is posed as an optimization framework whose goal is to extract most important semantic information for transmission. To find an optimal solution for this problem, a Floyd's algorithm based solution coupled with an efficient sorting mechanism is proposed. Numerical results testify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm with regards to two novel performance metrics including semantic uncertainty and semantic similarity.

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the data separation function. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to 1 in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of n samples in d dimension as n/drightarrow 0. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes kinetic optimal as n/drightarrow 0. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.

Attention mechanisms are a central property of cognitive systems allowing them to selectively deploy cognitive resources in a flexible manner. Attention has been long studied in the neurosciences and there are numerous phenomenological models that try to capture its core properties. Recently attentional mechanisms have become a dominating architectural choice of machine learning and are the central innovation of Transformers. The dominant intuition and formalism underlying their development has drawn on ideas of keys and queries in database management systems. In this work, we propose an alternative Bayesian foundation for attentional mechanisms and show how this unifies different attentional architectures in machine learning. This formulation allows to to identify commonality across different attention ML architectures as well as suggest a bridge to those developed in neuroscience. We hope this work will guide more sophisticated intuitions into the key properties of attention architectures and suggest new ones.

We rigorously quantify the improvement in the sample complexity of variational divergence estimations for group-invariant distributions. In the cases of the Wasserstein-1 metric and the Lipschitz-regularized alpha-divergences, the reduction of sample complexity is proportional to an ambient-dimension-dependent power of the group size. For the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), the improvement of sample complexity is more nuanced, as it depends on not only the group size but also the choice of kernel. Numerical simulations verify our theories.

Generative models have recently started to outperform extractive models in Open Domain Question Answering, largely by leveraging their decoder to attend over multiple encoded passages and combining their information. However, generative models tend to be larger than extractive models due to the need for a decoder, run slower during inference due to auto-regressive decoder beam search, and their generated output often suffers from hallucinations. We propose to extend transformer encoders with the ability to fuse information from multiple passages, using global representation to provide cross-sample attention over all tokens across samples. Furthermore, we propose an alternative answer span probability calculation to better aggregate answer scores in the global space of all samples. Using our proposed method, we outperform the current state-of-the-art method by 2.5 Exact Match score on the Natural Question dataset while using only 25% of parameters and 35% of the latency during inference, and 4.4 Exact Match on WebQuestions dataset. When coupled with synthetic data augmentation, we outperform larger models on the TriviaQA dataset as well. The latency and parameter savings of our method make it particularly attractive for open-domain question answering, as these models are often compute-intensive.

The algorithm of Shor for prime factorization is a hybrid algorithm consisting of a quantum part and a classical part. The main focus of the classical part is a continued fraction analysis. The presentation of this is often short, pointing to text books on number theory. In this contribution, we present the relevant results and proofs from the theory of continued fractions in detail (even in more detail than in text books) filling the gap to allow a complete comprehension of the algorithm of Shor. Similarly, we provide a detailed computation of the estimation of the probability that convergents will provide the period required for determining a prime factor.

We present IterMVS, a new data-driven method for high-resolution multi-view stereo. We propose a novel GRU-based estimator that encodes pixel-wise probability distributions of depth in its hidden state. Ingesting multi-scale matching information, our model refines these distributions over multiple iterations and infers depth and confidence. To extract the depth maps, we combine traditional classification and regression in a novel manner. We verify the efficiency and effectiveness of our method on DTU, Tanks&Temples and ETH3D. While being the most efficient method in both memory and run-time, our model achieves competitive performance on DTU and better generalization ability on Tanks&Temples as well as ETH3D than most state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/FangjinhuaWang/IterMVS.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Attention architectures are widely used; they recently gained renewed popularity with Transformers yielding a streak of state of the art results. Yet, the geometrical implications of softmax-attention remain largely unexplored. In this work we highlight the limitations of constraining attention weights to the probability simplex and the resulting convex hull of value vectors. We show that Transformers are sequence length dependent biased towards token isolation at initialization and contrast Transformers to simple max- and sum-pooling - two strong baselines rarely reported. We propose to replace the softmax in self-attention with normalization, yielding a hyperparameter and data-bias robust, generally applicable architecture. We support our insights with empirical results from more than 25,000 trained models. All results and implementations are made available.

We give a conceptual treatment of the notion of joints, marginals, and independence in the setting of categorical probability. This is achieved by endowing the usual probability monads (like the Giry monad) with a monoidal and an opmonoidal structure, mutually compatible (i.e. a bimonoidal structure). If the underlying monoidal category is cartesian monoidal, a bimonoidal structure is given uniquely by a commutative strength. However, if the underlying monoidal category is not cartesian monoidal, a strength is not enough to guarantee all the desired properties of joints and marginals. A bimonoidal structure is then the correct requirement for the more general case. We explain the theory and the operational interpretation, with the help of the graphical calculus for monoidal categories. We give a definition of stochastic independence based on the bimonoidal structure, compatible with the intuition and with other approaches in the literature for cartesian monoidal categories. We then show as an example that the Kantorovich monad on the category of complete metric spaces is a bimonoidal monad for a non-cartesian monoidal structure.

Query rewriting is a crucial technique for passage retrieval in open-domain conversational question answering (CQA). It decontexualizes conversational queries into self-contained questions suitable for off-the-shelf retrievers. Existing methods attempt to incorporate retriever's preference during the training of rewriting models. However, these approaches typically rely on extensive annotations such as in-domain rewrites and/or relevant passage labels, limiting the models' generalization and adaptation capabilities. In this paper, we introduce AdaQR (Adaptive Query Rewriting), a framework for training query rewriting models with limited rewrite annotations from seed datasets and completely no passage label. Our approach begins by fine-tuning compact large language models using only ~10% of rewrite annotations from the seed dataset training split. The models are then utilized to generate rewrite candidates for each query instance. A novel approach is then proposed to assess retriever's preference for these candidates by the probability of answers conditioned on the conversational query by marginalizing the Top-K passages. This serves as the reward for optimizing the rewriter further using Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), a process free of rewrite and retrieval annotations. Experimental results on four open-domain CQA datasets demonstrate that AdaQR not only enhances the in-domain capabilities of the rewriter with limited annotation requirement, but also adapts effectively to out-of-domain datasets.

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective platform for labeling large amounts of data in a cost- and time-efficient manner. Most previous work has focused on designing an efficient algorithm to recover only the ground-truth labels of the data. In this paper, we consider multi-choice crowdsourcing tasks with the goal of recovering not only the ground truth, but also the most confusing answer and the confusion probability. The most confusing answer provides useful information about the task by revealing the most plausible answer other than the ground truth and how plausible it is. To theoretically analyze such scenarios, we propose a model in which there are the top two plausible answers for each task, distinguished from the rest of the choices. Task difficulty is quantified by the probability of confusion between the top two, and worker reliability is quantified by the probability of giving an answer among the top two. Under this model, we propose a two-stage inference algorithm to infer both the top two answers and the confusion probability. We show that our algorithm achieves the minimax optimal convergence rate. We conduct both synthetic and real data experiments and demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms other recent algorithms. We also show the applicability of our algorithms in inferring the difficulty of tasks and in training neural networks with top-two soft labels.

The fluency and factual knowledge of large language models (LLMs) heightens the need for corresponding systems to detect whether a piece of text is machine-written. For example, students may use LLMs to complete written assignments, leaving instructors unable to accurately assess student learning. In this paper, we first demonstrate that text sampled from an LLM tends to occupy negative curvature regions of the model's log probability function. Leveraging this observation, we then define a new curvature-based criterion for judging if a passage is generated from a given LLM. This approach, which we call DetectGPT, does not require training a separate classifier, collecting a dataset of real or generated passages, or explicitly watermarking generated text. It uses only log probabilities computed by the model of interest and random perturbations of the passage from another generic pre-trained language model (e.g, T5). We find DetectGPT is more discriminative than existing zero-shot methods for model sample detection, notably improving detection of fake news articles generated by 20B parameter GPT-NeoX from 0.81 AUROC for the strongest zero-shot baseline to 0.95 AUROC for DetectGPT. See https://ericmitchell.ai/detectgpt for code, data, and other project information.

We present a novel family of language model (LM) estimation techniques named Sparse Non-negative Matrix (SNM) estimation. A first set of experiments empirically evaluating it on the One Billion Word Benchmark shows that SNM n-gram LMs perform almost as well as the well-established Kneser-Ney (KN) models. When using skip-gram features the models are able to match the state-of-the-art recurrent neural network (RNN) LMs; combining the two modeling techniques yields the best known result on the benchmark. The computational advantages of SNM over both maximum entropy and RNN LM estimation are probably its main strength, promising an approach that has the same flexibility in combining arbitrary features effectively and yet should scale to very large amounts of data as gracefully as n-gram LMs do.

As the quality of large language models has improved, there has been increased interest in using them to model non-linguistic tokens. For example, the Decision Transformer recasts agentic decision making as a sequence modeling problem, using a decoder-only LLM to model the distribution over the discrete action space for an Atari agent. However, when adapting LLMs to non-linguistic domains, it remains unclear if softmax over discrete bins captures the continuous structure of the tokens and the potentially complex distributions needed for high quality token generation. We introduce a neural network layer, constructed using Fourier series, which we can easily substitute for any linear layer if we want the outputs to have a more continuous structure. We perform extensive analysis on synthetic datasets, as well as on large-scale decision making and time series forecasting tasks. We also provide theoretical evidence that this layer can better learn signal from data while ignoring high-frequency noise. All of our results support the effectiveness of our proposed Fourier head in scenarios where the underlying data distribution has a natural continuous structure. For example, the Fourier head improves a Decision Transformer agent's returns by 46% on the Atari Seaquest game, and increases a state-of-the-art times series foundation model's forecasting performance by 3.5% across 20 benchmarks unseen during training.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating high-quality texts across diverse domains. However, the potential misuse of LLMs has raised significant concerns, underscoring the urgent need for reliable detection of LLM-generated texts. Conventional training-based detectors often struggle with generalization, particularly in cross-domain and cross-model scenarios. In contrast, training-free methods, which focus on inherent discrepancies through carefully designed statistical features, offer improved generalization and interpretability. Despite this, existing training-free detection methods typically rely on global text sequence statistics, neglecting the modeling of local discriminative features, thereby limiting their detection efficacy. In this work, we introduce a novel training-free detector, termed Lastde that synergizes local and global statistics for enhanced detection. For the first time, we introduce time series analysis to LLM-generated text detection, capturing the temporal dynamics of token probability sequences. By integrating these local statistics with global ones, our detector reveals significant disparities between human and LLM-generated texts. We also propose an efficient alternative, Lastde++ to enable real-time detection. Extensive experiments on six datasets involving cross-domain, cross-model, and cross-lingual detection scenarios, under both white-box and black-box settings, demonstrated that our method consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, our approach exhibits greater robustness against paraphrasing attacks compared to existing baseline methods.

Large language models are susceptible to jailbreak attacks, which can result in the generation of harmful content. While prior defenses mitigate these risks by perturbing or inspecting inputs, they ignore competing objectives, the underlying cause of alignment failures. In this paper, we propose Alignment-Enhanced Decoding (AED), a novel defense that employs adaptive decoding to address the root causes of jailbreak issues. We first define the Competitive Index to quantify alignment failures and utilize feedback from self-evaluation to compute post-alignment logits. Then, AED adaptively combines AED and post-alignment logits with the original logits to obtain harmless and helpful distributions. Consequently, our method enhances safety alignment while maintaining helpfulness. We conduct experiments across five models and four common jailbreaks, with the results validating the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/GIGABaozi/AED.git.

