Daily Papers

The development of deep learning software libraries enabled significant progress in the field by allowing users to focus on modeling, while letting the library to take care of the tedious and time-consuming task of optimizing execution for modern hardware accelerators. However, this has benefited only particular types of deep learning models, such as Transformers, whose primitives map easily to the vectorized computation. The models that explicitly account for structured objects, such as trees and segmentations, did not benefit equally because they require custom algorithms that are difficult to implement in a vectorized form. SynJax directly addresses this problem by providing an efficient vectorized implementation of inference algorithms for structured distributions covering alignment, tagging, segmentation, constituency trees and spanning trees. With SynJax we can build large-scale differentiable models that explicitly model structure in the data. The code is available at https://github.com/deepmind/synjax.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

As the quality of large language models has improved, there has been increased interest in using them to model non-linguistic tokens. For example, the Decision Transformer recasts agentic decision making as a sequence modeling problem, using a decoder-only LLM to model the distribution over the discrete action space for an Atari agent. However, when adapting LLMs to non-linguistic domains, it remains unclear if softmax over discrete bins captures the continuous structure of the tokens and the potentially complex distributions needed for high quality token generation. We introduce a neural network layer, constructed using Fourier series, which we can easily substitute for any linear layer if we want the outputs to have a more continuous structure. We perform extensive analysis on synthetic datasets, as well as on large-scale decision making and time series forecasting tasks. We also provide theoretical evidence that this layer can better learn signal from data while ignoring high-frequency noise. All of our results support the effectiveness of our proposed Fourier head in scenarios where the underlying data distribution has a natural continuous structure. For example, the Fourier head improves a Decision Transformer agent's returns by 46% on the Atari Seaquest game, and increases a state-of-the-art times series foundation model's forecasting performance by 3.5% across 20 benchmarks unseen during training.

Large language models are susceptible to jailbreak attacks, which can result in the generation of harmful content. While prior defenses mitigate these risks by perturbing or inspecting inputs, they ignore competing objectives, the underlying cause of alignment failures. In this paper, we propose Alignment-Enhanced Decoding (AED), a novel defense that employs adaptive decoding to address the root causes of jailbreak issues. We first define the Competitive Index to quantify alignment failures and utilize feedback from self-evaluation to compute post-alignment logits. Then, AED adaptively combines AED and post-alignment logits with the original logits to obtain harmless and helpful distributions. Consequently, our method enhances safety alignment while maintaining helpfulness. We conduct experiments across five models and four common jailbreaks, with the results validating the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/GIGABaozi/AED.git.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

Unsupervised domain translation (UDT) aims to find functions that convert samples from one domain (e.g., sketches) to another domain (e.g., photos) without changing the high-level semantic meaning (also referred to as ``content''). The translation functions are often sought by probability distribution matching of the transformed source domain and target domain. CycleGAN stands as arguably the most representative approach among this line of work. However, it was noticed in the literature that CycleGAN and variants could fail to identify the desired translation functions and produce content-misaligned translations. This limitation arises due to the presence of multiple translation functions -- referred to as ``measure-preserving automorphism" (MPA) -- in the solution space of the learning criteria. Despite awareness of such identifiability issues, solutions have remained elusive. This study delves into the core identifiability inquiry and introduces an MPA elimination theory. Our analysis shows that MPA is unlikely to exist, if multiple pairs of diverse cross-domain conditional distributions are matched by the learning function. Our theory leads to a UDT learner using distribution matching over auxiliary variable-induced subsets of the domains -- other than over the entire data domains as in the classical approaches. The proposed framework is the first to rigorously establish translation identifiability under reasonable UDT settings, to our best knowledge. Experiments corroborate with our theoretical claims.

We present IterMVS, a new data-driven method for high-resolution multi-view stereo. We propose a novel GRU-based estimator that encodes pixel-wise probability distributions of depth in its hidden state. Ingesting multi-scale matching information, our model refines these distributions over multiple iterations and infers depth and confidence. To extract the depth maps, we combine traditional classification and regression in a novel manner. We verify the efficiency and effectiveness of our method on DTU, Tanks&Temples and ETH3D. While being the most efficient method in both memory and run-time, our model achieves competitive performance on DTU and better generalization ability on Tanks&Temples as well as ETH3D than most state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/FangjinhuaWang/IterMVS.

Shadow tomography for quantum states provides a sample efficient approach for predicting the properties of quantum systems when the properties are restricted to expectation values of 2-outcome POVMs. However, these shadow tomography procedures yield poor bounds if there are more than 2 outcomes per measurement. In this paper, we consider a general problem of learning properties from unknown quantum states: given an unknown d-dimensional quantum state rho and M unknown quantum measurements M_1,...,M_M with Kgeq 2 outcomes, estimating the probability distribution for applying M_i on rho to within total variation distance epsilon. Compared to the special case when K=2, we need to learn unknown distributions instead of values. We develop an online shadow tomography procedure that solves this problem with high success probability requiring O(Klog^2Mlog d/epsilon^4) copies of rho. We further prove an information-theoretic lower bound that at least Omega(min{d^2,K+log M}/epsilon^2) copies of rho are required to solve this problem with high success probability. Our shadow tomography procedure requires sample complexity with only logarithmic dependence on M and d and is sample-optimal for the dependence on K.

It is typically understood that the training of modern neural networks is a process of fitting the probability distribution of desired output. However, recent paradoxical observations in a number of language generation tasks let one wonder if this canonical probability-based explanation can really account for the empirical success of deep learning. To resolve this issue, we propose an alternative utility-based explanation to the standard supervised learning procedure in deep learning. The basic idea is to interpret the learned neural network not as a probability model but as an ordinal utility function that encodes the preference revealed in training data. In this perspective, training of the neural network corresponds to a utility learning process. Specifically, we show that for all neural networks with softmax outputs, the SGD learning dynamic of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can be seen as an iteration process that optimizes the neural network toward an optimal utility function. This utility-based interpretation can explain several otherwise-paradoxical observations about the neural networks thus trained. Moreover, our utility-based theory also entails an equation that can transform the learned utility values back to a new kind of probability estimation with which probability-compatible decision rules enjoy dramatic (double-digits) performance improvements. These evidences collectively reveal a phenomenon of utility-probability duality in terms of what modern neural networks are (truly) modeling: We thought they are one thing (probabilities), until the unexplainable showed up; changing mindset and treating them as another thing (utility values) largely reconcile the theory, despite remaining subtleties regarding its original (probabilistic) identity.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

It is believed that in knowledge distillation (KD), the role of the teacher is to provide an estimate for the unknown Bayes conditional probability distribution (BCPD) to be used in the student training process. Conventionally, this estimate is obtained by training the teacher using maximum log-likelihood (MLL) method. To improve this estimate for KD, in this paper we introduce the concept of conditional mutual information (CMI) into the estimation of BCPD and propose a novel estimator called the maximum CMI (MCMI) method. Specifically, in MCMI estimation, both the log-likelihood and CMI of the teacher are simultaneously maximized when the teacher is trained. Through Eigen-CAM, it is further shown that maximizing the teacher's CMI value allows the teacher to capture more contextual information in an image cluster. Via conducting a thorough set of experiments, we show that by employing a teacher trained via MCMI estimation rather than one trained via MLL estimation in various state-of-the-art KD frameworks, the student's classification accuracy consistently increases, with the gain of up to 3.32\%. This suggests that the teacher's BCPD estimate provided by MCMI method is more accurate than that provided by MLL method. In addition, we show that such improvements in the student's accuracy are more drastic in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, the student's accuracy increases with the gain of up to 5.72\% when 5\% of the training samples are available to the student (few-shot), and increases from 0\% to as high as 84\% for an omitted class (zero-shot). The code is available at https://github.com/iclr2024mcmi/ICLRMCMI.

Reinforcement learning (RL) allows an agent interacting sequentially with an environment to maximize its long-term expected return. In the distributional RL (DistrRL) paradigm, the agent goes beyond the limit of the expected value, to capture the underlying probability distribution of the return across all time steps. The set of DistrRL algorithms has led to improved empirical performance. Nevertheless, the theory of DistrRL is still not fully understood, especially in the control case. In this paper, we present the simpler one-step distributional reinforcement learning (OS-DistrRL) framework encompassing only the randomness induced by the one-step dynamics of the environment. Contrary to DistrRL, we show that our approach comes with a unified theory for both policy evaluation and control. Indeed, we propose two OS-DistrRL algorithms for which we provide an almost sure convergence analysis. The proposed approach compares favorably with categorical DistrRL on various environments.

We introduce D-FINE, a powerful real-time object detector that achieves outstanding localization precision by redefining the bounding box regression task in DETR models. D-FINE comprises two key components: Fine-grained Distribution Refinement (FDR) and Global Optimal Localization Self-Distillation (GO-LSD). FDR transforms the regression process from predicting fixed coordinates to iteratively refining probability distributions, providing a fine-grained intermediate representation that significantly enhances localization accuracy. GO-LSD is a bidirectional optimization strategy that transfers localization knowledge from refined distributions to shallower layers through self-distillation, while also simplifying the residual prediction tasks for deeper layers. Additionally, D-FINE incorporates lightweight optimizations in computationally intensive modules and operations, achieving a better balance between speed and accuracy. Specifically, D-FINE-L / X achieves 54.0% / 55.8% AP on the COCO dataset at 124 / 78 FPS on an NVIDIA T4 GPU. When pretrained on Objects365, D-FINE-L / X attains 57.1% / 59.3% AP, surpassing all existing real-time detectors. Furthermore, our method significantly enhances the performance of a wide range of DETR models by up to 5.3% AP with negligible extra parameters and training costs. Our code and pretrained models: https://github.com/Peterande/D-FINE.

In this paper, we extend mean-field Langevin dynamics to minimax optimization over probability distributions for the first time with symmetric and provably convergent updates. We propose mean-field Langevin averaged gradient (MFL-AG), a single-loop algorithm that implements gradient descent ascent in the distribution spaces with a novel weighted averaging, and establish average-iterate convergence to the mixed Nash equilibrium. We also study both time and particle discretization regimes and prove a new uniform-in-time propagation of chaos result which accounts for the dependency of the particle interactions on all previous distributions. Furthermore, we propose mean-field Langevin anchored best response (MFL-ABR), a symmetric double-loop algorithm based on best response dynamics with linear last-iterate convergence. Finally, we study applications to zero-sum Markov games and conduct simulations demonstrating long-term optimality.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

This paper proposes a pre-trained neural network for handling event camera data. Our model is a self-supervised learning framework, and uses paired event camera data and natural RGB images for training. Our method contains three modules connected in a sequence: i) a family of event data augmentations, generating meaningful event images for self-supervised training; ii) a conditional masking strategy to sample informative event patches from event images, encouraging our model to capture the spatial layout of a scene and accelerating training; iii) a contrastive learning approach, enforcing the similarity of embeddings between matching event images, and between paired event and RGB images. An embedding projection loss is proposed to avoid the model collapse when enforcing the event image embedding similarities. A probability distribution alignment loss is proposed to encourage the event image to be consistent with its paired RGB image in the feature space. Transfer learning performance on downstream tasks shows the superiority of our method over state-of-the-art methods. For example, we achieve top-1 accuracy at 64.83% on the N-ImageNet dataset.

Estimating probability distribution is one of the core issues in the NLP field. However, in both deep learning (DL) and pre-DL eras, unlike the vast applications of linear-chain CRF in sequence labeling tasks, very few works have applied tree-structure CRF to constituency parsing, mainly due to the complexity and inefficiency of the inside-outside algorithm. This work presents a fast and accurate neural CRF constituency parser. The key idea is to batchify the inside algorithm for loss computation by direct large tensor operations on GPU, and meanwhile avoid the outside algorithm for gradient computation via efficient back-propagation. We also propose a simple two-stage bracketing-then-labeling parsing approach to improve efficiency further. To improve the parsing performance, inspired by recent progress in dependency parsing, we introduce a new scoring architecture based on boundary representation and biaffine attention, and a beneficial dropout strategy. Experiments on PTB, CTB5.1, and CTB7 show that our two-stage CRF parser achieves new state-of-the-art performance on both settings of w/o and w/ BERT, and can parse over 1,000 sentences per second. We release our code at https://github.com/yzhangcs/crfpar.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are used to model environments where the full state cannot be perceived by an agent. As such the agent needs to reason taking into account the past observations and actions. However, simply remembering the full history is generally intractable due to the exponential growth in the history space. Maintaining a probability distribution that models the belief over what the true state is can be used as a sufficient statistic of the history, but its computation requires access to the model of the environment and is often intractable. While SOTA algorithms use Recurrent Neural Networks to compress the observation-action history aiming to learn a sufficient statistic, they lack guarantees of success and can lead to sub-optimal policies. To overcome this, we propose the Wasserstein Belief Updater, an RL algorithm that learns a latent model of the POMDP and an approximation of the belief update. Our approach comes with theoretical guarantees on the quality of our approximation ensuring that our outputted beliefs allow for learning the optimal value function.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Hallucinations in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) where generated responses fail to accurately reflect the given image pose a significant challenge to their reliability. To address this, we introduce ConVis, a novel training-free contrastive decoding method. ConVis leverages a text-to-image (T2I) generation model to semantically reconstruct the given image from hallucinated captions. By comparing the contrasting probability distributions produced by the original and reconstructed images, ConVis enables MLLMs to capture visual contrastive signals that penalize hallucination generation. Notably, this method operates purely within the decoding process, eliminating the need for additional data or model updates. Our extensive experiments on five popular benchmarks demonstrate that ConVis effectively reduces hallucinations across various MLLMs, highlighting its potential to enhance model reliability.

Optimal transport (OT) compares probability distributions by computing a meaningful alignment between their samples. CO-optimal transport (COOT) takes this comparison further by inferring an alignment between features as well. While this approach leads to better alignments and generalizes both OT and Gromov-Wasserstein distances, we provide a theoretical result showing that it is sensitive to outliers that are omnipresent in real-world data. This prompts us to propose unbalanced COOT for which we provably show its robustness to noise in the compared datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such result for OT methods in incomparable spaces. With this result in hand, we provide empirical evidence of this robustness for the challenging tasks of heterogeneous domain adaptation with and without varying proportions of classes and simultaneous alignment of samples and features across single-cell measurements.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

Normalizing flows can transform a simple prior probability distribution into a more complex target distribution. Here, we evaluate the ability and efficiency of generative machine learning methods to sample the Boltzmann distribution of an atomistic model for glass-forming liquids. This is a notoriously difficult task, as it amounts to ergodically exploring the complex free energy landscape of a disordered and frustrated many-body system. We optimize a normalizing flow model to successfully transform high-temperature configurations of a dense liquid into low-temperature ones, near the glass transition. We perform a detailed comparative analysis with established enhanced sampling techniques developed in the physics literature to assess and rank the performance of normalizing flows against state-of-the-art algorithms. We demonstrate that machine learning methods are very promising, showing a large speedup over conventional molecular dynamics. Normalizing flows show performances comparable to parallel tempering and population annealing, while still falling far behind the swap Monte Carlo algorithm. Our study highlights the potential of generative machine learning models in scientific computing for complex systems, but also points to some of its current limitations and the need for further improvement.

3D human pose estimation has been a long-standing challenge in computer vision and graphics, where multi-view methods have significantly progressed but are limited by the tedious calibration processes. Existing multi-view methods are restricted to fixed camera pose and therefore lack generalization ability. This paper presents a novel Probabilistic Triangulation module that can be embedded in a calibrated 3D human pose estimation method, generalizing it to uncalibration scenes. The key idea is to use a probability distribution to model the camera pose and iteratively update the distribution from 2D features instead of using camera pose. Specifically, We maintain a camera pose distribution and then iteratively update this distribution by computing the posterior probability of the camera pose through Monte Carlo sampling. This way, the gradients can be directly back-propagated from the 3D pose estimation to the 2D heatmap, enabling end-to-end training. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and CMU Panoptic demonstrate that our method outperforms other uncalibration methods and achieves comparable results with state-of-the-art calibration methods. Thus, our method achieves a trade-off between estimation accuracy and generalizability. Our code is in https://github.com/bymaths/probabilistic_triangulation

Transformer based language models exhibit intelligent behaviors such as understanding natural language, recognizing patterns, acquiring knowledge, reasoning, planning, reflecting and using tools. This paper explores how their underlying mechanics give rise to intelligent behaviors. Towards that end, we propose framing Transformer dynamics as movement through embedding space. Examining Transformers through this perspective reveals key insights, establishing a Theory of Transformers: 1) Intelligent behaviours map to paths in Embedding Space which, the Transformer random-walks through during inferencing. 2) LM training learns a probability distribution over all possible paths. `Intelligence' is learnt by assigning higher probabilities to paths representing intelligent behaviors. No learning can take place in-context; context only narrows the subset of paths sampled during decoding. 5) The Transformer is a self-mapping composition function, folding a context sequence into a context-vector such that it's proximity to a token-vector reflects its co-occurrence and conditioned probability. Thus, the physical arrangement of vectors in Embedding Space determines path probabilities. 6) Context vectors are composed by aggregating features of the sequence's tokens via a process we call the encoding walk. Attention contributes a - potentially redundant - association-bias to this process. 7) This process is comprised of two principal operation types: filtering (data independent) and aggregation (data dependent). This generalization unifies Transformers with other sequence models. Building upon this foundation, we formalize a popular semantic interpretation of embeddings into a ``concept-space theory'' and find some evidence of it's validity.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) learn a target probability distribution by optimizing a generator and a discriminator with minimax objectives. This paper addresses the question of whether such optimization actually provides the generator with gradients that make its distribution close to the target distribution. We derive metrizable conditions, sufficient conditions for the discriminator to serve as the distance between the distributions by connecting the GAN formulation with the concept of sliced optimal transport. Furthermore, by leveraging these theoretical results, we propose a novel GAN training scheme, called slicing adversarial network (SAN). With only simple modifications, a broad class of existing GANs can be converted to SANs. Experiments on synthetic and image datasets support our theoretical results and the SAN's effectiveness as compared to usual GANs. Furthermore, we also apply SAN to StyleGAN-XL, which leads to state-of-the-art FID score amongst GANs for class conditional generation on ImageNet 256times256.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

We present our transducer model on Librispeech. We study variants to include an external language model (LM) with shallow fusion and subtract an estimated internal LM. This is justified by a Bayesian interpretation where the transducer model prior is given by the estimated internal LM. The subtraction of the internal LM gives us over 14% relative improvement over normal shallow fusion. Our transducer has a separate probability distribution for the non-blank labels which allows for easier combination with the external LM, and easier estimation of the internal LM. We additionally take care of including the end-of-sentence (EOS) probability of the external LM in the last blank probability which further improves the performance. All our code and setups are published.

Multi-view consistency remains a challenge for image diffusion models. Even within the Text-to-Texture problem, where perfect geometric correspondences are known a priori, many methods fail to yield aligned predictions across views, necessitating non-trivial fusion methods to incorporate the results onto the original mesh. We explore this issue for a Collaborative Control workflow specifically in PBR Text-to-Texture. Collaborative Control directly models PBR image probability distributions, including normal bump maps; to our knowledge, the only diffusion model to directly output full PBR stacks. We discuss the design decisions involved in making this model multi-view consistent, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in ablation studies, as well as practical applications.

Generative models are a class of machine learning models that aim to learn the underlying probability distribution of data. Unlike discriminative models, generative models focus on capturing the data's inherent structure, allowing them to generate new samples that resemble the original data. To fully exploit the potential of modeling probability distributions using quantum physics, a quantum-inspired generative model known as the Born machines have shown great advancements in learning classical and quantum data over matrix product state(MPS) framework. The Born machines support tractable log-likelihood, autoregressive and mask sampling, and have shown outstanding performance in various unsupervised learning tasks. However, much of the current research has been centered on improving the expressive power of MPS, predominantly embedding each token directly by a corresponding tensor index. In this study, we generalize the embedding method into trainable quantum measurement operators that can be simultaneously honed with MPS. Our study indicated that combined with trainable embedding, Born machines can exhibit better performance and learn deeper correlations from the dataset.