Multi-modal Emotion Recognition in Conversation (MERC) has received considerable attention in various fields, e.g., human-computer interaction and recommendation systems. Most existing works perform feature disentanglement and fusion to extract emotional contextual information from multi-modal features and emotion classification. After revisiting the characteristic of MERC, we argue that long-range contextual semantic information should be extracted in the feature disentanglement stage and the inter-modal semantic information consistency should be maximized in the feature fusion stage. Inspired by recent State Space Models (SSMs), Mamba can efficiently model long-distance dependencies. Therefore, in this work, we fully consider the above insights to further improve the performance of MERC. Specifically, on the one hand, in the feature disentanglement stage, we propose a Broad Mamba, which does not rely on a self-attention mechanism for sequence modeling, but uses state space models to compress emotional representation, and utilizes broad learning systems to explore the potential data distribution in broad space. Different from previous SSMs, we design a bidirectional SSM convolution to extract global context information. On the other hand, we design a multi-modal fusion strategy based on probability guidance to maximize the consistency of information between modalities. Experimental results show that the proposed method can overcome the computational and memory limitations of Transformer when modeling long-distance contexts, and has great potential to become a next-generation general architecture in MERC.

Recent progress in text-to-3D generation has been achieved through the utilization of score distillation methods: they make use of the pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models by distilling via the diffusion model training objective. However, such an approach inevitably results in the use of random timesteps at each update, which increases the variance of the gradient and ultimately prolongs the optimization process. In this paper, we propose to enhance the text-to-3D optimization by leveraging the T2I diffusion prior in the generative sampling process with a predetermined timestep schedule. To this end, we interpret text-to3D optimization as a multi-view image-to-image translation problem, and propose a solution by approximating the probability flow. By leveraging the proposed novel optimization algorithm, we design DreamFlow, a practical three-stage coarseto-fine text-to-3D optimization framework that enables fast generation of highquality and high-resolution (i.e., 1024x1024) 3D contents. For example, we demonstrate that DreamFlow is 5 times faster than the existing state-of-the-art text-to-3D method, while producing more photorealistic 3D contents. Visit our project page (https://kyungmnlee.github.io/dreamflow.github.io/) for visualizations.

This paper shows how LLMs (Large Language Models) may be used to estimate a summary of the emotional state associated with piece of text. The summary of emotional state is a dictionary of words used to describe emotion together with the probability of the word appearing after a prompt comprising the original text and an emotion eliciting tail. Through emotion analysis of Amazon product reviews we demonstrate emotion descriptors can be mapped into a PCA type space. It was hoped that text descriptions of actions to improve a current text described state could also be elicited through a tail prompt. Experiment seemed to indicate that this is not straightforward to make work. This failure put our hoped for selection of action via choosing the best predict ed outcome via comparing emotional responses out of reach for the moment.

We study Stochastic Gradient Descent with AdaGrad stepsizes: a popular adaptive (self-tuning) method for first-order stochastic optimization. Despite being well studied, existing analyses of this method suffer from various shortcomings: they either assume some knowledge of the problem parameters, impose strong global Lipschitz conditions, or fail to give bounds that hold with high probability. We provide a comprehensive analysis of this basic method without any of these limitations, in both the convex and non-convex (smooth) cases, that additionally supports a general ``affine variance'' noise model and provides sharp rates of convergence in both the low-noise and high-noise~regimes.

Chinese Spell Checking (CSC) aims to detect and correct Chinese spelling errors, which are mainly caused by the phonological or visual similarity. Recently, pre-trained language models (PLMs) promote the progress of CSC task. However, there exists a gap between the learned knowledge of PLMs and the goal of CSC task. PLMs focus on the semantics in text and tend to correct the erroneous characters to semantically proper or commonly used ones, but these aren't the ground-truth corrections. To address this issue, we propose an Error-driven COntrastive Probability Optimization (ECOPO) framework for CSC task. ECOPO refines the knowledge representations of PLMs, and guides the model to avoid predicting these common characters through an error-driven way. Particularly, ECOPO is model-agnostic and it can be combined with existing CSC methods to achieve better performance. Extensive experiments and detailed analyses on SIGHAN datasets demonstrate that ECOPO is simple yet effective.

Probing the memorization of large language models holds significant importance. Previous works have established metrics for quantifying memorization, explored various influencing factors, such as data duplication, model size, and prompt length, and evaluated memorization by comparing model outputs with training corpora. However, the training corpora are of enormous scale and its pre-processing is time-consuming. To explore memorization without accessing training data, we propose a novel approach, named ROME, wherein memorization is explored by comparing disparities across memorized and non-memorized. Specifically, models firstly categorize the selected samples into memorized and non-memorized groups, and then comparing the demonstrations in the two groups from the insights of text, probability, and hidden state. Experimental findings show the disparities in factors including word length, part-of-speech, word frequency, mean and variance, just to name a few.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown the ability to produce fluent and cogent content, presenting both productivity opportunities and societal risks. To build trustworthy AI systems, it is imperative to distinguish between machine-generated and human-authored content. The leading zero-shot detector, DetectGPT, showcases commendable performance but is marred by its intensive computational costs. In this paper, we introduce the concept of conditional probability curvature to elucidate discrepancies in word choices between LLMs and humans within a given context. Utilizing this curvature as a foundational metric, we present **Fast-DetectGPT**, an optimized zero-shot detector, which substitutes DetectGPT's perturbation step with a more efficient sampling step. Our evaluations on various datasets, source models, and test conditions indicate that Fast-DetectGPT not only surpasses DetectGPT by a relative around 75% in both the white-box and black-box settings but also accelerates the detection process by a factor of 340, as detailed in Table 1. See https://github.com/baoguangsheng/fast-detect-gpt for code, data, and results.

We present an end-to-end and practical randomness amplification and privatisation protocol based on Bell tests. This allows the building of device-independent random number generators which output (near-)perfectly unbiased and private numbers, even if using an uncharacterised quantum device potentially built by an adversary. Our generation rates are linear in the repetition rate of the quantum device and the classical randomness post-processing has quasi-linear complexity - making it efficient on a standard personal laptop. The statistical analysis is also tailored for real-world quantum devices. Our protocol is then showcased on several different quantum computers. Although not purposely built for the task, we show that quantum computers can run faithful Bell tests by adding minimal assumptions. In this semi-device-independent manner, our protocol generates (near-)perfectly unbiased and private random numbers on today's quantum computers.

The human intrinsic desire to pursue knowledge, also known as curiosity, is considered essential in the process of skill acquisition. With the aid of artificial curiosity, we could equip current techniques for control, such as Reinforcement Learning, with more natural exploration capabilities. A promising approach in this respect has consisted of using Bayesian surprise on model parameters, i.e. a metric for the difference between prior and posterior beliefs, to favour exploration. In this contribution, we propose to apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space representing the agent's current understanding of the dynamics of the system, drastically reducing the computational costs. We extensively evaluate our method by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and compares positively with current state-of-the-art methods on several problems. We also investigate the effects caused by stochasticity in the environment, which is often a failure case for curiosity-driven agents. In this regime, the results suggest that our approach is resilient to stochastic transitions.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

As the probability (and thus perplexity) of a text is calculated based on the product of the probabilities of individual tokens, it may happen that one unlikely token significantly reduces the probability (i.e., increase the perplexity) of some otherwise highly probable input, while potentially representing a simple typographical error. Also, given that perplexity is a scalar value that refers to the entire input, information about the probability distribution within it is lost in the calculation (a relatively good text that has one unlikely token and another text in which each token is equally likely they can have the same perplexity value), especially for longer texts. As an alternative to scalar perplexity this research proposes a simple algorithm used to calculate vector values based on n-gram perplexities within the input. Such representations consider the previously mentioned aspects, and instead of a unique value, the relative perplexity of each text token is calculated, and these values are combined into a single vector representing the input.

Graph measures that express closeness or distance between nodes can be employed for graph nodes clustering using metric clustering algorithms. There are numerous measures applicable to this task, and which one performs better is an open question. We study the performance of 25 graph measures on generated graphs with different parameters. While usually measure comparisons are limited to general measure ranking on a particular dataset, we aim to explore the performance of various measures depending on graph features. Using an LFR graph generator, we create a dataset of 11780 graphs covering the whole LFR parameter space. For each graph, we assess the quality of clustering with k-means algorithm for each considered measure. Based on this, we determine the best measure for each area of the parameter space. We find that the parameter space consists of distinct zones where one particular measure is the best. We analyze the geometry of the resulting zones and describe it with simple criteria. Given particular graph parameters, this allows us to recommend a particular measure to use for clustering.

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

The Leggett-Garg inequalities probe the classical-quantum boundary by putting limits on the sum of pairwise correlation functions between classical measurement devices that consecutively measured the same quantum system. The apparent violation of these inequalities by standard quantum measurements has cast doubt on quantum mechanics' ability to consistently describe classical objects. Recent work has concluded that these inequalities cannot be violated by either strong or weak projective measurements [1]. Here I consider an entropic version of the Leggett-Garg inequalities that are different from the standard inequalities yet similar in form, and can be defined without reference to any particular observable. I find that the entropic inequalities also cannot be be violated by strong quantum measurements. The entropic inequalities can be extended to describe weak quantum measurements, and I show that these weak entropic Leggett-Garg inequalities cannot be violated either even though the quantum system remains unprojected, because the inequalities describe the classical measurement devices, not the quantum system. I conclude that quantum mechanics adequately describes classical devices, and that we should be careful not to assume that the classical devices accurately describe the quantum system.

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the losses. In machine learning, such a risk measure is useful to train more robust models. Although the stochastic subgradient method (SGM) is a natural choice for minimizing the CVaR objective, we show that our stochastic prox-linear (SPL+) algorithm can better exploit the structure of the objective, while still providing a convenient closed form update. Our SPL+ method also adapts to the scaling of the loss function, which allows for easier tuning. We then specialize a general convergence theorem for SPL+ to our setting, and show that it allows for a wider selection of step sizes compared to SGM. We support this theoretical finding experimentally.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

The present work explores the theoretical limits of Machine Learning (ML) within the framework of Kolmogorov's theory of Algorithmic Probability, which clarifies the notion of entropy as Expected Kolmogorov Complexity and formalizes other fundamental concepts such as Occam's razor via Levin's Universal Distribution. As a fundamental application, we develop Maximum Entropy methods that allow us to derive the Erdos--Kac Law in Probabilistic Number Theory, and establish the impossibility of discovering a formula for primes using Machine Learning via the Prime Coding Theorem.

Diffusion models have exhibited excellent performance in various domains. The probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) of diffusion models (i.e., diffusion ODEs) is a particular case of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which enables deterministic inference and exact likelihood evaluation. However, the likelihood estimation results by diffusion ODEs are still far from those of the state-of-the-art likelihood-based generative models. In this work, we propose several improved techniques for maximum likelihood estimation for diffusion ODEs, including both training and evaluation perspectives. For training, we propose velocity parameterization and explore variance reduction techniques for faster convergence. We also derive an error-bounded high-order flow matching objective for finetuning, which improves the ODE likelihood and smooths its trajectory. For evaluation, we propose a novel training-free truncated-normal dequantization to fill the training-evaluation gap commonly existing in diffusion ODEs. Building upon these techniques, we achieve state-of-the-art likelihood estimation results on image datasets (2.56 on CIFAR-10, 3.43/3.69 on ImageNet-32) without variational dequantization or data augmentation.

This paper proposes a pre-trained neural network for handling event camera data. Our model is a self-supervised learning framework, and uses paired event camera data and natural RGB images for training. Our method contains three modules connected in a sequence: i) a family of event data augmentations, generating meaningful event images for self-supervised training; ii) a conditional masking strategy to sample informative event patches from event images, encouraging our model to capture the spatial layout of a scene and accelerating training; iii) a contrastive learning approach, enforcing the similarity of embeddings between matching event images, and between paired event and RGB images. An embedding projection loss is proposed to avoid the model collapse when enforcing the event image embedding similarities. A probability distribution alignment loss is proposed to encourage the event image to be consistent with its paired RGB image in the feature space. Transfer learning performance on downstream tasks shows the superiority of our method over state-of-the-art methods. For example, we achieve top-1 accuracy at 64.83% on the N-ImageNet dataset.

Most of the existing Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection algorithms depend on single input source: the feature, the logit, or the softmax probability. However, the immense diversity of the OOD examples makes such methods fragile. There are OOD samples that are easy to identify in the feature space while hard to distinguish in the logit space and vice versa. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel OOD scoring method named Virtual-logit Matching (ViM), which combines the class-agnostic score from feature space and the In-Distribution (ID) class-dependent logits. Specifically, an additional logit representing the virtual OOD class is generated from the residual of the feature against the principal space, and then matched with the original logits by a constant scaling. The probability of this virtual logit after softmax is the indicator of OOD-ness. To facilitate the evaluation of large-scale OOD detection in academia, we create a new OOD dataset for ImageNet-1K, which is human-annotated and is 8.8x the size of existing datasets. We conducted extensive experiments, including CNNs and vision transformers, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ViM score. In particular, using the BiT-S model, our method gets an average AUROC 90.91% on four difficult OOD benchmarks, which is 4% ahead of the best baseline. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/haoqiwang/vim.

Estimating probability distribution is one of the core issues in the NLP field. However, in both deep learning (DL) and pre-DL eras, unlike the vast applications of linear-chain CRF in sequence labeling tasks, very few works have applied tree-structure CRF to constituency parsing, mainly due to the complexity and inefficiency of the inside-outside algorithm. This work presents a fast and accurate neural CRF constituency parser. The key idea is to batchify the inside algorithm for loss computation by direct large tensor operations on GPU, and meanwhile avoid the outside algorithm for gradient computation via efficient back-propagation. We also propose a simple two-stage bracketing-then-labeling parsing approach to improve efficiency further. To improve the parsing performance, inspired by recent progress in dependency parsing, we introduce a new scoring architecture based on boundary representation and biaffine attention, and a beneficial dropout strategy. Experiments on PTB, CTB5.1, and CTB7 show that our two-stage CRF parser achieves new state-of-the-art performance on both settings of w/o and w/ BERT, and can parse over 1,000 sentences per second. We release our code at https://github.com/yzhangcs/crfpar.

Magnitude of a finite metric space and the related notion of magnitude functions on metric spaces is an active area of research in algebraic topology. Magnitude originally arose in the context of biology, where it represents the number of effective species in an environment; when applied to a one-parameter family of metric spaces tX with scale parameter t, the magnitude captures much of the underlying geometry of the space. Prior work has mostly focussed on properties of magnitude in a global sense; in this paper we restrict the sets to finite subsets of Euclidean space and investigate its individual components. We give an explicit formula for the corrected inclusion-exclusion principle, and define a quantity associated with each point, called the moment which gives an intrinsic ordering to the points. We exploit this in order to form an algorithm which approximates the convex hull.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become the predominant approach for language model (LM) alignment. At its core, RLHF uses a margin-based loss for preference optimization, specifying ideal LM behavior only by the difference between preferred and dispreferred responses. In this paper, we identify a common pitfall of margin-based methods -- the under-specification of ideal LM behavior on preferred and dispreferred responses individually, which leads to two unintended consequences as the margin increases: (1) The probability of dispreferred (e.g., unsafe) responses may increase, resulting in potential safety alignment failures. (2) The probability of preferred responses may decrease, even when those responses are ideal. We demystify the reasons behind these problematic behaviors: margin-based losses couple the change in the preferred probability to the gradient of the dispreferred one, and vice versa, often preventing the preferred probability from increasing while the dispreferred one decreases, and thus causing a synchronized increase or decrease in both probabilities. We term this effect, inherent in margin-based objectives, gradient entanglement. Formally, we derive conditions for general margin-based alignment objectives under which gradient entanglement becomes concerning: the inner product of the gradients of preferred and dispreferred log-probabilities is large relative to the individual gradient norms. We theoretically investigate why such inner products can be large when aligning language models and empirically validate our findings. Empirical implications of our framework extend to explaining important differences in the training dynamics of various preference optimization algorithms, and suggesting potential algorithm designs to mitigate the under-specification issue of margin-based methods and thereby improving language model alignment.

We show that feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation generalize on low complexity data, suitably defined. Given i.i.d. data generated from a simple programming language, the minimum description length (MDL) feedforward neural network which interpolates the data generalizes with high probability. We define this simple programming language, along with a notion of description length of such networks. We provide several examples on basic computational tasks, such as checking primality of a natural number, and more. For primality testing, our theorem shows the following. Suppose that we draw an i.i.d. sample of Theta(N^{delta}ln N) numbers uniformly at random from 1 to N, where deltain (0,1). For each number x_i, let y_i = 1 if x_i is a prime and 0 if it is not. Then with high probability, the MDL network fitted to this data accurately answers whether a newly drawn number between 1 and N is a prime or not, with test error leq O(N^{-delta}). Note that the network is not designed to detect primes; minimum description learning discovers a network which does so.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various applications, fundamentally reshaping the landscape of natural language processing (NLP) research. However, recent evaluation frameworks often rely on the output probabilities of LLMs for predictions, primarily due to computational constraints, diverging from real-world LLM usage scenarios. While widely employed, the efficacy of these probability-based evaluation strategies remains an open research question. This study aims to scrutinize the validity of such probability-based evaluation methods within the context of using LLMs for Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs), highlighting their inherent limitations. Our empirical investigation reveals that the prevalent probability-based evaluation method inadequately aligns with generation-based prediction. Furthermore, current evaluation frameworks typically assess LLMs through predictive tasks based on output probabilities rather than directly generating responses, owing to computational limitations. We illustrate that these probability-based approaches do not effectively correspond with generative predictions. The outcomes of our study can enhance the understanding of LLM evaluation methodologies and provide insights for future research in this domain.

Holographic Metasurface Transceivers (HMTs) are emerging as cost-effective substitutes to large antenna arrays for beamforming in Millimeter and TeraHertz wave communication. However, to achieve desired channel gains through beamforming in HMT, phase-shifts of a large number of elements need to be appropriately set, which is challenging. Also, these optimal phase-shifts depend on the location of the receivers, which could be unknown. In this work, we develop a learning algorithm using a {\it fixed-budget multi-armed bandit framework} to beamform and maximize received signal strength at the receiver for far-field regions. Our algorithm, named \Algo exploits the parametric form of channel gains of the beams, which can be expressed in terms of two {\it phase-shifting parameters}. Even after parameterization, the problem is still challenging as phase-shifting parameters take continuous values. To overcome this, {\it\HB} works with the discrete values of phase-shifting parameters and exploits their unimodal relations with channel gains to learn the optimal values faster. We upper bound the probability of {\it\HB} incorrectly identifying the (discrete) optimal phase-shift parameters in terms of the number of pilots used in learning. We show that this probability decays exponentially with the number of pilot signals. We demonstrate that {\it\HB} outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms through extensive simulations.

Recent language models have a mysterious tendency to generate false but plausible-sounding text. Such "hallucinations" are an obstacle to the usability of language-based AI systems and can harm people who rely upon their outputs. This work shows shows that there is an inherent statistical reason that pretrained language models hallucinate certain types of facts, having nothing to do with the transformer LM architecture or data quality. For "arbitrary" facts whose veracity cannot be determined from the training data, we show that hallucination is necessary for language models that satisfy a statistical calibration condition appropriate for generative language models. Specifically, if the maximum probability of any fact is bounded, we show that the probability of generating a hallucination is close to the fraction of facts that occur exactly once in the training data (a "Good-Turing" estimate), even assuming ideal training data without errors. One conclusion is that models pretrained to be sufficiently good predictors (i.e., calibrated) may require post-training to mitigate hallucinations on the type of arbitrary facts that tend to appear once in the training set. However, our analysis also suggests that there is no statistical reason that pretraining will lead to hallucination on facts that tend to appear more than once in the training data (like references to publications such as articles and books, whose hallucinations have been particularly notable and problematic) or on systematic facts (like arithmetic calculations). Therefore, different architectures and learning algorithms may mitigate these latter types of hallucinations.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Network pruning reduces the computation costs of an over-parameterized network without performance damage. Prevailing pruning algorithms pre-define the width and depth of the pruned networks, and then transfer parameters from the unpruned network to pruned networks. To break the structure limitation of the pruned networks, we propose to apply neural architecture search to search directly for a network with flexible channel and layer sizes. The number of the channels/layers is learned by minimizing the loss of the pruned networks. The feature map of the pruned network is an aggregation of K feature map fragments (generated by K networks of different sizes), which are sampled based on the probability distribution.The loss can be back-propagated not only to the network weights, but also to the parameterized distribution to explicitly tune the size of the channels/layers. Specifically, we apply channel-wise interpolation to keep the feature map with different channel sizes aligned in the aggregation procedure. The maximum probability for the size in each distribution serves as the width and depth of the pruned network, whose parameters are learned by knowledge transfer, e.g., knowledge distillation, from the original networks. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of our new perspective of network pruning compared to traditional network pruning algorithms. Various searching and knowledge transfer approaches are conducted to show the effectiveness of the two components. Code is at: https://github.com/D-X-Y/NAS-Projects.

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a weight sharing scheme inspired from restricted Boltzmann machines, to yield an estimator that is both tractable and has good generalization performance. We discuss how they achieve competitive performance in modeling both binary and real-valued observations. We also present how deep NADE models can be trained to be agnostic to the ordering of input dimensions used by the autoregressive product rule decomposition. Finally, we also show how to exploit the topological structure of pixels in images using a deep convolutional architecture for NADE.

Mu3e is an experiment currently under construction at the Paul Scherrer Institute in Switzerland, designed to search for the Lepton Flavor Violating (LFV) decay mu^+ rightarrow e^+e^-e^+. In extensions of the Standard Model (SM) that account for neutrino masses, this decay is theoretically allowed but occurs only through extremely rare loop processes, with a predicted branching ratio of approximately O(10^{-54}). Such a small probability implies that any observation of this decay would provide clear evidence for physics beyond the SM. The Mu3e experiment aims to probe the mu^+ rightarrow e^+e^-e^+ decay with a sensitivity of approximately O(10^{-15}) in its Phase-1 and plans to achieve a sensitivity of O(10^{-16}) after future upgrades. To reach its Phase-1 ambitious goals, Mu3e is going to use the most intense continuous muon beam in the world, generating 10^{8} muon stops per second in the target placed at the center of the Mu3e. Mu3e will use three main technologies for particle detection. The tracking will done through ultra-thin (50 - 70 mu m) pixel detectors based on MuPix11 sensors. These are high-voltage monolithic active pixel sensors (HV-MAPS) with a sim 23~mum spatial resolution. The timing will be done through scintillating fibres (sim 250 ps) and tiles (sim 40 ps), coupled to silicon photomultipliers and read out by MuTRiG3 ASICs. A triggerless DAQ system based on FPGAs will collect data from the detectors, which will then undergo reconstruction in a GPU filter farm. The assembly of the detectors has started, with a detector commissioning beam time planned for 2025. This document reports on the status of the construction, installation, and data-taking plans for the near future.

Audio super-resolution is challenging owing to its ill-posed nature. Recently, the application of diffusion models in audio super-resolution has shown promising results in alleviating this challenge. However, diffusion-based models have limitations, primarily the necessity for numerous sampling steps, which causes significantly increased latency when synthesizing high-quality audio samples. In this paper, we propose FLowHigh, a novel approach that integrates flow matching, a highly efficient generative model, into audio super-resolution. We also explore probability paths specially tailored for audio super-resolution, which effectively capture high-resolution audio distributions, thereby enhancing reconstruction quality. The proposed method generates high-fidelity, high-resolution audio through a single-step sampling process across various input sampling rates. The experimental results on the VCTK benchmark dataset demonstrate that FLowHigh achieves state-of-the-art performance in audio super-resolution, as evaluated by log-spectral distance and ViSQOL while maintaining computational efficiency with only a single-step sampling process.