We present Symphony, an E(3)-equivariant autoregressive generative model for 3D molecular geometries that iteratively builds a molecule from molecular fragments. Existing autoregressive models such as G-SchNet and G-SphereNet for molecules utilize rotationally invariant features to respect the 3D symmetries of molecules. In contrast, Symphony uses message-passing with higher-degree E(3)-equivariant features. This allows a novel representation of probability distributions via spherical harmonic signals to efficiently model the 3D geometry of molecules. We show that Symphony is able to accurately generate small molecules from the QM9 dataset, outperforming existing autoregressive models and approaching the performance of diffusion models.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

We investigate the sets of joint probability distributions that maximize the average multi-information over a collection of margins. These functionals serve as proxies for maximizing the multi-information of a set of variables or the mutual information of two subsets of variables, at a lower computation and estimation complexity. We describe the maximizers and their relations to the maximizers of the multi-information and the mutual information.

Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only Lipschitz conditions rather than strict architectural constraints are needed for enforcing invertibility. However, prior work trained invertible residual networks for density estimation by relying on biased log-density estimates whose bias increased with the network's expressiveness. We give a tractable unbiased estimate of the log density using a "Russian roulette" estimator, and reduce the memory required during training by using an alternative infinite series for the gradient. Furthermore, we improve invertible residual blocks by proposing the use of activation functions that avoid derivative saturation and generalizing the Lipschitz condition to induced mixed norms. The resulting approach, called Residual Flows, achieves state-of-the-art performance on density estimation amongst flow-based models, and outperforms networks that use coupling blocks at joint generative and discriminative modeling.

Generative Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 are capable of generating highly fluent responses to a wide variety of user prompts. However, LLMs are known to hallucinate facts and make non-factual statements which can undermine trust in their output. Existing fact-checking approaches either require access to token-level output probability distribution (which may not be available for systems such as ChatGPT) or external databases that are interfaced via separate, often complex, modules. In this work, we propose "SelfCheckGPT", a simple sampling-based approach that can be used to fact-check black-box models in a zero-resource fashion, i.e. without an external database. SelfCheckGPT leverages the simple idea that if a LLM has knowledge of a given concept, sampled responses are likely to be similar and contain consistent facts. However, for hallucinated facts, stochastically sampled responses are likely to diverge and contradict one another. We investigate this approach by using GPT-3 to generate passages about individuals from the WikiBio dataset, and manually annotate the factuality of the generated passages. We demonstrate that SelfCheckGPT can: i) detect non-factual and factual sentences; and ii) rank passages in terms of factuality. We compare our approach to several existing baselines and show that in sentence hallucination detection, our approach has AUC-PR scores comparable to grey-box methods, while SelfCheckGPT is best at passage factuality assessment.

Despite considerable advancements with deep neural language models, the enigma of neural text degeneration persists when these models are tested as text generators. The counter-intuitive empirical observation is that even though the use of likelihood as training objective leads to high quality models for a broad range of language understanding tasks, using likelihood as a decoding objective leads to text that is bland and strangely repetitive. In this paper, we reveal surprising distributional differences between human text and machine text. In addition, we find that decoding strategies alone can dramatically effect the quality of machine text, even when generated from exactly the same neural language model. Our findings motivate Nucleus Sampling, a simple but effective method to draw the best out of neural generation. By sampling text from the dynamic nucleus of the probability distribution, which allows for diversity while effectively truncating the less reliable tail of the distribution, the resulting text better demonstrates the quality of human text, yielding enhanced diversity without sacrificing fluency and coherence.

This paper explores the scenarios under which an attacker can claim that 'Noise and access to the softmax layer of the model is all you need' to steal the weights of a convolutional neural network whose architecture is already known. We were able to achieve 96% test accuracy using the stolen MNIST model and 82% accuracy using the stolen KMNIST model learned using only i.i.d. Bernoulli noise inputs. We posit that this theft-susceptibility of the weights is indicative of the complexity of the dataset and propose a new metric that captures the same. The goal of this dissemination is to not just showcase how far knowing the architecture can take you in terms of model stealing, but to also draw attention to this rather idiosyncratic weight learnability aspects of CNNs spurred by i.i.d. noise input. We also disseminate some initial results obtained with using the Ising probability distribution in lieu of the i.i.d. Bernoulli distribution.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Recent advancements in Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) have revolutionized how machines understand and generate textual responses based on visual inputs. Despite their impressive capabilities, they often produce "hallucinatory" outputs that do not accurately reflect the visual information, posing challenges in reliability and trustworthiness. Current methods such as contrastive decoding have made strides in addressing these issues by contrasting the original probability distribution of generated tokens with distorted counterparts; yet, generating visually-faithful outputs remains a challenge. In this work, we shift our focus to the opposite: What could serve as a complementary enhancement to the original probability distribution? We propose a simple, training-free method termed RITUAL to enhance robustness against hallucinations in LVLMs. Our approach employs random image transformations as complements to the original probability distribution, aiming to mitigate the likelihood of hallucinatory visual explanations by enriching the model's exposure to varied visual scenarios. Our empirical results show that while the isolated use of transformed images initially degrades performance, strategic implementation of these transformations can indeed serve as effective complements. Notably, our method is compatible with current contrastive decoding methods and does not require external models or costly self-feedback mechanisms, making it a practical addition. In experiments, RITUAL significantly outperforms existing contrastive decoding methods across several object hallucination benchmarks, including POPE, CHAIR, and MME.

Emotional Support Conversation (ESC) is a typical dialogue that can effectively assist the user in mitigating emotional pressures. However, owing to the inherent subjectivity involved in analyzing emotions, current non-artificial methodologies face challenges in effectively appraising the emotional support capability. These metrics exhibit a low correlation with human judgments. Concurrently, manual evaluation methods extremely will cause high costs. To solve these problems, we propose a novel model FEEL (Framework for Evaluating Emotional Support Capability with Large Lan-guage Models), employing Large Language Models (LLMs) as evaluators to assess emotional support capabilities. The model meticulously considers various evaluative aspects of ESC to apply a more comprehensive and accurate evaluation method for ESC. Additionally, it employs a probability distribution approach for a more stable result and integrates an ensemble learning strategy, leveraging multiple LLMs with assigned weights to enhance evaluation accuracy. To appraise the performance of FEEL, we conduct extensive experiments on existing ESC model dialogues. Experimental results demonstrate our model exhibits a substantial enhancement in alignment with human evaluations compared to the baselines. Our source code is available at https://github.com/Ansisy/FEEL.

As a technique to bridge logit matching and probability distribution matching, temperature scaling plays a pivotal role in knowledge distillation (KD). Conventionally, temperature scaling is applied to both teacher's logits and student's logits in KD. Motivated by some recent works, in this paper, we drop instead temperature scaling on the student side, and systematically study the resulting variant of KD, dubbed transformed teacher matching (TTM). By reinterpreting temperature scaling as a power transform of probability distribution, we show that in comparison with the original KD, TTM has an inherent R\'enyi entropy term in its objective function, which serves as an extra regularization term. Extensive experiment results demonstrate that thanks to this inherent regularization, TTM leads to trained students with better generalization than the original KD. To further enhance student's capability to match teacher's power transformed probability distribution, we introduce a sample-adaptive weighting coefficient into TTM, yielding a novel distillation approach dubbed weighted TTM (WTTM). It is shown, by comprehensive experiments, that although WTTM is simple, it is effective, improves upon TTM, and achieves state-of-the-art accuracy performance. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zkxufo/TTM.

Self-supervised pre-training of language models usually consists in predicting probability distributions over extensive token vocabularies. In this study, we propose an innovative method that shifts away from probability prediction and instead focuses on reconstructing input embeddings in a contrastive fashion via Constrastive Weight Tying (CWT). We apply this approach to pretrain Headless Language Models in both monolingual and multilingual contexts. Our method offers practical advantages, substantially reducing training computational requirements by up to 20 times, while simultaneously enhancing downstream performance and data efficiency. We observe a significant +1.6 GLUE score increase and a notable +2.7 LAMBADA accuracy improvement compared to classical LMs within similar compute budgets.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Massively multilingual machine translation models allow for the translation of a large number of languages with a single model, but have limited performance on low- and very-low-resource translation directions. Pivoting via high-resource languages remains a strong strategy for low-resource directions, and in this paper we revisit ways of pivoting through multiple languages. Previous work has used a simple averaging of probability distributions from multiple paths, but we find that this performs worse than using a single pivot, and exacerbates the hallucination problem because the same hallucinations can be probable across different paths. As an alternative, we propose MaxEns, a combination strategy that is biased towards the most confident predictions, hypothesising that confident predictions are less prone to be hallucinations. We evaluate different strategies on the FLORES benchmark for 20 low-resource language directions, demonstrating that MaxEns improves translation quality for low-resource languages while reducing hallucination in translations, compared to both direct translation and an averaging approach. On average, multi-pivot strategies still lag behind using English as a single pivot language, raising the question of how to identify the best pivoting strategy for a given translation direction.

Self-supervised multi-frame monocular depth estimation relies on the geometric consistency between successive frames under the assumption of a static scene. However, the presence of moving objects in dynamic scenes introduces inevitable inconsistencies, causing misaligned multi-frame feature matching and misleading self-supervision during training. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called ProDepth, which effectively addresses the mismatch problem caused by dynamic objects using a probabilistic approach. We initially deduce the uncertainty associated with static scene assumption by adopting an auxiliary decoder. This decoder analyzes inconsistencies embedded in the cost volume, inferring the probability of areas being dynamic. We then directly rectify the erroneous cost volume for dynamic areas through a Probabilistic Cost Volume Modulation (PCVM) module. Specifically, we derive probability distributions of depth candidates from both single-frame and multi-frame cues, modulating the cost volume by adaptively fusing those distributions based on the inferred uncertainty. Additionally, we present a self-supervision loss reweighting strategy that not only masks out incorrect supervision with high uncertainty but also mitigates the risks in remaining possible dynamic areas in accordance with the probability. Our proposed method excels over state-of-the-art approaches in all metrics on both Cityscapes and KITTI datasets, and demonstrates superior generalization ability on the Waymo Open dataset.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Optimal Transport is a useful metric to compare probability distributions and to compute a pairing given a ground cost. Its entropic regularization variant (eOT) is crucial to have fast algorithms and reflect fuzzy/noisy matchings. This work focuses on Inverse Optimal Transport (iOT), the problem of inferring the ground cost from samples drawn from a coupling that solves an eOT problem. It is a relevant problem that can be used to infer unobserved/missing links, and to obtain meaningful information about the structure of the ground cost yielding the pairing. On one side, iOT benefits from convexity, but on the other side, being ill-posed, it requires regularization to handle the sampling noise. This work presents an in-depth theoretical study of the l1 regularization to model for instance Euclidean costs with sparse interactions between features. Specifically, we derive a sufficient condition for the robust recovery of the sparsity of the ground cost that can be seen as a far reaching generalization of the Lasso's celebrated Irrepresentability Condition. To provide additional insight into this condition, we work out in detail the Gaussian case. We show that as the entropic penalty varies, the iOT problem interpolates between a graphical Lasso and a classical Lasso, thereby establishing a connection between iOT and graph estimation, an important problem in ML.

Large-scale vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP successfully find correspondences between images and text. Through the standard deterministic mapping process, an image or a text sample is mapped to a single vector in the embedding space. This is problematic: as multiple samples (images or text) can abstract the same concept in the physical world, deterministic embeddings do not reflect the inherent ambiguity in the embedding space. We propose ProbVLM, a probabilistic adapter that estimates probability distributions for the embeddings of pre-trained VLMs via inter/intra-modal alignment in a post-hoc manner without needing large-scale datasets or computing. On four challenging datasets, i.e., COCO, Flickr, CUB, and Oxford-flowers, we estimate the multi-modal embedding uncertainties for two VLMs, i.e., CLIP and BLIP, quantify the calibration of embedding uncertainties in retrieval tasks and show that ProbVLM outperforms other methods. Furthermore, we propose active learning and model selection as two real-world downstream tasks for VLMs and show that the estimated uncertainty aids both tasks. Lastly, we present a novel technique for visualizing the embedding distributions using a large-scale pre-trained latent diffusion model.

As the number of seismic sensors grows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for analysts to pick seismic phases manually and comprehensively, yet such efforts are fundamental to earthquake monitoring. Despite years of improvements in automatic phase picking, it is difficult to match the performance of experienced analysts. A more subtle issue is that different seismic analysts may pick phases differently, which can introduce bias into earthquake locations. We present a deep-neural-network-based arrival-time picking method called "PhaseNet" that picks the arrival times of both P and S waves. Deep neural networks have recently made rapid progress in feature learning, and with sufficient training, have achieved super-human performance in many applications. PhaseNet uses three-component seismic waveforms as input and generates probability distributions of P arrivals, S arrivals, and noise as output. We engineer PhaseNet such that peaks in probability provide accurate arrival times for both P and S waves, and have the potential to increase the number of S-wave observations dramatically over what is currently available. This will enable both improved locations and improved shear wave velocity models. PhaseNet is trained on the prodigious available data set provided by analyst-labeled P and S arrival times from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The dataset we use contains more than seven million waveform samples extracted from over thirty years of earthquake recordings. We demonstrate that PhaseNet achieves much higher picking accuracy and recall rate than existing methods.

As with many machine learning problems, the progress of image generation methods hinges on good evaluation metrics. One of the most popular is the Frechet Inception Distance (FID). FID estimates the distance between a distribution of Inception-v3 features of real images, and those of images generated by the algorithm. We highlight important drawbacks of FID: Inception's poor representation of the rich and varied content generated by modern text-to-image models, incorrect normality assumptions, and poor sample complexity. We call for a reevaluation of FID's use as the primary quality metric for generated images. We empirically demonstrate that FID contradicts human raters, it does not reflect gradual improvement of iterative text-to-image models, it does not capture distortion levels, and that it produces inconsistent results when varying the sample size. We also propose an alternative new metric, CMMD, based on richer CLIP embeddings and the maximum mean discrepancy distance with the Gaussian RBF kernel. It is an unbiased estimator that does not make any assumptions on the probability distribution of the embeddings and is sample efficient. Through extensive experiments and analysis, we demonstrate that FID-based evaluations of text-to-image models may be unreliable, and that CMMD offers a more robust and reliable assessment of image quality.

Recently, deep learning technology has been successfully applied in the field of image compression, leading to superior rate-distortion performance. It is crucial to design an effective and efficient entropy model to estimate the probability distribution of the latent representation. However, the majority of entropy models primarily focus on one-dimensional correlation processing between channel and spatial information. In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Channel-wise and Global-inter attention Context (ACGC) entropy model, which can efficiently achieve dual feature aggregation in both inter-slice and intraslice contexts. Specifically, we divide the latent representation into different slices and then apply the ACGC model in a parallel checkerboard context to achieve faster decoding speed and higher rate-distortion performance. In order to capture redundant global features across different slices, we utilize deformable attention in adaptive global-inter attention to dynamically refine the attention weights based on the actual spatial relationships and context. Furthermore, in the main transformation structure, we propose a high-performance S2LIC model. We introduce the residual SwinV2 Transformer model to capture global feature information and utilize a dense block network as the feature enhancement module to improve the nonlinear representation of the image within the transformation structure. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves faster encoding and decoding speeds and outperforms VTM-17.1 and some recent learned image compression methods in both PSNR and MS-SSIM metrics.

Generative models are trained with the simple objective of imitating the conditional probability distribution induced by the data they are trained on. Therefore, when trained on data generated by humans, we may not expect the artificial model to outperform the humans on their original objectives. In this work, we study the phenomenon of transcendence: when a generative model achieves capabilities that surpass the abilities of the experts generating its data. We demonstrate transcendence by training an autoregressive transformer to play chess from game transcripts, and show that the trained model can sometimes achieve better performance than all players in the dataset. We theoretically prove that transcendence is enabled by low-temperature sampling, and rigorously assess this experimentally. Finally, we discuss other sources of transcendence, laying the groundwork for future investigation of this phenomenon in a broader setting.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context (query) and fixed vocabulary representations (keys). In this paper, we study the effect of the key distribution on the NTP distribution, with a focus on whether the similarity between keys will trigger spurious correlations in NTP. Through knowledge-probing tasks, we show that in the NTP distribution, the few top-ranked tokens are typically accurate. However, the middle-ranked prediction is highly biased towards the tokens that are distributionally (not necessarily semantically) similar to these top ones. For instance, if "P" is predicted as the top-1 token, "A"-"Z" will all be ranked high in NTP, no matter whether they can lead to correct decoding results. This hurts the sampling diversity and makes the sampling of correct, long-tail results hopeless and noisy. We attempt to alleviate this issue via a novel in-context method that iteratively pushes the query representation away from explored regions. Specifically, we include the explored decoding results in the context and prompt the LM to generate something else, which encourages the LM to produce a query representation that has small dot products with explored keys. Experiments on knowledge-probing tasks show that our method leads to efficient navigation away from explored keys to correct new keys. We further extend our method to open-ended and chain-of-thought (for reasoning) generation. Experiment results show that ICN contributes to better generation diversity and improved self-consistency voting performance. Finally, we discuss potential training issues caused by the fixed key space together with the challenges and possible ways to address them in future research.

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal transport map between two probability distributions, P and Q in mathbb R^d, on the basis of i.i.d. samples. All existing statistical analyses of this problem require the assumption that the transport map is Lipschitz, a strong requirement that, in particular, excludes any examples where the transport map is discontinuous. As a first step towards developing estimation procedures for discontinuous maps, we consider the important special case where the data distribution Q is a discrete measure supported on a finite number of points in mathbb R^d. We study a computationally efficient estimator initially proposed by Pooladian and Niles-Weed (2021), based on entropic optimal transport, and show in the semi-discrete setting that it converges at the minimax-optimal rate n^{-1/2}, independent of dimension. Other standard map estimation techniques both lack finite-sample guarantees in this setting and provably suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We confirm these results in numerical experiments, and provide experiments for other settings, not covered by our theory, which indicate that the entropic estimator is a promising methodology for other discontinuous transport map estimation problems.

Distributed representations of words encode lexical semantic information, but what type of information is encoded and how? Focusing on the skip-gram with negative-sampling method, we found that the squared norm of static word embedding encodes the information gain conveyed by the word; the information gain is defined by the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the co-occurrence distribution of the word to the unigram distribution. Our findings are explained by the theoretical framework of the exponential family of probability distributions and confirmed through precise experiments that remove spurious correlations arising from word frequency. This theory also extends to contextualized word embeddings in language models or any neural networks with the softmax output layer. We also demonstrate that both the KL divergence and the squared norm of embedding provide a useful metric of the informativeness of a word in tasks such as keyword extraction, proper-noun discrimination, and hypernym discrimination.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Temporal semantic scene understanding is critical for self-driving cars or robots operating in dynamic environments. In this paper, we propose 4D panoptic LiDAR segmentation to assign a semantic class and a temporally-consistent instance ID to a sequence of 3D points. To this end, we present an approach and a point-centric evaluation metric. Our approach determines a semantic class for every point while modeling object instances as probability distributions in the 4D spatio-temporal domain. We process multiple point clouds in parallel and resolve point-to-instance associations, effectively alleviating the need for explicit temporal data association. Inspired by recent advances in benchmarking of multi-object tracking, we propose to adopt a new evaluation metric that separates the semantic and point-to-instance association aspects of the task. With this work, we aim at paving the road for future developments of temporal LiDAR panoptic perception.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.

Levin Tree Search (LTS) is a search algorithm that makes use of a policy (a probability distribution over actions) and comes with a theoretical guarantee on the number of expansions before reaching a goal node, depending on the quality of the policy. This guarantee can be used as a loss function, which we call the LTS loss, to optimize neural networks representing the policy (LTS+NN). In this work we show that the neural network can be substituted with parameterized context models originating from the online compression literature (LTS+CM). We show that the LTS loss is convex under this new model, which allows for using standard convex optimization tools, and obtain convergence guarantees to the optimal parameters in an online setting for a given set of solution trajectories -- guarantees that cannot be provided for neural networks. The new LTS+CM algorithm compares favorably against LTS+NN on several benchmarks: Sokoban (Boxoban), The Witness, and the 24-Sliding Tile puzzle (STP). The difference is particularly large on STP, where LTS+NN fails to solve most of the test instances while LTS+CM solves each test instance in a fraction of a second. Furthermore, we show that LTS+CM is able to learn a policy that solves the Rubik's cube in only a few hundred expansions, which considerably improves upon previous machine learning techniques.

A visually-grounded navigation instruction can be interpreted as a sequence of expected observations and actions an agent following the correct trajectory would encounter and perform. Based on this intuition, we formulate the problem of finding the goal location in Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) within the framework of Bayesian state tracking - learning observation and motion models conditioned on these expectable events. Together with a mapper that constructs a semantic spatial map on-the-fly during navigation, we formulate an end-to-end differentiable Bayes filter and train it to identify the goal by predicting the most likely trajectory through the map according to the instructions. The resulting navigation policy constitutes a new approach to instruction following that explicitly models a probability distribution over states, encoding strong geometric and algorithmic priors while enabling greater explainability. Our experiments show that our approach outperforms a strong LingUNet baseline when predicting the goal location on the map. On the full VLN task, i.e. navigating to the goal location, our approach achieves promising results with less reliance on navigation constraints.

Global visual geolocation predicts where an image was captured on Earth. Since images vary in how precisely they can be localized, this task inherently involves a significant degree of ambiguity. However, existing approaches are deterministic and overlook this aspect. In this paper, we aim to close the gap between traditional geolocalization and modern generative methods. We propose the first generative geolocation approach based on diffusion and Riemannian flow matching, where the denoising process operates directly on the Earth's surface. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on three visual geolocation benchmarks: OpenStreetView-5M, YFCC-100M, and iNat21. In addition, we introduce the task of probabilistic visual geolocation, where the model predicts a probability distribution over all possible locations instead of a single point. We introduce new metrics and baselines for this task, demonstrating the advantages of our diffusion-based approach. Codes and models will be made available.

In this paper, we present a novel diffusion model called that generates multiview-consistent images from a single-view image. Using pretrained large-scale 2D diffusion models, recent work Zero123 demonstrates the ability to generate plausible novel views from a single-view image of an object. However, maintaining consistency in geometry and colors for the generated images remains a challenge. To address this issue, we propose a synchronized multiview diffusion model that models the joint probability distribution of multiview images, enabling the generation of multiview-consistent images in a single reverse process. SyncDreamer synchronizes the intermediate states of all the generated images at every step of the reverse process through a 3D-aware feature attention mechanism that correlates the corresponding features across different views. Experiments show that SyncDreamer generates images with high consistency across different views, thus making it well-suited for various 3D generation tasks such as novel-view-synthesis, text-to-3D, and image-to-3D.

In this paper, we give an in-depth analysis on the mathematical problem formulations and the probabilistic optimization explorations for some of the key components in Transformer model [33] in the field of generative AI. We explore and discuss some potential further enhancement for current state of the art methods for some key underlying technologies of generative AI models from algorithmic and probabilistic optimization perspective. In particular, we present an optimal solution for sub-word encoding (SWE) based on similar initial settings as that of byte-pair encoding (BPE) algorithm in [9] with similar objectives as that of WordPiece approach in [28, 31] to maximize the likelihood of the training data. We also present cross entropy optimization method to optimize hyperparameters for word2vec model [17]. In addition, we propose a factored combination of rotary positional encoding (RoPE) [32] and attention with linear biases (ALiBi) [23] with a harmonic series. We also present a probabilistic FlashAttention [6, 7] (PrFlashAttention) method with a probability distribution over block distances in the matrix to decide which block is likely to participate in a given round of attention computation while maintaining the lower triangle shape of the tensor for autoregressive language models by re-shaping the tensors. Finally, we present staircase adaptive quantization (SAQ) of key-value (KV) cache for multi-query attention (MQA) based on the framework presented in [16] to have gradual quantization degradation while achieving reasonable model quality and cost savings.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

We introduce pixelSplat, a feed-forward model that learns to reconstruct 3D radiance fields parameterized by 3D Gaussian primitives from pairs of images. Our model features real-time and memory-efficient rendering for scalable training as well as fast 3D reconstruction at inference time. To overcome local minima inherent to sparse and locally supported representations, we predict a dense probability distribution over 3D and sample Gaussian means from that probability distribution. We make this sampling operation differentiable via a reparameterization trick, allowing us to back-propagate gradients through the Gaussian splatting representation. We benchmark our method on wide-baseline novel view synthesis on the real-world RealEstate10k and ACID datasets, where we outperform state-of-the-art light field transformers and accelerate rendering by 2.5 orders of magnitude while reconstructing an interpretable and editable 3D radiance field.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) have shown substantial promise in self-supervised representation learning, yet their application in generative modeling remains underexplored. Conversely, diffusion models have demonstrated significant efficacy in modeling arbitrary probability distributions. In this paper, we introduce Denoising with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (D-JEPA), pioneering the integration of JEPA within generative modeling. By recognizing JEPA as a form of masked image modeling, we reinterpret it as a generalized next-token prediction strategy, facilitating data generation in an auto-regressive manner. Furthermore, we incorporate diffusion loss to model the per-token probability distribution, enabling data generation in a continuous space. We also adapt flow matching loss as an alternative to diffusion loss, thereby enhancing the flexibility of D-JEPA. Empirically, with increased GFLOPs, D-JEPA consistently achieves lower FID scores with fewer training epochs, indicating its good scalability. Our base, large, and huge models outperform all previous generative models across all scales on class-conditional ImageNet benchmarks. Beyond image generation, D-JEPA is well-suited for other continuous data modeling, including video and audio.

Detailed and photorealistic 3D human modeling is essential for various applications and has seen tremendous progress. However, full-body reconstruction from a monocular RGB image remains challenging due to the ill-posed nature of the problem and sophisticated clothing topology with self-occlusions. In this paper, we propose PSHuman, a novel framework that explicitly reconstructs human meshes utilizing priors from the multiview diffusion model. It is found that directly applying multiview diffusion on single-view human images leads to severe geometric distortions, especially on generated faces. To address it, we propose a cross-scale diffusion that models the joint probability distribution of global full-body shape and local facial characteristics, enabling detailed and identity-preserved novel-view generation without any geometric distortion. Moreover, to enhance cross-view body shape consistency of varied human poses, we condition the generative model on parametric models like SMPL-X, which provide body priors and prevent unnatural views inconsistent with human anatomy. Leveraging the generated multi-view normal and color images, we present SMPLX-initialized explicit human carving to recover realistic textured human meshes efficiently. Extensive experimental results and quantitative evaluations on CAPE and THuman2.1 datasets demonstrate PSHumans superiority in geometry details, texture fidelity, and generalization capability.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges the likelihood of their answers being correct. While many studies focus on improving the accuracy of uncertainty estimations for LLMs, our research investigates the fragility of uncertainty estimation and explores potential attacks. We demonstrate that an attacker can embed a backdoor in LLMs, which, when activated by a specific trigger in the input, manipulates the model's uncertainty without affecting the final output. Specifically, the proposed backdoor attack method can alter an LLM's output probability distribution, causing the probability distribution to converge towards an attacker-predefined distribution while ensuring that the top-1 prediction remains unchanged. Our experimental results demonstrate that this attack effectively undermines the model's self-evaluation reliability in multiple-choice questions. For instance, we achieved a 100 attack success rate (ASR) across three different triggering strategies in four models. Further, we investigate whether this manipulation generalizes across different prompts and domains. This work highlights a significant threat to the reliability of LLMs and underscores the need for future defenses against such attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/qcznlp/uncertainty_attack.

Feature attribution methods (FAs), such as gradients and attention, are widely employed approaches to derive the importance of all input features to the model predictions. Existing work in natural language processing has mostly focused on developing and testing FAs for encoder-only language models (LMs) in classification tasks. However, it is unknown if it is faithful to use these FAs for decoder-only models on text generation, due to the inherent differences between model architectures and task settings respectively. Moreover, previous work has demonstrated that there is no `one-wins-all' FA across models and tasks. This makes the selection of a FA computationally expensive for large LMs since input importance derivation often requires multiple forward and backward passes including gradient computations that might be prohibitive even with access to large compute. To address these issues, we present a model-agnostic FA for generative LMs called Recursive Attribution Generator (ReAGent). Our method updates the token importance distribution in a recursive manner. For each update, we compute the difference in the probability distribution over the vocabulary for predicting the next token between using the original input and using a modified version where a part of the input is replaced with RoBERTa predictions. Our intuition is that replacing an important token in the context should have resulted in a larger change in the model's confidence in predicting the token than replacing an unimportant token. Our method can be universally applied to any generative LM without accessing internal model weights or additional training and fine-tuning, as most other FAs require. We extensively compare the faithfulness of ReAGent with seven popular FAs across six decoder-only LMs of various sizes. The results show that our method consistently provides more faithful token importance distributions.

Discovering novel drug candidate molecules is one of the most fundamental and critical steps in drug development. Generative deep learning models, which create synthetic data given a probability distribution, have been developed with the purpose of picking completely new samples from a partially known space. Generative models offer high potential for designing de novo molecules; however, in order for them to be useful in real-life drug development pipelines, these models should be able to design target-specific molecules, which is the next step in this field. In this study, we propose DrugGEN, for the de novo design of drug candidate molecules that interact with selected target proteins. The proposed system represents compounds and protein structures as graphs and processes them via serially connected two generative adversarial networks comprising graph transformers. DrugGEN is trained using a large dataset of compounds from ChEMBL and target-specific bioactive molecules, to design effective and specific inhibitory molecules against the AKT1 protein, which has critical importance for developing treatments against various types of cancer. On fundamental benchmarks, DrugGEN models have either competitive or better performance against other methods. To assess the target-specific generation performance, we conducted further in silico analysis with molecular docking and deep learning-based bioactivity prediction. Results indicate that de novo molecules have high potential for interacting with the AKT1 protein structure in the level of its native ligand. DrugGEN can be used to design completely novel and effective target-specific drug candidate molecules for any druggable protein, given target features and a dataset of experimental bioactivities. Code base, datasets, results and trained models of DrugGEN are available at https://github.com/HUBioDataLab/DrugGEN

Speculative decoding accelerates inference in large language models (LLMs) by generating draft tokens for target model verification. Current approaches for obtaining draft tokens rely on lightweight draft models or additional model structures to generate draft tokens and retrieve context from databases. Due to the draft model's small size and limited training data, model-based speculative decoding frequently becomes less effective in out-of-domain scenarios. Additionally, the time cost of the drafting phase results in a low upper limit on acceptance length during the verification step, limiting overall efficiency. This paper proposes RASD (Retrieval-Augmented Speculative Decoding), which adopts retrieval methods to enhance model-based speculative decoding. We introduce tree pruning and tree fusion to achieve this. Specifically, we develop a pruning method based on the draft model's probability distribution to construct the optimal retrieval tree. Second, we employ the longest prefix matching algorithm to merge the tree generated by the draft model with the retrieval tree, resulting in a unified tree for verification. Experimental results demonstrate that RASD achieves state-of-the-art inference acceleration across tasks such as DocQA, Summary, Code, and In-Domain QA. Moreover, RASD exhibits strong scalability, seamlessly integrating with various speculative decoding approaches, including both generation-based and retrieval-based methods.

As the scale of training corpora for large language models (LLMs) grows, model developers become increasingly reluctant to disclose details on their data. This lack of transparency poses challenges to scientific evaluation and ethical deployment. Recently, pretraining data detection approaches, which infer whether a given text was part of an LLM's training data through black-box access, have been explored. The Min-K\% Prob method, which has achieved state-of-the-art results, assumes that a non-training example tends to contain a few outlier words with low token probabilities. However, the effectiveness may be limited as it tends to misclassify non-training texts that contain many common words with high probabilities predicted by LLMs. To address this issue, we introduce a divergence-based calibration method, inspired by the divergence-from-randomness concept, to calibrate token probabilities for pretraining data detection. We compute the cross-entropy (i.e., the divergence) between the token probability distribution and the token frequency distribution to derive a detection score. We have developed a Chinese-language benchmark, PatentMIA, to assess the performance of detection approaches for LLMs on Chinese text. Experimental results on English-language benchmarks and PatentMIA demonstrate that our proposed method significantly outperforms existing methods. Our code and PatentMIA benchmark are available at https://github.com/zhang-wei-chao/DC-PDD.

Cross-domain NER is a practical yet challenging problem since the data scarcity in the real-world scenario. A common practice is first to learn a NER model in a rich-resource general domain and then adapt the model to specific domains. Due to the mismatch problem between entity types across domains, the wide knowledge in the general domain can not effectively transfer to the target domain NER model. To this end, we model the label relationship as a probability distribution and construct label graphs in both source and target label spaces. To enhance the contextual representation with label structures, we fuse the label graph into the word embedding output by BERT. By representing label relationships as graphs, we formulate cross-domain NER as a graph matching problem. Furthermore, the proposed method has good applicability with pre-training methods and is potentially capable of other cross-domain prediction tasks. Empirical results on four datasets show that our method outperforms a series of transfer learning, multi-task learning, and few-shot learning methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate longform text by successively sampling the next token based on the probability distribution of the token vocabulary at each decoding step. Current popular truncation sampling methods such as top-p sampling, also known as nucleus sampling, often struggle to balance coherence and creativity in generating text, particularly when using higher temperatures. To address this issue, we propose min-p, a dynamic truncation sampling method, that establishes a minimum base percentage threshold for tokens, which the scales according to the probability of the top candidate token. Through experiments on several benchmarks, such as GPQA, GSM8K and AlpacaEval Creative Writing, we demonstrate that min-p improves the coherence and quality of generated text even at high temperatures, while also facilitating more creative and diverse outputs compared to top-p and other sampling methods. As of writing, min-p has been adopted by multiple open-source LLM implementations, and have been independently assessed by members of the open-source LLM community, further validating its practical utility and potential.

The recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have sparked a growing apprehension regarding the potential misuse. One approach to mitigating this risk is to incorporate watermarking techniques into LLMs, allowing for the tracking and attribution of model outputs. This study examines a crucial aspect of watermarking: how significantly watermarks impact the quality of model-generated outputs. Previous studies have suggested a trade-off between watermark strength and output quality. However, our research demonstrates that it is possible to integrate watermarks without affecting the output probability distribution with appropriate implementation. We refer to this type of watermark as an unbiased watermark. This has significant implications for the use of LLMs, as it becomes impossible for users to discern whether a service provider has incorporated watermarks or not. Furthermore, the presence of watermarks does not compromise the performance of the model in downstream tasks, ensuring that the overall utility of the language model is preserved. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discussion around responsible AI development, suggesting that unbiased watermarks can serve as an effective means of tracking and attributing model outputs without sacrificing output quality.

In this paper, we rethink the low-light image enhancement task and propose a physically explainable and generative diffusion model for low-light image enhancement, termed as Diff-Retinex. We aim to integrate the advantages of the physical model and the generative network. Furthermore, we hope to supplement and even deduce the information missing in the low-light image through the generative network. Therefore, Diff-Retinex formulates the low-light image enhancement problem into Retinex decomposition and conditional image generation. In the Retinex decomposition, we integrate the superiority of attention in Transformer and meticulously design a Retinex Transformer decomposition network (TDN) to decompose the image into illumination and reflectance maps. Then, we design multi-path generative diffusion networks to reconstruct the normal-light Retinex probability distribution and solve the various degradations in these components respectively, including dark illumination, noise, color deviation, loss of scene contents, etc. Owing to generative diffusion model, Diff-Retinex puts the restoration of low-light subtle detail into practice. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world low-light datasets qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate the effectiveness, superiority, and generalization of the proposed method.

Large language models (LLMs) successfully model natural language from vast amounts of text without the need for explicit supervision. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of LLMs in modeling passwords. We present PassGPT, a LLM trained on password leaks for password generation. PassGPT outperforms existing methods based on generative adversarial networks (GAN) by guessing twice as many previously unseen passwords. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of guided password generation, where we leverage PassGPT sampling procedure to generate passwords matching arbitrary constraints, a feat lacking in current GAN-based strategies. Lastly, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the entropy and probability distribution that PassGPT defines over passwords and discuss their use in enhancing existing password strength estimators.

LLMs now exhibit human-like skills in various fields, leading to worries about misuse. Thus, detecting generated text is crucial. However, passive detection methods are stuck in domain specificity and limited adversarial robustness. To achieve reliable detection, a watermark-based method was proposed for white-box LLMs, allowing them to embed watermarks during text generation. The method involves randomly dividing the model vocabulary to obtain a special list and adjusting the probability distribution to promote the selection of words in the list. A detection algorithm aware of the list can identify the watermarked text. However, this method is not applicable in many real-world scenarios where only black-box language models are available. For instance, third-parties that develop API-based vertical applications cannot watermark text themselves because API providers only supply generated text and withhold probability distributions to shield their commercial interests. To allow third-parties to autonomously inject watermarks into generated text, we develop a watermarking framework for black-box language model usage scenarios. Specifically, we first define a binary encoding function to compute a random binary encoding corresponding to a word. The encodings computed for non-watermarked text conform to a Bernoulli distribution, wherein the probability of a word representing bit-1 being approximately 0.5. To inject a watermark, we alter the distribution by selectively replacing words representing bit-0 with context-based synonyms that represent bit-1. A statistical test is then used to identify the watermark. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both Chinese and English datasets. Furthermore, results under re-translation, polishing, word deletion, and synonym substitution attacks reveal that it is arduous to remove the watermark without compromising the original semantics.

Identifying a small molecule from its mass spectrum is the primary open problem in computational metabolomics. This is typically cast as information retrieval: an unknown spectrum is matched against spectra predicted computationally from a large database of chemical structures. However, current approaches to spectrum prediction model the output space in ways that force a tradeoff between capturing high resolution mass information and tractable learning. We resolve this tradeoff by casting spectrum prediction as a mapping from an input molecular graph to a probability distribution over molecular formulas. We discover that a large corpus of mass spectra can be closely approximated using a fixed vocabulary constituting only 2% of all observed formulas. This enables efficient spectrum prediction using an architecture similar to graph classification - GrAFF-MS - achieving significantly lower prediction error and orders-of-magnitude faster runtime than state-of-the-art methods.

Multimodal semantic understanding often has to deal with uncertainty, which means the obtained messages tend to refer to multiple targets. Such uncertainty is problematic for our interpretation, including inter- and intra-modal uncertainty. Little effort has studied the modeling of this uncertainty, particularly in pre-training on unlabeled datasets and fine-tuning in task-specific downstream datasets. In this paper, we project the representations of all modalities as probabilistic distributions via a Probability Distribution Encoder (PDE) by utilizing sequence-level interactions. Compared to the existing deterministic methods, such uncertainty modeling can convey richer multimodal semantic information and more complex relationships. Furthermore, we integrate uncertainty modeling with popular pre-training frameworks and propose suitable pre-training tasks: Distribution-based Vision-Language Contrastive learning (D-VLC), Distribution-based Masked Language Modeling (D-MLM), and Distribution-based Image-Text Matching (D-ITM). The fine-tuned models are applied to challenging downstream tasks, including image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment, and achieve state-of-the-art results.

Given a pair of partially overlapping source and target images and a keypoint in the source image, the keypoint's correspondent in the target image can be either visible, occluded or outside the field of view. Local feature matching methods are only able to identify the correspondent's location when it is visible, while humans can also hallucinate its location when it is occluded or outside the field of view through geometric reasoning. In this paper, we bridge this gap by training a network to output a peaked probability distribution over the correspondent's location, regardless of this correspondent being visible, occluded, or outside the field of view. We experimentally demonstrate that this network is indeed able to hallucinate correspondences on pairs of images captured in scenes that were not seen at training-time. We also apply this network to an absolute camera pose estimation problem and find it is significantly more robust than state-of-the-art local feature matching-based competitors.