Expanding on neural operators, we propose a novel framework for stochastic process learning across arbitrary domains. In particular, we develop operator flow matching (OFM) for learning stochastic process priors on function spaces. OFM provides the probability density of the values of any collection of points and enables mathematically tractable functional regression at new points with mean and density estimation. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models in stochastic process learning, functional regression, and prior learning.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

We introduce two complementary techniques for efficient adaptive optimization that reduce memory requirements while accelerating training of large-scale neural networks. The first technique, Subset-Norm adaptive step size, generalizes AdaGrad-Norm and AdaGrad(-Coordinate) by reducing the second moment term's memory footprint from O(d) to O(d) through step-size sharing, where d is the model size. For non-convex smooth objectives under coordinate-wise sub-gaussian gradient noise, we prove a noise-adapted high-probability convergence guarantee showing improved dimensional dependence over existing methods. Our second technique, Subspace-Momentum, reduces the momentum state's memory footprint by operating in a low-dimensional subspace while applying standard SGD in the orthogonal complement. We establish high-probability convergence rates under similar relaxed assumptions. Empirical evaluation on LLaMA models from 60M to 1B parameters demonstrates the effectiveness of our methods, where combining subset-norm with subspace-momentum achieves Adam's validation perplexity in approximately half the training tokens (6.8B vs 13.1B) while using only 20% of the Adam's optimizer-states memory footprint and requiring minimal additional hyperparameter tuning.

Authorship attribution aims to identify the origin or author of a document. Traditional approaches have heavily relied on manual features and fail to capture long-range correlations, limiting their effectiveness. Recent advancements leverage text embeddings from pre-trained language models, which require significant fine-tuning on labeled data, posing challenges in data dependency and limited interpretability. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their deep reasoning capabilities and ability to maintain long-range textual associations, offer a promising alternative. This study explores the potential of pre-trained LLMs in one-shot authorship attribution, specifically utilizing Bayesian approaches and probability outputs of LLMs. Our methodology calculates the probability that a text entails previous writings of an author, reflecting a more nuanced understanding of authorship. By utilizing only pre-trained models such as Llama-3-70B, our results on the IMDb and blog datasets show an impressive 85\% accuracy in one-shot authorship classification across ten authors. Our findings set new baselines for one-shot authorship analysis using LLMs and expand the application scope of these models in forensic linguistics. This work also includes extensive ablation studies to validate our approach.

Diffusion models have shown promising results in cross-modal generation tasks involving audio and music, such as text-to-sound and text-to-music generation. These text-controlled music generation models typically focus on generating music by capturing global musical attributes like genre and mood. However, music composition is a complex, multilayered task that often involves musical arrangement as an integral part of the process. This process involves composing each instrument to align with existing ones in terms of beat, dynamics, harmony, and melody, requiring greater precision and control over tracks than text prompts usually provide. In this work, we address these challenges by extending the MusicLDM, a latent diffusion model for music, into a multi-track generative model. By learning the joint probability of tracks sharing a context, our model is capable of generating music across several tracks that correspond well to each other, either conditionally or unconditionally. Additionally, our model is capable of arrangement generation, where the model can generate any subset of tracks given the others (e.g., generating a piano track complementing given bass and drum tracks). We compared our model with an existing multi-track generative model and demonstrated that our model achieves considerable improvements across objective metrics for both total and arrangement generation tasks.

Hallucinations in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) where generated responses fail to accurately reflect the given image pose a significant challenge to their reliability. To address this, we introduce ConVis, a novel training-free contrastive decoding method. ConVis leverages a text-to-image (T2I) generation model to semantically reconstruct the given image from hallucinated captions. By comparing the contrasting probability distributions produced by the original and reconstructed images, ConVis enables MLLMs to capture visual contrastive signals that penalize hallucination generation. Notably, this method operates purely within the decoding process, eliminating the need for additional data or model updates. Our extensive experiments on five popular benchmarks demonstrate that ConVis effectively reduces hallucinations across various MLLMs, highlighting its potential to enhance model reliability.

Straightening the probability flow of the continuous-time generative models, such as diffusion models or flow-based models, is the key to fast sampling through the numerical solvers, existing methods learn a linear path by directly generating the probability path the joint distribution between the noise and data distribution. One key reason for the slow sampling speed of the ODE-based solvers that simulate these generative models is the global truncation error of the ODE solver, caused by the high curvature of the ODE trajectory, which explodes the truncation error of the numerical solvers in the low-NFE regime. To address this challenge, We propose a novel method called SeqRF, a learning technique that straightens the probability flow to reduce the global truncation error and hence enable acceleration of sampling and improve the synthesis quality. In both theoretical and empirical studies, we first observe the straightening property of our SeqRF. Through empirical evaluations via SeqRF over flow-based generative models, We achieve surpassing results on CIFAR-10, CelebA-64 times 64, and LSUN-Church datasets.

Efficient molecular modeling and design are crucial for the discovery and exploration of novel molecules, and the incorporation of deep learning methods has revolutionized this field. In particular, large language models (LLMs) offer a fresh approach to tackle scientific problems from a natural language processing (NLP) perspective, introducing a research paradigm called scientific language modeling (SLM). However, two key issues remain: how to quantify the match between model and data modalities and how to identify the knowledge-learning preferences of models. To address these challenges, we propose a multi-modal benchmark, named ChEBI-20-MM, and perform 1263 experiments to assess the model's compatibility with data modalities and knowledge acquisition. Through the modal transition probability matrix, we provide insights into the most suitable modalities for tasks. Furthermore, we introduce a statistically interpretable approach to discover context-specific knowledge mapping by localized feature filtering. Our pioneering analysis offers an exploration of the learning mechanism and paves the way for advancing SLM in molecular science.

Mixture models are traditionally represented and learned by adding several distributions as components. Allowing mixtures to subtract probability mass or density can drastically reduce the number of components needed to model complex distributions. However, learning such subtractive mixtures while ensuring they still encode a non-negative function is challenging. We investigate how to learn and perform inference on deep subtractive mixtures by squaring them. We do this in the framework of probabilistic circuits, which enable us to represent tensorized mixtures and generalize several other subtractive models. We theoretically prove that the class of squared circuits allowing subtractions can be exponentially more expressive than traditional additive mixtures; and, we empirically show this increased expressiveness on a series of real-world distribution estimation tasks.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are used to model environments where the full state cannot be perceived by an agent. As such the agent needs to reason taking into account the past observations and actions. However, simply remembering the full history is generally intractable due to the exponential growth in the history space. Maintaining a probability distribution that models the belief over what the true state is can be used as a sufficient statistic of the history, but its computation requires access to the model of the environment and is often intractable. While SOTA algorithms use Recurrent Neural Networks to compress the observation-action history aiming to learn a sufficient statistic, they lack guarantees of success and can lead to sub-optimal policies. To overcome this, we propose the Wasserstein Belief Updater, an RL algorithm that learns a latent model of the POMDP and an approximation of the belief update. Our approach comes with theoretical guarantees on the quality of our approximation ensuring that our outputted beliefs allow for learning the optimal value function.

Existing Score-Based Models (SBMs) can be categorized into constrained SBMs (CSBMs) or unconstrained SBMs (USBMs) according to their parameterization approaches. CSBMs model probability density functions as Boltzmann distributions, and assign their predictions as the negative gradients of some scalar-valued energy functions. On the other hand, USBMs employ flexible architectures capable of directly estimating scores without the need to explicitly model energy functions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the architectural constraints of CSBMs may limit their modeling ability. In addition, we show that USBMs' inability to preserve the property of conservativeness may lead to degraded performance in practice. To address the above issues, we propose Quasi-Conservative Score-Based Models (QCSBMs) for keeping the advantages of both CSBMs and USBMs. Our theoretical derivations demonstrate that the training objective of QCSBMs can be efficiently integrated into the training processes by leveraging the Hutchinson's trace estimator. In addition, our experimental results on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and SVHN datasets validate the effectiveness of QCSBMs. Finally, we justify the advantage of QCSBMs using an example of a one-layered autoencoder.

Optimal transport (OT) compares probability distributions by computing a meaningful alignment between their samples. CO-optimal transport (COOT) takes this comparison further by inferring an alignment between features as well. While this approach leads to better alignments and generalizes both OT and Gromov-Wasserstein distances, we provide a theoretical result showing that it is sensitive to outliers that are omnipresent in real-world data. This prompts us to propose unbalanced COOT for which we provably show its robustness to noise in the compared datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such result for OT methods in incomparable spaces. With this result in hand, we provide empirical evidence of this robustness for the challenging tasks of heterogeneous domain adaptation with and without varying proportions of classes and simultaneous alignment of samples and features across single-cell measurements.

With an estimated 160,000 deaths in 2018, lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Lung cancer CT screening has been shown to reduce mortality by up to 40% and is now included in US screening guidelines. Reducing the high error rates in lung cancer screening is imperative because of the high clinical and financial costs caused by diagnosis mistakes. Despite the use of standards for radiological diagnosis, persistent inter-grader variability and incomplete characterization of comprehensive imaging findings remain as limitations of current methods. These limitations suggest opportunities for more sophisticated systems to improve performance and inter-reader consistency. In this report, we reproduce a state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm for lung cancer risk prediction. Our model predicts malignancy probability and risk bucket classification from lung CT studies. This allows for risk categorization of patients being screened and suggests the most appropriate surveillance and management. Combining our solution high accuracy, consistency and fully automated nature, our approach may enable highly efficient screening procedures and accelerate the adoption of lung cancer screening.

Deep networks often suffer from vanishing or exploding gradients due to inefficient signal propagation, leading to long training times or convergence difficulties. Various architecture designs, sophisticated residual-style networks, and initialization schemes have been shown to improve deep signal propagation. Recently, Pennington et al. used free probability theory to show that dynamical isometry plays an integral role in efficient deep learning. We show that the simplest architecture change of gating each residual connection using a single zero-initialized parameter satisfies initial dynamical isometry and outperforms more complex approaches. Although much simpler than its predecessors, this gate enables training thousands of fully connected layers with fast convergence and better test performance for ResNets trained on CIFAR-10. We apply this technique to language modeling and find that we can easily train 120-layer Transformers. When applied to 12 layer Transformers, it converges 56% faster on enwiki8.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

In this paper, we propose a novel model compression approach to effectively compress BERT by progressive module replacing. Our approach first divides the original BERT into several modules and builds their compact substitutes. Then, we randomly replace the original modules with their substitutes to train the compact modules to mimic the behavior of the original modules. We progressively increase the probability of replacement through the training. In this way, our approach brings a deeper level of interaction between the original and compact models. Compared to the previous knowledge distillation approaches for BERT compression, our approach does not introduce any additional loss function. Our approach outperforms existing knowledge distillation approaches on GLUE benchmark, showing a new perspective of model compression.

Motivation: Ab initio protein docking represents a major challenge for optimizing a noisy and costly "black box"-like function in a high-dimensional space. Despite progress in this field, there is no docking method available for rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) of its solution quality (e.g. interface RMSD or iRMSD). Results: We introduce a novel algorithm, Bayesian Active Learning (BAL), for optimization and UQ of such black-box functions and flexible protein docking. BAL directly models the posterior distribution of the global optimum (or native structures for protein docking) with active sampling and posterior estimation iteratively feeding each other. Furthermore, we use complex normal modes to represent a homogeneous Euclidean conformation space suitable for high-dimension optimization and construct funnel-like energy models for encounter complexes. Over a protein docking benchmark set and a CAPRI set including homology docking, we establish that BAL significantly improve against both starting points by rigid docking and refinements by particle swarm optimization, providing for one third targets a top-3 near-native prediction. BAL also generates tight confidence intervals with half range around 25% of iRMSD and confidence level at 85%. Its estimated probability of a prediction being native or not achieves binary classification AUROC at 0.93 and AUPRC over 0.60 (compared to 0.14 by chance); and also found to help ranking predictions. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first uncertainty quantification solution for protein docking, with theoretical rigor and comprehensive assessment. Source codes are available at https://github.com/Shen-Lab/BAL.