In this paper we present an end-to-end speech recognition model with Transformer encoders that can be used in a streaming speech recognition system. Transformer computation blocks based on self-attention are used to encode both audio and label sequences independently. The activations from both audio and label encoders are combined with a feed-forward layer to compute a probability distribution over the label space for every combination of acoustic frame position and label history. This is similar to the Recurrent Neural Network Transducer (RNN-T) model, which uses RNNs for information encoding instead of Transformer encoders. The model is trained with the RNN-T loss well-suited to streaming decoding. We present results on the LibriSpeech dataset showing that limiting the left context for self-attention in the Transformer layers makes decoding computationally tractable for streaming, with only a slight degradation in accuracy. We also show that the full attention version of our model beats the-state-of-the art accuracy on the LibriSpeech benchmarks. Our results also show that we can bridge the gap between full attention and limited attention versions of our model by attending to a limited number of future frames.

Network interpretation as an effort to reveal the features learned by a network remains largely visualization-based. In this paper, our goal is to tackle semantic network interpretation at both filter and decision level. For filter-level interpretation, we represent the concepts a filter encodes with a probability distribution of visual attributes. The decision-level interpretation is achieved by textual summarization that generates an explanatory sentence containing clues behind a network's decision. A Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed to automatically associate filters and network decisions with visual attributes. Human study confirms that the semantic interpretation is a beneficial alternative or complement to visualization methods. We demonstrate the crucial role that semantic network interpretation can play in understanding a network's failure patterns. More importantly, semantic network interpretation enables a better understanding of the correlation between a model's performance and its distribution metrics like filter selectivity and concept sparseness.

3D shape is a crucial but heavily underutilized cue in today's computer vision systems, mostly due to the lack of a good generic shape representation. With the recent availability of inexpensive 2.5D depth sensors (e.g. Microsoft Kinect), it is becoming increasingly important to have a powerful 3D shape representation in the loop. Apart from category recognition, recovering full 3D shapes from view-based 2.5D depth maps is also a critical part of visual understanding. To this end, we propose to represent a geometric 3D shape as a probability distribution of binary variables on a 3D voxel grid, using a Convolutional Deep Belief Network. Our model, 3D ShapeNets, learns the distribution of complex 3D shapes across different object categories and arbitrary poses from raw CAD data, and discovers hierarchical compositional part representations automatically. It naturally supports joint object recognition and shape completion from 2.5D depth maps, and it enables active object recognition through view planning. To train our 3D deep learning model, we construct ModelNet -- a large-scale 3D CAD model dataset. Extensive experiments show that our 3D deep representation enables significant performance improvement over the-state-of-the-arts in a variety of tasks.

Plenty of existing work has analyzed the abilities of the transformer architecture by describing its representational capacity with formal models of computation. However, the focus so far has been on analyzing the architecture in terms of language acceptance. We contend that this is an ill-suited problem in the study of language models (LMs), which are definitionally probability distributions over strings. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between transformer LMs and n-gram LMs, a simple and historically relevant class of language models. We show that transformer LMs using the hard or sparse attention mechanisms can exactly represent any n-gram LM, giving us a concrete lower bound on their probabilistic representational capacity. This provides a first step towards understanding the mechanisms that transformer LMs can use to represent probability distributions over strings.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

Wasserstein gradient flow has emerged as a promising approach to solve optimization problems over the space of probability distributions. A recent trend is to use the well-known JKO scheme in combination with input convex neural networks to numerically implement the proximal step. The most challenging step, in this setup, is to evaluate functions involving density explicitly, such as entropy, in terms of samples. This paper builds on the recent works with a slight but crucial difference: we propose to utilize a variational formulation of the objective function formulated as maximization over a parametric class of functions. Theoretically, the proposed variational formulation allows the construction of gradient flows directly for empirical distributions with a well-defined and meaningful objective function. Computationally, this approach replaces the computationally expensive step in existing methods, to handle objective functions involving density, with inner loop updates that only require a small batch of samples and scale well with the dimension. The performance and scalability of the proposed method are illustrated with the aid of several numerical experiments involving high-dimensional synthetic and real datasets.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

We present a new approach for the approximate K-nearest neighbor search based on navigable small world graphs with controllable hierarchy (Hierarchical NSW, HNSW). The proposed solution is fully graph-based, without any need for additional search structures, which are typically used at the coarse search stage of the most proximity graph techniques. Hierarchical NSW incrementally builds a multi-layer structure consisting from hierarchical set of proximity graphs (layers) for nested subsets of the stored elements. The maximum layer in which an element is present is selected randomly with an exponentially decaying probability distribution. This allows producing graphs similar to the previously studied Navigable Small World (NSW) structures while additionally having the links separated by their characteristic distance scales. Starting search from the upper layer together with utilizing the scale separation boosts the performance compared to NSW and allows a logarithmic complexity scaling. Additional employment of a heuristic for selecting proximity graph neighbors significantly increases performance at high recall and in case of highly clustered data. Performance evaluation has demonstrated that the proposed general metric space search index is able to strongly outperform previous opensource state-of-the-art vector-only approaches. Similarity of the algorithm to the skip list structure allows straightforward balanced distributed implementation.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive few-shot generalization on many tasks via in-context learning (ICL). Despite their success in showing such emergent abilities, the scale and complexity of larger models also lead to unprecedentedly high computational demands and deployment challenges. In reaction, researchers explore transferring the powerful capabilities of larger models to more efficient and compact models by typically aligning the output of smaller models with that of larger models. Existing methods either train smaller models on the generated outputs of larger models or to imitate their token-level probability distributions. However, these distillation methods pay little to no attention to the input part, which also plays a crucial role in ICL. Based on the finding that the performance of ICL is highly sensitive to the selection of demonstration examples, we propose Bidirectional Alignment (BiAlign) to fully leverage the models' preferences for ICL examples to improve the ICL abilities of smaller models. Specifically, we introduce the alignment of input preferences between smaller and larger models by incorporating a novel ranking loss, in addition to aligning the token-level output distribution. With extensive experiments and analysis, we demonstrate that BiAlign can consistently outperform existing baselines on a variety of tasks including language understanding, reasoning, and coding.

Understanding equilibration and thermalization in isolated many-body quantum systems is a central challenge in quantum physics. The traditional approach focuses on the study of the full state of the quantum system which, at equilibrium, is best described by the Diagonal Ensemble. Here, we present Observable Statistical Mechanics, a novel paradigm that shifts attention from the full quantum state to the statistics of measurement outcomes. This approach is grounded in the Maximum Observable Entropy Principle, positing that equilibrium measurement statistics tend to maximize observable entropy under conserved average energy. By focusing on accessible measurements, the theory accurately predicts equilibrium probability distributions without needing detailed microscopic information like the energy eigenstates. Extensive numerical experiments on 7 spin-1/2 Hamiltonians demonstrate the broad applicability and robustness of this framework.

The field of image generation has made significant progress thanks to the introduction of Diffusion Models, which learn to progressively reverse a given image corruption. Recently, a few studies introduced alternative ways of corrupting images in Diffusion Models, with an emphasis on blurring. However, these studies are purely empirical and it remains unclear what is the optimal procedure for corrupting an image. In this work, we hypothesize that the optimal procedure minimizes the length of the path taken when corrupting an image towards a given final state. We propose the Fisher metric for the path length, measured in the space of probability distributions. We compute the shortest path according to this metric, and we show that it corresponds to a combination of image sharpening, rather than blurring, and noise deblurring. While the corruption was chosen arbitrarily in previous work, our Shortest Path Diffusion (SPD) determines uniquely the entire spatiotemporal structure of the corruption. We show that SPD improves on strong baselines without any hyperparameter tuning, and outperforms all previous Diffusion Models based on image blurring. Furthermore, any small deviation from the shortest path leads to worse performance, suggesting that SPD provides the optimal procedure to corrupt images. Our work sheds new light on observations made in recent works and provides a new approach to improve diffusion models on images and other types of data.

Deep point cloud registration methods face challenges to partial overlaps and rely on labeled data. To address these issues, we propose UDPReg, an unsupervised deep probabilistic registration framework for point clouds with partial overlaps. Specifically, we first adopt a network to learn posterior probability distributions of Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) from point clouds. To handle partial point cloud registration, we apply the Sinkhorn algorithm to predict the distribution-level correspondences under the constraint of the mixing weights of GMMs. To enable unsupervised learning, we design three distribution consistency-based losses: self-consistency, cross-consistency, and local contrastive. The self-consistency loss is formulated by encouraging GMMs in Euclidean and feature spaces to share identical posterior distributions. The cross-consistency loss derives from the fact that the points of two partially overlapping point clouds belonging to the same clusters share the cluster centroids. The cross-consistency loss allows the network to flexibly learn a transformation-invariant posterior distribution of two aligned point clouds. The local contrastive loss facilitates the network to extract discriminative local features. Our UDPReg achieves competitive performance on the 3DMatch/3DLoMatch and ModelNet/ModelLoNet benchmarks.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

We propose a novel neural algorithm for the fundamental problem of computing the entropic optimal transport (EOT) plan between continuous probability distributions which are accessible by samples. Our algorithm is based on the saddle point reformulation of the dynamic version of EOT which is known as the Schr\"odinger Bridge problem. In contrast to the prior methods for large-scale EOT, our algorithm is end-to-end and consists of a single learning step, has fast inference procedure, and allows handling small values of the entropy regularization coefficient which is of particular importance in some applied problems. Empirically, we show the performance of the method on several large-scale EOT tasks. https://github.com/ngushchin/EntropicNeuralOptimalTransport

The softmax (also called softargmax) function is widely used in machine learning models to normalize real-valued scores into a probability distribution. To avoid floating-point overflow, the softmax function is conventionally implemented in three passes: the first pass to compute the normalization constant, and two other passes to compute outputs from normalized inputs. We analyze two variants of the Three-Pass algorithm and demonstrate that in a well-optimized implementation on HPC-class processors performance of all three passes is limited by memory bandwidth. We then present a novel algorithm for softmax computation in just two passes. The proposed Two-Pass algorithm avoids both numerical overflow and the extra normalization pass by employing an exotic representation for intermediate values, where each value is represented as a pair of floating-point numbers: one representing the "mantissa" and another representing the "exponent". Performance evaluation demonstrates that on out-of-cache inputs on an Intel Skylake-X processor the new Two-Pass algorithm outperforms the traditional Three-Pass algorithm by up to 28% in AVX512 implementation, and by up to 18% in AVX2 implementation. The proposed Two-Pass algorithm also outperforms the traditional Three-Pass algorithm on Intel Broadwell and AMD Zen 2 processors. To foster reproducibility, we released an open-source implementation of the new Two-Pass Softmax algorithm and other experiments in this paper as a part of XNNPACK library at GitHub.com/google/XNNPACK.

Anonymized data is highly valuable to both businesses and researchers. A large body of research has however shown the strong limits of the de-identification release-and-forget model, where data is anonymized and shared. This has led to the development of privacy-preserving query-based systems. Based on the idea of "sticky noise", Diffix has been recently proposed as a novel query-based mechanism satisfying alone the EU Article~29 Working Party's definition of anonymization. According to its authors, Diffix adds less noise to answers than solutions based on differential privacy while allowing for an unlimited number of queries. This paper presents a new class of noise-exploitation attacks, exploiting the noise added by the system to infer private information about individuals in the dataset. Our first differential attack uses samples extracted from Diffix in a likelihood ratio test to discriminate between two probability distributions. We show that using this attack against a synthetic best-case dataset allows us to infer private information with 89.4% accuracy using only 5 attributes. Our second cloning attack uses dummy conditions that conditionally strongly affect the output of the query depending on the value of the private attribute. Using this attack on four real-world datasets, we show that we can infer private attributes of at least 93% of the users in the dataset with accuracy between 93.3% and 97.1%, issuing a median of 304 queries per user. We show how to optimize this attack, targeting 55.4% of the users and achieving 91.7% accuracy, using a maximum of only 32 queries per user. Our attacks demonstrate that adding data-dependent noise, as done by Diffix, is not sufficient to prevent inference of private attributes. We furthermore argue that Diffix alone fails to satisfy Art. 29 WP's definition of anonymization. [...]

In this paper we study generative modeling via autoencoders while using the elegant geometric properties of the optimal transport (OT) problem and the Wasserstein distances. We introduce Sliced-Wasserstein Autoencoders (SWAE), which are generative models that enable one to shape the distribution of the latent space into any samplable probability distribution without the need for training an adversarial network or defining a closed-form for the distribution. In short, we regularize the autoencoder loss with the sliced-Wasserstein distance between the distribution of the encoded training samples and a predefined samplable distribution. We show that the proposed formulation has an efficient numerical solution that provides similar capabilities to Wasserstein Autoencoders (WAE) and Variational Autoencoders (VAE), while benefiting from an embarrassingly simple implementation.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) are widely used for novel-view synthesis and have been adapted for 3D Object Detection (3DOD), offering a promising approach to 3DOD through view-synthesis representation. However, NeRF faces inherent limitations: (i) limited representational capacity for 3DOD due to its implicit nature, and (ii) slow rendering speeds. Recently, 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has emerged as an explicit 3D representation that addresses these limitations. Inspired by these advantages, this paper introduces 3DGS into 3DOD for the first time, identifying two main challenges: (i) Ambiguous spatial distribution of Gaussian blobs: 3DGS primarily relies on 2D pixel-level supervision, resulting in unclear 3D spatial distribution of Gaussian blobs and poor differentiation between objects and background, which hinders 3DOD; (ii) Excessive background blobs: 2D images often include numerous background pixels, leading to densely reconstructed 3DGS with many noisy Gaussian blobs representing the background, negatively affecting detection. To tackle the challenge (i), we leverage the fact that 3DGS reconstruction is derived from 2D images, and propose an elegant and efficient solution by incorporating 2D Boundary Guidance to significantly enhance the spatial distribution of Gaussian blobs, resulting in clearer differentiation between objects and their background. To address the challenge (ii), we propose a Box-Focused Sampling strategy using 2D boxes to generate object probability distribution in 3D spaces, allowing effective probabilistic sampling in 3D to retain more object blobs and reduce noisy background blobs. Benefiting from our designs, our 3DGS-DET significantly outperforms the SOTA NeRF-based method, NeRF-Det, achieving improvements of +6.6 on [email protected] and +8.1 on [email protected] for the ScanNet dataset, and impressive +31.5 on [email protected] for the ARKITScenes dataset.

We present MELLE, a novel continuous-valued tokens based language modeling approach for text to speech synthesis (TTS). MELLE autoregressively generates continuous mel-spectrogram frames directly from text condition, bypassing the need for vector quantization, which are originally designed for audio compression and sacrifice fidelity compared to mel-spectrograms. Specifically, (i) instead of cross-entropy loss, we apply regression loss with a proposed spectrogram flux loss function to model the probability distribution of the continuous-valued tokens. (ii) we have incorporated variational inference into MELLE to facilitate sampling mechanisms, thereby enhancing the output diversity and model robustness. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to the two-stage codec language models VALL-E and its variants, the single-stage MELLE mitigates robustness issues by avoiding the inherent flaws of sampling discrete codes, achieves superior performance across multiple metrics, and, most importantly, offers a more streamlined paradigm. See https://aka.ms/melle for demos of our work.

Efficient hyperparameter or architecture search methods have shown remarkable results, but each of them is only applicable to searching for either hyperparameters (HPs) or architectures. In this work, we propose a unified pipeline, AutoHAS, to efficiently search for both architectures and hyperparameters. AutoHAS learns to alternately update the shared network weights and a reinforcement learning (RL) controller, which learns the probability distribution for the architecture candidates and HP candidates. A temporary weight is introduced to store the updated weight from the selected HPs (by the controller), and a validation accuracy based on this temporary weight serves as a reward to update the controller. In experiments, we show AutoHAS is efficient and generalizable to different search spaces, baselines and datasets. In particular, AutoHAS can improve the accuracy over popular network architectures, such as ResNet and EfficientNet, on CIFAR-10/100, ImageNet, and four more other datasets.

Post-training of language models, either through reinforcement learning, preference optimization or supervised finetuning, tends to sharpen the output probability distribution and reduce the diversity of generated responses. This is particularly a problem for creative generative tasks where varied responses are desired. In this work we introduce Diverse Preference Optimization (DivPO), an optimization method which learns to generate much more diverse responses than standard pipelines, while maintaining the quality of the generations. In DivPO, preference pairs are selected by first considering a pool of responses, and a measure of diversity among them, and selecting chosen examples as being more rare but high quality, while rejected examples are more common, but low quality. DivPO results in generating 45.6% more diverse persona attributes, and an 74.6% increase in story diversity, while maintaining similar win rates as standard baselines.

Pruning deep neural networks is a widely used strategy to alleviate the computational burden in machine learning. Overwhelming empirical evidence suggests that pruned models retain very high accuracy even with a tiny fraction of parameters. However, relatively little work has gone into characterising the small pruned networks obtained, beyond a measure of their accuracy. In this paper, we use the sparse double descent approach to identify univocally and characterise pruned models associated with classification tasks. We observe empirically that, for a given task, iterative magnitude pruning (IMP) tends to converge to networks of comparable sizes even when starting from full networks with sizes ranging over orders of magnitude. We analyse the best pruned models in a controlled experimental setup and show that their number of parameters reflects task difficulty and that they are much better than full networks at capturing the true conditional probability distribution of the labels. On real data, we similarly observe that pruned models are less prone to overconfident predictions. Our results suggest that pruned models obtained via IMP not only have advantageous computational properties but also provide a better representation of uncertainty in learning.

Network pruning reduces the computation costs of an over-parameterized network without performance damage. Prevailing pruning algorithms pre-define the width and depth of the pruned networks, and then transfer parameters from the unpruned network to pruned networks. To break the structure limitation of the pruned networks, we propose to apply neural architecture search to search directly for a network with flexible channel and layer sizes. The number of the channels/layers is learned by minimizing the loss of the pruned networks. The feature map of the pruned network is an aggregation of K feature map fragments (generated by K networks of different sizes), which are sampled based on the probability distribution.The loss can be back-propagated not only to the network weights, but also to the parameterized distribution to explicitly tune the size of the channels/layers. Specifically, we apply channel-wise interpolation to keep the feature map with different channel sizes aligned in the aggregation procedure. The maximum probability for the size in each distribution serves as the width and depth of the pruned network, whose parameters are learned by knowledge transfer, e.g., knowledge distillation, from the original networks. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of our new perspective of network pruning compared to traditional network pruning algorithms. Various searching and knowledge transfer approaches are conducted to show the effectiveness of the two components. Code is at: https://github.com/D-X-Y/NAS-Projects.

The photometric redshift estimation (photo-z) has been developed over the years with various methods. In this work, we analyse four different photo-z estimators using the Dark Energy Survey Y3 BAO Sample: ANNz2, BPZ, ENF, and DNF. Unlike what is usually found in the literature, we investigate the possibility of selecting the best galaxies according to their redshift Probability Distribution Function (PDF). We selected 25,760 galaxies from four different spectroscopic surveys and cross-matched them with the photo-z sample. These galaxies served to understand the redshift bias and its 68th percentile sigma_{68}. We found that within a range of 0.79<z_p<0.85 there is the lowest sigma for all the estimators we analysed. DNF has the biggest absolute value of the bias (sigma), while ENF, ANNz2 and BPZ lose precision for a redshift range below 0.7 and higher than 0.9. If one wants to pick the best galaxies by removing the bins with the worst bias, one will find that ANNz2 is the most robust algorithm for all chosen criteria. When selecting the best PDFs, the resulting sub-samples gave BPZ with more selected objects. ANNz2 shows better precision, ENF has the worst selection of Gaussian PDFs, with very few galaxies left for an LSS study. We also showed that even though the PDFs are smooth, there are catastrophic redshift results. Lastly, DNF is the worst in precision but with sufficient galaxies for cosmological analysis. We also selected galaxies whose PDFs have only secondary peaks not bigger than 30\% of the main peak height, called Small Peaks. For these sub-samples, ANNz2 outperformed the other algorithms. We will make all catalogs publicly available through the package Pz Cats.