Many poker systems, whether created with heuristics or machine learning, rely on the probability of winning as a key input. However calculating the precise probability using combinatorics is an intractable problem, so instead we approximate it. Monte Carlo simulation is an effective technique that can be used to approximate the probability that a player will win and/or tie a hand. However, without the use of a memory-intensive lookup table or a supercomputer, it becomes infeasible to run millions of times when training an agent with self-play. To combat the space-time tradeoff, we use deep learning to approximate the probabilities obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation with high accuracy. The learned model proves to be a lightweight alternative to Monte Carlo simulation, which ultimately allows us to use the probabilities as inputs during self-play efficiently. The source code and optimized neural network can be found at https://github.com/brandinho/Poker-Probability-Approximation

We investigate the training and performance of generative adversarial networks using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) as critic, termed MMD GANs. As our main theoretical contribution, we clarify the situation with bias in GAN loss functions raised by recent work: we show that gradient estimators used in the optimization process for both MMD GANs and Wasserstein GANs are unbiased, but learning a discriminator based on samples leads to biased gradients for the generator parameters. We also discuss the issue of kernel choice for the MMD critic, and characterize the kernel corresponding to the energy distance used for the Cramer GAN critic. Being an integral probability metric, the MMD benefits from training strategies recently developed for Wasserstein GANs. In experiments, the MMD GAN is able to employ a smaller critic network than the Wasserstein GAN, resulting in a simpler and faster-training algorithm with matching performance. We also propose an improved measure of GAN convergence, the Kernel Inception Distance, and show how to use it to dynamically adapt learning rates during GAN training.

In October 2007, a Research Proposal for the University of Sydney, Australia, the author suggested that biovie-physical phenomenon as `electrodynamic dependant biological vision', is governed by relativistic quantum laws and biovision. The phenomenon on the basis of `biovielectroluminescence', satisfies man/microbio/megabio/computer vision (MMMCV), as a robust candidate for physical and visual sciences. The general aim of this addendum is to present a refined text of Sections 1-3 of that proposal and highlighting the contents of its Appendix in form of a `Mechanisms' Section. We then briefly remind in an article aimed for December 2007, by appending two more equations into Section 3, a theoretical II-time scenario as a time model well-proposed for the phenomenon. The time model within the core of the proposal, plays a significant role in emphasizing the principle points on Objectives no. 1-8, Sub-hypothesis 3.1.2, mentioned in Article [arXiv:0710.0410]. It also expresses the time concept in terms of causing quantized energy f(|E|) of time |t|, emit in regard to shortening the probability of particle loci as predictable patterns of particle's un-occurred motion, a solution to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle (HUP) into a simplistic manner. We conclude that, practical frames via a time algorithm to this model, fixates such predictable patterns of motion of scenery bodies onto recordable observation points of a MMMCV system. It even suppresses/predicts superposition phenomena coming from a human subject and/or other bio-subjects for any decision making event, e.g., brainwave quantum patterns based on vision. Maintaining the existential probability of Riemann surfaces of II-time scenarios in the context of biovielectroluminescence, makes motion-prediction a possibility.

Instruction tuning commonly means finetuning a language model on instruction-response pairs. We discover two forms of adaptation (tuning) that are deficient compared to instruction tuning, yet still yield instruction following; we call this implicit instruction tuning. We first find that instruction-response pairs are not necessary: training solely on responses, without any corresponding instructions, yields instruction following. This suggests pretrained models have an instruction-response mapping which is revealed by teaching the model the desired distribution of responses. However, we then find it's not necessary to teach the desired distribution of responses: instruction-response training on narrow-domain data like poetry still leads to broad instruction-following behavior like recipe generation. In particular, when instructions are very different from those in the narrow finetuning domain, models' responses do not adhere to the style of the finetuning domain. To begin to explain implicit instruction tuning, we hypothesize that very simple changes to a language model's distribution yield instruction following. We support this by hand-writing a rule-based language model which yields instruction following in a product-of-experts with a pretrained model. The rules are to slowly increase the probability of ending the sequence, penalize repetition, and uniformly change 15 words' probabilities. In summary, adaptations made without being designed to yield instruction following can do so implicitly.

Images produced by diffusion models are increasingly popular in digital artwork and visual marketing. However, such generated images might replicate content from existing ones and pose the challenge of content originality. Existing Image Copy Detection (ICD) models, though accurate in detecting hand-crafted replicas, overlook the challenge from diffusion models. This motivates us to introduce ICDiff, the first ICD specialized for diffusion models. To this end, we construct a Diffusion-Replication (D-Rep) dataset and correspondingly propose a novel deep embedding method. D-Rep uses a state-of-the-art diffusion model (Stable Diffusion V1.5) to generate 40, 000 image-replica pairs, which are manually annotated into 6 replication levels ranging from 0 (no replication) to 5 (total replication). Our method, PDF-Embedding, transforms the replication level of each image-replica pair into a probability density function (PDF) as the supervision signal. The intuition is that the probability of neighboring replication levels should be continuous and smooth. Experimental results show that PDF-Embedding surpasses protocol-driven methods and non-PDF choices on the D-Rep test set. Moreover, by utilizing PDF-Embedding, we find that the replication ratios of well-known diffusion models against an open-source gallery range from 10% to 20%.

Although diffusion models can generate remarkably high-quality samples, they are intrinsically bottlenecked by their expensive iterative sampling procedure. Consistency models (CMs) have recently emerged as a promising diffusion model distillation method, reducing the cost of sampling by generating high-fidelity samples in just a few iterations. Consistency model distillation aims to solve the probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) defined by an existing diffusion model. CMs are not directly trained to minimize error against an ODE solver, rather they use a more computationally tractable objective. As a way to study how effectively CMs solve the probability flow ODE, and the effect that any induced error has on the quality of generated samples, we introduce Direct CMs, which directly minimize this error. Intriguingly, we find that Direct CMs reduce the ODE solving error compared to CMs but also result in significantly worse sample quality, calling into question why exactly CMs work well in the first place. Full code is available at: https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/direct-cms.

Drafting-then-verifying decoding methods such as speculative decoding are widely adopted training-free methods to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs). Instead of employing an autoregressive process to decode tokens sequentially, speculative decoding initially creates drafts with an efficient small model. Then LLMs are required to conduct verification and correction in a non-autoregressive fashion to minimize time overhead. Generating longer drafts can lead to even more significant speedups once verified, but also incurs substantial trial and error costs if it fails. Suffering from the high verification failure probability, existing decoding methods cannot draft too much content for verification at one time, achieving sub-optimal inference acceleration. In this paper, we introduce Ouroboros, which constructs a phrase candidate pool from the verification process of LLMs to provide candidates for draft generation of the small model. Thereby, Ouroboros can further improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the initial drafts. The experimental results on typical text generation tasks show that Ouroboros achieves speedups of up to 1.9x and 2.8x compared to lookahead decoding and speculative decoding, respectively. The source code of Ouroboros is available at https://github.com/thunlp/Ouroboros.

Multi-view consistency remains a challenge for image diffusion models. Even within the Text-to-Texture problem, where perfect geometric correspondences are known a priori, many methods fail to yield aligned predictions across views, necessitating non-trivial fusion methods to incorporate the results onto the original mesh. We explore this issue for a Collaborative Control workflow specifically in PBR Text-to-Texture. Collaborative Control directly models PBR image probability distributions, including normal bump maps; to our knowledge, the only diffusion model to directly output full PBR stacks. We discuss the design decisions involved in making this model multi-view consistent, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in ablation studies, as well as practical applications.

Image restoration problems are typically ill-posed in the sense that each degraded image can be restored in infinitely many valid ways. To accommodate this, many works generate a diverse set of outputs by attempting to randomly sample from the posterior distribution of natural images given the degraded input. Here we argue that this strategy is commonly of limited practical value because of the heavy tail of the posterior distribution. Consider for example inpainting a missing region of the sky in an image. Since there is a high probability that the missing region contains no object but clouds, any set of samples from the posterior would be entirely dominated by (practically identical) completions of sky. However, arguably, presenting users with only one clear sky completion, along with several alternative solutions such as airships, birds, and balloons, would better outline the set of possibilities. In this paper, we initiate the study of meaningfully diverse image restoration. We explore several post-processing approaches that can be combined with any diverse image restoration method to yield semantically meaningful diversity. Moreover, we propose a practical approach for allowing diffusion based image restoration methods to generate meaningfully diverse outputs, while incurring only negligent computational overhead. We conduct extensive user studies to analyze the proposed techniques, and find the strategy of reducing similarity between outputs to be significantly favorable over posterior sampling. Code and examples are available at https://noa-cohen.github.io/MeaningfulDiversityInIR.

Recent breakthroughs in text-to-image synthesis have been driven by diffusion models trained on billions of image-text pairs. Adapting this approach to 3D synthesis would require large-scale datasets of labeled 3D data and efficient architectures for denoising 3D data, neither of which currently exist. In this work, we circumvent these limitations by using a pretrained 2D text-to-image diffusion model to perform text-to-3D synthesis. We introduce a loss based on probability density distillation that enables the use of a 2D diffusion model as a prior for optimization of a parametric image generator. Using this loss in a DeepDream-like procedure, we optimize a randomly-initialized 3D model (a Neural Radiance Field, or NeRF) via gradient descent such that its 2D renderings from random angles achieve a low loss. The resulting 3D model of the given text can be viewed from any angle, relit by arbitrary illumination, or composited into any 3D environment. Our approach requires no 3D training data and no modifications to the image diffusion model, demonstrating the effectiveness of pretrained image diffusion models as priors.

Efficient, reliable and reproducible target volume delineation is a key step in the effective planning of breast radiotherapy. However, post-operative breast target delineation is challenging as the contrast between the tumor bed volume (TBV) and normal breast tissue is relatively low in CT images. In this study, we propose to mimic the marker-guidance procedure in manual target delineation. We developed a saliency-based deep learning segmentation (SDL-Seg) algorithm for accurate TBV segmentation in post-operative breast irradiation. The SDL-Seg algorithm incorporates saliency information in the form of markers' location cues into a U-Net model. The design forces the model to encode the location-related features, which underscores regions with high saliency levels and suppresses low saliency regions. The saliency maps were generated by identifying markers on CT images. Markers' locations were then converted to probability maps using a distance-transformation coupled with a Gaussian filter. Subsequently, the CT images and the corresponding saliency maps formed a multi-channel input for the SDL-Seg network. Our in-house dataset was comprised of 145 prone CT images from 29 post-operative breast cancer patients, who received 5-fraction partial breast irradiation (PBI) regimen on GammaPod. The performance of the proposed method was compared against basic U-Net. Our model achieved mean (standard deviation) of 76.4 %, 6.76 mm, and 1.9 mm for DSC, HD95, and ASD respectively on the test set with computation time of below 11 seconds per one CT volume. SDL-Seg showed superior performance relative to basic U-Net for all the evaluation metrics while preserving low computation cost. The findings demonstrate that SDL-Seg is a promising approach for improving the efficiency and accuracy of the on-line treatment planning procedure of PBI, such as GammaPod based PBI.

Learning from preference labels plays a crucial role in fine-tuning large language models. There are several distinct approaches for preference fine-tuning, including supervised learning, on-policy reinforcement learning (RL), and contrastive learning. Different methods come with different implementation tradeoffs and performance differences, and existing empirical findings present different conclusions, for instance, some results show that online RL is quite important to attain good fine-tuning results, while others find (offline) contrastive or even purely supervised methods sufficient. This raises a natural question: what kind of approaches are important for fine-tuning with preference data and why? In this paper, we answer this question by performing a rigorous analysis of a number of fine-tuning techniques on didactic and full-scale LLM problems. Our main finding is that, in general, approaches that use on-policy sampling or attempt to push down the likelihood on certain responses (i.e., employ a "negative gradient") outperform offline and maximum likelihood objectives. We conceptualize our insights and unify methods that use on-policy sampling or negative gradient under a notion of mode-seeking objectives for categorical distributions. Mode-seeking objectives are able to alter probability mass on specific bins of a categorical distribution at a fast rate compared to maximum likelihood, allowing them to relocate masses across bins more effectively. Our analysis prescribes actionable insights for preference fine-tuning of LLMs and informs how data should be collected for maximal improvement.