Recent advances in GPT-4o like multi-modality models have demonstrated remarkable progress for direct speech-to-speech conversation, with real-time speech interaction experience and strong speech understanding ability. However, current research focuses on discrete speech tokens to align with discrete text tokens for language modelling, which depends on an audio codec with residual connections or independent group tokens, such a codec usually leverages large scale and diverse datasets training to ensure that the discrete speech codes have good representation for varied domain, noise, style data reconstruction as well as a well-designed codec quantizer and encoder-decoder architecture for discrete token language modelling. This paper introduces Flow-Omni, a continuous speech token based GPT-4o like model, capable of real-time speech interaction and low streaming latency. Specifically, first, instead of cross-entropy loss only, we combine flow matching loss with a pretrained autoregressive LLM and a small MLP network to predict the probability distribution of the continuous-valued speech tokens from speech prompt. second, we incorporated the continuous speech tokens to Flow-Omni multi-modality training, thereby achieving robust speech-to-speech performance with discrete text tokens and continuous speech tokens together. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to discrete text and speech multi-modality training and its variants, the continuous speech tokens mitigate robustness issues by avoiding the inherent flaws of discrete speech code's representation loss for LLM.

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) relies heavily on the huge amount of pre-training data learned in the pre-training phase. The opacity of the pre-training process and the training data causes the results of many benchmark tests to become unreliable. If any model has been trained on a benchmark test set, it can seriously hinder the health of the field. In order to automate and efficiently test the capabilities of large language models, numerous mainstream benchmarks adopt a multiple-choice format. As the swapping of the contents of multiple-choice options does not affect the meaning of the question itself, we propose a simple and effective data leakage detection method based on this property. Specifically, we shuffle the contents of the options in the data to generate the corresponding derived data sets, and then detect data leakage based on the model's log probability distribution over the derived data sets. If there is a maximum and outlier in the set of log probabilities, it indicates that the data is leaked. Our method is able to work under black-box conditions without access to model training data or weights, effectively identifying data leakage from benchmark test sets in model pre-training data, including both normal scenarios and complex scenarios where options may have been shuffled intentionally or unintentionally. Through experiments based on two LLMs and benchmark designs, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. In addition, we evaluate the degree of data leakage of 31 mainstream open-source LLMs on four benchmark datasets and give a ranking of the leaked LLMs for each benchmark, and we find that the Qwen family of LLMs has the highest degree of data leakage.

While 3D Gaussian Splatting has recently become popular for neural rendering, current methods rely on carefully engineered cloning and splitting strategies for placing Gaussians, which can lead to poor-quality renderings, and reliance on a good initialization. In this work, we rethink the set of 3D Gaussians as a random sample drawn from an underlying probability distribution describing the physical representation of the scene-in other words, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples. Under this view, we show that the 3D Gaussian updates can be converted as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) updates by simply introducing noise. We then rewrite the densification and pruning strategies in 3D Gaussian Splatting as simply a deterministic state transition of MCMC samples, removing these heuristics from the framework. To do so, we revise the 'cloning' of Gaussians into a relocalization scheme that approximately preserves sample probability. To encourage efficient use of Gaussians, we introduce a regularizer that promotes the removal of unused Gaussians. On various standard evaluation scenes, we show that our method provides improved rendering quality, easy control over the number of Gaussians, and robustness to initialization.

Masked graph autoencoders have emerged as a powerful graph self-supervised learning method that has yet to be fully explored. In this paper, we unveil that the existing discrete edge masking and binary link reconstruction strategies are insufficient to learn topologically informative representations, from the perspective of message propagation on graph neural networks. These limitations include blocking message flows, vulnerability to over-smoothness, and suboptimal neighborhood discriminability. Inspired by these understandings, we explore non-discrete edge masks, which are sampled from a continuous and dispersive probability distribution instead of the discrete Bernoulli distribution. These masks restrict the amount of output messages for each edge, referred to as "bandwidths". We propose a novel, informative, and effective topological masked graph autoencoder using bandwidth masking and a layer-wise bandwidth prediction objective. We demonstrate its powerful graph topological learning ability both theoretically and empirically. Our proposed framework outperforms representative baselines in both self-supervised link prediction (improving the discrete edge reconstructors by at most 20%) and node classification on numerous datasets, solely with a structure-learning pretext. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/Newiz430/Bandana.

We propose the Multi-Head Gaussian Adaptive Attention Mechanism (GAAM), a novel probabilistic attention framework, and the Gaussian Adaptive Transformer (GAT), designed to enhance information aggregation across multiple modalities, including Speech, Text and Vision. GAAM integrates learnable mean and variance into its attention mechanism, implemented in a Multi-Headed framework enabling it to collectively model any Probability Distribution for dynamic recalibration of feature significance. This method demonstrates significant improvements, especially with highly non-stationary data, surpassing the state-of-the-art attention techniques in model performance (up to approximately +20% in accuracy) by identifying key elements within the feature space. GAAM's compatibility with dot-product-based attention models and relatively low number of parameters showcases its adaptability and potential to boost existing attention frameworks. Empirically, GAAM exhibits superior adaptability and efficacy across a diverse range of tasks, including emotion recognition in speech, image classification, and text classification, thereby establishing its robustness and versatility in handling multi-modal data. Furthermore, we introduce the Importance Factor (IF), a new learning-based metric that enhances the explainability of models trained with GAAM-based methods. Overall, GAAM represents an advancement towards development of better performing and more explainable attention models across multiple modalities.

The skeleton of a digital image is a compact representation of its topology, geometry, and scale. It has utility in many computer vision applications, such as image description, segmentation, and registration. However, skeletonization has only seen limited use in contemporary deep learning solutions. Most existing skeletonization algorithms are not differentiable, making it impossible to integrate them with gradient-based optimization. Compatible algorithms based on morphological operations and neural networks have been proposed, but their results often deviate from the geometry and topology of the true medial axis. This work introduces the first three-dimensional skeletonization algorithm that is both compatible with gradient-based optimization and preserves an object's topology. Our method is exclusively based on matrix additions and multiplications, convolutional operations, basic non-linear functions, and sampling from a uniform probability distribution, allowing it to be easily implemented in any major deep learning library. In benchmarking experiments, we prove the advantages of our skeletonization algorithm compared to non-differentiable, morphological, and neural-network-based baselines. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our algorithm by integrating it with two medical image processing applications that use gradient-based optimization: deep-learning-based blood vessel segmentation, and multimodal registration of the mandible in computed tomography and magnetic resonance images.

The field of multi-object tracking has recently seen a renewed interest in the good old schema of tracking-by-detection, as its simplicity and strong priors spare it from the complex design and painful babysitting of tracking-by-attention approaches. In view of this, we aim at extending tracking-by-detection to multi-modal settings, where a comprehensive cost has to be computed from heterogeneous information e.g., 2D motion cues, visual appearance, and pose estimates. More precisely, we follow a case study where a rough estimate of 3D information is also available and must be merged with other traditional metrics (e.g., the IoU). To achieve that, recent approaches resort to either simple rules or complex heuristics to balance the contribution of each cost. However, i) they require careful tuning of tailored hyperparameters on a hold-out set, and ii) they imply these costs to be independent, which does not hold in reality. We address these issues by building upon an elegant probabilistic formulation, which considers the cost of a candidate association as the negative log-likelihood yielded by a deep density estimator, trained to model the conditional joint probability distribution of correct associations. Our experiments, conducted on both simulated and real benchmarks, show that our approach consistently enhances the performance of several tracking-by-detection algorithms.

As Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are increasingly employed in diverse decision-making problems using reward preferences, it becomes important to ensure that policies learned by these frameworks in mapping observations to a probability distribution of the possible actions are explainable. However, there is little to no work in the systematic understanding of these complex policies in a contrastive manner, i.e., what minimal changes to the policy would improve/worsen its performance to a desired level. In this work, we present COUNTERPOL, the first framework to analyze RL policies using counterfactual explanations in the form of minimal changes to the policy that lead to the desired outcome. We do so by incorporating counterfactuals in supervised learning in RL with the target outcome regulated using desired return. We establish a theoretical connection between Counterpol and widely used trust region-based policy optimization methods in RL. Extensive empirical analysis shows the efficacy of COUNTERPOL in generating explanations for (un)learning skills while keeping close to the original policy. Our results on five different RL environments with diverse state and action spaces demonstrate the utility of counterfactual explanations, paving the way for new frontiers in designing and developing counterfactual policies.

Autonomous driving requires accurate local scene understanding information. To this end, autonomous agents deploy object detection and online BEV lane graph extraction methods as a part of their perception stack. In this work, we propose an architecture and loss formulation to improve the accuracy of local lane graph estimates by using 3D object detection outputs. The proposed method learns to assign the objects to centerlines by considering the centerlines as cluster centers and the objects as data points to be assigned a probability distribution over the cluster centers. This training scheme ensures direct supervision on the relationship between lanes and objects, thus leading to better performance. The proposed method improves lane graph estimation substantially over state-of-the-art methods. The extensive ablations show that our method can achieve significant performance improvements by using the outputs of existing 3D object detection methods. Since our method uses the detection outputs rather than detection method intermediate representations, a single model of our method can use any detection method at test time.

As the probability (and thus perplexity) of a text is calculated based on the product of the probabilities of individual tokens, it may happen that one unlikely token significantly reduces the probability (i.e., increase the perplexity) of some otherwise highly probable input, while potentially representing a simple typographical error. Also, given that perplexity is a scalar value that refers to the entire input, information about the probability distribution within it is lost in the calculation (a relatively good text that has one unlikely token and another text in which each token is equally likely they can have the same perplexity value), especially for longer texts. As an alternative to scalar perplexity this research proposes a simple algorithm used to calculate vector values based on n-gram perplexities within the input. Such representations consider the previously mentioned aspects, and instead of a unique value, the relative perplexity of each text token is calculated, and these values are combined into a single vector representing the input.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

Given a prefix (context), open-ended generation aims to decode texts that are coherent, which do not abruptly drift from previous topics, and informative, which do not suffer from undesired repetitions. In this paper, we propose Look-back, an improved decoding algorithm that leverages the Kullback-Leibler divergence to track the distribution distance between current and historical decoding steps. Thus Look-back can automatically predict potential repetitive phrase and topic drift, and remove tokens that may cause the failure modes, restricting the next token probability distribution within a plausible distance to the history. We perform decoding experiments on document continuation and story generation, and demonstrate that Look-back is able to generate more fluent and coherent text, outperforming other strong decoding methods significantly in both automatic and human evaluations.

Unsupervised learning of object-centric representations in dynamic visual scenes is challenging. Unlike most previous approaches that learn to decompose 2D images, we present DynaVol, a 3D scene generative model that unifies geometric structures and object-centric learning in a differentiable volume rendering framework. The key idea is to perform object-centric voxelization to capture the 3D nature of the scene, which infers the probability distribution over objects at individual spatial locations. These voxel features evolve over time through a canonical-space deformation function, forming the basis for global representation learning via slot attention. The voxel features and global features are complementary and are both leveraged by a compositional NeRF decoder for volume rendering. DynaVol remarkably outperforms existing approaches for unsupervised dynamic scene decomposition. Once trained, the explicitly meaningful voxel features enable additional capabilities that 2D scene decomposition methods cannot achieve: it is possible to freely edit the geometric shapes or manipulate the motion trajectories of the objects.

Humans possess a versatile mechanism for extracting structured representations of our visual world. When looking at an image, we can decompose the scene into entities and their parts as well as obtain the dependencies between them. To mimic such capability, we propose Visual Dependency Transformers (DependencyViT) that can induce visual dependencies without any labels. We achieve that with a novel neural operator called reversed attention that can naturally capture long-range visual dependencies between image patches. Specifically, we formulate it as a dependency graph where a child token in reversed attention is trained to attend to its parent tokens and send information following a normalized probability distribution rather than gathering information in conventional self-attention. With such a design, hierarchies naturally emerge from reversed attention layers, and a dependency tree is progressively induced from leaf nodes to the root node unsupervisedly. DependencyViT offers several appealing benefits. (i) Entities and their parts in an image are represented by different subtrees, enabling part partitioning from dependencies; (ii) Dynamic visual pooling is made possible. The leaf nodes which rarely send messages can be pruned without hindering the model performance, based on which we propose the lightweight DependencyViT-Lite to reduce the computational and memory footprints; (iii) DependencyViT works well on both self- and weakly-supervised pretraining paradigms on ImageNet, and demonstrates its effectiveness on 8 datasets and 5 tasks, such as unsupervised part and saliency segmentation, recognition, and detection.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

In this paper, we present a one-stage framework TriDet for temporal action detection. Existing methods often suffer from imprecise boundary predictions due to the ambiguous action boundaries in videos. To alleviate this problem, we propose a novel Trident-head to model the action boundary via an estimated relative probability distribution around the boundary. In the feature pyramid of TriDet, we propose an efficient Scalable-Granularity Perception (SGP) layer to mitigate the rank loss problem of self-attention that takes place in the video features and aggregate information across different temporal granularities. Benefiting from the Trident-head and the SGP-based feature pyramid, TriDet achieves state-of-the-art performance on three challenging benchmarks: THUMOS14, HACS and EPIC-KITCHEN 100, with lower computational costs, compared to previous methods. For example, TriDet hits an average mAP of 69.3% on THUMOS14, outperforming the previous best by 2.5%, but with only 74.6% of its latency. The code is released to https://github.com/sssste/TriDet.

With adversarial or otherwise normal prompts, existing large language models (LLM) can be pushed to generate toxic discourses. One way to reduce the risk of LLMs generating undesired discourses is to alter the training of the LLM. This can be very restrictive due to demanding computation requirements. Other methods rely on rule-based or prompt-based token elimination, which are limited as they dismiss future tokens and the overall meaning of the complete discourse. Here, we center detoxification on the probability that the finished discourse is ultimately considered toxic. That is, at each point, we advise against token selections proportional to how likely a finished text from this point will be toxic. To this end, we formally extend the dead-end theory from the recent reinforcement learning (RL) literature to also cover uncertain outcomes. Our approach, called rectification, utilizes a separate but significantly smaller model for detoxification, which can be applied to diverse LLMs as long as they share the same vocabulary. Importantly, our method does not require access to the internal representations of the LLM, but only the token probability distribution at each decoding step. This is crucial as many LLMs today are hosted in servers and only accessible through APIs. When applied to various LLMs, including GPT-3, our approach significantly improves the generated discourse compared to the base LLMs and other techniques in terms of both the overall language and detoxification performance.

Open World Object Detection (OWOD) is a new and challenging computer vision task that bridges the gap between classic object detection (OD) benchmarks and object detection in the real world. In addition to detecting and classifying seen/labeled objects, OWOD algorithms are expected to detect novel/unknown objects - which can be classified and incrementally learned. In standard OD, object proposals not overlapping with a labeled object are automatically classified as background. Therefore, simply applying OD methods to OWOD fails as unknown objects would be predicted as background. The challenge of detecting unknown objects stems from the lack of supervision in distinguishing unknown objects and background object proposals. Previous OWOD methods have attempted to overcome this issue by generating supervision using pseudo-labeling - however, unknown object detection has remained low. Probabilistic/generative models may provide a solution for this challenge. Herein, we introduce a novel probabilistic framework for objectness estimation, where we alternate between probability distribution estimation and objectness likelihood maximization of known objects in the embedded feature space - ultimately allowing us to estimate the objectness probability of different proposals. The resulting Probabilistic Objectness transformer-based open-world detector, PROB, integrates our framework into traditional object detection models, adapting them for the open-world setting. Comprehensive experiments on OWOD benchmarks show that PROB outperforms all existing OWOD methods in both unknown object detection (sim 2times unknown recall) and known object detection (sim 10% mAP). Our code will be made available upon publication at https://github.com/orrzohar/PROB.

Sampling proper negatives from a large document pool is vital to effectively train a dense retrieval model. However, existing negative sampling strategies suffer from the uninformative or false negative problem. In this work, we empirically show that according to the measured relevance scores, the negatives ranked around the positives are generally more informative and less likely to be false negatives. Intuitively, these negatives are not too hard (may be false negatives) or too easy (uninformative). They are the ambiguous negatives and need more attention during training. Thus, we propose a simple ambiguous negatives sampling method, SimANS, which incorporates a new sampling probability distribution to sample more ambiguous negatives. Extensive experiments on four public and one industry datasets show the effectiveness of our approach. We made the code and models publicly available in https://github.com/microsoft/SimXNS.

Dance requires skillful composition of complex movements that follow rhythmic, tonal and timbral features of music. Formally, generating dance conditioned on a piece of music can be expressed as a problem of modelling a high-dimensional continuous motion signal, conditioned on an audio signal. In this work we make two contributions to tackle this problem. First, we present a novel probabilistic autoregressive architecture that models the distribution over future poses with a normalizing flow conditioned on previous poses as well as music context, using a multimodal transformer encoder. Second, we introduce the currently largest 3D dance-motion dataset, obtained with a variety of motion-capture technologies, and including both professional and casual dancers. Using this dataset, we compare our new model against two baselines, via objective metrics and a user study, and show that both the ability to model a probability distribution, as well as being able to attend over a large motion and music context are necessary to produce interesting, diverse, and realistic dance that matches the music.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Fuzz testing, or "fuzzing," refers to a widely deployed class of techniques for testing programs by generating a set of inputs for the express purpose of finding bugs and identifying security flaws. Grey-box fuzzing, the most popular fuzzing strategy, combines light program instrumentation with a data driven process to generate new program inputs. In this work, we present a machine learning approach that builds on AFL, the preeminent grey-box fuzzer, by adaptively learning a probability distribution over its mutation operators on a program-specific basis. These operators, which are selected uniformly at random in AFL and mutational fuzzers in general, dictate how new inputs are generated, a core part of the fuzzer's efficacy. Our main contributions are two-fold: First, we show that a sampling distribution over mutation operators estimated from training programs can significantly improve performance of AFL. Second, we introduce a Thompson Sampling, bandit-based optimization approach that fine-tunes the mutator distribution adaptively, during the course of fuzzing an individual program. A set of experiments across complex programs demonstrates that tuning the mutational operator distribution generates sets of inputs that yield significantly higher code coverage and finds more crashes faster and more reliably than both baseline versions of AFL as well as other AFL-based learning approaches.

Orientation is a key attribute of objects, crucial for understanding their spatial pose and arrangement in images. However, practical solutions for accurate orientation estimation from a single image remain underexplored. In this work, we introduce Orient Anything, the first expert and foundational model designed to estimate object orientation in a single- and free-view image. Due to the scarcity of labeled data, we propose extracting knowledge from the 3D world. By developing a pipeline to annotate the front face of 3D objects and render images from random views, we collect 2M images with precise orientation annotations. To fully leverage the dataset, we design a robust training objective that models the 3D orientation as probability distributions of three angles and predicts the object orientation by fitting these distributions. Besides, we employ several strategies to improve synthetic-to-real transfer. Our model achieves state-of-the-art orientation estimation accuracy in both rendered and real images and exhibits impressive zero-shot ability in various scenarios. More importantly, our model enhances many applications, such as comprehension and generation of complex spatial concepts and 3D object pose adjustment.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

Recent advances in language modeling consist in pretraining highly parameterized neural networks on extremely large web-mined text corpora. Training and inference with such models can be costly in practice, which incentivizes the use of smaller counterparts. However, it has been observed that smaller models can suffer from saturation, characterized as a drop in performance at some advanced point in training followed by a plateau. In this paper, we find that such saturation can be explained by a mismatch between the hidden dimension of smaller models and the high rank of the target contextual probability distribution. This mismatch affects the performance of the linear prediction head used in such models through the well-known softmax bottleneck phenomenon. We measure the effect of the softmax bottleneck in various settings and find that models based on less than 1000 hidden dimensions tend to adopt degenerate latent representations in late pretraining, which leads to reduced evaluation performance.

Large language models, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, have demonstrated exceptional language understanding capabilities in various NLP tasks. Sparsely activated mixture-of-experts (MoE) has emerged as a promising solution for scaling models while maintaining a constant number of computational operations. Existing MoE model adopts a fixed gating network where each token is computed by the same number of experts. However, this approach contradicts our intuition that the tokens in each sequence vary in terms of their linguistic complexity and, consequently, require different computational costs. Little is discussed in prior research on the trade-off between computation per token and model performance. This paper introduces adaptive gating in MoE, a flexible training strategy that allows tokens to be processed by a variable number of experts based on expert probability distribution. The proposed framework preserves sparsity while improving training efficiency. Additionally, curriculum learning is leveraged to further reduce training time. Extensive experiments on diverse NLP tasks show that adaptive gating reduces at most 22.5% training time while maintaining inference quality. Moreover, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the routing decisions and present our insights when adaptive gating is used.

Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries - including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment - correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware approach, enables uncertainty estimation in a single forward pass, making it a promising method for calibrating fine-tuned LLMs. However, despite its computational efficiency, EDL is prone to overfitting, as its training objective can result in overly concentrated probability distributions. To mitigate this, we propose regularizing EDL by incorporating an information bottleneck (IB). Our approach IB-EDL suppresses spurious information in the evidence generated by the model and encourages truly predictive information to influence both the predictions and uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments across various fine-tuned LLMs and tasks demonstrate that IB-EDL outperforms both existing EDL and non-EDL approaches. By improving the trustworthiness of LLMs, IB-EDL facilitates their broader adoption in domains requiring high levels of confidence calibration. Code is available at https://github.com/sandylaker/ib-edl.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

Large Language Models achieve next-token prediction by transporting a vectorized piece of text (prompt) across an accompanying embedding space under the action of successive transformer layers. The resulting high-dimensional trajectories realize different contextualization, or 'thinking', steps, and fully determine the output probability distribution. We aim to characterize the statistical properties of ensembles of these 'lines of thought.' We observe that independent trajectories cluster along a low-dimensional, non-Euclidean manifold, and that their path can be well approximated by a stochastic equation with few parameters extracted from data. We find it remarkable that the vast complexity of such large models can be reduced to a much simpler form, and we reflect on implications.

Recovering camera poses from a set of images is a foundational task in 3D computer vision, which powers key applications such as 3D scene/object reconstructions. Classic methods often depend on feature correspondence, such as keypoints, which require the input images to have large overlap and small viewpoint changes. Such requirements present considerable challenges in scenarios with sparse views. Recent data-driven approaches aim to directly output camera poses, either through regressing the 6DoF camera poses or formulating rotation as a probability distribution. However, each approach has its limitations. On one hand, directly regressing the camera poses can be ill-posed, since it assumes a single mode, which is not true under symmetry and leads to sub-optimal solutions. On the other hand, probabilistic approaches are capable of modeling the symmetry ambiguity, yet they sample the entire space of rotation uniformly by brute-force. This leads to an inevitable trade-off between high sample density, which improves model precision, and sample efficiency that determines the runtime. In this paper, we propose ADen to unify the two frameworks by employing a generator and a discriminator: the generator is trained to output multiple hypotheses of 6DoF camera pose to represent a distribution and handle multi-mode ambiguity, and the discriminator is trained to identify the hypothesis that best explains the data. This allows ADen to combine the best of both worlds, achieving substantially higher precision as well as lower runtime than previous methods in empirical evaluations.

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based Self-Explainable Neural Networks (PSENNs), whose predictions rely on the similarity between the input at hand and a set of prototypical representations of the output classes, offering therefore a deep, yet transparent-by-design, architecture. So far, such models have been designed by considering pointwise estimates for the prototypes, which remain fixed after the learning phase of the model. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reformulation of PSENNs, called Prob-PSENN, which replaces point estimates for the prototypes with probability distributions over their values. This provides not only a more flexible framework for an end-to-end learning of prototypes, but can also capture the explanatory uncertainty of the model, which is a missing feature in previous approaches. In addition, since the prototypes determine both the explanation and the prediction, Prob-PSENNs allow us to detect when the model is making uninformed or uncertain predictions, and to obtain valid explanations for them. Our experiments demonstrate that Prob-PSENNs provide more meaningful and robust explanations than their non-probabilistic counterparts, thus enhancing the explainability and reliability of the models.

Large Language Models (LLMs), benefiting from the auto-regressive modelling approach performed on massive unannotated texts corpora, demonstrates powerful perceptual and reasoning capabilities. However, as for extending auto-regressive modelling to multi-modal scenarios to build Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs), there lies a great difficulty that the image information is processed in the LMM as continuous visual embeddings, which cannot obtain discrete supervised labels for classification. In this paper, we successfully perform multi-modal auto-regressive modeling with a unified objective for the first time. Specifically, we propose the concept of visual words, which maps the visual features to probability distributions over LLM's vocabulary, providing supervision information for visual modelling. We further explore the distribution of visual features in the semantic space within LMM and the possibility of using text embeddings to represent visual information. Experimental results and ablation studies on 5 VQA tasks and 4 benchmark toolkits validate the powerful performance of our proposed approach.

Prompt learning has emerged as a valuable technique in enhancing vision-language models (VLMs) such as CLIP for downstream tasks in specific domains. Existing work mainly focuses on designing various learning forms of prompts, neglecting the potential of prompts as effective distillers for learning from larger teacher models. In this paper, we introduce an unsupervised domain prompt distillation framework, which aims to transfer the knowledge of a larger teacher model to a lightweight target model through prompt-driven imitation using unlabeled domain images. Specifically, our framework consists of two distinct stages. In the initial stage, we pre-train a large CLIP teacher model using domain (few-shot) labels. After pre-training, we leverage the unique decoupled-modality characteristics of CLIP by pre-computing and storing the text features as class vectors only once through the teacher text encoder. In the subsequent stage, the stored class vectors are shared across teacher and student image encoders for calculating the predicted logits. Further, we align the logits of both the teacher and student models via KL divergence, encouraging the student image encoder to generate similar probability distributions to the teacher through the learnable prompts. The proposed prompt distillation process eliminates the reliance on labeled data, enabling the algorithm to leverage a vast amount of unlabeled images within the domain. Finally, the well-trained student image encoders and pre-stored text features (class vectors) are utilized for inference. To our best knowledge, we are the first to (1) perform unsupervised domain-specific prompt-driven knowledge distillation for CLIP, and (2) establish a practical pre-storing mechanism of text features as shared class vectors between teacher and student. Extensive experiments on 11 datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

We consider the block coordinate descent methods of Gauss-Seidel type with proximal regularization (BCD-PR), which is a classical method of minimizing general nonconvex objectives under constraints that has a wide range of practical applications. We theoretically establish the worst-case complexity bound for this algorithm. Namely, we show that for general nonconvex smooth objectives with block-wise constraints, the classical BCD-PR algorithm converges to an epsilon-stationary point within O(1/epsilon) iterations. Under a mild condition, this result still holds even if the algorithm is executed inexactly in each step. As an application, we propose a provable and efficient algorithm for `Wasserstein CP-dictionary learning', which seeks a set of elementary probability distributions that can well-approximate a given set of d-dimensional joint probability distributions. Our algorithm is a version of BCD-PR that operates in the dual space, where the primal problem is regularized both entropically and proximally.

We generalise an existing construction of Bayesian Lenses to admit lenses between pairs of objects where the backwards object is dependent on states on the forwards object (interpreted as probability distributions). This gives a natural setting for studying stochastic maps with Bayesian inverses restricted to the points supported by a given prior. In order to state this formally we develop a proposed definition by Fritz of a support object in a Markov category and show that these give rise to a section into the category of dependent Bayesian lenses encoding a more canonical notion of Bayesian inversion.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

We combine beam search with the probabilistic pruning technique of nucleus sampling to create two deterministic nucleus search algorithms for natural language generation. The first algorithm, p-exact search, locally prunes the next-token distribution and performs an exact search over the remaining space. The second algorithm, dynamic beam search, shrinks and expands the beam size according to the entropy of the candidate's probability distribution. Despite the probabilistic intuition behind nucleus search, experiments on machine translation and summarization benchmarks show that both algorithms reach the same performance levels as standard beam search.

Convolution is a broadly useful operation with applications including signal processing, machine learning, probability, optics, polynomial multiplication, and efficient parsing. Usually, however, this operation is understood and implemented in more specialized forms, hiding commonalities and limiting usefulness. This paper formulates convolution in the common algebraic framework of semirings and semimodules and populates that framework with various representation types. One of those types is the grand abstract template and itself generalizes to the free semimodule monad. Other representations serve varied uses and performance trade-offs, with implementations calculated from simple and regular specifications. Of particular interest is Brzozowski's method for regular expression matching. Uncovering the method's essence frees it from syntactic manipulations, while generalizing from boolean to weighted membership (such as multisets and probability distributions) and from sets to n-ary relations. The classic trie data structure then provides an elegant and efficient alternative to syntax. Pleasantly, polynomial arithmetic requires no additional implementation effort, works correctly with a variety of representations, and handles multivariate polynomials and power series with ease. Image convolution also falls out as a special case.

We introduce the category of information structures, whose objects are suitable diagrams of measurable sets that encode the possible outputs of a given family of observables and their mutual relationships of refinement; they serve as mathematical models of contextuality in classical and quantum settings. Each information structure can be regarded as a ringed site with trivial topology; the structure ring is generated by the observables themselves and its multiplication corresponds to joint measurement. We extend Baudot and Bennequin's definition of information cohomology to this setting, as a derived functor in the category of modules over the structure ring, and show explicitly that the bar construction gives a projective resolution in that category, recovering in this way the cochain complexes previously considered in the literature. Finally, we study the particular case of a one-parameter family of coefficients made of functions of probability distributions. The only 1-cocycles are Shannon entropy or Tsallis alpha-entropy, depending on the value of the parameter.

Pre-Training (PT) of text representations has been successfully applied to low-resource Neural Machine Translation (NMT). However, it usually fails to achieve notable gains (sometimes, even worse) on resource-rich NMT on par with its Random-Initialization (RI) counterpart. We take the first step to investigate the complementarity between PT and RI in resource-rich scenarios via two probing analyses, and find that: 1) PT improves NOT the accuracy, but the generalization by achieving flatter loss landscapes than that of RI; 2) PT improves NOT the confidence of lexical choice, but the negative diversity by assigning smoother lexical probability distributions than that of RI. Based on these insights, we propose to combine their complementarities with a model fusion algorithm that utilizes optimal transport to align neurons between PT and RI. Experiments on two resource-rich translation benchmarks, WMT'17 English-Chinese (20M) and WMT'19 English-German (36M), show that PT and RI could be nicely complementary to each other, achieving substantial improvements considering both translation accuracy, generalization, and negative diversity. Probing tools and code are released at: https://github.com/zanchangtong/PTvsRI.

Recently, deep learning-based language models have significantly enhanced text-to-SQL tasks, with promising applications in retrieving patient records within the medical domain. One notable challenge in such applications is discerning unanswerable queries. Through fine-tuning model, we demonstrate the feasibility of converting medical record inquiries into SQL queries. Additionally, we introduce an entropy-based method to identify and filter out unanswerable results. We further enhance result quality by filtering low-confidence SQL through log probability-based distribution, while grammatical and schema errors are mitigated by executing queries on the actual database. We experimentally verified that our method can filter unanswerable questions, which can be widely utilized even when the parameters of the model are not accessible, and that it can be effectively utilized in practice.

Discrete diffusion or flow models could enable faster and more controllable sequence generation than autoregressive models. We show that na\"ive linear flow matching on the simplex is insufficient toward this goal since it suffers from discontinuities in the training target and further pathologies. To overcome this, we develop Dirichlet flow matching on the simplex based on mixtures of Dirichlet distributions as probability paths. In this framework, we derive a connection between the mixtures' scores and the flow's vector field that allows for classifier and classifier-free guidance. Further, we provide distilled Dirichlet flow matching, which enables one-step sequence generation with minimal performance hits, resulting in O(L) speedups compared to autoregressive models. On complex DNA sequence generation tasks, we demonstrate superior performance compared to all baselines in distributional metrics and in achieving desired design targets for generated sequences. Finally, we show that our classifier-free guidance approach improves unconditional generation and is effective for generating DNA that satisfies design targets. Code is available at https://github.com/HannesStark/dirichlet-flow-matching.

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a weight sharing scheme inspired from restricted Boltzmann machines, to yield an estimator that is both tractable and has good generalization performance. We discuss how they achieve competitive performance in modeling both binary and real-valued observations. We also present how deep NADE models can be trained to be agnostic to the ordering of input dimensions used by the autoregressive product rule decomposition. Finally, we also show how to exploit the topological structure of pixels in images using a deep convolutional architecture for NADE.

Most of the existing Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection algorithms depend on single input source: the feature, the logit, or the softmax probability. However, the immense diversity of the OOD examples makes such methods fragile. There are OOD samples that are easy to identify in the feature space while hard to distinguish in the logit space and vice versa. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel OOD scoring method named Virtual-logit Matching (ViM), which combines the class-agnostic score from feature space and the In-Distribution (ID) class-dependent logits. Specifically, an additional logit representing the virtual OOD class is generated from the residual of the feature against the principal space, and then matched with the original logits by a constant scaling. The probability of this virtual logit after softmax is the indicator of OOD-ness. To facilitate the evaluation of large-scale OOD detection in academia, we create a new OOD dataset for ImageNet-1K, which is human-annotated and is 8.8x the size of existing datasets. We conducted extensive experiments, including CNNs and vision transformers, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ViM score. In particular, using the BiT-S model, our method gets an average AUROC 90.91% on four difficult OOD benchmarks, which is 4% ahead of the best baseline. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/haoqiwang/vim.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Max sliced Wasserstein (Max-SW) distance has been widely known as a solution for less discriminative projections of sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance. In applications that have various independent pairs of probability measures, amortized projection optimization is utilized to predict the ``max" projecting directions given two input measures instead of using projected gradient ascent multiple times. Despite being efficient, Max-SW and its amortized version cannot guarantee metricity property due to the sub-optimality of the projected gradient ascent and the amortization gap. Therefore, we propose to replace Max-SW with distributional sliced Wasserstein distance with von Mises-Fisher (vMF) projecting distribution (v-DSW). Since v-DSW is a metric with any non-degenerate vMF distribution, its amortized version can guarantee the metricity when performing amortization. Furthermore, current amortized models are not permutation invariant and symmetric. To address the issue, we design amortized models based on self-attention architecture. In particular, we adopt efficient self-attention architectures to make the computation linear in the number of supports. With the two improvements, we derive self-attention amortized distributional projection optimization and show its appealing performance in point-cloud reconstruction and its downstream applications.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants have become increasingly popular for aligning language models with human preferences. These methods aim to teach models to better distinguish between chosen (or preferred) and rejected (or dispreferred) responses. However, prior research has identified that the probability of chosen responses often decreases during training, and this phenomenon is known as likelihood displacement. To tackle this challenge, in this work we introduce \method to controllably shift the distribution of the chosen probability. Then, we show that \method exhibits a fundamental trade-off between improving the chosen probability and sacrificing the reward margin, as supported by both theoretical analysis and experimental validation. Furthermore, we demonstrate the superiority of \method over DPO on downstream tasks such as MT-Bench and a designed win rate experiment. We believe this study shows that the likelihood displacement issue of DPO can be effectively mitigated with a simple, theoretically grounded solution. Our code is available at https://github.com/Meaquadddd/DPO-Shift.

Determining whether inputs are out-of-distribution (OOD) is an essential building block for safely deploying machine learning models in the open world. However, previous methods relying on the softmax confidence score suffer from overconfident posterior distributions for OOD data. We propose a unified framework for OOD detection that uses an energy score. We show that energy scores better distinguish in- and out-of-distribution samples than the traditional approach using the softmax scores. Unlike softmax confidence scores, energy scores are theoretically aligned with the probability density of the inputs and are less susceptible to the overconfidence issue. Within this framework, energy can be flexibly used as a scoring function for any pre-trained neural classifier as well as a trainable cost function to shape the energy surface explicitly for OOD detection. On a CIFAR-10 pre-trained WideResNet, using the energy score reduces the average FPR (at TPR 95%) by 18.03% compared to the softmax confidence score. With energy-based training, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art on common benchmarks.

A recourse action aims to explain a particular algorithmic decision by showing one specific way in which the instance could be modified to receive an alternate outcome. Existing recourse generation methods often assume that the machine learning model does not change over time. However, this assumption does not always hold in practice because of data distribution shifts, and in this case, the recourse action may become invalid. To redress this shortcoming, we propose the Distributionally Robust Recourse Action (DiRRAc) framework, which generates a recourse action that has a high probability of being valid under a mixture of model shifts. We formulate the robustified recourse setup as a min-max optimization problem, where the max problem is specified by Gelbrich distance over an ambiguity set around the distribution of model parameters. Then we suggest a projected gradient descent algorithm to find a robust recourse according to the min-max objective. We show that our DiRRAc framework can be extended to hedge against the misspecification of the mixture weights. Numerical experiments with both synthetic and three real-world datasets demonstrate the benefits of our proposed framework over state-of-the-art recourse methods.

We rigorously quantify the improvement in the sample complexity of variational divergence estimations for group-invariant distributions. In the cases of the Wasserstein-1 metric and the Lipschitz-regularized alpha-divergences, the reduction of sample complexity is proportional to an ambient-dimension-dependent power of the group size. For the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), the improvement of sample complexity is more nuanced, as it depends on not only the group size but also the choice of kernel. Numerical simulations verify our theories.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

The task of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is notoriously ill-defined. Earlier works focused on new-class detection, aiming to identify label-altering data distribution shifts, also known as "semantic shift." However, recent works argue for a focus on failure detection, expanding the OOD evaluation framework to account for label-preserving data distribution shifts, also known as "covariate shift." Intriguingly, under this new framework, complex OOD detectors that were previously considered state-of-the-art now perform similarly to, or even worse than the simple maximum softmax probability baseline. This raises the question: what are the latest OOD detectors actually detecting? Deciphering the behavior of OOD detection algorithms requires evaluation datasets that decouples semantic shift and covariate shift. To aid our investigations, we present ImageNet-OOD, a clean semantic shift dataset that minimizes the interference of covariate shift. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that OOD detectors are more sensitive to covariate shift than to semantic shift, and the benefits of recent OOD detection algorithms on semantic shift detection is minimal. Our dataset and analyses provide important insights for guiding the design of future OOD detectors.

Failure of machine learning models to generalize to new data is a core problem limiting the reliability of AI systems, partly due to the lack of simple and robust methods for comparing new data to the original training dataset. We propose a standardized approach for assessing data similarity in a model-agnostic manner by constructing a supervised autoencoder for generalizability estimation (SAGE). We compare points in a low-dimensional embedded latent space, defining empirical probability measures for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) distance, reconstruction of inputs and task-based performance. As proof of concept for classification tasks, we use MNIST and CIFAR-10 to demonstrate how an ensemble output probability score can separate deformed images from a mixture of typical test examples, and how this SAGE score is robust to transformations of increasing severity. As further proof of concept, we extend this approach to a regression task using non-imaging data (UCI Abalone). In all cases, we show that out-of-the-box model performance increases after SAGE score filtering, even when applied to data from the model's own training and test datasets. Our out-of-distribution scoring method can be introduced during several steps of model construction and assessment, leading to future improvements in responsible deep learning implementation.

Multi-modal Emotion Recognition in Conversation (MERC) has received considerable attention in various fields, e.g., human-computer interaction and recommendation systems. Most existing works perform feature disentanglement and fusion to extract emotional contextual information from multi-modal features and emotion classification. After revisiting the characteristic of MERC, we argue that long-range contextual semantic information should be extracted in the feature disentanglement stage and the inter-modal semantic information consistency should be maximized in the feature fusion stage. Inspired by recent State Space Models (SSMs), Mamba can efficiently model long-distance dependencies. Therefore, in this work, we fully consider the above insights to further improve the performance of MERC. Specifically, on the one hand, in the feature disentanglement stage, we propose a Broad Mamba, which does not rely on a self-attention mechanism for sequence modeling, but uses state space models to compress emotional representation, and utilizes broad learning systems to explore the potential data distribution in broad space. Different from previous SSMs, we design a bidirectional SSM convolution to extract global context information. On the other hand, we design a multi-modal fusion strategy based on probability guidance to maximize the consistency of information between modalities. Experimental results show that the proposed method can overcome the computational and memory limitations of Transformer when modeling long-distance contexts, and has great potential to become a next-generation general architecture in MERC.