In large language models like the Generative Pre-trained Transformer, the Mixture of Experts paradigm has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing model expressiveness and accuracy. However, deploying GPT MoE models for parallel inference on distributed systems presents significant challenges, primarily due to the extensive Alltoall communication required for expert routing and aggregation. This communication bottleneck exacerbates the already complex computational landscape, hindering the efficient utilization of high-performance computing resources. In this paper, we propose a lightweight optimization technique called ExFlow, to largely accelerate the inference of these MoE models. We take a new perspective on alleviating the communication overhead by exploiting the inter-layer expert affinity. Unlike previous methods, our solution can be directly applied to pre-trained MoE models without any fine-tuning or accuracy degradation. By proposing a context-coherent expert parallelism on distributed systems, our design only uses one Alltoall communication to deliver the same functionality while previous methods all require two Alltoalls. By carefully examining the conditional probability in tokens' routing across multiple layers, we proved that pre-trained GPT MoE models implicitly exhibit a strong inter-layer expert affinity. We then design an efficient integer programming model to capture such features and show that by properly placing the experts on corresponding GPUs, we can reduce up to 67% cross-GPU routing latency. Our solution beats the cutting-edge MoE implementations with experts from 8 to 64, with up to 2.2x improvement in inference throughput. We further provide a detailed study of how the model implicitly acquires this expert affinity at the very early training stage and how this affinity evolves and stabilizes during training.

Generative models are a class of machine learning models that aim to learn the underlying probability distribution of data. Unlike discriminative models, generative models focus on capturing the data's inherent structure, allowing them to generate new samples that resemble the original data. To fully exploit the potential of modeling probability distributions using quantum physics, a quantum-inspired generative model known as the Born machines have shown great advancements in learning classical and quantum data over matrix product state(MPS) framework. The Born machines support tractable log-likelihood, autoregressive and mask sampling, and have shown outstanding performance in various unsupervised learning tasks. However, much of the current research has been centered on improving the expressive power of MPS, predominantly embedding each token directly by a corresponding tensor index. In this study, we generalize the embedding method into trainable quantum measurement operators that can be simultaneously honed with MPS. Our study indicated that combined with trainable embedding, Born machines can exhibit better performance and learn deeper correlations from the dataset.

Extensive system scales (i.e. thousands of GPU/TPUs) and prolonged training periods (i.e. months of pretraining) significantly escalate the probability of failures when training large language models (LLMs). Thus, efficient and reliable fault-tolerance methods are in urgent need. Checkpointing is the primary fault-tolerance method to periodically save parameter snapshots from GPU memory to disks via CPU memory. In this paper, we identify the frequency of existing checkpoint-based fault-tolerance being significantly limited by the storage I/O overheads, which results in hefty re-training costs on restarting from the nearest checkpoint. In response to this gap, we introduce an in-memory fault-tolerance framework for large-scale LLM pretraining. The framework boosts the efficiency and reliability of fault tolerance from three aspects: (1) Reduced Data Transfer and I/O: By asynchronously caching parameters, i.e., sharded model parameters, optimizer states, and RNG states, to CPU volatile memory, Our framework significantly reduces communication costs and bypasses checkpoint I/O. (2) Enhanced System Reliability: Our framework enhances parameter protection with a two-layer hierarchy: snapshot management processes (SMPs) safeguard against software failures, together with Erasure Coding (EC) protecting against node failures. This double-layered protection greatly improves the survival probability of the parameters compared to existing checkpointing methods. (3) Improved Snapshotting Frequency: Our framework achieves more frequent snapshotting compared with asynchronous checkpointing optimizations under the same saving time budget, which improves the fault tolerance efficiency. Empirical results demonstrate that Our framework minimizes the overhead of fault tolerance of LLM pretraining by effectively leveraging redundant CPU resources.

Deciphering the semantics of animal language has been a grand challenge. This study presents a data-driven investigation into the semantics of dog vocalizations via correlating different sound types with consistent semantics. We first present a new dataset of Shiba Inu sounds, along with contextual information such as location and activity, collected from YouTube with a well-constructed pipeline. The framework is also applicable to other animal species. Based on the analysis of conditioned probability between dog vocalizations and corresponding location and activity, we discover supporting evidence for previous heuristic research on the semantic meaning of various dog sounds. For instance, growls can signify interactions. Furthermore, our study yields new insights that existing word types can be subdivided into finer-grained subtypes and minimal semantic unit for Shiba Inu is word-related. For example, whimper can be subdivided into two types, attention-seeking and discomfort.

The parameter space for any fixed architecture of feedforward ReLU neural networks serves as a proxy during training for the associated class of functions - but how faithful is this representation? It is known that many different parameter settings can determine the same function. Moreover, the degree of this redundancy is inhomogeneous: for some networks, the only symmetries are permutation of neurons in a layer and positive scaling of parameters at a neuron, while other networks admit additional hidden symmetries. In this work, we prove that, for any network architecture where no layer is narrower than the input, there exist parameter settings with no hidden symmetries. We also describe a number of mechanisms through which hidden symmetries can arise, and empirically approximate the functional dimension of different network architectures at initialization. These experiments indicate that the probability that a network has no hidden symmetries decreases towards 0 as depth increases, while increasing towards 1 as width and input dimension increase.

When large language models (LMs) are applied in zero- or few-shot settings to discriminative tasks such as multiple-choice questions, their attentiveness (i.e., probability mass) is spread across many vocabulary tokens that are not valid choices. Such a spread across multiple surface forms with identical meaning is thought to cause an underestimation of a model's true performance, referred to as the "surface form competition" (SFC) hypothesis. This has motivated the introduction of various probability normalization methods. However, many core questions remain unanswered. How do we measure SFC or attentiveness? Are there direct ways of increasing attentiveness on valid choices? Does increasing attentiveness always improve task accuracy? We propose a mathematical formalism for studying this phenomenon, provide a metric for quantifying attentiveness, and identify a simple method for increasing it -- namely, in-context learning with even just one example containing answer choices. The formalism allows us to quantify SFC and bound its impact. Our experiments on three diverse datasets and six LMs reveal several surprising findings. For example, encouraging models to generate a valid answer choice can, in fact, be detrimental to task performance for some LMs, and prior probability normalization methods are less effective (sometimes even detrimental) to instruction-tuned LMs. We conclude with practical insights for effectively using prompted LMs for multiple-choice tasks.

Conditional language models are predominantly trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), giving probability mass to sparsely observed target sequences. While MLE trained models assign high probability to plausible sequences given the context, the model probabilities often do not accurately rank-order generated sequences by quality. This has been empirically observed in beam search decoding as output quality degrading with large beam sizes, and decoding strategies benefiting from heuristics such as length normalization and repetition-blocking. In this work, we introduce sequence likelihood calibration (SLiC) where the likelihood of model generated sequences are calibrated to better align with reference sequences in the model's latent space. With SLiC, decoding heuristics become unnecessary and decoding candidates' quality significantly improves regardless of the decoding method. Furthermore, SLiC shows no sign of diminishing returns with model scale, and presents alternative ways to improve quality with limited training and inference budgets. With SLiC, we exceed or match SOTA results on a wide range of generation tasks spanning abstractive summarization, question generation, abstractive question answering and data-to-text generation, even with modest-sized models.

While contrastive learning is proven to be an effective training strategy in computer vision, Natural Language Processing (NLP) is only recently adopting it as a self-supervised alternative to Masked Language Modeling (MLM) for improving sequence representations. This paper introduces SupCL-Seq, which extends the supervised contrastive learning from computer vision to the optimization of sequence representations in NLP. By altering the dropout mask probability in standard Transformer architectures, for every representation (anchor), we generate augmented altered views. A supervised contrastive loss is then utilized to maximize the system's capability of pulling together similar samples (e.g., anchors and their altered views) and pushing apart the samples belonging to the other classes. Despite its simplicity, SupCLSeq leads to large gains in many sequence classification tasks on the GLUE benchmark compared to a standard BERTbase, including 6% absolute improvement on CoLA, 5.4% on MRPC, 4.7% on RTE and 2.6% on STSB. We also show consistent gains over self supervised contrastively learned representations, especially in non-semantic tasks. Finally we show that these gains are not solely due to augmentation, but rather to a downstream optimized sequence representation. Code: https://github.com/hooman650/SupCL-Seq

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a de-facto approach for aligning language models with human preferences. Recent work has shown DPO's effectiveness relies on training data quality. In particular, clear quality differences between preferred and rejected responses enhance learning performance. Current methods for identifying and obtaining such high-quality samples demand additional resources or external models. We discover that reference model probability space naturally detects high-quality training samples. Using this insight, we present a sampling strategy that achieves consistent improvements (+0.1 to +0.4) on MT-Bench while using less than half (30-50%) of the training data. We observe substantial improvements (+0.4 to +0.98) for technical tasks (coding, math, and reasoning) across multiple models and hyperparameter settings.

Verifying the provenance of content is crucial to the function of many organizations, e.g., educational institutions, social media platforms, firms, etc. This problem is becoming increasingly difficult as text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) becomes almost indistinguishable from human-generated content. In addition, many institutions utilize in-house LLMs and want to ensure that external, non-sanctioned LLMs do not produce content within the institution. In this paper, we answer the following question: Given a piece of text, can we identify whether it was produced by LLM A or B (where B can be a human)? We model LLM-generated text as a sequential stochastic process with complete dependence on history and design zero-shot statistical tests to distinguish between (i) the text generated by two different sets of LLMs A (in-house) and B (non-sanctioned) and also (ii) LLM-generated and human-generated texts. We prove that the type I and type II errors for our tests decrease exponentially in the text length. In designing our tests, we derive concentration inequalities on the difference between log-perplexity and the average entropy of the string under A. Specifically, for a given string, we demonstrate that if the string is generated by A, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average entropy of the string under A, except with an exponentially small probability in string length. We also show that if B generates the text, except with an exponentially small probability in string length, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average cross-entropy of B and A. Lastly, we present preliminary experimental results to support our theoretical results. By enabling guaranteed (with high probability) finding of the origin of harmful LLM-generated text with arbitrary size, we can help combat misinformation.

Multi-speaker localization and tracking using microphone array recording is of importance in a wide range of applications. One of the challenges with multi-speaker tracking is to associate direction estimates with the correct speaker. Most existing association approaches rely on spatial or spectral information alone, leading to performance degradation when one of these information channels is partially known or missing. This paper studies a joint probability data association (JPDA)-based method that facilitates association based on joint spatial-spectral information. This is achieved by integrating speaker time-frequency (TF) masks, estimated based on spectral information, in the association probabilities calculation. An experimental study that tested the proposed method on recordings from the LOCATA challenge demonstrates the enhanced performance obtained by using joint spatial-spectral information in the association.

In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

Normalizing flows can transform a simple prior probability distribution into a more complex target distribution. Here, we evaluate the ability and efficiency of generative machine learning methods to sample the Boltzmann distribution of an atomistic model for glass-forming liquids. This is a notoriously difficult task, as it amounts to ergodically exploring the complex free energy landscape of a disordered and frustrated many-body system. We optimize a normalizing flow model to successfully transform high-temperature configurations of a dense liquid into low-temperature ones, near the glass transition. We perform a detailed comparative analysis with established enhanced sampling techniques developed in the physics literature to assess and rank the performance of normalizing flows against state-of-the-art algorithms. We demonstrate that machine learning methods are very promising, showing a large speedup over conventional molecular dynamics. Normalizing flows show performances comparable to parallel tempering and population annealing, while still falling far behind the swap Monte Carlo algorithm. Our study highlights the potential of generative machine learning models in scientific computing for complex systems, but also points to some of its current limitations and the need for further improvement.