Existing Score-Based Models (SBMs) can be categorized into constrained SBMs (CSBMs) or unconstrained SBMs (USBMs) according to their parameterization approaches. CSBMs model probability density functions as Boltzmann distributions, and assign their predictions as the negative gradients of some scalar-valued energy functions. On the other hand, USBMs employ flexible architectures capable of directly estimating scores without the need to explicitly model energy functions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the architectural constraints of CSBMs may limit their modeling ability. In addition, we show that USBMs' inability to preserve the property of conservativeness may lead to degraded performance in practice. To address the above issues, we propose Quasi-Conservative Score-Based Models (QCSBMs) for keeping the advantages of both CSBMs and USBMs. Our theoretical derivations demonstrate that the training objective of QCSBMs can be efficiently integrated into the training processes by leveraging the Hutchinson's trace estimator. In addition, our experimental results on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and SVHN datasets validate the effectiveness of QCSBMs. Finally, we justify the advantage of QCSBMs using an example of a one-layered autoencoder.

The increasing population of objects in geostationary orbit has raised concerns about the potential risks posed by debris clouds resulting from fragmentation. The short-term evolution and associated hazards of debris generated by collisions in the geostationary region is investigated in this study. The initial distribution of two debris clouds is modeled using a single probability density function.The combined distribution of the evolved clouds is determined by solving boundary value problems.The risks associated with these debris clouds are evaluated by calculating the instantaneous impact rate and cumulative collision probability.The probability of collisions with millimeter-sized fragments may increase to 1% within 36 hours, while the probability of collisions with fragments 5 cm or larger is approximately 10^{-5}.These findings underscore the vulnerability of the geostationary region to space traffic accidents.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Learning from preference labels plays a crucial role in fine-tuning large language models. There are several distinct approaches for preference fine-tuning, including supervised learning, on-policy reinforcement learning (RL), and contrastive learning. Different methods come with different implementation tradeoffs and performance differences, and existing empirical findings present different conclusions, for instance, some results show that online RL is quite important to attain good fine-tuning results, while others find (offline) contrastive or even purely supervised methods sufficient. This raises a natural question: what kind of approaches are important for fine-tuning with preference data and why? In this paper, we answer this question by performing a rigorous analysis of a number of fine-tuning techniques on didactic and full-scale LLM problems. Our main finding is that, in general, approaches that use on-policy sampling or attempt to push down the likelihood on certain responses (i.e., employ a "negative gradient") outperform offline and maximum likelihood objectives. We conceptualize our insights and unify methods that use on-policy sampling or negative gradient under a notion of mode-seeking objectives for categorical distributions. Mode-seeking objectives are able to alter probability mass on specific bins of a categorical distribution at a fast rate compared to maximum likelihood, allowing them to relocate masses across bins more effectively. Our analysis prescribes actionable insights for preference fine-tuning of LLMs and informs how data should be collected for maximal improvement.

Recent advancements in generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality content from context information, but a key question remains: how to teach models to know when to generate content? To answer this question, this study proposes a novel event generative model that draws its statistical intuition from marked temporal point processes, and offers a clean, flexible, and computationally efficient solution for a wide range of applications involving multi-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of the point process without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples, as well as considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

Mixture models are traditionally represented and learned by adding several distributions as components. Allowing mixtures to subtract probability mass or density can drastically reduce the number of components needed to model complex distributions. However, learning such subtractive mixtures while ensuring they still encode a non-negative function is challenging. We investigate how to learn and perform inference on deep subtractive mixtures by squaring them. We do this in the framework of probabilistic circuits, which enable us to represent tensorized mixtures and generalize several other subtractive models. We theoretically prove that the class of squared circuits allowing subtractions can be exponentially more expressive than traditional additive mixtures; and, we empirically show this increased expressiveness on a series of real-world distribution estimation tasks.

This paper presents Model-guidance (MG), a novel objective for training diffusion model that addresses and removes of the commonly used Classifier-free guidance (CFG). Our innovative approach transcends the standard modeling of solely data distribution to incorporating the posterior probability of conditions. The proposed technique originates from the idea of CFG and is easy yet effective, making it a plug-and-play module for existing models. Our method significantly accelerates the training process, doubles the inference speed, and achieve exceptional quality that parallel and even surpass concurrent diffusion models with CFG. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, scalability on different models and datasets. Finally, we establish state-of-the-art performance on ImageNet 256 benchmarks with an FID of 1.34. Our code is available at https://github.com/tzco/Diffusion-wo-CFG.

Despite the improved accuracy of deep neural networks, the discovery of adversarial examples has raised serious safety concerns. Most existing approaches for crafting adversarial examples necessitate some knowledge (architecture, parameters, etc.) of the network at hand. In this paper, we focus on image classifiers and propose a feature-guided black-box approach to test the safety of deep neural networks that requires no such knowledge. Our algorithm employs object detection techniques such as SIFT (Scale Invariant Feature Transform) to extract features from an image. These features are converted into a mutable saliency distribution, where high probability is assigned to pixels that affect the composition of the image with respect to the human visual system. We formulate the crafting of adversarial examples as a two-player turn-based stochastic game, where the first player's objective is to minimise the distance to an adversarial example by manipulating the features, and the second player can be cooperative, adversarial, or random. We show that, theoretically, the two-player game can con- verge to the optimal strategy, and that the optimal strategy represents a globally minimal adversarial image. For Lipschitz networks, we also identify conditions that provide safety guarantees that no adversarial examples exist. Using Monte Carlo tree search we gradually explore the game state space to search for adversarial examples. Our experiments show that, despite the black-box setting, manipulations guided by a perception-based saliency distribution are competitive with state-of-the-art methods that rely on white-box saliency matrices or sophisticated optimization procedures. Finally, we show how our method can be used to evaluate robustness of neural networks in safety-critical applications such as traffic sign recognition in self-driving cars.

Straightening the probability flow of the continuous-time generative models, such as diffusion models or flow-based models, is the key to fast sampling through the numerical solvers, existing methods learn a linear path by directly generating the probability path the joint distribution between the noise and data distribution. One key reason for the slow sampling speed of the ODE-based solvers that simulate these generative models is the global truncation error of the ODE solver, caused by the high curvature of the ODE trajectory, which explodes the truncation error of the numerical solvers in the low-NFE regime. To address this challenge, We propose a novel method called SeqRF, a learning technique that straightens the probability flow to reduce the global truncation error and hence enable acceleration of sampling and improve the synthesis quality. In both theoretical and empirical studies, we first observe the straightening property of our SeqRF. Through empirical evaluations via SeqRF over flow-based generative models, We achieve surpassing results on CIFAR-10, CelebA-64 times 64, and LSUN-Church datasets.

Since large language models have approached human-level performance on many tasks, it has become increasingly harder for researchers to find tasks that are still challenging to the models. Failure cases usually come from the long-tail distribution - data that an oracle language model could assign a probability on the lower end of its distribution. Current methodology such as prompt engineering or crowdsourcing are insufficient for creating long-tail examples because humans are constrained by cognitive bias. We propose a Logic-Induced-Knowledge-Search (LINK) framework for systematically generating long-tail knowledge statements. Grounded by a symbolic rule, we search for long-tail values for each variable of the rule by first prompting a LLM, then verifying the correctness of the values with a critic, and lastly pushing for the long-tail distribution with a reranker. With this framework we construct a dataset, Logic-Induced-Long-Tail (LINT), consisting of 200 symbolic rules and 50K knowledge statements spanning across four domains. Human annotations find that 84% of the statements in LINT are factually correct. In contrast, ChatGPT and GPT4 struggle with directly generating long-tail statements under the guidance of logic rules, each only getting 56% and 78% of their statements correct. Moreover, their "long-tail" generations in fact fall into the higher likelihood range, and thus are not really long-tail. Our findings suggest that LINK is effective for generating data in the long-tail distribution while enforcing quality. LINT can be useful for systematically evaluating LLMs' capabilities in the long-tail distribution. We challenge the models with a simple entailment classification task using samples from LINT. We find that ChatGPT and GPT4's capability in identifying incorrect knowledge drop by ~3% in the long-tail distribution compared to head distribution.

Audio super-resolution is challenging owing to its ill-posed nature. Recently, the application of diffusion models in audio super-resolution has shown promising results in alleviating this challenge. However, diffusion-based models have limitations, primarily the necessity for numerous sampling steps, which causes significantly increased latency when synthesizing high-quality audio samples. In this paper, we propose FLowHigh, a novel approach that integrates flow matching, a highly efficient generative model, into audio super-resolution. We also explore probability paths specially tailored for audio super-resolution, which effectively capture high-resolution audio distributions, thereby enhancing reconstruction quality. The proposed method generates high-fidelity, high-resolution audio through a single-step sampling process across various input sampling rates. The experimental results on the VCTK benchmark dataset demonstrate that FLowHigh achieves state-of-the-art performance in audio super-resolution, as evaluated by log-spectral distance and ViSQOL while maintaining computational efficiency with only a single-step sampling process.

Feed-forward layers constitute two-thirds of a transformer model's parameters, yet their role in the network remains under-explored. We show that feed-forward layers in transformer-based language models operate as key-value memories, where each key correlates with textual patterns in the training examples, and each value induces a distribution over the output vocabulary. Our experiments show that the learned patterns are human-interpretable, and that lower layers tend to capture shallow patterns, while upper layers learn more semantic ones. The values complement the keys' input patterns by inducing output distributions that concentrate probability mass on tokens likely to appear immediately after each pattern, particularly in the upper layers. Finally, we demonstrate that the output of a feed-forward layer is a composition of its memories, which is subsequently refined throughout the model's layers via residual connections to produce the final output distribution.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

Simulation-free methods for training continuous-time generative models construct probability paths that go between noise distributions and individual data samples. Recent works, such as Flow Matching, derived paths that are optimal for each data sample. However, these algorithms rely on independent data and noise samples, and do not exploit underlying structure in the data distribution for constructing probability paths. We propose Multisample Flow Matching, a more general framework that uses non-trivial couplings between data and noise samples while satisfying the correct marginal constraints. At very small overhead costs, this generalization allows us to (i) reduce gradient variance during training, (ii) obtain straighter flows for the learned vector field, which allows us to generate high-quality samples using fewer function evaluations, and (iii) obtain transport maps with lower cost in high dimensions, which has applications beyond generative modeling. Importantly, we do so in a completely simulation-free manner with a simple minimization objective. We show that our proposed methods improve sample consistency on downsampled ImageNet data sets, and lead to better low-cost sample generation.

We propose nabla-RANSAC, a generalized differentiable RANSAC that allows learning the entire randomized robust estimation pipeline. The proposed approach enables the use of relaxation techniques for estimating the gradients in the sampling distribution, which are then propagated through a differentiable solver. The trainable quality function marginalizes over the scores from all the models estimated within nabla-RANSAC to guide the network learning accurate and useful inlier probabilities or to train feature detection and matching networks. Our method directly maximizes the probability of drawing a good hypothesis, allowing us to learn better sampling distribution. We test nabla-RANSAC on a number of real-world scenarios on fundamental and essential matrix estimation, both outdoors and indoors, with handcrafted and learning-based features. It is superior to the state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy while running at a similar speed to its less accurate alternatives. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/weitong8591/differentiable_ransac.

It is common to reject undesired outputs of Large Language Models (LLMs); however, current methods to do so require an excessive amount of computation, or severely distort the distribution of outputs. We present a method to balance the distortion of the output distribution with computational efficiency, allowing for the generation of long sequences of text with difficult-to-satisfy constraints, with less amplification of low probability outputs compared to existing methods. We show through a series of experiments that the task-specific performance of our method is comparable to methods that do not distort the output distribution, while being much more computationally efficient.

Knowledge distillation (KD) has been shown to be highly effective in guiding a student model with a larger teacher model and achieving practical benefits in improving the computational and memory efficiency for large language models (LLMs). State-of-the-art KD methods for LLMs mostly rely on minimizing explicit distribution distance between teacher and student probability predictions. Instead of optimizing these mandatory behaviour cloning objectives, we explore an imitation learning strategy for KD of LLMs. In particular, we minimize the imitation gap by matching the action-value moments of the teacher's behavior from both on- and off-policy perspectives. To achieve this action-value moment-matching goal, we propose an adversarial training algorithm to jointly estimate the moment-matching distance and optimize the student policy to minimize it. Results from both task-agnostic instruction-following experiments and task-specific experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and achieve new state-of-the-art performance.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

Despite Flow Matching and diffusion models having emerged as powerful generative paradigms for continuous variables such as images and videos, their application to high-dimensional discrete data, such as language, is still limited. In this work, we present Discrete Flow Matching, a novel discrete flow paradigm designed specifically for generating discrete data. Discrete Flow Matching offers several key contributions: (i) it works with a general family of probability paths interpolating between source and target distributions; (ii) it allows for a generic formula for sampling from these probability paths using learned posteriors such as the probability denoiser (x-prediction) and noise-prediction (epsilon-prediction); (iii) practically, focusing on specific probability paths defined with different schedulers considerably improves generative perplexity compared to previous discrete diffusion and flow models; and (iv) by scaling Discrete Flow Matching models up to 1.7B parameters, we reach 6.7% Pass@1 and 13.4% Pass@10 on HumanEval and 6.7% Pass@1 and 20.6% Pass@10 on 1-shot MBPP coding benchmarks. Our approach is capable of generating high-quality discrete data in a non-autoregressive fashion, significantly closing the gap between autoregressive models and discrete flow models.

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Based on the weight-sharing mechanism, one-shot NAS methods train a supernet and then inherit the pre-trained weights to evaluate sub-models, largely reducing the search cost. However, several works have pointed out that the shared weights suffer from different gradient descent directions during training. And we further find that large gradient variance occurs during supernet training, which degrades the supernet ranking consistency. To mitigate this issue, we propose to explicitly minimize the gradient variance of the supernet training by jointly optimizing the sampling distributions of PAth and DAta (PA&DA). We theoretically derive the relationship between the gradient variance and the sampling distributions, and reveal that the optimal sampling probability is proportional to the normalized gradient norm of path and training data. Hence, we use the normalized gradient norm as the importance indicator for path and training data, and adopt an importance sampling strategy for the supernet training. Our method only requires negligible computation cost for optimizing the sampling distributions of path and data, but achieves lower gradient variance during supernet training and better generalization performance for the supernet, resulting in a more consistent NAS. We conduct comprehensive comparisons with other improved approaches in various search spaces. Results show that our method surpasses others with more reliable ranking performance and higher accuracy of searched architectures, showing the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/ShunLu91/PA-DA.

The problem of pre-training data detection for large language models (LLMs) has received growing attention due to its implications in critical issues like copyright violation and test data contamination. The current state-of-the-art approach, Min-K%, measures the raw token probability which we argue may not be the most informative signal. Instead, we propose Min-K%++ to normalize the token probability with statistics of the categorical distribution over the whole vocabulary, which accurately reflects the relative likelihood of the target token compared with other candidate tokens in the vocabulary. Theoretically, we back up our method by showing that the statistic it estimates is explicitly optimized during LLM training, thus serving as a reliable indicator for detecting training data. Empirically, on the WikiMIA benchmark, Min-K%++ outperforms the SOTA Min-K% by 6.2% to 10.5% in detection AUROC averaged over five models. On the more challenging MIMIR benchmark, Min-K%++ consistently improves upon Min-K% and performs on par with reference-based method, despite not requiring an extra reference model.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Currently, pre-trained models can be considered the default choice for a wide range of NLP tasks. Despite their SoTA results, there is practical evidence that these models may require a different number of computing layers for different input sequences, since evaluating all layers leads to overconfidence in wrong predictions (namely overthinking). This problem can potentially be solved by implementing adaptive computation time approaches, which were first designed to improve inference speed. Recently proposed PonderNet may be a promising solution for performing an early exit by treating the exit layer's index as a latent variable. However, the originally proposed exit criterion, relying on sampling from trained posterior distribution on the probability of exiting from the i-th layer, introduces major variance in exit layer indices, significantly reducing the resulting model's performance. In this paper, we propose improving PonderNet with a novel deterministic Q-exit criterion and a revisited model architecture. We adapted the proposed mechanism to ALBERT and RoBERTa and compared it with recent methods for performing an early exit. We observed that the proposed changes can be considered significant improvements on the original PonderNet architecture and outperform PABEE on a wide range of GLUE tasks. In addition, we also performed an in-depth ablation study of the proposed architecture to further understand Lambda layers and their performance.

Peptides, short chains of amino acid residues, play a vital role in numerous biological processes by interacting with other target molecules, offering substantial potential in drug discovery. In this work, we present PepFlow, the first multi-modal deep generative model grounded in the flow-matching framework for the design of full-atom peptides that target specific protein receptors. Drawing inspiration from the crucial roles of residue backbone orientations and side-chain dynamics in protein-peptide interactions, we characterize the peptide structure using rigid backbone frames within the SE(3) manifold and side-chain angles on high-dimensional tori. Furthermore, we represent discrete residue types in the peptide sequence as categorical distributions on the probability simplex. By learning the joint distributions of each modality using derived flows and vector fields on corresponding manifolds, our method excels in the fine-grained design of full-atom peptides. Harnessing the multi-modal paradigm, our approach adeptly tackles various tasks such as fix-backbone sequence design and side-chain packing through partial sampling. Through meticulously crafted experiments, we demonstrate that PepFlow exhibits superior performance in comprehensive benchmarks, highlighting its significant potential in computational peptide design and analysis.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

High-quality supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data are crucial for eliciting strong capabilities from pretrained large language models (LLMs). Typically, instructions are paired with multiple responses sampled from other LLMs, which are often out of the distribution of the target model to be fine-tuned. This, at scale, can lead to diminishing returns and even hurt the models' performance and robustness. We propose **GRAPE**, a novel SFT framework that accounts for the unique characteristics of the target model. For each instruction, it gathers responses from various LLMs and selects the one with the highest probability measured by the target model, indicating that it aligns most closely with the target model's pretrained distribution; it then proceeds with standard SFT training. We first evaluate GRAPE with a controlled experiment, where we sample various solutions for each question in UltraInteract from multiple models and fine-tune commonly used LMs like LLaMA3.1-8B, Mistral-7B, and Qwen2.5-7B on GRAPE-selected data. GRAPE significantly outperforms strong baselines, including distilling from the strongest model with an absolute gain of up to 13.8%, averaged across benchmarks, and training on 3x more data with a maximum performance improvement of 17.3%. GRAPE's strong performance generalizes to realistic settings. We experiment with the post-training data used for Tulu3 and Olmo-2. GRAPE outperforms strong baselines trained on 4.5 times more data by 6.1% and a state-of-the-art data selection approach by 3% on average performance. Remarkably, using 1/3 of the data and half the number of epochs, GRAPE enables LLaMA3.1-8B to surpass the performance of Tulu3-SFT by 3.5%.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown stellar achievements in solving a broad range of tasks. When generating text, it is common to sample tokens from these models: whether LLMs closely align with the human disagreement distribution has not been well-studied, especially within the scope of Natural Language Inference (NLI). In this paper, we evaluate the performance and alignment of LLM distribution with humans using two different techniques: Monte Carlo Reconstruction (MCR) and Log Probability Reconstruction (LPR). As a result, we show LLMs exhibit limited ability in solving NLI tasks and simultaneously fail to capture human disagreement distribution, raising concerns about their natural language understanding (NLU) ability and their representativeness of human users.

Abstractive summarization models are commonly trained using maximum likelihood estimation, which assumes a deterministic (one-point) target distribution in which an ideal model will assign all the probability mass to the reference summary. This assumption may lead to performance degradation during inference, where the model needs to compare several system-generated (candidate) summaries that have deviated from the reference summary. To address this problem, we propose a novel training paradigm which assumes a non-deterministic distribution so that different candidate summaries are assigned probability mass according to their quality. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art result on the CNN/DailyMail (47.78 ROUGE-1) and XSum (49.07 ROUGE-1) datasets. Further analysis also shows that our model can estimate probabilities of candidate summaries that are more correlated with their level of quality.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

One of the most striking findings in modern research on large language models (LLMs) is that scaling up compute during training leads to better results. However, less attention has been given to the benefits of scaling compute during inference. This survey focuses on these inference-time approaches. We explore three areas under a unified mathematical formalism: token-level generation algorithms, meta-generation algorithms, and efficient generation. Token-level generation algorithms, often called decoding algorithms, operate by sampling a single token at a time or constructing a token-level search space and then selecting an output. These methods typically assume access to a language model's logits, next-token distributions, or probability scores. Meta-generation algorithms work on partial or full sequences, incorporating domain knowledge, enabling backtracking, and integrating external information. Efficient generation methods aim to reduce token costs and improve the speed of generation. Our survey unifies perspectives from three research communities: traditional natural language processing, modern LLMs, and machine learning systems.

The present work explores the theoretical limits of Machine Learning (ML) within the framework of Kolmogorov's theory of Algorithmic Probability, which clarifies the notion of entropy as Expected Kolmogorov Complexity and formalizes other fundamental concepts such as Occam's razor via Levin's Universal Distribution. As a fundamental application, we develop Maximum Entropy methods that allow us to derive the Erdos--Kac Law in Probabilistic Number Theory, and establish the impossibility of discovering a formula for primes using Machine Learning via the Prime Coding Theorem.

We consider incorporating topic information into the sequence-to-sequence framework to generate informative and interesting responses for chatbots. To this end, we propose a topic aware sequence-to-sequence (TA-Seq2Seq) model. The model utilizes topics to simulate prior knowledge of human that guides them to form informative and interesting responses in conversation, and leverages the topic information in generation by a joint attention mechanism and a biased generation probability. The joint attention mechanism summarizes the hidden vectors of an input message as context vectors by message attention, synthesizes topic vectors by topic attention from the topic words of the message obtained from a pre-trained LDA model, and let these vectors jointly affect the generation of words in decoding. To increase the possibility of topic words appearing in responses, the model modifies the generation probability of topic words by adding an extra probability item to bias the overall distribution. Empirical study on both automatic evaluation metrics and human annotations shows that TA-Seq2Seq can generate more informative and interesting responses, and significantly outperform the-state-of-the-art response generation models.

We propose a new framework for estimating generative models via an adversarial process, in which we simultaneously train two models: a generative model G that captures the data distribution, and a discriminative model D that estimates the probability that a sample came from the training data rather than G. The training procedure for G is to maximize the probability of D making a mistake. This framework corresponds to a minimax two-player game. In the space of arbitrary functions G and D, a unique solution exists, with G recovering the training data distribution and D equal to 1/2 everywhere. In the case where G and D are defined by multilayer perceptrons, the entire system can be trained with backpropagation. There is no need for any Markov chains or unrolled approximate inference networks during either training or generation of samples. Experiments demonstrate the potential of the framework through qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the generated samples.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

We present a novel approach for identifying members of open star clusters using Gaia DR3 data by combining Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) techniques. Our method employs a three-step process: initial filtering based on astrometric parameters, MST analysis for spatial distribution filtering, and GMM for final membership probability determination. We tested this methodology on 12+1 open clusters of varying ages, distances, and richness. The method demonstrates superior performance in distinguishing cluster members from field stars, particularly in regions with overlapping populations, as evidenced by its application to clusters like NGC 7790. By effectively reducing the number of probable field stars through MST analysis before applying GMM, our approach enhances both computational efficiency and membership determination accuracy. The results show strong agreement with previous studies while offering improved precision in member identification. This method provides a robust framework for analyzing the extensive datasets provided by Gaia DR3, addressing the challenges of processing large-scale astronomical data while maintaining high accuracy in cluster membership determination.

While implicit feedback is foundational to modern recommender systems, factors such as human error, uncertainty, and ambiguity in user behavior inevitably introduce significant noise into this feedback, adversely affecting the accuracy and robustness of recommendations. To address this issue, existing methods typically aim to reduce the training weight of noisy feedback or discard it entirely, based on the observation that noisy interactions often exhibit higher losses in the overall loss distribution. However, we identify two key issues: (1) there is a significant overlap between normal and noisy interactions in the overall loss distribution, and (2) this overlap becomes even more pronounced when transitioning from pointwise loss functions (e.g., BCE loss) to pairwise loss functions (e.g., BPR loss). This overlap leads traditional methods to misclassify noisy interactions as normal, and vice versa. To tackle these challenges, we further investigate the loss overlap and find that for a given user, there is a clear distinction between normal and noisy interactions in the user's personal loss distribution. Based on this insight, we propose a resampling strategy to Denoise using the user's Personal Loss distribution, named PLD, which reduces the probability of noisy interactions being optimized. Specifically, during each optimization iteration, we create a candidate item pool for each user and resample the items from this pool based on the user's personal loss distribution, prioritizing normal interactions. Additionally, we conduct a theoretical analysis to validate PLD's effectiveness and suggest ways to further enhance its performance. Extensive experiments conducted on three datasets with varying noise ratios demonstrate PLD's efficacy and robustness.

Recent research on query generation has focused on using Large Language Models (LLMs), which despite bringing state-of-the-art performance, also introduce issues with hallucinations in the generated queries. In this work, we introduce relevance hallucination and factuality hallucination as a new typology for hallucination problems brought by query generation based on LLMs. We propose an effective way to separate content from form in LLM-generated queries, which preserves the factual knowledge extracted and integrated from the inputs and compiles the syntactic structure, including function words, using the powerful linguistic capabilities of the LLM. Specifically, we introduce a model-agnostic and training-free method that turns the Large Language Model into a Pointer-Generator (LargePiG), where the pointer attention distribution leverages the LLM's inherent attention weights, and the copy probability is derived from the difference between the vocabulary distribution of the model's high layers and the last layer. To validate the effectiveness of LargePiG, we constructed two datasets for assessing the hallucination problems in query generation, covering both document and video scenarios. Empirical studies on various LLMs demonstrated the superiority of LargePiG on both datasets. Additional experiments also verified that LargePiG could reduce hallucination in large vision language models and improve the accuracy of document-based question-answering and factuality evaluation tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle with reliably generating highly structured outputs, such as program code, mathematical formulas, or well-formed markup. Constrained decoding approaches mitigate this problem by greedily restricting what tokens an LLM can output at each step to guarantee that the output matches a given constraint. Specifically, in grammar-constrained decoding (GCD), the LLM's output must follow a given grammar. In this paper, we demonstrate that GCD techniques (and in general constrained decoding techniques) can distort the LLM's distribution, leading to outputs that are grammatical but appear with likelihoods that are not proportional to the ones given by the LLM, and so ultimately are low-quality. We call the problem of aligning sampling with a grammar constraint, grammar-aligned decoding (GAD), and propose adaptive sampling with approximate expected futures (ASAp), a decoding algorithm that guarantees the output to be grammatical while provably producing outputs that match the conditional probability of the LLM's distribution conditioned on the given grammar constraint. Our algorithm uses prior sample outputs to soundly overapproximate the future grammaticality of different output prefixes. Our evaluation on code generation and structured NLP tasks shows how ASAp often produces outputs with higher likelihood (according to the LLM's distribution) than existing GCD techniques, while still enforcing the desired grammatical constraints.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via either Monte Carlo or expectation-maximization methods. In this work we introduce an alternative, variational inference algorithm for Markov jump processes which relies on neural ordinary differential equations, and is trainable via back-propagation. Our methodology learns neural, continuous-time representations of the observed data, that are used to approximate the initial distribution and time-dependent transition probability rates of the posterior Markov jump process. The time-independent rates of the prior process are in contrast trained akin to generative adversarial networks. We test our approach on synthetic data sampled from ground-truth Markov jump processes, experimental switching ion channel data and molecular dynamics simulations. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

Designing biological sequences is an important challenge that requires satisfying complex constraints and thus is a natural problem to address with deep generative modeling. Diffusion generative models have achieved considerable success in many applications. Score-based generative stochastic differential equations (SDE) model is a continuous-time diffusion model framework that enjoys many benefits, but the originally proposed SDEs are not naturally designed for modeling discrete data. To develop generative SDE models for discrete data such as biological sequences, here we introduce a diffusion process defined in the probability simplex space with stationary distribution being the Dirichlet distribution. This makes diffusion in continuous space natural for modeling discrete data. We refer to this approach as Dirchlet diffusion score model. We demonstrate that this technique can generate samples that satisfy hard constraints using a Sudoku generation task. This generative model can also solve Sudoku, including hard puzzles, without additional training. Finally, we applied this approach to develop the first human promoter DNA sequence design model and showed that designed sequences share similar properties with natural promoter sequences.

Because anomalous samples cannot be used for training, many anomaly detection and localization methods use pre-trained networks and non-parametric modeling to estimate encoded feature distribution. However, these methods neglect the impact of position and neighborhood information on the distribution of normal features. To overcome this, we propose a new algorithm, PNI, which estimates the normal distribution using conditional probability given neighborhood features, modeled with a multi-layer perceptron network. Moreover, position information is utilized by creating a histogram of representative features at each position. Instead of simply resizing the anomaly map, the proposed method employs an additional refine network trained on synthetic anomaly images to better interpolate and account for the shape and edge of the input image. We conducted experiments on the MVTec AD benchmark dataset and achieved state-of-the-art performance, with 99.56\% and 98.98\% AUROC scores in anomaly detection and localization, respectively.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) is a promising technique for reducing the high computational demand of large language models (LLMs). However, previous KD methods are primarily applied to white-box classification models or training small models to imitate black-box model APIs like ChatGPT. How to effectively distill the knowledge from white-box generative LLMs is still under-explored, which becomes more and more important with the prosperity of LLMs. In this work, we propose MiniLLM that distills smaller language models from generative larger language models. We first replace the forward Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) objective in the standard KD approaches with reverse KLD, which is more suitable for KD on generative language models, to prevent the student model from overestimating the low-probability regions of the teacher distribution. Then, we derive an effective optimization approach to learn this objective. Extensive experiments in the instruction-following setting show that the MiniLLM models generate more precise responses with the higher overall quality, lower exposure bias, better calibration, and higher long-text generation performance. Our method is also scalable for different model families with 120M to 13B parameters. We will release our code and model checkpoints at https://aka.ms/MiniLLM.

This paper establishes a mathematical foundation for the Adam optimizer, elucidating its connection to natural gradient descent through Riemannian and information geometry. We rigorously analyze the diagonal empirical Fisher information matrix (FIM) in Adam, clarifying all detailed approximations and advocating for the use of log probability functions as loss, which should be based on discrete distributions, due to the limitations of empirical FIM. Our analysis uncovers flaws in the original Adam algorithm, leading to proposed corrections such as enhanced momentum calculations, adjusted bias corrections, and gradient clipping. We refine the weight decay term based on our theoretical framework. Our modified algorithm, Fisher Adam (FAdam), demonstrates superior performance across diverse domains including LLM, ASR, and VQ-VAE, achieving state-of-the-art results in ASR.

While neural networks are used for classification tasks across domains, a long-standing open problem in machine learning is determining whether neural networks trained using standard procedures are optimal for classification, i.e., whether such models minimize the probability of misclassification for arbitrary data distributions. In this work, we identify and construct an explicit set of neural network classifiers that achieve optimality. Since effective neural networks in practice are typically both wide and deep, we analyze infinitely wide networks that are also infinitely deep. In particular, using the recent connection between infinitely wide neural networks and Neural Tangent Kernels, we provide explicit activation functions that can be used to construct networks that achieve optimality. Interestingly, these activation functions are simple and easy to implement, yet differ from commonly used activations such as ReLU or sigmoid. More generally, we create a taxonomy of infinitely wide and deep networks and show that these models implement one of three well-known classifiers depending on the activation function used: (1) 1-nearest neighbor (model predictions are given by the label of the nearest training example); (2) majority vote (model predictions are given by the label of the class with greatest representation in the training set); or (3) singular kernel classifiers (a set of classifiers containing those that achieve optimality). Our results highlight the benefit of using deep networks for classification tasks, in contrast to regression tasks, where excessive depth is harmful.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are becoming a crucial component of modern software systems, but they are prone to fail under conditions that are different from the ones observed during training (out-of-distribution inputs) or on inputs that are truly ambiguous, i.e., inputs that admit multiple classes with nonzero probability in their ground truth labels. Recent work proposed DNN supervisors to detect high-uncertainty inputs before their possible misclassification leads to any harm. To test and compare the capabilities of DNN supervisors, researchers proposed test generation techniques, to focus the testing effort on high-uncertainty inputs that should be recognized as anomalous by supervisors. However, existing test generators can only produce out-of-distribution inputs. No existing model- and supervisor-independent technique supports the generation of truly ambiguous test inputs. In this paper, we propose a novel way to generate ambiguous inputs to test DNN supervisors and used it to empirically compare several existing supervisor techniques. In particular, we propose AmbiGuess to generate ambiguous samples for image classification problems. AmbiGuess is based on gradient-guided sampling in the latent space of a regularized adversarial autoencoder. Moreover, we conducted what is - to the best of our knowledge - the most extensive comparative study of DNN supervisors, considering their capabilities to detect 4 distinct types of high-uncertainty inputs, including truly ambiguous ones.

Label smoothing (LS) is a popular regularisation method for training deep neural network classifiers due to its effectiveness in improving test accuracy and its simplicity in implementation. "Hard" one-hot labels are "smoothed" by uniformly distributing probability mass to other classes, reducing overfitting. In this work, we reveal that LS negatively affects selective classification (SC) - where the aim is to reject misclassifications using a model's predictive uncertainty. We first demonstrate empirically across a range of tasks and architectures that LS leads to a consistent degradation in SC. We then explain this by analysing logit-level gradients, showing that LS exacerbates overconfidence and underconfidence by regularising the max logit more when the probability of error is low, and less when the probability of error is high. This elucidates previously reported experimental results where strong classifiers underperform in SC. We then demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of logit normalisation for recovering lost SC performance caused by LS. Furthermore, based on our gradient analysis, we explain why such normalisation is effective. We will release our code shortly.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

In this work, we build on recent advances in distributional reinforcement learning to give a generally applicable, flexible, and state-of-the-art distributional variant of DQN. We achieve this by using quantile regression to approximate the full quantile function for the state-action return distribution. By reparameterizing a distribution over the sample space, this yields an implicitly defined return distribution and gives rise to a large class of risk-sensitive policies. We demonstrate improved performance on the 57 Atari 2600 games in the ALE, and use our algorithm's implicitly defined distributions to study the effects of risk-sensitive policies in Atari games.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Major advancements have been made in the field of object detection and segmentation recently. However, when it comes to rare categories, the state-of-the-art methods fail to detect them, resulting in a significant performance gap between rare and frequent categories. In this paper, we identify that Sigmoid or Softmax functions used in deep detectors are a major reason for low performance and are sub-optimal for long-tailed detection and segmentation. To address this, we develop a Gumbel Optimized Loss (GOL), for long-tailed detection and segmentation. It aligns with the Gumbel distribution of rare classes in imbalanced datasets, considering the fact that most classes in long-tailed detection have low expected probability. The proposed GOL significantly outperforms the best state-of-the-art method by 1.1% on AP , and boosts the overall segmentation by 9.0% and detection by 8.0%, particularly improving detection of rare classes by 20.3%, compared to Mask-RCNN, on LVIS dataset. Code available at: https://github.com/kostas1515/GOL

Quantum digital signatures (QDS), generating correlated bit strings among three remote parties for signatures through quantum law, can guarantee non-repudiation, authenticity, and integrity of messages. Recently, one-time universal hashing QDS framework, exploiting the quantum asymmetric encryption and universal hash functions, has been proposed to significantly improve the signature rate and ensure unconditional security by directly signing the hash value of long messages. However, similar to quantum key distribution, this framework utilizes keys with perfect secrecy by performing privacy amplification that introduces cumbersome matrix operations, thereby consuming large computational resources, causing delays and increasing failure probability. Here, we prove that, different from private communication, imperfect quantum keys with limited information leakage can be used for digital signatures and authentication without compromising the security while having eight orders of magnitude improvement on signature rate for signing a megabit message compared with conventional single-bit schemes. This study significantly reduces the delay for data postprocessing and is compatible with any quantum key generation protocols. In our simulation, taking two-photon twin-field key generation protocol as an example, QDS can be practically implemented over a fiber distance of 650 km between the signer and receiver. For the first time, this study offers a cryptographic application of quantum keys with imperfect secrecy and paves a way for the practical and agile implementation of digital signatures in a future quantum network.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

During 2023, two interesting results were proven about the limit behavior of game dynamics: First, it was shown that there is a game for which no dynamics converges to the Nash equilibria. Second, it was shown that the sink equilibria of a game adequately capture the limit behavior of natural game dynamics. These two results have created a need and opportunity to articulate a principled computational theory of the meaning of the game that is based on game dynamics. Given any game in normal form, and any prior distribution of play, we study the problem of computing the asymptotic behavior of a class of natural dynamics called the noisy replicator dynamics as a limit distribution over the sink equilibria of the game. When the prior distribution has pure strategy support, we prove this distribution can be computed efficiently, in near-linear time to the size of the best-response graph. When the distribution can be sampled -- for example, if it is the uniform distribution over all mixed strategy profiles -- we show through experiments that the limit distribution of reasonably large games can be estimated quite accurately through sampling and simulation.

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependent Type Systems (PDTS) via a functional language based on a subsystem of intuitionistic type theory including dependent sums and products, which is expanded to include stochastic functions. We provide a sampling-based semantics for the language based on non-deterministic beta reduction. Further, we derive a probabilistic logic from the PDTS introduced as a direct result of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. The probabilistic logic derived is shown to provide a universal representation for finite discrete distributions.

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

Zipf's law appears in many application areas but does not have a closed form expression, which may make its use cumbersome. Since it coincides with the truncated version of the Zeta distribution, in this paper we propose three approximate closed form expressions for the truncated Zeta distribution, which may be employed for Zipf's law as well. The three approximations are based on the replacement of the sum occurring in Zipf's law with an integral, and are named respectively the integral approximation, the average integral approximation, and the trapezoidal approximation. While the first one is shown to be of little use, the trapezoidal approximation exhibits an error which is typically lower than 1\%, but is as low as 0.1\% for the range of values of the Zipf parameter below 1.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Distribution inference, sometimes called property inference, infers statistical properties about a training set from access to a model trained on that data. Distribution inference attacks can pose serious risks when models are trained on private data, but are difficult to distinguish from the intrinsic purpose of statistical machine learning -- namely, to produce models that capture statistical properties about a distribution. Motivated by Yeom et al.'s membership inference framework, we propose a formal definition of distribution inference attacks that is general enough to describe a broad class of attacks distinguishing between possible training distributions. We show how our definition captures previous ratio-based property inference attacks as well as new kinds of attack including revealing the average node degree or clustering coefficient of a training graph. To understand distribution inference risks, we introduce a metric that quantifies observed leakage by relating it to the leakage that would occur if samples from the training distribution were provided directly to the adversary. We report on a series of experiments across a range of different distributions using both novel black-box attacks and improved versions of the state-of-the-art white-box attacks. Our results show that inexpensive attacks are often as effective as expensive meta-classifier attacks, and that there are surprising asymmetries in the effectiveness of attacks. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/FormEstDistRisks

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

This paper presents a brief, semi-technical comparison of the essential features of the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference, with several illustrative examples implemented in Python. The differences between frequentism and Bayesianism fundamentally stem from differing definitions of probability, a philosophical divide which leads to distinct approaches to the solution of statistical problems as well as contrasting ways of asking and answering questions about unknown parameters. After an example-driven discussion of these differences, we briefly compare several leading Python statistical packages which implement frequentist inference using classical methods and Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.