The choice of batch sizes in stochastic gradient optimizers is critical for model training. However, the practice of varying batch sizes throughout the training process is less explored compared to other hyperparameters. We investigate adaptive batch size strategies derived from adaptive sampling methods, traditionally applied only in stochastic gradient descent. Given the significant interplay between learning rates and batch sizes, and considering the prevalence of adaptive gradient methods in deep learning, we emphasize the need for adaptive batch size strategies in these contexts. We introduce AdAdaGrad and its scalar variant AdAdaGradNorm, which incrementally increase batch sizes during training, while model updates are performed using AdaGrad and AdaGradNorm. We prove that AdaGradNorm converges with high probability at a rate of O(1/K) for finding a first-order stationary point of smooth nonconvex functions within K iterations. AdaGrad also demonstrates similar convergence properties when integrated with a novel coordinate-wise variant of our adaptive batch size strategies. Our theoretical claims are supported by numerical experiments on various image classification tasks, highlighting the enhanced adaptability of progressive batching protocols in deep learning and the potential of such adaptive batch size strategies with adaptive gradient optimizers in large-scale model training.

Diffusion models are generative models that have recently demonstrated impressive performances in terms of sampling quality and density estimation in high dimensions. They rely on a forward continuous diffusion process and a backward continuous denoising process, which can be described by a time-dependent vector field and is used as a generative model. In the original formulation of the diffusion model, this vector field is assumed to be the score function (i.e. it is the gradient of the log-probability at a given time in the diffusion process). Curiously, on the practical side, most studies on diffusion models implement this vector field as a neural network function and do not constrain it be the gradient of some energy function (that is, most studies do not constrain the vector field to be conservative). Even though some studies investigated empirically whether such a constraint will lead to a performance gain, they lead to contradicting results and failed to provide analytical results. Here, we provide three analytical results regarding the extent of the modeling freedom of this vector field. {Firstly, we propose a novel decomposition of vector fields into a conservative component and an orthogonal component which satisfies a given (gauge) freedom. Secondly, from this orthogonal decomposition, we show that exact density estimation and exact sampling is achieved when the conservative component is exactly equals to the true score and therefore conservativity is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain exact density estimation and exact sampling. Finally, we show that when it comes to inferring local information of the data manifold, constraining the vector field to be conservative is desirable.

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel classifiers. With some mild assumptions on the conditional probability eta(x)=P(Y=1mid X=x), we derive an upper bound on the classification excess risk of a kernel classifier using recent advances in the theory of kernel regression. We also obtain a minimax lower bound for Sobolev spaces, which shows the optimality of the proposed classifier. Our theoretical results can be extended to the generalization error of overparameterized neural network classifiers. To make our theoretical results more applicable in realistic settings, we also propose a simple method to estimate the interpolation smoothness of 2eta(x)-1 and apply the method to real datasets.

Unsupervised domain translation (UDT) aims to find functions that convert samples from one domain (e.g., sketches) to another domain (e.g., photos) without changing the high-level semantic meaning (also referred to as ``content''). The translation functions are often sought by probability distribution matching of the transformed source domain and target domain. CycleGAN stands as arguably the most representative approach among this line of work. However, it was noticed in the literature that CycleGAN and variants could fail to identify the desired translation functions and produce content-misaligned translations. This limitation arises due to the presence of multiple translation functions -- referred to as ``measure-preserving automorphism" (MPA) -- in the solution space of the learning criteria. Despite awareness of such identifiability issues, solutions have remained elusive. This study delves into the core identifiability inquiry and introduces an MPA elimination theory. Our analysis shows that MPA is unlikely to exist, if multiple pairs of diverse cross-domain conditional distributions are matched by the learning function. Our theory leads to a UDT learner using distribution matching over auxiliary variable-induced subsets of the domains -- other than over the entire data domains as in the classical approaches. The proposed framework is the first to rigorously establish translation identifiability under reasonable UDT settings, to our best knowledge. Experiments corroborate with our theoretical claims.

We present Symphony, an E(3)-equivariant autoregressive generative model for 3D molecular geometries that iteratively builds a molecule from molecular fragments. Existing autoregressive models such as G-SchNet and G-SphereNet for molecules utilize rotationally invariant features to respect the 3D symmetries of molecules. In contrast, Symphony uses message-passing with higher-degree E(3)-equivariant features. This allows a novel representation of probability distributions via spherical harmonic signals to efficiently model the 3D geometry of molecules. We show that Symphony is able to accurately generate small molecules from the QM9 dataset, outperforming existing autoregressive models and approaching the performance of diffusion models.

With the growing popularity of Large Language Models (e.g. GitHub Copilot, ChatGPT, etc.) in software engineers' daily practices, it is important to ensure that the code generated by these tools is not only functionally correct but also free of vulnerabilities. Although LLMs can help developers to be more productive, prior empirical studies have shown that LLMs can generate insecure code. There are two contributing factors to the insecure code generation. First, existing datasets used to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) do not adequately represent genuine software engineering tasks sensitive to security. Instead, they are often based on competitive programming challenges or classroom-type coding tasks. In real-world applications, the code produced is integrated into larger codebases, introducing potential security risks. There's a clear absence of benchmarks that focus on evaluating the security of the generated code. Second, existing evaluation metrics primarily focus on the functional correctness of the generated code while ignoring security considerations. Metrics such as pass@k gauge the probability of obtaining the correct code in the top k suggestions. Other popular metrics like BLEU, CodeBLEU, ROUGE, and METEOR similarly emphasize functional accuracy, neglecting security implications. In light of these research gaps, in this paper, we described SALLM, a framework to benchmark LLMs' abilities to generate secure code systematically. This framework has three major components: a novel dataset of security-centric Python prompts, an evaluation environment to test the generated code, and novel metrics to evaluate the models' performance from the perspective of secure code generation.

This survey addresses the crucial issue of factuality in Large Language Models (LLMs). As LLMs find applications across diverse domains, the reliability and accuracy of their outputs become vital. We define the Factuality Issue as the probability of LLMs to produce content inconsistent with established facts. We first delve into the implications of these inaccuracies, highlighting the potential consequences and challenges posed by factual errors in LLM outputs. Subsequently, we analyze the mechanisms through which LLMs store and process facts, seeking the primary causes of factual errors. Our discussion then transitions to methodologies for evaluating LLM factuality, emphasizing key metrics, benchmarks, and studies. We further explore strategies for enhancing LLM factuality, including approaches tailored for specific domains. We focus two primary LLM configurations standalone LLMs and Retrieval-Augmented LLMs that utilizes external data, we detail their unique challenges and potential enhancements. Our survey offers a structured guide for researchers aiming to fortify the factual reliability of LLMs.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

3D human pose estimation has been a long-standing challenge in computer vision and graphics, where multi-view methods have significantly progressed but are limited by the tedious calibration processes. Existing multi-view methods are restricted to fixed camera pose and therefore lack generalization ability. This paper presents a novel Probabilistic Triangulation module that can be embedded in a calibrated 3D human pose estimation method, generalizing it to uncalibration scenes. The key idea is to use a probability distribution to model the camera pose and iteratively update the distribution from 2D features instead of using camera pose. Specifically, We maintain a camera pose distribution and then iteratively update this distribution by computing the posterior probability of the camera pose through Monte Carlo sampling. This way, the gradients can be directly back-propagated from the 3D pose estimation to the 2D heatmap, enabling end-to-end training. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and CMU Panoptic demonstrate that our method outperforms other uncalibration methods and achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art calibration methods. Thus, our method achieves a trade-off between estimation accuracy and generalizability. Our code is in https://github.com/bymaths/probabilistic_triangulation

Transformer based language models exhibit intelligent behaviors such as understanding natural language, recognizing patterns, acquiring knowledge, reasoning, planning, reflecting and using tools. This paper explores how their underlying mechanics give rise to intelligent behaviors. Towards that end, we propose framing Transformer dynamics as movement through embedding space. Examining Transformers through this perspective reveals key insights, establishing a Theory of Transformers: 1) Intelligent behaviours map to paths in Embedding Space which, the Transformer random-walks through during inferencing. 2) LM training learns a probability distribution over all possible paths. `Intelligence' is learnt by assigning higher probabilities to paths representing intelligent behaviors. No learning can take place in-context; context only narrows the subset of paths sampled during decoding. 5) The Transformer is a self-mapping composition function, folding a context sequence into a context-vector such that it's proximity to a token-vector reflects its co-occurrence and conditioned probability. Thus, the physical arrangement of vectors in Embedding Space determines path probabilities. 6) Context vectors are composed by aggregating features of the sequence's tokens via a process we call the encoding walk. Attention contributes a - potentially redundant - association-bias to this process. 7) This process is comprised of two principal operation types: filtering (data independent) and aggregation (data dependent). This generalization unifies Transformers with other sequence models. Building upon this foundation, we formalize a popular semantic interpretation of embeddings into a ``concept-space theory'' and find some evidence of it's validity.

Regret minimization in streaming multi-armed bandits (MABs) has been studied extensively in recent years. In the single-pass setting with K arms and T trials, a regret lower bound of Omega(T^{2/3}) has been proved for any algorithm with o(K) memory (Maiti et al. [NeurIPS'21]; Agarwal at al. [COLT'22]). On the other hand, however, the previous best regret upper bound is still O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}log^{1/3}(T)), which is achieved by the streaming implementation of the simple uniform exploration. The O(K^{1/3}log^{1/3}(T)) gap leaves the open question of the tight regret bound in the single-pass MABs with sublinear arm memory. In this paper, we answer this open problem and complete the picture of regret minimization in single-pass streaming MABs. We first improve the regret lower bound to Omega(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}) for algorithms with o(K) memory, which matches the uniform exploration regret up to a logarithm factor in T. We then show that the log^{1/3}(T) factor is not necessary, and we can achieve O(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}) regret by finding an varepsilon-best arm and committing to it in the rest of the trials. For regret minimization with high constant probability, we can apply the single-memory varepsilon-best arm algorithms in Jin et al. [ICML'21] to obtain the optimal bound. Furthermore, for the expected regret minimization, we design an algorithm with a single-arm memory that achieves O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}log(K)) regret, and an algorithm with O(log^{*}(n))-memory with the optimal O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}) regret following the varepsilon-best arm algorithm in Assadi and Wang [STOC'20]. We further tested the empirical performances of our algorithms. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithms consistently outperform the benchmark uniform exploration algorithm by a large margin, and on occasion, reduce the regret by up to 70%.

We study a K-armed bandit with delayed feedback and intermediate observations. We consider a model where intermediate observations have a form of a finite state, which is observed immediately after taking an action, whereas the loss is observed after an adversarially chosen delay. We show that the regime of the mapping of states to losses determines the complexity of the problem, irrespective of whether the mapping of actions to states is stochastic or adversarial. If the mapping of states to losses is adversarial, then the regret rate is of order (K+d)T (within log factors), where T is the time horizon and d is a fixed delay. This matches the regret rate of a K-armed bandit with delayed feedback and without intermediate observations, implying that intermediate observations are not helpful. However, if the mapping of states to losses is stochastic, we show that the regret grows at a rate of big(K+min{|mathcal{S|,d}big)T} (within log factors), implying that if the number |S| of states is smaller than the delay, then intermediate observations help. We also provide refined high-probability regret upper bounds for non-uniform delays, together with experimental validation of our algorithms.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

Neural rendering of implicit surfaces performs well in 3D vision applications. However, it requires dense input views as supervision. When only sparse input images are available, output quality drops significantly due to the shape-radiance ambiguity problem. We note that this ambiguity can be constrained when a 3D point is visible in multiple views, as is the case in multi-view stereo (MVS). We thus propose to regularize neural rendering optimization with an MVS solution. The use of an MVS probability volume and a generalized cross entropy loss leads to a noise-tolerant optimization process. In addition, neural rendering provides global consistency constraints that guide the MVS depth hypothesis sampling and thus improves MVS performance. Given only three sparse input views, experiments show that our method not only outperforms generic neural rendering models by a large margin but also significantly increases the reconstruction quality of MVS models. Project page: https://hao-yu-wu.github.io/s-volsdf/.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) learn a target probability distribution by optimizing a generator and a discriminator with minimax objectives. This paper addresses the question of whether such optimization actually provides the generator with gradients that make its distribution close to the target distribution. We derive metrizable conditions, sufficient conditions for the discriminator to serve as the distance between the distributions by connecting the GAN formulation with the concept of sliced optimal transport. Furthermore, by leveraging these theoretical results, we propose a novel GAN training scheme, called slicing adversarial network (SAN). With only simple modifications, a broad class of existing GANs can be converted to SANs. Experiments on synthetic and image datasets support our theoretical results and the SAN's effectiveness as compared to usual GANs. Furthermore, we also apply SAN to StyleGAN-XL, which leads to state-of-the-art FID score amongst GANs for class conditional generation on ImageNet 256times256.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

Language models (LMs) compute the probability of a text by sequentially computing a representation of an already-seen context and using this representation to predict the next word. Currently, most LMs calculate these representations through a neural network consuming the immediate previous context. However recently, retrieval-augmented LMs have shown to improve over standard neural LMs, by accessing information retrieved from a large datastore, in addition to their standard, parametric, next-word prediction. In this paper, we set out to understand why retrieval-augmented language models, and specifically why k-nearest neighbor language models (kNN-LMs) perform better than standard parametric LMs, even when the k-nearest neighbor component retrieves examples from the same training set that the LM was originally trained on. To this end, we perform a careful analysis of the various dimensions over which kNN-LM diverges from standard LMs, and investigate these dimensions one by one. Empirically, we identify three main reasons why kNN-LM performs better than standard LMs: using a different input representation for predicting the next tokens, approximate kNN search, and the importance of softmax temperature for the kNN distribution. Further, we incorporate these insights into the model architecture or the training procedure of the standard parametric LM, improving its results without the need for an explicit retrieval component. The code is available at https://github.com/frankxu2004/knnlm-why.

We propose nabla-RANSAC, a generalized differentiable RANSAC that allows learning the entire randomized robust estimation pipeline. The proposed approach enables the use of relaxation techniques for estimating the gradients in the sampling distribution, which are then propagated through a differentiable solver. The trainable quality function marginalizes over the scores from all the models estimated within nabla-RANSAC to guide the network learning accurate and useful inlier probabilities or to train feature detection and matching networks. Our method directly maximizes the probability of drawing a good hypothesis, allowing us to learn better sampling distribution. We test nabla-RANSAC on a number of real-world scenarios on fundamental and essential matrix estimation, both outdoors and indoors, with handcrafted and learning-based features. It is superior to the state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy while running at a similar speed to its less accurate alternatives. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/weitong8591/differentiable_ransac.

Image-based 3D reconstruction has increasingly stunning results over the past few years with the latest improvements in computer vision and graphics. Geometry and topology are two fundamental concepts when dealing with 3D mesh structures. But the latest often remains a side issue in the 3D mesh-based reconstruction literature. Indeed, performing per-vertex elementary displacements over a 3D sphere mesh only impacts its geometry and leaves the topological structure unchanged and fixed. Whereas few attempts propose to update the geometry and the topology, all need to lean on costly 3D ground-truth to determine the faces/edges to prune. We present in this work a method that aims to refine the topology of any 3D mesh through a face-pruning strategy that extensively relies upon 2D alpha masks and camera pose information. Our solution leverages a differentiable renderer that renders each face as a 2D soft map. Its pixel intensity reflects the probability of being covered during the rendering process by such a face. Based on the 2D soft-masks available, our method is thus able to quickly highlight all the incorrectly rendered faces for a given viewpoint. Because our module is agnostic to the network that produces the 3D mesh, it can be easily plugged into any self-supervised image-based (either synthetic or natural) 3D reconstruction pipeline to get complex meshes with a non-spherical topology.

We propose a new differentiable probabilistic model over DAGs (DP-DAG). DP-DAG allows fast and differentiable DAG sampling suited to continuous optimization. To this end, DP-DAG samples a DAG by successively (1) sampling a linear ordering of the node and (2) sampling edges consistent with the sampled linear ordering. We further propose VI-DP-DAG, a new method for DAG learning from observational data which combines DP-DAG with variational inference. Hence,VI-DP-DAG approximates the posterior probability over DAG edges given the observed data. VI-DP-DAG is guaranteed to output a valid DAG at any time during training and does not require any complex augmented Lagrangian optimization scheme in contrast to existing differentiable DAG learning approaches. In our extensive experiments, we compare VI-DP-DAG to other differentiable DAG learning baselines on synthetic and real datasets. VI-DP-DAG significantly improves DAG structure and causal mechanism learning while training faster than competitors.

Click-through rate prediction is one of the core tasks in commercial recommender systems. It aims to predict the probability of a user clicking a particular item given user and item features. As feature interactions bring in non-linearity, they are widely adopted to improve the performance of CTR prediction models. Therefore, effectively modelling feature interactions has attracted much attention in both the research and industry field. The current approaches can generally be categorized into three classes: (1) na\"ive methods, which do not model feature interactions and only use original features; (2) memorized methods, which memorize feature interactions by explicitly viewing them as new features and assigning trainable embeddings; (3) factorized methods, which learn latent vectors for original features and implicitly model feature interactions through factorization functions. Studies have shown that modelling feature interactions by one of these methods alone are suboptimal due to the unique characteristics of different feature interactions. To address this issue, we first propose a general framework called OptInter which finds the most suitable modelling method for each feature interaction. Different state-of-the-art deep CTR models can be viewed as instances of OptInter. To realize the functionality of OptInter, we also introduce a learning algorithm that automatically searches for the optimal modelling method. We conduct extensive experiments on four large datasets. Our experiments show that OptInter improves the best performed state-of-the-art baseline deep CTR models by up to 2.21%. Compared to the memorized method, which also outperforms baselines, we reduce up to 91% parameters. In addition, we conduct several ablation studies to investigate the influence of different components of OptInter. Finally, we provide interpretable discussions on the results of OptInter.

Violence rates however have been brought down about 57% during the span of the past 4 decades yet it doesn't change the way that the demonstration of violence actually happens, unseen by the law. Violence can be mass controlled sometimes by higher authorities, however, to hold everything in line one must "Microgovern" over each movement occurring in every road of each square. To address the butterfly effects impact in our setting, I made a unique model and a theorized system to handle the issue utilizing deep learning. The model takes the input of the CCTV video feeds and after drawing inference, recognizes if a violent movement is going on. And hypothesized architecture aims towards probability-driven computation of video feeds and reduces overhead from naively computing for every CCTV video feeds.

We present our transducer model on Librispeech. We study variants to include an external language model (LM) with shallow fusion and subtract an estimated internal LM. This is justified by a Bayesian interpretation where the transducer model prior is given by the estimated internal LM. The subtraction of the internal LM gives us over 14% relative improvement over normal shallow fusion. Our transducer has a separate probability distribution for the non-blank labels which allows for easier combination with the external LM, and easier estimation of the internal LM. We additionally take care of including the end-of-sentence (EOS) probability of the external LM in the last blank probability which further improves the performance. All our code and setups are published.

This paper proposes a simple self-supervised approach for learning a representation for visual correspondence from raw video. We cast correspondence as prediction of links in a space-time graph constructed from video. In this graph, the nodes are patches sampled from each frame, and nodes adjacent in time can share a directed edge. We learn a representation in which pairwise similarity defines transition probability of a random walk, so that long-range correspondence is computed as a walk along the graph. We optimize the representation to place high probability along paths of similarity. Targets for learning are formed without supervision, by cycle-consistency: the objective is to maximize the likelihood of returning to the initial node when walking along a graph constructed from a palindrome of frames. Thus, a single path-level constraint implicitly supervises chains of intermediate comparisons. When used as a similarity metric without adaptation, the learned representation outperforms the self-supervised state-of-the-art on label propagation tasks involving objects, semantic parts, and pose. Moreover, we demonstrate that a technique we call edge dropout, as well as self-supervised adaptation at test-time, further improve transfer for object-centric correspondence.

This paper reformulates a classical result in probability theory from the 1930s in modern categorical terms: de Finetti's representation theorem is redescribed as limit statement for a chain of finite spaces in the Kleisli category of the Giry monad. This new limit is used to identify among exchangeable coalgebras the final one.

We investigate the sets of joint probability distributions that maximize the average multi-information over a collection of margins. These functionals serve as proxies for maximizing the multi-information of a set of variables or the mutual information of two subsets of variables, at a lower computation and estimation complexity. We describe the maximizers and their relations to the maximizers of the multi-information and the mutual information.

A normalizing flow models a complex probability density as an invertible transformation of a simple base density. Flows based on either coupling or autoregressive transforms both offer exact density evaluation and sampling, but rely on the parameterization of an easily invertible elementwise transformation, whose choice determines the flexibility of these models. Building upon recent work, we propose a fully-differentiable module based on monotonic rational-quadratic splines, which enhances the flexibility of both coupling and autoregressive transforms while retaining analytic invertibility. We demonstrate that neural spline flows improve density estimation, variational inference, and generative modeling of images.

Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only Lipschitz conditions rather than strict architectural constraints are needed for enforcing invertibility. However, prior work trained invertible residual networks for density estimation by relying on biased log-density estimates whose bias increased with the network's expressiveness. We give a tractable unbiased estimate of the log density using a "Russian roulette" estimator, and reduce the memory required during training by using an alternative infinite series for the gradient. Furthermore, we improve invertible residual blocks by proposing the use of activation functions that avoid derivative saturation and generalizing the Lipschitz condition to induced mixed norms. The resulting approach, called Residual Flows, achieves state-of-the-art performance on density estimation amongst flow-based models, and outperforms networks that use coupling blocks at joint generative and discriminative modeling.

As the number of seismic sensors grows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for analysts to pick seismic phases manually and comprehensively, yet such efforts are fundamental to earthquake monitoring. Despite years of improvements in automatic phase picking, it is difficult to match the performance of experienced analysts. A more subtle issue is that different seismic analysts may pick phases differently, which can introduce bias into earthquake locations. We present a deep-neural-network-based arrival-time picking method called "PhaseNet" that picks the arrival times of both P and S waves. Deep neural networks have recently made rapid progress in feature learning, and with sufficient training, have achieved super-human performance in many applications. PhaseNet uses three-component seismic waveforms as input and generates probability distributions of P arrivals, S arrivals, and noise as output. We engineer PhaseNet such that peaks in probability provide accurate arrival times for both P and S waves, and have the potential to increase the number of S-wave observations dramatically over what is currently available. This will enable both improved locations and improved shear wave velocity models. PhaseNet is trained on the prodigious available data set provided by analyst-labeled P and S arrival times from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The dataset we use contains more than seven million waveform samples extracted from over thirty years of earthquake recordings. We demonstrate that PhaseNet achieves much higher picking accuracy and recall rate than existing methods.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Given alphain(0,1] and pin[1,+infty], we define the space DM^{alpha,p}(mathbb R^n) of L^p vector fields whose alpha-divergence is a finite Radon measure, extending the theory of divergence-measure vector fields to the distributional fractional setting. Our main results concern the absolute continuity properties of the alpha-divergence-measure with respect to the Hausdorff measure and fractional analogues of the Leibniz rule and the Gauss-Green formula. The sharpness of our results is discussed via some explicit examples.

Despite considerable advancements with deep neural language models, the enigma of neural text degeneration persists when these models are tested as text generators. The counter-intuitive empirical observation is that even though the use of likelihood as training objective leads to high quality models for a broad range of language understanding tasks, using likelihood as a decoding objective leads to text that is bland and strangely repetitive. In this paper, we reveal surprising distributional differences between human text and machine text. In addition, we find that decoding strategies alone can dramatically effect the quality of machine text, even when generated from exactly the same neural language model. Our findings motivate Nucleus Sampling, a simple but effective method to draw the best out of neural generation. By sampling text from the dynamic nucleus of the probability distribution, which allows for diversity while effectively truncating the less reliable tail of the distribution, the resulting text better demonstrates the quality of human text, yielding enhanced diversity without sacrificing fluency and coherence.